科林研發 (LRCX) 2019 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the December Quarter Financial Conference Call.

大家好，歡迎參加 12 月季度財務電話會議。

At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Tina Correia, Corporate Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Communications. Please go ahead, ma'am.

現在，我想將會議交給公司投資者關係和企業傳播副總裁蒂娜·科雷亞 (Tina Correia)。請繼續，女士。

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to the Lam Research Quarterly Earnings Conference Call.

謝謝大家，下午好。歡迎參加 Lam Research 季度財報電話會議。

With me today are Tim Archer, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Doug Bettinger, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

今天與我一起的還有總裁兼執行長 Tim Archer；以及執行副總裁兼財務長 Doug Bettinger。

During today's call, we will share our overview on the business environment and review our financial results for the December 2018 quarter and our outlook for the March 2019 quarter. The press release detailing our financial results was distributed a little after 1:00 p.m. Pacific Time this afternoon. The release can also be found on the Investor Relations section of the company's website along with the presentation slides that accompany today's call.

在今天的電話會議上，我們將分享我們對商業環境的概述，並回顧我們 2018 年 12 月季度的財務業績以及我們對 2019 年 3 月季度的展望。詳細介紹我們財務業績的新聞稿是在下午 1 點後發布的。太平洋時間今天下午。新聞稿以及今天電話會議的簡報幻燈片也可在公司網站的投資者關係部分找到。

Today's presentation and Q&A includes forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties reflected in the risk factors disclosures of our SEC public filings. Please see accompanying slides in the presentation for additional information.

今天的演示和問答包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受我們向美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 提交的公開文件中的風險因素披露所反映的風險和不確定性的影響。請參閱簡報中附帶的幻燈片以獲取更多資訊。

Today's discussion of our financial results will be presented on a non-GAAP financial basis unless otherwise specified. A detailed reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP results can be found in today's earnings press release.

除非另有說明，今天對我們財務結果的討論將以非 GAAP 財務基礎呈現。在今天的收益新聞稿中可以找到 GAAP 和非 GAAP 結果之間的詳細對帳。

This call is scheduled to last until 3:00 p.m. Pacific Time. A replay of this call will be available later this afternoon on our website.

此次通話預計將持續到下午 3 點。太平洋時間。通話的重播將於今天下午晚些時候在我們的網站上提供。

With that, let me hand the call over to Tim.

說完這些，讓我把電話交給提姆。

Thank you all for joining us today. It's good to be here with you on my first earnings call as Lam's CEO. I have met many of you before in Lam events, but I recognize there are some on the call that may not know me quite well. So I'd like to start by briefly recapping how my experience at Lam and Novellus over the last 24 years has shaped my perspective on what it takes to compete and win in this business over the long term.

感謝大家今天的參與。我很高興能作為 Lam 的執行長參加我的第一次財報電話會議。我之前在 Lam 活動中見過你們中的許多人，但我意識到電話會議中的一些人可能不太了解我。因此，我想首先簡要回顧過去 24 年我在 Lam 和 Novellus 的經歷如何塑造了我對長期在該行業競爭並獲勝的看法。

I have been fortunate to have opportunities that expanded the company's operations from being embedded as a process engineer inside the development fab of one of our leading customers, to heading our technology organization in Japan, to leading product groups through periods of key technology inflections, to managing our worldwide sales organization. Most recently, I have been charged with driving company-wide business results as the CEO of Lam since the time of the merger with Novellus. During this period, from calendar 2013 to 2018, we grew revenue by 2.7x and increased earnings per share 2x faster than the increase in revenue.

我很幸運，有機會拓展公司的業務，從作為製程工程師嵌入我們一個主要客戶的開發工廠，到領導我們在日本的技術組織，到領導產品組度過關鍵技術轉變時期，再到管理我們的全球銷售組織。最近，自從 Lam 與 Novellus 合併以來，我一直擔任 Lam 的首席執行官，負責推動整個公司的業務成果。在此期間，從 2013 年到 2018 年，我們的營收成長了 2.7 倍，每股盈餘的成長速度是營收成長速度的 2 倍。

From my experiences, I believe in the critical importance of building deep and lasting customer collaborations founded on mutual trust. I am committed to continuously investing in a pipeline of differentiated products that help our customers address their most difficult technology and productivity challenges. And as we see in the current environment, I value having a flexible operating model that enables us to respond rapidly to market changes to ensure we deliver on our commitments to our customers as well as our shareholders.

根據我的經驗，我相信在相互信任的基礎上建立深厚而持久的客戶合作至關重要。我致力於持續投資差異化產品線，幫助我們的客戶解決最困難的技術和生產力挑戰。正如我們在當前環境中所看到的，我重視擁有一個靈活的營運模式，使我們能夠快速回應市場變化，確保我們履行對客戶和股東的承諾。

I believe we are still in the early stages of a long-term secular growth story for the industry and particularly for Lam. What you can expect to see from my leadership as CEO is increased focus on leveraging our core strengths to deliver technology and productivity solutions to the fastest-growing segments of the semiconductor equipment market, which, in the long term, we believe are those tied to the enablement of the emerging data economy. I am very proud of what our company has accomplished in recent years and I'm honored to have the opportunity to lead Lam to an even greater future.

我相信，我們仍處於該行業長期成長的早期階段，尤其是對於 Lam 而言。作為首席執行官，您可以期待看到我更加專注於利用我們的核心優勢，為半導體設備市場增長最快的領域提供技術和生產力解決方案，從長遠來看，我們相信這些解決方案與新興數據經濟的實現息息相關。我為公司近年來的成就感到非常自豪，並很榮幸有機會帶領 Lam 走向更美好的未來。

Before I continue, I want to provide an update on the investigation we announced in connection with Martin's departure. As you know from our December press release, our board formed an independent special committee to lead a thorough investigation into allegations of misconduct and conduct inconsistent with our core values. That investigation is now substantially complete and there have been no other personnel actions and none have been recommended by the special committee.

在繼續之前，我想先介紹一下我們宣布的與馬丁離職有關的調查的最新進展。正如您從我們 12 月的新聞稿中所知，我們的董事會成立了一個獨立的特別委員會，負責對不當行為和與我們的核心價值不符的行為的指控進行徹底調查。該調查目前已基本完成，沒有採取其他人事行動，特別委員會也沒有提出任何建議。

Core values have always been a foundation of Lam's success and I am committed to a culture of trust, respect and open communication built around an environment in which our employees feel free to speak up on workplace issues. To reinforce this culture, the special committee has recommended that we review our policies, practices and training related to workplace conduct and increase our communications on these topics. To reiterate what we said in December, the alleged misconduct did not call into question the integrity of the company's financial systems or controls and the special committee's investigation has confirmed this.

核心價值一直是 Lam 成功的基礎，我致力於建立一種信任、尊重和開放溝通的文化，讓我們的員工可以自由地談論工作場所問題。為了加強這種文化，特別委員會建議我們審查與工作場所行為相關的政策、實踐和培訓，並加強有關這些主題的溝通。重申我們 12 月的言論，涉嫌不當行為並未對公司財務系統或控制的完整性產生質疑，特別委員會的調查也證實了這一點。

Now turning to our view on the business. In line with our prior guidance, we delivered a solid December quarter despite a more challenging environment. We also completed the strongest calendar year in the history of the company with $10,871,000,000 in revenues, a 14% year-on-year increase. At the same time, we delivered growth in EPS of 27% and an increase in operating cash flows of more than 50% from the prior calendar year. I would like to thank our customers, our employees and our partners for their support and contribution to these results.

現在談談我們對業務的看法。與我們先前的預期一致，儘管環境更具挑戰性，但我們 12 月季度的業績依然穩健。我們也完成了公司史上最強勁的一年，營收達到 108.71 億美元，年增 14%。同時，我們的每股盈餘較上年增長了 27%，經營現金流較上年增長了 50% 以上。我要感謝我們的客戶、員工和合作夥伴對這些成果的支持和貢獻。

From Lam's perspective, industry performance for calendar 2018 came in largely as we have communicated in our prior earnings call. Overall, WFE was in line with our expectations of single-digit growth at approximately $50 billion with an increase in memory and a year-on-year decline in non-memory spending. Entering 2019, industry fundamentals have weakened, particularly within Memory segments, as customers continue to rein in both NAND and DRAM spending. At this point, 2019, WFE is looking to be down in the mid- to high teens range.

從 Lam 的角度來看，2018 年的產業表現與我們在先前的收益電話會議上所傳達的大致相同。總體而言，WFE 符合我們的預期，即個位數成長，約為 500 億美元，其中記憶體支出增加，非記憶體支出較去年同期下降。進入 2019 年，行業基本面已經減弱，尤其是在記憶體領域，因為客戶繼續控制 NAND 和 DRAM 支出。截至目前，2019 年，WFE 預計將下降至十幾個百分點左右。

For NAND, 2019 offers what we believe is a solid long-term setup for the industry and the supply bit growth rate is expected to decline throughout the year. NAND demand should continue to benefit from content increase in consumer and enterprise applications and we began to see initial signs of demand elasticity in the client SSD markets as we exited 2018.

