科林研發 (LRCX) 2018 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Lam Research June 2018 Quarter Earnings Call. At this time, I'd like to turn the call over to Odette Go, Treasurer for Lam Research. Please go ahead, ma'am.

大家好，歡迎參加 Lam Research 2018 年 6 月季度財報電話會議。此時，我想把電話交給 Lam Research 的財務主管 Odette Go。請便，女士。

Thank you. Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to the Lam Research Quarterly Earnings Conference Call. With me today are Martin Anstice, Chief Executive Officer; and Doug Bettinger, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝。謝謝大家，大家下午好。歡迎參加 Lam Research 季度財報電話會議。今天陪同我的是執行長馬丁·安斯蒂斯，以及執行副總裁兼財務長道格·貝廷格。

During today's call, we will share our outlook on the business environment, review our financial results for the June 2018 quarter and our outlook for the September 2018 quarter. The press release detailing our financial results was distributed a little after 1:00 p.m. Pacific Time this afternoon. It can be also found on the Investor Relations section of the company's website, along with the presentation slides that accompany today's call.

在今天的電話會議上，我們將分享我們對商業環境的展望，回顧我們 2018 年 6 月季度的財務業績以及我們對 2018 年 9 月季度的展望。詳細介紹我們財務表現的新聞稿已於下午 1 點剛過發布。太平洋時間今天下午。也可以在公司網站的投資者關係部分找到，以及今天電話會議的簡報。

Today's presentation and Q&A includes forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties reflected in the risk factors disclosures of our SEC public filings. Please see accompanying slides in the presentation for additional information.

今天的演示和問答環節包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到風險和不確定性的影響，這些風險和不確定性已反映在我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的公開文件中的風險因素披露部分。更多資訊請參閱簡報中的配套幻燈片。

Today's discussion of our financial results will be presented on a non-GAAP financial basis unless otherwise specified. A detailed reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP results can be found in today's earnings press release.

除非另有說明，我們今天對財務表現的討論將以非GAAP財務報表為基礎。今天的盈利新聞稿中提供了 GAAP 和非 GAAP 結果之間的詳細調整表。

This call is scheduled to last until 3:00 p.m. Pacific Time. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, the replay of this call will be available later this afternoon on our website.

本次通話預計持續到下午3點。太平洋時間。（操作員指示）提醒各位，本次通話的錄音將於今天下午晚些時候在我們的網站上提供。

With that, let me hand the call over to Martin.

那麼，我把電話交給馬丁吧。

Good afternoon. I firmly established that Lam is the priority of contributing to the success of our customers through the increased strategic relevance of our product and services portfolio. Ultimately, this focus is measured by our financial performance, and the June quarter financial results were outstanding. Worthy of note, we achieved the milestone of revenues exceeding $3 billion and non-GAAP operating income of approximately $1 billion.

午安.我已明確，Lam 的首要任務是透過提高我們產品和服務組合的策略相關性，為客戶的成功做出貢獻。最終，這種專注體現在我們的財務表現上，而六月的季度財務表現非常出色。值得一提的是，我們實現了營收超過 30 億美元和非 GAAP 營業收入約 10 億美元的里程碑。

Short-term performance is not simply our goal, however. We have delivered, and we have aspire to continue to reward our stakeholders with multiyear industry outperformance measured by competing for and winning a greater proportion of our customers' investments, greater in quantity and greater in quality through the degree of codependency and annuity. In this context, we also concluded the strongest fiscal year in our history by delivering approximately $11 billion in revenues, representing growth of almost 40%, $3.4 billion in non-GAAP operating income and $2.7 billion in cash from operations.

然而，短期業績並非我們唯一的目標。我們已經實現了目標，我們渴望繼續透過多年超越行業的業績來回報我們的利益相關者，透過競爭並贏得更大比例的客戶投資，在數量和質量上都取得更大的成就，這體現在相互依存和持續經營的程度上。在此背景下，我們也完成了公司歷史上最強勁的財政年度，實現了約 110 億美元的收入，年增近 40%，非 GAAP 營業收入為 34 億美元，經營活動產生的現金流為 27 億美元。

At this point of our journey, I would like to thank our customers, our employees, and our partners, for their active supports and confidence in the company. Our intense focus on technology and productivity leadership, operational execution and a genuine model of collaboration, we believe, are together the essential foundations for an exciting long-term future.

在此，我要感謝我們的客戶、員工和合作夥伴，感謝他們對公司的積極支持和信任。我們相信，對技術和生產力領先地位、營運執行以及真正協作模式的重視，是實現令人振奮的長期未來的必要基礎。

Well published at this point, customer equipment investment spending has softened near term, as industry participants continue to strive for discipline and sustainability in their businesses. While it is true to say that the short-term headlines reflect themselves in lower calendar Q3 guidance than we were anticipating earlier, we consider the change a strong positive long-term influence. We offer the following perspectives. While not true for every customer, the segments of memory and foundry have both seen, although for different reasons, some reduction in equipment's demand short term, but the largest single adjustments occurred in DRAM. We now plan overall 2018 WFE, up year-over-year in the single digits range. We expect the September quarter to be the low point of our calendar year. We remain optimistic about our mid-term and long-term opportunity, and continue to target Lam's outperformance this year and long term.

目前已充分證明，客戶設備投資支出在短期內有所放緩，因為產業參與者繼續努力在業務中保持自律和永續發展。雖然短期新聞頭條確實反映在第三季業績預期低於我們先前的預期，但我們認為這項變革對長期業績有著強烈的正面影響。我們提供以下觀點。雖然並非所有客戶都面臨這種情況，但記憶體和代工領域都出現了短期內設備需求下降的情況，儘管原因各不相同，但最大的單一調整發生在 DRAM 領域。我們現在計劃 2018 年整體 WFE 比上一年增長個位數。我們預計九月份的季度將是全年業績的低谷。我們對中長期發展機會仍保持樂觀，並將繼續以林氏今年及長期的優異表現為目標。

With the comprehensiveness of our disclosure earlier this year in our investor and analyst meeting, combined with the abundance of disclosure from other industry participants on the increasing role of silicon, the increasing role of data, and the acceleration of innovation in the cognitive computing environment, there's not so much more to add currently. Bottom line, our customers have inspirational ambition, and we exist to support them. Arguably, there's not been a more exciting time in our industry in decades, and the intensity of focus at Lam to mitigate risks and maximize strategic opportunities, combined, we believe, to create a compelling editorial.

鑑於我們今年稍早在投資者和分析師會議上的全面披露，以及其他行業參與者對矽的作用日益增強、數據的作用日益增強以及認知計算環境創新加速的大量披露，目前沒有太多需要補充的內容。總之，我們的客戶擁有鼓舞人心的抱負，而我們存在的意義就是支持他們。可以說，幾十年來，我們這個產業從未經歷過如此令人興奮的時期。 Lam 高度重視降低風險和最大限度地利用策略機遇，我們相信，這些因素結合起來，造就了一篇引人入勝的社論。

While it is true to say that our customers have never invested more absolute dollars in their future, with the recent device ASP trends, they are investing a lower proportion of their annual profits and in any points of the last 15 years. That is, the new industry and new value proposition headline that we have cited on several occasions now.

雖然可以說我們的客戶從未像現在這樣為他們的未來投入如此多的資金，但根據最近的設備平均售價趨勢，他們投入的年度利潤比例比過去 15 年中的任何時候都要低。也就是說，我們已經多次提到這個新的產業和新的價值主張。

We noted last quarter that we expected low double-digit WFE growth in 2018 and a first half, second half shipments allocations in the low 50s, high 40s, with revenues a little more balanced. We now expect single-digit WFE growth, with the adjustments reflecting themselves primarily in the September quarter. Having previously anticipated a first half, second half reduction in memory WFE of between 20% and 25%, we now expect a larger reduction with the long-term demands trends intact.

我們在上個季度指出，我們預計 2018 年 WFE 將達到兩位數的低成長，上半年和下半年的出貨量分配分別為 40 至 50 台，營收將更加平衡。我們現在預計 WFE 將實現個位數成長，調整主要體現在 9 月的季度中。我們之前預計上半年和下半年記憶體 WFE 將減少 20% 至 25%，現在我們預計在長期需求趨勢保持不變的情況下，降幅會更大。

To fully understand our September business volume trajectory, the following headlines that underpin our belief in the extraordinary value proposition of memory strength long term are important. We have the confidence in the long-term value and opportunity because memory and storage is increasingly prominent in the computer and systems integration road maps of the industry, with fundamental and broadening demand drivers. Analytically, that reflects itself in the trailing 7-year cumulative growth rate for memory WFE, which is approximately 10x greater than the equivalent logic foundry CAGR. Similarly, since 2013, memory WFE, as a percentage of total WFE, has trended from 40% to 60%, with the corresponding action deposition memory markets growing faster and to a higher level. This is our SAM expansion commentary. Considering these data points and the approximate 25% contribution from our installed base business, our September quarter guidance should be quite intuitive.

