科林研發 (LRCX) 2017 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Lam Research Corporation December 2016 conference call. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Satya Kumar, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.

大家好，歡迎參加 Lam Research Corporation 2016 年 12 月的電話會議。此時，我謹將會議交給投資人關係副總裁薩蒂亞‧庫馬爾先生。請繼續，先生。

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to the Lam Research quarterly earnings conference call. With me today are Martin Anstice, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Doug Bettinger, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. During today's call, we will share our outlook on the business environment, review our financial results for the December 2016 quarter, our outlook for the March 2017 quarter. The press release detailing our financial results was distributed a little after 1 PM Pacific time this afternoon. It can also be found on the Investor Relations section of the Company's website, along with the presentation slides that accompany today's call.

謝謝大家，大家下午好。歡迎參加Lam Research季度財報電話會議。今天陪同我的是總裁兼執行長馬丁·安斯蒂斯，以及執行副總裁兼財務長道格·貝廷格。在今天的電話會議上，我們將分享我們對商業環境的展望，回顧我們 2016 年 12 月季度的財務業績，以及我們對 2017 年 3 月季度的展望。詳細介紹我們財務表現的新聞稿已於今天下午太平洋時間下午 1 點剛過發布。也可以在公司網站的投資者關係部分找到，以及今天電話會議的簡報。

Today's presentation and Q&A includes forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties, reflected in the risk factor disclosures of our SEC public filings. Please see accompanying slide in the presentation for additional information. During discussion of our financial results will be presented on a non-GAAP financial basis unless otherwise specified. A detailed reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP results can be found today in today's earnings press release. This call is scheduled to last until 3 PM Pacific time, and as always, we ask that you limit your questions to one per firm with a brief follow-up, so we can accommodate as many questions as possible. As a reminder, the replay of this call will be available later this afternoon on our website. With that, let me hand the call over to Martin.

今天的演示和問答環節包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述存在風險和不確定性，這些風險和不確定性已反映在我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的公開文件中披露的風險因素中。更多資訊請參閱簡報中的配套幻燈片。除非另有說明，否則在討論財務績效時，我們將以非公認會計準則（non-GAAP）財務報表的形式呈現。今天發布的盈利新聞稿中提供了 GAAP 和非 GAAP 結果的詳細調整表。本次電話會議預計將持續到太平洋時間下午 3 點。像往常一樣，我們要求您每家公司只提出一個問題，並可進行簡短的後續提問，以便我們可以盡可能地回答您的問題。再次提醒大家，本次電話會議的錄音將於今天下午稍晚在我們的網站上提供。那麼，我把電話交給馬丁吧。

Thank you, Satya. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. We will first start with an overview of our December quarter results, followed by comments on our 2016 performance milestones, and their relevance to sustainable growth opportunities for the Company. Lastly, we will speak to the industry update, and our assumptions relative to wafer fab equipment spending in 2017.

謝謝你，薩蒂亞。各位下午好，感謝各位今天參加我們的節目。我們將首先概述我們 12 月季度的業績，然後評論我們 2016 年的業績里程碑，以及它們與公司可持續成長機會的相關性。最後，我們將談談產業最新動態，以及我們對 2017 年晶圓製造設備支出的假設。

In December 2016, Lam delivered another record quarter, reporting all-time high shipments, revenues, profit dollars and EPS, all of which also exceeded the midpoint of our guidance range. That foundation and momentum reflects itself in our March quarter guidance, where shipments and revenue both exceed $2 billion for the first time in our history. We are inspired by the opportunity to support the success of our customers, and for Lam to continue its trajectory of multi-year out-performance again in 2017.

2016 年 12 月，Lam 又創下了一個創紀錄的季度業績，出貨量、收入、利潤和每股收益均創歷史新高，所有這些指標也都超過了我們預期範圍的中點。這項基礎和動能體現在我們3月份的季度業績預期中，出貨量和收入均首次超過20億美元，創歷史新高。我們很高興有機會支持客戶取得成功，並希望 Lam 在 2017 年繼續保持多年來的優異業績。

But first, let me take a moment to reflect on 2016. The fifth consecutive year of growth and outperformance for Lam with a shipments CAGR of almost 20% over that period. In the year, we grew our shipments to a record $6.7 billion, two times faster than the 5% increase in WFE that we estimate occurred. We consider this relative outperformance, as well as a further solidifying of our share of WFE, as noteworthy, especially in the context of a meaningful decline in DRAM investments last year. Customer segment mix will be better for us in 2017, than was true in 2016, we believe.

但首先，請容許我花點時間回顧2016年。Lam連續第五年達到成長和優異表現，在此期間出貨量複合年增長率接近20%。這一年，我們的出貨量成長至創紀錄的 67 億美元，是 WFE 預計將成長 5% 的兩倍。我們認為這種相對優異的表現，以及我們在 WFE 領域份額的進一步鞏固，都值得關注，尤其是在去年 DRAM 投資大幅下降的背景下。我們相信，2017 年的客戶群組成將比 2016 年更有利於我們。

As we establish new record results, it is important to recognize the demonstrated quality of our earnings because our focus remains on delivering sustainable, profitable growth. This is particularly true in the context of the balance we described at our Analyst Day between the various business segments of multi-patterning, 3D non-volatile memory, packaging and installed base service. Lam has strengthened its momentum in foundry and logic with significant application share gains from the 2016 nodes to the 10nm and 7nm nodes. As an example, during the quarter, we more than doubled our installed base for our production proven atomic layer etch system for logic self-aligned contact application with our Dielectric Etch product and Mixed Mode Pulsing technology. Application share wins such as this helped us grow our foundry shipments 15 percentage points faster than foundry WFE growth of 25% last year. Said differently, the foundry business segment for Lam Research grew 40% in 2016, year-over-year.

在我們不斷創造新的業績紀錄之際，重要的是要認識到我們盈利能力的顯著提升，因為我們的重點仍然是實現可持續的盈利增長。這一點在我們分析師日上所描述的多圖案化、3D 非揮發性記憶體、封裝和已安裝基礎服務等各個業務部門之間的平衡中尤為明顯。從 2016 年的製程節點到 10 奈米和 7 奈米製程節點，Lam 在晶圓代工和邏輯電路領域的應用份額顯著增長，鞏固了其發展勢頭。例如，在本季度，我們採用介電蝕刻產品和混合模式脈衝技術，使我們用於邏輯自對準接觸應用的、經過生產驗證的原子層蝕刻系統的安裝基礎增加了一倍以上。像這樣的應用市場份額的勝利幫助我們的晶圓代工出貨量比去年晶圓代工WFE 25%的成長率快了15個百分點。換句話說，Lam Research 的代工業務部門在 2016 年年增了 40%。

Turning to 3D NAND, which has emerged as one of the strongest growth opportunities for the semiconductor industry. We grew our NAND shipments by over 80% in 2016, almost twice the rate of growth in the NAND WFE. This record growth was made possible because Lam's product portfolio addresses a variety of critical applications in the manufacture of this device architecture. We shared with you previously that our revenue opportunity increases by approximately 50% per incremental bit of capacity added for 3D NAND compared to planar technology. Perhaps unique to Lam, our opportunity is relatively agnostic to whether the incremental bit capacity is added by new greenfield wafer capacity, or through conversions and upgrades. Which means that in a conversion driven world, our opportunity to outperform remains significant.

轉向 3D NAND，它已成為半導體行業最強勁的成長機會之一。2016 年，我們的 NAND 出貨量成長了 80% 以上，幾乎是 NAND WFE 成長率的兩倍。Lam 的產品組合能夠滿足該裝置架構製造中的各種關鍵應用需求，因此實現了創紀錄的成長。我們之前已經和大家分享過，與平面技術相比，3D NAND 每增加一位容量，我們的收入機會就會增加約 50%。或許只有 Lam 公司才能做到，我們的機會相對來說並不取決於新增的比特容量是透過新建晶圓產能，還是透過改造和升級來實現的。這意味著在以轉換率為導向的世界裡，我們超越競爭對手的機會仍然很大。

Most importantly, we continued our market share momentum in 3D NAND and other nonvolatile memory derivatives by defending 100% of critical applications, and by adding additional applications for staircase etch and atomic layer deposition for advanced memory and 64 layer selections, which will ramp in 2017. Specifically, in atomic layer deposition, we continued to expand the number of applications with several key penetrations at multiple memory and logic customers. While we are very happy with what we accomplished and delivered in 2016, we are committed to the success of our customers long-term and are enthusiastic about the multi-year growth opportunity ahead.

最重要的是，我們透過捍衛 100% 的關鍵應用，以及為先進記憶體和 64 層選擇增加階梯蝕刻和原子層沉積等應用，繼續保持我們在 3D NAND 和其他非揮發性記憶體衍生品的市場份額勢頭，這些應用將在 2017 年實現產量。具體來說，在原子層沉積領域，我們不斷擴大應用範圍，並在多個記憶體和邏輯客戶中取得了一些關鍵突破。雖然我們對 2016 年的成就和成果感到非常滿意，但我們致力於客戶的長期成功，並對未來多年的成長機會充滿熱情。

As we said at our Analyst Day, the industry is clearly now "more than Moore", as powerful demand drivers in the form of cloud, mobility and connected devices create new challenges that we are well-positioned to help our customers address. Important to capitalizing on the opportunities ahead, is the fact that we have the right products at the right time to help our customers enable this industry transformation. This multi-year product positioning by Lam creates sustained outperformance opportunity, central to which is our technical competency and capability, and the trust our customers place in delivery of technology in a form that contributes to their success. Complementing the customer engagement momentum achieved through technology innovation is the capability of Lam manufacturing, supply chain and customer support organizations. Our largely US-based manufacturing organization, once again, delivered record factory output for the December quarter, managing and ramping a complex global supply chain and our own manufacturing capacity, both.

正如我們在分析師日上所說，如今的行業顯然“超越了摩爾定律”，因為雲端運算、行動技術和互聯設備等強大的需求驅動因素帶來了新的挑戰，而我們完全有能力幫助客戶應對這些挑戰。要抓住未來的機遇，關鍵在於我們要在適當​​的時間提供合適的產品，幫助我們的客戶實現這項產業轉型。Lam 的這項多年產品定位策略創造了持續超越市場的機會，其核心在於我們的技術能力和實力，以及客戶對我們以有助於其成功的方式交付技術的信任。為了配合技術創新所取得的客戶參與度提升勢頭，Lam 的製造、供應鏈和客戶支援組織也具備相應的能力。我們主要位於美國的製造組織再次在 12 月季度實現了創紀錄的工廠產量，成功管理並提升了複雜的全球供應鏈以及我們自身的製造能力。

The flexible business model of Lam and the commitment to invest in our future has enabled, consistent with our guidance today, scaling of the Company by more than 40% in the March 2017 quarter from the average shipment level in calendar 2016 at slightly less than $1.7 billion. Record systems shipped means record systems installed and supported; and here, once again, our global customer organization effected accelerated production ramps across multiple sites throughout the world. Our focus is on supporting the time-to-market needs of our customers.

