科林研發 (LRCX) 2018 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Lam Research September 2017 conference call.

大家好，歡迎參加 Lam Research 2017 年 9 月電話會議。

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Satya Kumar, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

此時，我謹將會議交給投資人關係副總裁薩蒂亞‧庫馬爾先生。請繼續。

Yes. Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to the Lam Research quarterly earnings conference call. With me today are Martin Anstice, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Doug Bettinger, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

是的。謝謝大家，大家下午好。歡迎參加Lam Research季度財報電話會議。今天陪同我出席的有總裁兼執行長馬丁·安斯蒂斯，以及執行副總裁兼財務長道格·貝廷格。

During today's call, we will share our outlook on the business environment, review our financial results for the September 2017 quarter and our outlook for the December 2017 quarter.

在今天的電話會議上，我們將分享我們對商業環境的展望，回顧我們 2017 年 9 月季度的財務業績以及我們對 2017 年 12 月季度的展望。

The press release detailing our financial results was distributed a little after 1:00 p.m. Pacific Time this afternoon. It can also be found on the Investor Relations section of the company's website, along with the presentation slides that accompany today's call.

詳細介紹我們財務表現的新聞稿已於下午 1 點剛過發布。太平洋時間今天下午。也可以在公司網站的投資者關係部分找到，以及今天電話會議的簡報。

Today's presentation and Q&A includes forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties reflected in the risk factor disclosures of our SEC public filings. Please see the accompanying slide in the presentation for additional information.

今天的演示和問答環節包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到風險和不確定性的影響，這些風險和不確定性已反映在我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的公開文件中的風險因素披露中。更多資訊請參閱簡報中的配套幻燈片。

Today's discussion of our financial results will be presented on a non-GAAP financial basis, unless otherwise specified. A detailed reconciliation between the GAAP and non-GAAP results can be found in today's earnings press release.

除非另有說明，我們今天對財務表現的討論將以非公認會計準則（non-GAAP）為基礎。今天的盈利新聞稿中提供了 GAAP 和非 GAAP 結果之間的詳細調整表。

This call is scheduled to last until 3:00 p.m. Pacific Time. And as always, we ask that you limit yourself to one question per firm and a brief follow-up so that we can accommodate as many questions as possible. As a reminder, the replay of this call will be available later this afternoon on our website.

本次通話預計持續到下午3點。太平洋時間。像往常一樣，我們要求您每家公司只提一個問題，並附上簡短的後續問題，以便我們可以回答盡可能多的問題。再次提醒大家，本次電話會議的錄音將於今天下午稍晚在我們的網站上提供。

With that, let me hand the call over to Martin.

那麼，我把電話交給馬丁吧。

Thank you, Satya, and thank you all for joining us this afternoon. Lam delivered another outstanding quarter, with September shipments, revenue and gross margins above the midpoint of our guidance range and operating margins and EPS above the high end of our guidance range. I'd like to thank our employees, our suppliers and our customers for their active support and confidence in Lam. With enhanced opportunity, we have enhanced responsibility to contribute to the success of our customers and, in that context, we are inspired to achieve our full potential.

謝謝你，薩蒂亞，也謝謝各位今天下午蒞臨。Lam 又取得了一項出色的季度業績，9 月份的出貨量、收入和毛利率均高於我們預期範圍的中點，而營業利潤率和每股收益則高於我們預期範圍的上限。我要感謝我們的員工、供應商和客戶對林先生的積極支持和信任。隨著機會的增加，我們也肩負更大的責任，要為客戶的成功做出貢獻。正是在這種背景下，我們受到鼓舞，力求充分發揮我們的潛力。

Calendar 2017 appears destined to be another terrific year of outperformance for Lam, a year that materially exceeded the expectations we had communicated at the beginning of the year for levels of demand-driven customer CapEx and our business as a direct result. The midpoint of our December quarter shipment guidance today reflects growth of approximately 50% year-over-year, nearly double the consensus growth expectations for WFE in 2017 and putting us on track to gain over 2.5 percentage points of shipped share of WFE in the calendar year. Based on our internal analytics, we continue to expect a strong industry spending environment once again in 2018 and essentially align to stated industry consensus at this time.

2017 年對 Lam 來說似乎注定是另一個業績斐然的年份，這一年遠遠超出了我們在年初就需求驅動型客戶資本支出水平以及我們業務所作出的預期。我們今天發布的 12 月季度出貨量預期中位數反映了同比增長約 50%，幾乎是 2017 年 WFE 市場普遍預期增長的兩倍，這將使我們預計在日曆年內獲得超過 2.5 個百分點的 WFE 出貨份額。根據我們的內部分析，我們仍然預計 2018 年行業支出環境將再次強勁，並且與目前行業普遍的共識基本一致。

We believe there are enduring drivers behind the sustainability of industry spending levels and our outperformance. Central to the argument on spending sustainability is the growing importance of data and the fundamental role that the road map of silicon is playing. We are entering a new innovation era.

我們認為，產業支出水準的可持續性和我們優異的業績背後存在著持久的驅動因素。關於支出可持續性的爭論核心在於數據的重要性日益增長，以及矽谷發展路線圖所扮演的根本角色。我們正進入一個全新的創新時代。

Central to the position of Lam outperformance is the increasing scope of industry relevance and competitiveness in the Lam product portfolio today. The generation, transmission, storage and analysis of increasing quantities of data to create artificial intelligence has the potential to transform every segment of the economy, and we believe Lam Research is positioned comprehensively to capitalize on that trend.

Lam 表現優異的關鍵在於其產品組合在產業相關性和競爭力方面不斷提升。人工智慧的誕生、傳輸、儲存和分析，以及由此產生的大量數據，有可能改變經濟的各個領域，我們相信 Lam Research 已做好充分準備，能夠充分利用這一趨勢。

The last decade saw the transition from a PC-centric to a mobile-centric world. We expect the next decade is defined by a transition to an AI-centric world. Mobile devices have enabled an incredible platform of almost 4 billion global smartphone users, which allows for the rapid delivery and scaling of new AI-enabled services on a growing array of IoT devices and systems. Together, these trends are resulting in semiconductor industry revenue growth rates accelerating from an average of just over 2% in the last 6 years to over 15% in 2017. Even more important than revenue and profit growth, a dramatic diversification in end-use demand bodes well for our future.

過去十年見證了世界從以個人電腦為中心轉向以行動裝置為中心的轉變。我們預計未來十年將以向人工智慧中心世界轉型為特徵。行動裝置已經催生了一個擁有近 40 億全球智慧型手機用戶的龐大平台，這使得在不斷增長的物聯網設備和系統上快速交付和擴展新的人工智慧服務成為可能。這些趨勢共同導致半導體產業的收入成長率從過去 6 年平均略高於 2% 加速到 2017 年超過 15%。比營收和利潤成長更重要的是，終端用戶需求的顯著多元化預示著我們美好的未來。

The critical role of data in this market transition is particularly positive for memory and storage semiconductor demand in the cloud and also IoT. This is strength and opportunity both for Lam. Cloud computing is a foundation for extremely data-intensive applications, which is driving strong demand for bit growth in server DRAM and NAND of over 30% and 50%, respectively. For IoT devices, we are in early stages of adoption of exciting new technologies like 3D cameras, AR and VR, and broad automation trends. This is driving over 40% demand bit growth in these NAND markets.

數據在市場轉型中發揮著至關重要的作用，這對雲端運算和物聯網領域的記憶體和儲存半導體需求尤其有利。這對蘭姆來說既是優勢也是機會。雲端運算是資料密集型應用的基礎，這推動了伺服器 DRAM 和 NAND 的位元需求分別成長超過 30% 和 50%。對於物聯網設備，我們正處於採用令人興奮的新技術（如 3D 攝影機、AR 和 VR）以及廣泛的自動化趨勢的早期階段。這推動了這些 NAND 市場需求量成長超過 40%。

Combined, these demand trends and disciplined investment by our customers are driving record revenues in the memory semiconductor segment, which is on track to grow approximately 60% to about $130 billion in 2017, at strong levels of profitability. We see our customers increase their spending at sustainable and rational levels to respond to these long-term trends, with memory capital intensity slightly lower in 2017 when compared to the last 2 years.

綜合這些需求趨勢和我們客戶的審慎投資，正在推動儲存半導體領域創紀錄的收入，該領域預計在 2017 年增長約 60%，達到約 1300 億美元，並保持強勁的盈利能力。我們看到，為了因應這些長期趨勢，我們的客戶在可持續和合理的水平上增加了支出，與過去兩年相比，2017 年的記憶體資本密集度略有下降。

As we have stated previously, the products and services portfolio of Lam Research is unmatched, we believe, in its broad fit to the primary technology inflections of the industry. Our focus is to further increase this position of leadership and strategic relevance through a commitment to disruptive and customer-enabling technologies.

正如我們之前所說，Lam Research 的產品和服務組合是無與倫比的，我們相信，它與行業的主要技術變革高度契合。我們的目標是透過致力於顛覆性技術與客戶賦能技術，進一步提升我們的領導地位和策略相關性。

During our presentation at the recent Flash Memory Summit, we offered perspective that lithographic shrinks alone are no longer able to provide the device performance and cost improvements that are required to drive these megatrends in end demand. Logic devices require new solutions to deal with dark silicon and Dennard scaling limitations. DRAM devices require new solutions to deal with signal-to-noise scaling issues, and NAND devices require new solutions to deal with cell-to-cell interference and reliability.

在最近的快閃記憶體峰會上，我們發表了演講，指出僅靠光刻技術的縮小已經無法提供推動終端需求這些大趨勢所需的裝置性能和成本改進。邏輯裝置需要新的解決方案來應對暗矽和丹納德縮放限制。DRAM 裝置需要新的解決方案來應對訊號雜訊比縮放問題，而 NAND 裝置需要新的解決方案來應對單元間幹擾和可靠性問題。

Technology inflections such as vertical scaling, multi-patterning, advanced transistor and interconnect technologies, and advanced packaging are all critical in addressing these challenges to deliver necessary device performance improvements. These inflections are fundamentally enabled by etch, deposition and clean technologies, resulting in our served markets growing significantly faster than WFE again this year. We believe this trend is sustainable.