為了充分了解我們九月份的業務量走勢，以下幾個標題非常重要，它們支撐了我們對長期記憶力非凡價值主張的信念。我們對長期價值和機會充滿信心，因為記憶體和儲存技術在電腦和系統整合產業的路線圖中越來越重要，並且具有根本性和不斷擴大的需求驅動因素。從分析上看，這體現在記憶體 WFE 過去 7 年的累積成長率上，該成長率大約是同等邏輯代工廠 CAGR 的 10 倍。同樣，自 2013 年以來，內存 WFE 佔總 WFE 的百分比已從 40% 增至 60%，相應的動作沉積內存市場增長更快，水平更高。這是我們對SAM擴充的評論。考慮到這些數據點以及我們現有業務約 25% 的貢獻，我們對 9 月季度的預測應該相當直觀。

Turning to some of the business headlines of the company this quarter. There should now be a greater awareness to the earnings quality delivered from our installed base business. The so-called annuity of Lam, and that is where I would like to concentrate my prepared remarks here today. You will remember our objective to create value for customers through productivity solutions and the development of advanced services to facilitate improved value capture for Lam and growth at a pace faster than the growth of our installed base units.

接下來我們來看看公司本季的一些業務新聞。現在應該更加重視我們現有客戶群業務帶來的收益品質。所謂林氏年金，也是我今天想重點談談的內容。您一定記得，我們​​的目標是透過生產力解決方案和開發先進服務為客戶創造價值，從而促進 Lam 提高價值獲取，並以比我們已安裝基礎單元增長更快的速度實現增長。

Our installed base business has grown more than 2 times faster than our installed base unit growth this year, with our worldwide process chamber counts now approximately 55,000 units. In a world where our customers' focus appropriately seeks optimal asset utilization, our reliance in reuse business recorded first half 2018 growth of approximately 50% year-over-year. This is a commentary on the broadening of our product offerings and the demand for more than more IoT and MEMS silicon capacity.

今年，我們的安裝基礎業務成長速度比安裝基礎單元成長速度快 2 倍以上，目前全球工藝腔室數量約為 55,000 台。在當今世界，我們的客戶越來越注重資產的最佳利用，而我們對再利用業務的依賴在 2018 年上半年實現了約 50% 的同比增長。這是對我們產品供應範圍擴大以及對物聯網和MEMS矽產能日益增長的需求的評論。

As a reminder, our SAM expansion focus has 3 foundations today: first, fully realizing the opportunities of multi-patterning and 3D device scaling over multiple years; second, broadening our systems applications and films' capabilities, where there is opportunity and unmet customer need; and third, increasing value creation from advanced productivity services. On this last point, the portfolio is now quite comprehensive and harnesses the technologies of big data that we help to create customer engagements are now extensive, ranging from demo and evaluation to fab-wide adoption. We're pleased with our progress and excited by the opportunity to increase customer value to codependency, at the same time, increasing the quality of Lam Research earnings.

提醒大家，我們目前的 SAM 擴展重點有 3 個基礎：第一，在未來幾年內充分發揮多重圖案化和 3D 裝置尺寸縮小的機會；第二，在存在機會和尚未滿足的客戶需求的地方，拓寬我們的系統應用和薄膜功能；第三，提高先進生產力服務的價值創造。關於最後一點，目前產品組合相當全面，並利用了我們幫助創建的大數據技術，客戶互動範圍也十分廣泛，從演示和評估到全廠採用。我們對所取得的進展感到滿意，並對有機會提高客戶對共生關係的價值感到興奮，同時提高 Lam Research 的收益品質。

For the systems businesses of etch and deposition, our investments in SAM expansion, market share defense and penetration and disruptive technologies continues at pace, and we're pleased with the comprehensive and the complements of our technology and product road maps to the expectations of customers and the competitive dynamic.

對於蝕刻和沈積系統業務，我們在 SAM 擴展、市場份額防禦和滲透以及顛覆性技術方面的投資仍在快速推進，我們對技術和產品路線圖的全面性和互補性感到滿意，以滿足客戶的期望和競爭動態。

In closing, this is a year characterized by the following: first, the increased prominence of silicon and, in turn, the equipment industry in the creation of value for the global economy; two, rational, disciplined spending by our customers at the highest level in history, supported by the highest revenues and profits in their industry; three, unmatched outperformance opportunity, we believe, for Lam.

最後，今年具有以下特點：第一，矽技術及其相關設備產業在全球經濟價值創造中日益突出；第二，我們的客戶理性、自律的支出達到了歷史最高水平，這得益於他們所在行業最高的收入和利潤；第三，我們認為，Lam公司獲得了無與倫比的超額收益機會。

To emphasize a few key points. September P&L guidance for Lam is impacted by 4 things: first, the relative strength of memory and the strength of Lam in memory; second, the actions by some customers in recent weeks to adjust their short-term investment plans; and third, the implementation of new revenue recognition rules and the specifics of customer delivery and acceptance dates, leading up to the new accounting policy adoption; and fourth, the variability of our operating expense cost structure, without compromising our long-term focus.

強調幾個關鍵點。Lam 九月的損益預期受以下四件事影響：第一，內存業務的相對強弱以及 Lam 在內存業務中的實力；第二，最近幾週一些客戶調整其短期投資計劃的舉措；第三，新收入確認規則的實施以及客戶交付和驗收日期的具體情況，這些都與新會計政策的採用密切相關；第四，我們運營費用結構的重點，但我們長期發展成本結構的重點。

Current knowledge indicates September will be the low point of our year, and more importantly, the long-term trends of our industry and company, we believe, are as compelling as ever. On this last point, we look forward to sharing more of that to long-term opportunities at the August 7 Flash Memory Summit conference, where Rick Gottscho, our CTO, Doug, and myself, will be hosting a reception.

目前的情況表明，9 月將是今年的低谷，更重要的是，我們相信，我們行業和公司的長期發展趨勢仍然強勁。關於最後一點，我們期待在 8 月 7 日的閃存峰會上分享更多關於長期機會的信息，屆時我們的首席技術官 Rick Gottscho、Doug 和我本人將主持一場招待會。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Doug.

接下來，我會把電話交給道格。

Great. Thank you, Martin. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today, on what I know, is a very busy earnings day.

偉大的。謝謝你，馬丁。各位下午好，感謝大家今天參加我們的節目，我知道今天是一個非常繁忙的財報發布日。

The June quarter results represented a solid conclusion to the 2018 fiscal year. For the quarter, we exceeded the midpoint of our guidance for all financial metrics. For the fiscal year, we delivered record levels of shipments, revenues, cash from operations, gross margin dollars, operating income dollars as well as earnings per share. We're obviously very pleased with what we achieved this quarter and this fiscal year.

6 月的季度業績為 2018 財年畫上了圓滿的句號。本季度，我們所有財務指標均超過了預期中位數。在本財政年度，我們的出貨量、收入、經營活動現金流、毛利、營業收入、每股盈餘均創歷史新高。我們對本季和本財年所取得的成績顯然非常滿意。

Shipments for the quarter were, again, at the $3 billion mark, at $3,028,000,000, which was slightly above the midpoint of our guidance. For fiscal year 2018, shipments were $11,176,000,000, which was a 30% increase compared to fiscal year 2017.

本季出貨量再次達到 30 億美元，為 30.28 億美元，略高於我們預期的中位數。2018 財年，出貨額為 111.76 億美元，比 2017 財年成長了 30%。

Memory shipments continue to be strong in June, with the combined memory segment making up 80% of total system shipments. Our overall nonvolatile memory shipments remained strong, representing approximately 55% of the systems shipments compared to 57% last quarter.

6 月記憶體出貨量持續保持強勁勢頭，記憶體部分佔系統總出貨量的 80%。我們整體非揮發性記憶體出貨量依然強勁，約佔系統出貨量的 55%，而上一季為 57%。

DRAM shipments represented 25% of system shipments, down from 27% in the prior quarter. The foundry segment was up, accounting for 13% of system shipments, relative to 10% in March. And finally, the logic and other segment contributed 7% of system shipments, just a little bit above the prior quarters 6%.

DRAM 出貨量佔系統出貨量的 25%，低於上一季的 27%。晶圓代工業務有所成長，佔系統出貨量的 13%，而 3 月這一比例為 10%。最後，邏輯和其他部分佔系統出貨量的 7%，略高於前幾季的 6%。

We delivered record revenues of $3,126,000,000 in the June quarter, an increase of 8% from March, and again, slightly above the midpoint of guidance. For the fiscal year, revenues came in at $11,077,000,000, which was an increase of 38% from fiscal year 2017. Our installed base business contributed approximately 25% of our revenues in the fiscal year.

我們在 6 月季度實現了創紀錄的 31.26 億美元收入，比 3 月成長了 8%，再次略高於預期中位數。本財年營收為 110.77 億美元，比 2017 財年成長了 38%。本財年，我們的已安裝業務貢獻了約 25% 的收入。

Gross margin for the June quarter came in at 48%, which was up 120 basis points, sequentially, and the highest level in over a decade. As we shared before, our actual gross margins are a function of several factors, such as business volumes, product mix and customer concentration. And you should expect to see variability quarter-to-quarter.