Lam 靈活的商業模式以及對未來的投資承諾，使得公司在 2017 年 3 月季度實現了比 2016 年日曆年平均出貨量水準（略低於 17 億美元）增長 40% 以上，這與我們今天的指導方針相符。已交付的記錄系統意味著已安裝和支援的記錄系統；而在這方面，我們的全球客戶組織再次在世界各地的多個地點實現了加速生產爬坡。我們專注於滿足客戶的產品上市時間需求。

Rounding out the overall value proposition to our customers is the service capability provided by our customer support business group. A value proposition that has increasing emphasis, particularly in the context of IOT. This component of our business reported the fifth consecutive year of growth and has more than doubled in revenues over the last five years. Simply stated, our focus is on improving the technology and productivity of our 40,000-plus process modules in the installed base through innovative product, upgrade and service offerings. In turn, increasing the competitiveness of our underlying etch, deposition and clean systems capabilities.

我們的客戶支援業務團隊提供的服務能力，進一步完善了我們為客戶提供的整體價值主張。價值主張越來越受到重視，尤其是在物聯網的背景下。我們業務的這一部分連續第五年實現成長，過去五年收入翻了一番還多。簡而言之，我們的重點是透過創新產品、升級和服務，提高我們已安裝的 40,000 多個製程模組的技術和生產力。進而提高我們底層蝕刻、沉積和清洗系統能力的競爭力。

Now turning to the overall equipment spending trends of 2016 and our expectations for 2017. WFE investments in 2016 ended a little over $34 billion, essentially unchanged from our prior views. We are in a data-centric world characterized by the cloud and connected devices, which we believe is driving a multi-year growth trajectory for semiconductor content across a number of electronic devices. As a result, we are seeing our customers increase their WFE investments to capture these opportunities. We remain optimistic on the potential for global economic stability and growth, without exception, our key indicators are modelled more positive in calendar 2017 than for calendar 2016.

現在讓我們來看看 2016 年的整體設備支出趨勢以及我們對 2017 年的預期。2016 年 WFE 的投資額略高於 340 億美元，與我們先前的預期基本一致。我們身處一個以資料為中心的世界，其特點是雲端運算和互聯設備，我們相信這將推動半導體含量在眾多電子設備中實現多年的成長。因此，我們看到客戶正在增加對 WFE 的投資，以抓住這些機會。我們對全球經濟穩定和成長的潛力依然保持樂觀，毫無例外，我們的關鍵指標模型預測2017年比2016年更樂觀。

In 2017, we expect the following trends. DRAM supply and demand balance has tightened significantly in the second half of 2016, due to strong end demand and a depletion of inventories, generally. We expect continued tight supply and demand in 2017, as investment recovers from the extremely low levels of 2016. We continue to see multiple demand drivers for DRAM. On the consumer side, the migration to take 8GB die densities enabled by the transition to 20nm and 1Xnm DRAM, combined with increasing use of advanced processes, is enabling exciting new applications such as VR and 4K gaming. Also sustaining healthy DRAM content growth in mobile and the PC.

2017年，我們預計會出現以下趨勢。2016 年下半年，由於終端需求強勁和庫存普遍減少，DRAM 的供需平衡明顯收緊。我們預計 2017 年供需將繼續緊張，因為投資將從 2016 年的極低水準中恢復過來。我們持續看到DRAM需求受到多種因素驅動。在消費領域，隨著 20nm 和 1Xnm DRAM 製程的進步，8GB 晶片密度得以實現，再加上先進製程的日益普及，正在催生令人興奮的新應用，例如 VR 和 4K 遊戲。同時，行動裝置和個人電腦的DRAM含量也保持健康成長。

On the enterprise side, the migration to 14nm server processes with new architectures including increasing attach rate of hardware accelerators and new high bandwidth memory interfaces are driving significant DRAM content. As a result of these favorable supply and demand dynamics, we expect to see a double-digit recovery in DRAM spending in 2017. Still largely focused on conversions, with approximately a quarter of the industry capacity converted to 1X node by the end of calendar 2017. This is a commentary on increased investment with continued discipline, relative to our expectations for supply and demand balance. We expect NAND CapEx to once again grow double digits in 2017, with more than 700,000 wafer starts per month of 3D NAND shipped capacity expected by the end of 2017. Representing less than half of the total NAND wafer capacity for the industry we expect at that time.

在企業方面，向 14nm 伺服器製程的遷移，以及硬體加速器附加率的提高和新的高頻寬記憶體介面等新架構的出現，正在推動 DRAM 含量的大幅成長。由於這些有利的供需動態，我們預計 2017 年 DRAM 支出將出現兩位數的成長。仍主要專注於轉換，到 2017 年底，大約四分之一的產業產能已轉換為 1X 節點。這是對在保持紀律的前提下增加投資的評論，相對於我們對供需平衡的預期。我們預計 2017 年 NAND 資本支出將再次達到兩位數成長，到 2017 年底，3D NAND 出貨產能預計每月晶圓開工量將超過 70 萬片。這僅占我們預計屆時產業 NAND 晶圓總產能的一半不到。

While there is continued focus on where we are in the conversion from 2D to 3D, we believe the industry is in a much earlier stage on the broader transition to solid-state storage. As an example, the average NAND content in a smartphone was only about 25GB in 2016, a tenth of the levels for high-end flagship models. The transition from 128GB to 256GB for PC SSDs, with line of sight to 512GB, reaching cost parity with hard drives is increasingly a consensus view. In the data center, high density SSDs are playing a pivotal role to usher in new architectures.

雖然人們持續關注從 2D 到 3D 的轉換進展，但我們認為，整個產業在向固態儲存的更廣泛過渡方面還處於更早的階段。例如，2016 年智慧型手機的平均 NAND 容量只有 25GB 左右，僅為高階旗艦機型容量的十分之一。PC SSD 從 128GB 過渡到 256GB，並最終達到 512GB，與硬碟在價格上趨於一致，這已成為一種日益普遍的共識。在資料中心領域，高密度固態硬碟在引領新架構的到來中發揮關鍵作用。

Consistent with the headlines of our recent analyst meeting, this is a world of increasing content. Combined, these trends are on-track to drive significant growth in revenues for our memory customers. We expect memory industry WFE in the high-teen billion dollars, with growth representing stable capital intensity in 2017 year-over-year. We expect foundry and logic investments to be flattish in 2017, characterized by investments primarily in new 10nm and 7nm capacity for leading-edge processors for both mobile and compute applications. Approximately a quarter of the foundry industry capacity we anticipate will be at the 20nm and below nodes by end of 2017. Matching capacity in aggregate, that is equivalent to the 28nm node. Coincident with this leading edge spending, we see meaningful investments at the 28nm and 40nm nodes for various types of sensor and communications chips from mobile and IOT applications again this year.

正如我們最近分析師會議的主題所言，這是一個內容日益豐富的世界。綜合來看，這些趨勢可望顯著提升我們記憶體客戶的收入。我們預計記憶體產業 WFE 規模將達到十億美元以上，2017 年的成長將反映出資本密集度的穩定成長。我們預計 2017 年晶圓代工和邏輯晶片投資將保持平穩，其特點是投資主要集中在用於移動和計算應用的前沿處理器的 10nm 和 7nm 新產能。我們預計到 2017 年底，晶圓代工產業產能的約四分之一將達到 20 奈米及以下節點。總產能與 28nm 節點相當。與這種前沿領域的支出一致，我們今年再次看到 28nm 和 40nm 節點上用於行動和物聯網應用的各種感測器和通訊晶片的重大投資。

Overall, we think WFE is likely to grow mid- to high-single digits in 2017 to the mid- $37 billion level, plus or minus $2 billion. Consistent with our prior commentary at this time, we expect investments by domestic China memory companies more a 2018 story than 2017. We remain optimistic about the focus on global supply and demand, and disciplined investment by all. In closing, let me take a moment to acknowledge the hard work and contributions of our global employees and the support of our customers, without which our past, present and future would not be possible. We are positive on long-term semiconductor growth and for 2017, specifically. From our comments, again today, I hope it is clear that we believe Lam is unmatched in its positioning and opportunity, relative to markets and technology transitions. With that, let me turn the call over to Doug.

整體而言，我們認為 2017 年 WFE 可能會以中高個位數成長，達到 370 億美元左右，上下浮動 20 億美元。與我們先前的評論一致，我們預計中國國內記憶體企業的投資在 2018 年比 2017 年更具發展潛力。我們仍然對全球供需平衡以及各方審慎的投資保持樂觀。最後，請允許我花一點時間感謝我們全球員工的辛勤工作和貢獻，以及我們客戶的支持，沒有你們，我們的過去、現在和未來都將不可能實現。我們看好半導體產業的長期成長，尤其看好 2017 年的發展前景。從我們今天的演講中，我希望大家能夠清楚地看到，我們認為 Lam 在市場和技術轉型方面，其定位和機會是無與倫比的。那麼，現在讓我把電話交給道格。

Okay. Thank you, Martin. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining our call today on what I know is a busy earnings day. We ended the calendar year with strong performance for the December quarter, exceeding the midpoint of our guidance on all financial metrics. We delivered record levels for shipments, revenue, operating income dollars and earnings-per-share, both through the December quarter, as well as for the calendar year 2016. Again, demonstrating the Company's ability to grow the business at a pace that is materially faster than WFE as a whole.

好的。謝謝你，馬丁。各位下午好，感謝大家今天參加我們的電話會議，我知道今天是財報季的繁忙日子。我們在12月季度取得了強勁的業績，所有財務指標均超過了我們先前預期的中位數，為本年度畫上了圓滿的句號。我們在出貨量、收入、營業收入和每股盈餘方面均創下歷史新高，無論是截至 12 月的季度，還是 2016 年全年。再次證明，該公司能夠以比 WFE 整體速度快得多的速度實現業務成長。

So let me dive more deeply into the December quarter. Momentum in our shipments continued, totaling $1.923 billion, which was up approximately 13% compared to the September quarter and was at the high-end of our guided range. Shipments for the combined memory segment came in at 61% of system shipments, which was up from 56% in the September quarter. Nonvolatile memory shipments made up 37% of the system shipments, which was down a little bit from 43% in the prior quarter. Customers are committed to their technology road maps, investing in their vision of economically scaling the technology in step with increasing product performance.

