科林研發 (LRCX) 2019 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, and welcome to the Lam Research Corporation September 2018 Quarter Earnings Call.

大家好，歡迎參加 Lam Research Corporation 2018 年 9 月季度收益電話會議。

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Ms. Tina Correia, Corporate Vice President of Investor Relations and Communications. Please go ahead.

此時，我謹將會議交給投資人關係與傳播公司副總裁蒂娜‧科雷亞女士。請繼續。

Thank you, and good afternoon, everyone. Welcome to the Lam Research quarterly earnings conference call. With me today are Martin Anstice, Chief Executive Officer; and Doug Bettinger, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝大家，大家下午好。歡迎參加Lam Research季度財報電話會議。今天陪同我的是執行長馬丁·安斯蒂斯，以及執行副總裁兼財務長道格·貝廷格。

During today's call, we will share our outlook on the business environment and review our financial results for the September 2018 quarter and our outlook for the December 2018 quarter. The press release detailing our financial results was distributed a little after 1:00 p.m. Pacific Time this afternoon. It can also be found on the Investor Relations section of the company's website along with the presentation slides that accompany today's call.

在今天的電話會議上，我們將分享我們對商業環境的展望，並回顧我們 2018 年 9 月季度的財務業績以及我們對 2018 年 12 月季度的展望。詳細介紹我們財務表現的新聞稿已於下午 1 點剛過發布。太平洋時間今天下午。也可以在公司網站的投資者關係部分找到，以及今天電話會議的簡報。

Today's presentation and Q&A includes forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties reflected in the risk factors disclosures of our SEC public filings. Please see accompanying slides in the presentation for additional information.

今天的演示和問答環節包含前瞻性陳述，這些陳述受到風險和不確定性的影響，這些風險和不確定性已反映在我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的公開文件中的風險因素披露部分。更多資訊請參閱簡報中的配套幻燈片。

Today's discussion of our financial results will be presented on a non-GAAP financial basis unless otherwise specified. A detailed reconciliation between GAAP and non-GAAP results can be found in today's earnings press release. This call is scheduled to last until 3:00 p.m. Pacific Time. As a reminder, a replay of this call will be available later this afternoon on our website.

除非另有說明，我們今天對財務表現的討論將以非GAAP財務報表為基礎。今天的盈利新聞稿中提供了 GAAP 和非 GAAP 結果之間的詳細調整表。本次通話預計持續到下午3點。太平洋時間。再次提醒，本次電話會議的錄音將於今天下午晚些時候在我們的網站上提供。

With that, let me hand the call over to Martin.

那麼，我把電話交給馬丁吧。

Thank you, Tina. Thank you all for joining us today.

謝謝你，蒂娜。感謝各位今天蒞臨。

Lam delivered results stronger than targeted for the September quarter with revenues, gross margin and EPS all exceeding the midpoints of our guidance. In addition, consistent with the commentary made during our last earnings call, we are forecasting the December quarter up sequentially, and we would still characterize based on engagements with our customers in our markets an outlook for the first half of 2019 that is somewhat stronger than the second half of 2018. In aggregate, there has been more semiconductor capital investment volatility, both upside and downside in 2017 and 2018 than in the recent prior years, and that is only accentuated by broader macro headlines, such as trade, tariffs and interest rates. Despite this context, we remain very excited by the long-term drivers for data economy enablement from the world of silicon and the complements of our product and services portfolio to the technology road map of the industry. In our opinion, next-generation device and systems architectures, the expansion of the materials in chip design and manufacturing creates compelling opportunities for our strength in etch and deposition. We remain committed to invest and innovate for the success of our customers and our company.

Lam 公佈的 9 月季度業績超出預期，收入、毛利率和每股收益都超過我們預期的中位數。此外，正如我們在上次財報電話會議上所作的評論，我們預測 12 月季度業績將環比增長，並且根據我們與市場上客戶的互動，我們仍然認為 2019 年上半年的前景比 2018 年下半年要好一些。總體而言，2017 年和 2018 年半導體資本投資的波動性（包括上漲和下跌）比近年來要大，而貿易、關稅和利率等更廣泛的宏觀新聞只會加劇這種情況。儘管如此，我們仍然對矽谷推動數據經濟發展的長期動力感到非常興奮，我們的產品和服務組合與產業技術路線圖相輔相成。我們認為，下一代裝置和系統架構，以及晶片設計和製造材料的擴展，為我們在蝕刻和沈積方面的優勢創造了令人矚目的機會。我們將繼續致力於投資和創新，以實現客戶和公司的成功。

As always, the performance of Lam is defined by customer trust and employee commitment to our vision and values. We sincerely appreciate their partnership, the opportunity created and the numerous contributions made.

與以往一樣，Lam 的表現取決於客戶的信任和員工對我們願景和價值觀的承諾。我們衷心感謝他們的合作、創造的機會、以及所做的許多貢獻。

Since our July update, current year WFE expectations continue to track up slightly year-over-year, although to a modestly reduced extent. At the segment level, 2018 WFE looks a little stronger in Logic, a little weaker in NAND and Foundry to the assumptions we made 3 months back. With customer and Lam performance consistent with our December quarter revenue guidance provided today, calendar '18 would represent a healthy revenue growth year of 14% for the company with profit performance marginally stronger versus the calendar year 2017 benchmark.

自我們 7 月的更新以來，本年度 WFE 預期繼續同比略有上升，儘管上升幅度略有減少。從細分市場來看，2018 年 WFE 在邏輯領域略有增強，在 NAND 和晶圓代工領域略有減弱，這與我們 3 個月前的假設相比有所下降。如果客戶和 Lam 的業績與我們今天提供的 12 月季度收入預期一致，那麼 2018 年日曆年將代表公司收入健康增長 14%，利潤表現將比 2017 年日曆年的基準略好。

In deposition, we continue to see evidence of Lam's growing strategic relevance to the success of our customers with key penetrations of new films for patterning, new specialty applications for 3D NAND and deeper partnership models emerging for 3D NAND applications. In etch, perhaps our most critical area of focus in 3D NAND is the continued enablement of customers' increasingly challenging technology road maps, where we continue to strengthen our leading capabilities in high aspect ratio applications. Our solutions are invested in customers' vision for continued 3D NAND scaling targeted to accelerate demand elasticity in their markets for the next several years. Combined, etch and deposition market share penetration and defense activity is a net positive so far for Lam in calendar '18.

在沉積領域，我們不斷看到 Lam 的產品對客戶的成​​功具有越來越重要的戰略意義，這體現在用於圖案化的新薄膜、用於 3D NAND 的新特殊應用以及針對 3D NAND 應用的更深入的合作模式的關鍵滲透上。在蝕刻領域，我們在 3D NAND 領域最關鍵的關注點或許是持續助力客戶實現日益複雜的技術路線圖，我們將繼續加強在高縱橫比應用方面的領先能力。我們的解決方案致力於實現客戶對 3D NAND 持續擴展的願景，旨在加速其市場在未來幾年內的需求彈性。綜合來看，蝕刻和沈積市場份額滲透率以及國防活動對 Lam 在 2018 年日曆中而言總體上是正面的。

Fundamental to the quality and sustainability of Lam earnings is the performance delivered by our customer support business group. Our installed base business has grown year-to-date at a pace more than 2x faster than our installed base unit growth during the same period. Our worldwide process chamber counts now exceeds 55,000 units compared to 36,000 units at the end of 2014, and this is the foundation for ongoing spare service and upgrade revenues. We are increasingly focused on value creation for our customers through investments made in equipment intelligence products. We are providing performance enhancements in areas such as tool analytics, preventive maintenance and chamber matching to enhance productivity for our customers and create opportunities for Lam. In addition, driven by our customers' aspirations of better asset utilization in addressing the non-leading edge and also the emergence of new IoT and MEMS silicon opportunities, our reliance business recorded calendar year-to-date growth of more than 35% versus the same period in 2017. A good illustration, we believe, of Lam's ability to be flexible in addressing the full scope of our market opportunities.

Lam 獲利的品質和永續性，根本在於我們的客戶支援業務團隊的表現。今年迄今為止，我們的裝機量業務成長速度比同期裝機量成長速度快兩倍以上。我們全球工藝腔室的數量現已超過 55,000 台，而 2014 年底為 36,000 台，這是持續備件服務和升級收入的基礎。我們越來越注重透過投資設備智慧產品來為客戶創造價值。我們正在工具分析、預防性維護和腔室匹配等領域提供效能提升，以提高客戶的生產力，並為 Lam 創造機會。此外，在客戶希望更好地利用資產以應對非領先邊緣問題以及新的物聯網和 MEMS 矽機會的推動下，我們的可靠性業務今年迄今為止的增長比 2017 年同期增長了 35% 以上。我們認為，這很好地體現了林氏能夠靈活應對我們市場機會的全部範圍。

In closing, the September quarter and our outlook on December are largely as we shared with you last earnings call and should deliver more than $3 billion in cash from operations this year. We remain focused on investing in our profitable growth objectives, at the same time, delivering value through a balanced cash redistribution to shareholders. In this regard, incorporating December 2018 quarter guidance provided today, year-over-year operating expenses increased by 9% with 75% of that growth focused on R&D. And our fully diluted quarterly share count reduces by approximately 10% end of year '18 versus end of year '17. We anticipate a healthy long-term opportunity for our customers and our company both with continued attention placed on strategies intended to deliver targeted returns on the investments that each market participant makes.

