科林研發 (LRCX) 2017 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, everyone, and welcome to the Lam Research Corporation's June 2017 Conference Call.

大家好，歡迎參加 Lam Research Corporation 2017 年 6 月電話會議。

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Satya Kumar, Vice President of Investor Relations of Lam Research. Please go ahead.

此時，我謹將會議交給 Lam Research 投資人關係副總裁 Satya Kumar 先生。請繼續。

Yes, thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to the Lam Research quarterly earnings conference call. With me today are Martin Anstice, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Doug Bettinger, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

是的，謝謝大家，大家下午好。歡迎參加Lam Research季度財報電話會議。今天陪同我的是總裁兼執行長馬丁·安斯蒂斯，以及執行副總裁兼財務長道格·貝廷格。

During today's call, we will share our outlook on the business environment, review our financial results for the June 2017 quarter and our outlook for the September 2017 quarter. The press release detailing our financial results was distributed a little after 1:00 p.m. Pacific Time this afternoon. It can also be found on the Investor Relations section of the company's website, along with the presentation slides that accompany today's call.

在今天的電話會議上，我們將分享我們對商業環境的展望，回顧我們 2017 年 6 月季度的財務業績以及我們對 2017 年 9 月季度的展望。詳細介紹我們財務表現的新聞稿已於下午 1 點剛過發布。太平洋時間今天下午。也可以在公司網站的投資者關係部分找到，以及今天電話會議的簡報。

Today's presentation and Q&A includes forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties reflected in the risk factor disclosures of our SEC public filings. Please see accompanying slide in the presentation for additional information.

今天的演示和問答環節包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到風險和不確定性的影響，這些風險和不確定性已反映在我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的公開文件中的風險因素披露中。更多資訊請參閱簡報中的配套幻燈片。

Today's discussion of our financial results will be presented on a non-GAAP financial basis unless otherwise specified. A detailed reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP results can be found in today's earnings press release.

除非另有說明，我們今天對財務表現的討論將以非GAAP財務報表為基礎。今天的盈利新聞稿中提供了 GAAP 和非 GAAP 結果之間的詳細調整表。

This call is scheduled to last until 3:00 p.m. Pacific Time. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, the replay of this call will be available later this afternoon on our website.

本次通話預計持續到下午3點。太平洋時間。（操作員指示）提醒各位，本次通話的錄音將於今天下午晚些時候在我們的網站上提供。

And with that, let me hand the call over to Martin.

那麼，現在讓我把電話交給馬丁。

Thank you, Satya. We delivered another record quarter highlighted by over $3 in earnings per share and reported for the first time in the company's history nearly $5 billion in cumulative shipments in the first half of the calendar year. Shipments, revenue, profit margins and EPS were all well above the midpoints of our guidance range for the June quarter. In this context, I would like to thank sincerely our customers for the opportunity to contribute to their success and our employees for their dedication and hard work making these achievements possible.

謝謝你，薩蒂亞。我們又創下了季度業績紀錄，每股收益超過 3 美元，並且公司歷史上首次在上半年累積出貨量接近 50 億美元。出貨量、營收、利潤率和每股盈餘均遠高於我們對 6 月季度業績預期範圍的中位數。在此，我衷心感謝我們的客戶給我機會，讓我能夠為他們的成功做出貢獻；同時感謝我們的員工，感謝他們的奉獻和辛勤工作，使這些成就成為可能。

We will first start with a short update on near-term demand trends, add some context to the drivers behind our success over the last several years and frame the exciting and sustainable opportunity we believe the company has going forward.

我們將首先簡要介紹近期需求趨勢，補充說明過去幾年我們成功的驅動因素，並闡述我們認為公司未來將面臨的令人興奮且可持續的機會。

As a brief headline, since our last earnings call, DRAM and NAND demands driven spending both have increased our expectations for calendar '17 and calendar '18 company performance. We have continued investing in capacity and flexibility for business success. Our operational execution and performance, we believe, continues to set a competitive standard in our industry.

簡而言之，自從我們上次財報電話會議以來，DRAM 和 NAND 需求的推動支出都提高了我們對公司 2017 年和 2018 年業績的預期。我們持續投資於產能和靈活性，以促進業務成功。我們相信，我們的營運執行和業績將繼續在業界樹立競爭標竿。

Demand trends are robust particularly in memory, both in enterprise and consumer end markets. Applications such as machine learning and artificial intelligence are foundational to the next generation of technology innovation and they are driving strong memory content growth for DRAM and NANDs that offer attractive economics for our customers. The substantial density increases made possible by 3D NAND are driving strong content growth for high-end smartphone devices this year. Combined, we see tremendous opportunity over the next several years for robust nonvolatile memory growth in consumer end markets driven by innovation such as AR, VR, 5G-automated driving, robotics and other IoT applications. We continue to be very enthusiastic about the opportunity for a silicon-enabled comprehensive global technology and applications revolution. With these trends, memory supply/demand balance remains tight and our memory customers are on track to generate record performance with memory industry revenues in 2017 poised to exceed $100 billion for the first time ever.

無論是企業終端市場或是消費性終端市場，對記憶體的需求趨勢都非常強勁。機器學習和人工智慧等應用是下一代技術創新的基礎，它們正在推動 DRAM 和 NAND 記憶體含量的強勁成長，為我們的客戶帶來極具吸引力的經濟效益。今年，3D NAND 技術帶來的密度大幅提升，推動了高階智慧型手機設備的內容成長強勁。綜合來看，未來幾年，非揮發性記憶體在消費終端市場將迎來強勁成長的巨大機遇，這主要得益於 AR、VR、5G 自動駕駛、機器人和其他物聯網應用等創新技術的推動。我們仍然對矽技術帶來的全球技術和應用革命的機會充滿熱情。在這些趨勢的影響下，記憶體供需平衡仍然緊張，我們的記憶體客戶有望創造創紀錄的業績，2017 年記憶體產業收入預計將首次超過 1,000 億美元。

Consistent with this demand driven-growth, our customers are planning incrementally higher capital spending levels both in DRAM and NAND. Underscoring our belief that spending levels are demand driven and sustainable, memory industry capital intensity is on track to remain stable at approximately 20%, consistent with long-term averages and well below prior cycle peaks of 30% to 35%. Nonmemory spending plans remain strong and essentially unchanged versus our prior expectations with a primary focus on technology inflections. Overall industry WFE spending is now tracking above the high ends of the previous range we provided, and we currently maintain a positive view on a strong customer spending environment once again in 2018.

與這種需求驅動的成長一致，我們的客戶計劃逐步提高 DRAM 和 NAND 的資本支出水準。我們堅信支出水平受需求驅動且可持續，記憶體行業的資本密集度預計將保持在 20% 左右的穩定水平，與長期平均水平一致，遠低於此前 30% 至 35% 的周期峰值。非儲存支出計畫依然強勁，與我們先前的預期基本一致，主要集中在技術變革方面。目前，整個產業的 WFE 支出已超過我們先前預測範圍的上限，我們對 2018 年強勁的客戶支出環境仍持樂觀態度。

The improvements in WFE this year has led to increased Lam performance expectations for the calendar year and now a relatively balanced outlook for our shipments first half to second half. Worthy of note, our full calendar year shipments are on track to significantly exceed the rates of WFE growth once again in 2017. Related, having previously highlighted the potential for calendar year shipments slightly below $9 billion, we now target slightly below $10 billion. This is a commentary of increased strategic relevance and effective scaling, also a commentary on the competitiveness of the right products and services at the right time.

今年 WFE 的改進提高了 Lam 對本年度業績的預期，目前我們對上半年和下半年的出貨量前景相對平衡。值得注意的是，我們的全年出貨量預計在 2017 年再次大幅超過 WFE 的成長率。先前我們曾指出日曆年出貨量可能略低於 90 億美元，現在我們的目標略低於 100 億美元。這是對策略相關性和有效規模化能力提升的評論，也是對在正確的時間提供正確的產品和服務的競爭力的評論。

As we target this new milestone of slightly less than $10 billion in annual shipments for calendar 2017, I would like to take a moment to reflect upon an incredible journey, a journey that provides the context for Lam's ability to continue to drive long-term sustainable and profitable growth for all our stakeholders.

在我們將於 2017 年實現年出貨量略低於 100 億美元的新里程碑之際，我想藉此機會回顧一下這段不可思議的旅程，這段旅程為 Lam 能夠繼續為我們所有利益相關者帶來長期可持續和盈利增長奠定了基礎。

10 years ago, Lam was a single-product etch company with an addressable market of 10 to 15 percentage points of WFE that was itself a highly cyclical and relatively low-growth market very leveraged to the PC. With solid strategy, execution and supports from our customers over the last 10 years, we succeeded in several important ways. We built Lam etch market share to an unmatched technology and market share position deep-rooted in our leading edge capabilities and our commitments to partnership with our customers. We transitioned from a single product company to a diversified multiproduct and services company extending from etch leadership into clean and the deposition markets.

10 年前，Lam 是一家單一產品蝕刻公司，其目標市場佔 WFE 的 10% 到 15%，而 WFE 本身是一個週期性很強、成長相對緩慢的市場，與 PC 密切相關。過去 10 年，憑藉穩健的策略、有效的執行以及客戶的支持，我們在幾個重要方面都取得了成功。我們憑藉領先的技術能力和對客戶合作的承諾，在 Lam 蝕刻市場建立了無與倫比的技術和市場份額地位。我們從單一產品公司轉型為多元化的多產品和服務公司，業務範圍從蝕刻領域的領先地位擴展到清潔和沈積市場。

Combined with a strong focus on identifying and positioning ahead of key technology inflections in semiconductor device manufacturing over many years, we have added over 20 percentage points to our addressable markets, which now exceeds 35% of WFE. Additionally, while further strengthening our leadership in memory, we have diversified our revenue exposure through a strengthened position in logic and foundry markets and, notably, our customer support business group through its innovative products, advanced services and productivity solutions, continues to deliver growth at a pace that is greater than our installed base unit growth.