那麼，讓我更深入地探討十二月季度的情況。我們的出貨量持續成長，總額達到 19.23 億美元，比 9 月的季度成長了約 13%，處於我們預期範圍的高端。綜合記憶體部分的出貨量佔系統出貨量的 61%，高於 9 月季度的 56%。非揮發性記憶體出貨量佔系統出貨量的 37%，比上一季的 43% 略有下降。客戶致力於實現其技術路線圖，並投資於其願景，即隨著產品性能的提高，以經濟的方式擴展技術。

As we shared during our Analyst Day in November, this is an exciting time for this segment of the market, with 3D NAND possibly the largest growth driver in the industry. We are pleased with our leadership in 3D NAND; in particular, with our strong position in the most critical applications like the channel hole etch, the mold stack, and the word-line fill. DRAM shipments grew 24% of total system shipments, compared to 13% in the prior quarter. With the tightening of the supply demand balance in the DRAM segment, customers increased their investments in the December quarter. Content growth in areas such as servers and smartphones have contributed to a burn down of inventory and a corresponding upward movement in DRAM prices.

正如我們在 11 月的分析師日上分享的那樣，對於這個細分市場來說，這是一個激動人心的時刻，3D NAND 可能是該行業最大的成長驅動力。我們對自身在 3D NAND 領域的領先地位感到滿意；尤其是在通道孔蝕刻、模具堆疊和字線填充等最關鍵的應用領域，我們擁有強大的實力。DRAM 出貨量佔系統總出貨量的 24%，而上一季這一比例為 13%。由於DRAM市場供需平衡趨緊，客戶在12月季度增加了投資。伺服器和智慧型手機等領域的內容成長導致庫存消耗加快，DRAM 價格也隨之上漲。

The foundry segment remained strong at 31% of system shipments in the December quarter, which was down slightly in absolute dollars from the record level we saw in the September quarter. Foundry spend was focused primarily on 10nm. As Martin mentioned, we have made some significant market share gains in the foundry and logic space, as our customers are migrating to smaller geometries and implementing more challenging architectures. And finally, the logic and other segment contributed 8% of system shipments, which was flat with the September quarter.

12 月季度，晶圓代工業務在系統出貨量中佔 31%，表現依然強勁，但與 9 月季度創下的歷史新高相比，絕對金額略有下降。代工廠的支出主要集中在 10nm 製程。正如 Martin 所提到的，隨著我們的客戶轉向更小的幾何尺寸並實施更具挑戰性的架構，我們在代工和邏輯領域取得了顯著的市場份額成長。最後，邏輯和其他部分佔系統出貨量的 8%，與 9 月的季度持平。

December quarter revenues were $1.882 billion, which was up 15% compared to the prior quarter. Gross margin improved to 46.4%, which was up 120 basis points from the 45.2% in the September quarter. This was primarily due to business volumes, product and customer mix. And as I always mention, you should expect to see some quarter-to-quarter variability in gross margin due to multiple factors such as product mix, customer concentration and overall business volumes. And I will remind you that our financial model continues to be the right tool for you to use to build your own models, and to think about our ongoing financial performance.

12 月季度營收為 18.82 億美元，比上一季成長 15%。毛利率提高至 46.4%，比 9 月季度的 45.2% 提高了 120 個基點。這主要是由於業務量、產品和客戶組合所造成的。正如我一直提到的，由於產品組合、客戶集中度和整體業務量等多種因素的影響，毛利率會出現季度間的波動。我還要提醒各位，我們的財務模型仍然是你們建立自己的模型以及思考我們持續財務表現的正確工具。

Operating expenses came in at $384 million for the quarter, which was up from $372 million in the September quarter. OpEx decreased to about 20% of revenue in the quarter compared to 23% in the prior quarter. Spending allocated to R&D was about 64% of total spending in the December quarter, up from 63% in September. You should expect to see more variability in our quarterly spending in 2017 than historically, as we have changed our methodology in how we record variable compensation to better align the expense with the quarterly profitability.

本季營運支出為 3.84 億美元，高於 9 月季度的 3.72 億美元。本季營運支出佔收入的比例下降至約 20%，而上一季為 23%。12 月季度，研發支出佔總支出的約 64%，高於 9 月的 63%。預計 2017 年我們的季度支出將比以往更加波動，因為我們改變了記錄可變薪酬的方法，以便更好地將支出與季度盈利能力聯繫起來。

Operating profitability was very strong in the quarter. We generated operating income of $490 million, which was an increase of 34% compared to the $366 million that we generated in the September quarter. Operating margin increased to 26%, which was up from 22.4% in the prior quarter, driven by the higher revenue and an improvement in gross margin. The December quarter tax rate came in at about 15%, which was higher than the roughly 12% rate last quarter, and in line with our expectations. A rate in the middle-teens would be a reasonable number for you to use in your modeling for the March quarter, as well as 2017.

本季營業利潤率非常強勁。我們實現了 4.9 億美元的營業收入，比 9 月季度實現的 3.66 億美元成長了 34%。營業利潤率提高至 26%，高於上一季的 22.4%，這主要得益於收入增加和毛利率提高。12 月季度的稅率約為 15%，高於上一季的約 12%，符合我們的預期。對於您在模擬 3 月季度以及 2017 年的業績時，十幾個百分點的成長率是一個合理的數字。

Based on a share count of approximately 181 million shares, earnings-per-share for the December quarter were $2.24. The share count includes dilution from both the 2018 and 2041 convertible notes with a total dilutive impact of about 16 million shares on a non-GAAP basis. And I will just remind you, dilution schedules for the remaining convertible notes are available on our Investor Relations website for your reference. We returned $0.30 per share for a total of $48 million in dividend distributions to our shareholders in the quarter. At our analyst meeting in November, we announced an increase in the dividend level to $0.45 per share; the first distribution at the new level was paid out earlier in the month of January. In addition, we initiated purchases under our $1 billion board authorized share repurchase program, which was also announced that our analyst event. In the December quarter, we spent $65 million and took delivery of approximately 619,000 shares at an average share price of $105 per share.

根據約 1.81 億股的股數計算，12 月季度的每股收益為 2.24 美元。股份數量包括 2018 年和 2041 年可轉換票據的稀釋，以非 GAAP 準則計算，總稀釋影響約為 1,600 萬股。我還要提醒各位，剩餘可轉換債券的稀釋計畫已發佈在我們的投資者關係網站上，供您參考。本季度，我們向股東派發了每股 0.30 美元的股息，總計 4,800 萬美元。在 11 月的分析師會議上，我們宣布將股息水準提高到每股 0.45 美元；1 月早些時候，我們已按新水準支付了第一筆股息。此外，我們還啟動了經董事會批准的 10 億美元股票回購計劃，該計劃也在分析師會議上宣布。在 12 月季度，我們花費了 6500 萬美元，以每股 105 美元的平均價格接收了約 619,000 股股票。

Let me now take you to the balance sheet. We ended the quarter with $6.089 billion in cash and cash equivalents on the balance sheet. The cash remains approximately 40% onshore and 60% offshore. During the quarter, we redeemed the $600 million 2023 senior notes and the $1 billion 2026 senior notes under the special mandatory redemption provision of those notes.

現在讓我帶您來看資產負債表。本季末，我們的資產負債表上現金及現金等價物為 60.89 億美元。現金儲備約40%在境內，60%在境外。本季度，我們根據這些票據的特殊強制贖回條款贖回了 6 億美元的 2023 年高級票據和 10 億美元的 2026 年高級票據。

Cash generation for the Company continues to be healthy. In the December quarter, we generated $404 million in cash from operations. In the December quarter, day sales outstanding improved to 69 days from 72 days; inventory turns also improved from 3.9 times to 4.1 times. We exited the December quarter with a deferred revenue balance $673 million, down a little bit from $704 million in the September quarter. That number excludes approximately $129 million for shipments to customers in Japan. This number is up from $65 million last quarter.

公司現金流狀況依然良好。在 12 月季度，我們從經營活動中產生了 4.04 億美元的現金。12 月季度，應收帳款週轉天數從 72 天改善至 69 天；庫存週轉率也從 3.9 次改善至 4.1 次。截至 12 月季末，我們的遞延收入餘額為 6.73 億美元，比 9 月季度的 7.04 億美元略有下降。該數字不包括銷往日本客戶的約 1.29 億美元貨款。這一數字比上一季的6500萬美元有所上升。

I would like to remind you that those Japanese shipments remain as inventory carried at cost on the balance sheet and will convert to revenue in future quarters. I do expect to see deferred revenue grow again in the March quarter. Company non-cash expenses during the quarter included the following; $32 million for equity compensation, $39 million for amortization and $38 million for depreciation. Capital expenditures were $37 million, which is down a little bit from the $42 million that we spent in the September quarter. We exited the quarter with approximately 8,200 regular full-time employees; headcount additions were targeted at supporting increased business levels and customer ramps.

我想提醒各位，這些日本貨物的出貨量仍作為庫存按成本計入資產負債表，並將在未來幾季轉化為收入。我預計3月季度的遞延收入將再次成長。本季公司非現金支出包括：股權激勵支出 3,200 萬美元，攤銷支出 3,900 萬美元，折舊支出 3,800 萬美元。資本支出為 3700 萬美元，比 9 月季度的 4,200 萬美元略有下降。本季末，我們擁有約 8,200 名正式全職員工；增加員工人數旨在支持業務成長和客戶拓展。

Let me now turn to our outlook for the March quarter. I would like to provide you with our non-GAAP guidance. We are expecting record shipments of $2.350 billion, plus or minus $75 million. We expect record revenues of $2.125 billion, plus or minus $75 million. We expect gross margin of 45.5%, plus or minus one percentage point. Gross margin is down somewhat from the previous quarter due to business mix. Forecasting operating margins up 25.5%, plus or minus one percentage point. Spending is up in the forecast due to profit dependent expenses and payroll related taxes, in addition to new R&D investments. And finally, we forecast record earnings-per-share of $2.55, plus or minus $0.10 based on a share count of approximately 180 million shares.

現在讓我來談談我們對三月季度的展望。我想向您提供我們的非GAAP財務指引。我們預計出貨量將達到創紀錄的 23.5 億美元，上下浮動 7,500 萬美元。我們預計營收將創下21.25億美元的紀錄，上下浮動7,500萬美元。我們預期毛利率為 45.5%，上下浮動一個百分點。由於業務組合的變化，毛利率較上一季略有下降。預計營業利潤率將成長 25.5%，上下浮動一個百分點。由於與利潤相關的支出和工資相關稅收，以及新的研發投資，預計支出將會增加。最後，我們預測每股盈餘將創下 2.55 美元的歷史新高，上下浮動 0.10 美元，基於約 1.8 億股的股票數量。

In closing, we are very pleased with our performance in the December quarter, as well as calendar year 2016, and the milestones we achieved throughout the year. Looking ahead, we remain committed to our objective of creating value for shareholders and to successfully executing on the growth opportunities ahead of us. We continue to expect 2017 will be a first half weighted year, with shipments more first half weighted than revenue. Also, as we sit here today relative to the June quarter, we are expecting June shipments that are roughly in line with what we are seeing for March. That concludes my prepared remarks. Operator, Martin and I would now like to open up the call for questions.