最後，9 月季度業績和 12 月的展望與我們上次財報電話會議中分享的內容基本一致，預計今年營運現金流將超過 30 億美元。我們將繼續專注於投資實現獲利成長目標，同時透過向股東進行均衡的現金再分配來創造價值。在這方面，根據今天提供的 2018 年 12 月季度指引，年比營運支出成長了 9%，其中 75% 的成長集中在研發方面。2018 年末，我們完全稀釋後的季度股份數量比 2017 年末減少了約 10%。我們預計，隨著我們持續專注於旨在為每個市場參與者的投資帶來預期回報的策略，我們的客戶和公司都將迎來健康的長期發展機會。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Doug.

接下來，我會把電話交給道格。

Great. Thank you, Martin. Good afternoon, everyone, and thank you for joining us today. Lam executed well in the September quarter with our -- excuse me, our results exceeding the midpoint of guidance for all of our financial metrics. Operating margin and earnings per share were at the high end of the guidance range provided, demonstrating what I think is discipline in our spending during a decline in industry capital equipment investments. We're pleased with our execution and ability to respond to the challenging business environment.

偉大的。謝謝你，馬丁。各位下午好，感謝各位今天參加我們的節目。Lam 在 9 月的季度表現出色，我們的——抱歉，是我們的業績在所有財務指標上都超過了預期中位數。營業利潤率和每股盈餘均處於預期範圍的高端，這表明，在產業資本設備投資下降的情況下，我們在支出方面保持了自律。我們對自己在應對充滿挑戰的商業環境中的執行力和能力感到滿意。

As a reminder to everybody, we adopted ASC 606 in the September quarter, which is the first quarter of our 2019 fiscal year. Under 606, we generally record revenue at the time of shipment rather than at the time of customer acceptance. With this new standard, we are no longer providing shipment numbers. Our market segment disclosures will be based on the composition of our revenue numbers for the quarter, and we'll do that now as well as into the future. So let me get into that.

提醒大家，我們在 2019 財年第一季（即 9 月季）採用了 ASC 606。根據 606 條款，我們通常在出貨時而不是客戶驗收時確認收入。根據這項新標準，我們將不再提供出貨單號。我們將根據本季度的收入構成披露市場細分信息，現在如此，將來亦如此。那麼，讓我來詳細說說。

Memory revenue continued to be strong with the combined Memory segment making up 77% of total system revenue. Our overall nonvolatile memory revenue remains strong, representing approximately 51% of the system revenue, and that despite the anticipated reduction of spending in nearly every one of our NAND customers. DRAM represented 26% of system revenue. DRAM spending in the quarter continue to be focused on conversions to both the 1x and the 1y nanometer node. The Foundry segment was stronger in the quarter, accounting for 17% of system revenue. And finally, the Logic and Other segment contributed 6% of system revenue, pretty much consistent throughout calendar year 2018.

記憶體業務收入持續保持強勁勢頭，記憶體業務板塊合計佔系統總收入的 77%。儘管我們幾乎所有 NAND 客戶都預期會減少支出，但我們整體的非揮發性記憶體收入依然強勁，約佔系統收入的 51%。DRAM佔系統收入的26%。本季 DRAM 支出繼續集中在向 1x 和 1y 奈米節點的轉換。本季度，晶圓代工業務表現強勁，佔系統收入的 17%。最後，邏輯和其他業務板塊貢獻了系統收入的 6%，與 2018 年全年基本保持一致。

We continue to see strength in the China region with 25% of our revenue being generated there. The strength in China came from both foundry as well as memory. Nearly 2/3 of the revenue in September came from domestic Chinese customers.

中國市場依然強勁，我們25%的營收都來自中國。中國的實力既源自於鑄造工藝，也源自於記憶。9月近三分之二的收入來自中國國內客戶。

We delivered revenues of $2,331,000,000 in the September quarter, a decrease of 25% from June and slightly above the midpoint of our guidance. Gross margin for the quarter came in at 46.4%. And as we've shared before, our actual gross margins are a function of several factors, such as business volumes, product mix and customer concentration, and you should expect to see some volatility quarter-to-quarter.

我們在9月季度實現了23.31億美元的收入，比6月下降了25%，略高於我們預期的中點。本季毛利率為 46.4%。正如我們之前分享過的，我們的實際毛利率取決於多種因素，例如業務量、產品組合和客戶集中度，因此您應該預料到季度之間會出現一些波動。

Operating expenses in the quarter were down to $451 million, which was a decrease of $57 million from the June quarter. R&D comprised nearly 2/3 of our total spending, consistent with the composition of the June quarter operating expenses. We continue to maintain a higher concentration of spending in R&D as we believe that disciplined R&D investments are critical to achieving our future revenue growth.

本季營運支出降至 4.51 億美元，比 6 月季度減少了 5,700 萬美元。研發支出占我們總支出的近 2/3，與 6 月季度營運支出的組成一致。我們將繼續保持較高的研發投入比例，因為我們相信，有紀律的研發投資對於實現未來的收入成長至關重要。

One thing I'd like to mention to help you with your future P&L modeling. When we get to the March quarter of next year, we will have an extra work week in our fiscal quarter. This occurs approximately every 6 years due to our fiscal calendar cutoff. March spending will be higher as a result of the extra work week, so keep that in mind as you put your March models together please.

我想提一點，希望能對你未來的損益建模有所幫助。到明年三月季度時，我們的財政季度將多出一週的工作時間。由於我們的財政年度截止日期，這種情況大約每 6 年發生一次。由於多出一周的工作時間，三月份的支出將會增加，所以請在製定三月的預算模型時考慮這一點。

Operating income in the September quarter came in at $630 million. Operating margin came in at the top of the guidance range at 27%, primarily due to stronger gross margin performance as well as flexibility in our spending in a quarter of lower business volumes.

9 月季度的營業收入為 6.3 億美元。營業利潤率達到預期範圍的上限 27%，主要原因是毛利率表現強勁，以及在業務量較低的季度中，我們在支出方面具有靈活性。

The non-GAAP tax rate for the September quarter was 11.9%, in line with the guidance provided last quarter. In the longer run, the tax rate in the low to middle teens is the right level to include in your models, and I will point out that you will see fluctuations around this quarter-to-quarter.

9 月季度的非 GAAP 稅率為 11.9%，與上季提供的指導意見一致。從長遠來看，十幾到二十幾的稅率是適合納入模型的水平，但我要指出的是，你會看到這個稅率在每個季度之間出現波動。

Based on the share count of approximately 165 million shares, earnings per share for the September quarter were $3.36, again at the high end of our guided range. The primary driver of the upside versus our guidance was stronger profitability. The share count includes dilution from the 2041 convertible notes and the 2018 warrants that are still outstanding. The total dilutive impact for each of -- for both of these, excuse me, was approximately 8 million shares. And I'll remind you, the dilution schedules for the remaining 2041 convertible notes is available on our Investor Relations website for your reference.

根據約 1.65 億股的股數計算，9 月季度的每股收益為 3.36 美元，再次處於我們預期範圍的高端。業績超出預期的主要原因是獲利能力增強。股份數量包括 2041 年可轉換票據和 2018 年認股權證（目前仍未發行）造成的稀釋。這兩筆交易的總稀釋影響約為 800 萬股。我還要提醒各位，剩餘 2041 年可轉換債券的稀釋計畫表已發佈在我們的投資者關係網站上，供您參考。

In the September quarter, we had about $80 million in early conversions of the 2041 notes. The remaining balance of the 2041 notes is $248 million.

在九月的季度中，我們有大約 8000 萬美元的 2041 年到期票據提前轉換。2041 年到期票據的剩餘餘額為 2.48 億美元。

We continue to execute on our capital return program. In the September quarter, we committed approximately $1.7 billion towards share repurchases, deploying all of our current board authorization from a dollar perspective. Our repurchases were executed largely through accelerated share repurchase programs that will cover repurchases until the March quarter of 2019. For dividends, following the declaration of $1.10 per share last quarter, we paid out $174 million in dividends to our shareholders.

我們將繼續執行資本回報計劃。在九月的季度中，我們投入了約 17 億美元用於股票回購，從美元角度來看，這已經用盡了我們目前董事會授權的所有資金。我們的回購主要透過加速股票回購計畫進行，該計畫將涵蓋到 2019 年 3 月季度的回購。在上個季度宣布每股派息 1.10 美元後，我們向股東派發了 1.74 億美元的股息。

Let me now shift to the balance sheet. Cash and short-term investments, including restricted cash, decreased in the quarter to $3.9 billion, and that compares with $5.2 billion at the end of the June quarter, the change largely due to our capital return activities. We continue to make progress bringing our cash onshore.

現在讓我來看看資產負債表。本季現金及短期投資（包括受限現金）減少至 39 億美元，而 6 月底的季末為 52 億美元，這項變動主要是由於我們的資本回報活動。我們持續推進將資金轉移回國內的工作。

Cash from operations for the September quarter remained strong at $720 million, which was roughly flat with the $718 million we generated in the June quarter. DSO increased by 9 days to 72 days, which is related to the linearity of revenue during the quarter. Inventory was roughly flat in dollar terms while inventory turns declined to 2.7x. This compares to 3.5x in the prior quarter. We do expect to see turns improve in the December quarter.

