科林研發 (LRCX) 2016 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Lam Research Corporation March 2016 earnings conference call. At this time I would like to turn the conference over to Satya Kumar, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

大家好，歡迎參加 Lam Research Corporation 2016 年 3 月的收益電話會議。此時，我謹將會議交給投資人關係副總裁薩蒂亞‧庫馬爾先生。請繼續。

Yes, thank you. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Lam Research quarterly conference call. With me today are Martin Anstice, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Doug Bettinger, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

是的，謝謝。各位下午好，歡迎參加 Lam Research 季度電話會議。今天陪同我的是總裁兼執行長馬丁·安斯蒂斯，以及執行副總裁兼財務長道格·貝廷格。

During today's call we'll share our outlook on the business environment, review our financial results for the March 2016 quarter, our outlook for the June 2016 quarter, and provide an update on our planned business combination with KLA-Tencor. The press release detailing our financial results was distributed a little after 1 PM Pacific time this afternoon. It can also be found on the investor relations section of the Company's website, along with the presentation slides that accompany today's call.

在今天的電話會議上，我們將分享我們對商業環境的展望，回顧我們 2016 年 3 月季度的財務業績，展望 2016 年 6 月季度，並提供有關我們與 KLA-Tencor 計劃進行的業務合併的最新資訊。詳細介紹我們財務表現的新聞稿已於今天下午太平洋時間下午 1 點剛過發布。也可以在公司網站的投資者關係部分找到，以及今天電話會議的簡報。

Today's presentation and Q&A will include statements about our expectations and beliefs regarding certain future events. All statements made that are not historical facts are forward-looking statements based on the current information and are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially. These forward-looking statements include the timing for the closure of the proposed business combination with KLA-Tencor, the benefits to be realized from that transaction, the anticipated structure of future combined operations, and our guidance on revenues, shipments, costs, margins, share count and earnings.

今天的演講和問答環節將包括我們對未來某些事件的預期和看法。所有非歷史事實的陳述均為基於當前資訊的預測性陳述，並受風險和不確定性的影響，這些風險和不確定性可能導致實際結果與預測結果有重大差異。這些前瞻性聲明包括與 KLA-Tencor 擬議業務合併的完成時間、該交易將實現的收益、未來合併運營的預期結構，以及我們對收入、出貨量、成本、利潤率、股份數量和收益的指導。

Other forward-looking topics that we expect to cover are included in the slide deck accompanying our remarks. We encourage you to review the risk factors disclosure in our public filings with the SEC including our 10Ks and 10Qs. The Company undertakes no obligation to update forward-looking statements.

我們預計在發言稿中涵蓋的其他前瞻性議題。我們建議您查看我們在向美國證券交易委員會提交的公開文件中揭露的風險因素，包括我們的 10-K 和 10-Q 表格。本公司不承擔更新前瞻性聲明的義務。

Today's discussion of our financial results will be presented on a non-GAAP financial basis, unless otherwise specified. A detailed reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP results can be found in today's earnings press release.

除非另有說明，我們今天對財務表現的討論將以非公認會計準則（non-GAAP）為基礎。今天的盈利新聞稿中提供了 GAAP 和非 GAAP 結果之間的詳細調整表。

This call is scheduled to last until 3 PM Pacific time.

本次通話預計將持續到太平洋時間下午3點。

(Caller Instructions)

（來電者指示）

As a reminder, the replay of this call will be available later this afternoon on our website. With that, I'll hand the call over to Martin.

再次提醒大家，本次電話會議的錄音將於今天下午稍晚在我們的網站上提供。這樣，我就把電話交給馬丁了。

Thank you, Satya, and thank you all for joining us today for our quarterly earnings conference call. This afternoon I will share highlights from the March quarter, provide some perspective on how we're performing relative to our growth objectives, and share commentary on the industry environment so far this year. Prior to turning the call over to Doug, I will conclude my prepared remarks with a status update on our planned business combination with KLA-Tencor.

謝謝薩蒂亞，也謝謝各位今天參加我們的季度財報電話會議。今天下午我將分享三月季度的亮點，從我們實現成長目標的角度談談我們的表現，並對今年迄今為止的行業環境發表一些評論。在將電話轉交給 Doug 之前，我將以關於我們與 KLA-Tencor 計劃的業務合併的最新進展來結束我的準備好的發言。

Lam Research is off to a very solid beginning in 2016, with our March quarter results providing evidence of continued strong execution against our longer-term outperformance ambition. 2016 is a year where, connected with the device architecture and process flow decisions of our customers, also with our decisions several years back to invest for the long term in enabling key technology inflections, we actively compete for more than 30% of WFE.

Lam Research 在 2016 年開局非常穩健，我們 3 月份的季度業績證明，我們持續強勁地實現了長期超額收益的目標。2016 年，由於客戶的設備架構和製程流程決策，以及我們幾年前為實現關鍵技術變革而進行的長期投資決策，我們積極參與了 WFE 30% 以上的市場份額的競爭。

In the quarter just ended, we delivered revenues and shipments above the midpoint of our guidance; and gross margin, operating income and non-GAAP EPS that were all above the high end of our guidance range. We demonstrated business model flexibility by managing core operating expenses to a level last reported a year ago, while growing investments in R&D over the same period.

在剛結束的季度中，我們的營收和出貨量均高於預期中位數；毛利率、營業收入和非GAAP每股盈餘均高於預期範圍的上限。我們透過將核心營運費用控制在一年前報告的水平，同時在同一時期增加了研發投入，展現了商業模式的靈活性。

Importantly, the results this quarter reflect a healthy balance of leadership focus on both our short term and long term. Most important, of course, is our long-term commitment to the success of our customers. Overall, our performance is a testament to the high-quality focus, the teamwork and execution of Lam employees throughout the Company. And for that, I would like to thank them all sincerely.

重要的是，本季業績反映出領導層在短期和長期發展之間保持著健康的平衡。當然，最重要的是我們對客戶成功的長期承諾。整體而言，我們的業績證明了林氏公司全體員工對高品質的專注、團隊合作和執行力。為此，我衷心感謝他們所有人。

As we evaluate the performance of Lam currently and develop strategies to support our vision for the combined Company, we are driven by the opportunity for compelling value creation. Standalone and combined with KLA-Tencor, we model robust and predictable cash generation supplemented by growth outperformance and over time, more opportunities for investing in profitable growth and returning excess cash to shareholders.

在評估 Lam 目前的表現並製定支持我們對合併後公司願景的策略時，我們受到創造巨大價值的機會的驅動。無論是獨立營運還是與 KLA-Tencor 合併運營，我們都建立了穩健且可預測的現金流模型，並輔以超額增長業績，隨著時間的推移，為投資盈利增長和向股東返還多餘現金提供了更多機會。

The growth thesis for Lam over the next several years is rooted in our strategy to partner closely with our customers to enable key technology inflections, such as 3D device architecture and multi-patterning process flows and is validated by our performance in the last several years. As our results reveal, this strategy is working and is enabling the increased strategic relevance of Lam Research in our industry.

Lam 未來幾年的成長理論是基於我們與客戶緊密合作的策略，以實現關鍵的技術變革，例如 3D 裝置架構和多重圖案化流程，而過去幾年的業績也驗證了這項策略。我們的研究結果表明，這項策略行之有效，並提高了 Lam Research 在我們行業中的策略相關性。

Calendar 2016 is a year where industry spending trends are increasingly biased to disciplined and strategic investments across most device segments, which lends further support to our conviction in a multi-year Company outperformance opportunity. This spending bias, we contend also, is a driver for continued healthy WFE spending levels for the foreseeable future, despite somewhat tepid macro conditions.

2016 年，各產業支出趨勢越來越傾向於在大多數設備領域進行有紀律和策略性的投資，這進一步支持了我們對公司未來多年業績優異機會的信念。我們認為，這種消費偏好也是在可預見的未來，儘管宏觀經濟狀況有些疲軟，但女性員工支出水準仍將維持健康水準的驅動力。

Now looking at our progress across the inflections, first with 3D NAND, we see increasing adoption rates of this technology, strong traction for our products and service offerings, and growing clarity around next-generation device industry roadmaps. First-generation 3D NAND production involves etching through 30 or more stacked pairs of films. These are growing to 60 or more pairs for next-generation devices, resulting in increased challenges for critical high-aspect ratio dielectric etch and also staircase conductor etch.

現在，讓我們回顧一下我們在各個轉折點上取得的進展，首先是 3D NAND，我們看到這項技術的採用率不斷提高，我們的產品和服務獲得了強勁的市場反響，並且下一代設備行業的路線圖也越來越清晰。第一代 3D NAND 生產流程涉及蝕刻穿過 30 層或更多層堆疊的薄膜。對於下一代元件，這些對數將增加到 60 對或更多，從而對關鍵的高縱橫比介質蝕刻和階梯導體蝕刻提出了更高的挑戰。

Our Flex F and G series dielectric products featuring proprietary ion energy control and high selectivity have tripled their installed base in the last year and established Lam as the market leader in dielectric etch segment. Our Kiyo conductor etch platform with industry-leading etch selectivity has enabled more than a 2 times improvement in the number of layers that can be etched in situ for staircase applications, with the result that a majority of 3D NAND customers have now included Lam in their staircase etch HVM purchases. Our Vector ALD platform offers differentiated processing capability, allowing expansion of our SAM from multi-patterning, to now include 3D NAND gap fill applications also.

我們的 Flex F 和 G 系列介電產品採用專有的離子能量控制和高選擇性技術，在過去一年中裝機量成長了兩倍，使 Lam 成為介電蝕刻領域的市場領導者。我們採用業界領先的蝕刻選擇性的 Kiyo 導體蝕刻平台，使階梯應用的原位蝕刻層數提高了 2 倍以上，因此，大多數 3D NAND 客戶現在都將 Lam 納入了他們的階梯刻蝕 HVM 採購中。我們的向量 ALD 平台提供差異化的加工能力，使我們的 SAM 從多重圖案化擴展到現在的 3D NAND 間隙填充應用。

Turning to FinFETs and multi-patterning, during the quarter we continued to build on the momentum of our differentiated Kiyo with Hydra conductor etch and Flex dielectric etch platforms for critical front-end of line FinFET transistor solutions for 10 nanometer and 7 nanometer technology nodes.

轉向 FinFET 和多重圖案化，本季度我們繼續鞏固了我們差異化的 Kiyo 與 Hydra 導體蝕刻和 Flex 介質蝕刻平台的勢頭，為 10 奈米和 7 奈米技術節點的關鍵前端 FinFET 晶體管解決方案提供支援。

As we communicated at the recent SPIE lithography conference, atomic level processing to control variability is increasingly critical for multi-patterning and that need will persist in an EUV-enabled environment. Our customers at the conference continued to affirm their strategy of leveraging improvements in both EUV and multi-patterning to address their needs, and together with our peer group, we have conviction that deposition and etch multi-patterning applications will grow for many years to come.