6 月季度的毛利率為 48%，季增 120 個基點，為十多年來的最高水準。正如我們之前分享的，我們的實際毛利率取決於多種因素，例如業務量、產品組合和客戶集中度。而且，季度之間也會出現波動。

Operating expenses in the quarter grew to $507 million, but decreased 60 basis points on a sequential basis to 16.2% of revenues.

本季營運支出成長至 5.07 億美元，但季減 60 個基點至營收的 16.2%。

On a dollar basis, R&D spending grew, while SG&A spending slightly declined as compared with the March quarter. R&D comprised nearly 65% of our total spending. We continue to believe that disciplined R&D investments will increase our likelihood of achieving our future revenue growth objectives.

以美元計算，研發支出成長，而銷售、管理及行政支出與三月季度相比略有下降。研發支出占我們總支出的近 65%。我們仍然相信，有紀律的研發投入將提高我們實現未來收入成長目標的可能性。

Operating income in the June quarter came in at a record level of $994 million, up about 15% from the prior quarter. Operating margin came in close to the high end of the guidance at 31.8%, primarily due to the stronger gross margin performance.

6 月季度的營業收入達到創紀錄的 9.94 億美元，比上一季成長約 15%。營業利益率接近預期上限，達到 31.8%，主要得益於毛利率的強勁表現。

Then I get tax rate for the June quarter was 6.7%, in line with the guidance we provided at the beginning of the quarter. We expect the tax rate in the low to middle teens for the remainder of calendar year 2018. That trade in the middle teens remains the right level to include in your modeling. And there will be fluctuations around this quarter-to-quarter.

然後我得知，6 月季度的稅率為 6.7%，與我們在本季初提供的指導意見一致。我們預計 2018 年剩餘時間的稅率將維持在十幾到二十幾的水平。十幾歲中期的那個交易階段仍然是你建模的合適階段。而且每季之間都會有波動。

Based on a share count of approximately 175 million shares, earnings per share for the June quarter came in at $5.31, above the high end of our guided range. Primary drivers of the upside versus our guidance, was the improved profitability and a little bit lower share count. The share count includes dilution from the 2018 warrants and 2041 convertible notes, with the total dilutive impact being about 13 million shares on a non-GAAP basis.

根據約 1.75 億股的股數計算，6 月季度的每股盈餘為 5.31 美元，高於我們預期範圍的上限。業績超出預期的主要原因是獲利能力提高和流通股數量略有下降。股份數量包括 2018 年認股權證和 2041 年可轉換票據的稀釋，以非 GAAP 準則計算，總稀釋影響約為 1,300 萬股。

In the June quarter, our 2018 convertible note, which had the remaining balance of $172 million matured and was settled in cash and stock. The dilution schedules for the remaining 2041 convertible notes is available at our investor relations website for your reference.

在六月的季度中，我們 2018 年可轉換票據的剩餘餘額 1.72 億美元到期，並以現金和股票結算。剩餘 2041 年可轉換債券的稀釋計畫表已發佈在我們的投資者關係網站上，供您參考。

For the June quarter, we had $6 million in early conversions for the 2041 notes. The remaining balance of the 2041 notes is $327 million, and I do expect we will continue to see requests for early redemptions.

6 月季度，我們有 600 萬美元的 2041 年到期票據提前轉換。2041 年到期債券的剩餘餘額為 3.27 億美元，我預計我們將繼續看到提前贖回的請求。

In the June quarter, we spent $1.3 billion on share repurchases. With that, we have completed almost 60% of the current $4 billion authorization, and we repurchased approximately 12 million shares. We're planning to complete the remainder of the authorization over the next 9 months in tandem with the expected timing of our cash repatriation.

在六月的季度中，我們花了 13 億美元用於股票回購。至此，我們已完成目前 40 億美元授權金額的近 60%，並回購了約 1,200 萬股股票。我們計劃在接下來的 9 個月內完成剩餘的授權工作，這與我們的現金匯回的預期時間相吻合。

During the quarter, we be paid roughly $80 million in dividends, and we also declared a quarterly dividend of $1.10 per share that will be paid in the September quarter.

本季度，我們將獲得約 8,000 萬美元的股息，同時我們也宣布了每股 1.10 美元的季度股息，將於 9 月支付。

Let me now turn to the balance sheet. Cash and short-term investments, including our restricted cash, decreased in the quarter to $5.2 billion compared with $6.7 billion at the end of the March quarter, largely due to our capital return activities as well as debt repayment. In addition to retiring the 2018 convert, we also paid down approximately $640 million of commercial paper. Approximately 80% of the total $5.2 billion cash balance was offshore at the end of the quarter.

現在讓我來看資產負債表。本季現金及短期投資（包括受限現金）減少至 52 億美元，而 3 月底季末為 67 億美元，主要是由於我們的資本回報活動以及債務償還。除了償還 2018 年轉換的債券外，我們還償還了約 6.4 億美元的商業票據。截至季末，52億美元現金餘額總額中約有80%位於海外。

Cash from operations for the June quarter was approximately $718 million, which was down slightly from over $1 billion in the March quarter. DSO decreased by 3 days to 63 days. Inventory turns came in at 3.5x compared to 3.7 in the prior quarter. And for the fiscal year, the company generated $2.7 billion in cash from operations.

6 月季度的營運活動現金流約為 7.18 億美元，略低於 3 月季度的 10 億美元以上。DSO 減少了 3 天，降至 63 天。庫存週轉率為 3.5 倍，而上一季為 3.7 倍。該財年，該公司透過營運活動產生了 27 億美元的現金流。

Company noncash expenses included approximately $47 million for equity comp, $40 million for amortization and $45 million for depreciation.

公司非現金支出包括約 4,700 萬美元的股權補償、4,000 萬美元的攤提和 4,500 萬美元的折舊。

Capital expenditures were $80 million, which was up from $49 million in the March quarter. And as a reminder, we expect CapEx in 2018 to be higher compared to 2017 to support manufacturing network expansion and growth in our strategic R&D programs. We exited the quarter with approximately 10,900 regular full-time employees.

資本支出為 8,000 萬美元，高於 3 月季度的 4,900 萬美元。再次提醒大家，為了支持製造網絡擴張和策略研發項目的成長，我們預期 2018 年的資本支出將高於 2017 年。本季末，我們約有 10,900 名正式全職員工。

And as we previously noted, we are adopting ASC 606, the new revenue recognition standard, effective in fiscal 2019, which, for Lam, begins in the September quarter. Under 606, we generally will record revenue at the time of shipment rather than at the time of customer acceptance.

正如我們先前所提到的，我們將採用 ASC 606，即新的收入確認準則，該準則將於 2019 財年生效，對於 Lam 而言，該準則將於 9 月季度開始生效。根據 606 條款，我們通常會在出貨時而不是客戶驗收時確認收入。

Under our prior accounting methodology for more than a decade, our results have shown revenue recognition lagging shipments. However, with this new accounting change -- a change in shipments will essentially be equivalent to the change in revenues. And adjustments in customer's spending activity will have a quicker impact on our revenues and profits, generally within the same quarter. Because revenues will become more closely correlated to shipments, shipments will cease to have value as a leading indicator. As a result, we've decided to discontinue reporting shipments. With the implementation of the new revenue recognition policy coinciding with some of our customers trimming their near-term investment plans, most notably in NAND, we will see the impact right away in our next quarter's results.

在過去十多年裡，我們一直沿用先前的會計方法，結果顯示收入確認落後於出貨量。然而，隨著會計準則的這項新變化，出貨量的變化基本上將等同於收入的變化。客戶消費行為的調整通常會在同一季度內對我們的收入和利潤產生更快的影響。由於收入將與出貨量更加密切相關，因此出貨量將不再具有作為領先指標的價值。因此，我們決定停止報告出貨情況。由於新的收入確認政策的實施恰逢我們的一些客戶削減了近期投資計劃，尤其是在 NAND 快閃記憶體方面，我們將在下一季的業績中立即看到其影響。

Looking ahead, I'd like to provide our non-GAAP guidance for the September quarter. We are expecting revenues of $2.3 billion, plus or minus $150 million. We're expecting a meaningful downtick in memory spending in the September quarter.

展望未來，我想提供我們9月季度的非GAAP業績指引。我們預計營收為 23 億美元，上下浮動 1.5 億美元。我們預計9月份季度記憶體支出將顯著下降。

Gross margin of 46%, plus or minus 1 percentage point; operating margins of 26%, plus or minus 1 percentage point; and finally, earnings per share of $3.20, plus or minus $0.20, based on a share count of approximately 163 million shares.

毛利率為 46%，上下浮動 1 個百分點；營業利潤率為 26%，上下浮動 1 個百分點；最後，每股收益為 3.20 美元，上下浮動 0.20 美元，基於約 1.63 億股的股份數量。

As we sit here today, we believe the September quarter marks a near-term trough for our business. Taking back on our messaging at our March Analyst Day, we remain very optimistic on our longer-term growth prospects. We continue to believe that we have competitively differentiated products and disciplined investments that will continue to drive Lam's outperformance into the future.

