科林研發 (LRCX) 2020 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Lam Research Corporation's December Quarter 2019 Financial Results Conference Call.

大家好，歡迎參加 Lam Research Corporation 2019 年 12 月季度財務業績電話會議。

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Ms. Tina Correia, Corporate VP of Investor Relations. Ma'am, please begin.

此時，我謹將會議交給投資人關係公司副總裁蒂娜‧科雷亞女士。女士，請開始。

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to the Lam Research quarterly earnings conference call. With me today are Tim Archer, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Doug Bettinger, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝大家，大家下午好。歡迎參加 Lam Research 的季度財報電話會議。今天陪同我出席的有總裁兼執行長提姆·阿徹，以及執行副總裁兼財務長道格·貝廷格。

During today's call, we will share our overview on the business environment and review our financial results for the December 2019 quarter and our outlook for the March 2020 quarter. The press release detailing our financial results was distributed a little after 1:00 p.m. Pacific Time this afternoon. The release can also be found on the Investor Relations section of the company's website along with the presentation slides that accompany today's call.

在今天的電話會議上，我們將分享我們對商業環境的概述，並回顧我們 2019 年 12 月季度的財務業績以及我們對 2020 年 3 月季度的展望。詳細介紹我們財務表現的新聞稿已於下午 1 點剛過發布。太平洋時間今天下午。該新聞稿以及今天電話會議的簡報也可在公司網站的投資者關係部分找到。

Today's presentation and Q&A includes forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties reflected in the risk factors disclosed in our SEC public filings. Please see accompanying slides in the presentation for additional information. Today's discussion of our financial results will be presented on a non-GAAP financial basis unless otherwise specified. A detailed reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP results can be found in today's earnings press release. This call is scheduled to last until 3:00 p.m. Pacific Time. A replay of this call will be available later this afternoon on our website.

今天的演示和問答環節包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到風險和不確定性的影響，這些風險和不確定性已在我們的美國證券交易委員會公開文件中披露。更多資訊請參閱簡報中的配套幻燈片。除非另有說明，我們今天對財務表現的討論將以非GAAP財務報表為基礎。今天的盈利新聞稿中提供了 GAAP 和非 GAAP 結果之間的詳細調整表。本次通話預計持續到下午3點。太平洋時間。今天下午晚些時候，您可以在我們的網站上收聽本次電話會議的錄音。

With that, I will hand the call over to Tim.

接下來，我會把電話交給提姆。

Thanks, Tina, and welcome, everyone. In the December quarter, Lam delivered revenues and diluted earnings per share above the midpoint of guidance, marking another quarter of solid execution and closing out a year of strong performance in calendar 2019. Consistent with our comments throughout this year, we entered 2020 with increasing momentum and an improved spending mix environment, which we believe will lead to outperformance by Lam.

謝謝蒂娜，也歡迎各位。在 12 月季度，Lam 的收入和稀釋後每股收益均高於預期中位數，標誌著又一個季度業績穩健，並為 2019 年的強勁表現畫上了圓滿的句號。與我們今年以來的評論一致，我們以不斷增強的勢頭和改善的支出組合環境進入了 2020 年，我們相信這將使林氏取得優異的業績。

I have now completed my first year as CEO of Lam Research, and I am incredibly proud of what our people have achieved. Underpinning our strong financial results this past year has been a company-wide focus on execution and an emphasis on our culture where all employees can perform their best. I want to thank Lam's employees across our global organization for their efforts and, of course, our partners and customers for their valued support.

我擔任 Lam Research 執行長的第一年已經過去一年了，我為我們團隊的成就感到無比自豪。過去一年我們取得強勁的財務業績，得益於公司上下對執行力的重視以及對企業文化的強調，在這種文化中，所有員工都能發揮出最佳水平。我要感謝林氏集團全球員工的辛勤付出，當然也要感謝我們的合作夥伴和顧客的寶貴支持。

I also want to take a moment to address the coronavirus situation. Our concern, first and foremost, is with the health and well-being of our employees, customers and partners. And with this in mind, we have implemented precautionary measures within our global business operations. Additionally, we are donating to Chinese relief efforts to support the people and communities impacted by the coronavirus outbreak.

我還想花點時間談談新冠病毒疫情。我們最關心的始終是員工、顧客和合作夥伴的健康和福祉。考慮到這一點，我們已在全球業務運營中實施了預防措施。此外，我們也向中國對抗新冠疫情的救援工作捐款，以支持受疫情影響的人民和社區。

Now turning to our business results. In calendar 2019, we generated solid operating cash flows, and at the same time, we invested a company record in research and development dollars to fuel technology innovation and product differentiation. Our EPS performance, the second best in the company's 40-year history, was especially noteworthy given that memory spending declined significantly year-over-year in 2019. The impact of lower memory spending was partially mitigated by record revenue from our customer support business group, highlighting the importance of our recurring spares and service opportunity to the overall quality of earnings of the company.

現在來看我們的業務成果。2019 年，我們實現了穩健的營運現金流，同時，我們投入了創紀錄的研發資金，以推動技術創新和產品差異化。鑑於 2019 年內存支出較去年同期大幅下降，我們公司 40 年歷史上第二好的每股收益表現尤其值得關注。記憶體支出減少的影響被客戶支援業務集團創紀錄的收入部分抵消，這凸顯了我們經常性備件和服務機會對公司整體獲利品質的重要性。

In 2019, we also saw outstanding execution in our product organizations. We grew our revenue share of WFE spend in memory and foundry logic, and we laid the foundation for additional gains as we recorded our best ever performance in net penetration and defense application wins as measured by revenue potential over the next 3 years. We are winning by focusing on high-volume manufacturing solutions for emerging technology inflection challenges, including those associated with new scaling architectures, new memory technologies and new materials. We are capitalizing on the learning from our installed base of tools that today enable some of the industry's most critical etch and deposition applications.

2019年，我們的產品組織也展現了卓越的執行力。我們在記憶體和代工邏輯的 WFE 支出中提高了收入份額，並且在未來 3 年內，我們在淨滲透率和國防應用贏得方面取得了有史以來最好的業績（以收入潛力衡量），為進一步增長奠定了基礎。我們透過專注於為新興技術轉型挑戰提供大量製造解決方案而取得成功，這些挑戰包括與新的擴展架構、新的儲存技術和新材料相關的挑戰。我們正在充分利用從我們已安裝的工具中獲得的經驗，這些工具目前支援著業內一些最關鍵的蝕刻和沈積應用。

For example, for the 3 most critical applications in 3D NAND, our Strata, ALTUS and Flex tools, each process well over 1 million wafers per month in high-volume manufacturing, allowing us to partner early and in a unique way with our customers on next-generation needs. In 2019, this led to the addition of new products to our portfolio, such as the VECTOR DT, which is designed to address wafer stress problems encountered during the high-volume production of 3D NAND stacks of 96 layers and above.

例如，對於 3D NAND 的 3 個最關鍵的應用，我們的 Strata、ALTUS 和 Flex 工具，每個工具每月都能以大量生產的方式處理超過 100 萬片晶圓，這使我們能夠以獨特的方式儘早與客戶合作，滿足下一代需求。2019 年，這促使我們在產品組合中增加了新產品，例如 VECTOR DT，該產品旨在解決在 96 層及以上 3D NAND 堆疊的大規模生產過程中遇到的晶圓應力問題。

Similarly, we enhanced the capabilities of our Coronus product family to improve device yield at the wafer edge by depositing encapsulating layers for bevel protection. These products expand our served share of WFE spend but just as importantly, they exemplify our commitment to our customers' success.

同樣，我們透過沉積封裝層來保護晶圓邊緣，從而增強了 Coronus 產品系列的性能，提高了晶圓邊緣的裝置良率。這些產品擴大了我們在 WFE 支出中所佔的份額，但同樣重要的是，它們體現了我們對客戶成功的承諾。

In 2019, we improved to the #1 or #2 position at all of our largest customers that provide a competitive ranking of their suppliers based on detailed quality, support and performance scorecards. In part, this improvement is due to our investment in productivity-enhancing upgrades for our installed base. For instance, Corvus wafer edge solutions have become key differentiators for our conductor and dielectric etch systems in high-volume manufacturing and have been instrumental in helping our customers reduce cost of ownership.

2019 年，我們所有最大的客戶都根據詳細的品質、支援和績效評分卡對供應商進行競爭性排名，我們的排名均提升至第一或第二。部分原因是由於我們對已安裝設備進行了提高生產力的升級改造。例如，Corvus 晶圓邊緣解決方案已成為我們大批量生產中的導體和介質蝕刻系統的關鍵差異化因素，並有助於我們的客戶降低擁有成本。

We announced in 2019 a Corvus-enabled self-maintaining etch tool that ran for 1 year in high-volume manufacturing without human intervention. Multiple customers are now upgrading their installed base tools to include this high value-added capability.

我們在 2019 年發布了一款採用 Corvus 技術的自維護蝕刻工具，該工具在大批量生產中運行了 1 年而無需人工幹預。目前，許多客戶正在升級其已安裝的基礎工具，以包含這種高附加價值功能。

In 2019, we highlighted heterogeneous integration and advanced packaging as new areas of opportunity to leverage our product portfolio and 3D learning to drive growth. In the December quarter, we built on our growing momentum in this space with additional wins for our SABRE 3D electroplating system at multiple advanced packaging customers. With these latest wins, we estimate that we have gained more than 15 points of market share in the last 2 years, and we have firmly established ourselves as the technology leader in the increasingly important through silicon via market.

2019 年，我們專注於異質整合和先進封裝，將其視為利用我們的產品組合和 3D 學習來推動成長的新機會領域。在 12 月季度，我們憑藉 SABRE 3D 電鍍系統在多個先進封裝客戶中的更多成功案例，鞏固了我們在該領域的成長勢頭。憑藉這些最新的勝利，我們估計在過去的兩年裡，我們的市佔率增加了 15 個百分點以上，我們已經穩固地確立了自己在日益重要的矽通孔市場中的技術領先地位。

Another area of growth for the company has been in atomic layer deposition or ALD. Our ALD solutions are gaining significant traction in the market by delivering best-in-class film properties, along with high productivity and low defects. Due to the inherent advantages of higher film quality and conformity, our Striker ALD oxide systems are replacing older process alternatives, such as spin on dielectric and SACVD for critical applications, pulling more WFE spending into our served market. Similarly, RC scaling requirements are driving increased demand for our single-wafer Striker carbide and ALTUS ALD metallization systems. When used for low-k carbide liner spacer applications, our Striker system has been able to achieve 30% better RC properties versus competing batch tools.

