International Business Machines Corp (IBM) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome, and thank you for standing by. (Operator Instructions) Today's conference is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time.

歡迎您，感謝您的支持。（操作員指示）今天的會議正在錄音。如果您有任何異議，您可以立即斷開連接。

Now I will turn the meeting over to Olympia McNerney, IBM's Global Head of Investor Relations. Olympia, you may begin.

現在我將會議交給 IBM 全球投資者關係主管 Olympia McNerney。奧林匹亞，你可以開始了。

Thank you. I'd like to welcome you to IBM's third-quarter 2025 earnings presentation. I'm Olympia McNerney, and I'm here today with Arvind Krishna, IBM's Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Jim Kavanaugh, IBM's Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We'll post today's prepared remarks on the IBM investor website within a couple of hours, and a replay will be available by this time tomorrow.

謝謝。歡迎大家參加 IBM 2025 年第三季財報。我是奧林匹亞·麥克納尼 (Olympia McNerney)，今天與我一起來這裡的還有 IBM 董事長、總裁兼首席執行官阿爾溫德·克里希納 (Arvind Krishna) 和 IBM 高級副總裁兼首席財務官吉姆·卡諾 (Jim Kavanaugh)。我們將在幾個小時內將今天的準備好的演講稿發佈在 IBM 投資者網站上，明天此時將提供重播。

To provide additional information to our investors, our presentation includes certain non-GAAP measures. For example, all of our references to revenue and signings growth are at constant currency. We provided reconciliation charts for these and other non-GAAP financial measures at the end of the presentation, which is posted to our investor website.

為了向我們的投資者提供更多信息，我們的簡報包含某些非 GAAP 指標。例如，我們對營收和簽約成長的所有提及均採用固定匯率計算。我們在演示結束時提供了這些和其他非 GAAP 財務指標的對帳圖表，並將其發佈在我們的投資者網站上。

Finally, some comments made in this presentation may be considered forward-looking under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements involve factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially. Additional information about these factors is included in the company's SEC filings.

最後，根據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法》，本簡報中的某些評論可能被視為前瞻性的。這些聲明涉及可能導致我們的實際結果大不相同的因素。有關這些因素的更多資​​訊包含在該公司提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中。

So with that, I'll turn the call over to Arvind.

因此，我將把電話轉給 Arvind。

Thank you for joining us today. In the third quarter, IBM delivered strong results across revenue, profit, and free cash flow exceeding our expectations. Revenue growth accelerated to 7%, our highest growth in several years, with all our segments accelerating sequentially. These results underscore the strength of our business model and portfolio and the innovation we are delivering to clients. Clients continue to turn to IBM as a trusted partner to help them modernize, embed AI, and build resilient infrastructure.

感謝您今天加入我們。第三季度，IBM 在營收、利潤和自由現金流方面均取得了強勁的業績，超出了我們的預期。營收成長加速至 7%，這是我們幾年來的最高增幅，所有部門的成長都實現了連續加速。這些結果凸顯了我們的商業模式和產品組合的優勢以及我們為客戶提供的創新。客戶繼續將 IBM 視為值得信賴的合作夥伴，幫助他們現代化、嵌入 AI 並建立有彈性的基礎設施。

Let me touch on the economy before I turn to our execution. Last quarter, I said we had moved from being cautiously optimistic to optimistic. Technology remains a key driver of growth and competitive advantage. AI adoption is accelerating, and Hybrid Cloud remains the foundation of enterprise IT. Clients are leaning on enterprise technologies to scale, innovate and drive productivity. There are always macro uncertainties, but overall, we continue to see broad-based demand from clients and remain optimistic.

在談到我們的執行情況之前，我想先談談經濟問題。上個季度，我說過我們已經從謹慎樂觀轉向樂觀。技術仍然是成長和競爭優勢的關鍵驅動力。人工智慧的採用正在加速，混合雲仍然是企業 IT 的基礎。客戶依靠企業技術來擴展、創新和提高生產力。宏觀不確定性總是存在的，但總體而言，我們繼續看到來自客戶的廣泛需求並保持樂觀。

Now turning to our execution this quarter. Our strategy remains focused Hybrid Cloud and artificial intelligence. Our products and services fuel growth and productivity for our clients. You can see this in our results for the quarter.

現在談談我們本季的執行情況。我們的策略仍然專注於混合雲和人工智慧。我們的產品和服務促進了客戶的成長和生產力。您可以從我們本季的業績中看到這一點。

Software growth accelerated to 9%, led by strength in Automation. Automation was up 22%, highlighting our end-to-end portfolio of leading solutions that optimize operations, automate infrastructure and workflows, build resiliency and drive cost efficiency for clients. Many of our Automation products are infused with AI enhancing their capabilities. HashiCorp also continues to accelerate within IBM, benefiting from our go-to-market distribution and joint product innovation, highlighting our synergy potential.

在自動化領域的帶動下，軟體成長加速至 9%。自動化程度提高了 22%，突顯了我們端到端的領先解決方案組合，這些解決方案可優化營運、自動化基礎設施和工作流程、增強彈性並為客戶提高成本效率。我們的許多自動化產品都融入了人工智慧，以增強其功能。HashiCorp 在 IBM 內部也持續加速發展，受惠於我們的市場分銷和聯合產品創新，凸顯了我們的協同潛力。

Consulting accelerated reflecting growing demand for AI services as clients need help designing, deploying and governing AI at scale. And Infrastructure delivered robust performance, growing 15% and driven by continued strength in z17, our strongest two quarter launch in history. The Spyre Accelerator, which will be available in Q4 will bring advanced generative AI and real-time inferencing capabilities inside IBM Z, redefining our enterprises capture AI value within their most mission-critical environments.

諮詢業務加速發展，反映出客戶對人工智慧服務的需求日益增長，因為客戶需要協助大規模設計、部署和管理人工智慧。基礎設施表現強勁，成長 15%，這得益於 z17 的持續強勁成長，這是我們歷史上最強勁的兩個季度發布。Spyre Accelerator 將於第四季度上市，它將為 IBM Z 內部帶來先進的生成式 AI 和即時推理功能，重新定義我們的企業在最關鍵的環境中捕捉 AI 價值。

In addition to being a demand driver, AI is also a powerful productivity driver for IBM, contributing to our strong financial performance. In 2023, we set out on a goal to achieve $2 billion of productivity savings. And today, we are well ahead of that with an expectation of $4.5 billion of annual run rate savings exiting this year. I believe we have significant opportunity ahead of us to continue to become even leaner and more nimble.

除了作為需求驅動因素之外，人工智慧也是 IBM 強大的生產力驅動因素，為我們強勁的財務表現做出了貢獻。2023 年，我們設定了實現 20 億美元生產力節約的目標。如今，我們已遠遠領先這一目標，預計今年的年度運行成本節省將達到 45 億美元。我相信，我們面前有巨大的機遇，可以繼續變得更加精簡和靈活。

Our Client Zero approach sets us apart as we have internally identified and addressed pain point on data readiness, siloed and vertical workflows, application and IT sprawl, using our own technology and domain expertise. Clients see these results and look to us to help them on their own transformations, driving over 1,000 Client Zero engagement this year.

我們的 Client Zero 方法使我們與眾不同，因為我們利用自己的技術和領域專業知識，在內部識別並解決了資料準備、孤立和垂直工作流程、應用程式和 IT 蔓延方面的痛點。客戶看到了這些成果，並希望我們能幫助他們實現自身轉型，今年推動了超過 1,000 個 Client Zero 參與。

The breadth of our AI offerings is a key differentiator, combining an innovative technology stack with consulting at scale and our Client Zero journey. Our GenAI book of business continues to show momentum at over $9.5 billion inception to date.

我們的人工智慧產品的廣度是一個關鍵的區別因素，它將創新技術堆疊與大規模諮詢和我們的客戶零旅程相結合。我們的 GenAI 業務持續呈現強勁勢頭，迄今為止業務額已超過 95 億美元。

In Consulting, we are embracing disruption and leading the way with our digital asset and services as software strategy. While we are early in this journey, we have over 200 Consulting projects using digital workers at scale. In Software, demand for watsonx and Red Hat AI remains strong, with early momentum in our Agentic platform, watsonx Orchestrate. watsonx Orchestrate helps enterprises deploy AI by connecting agents, models, and workflows with governance and security.

在諮詢領域，我們積極擁抱變革，並憑藉我們的數位資產和服務作為軟體策略引領潮流。雖然我們才剛開始這趟旅程，但我們已經有超過 200 個大規模使用數位化工作者的諮詢計畫。在軟體方面，對 watsonx 和 Red Hat AI 的需求仍然強勁，我們的 Agentic 平台 watsonx Orchestrate 早期發展勢頭強勁。 watsonx Orchestrate 透過將代理、模型和工作流程與治理和安全連接起來，幫助企業部署 AI。

Orchestration will be critical as enterprises run a variety of models to optimize cost and performance. Our hybrid approach to models enables clients to use the best option for each use case, IBM's Granite models, third-party models, or open models from Hugging Face, Meta and Mistral. We recently launched Granite 4.0, our next-generation family of open small language models. Granite 4.0, a delivers high performance and cost efficiency using 70% less memory and offering twice the inferencing speed of conventional models.

當企業運行各種模型來優化成本和效能時，編排將變得至關重要。我們採用混合模型方法，使客戶能夠針對每個用例使用最佳選項，即 IBM 的 Granite 模型、第三方模型或 Hugging Face、Meta 和 Mistral 的開放式模型。我們最近推出了 Granite 4.0，這是我們的下一代開放小語言模型系列。Granite 4.0 具有高效能和高成本效率，使用的記憶體減少了 70%，推理速度是傳統模型的兩倍。

We also partnered with Anthropic to infuse cloud into IBM products to unlock new GenAI features and capabilities. This week, we announced a partnership to run watsonx and Grok, giving clients access to their inferencing technology, which provides ultra-high-speed low-latency AI capabilities at lower costs. All this leads to real tangible value for clients. Companies like Deutsche Telekom and S&P Global are embedding watsonx into core workflows.

我們也與 Anthropic 合作，將雲端注入 IBM 產品，以解鎖新的 GenAI 功能和功能。本週，我們宣布與 watsonx 和 Grok 建立合作夥伴關係，讓客戶能夠使用他們的推理技術，以較低的成本提供超高速低延遲的 AI 功能。所有這些都為客戶帶來了真正的有形價值。德國電信和標準普爾全球等公司正在將 watsonx 嵌入核心工作流程中。

In Infrastructure, clients such as Nationwide, State Street, and Credit Agricole are turning to AI to manage increased workloads and use z17 for its advanced AI inferencing capabilities and enhanced resiliency.

在基礎設施方面，Nationwide、State Street 和 Credit Agricole 等客戶正在轉向 AI 來管理增加的工作負載，並利用 z17 的先進 AI 推理能力和增強的彈性。

Accelerating innovation remains a core focus for IBM. At our recent IBM Tech Exchange Developer and Builder Conference, we showcased how we are helping clients and partners with innovation that blends enterprise strength and AI speed. We had almost twice the number of participants as last year with speakers including United Airlines, T-Mobile, Prudential, UPS, Morgan Stanley, Verizon, and Cigna.

