科林研發 (LRCX) 2020 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Lam Research Corporation's December Quarter 2019 Financial Results Conference Call.

美好的一天，歡迎參加 Lam Research Corporation 2019 年 12 月季度財務業績電話會議。

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Ms. Tina Correia, Corporate VP of Investor Relations.

此時，我想將會議轉交給投資者關係公司副總裁 Tina Correia 女士。

Ma'am, please begin.

女士，請開始。

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone.

謝謝大家，大家下午好。

Welcome to the Lam Research quarterly earnings conference call.

歡迎參加 Lam Research 季度收益電話會議。

With me today are Tim Archer, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Doug Bettinger, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

今天和我在一起的是總裁兼首席執行官 Tim Archer；以及執行副總裁兼首席財務官 Doug Bettinger。

During today's call, we will share our overview on the business environment and review our financial results for the December 2019 quarter and our outlook for the March 2020 quarter.

在今天的電話會議中，我們將分享我們對商業環境的概述，並回顧我們 2019 年 12 月季度的財務業績和我們對 2020 年 3 月季度的展望。

The press release detailing our financial results was distributed a little after 1:00 p.m.

詳細說明我們財務業績的新聞稿在下午 1:00 後發布。

Pacific Time this afternoon.

太平洋時間今天下午。

The release can also be found on the Investor Relations section of the company's website along with the presentation slides that accompany today's call.

該新聞稿還可以在公司網站的投資者關係部分以及今天電話會議隨附的演示幻燈片中找到。

Today's presentation and Q&A includes forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties reflected in the risk factors disclosed in our SEC public filings.

今天的演示和問答包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到我們在 SEC 公開文件中披露的風險因素中反映的風險和不確定性的影響。

Please see accompanying slides in the presentation for additional information.

請參閱演示文稿中的隨附幻燈片以獲取更多信息。

Today's discussion of our financial results will be presented on a non-GAAP financial basis unless otherwise specified.

除非另有說明，否則今天對我們財務業績的討論將在非公認會計原則財務基礎上進行。

A detailed reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP results can be found in today's earnings press release.

可以在今天的收益新聞稿中找到 GAAP 和非 GAAP 結果之間的詳細核對。

This call is scheduled to last until 3:00 p.m.

本次電話會議計劃持續到下午 3:00。

Pacific Time.

太平洋時間。

A replay of this call will be available later this afternoon on our website.

今天下午晚些時候將在我們的網站上重播這次電話會議。

With that, I will hand the call over to Tim.

有了這個，我會把電話交給蒂姆。

Thanks, Tina, and welcome, everyone.

謝謝，蒂娜，歡迎大家。

In the December quarter, Lam delivered revenues and diluted earnings per share above the midpoint of guidance, marking another quarter of solid execution and closing out a year of strong performance in calendar 2019.

在 12 月季度，Lam 的收入和攤薄後每股收益高於指引中點，標誌著又一個季度穩健執行，並在 2019 日曆年結束了強勁表現的一年。

Consistent with our comments throughout this year, we entered 2020 with increasing momentum and an improved spending mix environment, which we believe will lead to outperformance by Lam.

與我們今年全年的評論一致，我們進入 2020 年的勢頭越來越大，支出組合環境得到改善，我們相信這將導致林的表現出色。

I have now completed my first year as CEO of Lam Research, and I am incredibly proud of what our people have achieved.

我現在已經完成了作為 Lam Research 首席執行官的第一年，我為我們的員工所取得的成就感到無比自豪。

Underpinning our strong financial results this past year has been a company-wide focus on execution and an emphasis on our culture where all employees can perform their best.

過去一年我們強勁的財務業績的基礎是整個公司對執行的關注以及對我們的文化的重視，讓所有員工都能發揮最大的作用。

I want to thank Lam's employees across our global organization for their efforts and, of course, our partners and customers for their valued support.

我要感謝 Lam 在我們全球組織中的員工所做的努力，當然還要感謝我們的合作夥伴和客戶的寶貴支持。

I also want to take a moment to address the coronavirus situation.

我還想花一點時間來解決冠狀病毒的情況。

Our concern, first and foremost, is with the health and well-being of our employees, customers and partners.

我們首先關心的是員工、客戶和合作夥伴的健康和福祉。

And with this in mind, we have implemented precautionary measures within our global business operations.

考慮到這一點，我們在全球業務運營中實施了預防措施。

Additionally, we are donating to Chinese relief efforts to support the people and communities impacted by the coronavirus outbreak.

此外，我們正在向中國的救援工作捐款，以支持受冠狀病毒爆發影響的人民和社區。

Now turning to our business results.

現在轉向我們的業務成果。

In calendar 2019, we generated solid operating cash flows, and at the same time, we invested a company record in research and development dollars to fuel technology innovation and product differentiation.

在 2019 日曆年，我們產生了穩健的經營現金流，同時，我們在研發方面投入了創紀錄的資金，以推動技術創新和產品差異化。

Our EPS performance, the second best in the company's 40-year history, was especially noteworthy given that memory spending declined significantly year-over-year in 2019.

鑑於 2019 年內存支出同比大幅下降，我們的每股收益表現是公司 40 年曆史上第二好的表現，尤其值得注意。

The impact of lower memory spending was partially mitigated by record revenue from our customer support business group, highlighting the importance of our recurring spares and service opportunity to the overall quality of earnings of the company.

我們的客戶支持業務組創紀錄的收入部分緩解了內存支出減少的影響，突顯了我們經常性備件和服務機會對公司整體收益質量的重要性。

In 2019, we also saw outstanding execution in our product organizations.

2019 年，我們的產品組織也表現出色。

We grew our revenue share of WFE spend in memory and foundry logic, and we laid the foundation for additional gains as we recorded our best ever performance in net penetration and defense application wins as measured by revenue potential over the next 3 years.

我們在內存和代工邏輯方面增加了 WFE 支出的收入份額，並為額外收益奠定了基礎，因為我們在未來 3 年的收入潛力衡量的淨滲透率和國防應用勝利方面取得了有史以來最好的表現。

We are winning by focusing on high-volume manufacturing solutions for emerging technology inflection challenges, including those associated with new scaling architectures, new memory technologies and new materials.

我們通過專注於針對新興技術拐點挑戰的大批量製造解決方案而獲勝，包括與新縮放架構、新內存技術和新材料相關的挑戰。

We are capitalizing on the learning from our installed base of tools that today enable some of the industry's most critical etch and deposition applications.

我們正在利用從我們已安裝的工具庫中學習到的知識，這些工具如今支持一些行業中最關鍵的蝕刻和沈積應用。

For example, for the 3 most critical applications in 3D NAND, our Strata, ALTUS and Flex tools, each process well over 1 million wafers per month in high-volume manufacturing, allowing us to partner early and in a unique way with our customers on next-generation needs.

例如，對於 3D NAND 中最關鍵的 3 個應用，我們的 Strata、ALTUS 和 Flex 工具，每個月在大批量製造中處理超過 100 萬個晶圓，使我們能夠儘早以獨特的方式與客戶合作下一代的需求。

In 2019, this led to the addition of new products to our portfolio, such as the VECTOR DT, which is designed to address wafer stress problems encountered during the high-volume production of 3D NAND stacks of 96 layers and above.

2019 年，這導致我們的產品組合中增加了新產品，例如 VECTOR DT，該產品旨在解決在大批量生產 96 層及以上 3D NAND 堆棧過程中遇到的晶圓應力問題。

Similarly, we enhanced the capabilities of our Coronus product family to improve device yield at the wafer edge by depositing encapsulating layers for bevel protection.

同樣，我們增強了 Coronus 產品系列的能力，通過沉積封裝層來保護斜面，從而提高晶圓邊緣的器件良率。

These products expand our served share of WFE spend but just as importantly, they exemplify our commitment to our customers' success.

這些產品擴大了我們在 WFE 支出中的服務份額，但同樣重要的是，它們體現了我們對客戶成功的承諾。

In 2019, we improved to the #1 or #2 position at all of our largest customers that provide a competitive ranking of their suppliers based on detailed quality, support and performance scorecards.

2019 年，我們在所有最大客戶中的排名都提升到了第一或第二的位置，這些客戶根據詳細的質量、支持和績效記分卡為其供應商提供了具有競爭力的排名。

In part, this improvement is due to our investment in productivity-enhancing upgrades for our installed base.

在某種程度上，這種改進是由於我們對已安裝基礎的生產力增強升級進行了投資。

For instance, Corvus wafer edge solutions have become key differentiators for our conductor and dielectric etch systems in high-volume manufacturing and have been instrumental in helping our customers reduce cost of ownership.

例如，Corvus 晶圓邊緣解決方案已成為我們在大批量製造中的導體和電介質蝕刻系統的關鍵差異化因素，並有助於幫助我們的客戶降低擁有成本。

We announced in 2019 a Corvus-enabled self-maintaining etch tool that ran for 1 year in high-volume manufacturing without human intervention.

我們在 2019 年宣布了一款支持 Corvus 的自我維護蝕刻工具，該工具在大批量製造中運行了 1 年，無需人工干預。

Multiple customers are now upgrading their installed base tools to include this high value-added capability.

多個客戶現在正在升級他們已安裝的基礎工具以包含這種高附加值功能。

In 2019, we highlighted heterogeneous integration and advanced packaging as new areas of opportunity to leverage our product portfolio and 3D learning to drive growth.

2019 年，我們強調異構集成和先進封裝是利用我們的產品組合和 3D 學習來推動增長的新機遇領域。

In the December quarter, we built on our growing momentum in this space with additional wins for our SABRE 3D electroplating system at multiple advanced packaging customers.

在 12 月季度，我們鞏固了在這一領域不斷增長的勢頭，我們的 SABRE 3D 電鍍系統在多個先進封裝客戶中獲得了額外的勝利。

With these latest wins, we estimate that we have gained more than 15 points of market share in the last 2 years, and we have firmly established ourselves as the technology leader in the increasingly important through silicon via market.

憑藉這些最新的勝利，我們估計我們在過去 2 年中獲得了超過 15 個百分點的市場份額，並且我們已經牢固地確立了自己在日益重要的矽通孔市場中的技術領導者地位。

Another area of growth for the company has been in atomic layer deposition or ALD.

該公司的另一個增長領域是原子層沉積或 ALD。

Our ALD solutions are gaining significant traction in the market by delivering best-in-class film properties, along with high productivity and low defects.

我們的 ALD 解決方案通過提供一流的薄膜性能以及高生產率和低缺陷在市場上獲得了顯著的吸引力。

Due to the inherent advantages of higher film quality and conformity, our Striker ALD oxide systems are replacing older process alternatives, such as spin on dielectric and SACVD for critical applications, pulling more WFE spending into our served market.

由於更高薄膜質量和一致性的固有優勢，我們的 Striker ALD 氧化物系統正在取代舊的工藝替代品，例如用於關鍵應用的旋塗電介質和 SACVD，從而將更多的 WFE 支出引入我們服務的市場。

Similarly, RC scaling requirements are driving increased demand for our single-wafer Striker carbide and ALTUS ALD metallization systems.