該公司的另一個成長領域是原子層沉積（ALD）。我們的 ALD 解決方案憑藉一流的薄膜性能、高生產率和低缺陷率，在市場上獲得了顯著的關注。由於其具有更高的薄膜品質和一致性等固有優勢，我們的 Striker ALD 氧化物系統正在取代旋塗介電層和 SACVD 等較舊的製程替代方案，用於關鍵應用，從而將更多的 WFE 支出吸引到我們所服務的市場。同樣，RC 尺寸縮小的要求也推動了對我們單晶圓 Striker 碳化物和 ALTUS ALD 金屬化系統的需求增加。當用於低k硬質合金襯套墊片應用時，我們的Striker系統與競爭的批量刀具相比，其RC性能提高了30%。

For metallization, we closed out 2019 on a high note, with significant wins in logic foundry, for our ALTUS systems as customers look to replace the conventional barrier fill sequence with an integrated ALD approach to lower device resistance in a cost-effective way.

在金屬化方面，我們在 2019 年取得了不錯的成績，邏輯代工領域取得了重大勝利，我們的 ALTUS 系統贏得了客戶的青睞，因為客戶希望用集成 ALD 方法取代傳統的阻擋層填充序列，以經濟高效的方式降低裝置電阻。

Across all products, we exited 2019 with approximately 61,000 chambers in our installed base. Our installed base revenues grew year-over-year and reached record levels in 2019, with significant contribution from our Reliant business, which also reached record levels.

截至 2019 年底，我們所有產品的安裝量約為 61,000 個腔室。2019 年，我們的安裝基礎收入逐年增長，並達到創紀錄的水平，這主要得益於 Reliant 業務的顯著貢獻，該業務也達到了創紀錄的水平。

Productivity upgrades and solutions grew more than 30% year-over-year, as we have worked to help customers enhance the performance of their existing assets. Furthermore, we signed several new multiyear customer support contracts. These multiyear contracts enable Lam to significantly reduce customers' running costs, while generating a recurring revenue stream for Lam.

我們致力於協助客戶提升現有資產的效能，生產力提升和解決方案年增超過 30%。此外，我們也簽署了多份新的多年期客戶支援合約。這些多年合約使 Lam 能夠大幅降低客戶的營運成本，同時為 Lam 創造持續的收入來源。

Now turning to WFE. We estimate 2019 WFE ended in the $46 billion to $47 billion range, slightly higher than our prior mid-$40 billion estimate. The increase was driven predominantly by higher foundry logic spending. For calendar 2020, assuming no material impact from coronavirus on our full year outlook, our view calls for WFE spend in the mid- to high $50 billion range, supported by sustained strong spending in Foundry and Logic, and significantly for Lam, improved spending in memory led first by NAND. Overall, we expect spending in Memory and Foundry logic segments to be up year-on-year in 2020.

現在轉向WFE。我們估計 2019 年世界財政收入在 460 億美元至 470 億美元之間，略高於我們先前約 400 億美元的估計。這一增長主要是由於代工廠邏輯裝置支出增加所致。對於 2020 年日曆年，假設冠狀病毒不會對我們的全年展望產生實質性影響，我們認為 WFE 支出將在 500 億美元中高段位，這得益於晶圓代工和邏輯芯片領域持續強勁的支出，以及對 Lam 而言尤為重要的，存儲器領域的閃存支出的支出增加，其中 NAND 的支出尤為突出。總體而言，我們預計 2020 年記憶體和代工邏輯領域的支出將年增。

To wrap up, Lam delivered strong financial performance in calendar 2019. And as our March quarter guidance suggests, we're in a great position to drive higher in 2020 with the improvement in Memory spending. Lam's product pipeline is very strong, with more innovation on the way, and we look forward to sharing more with you at our upcoming Investor Day on March 3.

綜上所述，林氏集團在 2019 年取得了強勁的財務表現。正如我們三月季度的業績指引所示，隨著記憶體支出的改善，我們處於非常有利的位置，預計在 2020 年實現更高的業績。Lam 的產品線非常強大，未來還將有更多創新產品問世，我們期待在 3 月 3 日即將舉行的投資者日上與您分享更多資訊。

Thanks. And now here's Doug.

謝謝。現在請道格上場。

Great. Thank you, Tim. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today in the middle of what I know is a very busy earnings season.

偉大的。謝謝你，提姆。各位下午好，感謝大家在今天這個繁忙的財報季期間抽出時間參加我們的節目。

We concluded calendar year 2019 with a strong December quarterly performance. Results ended up better than we expected, primarily due to a little bit stronger NAND investment as well as an uptick in our installed base business. Our installed base business delivered another record year and continued to be a stable profitable business for us. And as Tim mentioned, from an earnings per share perspective, it was the second best year in our 40-year history.

我們在2019年12月季度業績表現強勁，為這一年畫上了圓滿的句號。最終結果比我們預期的要好，這主要歸功於我們加大了對 NAND 的投資，以及我們已安裝業務基礎的成長。我們的裝機量業務又創下了歷史新高，並持續為我們帶來穩定的獲利。正如蒂姆所提到的那樣，從每股收益的角度來看，這是我們40年歷史上第二好的一年。

The December quarter results came in over the midpoint of guidance for all financial metrics, with diluted earnings per share essentially at the high end of our guidance range. As Tim also noted, we're pleased with our performance in calendar year 2019 and we delivered solid profitability levels within a challenging memory environment.

12 月季度業績在所有財務指標上均超過了預期範圍的中位數，稀釋後每股收益基本上達到預期範圍的高端。正如蒂姆也指出的那樣，我們對 2019 年的業績感到滿意，並在充滿挑戰的內存市場環境中實現了穩健的盈利水平。

As we discussed at our earnings call last quarter, there were continued strong investments in the Foundry and Logic segments in the December quarter. We had the highest system revenue dollars for the Foundry segment in our history, and the revenue concentration was at its highest level since the September 2016 quarter. Foundry spending continued its focus on the 7- and 5-nanometer nodes and it represented 36% of our December quarter system revenue.

正如我們在上個季度財報電話會議上所討論的那樣，12 月季度我們在晶圓代工和邏輯電路領域繼續進行了強有力的投資。我們鑄造業務部門的系統收入達到了歷史最高水平，收入集中度也達到了自 2016 年 9 月季度以來的最高水平。晶圓代工支出持續集中在 7 奈米和 5 奈米節點，占我們 12 月季度系統收入的 36%。

The Logic and Other segment grew in dollar terms and was essentially flat with the prior quarter intensity level coming in at 12% of system revenues. It was the highest Logic and Other revenue level in dollar terms in 2 years, driven by 10-nanometer, image sensors and other specialty markets.

邏輯和其他業務板塊以美元計算有所增長，與上一季的強度水平基本持平，佔系統收入的 12%。以美元計，這是 2 年來邏輯和其他業務收入的最高水平，主要得益於 10 奈米製程、影像感測器和其他專業市場的成長。

For Memory, the combined segment decreased to 52% of system revenues from the September quarter, which was at 64%. We had a decrease in the December quarter in the nonvolatile memory segment going from 38% to 35%. Quoted from a dollar perspective, revenue in the segment actually increased.

就記憶體業務而言，合併後的業務收入佔系統總收入的比例從 9 月的 64% 下降到 52%。在 12 月的季度中，非揮發性記憶體領域的銷售額從 38% 下降到 35%。以美元計價，該業務板塊的收入實際上有所增長。

The DRAM segment decreased from 26% to 17% of system revenue. NAND investment continues to be focused on 64-, 96- and initial 128-layer devices. And DRAM spending continues to be primarily focused on node transitions.

DRAM業務在系統收入的比例從26%下降到17%。NAND 投資繼續集中在 64 層、96 層和最初的 128 層裝置上。DRAM 支出仍主要集中在節點過渡。

Revenues for the quarter were $2.584 billion, which was above the midpoint. In addition to the leading edge foundry and logic strength I mentioned, we saw continued investments in the China region, with the majority, again, coming from domestic Chinese customers. China geographic revenue came in at 29% of total revenue in December.

本季營收為 25.84 億美元，高於預期中位數。除了我提到的領先的晶圓代工和邏輯實力之外，我們還看到對中國地區的持續投資，其中大部分投資仍然來自中國國內客戶。12 月份，中國地區的收入佔總收入的 29%。

Gross margin came in at 45.7%, 70 basis points above the midpoint. Strength in the December quarter gross margin is related to customer and product mix as well as increased factory utilization levels relative to the prior quarter.

毛利率為 45.7%，比中間值高出 70 個基點。12 月季度毛利率的強勁成長與客戶和產品組合以及工廠利用率較上一季的提高有關。

I'll remind you, as I always do, that actual gross margins are a function of several factors such as business volumes, product mix and customer concentration, and you should expect to see some variability quarter-to-quarter.

我會像往常一樣提醒大家，實際毛利率取決於多種因素，例如業務量、產品組合和客戶集中度，因此您應該預料到季度之間會有一些波動。

Operating expenses for the December quarter came in at $481 million. Our variable compensation spending was higher in the quarter as it's tied to the increased level of profitability. Spending in the December quarter also increased due to the appreciation of the market during the quarter and the resulting impact on the cost of our deferred compensation plan.

12 月季度的營運支出為 4.81 億美元。本季我們的可變薪酬支出較高，因為它與盈利能力的提高掛鉤。由於該季度市場升值，導致我們的遞延薪資計畫成本增加，因此 12 月的支出也有所增加。

As I've mentioned in the past, we do hedge this to mitigate the exposure to the income statement. However, because of the accounting rules, the offset to this expense shows up in other income and expense. It's basically a neutral impact to earnings per share at the end of the day.

正如我之前提到的，我們會進行避險以降低損益表的風險。但是，由於會計準則的規定，這筆費用的抵銷會出現在其他收入和支出中。整體而言，這對每股盈餘的影響基本上是中性。

We continue to invest in our critical research and development programs, and you'll hear more about our commitment to technology and productivity leadership at our upcoming Investors Day in March.

我們將繼續投資關鍵的研發項目，您將在即將於三月舉行的投資者日上聽到更多關於我們對技術和生產力領先地位的承諾。

I'd also remind you that as we look ahead to the 2020 calendar year, we'll see the normal seasonal spending increases related to the March quarter.

我還要提醒各位，展望 2020 年，我們將看到與三月季度相關的正常季節性支出成長。

Operating income in the December quarter was $700 million and operating margin was 27.1%, essentially at the midpoint of guidance. Our non-GAAP tax rate in the quarter was 12.5%.

12 月季度的營業收入為 7 億美元，營業利益率為 27.1%，基本上達到預期目標的中點。本季我們的非GAAP稅率為12.5%。

I would like to highlight that the difference between the non-GAAP tax rate and the December quarter GAAP tax rate, which was 23.5%, was related to the reversal of the tax benefit from the Altera stock-based compensation case. I think you're seeing this from lots of companies in the technology space. You should expect the fluctuations in the tax rate will occur quarter-to-quarter. And as we look into the rate for the calendar year 2020, I expect it to be in the low-teens level.