就目前來看，我們認為九月的季度標誌著我們業務近期的一個低谷。重申我們在三月分析師日上傳達的訊息，我們對公司的長期成長前景仍然非常樂觀。我們仍然相信，我們擁有具有競爭優勢的產品和嚴謹的投資策略，這將繼續推動林氏集團在未來取得優異績效。

That concludes my prepared remarks. Operator, Martin and I would now like to open up the call for questions.

我的發言稿到此結束。接線生馬丁和我現在想開始接受提問。

(Operator Instructions) And we will take our first question from C.J. Muse with Evercore ISI.

（操作說明）我們先來回答來自 Evercore ISI 的 C.J. Muse 提出的問題。

I guess, a 2-part question in one. Can you speak to how you're expecting the ramp of the recovery into December? And then, I guess, more importantly, given this extremely rational behavior by your memory customers, how does that, I guess, make you think about the health of this industry, overall, and also, the impact of your vision, for WFE into 2019, all things equal?

我想，這其實是一個包含兩個部分的問題。能否談談您預計12月份經濟復甦的加速進程？然後，我想，更重要的是，鑑於您的記憶體客戶表現出的這種極其理性的行為，您如何看待整個行業的健康狀況，以及在其他條件相同的情況下，您對 WFE 到 2019 年的願景會產生怎樣的影響？

Obviously, the first part of the question, C.J., we're not going to guide December specifically in this meeting. But as Doug and I both said in our prepared comments, we do expect September to be the low point, and we'll be on a positive trajectory in December. And we'll report, I guess, at that time, the magnitude of it. But we would not have commented, if we didn't think it was material. On the second point, I mean, it's a terrific commentary on the maturity of the industry. That's -- the corrections happened at the pace they do and -- I mean, this is a pretty amazing industry at this point. If you look at kind of memory companies, their revenues are up, I think they're going to be up maybe this year. After they were up 60% last year, which is a $100 billion DRAM business, probably this year. And the profitability levels of memory companies today are trending 40% to 50% operating income. So there's some really nice headlines in terms of discipline, and some really nice headlines in terms of profitability and sustainability. And their business is a different business today. And if you kind of -- if you went even higher than the memory statements and opines on the semiconductor industry, holistically, in the 5 years, 2014 to '18 inclusive, semiconductor revenues are up by about $125 billion, if you believe in a $450 billion or a $460 billion revenue for calendar '18. In that same time frame, there has been an increase in wafer fabrication equipment investments by probably $18 billion in the low to the high end of that period. That means the incremental capital intensity is at 15%. I mean that's an incredible level of efficiency of spending and a great commentary, I think, on sustainability, in light of -- probably the most exciting set of demand drivers and the most diverse set of demand drivers we've had in a decade.

顯然，C.J.，問題的第一部分，我們不會在本次會議上具體討論十二月的事情。但正如道格和我都在事先準備好的評論中所說，我們預計9月份將是低谷，12月份我們將走上積極的發展軌道。我想，到那時我們會報道這件事的嚴重程度。但如果我們認為此事無關緊要，我們就不會發表評論。關於第二點，我的意思是，這很好地體現了該行業的成熟度。沒錯——這些調整以這樣的速度發生——我的意思是，就目前而言，這是一個非常了不起的行業。如果你看看那些儲存設備公司，它們的收入都在成長，我認為它們今年的收入可能還會繼續成長。去年 DRAM 業務成長了 60%，而 DRAM 業務規模達 1,000 億美元，今年可能也會如此。而如今記憶體公司的獲利水準正朝著營業收入佔 40% 至 50% 的方向發展。所以，在紀律方面有一些非常好的新聞標題，在獲利能力和永續性方面也有一些非常好的新聞標題。如今，他們的業務已經改變了。如果你——如果你把目光放得比內存聲明和對半導體行業的整體看法還要高，那麼在2014年至2018年的五年間，半導體收入增長了約1250億美元，如果你相信2018年的收入為4500億美元或4600億美元的話。在同一時期，晶圓製造設備投資可能增加了 180 億美元（該時期的低點到高點）。這意味著增量資本密集度為 15%。我的意思是，這體現了令人難以置信的支出效率，而且我認為，考慮到我們十年來可能面臨的最令人興奮和最多樣化的需求驅動因素，這很好地詮釋了永續性問題。

And next, we'll go to Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

接下來，我們將連線瑞銀集團的提摩西·阿庫裡。

I had 2. I guess first thing, Doug. I wanted to ask what the guidance would have been, net of ASC 606?

我有2個。我想首先是道格。我想問的是，剔除 ASC 606 之後，指導方針會是什麼？

Yes. I'm not going to give you a specific number, Tim, but I will tell you at the end of every quarter in the 10-Q, you'll see for the next year old way and new way. I'm not going to get into guiding it because lots can change around it, and I'm going to just stick to the current accounting rules. But you will be able to see it at the end of every quarter, Tim.

是的。提姆，我不會給你一個具體的數字，但我會在每個季度末的 10-Q 報告中告訴你，在接下來的一年裡，你會看到舊方法和新方法。我不打算就此進行指導，因為情況可能會發生很多變化，我只會堅持現行的會計準則。但提姆，你每季末都能看到結果。

Okay, awesome. And then Martin, you made a comment, when you were talking about service, that it's up 50% year-over-year, was that just a particular piece of the service business? Or were you talking about service as a whole?

好的，太棒了。馬丁，你在談到服務業時提到，服務業年增了 50%，這僅僅是服務業的某個特定部分嗎？還是您指的是整個服務業？

I kind of attempted to deliver 2 messages on the installed base business. The first one is the growth of the entire installed base, such as spares and service and upgrades and training, and the reliance in reuse business, and that was the 2 times faster in the 6 months of this year than the pace of growth of the installed base units. The second reference, which is the 50% reference you just spoke to, related to our reliance and reuse business. So I was focusing on one segment for reasons that hopefully are quite obvious.

我試圖就已安裝用戶群業務傳達兩個訊息。第一個面向是整個已安裝基礎的成長，例如備件、服務、升級和培訓，以及對再利用業務的依賴，而今年前 6 個月的成長速度是已安裝基礎單元成長速度的 2 倍。第二個參考資料，也就是你剛才提到的 50% 的參考資料，與我們的依賴和再利用業務有關。因此，我專注於其中一個領域，原因應該很明顯。

And Tim, yes -- as I was just thinking about, maybe just a little more color on that rev rec thing, so we don't continue to get questions on it. I mean, guys, think about it in the right way. At the end of the day, this is all just timing, right? Shipments always turn into revenue, they never don't. That always happened. And so holistically, thinking about this change, it's meaningless at the end of the day. It's purely timing. It has no impact on cash flow. It has no impact on how we manage or think about the business. And in the long term, it really doesn't matter.

提姆，是的——我剛才就在想，也許應該對那個修訂記錄多加一些說明，這樣我們就不會再收到關於它的問題了。我的意思是，夥計們，好好想想。歸根結底，這一切都只是時機問題，對吧？出貨量總是會轉化為收入，這是必然的。這種情況總是會發生。因此，從整體來看，這種變化最終毫無意義。純粹是時機問題。對現金流沒有影響。這不會影響我們如何管理或思考業務。從長遠來看，這真的無關緊要。

And I guess, Doug, just to that point, so the shipments, basically, would have been about 2.3. That's kind of how to think of it, right?

我想，道格，就到此為止，所以基本上，出貨量大約是 2.3。可以這麼想，對吧？

What I said was, revenue and shipments are going to be much more closely correlated, and we're going to stop guiding shipments, as a result, because it's not as useful as a leading indicator as it used to be. So we're not going to be talking about shipments anymore, Tim.

我說過，收入和出貨量之間的相關性將會更加密切，因此我們將停止對出貨量進行預測，因為它作為領先指標的作用不如以前那麼大了。所以我們以後不再討論出貨問題了，提姆。

And next, we'll go to Harlan Sur of JPMorgan.

接下來，我們將連線摩根大通的哈蘭‧蘇爾。

I'm just wondering if you could comment on the breadth of the spending base as you look into the second half. Memory companies are driving 60% gross margin and 50% operating margin profitability, so very strong logic and foundry, guys, also strong profitability levels. So I guess, profitability is a proxy for the health of the fundamental environment. So there's really no red flags which would cause your customer base to downshift on your tech migration and capacity plans. So it seems like what you're seeing in the September quarter is more of a -- project shifts seems to be more maybe customer specific, and maybe limited to 1 or 2 and customers. Is that kind of the right way to think about it?

我想請您談談下半年消費基礎的廣度。記憶體公司的毛利率高達 60%，營業利潤率高達 50%，因此邏輯電路和晶圓代工業務實力雄厚，獲利能力也很強。所以我覺得，獲利能力可以作為衡量基本環境健康狀況的指標。因此，目前並沒有任何危險訊號會導致您的客戶群降低對您的技術遷移和容量計畫的接受度。所以，您在九月季度看到的似乎是——專案調整似乎更多是針對特定客戶的，而且可能僅限於 1 或 2 個客戶。這樣想對嗎？

It's definitely not all customers. I mean, there are some pretty kind of selective adjustments. It's a combination of a push from September to December, and a combination of some movement from the second half of this year to the first half of next year. But I mean, everything embedded in your question, Harlan, I think, we would endorse. I mean, there is a fundamental commentary of health, measured by profitability and growth of the semiconductor industry, as it has completely redefined its kind of purpose and value proposition in this broader kind of data economy and ecosystem. And the long-term drivers are quite compelling. So individual companies make individual corrections, that will always be the case and you've seen some come together in ways when you haven't seen that in the past. So it's a good thing, pretty short term, we expect September to be our low point.