同樣，RC 縮放要求正在推動對我們的單晶片 Striker 碳化物和 ALTUS ALD 金屬化系統的需求增加。

When used for low-k carbide liner spacer applications, our Striker system has been able to achieve 30% better RC properties versus competing batch tools.

當用於低 k 碳化物襯墊墊片應用時，我們的 Striker 系統能夠實現比競爭批量工具高 30% 的 RC 性能。

For metallization, we closed out 2019 on a high note, with significant wins in logic foundry, for our ALTUS systems as customers look to replace the conventional barrier fill sequence with an integrated ALD approach to lower device resistance in a cost-effective way.

對於金屬化，我們以高調結束了 2019 年，我們的 ALTUS 系統在邏輯代工方面取得了重大勝利，因為客戶希望用集成的 ALD 方法取代傳統的阻擋層填充序列，從而以具有成本效益的方式降低器件電阻。

Across all products, we exited 2019 with approximately 61,000 chambers in our installed base.

在所有產品中，我們在 2019 年結束時在我們的安裝基礎中擁有大約 61,000 個腔室。

Our installed base revenues grew year-over-year and reached record levels in 2019, with significant contribution from our Reliant business, which also reached record levels.

我們的安裝基礎收入同比增長，並在 2019 年達到創紀錄水平，我們的 Reliant 業務做出了重大貢獻，該業務也達到了創紀錄水平。

Productivity upgrades and solutions grew more than 30% year-over-year, as we have worked to help customers enhance the performance of their existing assets.

生產力升級和解決方案同比增長超過 30%，因為我們一直致力於幫助客戶提高現有資產的性能。

Furthermore, we signed several new multiyear customer support contracts.

此外，我們簽署了幾份新的多年客戶支持合同。

These multiyear contracts enable Lam to significantly reduce customers' running costs, while generating a recurring revenue stream for Lam.

這些多年期合同使 Lam 能夠顯著降低客戶的運營成本，同時為 Lam 創造經常性收入來源。

Now turning to WFE.

現在轉向 WFE。

We estimate 2019 WFE ended in the $46 billion to $47 billion range, slightly higher than our prior mid-$40 billion estimate.

我們估計 2019 年 WFE 的收盤價在 460 億美元至 470 億美元之間，略高於我們之前預期的 400 億美元中值。

The increase was driven predominantly by higher foundry logic spending.

這一增長主要是由較高的代工邏輯支出推動的。

For calendar 2020, assuming no material impact from coronavirus on our full year outlook, our view calls for WFE spend in the mid- to high $50 billion range, supported by sustained strong spending in Foundry and Logic, and significantly for Lam, improved spending in memory led first by NAND.

對於 2020 年日曆，假設冠狀病毒對我們的全年前景沒有重大影響，我們認為 WFE 的支出在 500 億美元的中高水平，這得益於 Foundry 和 Logic 的持續強勁支出，而 Lam 的支出顯著改善內存首先由NAND主導。

Overall, we expect spending in Memory and Foundry logic segments to be up year-on-year in 2020.

總體而言，我們預計 2020 年內存和代工邏輯領域的支出將同比增長。

To wrap up, Lam delivered strong financial performance in calendar 2019.

最後，Lam 在 2019 日曆年實現了強勁的財務表現。

And as our March quarter guidance suggests, we're in a great position to drive higher in 2020 with the improvement in Memory spending.

正如我們 3 月季度指導所暗示的那樣，隨著內存支出的改善，我們在 2020 年處於推動更高水平的有利位置。

Lam's product pipeline is very strong, with more innovation on the way, and we look forward to sharing more with you at our upcoming Investor Day on March 3.

Lam 的產品線非常強大，更多創新正在進行中，我們期待在即將到來的 3 月 3 日投資者日與您分享更多信息。

Thanks.

謝謝。

And now here's Doug.

現在是道格。

Great.

偉大的。

Thank you, Tim.

謝謝你，蒂姆。

Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today in the middle of what I know is a very busy earnings season.

大家下午好，感謝你們今天在我所知道的一個非常繁忙的收益季節加入我們。

We concluded calendar year 2019 with a strong December quarterly performance.

我們以強勁的 12 月季度業績結束了 2019 日曆年。

Results ended up better than we expected, primarily due to a little bit stronger NAND investment as well as an uptick in our installed base business.

結果最終好於我們的預期，這主要是由於 NAND 投資有所增加以及我們的安裝基礎業務增加。

Our installed base business delivered another record year and continued to be a stable profitable business for us.

我們的安裝基礎業務又創造了創紀錄的一年，並繼續為我們帶來穩定的盈利業務。

And as Tim mentioned, from an earnings per share perspective, it was the second best year in our 40-year history.

正如蒂姆所說，從每股收益的角度來看，這是我們 40 年曆史上第二好的一年。

The December quarter results came in over the midpoint of guidance for all financial metrics, with diluted earnings per share essentially at the high end of our guidance range.

12 月季度的業績超過了所有財務指標的指導中點，每股攤薄收益基本上處於我們指導範圍的高端。

As Tim also noted, we're pleased with our performance in calendar year 2019 and we delivered solid profitability levels within a challenging memory environment.

正如 Tim 還指出的那樣，我們對 2019 日曆年的表現感到滿意，我們在充滿挑戰的內存環境中實現了穩健的盈利水平。

As we discussed at our earnings call last quarter, there were continued strong investments in the Foundry and Logic segments in the December quarter.

正如我們在上個季度的財報電話會議上所討論的那樣，在 12 月季度，Foundry 和 Logic 領域的投資持續強勁。

We had the highest system revenue dollars for the Foundry segment in our history, and the revenue concentration was at its highest level since the September 2016 quarter.

我們的 Foundry 部門擁有歷史上最高的系統收入，收入集中度處於自 2016 年 9 月季度以來的最高水平。

Foundry spending continued its focus on the 7- and 5-nanometer nodes and it represented 36% of our December quarter system revenue.

代工支出繼續專注於 7 納米和 5 納米節點，占我們 12 月季度系統收入的 36%。

The Logic and Other segment grew in dollar terms and was essentially flat with the prior quarter intensity level coming in at 12% of system revenues.

邏輯和其他部分以美元計算增長，與上一季度的強度水平基本持平，佔系統收入的 12%。

It was the highest Logic and Other revenue level in dollar terms in 2 years, driven by 10-nanometer, image sensors and other specialty markets.

在 10 納米、圖像傳感器和其他專業市場的推動下，以美元計算，這是 2 年來邏輯和其他方面的最高收入水平。

For Memory, the combined segment decreased to 52% of system revenues from the September quarter, which was at 64%.

對於內存來說，合併後的部分佔系統收入的比例從 9 月季度的 64% 下降到了 52%。

We had a decrease in the December quarter in the nonvolatile memory segment going from 38% to 35%.

我們在 12 月季度的非易失性存儲器領域從 38% 下降到 35%。

Quoted from a dollar perspective, revenue in the segment actually increased.

從美元的角度來看，該部門的收入實際上有所增加。

The DRAM segment decreased from 26% to 17% of system revenue.

DRAM 部分佔系統收入的比例從 26% 下降到 17%。

NAND investment continues to be focused on 64-, 96- and initial 128-layer devices.

NAND 投資繼續集中在 64 層、96 層和最初的 128 層設備上。

And DRAM spending continues to be primarily focused on node transitions.

DRAM 支出繼續主要集中在節點轉換上。

Revenues for the quarter were $2.584 billion, which was above the midpoint.

本季度收入為 25.84 億美元，高於中點。

In addition to the leading edge foundry and logic strength I mentioned, we saw continued investments in the China region, with the majority, again, coming from domestic Chinese customers.

除了我提到的領先的代工和邏輯實力外，我們看到在中國地區的持續投資，其中大部分再次來自中國國內客戶。

China geographic revenue came in at 29% of total revenue in December.

12 月，中國地域收入佔總收入的 29%。

Gross margin came in at 45.7%, 70 basis points above the midpoint.

毛利率為 45.7%，比中點高 70 個基點。

Strength in the December quarter gross margin is related to customer and product mix as well as increased factory utilization levels relative to the prior quarter.

12 月季度毛利率的強勁與客戶和產品組合以及相對於上一季度增加的工廠利用率水平有關。

I'll remind you, as I always do, that actual gross margins are a function of several factors such as business volumes, product mix and customer concentration, and you should expect to see some variability quarter-to-quarter.

我會像往常一樣提醒您，實際毛利率是業務量、產品組合和客戶集中度等幾個因素的函數，您應該期望看到季度間的一些變化。

Operating expenses for the December quarter came in at $481 million.

12 月季度的運營費用為 4.81 億美元。

Our variable compensation spending was higher in the quarter as it's tied to the increased level of profitability.

本季度我們的可變薪酬支出較高，因為它與盈利水平的提高有關。

Spending in the December quarter also increased due to the appreciation of the market during the quarter and the resulting impact on the cost of our deferred compensation plan.

由於本季度市場的升值以及對我們遞延薪酬計劃成本的影響，12 月季度的支出也有所增加。

As I've mentioned in the past, we do hedge this to mitigate the exposure to the income statement.

正如我過去提到的，我們確實對沖這一點以減輕損益表的風險。

However, because of the accounting rules, the offset to this expense shows up in other income and expense.

但是，由於會計規則，對這一費用的抵消出現在其他收入和費用中。

It's basically a neutral impact to earnings per share at the end of the day.

最終，這對每股收益的影響基本上是中性的。

We continue to invest in our critical research and development programs, and you'll hear more about our commitment to technology and productivity leadership at our upcoming Investors Day in March.

我們將繼續投資於我們的關鍵研發計劃，您將在 3 月即將到來的投資者日上聽到更多關於我們對技術和生產力領先地位的承諾。

I'd also remind you that as we look ahead to the 2020 calendar year, we'll see the normal seasonal spending increases related to the March quarter.

我還要提醒您，展望 2020 日曆年，我們將看到與 3 月季度相關的正常季節性支出增長。

Operating income in the December quarter was $700 million and operating margin was 27.1%, essentially at the midpoint of guidance.

12 月季度的營業收入為 7 億美元，營業利潤率為 27.1%，基本處於指導值的中點。

Our non-GAAP tax rate in the quarter was 12.5%.

我們本季度的非公認會計原則稅率為 12.5%。

I would like to highlight that the difference between the non-GAAP tax rate and the December quarter GAAP tax rate, which was 23.5%, was related to the reversal of the tax benefit from the Altera stock-based compensation case.

我想強調的是，非 GAAP 稅率與 12 月季度 GAAP 稅率之間的差異為 23.5%，這與 Altera 基於股票的薪酬案例的稅收優惠的逆轉有關。

I think you're seeing this from lots of companies in the technology space.

我認為您在技術領域的許多公司都看到了這一點。

You should expect the fluctuations in the tax rate will occur quarter-to-quarter.