我想強調的是，非GAAP稅率與12月季度GAAP稅率（23.5%）之間的差異，與Altera股票選擇權補償案中的稅收優惠的逆轉有關。我認為你在科技領域的許多公司都能看到這種情況。稅率的波動預計會按季度發生。展望 2020 年全年，我預計成長率將在 10% 左右。

Other income expense was up slightly from the prior quarter at a total of approximately $13 million in expense. The main components of OI&E are interest income from our cash and investment balances offset by interest expense related to the outstanding debt. You should expect that other income and expense will fluctuate quarter-to-quarter based on several market-related items, things like foreign exchange or what I'm talking about.

其他收入支出較上一季略有增加，總支出約 1,300 萬美元。OI&E 的主要組成部分是現金和投資餘額產生的利息收入減去與未償債務相關的利息支出。你應該預料到，其他收入和支出會根據一些市場相關因素（例如外匯或我剛才提到的那些因素）而逐季度波動。

Moving on to capital return. For the December quarter, a $167 million of cash was deployed in dividends and $1 billion in share repurchase. As we've frequently done in the past, the share repurchases were done through a structured share repurchase program that cover repurchases through the June 2020 quarter. We remain on track with our commitment to capital return.

接下來討論資本回報。在 12 月季度，該公司將 1.67 億美元現金用於派發股息，並將 10 億美元用於股票回購。正如我們過去經常做的那樣，股票回購是透過結構化的股票回購計劃進行的，該計劃涵蓋了截至 2020 年 6 月季度的回購。我們仍將按計劃實現資本回報目標。

For calendar year 2019, we completed $3 billion of our current $5 billion buyback authorization. In total, our capital return activities represented approximately 158% of free cash flow in 2019.

2019 年，我們完成了目前 50 億美元股票回購授權中的 30 億美元。2019 年，我們的資本回報活動總計約佔自由現金流的 158%。

Diluted earnings per share was $4.01. Our diluted shares continue to decline, and we ended the December quarter with diluted shares at approximately 150 million shares. This is the eighth consecutive quarter where our diluted share count has declined. The share count includes a dilutive impact of approximately 5 million shares from the 2041 convertible notes. And I'll remind you that the dilution schedule for the 2041 converts is available on our IR website for your reference.

稀釋後每股收益為 4.01 美元。我們的稀釋後股份持續下降，截至 12 月季度末，稀釋後股份約為 1.5 億股。這是我們的稀釋後股份數量連續第八個季度下降。股份數量包括 2041 年可轉換債券帶來的約 500 萬股的稀釋影響。我還要提醒各位，2041 年轉換股票的稀釋計畫已發佈在我們的投資者關係網站上，供您參考。

Let me now move to the balance sheet. Our cash and short-term investments, including restricted cash, decreased in the December quarter to $4.9 billion from $5.8 billion in the September quarter. The decrease quarter-to-quarter was due to the share repurchase and dividend activity, offset by cash flows from operations of $308 million.

現在讓我來看資產負債表。我們的現金和短期投資（包括受限現金）在 12 月季度從 9 月季度的 58 億美元減少到 49 億美元。季度環比下降是由於股票回購和分紅活動，但被 3.08 億美元的營運活動現金流所抵消。

And as I've mentioned before, when you see business levels grow, working capital levels generally increase, which impacted our cash flow from operations in December. We concluded calendar year 2019 with the second highest level of free cash flow in the company's history at over $2.3 billion. I believe this truly demonstrates the sustainability of our business through a lower industry spend period.

正如我之前提到的，當業務水準成長時，營運資金水準通常也會增加，這影響了我們 12 月的營運現金流。2019 年，公司自由現金流達到 23 億美元以上，創下公司歷史第二高水準。我相信這確實反映了我們業務在較低產業支出週期內的可持續性。

DSO increased slightly due to the timing of collections to 72 days versus 69 days in the prior quarter. Inventory turns improved to 3.7 turns from 3.2 in the September quarter. Both receivables and inventory grew in dollars during December as business levels increased.

由於收款時間調整，應收帳款週轉天數略有增加，從上一季的 69 天增加到 72 天。庫存週轉率從9月的3.2次提高到3.7次。12 月份，隨著業務量的成長，應收帳款和庫存的美元金額均增加。

Noncash expenses included approximately $46 million for equity compensation, $49 million for depreciation and $17 million for amortization. December quarter capital expenditures increased to $62 million from $39 million in the September quarter. Ending headcount as of the December quarter was flat with the prior quarter at approximately 10,700 regular full-time employees. We expect that as revenue levels are growing, we'll add headcount to support the increasing business.

非現金支出包括約 4,600 萬美元的股權補償、4,900 萬美元的折舊和 1,700 萬美元的攤銷。12 月季度資本支出從 9 月季度的 3,900 萬美元增加到 6,200 萬美元。截至 12 月季度末，員工總數與上一季持平，約有 10,700 名正式全職員工。我們預計隨著收入水準的成長，我們將增加員工人數以支持不斷成長的業務。

So now looking ahead, I'd like to provide our non-GAAP guidance for the March 2020 quarter. We're expecting revenue of $2.800 billion, plus or minus $200 million; gross margin of 46.5%, plus or minus 1 percentage point; operating margins of 28%, plus or minus 1 percentage point; and finally, earnings per share of $4.55, plus or minus $0.40 based on a share count of approximately 149 million shares.

展望未來，我想提供我們 2020 年 3 月季度的非 GAAP 業績指引。我們預計營收為 28 億美元，上下浮動 2 億美元；毛利率為 46.5%，上下浮動 1 個百分點；營業利潤率為 28%，上下浮動 1 個百分點；最後，每股收益為 4.55 美元，上下浮動 0.40 美元（基於約 1.49 億股的股份數量）。

We see continued strength in Foundry and Logic spending going into the March quarter. And additionally, we see NAND spending continue to increase going into 2020. The March quarter guidance reflects our current view of the business environment, including our assessment with the potential impact from the public health situation in China. We see business disruptions potentially with both customers and suppliers, that are essentially extending the Lunar New Year holiday through February 9. Absent this situation, our numbers would have been somewhat higher.

我們看到，在三月的季度中，Foundry 和 Logic 的支出將繼續保持強勁勢頭。此外，我們預計 NAND 快閃記憶體的支出將在 2020 年繼續成長。三月季度業績指引反映了我們目前對商業環境的看法，包括我們對中國公共衛生狀況可能產生的影響的評估。我們預期客戶和供應商的業務都可能受到影響，這實際上將農曆新年假期延長至2月9日。如果沒有這種情況，我們的業績數字會更高一些。

We also increased the revenue and EPS ranges to take into consideration the uncertainty of the impact from these activities. We believe this is temporary, but the issue is developing day by day. I think we're taking a prudent approach to what we're doing with the numbers.

我們也提高了收入和每股盈餘預期範圍，以考慮這些活動影響的不確定性。我們認為這只是暫時的，但問題正在日益惡化。我認為我們處理這些數據的方式是謹慎的。

So to conclude, we're well positioned heading into 2020. We're on a strong trajectory to outperform based on our product portfolio as well as operational strategies. And that concludes my prepared remarks.

總之，我們已經為迎接2020年做好了充分準備。憑藉我們的產品組合和營運策略，我們正朝著超越競爭對手的強勁發展軌跡邁進。我的發言稿到此結束。

Operator, Tim and I would now like to open up the call for questions.

接線員蒂姆和我現在想開始接受提問。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question will come from John Pitzer with Crédit Suisse.

（操作說明）我們的第一個問題來自瑞士信貸的約翰‧皮策。

My first question just is going to focus in on the domestic China market. Doug, you were kind enough to tell us it was the majority of the China business in the December quarter. I'm wondering if you can help us understand how much of a majority it was. And what was the split between sort of Memory and Logic? And then as you look out to your WFE forecast growth of at least 20% in calendar year '20, how important is the domestic China market? And how should we think about the Memory versus sort of the logic foundry side of that?

我的第一個問題將重點放在中國國內市場。道格，你好心告訴我們，這佔了12月份中國業務的大部分。我想知道您能否幫我們了解一下，這個比例究竟有多高。記憶和邏輯的差別是什麼？那麼，考慮到 WFE 在 2020 年的預測成長率至少為 20%，中國國內市場的重要性究竟有多大？那我們該如何看待記憶體與邏輯電路之間的關係呢？

Yes, I'll answer and then I'll let Tim add on. Yes, John, I'm not going to get into the habit every quarter of giving a precise quantification except to tell you, the majority in the December quarter was from domestic China. And that's been the case the last couple of quarters. And the reason I've been mentioning that over the last couple of quarters is it's different than the last several years have been where the majority has actually come from the global multinationals.

好的，我先回答，然後讓提姆補充。是的，約翰，我不會養成每季都給出精確量化數據的習慣，但我可以告訴你，12 月的大部分收入來自中國國內。過去幾季一直都是這種情況。我之所以在過去幾季反覆提到這一點，是因為這與過去幾年的情況不同，過去幾年大部分資金實際上來自全球跨國公司。

Then your question relative to how we're looking into 2020 in China. I think 2019 probably finished with WFE from the local China customers a little bit above $6 billion, something like that, and it's growing in 2020. And as we look into 2020, I think, John, probably it's up $2 billion to $3 billion is my best guess from local China. And that spending is broad-based. It's NAND, it's DRAM, it's Foundry and Logic. So it's not one or the other, it's a broad-based set of customer spending. Tim, you want to add anything?

那麼，關於您提出的關於我們如何看待中國2020年的問題。我認為 2019 年中國本土客戶的 WFE 銷售額可能略高於 60 億美元，大概是這個數字， 2020 年還在成長。展望 2020 年，約翰，我認為，根據中國當地的數據，我的最佳估計是成長 20 億至 30 億美元。而且這種支出涉及面很廣。它是NAND快閃記憶體，它是DRAM，它是晶圓代工和邏輯電路。所以這不是二選一的問題，而是一系列廣泛的客戶支出。提姆，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

No, I think that pretty much covers it.

不，我覺得差不多就這些了。

And then guys as my follow-on, just on WFE and kind of your share, Tim, as you talked about in your prepared comments, you've done a nice job kind of gaining your share of WFE. Is 2020 a year where that becomes a little bit more difficult with sort of the addition of EUV? Or how important is the EUV to your growth projections this year? And as we think about EUV deployment, is that a good leading indicator for your future business? Or how should we think about that?

然後，各位，作為我的後續問題，就WFE而言，蒂姆，正如你在準備好的評論中所說，你做得很好，獲得了你在WFE中的份額。2020 年，隨著 EUV 技術的加入，這種情況是否會變得更加困難？或者說，EUV對您今年的成長預測有多重要？當我們考慮 EUV 部署時，這是否是您未來業務的一個良好先行指標？我們該如何看待這個問題？

Well, yes, I think that we've talked about EUV a number of times. And so I guess, maybe I'll just repeat a few of the things I've said and maybe add a couple of comments. In general, what we've said is that technology transitions themselves are very good for Lam. We have highlighted a number of times that Lam's served market actually grows at each technology node within foundry logic, even with the introduction of EUV. So really, what we want is we want the market and our customers to be able to keep moving their technologies forward.