最後，我們對 2016 年 12 月季度以及全年的業績和所取得的里程碑都非常滿意。展望未來，我們將持續致力於為股東創造價值，並成功掌握未來的成長機會。我們仍預期 2017 年上半年將是業績佔比較高的一年，出貨量在上半年的比例將高於營收。此外，就目前的情況來看，相對於六月的季度，我們預計六月的出貨量將與三月的出貨量大致持平。我的發言稿到此結束。接線生馬丁和我現在想開始接受提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Timothy Arcuri, Cowen and Company.

Timothy Arcuri，Cowen and Company。

Thank you very much. So I guess, Doug, the first question I have is as you look -- obviously, you have some concentration issues in March. But do you think that the concentration is going to get a little better, or a bit more favorable as you look out to June, and the shipments are basically flat?

非常感謝。所以我想，道格，我的第一個問題是，正如你所看到的——很明顯，你在三月出現了一些注意力不集中的問題。但您認為隨著6月的到來，市場集中度會略有改善，或者情況會更有利嗎？目前出貨量基本持平。

Yes, it might, Tim. But as I always remind you, keep in mind the financial model when you model things. We are right in the sweet spot of where we should be, relative to that financial model, relative to operating income percentage and gross margin and spending, obviously, both go into that number. But we are kind of where we should be, is how I think about. There will always be puts and takes around it, as you have seen over the last couple of years.

是的，有可能，提姆。但我總是提醒你們，在建立模型時，要牢記財務模型。就財務模型而言，就營業收入百分比、毛利率和支出（顯然，這兩者都影響到這個數字）而言，我們正處於我們應該達到的最佳位置。但我認為，我們現在所處的位置基本上符合預期。就像過去幾年你所看到的，圍繞這個問題總會有爭論和反駁。

Okay, and then just a question -- you guys are doing a great job; there is no question about that. Everybody can get that. But as you think strategically, Martin, as you are looking out a couple years -- KLA would have been great, but it did not happen. So as you think about making hay when the sun shines right now, and how you want to remake the Company for the next couple of years, is display something that is interesting to you, given that we seem very early in that cycle? Is there any technology you can bring to bear, maybe in that vertical? Thank you.

好的，最後還有一個問題──你們做得非常出色，這點毋庸置疑。人人都能得到。但馬丁，從戰略角度來看，展望未來幾年——KLA本來會很棒，但它並沒有發生。所以，當您考慮趁現在情況大好抓住機遇，以及您希望在未來幾年如何重塑公司時，鑑於我們似乎還處於這個週期的早期階段，展示一些您感興趣的東西是否合適呢？您能否運用任何技術，或許可以應用在這個垂直領域？謝謝。

Probably the most important thing to say in response to that question, Tim -- and I appreciate your comments about the performance of the Company, thank you -- is that actually there is no need to kind of remake the Company. We are not sitting here as a leadership team feeling encumbered with that responsibility for several reasons. The first reason is, the Company is performing very well. The second reason is in the context of how we expect the market to evolve in the next several years, in the context of these secular demand drivers for the semiconductor industry. More broadly, the KLA-Tencor conversation for the Company was leveraging a position of strength, and that is the position of strength we expect to continue for a number of years.

提姆，對於這個問題，最重要的一點可能是——我很感謝你對公司業績的評論——實際上沒有必要對公司進行某種程度的重組。我們領導團隊並沒有因為以下幾個原因而感到肩負重任。第一個原因是，公司業績非常好。第二個原因是，我們預期未來幾年市場將如何發展，以及半導體產業的這些長期需求驅動因素。更廣泛地說，KLA-Tencor 的談判對公司而言是為了利用自身優勢地位，而我們預計這種優勢地位將持續多年。

I feel like we have a tremendous opportunity with the product portfolio in the markets that we currently occupy. As we touched upon, albeit briefly in the analyst meeting, we have attention always to capital redistribution conversations, we have attention always to adjacent market growth opportunities. And that strategic dialogue has always been active, and will continue to be active. But I feel like even if we took no action relative to product to markets, the story of the Company in the next several years is going to be a story of outperformance. If we continue to execute in the way that we have.

我覺得憑藉我們目前所處市場的產品組合，我們擁有巨大的發展機會。正如我們在分析師會議上簡要提及的那樣，我們始終關注資本再分配的討論，也始終關注鄰近市場的成長機會。這種戰略對話一直都很活躍，並將繼續保持活躍。但我覺得，即使我們不採取任何與產品上市相關的行動，公司未來幾年的發展將是一個業績優異的故事。如果我們繼續按照目前的方式執行。

Thanks, Tim.

謝謝你，提姆。

Thank you. CJ Muse, Evercore.

謝謝。CJ Muse，Evercore。

Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my question. I guess first question is sustainability and longer, stronger cycle kind of question. I guess within that, perhaps we could just focus on the NAND side. Curious, how do you think about -- and I know you put up the $50 billion number, but how do you think about, perhaps, a world where there is more conversions next year, as opposed to greenfield? And your exposure to both, and whether or not the strong level of spend in NAND that we are seeing today can continue into calendar 2018 and beyond.

午安.感謝您回答我的問題。我想第一個問題是關於永續性以及更長、更強的循環週期之類的問題。我想，或許我們可以把重點放在 NAND 快閃記憶體方面。我很好奇，您如何看待——我知道您提出了 500 億美元的數字，但您如何看待明年可能出現更多改建項目而不是新建項目的情況？以及您對這兩者的投資，還有我們今天看到的 NAND 領域強勁的支出水準能否持續到 2018 年及以後。

CJ, very good question, thank you. So, a couple of things to say. Maybe I will step up a little bit from the NAND dialogue here, just to give a little bit of context. In our prepared comments today, Doug specifically called out an expectation that shipments in the June quarter would be somewhat similar to the shipments in the March quarter. We have talked about a couple of times now, an expectation that this a WFE year that has a bias more to the first half than the second half, and we will see where the year ends out.

CJ，問得好，謝謝。有幾點要說。也許我應該稍微偏離一下 NAND 的話題，提供一些背景資訊。在今天我們準備好的評論中，道格特別指出，預計 6 月季度的出貨量將與 3 月季度的出貨量大致相同。我們已經討論過好幾次了，預計今年的 WFE 賽季上半年會比下半年更突出，讓我們拭目以待，看看今年最終會如何發展。

But if you ask me today what I expect the balance to be in terms of shipments and WFE, it is hard for us to see, today, at an industry level and the Company level, a better balance in shipments and WFE than 55-45 first half, second half. The NAND flash segment is one of the segments that is a little more acute from that, in terms of first half bias. In large part, simply a byproduct of the timing of customer investment decisions. And not every NAND flash customer in the world is biased to first half investments, but for some, of all of the market as best we understand it today, is slightly more first half concentrated than the overall 55-45 reference that I just gave you for the industry. So in answer, more specifically to your question, we clearly take a position that the secular trends, the multitude of demand drivers, the SSD roadmap that our customers are invested in, is a multi-year and a long-term reality.

但如果你今天問我，我預計出貨量和 WFE 的平衡情況會如何，就目前而言，無論是在行業層面還是公司層面，我們很難看到出貨量和 WFE 的平衡情況比上半年 55-45 和下半年 55-45 更好。就前半段偏差而言，NAND 快閃記憶體部分是其中較為嚴重的部分之一。很大程度上，這只是客戶投資決策時機的副產品。並非世界上所有 NAND 快閃記憶體客戶都偏愛半年投資，但就我們目前對整個市場的理解而言，某些客戶的投資在上半年的集中度略高於我剛才提到的整個行業的 55-45 參考值。因此，更具體地回答您的問題，我們明確表示，長期趨勢、眾多需求驅動因素以及我們的客戶所投入的 SSD 路線圖，都是多年且長期的現實。

And we have articulated, I hope, the substance of the positioning of Lam Research in the mix of enabling that, and the etch and the deposition portfolios of the Company get stronger. And they are as relevant, if not more relevant, today than they were a month or two ago, relative to the future of our customers. We -- as we think about the question, I would say, 3D NAND is clearly a very strategic investment, number one. Number two, there is a multitude of demand drivers that are very well-established and legitimate, I think, for our customers. We do see discipline, and the timing is really just a byproduct of individual choices for investment for our customers.

我希望，我們已經闡明了 Lam Research 在實現這一目標方面所扮演的角色，以及公司蝕刻和沈積產品組合的增強。而且，就我們客戶的未來而言，它們在今天仍然具有同等重要的意義，甚至比一兩個月前更重要。我們——當我們思考這個問題時，我想說，3D NAND 顯然是一項非常有戰略意義的投資，這是第一點。第二，我認為，對於我們的客戶來說，有許多非常成熟且合理的需求驅動因素。我們確實看到了紀律性，而時機實際上只是我們客戶個人投資選擇的副產品。

We expect to end the year with less capacity in qualification than when we started the year, which maybe is another commentary on discipline. And maybe, most important than all, the capital intensity conversation is really unchanged year-over-year, which, I think, is a positive for the industry. And in addition, last comment, the investment plans of the industry to transition to 3D in our models would cause us to end this year with less than half the installed base, 3D capable. So multiple year investment for demand and technology roadmap drivers.

我們預計年底的資格賽成績將不如年初，這或許也說明了紀律的重要性。或許最重要的是，資本密集度方面的討論與去年相比並沒有太大變化，我認為這對產業來說是一個好消息。此外，最後一點，產業向 3D 模型過渡的投資計畫將導致我們今年年底時，具備 3D 功能的已安裝設備數量將不足原來的一半。因此，需要對需求和技術路線圖驅動因素進行多年投資。

That is very helpful. If I could just ask a quick follow-up, I guess Doug, as we look at deferred revs, including Japan growing again, and shipments being more first half oriented. Is there a dollar figure we should be thinking about, where revenues will surpass shipments for all of calendar 2017?

那很有幫助。如果我能夠快速問一個後續問題，我想問格，因為我們正在考慮遞延收入，包括日本再次增長，以及出貨量更多地集中在上半年。我們是否應該考慮一個具體的美元數字，即2017年全年收入將超過出貨量？

I am not going to give you a dollar number, CJ, but I will remind you. The way to think about it is when you have an accelerating shipment profile like we have had, you always get revenue lags, as -- it just takes time to get things into the fab and they get accepted. And you are seeing a guide in March where revenue, again, is lagging shipments, so I expect deferred revenue will build in March. What happens when shipments level off, or if they -- in one quarter, might be down a little bit, then revenue will catch up. Over time, it all normalizes and it is going to be the same numbers, right? It is just a matter of the rate of change, the second derivative, if you will, of what is going on there.

