科林研發 (LRCX) 2019 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the June 2019 quarter financial call for Lam Research. Today's conference is being recorded. At this time, I'd like to turn the conference over to Ms. Tina Correia, Corporate Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead, ma'am.

大家好，歡迎參加 Lam Research 2019 年 6 月季度財務電話會議。今天的會議正在錄影。此時，我謹將會議交給投資人關係公司副總裁蒂娜‧科雷亞女士。請便，女士。

Great. Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to the Lam Research quarterly earnings conference call. With me today are Tim Archer, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Doug Bettinger, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

偉大的。謝謝大家，大家下午好。歡迎參加Lam Research季度財報電話會議。今天陪同我出席的有總裁兼執行長提姆·阿徹，以及執行副總裁兼財務長道格·貝廷格。

During today's call, we will share our overview on the business environment and review our financial results for the June 2019 quarter and our outlook for the September 2019 quarter. The press release detailing our financial results was distributed a little after 1:00 p.m. Pacific Time this afternoon. The release can also be found on the Investor Relations section of the company's website, along with the presentation slides that accompany today's call.

在今天的電話會議上，我們將分享我們對商業環境的概述，並回顧我們 2019 年 6 月季度的財務業績以及我們對 2019 年 9 月季度的展望。詳細介紹我們財務表現的新聞稿已於下午 1 點剛過發布。太平洋時間今天下午。新聞稿也可在公司網站的投資者關係部分找到，同時還可以找到今天電話會議的簡報。

Today's presentation and Q&A includes forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties reflected in the risk factors disclosures of our SEC public filings. Please see accompanying slides in the presentation for additional information.

今天的演示和問答環節包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到風險和不確定性的影響，這些風險和不確定性已反映在我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的公開文件中的風險因素披露部分。更多資訊請參閱簡報中的配套幻燈片。

Today's discussion of our financial results will be presented on a non-GAAP financial basis unless otherwise specified. A detailed reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP results can be found in today's earnings press release. This call is scheduled to last until 3:00 p.m. Pacific Time. A replay of this call will be available later this afternoon on our website.

除非另有說明，我們今天對財務表現的討論將以非GAAP財務報表為基礎。今天的盈利新聞稿中提供了 GAAP 和非 GAAP 結果之間的詳細調整表。本次通話預計持續到下午3點。太平洋時間。今天下午晚些時候，您可以在我們的網站上收聽本次電話會議的錄音。

With that, let me hand the call over to Tim.

那麼，我把電話交給蒂姆吧。

Thanks, Tina, and good afternoon to everyone on the call. In the June quarter, Lam delivered strong results. Revenues, gross margin and operating margin exceeded the midpoint of the guidance we've provided on our last earnings call, while EPS exceeded the high end of the guidance. Our ability to deliver these results was made possible by the support of our customers, our employees and our partners, and I would like to thank them for their ongoing commitment to Lam's success.

謝謝蒂娜，也祝所有參加電話會議的朋友們都下午好。林氏在六月的季度中取得了強勁的業績。營收、毛利率和營業利潤率都超過了我們在上次財報電話會議上給出的預期中位數，而每股收益則超過了預期上限。我們能夠取得這些成果，離不開客戶、員工和合作夥伴的支持，我謹感謝他們對林氏公司成功的持續貢獻。

I would like to start by offering some perspective on Lam given the uncertainties surrounding trade and other influences on the market environment. Through the first half of calendar 2019, we have executed at a high level by focusing on what is in our control. And despite a difficult memory market, we have delivered on or exceeded our commitments.

鑑於貿易和其他市場環境因素帶來的不確定性，我想先就林氏的觀點提供一些看法。2019 年上半年，我們專注於自己能夠控制的事情，並且取得了很高的執行力。儘管記憶體市場情況嚴峻，但我們仍履行或超額完成了我們的承諾。

As you will hear from Doug later, we generated another $880 million in cash from operations in the most recent quarter. At the same time, we have continued to prioritize investment in innovation and product differentiation, shifting a higher percentage of our total OpEx to R&D than in any prior quarter in our history. We remain committed to our long-term growth vectors, observed available market expansion, market share gains and increased revenue from our installed base. Specific proof points are emerging that validate our progress in each of these areas, and I will touch on them later in my remarks.

稍後您將從道格那裡聽到，我們在最近一個季度透過營運又獲得了 8.8 億美元的現金。同時，我們繼續優先投資於創新和產品差異化，將總營運支出中更高比例的資金投入研發，這比我們歷史上任何一個季度都要多。我們將繼續致力於長期成長策略，觀察市場擴張、市場佔有率提升以及現有客戶群帶來的收入成長。在這些領域的進展已逐漸顯現，具體的證據也印證了這一點，我將在稍後的演講中詳細介紹。

But first, let me update our industry outlook. Our view on total WFE remains directionally unchanged, with calendar year 2019 down mid- to high teens percent from 2018. However, since our last earnings call, Memory spending is incrementally lower, while Foundry spending is tracking higher, we believe, due in part, to acceleration in 5G development, leading to strong demand for 7-nanometer and 5-nanometer products. We now view Foundry, Logic WFE to be second half-weighted versus our prior baseline of first half-weighted for calendar 2019.

但首先，讓我來更新一下我們對產業的展望。我們對總 WFE 的看法仍然保持不變，2019 年曆年將比 2018 年下降 15% 到 10% 以上。然而，自我們上次財報電話會議以來，記憶體支出略有下降，而晶圓代工支出則呈上升趨勢，我們認為，部分原因是 5G 開發加速，導致對 7 奈米和 5 奈米產品的需求強勁。我們現在認為 Foundry、Logic WFE 的權重應為 2019 年下半年，而我們先前的基準是 2019 年上半年的權重。

Within Memory, customers have continued to take meaningful actions to restore supply and demand balance, reducing investment and lowering utilization levels for both NAND and DRAM as we progressed through the June quarter. As a result, we see year-over-year bit supply growth for both NAND and DRAM continuing to decline with bit supply growth rates exiting the year well below the long-term demand trend lines.

在記憶體領域，隨著我們進入六月的季度，客戶繼續採取有意義的措施來恢復供需平衡，減少投資並降低 NAND 和 DRAM 的使用率。因此，我們看到 NAND 和 DRAM 的年同比位供應成長持續下降，年底的位元供應成長率遠低於長期需求趨勢線。

On the demand side, we are encouraged by early signs that NAND price declines are leading to an acceleration of content growth in devices. For example, SSD penetration in PCs is expected to reach nearly 60% by the end of 2019. But more importantly, the average density per drive is also growing. The predominant SSD configurations in the PC market are now 256 gigabyte and 512 gigabyte versus 128 and 256 a year ago.

在需求方面，我們受到早期跡象的鼓舞，這些跡象表明 NAND 價格的下降正在加速設備中內容的成長。例如，預計到 2019 年底，固態硬碟在個人電腦中的普及率將達到近 60%。但更重要的是，每個硬碟的平均密度也在成長。目前PC市場上主流的固態硬碟配置是256GB和512GB，而一年前則是128GB和256GB。

The demand impact is amplified as both units and content per unit grow together. Similarly, we have seen acceleration in bit content growth for NAND and mobile devices. This is evident not only in the premium phone segment, but also in the mid-tier and lower-end phones, where 128 gigabytes offerings are seeing the fastest growth versus 64 gigabyte models a year ago.

隨著銷售量和單位內容量的同步成長，需求的影響被放大。同樣，我們也看到了 NAND 快閃記憶體和行動裝置中比特含量成長的加速。這一點不僅在高階手機領域很明顯，在中低階手機領域也很明顯，其中 128 GB 的機型成長速度最快，而一年前 64 GB 的機型成長速度最快。

We believe the combination of factors influencing supply and demand creates a favorable setup for Memory as we enter 2020. Our actions are focused on ensuring Lam is in the best possible position to benefit from the anticipated recovery in Memory spending. This focus is contributing to gains in both served market and market share, as evidenced by wins this quarter across various applications as well as in road maps for emerging 3D architectures.

我們認為，影響供給與需求的各種因素共同作用，為 2020 年記憶體市場創造了有利的局面。我們的行動重點是確保 Lam 處於最佳位置，以從預期的記憶體支出復甦中受益。這種專注有助於擴大服務市場和市場份額，本季在各種應用領域的成功以及新興 3D 架構的路線圖都證明了這一點。

In NAND, we are working closely with customers to develop differentiated solutions for potential limiters to 3D scaling. An excellent example is the wafer processing challenge created by stress-induced wafer bow as the number of 3D NAND layer scales to 100 and beyond. Given Lam's leadership position in critical 3D NAND etch and deposition applications, we are best positioned to address this problem. The new Lam tool, which deposits a counter-stress film on the backside of the 3D NAND wafer, using an innovative single-step process, has been introduced to leading-edge customers with multiple repeat orders received.

在 NAND 領域，我們正與客戶緊密合作，為 3D 擴展的潛在限制因素開發差異化解決方案。一個很好的例子是，隨著 3D NAND 層數增加到 100 層及以上，應力引起的晶圓彎曲給晶圓加工帶來了挑戰。鑑於 Lam 在關鍵的 3D NAND 蝕刻和沈積應用領域的領先地位，我們最有能力解決這個問題。新型 Lam 工具採用創新的一步式工藝，在 3D NAND 晶圓背面沉積反應力薄膜，已向領先客戶推出，並收到多筆重複訂單。

Importantly, the learning we gain through our investments to scale 3D NAND will be broadly applicable as new 3D architectures emerge in other segments. For example, we believe Lam's leadership in enabling 3D scaling will become increasingly valuable as logic devices migrate to a 3D gate all around structure in 3-nanometer, as new Memory such as PC RAM scale vertically through a cost and bit density improvement and as 3D heterogeneous integration is adopted as a preferred packaging option for high-performance system solutions.

重要的是，我們透過投資擴大 3D NAND 規模所獲得的經驗，將在其他領域出現新的 3D 架構時具有廣泛的適用性。例如，我們相信，隨著邏輯元件向 3 奈米的 3D 全方位閘極結構遷移，隨著 PC RAM 等新型記憶體透過成本和位元密度的提高實現垂直擴展，以及隨著 3D 異構整合被採用為高性能係統解決方案的首選封裝選項，Lam 在實現 3D 縮放方面的領導地位將變得越來越有價值。

For 3D heterogeneous integration, several leading companies across Foundry and Logic have announced architectures to connect different IP blocks using high-density interconnects with through-silicon vias. Lam's SABRE 3D electroplating and Syndion etch tools offer best-in-class technology, backed by years of high-volume production leadership in the TSV market.