垂直縮放、多重圖案化、先進的電晶體和互連技術以及先進的封裝等技術變革，對於應對這些挑戰、實現必要的裝置性能改進至關重要。這些轉變從根本上得益於蝕刻、沉積和清潔技術，使得我們服務的市場今年再次以遠超 WFE 的速度成長。我們認為這種趨勢是可持續的。

Anticipating these and future inflections, we grew our R&D investments by nearly 60% in the last 4 years, reporting during the same period 140% growth in revenues. We continue to release significant capability enhancements across our portfolio, and we have the strongest commitment in our history to new concepts, technologies, products and services from R&D. These investments continue to pay off with significantly more wins and successful defenses than not this year. Calendar '17 is a stronger market share performance year for Lam than calendar '16. Although with SAM expansion, this tells less than half of our outperformance story.

為了因應這些以及未來的轉捩點，我們在過去 4 年中將研發投入增加了近 60%，同期營收成長了 140%。我們持續推出涵蓋我們所有產品的重大功能增強，並且我們對研發領域的新概念、新技術、新產品和服務投入了前所未有的力度。這些投資持續獲得回報，今年的勝場和防守成功次數都明顯多於敗選。與 2016 年相比，2017 年 Lam 的市佔率表現較佳。儘管 SAM 的擴張也只能說明我們超額報酬故事的一半不到。

In addition to maintaining our leadership position in vertical scaling in 3D NAND, we had several new wins during the quarter across the spectrum of DRAM, NAND and logic devices, and across the process flow in front-end transistor, middle of line as well as advanced interconnects.

除了在 3D NAND 垂直擴展領域保持領先地位外，本季我們在 DRAM、NAND 和邏輯裝置領域以及前端電晶體、中階製程和先進互連製程流程中都取得了多項新勝利。

In dielectric etch, we extended our momentum in critical transistor contact applications by delivering differentiated atomic layer etching solutions that resulted in a new PTOR position at a second leading foundry. We continued to maintain strong conductor etch positions with increasing adoption of advanced technology and productivity options on our Kiyo conductor etch products at leading-edge foundry and memory makers.

在介質蝕刻領域，我們透過提供差異化的原子層蝕刻解決方案，在關鍵晶體管接觸應用領域擴大了發展勢頭，從而在第二家領先的代工廠中獲得了新的 PTOR 地位。我們不斷在領先的晶圓代工廠和記憶體製造商中推廣先進技術和提高生產力的Kiyo導體蝕刻產品，從而保持了強大的導體蝕刻市場地位。

In deposition, we won PTOR position for advanced cobalt interconnect at a major foundry. We had multiple wins for new applications in atomic layer deposition for both dielectric and metal film applications for non-volatile memory devices.

在沉積方面，我們贏得了一家大型晶圓代工廠先進鈷互連的PTOR職位。我們在原子層沉積技術的新應用領域取得了多項成功，包括用於非揮發性記憶體元件的介電層和金屬薄膜應用。

To further expand our value proposition, we recently acquired Coventor, a market leader in 3D modeling and simulation in our industry. The addition of Coventor supports Lam's vision that advanced process and equipment control capabilities further enhance our competitiveness, our time-to-market, and enable us to deliver significant incremental value to our customers.

為了進一步擴大我們的價值主張，我們最近收購了 Coventor，它是我們行業內 3D 建模和模擬領域的市場領導者。Coventor 的加入支持了 Lam 的願景，先進的製程和設備控制能力將進一步增強我們的競爭力，縮短產品上市時間，並使我們能夠為客戶帶來顯著的增值。

Already, the potential value proposition of harnessing Coventor's modeling expertise with Lam's process and physical characterization capabilities to deliver more simulation and virtual fabrication for the development of next-generation devices has been reinforced by the excitement and substance of discussions within our engineering and collaboration partner communities.

將 Coventor 的建模專業知識與 Lam 的工藝和物理表徵能力相結合，為下一代裝置的開發提供更多模擬和虛擬製造，這一潛在價值主張已在我們的工程和合作夥伴社群的討論中得到了充分體現，並引發了熱烈的討論。

The growing strength of our systems business is further enhanced by our strong customer support business group, which continues to deliver advanced productivity and technology improvements to the installed base and actively promotes new product offerings in support of MEMS, automotive, power management and IoT device innovation. This business, which represents approximately 1/4 of our company revenues currently, is on track to deliver another record year of growth at a rate significantly faster than the rate of installed base growth this year, a byproduct of an enhanced portfolio and the strategic fit of the business with our customers' needs.

我們系統業務的日益壯大，得益於我們強大的客戶支援業務團隊，該團隊不斷為已安裝的設備提供先進的生產力和技術改進，並積極推廣新產品，以支援 MEMS、汽車、電源管理和物聯網設備的創新。這項業務目前約占我們公司營收的 1/4，預計再創一年的成長紀錄，其成長速度將遠超今年的裝置成長速度，這是產品組合增強以及業務與客戶需求策略契合的副產品。

Combined, these strategies have extended our differentiation and delivered consistent outperformance for Lam. We are on track to grow significantly faster than WFE and our served markets this year. Over the last 4 years, we have grown our shipments by 25% CAGR to approximately $10 billion this year at approximately twice the growth rates of both WFE and our largest peers and competitors combined in the equipment industry.

這些策略結合起來，擴大了我們的差異化優勢，並為 Lam 帶來了持續的優異業績。今年，我們的成長速度將遠超過WFE和我們所服務市場的成長速度。過去 4 年，我們的出貨量以 25% 的複合年增長率增長，今年達到約 100 億美元，約為 WFE 和我們在設備行業最大的同業和競爭對手增長率總和的兩倍。

As we look ahead to 2018, we expect to build on this momentum with over 90% of customer decisions on PTOR selection decisions already made and on the back of what already looks to be another strong year for industry CapEx spending.

展望 2018 年，我們預計將在此勢頭的基礎上繼續發展，超過 90% 的客戶已經做出了 PTOR 選擇決定，而且行業資本支出看起來又將是強勁的一年。

In conclusion, we are encouraged by the scale and sustainability of Lam opportunity, and we continue to invest in extending our differentiation and strategic relevance to our customers. We believe these dynamics position us well to continue to outperform.

總之，我們對 Lam 的發展機會的規模和可持續性感到鼓舞，並將繼續投資，以擴大我們與客戶的差異化優勢和策略相關性。我們相信，這些有利因素使我們能夠繼續取得優異的業績。

With that, let me turn the call over to Doug.

那麼，現在讓我把電話交給道格。

Okay, great. Thank you, Martin. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today.

好的，太好了。謝謝你，馬丁。各位下午好，感謝各位今天參加我們的節目。

We posted another solid quarter, delivering results above the midpoint of guidance for all financial metrics and extending our positive momentum heading into the end of the calendar year. Revenue, operating income, cash from operations and earnings per share were again at record levels in the September quarter and, overall, the company continues to perform well against our financial and operational objectives.

我們又迎來了一個穩健的季度，所有財務指標都超出預期中位數，並將積極的成長勢頭延續到了年底。9 月季度，公司營收、營業收入、經營活動現金流和每股盈餘再次創下歷史新高，總體而言，公司在實現財務和營運目標方面繼續表現良好。

Shipments for the quarter came in at $2,382,000,000, down 6% from the record-high level we delivered last quarter and just above the midpoint of our guided range. The combined Memory segment made up 66% of system shipments, which was down from 73% in the prior quarter. Non-volatile memory shipments represented 49% of the system shipments, which was down from 59% in the June quarter. DRAM shipments ticked up in the quarter, coming in at 17% compared to 14% last quarter. Our customers continued to invest in technology migrations at a rational and sustainable level to support demand growth in the mobile and server markets. DRAM pricing continues to be strong, supporting the increased investments.

本季出貨量為 23.82 億美元，比上季創紀錄的高點下降了 6%，略高於我們預期範圍的中點。記憶體業務合計佔系統出貨量的 66%，低於上一季的 73%。非揮發性記憶體出貨量佔系統出貨量的 49%，低於 6 月季度的 59%。本季DRAM出貨量小幅成長，達17%，而上一季為14%。為了支持行動和伺服器市場的需求成長，我們的客戶繼續以合理和可持續的水平投資於技術遷移。DRAM價格持續走強，支撐了投資的增加。

System shipments into the Foundry segment made up 21% of the total, down slightly from 22% in the June quarter. Foundry spend was biased toward investments to execute the 10-nanometer ramp as well as 7-nanometer pilot projects. Logic and Other shipments increased nicely in the September quarter, accounting for 13% of system shipments compared to 5% in the previous quarter. This record level of Logic and Other shipments is the highest percentage for us since the June 2015 quarter and is the highest in absolute dollars in the history of Lam. This increase in shipments was driven by the ramp of our application design wins at 10-nanometer as well as broadly higher demand for applications in image sensors as well as power management devices.

系統出貨量在晶圓代工領域佔總量的 21%，略低於 6 月季度的 22%。晶圓代工支出主要集中在 10 奈米製程量產以及 7 奈米製程試點計畫的投資。邏輯和其他產品的出貨量在 9 月季度實現了良好增長，佔系統出貨量的 13%，而上一季這一比例為 5%。Logic 和其他產品的出貨量創下歷史新高，占我們自 2015 年 6 月季度以來的最高百分比，也是 Lam 公司歷史上絕對金額最高的一次。出貨量的成長得益於我們在 10 奈米製程應用設計領域的成功，以及影像感測器和電源管理設備等應用領域需求的普遍成長。

September quarter revenue came in at $2,478,000,000, which was up 6% from the June quarter. Gross margin for the period came in at 47.2%, which was an improvement of 70 basis points and again above the midpoint of our guidance. Our gross margin performance, as always, is determined by several factors such as overall business volumes, product mix and customer concentration, and you should expect to see variability quarter-to-quarter.