對於 NAND，我們認為 2019 年為該行業提供了穩固的長期基礎，預計全年供應位成長率將下降。NAND 需求應繼續受益於消費者和企業應用內容的成長，並且在 2018 年即將結束時，我們開始看到客戶端 SSD 市場需求彈性的初步跡象。

In DRAM, while near-term dynamics remain challenging, customer behavior remains rational and industry profitability characteristics remain compelling. We believe customers are making prudent adjustments to capacity in response to the overall demand environment they are seeing. We expect DRAM, WFE spend correction to extend through 2019 where supply growth fall into the mid-teens as we exit the year.

在 DRAM 領域，雖然近期動態仍充滿挑戰，但客戶行為仍然理性，產業獲利特徵仍然引人注目。我們相信，客戶正在根據他們所看到的整體需求環境對產能進行審慎調整。我們預期 DRAM、WFE 支出調整將延續到 2019 年，到年底供應量成長將降至十五六成。

Non-memory segments are expected to grow in 2019. And with the continued rise and the importance of 3D architectures, technology innovation for transistor, interconnect and advanced packaging applications remains a critical priority for us as we grow our strategic relevance with our customers in this segment. In aggregate, we feel confident that we're operating in a rational industry environment, one that is well-positioned to deliver attractive long-term growth and opportunity.

預計 2019 年非記憶體領域將會成長。隨著 3D 架構的持續崛起和重要性，隨著我們與該領域客戶的策略相關性不斷增強，電晶體、互連和先進封裝應用的技術創新仍然是我們的首要任務。總的來說，我們相信我們正處於一個合理的行業環境中，這個環境完全有能力實現有吸引力的長期成長和機會。

With that as context, we are executing to the growth strategy that I described during our Investor Day earlier last year. Our strategy focuses along 3 primary vectors: Expanding the size of our served available markets, gaining market share in the segments in which we compete and increasing the recurring revenue stream we derive from our installed base. Etch and deposition processes are central to the success of our customers' technology road maps and we continue to make substantial, comprehensive yet disciplined investments in R&D to fund the innovation required to create differentiated solutions and long-term value.

在此背景下，我們正在執行我在去年早些時候的投資者日上所描述的成長策略。我們的策略主要集中在三個方面：擴大我們所服務的可用市場的規模、在我們競爭的領域中獲得市場份額以及增加我們從已安裝客戶群中獲得的經常性收入流。蝕刻和沈積過程對於我們客戶的技術路線圖的成功至關重要，我們將繼續在研發方面進行大量、全面且嚴謹的投資，以資助創造差異化解決方案和長期價值所需的創新。

In the December quarter, we continued to build on our leadership position in both NAND and DRAM for critical applications with key penetrations for high aspect ratio etch and 3D NAND dielectric stack deposition applications. Furthermore, we continue to extend our high aspect ratio etch leadership into non-memory segments with critical wins for metal interconnect and spacer applications at a leading Logic customer. The atomic layer deposition, film quality repeatability and productivity are fundamental elements of differentiation for Lam. During the quarter, we gained momentum in both DRAM and NAND with new application wins.

在 12 月季度，我們繼續鞏固在 NAND 和 DRAM 關鍵應用領域的領導地位，並在高深寬比蝕刻和 3D NAND 電介質堆疊沉積應用方面取得關鍵滲透。此外，我們繼續將高深寬比蝕刻領先地位擴展到非記憶體領域，並在領先的邏輯客戶的金屬互連和間隔物應用方面取得了關鍵勝利。原子層沉積、薄膜品質可重複性和生產率是 Lam 差異化的基本要素。在本季度，我們在 DRAM 和 NAND 領域均取得了發展勢頭，並獲得了新的應用勝利。

While we are pleased with these wins in critical applications, we are committed to strengthening the performance of our product portfolio across the board. Our R&D investments are squarely focused on achieving our vision of best-in-class products everywhere we compete.

雖然我們對在關鍵應用領域取得的這些勝利感到高興，但我們致力於全面加強我們產品組合的效能。我們的研發投資完全集中在實現我們在所有競爭領域提供一流產品的願景。

Turning now to revenue derived from our expanding installed base. Our Customer Support Business Group delivered another record year. Installed base revenue growth exceeded installed base unit growth again in 2018 with installed base units in the field ending the year at roughly 56,000 chambers. We closed out the year on a high note, signing with a key customer the single largest installed base deal in our history. Our focus with CSBG is to provide innovative products and services which create value for customers over the entire life cycle of tool ownership. We partner closely with customers as we help them extract increased technical capability and higher productivity from existing assets. And in return, we are building a strong recurring revenue stream for Lam. 2019 is shaping up to be another solid year for our Customer Support Business Group and our progress remains aligned with the long-term growth objectives communicated to the investment community early last year.

現在談談我們不斷擴大的安裝基礎所產生的收入。我們的客戶支援業務集團又創下了新的紀錄。2018 年安裝基數收入成長再次超過安裝基數單位成長，年底現場安裝基數單位約為 56,000 個。我們以高調結束了這一年，與一位重要客戶簽署了我們歷史上最大的單筆安裝基數交易。CSBG 的重點是提供創新產品和服務，在工具所有權的整個生命週期中為客戶創造價值。我們與客戶密切合作，幫助他們從現有資產中獲得更高的技術能力和生產力。作為回報，我們正在為 Lam 建立強勁的經常性收入來源。2019 年對於我們的客戶支援業務集團來說將是另一個穩健的一年，我們的進展與去年年初向投資界傳達的長期成長目標保持一致。

In closing, the business environment is more challenging than just a few quarters ago, but we are committed to delivering on our multidimensional growth strategy and, at the same time, responding to near-term revenue trends through a strong focus on operational efficiency. Lam has a proven track record of execution and we believe we are fundamentally well-positioned in the right segments of the market. The new $5 billion share buyback program we announced earlier today in our press release reflects our continued confidence in Lam's long-term opportunities. Doug will provide details on the program in his comments.

最後，商業環境比幾個季度前更具挑戰性，但我們致力於實現多維成長策略，同時透過高度關注營運效率來應對近期收入趨勢。Lam 擁有出色的執行力，我們相信我們在正確的市場領域佔據了有利地位。我們今天稍早在新聞稿中宣布的 50 億美元新股票回購計畫反映了我們對 Lam 長期機會的持續信心。道格將在他的評論中提供有關該計劃的詳細資訊。

Additionally, I'd like to mention that I'll be on the road in the coming weeks and look forward to meeting with many of you. I will also be participating in the Goldman Sachs Technology Conference in San Francisco on February 13.

此外，我想提一下，未來幾週我將外出，並期待與你們中的許多人會面。我還將於 2 月 13 日參加在舊金山舉行的高盛科技會議。

Thanks. And now, here's Doug.

謝謝。現在，請 Doug 發言。

Thanks, Tim. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today.

謝謝，蒂姆。大家下午好，感謝大家今天的參與。

Lam delivered solid performance in the December quarter with our results exceeding the midpoint of guidance for all financial metrics. Operating margin and earnings per share exceeded the high end of the guidance range provided, mainly due to our proactive management of our operating expenses.

Lam 在 12 月季度表現穩健，所有財務指標的表現均超出預期中位數。營業利潤率和每股收益超過了所提供的指導範圍的高端，這主要歸功於我們對營業費用的積極管理。

Overall Memory revenue increased slightly from the September quarter with the combined Memory segment making up 79% of total system revenue. Non-volatile memory revenue drove the increase in the Memory segment and it represented approximately 55% of system revenue. NAND investments were driven primarily by conversions to higher layer cut wafers. DRAM represented 24% of system revenue in the December quarter, which was roughly flat with the prior quarter. The majority of spending in all of Memory was targeted at conversions.

整體記憶體收入較 9 月季度略有增加，合併記憶體部分佔系統總收入的 79%。非揮發性記憶體收入推動了記憶體部門的成長，約佔系統收入的 55%。NAND 投資主要受到向更高層切割晶圓的轉換的推動。12 月季度，DRAM 佔系統收入的 24%，與上一季基本持平。記憶中的大部分支出都用於轉換。

The Foundry segment declined quarter-over-quarter, accounting for 13% of system revenue, mainly due to reduced China foundry investments. You may recall on the September call, I spoke about how strong that was and it declined somewhat in December.

晶圓代工部門季減，佔系統收入的 13%，主要原因是中國晶圓代工投資減少。您可能還記得，在九月的電話會議上，我談到了它的強勁表現，但到了十二月份，它有所下降。

The Logic/Other segment was up slightly, contributing 8% of system revenue.

邏輯/其他部門略有成長，貢獻了系統收入的 8%。

From an industry perspective, Tim discussed our view of 2019 WFE. Currently, we believe WFE spending is weighted to the first half of 2019, driven by foundry and logic investments. We believe memory investments will be meaningfully lower in 2019 while the combined foundry and logic will be up. Our assumption based on our customer interactions is that there is not a significant recovery in memory spending throughout 2019. We expect the year in memory will be mainly driven by lower conversions to lower our customers' cost per bit. DRAM spending will be primarily on conversions to 1y and a little bit of 1z and NAND converting to 96-layer devices.

