IBM 2025 年第一季財報強調了強勁的財務業績,重點在於營收成長、獲利能力和現金流產生。該公司的成功歸功於其圍繞混合雲和人工智慧的策略,以及軟體和經常性收入的成長。 IBM 對其應對經濟不確定性和實現今年成長目標的能力仍然充滿信心。
該公司討論了其向以軟體為中心的模式的策略重新定位,重點是加速軟體收入成長並向長期成長者轉型。 IBM 回答了有關其財務指導、貨幣貶值的影響以及紅帽業務的表現的問題。他們強調注重透明度、對營運績效的控制以及推動嚴格的執行以實現成長目標。
IBM 對其成長前景持樂觀態度,尤其是在虛擬化、人工智慧、自動化和貨櫃化領域,並對其資本結構和流動性狀況充滿信心。該公司致力於透過其多樣化的產品組合和良好的執行記錄創造長期競爭優勢並為客戶創造價值。
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Operator
Operator
Welcome, and thank you for standing by. (Operator Instructions) Today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) Now I will turn the meeting over to Olympia McNerney, IBM's Global Head of Investor Relations. Olympia, you may begin.
歡迎您,感謝您的支持。(操作員指示)今天的會議正在錄製。(操作員指示)現在我將會議交給 IBM 全球投資者關係主管 Olympia McNerney。奧林匹亞,你可以開始了。
Olympia McNerney - Global Head of Investor relations
Olympia McNerney - Global Head of Investor relations
Thank you. I'd like to welcome you to IBM's first quarter 2025 earnings presentation. I'm Olympia McNerney, and I'm here today with Arvind Krishna, IBM's Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Jim Kavanaugh, IBM's Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.
謝謝。歡迎大家參加 IBM 2025 年第一季財報。我是 Olympia McNerney,今天和我一起來這裡的還有 IBM 董事長、總裁兼執行長 Arvind Krishna;以及 IBM 高級副總裁兼財務長 Jim Kavanaugh。
We'll post today's prepared remarks on the IBM investor website within a couple of hours, and a replay will be available by this time tomorrow. To provide additional information to our investors, our presentation includes certain non-GAAP measures.
我們將在幾個小時內將今天的準備好的演講稿發佈在 IBM 投資者網站上,明天此時將提供重播。為了向我們的投資者提供更多信息,我們的簡報中包含了某些非 GAAP 指標。
For example, all of our references to revenue and signings growth are at constant currency. We've provided reconciliation charts for these and other non-GAAP financial measures at the end of the presentation, which is posted to our investor website.
例如,我們對營收和簽約成長的所有提及均採用固定匯率計算。我們在簡報的最後提供了這些和其他非 GAAP 財務指標的對帳圖表,並發佈在我們的投資者網站上。
Finally, some comments made in this presentation may be considered forward-looking under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements involve factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially. Additional information about these factors is included in the company's SEC filings.
最後,根據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》,本簡報中的某些評論可能被視為前瞻性的。這些聲明涉及可能導致我們的實際結果大不相同的因素。有關這些因素的更多資訊包含在該公司提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中。
So with that, I'll turn the call over to Arvind.
因此,我將把電話轉給 Arvind。
Arvind Krishna - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Arvind Krishna - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you for joining us today. We are off to a strong start in 2025, exceeding our expectations for the quarter, driven by solid revenue growth, profitability and cash flow generation. While sentiment and the operating environment have been rapidly shifting, our performance reflects the continued success of our focused strategy around hybrid cloud and AI, especially where clients are looking for cost savings, productivity gains and trusted partners to help them move fast and scale. Those needs remain front and center in today's market.
感謝您今天加入我們。在穩健的營收成長、獲利能力和現金流產生的推動下,我們在 2025 年取得了強勁開局,超出了我們對本季的預期。儘管市場情緒和營運環境一直在快速變化,但我們的業績反映了我們圍繞混合雲和人工智慧的重點策略的持續成功,特別是在客戶尋求成本節約、生產力提高和值得信賴的合作夥伴以幫助他們快速發展和擴大規模的情況下。這些需求在當今市場仍然是最重要的。
Before going deeper into our results, let me start by saying that we appreciate the administration's focus on economic growth and rational regulation which will strengthen the US competitive position. We believe this will result in long-term value creation and make it easier for technology to contribute to economic growth. I'm going to now talk about our results for the quarter and then address the macro and how we are positioning within these conditions.
在深入探討我們的研究結果之前,我首先要說的是,我們讚賞政府對經濟成長和合理監管的關注,這將增強美國的競爭地位。我們相信這將帶來長期價值創造,並使技術更容易促進經濟成長。我現在要談談我們本季的業績,然後再討論宏觀問題以及我們在這些條件下的定位。
Our performance this quarter reflects the flywheel for growth we discussed at our Investor Day. It all starts with client trust with a 100-plus year history of delivering mission-critical solutions and navigating different operating environments.
我們本季的業績反映了我們在投資者日討論的成長飛輪。一切始於客戶信任,我們擁有 100 多年提供關鍵任務解決方案和應對不同營運環境的歷史。
Trust is complemented by the flexible solutions we offer in hybrid cloud and AI, the innovation value we provide, our domain expertise to help clients digitally transform and scale AI, and our partner ecosystem to broaden our reach and impact.
我們在混合雲和人工智慧領域提供的靈活解決方案、我們提供的創新價值、我們幫助客戶實現人工智慧數位轉型和擴展的領域專業知識,以及我們擴大影響力和覆蓋範圍的合作夥伴生態系統,都為信任提供了補充。
We saw these play out in the first quarter. Our growth was led by Software, up 9% with strength across Red Hat, Automation, Data and Transaction Processing. Our early leadership in generative AI and the Consulting Advantage platform using digital assets to deliver client value have positioned us well in today's evolving market. In infrastructure, z16 is our most successful program in history, highlighting customer adoption and the value proposition of the mainframe.
我們在第一季就看到了這些情況。我們的成長主要由軟體推動,成長了 9%,主要得益於紅帽、自動化、數據和交易處理的強勁成長。我們在生成人工智慧領域的早期領導地位以及使用數位資產來提供客戶價值的諮詢優勢平台使我們在當今不斷發展的市場中佔據了有利地位。在基礎設施方面,z16 是我們歷史上最成功的項目,凸顯了客戶採用和大型主機的價值主張。
In generative AI, we continue to see strong traction. Our book of business is now over $6 billion inception to date, up over $1 billion in the quarter. Approximately 1/5 of this book of business comes from Software, and the remaining 4/5 is Consulting. This is similar to last quarter. The AI portfolio we have built is designed to give clients a comprehensive set of tools to deploy AI within their enterprise.
在生成人工智慧領域,我們持續看到強勁的發展勢頭。到目前為止,我們的業務額已超過 60 億美元,本季成長超過 10 億美元。該業務約有 1/5 來自軟體產業,其餘 4/5 為顧問業。這與上一季類似。我們建構的 AI 產品組合旨在為客戶提供一套全面的工具,以便在企業內部部署 AI。
In software, the ability to deploy our AI assistants and agents as well as AI middleware in a hybrid environment, leveraging multimodal capabilities is resonating with clients. AI agents will accelerate the ability of many enterprises to turn the promise of generative AI into real value.
在軟體方面,我們在混合環境中部署人工智慧助理和代理以及人工智慧中間件,利用多模式功能的能力引起了客戶的共鳴。人工智慧代理將加速許多企業將生成人工智慧的承諾轉化為實際價值的能力。
Consulting is helping clients design and deploy AI strategies and use cases. We continue to see our infrastructure segment play a larger role as clients bring AI to their data. Our clients will see these solutions at length at our client conference, Think in early May in Boston.
諮詢正在幫助客戶設計和部署人工智慧策略和用例。隨著客戶將人工智慧引入其數據,我們繼續看到我們的基礎設施部門發揮更大的作用。我們的客戶將在 5 月初於波士頓舉行的客戶會議 Think 上詳細了解這些解決方案。
We remain focused on accelerating innovation speed and impact. Earlier this month, we announced the upcoming launch of z17, which delivers enhanced AI acceleration through multimodal AI capabilities, new security features to protect data, and tools that leverage AI for improving system usability.
我們始終致力於加快創新速度和影響力。本月初,我們宣布即將推出 z17,它透過多模式 AI 功能提供增強的 AI 加速、保護資料的新安全功能以及利用 AI 提高系統可用性的工具。
z17's value proposition particularly resonated with clients, given significantly lower power requirements, higher capacity growth and increased performance over z16. In Quantum, we are proud to partner with the Bask government to deploy Europe's first IBM Quantum System Two in Spain, a milestone in global quantum leadership. M&A remains a key enabler of our strategy.
z17 的價值主張尤其引起了客戶的共鳴,因為與 z16 相比,它的功率需求明顯更低、容量成長更快、效能也更強。在量子領域,我們很榮幸與巴斯克政府合作,在西班牙部署歐洲首個 IBM Quantum System Two,這是全球量子領導的里程碑。併購仍然是我們策略的關鍵推動因素。
This quarter, we closed the acquisitions of HashiCorp and AST. HashiCorp brings leading automation and security tools that integrate with our hybrid cloud strategy, and we're excited about the synergy opportunities ahead. Let me now touch on the macro environment.
本季度,我們完成了 HashiCorp 和 AST 的收購。HashiCorp 帶來了與我們的混合雲策略相結合的領先自動化和安全工具,我們對未來的協同機會感到興奮。現在讓我談談宏觀環境。
Technology remains a key competitive advantage, allowing businesses to drive cost efficiencies, productivity and preserve their balance sheets. In the near term, uncertainty may cause clients to pause and take a wait-and-see approach.
技術仍然是一項關鍵的競爭優勢,它使企業能夠提高成本效率、生產力並維持資產負債表。短期內,不確定性可能會導致客戶暫停並採取觀望態度。
However, the value of hybrid cloud, automation, data sovereignty, and on-premise solutions becomes even more critical in volatile windows. Recent conversations that I've had with clients reflect this view of the current environment.
