科林研發 (LRCX) 2016 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Lam Research Corporation December 2015 earnings conference call. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Satya Kumar, Vice President of Investor Relations. You may begin.

大家好，歡迎參加 Lam Research Corporation 2015 年 12 月的財報電話會議。此時，我謹將會議交給投資人關係副總裁薩蒂亞‧庫馬爾先生。你可以開始了。

Okay, thank you, Aaron. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to the Lam Research quarterly conference call. With me today are Martin Anstice, President and Chief Executive Officer, and Doug Bettinger, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

好的，謝謝你，亞倫。各位下午好，歡迎參加 Lam Research 的季度電話會議。今天陪同我的是總裁兼執行長馬丁·安斯蒂斯，以及執行副總裁兼財務長道格·貝廷格。

During today's call, we will share our outlook on the business environment, review our financial results for the December 2015 quarter, our outlook for the March 2016 quarter, and provide an update on a planned business combination with KLA-Tencor. The press release detailing our financial results was distributed a little after 1 PM Pacific Time this afternoon.

在今天的電話會議上，我們將分享我們對商業環境的展望，回顧我們 2015 年 12 月季度的財務業績，展望 2016 年 3 月季度，並提供有關與 KLA-Tencor 計劃進行的業務合併的最新資訊。詳細介紹我們財務表現的新聞稿於今天下午太平洋時間下午1點剛過發布。

It can also be found on the investor relations section of the Company's website, along with the presentation slides that accompany today's call. Today's presentation and Q&A will include statements about our expectations and beliefs regarding certain future outcomes, including the time and the parties' ability to close the proposed business combination with KLA-Tencor and achieve the anticipated benefits, technological advances and synergies to be realized as part of the proposed transaction, and the anticipated structures of future combined operations.

也可以在公司網站的投資者關係部分找到，以及今天電話會議的簡報。今天的演示和問答環節將包括我們對某些未來結果的預期和信念的聲明，包括完成與 KLA-Tencor 的擬議業務合併所需的時間和各方的能力，以及作為擬議交易的一部分將實現的預期收益、技術進步和協同效應，以及未來合併運營的預期結構。

A comprehensive list of forward-looking topics that we expect to cover is shown on the slide deck accompanying my remarks. All statements made that are not historical in fact are forward-looking statements based on current information and are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially.

我的發言稿附帶的幻燈片中列出了我們預計將涵蓋的前瞻性主題的完整清單。所有非歷史事實的陳述實際上都是基於當前資訊的前瞻性陳述，並受風險和不確定性的影響，這些風險和不確定性可能導致實際結果與預期結果有重大差異。

We encourage you to review the risk factor disclosures in our public filings, including our 10-K and 10-Q. The Company undertakes no obligation to update forward-looking statements.

我們建議您查看我們在公開文件中揭露的風險因素，包括我們的 10-K 和 10-Q 表格。本公司不承擔更新前瞻性聲明的義務。

Today's discussion of our financial results will be presented on a non-GAAP financial basis unless otherwise specified. A detailed reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP results can be found in today's earnings press release.

除非另有說明，我們今天對財務表現的討論將以非GAAP財務報表為基礎。今天的盈利新聞稿中提供了 GAAP 和非 GAAP 結果之間的詳細調整表。

This call is scheduled to last until 3 PM Pacific Time, and as always, we ask that you limit your questions to one per firm, with a very brief follow up so we can accommodate as many questions as possible. As a reminder, a webcast replay of this call will be available later this afternoon on our website.

本次電話會議預計將持續到太平洋時間下午 3 點。像往常一樣，我們要求您每家公司只提一個問題，並儘量簡短地跟進，以便我們可以回答盡可能多的問題。再次提醒，本次電話會議的網路直播回放將於今天下午稍晚在我們的網站上提供。

With that, I will hand the call over to Martin.

接下來，我會把電話交給馬丁。

Thank you, Satya, and thank you all for joining us today. I will first begin with a review of our calendar 2015 accomplishments, including comments on their relevance to the growth outperformance opportunities for the Company, then offer a perspective on wafer fab equipment spending in 2016 as well as the trends driving our longer-term favorable outlook, concluding my prepared comments with a progress update on our planned business combination with KLA-Tencor. Doug will then review our financial and operational performance as well as provide guidance for the March 2016 quarter.

謝謝你，薩蒂亞，也謝謝今天所有到場的各位。首先，我將回顧我們 2015 年的成就，並就這些成就與公司成長超額收益機會的相關性發表評論；然後，我將展望 2016 年晶圓製造設備支出以及推動我們長期良好前景的趨勢；最後，我將介紹我們與 KLA-Tencor 計劃的業務合併的最新進展。道格隨後將審查我們的財務和營運業績，並為 2016 年 3 月季度提供指導。

2015 was another record year for Lam Research, augmented by our plan to combine with KLA-Tencor this year. A partnership that we believe will create an unmatched capability for the global semiconductor industry by uniting best-in-class process technologies with process control, creating a new paradigm in process enablement, accelerating innovation for the benefit of our customers. Last year, for the first time in our history, we exceeded $6 in earnings per share, grew shipments by 25%, to nearly $6 billion, reported record revenues of $5.9 billion, with operating profits expanding at greater than 1.5 times revenues, demonstrating, we believe, sustainable leverage in our business model. In this context in 2015, we achieved record output from our factories, while improving our on-time delivery performance and shortening cycle time for installations. A very solid operational contribution.

2015 年是 Lam Research 另一個創紀錄的年份，這要歸功於我們今年與 KLA-Tencor 合併的計畫。我們相信，此次合作將把一流的製程技術與製程控制相結合，為全球半導體產業創造無與倫比的能力，從而在製程賦能方面創造新的範式，加速創新，造福我們的客戶。去年，我們歷史上首次實現了每股收益超過 6 美元，出貨量增長了 25%，達到近 60 億美元，營收創下 59 億美元的紀錄，營業利潤增長超過營收的 1.5 倍，我們相信，這表明我們的商業模式具有可持續的槓桿作用。在這種背景下，2015 年，我們的工廠產量創下歷史新高，同時提高了準時交貨率，並縮短了安裝週期。非常紮實的營運貢獻。

2015 was the third consecutive calendar year in which we have significantly outgrown the industry. Over the last three years, we have grown our shipments at an annualized rate of more than 22%, well in excess of WFE CapEx growth of 6% in the same period. Our success is always predicated on customer trust and the opportunity customers are willing to provide us. It is also the result of our vision, strategy, and operational execution to bring a capability in leading-edge process technologies to bear on the most fundamental technology inflections that are driving an increasing proportion of wafer fab equipment spending.

2015年是我們連續第三年顯著超越行業平均。過去三年，我們的出貨量年平均成長率超過 22%，遠超過同期 WFE 資本支出 6% 的成長率。我們的成功始終建立在客戶的信任和客戶願意給予我們的機會之上。這也是我們願景、策略和營運執行的結果，我們將領先的製程技術能力應用於推動晶圓製造設備支出不斷增長的最根本的技術變革。

In short, calendar 2015 was a year we are very proud of. Many worked extremely hard, but the increased strategic relevance of Lam and the demonstrated results make that effort rewarding. I would like to take this opportunity to express my sincere appreciation to all of our employees across every function and in every location, without whom, as a collective group, these accomplishments would not have been possible.

總之，2015 年是我們非常引以為傲的一年。許多人付出了巨大的努力，但林氏戰略地位的提升和所取得的成果，使得他們的努力得到了回報。我想藉此機會向我們所有部門、所有地區的全體員工表達我誠摯的感謝，沒有大家的共同努力，這些成就是不可能達成的。

The culture and values of Lam and a priority on continued learning and development remain a foundation of competitive differentiation. We recommit to that as even stronger aspiration in 2016.

Lam 的企業文化和價值觀，以及對持續學習和發展的重視，仍然是其競爭優勢的基礎。我們在2016年重申這一目標，並將其視為更強烈的願景。

We estimate that the industry grew wafer fab equipment spending by approximately 4% to $33 billion in 2015.

我們估計，2015 年晶圓製造設備產業的支出成長了約 4%，達到 330 億美元。

Marginally stronger than earlier expectations, our SAM share of WFE expanded to slightly more than 30% in 2015, driven by the technology inflections including the industry conversion to 3D device architecture in non-volatile memory and also in logic, increased use of multi-patterning in DRAM and logic applications, and increased adoption of advanced packaging integration schemes. Our demonstrated strength in these extremely complex technology and cost-sensitive process flows allowed us to grow Lam's share of our SAM to the mid-to-high 40% range in 2015.

2015 年，我們的 SAM 在 WFE 中的份額略高於預期，增長至略高於 30%，這主要得益於技術變革，包括非易失性存儲器和邏輯器件向 3D 器件架構的行業轉型、DRAM 和邏輯應用中多重圖案化的增加以及先進封裝集成方案的日益先進。我們在這些極其複雜的技術和成本敏感的工藝流程中展現出的實力，使得 Lam 在 2015 年的 SAM 份額增長到了 40% 到 40% 的中高水平。

Multiple patterning has become a key driver in enabling our customers' scaling plans. Our Vector ALD and our Hydra conductor etch technology have enabled scaling and proactively positioned reductions in the cost of multiple patterning through variability reduction and productivity improvements.

多種模式已成為我們客戶實現擴展計畫的關鍵驅動因素。我們的向量原子層沉積 (ALD) 和 Hydra 導體蝕刻技術實現了規模化，並透過減少變異性和提高生產率，主動降低了多重圖案化的成本。

We solidified our number-one position in 3D NAND for deposition and etch with differentiated products such as the high-productivity Vector Strata and industry-leading ALTUS and Flex products, which address the high aspect ratio challenges of advanced memory applications.

我們憑藉高產能的 Vector Strata 和業界領先的 ALTUS 和 Flex 產品等差異化產品，鞏固了我們在 3D NAND 沉積和蝕刻領域的領先地位，這些產品解決了先進記憶體應用中高縱橫比的挑戰。

In the multi patterning segment we saw an unprecedented ramp for our Kiyo with Hydra technology for conductor etch, where we have increased our installed base by more than a factor of 5 in the last 12 months. The Hydra conductor etch process control technology has delivered improved CD uniformity by approximately 50% from the prior baseline.

在多重圖案化領域，我們的 Kiyo 和 Hydra 技術在導體蝕刻方面取得了前所未有的成長，在過去的 12 個月中，我們的裝置量增加了 5 倍以上。Hydra 導體蝕刻製程控制技術使 CD 均勻性比先前的基準提高了約 50%。

We saw very strong momentum for our Vector ALD products, where we doubled our shipments for multi-patterning applications enabled by best-in-class within-wafer, wafer-to-wafer film thickness, and CD variation control. The Vector ALD platform has improved system productivity by up to 50% in the year, delivering the lowest cost of ownership available in the industry currently.

