International Business Machines Corp (IBM) 2025 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome, and thank you for standing by. (Operator Instructions) Today's conference is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time.

歡迎，感謝您的耐心等待。（操作說明）今天的會議正在錄音。如果您有任何異議，可以立即斷開連接。

Now I will turn the meeting over to Olympia McNerney, IBM's Global Head of Investor Relations. Olympia, you may begin.

現在我將把會議交給 IBM 全球投資者關係主管奧林匹亞·麥克納尼。奧林匹亞，你可以開始了。

Thank you. I'd like to welcome you to IBM's fourth-quarter 2025 earnings presentation. I'm Olympia McNerney, and I'm here today with Arvind Krishna, IBM's Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer; and Jim Kavanaugh, IBM's Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We'll post today's prepared remarks with a replay of today's webcast on the IBM investor website within a couple of hours. The earnings presentation is already available.

謝謝。歡迎各位參加 IBM 2025 年第四季財報發表會。我是奧林匹亞·麥克納尼，今天我與 IBM 董事長、總裁兼首席執行官阿文德·克里希納，以及 IBM 高級副總裁兼首席財務官吉姆·卡瓦諾一起在這裡。我們將在幾個小時內將今天的準備好的發言稿以及今天網路直播的回放發佈在 IBM 投資者網站上。業績報告已發布。

To provide additional information to our investors, our presentation includes certain non-GAAP measures. For example, all of our references to revenue and signings growth are at constant currency. We provided reconciliation charts for these and other non-GAAP financial measures at the end of our presentation, which is posted to our investor website.

為了向投資者提供更多信息，我們的簡報包含一些非GAAP指標。例如，我們所有關於營收和簽約量成長的參考資料均以固定匯率計算。我們在簡報的結尾提供了這些以及其他非GAAP財務指標的調節表，該簡報已發佈在我們的投資者網站上。

Finally, some comments made in this presentation may be considered forward-looking under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements involve factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially. Additional information about these factors is included in the company's SEC filings.

最後，根據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》，本次演講中的一些評論可能被視為前瞻性評論。這些聲明涉及一些因素，可能導致我們的實際結果與預期有重大差異。有關這些因素的更多信息，請參閱公司提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件。

So with that, I'll turn the call over to Arvind.

那麼，接下來我將把電話交給阿文德。

Thank you for joining us today. Let me start by reflecting on our strong performance in 2025 and the execution of our Investor Day model, then get into more detail on the quarter. We are excited about the progress we made in 2025, delivering 6% revenue growth, our highest level of revenue growth in many years and $14.7 billion of free cash flow, our highest level of cash generation in over a decade.

感謝您今天蒞臨。首先，我想回顧一下我們在 2025 年的出色表現以及我們投資者日模式的執行情況，然後再詳細介紹一下本季的情況。我們對 2025 年的進展感到非常興奮，實現了 6% 的收入成長，這是我們多年來最高的收入成長水準；同時，自由現金流達到 147 億美元，這是我們十多年來最高的現金產生水準。

As we laid out at our Investor Day in February 2025, we are executing on our strategy to advance IBM as a software-led hybrid cloud and AI platform company. We entered 2025 intently focused on investing in innovation and productivity initiatives to accelerate our shift towards durable, higher-growth end markets in Software with expanding margins and strong free cash flow.

正如我們在 2025 年 2 月的投資者日上所闡述的那樣，我們正在執行我們的策略，以推動 IBM 成為一家以軟體為主導的混合雲和人工智慧平台公司。進入 2025 年，我們集中精力投資於創新和生產力提升計劃，以加速向軟體領域持久、高成長的終端市場轉型，從而擴大利潤率並實現強勁的自由現金流。

Today, Software represents approximately 45% of our business, up from about 25% in 2018. Software grew 9%, our highest annual growth rate in history, with three of our four Software subsegments delivering double-digit growth rates. Innovation value can also be seen in our IBM Z performance, up 48% this year, achieving the highest annual revenue for Z in about 20 years.

如今，軟體業務約占我們業務的 45%，高於 2018 年的約 25%。軟體業務成長了 9%，創歷史最高年度成長率，其中四個軟體子業務板塊中有三個實現了兩位數的成長率。創新價值也可以從我們的 IBM Z 產品表現看出，今年成長了 48%，實現了 Z 產品近 20 年來最高的年度收入。

I'm proud of our achievements in 2025 as we exceeded all of our target metrics for revenue growth, profitability, and free cash flow that we laid out at our Investor Day. Our flywheel for growth is underpinned by client trust, flexible and open platforms, sustained innovation, deep domain expertise, and a broad ecosystem, and that's exactly what played out for the year.

我為我們在 2025 年取得的成就感到自豪，因為我們超額完成了在投資者日上製定的所有收入成長、獲利能力和自由現金流目標指標。我們成長的飛輪以客戶信任、靈活開放的平台、持續創新、深厚的領域專業知識和廣泛的生態系統為基礎，而這正是我們今年所取得的成就。

Let me now touch on the macro. We continue to operate in a dynamic environment, but one where client demand remains resilient in the categories that matter most to IBM. Enterprises are prioritizing technology investments that drive productivity, resilience and flexibility, particularly in hybrid cloud, AI, and mission-critical infrastructure. These technologies are no longer viewed as incremental tools, but as platforms that fundamentally change how businesses scale, compete and operate.

現在讓我來談談宏觀層面。我們繼續在充滿活力的環境中運營，但客戶對 IBM 最重視的類別的需求仍然保持強勁。企業正在優先考慮能夠提高生產力、韌性和靈活性的技術投資，尤其是在混合雲、人工智慧和關鍵任務基礎設施方面。這些技術不再被視為漸進式工具，而是從根本上改變企業規模、競爭和營運方式的平台。

As clients modernize core systems, redesign workflows and seek to extract more value from growing volumes of data, expectations for integration, security and performance continue to rise. These trends are structural, and they align closely with IBM's strategy and strengths.

隨著客戶對核心系統進行現代化改造、重新設計工作流程並尋求從不斷增長的資料量中挖掘更多價值，他們對整合、安全性和效能的期望也在不斷提高。這些趨勢是結構性的，與 IBM 的策略和優勢密切相關。

Now turning to our execution in the fourth quarter. We delivered total revenue growth of 9%, our highest level in over three years. Software growth accelerated to 11% in the fourth quarter, driven by the strength of our diversified portfolio. Both data and automation are gaining strong momentum with clients, growing 19% and 14%, respectively, in the quarter.

現在來看我們在第四季的執行情況。我們實現了9%的總收入成長，這是三年多來的最高水準。第四季軟體業務成長加速至 11%，這得益於我們多元化產品組合的強勁表現。數據和自動化在客戶中都獲得了強勁的成長勢頭，本季分別成長了 19% 和 14%。

As AI adoption accelerates, enterprise clients are increasingly focused on how to keep operations running smoothly in a more complex and hybrid environment, fueled by a surge of new applications. Our end-to-end portfolio of leading automation and data solutions help clients manage and optimize operations, automate infrastructure and workflows, build resiliency, secure and govern data, and drive cost efficiency.

隨著人工智慧的普及加速，企業客戶越來越關注如何在更複雜和混合的環境中保持營運順暢，而這種環境又受到大量新應用的推動。我們全面的領先自動化和資料解決方案組合可協助客戶管理和優化營運、自動化基礎架構和工作流程、建立彈性、保護和管理資料以及提高成本效益。

Consulting continued to grow, up 1%, reflecting increased demand for AI services as clients need help designing, deploying, and governing AI at scale. And infrastructure delivered another robust quarter, growing 17%, driven by strength in z17, which has been outpacing z16 performance. A key contributor to this momentum is the innovation value we are delivering with z17 processing 50% more AI inferencing operations per day than z16 and bringing real-time inferencing capabilities inside IBM Z.

諮詢業務持續成長，增幅達 1%，反映出客戶對人工智慧服務的需求不斷增長，他們需要協助來大規模設計、部署和管理人工智慧。基礎設施業務又迎來了一個強勁的季度，成長了 17%，這主要得益於 z17 的強勁表​​現，其增速超過了 z16 的表現。推動這一勢頭的關鍵因素是我們透過 z17 提供的創新價值，它每天處理的 AI 推理操作比 z16 多 50%，並將即時推理功能引入 IBM Z。

The breadth of our AI offerings is another key differentiator, combining an innovative technology stack with Consulting at scale and our client zero journey. Our cumulative Gen AI book of business now stands at over $12.5 billion, of which Software is more than $2 billion and Consulting is more than $10.5 billion, with both seeing the largest quarterly increase to date.

我們人工智慧產品的廣度是另一個關鍵差異化優勢，它將創新的技術堆疊與大規模諮詢和我們的客戶零基礎體驗結合。目前，我們的 Gen AI 業務累計規模已超過 125 億美元，其中軟體業務超過 20 億美元，諮詢業務超過 105 億美元，這兩項業務均實現了迄今為止最大的季度增長。

As we look at the evolution of AI, our opportunity is to make it easy for clients to build AI that is specific to their data, their processes and their competitive needs, including the effective use of smaller, more efficient models where they make sense. That is why IBM's approach spans consulting, watsonx, our Agentic platform orchestrate and Red Hat AI.

當我們審視人工智慧的發展歷程時，我們的機會在於讓客戶能夠輕鬆建立符合自身資料、流程和競爭需求的人工智慧，包括在適當的情況下有效利用更小、更有效率的模型。這就是為什麼 IBM 的方法涵蓋諮詢、WatsonX、我們的 Agentic 平台 Orchestrate 和 Red Hat AI。

Our announced acquisition of Confluent is another pillar in this strategy, helping unify our hybrid cloud and automation solutions through a smart data platform. Confluent has the most capable technology to unlock the real-time value of data across applications, clouds, APIs and as AI agents enter the enterprise, they will need access to that data in real time. Confluent is a great way to deliver that in a controlled, secured, and governed manner.

我們宣布收購 Confluent 是該策略的另一個支柱，有助於透過智慧數據平台統一我們的混合雲端和自動化解決方案。Confluent 擁有最強大的技術，可以釋放跨應用程式、雲端、API 的資料的即時價值，隨著 AI 代理進入企業，它們將需要即時存取這些資料。Confluent 是以可控、安全、規範的方式實現這一目標的絕佳途徑。

Our hybrid approach to models also enables clients to use the best option for each use case, IBM's granite models, third-party models or open models from Hugging Face, Meta, and Mistral. In addition to being a demand driver, AI is also a powerful productivity driver for IBM, contributing to our strong financial performance.

我們採用的混合模型方法也使客戶能夠針對每個用例使用最佳選項，例如 IBM 的 Granite 模型、第三方模型或來自 Hugging Face、Meta 和 Mistral 的開放模型。除了推動市場需求外，人工智慧也是 IBM 強大的生產力驅動力，為我們強勁的財務表現做出了貢獻。

In 2023, we set out on a goal to achieve $2 billion of productivity savings exiting 2024. And today, we are well ahead of that, exiting 2025 with $4.5 billion of annual run rate savings. We have been accelerating our productivity initiatives to enable investment in innovation and highly strategic acquisitions like HashiCorp and Confluent while continuing to deliver strong margin expansion and free cash flow growth.

2023年，我們訂定了一個目標，在2024年底實現20億美元的生產力節約。而如今，我們遠遠領先於此目標，到 2025 年底，我們每年將節省 45 億美元。我們一直在加快提高生產力的舉措，以便投資於創新和極具戰略意義的收購，例如 HashiCorp 和 Confluent，同時繼續實現強勁的利潤率成長和自由現金流成長。

HashiCorp continues to accelerate within IBM, benefiting from our go-to-market distribution and joint product innovation. We see a similar opportunity with the announced acquisition of Confluent, leveraging IBM's global go-to-market reach to accelerate growth and disciplined G&A structure.