9 月季度營收為 24.78 億美元，比 6 月季度成長 6%。本期毛利率為 47.2%，較上年同期提高了 70 個基點，再次高於我們先前預期的中點。我們的毛利率表現一如既往地取決於多種因素，例如整體業務量、產品組合和客戶集中度，因此您應該預料到每個季度都會出現波動。

Operating expenses were essentially flat at $438 million compared to $440 million in the June quarter. Expenses came in a bit lower than the implied guidance as we adjusted our outlook for variable compensation for the year. We continue to focus our spending toward innovative R&D programs that are enabling our customers' roadmaps.

營運支出基本持平，為 4.38 億美元，而 6 月的季度為 4.4 億美元。由於我們調整了對全年浮動薪酬的預期，實際支出略低於預期。我們將繼續把投入重點放在創新研發專案上，以協助客戶實現發展藍圖。

Operating expenses declined as a percentage of revenue to 17.7%, which was down from 18.8% in the prior quarter. Operating income in the September quarter was $733 million, up 13% from $650 million last quarter. Operating margin increased to 29.6%, which was up from 27.7% in the June quarter and again above the guidance range. Operating profitability was very strong in the quarter, driven by higher revenue as well as the improvement in gross margin.

營業費用佔收入的比例下降至 17.7%，低於上一季的 18.8%。9 月季度的營業收入為 7.33 億美元，比上一季的 6.5 億美元成長了 13%。營業利益率增至 29.6%，高於 6 月季度的 27.7%，再次高於預期範圍。本季營業利潤率非常強勁，這主要得益於營收成長和毛利率的提高。

The tax rate for the quarter was 14% compared to 13% last quarter. For the December quarter, I'd be modeling a rate in the low to middle teens.

本季稅率為14%，而上季為13%。對於 12 月的季度，我預計利率將在十幾到二十幾之間。

Based on a non-GAAP share count of approximately 181 million shares, earnings per share for the September quarter came in at $3.46, which was above the guided range. The share count includes dilution from both the 2018 and the 2041 convertible notes. The net dilutive impact from the notes is approximately 17 million shares on a non-GAAP basis.

根據約 1.81 億股的非 GAAP 股份數量計算，9 月季度的每股收益為 3.46 美元，高於預期範圍。股份數量包括 2018 年和 2041 年可轉換債券的稀釋。這些票據帶來的淨稀釋影響約為 1,700 萬股（以非 GAAP 準則計算）。

As we noted during last quarter's earnings call, with the increase in our stock price, we have received requests for early conversions of our 2018 and 2041 convertible notes. Conversions that settled in the September quarter totaled $302 million, of which $209 million related to the 2018 convertible bond and $93 million to the 2041 bond. Dilution schedules, including updated notional amounts for the 2018 and 2041 convertible notes, are available on our Investor Relations website to help you with your modeling.

正如我們在上個季度財報電話會議上所指出的，隨著我們股價的上漲，我們收到了提前轉換 2018 年和 2041 年可轉換票據的請求。9 月結算的轉換總額為 3.02 億美元，其中 2.09 億美元與 2018 年可轉換債券有關，9,300 萬美元與 2041 年債券有關。稀釋計畫表（包括 2018 年和 2041 年可轉換票據的最新名目金額）可在我們的投資者關係網站上找到，以幫助您進行建模。

We continue to execute on the capital return program we announced in November last year, spending approximately $230 million during the quarter in share repurchases as well as dividends and over $1 billion in the first 3 quarters of the calendar year.

我們繼續執行去年 11 月宣布的資本回報計劃，本季在股票回購和股利方面花費了約 2.3 億美元，在今年前三個季度花費了超過 10 億美元。

As of the end of the September quarter, we have completed approximately 88% of our current $1 billion share repurchase authorization, buying back a cumulative total of 6.3 million shares at an average share price of $139.17. We paid out $0.45 per share in dividends or $73 million during the quarter.

截至 9 月底，我們已完成目前 10 億美元股票回購授權的約 88%，累計回購 630 萬股，平均每股價格為 139.17 美元。本季我們派發了每股 0.45 美元的股息，總計 7,300 萬美元。

Let me now move to the balance sheet. We ended the quarter with cash and short-term investments, including restricted cash, of approximately $6.4 billion. This was up from $6.3 billion in the June quarter. Cash from operations was strong at $858 million, up from $729 million we generated in the June quarter.

現在讓我來看資產負債表。本季末，我們持有的現金和短期投資（包括受限現金）約為 64 億美元。這一數字高於六月當季的63億美元。經營活動產生的現金流強勁，達到 8.58 億美元，高於 6 月季度產生的 7.29 億美元。

Cash generation in the quarter was at a record level, enabling us to grow cash while funding the convertible note redemptions as well as our capital return programs.

本季現金流達到創紀錄水平，使我們能夠在為可轉換票據贖回和資本回報計劃提供資金的同時，實現現金成長。

DSO came in at 56 days, down from 65 days in June. Inventory turns came in at 4 compared to 4.1 in the prior quarter.

DSO 為 56 天，低於 6 月的 65 天。庫存週轉率為 4，而上一季為 4.1。

Deferred revenues were $938 million. This number excludes $344 million in shipments to customers in Japan, which will revenue in future quarters.

遞延收入為9.38億美元。該數字不包括向日本客戶發貨的價值 3.44 億美元的產品，這些產品將在未來幾季計入收入。

Company noncash expenses include $42 million for equity comp, $39 million for amortization and $40 million for depreciation.

公司非現金支出包括 4,200 萬美元的股權補償、3,900 萬美元的攤銷和 4,000 萬美元的折舊。

We incurred $60 million for capital expenditures in the quarter.

本季我們產生了 6000 萬美元的資本支出。

We exited the quarter with 9,800 regular full-time employees. Headcount additions came primarily in the field and factory, with further additions in the technology areas.

本季末，我們共有9800名正式全職員工。新增人員主要集中在現場和工廠，技術領域也有所增加。

Let me now turn to our non-GAAP guidance for the December quarter. We expect record shipments of $2,600,000,000 plus or minus $100 million. I'd just mention that 30% of the system shipments in December are to new greenfield fabs.

現在讓我來談談我們對12月季度的非GAAP財務預期。我們預計出貨量將創下26億美元的紀錄，上下浮動1億美元。我只想提一下，12 月系統出貨量的 30% 是發往新建的晶圓廠。

We expect record revenue of $2,550,000,000, again plus or minus $100 million.

我們預計營收將創下25.5億美元的紀錄，上下浮動1億美元。

We expect gross margin of 47.5%, plus or minus 1 percentage point.

我們預期毛利率為 47.5%，上下浮動 1 個百分點。

We're forecasting operating margins of 30%, plus or minus 1 percentage point.

我們預測營業利益率為 30%，上下浮動 1 個百分點。

And finally, we're forecasting earnings per share of $3.65, plus or minus $0.12 based on a share count of approximately 182 million shares.

最後，我們預測每股收益為 3.65 美元，上下浮動 0.12 美元，基於約 1.82 億股的股票數量。

So in summary, we're very pleased with our performance, delivering another quarter of solid operational execution, and we're on track for record financial results for calendar year 2017.

總而言之，我們對自身的表現非常滿意，又一個季度實現了穩健的營運執行，並且預計在 2017 年日曆年取得創紀錄的財務業績。

And while things could always change, as we look into '18, we continue to see what appears to be a strong year. Our current bias is that shipments in the first half of 2018 will be stronger than the second half of 2017. Shipment momentum heading into the March quarter seems meaningfully stronger to us than it is in December.

雖然情況隨時可能發生變化，但展望 2018 年，我們仍然看到這似乎是一個強勁的年份。我們目前的預期是，2018 年上半年的出貨量將強於 2017 年下半年。我們認為，進入三月季度的出貨動能明顯強於十二月份。

Before transitioning to the Q&A part of the call, I wanted to share some information about the timing of our Investor Day. We're now planning to host this event in the March quarter timeframe on an ongoing basis. This timing aligns well for us with executive availability, with the timing of our planning cycle and with what we think will be good investor attendance. We're excited about the sustainable outperformance opportunity we have ahead of us, and we look forward to sharing with you a comprehensive update on the company's plans and objectives at that time.

在進入電話會議的問答環節之前，我想分享一些關於我們投資者日的時間表的資訊。我們現在計劃在三月的季度內持續舉辦這項活動。這個時間安排對我們來說非常合適，因為高階主管的空閒時間、我們的規劃週期以及我們認為會有很多投資者出席。我們對未來可持續的超額收益機會感到興奮，並期待屆時與您分享公司計劃和目標的全面最新進展。

Operator, that concludes my prepared remarks. Please open up the call to questions.

操作員，我的發言到此結束。請開放提問環節。

(Operator Instructions) And we'll take our first question from Farhan Ahmad from Credit Suisse.

（操作員說明）我們首先來回答來自瑞士信貸的法爾漢·艾哈邁德提出的問題。

My first question is on operating margin. You're guiding December quarter to 30%, which is meaningfully higher than the long-term target model that you shared last time, which was at 28%. Can you just give us a sense of what's a sustainable level of margin for the business? And assuming the business can grow from here, do you -- should we think that there's upward bias to the operating margin?