從產業角度來看，Tim 討論了我們對 2019 年 WFE 的看法。目前，我們認為 WFE 支出主要集中在 2019 年上半年，主要受代工和邏輯投資的推動。我們相信，2019 年記憶體投資將大幅下降，而代工和邏輯投資總額將上升。根據我們與客戶的互動，我們假設 2019 年全年記憶體支出不會顯著復甦。我們預計今年的記憶體需求將主要受到轉換率降低的影響，以降低客戶的每位元成本。DRAM 支出將主要用於轉換為 1y 和少量 1z，以及將 NAND 轉換為 96 層設備。

Let me now turn to our P&L performance. We delivered revenues of $2,523,000,000 in the December quarter. This was up sequentially by 8% from September and was slightly above the midpoint of our guidance.

現在讓我來談談我們的損益表現。我們在 12 月季度實現了 2,523,000,000 美元的收入。這比 9 月環比增長了 8%，略高於我們預期的中位數。

Gross margin for the quarter came in at 46.3%. As I always do, I'll remind you our actual gross margins are a function of several factors such as business volume, product mix and customer concentration and we expect to see variability quarter-to-quarter.

本季毛利率為46.3%。正如我一直以來所做的那樣，我要提醒您，我們的實際毛利率取決於業務量、產品組合和客戶集中度等多種因素，我們預計每季都會有所不同。

Operating expenses in the quarter came in at $440 million, slightly down from the operating expense level in the September quarter. Worth noting, I think, we decreased our operating expenses for the first half of 2018 to the second half by approximately $100 million as we managed spending relative to the softer business environment. R&D comprised nearly 2/3 of our total spending, consistent with the composition of spending in the previous 2 quarters. We maintained a high percentage of our OpEx and R&D to support the long-term growth objectives for the company.

本季營運費用為 4.4 億美元，略低於 9 月季度的營運費用水準。值得注意的是，我認為，由於我們相對於較弱的商業環境管理支出，我們將 2018 年上半年至下半年的營運費用減少了約 1 億美元。研發支出占我們總支出的近三分之二，與前兩季的支出結構一致。我們維持較高的營運支出和研發比例，以支持公司的長期成長目標。

Operating income in the December quarter was $728 million. Operating margin came in over the guidance range at 28.8%, mainly as a result of the reduced spending within the quarter as well as gross margin that came in slightly above the midpoint of our guided range.

12 月當季營業收入為 7.28 億美元。營業利益率達 28.8%，超出預期，主要由於本季支出減少，且毛利率略高於預期的中點。

The non-GAAP tax rate for the December quarter came in at 10%, which was slightly lower than the long-term rate. This was due to discrete tax benefits realized relative to statute of limitations expirations within the quarter. In the longer run, a tax rate in the low to middle teens is the right range for you to continue to include in your models and there will be fluctuations in the tax rate from quarter-to-quarter.

12 月季度的非 GAAP 稅率為 10%，略低於長期稅率。這是由於本季度內訴訟時效到期而實現了單獨稅收優惠。從長遠來看，低至中等的稅率是您繼續納入模型的正確範圍，並且稅率會在每個季度之間波動。

Based on a share count of approximately 162 million shares, earnings per share for the December quarter came in at $3.87, which exceeded our guidance range. The share count includes dilution from the 2041 convertible notes, and the dilutive impact was approximately 6 million shares in the December quarter. I'll remind you that the dilution schedule for the 2041 convertible notes is available on our Investor Relations website for your reference. I'd also point out that the 2018 warrants matured during the December quarter.

根據約 1.62 億股的股票數量，12 月季度每股收益為 3.87 美元，超出了我們的指導範圍。股份數量包括 2041 張可轉換票據的稀釋，12 月季度的稀釋影響約為 600 萬股。我要提醒您，2041 年可轉換票據的稀釋計畫可在我們的投資者關係網站上查閱，供您參考。我還要指出的是，2018 年認股權證已於 12 月季度到期。

We continue to execute on our capital return program. For the December quarter, we paid out $168 million in dividends.

我們繼續執行我們的資本回報計劃。12 月季度，我們支付了 1.68 億美元的股息。

Related to the share buyback, in January of 2019, we completed our previous $4 billion share buyback authorization, repurchasing over 23 million shares in total. Additionally, as Tim mentioned and that we noted in the press release we issued today, our board has approved a new authorization to repurchase up to $5 billion of our common stock. Today's capital return announcement is consistent with our current plan of returning at least 50% of free cash flow to shareholders.

關於股票回購，2019 年 1 月，我們完成了先前 40 億美元的股票回購授權，總共回購了超過 2,300 萬股。此外，正如蒂姆所提到的以及我們在今天發布的新聞稿中指出的那樣，我們的董事會已經批准了一項新的授權，可以回購高達 50 億美元的普通股。今天的資本回報公告與我們目前向股東返還至少 50% 自由現金流的計劃一致。

In summary, for the calendar 2018 year, we returned $3 billion in share buybacks and over $500 million in dividends, which, along with the new authorization that was announced today, continues to demonstrate our commitment to shareholder return.

總而言之，在 2018 年度，我們透過股票回購返還了 30 億美元，並派發了超過 5 億美元的股息，這與今天宣布的新授權一起，繼續表明了我們對股東回報的承諾。

Our cash and short-term investments, including restricted cash, was flat with the September quarter at $3.9 billion. During the December quarter, our cash from operations came in at $642 million, which was offset by pay down on our commercial paper program of approximately $360 million as well as the dividends that I previously mentioned. From the 2018 calendar year, our cash from operations was over $3 billion. This was consistent with what I mentioned in the last earnings call.

我們的現金和短期投資（包括受限現金）與 9 月季度持平，為 39 億美元。在 12 月季度，我們的經營現金流入為 6.42 億美元，但這筆現金被我們支付的約 3.6 億美元的商業票據計劃以及我之前提到的股息所抵消。從 2018 年開始，我們的經營現金流超過 30 億美元。這與我在上次財報電話會議上提到的一致。

DSO during the quarter decreased by 5 days to 67 days. Our inventory level decreased and, consistent with our expectations, inventory turns increased to 3.2x, which was an improvement from 2.7x in the prior quarter.

本季的 DSO 減少了 5 天，降至 67 天。我們的庫存水準下降，並且與我們的預期一致，庫存週轉率增加到 3.2 倍，比上一季的 2.7 倍有所改善。

Company noncash expenses included approximately $39 million for equity comp, $36 million for amortization and $46 million for depreciation.

公司非現金支出包括約 3,900 萬美元的股權補償、3,600 萬美元的攤銷和 4,600 萬美元的折舊。

Capital expenditures came in at $106 million in the December quarter, which was an increase of $56 million from September. Due to the timing of certain projects, December quarter CapEx was a little bit on the high side of what we expected.

12 月季度的資本支出為 1.06 億美元，比 9 月增加了 5,600 萬美元。由於某些項目的時間安排，12 月季度的資本支出略高於我們的預期。

I expect that as we go into calendar 2019, CapEx will be somewhat lower than the 2018 level. As we noted in the last quarter, our CapEx investments are focused on manufacturing expansion for our installed base business as well as strategic R&D investments.

我預計，進入 2019 年，資本支出將略低於 2018 年的水準。正如我們在上個季度所指出的，我們的資本支出主要集中在已安裝基礎業務的製造擴張以及策略性研發投資。

We exited the quarter with approximately 10,950 regular full-time employees, which was relatively flat with September quarter. I think it's worth noting that we maintained flexibility in managing our costs by adjusting our temporary workforce for short-term changes in business conditions. We reduced our temporary headcount by over 700 people since the peak levels we were carrying earlier this year.

本季末，我們擁有約 10,950 名正式全職員工，與 9 月季度基本持平。我認為值得注意的是，我們透過根據業務條件的短期變化調整臨時勞動力來保持成本管理的靈活性。自今年稍早的高峰以來，我們將臨時員工人數減少了 700 多人。

So looking ahead, I'd like to provide our non-GAAP guidance for the March quarter. We're expecting revenue of $2,400,000,000, plus or minus $150 million. We're forecasting gross margin of 44.5%, plus or minus 1 percentage point. Gross margin will decline sequentially due to customer concentration, product mix and lower factory volumes. And I just mentioned, as we sit here today, we expect the gross margin percentage will be at a low point in March relative to the rest of calendar year 2019. We're forecasting operating margins of 25%, plus or minus 1 percentage point. And finally, earnings per share of $3.40, plus or minus $0.20, based on a share count of approximately 159 million shares.

展望未來，我想為三月季度提供非公認會計準則指引。我們預計營收為 24 億美元，上下浮動 1.5 億美元。我們預測毛利率為 44.5%，上下浮動 1 個百分點。由於客戶集中度、產品組合和工廠產量下降，毛利率將持續下降。我剛才提到，我們今天坐在這裡，預計 3 月的毛利率相對於 2019 年剩餘時間而言將處於較低水準。我們預測營業利益率為 25%，上下浮動 1 個百分點。最後，每股收益為 3.40 美元，上下浮動 0.20 美元，基於約 1.59 億股的股票數量。

I'll just remind you that in the March quarter, we have an extra work week in the fiscal quarter, which happens approximately every 6 years due to the fiscal calendar cutoff. March spending is expected to be higher in cost of goods sold as well as operating expenses as a result of the extra work week. I'll also remind you that the March quarter has seasonal impacts due to payroll taxes that go up in the beginning of the year. Both of these things are included in our stated guidance.

