科林研發 (LRCX) 2017 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Lam Research Corporation March Quarter 2017 Conference Call.

大家好，歡迎參加 Lam Research Corporation 2017 年 3 月季度電話會議。

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Satya Kumar. Please go ahead, sir.

此時，我謹將會議交給薩蒂亞·庫馬爾先生。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to the Lam Research quarterly earnings conference call. With me today are Martin Anstice, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Doug Bettinger, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝大家，大家下午好。歡迎參加Lam Research季度財報電話會議。今天陪同我的是總裁兼執行長馬丁·安斯蒂斯，以及執行副總裁兼財務長道格·貝廷格。

During today's call, we will share our outlook on the business environment, review our financial results for the March 2017 quarter and our outlook for the June 2017 quarter. The press release detailing our financial results was distributed a little after 1 p.m. Pacific Time this afternoon. It can also be found on the Investor Relations section of the company's website, along with the presentation slides that accompany today's call.

在今天的電話會議上，我們將分享我們對商業環境的展望，回顧我們 2017 年 3 月季度的財務業績以及我們對 2017 年 6 月季度的展望。詳細介紹我們財務表現的新聞稿於下午1點剛過發布。太平洋時間今天下午。也可以在公司網站的投資者關係部分找到，以及今天電話會議的簡報。

Today's presentation and Q&A include forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties reflected in the risk factor disclosures of our SEC public filings. Please see accompanying slide in the presentation for additional information.

今天的演示和問答環節包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到風險和不確定性的影響，這些風險和不確定性已反映在我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的公開文件中的風險因素披露中。更多資訊請參閱簡報中的配套幻燈片。

Today's discussion of our financial results will be presented on a non-GAAP financial basis, unless otherwise specified. A detailed reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP results can be found today in our today's earnings press release.

除非另有說明，我們今天對財務績效的討論將以非公認會計準則（non-GAAP）財務報表為基礎。今天發布的盈利新聞稿中提供了 GAAP 和非 GAAP 結果的詳細調整表。

This call is scheduled to last until 3 p.m. Pacific Time, and as always we ask that you limit your questions to one per firm with a brief follow-up, so we can accommodate as many questions as possible. As a reminder, the replay of this call will be available later this afternoon on our website.

本次通話預計持續到下午3點。太平洋時間，我們一如既往地要求您每家公司只提一個問題，並附上簡短的後續問題，以便我們可以回答盡可能多的問題。再次提醒大家，本次電話會議的錄音將於今天下午稍晚在我們的網站上提供。

With that, let me hand the call over to Martin.

那麼，我把電話交給馬丁吧。

Thank you all for joining us today for our March 2017 quarterly earnings call. Stating the obvious, we are extremely pleased with the performance of the company that we reported and guided today. As challenging as it is to scale our company from an average calendar '16 quarterly output level by more than 40%, which is the reality of our $2.4 billion recent quarter shipments, it is gratifying to see the results of our collective efforts.

感謝各位今天參加我們2017年3月季度財報電話會議。毋庸置疑，我們對今天報告和指導的這家公司的表現感到非常滿意。儘管要將公司規模從 2016 年平均季度產量水準擴大 40% 以上（這是我們最近一個季度 24 億美元出貨量的實際情況），是一項挑戰，但看到我們共同努力的成果，我們感到非常欣慰。

Our strategy, the development of an increasingly critical and enabling product and services portfolio, our consistent execution across all functions of the company and, last but not least, the tremendous commitment of our employees and partners globally, are all necessary components of a multiyear outperformance story. It is a privilege to lead this company. And on behalf of the entire management team, I would like to thank everybody that contributed, the very same people that are creating, as we speak, the next world of opportunity in our future.

我們的策略、日益關鍵且具有賦能性的產品和服務組合的開發、公司所有職能部門的持續執行，以及最後但同樣重要的是，我們全球員工和合作夥伴的巨大投入，都是多年超額完成業績的必要組成部分。能夠領導這家公司是我的榮幸。我謹代表整個管理團隊，感謝所有做出貢獻的人，正是這些人，此刻正在為我們的未來創造下一個充滿機會的世界。

We delivered record financial results once again in the March quarter with shipments and revenue above the midpoint of our guidance and non-GAAP EPS above the high end of our guidance range. For all the reasons previously communicated and reinforced by our actual performance currently, we believe Lam is in an excellent position with our leadership and competency in etch, deposition and clean products and services to facilitate some of the most significant innovations in semiconductor device manufacturing for many years to come.

我們在三月的季度再次取得了創紀錄的財務業績，出貨量和收入均高於我們預期的中點，非GAAP每股收益也高於我們預期範圍的上限。鑑於先前溝通的所有原因以及我們目前的實際表現所證實的，我們相信，憑藉我們在蝕刻、沉積和清洗產品及服務方面的領導地位和能力，Lam 處於非常有利的地位，能夠在未來許多年內促進半導體裝置製造領域一些最重要的創新。

Turning to the broader industry environment, as stated already, the momentum of investment levels in the segments that we participate is net positive. Capacity addition and technology conversion trends appear rational and strategic, both elements leading to a strengthened outlook for the calendar year. Since our last earnings call, expectations for the year have improved. We are now guiding a first half shipments stronger than previously anticipated with a second half now slightly more balanced than the no better than 55-45 reference of the last earnings call. And the optimism that we have for sustainable technology demand trends is further strengthened by well-publicized plans throughout the electronics ecosystem. In short, silicon continues to sit at the very center of long-term electronics technology and applications innovation. That is the fundamental opportunity for our industry, and specifically, for Lam Research. Market trends and our initial modeling indicate continued strength of WFE in 2018 also.

從更廣泛的行業環境來看，正如前面所述，我們所參與的各個領域的投資水平勢頭總體上是積極的。產能增加和技術轉換趨勢看起來合理且具有戰略意義，這兩個因素都增強了本年度的前景。自上次財報電話會議以來，市場對今年的預期有所改善。我們現在預計上半年出貨量將強於先前預期，下半年出貨量將比上次財報電話會議中預測的 55-45 更為平衡。整個電子生態系統中廣為人知的計劃進一步增強了我們對永續技術需求趨勢的樂觀態度。簡而言之，矽仍然是長期電子技術和應用創新的核心。這是我們這個行業，特別是 Lam Research 的根本機會。市場趨勢和我們的初步模型表明，WFE 在 2018 年也將繼續保持強勁勢頭。

Memory company cash flows, memory unit pricing and the implied commentary on supply-and-demand balance are broadly well analyzed and reported at this point. We have no incremental perspective to share at this time. Demand continues to be strong for NAND in the SSD and embedded markets, driving increased spending activity for NAND in 2017. We expect total 3D NAND shipped capacity at year-end to represent slightly more than the 50% of the installed base with a balance of greenfield and conversion investments this year.

目前，記憶體公司的現金流量、記憶體單元定價以及對供需平衡的隱含評論都得到了較全面的分析和報告。目前我們沒有新的見解可以分享。SSD 和嵌入式市場對 NAND 的需求仍然強勁，推動了 2017 年 NAND 支出活動的成長。我們預計到年底，3D NAND 總出貨容量將略高於已安裝基數的 50%，今年的新建項目和改造項目將保持平衡。

In DRAM, we continue to anticipate double-digit growth in equipment spending calendar '17 year-over-year with investments being dominated by technology conversions. We now model a modest growth in foundry and logic spending combined as leading-edge devices increasingly meet performance targets and adoption criteria for the broad range of advanced computation market needs. These additional investments are focused primarily at the 10-nanometer technology node this year.

在 DRAM 領域，我們繼續預期 2017 年設備支出將年增兩位數，投資主要集中在技術轉換方面。我們現在預測，隨著尖端元件越來越能滿足先進運算市場廣泛需求的性能目標和採用標準，代工和邏輯元件支出將出現溫和成長。今年的這些額外投資主要集中在 10 奈米技術節點。

Overall, we believe calendar '17 wafer fabrication equipment spending, and to a greater extent, our SAM and our own business levels are all tracking positively against previously stated expectations.

總體而言，我們認為 2017 年晶圓製造設備支出，以及我們的 SAM 和我們自身的業務水平，都比之前所述的預期更為樂觀。

The intended headlines today for the company are clear, we hope. We continue to invest in the positioning of enabling technology, products and services with benchmark level R&D funding approaching 2/3 of our overall operating expenses in support of our customers? plans and to build sustainable value for Lam Research. We are actively working to enhance the competitive differentiation momentum of 5 years of profitable growth averaging an 18% revenue CAGR with calendar '17 expected to be our most significant revenue, profit and cash-generation growth year yet this decade. With the anticipated business plans of our customers, their equipment selections already made and the continued operational execution standard of Lam, we have every confidence in our industry outperformance potential long term. We have singular focus on our corporate strategy and vision that we consider compelling for all stakeholders. Specifically, we believe that our intuitive focus on customer trust and a collaborative culture, a flexible business model and a resolve to invest strategically in our long-term success with a commitment to return excess cash to our shareholders all combine to create a rewarding opportunity. Last but not least, we believe that the secular demand trends and outlook for the world of technology and electronics applications are more compelling than ever with a silicon road map and the role of Lam Research, front and center.

我們希望，該公司今天想要發布的新聞標題已經很明確了。我們持續投資於賦能技術、產品和服務的定位，研發資金投入達到產業領先水平，接近我們整體營運支出的三分之二，以支持我們的客戶。制定計劃並為 Lam Research 創造永續價值。我們正積極努力增強競爭優勢，以期在過去 5 年中維持獲利成長，平均營收複合年增長率達 18%。預計 2017 年將是我們本十年來營收、利潤和現金流成長最為顯著的一年。鑑於客戶的預期業務計劃、他們已經做出的設備選擇以及 Lam 持續的營運執行標準，我們對長期超越行業的潛力充滿信心。我們始終專注於我們認為對所有利害關係人具有吸引力的企業策略和願景。具體而言，我們相信，我們對客戶信任和協作文化的直覺式關注、靈活的商業模式以及對長期成功進行策略性投資並致力於將盈餘現金返還給股東的決心，所有這些因素結合起來，創造了一個回報豐厚的機會。最後但同樣重要的是，我們認為，隨著矽晶片路線圖的發展和 Lam Research 的作用日益凸顯，科技和電子應用領域的長期需求趨勢和前景比以往任何時候都更加令人矚目。

With that, let me turn the call over to Doug.