9 月季度的經營活動現金流保持強勁，達到 7.2 億美元，與 6 月季度產生的 7.18 億美元基本持平。DSO 增加了 9 天，達到 72 天，這與本季營收的線性成長有關。以美元計算，庫存大致持平，而庫存週轉率下降至 2.7 倍。這與上一季的 3.5 倍相比有所下降。我們預計12月份的季度轉率會有所改善。

Company noncash expenses included approximately $50 million for equity comp, $36 million for amortization and $44 million for depreciation. Capital expenditures were $56 million, which was down from $80 million in the June quarter. For the calendar year, we expect CapEx in 2018 will be flat to slightly higher compared to 2017 levels. CapEx this year is going towards investment in manufacturing expansion for our installed base business as well as strategic R&D investments. We exited the quarter with approximately 11,000 regular full-time employees, which was relatively consistent with the June quarter.

公司非現金支出包括約 5,000 萬美元的股權補償、3,600 萬美元的攤銷和 4,400 萬美元的折舊。資本支出為 5,600 萬美元，低於 6 月季度的 8,000 萬美元。我們預計 2018 年的資本支出將與 2017 年的水準持平或略有上升。今年的資本支出將用於擴大現有業務的生產規模以及進行策略性研發投資。本季末，我們擁有約 11,000 名正式全職員工，與 6 月的季度基本持平。

So now looking ahead, I'd like to provide our non-GAAP guidance for the December quarter. We are expecting revenue of $2,500,000,000 plus or minus $150 million. We're expecting a modest uptick in customer spending across multiple segments; gross margin of 46%, plus or minus 1 percentage point; operating margins of 27.5%, plus or minus 1 percentage point; and finally, earnings per share of $3.65, plus or minus $0.20 based on a share count of approximately 163 million shares.

展望未來，我想提供我們對 12 月季度的非 GAAP 業績指引。我們預計營收為 25 億美元，上下浮動 1.5 億美元。我們預計多個細分市場的客戶支出將略有增長；毛利率為 46%，上下浮動 1 個百分點；營業利潤率為 27.5%，上下浮動 1 個百分點；最後，每股收益為 3.65 美元，上下浮動 0.20 美元，基於約 1.63 億股的股份數量。

Consistent with our prior comments, we forecast that September quarter marks a near-term trough for our business. While near-term forecasts are subject to change, we remain optimistic on our longer-term growth prospects that we've highlighted during our investor event back in March. We continue to prioritize disciplined investments that drive competitively differentiated products as well as Lam's outperformance opportunity into the future.

與我們先前的評論一致，我們預測9月份的季度將是我們業務近期的低谷。儘管短期預測可能會有所變化，但我們對長期成長前景依然保持樂觀，這已在我們三月的投資人活動中重點提及。我們將繼續優先進行穩健的投資，以推動具有競爭優勢的產品發展，並抓住 Lam 未來超越市場的機會。

That concludes my prepared remarks. Operator, please open up the call for questions.

我的發言稿到此結束。接線員，請開啟提問環節。

(Operator Instructions) We'll take our first question from C.J. Muse with Evercore.

（操作員說明）我們先來回答來自 Evercore 的 C.J. Muse 提出的問題。

I guess first question, as you think about your first half outlook for calendar '19, definitely coming in stronger, I think, than many of us thought. Can you walk through, I guess, what you're seeing in terms of tools versus service? And then if there's anything that we should be thinking about that is perhaps maybe Lam specific or timing of, say, image sensors coming in. Would love to kind of hear your thoughts on that front.

我想問的第一個問題是，當您展望 2019 年上半年時，我認為情況肯定會比我們許多人預想的要好。能詳細說說你​​認為工具和服務方面有什麼不同嗎？然後，如果有什麼我們應該考慮的，可能是 Lam 特有的，或者比如說影像感測器的引入時間之類的。很想聽聽你對此有何看法。

Yes. Needless to say, we're much more qualified to speak to our business than we are kind of like the overall kind of WFE headline. So when we think about kind of calendar '19, obviously, there's been some continued, I would say, muting of investment expectations primarily in NAND flash since our last earnings call. We're looking at 14 new projects next year, fab projects next year. And I would expect honestly in the second half '18 to first half '19 comparison that our kind of revenue levels will be incrementally higher in DRAM, Logic/Other including image sensors, to your point, and also Foundry. I would expect NAND to be down half over half, second half '18 compared to first half '19. Relative to the proportion of our kind of revenue headlines that is the spares and service, the installed base business, obviously, it's a very important part of the economics of the company. And we've given some color today on the pace of growth of that business by referencing the installed base and the annuity that comes with it, and it's an important part of the value proposition here. But I would say, our headlines for first half WFE are 3D systems headlines for the markets and the customers that we have. So hopefully, that helps, C.J.

是的。毋庸置疑，我們更有資格談論自己的業務，而不是像WFE那樣的大頭條。所以當我們展望 2019 年的日曆時，顯然，自從我們上次財報電話會議以來，投資預期（主要是 NAND 快閃記憶體）持續下調。明年我們將啟動 14 個新項目，都是非常棒的項目。老實說，我預計在 2018 年下半年與 2019 年上半年的比較中，我們的 DRAM、邏輯/其他（包括圖像感測器，正如您所說）以及晶圓代工的收入水平將逐步提高。我預計 NAND 閃存在 2018 年下半年的銷售量將比 2019 年上半年下降一半。相對於我們這類收入來源（即備件和服務、已安裝基礎業務）所佔的比例而言，顯然，它是公司經濟中非常重要的一部分。今天，我們透過提及已安裝的用戶基礎及其帶來的收益，對該業務的成長速度進行了一些描述，這也是我們價值主張的重要組成部分。但我想說，我們上半年 WFE 的重點是針對我們現有市場和客戶的 3D 系統。希望這對你有幫助，C.J.

Very helpful. And if I could ask a follow up. You've always done a great job of managing OpEx. And given, I guess, the increased volatility, Doug, how are you thinking about incremental op margins from here? I think your target model is roughly 40%. Is that still the right kind of model up or down depending on the revenue run rate?

很有幫助。我可以問一個後續問題嗎？你一直都做得很好，尤其是在營運支出管理方面。鑑於市場波動性加劇，道格，你如何看待接下來的增量營業利益率？我認為你的目標模型大約是 40%。這種根據營收成長率上下浮動的模式仍然合適嗎？

Well, C.J., I think you rewrote our model. Our model is 32% to 33% in the longer term.

C.J.，我覺得你重寫了我們的模型。我們的模型長期目標是32%到33%。

Yes. You see, you're too used to, C.J., these memory companies with 40% to 50% operating income, that it tainted you.

是的。你看，C.J.，你太習慣那些營業利潤率高達 40% 到 50% 的內存公司了，這已經影響了你。

Yes. But C.J., to more directly answer your question, at these revenue levels, kind of high 20s, you just saw us print 27% and guide 27.5%. And as things recover and get stronger, you'll see us kind of inch our way towards that low 30s level. That's the right way to be thinking about things. There will be variability in spending, and one of the things I purposefully pointed out is the March quarter is a 14-week quarter so there's an extra work week in there. And I'll remind you that in the first half of the year, you get certain spending coming back in like payroll taxes and things like that. So don't forget those things as you're modeling the next couple of quarters. But hopefully, that answers your question.

是的。但 C.J.，為了更直接地回答你的問題，在這樣的營收水準下（大約 20% 以上），你剛才看到我們公佈的業績成長了 27%，預期成長了 27.5%。隨著情況好轉並逐漸好轉，你會看到我們慢慢地朝著 30 度左右的水平邁進。這才是正確的思考方式。支出會有波動，我特意指出的一點是，3 月份的季度是 14 週，所以多了一個工作週。我還要提醒各位，今年上半年，會有一些支出收入回流，像是薪資稅等等。所以在模擬接下來幾季的業績時，不要忘記這些因素。希望這能解答你的疑問。

We'll take our next question from John Pitzer with Credit Suisse.

接下來，我們將回答來自瑞士信貸的約翰·皮策提出的問題。

I guess, Doug, my first question, kind of an accounting question around 606 and deferred revenue. There was a bit drawdown in the September quarter sequentially in deferred revenue. How does that line sort of transition over time? Under 606, will that eventually get to 0? How quickly will you get there? And is the uptick in the December sort of revenue guidance a function of just deferred revenue coming down off the balance sheet?

我想，Doug，我的第一個問題，是一個關於 606 和遞延收入的會計問題。9 月季度遞延營收季減。隨著時間的推移，這條線會發生怎樣的變化？低於 606，最終會變成 0 嗎？你多久能到？12 月營收預期上調是否僅是因為遞延收入從資產負債表減少所致？

Yes. So briefly, I'll go through it, John, and you can ask me more if you want to understand a little more. I mean, basically, what happened as we crossed into the new fiscal year is there was a bucket of deferred revenue that just fell straight to retained earnings. So that just fell off, and it's largely why deferred revenue went down so much quarter-on-quarter. You'll continue to see deferred revenue though, John, for first-of-a-kind tools and certain BPA accrual type things that isn't completely delivered yet. It will bounce around a little bit. And generally, the way I think about the difference between 605 and 606 is it's all just timing. We're still shipping tools. We're still collecting cash. All of that is happening in the same time frame that it otherwise would have. In some quarters, 606 revenue recognition will be higher than 605. In some quarters, I would expect it will flip and go the other way. But at the end of the day, this is all just timing, and what really matters in my mind is when cash is coming into the company. And as I think you saw, we had a really strong cash collection quarter at $720 million. Does that help, John?