我們的向量 ALD 產品發展勢頭強勁，在晶圓內、晶圓間薄膜厚度和 CD 變化控制方面，我們實現了多重圖案化應用出貨量的翻倍。Vector ALD 平台在一年內將系統生產力提高了 50%，實現了目前業界最低的擁有成本。

All market segments combined, the headline for Lam deposition was an approximate 2 percentage point market share gain in the year on a very strong SAM expansion.

綜合所有市場細分，Lam 沉積的頭條新聞是，在 SAM 的強勁擴張下，市場份額在一年內增長了約 2 個百分點。

In 2015, founded on the depth of etch technical competency and capability at Lam and supplemented by some positive customer mix, we achieved the largest expansion of market share in over five years in our etch business, growing our total share by over 5 percentage points to the high-50% level. We are well on track towards delivering the longer-term goal that we communicated at our Analyst Day in July last year.

2015 年，憑藉 Lam 深厚的蝕刻技術能力和實力，以及積極的客戶組合，我們在蝕刻業務中實現了五年多來最大的市場份額擴張，總份額增長超過 5 個百分點，達到 50% 以上。我們正朝著實現去年7月分析師日上提出的長期目標穩步前進。

In a perpetually competitive industry segment, we had a truly great year, maintaining our leading HVM position in conductor etch and making substantial gains in dielectric etch. In the conductor segment, we saw a fast ramp of our Kiyo F Series product at multiple DRAM and 3D NAND customers. We were particularly pleased with the substantial market share gains we had in dielectric etch in 2015, with our Flex-F and G-series product families at multiple memory customers with increased potential and momentum emerging also in logic. We remain focused on delivering critical etch technologies for high aspect ratio etch as our customers scale the DRAM capacitor and the film-stack height in 3D non-volatile memory structures.

在競爭激烈的行業領域，我們度過了非常成功的一年，保持了在導體蝕刻領域的高產量製造領先地位，並在介質蝕刻領域取得了實質進展。在導體領域，我們看到我們的 Kiyo F 系列產品在多家 DRAM 和 3D NAND 客戶中迅速普及。2015 年，我們在介質蝕刻領域取得了巨大的市佔率成長，我們對此感到特別高興。我們的 Flex-F 和 G 系列產品系列在多家記憶體客戶中獲得了成功，並且在邏輯領域也展現了更大的潛力和發展勢頭。我們將繼續專注於提供高縱橫比蝕刻的關鍵蝕刻技術，以滿足客戶在 3D 非揮發性儲存結構中擴展 DRAM 電容器和薄膜堆疊高度的需求。

In our clean business, 2015 was a year of solid execution and some strategic repositioning. We recorded our largest increase in single wafer clean market share in any prior year, with a mid-single-digit percentage gain. Our strategic planning process ratified again, the increasing strategic relevance of clean within our product portfolio. It also provided a framework for the streamlining actions we reported to you late last year. We enter 2016 energized about a future of sustainable, profitable growth. Excited about the increasing breadth of the Lam wet and dry technology product portfolio, targeted at supporting traditional clean and increasingly complex surface preparation and other yield-enhancing applications.

在我們的清潔業務領域，2015 年是穩步執行和進行一些策略調整的一年。我們在單晶圓清洗市場份額方面取得了歷年來最大的成長，實現了中等個位數百分比的成長。我們的策略規劃流程再次證實了清潔在我們產品組合中日益增長的策略重要性。它也為我們去年底向您報告的精簡措施提供了框架。我們滿懷熱情地邁入2016年，對未來可持續、獲利成長充滿信心。很高興看到 Lam 乾濕技術產品組合的不斷擴展，旨在支援傳統的清潔和日益複雜的表面處理以及其他提高產量的應用。

Providing the foundation for the overall business momentum is the performance of our installed base: a key focus of our customer service business group. Here, we set another record for revenues. This business group is focused on creating collaborative solutions to improve our customers' productivity, also asset utilization, and reduce their risk through the equipment lifecycle with products including advanced predictive services and productivity upgrades. We're also addressing the needs of leading-edge and trailing-edge customers across a variety of wafer sizes and markets through a broader and more capable refurbished tools offering.

為整體業務發展提供基礎的是我們現有客戶群的表現：這是我們客戶服務業務部門的重點。在這裡，我們再次創下了營收紀錄。該業務集團致力於創造協作解決方案，以提高客戶的生產力、資產利用率，並透過先進的預測服務和生產力提升等產品，在設備生命週期內降低客戶的風險。我們也透過更廣泛、更強大的翻新工具產品，滿足各種晶圓尺寸和市場中領先和落後客戶的需求。

2016 has begun with well-publicized volatility and some contraction in growth expectations for the global macro economy, with risks in some emerging markets, but balanced by steady if slow improvements in a number of developed markets. Within this environment, Lam continues to be optimistic that the underlying technology drivers of mobility, cloud and the Internet of Things provide a foundation for an exciting multi-year opportunity for our products and services.

2016 年伊始，全球宏觀經濟出現了眾所周知的波動和成長預期萎縮，一些新興市場面臨風險，但一些已開發市場穩步緩慢地改善，抵消了這些風險。在這種環境下，林先生仍然樂觀地認為，行動性、雲端運算和物聯網等底層技術驅動因素為我們的產品和服務提供了令人興奮的多年發展機會的基礎。

We assume 3D non-volatile memory and new memory technologies adoption are at a tipping point this year, resulting in an accelerated demand for solid-state memory in 2016. We are particularly optimistic in this segment where we see many years of technology visibility and opportunities for Lam to improve the cost and performance roadmaps for our customers.

我們預計今年 3D 非揮發性記憶體和新型記憶體技術的採用將達到臨界點，導致 2016 年對固態記憶體的需求加速成長。我們尤其看好這一領域，因為我們看到了未來多年的技術發展前景，以及 Lam 為客戶改進成本和績效路線圖的機會。

We expect to see double-digit growth in non-volatile memory CapEx in 2016, driven by the need for the industry to convert to 3D capable capacity. Based on our analytics, the equipment industry is scheduled to support the delivery of a 3D capable installed base of between 350,000 to 400,000 wafer starts per month of total capacity by the end of this year, supporting NAND bit growth this year of mid-30%.

我們預計 2016 年非揮發性記憶體資本支出將達到兩位數成長，這是由於產業需要轉型為 3D 儲存容量所致。根據我們的分析，設備產業計劃在今年年底，每月交付 35 萬至 40 萬片晶圓的 3D 晶圓產能，從而支援今年 NAND 位元成長 30% 左右。

Rational industry spending is a common theme in a consolidated world. We anticipate meaningfully reduced year-over-year spending in DRAM with customers focusing on 20-nanometer and 1X node migrations to continue to improve their cost competitiveness, supporting industry bit growth in the mid-20% range.

在高度一體化的世界中，合理的行業支出是一個普遍現象。我們預計，隨著客戶專注於 20 奈米和 1X 節點遷移以繼續提高成本競爭力，DRAM 的年度支出將大幅減少，從而支持產業比特成長達到 20% 左右。

On a combined basis, we expect overall memory CapEx at the $15 billion level, plus or minus $1 billion.

綜合來看，我們預期整體記憶體資本支出將達到 150 億美元，上下浮動 10 億美元。

From a foundry and logic CapEx standpoint, we continue to see an increase in projected spending for 10-nanometer investments, as well as 28-nanometer and above investments, across a number of customers. Since our update in October, we have seen some reported weakness in end-market demand for high-end smart phones with content continuing to expand however, and in that context we expect to see growth in 14-nanometer wafer demand as more companies ramp products at this node throughout the year. Taken together, we expect foundry and logic spending to be up slightly year over year at the $17 billion to $18 billion level in 2016.

從晶圓代工和邏輯資本支出角度來看，我們看到許多客戶對 10 奈米投資以及 28 奈米及以上投資的預期支出持續增加。自從我們 10 月的更新以來，我們看到有報告指出高階智慧型手機的終端市場需求有所疲軟，但內容仍在不斷擴展。在這種情況下，我們預計隨著更多公司在今年內加大對該節點產品的生產，14 奈米晶圓的需求將會成長。綜合來看，我們預計 2016 年晶圓代工和邏輯電路支出將比前一年略有成長，達到 170 億至 180 億美元。

As a result of these trends, we expect that 2016 WFE will track to approximately $33 billion, plus or minus $2 billion, which is relatively unchanged from the initial views we provided you in October.

根據這些趨勢，我們預計 2016 年世界食品出口將達到約 330 億美元，上下浮動 20 億美元，這與我們 10 月向您提供的初步預測基本一致。

We are off to a great start this year with broadly positive customer engagements and an anticipated book-to-bill in March comfortably exceeding 1. Based on our current understanding of customer plans, we are very confident that our shipments in the first half of calendar year 2016 will exceed the second half of calendar 2015, and early indications suggest our shipments in the second half of 2016 will grow from this new first-half baseline.

今年開局良好，客戶互動普遍積極，預計 3 月的訂單出貨比將輕鬆超過 1。根據我們目前對客戶計劃的了解，我們非常有信心 2016 年上半年的出貨量將超過 2015 年下半年，而且初步跡象表明，2016 年下半年的出貨量將在此新的上半年基準基礎上增長。

As a closing headline, December was our weakest shipment quarter in a record-setting calendar 2015 year. We anticipate the March quarter as our weakest in the 2016 year, which overall is anticipated to be stronger for Lam than 2015.

最後要指出的是，2015 年是創紀錄的一年中，我們 12 月的出貨量最低的一個季度。我們預計 2016 年 3 月季度將是全年最弱的一季度，但總體而言，預計 Lam 的業績將強於 2015 年。

I will now update our progress towards completing our planned combination with KLA-Tencor and provide an early glimpse of our integration planning.

接下來，我將報告我們在完成與 KLA-Tencor 的計劃合併方面取得的進展，並初步介紹我們的整合計劃。

We are working closely with regulatory agencies across several global regions to obtain the necessary approvals for the closing of this transaction. We remain confident that we can secure approvals to complete the transaction in mid-2016. Any updates to the developments on the regulatory front will be made through relevant filings or press releases that will be broadly disseminated to investors. We will not comment further on this subject in this meeting today.