您應該預計稅率的波動將逐季發生。

And as we look into the rate for the calendar year 2020, I expect it to be in the low-teens level.

當我們研究 2020 日曆年的利率時，我預計它會處於低青少年水平。

Other income expense was up slightly from the prior quarter at a total of approximately $13 million in expense.

其他收入支出比上一季度略有增加，總支出約為 1300 萬美元。

The main components of OI&E are interest income from our cash and investment balances offset by interest expense related to the outstanding debt.

OI&E 的主要組成部分是我們的現金和投資餘額的利息收入被與未償債務相關的利息支出所抵消。

You should expect that other income and expense will fluctuate quarter-to-quarter based on several market-related items, things like foreign exchange or what I'm talking about.

您應該預計其他收入和支出將根據幾個與市場相關的項目（例如外匯或我所說的內容）逐季度波動。

Moving on to capital return.

繼續資本回報。

For the December quarter, a $167 million of cash was deployed in dividends and $1 billion in share repurchase.

在 12 月季度，1.67 億美元的現金用於股息和 10 億美元的股票回購。

As we've frequently done in the past, the share repurchases were done through a structured share repurchase program that cover repurchases through the June 2020 quarter.

正如我們過去經常做的那樣，股票回購是通過結構性股票回購計劃完成的，該計劃涵蓋到 2020 年 6 月季度的回購。

We remain on track with our commitment to capital return.

我們繼續履行對資本回報的承諾。

For calendar year 2019, we completed $3 billion of our current $5 billion buyback authorization.

在 2019 日曆年，我們完成了當前 50 億美元的回購授權中的 30 億美元。

In total, our capital return activities represented approximately 158% of free cash flow in 2019.

總的來說，我們的資本回報活動約佔 2019 年自由現金流的 158%。

Diluted earnings per share was $4.01.

每股攤薄收益為 4.01 美元。

Our diluted shares continue to decline, and we ended the December quarter with diluted shares at approximately 150 million shares.

我們的稀釋股繼續下降，截至 12 月季度，我們的稀釋股約為 1.5 億股。

This is the eighth consecutive quarter where our diluted share count has declined.

這是我們稀釋後的股票數量連續第八個季度下降。

The share count includes a dilutive impact of approximately 5 million shares from the 2041 convertible notes.

股票數量包括來自 2041 年可轉換票據的約 500 萬股的攤薄影響。

And I'll remind you that the dilution schedule for the 2041 converts is available on our IR website for your reference.

我會提醒您，我們的 IR 網站上提供了 2041 轉換的稀釋時間表供您參考。

Let me now move to the balance sheet.

現在讓我談談資產負債表。

Our cash and short-term investments, including restricted cash, decreased in the December quarter to $4.9 billion from $5.8 billion in the September quarter.

我們的現金和短期投資（包括受限現金）在 12 月季度從 9 月季度的 58 億美元減少至 49 億美元。

The decrease quarter-to-quarter was due to the share repurchase and dividend activity, offset by cash flows from operations of $308 million.

環比下降是由於股票回購和股息活動，但被 3.08 億美元的運營現金流所抵消。

And as I've mentioned before, when you see business levels grow, working capital levels generally increase, which impacted our cash flow from operations in December.

正如我之前提到的，當您看到業務水平增長時，營運資金水平通常會增加，這影響了我們 12 月份的運營現金流。

We concluded calendar year 2019 with the second highest level of free cash flow in the company's history at over $2.3 billion.

我們以超過 23 億美元的公司歷史上第二高水平的自由現金流結束了 2019 日曆年。

I believe this truly demonstrates the sustainability of our business through a lower industry spend period.

我相信這通過較低的行業支出期真正證明了我們業務的可持續性。

DSO increased slightly due to the timing of collections to 72 days versus 69 days in the prior quarter.

由於收款時間從上一季度的 69 天增加到 72 天，DSO 略有增加。

Inventory turns improved to 3.7 turns from 3.2 in the September quarter.

庫存周轉率從 9 月季度的 3.2 提高到 3.7 週。

Both receivables and inventory grew in dollars during December as business levels increased.

隨著業務水平的提高，應收賬款和庫存在 12 月均以美元計增長。

Noncash expenses included approximately $46 million for equity compensation, $49 million for depreciation and $17 million for amortization.

非現金支出包括大約 4600 萬美元的股權補償、4900 萬美元的折舊和 1700 萬美元的攤銷。

December quarter capital expenditures increased to $62 million from $39 million in the September quarter.

12 月季度的資本支出從 9 月季度的 3900 萬美元增加到 6200 萬美元。

Ending headcount as of the December quarter was flat with the prior quarter at approximately 10,700 regular full-time employees.

截至 12 月季度末的員工人數與上一季度持平，約為 10,700 名正式全職員工。

We expect that as revenue levels are growing, we'll add headcount to support the increasing business.

我們預計隨著收入水平的增長，我們將增加員工人數以支持不斷增長的業務。

So now looking ahead, I'd like to provide our non-GAAP guidance for the March 2020 quarter.

所以現在展望未來，我想提供我們對 2020 年 3 月季度的非 GAAP 指導。

We're expecting revenue of $2.800 billion, plus or minus $200 million; gross margin of 46.5%, plus or minus 1 percentage point; operating margins of 28%, plus or minus 1 percentage point; and finally, earnings per share of $4.55, plus or minus $0.40 based on a share count of approximately 149 million shares.

我們預計收入為 28 億美元，上下浮動 2 億美元；毛利率46.5%，上下1個百分點；營業利潤率為 28%，上下浮動 1 個百分點；最後，每股收益為 4.55 美元，根據大約 1.49 億股的股票數量，正負 0.40 美元。

We see continued strength in Foundry and Logic spending going into the March quarter.

我們看到 Foundry 和 Logic 的支出將持續到 3 月季度。

And additionally, we see NAND spending continue to increase going into 2020.

此外，我們看到 NAND 支出將在 2020 年繼續增加。

The March quarter guidance reflects our current view of the business environment, including our assessment with the potential impact from the public health situation in China.

3 月季度指引反映了我們對商業環境的當前看法，包括我們對中國公共衛生狀況潛在影響的評估。

We see business disruptions potentially with both customers and suppliers, that are essentially extending the Lunar New Year holiday through February 9. Absent this situation, our numbers would have been somewhat higher.

我們看到客戶和供應商都可能出現業務中斷，這基本上將農曆新年假期延長至 2 月 9 日。如果沒有這種情況，我們的數字會更高一些。

We also increased the revenue and EPS ranges to take into consideration the uncertainty of the impact from these activities.

我們還增加了收入和每股收益範圍，以考慮到這些活動影響的不確定性。

We believe this is temporary, but the issue is developing day by day.

我們認為這是暫時的，但問題每天都在發展。

I think we're taking a prudent approach to what we're doing with the numbers.

我認為我們正在對我們正在處理的數字採取謹慎的態度。

So to conclude, we're well positioned heading into 2020.

總而言之，我們在進入 2020 年時處於有利位置。

We're on a strong trajectory to outperform based on our product portfolio as well as operational strategies.

基於我們的產品組合和運營策略，我們正處於強勁的發展軌道上。

And that concludes my prepared remarks.

我準備好的發言到此結束。

Operator, Tim and I would now like to open up the call for questions.

接線員、蒂姆和我現在想打開電話提問。

(Operator Instructions) And our first question will come from John Pitzer with Crédit Suisse.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自 Crédit Suisse 的 John Pitzer。

My first question just is going to focus in on the domestic China market.

我的第一個問題將集中在中國國內市場。

Doug, you were kind enough to tell us it was the majority of the China business in the December quarter.

道格，你很友善地告訴我們，這是 12 月季度中國業務的大部分。

I'm wondering if you can help us understand how much of a majority it was.

我想知道你是否可以幫助我們了解它佔了多少多數。

And what was the split between sort of Memory and Logic?

記憶和邏輯之間的區別是什麼？

And then as you look out to your WFE forecast growth of at least 20% in calendar year '20, how important is the domestic China market?

然後，當您看到您的 WFE 預測在 20 日曆年至少增長 20% 時，中國國內市場有多重要？

And how should we think about the Memory versus sort of the logic foundry side of that?

我們應該如何考慮內存與邏輯代工方面的區別？

Yes, I'll answer and then I'll let Tim add on.

是的，我會回答，然後讓蒂姆補充。

Yes, John, I'm not going to get into the habit every quarter of giving a precise quantification except to tell you, the majority in the December quarter was from domestic China.

是的，約翰，我不會養成每個季度都給出精確量化的習慣，除非告訴你，12 月季度的大部分來自中國國內。

And that's been the case the last couple of quarters.

過去幾個季度就是這種情況。

And the reason I've been mentioning that over the last couple of quarters is it's different than the last several years have been where the majority has actually come from the global multinationals.

我一直在提到過去幾個季度的原因是它與過去幾年不同的是，大多數人實際上來自全球跨國公司。

Then your question relative to how we're looking into 2020 in China.

然後是關於我們如何看待中國 2020 年的問題。

I think 2019 probably finished with WFE from the local China customers a little bit above $6 billion, something like that, and it's growing in 2020.

我認為 2019 年中國本地客戶的 WFE 可能會略高於 60 億美元，類似這樣，並且在 2020 年會增長。

And as we look into 2020, I think, John, probably it's up $2 billion to $3 billion is my best guess from local China.

展望 2020 年，我認為，約翰，可能會增加 20 億至 30 億美元，這是我對中國本土的最佳猜測。

And that spending is broad-based.

而且這種支出是廣泛的。

It's NAND, it's DRAM, it's Foundry and Logic.

它是 NAND，它是 DRAM，它是 Foundry 和 Logic。

So it's not one or the other, it's a broad-based set of customer spending.

所以這不是一個或另一個，它是一組基礎廣泛的客戶支出。

Tim, you want to add anything?

蒂姆，你想補充什麼嗎？

No, I think that pretty much covers it.

不，我認為這幾乎涵蓋了它。

And then guys as my follow-on, just on WFE and kind of your share, Tim, as you talked about in your prepared comments, you've done a nice job kind of gaining your share of WFE.

然後作為我的後續人員，就 WFE 和你的分享，蒂姆，正如你在準備好的評論中所說的那樣，你在獲得你的 WFE 份額方面做得很好。

Is 2020 a year where that becomes a little bit more difficult with sort of the addition of EUV?

隨著 EUV 的加入，2020 年會變得更加困難嗎？

Or how important is the EUV to your growth projections this year?

或者 EUV 對您今年的增長預測有多重要？

And as we think about EUV deployment, is that a good leading indicator for your future business?

當我們考慮 EUV 部署時，這是否是您未來業務的良好領先指標？

Or how should we think about that?

或者我們應該怎麼想？

Well, yes, I think that we've talked about EUV a number of times.

嗯，是的，我認為我們已經多次討論過 EUV。

And so I guess, maybe I'll just repeat a few of the things I've said and maybe add a couple of comments.