然而,在動盪的時期,混合雲、自動化、資料主權和內部部署解決方案的價值變得更加重要。我最近與客戶的對話反映了對當前環境的這種看法。
These conversations vary by industry, business and geography. For example, our containerization and virtualization pipeline continues to grow, with clients focused not only on near-term costs but also longer-term savings driven by our modernization capabilities. There are also areas of our business where volatility acts as a catalyst for demand, driving increased capacity requirements particularly across our mainframe environments.
這些對話因行業、業務和地理而異。例如,我們的貨櫃化和虛擬化管道不斷增長,客戶不僅關注短期成本,還關注由我們的現代化能力推動的長期節約。在我們的業務中,波動性也成為需求的催化劑,推動了容量需求的增加,尤其是在我們的大型主機環境中。
This played out over the last couple of weeks amongst our financial services clients. However, for clients with a more direct impact from current policy, the slowdown may be more pronounced. Consulting is also more susceptible to discretionary pullbacks and DOGE-related initiatives. While no one is immune to uncertainty, we entered this environment from a position of relative strength and resiliency. Our clients run the world's most essential processes.
過去幾週,這種情況在我們的金融服務客戶中不斷上演。然而,對於受到當前政策更直接影響的客戶來說,經濟放緩可能會更加明顯。諮詢業也更容易受到自由裁量權回檔和 DOGE 相關措施的影響。雖然沒有人能夠免受不確定性的影響,但我們以相對優勢和彈性進入了這個環境。我們的客戶運行著世界上最重要的流程。
Our diversity across businesses, geographies, industries, and large enterprise clients position us well to navigate the current climate. We have an experienced team that is focused on areas we can control, around our supply chain, accelerating our productivity initiatives, and maintaining the strength of our balance sheet. With this backdrop, let me touch on our outlook.
我們的業務、地理、行業和大型企業客戶的多樣性使我們能夠很好地應對當前的環境。我們擁有一支經驗豐富的團隊,專注於我們可以控制的領域,圍繞我們的供應鏈,加速我們的生產力計劃,並保持我們的資產負債表的強勁。在此背景下,讓我談談我們的展望。
For the last several years, we have been strengthening our portfolio and building on our track record of execution and our outperformance this quarter was another proof point. While it is still very early in the second quarter, we have not seen a material change in client buying behavior.
過去幾年來,我們一直在加強我們的投資組合,並鞏固我們的執行記錄,本季的優異表現就是另一個證明。雖然現在還處於第二季初期,但我們尚未看到客戶購買行為發生重大變化。
With the caveat that the macro situation is fluid, based on what we know today, we are maintaining our full year guidance for accelerating revenue growth to 5%-plus and about $13.5 billion of free cash flow. Over the longer term, I am confident in our ability to deliver on our model presented at Investor Day for sustainable higher revenue growth and strong free cash flow.
儘管宏觀情勢瞬息萬變,但根據我們目前掌握的情況,我們仍維持全年預期,即營收成長加速至 5% 以上,自由現金流約為 135 億美元。從長遠來看,我相信我們有能力實現投資者日提出的可持續更高收入成長和強勁自由現金流的模式。
With that, I'll turn it over to Jim to walk through the financials. Jim, over to you.
說完這些,我會把責任交給吉姆來介紹財務狀況。吉姆,交給你了。
James Kavanaugh - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance and Operations
James Kavanaugh - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance and Operations
Thanks, Arvind. In the first quarter, we delivered $14.5 billion in revenue, $3.4 billion of adjusted EBITDA, $1.7 billion of operating pretax income and operating earnings per share of $1.60. And we generated $2 billion of free cash flow, our highest first quarter free cash flow in many years.
謝謝,Arvind。第一季度,我們的營收為 145 億美元,調整後 EBITDA 為 34 億美元,稅前營業收入為 17 億美元,每股營業收益為 1.60 美元。我們產生了 20 億美元的自由現金流,這是我們多年來第一季最高的自由現金流。
Our revenue growth, scale and accelerating productivity drove 240 basis points of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion and 12% adjusted EBITDA growth. We exceeded our expectations on revenue, profitability, adjusted EBITDA, and earnings per share.
我們的營收成長、規模和生產力的加速推動調整後 EBITDA 利潤率擴大 240 個基點,調整後 EBITDA 成長 12%。我們在營收、獲利能力、調整後 EBITDA 和每股盈餘方面都超出了我們的預期。
Our revenue for the quarter was up 2% at constant currency. As we discussed at our Investor Day, our mix shift towards software is driving growth. We saw this play out in the quarter with Software up 9%, driven by growth of 15% in Automation, 13% in Red Hat, 7% in Data and 2% in Transaction Processing.
以固定匯率計算,本季我們的營收成長了 2%。正如我們在投資者日所討論的那樣,我們向軟體的組合轉變正在推動成長。我們在本季看到了這一情況,軟體成長了 9%,其中自動化成長了 15%,紅帽成長了 13%,資料成長了 7%,交易處理成長了 2%。
This performance reflects demand for our focused portfolio that provides end-to-end hybrid cloud and AI capabilities. Red Hat delivered another strong quarter, driven by bookings growth in the high teens.
這一表現反映了我們對提供端到端混合雲端和人工智慧功能的重點產品組合的需求。紅帽公司又一個季度表現強勁,得益於預訂量高位成長。
And OpenShift is now at $1.5 billion ARR, growing about 25%. About 6 points of our growth in software was organic, with contribution from our generative AI products like our AI assistants and agents and watsonx platform.
OpenShift 目前的 ARR 為 15 億美元,成長約 25%。我們的軟體業務大約有 6 個百分點的成長是有機的,這得益於我們的生成式人工智慧產品,例如我們的人工智慧助理和代理商以及 watsonx 平台。
We also benefited from our high-value recurring revenue base, which comprises about 80% of our annual software revenue. Software's annual recurring revenue grew to $21.7 billion, up 11% since last year. Consulting revenue was flat and a sequential growth improvement quarter-to-quarter with solid backlog growth of mid-single digit.
我們也受惠於高價值的經常性收入基礎,該收入約占我們年度軟體收入的 80%。軟體的年度經常性收入成長至 217 億美元,比去年同期成長 11%。諮詢收入持平,季增改善,積壓訂單量穩健成長,達到中位數個位數。
Strategy and Technology revenue declined 1% and Intelligent Operations revenue was flat for the quarter. While we are seeing clients delayed decision-making, especially in discretionary projects which impacted our in-period signings, we had good growth in transformational offerings like hybrid cloud and data as well as application management and cloud platform engineering services.
本季策略與技術收入下降 1%,智慧營運收入持平。雖然我們看到客戶推遲了決策,特別是在影響我們期間簽約的自由裁量項目中,但我們在混合雲和數據以及應用程式管理和雲端平台工程服務等轉型產品方面取得了良好的成長。
We also continue to build our Consulting generative AI book of business, which is now over $5 billion inception to date. Infrastructure revenue declined 4%. Hybrid Infrastructure was down 7%, driven by IBM Z down 14% as we wrapped on the 12th and final quarter of the z16 program, which delivered strong performance in both revenue and capacity.
我們也將繼續拓展我們的諮詢生成式人工智慧業務,迄今為止該業務的規模已超過 50 億美元。基礎設施收入下降4%。混合基礎設施下降了 7%,其中 IBM Z 下降了 14%,因為我們結束了 z16 專案的第 12 個季度,也是最後一個季度,該專案在收入和容量方面都表現強勁。
Distributed Infrastructure revenue was down 4% with product cycle dynamics impacting power, while storage delivered another quarter of double-digit growth as our latest innovations continue to address the rising data demands of our clients.
分散式基礎設施收入下降了 4%,因為產品週期動態影響了電力,而儲存又實現了兩位數的成長,因為我們的最新創新繼續滿足客戶不斷增長的數據需求。
Now turning to profitability. In the current environment, we are focused on taking action to control things we can to protect supply chain, margin, and free cash flow. IBM has been driving a productivity mindset for many years. And this quarter's margin performance reflects that intentional discipline and our flexibility of our operating model.
現在轉向獲利能力。在當前環境下,我們專注於採取行動控制我們能控制的事情,以保護供應鏈、利潤和自由現金流。IBM 多年來一直致力於推動生產力思維。本季的利潤率表現反映了我們刻意的紀律和營運模式的靈活性。
During the quarter, operating leverage and yields from accelerated productivity initiatives drove expansion of operating gross profit margin of 190 basis points, adjusted EBITDA margin of 240 basis points, and operating pretax margin of 50 basis points.
本季度,經營槓桿和加速生產力措施帶來的收益推動經營毛利率擴大 190 個基點,調整後 EBITDA 利潤率擴大 240 個基點,經營稅前利潤率擴大 50 個基點。
Excluding year-over-year divestiture dynamics and net year-to-year workforce rebalancing, operating pretax margin was up 180 basis points, ahead of our expectations and well above our model. We delivered very strong segment profit margin expansion in Software and Consulting of over 370 basis points and 280 basis points, respectively, while Infrastructure was down about 150 basis points, reflecting product cycle dynamics and continued investments in innovation.
不計入同比資產剝離動態和同比淨勞動力再平衡,營業稅前利潤率上漲了 180 個基點,超出了我們的預期,也遠高於我們的模型。軟體和顧問業務的分部利潤率分別實現了超過 370 個基點和 280 個基點的強勁增長,而基礎設施業務的利潤率則下降了約 150 個基點,這反映了產品週期動態和對創新的持續投資。
Let me give you some more color on our productivity initiatives. As discussed at our Investor Day, we remain laser-focused on accelerating our productivity initiatives. We are transforming our enterprise operation, leveraging technology and embedding AI across more than 70 workflows, such as HR, IT support, procurement, finance, quote-to-cash and more.