對於 3D 異構集成，晶圓代工和邏輯電路領域的幾家領先公司已經宣布了使用高密度互連和矽通孔連接不同 IP 模組的架構。Lam 的 SABRE 3D 電鍍和 Syndion 蝕刻工具提供一流的技術，並擁有多年在 TSV 市場大批量生產的領先地位。

During the quarter, we secured an important win at a leading logic customer for our SABRE 3D electroplating system for 3D chip stacking applications. This is a significant validation of Lam's ability to leverage its industry-leading position in 3D scaling to new and emerging manufacturing inflections. We are also seeing successes from our customer-focused investments in DRAM. We are collaborating with customers on critical new technologies required to scale to the 1Z and 1A nodes. For instance, as DRAM shrinks, devices shrink to 1Z and beyond, the performance impact of resistance capacity delays becomes a challenge that must be addressed. This quarter, we won critical spacer applications at multiple leading DRAM manufacturers for the 1Z node due to our ability to deposit highly conformal low-k films that help reduce RC delay.

本季度，我們為一家領先的邏輯電路客戶贏得了一項重要訂單，該訂單涉及我們的 SABRE 3D 電鍍系統，該系統適用於 3D 晶片堆疊應用。這有力地證明了 Lam 公司有能力利用其在 3D 列印領域的行業領先地位，以應對新興的製造業變革。我們也看到，我們在DRAM領域以客戶為中心的投資也取得了成功。我們正在與客戶合作，開發擴展到 1Z 和 1A 節點所需的關鍵新技術。例如，隨著 DRAM 尺寸縮小，裝置尺寸縮小到 1Z 及更小，電阻容量延遲對效能的影響成為必須解決的挑戰。本季度，由於我們能夠沉積高度共形的低介電常數薄膜，從而有助於減少 RC 延遲，因此我們在多家領先的 DRAM 製造商的 1Z 節點中贏得了關鍵的間隔層應用。

In addition to our progress on critical applications, you might recall that I have spoken previously about the NAND semi-critical process space and is an area of increased focus for Lam as we drive to gain market share. In the most recent quarter, we began to deliver on this opportunity with significant conductor etch wins at multiple NAND customers for mask open applications. Specifically, Lam's ability to create a highly productive single-step etch process to replace our competitor's multiple step approach allowed us to differentiate on system throughput, a key decision factor in the semi-critical space. Another example is seen in dielectric etch, where we recorded a key win for a semi-critical metal contact application at a leading memory maker. As 3D NAND scales, the peripheral context becomes deeper, and aspect ratios increase. Our dielectric etch system demonstrated faster etch rates and superior profile control, leading to greater capital productivity and less frequent maintenance.

除了我們在關鍵應用領域的進展之外，您可能還記得我之前談到過 NAND 半關鍵工藝領域，這也是 Lam 為爭取市場份額而日益關注的領域。在最近一個季度，我們開始掌握這一機遇，在多個 NAND 客戶中贏得了大量用於掩模開放應用的導體蝕刻訂單。具體來說，Lam 能夠創造一種高效的單步蝕刻製程來取代競爭對手的多步驟方法，這使我們能夠在系統吞吐量方面脫穎而出，而係統吞吐量是半關鍵領域的一個重要決策因素。另一個例子是介質蝕刻，我們為領先的記憶體製造商贏得了半關鍵金屬接點應用的關鍵訂單。隨著 3D NAND 尺寸的縮小，外圍環境變得更加複雜，縱橫比也隨之增大。我們的介質蝕刻系統展現出更快的蝕刻速度和更優異的輪廓控制，從而提高了資本生產力並減少了維護頻率。

For our Customer Support Business Group, we continue to see 2019 as another year of solid revenue growth despite lower WFE spending. In the June quarter, we achieved a second consecutive quarterly record for revenue from our Reliant Systems business as customers invest to address robust nonleading edge demand from end markets such as IoT, automotive and powered devices.

對於我們的客戶支援業務集團而言，儘管 WFE 支出有所下降，但我們仍然認為 2019 年將是營收穩定成長的另一年。在 6 月的季度中，我們的 Reliant Systems 業務收入連續第二個季度創下紀錄，因為客戶正在投資以滿足來自物聯網、汽車和電動設備等終端市場的強勁的非領先技術需求。

The combination of our focus on leading edge technologies and installed base performance is being recognized by our customers. In the most recent quarter, a top customer completed their annual supplier evaluation process, ranking us as their #1 supplier, as measured by a broad set of installed base performance, cost reduction and R&D engagement metrics. With this newest rating, we are now in the #1 position in more than half of our top customers.

我們對尖端技術和現有設備性能的重視，正得到客戶的認可。在最近一個季度，一位重要客戶完成了年度供應商評估流程，根據一系列廣泛的安裝基礎效能、成本降低和研發參與指標，將我們評為排名第一的供應商。憑藉這項最新評級，我們在超過一半的頂級客戶中排名第一。

To wrap up, the near-term environment remains challenging. But the long-term growth opportunity for both our industry and for Lam is compelling. We are focused on executing to our commitments and extending the differentiation of our product and services portfolio. I believe that our continued prioritization of customer-focused investment would yield lasting benefits. And as Memory spending returns to normalized levels and non-Memory technologies increasingly rely on 3D scaling for performance and cost improvement, Lam will be in an excellent position to outperform.

總而言之，近期環境依然充滿挑戰。但對於我們行業和林氏公司而言，長期的成長機會是巨大的。我們專注於履行承諾，並不斷擴大我們產品和服務組合的差異化優勢。我相信，我們繼續優先考慮以客戶為中心的投資將會帶來持久的效益。隨著記憶體支出恢復正常水平，非記憶體技術越來越依賴 3D 擴充來提高效能和降低成本，Lam 將處於一個極佳的領先地位。

Now I'd like to turn the call over to Doug.

現在我想把電話交給道格。

Excellent. Thank you, Tim. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today, during what I know is a busy earnings season. Lam executed well in the June quarter with our results exceeding the midpoint of guidance for all financial metrics. Earnings per share exceeded the high end of the guidance range we provided due to stronger gross margin as well as proactive management of operating expenses.

出色的。謝謝你，提姆。各位下午好，感謝各位在今天這個繁忙的財報季抽出時間參加我們的節目。Lam在6月份的季度表現出色，所有財務指標的業績均超過了預期中位數。由於毛利率走強以及對營運費用的積極管理，每股收益超過了我們先前給出的預期範圍上限。

Our EPS performance is, I believe, are testament to our continual focus on delivering on our ongoing commitments. As Tim noted, our expectation is that 2019 WFE will be down from calendar year 2018 in the mid-to high teens percentage level. Since our last call, we're seeing some upside strength in Foundry, which was partially offset by a reduction in Memory spending.

我認為，我們的每股盈餘表現證明了我們始終專注於履行我們的各項承諾。正如蒂姆所指出的那樣，我們預計 2019 年 WFE 將比 2018 年下降 15% 到 10% 的百分比。自從上次通話以來，我們看到 Foundry 業務出現了一些上漲勢頭，但部分被 Memory 業務支出的減少所抵消。

From a segment perspective, our systems revenue for the combined Memory segment increased slightly to 64% of total system revenue from 61% in the March quarter. We had an increase from the March quarter in the nonvolatile memory segment from 40% to 46%, while DRAM decreased to 18% from 21%. Memory revenue continues to be mainly targeted towards conversion-related investments.

從業務板塊來看，合併後的記憶體業務板塊的系統收入佔總系統收入的比例從 3 月季度的 61% 略微上升至 64%。與三月的季度相比，非揮發性記憶體領域的比例從 40% 成長到 46%，而 DRAM 的比例則從 21% 下降到 18%。記憶體收入仍然主要用於與轉換相關的投資。

In DRAM spending, it's targeted towards 1Y, and some initial 1Z investment. In NAND, it's primarily convergence to 9x layer devices. Additionally, we are seeing initial investment on 128-layer structures. We're continuing to see healthy spending in the Foundry segment which came in at 23% of our system revenue for the [June quarter] (added by company after the call). And as Tim mentioned, this is heavily focused on the 5- and 7-nanometer nodes. This was slightly down from 27% last quarter, although still quite strong.

在DRAM支出方面，目標是1Y，以及一些初始的1Z投資。在 NAND 領域，主要趨勢是向 9 層裝置的融合。此外，我們看到對 128 層結構的初步投資。我們看到鑄造業務部門的支出持續保持健康成長，該部門的支出占我們[6 月季度]系統收入的 23%（公司在電話會議後補充）。正如 Tim 所提到的，這主要集中在 5 奈米和 7 奈米節點上。雖然比上季度的 27% 略有下降，但仍然相當強勁。

The Logic and Other segment was flat with the prior quarter level, contributing 13% of system revenue. We expect to see continued strength in the Foundry and Logic space throughout the remainder of the calendar year.

邏輯及其他業務部門與上一季持平，佔系統收入的 13%。我們預計在今年剩餘的時間裡，Foundry 和 Logic 領域將繼續保持強勁勢頭。

It's worth noting that from a geographic perspective, 33% of our revenue was generated in the China region. The majority of this came from indigenous Chinese customers. We expect to see higher than our average concentration level of revenue in the China region for the September quarter as well.

值得注意的是，從地理角度來看，我們 33% 的收入來自中國地區。其中大部分來自中國本土消費者。我們預計9月份季度中國地區的營收集中度也將高於平均水準。

We executed well on income statement performance for the June quarter. Revenues came in at $2.361 billion, which was above the midpoint of the June guidance. Gross margin for the quarter was 45.9%, which was better than expected, primarily due to customer mix and improved field resource utilization. Also, as we've stated in previous quarters, our actual gross margins are a function of several factors such as our raw business volumes, product mix and customer concentration, and you should expect to see some variability quarter-to-quarter.

我們在六月季度的損益表表現方面表現良好。營收達 23.61 億美元，高於 6 月預期值的中點。本季毛利率為 45.9%，優於預期，主要原因是客戶組合和現場資源利用率的提高。此外，正如我們在前幾個季度中所述，我們的實際毛利率取決於多種因素，例如我們的原始業務量、產品組合和客戶集中度，因此您應該預料到每個季度都會出現一些波動。

Operating expenses in the June quarter declined to $450 million from the prior quarter. We are proactively managing expenses with our lower revenue levels. We continue to invest in our strategic R&D programs, however, and remain focused on our commitment to technology and productivity leadership.