是的。約翰，我簡單解說一下，如果你想了解更多，可以隨時問我。我的意思是，基本上，當我們進入新的財政年度時，有一大筆遞延收入直接計入了留存收益。所以這部分收入就下降了，這也是遞延收入較上季大幅下降的主要原因。不過，約翰，你仍然會看到遞延收入，因為這是首創工具和某些尚未完全交付的 BPA 應計專案。它會稍微彈跳一下。一般來說，我認為 605 和 606 之間的差異僅僅在於時機。我們仍在發貨。我們仍在收取現金。所有這些都在原本應該發生的同一時間段內發生。在某些季度，606 的收入確認額將高於 605。在某些方面，我預期情況會反轉，朝著相反的方向發展。但歸根究底，這一切都只是時機問題，在我看來真正重要的是公司何時獲得資金。正如你所看到的，我們本季的現金回收額非常強勁，達到了 7.2 億美元。這樣有幫助嗎，約翰？

That's helpful. And then maybe for my follow-up to Martin. Martin, I think one of the investor concerns out there is as the industry transition from planar to 3D NAND and the rush to get there by your customers just created kind of a once-in-a-lifetime tight kind of bulge in NAND CapEx that's not repeatable. I'm kind of curious as we go through this soft period of NAND, has your view of capital intensity, your SAM or the rate at which your customers are making these transitions changed? And are you still of the mindset that 32 to 64 was probably the most efficient transition for the industry, and as we go from here, things get more difficult? Any color there would be helpful.

那很有幫助。然後，也許我會對馬丁的後續報導發表看法。馬丁，我認為投資者們擔心的一點是，隨著行業從平面 NAND 向 3D NAND 過渡，以及客戶們爭相採用這種技術，導致 NAND 資本支出出現了一種百年一遇的、不可複制的激增。我很好奇，在我們經歷 NAND 的這段疲軟期之際，您對資本密集度、SAM 或客戶進行這些轉換的速度的看法是否有所改變？你是否仍然認為從 32 位到 64 位可能是業界最有效的過渡，而從現在開始，事情會變得越來越困難？任何顏色都會有所幫助。

Yes. I mean, a lot of questions there. So at a fundamental level, no real change in our long-term outlook, and that's a commentary on capital intensity needed for the industry. And we floated a $70 billion reference at the Flash Summit conference a year back, I think, or -- and maybe repeat it again this year actually. So 2 years in a row, the same message. I'm not sure we've ever really offered an opinion about efficiency of one node or another. But I would certainly align to the fact that the challenges get more complex over time as aspect ratios increase, which is a big part of the opportunity for us. That's why we're strong and differentiated, so I think that trends well. And we don't see the opportunity for 3D NAND as a once-in-a-lifetime gig or a onetime event, right? Clearly, there were some transitional investments associated with planar capacity to 3D. There are also investments associated with one generation 3D to the next. And we did opine in earlier disclosure that over the next 5 years, I think, we expect about 1 million wafer starts per month of incremental capacity to get brought to the system associated with the long-term outlook for nonvolatile memory in this world of data. So from an industry point of view, more or less the same. And I guess the one thing I didn't say is independent of what your view is, good or bad, you should recognize that the segments of etch and deposition are entirely central and fundamental to that transition. And so if everybody does well or everybody has opportunity, we should have more. And if nobody does so well, we should outperform. So that's an important headline as well.

是的。我的意思是，這裡面有很多問題。因此，從根本上講，我們的長期前景沒有真正的變化，這反映了該行業所需的資本密集度。我想，我們在一年前的 Flash Summit 大會上提出了 700 億美元的估值，或者——今年可能會再次提及。所以連續兩年，都是同樣的訊息。我不確定我們是否曾經真正對某個節點的效率發表過意見。但我完全同意，隨著寬高比的增加，挑戰也會變得越來越複雜，這對我們來說是一個很大的機會。這就是我們實力雄厚且與眾不同的原因，所以我認為這種趨勢會很好。我們不認為 3D NAND 的機會​​是千載難逢的機會或一次性事件，對吧？顯然，從平面列印能力過渡到三維列印能力的過程中，存在一些過渡性投資。此外，還有與從一代 3D 技術到下一代 3D 技術相關的投資。我們在先前的揭露中也曾表示，在未來 5 年內，我們預計每月將有約 100 萬片晶圓新增產能投入使用，這與資料世界中非揮發性記憶體的長期前景相關。所以從產業角度來看，大體上是相同的。我想我沒有提到的一點是，無論你的觀點是好是壞，你都應該認識到蝕刻和沈積這兩個環節對於這種轉變至關重要。所以，如果每個人都發展得好或每個人都有機會，我們應該擁有更多。如果沒人能做到那麼好，我們就應該做得更好。所以這也是一個重要的新聞標題。

We'll take our next question from Krish Sankar with Cowen and Company.

接下來，我們將回答來自 Cowen and Company 的 Krish Sankar 提出的問題。

Two of them. First, on margin. If you look at this downturn, clearly, there's downdraft clearly led by memory. It looks like the CapEx of the WFE cuts are being in retaliation to pricing declines. So from your vantage point, do you think pricing is a key metric to look forward to see when it troughs? And if so, do you think WFE troughs for memory along with pricing? And do you have any view on when it will happen? And I have a follow-up.

其中兩個。首先，關於邊際效益。如果你觀察這次經濟衰退，很明顯，這是一股由記憶驅動的下行氣流。看來WFE削減資本支出是為了報復價格下跌。那麼從你的角度來看，你認為價格是值得關注的關鍵指標嗎？你認為價格何時會觸底嗎？如果是這樣，您認為WFE的記憶體價格會受到影響嗎？你覺得這件事什麼時候會發生？我還有一個後續問題。

Well, I mean, I think -- that's a very important question and quite a complicated one. Clearly, there's a relationship of pricing to investment levels, and I would say that's in 2 ways. The first one is ASPs should reflect supply and demand balance of capacity. So to the extent that price is going up or going down, there is an implied message around the need to add capacity or the need to kind of rein in capacity. So that's been the world we've lived in for many, many, many years. What's a little different today is that pricing is not actually a great leading indicator right now of the customer's ability to afford to make investments. So back to my rather amusing response to Tim'sJim's earlier question, when the memory companies are making 40% to 50% profits when DRAM is $100 billion business, when flash has grown in the way that it has, the sustainability of investment is clearly enabled in ways that wasn't true 3 or 5 years ago. Now having said all of that, I think our customers spend money adding capacity when they have demand from their customers to ship devices. So I don't think people get carried away at any level these days. So it's a bit more complicated than it used to be. Pricing is relevant to help you understand supply and demand, but it's not so relevant in assessing sustainability on the customer's ability to make capacity or technology-related investments. So good luck with your modeling, I guess.

嗯，我的意思是，我認為——這是一個非常重要且相當複雜的問題。顯然，價格與投資水準之間存在著某種關係，我認為這體現在兩個方面。第一點是平均售價應該反映產能的供需平衡。因此，價格上漲或下跌都隱含著需要增加產能或需要控制產能的資訊。這就是我們多年來一直生活的世界。如今略有不同的是，價格實際上並不是衡量客戶投資能力的一個很好的領先指標。回到我之前對 Tim'sJim 的問題的有趣回答，當記憶體公司獲得 40% 到 50% 的利潤，DRAM 業務規模達到 1000 億美元，閃存也以這樣的方式發展壯大時，投資的可持續性顯然得到了保障，而這在 3 年前或 5 年前是不可能發生的。綜上所述，我認為當我們的客戶有客戶需要出貨時，他們才會花錢增加產能。所以我覺得現在人們在任何層面上都不會太得意忘形了。所以現在的情況比以前複雜一些。定價有助於了解供需關係，但對於評估客戶在產能或技術相關投資方面的可持續性而言，定價關係不大。祝你模特兒事業一切順利。

Got it. Got it. That's very helpful, Martin. Then just a follow-up. Clearly, we all understand the long-term upside potential for Lam and the industry and WFE bonds. I'm just trying to think the downside. If you look at the first here to drop was NAND followed by DRAM. Do you worry that things will get worse before they get better? Or do you think they're kind of troughing at these levels?

知道了。知道了。這很有幫助，馬丁。然後還有一個後續問題。顯然，我們都了解林氏家族、產業以及WFE債券的長期上漲潛力。我只是想想想不利的一面。如果你看一下，最先跌破記憶體的是 NAND，其次是 DRAM。你是否擔心情況會先惡化後好轉？還是你認為他們的股價已經觸底了？

Well, we are -- if anything, we're super consistent, right? So my approach has always been to describe what I see, and we've done that. And we'll always do that, good or bad, we'll tell it how we see it. And so we've offered perspective that says December is stronger than September, and we expect the first half of next year to be stronger than the second half of this year. And of course, we might be wrong, and you have to kind of judge the confidence level of our disclosure and kind of move forward, I guess. So best I can offer you.