讓我向您詳細介紹一下我們的生產力舉措。正如我們在投資者日所討論的那樣,我們仍然專注於加速我們的生產力計劃。我們正在轉變企業運營,利用技術並將人工智慧嵌入人力資源、IT 支援、採購、財務、報價到現金等 70 多個工作流程中。
We have built a best-in-class enterprise IT platform, leveraging our own IBM software solutions across hybrid cloud, automation and AI, decreased our vendor spend by more than $1 billion by optimizing our supply chain and service delivery and rightsized our physical infrastructure.
我們建立了一流的企業 IT 平台,利用我們自己的 IBM 軟體解決方案,涵蓋混合雲、自動化和人工智慧,透過優化我們的供應鏈和服務交付,減少了超過 10 億美元的供應商支出,並調整了我們的實體基礎設施。
We exited 2024 at $3.5 billion of annual run rate savings achieved. And we continue to see these efforts play out in our margin performance this quarter. These actions create a flywheel that allows us to invest back in our business, both organically and inorganically, increase our financial flexibility and deliver margin expansion, our ability to toggle these actions up or down, depending on the operating environment and significant flexibility to our financial model.
到 2024 年,我們實現了每年 35 億美元的運行率節省。我們繼續看到這些努力在本季的利潤表現中發揮作用。這些行動創造了一個飛輪,使我們能夠以有機和無機的方式重新投資於我們的業務,提高我們的財務靈活性並實現利潤率擴張,我們能夠根據營運環境和財務模型的極大靈活性來增加或減少這些行動。
The combination of our revenue scale and productivity enabled solid contribution to free cash flow generation. In the quarter, we generated $2 billion of free cash flow, up $100 million year-over-year, resulting in our highest first quarter free cash flow margin in reported history.
我們的收入規模和生產力的結合為自由現金流的產生做出了堅實的貢獻。本季度,我們產生了 20 億美元的自由現金流,比去年同期增加了 1 億美元,創下了報告歷史上第一季自由現金流利潤率的最高紀錄。
The largest driver of this growth comes from adjusted EBITDA, up over $350 million year-over-year. Partially offsetting this, given global trade dynamics, we proactively took actions to bolster our supply chain ahead of our z17 launch, resulting in higher inventory levels. Despite these actions, we are a couple of points ahead of our three-year average attainment levels through the first quarter.
這一成長的最大動力來自調整後的 EBITDA,年增超過 3.5 億美元。為了部分抵消這一影響,考慮到全球貿易動態,我們在 z17 發布之前積極採取行動加強供應鏈,從而提高庫存水準。儘管採取了這些行動,但截至第一季度,我們仍比三年平均高出幾個百分點。
Let me briefly address our supply chain dynamics. As Arvind mentioned, IBM has a long track record of operating globally and managing supply chain complexity. Over the last several years, we have strategically diversified and streamlined our supply chain. Goods imported to the US represent less than 5% of our overall spend, and under current US tariff policy, the impact to IBM is minimal.
讓我簡單介紹一下我們的供應鏈動態。正如 Arvind 所提到的,IBM 在全球營運和管理供應鏈複雜性方面擁有悠久的歷史。在過去的幾年中,我們策略性地實現了供應鏈的多元化和精簡。進口到美國的商品占我們總支出的不到 5%,根據目前的美國關稅政策,對 IBM 的影響微乎其微。
While we have limited direct exposure outside the United States, we are tactically evaluating alternative sources and other strategy to mitigate tariffs. We continue to maintain a strong liquidity position, solid investment-grade balance sheet and a disciplined capital allocation policy.
雖然我們在美國以外的直接業務有限,但我們正在策略性地評估替代來源和其他策略來減輕關稅。我們持續維持強勁的流動性狀況、穩健的投資等級資產負債表和嚴格的資本配置政策。
We ended the quarter with cash of $17.6 billion, which is up $2.8 billion from the end of 2024, including spending $7.1 billion in acquisitions, driven largely by the closing of HashiCorp. In February, we accessed the debt markets, raising over $8 billion on attractive terms.
截至本季末,我們的現金為 176 億美元,比 2024 年底增加了 28 億美元,其中包括 71 億美元的收購支出,這主要得益於 HashiCorp 的關閉。2月份,我們進入債務市場,以優惠條件籌集了超過80億美元的資金。
Our debt balance ending the quarter was over $63 billion, including $10 billion of debt for our financing business, with a receivables portfolio that is over 75% investment grade. In addition, we returned just over $1.5 billion to shareholders in the form of dividends.
截至本季末,我們的債務餘額超過 630 億美元,其中包括 100 億美元的融資業務債務,應收帳款組合的投資等級超過 75%。此外,我們也以股利的形式向股東返還了超過15億美元。
Now let me talk about what we see going forward. As everyone knows, there is a level of macro uncertainty that exists and is hard to predict. That said, we are operating from a position of relative strength. The combination of our repositioned and focused portfolio, investment in innovation and our diversity across businesses, geographies, industries and large enterprise clients positions us to perform in a variety of macro scenarios.
現在讓我來談談我們對未來的展望。眾所周知,宏觀不確定性是存在的,而且很難預測。儘管如此,我們仍處於相對強勢的地位。我們重新定位和重點突出的投資組合、對創新的投資以及跨業務、跨地區、跨行業和大型企業客戶的多樣性,使我們能夠在各種宏觀情景中發揮作用。
Our flywheel for growth begins with the incumbency and trust we have with clients from decades on the ground in over 175 countries, which is a real point of differentiation in the current environment. Our client base is diverse, operating across almost 20 industries, spanning 95% of the Fortune 500.
我們的成長飛輪始於我們數十年來在 175 多個國家/地區與客戶建立的合作關係和信任,這是當前環境下的真正差異點。我們的客戶群多種多樣,涉及近 20 個產業,涵蓋財富 500 強企業的 95%。
Based on what we know today, we are maintaining our full year guidance for accelerating revenue growth of 5%-plus and about $13.5 billion of free cash flow. Let me go through the drivers of these key metrics.
根據我們目前掌握的信息,我們維持全年營收成長 5% 以上的預期,自由現金流約為 135 億美元。讓我來介紹一下這些關鍵指標的驅動因素。
As discussed at our Investor Day, our mix shift towards Software is a key driver of our growth acceleration. Software is now about 45% of our business with 80% recurring revenue. As a reminder, in the first quarter, we generated $21.7 billion of ARR, growing 11%.
正如我們在投資者日所討論的那樣,我們向軟體的轉變是我們成長加速的關鍵驅動力。軟體現在占我們業務的 45% 左右,其中 80% 為經常性收入。提醒一下,第一季度,我們創造了 217 億美元的 ARR,成長了 11%。
The combination of our portfolio strength, investment in innovation and contribution from acquisitions should drive our full year performance in Software. And we continue to expect mid-teens growth for Red Hat, underpinned by six-month revenue under contract, which is growing in the mid-teens.
我們的投資組合實力、創新投資和收購貢獻相結合,將推動我們全年軟體業務的表現。我們繼續預期紅帽將實現中等程度的成長,這得益於合約規定的六個月收入將實現中等程度的成長。
In Consulting, we are encouraged by this quarter's sequential growth in revenue. Our solid backlog up 6% and our book of business in GenAI. But given the current environment, we are appropriately more cautious on Consulting's contribution to IBM this year.
在諮詢業務方面,本季營收的連續成長令我們感到鼓舞。我們的固定積壓訂單增加了 6%,並且我們的業務簿在 GenAI 中。但考慮到當前的環境,我們對諮詢業務今年對 IBM 的貢獻持更加謹慎的態度。
With our new mainframe launch, innovation across the portfolio and capacity dynamics that could benefit our mainframe environments and storage needs, we expect infrastructure to grow. While we feel good about the core growth drivers of our business, there are areas of our portfolio that could see greater variability in the event that the macroeconomic environment deteriorates.
隨著我們新大型主機的推出、產品組合的創新以及可能有利於我們的大型主機環境和儲存需求的容量動態,我們預計基礎設施將會成長。雖然我們對業務的核心成長動力感到滿意,但如果宏觀經濟環境惡化,我們投資組合中的某些領域可能會出現更大的波動。
This includes Consulting, which is more sensitive to discretionary pullbacks and DOGE-related initiatives, consumption-based services and software, including in Red Hat, and areas of Distributed Infrastructure. We continue to expect IBM's full year operating pretax margin to expand by over 0.5 point, driven by productivity initiatives, revenue scale and mix mitigated by the impact of dilution from acquisitions.
這包括對自由裁量回檔和 DOGE 相關措施更為敏感的諮詢、基於消費的服務和軟體(包括 Red Hat)以及分散式基礎設施領域。我們仍預期 IBM 全年營業稅前利潤率將成長 0.5 個百分點以上,這得益於生產力措施、收入規模和產品組合,以及收購稀釋的影響。
And our tax rate expectation for the year remains in the mid-teens. As always, the timing of discrete items can cause the rate to vary within the year. For free cash flow, we expect to generate about $13.5 billion in 2025, driven primarily by growth in adjusted EBITDA.
我們對今年的稅率預期仍將維持在十五六個百分點。與往常一樣,離散項目的時間可能會導致利率在一年內發生變化。對於自由現金流,我們預計 2025 年將產生約 135 億美元,主要受調整後 EBITDA 成長的推動。
The headwinds I discussed last quarter of higher cash taxes and higher CapEx remain the same. As I mentioned earlier, we have been accelerating our productivity initiatives to plan for various scenarios and to protect our profitability and free cash flow.
我上個季度討論過的現金稅增加和資本支出增加的不利因素仍然存在。正如我之前提到的,我們一直在加快生產力計劃,以應對各種情況並保護我們的盈利能力和自由現金流。
As we look forward to the rest of the year, we will remain disciplined about managing our cost. The strength of our balance sheet and strong liquidity position allow us to make investments in our business for the longer term. As Arvind mentioned, while still early, through the first three weeks of the second quarter, we have not seen any material change in client buying behaviors.