我只是想提醒你，在三月季度，我們的財政季度有一個額外的工作週，由於財政日曆截止日期，這種情況大約每 6 年發生一次。由於額外的工作週，預計三月的銷售成本和營運費用將會更高。我還要提醒您，由於年初工資稅上漲，三月季度會受到季節性影響。這兩件事都包含在我們所述的指導中。

For 2019, first half business view is lower than our prior outlook given the recent announcements of reductions that you've seen from commentary from others in the technology space. With this current environment, we continue to exercise discipline in our spending and we're focused on prioritizing investments that support Lam's SAM expansion, market share gains and installed base growth.

對於 2019 年，鑑於您從技術領域其他人的評論中看到的最近削減公告，上半年的業務展望低於我們先前的預期。在當前環境下，我們將繼續嚴格控制支出，並專注於優先投資支持 Lam 的 SAM 擴張、市場份額成長和安裝基數成長。

Operator, that concludes my prepared remarks. Tim and I would now like to open up the call for questions.

接線員，我的準備好的發言到此結束。提姆和我現在想開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) And we'll take our first question today from C.J. Muse with Evercore.

（操作員指示）今天我們將回答來自 Evercore 的 C.J. Muse 提出的第一個問題。

I guess, first question. As you think about WFE levels in the 4Q and 1Q time frame, can you share with us what you think the implied forward bit rate growth rate is for both DRAM and NAND?

我想，這是第一個問題。當您考慮第 4 季和第 1 季的 WFE 水準時，您能否與我們分享您認為 DRAM 和 NAND 的隱含未來比特率成長率是多少？

C.J., it's Doug. I think, generally speaking, as Tim mentioned, we expect bit growth as we go through 2019 to decline as we go through the year as customers adjust their spending. Overall, I think 2018 ended from a NAND standpoint in the low 40s. DRAM, I think, is low 20s. And we expect that to decline as we go through 2019, Tim, as customers adjust their spending levels.

C.J.，我是 Doug。我認為，一般來說，正如蒂姆所提到的，隨著客戶調整支出，我們預計 2019 年的比特成長率將會下降。總體而言，我認為從 NAND 的角度來看，2018 年的價格將在 40 出頭左右。我認為 DRAM 的價格在 20 多美元。提姆，我們預計，隨著客戶調整支出水平，2019 年這一數字將會下降。

Tim, would you add anything?

提姆，你還有什麼要補充嗎？

No, I think that's a -- the comment is we, at this point, see us ending the year below what Lam has said about the long-term sustainable demand growth rates. So I think that the -- it's why we're pretty optimistic about the setup exiting 2019.

不，我認為——目前我們的評論是，我們預計今年年底的需求成長率將低於林鄭月娥所說的長期可持續需求成長率。所以我認為——這就是我們對 2019 年結束後的安排非常樂觀的原因。

I guess, if I could clarify the question. If you look at order run rates today, what is the implied bit growth that will come online, say, 3 or 4 quarters from now? I think you've done analysis on that where I think Q4 DRAM, we're tracking maybe up 10% if spending just stayed at that -- at those levels. Is there any analysis you can share there with us on both DRAM and NAND?

我想，如果我能澄清這個問題的話。如果您查看今天的訂單運行率，那麼從現在起的 3 或 4 個季度內，隱含的位元成長將是多少？我認為你已經對此進行了分析，我認為如果第四季度 DRAM 支出保持在該水平，我們可能會追蹤 10% 的成長。您能與我們分享 DRAM 和 NAND 的分析嗎？

Yes, Tim. I don't have specific numbers for you except what we described, which is as we go through the year, it's going to decline as customers adjust their spending level.

是的，提姆。除了我們所描述的之外，我沒有具體的數字可以提供給您，也就是說，隨著時間的流逝，隨著客戶調整其支出水平，這一數字將會下降。

Okay. As a follow-up, I'm trying to do a little bit more work here and better understand your leverage to technology versus capacity buys, in particular as it relates on the 3D NAND side and high aspect ratio etch. So can you walk through what percentage of overall etch spend r etch is in 3D, particularly as we scale up the layer counts?

好的。作為後續，我嘗試在這裡做更多的工作，更好地了解您對技術與產能購買的槓桿作用，特別是與 3D NAND 方面和高縱橫比蝕刻相關的槓桿作用。那麼，您能否介紹一下總體蝕刻支出中 r 蝕刻在 3D 中的百分比，特別是當我們增加層數時？

Yes, Tim. We haven't given hard numbers on that because I think as customers invest in conversions, they spend less money, but they spend more as a percentage on etch and deposition. We described that consistently in the past and that's very much what we see happening this year.

是的，提姆。我們沒有給出確切的數字，因為我認為隨著客戶在轉換方面的投資，他們花費的錢會減少，但在蝕刻和沈積方面的支出比例會更高。我們過去曾多次描述過這一點，而今年我們看到的也正是如此。

But I think if the question was the percentage of high aspect ratio applications where Lam's position is very strong, it's increasing node by node. And that's just based on the fact that it takes longer in general to complete those etches. And that's obviously our task to make those continuously faster, but it is increasing at each technology node.

但我認為，如果問題是林立的地位非常強的高縱橫比應用的百分比，那麼它正在逐個節點地增加。這只是基於這樣一個事實：完成這些蝕刻通常需要更長的時間。顯然，我們的任務就是讓它們的速度不斷加快，但每個技術節點的速度都在提高。

Next, we'll hear from Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

接下來，我們來聽聽瑞銀的蒂莫西·阿庫裡 (Timothy Arcuri) 的發言。

Doug and Tim, I had a question just about the trajectory of the year. So if I take the WFE you guys are guiding to like 42 for this year, it looks like your product WFE share, you don't tell us what services are, but it looks like your product WFE share is somewhat in the low 15s the past couple of years. So if I just assume they stay flat, which I wonder that it will given that EUV's ramping, that implies that revenue kind of like is flat throughout the rest of the year from this level. Is that the wrong way to think about it?

道格和提姆，我有一個關於今年發展軌跡的問題。因此，如果我將你們今年指導的 WFE 定為 42，那麼看起來你們的產品 WFE 份額，你們沒有告訴我們哪些服務，但看起來你們的產品 WFE 份額在過去幾年中處於 15% 左右。因此，如果我假設它們保持平穩，考慮到 EUV 的成長，我很好奇這種情況是否會發生，這意味著收入在今年剩餘時間內將與這個水平持平。這樣想是不是錯？

Tim, I think what we're trying to describe here -- sorry. Yes, Tim, I'm getting confused who I'm talking to. I think as the year sets up, we expect the first half of the year is going to be weighted towards foundry and logic. It will be stronger in the first half than the second half. And memory is maybe a little bit stronger in the second half than the first half. We don't see a significant recovery occurring, not in memory, I would point that out. But I think, as you know, we tend to be very, very strong in memory. So with memory down year-on-year, our share likely trends along with that. That's not a statement around any application, win or loss. It's just a statement of who's spending money.

提姆，我想我們在這裡試圖描述的是——抱歉。是的，提姆，我搞不清楚我在跟誰說話。我認為，隨著新年的到來，我們預計上半年的重點將放在代工和邏輯上。上半年會比下半年更強。後半部的記憶力可能比前半部強一點。我想指出的是，我們沒有看到明顯的復甦，至少在記憶中沒有。但我認為，如你所知，我們的記憶力往往非常強。因此，隨著記憶體逐年下降，我們的份額可能也會隨之下降。這不是關於任何申請的聲明，無論成功或失敗。這只是一份關於誰在花錢的聲明。

Tim, would you add anything?

提姆，你還有什麼要補充嗎？

Yes. I think, internally in the company, your -- I don't think your thinking is too far off. And we look at the most important measures of success for us this year and it is how we're doing on the applications that we want to make sure that we own when the spending does pick up. And as long as we're doing that, then the precise timing of when spending comes back in NAND is less important to us. So it's really our focus.

是的。我認為，在公司內部，你的想法並不太離譜。我們今年關注的最重要的成功指標是我們在應用程式方面的表現，我們希望確保當支出增加時我們能夠擁有這些應用程式。只要我們這樣做，那麼 NAND 支出何時恢復的確切時間對我們來說就不那麼重要了。所以這確實是我們的重點。

Got it. And then, Doug, I had a question on deferred revenue. It was down about $130 million again. So it sounds like shipments were more like maybe $2.4 billion for the fourth quarter. So the question is how much more can you draw down deferred revenue? Because obviously, it sounds like if you give a shipment in March, they'd be lower than $2.4 billion. But where does that number -- where does that $493 million -- where is the deferred revenue? Where does that bottom out?

知道了。然後，道格，我有一個關於遞延收入的問題。其又下跌了約1.3億美元。因此聽起來第四季的出貨量可能達到 24 億美元。那麼問題是，您還能提領多少遞延收入？因為很明顯，聽起來如果你在三月發貨，金額會低於 24 億美元。但是這個數字在哪裡——4.93億美元在哪裡——遞延收入在哪裡？最低點在哪裡？

Yes. I think I described it, Tim, in the past. It's going to run about $100 million quarter-on-quarter. I think some quarters, it will be down as you're seeing now. In some quarters, I think it will also be up. I don't know that it meaningfully changes from the level where it's at right now, but it will vary, depend on the percentage of new tools we're shipping, how strong the business with certain customers is. There's certain regions of the world it's a little bit different. I don't view it as going to 0 at any point, Tim, but it will bounce around plus or minus $100 million is how I'd be thinking about it.