這絕對不是所有顧客。我的意思是，這其中存在一些相當選擇性的調整。這是從 9 月到 12 月的推動力，以及從今年下半年到明年上半年的一些變化共同作用的結果。但我的意思是，哈蘭，你問題中包含的所有內容，我認為我們都會同意。我的意思是，半導體產業的獲利能力和成長情況，從根本上反映了其健康狀況，因為它在更廣泛的數據經濟和生態系統中徹底重新定義了自身的目標和價值主張。而長期驅動因素也相當令人信服。所以各個公司都會進行各自的調整，這種情況總是存在的，而且你也看到一些公司以過去從未出現過的方式走到了一起。所以從短期來看，這是好事，我們預期9月份會是低潮。

And our next question comes from Krish Shankar with Cowen.

下一個問題來自 Cowen 公司的 Krish Shankar。

I had 2 of them. First one was on -- thanks for the clarity on the December guidance, or I should say September being the downtick. Is there a way to quantify what is driving the recovery in December? Is it DRAM, NAND or is it both of them?

我有兩個。第一個問題解決了——感謝您對 12 月指導意見的澄清，或者我應該說 9 月是下降期。有沒有辦法量化12月推動經濟復甦的因素？是DRAM、NAND還是兩者都有？

Well, I mean, the interesting thing about the world we live in now, the value proposition that's available in the world of technology requires connectivity, it requires cloud, memory and storage, and it requires computes. So there's always going to be some kind of ebbs and flows between one segment and another. But the value proposition requires investments in all. And I think, that's the fundamental headline that people should internalize. And what we try to do is supplement that headline with a commentary on the importance of memory in that ecosystem, and the role that memory plays, as an embedded component of systems and even eventually, in the world of computes. And I gave some statistics today, that I'm not sure fully internalized, but the CAGR of memory investment compared to the CAGR of logic and foundry investment, has no comparison, almost, in the last 5 to 7 years. And that's the strength of our company in many respects. And so that's why we speak to unmatched opportunity because we think it's a very balanced investments, and the strength of our company from a product portfolio point of view and our segment exposure creates something that's unmatched.

嗯，我的意思是，我們現在所生活的世界有趣的地方在於，科技世界所提供的價值主張需要連接性、雲端、記憶體和存儲，以及運算能力。所以各部分之間總是會存在某種程度的起伏變化。但要實現這一價值主張，就需要對所有方面進行投資。我認為，這是人們應該牢記的基本要點。我們試圖透過評論來補充這個標題，說明內存在該生態系統中的重要性，以及記憶體作為系統嵌入式元件，甚至最終在計算領域所扮演的角色。今天我給了一些統計數據，我不確定大家是否完全理解，但在過去 5 到 7 年裡，記憶體投資的複合年增長率與邏輯和代工投資的複合年增長率相比，幾乎沒有可比性。從很多方面來說，這正是我們公司的優勢。所以，這就是為什麼我們說這是無與倫比的機會，因為我們認為這是一項非常均衡的投資，而且從產品組合和細分市場來看，我們公司的實力創造了無與倫比的機會。

Got you. Got you. That's very helpful. And if I could just have a follow-up for Doug. On the September quarter, is there a way you can give some color on the segment mix between DRAM, NAND and foundry? And also, historically, your services has been roughly, say, 25% of revenues. How much do you think it's going to be, as a percentage of total revenues, in the September quarter?

抓到你了。抓到你了。那很有幫助。我能否再給道格提個後續問題？關於九月的季度業績，您能否詳細介紹DRAM、NAND和晶圓代工這三個業務板塊的組成？而且，從歷史數據來看，你們的服務收入約佔總收入的 25%。你認為在九月的季度中，這部分收入佔總收入的百分比會是多少？

Yes, Krish, I'm not going to give you the exact percentage, except to say that when business ticks down a little bit, the installed base really doesn't. And so it's probably going to be a little bit higher in the September quarter, but I'm not going to quantify it for you. And then relative to the -- what's going on in September by segment, we don't typically get into the detail. We do the backward looking, but not necessarily forward looking. But what you heard, both Martin and I say, relative softness in memory, so you could assume there's probably some stuff going on there.

是的，克里什，我不會告訴你確切的百分比，但我只想說，當業務略有下滑時，用戶基數並不會真正下降。所以，9 月的季度可能會略高一些，但我不會為你量化這個數字。至於九月份各個細分市場的具體情況，我們通常不會深入探討。我們會回顧過去，但不一定會展望未來。但正如你聽到的，馬丁和我都認為，記憶力相對較弱，所以你可以推測那裡可能發生了一些事情。

And next, from Goldman Sachs, we'll hear from Toshiya Hari.

接下來，我們將聽聽來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari 的演講。

Martin, you talked about 2018 WFE being up in the kind of single-digit range. As a housekeeping question, what are your updated expectations, for DRAM, NAND and logic and foundry, respectively?

馬丁，你之前說過 2018 年 WFE 的成長幅度在個位數範圍內。作為例行工作，您對DRAM、NAND、邏輯電路和晶圓代工分別有何新的預期？

As a housekeeping response, we didn't disclose that before. And I'm not going to kind of increment the disclosure today. Obviously, I think, the common knowledge, at this point, the memory bias is first half, and the logic foundry is much closer to a flattish, right? So you've got that as a kind of broad reference on WFE, and that's where I would sit, responding to the question, specifically. So maybe I could kind of provide some quality to statements as well that are helpful, in response to the question. The adjustments we've seen from customers in DRAM, I would say, have avoided overinvestments. That's a nice, simple way to kind of characterize it. And we still believe from the analytics that we can perform -- it's still a tight marketplace. In NAND flash, the pace of the adjustments that we have seen have been moderating. They've been slowing. Hence, the commentary that we're giving today around September, and then the expansion of the company, again, in December.

作為內部管理方面的回應，我們之前沒有透露此事。我今天不會增加資訊揭露的內容。顯然，我認為，目前大家的普遍認知是，記憶偏差處於前半部分，而邏輯鑄造廠則更接近平坦狀態，對吧？所以，你可以把這當作 WFE 的一個大致參考，而我也會以此為出發點來具體回答這個問題。所以，或許我也可以針對這個問題提供一些有價值的、有幫助的答案。我認為，客戶在 DRAM 方面所做的調整避免了過度投資。這是一種簡潔明了的描述方式。根據分析，我們仍然相信我們能夠取得好成績——市場競爭依然激烈。在 NAND 快閃記憶體領域，我們看到的調整步伐已經放緩。他們的步伐已經放緩了。因此，我們今天對九月份的情況進行了評論，然後是公司在十二月份的擴張。

Great. And then as a follow-up, I just want to get an update on what you're seeing in China. Obviously, the political landscape is unstable, to say the least. I don't know if that really impacts what your customers do in China. But I'm just curious, your outlook on CapEx in China, both for the back half of this year and more importantly, longer term, if that's changeable.

偉大的。然後，作為後續問題，我想了解你在中國看到的最新情況。顯然，政治局勢極不穩定。我不知道這是否真的會影響你們在中國的客戶的行為。但我很好奇，您對中國資本支出前景的看法，包括今年下半年以及更重要的，更長遠的未來，如果情況會改變的話。

Yes. I think -- I don't have a crystal ball, obviously, the kind of opine on the political dynamic and how various elements of this conversations play out. But our assumption today around the execution of our plans is the same as it always has been. We see legitimacy in the ambition, and we see investments in capacity in China that are synchronized to the demand for units out of fabs, and I would make that statement on a global basis, and I would make it on in regards to China as well. Obviously, tariff-based conversations can and do impact the operations of companies like Lam, and so left unattended, tariffs create incremental cost structures for us. And we make the impact immaterial by modifying kind of our supply chain. We have to take actions to mitigate that risk. And there's no material exposure embedded in our forecast for tariffs. Relative to long term, China, if the environment of export control, it is what it is today. The plans of customers, we'll execute. If it changes, then we have to kind of revisit the assumptions at that point in time. We don't see evidence today of planned changes, so nothing to report. But I would say, we're attentive to the very same things that you are, and we can control only so much of this conversation. So -- and we'll be on the same boat as everybody else, if and when things change, I guess.