多年來，我們一直致力於識別和掌握半導體裝置製造領域的關鍵技術轉折點，並以此為契機，使我們的目標市場擴大了 20 多個百分點，目前已超過 WFE 的 35%。此外，在進一步鞏固我們在記憶體領域的領先地位的同時，我們透過加強在邏輯和代工市場的地位，實現了收入來源多元化。尤其值得一提的是，我們的客戶支援業務集團憑藉其創新產品、先進服務和生產力解決方案，持續實現比我們已安裝基礎單元成長更快的成長。

Expansion of our served market and market share, combined with solid execution that delivered unmatched multiyear growth and value expansion, is the financial headline of Lam. But perhaps what is more important, relative to sustainability and value creation, is customer trust and the increased strategic relevance of Lam products and services to the success of our customers. As a statement of relative performance, we believe, the opportunity for Lam is compelling.

Lam 的財務亮點在於：我們服務市場和市場份額的擴張，​​以及穩健的執行力，實現了無與倫比的多年成長和價值擴張。但就永續性和價值創造而言，或許更重要的是客戶的信任，以及 Lam 產品和服務對客戶成功的日益增長的策略相關性。從相對錶現來看，我們認為林俊賢的機會非常誘人。

With a very strong foundation, I believe, we are today entering another's exciting phase in our evolution. Data is the new currency of the global economy. The collection, storage and analysis of big data to produce artificial intelligence and machine learning has the potential to change nearly every industry.

我相信，憑藉著非常堅實的基礎，我們今天正進入發展歷程中另一個令人興奮的階段。數據是全球經濟的新貨幣。利用大數據進行收集、儲存和分析，從而開發人工智慧和機器學習技術，有可能改變幾乎所有產業。

This trend, we believe, is leading to sustainably higher demand for memory spending. Indeed, memory capital spending has grown at a 20% CAGR over the last 4 years, about twice as fast as the growth rate of overall industry CapEx. Our analytics endorse the conviction of our customers to the sustainability of bit density and diverse applications demand growth and the discipline of their investments.

我們認為，這一趨勢將導致對記憶體支出的需求持續成長。事實上，在過去 4 年裡，記憶體資本支出以 20% 的複合年增長率成長，大約是整個產業資本支出成長率的兩倍。我們的分析證實了客戶對比特密度可持續性的信念，以及多樣化應用對成長和投資紀律的需求。

Lam technology and market leadership comes at a time when the semiconductor industry increasingly embraces vertical scaling as a key driver of performance improvement rather than simply traditional shrink. Vertical scaling is certainly a sweet spot for Lam. We have the highest market share in etch and deposition markets combined of any market participants. Our commitments and investments in R&D and a disciplined approach to product pipeline and road map over multiple years, combined with a focused operational execution and rapidly growing installed base, provide a consistent feedback loop to further solidify our positions of leadership.

Lam 的技術和市場領導地位正值半導體行業日益將垂直縮放視為性能提升的關鍵驅動力，而不僅僅是傳統的尺寸縮小之際。垂直擴展無疑是 Lam 的優勢所在。在蝕刻和沈積市場總份額方面，我們擁有所有市場參與者中最高的市場份額。多年來，我們對研發的投入和對產品線和路線圖的嚴格把控，加上專注的營運執行和快速增長的裝機量，形成了一個持續的反饋循環，進一步鞏固了我們的領導地位。

We will talk more about the opportunities we see in vertical scaling at a special reception that the company will be hosting on August 9 at the Flash Memory Summit Conference here in California. Rick Gottscho, our Chief Technology Officer, Satya and I very much look forward to engaging with many of you there.

我們將在公司於 8 月 9 日在加州舉行的閃存峰會上舉辦的特別招待會上，更詳細地討論我們在垂直擴展方面看到的機會。我們的技術長里克·戈特肖、薩蒂亞和我非常期待與各位交流。

As a preamble to our planned investor and analyst meeting in a few months, when we think about our future beyond the next several years, we believe our competitive and business strength, our operating capabilities and the environment around us all combine to create tangible opportunity for Lam to further deliver long-term value creation.

在幾個月後即將召開的投資者和分析師會議之前，當我們展望未來幾年之後的發展時，我們相信，我們的競爭力和業務實力、營運能力以及周圍的環境共同為林氏創造了切實的機會，使其能夠進一步創造長期價值。

We have built a strong global presence with core competencies in areas like nanoscale applications enablement, chemistry, plasma and fluidics, advanced systems engineering and expertise in manufacturing, supply chain and our sales channel, that each we believe are foundational to creating shareholder value in all current and future market opportunities.

我們已在全球範圍內建立了強大的影響力，並在奈米級應用賦能、化學、等離子體和流體、先進系統工程以及製造、供應鍊和銷售管道等領域擁有核心競爭力，我們相信這些核心競爭力對於在所有當前和未來的市場機遇中創造股東價值至關重要。

Our vision continues to optimize long-term and short-term success to the best of our abilities. Our vision continues to balance investing in the sustainable and profitable growth of Lam through the introduction of disruptive technology and incremental market offerings. Our vision is to realize full value from natural technology extensions of our company, and our vision includes an ongoing commitment to capital redistribution.

我們的願景是盡我們所能，不斷優化長期和短期成功。我們的願景是繼續平衡投資於 Lam 的可持續和獲利成長，透過引入顛覆性技術和增量市場產品來實現這一目標。我們的願景是充分發揮公司自然技術延伸的價值，並且我們的願景包括持續致力於資本再分配。

With that, let me turn the call over to Doug.

那麼，現在讓我把電話交給道格。

Okay, great. Thank you, Martin, and thank you all for joining us this afternoon during what I know is a busy earnings season. We're pleased with the results we have to share with you today for both the June quarter and for our just concluded fiscal year 2017. So let me go ahead and just jump into the numbers.

好的，太好了。謝謝馬丁，也謝謝各位在今天下午抽出時間參加我們的節目，我知道現在正是繁忙的財報季。我們很高興今天能與大家分享我們六月季度和剛結束的 2017 財年的業績。那我就直接進入正題，直接來看數據吧。

In the June quarter, we performed above the midpoint of guidance for all metrics. We delivered record levels of shipments, revenues, cash from operations, gross margin dollars, operating income dollars and earnings per share for the quarter and for the fiscal year. Each of these metrics achieved strong double-digit growth in fiscal year 2017 compared to the prior fiscal year. We believe these results and milestones clearly demonstrates solid execution against our multiyear outperformance objectives.

在六月的季度中，我們所有指標的業績都高於預期中位數。本季和本財年，我們的出貨量、收入、經營活動現金流、毛利、營業收入和每股盈餘均創歷史新高。與上一財年相比，2017 財年這些指標均實現了強勁的兩位數成長。我們相信，這些成果和里程碑清楚地表明，我們在實現多年超額績效目標方面取得了穩健的進展。

Our upward trajectory of shipments continued in June quarter coming in at $2,543,000,000, which is up 5% sequentially and above the midpoint of the guided range. Shipments for the 2017 fiscal year were $8,586,000,000, which was a 46% increase compared to fiscal year 2016.

6 月季度，我們的出貨量持續保持上升勢頭，達到 25.43 億美元，季增 5%，高於預期範圍的中點。2017 財年的出貨額為 85.86 億美元，比 2016 財年成長了 46%。

Memory shipments remained strong with the combined memory segment making up 73% of total system shipments, which was in line with the prior quarter. Nonvolatile memory accounted for 59% of the shipments, which was up from 50% in the March quarter. Demand for 3D NAND equipment continues to be robust with customers executing their plans for increasing layer counts and improving device densities. DRAM shipments represented 14% of system shipments, which was down from 23% in the prior quarter. Shipments to our foundry customers were 22% of system shipments in the June quarter, which was down a little from the 24% in the prior quarter. And finally, the Logic and Other segment accounted for 5% of system shipments versus 3% last quarter.

記憶體出貨量依然強勁，記憶體部分佔系統總出貨量的 73%，與上一季持平。非揮發性記憶體的出貨量佔總出貨量的 59%，高於 3 月季度的 50%。市場對 3D NAND 設備的需求仍然強勁，客戶正在執行增加層數和提高裝置密度的計畫。DRAM 出貨量佔系統出貨量的 14%，低於上一季的 23%。6 月季度，我們向代工廠客戶出貨的佔系統出貨量的 22%，比上一季的 24% 略有下降。最後，邏輯和其他部分佔系統出貨量的 5%，而上一季為 3%。

Revenues for the quarter were again at a record level of $2,345,000,000, which was an increase of 9% compared to the March quarter. For fiscal year 2017, the revenues of the company came in at $8,014,000,000, which was an increase of 36% compared to the prior fiscal year. Our installed base business contributed approximately 25% of our revenue in fiscal year 2017. The installed base now includes over 45,000 process modules and with that growth, comes an increasing opportunity to sell spare parts, upgrades, productivity solutions, system refurbishment and other innovative product offerings. We have solid momentum behind our objective to grow the installed base business faster than the growth of the installed base itself, which is an important component of the sustainable cash generation of the company.

本季營收再次創下歷史新高，達到 23.45 億美元，比 3 月季度成長了 9%。2017 財年，該公司營收達 80.14 億美元，比上一財年成長了 36%。2017 財年，我們的已安裝用戶業務貢獻了約 25% 的收入。目前已安裝超過 45,000 個製程模組，隨著這一增長，銷售備件、升級、生產力解決方案、系統翻新和其他創新產品的機會也越來越多。我們正朝著實現目標穩步前進，力求使已安裝基礎業務的成長速度超過已安裝基礎本身的成長速度，而這正是公司永續現金流的重要組成部分。

Gross margin came in above the midpoint of guidance at 46.5%, and as I've shared with you in the past, we expect variability in gross margin on a quarterly basis as a function of a number of factors such as business volume, product mix and customer concentration.

毛利率達到 46.5%，高於預期中位數。正如我之前與大家分享的那樣，我們預計毛利率會因業務量、產品組合和客戶集中度等多種因素而出現季度波動。

Operating expenses in the June quarter grew to $440 million, and that compares to $414 million in the March quarter. And of that OpEx spend, we increased the portion allocated to R&D to about 65%. We're very encouraged by the opportunities we see ahead of us and continue to make strategic investments in R&D programs over a multiyear horizon in support of our customers' road maps and plans.