是的，我想我們已經多次討論過極紫外光刻技術了。所以我想，我可能只會重複我之前說過的一些話，並補充一些評論。總的來說，我們所說的是，技術轉型本身對林來說非常有利。我們已經多次強調，即使引入了 EUV 技術，Lam 的服務市場實際上也在代工邏輯的每個技術節點上不斷成長。所以，我們真正想要的是，我們希望市場和我們的客戶能夠持續推動他們的技術發展。

Specific to patterning, as you move from, say, 7- to 5-nanometer, even in the case of EUV, what you're starting to see is the increased use of more high-quality hard masks moving away from spin on dielectric towards deposition methods like PECVD, where Lam has a very strong position. And so in many cases, our SAM is actually increasing because we're pulling in applications that before were actually done with older processes and now they're coming into our more critical space. And so with that, we see SAM increase. And therefore, even with EUV, we see a growing market for ourselves. Doug talked about highest dollars from foundry logic. And that's just, I think, further evidence because we're seeing technology investments right now at those EUV nodes.

具體到圖案化方面，例如，當從 7 奈米到 5 奈米時，即使是 EUV，你也會開始看到更多地使用高品質的硬掩模，而不是旋塗介電層，而是轉向 PECVD 等沉積方法，而 Lam 在這些方法中佔據著非常強大的地位。因此，在許多情況下，我們的 SAM 實際上正在增​​加，因為我們正在引入以前使用舊流程完成的應用程序，現在它們正在進入我們更關鍵的領域。因此，我們看到 SAM 增加。因此，即使採用 EUV 技術，我們也看到了自身市場的成長潛力。Doug 談到了代工邏輯中最高的收入。我認為這進一步證明了這一點，因為我們現在正在看到 EUV 節點的技術投資。

Now as far as the leading indicator, sure, what we said is that EUV is, obviously, those shipments are signs of these more complex technology nodes and again, our SAM grows where opportunity grows.

至於領先指標，當然，我們說過 EUV 的出貨量顯然是這些更複雜技術節點的標誌，而且，我們的 SAM 也隨著機會的成長而成長。

And then, John, the only thing I would add, as you think about wallet share of WFE going into 2020, I think, you know our SAM and share in our NAND is very good. And clearly, 2020, our view is going to be a stronger investment period for the NAND industry as we've seen kind of pricing and profitability stabilize. So our share of wallet, actually, in addition to the EUV commentary, Tim had, is actually going to have a tailwind from the fact that NAND spending, I think, will be stronger I would say.

然後，約翰，我唯一要補充的是，當你考慮 WFE 在 2020 年的錢包份額時，我想，你知道我們的 SAM 和 NAND 份額都非常好。顯然，我們認為 2020 年將是 NAND 產業更強勁的投資時期，因為我們已經看到價格和獲利能力趨於穩定。所以，除了蒂姆對 EUV 的評論之外，我們的市場份額實際上還會受益於 NAND 支出的強勁增長，我認為 NAND 支出將會更加強勁。

Our next question comes from C.J. Muse with Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 公司的 C.J. Muse。

I guess, first question on WFE. If you think about the roughly $8 billion to $10 billion increase year-on-year into 2020, can you tell us how much of that is Memory versus foundry logic? Is that kind of a 80-20 split? And then as part of that, are you including the material uplift in DRAM within that? Or is that something that could be a source of further upside?

我想，關於WFE的第一個問題。如果考慮到 2020 年每年大約成長 80 億至 100 億美元，你能告訴我們其中有多少是記憶體，又有多少是代工邏輯晶片嗎？這算是80/20的比例嗎？那麼，作為其中的一部分，您是否將DRAM的材料提升也包含在內呢？或者，這是否可能成為進一步上漲的來源？

Okay. Great. C.J. great question. I don't think we're going to give you the exact breakout, but I think we've characterized it as -- I think maybe you can look back to what we said as we were exiting last year. What we said was that we were seeing very strong spending in foundry logic, and that we were just starting to see the early signs of improvement in NAND, and we felt that DRAM would come after the NAND market had improved. And so I think what you're seeing in our outlook for 2020 is that starting to play out, except for, again, sustained strong spending in Foundry and Logic. So maybe the emphasis on sustained and a strong uptick in NAND spending, which, as Doug just commented, is a significant tailwind for us in terms of our SAM as a percent of WFE.

好的。偉大的。C.J.問得好。我認為我們不會給出確切的細分數據，但我認為我們已經將其描述為——我想也許你可以回顧一下我們去年退出時所說的話。我們當時所說的是，我們看到晶圓代工邏輯領域的支出非常強勁，NAND 領域也開始出現改善的早期跡象，我們認為 DRAM 會在 NAND 市場改善之後才會出現。所以我認為，從我們對 2020 年的展望中可以看出，這種情況開始逐漸顯現，但 Foundry 和 Logic 領域的持續強勁支出除外。因此，或許重點在於持續強勁地增加 NAND 支出，正如 Doug 剛才評論的那樣，這對我們來說是一個重要的順風，可以提高我們的 SAM 佔 WFE 的百分比。

Relative to DRAM, I think we characterized last year primarily as a technology investment year with very little capacity additions. And I would say that, in general, our outlook this year is that, that doesn't change much, at least until it's later in the year. So I'd say primarily sustained strong Foundry and Logic spending -- Foundry and Logic and a strong uptick in NAND.

就DRAM而言，我認為去年主要是一個技術投資年，產能成長非常有限。總的來說，我認為我們今年的前景不會有太大變化，至少在今年晚些時候之前不會。所以我認為主要是晶圓代工和邏輯晶片支出持續強勁增長——晶圓代工和邏輯晶片支出以及 NAND 快閃記憶體的強勁增長。

Great. And as a follow-up question on the service side. Thank you for providing the installed base numbers. Very helpful. So up, I think, 12% in calendar '18, up 9% in calendar '19. Can you help us kind of think about what the growth rate for service could look like? And is it fair to say that service in 2019 reached roughly mid-30s of total revenues?

偉大的。關於服務方面，還有一個後續問題。感謝您提供安裝基數資料。很有幫助。所以，我認為，2018 年曆年成長了 12%，2019 年曆年成長了 9%。您能否幫我們大致思考一下服務業的成長率會是什麼樣的？2019 年服務收入是否約佔總收入的 30% 左右？

So I'll take the last one. It wasn't quite that high, C.J., but it was comfortably above 30% in 2019. I'll give you that much.

那我選最後一個吧。C.J.，雖然沒有那麼高，但2019年也輕鬆超過了30%。我就給你這麼多。

Yes. We're -- I think that we're very confident. We've said that because of the growing installed base, the overall customer support business grows every year. How it grows each year, I've talked a little bit about the dynamic where depending on where you are in kind of utilization and spending and customers will spend on different things. I highlighted a very strong year for us in 2019 on productivity upgrades, which is one of the things customers do when they're looking to squeeze a little bit more out of the assets they already have in their fabs, and we saw a lot of that last year. I think that as you transition now to a very busy year and customers ramping aggressively, then you'll find yourself much more in these spares and some of the value-added services part. But in general, given the dynamics of that market and our product portfolio, we feel very confident about its ability to grow year-on-year with the installed base.

是的。我們——我認為我們非常有信心。我們說過，由於用戶基數不斷成長，客戶支援業務整體也逐年成長。它每年是如何成長的，我已經稍微談到了這種動態，這取決於你所處的利用率和支出水平，客戶會在不同的東西上花錢。我重點介紹了我們在 2019 年取得的非常強勁的生產力提升業績，這是客戶在希望從其晶圓廠現有資產中榨取更多價值時所採取的措施之一，而我們去年就看到了很多這樣的案例。我認為，隨著您即將進入非常繁忙的一年，客戶數量也將大幅增長，那麼您將會在備件和一些加值服務方面投入更多精力。但總的來說，考慮到該市場的動態和我們的產品組合，我們對它能夠隨著現有用戶群的增加而逐年增長的能力非常有信心。

Our next question comes from Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的哈蘭‧蘇爾。

Good job on the solid business execution. With the complexity of the manufacturing process, combined with tighter specifications, maybe longer install and qual times, on average, from the time that you ship a tool to the time that, that tool is put into full volume production, I think greenfield is around 6 months. Is this lead time around the same time for conversion and incremental capacity expansion? And the reason why I ask is, I just want to do a sanity check that for some of the memory shipment goodness that you're seeing hopefully, this is going to be layering on the in sync with the demand pull for memory, which is typically more kind of middle to kind of second half of the year weighted?

商業執行方面做得很好。由於製造流程的複雜性，加上更嚴格的規格，以及可能更長的安裝和驗證時間，平均而言，從您發貨到該工具投入全面批量生產，我認為全新項目大約需要 6 個月。這種轉換和增量產能擴張的提前期是否大致相同？我這麼問的原因是，我想確認一下，你們看到的內存出貨量增長是否與內存需求的增長同步，而內存需求的增長通常更多地集中在年中或下半年？

I don't think we've really broken it out. In fact, I don't know that I could even really speak to a material difference in lead times. I guess, if I caught your question, it was -- does a conversion have approximately the same lead time for the upgrade to take place and the product to be qual-ed. And if that was the question, I would say that they're not dramatically different in terms of the cycle time.

我認為我們還沒有真正解決這個問題。事實上，我甚至不確定我是否真的能就交貨時間上的實質差異發表意見。我猜，如果我理解你的問題沒錯的話，那就是－－從升級到產品通過認證，轉換過程的準備時間是否大致相同。如果這個問題是針對週期時間而言的，我會說它們之間並沒有太大的差異。

Yes. And Harlan, maybe I'm guessing what your question might be. I mean, when we look at the way spending occurred in the second half of '19 in NAND, and I'll remind you, we've been saying this for a while. We exited the year, we believe the industry supply growth 30% year-on-year. Based on the investments we saw occurring in the second half of '19, we believe that rate will decline, supply growth will decline into the first half of '20, right? And so you're starting to see an uptick in investment that will have a lag effect to it, and it won't immediately be producing output. I think that's inherently what you're asking, right?

是的。哈蘭，也許我猜錯了你的問題。我的意思是，當我們檢視 2019 年下半年 NAND 的支出狀況時，我提醒你，我們已經說過一段時間了。年底，我們認為產業供應年增了 30%。根據我們在 2019 年下半年看到的投資情況，我們認為這一比例將會下降，供應成長將在 2020 年上半年下降，對嗎？因此，你會看到投資開始回升，但這會產生滯後效應，不會立即產生產出。我覺得這其實就是你想問的，對吧？

Exactly. That's exactly right. And I appreciate the response. And actually, as a follow on to that. So you guys had anticipated NAND bit supply growth exiting 2019 around 30% below the demand rate. I think some of your customers in DRAM were saying bit supply kind of low to mid-teens, again, below kind of the demand rate. So given the improving fundamentals in memory this year, kind of extrapolating from your customer equipment requirements this year, how do you guys see bit supply growth in NAND and DRAM this year from kind of the depressed levels exiting last year?