6 月季度的營運支出較上一季下降至 4.5 億美元。在收入水平較低的情況下，我們正在積極主動地控制支出。不過，我們將繼續投資於我們的策略研發項目，並繼續專注於我們對技術和生產力領先地位的承諾。

The percentage of R&D spend increased to approximately 66% in the June quarter, which was a high watermark. Operating income in the June quarter was $635 million and operating margin was 26.9%, at the high-end of our guidance range. The non-GAAP tax rate for the June quarter was approximately 11%, which is slightly lower than our long-term rate. For the remainder of the 2019 calendar year, we expect a tax rate in the low to mid-teens. And I'll just remind you, you should expect to see fluctuations in the rate from quarter-to-quarter.

6 月季度研發支出佔比增至約 66%，創歷史新高。6 月季度的營業收入為 6.35 億美元，營業利潤率為 26.9%，處於我們預期範圍的高端。6 月季度的非 GAAP 稅率約為 11%，略低於我們的長期稅率。預計 2019 年剩餘時間的稅率將在十幾到五幾個百分點之間。我還要提醒各位，利率每季都會有波動，這是正常現象。

For June, other income and expense was a total of approximately $6 million of expense. This total includes interest expense for a full quarter related to the issuance of a $2.5 billion senior notes that we completed in the March quarter. The quarterly interest expense is partially offset by the interest income earned on higher cash balances for the company. I'll just remind you that total interest expense on all tranches of our debt is approximately $45 million per quarter.

6 月份其他收入和支出總計約 600 萬美元。該總額包括與我們在 3 月季度完成的 25 億美元優先票據發行相關的整個季度的利息支出。公司較高的現金餘額所產生的利息收入可以部分抵銷季度利息支出。我只想提醒各位，我們所有債務的利息總支出約為每季 4,500 萬美元。

We continued to execute on our capital return program during the June quarter. For the quarter, we allocated $1.3 billion to capital return with $1.1 billion coming in share repurchases and $165 million in dividend payments. Our share repurchase activities were from a combination of open market as well as structured repurchases. The structured repurchase program that we entered into is intended to continue to execute throughout our December quarter. We've completed approximately $2 billion of the $5 billion authorization that we announced in the March quarter.

在六月的季度裡，我們繼續執行了資本回報計畫。本季度，我們分配了 13 億美元用於資本回報，其中 11 億美元用於股票回購，1.65 億美元用於支付股息。我們的股票回購活動包括公開市場回購和結構化回購兩種方式。我們制定的結構化回購計畫將在整個 12 月季度繼續執行。我們在三月宣布的 50 億美元授權計畫中，已經完成了約 20 億美元。

Over the past 1.5 years, we've utilized approximately $6 billion in buybacks and lowered diluted share count by roughly 15%. I believe this demonstrates our continued commitment to return meaningful cash to our shareholders.

在過去的1.5年裡，我們利用了約60億美元的股票回購，並將稀釋後的股票數量減少了約15%。我相信這體現了我們持續致力於為股東帶來可觀回報的承諾。

Earnings per share was $3.62, which was over our guidance range for the June quarter. This upside was driven primarily by better gross margin and lower-than-expected operating expenses. Diluted shares per EPS were approximately 154 million shares, which reflects a 5% decrease in quarterly diluted share count since the beginning of the calendar year. The share count includes a dilutive impact of approximately 5 million shares from the 2041 convertible notes. The dilution schedules for the remaining 2041 converts is available on our Investor Relations website for your reference.

每股收益為 3.62 美元，高於我們對 6 月季度的預期範圍。這一增長主要得益於更高的毛利率和低於預期的營運費用。每股攤薄股份數約為 1.54 億股，較年初季度攤薄股份數減少了 5%。股份數量包括 2041 年可轉換債券帶來的約 500 萬股的稀釋影響。剩餘 2041 年可轉換債券的稀釋計畫已發佈在我們的投資者關係網站上，供您參考。

Let me now move to the balance sheet. Our cash and short-term investments, including restricted cash, decreased in the June quarter to $5.7 billion from $6.4 billion in the March quarter. The decrease is mainly due to the capital return activities within the quarter, offset by strong cash generation from operations of $880 million. This is the second consecutive quarter where we had cash from operations in the $900 million range. DSO decreased by 5 days to 56 days. Our inventory balance decreased by $82 million. Inventory turns remained at industry-leading levels, coming in at 3.3x.

現在讓我來看資產負債表。我們的現金和短期投資（包括受限現金）在 6 月季度從 3 月季度的 64 億美元減少到 57 億美元。此下降主要是由於本季內的資本回報活動，但被8.8億美元的強勁經營現金流所抵銷。這是連續第二季我們的營運活動現金流達到 9 億美元左右。DSO 減少了 5 天，降至 56 天。我們的庫存餘額減少了8200萬美元。庫存週轉率維持在行業領先水平，達到 3.3 倍。

Company noncash expenses included approximately $45 million for equity comp, $47 million for depreciation and $18 million for amortization. Amortization was down from last quarter by 50% as a portion of the intangibles from the Novellus acquisition have now fully amortized. Capital expenditures were $66 million in the quarter, which was a slight decrease from the $76 million that we saw in March.

公司非現金支出包括約 4,500 萬美元的股權補償、4,700 萬美元的折舊和 1,800 萬美元的攤提。由於Novellus收購案的部分無形資產已完全攤銷，攤銷額較上一季下降了50%。本季資本支出為 6,600 萬美元，比 3 月的 7,600 萬美元略有下降。

The June quarter ended with approximately 10,700 regular full-time employees, which is down somewhat from the prior quarter. Additionally, I'd like to remind you that we used temporary labor as part of our operating model. We have reduced this temporary labor by almost 40%, or [700] (added by company after the call) head count in the last year. This flexibility is a critical part of our operating model, enabling us to deliver sustainable operating profits during a time of reduced revenue levels.

截至6月底，公司共有約10,700名正式全職員工，比上一季略有下降。此外，我想提醒各位，我們在營運模式中使用了臨時工。在過去一年中，我們減少了近 40% 的臨時工，即 700 人（該公司在通話後補充）。這種靈活性是我們營運模式的關鍵組成部分，使我們能夠在收入水平下降時期實現可持續的營運利潤。

So now looking ahead, I'd like to provide our non-GAAP guidance for the September 2019 quarter. We are expecting revenue of $2.150 billion, plus or minus $150 million; gross margin of 45%, plus or minus 1 percentage point; operating margin of 24.5%, plus or minus 1 percentage point; and finally, earnings per share of $3, plus or minus $0.20, based on a share count of approximately 150 million shares.

展望未來，我想提供我們 2019 年 9 月季度的非 GAAP 業績指引。我們預計營收為 21.5 億美元，上下浮動 1.5 億美元；毛利率為 45%，上下浮動 1 個百分點；營業利潤率為 24.5%，上下浮動 1 個百分點；最後，每股收益為 3 美元，上下浮動 0.20 美元，基於約 1.5 億股的股份數量。

Before closing my scripted remarks, I'd like to reiterate some of the tone that Tim shared in his script. We continue to not see a recovery in Memory spending, which is our strongest market for 2019. We do observe dynamics in those markets, however, that are positive signs. Some examples of these signs are demand elasticity, pricing trends and management of factory utilization to bring inventory down. We are tracking a double-digit number of new fabs ready to receive equipment shipments during this year and we see plans for that to happen again next year.

在結束我的演講稿之前，我想重申一下蒂姆在他的演講稿中表達的一些觀點。我們仍然沒有看到記憶體支出出現復甦跡象，而記憶體是我們 2019 年最強勁的市場。不過，我們確實觀察到這些市場中存在一些正面的動態。這些跡象包括需求彈性、價格趨勢以及透過管理工廠利用率來降低庫存。我們追蹤今年將有兩位數的新晶圓廠準備接收設備出貨，我們看到明年也有計畫再次這樣做。

We continue to believe, as a result, that 2020 sets up as a better year than 2019.

因此，我們仍然相信，2020 年將比 2019 年更好。

Operator, that concludes my prepared remarks. Tim and I would now like to open up the call for questions.

操作員，我的發言到此結束。提姆和我現在想開始接受提問。

.

。

(Operator Instructions) We'll take are our first question from Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）我們首先來聽聽摩根大通的哈蘭‧蘇爾提出的問題。

A quarter ago, the supply side situation in Memory was one of disciplined spending and sort of reining in supply. It was really the demand side that was still uncertain but just even over the past few weeks it seems that the demand side is starting to materialize here in the second half of this year, PC market looking seasonally stronger, cloud spending set to accelerate this quarter and you even have several big sort of AI in deep learning programs that are starting to fire. Your customers are also talking about inventory starting to come down. So is the Lam team feeling more confident, and more importantly, are your customers feeling more confident about the prospects for a healthier market environment exiting this year, relative to 3 months or 6 months ago?

一個季度前，記憶體市場的供應側情況是支出受到約束，供應受到某種程度的控制。真正不確定的是需求方面，但即使在過去的幾周里，需求方面似乎也開始在今年下半年顯現出來，PC 市場看起來季節性地強勁，雲端支出將在本季度加速成長，甚至還有一些大型的人工智慧和深度學習程式也開始啟動。您的客戶也在討論庫存開始下降的問題。那麼，與 3 個月前或 6 個月前相比，Lam 團隊是否更有信心？更重要的是，您的客戶是否對今年末市場環境的健康前景更有信心？

Sure. Harlan, I'll take that and then Doug can add what he would like to. Clearly, I maybe -- I walk you back since you kind of sets us as a baseline 3 or 6 months ago. The very first call of this year, we laid out a view that Memory spending really wouldn't recover for this entire year. You just heard Doug kind of reiterate that again. But that didn't mean that through the year, we wouldn't see progress. Progress in sentiment, progress in both the supply side and maybe the demand side. And so I guess what I would say is, incrementally, you are hearing commentary about the demand side. I talked about elasticity. You've heard that also from some others even closer to those markets than us. So I think that you're starting to see some sentiment in NAND that is -- are positive signs. Back 6 months ago, we also said that given the timing in which NAND corrected versus DRAM, but NAND corrected earlier, and therefore would be likely the first market where we would see end demand increases as well as pricing and market improvements. What we've tried not to do, and it's just challenging given the uncertainty in the market is, pin down exactly when that happened. So we have put an end year supply growth rate number out there which was, we said on the last call and we reiterate now, in the range of about 30% supply growth for NAND as we exit the year. And that's about 10 points below what Lam sees as long-term demand growth. And so, again, what we said is, at that point, it feels like the market will have tightened and investment could return. But obviously, pinning that exact timing is challenging. I feel like the year, in terms of supply improvement, demand improvement discipline is playing out very close to what we thought it would, with a whole lot of moving parts, but in general, and as I said directionally, very much likely we thought at the beginning of the year. I don't know if Doug has anything to add.