6 月季度的營運支出成長至 4.4 億美元，而 3 月季度的營運支出為 4.14 億美元。在這些營運支出中，我們將分配給研發的比例增加到約 65%。我們對未來的機會感到非常鼓舞，並將繼續在多年期內對研發項目進行策略性投資，以支持客戶的路線圖和計畫。

Operating income in the June quarter was at a record level of $650 million, which was up over 12% from the prior quarter. Operating income grew at roughly twice the rate of operating expense demonstrating the leverage we have in our financial model and supporting our ability to make strategic investments to sustain our outperformance going forward. For the first time in the history of the company, operating income generated in the fiscal year topped $2 billion.

6 月季度的營業收入達到創紀錄的 6.5 億美元，比上一季成長超過 12%。營業收入的成長速度大約是營業支出的兩倍，這表明我們在財務模型中具有槓桿作用，並支持我們進行策略性投資以維持未來優異績效的能力。公司史上首次，本財年營業收入突破 20 億美元大關。

Operating margin for the quarter was 27.7%, which was up from 26.9% in March and at the high end of the guided range. The tax rate for the quarter was approximately 13% and that compares to 12% last quarter. The tax rate in the low- to middle-teens through the end of calendar year 2017 would be reasonable for you to include in your models.

本季營業利益率為 27.7%，高於 3 月的 26.9%，處於預期範圍的高端。本季稅率約為 13%，而上季為 12%。2017 年末之前的低至中等稅率，對於您來說，納入您的模型中是合理的。

Based on a share count of about 182 million shares, earnings per share for the June quarter came in at $3.11, which was near the high end of the guidance range. This share count includes dilution from both the 2018 and 2041 convertible notes with the total dilutive impact of about 18 million shares on a non-GAAP basis. And I'll remind you that dilution schedules for the 2018 and 2041 convertible notes are available on our Investor Relations website for your reference. And I would just mention that with the increase in our stock price, we have received requests for early conversions of our 2018 and 2041 convertible notes totaling about $300 million.

根據約 1.82 億股的股數計算，6 月季度的每股盈餘為 3.11 美元，接近預期範圍的上限。該股份數量包括 2018 年和 2041 年可轉換票據的稀釋，以非 GAAP 準則計算，總稀釋影響約為 1,800 萬股。我還要提醒各位，2018 年和 2041 年可轉換債券的稀釋時間表已發佈在我們的投資者關係網站上，供您參考。我還要提一下，隨著我們股價的上漲，我們收到了提前轉換 2018 年和 2041 年可轉換債券的請求，總額約為 3 億美元。

These requests will settle in cash and shares and are comprehended in our September outlook. We returned $587 million of cash to our shareholders during the quarter, $74 million in dividend distributions and $513 million in share repurchases executed largely through a $500 million accelerated share repurchase. The ASR terminated shortly after the close of our June fiscal quarter on June 30. Inclusive of the ASR, we have now completed about 70% of our current $1 billion buyback authorization, and we have repurchased 5.3 million shares at an average share price of $135.55.

這些請求將以現金和股票結算，並已納入我們9月份的展望中。本季我們向股東返還了 5.87 億美元現金，其中 7,400 萬美元為股息分配，5.13 億美元為股票回購，主要透過 5 億美元的加速股票回購計畫執行。ASR 在我們 6 月財政季度結束後不久，即 6 月 30 日終止。包括 ASR 在內，我們目前已完成約 70% 的 10 億美元回購授權，並以平均每股 135.55 美元的價格回購了 530 萬股。

Now let me transition to the balance sheet. Cash from operations was very strong at $729 million, which was up from $423 million in March. For the fiscal year, the company generated over $2 billion in cash from operations. During the quarter, cash and short-term investments, including our restricted cash, increased to $6.3 billion, which was up from $6.1 billion in March. The increase in cash balance was obviously the result of the cash from operations that we generated, offset largely by the capital return program that I referenced.

現在讓我來看看資產負債表。經營活動產生的現金流非常強勁，達到 7.29 億美元，高於 3 月的 4.23 億美元。本財年，該公司透過營運活動產生了超過 20 億美元的現金流。本季度，現金和短期投資（包括受限現金）增至 63 億美元，高於 3 月的 61 億美元。現金餘額的增加顯然是經營活動產生的現金所致，但很大程度上被我提到的資本回報計畫所抵銷。

Days sales outstanding improved to 65 days versus 69 days last quarter. Inventory turns were 4.1, down slightly from the 4.2 we saw in the March quarter.

應收帳款週轉天數從上季的 69 天改善至 65 天。庫存週轉率為 4.1，略低於 3 月季度的 4.2。

At the end of the quarter, deferred revenues were $966 million, which was up from $842 million in March. This number excludes $397 million in shipments to customers in Japan that will also revenue in future quarters. This Japan number was $260 million last quarter. And recall that these Japan shipments remained as inventory carried at cost on our balance sheet. And I'll just do the math for you. The combined deferred bucket now stands at over $1.3 billion as we exited June.

本季末，遞延營收為 9.66 億美元，高於 3 月的 8.42 億美元。該數字不包括向日本客戶發貨的價值 3.97 億美元的產品，這些產品也將在未來幾季產生收入。上個季度，日本的這一數字為2.6億美元。請記住，這些從日本發貨的貨物一直作為庫存，並按成本計入我們的資產負債表。我來幫你算算看。截至6月底，累計遞延款項已超過13億美元。

Company noncash expenses during the quarter included the following: $44 million for equity comp, $39 million for amortization and $40 million for depreciation. Capital expenditures were $35 million in the quarter, which was down from $44 million in March. We exited the quarter with approximately 9,100 regular full-time employees. The growth in headcount was in the factory and field in addition to the R&D organizations.

該季度公司非現金支出包括：股權補償 4,400 萬美元，攤提 3,900 萬美元，折舊 4,000 萬美元。本季資本支出為 3,500 萬美元，低於 3 月的 4,400 萬美元。本季末，我們約有9,100名正式全職員工。除了研發部門外，工廠和現場的員工人數也有所成長。

Now looking ahead, I'd like to provide our non-GAAP guidance for the September quarter. We expect shipments of $2,350,000,000 plus or minus $100 million. And as Martin mentioned, we are expecting a roughly balanced first half to second half shipment profile. We expect revenue of $2,450,000,000, again, plus or minus $100 million. As we sit here today, we expect that December is likely the high point for both shipments and revenue in calendar year 2017.

展望未來，我想提供我們9月季度的非GAAP業績指引。我們預計出貨量為 23.5 億美元，上下浮動 1 億美元。正如馬丁所提到的那樣，我們預計上半年和下半年的出貨量大致平衡。我們預計營收為 24.5 億美元，上下浮動 1 億美元。就目前情況來看，我們預計 2017 年 12 月可能是全年出貨量和收入的最高點。

We're expecting gross margin of 46.5% plus or minus 1 percentage point, forecasting operating margins of 28%, again, plus or minus 1 percentage point. And finally, we're forecasting earnings per share of $3.25 plus or minus $0.12 based on a share count of approximately 183 million shares.

我們預期毛利率為 46.5%，上下浮動 1 個百分點；預計營業利益率為 28%，上下浮動 1 個百分點。最後，我們根據約 1.83 億股的股票數量預測每股收益為 3.25 美元，上下浮動 0.12 美元。

We're obviously pleased with the financial performance of the company that we reported and guided today, and we believe we're well positioned with our portfolio of products and services to successfully pursue the opportunities ahead of us.

我們對今天公佈和預測的公司財務業績感到非常滿意，我們相信憑藉我們的產品和服務組合，我們已做好充分準備，成功把握未來的機會。

Operator, that concludes my prepared remarks. Martin and I would like to now open the call for questions.

操作員，我的發言到此結束。馬丁和我現在想開始接受提問。

(Operator Instructions) And we'll take our first question today from CJ Muse with Evercore ISI.

（操作說明）今天我們先來回答來自 Evercore ISI 的 CJ Muse 提出的問題。

You talked about memory as the driver of the upside to your outlook here. And just curious if you could put some numbers around how you're thinking about WFE for both DRAM and NAND this year and next? We'd love to hear your thoughts there.

你曾說過，記憶力是你樂觀態度的驅動力。我很好奇您能否具體談談您對今年和明年DRAM和NAND閃存WFE（閃存前端）的看法？我們很想聽聽您的想法。

Yes, I think, I'm not sure if we have that much to add, frankly, to everything that I've seen written, read by analysts or...

是的，說實話，我覺得我們似乎沒什麼好補充的了，我已經看過分析師們寫過、讀過的文章了…

It's all out there, CJ.

一切都在那裡，CJ。

Or other equipment companies. And frankly speaking, the primary purpose of this dialogue is to talk about the economics of the company not the industry. So what we've tried to articulate, CJ, is an enhanced view of performance this year. So the slightly less than $10 billion shipment reference is an important one and that's -- that embeds in it a commentary on SAM expansion and share growth. And we have opined on kind of the sustainability of spending and the strong kind of outlook for calendar '18. But as is customary, I'd like to take a shot at putting a quantitative reference at the beginning of the year and one at the end and let other people have their moment of glory in the middle.

或其他設備公司。坦白說，這次對話的主要目的是討論公司的經濟狀況，而不是產業的經濟狀況。所以，CJ，我們試圖表達的是今年對錶現更深刻的理解。因此，略低於 100 億美元的出貨量參考值非常重要，這其中蘊含著對 SAM 擴張和市佔率成長的評論。我們已經就支出的可持續性以及 2018 年的強勁前景發表了看法。但按照慣例，我想嘗試在年初和年末分別設定一個量化參考值，讓其他人在年中享受他們的榮耀時刻。

Okay. Let me ask another question then. If I look at what you discussed in terms of shipments and revenues for the full year, it looks like you are going to outgrow WFE roughly by 3x. And I guess, it's pretty outstanding performance and what's the encore next year? How should we think about your relative performance and changes technology-wise that can sustain continued outperformance into 2018, '19 and beyond?