所以我想，也許我會重複我所說的一些事情，也許會添加一些評論。

In general, what we've said is that technology transitions themselves are very good for Lam.

總的來說，我們所說的是技術轉型本身對 Lam 非常有利。

We have highlighted a number of times that Lam's served market actually grows at each technology node within foundry logic, even with the introduction of EUV.

我們多次強調，Lam 服務的市場實際上在代工邏輯內的每個技術節點都在增長，即使引入了 EUV。

So really, what we want is we want the market and our customers to be able to keep moving their technologies forward.

所以真的，我們想要的是我們希望市場和我們的客戶能夠繼續推動他們的技術向前發展。

Specific to patterning, as you move from, say, 7- to 5-nanometer, even in the case of EUV, what you're starting to see is the increased use of more high-quality hard masks moving away from spin on dielectric towards deposition methods like PECVD, where Lam has a very strong position.

具體到圖案化，當你從 7 納米到 5 納米時，即使是在 EUV 的情況下，你開始看到的是更多高質量硬掩模的使用增加，從自旋電介質轉向像PECVD這樣的沉積方法，Lam在其中佔有非常強大的地位。

And so in many cases, our SAM is actually increasing because we're pulling in applications that before were actually done with older processes and now they're coming into our more critical space.

因此，在許多情況下，我們的 SAM 實際上正在增加，因為我們正在引入以前實際使用舊流程完成的應用程序，現在它們正在進入我們更關鍵的領域。

And so with that, we see SAM increase.

因此，我們看到 SAM 增加了。

And therefore, even with EUV, we see a growing market for ourselves.

因此，即使使用 EUV，我們也看到了自己的市場不斷增長。

Doug talked about highest dollars from foundry logic.

道格談到了代工邏輯的最高收入。

And that's just, I think, further evidence because we're seeing technology investments right now at those EUV nodes.

我認為，這只是進一步的證據，因為我們現在在這些 EUV 節點上看到了技術投資。

Now as far as the leading indicator, sure, what we said is that EUV is, obviously, those shipments are signs of these more complex technology nodes and again, our SAM grows where opportunity grows.

現在就領先指標而言，當然，我們所說的是，顯然，這些出貨量是這些更複雜技術節點的標誌，而且我們的 SAM 在機會增長的地方增長。

And then, John, the only thing I would add, as you think about wallet share of WFE going into 2020, I think, you know our SAM and share in our NAND is very good.

然後，約翰，我唯一要補充的是，當您考慮到 2020 年 WFE 的錢包份額時，我認為，您知道我們的 SAM 並且在我們的 NAND 中的份額非常好。

And clearly, 2020, our view is going to be a stronger investment period for the NAND industry as we've seen kind of pricing and profitability stabilize.

很明顯，我們認為 2020 年將是 NAND 行業更強勁的投資期，因為我們已經看到定價和盈利能力趨於穩定。

So our share of wallet, actually, in addition to the EUV commentary, Tim had, is actually going to have a tailwind from the fact that NAND spending, I think, will be stronger I would say.

因此，實際上，除了 Tim 的 EUV 評論之外，我們的錢包份額實際上會從 NAND 支出這一事實中獲得順風，我認為，我會說，我會說。

Our next question comes from C.J. Muse with Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自於 Evercore 的 C.J. Muse。

I guess, first question on WFE.

我想，關於 WFE 的第一個問題。

If you think about the roughly $8 billion to $10 billion increase year-on-year into 2020, can you tell us how much of that is Memory versus foundry logic?

如果您考慮到 2020 年同比增長約 80 億至 100 億美元，您能否告訴我們其中有多少是內存與代工邏輯？

Is that kind of a 80-20 split?

那是80-20的分裂嗎？

And then as part of that, are you including the material uplift in DRAM within that?

然後作為其中的一部分，您是否將 DRAM 的材料提升包括在內？

Or is that something that could be a source of further upside?

或者這可能是進一步上漲的來源？

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

C.J. great question.

C.J. 好問題。

I don't think we're going to give you the exact breakout, but I think we've characterized it as -- I think maybe you can look back to what we said as we were exiting last year.

我不認為我們會給你確切的突破，但我認為我們已經將其描述為 - 我認為也許你可以回顧一下我們去年退出時所說的話。

What we said was that we were seeing very strong spending in foundry logic, and that we were just starting to see the early signs of improvement in NAND, and we felt that DRAM would come after the NAND market had improved.

我們所說的是，我們看到代工邏輯方面的支出非常強勁，而且我們剛剛開始看到 NAND 改善的早期跡象，我們認為 DRAM 將在 NAND 市場改善之後出現。

And so I think what you're seeing in our outlook for 2020 is that starting to play out, except for, again, sustained strong spending in Foundry and Logic.

所以我認為你在我們對 2020 年的展望中看到的是，除了 Foundry 和 Logic 的持續強勁支出之外，它開始發揮作用。

So maybe the emphasis on sustained and a strong uptick in NAND spending, which, as Doug just commented, is a significant tailwind for us in terms of our SAM as a percent of WFE.

因此，也許強調 NAND 支出的持續和強勁增長，正如 Doug 剛剛評論的那樣，就我們的 SAM 佔 WFE 的百分比而言，這對我們來說是一個重要的順風。

Relative to DRAM, I think we characterized last year primarily as a technology investment year with very little capacity additions.

相對於 DRAM，我認為去年我們主要將其描述為技術投資年，產能增加很少。

And I would say that, in general, our outlook this year is that, that doesn't change much, at least until it's later in the year.

我想說的是，總的來說，我們今年的前景是，不會有太大變化，至少在今年晚些時候之前是這樣。

So I'd say primarily sustained strong Foundry and Logic spending -- Foundry and Logic and a strong uptick in NAND.

所以我想說主要是持續強勁的 Foundry 和 Logic 支出——Foundry 和 Logic 以及 NAND 的強勁增長。

Great.

偉大的。

And as a follow-up question on the service side.

作為服務方面的後續問題。

Thank you for providing the installed base numbers.

感謝您提供已安裝的基數。

Very helpful.

很有幫助。

So up, I think, 12% in calendar '18, up 9% in calendar '19.

所以，我認為，在 18 年日曆中增加了 12%，在 '19 日曆中增加了 9%。

Can you help us kind of think about what the growth rate for service could look like?

你能幫我們想想服務的增長率會是什麼樣子嗎？

And is it fair to say that service in 2019 reached roughly mid-30s of total revenues?

可以公平地說，2019 年的服務收入大約達到了總收入的 30 多歲左右嗎？

So I'll take the last one.

所以我會選擇最後一個。

It wasn't quite that high, C.J., but it was comfortably above 30% in 2019.

C.J. 並沒有那麼高，但在 2019 年輕鬆超過 30%。

I'll give you that much.

我給你那麼多。

Yes.

是的。

We're -- I think that we're very confident.

我們 - 我認為我們非常有信心。

We've said that because of the growing installed base, the overall customer support business grows every year.

我們已經說過，由於安裝基數不斷增長，整體客戶支持業務每年都在增長。

How it grows each year, I've talked a little bit about the dynamic where depending on where you are in kind of utilization and spending and customers will spend on different things.

它每年如何增長，我已經談到了動態，這取決於你在何種情況下的利用率和支出以及客戶將在不同的事情上花費。

I highlighted a very strong year for us in 2019 on productivity upgrades, which is one of the things customers do when they're looking to squeeze a little bit more out of the assets they already have in their fabs, and we saw a lot of that last year.

我強調了 2019 年對我們來說在生產力升級方面非常強勁的一年，這是客戶希望從晶圓廠已有資產中榨取更多資產時所做的事情之一，我們看到了很多那是去年。

I think that as you transition now to a very busy year and customers ramping aggressively, then you'll find yourself much more in these spares and some of the value-added services part.

我認為，當您現在過渡到非常忙碌的一年並且客戶積極增加時，您會發現自己更多地關注這些備件和一些增值服務部分。

But in general, given the dynamics of that market and our product portfolio, we feel very confident about its ability to grow year-on-year with the installed base.

但總的來說，鑑於該市場的動態和我們的產品組合，我們對其隨著安裝基數同比增長的能力充滿信心。

Our next question comes from Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Harlan Sur。

Good job on the solid business execution.

在紮實的業務執行方面做得很好。

With the complexity of the manufacturing process, combined with tighter specifications, maybe longer install and qual times, on average, from the time that you ship a tool to the time that, that tool is put into full volume production, I think greenfield is around 6 months.

由於製造過程的複雜性，再加上更嚴格的規格，可能更長的安裝和質量時間，平均而言，從您運送工具到該工具投入批量生產的時間，我認為綠地就在附近6個月。

Is this lead time around the same time for conversion and incremental capacity expansion?

轉換和增量容量擴展的提前期是否大致相同？

And the reason why I ask is, I just want to do a sanity check that for some of the memory shipment goodness that you're seeing hopefully, this is going to be layering on the in sync with the demand pull for memory, which is typically more kind of middle to kind of second half of the year weighted?

我問的原因是，我只是想做一個健全性檢查，對於你希望看到的一些內存出貨量，這將與內存需求拉動同步分層，即通常是下半年到下半年的加權？

I don't think we've really broken it out.

我認為我們並沒有真正打破它。

In fact, I don't know that I could even really speak to a material difference in lead times.

事實上，我什至不知道我是否真的能說出交貨時間的實質性差異。

I guess, if I caught your question, it was -- does a conversion have approximately the same lead time for the upgrade to take place and the product to be qual-ed.

我想，如果我發現了您的問題，那就是 - 轉換是否具有大致相同的升級時間和產品合格的前置時間。

And if that was the question, I would say that they're not dramatically different in terms of the cycle time.

如果這是問題所在，我會說它們在周期時間方面並沒有太大的不同。

Yes.

是的。

And Harlan, maybe I'm guessing what your question might be.

還有Harlan，也許我猜你的問題可能是什麼。

I mean, when we look at the way spending occurred in the second half of '19 in NAND, and I'll remind you, we've been saying this for a while.

我的意思是，當我們查看 19 年下半年 NAND 的支出方式時，我會提醒你，我們已經說了一段時間了。

We exited the year, we believe the industry supply growth 30% year-on-year.

我們今年退出，我們認為行業供應量同比增長30%。

Based on the investments we saw occurring in the second half of '19, we believe that rate will decline, supply growth will decline into the first half of '20, right?

根據我們在 19 年下半年看到的投資，我們認為利率會下降，供應增長將下降到 20 年上半年，對吧？

And so you're starting to see an uptick in investment that will have a lag effect to it, and it won't immediately be producing output.

因此，您開始看到投資增加，這將對其產生滯後效應，並且不會立即產生產出。

I think that's inherently what you're asking, right?

我認為這本質上就是您要問的，對嗎？

Exactly.

確切地。

That's exactly right.

這是完全正確的。

And I appreciate the response.

我很感激你的回應。

And actually, as a follow on to that.

實際上，作為對此的後續。

So you guys had anticipated NAND bit supply growth exiting 2019 around 30% below the demand rate.