HashiCorp 在 IBM 內部持續加速發展，受惠於我們的市場推廣通路和聯合產品創新。我們看到，IBM 宣布收購 Confluent 也帶來了類似的機遇，可以利用 IBM 的全球市場覆蓋範圍來加速成長，並利用其嚴謹的 G&A 結構。

Accelerating organic innovation is a core focus for IBM. Project Bob is IBM's next-generation AI-based software development system designed to transform developer productivity. Bob introduces intelligent orchestration between industry-leading frontier models such as Anthropic, Claude, and Mistral, small language models, including IBM Granite and custom models, all optimized for cost and performance.

加速內部創新是 IBM 的核心重點。Project Bob 是 IBM 的下一代基於人工智慧的軟體開發系統，旨在提高開發人員的生產力。Bob 引入了業界領先的前沿模型（如 Anthropic、Claude 和 Mistral）、小型語言模型（包括 IBM Granite）和自訂模型之間的智慧編排，所有這些都針對成本和效能進行了最佳化。

We have more than 20,000 IBMers that are using Project Bob, reporting productivity gains averaging 45%, a powerful client zero use case. We are also advancing innovation through deep M&A product synergies. For example, we recently developed Hashi InfraGraph, a real-time graph of infrastructure and application configuration. By fusing InfraGraph's insights with IBM automation products like Concert, we unlock true root cause analysis and proactive prevention for clients.

我們有超過 20,000 名 IBM 員工正在使用 Project Bob，據報告，生產力平均提高了 45%，這是一個強大的客戶端零用例。我們也透過深度併購產品綜效來推動創新。例如，我們最近開發了 Hashi InfraGraph，這是一個基礎設施和應用程式配置的即時圖。透過將 InfraGraph 的洞察力與 IBM 的自動化產品（如 Concert）結合，我們為客戶解鎖了真正的根本原因分析和主動預防。

All this leads to real tangible value for our clients. Companies like Morgan Stanley and FedEx are leveraging our technology solutions and infusing our GenAI products into core workflows. And Mastercard is leveraging our technology solutions, including data management platforms, software platforms, and Gen AI products and solutions.

這一切都為我們的客戶帶來了切實可見的價值。摩根士丹利和聯邦快遞等公司正在利用我們的技術解決方案，並將我們的 GenAI 產品融入核心工作流程。萬事達卡正在利用我們的技術解決方案，包括資料管理平台、軟體平台以及 Gen AI 產品和解決方案。

In infrastructure, clients such as CVS are turning to z17's AI capabilities for enhanced management of mainframe application workloads and increased resiliency. We also announced new or deepened strategic partnerships through the year with AMD, Anthropic, AWS, Microsoft, OpenAI, and Oracle.

在基礎架構方面，像 CVS 這樣的客戶正在利用 z17 的 AI 功能來增強對大型主機應用程式工作負載的管理並提高彈性。今年我們也宣布與 AMD、Anthropic、AWS、微軟、OpenAI 和 Oracle 建立了新的或深化的策略合作夥伴關係。

Recently, we announced a partnership between Red Hat and NVIDIA that aligns our hybrid AI solutions and NVIDIA's AI stack. This collaboration allows enterprises to deploy AI-accelerated applications across any environment from the data center to the public cloud using a unified automated infrastructure. It represents a significant step forward in making high-performance AI more accessible and scalable for the hybrid enterprise.

最近，我們宣布了紅帽與英偉達之間的合作關係，將我們的混合人工智慧解決方案與英偉達的人工智慧技術堆疊相結合。此次合作使企業能夠利用統一的自動化基礎設施，在從資料中心到公有雲的任何環境中部署 AI 加速的應用程式。這標誌著在使高效能人工智慧更容易被混合型企業所接受和擴展方面邁出了重要一步。

Innovation, combined with our strategic partnerships across Consulting with key hyperscaler and ISV relationships and software with key data providers drive a multiplier effect that fuels our flywheel for growth. We continue to make steady progress in quantum computing. Over the past quarter, we advanced our development road map, improved error correction capabilities, and expanded ecosystem partnerships.

創新，加上我們在諮詢領域與主要超大規模企業和獨立軟體開發商建立的策略合作夥伴關係，以及在軟體領域與主要數據提供者建立的策略合作夥伴關係，能夠產生倍增效應，從而推動我們的成長飛輪。我們在量子計算領域持續取得穩步進展。在過去的一個季度裡，我們推進了發展路線圖，提高了糾錯能力，並擴大了生態系統合作夥伴關係。

Our collaboration with organizations such as Cisco and participation in government initiatives like the US Department of Energy's Genesis Mission and DARPA's Quantum benchmarking initiative reflect growing confidence in IBM's approach to building scalable, fault-tolerant quantum systems. Quantum Advantage will require high-performing hardware. And in December, we deployed our first 120-qubit IBM Quantum Nighthawk-based system for use by our clients.

我們與思科等組織的合作，以及參與美國能源部「創世紀任務」和DARPA「量子基準測試計畫」等政府項目，反映出人們對IBM建構可擴展、容錯量子系統的方法越來越有信心。量子優勢需要高性能硬體。12 月，我們部署了第一個基於 IBM Quantum Nighthawk 的 120 量子位元系統，供我們的客戶使用。

Back in 2024, we predicted that we'd see Quantum Advantage by the end of 2026. And with the help of IBM hardware, software, and rapid cycles of learning, our partners in the scientific computing community are starting to make the first credible Advantage claims. We remain on track to deliver the first large-scale fault-tolerant quantum computer by 2029.

早在 2024 年，我們就預測到 2026 年底我們將看到量子優勢。借助 IBM 的硬體、軟體和快速的學習循環，我們在科學計算領域的合作夥伴開始做出第一個可信的優勢聲明。我們仍有望在 2029 年交付首台大規模容錯量子電腦。

To conclude, we finished the year with strong execution and continued progress against our strategy. IBM has long been known for innovation. What matters most is how that innovation is used to help clients operate better, grow faster, and compete more effectively. We made a clear set of strategic choices over the last several years to help our clients do exactly that, and it is playing out in our results today and going forward. We enter 2026 with momentum and confidence in our ability to sustain 5%-plus revenue growth and grow free cash flow by about $1 billion.

總之，我們以強而有力的執行力和持續的策略進展結束了這一年。IBM一直以創新而聞名。最重要的是如何利用這項創新來幫助客戶更好地運作、更快地發展並更有效地參與競爭。過去幾年，我們做出了一系列明確的策略選擇，以幫助我們的客戶實現這一目標，而這些選擇正在我們今天的成果以及未來的發展中得到體現。我們帶著強勁的勢頭和十足的信心進入 2026 年，相信我們能夠維持 5% 以上的收入成長，並將自由現金流增加約 10 億美元。

With that, let me hand it over to Jim to go through the financials.

那麼，接下來就交給吉姆來分析財務數據吧。

Thanks, Arvind. As we enter 2025, we provided guidance of accelerating 5%-plus revenue growth, greater than 0.5 point of operating pretax margin expansion, double-digit adjusted EBITDA growth and about $13.5 billion of free cash flow. We exited 2025 beating all of these metrics, delivering 6% revenue growth, 100 basis points of operating pretax margin expansion, 17% adjusted EBITDA growth, and $14.7 billion of free cash flow, growing 16% over last year.

謝謝你，Arvind。展望 2025 年，我們預期營收成長將加速至 5% 以上，營業稅前利潤率將擴大 0.5 個百分點以上，調整後 EBITDA 將實現兩位數成長，自由現金流約為 135 億美元。我們在 2025 年結束時，各項指標均超出預期，實現了 6% 的收入增長、100 個基點的稅前營業利潤率增長、17% 的調整後 EBITDA 增長以及 147 億美元的自由現金流，比上一年增長了 16%。

This represents our highest free cash flow margin in reported history, and we delivered 12% growth in operating diluted earnings per share. This performance reflects strong execution of our flywheel for growth through client trust, leadership in hybrid cloud and Gen AI, accelerating innovation, deep domain expertise and an ecosystem multiplier effect.

這代表了我們有史以來最高的自由現金流利潤率，並且我們的稀釋後每股營運收益成長了 12%。這項業績反映了我們透過客戶信任、混合雲和人工智慧領域的領導地位、加速創新、深厚的領域專業知識和生態系統倍增效應，實現了強勁的成長飛輪效應。

In 2025, we were intently focused on strengthening and accelerating our Software portfolio, delivering innovation value with our next-generation mainframe launch, expanding our early leadership in Gen AI and quantum, and executing M&A growth synergies across IBM. All of our segments accelerated in the second half of 2025 with these drivers playing out and demonstrating momentum across our diversified business.

2025 年，我們專注於加強和加速我們的軟體產品組合，透過推出下一代大型主機創造創新價值，擴大我們在人工智慧和量子領域的早期領先地位，並在 IBM 內部執行併購成長協同效應。在這些驅動因素的作用下，我們所有業務板塊在 2025 年下半年都實現了加速成長，並在我們多元化的業務中展現出強勁的發展勢頭。

For the full year, Software grew 9%, our highest annual growth rate in history with three of our four subsegments delivering double-digit growth rates. Infrastructure was up 10%, reflecting a record z17 launch, achieving the highest annual revenue for IBM Z in about 20 years and outpacing z16 over the first three quarters of the program. And Consulting inflected back to growth in the second half, driven by Gen AI momentum with our Gen AI book of business in Consulting at more than $10.5 billion inception to date.

全年來看，軟體業務成長了 9%，創歷史最高年度成長率，其中四個子業務板塊中有三個實現了兩位數的成長率。基礎設施收入成長了 10%，反映出 z17 的發布創下了紀錄，實現了 IBM Z 近 20 年來最高的年度收入，並在該計劃的前三個季度超過了 z16。下半年諮詢業務恢復成長，主要得益於人工智慧時代的強勁勢頭，迄今為止，人工智慧時代的諮詢業務規模已超過 105 億美元。

Let me now dive deeper into our fourth-quarter performance. Software revenue growth accelerated to 11% on top of last year's growth of 11.5%, which was the highest in 15 years. Growth was driven by the strength of our recurring revenue base, our shift to higher growth end markets, innovation, including our early leadership in GenAI, M&A growth synergies and monetization of our strong IBM Z placement with an inflection in transaction processing.

現在讓我更深入地分析一下我們第四季的業績。軟體營收成長速度加快至 11%，去年同期成長率為 11.5%，創 15 年來新高。成長的驅動力來自我們強勁的經常性收入基礎、向高成長終端市場的轉型、創新（包括我們在 GenAI 領域的早期領先地位）、併購成長協同效應以及我們在 IBM Z 平台上的強大影響力帶來的貨幣化，以及交易處理領域的轉折點。

Our ARR was strong at $23.6 billion, up over $2 billion from the end of 2024. This quarter's performance was broad-based across our synergistic portfolio with organic growth accelerating to over 7%. Data grew 19%, fueled by the demand for our Gen AI products and strong performance with established strategic partners who enable customers to power our AI innovation and mission-critical workloads. These market dynamics underscore the synergy opportunity we see with Confluent.

我們的年度經常性收入 (ARR) 表現強勁，達到 236 億美元，比 2024 年底增加了 20 多億美元。本季度，我們綜效顯著的產品組合整體表現良好，有機成長加速至 7% 以上。數據成長了 19%，這得益於市場對我們 Gen AI 產品的需求，以及與成熟策略合作夥伴的良好合作，這些合作夥伴能夠幫助客戶推動我們的 AI 創新和關鍵任務工作負載。這些市場動態凸顯了我們所看到的與 Confluent 的協同效應機會。

Automation grew 14%, including another record bookings quarter for HashiCorp. Red Hat decelerated to 8%, driven partially by the wrap on last year's elevated consumption-based services that we called out last quarter and also from the in-quarter yield on single-digit bookings growth driven by delays in US federal business deal activity related to the government shutdown, while a longer growth arc, virtualization continues to gain momentum, including over $500 million of contracts signed over the last two years.