我的第一個問題是關於營業利益率的。您預計 12 月季度的成長率將達到 30%，這比您上次分享的長期目標模型（28%）要高得多。您能否大致說明一下，對於企業而言，可持續的利潤率水準是多少？假設業務能夠從此成長，您是否認為營業利潤率會有上升的趨勢？

Yes, Farhan. I mean, I'll give you a new -- formally give you a new model when we get to the Analyst Day. I mean, the way I'd be thinking about it, when I look at gross margin right now, it's probably not going to get much higher than it is right now. In fact, there's really a bias to be a little bit lower than it is. And then it all comes down to what do you think the revenue levels of the company are. We clearly have delivered, in the last several years, leverage to spending. And as business volumes increase, we would continue to deliver that leverage. I'm not going to quantify it for you, but that would be the way I'd think about it. And then stay tuned. We'll give you a formal update when we get to the Analyst Day.

是的，法罕。我的意思是，等到分析師日的時候，我會正式地給你們一個新的模型。我的意思是，就我看來，就目前的毛利率而言，它可能不會比現在高出多少了。事實上，人們普遍傾向於低估這個數字。歸根結底，這取決於你認為公司的收入水平是多少。在過去幾年裡，我們已經明顯地提高了支出槓桿。隨著業務量的成長，我們將繼續發揮這種優勢。我不會為你量化這個問題，但我會這樣思考。敬請期待。我們將在分析師日當天向您提供正式的最新資訊。

And just to supplement with just maybe some color relative to our thinking and that kind of guides how we run the company, I mean, we run the company with a focus on absolute dollars of profitability, and our aspiration is to increase the value of our company and outperform relative to increasing the value of our company. And so the profitability that we care about most is a dollar, not a percentage, and the execution of our business on a day to day basis requires a very careful balance. And certainly, the guidance that I provide to the company is intended to claim our fair share of opportunity, our fair share of profitability without compromising the success of our customers because without the success of our customers, our industry is going to struggle. So it is as much a choice as anything else, and the choice is defined by how we optimize performance. And we optimize performance according to dollars of profit and dollars of profit growth.

為了補充說明我們的思路，以及這種思路如何指導我們公司的運營，我的意思是，我們以絕對的盈利能力為中心來運營公司，我們的目標是提高公司的價值，並在提高公司價值方面取得優異的成績。因此，我們最關心的獲利能力是美元，而不是百分比，我們日常業務的執行需要非常謹慎的平衡。當然，我向公司提供的指導旨在爭取我們應得的機會和利潤，同時又不損害客戶的成功，因為如果沒有客戶的成功，我們的行業將會舉步維艱。所以這在很大程度上是一種選擇，而這種選擇取決於我們如何優化效能。我們根據利潤金額和利潤成長率來優化績效。

And a quick follow-up. In terms of the segment outlook for DRAM and NAND, for the December quarter and first half of next year, do you -- how are you looking at the segment? Just quantitative guidance on which segments are stronger or weaker.

還有一個後續問題。就DRAM和NAND的細分市場前景而言，您如何看待12月季度和明年上半年的市場前景？僅提供關於哪些細分市場更強或更弱的量化指導。

Yes. So I would say -- I mean, Doug already provided a little bit of color relative to the first half of next year. Just to remind everybody, he said we bias first half of '18 shipments stronger than the second half of '17. As he said, shipments momentum meaningfully stronger in March over December as best we see it today. What I'll add is at a WFE level, our expectation is probably in the mid- to high-single digit range year-over-year, and we would expect more than 85% of the growth in WFE year-over-year to come from memory.

是的。所以我想說——我的意思是，道格已經對明年上半年的情況做了一些預測。提醒大家一下，他說我們預計 2018 年上半年的出貨量將強於 2017 年下半年。正如他所說，從我們目前所看到的來看，3月的出貨動能明顯強於12月。我還要補充一點，就 WFE 層面而言，我們預計同比成長率可能在個位數中高段位，而且我們預計 WFE 年成長率的 85% 以上將來自記憶力。

And we'll take our next question from C.J. Muse with Evercore ISI.

接下來，我們將回答來自 Evercore ISI 的 C.J. Muse 的問題。

I guess, first question, Martin, a longer-term question on the memory side. Hyperscale guys are asking for longer-term supply agreements from chip makers, which is clearly a strategic change and speaks to how much more important memory is and how much more strategic it's becoming. And so my question to you is, is that changing your relationship at all, your visibility, how you partner with chip makers, given this kind of change?

我想，馬丁，第一個問題，是關於記憶方面的長期問題。超大規模資料中心正在向晶片製造商要求簽訂更長期的供應協議，這顯然是一種策略轉變，也顯示記憶​​體的重要性日益凸顯，其戰略意義也越來越重大。所以我的問題是，鑑於這種變化，這是否會改變您與晶片製造商的關係、知名度以及合作方式？

The simple answer to that question is yes. I do think we have more visibility. We are clearly more relevant to the success of our customers today by virtue of the scope of the portfolio and the relevance of the portfolio to the technology inflections that are -- that we've been talking about for some years. We still have to work very hard to do what we do, but I would say relatively speaking, our visibility and our engagement is stronger, consistent with the strengthening of strategic relevance of Lam to the industry.

這個問題的答案很簡單，而且是肯定的。我認為我們的知名度提高了。如今，憑藉我們產品組合的範圍以及產品組合與我們多年來一直在談論的技術變革的相關性，我們顯然與客戶的成功更加息息相關。我們仍然需要非常努力地做好我們所做的事情，但相對而言，我們的知名度和參與度更高了，這與林氏在行業中戰略相關性的增強是一致的。

Okay, I guess, as a follow-up, Doug, you talked about OpEx coming in a little lighter in the September quarter related to, I guess, bonus plans. And so curious, does that suggest perhaps a delay in terms of timing of clean room coming online? Or other factors like that have pushed shipments into the first half of calendar '18?

好的，我想補充一點，Doug，你提到9月份季度的營運支出略有減少，我想這與獎金計畫有關。那麼，這是否意味著無塵室上線時間可能會有所延遲呢？或者還有其他類似因素導致出貨延後到 2018 年上半年？

No, not really, C.J. I mean, the 2 are somewhat independent. You always -- I mean, when you get to the second half of the year, you start truing things up and your perspective could be a little bit different. It's more got to do with what's going on internally than clean room coming online. There's a lot of clean room space coming online as we speak, and I think for the most part, it's consistent with what we expected to see, what the industry has communicated it's doing. There really isn't any difference there.

不，其實不是，C.J. 我的意思是，這兩者在某種程度上是獨立的。你總是——我的意思是，到了下半年，你開始理清頭緒，你的觀點可能會有所不同。這與內部情況有關，而不是無塵室上線的問題。目前有許多無塵室空間正在投入使用，我認為這在很大程度上與我們的預期一致，也與該行業所傳達的訊息相符。實際上並沒有什麼差別。

And just to add, I would say it's almost completely independent because our bonus plans accrue on revenues and profits on revenues, not on shipments.

另外補充一點，我認為它幾乎完全獨立，因為我們的獎金計劃是根據收入和利潤計算的，而不是根據出貨量計算的。

And we'll take our next question from Krish Sankar with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

接下來，我們將回答來自美國銀行美林證券的 Krish Sankar 提出的問題。

I have 2 of them. One is, Martin or Doug, if I look at your revenue as a percentage of WFE, it's been running around 22%, 23%. I'm just trying -- I'm curious, like to get to like a 24% or a higher percentage, what needs to happen? Is it just a SAM expansion or do you think share gains are going to be more critical to get a higher percentage of WFE? And I have a follow up.

我有兩個。一是，Martin 或 Doug，如果我把你們的收入佔 WFE 的百分比來看，它一直徘徊在 22% 到 23% 左右。我只是想試試看——我很好奇，如果我想達到 24% 或更高的百分比，需要做些什麼？你認為只是SAM擴張，還是市場佔有率的提升對於獲得更高的WFE百分比更為關鍵？我還有一個後續問題。

I think they're both relevant. We've articulated for a number of years the opportunity for SAM expansion, beyond the boundaries that we're currently reporting. So the technology inflections are far from done and they're relevant for many, many years yet to come. And as you also know from prior disclosure and our reported financial results, the market share momentum in the company is targeted to be positive and is positive. This is a stronger market share year for the company than was true last year, and that sits in the context of the long-term models which you're pretty familiar with. So whether it's a 50-50 conversation or biased slightly to the SAM expansion conversation, there's certainly some exciting business opportunity and upside for the company in the years to come.

我認為兩者都相關。多年來，我們一直在闡述 SAM 擴展的機會，其範圍遠遠超出我們目前所報告的範圍。因此，技術變革遠未結束，而且在未來很多年都將具有現實意義。正如您從先前的揭露和我們公佈的財務業績中也了解到的那樣，公司市場份額的成長勢頭預計為正，而且目前已實現正增長。今年該公司的市佔率比去年有所成長，這與您非常熟悉的長期模型相符。所以，無論雙方的討論是五五開還是略微偏向 SAM 擴張，未來幾年，該公司肯定有一些令人興奮的商業機會和發展前景。

Krish, this is a Doug. What I get excited about is just looking at the growth in the installed base and what's going on with our installed base business, which, as you know, isn't part of WFE necessarily. It just grows along with the installed base, which is, as Martin said in his scripted remarks, it's doing really, really nicely this year.

克里什，這是道格。讓我感到興奮的是，我們看到了已安裝用戶群的成長以及我們已安裝用戶群業務的發展情況，正如你所知，這不一定是 WFE 的一部分。隨著用戶群的擴大，用戶數量也在增加。正如馬丁在事先準備好的發言稿中所說，今年的用戶群發展得非常好。

Got it, got it. That kind of leads into my second question or the follow up, which is, can you talk a little bit about your services business? How much is it as a percentage of revenue? And what is the margin structure there like? And what do you think the CAGR for that is going to be?