那麼，現在讓我把電話交給道格。

Okay. Thanks, Martin. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today for our March 2017 quarterly earnings call. The March quarter represented a solid start to the calendar year. We delivered record levels of shipments, revenue, gross margin dollars, operating income dollars and earnings per share. Each of these metrics grew double digits quarter-over-quarter. Financial performance was above the midpoint of guidance for all metrics with operating margin and earnings per share above the high end of the range we provided to you last quarter.

好的。謝謝你，馬丁。各位下午好，感謝各位今天參加我們2017年3月季度財報電話會議。三月的季度業績為新的一年開了個好頭。我們實現了出貨量、收入、毛利、營業收入和每股盈餘的歷史新高。這些指標均實現了兩位數的環比成長。財務業績在所有指標上均高於預期中位數，其中營業利潤率和每股收益均高於我們上季度向您提供的範圍上限。

Shipments for the quarter were strong at $2.413 billion, which was up 25% sequentially, and again, above the midpoint of the guided range. Memory shipments were very strong in the quarter as customers continued their investments in 3D NAND capacity. Our customers are investing in new 3D wafers. They're converting planar to 3D, and they're also embarking on 3D technology conversions to increase layer count.

本季出貨量強勁，達到 24.13 億美元，季增 25%，再次高於預期範圍的中點。本季記憶體出貨量非常強勁，因為客戶繼續投資於 3D NAND 產能。我們的客戶正在投資新型 3D 晶圓。他們正在將平面轉換為 3D，他們也正在著手進行 3D 技術轉換以增加層數。

NAND demand continues to be strong driven by growth in enterprise and client SSDs as well as mobile device density increases. The combined Memory segment represented 73% of total system level shipments, and that compares with 61% in the prior quarter. Memory shipments were weighted heavily towards the non-volatile segment, which represented 50% of shipments in the March quarter compared with 37% in the prior quarter.

受企業和客戶端固態硬碟成長以及行動裝置密度提高的推動，NAND 需求持續強勁。合併後的記憶體業務佔系統級總出貨量的 73%，而上一季這一比例為 61%。記憶體出貨量主要集中在非揮發性記憶體領域，3 月季度非揮發性記憶體出貨量佔總出貨量的 50%，而上一季這一比例為 37%。

DRAM shipments grew 24% sequentially in dollar terms and made up 23% of system shipments. DRAM shipments comprised 24% of system shipments in the December quarter. We're seeing an uptick in DRAM spending in line with improving demand and content growth from areas such as smartphones and servers. DRAM spending is largely focused on conversions, with the majority being conversions to the 1x-nanometer node.

以美元計算，DRAM 出貨量較上季成長 24%，佔系統出貨量的 23%。12 月季度，DRAM 出貨量佔系統出貨量的 24%。隨著智慧型手機和伺服器等領域的需求不斷增長和內容成長，我們看到 DRAM 支出也在增加。DRAM 的支出主要集中在轉換方面，其中大部分是向 1x 奈米節點的轉換。

The Foundry segment was flattish sequentially in dollar terms, accounting for 24% of system shipments. Foundry spending was a combination of leading-edge 10-nanometer capacity, initial 7-nanometer pilot investments as well as continued spending at 28-nanometer and above with the latter being primarily focused in China.

以美元計算，晶圓製造部門的銷售額環比基本持平，佔系統出貨量的 24%。晶圓代工支出包括領先的 10 奈米產能、最初的 7 奈米試點投資以及持續的 28 奈米及以上產能的支出，其中後者主要集中在中國。

And finally, the Logic and Other segment contributed 3% of system shipments.

最後，邏輯和其他部分佔系統出貨量的 3%。

Revenue came in at $2.154 billion in the March quarter, which was up roughly 14% from the December quarter. Gross margin for the period came in at 46.1%, above the midpoint of our guidance.

3 月季度營收為 21.54 億美元，比 12 月季度成長約 14%。本期毛利率為 46.1%，高於我們預期的中位數。

And as I've shared with you before, our gross margins are a function of a number of factors such as overall business volumes, product mix and customer concentration, so you will see variability quarter-to-quarter. And I'd just like to remind you that our financial model is still the best way to think about our ongoing profitability performance.

正如我之前與你們分享的那樣，我們的毛利率會受到多種因素影響，例如整體業務量、產品組合和客戶集中度，因此你會看到每個季度都有波動。我還要提醒各位，我們的財務模型仍然是衡量我們持續獲利能力的最佳方式。

Operating expenses in the quarter grew as we knew they would to $414 million. This compares to $384 million in the December quarter. Operating expense as a percent of revenue decreased to 19% compared to 20% in the prior quarter. And as Martin pointed out, the majority of our OpEx spending continues to be allocated to funding our critical R&D programs.

本季營運支出如預期成長至 4.14 億美元。相較之下，去年12月當季的營收為3.84億美元。營業費用佔收入的百分比從上一季的 20% 下降至 19%。正如馬丁指出的那樣，我們的大部分營運支出仍然用於資助我們關鍵的研發項目。

Operating income in the March quarter came in at $578 million, and that compares to $490 million in the prior quarter. Operating margin was 26.9%, above the high end of the guided range.

3 月季度的營業收入為 5.78 億美元，而上一季為 4.9 億美元。營業利益率為 26.9%，高於預期範圍的上限。

The tax rate for the quarter was 12% compared with 15% last quarter. The tax rate in the March quarter was favorably impacted by the release of tax liabilities from the conclusion of certain tax matters. Additionally, we had a reserve release related to the Novellus acquisition that is included in the GAAP results. A tax rate in the low to mid-teens for the remainder of 2017 would be reasonable for you to use in your earnings models.

本季稅率為12%，而上季為15%。3 月季度的稅率受到有利影響，因為某些稅務事項的解決釋放了稅款負債。此外，我們還有與Novellus收購相關的準備金釋放，該準備金已計入GAAP結果。對於您的收入模型而言，2017 年剩餘時間的稅率在十幾到二十幾的低稅率範圍內是合理的。

Based on a share count of approximately 182 million shares, earnings per share for the March quarter totaled $2.80, above the guided range. This share count includes dilution on a non-GAAP basis from both the 2018 and 2041 convertible notes with a total dilutive impact of about 16 million shares. And I'll remind you that dilution schedules for the 2018 and 2041 convertible notes are available on our Investor Relations website for your reference.

根據約 1.82 億股的股數計算，3 月季度的每股盈餘總計為 2.80 美元，高於預期範圍。該股份數量包括 2018 年和 2041 年可轉換票據的非 GAAP 稀釋，總稀釋影響約 1,600 萬股。我還要提醒各位，2018 年和 2041 年可轉換債券的稀釋時間表已發佈在我們的投資者關係網站上，供您參考。

This quarter, we returned $213 million to our shareholders, $73 million in dividend distributions and $140 million in share repurchases. We took delivery of 1.2 million shares at an average price of $114.30. We've completed approximately 20% of our current $1 billion share repurchase authorization, and I?ll let you know that we plan to initiate a $500 million accelerated share repurchase program in the June quarter.

本季度，我們向股東返還了 2.13 億美元，其中 7,300 萬美元用於股息分配，1.4 億美元用於股票回購。我們以平均每股 114.30 美元的價格接收了 120 萬股股票。我們已完成目前 10 億美元股票回購授權的約 20%，我還要告訴大家，我們計劃在 6 月啟動一項 5 億美元的加速股票回購計畫。

Now let me turn to the balance sheet. We continue to have both a solid cash position and healthy cash generation. Cash and short-term investments, including restricted cash, increased modestly to $6.140 billion at the end of the quarter. Cash from operations was $423 million, and that compares to $404 million in December.

現在讓我來看資產負債表。我們繼續保持穩健的現金儲備和健康的現金流。截至本季末，現金及短期投資（包括受限現金）小幅增加至 61.4 億美元。經營活動產生的現金流量為 4.23 億美元，而 12 月為 4.04 億美元。

DSO held steady at 69 days in the March quarter, the same level as in December.

3 月季度應收帳款週轉天數 (DSO) 保持穩定在 69 天，與 12 月的水平相同。

Inventory turns were 4.2, which was up slightly from 4.1 in the prior quarter. This turns number is the highest we've achieved since we've combined Lam with Novellus.

庫存週轉率為 4.2，比上一季的 4.1 略有上升。這是自 Lam 與 Novellus 合併以來我們取得的最高回合數。

We exited the quarter with deferred revenues of $842 million, which was up from $673 million in December. This amount excludes $260 million in shipments to customers in Japan, which will revenue in future quarters. These Japanese shipments are up from $129 million in the December quarter. And I'll just remind you that these Japanese shipments remain on our balance sheet as inventory carried at cost. And I'll just do the math for you. I'd like to point out that this combined deferred shipment bucket now stands at $1.1 billion, and it grew 37% in the March quarter. I expect deferred revenue will grow again in the June quarter.

本季末，我們的遞延營收為 8.42 億美元，高於 12 月的 6.73 億美元。該金額不包括向日本客戶發貨的 2.6 億美元，這部分收入將在未來幾季計入。這些來自日本的出貨量較去年12月季度的1.29億美元有所成長。我還要提醒各位，這些日本貨物的出貨仍作為庫存以成本計入我們的資產負債表。我來幫你算算看。我想指出，目前這部分延期出貨總額已達 11 億美元，在 3 月的季度中成長了 37%。我預計六月季度遞延收入將再次成長。

Company noncash expenses for the quarter included the following: $35 million for equity comp, $38 million for amortization and $38 million for depreciation. Capital expenditures were $44 million, which was up from $37 million in the December quarter.