好的。那我再問一個問題吧。如果我看一下你討論的全年出貨量和收入情況，看起來你的成長速度將比 WFE 快大約 3 倍。我想，這真是一場精彩的演出，那麼明年的安可演出是什麼呢？我們應該如何看待您的相對錶現以及能夠使您在 2018 年、2019 年及以後持續保持優異表現的技術變革？

Yes, I mean, I think we certainly have a view that the last 5 years and this year don't end at the end of this year. We're working really hard to make sure that there's an opportunity and demonstrated performance of sustainable growth and outperformance. And the best way to think about that, frankly, is to think about the commentary that we've made available around our products portfolio increasing its share of wafer fabrication equipment spending. So that comes about from our own investments in new products and capabilities and it comes about from what I believe is an unmatched positioning of this company to the totality of technology inflections in the industry. And it comes about through device architecture challenges, device architecture decisions and process flow decisions of our customers. So we have provided a quantitative reference today that says above 35% of WFE is what we believe we're competing for. You have all of the disclosure, I think, previously on market share and we see both trends as positive not just in next year but in the years to come. So there is an ebb and a flow always on a short-term basis, but I mean we feel really good about long-term demand for silicon-enabled innovation. We feel really good about discipline in the ecosystem, and we feel really good about the unique opportunities for this company.

是的，我的意思是，我認為我們肯定都認為過去 5 年和今年不會在今年年底結束。我們正在努力確保有機會實現永續成長和超額收益，並展現出相應的業績。坦白說，思考這個問題的最佳方式是思考我們圍繞產品組合發布的評論，這些評論表明我們的產品組合正在增加晶圓製造設備支出份額。這源自於我們對新產品和新能力的投資，也源自於我認為公司在產業技術變革中無與倫比的定位。這是由於客戶在設備架構挑戰、設備架構決策和流程決策上遇到的問題所造成的。因此，我們今天提供了一個量化參考值，表明我們認為我們正在爭奪的WFE（工作場所支出）佔比超過35%。我認為，之前已經披露了所有關於市場份額的信息，我們認為這兩個趨勢不僅在明年，而且在未來幾年都是積極的。所以短期內總會有起伏，但我的意思是，我們對矽基創新技術的長期需求感到非常樂觀。我們對生態系統的紀律性感到非常滿意，也對這家公司所擁有的獨特機會感到非常滿意。

Moving along, we'll take our next question from Farhan Ahmad with Credit Suisse.

接下來，我們將回答瑞士信貸的 Farhan Ahmad 的下一個問題。

Martin, can you just talk about the mix of spending between larger foundry and memory in the second half? The first half was really strong in terms of memory spending. Do you expect the second half to be pretty similar in mix? Or do you expect a change?

Martin，可以談談下半年大型晶圓代工廠和記憶體廠商之間的支出組合嗎？前半段在記憶體消耗方面表現非常強勁。你覺得下半場的曲目編排會跟下半場差不多嗎？還是你期待改變？

Yes. So obviously, there's some company disclosure, which is reasonable balance in shipments first half and second half. When we look at kind of WFE, I think a more or less memory as an aggregated segment is actually also pretty balanced with kind of DRAM a little stronger in the second half and NAND was a little stronger in the first half. And similarly, kind of foundry and kind of microprocessor as a logic kind of balance themselves out as well. So foundry was a little stronger in the first half, and we believe microprocessor and other logic is a little stronger in the second half. So kind of, all in, pretty balanced spending year is the one that we would assume today.

是的。顯然，公司披露了一些信息，使得上半年和下半年的出貨量保持了合理的平衡。當我們從 WFE 的角度來看，我認為記憶體作為一個整體，其發展實際上也相當均衡，DRAM 在後半段略強一些，而 NAND 在前半段略強一些。同樣，晶片製造和微處理器作為一種邏輯，也起到了一種平衡作用。因此，晶圓代工在上半年表現稍強一些，我們認為微處理器和其他邏輯元件在下半年表現會稍強。所以，總的來說，今年的支出相當平衡。

Got it. And then I just wanted to ask you a question about the overall services business. If I assume that, that mix of business is pretty flat from last year because I believe at the end of last year also, you had indicated that 25% of the revenue. So the services business has grown at an extremely fast rate this year. Can you talk about what has driven that exceptional level of growth which could be about 40% or more from last year to this year?

知道了。然後，我也想問您一個關於整個服務業的問題。如果我假設如此，那麼該業務組合與去年基本持平，因為我相信在去年年底，您也曾表示收入的 25%。所以今年服務業的成長速度非常快。您能否談談是什麼因素推動瞭如此驚人的成長，今年的成長幅度可能比去年高出40%甚至更多？

Yes. I mean, it's inevitably kind of 2 or 3 things. One part of the growth of the installed base business, which is in spare parts and services and upgrades and refurbishments is the size of the installed base. And as Doug talked about in his prepared comments, the installed base has grown significantly in the last 5 years. So that's kind of baseline, number one. The second element of this is the breadth of products and services that we've made available to the industry and I think the industry's natural inclination to take a greater advantage of the full portfolio of productivity solutions, so the installed base business spares and service and upgrades and refurbishment is all about productivity, generally speaking. It's about making an installed base more productive. And as we've talked about for many, many years, as an industry, the technology challenges don't get any easier but that's also true for productivity challenges. So as we introduce advanced products and services focused on productivity and so on and so forth, that plays into the performance of the company. Last thing I would say is that as the technical specifications of device manufacturing are more difficult, that naturally also plays into an enhancement of some elements of the installed base support business.

是的。我的意思是，這必然是兩到三件事造成的。已安裝基礎業務（包括備件、服務、升級和翻新）成長的一部分原因是已安裝基礎的規模。正如道格在事先準備好的發言稿中所說，過去 5 年裡，用戶基數顯著成長。所以，這是基本情況，第一點。第二個因素是我們向業界提供的產品和服務的廣度，我認為業界自然傾向於更好地利用全套生產力解決方案，因此，安裝基礎業務備件、服務、升級和翻新，總的來說都是為了提高生產力。其目的是提高現有用戶的生產力。正如我們多年來一直在討論的那樣，作為一個行業，技術挑戰只會越來越少，生產力挑戰也是如此。因此，當我們推出以提高生產力等為重點的先進產品和服務時，這會影響公司的表現。最後我想說的是，隨著設備製造的技術規格越來越複雜，這自然也會促進已安裝基礎支援業務某些方面的提升。

Our next question today comes from Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

今天我們提出的下一個問題來自摩根大通的哈蘭‧蘇爾。

Maybe stepping back a bit and sort of looking at the end markets supply and demand dynamics. We had 2 relatively big memory customers report recently. The CapEx outlook by both looks very healthy and the view by both is, on a go-forward basis, CapEx trends look good on a go-forward basis. That's also in line with some of your prepared commentary. But the market seems to be interpreting higher CapEx as new capacity, new wafer starts especially in DRAM so it's raising some cyclical red flags here. Given your forward pipeline, your visibility, do you guys see any signs that there will be meaningful uptick in total DRAM industry wafer starts this year or next year? Or is more of the DRAM spend focused on accelerating technology migrations on the installed base?

或許應該退後一步，從終端市場的供需動態角度來看這個問題。最近有兩家規模較大的記憶體客戶向我們反映了問題。雙方對資本支出前景的展望都非常樂觀，並且都認為，從長遠來看，資本支出趨勢良好。這也與你事先準備好的一些評論相符。但市場似乎將更高的資本支出解讀為新的產能、新的晶圓開工，尤其是在DRAM領域，因此引發了一些週期性危險訊號。鑑於你們的未來發展規劃和市場前景，你們認為今年或明年DRAM產業晶圓總開工量會有顯著成長的跡象嗎？或者，DRAM 的更多支出是否集中在加速現有設備的技術升級？

Yes, I would say, to the best of our abilities, the answer to your question is no. We do not see meaningful expansion of an installed base. Clearly, compared to last year, the investment level in calendar '17 in DRAM is significantly improved and enhanced. But I think, a couple of references for you, we do not believe that the installed base in terms of wafer starts of output is any greater at the end of this calendar year than was true at the end of calendar '15, statement number one. Statement number two, when you look at kind of capital intensity of memory at the segment level and look at kind of DRAM specifically, it's a long way from kind of creating kind of the anxiety levels that we think would be relevant to kind of cyclical imbalance. So we have the same conviction that I think is expressed by all, if not most of our customers, around disciplined investment, which doesn't mean it's perfect. I'm sure there's an ebb and a flow from 1 week and 1 month from 1 quarter to the next. But the fundamental headlines around content and density and demand and how that's playing out in terms of spending in a consolidated industry, I think, are pretty healthy.

是的，就我們所能給出的答案而言，您的問題的答案是否定的。我們沒有看到用戶基數出現實質成長。顯然，與去年相比，2017 年 DRAM 的投資水準有了顯著提高和增強。但我認為，這裡有一些參考資料供您參考，我們認為，就晶圓開工量而言，本日曆年末的裝機量並不比 2015 年末更大，這是第一條聲明。第二點，當你從記憶體的資本密集度角度來看待內存，特別是從 DRAM 的角度來看，它距離造成我們認為與週期性失衡相關的焦慮程度還很遠。因此，我們和所有（如果不是大多數）客戶一樣，都堅信要進行有紀律的投資，但這並不意味著它是完美的。我確信，一周、一個月以及一個季度到下一個季度之間都會有起伏。但圍繞著內容、密度和需求以及這些因素在整合後的行業中的支出情況的基本新聞，我認為是相當健康的。

And then on the installed base business, obviously, great to see the continued growth trends there, very stable annuity-like business. I'm assuming that you guys are also driving leverage in this segment. Maybe, Doug, if you could comment on services, op margin performance versus corporate margins. Are service up margins accretive to corporate average? And are you guys able to drive the same amount of leverage that you are for the total business?