自動化業務成長了 14%，其中 HashiCorp 又創下了季度預訂量新高。紅帽的收益率放緩至 8%，部分原因是去年消費服務的強勁增長（我們在上個季度曾提到過），以及受美國聯邦政府停擺導致業務交易活動延遲的影響，本季度預訂量僅實現個位數增長，導致收益率下降。但從長遠來看，虛擬化業務繼續保持成長勢頭，過去兩年已簽署超過 5 億美元的合約。

OpenShift is now $1.9 billion ARR business, growing more than 30%. And as we expected last quarter, given the record z17 placement this year, transaction processing inflected back to growth of 4%.

OpenShift 目前是一家年收入達 19 億美元的企業，成長率超過 30%。正如我們上個季度所預期的那樣，鑑於今年 z17 的安裝量創下歷史新高，交易處理量回升至成長 4%。

Consulting revenue grew 1% in the fourth quarter, with Intelligent Operations up 3% and strategy and technology remaining stable. Performance was driven by steady demand across key offerings, business application transformation, application migration and modernization, application operations and cybersecurity as clients prioritize cost efficiency while continuing to invest in AI-enabled transformation.

第四季諮詢業務收入成長 1%，其中智慧營運業務成長 3%，策略和技術業務保持穩定。業績成長得益於關鍵產品、業務應用轉型、應用遷移和現代化、應用營運和網路安全方面的穩定需求，因為客戶在繼續投資人工智慧轉型的同時，也優先考慮成本效益。

As Arvind noted, clients are moving beyond experimentation and needs support designing, deploying, and governing AI at scale. Our Consulting generative AI book of business surpassed $2 billion in the quarter, our largest quarter of Gen AI, reflecting continued momentum.

正如 Arvind 所指出的那樣，客戶正在超越實驗階段，需要支援來設計、部署和管理大規模人工智慧。本季度，我們的諮詢生成式人工智慧業務收入超過 20 億美元，創下生成式人工智慧業務季度新高，反映出持續的成長動能。

We are also expanding our impact through client zero, applying our generative AI experience in driving productivity and efficiency to help clients operationalize AI at scale. This practical experience, combined with our domain expertise, is resonating with clients. While overall signings were down as we wrapped on record fourth-quarter signings last year, the mix continued to improve with a greater share of strategic wins from both new clients and expanded engagements within existing ones.

我們也透過客戶零點計畫擴大影響力，運用我們在提高生產力和效率方面的生成式人工智慧經驗，幫助客戶大規模地實施人工智慧。這種實務經驗，結合我們的專業知識，引起了客戶的共鳴。儘管去年第四季簽約量創下歷史新高，但整體簽約量有所下降，不過簽約組合持續改善，新客戶的策略性勝利和現有客戶拓展合作的份額都在增加。

Infrastructure revenue grew 17% this quarter, with hybrid infrastructure up 24% and infrastructure support down 2%. Within hybrid infrastructure, IBM Z had another outstanding quarter, delivering its highest fourth-quarter revenue in more than two decades, up 61% year to year, reflecting the enduring value of the platform and the success of our latest z17 program.

本季基礎設施收入成長了 17%，其中混合基礎設施成長了 24%，基礎設施支援下降了 2%。在混合基礎架構方面，IBM Z 迎來了一個出色的季度，實現了二十多年來最高的第四季度收入，同比增長 61%，這反映了該平台的持久價值以及我們最新的 z17 項目的成功。

Clients are investing in z17 for its differentiated capabilities, real-time AI inferencing, quantum-safe security and AI-driven operational efficiency, which are critical as enterprises modernize mission-critical workloads and scale for data-intensive environments. IBM Z continues to be the backbone of enterprise IT, enabling clients to integrate seamlessly with hybrid cloud while unlocking new levels of resiliency, scalability, and performance.

客戶投資 z17 是因為它具有差異化的功能、即時 AI 推理、量子安全安全性和 AI 驅動的營運效率，這些功能對於企業實現關鍵任務工作負載現代化並擴展到資料密集型環境至關重要。IBM Z 仍然是企業 IT 的支柱，使客戶能夠與混合雲無縫集成，同時釋放更高水準的彈性、可擴展性和效能。

Distributed infrastructure revenue was flat with product cycle dynamics impacting storage, offset by growth in power, supported by solid adoption of our newly launched solutions.

分散式基礎設施收入持平，產品週期動態影響了儲存業務，但電力業務的成長抵消了這一影響，這得益於我們新推出的解決方案的穩步普及。

Now turning to profitability. In 2025, we delivered our highest operating gross profit margin in reported history and highest operating pretax margin in a decade, demonstrating the evolution of our portfolio mix and our laser focus on productivity. For the full year, productivity, mix and revenue scale drove expansion of operating gross profit margin by 170 basis points, adjusted EBITDA margin by 230 basis points and operating pretax margin by 100 basis points. And we achieved this despite absorbing more than $300 million of dilution from HashiCorp.

現在來談談獲利能力。2025 年，我們實現了有史以來最高的營業毛利率和十年來最高的營業稅前利潤率，這體現了我們投資組合的演變以及我們對生產力的專注。全年來看，生產力、產品組合和收入規模的提高推動營業毛利率增長了 170 個基點，調整後 EBITDA 利潤率增長了 230 個基點，營業稅前利潤率增長了 100 個基點。儘管我們承受了來自 HashiCorp 超過 3 億美元的股權稀釋，但我們仍然實現了這一目標。

Given the announcement of our intent to acquire Confluent, we accelerated productivity initiatives in the fourth quarter to help mitigate 2026 dilution, similar to our playbook on HashiCorp. Excluding resulting workforce rebalancing charges we took in the fourth quarter, operating pretax margin expanded by 140 basis points for the full year.

鑑於我們宣布有意收購 Confluent，我們在第四季度加快了生產力提升計劃，以幫助減輕 2026 年股權稀釋的影響，這與我們對 HashiCorp 的做法類似。剔除第四季提列的勞動力重新平衡費用，全年營業稅前利潤率增加了 140 個基點。

Segment profit margins expanded by 100 basis points in Software, 180 basis points in Consulting, with Consulting margins at the highest level in three years and 450 basis points in infrastructure. For the full year, we generated $14.7 billion of free cash flow, up $2 billion year over year, resulting in the highest free cash flow margin in reported history. The primary driver of this growth is adjusted EBITDA, up $2.8 billion year over year, partially offset by increased investments in CapEx, higher cash taxes and higher net interest expense as we expected coming into 2025.

軟體業務利潤率成長了 100 個基點，諮詢業務利潤率成長了 180 個基點，其中諮詢業務利潤率達到三年來的最高水平，基礎設施業務利潤率增長了 450 個基點。全年來看，我們產生了 147 億美元的自由現金流，比前一年增加了 20 億美元，實現了有史以來最高的自由現金流利潤率。這一增長的主要驅動力是調整後的 EBITDA，同比增長 28 億美元，但部分被資本支出增加、現金稅收增加以及淨利息支出增加所抵消，正如我們預期的那樣，這種情況將持續到 2025 年。

Let me talk about our free cash flow evolution in a little more detail. Our repositioning to a software-led business, in addition to our cost discipline and productivity initiatives, drive significant operating leverage in our financial model. Since 2022, we have consistently delivered double-digit growth in free cash flow, well in excess of revenue growth, demonstrating this business model evolution.

讓我更詳細地談談我們的自由現金流變化。我們向軟體主導型企業的轉型，加上成本控制和生產力提升舉措，為我們財務模式帶來了顯著的營運槓桿效應。自 2022 年以來，我們的自由現金流持續實現兩位數成長，遠遠超過營收成長，證明了這種商業模式的演變。

Our flywheel for growth and disciplined execution of productivity initiatives lead to sustainable and high-quality free cash flow generation. This durable cash flow engine enables us to invest in our business to accelerate growth. This includes increased organic innovation with R&D up about $2.5 billion since 2019. And it allows us to pursue highly strategic M&A transactions like Apptio, Software AG, HashiCorp, Data Stacks and Confluent that drive M&A synergies across IBM.

我們透過飛輪效應促進成長，並嚴格執行各項生產力提升計劃，從而實現可持續的高品質自由現金流。這種穩定的現金流使我們能夠投資於業務，從而加速成長。這包括有機創新能力的提升，自 2019 年以來研發投入增加了約 25 億美元。這使我們能夠進行像 Apptio、Software AG、HashiCorp、Data Stacks 和 Confluent 這樣具有高度戰略意義的併購交易，從而推動 IBM 內部的併購協同效應。

Our diversified and integrated business drives a platform multiplier effect that uniquely allows us to deliver M&A synergies. This includes synergies from our global go-to-market distribution scale, platform synergies that amplify value with IBM's complementary offerings and operational synergies through our G&A discipline. Most recently, this can be seen with HashiCorp, delivering adjusted EBITDA accretion ahead of expectations within the first full year in IBM.

我們多元化和一體化的業務驅動著平台倍增效應，使我們能夠以獨特的方式實現併購綜效。這包括我們全球市場分銷規模帶來的綜效、透過 IBM 的互補產品提升價值的平台綜效，以及透過我們的一般及行政管理紀律帶來的營運綜效。最近的例子是 HashiCorp，該公司在 IBM 的第一個完整年度內實現了調整後 EBITDA 成長，超出預期。

Our financial flexibility fuels innovation and our disciplined capital allocation policy, including our commitment to return capital to shareholders. We exited 2025 with a strong liquidity position and a solid investment-grade balance sheet with cash of $14.5 billion. We invested $8.3 billion in acquisitions and returned $6.3 billion to shareholders in the form of dividends. Our debt balance ending the year was $61.3 billion, including $15.1 billion of debt for our financing business with a receivables portfolio that is almost 80% investment grade.

我們的財務彈性推動了創新，而我們嚴謹的資本配置政策，包括我們對股東回報資本的承諾，也促進了創新。2025 年底，我們擁有強勁的流動性狀況和穩健的投資等級資產負債表，現金儲備達 145 億美元。我們投資了 83 億美元用於收購，並以股息的形式向股東返還了 63 億美元。截至年底，我們的債務餘額為 613 億美元，其中包括融資業務的 151 億美元債務，該業務的應收帳款組合中近 80% 為投資級。

Now let me discuss our expectations for 2026. Our strong performance in 2025 reflects the strength of our diversified portfolio and a multiyear execution of our strategic repositioning. Consistent with our Investor Day model, we expect to sustain constant currency revenue growth of 5%-plus in 2026 and free cash flow to be up about $1 billion year over year, growing high-single digits.

現在讓我來談談我們對2026年的預期。我們在 2025 年的強勁表現反映了我們多元化投資組合的實力以及我們多年來策略重組的有效執行。與我們的投資者日模型一致，我們預計 2026 年按固定匯率計算的收入成長率將保持在 5% 以上，自由現金流將年增約 10 億美元，實現高個位數成長。

Our revenue expectations are underpinned by our durable and accelerating Software business, which we expect to grow 10% this year. This acceleration is led by organic growth, driven by the strength of our recurring revenue base, our shift to higher growth end markets, GenAI traction, M&A growth synergies, and monetization of our record Z placement with an inflection in transaction processing, a tremendous source of profitability and free cash flow for IBM. And we continue to expect Confluent will close by the middle of 2026.