該季度公司非現金支出包括：股權補償 3,500 萬美元，攤提 3,800 萬美元，折舊 3,800 萬美元。資本支出為 4,400 萬美元，高於去年 12 月季度的 3,700 萬美元。

We ended the quarter with approximately 8,600 regular full-time employees, which was up about 400 from the end of the December quarter. The increase in headcount was in support of our growing business levels, primarily in the operations and field organizations. Additionally, we're bringing on board the talent required to execute on our forward-looking R&D programs.

本季末，我們約有 8,600 名正式全職員工，比 12 月底的季度末增加了約 400 人。增加員工人數是為了支持我們不斷增長的業務水平，主要是在營運和現場組織方面。此外，我們正在引進執行我們前瞻性研發專案所需的人才。

Now looking ahead, I'd like to provide you our guidance -- our non-GAAP guidance for the June quarter. We're expecting another record shipment of $2.500 billion, plus or minus $100 million. We're expecting record revenue of $2.300 billion, plus or minus $100 million. We're forecasting gross margin of 46%, plus or minus 1 percentage point. And we're forecasting operating margins of 27%, plus or minus 1 percentage point. And finally, we're forecasting earnings per share of $3.00, plus or minus $0.12 based on a share count of approximately 180 million shares.

展望未來，我想向大家提供我們的業績指引—我們對六月季度的非GAAP業績指引。我們預計出貨量將再次創下25,000億美元的紀錄，上下浮動1億美元。我們預計營收將達到創紀錄的 23 億美元，上下浮動 1 億美元。我們預測毛利率為 46%，上下浮動 1 個百分點。我們預測營業利益率為 27%，上下浮動 1 個百分點。最後，我們預測每股收益為 3.00 美元，上下浮動 0.12 美元，基於約 1.8 億股的股票數量。

We're obviously pleased with our performance this quarter and with the guidance we've just shared for the June quarter. Our business has never been stronger financially, and we're continuing to execute extremely well. We're in the right place at the right time, with the right products. We're partnering with our customers to enable the transitions happening within the industry today, and we're making the investments required to sustain our business long term.

我們顯然對本季的業績以及剛發布的六月季度業績預期感到滿意。我們的財務狀況從未如此強勁，而且我們的營運也一直非常出色。我們恰逢其時，擁有合適的產品，出現在了合適的地點。我們正與客戶合作，以推動當前行業正在發生的轉型，並且我們正在進行必要的投資，以維持我們業務的長期發展。

Operator, that concludes my prepared remarks. Martin and I would now like to open up the call for questions.

操作員，我的發言到此結束。馬丁和我現在想開始接受提問。

(Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question from Stephen Chin with UBS Bank.

（操作員指示）我們首先來回答瑞銀集團的 Stephen Chin 提出的問題。

My first question is just on your early outlook for the 2018 industry wafer fab equipment spending. Does 2018 appear to be another growth year for WFE because of indigenous China? Or is it just continued spend by incumbents in foundry and memory logic?

我的第一個問題是關於您對 2018 年晶圓製造設備產業支出的初步展望。2018年對於WFE來說是否又是成長年，是因為中國本土市場的成長嗎？還是只是現有企業在晶圓代工和儲存邏輯領域的持續投入？

I think if I try to answer that definitively, I'd be a little bit misleading. I think that it's still early days. But based on the data points that we see today, Stephen, we see sustainability in the context of the discipline of capital investments, the relative balance and stability between kind of supply and demand as best we can tell in the industry, and particularly, on the last part of your question, the China story, the domestic China story, at least, we believe is more of a calendar '18 investment than calendar '17. So really our comments about discipline in capacity additions and what we think are pretty compelling and exciting and sustainable long-term demand trends. But the end of the day, if that plays out as it is more generally described today, the investment will follow.

我認為如果我試圖給出明確的答案，可能會有點誤導。我認為現在下結論還為時過早。但根據我們今天看到的數據點，史蒂芬，我們認為永續性與資本投資的紀律、供需之間的相對平衡和穩定性（就我們目前對行業的了解而言）密切相關，尤其是在你問題的最後一部分，關於中國市場，至少就中國國內市場而言，我們認為它更像是2018年的投資，而不是2017年的投資。所以，我們實際上是在評論產能擴張的紀律性，以及我們認為相當有說服力、令人興奮且可持續的長期需求趨勢。但歸根究底，如果事情真是像今天普遍描述的那樣發展，投資也會隨之而來。

Okay. Just a quick follow-up on memory CapEx to sales trends. It sounds like memory fundamentals are healthy. And historically, we've seen memory industry have a CapEx-to-sales ratio of 30% to 35%. Do you think that CapEx-to-sales ratio is still a good sustainable scenario for the market? Or is it likely that CapEx to sales could go higher in light of the scalability issues with 3D NAND and slowing DRAM transition?

好的。關於記憶體資本支出與銷售趨勢的簡要後續說明。聽起來記憶力基礎很健康。從歷史資料來看，記憶體產業的資本支出與銷售額之比通常在 30% 到 35% 之間。您認為目前的資本支出與銷售額比率對市場而言仍然是一個良好的可持續水平嗎？或者，考慮到 3D NAND 的可擴展性問題和 DRAM 過渡速度放緩，資本支出與銷售額之比是否有可能更高？

Honestly, Stephen, I've never been a really big fan of capital-intensity ratios because I think it kind of whipsaws us around in terms of the analytics in any 1 quarter. And the reality is the economic of an addition in new capacity is a very different economic than a conversion. We're pretty agnostic in the NAND space to how our customers execute those plans, as we previously described. And in terms of wafer starts, it looks to us like the investments of this year are kind of pretty balanced between greenfield and conversion. So we look to the sustainability question more in terms of kind of balance of bit growth demand and our understanding of supply additions, and I think kind of the market generally is telling that story. So I don't really have anything to tell you that will cause the future to be very different from the past in terms of that particular metric.

說實話，史蒂芬，我一直不太喜歡資本密集度比率，因為我認為它會讓我們在任何季度的分析中產生很大的波動。事實上，新增產能的經濟效益與改造產能的經濟效益截然不同。正如我們之前所述，在 NAND 領域，我們對客戶如何執行這些計劃持相當中立的態度。就晶圓開工量而言，我們認為今年的投資在新建案和改造工程之間相當平衡。因此，我們更多地從需求成長和我們對供應增加的理解之間的平衡角度來看待永續性問題，我認為市場總體上也印證了這一點。所以，就這個特定指標而言，我沒有什麼可以告訴你的，會導致未來與過去有很大的不同。

The only thing I'd point out, Stephen, is obviously you know what memory revenue is likely to be this year. It's super strong, right. And so the -- you always have to think about affordability. And clearly, the levels that are going on today are affordable given how strong revenue in memory is.

史蒂芬，我唯一想指出的是，你顯然知道今年記憶體業務的收入可能會是多少。它非常堅固，對吧。所以——你總是要考慮價格承受能力。顯然，考慮到記憶體行業強勁的收入，目前的定價水準是可以接受的。

Our next question comes from Timothy Arcuri with Cowen & Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Cowen & Company 的 Timothy Arcuri。

I guess the first question, Doug, is for you. Just looking out into the third calendar quarter, it looks like you guys said a little -- used words a little more balanced than what the 55-45 was. So maybe it sounds like second half of the year shipments is down something like maybe 10% half on half. So that would sort of say 4.5 billion shipments in the back half of the year, so maybe 2.2 billion to 2.3 billion in the third calendar quarter. Is that like roughly the right math?

我想第一個問題應該要問你，道格。從第三季的情況來看，你們的措辭似乎比之前的 55-45 更平衡一些。所以聽起來好像下半年的出貨量比上半年下降了約 10%。所以，下半年的出貨量大概是 45 億，第三季可能達到 22 億到 23 億。這樣算大致對嗎？

Yes. I mean, we're -- Tim, as you know, we guide one quarter a time, and when we give you a little bit of color, which is what Martin did when he said a little more balanced than the 55-45. And there's also a reason I gave you the deferred revenue number, so you can think about how that likely transpires through the year. I'm not going to guide the third calendar quarter or the fourth, but I think we've given you enough to model it pretty closely.

是的。我的意思是，我們——蒂姆，你知道，我們每次指導一個季度，當我們給你一些色彩時，就像馬丁所做的那樣，他說比 55-45 更平衡一些。我給你遞延收入數據也是有原因的，這樣你就可以思考這在一年中可能會如何發展。我不會對第三季或第四季的情況做出預測，但我認為我們已經提供了足夠的信息，讓你們可以進行相當精確的模擬。

Maybe just kind of 2 things to add quickly. I think our outlook today at least would cause us to believe that the December quarter is our weakest shipments quarter of the year, so that's kind of one extra data point. Another one is just kind of plain simple math of the disclosure we've given. So the sum of our actual performance and our guidance today is the first half shipment of $4.9 billion. You will, I'm sure, all make your own judgments about how much better the balance is than we previously described. But if you just use the math of 55-45 as a proxy, then the shipments for the year is approximately $8.9 billion. And in a ramping year, the revenues lag the shipments. So I think that those numbers are the ones that we are kind of intending you to embrace.

或許只需要快速補充兩點。我認為，至少就我們目前的展望而言，12 月季度是我們一年中出貨量最低的季度，所以這算是額外的數據點。另一個問題只是對我們已披露的資訊進行簡單的數學計算。因此，我們實際業績與今天給出的預期總和為上半年出貨額 49 億美元。我相信，你們都會自行判斷這種平衡比我們之前描述的要好多少。但如果你只使用 55-45 的計算結果作為近似值，那麼今年的出貨量約為 89 億美元。在業務成長旺季，營收往往落後於出貨量。所以我認為，這些數字正是我們希望你們接受的。

Perfect. Okay. And then I just had a question about the deferred revenue balance, Doug, which you were talking about before. I mean, you guys are now up to about 1.7 months. If I look into June, you're going to have about 1.7 months if you add Japan plus the deferred -- the regular balance. And it starts to look a little like the old Lam, sort of in terms of backlog, not the new short lead time Lam. Is there a dynamic there? Maybe you're shipping more new products or there's something happening in NAND? And sort of can you help us understand what sort of catch-up we should see? Because obviously you're going to revenue a lot more than you'll ship during the back half of the year.