我們正與多個全球地區的監管機構密切合作，以獲得完成此交易所需的必要批准。我們仍有信心在 2016 年年中獲得批准，完成交易。監管方面的最新進展將透過相關文件或新聞稿發布，並廣泛傳播給投資者。今天會議上，我們將不再就此議題發表任何評論。

We are in the early stages of planning for the successful integration of Lam and KLA and the process that will enable us to realize the full strategic and financial potential of the combination while continuing to operate as two stand-alone companies with compelling products, technologies, and people. We formed an integration planning team and we plan to leverage our experience from successfully integrating Lam with Novellus. A team with strong representation from both companies is established and already quite active, with a primary focus to develop a comprehensive understanding of what we both do and exactly how we do it. At a more personal level, I continue to be very pleased with the dialogue with customers around the world, who without exception, look to the value proposition available of enhanced innovation from this business combination. As has been clear from our public filings related to the merger, we intend to continue the existing KLA-Tencor supply and support relationship with the broad industry ecosystem of our customers and suppliers to our customers both. We will be ready for day-one execution I have no doubt; based on numerous interactions worldwide, I am delighted that we have an engineering and technology community in both companies who see more opportunity each and every day to deliver a more compelling value together than is possible separately. Excitement is definitely building, our deal hypothesis being validated through our planning.

我們目前正處於規劃 Lam 和 KLA 成功整合的早期階段，以及實現合併後公司充分策略和財務潛力的進程，同時繼續作為兩家擁有強大產品、技術和人才的獨立公司運作。我們組建了整合規劃團隊，並計劃利用我們在成功整合 Lam 和 Novellus 方面累積的經驗。由兩家公司代表組成的強大團隊已經成立，並且非常活躍，其主要目標是全面了解我們雙方的業務內容以及我們具體是如何開展工作的。就我個人而言，我對與世界各地客戶的對話感到非常滿意，他們無一例外地都看好此次業務合併所帶來的增強創新價值。正如我們在與合併相關的公開文件中明確指出的那樣，我們打算繼續與我們的客戶和客戶的供應商建立現有的 KLA-Tencor 供應和支援關係。我毫不懷疑我們將做好第一天執行的準備；基於與世界各地眾多人士的交流，我很高興我們兩家公司都擁有一個工程和技術團隊，他們每天都看到更多機會，可以攜手創造比各自單獨行動更具吸引力的價值。興奮之情與日俱增，我們的計畫也驗證了我們的交易假設。

While 2015 was a record year for Lam Research, we believe that 2016 holds even more promise. With the current quarter momentum in our business, our opportunity for continued outperformance and the anticipated creation of an even stronger and more strategically relevant company in partnership with KLA, we are positioning Lam for significant performance improvements now and over the long term.

儘管 2015 年是 Lam Research 創紀錄的一年，但我們相信 2016 年更有希望。憑藉本季業務發展勢頭、持續超越市場表現的機會，以及與 KLA 合作打造更強大、更具戰略意義的公司，我們正在為 Lam 實現當前和長期的重大業績提升做好準備。

In closing, I would like to express my thanks again to our customers for their trust and partnership, employees for our differentiated culture and performance, suppliers for their support and commitment, and investors for their confidence and continued interest in Lam. Let me now turn the call over to Doug who will provide a review of our financial performance and our March quarter outlook.

最後，我要再次感謝客戶的信任與合作，感謝員工們為我們創造的獨特文化與卓越業績，感謝供應商的支持與承諾，感謝投資人對林氏的信心與持續關注。現在我將把電話交給道格，他將介紹我們的財務表現和三月季度的展望。

Great. Thanks, Martin, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today on what I know was a busy earnings day. We ended calendar year 2015 with strong performance, meeting or exceeding the midpoint of our guidance for the December quarter on all financial metrics. Earnings per share came in above the high end of our guidance range. In addition to the numerous milestones Martin mentioned during his prepared remarks, during calendar year 2015, we generated over $1.2 billion in cash from operations, which was an increase of more than 45% compared to calendar year 2014. And we returned more than $410 million to our shareholders through stock repurchases and dividends. We're very pleased with what we've achieved this quarter as well as this calendar year.

偉大的。謝謝馬丁，也謝謝大家今天能來參加我們的財報發表會，我知道今天對大家來說都是非常忙碌的一天。我們在 2015 年末取得了強勁的業績，所有財務指標均達到或超過了我們對 12 月季度業績預期的中位數。每股收益高於我們預期範圍的上限。除了馬丁在事先準備好的演講中提到的眾多里程碑之外，在 2015 年日曆年中，我們從經營活動中產生了超過 12 億美元的現金，比 2014 年日曆年增長了 45% 以上。我們透過股票回購和分紅向股東返還了超過 4.1 億美元。我們對本季以及本年度所取得的成績都非常滿意。

Shipments continued at a healthy level in the December quarter, totaling $1.288 billion, which was a little bit above the midpoint of our guidance.

12 月季度出貨量持續維持健康水平，總計 12.88 億美元，略高於我們預期的中位數。

As we anticipated, memory shipments decreased in the quarter, with the combined memory segment representing 65% of total system shipments, and that compares with 72% in the prior quarter. DRAM shipments made up 42% of the system shipments, which was up from 32% in the previous quarter. DRAM investments continue to be largely focused on 20-nanometer conversions. Customers continued to ramp NAND and other nonvolatile technologies, which made up 23% of the system shipments, and this was down from the 40% level that we saw in the September quarter. NAND investments were again primarily directed towards deployment of 3D NAND capacity.

正如我們預期的那樣，本季記憶體出貨量有所下降，記憶體部分佔系統總出貨量的 65%，而上一季則是 72%。DRAM 出貨量佔系統出貨量的 42%，高於上一季的 32%。DRAM投資仍主要集中在20奈米製程的轉換上。客戶繼續增加對 NAND 和其他非揮發性技術的投入，這些技術佔系統出貨量的 23%，低於 9 月季度的 40%。NAND投資再次主要集中在部署3D NAND容量。

December quarter foundry shipments were 25% of system shipments, and this was up from 18% in the previous quarter. Foundry spending was broad based, with the combination of 10-nanometer pilot capability, first-generation FinFET capacity, as well as trailing-edge investments. The logic and other segment accounted for 10% of system shipments, which was about the same level as last quarter.

12 月季度晶圓代工出貨量佔系統出貨量的 25%，高於上一季的 18%。晶圓代工支出涵蓋範圍廣泛，包括 10 奈米試點能力、第一代 FinFET 產能以及落後技術投資。邏輯和其他部分佔系統出貨量的 10%，與上一季基本持平。

Revenue in the quarter came in at $1.426 billion, which was a little bit above the midpoint of guidance, and down 11% compared to the record-high level that we saw in the September quarter.

本季營收為 14.26 億美元，略高於預期中位數，但比 9 月創下的歷史新高下降了 11%。

Gross margin came in right at the midpoint of guidance at 45.5%. And as I always mention, you should expect to see some quarter-to-quarter variability in gross margin due to multiple factors such as product mix, customer concentration, as well as overall business volumes. Our financial model continues to be the right tool for you to use to build your models and think about our ongoing financial performance.

毛利率為 45.5%，正好處於預期值的中點。正如我一直提到的，由於產品組合、客戶集中度以及整體業務量等多種因素的影響，毛利率會出現季度間的波動。我們的財務模型仍然是您建立模型和思考我們持續財務表現的正確工具。

Operating expenses in the December quarter declined to $352 million, coming in at 25% of revenue, and this compared with 23% in the September quarter. About 63% of the OpEx spend in the quarter was allocated to R&D, which was around the same ratio we held throughout the calendar year. Funding of strategic R&D programs to continue our technology and productivity leadership is critical to meeting our objectives of growing the Company at a faster pace than the industry. The market share success we're currently enjoying is a result of investments we have made in previous years. We aim to continue that outperformance.

12 月季度的營運支出下降至 3.52 億美元，佔收入的 25%，而 9 月季度為 23%。本季營運支出中約有 63% 用於研發，這與我們全年維持的比例大致相同。為策略研發專案提供資金，以保持我們在技術和生產力方面的領先地位，對於實現公司以比行業更快的速度成長的目標至關重要。我們目前所取得的市佔率成功，是我們前幾年投資的結果。我們的目標是繼續保持這種優異表現。

Operating income in the December quarter was $296 million, down from $380 million in the prior quarter. Operating margin was 20.8%, which was down from 23.8% in September, and a little bit above the midpoint of the guided range. Operating income and operating margin declined sequentially as a result of the lower revenues in the period.

12 月季度的營業收入為 2.96 億美元，低於上一季的 3.8 億美元。營業利益率為 20.8%，低於 9 月的 23.8%，略高於預期範圍的中點。由於本期收入下降，營業收入和營業利潤率較上季下降。

Our tax rate for the quarter was approximately 7%, down compared to 14% last quarter. The tax rate was lower primarily due to the permanent extension of the R&D tax credit in the United States. A tax rate of low- to mid-teens for the remainder of 2016 would be a reasonable number for you to include in your models.

本季我們的稅率約為7%，低於上季的14%。稅率降低主要是由於美國永久延長了研發稅收抵免政策。對您而言，2016 年剩餘時間的稅率在十幾到二十幾個百分點之間是一個合理的數字，可以將其納入您的模型中。

Based on a share count of about 172 million shares, earnings per share for the December quarter were $1.57. This was above the high end of our guided range due to the favorable tax rate in the quarter as well as the higher revenue. The share count includes dilution from the 2016 and 2041 convertible notes, with a total dilutive impact of about 11 million shares on a non-GAAP basis. Dilution schedules for the 2016, 2018 and 2041 convertible notes are available on our investor relations website for your reference.

根據約 1.72 億股的股數計算，12 月季度的每股收益為 1.57 美元。由於本季稅率優惠以及收入較高，這一數字高於我們預期範圍的上限。股份數量包括 2016 年和 2041 年可轉換票據的稀釋，以非 GAAP 準則計算，總稀釋影響約為 1,100 萬股。2016 年、2018 年和 2041 年可轉換債券的稀釋時間表已發佈在我們的投資者關係網站上，供您參考。

In the quarter, we returned $48 million in dividend distributions to our shareholders. We did not repurchase any shares in the December quarter as we have temporarily suspended share repurchases in anticipation of the business combination with KLA-Tencor.

本季度，我們向股東派發了 4,800 萬美元的股息。由於我們已暫時中止股票回購，以期與 KLA-Tencor 進行業務合併，因此我們在 12 月季度沒有回購任何股票。

Let me now move to the balance sheet. Cash generation was strong again in the quarter with cash from operations coming in at $295 million. During the quarter cash and short-term investments including restricted cash increased to $4.7 billion, up from $4.5 billion in September. Days sales outstanding increased to 70 days versus 62 days last quarter. The increase in DSO was due to the timing of shipments within the quarter, with shipments being more biased towards the back half of the period. Inventory turns remained strong at 3.6 times.