正如我們在最近的 SPIE 光刻會議上所交流的那樣，原子級加工以控制變異性對於多重圖案化越來越重要，而且這種需求在 EUV 環境下仍將持續存在。在本次大會上，我們的客戶繼續重申了他們利用 EUV 和多重曝光技術的改進來滿足自身需求的策略，我們與同行們一致認為，沉積和蝕刻多重曝光應用將在未來許多年裡持續增長。

Fundamental to enabling our share gains has been the performance of our 35,000-plus process module installed base, and in calendar 2015, a 10-point improvement in our customer satisfaction indexes. On this last point, it was extremely satisfying that our logic segment capabilities and partnership have progressed to a point where we were one of very few companies recognized recently as Preferred Quality Supplier to Intel.

我們市佔率的成長，主要得益於我們超過 35,000 個已安裝流程模組的良好表現，以及 2015 年客戶滿意度指數提升 10 個百分點。關於最後一點，我們邏輯部門的能力和合作關係已經發展到如此程度，以至於我們成為近期極少數被英特爾認可為首選品質供應商的公司之一，這讓我們感到非常滿意。

The focus we explained at SEMICON West 2015, of developing new value-add products and services is intended to provide our customers productivity, utilization, and reuse benefits in addition to creating new SAM growth opportunities across leading edge and mature technology nodes for our Company.

我們在 2015 年 SEMICON West 展會上闡述的重點是開發新的增值產品和服務，旨在為我們的客戶提供生產力、利用率和再利用方面的好處，同時為我們公司在前沿和成熟的技術節點上創造新的 SAM 成長機會。

As planned, over a multi-year period we are on schedule for our installed base business revenues to outgrow materially our installed base units expansion. In calendar 2016, our emphasis includes implementing systemic improvements in customer satisfaction, increasing our spares market share with new products differentiated by Lam-specific OEM knowledge and learning, and building upon the early adoption successes of new installed base advanced services and productivity solutions achieved last year.

按照計劃，在未來幾年內，我們的已安裝基礎業務收入將按計劃大幅超過已安裝基礎單元的擴張。2016 年，我們的重點包括：系統性地提高客戶滿意度；透過 Lam 特有的 OEM 知識和經驗，推出差異化的新產品，提高備件市場份額；以及鞏固去年新安裝基礎先進服務和生產力解決方案的早期採用成功經驗。

Now I would like to provide a brief update on demand and WFE trends. Expectations of the experts, for global economic growth have been revised slightly lower since our last report. End market demand trends for technology products remain mixed, with additional weaknesses in the PC market and relatively stable, although lower than expected, growth rates in mobile.

現在我想簡單介紹一下需求和WFE趨勢。自我們上次報告以來，專家們對全球經濟成長的預期已略有下調。科技產品的終端市場需求趨勢仍喜憂參半，PC 市場進一步疲軟，而行動裝置市場雖然成長率低於預期，但相對穩定。

Meanwhile we continue to expect solid demand for leading edge silicon in the enterprise market driven by the long-term move to the cloud: storage and computation applications both. More importantly perhaps, we believe that Lam and the equipment industry broadly have an opportunity and responsibility to innovate for and with our customers to create a catalyst for the higher levels of IC unit demand. Certainly that is our conviction and thinking, both as a standalone process Company and combined with KLA-Tencor.

同時，我們預期企業市場對尖端矽晶片的需求將保持強勁，這主要得益於向雲端遷移的長期趨勢，包括儲存和運算應用。更重要的是，我們認為 Lam 和整個設備產業有機會和責任與我們的客戶一起進行創新，從而為提高 IC 單元的需求水準創造催化劑。當然，無論作為一家獨立的工藝公司，還是與 KLA-Tencor 合併，這都是我們的信念和想法。

Our outlook for the memory market continues to reflect the offsetting factors of strong 3D NAND spending and meaningful declines in DRAM spending driven largely by PC weakness year over year. The latter has resulted in now well-publicized and rational response from our DRAM customers, which should continue to help improve the IC unit supply/demand balance. We expect DRAM capacity to remain essentially flat to slightly down this year.

我們對記憶體市場的展望繼續反映出 3D NAND 支出強勁和 DRAM 支出大幅下降（主要原因是 PC 銷量同比疲軟）這兩種相互抵消的因素。後者已促使我們的 DRAM 客戶做出了公開且合理的反應，這應該會繼續有助於改善 IC 單元的供需平衡。我們預計今年DRAM產能將基本維持不變或略有下降。

DRAM WFE we estimate to represent mid to high $5 billion spending this year, focused almost exclusively on 20 nanometer and 1X nanometer upgrade investments to improve cost competitiveness and device performance. We expect nonvolatile memory industry WFE to exceed $9 billion in 2016 with every industry participant committed to the 3D roadmap.

我們估計今年 DRAM WFE 的支出將達到 50 億美元中高水平，幾乎全部集中在 20 奈米和 1X 奈米升級投資上，以提高成本競爭力和裝置性能。我們預計，2016 年非揮發性記憶體產業 WFE 的規模將超過 90 億美元，因為每個產業參與者都致力於 3D 路線圖。

Spending patterns and the strategic actions by our customers in 2016 offer the clearest evidence yet that 3D NAND and new nonvolatile memories are evolving to have a transformational influence on the compute and storage industry as device and system architectures evolve for consumer and enterprise cloud applications. 3D NAND, in particular, has an integration scheme that is heavily biased towards deposition and etch, a statement that is increasingly true as the customers transition from building greenfield 3D fabs to conversions from 2D to 3D, and eventually from first-generation 3D through subsequent vertical scaling.

2016 年客戶的支出模式和策略行動提供了迄今為止最清晰的證據，表明隨著設備和系統架構為消費者和企業雲端應用而發展，3D NAND 和新型非揮發性記憶體正在發展並對運算和儲存產業產生變革性影響。特別是 3D NAND，其整合方案嚴重偏向沉積和蝕刻，隨著客戶從新建 3D 晶圓廠過渡到從 2D 過渡到 3D，並最終從第一代 3D 通過後續的垂直擴展，這一說法越來越正確。

We assess that the equipment industry remains on track to ship a cumulative 350,000 to 400,000 wafer starts per month of 3D NAND capacity by the end of 2016, which includes around two-thirds by year end production qualified. The headline for Lam is that with just under one-quarter of global capacity 3D NAND capable by the end of this year, we are in the very early stages of a multi-year growth opportunity.

我們評估認為，到 2016 年底，設備產業仍有望實現每月累積出貨 35 萬至 40 萬片 3D NAND 晶圓，其中到年底將有大約三分之二的晶圓獲得生產資格。Lam 認為，到今年年底，全球 3D NAND 快閃產能將接近四分之一，我們正處於多年成長機會的初期階段。

There is much for us to be excited about.

有很多事情讓我們感到興奮。

We continue to expect flat to slightly better WFE in foundry and logic, where the majority of the spending is focused on strategic investments to enable 10-nanometer technology, although as stated previously IoT applications, automotive, wearables and low-end phones, et cetera are driving a healthy resurgence of 28-nanometer capital expenditure. Doug will provide more details in our financial guidance, but our shipments outlook in a flattish WFE environment is consistent with our ongoing outperformance commentary and prior long-term models.

我們繼續預期晶圓代工和邏輯電路的 WFE 將保持平穩或略有改善，其中大部分支出集中在戰略投資上，以實現 10 奈米技術，儘管如前所述，物聯網應用、汽車、可穿戴設備和低端手機等正在推動 28 奈米資本支出的健康復甦。Doug 將在財務指導中提供更多細節，但在 WFE 市場趨於平穩的環境下，我們的出貨量展望與我們持續的業績超預期以及先前的長期模型相一致。

We ended the quarter with our strongest backlog and deferred revenue balance combined in the recent history of Lam. And we expect stronger shipments in June with sequential growth of approximately 9%. We retain our 2016 WFE outlook of $33 billion, plus or minus $2 billion. And from a momentum perspective, guide the first half 2016 shipments stronger than our second half 2015, and although slightly muted perhaps from our more conservative DRAM outlook today and some first-half/second-half rebalancing, we are still encouraged by the potential for slightly stronger shipments second half 2016 over our first half 2016.

本季末，Lam 的積壓訂單和遞延收入餘額總和達到了公司近期歷史上的最高水準。我們預計 6 月出貨量將更加強勁，季增約 9%。我們維持對 2016 年世界經濟展望為 330 億美元，上下浮動 20 億美元。從發展動能來看，我們預計 2016 年上半年的出貨量將強於 2015 年下半年。儘管由於我們今天對 DRAM 的預測較為保守，並且上半年/下半年的市場調整，這一預期可能略有放緩，但我們仍然對 2016 年下半年的出貨量略高於上半年的預期感到鼓舞。

Now I will conclude with some comments on the planned combination of Lam Research with KLA-Tencor. As a reminder, with continued execution and our priority on being number one in customer trust, we have the confidence that standalone Lam Research has a continuing growth outperformance opportunity over the next several years.

最後，我將就 Lam Research 與 KLA-Tencor 的合併計劃發表一些評論。再次提醒大家，只要我們繼續執行各項措施，並優先考慮成為客戶信任度第一，我們有信心，獨立運營的 Lam Research 在未來幾年內將有持續增長並取得優異業績的機會。

We have elected to use this recent period of strength and an exciting outlook to pursue an even more strategic agenda to innovate beyond what is possible in two great companies separately for the benefit of all stakeholders. We invested a number of years developing the strategy with our customers, and believe with all subsequent interactions they are materially invested in the success of our vision. They trust our genuine commitment to the broad ecosystem, and they are increasingly motivated by the opportunity for new joint development projects together.

我們選擇利用近期的強勁勢頭和令人振奮的前景，制定更具戰略意義的計劃，以超越兩家偉大公司各自獨立發展所能達到的創新能力，造福所有利益相關者。我們投入數年時間與客戶共同製定策略，並且相信在隨後的所有互動中，他們都對我們願景的成功投入了實質的精力。他們相信我們對整個生態系統的真誠承諾，並且越來越受到共同開展新的聯合開發項目的激勵。

As we move through the early stages of integration planning, our conviction in the business combination and the opportunities it will drive for the customer and combined Company is only getting stronger. The integration planning team has been focused on understanding the organizational design and business processes of the two companies in order to ensure a seamless transition for our customers, suppliers and employees.

隨著我們進入整合規劃的早期階段，我們對此次業務合併及其將為客戶和合併後的公司帶來的機會的信心只會越來越強。整合規劃團隊一直致力於了解兩家公司的組織結構和業務流程，以確保我們的客戶、供應商和員工能夠順利過渡。

We have announced internally and introduced to our customers a very strong global leadership team with balanced representation from both companies. Although we remain two separate companies until the date of deal closing, and until that time our most fundamental responsibility is to deliver on pre-existing commitments made to our customers, comprehensive integration activities have reinforced our confidence in achieving both the stated cost and revenue synergies.