完美的。好的。然後，我還有一個關於遞延收入餘額的問題，Doug，就是你之前提到的那個。我的意思是，你們現在已經堅持了大約 1.7 個月了。如果我查看六月的情況，加上日本的款項以及延期支付的款項，也就是正常餘額，你大概還有 1.7 個月的時間。它看起來有點像以前的 Lam，某種程度上是指積壓訂單，而不是新的短交付週期 Lam。這其中是否存在某種動態關係？或許你們正在推出更多新產品，或是NAND快閃記憶體領域發生了什麼變化？您能否幫助我們了解我們應該看到什麼樣的追趕？很顯然，下半年你的收入會遠遠超過你的出貨量。

Yes. It's pretty simple to think through this, Tim. When you've got shipments that are growing the way we have the last several quarters, revenue almost always lags that growth in shipments. When shipments level off or if they were to decline sequentially, revenue will catch up. It's just sort of natural progression of the timing between when something shows up at the customer's dock and it gets into acceptance in revenue.

是的。蒂姆，這其實很容易理解。過去幾個季度以來，我們的出貨量一直保持成長勢頭，但營收的成長幾乎總是落後於出貨量的成長。當出貨量趨於平穩或逐週下降時，收入將會趕上。這只是貨物到達客戶碼頭到最終轉化為收入之間時間的自然發展過程。

But specifically to your question, Tim, there's no kind of headline for us in terms of the time lines for ship to install. And therefore, acceptance of revenues...

但具體到你的問題，提姆，就船舶安裝的時間表而言，我們目前還沒有任何確切的消息。因此，接受收入…

It's the same, yes.

是的，是一樣的。

In any 1 quarter, and you don't get to see this unfortunately. But the specific scheduling of shipments in any 1 week or on any 1 day of any 1 month, I mean, that kind of jerks the ratios around, so there's no real story here in terms of kind of changing dynamic of time lines.

在任何一個季度裡，你都看不到這一點，很遺憾。但是，任何一周或任何一個月中的任何一天的具體發貨安排，都會對比例造成一定影響，因此，就時間線的動態變化而言，這裡並沒有什麼真正的故事可講。

Our next question comes from Patrick Ho with Stifel, Nicolaus.

下一個問題來自 Stifel Nicolaus 的 Patrick Ho。

First off, in terms of your comments about a more balanced 2017 between first half and second half, is there any one specific market segment that's driving this better balance? Or is it a confluence of all the markets you've mentioned in your prepared remarks?

首先，關於您提到的 2017 年上半年和下半年更加平衡的說法，是否有某個特定的細分市場推動了這種更好的平衡？或者，這是您在準備好的發言稿中提到的所有市場的匯合點？

Well, maybe I'll break that into 2 parts. So what changed for us between this earnings call and the last earnings call, if you look at kind of the expansion in the business that we've reported and we're anticipating, approximately 2/3 of that is in the NAND space and 1/3 is in foundry logic. So that would, at least, tell you that, to the assumptions we made and disclosed previously, there's no real headline in terms of DRAM. So that would be the first part of -- or maybe the most helpful part of answering your question. Maybe I'll stop there. Did I get what you wanted?

嗯，或許我會把它分成兩個部分。那麼，從這次財報電話會議到上次財報電話會議，我們又發生了哪些變化呢？如果你看一下我們已經報告和預期中的業務擴張情況，大約 2/3 是 NAND 領域，1/3 是代工邏輯領域。所以至少可以肯定的是，根據我們之前做出的假設和披露的信息，DRAM 方面並沒有什麼真正的頭條新聞。所以，這應該是回答你的問題的第一部分——或者說，可能是最有幫助的部分。或許我就此打住吧。我收到你想要的了嗎？

Yes. Actually, that's very helpful, Martin. And my follow-up question maybe for Doug in terms of the ramp-up of shipments you've talked about. You've kept your supply chain at really optimum levels with inventory and even AR. What are some of, I guess, the nuances or the tricks that you're keeping the supply chain as tight and efficient as it's been, particularly as shipments continue to ramp up over these last few quarters?

是的。這真的很有幫助，馬丁。我還有一個後續問題想問道格，關於你剛才提到的出貨量增加的問題。你們的庫存和應收帳款管理都保持在非常優化的供應鏈水準。我想請問，在過去幾季出貨量持續成長的情況下，你們是如何保持供應鏈的緊密性和高效性的？

I mean, it's continued focused on just managing our remote factories, managing our own internal facilities and anticipating what we were going to need to be able to support at this point months and months ago and communicating that our supply chain partners, Patrick. I mean, it's operational excellence the way Lam has always executed just at a different scale here.

我的意思是，我們一直專注於管理我們的遠端工廠，管理我們自己的內部設施，並在幾個月前就預測到我們需要哪些支援才能達到現在的水平，並與我們的供應鏈合作夥伴帕特里克溝通。我的意思是，這仍然是林先生一貫的卓越運營，只是規模不同而已。

And just adding, I would say honest hard work. And when you hear us talk about our -- the -- our customer trust orientation, when you hear us talk about collaborative and partnership orientations, that's pretty fundamental relative to sustaining your ability to perform and execute with the level of variability that is part of our business through the consolidation of our customers in the last several years. So our supply chain and our own factory and our field service engineers have done a tremendous job scaling in a very short period of time, and we continue to be proactive, as proactive as we can be based on our visibility to ensure that investments are kind of made ahead of the need to support and service our customers. And competitively, as best I can tell, we're doing just fine.

補充一點，我認為誠實勤奮也很重要。當您聽到我們談論我們的客戶信任導向，當您聽到我們談論協作和夥伴關係導向時，這對於維持您在過去幾年客戶整合過程中業務波動性方面的能力至關重要。因此，我們的供應鏈、我們自己的工廠和我們的現場服務工程師在很短的時間內就取得了巨大的規模化成果，我們將繼續積極主動，盡可能根據我們的可視性來確保在需要支援和服務客戶之前進行投資。就我所知，從競技層面來說，我們表現得相當不錯。

Our next question comes from Krish Sankar with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

下一個問題來自美國銀行美林證券的 Krish Sankar。

I have 2 of them. The first one for Martin, your NAND shipments are at record highs, and 3D NAND spending is robust. I'm just curious if the pricing for NAND rolls over, will the reality of economics weaken and the 3D NAND makers might scale back CapEx? Or do you think the demand is strong enough to continue investing in capacity? And then I had a follow-up.

我有兩個。首先是給 Martin 的，你的 NAND 出貨量創歷史新高，3D NAND 支出也很強。我只是好奇，如果 NAND 的價格保持不變，經濟現實是否會惡化，3D NAND 製造商是否會縮減資本支出？還是您認為市場需求夠強勁，值得繼續投資擴大產能？然後我還有後續跟進。

Yes. I mean, I think one of our headlines, obviously, is there's a long way to go with the NAND story. And as I know you understand extremely well, the economics of that device architecture are one of the most relevant parts to the penetration of SSDs and so on and so forth. So I mean, there's a positive for every negative. We see a long way to go. We see compelling demand drivers for that architecture. And as we've described a number of times, particularly in critical applications, the high-volume manufacturing position of Lam in that inflection is outstanding. That's the best word that I could use to describe the position that we've worked hard to achieve and sustain. So there is a long way to go. And as best we can tell, commitment to technology and sustainability to investment. Will it go up and down along the way? For sure. But long term, feels pretty good.

是的。我的意思是，很顯然，我們的頭條新聞之一是，NAND 的故事還有很長的路要走。而且我知道您非常清楚，這種設備架構的經濟性是影響固態硬碟普及率等諸多因素的最相關部分之一。所以我的意思是，任何負面因素都有其正面的一面。我們看到還有很長的路要走。我們看到了這種架構的強勁需求驅動因素。正如我們多次描述的那樣，尤其是在關鍵應用領域，Lam 在該轉折點的大批量生產地位非常突出。這是我能用來形容我們努力取得並保持的這種地位的最佳詞語。所以還有很長的路要走。據我們所知，對技術和永續發展的承諾體現在投資上。它會一路上下波動嗎？一定。但從長遠來看，感覺還不錯。

Got you. That's very helpful, Martin. And then a follow-up for Doug. Doug, you mentioned in your comments that the headcount addition for new product development. I'm kind of curious, is this because these new products you're developing you don't have the core competency within Lam, i.e., full wafer deposition or etch-related technologies and is it why you're hiring? Or am I just reading too much into it?

抓到你了。這很有幫助，馬丁。然後是給道格的後續問題。道格，你在評論中提到，增加人手是為了新產品開發。我有點好奇，這是因為你們正在開發的這些新產品在 Lam 公司內部缺乏核心競爭力，例如全晶圓沉積或蝕刻相關技術，所以你們才招募嗎？還是我想太多了？

Yes, you're reading too much into it, Krish. I mean, any time you're doing more this year than you did last year, you need more people to execute that. That's the statement around R&D. The biggest area of increase in headcount, though, Krish, is operations as well as the field who are shipping product real time and installing it at the customer's facility.

是的，克里什，你想太多了。我的意思是，如果你今年的工作量比去年大，你就需要更多的人來執行這項工作。這就是關於研發的說法。不過，克里什，人員成長最多的領域是營運部門以及現場人員，他們負責即時出貨並在客戶現場進行安裝。

And maybe just to add to that, let's kind of go back to the disclosure of the last earnings call because there's 2 stories in the company. One of them is the story of creating a road map of product and technology that was relevant for inflections, anticipating how those inflections would have a concentration of spending to etch and deposition particularly. The second part of it was building the competitiveness of the portfolio we have, so we get a bigger share of it. And we gave 2 very important headlines in the last earnings call. One of them was a statement about our Foundry business growth, and we characterized the growth in our Foundry business year-over-year '16, '15 of 40% compared to a 25% WFE reference. And we also stated that in NAND, we grew our shipments by 80% year-over-year, almost twice the rate of WFE growth. So the headcount of the company is a life cycle statement. You add headcount when you're prepared to do that, and you add headcount when you're in the middle of doing it. And to some extent through the lifetime in an installed base business, the tail will demand at certain points adding additional headcounts for many years to come. And that's a natural commentary on the evolution of the company.