是的。我認為——顯然我沒有水晶球——我對政治動態以及這些對話的各個方面將如何發展發表意見。但我們今天對計劃執行的假設與以往一樣。我們看到了這項雄心壯志的合理性，也看到了中國產能投資與晶圓廠產品需求同步增長，我會在全球範圍內做出這樣的聲明，對於中國而言也是如此。顯然，基於關稅的對話能夠而且確實會影響像 Lam 這樣的公司的運營，因此，如果不加以重視，關稅會給我們帶來額外的成本結構。我們透過改變供應鏈的類型，使這種影響變得微不足道。我們必須採取措施降低這種風險。我們的關稅預測中沒有包含任何實質風險敞口。從長遠來看，如果中國繼續保持目前的出口管制環境，那麼它就是現在的樣子。我們會執行客戶的計畫。如果情況發生變化，那麼我們就需要重新審視當時的假設。今天我們沒有看到任何計劃變更的跡象，所以沒有什麼可報告的。但我想說，我們和你們一樣關注著同樣的事情，而我們能控制的對話也僅限於此。所以——我想，如果情況發生變化，我們都會和其他人一樣，處境相同。

Our next question will come from John Pitzer at Credit Suisse.

下一個問題將來自瑞士信貸的約翰·皮策。

Martin, if you kind of look at your growth over the last several years, there's been multiple components to it, but market share gain has been a meaningful driver of your growth profile. I'm just kind of curious, as you look towards the 9x layer NAND, and then 1y, 1x, 1z, and DRAM. How are you thinking about your share potential from here?

馬丁，如果你回顧一下你過去幾年的發展，你會發現它包含多個方面，但市場份額的成長是你發展的重要驅動力。我只是有點好奇，當你展望 9x 層 NAND，然後是 1y、1x、1z 和 DRAM 時，會是什麼樣的情況。您如何看待貴公司目前的股價走勢？

This is kind of a shorter-term message and a long-term message. The shorter one is we're in for busy second half because the decisions of the second half have a -- and, I think, are 3 times greater in their impact than the ones at the first half. So the second half is a busy period for the company. The objective of the company, I hope, is well understood. We are investing to increase our relevance to the success of the customers and gain market share in etch and deposition, in memory and in logic foundry. And we've put together multiple years' worth of momentum that we intend to build upon. We don't win everything, we don't defend everything, but we've demonstrated over multiple years that we win more than we don't, and that's the objective kind of going forward. The best reference still is the long-term models that we gave, the call out market share references. And the last thing I would say is when you think about the holistic growth opportunities of Lam, let's remember market share is $1 billion component of a $3 billion reference. So we're seeking $1 billion of SAM expansion, we're seeking $1 billion of growth from market share, and we're seeking $1 billion of growth in the space of the installed base business of the company. So it's kind of 1 element of 3, and all are very important and all are being invested in.

這既是一則短期訊息，也是一則長期訊息。簡而言之，下半場將會非常忙碌，因為下半場的決策具有——而且我認為——比上半場的決策影響要大三倍。因此，下半年是公司非常繁忙的時期。我希望大家能夠清楚地理解公司的目標。我們正在進行投資，以提高我們對客戶成功的貢獻，並在蝕刻和沈積、記憶體和邏輯代工領域獲得市場份額。我們已經累積了多年的發展勢頭，我們打算在此基礎上繼續發展。我們不可能贏得所有比賽，也不可能捍衛所有榮譽，但多年來我們已經證明，我們贏得的比賽比輸的比賽多，而這正是我們未來努力的目標。最好的參考仍然是我們給出的長期模型，以及市場份額參考數據。最後我想說的是，在考慮 Lam 的整體成長機會時，請記住，市佔率是 30 億美元參考值中 10 億美元的組成部分。因此，我們尋求透過 SAM 擴張獲得 10 億美元的收入，我們尋求透過市佔率成長獲得 10 億美元的收入，我們尋求透過公司現有客戶群業務成長獲得 10 億美元的收入。所以它是三個要素中的一個，這三個要素都非常重要，而且都在進行投資。

That's all for margin. And then as you think about kind of the recovery into the December quarter, obviously if your memory customers are more profitable of recovery, it becomes easier, and so there is clearly a price element embedded in the recovery. But I'm just kind of curious to what extent could it be somewhat ASP-independent on the memory side? It's just the timing of when these technology transitions your customers are working on begin to inflect again.

利潤率部分就到此為止。然後，當你考慮到 12 月季度的復甦情況時，顯然，如果你的記憶體客戶在復甦方面利潤更高，復甦就會變得更容易，因此復甦中顯然包含價格因素。但我很好奇，在記憶體方面，它在多大程度上可以與 ASP 無關？關鍵在於，您的客戶正在進行的這些技術轉型何時會再次開始產生影響。

Yes, I mean, I think the profitability levels and the revenue levels, it eliminates the limitations on investments, but I don't think profitability levels, on their own, drive investments. I think demand for chips and elasticity of demand from pricing and attachment rates drive demand for investments. So I think, profits have taken off the table the limitations, but certain points in our history have limited investments, so there's much more flexibility for our customers today than ever before. But I think our customers hold themselves accountable to investing capacity when they have chips to sell. And that's a great commentary on health of an industry.

是的，我的意思是，我認為獲利水準和收入水準可以消除投資的限制，但我認為獲利水準本身並不能驅動投資。我認為晶片的需求以及價格和附加率帶來的需求彈性會驅動投資需求。所以我認為，利潤已經消除了限制，但我們歷史上的某些時期限制了投資，因此，如今我們的客戶比以往任何時候都擁有更大的靈活性。但我認為，當我們的客戶有晶片要出售時，他們會對自己的投資產能負責。這很好地反映了一個行業的健康狀況。

And next, we have Atif Malik with Citi.

接下來，我們請到花旗銀行的 Atif Malik。

Martin, historically, when we have seen a weakness over your memory customers, they've all happened at the same time, or maybe one after another. I mean, what's different this time and you talk about not all customers are changing plans, and why should we believe others won't follow the leaders?

Martin，從歷史經驗來看，每當我們看到你的記憶體客戶出現疲軟時，它們要麼同時發生，要麼接連發生。我的意思是，這次有什麼不同？你說並非所有客戶都在改變計劃，我們憑什麼相信其他人不會效法領導者？

Well, I've tried to articulate, again, not just in memory, but broadly in the industry, how I think the industry is different today than it was through kind of 10 years ago. And one of the differences is that I see very significant customers in leadership positions with very clear segments and market focus that has some differences with very clear strategies and very clear opportunities, and risks and limitations on strategies. And our customers, and I'll use 3D NAND as a great example. There was a, I think, a 4-year separation between the first adapter on 3D NAND technology to the last of the 4. And that's illustrative of how their strategies are quite unique. And that's not a good or bad, it's just a statement of uniqueness, optimized in their minds to the opportunities in the marketplace to be successful growing the business. So I think customers, they are all attempting to pursue the right ambition, which is profitable market share, not just market share, and we have the same aspiration. But there is, for sure, a uniqueness of a device targeting in a marketplace, market segmentation. There's also uniqueness of clean room capacity, there's also uniqueness of investment coming online from a timing point of view. And there's uniqueness in terms of the installed base road maps of these companies. And so all of that means, I believe, that the power of the customer is greater than the power of the segment when it comes to analyzing the direction of the industry.

嗯，我再次嘗試闡明，不僅是憑記憶，而且在整個行業內，我認為如今的行業與大約 10 年前相比有何不同。其中一個差異是，我看到一些非常重要的客戶處於領導地位，他們擁有非常清晰的細分市場和市場重點，這與他們非常清晰的策略、非常清晰的機會以及策略上的風險和限制有所不同。還有我們的客戶，我以 3D NAND 為例。我認為，從第一個採用 3D NAND 技術的適配器到最後一個採用該技術的適配器，中間間隔了 4 年時間。這說明他們的策略非常獨特。這既不是好事也不是壞事，這只是他們追求獨特性的體現，在他們看來，這種獨特性是針對市場機會而優化的，旨在成功發展業務。所以我認為客戶們都在努力追求正確的目標，那就是獲利的市場份額，而不僅僅是市場份額，而我們也有同樣的願望。但可以肯定的是，針對特定市場進行市場區隔的設備具有獨特性。無塵室容量也有其獨特性，從時間角度來看，投資上線也有其獨特性。這些公司在已安裝基礎路線圖方面也存在獨特性。因此，我認為，所有這些都意味著，在分析產業發展方向時，顧客的力量大於細分市場的力量。

And Doug, fairly aggressive share repurchase here, 60% through. Is there any consideration of a new repurchase program?

道格，這裡的股票回購相當激進，已經完成了 60%。是否有考慮推出新的回購計畫？

At the end of the quarter, we're still only 60% on the way through. We need to get a little closer to the end before we can start thinking about what's next, Atif.

季度末，我們只完成了 60% 的工作。阿提夫，我們需要離終點更近一些才能開始考慮下一步該做什麼。

But the framework, again, is pretty simple for answering that question, right? I mean, the priority is investing the profitable growth of the company. And when we have cash that is in excess of that need, return it to our shareholders. And we've operated with our philosophy for probably, at least, a decade, may be more. And it's the guidance under any conditions going forward.

但是，這個框架對於回答這個問題來說非常簡單，對吧？我的意思是，首要任務是投資於公司的獲利成長。當我們的現金超過所需時，我們會將其返還給股東。我們秉持著這種理念已經運作了至少十年，甚至可能更久。而且，無論在何種情況下，這都是未來的指導原則。

Yes. We're obviously going to continue the program. We talked about that. I'll remind you the Analyst Day commentary, about 50% of cash, but still how we're thinking about the framework.