加速創新仍然是 IBM 的核心關注。在我們最近的 IBM Tech Exchange 開發者和建構者大會上，我們展示瞭如何透過融合企業實力和 AI 速度的創新來幫助客戶和合作夥伴。我們的參與者人數幾乎是去年的兩倍，演講者包括美國聯合航空、T-Mobile、保誠、UPS、摩根士丹利、Verizon 和 Cigna。

We announced Project Bob facilitating AI-powered software development, helping teams ship higher-quality code faster. We have more than 8,000 developers within IBM that are using Project Bob reporting productivity gains averaging 45%, another powerful Client Zero use case. We also announced new automation capabilities, including a real-time infrastructure graph connecting applications services and ownership through HashiCorp Terraform.

我們宣布了 Project Bob，旨在促進人工智慧軟體開發，幫助團隊更快地交付更高品質的程式碼。IBM 內部有超過 8,000 名開發人員正在使用 Project Bob，報告指出生產力平均提高了 45%，這是另一個強大的 Client Zero 用例。我們還宣布了新的自動化功能，包括透過 HashiCorp Terraform 連接應用程式服務和所有權的即時基礎設施圖。

As outlined at our Investor Day, we are on a path to demonstrate the first error-corrected Quantum computer by 2028, and continue to deliver key milestones in our Quantum road map. As we collaborate with our ecosystem of over 280 partners, we are making tangible progress on near-term use cases. For example, HSBC achieved a notable improvement in bond trading predictions using IBM's Heron Quantum Processor. Vanguard announced a breakthrough in optimizing portfolio construction using IBM's Quantum computing as a service.

正如我們在投資者日所概述的那樣，我們計劃在 2028 年之前展示第一台糾錯量子計算機，並繼續在我們的量子路線圖中實現關鍵里程碑。透過與超過 280 個合作夥伴的生態系統合作，我們在近期用例方面取得了實際進展。例如，匯豐銀行利用 IBM 的 Heron Quantum 處理器在債券交易預測方面取得了顯著的進展。先鋒集團宣佈在使用 IBM 量子運算即服務優化投資組合建置方面取得突破。

We recently announced a partnership with AMD to build Quantum-centric supercomputing architectures, leveraging IBM's Quantum expertise and AMD CPUs, GPUs and other accelerated technologies. Just last week, IBM as the BaaS government unveiled Europe's first IBM Quantum system to -- this marked the second installation outside the United States and underscores our commitment to global leadership in Quantum computing.

我們最近宣布與 AMD 合作，建構以量子為中心的超級運算架構，利用 IBM 的量子專業知識和 AMD 的 CPU、GPU 和其他加速技術。就在上週，IBM 作為 BaaS 政府推出了歐洲首個 IBM Quantum 系統——這是在美國以外的第二次安裝，並強調了我們對量子運算全球領導地位的承諾。

In closing, we are executing on our strategy of accelerating revenue growth and delivering higher profitability. Given these results and the momentum in our portfolio, we are raising expectations for revenue growth to more than 5% and free cash flow to about $14 billion for the year.

最後，我們正在執行加速收入成長和實現更高獲利能力的策略。鑑於這些業績和我們投資組合的勢頭，我們將今年的營收成長預期提高到 5% 以上，自由現金流提高到約 140 億美元。

With that, let me hand it over to Jim to go through the financials.

說完這些，讓我把財務狀況交給吉姆來處理。

Thanks, Arvind. In the third quarter, our revenue growth accelerated to 7%, our highest growth in several years, with all our segments accelerating sequentially. Revenue scale, mix, and productivity drove 290 basis points of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion, 22% adjusted EBITDA growth, and 15% operating earnings per share growth, highlighting the significant operating leverage in our business model. And through the first nine months, we generated $7.2 billion of free cash flow, our highest nine-month free cash flow margin in reported history.

謝謝，Arvind。第三季度，我們的營收成長加速至 7%，這是幾年來的最高增幅，所有部門的收入均連續成長。營收規模、組合和生產力推動調整後 EBITDA 利潤率擴大 290 個基點、調整後 EBITDA 成長 22% 以及每股營業收益成長 15%，凸顯了我們商業模式中顯著的經營槓桿。在前九個月，我們產生了 72 億美元的自由現金流，這是我們報告史上最高的九個月自由現金流利潤率。

We exceeded our expectations on revenue, profitability, adjusted EBITDA, earnings per share, and free cash flow, reflecting the strength of our portfolio and the disciplined execution across our business.

我們在收入、獲利能力、調整後 EBITDA、每股盈餘和自由現金流方面都超出了預期，反映了我們投資組合的實力和整個業務的嚴格執行。

Software revenue grew 9%, fueled by accelerating organic growth, up a few points since last quarter and continued contribution from our high-value annual recurring revenue base which grew to $23.2 billion, up 9% since last year. Growth in Automation accelerated to 22%, driven by strength in the organic portfolio and early synergies with HashiCorp, which maintained momentum and delivered its highest bookings quarter in history.

軟體收入成長了 9%，這得益於有機成長加速，比上一季度增長了幾個百分點，並且我們高價值年度經常性收入基礎繼續做出貢獻，增長至 232 億美元，比去年同期增長了 9%。自動化業務的成長加速至 22%，這得益於有機投資組合的強勁成長以及與 HashiCorp 的早期協同效應，HashiCorp 保持了成長勢頭並實現了歷史上最高的季度預訂量。

Red Hat bookings growth accelerated to about 20% and revenue grew 12%. This performance was driven by a softening in consumption-based services and RHEL trending back towards single-digit growth as we wrap on last year's exceptional double-digit performance. Demand for our Hybrid Cloud products remain strong, and all three of our major subscription offerings gained market share again this quarter. With growth accelerating for both OpenShift and Ansible.

Red Hat 的預訂量成長加速至約 20%，營收成長 12%。這一表現是由消費型服務的疲軟和 RHEL 回落至個位數成長趨勢所推動的，因為我們總結了去年出色的兩位數表現。我們的混合雲產品需求依然強勁，本季我們三種主要訂閱產品的市佔率再次獲得提升。OpenShift 和 Ansible 的成長都在加速。

OpenShift ARR is now $1.8 billion, growing over 30%. Data was up 7%, and driven by continued strength in our AI portfolio, and Transaction Processing revenue declined by 3%, reflecting another quarter of z17 outperformance as clients continue to prioritize hardware spend on our latest IBM Z system. While this dynamic impacts near-term revenue, we're encouraged by a healthy pipeline that positions us well for future demand.

OpenShift ARR 現為 18 億美元，成長超過 30%。數據成長了 7%，這得益於我們 AI 產品組合的持續強勁增長，而交易處理收入下降了 3%，這反映出 z17 又一個季度表現出色，因為客戶繼續優先考慮我們最新 IBM Z 系統的硬體支出。雖然這種動態會影響短期收入，但我們對健康的管道感到鼓舞，這使我們能夠很好地滿足未來的需求。

Infrastructure delivered another strong quarter, growing 15%. Hybrid Infrastructure grew 26% and Infrastructure support was flat. Within Hybrid Infrastructure, IBM Z delivered its highest third-quarter revenue in nearly two decades, up 59% year-to-year fueled by the early success of our z17 platform, purpose built for AI and Hybrid Cloud with breakthrough capabilities in real-time inferencing, quantum safe security, and AI-driven operational efficiency.

基礎建設再創佳績，本季成長 15%。混合基礎設施成長了 26%，而基礎設施支援則持平。在混合基礎設施領域，IBM Z 實現了近二十年來最高的第三季度收入，同比增長 59%，這得益於我們 z17 平台的早期成功，該平台專為人工智能和混合雲而構建，在實時推理、量子安全保障和人工智能驅動的運營效率方面具有突破性能力。

Clients are investing in z17 not only for its reliability and scalability, but because it enables secure high-performance computing at the core of their digital transformation strategies. Distributed infrastructure up 8% reflects broad-based growth across our storage portfolio as clients scale capacity to meet rising Data and AI demands. Consulting returned to growth in the third quarter with revenue up 2% and improving sequentially and marking a positive inflection point in performance.

客戶投資 z17 不僅因為它的可靠性和可擴展性，還因為它能夠作為其數位轉型策略核心的安全高效能運算。分散式基礎設施成長 8%，反映了我們儲存產品組合的廣泛成長，因為客戶擴大了容量以滿足不斷增長的數據和人工智慧需求。諮詢業務在第三季恢復成長，營收成長 2%，環比改善，標誌著業績出現積極的拐點。

Intelligent Operations was up 4%, while Strategy and Technology revenue stabilized. With both lines of business showing quarter-over-quarter momentum. This growth reflects solid demand for our strategic offerings, business application transformation, application modernization and migration, and application operations as clients focus investments on solutions that accelerate AI transformation and maximize return.

智慧營運成長了 4%，而策略和技術收入則保持穩定。兩條業務線均呈現出環比成長動能。這一成長反映了客戶對我們的策略產品、業務應用程式轉型、應用程式現代化和遷移以及應用程式營運的強勁需求，因為客戶將投資重點放在加速人工智慧轉型和最大化回報的解決方案上。

As Arvind mentioned, we are embracing AI disruption and leading with a software-driven services delivery model. We are transforming into a hybrid model of people plus software that delivers efficiency and scale. This approach is already driving internal productivity reflected in the 220 basis points of segment profit margin expansion year to date and resonating with clients seeking to operationalize AI strategies. By combining domain expertise, with scalable technology platforms, we reinforce our role as a strategic provider of choice in this evolving landscape.

正如 Arvind 所提到的，我們正在擁抱人工智慧的顛覆，並以軟體驅動的服務交付模式為主導。我們正在轉型為一種人與軟體的混合模式，以實現效率和規模。這種方法已經推動了內部生產力的提高，今年迄今為止，分部利潤率已擴大 220 個基點，並引起了尋求實施人工智慧策略的客戶的共鳴。透過將領域專業知識與可擴展的技術平台相結合，我們鞏固了我們作為不斷變化的環境中首選策略供應商的角色。

Our Consulting generative AI book of business accelerated to over $1.5 billion in the quarter, with the number of projects more than doubling year-to-year, underscoring our momentum. While total signings declined this quarter, the quality of signings continue to strengthen with more strategic wins from new clients and expanded engagements within existing ones.

本季度，我們的顧問生成 AI 業務額加速成長至 15 億美元以上，專案數量較去年同期成長一倍以上，凸顯了我們的發展動能。雖然本季簽約總量有所下降，但簽約品質持續提高，新客戶贏得了更多策略勝利，現有客戶的合作也擴大了。

Turning to profitability. We have delivered nine consecutive quarters of operating pretax margin expansion, highlighting the evolution of our portfolio mix and our laser focus on productivity, which again played out this quarter. Revenue scale, mix and productivity drove expansion of operating gross profit margin by 120 basis points, adjusted EBITDA margin by 290 basis points, and operating pretax margin by 200 basis points, ahead of our expectations and well above our model.

轉向盈利能力。我們已經連續九個季度實現了營業稅前利潤率的擴大，這凸顯了我們的投資組合的演變以及我們對生產力的高度關注，而這在本季度再次得到了體現。收入規模、產品組合和生產力推動營業毛利率擴大 120 個基點，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率擴大 290 個基點，營業稅前利潤率擴大 200 個基點，超出我們的預期，遠高於我們的模型。

Segment profit margins expanded by 420 basis points in Infrastructure, 270 basis points in Software, and 200 basis points in Consulting, with Consulting margins at the highest level in three years. Revenue scale and mix contribution from IBM Z is a significant source of profitability and free cash flow. And combined with the 3 to 4x stack multiplier helps fuel our investment in innovation and drive growth.