我們已在內部宣布並向客戶介紹了由兩家公司均衡代表組成的實力雄厚的全球領導團隊。儘管在交易完成之前，我們仍是兩家獨立的公司，在此之前，我們最根本的責任是履行對客戶做出的既有承諾，但全面的整合活動增強了我們實現既定成本和收入協同效應的信心。

In recent weeks, we received approval from both KT and Lam stockholders and have received regulatory approvals in Israel, Taiwan and Ireland. We are actively engaged with all other required agencies, and remain confident that we will close the transaction sometime around mid-year. Our best estimate is June/July, plus or minus a couple of months.

最近幾週，我們獲得了 KT 和 Lam 股東的批准，並獲得了以色列、台灣和愛爾蘭的監管部門的批准。我們正在積極與所有其他相關機構接洽，並仍有信心在年中前後完成交易。我們估計最快也要到六、七月份，前後可能差幾個月。

With that, let me turn the call over to Doug who will provide an update on the March quarter and our guidance for June.

接下來，我將把電話交給道格，他將介紹三月季度的最新情況以及我們對六月的展望。

Okay, great. Thank you, Martin. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today on what I know was a busy earnings day.

好的，太好了。謝謝你，馬丁。各位下午好，感謝大家今天參加我們的節目，我知道今天對大家來說都是忙碌的財報日。

We are pleased with the momentum to be starting the year with. Our results for the March quarter came in above the midpoint of guidance for all metrics. Shipments for the quarter were $1.446 billion, which was up 12% sequentially and above the midpoint of the guided range.

我們對今年開局的良好勢頭感到滿意。我們三月季度的業績在所有指標上都高於預期中位數。本季出貨量為 14.46 億美元，季增 12%，高於預期範圍的中點。

Memory shipments were strong in the quarter, with the combined memory segment making up 70% of total system level shipments, and that compares with 65% in the prior quarter. Memory shipments were weighted heavily toward the nonvolatile segment, which represented 43% of shipments in the March quarter. This was up from 23% in the prior quarter driven by ongoing customer investments in 3D NAND wafer capacity, as well as increasing layer counts.

本季記憶體出貨量強勁，記憶體部分佔系統級總出貨量的 70%，而上一季這一比例為 65%。記憶體出貨量主要集中在非揮發性記憶體領域，3 月季度非揮發性記憶體佔出貨量的 43%。這一比例較上一季的 23% 上升，主要原因是客戶持續投資 3D NAND 晶圓產能，以及層數增加。

We continue to see 3D NAND spending focused on both new wafers as well as technology conversions. DRAM made up 27% of the shipments, which was down from 42% in the December quarter. We're seeing continued disciplined spending in the DRAM segment with a focus on 20-nanometer technology conversions to both reduce cost per bit and to enable improved performance.

我們持續看到 3D NAND 的支出集中在新晶圓和技術轉換兩方面。DRAM 的出貨量佔比為 27%，低於 12 月季度的 42%。我們看到 DRAM 領域持續保持審慎的支出，重點是 20 奈米技術轉換，以降低每位元成本並提高效能。

The foundry segment was up slightly in dollar terms in the March quarter, accounting for 23% of system shipments. Foundry spending is focused on both leading edge 10-nanometer investments as well as continued spending at 28-nanometer and above. The logic and other segment contributed 7% percent of system shipments.

3 月季度，晶圓代工業務的美元收入略有成長，佔系統出貨量的 23%。晶圓代工支出主要集中在尖端的 10 奈米技術投資以及 28 奈米以上技術的持續投入。邏輯和其他部分佔系統出貨量的 7%。

Shipments into the China region were particularly strong in March, representing 27% of total shipments. The majority of spending in China continues to be spent by global multinational customers putting capacity in place within the country.

3月對華出口量尤其強勁，佔總出口量的27%。在中國的大部分支出仍來自全球跨國客戶，他們在中國境內建立產能。

Revenue came in at $1.314 billion in the March quarter, which was down roughly 8% from the December quarter. This revenue result was consistent with our expectations for the quarter. Gross margin for the period came in at 45.1%, somewhat stronger than we expected. Better field and factory utilization and favorable product mix benefited gross margin in the quarter.

3 月季度營收為 13.14 億美元，比 12 月季度下降了約 8%。這一季度的營收結果符合我們的預期。本期毛利率為 45.1%，略高於我們的預期。本季度，更高的現場和工廠利用率以及有利的產品組合提高了毛利率。

And as I've shared with you before, our gross margins are a function of a number of factors such as overall business volumes, product mix and customer concentration. And you should expect to see some variability quarter to quarter. I'd like to remind you that our financial model is still the best way to think about our ongoing performance.

正如我之前與你們分享過的，我們的毛利率取決於許多因素，例如整體業務量、產品組合和客戶集中度。你應該預料到每個季度之間會有一些波動。我想提醒各位，我們的財務模型仍然是衡量我們持續績效的最佳方式。

Operating expenses in the quarter were roughly flat at $350 million, and this compares to $352 million in the December quarter. The majority of our spending continues to be allocated to funding our critical R&D programs. These investments are important in preparing for the current and next-generation technology inflections, enabling us to take full advantage of the opportunities ahead of us.

本季營運支出基本持平，為 3.5 億美元，而 12 月的季度為 3.52 億美元。我們的大部分支出仍然用於資助我們關鍵的研發項目。這些投資對於應對當前和下一代技術變革至關重要，使我們能夠充分利用未來的機會。

Operating income in the March quarter came in at $242 million, and that compares to $296 million in the prior quarter. Operating margin was 18.4%, above the high end of the guided range due to both the higher revenue as well as the stronger gross margin.

3 月季度的營業收入為 2.42 億美元，而上一季為 2.96 億美元。由於收入增加以及毛利率提高，營業利潤率為 18.4%，高於預期範圍的上限。

The tax rate for the quarter was 14%, and that compares with 7% last quarter. That, by the way, was about what we expected. A tax rate in the low to mid-teens for the remainder of 2016 would be reasonable for you to use in your earnings models.

本季稅率為14%，而上一季為7%。順便說一句，這和我們預期的差不多。對於您的收入模型而言，2016 年剩餘時間的稅率在十幾到二十幾的範圍內是合理的。

Based on a share count of approximately 172 million shares, earnings per share for the March quarter were $1.18, above the guidance range. This share count includes dilution on a non-GAAP basis from both the 2016 and 2041 convertible notes, with a total dilutive impact of about 11 million shares. Dilution schedules for the 2016, 2018 and 2041 convertible notes are available on our investor relations website for your reference.

根據約 1.72 億股的股數計算，3 月季度的每股盈餘為 1.18 美元，高於預期範圍。該股份數量包括 2016 年和 2041 年可轉換票據的非 GAAP 稀釋，總稀釋影響約 1,100 萬股。2016 年、2018 年和 2041 年可轉換債券的稀釋時間表已發佈在我們的投資者關係網站上，供您參考。

We returned $48 million in dividend distributions to our shareholders. This equated to $0.30 on a per-share basis. We did not repurchase any shares in the open market in the March quarter, consistent with our stated plans ahead of closing the proposed KLA-Tencor transaction.

我們向股東返還了 4800 萬美元的股息。這相當於每股0.30美元。在 3 月的季度中，我們沒有在公開市場上回購任何股票，這與我們先前宣布的完成擬議的 KLA-Tencor 交易的計劃一致。

So now let me turn to the balance sheet. We continue to have a healthy cash position. Cash and short-term investments, including restricted cash, increased to $4.8 billion at the end of the quarter. Cash from operations was $183 million, and that compares to $295 million in December.

現在讓我來看看資產負債表。我們目前現金流狀況良好。截至季末，現金及短期投資（包括受限現金）增至 48 億美元。經營活動產生的現金流量為 1.83 億美元，而 12 月為 2.95 億美元。

The March shipment profile was biased toward the back end of the quarter, resulting in an increase in both accounts receivable and days sales outstanding quarter over quarter. DSO increased to 86 days in March. I expect this will reduce in the June quarter, as linearity is less back-end weighted.

3 月的出貨量偏向季末，導致應收帳款和應收帳款週轉天數較上季增加。3月應收帳款週轉天數增加至86天。我預計這種情況會在六月的季度有所改善，因為線性度對後端的依賴性降低。

The quality of our receivable balance continues to be very strong. We've got a blue-chip set of customers. Inventory turns declined to 3.2 times due to the inventory build for the growth in the June quarter. Days payable outstanding extended to 46 days as a result of the timing of purchases within the quarter.

我們的應收帳款餘額品質依然非常強勁。我們擁有一批優質客戶。由於為因應六月季度的成長而增加庫存，庫存週轉率下降至 3.2 次。由於季度內採購時間安排的原因，應付帳款週轉天數延長至 46 天。

Cash generation was partially offset by dividends paid, as well as capital expenditures. We exited the quarter with deferred revenues of $511 million, which was up from $395 million in December. This amount excludes $121 million in shipments to customers in Japan, which will revenue in future quarters. These Japanese shipments remain on our balance sheet as inventory carried at cost.

現金流部分被支付的股利和資本支出所抵銷。本季末，我們的遞延營收為 5.11 億美元，高於 12 月的 3.95 億美元。該金額不包括向日本客戶發貨的 1.21 億美元，這部分收入將在未來幾季計入。這些日本貨物仍作為庫存以成本計入我們的資產負債表。

Company non-cash expenses for the quarter included $35 million for equity comp, $39 million for amortization and $35 million for depreciation. Capital expenditures were $46 million, which was up from $28 million in the December quarter. We ended the quarter with approximately 7,300 regular full-time employees, which was flat with December.

該季度公司非現金支出包括 3,500 萬美元的股權補償、3,900 萬美元的攤銷和 3,500 萬美元的折舊。資本支出為 4,600 萬美元，高於去年 12 月季度的 2,800 萬美元。本季末，我們約有 7300 名正式全職員工，與 12 月持平。

Looking ahead now, I'd like to provide our non-GAAP guidance for the June quarter. We expect shipments of $1.575 billion, plus or minus $75 million. We expect revenue of $1.525 billion, again plus or minus $75 million. We expect gross margin of 46%, plus or minus 1 percentage point.

展望未來，我想提供我們六月季度的非GAAP業績指引。我們預計出貨量為 15.75 億美元，上下浮動 7,500 萬美元。我們預計營收為 15.25 億美元，上下浮動 7,500 萬美元。我們預期毛利率為 46%，上下浮動 1 個百分點。

I do expect that the September quarter gross margin will be a little bit softer than in June due to customer concentration and product mix. We forecast operating margins of 22%, plus or minus 1 percentage point. And finally, we're forecasting earnings per share of $1.63, plus or minus $0.10, based on a share count of approximately 173 million shares.