是的。我們顯然會繼續推進這個專案。我們談過這件事。我提醒分析師日的評論，大約 50% 的現金，但這仍然是我們對框架的思考方式。

And our next question will come from Sidney Ho with Deutsche Bank.

接下來，我們將向德意志銀行的 Sidney Ho 提問。

If you go back to June quarter, when did you start seeing the weakness in orders or shipments? I guess, it's more orders than shipments, since your shipment for the June quarter was above expectations. I'm just trying to reconcile the timing because your other competitors in the equipment space seems to be seeing that a little early than you did.

如果回顧六月的季度，你是什麼時候開始發現訂單或出貨量疲軟的？我猜想，訂單數量多於發貨數量，因為你們六月的發貨量超出了預期。我只是想弄清楚時機，因為你們在設備領域的其他競爭對手似乎比你們更早意識到了這一點。

I think you've got 2 problems with the question and the answer I could give you. The first problem is none of us have any idea of the assumptions in the original disclosure of the companies that you're talking about, and so any reference is kind of hard to interpret. I'm not going to get into specifics on dates, but the changes are fairly recent.

我認為你對這個問題以及我能給你的答案有兩個疑問。第一個問題是，我們都不知道你提到的這些公司在原始揭露文件中所做的假設是什麼，因此任何提及都很難解釋。我不打算透露具體日期，但這些變化是最近發生的。

Okay. Maybe a follow-up question is that. Related to ASC 606, I know you talked about the product side. But is there any impact on your service revenue as well -- and there are some multiyear service contracts, and like that?

好的。或許可以接著問這個問題。關於 ASC 606，我知道您談到了產品方面。但這對你們的服務收入也有影響嗎？我們有一些多年期的服務合約等等。

No. To a much lesser extent, service looks very similar, old rules, new rules.

不。在較小程度上，服務看起來非常相似，無論是舊規則還是新規則。

And next, we'll hear from Patrick Ho with Stifel, Nicolaus.

接下來，我們將聽聽 Stifel 和 Nicolaus 的 Patrick Ho 的演講。

Most of my questions have been answered, so just one question for you, Doug. In terms of the installed base business that continues to grow for you, guys, you've always talked about how it's very accretive to your operating margins. As that business grows, how do you balance the investments needed to continue to grow that business, and I guess, streamline those operations to have it continue to drop to the bottom line?

我的大部分問題都已得到解答，所以只剩下最後一個問題要問你，道格。各位，就你們不斷成長的現有客戶群業務而言，你們一直都說它對你們的營業利潤率有很大的提升作用。隨著業務的成長，如何平衡業務持續成長所需的投資，以及精簡營運以持續降低利潤？

Yes. I don't think I've ever said, Patrick, it's really accretive. It's maybe a little bit at the operating income line, but it's not wildly different. And some of the things we're doing to try to drive growth in that business are the advanced services you hear us talk about setting objectives around growing faster than the installed base, driving new programs to help solve some of the problems customers have inside of the fab, and unique ways that we know -- we know how to do, given our familiarity with our own equipment.

是的。派崔克，我想我從來沒有說過，這真的很有累積性。可能略微接近營業收入線，但差異不大。為了推動該業務的成長，我們正在採取一些措施，例如提供先進的服務，設定目標以比現有客戶群增長更快的速度增長，推動新項目以幫助解決客戶在晶圓廠內部遇到的一些問題，以及我們憑藉對自身設備的熟悉程度，以獨特的方式開展業務。

Yes. And from an investment point of view, I mean, I wouldn't characterize but we run the installed base part of the company any differently than we do the systems piece. I mean, we do our best to anticipate and identify opportunities and risks. We do our best to invest, timely and proactively, to be successful, and we do our best to make sure that when there are changes in business levels, the cost structure of the company in the short term is appropriately responsive without kind of compromising that long-term view. And so it's the same gig for every business unit and every elements of the portfolio of the company.

是的。從投資的角度來看，我的意思是，我不會妄下斷言，但我們營運公司已安裝基礎部分的方式與營運系統部分的方式並無不同。我的意思是，我們會盡最大努力預測和識別機會和風險。我們盡最大努力及時、積極地進行投資以取得成功，並且盡最大努力確保在業務水平發生變化時，公司短期內的成本結構能夠做出適當的反應，而不會損害長期前景。因此，對於公司的每個業務部門和投資組合中的每個組成部分來說，情況都一樣。

And our next question is from Tom Diffely with D.A. Davidson.

下一個問題來自 Tom Diffely 和 D.A. Davidson。

So getting back to the memory side of the business, curious if there was any difference in your view of the bit growth for the NAND or the DRAM market.

回到記憶體業務方面，我很好奇您對 NAND 或 DRAM 市場的位元成長有何不同看法。

Not really. And no difference, frankly, from the view that opines by most of the market participants. I mean, we've got an assumption of the low 20s, for bit supply and DRAM, and we've got an assumption of the low 40s for NAND. So I think that's kind of genuinely consistent with what folks are talking about. From a transition point of view, maybe a little more to help you out. I mean, our assumption is that the kind of 1x, 1y investment levels in DRAM will represent somewhere around the 50% level, plus or minus kind of the 5 or 10 points by the end of the calendar year. And we're assuming by the end of the calendar year that the 3D-capable parts of the NAND installed base is a little over the 1 million wafer start per month level. So -- and obviously, it exists in various forms. So 3D isn't all generation 4 or generation 5. It's at the full portfolio, but we're well underway to making that the primary output technology of nonvolatile memory.

並不真地。坦白說，這與大多數市場參與者的觀點並無二致。我的意思是，我們假設 DRAM 的位元供應量在 20 左右，NAND 的位元供應量在 40 左右。所以我認為這跟大家討論的內容大致一致。從過渡的角度來看，或許可以提供一些幫助。我的意思是，我們假設到年底，DRAM 的 1 年期投資水準將達到 50% 左右，上下浮動 5 到 10 個百分點。我們假設到今年末，NAND 快閃記憶體晶片中具備 3D 列印能力的晶片數量將略高於每月 100 萬片晶圓的開工量。所以——顯然，它以各種形式存在。所以 3D 技術並非全是第四代或第五代產品。它涵蓋了所有產品組合，但我們正在努力使其成為非揮發性記憶體的主要輸出技術。

Okay, great. And then Doug, would you look at the margins and your guidance that still remain fairly healthy, are there any one time or mix benefits in the quarter, or are those expected margins based on the revenue?

好的，太好了。那麼，Doug，您能否看一下利潤率和您給出的指導意見，這些利潤率仍然相當健康？本季是否有任何一次性或組合性收益？還是這些預期利潤率是基於收入的？

Nothing I'd specifically point to, Tom. And business goes up, it goes down a little bit. We do have fixed costs, so that's probably a piece of what's going on. But there's also a product mix, a customer mix component. There's always a lot of things that move around quarter by quarter.

湯姆，我沒什麼特別想指出的。生意有起有落。我們確實有一些固定成本，所以這可能是造成這種情況的部分原因。但其中也包含產品組合和顧客組合等因素。每季都會有很多事情發生變化。

And the best profitability metric for the company, forward looking is the long-term model again.

從長遠來看，衡量公司獲利能力的最佳指標仍然是長期模型。

Yes, that's true.

是的，沒錯。

And next from RBC Capital Markets, we'll hear from Mitch Steves.

接下來，我們將聽聽來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的米奇史蒂夫斯的演講。

I just had one in terms of kind of a modeling question, if I look out for fiscal year '19 essentially. Just -- your margins have improved, both on the gross margins and operating margins trend over the last several years. Is there any reason that shouldn't continue? Or how do we think about, by and large, the operating margin profile for the next year or so?

我剛才有一個關於建模的問題，主要是關於 2019 財年的情況。只是——過去幾年，無論是毛利率還是營業利率，你們的利潤率都有所提高。有什麼理由不應該繼續下去嗎？或者，我們如何大致考慮未來一年左右的營業利潤率狀況？

Yes. Mitch, what I'd point you to is we put out in March an update to the long-term model, kind of looking at that, looking at our revenue levels, looking at where we've been in recent history and correlating the 2 data points, I think, is the best guidance I can give you to answer the question.

是的。米奇，我想指出的是，我們在三月發布了長期模型的更新版本，看看這個模型，看看我們的收入水平，看看我們最近的發展歷程，並將這兩個數據點關聯起來，我認為，這是我能給你的回答這個問題的最佳指導。

And next, we'll hear from Edwin Mok with Needham & Company.

接下來，我們將聽聽 Needham & Company 的 Edwin Mok 的演講。

Great. So I actually have a question around foundry. If I look at the numbers, it's been down quite a bit in fiscal '18 versus '17. I think we have heard it from other people, so I'm not surprised it's down. But just curious in the context at the September guidance, it's down, mostly all -- if not all in memory. Do you actually expect your foundry revenue to continue to grow sequentially? Or how do you think about that 3Q or in the calendar second half of the year?