至於已安裝用戶群業務，顯然很高興看到業務持續成長，這是一個非常穩定的、類似年金的業務。我猜你們也在這個領域發揮影響力。道格，或許你可以談談服務業的營運利潤率與公司整體利潤率之間的關係。服務提升利潤率是否會提高公司平均利潤率？你們能否像對整個業務一樣，對公司施加同樣大的影響？

Yes. No, it's a very nice part of the business model. It's very cash generative. As I think I've indicated before, it's probably a little bit accretive to the operating income on a percentage basis. It doesn't have anywhere near the amount of investment that is required in the new equipment side. But what I really like about it, Harlan, is the broad base of it. It's got many, many, many engagements, lots of customers. It's just a very stable predictable business, and your characterization of an annuity is exactly right. It is a great part of the business model.

是的。不，這是商業模式中非常好的一部分。它非常能帶來現金流。正如我之前提到的，從百分比來看，這可能會略微增加營業收入。它所需的投資遠不及新設備方面所需的投資金額。但哈蘭，我真正喜歡它的一點是它廣泛的受眾基礎。它有很多很多互動，有很多客戶。這是一個非常穩定且可預測的業務，你對年金的描述完全正確。這是商業模式的重要組成部分。

Moving along, our next question comes from Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

接下來，我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

I have 2 questions. First, on the opportunity in China, if you can talk a little bit about some of the developments over the past couple of quarters both on the memory side and on the foundry side? Martin, if you can talk a little bit about how you view the second half of '17 and, more importantly, longer term?

我有兩個問題。首先，關於中國市場的機遇，您能否談談過去幾季在記憶體和晶圓代工方面的一些發展？馬丁，你能否談談你對2017年下半年以及更重要的，更長遠的未來有何看法？

Yes. I mean, again, I'm not sure I have kind of too much to say incrementally here. As we said for the last couple of quarters, we believe that the China is an increasingly important part of the industry measured by the level of spending. Today's spending in China is dominated by the global player presence in China. But this is a year where there is a foundry DRAM and a flash investment by the domestic Chinese community. And as is consistent with I'm sure every disclosure from every other significant equipment company, we're participating in that as you might expect, and our presence and our plants in China are at least as good as our [average], so it's an important region with an important focus for us. And we would still say today that calendar '18 is a bigger story than calendar '17 for kind of China. So certainly that plays into our qualitative statements that we believe calendar '18 is a strong year for the industry.

是的。我的意思是，再說一遍，我不太確定我在這裡還有什麼可說的。正如我們在過去幾個季度所說的那樣，我們認為，以支出水平衡量，中國在行業中的重要性日益凸顯。如今，中國市場的消費主要由全球企業在中國的業務所主導。但今年，中國國內業界對代工廠DRAM和快閃記憶體進行了投資。正如我確信其他所有重要設備公司披露的資訊一樣，我們也參與其中，正如你所預料的那樣，我們在中國的業務和工廠至少與我們的平均水平一樣好，因此中國是我們重點關注的重要地區。時至今日，我們仍然會說，對於中國而言，2018 年曆比 2017 年曆更值得關注。因此，這無疑也印證了我們的定性觀點，即我們認為 2018 年是該行業表現強勁的一年。

Okay, great. And then my second question was on the Logic business. Martin, I think you briefly talked about shipments being a little bit stronger into the second half relative to the first half. But longer term, obviously, this is a part of the market where you've historically been under indexed. And at the same time, you talked about some wins at the 10-nanometer node. So I guess from a timing perspective, when should we expect this part of your business to inflect to the upside in a more meaningful way?

好的，太好了。我的第二個問題是關於 Logic 業務的。馬丁，我想你剛才簡要地提到過，下半年的出貨量比上半年略有成長。但從長遠來看，顯然，這是你歷來投資不足的市場領域。同時，您也談到了 10 奈米節點取得的一些勝利。所以我想從時間角度來看，我們應該何時才能看到貴公司這部分業務出現更顯著的改善呢？

I mean, I guess that it's always true that it shows that when customer spend money on the applications, you've won. There's no pendulum swing here. This is kind of a multiple year transition, and we're super pleased about the progress, which doesn't mean it can't be better and it doesn't mean our aspirations aren't greater than we currently have achieved. But we're walking towards an objective where the position of the company in Logic is at least as good if not better than the position of the company in Foundry. And it will take a number of technology nodes to get to that point and we're not there today, but I'm super pleased with our progress. And the comments on Logic and Foundry, I mean, I don't want to miss the Foundry headline, which we talked about last year. The performance of the company in Foundry last year against the average of the industry I thought was just outstanding. So I think we reported 40% increase year-over-year compared to that of 25% assumption on WFE. So it's going to take a couple of nodes to kind of fully realize our ambition if we're successful in all respects. And we're certainly working hard to achieve that.

我的意思是，我想這總是沒錯的，當客戶在應用程式上花錢時，你就贏了。這裡不存在鐘擺效應。這是一個需要數年時間的過渡過程，我們對所取得的進展感到非常滿意，但這並不意味著它不能做得更好，也不意味著我們的抱負沒有比我們目前所取得的成就更高的目標。但我們正在朝著一個目標邁進，那就是公司在 Logic 領域的地位至少要和公司在 Foundry 領域的地位一樣好，甚至更好。要達到那個目標需要很多技術節點，我們今天還沒有達到，但我對我們所取得的進展感到非常滿意。至於 Logic 和 Foundry 的評論，我的意思是，我不想錯過 Foundry 的頭條新聞，我們去年就討論過這個問題。我認為該公司去年在鑄造領域的表現遠超行業平均水平，非常出色。所以我認為，我們報告的年成長率為 40%，而 WFE 的假設值為 25%。所以，如果我們各方面都取得成功，那麼還需要幾個節點才能完全實現我們的目標。我們當然正在努力實現這一目標。

And Toshi, it will be stronger in the second half than it was in the first half for sure.

可以肯定的是，Toshi在下半場的表現會比上半場更強。

Our next question today comes from Edwin Mok with Needham & Company.

今天我們提出的下一個問題來自 Needham & Company 的 Edwin Mok。

This is actually Arthur on for Edwin. Martin, I had a question for you on your natural -- your comment on natural technology extensions. So a number of your peers have talked about increasing metrology intensity going hand-in-hand with more complex 3D NAND devices. Given your leadership in 3D NAND, how do you think about your product perform in terms of metrology? Does it make sense to offer metrology system under the same roof to provide a more comprehensive solution?

實際上這是亞瑟代替埃德溫上台。馬丁，我有一個關於你對自然技術擴展的評論的問題。因此，許多同行都談到，隨著更複雜的 3D NAND 裝置的出現，計量強度的提高是相輔相成的。鑑於貴公司在 3D NAND 領域的領先地位，您如何看待貴公司產品在計量學方面的表現？將計量系統集中在同一屋簷下，以提供更全面的解決方案，這種做法是否合理？

Didn't we try that strategy? And I mean, I guess I wasn't at the heart necessarily of kind of the Lam and K-T ambition, but it was an inevitable kind of part of that strategy. Today's kind of process control ambition, metrology ambition is really kind of defined around a couple of things. One of them is that the real-time process control kind of dialogue and the second is the potential for some level of integrated metrology. So we've articulated our ambition, I think, in terms of SAM expansion on that, and the second part of our strategy is to increase the competitiveness of our underlying etch and deposition and clean products by dealing with one of the most fundamental challenges of the industry, which is tighter specs and the need to open up device design and device manufacturing process window. So that's where our focus is. So my comments around kind of natural technology extensions were intended to be a little bit more holistic than kind of metrology and process control. And really this is kind of like not a new headline or a new thought in the company, but I feel like consistent frankly with the trends of most of the industry participants, I wanted to make sure that everybody understands that we think holistically about how best to harness value from all of the assets and all of the strengths of the company. And so when we look at that, obviously, our vision is to create sustainable, profitable and kind of accretive growth for the company. And by natural extensions, we mean focusing on kind of the assets and the strengths of the company as currently defined, with the requirement for kind of high-confidence business plans and leverage in our financial models. So it's an emerging investment for the company. It's still quite small. I would say, the investment by the company in products and services markets beyond our core is in the $20 million to $30 million range probably for the year. But I think it's an important part of the long-term vision for the future of the company.

我們不是試過那種策略嗎？我的意思是，我可能並非林和K-T雄心壯志的核心人物，但這卻是該戰略中不可避免的一部分。當今的過程控制目標和計量目標實際上是圍繞著以下幾個方面定義的。其中之一是即時製程控制類型的對話，其次是某種程度的整合計量的可能性。因此，我認為，我們已經闡明了我們在 SAM 擴展方面的雄心壯志，而我們策略的第二部分是透過應對業界中最根本的挑戰之一（即更嚴格的規格以及打開裝置設計和裝置製造流程視窗的需要）來提高我們底層蝕刻、沉積和清洗產品的競爭力。所以這就是我們關注的重點。因此，我對自然技術擴展的評論旨在比計量和製程控制更全面一些。其實這並不算什麼新鮮事，也不是什麼新想法，但我覺得這與大多數業內人士的趨勢一致，我想確保每個人都明白，我們是從整體上思考如何最好地利用公司所有資產和優勢的價值。因此，當我們審視這一點時，很顯然，我們的願景是為公司創造可持續的、有利可圖的、具有增值潛力的成長。而所謂自然延伸，是指專注於公司目前所定義的資產和優勢，同時要求制定高置信度的商業計劃，並在我們的財務模型中運用槓桿。所以這對公司來說是一項新興投資。它仍然很小。我認為，該公司今年在核心業務以外的產品和服務市場的投資可能在 2,000 萬至 3,000 萬美元之間。但我認為這是公司未來長期願景的重要組成部分。

Just a quick follow-up question on -- ASML talked about the progress they've made with their EUV tool and the potential that it can address up to 15 layers upon insertion of 7-nanometer. Given your strength in etch and deposition, has that in any way shaped your initial view on your patterning opportunity? And do you believe that Lam's well position remained competitive due to improving economics of your multipatterning processes?