我們營收預期主要得益於我們穩健且不斷加速成長的軟體業務，我們預計該業務今年將成長 10%。這一加速成長是由內生成長引領的，這得益於我們強勁的經常性收入基礎、我們向高成長終端市場的轉型、GenAI 的發展勢頭、併購帶來的成長協同效應，以及我們創紀錄的 Z 系列產品在交易處理領域的應用變現，這為 IBM 帶來了巨大的盈利能力和自由現金流。我們仍然預計 Confluent 將在 2026 年年中關閉。

In Consulting, our backlog levels and momentum in GenAI, with backlog penetration over 25%, support an acceleration in revenue growth to low to mid-single digits for the year. The powerful combination of our integrated platforms, services as software model, and client zero experience allow us to deliver differentiated value to clients.

在諮詢領域，我們的積壓訂單水準和 GenAI 的發展勢頭（積壓訂單滲透率超過 25%）支持今年的收入成長加速至個位數低至中段。我們整合的平台、軟體即服務模式以及零客戶體驗的強大組合，使我們能夠為客戶提供差異化的價值。

We enter 2026 three quarters into the z17 launch. We expect infrastructure revenue to be down low-single digits, about a 0.5 point impact to IBM, with Z growth in the first quarter balanced by product cycle dynamics throughout the rest of the year. The strength of our Z placement fuels our flywheel for growth with its attractive 3 to 4x stack multiplier across IBM.

進入 2026 年，我們已經完成了 z17 發布會的三個季度。我們預計基礎設施收入將下降個位數百分比，對 IBM 的影響約為 0.5 個百分點，第一季 Z 業務的成長將被今年剩餘時間的產品週期動態所抵消。我們 Z-Class 佈局的優勢為我們的成長提供了動力，其在 IBM 內部實現了 3 到 4 倍的堆疊倍增效應。

Let me now touch on our GenAI book of business before I turn to profit. We have been reporting our cumulative GenAI book of business since the third quarter of 2023 when it was in the low hundreds of millions of dollars. We exited 2025 with the GenAI book of business greater than $12.5 billion, demonstrating strong momentum in Consulting and Software. This will be the last quarter in which we report this metric separately.

在談到獲利之前，我想先簡單介紹一下我們的 GenAI 業務。自 2023 年第三季以來，我們一直在報告 GenAI 的累積業務量，當時該業務量為數億美元。到 2025 年底，GenAI 的業務規模超過 125 億美元，這表明我們在諮詢和軟體領域擁有強勁的發展勢頭。這將是我們最後一次單獨報告這項指標。

AI is now embedded across our business from how we deliver services to our Software portfolio to the capabilities we are adding to our infrastructure platforms and how we drive our own productivity. As a result, a stand-alone Gen AI metric no longer reflects the full scope of how AI is driving value across IBM. For the full year, we expect IBM's operating pretax margin to expand by about 1 point.

人工智慧已經融入我們業務的方方面面，從我們提供服務的方式到我們的軟體產品組合，再到我們正在添加到基礎設施平台的功能，以及我們如何提高自身的生產力。因此，單獨的 Gen AI 指標已不再能全面反映 AI 如何為 IBM 創造價值。我們預計 IBM 全年稅前營業利潤率將成長約 1 個百分點。

Our Software portfolio mix and ongoing productivity initiatives continue to drive margin expansion and mitigate Z product cycles and the impact of dilution from acquisitions. Our operating tax rate for the year should be in the mid-teens, and the timing of discrete items can cause the rate to vary within the year.

我們的軟體產品組合和持續的生產力提升措施持續推動利潤率擴張，並緩解 Z 產品週期和收購帶來的稀釋影響。我們今年的營業稅率應該在十幾個百分點點左右，但個別項目的發生時間可能會導致稅率在一年內有所波動。

Let me give a little bit more color on Confluent dilution dynamics. We anticipate absorbing about $600 million of dilution from Confluent in 2026, driven largely by stock-based compensation and interest expense. We expect Confluent will be accretive to adjusted EBITDA within the first full year and to free cash flow in year two post close.

讓我再詳細解釋一下 Confluent 稀釋動力學。我們預計 2026 年 Confluent 的收購將導致約 6 億美元的股權稀釋，主要原因是股票選擇權補償和利息支出。我們預計 Confluent 將在交易完成後的第一個完整年度內增加調整後的 EBITDA，並在交易完成後的第二年增加自由現金流。

We have multiple levers that underpin our confidence in these accretion targets, including revenue synergies, operational spend synergies and ongoing productivity savings. Revenue synergies include both the ability to accelerate revenue leveraging our go-to-market distribution platform as well as drive product synergies, which play out over time.

我們有多項措施來支撐我們對這些成長目標的信心，包括收入綜效、營運支出綜效和持續的生產力提升。收入綜效包括利用我們的市場分銷平台加速收入成長的能力，以及推動產品綜效的能力，而這些綜效會隨著時間的推移而顯現。

We expect to realize about $500 million of operational spend run rate synergies by the end of 2027. We continue to accelerate our productivity initiatives and now expect an incremental $1 billion of productivity savings this year, driving $5.5 billion of annual run rate savings by the end of 2026. Taking this all into account, we are confident in our ability to expand operating pretax margin by about 1 point in 2026.

我們預計到 2027 年底，營運支出運行率綜效將達到約 5 億美元。我們將繼續加快提高生產力的舉措，預計今年將新增 10 億美元的生產力節省，到 2026 年底，每年將節省 55 億美元。綜合考慮以上因素，我們有信心在 2026 年將營業稅前利潤率提高約 1 個百分點。

For free cash flow, we expect to grow about $1 billion in 2026, in line with our Investor Day model of high single-digit growth. Given the strong fundamentals of our business, adjusted EBITDA growth will be the primary driver of our free cash flow, offset by similar factors as last year, including cash tax headwinds, higher CapEx, and higher net interest expense.

對於自由現金流，我們預計到 2026 年將成長約 10 億美元，這與我們投資者日預測的高個位數成長模型相符。鑑於我們業務的強勁基本面，調整後的 EBITDA 成長將成為我們自由現金流的主要驅動力，但會受到與去年類似的因素的抵消，包括現金稅收不利因素、更高的資本支出和更高的淨利息支出。

Looking to the first quarter, we expect our constant currency revenue growth rate to be similar to the full year. And for operating pretax margin, we expect about 100 basis points of expansion with workforce rebalancing fairly consistent with the prior year. Our first quarter operating tax rate should be in the mid-teens.

展望第一季度，我們預計以固定匯率計算的營收成長率將與全年持平。至於營業稅前利潤率，我們預計將成長約 100 個基點，員工人數調整與前一年基本一致。我們第一季的營業稅率應該在十幾個百分點點左右。

We are excited about our prospects in 2026. Our growth accelerators, portfolio mix, integrated value, and continued investment in innovation are driving sustainable revenue growth and strong free cash flow. As we shift toward a software-led business and speed our pace of innovation, our growth flywheel continues to strengthen. We enter 2026 with a solid momentum across our business and remain focused on disciplined execution with unwavering focus on productivity, enabling investing for the future and delivering value for our shareholders.

我們對2026年的前景感到興奮。我們的成長加速器、產品組合、綜合價值以及對創新的持續投資正在推動可持續的收入成長和強勁的自由現金流。隨著我們向軟體驅動型業務轉型並加快創新步伐，我們的成長飛輪效應將持續增強。進入 2026 年，我們業務發展勢頭強勁，並將繼續專注於嚴謹的執行，堅定不移地提高生產力，從而為未來投資，並為股東創造價值。

Arvind and I are now happy to take your questions. Olympia, let's get started.

Arvind 和我現在很樂意回答你們的問題。奧林匹亞，我們開始吧。

Thank you, Jim. Before we begin Q&A, I'd like to mention a couple of items. First, supplemental information is provided at the end of the presentation. And then second, as always, I'd ask you to refrain from asking multipart questions. Operator, let's please open it up for questions.

謝謝你，吉姆。在開始問答環節之前，我想先提幾點。首先，補充資訊在簡報的結尾處提供。其次，和往常一樣，我希望你們不要提出包含多個問題的問題。操作員，請開放提問環節。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作說明）

Brent Thill, Jefferies.

布倫特‧蒂爾，傑富瑞集團。

Arvind, good to see the comment around Software growth accelerating to double-digit growth this year. I was just curious if you could maybe dig into the components and why you're excited for that organic-led initiative? And then anything else that's important to note this year on the Software portfolio that maybe we haven't seen in '25?

Arvind，很高興看到關於軟體成長今年將加速至兩位數成長的評論。我只是好奇，您能否深入探討其中的組成部分，以及為什麼您對這項以有機增長為主導的計劃感到興奮？那麼，今年軟體產品組合方面還有其他值得注意的重要事項嗎？這些事項可能是我們在 2025 年沒有看到的？

Give you a bit of a perspective on the dynamics of the different parts of the Software business. And then for quantification, I'll turn it over to Jim.

讓你對軟體產業各個部分的動態有一個大致的了解。至於量化分析，我將交給吉姆。

So first, we are incredibly pleased with how we got to the end of the year on Software. We are pleased with the organic growth in Software, and we are pleased with the inorganic contribution. If I sort of peel it first from the subsegments, automation, I think, is on a secular demand increase.

首先，我們對今年軟體業務的收尾工作非常滿意。我們對軟體業務的內生成長感到滿意，對外延成長也感到滿意。如果我先從各個細分領域中剝離出來，我認為自動化需求正在呈現長期成長趨勢。

The reason for that is as people have more and more infrastructure, they put more and more AI, they put more and more compute, they need that software to help them manage all of it. And we're seeing that play through in the demand for HashiCorp, which helps you deploy hardware and software with the demand for Apptio, which helps you manage the costs and gives you a perspective of what is happening as well as all of the pieces around how do you integrate applications, how do you integrate data and all of those components.

原因在於，隨著人們擁有越來越多的基礎設施，投入越來越多的AI，投入越來越多的運算能力，他們需要軟體來幫助他們管理這一切。我們看到，這種需求體現在對 HashiCorp 的需求上，它可以幫助您部署硬體和軟體；同時，也體現在對 Apptio 的需求上，它可以幫助您管理成本，並讓您了解正在發生的事情，以及如何整合應用程式、如何整合資料以及所有這些元件。

So I think that expecting well into double-digit growth for that part is appropriate, and we see that in our early demand signals.

所以我認為，預期該部分實現兩位數成長是合適的，而且我們從早期的需求訊號中也看到了這一點。

If I look at data, data benefits both from our data products that we provide, the organic innovation we have done with watsonx, both the AI pieces and the orchestrate piece for agents. And we expect that, that demand will keep pulling through and going forward as people are deploying AI for enterprise productivity and inside the enterprise.

如果我審視數據，數據既受益於我們提供的數據產品，也受益於我們利用 Watson X 進行的創新，包括人工智慧部分和代理商的編排部分。我們預計，隨著人們在企業內部和企業生產力方面部署人工智慧，這種需求將繼續保持並持續成長。

Then we also have a lot of partnerships in the data space that we see strong demand for and that we expect are going to continue. Mainframe, given the very strong cycle we had, somewhere between low- to mid-single-digit growth is reasonable, and we have seen that dynamic play through, but it kind of follows the hardware placement by a few quarters. So all that hardware as people consume it, is going to cause that to grow.

此外，我們在數據領域也有很多合作夥伴關係，我們看到了強勁的需求，我們預計這些合作關係將會持續下去。鑑於我們經歷了非常強勁的周期，大型主機業務在個位數低到中段的成長是合理的，我們也看到了這種動態變化，但它的成長速度與硬體佈局的趨勢大致相差幾個季度。因此，隨著人們對硬體的消費，所有這些硬體都會成長。

And then we get to Red Hat. First, we are very pleased with the doubling almost -- more than doubling of the Red Hat business since we acquired it. It was 3 -- early $3 billion, $3.2 billion when we made the acquisition, finishing the year at $7.5 billion on a run rate, just extrapolating from the fourth quarter towards $8 billion. We see strong demand in many of the pieces there, including on Red Hat Linux, but that probably in the mid-single digits, more than in the high to double, which is in line with server growth. You're still taking share.