基礎設施業務部門利潤率擴大了 420 個基點，軟體業務部門利潤率擴大了 270 個基點，諮詢業務部門利潤率擴大了 200 個基點，其中諮詢業務利潤率達到三年來的最高水平。IBM Z 的收入規模和組合貢獻是獲利能力和自由現金流的重要來源。結合 3 到 4 倍的堆疊乘數，有助於推動我們對創新的投資並推動成長。

Productivity is also a key driver of profit margin expansion. As we deploy AI at scale across IBM in areas including finance, supply chain, sales, HR, service delivery, and customer support to improve efficiency and reduce costs. While we have made progress on this journey and expect $4.5 billion of run rate savings exiting this year, there is still significant opportunity ahead for us to drive even more efficiency and cost savings.

生產力也是利潤率擴大的關鍵驅動力。我們在 IBM 的財務、供應鏈、銷售、人力資源、服務交付和客戶支援等領域大規模部署人工智慧，以提高效率並降低成本。雖然我們在這過程中取得了進展，預計今年的運行成本節省將達到 45 億美元，但我們仍然有很大機會進一步提高效率並節省成本。

Through the third quarter, we generated $7.2 billion of free cash flow, up about $600 million year over year, resulting in our highest year-to-date free cash flow margin in reported history. The largest driver of this growth is adjusted EBITDA, up $1.8 billion year over year, partially offset by proceeds from the Palo Alto QRadar transaction, which resulted in a reduction in CapEx in the third quarter of last year and working capital dynamics.

截至第三季度，我們產生了 72 億美元的自由現金流，比去年同期增加了約 6 億美元，創下了報告歷史上最高的年初至今的自由現金流利潤率。這一增長的最大驅動力是調整後的 EBITDA，同比增長 18 億美元，但部分被 Palo Alto QRadar 交易的收益所抵消，這導致去年第三季度資本支出減少和營運資本動態。

Our strong liquidity position, solid investment-grade balance sheet and disciplined capital allocation policy remain a focus for us. We ended the quarter with cash of $14.9 billion. Our debt balance ending the quarter was $63.1 billion, including $11.3 billion of debt for our financing business. With the receivables portfolio that is over 75% investment grade. In addition, year to date, we returned $4.7 billion to shareholders in the form of dividends.

我們強大的流動性狀況、穩健的投資等級資產負債表和嚴格的資本配置政策仍然是我們關注的重點。本季末我們的現金為 149 億美元。本季末我們的債務餘額為 631 億美元，其中包括融資業務的 113 億美元債務。應收帳款組合的投資等級超過 75%。此外，今年迄今為止，我們以股息的形式向股東返還了 47 億美元。

Now let me talk about what we see going forward. Through the first nine months of the year, we delivered 5% revenue growth, 17% adjusted EBITDA growth, 10% operating earnings per share growth, and 9% free cash flow growth. The strength and diversity of our portfolio, disciplined capital allocation, and relentless focus on productivity, continue to drive the durability of our revenue and free cash flow performance.

現在讓我來談談我們對未來的展望。今年前九個月，我們的營收成長了 5%，調整後 EBITDA 成長了 17%，每股營業收益成長了 10%，自由現金流成長了 9%。我們投資組合的實力和多樣性、嚴格的資本配置以及對生產力的不懈關注，繼續推動我們的收入和自由現金流表現的持久性。

Given the strength of this performance, we are raising our expectations for revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and free cash flow. We now expect to deliver revenue growth of more than 5%, adjusted EBITDA growth of mid-teens, and free cash flow of about $14 billion for 2025.

鑑於這一強勁表現，我們提高了對收入、調整後 EBITDA 和自由現金流的預期。我們現在預計，到 2025 年，收入成長率將超過 5%，調整後的 EBITDA 成長率將達到中等水平，自由現金流將達到約 140 億美元。

Let me focus on full-year growth for the segments. We continue to expect Software revenue growth of approaching double digits for the full year. Through the first nine months, we delivered growth above our model of 17% in Automation, an in-line model growth of 7% in Data, and these trends should continue. And we continue to expect mid-teens growth for Red Hat, albeit at the low end. This is underpinned by strong bookings growth in the third quarter of about 20%, and our revenue under contract, which is growing in the mid-teens.

讓我重點關註一下各部門的全年成長。我們繼續預計全年軟體收入成長將接近兩位數。在前九個月中，我們在自動化領域實現了高於模型的 17% 的成長，在資料領域實現了 7% 的線上模型成長，而這些趨勢應該會持續下去。我們仍然預期 Red Hat 的成長速度將達到十幾歲左右，儘管幅度較低。這是由第三季約 20% 的強勁預訂量成長和合約收入的中位數成長支撐的。

As we wrap on elevated growth in consumption-based services last year, we expect double-digit revenue growth in the fourth quarter with an accelerated growth profile heading into 2026. While Transaction Processing was down 1% year to date as clients prioritize spend on our high-value innovation z17, the strength of the new cycle provides future monetization value across the Z stack.

隨著去年消費型服務的快速成長，我們預計第四季的營收將實現兩位數成長，並且到 2026 年將呈現加速成長態勢。雖然由於客戶優先考慮我們高價值創新 z17 的支出，交易處理今年迄今下降了 1%，但新周期的強勁表現為整個 Z 堆疊提供了未來的貨幣化價值。

We are seeing the strength in our pipeline as we enter the fourth quarter, which we expect will return to growth. With continued strength in z17, we now expect Infrastructure to contribute over 1.5 points to IBM's revenue growth this year.

進入第四季度，我們看到了產品線的強勁成長，我們預計產品線將恢復成長。隨著 z17 的持續強勁表現，我們預計基礎設施今年將為 IBM 的營收成長貢獻超過 1.5 個百分點。

In Consulting, we are encouraged by our return to growth this quarter. and continued progress in our GenAI book of business, and now we see an inflection in growth going forward with fourth-quarter revenue performance similar to our third-quarter growth.

在諮詢業務方面，我們對本季恢復成長感到鼓舞。我們的 GenAI 業務也持續取得進展，現在我們看到未來成長的轉折點，第四季的營收表現與第三季的成長相似。

Now turning to profitability. We started this year expecting over 50 basis points of operating pretax margin expansion. And through the first nine months of this year, we delivered 130 basis points of expansion, well ahead of our expectations. This performance is driven by our revenue scale, portfolio mix, and progress with productivity initiatives, enabling operating leverage while providing investment flexibility.

現在轉向獲利能力。我們今年年初預計營業稅前利潤率將擴大 50 個基點以上。今年前九個月，我們的成長率達到了 130 個基點，遠遠超出了我們的預期。這一業績是由我們的收入規模、投資組合以及生產力計劃的進展所推動的，從而實現了經營槓桿，同時提供了投資靈活性。

We are raising IBM's full-year operating pretax margin expansion to over 1 point. And our operating tax rate expectation for the year remains in the mid-teens. For the fourth quarter, we are comfortable with consensus estimates for constant currency revenue growth and profitability.

我們將 IBM 全年營業稅前利潤率增幅提高至 1 個百分點以上。我們對今年的營業稅率預期仍維持在十五六個百分點。對於第四季度，我們對以固定貨幣計算的收入成長和獲利能力的普遍預期感到滿意。

Let me conclude by saying we are pleased with our continued disciplined execution and look forward to capturing growth opportunities ahead of us.

最後，我想說，我們對持續嚴格的執行感到滿意，並期待抓住未來的成長機會。

Arvind and I are now happy to take your questions. Olympia, let's get started.

Arvind 和我現在很高興回答您的問題。奧林匹亞，我們開始吧。

Thank you, Jim. Before we begin Q&A, I'd like to mention a couple of items. First, supplemental information is provided at the end of the presentation. And then second, as always, I'd ask you to refrain from multipart questions.

謝謝你，吉姆。在我們開始問答之前，我想提幾點。首先，在演示結束時提供補充資訊。其次，像往常一樣，我要求您不要問多部分的問題。

Operator, let's please open it up for questions.

接線員，請讓我們開始提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Amit Daryanani, Evercore ISI.

Amit Daryanani，Evercore ISI。

Yes. I guess maybe just -- I want to focus on free cash flow. So I really appreciate the quantification of free cash flow at $14 billion for the year. And if I get my math right, this sort of implies free cash flow is up double digits in '25 and your conversion rates around 125% give or take. Can you just touch on if there's any one-off dynamics that we should be aware of that are help you in free cash flow in '25?

是的。我想也許只是──我想關注自由現金流。因此，我非常欣賞將今年的自由現金流量化為 140 億美元。如果我的計算正確的話，這意味著 25 年的自由現金流將成長兩位數，而轉換率則在 125% 左右。您能否簡單談談，是否有任何我們應該注意的一次性動態可以幫助您在 25 年實現自由現金流？

I'm really just trying to think that as we get into '26 and if your growth is in line to your longer-term models, is there anything that could preclude free cash flow growing a few points higher than sales growth, some of the way you folks have talked about it? I'd love to just kind of spend a little bit of time on free cash flow. And if anything, all does on the capital allocation as well.

我真的只是想想想，當我們進入 26 年時，如果你們的成長符合你們的長期模型，有什麼因素會阻止自由現金流的成長比銷售額的成長高出幾個點，你們有些人已經談到了這一點？我很樂意花一點時間研究自由現金流。如果有的話，一切都與資本配置有關。

Thanks, Amit. I appreciate the question. And it's right at the heart of how Arvind has repositioned this company around the two key measures: one, accelerating revenue growth and two, is driving that free cash flow engine that's going to fuel the investments for us to continue to make to drive long-term sustainable competitive advantage. But if you take a step back first, as we said in prepared remarks, we're very pleased with our free cash flow engine, starting out the next evolution of our journey coming off the midterm model.

謝謝，阿米特。我很感謝你提出這個問題。這正是 Arvind 圍繞著兩個關鍵措施重新定位公司的核心：一是加速收入成長；二是推動自由現金流引擎，這將為我們繼續進行投資提供動力，從而推動長期可持續的競爭優勢。但如果你先退一步，正如我們在準備好的發言中所說的那樣，我們對我們的自由現金流引擎感到非常滿意，從中期模型開始我們旅程的下一個演變。

Year to date, $7.2 billion, up $600 million year over year, highest free cash flow margin reported history through three quarters for our company. And I'll just state that underneath it, we overcame in the third quarter, a $500 million headwind from last year as a result of the Palo Alto QRadar transaction that was recorded as an asset sale reduction in CapEx. So we got through 2025 headwind around that.

今年迄今，自由現金流利潤率為 72 億美元，較去年同期增加 6 億美元，創下公司三個季度以來的最高紀錄。我只想說，我們在第三季度克服了去年因 Palo Alto QRadar 交易而遭受的 5 億美元逆風，該交易被記錄為資本支出中的資產出售減少。因此，我們克服了 2025 年面臨的逆風。

What's driving that free cash flow? Probably the most important thing is the underlying fundamentals of our business, an accelerating top line revenue growth profile and an operating leverage engine that is driving productivities like we haven't seen in a long period of time. I think we're nine quarters in a row of driving operating leverage and significant margin productivity. So I would tell you, high-quality, high-sustainable free cash flow. And that's what gave us the confidence for the second quarter in a row to take up our free cash flow estimate for the year, now about $14 billion.

是什麼推動了自由現金流？可能最重要的是我們業務的基本面，加速的收入成長狀況和推動生產力的營運槓桿引擎，這是我們長期以來從未見過的。我認為我們已經連續九個季度推動經營槓桿和顯著的利潤率生產力。所以我會告訴你，高品質、高永續性的自由現金流。這使得我們有信心連續第二季實現今年的自由現金流預估，目前約為 140 億美元。

Why did we do that? We took up revenue. We took up operating margin. We took up adjusted EBITDA, we took up our profitability, and all that leads to free cash flow. When you take a look at what's driving that $14 billion, $2.5 billion, give or take, year-to-year growth in adjusted EBITDA. Mid-teens growth, well above our model. And underneath that, you take a look at some of the dynamics we've been talking about since back in January.