偉大的。所以，我其實有個關於鑄造廠的問題。從數據上看，2018 財年與 2017 財年相比下降了不少。我想我們已經從其他人那裡聽說了，所以它宕機我並不感到驚訝。但就9月的指導意見而言，情況令人好奇，記憶體使用量幾乎全部下降——如果不是全部的話。你真的預期代工業務的收入會持續較上季成長嗎？或者，您如何看待第三季或下半年的情況？

Well, I mean, from a marketplace point of view, as I mentioned a few moments ago, there's much more stability at WFE and foundry, logic combined, first half and second half, and it's true in memory. And the specific purchasing decision timings for etch and deposition are, I think, kind of well understood at this point in time. They're a little later in the flow because of shorter lead times, perhaps, than the lithography investments at this point in time. And we have objectives to gain share, obviously, from 10 to 7, and in turn, to 5. And this year is largely a year of 7-nanometer build-outs and 5 pilots, with as you, I think, well understand, a pretty broad set of participation at the 28-nanometer level. And we don't have any new headlines today on the EUV, it's exactly the same as it was when we spoke on our analyst meeting. So it's a nice opportunity for the company, it continues to be a big focus. And yes, that's I guess the best I can share.

嗯，我的意思是，從市場角度來看，正如我剛才提到的，WFE 和代工廠、邏輯電路加起來，無論是前半年還是後半年，都更加穩定，記憶體電路也是如此。我認為，目前大家對蝕刻和沈積的具體購買決策時間已經有了比較清晰的了解。由於生產週期較短，它們的生產流程可能比目前光刻技術的投資慢一些。顯然，我們的目標是將市場份額從 10 奈米提升到 7 奈米，然後再提升到 5 奈米。今年主要是 7 奈米製程的建設和 5 個試點項目的開展，我想您也清楚，我們在 28 奈米製程方面也有相當廣泛的參與。今天關於 EUV 技術沒有任何新的新聞，情況和我們分析師會議上討論時完全一樣。所以這對公司來說是一個很好的機會，也是公司持續關注的重點。是的，我想這就是我能分享的全部了。

And then, Doug, just on the guidance, if I -- my back-of-the-envelope math tells me your OpEx is down around 10% on the September quarter. Is that all just from, call it, the leverage ratio or the model, or is there any incoming programs that you might be delaying that may come back in December? I -- we just wanted to understand how we think about that.

還有，Doug，關於業績指引，如果我粗略估算一下，你們的營運支出比九月的季度下降了約 10%。這只是基於槓桿率或模型，還是說有一些即將推出的項目可能會推遲到 12 月？我——我們只是想了解我們對此的看法。

What I'd tell you, relative to R&D programs, is nothing is delayed. Everything is going forward at the same pace as it always has been. We're not -- if there's a near-term move-around business, we're not messing around with any of that. I think I talk maybe a year or so ago that you're going to see more variability quarter-to-quarter in our spend, modulated by profit levels. Our variable compensation varies with the level of profit of the business. And so as profitability varies, spending varies, along with it. And as we look at softening in business for the quarter, we're very aggressively managing discretionary-type spending, things like travel and entertainment and whatnot, just to be responsive to the level of the business. So it's a combination of all of those things.

就研發專案而言，我可以告訴你的是，沒有任何專案延誤。一切都在以和以往一樣的速度向前發展。我們不會－如果近期有人員調動業務，我們不會參與其中。我記得大概一年前我說過，我們的支出將會出現更大的季度間波動，並且受到利潤水準的調節。我們的浮動薪酬會根據公司獲利水準而變動。因此，隨著獲利能力的變化，支出也會隨之改變。鑑於本季業務可能出現疲軟，我們正在積極控制非必需支出，例如差旅、娛樂等，以適應業務水平的變化。所以這是所有這些因素的綜合作用。

But I appreciate you asking the question and recognizing the efforts of the company that respond to balancing short term and long term because it's really hard to do. It takes a lot of time and efforts to create the guidance that you've just spoken to. So thank you for recognizing it.

但我很感謝你提出這個問題，並認可公司為平衡短期和長期利益所做的努力，因為這真的很難做到。制定你剛才提到的這份指導文件需要花費大量的時間和精力。所以，謝謝你的認可。

And next, we'll take a question from Weston Twigg with KeyBanc Capital Markets.

接下來，我們將回答來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Weston Twigg 提出的問題。

First, I just wanted to take a stab, C.J., at the beginning had asked your views on 2019 demand. And I don't need a number, but I'm just wondering, at this point, do you think you could be -- see a similar level of overall, with WFE next year, or up or down -- do you have a directional indication based on your conversations with customers?

首先，我只是想試探一下，C.J. 在一開始就問了你對 2019 年需求的看法。我不需要具體的數字，但我現在只是想知道，您認為明年 WFE 的整體水平會和今年類似，還是會上升或下降？根據您與客戶的交流，您有什麼方向性的預測嗎？

Yes. I mean, I think there's a number of kind of industry participants, statements in the marketplace today of equivalency or slightly up. I've seen the kind of $100 billion references over a couple of years. And I don't have a basis to kind of disagree with those to more specifically speak to something of substance from Lam, I would say, as well as having the expectation that December is higher than September. Our expectation is that the first half of next year is a stronger half than the second half of this year. And the order of magnitude, we'll speak to over time. But we feel really good about the health of the industry, as I've tried to speak to, we feel kind of really good about the value propositions that our customers are seeking, the discipline throughout the ecosystem and the opportunity for the company. And so while at some level it all feels like a pretty kind of negative moments in the history of our industry when we get these episodes. It's really good because it's a commentary on timeliness of response and discipline and health. And what should not get lost in this conversation is the fact that -- if you didn't believe us and you just thought that December EPS would be the same as the September EPS, we have growth in non-GAAP earnings of like 20% year-over-year. And in most of the companies that I've had an experience of working with, that's not such a bad number, right? And so -- and adjustments exists in the context of some pretty nice growth for the industry and for the company and obviously for our customers, that's even more true. So we feel pretty good.

是的。我的意思是，我認為目前市場上有許多行業參與者發表聲明，表示價格相等或略有上漲。過去幾年裡，我見過不少關於1000億美元的說法。我沒有理由反駁林先生的觀點，更具體地說，我想談談一些實質的內容，我也預期12月份的業績會高於9月份。我們預計明年上半年業績將強於今年下半年。至於數量級，我們會在以後的時間內討論。但正如我之前所說，我們對產業的健康狀況感到非常樂觀，我們對客戶所尋求的價值主張、整個生態系統的規範以及公司的發展機會都感到非常樂觀。因此，在某種程度上，當我們經歷這些事件時，感覺就像是我們行業歷史上相當負面的時刻。它真的很好，因為它對反應的及時性、紀律和健康進行了評論。而這個討論中不應該忽略的事實是——如果您不相信我們，並且認為 12 月份的每股收益將與 9 月份的每股收益相同，那麼我們的非 GAAP 收益同比增長了約 20%。在我合作過的大多數公司裡，這個數字還不錯，對吧？因此——在行業、公司以及我們的客戶都取得相當不錯的成長背景下，需要進行一些調整，這一點就更加明顯了。我們感覺還不錯。

Okay. That's helpful. And then just as a follow-up, I think I heard you definitely say, weakness in memory in Q3, or in September. But Martin, I think, I heard you say it was more of a dam -- DRAM, sorry, DRAM shift. And then I thought I heard Doug say, there was more trimming in NAND. And I was just wondering if you can clarify, what's the bigger driver of the downtick in September and that helps us understand the rebound a little bit better, I think.

好的。那很有幫助。然後，作為後續問題，我想我確實聽到您說過，第三季或九月會出現記憶力下降的情況。但是馬丁，我想，我聽你說它更像一個大壩——DRAM，抱歉，DRAM 移位。然後我好像聽到道格說，NAND 中還有更多的修剪工作。我想請您澄清一下，9 月經濟下滑的主要驅動因素是什麼？我認為這有助於我們更好地理解經濟反彈。

Yes. So I was kind of conscious of that potential risk as well as I listened to it. So what Doug was speaking to was kind of like the absolute kind of dollars comparison between the output of the company in the June quarter as compared to September, and he's right to say the biggest change there is NAND. What I was speaking to was the prominence of the adjustments in the last kind of month or so. And DRAM was the biggest adjustments in the last month or so. So that's how you reconcile the 2 statements.

是的。所以，我在聽的時候也意識到了這種潛在的風險。所以道格所說的，有點像是公司 6 月份季度與 9 月份季度產出的絕對美元數額的比較，他說得對，最大的變化是 NAND。我指的是最近一個月左右的調整的顯著性。而DRAM是過去一個月左右最大的調整。這就是調和這兩個說法的方法。

And there are no further questions in the queue. I'll turn the call back over to our speakers for closing comments. That concludes our call. Thank you very much, everyone, for joining and have a good afternoon.

隊列中已無其他問題。我將把電話交還給各位發言人，請他們作總結發言。通話到此結束。非常感謝各位的參與，祝大家下午愉快。

That concludes today's conference call. We thank you for joining.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。