接下來我們來談談紅帽公司。首先，我們非常高興地看到，自從我們收購紅帽以來，其業務規模幾乎翻了一番——實際上超過了一倍。年初時為 30 億美元，收購時為 32 億美元，年底以運行速度計算為 75 億美元，僅從第四季的數據推斷，就將達到 80 億美元。我們看到許多組件的需求都很強勁，包括 Red Hat Linux，但成長幅度可能只有個位數中段，而不是接近兩倍，這與伺服器的成長趨勢一致。你仍然在搶佔市場份額。

And the piece there that continues to be very, very attractive to growth is OpenShift, which is almost at $2 billion and running at a 30% growth rate, and we expect that to continue both for containers, for hybrid applications and for virtualization.

其中，OpenShift 仍然是成長的動力，其市場規模已接近 20 億美元，成長率高達 30%，我們預計容器、混合應用程式和虛擬化領域都將繼續保持這種成長勢頭。

So if you put all of that together, then that gives me confidence on the growth that Jim laid out about 10% for the year. This all assumes a midyear closing for Confluent, which is sort of baked into our expectations right now. Now of course, we're going to strive to do even better, but I think that this is a prudent set of numbers to put out.

所以，綜合所有因素來看，這讓我對吉姆提出的今年約 10% 的成長目標充滿信心。這一切都基於 Confluent 年中關閉的假設，而這目前基本上也符合我們的預期。當然，我們以後會努力做得更好，但我認為公佈這組數據是比較謹慎的做法。

Yeah. The only thing I would add just to wrap it up, and I'll say it on behalf of Arvind's given how humble he is. When you look at 2025 and our Software execution, I think what you see, one, is the strength of our portfolio and the diversification of that portfolio. And that's a reflection of a multiyear strategic repositioning of the IBM company to a software-led platform-centric company.

是的。最後，我只想補充一點，而且鑑於 Arvind 為人謙遜，我謹代表他發言。展望 2025 年以及我們的軟體執行情況，我認為你會看到，首先，我們產品組合的實力以及該產品組合的多元化。這反映了 IBM 公司多年來向以軟體為主導、以平台為中心的公司進行策略性重新定位的成果。

We finished '25 with one of the highest growths we've ever had in Software overall. But it's pervasive with three of our four Software categories growing double digits. You dial back only about three years ago, we only had one growth vector, and that was Red Hat. That is the foundation of our hybrid cloud and AI strategy.

2025 年，我們的軟體業務整體成長率達到了有史以來的最高水準之一。但這種趨勢十分普遍，我們四大軟體類別中有三個實現了兩位數的成長。回顧大約三年前，我們只有一個成長點，那就是紅帽公司。它是我們混合雲端和人工智慧策略的基石。

The work we've done around repositioning the portfolio, a disciplined capital allocation to build out an automation portfolio, a data portfolio and always capitalizing on that high profit margin transaction processing portfolio has just been phenomenal, and it's leading to a sustainable, durable growth engine that gives us that conviction of double-digit growth here in 2026.

我們在重新定位投資組合、有紀律地分配資本以構建自動化投資組合、數據投資組合以及始終利用高利潤率的交易處理投資組合方面所做的工作非常出色，這正在打造一個可持續、持久的增長引擎，使我們有信心在 2026 年實現兩位數的增長。

But when you cut to the underpinnings, it reflects that diversity. ARR, roughly $24 billion growing high single digits. Gen AI, over $2 billion book of business, up 2x in the fourth quarter. And that M&A growth synergies, you're just seeing the beginnings of that play out with Hashi with another record quarter overall. So we are excited about the opportunity ahead, and we feel confident about Software now at double digits, not approaching double digits.

但當你深入了解其本質時，你會發現它反映了這種多樣性。年度經常性收入 (ARR) 約為 240 億美元，維持高個位數成長。Gen AI 業務規模超過 20 億美元，第四季成長 2 倍。而併購帶來的成長綜效，目前只是 Hashi 業績再次創下季度新高的一個開端。因此，我們對未來的機會感到興奮，並且對軟體業務目前的兩位數成長充滿信心，而不是接近兩位數成長。

Great. Operator, let's take the next question.

偉大的。操作員，我們來回答下一個問題。

Amit Daryanani, Evercore.

Amit Daryanani，Evercore。

Congrats on some nice numbers here. I just want to focus on free cash flow a bit. And if I go back to the start of the year in '25, you folks talked about $13.5 billion free cash flow guide. You sort of ended up being $14.7 billion, I think, when it's all said and done. And I think revenue growth helped you somewhat, but it was really good free cash flow margin conversion.

恭喜你取得了一些不錯的成績。我只想稍微關心一下自由現金流。如果我回到 2025 年初，你們當時談到了 135 億美元的自由現金流目標。我想，最終你們的資產大概達到 147 億美元了。我認為營收成長對你們有幫助，但真正重要的是自由現金流利潤率的提升。

So I'd love to know from your perspective, what drove the strength, the better performance in free cash flow in '25? And where I really want to go with this is I want to understand the $15.7 billion free cash flow guide for this year, which is impressive, but it implies high-single digit free cash flow growth versus the 16% that you saw last year.

所以我很想知道，從您的角度來看，是什麼因素推動了2025年自由現金流的強勁成長和更佳表現？我真正想探討的是，我想了解今年 157 億美元的自由現金流預期，這令人印象深刻，但這暗示著自由現金流成長率只有個位數，而去年是 16%。

So maybe just help me appreciate, was there something unique that you saw in '25 that led to the 16%? And any puts and takes around the 15.7% number for this year?

所以，或許您可以幫我理解一下，您在 2025 年看到了什麼獨特的事情導致了 16% 的成長？對於今年15.7%這個數字，大家有什麼看法？

Thanks, Amit. I appreciate the question. As we've been talking about for five years, six years now going on, as Arvind has taken over this company, we've got two key measures that we drive this company on, revenue growth and free cash flow generation. And by the way, they're synergistically aligned because it provides that flywheel of investment flexibility. But you're exactly right.

謝謝你，阿米特。感謝您的提問。正如我們過去五、六年來一直在討論的那樣，自從 Arvind 接管這家公司以來，我們有兩個關鍵指標來推動公司的發展，那就是收入成長和自由現金流的產生。順便說一句，它們之間存在協同效應，因為它提供了投資靈活性的飛輪效應。但你說得完全正確。

We entered the year, and I remember a year ago sitting in this chair, I got asked the question. I think it was either you or Ben about are we -- my words, are we sandbagging free cash flow? And at that time, we said $13.5 billion. And the underpinnings behind that was double-digit growth in adjusted EBITDA and that we would have partially mitigating that some headwinds on -- or I would talk about tailwinds, higher cash tax because we got a higher profit profile, higher CapEx because we're going to invest in this business for long-term future growth. And we were going to have higher net interest and acquisition-related charges.

新的一年開始了，我記得一年前我坐在這張椅子上，有人問了我這個問題。我想應該是你或本問過我們——用我的話來說，我們是否在人為地壓低自由現金流？當時，我們給的數字是 135 億美元。而背後的基礎是調整後 EBITDA 的兩位數成長，這將在一定程度上緩解一些不利因素——或者我應該說是有利因素，例如更高的現金稅（因為我們的利潤更高）、更高的資本支出（因為我們將投資於這項業務以實現長期的未來成長）。而且，我們的淨利息和收購相關費用也會更高。

Now you fast forward a year later, we posted $14.7 billion. By the way, up $2 billion, up 16%, highest free cash flow we've seen in well over a decade, highest free cash flow margin on record of 114-year history of our great company. And the underpinnings behind that cash flow were entirely driven by the fundamentals of our business, the acceleration we saw in our revenue growth throughout the year and the strong operating leverage we continue to get out of this business.

一年後，我們的營收達到了 147 億美元。順便一提，自由現金流成長了 20 億美元，成長了 16%，這是我們十多年來見過的最高自由現金流，也是我們這家偉大公司 114 年歷史上最高的自由現金流利潤率。而這一現金流的根本動力完全來自我們業務的基本面，即我們全年收入成長的加速以及我們持續從這項業務中獲得的強勁營運槓桿。

So where we started with adjusted EBITDA at double-digit growth, we finished at 17%. That's an incremental $1 billion of adjusted EBITDA from where we were a year ago. And by the way, that's a flywheel engine. Revenue acceleration, operating leverage, and driving an efficient balance sheet where we're very proud about a solid investment-grade balance sheet, generates significant substantial free cash flow.

所以，我們最初調整後的 EBITDA 實現了兩位數的成長，最終達到了 17%。與一年前相比，調整後的 EBITDA 增加了 10 億美元。順便說一句，那是一台飛輪引擎。收入加速成長、營運槓桿作用以及打造高效的資產負債表（我們非常自豪地擁有穩健的投資等級資產負債表），產生了可觀的自由現金流。

So now you fast forward to this year. We enter 2026 with a lot of momentum, confidence. By the way, I should have said over the last three years, we've grown free cash flow $5.5 billion. So that growth vector of what's been happening.

現在快進到今年。我們帶著強勁的勢頭和十足的信心邁入2026年。順便提一下，我應該說，在過去的三年裡，我們的自由現金流增加了 55 億美元。所以這就是目前發展趨勢的驅動力。

But you look at 2026, our investor model is high-single digit. We got a lot of work to do in 2026. We said we'd guide confidently up $1 billion at $15.7 billion. That's on a high-single-digit growth. It's early in the year, high-single-digit growth of adjusted EBITDA. And we are sitting here with a tremendous amount of leverage and opportunity just like we were a year ago. And our goal is to continue driving the durable, sustainable performance of this company as we move forward.

但展望 2026 年，我們的投資人模型預測收益率將達到個位數高點。2026年我們有很多工作要做。我們曾自信地預測，營收將上調 10 億美元，達到 157 億美元。這是在接近兩位數的成長率基礎上實現的。年初至今，調整後 EBITDA 實現了接近兩位數的成長。我們現在仍然擁有巨大的優勢和機遇，就像一年前一樣。我們的目標是繼續推動公司保持持久、可持續的業績成長。

So why do we feel excited? One, we have a focused portfolio, disciplined capital allocation, diversification of our business model and a relentless focus on profitability that drives the durability of free cash flow engine in this company that gives us the financial flexibility to continue to invest for long-term sustainable advantage. So we feel confident about that $15.7 billion, and our job is to beat it this year.

那麼，我們為什麼會感到興奮呢？第一，我們擁有專注的投資組合、嚴謹的資本配置、多元化的業務模式以及對盈利能力的不懈追求，這些因素共同推動了公司自由現金流引擎的持續發展，使我們擁有財務靈活性，能夠繼續投資以獲得長期可持續的優勢。因此，我們對157億美元的目標充滿信心，而我們今年的任務就是超越這個目標。

Great. Operator, let's take the next question.

偉大的。操作員，我們來回答下一個問題。

Ben Reitzes, Melius Research.

本‧雷茨，梅利烏斯研究公司。

At the risk of getting in trouble with Olympia here, on Amit's question, I was surprised you didn't say there's a multi-hundred million hit due to Confluent in the cash flow guide, which without it, it would be higher. But my real question is with regard to Red Hat. And I wanted to just clarify, I appreciate the double-digit guidance for Software.

冒著得罪奧林匹亞的風險，關於阿米特的問題，我很驚訝你沒有提到現金流指南中由於 Confluent 而造成的數億美元的損失，如果沒有 Confluent，損失會更高。但我真正的問題是關於紅帽的。我想澄清一下，我很欣賞軟體方面兩位數的指導價。

I wanted to see what -- how we're going to bridge Red Hat. What -- how do we get the 8% to the mid-teens? Or is mid-teens no longer the growth rate there? Obviously, everything else was great and better than our model, but I'd like to just focus -- laser focus on Red Hat and how we bridge it to within your forecast and towards the prior goals.