或許還可以補充一點，讓我們回顧一下上次財報電話會議的揭露情況，因為公司裡有兩個故事。其中一個故事是關於制定與轉折點相關的產品和技術路線圖，預測這些轉折點將如何集中支出，尤其是在蝕刻和沈積方面。第二部分是提升我們現有投資組合的競爭力，以便我們能夠獲得更大的市場份額。我們在上次財報電話會議上發布了兩條非常重要的消息。其中一份聲明是關於我們鑄造業務的成長，我們指出，與 WFE 25% 的參考值相比，我們 2016 年和 2015 年的鑄造業務同比增長了 40%。我們也表示，在 NAND 領域，我們的出貨量年增了 80%，幾乎是 WFE 成長率的兩倍。因此，公司的員工人數是一個生命週期指標。當你準備好增加人手時，你可以增加人手；當你正在做某事時，你也可以增加人手。在某種程度上，在已安裝客戶群的業務的整個生命週期中，尾部客戶群會在某些時候要求在未來很多年內增加額外的人員配置。這自然是對公司發展歷程的一種詮釋。

Our next question comes from Farhan Ahmad with Cr?dit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Farhan Ahmad。

I had a question in terms of the sustainability. The year-on-year growth that you're seeing is quite impressive in the first half of this year. Now if I look back more recently since maybe 2010, the cyclicality of the business has gone down. And that has also implied that like year-on-year compares have not been that great. So the fact that you're having too much growth right now, is that a concern in your mind in any way? And should that bring concerns of cyclicality back into the industry?

我有一個關於永續性的問題。今年上半年的年成長率相當驚人。現在，如果我回顧最近一段時間，例如從 2010 年開始，商業週期性已經下降了。這也意味著，同比數據並沒有那麼理想。所以，你現在成長過快這件事，是否讓你感到擔憂？這是否會再次引發人們對產業週期性的擔憂？

Yes. In my opinion, no. I mean, I might be wrong. But I think that there has been a fundamental transition in the industry as the supply chain has matured and as there has been concentration in the semiconductor industry. The traditional history of the industry was an overinvestment for many players and then a contraction, I think that's kind of long gone by virtue of scale and scope of the economics of the industry and the technical risks and opportunities that kind of go with it. But what is always still true is it's still difficult to predict and maybe increasingly so because there's no one kind of killer app or killer device, there?s a diverse set of demand drivers. It's more difficult to predict for our customers. And therefore for us, there is some variability of spending. And one element of our focus on competitive differentiation is business model flexibility. It's not actually that easy to ramp the capacity of your company by 40% to an average baseline of prior year. I mean, that's a lot of hard work. So variability and flexible business model is a critical part of the success of the company. And hopefully, that will be a long-term statement of value for our shareholders.

是的。我認為不是。我的意思是，我可能錯了。但我認為，隨著供應鏈的成熟和半導體產業的集中化，該產業已經發生了根本性的轉變。該行業的傳統歷史是許多參與者過度投資，然後收縮，我認為由於該行業的規模和經濟範圍，以及隨之而來的技術風險和機遇，這種情況早已不復存在了。但始終不變的是，預測仍然很困難，而且可能越來越難，因為沒有一種殺手級應用或殺手級設備，需求驅動因素多種多樣。對於我們的客戶來說，預測未來更加困難。因此，我們的支出存在一定的波動性。我們關注競爭差異化的一個要素是商業模式的彈性。要將公司產能提升 40% 到去年的平均水平，實際上並不容易。我的意思是，那可是相當辛苦的工作。因此，可變性和靈活的商業模式是公司成功的關鍵因素。希望這能為我們的股東帶來長期的價值。

And then one question on China. There's a lot of expectation around memory investments in China next year. The question I have for you is that from your perspective, has the visibility of memory projects changed for China for next year? And is there a path that you see for China memory investments next year without some foreign IP coming into the picture?

然後還有一個關於中國的問題。明年中國對記憶體領域的投資備受期待。我想問您的是，從您的角度來看，明年中國記憶項目的可見度是否有所改變？那麼，您認為明年中國記憶體投資的發展路徑中，是否存在一些不涉及外國智慧財產權的領域？

Yes. I think I'd probably say the same thing today that I've said for a while now. I mean, there clearly seems to be conviction to a plan that looks rational in terms of its kind of fundamental business objectives. And your ability to execute is a byproduct of 2 things, knowing how to make the devices you want to sell and then having sort of the operational scale to pull it off. And whether that comes from M&A or IP licensing or just the development of organic know-how, I think we will see over time. As best as we can tell, we still believe that the China memory investment conversation is more a calendar '18 story than calendar '17 story. And just to give you a little bit more color on calendar '18, kind of holistically, we're tracking about 10 new fabs next year. And to our understanding of the investment plans in those fabs, more than 80% of the wafer starts additions will be not in China. So that's another data point that hopefully allows you to triangulate a little more.

是的。我想我今天說的話可能跟我之前說的一樣。我的意思是，這項計劃顯然很有說服力，而且從其基本商業目標來看也很合理。你的執行能力是兩件事的副產品，一是知道如何製造你想銷售的設備，二是擁有實現這一目標所需的營運規模。而這究竟是透過併購、智慧財產權許可，還是透過自身技術累積實現的，我認為我們終將見分曉。據我們所知，我們仍然認為中國記憶體投資的話題更多地發生在 2018 年，而不是 2017 年。為了讓大家對 2018 年的行程有更全面的了解，我們預計明年將推出約 10 個新的品牌。根據我們對這些晶圓廠投資計畫的了解，超過 80% 的新增晶圓開工量將不會在中國。所以這是另一個數據點，希望它能幫助你進行更深入的分析。

We'll take our next question from C.J. Muse with Evercore.

接下來，我們將回答來自 Evercore 公司的 C.J. Muse 提出的問題。

I guess first question and the fact you've talked about service running at around 20% of revenues, as you've clearly increased your installed base taking share over the last handful of years, curious, has that increased and/or when could we see an acceleration for that part of your business?

我想問的第一個問題是，您提到服務收入約佔總收入的 20%，而過去幾年您的用戶基數明顯增加，市場份額也隨之擴大，我想知道，這個數字是否有所增長，以及我們何時才能看到您這部分業務加速增長？

Well, I think whether it's accelerating enough, I'll let you decide. But at least for the last couple of years, we've had a pretty intense focus on broadening our work, I would say, to the customers. So advanced services agenda and creative use of software, really employing strategies around machine learning and harnessing the data from the information that's available to us and to our customers in ways that create value. Whether it's productivity oriented or extendability oriented, I mean, there is a number of very meaningful projects. The business has been growing faster than the pace of the installed base, and it continues to do so this year. And I would say we would expect the momentum in calendar '18 to be stronger than '17 on that point. But it takes some time, right. When you develop new products and services, there's no magic pendulum swing. It takes a number of years to really demonstrate and deliver the value and have the customer convicted that, that transition makes sense for them.

至於它是否加速發展到足夠快的程度，我認為這由你來判斷。但至少在過去的兩年裡，我們一直非常注重拓展我們的工作，也就是服務客戶。因此，先進的服務議程和軟體的創造性使用，真正運用機器學習策略，並以創造價值的方式利用我們和客戶可獲得的資訊數據。無論是以提高生產力為導向還是以增強可擴展性為導向，我的意思是，有許多非常有意義的專案。該業務的成長速度一直超過用戶基數的成長速度，今年仍將繼續保持這一成長速度。而且我認為，我們預計 2018 年的勢頭會比 2017 年更強。但這需要一些時間，對吧。在開發新產品和服務時，並沒有什麼神奇的鐘擺效應。真正展現和交付價值，並讓客戶確信這種轉型對他們來說是有意義的，需要數年時間。

Very helpful. And I guess as a follow-up, when you think about the back half, and I'm not asking for a shipment guide. But as you think about mix, and I think the takeaway from some of your comments earlier is that deferred revenues should help revenues exceed shipments in Q4. Curious how we should be thinking about gross margin trajectory in the second half.

很有幫助。我想作為後續，當你考慮後半部分時，我不是要求發貨指南。但當你考慮產品組合時，我認為從你之前的一些評論中可以得出這樣的結論：遞延收入應該有助於第四季度的收入超過出貨量。很好奇我們該如何看待下半年的毛利率走勢。

C.J., the guidance I gave you, as you think through margin percentages, even though we're maybe not exactly on the financial model we provided to you, the margin percentages in the financial model are still good guideposts, if you will, in terms of how to model our business. So I'd encourage you to go back and have a look at what we shared with you in November there.

C.J.，我給你的指導，在你思考利潤率的時候，即使我們可能沒有完全按照我們提供給你的財務模型來做，財務模型中的利潤率仍然是很好的指導方針，可以理解為如何對我們的業務進行建模。所以我建議您回去看看我們在11月和您分享的內容。

Our next question comes from Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的哈蘭‧蘇爾。

On your view on better foundry and logic spend, of that incremental spending improvement, does it include a broadening out of the number of customers relative to your prior view? And is the incremental spend more leading-edge 10 and 7 or more follow-through on legacy 28-nanometer?

關於您在提高晶圓代工和邏輯設計支出方面的看法，以及這種支出上的逐步改善，是否包括相對於您先前的看法而言，客戶數量的擴大？新增支出是更多用於領先的 10 奈米和 7 奈米技術，還是更多地用於對傳統 28 奈米技術的後續跟進？

Most of the increment was 10, at least compared and contrasted with our comments over the last earnings call. And I don't know that our expectations for broadening are any different today than they were then. We expected there to be a number of customers making those investments, and it's kind of playing out that way. Maybe one of the things I could have actually added earlier, and maybe I'll do it now, Harlan, is when I look at our first half, second half, we believe that the first half memory is stronger than the second half memory from a shipments point of view. And logic foundry is stronger second half than first half. So that's our view of kind of wafer fabrication equipment spending balance in the first half, second half by segment.