嗯，我們確實——如果非要說有什麼特點的話，那就是我們非常始終如一，對吧？所以我的方法一直是描述我所看到的，我們也一直這樣做。無論好壞，我們都會如實報道。因此，我們提出的觀點是，12 月份的業績將強於 9 月份，我們預計明年上半年的業績將強於今年下半年。當然，我們也可能出錯，我想你必須判斷我們揭露資訊的信心程度，然後才能繼續前進。這就是我能為你提供的最好建議。

We'll take our next question from Timothy Arcuri with UBS.

接下來，我們將回答瑞銀集團的提摩西‧阿庫裡提出的問題。

I had 2. I guess, the first question, Martin, is if I just hold your wafer fab equipment share -- and now I'm putting everything in there, but if I just calculate your WFE share for this year and for last year, it's up a little bit this year. So if I just hold that into the first half of next year, you're still annualizing if I give you, say, $5 billion worth of revenue in the calendar first half, which is just up a little bit half on half. That would imply that we're still annualizing to like high 40s or close to $50 billion WFE. So I guess the question is who really knows about the calendar second half, but would you sort of endorse a number close to $50 billion for 2019 WFE?

我有 2 個問題。我想，馬丁，第一個問題是，如果我只計算你的晶圓製造設備份額——現在我把所有數據都放進去了，但如果我只計算你今年和去年的晶圓製造設備份額，今年的份額略有上升。所以，如果我把這個數字延續到明年上半年，假設我告訴你，比如說，上半年的收入為 50 億美元，那麼按年計算，這只是比上半年略有增長而已。這意味著我們仍然需要將年化規模控制在 400 億美元以上，或接近 500 億美元。所以我想問題在於，誰真正了解下半年的情況，但您是否認可 2019 年世界電影節 (WFE) 接近 500 億美元的數字？

Technically, it's too early for us to answer that question. It's pretty customary that we have a response to that in the January earnings call, but fair question. I don't have a crystal ball, so I can't answer it with the same level of confidence that I can answer the near-term questions. But a variant of your question might be how do I feel today about the $100 billion 2-year reference that's being floated around for the last kind of few months. It's not a bad reference. We're trending a tweak below that right now to our analytics, but we've trended a little above it at times and a little below. And I can't really tell you what the variability is around it, but that would probably be the best I can give you at this point in time.

嚴格來說，現在回答這個問題還為時過早。通常情況下，我們會在一月份的財報電話會議上對此作出回應，但這的確是個合理的問題。我沒有水晶球，所以無法像回答近期問題那樣自信地回答這個問題。但你的問題也可以這樣問：對於最近幾個月來一直流傳的 1000 億美元兩年期目標，我今天有何感想？這是一個不錯的參考資料。我們目前的分析趨勢是略低於這個值，但有時略高於這個值，有時略低於這個值。我無法確切地告訴你它的波動範圍是多少，但這可能是我現在能給你的最佳資訊了。

Awesome. And then Doug, it was a pretty big repo this quarter, and I understand that it's going to sort of play out through the end of March. But I'm curious if you can help us on share count for December and March as this kind of flows through. And then also how you think about when you're going to kind of reup for the repo, how do you kind of think about that?

驚人的。還有，Doug，這季度的回購規模相當大，據我了解，這種情況可能會持續到三月底。但我很想知道您能否幫我們統計一下 12 月和 3 月的股份數量，因為這種情況會逐漸改變。還有，當你準備為程式碼庫重新上傳程式碼時，你會怎麼考慮這個問題？

Yes. I mean, Tim, it's always an ongoing conversation at a board level. And we described when we first launched this current authorization at 12- to 18-month time frame, maybe we've gotten through it a little sooner. I did purposefully point out that those ASRs are going to execute kind of over a 6-month time frame, so we're not out of the market even though all the cash got deployed. And when I have something to update you on, I'll update you relative to what we're going to do in the future. Obviously, it's something we're going to be talking about, but I don't have anything to tell you today.

是的。我的意思是，提姆，這始終是董事會層面的一個持續討論的話題。當我們最初推出這項授權時，預計需要 12 到 18 個月的時間，也許我們已經提前完成了。我特意指出，這些 ASR 將在大約 6 個月的時間範圍內執行，因此即使所有資金都已投入市場，我們也不會退出市場。如果有什麼新消息要告訴你們，我會根據我們未來的計畫來告知你們。顯然，這是我們之後要討論的話題，但我今天沒什麼要告訴你們的。

But just on the share count though, how would it actually play out? How would it actually play through for December and March?

但單從股份數量來看，實際情況會如何呢？12月和3月的實際進程會是怎麼樣的呢？

I just guided you a December number of 163 million. I didn't give you anything for March. And we only guide 1 quarter at a time, Tim.

我剛才告訴你的是12月的數字1.63億。三月我什麼都沒給你。提姆，我們一次只指導一個季度。

We'll take our next question from Harlan Sur with JPMorgan.

接下來，我們將回答來自摩根大通的哈蘭·蘇爾提出的問題。

We were at the Flash Memory Summit when the Lam team had its investor event, and we also had the opportunities to hear from some of the existing NAND leaders in the market as well as some potential entrants from China, who seem to be making some progress and talked about increasing their manufacturing footprint next year. We've also heard the same thing from some of the China domestic DRAM suppliers, albeit at lower levels of production activity. Do you think that China domestic memory starts to become a bigger part of your memory WFE mix looking into next year?

我們當時正在閃存峰會上，Lam 團隊舉辦了投資者活動，我們也有機會聽取了一些市場上現有的 NAND 領導者以及一些來自中國的潛在進入者的發言，他們似乎正在取得一些進展，並談到了明年擴大其生產規模的計劃。我們也從一些中國國內DRAM供應商那裡聽到了同樣的說法，儘管他們的生產活動水準較低。您認為明年中國國產記憶體是否會在您的記憶體WFE組合中佔據更大的份額？

Yes.

是的。

Yes, probably it does, Harlan. Yes.

是的，很可能確實如此，哈蘭。是的。

Both NAND and DRAM, you think?

你覺得NAND和DRAM都有嗎？

Yes, probably. I mean, I think as you observe from flash memory, the NAND guys in China were a little more visible, maybe a little more confident there. But I think they're both going to increment.

是的，很有可能。我的意思是，正如你從快閃記憶體領域觀察到的那樣，中國的 NAND 廠商似乎更引人注目，也可能更有自信。但我認為它們都會成長。

But I don't think our fundamental view on China is any different today than it was for the last kind of couple of years. I mean, it's clearly ambitious, but in our opinion, quite rational strategic agenda. And as each quarter passes, there's more substance to what they're doing, and we don't have anything more to add than what I think they're speaking to in the public markets on their own. And obviously, independent of all of that, the long-term market participants are also investing for next-generation device architectures and market share growth and so on and so forth. So I mean, it's a global system, and that's what we respond to. But I think it's likely that the investment level in China increases in absolutes and proportional terms next year for Doug's response.

但我認為，我們今天對中國的基本看法與過去幾年並沒有什麼不同。我的意思是，這顯然是一個雄心勃勃的目標，但在我們看來，這是一個相當合理的策略議程。隨著每季的過去，他們所做的事情也越來越有實質內容，除了他們在公開市場上自己表達的內容之外，我們沒有什麼可以補充的了。顯然，撇開所有這些不談，長期市場參與者也在投資下一代設備架構和市場份額成長等等。我的意思是，這是一個全球性系統，而我們正是對這個系統做出反應。但我認為，根據道格的回答，明年中國的投資水準無論從絕對值或比例上都可能增加。

I just had a quick follow-up. It's pretty amazing, right, the amount of supply side discipline and focus on profitability and free cash flow by your memory customers. And clearly, they want to maintain strong profitability levels in margining in supply. If I look at the last time there was a strong focus on sort of reining in supply, that was kind of 2016. Took about 2 quarters of strong equipment spending declines before we did see a positive response in memory pricing fundamentals and economics for your customers. Is that how the Lam team still thinks about it as well, i.e., that supply discipline in the second half of this year potentially positively impacts supply dynamics and maybe stronger profitability in the first half of next year for your customers?

我剛才有個簡短的後續問題。你們的記憶體客戶在供應方面的自律性以及對獲利能力和自由現金流的關注程度，確實令人驚嘆，對吧？顯然，他們希望在供應環節保持較高的利潤率。如果我回顧一下上一次政府大力控制供應的情況，那大概是 2016 年。在經歷了大約兩個季度的強勁設備支出下降之後，我們才看到記憶體價格基本面和經濟效益對您的客戶產生了積極影響。Lam 團隊是否也仍然這樣認為，即今年下半年的供應紀律可能會對供應動態產生正面影響，並可能在明年上半年為客戶帶來更高的獲利能力？

Wow. I'm not sure I know how to answer that. I mean, I would say everything moves faster, so I think our customers adjust faster, and therefore, that's probably true on the upside as much as it is on the downside. We're a big part of feeding variability along with other market participants to the economics of their business. And I think they take actions, anticipating risks as much as ever. And that's a lot more than would be true 5 or 10 years ago when action would get taken when there was a clear problem statement. So yes, there are supply and demand imbalances that are getting adjusted to, but there's also proactive actions to manage the risk of that. So it's a good thing, I think, in the long term. I mean, it kind of gets to -- it gets to the message that the secular headlines for us feel like they're more important and stronger than the cyclical ones. But you have to make your own decision, I guess.