CJ，我不會告訴你具體的金額，但我會提醒你。可以這樣理解：當出貨量像我們這樣加速成長時，收入總是會落後，因為——產品進入工廠並被驗收需要時間。3 月的業績指南顯示，營收再次落後於出貨量，因此我預期 3 月的遞延收入將會增加。如果出貨量趨於平穩，或者某個季度略有下降，那麼收入將會趕上來。隨著時間的推移，一切都會恢復正常，最終數字都會保持不變，對嗎？這只是變化率的問題，或者說是那裡正在發生的事情的二階導數的問題。

Maybe last point to add on that, if you take our long-term model, which Doug has already said is the guidance we can give you always for modeling the financials of the Company. If you look at the stated revenue model for the Company in the 2017, 2018 timeframe, at a $35 billion WFE. Implied by that model, and our statements today, around WFE expectations for 2017, would cause you to conclude that a revenue level for the Company in the $8 billion range is a reasonable stake in the ground. Now, that is obviously not a forecast, it is not guidance. It is kind of triangulating around the disclosure of the Company, and if WFE turns out in the way that we have articulated today, we would expect an $8 billion reference for revenues as a legitimate framework for modeling the Company.

最後補充一點，如果你採用我們的長期模型，正如 Doug 已經說過的那樣，這是我們始終可以為你提供的關於公司財務建模的指導。如果你看一下公司在 2017 年、2018 年期間公佈的收入模式，其世界財政收入為 350 億美元。根據該模型以及我們今天關於 WFE 對 2017 年的預期所做的聲明，您會得出這樣的結論：該公司 80 億美元的收入水平是一個合理的預期。顯然，這並非預測，也並非指導。它有點像是圍繞著公司揭露資訊進行三角測量，如果 WFE 的發展方向與我們今天闡述的一致，我們預計 80 億美元的收入將作為公司建模的合法框架。

For calendar 2017.

適用於2017年曆。

Thank you. Stephen Chin, UBS.

謝謝。Stephen Chin，瑞銀集團。

Thanks. Hi Martin and Doug. Nice results and guidance, as well.

謝謝。嗨，馬丁和道格。結果不錯，指導也很到位。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, Stephen.

謝謝你，史蒂芬。

I just wanted to just follow up on the DRAM view for 2017, can you remind us of how much Lam has historically outperformed the DRAM spends on -- during these WFE upturns? Last year, I think you said Lam's NAND shipments outgrew the industry by 2X; is the DRAM somewhere along the same lines as NAND outperformance?

我只是想跟進一下 2017 年的 DRAM 市場觀點，您能否提醒我們一下，在 WFE 市場回暖期間，Lam 晶片的歷史表現比 DRAM 晶片的支出高出多少？去年，我記得你說過林氏的 NAND 出貨量是業界平均的兩倍；DRAM 的表現是否也和 NAND 一樣出色？

I have to profess, I do not know the exact number off the top of my head. If we can get it by the end of this call, we will provide it. But needless to say, we are in great shape in terms of DRAM position. It has a dominant profile to it in terms of conversion spending, and the segment of etch, particularly, is in the kind of top end of the investment of the customers that are typically upgrading from one node to the other. There was a noticeable headwind for us last year because of a reduced spending, and that situation is very different this year. Now all that said, in spite of the fact that we expect more investment in calendar 2017 in DRAM than 2016, we still expect a level of investment in DRAM in 2017 to be lower than the levels of 2014 and 2015. Just as a proxy, and I think everyone understands pricing tells the story, and it tells the story really well right now in DRAM relative to supply and demand balance, or even maybe constrained.

我必須承認，我一時想不出確切的數字。如果我們能在本次通話結束前拿到，我們會提供。但毋庸置疑，我們在DRAM領域佔有​​非常有利的地位。就轉化支出而言，它具有主導地位，尤其是蝕刻部分，屬於客戶投資的高端領域，這些客戶通常是從一個節點升級到另一個節點。去年由於支出減少，我們面臨明顯的逆風，而今年的情況則大不相同。綜上所述，儘管我們預計 2017 年 DRAM 的投資額將超過 2016 年，但我們仍預期 2017 年 DRAM 的投資水準將低於 2014 年和 2015 年的水準。作為一種參考指標，我認為大家都明白價格能說明問題，就目前的 DRAM 市場而言，價格很好地反映了供需平衡，甚至可能處於受限狀態。

Okay, thanks for sharing that, Martin. And then just a follow-up question on your view about domestic China being a 2018 opportunity, as opposed to a 2017 opportunity. Is your view that developing intellectual property is kind of the key hurdle rate for domestic China before they spend?

好的，謝謝你分享這些訊息，馬丁。那麼，我還有一個後續問題，關於您認為中國國內市場是 2018 年的機遇，而不是 2017 年的機會。您是否認為，發展智慧財產權是中國國內企業進行投資的關鍵門檻之一？

Well, I think maybe what is true for all of us in the supply chain is two things need to come together, or maybe at least two things need to come together to be successful. You have to have the money to fund investment, and you have to have the know-how, the competency and the capability to execute. And you know reality is for all of us, getting access to know-how, competence and capability includes a broad range of initiatives and technology licensing. And acquisition can be one of them, but it is not the only one. And so I would maybe say our view relative to China, and to be very clear, I specifically called out China domestic memory as my message today. Clearly, there is a history and a reality and a future of well-established, domestic foundry investments in China, as well as the participation of the global equipment -- the global semiconductor companies. My comment was really focused on domestic China memory more 2018 than 2017, and money and know-how competence and capability is what it takes for all of us, in any part of the world, to go execute.

我認為，對於供應鏈中的所有人來說，或許成功的秘訣在於兩件事必須結合起來，或至少兩件事必須結合起來。你必須有資金進行投資，並且你必須有專業知識、能力和技能來執行投資。而現實是，對我們所有人來說，獲得專業知識、能力和技能需要廣泛的舉措和技術許可。收購可能是其中一種方式，但不是唯一的方式。因此，我或許會說說我們對中國的看法，而且要非常明確地說明，我今天特別提到了中國國內的記憶問題。顯然，中國擁有成熟的國內晶圓代工投資的歷史、現實和未來，以及全球設備——全球半導體公司的參與。我的評論主要關注的是中國國內的記憶，更多是2018年而不是2017年，而資金、專業知識、能力和技能是我們所有人，無論身處世界何地，想要有所作為都需要的。

Thanks, Stephen.

謝謝你，史蒂芬。

Thank you. Farhan Ahmad, Credit Suisse.

謝謝。Farhan Ahmad，瑞士信貸。

Thanks for letting me ask a question, and congrats on the great results. My first question, Doug, is on the potential tax reform. You guys have a significant amount of your cash offshore; how should we think about your capital return, if there is a tax reform? Have you given any thought to it?

謝謝您允許我提問，也祝賀您取得了優異的成績。道格，我的第一個問題是關於潛在的稅制改革。你們在海外有大量現金；如果進行稅制改革，我們該如何看待你們的資本回報？你有沒有想過這個問題？

Yes, you think about it all the time, Farhan. The practical reality is until there is a definitive law out there that you can understand exactly what it requires and what it allows you to do, it is hard to specifically answer the question. Obviously, if we get accessibility to worldwide cash without a heavy tax penalty, that creates a whole lot more flexibility for us to access the cash to do a variety of different things. Some of which might be capital return, investment in the business, as Martin talked about, adjacent M&A. We have not had any definitive conversations because it is just too early right now, and too much uncertainty. But stay tuned; we are paying very close attention to it.

是的，法罕，你一直在想這件事。實際情況是，在有明確的法律條文出台，能夠讓你確切地了解它要求什麼以及允許你做什麼之前，很難具體回答這個問題。顯然，如果我們能夠不受重稅懲罰地獲取全球資金，這將為我們獲取資金以進行各種不同的事情創造更大的靈活性。其中一些可能是資本回報、對業務的投資，正如馬丁所說，以及相關的併購。我們還沒有進行任何確切的對話，因為現在時間太早，而且有太多不確定因素。但請繼續關注，我們正在密切關注此事。

Thank you. And as a follow-up, I just had a question on the linearity of the year. You talked about March quarter and June quarter being significantly higher than December. Can you provide us some color on what is driving the incremental growth from December quarter to first half of the year? Is it primarily NAND, or are you seeing more growth in other areas, as well? And is the linearity between first half and second half -- any different between different segments?

謝謝。作為後續問題，我還有一個關於年份線性關係的問題。你曾提到3月份和6月份的季度業績明顯高於12月份的季度業績。能否詳細說明一下，是什麼因素推動了從去年12月季度到今年上半年的成長？主要是NAND快閃記憶體的成長，還是其他領域也有所成長？前半部和後半部之間的線性關係是否有所不同？不同部分之間是否有差異？

You know, Farhan, you heard Martin describe kind of more first half weighted overall, both WFE and shipments, and also describe NAND is maybe more first-half weighted than the other stuff, so that is a data point for you. When we look at March, as well as June, everything is pretty strong. Everything -- investments are occurring at leading-edge, it is NAND, DRAM, it is foundry logic, it is hitting on all cylinders, from my perspective. I do not know, Martin, if you --

Farhan，你知道，Martin 描述說，無論是 WFE 還是出貨量，整體上半年的權重都比較高，他還提到 NAND 快閃記憶體的權重可能比其他產品更高，所以這對你來說是一個數據點。從三月和六月的數據來看，一切都相當強勁。從我的角度來看，所有方面——投資都在最前沿進行，無論是 NAND 快閃記憶體、DRAM，還是晶圓代工邏輯，都在全力以赴。馬丁，我不知道你是否——

I would say maybe, just to be very direct, our shipment guidance today for March quarter assumes that there will be sequential growth across foundry, DRAM and NAND. Next question, please.

坦白說，我們今天對三月季度的出貨量預期是，晶圓代工、DRAM 和 NAND 都將實現環比成長。下一個問題。

Do have a follow-up, Farhan?

法罕，你還有後續問題嗎？

Harlan Sur, JPMorgan.

哈蘭‧蘇爾，摩根大通。

Good afternoon, and great job on the quarterly execution and outlook. At Analyst Day, I think you guys showed a slide that China WFE spending is up this year. And I think the biggest component of that was the incremental growth coming from the domestic China programs. So first of all, do still see the spending landscape turning out this way for 2017? And I assume most of the domestic China spend is more 28nm and 20nm foundry and logic. Any insight to it would be appreciated.