關於 ASML 談到他們在 EUV 工具方面取得的進展以及插入 7 奈米後最多可以處理 15 層的潛力，我還有一個後續問題。鑑於您在蝕刻和沈積方面的優勢，這是否在某種程度上影響了您對圖案化機會的最初看法？您認為 Lam 的井場地位保持競爭力是因為貴公司多圖案化製程的經濟效益不斷提高嗎？

Yes, I think it's a really good point. Actually, I mean, every single day from us and every other participant is delivering litho-multipatterning schemes or spacer-based multipatterning schemes. We're making the economics better. And to answer the first part of your question, no, the disclosures recently and the editorial hasn't changed our fundamental view of our opportunity. We still believe we have SAM expansions through the 5-nanometer technology node that we've currently kind of articulated in the analyst meeting. We triangulate around public statements and private statements from all of the industry participants that all kind of talk to us. We feel like we have a nice opportunity. We have decent strength and our focus is on controlling the things that we can control and making the best of it. So nothing new to say and one big part of the economics of the company, quite frankly, has been multipatterning and memory and logic both.

是的，我認為這是一個很好的觀點。實際上，我的意思是，我們和其他所有參與者每天都在提供光刻多重圖案化方案或基於間隔層的多重圖案化方案。我們正在改善經濟狀況。至於你問題的第一部分，不，最近的披露和社論並沒有改變我們對自身機會的根本看法。我們仍然相信，透過 5 奈米技術節點，我們可以實現 SAM 的擴展，這在我們目前在分析師會議上已經闡述過了。我們綜合考慮了所有與我們進行過交流的業內人士的公開聲明和私下聲明，進行三角驗證。我們覺得我們遇到了一個很好的機會。我們擁有相當的實力，我們的重點是控制我們能夠控制的事情，並做到最好。所以沒什麼新內容好說，坦白講，公司經濟的很大一部分都是多模式、記憶和邏輯。

Moving on, our next question comes from Krish Sankar with Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

接下來，我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行美林證券的 Krish Sankar。

I had a couple, number one, Martin, if you look at the WFE spend on 3D NAND, obviously, it's really healthy driven by end demand is obviously greenfield, the yields are pretty low, there's some conversion from 2D to 3D. Kind of curious if any one of those vectors slows down, do you think 3D NAND can sustain current levels? Or are you worried about that going forward?

我有兩個問題，首先，Martin，如果你看看 WFE 在 3D NAND 上的支出，很明顯，這主要受終端需求驅動，而且顯然是全新的，良率相當低，有一些是從 2D 向 3D 的轉換。我很好奇，如果這些向量中的任何一個速度減慢，你認為 3D NAND 還能維持目前的電流水平嗎？還是你擔心這種情況未來會如何發展？

Well, I mean, I think the fundamental thing we look at is demand, right, which is not so much a units conversation these days. It's a content conversation and when you kind of look at this year and you look at the road map for smartphone content and service content particularly, I mean, I think that's the most important commentary around sustainability of spending because the spending, despite very critical and strategic technology transition this year, is predominantly defined around the importance of responding to demand and keeping supply and demand in balance to the best of our customers' ability. And as an industry participant, we're trying to support that. So when I think about kind of how they spend money, greenfield or conversion to 2D to 3D or 3D scaling, as we articulated in our analyst meeting, we are actually agnostic to how they go execute. If you look at the unique elements of the Lam Research serviceable markets, there are pretty similar opportunities for us in both implementations. And our view today is it's quite similar to the view we had a couple of months ago. More or less, the 3D capable capacity in NAND installed base at the end of the year will be approximately half of the installed base, which is not to say the transition is kind of half done because in the context of the demand message and the technology road map for this particular inflection, I mean, there's a lot of years of opportunity ahead of us, and we're certainly excited about participating and enabling to the extent that we can the success of our customers.

嗯，我的意思是，我認為我們關注的根本是需求，對吧，而如今這已經不再是數量上的討論了。這是一個關於內容的對話，當你回顧今年，特別是智慧型手機內容和服務內容的路線圖時，我認為這是關於支出可持續性的最重要評論，因為儘管今年的技術轉型非常關鍵和具有戰略意義，但支出主要還是圍繞著響應需求的重要性，並儘最大努力保持供需平衡，以服務好我們的客戶。作為行業參與者，我們正在努力支持這一點。所以，當我思考他們如何花錢，無論是新建項目還是從 2D 到 3D 的轉換，或者 3D 擴展，正如我們在分析師會議上闡述的那樣，我們實際上對他們如何執行持中立態度。如果你仔細觀察 Lam Research 服務市場的獨特要素，你會發現這兩個實施方案對我們來說都蘊含著非常相似的機會。我們今天的觀點與幾個月前的觀點非常相似。到年底，NAND 快閃記憶體中具備 3D 列印能力的容量將大致占到總容量的一半，但這並不意味著轉型已經完成了一半，因為就當前的需求形勢和技術路線圖而言，我們未來還有很多年的機遇，我們當然非常高興能夠參與其中，並儘我們所能幫助客戶取得成功。

Got it, got it. That's very helpful. And then another question on the DRAM side. I think you did articulate the fact that nothing a whole lot of capacity expansion. And clearly last year was a cyclical low for DRAM CapEx. And this year, we're still below 2015 levels. Is it purely a function of the fact that the number of process steps is increasing as you go below 20 nanometer, it's more difficult to do? That's why even though optically looks like CapEx is higher, it's not really as high as you think you're expected to be?

明白了，明白了。那很有幫助。然後還有一個關於DRAM方面的問題。我認為你已經清楚地表達了這樣一個事實：產能擴張並不大。顯然，去年是DRAM資本支出週期性的低谷。今年，我們仍然低於 2015 年的水準。是否只是因為當尺寸小於 20 奈米時，製程步驟的數量會增加，導致製造難度增加？所以即使表面上看資本支出似乎更高，但實際上並沒有你想像的那麼高？

I don't know if we're completely qualified to answer the full scope of your question. I mean, I will tell you for our piece of the pie, and this is true in most every part of the industry, the investment in a given kind of wafer out kind of goes up in technology inflections. And the trick for our customers, obviously, is making sure that the density in this case or the number of chips on the surface of a wafer goes up in proportion to the increase in kind of cost. And as I think it's well publicized at this point in time, the most challenging part of the semiconductor kind of road map from kind of long-term perspective is DRAM. Although frankly speaking, there's kind of 3 or 4 nodes, depending on how you define it in the road map that we have with customers in front of us. Today, by the end of this year, we estimate that only 25% of the installed base is actually at the 1x technology nodes. So there's kind of a decent amount of sustainability and value proposition, I think, in front of the industry and for DRAM.

我不知道我們是否完全有資格回答您問題的全部內容。我的意思是，我可以告訴你，就我們所能分得的那份蛋糕而言，這種情況在行業的各個方面都存在，對特定類型晶圓生產的投資會在技術拐點處增加。顯然，對我們的客戶來說，關鍵在於確保晶圓表面的晶片密度（或晶片數量）與成本的增加成正比。而且我認為，目前大家也普遍認為，從長遠來看，半導體發展路線圖中最具挑戰性的部分是DRAM。坦白說，根據我們與客戶共同製定的路線圖，這裡有 3 到 4 個節點，具體數量取決於我們如何定義。今天，我們估計到今年年底，實際安裝的設備中只有 25% 是 1x 技術節點。所以我認為，對於整個產業和 DRAM 而言，永續性和價值主張都相當不錯。

Our next question today comes from Patrick Ho with Stifel.

今天我們提出的下一個問題來自 Stifel 公司的 Patrick Ho。

Martin, first in terms of the capital intensity trend particularly for etch and deposition, where we're seeing growth in the percentage of the spend of those 2 areas. Given some of that continued changing dynamics of the industry, do you see both of them continuing to increase maybe at a more moderate level? Or does it soon flatten out particularly if EUV comes into play?

Martin，首先就資本密集度趨勢而言，特別是蝕刻和沈積方面，我們看到這兩個領域的支出百分比正在成長。鑑於產業動態的不斷變化，您認為這兩項指標是否會繼續成長，但成長可能會更加溫和？或者，如果採用極紫外光微影技術，這種情況會很快趨於平穩嗎？

No, I think we have articulated as precisely as we can do in our analyst meeting and I pulled the slides and update the slides for the WFE assumptions that you think are most relevant. But we've articulated with assumptions we made that I think more or less is being reinforced by other disclosures since we made them, insertions in second phase of 7-nanometer and insertions planned in DRAM. Our serviceable market increases through the end of this decade and probably slightly beyond. So on that one axis, as I said, it's a nice opportunity for us and one we're continue to be very focused on.

不，我認為我們在分析師會議上已經盡可能精確地闡述過了，我已經拿出了幻燈片，並根據您認為最相關的 WFE 假設更新了幻燈片。但我們已經闡明了我們所做的假設，我認為這些假設或多或少得到了我們作出這些假設之後其他披露的證實，例如 7 奈米製程第二階段的插入以及計劃在 DRAM 中插入的插入。我們的服務市場將在本十年末及之後略有成長。所以，正如我所說，從這個角度來看，這對我們來說是一個很好的機會，我們將繼續非常關注這一點。

Right. That's helpful. And excuse me, Doug, you talked about R&D being 65% of total OpEx. On a going-forward basis, given some of the projects you have in hand, do you see that percentage potentially increasing as you keep kind of SG&A as flat as you can? Or is 65% kind of the right run rate we should be looking at?

正確的。那很有幫助。不好意思，道格，你之前說過研發費用佔總營運支出的 65%。展望未來，考慮到您目前手頭上的一些項目，您是否認為在盡可能保持銷售、一般及行政費用不變的情況下，該百分比有可能增加？或者說，65% 的運行率是不是我們應該關注的比較合理的水平？

Yes, Patrick, we're going to keep trying to drive that higher obviously. That's the good kind of spending that generates growth in the future. It's not to say every quarter it's going to be up, but on a year-on-year basis, the way we will manage and run the spending of the company will be to try to allow that to grow and still keep the discipline around the financial model in total and by so doing get more efficient in SG&A.

是的，派崔克，我們顯然會繼續努力把這個數字推得更高。這是能促進未來成長的良性支出。這並不是說每個季度都會成長，但從年度來看，我們將管理和營運公司支出的方式是，盡量允許支出成長，同時保持財務模型的整體紀律，從而提高銷售、一般及行政費用的效率。

Our next question today comes from Tom Diffely with D.A. Davidson.