是的。提姆，我想我以前曾描述過它。該季度的營業額將達到約 1 億美元。我認為在某些季度，它會像你現在看到的那樣下降。在某些方面，我認為它也會上升。我不知道它是否會從現在的水平發生有意義的變化，但它會有所不同，取決於我們運送的新工具的百分比，以及與某些客戶的業務有多強勁。世界上某些地區的情況略有不同。提姆，我並不認為它會在任何時候降到 0，但我認為它會在正負 1 億美元之間波動。

Okay. Got it. So Doug, that means that shipments are about equal to revenue for March. Is that right?

好的。知道了。道格，這意味著三月的出貨量大約等於收入。是嗎？

I'm not guiding shipments anymore, Tim. What I said was it will be plus or minus $100 million quarter-by-quarter. Some quarters, it would be down. Some quarters would be up. It's all just timing, quite honestly.

我不再指導貨運了，提姆。我所說的是，每季的增減幅度將是 1 億美元。在某些季度，這一數字可能會下降。有些季度將會上漲。坦白說，這只是時機問題。

We'll now hear from John Pitzer with Credit Suisse.

我們現在來聽聽瑞士信貸的約翰‧皮策的發言。

Doug, maybe another way to ask Tim's question. I was intrigued that you commented that March quarter should be the bottom in gross margin for the year. I'm just kind of curious, is that because you expect March to be the low point in revenue or are there mix drivers that help gross margin going forward?

道格，也許可以用另一種方​​式來問提姆的問題。您評論說三月季度應該是今年毛利率最低的季度，這讓我很感興趣。我只是有點好奇，這是因為您預計 3 月將是收入的低點，還是有混合驅動因素有助於未來毛利率的提高？

I always say, John, there's a variety of different things that impact gross margin. I even mentioned 3 things. Overall business volume is a component, but as I think you know, we have a highly variable cost structure. This isn't a big fixed cost business. This isn't like our customers. We're highly variable on our cost. Tool mix is important. Not all of our tools have the same gross margin. And sometimes, that mix will be beneficial sequentially. Sometimes, it will be negative. And then customer concentration, when you get the bigger customer spending more or it's a more concentrated customer, you might have a little bit of margin headwind. All of those things are important to think about relative to the trend in gross margin and all of those are relevant to the comment I had about March being a low point.

我總是說，約翰，有各種各樣的因素都會影響毛利率。我什至提到了三件事。整體業務量是一個組成部分，但我想您知道，我們的成本結構變化很大。這不是一個大的固定成本業務。這不像我們的顧客。我們的成本差異很大。工具組合很重要。並非所有工具都具有相同的毛利率。有時，這種組合會逐漸帶來好處。有時，它會是負面的。然後是客戶集中度，當你獲得更大的客戶並花費更多或客戶更加集中時，你可能會遇到一點利潤逆風。所有這些事情對於毛利率趨勢來說都是值得考慮的重要因素，而且所有這些都與我所說的三月是低點有關。

That's helpful. And then maybe kind of a follow-up to C.J.'s question, just relative -- appreciate the fact that in this volatile environment, your willingness to give us a view on the full year on WFE being down mid- to high-teens. I'm just kind of curious, when you look at your SAM and whether that be some incremental share gains on the logic front at 10 or some incremental SAM gains as we go from 64 to 96 and/or 1x to 1y to 1z, do you think your SAM outperforms, performs in line or underperforms the overall WFE this year, Tim?

這很有幫助。然後也許可以算是對 C.J. 問題的後續，只是相對而言——感謝您願意在這種動蕩的環境中告訴我們對全年 WFE 下降中到十幾個百分點的看法。我只是有點好奇，當您查看您的 SAM 時，無論是在 10 的邏輯方面有一些增量份額收益，還是從 64 到 96 和/或 1x 到 1y 到 1z 的一些增量 SAM 收益，您認為您的 SAM 今年的表現優於、與整體 WFE 持平還是遜色，？

I think if we -- taking all those things into account you just said, I would think that we feel that our SAM actually underperforms WFE this year. And that's primarily because of the heavy concentration of our SAM in 3D NAND this year as you know. And so I think that should be the expectation if the year plays out as we have described, which is no material increase in 3D NAND or NAND spending through the year.

我認為如果我們 - 考慮到您剛才說的所有這些因素，我會認為我們今年的 SAM 實際上表現不如 WFE。如你所知，這主要是因為今年我們的 SAM 高度集中在 3D NAND 上。因此，我認為，如果今年的情況如我們所描述的那樣，那麼這應該是可以預期的，即全年 3D NAND 或 NAND 支出不會出現實質增加。

Krish Sankar with Cowen has our next question.

Cowen 的 Krish Sankar 提出了我們的下一個問題。

I had 2 of them. First one, Doug and Tim, just trying to reconcile what you said in the front cap WFE here versus what ASML said. Is it fair to assume is it because the back half is mainly concentrated on EUV from the foundry side? And then I have a follow-up, too.

我有 2 個。首先，Doug 和 Tim，我只是想調和一下你們在前面 WFE 所說的內容與 ASML 所說的。是否可以假設這是因為後半部主要集中在代工廠方面的 EUV 上？然後我還有一個後續行動。

Well, I think there's a few things. I'll let Doug jump in here with his comments as well. But the -- when you look at ASML's comments and the best we understand them and talking about a recovery in DRAM in the second half of the year, that's not necessarily inconsistent with us exiting the year with a better setup for the first half. I think you have to think about the way the tools come into fabs and new projects. Our experience is that litho and metrology tools usually lead etch and deposition tools sometimes by as much as a quarter or so. So that made -- those things may be not inconsistent and that's kind of the way we're thinking about it. I mean, I guess, our view, everybody in this environment have a slightly different view that spending could come back, but we're wanting to state at this point that our best view from conversations with customers is no material increase in memory spending throughout 2019.

嗯，我認為有幾件事。我也會讓 Doug 來發表他的評論。但是——當你看到 ASML 的評論以及我們對它們的理解，並談論下半年 DRAM 的復甦時，這不一定與我們在年底為上半年做好更好的準備不一致。我認為你必須考慮工具進入晶圓廠和新專案的方式。我們的經驗是，光刻和計量工具通常領先蝕刻和沈積工具，有時領先幅度可達四分之一左右。所以，這些事情可能並不矛盾，這就是我們思考這個問題的方式。我的意思是，我想，我們的觀點是，在這種環境下，每個人都對支出可能會回升有稍微不同的看法，但我們現在想說的是，從與客戶的對話中我們得到的最佳觀點是，2019 年全年內存支出不會出現實質性增加。

Yes. I don't have anything to really add, Krish. I think as Tim said, litho usually leads our stuff. And we'll tell you what we're seeing right now. We could have it wrong. But when we parsed what we heard from ASML, it didn't really feel inconsistent to us.

是的。我沒什麼好補充的，克里什。我認為正如蒂姆所說，平面印刷通常引領我們的工作。我們將告訴您我們現在看到的情況。我們可能錯了。但當我們分析從 ASML 聽到的消息時，我們並沒有感覺到矛盾。

Got it. Got it. Actually, that's very helpful, Tim and Doug. As a follow-up question, when you talk to your memory customers, I'm kind of curious how did they look at CapEx? Are they waiting for your pricing/margins to bottom before they start getting comfortable about buying semi cap equipment or is it going to be in tandem or does one lead the other? And as a subset to that, which do you think is going recover first from hereon, is it NAND or DRAM?

知道了。知道了。事實上，這非常有幫助，蒂姆和道格。作為後續問題，當您與記憶體客戶交談時，我有點好奇他們如何看待資本支出？他們是否在等待您的定價/利潤率降至最低，然後才開始放心購買半導體設備，還是會同時進行，或者會先進行其中一項？作為其中的一部分，您認為從現在開始哪一個會先復甦，是 NAND 還是 DRAM？

Well, it's a tough question. I mean, I think there's -- actually, when they're going to spend is a question better asked to them, I mean, exactly what metrics they are looking at.

嗯，這是一個很難回答的問題。我的意思是，我認為──實際上，他們什麼時候花錢這個問題最好問他們，我的意思是，他們到底關注什麼指標。

I guess, if we look at which of the 2, NAND or DRAM, might recover earlier, I guess, if we look back, we saw NAND correction starting earlier in 2018 than DRAM did. And so we're -- I guess, at the end of the day, it's all about demand, but we see both of them tracking, as we get to the end of the year, well below what we think are the long-term demand growth bit rates. So either one could recover, neither one could recover. I mean, that's -- it's not a great view, but we think that, in both cases, the market sets up for investment in either one as we exit the year.

我想，如果我們看看 NAND 或 DRAM 這兩者中哪一個可能更早復甦，我想，如果我們回顧一下，我們會看到 NAND 的修正在 2018 年比 DRAM 更早開始。所以，我想，歸根結底，這都是關於需求的，但我們看到，到今年年底，它們的追蹤數據都遠低於我們認為的長期需求成長比特率。因此，要嘛一方可以恢復，要嘛雙方都無法恢復。我的意思是，這不是一個很好的觀點，但我們認為，在這兩種情況下，當我們結束今年時，市場都會為其中任何一種投資做好準備。

Yes. What I would tell you, my own personal view, Krish, is it will recover at some point. That I know for sure. And the trend we see relative to spending in the year that we just described suggests to both Tim and I that they're going to need to invest relative to long-term bit demand. We just don't necessarily see it happening in 2019 quite yet, at least not in a meaningful way.