明白了，明白了。這自然引出了我的第二個問題或後續問題，那就是，您能簡單談談您的服務業務嗎？它佔總收入的百分比是多少？那裡的利潤率結構如何？你認為該項業務的複合年增長率（CAGR）會是多少？

Yes, I mean, Krish, what we've talked about is we've got objectives to grow it faster than the installed base, and it absolutely is doing that over the last several years. I get really excited about what's going on there. Profitability isn't all that different than the rest of the company. When we look at it in aggregate, the gross margins may be a little bit less than selling new equipment, but the level of investment isn't anywhere near what we need to invest in the new equipment side, so the operating income and the cash generation is very attractive in this part of the business.

是的，克里什，我的意思是，我們討論過的目標是讓它的成長速度超過現有用戶群的成長速度，而過去幾年它確實做到了這一點。我對那裡發生的事情感到非常興奮。獲利能力與公司其他部門並沒有太大差異。從整體來看，毛利率可能比銷售新設備略低，但投資水準遠不及我們在新設備所需的投資，因此，這部分業務的營業收入和現金流非常有吸引力。

We'll take our next question from Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley.

接下來，我們將回答摩根士丹利的喬·摩爾提出的問題。

Wondering if you can talk a little bit about the NAND market in the next few quarters and how do you see the spending shifting between sort of conversion of planar NAND to 3D. How much do you think now is shifting over towards 3D scaling and what happens to your -- I assume your share of the market potentially goes up as you move to more of a 3D scaling environment. Just some more color on that will be good.

想請您談談未來幾季的 NAND 市場，以及您如何看待支出從平面 NAND 轉向 3D NAND 的轉變。您認為現在向 3D 縮放的轉變有多大程度？您的市佔率會發生什麼變化？ ——我假設隨著您轉向更多 3D 縮放的環境，您的市場份額可能會上升。如果能再添加一些色彩就更好了。

Yes, I mean, the construct of this year's spending by the customer in the NAND space is reasonably evenly balanced across the kind of 3 implementation scenarios, right? So you've got kind of the addition of new 3D NAND capacity, you've got a conversion from 2D to 3D, and then you've got this kind of vertical scaling of some 3D capacity from, let's say, generation 2 to generation 3. And they're all represented. The smaller of the 3 is the 3D NAND scaling segment. As you've heard us characterize a couple of times now, we are actually almost agnostic to the path of the customer between the addition of new capacity and the conversion from 2D to 3D. It's more or less the same-sized opportunity for the company, and I think that's unique in the industry as a byproduct of the process flow and the position of the company's products to support that inflection. As the 3D capacity becomes a bigger proportion, and still even by the end of this year, I think it may only be about half of the installed base capacity, and that half is in various forms. Not all of it is latest generation, highest layer count kind of 3D. The opportunity for 3D NAND vertical scaling investment is going to grow over time, and that's the most efficient path for our customers. It's also the path which is most biased to etch and deposition, so the segment concentration of a vertical scaling is even stronger for us as a relative opportunity to the rest of the industry. So at the end of the day, the customers will make the right choices. They'll optimize fabs and optimize economics, and that's a pretty dynamic space. So it's one that's pretty difficult to predict, and we actually don't need to for the reasons that I've just summarized.

是的，我的意思是，今年客戶在 NAND 領域的支出結構在三種實現方案之間相當均衡，對吧？所以，一方面增加了新的 3D NAND 容量，另一方面實現了從 2D 到 3D 的轉換，然後又實現了從第二代到第三代的 3D 容量的垂直擴展。所有這些都得到了體現。3 個部件中較小的是 3D NAND 擴充部分。正如您已經聽我們描述過幾次的那樣，我們實際上對客戶在增加新產能和從 2D 轉換為 3D 之間的路徑幾乎持中立態度。對於公司而言，這或多或少是一個規模相同的機遇，我認為這在業內是獨一無二的，這是流程和公司產品定位支持這一轉變的副產品。隨著 3D 列印能力佔比越來越大，即使到今年年底，我認為它可能也只佔已安裝基礎容量的一半左右，而且這一半是以各種形式存在的。並非所有都是最新一代、層數最高的3D模型。隨著時間的推移，3D NAND 垂直擴展的投資機會將會成長，這對我們的客戶來說是最有效的途徑。這也是最偏向蝕刻和沈積的路徑，因此，垂直縮放的細分市場集中度對我們來說，相對於產業其他部分而言，這是一個更強的機會。所以最終，顧客會做出正確的選擇。他們會優化晶圓廠並優化經濟效益，這是一個非常動態的領域。所以這件事很難預測，而且實際上我們也不需要預測，原因我已經總結過了。

And we'll take our next question from Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

接下來，我們將回答來自摩根大通的哈蘭·蘇爾提出的問題。

My question is kind of similar to the last one, except it's more DRAM. The industry in DRAM has done extremely well, tight supply, very strong demand environment. All eyes are starting to turn to next year when the capital spending trajectory in DRAM is going higher. And the question from investors again is, are the DRAM competitors going to remain disciplined on a capacity expansion perspective? And you guys had talked previously about 2017 maybe kind of 1% to 3% increase in total DRAM industry capacity, pretty disciplined. So as you guys look into your forward pipeline, talk with your customers, how do you view total DRAM capacity expansion next year? Are you guys continuing to see sort of focus on profitability?

我的問題和上一個問題有點類似，只不過是關於DRAM的。DRAM產業表現非常出色，供應緊張，需求強勁。所有人的目光都開始轉向明年，預計 DRAM 領域的資本支出將會持續成長。投資人再次提出疑問：DRAM 的競爭對手能否在產能擴張上保持自律？你們之前討論過 2017 年 DRAM 產業總產能可能會成長 1% 到 3%，相當穩健。那麼，當你們審視未來的產品線，並與客戶溝通時，你們又如何看待明年DRAM總產能的擴張呢？你們是否仍注重獲利能力？

Yes, I would say intensely so. It's a consolidated industry and everybody fights for their share of economics. And I think the evidence of the last several years is reinforcing of everything that was embedded in your question. To the best of our ability to model, the capacity for DRAM at the end of '17 is similar to the capacity at the end of '15, and that's kind of wafer starts out statement. And that's a statement of slight growth after the contraction year in calendar '16. What's maybe a little bit different today than was true 3 months ago is the proportion of the installed base that is converting to the 20-nanometer technology node is actually progressing a little bit faster than the assumptions we had 3 months ago. So if you look at the construct of DRAM capacity at the end of this year, between 1x capacity, 20-series product, and then more than 20-nanometer, we would guess probably 25%, 55% and 20%. It's for sure incredibly disciplined. And the balance of conversion is obviously very high, so it's a very efficient investment for our customers. And to the extent that any capacity gets added, it will get added as best we can tell from legitimate demand drivers. And we have the same bit growth assumptions as everybody else, in the kind of low 20% range for DRAM. And it will come from the relative transitions and density per wafer out. And as I think everybody appreciates, the density-per-wafer-out improvement at the latter stages of the DRAM road map are a little less than was true, let's say, 5 years ago in a transition. So that's part of the story as well. But I mean, as a basic premise, we absolutely expect discipline to continue, and we can't guarantee that. We don't have a crystal ball, but that's the planning assumption and that's the behavior as best we can tell from our customers.

是的，我完全同意。這是一個高度集中的行業，每個人都在爭奪自己的經濟份額。我認為過去幾年的證據印證了你問題中所蘊含的一切。根據我們所能建模，2017 年底 DRAM 的產能與 2015 年底的產能相似，這算是晶圓生產的開端。這是繼 2016 年經濟萎縮之後略有成長的跡象。與 3 個月前相比，今天的情況可能略有不同，那就是已安裝設備向 20 奈米技術節點轉換的比例實際上比我們 3 個月前的預期進展得更快一些。因此，如果你觀察今年年底 DRAM 產能的結構，在 1 倍產能、20 系列產品以及 20 奈米以上的產品之間，我們估計大概是 25%、55% 和 20%。這絕對是一項紀律嚴明的事業。而且轉換率顯然非常高，所以對我們的客戶來說，這是一項非常有效率的投資。而且，如果產能增加，那也是根據合理的需求驅動因素來判斷的。我們對位元成長的假設與其他人一樣，DRAM 的位元成長幅度在 20% 左右。這將取決於每片晶圓的相對轉變率和密度。如大家所理解的，DRAM路線圖後期階段的每片晶圓密度提升幅度，與5年前的過渡時期相比，略有下降。所以這也是故事的一部分。但我的意思是，作為基本前提，我們當然希望紀律能夠繼續保持，但我們無法保證這一點。我們沒有水晶球，但這是我們的規劃假設，也是我們從客戶那裡了解到的行為。

Thanks for the insights there. You guys are almost completed with the $1 billion share repurchase program. I guess you'll be done with that by the year end. Free cash flow generation, sitting kind of in the high 20% range. So does the team wait for potential tax reform? Or can you take on some debt to fund sort of the next tranche of your repurchase activity? And then just roughly, what is the additional debt capacity that the team can take on while maintaining their investment-grade status?

謝謝你的見解。你們的10億美元股票回購計畫即將完成。我猜你到年底就能完成這件事了。自由現金流產生率，大約在 20% 以上。那麼，球隊是否會等待潛在的稅制改革呢？或者，您可以舉債來為下一階段的回購活動提供資金？那麼，粗略估計一下，球隊在維持投資等級信用評級的前提下，還能承擔多少額外的債務？

Yes, Harlan, I'm not ready to give you a definitive update on that right now. Obviously, we're paying close attention to what's going on relative to the tax discussion in Washington. Your guess is as good as mine in terms of what might happen as well as the timing. We certainly have an ability to take on more debt should we choose to do that, and that's something I'll be talking to the board -- Martin and I will be talking to the board about. When I've got something to the update you on, I'll share it with you, but I don't have that right now.