今天的下一個問題來自 D.A. Davidson 的 Tom Diffely。

Another question on the service side of the business. Is the strength that you're seeing there, is that also a reflection of 200-millimeter strength in the industry? Or is not that a big part of that equation?

關於業務服務方面還有另一個問題。你看到的這種強度，是否也反映了 200 毫米口徑在業界的強度？或者說，這不是其中很重要的一環嗎？

Well it's part of the equation, obviously, and I'd extend maybe that comment beyond the wafer side statements and kind of talk about the non-leading-edge investments of our customers as well. This is a year where, again, the investment levels in 28-nanometer and above, for example, are significant. And so in the kind of so-called trailing-edge technology nodes and even 200-millimeter wafer fabs, as Doug said, we're engaging a lot of fabs around the world, hundreds of fabs around the world, and we're engaged in every active wafer size and technology node. And certainly in the scheme of IoT road maps, particularly in the broad set of systems integration that is now kind of the reality for the semiconductor industry, the full spectrum of devices, the full spectrum of wafer sizes continues to be the focus for -- as I said before, truly optimizing the value we deliver to customers and truly optimizing the value we create for our shareholders. That's another kind of version, frankly, of harnessing the full value from the company and natural technology extension bringing kind of expertise and wisdom that we've developed in 300 and making it available wherever we can.

當然，這肯定是問題的一部分，我或許應該把這個評論擴展到晶圓方面的聲明之外，也談談我們客戶在非尖端技術方面的投資。今年，例如，在 28 奈米及以上製程領域的投資水準再次顯著提高。因此，正如道格所說，在所謂的尖端技術節點，甚至是 200 毫米晶圓廠中，我們正在與世界各地的許多晶圓廠合作，數百家晶圓廠，我們參與了所有活躍的晶圓尺寸和技術節點。當然，在物聯網路線圖的規劃中，尤其是在半導體產業目前普遍採用的系統整合方面，各種裝置和各種晶圓尺寸仍然是重點——正如我之前所說，真正優化我們為客戶提供的價值，並真正優化我們為股東創造的價值。坦白說，這是另一種利用公司和自然技術延伸的全部價值的方式，將我們在 300 年積累的專業知識和智慧帶到任何地方。

And Tom, just to add on, as IoT takes off and these analog-y, sense-y kind of devices proliferate, the trailing edge is going to be more and more important over time. So not necessarily just 200 as Martin pointed out, but trailing-edge capacity between 200 and 300 is something we're certainly very focused on.

湯姆，補充一點，隨著物聯網的興起和這些模擬的、感知型設備的普及，後緣技術將隨著時間的推移變得越來越重要。所以，正如馬丁指出的那樣，不一定非得是 200，但我們確實非常關注 200 到 300 之間的後緣容量。

Okay, great. And then a follow-up. We're trying to hear a little bit more about some domestic OEM semi cap players as well. Is there anything that changes the landscape as far as the competitive front goes?

好的，太好了。然後還有後續報道。我們也想多了解一些國內的半導體OEM廠商的情況。競爭格局方面是否有任何改變？

I'm not sure I understood the question, Tom. Domestic OEM?

湯姆，我不太確定我是否理解了你的問題。國內OEM廠商？

Just some Chinese domestic players.

只是一些中國國內的玩家。

Oh it's China.

哦，那是中國。

I don't think there is a headline of significance. We obviously respect everybody that we get to compete with. And with rare exceptions, the players that exist in China today have been players that have been there for some years. And we wish them well but we do our best to excel in the markets worldwide including China. So nothing, nothing new to articulate today.

我認為沒有什麼值得關注的新聞標題。我們當然尊重所有與我們競爭的對手。除了極少數例外，如今在中國踢球的球員大多都是已經在中國踢球多年的球員。我們祝福他們一切順利，但我們會盡最大努力在全球市場（包括中國市場）取得優異成績。所以今天沒什麼新內容要說。

Yes, we are pretty good at doing what we do, Tom. We spent $1 billion in R&D, so it's hard to compete with that level of scale. Not that as Martin pointed out, we're not paying attention to everybody and paranoid about everybody, but it's hard to do this stuff that we're doing.

是的，我們很擅長我們所做的事情，湯姆。我們在研發上投入了10億美元，所以很難與這種規模的公司競爭。正如馬丁指出的那樣，並不是說我們沒有關注每個人，也沒有對每個人抱持偏執，而是說，做我們正在做的這些事情很困難。

Our next question today comes from Craig Ellis with B. Riley.

今天我們提出的下一個問題來自 B. Riley 的 Craig Ellis。

The first was just an operational question. Martin, to follow up on a point that you made that the company is getting to a $10 billion in annual shipment levels and congratulations on that milestone. The growth from $5 billion to $10 billion has been very fast and the company's managed that very efficiently. As you look at the next leg of growth for Lam, what are the biggest challenges to maintaining the same level of efficiency that you've had from $5 billion to $10 billion to whether it's $12 billion or $14 billion in shipments?

第一個問題只是操作方面的問題。Martin，關於你剛才提到的公司年出貨量即將達到 100 億美元這一里程碑，我表示祝賀。公司營收從 50 億美元成長到 100 億美元的速度非常快，而且公司管理得非常有效率。展望 Lam 的下一個成長階段，您認為在出貨量達到 120 億美元或 140 億美元時，維持從 50 億美元到 100 億美元所取得的效率水準的最大挑戰是什麼？

Well, the gray hair transition for me is done so now it's about losing hair, I guess, for the next (inaudible)

嗯，我的白髮過渡期已經結束了，所以接下來我想，就是掉頭髮了（聽不清楚）

So you get a little lighter?

所以你感覺輕了一點？

Yes, and I'm taking care of that for you, Martin.

是的，我會為你處理的，馬丁。

So frankly speaking, I appreciate your recognition, number one, and your statement about efficiency. It's really hard to scale the company at the pace we are over a multiple year period. And I'll speak again to the employees and the suppliers and the customers, quite frankly, doing partnership kind of make all of this possible. We take pride in the business model. It's a business model that has been in place for as long as I've been in the company, which is now 16 years, I think. And business model flexibility investing to create kind of capability and capacity to respond to uncertainty in the industry holistically is kind of what our focus is. And the 3 elements of that you really got to kind of deal with in terms of variability or kind of factory supply chain and service. And what you do in parallel is make sure you never compromise your investment in fundamental research and never compromise your investment in concept and feasibility and product pipeline because that must kind of exist under any conditions if you're going to take seriously owning kind of long-term success for your company.

坦白說，我首先感謝您的認可，其次是您關於效率的表態。在幾年時間內以我們目前的速度擴大公司規模，這真的很難。坦白說，我會再次與員工、供應商和客戶溝通，建立夥伴關係才能讓這一切成為可能。我們對我們的商業模式感到自豪。這種商業模式在我加入公司以來一直沿用至今，我想，到現在已經有 16 年了。我們關注的重點在於透過投資來增強商業模式的靈活性，從而創造應對產業整體不確定性的能力和規模。而這三個要素，你真的需要從變動性或工廠供應鏈和服務的角度來處理。同時，你也要確保永遠不要在基礎研究和概念、可行性以及產品研發方面投入不足，因為如果你想認真對待公司的長期成功，這些投入在任何情況下都必須存在。

The follow-up is for Doug. Doug, you mentioned that you'll be working through the ASR. What are the priorities for cash and cash return beyond share repurchase under the existing program?

後續問題給道格。道格，你提到你會學 ASR。在現有計劃下，除了股票回購之外，現金和現金回報的優先事項是什麼？

Yes, so what I said maybe not very clearly is we're about 70% through the current buyback authorization. We authorized $1 billion and announced it at our Analyst Day back in November. And I'll remind you, at that point, we meaningfully grew the dividend as well. I mean, I would expect to give you a more definitive update when we get to that November Analyst Day. We're going to keep chugging along the current authorization and likely will be close to completion in the November time frame probably and at that point, I'd be ready to give you a more definitive here's what the next leg of this looks like. But it's likely going to be a continued commitment to a meaningful return of capital to shareholders, how and what -- in what amount, I'm going to save for November.

是的，我剛才可能沒說清楚，我們目前的回購授權已經完成了約 70%。我們已批准了10億美元的投資，並在去年11月的分析師日上宣布了這一消息。我還要提醒各位，當時我們也大幅提高了股利。我的意思是，我希望在11月的分析師日上能給你們一個更確切的最新消息。我們將繼續推進目前的授權工作，很可能在 11 月左右接近完成。到那時，我將準備好向你更明確地說明下一步的計劃。但很可能仍會繼續致力於為股東帶來有意義的資本回報，至於如何以及以何種方式、以何種金額回報股東，我打算在 11 月存下多少錢。

Our next question today comes from Atif Malik with Citi.

今天我們提出的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的阿提夫‧馬利克。

Martin, if I look at your guidance, you're probably around the $41 billion WFE run rate. A couple of your peers at SEMICON talked about the $40 billion to $45 billion as kind of the new baseline for wafer fab spending. And you guys are positive on next year. Would love to get your thoughts if $40 billion is kind of the new baseline for the next 3 years?