我們為什麼要這麼做？我們獲得了收入。我們佔用了營業利潤。我們採用了調整後的 EBITDA，採用了盈利能力，所有這些都帶來了自由現金流。如果你看一下是什麼推動了調整後 EBITDA 每年以 140 億美元、25 億美元左右的速度成長。十幾歲的成長速度，遠高於我們的模型。在這之下，您可以看到我們自一月份以來一直在談論的一些動態。

Yes, higher profitable based engine will pay a higher cash tax. Yes, we're investing long term for this business. We are going to have higher CapEx outside of the QRadar transaction. And yes, we made a significant strategic acquisition. We've got acquisition-related charges and foregone interest. All of that is embedded in 2025's guidance.

是的，利潤更高的引擎將支付更高的現金稅。是的，我們正在為這項業務進行長期投資。除了 QRadar 交易之外，我們還將有更高的資本支出。是的，我們進行了一次重大的策略性收購。我們有與收購相關的費用和放棄的利息。所有這些都包含在 2025 年的指導中。

Now you take a step back to the heart of your question of 2026. 2026, I would tell you, what is our free cash flow generation engine flywheel? It's accelerated revenue growth the 5%-plus in this company is driving operating leverage and it's a leveraging an efficient balance sheet. We see all that continuing to play out in 2026.

現在，您回到 2026 年問題的核心。2026年，我會告訴你，我們的自由現金流生成引擎飛輪是什麼？該公司收入成長加速（5% 以上），推動了營運槓桿，並發揮了高效資產負債表的作用。我們看到這一切將在 2026 年繼續上演。

And those underlying fundamentals, yes, they deliver a sustainable realization number, by the way, in the mid- to high-120s, kind of to your question. By the way, we've been there for four years in a row already. So we can handle that. So you bring that all together, I think it talks to the statement and the confidence of our focused portfolio, our disciplined capital allocation, the diversity of our business model and the relentless focus of us driving productivity and operating leverage that gives us the investment flexibility to continue driving long-term sustainable competitive advantage.

是的，這些基本面確實提供了一個可持續的實現數字，順便說一下，在 120 年代中後期，這有點像你的問題。順便說一句，我們已經連續四年去那裡了。所以我們可以處理這個問題。所以，把所有這些綜合起來，我認為這說明了我們重點投資組合的聲明和信心、我們嚴謹的資本配置、我們業務模式的多樣性以及我們對提高生產力和營運槓桿的不懈關注，這為我們提供了投資靈活性，以繼續推動長期可持續的競爭優勢。

So thank you very much for the question.

非常感謝您的提問。

Wamsi Mohan, Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Wamsi Mohan。

Arvind, you said AI adoption is accelerating right at the top of the call. And I'm wondering if you can maybe help us think through the financial impact in maybe revenue terms for IBM, how we should think about the progression for that? Are we hitting some kind of inflection that we should see meaningful upside into '26 on the AI front?

Arvind，您在電話會議開始時就表示人工智慧的採用正在加速。我想知道您是否可以幫助我們思考這對 IBM 的財務影響（也許是收入的影響），我們應該如何看待這一進程？我們是否正經歷某種轉折，從而在 26 年看到人工智慧領域出現有意義的上升空間？

And maybe quickly, your quick thoughts on maybe the impact of the federal government shutdown if there's any materiality to that to IBM here in the fourth quarter. And if I could, Jim, if you could just clarify the organic growth in Software in third quarter and expectations for transaction processing going into the end of the year?

也許您能快速思考聯邦政府關門對 IBM 第四季的影響是否有實質影響。吉姆，如果可以的話，您能否解釋一下第三季度軟體的有機增長情況以及對年底交易處理的預期？

Wamsi, thanks for those questions. Let me try and unpack it. Let me go with the easiest one first. The easiest one is on the current government shutdown I would tell you that we see a de minimis impact to IBM. It's always hard to say zero, because something could happen. We still got two months to go in the quarter. But so far, we have not seen any impact from the shutdown. And the reason for that is the makeup of our business.

Wamsi，謝謝你提出這些問題。讓我試著解開它。我先從最簡單的一個說起。最簡單的一個是關於當前政府關門的問題，我會告訴你，我們看到這對 IBM 的影響微乎其微。說零總是很難，因為可能會發生一些事情。本季還剩兩個月的時間。但到目前為止，我們還沒有看到關閉帶來的任何影響。原因在於我們的業務組成。

Our technology business is largely comprised of hardware as well as software, software mostly on a subscription basis. These are running critical systems, payments for social security, benefits for the VA, all of these are considered essential, so I don't really see that at risk. A little bit over half the business is Consulting projects, but the consulting we do is of a similar nature. ERP, benefits, helping people reduce paper reduce errors back to payments, these are all considered essential, and that is the reason that we maybe in the minority of not seeing any direct impact so far.

我們的技術業務主要由硬體和軟體組成，軟體主要以訂閱方式提供。這些都是運行關鍵系統、支付社會安全金、為退伍軍人事務部提供福利，所有這些都被認為是必不可少的，所以我認為這不會有風險。超過一半的業務是諮詢項目，但我們所做的諮詢性質相似。ERP、福利、幫助人們減少紙張、減少付款錯誤，這些都被認為是必不可少的，這就是我們可能是少數迄今為止沒有看到任何直接影響的人的原因。

Now I'll just leave it at that because so far, we have not. Nobody has come to us about any of these projects. And so that's the first question. That is straightforward.

現在我就不多說了，因為到目前為止我們還沒有。沒有人來找過我們討論這些項目。這是第一個問題。這很簡單。

Next, you asked about AI. Look, our book of business, we talked about it would be over $9.5 billion. Just the Consulting piece was $1.5 billion in the quarter itself. These are very real numbers. So as those Consulting projects start to get executed and as that backlog builds up, certainly the contribution to Consulting is going to be very real.

接下來，您詢問了有關人工智慧的問題。你看，我們談到我們的業務額將超過 95 億美元。本季僅諮詢業務就達 15 億美元。這些都是非常真實的數字。因此，隨著這些諮詢項目開始執行以及積壓訂單的增加，對諮詢的貢獻肯定會非常真實。

We talked about another number tied there, which is not a different number, is the 200 projects in Consulting, which are already using digital workers, which effectively are the AI agents that we have built that get deployed by our consultants on behalf of our clients. About -- not quite, but close to 20% of our overall book of business is Technology and Software. And there, that is mostly subscription revenue as well as products that people are purchasing from us.

我們討論了與之相關的另一個數字，這不是一個不同的數字，而是諮詢領域的 200 個項目，這些項目已經在使用數位化工作者，它們實際上是我們構建的人工智慧代理，由我們的顧問代表我們的客戶進行部署。大約——不完全是，但我們整體業務的 20% 左右是技術和軟體。其中大部分是訂閱收入以及人們從我們這裡購買的產品。

So those numbers certainly begin to add up. And I would tell you that a big fuel behind both our OpenShift growth as well as our Automation growth is due to the AI capabilities that are infused inside those products. So if I sort of put the first two pieces together, de minimis on the government shutdown and definitely, the AI piece is a strong contributor to the software growth and I believe it's a big piece of why Consulting is big need to return to growth because we call the play to move towards AI almost two years ago. So as that book of business is built up, it is overcoming the headwinds from staff augmentation projects going away and people getting rid of discretionary spending and consulting.

因此這些數字肯定會開始增加。我想告訴你們，OpenShift 和自動化成長背後的一大動力來自於這些產品中融入的人工智慧功能。因此，如果我將前兩部分放在一起，那麼政府關門的影響微乎其微，而人工智慧無疑是軟體成長的重要貢獻者，我相信這也是諮詢業需要恢復成長的重要原因，因為我們在近兩年前就呼籲邁向人工智慧。因此，隨著業務規模的擴大，它正在克服人員擴充專案消失以及人們擺脫可自由支配的支出和諮詢所帶來的阻力。

Jim, I'll let you take the third piece.

吉姆，我要你拿第三塊。

Yes. Just to amplify the last piece, and then I'll get into your question about Software organic and TP. To Arvind's point, year to date, from a software perspective, we're growing 8.5% overall, approaching 9% right now. About 2 points of that growth is coming out from our GenAI book of business. So we're getting very good realization and penetration.

是的。只是為了擴大最後一部分，然後我會回答你關於軟體有機和 TP 的問題。正如 Arvind 所說，從軟體角度來看，今年迄今為止，我們的整體成長率為 8.5%，目前接近 9%。其中約 2 個百分點的成長來自我們的 GenAI 業務。因此，我們獲得了非常好的認識和滲透力。

To Arvind's point, or Consulting, north of a $7.5 billion book of business I put that up against any consulting company right now. We called that play to Arvind's point, a few years ago. We do think we have a differentiated competitive value proposition of a company with an integrated tech stack, plus strategic partnership AI, plus a consulting business at scale with an integral part of IBM Clients Zero that drives distinctive use cases and references.

對於 Arvind 的觀點，或諮詢業，其業務規模超過 75 億美元，我認為目前它與任何諮詢公司都無可比擬。幾年前，我們根據 Arvind 的觀點提出了這個觀點。我們確實認為，我們擁有一家差異化的競爭價值主張，即擁有整合技術堆疊、策略合作夥伴 AI 以及大規模諮詢業務的公司，其中 IBM Clients Zero 是其不可或缺的一部分，可以推動獨特的用例和參考。

We've already had over 1,000 client engagements year to date around GenAI from an enterprise, Software and Consulting perspective overall. In Consulting, it's already north of 22% of our $31 billion backlog. And in this quarter, we eclipsed double-digit composition of our revenue, 12% of our revenue, growing very nicely at still a 2- to 3-point competitive advantage in terms of margin overall. And by the way, you see that play out in our consulting margins year to date, up 220 basis points, the highest margins we've had in a long time.

今年迄今為止，從企業、軟體和諮詢的角度來看，我們已經與 1,000 多家客戶就 GenAI 展開合作。在諮詢領域，我們的 310 億美元積壓訂單已超過 22%。本季度，我們的營收組成超過了兩位數，佔總營收的 12%，成長非常順利，整體利潤率仍維持 2 到 3 個百分點的競爭優勢。順便說一句，您會看到，今年迄今為止，我們的諮詢利潤率上漲了 220 個基點，這是我們長期以來的最高利潤率。

Now to your point about Software. Software, we're very pleased, growing 9% in the quarter. We accelerated about 3 points organically quarter to quarter. This wasn't an inorganic contribution. In fact, our inorganic contribution came down as we wrapped on some of these. It's being driven by the strong contribution of our high-value recurring revenue now a book of business, $23 billion, up 9%. And when you look underneath it, TP, TP right now just given the strength of the mainframe cycle, driving cycle dynamics, we're very encouraged around the future monetization value opportunity.