我預計，由於客戶集中度和產品組合的變化，9 月季度的毛利率會比 6 月略低。我們預測營業利益率為 22%，上下浮動 1 個百分點。最後，我們根據約 1.73 億股的股票數量，預測每股收益為 1.63 美元，上下浮動 0.10 美元。

We're pleased with our performance this quarter and with the guidance we've just shared for the June quarter. We're delivering financial results coming from the strategic focus of the Company on creating differentiated product and service offerings that enable the success of our customers. As we sit here today, I continue to expect the second half of the year will have a stronger top line than the first half due to investments in leading edge foundry and logic.

我們對本季的業績以及剛發布的六月季度業績預期感到滿意。我們所取得的財務表現源自於公司策略重點在於創造差異化的產品和服務，進而幫助客戶成功。時至今日，我仍然預計下半年營收將比上半年表現更強勁，這得益於對尖端晶圓代工和邏輯電路的投資。

And just one last item I'd like to share with you. We will not be doing our normal Investor Day at SEMICON West this year. Our plans will be to something later in the year, likely in the month of November. We'll announce exact dates and venue later in the year as we finalize our plans.

最後還有一件事想跟大家分享。今年我們將不會在SEMICON West上舉辦平常的投資者日活動。我們的計劃是在今年晚些時候，可能是在11月份。我們將在今年稍後確定具體日期和地點後公佈。

That concludes my prepared remarks. Operator, Martin and I would now like to open up the call for questions.

我的發言稿到此結束。接線生馬丁和我現在想開始接受提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Amit Daryanani, RBC Capital Markets.

Amit Daryanani，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部。

Couple of questions from me. Could you just -- maybe I missed this. But the gross margin dynamic. Could you talk about what's driving the 90 basis points uptick sequentially in the June quarter, and how much of that is really leverage versus mix driven? And then what exactly is happening to the mix in September, I guess, that takes it down again, and could you quantify that number for us?

我有幾個問題。您能不能——或許我錯過了什麼。但毛利率動態變動。您能否談談是什麼因素推動了6月份季度環比增長90個基點，以及其中有多少是槓桿效應驅動的，又有多少是產品組合驅動的？那麼，9 月究竟發生了什麼，導致它再次下降？您能為我們量化一下這個數字嗎？

Yes. There's a lot of different things, Amit, that move gross margin around, which are overall business levels. You get product mix, you get a little bit of customer concentration sometimes that move it around. You've got a combination of all of those things occurring in the June quarter. And then it softens up a little bit in September, which is why I gave you a little bit of that color which I normally wouldn't do. I think it'll be a little bit lighter in September.

是的。阿米特，有很多不同的因素會影響毛利率，也就是整體業務水準。產品組合的變化，以及顧客集中度的變化，有時都會影響產品組合的調整。六月這一季度，上述所有因素都同時發生了。到了九月份，顏色會稍微變淡一些，所以我才給你用了一點那種顏色，這通常是我不會做的。我認為九月天氣會稍微好轉一些。

Got it. Is there a way to think about just the quantification of how much, is it 90 basis points that reverses back in September, or a much smaller number potentially?

知道了。有沒有辦法量化一下，9 月反彈的幅度是 90 個基點，還是可能小得多？

I'm not going to quantify it numerically, except just to tell you it's going to be a little bit softer.

我不會用數字來量化它，我只想告訴你它會稍微軟一點。

Got it. And could I just follow-up on the KLA transaction? Could you just talk about what are the regulatory requirements or any of the milestones that's left to be achieved? I know you mentioned some that are already done, but I'm curious what's left over here for the deal to close.

知道了。我可以跟進一下 KLA 的交易嗎？您能否談談監管要求或還有哪些里程碑需要實現？我知道你提到了一些已經完成的事情，但我很好奇這筆交易還需要做些什麼才能最終完成。

We don't have specific disclosure on the agencies that we are working with. We have more to do. We're kind of public with disclosure as and when certain kind of milestones are achieved. So you kind of have what you have. I think the important message is we're still confident of achieving approval for this transaction midyear. And I provided a little bit more color in prepared comments.

我們目前沒有關於合作機構的具體資訊揭露。我們還有更多的事情要做。我們會在達到某些里程碑時進行公開揭露。所以你只能接受你所擁有的一切。我認為最重要的訊息是，我們仍然有信心在年中獲得這項交易的批准。我在事先準備好的評論中補充了一些細節。

Again, basic headlines, there are no product overlaps between these two companies. And at least as best I can tell, from every customer reaction I had before we announced this deal and every customer transaction that I've had the benefit of having subsequently, there's a genuine investment in the success of the combined Company and the innovation that will be possible as a result of this investment.

再說一遍，簡單來說，這兩家公司的產品沒有任何重疊。至少就我所知，從我們在宣布這項交易之前我收到的每一個客戶的反饋，以及之後我有幸參與的每一筆客戶交易來看，客戶確實對合併後公司的成功以及這項投資所帶來的創新投入了真切的信心。

Thanks, Amit.

謝謝你，阿米特。

Tim Arcuri, Cowen and Company.

提姆·阿庫裡，考恩公司。

Martin, I just wanted to ask about China. And I know that most of the activity's from the multinationals right now. But can you sort of talk a bit about there's a lot of these big, huge chunky numbers out there, these big memory projects, most of them beginning at the end of this year and sort of into next year. You can debate how much IP they have, but certainly they seem pretty focused on spending that money. So I'm wondering whether you've thought about, sort of what the incremental is to WFE, or more specifically your business from the captive Chinese projects? Could it add a couple billion dollars to WFE as early next year? Thanks.

馬丁，我只是想問關於中國的事情。而且我知道，目前大部分活動都來自跨國公司。但是您能否談談目前有很多規模龐大、意義重大的項目，這些大型記憶項目，其中大部分都從今年年底開始，一直持續到明年？你可以爭論他們擁有多少智慧財產權，但他們顯然非常注重花錢。所以我想知道您是否考慮過，WFE，或者更具體地說，您從中國外包專案中獲得的增量收益是多少？明年最早能為WFE增加幾十億美元嗎？謝謝。

I would certainly think there is a very compelling and thoughtful strategic rationale for the investments. The kind of balance of payments motivation, from my point of view at least, is very intuitive. As Doug outlined in his prepared comments today, the majority of today's investment is the international companies. And so clearly there is upside to the extent that there are indigenous company investments made, which to your point, require access to technology one way or other. Either it's acquired, partnered, or developed internally. My instinct is that in the long term the investment that's available to our industry, the investment in WFE, naturally balances around supply and demand.

我認為這些投資肯定有非常令人信服且深思熟慮的策略理由。至少在我看來，這種國際收支平衡的動機是非常直覺的。正如道格在今天準備好的演講稿中所概述的那樣，目前大部分投資都流向了國際公司。因此，很明顯，如果對本土公司進行投資，就會有好處，正如你所說，這無論如何都需要獲得技術。要嘛是收購，要嘛是合作，要嘛是內部開發。我的直覺是，從長遠來看，我們產業可獲得的投資，也就是對WFE的投資，自然會圍繞著供需關係達到平衡。

So is there a spike at the beginning of a geographic commitment to an investment like China? Probably yes. Exactly how much? To be determined in my opinion. But I think at least perhaps if not more important question is, what are the opportunities for incremental IC unit demand to be created from this investment, and what capital equipment additions would prevail in that context. I think we all recognize that incremental IC unit growth only occurs when there are performance or cost benefits above and beyond a baseline. Certainly the partnerships that emerge in China between design houses, semiconductor companies, electronics companies and ultimately semiconductor manufacturers create opportunities for partnerships to be a catalyst to demand.

那麼，在對中國等地區進行投資的初期，是否有投資激增的情況？大概是吧。具體多少？依我之見，這還有待確定。但我認為，至少或許更重要的問題是，這項投資能帶來哪些增量積體電路單元需求的機會，以及在這種情況下，哪些資本設備會增加。我認為我們都認識到，只有當效能或成本優勢超出基準水準時，積體電路單元才會出現增量成長。在中國，設計公司、半導體公司、電子公司以及最終的半導體製造商之間建立的合作關係，無疑為合作成為需求的催化劑創造了機會。

Whether performance benefits prevail is to be determined. And cost benefits obviously capture the government incentives and agenda that are relevant, particularly in China in the next several years. So I do expect a bump, to be determined how big. I do think it's an authentic agenda. I do think it will be executed with discipline. I think in the long term it's all about the cost and the performance of a chip.

績效優勢是否能夠顯現，還有待觀察。成本效益顯然反映了政府的激勵措施和議程，尤其是在未來幾年中國的相關政策和議程。所以我預計會出現成長，但成長幅度還有待觀察。我認為這確實是一個真實的計劃。我認為這件事會得到嚴謹的執行。我認為從長遠來看，一切都取決於晶片的成本和性能。

Got it, Martin. Thank you for that. Then I guess just as a quick follow-up. I think the numbers suggest that the industry's adding this year sort of from a trajectory point of view in 3D roughly 200,000 versus where you closed last year and versus that 350,000 to 400,000 that you'll close this year. At that sort of 200,000 run rate, is there -- is that a reasonable number to assume that the industry will add per year going forward, or rather will convert? Or is this year a year that was like abnormally above that? I'm just sort of trying to figure out how much more -- how many more years -- people are concerned about how many more years there's left on the conversion of the existing planar. I'm trying to help that thinking. Thanks.

明白了，馬丁。謝謝。那麼，我想再補充一點。我認為這些數字表明，從發展軌跡來看，今年 3D 產業的新增量約為 20 萬部，而去年同期為 35 萬至 40 萬部。以 20 萬輛的年增長率來看，這個數字是否合理，可以假設該行業未來每年新增或轉換的車輛數量會是多少？或者說，今年的情況異常高於往年？我只是想弄清楚人們究竟還有多少年——還有多少年——擔心現有平面圖的轉換還能持續多少年。我正在努力改變這種想法。謝謝。

I think as best I can tell, it's kind of four years, plus or minus a bit. That's kind of the customer dialogue. Another piece of data is that the data that I think I included in my prepared comments, that the 350,000 to 400,000 is a shipped capacity reference. Probably a third of that is being qualified at the end of the year. So it'll take some time to get production ready. There are, I think, 1.3 million wafer starts per month of capacity in the nonvolatile memory space. So the headline is, less than 25% of it is capable of making a 3D device by the end of this year.