所以你們預計 2019 年 NAND 位供應增長將比需求率低 30% 左右。

I think some of your customers in DRAM were saying bit supply kind of low to mid-teens, again, below kind of the demand rate.

我想你們的一些 DRAM 客戶說位供應量在十幾歲到十幾歲之間，再次低於需求率。

So given the improving fundamentals in memory this year, kind of extrapolating from your customer equipment requirements this year, how do you guys see bit supply growth in NAND and DRAM this year from kind of the depressed levels exiting last year?

因此，鑑於今年內存基本面的改善，從今年客戶設備需求推斷，你們如何看待今年 NAND 和 DRAM 的位供應增長與去年退出的低迷水平相比？

Yes.

是的。

So you've got it exactly right what we said.

所以你說的完全正確。

We exited the year well below the long-term demand trend.

我們在遠低於長期需求趨勢的情況下退出了這一年。

And actually, even with the guidance we've just given, we actually see ourselves under growing long-term demand this year in terms of bit supply growth, both in NAND and in DRAM.

實際上，即使按照我們剛剛給出的指導，我們實際上也看到今年在 NAND 和 DRAM 的位供應增長方面，我們面臨著不斷增長的長期需求。

Our next question will come from Atif Malik with Citi.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Atif Malik 和 Citi。

Good job on results and guide.

在結果和指導方面做得很好。

If I look at your top line growth historically, you outperformed WFE by 2x or so.

如果我從歷史上看你的收入增長，你的表現比 WFE 高出 2 倍左右。

How should we think about your top line growth relative to WFE for this year?

我們應該如何看待您今年相對於 WFE 的收入增長？

Atif, the color I'd give you is, again, what I've already said is, I think it's an uptick in NAND investment.

Atif，我給你的顏色是，我已經說過了，我認為這是 NAND 投資的上升。

Our SAM in NAND is really strong.

我們在 NAND 中的 SAM 非常強大。

Our share in NAND is really strong.

我們在 NAND 中的份額非常強大。

And so to the extent that NAND is driving an uptick in WFE, Lam will do really well.

因此，在 NAND 推動 WFE 上升的程度上，Lam 會做得很好。

And you've seen that over the years, in times when memory is spending more, we do real well; and when it's going the other way, we do less well.

多年來，您已經看到，在內存消耗更多的時候，我們做得很好；當情況相反時，我們做得不太好。

You should expect the same thing.

你應該期待同樣的事情。

I'm not going to quantify it for you, whether history is a good indicator.

我不打算為你量化它，歷史是否是一個好的指標。

I'm not completely sure.

我不完全確定。

But I'll be very disappointed if we don't outperform this year.

但如果我們今年沒有表現出色，我會非常失望。

Very helpful, Doug.

非常有幫助，道格。

And as a follow-up, your WFE number for this year is even bigger than what we were thinking, $55 billion.

作為後續，你今年的 WFE 數字甚至比我們想像的還要大，550 億美元。

Can you just talk about the opportunity in image sensor, advanced packaging, things like that?

您能談談圖像傳感器、先進封裝等領域的機會嗎？

I mean how big that number is in your WFE number for this year?

我的意思是這個數字在你今年的 WFE 數字中有多大？

Yes, we put that in our Logic and Other space.

是的，我們把它放在我們的邏輯和其他空間中。

And what Tim indicated, as we expect Foundry and Logic to grow 19% to 20%.

正如 Tim 所說，我們預計 Foundry 和 Logic 將增長 19% 到 20%。

And I don't know the exact image sensor number, so I can't answer your exact question.

而且我不知道確切的圖像傳感器編號，所以我無法回答您的確切問題。

It's a secular grower for sure.

這肯定是一個世俗的種植者。

But in the grand scheme of how big Foundry and Logic is, it's actually not all that big, but it is something we do really, really well in terms of the TSV aspect of image sensors.

但在 Foundry 和 Logic 有多大的宏偉計劃中，它實際上並沒有那麼大，但就圖像傳感器的 TSV 方面而言，這是我們做的非常非常好的事情。

Yes.

是的。

All I would add is one of the reasons you've heard us talk a lot more about specialty technologies and some of the products that we introduced in 2019, really focusing on heterogeneous integration and advanced packaging and MRAM and the image sensors is because many of those items are somewhat growing year-by-year from applications that are a little bit decoupled from the larger WFE cycle.

我要補充的是您聽到我們更多地談論專業技術和我們在 2019 年推出的一些產品的原因之一，真正專注於異構集成和先進封裝以及 MRAM 和圖像傳感器是因為許多這些項目從與更大的 WFE 週期有點脫鉤的應用程序中逐年增長。

And so again, even last year as WFE was down, we were setting records and what we kind of refer to as our specialty technologies business, which is primarily served by the Reliant tools.

同樣，即使去年 WFE 下降，我們也在創造記錄，我們稱之為專業技術業務，主要由 Reliant 工具提供服務。

And so, yes, I think you can continue to see us focus in those areas because they are places where our technology plays very well.

所以，是的，我認為你可以繼續看到我們專注於這些領域，因為它們是我們的技術發揮得很好的地方。

And as Doug said, we can -- by bringing the right technology and cost point, we can really gain quite a large portion of that market.

正如道格所說，我們可以——通過採用正確的技術和成本點，我們可以真正獲得相當大的市場份額。

Our next question will come from Vivek Arya with Bank of America Securities.

我們的下一個問題將來自美國銀行證券公司的 Vivek Arya。

And congratulations on the strong and consistent execution.

並祝賀強大而一致的執行力。

I have 2 questions as well.

我也有2個問題。

The first one, I'm curious what goes into your WFE calculation just because it's such a strong outlook for this year?

第一個，我很好奇你的 WFE 計算是因為今年的前景如此強勁嗎？

Is it orders?

是訂單嗎？

Is it Capex?

是資本支出嗎？

Is it memory pricing assumption, I'm just curious what goes into it?

是內存定價假設嗎，我只是好奇其中的內容？

Then as part of that, if you could also give us some color on how you think the shape of WFE looks like first half versus second half?

那麼作為其中的一部分，如果你也可以給我們一些顏色，你認為 WFE 的形狀看起來像上半場和下半場？

Yes.

是的。

I'll go through it, and then I'm sure Tim will have comments on that.

我會通過它，然後我相信蒂姆會對此發表評論。

I mean, we go after this in a couple of different ways.

我的意思是，我們以幾種不同的方式來追求這個。

We talk to customers, first and foremost.

我們首先與客戶交談。

Customers tell us, here's our plan, here's what we think we're going to do kind of customer by customer, fab by fab.

客戶告訴我們，這是我們的計劃，這是我們認為我們將逐個客戶、逐個晶圓廠做的事情。

So that's the bottoms-up approach to it.

所以這是自下而上的方法。

It doesn't mean it's exactly precisely correct, it changes.

這並不意味著它完全正確，它會改變。

Customers' plans can change, but that's one aspect of how we come at it.

客戶的計劃可能會改變，但這是我們實現這一目標的一個方面。

The second aspect is actually a tops-down approach, which is we take a read on, okay, what is global GP going to look like this year?

第二個方面實際上是自上而下的方法，就是我們看一下，好吧，今年全球GP會是什麼樣子？

What does that mean for electronics demand?

這對電子產品需求意味著什麼？

What does that mean for IC unit and semi revenue growth?

這對 IC 單位和半導體收入增長意味著什麼？

And what does that mean relative to wafers and technology?

相對於晶圓和技術，這意味著什麼？

And then we try to correlate the 2 approaches together.

然後我們嘗試將這兩種方法關聯在一起。

We don't always get it perfect, Vivek, but it's a pretty robust process, and I think we do a decent job, but we don't always get it exactly right, but we do our best.

我們並不總是做到完美，Vivek，但這是一個相當穩健的過程，我認為我們做得不錯，但我們並不總是做到完全正確，但我們會盡力而為。

I don't know, Tim, anything?

我不知道，蒂姆，有什麼事嗎？

Yes.

是的。

No, I think it stems, as Doug said, from pretty extensive conversations with customers.

不，正如道格所說，我認為這源於與客戶的廣泛對話。

One of the nice things about this business is that we have developed very deep relationships with the customers, and they're just as interested in having us deliver the technology they need on time.

這項業務的好處之一是我們與客戶建立了非常深厚的關係，他們同樣有興趣讓我們按時交付他們需要的技術。

And so I think it's pretty open sharing about when tools are needed, when the ramp is going to occur.

因此，我認為關於何時需要工具、何時會出現斜坡是非常開放的分享。

So that factors quite a bit into the calculation.

因此，這在計算中佔了相當大的比重。

And anything on first half versus second half?

上半場和下半場有什麼關係嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I think, Vivek, it's going to be a little bit of a first half weighted year, really driven by Foundry and Logic.

我認為，Vivek，這將是上半年的重要一年，真正由 Foundry 和 Logic 推動。

I think Memory spending is going to be pretty steady through the year.

我認為今年的內存支出將相當穩定。

But I think Foundry is probably a little bit first half weighted.

但我認為 Foundry 上半年可能有點偏重。

Got it.

知道了。

And for my follow-up, your installed base has grown at a 10%, 11% annual base in the last 5 years, which is pretty remarkable given the volatility in WFE.

在我的後續行動中，您的安裝基數在過去 5 年中以每年 10% 和 11% 的速度增長，考慮到 WFE 的波動性，這非常了不起。

My question is, how fast have your services kind of grown annually during those 5 years?

我的問題是，在這 5 年中，您的服務每年增長的速度有多快？

And how should we think about the installed base and services growth for the next 2 to 3 years?

我們應該如何看待未來 2 到 3 年的安裝基礎和服務增長？

Yes, I'll give you a little color.

是的，我會給你一點顏色。

I mean, the best indicator of how its growing is just chamber count because that really is what drives the business opportunity.

我的意思是，它如何增長的最佳指標只是房間數量，因為這確實是推動商業機會的因素。

Having said that, we're doing a lot of innovative things around advanced service offerings in different ways to deliver value to customers that drives our objective, Vivek, at the end of the day to have dollars grow faster than just the growth in chamber count.

話雖如此，我們正在以不同的方式圍繞先進的服務產品做很多創新的事情，以向客戶提供價值，從而推動我們的目標，Vivek，最終讓美元增長速度超過房間數量的增長.

And if you come see us in March, we'll probably give you a little more color around what this business looks like.

如果您在 3 月份來見我們，我們可能會為您提供更多關於這項業務的信息。

Yes.

是的。

And I think the only thing I'd add, I made comments about the productivity upgrades and solutions part of that business.

我想我唯一要補充的是，我對該業務的生產力升級和解決方案部分發表了評論。

It's -- obviously, every customer is driving to reduce their running costs in their fabs.

很明顯，每個客戶都在努力降低其晶圓廠的運營成本。

And so between upgrades for existing tools as well as new really data-enabled services that we offer to help recover tools more quickly with less labor and with a higher probability of first-time right.