大部分增幅為 10，至少與我們上次財報電話會議的評論相比是如此。我不認為我們今天對拓展的期望與當時有任何不同。我們預料到會有很多客戶進行這些投資，而實際情況也確實如此。也許我之前應該補充一點，也許我現在就補充一下，哈蘭，那就是，當我們審視上半年和下半年時，我們認為從出貨量的角度來看，上半年的記憶比下半年的記憶更強烈。邏輯鑄造廠的後半部比前半部更強。以上是我們對上半年及下半年各業務板塊晶圓製造設備支出平衡情況的看法。

And then on the strong memory shipment environment, what we're hearing, probably the same thing you guys are, is that DRAM and NAND suppliers are kind of hand to mouth, right? In other words, they're shipping whatever they can build, even what was in a seasonally weaker March quarter. So I guess my question is, are you sensing more urgency to drive accelerated node migrations, whether that's 1x for DRAM or 64 layers for NAND? I'm just wondering if we're starting to see a step up in node migration cadence just given the industry supply constraints.

至於強勁的記憶體出貨環境，我們聽到的（可能跟你聽到的一樣）是，DRAM 和 NAND 供應商的處境比較艱難，對吧？換句話說，他們會盡一切可能生產產品，即使是往年淡季（3 月）生產的那些產品也不例外。所以我想問的是，您是否感覺到推動加速節點遷移的緊迫性增加，無論是 DRAM 的 1 倍速遷移還是 NAND 的 64 層遷移？我只是在想，鑑於產業供應限制，我們是否開始看到節點遷移節奏加快。

Interesting question. I don't know if I would articulate a cadence message. I mean, clearly there's a commitment to technology conversions in memory -- in DRAM this year, and that was a big part of the increment year-over-year from a spending and overall performance of the company. But I still don't think we're modeling any more than 25% of the installed base at the 1x node by the end of this year, so that's a reference there. And maybe it is a statement on cadence, but there's clearly momentum and ambition to 64-layer devices. But if you look at the installed base of 3D NAND capacity at the end of this year, there's still a pretty broad mix of 3D capacity, right. So not only is there the reality that approximately half of the NAND installed base is 3D capable, there's the dynamic that some proportion of that 3D-capable device is 32-layer device capable. Some proportion is 48 and some proportion is 64, so there's a long way to go with the installed base and supply chain independent of the demand story.

有趣的問題。我不知道我是否能清晰地表達出節奏訊息。我的意思是，很明顯，公司致力於記憶體技術轉型——今年是DRAM轉型，這在公司支出和整體業績方面實現了同比大幅增長。但我仍然認為，到今年年底，我們預計 1x 節點的安裝基數不會超過總安裝基數的 25%，所以這是一個參考值。也許這是一種節奏上的表態，但很明顯，64 層裝置的發展勢頭強勁，雄心勃勃。但如果你看一下今年年底 3D NAND 容量的已安裝基數，你會發現 3D 容量的組合仍然相當廣泛，對吧。因此，不僅大約一半的 NAND 安裝基數具備 3D 功能，而且其中一部分具備 3D 功能的設備還具備 32 層設備的功能。一部分比例為 48%，一部分比例為 64%，因此，無論需求情況如何，安裝基礎和供應鏈還有很長的路要走。

Our next question comes from Sidney Ho with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Sidney Ho。

I have 2 questions. First is there are some concerns that the second derivative of the 3D NAND wafer additions has peaked. Clearly, you had opportunity to gain share going from 2D to 3D as you address a bigger portion of the market. But let's say the number of 3D NAND wafers addition next year is exactly the same as this year and in 2018, how should we think about your revenue opportunities in NAND? Is there a particular technology or steps that will help you do better than what you do this year?

我有兩個問題。首先，有人擔心 3D NAND 晶圓添加量的二階導數已經達到峰值。顯然，從 2D 到 3D，你有機會獲得更大的市場份額，因為你觸及了更大的市場。但假設明年新增的 3D NAND 晶圓數量與今年和 2018 年完全相同，我們應該如何看待您在 NAND 領域的收入機會？是否有某種特定的技術或方法可以幫助你做得比今年更好？

I have no idea. I mean, it's such a precise question with due respect. I mean, the complexity of the customers' road map and spending, there are so many moving parts on that. I mean, the best I can give you is that you?ve got to take your own position on how much legitimate demand there is for 3D nonvolatile memory. We're pretty optimistic, but I -- you make your own call on that. Whatever the level of demand that there is, Lam Research is going to perform better than the average equipment company, maybe by a long way, and that's the message we've tried to convey in terms of the criticality of etch and deposition in the device manufacturing process flow, and it's the message that we try to articulate relative to critical applications, market share etch and dep at the 90% level. And it's the message that we've tried to articulate in terms of market share generally, from planar to 3D, which is almost a double-digit gain in market share. So whatever it is, Lam Research is going to be a company in the mix of equipment companies that will be on the kind of upper end of the scale of performance, so long as we keep executing in the way that we have demonstrated in the last several years. I apologize I can't answer directly your question, but hopefully that context is helpful.

我不知道。我的意思是，恕我直言，這是一個非常精準的問題。我的意思是，客戶的消費路線圖和支出情況非常複雜，其中涉及的因素太多了。我的意思是，我能給你的最好建議是，你必須自己判斷市場對 3D 非揮發性記憶體的合理需求有多大。我們相當樂觀，但是──你自己判斷吧。無論市場需求如何，Lam Research 的表現都將優於一般的設備公司，甚至可能遠遠超越後者。這就是我們一直試圖傳達的訊息，即蝕刻和沈積在裝置製造流程中的重要性。這也是我們試圖闡明的訊息，尤其是在關鍵應用領域，蝕刻和沈積的市場份額達到了 90%。而這正是我們試圖從市場佔有率的角度來闡述的訊息，從平面到 3D，市佔率幾乎實現了兩位數的成長。所以無論如何，只要我們繼續保持過去幾年所展現出的執行力，Lam Research 就將成為設備公司中性能領先的公司之一。很抱歉我無法直接回答您的問題，但希望這些背景資訊對您有所幫助。

No, that's super helpful. Maybe switching to foundry and logic. In the past, you talked about yours and maybe in the dep, etch, clean opportunity goes up a lot every node. I think that's -- so just a comment on your -- maybe just comment on your share gains in this segment. But at the same time, TSMC -- again this is probably not new, but they -- last week, they talked about the capital intensity probably stays within a pretty stable range over the next few years. Can you help us square those comments and one is going up a lot and one is kind of flattish?

不，這太有幫助了。或許可以改用 Foundry 和 Logic。過去，你談到了你的，也許在深層、蝕刻、清潔的機會每個節點都會大幅增加。我想就您在這個領域的市場份額增長發表一些評論。但與此同時，台積電——這可能不是什麼新鮮事——上週他們談到，未來幾年資本密集度可能會保持在相當穩定的範圍內。你能幫我們理清一下這些評論嗎？其中一則評論漲幅很大，而另一則評論則比較平穩？

Yes. I mean, obviously, the comments from any one customer are going to be WFE comments, and the comments that come from the company, from us, are segment specific, right. So I mean, our story is generally as you articulated. In the microprocessor space, I think we've conveyed now for a couple of years a very different reality of engagement with the customer than was true 5 years ago. And as I already noted again by repeating the disclosure of the last earnings call, our market share momentum in foundry has also been positive through the 10-nanometer and 7-nanometer transitions. And all of that is supplemented by the fact that through the 10- and 7- and 5-nanometer technology road map, the proportion of SAM in etch and deposition systematically increases with the adoption of EUV that's I would say the consensus adoption assumptions. And that's really a commentary on the progress that's being made and the economics of multi-patterning, and it's a commentary on the insertion of EUV with a multi-patterning process flow. And it's a commentary on probably 70% of multi-patterning integration schemes being spacer based. So there's a lot of kind of moving parts but pretty positive story, I think, independent of the overarching statements that you've made. And maybe one last point, logic and foundry are as invested as ever, if not more so, in utilizing their installed base. And that will continue to be true for all of our customers.

是的。我的意思是，很顯然，任何一個客戶的評論都是WFE的評論，而公司（也就是我們）的評論則是針對特定細分市場的，對吧。所以我的意思是，我們的故事大致上就像你描述的那樣。在微處理器領域，我認為在過去的幾年裡，我們已經展現出與 5 年前截然不同的客戶互動現實。正如我在上次財報電話會議上再次披露的那樣，我們在晶圓代工領域的市場份額勢頭在 10 奈米和 7 奈米過渡期間也保持積極態勢。此外，隨著 10 奈米、7 奈米和 5 奈米技術路線圖的推進，蝕刻和沈積中 SAM 的比例隨著 EUV 技術的採用而係統性地增加，這可以說是普遍接受的採用假設。這實際上是對多重圖案化技術所取得的進展和經濟效益的評論，也是對將 EUV 技術融入多重圖案化製程的評論。這反映了大約 70% 的多重圖案整合方案都是基於間隔層的。所以這裡面有很多變數，但總的來說，我認為，拋開你之前發表的整體看法，這仍然是一個相當積極的故事。最後一點，邏輯和鑄造廠仍然像以往一樣，甚至更加重視利用其已安裝的用戶群。這一點對我們所有的客戶來說都將繼續適用。

Our next question comes from Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

Martin, I had a question on 2018. I realize we're early here but...

馬丁，我有一個關於2018年的問題。我知道我們來得還早，但…

We lost you.

我們失去你了。

Toshi, are you there?

Toshi，你在嗎？

Our next question comes from Atif Malik with Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的阿提夫‧馬利克。

Martin, you were a keynote speaker at SEMICON China in March. I just want to know if you're confidence in domestic Chinese spending based on your discussions in China is higher or about the same than versus 3 months ago?