我覺得，就我所知，大概是四年左右，上下可能略有出入。這就是典型的客戶對話。另一項數據是，我認為我在準備好的評論中包含的數據，即 350,000 至 400,000 是一個出貨能力參考值。其中可能三分之一將在年底獲得資格。所以還需要一些時間才能做好生產準備。我認為，非揮發性記憶體領域每月晶圓開工量約為 130 萬片。所以，重點是，到今年年底，只有不到 25% 的國家能夠製造 3D 設備。

I think your question, obviously is specifically unanswerable because at the end of the day the pace at which the customer transitions is a byproduct of success in the marketplace on performance and cost. But the momentum is clearly there. It is the device, and our customers have made that commitment. So I think 95% of spending this year is 3D device architecture. And they'll, as best I can tell, execute that over a four-year period, plus or minus a bit. Three to five years is probably a reasonable proxy, but it speeds up or slows down on the basis of cost and performance.

我認為你的問題顯然是無法回答的，因為歸根結底，客戶轉變的速度是市場在性能和成本方面成功的副產品。但勢頭顯然已經形成。就是這台設備，我們的客戶也已經做出了這樣的選擇。所以我認為今年95%的支出都將用於3D設備架構。據我所知，他們將在四年左右的時間內完成這項任務。三到五年可能是一個合理的參考時間，但具體時間會根據成本和性能而加快或減慢。

And Tim as you know, even once is converted 3D will evolve in terms of layer count and the architecture. So even after planar to 3D is done making that conversion, 3D to 3D has a long way in front of it.

提姆，如你所知，即使轉換成 3D 模型，其圖層數量和架構也會不斷發展。因此，即使平面到 3D 的轉換已經完成，3D 到 3D 的轉換還有很長的路要走。

Yes. I mean, it's -- for sure, it is a 10-year roadmap to be very clear with you. And deposition and etch segments are well recognized, I think, by every industry participant at this point that we're kind of very central to vertical scaling. And the other reference I think that's relevant to answer your question is, what is the roadmap for SSDs. This is probably the single biggest example in the semiconductor industry for IC unit demand creation. And there is a $30 billion hard disk drive marketplace that every solid-state drive company is pursuing. And our ability to contribute productivity and performance to that agenda is a real enabler of incremental IC unit demand, which is a supplement to what we are describing here. So from my point of view, it is a really exciting headline.

是的。我的意思是，可以肯定的是，這絕對是一個為期 10 年的路線圖，這一點我必須非常明確地告訴你。我認為，目前業內所有參與者都清楚地認識到，沉積和蝕刻環節對於垂直規模化至關重要。我認為與回答你的問題相關的另一個參考資料是，固態硬碟的發展路線圖是什麼。這可能是半導體產業中創造積體電路單元需求的最大單一案例。而硬碟市場規模高達 300 億美元，每家固態硬碟公司都在競相爭奪這個市場。我們為實現這一目標貢獻生產力和績效的能力，真正推動了積體電路單元需求的成長，這補充了我們在這裡所描述的內容。所以在我看來，這真是一個令人興奮的標題。

Thanks, Tim.

謝謝你，提姆。

For sure, guys. Thanks.

當然，夥計們。謝謝。

Harlan Sur, JPMorgan.

哈蘭‧蘇爾，摩根大通。

Good afternoon, and solid job on the quarterly execution. Martin, you seem confident on second half sales growth versus first half. You seem to have maybe a slightly more tempered view on second half shipment growth versus first half. Maybe not as much as you had previously anticipated. I think you mentioned maybe a slightly lower DRAM spending profile. Any other moving pieces, logic or foundry, which slightly tempers your kind of second-half shipment outlook?

下午好，季度報告執行得非常出色。馬丁，你似乎對下半年的銷售成長比上半年更有信心。你似乎對下半年的出貨量成長持比上半年更為謹慎的看法。或許沒有你之前預期的那麼多。我想你之前有提到或許可以稍微降低DRAM的支出水準。還有其他因素，例如邏輯或鑄造工藝，可能會稍微影響您對下半年出貨量的預期嗎？

No. Simple answer. It really is kind of a PC and DRAM kind of story. There's a little bit of rebalancing going on between the June quarter and September quarter, but that will always be true and we'll probably see even more by the time we get there, in what direction I can't tell you today. But the headline for us in terms of momentum I think is really positive.

不。簡單來說。這其實是一個關於電腦和記憶體的故事。6 月季度和 9 月季度之間會有一些重新平衡，但這始終存在，而且到那時我們可能會看到更多，至於會朝哪個方向發展，我今天還不能告訴你。但就發展勢頭而言，我認為對我們來說，最積極的消息是真的。

We believe that our -- as we're guiding today, our first half 2016 shipments exceed our second half 2015 shipments. We believe that we've got potential for second half 2016 shipments to exceed first half 2016 shipments. And we're very confident that second half 2016 revenues exceed first half 2016 revenues. At a segment level, our first half 2016 memory shipments exceed our second half 2015 memory shipments. That's probably a Company-specific commentary that you're going to have to absorb and digest from a modeling point of view. But the real swing factor in terms of WFE was PC units and the consequence in DRAM. And certainly the good news is, I made both of those statements because if we had a PC adjustment and no adjustment in DRAM spending, we'd be setting ourselves up collectively for a bigger problem statement. For me, that's a great commentary on the industry's ability to react to changes in their marketplace.

我們相信——正如我們今天所預測的那樣——我們 2016 年上半年的出貨量將超過 2015 年下半年的出貨量。我們相信，2016 年下半年的出貨量有可能超過 2016 年上半年的出貨量。我們非常有信心，2016 年下半年的收入將超過 2016 年上半年的收入。從細分市場來看，我們 2016 年上半年的記憶體出貨量超過了 2015 年下半年的記憶體出貨量。這可能是公司特有的評論，你需要從建模的角度去理解和消化。但真正對 WFE 產生決定性影響的是 PC 單元以及由此帶來的 DRAM 問題。當然，好消息是，我之所以做出這兩點表態，是因為如果我們只調整個人電腦價格而不調整記憶體支出，我們最終會面臨更大的問題。對我來說，這很好地體現了該行業應對市場變化的能力。

Yes. Appreciate that. That's good color. Solid job on the disciplined OpEx. Implied within your guidance, I think, for the June quarter is a step up to about $365 million. It's still lower than the overall top-line growth and responsible for the operating margin expansion. As the team steps up revenues into the second half of the calendar year, how should we think about your level of OpEx growth relative to top-line growth?

是的。謝謝。顏色真好看。營運執行方面做得非常出色。我認為，從您的指導方針中可以推斷出，6 月份季度的業績將增長至約 3.65 億美元。雖然成長率仍低於整體營收成長速度，但卻是營業利益率擴張的主要原因。隨著團隊在下半年加大營收投入，我們該如何看待您的營運支出成長水準與營收成長之間的關係？

Yes. Harlan, the way you should think about it is, I'll just refer you back to the financial model that we shared with you at SEMICON mid-last year. That's how we think about managing the Company. It won't be exactly that every single quarter, but we do have that in our minds when we let R&D spending, and by the way, in the June quarter the biggest uptick in spending will be R&D. But we're cognizant of the profitability of the Company as we manage things.

是的。哈蘭，你應該這樣想：我建議你回顧我們去年中在 SEMICON 上與你分享的財務模型。這就是我們對公司管理的思考方式。雖然每季的情況可能不盡相同，但我們在製定研發支出計畫時確實會考慮到這一點。順便說一句，在六月的季度裡，研發支出將出現最大的成長。但我們在管理各項事務時，始終牢記公司的獲利能力。

Great. Thank you.

偉大的。謝謝。

Thanks, Harlan.

謝謝你，哈蘭。

Farhan Ahmad, Credit Suisse.

Farhan Ahmad，瑞士信貸。

Martin, my question is on your etch market share on staircase. One of your competitors was obviously talking about market share at staircase early in the 3D NAND cycle. I just want to understand what drove the market share shift towards Lam? And how big is the market, and where are we in terms of -- what's the market share like on the already installed base and how you see that going forward on the staircase etch?

Martin，我的問題是關於你在樓梯蝕刻市場份額的問題。顯然，你的某個競爭對手在 3D NAND 週期的早期就談到了市場佔有率的階梯式成長。我只是想了解是什麼原因導致市場佔有率轉移到Lam？市場規模有多大？就現有用戶群而言，我們的市佔率如何？您如何看待未來樓梯蝕刻技術的發展？

I think the most important headline today, is the very same headline we communicated I think in SEMICON West 2014. And the headline was, the most important selection decision is the production tool of record decision. That is true for us as it is for anybody else in the industry. We all work really hard to get a development tool of record position, but the only way you actually extend that into a production total of record decision, which is where the money gets spent, is by demonstrating an ability to meet the specifications that you sold or positioned, and making it productive and repeatable, and having consistency of high-volume manufacturing production for our customers.

我認為今天最重要的頭條新聞，正是我們在 2014 年 SEMICON West 展會上傳達的頭條新聞。標題是：最重要的選擇決定是製作記錄工具的決定。對我們來說，情況確實如此，對業內其他任何人來說也是如此。我們都非常努力地開發出具有記錄地位的開發工具，但要真正將其轉化為具有記錄地位的生產決策（也就是資金投入的地方），唯一的辦法就是證明自己有能力滿足所售或所定位的規格，使其高效且可重複，並為我們的客戶提供大批量生產的穩定性。

That's a continuum. And all of a sudden it is not just, oh, we are done. We never have to worry about that anymore. We have to work really hard every single day to make sure that the advantage that we've been able to present, that has legitimized our participation in staircase selections is something that sustains itself over multiple years. That's clearly the objective for the Company. It's really about just the natural passing of time and transitioning from DTOR to PTOR. Staircase is an important application. It's not the most critical. I think you recollect that we have about 90% market share in the critical etch and deposition applications in the 3D NAND transition. And that's the kind of foundation of competitive strength for the Company, and the staircase is something we worked hard to position in the HVM selections. And we're very pleased with the results, although we've got more work to do, and more upside of course.

這是一個連續的過程。突然之間，事情不再只是「哦，我們結束了」。我們再也不用擔心這個問題了。我們必須每天非常努力地工作，以確保我們所展現的優勢，即我們參與樓梯選擇的優勢，能夠持續多年。這顯然是公司的目標。這實際上只是時間的自然流逝以及從 DTOR 過渡到 PTOR 的過程。樓梯是一個重要的應用。這並非最關鍵的問題。我想您應該還記得，我們​​在 3D NAND 過渡的關鍵蝕刻和沈積應用領域擁有約 90% 的市場份額。這就是公司競爭優勢的基礎，而階梯是我們努力在高價值產品選擇中定位的。我們對結果非常滿意，儘管我們還有更多的工作要做，當然也有更多的發展空間。

Thank you. My second question is regarding the ALD and ALE opportunity. At SPIE, obviously Lam talked about the great importance of ALD and ALE and some of your customers as well, in addressing some of the edge placement error issues. I want to understand, like, should we think of these markets as being incremental to your core market, or is just that you have more of the traditional etch being replaced by atomic layer etch? And how does the shift from more of the traditional etches to atomic layer etch, how does that affect your market opportunities? Is it much slower, is it -- like on a per layer basis, much more intensive? If you could talk about that, that would be really helpful.