是的，哈蘭，我現在還無法給你一個確切的答案。顯然，我們正在密切關注華盛頓稅收討論的進展。對於可能發生的事情以及發生的時間，你的猜測和我的一樣好。我們當然有能力承擔更多債務，如果我們選擇這樣做的話，這也是我將與董事會討論的事情——我和馬丁將與董事會討論此事。如果有新的消息要告訴你，我會告訴你，但我現在還沒有。

And we'll take our next question from Toshi Hari with Goldman Sachs.

接下來，我們將回答來自高盛的 Toshi Hari 提出的問題。

The uptick you saw in Logic shipments in the quarter was a nice surprise. Doug, you talked about the ramp of 10-nanometer, I think, image sensors, and if I caught you correctly, power management. I guess the question is, is this level of shipments on a quarterly basis the new normal given that 10-nanometer is ramping? Or was this quarter sort of a one-off in terms of shipments?

本季 Logic 出貨量的成長是一個令人驚訝的結果。Doug，你談到了 10 奈米影像感測器的發展，如果我沒理解錯的話，還有電源管理。我想問的是，考慮到 10 奈米技術的快速發展，這種季度出貨量水準是否會成為新的常態？或者說，本季的出貨量屬於特例？

Things will always ebb and flow, as you know. I mean, we've been talking about the applications wins in 10-nanometer for a while now. Obviously, as that ramps into production, that will continue. Image sensors, it comes and goes, and likewise, with the power management stuff. But I expect the trajectory to continue here. We're doing real well. We've been waiting for this for a while, and the ramp is beginning to happen.

事物總是有起有落，你也知道。我的意思是，我們已經討論 10 奈米製程的應用前景一段時間了。顯然，隨著量產的推進，這種情況還會持續下去。影像感測器時而出現，時而消失，電源管理方面也是如此。但我預計這種趨勢還會持續下去。我們做得很好。我們已經等這一刻很久了，現在進展順利。

Yes, 2 things to add. One of them is it is more the new norm than not, and I hope it really isn't a surprise. We've been talking about it for long enough, so it's really nice to actually finally answer the question for everybody and demonstrate the success of our engagements in Logic and Foundry in etch and deposition. Both have taken a lot of hard work from a lot of people, and it's really nice to see a further increase in the balanced engagements of the company in the industry. We're fortunate to be in a very strong position around technology inflections. We're fortunate to have the strength of the company in memory at a time when memory is clearly an increasingly relevant and critical part of the road map of success for all of our customers. And this is icing on the cake at some level, so a really nice result.

是的，還有兩點要補充。其中之一是，這更像是一種新常態，我希望這真的不會讓人感到驚訝。我們已經討論這個問題很久了，所以很高興終於能夠回答大家的問題，並展示我們在蝕刻和沈積方面的邏輯和鑄造過程的成功。這兩項成果都凝聚了許多人的辛勤努力，很高興看到公司在業界更均衡地參與其中。我們很幸運，在技術變革方面處於非常有利的地位。我們很幸運，公司在儲存領域擁有強大的實力，而如今儲存顯然已成為我們所有客戶成功路線圖中越來越重要和關鍵的一部分。從某種程度上來說，這算是錦上添花，所以結果非常好。

Okay, great. And then I had a follow-up on the Coventor acquisition in the quarter. Martin, you went through the acquisition in your prepared remarks, but if you can kind of reiterate what the rationale was, what you'd gain from this from a technology perspective and how it could potentially impact your incumbent businesses, that would be great.

好的，太好了。然後，本季我還跟進了 Coventor 的收購情況。馬丁，你在事先準備好的發言稿中已經談到了這次收購，但如果你能再重申一下收購的理由，從技術角度來看你能從中獲得什麼，以及它可能對你現有的業務產生怎樣的影響，那就太好了。

Yes, thank you for the question. In many respects, it's a repeat of much of the rationale we talked about in the context of prior M&A focus for process control in the company. And in some respects, this is consistent with the messaging on data and AI having the potential to change the world, and that includes being relevant in our industry and the industry of our customers as well. So we believe that we have value to deliver to our customers and value to deliver to our shareholders through an enhancement of process control capabilities, and we are generally collaborative in execution today as strategies. But we have an opportunity to acquire and fully harness the capability of Coventor in the mix. It brings expertise and competency into the company. That, for sure, supplements and strengthens our pre-existing computer science algorithm analytics capability, modeling capability. And it's a really nice partnership, I would say, for a virtual modeling business and a true process and a hardware characterization business. So the combination of those 2 things, we believe, has an opportunity to grow faster than was true for a standalone business, the pre-existing products and services of the Coventor business. And it has an opportunity to provide us vehicles to introduce new products and services in that space. And last but not least, it's an opportunity to increase the competitive differentiation of the etch and the deposition and the clean portfolio through enhanced control and faster cycle time in development and better predictability and opening up process windows and so on and so forth. So it's part of what we've been talking about for some time. It was a nice opportunity to take custody over a valuable asset, and we're super excited about the opportunity in front of us. And I think that optimism is shared by our customers.

是的，謝謝你的提問。在許多方面，這與我們之前在公司流程控制方面關注併購時討論的許多理由如出一轍。在某些方面，這與數據和人工智慧有可能改變世界的說法是一致的，這也包括與我們自身產業以及我們客戶的產業相關的意義。因此，我們相信，透過提高流程控制能力，我們可以為客戶創造價值，為股東創造價值，而我們目前在策略執行方面通常採取合作方式。但我們有機會將 Coventor 的能力納入考量並充分利用。它為公司帶來了專業知識和能力。這無疑補充並加強了我們現有的電腦科學演算法分析能力和建模能力。我認為，對於虛擬建模業務和真正的流程以及硬體特性分析業務來說，這真是一個非常好的合作關係。因此，我們認為，這兩件事的結合，比 Coventor 業務的現有產品和服務作為獨立業務，更有可能實現更快的成長。它有機會為我們提供途徑，讓我們能夠在這個領域推出新產品和服務。最後但同樣重要的是，這是一個透過增強控制、加快開發週期、提高可預測性、打開製程窗口等方式來提高蝕刻、沉積和清潔產品組合的競爭差異化的機會。所以，這和我們之前一直在討論的內容有關。這是一個接管一項寶貴資產的好機會，我們對眼前的機會感到無比興奮。我認為我們的客戶也抱持著同樣的樂觀態度。

And we'll take our next question from Patrick Ho with Stifel.

接下來，我們將回答來自 Stifel 的 Patrick Ho 的問題。

This Brian Chin calling in for Patrick. Looking at your shipment distribution for the September quarter, China is only your fourth-largest geography, but shipments were down sequentially by a decent amount in September. Just curious what it's attributed to and whether you can comment on how the pipeline or trajectory in China looks moving through next year.

我是布萊恩·欽，替派崔克打電話。從您 9 月季度的出貨量分佈來看，中國祇是您第四大出貨地區，但 9 月的出貨量較上季下降了相當大幅度。我只是好奇這歸因於什麼，以及您能否談談明年中國市場的管道或發展軌跡如何。

Yes, I'd say that what happened in the quarter relative to China is completely unrepresentative of any broader trend. So certainly, don't read anything into that other than it's the same for any customer in any region. Investment is a byproduct of discrete projects in any one quarter, and that's always going to have an ebb and a flow. If we look at kind of new fab projects, maybe I'd kind of give you an update from the disclosure of prior periods. From now through the end of calendar '18, we're tracking, I think, 18 fab -- greenfield fabs today, and a greenfield fab can be a second floor on a double-stacked fab, just to be fully disclosed on that. 12 of the 18 are in China. And about 8 of them, I think, are classified as domestic China, and 4 of them are kind of global China. And when you look at the distribution of investment that we're expecting next year between global and domestic players in China, it's actually close to 50-50. So equipment purchases, wafer starts, capacity additions in China, domestic community and global community, looks 50-50-ish at this point in time. That could change, but that's the headline today. So we still say the same thing today that we said before. China, for global companies and domestic community, is a relevant part of our future. We believe that execution is as disciplined an execution in China as it is anywhere else in the world and hope that, that continues. And we're very focused. We're investing heavily, and our position in memory and logic both in China is very strong. So hopefully, that is helpful to you.

是的，我認為本季中國的情況完全不能代表任何更廣泛的趨勢。所以，千萬不要對此做任何解讀，這僅僅意味著任何地區的任何客戶都面臨同樣的情況。投資是任何一個季度內各個獨立項目的副產品，而且投資總是會有起伏波動的。如果我們看看一些新的製造項目，也許我會根據之前披露的信息，向你們報告一下最新進展。從現在到 2018 年底，我們將追蹤 18 個晶圓廠——今天指的是新建晶圓廠，而新建晶圓廠也可能是雙層晶圓廠的二樓，這一點需要完全公開說明。18人中有12人在中國。其中約有 8 個被歸類為中國國內問題，4 個被歸類為全球性問題。當你觀察我們預計明年中國全球企業和國內企業之間的投資分配情況時，你會發現實際上兩者的比例接近 50:50。因此，目前來看，中國國內和全球的設備採購、晶圓開工、產能增加情況，國內市場和全球市場的比例大致為 50/50。情況可能會有所改變，但這就是今天的頭條新聞。所以我們今天仍然堅持以前的觀點。中國對於全球企業和國內社會而言，都是我們未來不可或缺的一部分。我們認為，中國的軍事執行力與世界其他地方一樣嚴謹，並希望這種趨勢能繼續保持下去。我們目標非常明確。我們正在大力投資，我們在中國記憶體和邏輯電路領域都佔有非常強大的地位。希望這對您有所幫助。

Very helpful. And just one quick follow-up question on your comment about shipments being very healthy through the March quarter. Just wondering, are there any discernible shifts you're seeing in spending within memory between NAND and DRAM over that horizon?