現在談談關於軟體的觀點。軟體，我們非常高興，本季成長了 9%。我們每季有機成長了約 3 個百分點。這並不是無機貢獻。事實上，當我們完成其中一些工作時，我們的無機貢獻就下降了。這是由我們高價值經常性收入的強勁貢獻所推動的，目前該收入已達到業務規模 230 億美元，成長 9%。當你從根本上看待它時，TP，現在的 TP 僅僅考慮到大型機週期和駕駛週期動態的強度，我們對未來的貨幣化價值機會感到非常鼓舞。

And as you heard in our prepared remarks, we're calling a return to growth in TP in the fourth quarter with the strong pipeline we got. By the way, if you map it back to the z16 cycle, what happened? In '22, our TP revenue was flat. In '23, we grew high-single digit. In '24, we grew double digit. You look at '25 right now, we're calling back to growth, probably a quarter early compared to a historical cycle.

正如您在我們準備好的發言中所聽到的，我們預計憑藉我們強大的產品線，第四季度 TP 將恢復成長。順便問一下，如果將其映射回 z16 循環，會發生什麼？22 年，我們的 TP 收入持平。23年，我們的成長率達到了高個位數。24年，我們的成長率達到了兩位數。現在看看 25 年，我們正在恢復成長，可能比歷史週期提早了一個季度。

We feel very good about that growth profile. And given the strong z17 where we've shipped over 100% more MIPS than the p16 -- or the z16 cycle, we're actually feeling pretty good about that valuation opportunity moving forward.

我們對這一成長前景感到非常滿意。鑑於 z17 表現強勁，我們的 MIPS 出貨量比 p16 或 z16 週期高出 100% 以上，我們實際上對未來的估值機會感到非常樂觀。

Ben Reitzes, Melius Research.

Ben Reitzes，Melius Research。

Arvind, I appreciate that fourth-quarter reported software growth is set to accelerate in your guidance. It sounds like above 10%. And I was just wondering about next year, you do wrap the Hashi acquisition in the spring, I think March.

Arvind，我很欣賞您預測的第四季軟體成長將會加速。聽起來好像超過 10%。我只是想知道明年的情況，你們會在春季完成 Hashi 收購，我想是三月。

Do you -- are there signs that it can accelerate from here? Obviously, with Red Hat decelerating a little, I just think folks would like to know broadly if you can keep double-digit next year or even accelerate based on the portfolio, realizing that you're wrapping the acquisitions in that time frame.

有跡象表明它會從現在開始加速嗎？顯然，隨著 Red Hat 的成長速度有所放緩，我認為人們想大致了解明年您是否可以保持兩位數的成長，甚至根據產品組合加速成長，同時意識到您正在那個時間範圍內完成收購。

Yes, Ben, great question. So let me decompose it into the four parts of software that we talk about, and then we'll touch on acquisitions and their contribution. And then I'll ask Jim to try to put it all together back into the financial model for you.

是的，本，這個問題問得好。因此，讓我將其分解為我們討論的軟體的四個部分，然後我們將討論收購及其貢獻。然後我會請吉姆嘗試將所有內容整合到您的財務模型中。

So let's take Red Hat. We talked about 20% signings growth this quarter. We had similar numbers in the previous quarter. As that becomes the bulk of the Red Hat book of business entering 2026, we do expect to see Red Hat returning to mid-teens or close to mid-teens growth. So that would be an acceleration from where we are this quarter.

以紅帽為例，我們談到了本季簽約量成長 20%。我們上一季的數據也類似。隨著這成為 2026 年紅帽業務的主體，我們確實預計紅帽將恢復到十幾歲或接近十幾歲的中期增長。因此，這將是我們本季的一個加速。

Then next, we talked about and in the last question, Jim touched on Transaction Processing or mainframe software. We have seen this happen multiple times. In the first couple of quarters of a new cycle, tends to come down because people are very much focused on getting their hardware capacity. As that hardware capacity gets deployed, then the TP revenue begins to come up, along with some of the ELA cycle dynamics that are there, and we begin to see that. So I expect to see TP growth, not quite in double digits to be clear, but let's call it low single digits, for sure, into next year.

接下來，我們討論了最後一個問題，Jim 談到了事務處理或大型主機軟體。我們已經多次看到這種情況發生。在新周期的頭幾個季度，價格往往會下降，因為人們非常注重獲得硬體容量。隨著硬體容量的部署，TP 收入開始上升，同時也會出現一些 ELA 週期動態，我們開始看到這一點。因此，我預計 TP 的成長速度不會達到兩位數，但可以肯定的是，明年的成長速度將達到低個位數。

Automation has been growing in this last quarter at 22%. Yes, the HashiCorp acquired revenue was a piece of it. And as you point out, that will go away in the second quarter. However, the acquired properties we have tend to provide continued growth for quite a while. Because of the Hashi bookings, which are significantly ahead of where we had planned them to be, I expect we'll continue to see growth out of Hashi through 2026 as well.

上一季自動化程度成長了 22%。是的，HashiCorp 獲得的收入是其中的一部分。正如您所指出的，這種情況將在第二季消失。然而，我們所收購的資產往往能夠在相當長的一段時間內持續成長。由於 Hashi 的預訂量大大超出了我們的計劃，我預計到 2026 年 Hashi 還將繼續增長。

Now not quite as much as and acquired growth, but I do expect that we'll continue to see automation in the double digits, for sure, if -- but maybe not north of 20. And we've continued to see the data and AI portfolio grow in the mid- to high single digits.

現在還沒有達到並獲得增長的水平，但我確實預計我們將繼續看到兩位數的自動化，當然，如果——但可能不會超過 20。我們繼續看到數據和人工智慧投資組合以中高個位數成長。

Now that does put aside what other acquisitions we will do. Part of our model for software is that we'll get a couple of points of growth from acquired revenue, and we see a good market for targets. Yes, that is yet to play out. But in the current regulatory environment, combined with what we can see out there, we expect that we should be able to do that as well. So that was sort of giving you color on the portfolio and the different pieces.

現在我們確實把將要進行的其他收購放在一邊。我們的軟體模型的一部分是，我們將從收購收入中獲得幾個成長點，並且我們看到了良好的目標市場。是的，這還沒有發生。但在當前的監管環境下，結合我們所看到的情況，我們預期我們也應該能夠做到這一點。因此，這可以讓你了解投資組合和不同部分的情況。

I'll ask Jim to get into them closing it back up in terms of sort of what is the organic and inorganic and overall software numbers.

我會請吉姆就有機、無機和整體軟體數字等方面來進一步闡述。

Yes. Thanks, Ben, for the question overall. I mean, obviously, Software, we are a software-centric platform company overall. So it's at the heart of both our top line growth vector profile and also, more importantly, from a free cash flow generation engine overall because it delivers about three-fourths of our profit.

是的。謝謝 Ben 提出這個問題。我的意思是，顯然，軟體，我們總體上是一家以軟體為中心的平台公司。因此，它是我們營收成長向量概況的核心，更重要的是，也是整體自由現金流產生引擎的核心，因為它提供了我們約四分之三的利潤。

If you take a look at '25, I think we positioned extremely well with regards to accelerating revenue growth throughout the year off of tougher comps at the end of '24. We got to remember that. And I think that's a reflection of the strength of our portfolio, the diversity of our portfolio across the board and to the disciplined execution.

如果你看一下 25 年，我認為我們在 24 年底面臨更嚴峻的競爭形勢下，在加速全年營收成長方面處於非常有利的地位。我們必須記住這一點。我認為這反映了我們投資組合的實力、投資組合的多樣性以及嚴格的執行力。

Now when you look at '26, early indicators, I'll put them in some big buckets, Arvind went into some of the detail. First, I think we shouldn't forget, and Arvind called this out 90 days ago, which I think surprised many of you. We're operating in an attractive TAM and a positive backdrop from a technology perspective overall.

現在，當您查看 26 個早期指標時，我會將它們放在一些大桶中，Arvind 詳細介紹了一些細節。首先，我認為我們不應該忘記，阿爾溫德 90 天前就提出過這一點，我想這讓你們很多人感到驚訝。從整體技術角度來看，我們正處於一個有吸引力的 TAM 和積極的背景下。

We feel very good about technology being a source of competitive advantage. And you're seeing that play out in areas around Hybrid Cloud modernization around AI, around Automation in many areas, we see that continue. So the market backdrop, we couldn't be more optimistic around '26.

我們非常高興地看到，科技是競爭優勢的來源。您會看到這種情況在混合雲現代化、人工智慧、自動化等許多領域中得到體現，而這種情況還在繼續。因此，就市場背景而言，我們對 26 年左右的市場前景十分樂觀。

Two, the strength and diversity of our portfolio, not only has it been repositioned over the last three or four years to accelerate growth. What is happening? More and more of our composition of software is now aligned to higher growth end markets, which gives us a better vector of growth even as we go into '26.

二，我們的投資組合實力和多樣性不僅在過去三、四年內進行了重新定位以加速成長。怎麼了？我們的軟體產品越來越多地面向更高成長的終端市場，這為我們進入 26 年提供了更好的成長載體。

Three, our annuity portfolio. And I don't think we get a lot of value for this, and we keep bringing it up. Over a $23 billion ARR book of business, we feel we're going to exit the fourth quarter at double digits. That's a great indicator for 2026, because that is 80% of our software portfolio overall.

三、我們的年金投資組合。我不認為我們從中得到太多價值，但我們卻不斷提起這件事。我們預計，憑藉超過 230 億美元的 ARR 業務帳簿，第四季的業績將達到兩位數。這對 2026 年來說是一個很好的指標，因為這佔了我們整體軟體組合的 80%。

Four, new innovation, GenAI, I already talked about GenAI, the book of business and the acceleration we got, and all of the capital investment that's going into the infrastructure providers, I think, is just going to accelerate the innovation curve for enterprise AI overall. And we are a leader in enterprise AI just given our tech stack, our Software portfolio and Consulting, and that should deliver a few points.

第四，新的創新，GenAI，我已經談到了 GenAI，我們的業務和加速，以及投入基礎設施提供者的所有資本投資，我認為，這只會加速企業 AI 的整體創新曲線。憑藉我們的技術堆疊、軟體組合和諮詢服務，我們是企業人工智慧領域的領導者，這應該能帶來一些好處。

Five, Red Hat, our bookings, our 3-months, our 6-months, our 9-month, our 12-month RPO shows accelerating growth coming off a 20% bookings overall. By the way, we actually had more opportunity to do even better than that 20%, and that should fuel an inflected growth.

第五，紅帽，我們的預訂量，我們的 3 個月、6 個月、9 個月、12 個月的 RPO 顯示出加速增長，總體預訂量增長了 20%。順便說一句，我們實際上有更多機會做得比那 20% 更好，這應該會推動彎曲增長。

Next, M&A. The point I would bring up on M&A, Arvind already talked about, it's embedded in our model. We've said that all along. But again, I think we've got to continue selling the investor narrative because that M&A drives a much higher organic growth engine because those synergies play to those acquisitions. That's how we pay for control premiums. That's how we get an accelerated top line growth. That's how we get an accelerated bottom line growth, and we get accretive value in free cash flow in two years. So our organic engine continues to grow.

接下來是併購。我想提出的關於併購的觀點，Arvind 已經談到了，它已經融入我們的模型中。我們一直都是這麼說的。但我再次認為，我們必須繼續向投資者推銷其觀點，因為併購能夠推動更高的有機成長引擎，因為這些協同效應會對這些收購產生作用。這就是我們支付控制權溢價的方式。這就是我們如何實現加速的營收成長。這就是我們如何獲得加速的底線成長，並在兩年內獲得自由現金流的增值。因此我們的有機引擎持續成長。

And then finally, TP modernization, Arvind wrapped up on it, let's just remind all the investors. TP gets monetized based on hardware installed MIP usage. I already said two quarters in, albeit early, we're 130% program to program on z17. Off of a z16 that was the most successful program in the history of IBM.