確切地。完全正確。感謝您的回覆。事實上，這是後續發展。所以你們之前預計，2019 年底 NAND 位元供應成長將比需求成長低約 30%。我認為你們的一些DRAM客戶反映，比特供應量偏低，只有十幾比特，再次低於需求量。鑑於今年記憶體基本面的改善，並根據您客戶今年的設備需求進行推斷，您認為今年 NAND 和 DRAM 的位元供應量將如何從去年的低迷水平中恢復過來？

Yes. So you've got it exactly right what we said. We exited the year well below the long-term demand trend. And actually, even with the guidance we've just given, we actually see ourselves under growing long-term demand this year in terms of bit supply growth, both in NAND and in DRAM.

是的。所以你完全理解了我們說的意思。今年年底，我們的需求遠低於長期趨勢水準。事實上，即使按照我們剛才給出的指導，我們今年在 NAND 和 DRAM 的位元供應成長方面，實際上也看到了長期需求的成長。

Our next question will come from Atif Malik with Citi.

下一個問題將來自花旗銀行的阿提夫·馬利克。

Good job on results and guide. If I look at your top line growth historically, you outperformed WFE by 2x or so. How should we think about your top line growth relative to WFE for this year?

結果和指南都做得很好。從歷史營收成長來看，你的表現比 WFE 高出約 2 倍。我們該如何看待貴公司今年相對於WFE的營收成長？

Atif, the color I'd give you is, again, what I've already said is, I think it's an uptick in NAND investment. Our SAM in NAND is really strong. Our share in NAND is really strong. And so to the extent that NAND is driving an uptick in WFE, Lam will do really well. And you've seen that over the years, in times when memory is spending more, we do real well; and when it's going the other way, we do less well. You should expect the same thing. I'm not going to quantify it for you, whether history is a good indicator. I'm not completely sure. But I'll be very disappointed if we don't outperform this year.

Atif，我給你的答案是，正如我之前所說，我認為這是 NAND 投資增加的表現。我們的NAND快閃記憶體SAM非常強大。我們在NAND領域的份額非常可觀。因此，如果 NAND 能夠推動 WFE 的成長，那麼 Lam 將會表現出色。多年來，你已經看到，當記憶力消耗更多時，我們表現得非常好；而當記憶力下降時，我們表現得就不太好。你也應該預料到這種情況。我不會為你量化分析歷史是否是一個很好的指標。我不太確定。但如果我們今年的表現沒有超乎預期，我會非常失望。

Very helpful, Doug. And as a follow-up, your WFE number for this year is even bigger than what we were thinking, $55 billion. Can you just talk about the opportunity in image sensor, advanced packaging, things like that? I mean how big that number is in your WFE number for this year?

道格，你真是幫了大忙。另外，你們今年的WFE數字甚至比我們預想的還要高，達到了550億美元。您能談談影像感測器、先進封裝等領域的機會嗎？我的意思是，這個數字在你們今年的WFE數據中佔多大比例？

Yes, we put that in our Logic and Other space. And what Tim indicated, as we expect Foundry and Logic to grow 19% to 20%. And I don't know the exact image sensor number, so I can't answer your exact question. It's a secular grower for sure. But in the grand scheme of how big Foundry and Logic is, it's actually not all that big, but it is something we do really, really well in terms of the TSV aspect of image sensors.

是的，我們把它放在了「邏輯和其他」欄位裡。正如 Tim 所指出的那樣，我們預計 Foundry 和 Logic 將成長 19% 至 20%。我不知道影像感測器的確切編號，所以無法回答您的特定問題。它肯定是一個世俗的種植者。但從 Foundry and Logic 的整體規模來看，它實際上並不算大，但我們在影像感測器的 TSV 方面做得非常出色。

Yes. All I would add is one of the reasons you've heard us talk a lot more about specialty technologies and some of the products that we introduced in 2019, really focusing on heterogeneous integration and advanced packaging and MRAM and the image sensors is because many of those items are somewhat growing year-by-year from applications that are a little bit decoupled from the larger WFE cycle. And so again, even last year as WFE was down, we were setting records and what we kind of refer to as our specialty technologies business, which is primarily served by the Reliant tools. And so, yes, I think you can continue to see us focus in those areas because they are places where our technology plays very well. And as Doug said, we can -- by bringing the right technology and cost point, we can really gain quite a large portion of that market.

是的。我只想補充一點，你們之所以經常聽到我們談論專業技術以及我們在 2019 年推出的一些產品，特別是異構集成、先進封裝、MRAM 和圖像傳感器，是因為這些產品中的許多應用都與更大的 WFE 週期略有脫鉤，並且這些應用正逐年增長。所以，即使去年 WFE 業務下滑，我們仍然創造了記錄，我們稱之為專業技術業務的業務主要由 Reliant 工具提供服務。所以，是的，我認為你會看到我們繼續專注於這些領域，因為我們的技術在這些領域中發揮了非常好的作用。正如道格所說，透過引入合適的技術和成本優勢，我們確實可以贏得相當大的市場份額。

Our next question will come from Vivek Arya with Bank of America Securities.

下一個問題將來自美國銀行證券的維韋克·阿亞。

And congratulations on the strong and consistent execution. I have 2 questions as well. The first one, I'm curious what goes into your WFE calculation just because it's such a strong outlook for this year? Is it orders? Is it Capex? Is it memory pricing assumption, I'm just curious what goes into it? Then as part of that, if you could also give us some color on how you think the shape of WFE looks like first half versus second half?

祝賀你們出色且始終如一的執行力。我也有兩個問題。首先，我很好奇你們的WFE計算方法是什麼，因為今年的前景非常樂觀？這是命令嗎？這是資本支出嗎？這是記憶體定價假設嗎？我只是好奇其中的考量因素。那麼，作為其中的一部分，您能否也為我們描述一下您認為 WFE 前半部和後半部的形狀有何不同？

Yes. I'll go through it, and then I'm sure Tim will have comments on that. I mean, we go after this in a couple of different ways. We talk to customers, first and foremost. Customers tell us, here's our plan, here's what we think we're going to do kind of customer by customer, fab by fab. So that's the bottoms-up approach to it. It doesn't mean it's exactly precisely correct, it changes. Customers' plans can change, but that's one aspect of how we come at it.

是的。我會仔細閱讀一遍，然後我相信蒂姆會對此發表意見。我的意思是，我們可以從幾個不同的角度來解決這個問題。我們先與客戶溝通。客戶告訴我們，這是我們的計劃，這是我們打算做的，一個客戶一個客戶地做，一個工廠一個工廠地做。這就是自下而上的方法。這並不意味著它完全正確，它會隨著時間而改變。客戶的計劃可能會改變，但這是我們處理問題的方式之一。

The second aspect is actually a tops-down approach, which is we take a read on, okay, what is global GP going to look like this year? What does that mean for electronics demand? What does that mean for IC unit and semi revenue growth? And what does that mean relative to wafers and technology? And then we try to correlate the 2 approaches together. We don't always get it perfect, Vivek, but it's a pretty robust process, and I think we do a decent job, but we don't always get it exactly right, but we do our best. I don't know, Tim, anything?

第二個方面實際上是一種自上而下的方法，即我們要了解一下，好吧，今年全球 GP 會是什麼樣子？這對電子產品需求意味著什麼？這對積體電路部門和半導體收入成長意味著什麼？那麼，這對晶圓和技術而言又意味著什麼呢？然後我們嘗試將這兩種方法結合起來。維韋克，我們並非總是能做到完美，但這確實是一個相當完善的過程，我認為我們做得還不錯，但我們並非總能做到完全正確，不過我們盡力而為。提姆，我不知道，什麼都不知道嗎？

Yes. No, I think it stems, as Doug said, from pretty extensive conversations with customers. One of the nice things about this business is that we have developed very deep relationships with the customers, and they're just as interested in having us deliver the technology they need on time. And so I think it's pretty open sharing about when tools are needed, when the ramp is going to occur. So that factors quite a bit into the calculation.

是的。不，我認為這正如道格所說，源自於與客戶的大量深入交流。這項業務的好處之一是我們與客戶建立了非常深厚的關係，他們也同樣希望我們能夠按時交付他們所需的技術。所以我認為，對於何時需要工具、何時開始加速推進，大家的分享相當開放。所以這在計算中佔有相當大的比重。

And anything on first half versus second half?

上半場和下半場有什麼差別嗎？

Yes. I think, Vivek, it's going to be a little bit of a first half weighted year, really driven by Foundry and Logic. I think Memory spending is going to be pretty steady through the year. But I think Foundry is probably a little bit first half weighted.

是的。維韋克，我認為今年上半年業績會比較突出，主要取決於 Foundry 和 Logic 的表現。我認為今年記憶體方面的支出會相當穩定。但我認為 Foundry 的表現可能更集中在前半年。

Got it. And for my follow-up, your installed base has grown at a 10%, 11% annual base in the last 5 years, which is pretty remarkable given the volatility in WFE. My question is, how fast have your services kind of grown annually during those 5 years? And how should we think about the installed base and services growth for the next 2 to 3 years?

知道了。另外，我想補充一點，在過去 5 年裡，你們的裝機量以每年 10% 到 11% 的速度增長，考慮到 WFE 的波動性，這相當了不起。我的問題是，在過去的五年裡，你們的服務每年成長速度如何？那麼，我們該如何看待未來 2 到 3 年的裝機量和服務成長呢？

Yes, I'll give you a little color. I mean, the best indicator of how its growing is just chamber count because that really is what drives the business opportunity. Having said that, we're doing a lot of innovative things around advanced service offerings in different ways to deliver value to customers that drives our objective, Vivek, at the end of the day to have dollars grow faster than just the growth in chamber count. And if you come see us in March, we'll probably give you a little more color around what this business looks like.

是的，我會為你增添一些色彩。我的意思是，衡量其成長情況的最佳指標是商會數量，因為這才是真正推動商業機會的因素。話雖如此，我們正在圍繞先進的服務產品進行許多創新工作，以不同的方式為客戶創造價值，這最終推動了我們的目標，Vivek，那就是讓資金增長速度超過商會數量的增長速度。如果您三月來拜訪我們，我們可能會向您詳細介紹我們公司的營運情況。

Yes. And I think the only thing I'd add, I made comments about the productivity upgrades and solutions part of that business. It's -- obviously, every customer is driving to reduce their running costs in their fabs. And so between upgrades for existing tools as well as new really data-enabled services that we offer to help recover tools more quickly with less labor and with a higher probability of first-time right. Those -- that part of the business is actually growing very fast, and I think has the ability, just as it did this past year, growing 30% year-on-year, the ability to outgrow the installed base. And so we're investing in that area.