現在讓我來看資產負債表。本季現金流依然強勁，經營活動產生的現金流為 2.95 億美元。本季現金及短期投資（包括受限現金）增至 47 億美元，高於 9 月的 45 億美元。應收帳款週轉天數從上季的 62 天增加到 70 天。DSO 的增加是由於季度內發貨時間的安排，發貨更多地集中在季度的後半段。庫存週轉率保持強勁，達到 3.6 次。

Deferred revenues at the end of quarter were $395 million, which was down from last quarter. And I just point out this number excludes $109 million from shipments to customers in Japan, which will revenue in future quarters. I would like to remind you that those Japan shipments remain as inventory carried at cost on our balance sheet.

本季末遞延營收為 3.95 億美元，低於上一季。我還要指出，這個數字不包括向日本客戶發貨的 1.09 億美元，這部分收入將在未來幾季計入。我想提醒各位，這些從日本出貨的貨物仍作為庫存，以成本價計入我們的資產負債表。

Company non-cash expenses during the quarter included the following: $33 million for equity comp, $39 million for amortization, and $33 million for depreciation.

本季公司非現金支出包括：股權補償 3,300 萬美元，攤提 3,900 萬美元，折舊 3,300 萬美元。

Capital expenditures were $28 million, which was down from $49 million in the September quarter. CapEx can sometimes be a lumpy number as you saw in December. CapEx for the year came in at $173 million.

資本支出為 2800 萬美元，低於 9 月季度的 4900 萬美元。資本支出有時可能會出現波動，就像你在 12 月看到的那樣。該年度資本支出為 1.73 億美元。

We ended the quarter with approximately 7,300 regular full-time employees. I?d point out that we have been relatively flat headcount wise for the last two quarters.

本季末，我們約有7,300名正式全職員工。我想指出的是，過去兩季我們的員工人數基本上保持穩定。

Entering 2016, we continue to be pleased with the momentum in our business and the progress we're making towards our targeted financial model. For the March quarter, our non-GAAP guidance is as follows.

進入 2016 年，我們對公司業務的發展勢頭以及在實現目標財務模式方面取得的進展感到滿意。對於三月的季度，我們的非GAAP業績指引如下。

We expect shipment growth to $1.43 billion, plus or minus $75 million. We expect revenue of $1.3 billion, plus or minus $75 million. This lower revenue for March is largely consistent with our December shipments. We expect gross margin of 44%, plus or minus 1 percentage point. The margin decline in March is due to both customer as well as product mix. I expect margin to improve from this level as we go through 2016. We forecast operating margins of 17%, plus or minus 1 percentage point. And finally, we're forecasting earnings per share of $1.07, plus or minus $0.10, based on a share count of approximately 172.5 million shares.

我們預計出貨量將成長至 14.3 億美元，上下浮動 7,500 萬美元。我們預計營收為 13 億美元，上下浮動 7,500 萬美元。3月份較低的收入與我們12月份的出貨情況基本一致。我們預期毛利率為 44%，上下浮動 1 個百分點。3月份利潤率下降是由於客戶群和產品組合兩方面原因造成的。我預計隨著2016年的推進，利潤率將從目前的水準有所提高。我們預測營業利益率為 17%，上下浮動 1 個百分點。最後，我們根據約 1.725 億股的股票數量，預測每股收益為 1.07 美元，上下浮動 0.10 美元。

In the outlook for the Company, we are optimistic in the trajectory of demand for our products and services. We expect shipments and revenue in the June quarter will be stronger than in the March quarter. With the anticipated strength in shipments, we expect to grow our deferred revenue balances in the first half of 2016. As we sit here today, I expect the second half of the year will have a stronger top line than the first half due to investments in leading-edge foundry and logic.

對公司前景，我們對產品和服務的需求軌跡持樂觀態度。我們預計六月季度的出貨量和收入將強於三月季度。由於預計出貨量將維持強勁成長，我們預計 2016 年上半年遞延收入餘額將有所成長。就目前情況來看，由於對尖端晶圓代工和邏輯電路的投資，我預計下半年的營收將比上半年更加強勁。

That concludes my prepared remarks. Operator, please open the call for questions.

我的發言稿到此結束。接線員，請開啟提問環節。

Certainly.

當然。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

And we will take our first question from Harlan Sur, JPMorgan --. Your line is open.

接下來，我們將回答來自摩根大通的哈蘭‧蘇爾提出的第一個問題。您的線路已開通。

Hello, good afternoon, thank you, and congratulations on the solid quarterly execution. Within the team's flattish WFE outlook for 2016 and your view on the positive trajectory of your business this year maybe you can just give us a sense DRAM, NAND, logic and foundry what the bias on customer spending trends look like first half versus second half.

您好，下午好，謝謝，並祝賀您本季業績出色。鑑於團隊對 2016 年 WFE 業務前景持平的看法，以及您對今年業務積極發展軌蹟的看法，您能否簡要介紹一下 DRAM、NAND、邏輯和代工業務，上半年和下半年客戶支出趨勢的偏差情況？

I assume for example 3-D and 28 nm maybe strong first half with 10 nm and 1X DRAM maybe strong in the second half, but wanted to get your views.

例如，我假設 3D 和 28 奈米製程可能在前半年表現強勁，而 10 奈米和 1X DRAM 可能在後半年表現強勁，但我想聽聽你們的看法。

Yes, thank you for your comments at the beginning there, Harlan. Obviously we're at the beginning of the year so lots to learn.

是的，謝謝你一開始的評論，哈蘭。顯然，現在才年初，還有很多東西要學。

But our analytics today would cause us to think that year over year, so 2015 to 2016, the memory investment level is maybe down by $1 billion and the foundry is up by about $1 billion and then logic and other are kind of flattish. So there's a plus or minus with each one of those, so that's a kind of segment composition.

但根據我們目前的分析，我們認為從 2015 年到 2016 年，記憶體投資水準可能會下降 10 億美元，而代工成本可能會上升 10 億美元左右，邏輯和其他方面的投資則基本持平。所以每一種都有優點或缺點，這就是一種分段構成。

Our sense of first half, second half WFE - we're currently modeling a 47%, 48%, 53%, 52% type of profile. So overall a stronger second half than first-half.

我們對上半年、下半年 WFE 的理解——我們目前正在模擬 47%、48%、53%、52% 類型的概況。所以整體來說，下半場比上半場表現更好。

DRAM, foundry and microprocessors all second-half stronger than first half, and NAND, to your point, slightly stronger in the first half of the year. And I would say that the upside, to the extent there's upside in the first half, second half split that I've just characterized with NAND is all defined around the performance of devices and then momentum in end SSD markets and so on and so forth.

DRAM、晶圓代工和微處理器下半年的表現都強於上半年，而NAND正如你所說，上半年的表現略好一些。而且我認為，我剛才用 NAND 描述的前半年和後半年的漲幅，完全取決於設備的性能，以及 SSD 終端市場的勢頭等等。

So that's the summary of our modeling at this point in the year.

以上就是我們今年迄今的建模總結。

Great, thanks for the insights there. And as you mentioned, it seems like legacy 28 nm is a pretty resilient note. There's still a lot of design starts going on in this node. I think UMC just reported last night their doubling their CapEx spend this year primarily for 28 nm. Hearing the same thing from some of the other China domestic manufacturers.

太好了，謝謝你的見解。正如您所提到的，傳統的 28 奈米製程似乎相當耐用。這個節點上還有很多設計工作正在進行中。我認為聯電昨晚剛剛宣布，他們今年的資本支出將翻一番，主要用於 28 奈米製程。我也從其他一些中國國內製造商那裡聽到了同樣的說法。

How much of a driver of the foundry outlook this year is from some of these legacy nodes?

今年晶圓代工產業的前景在多大程度上受到這些傳統節點的影響？

It's not insignificant for sure. There is a healthy investment at above 28 nm and I would say it is almost equal to the same level of wafer starts that we saw added in 2015. It has a slightly different composition.

這絕非微不足道。28 奈米以上的技術投入相當可觀，我認為其晶圓開工量幾乎與 2015 年新增的晶圓開工量持平。它的成分略有不同。

It's relatively broad-based so there's two to three customers at almost every foundry node and there's a capital intensity at the 14 nm, 16 nm and 10 nm technology nodes obviously that make those investments relatively more expensive. But certainly there is a decent chunk of foundry wafer fabrication equipment spending that is 28 nm and above.

它的覆蓋範圍比較廣，幾乎每個晶圓代工節點都有兩到三個客戶，而且 14 奈米、16 奈米和 10 奈米技術節點的資本密集度顯然較高，這使得這些投資相對來說更昂貴。但可以肯定的是，晶圓製造設備支出中有相當一部分是 28 奈米以上的製程。

And we can take our next question from Romit Shah with Nomura. Your line is open.

接下來，我們可以聽聽野村證券的羅米特·沙阿提出的問題。您的線路已開通。

Yes, thank you and let me echo my congratulations on a very solid 2015. Martin, you're under an environment that you characterized kind of flattish WFE for this year, based on your comments I'm sort of concluding that the company shipments can grow, presumably revenues would grow, but as you think about operating expenses and some of the other below the line items, do you think it is reasonable to assume the company can grow earnings per share?

是的，謝謝，也請容許我再次恭喜你們在2015年取得了非常輝煌的成績。Martin，你把今年的WFE（全球財務效率）描述為一個略顯平淡的環境。根據你的評論，我大致認為公司出貨量可以成長，營收大概也會成長。但是，考慮到營運費用和其他一些未列明的項目，你認為假設公司每股盈餘能夠成長是合理的嗎？

Yes, I think we've got a pretty clear statement of modeling on that. Our long term financial model that we used at Semicon West is a great reference point for you. It's almost replicated in the S4 filing.

是的，我認為我們已經對此有了相當清晰的建模說明。我們在 Semicon West 上使用的長期財務模型對你們來說是一個很好的參考。S4 文件中的內容幾乎完全一致。

There's 22% operating income references, there's growth references, there's SAM expansion references, and the headline is the inflection story - which is the catalyst for SAM expansion - continues to progress 2015 into 2016 and all the way through 2018. Just to remind you our estimate of inflection-based spending as a percentage of WFE in the year just completed was in the low 30% range and by the time we hit 2018 our estimate is 55% or slightly higher.

文中提到了 22% 的營業收入成長、成長、SAM 擴張等因素，而最引人注目的是轉折點——SAM 擴張的催化劑——這一趨勢從 2015 年持續到 2016 年，並一直延續到 2018 年。提醒一下，我們估計，在剛剛過去的一年中，基於拐點的支出佔 WFE 的百分比在 30% 左右，而到 2018 年，我們的估計將達到 55% 或略高一些。

So, the SAM expansion story, the targeted market share story, certainly have us optimistic that we are continuing to grow the company in an environment of flat WFE and the economics that we're targeting are exactly as we've communicated in our long term financial model. So I think the answer to your question is yes.