當然。哈蘭，我先收下這個，然後道格可以再添加他想添加的內容。顯然，我可能——我得把你拉回過去，因為你把我們設定為3個月或6個月前的基準線。在今年的第一次電話會議上，我們提出了一個觀點，即儲存設備支出在今年全年都不會真正恢復。你剛才聽到道格又重複了一遍。但這並不意味著在這一年中我們不會取得進步。市場情緒有所好轉，供給面和需求面可能都有改善。所以我想說的是，你正在逐漸聽到有關需求的評論。我談到了彈性。你也從一些比我們更了解這些市場的人那裡聽過類似的說法。所以我認為，NAND市場開始出現一些正面的訊號。6 個月前，我們也說過，考慮到 NAND 和 DRAM 的價格調整時間不同，NAND 的價格調整來得更早，因此很可能成為第一個出現終端需求成長以及價格和市場改善的市場。我們一直盡量避免去做的事情，而且鑑於市場的不確定性，也很難確定這件事究竟是什麼時候發生的。因此，我們公佈了年底的供應成長率數字，正如我們在上次電話會議上所說，現在我們重申，到年底時，NAND 的供應成長率約為 30%。這比林先生認為的長期需求成長低了約 10 個百分點。所以，我們再次強調，到那時，市場似乎會趨於緊縮，投資可能會回歸。但顯然，要準確掌握這個時間點是很困難的。我覺得今年在供應改善、需求改善和紀律方面，進展非常接近我們預期的情況，雖然有很多變數，但總的來說，正如我所說，從方向上看，很可能與我們年初的預期一致。我不知道道格還有什麼要補充的。

No. Perfect, Tim. I don't really have anything to add. You're starting to see, Harlan, you alluded to it, some of the early indications that the market is getting healthier, is turning. And inevitably, I think we all know it's a question of when, not an if, that Memory spending will recover and that continues to be how we see it.

不。太好了，提姆。我沒什麼要補充的了。哈蘭，你開始看到一些早期跡象表明，市場正在好轉，情況正在好轉，你也暗示過這一點。而且，我認為我們都知道，記憶消費復甦只是時間問題，而不是會不會復甦的問題，我們還是這麼認為。

Great. And then on the heavier China domestic mix, just given the continued trade tensions, U.S. and China, which is actually motivating a number of the China-based companies to bring in more chip design domestically, especially given some of the recent component bans and the delist additions. Have you guys seen an increase in dialogue or programs that suggest a step up on China domestic activities to accelerate their semiconductor manufacturing capabilities?

偉大的。而中國國內市場佔比更高的部分，鑑於中美之間持續的貿易緊張局勢，實際上促使許多中國公司將更多的晶片設計轉移到國內，尤其是在最近一些零件禁令和退市措施出台之後。你們有沒有註意到，有越來越多的對話或項目顯示中國正在加大國內活動力度，以加速其半導體製造能力的提升？

Yes. I think it's hard to say, to tie one directly to the other. What we said as we came into this year is that China domestic spending would be stronger this year than last year. And I would say that, at this point in the year, we feel maybe it's even somewhat stronger than that. And so demand from domestic China or indigenous Chinese customers is strong, as Doug pointed out. I think to this point of exactly what's driving that, I think there is obviously long-term demand and a long-term desire to build more domestic capability. When I think about China, it's -- the biggest challenge for us really is the uncertainty that a lot of the trade discussions, probably put not only the investment plans of indigenous Chinese customers, but also in the global players who are a little less certain about how those issues might play into the demand environment. So we're just trying -- we're managing through this. We've said our position in China is strong from a market share perspective and I think as you start to see some of the indigenous Chinese customers move into Memory, I would assume that our market share position should get even stronger. So it's an important region for us, but we track what's going on there closely and manage it as we see best.

是的。我覺得很難說，很難將兩者直接連結起來。今年年初我們預測，中國今年的國內消費支出將比去年強勁。而且我認為，到了今年這個時候，我們感覺情況可能比這還要好一些。正如道格所指出的那樣，來自中國國內或中國本土客戶的需求十分強勁。我認為，就目前而言，推動這一趨勢的根本原因顯然是長期需求和長期願望，即建立更多國內能力。當我想到中國時，我們面臨的最大挑戰實際上是貿易談判帶來的不確定性，這不僅可能影響中國本土客戶的投資計劃，也可能影響全球參與者，因為他們不太確定這些問題將如何影響需求環境。所以我們正在努力——我們正在想辦法渡過難關。我們已經說過，從市場佔有率的角度來看，我們在中國的地位很穩固。我認為，隨著一些中國本土客戶開始轉向儲存領域，我們的市佔率地位應該會更加穩固。所以這對我們來說是一個重要的地區，但我們會密切注意那裡發生的事情，並根據我們認為最好的方式進行管理。

We'll go next to Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

接下來我們將採訪高盛的 Toshiya Hari。

Tim, you talked a little bit about your focus on addressing semi-critical applications in your prepared remarks. And I think you threw out an example in conductor etch where you managed to have some wins in the quarter. Just curious, to semi-critical applications in general, how meaningful is that part of the market as a percentage of etch and deposition? Where is your market share today? And how do you see that evolving over the next couple of years? And then I have a follow-up.

提姆，你在事先準備好的發言稿中稍微談到了你對解決半關鍵應用問題的關注。我認為你在指揮蝕刻中舉了一個例子，你設法在季度中取得了一些勝利。我只是好奇，對於一般的半關鍵應用而言，蝕刻和沈積市場中這部分市佔率的意義有多大？你目前的市佔率是多少？您認為未來幾年這種情況會如何發展？然後我還有一個後續問題。

Yes. That's a great question. In fact, we said last time that as we move through the year and perhaps our Investor Day when we hold it next, we might break out a little bit more detail on the size of semi-critical as a percentage of our total, so we're not prepared to do that today. But it is -- the semi-critical is a meaningful part of the etch market. In terms of -- but I think it's also important and I really want to make sure that the message doesn't get lost. Our core strength, our core business is the critical market, but if you have ambitions to grow and outperform the industry in the long-term, you have to also be competitive in semi-critical. And so I think that we look at our performance in the last quarter, I didn't talk about it, but we successfully defended critical positions in all markets in the last quarter. And so that was a statement, and that's kind of how we go every quarter, thinking we have to get done, is defend our critical positions. Where we have the opportunity to grow is by taking semi-critical positions away from the competition. There, the defining factor is much more about productivity. As I think I mentioned in the last call, or at least in one of our conferences, productivity is something that the company knows how to do by learning from what has been done for a long time on the deposition side, where I would say a larger fraction of the market exists within the semi-critical space. And so what we tried to highlight in the prepared remarks today is refocusing some of our efforts to ensuring that our productivity, that we're delivering to customers is best-in-class, can yield wins for Lam in the semi-critical etch space. We gave you examples both in the conductor etch space as well as the dielectric etch space. And so obviously that's -- can be interpreted as against 2 different competitors. So I think we're making progress there. I think just stay tuned and we'll continue to report how we're doing against those efforts.

是的。這是一個很好的問題。事實上，我們上次說過，隨著時間的推移，或許在我們下次舉辦投資者日的時候，我們會更詳細地說明半關鍵業務規模占我們總業務的百分比，所以我們今天還不准備這樣做。但事實的確如此──半關鍵品是蝕刻市場的重要組成部分。就此而言——但我認為這也很重要，我真的想確保這個訊息不會被遺漏。我們的核心優勢和核心業務是關鍵市場，但如果你渴望長期發展並超越產業，你也必須在半關鍵市場中具有競爭力。所以我認為，如果我們回顧上個季度的表現，雖然我沒有具體談到，但我們在上個季度成功捍衛了所有市場的關鍵地位。所以這就是我們的一種表態，我們每季都會這樣做，認為我們必須完成的任務就是捍衛我們的關鍵立場。我們有機會發展壯大的地方在於，我們可以佔據一些對競爭對手至關重要的位置。在那裡，決定性因素更多地與生產力有關。正如我在上次電話會議或至少在我們的一次會議上提到的那樣，公司知道如何提高生產力，這得益於公司長期以來在沉積方面所做的工作，我認為半關鍵領域佔據了更大的市場份額。因此，我們在今天準備好的發言中試圖強調的是，我們將重新調整一些工作重點，以確保我們為客戶提供的生產力達到一流水平，從而為 Lam 在半關鍵蝕刻領域贏得勝利。我們分別在導體蝕刻空間和介質蝕刻空間中給出了範例。所以很明顯，這可以解讀為針對兩個不同的競爭對手。所以我覺得我們在這方面取得了進展。請大家繼續關注，我們會持續報告我們應對這些挑戰的進展。

Got it. And then as a follow-up, I was hoping to get an update on how you guys view EUV. How fast -- or how slow, rather, the technology is progressing on the Foundry and Logic side? How you see that impacting your business into 2020? And then more specifically, I guess one of your customers recently sort of talked about potentially inserting EUV on the DRAM side of their business at the 1Z nanometer node. How do you see that evolving over the next 12 to 18 months? And how that could impact your business?

知道了。然後，作為後續問題，我希望了解你們對 EUV 的看法。晶圓代工和邏輯電路的技術發展速度有多快？或者更確切地說，有多慢？您認為這將對貴公司2020年的業務產生哪些影響？更具體地說，我猜你們的一位客戶最近談到了在 1Z 奈米節點上將 EUV 技術引入其 DRAM 業務的可能性。您認為未來 12 到 18 個月內這種情況會如何發展？這會對您的業務產生什麼影響？

Sure. Okay. Great. It's funny, it's maybe I'll just come out with a very clear statement at the beginning because we get asked, when the EUV question gets asked, it's often, at least I interpret it as kind of like, is this going to have a negative impact on Lam's business. And so I guess what I'd like to start just by saying is, at this point, we view Lam -- EUV as being good for Lam. And maybe I'll just run you through a couple of reasons for that. I mean, we're aligned with this idea which is I think is held be many of our customers, that EUV is part of the answer to cost-effective scaling. And cost-effective scaling is what's needed for new technology nodes. New nodes are important to Lam, as you can guess. I just said our critical application business is the core of our business. Critical applications, kind of new ones get created when technology advances from node to node, and so that's part of our growth strategy, is to continue to win the next critical applications are being developed. New nodes also create SAM expansion opportunities for Lam. When there's a new node, I mean there's new materials and new architectures where Lam can use etch and deposition more effectively. We win new positions. And in terms of a negative impact, I mean multiple patterning, we've said also very clearly, continues to grow with more EUV. We've said obviously, it doesn't grow, multiple pattern, it doesn't grow as fast as if EUV doesn't exist. But again, our view is that's one of those hypothetical futures that it's hard to say exactly how many wafers will get produced in the future, if future nodes' without EV. So it's a long way of saying I think EUV, in total, is good for Lam.