因此，在現有工具的升級以及我們提供的新的真正支持數據的服務之間，我們提供幫助以更少的勞動力更快地恢復工具並且具有更高的首次成功概率。

Those -- that part of the business is actually growing very fast, and I think has the ability, just as it did this past year, growing 30% year-on-year, the ability to outgrow the installed base.

那些——這部分業務實際上增長得非常快，而且我認為有能力，就像去年一樣，同比增長 30%，有能力超過已安裝的基礎。

And so we're investing in that area.

因此，我們正在該領域進行投資。

Our next question will come from Krish Sankar with Cowen and Company.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Cowen and Company 的 Krish Sankar。

And congrats guys on the great results.

並祝賀你們取得了很好的成績。

Just 2 quick ones, either Tim or Doug.

只有兩個快速的，蒂姆或道格。

When you look at the calendar year 2020, and like you mentioned, WFE is probably front-half loaded, mostly foundry logic biased going towards Memory in the back half.

當您查看 2020 日曆年時，就像您提到的那樣，WFE 可能是前半部分負載，主要是代工廠邏輯偏向於後半部分的內存。

Are there any nuances in gross margin we should worry about?

我們應該擔心毛利率的任何細微差別嗎？

Or is there like one segment has a better gross margin profile than the other?

或者是否有一個細分市場的毛利率比另一個細分市場更好？

And then I had a follow-up.

然後我進行了跟進。

No, there's nothing specific to gross margin by segment that you should be thinking about.

不，您不應該考慮按細分市場劃分的毛利率。

It varies with customer mix.

它因客戶組合而異。

It varies with product mix and then overall business volumes is what, I think, I've said every single quarter that I've been at the company, it's the same language.

它因產品組合而異，然後是整體業務量，我認為，我在公司的每個季度都說過，它是同一種語言。

So there isn't anything specific by segment.

所以沒有任何具體的細分。

Got it.

知道了。

Got it.

知道了。

Doug, and then just a follow-up on the OpEx.

Doug，然後只是對 OpEx 的跟進。

I understand March has the seasonality with all the merit increase, et cetera, but how do we think about OpEx on a go-forward basis?

我知道 3 月具有所有優點增加的季節性，等等，但是我們如何看待 OpEx 在前進的基礎上？

It's like 18% of sales a good bogey to use?

好像18%的銷售額好忌用？

Or is the $500 million plus run rate, quarterly run rate, the right metric?

還是 5 億美元加上運行率、季度運行率是正確的指標？

If you look at what we've done over the longer term, we've let spending grow at a rate less than the top line has grown over the last, I don't know, since we brought the 2 companies together.

如果你看看我們在長期內所做的事情，我們讓支出的增長速度低於過去的收入增長速度，我不知道，因為我們將兩家公司合併在一起。

And I think you're going to see us thinking that same way as we see a stronger year in front of us.

我想你會看到我們的想法與我們看到更強勁的一年一樣。

And again, come see us in March, I'll give you an updated financial model as well.

再說一次，三月份來見我們，我也會給你一個更新的財務模型。

All right.

好的。

Next, we have a question from Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

接下來，我們有一個來自瑞銀的蒂莫西·阿庫裡（Timothy Arcuri）的問題。

Doug, I had 2. First of all, China has been running about 30% of revenue for the past 3 quarters.

道格，我有 2 個。首先，在過去的三個季度中，中國的收入約佔總收入的 30%。

Should we expect it to be about 30% as a percent of revenue in March?

我們是否應該期望它在 3 月份佔收入的 30% 左右？

And I assume within that, that it would still be like the vast majority of it would be the domestic guys.

而且我假設在其中，它仍然會像絕大多數人一樣是國內的人。

Is that correct?

那是對的嗎？

Yes.

是的。

I'm not going to get into kind of telling you quarter-by-quarter what it is.

我不會逐個季度地告訴你它是什麼。

Let me remind you what I said earlier.

讓我提醒你我之前說過的話。

I think it grows $2 billion to $3 billion off a base of 6-ish -- a little above $6 billion for the year.

我認為它在 6-ish 的基礎上增長了 20 億到 30 億美元——今年略高於 60 億美元。

It will be lumpy.

它會很粗糙。

Tim, you know, how this goes.

蒂姆，你知道，這是怎麼回事。

There's a project that takes tools, then it has to ramp it for a while and digest it and something else kicks in.

有一個項目需要工具，然後它必須將它傾斜一段時間並消化它，然後其他東西就會啟動。

I'm not going to give you exact color on the March guide, but I think it will be a good year for local China this year.

我不會在三月指南上給你確切的顏色，但我認為今年對中國本土來說將是一個好年頭。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

Doug, and then I guess, this as a kind of a bigger picture question, but given what's going on with export control, I mean, you're saying that domestic China is going to add maybe $2 billion to $3 billion to 2020 WFE.

道格，然後我想，這是一個更大的問題，但考慮到出口管制的情況，我的意思是，你是說中國國內將為 2020 年的 WFE 增加 20 億至 30 億美元。

Do you think that there's any of this incremental stuff going on within China, where customers are concerned about maybe someday down the road, they can't get access to tools?

您是否認為在中國發生了這些增量的事情，客戶擔心可能有一天他們無法使用工具？

And so maybe they're pulling in time lines of these fabs?

所以也許他們正在拉動這些晶圓廠的時間線？

Yes.

是的。

I guess, I'll take that one, Tim.

我想，我會接受那個，蒂姆。

But I mean, we've answered this a couple of times that we've seen no indication that the China buys or pull-ins.

但我的意思是，我們已經多次回答了這個問題，我們沒有看到中國購買或拉入的跡象。

There appear to be solid plans behind what they're trying to do.

他們試圖做的事情背後似乎有可靠的計劃。

And every tool we ship, they're trying to ramp as quickly as they can.

我們發布的每一個工具，他們都在盡可能快地升級。

So I really don't -- I don't think that plays into it.

所以我真的不 - 我不認為這有影響。

Having said that, we are watching what's going on with the talk about regulatory controls.

話雖如此，我們正在關注有關監管控制的討論的進展情況。

But at this point, no details that we could even really comment on.

但在這一點上，我們甚至無法真正評論任何細節。

Our next question comes from Joe Moore with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的喬摩爾。

I wonder, back to the topic of this China sovereign business, if you could give us some color on the number of customers, I think people tend to think about Memory, but just -- I'm not looking for specifics, but how much of it is Memory versus Other stuff?

我想知道，回到這個中國主權業務的話題，如果你能給我們一些關於客戶數量的顏色，我認為人們傾向於考慮內存，但只是 - 我不是在尋找細節，而是在尋找多少它是內存與其他東西？

And just an indication of the breadth that you're seeing?

只是表明您所看到的廣度？

Yes.

是的。

So Doug made a comment about the demand being pretty broad-based.

因此，Doug 就需求的廣泛性發表了評論。

I mean, we are seeing -- and again, you sort of think about what's great about our market right now is the breadth of driver -- end market drivers.

我的意思是，我們正在看到 - 再一次，你有點想我們現在市場的優點是驅動力的廣度 - 終端市場驅動力。

There's a lot of IoT and specialty technologies, whether it'd be automotive, power devices, image sensors.

有很多物聯網和專業技術，無論是汽車、電源設備還是圖像傳感器。

You kind of see all of that be -- people in China trying to address that end demand.

你會看到所有這些——中國的人們試圖滿足這一最終需求。

And so it's not isolated to any one thing.

所以它並不孤立於任何一件事。

Clearly, the uptick in Memory has outsized importance for Lam's revenue.

顯然，內存的增長對 Lam 的收入具有超乎尋常的重要性。

And obviously, we watch very closely what happens, especially in the NAND and DRAM areas.

顯然，我們非常密切關注發生的事情，尤其是在 NAND 和 DRAM 領域。

But really, our outlook in the $2 billion to $3 billion increase that Doug talked about in 2020 is pretty broad-based across a -- quite a number of customers.

但實際上，Doug 談到的 2020 年 20 億至 30 億美元的增長前景非常廣泛，涵蓋了相當多的客戶。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

And then you guys have talked about a kind of $14 billion -- or $70 billion 5-year WFE for NAND, kind of keeping us on a historic supply growth trajectory.

然後你們談到了 NAND 的 140 億美元——或 700 億美元的 5 年 WFE，這讓我們保持了歷史性的供應增長軌跡。

Is that still kind of the right ballpark?

那仍然是正確的球場嗎？

And we see -- it would seem to be quite a bit lower than that right now.

我們看到 - 它似乎比現在要低很多。

Is that still kind of the right framework for thinking about what WFE ought to be if we stay in the historical demand context?

如果我們停留在歷史需求背景下，這仍然是思考 WFE 應該是什麼的正確框架嗎？

Yes.

是的。

That's still the way we look at it.

這仍然是我們看待它的方式。

And our comment, you just said, we were quite a bit below that at this point.

我們的評論，你剛才說，在這一點上，我們的水平要低很多。

That was part of our commentary as I said, through last year, we were actually under-investing for long-term demand.

正如我所說，這是我們評論的一部分，直到去年，我們實際上對長期需求的投資不足。

That long-term demand is what establishes our $70 billion 5-year investment.

正是這種長期需求確立了我們 700 億美元的 5 年投資。

And even this year, as we see a strong uptick in NAND, we still, as we said, expect ourselves to exit the year, maybe slightly still below the long-term demand rate.

即使在今年，當我們看到 NAND 的強勁增長時，正如我們所說，我們仍然預計自己會在今年退出，可能仍略低於長期需求率。

Our next question comes from Patrick Ho with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自於 Stifel 的 Patrick Ho。

And congrats also.

也恭喜你。

Maybe, Doug, first, in terms of the installed base business and the growth you're seeing there and the sustainability of that growth.

也許，道格，首先，就安裝基礎業務和您在那裡看到的增長以及這種增長的可持續性而言。

Can you just give a little bit of color of how you've seen maybe over the last few years and going forward, how the business has kind of transitioned from, I guess, the transactional break-and-fix type of business to more of the contract base, which gives you a better visibility into the revenue and cash flow stream of that business?

您能否簡單介紹一下您在過去幾年和未來看到的情況，業務如何從我猜的交易中斷和修復類型的業務轉變為更多合同基礎，這可以讓您更好地了解該業務的收入和現金流？

Yes.

是的。

Patrick, I'm actually going to redirect it to Tim because I think he'll give you a more comprehensive answer than I would.

帕特里克，我實際上要把它重定向給蒂姆，因為我認為他會給你一個比我更全面的答案。

Doug, can certainly add something there.

道格，當然可以在那裡添加一些東西。

But I think we have seen that transition, and it's not just something that's happened to us.

但我認為我們已經看到了這種轉變，這不僅僅是發生在我們身上的事情。

It's been a strategy we've been driving to try to make this business less transactional, much more value-add and also much more long term.