展望今年剩餘時間,我們將繼續嚴格管理成本。我們強勁的資產負債表和流動性狀況使我們能夠對我們的業務進行長期投資。正如 Arvind 所提到的,雖然還處於早期階段,但在第二季的前三週,我們還沒有看到客戶購買行為有任何實質變化。
We expect revenue growth of at least 4% at constant currency, and given the increased currency volatility, a revenue range of $16.4 billion to $16.75 billion. And second quarter operating pretax margin expansion should be consistent with the full year with our tax rate in the mid- to high teens.
我們預計,以固定匯率計算,收入成長至少 4%,並考慮到貨幣波動性的增加,收入範圍將在 164 億美元至 167.5 億美元之間。第二季營業稅前利潤率的成長應該與全年保持一致,我們的稅率在十五到十一五之間。
Let me conclude by saying that we have a durable and differentiated business model that positions us well to navigate a range of economic environments. While there is uncertainty, we remain laser-focused on taking actions to control what we can and executing our strategy to accelerate revenue growth and free cash flow.
最後,我想說,我們擁有持久且差異化的商業模式,這使我們能夠很好地應對各種經濟環境。儘管存在不確定性,但我們仍然專注於採取行動控制我們所能控制的事情,並執行我們的策略以加速收入成長和自由現金流。
We believe our focused portfolio, disciplined investments in innovation, diverse set of businesses and clients, relentless focus on productivity and strong liquidity drive the durability of our performance.
我們相信,我們專注的投資組合、對創新的嚴謹投資、多元化的業務和客戶、對生產力的不懈關注以及強大的流動性將推動我們業績的持久性。
Arvind and I are now happy to take your questions. Olympia, let's get started.
Arvind 和我現在很高興回答您的問題。奧林匹亞,我們開始吧。
Olympia McNerney - Global Head of Investor relations
Olympia McNerney - Global Head of Investor relations
Thank you, Jim. Before we begin the Q&A, I'd like to mention a couple of items. First, supplemental information is provided at the end of the presentation. And then second, as always, I'd ask you to refrain from multipart questions. Operator, let's please open it up for questions.
謝謝你,吉姆。在我們開始問答之前,我想提幾點。首先,在演示結束時提供補充資訊。其次,與往常一樣,我要求您不要問多部分問題。接線員,請讓我們開始提問。
Operator
Operator
(Operator Instructions) Jim Schneider, Goldman Sachs.
(操作員指示)高盛的吉姆施耐德。
Jim Schneider - Analyst
Jim Schneider - Analyst
I was wondering if we could maybe start off with sort of framing the macro impact that you're seeing on both Software and Consulting. You talked about some of the potential drivers, but I'm sort of curious at this point, are you seeing any kind of significant softening in say, the consumption portion of the portfolio, either Red Hat or otherwise?
我想知道我們是否可以先從闡述您在軟體和諮詢領域看到的宏觀影響開始。您談到了一些潛在的驅動因素,但我現在有點好奇,您是否看到投資組合的消費部分(無論是紅帽還是其他部分)出現任何明顯的疲軟?
And do you see any slowdown in specifically, Transaction Processing for the year that will allow you to not sort of hit the target you laid out at the Investor Day? Similarly on Consulting, are you seeing the DOGE impact sort of significantly impacting the near-term results? Or is this more of an expectation of a slowdown in a broader sort of enterprise mix of business?
您是否認為今年交易處理的具體放緩會導致您無法實現投資者日所設定的目標?同樣,在諮詢方面,您是否認為 DOGE 效應會對近期業績產生重大影響?或者這更多的是對更廣泛的企業業務組合放緩的預期?
And then just broadly speaking, if you could address the sort of subsegment guidance you had provided at Investor Day approaching double digits in Software and low single digits in Consulting and whether we expect either of those to change very much.
然後從廣義上講,您是否可以談談您在投資者日提供的細分市場指導,即軟體行業接近兩位數增長,諮詢行業接近個位數增長,以及我們是否預計這兩個行業會發生很大變化。
Arvind Krishna - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Arvind Krishna - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Okay. Jim, I'm hoping I can remember, I think it was five parts to your question. Let me address the macro pieces and then I'm going to ask Jim Kavanaugh to address the last piece on the subsegment guidance. So if we look at what happened in the first quarter and then if you project forward, there's a difference. We did not really see much of a slowdown in 1Q on the consumption part of the Software business, whether it's in TPS or whether it's in Red Hat, just to be straightforward.
好的。吉姆,我希望我能記住,我認為你的問題分為五個部分。讓我先討論一下宏觀部分,然後我會請吉姆·卡瓦諾 (Jim Kavanaugh) 討論關於細分指導的最後一部分。因此,如果我們看一下第一季發生的情況,然後進行預測,就會發現有所不同。坦白說,我們在第一季並沒有看到軟體業務的消費部分出現太大的放緩,無論是 TPS 還是 Red Hat。
We are projecting though that if there is slowdown in global GDP, there could be a small slowdown, not a big slowdown in the Red Hat part of the consumption business, which just to remind you, is only between 10% and 20% of the total business.
我們預測,如果全球 GDP 放緩,那麼紅帽消費業務部分可能會出現小幅放緩,但不會大幅放緩,需要提醒的是,該部分僅佔總業務的 10% 到 20%。
If I look at Transaction Processing, if anything, we see tailwinds right now, not headwinds. So we expect that part of the portfolio to remain strong unless we approach a recession or negative GDP, which we are not projecting from everything that we can see and read. Going to Consulting and DOGE. Yes, we are not immune from all those activities just like everybody else.
如果我看一下交易處理,如果有的話,我們現在看到的是順風,而不是逆風。因此,我們預計,除非我們陷入經濟衰退或 GDP 為負,否則這部分投資組合將保持強勁,根據我們所看到和讀到的一切,我們並沒有預測到這種情況。去諮詢和 DOGE。是的,我們和其他人一樣,並不能免於所有這些活動的影響。
We had a couple of contracts that were impacted in the first quarter. You expect US AID, where we did some work, was impacted but not really in most other cases. The work we tend to do is much more mission-critical is much more about building the government systems, which make them more efficient and so we see them carry on. Now it's hard to predict where that goes over the rest of the year.
我們第一季有幾份合約受到了影響。我們認為美國國際開發署(我們在那裡做了一些工作)會受到影響,但大多數其他情況下並沒有受到影響。我們所做的工作更為關鍵,更多的是建立政府系統,使其更有高效,以便我們可以看到它們繼續前進。現在很難預測今年剩餘時間的情況如何。
So I'm not going to try and make that prediction on DOGE and Consulting, except to caution, as Jim said in his prepared remarks, if there is pressure in the economy, Consulting tends to see headwinds before other parts of the business. I think there was three or four of your five parts. And subsegment compared to Investor Day, Jim, I'll leave to you.
因此,我不會嘗試對 DOGE 和諮詢業務做出這樣的預測,只是要謹慎,正如 Jim 在他的準備好的發言中所說的那樣,如果經濟面臨壓力,諮詢業務往往會比其他業務部分更早遇到阻力。我認為你的五個部分中有三到四個。與投資者日相比,吉姆,我將把細分留給你。
James Kavanaugh - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance and Operations
James Kavanaugh - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance and Operations
All right. Thanks, Jim, for the question overall. If you go back to Investor Day, what did we talk about? We talked about the strategic repositioning of our portfolio and our company overall to much more software-centric, platform-centric model.
好的。謝謝吉姆提出這個問題。如果回顧投資者日,我們談了什麼?我們討論了我們的產品組合和整個公司的策略重新定位,轉向更以軟體為中心、以平台為中心的模式。
And we laid out a financial investment thesis, we called it our shareholder value creation thesis, that said we would take this business from a no-growth profile to the last three years kind of low single-digit profile to an accelerating revenue growth profile of mid-single-digit-plus, and that's how we guided 2025.
我們提出了一個金融投資論點,我們稱之為股東價值創造論點,即我們將把這項業務從零成長狀態轉變為過去三年的低個位數成長狀態,再轉變為中等個位數以上的加速收入成長狀態,這就是我們對 2025 年的指導。
Underpinning that was an accelerating revenue growth profile of Software. And right now, when you look at us maintaining our guidance in 2025, we are right on path to that, and I'm sure we could talk about the underpinnings of Software a little bit later.
支撐這一趨勢的因素是軟體收入成長的加速。現在,當您看到我們在 2025 年維持我們的指導方針時,我們正朝著這個方向前進,我相信我們稍後可以討論軟體的基礎。
Second, what was a big change we made? We said with the new innovation investments and the repositioning of Infrastructure, that we were moving that business from a cyclical business to a secular grower. And in our guidance for 2025 of the 5%-plus, we are the first instantiation in '25 of a secular grower as we're very excited about the new innovation of our mainframe that was just launched here in the beginning of April.
第二,我們所做的重大改變是什麼?我們表示,透過新的創新投資和基礎設施的重新定位,我們正在將該業務從週期性業務轉變為長期成長業務。在我們對 2025 年 5% 以上成長的指導中,我們是 25 年長期成長的第一個實例,因為我們對 4 月初剛推出的大型主機的新創新感到非常興奮。
And then we said Consulting, over time, the market, which we have confidence in, that's been growing, on average, 5%, 6% over a decade long. Yeah, there're some years up and down, absolutely. But we have confidence in the long-term growth vector of Consulting and more importantly, the integrated value of what Consulting brings to our portfolio.
然後我們說,隨著時間的推移,我們對諮詢市場充滿信心,該市場在過去十年中平均成長 5% 至 6%。是的,確實有些年份有起有落。但我們對諮詢業務的長期成長方向充滿信心,更重要的是,我們對諮詢業務為我們的投資組合帶來的綜合價值充滿信心。
The tip of the spear, driving and pulling our technology and driving that attractive economic multiplier effect. So you look at '25, we started the year out this year and we said, given the demand environment, we were prudently cautious at the low end of low single digits.