當然。好的。偉大的。有趣的是，也許我應該在一開始就明確表態，因為當有人問到 EUV 的問題時，至少我的理解是，這是否會對 Lam 的業務產生負面影響。所以我想先說的是，目前我們認為 Lam – EUV 對 Lam 來說是有益的。或許我可以簡單地解釋一下其中的幾個原因。我的意思是，我們認同這種觀點，而且我認為我們的許多客戶也認同這種觀點，即 EUV 是實現成本效益型規模化解決方案的一部分。而經濟高效的擴展正是新技術節點所需要的。正如你所料，新節點對 Lam 來說很重要。我剛才說過，我們的關鍵應用業務是我們業務的核心。隨著技術從一個節點發展到另一個節點，一些關鍵應用，也就是新型應用，應運而生。因此，我們成長策略的一部分，就是不斷贏得下一個關鍵應用的開發。新節點也為 Lam 創造了 SAM 擴展機會。我的意思是，當出現新的節點時，就會出現新的材料和新的架構，Lam 可以更有效地利用蝕刻和沈積技術。我們贏得了新的職位。至於負面影響，我的意思是多重圖案化，我們也已經非常明確地說過，隨著 EUV 技術的進步，這種影響還在不斷增加。我們已經說過，很明顯，它不會成長，多種模式，它的成長速度不會像 EUV 不存在時那麼快。但是，我們的觀點是，這只是一個假設的未來，很難確切地說，如果未來的節點沒有電動車，未來將會生產多少晶圓。所以說了這麼多，其實我的意思是，總的來說，我認為 EUV 對林氏來說是件好事。

Now I also said, I think on our last call, that EUV is a big technology transition and you kind of pointed out the speed with which it gets introduced has a lot to do with productivity. And we think that Lam has a significant role that we can play in helping improve by using etching deposition, we can improve the productivity over the patterning module as a whole. And if we can do that, then it creates new opportunities for etch and deposition and we're partnering with ASML on those opportunities and I think we -- it's a big area of focus for us. Specifically to your question like or introduction in Logic and Foundry, I think our view is consistent with industry consensus. So I don't have a lot to say there. Around the question of 1Z insertion, again, I think you know probably what has been said. It's clearly not the general consensus that DRAM and D1Z will commonly use EUV. I mean, it's a node where people are talk -- at least 1 customer, as you said, is talking about putting it in kind of as maybe the learning node. But I think that I don't have anything else to add to it than that.

我在上次通話中也說過，EUV 是一項重大的技術變革，而您也指出，它的引入速度與生產力有很大關係。我們認為 Lam 可以發揮重要作用，透過蝕刻沉積技術，我們可以提高整個圖案化模組的生產效率。如果我們能夠做到這一點，那麼它將為蝕刻和沈積創造新的機會，我們正在與 ASML 合作抓住這些機會，我認為這對我們來說是一個重要的關注領域。具體來說，對於您提出的關於邏輯和 Foundry 的介紹之類的問題，我認為我們的觀點與行業共識一致。所以，我在這方面沒什麼好說的。關於 1Z 插入的問題，我想你可能已經知道之前都說過些什麼了。顯然，DRAM 和 D1Z 普遍採用 EUV 並非普遍共識。我的意思是，這是一個人們正在討論的節點——正如你所說，至少有一位客戶正在討論將其作為學習節點放置。但我認為我沒有什麼可以補充的了。

We'll go next to John Pitzer with Crédit Suisse.

接下來我們將連線瑞士信貸的約翰‧皮策。

Tim, at least by our math, if you kind of look at kind of your June shipments into the Memory market, they're down about 50% plus or minus from sort of peak, but they're still up if you look at -- you're almost 50% from sort of the 2014 to 2016 average, and there's been a lot that's going on with capital intensity, your SAM expansion, market share gains. You guys have been very clear about not calling a recovery in Memory, but I'm kind of curious, how do you think about the current level of spending relative to prior troughs in Memory spending when you adjust for capital intensity going up, SAM growth, market share, do you feel like we're bouncing along a bottom here in Memory? Or how should we think about that?

提姆，至少根據我們的計算，如果你看一下你六月份的內存市場出貨量，它比峰值下降了大約 50%，但如果你看一下，它仍然比 2014 年至 2016 年的平均水平高出近 50%，而且在資本密集度、SAM 擴張和市場份額增長方面發生了很多事情。你們一直非常明確地表示不會稱內存市場復甦，但我有點好奇，考慮到資本密集度上升、SAM增長、市場份額等因素，你們如何看待當前的內存支出水平與以往低谷時期相比？你們覺得我們目前在記憶體市場底部徘徊嗎？我們該如何看待這個問題？

I mean the one thing I would suggest, I would say, and we've been saying this all year is, when I look at the spending in Memory this year, it is almost entirely allocated to conversion-related investments, right? Which is always a cost-effective thing for the customer base to do, it lowers cost per bit. I don't know that I would say, it's a maintenance level or it's a bottom level, John. But it's always something that economically is it makes sense for the customer to do it. And that's pretty much what we're seeing happening this year. And your observation about SAM intensity, capital intensity going up and all of that is absolutely valid. It's gotten more expensive to put wafers in place because complexity of architectures have grown. Obviously, that's part of the calculus as well. I don't know, anything to add, Tim?

我的意思是，我建議的一點，也是我們今年一直在強調的一點，就是今年在內存方面的支出幾乎全部都用於與轉換相關的投資，對吧？這對客戶群來說始終是一件划算的事情，因為它降低了每比特的成本。約翰，我不知道該說這是維護等級還是最低等級。但從經濟角度來看，這對顧客來說總是有意義的。今年我們基本上看到的就是這種情況。你關於 SAM 強度、資本密集度上升等等的觀察完全正確。由於架構複雜度的增加，晶圓的安裝成本也隨之增加。顯然，這也是微積分的一部分。我不知道，提姆，還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes, no. I think in terms of, especially etch and depth intensity has changed in a pretty dramatic way since, what's the time? I agree with everything that Doug said. Our comments are, have been, we're clearly at a point where we believe that supply growth spending is insufficient to meet long-term demand growth. So however you want to call that, Doug, bottom or trough, as Doug said, we don't really want to do that but it's, this feels like the majority of investment is really around technology at this point.

是的，也不是。我認為，特別是蝕刻和深度強度，自…以來發生了相當大的變化。我完全同意道格所說的一切。我們一直以來的觀點是，我們顯然認為，供應成長支出不足以滿足長期需求成長。所以，不管你怎麼稱呼它，道格，底部還是低谷，正如道格所說，我們其實並不想那樣說，但目前看來，大部分投資確實都集中在技術方面。

That's helpful. And then as my follow-up, I was wondering if you can just give us update on kind of your view of the service business for this year, especially in lieu of sort of the some of the utilization cuts we've seen from your customers. I know the installed base is growing, which will give a tailwind to service, but is that still expected to grow? And as you answer the question, one of your customers, with the power outage this quarter, what kind of impact might that have had either on the services or quite frankly, in the shipment business?

那很有幫助。然後，作為我的後續問題，我想請您介紹一下您對今年服務業的看法，尤其是在我們看到您的客戶削減了一些服務使用量的情況下。我知道用戶基數正在成長，這將為服務帶來利好，但預計用戶基數還會繼續成長嗎？當您回答這個問題時，您的一位客戶表示，本季的停電可能對服務或坦白說，對貨運業務產生了什麼樣的影響？

Yes, John, it's Doug again. Yes, I still expect our installed base business to grow this year. And again, your observation is absolutely right. This business will ebb and flow somewhat with industry overall utilization. And I think it's pretty well understood that some of the Memory -- some of our Memory customers are reducing utilization to a certain extent, including from a power outage. And so as a result of that, things like spares consumption will decrease for a period of time, but this business will still grow this year. And it grows along with growth and chamber count. And as we've been saying, even though WFE is down so much, chamber count will still grow this year. So the tailwind of the business over the next several years continues to be pretty good.

是的，約翰，又是道格。是的，我仍然預期我們今年的客戶群業務會成長。你的觀察完全正確。該業務的興衰會隨著產業整體利用率的變化而有所波動。而且我認為大家普遍都明白，我們的一些記憶體客戶在一定程度上降低了記憶體的使用率，包括因停電而降低的使用率。因此，備件消耗等情況會在一段時間內減少，但這項業務今年仍將成長。它會隨著生長和腔室數量的增加而增長。正如我們一直所說，儘管 WFE 下降了很多，但今年的密室數量仍將增長。因此，未來幾年該業務的發展勢頭依然相當不錯。

We'll take our next question from Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

接下來，我們將回答瑞銀集團的提摩西‧阿庫裡提出的問題。

Doug, I guess both of my questions are for you. The first one is, I'm wondering if you can update us on the comments you gave I think on second half versus first half loading? Obviously, your full year WFE has not changed, but the mix has changed a little bit. It seems like maybe a little bit less in your favor. So can you update us on the second half versus first half of this year?

道格，我想我的兩個問題都是問你的。第一個問題是，我想請您更新您之前關於下半場和上半場加載速度的評論？顯然，您的全年 WFE 沒有改變，但組成略有變化。看起來情況似乎對你不太有利。那麼，您能否向我們介紹一下今年下半年與上半年相比的情況？

Yes. Tim, you're right, the puts and takes. We're still suggesting WFE this year is down mid- to high teens. And within that, there are puts and takes. Memory is somewhat softer than we were describing a quarter ago, and Foundry is a little bit stronger. Maybe a decent amount stronger. And when I look at the profile of that investment, the spending in Memory is somewhat first half weighted. The spending in Foundry and Logic is somewhat second half weighted. And when you put it all together, I think WFE this year will be a little bit weighted to the second half.

是的。提姆，你說得對，就是放手和接手。我們仍然認為今年 WFE 將下降 15% 到 10% 左右。其中，既有付出，也有收穫。記憶體比我們一個季度前描述的要弱一些，而鑄造廠則稍微強一些。或許強度強得多。當我查看該投資的概況時，發現記憶體方面的支出在前半年佔比較高。Foundry 和 Logic 的支出在下半年有所集中。綜合所有因素來看，我認為今年的WFE賽事重心會稍微偏向下半年。

I guess Doug, I was more talking about your shipments but I think you had previously guided your shipments or your revenue second half versus first half, so I'm wondering if you can update that?