我想看看我們該如何與紅帽公司銜接起來。我們該如何把8%的比例提升到15%左右？或者說，十幾歲中期的成長率已經不再是這個水準了？顯然，其他一切都很棒，比我們的模型更好，但我只想集中精力——重點關注紅帽，以及我們如何將其與你們的預測和先前的目標聯繫起來。

Yes. Thanks, Ben. And I didn't say the dilution effect because, to be honest with you, dilution is part of our model. Our investors expect us to be disciplined capital allocators. I think we've earned the credibility about that. And we have to take that into account. That's why we drive portfolio mix. We drive revenue scale. We drive productivity, which, by the way, I also didn't say we exited last year $4.5 billion over the last two years. And we see that going up by another $1 billion this year.

是的。謝謝你，本。我沒有提到稀釋效應，因為坦白說，稀釋是我們模型的一部分。我們的投資者希望我們能夠進行嚴謹的資本配置。我認為我們在這方面已經贏得了信譽。我們必須把這一點考慮進去。這就是我們調整投資組合結構的原因。我們推動營收規模成長。我們提高了生產力，順便說一句，我也沒說我們去年退出了過去兩年的 45 億美元。我們預計今年這數字還會再增加10億美元。

So we got a lot of levers in this business. And we understand that dilution. But you know what, the strategic value of Confluent and the synergistic value of what it does to our portfolio, we definitely could take into account that dilution. So I know you were trying to help on $15.7 billion is higher. Yes, it is. But all in, which is how we operate and report, we got to deliver or beat that number.

所以我們在這個行業有很多可以利用的手段。我們理解這種稀釋效應。但你知道嗎，Confluent 的策略價值以及它對我們投資組合帶來的協同價值，我們絕對可以考慮這種股權稀釋。我知道你試圖幫忙，但157億美元更高。是的。但總而言之，根據我們的運作和報告方式，我們必須達到或超過這個數字。

So -- but let's get back to Software. We talked a lot about the first question. We enter '26 with confidence around the momentum, the diversification of our portfolio, about the strategic repositioning, about the flywheel of growth. And we expect now double-digit growth.

好了——我們還是回到軟體的話題來吧。我們詳細討論了第一個問題。我們對 2026 年充滿信心，這體現在公司的發展動能、投資組合的多元化、策略的重新定位以及成長的飛輪效應等。我們現在預計將達到兩位數成長。

Underneath that, one, that's going to deliver over 4.5 points to IBM's growth in '26, above our model. And as Arvind said, an acceleration of organic growth. Organic will be north of 7 points this year and acquisitions about 3 points. How are we going to do that? We're going to do that, one, we have to acknowledge we're operating in an attractive TAM with a market backdrop for tech that we think is pretty exciting, and Arvind has been on that point about opportunistic.

在此基礎上，有一點，這將使 IBM 在 2026 年的成長比我們的模型高出 4.5 個百分點以上。正如 Arvind 所說，有機成長正在加速。今年有機成長將超過 7 個百分點，收購成長將達到 3 個百分點左右。我們該怎麼做呢？我們打算這樣做，首先，我們必須承認，我們在一個有吸引力的TAM（總市場規模）中運營，我們認為科技市場背景相當令人興奮，Arvind 也一直強調要抓住機會。

Two, we continue -- the thing I think is underappreciated in our disciplined capital allocator, we continue to shift this portfolio mix to higher growth end markets, with companies that we buy, which we always say category leaders in structurally growing markets that we can provide unique value, integrate and deliver differentiated synergies to accelerate growth. That is shifting our underlying portfolio that's also advancing our organic growth profile.

第二，我們繼續——我認為在我們這個紀律嚴明的資本配置者中，有一點被低估了，那就是我們繼續將投資組合轉向更高增長的終端市場，我們收購的公司，我們總是說，是結構性增長市場的行業領導者，我們可以提供獨特的價值，整合並提供差異化的協同效應來加速增長。這正在改變我們的基礎投資組合，同時也正在提升我們的內生成長動能。

Annuity strength, $24 billion exiting the year, growing high-single digits, 8-plus percent. New innovation, GenAI. GenAI in the fourth quarter, up 2x, and we see that continuing as we move forward. M&A growth synergies kicking in off of a record Hashi year, and Arvind talked about TP cycle monetization.

年金實力強勁，年底規模達 240 億美元，維持高個位數成長，超過 8%。新技術，GenAI。GenAI 在第四季度增長了 2 倍，我們預計這一趨勢將持續下去。併購成長綜效源自於 Hashi 創紀錄的一年，Arvind 也談到了 TP 週期貨幣化。

By the way, one point on TP that I think is underappreciated. We talk about very similar to z16 cycle. z16 first year of that cycle, TP was flat. We finished this year flat. One big difference. That flat on z16 was off a down 9%. The flat this year in 2025 was off a plus 10%. So you could see the compounding effect of what's happening to TP, and we see that inflecting the growth.

順便說一句，關於TP，我認為有一點被低估了。我們討論的情況與Z16週期非常相似。 Z16週期的第一年，TP（交易價格）持平。我們今年的收官成績持平。一個很大的不同。z16 的那張平價票下跌了 9%。今年到 2025 年的公寓價格下跌了 10%。所以你可以看到TP所發生的事情的複合效應，我們看到這影響了成長。

So underpinning, and Arvind gave you some of the math. one, data, high teens, contributing about 4 points of that Software growth, well above model. That's going to be driven by new innovation, Gen AI capability, platform economics.

所以，Arvind 給了一些數學數據作為支撐。數據顯示，軟體成長貢獻了約 4 個百分點，遠高於模型預期。這將由新的創新、人工智慧能力和平台經濟效益所驅動。

Two, hybrid cloud. We think that's double digit. Back to where I started my first answer. three, four years ago, we only had one growth vector. Now we got three growth vectors that are growing double digit. Underpinning that, we got a subscription revenue under contract that's growing mid-teens. That's not at model. We only delivered single-digit ACV bookings in the fourth quarter because as we stated in prepared remarks, we were disrupted by the shutdown in the federal government.

第二，混合雲。我們認為那是兩位數。回到我第一個回答的出發點。三、四年前，我們只有一個成長向量。現在我們有三個成長向量都實現了兩位數的成長。在此基礎上，我們簽訂了訂閱收入合同，該合約的成長率達到15%左右。那不是模型。由於聯邦政府停擺，我們受到了乾擾，因此第四季度我們僅實現了個位數的年度合約價值預訂量。

We got to get through that. We're monitoring it. And I would say the word choices, we're being prudent on Red Hat's guidance right now because we only need that at double digit to get Software over the line of double digit. Upside will deliver upside to Software overall.

我們必須挺過這一關。我們正在密切關注。而且我認為，在用詞方面，我們現在對紅帽的指導意見持謹慎態度，因為我們只需要軟體部門達到兩位數的成長就能突破兩位數的門檻。Upside將為軟體產業整體帶來上漲行情。

Automation, great portfolio, low-double digit, 2.5 point contribution to Software on or better than the model. And that's leveraging M&A growth synergies of Hashi's success. And then TP, we're pretty much back to model, low-single, mid-single-digit growth, capitalizing on that economic multiplier. So it gives you a little of the underpinnings behind why we're confident in that 10%-plus growth of Software.

自動化、優秀的投資組合、低兩位數的成長率、軟體貢獻率達到或超過模型的 2.5 分。這是利用 Hashi 成功帶來的併購成長綜效。然後TP，我們基本上又回到了模型中，實現了個位數低段到個位數中段的成長，充分利用了經濟乘數效應。所以，這能讓你稍微了解我們為什麼對軟體產業超過 10% 的成長充滿信心。

We'll take the next question.

我們來回答下一個問題。

Wamsi Mohan, Bank of America.

Wamsi Mohan，美國銀行。

Just a follow-up, a clarification quickly on the last couple of questions around hybrid cloud growth. Are you anticipating any potential pressure on the server refresh cycle from higher memory pricing? And could that sort of have any adverse effect on the Red Hat Enterprise Linux side of things?

最後再補充一點，快速澄清一下關於混合雲成長的最後幾個問題。您是否預計記憶體價格上漲會對伺服器更新周期造成任何潛在壓力？那麼這會不會對 Red Hat Enterprise Linux 方面產生任何不利影響呢？

And my question really is, Jim, on the cadence of PTI improvement, clearly, you're driving a lot of productivity improvement in being able to absorb entirely the dilution from Confluent and then some. So how should we think about the cadence of the progress of that given that Confluent is going to hit midyear, but you've already taken some productivity actions here in 4Q of last year.

吉姆，我真正的問題是，關於 PTI 改進的節奏，顯然，你透過完全吸收 Confluent 的稀釋效應，甚至更多，推動了生產力的大幅提升。鑑於 Confluent 將在年中推出，而你們在去年第四季已經採取了一些提高生產力的措施，那麼我們應該如何看待這一進展的節奏呢？

So should we be seeing more outsized PTI improvements in maybe second quarter? I think you already said what it is in the first quarter, but like in the second quarter. Is that the right way to think about it?

那麼我們是否應該在第二季看到PTI出現更大幅度的改善呢？我想你已經在第一季說過是什麼了，但是第二季的情況又會如何呢？這種思考方式正確嗎？

Okay. So Wamsi, let me take the first part of that question, and I'll ask Jim to address the second part of your question.

好的。那麼，Wamsi，讓我來回答問題的第一部分，我會請Jim來回答你問題的第二部分。

Look, the server dynamics are volatile. And you're right. If I remember correctly, spot memory DRAM prices are six times that of last year. A big reason for that, for those who are interested is because a lot of the capacity is moving over to HBM, or high-bandwidth memory, which is required for AI servers. And if I remember correctly, it takes about four, maybe eight times the capacity of DRAM to do HBM and the pricing and the demand for HBM is driving all the vendors into that. I personally believe as long as that dynamic is there, those pricing issues are going to be there through the year.

你看，伺服器動態變化無常。你說得對。如果沒記錯的話，現貨記憶體DRAM價格是去年的六倍。對於有興趣的人來說，其中一個重要原因是，許多容量正在轉移到 HBM（高頻寬記憶體），而這正是 AI 伺服器所需要的。如果我沒記錯的話，HBM 的容量大約是 DRAM 的四倍，甚至八倍，而 HBM 的價格和需求正在推動所有供應商都轉向 HBM。我個人認為，只要這種市場動態存在，這些定價問題就會持續一整年。

Now the demand side, there is no AI server without a bunch of CPUs right next to it. So the reality becomes that the AI demand also drives demand for normal servers that in turn feed and load up those servers. So I don't expect that the overall server dynamic on which there may be a little bit of an issue is actually going to be any headwind to us on the hybrid cloud or the Linux side.

從需求方面來看，沒有人工智慧伺服器，旁邊就不會有一堆CPU。因此，現實情況是，人工智慧的需求也帶動了對普通伺服器的需求，而這些普通伺服器反過來又會為人工智慧伺服器提供資料並增加其負載。因此，我不認為目前伺服器整體動態方面可能存在一些問題，但實際上不會對我們在混合雲或 Linux 方面造成任何阻礙。

And the reason for that is that there is enough growth going on. There is also a market share movement towards Red Hat as opposed to alternate answers in the marketplace. So that mix overall, I think, keeps us growing well. I also believe that both Red Hat AI and OpenShift AI will feed into the demand from the AI servers, which was going to help that demand.