矛尖,推動和拉動我們的技術,並產生有吸引力的經濟乘數效應。所以你看看'25,我們今年開始了這一年,我們說,考慮到需求環境,我們對低個位數的低端持謹慎態度。
We started out first quarter. Here, we stabilized the business flat. We see that pretty much the same. There's a lot of dynamics going on in the year, but we're kind of confident in that flat stabilized area overall. So hopefully, that gives you some perspective.
我們開始了第一季。在這裡,我們穩定了業務水準。我們看到的幾乎是一樣的。今年發生了很多動態變化,但我們對整體平穩的區域充滿信心。希望這能給你一些啟發。
Operator
Operator
Wamsi Mohan, Bank of America.
美國銀行的 Wamsi Mohan。
Wamsi Mohan - Analyst
Wamsi Mohan - Analyst
Maybe just to follow on in terms of just the way to get to your 5%-plus guide for the full year. It'd be helpful if you could maybe just give us some sense both on Red Hat which is going to face tougher comps, and Transaction Processing, which is starting off at 2%, how we get to sort of this double-digit Software or approaching double-digit Software contribution?
也許只是為了遵循實現全年 5% 以上指導的方法。如果您能為我們介紹一下將面臨更嚴峻競爭的 Red Hat 和從 2% 開始的交易處理,我們如何實現兩位數的軟體或接近兩位數的軟體貢獻,那將會很有幫助?
And Jim, you noted maybe it's prudent to be a little more cautious on the contribution from Consulting. Is that largely going to be offset maybe by better expectations on Infrastructure as well?
吉姆,您說過,對於諮詢部門的貢獻,也許應該更加謹慎。這是否在很大程度上會被對基礎設施更好的期望所抵消?
James Kavanaugh - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance and Operations
James Kavanaugh - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance and Operations
Yes. Thanks, Wamsi. I'll take this. Let's take a step back. You go through what we talked about in January. And then we played out to Jim's question around our strategic investment thesis for a long-term perspective, which aligned overall about how we accelerate this company and leverage all the work we've done on building a durable, sustainable, inflecting higher growth business.
是的。謝謝,Wamsi。我要這個。讓我們退一步來看。您可以回顧一下我們在一月份討論過的內容。然後,我們圍繞著吉姆的長期策略投資論點提出了問題,該論點總體上涉及我們如何加速這家公司的發展,並利用我們為建立一個持久、可持續、高成長業務所做的所有工作。
We talked entering the year. One, we were coming into the year with a position of strength. That was centered around our Software portfolio, our high-value recurring revenue and our investment in innovation.
我們談論了進入新一年的事情。首先,我們以強勁的勢頭進入新的一年。這主要圍繞著我們的軟體產品組合、高價值經常性收入和創新投資。
Two, Red Hat momentum. The opportunity in front of us on virtualization, AI was going to grow mid-teens.
二、紅帽勢頭。我們面臨的虛擬化和人工智慧領域的機會將達到十幾歲的水平。
Three, our next-generation mainframe that was coming out late in the first half, that would fuel second half.
第三,我們的下一代大型主機將於上半年末推出,這將為下半年帶來動力。
Four, our early leadership position in GenAI.
四、我們在GenAI領域的早期領導地位。
And five, our disciplined capital investment allocation and what we've seen with regards to M&A growth and synergies. I would tell you right now coming out of first quarter, I'm actually feeling more confident on each one of those five, and let me put some numbers to it.
第五,我們嚴謹的資本投資配置以及我們在併購成長和綜效方面所看到的。我想告訴你,在第一季結束後,我對這五個方面都更有信心了,讓我給一些數字。
We just exited it as a strong 2% growth here in the first quarter. We maintained our full year at 5-plus percent. How do you get there? Well, embedded in that 2%, we got about 4 points of contribution from Software. We had a 1 point headwind, given we were at the last 12-quarter cycle of our Infrastructure business and Consulting stabilized was flat.
我們剛剛在第一季實現了 2% 的強勁成長。我們全年的成長率保持在 5% 以上。你怎麼去那裡?好吧,在這 2% 中,我們從軟體中獲得了大約 4 點的貢獻。由於我們正處於基礎設施業務的最後 12 個季度週期,而諮詢業務已趨於穩定,因此我們面臨 1 個百分點的逆風。
What goes forward? Number one, the new innovation in our infrastructure turns 1 point headwind in 2Q to 1-point tailwind for the full year. That's a full 2 point change. So you go from 2% already to 4%. Number two, we are very excited.
下一步是什麼?第一,我們基礎設施的新創新將第二季 1 點的逆風轉變為全年 1 點的順風。這足足有 2 分的變化。因此,您已經從 2% 上升到了 4%。第二,我們非常興奮。
We closed HashiCorp at the end of February. Our actual contribution around inorganic in the first quarter, give or take, was about 1.5 points. To IBM, for the full year at '25, it's going to be north of 2.5. We get another point of M&A. So now you're up to 5% growth.
我們在二月底關閉了 HashiCorp。我們第一季在無機方面的實際貢獻約為 1.5 個百分點。對 IBM 來說,25 年全年,這一數字將超過 2.5。我們得到了另一個併購觀點。所以現在你的成長率高達 5%。
Now you get to, okay, how do we get north of that 5% growth, which is what our guide is? Three, Red Hat, seventh consecutive quarter of high teens ACV bookings. We are seeing great demand around virtualization, around automation, around our Linux capability. By the way, all three grew double digits here in the quarter, pervasive and grew share. Our acceleration in Red Hat coming off of roughly 13.5% in the first quarter.
現在您要問的是,好吧,我們如何實現 5% 的成長目標(這是我們的指導方針)?三、紅帽連續第七個季度 ACV 預訂量達到十數億美元。我們看到對虛擬化、自動化和 Linux 功能的需求很大。順便說一句,本季度這三家公司都實現了兩位數的成長,普及度和份額都有所增長。第一季度,Red Hat 的成長速度約為 13.5%。
We're going to commit and we maintain mid-teens for the year. We get another 0.5 point out of Red Hat. I haven't even went to our annuity profile, which is in a strong position with strong renewal rates, et cetera. And we'll see how the Consulting backlog plays out.
我們將致力於並將今年的成長率保持在十五六個百分點。我們從 Red Hat 獲得了另外 0.5 分。我什至還沒有查看我們的年金概況,它處於強勢地位,續保率很高,等等。我們將觀察諮詢積壓工作如何進展。
But I think to your question, we are being very prudent on -- cautiously prudent on Consulting and not expecting any contribution. So that's kind of a walk from a first quarter to full year.
但我認為,對於你的問題,我們在諮詢方面非常謹慎——謹慎,不期望任何貢獻。這有點像是從第一季到全年的走勢。
Operator
Operator
Amit Daryanani, Evercore ISI.
Amit Daryanani,Evercore ISI。
Amit Daryanani - Analyst
Amit Daryanani - Analyst
I guess I was hoping you'd talk a bit more on the Consulting side, and you've talked about there's a lot of notes happening on Consulting, especially from the federal and DOGE exposure. So I'd love to understand, how big is the federal business for you folks?
我想我希望您能多談一些諮詢方面的事情,您已經談到諮詢方面有很多事情要做,特別是來自聯邦和 DOGE 的風險敞口。所以我很想了解,聯邦業務對你們來說有多大?
And how do you think about the discretionary part of your Consulting business stacking up in the back half of the year, given some of the macro noise? Just anything on the Consulting side would be really helpful. And then, Jim, if I could just follow up.
考慮到一些宏觀因素,您如何看待諮詢業務中可自由支配部分在下半年的表現?諮詢方面的任何事情都會非常有幫助。然後,吉姆,我可以跟進一下嗎?
You folks normally don't give a quarterly explicit revenue guide. You're doing it this time around for June quarter. So I'm just curious, what led to the decision to give a more explicit June quarter guide other than you were afraid we were all going to mismodel it?
你們通常不會提供季度明確的收入指南。這次您是為了六月季度而這麼做的。所以我很好奇,除了擔心我們都會誤解它之外,是什麼促使您決定提供更明確的六月季度指南?
James Kavanaugh - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance and Operations
James Kavanaugh - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance and Operations
Yeah. Let me -- first of all, thanks, Amit. Let me take the second question first, and then I'll go into the DOGE specifics to ground us in numbers, and then if Arvind has any of the client pieces back as we've been actively engaged with the administration as you can quite imagine.
是的。首先,謝謝,阿米特。讓我先回答第二個問題,然後我將詳細介紹 DOGE 的具體情況,以便我們掌握相關數字,然後看看 Arvind 是否有任何客戶端部分可以取回,因為正如您所想像的,我們一直在積極與管理層合作。
Well, let's take a look at on currency in particular and given our quarterly guide, why did we do that? Full transparency, we feel obligated with our credibility on what we see in the near term, given we're operating, as we talked about, in a very dynamic and uncertain macroeconomic environment, our best visibility right now is probably in the next 90 days.
好吧,讓我們特別看一下貨幣,並給出我們的季度指南,我們為什麼要這樣做?完全透明,我們感到有義務對短期內看到的景象保持可信度,因為正如我們所說,我們在一個非常動態和不確定的宏觀經濟環境中運營,我們現在最好的可見性可能是在未來 90 天。
And given that credibility and transparency to investors and also in light of the significant US dollar devaluation that's happened over the last three weeks. So let's put that in perspective. The rate, the magnitude and the breadth of the US dollar depreciation, we have not seen in quite some time, like 8% to 9% devaluation.
考慮到對投資者的可信度和透明度,以及過去三週美元大幅貶值的情況。因此,讓我們客觀地看待這個問題。美元貶值的速度、幅度和廣度,我們已經很久沒見過了,貶值了8%到9%。
So what did we do? We gave you both. We always guide on constant currency and we guided on constant currency, and we could talk about the underpinnings a little bit later. Second, just given the extreme volatility in the market, we guided on an absolute dollar range, all in. Why did we do that?