下午好，季度執行和展望工作做得非常出色。在分析師日上，你們展示了一張幻燈片，顯示今年中國女性在家辦公支出有所增加。我認為其中最大的組成部分是來自中國國內項目的逐步增長。首先，您認為2017年的消費格局還會繼續這樣發展嗎？而且我認為中國國內的大部分支出都用於 28nm 和 20nm 的晶圓代工和邏輯電路。任何見解都將不勝感激。

Actually, our China perspective today, I feel, is actually unchanged from the commentary of the analyst meeting. Clearly, there is an ambitious agenda; our assumption is there is a greater investment in calendar 2017 in China. And the largest single component of that expansion year-over-year, we have assumed, is domestic, not international, and it's logic foundry in focus.

實際上，我認為我們今天對中國的看法，與分析家會議上的評論並沒有改變。顯然，中國有一個雄心勃勃的計劃；我們推測，2017 年中國將加強投資。我們認為，這種逐年擴張的最大單一組成部分是國內市場，而不是國際市場，而邏輯鑄造廠正處於焦點。

Great. Thanks for the insights there.

偉大的。謝謝你的見解。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Given your advanced equipment tool systems, process modules, I am assuming that it is becoming more difficult for your customers not to be engaged in some sort of service and productivity engagement. So as it relates to your installed base business, and I think, last, you gave us an update, it is about 25% of your business. You been growing that at a stable, double-digit CAGR, a very accretive to the cash flow generation. So for calendar 2016, how much did your services business grow, both revenues and operating profitability, and do you guys expect it to grow double digits this calendar year?

鑑於貴公司擁有先進的設備工具系統和製程模組，我認為貴公司的客戶越來越難以不參與某種形式的服務和生產力提升活動。所以，就你們的已安裝基礎業務而言，我認為，上次你們給我們做了更新，它大約佔你們業務的 25%。你們一直保持著兩位數的穩定複合年增長率，這對現金流的產生非常有益。那麼，就 2016 年曆年而言，貴公司的服務業務成長了多​​少？包括收入和營業利潤？你們預計今年的服務業務能達到兩位數的成長嗎？

Yes, Harlan, it grew consistent with our expectations. I cannot remember off the top of my head if it grew a little bit more than the equipment business or not, but it was roughly in line. It is still roughly a quarter of the Company's overall business, and you have it right. It is very cash generative, very profitable business, very broad-based in terms of the number of engagements and number of customers. Generally speaking, that chart that Tim Archer showed you at the Analyst Day, we are very much on-track to deliver that growth that we had targeted and are targeting.

是的，哈蘭，它的成長符合我們的預期。我一時想不起來它的成長速度是否比設備業務略快一些，但大致相當。這仍然約占公司整體業務的四分之一，你說得對。這是一個現金流充裕、利潤豐厚的業務，業務範圍非常廣泛，涉及的客戶數量和業務活動數量都很多。總的來說，正如蒂姆·阿徹在分析師日上向大家展示的那張圖表所示，我們完全有信心實現我們既定的成長目標。

I think one of the reasons why we answer the question the way that what we do, Harlan, is because there are two value propositions of the customer service business group. And one of them is the contribution to the Company of profitable growth, which is the essence of your question. The second is the contribution to the Company through the delivery of installed base performance that makes the underlying systems businesses of etch and deposition and clean more competitive and more valuable to the customer and to the Company. That is how I think about the totality of value that is possible for the customer and the Company, and so the specificity of income statements by segment is not so relevant for us.

哈蘭，我認為我們以這種方式回答這個問題的原因之一是，客戶服務業務集團有兩個價值主張。其中之一是對公司獲利成長的貢獻，這正是你問題的本質。第二點是透過提供已安裝基礎性能為公司做出貢獻，使蝕刻、沉積和清洗等基礎系統業務更具競爭力，對客戶和公司更有價值。這就是我對客戶和公司可能獲得的全部價值的思考方式，因此按業務板塊劃分的損益表的具體情況對我們來說並不那麼重要。

Thanks, Harlan.

謝謝你，哈蘭。

Krish Sankar, Bank of America.

Krish Sankar，美國銀行。

Hello, thanks for taking my question. Congrats, again, on the good execution, guys. Two quick questions. First one, I just want to ask, the DRAM CapEx question a different way. If you look at the DRAM WFE spending last year and possibly this year, it is going to be roughly half of the NAND WFE spend. Do you see that increasing for DRAM to go back to the 2014, 2015 levels, or do you think conversions are going to be the norm this year and into next year. That what you are going to see in DRAM WFE is going to bounce off the bottom, or bounce off the really low levels of 2016? And then I had a follow-up.

您好，感謝您回答我的問題。再次恭喜各位，執行得非常出色。兩個問題，簡單問一下。首先，我想換個方式問一下DRAM資本支出的問題。如果看看去年的 DRAM WFE 支出，以及今年的支出，它大約是 NAND WFE 支出的一半。您認為DRAM價格會回升到2014年、2015年的水平嗎？還是您認為今年和明年轉換將成為常態？你認為DRAM WFE的價格會從底部反彈，或者說從2016年的極低水準反彈嗎？然後我還有後續跟進。

Thank you for your comments there at the beginning. No, I think as I said a few minutes ago, our expectation is I would not describe it as a bounce. I would describe it as a demand driven investment by our customers, but the expectation is at the level of investments, it continues to be sustainable, continues to be disciplined. And we are certainly modeling a level of investment for 2017 that is lower than the levels of investment that it occurred in 2015 or 2014. But to your point, higher than 2016. It is probably a little early for us to get specific on segments at the WFE level, given that we are only in the first months of the year. But you should expect us to put more substance on that, maybe in the next earnings call.

感謝您一開始的評論。不，我認為就像我幾分鐘前說的那樣，我們的預期是，我不會把它描述為反彈。我會將其描述為客戶需求驅動的投資，但期望值與投資水平相當，它將繼續保持可持續性，並繼續保持紀律性。我們預計 2017 年的投資水準將低於 2015 年或 2014 年的投資水準。但正如你所說，高於 2016 年。鑑於現在才年初，我們可能還不太適合具體討論 WFE 層面的細分市場。但你們應該會期待我們對此做出更多實質說明，也許會在下次財報電話會議上。

Got it, got it. Thanks very much. And then a follow up. When do you expect the 3D NAND customers to move to 96 layer? And if you think it is going to happen next year, and NAND WFE holds up at these levels, and then you add in China's memory CapEx coming in from the domestics. Do you think that $40 billion plus of WFE is not going to be out of the range for next year? Thank you.

明白了，明白了。非常感謝。然後還有後續報道。您預計 3D NAND 使用者何時會轉向 96 層快閃記憶體？如果你認為明年就會發生這種情況，而 NAND WFE 能保持目前的水平，再加上中國國內的記憶體資本支出，那麼這種情況就可能發生。你認為明年WFE（世界經濟）規模超過400億美元不會超出預期嗎？謝謝。

Yes, maybe it is a little -- I will break your question into two parts. One of them is the kind of the technology roadmap of the customer. And I think we do not actually have a tremendous amount of data points in terms of the pacing of 3D device architecture kind of scaling. As you know, the end of last year and this year is really the first year where we have a broad participation by every semiconductor company in this space, in 3D device architecture. There is a roadmap, that is a multiple node roadmap. I think we presented that in analyst meeting, I think our customers talk about having multiple steps beyond the 64 layer device. And we currently have a stake in the ground, at kind of 18 months as a reasonable proxy. And obviously, our R&D engagements run all the way through the roadmap of the customer for the next five years.

是的，也許有點——我會把你的問題分成兩個部分。其中之一是客戶的技術路線圖。我認為，就 3D 設備架構的擴展速度而言，我們實際上並沒有大量的數據點。如您所知，去年年底和今年是所有半導體公司真正廣泛參與 3D 裝置架構領域的第一個年頭。有一個路線圖，那是一個多節點路線圖。我認為我們在分析師會議上提出了這一點，我認為我們的客戶談到了在 64 層設備之外還有多個步驟。目前我們已經取得了一些進展，大約 18 個月的時間可以作為合理的參考。顯然，我們的研發合作貫穿客戶未來五年的發展路線圖。

I think the answer to your economic question, investment levels is all a byproduct of momentum in the marketplace around this broad set of drivers and kind of momentum in terms of solid-state drive technology. And, you know I have read a bunch of questions around yields of customers in this technology, and I think, ironically, the investment is a commentary on confidence around yield. And I think ironically, the creation of demand in this space is somehow related to economics. There is a momentum around creating legitimacy in the vision of the entire ecosystem, and economics in scaling the device is central to that. And we are here to do the best we can to support the vision of our customers.

我認為，對於你的經濟問題，投資水準完全是市場圍繞一系列廣泛驅動因素以及固態硬碟技術發展勢頭而產生的副產品。而且，你知道，我讀過很多關於這項技術的客戶收益的問題，我認為，諷刺的是，這項投資是對收益信心的評論。諷刺的是，我認為這一領域的需求創造與經濟有著某種關聯。整個生態系統的願景正朝著合法化的方向發展，而設備規模化的經濟效益是實現這一目標的核心。我們竭盡所能，支持客戶的願景。

Thanks, Krish.

謝謝你，克里什。

Thank you. Sidney Ho, Deutsche Bank.

謝謝。西德尼·何，德意志銀行。

Thanks for taking my questions, and congratulations on results and guide. I want to go back to DRAM for a second. You talked about you expect DRAM WFE to go up double digits in 2017. But your customer suggest wafer capacity will be relatively unchanged from 2016. First of all, do you agree with that, and second, from your conversations with the customers, how much does capital intensity increase at 18 nm or 1X nm, and do you think Lam would do better in that?

感謝您解答我的問題，也祝賀您取得好成績並提供了指導。我想再回到DRAM的話題。你曾說過，你預計 DRAM WFE 在 2017 年將實現兩位數的成長。但您的客戶表示，晶圓產能與 2016 年相比將基本保持不變。首先，您是否同意這種說法？其次，根據您與客戶的交流，18 奈米或 1X 奈米製程的資本密集度會增加多少？您認為 Lam 在這方面會做得更好嗎？

Yes, I think we have an opinion, and it is always plus or minus. But we have an opinion that actual wafer starts, capacity for DRAM is relatively constant through the year, so our view right now is no material change in capacity, end of year 2017, compared to beginning of year at 2017. The best color I can give you right now on capital intensity is that it is dominated by conversion-based investments in DRAM. And we are not seeing a material positive or negative in the next several technology nodes around capital intensity. The position of the Company is very strong; we have good share, and as to your earlier question, good SAM presence in the context of WFE. I feel like we are positioned very nicely, but certainly no expectations of capacity addition, and if capacity addition does occur, I have every confidence it will be demand driven.