Martin，你曾是三月中國國際半導體展（SEMICON China）的主題演講嘉賓。我想知道，根據您在中國的討論，您對中國國內消費的信心與三個月前相比是更高還是基本持平？

It's about the same. And I would say as context, I'm a keynote speaker in SEMICON conferences all around the world, so don't read too much into I happen to show up in China. So we continue to believe there is substance to their ambition. We continue to believe they're working really hard. And as is true for our customers globally, our job is to support as best we can. And that's true for every customer wherever they are.

差不多。需要說明的是，我是世界各地 SEMICON 會議的主題演講嘉賓，所以不要過度解讀我剛好出現在中國這件事。因此，我們仍然相信他們的雄心壯志並非空穴來風。我們仍然相信他們非常努力。對於我們全球的客戶來說，我們的職責就是盡我們所能提供支援。無論顧客身在何處，情況都是如此。

Great. And then as a follow-up, can you talk about the image sensor market? In your $37 billion plus WFE outlook, how big is the image sensor opportunity? And what are the trends you're seeing in that market this year?

偉大的。那麼，作為後續問題，您能談談影像感測器市場嗎？在您超過 370 億美元的 WFE 市場展望中，影像感測器市場規模有多大？今年您觀察到的市場趨勢是什麼？

Yes. I don't know, Atif, that we've quantified it specifically, and I don't think we're going to today. What I would tell you directionally relative to last year is it's stronger this year than it was last year. Probably not as strong as it was the year before, but we're seeing nice momentum in image sensor, and it's a very etch- and deposition-intensive process flow.

是的。阿提夫，我不知道我們是否已經具體量化過它，而且我認為我們今天也不會進行量化。從趨勢上看，與去年相比，今年的情況比去年更糟。雖然可能不如前一年那麼強勁，但影像感測器領域發展勢頭良好，而且這是一個需要大量蝕刻和沈積過程的流程。

And our position is strong.

我們的立場很堅定。

And our position is strong. Our share position is very strong.

我們的立場很堅定。我們的股份地位非常穩固。

Our next question comes from Weston Twigg with Pacific Crest Securities.

我們的下一個問題來自太平洋山脊證券公司的韋斯頓·特威格。

First, just wanted to ask about DRAM. You said your outlook hasn't changed much for this year yet. But I'm just wondering as you look out into 2018, bit growth is pretty hard to come by. Are you expecting some of that positive view on 2018 to come from DRAM capacity expansion, new fabs?

首先，我想問一下關於DRAM的問題。你說你對今年的看法還沒有太大改變。但我只是在想，展望 2018 年，比特成長似乎很難實現。您是否預期 2018 年的正面前景部分來自於 DRAM 產能擴充和新晶圓廠的建設？

We're not assuming much of anything in terms of increased wafers starts, I would say, in DRAM just as a general modeling statement, and I'd say that for '18 as much as I would '17 and maybe even '20. I mean, I think our long-term model is basically kind of flat lines wafer starts in DRAM. The spending is all about technology conversion. Generally speaking, the demand statement is all about content more than units of any one device, and there are some really interesting kind of demand opportunities for our customers. And clearly, there are some rumors, I would say, at various points in time around the speculating of increased investments. If and when our customers start articulating that, then obviously we're well positioned and we would participate naturally in that strongly as we have in the past.

就 DRAM 而言，我們並沒有對晶圓開工量增加做出太多假設，這只是一個總體的建模聲明，而且我認為 2018 年的情況與 2017 年甚至 2020 年的情況一樣。我的意思是，我認為我們的長期模式基本上是DRAM晶圓開工量保持穩定。所有支出都與技術轉型有關。總的來說，需求聲明更專注於內容，而不是任何單一設備的數量，而我們的客戶也面臨一些非常有趣的需求機會。顯然，在不同時期都曾出現過一些關於投資增加的傳言。如果我們的客戶開始明確表達這種需求，那麼顯然我們就處於有利地位，我們自然會像過去一樣積極參與其中。

Okay, that's helpful. And then secondarily, just looking ahead on 3D NAND scaling, you've talked about having good positions through 64 layer and trying to get good positioning for the 96-layer process. But just wondering if you're seeing a continued push for increase of layer height from customers. Or if they're finding the scaling challenges are limiting, then you'll see them sort of double up on string stacking, doubling some layers of 64 or 48, for example?

好的，這很有幫助。其次，展望 3D NAND 擴展，您談到了在 64 層工藝中取得良好地位，並努力在 96 層工藝中取得良好地位。我只是想知道您是否持續感受到客戶對增加圖層高度的需求。或者，如果他們發現擴展性方面的挑戰是限制因素，那麼你會看到他們採用某種方式來增加字串堆疊的數量，例如，將某些 64 層或 48 層的數量翻倍？

Yes. I mean, I think the industry is still -- and customers specifically are still kind of working through the answers to those questions. From a traditional scaling point of view, vertical scaling point of view, we have customer engagements that extend beyond the 96 layer. So we're actively working with customers above that layer count in a development environment. And as is true, if a customer can continue the same integration scheme and the same equipment selection and the same materials, they'll work really hard to do that. So I think if the solutions that exist technically work for people from a productivity point of view, then it's much more likely to be a continuation of the same trend. But the industry is just beginning its transition to 64-layer device architecture, and there's a lot of learning ahead of the industry. So I see both scenarios potentially playing out but an overwhelming bias to stay with vertical scaling as an architectural choice just because it's the lowest risk path normally.

是的。我的意思是，我認為這個行業——尤其是客戶——仍然在努力尋找這些問題的答案。從傳統的擴展角度來看，從垂直擴展角度來看，我們的客戶互動已經擴展到了第 96 層之外。因此，我們正在積極與開發環境中層數高於該值的客戶合作。事實的確如此，如果客戶能夠繼續採用相同的整合方案、相同的設備選擇和相同的材料，他們一定會非常努力地去做。所以我認為，如果現有的解決方案在技術上能夠從生產力角度提高人們的工作效率，那麼這種趨勢很可能會持續下去。但業界才剛開始向 64 層裝置架構過渡，還有許多東西要學習。所以我認為這兩種情況都有可能發生，但絕大多數人還是會傾向於選擇垂直擴展作為架構選擇，因為這通常是風險最低的路徑。

And we have another question from Toshi Hari with Goldman Sachs.

我們還有來自高盛的 Toshi Hari 提出的問題。

Hopefully, I don't get cut off this time. Martin, I had a question on 2018. I realize we're early here, but when you think about the multiple growth opportunities you're exposed to, what are you most excited about into 2018? And on the flip side, what are you worried about the most?

希望這次不會被切斷聯繫。馬丁，我有一個關於2018年的問題。我知道現在還為時過早，但當你考慮到你所面臨的眾多發展機會時，你對 2018 年最興奮的是什麼？另一方面，你最擔心的是什麼？

I'm really excited about where the electronics industry is generally. I mean, from my perspective, I don't know that in my 16 years of this industry and this company, I'd be more excited by the diversity of kind of innovation and opportunity for the silicon road map. I think it's just tremendous time. And if you're investing consistent with that opportunity, you got a nice future ahead if you can kind of keep executing and solving very complex technical problems. So I'm really excited, and that's a very holistic statement on some pretty compelling diverse -- device-diverse application technology drivers that are relevant to cloud and enterprise and mass storage agendas as well as the advanced computation agenda that is necessary to really harness the value out of a connected world. So I mean, that's the excitement for me, and none of that can happen without a silicon road map. So that's pretty cool. What am I most worried about? I'm not worried about that much if I'm honest with you in a long term. I mean, you got to keep executing. It's -- this is a hard industry. We have to work really hard to do what we do, so our focus and our intensity around operational execution is something that takes a lot of hard work. The macro is an unknown and uncontrollable, and hence, the focus on flexibility and variability in our business model. And the technical challenges don't get easier, but I feel like the technical depth of our company is one of our strengths. So...

我對電子產業的整體發展前景感到非常興奮。我的意思是，就我個人而言，在我從事這個行業和這家公司 16 年的時間裡，我從未對矽谷發展路線圖的創新和機會的多樣性感到如此興奮。我認為這是一個絕佳的時機。如果你能抓住這個機會並持續投資，並且能夠不斷執行和解決非常複雜的技術問題，那麼你的未來將會非常美好。所以我非常興奮，這番話全面闡述了一些非常引人注目的、多樣化的設備應用技術驅動因素，這些因素與雲端運算、企業和海量儲存議程以及先進運算議程相關，而先進運算議程對於真正利用互聯世界的價值是必要的。所以，這就是讓我興奮的地方，而這一切都離不開矽晶片路線圖。那真是太酷了。我最擔心的是什麼？坦白說，從長遠來看，我並不太擔心這個問題。我的意思是，你必須堅持執行。這是一個競爭非常激烈的行業。我們必須非常努力才能做好我們所做的事情，因此我們在營運執行方面的專注和投入需要付出大量的努力。宏觀經濟情勢未知且不可控，因此，我們的商業模式註重靈活性和可變性。技術挑戰並沒有變得更容易，但我感覺我們公司的技術實力是我們的優勢之一。所以...

Okay, great. Then I had a follow-up on the Logic business. I was a little bit surprised how low system shipments were in Q1 or the March quarter. In the past, you've talked about the CMOS image sensor business potentially picking up off of a low base in 2016. And you've also talked about some market share or potential market share gains in the microprocessor space going forward. So when should we expect the Logic segment of your business to pick up meaningfully from a shipment and revenue perspective?

好的，太好了。然後我跟進了 Logic 業務的情況。我有點驚訝於第一季（或三月季度）的系統出貨量如此之低。過去，您曾談到 CMOS 影像感測器業務可能會在 2016 年從較低的基數開始回升。您也談到了未來在微處理器領域可能獲得的市場份額或潛在市場份額成長。那麼，從出貨量和收入的角度來看，我們應該何時才能看到貴公司邏輯業務板塊出現顯著成長呢？

I'll give you a comment, Toshi. I think March is probably the low point in terms of what the calendar year looks like from a system shipments standpoint. In the Logic and Other, it's going to strengthen through the back half of the year.