原因在於，目前經濟成長動能良好。與市場上的其他替代方案相比，紅帽的市場份額也在不斷增長。所以總的來說，我認為這種組合能夠讓我們保持良好的發展動能。我也相信 Red Hat AI 和 OpenShift AI 都將滿足 AI 伺服器的需求，這本來就有助於滿足這種需求。

So let's acknowledge there is going to be memory pressure, and that probably lasts at least a couple of years. But as we look at that, it also gives opportunity for the AI portions of the portfolio to get a lot of tailwinds.

所以我們要承認，記憶壓力是存在的，而且這種壓力可能會持續至少幾年。但從這個角度來看，這也為投資組合中的人工智慧部分帶來了許多順風。

So with that, I'll give it to Jim for, I think, another free cash flow question.

那麼，接下來就交給吉姆來回答另一個關於自由現金流的問題吧。

Yeah. The skew of profitability, Wamsi, I think, was your question. So thanks very much, and I appreciate that, just given we do still expect Confluent to close by midyear this year, obviously, very excited about the strategic capabilities that's going to add. But I think I was very transparent in the prepared remarks about the level of dilution, et cetera. But let me bring it up a level first around how do we run this company and how do we drive the operating leverage that's been going up well above our model over the last three to four years.

是的。瓦姆西，我想，你的問題應該是獲利能力的偏差吧。非常感謝，我很感激。鑑於我們仍然預計 Confluent 將在今年年中完成收購，顯然，我們對這將帶來的策略能力感到非常興奮。但我認為我在事先準備好的發言中已經非常坦誠地說明了稀釋程度等等問題。但首先我想把問題提升到一個更高的層面，那就是我們如何經營這家公司，以及我們如何推動營運槓桿，因為在過去三、四年裡，營運槓桿已經遠高於我們的模式。

Portfolio -- we drive this through portfolio mix. That's why Software being the underpinning of IBM's leverage around 45% of IBM's revenue, but about two-thirds of our profit. Also the high-value recurring revenue, our ARR book of business, high marginal profit dollars. So portfolio mix being one lever, productivity.

投資組合－我們透過投資組合組合來實現這一點。這就是為什麼軟體是 IBM 槓桿作用的基礎，佔 IBM 收入的 45% 左右，但利潤卻占到我們利潤的三分之二左右。還有高價值的經常性收入，我們的 ARR 業務，以及高邊際利潤。因此，投資組合組合是影響生產力的因素。

Every dollar we invest in this company around go-to-market, around R&D, around innovation and around our Consulting services, we look and we drive a very maniacal ROI concept around that profile, just as you would expect us to as an investor like an inorganic M&A acquisition. And three, we drive to bring this company the most productive company in the world and getting G&A scale leverage overall.

我們在公司投入的每一美元，無論是用於市場推廣、研發、創新還是諮詢服務，我們都會圍繞這一目標，追求極致的投資回報率，就像您作為投資者對非有機併購收購所期望的那樣。第三，我們致力於將這家公司打造成為世界上生產力最高的公司，並實現整體的 G&A 規模槓桿效應。

Fundamentally, you manage those three separate buckets differently. When you look at 2026, we said about 1 point growth in margin. We're going to get about 0.5 point on a revenue scale just given the leverage of the acceleration of revenue. We will lose 0.5 point on portfolio mix because we are going to wrap on an unprecedented launch momentum on mainframe, which carries higher profit and higher mix.

從根本上講，你對這三個不同的桶的處理方式是不同的。展望 2026 年，我們預測利潤率將成長約 1 個百分點。考慮到收入加速成長帶來的槓桿效應，我們的收入將獲得約 0.5 分。由於我們將結束前所未有的大型主機產品發布勢頭，而大型主機產品利潤更高、佔比更高，因此我們的投資組合組合將損失 0.5 分。

The remaining full point basically is going to be driven out of productivity. And our model, as you know quite well, we've been driving north of 300 basis points per year of productivity, and we've been reinvesting about 200 basis points of that. That's why you've seen over the last handful of years, our R&D up double-digit growth year over year. And we've taken over the last, what, five years, we've taken $2.5 billion of R&D up overall.

剩餘的1分基本上將來自生產力的提升。如您所知，我們的模式每年能將生產力提高 300 個基點以上，並且我們已經將其中約 200 個基點用於再投資。這就是為什麼在過去幾年裡，你們看到我們的研發投入每年都達到了兩位數的成長。在過去的五年裡，我們總共投入了 25 億美元的研發經費。

But when you look at 2026, productivity is going to drive the day. We feel confident we took up our productivity target to $5.5 billion. We will get revenue scale leverage on G&A, which will mitigate dilution and mitigate product cycles overall.

但展望 2026 年，生產力將成為主導因素。我們有信心實現了55億美元的生產力目標。我們將獲得營收規模槓桿效應，從而降低一般及行政費用，這將緩解稀釋效應並緩解整體產品週期。

To your last question, we think the skew of that profitability is going to follow our normal historical attainment. First quarter will be pretty much on historical attainment. By the way, you do the math, that's double-digit profit growth, double-digit EPS growth. So pretty consistent building off the momentum in fourth quarter.

關於你的最後一個問題，我們認為獲利能力的偏差將遵循我們以往的正常水準。第一季將主要著眼於歷史性成就。順便說一句，你自己算算，這是兩位數的利潤增長，兩位數的每股收益增長。所以，第四節的勢頭延續得相當穩定。

Operator, next question please.

操作員，請問下一個問題？

Jim Schneider, Goldman Sachs.

吉姆‧施耐德，高盛集團。

I was wondering if you could maybe outline the path or trajectory you're expecting for the Consulting business throughout the year. Signings were a little bit weaker in this quarter, but you noted the strong backlog in AI that you're seeing. So maybe talk about how you expect that to convert into revenue over the course of the year and whether you see any kind of further improvement in discretionary or short-cycle spending and projects as you head throughout 2026.

我想請您概述一下您對諮詢業務今年的發展路徑或軌蹟的預期。本季簽約量略有下降，但您也注意到人工智慧領域存在大量積壓訂單。那麼，不妨談談您預計這些支出將如何在今年轉化為收入，以及在 2026 年全年，您是否看到可自由支配支出或短期週期支出和項目有任何進一步改善。

Great, Jim. It's good to hear from you, and I appreciate the question. First of all, we're encouraged by the inflection shift that we see in Consulting business exiting '25. We returned the business back to durable, sustainable growth in the second half, a little bit over 1%. But more importantly, and I think underappreciated, we got a lot of headroom to go, and the team is working diligently around improving the fundamentals of this business, and our operating pretax margins were up by almost 200 basis points in 2025.

太好了，吉姆。很高興收到你的來信，謝謝你的提問。首先，我們對諮詢業務在 2025 年後出現的轉捩點感到鼓舞。下半年，我們使業務恢復了持久、可持續的成長，成長率略高於 1%。但更重要的是，我認為這一點被低估了，我們還有很大的發展空間，團隊正在努力改善這項業務的基本面，到 2025 年，我們的稅前營業利潤率將提高近 200 個基點。

When you look at the market, market definitely remains dynamic, as we talked about earlier. We continue to see opportunity for growth as clients accelerate their investments in AI-driven transformation to unlock operational efficiency, to unlock business model innovation, and unlock growth. I think it's a very different mindset and client buying behavior than we saw 18 months ago when it was pure disruption and discretionary spend that's moving out.

當你觀察市場時，你會發現市場無疑仍然充滿活力，正如我們之前討論的那樣。我們持續看到成長機會，因為客戶正在加速投資人工智慧驅動的轉型，以提高營運效率、推動商業模式創新並實現成長。我認為這與 18 個月前我們看到的完全不同的心態和客戶購買行為，當時的情況是純粹的顛覆性消費和可自由支配支出正在轉移。

So as we look at '26, this is what gives us the confidence that we guided low-single to mid-single, which we think is going to be pretty much where the market is at overall. And we still believe we've got continued headroom on operating margins. We guide about another 1.5 points improvement year over year. Both of them are going to be accretive in contribution to IBM overall.

所以，展望 2026 年，正是這一點讓我們相信，我們先前給出的指導價為低個位數到中個位數，我們認為這大致就是整個市場的走勢。我們仍然相信，我們的營運利潤率還有提升空間。我們預計比上年再提高1.5個百分點。它們都將對IBM的整體業績產生正面影響。

How is that going to happen? One, I would put it in a handful of buckets. One, backlog realization and what we see; two, our Gen AI momentum and the rate and pace and growth and acceleration we're seeing; three, strategic partnership headroom that we still have; four, our portfolio composition we've been talking about is aligned to much more growth end markets -- higher growth end markets.

這要如何實現？第一，我會把它裝進幾個桶子裡。第一，積壓訂單的實現情況以及我們所看到的；第二，我們的人工智慧發展勢頭以及我們所看到的增長速度和速度；第三，我們仍然擁有的戰略合作夥伴關係空間；第四，我們一直在談論的投資組合構成與更多增長型終端市場——更高增長型終端市場——相一致。

Our portfolio is less around pure BPO. It's more around digital transformation, application modernization, AI, around data transformation, cybersecurity, governance. And then five, Mohammed and team, we've been doing a ton of work around reshaping our model to an asset-based services as software model with our industry-leading IBM Consulting advantage.

我們的業務組合併不完全圍繞著純粹的業務流程外包（BPO）。它更圍繞著數位轉型、應用現代化、人工智慧、數據轉型、網路安全和治理。第五，穆罕默德和他的團隊，我們一直在努力將我們的模式重塑為基於資產的軟體服務模式，並利用我們領先業界的 IBM 諮詢優勢。

So let me talk about just a couple of them to give you some math and statistics on why we feel confident. One, backlog, $32 billion, up 2% overall, but underpinning record low erosion, duration that has continued to come down. And our realization to your question, we see a realization out of that backlog that fully supports that low- to mid-single-digit growth, and we see it pretty much modestly growing throughout the year. So low-single digit first quarter and then growing throughout the year.

那麼，讓我舉幾個例子，用數學和統計數據來解釋為什麼我們會感到自信。第一，積壓訂單達 320 億美元，整體成長 2%，但支撐了創紀錄的低損耗率，而訂單持續時間仍在持續下降。至於您的問題，我們認為積壓訂單能夠完全支撐個位數低到中等的成長，而且我們預計全年都會保持較為溫和的成長。所以第一季成長率為個位數，然後全年持續成長。

Two, we added over 400 new clients this year, and that has improved our net new business contribution, as we've been talking about, by 8 points, which is having a higher revenue realization by 4 points year over year. So backlog composition and the acceleration is one aspect. GenAI is the second. GenAI now represents over a third of our bookings. over 25% of our backlog right now, $32 billion backlog and over 15% of our revenue on an exit run rate. We have a $3.6 billion ARR Gen AI revenue run rate in Consulting, and we see that continuing to accelerate.

第二，我們今年新增了 400 多位客戶，正如我們一直在談論的那樣，這使我們的淨新增業務貢獻提高了 8 個百分點，這意味著收入實現率比上年提高了 4 個百分點。因此，積壓工作的組成和加速是其中一個面向。GenAI是第二個。GenAI 目前占我們訂單量的三分之一以上，占我們積壓訂單的 25% 以上（積壓訂單總額達 320 億美元），按退出率計算，占我們收入的 15% 以上。我們在顧問業務中，人工智慧衍生產品（Gen AI）的年度經常性收入 (ARR) 已達 36 億美元，我們看到這一數字還在持續成長。

And then finally, the repositioning. We see more headroom on margin leverage, about 1.5 points as we go forward, and that's through productivity, portfolio mix. But we have to manage -- we are operating in a very aggressive pricing environment, and we'll continue monitoring that.

最後，就是重新定位。我們看到，隨著業務成長，槓桿率方面還有更大的提升空間，大約有 1.5 個百分點，這主要得益於生產力和投資組合的最佳化。但我們必須應對——我們身處競爭非常激烈的定價環境中，我們將繼續密切關注這一點。

Operator, next question.