是的。我想告訴你的是，克里什，我個人的觀點是，它會在某個時候恢復。我確信這一點。我們剛剛描述的年度支出趨勢向提姆和我表明，他們需要根據長期需求進行投資。我們只是還不一定會認為它在 2019 年就會發生，至少不會以有意義的方式發生。

Our next question comes from Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Harlan Sur。

Thanks for all the detail and outlook for 2019. But can you guys just true us up on your prior view first half '19 versus the second half of last year? Relative to the weak spending environment, how are you seeing the first half of this year relative to last year second half?

感謝您對 2019 年的所有詳細資訊和展望。但是，你們能否根據先前對 2019 年上半年與去年下半年的對比預測，來判斷一下情況如何？相對於疲軟的支出環境，您認為今年上半年與去年下半年相比有何表現？

Yes. Harlan, what I tried to described in my remarks is first half of '19 now looks weaker than it previously did. And I'm not going to give quantification of it because then I'd essentially be guiding you for 2 quarters. We're going to get back to our normal practice of guiding one quarter at a time. But given the well-understood weakness of smartphones and inventory adjustments in some of our customers as well as the cloud guys, it's somewhat weaker than it was when we described it last time.

是的。哈蘭，我在我的評論中試圖描述的是，2019 年上半年看起來比以前更弱。我不會對此進行量化，因為那樣的話我基本上只能指導你兩個季度。我們將恢復正常的做法，每次指導一個季度。但考慮到智慧型手機的弱點以及我們一些客戶和雲端運算公司的庫存調整，它比我們上次描述時要弱一些。

Great. Appreciate the insights there. And then given the view on WFE being down kind of mid- to high-teens this year, at the same time, the team had a strong shipment growth last couple of years. You were driving -- I was looking at it first half of last year, you guys were driving like 25% year-over-year shipment growth. Many of these tools are coming off warranty and onto service contracts this year. So this should be a tailwind for the team. So how should we think about the installed base business trajectory relative to your WFE outlook?

偉大的。感謝您的見解。然後考慮到今年 WFE 的銷量將下降到十幾歲到十幾歲的水平，與此同時，該團隊在過去幾年的出貨量卻強勁增長。你們推動了——我看去年上半年的情況是，你們推動了同比出貨量 25% 的成長。其中許多工具今年的保固期已結束，並開始簽訂服務合約。所以這對球隊來說應該是一個順風。那麼，我們該如何看待相對於您的 WFE 前景的已安裝基礎業務軌跡？

Well, I guess, I tried to cover some of that in my opening remarks. But clearly, we feel very good about our installed base business on 2 dimensions. One, the strength of Lam's business over the last several years has caused our overall installed base to grow. So there's more tools for which we can sell things. And 2, we've been investing in that business to create new products and services. Some in the areas of -- this can be data economy, using data to make our tools more productive for customers. And those products and services are getting traction and this will be another strong year for CSBG for our installed base business. So that's a focus of mine and I think it provides a very important revenue stream for the company long-term.

嗯，我想，我試圖在開場白中涵蓋其中的一些內容。但顯然，我們對兩個維度上的安裝基礎業務感到非常滿意。首先，過去幾年來，Lam 業務的強勁成長帶動了我們整體安裝基礎的成長。因此我們可以銷售更多的工具。第二，我們一直在投資該業務以創造新的產品和服務。其中一些領域可以是數據經濟，利用數據讓我們的工具為客戶帶來更多生產力。這些產品和服務正在獲得關注，對於 CSBG 的安裝基礎業務來說，今年將是另一個強勁的一年。這是我的關注點，我認為它為公司長期提供了非常重要的收入來源。

Our next question comes from Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的喬·摩爾。

On that topic of installed base business, I wonder if you guys have considered providing sort of better disclosure around that? It seems like that would go a long way towards understanding the sustainability of that business versus the other parts of the business.

關於已安裝基礎業務的話題，我想知道你們是否考慮過提供更好的揭露方式？這似乎有助於理解該業務相對於其他業務部分的可持續性。

Yes, I guess, we haven't really accomplished our objective very well, Joe. We've been talking a lot more about it more recently then we have. We're providing you with tools kind of the installed base on a consistent basis and I will try to make it easy to understand everything we talked about in the past.

是的，我想，我們還沒有很好地實現我們的目標，喬。我們最近對此進行了更多的討論。我們會持續為您提供已安裝基礎的工具，我會盡力讓您輕鬆理解我們過去討論的所有內容。

Relative to segment reporting, we're not going to do that. We don't need to because we're not tripping the role up there. And from a competitive standpoint, we don't necessarily want to have an out quite as visible unless we have to, but it is a meaningful part of how we generate profit. It's a meaningful part of how we generate cash for sure. And we're trying to talk more about it so you understand it. I mean, Tim talked quite a bit about it. So we'll keep trying to do a better job, Joe.

相對於分部報告，我們不會這麼做。我們不需要這樣做，因為我們不會妨礙這個角色。從競爭的角度來看，除非迫不得已，否則我們不一定希望將差距拉得這麼大，但這是我們創造利潤的重要組成部分。這無疑是我們創造現金的一個有意義的一部分。我們正在嘗試對此進行更多討論，以便您能夠理解。我的意思是，蒂姆談論了很多這件事。所以我們會繼續努力做得更好，喬。

Great. That's helpful. And then, I guess, in terms of the buyback and the pace of the buyback and the 50% of free cash, what's your assessment of the right amount of cash to have on the balance sheet? And do you need to have any? Can they be leveraged? Just how do you think long term about what the balance sheet should look like?

偉大的。這很有幫助。然後，我想，就回購、回購速度和 50% 的自由現金而言，您如何評估資產負債表上的適當現金量？你需要嗎？它們能被利用嗎？從長遠來看，您認為資產負債表應該是什麼樣子的？

Yes. It's a good question, Joe. I haven't communicated specific numbers. We need a certain amount of cash. We like to be able to fund a certain amount of R&D and CapEx and so forth. We're carrying more cash today than we need to, to run the company. What we decide to do relative to that, I think, will evolve over time, but I don't have a hard and fast number that I'm going to share with you necessarily. We certainly could have more debt on the balance sheet though if we chose to do that.

是的。這是個好問題，喬。我還沒有透露具體的數字。我們需要一定數量的現金。我們希望能夠為一定金額的研發和資本支出等提供資金。我們目前持有的現金超過了營運公司所需的數量。我認為，我們決定採取的措施將隨著時間的推移而發展，但我沒有一個必須與你們分享的硬性數字。如果我們選擇這樣做的話，我們的資產負債表上肯定會有更多的債務。

And the pace of the buyback, I think we're going to be opportunistic. I'm not going to communicate a time frame. And I'll let you know quarter-by-quarter on how we're thinking about it and what we're doing.

至於回購的步伐，我認為我們將抓住機會。我不會透露時間框架。我會每季向大家通報我們對此的看法以及我們正在採取的措施。

Patrick Ho with Stifel has our next question.

Stifel 的 Patrick Ho 向我們提出了下一個問題。

Maybe first question in terms of the installed base business. I think in your last Analyst Day, you talked about $1 billion incremental opportunity. Over the next 3 to 5 years, how do you see the revenue growth rate? Is this a 10% type of growth business? Or do you see it higher to get to that incremental $1 billion you talked about?

也許第一個問題與已安裝基礎業務有關。我想在您上次的分析師日上，您談到了 10 億美元的增量機會。未來3至5年，您認為收入成長率如何？這是 10% 類型的成長業務嗎？或者您認為達到您所說的增量 10 億美元會更高嗎？

I guess, yes. So you'll recall the $1 billion number. I mean, as we mentioned, we're on -- we feel we are on track for that trajectory. At the Investor Day, we said that the installed base business was approximately 25% of our total revenue. And so, I guess, with that information, you kind of figure out the growth rate. It's a business that is definitely growing. Our objective is to have the installed base business itself grow faster than the rate of growth of the installed base. And now, again, we provide information this year with the installed base growing from approximately 50,000 chambers to ending -- year ending 56,000 chambers at the end of last year. So maybe with those, you can triangulate the numbers. We can also maybe do it for you and get back to you.

我想是的。所以你會記得 10 億美元這個數字。我的意思是，正如我們所提到的，我們覺得我們正朝著這個軌跡前進。在投資者日，我們表示已安裝基礎業務約占我們總收入的 25%。所以，我想，有了這些訊息，你就能算出成長率。這是一個絕對在成長的業務。我們的目標是使已安裝基礎業務本身的成長速度快於已安裝基礎的成長率。現在，我們再次提供信息，今年安裝的基數從大約 50,000 個腔室增長到去年年底的 56,000 個腔室。因此也許透過這些，你可以對數字進行三角測量。我們也許可以幫您完成這件事並回覆您。

Yes. Patrick, how I think about it and Tim described it the way I think about it, which is, at a normalized rate, it's been about 25% of the company's business. If you recall back at the Investor Day, Tim described 3 growth vectors, each about the same size. So if you think about the installed base, it's 1/3 of the growth and normalized at 25% of the business. So you can triangulate that, that way relative to the growth of it. It will grow faster than the installed base for sure. Now, in the year like 2019, if it shapes up the way perhaps it's going to with WFE volume as much, it will be more than 25% obviously.