是的。我覺得我唯一要補充的是，我曾就該業務的生產力提升和解決方案部分發表過評論。顯然，每個客戶都在努力降低其晶圓廠的營運成本。因此，我們不僅對現有工具進行升級，還提供真正以數據驅動的新服務，以幫助更快地恢復工具，減少人力投入，並提高一次性恢復成功的機率。業務的這一部分實際上增長得非常快，而且我認為它有能力像去年一樣，同比增長 30%，超越現有客戶群。因此，我們正在該領域進行投資。

Our next question will come from Krish Sankar with Cowen and Company.

下一個問題將來自 Cowen and Company 的 Krish Sankar。

And congrats guys on the great results. Just 2 quick ones, either Tim or Doug. When you look at the calendar year 2020, and like you mentioned, WFE is probably front-half loaded, mostly foundry logic biased going towards Memory in the back half. Are there any nuances in gross margin we should worry about? Or is there like one segment has a better gross margin profile than the other? And then I had a follow-up.

恭喜各位取得如此佳績！就兩個問題，Tim 或 Doug 都可以。看看 2020 年的日曆，正如你提到的，WFE 可能前半年集中，後半年主要轉向記憶體，而代工廠的邏輯晶片則相對集中。毛利率方面有哪些需要注意的細微差別？或者說，某個細分市場的毛利率比其他細分市場更高嗎？然後我還有後續跟進。

No, there's nothing specific to gross margin by segment that you should be thinking about. It varies with customer mix. It varies with product mix and then overall business volumes is what, I think, I've said every single quarter that I've been at the company, it's the same language. So there isn't anything specific by segment.

不，你無需特別考慮按業務板塊劃分的毛利率。這取決於客戶群組成。這取決於產品組合和整體業務量，我認為，自從我來到公司以來，每個季度我都說過同樣的話。所以沒有按細分市場劃分的具體措施。

Got it. Got it. Doug, and then just a follow-up on the OpEx. I understand March has the seasonality with all the merit increase, et cetera, but how do we think about OpEx on a go-forward basis? It's like 18% of sales a good bogey to use? Or is the $500 million plus run rate, quarterly run rate, the right metric?

知道了。知道了。Doug，然後是關於營運支出的後續問題。我知道三月有季節性因素，例如績效獎金增加等等，但是我們該如何看待未來的營運支出呢？18%的銷售額算是不錯的基準線嗎？或者說，5億美元以上的年均收入，也就是季度收入，才是正確的衡量標準嗎？

If you look at what we've done over the longer term, we've let spending grow at a rate less than the top line has grown over the last, I don't know, since we brought the 2 companies together. And I think you're going to see us thinking that same way as we see a stronger year in front of us. And again, come see us in March, I'll give you an updated financial model as well.

從長遠來看，自從我們將兩家公司合併以來，我們一直讓支出成長速度低於營收成長速度。我認為，隨著我們對未來一年的展望更加樂觀，我們也會秉持同樣的態度。還有，三月再來找我們，我還會給你一份更新後的財務模型。

All right. Next, we have a question from Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

好的。接下來，我們來聽聽瑞銀集團的 Timothy Arcuri 提出的問題。

Doug, I had 2. First of all, China has been running about 30% of revenue for the past 3 quarters. Should we expect it to be about 30% as a percent of revenue in March? And I assume within that, that it would still be like the vast majority of it would be the domestic guys. Is that correct?

道格，我有兩點。首先，在過去三個季度，中國市場貢獻了約 30% 的收入。我們是否可以預期3月份的營收佔比約為30%？而且我認為，其中絕大多數仍是國內人士。是這樣嗎？

Yes. I'm not going to get into kind of telling you quarter-by-quarter what it is. Let me remind you what I said earlier. I think it grows $2 billion to $3 billion off a base of 6-ish -- a little above $6 billion for the year. It will be lumpy. Tim, you know, how this goes. There's a project that takes tools, then it has to ramp it for a while and digest it and something else kicks in. I'm not going to give you exact color on the March guide, but I think it will be a good year for local China this year.

是的。我不會逐季度告訴你具體情況。讓我提醒你一下我之前說過的話。我認為它在 60 億美元左右的基數上成長了 20 億至 30 億美元——全年略高於 60 億美元。它會凹凸不平。提姆，你知道事情的來龍去脈。有一個項目需要工具，然後需要一段時間來逐步完善和消化，之後又會有其他因素介入。我不會對三月的預測給出確切的色彩，但我認為今年對中國本土市場來說會是個好年。

Okay. Great. Doug, and then I guess, this as a kind of a bigger picture question, but given what's going on with export control, I mean, you're saying that domestic China is going to add maybe $2 billion to $3 billion to 2020 WFE. Do you think that there's any of this incremental stuff going on within China, where customers are concerned about maybe someday down the road, they can't get access to tools? And so maybe they're pulling in time lines of these fabs?

好的。偉大的。道格，然後我想，這是一個更宏觀的問題，考慮到目前的出口管制情況，我的意思是，你的意思是說，中國國內可能會在 2020 年為世界出口指數增加 20 億至 30 億美元。你認為在中國是否存在這種漸進式的變化，導致客戶擔心將來某一天可能無法獲得所需的工具？所以他們或許是在藉鏡這些工廠的時間線？

Yes. I guess, I'll take that one, Tim. But I mean, we've answered this a couple of times that we've seen no indication that the China buys or pull-ins. There appear to be solid plans behind what they're trying to do. And every tool we ship, they're trying to ramp as quickly as they can. So I really don't -- I don't think that plays into it. Having said that, we are watching what's going on with the talk about regulatory controls. But at this point, no details that we could even really comment on.

是的。好吧，那我就選這個吧，提姆。但我的意思是，我們已經回答過好幾次了，我們沒有看到任何跡象表明中國會購買或撤出。他們似乎有周密的計劃來實施他們的行動。我們推出的每一款工具，他們都在盡力盡快擴大使用規模。所以我真的不認為——我不認為這會起作用。話雖如此，我們仍在關注有關監管控制的討論進展。但目前還沒有任何細節值得我們評論。

Our next question comes from Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley.

下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的喬·摩爾。

I wonder, back to the topic of this China sovereign business, if you could give us some color on the number of customers, I think people tend to think about Memory, but just -- I'm not looking for specifics, but how much of it is Memory versus Other stuff? And just an indication of the breadth that you're seeing?

回到中國主權財富基金的話題，我想請您介紹一下客戶數量的情況。我認為人們往往會想到記憶體業務，但——我不是想了解具體細節，只是想問一下，其中有多少是記憶體業務，又有多少是其他業務？這僅僅顯示了你所看到的範圍之廣嗎？

Yes. So Doug made a comment about the demand being pretty broad-based. I mean, we are seeing -- and again, you sort of think about what's great about our market right now is the breadth of driver -- end market drivers. There's a lot of IoT and specialty technologies, whether it'd be automotive, power devices, image sensors. You kind of see all of that be -- people in China trying to address that end demand. And so it's not isolated to any one thing. Clearly, the uptick in Memory has outsized importance for Lam's revenue. And obviously, we watch very closely what happens, especially in the NAND and DRAM areas. But really, our outlook in the $2 billion to $3 billion increase that Doug talked about in 2020 is pretty broad-based across a -- quite a number of customers.

是的。於是道格評論說，這種需求相當廣泛。我的意思是，我們看到——而且，你可能會認為我們市場目前最棒的地方在於驅動因素的廣度——終端市場驅動因素。有許多物聯網和專業技術，無論是汽車、電力設備還是影像感測器。你會發現這一切都是──中國人試圖滿足最終需求。所以，這並非孤立於任何單一因素。顯然，記憶體業務的成長對林氏的收入具有極為重要的意義。顯然，我們會密切關注事態發展，尤其是在 NAND 和 DRAM 領域。但實際上，道格在 2020 年提到的 20 億至 30 億美元的成長前景相當廣泛，涵蓋了相當多的客戶。

Okay. Great. And then you guys have talked about a kind of $14 billion -- or $70 billion 5-year WFE for NAND, kind of keeping us on a historic supply growth trajectory. Is that still kind of the right ballpark? And we see -- it would seem to be quite a bit lower than that right now. Is that still kind of the right framework for thinking about what WFE ought to be if we stay in the historical demand context?

好的。偉大的。然後你們談到了未來五年內 NAND 快閃 WFE 的 140 億美元或 700 億美元預算，這將使我們保持歷史性的供應成長軌跡。這個範圍還算合適嗎？我們看到——現在看來似乎比那低得多。如果我們仍然從歷史需求的角度來思考 WFE 應該是什麼，那麼這種框架是否仍然是正確的？

Yes. That's still the way we look at it. And our comment, you just said, we were quite a bit below that at this point. That was part of our commentary as I said, through last year, we were actually under-investing for long-term demand. That long-term demand is what establishes our $70 billion 5-year investment. And even this year, as we see a strong uptick in NAND, we still, as we said, expect ourselves to exit the year, maybe slightly still below the long-term demand rate.

是的。我們仍然這樣看待這個問題。正如你剛才所說，我們當時的水平還遠低於這個目標。正如我之前所說，這也是我們去年評論的一部分，我們實際上對長期需求的投資不足。正是這種長期需求促成了我們這項為期 5 年、總額達 700 億美元的投資。即使今年我們看到 NAND 需求強勁成長，但正如我們所說，我們仍然預計到年底，我們的需求可能會略低於長期需求水準。

Our next question comes from Patrick Ho with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 公司的 Patrick Ho。

And congrats also. Maybe, Doug, first, in terms of the installed base business and the growth you're seeing there and the sustainability of that growth. Can you just give a little bit of color of how you've seen maybe over the last few years and going forward, how the business has kind of transitioned from, I guess, the transactional break-and-fix type of business to more of the contract base, which gives you a better visibility into the revenue and cash flow stream of that business?

也恭喜你。或許，道格，首先要從現有客戶群業務、你所看到的成長以及這種成長的可持續性面向來考慮。您能否簡要介紹一下您在過去幾年以及未來幾年中觀察到的業務發展情況，例如，您認為該業務是如何從以交易為主的故障維修業務轉型為以合約為基礎的業務，從而讓您更好地了解該業務的收入和現金流？

Yes. Patrick, I'm actually going to redirect it to Tim because I think he'll give you a more comprehensive answer than I would.

是的。派崔克，我打算把這個問題轉給提姆，因為我覺得他會給你比我更全面的答案。

Doug, can certainly add something there. But I think we have seen that transition, and it's not just something that's happened to us. It's been a strategy we've been driving to try to make this business less transactional, much more value-add and also much more long term. And I talked in my script about one way in which we do that, you transition the transactional to longer term through multiyear contracts. Even there, you're able to help the customer control their cost in a much more predictable way. And that gives us better visibility going forward, makes the business a little less transactional. But I think the biggest way that we've transitioned this business from transactional to strategic is really through our focus on new products in the portfolio of services and upgrades that allow the customer to change the cost profile of running their installed base.