因此，SAM 擴張的故事，以及目標市場份額的故事，確實讓我們樂觀地認為，在 WFE 持平的環境下，我們將繼續發展公司，而且我們所追求的經濟效益也與我們在長期財務模型中傳達的信息完全一致。所以我認為你問題的答案是肯定的。

Okay that's terrific. And then as a follow-up, Doug, just on gross margins for Q1, you mentioned that customer and product mix were negatively impacting gross margin. Can you just give us a little bit more color on the specifics there?

太好了。然後，Doug，作為後續問題，關於第一季的毛利率，你提到客戶和產品組合對毛利率產生了負面影響。能再詳細解釋一下具體情況嗎？

Probably not much more. You see variability, if you go back in December we were 45.5%, in you back to the quarter before we were [46.5%] and now we?re seeing 44% ?(corrected by company after the call)? You get lots of puts and takes when different customer mix, customer concentration, tool mix. Not every tool we sell is the same profitability level and overall business volume is part of this, too. So all of it is contributing, Romit. And as I said in my scripted remarks I expect this to be the low mark in terms of gross margin percentage for the company in 2016.

可能不會有太多了。你可以看到波動，如果你回顧去年12月的情況，當時是45.5%，再往前一個季度是46.5%，而現在我們看到的是44%（公司在電話會議後進行了更正）。當顧客組合、顧客集中度、工具組合改變時，你會遇到許多進出的情況。並非我們銷售的每件工具都能達到相同的獲利水平，整體業務量也是影響獲利能力的因素。所以這一切都起了作用，羅米特。正如我在事先準備好的演講稿中所說，我預計這將是該公司 2016 年毛利率的最低點。

If I may just build on that and take the question in the context of the totality of investments that we're making in the company, let me deal with margin and OpEx together.

如果允許我在此基礎上，結合公司所有投資情況來探討這個問題，讓我把利潤率和營運支出放在一起討論。

You know the thought process relative to the operating expenses in the company is we have tremendous opportunity here to continue to outgrow the industry and our commitment to invest in R&D to support that initiative is a really important commitment for the company. So we're not jerking left and right. Our commitment to customers around enabling technology, we are committed and we have to work through these short-term kind of variability that we see as a result, as a result of concentrated customers these days. But having said that, we talked a lot about R&D and SG&A percentages so Doug can talk more if you want to in the call, but I think you know what we're trying to do there.

您知道，公司在營運費用方面的想法是，我們在這裡擁有巨大的機會繼續超越行業平均水平，而我們致力於投資研發以支持這一舉措，這對公司來說是一項非常重要的承諾。所以我們不會左右搖擺。我們致力於為客戶提供賦能技術，我們必須克服如今客戶集中化所帶來的短期波動。但話雖如此，我們談了很多關於研發和銷售、一般及行政費用百分比的問題，所以如果你想在電話會議中了解更多，Doug 可以再多說一些，但我認為你知道我們想做什麼。

We have essentially in the guidance provided today retained or constrained the operating expense investment to a level that is pretty similar to the March 2015 quarter. And just to remind you, in March 2015, we were just coming off the back of a $5 billion revenue year.

在今天發布的指導意見中，我們基本上將營運費用投資維持或限制在與 2015 年 3 月季度非常相似的水平。提醒一下，2015 年 3 月，我們剛經歷了 50 億美元的營收年。

Now we're coming off the back of a $6 billion revenue year. So to have the operating expenses at the $350 million level is a testament to the business model and the commitment to the management team to be responsible in the context of long-term and short-term performance improvements.

我們剛剛經歷了營收 60 億美元的一年。因此，營運費用達到 3.5 億美元水平，證明了該商業模式的有效性，以及管理團隊致力於在長期和短期績效改進方面承擔責任的承諾。

Last thing to say, relative to gross margins, I don't think we're the first large equipment company to message December to March gross margin contraction in the scheme of things. The best council we have for you is the long-term model and the 22% range of operating income is still the ambition of the company in the 2016 year.

最後要說的是，就毛利率而言，我認為我們並不是第一家宣布 12 月至 3 月毛利率收縮的大型設備公司。我們能為您提供的最佳建議是長期模式，而2016年公司仍將22%的營業收入目標設定為目標。

Thanks, Romit.

謝謝你，羅米特。

And we'll take our next question from Timothy Arcuri with Cowen and Company. Your line is open.

接下來，我們將回答來自 Cowen and Company 的 Timothy Arcuri 提出的問題。您的線路已開通。

Thanks a lot. I had two things. First of all Martin just a sort of a question about the environment today versus three or so months ago, you guys had been very clear about the first half of this year shipments being up versus the back half of last year.

多謝。我有兩樣東西。首先，Martin，我想問一個關於當前環境與三個月前相比的問題。你們之前非常明確地表示，今年上半年的出貨量比去年下半年有所成長。

But now it sounds like you're a bit even more optimistic on June shipments and particularly now you're looking in the back half and also showing you're pretty bullish there too. So the question really is what has gotten better?

但現在看來，你對六月的出貨量更加樂觀了，尤其是現在你開始關注下半年，也表現出相當樂觀的態度。所以真正的問題是，哪些方面有所改善？

What particular customer area or what particular region has gotten better in that time? Thanks.

在此期間，哪些特定客戶群或特定區域的情況有所改善？謝謝。

I guess the context of what I'm about to say as I've said $33 billion WFE which is exactly the same as what I said in October.

我想，我接下來要說的話的背景是，我之前說過 WFE 為 330 億美元，這和我 10 月說的完全一樣。

What's different today obviously - the passing of three months always provides a little bit more visibility, always provides a little bit more of a confirmation on technology roadmaps of customers and their ability to yield through very complex technology transitions. So it's the same numerical presentation and if my tone is a little bit more positive that's really a commentary on the passing of time and being able to validate plans and being able to see customers validate their plans a little bit more in January that we were able to do in October.

如今的差異顯而易見——三個月的時間總是能帶來更多的可見性，總是能對客戶的技術路線圖以及他們應對非常複雜的技術轉型的能力提供更多的確認。所以，數位呈現方式是一樣的，如果我的語氣稍微積極一些，那實際上是對時間流逝的評論，以及對驗證計劃和看到客戶在 1 月份比 10 月份更多地驗證他們的計劃的說明。

Got it. Okay. Then I guess Martin just following on that if you add up all the projects in China there's like $20 billion worth of WFE. Clearly there's a big fab - not huge but a decent sized fab - that's actually ordering right now in China, but there's a lot of other very, very big fabs.

知道了。好的。然後我猜馬丁接著說，如果你把所有在中國的項目加起來，WFE 的價值大約是 200 億美元。顯然，中國有一家規模較大的晶圓廠（雖然不是巨型，但也是一家規模可觀的晶圓廠）目前正在下單，但還有很多其他規模非常非常大的晶圓廠。

And so I'm wondering, what is your assessment on the timing of that? Is any of that going to come into the back half of your year, or is that more of a 2017, 2018 thing? Thanks.

所以我想知道，您如何評價這件事發生的時機？這些計劃會在下半年實施嗎？還是說這些計畫會在 2017 年、2018 年實施？謝謝。

Yes, I'm going to reserve the right to not get specific to any one fab. I think the headlines are clear from that customer what they're intending to do and as you know, we've got great position in the 3-D NAND transition -- so to remind everybody we're at about a 90% market share in etch and dep critical applications, and we made progress between planar and 3-D, and so we are a very active participant in the spending plans of the customer that you are referring to.

是的，我保留不具體指明任何一家工廠的權利。我認為從那位客戶的表態來看，他們的意圖已經很明顯了。如您所知，我們在 3D NAND 轉型中佔據了有利地位——所以提醒大家，我們在蝕刻和沈積關鍵應用領域擁有約 90% 的市場份額，我們在平面和 3D 之間取得了進展，因此，我們積極參與了您提到的那位客戶的支出計劃。

And I should defer to their public commentary on the timing.

至於時機選擇，我應該尊重他們的公開評論。

Thanks, Tim.

謝謝你，提姆。

And we can take our next question from Krish Sankar with Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Your line is open.

接下來，我們來聽聽來自美國銀行美林證券的 Krish Sankar 提出的問題。您的線路已開通。

Yes, hello, thanks for taking my question. Two of them, Martin, and I give Martin the congratulations on a good calendar 2015. The first question is on the 3-D NAND spending. It looks like everyone wants to be bullish on this. I'm just wondering, is there a risk that if customers run into yield issues, could that slow the pace of adoption, or do you think that demand is so strong that they're going to punt through with mediocre yields. And then I also had a follow up.

是的，你好，謝謝你回答我的問題。我和馬丁向他表示祝賀，祝賀他製作了精美的 2015 年日曆。第一個問題是關於 3D NAND 的支出。看來大家都看好這隻狗。我只是想知道，如果客戶遇到收益率問題，是否會減緩採用速度？或者您認為需求如此強勁，以至於他們會接受平庸的收益率？然後我還有後續問題。

I think it would be irresponsible to say that yield isn't relevant relative to cost, isn't relevant to adoption. There is kind of a chicken and egg here.

我認為說收益率與成本無關，與普及無關是不負責任的。這裡有一個先有雞還是先有蛋的問題。

And I think one of the things that we're trying to do, we have obviously a tremendous opportunity to grow our company and outperform in the context of enabling many of the 3-D NAND architecture in partnership with our customers, but what goes with opportunity is a lot responsibility and we've got a lot of responsibility to help the customers yield to create an environment from a cost and performance point of view which is a catalyst for demand.

我認為我們正在努力做的事情之一，顯然是我們有巨大的機會發展壯大公司，並在與客戶合作實現許多 3D NAND 架構方面取得優異成績。但機會也伴隨著巨大的責任，我們肩負著幫助客戶從成本和性能的角度創造一個能夠促進需求的環境的重任。

I'm not sure which comes first in all of this, and the customer is going to speak to their tolerance of risk. To your point, everybody is invested with plans in 3-D NAND this calendar year as best as we can tell. 95% of the nonvolatile memory spending is focused on 3-D device architecture. It seems like there's a universal commitment to this and we're certainly head down working hard to contribute in our small way to the success of the customer.

我不太確定這一切哪個先發生，客戶會說明他們對風險的承受能力。正如你所說，據我們所知，今年每個人都在積極籌劃 3D NAND 技術。95% 的非揮發性記憶體支出都集中在 3D 裝置架構上。看來大家對此都有著普遍的承諾，我們也一定會埋頭努力，盡我們所能為客戶的成功做出貢獻。

Got it. That's very helpful. Just a follow-up for either yourself or for Doug. When you look at the next year or even later this year or next year it looks like the spending shift might move more from memory towards 10 nm logic or foundry. Is there a way to quantify how much of a margin tailwind would it be when the mixture's from memory to foundry?