最後，關於 TP 現代化，Arvind 對此進行了總結，我們只是提醒所有投資者。TP 根據硬體安裝的 MIP 使用情況實現貨幣化。我已經說過，雖然還早，但兩個季度以來，我們在 z17 上的計劃進度已經達到 130%。z16 是 IBM 史上最成功的專案。

We're at 130%. So I do my math in calculation, higher capacity opportunity creates higher monetization opportunity creates higher price opportunity creates higher value creation opportunities. So I think when you look at it, we feel pretty good about delivering our model and software.

我們已經達到 130% 了。因此，我進行了數學運算，更高的容量機會創造了更高的貨幣化機會，創造了更高的價格機會，創造了更高的價值創造機會。所以我認為當你看到它時，我們對交付我們的模型和軟體感到非常滿意。

Erik Woodring, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的艾瑞克‧伍德林。

Just one quick clarification question there, Arvind. The growth rates you just provided in the response to that question for 2026 or into 2026. I just wanted to confirm those were all organic growth rates or whether they included M&A embedded in them?

只有一個快速澄清的問題，Arvind。您剛才在回答該問題時提供的是 2026 年或 2026 年的成長率。我只是想確認這些都是有機成長率還是包含了其中的併購？

And then my question, just taking a step back, Arvind is we've seen cloud providers experienced exceptional growth recently, particularly in infrastructure services and large-scale AI workloads. How does IBM view that trend? And do you see a similar opportunity for IBM Cloud to capture long-term infrastructure-driven demand?

然後我的問題是，退一步來說，Arvind，我們看到雲端供應商最近經歷了異常增長，特別是在基礎設施服務和大規模人工智慧工作負載方面。IBM 如何看待這一趨勢？您是否認為 IBM Cloud 有類似的機會來抓住長期基礎架構驅動的需求？

The growth rates that we talked about, we tend not to do much M&A or any in both our mainframe or TPS as well as in some of the other areas. The growth rates I mentioned, I would call it, are largely organic without having any significant M&A. But tuck-ins, small M&A are probably all included in there, Erik. But if we do anything substantial, it would help accelerate those growth rates. Let's just put it that way. I'll also let Jim comment on it after I talk about the cloud opportunity.

我們談到的成長率，我們傾向於不在我們的大型主機或 TPS 以及其他一些領域進行太多的併購或任何交易。我提到的成長率，我稱之為，基本上是有機的，沒有任何重大的併購。但是，埃里克，小型併購可能都包括在內。但如果我們採取任何實質的行動，它將有助於加快這些成長率。我們就這麼說吧。在我談論雲端計算機會之後，我也會讓吉姆對此發表評論。

We actually partner deeply with all the hyperscalers. A thing that we haven't talked about, but it's certainly no secret, for example, we are one of CoreWeave large clients. We also tend to use a lot of infrastructure at AWS, at Azure as well as at GCP. So as opposed to that it's an opportunity for us, Erik, it's the flip.

我們實際上與所有超大規模企業都建立了深入的合作關係。這是我們還沒有談論過的事情，但這肯定不是什麼秘密，例如，我們是 CoreWeave 的大客戶之一。我們也傾向於使用 AWS、Azure 以及 GCP 上的大量基礎架構。因此，與此相反，這對我們來說是一個機會，埃里克，這是一個轉變。

We got a huge opportunity to do both consulting projects as well as deploy our software on those infrastructures for our clients. As an example, if I take one of our very large health insurance clients, as they think through where they're going to deploy their AI models, they do not like deploying in a public instance but they are over defined getting a private instance in a cloud and deploying models there, deploying our software stack there and getting growth. So we tend to do that.

我們獲得了巨大的機會，既可以為客戶開展諮詢項目，也可以在這些基礎設施上部署我們的軟體。舉個例子，如果我以我們的一個非常大的健康保險客戶為例，當他們考慮在何處部署他們的人工智慧模型時，他們不喜歡在公共實例中部署，但他們過度定義了在雲端中獲取私有實例並在那裡部署模型，在那裡部署我們的軟體堆疊並獲得增長。所以我們傾向於這樣做。

We also tend to, in some cases, for example, with Grok, we are deploying Grok in people's own data centers. So that's a big opportunity that comes there. That will show up in revenue for us, both in Consulting as well as in Software because on top of the Grok infrastructure, we tend to put our software stacks in some instances. So it's less about us getting an opportunity in our cloud only, but much more that that's a growth vector that we are able to ride and that helps increase overall growth rate in both Software as well as in Consulting.

在某些情況下，我們也傾向於使用 Grok，例如，我們在人們自己的資料中心部署 Grok。所以這是一個巨大的機會。這將體現在我們的收入中，包括諮詢收入和軟體收入，因為在 Grok 基礎設施之上，我們傾向於在某些情況下放置我們的軟體堆疊。因此，我們不僅在雲端領域獲得了機會，更重要的是，這是我們能夠利用的成長向量，有助於提高軟體和諮詢領域的整體成長率。

And lastly, let's not forget, our biggest beneficiary of AI infrastructure is our mainframe and our Storage portfolio at this time. The latest generation mainframe, we will surprise you with some of the numbers. This quarter, a fully populated single system is capable of doing 450 billion inferences per day. As clients purchase that capability, that will be both a further accelerate to mainframe infrastructure growth, but it also comes with a software stack that helps them do all of that inferencing.

最後，我們不要忘記，目前人工智慧基礎設施的最大受益者是我們的大型主機和儲存產品組合。最新一代大型主機，一些數字會讓您感到驚訝。本季度，一個完全填充的單一系統每天能夠進行 4500 億次推理。當客戶購買該功能時，這不僅會進一步加速大型主機基礎設施的成長，而且還會附帶一個幫助他們完成所有推理的軟體堆疊。

If I look at our Storage portfolio, as many people have realized, you need a lot of storage to be able to do AI training, and we are going to be beneficiaries of that, inside our Storage portfolio as people deploy that. So I would much more say, we are actually the direct beneficiary of the hyperscale or growth of AI capability and capacity as enterprises use this capability and two, we will be a beneficiary in our mainframe and Storage stock in a direct way.

如果我看一下我們的儲存產品組合，正如許多人已經意識到的那樣，您需要大量的儲存空間才能進行人工智慧訓練，並且隨著人們部署我們的儲存產品組合，我們將從中受益。因此，我想說的是，隨著企業使用這種能力，我們實際上是超大規模或人工智慧能力和容量成長的直接受益者；其次，我們將直接受益於我們的大型主機和儲存庫存。

I think that, that would -- I hope, Erik addressed that part of the question.

我認為，那會——我希望，艾瑞克回答了問題的這一部分。

Erik, and just to the numbers piece. I mean, first of all, we are all focused here to execute a very important fourth quarter to finish a very successful 2025 for IBM. But we -- both Arvind and I are given some color about '26 about the confidence we have in our portfolio. But let me just take a step back and remind you on Software.

艾瑞克，只談數字部分。我的意思是，首先，我們都專注於完成非常重要的第四季度，為 IBM 非常成功的 2025 年畫下完美句點。但我們——Arvind 和我都對 26 年的表現充滿信心，並且對我們的投資組合充滿信心。但是讓我退一步來提醒你一下軟體。

Our Software model shared at Investor Day approaching double digits. That is all in. That has 2 to 3 points, give or take each year, maybe 1 point more and maybe 1 point less depending on our disciplined capital allocation around M&A of inorganic contribution and 6 to 7 to 8 points of organic. When you look at 2025, you go do the math, we're probably going to be approaching 6%-plus organic growth overall. And we're going to have somewhere 3 to 4 points this year because we took advantage of a very strategic opportunity with HashiCorp this year.

我們在投資者日分享的軟體模型接近兩位數。就這些了。每年大約有 2 到 3 個點，可能多 1 個點，也可能少 1 個點，這取決於我們圍繞無機貢獻的併購和 6 到 7 到 8 個點的有機貢獻進行的嚴格的資本配置。當你展望 2025 年時，你算一下，我們整體上可能會達到 6% 以上的有機成長率。我們今年將獲得 3 到 4 個積分，因為我們今年利用了與 HashiCorp 合作的策略機會。

But when you take a look at 2026, the TP growth monetization value that I talked about, the Red Hat accelerated growth profile that's on our revenue under contract, the annuity growth profile that is approaching or now going to be double digits at the exiting the year. Each of those are going to fuel that organic growth engine overall. So I think big picture, the model is pretty much what we kind of look at right now for 2026.

但當你展望 2026 年時，我談到的 TP 成長貨幣化價值、Red Hat 加速成長概況（即我們的合約收入）、年金成長概況（在年底時接近或將達到兩位數）。所有這些都將為整個有機成長引擎提供動力。所以我認為從總體上看，這個模型基本上就是我們現在所看到的 2026 年的情況。

Jim Schneider, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的吉姆·施耐德。

Arvind, I was wondering if you could maybe elaborate a little bit on how you're thinking about M&A from a target perspective. You've previously stated you're looking to accelerate growth and you're looking for things that fit strategically with the portfolio. But on the margin, anything -- in any way you're thinking about -- differently about either the portfolio or the product piece of it or the potential size of transaction you might like to undertake? And specifically, would you consider undertaking a somewhat larger, more transformative transaction maybe not quite as big as you did with Red Hat, but a sort of similar scale relative to your overall portfolio?

Arvind，我想知道您是否可以從目標角度詳細說明您對併購的看法。您之前曾表示，您正在尋求加速成長，並且正在尋找與投資組合具有策略契合的東西。但在邊際上，無論您以何種方式考慮，對投資組合、產品部分或您可能想要進行的交易的潛在規模有什麼不同嗎？具體來說，您是否會考慮進行一項規模更大、更具變革性的交易，也許規模不如您對 Red Hat 所做的交易那麼大，但相對於您的整體投資組合而言，其規模也差不多？

Yes. Jim, thanks for the question. Look, M&A is an extremely important part of our strategy. So I want to just perhaps reiterate because this has come up on prior calls as well. We look at it always in a multiyear window.

是的。吉姆，謝謝你的提問。你看，併購是我們策略中極為重要的一環。因此，我可能只想重申一下，因為這個問題在之前的電話會議中也出現過。我們總是從多年的角度來看它。

So we got to look at what is our excess cash flow over a few years. And once we have that window, that means we can sort of buy ahead, which means we can sort of lean in. Or if we don't find a good target, like we didn't, for example, I think, in 2023, then we actually spent much less than we could have. So that's just a backdrop to the amount of financial flexibility that we have, which if I remember at our Investor Day earlier this year, we laid out that we have somewhere in the mid-20s, perhaps a bit more flexibility over a three-year window. That's kind of a way to sort of look at it.

因此，我們必須看看幾年內我們的超額現金流是多少。一旦我們有了這個機會，就意味著我們可以提前購買，這意味著我們可以提前做好準備。或者如果我們沒有找到一個好的目標，例如我認為在 2023 年，那麼我們實際上的支出就會比我們本來可以支出的少得多。所以這只是我們所擁有的財務靈活性的一個背景，如果我沒記錯的話，在今年早些時候的投資者日上，我們曾表示，我們的財務靈活性在 20% 左右，在三年內可能會更大一些。這是一種看待它的方式。

Next, we are very focused on the areas that we have already explained as our strategy, very top level, we say Hybrid Cloud and artificial intelligence. That translates into our Hybrid portfolio, our Automation portfolio and our Data and AI portfolio. And you've seen us do acquisitions in there. For example, we bought an AI company that does B LLM, but it fit into our hybrid portfolio because it's a direct part of the Red Hat and OpenShift portfolios. We did HashiCorp, which fits directly into Automation. We did data stacks, which fits into data.