道格肯定能在這方面補充一些內容。但我認為我們已經看到了這種轉變，而且這不僅僅是發生在我們身上的事情。我們一直在推行一項策略，旨在讓這項業務減少交易性，增加價值，並使其更具長期性。我在劇本中談到了我們實現這一目標的其中一種方法，即透過多年合約將短期交易過渡到長期合作。即使在那裡，你也能幫助客戶以更可預測的方式控製成本。這樣一來，我們就能更了解未來的發展方向，讓業務少一點交易性。但我認為，我們將這項業務從交易型業務轉型為策略型業務的最大途徑，實際上是透過專注於服務和升級組合中的新產品，使客戶能夠改變其已安裝基礎的運作成本結構。

And so in that way, you can make this much more strategic. I talked about the Corvus R technology, the self-maintaining tool, where the system itself replaces some of its consumable parts rather than having to have technicians go and do that work. When we engineer that type of new upgrade, you then create for yourself an entire new SAM within your installed base. And now, as customers recognize the value of that automated replacement system, they go and they upgrade to all of those older tools that are in the installed base, and it creates another source of ongoing revenue for us. And in the meantime, we're looking for that next upgrade to engineer and offer to the customers. And so I think it's becoming much more of a product and strategic refocused business. It just happens that its targeted market is the installed base that we've already shipped.

這樣一來，你就可以讓這件事更具策略性。我談到了 Corvus R 技術，這是一種自我維護工具，該系統本身可以更換一些消耗性零件，而無需技術人員進行這些工作。當我們設計出這種類型的新升級時，您就相當於在已安裝的系統基礎上建立了一個全新的 SAM。現在，隨著客戶認識到自動更換系統的價值，他們會升級所有已安裝的舊工具，這為我們創造了另一個持續的收入來源。同時，我們正在尋找下一個升級方案，以便進行研發並提供給客戶。所以我認為它正在變得更加註重產品和策略重組。恰好它的目標市場是我們已經發貨的客戶群。

Great. That's helpful. And maybe as my follow-up question, and maybe for Tim, since you talked about in your prepared remarks about the ALD market and the market expansion opportunity there. On top of the share gains you've made in that segment as well as the market growing, particularly in the foundry logic space, do you see additional applications and foundry logic driving this growth? Or is there a opportunity for it to expand to other segments like DRAM?

偉大的。那很有幫助。或許我可以追問一下，也想問問 Tim，因為你在事先準備好的發言中談到了 ALD 市場以及那裡的市場擴張機會。除了您在該領域取得的市場份額成長以及市場（尤其是代工邏輯領域）的成長之外，您是否認為其他應用和代工邏輯會推動這種成長？或者它有機會擴展到其他領域，例如DRAM？

Yes, it already is expanding into other markets. I mean, the only difference being, again, with ALD, you're essentially creating a deposition technology, a platform, and that's one thing that Lam is very good at is we're creating high productivity platforms. And then we expand the portfolio of films that we can deposit, and that creates more application opportunities for us. So I talked about oxides and carbides. There are other films that are also being developed at the same time. And I think that, ultimately, every device type reaches a point where it needs to do some level of atomic layer processing. And so long term, I think this is just where the technology is going. That's why you see ALD starting to replace, as I said, some older process alternatives for certain steps.

是的，它已經在向其他市場擴張了。我的意思是，唯一的差別在於，ALD本質上是在創造一種沉積技術、一個平台，Lam公司非常擅長的就是創造高生產力的平台。然後，我們擴大了可以存入的薄膜種類，這為我們創造了更多的應用機會。所以我談到了氧化物和碳化物。同時，還有其他一些電影也在籌備中。我認為，最終，每種類型的設備都會發展到需要某種程度的原子層處理的地步。所以從長遠來看，我認為這就是科技的發展方向。這就是為什麼你會看到 ALD 開始取代某些步驟中的一些較舊的工藝替代方案，正如我所說。

Our next question comes from Joe Quatrochi with Wells Fargo.

下一個問題來自富國銀行的喬·夸特羅奇。

Congrats on the results. I was curious on the NAND flash side. I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about the amount of clean room space that you see across the industry today and that's empty. And then how do you think about just the industry's kind of views on filling it versus past cycles?

恭喜取得好成績。我對NAND快閃記憶體方面很有興趣。我想請您談談目前整個產業中大量空置的無塵室空間的情況。那麼，您如何看待業內人士對填補空缺的看法與以往週期相比有何不同？

Joe, are you still there? Sorry, you broke off at the end I thought.

喬，你還在嗎？抱歉，我以為你最後掛斷了電話。

Yes.

是的。

Okay. There's clean room space out there in the industry, for sure, across all of the customer base. And so what I always say is, in fact, I think, I don't know, a quarter or 2 ago, we talked about the fact that we were tracking double-digit number of new fabs in 2019. I think, the number is probably about the same in 2020, a lot of those being memory fabs. The thing to understand with our customers is building the shell is, it's a cheap call option on the future, right? It doesn't mean they're going to equip it tomorrow, but it does indicate to you a long-term intention. And then they buy equipment when they really need the output. That's where the real money and capital gets deployed. But there's plenty of clean room space out there.

好的。業界肯定存在潔淨室空間，而且在所有客戶群中都有需求。所以我總是說，事實上，我想，大約一兩個季度前，我們討論過，2019 年我們追蹤到兩位數的新晶圓廠數量。我認為，2020 年的數字可能也差不多，其中許多是記憶體製造廠。我們需要讓客戶明白，建造外殼就好比是未來的廉價買權，對吧？這並不意味著他們明天就會進行裝備，但這確實表明了他們的長期意圖。然後，當他們真正需要產量時，他們才會購買設備。那才是真正投入資金和資本的地方。但市面上有許多無塵室空間。

Yes. I guess the only thing I'd add, I thought perhaps you were going to ask about the importance of clean room space and I was going to be able to tell you. That's the -- one of the things that we focus on, you might have understood in the past from past commentary that a benefit of some of our products like the Strata, and why it's popular within the NAND market is, the number of wafers that we output from that tool per square meter of fab space that's consumed is actually the best in the industry. That's an important metric. Even when Doug says, there's lots of fab space, which I certainly agree with, how they use it is always important to the customer. And so again, as we think through platform design and launching new tools, what we call footprint density or throughput density is really one of the key metrics that we focus on.

是的。我唯一想補充的是，我以為你可能會問到無塵室空間的重要性，而我本來可以告訴你。這是我們關注的重點之一，您可能從過去的評論中了解到，我們的一些產品（例如 Strata）的優勢，以及它在 NAND 市場受歡迎的原因，在於我們使用該工具每平方米晶圓廠空間所產出的晶圓數量實際上是業內最好的。這是一個重要的指標。即使道格說，這裡有很多設計空間（我當然同意這一點），但如何利用這些空間對客戶來說始終很重要。因此，當我們思考平台設計和推出新工具時，我們稱之為佔用空間密度或吞吐量密度的指標，實際上是我們關注的關鍵指標之一。

That's helpful. And then just back on the services side. Given that we should start to see, I would think, an acceleration in the growth of your installed base this year with just a rebound in Memory demand, should -- is it fair to us to think about accelerating year-over-year revenue growth for that business in 2020?

那很有幫助。然後就回到服務方面。鑑於今年記憶體需求反彈，我們應該會看到你們的裝機量成長加速，那麼——我們是否可以考慮在 2020 年加快該業務的年收入成長？

Joe, the way I generally think about it is, the chambers ship and then they monetize over a period of time after they ship. And so the fact that you saw chambers grow in 2019, that's a good indicator of what's going to drive growth in 2020. That's how I generally think about. There's a little bit of a lag to it after the chamber count, which is why, historically, we've given you a chamber count number one time a year at the end of the year.

喬，我通常的想法是，產品先發貨，然後在發貨後的一段時間內開始盈利。因此，2019 年商會數量的成長，很好地預示了 2020 年的成長趨勢。我通常就是這樣想的。彈膛計數之後會有一點滯後，因此，從歷史上看，我們每年只在年底公佈一次彈膛計數。

Our next question comes from Mehdi Hosseini with SIG.

下一個問題來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

All the good ones have already been asked. Just a quick follow-up for Doug. How should we think about OpEx just roughly beyond the March quarter?

好的那些問題都已經被問過了。給道格提個簡短的後續問題。我們該如何看待3月之後的營運支出？

Yes. I kind of answered that already. And I kind of didn't answer it in how I answered it. But what I said, I'll give you a new financial model in March.

是的。我其實已經回答過這個問題了。而我給的回答方式，其實也沒有真正回答這個問題。但我說過，我會在三月給你一個新的財務模型。

Okay.

好的。

And what I said is, over the last several years, the same management team is here that's been around the company for a while. We like to see revenue grow faster than that we want to let spending grow so that we deliver some leverage to the bottom line. That's still very much how we think about it.

我之前說過，過去幾年裡，公司一直由同一支管理團隊掌舵，他們已經在公司待了很久了。我們希望收入成長速度超過支出成長速度，這樣才能對利潤產生一定的推動作用。我們至今仍然這樣看待這個問題。

But your March quarter shows typical seasonal uptick. And I know we have to wait until March 3. But as we model this kind of fine-tuning our estimate, should I think of your OpEx remaining at the minimum at the same level, it's not going to just be a onetime event?

但您三月的季度數據顯示出現了典型的季節性成長。我知道我們必須等到 3 月 3 日。但是，當我們模擬這種微調估算的方法時，我是否應該認為您的營運支出將保持在最低水平，這不會只是一次性事件？

Yes, that's probably not an unreasonable way to be thinking about it for now, Mehdi.

是的，梅赫迪，現在這樣想或許並非不合理。

All right. Our next question comes from Mitch Steves with RBC Capital Markets.

好的。下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的米奇·史蒂夫斯。

I think the majority have been answered, but I just want to clarify, maybe 2 small things. So number one is the comments on DRAM. So it sounds like that's going to be up year-over-year for 2020. I just want to make sure that's right. And there wasn't anything to read between there? And then secondly, I don't expect numbers from this, but is the message that you guys believe you're going to gain more share in NAND relative to the Other markets in '20?

我認為大部分問題都已得到解答，但我還想澄清兩件小事。所以第一點是關於DRAM的評論。聽起來2020年這個數字會比去年有所成長。我只是想確認一下是否正確。中間沒有文字可以讀嗎？其次，我並不指望從中獲得具體數字，但你們是否認為在 2020 年，相對於其他市場，你們將在 NAND 領域獲得更大的市場份額？

I'll take the first one and then I'll let Tim comment on the share. I don't really see -- when I look at the WFE, the color that we just gave you a real recovery in NAND. I wouldn't describe it that way -- sorry, in DRAM, in DRAM. Clearly, in NAND, yes, Foundry and Logic continues to be strong. DRAM is kind of a push, plus or minus. And what we see happening is, there's still a little bit of inventory out in the channel. It's got to get burned off. And at some point, you can't continue to sustain supply growth below where demand growth is. And when we look at DRAM bit growth, we think supply growth in 2020 is below demand growth.