Martin，如果我看一下你的指導意見，你的年化收益率可能在 410 億美元左右。在 SEMICON 展會上，你們的幾位同行談到，400 億至 450 億美元將成為晶圓製造支出的新基準。你們對明年充滿信心。很想聽聽大家對未來三年400億美元的基準線有何看法？

Well, I think, as kind of as Doug said in the conference kind of mid-quarter, we don't kind of -- not aligned to the types of statements being made broadly in the industry. We don't have kind of rational deliver you a different message. So a number beginning with 4 is a reasonable kind of proxy. I think, at the end of the day, sustainability is defined by 2 things. It's defined by the legitimacy and sustainability of demand. And we see a world of tremendous innovation in software and applications, which is enabled by silicon. And something really special happened in the last several years, and the special was the world of connectivity and cloud and advanced computation kind of showed up at the same time. And so there's, I mean, a tremendous amount of excitement around that opportunity. And it's much more difficult for us to forecast because it's not one device now, it's many. And it's not a units conversation, it's a content conversation. But that's kind of the nature of the beast. So when we look at the most fundamental part of answering a question demand, we feel very good about it, very excited about that opportunity. The second part of this is all about kind of discipline and balance between supply and demand. And every indicator we have whether it's supply and demand, statements from a modeling point of view, whether it's ASPs, whether it's inventory levels, whether it's reuse strategies, whatever it is, I mean, the data points that we look to continue to suggest much more discipline than not. And so in the context of what I just described, with the assumption about stable units and assumption about kind of continued content expansion and assumption about the legitimacy of a China investment, we feel like there's sustainability to the types of spending levels that we're seeing right now. So our view is this is not an aberration. I'm sure it goes up and down along this journey and we've all got a lot to learn, but it feels quite fundamental from the seats that we have in the semiconductor ecosystem.

嗯，我認為，就像道格在季度中期的會議上說的那樣，我們並不——與業內普遍發表的聲明類型不一致。我們沒有理由向你傳達不同的訊息。因此，以 4 開頭的數字是合理的代理變數。我認為，歸根結底，永續性是由兩件事定義的。它由需求的合法性和可持續性決定。我們看到，在矽的推動下，軟體和應用程式領域湧現出巨大的創新。在過去的幾年裡，發生了一件非常特別的事情，那就是互聯互通、雲端運算和先進運算的世界幾乎同時出現。所以，我的意思是，大家對這個機會感到非常興奮。而且，由於現在不是單一設備，而是多種設備，因此我們更難進行預測。這不是關於銷量的討論，而是關於內容的討論。但這就是事物的本質。所以，當我們審視回答問題需求最基本的部分時，我們感到非常滿意，對這個機會感到非常興奮。第二部分主要關乎供需之間的某種紀律和平衡。我們所掌握的每一個指標，無論是供需關係、建模角度的陳述、平均售價、庫存水準、再利用策略，無論是什麼，我的意思是，我們所關注的數據點都持續表明，紀律性遠大於不紀律性。因此，在我剛才描述的背景下，假設單位穩定，假設內容持續擴展，以及假設中國投資的合法性，我們認為目前我們看到的這種消費水準是可持續的。因此，我們認為這不是異常現象。我相信這條路會一路起伏，我們都需要學習很多東西，但從我們身處半導體生態系統的角度來看，這感覺相當基礎。

Okay, very helpful. And as follow-up, in the past, you guys have provided a 3D NAND shift to wafer capacity. Can you tell us the number for exiting this year?

好的，很有幫助。作為後續，過去你們曾提供 3D NAND 晶圓產能轉移方案。能告訴我們今年的離職人數嗎？

I'm not going to tell you a precise number because I don't think it's that much different than what we said before. It's clearly a little higher. But the fundamental headline, which is the one that I really care about is the opportunity for sustainability of investment that comes from content and there's some great content messages. And by the end of this year, to the best of our knowledge, about half of the installed base will be 3D device capable in various forms so there's kind of 3 or 4 forms of 3D capacity. And there is a great technology roadmap with demand and so the opportunity is kind of a multiple-year opportunity.

我不會告訴你一個確切的數字，因為我覺得它和我們之前說的話並沒有太大差別。明顯要高一些。但最根本的重點，也是我真正關心的，是內容帶來的投資永續性機會，以及一些很棒的內容資訊。據我們所知，到今年年底，大約一半的已安裝設備將具備各種形式的 3D 功能，因此 3D 功能將有 3 到 4 種形式。而且，我們有非常好的技術路線圖，市場需求也很大，所以這是一個可以持續多年的機會。

Our next question comes from Amit Daryanani with RBC Capital Markets.

下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Amit Daryanani。

I have 2 questions, I guess. Maybe just talk about on the NAND side, understand the cyclical growth narrative that you guys have. I totally get that part. But I'm curious, as you think about the next few quarters with all the 3D NAND supply that's getting on board, do you see a pause that occurs there, especially in the early part of next year as some of this capacity gets digested? And if 2018 has more conversions less Greenfield, does that have any ramification for Lam?

我想問兩個問題。或許可以談談 NAND 快閃記憶體方面的狀況，了解你們的週期性成長模式。我完全明白這一點。但我很好奇，考慮到未來幾季大量 3D NAND 供應即將投入使用，您是否認為會出現供應停滯，尤其是在明年年初，隨著部分產能被消化？如果 2018 年的改造專案更多，新​​建專案更少，這對 Lam 有什麼影響嗎？

Well, on the last part of the question, the kind of greenfield versus conversion there is almost no implications for Lam. We articulated a reasonably agnostic view of that in our analyst meeting. Relative to pauses, I think, the industry now, collectively, the actions of our customers and the action of their supply chain is now sufficiently fast, the disconnects are kind of sometimes not even noticeable and they're much faster than they ever were. So are they going to be ebbs and flows of investments? Always. But I think much less wild swings than was true in our history. And I guess that's the kind of variability versus cyclicality conversations that we've had a number of times. So maybe there's pauses and accelerations. But the customers will do the right thing. They'll make investments when they have demands to support and as a supply chain, we're running cycle times a day that are fast enough that we're collectively responding pretty well to their needs.

至於問題的最後一部分，綠地開發與改建對 Lam 來說幾乎沒有任何影響。我們在分析師會議上闡述了對此相當客觀的看法。相對於停滯不前，我認為，現在整個行業，包括我們的客戶及其供應鏈的行動，速度已經足夠快，脫節有時甚至難以察覺，而且比以往任何時候都快得多。那麼，投資金額會像潮水一樣起伏波動嗎？總是。但我認為，與我們歷史上的情況相比，波動幅度要小得多。我想，這就是我們已經多次討論過的關於波動性與週期性的話題。所以，或許會有停頓和加速。但顧客會做出正確的選擇。當他們有需求需要滿足時，他們就會進行投資；作為供應鏈，我們每天的周期時間都足夠快，因此我們能夠很好地集體回應他們的需求。

Got it. And I guess, if I can just follow up, at the Analyst Day, I think you guys laid out a financial model that talked about, I don't know, 25%, 26% op margins, $10 to $11 EPS power in a 2019, 2020 time frame, right? So far in '17, so you seemed to be closer to a $12 EPS run rate. So should we think of Lam fundamentally doing high 20% operating margin and potentially higher if the WFE momentum sustains? If not, why should we think margins coming down towards the mid-20%?

知道了。我想，如果我可以繼續追問一下，在分析師日上，你們展示了一個財務模型，其中談到了，比如說，2019 年、2020 年期間 25%、26% 的營業利潤率，每股收益 10 到 11 美元，對嗎？截至 2017 年，你們的每股盈餘似乎更接近 12 美元。那麼，我們是否應該認為林氏的營業利潤率基本上保持在 20% 以上，如果 WFE 的成長動能持續，利潤率甚至可能更高？否則，我們為什麼會認為利潤率會下降到 20% 左右？

Yes, the first thing I'd tell you is you we'll give you a new model when we get to the November Analyst Day. We're going to think through kind of investment levels and what that looks like. If I were you trying to correlate those models to where we are today, I'd essentially run rate the previous model to the level of spend you think is occurring this year. And when I do that back-of-the-envelope math, there probably, I don't know, a half to maybe a full percentage point on an op income above where those models would suggest and whether we choose to spend a little bit more as we start looking at the numbers. I think we'll decide that as we go through it. But that's generally how I'd be thinking about it if I were you, Amit.

是的，我要告訴你們的第一件事是，我們將在 11 月的分析師日上向你們展示一個新的模型。我們將仔細考慮投資水準以及具體的投資方案。如果我是你，想要將這些模型與我們今天的情況聯繫起來，我基本上會根據你認為今年將發生的支出水平，並對先前的模型進行調整。當我粗略估算一下，營運收入可能比這些模型預測的要高出半個百分點到一個百分點，這取決於我們是否選擇多花一點錢，以及我們是否會開始研究這些數字。我想我們會邊做邊決定。但如果我是你，阿米特，我大概也會這麼想。

That concludes today's question-and-answer session. Mr. Martin Anstice, at this time I'd like to turn the conference back over to you for any additional or closing remarks.

今天的問答環節到此結束。馬丁·安斯蒂斯先生，現在我想把會議交還給您，請您作補充或總結發言。

Yes, thank you very much. So I just like to say a couple of things in closing of today's call. The first thing is to say thank you to those of you that were complementary about the performance of the company and kind of recognized the journey and the accomplishments because a lot of people work really hard to achieve that, which is my second comment. And I recognize I made this in prepared comments, but I'd like to do it again now. None of this would be possible without the commitment and support of all of our employees in every function, in every location around the world. And people are working extremely hard to scale the company in the way that we are. And I extend that thanks also to the supply chain community that makes this possible. And last but not least, to the really important stakeholder, the customer, because without the customer's partnership and support, we wouldn't be telling the story that we are. So in closing, a big thank you to a lot of people. It's a privilege to be part of this company and a privilege to have an opportunity to tell the story that we do. Thank you for your time, attention and interest in Lam Research.

是的，非常感謝。在今天的電話會議結束前，我想再說幾句話。首先，我要感謝那些對公司業績給予讚揚，並認可公司發展歷程和成就的人們，因為很多人為了實現這些目標付出了巨大的努力，這也是我的第二點要說的。我知道我之前是在事先準備好的評論中說過這些話，但我現在想再說一次。如果沒有我們世界各地各職能部門所有員工的奉獻和支持，這一切都不可能實現。人們正在非常努力地工作，以我們目前的方式擴大公司規模。我還要向供應鏈社群表示感謝，是他們讓這一切成為可能。最後，也是非常重要的一點，我要感謝我們的利害關係人——客戶，因為如果沒有客戶的合作與支持，我們就無法講述我們正在講述的故事。最後，我要衷心感謝很多人。能夠成為這家公司的一份子是我的榮幸，能夠有機會講述我們所講述的故事也是我的榮幸。感謝您抽空關注 Lam Research。

That concludes today's conference. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。