那我們做了什麼?我們給了你們兩者。我們始終以恆定匯率進行指導,我們也以恆定匯率進行指導,稍後我們可以討論其基本原理。其次,鑑於市場的極端波動性,我們以絕對美元範圍作為指引。我們為什麼要這麼做?
Because at 4% constant currency growth, if you just dial back to where the FX rates were as we entered April 1, that would put you at $16.4 billion. If you actually take that same 4% and you look at today's -- actually, today's spot rate devalued or actually appreciated about 1 point, so we already gave 1 point back.
因為以 4% 的固定匯率成長率,如果你回溯到 4 月 1 日時的外匯匯率,那麼這個數字就是 164 億美元。如果你實際上採用相同的 4% 並查看今天的 - 實際上,今天的即期匯率貶值或實際上升值了約 1 個點,所以我們已經退回了 1 個點。
But if you look at it from yesterday, we'd be at $16.75 billion. So we're not in the business of predicting the FX volatility. We're giving you a range, but we're saying, as always, what we can control, which is the underlying dynamics of the operational performance of our business, we feel confident of at least 4%.
但如果你從昨天來看,我們的總額將是 167.5 億美元。因此我們的業務不是預測外匯波動。我們給了一個範圍,但我們一如既往地說,我們能夠控制的是我們業務營運績效的潛在動力,我們有信心至少達到 4%。
So hopefully, that gives you that. On DOGE, let me ground some data and facts here. One, as Arvind said, no one's going to be immune from this. But our US federal business is less than 5% of IBM's total annual revenue.
所以希望這能帶給你幫助。關於 DOGE,讓我在這裡提供一些數據和事實。首先,正如阿爾文德所說,沒有人能夠倖免於難。但我們的美國聯邦業務僅佔 IBM 年總收入的不到 5%。
About 60% of that is Consulting, which is more susceptible to discretionary efficiency type programs. 40% of it is technology, which is all high-value annuitized revenue under contract. Let's put that off to the side. In Consulting, our US federal is less than 10% of the total.
其中約 60% 是諮詢業,更容易受到自由裁量效率型計畫的影響。其中40%是技術,都是合約規定的高價值年金收入。我們先把這個放在一邊吧。在諮詢業,我們的美國聯邦政府比例不到總額的10%。
By the way, we have less than 3% market share overall. Now when you look at it, Arvind indicated, and by the way, all this data is public. We've had a handful of contracts, either statement of work that have -- or canceled. And on our annualized backlog of over $30 billion in total Consulting, this is like less than $100 million of backlog over a duration of multiple years.
順便說一句,我們的整體市佔率不到 3%。現在當你看到它時,Arvind 表示,順便說一句,所有這些數據都是公開的。我們有一些合同,要么是工作說明,要么是取消了。我們每年的顧問業務積壓訂單總額超過 300 億美元,而這相當於多年來積壓訂單總額不足 1 億美元。
So while no one's immune, we are absolutely focused on monitoring the dynamic process. And I think back to Wamsi's question, we're prudently cautious around Consulting for the year.
因此,儘管沒有人能夠倖免,但我們絕對專注於監控動態過程。我回想起 Wamsi 的問題,我們今年對諮詢業務持謹慎態度。
Arvind Krishna - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Arvind Krishna - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Jim, I think the best thing for you to understand, Amit, Consulting is less -- federal consulting is less than 10% of Consulting. I think that's statement number one. Within that, the vast majority is critical work. We actually process veterans benefit claims. We help process how the GSA does procurement.
吉姆,阿米特,我認為你需要了解的是,諮詢業務較少——聯邦諮詢業務佔諮詢業務的不到 10%。我認為這是第一句話。其中,絕大多數都是關鍵工作。我們實際上處理退伍軍人福利索賠。我們協助處理 GSA 的採購事宜。
We help implement payroll systems. I don't think of these as optional. Now are there some areas around the edges which could be viewed as discretionary? Yes. But in our case, that is the minority of our business, not the majority.
我們幫助實施工資系統。我不認為這些是可選的。現在,邊緣周圍是否存在一些可以視為可自由支配的區域?是的。但就我們而言,這只是我們業務中的少數,而不是多數。
Operator
Operator
Ben Reitzes, Melius Research.
Ben Reitzes,Melius Research。
Ben Reitzes - Analyst
Ben Reitzes - Analyst
If you can hear me now, I wanted to talk about the Red Hat business. It decelerated, I guess, 300 basis points sequentially. And I was wondering if we could just talk a little bit more about the dynamics, why that occurred. I think you said the consumption business didn't get hit. And then it looks like it's going to reaccelerate because of the great bookings.
如果您現在能聽到我說話,我想談談紅帽業務。我估計它連續減速了 300 個基點。我想知道我們是否可以再多談談其中的動態以及為什麼會發生這種情況。我認為您說過消費業務沒有受到打擊。然後,由於預訂量巨大,它看起來將再次加速。
And then you mentioned virtualization. I don't know if you've mentioned that before in the conference calls, but wondering how much of a driver that is for Red Hat, given some of the changes going on at VMware.
然後您提到了虛擬化。我不知道您是否在之前的電話會議中提到過這一點,但考慮到 VMware 正在進行的一些變化,我想知道這對 Red Hat 來說有多大推動作用。
James Kavanaugh - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance and Operations
James Kavanaugh - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance and Operations
Thanks, Ben. Let me take some of the numbers around Red Hat, and then Arvind can add some of the color around the portfolio, et cetera. I would tell you, we're very pleased with our Red Hat performance entering the year. Very different profile than where we were a year ago, by the way, when we were trying to accelerate to get to double digits for the year. Yes, it decelerated but let me unpack some of this for you.
謝謝,本。讓我拿一些有關 Red Hat 的數據,然後 Arvind 可以添加一些有關產品組合的顏色,等等。我想告訴你,我們對紅帽今年的表現非常滿意。順便說一句,與一年前相比,我們的狀況有很大不同,當時我們正努力加速今年的兩位數成長。是的,它減速了,但讓我為你解開其中的一些謎團。
One, we grew 13.5%. I think well within our guidance range of where we wanted to start the year. Underpinning that, the most important thing, as you called out, Ben, thank you, our seventh consecutive quarter of strong ACV signings bookings, high teens overall. The way I'd like to look at this business, you've got to break it out between the different compositions. One, 80% of our portfolio is subscription-based businesses.
第一,我們成長了13.5%。我認為這完全符合我們年初的預期。作為支撐,最重要的是,正如你所說,本,謝謝你,我們連續第七個季度實現了強勁的 ACV 簽約預訂量,總體達到十幾歲。我看待這項業務的方式是,你必須將其分解為不同的組成部分。第一,我們的投資組合中有 80% 是基於訂閱的業務。
We continue to see strong performance, high mid-teens level overall. Pervasive double-digit growth across the portfolio, as I stated earlier, in gaining share, RHEL up 13%, Red Hat OpenShift up 23%. By the way, $1 billion ARR business overall, capitalizing on virtualization, hybrid cloud application modernization. Ansible up strong mid-teens overall, capitalizing on clients, cost efficiency, productivity and GenAI, and by the way, very strong synergistic value of the IBM portfolio overall. So a very healthy profile.
我們繼續看到強勁的表現,整體上處於中十幾歲的高水準。正如我之前所說,整個產品組合普遍呈現兩位數增長,RHEL 的份額增長了 13%,Red Hat OpenShift 的份額增長了 23%。順便說一句,整體 ARR 業務為 10 億美元,利用虛擬化、混合雲端應用程式現代化。Ansible 整體強勁成長,達到十幾歲的水平,充分利用了客戶、成本效率、生產力和 GenAI,順便說一下,IBM 產品組合整體的協同價值非常強。所以這是一個非常健康的形象。
And within it, as we always do, we give you a cRPO next six months. We only see that actually accelerating overall. Now to Arvind's earlier point, the 20% of the business on consumption base, we did not see a decline, we saw a moderation. We remember, 90 days ago, we actually were surprised to the upside. We grew our consumption-based services low mid-teens.
並且,正如我們一貫的做法,我們將在未來六個月內為您提供 cRPO。我們只看到它實際上在整體上加速。現在回到 Arvind 之前提到的,20% 的消費業務,我們沒有看到下滑,而是看到了放緩。我們記得,90天前,我們確實對這一增長感到驚訝。我們的消費型服務成長率達到了十幾歲左右。
In first quarter, that moderated to high single digits. By the way, our model can take high single digits. It's just when you look at the quarter-to-quarter growth, that had about 1.5 points-plus deceleration overall. But growing high single digits on consumption, given the acceleration of our Red Hat portfolio overall, we feel pretty good, and to your point, excited about the portfolio and growth prospects around the growth vector of virtualization around AI, around automation, around containerization, and the moderations happening there. And just to put some numbers to it, virtualization already, just the last couple of quarters, we've already notched in over $200 million of annualized bookings.
在第一季度,這一數字已降至高個位數。順便說一下,我們的模型可以取高個位數。如果看一下季度季增,就會發現整體成長率下降了約 1.5 個百分點。但是,考慮到我們紅帽產品組合整體的加速增長,消費量實現了高個位數增長,我們感覺非常好,正如您所說,我們對圍繞人工智能、自動化、集裝箱化等虛擬化增長向量的產品組合和增長前景感到興奮,並對這些領域正在發生的調整也感到興奮。舉幾個數字來看,虛擬化已經實現,光是過去幾個季度,我們的年度預訂就已經超過 2 億美元。
And we've been building a pipeline that is well north of $0.5 billion worth of virtualization. That gives us the confidence as we go through the remainder of 2025 and why we feel confident in guiding mid-teens.
我們一直在建立價值超過 5 億美元的虛擬化管道。這讓我們對 2025 年剩餘時間充滿信心,也是我們對指導青少年時期充滿信心的原因。
Arvind Krishna - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Arvind Krishna - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. So thanks, Jim. Let me just add a little bit of color on the portfolio. So OpenShift has become the leading platform which clients were using for both containerization but also how you run a collection of servers on premise and in private clouds. Now as they look forward, it's not just containerization.