是的。派崔克，我和提姆都這麼認為，以正常速度來看，這大約佔了公司業務的 25%。如果您還記得投資者日，Tim描述了 3 個成長向量，每個向量的大小大致相同。因此，如果您考慮安裝基數，它是成長的 1/3，並且正常化為業務的 25%。因此，您可以用三角測量的方式，相對於它的增長。它的成長速度肯定會比安裝基數更快。現在，在 2019 年這樣的年份，如果情況順利的話，WFE 的數量可能會增加，顯然會超過 25%。

Again, I think one important point since we're talking about installed base business. As I just mentioned, I think it can sometimes get lost in terms of how we are driving this business faster than the installed base itself is growing and it all comes down to investing in the creation of new products and services. Things that help the customer relocate tools for new applications, extend the technology for those tool sets to new applications. Higher productivity, higher throughput from those assets. And as we've seen in many ways, the lagging node business gets stronger and more heavily utilized. We find a lot of installed base business for tools that had been around and out in the field for quite a number of years where there's a lot of interest in getting new products and services for that fleet. So it's a pretty attractive business.

再次，我認為，既然我們在談論已安裝基礎業務，那麼就有一個重點。正如我剛才提到的，我認為有時我們可能會忽略我們如何以比安裝基數本身成長更快的速度推動這項業務，而這一切都歸結於對新產品和服務的投資。幫助客戶為新應用重新定位工具，將這些工具集的技術擴展到新應用。這些資產的生產力更高，產量更高。正如我們在很多方面看到的那樣，滯後節點業務變得更強大並且利用率更高。我們發現許多已在該領域使用多年的工具的安裝基礎業務，並且人們對為該領域提供新產品和服務非常感興趣。所以這是一項非常有吸引力的業務。

Great. That's very helpful.

偉大的。這非常有幫助。

Go ahead. You can do one more if you got one, Patrick.

前進。如果你有的話，你可以再做一個，派崔克。

Yes. Real quick on the DRAM, on the memory side of things. We know that capital intensity trends increase on the 3D NAND side of things with the layer count. How do you see the transition for etch and deposition as you go from 1x to 1y and eventually to 1z?

是的。在 DRAM 上，在記憶體方面，速度非常快。我們知道，隨著層數的增加，3D NAND 方面的資本密集度趨勢會增加。從 1x 到 1y 並最終到 1z，您如何看待蝕刻和沈積的轉變？

Our SAM continues to grow as we step through that. That's all about self-aligned patterning and that is very etch and deposition SAM, Patrick.

隨著我們逐步實現這一目標，我們的 SAM 將繼續成長。這就是關於自對準圖案以及蝕刻和沈積 SAM 的全部內容，帕特里克。

Yes. And actually, these technology nodes also create new opportunities for films. I mean, so I spoke a little bit about our effort in atomic layer deposition. As you step from 1x to 1y to 1z, there are new applications being created for atomic layer deposition, for instance, that wouldn't have existed in prior nodes. And so we're looking at it both from growth in our existing applications as well as our ability to win new ones also.

是的。而實際上，這些技術節點也為電影創造了新的機會。我的意思是，我稍微談了一下我們在原子層沉積上的努力。例如，當你從 1x 到 1y 再到 1z 時，就會出現原子層沉積等新的應用，而這些應用在以前的節點中是不存在的。因此，我們既從現有應用程式的成長角度，也從贏得新應用程式的能力角度來看待這個問題。

We'll now hear from Atif Malik with Citi.

我們現在來聽聽花旗銀行的阿蒂夫馬利克 (Atif Malik) 的發言。

First, quick clarification. On the last earnings call, you guys expected DRAM up in first half this year versus second half last year and NAND down. Is it fair to say that you're seeing both the DRAM and NAND down in first half of this year versus second half last year?

首先，快速澄清一下。在上次收益電話會議上，你們預計今年上半年 DRAM 將會上漲，而去年下半年 NAND 將會下降。您是否認為今年上半年 DRAM 和 NAND 的價格與去年下半年相比均有所下降？

Yes. We're not going to provide segment level color on the quarterly guide except we gave a little color on how we see WFE setting up in that you can interpret it however you like, which is foundry logic is the first half-weighted. Memory, probably a little bit stronger than the second half.

是的。我們不會在季度指南中提供細分級別的顏色，但我們對 WFE 的設置給出了一些說明，您可以按照自己喜歡的方式進行解釋，即代工邏輯是第一個半加權。記憶力，大概比後半段強一點。

Got it. And then can you just talk about what you're seeing with respect to domestic spending in China? If I recall correctly, you have talked about China domestic was $5 billion in spending last year. What -- could it be in the $42 billion to $43 billion WFE this year?

知道了。那麼，您能否談談您對中國國內消費的看法？如果我沒記錯的話，您談到去年中國國內的支出為 50 億美元。今年的 420 億至 430 億美元的 WFE 會是什麼呢？

Yes. Actually, we did say that we thought 2018 was going to come in at about a $5 billion range. I think when all is said and done, it may have come in a little bit lower than that, but pretty close. We actually see 2019 shaping up to be a bit stronger. And if we look actually at the SAM and share position that we hold where the money would be spent this year, Lam's China domestic business should be up.

是的。實際上，我們確實說過，我們認為 2018 年的規模將達到 50 億美元左右。我認為，總的來說，這個數字可能會比這個數字略低一些，但也相當接近了。事實上，我們預期 2019 年情勢會更加強勁。如果我們實際看一下我們持有的 SAM 和股份狀況，看看今年資金的用途，Lam 的中國國內業務應該會上升。

Tom Diffely with D. A. Davidson & Co. has our next question.

D. A. Davidson & Co. 的湯姆·迪菲利這是我們下一個問題。

Yes. Maybe just a quick end market question. After 3 or 4 quarters of the price declines in the NAND market, are you seeing evidence of elasticity of demand that we've been talking about for a couple of years?

是的。也許只是一個快速的終端市場問題。在 NAND 市場價格下跌 3 或 4 個季度之後，您是否看到了我們幾年來一直在談論的需求彈性的證據？

Yes. I had a very small comment to my opening remarks about the fact that we believe we have seen some demand elasticity at the end of last year. And it was primarily driven by an uptick that we've seen in the adoption rate of SSDs into the client. And there was some data that showed that the percentage of laptops or client devices with SSD in the lower price ranges had a material uptick. And so it's just one data point, but we do think that as prices have come down, we're starting to see increased demand.

是的。我在開場白中只簡單評論了一點，即我們認為去年年底我們已經看到了一些需求彈性。這主要是由於我們看到客戶端採用 SSD 的比例上升所致。有數據顯示，在較低價格範圍內，配備 SSD 的筆記型電腦或客戶端設備的比例有實質的上升。這只是一個數據點，但我們確實認為，隨著價格下降，我們開始看到需求增加。

Okay. And then given that when you look at kind of the long-term view, the next 3 to 5 years, do you still -- or do you view NAND market as the real big opportunity for you versus the DRAM market, knowing that both are strong?

好的。然後考慮到當您從長遠角度看未來 3 到 5 年時，您是否仍然 - 或者您是否認為 NAND 市場相對於 DRAM 市場而言是真正的巨大機遇，因為兩者都很強大？

For us, without a doubt. Our SAM position, if you think maybe just the world that we've gone through, the transition from 2D to 3D NAND, we had a very meaningful increase in the intensity of etch and deposition in that space. And when you think about also end demand, we see NAND outpacing all other markets. And so that's why when I talk about our focus on applications that we want to hold continuously in that critical space in the NAND area. Now, of course, we want to do well in all markets, but NAND is our biggest opportunity going forward and in the long term.

對我們來說，毫無疑問。我們的 SAM 位置，如果您想想也許只是我們經歷的世界，從 2D 到 3D NAND 的轉變，我們在該領域的蝕刻和沈積強度有了非常有意義的改善。當您考慮最終需求時，我們會發現 NAND 超過了所有其他市場。這就是為什麼當我談到我們對應用程式的關注時，我們希望在 NAND 領域的關鍵空間中持續保持這種關注。現在，我們當然希望在所有市場都取得好成績，但 NAND 是我們未來和長期的最大機會。

Yes. Just to add on for me, Tom, independent of where things are at in 2019, I'm extraordinarily optimistic on the opportunity for both NAND as well as DRAM going forward. Again, Tim alluded to the data economy. We talked about that extensively at the Investor Day. All of that stuff is still completely intact. It doesn't mean it will happen every single year. It won't, but data is exploding in society. It is not useful unless you can store it and you need a low latency memory to do anything in compute architectures. Memory is critically enabling for all of that and none of that has changed.