我想道格，我主要是想問你的出貨量，但我記得你之前已經對下半年的出貨量或收入與上半年相比的情況做過預測，所以我想問你能否更新一下？

No. We've never guided revenue half on half. We've always, and maybe I was misinterpreted talking about WFE.

不。我們從未按半年的周期來預測營收。我們一直都是，也許我談論 WFE 時被誤解了。

Okay. Awesome. Okay. And then I guess my second question, Doug is, you're doing $12 annualized in a pretty nasty Memory cycle, systems for Memory are cut in half and total system shipments are down somewhere in the range of 40% from the peak. Obviously, it's much down than really anything in the past. So I guess the question is, how do you think about how to optimize the capital structure in the balance sheet as you come out of this? You have bought back a ton of stock, but I'm wondering how you think about the right balance sheet leverage targets as you look out over the next few years?

好的。驚人的。好的。那麼，我的第二個問題是，Doug，在記憶體市場如此糟糕的時期，你的年化收入達到了 12 美元，記憶體系統銷量減半，系統總出貨量比峰值下降了 40% 左右。顯然，這比以往任何時期都要低得多。所以我想問的是，在走出困境之後，您是如何考慮優化資產負債表中的資本結構的？你們已經回購了大量股票，但我想知道，展望未來幾年，你們如何看待合適的資產負債表槓桿目標？

Yes, Tim, I mean, I haven't communicated a numeric target for leverage or total cash or anything like that. But if you look at what we've done over the last several years, I think we've had an inclination to provide meaningful cash back to shareholders. The cash generation capability of the business continues to be amazingly strong, right? We're coming off 2 quarters now of nearly 900 -- or approximately $900 million from operational cash flow, so our confidence in the ability to sustain cash generation is obviously much higher. And if you look at a metric like net cash, it's also why we've been comfortable bringing that down. And we've done that through raising a little bit of debt and consuming the cash, by both dividends and more towards share buyback. At some point we'll probably have an investor event again and talk a little bit more about it, but I'm not ready to change what we've described in the past which has been, we're going to return at least 50% of free cash flow to shareholders. And what you've seen us do is a whole lot more than that over the last several years.

是的，提姆，我的意思是，我沒有透露任何關於槓桿率、現金總額或其他類似目標的具體數字。但如果你看看我們過去幾年所做的工作，我認為我們一直傾向於向股東提供可觀的現金回報。該公司的現金流創造能力依然非常強勁，對吧？我們已經連續兩個季度實現了近 9 億美元（約 9 億美元）的營運現金流，因此我們對持續產生現金流的能力顯然更有信心。如果你看一下淨現金流這樣的指標，這也是我們一直樂於降低淨現金流的原因。我們透過舉債和消耗現金來實現這一目標，現金的用途包括支付股息和更多地用於股票回購。我們可能還會再舉辦一次投資者活動，再詳細談談這件事，但我並不准備改變我們過去的說法，那就是我們將至少把 50% 的自由現金流返還給股東。而你們在過去幾年所看到的，遠不止這些。

We'll go next to CJ Muse with Evercore ISI.

接下來我們將介紹 CJ Muse 和 Evercore ISI。

I guess first question, can you speak to, on both Foundry, Logic side, your revenue intensity at the 16, 14, 10 nodes, and how we think about share gains and/or greater opportunities for you as we migrate down to 7 and 5? And if there's any way to kind of quantify what the incremental revenues per wafer start or any sort of math like that, that will be very helpful.

我想問的第一個問題是，您能否分別從 Foundry 和 Logic 的角度談談你們在 16、14、10 個節點上的收入情況，以及當我們向 7 和 5 個節點遷移時，我們如何看待市場份額的增長和/或更大的發展機會？如果能以某種方式量化每片晶圓的增量收入，或進行類似的計算，那將非常有幫助。

CJ, I'm going to let Tim actually talk about the direction. We haven't quantified it. And we're not ready to do that on the call, but Tim is pretty well versed in the trajectory. So if you can cover that.

CJ，我打算讓提姆來談方向。我們尚未對其進行量化。我們還不打算在電話會議上討論這個問題，但提姆對事情的發展軌跡相當了解。所以如果你能承擔這部分費用的話。

Good, they took the numbers off the table for me, but I think, maybe the first thing we we've said and we feel quite confident is, in kind of the Logic, Foundry world, our share gains for a variety of reasons, both through wins but also new applications that we've gained our share gains, are gains between 10, 7 and 5. And so we feel quite confident that part of that is intensity in etching deposition, part of that is new applications that created, get created, it's new processes. And so while we haven't quantified it, I would say that, as I said in my EUV commentary, every technology transition is an opportunity for us to gain new applications and gain share. We feel really good about the progress we've made. It sometimes get lost in the -- in this overlying story about memory and memory spending and how much impact it has on our business, but we're feeling quite good about our momentum in Logic and Foundry, both.

很好，他們幫我把具體數字排除在外了，但我認為，我們首先要說的，也是我們相當有信心的一點是，在邏輯晶片和晶圓代工領域，由於各種原因，包括贏得訂單和獲得新應用，我們的市場份額增長了10%到7%到5%。因此，我們相當有信心，部分原因是蝕刻沉積技術的進步，部分原因是新應用的出現和新製程的開發。因此，雖然我們還沒有量化，但正如我在 EUV 評論中所說，每一次技術轉型都是我們獲得新應用和市場份額的機會。我們對所取得的進展感到非常滿意。它有時會被淹沒在關於內存和內存支出以及它對我們業務的影響的這層表象之下，但我們對 Logic 和 Foundry 的發展勢頭都感到非常滿意。

That's helpful. And as my follow-up, any update on your self-cleaning etch offering? I'd love to hear about the Kiyo module coupled with Corvus. Anything you can share with us would be great.

那很有幫助。另外，請問你們的自清潔蝕刻產品有任何最新進展嗎？我很想了解 Kiyo 模組與 Corvus 結合使用的情況。如果您能與我們分享任何訊息，我們將不勝感激。

Okay. Well, I'm not sure I can share with you other than it continues to progress in the marketplace. It's, again, when I talked about semi-critical applications where customers are really focused on trying to optimize the productivity of existing fabs. And 1 element to productivity of fab is how often you have to actually have technicians or people going and doing maintenance on tools. And the Kiyo product with the Corvus R, the self-maintaining tool, is part of that answer. Now, obviously, there's not a lot of spending going on in some of those segments but we feel this is another example of where we've introduced the right product, that one spending recovers in the Memory market, they should be perfectly targeted to the types of tools that customers want to put in to all those new fabs they're building right now.

好的。嗯，除了它在市場上持續發展之外，我不太確定還能透露什麼。當我再次談到半關鍵應用時，客戶真正關注的是努力優化現有晶圓廠的生產效率。影響晶圓廠生產效率的一個因素是，你需要多久安排一次技術人員或人員去維護設備。Kiyo 的產品 Corvus R（一款自維護工具）就是解決方案的一部分。顯然，在某些領域，支出並不多，但我們認為這是另一個例子，說明我們推出了正確的產品，一旦記憶體市場的支出回升，這些產品就應該能夠完美地滿足客戶希望在他們目前正在建設的所有新晶圓廠中使用的工具類型。

We'll go next to Krish Sankar with Cowen and Company.

接下來我們將介紹考恩公司的克里什·桑卡爾。

I have 2 of them. First one for Tim, one of the things I've been hearing is that actually go to higher and higher layers in 3D NAND, the process time for etch keeps going up. Is there a way to quantify in either absolute minutes or relative to prior nodes, what kind of increase in process times are we talking about and what does it mean for Lam?

我有兩個。首先是給 Tim 的，我一直聽到的一種說法是，隨著 3D NAND 層數的增加，蝕刻製程時間也在增加。有沒有辦法以絕對分鐘數或相對於先前節點的相對時間來量化，我們所說的處理時間增加量是多少，這對 Lam 意味著什麼？

Okay. Well, I don't think that we're going to quantify that because it's kind of a competitive piece of information that we wouldn't want to divulge here, but it does, I mean to your point, it takes a longer time to etch higher aspect ratio features and I think that it's relatively well known that, that increase is nonlinear with the number of layers, meaning the etch becomes longer nonlinearly with the number of layers that are being created. And that's simply due to the etch process physics themselves, physics and chemistry. And so more layers has a positive impact on -- for Lam on the number of etch tools that are required to accomplish that etch. Now what I would say is that there's a constant battle, I mean, to keep the cost of ownership reasonable for customers, we're continuously working on productivity of every etch we deliver to the customer, including critical etches like the whole -- the 3D whole etch. So not prepared to quantify today, but it is a positive grower for us.

好的。嗯，我不認為我們會對此進行量化，因為這涉及競爭訊息，我們不想在這裡透露。但正如你所說，蝕刻高縱橫比特徵需要更長的時間，而且我認為眾所周知，蝕刻時間的增長與層數呈非線性關係，這意味著蝕刻時間會隨著所創建層數的增加而非線性地延長。這完全是由於蝕刻製程本身的物理原理，即物理和化學原理所致。因此，更多的層數對 Lam 有正面的影響，即完成該蝕刻所需的蝕刻工具的數量。現在我想說的是，我們一直在努力保持客戶的合理擁有成本，為此，我們不斷努力提高交付給客戶的每一個蝕刻件的生產效率，包括像整體蝕刻（3D 整體蝕刻）這樣的關鍵蝕刻件。所以今天還不方便量化，但對我們來說，它的成長勢頭良好。

Got it. Got it. Okay. And then as a follow-up, Tim. When you start gaining more share, refocus more on the semi-critical etch applications, how should we think about the margin structure, because it seems like productivity is key in this segment. Is productivity a euphemism for lower price? Or just trying to figure out how to think about margins and you get more share in semi-critical etch?

知道了。知道了。好的。然後，提姆接著說：當你開始獲得更多市佔率時，要更專注於半關鍵蝕刻應用，我們該如何考慮利潤結構呢？因為在這個領域，生產效率似乎是關鍵。提高生產力是不是降低價格的委婉說法？或者你只是想弄清楚如何考慮利潤率，然後在半關鍵蝕刻領域獲得更多份額？

No. Definitely in my mind, it's not a euphemism for lower price. Productivity is, in many ways, is much of a technology challenge as any other. And so we're attacking productivity, we are attacking it fundamentally from equipment and hardware and process design in a way that we deliver increased productivity with the cost structure of the tool that allows us to deliver corporate average gross margins for those applications. That's our expectation. And so that sometimes takes time and will require us, in many cases, to think long and hard about how our tools are designed, but that is the expectation that I have for winning in that space.