謝謝。我的第二個問題是關於ALD和ALE的機會。在 SPIE 上，Lam 顯然談到了 ALD 和 ALE 在解決一些邊緣放置誤差問題方面的重要性，他的一些客戶也談到了這一點。我想了解的是，我們應該把這些市場看作是核心市場的增量，還是只是用原子層蝕刻取代了更多的傳統蝕刻製程？從傳統蝕刻製程轉向原子層蝕刻工藝，這對您的市場機會有何影響？速度慢很多嗎？或者說，逐層計算的話，強度高很多嗎？如果你能談談這方面，那就太好了。

I would say, and this is going to be a Lam-specific commentary. I would say for etch I would not be thinking of it as particularly incremental. I think it's a commentary on more capability, more defendability, and higher barriers of entry around the critical applications focus that we have in our Company and the position of strength we have in etch. So, for me, as the technology roadmap of the customer gets more challenging, the bigger the proportion of etch-related differentiation will be occupied by atomic-level control.

我想說，這將會是一篇專門針對林鄭月娥的評論。我認為對於蝕刻製程來說，它並不算是一種特別漸進的改變。我認為這體現了我們公司在關鍵應用領域擁有更強的能力、更高的防禦能力和更高的進入門檻，以及我們在蝕刻領域的優勢地位。因此，對我來說，隨著客戶的技術路線圖變得越來越具有挑戰性，蝕刻相關差異化所佔的比例將越來越大，而原子級控制將佔據更大的比例。

The deposition answer might be slightly different. And again, this is clearly a commentary for Lam Research because we don't have the comprehensive deposition product portfolio. We have at least one sizable gap in the product portfolio compared to others. And so the atomic level deposition product roadmap for us has an opportunity to be disruptive more holistically and create growth potentials for Lam Research above and beyond what might be available for a generic deposition kind of baseline.

證詞可能略有不同。再次強調，這顯然是針對 Lam Research 的評論，因為我們沒有全面的沉積產品組合。與其他公司相比，我們的產品組合至少有一個較大的差距。因此，原子級沉積產品路線圖對我們來說有機會在更全面地顛覆產業現狀，並為 Lam Research 創造超越通用沉積基準的成長潛力。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Joseph Moore, Morgan Stanley.

約瑟夫‧摩爾，摩根士丹利。

Great. Thank you. I wondered if you talk a little bit about your memory customers and the relationship between their spending levels and their cash flow. Both NAND and DRAM are quite a bit worse than I probably thought they'd be year to date. I think there's pretty good cash flow coverage on the spending now. But it's eroding as the year goes by. What are your conversations with your customers telling you about that? And how much of your thinking in the second half is predicated on memory economics getting better?

偉大的。謝謝。我想請您談談您的儲存設備客戶以及他們的消費水準和現金流之間的關係。今年迄今為止，NAND 和 DRAM 的表現都比我預想的要差很多。我認為目前的現金流足以覆蓋支出。但隨著時間的推移，這種情況正逐漸消失。你與客戶的對話告訴你了什麼？你在後半部的思考中，有多少是基於記憶經濟學將會改善這個假設？

Well, it may or may not surprise you but I don't actually have that precise conversation with a customer, because that is their gig and their business, not mine. What I do focus on is sustainability of investments. So what I do focus on is a strategic nature of investments and what I do focus on is the response to changes in IC unit demand. And so when I look at memory, I see the type of correction happening in DRAM that I consider to be healthy, responsible, and disciplined. And that's a good thing for the future of the industry and it kind of sets us up, I think, in DRAM for a more positive year in 2017 than 2016. But a lot can happen between now and then.

或許你會感到驚訝，或許不會，但我其實並不會和客戶進行那樣的對話，因為那是他們的工作和生意，不是我的。我關注的是投資的可持續性。所以我關注的是投資的戰略性質，以及對積體電路單元需求變化的因應。因此，當我觀察記憶體時，我看到DRAM中發生的這種糾正方式，我認為是健康、負責和有紀律的。這對產業的未來來說是件好事，我認為這讓DRAM產業在2017年比2016年迎來更積極的一年。但從現在到那時，可能會發生很多事情。

And in NAND, this is about as strategic as it gets. You have the first year in history where every single participant of the nonvolatile memory space is committed to 3D architecture. And clearly they have to have an ability to pay for that roadmap. But I think it is so strategic, few would be compromised by short-term profitability or short-term kind of cash issues. Hope that helps.

在 NAND 快閃記憶體領域，這可以說是最具戰略意義的了。這是歷史上第一個所有非揮發性記憶體領域的參與者都致力於 3D 架構的年份。顯然，他們必須有能力支付該路線圖的費用。但我認為這具有如此重要的戰略意義，很少有人會因為短期獲利能力或短期現金問題而妥協。希望對您有幫助。

Yes, that helps. Then I guess also in DRAM where all three of your DRAM customers are working on important yield transitions. Are you seeing flexibility there? And I think you talked about maybe a little bit of lower expectation for DRAM. Any concerns that that continues to deteriorate if DRAM continues to deteriorate?

是的，這很有幫助。那我想在DRAM領域也是如此，你們的三個DRAM客戶都在進行重要的良率轉型。你覺得這方面有彈性嗎？我認為你之前也提到過，大家對DRAM的期望可能會稍微降低一些。如果DRAM效能持續下降，這種情況是否會繼續惡化？

No. Clearly the market is telling us something with ASPs, with announcements in the kind of PC space and DRAM generally. I think people are kind of adjusting their plans. And there still is significant legitimacy to 20-nanometer transitions and 1X roadmaps, and there's a generation or two beyond that, in people's strategic plans. And there are real performance and cost benefits that go with that roadmap. We are assuming we ended the year with slightly less capacity in terms of wafer starts than we began the year, which kind of sets us up nicely for next year.

不。顯然，市場正在透過平均售價（ASP）向我們傳遞一些訊息，PC領域和DRAM領域的相關公告也印證了這一點。我認為人們正在調整他們的計劃。20 奈米過渡和 1X 路線圖仍然具有相當大的合法性，而且在人們的策略規劃中，還有一兩代以上的發展空間。而且，該路線圖確實能帶來性能和成本的優勢。我們預計年底晶圓開工量將略低於年初的產能，這為明年奠定了良好的基礎。

That's very helpful. Thanks very much.

那很有幫助。非常感謝。

Thanks, Joe.

謝謝你，喬。

Patrick Ho, Stifel.

Patrick Ho，Stifel。

Thank you very much. Martin, first in terms of the logic and foundry space, you mentioned that you saw both investments in 10- and 28-nanometer. How is the life extension of these logic nodes, particularly for 28-nanometer, and probably for both 14-nanometer and 10-nanometer. How does that extension of life for these nodes, I guess, benefit you specifically in terms of both systems as well as the after-market sales?

非常感謝。Martin，首先就邏輯和代工領域而言，你提到你看到了對 10 奈米和 28 奈米技術的投資。這些邏輯節點的壽命延長情況如何，特別是 28 奈米工藝，可能還有 14 奈米和 10 奈米製程。我想，延長這些節點的使用壽命，對你們的系統以及售後市場銷售究竟有何具體好處？

I am not sure I'm going to get your question here, but I will give it a shot. Obviously we have a very long tail to our installed base business when we sell something. It is a 20-year commitment to our customers once we sell the system in many respects, and a 20-year opportunity in terms of upgradability and productivity improvements and so on and so forth. Clearly, this is the year where the majority of investments in logic and foundry are focused on leading-edge technology. But the cycle of investments in IoT and other broad marketplaces, the 28 is creating installed base business opportunities above and beyond our baseline.

我不確定我能否在這裡回答你的問題，但我會盡力嘗試。顯然，當我們銷售產品時，我們的客戶群會擁有非常長的尾部。從很多方面來說，一旦我們把系統賣給客戶，就意味著我們對客戶做出了長達 20 年的承諾；從可升級性和生產力提升等方面來說，也意味著 20 年的機會。顯然，今年邏輯晶片和代工領域的大部分投資都集中在尖端技術上。但隨著物聯網和其他廣泛市場領域的投資週期不斷推進，28 正在創造超出我們基準線的已安裝基礎業務機會。

You may recollect from our SEMICON West presentation a year or so ago we talked about an objective to grow our installed base business at a rate that was faster than our installed base segment growth as we introduce new products and services to accommodate and respond to the productivity needs of our customers in the mature technology nodes, and that's exactly what we're executing. Hopefully, I got the essence of your question there.

您可能還記得，大約一年前我們在 SEMICON West 展會上談到，我們的目標是使已安裝基礎業務的增長速度超過已安裝基礎細分市場的增長速度，同時推出新產品和服務，以滿足和響應成熟技術節點中客戶的生產力需求，而這正是我們正在執行的目標。希望我理解了你問題的要點。

Yes. I will use my follow-up maybe to kind of expound on that. I guess what I was trying to get is, in the past you see leading-edge nodes when they ramp up, the previous node kind of starts falling off and pretty rapidly. But you're seeing these older nodes last a lot longer. What are the incremental opportunities, both on a system side as well as on the after-markets there is for Lam, given these changing industry dynamics?

是的。我可能會在後續文章中對此進行更詳細的闡述。我想表達的是，過去你會看到前沿節點在加速發展時，前一個節點就開始快速衰退。但你會發現這些老節點的使用壽命要長得多。鑑於產業動態的變化，Lam 在系統層面和售後市場有哪些新增機會？

There clearly is an opportunity. And so, incremental 28-nanometer shows up because it's a great node in many respects. It has a good performance threshold and cost dynamic that is relevant for a lot of kind of IoT-related demand. And it's kind of a sweet spot in many respects. We have great position. We are developing in some cases a new product to be more competitive in the more mature technology nodes.

顯然存在機會。因此，28 奈米製程製程之所以出現，是因為它在許多方面都是一個很棒的製程節點。它具有良好的效能閾值和成本動態，能夠滿足許多物聯網相關需求。從很多方面來看，這都算是理想的平衡點。我們佔據了有利位置。在某些情況下，我們正在開發新產品，以便在更成熟的技術節點上更具競爭力。

And there are even examples where we're introducing new 200-milimeter products, believe it or not, for some of these applications. They're not necessarily material in the context of the revenues of the Company, but hopefully illustrative of the commitment that we make to all customers, not just those customers with the leading edge. Clearly when it comes to productivity solutions, clearly when it comes to installed base improvement, advanced services, utilization, productivity and reuse are everything to do with the economics of the semiconductor industry these days. And that's not really new. But to your point, we're finding ways to contribute more to the customer success and create SAM expansion opportunities and increase market share for Lam at the same time.