是的。所以謝謝你,吉姆。讓我為作品集添加一點色彩。因此,OpenShift 已成為客戶用於容器化以及如何在本地和私有雲中運行伺服器集合的領先平台。現在,他們展望未來,這不僅僅是貨櫃化。
They're saying, if I'm doing containerization, why wouldn't I also do virtualization on that environment? Since that set of products is sold by the number of cores or processes managed, that as they add virtualization that adds to the footprint.
他們說,如果我正在進行貨櫃化,為什麼我不在該環境中進行虛擬化?由於該組產品是按照所管理的核心數或進程數來銷售的,因此它們添加了虛擬化功能,從而增加了佔用空間。
Now of course, as we all know, once they make a platform decision, then most new applications, most migrated applications tend to come on to that infrastructure. Their skills around that platform grow and you get a flywheel that over time will then, we believe, include both HashiCorp and Ansible that will come in there. That is the way I think you should think about virtualization, not so much vis-Ã -vis competitors only.
當然,眾所周知,一旦他們做出平台決策,那麼大多數新應用程式、大多數遷移的應用程式都會傾向於採用該基礎架構。他們圍繞著該平台的技能不斷增長,你就得到了一個飛輪,隨著時間的推移,我們相信,它將包括 HashiCorp 和 Ansible。我認為您應該這樣看待虛擬化,而不只是考慮競爭對手。
It's going to be much more about a platform and people are making a decision, which platform can I depend upon for the next 10 to 20 years?
這將更多地與平台有關,人們正在做出決定,在未來 10 到 20 年內我可以依賴哪個平台?
Operator
Operator
Erik Woodring, Morgan Stanley.
摩根士丹利的艾瑞克‧伍德林。
Erik Woodring - Analyst
Erik Woodring - Analyst
Jim, I just want to dig into your free cash flow guide. Just you reiterated the full year revenue guide in constant currency, but FX just went from a 2 point headwind to a 1.25 point tailwind, so an incremental, call it, $2 billion of rev from FX alone.
吉姆,我只是想深入了解你的免費現金流指南。您剛剛重申了以固定匯率計算的全年收入指南,但外匯收入剛從 2 個百分點的逆風變為 1.25 個百分點的順風,因此僅外匯收入就增加了 20 億美元。
You maintained your full year PTI margin expansion target, so obviously, really strong flow-through to the bottom line. And so I guess my question is, why aren't we seeing that necessarily show up in higher free cash flow guide for the year? Are we just being conservative because it's early in the year? Or are there any new kind of incremental free cash flow offsets that we now need to think about?
您維持了全年 PTI 利潤率擴張目標,因此顯然對底線產生了非常強勁的傳導效果。所以我想我的問題是,為什麼我們沒有看到這必然出現在今年更高的自由現金流指南中?我們只是因為今年還早,所以採取保守態度?或者我們現在需要考慮什麼新的增量自由現金流抵銷方式?
James Kavanaugh - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance and Operations
James Kavanaugh - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance and Operations
Yes. Thanks, Erik. I really appreciate the question. As we talk about, we've got two key measures in this company. One is to continue to accelerate the top line growth profile of this company, which we committed to 5% plus and second is that free cash flow generation engine.
是的。謝謝,埃里克。我非常感謝你的提問。正如我們所討論的,我們公司有兩個關鍵措施。一是持續加速公司營收成長,我們承諾成長 5% 以上;二是自由現金流產生引擎。
We're very pleased about the start of the first quarter, $2 billion free cash flow print, highest free cash flow margin in a first quarter in the history of our company overall. And by the way, historically, compared to where we're at attainment-wise, we're a few points ahead. Now to your point, we're 15% of our free cash flow attained through first quarter. I think it's prudent for us right now. We feel even stronger about our position around the $13.5 billion.
我們對第一季的開始感到非常高興,20 億美元的自由現金流,是我們公司歷史上第一季最高的自由現金流利潤率。順便說一句,從歷史上看,與我們現在的成就相比,我們領先了幾分。現在回到您的問題,我們第一季實現了 15% 的自由現金流。我認為現在對我們來說這是謹慎的做法。我們對於 135 億美元的地位更有信心。
But why take that up right now in this environment doesn't benefit us at all. We're focused on the durability, resiliency, and driving the disciplined execution overall. Now with regards to currency overall, as you know, we spent a lot of time, both through the last recession of COVID about when we see fundamental unprecedented rate magnitude and breadth changes in currency, it's always good to refresh our investors about how we handle currency.
但為什麼現在在這種環境下提出這個問題對我們沒有任何好處呢?我們專注於耐用性、彈性以及推動整體的嚴格執行。現在就貨幣整體而言,如您所知,我們花了很多時間,無論是在上次 COVID 衰退期間,還是在我們看到貨幣前所未有的基本利率幅度和廣度變化時,讓我們的投資者重新了解我們如何處理貨幣總是好的。
Number one, per GAAP, you can't hedge revenue. That revenue is going to flow whether the dollar is appreciating or devaluing. But I think a couple of important points overall. We have a very robust hedging program. But around that, we hedge only cash flows as a proxy for earnings. That's all you can do. We don't hedge all 100-plus currencies we operate in today.
第一,根據 GAAP,你不能對沖收入。無論美元升值或貶值,這些收入都會流入。但我認為整體來說有幾點很重要。我們有一個非常強大的對沖計劃。但圍繞這一點,我們僅對現金流進行避險,作為收益的代理。這就是你唯一能做的。我們並不會對目前營運的全部 100 多種貨幣進行對沖。
We only hedge about 30 because it's not economically viable to hedge more than 30. So when you take a look at it today, we don't also hedge out more than 12 months because we don't speculate. So when you look at it, the interesting thing is we have to overcome an operating pretax margin headwind when the dollar actually devalues because we have to wrap around on the hedges from last year, right? You'll get absolute profit dollars, yes, but it's mitigated because we try to hedge as much as we can in quarter, read at about 100%. In outer quarters, we hedge about 75%.
我們只對大約 30 進行對沖,因為對沖超過 30 是不經濟的。因此,當您今天看到它時,我們也不會進行超過 12 個月的對沖,因為我們不進行投機。因此,當您看到這一點時,有趣的是,當美元實際貶值時,我們必須克服營業稅前利潤率的逆風,因為我們必須繞過去年的對沖,對嗎?是的,你會獲得絕對的利潤,但利潤會被減輕,因為我們試圖在本季度盡可能地對沖,大約為 100%。在外部季度,我們對沖了約 75%。
So around that, do we have some tailwinds on free cash flow? Absolutely. But the most -- biggest driver of our free cash flow continues to be the same thing we talked about 90 days ago. The driver of high-quality adjusted EBITDA, which, by the way, we grew 12% in the first quarter, up 240 basis points of margin in adjusted EBITDA in the first quarter. Our free cash flow is going to be driven by double-digit EBITDA for the year, and it's going to be driven by a 100 basis points plus margin overall.
那麼,圍繞這一點,我們的自由現金流是否有一些順風呢?絕對地。但是,我們自由現金流的最大驅動力仍然是我們 90 天前談論的相同內容。高品質調整後 EBITDA 的驅動力,順便說一下,我們在第一季成長了 12%,第一季調整後 EBITDA 的利潤率上升了 240 個基點。我們的自由現金流將由今年兩位數的 EBITDA 推動,並將由整體 100 個基點以上的利潤率推動。
That hasn't changed. So nothing changed overall. I would say net more conservative, but prudently, given we have 85% of our free cash flow to go.
這一點沒有改變。所以整體來說沒有任何改變。我想說的是,淨值更加保守,但更為謹慎,因為我們有 85% 的自由現金流可用。
Operator
Operator
Brian Essex, JPMorgan.
摩根大通的布萊恩艾塞克斯。
Brian Essex - Analyst
Brian Essex - Analyst
Arvind, I know it's super early here with regard to the mainframe cycle, but given the experience that you have with previous cycles, what do you anticipate from a macro perspective on -- for an impact on the mainframe cycle? And would you consider taking on more balance sheet risk maybe to ease the pain of any customer CapEx for that business this year?
Arvind,我知道現在談論大型機週期還為時過早,但根據您在之前週期中的經驗,從宏觀角度來看,您預計大型機週期將受到怎樣的影響?您是否會考慮承擔更多的資產負債表風險,以減輕今年該業務的任何客戶資本支出的痛苦?
Arvind Krishna - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Arvind Krishna - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Okay. Brian, thanks for the question. Actually, the last part of the question, Jim can add more, but it's actually pretty straightforward. We've been happy to lease our own hardware and software where a client wants it for decades.
好的。布萊恩,謝謝你的提問。實際上,問題的最後一部分,Jim 可以添加更多內容,但它實際上非常簡單。幾十年來,我們一直很樂意向客戶出租我們自己的硬體和軟體。
And so if they don't want to spend the CapEx, if they prefer to lease it, that is in our financing business, it's in the model, and it is surprising on how many people, even those with great balance sheets of their own, often choose to do that in order to maximize it.
因此,如果他們不想花費資本支出,如果他們更願意租賃,那就是我們的融資業務,這是在模型中,令人驚訝的是,有多少人,即使是那些擁有良好資產負債表的人,也經常選擇這樣做以最大化它。
It doesn't really impact the balance sheet because in that case, we have a receivable against the debt that we take on to do that. So we would happily do that for any creditworthy client. Let me just put that one caveat, that's it. And that is across all countries that we operate in. We don't do this only in the United States, okay.
它實際上不會影響資產負債表,因為在這種情況下,我們有應收帳款來抵銷我們為此承擔的債務。因此,我們很樂意為任何有信譽的客戶提供這項服務。我只想提出一個警告,就是這樣。這適用於我們開展業務的所有國家。我們不僅在美國這樣做,好吧。
The other part of your question. As you can imagine, we start testing very early with our clients, a good six to nine months in sort of more private confidential gatherings on what their reaction is going to be. Given what we showed them around security, around AI and around increased capacity, almost all of them resonated very positively to the mainframe.