知道了。那很有幫助。給你或給道格一個後續問題。展望明年，甚至今年稍晚或明年，支出重心似乎可能會從記憶體轉向 10 奈米邏輯或代工。有沒有辦法量化混合物從記憶體到鑄造過程中產生的順風效應有多大？

No, I don't think there's really any substantial differential due to any of the segments in the business. There's differentials, customer to customer sometimes, larger early adopting customers that help with development sometimes, get a little better pricing but I don't think segment to segment is something you should think of that way Krish.

不，我認為業務的各個細分領域之間並沒有什麼實質的差異。有時，不同客戶之間會有差異，早期採用的大客戶在開發過程中有時會獲得更優惠的價格，但我認為你不應該這樣看待不同細分市場之間的差異，Krish。

And I think is a basic headline what you've heard us talk about for many years is the philosophy relative to pricing what we sell to our customers. So our number one focus is to build customer trust.

我認為，多年來我們一直在談論的一個基本要點是，我們對向客戶銷售的產品的定價理念。因此，我們的首要任務是建立客戶信任。

Our number one way of building customer trust is to position for fair compensation. And we are not the highest gross margin company in the industry by a long stretch.

建立客戶信任的首要方法是爭取公平的報酬。而且，我們離業內毛利率最高的公司還差得很遠。

But I think we're the fastest growing or one of the fastest-growing and there's always a balance between targeted profitability and growth. And we spend a lot of time thinking through the legitimacy of the gross margin objective for the company and the range that we talked about for the last several years, this mid-forty percent range, 45%, 46% and I think a very defendable place for us to be and it is in general, in a consolidated world it is pretty segment and customer agnostic, right?

但我認為我們是成長最快的公司之一，或至少是成長最快的公司之一，而且在實現目標獲利能力和成長之間總是需要保持平衡的。我們花了很多時間思考公司毛利率目標的合理性，以及過去幾年我們一直在討論的毛利率範圍，即 45% 到 46% 的中段範圍。我認為這是一個非常合理的範圍，而且在整合的世界裡，這個範圍總體上與細分市場和客戶無關，對吧？

We don't want to play a role influencing the competitiveness of customers based on our pricing strategy. That would be a sure way to lose customer trust.

我們不希望透過定價策略影響客戶的競爭力。那樣做肯定會失去客戶的信任。

We'll take our next question from Farhan Ahmad with Credit Suisse. Your line is open.

接下來，我們將回答瑞士信貸的 Farhan Ahmad 提出的問題。您的線路已開通。

Thanks for taking my question and congratulations on the great quarter and the year. My first question is on 3-D NAND.

感謝您回答我的問題，並祝賀您本季和全年業績都非常出色。我的第一個問題是關於 3D NAND 的。

Martin, you mentioned that the overall NAND spending is going to be up double digit. I wanted to ask if you can provide a breakout between planar and 3-D, and specific to 3-D, how much an increase in spending do you expect this year?

Martin，你提到 NAND 的整體支出將達到兩位數成長。我想請問您能否提供平面和 3D 的細分數據，特別是對於 3D 而言，您預計今年的支出將成長多少？

You know, we are at least in this call going to keep our WFE disclosure for memory at the memory level as opposed to a DRAM number and a NAND number, and the reason for that is because we see there are some pretty big decisions for a couple of customers to make around where their allocation of spending will be.

你知道，至少在這次電話會議中，我們將繼續以內存級別而非 DRAM 數量和 NAND 數量來披露 WFE 內存信息，原因是我們看到一些客戶需要就其支出分配做出一些非常重要的決定。

So I'm hoping that by the time we get to the next call that clarity is there. But to the first part of your question our assumption is 95% of the investment in 2016 in non-volatile memory NAND and other schemes is 3-D.

所以我希望，到下次通話時，情況能夠明朗化。但對於你問題的第一部分，我們的假設是，2016 年在非揮發性記憶體 NAND 和其他方案上的投資有 95% 是 3D 的。

So it is dominating the investment. And it is a very complex mix of conversions and upgrades as well as some additions. I would say it is a very efficient spend plan and it has everybody participating.

因此，它在投資領域中佔據主導地位。這是一個非常複雜的組合，包含了改造、升級以及一些新增項目。我認為這是一個非常有效率的支出計劃，而且每個人都參與其中。

And just a clarification, how much was the split between planar and 3-D in say 2015 spending?

另外，請問在 2015 年的支出中，平面和 3D 分別佔多少比例？

I want to say 60/40.

我想說60/40。

Yes, it was about 60%.

是的，大約是 60%。

Got it. And then one longer-term question, Martin. If I look at what happened over last three, four years, Lam has outgrown the industry massively, and part of the reason was obviously like you guys have been following a strategy of investing heavily in the growth trends within the industry where some of your other competitors, AMAT and TEL, for a period of time kind of moved away their focus from semi conductor and were looking at other market and were kind of throttling their investment in the semis. Now looking ahead it seems like both of these companies have seen the outperformance that you have been able to deliver and kind of changed their strategy to start investing more in the space.

知道了。馬丁，還有一個更長遠的問題。回顧過去三、四年發生的事情，Lam 的發展速度遠遠超過了行業平均水平，部分原因顯然是你們一直奉行著大力投資行業增長趨勢的戰略，而你們的一些競爭對手，如 AMAT 和 TEL，在一段時間內卻將重心從半導體轉移到了其他市場，並減少了對半導體的投資。現在展望未來，這兩家公司似乎都看到了你所取得的優異業績，並改變了策略，開始加大對該領域的投資。

Is there a change when you look at the competition that you are seeing in the growth areas of the market is it any higher now than what you used to see like say three years ago?

觀察市場成長領域的競爭情況，您是否發現競爭格局發生了變化？現在的競爭程度是否比三年前更高？

I think I used perpetually competitive when I described the etch segment. It feels the same today as it ever has done. This is a tough industry, a tough segment, and it isn't just about the big guys, it's sometimes the smaller competitors, the regional alternatives and so on and so forth.

我覺得我在描述蝕刻部分時用了「始終具有競爭力」這個詞。感覺和以往一樣。這是一個競爭激烈的行業，一個競爭激烈的細分市場，而且不僅僅是大公司的問題，有時還包括規模較小的競爭對手、區域性替代方案等等。

We have been very disciplined making the investments in our future, long-term future, a priority for the company. It's a multiyear commitment that extends way back. And it is a tough thing to get balance but I think the company did a nice job at identifying the opportunity to grow through technology inflections. The technology and engineering results, the company did a fantastic job delivering as competitive products and services. Our field organization nailed the interface with the customer in terms of positioning but more importantly supporting ramps and productivity agendas and installed base performance. So it's a total team effort.

我們一直秉持嚴謹的態度，將對公司未來，特別是長遠未來的投資作為公司的優先事項。這是一項可以追溯到很久以前的多年承諾。保持平衡是一件很難的事情，但我認為該公司在掌握技術變革帶來的成長機會方面做得很好。公司在技術和工程方面取得了卓越的成果，交付了具有競爭力的產品和服務。我們的現場組織在定位方面與客戶建立了良好的溝通，但更重要的是，在支援提升生產力、提高安裝基礎效能方面也做得非常出色。所以這是團隊共同努力的結果。

Our plan is to build upon that foundation and whether we can do exactly the same thing in the next three years that we did in the last three. Time will tell, but you've got a pretty committed company to a growth trajectory that is profitable.

我們的計劃是在此基礎上繼續發展，看看我們能否在未來三年內做到過去三年所做的一切。時間會證明一切，但你們擁有一家致力於實現獲利成長的堅定公司。

Thanks, Farhan.

謝謝你，法爾漢。

We will take our next question from C.J. Muse with Evercore. Your line is open.

接下來，我們將回答來自 Evercore 公司的 C.J. Muse 提出的問題。您的線路已開通。

Yes, good afternoon. Thank you for taking my question. I guess first question, was hoping to drill a little bit deeper in terms of SAM expansion here for calendar 2016.

是的，下午好。感謝您回答我的問題。我想問的第一個問題是，希望能夠更深入探討 2016 年 SAM 的擴張情況。

You grew 20% plus in 2015 versus the market's 3% to 5%, so great job there. Curious what the puts and takes are this year. How do we think about maybe a falloff in image sensors but a pickup and share gain in logic, the move to a greater NAND less DRAM, deferred revenues. What are the key drivers we should be thinking about plus and minus for this year?

2015年你的業績成長了20%以上，而同期市場成長僅3%至5%，所以乾得漂亮！很好奇今年的投注和收盤情況如何。我們如何看待影像感測器可能會下滑，但邏輯電路可能會回升並擴大市場份額，轉向使用更多 NAND 快閃記憶體而不是 DRAM，以及遞延收入的情況？今年我們應該重點關注哪些關鍵驅動因素（包括正面和負面因素）？

So I'll deal with one part of that and maybe Doug will deal with the deferred revenue piece. At a segment level the story that I described for WFE is slightly stronger foundry year-over-year relative to a slightly weaker memory investment.

所以我會處理其中的一部分，也許道格會處理遞延收入部分。從細分市場來看，我所描述的晶圓代工業務與去年同期相比略有成長，而記憶體投資則略有下降。

Historically that has meant something to us in terms of the degree of outperformance, but one piece of really important context is we really positioned well in the image sensor transitions, and I think when other folks were struggling a little bit with logic spend reductions we generally marched right through that because of that positioning, and it is as strong today as a was then.

從歷史上看，這在性能超越的程度上對我們意義重大，但一個非常重要的背景是，我們在圖像感測器轉型中佔據了非常有利的地位，我認為當其他人還在努力削減邏輯成本時，我們通常都能順利度過難關，這都歸功於我們當時的這種優勢，而且這種優勢在今天仍然和當時一樣強大。

Our momentum in foundries and in microprocessor logic is now, I hope, well understood to be a positive trajectory for the company. And so we still believe that in an essentially flat WFE our SAM increases. One part of that is the inflections message, so something like a 33% reference point for 2015 the proportion of WFE that is inflection-based, and that is walking its way to the 55% level.

我希望大家已經充分認識到，我們在晶圓代工和微處理器邏輯領域的強勁勢頭，對公司而言是一個積極的發展軌跡。因此，我們仍然認為，在WFE基本持平的情況下，我們的SAM會增加。其中一部分是拐點訊息，例如 2015 年的參考點為 33%，即基於拐點的 WFE 比例，並且正在向 55% 的水平邁進。

We've just come off a stunning market share year for the company. We're going to keep working hard and the long-term market share objectives I think are well within grasp at this point. So we're pretty pleased about that.

公司剛剛經歷了一個市場份額大幅增長的年份。我們將繼續努力，我認為目前來看，長期市佔率目標完全可以實現。所以對此我們非常滿意。

Yes, C.J., so just to follow on the second part of your question, normally you will see when we have got shipments ramping up deferred revenue will grow. And vice versa when shipment coming down deferred revenue will come down.