是的，我認為我們都有自己的看法，而且這種看法總是褒貶不一的。但我們認為，實際晶圓開工量和DRAM產能全年相對穩定，因此我們目前的看法是，2017年底的產能與2017年初相比不會發生實質變化。目前我能給出的關於資本密集度的最佳描述是，它主要由DRAM轉換型投資主導。在接下來的幾個技術節點中，我們沒有看到資本密集度方面出現實質的正面或負面變​​化。公司地位非常穩固；我們擁有良好的市場份額，至於你之前的問題，我們在 WFE 領域擁有良好的 SAM 地位。我覺得我們目前的處境非常好，但絕對不會增加產能，如果真的增加產能，我完全相信那會是需求驅動的。

Okay, great. And then my follow-up is similarly on the NAND side. You guys talk about 3D NAND shipped going -- installed capacity going up to 700,000 or more by the end of this year, but one of your biggest customers is only guiding full-year for the industry and themselves to be around 30% range. Is that because capital intensity is a lot higher for 64 layers, or are yields a lot worse than what we expected? And when do you expect an inflection point where this relationship maybe reverse itself?

好的，太好了。接下來，我的後續研究也同樣著重於 NAND 快閃記憶體方面。你們說 3D NAND 的出貨量——到今年年底，其裝置容量將達到 70 萬甚至更多，但你們最大的客戶之一卻預測，整個行業以及他們自己全年的出貨量都只能達到 30% 左右。這是因為 64 層結構的資本密集度高很多，還是收益率比我們預期的差很多？你認為這種關係何時會出現轉捩點，從而發生逆轉？

Maybe I am not quite understanding your question; I will take a shot at giving you some color on it. I think the commitment of every customer to their technology is a statement on either actual yields or planned and realizable yields in the eyes and minds of the customer. I think there is enough discipline around all of us that we make investments when we have confidence, and we do not make them when we are not. So, that would be a kind of generic answer to your question. And obviously, the intensity -- the investment levels, at least, of a 64 layer device are more than a 48, and the investment levels of 96 are more than 64. And the answer to your question, in terms of capital intensity, is going to be a byproduct of the pricing on the die when it comes off of wafer, and I think the customer is much better equipped to answer that and we are.

或許我沒完全理解你的問題；我試著給你解釋一下。我認為，每位客戶對其技術的投入，都反映了客戶眼中和心中對實際收益或計畫和可實現收益的看法。我認為我們周圍的人都有足夠的自律性，所以我們會在有信心的時候進行投資，而不會在沒有信心的時候進行投資。所以，這算是對你問題的一種通用回答。顯然，強度－至少 64 層元件的投資水準比 48 層元件高，而 96 層元件的投資水準又比 64 層元件高。至於你的問題，就資本密集度而言，答案將是晶片從晶圓上取下時的定價的副產品，我認為客戶更有能力回答這個問題，我們也是如此。

Toshiya Hari, Goldman Sachs.

Toshiya Hari，高盛集團。

Great, thanks for taking my question, and congrats on the solid execution. My first question is on EUV, and I realize it has only been a couple of months since your analyst day, but ASML, they continue to be pretty vocal about potential EUV deployment at the leading edge in a couple years. But when you sit down with customers and discuss N+1, N+2 technologies, do you sense any change in your opportunity over the next couple of years, or not so much?

太好了，謝謝你回答我的問題，也恭喜你出色地完成了任務。我的第一個問題是關於 EUV 的，我知道距離你們的分析師日才過去幾個月，但 ASML 仍然非常積極地談論未來幾年 EUV 在尖端技術部署方面的潛在前景。但是，當你與客戶坐下來討論 N+1、N+2 技術時，你是否感覺到未來幾年你的機會會有任何變化，還是變化不大？

The disclosure from everybody, privately and publicly, that we have access to -- causes me to say no change in the message of the analyst meeting. And to refresh, we articulated SAM expansion for Lam of 40% from the 2015, 2016 timeframe through the 2020. We are definitely an advocate of a technology innovation like EUV as a contribution to extending the value of the entire semi-ecosystem. And we are invested in contributing to the enablement of that to the extent that we can. So no real change; the set of assumptions that we articulated in terms of the number of passes and the economics of that implementation, for us. And I think importantly, the market characterization between spacer based multi-patterning and litho etch schemes, we would communicate, I think, exactly the same headlines and messages today as we did in the analyst meeting.

我們從所有能夠接觸到的資訊來源（包括私下和公開管道）了解到的情況，讓我覺得分析師會議的資訊不會有任何改變。再次強調，我們明確指出，從 2015 年、2016 年到 2020 年，Lam 的 SAM 擴張率為 40%。我們絕對支持像 EUV 這樣的技術創新，因為它有助於提升整個半導體生態系統的價值。我們致力於在力所能及的範圍內為此做出貢獻。所以沒有真正的改變；我們之前闡述的一系列關於傳球次數和實施經濟效益的假設，對我們來說仍然有效。我認為，更重要的是，對於基於間隔層的多重曝光和光刻蝕刻方案之間的市場特徵，我們今天傳達的訊息和標題與我們在分析師會議上傳達的訊息完全相同。

Okay, great, thank you. As my follow-up, I had a question on OpEx into the June quarter, if I may. You know, Doug, you talked about your OpEx number becoming more variable and dependent on profitability, I suppose in the quarter. If we assume revenue in June is kind of flattish relative to March, and gross margin is pretty stable. Is it fair to assume that your total OpEx number is also flattish relative to March, or is it not that simple?

好的，太好了，謝謝。作為後續問題，如果可以的話，我想問一下關於六月季度的營運支出。道格，你知道嗎，你之前說過你的營運支出數字變得更加不穩定，並且取決於盈利能力，我想是在這個季度。如果我們假設 6 月的營收與 3 月相比基本持平，毛利率也相當穩定。是否可以合理假設您的總營運支出與 3 月相比也基本持平，還是情況並非如此簡單？

That is probably a reasonable assumption, yes. It is -- that is not unreasonable.

是的，這或許是個合理的假設。這——這並非不合理。

Atif Malik, Citigroup.

阿提夫·馬利克，花旗集團。

Hi, thanks for taking my question, and congratulations. Martin, your outlook offered $37 billion WFE, that is lot more bullish than what the street is thinking. Can you just talk about what it will take to get the high end of that range, and the low-end, basically what is the swing factor?

您好，感謝您回答我的問題，也恭喜您。Martin，你預測WFE將達到370億美元，這比華爾街的預期要樂觀得多。您能談談要達到該範圍的高端和低端需要什麼條件嗎？基本上，擺動因素是什麼？

I guess we have a $4 billion range on this, which is customary for us. So what does it take to be at the high-end of any range? It takes legitimate demand for semiconductor devices and the need to add capacity. I go back to one of the core themes at the analyst meeting, this is no longer the world of a killer app nor one dominant device. And even that one dominant device that we talked about five years ago, I think by most people's view, is seeing a stabilizing of decline, or maybe even potential for growth this year. This is a world of secular demand and a very diverse set of demand drivers, and I think our customers, when I sit down with the customer today, the entire conversation is focused on, time to market for them, and enabling their business strategies and competitiveness ambition to prevail. So the simple answer is demand; if the vision of the customer and the industry and the performance of the entire ecosystem delivers what is possible, then we are in a multiple year period of expansion. And we have called out, specifically, what we think that means for our company.

我估計這筆投資的金額在 40 億美元左右，這對我們來說很正常。那麼，要達到任何級別中的高端水平需要具備哪些條件呢？這需要對半導體裝置有合理的需求，以及需要增加產能。我回到分析師會議的核心主題之一，如今的世界不再是一個殺手級應用或一個主導設備的時代。即使是我們五年前討論過的那款主流設備，我認為在大多數人看來，其下滑趨勢正在趨於穩定，甚至今年可能還有增長的潛力。這是一個由長期需求和多種需求驅動因素構成的世界，我認為，如今當我與客戶坐下來交談時，我們所有的談話都集中在如何幫助他們縮短產品上市時間，以及如何幫助他們實現業務戰略和競爭目標。所以，答案很簡單：需求；如果客戶和產業的願景以及整個生態系統的表現能夠實現一切可能，那麼我們將進入一個多年的擴張期。我們已經明確指出，我們認為這對我們公司意味著什麼。

As a follow-up for Doug, you had the product rationalization charges in the COGS line, can you just talk about what those products or areas were.

作為對 Doug 的後續提問，您在銷售成本 (COGS) 項中提到了產品合理化費用，您能否談談這些產品或領域具體是什麼？

I am not going to give you specificity; it is just investments we were making with an eye towards the penetration two nodes from now that did not end up coming to fruition. And so we ended up with some assets that did not have forward useful life, so that is what that was. It was an investment that we decided we were no longer investing in.

我不會透露具體細節；這只是我們為了滲透到兩個節點之外而進行的投資，但最終並沒有實現。因此，我們最終得到了一些沒有預期使用壽命的資產，事情就是這樣。我們決定不再投資這項投資了。

Patrick Ho, Stifel Nicolaus.

Patrick Ho，Stifel Nicolaus。

Thank you, and I would like to extend my congrats, as well. Martin, first of all, in terms of 3D NAND, a couple of years ago, before this market really took off like it has today, you talked about some of the capital intensity trends. But you have revised them higher over the last, you know, few analyst days. As the industry moves potentially to 96 layers and 128 layers in future years, is there the potential for increases in that capital intensity, as well? Or do you still feel very comfortable with the numbers you laid out at the most recent analyst day?

謝謝，我也想向你表示祝賀。馬丁，首先，就 3D NAND 而言，幾年前，在這個市場像今天這樣真正起飛之前，你談到了一些資本密集型趨勢。但在過去幾天的分析師報告中，你們已經上調了預期。隨著產業在未來幾年可能發展到 96 層和 128 層，資本密集度是否也有可能增加？或者，您仍然對最近一次分析師日上公佈的數據感到非常滿意嗎？

(Laughter). I guess the amusing interpretation of that is we are not so good at analytics -- (laughter) because it takes us a while to get it right. I feel like, actually, maybe it is all about Satya joining the Company, and that the analytics for the Company are now perfect. No, I actually think that we now have much more experience under our belts, right? To give us a little bit of credit, if you go back three to five years, this was a concept. And there was really only one customer in the world that was singularly committed to that device architecture. And collectively, we have gone through an incredible learning about what it takes to manufacture that device architecture. And we have gone through an incredible learning relative to how the customers individually implement, considering greenfield opportunities, conversion from planar to 3D, and plain, simple scaling of 3D capacity. So, I feel like -- knock on wood, that the analytics presented at the analyst meeting are good for the next several years, but I am sure you will ask the question in a year's time if I say something different.