很有幫助。關於您提到的三月季度出貨量非常健康的問題，我還有一個後續問題。想請教一下，在未來一段時間內，您是否觀察到 NAND 和 DRAM 之間的記憶體支出出現任何明顯的轉變？

Too early for us to comment at this point. I think both segments are disciplined. Both segments have overlapping demand drivers, but they have unique demand drivers, and we'll kind of hold off until January to get specific. What I should say, by the way, going back to the China question is when I gave my reference to 8 domestic, I was referring to memory and logic both, and both segments are represented in the plans of our customers.

現在評論此事還為時過早。我認為這兩個部門都紀律嚴明。這兩個細分市場的需求驅動因素有重疊之處，但它們的需求驅動因素又各有不同，我們暫且等到一月再具體說明。順便說一下，回到中國的問題，當我提到國內的 8 個產品時，我指的是記憶體和邏輯電路，這兩個領域都在我們客戶的計畫中有所體現。

We'll take our next question from Sidney Ho with Deutsche Bank.

接下來，我們將回答來自德意志銀行的 Sidney Ho 提出的問題。

A couple of months ago, you guys suggested that the WFE opportunity for NAND would be $70 billion over the next 5 years, and that's assuming 40% bit growth. Now that one of the suppliers actually suggested that the market will grow 50% next year, and it seems like you agree with that, does that make your forecast too conservative now? And if it does become 50% per year going forward instead of 40%, how do you think about the NAND WFE? How will that change?

幾個月前，你們曾預測，未來 5 年 NAND 快閃記憶體的 WFE 市場規模將達到 700 億美元，而這還是假設比特成長率為 40%。既然其中一家供應商預測明年市場將成長 50%，而且你似乎也同意這個觀點，那麼你先前的預測是否過於保守了？如果未來每年的成長幅度從 40% 變成 50%，您如何看待 NAND WFE？這種情況會如何改變？

There's always announcements, positive and negative, there always will be. We have no basis to update a $70 billion reference at this time. Same message today as was true at Flash Memory Summit.

總會有各種消息，有好消息也有壞消息，以後也會一直有。目前我們沒有依據來更新700億美元的參考數據。今天傳達的訊息與快閃記憶體峰會上傳達的訊息相同。

Okay, maybe switching over to DRAM, as a follow-up to an earlier question. There's quite a bit of increase in DRAM CapEx by your customers, and it seems like there's a consensus view that maybe CapEx per wafer is going higher. Obviously, cost per bit is still going down. If it is getting more expensive per wafer, how do you think customers justify the high cost? And are they either eating into the cost, granted they are making a lot of money these days? Or do you think that's being passed along to the end users?

好的，或許可以考慮切換到 DRAM，這是對先前問題的後續。您的客戶在 DRAM 資本支出方面有相當大的成長，而且似乎大家普遍認為每片晶圓的資本支出可能會更高。顯然，每比特成本仍在下降。如果每片晶圓的成本越來越高，你認為顧客如何接受高昂的價格？而且，考慮到他們最近賺了很多錢，他們是否在分攤成本？還是你認為這些資訊會傳遞給最終用戶？

I think you might have answered your own question. They're making more money than they ever have done. They're making more money than I do. So I would say as a basic headline, it looks like they've rationalized an ability to make an investment and get paid for it. And I think going back to the questions of discipline, the consolidated industry and a disciplined capacity addition is kind of part of that story. I think your question is very good because it is appropriate that everybody recognizes that the cost of density is higher, and that's one of the reasons why the next-generation memory conversation shows up in the industry today when it didn't do several years ago. But what I want to remind everybody is that there is tons of life left in the DRAM device. There are multiple technology nodes ahead of us in the road map of our customers today, and there are many years of investments still left in that product and technology. And I'm sure a year from now, we'll see something even better than that because the industry has a tendency to innovate its way to some pretty outstanding solutions.

我覺得你可能已經自己找到答案了。他們賺的錢比以往任何時候都多。他們賺的錢比我多。所以，簡單來說，他們似乎已經找到了合理的投資方式，既能進行投資又能獲得回報。我認為，回到紀律問題上來，整合後的產業和有紀律的產能擴張是這個故事的一部分。我認為你的問題問得很好，因為大家都體認到密度越高成本越高，這是理所當然的。這也是為什麼如今業界開始討論下一代記憶體技術，而幾年前卻還沒有出現的原因之一。但我想提醒大家的是，DRAM 裝置還有很長的使用壽命。在客戶目前的路線圖中，我們面前還有多個技術節點，在該產品和技術方面，我們還需要進行多年的投資。我相信一年後，我們會看到比這更好的東西，因為這個行業往往會透過創新來獲得一些非常出色的解決方案。

And your next question is from Weston Twigg from KeyBanc Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Weston Twigg。

I wanted to follow-up on one earlier about the record shipments in IDM and Logic. Just wondering, when you mentioned your growth in 2018, I think you mentioned that 85% of the growth looks like it's coming from memory. Why not a little bit more growth coming from the Logic and/or maybe the Foundry side given the 10- and 7-nanometer ramps?

我想跟進一下之前關於 IDM 和 Logic 唱片出貨量的問題。我只是想問一下，當您提到2018年的成長時，好像說過85%的成長都來自記憶力。考慮到 10 奈米和 7 奈米製程的產能爬坡，為什麼邏輯電路和/或晶圓代工方面不能有更大的成長？

Okay, I'm glad you asked that because I maybe wasn't quite as clear as I should have been. When I referenced 85%, I was trying to describe our outlook for calendar '18 WFE compared to calendar '17 WFE. So our expectation is calendar '18 is higher than '17. I introduced a mid- to high single-digit reference for that, and I provided a perspective that said we expect 85% of the growth in WFE year-over-year to be memory based. I apologize for the confusion.

好的，很高興你問了這個問題，因為我可能沒有表達得夠清楚。當我提到 85% 時，我試圖描述我們對 2018 年 WFE 日曆的展望與 2017 年 WFE 日曆的展望相比如何。因此，我們預計 2018 年日曆資料將高於 2017 年。我為此引入了一個個位數中高段位的參考值，並提供了一個觀點，即我們預計 WFE 同比增長的 85% 將來自記憶體。對此造成的誤會，我深感抱歉。

I think I understood it properly. I'm just wondering with, say, your 10-nanometer ramp at one of the big Logic customers and the 7-nanometer activity at the foundries why you wouldn't see more of the growth coming from those segments. And I don't know if your particular exposure to memory is just higher or it's a broader reference.

我覺得我理解對了。我只是好奇，比如說，你們的某個大型邏輯晶片客戶已經開始採用 10 奈米過程，而代工廠也在進行 7 奈米製程的生產，為什麼你們沒有看到更多的成長來自這些領域呢？我不知道你接觸記憶術的機會比較多，還是你的參考範圍更廣。

Well, we do the best we can to take every piece of data that's available to us in terms of demand -- device demand, the implications of that device demand on various kind of manufacturing segments to the best of our abilities. We look at kind of reuse capabilities, which is relevant for every segment of the industry. We take into account public and private disclosure of the companies -- of our customers, and we tell you to the best of our abilities what we think our outlook is. So the 85% headline is the best communication we can give you at this point.

我們會盡最大努力，利用所有可用的數據來分析需求——設備需求，以及這種設備需求對各種製造領域的影響。我們著眼於各種再利用能力，這與產業的各個領域息息相關。我們會考慮客戶的公司公開和私下披露的信息，並盡我們所能告訴您我們對前景的看法。所以，目前我們能傳達給你們最好的訊息就是85%這個結果。

Okay. And then as my follow-up, just on the guidance, you've had several quarters of beats and raises, and I know the market is very strong. Are you guiding too conservatively? Do you think that -- I guess, what are you missing when you're guiding over the last few quarters? Why is demand out-running your expectations a little bit?

好的。然後，作為我的後續問題，關於業績指引，你們已經連續幾個季度業績超出預期並上調了業績預期，我知道市場非常強勁。你的指導策略是否過於保守？你覺得——我想說的是，你在過去幾季的指導工作中錯過了什麼？為什麼需求略微超出您的預期？

No, it's not out-running it by an enormous amount, Weston. And we've done a little better in the last couple of quarters in terms of gross margin. And I just guided you to the highest gross margin, I think, in the last decade of the company, so it's not conservative by nature. We've done a little better over the last several quarters for sure. But I'd just tell you, we tell you what we see as we look into the quarter.

不，它並沒有遙遙領先，韋斯頓。過去幾個季度，我們的毛利率有所提高。而且，我認為，我剛剛帶領你們實現了公司近十年來最高的毛利率，所以它本質上並不保守。過去幾個季度，我們的表現確實有所改善。但我只想告訴你，我們會把你在我們觀察本季時看到的情況告訴你。

And maybe again just to supplement, it's actually not easy to give guidance, just to be clear. I mean, this is a consolidated industry. The investments of our customers are big. Any one application is big. Any one investment is big. And so the potential to predict this at a quarterly level can actually be quite challenging. And I would say our guidance is really good because consistently, we are guiding and performing within the range of our guidance. So with due respect to your question, maybe we're not as precise as you'd like us to be, but I feel really good about the integrity of the guidance conversation and the performance of the company inside of the guidance range consistently.

或許還要補充一點，說實話，給指導其實並不容易。我的意思是，這是一個高度集中的行業。我們客戶的投資額很大。任何一個應用程式都很龐大。每一筆投資都很重要。因此，按季度預測這種情況實際上可能相當具有挑戰性。我認為我們的指導非常有效，因為我們始終在指導範圍內進行指導和執行。所以，恕我直言，我們或許沒有您想像的那麼精確，但我對業績指引的完整性以及公司在指引範圍內持續取得的業績感到非常滿意。

We'll take our next question from Edwin Mok with Needham & Company.

接下來，我們將回答 Needham & Company 的 Edwin Mok 提出的問題。

So I guess, just a quick follow-up to Wes' question. I think the general consensus is that China's spending will grow in '18.