哇。我不太確定該如何回答這個問題。我的意思是，我覺得所有事情的發展速度都加快了，所以我認為我們的客戶適應得也更快了，因此，這種情況在好的方面和壞的方面可能都同樣適用。我們與其他市場參與者一起，在為企業經濟效益提供波動性方面發揮著重要作用。我認為他們會採取行動，像以往一樣預見風險。這與 5 年前或 10 年前的情況大不相同，那時只有在明確提出問題後才會採取行動。所以，是的，目前存在供需失衡的情況，正在進行調整，但同時也採取了積極主動的措施來管理這種風險。所以我覺得，從長遠來看，這是一件好事。我的意思是，這在某種程度上傳達了一個訊息，那就是世俗新聞對我們來說似乎比週期性新聞更重要、更有影響力。但我想，你最終還是得自己做決定。

We'll take our next question from Joe Moore.

接下來我們來回答喬·摩爾提出的問題。

Following up on that last question, I guess I was surprised at how strong China was in the September quarter. And I think you talked about 2/3 of that being from domestics. That seems like a pretty big deviation. Is there anything we should be aware of there? And how much of that is kind of memory versus your sort of the foundry customers who you've seen more frequently?

關於上一個問題，我想說的是，我對中國在九月季度的強勁表現感到驚訝。我想你之前說過，其中三分之二是來自國內市場。這似乎偏差相當大。那裡有什麼需要注意的地方嗎？其中有多少是記憶型客戶，又有多少是您較常接觸的代工廠客戶？

Yes. I mean, Joe, I pointed it out because it was an uptick from the local guys. I wanted to let you know that. I don't know you're going to see that every single quarter. In fact, I know you won't. And interestingly, when I look at kind of who the customers are, and I won't name them by name, there was relative balance between foundry as well as memory.

是的。我的意思是，喬，我指出這一點是因為當地一些人的人數增加。我想讓你知道這件事。我不知道你是否每季都能看到這種情況。事實上，我知道你不會。有趣的是，當我觀察客戶群時（我不會透露他們的名字），發現晶圓代工廠和記憶體供應商之間相對平衡。

And logic actually, for that matter.

實際上，邏輯也同樣重要。

And actually in logic, you're right, Martin. So it was a strong quarter for us in China, and it was a balanced quarter.

實際上，從邏輯上講，你是對的，馬丁。所以，對於我們在中國來說，這是一個強勁且平衡的季度。

I mean, they're -- my take on this thing, answer is we tend to talk about collectively 2 or 3 core domestic participants in China. And reality is there are kind of 6 or 7.

我的意思是，就這件事而言，我的看法是，我們通常會把中國國內的兩到三個核心參與者統稱為「核心參與者」。而實際上，大概有六、七種。

Yes, there's more.

是的，還有更多。

And some of them are active at 300, some are active at 200 millimeters. Some of them are active at leading edge technologies and some, less leading edge. But there's a fairly meaningful population that doesn't maybe get fully internalized.

有些在 300 毫米處活躍，有些在 200 毫米處活躍。他們當中有些活躍於尖端技術領域，有些人則活躍於不太尖端的技術領域。但還有相當一部分人可能沒有被完全內化。

We'll take our next question from Romit Shah with Nomura Instinet.

接下來，我們將回答野村證券的 Romit Shah 提出的問題。

I guess, just as outsiders, all the data points on memory equipment CapEx and fundamentals just seemingly seemed all bad during the quarter, and yet, you exhausted your entire buyback, and you're reiterating your expectations for growth in December. So is it fair, Martin, to sort of sum up this report by saying that maybe your business is more diversified than we realized and you're confident in September being the bottom? And then the question really is just sort of the shape of the recovery from here being either U or V-shaped.

我想，作為局外人，本季記憶體設備資本支出和基本面的所有數據點似乎都很糟糕，然而，你們卻用完了所有的股票回購資金，並且重申了你們對 12 月份增長的預期。馬丁，那麼，我是否可以這樣總結這份報告：也許你的業務比我們意識到的更加多元化，而且你確信9月份是觸底反彈？那麼真正的問題就變成了，從現在開始的復甦型態是 U 型還是 V 型。

Well, I think we've been talking to the subject of diversification now for kind of 3 or 4 years. No question, we're more diversified today than we were. I think we've tried to reinforce that message even more than talking about share gains in Foundry and share gains in Logic by speaking to the SAM expansion headlines. And in the last kind of year or so, we've segued into the installed base business of the company, which is not only a great asset relative to creating an opportunity for competitive differentiation in the core systems products of the company. It's a source of revenue and profit growth at a rate that is faster than the pace of growing our installed base. I mean, there's a massive difference between 55,000 nonprocess chambers and 36,000 process chambers relative to the annuity. So that's all kind of in the mix as well. So the business is more or less as we had anticipated, slightly muted to the expectations of 3 months ago but not that much different. I mean, I actually think our calendar '18 WFE number is 98% or 99% exactly what it was 3 months ago. So I mean, that's kind of basic headline there. And we've expressed an outlook for the first half of next year, and we're not going to put numbers on it now. We'll kind of deal with that in January, so that will be a time when V or U becomes an obvious disclosure from Lam.

嗯，我想我們已經討論多元化這個主題三、四年了。毫無疑問，我們現在的業務比以前更加多元化了。我認為，我們透過談論 SAM 擴張的新聞，比談論 Foundry 和 Logic 的市佔率成長更能強化這一訊息。在過去一年左右的時間裡，我們已經轉型進入公司的已安裝基礎業務領域，這不僅是公司核心系統產品創造競爭差異化機會的巨大資產。它帶來的收入和利潤成長速度比我們現有用戶群的成長速度還要快。我的意思是，55,000 個非程序性法庭和 36,000 個程序性法庭在年金方面存在巨大差異。所以這些因素也都包含在內。所以，業務狀況基本上符合我們的預期，雖然比三個月前的預期略有遜色，但差異不大。我的意思是，我其實認為我們 2018 年的 WFE 日曆數字與 3 個月前的數字有 98% 或 99% 的相似度。所以，這就是基本的標題。我們已經對明年上半年的業績做出了展望，但現在不會給出具體的數字。我們將在 1 月處理這個問題，屆時 V 或 U 將成為 Lam 的明顯披露資訊。

Okay. And just on the buyback, you've exhausted it. So do we have to wait till the next conference call to hear about the size and scope of the next authorization?

好的。光是回購一項，你就已經用完了。那麼我們是否需要等到下次電話會議才能知道下一項授權的規模和範圍？

Well, even though the cash, like I said, Romit, the cash got all committed, we're still in the market through the structured products so -- and that was purposeful, right, taking a view of pricing, where things were at and wanted to get on with it. But the way this generally works is Martin and I all agree, here's what we think we should do. We'll go in, and we'll have a conversation with the board, and the board will have opinions and will modify it. And when we have a decision, we will communicate it to you, and we're not at that point yet.

嗯，就像我說的，羅米特，雖然現金都已經投入使用了，但我們仍然通過結構性產品進入市場——這是有意為之的，對吧，考慮到定價，以及當時的情況，我們想繼續推進。但通常情況下，我和馬丁都會同意，我們會這樣做。我們會進去，和董事會談談，董事會會提出意見並進行修改。當我們做出決定時，我們會通知您，但目前我們還沒有到那一步。

We'll take our next question from Vivek Arya with Bank of America.

接下來，我們將回答來自美國銀行的維韋克·阿亞提出的問題。

Martin, maybe a question on your services business. If say, hypothetically, WFE goes down 5% or 10% next year, what does that imply for your services business? Can you still keep it flat or even grow it? Just what is just the conceptual sensitivity to WFE?

馬丁，或許我可以問你一個關於你服務業務的問題。假設明年 WFE 下降 5% 或 10%，這對您的服務業務意味著什麼？你還能讓它保持平整甚至生長嗎？對 WFE 的概念敏感度究竟是什麼？

Well, in the calendar year, there's not so much sensitivity because in general, when we ship a system to a customer, it has a 12-month warranty so it's kind of on our guide during that period. The single biggest influence over the size of the installed base business is the number of kind of units in the installed base for which we disclosed and then the utilization of fabs. So if we show up in a world with the WFE reduction that you just characterized and there's no change in utilization of the installed base, then there is no consequence. If utilization of the installed base goes up, you're likely to see accelerated growth. And if the installed base utilization goes down, you'll see a contraction in spares and service business in the industry. So our assumption is in the context of customers have done a really good job kind of managing this issue, utilizations will run pretty high, and we have no reason to be anxious about a dip in our installed base revenues. In an independent world, as spoken to you for some time now, a little bit here today in prepared comments, we are perpetually building a portfolio of installed base productivity-related products and service offerings and invested in contributing more to the success of our customers, including opportunity for Lam. So there are some things in our control and some things that are out of our control.