是的。湯姆，我要補充一點，無論 2019 年的情況如何，我對 NAND 和 DRAM 未來的發展機會都非常樂觀。提姆再次提到了數據經濟。我們在投資者日上詳細討論了這個問題。所有這些東西都還完好無損。這並不意味著它每年都會發生。不會，但是數據在社會上正在爆炸式增長。除非您可以儲存它，否則它是沒用的，並且您需要低延遲記憶體來在計算架構中執行任何操作。記憶對於所有這一切至關重要，而且這一切都沒有改變。

Our next question comes from Quinn Bolton with Needham & Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Needham & Company 的 Quinn Bolton。

Just want to come back in the prepared comments. You mentioned the share gains in high aspect ratio etch, 3D NAND deposition and ALD wins in both NAND and DRAM. Can those share gains help offset some of the SAM underperformance you see in 2019? Or do you really think that we need to see the memory markets recovering before you see the full benefit of those share gains?

只是想在準備好的評論中回來。您提到了高深寬比蝕刻、3D NAND 沉積以及 ALD 在 NAND 和 DRAM 領域的份額增長。這些份額增長能否幫助抵消您在 2019 年看到的部分 SAM 表現不佳的影響？或者您真的認為我們需要看到記憶體市場復甦，您才能看到這些份額成長的全部好處？

Well, the simple answer is no, they cannot offset the decline that we see this year. But the other aspect there is one of timing. Typically, the types of applications and wins I was speaking to, we focus on critical application wins. Usually, one to 2 nodes before that, node ever ends up ramping. And so in a majority of those cases, those will be entering production sometime next year or the following year. And that's why the start of like -- those are the applications, once you win it, you kind of know that your business is pretty well locked in for the foreseeable future.

嗯，簡單的答案是否定的，它們無法抵消我們今年看到的下滑。但另一方面是時機問題。通常，我談論的應用程式和勝利類型，我們關注的是關鍵的應用程式勝利。通常，在此之前的 1 到 2 個節點，節點就會結束爬升。因此，在大多數情況下，這些產品將於明年或後年某個時候投入生產。這就是為什麼一開始——這些都是應用程序，一旦你贏了，你就知道你的業務在可預見的未來會被很好地鎖定。

And just a quick follow-up. On the China domestic, is that fairly well-balanced between memory and foundry logic or does one segment lead the other in 2019?

這只是一次快速的跟進。在中國國內，2019 年記憶體和代工邏輯之間是否相當平衡，還是其中一個部分領先另一個部分？

It's fairly well-balanced, Quinn. I mean, memory is probably somewhat stronger than foundry and logic, but there's a broad base set of customers that are spending. It's not just one or 2.

它相當均衡，奎因。我的意思是，記憶體可能比代工和邏輯更強大，但有廣泛的客戶群在花錢。不只是一兩個。

Sidney Ho with Deutsche Bank has our next question.

德意志銀行的 Sidney Ho 向我們提出了下一個問題。

Starting off with a clarification. You said revenue will be first half-weighted in 2019. Is that an expectation for your revenue or is it for the industry?

首先澄清一下。您說收入將在 2019 年首先加權一半。這是對您的收入的預期，還是對整個行業的預期？

No. It was a statement, Sidney, around WFE. I didn't say anything relative to Lam's revenue. It was a statement on WFE.

不。這是一份有關 WFE 的聲明，西德尼。我沒有說任何與林的收入有關的事。這是關於 WFE 的聲明。

Okay. Great. And then my question is it looks like from 3 months ago to now, the change is primarily coming from the DRAM side, CapEx slowing down. Would you say the NAND side is also incrementally weaker? Or do you think this stability -- there's more stability there and then CapEx could start coming earlier?

好的。偉大的。我的問題是，從 3 個月前到現在，變化主要來自 DRAM 方面，資本支出正在放緩。您是否認為 NAND 方面也逐漸變弱了？或者您認為這種穩定性——那裡更加穩定，然後資本支出可以更早開始？

Well, we haven't so far, Sidney, in the past, given you any color on the full year of 2019. It's the first time we're making statements on the full year. So I'm not sure I can even say anything about trajectory of what we thought before because we haven't done all the full analytic work that we've now done on 2019.

嗯，西德尼，到目前為止，我們還沒有給你任何 2019 年全年的資訊。這是我們第一次對全年業績做出聲明。因此，我不確定我是否可以對我們之前所想的軌跡發表任何評論，因為我們還沒有完成現在對 2019 年所做的所有分析工作。

All right. Maybe just a housekeeping one. Operating expenses, obviously much lower than what you guided for the December quarter. Understanding March is an extra week, should we think about June quarter to kind of go back to the December level or is it just -- it's something higher than that?

好的。也許只是一個家事。營運費用顯然比您預測的 12 月季度的營運費用低得多。了解到三月是額外的一周，我們是否應該考慮將六月份的季度恢復到十二月份的水平，或者只是 - 比那更高一些？

Yes. I'm not going to guide it beyond the current quarter, Sidney. Everything else equal, flattish to maybe slightly down if you just take the one week out, but we'll give you the hard guidance when we get to earnings in the quarter.

是的。西德尼，我不會對本季之後的情況做出指導。在其他所有條件相同的情況下，如果僅考慮一周時間，業績可能會持平甚至略有下降，但當我們獲得本季度收益時，我們會為您提供確切的指導。

We'll now hear from Mitch Steves with RBC Capital Markets.

我們現在來聽聽加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Mitch Steves 的發言。

I just had one on kind of your commentary on the back half in memory dynamics. So, I guess, what is the reason why there wouldn't be a significant increase in investment when you move to 96 layer technology? Is that because the majority of the WFE spend or the increase in memory spend is because of the planar NAND transition or 3D NAND transition? Or is it because there's something special about 96 that makes it a lower investment cycle?

我剛剛對你關於記憶動態後半部分的評論有了一些了解。那麼，我猜想，當轉向 96 層技術時，投資不會大幅增加的原因是什麼？這是因為大部分 WFE 支出或記憶體支出的增加是因為平面 NAND 轉換或 3D NAND 轉換嗎？還是因為 96 有一些特殊之處，使得它的投資週期更短？

No. There's nothing special about 96. What we see happening, Mitch, primarily is node conversions in both DRAM as well as 3D NAND. And so that's the way to be thinking about it. It's a heavy focus of spending on node conversions, which -- that's a very cost-effective way for our customers to invest because they just need to upgrade essentially etch and deposition equipment or add to the process flow.

不。96 沒什麼特別的。米奇，我們看到的情況主要是 DRAM 和 3D NAND 中的節點轉換。這就是思考這個問題的方式。我們的重點是節點轉換方面的支出，這對我們的客戶來說是一種非常經濟有效的投資方式，因為他們只需要升級蝕刻和沈積設備或增加製程。

I don't know, Tim. Would you add anything?

我不知道，提姆。您想補充些什麼嗎？

No, I think that's fair. Obviously, it's heavily driven by the ratio of node conversions to greenfield adds. On a greenfield basis, last year, I showed a chart that described our increase in opportunity at 96-layer. And fundamentally, on a greenfield basis, it's significantly higher as you go to 96. So it's a dynamic of conversion versus greenfield adds that's Doug's speaking to.

不，我認為這很公平。顯然，這在很大程度上取決於節點轉換與綠地新增的比例。在綠地基礎上，去年，我展示了一張圖表，描述了我們在第 96 層的機會的增長。從根本上來說，在綠地基礎上，當你達到 96 時，它會顯著更高。因此，Doug 所說的是轉換與綠地增加之間的動態關係。

Our final question will come from Vijay Rakesh with Mizuho Bank.

我們的最後一個問題來自瑞穗銀行的 Vijay Rakesh。

Yes. Just on your 2019, just wondering, when you look at 96-layer 3D NAND, what do you -- how do you see capital intensity at 64 versus 96?

是的。就在 2019 年，我只是想知道，當您查看 96 層 3D NAND 時，您如何看待 64 層與 96 層之間的資本密集度？

If you do a greenfield to greenfield wafer, capital intensity goes up. You've got a longer process flow. You have more tools in the process flow. It goes up. I don't think we've quantified it. The good part for our business is when you do that conversion, all you're really adding is etch and deposition equipment. You're making the stack bigger and the etch becomes a little bit more challenging to do and so it takes longer.

如果你進行綠地到綠地晶圓的生產，資本密集度就會上升。您的流程更長。您在流程中擁有更多工具。它上升了。我認為我們還沒有量化它。對我們的業務來說，好的部分是當你進行這種轉換時，你真正添加的只是蝕刻和沈積設備。你把堆疊做得更大了，蝕刻就變得更具挑戰性，因此需要更長的時間。

Got it. And just as you talked about a little bit more softness in memory spending through the year, have you seen -- are you seeing any push out on either the 96-layer 3D NAND or the 1y transition in the DRAM side?

知道了。正如您所說的那樣，今年內存支出略有疲軟，您是否看到 - 您是否看到 96 層 3D NAND 或 DRAM 方面的 1y 轉型有任何推動力？

From a timing standpoint, no. I mean, we always had expected 2019 would be a 1y investment year in DRAM with the beginning of 1z, and that the investments in NAND would be on 96-layer devices. And that's totally what we're seeing. And again, it's primarily focused on conversions right now.

從時間角度來看，不是。我的意思是，我們一直預計 2019 年將是 DRAM 的 1y 投資年，以 1z 為開端，而 NAND 的投資將集中在 96 層設備上。這正是我們所看到的。再次強調，它現在主要關注的是轉換。

Okay. So this concludes our conference call for this quarter. Thank you for joining us.

好的。本季的電話會議到此結束。感謝您加入我們。

That will conclude today's conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。