接下來，我們非常關注我們已經解釋過的策略領域，也就是最高層次的混合雲和人工智慧。這轉化為我們的混合投資組合、自動化投資組合以及數據和人工智慧投資組合。你們也看到我們在那裡進行收購。例如，我們收購了一家從事 B LLM 的人工智慧公司，但它適合我們的混合投資組合，因為它是 Red Hat 和 OpenShift 投資組合的直接組成部分。我們做了 HashiCorp，它直接適合自動化。我們做了資料堆棧，它適合資料。

When I look at the target list, there is, I think, a pretty rich list of opportunities that are out there in the private markets, in the PE world and the public markets across those opportunities that we think will -- some of them will be actionable. It's hard to predict upfront, which are and which are not. So I think that if I put it that way. And just to be clear, anything that is of size has to fit three criteria. It has to fit with the strategy we just laid out. There has to be synergy, AKA, the growth rate inside IBM will be above what it was as a stand-alone entity.

當我查看目標清單時，我認為私人市場、私募股權世界和公開市場中存在著相當豐富的機會，我們認為其中一些機會是可行的。很難預先預測哪些是、哪些不是。所以我認為如果我這樣說的話。需要明確的是，任何有尺寸的東西都必須符合三個標準。它必須符合我們剛剛制定的策略。必須有協同效應，也就是說，IBM 內部的成長率將高於其作為獨立實體時的成長率。

Some of that comes from our geography spread. We have a sales team in most countries in the world. Some of it comes by the ability to bundle more attractive offerings together. And it comes from faster deployment, for example, leveraging our consulting team or the rest of our sales team. All three will be able to add to more -- to a faster growth rate.

其中一些源自於我們的地理分佈。我們在世界上大多數國家都有銷售團隊。部分原因是能夠將更具吸引力的產品綁在一起。它來自於更快的部署，例如利用我們的諮詢團隊或我們銷售團隊的其他成員。這三者都將能夠進一步加快成長速度。

Third, if it is of size, then we are very disciplined also that we like it to become accretive to cash by the end of the second year. So those are the criteria, but as you have seen, we have found plenty in the last few years that do fit that whole criteria. So I hope that, that gives you a sense.

第三，如果規模夠大，那麼我們也會非常自律，希望它在第二年年底前增值成為現金。這些就是標準，但正如您所見，我們在過去幾年中發現了許多符合整個標準的情況。所以我希望這能給你一些啟發。

Now your question on larger. I'll just use that word larger. We will never rule anything out, but it has to meet all the criteria that we just laid out. It is not for size alone. Red Hat allowed us to enter the new space, helped accelerate IBM's overall growth rate. By the way, both in Software and in Consulting. So that was the sort of the synergy piece that was there, and you -- many people forget, Red Hat also had a very attractive free cash flow profile that we've been able to leverage since the acquisition.

現在你的問題更大了。我只會使用更大這個詞。我們永遠不會排除任何可能性，但它必須滿足我們剛剛列出的所有標準。這不僅僅是因為尺寸。Red Hat 讓我們進入了新的領域，幫助加速了 IBM 的整體成長速度。順便說一句，無論是在軟體領域還是在諮詢領域。這就是協同效應的一部分，而且很多人忘記了，紅帽還擁有非常有吸引力的自由現金流狀況，自收購以來我們一直能夠利用這一點。

Brian Essex, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的布萊恩艾塞克斯。

Arvind, maybe as a follow-up as to part of Erik's question, and I appreciate your hybrid exposure here. But could you generalize what you're seeing with regard to mix as enterprises focus on AI readiness? Are cloud-native ISV-based agentic applications may be targeted at task and point solution automation, are those low-hanging fruit to prove ROI before pursuing self-hosted projects?

Arvind，也許這是對 Erik 部分問題的後續回答，我很欣賞你在這裡對混合的了解。但是，當企業專注於人工智慧準備時，您能否概括一下您所看到的有關混合的情況？基於雲端原生 ISV 的代理應用程式是否可能針對任務和點解決方案自動化，這些是否是在進行自託管專案之前證明投資回報率的唾手可得的成果？

And then maybe within the IT budgets, where is the spending coming from? What's at risk of getting trimmed as companies focused on adopting AI-based technology?

那麼，在 IT 預算中，支出來自哪裡？隨著公司專注於採用基於人工智慧的技術，哪些領域面臨被削減的風險？

So Brian, let me address the first part of your question with a bit of depth. I actually think that these are an [an] are people going to leverage ISV, Otherwise, I'll call it, SaaS applications for getting exposure to AI and agents, either as part of those entities or as added value on to them. And there are hundreds, if not thousands, of little boutique companies that provide some of those agents that are out there. I think they will absolutely do that. They'll kick the tires on it, they'll get some value.

那麼布萊恩，讓我深入回答你問題的第一部分。我實際上認為這些是人們將利用 ISV（否則，我稱之為 SaaS 應用程式）來接觸 AI 和代理，無論是作為這些實體的一部分還是作為它們的附加價值。並且有數百家（甚至數千家）小型精品公司提供一些現有的代理服務。我認為他們絕對會這麼做。他們會對其進行測試，並會得到一些價值。

But at the end of the day, to get real value from AI, people have to be able to integrate their existing applications. How do they tie what is happening in their payroll system and HR system, to perhaps something that is happening in the CRM system, to perhaps something that is happening in their ERP system. As people begin to want to build much more profound agents, that is where a lot of the action that we see is happening. As people try to build those agents out, then they get deeply concerned about what is that data, where is the data going and they're going to deploy those either in their own data centers or in a private instance.

但最終，為了從人工智慧中獲得真正的價值，人們必須能夠整合他們現有的應用程式。他們如何將薪資系統和人力資源系統中發生的事情與 CRM 系統中發生的事情以及 ERP 系統中發生的事情連結起來。當人們開始想要建立更深層的代理時，我們看到很多行動正在發生。當人們嘗試建立這些代理程式時，他們會深切關注資料是什麼、資料要去哪裡，以及他們將在自己的資料中心或私有實例中部署這些資料。

Note, a private instance of the cloud is quite protected and people do deploy a lot of critical applications that are there. But if I think about our clients in the regulated industries, banking and insurance still is very much a data center as well as a cloud picture. If I look at health care, health care data tends not to go out very much from their own data centers. If I look at telecom, most people build their own backbones and their data and applications reside there, but certain other things like marketing may well reside in the public cloud.

請注意，雲端的私有實例受到很好的保護，人們確實在那裡部署了許多關鍵應用程式。但如果我考慮一下受監管行業的客戶，銀行和保險仍然很大程度上是一個資料中心和雲端運算圖景。如果我看一下醫療保健，醫療保健數據往往不會從他們自己的資料中心流出太多。如果我看一下電信，大多數人都會建立自己的主幹網路並將資料和應用程式駐留在其中，但某些其他事物（例如行銷）很可能駐留在公有雲中。

So as we begin to look upon all that, I believe that we are at the very big ring. I would actually characterize this, Brian, that if I was to use the baseball analogy, we're still in the first innings of enterprise AI rollout. And I expect that we will be seeing and, we will see more SaaS AI usage. We will see more public cloud AI usage and we will begin to see a lot more private AI usage as people begin to get into more critical applications and agents.

因此，當我們開始審視這一切時，我相信我們正處於一個非常大的圓環中。布萊恩，我實際上會這樣描述，如果我使用棒球類比，我們仍然處於企業人工智慧推出的第一局。我希望我們會看到更多 SaaS AI 的使用。我們將看到更多的公有雲 AI 使用，隨著人們開始使用更關鍵的應用程式和代理，我們將開始看到更多的私人 AI 使用。

On the IT budgets. Look, IT budgets have been growing ahead of GDP. That's simply an observation. I think this began four or five years ago, but IT budgets are growing typically 2 to 3 points ahead of GDP growth. You combine that then with inflation because GDP after all, is real, not nominal. I see IT budgets stay healthy. So a lot of the growth comes from the fact that the IT budgets are growing as opposed to a cost or something else.

關於 IT 預算。瞧，IT 預算的成長速度已經超過了 GDP 的成長速度。這只是一個觀察。我認為這種情況始於四、五年前，但 IT 預算的成長速度通常比 GDP 成長速度高出 2 到 3 個百分點。然後將其與通貨膨脹結合起來，因為 GDP 畢竟是真實的，而不是名義的。我看到 IT 預算保持健康。因此，很大一部分成長來自於 IT 預算的成長，而不是成本或其他因素的成長。

That said, I think people are getting very, very effective at trying to run and maintain with lower costs and putting more money towards newer projects. 5, 10 years ago, that ratio used to be 70/30, 70% are running what is, 30 %on new. I think that is shifting more towards a 60/40 spread, and where it will go, is where we'll get the benefit. That is why our Automation portfolio and our Hybrid portfolio get a lot more growth because people are using that. So it's sort of substituting for labor and in some cases, for services, by letting those capabilities move into software.

話雖如此，我認為人們在嘗試以更低的成本運行和維護並將更多資金投入新項目方面變得非常有效。 5 到 10 年前，這個比例是 70/30，即 70% 運行現有項目，30% 用於新項目。我認為這正朝著 60/40 的價差轉變，而價差的走向就是我們獲得利益的地方。這就是為什麼我們的自動化產品組合和混合產品組合能夠獲得更多成長，因為人們正在使用它們。因此，透過將這些功能轉移到軟體中，它可以取代勞動力，在某些情況下，還可以替代服務。

Mark Newman, Bernstein.

馬克紐曼，伯恩斯坦。

Very good to see the growing AI book of business, and thanks for those comments just now, Arvind. I don't think you've given any specific breakdown yet on the breakdown between Software and Consulting of the AI book of business. Is there any clarity on that? I think it used to be 80/20. Just want to clarify if there's any clarity you've given on that today.

很高興看到人工智慧商業書籍的不斷增長，感謝剛才的評論，Arvind。我認為您還沒有對人工智慧業務的軟體和諮詢進行任何具體的細分。對此有任何明確的說法嗎？我認為以前是 80/20。只是想澄清一下您今天是否對此做出了任何澄清。

And then a follow-up on Consulting. I think there's two quarters in a row now where we're seeing the book-to-bill ratio a touch below 1. I know you pointed in the earnings to a book-to-bill ratio greater than 1 if you're looking at the trailing 12 months, but I would just like to understand more on a shorter-term basis last six months, it seems like the book-to-bill ratio is below 1.

然後是諮詢方面的後續工作。我認為，我們已經連續兩季看到訂單出貨比略低於 1。我知道您在收益中指出，如果查看過去 12 個月的數據，訂單出貨比會大於 1，但我只是想了解更多短期情況，過去六個月，訂單出貨比似乎低於 1。

And if you could explain kind of why -- maybe why that's the case, why we shouldn't be worried, especially considering, I think, around 30% of signings, you mentioned are AI, which I believe are longer durations. So just a little bit of clarity around Consulting and how AI plays into the to the book to bill ratio and that recent number being below 1, would be appreciated.

如果你能解釋為什麼——也許為什麼會這樣，為什麼我們不應該擔心，特別是考慮到，我認為，你提到的大約 30% 的簽約都是人工智慧的，我相信持續時間更長。因此，如果能稍微澄清一下諮詢方面的情況以及人工智慧如何影響訂單出貨比，以及最近的數字低於 1，我們將非常感激。

Okay. Mark, this is Jim. I'll take both of those. Let's start with the second one first, and then I'll come back to your clarification question on GenAI, in particular, around the Software portfolio overall. And I want to dive a little bit deeper than that.