甚至還有一些例子，我們針對某些應用推出了新的 200 毫米產品，信不信由你。雖然這些金額在公司的收入方面可能並不重要，但希望能反映我們對所有客戶的承諾，而不僅僅是對那些處於領先地位的客戶的承諾。顯然，就生產力解決方案而言，就已安裝基礎改善而言，高級服務、利用率、生產力和再利用都與當今半導體產業的經濟狀況息息相關。這其實並不是什麼新鮮事。但正如您所說，我們正在尋找方法，為客戶的成功做出更多貢獻，同時創造 SAM 擴展機會，並提高 Lam 的市場份額。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, Patrick.

謝謝你，派崔克。

Steven Chin, UBS.

Steven Chin，瑞銀集團。

Congrats on the results. Just a follow-up question on the strong shipments that you saw to China in this March quarter. Can you share some color on the customer diversity there? Was it concentrated in just one of these multinational customers or more than one? Just wondering if we should think about China being a lumpy shipment region, or are there enough multinational customers to make this a consistently high region every quarter?

恭喜取得好成績。關於您在今年三月季度看到的對華強勁出貨量，我還有一個後續問題。能介紹一下貴公司客戶群的多元情況嗎？是只集中在一家跨國客戶身上，還是集中在不只一家？我想知道我們是否應該將中國視為一個出貨量波動較大的地區，還是說中國擁有足夠多的跨國客戶，足以讓該地區每季的出貨量都保持在高水準？

You are seeing pretty much everybody that's spending at the leading edge and some not at the leading edge, actually it's not really leading edge, making investments in China. 80%-ish of the spending that we are seeing are global multinationals putting some level of capability in China, Steven. And it is not one, it is pretty much across the board. And I think it's been pretty well chronicled in the trade press who's making those investments.

你會看到幾乎所有處於行業領先地位的人，以及一些並非處於行業領先地位的人（實際上，他們並不真正處於行業領先地位），都在中國進行投資。史蒂文，我們看到的支出中，大約 80% 是全球跨國公司在中國投入一定規模的生產能力。而且這並非個別現象，而是普遍現象。我認為產業媒體已經對哪些人在進行這些投資做了相當詳細的報導。

Okay. Thanks for sharing that. And then just a follow-up question on trying to size up the wafer fab equipment opportunity in China. Do you think we can think about looking at China's installed base of 200-milimeter wafer capacity, and possibly thinking about how much it costs to bring all of that to, let's say, state-of-the-art 300-milimeter capacity? Is that a reasonable way to try to size up the long-term China WFE market? Thanks.

好的。謝謝分享。然後還有一個後續問題，關於如何評估中國晶圓製造設備的市場機會。您認為我們可以考慮中國現有的 200 毫米晶圓產能，並考慮一下將所有這些產能提升到例如最先進的 300 毫米產能需要多少成本嗎？這是評估中國WFE市場長期規模的合理方法嗎？謝謝。

You probably have to ask them. I am sure that the full spectrum of options will be exploited at some level, right? There are assets in place at 200-milimeters and below and assets of 300-milimeters, and the customer will optimize that footprint as well as they can. But if they have presumably productive fabs at 200-milimeters that are at technology nodes that meet and are correlated with the domestic demand, there as likely if not more likely to stay in that form than be changed. Our instinct is that if you go back to your first principles here, performance and cost matter when it comes to the agenda and the sustainability of an agenda. It would seem more rational that more of the spending is 300-milimeters related, certainly in terms of greenfield.

你可能得問問他們。我相信各種選擇都會在某種程度上充分利用，對吧？目前已有高度為 200 毫米及以下的資產和高度為 300 毫米的資產，客戶將盡可能優化其占地面積。但是，如果他們擁有生產效率高的 200 毫米晶圓廠，其技術節點能夠滿足國內需求並與之相關，那麼他們很可能（如果不是更有可能的話）會保持這種形式，而不是改變。我們的直覺是，如果回到最初的原則，那麼在議程及其永續性方面，績效和成本都很重要。更合理的解釋是，大部分支出都與 300 毫米公路相關，尤其是在新項目方面。

Thanks, Martin.

謝謝你，馬丁。

Thanks, Steven.

謝謝你，史蒂文。

Krish Sankar, Bank of America.

Krish Sankar，美國銀行。

Hi. Thanks for taking my question. I had a couple of them. Thanks for the color on the second-half shipment and revenue. I wanted to the question a different way. If the industry is flattish this year for WFE, given the last couple of years you guys are out-perform the industry. Is it fair to assume your growth, revenue growth, to be better than the industry trend for this year, calendar 2016?

你好。謝謝您回答我的問題。我有幾個。感謝您提供的下半年出貨量和收入數據。我想換一種方式提問。如果今年WFE產業整體表現平平，考慮到過去幾年你們的表現，你們已經超越了行業平均。假設貴公司2016年（日曆年）的成長（營收成長）優於產業趨勢，此假設是否合理？

That is the plan.

這就是計劃。

Yes, Krish. We've talked about these technology inflections. It'll be a bigger percent of the total spend this year than they were last year. And as you know, that benefits us.

是的，克里什。我們已經討論過這些技術變革。今年這部分支出佔總支出的比例將比去年更高。正如你所知，這對我們有好處。

Another reference, and it's not a linear progression. So it's a little hard for us to give you much more than these two reference points. The out-performance commentary of the Company is highly correlated to the technology inflections, 3D device architecture and multi-patterning. We talked about it many times. Our estimate of the proportionate of WFE last year that was inflections-based was 33%. Our estimate of the proportion of WFE that will be inflections-based in calendar 2018 is approximately 55%. We're on a journey. We've come from 0% to 33% last year, and we're on our way to the mid-50%s a few years from now.

另一個參考文獻，而且並非線性發展。所以，除了這兩個參考點之外，我們很難提供更多資訊。公司業績優異的評論與技術轉折點、3D 裝置架構和多重圖案化高度相關。我們討論過很多次了。我們估計去年基於拐點的 WFE 比例為 33%。我們估計，2018 年日曆年中，WFE 中基於拐點的比例約為 55%。我們正在踏上旅程。去年我們從 0% 成長到 33%，幾年後我們將達到 50% 左右。

Got it, got it. That's helpful. And then an industry-level question. When you see the second half versus first half competitors and on the spending run rate, looks like there's more 3D NAND spending in the first half of this year. Should we assume the second half is going to be weighted more towards 10-nanometer, logic foundry customers? And if so, does it have any impact on your gross margin profile?

明白了，明白了。那很有幫助。然後是一個產業層面的問題。從下半年與上半年競爭對手的對比以及支出成長率來看，今年上半年 3D NAND 的支出似乎更多。我們是否可以假設下半年的市佔率將更多地轉向 10 奈米邏輯代工廠客戶？如果是這樣，這會對你的毛利率產生什麼影響？

We had previously stated that all segments except NAND were second-half biased. As the byproduct of this PC and DRAM story, we would now say memory first half 2016 is stronger than second half 2016, and logic foundry, to your point, is second half 2016 stronger than first half 2016. If you want a kind of first-half/second-half profile, our assumption is memory is in the mid-50%s in the first half and foundry logic is 55% to 60% level in the second half of 2016.

我們之前曾說過，除 NAND 晶片外，所有其他晶片都存在後半段偏壓現象。作為 PC 和 DRAM 故事的副產品，我們現在可以說 2016 年上半年的內存比 2016 年下半年更強勁，而邏輯代工，正如您所說，2016 年下半年比 2016 年上半年更強勁。如果您想了解上半年/下半年的概況，我們假設 2016 年上半年記憶體使用率在 50% 左右，而 2016 年下半年代工邏輯使用率在 55% 到 60% 之間。

Got it. Thank you. That's very helpful. Thanks guys.

知道了。謝謝。那很有幫助。謝謝各位。

CJ Muse, Evercore.

CJ Muse，Evercore。

Good afternoon. Thank you for taking my question. I guess first question, Martin, you've outlined basically a flat WFE outlook. Curious what it would take to see growth this year? Where would you handicap the highest probability where you could see an upward surprise?

午安.感謝您回答我的問題。馬丁，我想問的第一個問題是，你基本上概述了一個平穩的WFE前景。想知道今年要實現成長需要做些什麼嗎？你認為在哪些情況下最有可能出現意外上漲？

I would -- I don't think I would call out DRAM. (Laughter) I guess that means I'd call out 3D NAND or logic. I think there's, as we've discussed many times, there is a real value proposition here to high-performing and lower cost nonvolatile memory relative to solid state drive and hard disk drive trade-offs. There is a compelling motivation to be as good as we can as an ecosystem as fast as we can.

我不會－我不認為我會點名批評DRAM。（笑聲）我猜這意味著我會提到 3D NAND 或邏輯電路。我認為，正如我們多次討論的那樣，高性能、低成本的非揮發性記憶體相對於固態硬碟和機械硬碟而言，確實具有真正的價值。我們有強烈的動機，要盡快使生態系統盡可能完善。

This is a pretty complex transition and it's the first year where everybody is kind of invested in it. So it's not the easiest thing to do. But I would say at least from the interactions I've had with customers, the direction in terms of yielding is very positive. Probably the biggest upside is 3D NAND in terms of really getting traction. And how that plays out, we will see. Technically there's probably upside in foundry relative to 7-nanometer. But that is some ways off probably, if I interpret the comments from our customers in the last several days correctly.

這是一個相當複雜的過渡期，也是大家第一次都投入其中。所以這並不是一件容易的事。但就我與客戶的互動而言，至少可以說，收益方向非常正面。3D NAND 可能最大的優勢在於它有望真正獲得市場認可。至於結果如何，我們拭目以待。從技術角度來看，相較於 7 奈米製程，晶圓代工可能還有提升空間。但如果我正確解讀了過去幾天客戶的評論，那可能還需要一段時間。

Very helpful. I guess as my follow-up, there seems to be a pretty good debate around sustainability of 10- and 7-nanometer foundry logic spending. Just curious. If we added roughly 10,000 equipment shipped in 2015, roughly 35,000 this year, how do you think the world evolves next year? I know it's a long time from now, but would love to hear your thoughts.

很有幫助。我想補充的是，目前似乎存在著關於 10 奈米和 7 奈米晶圓代工邏輯支出可持續性的相當激烈的爭論。只是好奇而已。如果我們在 2015 年出貨約 10,000 台設備的基礎上，今年出貨約 35,000 台設備，您認為明年世界將如何發展？我知道現在還早，但我很想聽聽你的想法。

Yes. Unfortunately I'm not going to be quantitative about those thoughts. Qualitatively, as best I can tell, CJ, there is much more substance to a 10- and 7-nanometer conversation in terms of performance and cost benefits for the fabless community than was true at 16-nanometer. The tape-out data that's presented looks like it is supporting that rationale. The fabless community and the foundries have growth trajectories that exceed overall semiconductors. So at the end of the day it's going to boil down to the reality of power, processing speed, and cost. And if the substance of those roadmaps is there, from my point of view, they will be demanded. And IC unit growth in those segments will create capital equipment expansion in our industry. That's the best I can do.