這是我們一直在推動的一項戰略，試圖讓這項業務減少交易性，增加更多的附加值，也更加長期。

And I talked in my script about one way in which we do that, you transition the transactional to longer term through multiyear contracts.

我在腳本中談到了我們這樣做的一種方式，即通過多年合同將交易過渡到長期。

Even there, you're able to help the customer control their cost in a much more predictable way.

即使在那裡，您也可以幫助客戶以更可預測的方式控製成本。

And that gives us better visibility going forward, makes the business a little less transactional.

這為我們提供了更好的未來可見性，使業務的交易量減少了一些。

But I think the biggest way that we've transitioned this business from transactional to strategic is really through our focus on new products in the portfolio of services and upgrades that allow the customer to change the cost profile of running their installed base.

但我認為，我們將這項業務從交易業務轉變為戰略業務的最大方式實際上是通過我們專注於服務組合中的新產品和升級，讓客戶改變運行其已安裝基礎的成本概況。

And so in that way, you can make this much more strategic.

因此，通過這種方式，您可以使其更具戰略性。

I talked about the Corvus R technology, the self-maintaining tool, where the system itself replaces some of its consumable parts rather than having to have technicians go and do that work.

我談到了 Corvus R 技術，它是一種自我維護工具，系統本身替換了它的一些消耗部件，而不必讓技術人員去做這項工作。

When we engineer that type of new upgrade, you then create for yourself an entire new SAM within your installed base.

當我們設計這種類型的新升級時，您就可以在您的安裝基礎中為自己創建一個全新的 SAM。

And now, as customers recognize the value of that automated replacement system, they go and they upgrade to all of those older tools that are in the installed base, and it creates another source of ongoing revenue for us.

現在，隨著客戶認識到自動更換系統的價值，他們會去升級到已安裝基礎中的所有舊工具，這為我們創造了另一個持續收入來源。

And in the meantime, we're looking for that next upgrade to engineer and offer to the customers.

與此同時，我們正在尋找下一次升級以設計和提供給客戶。

And so I think it's becoming much more of a product and strategic refocused business.

所以我認為它正變得更像是一種產品和戰略重新聚焦的業務。

It just happens that its targeted market is the installed base that we've already shipped.

碰巧它的目標市場是我們已經發貨的安裝基礎。

Great.

偉大的。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And maybe as my follow-up question, and maybe for Tim, since you talked about in your prepared remarks about the ALD market and the market expansion opportunity there.

也許是我的後續問題，也許是蒂姆，因為你在準備好的評論中談到了 ALD 市場和那裡的市場擴張機會。

On top of the share gains you've made in that segment as well as the market growing, particularly in the foundry logic space, do you see additional applications and foundry logic driving this growth?

除了您在該領域取得的份額增長以及市場增長（特別是在代工邏輯領域）之外，您是否看到其他應用程序和代工邏輯推動了這種增長？

Or is there a opportunity for it to expand to other segments like DRAM?

還是有機會擴展到 DRAM 等其他領域？

Yes, it already is expanding into other markets.

是的，它已經在向其他市場擴張。

I mean, the only difference being, again, with ALD, you're essentially creating a deposition technology, a platform, and that's one thing that Lam is very good at is we're creating high productivity platforms.

我的意思是，唯一的區別是，再次使用 ALD，您實際上是在創建一種沉積技術、一個平台，而 Lam 非常擅長的一件事是我們正在創建高生產率的平台。

And then we expand the portfolio of films that we can deposit, and that creates more application opportunities for us.

然後我們擴大了我們可以存放的電影組合，這為我們創造了更多的應用機會。

So I talked about oxides and carbides.

所以我談到了氧化物和碳化物。

There are other films that are also being developed at the same time.

其他電影也在同時開發中。

And I think that, ultimately, every device type reaches a point where it needs to do some level of atomic layer processing.

而且我認為，最終，每種設備類型都需要進行某種程度的原子層處理。

And so long term, I think this is just where the technology is going.

從長遠來看，我認為這正是技術的發展方向。

That's why you see ALD starting to replace, as I said, some older process alternatives for certain steps.

這就是為什麼您看到 ALD 開始取代某些步驟的一些舊工藝替代方案的原因。

Our next question comes from Joe Quatrochi with Wells Fargo.

我們的下一個問題來自富國銀行的 Joe Quatrochi。

Congrats on the results.

祝賀結果。

I was curious on the NAND flash side.

我對 NAND 閃存方面很好奇。

I was wondering if you could talk a little bit about the amount of clean room space that you see across the industry today and that's empty.

我想知道您是否可以談談您今天在整個行業中看到的潔淨室空間的數量，而那是空的。

And then how do you think about just the industry's kind of views on filling it versus past cycles?

然後你如何看待行業對填補它的看法與過去的周期？

Joe, are you still there?

喬，你還在嗎？

Sorry, you broke off at the end I thought.

對不起，你在我想的最後中斷了。

Yes.

是的。

Okay.

好的。

There's clean room space out there in the industry, for sure, across all of the customer base.

毫無疑問，在所有客戶群中，行業中都有潔淨室空間。

And so what I always say is, in fact, I think, I don't know, a quarter or 2 ago, we talked about the fact that we were tracking double-digit number of new fabs in 2019.

所以我一直說的是，事實上，我認為，我不知道，在一個季度或兩個季度之前，我們談到了這樣一個事實，即我們在 2019 年跟踪了兩位數的新晶圓廠數量。

I think, the number is probably about the same in 2020, a lot of those being memory fabs.

我認為，2020 年的數字可能大致相同，其中很多是內存工廠。

The thing to understand with our customers is building the shell is, it's a cheap call option on the future, right?

我們的客戶要了解的是，構建外殼是，它是未來的廉價看漲期權，對嗎？

It doesn't mean they're going to equip it tomorrow, but it does indicate to you a long-term intention.

這並不意味著他們明天會裝備它，但它確實向你表明了一個長期的意圖。

And then they buy equipment when they really need the output.

然後他們在真正需要輸出時購買設備。

That's where the real money and capital gets deployed.

這就是真正的金錢和資本被部署的地方。

But there's plenty of clean room space out there.

但是那裡有很多潔淨室空間。

Yes.

是的。

I guess the only thing I'd add, I thought perhaps you were going to ask about the importance of clean room space and I was going to be able to tell you.

我想我唯一要補充的是，我想也許你會問潔淨室空間的重要性，我會告訴你的。

That's the -- one of the things that we focus on, you might have understood in the past from past commentary that a benefit of some of our products like the Strata, and why it's popular within the NAND market is, the number of wafers that we output from that tool per square meter of fab space that's consumed is actually the best in the industry.

這就是我們關注的事情之一，您可能在過去從過去的評論中了解到，我們的一些產品（如 Strata）的好處，以及它在 NAND 市場中受歡迎的原因是，我們使用該工具每平方米消耗的晶圓廠空間的輸出實際上是業內最好的。

That's an important metric.

這是一個重要的指標。

Even when Doug says, there's lots of fab space, which I certainly agree with, how they use it is always important to the customer.

即使 Doug 說有很多工廠空間，我當然同意，但他們如何使用它對客戶來說始終很重要。

And so again, as we think through platform design and launching new tools, what we call footprint density or throughput density is really one of the key metrics that we focus on.

同樣，當我們通過平台設計和推出新工具進行思考時，我們所說的足跡密度或吞吐量密度實際上是我們關注的關鍵指標之一。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And then just back on the services side.

然後回到服務方面。

Given that we should start to see, I would think, an acceleration in the growth of your installed base this year with just a rebound in Memory demand, should -- is it fair to us to think about accelerating year-over-year revenue growth for that business in 2020?

鑑於我們應該開始看到，我認為今年安裝基數的增長加速，而內存需求僅反彈，我們應該考慮加速收入同比增長嗎？ 2020 年的那項業務？

Joe, the way I generally think about it is, the chambers ship and then they monetize over a period of time after they ship.

喬，我通常認為的方式是，商會發貨，然後在發貨後的一段時間內獲利。

And so the fact that you saw chambers grow in 2019, that's a good indicator of what's going to drive growth in 2020.

因此，您看到商會在 2019 年增長的事實很好地表明了 2020 年將推動增長的因素。

That's how I generally think about.

我一般是這麼想的。

There's a little bit of a lag to it after the chamber count, which is why, historically, we've given you a chamber count number one time a year at the end of the year.

在房間計數之後會有一點延遲，這就是為什麼，從歷史上看，我們每年年底都會給你一次房間計數。

Our next question comes from Mehdi Hosseini with SIG.

我們的下一個問題來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini。

All the good ones have already been asked.

所有好的都已經被問過了。

Just a quick follow-up for Doug.

只是對道格的快速跟進。

How should we think about OpEx just roughly beyond the March quarter?

我們應該如何考慮大約在 3 月季度之後的運營支出？

Yes.

是的。

I kind of answered that already.

我已經回答過了。

And I kind of didn't answer it in how I answered it.

我有點沒有回答我的回答方式。

But what I said, I'll give you a new financial model in March.

但是我說的，我會在三月份給你一個新的財務模型。

Okay.

好的。

And what I said is, over the last several years, the same management team is here that's been around the company for a while.

我說的是，在過去的幾年裡，同樣的管理團隊已經在公司工作了一段時間。

We like to see revenue grow faster than that we want to let spending grow so that we deliver some leverage to the bottom line.

我們希望看到收入增長快於我們希望讓支出增長的速度，以便我們為底線提供一些影響力。

That's still very much how we think about it.

這仍然是我們的想法。

But your March quarter shows typical seasonal uptick.

但是您的 3 月季度顯示出典型的季節性增長。

And I know we have to wait until March 3. But as we model this kind of fine-tuning our estimate, should I think of your OpEx remaining at the minimum at the same level, it's not going to just be a onetime event?

而且我知道我們必須等到 3 月 3 日。但是當我們對這種微調進行建模時，我是否應該認為您的 OpEx 保持在同一水平的最低水平，這不會只是一次性事件嗎？

Yes, that's probably not an unreasonable way to be thinking about it for now, Mehdi.

是的，這可能不是一個不合理的思考方式，Mehdi。

All right.

好的。

Our next question comes from Mitch Steves with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Mitch Steves。

I think the majority have been answered, but I just want to clarify, maybe 2 small things.

我想大多數人都已經回答了，但我只是想澄清一下，也許是兩件小事。

So number one is the comments on DRAM.

所以第一是對 DRAM 的評論。

So it sounds like that's going to be up year-over-year for 2020.

所以聽起來這將在 2020 年同比增長。

I just want to make sure that's right.

我只是想確保這是正確的。

And there wasn't anything to read between there?

那裡沒有什麼可讀的嗎？

And then secondly, I don't expect numbers from this, but is the message that you guys believe you're going to gain more share in NAND relative to the Other markets in '20?

其次，我不指望這個數字，但是你們相信你們將在 20 年相對於其他市場在 NAND 中獲得更多份額的信息嗎？

I'll take the first one and then I'll let Tim comment on the share.