我會給你一些建議，Toshi。我認為從系統出貨量的角度來看，3 月可能是全年的最低點。在邏輯及其他板塊，這種趨勢將在下半年持續增強。

Our next question comes from Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的喬·摩爾。

Great. In terms of NAND, I think you're talking about now a little bit of a higher percentage of wafers on 3D at your end. I think you had said 700,000 before. Now you're saying a little over half, which I think is north of 750,000. Is that incremental supply, do you think? Or am I being too literal about that? Or is that sort of more conversion from planar to 3D?

偉大的。就 NAND 而言，我認為您現在指的是您那邊 3D 晶圓的比例略高一些。我想你之前說過是70萬。現在你說的是略超過一半，我認為這超過了 75 萬。你認為這是增量供應嗎？或者我理解得太字面意思了？或者說，這更多的是從平面到三維的轉換？

Actually, I don't -- on the fly, I don't know that I know that there's a particular bias one way or the other. It was and continues to be, at least in terms of wafer starts, a pretty balanced year between kind of new greenfield and conversion. Maybe slightly more conversion, but it's pretty balanced.

實際上，我並不知道——我一時之間並不知道是否存在某種特定的偏見。至少就晶圓開工量而言，今年是新開工和改造項目之間相當平衡的一年，而且這種情況至今仍在持續。轉化率可能略高一些，但整體來說比較平衡。

It's pretty balanced, Joe.

相當平衡，喬。

And certainly, our expectations at the end of calendar '17 for shipped capacity in active qualification mode kind of similar to the level that's going into the year. So no real story in terms of supply and demand imbalance.

當然，我們對 2017 年底處於積極認證模式的出貨產能的預期與年初的水平大致相同。所以從供需失衡的角度來看，並沒有什麼真正的問題。

Okay. And then where do you see the endpoint on that mix? If you have the sort of fully depreciated planar fabs, do you think there's a long tail on that capacity? Or will you see conversion to either 3D or to DRAM over time?

好的。那麼，你認為這種融合的最終目標是什麼？如果你擁有那種完全折舊的平面晶圓廠，你認為這種產能會有很長的使用壽命嗎？或者隨著時間的推移，你會看到向 3D 或 DRAM 的轉換嗎？

Yes. I mean, the customers obviously are most qualified to answer that question. As best as I can tell, there was an intended conversion of the majority of the installed base over a period that runs probably 4 years from now. And that's without the kind of the conversation around the secular demand trends and what that means for kind of bit growth and so on and so forth. So I believe if we're sitting here in 4 years' time, there will still be some planar installed base, but it will be the minority.

是的。我的意思是，顯然顧客最有資格回答這個問題。據我所知，大部分已安裝的設備計劃在未來 4 年內完成轉換。而且這還沒涉及長期需求趨勢以及這對經濟成長等意味著什麼等等的討論。所以我相信，如果4年後我們再坐在這裡，平面電視仍然會有一些用戶，但它將是少數。

It will be very small, Joe.

喬，它會很小。

Our next question comes from Romit Shah with Nomura Instinet.

下一個問題來自野村證券的 Romit Shah。

Doug, I heard you just refer others back to the financial model from November. But back then, you had a -- basically a 2019, 2020 target of 26% operating margin on like $8.5 billion to $9.3 billion in revenue. And this quarter, it looks like you're going to be run rating at the high end of that range, and operating margin is going to come in per guidance at about 27%. So with all due respect, the model does feel a little bit stale. And I guess my question is if we were to assume that Lam can get to $10 billion annualized at some point in the future, how do we think about operating margin?

道格，我聽說你只是讓其他人回顧11月份的財務模型。但當時，你們的目標是——基本上是 2019 年、2020 年實現 26% 的營業利潤率，收入約為 85 億至 93 億美元。本季度，你們的營運評級似乎將達到該範圍的高端，營業利潤率也將如預期般達到 27% 左右。恕我直言，這種模式確實感覺有點過時了。我想問的是，如果我們假設林氏未來某個時候的年營業額能達到 100 億美元，我們該如何看待其營業利潤率？

Yes, Romit. All due respect, 27% and 26% isn?t wildly different. So me guiding you back to the model is a place that you ought to gravitate towards. I don't have a model out there that's a $10 billion model, Romit. But if there was one, it probably would be better profitability than the $9 billion model. There is leverage in the model. You've seen it from us as we've grown, and I would expect that you'd continue to see it if we were to grow beyond the high end of what I have out there right now.

是的，羅米特。恕我直言，27% 和 26% 的差異並不算太大。因此，我引導你回歸到這個模式，這正是你應該努力的方向。羅米特，我目前還沒有市值 100 億美元的商業模式。但如果真有這樣的模式，它的獲利能力可能會比90億美元的模式更好。該模型具有槓桿效應。你們已經見證了我們的成長，我相信如果我們能夠超越目前我們所擁有的高端水平，你們也會繼續看到這一點。

Okay. The other question I had was just on the decision to do an accelerated buyback. Just given the strong share performance and the potential for repatriation, can you guys just talk a little bit about timing here?

好的。我還有另一個問題，是關於加速股票回購的決定。鑑於股票表現強勁以及資金可能回流，你們能否談談目前的時機選擇？

Yes. We're -- when we announced the buyback, it was a $1 billion program, $1 billion buyback over a 12- to 18-month time frame. As we executed through it, it felt like getting into the June quarter we need to step up the pace a little bit to execute to what we said we were going to do, and that's what we're doing and why we're doing a little bit more in June. And yes, Romit, I wish I had done it a quarter ago when the share price was lower. But hindsight's always 20-20 with stuff like this.

是的。我們—當我們宣布回購計劃時，這是一個10億美元的計劃，在12到18個月的時間範圍內回購10億美元。隨著工作的推進，我們感覺進入六月的季度後，我們需要加快步伐，才能實現我們先前承諾的目標。這就是我們正在做的，也是為什麼我們在六月要加大工作力度的原因。是的，羅米特，我真希望我三個月前股價更低的時候就這麼做了。但事後看來，這類事情總是比較容易看清真相。

We'll take our next question from Mehdi Hosseini with SIG.

接下來，我們將回答來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini 提出的問題。

Most of the good questions have been asked. I have 2 follow-ups. Going back to your Analyst Day presentation, specifically on 3D NAND, you were saying that the 96-layer 3D NAND should start being -- investment for 96-layer 3D NAND should start sometime in late 2018, early 2019. Should we expect another round of bake-off for that particular node? And if that's the case, is that going to happen in early '18? And I have a follow-up.

大多數好問題都已經被問過了。我還有 2 個後續問題。回到您在分析師日的演講，特別是關於 3D NAND 的演講，您當時說 96 層 3D NAND 的投資應該在 2018 年底或 2019 年初開始。我們是否應該預期該節點會進行另一輪測試？如果真是那樣的話，那會在 2018 年初發生嗎？我還有一個後續問題。

Well, I think the reality of frankly the entire industry, not just NAND, is if a customer can keep doing what they're doing, which is a commentary on materials and device architecture and process flow and equipment selection, they have every interest to do that because that's where their learning is, so these are hard problems and challenges. So that tends to -- not that any one of us are isolated from the competitive realities of life. But once you have high-volume manufacturing positions and you have a learning that other people do not your positions are generally very strong, so there is nothing extraordinary about the 96-layer structure in terms of how the customer will think through and select equipment, and we have the strongest high-volume manufacturing position in the segments of our industry. So that doesn't mean we don't have to work hard because we do, but we feel confident about the future of the company and the trajectory of our performance we've described to you.

坦白說，我認為整個行業（不僅僅是 NAND）的現實是，如果客戶能夠繼續做他們正在做的事情，即對材料、裝置架構、工藝流程和設備選擇進行評論，他們當然樂意這樣做，因為那是他們學習的地方，所以這些都是難題和挑戰。所以這種情況往往會發生——但這並不意味著我們每個人都能脫離生活中充滿競爭的現實。但是，一旦你擁有了大批量生產的地位，並且掌握了其他人沒有的知識，你的地位通常就非常穩固，因此，就客戶如何思考和選擇設備而言，96 層結構並沒有什麼特別之處，而且我們在行業細分市場中擁有最強大的大批量生產地位。所以這並不意味著我們不需要努力工作，因為我們確實需要努力工作，但我們對公司的未來以及我們向您描述的業績發展軌跡充滿信心。

And a quick follow-up for Doug. You have about $18 net cash per share. How much of that is onshore versus offshore? And what are your plans for the cash that is offshore in case there's no change to taxation?

還有一個問題要問格。您每股淨現金約為 18 美元。其中陸上項目佔比多少，海上項目佔多少？如果稅收政策沒有變化，你們打算如何處理海外資金？

Mehdi, we finished last quarter, I think it was probably about -- maybe a little bit above 30% onshore, so about 70% offshore. The whole question around tax reform and when or if or what have you obviously is very topical and feels like every day it's a little bit different. We're very much taking a wait-and-see approach. Now were there not to be any tax reform, there's a variety of different ways you'd navigate through that. But I'm more encouraged today than ever that we're actually going to get something done.

Mehdi，我們上個季度結束時，我認為陸上業務佔比可能略高於 30%，海上業務佔比約為 70%。關於稅制改革的種種問題，比如何時改革、是否改革等等，顯然都是非常熱門的話題，而且感覺每天都在變化。我們目前採取的是觀望態度。如果沒有稅制改革，那麼有很多不同的方法可以應付這種情況。但我今天比以往任何時候都更加受到鼓舞，相信我們真的會取得一些成果。

That concludes our question-and-answer session for today. Mr. Kumar, I turn the conference back over to you for any additional or closing remarks.

今天的問答環節到此結束。庫馬爾先生，我把會議交還給您，請您作補充或總結發言。

Yes. Thank you all for joining us, and that concludes our conference call.

是的。感謝各位參加，我們的電話會議到此結束。

That does conclude today's presentation. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的演講到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。