我先來，然後讓提姆來評論一下。我不太明白——當我查看 WFE 時，我們剛剛在 NAND 中給你的真正恢復的顏色。我不會那樣描述它——抱歉，在DRAM中，在DRAM中。顯然，在 NAND 領域，晶圓代工和邏輯業務仍然強勁。DRAM 的表現好壞參半，難分伯仲。我們看到的情況是，渠道中仍然有一些庫存。必須把它燒掉。而且，在某個時候，供應成長不能一直低於需求成長。當我們觀察 DRAM 位元成長時，我們認為 2020 年的供應成長低於需求成長。

Yes. And I think a little bit longer term and also relative to clearing the inventory, we've been very encouraged by comments we've heard about what we understand are drivers for DRAM. The growth in the server market, the introduction of 5G, where you're seeing pretty substantial step-up in terms of DRAM content per handset. And so it's -- and I think Doug said this in the past, but it's even for DRAM, a little bit more matter of when, not if. So I think it's just -- right now, we have a, as you said, maybe about a push for the outlook that we have just given you.

是的。而且我認為從更長遠的角度來看，就清理庫存而言，我們對聽到的 DRAM 驅動因素的評論感到非常鼓舞。伺服器市場的成長，以及 5G 的推出，使得每支手機的 DRAM 容量都有了相當大的提升。所以——我想道格以前也說過——即使對DRAM來說，更多的是時間問題，而不是會不會發生的問題。所以我覺得現在的情況是──正如你所說，我們或許應該推動我們剛才提出的前景。

Your comment about NAND. I guess, when we think about share or share of total spend, one of the things we've talked about is the strength for us in NAND, obviously, is that we are -- and our tools are key enablers of building taller and taller NAND stacks. And as those stacks increase our share of total WFE continues to increase. And so given that year-on-year, we continue to see a greater portion of spend being spent on taller NAND devices, our share of total spend will increase.

你對NAND的評論。我想，當我們考慮份額或總支出份額時，我們討論過的一件事是，我們在 NAND 方面的優勢顯然在於——而且我們的工具是建立越來越高的 NAND 堆疊的關鍵推動因素。隨著這些堆疊的增加，我們在總 WFE 的份額也持續增加。因此，鑑於每年都有越來越多的支出用於更高的 NAND 設備，我們在總支出中所佔的份額將會增加。

Okay. That makes perfect sense. Just really a small one if I could. What was just like the dollar impact to the virus that you guys are taking out of the Q1, just to get an idea?

好的。這完全說得通。如果可以的話，就一個很小的就好。你們從第一季的數據中剔除了病毒對美元造成的衝擊嗎？我只是想了解一下狀況。

I'm not going to describe the specific dollars. It was an amount that we think is consistent with what we're hearing from customers and suppliers.

我不會透露具體的金額。我們認為這個金額與我們從客戶和供應商那裡聽到的回饋是一致的。

All right. Our next question comes from Quinn Bolton with Needham & Company.

好的。下一個問題來自 Needham & Company 的 Quinn Bolton。

One near-term question, one longer term question. On the near-term question, given the travel restrictions in China around the coronavirus outbreak, can you guys say, are you guys having difficulty accessing some of the fabs, either in the installed base business or delivering new tools? Or is it still somewhat business as usual and you have access to service the tools in the fab, you're able to deliver tools here in the near term?

一個近期問題，一個長期問題。就近期問題而言，鑑於中國因冠狀病毒疫情而實施的旅行限制，你們能否說明一下，在現有設備業務或新設備交付方面，你們在進入一些晶圓廠時是否遇到困難？或者，目前一切照常，您可以繼續維護工廠裡的設備，並且能夠在短期內將設備運送到這裡？

well. I think very specifically, I think, most people are aware, the travel restrictions have been placed on travel in and out of Wuhan itself. And so obviously, we can't travel into that area, where there are some customers located. But in general, I think that, as Doug said, we're moving through the Lunar New Year, which now has been extended and got of abundance of caution Lam has also implemented travel restrictions for our people to kind of business-critical situations only. And I think from the standpoint of the impact and the way we've looked at it is, there could be delays of a few weeks in our -- in supply chain or shipments to customers. And we don't see that as any real change though to the demand picture that we've outlined. And therefore, we're really talking about just hopefully seeing this normalize over the next few weeks.

出色地。我認為，更具體地說，我認為大多數人都知道，進出武漢的旅行已經受到限制。所以很顯然，我們不能前往那個區域，那裡有一些客戶。但總的來說，我認為，正如道格所說，我們正在度過農曆新年，而農曆新年現在已經延長，出於謹慎考慮，林鄭月娥也對我們的員工實施了旅行限制，只允許在業務關鍵情況下出行。我認為從影響的角度來看，以及我們看待這個問題的方式來看，我們的供應鏈或向客戶的發貨可能會延遲幾週。但我們認為這不會對我們概述的需求情勢造成任何實質改變。因此，我們真正希望的是，這種情況能在接下來的幾週內恢復正常。

Great. That's helpful color. And the longer term question is your 2020 WFE forecast, I think, is higher than probably what many of us were thinking. I guess, as I look out to 2021, it sounds like DRAM is not part of the 2020 forecast. Do you think 2021, WFE can continue to trend higher if that DRAM spending comes back?

偉大的。這是個很有幫助的顏色。而更長遠的問題是，我認為您對 2020 年 WFE 的預測可能比我們許多人預想的要高。展望 2021 年，我猜 DRAM 似乎不在 2020 年的預測範圍內。你認為如果DRAM支出在2021年回升，WFE能否繼續維持成長動能？

You're kidding. You know we're not going to talk about (inaudible) '21 is. Listen when I think about it though the long-term growth drivers are totally intact. We've been talking about this for years, right? You got data exploding in society. You got cloud and hyperscale, the big seven, what have you, investing in more in equipment this year, that's good. You've got 5G on the com line, that's good. You've got density growing there in every phone. So the long term is really very positive for the industry and our position in the industry, enabling it, we feel really good about where we're sitting.

你在開玩笑。你知道我們不會談論（聽不清楚）'21是。不過仔細想想，長期成長動力仍然完全存在。我們已經討論這個問題好幾年了，對吧？社會上的數據呈現爆炸性成長。雲端運算、超大規模、七大巨頭等等，今年都在加大設備投資，這很好。通訊線路支援5G，這很好。每支手機的密度都在增加。因此，從長遠來看，這對整個行業以及我們在行業中的地位都非常有利，我們對自己所處的位置感到非常滿意。

Okay, operator, we have time for one more question, please.

好的，接線員，我們還有時間再問一個問題。

Okay. My last question comes from Sidney Ho with Deutsche Bank.

好的。我的最後一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Sidney Ho。

Great. My first question is on the Memory spending this year. If things play out the way you think, are you thinking that NAND CapEx will still be below that $70 billion run rate? I know you said that you weighted below the 40% bit supply growth. I guess, in a way I'm trying to parse out that $8 billion to $10 billion increase in WFE you guys forecasting?

偉大的。我的第一個問題是關於今年的記憶支出。如果事情按你預想的那樣發展，你認為 NAND 快閃記憶體的資本支出仍會低於 700 億美元的年化水準嗎？我知道你說過你的權重低於 40% 的比特供應成長。我想，某種程度上，我是在試圖理解你們預測的 WFE 成長 80 億至 100 億美元？

Yes. Sidney, we never give you segment by segment WFE numbers, and I'm not going to now. It is going to grow this year. And as Tim described, we think bit growth in NAND is in the first half anyway, below where long-term demand is, and probably exiting the year is getting closer to being in balance. But we still think it's below where demand growth is. I'm going to leave it at that.

是的。西德尼，我們從來不會給你提供各個細分市場的 WFE 數據，現在我也不會。今年它還會成長。正如 Tim 所描述的那樣，我們認為 NAND 的位元成長無論如何都發生在上半年，低於長期需求，而且到年底可能會更接近平衡。但我們仍然認為它低於需求成長水準。我就說到這裡吧。

Okay. How about DRAM bit supply growth exiting the year, if there is, to your point, if there's DRAM CapEx being pushed?

好的。如果DRAM位元供應量在年底前成長，正如您所說，如果DRAM資本支出正在推進，那麼DRAM位元供應量在年底前會如何成長？

DRAM bit growth also, I think, as we said, would under grow long-term demand this year.

我認為，正如我們所說，DRAM 位元成長今年將低於長期需求。

Okay. Maybe a longer term question. With the share gains you had in Foundry and Logic this year and I think it was as high as 48% of the total revenue last quarter. How should we think about your exposure between Foundry and Logic and Memory through the next cycle, I think, versus maybe last 5 years, remember it was averaging like close to 70% sales?

好的。或許這是一個需要長期考慮的問題。今年，您在 Foundry 和 Logic 領域的市佔率有所成長，我認為上個季度佔總營收的比例高達 48%。我認為，在接下來的周期中，我們應該如何看待晶圓製造、邏輯電路和記憶體業務之間的敞口，與過去 5 年相比，要知道過去 5 年的平均銷售額接近 70% 嗎？

We've got nice trajectory relative to what's going on in Foundry and Logic, and we had a really strong December quarter, record level on Foundry. I expect our share of WFE in both Foundry and Logic to continue to be very strong. I'm not going to pinpoint exactly what it is versus Memory because we're very strong in Memory as well. I feel really good about where we're positioned. I'll just put it that way.

相對於 Foundry 和 Logic 的發展情況，我們的發展軌跡相當不錯，而且我們在 12 月的季度表現非常強勁，Foundry 的業績達到了創紀錄的水平。我預計我們在 Foundry 和 Logic 兩大業務單位的 WFE 份額將繼續保持強勁勢頭。我不會具體指出它與記憶力之間的區別，因為我們在記憶力方面也很強。我對我們目前的處境感到非常滿意。我就這麼說吧。

I mean, I think the simplest way to think about it as a company, our objective is to improve our share, revenue share of WFE across all segments.

我的意思是，我認為最簡單的理解方式是，作為一家公司，我們的目標是提高我們在所有細分市場中 WFE 的份額和收入份額。

All right. I'd like to turn it back over to our speakers for any closing remarks.

好的。我想把時間交還給各位發言人，請他們作總結發言。

We just want to thank everyone for joining our call today. We appreciate it.

我們衷心感謝今天所有參加我們電話會議的朋友。我們非常感謝。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's teleconference, and you may now disconnect. Please enjoy the rest of your day.

謝謝各位女士、先生。今天的電話會議到此結束，您可以斷開連線了。祝您今天餘下的時間愉快。