我會拿第一個，然後讓蒂姆評論分享。

I don't really see -- when I look at the WFE, the color that we just gave you a real recovery in NAND.

我真的沒有看到 - 當我查看 WFE 時，我們剛剛為您提供了 NAND 中真正恢復的顏色。

I wouldn't describe it that way -- sorry, in DRAM, in DRAM.

我不會那樣描述它——抱歉，在 DRAM 中，在 DRAM 中。

Clearly, in NAND, yes, Foundry and Logic continues to be strong.

顯然，在 NAND 中，是的，Foundry 和 Logic 繼續保持強勢。

DRAM is kind of a push, plus or minus.

DRAM 是一種推動，正負。

And what we see happening is, there's still a little bit of inventory out in the channel.

我們看到的情況是，渠道中仍有少量庫存。

It's got to get burned off.

它必須被燒掉。

And at some point, you can't continue to sustain supply growth below where demand growth is.

在某些時候，你不能繼續維持低於需求增長的供應增長。

And when we look at DRAM bit growth, we think supply growth in 2020 is below demand growth.

當我們查看 DRAM 位增長時，我們認為 2020 年的供應增長低於需求增長。

Yes.

是的。

And I think a little bit longer term and also relative to clearing the inventory, we've been very encouraged by comments we've heard about what we understand are drivers for DRAM.

而且我認為從長遠來看，相對於清理庫存，我們聽到的評論讓我們感到非常鼓舞，我們所了解的是 DRAM 的驅動因素。

The growth in the server market, the introduction of 5G, where you're seeing pretty substantial step-up in terms of DRAM content per handset.

服務器市場的增長，5G 的引入，你看到每部手機的 DRAM 內容有相當大的增長。

And so it's -- and I think Doug said this in the past, but it's even for DRAM, a little bit more matter of when, not if.

所以它是 - 我認為 Doug 過去說過，但它甚至適用於 DRAM，更多的是時間問題，而不是是否。

So I think it's just -- right now, we have a, as you said, maybe about a push for the outlook that we have just given you.

所以我認為這只是 - 現在，正如你所說，我們可能會推動我們剛剛給你的前景。

Your comment about NAND.

您對 NAND 的評論。

I guess, when we think about share or share of total spend, one of the things we've talked about is the strength for us in NAND, obviously, is that we are -- and our tools are key enablers of building taller and taller NAND stacks.

我想，當我們考慮份額或總支出份額時，我們談到的一件事是我們在 NAND 中的優勢，顯然，我們是——我們的工具是構建越來越高的關鍵推動力與非堆棧。

And as those stacks increase our share of total WFE continues to increase.

隨著這些堆棧的增加，我們在總 WFE 中的份額繼續增加。

And so given that year-on-year, we continue to see a greater portion of spend being spent on taller NAND devices, our share of total spend will increase.

因此，鑑於與去年同期相比，我們繼續看到更大比例的支出用於更高的 NAND 設備，我們在總支出中的份額將會增加。

Okay.

好的。

That makes perfect sense.

這很有意義。

Just really a small one if I could.

如果可以的話，只是一個很小的。

What was just like the dollar impact to the virus that you guys are taking out of the Q1, just to get an idea?

你們從第一季度拿出的美元對病毒的影響是什麼，只是為了了解一下？

I'm not going to describe the specific dollars.

我不會描述具體的美元。

It was an amount that we think is consistent with what we're hearing from customers and suppliers.

我們認為這個數字與我們從客戶和供應商那裡聽到的一致。

All right.

好的。

Our next question comes from Quinn Bolton with Needham & Company.

我們的下一個問題來自 Needham & Company 的 Quinn Bolton。

One near-term question, one longer term question.

一個近期問題，一個長期問題。

On the near-term question, given the travel restrictions in China around the coronavirus outbreak, can you guys say, are you guys having difficulty accessing some of the fabs, either in the installed base business or delivering new tools?

關於近期的問題，鑑于冠狀病毒爆發期間中國的旅行限制，你們能否說，你們是否難以進入某些晶圓廠，無論是在已安裝的基礎業務還是在交付新工具方面？

Or is it still somewhat business as usual and you have access to service the tools in the fab, you're able to deliver tools here in the near term?

或者它仍然像往常一樣，您可以訪問工廠中的工具，您可以在短期內交付工具？

well.

好。

I think very specifically, I think, most people are aware, the travel restrictions have been placed on travel in and out of Wuhan itself.

我想非常具體，我想大多數人都知道，出入武漢的旅行已經受到限制。

And so obviously, we can't travel into that area, where there are some customers located.

很明顯，我們不能進入有一些客戶所在的那個區域。

But in general, I think that, as Doug said, we're moving through the Lunar New Year, which now has been extended and got of abundance of caution Lam has also implemented travel restrictions for our people to kind of business-critical situations only.

但總的來說，我認為，正如道格所說，我們正在度過農曆新年，現在已經延長，並且非常謹慎，林還對我們的員工實施了旅行限制，只針對關鍵業務情況.

And I think from the standpoint of the impact and the way we've looked at it is, there could be delays of a few weeks in our -- in supply chain or shipments to customers.

而且我認為從影響和我們看待它的方式的角度來看，我們的供應鍊或向客戶發貨的時間可能會延遲幾週。

And we don't see that as any real change though to the demand picture that we've outlined.

儘管對我們概述的需求情況，我們並不認為這是任何真正的變化。

And therefore, we're really talking about just hopefully seeing this normalize over the next few weeks.

因此，我們真正談論的是希望在接下來的幾週內看到這種情況正常化。

Great.

偉大的。

That's helpful color.

這是有用的顏色。

And the longer term question is your 2020 WFE forecast, I think, is higher than probably what many of us were thinking.

我認為，更長期的問題是您對 2020 年 WFE 的預測可能高於我們許多人的想法。

I guess, as I look out to 2021, it sounds like DRAM is not part of the 2020 forecast.

我想，當我展望 2021 年時，聽起來 DRAM 不是 2020 年預測的一部分。

Do you think 2021, WFE can continue to trend higher if that DRAM spending comes back?

如果 DRAM 支出回升，您認為 2021 年 WFE 能否繼續走高？

You're kidding.

你在開玩笑。

You know we're not going to talk about (inaudible) '21 is.

你知道我們不會談論（聽不清）'21 是。

Listen when I think about it though the long-term growth drivers are totally intact.

仔細想想，儘管長期增長動力完全完好無損。

We've been talking about this for years, right?

我們已經討論了很多年了，對吧？

You got data exploding in society.

你的數據在社會上爆炸式增長。

You got cloud and hyperscale, the big seven, what have you, investing in more in equipment this year, that's good.

你有云計算和超大規模，七大，你有什麼，今年在設備上投資更多，這很好。

You've got 5G on the com line, that's good.

您的 com 線路上有 5G，這很好。

You've got density growing there in every phone.

每部手機的密度都在增長。

So the long term is really very positive for the industry and our position in the industry, enabling it, we feel really good about where we're sitting.

因此，從長遠來看，對行業和我們在行業中的地位非常有利，啟用它，我們對自己所處的位置感覺非常好。

Okay, operator, we have time for one more question, please.

好的，接線員，我們有時間再問一個問題。

Okay.

好的。

My last question comes from Sidney Ho with Deutsche Bank.

我的最後一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Sidney Ho。

Great.

偉大的。

My first question is on the Memory spending this year.

我的第一個問題是關於今年的內存支出。

If things play out the way you think, are you thinking that NAND CapEx will still be below that $70 billion run rate?

如果事情按照您的想法發展，您是否認為 NAND 資本支出仍將低於 700 億美元的運行率？

I know you said that you weighted below the 40% bit supply growth.

我知道你說過你的權重低於 40% 的比特供應增長。

I guess, in a way I'm trying to parse out that $8 billion to $10 billion increase in WFE you guys forecasting?

我想，在某種程度上，我試圖解析你們預測的 80 億到 100 億美元的 WFE 增長？

Yes.

是的。

Sidney, we never give you segment by segment WFE numbers, and I'm not going to now.

西德尼，我們從不逐段為您提供 WFE 編號，我現在也不會。

It is going to grow this year.

今年它會增長。

And as Tim described, we think bit growth in NAND is in the first half anyway, below where long-term demand is, and probably exiting the year is getting closer to being in balance.

正如 Tim 所描述的，我們認為 NAND 的位增長無論如何都在上半年，低於長期需求的水平，並且可能在今年退出時越來越接近平衡。

But we still think it's below where demand growth is.

但我們仍然認為它低於需求增長的水平。

I'm going to leave it at that.

我將把它留在那裡。

Okay.

好的。

How about DRAM bit supply growth exiting the year, if there is, to your point, if there's DRAM CapEx being pushed?

DRAM 位供應增長如何退出今年，如果有的話，在你看來，如果有 DRAM 資本支出被推動？

DRAM bit growth also, I think, as we said, would under grow long-term demand this year.

正如我們所說，我認為 DRAM 位的增長也將低於今年的長期需求增長。

Okay.

好的。

Maybe a longer term question.

也許是一個長期的問題。

With the share gains you had in Foundry and Logic this year and I think it was as high as 48% of the total revenue last quarter.

今年你在 Foundry 和 Logic 的份額增長，我認為它高達上個季度總收入的 48%。

How should we think about your exposure between Foundry and Logic and Memory through the next cycle, I think, versus maybe last 5 years, remember it was averaging like close to 70% sales?

我認為，與過去 5 年相比，我們應該如何看待您在下一個週期中在 Foundry、Logic 和 Memory 之間的曝光率，還記得平均接近 70% 的銷售額嗎？

We've got nice trajectory relative to what's going on in Foundry and Logic, and we had a really strong December quarter, record level on Foundry.

相對於 Foundry 和 Logic 正在發生的事情，我們有很好的發展軌跡，我們在 12 月的季度表現非常強勁，創紀錄的 Foundry 水平。

I expect our share of WFE in both Foundry and Logic to continue to be very strong.

我預計我們在 Foundry 和 Logic 中的 WFE 份額將繼續保持強勁。

I'm not going to pinpoint exactly what it is versus Memory because we're very strong in Memory as well.

我不會確切地指出它與內存的對比，因為我們在內存方面也非常強大。

I feel really good about where we're positioned.

我對我們所處的位置感覺非常好。

I'll just put it that way.

我就這麼說吧。

I mean, I think the simplest way to think about it as a company, our objective is to improve our share, revenue share of WFE across all segments.

我的意思是，我認為將其視為一家公司的最簡單方法是，我們的目標是提高 WFE 在所有領域的份額和收入份額。

All right.

好的。

I'd like to turn it back over to our speakers for any closing remarks.

我想把它交還給我們的發言人，以供結束髮言。

We just want to thank everyone for joining our call today.

我們只想感謝大家今天加入我們的電話會議。

We appreciate it.

我們很感激。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen.

謝謝你們，女士們，先生們。

This concludes today's teleconference, and you may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束，您現在可以斷開連接。

Please enjoy the rest of your day.

請盡情享受您的一天。