操作員，下一個問題。

Eric Woodring, Morgan Stanley.

艾瑞克‧伍德林，摩根士丹利。

Arvind, a really strong infrastructure year, obviously, outstanding performance in Z. I think there's an argument to be made, and I hear from you that with the Telum II processor, given the amount of data and transactions on the mainframe, the mainframe can be an AI workhorse. You had really strong outperformance relative to your historical model in Z. You're guiding to a bit of infrastructure decline in 2026.

Arvind，今年基礎建設非常強勁，Z 語言表現特別出色。我認為可以這麼說，而且我也聽你說過，考慮到主機上的資料量和交易量，配備 Telum II 處理器的主機可以成為 AI 的主力軍。您在 Z 方面的業績遠遠超過歷史模型。您預測 2026 年基礎設施將略有下滑。

And so I'm just trying to understand, was there just some kind of different buying trends in 2025 and perhaps a bit of pull forward that was different than maybe past launches? Or could you just be a bit conservative as you look out into 2026? I know you cite cycle dynamics, but could you see some more sustainability in the infrastructure business in the z cycle that maybe isn't fully accounted for in the infrastructure guidance that you gave?

所以我想了解的是，2025 年的購買趨勢是否有所不同，以及是否存在一些與以往產品發布不同的提前購買趨勢？或者，展望 2026 年，您可以採取稍微保守一點的態度？我知道您提到了周期動態，但是您能否在 Z 週期中看到基礎設施業務的更多可持續性，而這些可持續性可能在您給出的基礎設施指導中沒有得到充分考慮？

Yeah. So Eric, as Jim actually explained in the answers to a few questions, we want to give guidance, and we want to be where we have incredibly high confidence that we can hit or beat those numbers. So let me just caution that all guidance we give is with that in mind.

是的。所以埃里克，正如吉姆在回答一些問題時所解釋的那樣，我們想提供指導，並且我們希望達到或超過這些數字，我們有非常高的信心。所以我要提醒大家，我們提供的所有指導都是基於這個前提。

Let me just actually go back to a few of the dynamics that are driving even stronger adoption of the mainframe. Let's point out, z17 has been the strongest start three quarters in. Before that, z16 was the strongest in about 20 years. Before that, z15 was better than '14, '13, and '12. So we have been on this continuing improvement.

讓我再回顧一下推動大型主機更廣泛應用的幾個因素。值得一提的是，z17 在賽季進行到四分之三時表現最為強勁。在此之前，z16 是近 20 年來最強的。在此之前，z15 比 '14、'13 和 '12 都要好。因此，我們一直在持續改進。

Let me point to, I think, at least three secular factors under it. Number one, there is a lot more demand for people to have -- we can use the word sovereignty or we can use the word on-premise control, which goes along with the economics of the mainframe platform. I think more and more clients have woken up to that for certain workloads, the mainframe is actually the lowest unit cost economics platform, and that is really important.

我認為，至少有三個世俗因素導致了這種情況。第一，人們對擁有自主權的需求大大增加——我們可以用「自主權」這個詞，或者我們可以用「本地控制」這個詞，這與大型主機平台的經濟效益相符。我認為越來越多的客戶已經意識到，對於某些工作負載而言，大型主機實際上是單位成本經濟性最低的平台，這一點非常重要。

Number two, the ding often is, well, but it's a very hard platform for our developers to use and for our operators to leverage. The Gen AI tools we have provided with the watson Code Assistant for Z really takes that onus away. It can refactor COBOL into Java. It can help people understand a code that is already running on the platform. It can help you refactor that code if you want to keep it exactly as it is. It can help you take things out. So that headwind of people saying this is a hard platform to modernize has gone away.

第二，叮噹聲通常是，嗯，但是對於我們的開發人員來說，這是一個非常難用的平台，對於我們的運營商來說，這是一個非常難利用的平台。我們為 Watson Code Assistant for Z 提供的 Gen AI 工具確實減輕了這種負擔。它可以將 COBOL 程式碼重構為 Java 程式碼。它可以幫助人們理解已經在平台上運行的程式碼。如果你想保持程式碼原樣，它可以幫助你重構程式碼。它可以幫你把東西拿出來。因此，之前人們認為這是一個難以現代化的平台的阻力已經消失了。

That then comes to your AI capabilities. You're right. I'm incredibly excited by our ability to do AI right in line. If you can do it right in line with the transactions, that's a milliseconds delay as opposed to multiple seconds if you take it off platform, which is how people have been doing it so far.

這就牽涉到你的人工智慧能力了。你說得對。我對我們能夠及時有效地運用人工智慧感到無比興奮。如果能在交易過程中及時處理，延遲只有幾毫秒，而如果像目前人們那樣在平台外處理，延遲則會達到幾秒。

That capability, while we introduced it in the beginning of 2025, really came to market only in the fourth quarter of 2025. So I do expect, and we look forward to helping our clients install that. And a very large number of our clients actually told us they're interested and they kept space in the machines to put in those cards. We call them the Spire cards or you can think of it as the Gen AI card, which gives you all that capability.

雖然我們在 2025 年初就推出了這項功能，但直到 2025 年第四季才真正推向市場。因此，我預計，我們也期待幫助我們的客戶安裝這項服務。很多客戶都告訴我們他們對此感興趣，並且他們在機器裡預留了空間來插入這些卡片。我們稱它們為 Spire 卡，或者你可以把它看作是 Gen AI 卡，它賦予你所有這些功能。

As those cards go in, then the software stack to support that goes in. But we also have to give help to our clients to let the models run on the platform and to get their use cases up and going. I expect that will take some months to happen, but that does provide possible tailwinds against some of the dynamics that both Jim and I have explained.

當這些卡片插入後，支援這些卡片的軟體堆疊也會隨之插入。但我們也必須幫助我們的客戶，讓他們能夠在平台上運行模型，並啟動和運行他們的用例。我預計這需要幾個月的時間才能實現，但這確實可能對吉姆和我解釋過的某些動態提供有利因素。

Great. Operator, let's take one last question.

偉大的。操作員，我們來回答最後一個問題。

Matt Swanson, RBC.

Matt Swanson，RBC。

Great. Arvind, if I can maybe take a more holistic view of part of your answer you just said. So I mean, as you were talking about, there's been a lot more conversations right now about where enterprise Gen AI workload should reside. And it really feels like that conversation is the intersection of your dual pillars of AI and hybrid cloud.

偉大的。Arvind，如果我能更全面地看待你剛才回答中的部分內容的話。所以我的意思是，正如你剛才所說，現在有很多關於企業級人工智慧工作負載應該放在哪裡的討論。感覺這場對話正是你們人工智慧和混合雲這兩大支柱的交會點。

So when looking at the strength of the refresh cycle, as you mentioned, but also the strength in demand for the data segment, the automation segment or conversations in Consulting. What do you think combining all these things says about the current state of enterprise transformation for Gen AI maybe today and heading into '26?

因此，如您所提到的，在考察刷新週期的強度時，也要檢視資料領域、自動化領域或諮詢對話的需求強度。您認為將所有這些因素結合起來，能說明當今以及展望 2026 年，Gen AI 企業轉型現狀如何？

Matt, thanks. And thank you for that question because it is one, as you can imagine, that we both think about a lot and then play out the various scenarios. So let's look at Gen AI so far.

馬特，謝謝。謝謝你的提問，因為正如你所想，我們倆都對這個問題思考了很多，並且設想了各種可能的情況。那麼讓我們來看看迄今為止的人工智慧發展歷程。

Gen AI so far has largely been a consumer topic. People use chatbots, people use it to improve their e-mails. People are using it to improve document writing. Half the videos, if I believe the statistic I read are now generated with the help of AI. I'm not saying only AI, but with the help of AI. All of that tends to be AI that is running on a hyperscaler public cloud somewhere and that people go leverage.

迄今為止，人工智慧世代主要還是一個消費話題。人們使用聊天機器人，人們用它來改進電子郵件。人們正在使用它來改進文件寫作。如果我看到的數據屬實，那麼現在有一半的影片都是藉助人工智慧產生的。我不是說只有人工智慧，而是藉助人工智慧。所有這些都是運行在某個超大規模公有雲上的人工智慧，人們可以利用這些人工智慧。

As we look forward now to the enterprise, I am convinced this is an end world. I'm not saying that the hyperscaler public model usage is going to decline, but the enterprise is going to get concerned with how much of -- not the data. I don't think people are going to steal data, though that has happened a few times. But I do think that there is going to be a lot of concern around the nature of what are the models learning from answering these questions and do we really want to share that with everybody else or not?

展望未來，我確信這將是一個末日世界。我並不是說超大規模公共模式的使用率會下降，而是企業會關注的是資料量，而不是資料本身。我不認為人們會竊取數據，儘管這種情況發生過幾次。但我認為，人們會非常關注模型透過回答這些問題究竟學到了什麼，以及我們是否真的想與其他人分享這些資訊？

There is going to be issues around sovereignty on the usage of these models, and there is going to be questions around just basic privacy. Hey, this is not data that we want to take anywhere else.

使用這些模型會涉及主權問題，也會涉及基本的隱私問題。嘿，我們不想把這些數據帶到其他地方。

So I take that into -- I believe if I look out three to five years, 50% of the enterprise usage of AI is going to be in either a private cloud or it's going to be in their own data centers. And the other 50% is going to be usage of public models.

所以我把這一點考慮進去——我相信，如果展望未來三到五年，50%的企業人工智慧使用將會在私有雲或他們自己的資料中心進行。剩下的 50% 將用於使用公共模型。

Now there's also an efficiency question. So if what's being used on-premise is smaller models, then actually it could be that 80% to 90% of all the inferencing is really in a private/on-premise and 10% of the inferencing is on a public, but that 10% could be at 5 to 10 times the price and hence, the dollars sort of even out. We see this playing out really importantly over the next three to five years. And that is why we've been positioning very strongly.

現在還有一個效率問題。因此，如果本地部署的是較小的模型，那麼實際上 80% 到 90% 的推理都在私有/本地環境中進行，只有 10% 的推理在公共環境中進行，但這 10% 的推理成本可能是公共環境的 5 到 10 倍，因此，最終的成本基本上持平。我們認為這將在未來三到五年內產生非常重要的影響。正因如此，我們才一直保持著非常強大的市場地位。

We use the word sovereign or sovereignty for how people want to manage their technology. We announced a sovereign core offering last week to help get this done. But we do believe that this is going to play out. The mainframe is an important element, but not the only element in that story. So it's an end. Matt sorry, a really long answer, but this is what is going to play out over the next three to five years.

我們用「主權」或「自主權」來描述人們希望如何管理他們的技術。我們上周宣布了一項主權核心債券發行計劃，以幫助完成這項工作。但我們相信這件事最終會得到解決。主機是重要元素，但並非故事中的唯一元素。一切都結束了。馬特，抱歉，回答有點長，但這就是未來三到五年內將會發生的事情。

So thank you all for all of these questions. As you can see, we have been excited about our year and the changes we have made to our business over the last few years and our performance in 2025 reinforce our confidence on the next chapter of our growth. We look forward to continuing this dialogue through the year.

謝謝大家提出的所有問題。正如您所看到的，我們對過去一年以及過去幾年我們對業務所做的改變感到非常興奮，而我們對 2025 年的業績也增強了我們對下一階段成長的信心。我們期待在今年繼續開展這項對話。

Thank you, Arvind. Operator, let me turn it back to you to close out the call.

謝謝你，阿文德。接線員，我把電話轉回給您，結束通話。

Thank you for participating on today's call. The conference has now ended. You may disconnect at this time.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。會議已經結束。您現在可以斷開連線了。