不。在我看來，這絕對不是價格較低的委婉說法。從很多方面來看，生產力和其他挑戰一樣，都是技術挑戰。因此，我們正在從根本上提高生產力，從設備、硬體和流程設計入手，以期在工具成本結構允許的範圍內提高生產力，從而為這些應用實現企業平均毛利率。這是我們的預期。因此，這有時需要時間，在許多情況下，需要我們認真思考如何設計我們的工具，但這正是我期望在這個領域取得成功的原因。

We'll take our next question from Weston Twigg with KeyBanc Capital markets.

接下來，我們將回答來自 KeyBanc Capital Markets 的 Weston Twigg 提出的問題。

First, I just wanted to probe a little bit about your comments on 2020. You said you think it's shaping up to be an up year, but I was wondering if you could just walk us a little bit through the puts and takes, maybe both in Memory and Foundry, what it would take be an up year? And sort of what your expectations are regarding those?

首先，我想稍微了解一下您對 2020 年的看法。你說你認為今年可能會是好年，但我很想知道你是否可以稍微帶我們了解一下，在 Memory 和 Foundry 這兩個領域，什麼樣的事情才能算是好年？你對這些方面有什麼期望？

Yes, West. Too soon for us to get into specifics on this. Really the commentary around setting up for a better year next year, it's all about Memory recovering in terms of investment levels. We'll give you more color on it when we get a little closer to next year, and I'm sure a lot's going to move around in there. But as we sit here today and look at the level of investment occurring in Memory and the growth rates of bits exiting the year and whatnot, we believe the level of investment there needs to go up next year, and that's the nature of the comments.

是的，西部。現在討論具體細節還為時過早。實際上，關於為明年更好的一年做準備的評論，都圍繞著Memory在投資水平上的恢復。等到明年臨近的時候，我們會提供更多細節，我相信屆時很多事情都會有所變動。但當我們今天坐在這裡，審視記憶體領域的投資水準以及年底的成長率等等，我們認為明年該領域的投資水準需要提高，這就是我們評論的性質。

That makes sense. I guess related to, you talked about some new wins and focusing on market share gains and SAM expansion, some of the stuff you outlined today, can you help us maybe put some numbers around what -- how much that could expand the opportunity in 2020? The revenue opportunity deal for you?

這很有道理。我想，您剛才談到了一些新的勝利，並專注於市場份額的增長和SAM的擴張，您今天概述的這些內容，能否幫我們估算一下——這些在2020年能帶來多大的機會？對您來說，這是個絕佳的獲利機會嗎？

Well I think maybe, kind of no, but you should come back to the -- but you, we're getting closer and closer to our market share targets that we put out for 2021. So I guess you can think of these as we've come out and we have said that we would gain 4 to 8 points of share within etch and 4 to 8 points within deposition by 2021. That was our last stated set of objectives. And when you think about progress we already made in our share positioning critical, that's where you move to semi-critical and you say a fair bit of that share gain, 4 to 8 points is going to come from those types of wins. That's why what we wanted to highlight today that we feel we're just at the start of making some of the progress towards that type of share gain.

嗯，我覺得也許吧，有點兒不對，但是你應該回到——但是，我們越來越接近我們為 2021 年制定的市場份額目標了。所以，你可以把這些理解為我們已經公開表示，到 2021 年，我們將在蝕刻領域獲得 4 到 8 個百分點的市場份額，在沉積領域獲得 4 到 8 個百分點的市場份額。那是我們最後公佈的目標。當你考慮到我們在市場份額定位方面已經取得的進展時，關鍵就變成了半關鍵，你會說相當一部分市場份額的增長（4到8個百分點）將來自這類勝利。這就是為什麼我們今天想強調的是，我們感覺我們才剛開始朝著獲得這種份額成長的方向取得一些進展。

We'll go next to Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley.

接下來我們連線摩根士丹利的喬摩爾。

I wonder if you could talk a little bit more about the strength in the indigenous China spending. How does that break down between Foundry, DRAM, NAND and just generally, your view on the sustainability of that spending into next year?

我想請您再詳細談談中國本土消費的強勁勢頭。晶圓代工、DRAM、NAND快閃記憶體等方面的支出佔比如何？您認為明年這些支出能否持續？

Joe, we described in the past view that plus or minus, there's investment levels of $5 billion from indigenous China relative to WFE this year. As we look at it now, a little bit stronger than that, quite honestly. The strength is coming from Memory, primarily. And I think you know what's going on. There's several Foundry customers there, the big one is SMIC. They continue to be a very important customer for us. You got YMTC investing in NAND and then emerging DRAM investments. The uptick relative to prior communication, I think it's been primarily related to Memory, both a little bit of NAND, a little bit of DRAM.

Joe，我們先前的觀點是，今年中國本土企業相對於世界外國資產的投資額將達到 50 億美元左右。坦白說，我們現在看來，情況比這要好一些。力量主要來自記憶。我想你知道發生了什麼事。那裡有好幾家 Foundry 的客戶，其中最大的客戶是中芯國際。他們一直是我們非常重要的客戶。YMTC投資了NAND​​閃存，然後又投資了新興的DRAM。與先前的溝通相比，我認為成長主要與記憶體有關，包括少量的 NAND 快閃記憶體和少量的 DRAM 快閃記憶體。

And the majority of the output that they're getting from that spending, I mean, is that something where you could see more kind of a larger capacity as we move forward? Or is it more pilots and kind of getting things figured out?

而他們從這些支出中獲得的大部分產出，我的意思是，隨著我們向前邁進，我們是否可以看到更大的產能？或者說，更多的是試播集，以及一些後續工作的進展？

Yes. I mean, Joe, I think they're going to continue to keep innovating on the technology, they're going to keep getting better and better at what they do and it wouldn't surprise me if they can continue to invest at higher levels as we go forward. I'm not ready going to quantify it for you, but they're working very, very diligently on innovating the technology.

是的。我的意思是，喬，我認為他們會繼續在技術上進行創新，他們會在自己的領域不斷進步，如果他們未來能夠繼續加大投資力度，我一點也不會感到驚訝。我現在還無法給出具體的量化數據，但他們在技術創新方面確實非常非常努力。

We'll take our next question from Vivek Arya with Bank of America.

接下來，我們將回答來自美國銀行的維韋克·阿亞提出的問題。

I had 2 as well. I wanted to also ask about China. So sales were up 20% in the last fiscal year, non-China was down about that number. How do you measure utilization at your customers? Because their purchasing has gone up right around the time when trade tensions have increased. So is there a risk that there have been pull-ins and this becomes an issue later on?

我也有兩份。我還想問關於中國的問題。因此，上個財年銷售額成長了 20%，而中國以外的銷售額則下降了大約相同的數字。您如何衡量客戶的使用率？因為他們的採購量恰好在貿易緊張局勢加劇的同時上升。那麼是否有這樣的風險：已經有人進行過拉攏，而這在以後可能會成為一個問題？

Yes, Vivek, when I look at it, I don't think there's significant pull-ins occurring in what we're seeing happening. And I say because we sort of knew our customers' plans as the year began. And when I look at it for the most part, they're executing to those plans. It's also important I think to understand that a lot of the investment in China is not indigenous Chinese customers, right? You've got the Koreans building fabs, Taiwanese, U.S. companies. So understand that a broad swathe of the spending in China isn't necessarily the indigenous Chinese customers. That's generally how I see that.

是的，維韋克，我觀察​​了一下，我認為我們目前看到的現象並沒有出現明顯的拉攏效應。我說這話是因為我們在年初的時候就已經大致了解了客戶的計畫。而且在我看來，他們大部分時間都在按照這些計畫執行。我認為同樣重要的是要明白，許多在中國的投資並非面向中國本土客戶，對吧？韓國、台灣、美國的公司都在建晶圓廠。所以要明白，中國的大部分消費不一定是中國本土消費者的消費。我通常也是這麼看的。

Okay. And then for my follow-up, Doug, on gross margins, you are guiding to 45%. And I know you mentioned a few times that mix changes from quarter-to-quarter. What in the mix is driving gross margins lower? Because when I look at the revenue level, it's kind of back to where it was in March 2017. But at that time, gross margins were higher. But I recall at that time, Foundry, Logic was a lower part of the mix. So is it Foundry, Logic that has an impact on gross margin? And I think you also alluded to the fact that you do expect to continue to grow in Foundry, Logic. So just how should we think about the trajectory of gross margins over the next several quarters?

好的。然後，Doug，我的後續問題是毛利率，你預計為 45%。我知道您曾多次提到，每個季度配方都會有所變化。哪些因素導致毛利率下降？因為從收入水平來看，它已經回到了 2017 年 3 月的水平。但當時的毛利率更高。但我記得當時，Foundry 和 Logic 在軟體組合中的地位比較低。那麼，是 Foundry 和 Logic 對毛利率產生影響嗎？而且我認為你也暗示過，你希望在 Foundry Logic 繼續成長。那麼，我們該如何看待未來幾季毛利率的走勢呢？

Yes, Vivek, I wouldn't assume or you shouldn't assume there's differential gross margin by end of market necessarily, meaning Foundry to Logic to Memory. That's not the way it works. Generally, there are, it's what I always say, that the larger customers, because they're buying more, may tend to get a little bit better pricing, simply because they're buying more from us, relative to discounts, sometimes. Not always, but obviously, when you look at revenue down the way it is, that's probably one of the bigger contributors right now. And Tim, would you want to...

是的，Vivek，我不會假設，或者你不應該假設終端市場（即晶圓代工、邏輯電路和記憶體）的毛利率必然存在差異。事情並非如此。一般來說，正如我一直說的，大客戶因為購買量大，所以往往會獲得更優惠的價格，僅僅是因為他們從我們這裡購買的商品更多，相對於折扣而言，有時也是如此。並非總是如此，但顯然，從目前的收入情況來看，這可能是目前最大的影響因素之一。提姆，你願意…

Yes, no. I think there's a -- you referenced back to a point in 2017. We look at those all the time to think about what's different in our business. And what you have to look at is that as we transition through '17, it was a massive growth cycle for us. And while we have a very flexible operating model, some of the physical infrastructure that we have to put in place to meet a $3 billion quarterly revenue run rate, some of that physical capacity has not been taken offline and it does affect gross margin to some degree. Yes, we are confident that, that kind of physical capacity is what's needed to be able to respond when customers do ramp as Memory spending recovers. So flexible operating model, Doug talked about temporary workforce, but in some cases, there were costs put in which are still with us. Doug, I don't know if you have...