好的。馬克，這是吉姆。我會接受這兩個。我們先從第二個問題開始，然後我會回到你關於 GenAI 的澄清問題，特別是圍繞軟體產品組合的整體問題。我想對此進行更深入的探討。

But when we take a look at Consulting, let's dial back 90 days ago. I think we surprised many, just compared to what many other consulting companies have been talking about publicly. We talked about green shoots that we saw entering second half. But I think at that time, we were prudently cautious about how we were going to monitor client buying behaviors, and we didn't expect growth in the second half, although we saw many green shoots overall.

但當我們審視諮詢業時，讓我們回顧一下 90 天前。我認為，與許多其他顧問公司公開談論的情況相比，我們讓很多人感到驚訝。我們討論了進入下半年後我們看到的復甦跡象。但我認為，當時我們對如何監控客戶購買行為持謹慎態度，儘管我們總體上看到了許多復甦跡象，但我們並不期望下半年會成長。

Now we posted, I think, a marked inflection point of Consulting back to growth, up 2%. And it's been driven by what we're seeing as continued opportunity for growth as clients accelerate investment in AI-driven transformation, what we've been talking about on many of these questions here. Why? Companies are looking to unlock efficiency, business model innovation and growth, growth, growth, and AI is accelerating overall.

現在，我認為，我們發布了諮詢業務恢復成長的明顯拐點，成長了 2%。這是由我們看到的持續成長機會所推動的，因為客戶加快了對人工智慧驅動轉型的投資，我們在這裡討論過許多這樣的問題。為什麼？企業正在尋求釋放效率、商業模式創新和成長、成長、成長，而人工智慧正在整體加速發展。

When we take a look at right now, fourth quarter, and more importantly, early parts of '26, we again see momentum around those key metrics, our backlog position, our GenAI book, strategic partnerships, and around productivity. Backlog, $31 billion, healthy growing 4% right now. Our best ever erosion, and I think multiple years. What does that see? Clients' commitment to IBM Consulting, the quality of our delivery and the value of our differentiated offerings are doing extremely well.

當我們回顧現在，第四季度，更重要的是，26 年初，我們再次看到了這些關鍵指標、積壓訂單情況、GenAI 帳簿、戰略合作夥伴關係以及生產力方面的勢頭。積壓訂單 310 億美元，目前健康成長 4%。這是我們有史以來最好的侵蝕，我想這是好幾年來最好的一次。那看到了什麼？客戶對 IBM 諮詢服務的承諾、我們交付的品質以及我們差異化產品的價值都非常出色。

Now to your point about signings. Signings were down 5%. By the way, signings has been down five of the last six quarters, something like that. But as I've said many times before, why don't I start with backlog. That, to me, is the most critical component that's closest to the outcome measure. The outcome measure is revenue. Revenue growth, revenue growth as Arvind always likes to say in this conference room with our operating team.

現在談談您關於簽約的觀點。簽約數量下降了5%。順便說一句，過去六個季度簽約數量有五個季度下降，類似這樣的情況。但正如我之前多次說過的，我為什麼不從積壓工作開始呢？對我來說，這是最關鍵、最接近結果衡量的因素。結果衡量標準是收入。收入成長，收入成長，正如 Arvind 總是喜歡在會議室裡與我們的營運團隊所說的那樣。

Indicators are backlog, indicators are signings. But signings are not all equal. And those signings numbers have been driven down. I think we posted down 5% based on lower large deal renewal volume. By the way, I would argue that's a best no revenue realization, and probably worst dilutive revenue because renewals typically drive more price and more productivity.

指標就是積壓，指標就是簽約。但簽約並不都是平等的。而簽約人數已經下降。我認為，由於大額交易續約量減少，我們的銷售額下降了 5%。順便說一句，我認為這是最好的無收入實現，而且可能是最糟糕的稀釋收入，因為續約通常會帶來更高的價格和更高的生產力。

But underneath it, what are we seeing? We're seeing a tremendous improvement in the quality of our signings. Our net new business penetration, again, another quarter in a row, up double digits year to year on a penetration. Over 300 new clients year to date fueling our backlog. Our backlog realization is up over 4 points year over year. And when we take a look at our backlog runout, it's pretty healthy growing at market level growth rates here over the next 3, 6, 9, 12 months.

但在其之下，我們看到了什麼？我們看到簽約品質有了巨大的提升。我們的淨新業務滲透率連續一個季度年增兩位數。今年迄今已有超過 300 位新客戶，進一步豐富了我們的訂單。我們的積壓訂單實現量年增了 4 個百分點。當我們查看積壓訂單情況時，我們會發現未來 3、6、9、12 個月內，積壓訂單的市場水準成長率相當健康。

A lot of work still to do to sell and bill within quarter, but a lot of good indicators. And that GenAI, to your point, over 22% of our backlog, 30% of our signings, 12% of our revenue, that's what's inflecting the growth overall. So we feel pretty good. And that's why we called the mark inflection, and we said we're going to grow consulting here in the fourth quarter, and we feel pretty good about getting back to market growth levels in 2026.

在本季度內，仍有很多工作要做，但有許多好的指標。正如您所說，GenAI 佔據了我們 22% 以上的積壓訂單、30% 的簽約量和 12% 的收入，這些是影響整體成長的因素。所以我們感覺很好。這就是我們稱之為拐點的原因，我們表示我們將在第四季度擴大諮詢業務，並且我們對 2026 年恢復市場成長水準感到非常樂觀。

Now GenAI, over $9.5 billion book of business, Arvind already talked about over $7.5 billion in Consulting, well over $1.5 billion, almost approaching $2 billion in Software. We're what, seven, eight quarters in here. That number might vary quarter by quarter as far as the composition. But we're still pretty damn close to that 20/80 overall.

現在 GenAI 的業務額已超過 95 億美元，Arvind 已經談到諮詢業務的規模超過 75 億美元，軟體業務的規模遠超 15 億美元，幾乎接近 20 億美元。我們在這裡待了七、八個季度。就構成而言，該數字可能每季都會有所不同。但總體而言，我們仍然非常接近 20/80。

But the underpinnings behind that of the Software book in the generation. You see that play out and how it's accelerating Automation growth, but also Red Hat. I know there's been a lot of questions around Red Hat. Let me just spend a minute just to close the call on Red Hat.

但背後的基礎在於這一代的軟體書籍。您看到了這一切的進展，以及它如何加速自動化的成長，同時也加速了紅帽的成長。我知道大家對紅帽有很多疑問。請容許我花一點時間來結束關於紅帽的討論。

Red Hat, we delivered 12% growth. We were down a couple of points quarter to quarter. And year to date, we're at 13% low teens, right? Let me break down some of the performance. One from a physician of strength and Arvind talked about a few points. OpenShift, up nearly 40% bookings. Our ARR, $1.8 billion, up mid-30s year over year, accelerating profile. Virtualization, now we've closed total contract value of bookings over $400 million. We got a $700 million pipeline over the next five-plus quarters. And Ansible, 20% bookings in the quarter, accelerating the high teens.

紅帽，我們實現了 12% 的成長。我們每季的得分都下降了幾個百分點。今年到目前為止，我們的青少年入學率是 13%，對嗎？讓我來分析一下其中的一些表現。一位實力雄厚的醫生和 Arvind 談到了幾點。OpenShift，預訂量成長近40%。我們的 ARR 為 18 億美元，年成長 30% 左右，成長速度加快。虛擬化，現在我們已經完成的訂單合約總價值超過 4 億美元。在接下來的五個多季度裡，我們獲得了 7 億美元的資金。Ansible 本季的預訂量增加了 20%，加速了十幾個百分點。

So what happened on the sequential decline. One, as we knew we were facing tougher comparison on the consumption-based services. That impacted us by about 1 point. And RHEL about 50% of our portfolio, we've been talking about -- we've been well growing RHEL abnormally in the mid-teens. We reverted back to our model, growing 6% and at about 1 point.

那麼連續下降的情況是怎麼樣的呢？首先，我們知道我們在基於消費的服務方面面臨更嚴格的比較。這對我們的影響大約是 1 個百分點。我們一直在談論的是 RHEL 占我們產品組合的 50% 左右——RHEL 的成長速度異常快，達到了十幾歲的水平。我們恢復了我們的模型，成長 6%，約 1 個百分點。

Now taking a step back, Red Hat model is mid-teens. And when you look at it, our 80% subs business, we got to grow low end of that high teens. The consumption base, we got to grow high-single digit. When you look at our year to date, and Arvind talked about our bookings year to date, we're well positioned on that subscription-based business growing high teens already on bookings. And when you look at that 6-, 9-, 12-month revenue under contract, we're accelerating that growth as we go into '26. That gives us confidence in that acceleration comment that Arvind talked about and I talked about as qualitative statements about confidence in '26.

現在退後一步來看，Red Hat 模型已經處於十幾歲的階段。看看我們 80% 的訂閱業務，我們必須實現低端到高端的成長。消費基數必須達到高個位數成長。當您回顧我們今年迄今為止的業績時，Arvind 談到了我們今年迄今為止的預訂情況，您會發現我們在基於訂閱的業務方面處於有利地位，預訂量已大幅增長。當你查看合約規定的 6 個月、9 個月和 12 個月的收入時，我們會發現，隨著進入 26 年，我們的成長速度正在加快。這讓我們對 Arvind 和我談到的關於 26 年信心的定性陳述中的加速評論充滿信心。

And when you look at fourth quarter, let's put this in perspective. We're going to accelerate Red Hat growth in '25. It's going to be a nice acceleration on the subs. And we got about a 2-point headwind on consumption-based services. We knew about that because last year, we grew consumption-based services high teens. And when you look at fourth quarter, we're going to wrap on that. We've known about that all year long. So when we look at fourth quarter, double-digit solid double-digit growth in Red Hat, low teen growth for the year, nice composition of where that acceleration is. But the most important thing, we're well positioned for 2026.

當你回顧第四季時，讓我們來客觀看待這一點。我們將在 25 年加速 Red Hat 的成長。這對於潛艇來說將是一個很好的加速。我們在消費型服務方面遇到了大約 2 個百分點的阻力。我們之所以知道這一點，是因為去年我們的消費型服務實現了大幅成長。當你回顧第四季時，我們將會結束這一階段。我們一整年都知道這件事。因此，當我們看第四季度時，紅帽實現了兩位數的穩定成長，全年成長率處於較低的青少年水平，加速度的組成很好。但最重要的是，我們已經為 2026 年做好了準備。

So with that, I'll turn it back over to Arvind to close out the call.

因此，我將把電話轉回給 Arvind 來結束本次通話。

Thanks, Jim. Look, to close out, we are pleased with our performance this quarter. All of our segments accelerated sequentially. Our portfolio strength, business model, and relentless focus on productivity, reinforce our confidence in the trajectory I look forward to sharing our progress as we close out the year.

謝謝，吉姆。總而言之，我們對本季的表現感到滿意。我們的所有部門都連續加速發展。我們的投資組合實力、商業模式以及對生產力的不懈關注增強了我們對發展軌蹟的信心，我期待在年底分享我們的進展。

Thank you, Arvind. Operator, let me turn it back to you to close out the call.

謝謝你，Arvind。接線員，請允許我將其轉回給您以結束通話。

Thank you for participating on today's call. The conference has now ended. You may disconnect at this time.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。會議現已結束。您現在可以斷開連線。