所以，我想就韋斯的問題做一個簡短的後續回答。我認為普遍的共識是，中國2018年的支出將會成長。

We've lost you, Edwin.

我們失去你了，埃德溫。

The contribution from China.

來自中國的貢獻。

Edwin, ask your question again. Sorry, you broke up midway through there.

艾德溫，你再問一次你的問題。抱歉，你們中途分手了。

Sorry about that. I'm trying to understand how much China is contributing to your growth on 2018 within your expectation of mid- to high single-digit growth.

抱歉。我想了解在你們預期中高個位數成長的情況下，中國對你們 2018 年的成長貢獻有多大。

Too early for us to disclose at this point.

現在透露這些資訊還為時過早。

We'll give you better color on next year. I mean, it's a little bit early. Normally at this juncture, we wouldn't be talking about '18. We'll give you the normal color when we get to next quarter's earnings.

明年我們會為您帶來更好的色彩。我的意思是，現在有點早。通常情況下，到了這個時候，我們不會談論 2018 年。等到下個季度財報發佈時，我們會恢復正常的顏色。

Okay. All right. I think that's fine. So I guess, the follow-up question I have on EUV. There's a lot of talks about EUV adopting 7-nanometer. And I remember you guys have talked about developing some etch and deposition.

好的。好的。我覺得沒問題。所以，關於EUV，我還有一個後續問題。關於 EUV 採用 7 奈米製程的討論很多。我記得你們之前討論過開發一些蝕刻和沈積技術。

(technical difficulty)

（技術難題）

to help with challenges like line edge roughness. Is it possible you can give us some updates around that? Where do you stand in that? And do you think,,, that can potentially be a SAM expansion opportunity as EUVs are adopted?

有助於解決諸如線條邊緣粗糙度等問題。您能否提供一些關於這方面的最新進展？你對此持什麼立場？你認為隨著EUV技術的普及，這是否會成為SAM技術拓展的潛在機會？

I would say the basic message -- and I apologize again, we lost you mid-sentence, but the basic message of the company today around our opportunity in the context of an EUV implementation is almost identical to the scenarios we characterized in the investor and analyst meeting about a year ago. So the insertion plans of our customers appear to be consistent, and the balance of spacer-based patterning implementations in the industry appears reasonably consistent with the assumptions we made before. So I don't think we can give you anything better than we already did. I apologize.

我想說，基本訊息——再次抱歉，我們打斷了您的發言——公司今天圍繞 EUV 實施方面的機會所傳達的基本信息，幾乎與我們大約一年前在投資者和分析師會議上描述的情景完全相同。因此，我們客戶的插入方案似乎具有一致性，而產業中基於間隔物的圖案化所實現的平衡似乎與我們先前所做的假設相當一致。所以我覺得我們不可能給你們比現在更好的東西了。我道歉。

And we'll take our next question from Craig Ellis with B. Riley.

接下來，我們將回答 Craig Ellis 和 B. Riley 的問題。

I just wanted to follow-up with some of the China commentary with a clarification question. I think you mentioned that of the 18 greenfield fabs you're tracking, 12 are in China, and there's a split between domestic and global. But even looking at the number of domestic fabs the company has cited, that could mean that either that exposure is with some of the smaller fabs that are trailing-edge logic or they may be with some of the larger fabs. Can you clarify if you're participating with that number that you provided in some of the larger China fabs next year? Do you see those coming on thereafter?

我只是想就一些關於中國的評論提出一個澄清問題。我想你提到過，在你追蹤的 18 個新建晶圓廠中，有 12 個在中國，而且國內和國際晶圓廠之間存在差異。但即使只看該公司提到的國內晶圓廠的數量，也可能意味著這種風險敞口要么存在於一些規模較小的、採用落後邏輯技術的晶圓廠，要么存在於一些規模較大的晶圓廠。您能否澄清一下，您提供的那些數字是否會用於明年在中國的一些大型晶圓廠？你覺得之後還會出現這些嗎？

Yes is the answer to your question. It includes -- the reference of 8 includes the bigger domestic guys and the smaller domestic guys. It's memory and logic both. It's DRAM and flash. The flash investment is obviously materially greater than the DRAM investment in the context of market opportunity, primarily. But we are seeing the emergence, as we've talked about for some time, of investments by domestic customers in calendar '18, big and small, memory and logic. And it's still a fairly gradual implementation, so there's no pendulum swing, there's no paradigm shift. But there's a commencement of pilot-line investments and then transition out of pilot line into first phase, high-volume manufacturing. But the discipline that we all hope we are seeing to the best of our abilities today.

答案是肯定的。它包括—參考 8 包括體型較大的國內男性和體型較小的國內男性。它既涉及記憶也涉及邏輯。它是DRAM和快閃記憶體。從市場機會的角度來看，快閃記憶體投資顯然比 DRAM 投資大得多。但正如我們之前討論過的，我們看到國內客戶正在對 2018 年日曆進行投資，無論規模大小，包括記憶體和邏輯電路。而且這仍然是一個相當漸進的實施過程，所以沒有鐘擺式的擺動，也沒有典範轉移。但首先要進行試點生產線投資，然後從試點生產線過渡到第一階段的大量生產。但我們都希望今天能夠盡我們所能地展現紀律性。

And Craig, when we think about WFE and pilot investments that Martin was referencing, I mean, it's -- for the local guys, it's an incremental $1 billion or $2 billion in terms of total WFE. A lot of the activity continues to be, as it is this year, the global multinationals doing projects in China.

克雷格，當我們想到馬丁提到的 WFE 和試點投資時，我的意思是，對於本地企業來說，這相當於 WFE 總投資增加了 10 億或 20 億美元。與今年一樣，許多活動仍然是跨國公司在中國開展專案。

Got it. That's very helpful, guys. The follow-up is just regarding the comments for first half '18 shipments to be up meaningfully versus the second half of '17. And acknowledging, Martin, your point that the business is a hard-to-forecast business. I'm just wondering if there's any color that you can give us on linearity as we think about the first half of 2018 for the business.

知道了。這很有幫助，夥計們。後續內容僅針對 2018 年上半年出貨量較 2017 年下半年有顯著成長的評論。馬丁，我承認你的觀點，這個行業很難預測。我想知道，在考慮公司 2018 年上半年的業務發展時，您能否就線性發展給我們一些建議。

Yes, let me just clarify, Craig. What we said is first half '18, higher than second half '17. The meaningfully comment was relative to the March quarter, not necessarily the entire half. And it's really too soon for us to call linearity into next year. Again, that's something we typically would do at the end of the December quarter, and you can expect to hear from us then.

是的，克雷格，我再解釋一下。我們之前說過，2018 年上半年高於 2017 年下半年。這則有意義的評論是針對三月當季的，不一定是指整個上半年。現在就斷言明年將恢復線性成長還為時過早。通常情況下，我們會在 12 月底季度末進行這項工作，屆時您會收到我們的訊息。

And we'll take our next question from Tom Diffely with D. A. Davidson.

接下來，我們將接受湯姆·迪菲利和D·A·戴維森的提問。

Another question on the DRAM side of the market. You talked about how wafer starts are roughly flat from 2015. Do you expect them to go up over the next couple of years or mainly just going down to the sub 2 -- the 20-nanometer node?

關於DRAM市場方面，還有另一個問題。你提到晶圓開工量自 2015 年以來大致保持穩定。你認為未來幾年它們會上漲，還是主要下降到 2 奈米以下——也就是 20 奈米節點？

The planning assumption we have today is up a little, but it really is a little. And it will only go up a little if there's legitimate demand for devices that require that investment. So there really is no headline in terms of capacity expansion in DRAM unless there's a dramatic change to the demand statement for the segment. So it might go up and down a little bit, but it's basically a headline of technology conversion. And the technology conversions, to the point I made before, are less effective gradually in terms of delivering density per wafer out than was true 5 years ago. But they're still incrementally valuable, and our customers appear to be making lots of money manufacturing and selling those devices.

我們今天的規劃假設略有上升，但真的只是稍微上升而已。只有當市場對需要這種投資的設備有合理的需求時，價格才會小幅上漲。因此，除非DRAM市場的需求狀況發生巨大變化，否則DRAM產能擴張方面並沒有什麼值得關注的新聞。所以它可能會略有波動，但基本上就是技術轉型的頭條新聞。正如我之前提到的，技術轉換在提高每片晶圓的密度方面，其效果已逐漸不如 5 年前那麼好。但它們仍然具有一定的增值潛力，而且我們的客戶似乎透過製造和銷售這些設備賺了很多錢。

Okay. So when you look at 80% to 85% of the growth from memory next year, is that mainly NAND then?

好的。那麼，明年儲存裝置成長的 80% 到 85% 是否主要來自 NAND 快閃記憶體呢？

No, it's not, but I'm not going to give you specifics at this point in time. I felt like I was super extravagant with my 85% memory disclosure, so apparently you have a never-ending appetite for more. Unfortunately, I don't have a never-ending appetite to provide more, so if you'll just wait on that question until we get a little further into next year, we'd appreciate it.

不，不是的，但我現在不會透露具體細節。我覺得自己透露了 85% 的記憶已經非常慷慨了，看來你對更多記憶的渴望永無止境。很遺憾，我沒有無限的精力去提供更多內容，所以如果您能等到明年晚些時候再問這個問題，我們將不勝感激。

And that does conclude our question-and-answer session for today. I'd like to turn the conference back over to Satya for any additional or closing remarks.

今天的問答環節到此結束。我想把會議交還給薩蒂亞，讓他再做補充或總結演講。

Yes, thank you once again for joining us, and have a wonderful rest of the day.

是的，再次感謝您的參與，並祝您今天餘下的時間愉快。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, guys.

謝謝各位。

And once again, that does conclude today's presentation. We thank you all for your participation, and you may now disconnect.

今天的演講到此結束。感謝各位的參與，現在可以斷開連結了。