嗯，就日曆年而言，這方面並沒有那麼敏感，因為通常情況下，當我們向客戶交付系統時，它有 12 個月的保固期，所以這在那個時期內算是我們的指導原則。對已安裝設備規模影響最大的因素是已安裝設備中各種類型設備的數量（我們已揭露）以及晶圓廠的使用率。所以，如果我們進入一個WFE減少的世界（正如你剛才所描述的），而已安裝設備的利用率沒有變化，那麼就不會有任何後果。如果已安裝設備的使用率提高，則很可能會出現加速成長。如果已安裝設備的利用率下降，那麼該行業的備件和服務業務就會萎縮。因此，我們的假設是，在客戶很好地處理了這個問題的情況下，利用率將保持在較高水平，我們沒有理由擔心已安裝基礎收入的下降。在一個獨立的世界裡，正如我之前一段時間以來向你們所說的，以及今天在這裡的準備發言中提到的一點，我們不斷構建與生產力相關的已安裝基礎產品和服務組合，並致力於為客戶的成功做出更多貢獻，包括為 Lam 創造機會。所以有些事情是我們能控制的，有些事情是我們無法控制的。

And as a follow-up, from what you see today, do you think memory CapEx overall is up or down next year? And when do you typically get visibility around what the spending environment will be?

其次，根據您目前所看到的，您認為明年記憶體資本支出總體上是上升還是下降？您通常何時才能了解消費環境的走向？

Vivek, the normal timing where we'll give you more color on next year would be in next quarter's earnings call. It's just a little bit too early for us to give the specificity you're asking for.

維韋克，通常情況下，我們會在下個季度的財報電話會議上向你詳細介紹明年的情況。現在我們還無法提供您所要求的具體資訊。

We'll take our next question from Toshiya Hari with Goldman Sachs.

接下來，我們將回答來自高盛的 Toshiya Hari 提出的問題。

Martin, you talked about Logic revenue being up in the first half of '19 relative to the second half of '18. Is the big driver there basically your key customers' CapEx budget going up? Or is it more due to your positioning improving from, say, 14 to 10-nanometer? Or is it both?

Martin，你提到 Logic 公司 2019 年上半年的營收比 2018 年下半年有成長。主要驅動因素是不是貴公司主要客戶的資本支出預算增加？或者，這更多是由於你的定位精度從例如 14 奈米提高到 10 奈米所致？或者兩者都是？

It's both.

兩者兼具。

It's a little bit of both.

兩者兼而有之。

Okay. And then kind of related to that, if you were to -- in terms of magnitude, you guided DRAM, Logic and Foundry up half over half. If you had to rank order those 3 in terms of the magnitude increase from the second half to the first half, is that something that you guys can do?

好的。然後，與此相關的是，如果你要——就規模而言，你引導 DRAM、邏輯和晶圓代工業務成長了一半以上。如果要以後半段到前半段的成長幅度對這 3 個人進行排名，你們能做到嗎？

I have it written down on a piece of paper in front of me, and now I've decided I'm not going to tell you. So rank order without any numbers, I would say Logic and kind of Other/Logic, which includes the image sensor opportunities and the legacy stuff, is probably the fastest growing. And DRAM is the slowest growing, and Foundry is probably in the middle. That would be kind of -- and I'm not speaking to kind of industry level here. I'm just characterizing the revenue kind of outlook for Lam and as I said, NAND contraction. So that will be our rank order. Again, it's like pretty early to be having this conversation, so take it for what it's worth at this point.

我把它寫在我面前的一張紙上，現在我決定不告訴你了。如果不考慮具體數字，我認為邏輯以及其他/邏輯（包括影像感測器機會和傳統技術）可能是成長最快的領域。DRAM 的成長速度最慢，而 Foundry 的成長速度可能處於中等水平。那會有點——我這裡指的不是產業層面。我只是在描述 Lam 的收入前景，正如我所說，NAND 快閃記憶體萎縮。這就是我們的排名順序。再說一遍，現在討論這個話題還為時過早，所以目前來看，它的價值僅供參考。

Sure. And as a quick follow-up, I just had a question on market share. Martin, clearly, if you're growing your business 14% this year, you're getting a bit of share. In your prepared remarks, you talked about some of your net wins, both in dep and etch. Is it fair to say in relation to your long-term model, where you've attached $1 billion incremental revenue for market share gains, are you tracking in line or ahead of that plan? Or how would you describe where you stand today relative to the long-term plans?

當然。最後，我還有一個關於市場佔有率的問題。馬丁，很顯然，如果你今年的業務成長了 14%，你就能獲得一定的市場份額。在您事先準備好的發言稿中，您談到了您在發展和發展方面的一些淨收益。就您的長期模型而言，您已設定了 10 億美元的增量收入目標以獲得市場份額，那麼可以說您目前的進展是否符合計劃或超出了計劃？或者，您如何描述您目前在長期計劃中所處的位置？

It was never linear. It's a tough question to answer, but a couple of data points. So when we talk about kind of penetration and defense activity this year, we're actually talking more about the economics that will play out a year from now or maybe even in 2020, right? Because there's a leading time frame on DTOR decisions and PTOR decisions. And you might remember that in the last earnings call, I think I made reference to the fact that there were tons of decisions in relative terms in the second half of this year compared to the first half of this year. So that's kind of a lot still ahead of us. So fair game for you to ask the same question to me to try and answer it in January. So far, again, we don't -- we never think though that we defend everything, but we have a net positive to forward-looking kind of economics from the penetrations and defenses in the first 9 months of this year. So pretty pleased.

它從來就不是線性的。這是一個很難回答的問題，但有一些數據點可供參考。所以，當我們談論今年的滲透和防禦活動時，我們實際上更多地是在談論一年後甚至 2020 年的經濟形勢，對吧？因為 DTOR 決策和 PTOR 決策都有先決時間。您可能還記得，在上次財報電話會議上，我提到過，與今年上半年相比，今年下半年有很多決策需要做出。所以，我們面前還有很多事情要做。所以，你完全可以問我同樣的問題，讓我在一月嘗試回答。到目前為止，我們還沒有——雖然我們從不認為我們能守住一切，但從今年前 9 個月的滲透和防禦來看，我們對未來的經濟狀況總體上是積極的。非常滿意。

We'll take our next question from Patrick Ho with Stifel.

接下來，我們將回答來自 Stifel 的 Patrick Ho 提出的問題。

Martin first off, just, I guess, follow up on some of your comments on NAND capital intensity, been looking at it from the DRAM front. As the industry continues to push to 1x, 1y and eventually to 1z, we're seeing a lot of new fab projects in DRAM. Do you believe these capital intensity trends are also impacting DRAM and this could provide a little bit of, I guess, sustainability on some of the equipment spending trends that we've seen today?

Martin，首先，我想就你之前關於 NAND 資本密集的一些評論做個後續說明，我一直在從 DRAM 的角度研究這個問題。隨著產業不斷向 1x、1y 乃至最終的 1z 邁進，我們看到 DRAM 領域湧現出許多新的晶圓廠計畫。您認為這些資本密集趨勢是否也對DRAM產生了影響，而這或許能為我們目前看到的一些設備支出趨勢提供一定的永續性？

I think it's all about kind of the economics on the revenue of the customer, honestly. I think what we've seen in the last couple of years is, obviously, an emergence of significant discipline managing supply and demand, and there has been an ASP consequence. But more than that, we've seen a transition away from units to content and density in a broader set of demand drivers. And that has allowed our customers to kind of reset the value of the bits that they're selling to their customers so that the average bit is worth kind of more by virtue of the value that's created in this kind of broader cognitive computing environment. And so if there continues to be discipline and if our customers continue to be successful getting paid for the enablement in their industry, the fact that from one generation to the next, the DRAM cost transitions are kind of less significant compared to the baseline of 5 to 10 years ago. It's much less relevant, right? I mean, clearly, when node transitions deliver less than they did in history, there's a lot of intensity by the customer, and there's a lot of intensity by Lam and our peer companies, I'm sure, to try and continue to improve the productivity of the DRAM installed base because we have a collective interest in that. But I think that the bigger question to answer relative to DRAM capital intensity is the revenue side of it, not the cost side of it. But as I've said, many times today in my -- go ahead.

說實話，我覺得這一切都跟客戶的收入經濟效益有關。我認為，過去幾年我們看到的顯然是，在管理供需方面出現了顯著的紀律，這也導致了平均售價的下降。但更重要的是，我們看到需求驅動因素正在從數量轉向內容和密度。這使得我們的客戶能夠重新定義他們向客戶銷售的比特的價值，從而使平均比特的價值因這種更廣泛的認知計算環境中創造的價值而更高。因此，如果紀律繼續保持，如果我們的客戶繼續成功地從他們所在行業的賦能中獲得報酬，那麼從一代到下一代，DRAM 成本的轉變與 5 到 10 年前的基準相比就沒那麼顯著了。這事兒就沒那麼重要了，對吧？我的意思是，很明顯，當節點轉換帶來的效能不如以往時，客戶會非常重視，我相信 Lam 和我們的同行公司也會非常重視，努力繼續提高 DRAM 已安裝基礎的生產力，因為我們在這方面有著共同的利益。但我認為，相對於 DRAM 資本密集度而言，更重要的問題是其收入方面，而不是成本方面。但正如我今天多次說過的那樣——請繼續。

As my follow-up question for Doug in terms of the services and spare parts business. You mentioned that a little bit of the CapEx spend increase is incrementally going into that business segment. How much can you leverage, I guess, your existing workforce in terms of growing that business on the labor side of things? Or is that an area where you'll also have to increase OpEx to keep up with the fast pace of growth in that business?

關於服務和備件業務，我還有後續問題想問道格。您提到，資本支出增加的一部分將逐步投入該業務領域。我想問的是，在勞動力方面，您能多大程度上利用現有員工隊伍來發展業務？或者說，在這個領域，你也需要增加營運支出，才能跟上該業務的快速成長？

Patrick, it's a different physical factor, in a different location. So there's not a lot of leverage from a labor standpoint, and we have to invest to manufacture the parts for manufacturing. So it's all good news at the end of the day. It's supporting a higher installed base, and we've got to make investments for that.