（笑聲）。我想，對此最有趣的解釋是我們不太擅長數據分析——（笑聲）因為我們需要一段時間才能做對。我覺得，或許這一切都是因為薩蒂亞加入了公司，現在公司的分析數據已經完美了。不，我其實覺得我們現在已經累積了更多經驗，對吧？公平地說，如果回顧三到五年前，這還只是一個概念。而世界上真正堅定支援這種設備架構的客戶只有一個。我們共同經歷了一段令人難以置信的學習過程，了解了製造這種設備架構需要什麼。我們從客戶各自的實施方式中獲得了巨大的學習成果，包括考慮全新機會、從平面到 3D 的轉換以及 3D 容量的簡單擴展。所以，我覺得——但願如此——分析師會議上提出的分析結果在未來幾年內都是不錯的，但我相信一年後如果我說了不同的話，你們肯定會問的。

I just want to make it clear, I did not criticize your analytics. (Laughter).

我只想澄清一點，我並沒有批評你的分析。（笑聲）。

It is okay, Patrick.

沒關係，派崔克。

A follow up question for you, Doug. In terms of the services businesses, you talked about the growth aspects, both on this call, as well as the analyst day. Can you give some, I guess, tangible areas where you have improved the profitability? Is it what you are offering, is it just internal cost reductions, what has made services a more profitable business for you guys?

道格，我還有一個後續問題想問你。關於服務業務，您在本次電話會議和分析師日上都談到了成長方面的問題。您能否舉例說明一下，在哪些方面提高了獲利能力？是你們提供的服務本身，還是只是內部成本削減，是什麼讓服務業成為你們更賺錢的業務？

I do not know if it is necessarily more profitable year-on-year, Patrick. It has always been quite profitable. It is a great business, right, all the investment occurs in new equipment, it gets leveraged in installed base, it does not require a whole lot of investment. It is just a very profitable part of the business; but on a year-on-year basis, I do not think it is really more profitable, necessarily.

派崔克，我不知道它是否一定比去年更有獲利。它一直以來都相當有利可圖。這是一個很棒的生意，對吧？所有的投資都用於新設備，並透過已安裝的設備來擴大規模，不需要大量的投資。這只是公司裡利潤非常高的部分業務；但從年際比較來看，我認為它的利潤未必真的更高。

I think there is a kind of macro trend -- that is very important to us, as we think about the strategy for this business. And the macro trend is -- a trend for us, at least, of targeting by investment the most valuable products and services for the customer. So there are two types of businesses you can have in the installed base space, you can sell spare parts and maintain equipment at one extreme. At another extreme, you can be all of that, and also a provider of advanced services around installed base optimization, for example. Or taking productivity improvements that you have embedded in latest generation leading edge equipment, and putting them back into a 28nm space, for example. Advanced services and value creating products and services is our focus, and if we are successful, developing that capability -- if we are successful in having it competitive, over time, I think, there is a trend to higher profit opportunities. So that would be a -- maybe another characterization for you.

我認為存在一種宏觀趨勢——這對我們來說非常重要，因為我們正在考慮這項業務的策略。宏觀趨勢－至少對我們來說，就是透過投資來瞄準對客戶最有價值的產品和服務。因此，在設備安裝領域，你可以經營兩種類型的業務，一種是銷售備件，另一種是維護設備。在另一個極端，你可以做到以上所有，還可以成為提供諸如安裝基礎優化等高級服務的供應商。例如，將最新一代尖端設備中蘊含的生產力改進措施，重新應用到 28nm 製程。我們專注於先進的服務和創造價值的產品和服務，如果我們成功發展了這種能力——如果我們成功地使其具有競爭力，隨著時間的推移，我認為，這將帶來更高的利潤機會。所以，這或許可以算是──另一種對你而言的描述。

Thanks, Patrick.

謝謝你，派崔克。

Amit Daryanani, RBC Capital Markets.

Amit Daryanani，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

Hi, thanks for taking my question. It sounds like generally, you guys expect first half strength in WFE and shipments, do you see any sub segments of pockets of strength manifesting in the second half of 2017, or do you think it declines across all sub segments?

您好，感謝您回答我的問題。聽起來你們普遍預期上半年 WFE 和出貨量會保持強勁，你們認為 2017 年下半年哪些細分市場會表現強勁，還是所有細分市場都會下滑？

We do not see decline across all segments. There is a -- maybe I can go back to my earlier statement. It is only January, so we have a tremendous amount of adds and subtracts ahead of us by virtue of push and pull, and changes in the investment strategies of our customers. So please recognize that we are giving you the best we can, but I guarantee it will change. The best we can say today, relative to first half and second half is exactly what I noted earlier. We do not expect a more balanced shipments and WFE year than 55-45. And as I added as a supplement, the concentration to the first half, shipments and WFE for NAND, we believe, is above that average. Now, everything I just said could change, but that is the best we have for you today, in terms of first half and second half balance.

我們並未看到所有領域都出現下滑。或許我可以回到我之前的說法。現在才一月份，由於市場推拉以及客戶投資策略的變化，我們還有很多增減交易要做。所以請理解，我們正在盡我們所能為您提供最好的服務，但我保證情況會改變。今天，就上半場和下半場而言，我們所能說的最好結果，正如我之前提到的那樣。我們預計今年的出貨量和WFE不會比55-45更平衡。正如我補充所說，我們認為，上半年 NAND 的出貨量和 WFE 的集中度高於平均值。現在，我剛才說的一切都可能改變，但就上半年和下半年的收支平衡而言，這是我們今天能為您提供的最佳資訊。

The second thing that I tried to provide some context to for analytical purposes, was a reference to revenues. And what I wanted to do there was to make sure that everybody interpreted the long-term stated financial models as we had intended. And so there was a long-term model that referenced revenues, not shipments, referenced revenues in the 2017 and 2018 calendar year timeframe. With an assumption of $35 billion of the WFE, with revenue $7.25 billion to $8 billion. And what I said today is we had intended that with that information, you would derive approximately an $8 billion revenue reference to the assumptions of SAM concentration and WFE, and share that we have accumulated -- that we have communicated in the last several months, including this earnings call.

為了便於分析，我試圖提供一些背景資訊的第二件事是收入。我當時想做的，是確保每個人都能以我們預想的方式解讀長期財務模型。因此，出現了一個以收入而非出貨量為參考的長期模型，該模型以 2017 年和 2018 年日曆年度的收入為參考。假設 WFE 的規模為 350 億美元，營收為 72.5 億美元至 80 億美元。我今天所說的是，我們原本打算利用這些信息，根據 SAM 集中度和 WFE 的假設，以及我們在過去幾個月（包括本次財報電話會議）中積累的份額，得出大約 80 億美元的收入參考值。

Thank you so much. And as a follow-up, when China begins to ramp in the 2018, 2019 timeframe, what percent of revenue do you think you could see China achieving? Is it something like 20%, 30%, and how long what that could that sustain for?

太感謝了。作為後續問題，當中國在 2018 年、2019 年期間開始加速發展時，您認為中國能夠實現多少百分比的收入？大概是20%、30%左右嗎？如果是，這種程度的降低能持續多久？

Wow. (laughter) I really do not know that I have a basis to answer the question. There are so many moving parts, there is clearly -- a very strong ambition for investments and they are kind of stated numbers, I think, available to us all. And whether those numbers are investment dollars, or those numbers are kind of wafer start references -- I think have read references to 300,000 to 400,000 wafer starts for NAND. I think I have read 100,000 wafer starts for DRAM. I mean, I have no idea how this will kind of play out, but we continue to engage in every region of the world with every customer in the world to support to the best of our abilities.

哇。（笑聲）我真的不知道我是否有資格回答這個問題。涉及的環節很多，顯然，投資方面有著非常強烈的雄心，而且我認為這些數字都是公開的，我們所有人都能看到。不管這些數字是投資額，還是晶圓開工量之類的參考資料——我記得看過一些關於 NAND 晶圓開工量為 30 萬到 40 萬的參考資料。我認為我已經讀到 10 萬片 DRAM 晶圓的開工數據。我的意思是，我不知道這件事最終會如何發展，但我們將繼續與世界各地每位客戶保持聯繫，盡我們所能為他們提供支援。

Mehdi Hosseini, SIG.

Mehdi Hosseini，SIG。

Good afternoon, guys. This is Bill Grinstead for Medhi. Just a quick question here on internal manufacturing capacity. Obviously, you guys now are looking for pretty strong shipments in the first half. What is your capacity, how high is your utilization, or do you guys think you will need to flex that up?

下午好，各位。這是比爾‧格林斯特德為梅迪所作的報導。我有個關於內部生產能力的問題想請教一下。顯然，你們現在希望上半年能有相當強勁的出貨量。你們的產能是多少？使用率有多高？或者你們認為需要提高產能嗎？

Well, we are constantly investing in flexing, and that is the nature of this industry. You know, less today from traditional cyclicality and disconnects on an industry level between supply and demand, more today because of the variability that any one customer can bring to us, as a supplier, to the semiconductor industry. We have no public disclosure for you on utilization or capacity, but I would reinforce the point that I made a little earlier. We are focused on proactively investing in the business of our Company, and that means proactively investing in technology and also operational capabilities from manufacturing and supply chain and service to execute and support the success of our customers. And we did a lot of that already, right, we have invested in creating the potential to increase the output of this Company by 40% in a really short period of time. Our average shipments in calendar 2016 were $1.6 billion, I think -- and maybe $1.6 billion to $1.7 billion, and we just gave guidance materially in excess of that. The investment is proactive, and we are obviously focused on the flexibility of our business model as much as ever.

我們一直在投資提升靈活性，而這正是這個產業的本質。你知道，如今半導體產業的波動不再主要源自於傳統的週期性波動和供需脫節，而是更源自於任何一個客戶都可能為我們（作為半導體產業的供應商）帶來的波動性。我們沒有關於利用率或產能的公開資訊可以向您揭露，但我還是要重申我之前提到的觀點。我們專注於積極投資公司業務，這意味著積極投資於技術以及從製造、供應鏈到服務的營運能力，以執行和支援客戶的成功。我們已經做了很多這方面的工作，對吧？我們已經投入資金，力爭在很短的時間內將公司的產量提高 40%。我認為，我們 2016 年的平均出貨量為 16 億美元，或許在 16 億至 17 億美元之間，而我們給出的預期遠超這個數字。這項投資是積極主動的，而且我們顯然一如既往地註重我們商業模式的靈活性。

Okay, Operator. That is going to be our last question.

好的，接線生。這將是我們最後一個問題。

Feel free to conclude the call. Thank you.

您可以結束通話了。謝謝。

This does conclude today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may disconnect your line at any time and have a wonderful day.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您可以隨時斷開線路，祝您有美好的一天。