是的，C.J.，接著你問題的第二部分，通常情況下，當出貨量增加時，遞延收入也會成長。反之亦然，當出貨量下降時，遞延收入也會下降。

You kind of saw that in December. And in my scripted remarks I talked about an expectation that in the first half of 2016 we expect deferred revenue to grow. It's because we expect to be on a ramping profile of shipments.

你在12月份就已經看到了這一點。我在事先準備好的發言稿中談到，我們預計 2016 年上半年遞延收入將會成長。這是因為我們預期出貨量將呈現上升趨勢。

Very helpful. I guess as my follow-up if I take your commentary around shipments more second-half weighted than first-half it looks like we're going to hit roughly $1.6 billion, $1.7 billion and I'm curious, a) do you agree with that assessment, and b) does that mean that we should be targeting 46.5% plus type of gross margin exiting 2016?

很有幫助。我想作為後續問題，如果我按照您關於出貨量下半年比上半年更佔比的評論來看，我們似乎將達到大約 16 億美元到 17 億美元。我很好奇，a) 您是否同意這項評估？ b) 這是否意味著我們應該在 2016 年底將毛利率目標設定為 46.5% 以上？

Yes, C.J., I'm not ready to quantify anything yet. The fact that we're giving you color on the second-half we thought was important given March was a low level for the year. I'm not going to quantify it quite yet.

是的，C.J.，我還沒準備好量化任何事情。鑑於三月的水平是全年的低谷，我們認為對下半年的情況進行詳細分析非常重要。我暫時還不打算對其進行量化。

And in terms of the profitability level I'll just take you back to the financial model we put up back in July as the right way to think about the performance of the business on a medium-term basis.

至於獲利水平，我只想帶大家回顧一下我們在 7 月提出的財務模型，這是思考公司中期業績的正確方法。

And we can take our next question from Patrick Ho with Stifel Nicolaus. Your line is open.

接下來，我們將聽聽來自 Stifel Nicolaus 的 Patrick Ho 提出的問題。您的線路已開通。

Thank you very much. Doug, first off in terms of the revenue recognition versus the shipments and the deferred revenues that you're talking about, obviously Japan is a portion of it.

非常感謝。道格，首先，就你提到的收入確認、出貨量和遞延收入而言，顯然日本是其中的一部分。

Are there any other variables, like say as you mentioned the new Chinese fab, things of that nature that also cause a potential delay in terms of revenue recognition?

還有其他變數嗎？例如您提到的新的中國工廠之類的，也可能導致收入確認的延遲？

Every customer is a little bit different in terms of how they accept tools that are shipped, so customer-to-customer there's variation, fab-to-fab there can be variation. Especially when there's a new fab you're shipping to, sometimes it can take a little bit longer to clear customs as an example, so the differential between ship and revenue has several different variables.

每位客戶對所交付工具的接受方式都略有不同，因此客戶之間會有差異，工廠之間也會有差異。特別是當你要向一個新的工廠發貨時，例如，清關可能需要更長時間，因此發貨量和收入之間的差異有幾個不同的變數。

But I think it's fair to say that the mix of customers - this was a relatively slow turn and we'll probably speed up a little bit over time.

但我認為可以公平地說，客戶組成——這是一個相對緩慢的轉變，隨著時間的推移，我們可能會加快一些速度。

Great, that's helpful. And Martin, just I'm going to the ALD market for a second.

太好了，這很有幫助。馬丁，我去ALD市場一趟。

You guys have made a big foothold to try and get into that market. You're starting to see some of the gains especially as multi-patterning on the logic and foundry side. Kind of a two-part question there, one, how do you see the capital intensity increasing for the ALD market, first as a whole, and secondly how do you see your share gain potential particularly as you move from the 16 nm, 14 nm nodes to 10 nm?

你們已經取得了很大的進展，試圖打入那個市場。尤其是在邏輯和代工方面，多重模式化已經開始帶來一些利益。這是一個包含兩部分的問題，第一，您如何看待 ALD 市場整體的資本密集度增長，第二，您如何看待您的市場份額增長潛力，尤其是在您從 16 奈米、14 奈米節點過渡到 10 奈米節點時？

The share gain sits in the context of the overall objectives for the company in deposition, so we've kind of given you a reference point of 5 to 10 percentage points in the calendar 2013 through 2018 timeframe.

股份成長是在公司整體目標的背景下考慮的，因此我們給出了 2013 年至 2018 年期間 5 至 10 個百分點的參考點。

The ALD question is a really interesting one and I think there are actually a lot of unanswered questions relative to the choices of technology and integration schemes to address really complex challenges. But our expectation is that ALD is a market that grows faster than any other that we participate in in the deposition segment. And we come from behind in many respects. In the last kind of five years and so in relative terms the market share momentum that we are seeking in ALD is higher than the average in deposition. So it is a faster-growing market with a faster market share growth ambition. Which doesn't mean it's easy, it's really hard, and it's hard because everybody wants a piece of that.

ALD 問題確實非常有趣，我認為在選擇技術和整合方案來應對真正複雜的挑戰方面，實際上還有很多未解之謎。但我們預計，ALD 市場的成長速度將超過我們參與的任何其他沉積領域。我們在很多方面都處於落後狀態。在過去的五年裡，相對而言，我們在 ALD 領域所追求的市場份額成長勢頭高於沉積領域的平均水平。因此，這是一個成長速度更快、市佔率成長目標也更快的市場。但這並不意味著很容易，實際上非常難，難就難在每個人都想從中分一杯羹。

And we can take our next question from Steven Chin with UBS. Your line is open.

接下來，我們可以聽聽瑞銀集團的 Steven Chin 所提出的問題。您的線路已開通。

Thanks. Hello, Martin, Doug. Congrats also on the 2015 execution.

謝謝。你好，馬丁，道格。也祝賀你們2015年的成功執行。

Thanks, Steven.

謝謝你，史蒂文。

Just a follow-up question on market share. Did you feel comfortable that Lam's overall share in NAND this year will stay the same or even grow now that we've got a new entrant? I'm just wondering if customer mix in NAND this year can have another positive impact to Lam's market share this year.

關於市場份額，還有一個後續問題。鑑於今年有新公司加入，您是否認為林氏今年在NAND快閃記憶體領域的市佔率會保持不變甚至成長？我只是想知道今年 NAND 的客戶組成是否會對 Lam 今年的市場份額產生另一個積極影響。

You know, at a level which is kind of relevant to a conversation between us, there's not that much difference between the market share positions at any one customer. We tend to have, when we won something we kind of won it at an application-specific level because we have a very competitive technology.

你知道，就我們之間的對話而言，在任何一個客戶的市場佔有率地位上，其實並沒有太大的差別。我們往往在某個應用領域取得勝利，因為我們擁有極具競爭力的技術。

As you know there is one of the four players that has a different integration scheme and so I want to be a little bit careful and just hold back because their scheme is theirs and I don't want to focus too much on that difference.

如你所知，這四名球員中有一位採用了不同的整合方案，所以我希望謹慎一些，保持低調，因為他們的方案是他們自己的，我不想過多關注這種差異。

But the basic headline of a 90% market share in critical applications, 60% market share all in, which is a kind of double-digit gain for us from planar to 3-D, that is what we have to build upon. And it is what others are trying to take from us. So that is our responsibility.

但最基本的頭條新聞是，我們在關鍵應用領域擁有 90% 的市場份額，在所有應用領域擁有 60% 的市場份額，這對我們來說是一次從平面到 3D 的兩位數增長，這就是我們必須努力的方向。而這正是其他人試圖從我們身上奪走的東西。所以這是我們的責任。

Thanks for that. Just a follow-up question on China. Do you think, Martin, we're at the point yet where Lam will invest more in a local China infrastructure or services to support future customers in China? Just wondering if China is part of the Lam investment this year, part of the bet you're making going forward.

謝謝。關於中國，還有一個後續問題。Martin，你認為Lam公司是否會增加對中國本地基礎設施或服務的投資，以支持未來在中國的客戶？我只是想知道中國是否是林氏今年投資的一部分，是否是你們未來投資計畫的一部分。

For sure, but I wouldn't say that's a new reality. As a customer invests in building a fab, we have to invest consistent with supporting that.

當然，但我不會說這是個新現實。客戶投資建造晶圓廠，我們也必須進行相應的投資來支持該晶圓廠的建設。

And as noted a couple times in this conversation there's a reasonable investment in China and it is increasing and we're making investments proactively to ensure that when we win positions, we build trust through a customer's ramp. The worst thing to do is to win a development position and then fail to execute because you don't have enough field process or field service engineers to support a ramp.

正如我們在這次談話中多次提到的，我們在中國有相當可觀的投資，而且投資還在增加。我們正在積極進行投資，以確保當我們贏得市場地位時，我們能夠透過客戶的逐步支持建立信任。最糟糕的情況是贏得了開發職位，然後因為沒有足夠的現場製程工程師或現場服務工程師來支援業務成長而導致執行失敗。

So absolutely we're investing in infrastructure to support growth of the China marketplace. But that's true in every region of the world.

所以，我們絕對會投資基礎建設來支持中國市場的成長。但這種情況在世界各地都是如此。

Thanks, Steven.

謝謝你，史蒂文。

And we'll take our next question from Weston Twigg with Pacific Crest Securities. Your line is open.

接下來，我們將回答來自太平洋山脊證券的韋斯頓·特威格提出的問題。您的線路已開通。

Hi, thanks for taking my question. First, just wondering on the 10 nm logic and foundry expectations for stronger second half installations and then a ramp into 2017, can you give us an idea kind of like you do for 3-D NAND how many wafers starts might be shipped this year and next year?

您好，感謝您回答我的問題。首先，我想了解 10 奈米邏輯製程和代工廠對下半年產能成長的預期，以及 2017 年產能的逐步提升。您能否像預測 3D NAND 製程的產能那樣，預測一下今年和明年晶圓的出貨量？

Yes, so I'm going to do this with some kind of caution and hesitation. We have a range around it. We are still over a 300,000 wafer starts per month reference point for 28 nm technology node.

是的，所以我打算謹慎而猶豫地去做這件事。我們圍繞著它設計了一系列產品。對於 28 奈米技術節點，我們仍然保持每月 30 萬片晶圓開工量的參考水準。

And the sum of below 20 nm, so 20 nm, 16 nm, 14 nm, and 10 nm. We would expect by the end of this year to have a shipped capacity, which is different than a qualified capacity, but a combined shipped capacity of about 260,000 wafer starts, plus or minus 20,000.

小於 20 奈米的總和為 20 奈米、16 奈米、14 奈米和 10 奈米。我們預計到今年底將達到出貨產能，這與合格產能不同，但總出貨產能約為 26 萬片晶圓，上下浮動 2 萬片。

Okay. How much do you think that might expand in 2017?