派崔克，這是不同的物理因素，發生在不同的地點。因此，從勞動力角度來看，我們沒有太多議價能力，我們還必須投資來製造製造所需的零件。所以總的來說都是好消息。它支撐著更大的用戶群體，而我們必須為此進行投資。

(Operator Instructions) We'll take our next question from Mitch Steves with RBC Capital Markets.

（操作員指示）接下來，我們將回答來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的米奇·史蒂夫斯提出的問題。

I just had a quick one on kind of 96-layer technology. Is there any of your customers that have already started working on that? Or is that something that's still to come next year?

我剛才快速了解了一下96層技術。你們的客戶中是否有已經開始著手這項工作的？或者說，那是明年才會發生的事？

Unfortunately, our customers have to answer that question.

很遺憾，這個問題必須由我們的客戶來回答。

Okay, got it. And then secondly, on the DRAM side. Do you guys see any -- I guess, when would you guys think that the pricing would stabilize in DRAM in general? Or do you guys have no view right now?

好的，明白了。其次，在DRAM方面。你們覺得DRAM的價格大概什麼時候才能穩定下來？還是你們現在完全看不到畫面？

Well, we have a view, but I think the view of our customers again is worth a lot more than ours. I mean, it's all about supply and demand, and our customers have taken action. I would argue proactively as much as reactively, and so everything moves pretty fast these days, so again, customers' disclosure is worth a lot more than ours on ASPs of devices.

我們有自己的看法，但我認為客戶的看法比我們自己的看法更有價值。我的意思是，這一切都取決於供需關係，而我們的客戶已經採取了行動。我認為應該積極主動地應對，而不是被動應對。如今一切變化都很快，所以再次強調，客戶揭露的資訊比我們揭露的資訊對設備平均售價更有價值。

We'll take our next question from Weston Twigg with KeyBanc.

接下來，我們將回答來自 KeyBanc 的 Weston Twigg 提出的問題。

First, I'm just wondering if you're seeing any change in customer behavior related to trade work concerns, whether that's in terms of the conversations you're having with them or the visibility that they're providing or commitments regarding your fab capacity heading into 2019. Any color would be helpful.

首先，我只是想知道您是否注意到客戶在貿易工作方面的行為有任何變化，無論是您與他們進行的對話，還是他們提供的可見性，或是您在 2019 年對工廠產能的承諾。任何顏色都會有幫助。

Yes. To the best of my knowledge, nothing's really changing directly related to that, although I've kind of heard a few statements and read a few things quoted about customers kind of referencing tariffs or the costs of tariffs when it comes to the pace at which they're making investments. In fact, I think I read one today out of Taiwan. So I'm sure it's not irrelevant, I mean, to the extent that a company has more cost because of tariffs, and we probably all do at some level. There's a consequence of that, and there's a reprioritization of things in the company. So not irrelevant but hard for us to kind of directly correlate. I'm just conscious that I'm seeing statements, and I'm hearing some things. And so it's in the mix of the outlook that we've described today.

是的。據我所知，這方面並沒有發生什麼直接的變化，儘管我聽到了一些聲明，也讀到了一些引述，說客戶在談到投資速度時會提到關稅或關稅成本。事實上，我今天好像讀了一篇來自台灣的文章。所以我相信這並非無關緊要，我的意思是，如果一家公司因為關稅而增加成本，那麼在某種程度上，我們可能都會面臨這種情況。由此會產生一些後果，公司內部的各項事務也需要重新調整優先順序。所以並非無關緊要，但我們很難直接將其與相關性聯繫起來。我只是意識到我看到了一些聲明，也聽到了一些事情。因此，它也包含了我們今天所描述的各種觀點之中。

Okay, that's very helpful. And then my follow-up question is just on DRAM strength in the first half that you mentioned. Is there strength from -- more from some of the pushouts you're seeing from this half? Is it related to new capacity? Or is it more just ongoing conversion activity?

好的，這很有幫助。然後我的後續問題是關於您提到的前半部分 DRAM 的性能。從上半場的一些攻擊來看，是否有更強的進攻火力？這和新增產能有關嗎？或者，這更像是一種持續的轉化活動？

It's mostly as originally planned. I don't think it's a massive kind of statement. So there are not so many industry participants in any segment these days. So you probably got a sense of who's chasing who and who's investing where for what purpose. So I think it was pretty much originally as consistent with plan.

基本和原計劃一致。我不認為這是一個意義重大的聲明。所以如今各細分領域的行業參與者都不多。所以你可能已經大致了解了誰在追逐誰，以及誰在哪些地方出於什麼目的進行投資。所以我覺得它最初基本上是按照計劃進行的。

We'll take our next question from Mehdi Hosseini with SIG.

接下來，我們將回答來自 SIG 的 Mehdi Hosseini 提出的問題。

Doug, going back to your commentary about the extra week in the March quarter, which is leading to higher expenses, should I also assume that your revenue will be positively impacted by an extra week?

道格，回到你之前關於三月份季度多出的一周導致支出增加的評論，我是否也應該認為，多出的一周也會對你的收入產生積極影響？

Technically, we have an extra week to ship product, Mehdi. I don't know that's going to meaningfully move the revenue number. I do know definitively it will impact the expenses. We'll give you the hard guide when we get to the end of the quarter then.

嚴格來說，我們還有一週的時間來出貨，Mehdi。我不知道這是否會對營收產生實質影響。我確信這肯定會對開支產生影響。到季度末的時候，我們會給你一份詳細的指南。

Okay. And then just -- I just want to go back to your comment about the deferred revenue. If I just do a simple math, I get to a shipment down 35% on a sequential basis. Is that -- does that make sense to you?

好的。然後——我只想回到你關於遞延收入的評論。簡單計算一下，出貨量較上月下降了 35%。你覺得這樣說得通嗎？

Mehdi, we're not guiding shipment anymore. We're not talking about shipments anymore.

Mehdi，我們不再負責運輸指引了。我們現在討論的不再是出貨了。

No, just for the September quarter. Just for the September quarter.

不，僅限九月的季度。僅限九月季度。

Yes. We're done talking about shipments publicly. Revenue is all we're going to be describing now. You can do analytics on whatever you want to get shipments. But at the end of the day, given the change in the revenue recognition timing, revenue is what we're going to be talking about.

是的。我們已經不再公開討論出貨量的問題了。接下來我們將只討論收入問題。你可以對任何你想分析的數據進行分析，從而獲得貨運資訊。但歸根究底，考慮到收入確認時間的變化，我們最終要討論的還是收入。

Okay, that's fair. Just a follow-up on your services. Given the increased installed systems, are these service contracts long enough to actually have an impact on your backlog? Does that help you with better visibility?

好吧，這很合理。關於貴公司的服務，我有個後續問題。鑑於已安裝系統數量增加，這些服務合約的期限是否足夠長，能夠真正對您的積壓工作產生影響？這樣能幫助你獲得更好的視野嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So if that's the case, and assuming that services is becoming a larger part of your revenue mix, why not offer a longer guide on the revenues rather than just referring to WFE?

如果情況確實如此，並且假設服務收入在您的收入組成中所佔比例越來越大，為什麼不提供更詳細的收入指南，而僅僅提及 WFE 呢？

We'll think about it, Mehdi. I mean, at the end of the day, we try to describe what we think is important for you to understand what's going on in the business. There's still just a large amount of the business in any 1 quarter that's turns based, and to me, backlog isn't that meaningful. For service, it certainly is, as Martin said. So we'll give it some thought.

我們會考慮的，邁赫迪。我的意思是，歸根結底，我們努力描述我們認為對您理解公司業務發展至關重要的事情。任何一個季度，仍然有很大一部分業務是按週結算的，對我來說，積壓訂單並沒有那麼重要。正如馬丁所說，就服務而言，的確如此。所以我們會認真考慮一下。

Yes, because just the growth in installed systems is very compelling, but it still hasn't made a difference to how you guide. And I'm just wondering what is the disconnect here.

是的，因為系統安裝量的成長非常引人注目，但這仍然沒有改變你的引導方式。我只是想知道這裡到底出了什麼問題。

I'm not sure that's actually true. I think for the last couple of quarters, you have perspective, sometimes quantitative and sometimes qualitative, on the progression for a couple of quarters including today. So I -- it's pretty hard to do what we're doing. And as many people characterize that we don't have the visibility to say what we currently say as those that do, so taking it for what it's worth, we're doing the best we can.

我不確定這是否屬實。我認為，在過去的幾個季度裡，你可以從定量和定性的角度來看待包括今天在內的幾個季度的發展。所以我覺得──我們現在做的事情相當難。許多人認為，我們不像那些有影響力的人那樣擁有足夠的知名度來表達我們目前所說的內容，所以無論如何，我們正在盡我們所能。

And speakers, we have no more questions. I'll turn it back to you.

各位發言者，我們沒有問題了。我會把它還給你。

Okay. With that, we'll conclude the call. Thank you, operator.

好的。通話到此結束。謝謝接線生。

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, you may now disconnect, and have a great rest of the day.

謝謝。女士們先生們，現在可以斷開連接了，祝您今天餘下的時間愉快。