是的，也不是。我認為有一個——你提到了2017年的某個時間點。我們經常關注這些，思考我們業務中有哪些不同之處。你需要看到的是，在 2017 年，我們經歷了一個巨大的成長週期。雖然我們的營運模式非常靈活，但為了達到每季 30 億美元的營收目標，我們必須投入一些實體基礎設施，而部分實體產能尚未停用，這在一定程度上影響了毛利率。是的，我們確信，這種實體容量正是當客戶隨著記憶體支出恢復而增加需求時，我們能夠做出回應所必需的。因此，靈活的營運模式，道格談到了臨時工，但在某些情況下，投入的成本仍然存在。道格，我不知道你有沒有…

Yes. No, perfect.

是的。不，完美。

We'll go next to Patrick Ho with Stifel.

接下來我們將採訪史迪菲集團的何志強。

Tim, maybe to follow up on your prepared remarks you talked about some of the new emerging technologies such as gate-all-around and the industry transition in DRAM to 1Z and 1A. On the gate-all-around, given that it's a similar format to FinFET, are there any capital intensity increases for etch and deposition that would benefit you guys when the industry makes (inaudible) because you guys clearly benefit from the transition of FinFET?

Tim，也許可以接著你準備好的發言，談談一些新興技術，例如全環柵技術以及DRAM產業向1Z和1A的轉型。關於環柵結構，鑑於它與 FinFET 類似，當行業進行（聽不清）時，蝕刻和沈積方面的資本密集度是否有任何增加，這將使你們受益，因為你們顯然從 FinFET 的轉型中受益？

Yes. I think that, I mean what I was trying to message is that, at almost every node, our customers, the industry has realized that 3D scaling is a key part of the answer, both to device performance as well as cost scaling. And for us, 3D scaling really means etching deposition intensity tends to increase. Obviously, we're still a little ways away, I mean we're highly engaged with 3-nanometer, but final decisions ultimately get made relative to structures and architectures in the future. But it's really a message around etch and depth intensity to create 3D architectures. It's also why I pointed out, in case it was missed, the 3D architecture that's emerging in the heterogeneous integration, or advanced packaging space, which again, is 3D chip stacking and how Lam's etching deposition will play a role in that. So what I was trying to just translate it, I believe that 3D and etching depth intensity kind of is, is fanning out across all device types in the future.

是的。我認為，我的意思是，我想表達的是，幾乎在每個節點上，我們的客戶，整個行業都意識到，3D 縮放是解決問題的關鍵，無論是設備性能還是成本縮放。對我們來說，3D縮放實際上意味著蝕刻沉積強度往往會增加。顯然，我們離目標還有一段路要走，我的意思是，我們目前正全力投入 3 奈米技術，但最終的決定還是要根據未來的結構和架構來做出的。但這實際上是關於蝕刻和深度強度以創建 3D 架構的資訊。這也是為什麼我特意指出，為了避免有人錯過，異質整合或先進封裝領域正在興起的 3D 架構，也就是 3D 晶片堆疊，以及 Lam 的蝕刻沉積技術將在其中發揮的作用。所以，我試圖翻譯的意思是，我認為 3D 和蝕刻深度強度在未來會擴展到所有類型的設備。

Great. And my follow-up question for Doug in terms of the installed base business, that's probably providing you a lot of support this year given the pressures on the systems business. Can you give a little color if you're seeing a lot of upgrade business for, I guess the trailing edge, the fabs that are trying to upgrade, improve their productivity, is that a key driver to the installed base business? And the strength that you're likely seeing this year?

偉大的。關於已安裝基礎業務，我還有一個後續問題想問道格，鑑於系統業務面臨的壓力，這或許會在今年為你提供很大的支持。您能否簡要介紹一下，如果您看到很多升級業務，例如那些處於技術落後階段的晶圓廠正在嘗試升級以提高生產效率，這是否是推動現有設備業務成長的關鍵因素？你今年可能會看到的強勁勢頭是什麼？

That's certainly a piece of it. In fact, last quarter, record level for our Reliant business, which is our refurbished equipment. So the answer, Patrick, is yes.

這當然是其中一部分原因。事實上，上個季度我們的 Reliant 業務（即翻新設備業務）創下了歷史新高。所以答案是肯定的，派崔克。

We'll go next to Sidney Ho with Deutsche Bank.

接下來我們將採訪德意志銀行的何鴻燊。

I've got 2 questions on the Memory side. You talk about NAND to supply growth rate exiting this year at about 30%. Can you give us a sense how you think the CapEx or the equipment spend needed to support say, every 1 percentage point of this supply growth from the current "conversion-only" trough? And can you do the same for DRAM? I guess we have -- you have given us the estimated cost for greenfield fabs before, but just trying to put those pieces of information together.

關於記憶體方面，我有兩個問題。您提到 NAND 快閃記憶體今年的供應成長率約為 30%。您能否大致說明一下，為了支援從目前的「僅轉換」低谷期開始，每成長 1 個百分點的供應量，您認為需要多少資本支出或設備支出？那麼，你對DRAM也做同樣的操作嗎？我想我們已經有了——您之前已經給我們提供了新建晶圓廠的估計成本，但我們現在只是想把這些資訊整合起來。

Yes, Sidney. No I don't think we've quantified this in the past. And I don't think we're ready to on the call right now. So I'm going to decline to answer the question.

是的，西德尼。不，我認為我們過去還沒有對此進行過量化分析。我認為我們現在還沒準備好在電話會議上討論這個問題。所以，我將拒絕回答這個問題。

Okay. I'll move on the next one. If I take your reported revenue by end market and compare to what we think the WFE dollars for the various segments, I can see that your share has been moving up steadily across all the different segments in recent years. But the one that stood out to me is NAND, which gets to be pretty high, just take your revenue number, that's probably including services, and divide it by WFE, you get to somewhere around 40% from call it 20%, 25% a few years ago. Do you think that number could go higher as the market transitions to higher layer count? I guess this question is whether it's sustainable.

好的。我接著處理下一個。如果我把你們按終端市場報告的收入與我們認為各個細分市場的 WFE 美元進行比較，我可以看到，近年來你們在所有不同細分市場的份額都在穩步上升。但最讓我印象深刻的是 NAND，它的佔比非常高，只需將你的收入數字（可能包括服務收入）除以 WFE，你就會發現它佔比已經從幾年前的 20% 或 25% 增長到了 40% 左右。你認為隨著市場向更高層數的產品過渡，這個數字還會繼續上升嗎？我想這個問題在於它是否可持續。

Well I guess, as what we've said is that etch and deposition are really key to continued scaling in 3D NAND, and so etch and deposition intensity scales with number of layers. So from that perspective, measuring share of the customer's total spend on 3D NAND, it will, we do believe it can and will go higher.

我想，正如我們所說，蝕刻和沈積對於 3D NAND 的持續微縮至關重要，因此蝕刻和沈積強度會隨著層數的增加而增加。因此，從這個角度來看，衡量客戶在 3D NAND 上的總支出份額，我們相信它能夠而且將會繼續成長。

We'll take our final question from Mitch Steves with RBC Capital Markets.

我們最後回答來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的米奇·史蒂夫斯提出的問題。

I just have 1 extra one on kind of focusing on the share gain potential here. So I don't expect you guys to know what exactly what happened to Japan and Korea, but if you look at the etch and deposition tools you guys sell, where do you guys think you have the most opportunity to gain share against Tokyo Electron?

我還有一份額外的報告，主要關注這裡的股票增值潛力。所以我並不指望你們確切地知道日本和韓國發生了什麼，但是如果你們看看你們銷售的蝕刻和沈積工具，你們認為在哪些方面最有機會從東京電子手中奪取市場份額？

I'm not going to get specific, but okay. Well, this is -- look, and this is also why I talk about the importance of performing really well in the semi-critical space. Critical applications, that's the reason we like them, is they're hard to win and it takes often a generation or 2 to sort of prove yourself out. Those are less likely to switch due to some short-term event. Semi-critical or less critical applications are much more driven by can you accomplish that task at a certain targeted productivity point? So I think that there are a number of applications that we would be targeting, where we're highly capable of doing those. And if the customer is motivated to give Lam a try, we're motivated to jump in there and show what we can do.

我不打算說具體細節，好。嗯，這就是——你看，這也是為什麼我經常談到在半關鍵領域表現出色非常重要的原因。關鍵應用之所以吸引我們，是因為它們很難成功，而且往往需要一兩個世代的時間才能證明自己的價值。這些群體不太可能因為某些短期事件而改變立場。半關鍵或較不關鍵的應用更受「能否在特定目標生產力水準下完成該任務」這一因素的驅動？所以我認為，我們可以瞄準一些特定的應用領域，並且我們完全有能力勝任這些領域。如果顧客願意嘗試 Lam 的產品，我們也會積極投入，展現我們的實力。

Got it. And just one real quick high level one. I don't know the exact math off the top of my head, but roughly speaking, from the last downturn you guys have seen, do you guys see anything irregular in terms of buying patterns? Suggest that people are buying ahead? Or buying additional equipment than normal down cycle? Or do you think this is essentially a normal semi cap cycle that you see in the past?

知道了。就簡單問一個高層次的問題。我記不清具體的計算方法，但粗略地說，從你們上次經歷的市場低迷期來看，你們有沒有發現購買模式方面有什麼異常之處？是不是有人提前購買了？或是購買比正常下行週期更多的設備？或者你認為這本質上是一個你過去經常看到的正常的半市值週期？

No. Nothing from my perspective that's out of the ordinary. In fact, that was why I kind of started my comments with. For the most part, given some different puts and takes, the year's playing out not that differently than we had originally thought, from the standpoint of moving through a downcycle in Memory.

不。在我看來，一切正常。事實上，這就是我一開始就這麼說的原因。總的來說，考慮到一些不同的投入和收穫，從記憶力衰退週期的角度來看，今年的發展與我們最初設想的並沒有太大不同。

So operator, I think that's the end of the call. If you want to sign us off.

接線員，我想通話到此結束了。如果你想讓我們結束通話的話。

Thank you, everyone, for joining.

謝謝大家的參與。

Yes, certainly. Ladies and gentlemen, thank you very much for your participation. You may now disconnect.

當然可以。女士們、先生們，非常感謝各位的參與。您現在可以斷開連線了。