好的。你認為2017年這個數字可能會成長多少？

Can I wait to get through 2016 before answering that?

我可以等到2016年過去後再回答這個問題嗎？

I guess so. (laughs) Wafer cleans you mentioned you're getting some good traction. Can you give us a better update maybe on the evaluation programs that were in place last year? And your overall market share position at this point?

大概吧。（笑）你提到的晶圓清洗方面，你們已經取得了一些不錯的進展。您能否提供去年實施的評估計畫的最新進展？您目前的市佔率整體狀況如何？

Yes, well, it still obviously is the weaker link in the company in terms of market share performance. It's certainly relative to etch and deposition, and we did some strategic repositioning as you might remember towards the end of last year and rationalized some cost structure and focused a little bit more on what we consider to be the most relevant opportunities to grow.

是的，就市佔率表現而言，它顯然仍然是公司中較弱的環節。這當然與蝕刻和沈積有關，您可能還記得，我們​​在去年年底進行了一些策略調整，合理化了一些成本結構，並更加專注於我們認為最相關的成長機會。

It's a mid-to high teens market share play for us today and the message we communicated today is strategically relevant. We are excited about a profitable growth opportunity coming into 2016 and we're broadening the product portfolio wet and dry and time will tell what we can accomplish as a result of that investment.

對我們來說，今天的市佔率目標在15%到10%之間，我們今天傳達的訊息具有戰略意義。我們對 2016 年即將到來的獲利成長機會感到興奮，我們正在擴大乾濕產品組合，時間會證明這項投資能帶來怎樣的成就。

But I think most of us would say we feel better about clean this year that we did last year and long may that continue.

但我認為我們大多數人都會說，今年我們對清潔的感受比去年好得多，希望這種狀況可以一直維持下去。

Thanks, Wes.

謝謝你，韋斯。

We will take our next question from Atif Malik with Citigroup. Your line is open.

接下來，我們將回答花旗集團的阿提夫馬利克提出的問題。您的線路已開通。

Hello, thanks for taking my question. Martin, you talked about in your prepared remarks that you received positive feedback from your customers on the merger with KLA. Can you talk about one or two key areas where you think you guys can add value to the yields or some of the applications?

您好，感謝您回答我的問題。馬丁，你在事先準備好的演講稿中提到，你收到了客戶對與 KLA 合併的正面回饋。您能否談談您認為可以在哪些關鍵領域為產量或某些應用增加價值？

Yes, I think the basic message is going to be the same as the hypothesis we presented last time. The challenge for the industry is not just a challenge of physics it is a challenge of economics.

是的，我認為基本資訊將與我們上次提出的假設相同。該行業面臨的挑戰不僅是物理學上的挑戰，也是經濟學上的挑戰。

At a strategic level we concluded that the most responsible action we can take, the most significant contribution we could make to the success of our customers, would come from the integration of process and process control. A big part of that value proposition is associated with new engagements across the companies with customers, because the reality is as you all know, the KLA team is a little bit more entrenched and stronger relatively in foundry logic than we are, and we are more than them in memory.

從策略層面來看，我們認為，我們能夠採取的最負責任的行動，以及我們能夠為客戶的成功做出的最重要貢獻，都來自於流程和流程控制的整合。該價值主張的很大一部分與公司與客戶之間的新合作有關，因為正如你們所知，KLA 團隊在晶圓代工邏輯方面比我們更有根基、更強大，而我們在內存方面比他們更勝一籌。

So there's absolutely an opportunity there. There are engineering exchange programs. We're building momentum, specifying the types of things we think are relevant to new collaborations and joint development activities with customers when we get to be one company.

所以，這其中絕對存在著機會。有工程專業的交流工程。我們正在積蓄力量，明確我們認為與新合作以及與客戶共同開發活動相關的各種事項，以便我們最終成為一家公司。

And quite how far that goes, how quickly, your reference right now is now $600 million bogie we have in the proxy for revenue synergies. And I would say I feel better about that today than when I did when I talked to you about last time because I see excitement emerging in the engineering community around the substance of opportunity which is everything about delivering vision here. And I see a sustained willingness in the customer base to support our plans to support them. So pretty excited at this point.

至於這究竟能走多遠，速度有多快，你現在的參考指標是，我們目前以 6 億美元作為收入綜效的指標。而且，我今天的感覺比上次和你談到這件事時要好得多，因為我看到工程界對機會的實質內容（也就是實現願景的一切）產生了興奮之情。我看到客戶群持續表現出支持我們為他們提供支援的計劃的意願。我現在非常興奮。

Great. And then a follow-up, Doug. The street has a tendency to mis-model your revenues. And I think in the past you guys have talked about a formula for revenue 50% of shipments in the prior quarter and then 50% from shipments in the current quarter.

偉大的。然後還有後續問題，道格。市場往往會錯誤地預測你的收入。我認為你們之前討論過一個收入計算公式，即上一季出貨量的 50% 來自上一季的出貨量，另外 50% 來自本季度的出貨量。

Is that still the right rule of thumb moving forward?

這經驗法則在未來仍然適用嗎？

I would be cautious about doing that because I think it has proven to be a really hard thing to model. And the reason is, because we live in a consolidated customer world and the difference between a week one shipment and a 13 week shipment is huge relative to the turn and it moves absolutely.

我會謹慎行事，因為我認為這已被證明是一件非常難以建模的事情。原因在於，我們生活在一個客戶高度集中的世界，一周發貨和 13 週發貨之間的差異相對於週轉率來說是巨大的，而且這種差異是絕對的。

And so we cannot really give you a nice simple reference like we used to be able to. I remember vividly describing a relationship to you 10 years ago that would work for three years, five years. It doesn't work anymore, because it's consolidated. It is a much more variable play and every week counts and so we have a little bit slower turn in the March timeframe and we expect it to speed up.

因此，我們現在無法像以前那樣為您提供簡單易懂的參考資料了。我清楚記得，10 年前我曾向你描述過一段可以維持 3 年、5 年的感情。它已經失效了，因為它已經被合併了。這是一個變化更大的局面，每一周都很重要，因此我們在三月的比賽節奏會稍慢一些，我們預計比賽節奏會加快。

The best we can give you in terms of counsel on modeling is the exact guidance for the next quarter, the tone of quanlitative sentiment on direction and the long-term model that Doug has talked about a number of times, and triangulating on those three you might get a quarter wrong but hopefully you get the year right.

在建模方面，我們能給你的最好建議是下一季度的確切指導、對方向的定性情緒基調以及道格多次談到的長期模型，通過對這三者的三角驗證，你可能會對一個季度的預測出錯，但希望你能對全年的預測是正確的。

Operator I think we have time for one more.

操作員：我想我們還有時間再來一個。

We will take our final question from Jagadish Iyer with Redstone Technology Research. Your line is open.

我們將回答來自 Redstone Technology Research 的 Jagadish Iyer 提出的最後一個問題。您的線路已開通。

Thanks for taking my question and congrats once again. I wanted to dive in on two aspects.

感謝您回答我的問題，再次恭喜您。我想深入探討兩個面向。

First Martin I just wanted to get your thoughts on the DRAM side. Given the technology challenges and the market challenges, what needs to happen to trigger an investment going forward? Can we have an upside in DRAM investment this year? And I have a follow-up.

馬丁，首先我想聽聽你對DRAM方面的看法。鑑於技術和市場方面的挑戰，未來需要發生什麼才能觸發投資？今年DRAM投資會有上漲空間嗎？我還有一個後續問題。

I guess the answer to the question always has to be, yes there can be. Do I think there will be? Not clear to me today.

我想這個問題的答案永遠是肯定的，是的，有可能。我認為會有嗎？今天我還是不太明白。

And it would be a second half environment not a first half environment because I think the inventory situation is getting better but it's probably not all the way there, but it's a lot better. There's tremendous discipline, it's a very efficient spend because it's all about conversions which is increased performance and lower cost which is more profitability, despite the fact that profitability levels have come down they're still reasonably able to support investment.

而且這更像是下半年的環境，而不是上半年的環境，因為我認為庫存狀況正在好轉，但可能還沒完全恢復，但已經好多了。他們紀律嚴明，支出非常高效，因為一切都圍繞著轉換率（提高績效）和成本（提高獲利能力）展開，儘管獲利水準有所下降，但他們仍然能夠合理地支持投資。

I just think it's like a lot of discipline in a year when bit density conversion is playing out in DRAM as well which creates a little more complexity to your question. So I would say we have modeled pretty conservatively our expectations, maybe there's a little bit of upside in the second half of the year. At the end of the day it is all going to be about end-user and end-unit demand, and you will probably see that before we will.

我覺得這就像是一年內要進行大量的紀律約束，而DRAM中的位元密度轉換也在進行中，這使得你的問題變得更加複雜。所以我覺得我們對預期設定得相當保守，也許下半年會有一些上漲空間。歸根結底，一切都將取決於最終用戶和最終產品的需求，而你們可能比我們更早看到這一點。

Just as a follow up can you compare or contrast your growth in your etch and deposition segments holistically for the year, given the spending mix as we compare it to last year? Thanks.

作為後續問題，您能否結合去年的支出結構，對今年蝕刻和沈積業務的整體成長進行比較或對比？謝謝。

I'm not sure I quite get the question. We had a really tremendous year in terms of share gain last year. And that was particularly true in the etch business. It was an extraordinary year for the etch team.

我不太明白這個問題。去年我們在市場佔有率成長方面取得了非常巨大的成功。這一點在蝕刻行業尤其如此。對於蝕刻團隊來說，這是非凡的一年。

And do you get to repeat that every year? No you don't. So we typically target one to two percentage points of share gain. That's a great result in a year or in a technology node conversion.

每年都能重複這個過程嗎？不，你不需要。因此，我們通常的目標是提升一到兩個百分點的市佔率。在一年內或技術節點轉換中，這是一個非常好的結果。

And so we just did something like that in deposition, we did a lot better than that in etch. I would expect the 1% to 2% reference to be a better long-term modeling from what we just did. But again, time will tell.

所以我們在沉積方面做了類似的事情，但在蝕刻方面做得比這好得多。我認為，以 1% 到 2% 為參考值，會比我們剛才所做的更適合作為長期模型。但時間會證明一切。

And this does conclude the question-and-answer session. I would like to turn the program back to Satya Kumar for any closing remarks.

問答環節到此結束。我想把節目交還給薩蒂亞·庫馬爾，讓他做最後的總結發言。

Yes, thank you, operator. That is all the time we have for today. Thank you for your participation and we look forward to updating you again next quarter. Thank you.

是的，謝謝接線生。今天的時間就到這裡了。感謝您的參與，我們期待下季再次向您報告最新情況。謝謝。

Thank you for your participation. This does conclude today's program.

感謝您的參與。今天的節目到此結束。