是的。很遺憾，我無法對這些想法進行量化分析。就我所知，CJ，從定性角度來看，對於無晶圓廠社區而言，10 奈米和 7 奈米在性能和成本優勢方面的討論比 16 奈米更有實質意義。從目前公佈的流片數據來看，似乎支持這個論點。無晶圓廠社區和代工廠的成長軌跡超過了半導體產業的整體成長軌跡。所以歸根究底，還是要看性能、處理速度和成本這三者之間的差距。如果這些路線圖的內容屬實，從我的角度來看，它們將會受到重視。這些領域的積體電路單元成長將帶動我們產業的資本設備擴張。我只能做到這樣了。

Very helpful. Thank you.

很有幫助。謝謝。

Thanks, CJ.

謝謝，CJ。

Edwin Mok, Needham & Company.

Edwin Mok，Needham & Company。

Thanks for taking my question. First I want to kind of quickly follow up on the installed base business. I think previously you guys talk about how you're expecting 13% growth for the business over the next few years. Was wondering, are you tracking in line with that? And as some of these new products you have shipped over the last few years come off warranty, do you expect that to drive some incremental growth in that business?

謝謝您回答我的問題。首先，我想快速跟進已安裝用戶群的業務狀況。我認為你們之前說過，預計未來幾年公司業務將成長 13%。我想問一下，你的進度是否與此一致？隨著過去幾年你們推出的一些新產品陸續過保，你們預計這將推動該業務實現一些增量成長嗎？

Yes, yes, and yes. The prepared comments actually were intended to communicate that. We put a lot of time and effort in the last several years into engineering a set of products and services consistent with the objectives that you correctly stated. We validated a number of those with key customer selections last year. And now it's about broadening the penetration of those products. I would expect that the installed base business as a proportion of our business goes up, not down consistent with the SAM expansion that we're describing to you and executing on a day-by-day basis. We come into the year pretty strong, I would say, on installed base products and services.

是的，是的，是的。事先準備好的評論其實就是為了傳達這個意思。過去幾年，我們投入了大量的時間和精力，致力於研發一系列與您正確闡述的目標一致的產品和服務。去年，我們透過關鍵客戶選擇驗證了其中一些。現在，關鍵在於擴大這些產品的市場滲透率。我預計，隨著我們向您描述並每天執行的 SAM 擴展計劃，已安裝業務占我們業務的比例將會上升，而不是下降。我認為，就已安裝的產品和服務基礎而言，我們今年的情況相當強勁。

Great. Actually, that is great color. Just quick follow-up on the DRAM investment there. I think one of your peers has talked about potentially increased DRAM investment they expect to come in the second half of this year, maybe predicated on 18-nanometer investment. Do you have any color in terms of timing of that and where do you think customers are in terms of actually getting ready to ramp 18-nanometer?

偉大的。其實，這個顏色真好看。關於DRAM投資，我簡單跟進。我認為你們的一位同行談到了他們預計今年下半年DRAM投資可能會增加，這可能是基於18奈米技術的投資。您能否透露一下具體時間安排，以及您認為客戶在實際準備量產 18 奈米製程方面處於什麼階段？

There clearly is this kind of roadmap for below 20-nanometer and there's clearly described value from a performance and a cost point of view, and there clearly is some investment showing up this year, at least to the lead times that are relevant in our business in etch and deposition. We don't expect the second half to be stronger than the first half. But depending on your lead times it could well be. And if you have long lead times and that's your conclusion, that probably bodes well for us in the first quarter of next year.

顯然，20 奈米以下的製程路線圖已經制定，從性能和成本的角度來看，其價值也得到了明確的描述，而且今年顯然已經有一些投資投入，至少在我們業務相關的蝕刻和沈積過程的交付週期方面是如此。我們預計下半場不會比上半場好。但這取決於您的交貨週期，很有可能如此。如果你的交貨週期很長，而你得出的結論是這樣，那對我們明年第一季來說可能是個好兆頭。

Okay. Actually, that is good color. Thank you.

好的。其實，這個顏色還挺好看的。謝謝。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Wes Twigg, Pacific Crest Securities.

Wes Twigg，太平洋之巔證券公司。

First just wanted to come back to this ALD growth idea. And wondering if you could give us an idea of your growth expectations or revenue expectations in 2016?

首先我想回到ALD成長這個主題上來。能否請您談談對2016年成長或營收的預期？

Unfortunately not. I would love to help you, Wes. But it is one of the more strategic product lines in the Company. There are hugely complex dynamics associated with positioning an ALD technology against others. We are behaving with stealth for reasons that are really important to us in terms of competitive advantage.

很遺憾，並非如此。韋斯，我很樂意幫助你。但它是公司最具戰略意義的產品線之一。將 ALD 技術與其他技術進行定位，其中涉及極其複雜的動態因素。我們採取低調行事的原因對我們來說至關重要，因為這關係到我們的競爭優勢。

Okay. That makes sense, I guess. I will ask another question you probably can't answer then. (Laughter) You spoke about nonvolatile memory WFE this time. I think what you're trying to perhaps do is be inclusive of 3D Xpoint. And I'm just wondering if you're seeing any 3D Xpoint activity yet, or if you think that will be meaningful this year? Or do think that's more of a 2017 event for you?

好的。我想，這倒也說得通。那我再問一個你可能回答不了的問題。（笑聲）這次你談到了非揮發性記憶體WFE。我認為你可能想做的是將 3D Xpoint 也考慮進去。我想知道您是否已經看到任何關於 3D Xpoint 的活動，或者您認為它今年會有什麼意義嗎？還是你認為這更像是2017年的事？

I think we've obviously got a little bit careful with disclosure. But I've heard at least one other equipment company say what I'm about to say, which is the vast majority of spending is related to traditional kind of 3D NAND architecture. And I'll leave it at that, if I may.

我認為我們顯然在資訊揭露方面變得更加謹慎了。但我至少聽到另一家設備公司也說過我接下來要說的話，那就是絕大多數支出都與傳統的 3D NAND 架構有關。如果可以的話，我就說到這裡吧。

Thank you.

謝謝。

There is a reason, Wes, that we're saying nonvolatile memory, because a lot of things are beginning to happen.

韋斯，我們之所以強調非揮發性記憶體，是因為很多事情正在改變。

Got it. Thank you.

知道了。謝謝。

Mehdi Hosseini.

邁赫迪·侯賽尼。

Thanks for squeezing me in. I have two follow-up. Martin, your September quarter is historically kind of seasonally down. And with the second half up compared to the first half, is there any quarterly trend we need to be aware? If I just take the midpoint of your shipment guide for the June and go flat from there, I get to mid-single digit growth. But I also want to be aware if there's any seasonality with September quarter.

謝謝你擠出時間陪我。我還有兩個後續問題。馬丁，從歷史數據來看，你九月的業績通常是季節性下滑的。下半年業績較上半年有成長，我們需要注意哪些季度趨勢？如果我直接採用你們六月出貨量指南的中點數值，然後以此速度平穩成長，就能達到個位數中段的成長。但我還想了解九月的季度是否有季節性因素。

I frankly -- I literally never think about seasonality because I don't know what it would mean for our business anymore for all the same reasons that I don't know what cyclicality means anymore. The segments of the industry are trending and tracking differently. This is a very strategic year.

坦白說，我根本不考慮季節性，因為我不知道它對我們的業務意味著什麼，原因和我不知道週期性意味著什麼一樣。產業各細分領域的發展趨勢和軌跡各不相同。今年是非常具有戰略意義的一年。

Best counsel I can give you relative to modeling Lam is what we've said. The long-term financial model is the best calibration for profitability and performance, given WFE. And you've heard us describe an expectation that our second-half revenues are higher than first-half revenues this year. We've got a decent shot at having some upside in shipments as well, second half over first half. That's the best we can offer you at this point.

關於 Lam 的建模，我能給你的最好建議就是我們之前說的那些。考慮到 WFE，長期財務模型是獲利能力和績效的最佳校準。你們也聽到我們說過，我們預計今年下半年的收入將高於上半年的收入。我們很有可能在出貨量方面也取得一些成長，下半年會比上半年有所成長。目前我們只能提供這些。

Good enough. The second follow-up or clarification. You talked about 350,000 to 400,000 wafers per month 3D NAND capacity added. How do you think about the yield impact if three of the four vendors -- or sorry, manufacturers are going through the learning curve? Would that have any material impact on wafer capacity add in 2017 as yields improve?

夠好了。第二次跟進或澄清。您提到每月新增 35 萬至 40 萬片晶圓的 3D NAND 產能。如果四家供應商（或抱歉，是製造商）中有三家正在經歷學習曲線，您認為這會對良率產生什麼影響？隨著良率的提高，這是否會對 2017 年晶圓產能增加產生實質影響？

My presumption is not, but that is an industry answer not a Company answer because we tend -- we like obviously, as many customers as we can have. And we don't have so many. But honestly speaking, I think as an equipment industry we're agnostic to kind of who is spending the money. My presumption is if there's demand for ICs, someone will fill it. And they'll need to buy equipment to make it. There are five companies participating in the nonvolatile memory ramp, as best I know, on a significant scale. And they're competing with intensity to get their fair share. We're supporting all of them in the exercise of their objectives. But if one yields faster or slower, presumably it nets itself out for the industry.

我的假設並非如此，但這只是行業的回答，而不是公司的回答，因為我們傾向於——顯然，我們希望擁有盡可能多的客戶。我們沒有那麼多。但說實話，我認為作為設備產業，我們並不在乎是誰在花錢。我的推測是，如果有對積體電路卡的需求，就會有人來填補空缺。而且他們還需要購買設備來生產。據我所知，目前有五家公司大規模參與非揮發性記憶體的量產。他們正在激烈競爭，爭取自己應得的份額。我們支持他們所有人實現各自的目標。但如果其中一種產量成長更快或更慢，那麼對整個產業來說，最終結果可能是一樣的。

Okay. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, this does conclude our Q&A portion of the call. I will return the floor to our speaker for closing comments.

女士們、先生們，本次電話會議的問答環節到此結束。我將把發言權交還給我們的發言人，請他作總結發言。

Yes. Thank you, operator. That is all the time we have today. Thank you for your participation. We look forward to updating again you next quarter. Thank you.

是的。謝謝接線生。今天時間就到這裡了。感謝您的參與。我們期待下季再次向您報告最新情況。謝謝。

This does conclude today's program. Thanks for your participation. You may now disconnect. Have a great day.

今天的節目到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。祝你有美好的一天。