您問題的另一部分。你可以想像,我們很早就開始對客戶進行測試,用六到九個月的時間進行更私密的保密聚會,看看他們的反應如何。鑑於我們向他們展示的安全性、人工智慧和增強容量方面的內容,幾乎所有人都對大型主機產生了非常積極的共鳴。
The ones I would expect to be early have already come and said to me that, yes, we are extremely interested. So I actually expect the volatility plays in our favor because those who are thinking about capacity expansion in the end of the year are wondering whether it's more advantageous to them to do it earlier because there is a financial benefit if you have it as opposed to pay for (inaudible) which is certainly possible.
我預計會早到的人已經來了,他們對我說,是的,我們非常感興趣。因此,我實際上預計波動對我們有利,因為那些正在考慮在年底擴大產能的人想知道是否早點這樣做對他們更有利,因為如果你擁有它,就會有經濟利益,而不是支付(聽不清楚),這當然是可能的。
I expect that through this year '25 and the first half of '26, it will be a very strong cycle. If we see any weakness at all compared to the previous cycle, just 1:1, maybe it will be in late '26 or early '27 where some clients in smaller geographies, smaller countries may choose to say, should I wait another six months or nine months? I don't expect that, let me be clear. But I think that is the only caution I would put. So in the first year, I expect this to be very much like the previous cycle.
我預計,從 2025 年到 2026 年上半年,這將是一個非常強勁的周期。如果與上一個週期相比,我們看到任何疲軟跡象,只有 1:1,那麼可能出現在 26 年末或 27 年初,屆時一些較小地區、較小國家的客戶可能會說,我應該再等六個月或九個月嗎?我並不期望如此,讓我說清楚。但我認為這是我唯一要提出的警告。因此,在第一年,我預計這將與上一個週期非常相似。
James Kavanaugh - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance and Operations
James Kavanaugh - Chief Financial Officer, Senior Vice President - Finance and Operations
Yeah. And Brian, on your question on the balance sheet and capital structure, let me take it up a little bit. Yes, mainframe is an integral part of our business portfolio overall, and it is an enduring platform that we are going to ensure that we prudently but aggressively manage, both the client value equation, which is very important because remember, we run 45 of the top 50 banks around the world, 9 of the top 10 retailers, 4 to 5 top 10 airlines of the world. We are going to protect those clients and what the mainframe brings to the table. But I want to take a step back.
是的。布萊恩,關於你關於資產負債表和資本結構的問題,請容許我稍微談談。是的,大型主機是我們整體業務組合中不可或缺的一部分,它是一個持久的平台,我們將確保我們審慎而積極地管理客戶價值方程,這非常重要,因為請記住,我們經營著全球 50 家頂級銀行中的 45 家、全球 10 家頂級零售商中的 9 家頂級航空公司中的 10 家頂級航空公司中的 4 家。我們將保護這些客戶以及大型主機帶來的一切。但我想退一步。
We are confident in our capital structure overall and our liquidity position. And I think over the last four or five years, hopefully all our investors agree, we have a proven track record around being disciplined allocators of capital.
我們對我們的整體資本結構和流動性狀況充滿信心。我認為,在過去四、五年裡,希望我們所有的投資人都同意,我們在嚴謹的資本配置方面有著良好的記錄。
We take that very seriously in this company overall. In times of uncertainty around dynamic macro environment, which is what we're operating in today in a very fluid environment, I would tell you as a CFO, as I tell Arvind all the time, our job is to preserve the balance sheet, is to make sure we have enough liquidity. Why?
整體而言,我們公司非常重視這一點。在動態宏觀環境不確定的時期,也就是我們今天在一個非常不穩定的環境中運營的時候,作為一名首席財務官,我想告訴你,就像我一直告訴 Arvind 的那樣,我們的工作是維護資產負債表,確保我們有足夠的流動性。為什麼?
Because we have to continuously invest and bring in new innovation, both organically and inorganically to this business, to create long-term sustainable competitive advantage. And I would tell you, we are very comfortable. We have over $17.5 billion of cash on the balance sheet.
因為我們必須持續投資並為該業務引入新的創新(包括有機和無機創新),以創造長期可持續的競爭優勢。我想告訴你,我們感覺非常舒服。我們的資產負債表上有超過175億美元的現金。
We got a free cash flow engine we just talked about with Erik's question. We feel very confident in $13.5 billion of free cash flow, and we got the capital structure and a solid investment grade. That gives us optionality to ensure we continue that durability and resiliency of our performance going forward.
我們得到了一個自由現金流引擎,我們剛剛討論了 Erik 的問題。我們對 135 億美元的自由現金流非常有信心,而且我們擁有資本結構和穩健的投資等級。這為我們提供了選擇權,以確保我們在未來繼續保持業績的持久性和彈性。
Operator
Operator
Matt Swanson, RBC Capital Markets.
加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Matt Swanson。
Matthew Swanson - Analyst
Matthew Swanson - Analyst
Arvind, across 2024, every time we had new GenAI product announcements, it was always really centered on this ROI-focused approach, and that was in a much better macro. Now we're in a more challenging macro.
Arvind,在 2024 年,每次我們發布新的 GenAI 產品時,我們總是真正以這種以投資回報率 (ROI) 為中心的方法為中心,這是一種更好的宏觀策略。現在我們正處於一個更具挑戰性的宏觀環境中。
I'm just interested, are you seeing in any spaces, whether it be through the Consulting arm or just more customer interest in this ROI-driven approach, whether it be to hybrid or to GenAI? And does that make your product set a bit more defensive?
我只是感興趣,您是否看到任何領域,無論是透過諮詢部門還是只是更多客戶對這種 ROI 驅動的方法感興趣,無論是混合還是 GenAI?這是否會使您的產品更具防禦性?
Arvind Krishna - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Arvind Krishna - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
So Matt, thanks for the question. If you don't mind, I'm going to like go up a few feet and then come back to answer your question explicitly. Every time there's a new technology, you kind of see three waves. The first wave typically lasts one, two or three years, which is around the semiconductors that enable that new wave. Think PC and the microprocessor was.
馬特,謝謝你的提問。如果您不介意的話,我會走上幾英尺然後再回來明確回答您的問題。每當出現一項新技術時,你就會看到三波浪潮。第一波浪潮通常持續一、二或三年,這段時間與推動新一波浪潮的半導體有關。想想 PC 和微處理器。
Think mobile phone and the hardware was. You then switch to the system. So pretty quickly, if I think about the PC, people stopped caring about the microprocessor. Yes, it was Intel as winner, but they care about buying a Compaq or a Dell or an HP or take your favorite pick of PC. You go to the system.
想想手機和硬體。然後您切換到系統。所以很快,如果我想到個人電腦,人們就不再在乎微處理器了。是的,英特爾是贏家,但他們關心的是買康柏、戴爾、惠普,還是選擇自己喜歡的 PC。你去系統裡看看。
That kind of lasts a year or two. And then you get a long tail of 20 years where people worry about the application because that is what gives them value. I think we're exactly at that point in AI. So the client conversations have shifted from, well, with GPU, which cloud, which model? I think of that all as the lower two layers.
這種情況會持續一、兩年。然後你會得到一個長達 20 年的長尾效應,人們會擔心應用程序,因為這能為它們帶來價值。我認為我們在人工智慧領域正處於這一階段。因此,客戶對話已經從 GPU、哪種雲端、哪種模型轉變。我認為這些都是較低的兩層。
Two, is this going to improve customer experience? Is this going to improve enterprise operations? And I'll reflect on one yesterday from a midsized client. They're a $4 billion, $5 billion client. There are I'll call them midsized.
二、這會改善客戶體驗嗎?這會改善企業營運嗎?我將回顧昨天一位中型客戶提出的一個問題。他們是一個價值 40 億到 50 億美元的客戶。我把它們稱為中型企業。
And their question was, if we believe that we can get 30% savings in our back office finance process and they meant procurement and payments and receivables, we're all in. So I think it is, right at this moment, it is shifting to those conversations. And I believe that, that is where the next two to three years of success in AI is going to go.
他們的問題是,如果我們相信我們可以在後台財務流程中節省 30%(他們指的是採購、付款和應收帳款),我們就會全力以赴。所以我認為,就在此刻,它正在轉向這些對話。我相信,這就是未來兩到三年人工智慧領域成功的方向。
Operator
Operator
Param Singh, Oppenheimer. No response from that caller.
帕拉姆·辛格,奧本海默。該呼叫者沒有回應。
Olympia McNerney - Global Head of Investor relations
Olympia McNerney - Global Head of Investor relations
I think we can end. Let me turn it back to Arvind to close.
我想我們可以結束了。讓我把它交還給 Arvind 來結束。
Arvind Krishna - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Arvind Krishna - Chairman of the Board, Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Olympia. Look, as I mentioned earlier, the diversity across our business positions us well to navigate the current climate. Our portfolio and track record of execution reinforce my confidence on this next chapter of our growth. I look forward to sharing our progress as we move through the rest of the year. Thank you, all, for listening.
謝謝你,奧林匹亞。正如我之前提到的,我們業務的多樣性使我們能夠很好地應對當前的環境。我們的投資組合和執行記錄增強了我對我們下一階段成長的信心。我期待在今年剩餘的時間分享我們的進展。謝謝大家的聆聽。
Olympia McNerney - Global Head of Investor relations
Olympia McNerney - Global Head of Investor relations
Thank you, Arvind. Operator, let me turn it back to you to close out the call.
謝謝你,Arvind。接線員,請允許我將其轉回給您以結束通話。
Operator
Operator
Thank you for participating on today's call. The conference has now ended. You may disconnect at this time.
感謝您參加今天的電話會議。會議現已結束。您現在可以斷開連線。