International Business Machines Corp (IBM) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome, and thank you for standing by. (Operator Instructions) Today's conference is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time.

歡迎，感謝您的支持。 （操作員指示）今天的會議正在錄音。如果您有任何異議，您可以此時斷開連接。

Now, I will turn the meeting over to Olympia McNerney, IBM's Global Head of Investor Relations. Olympia, you may begin.

現在，我將會議交給 IBM 全球投資者關係主管 Olympia McNerney。奧林匹亞，你可以開始了。

Thank you. I'd like to welcome you to IBM's third-quarter 2024 earnings presentation. I'm Olympia McNerney. and I'm here today with Arvind Krishna, IBM's Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer; and Jim Kavanaugh, IBM's Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We'll post today's prepared remarks on the IBM investor website within a couple of hours, and a replay will be available by this time tomorrow.

謝謝。歡迎您參加 IBM 2024 年第三季財報發表會。我是奧林匹亞·麥克納尼。今天我和 IBM 董事長、總裁兼執行長 Arvind Krishna 一起來到這裡。吉姆‧卡瓦諾 (Jim Kavanaugh)，IBM 資深副總裁兼財務長。我們將在幾個小時內將今天準備好的評論發佈在 IBM 投資者網站上，明天此時將提供重播。

To provide additional information to our investors, our presentation includes certain non-GAAP measures. For example, all of our references to revenue and signings growth are at constant currency. We provided reconciliation charts for these and other non-GAAP financial measures at the end of the presentation, which is posted to our investor website.

為了向我們的投資者提供更多信息，我們的簡報包括某些非公認會計原則措施。例如，我們所有提到的收入和簽約成長都是以固定匯率計算的。我們在演示結束時提供了這些和其他非公認會計準則財務指標的調節圖表，該圖表已發佈到我們的投資者網站上。

Finally, some comments made in this presentation may be considered forward-looking under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements involve factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially. Additional information about these factors is included in the company's SEC filings.

最後，根據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》，本簡報中的一些評論可能被視為前瞻性的。有關這些因素的更多資​​訊包含在該公司向 SEC 提交的文件中。

So with that, I'll turn the call over to Arvind.

因此，我會將電話轉給 Arvind。

Thank you for joining us today. Let me start by discussing the quarter before I get into more detail on the execution of our strategy.

感謝您今天加入我們。讓我先討論這個季度，然後再詳細介紹我們的策略執行情況。

We delivered double-digit revenue growth in software with the reacceleration in Red Hat and continued strength in transaction processing. Infrastructure reflects product cycle dynamics with z16 well ahead of prior cycles, highlighting customer adoption and continued reliance on the mainframe.

隨著紅帽的重新加速和交易處理的持續強勁，我們在軟體領域實現了兩位數的收入成長。基礎設施反映了 z16 的產品週期動態，遠遠領先於先前的週期，凸顯了客戶的採用和對大型主機的持續依賴。

In consulting, we continue to navigate an uncertain macro environment with the results at the lower end of our expectations. We generated strong operating profitability and the highest levels of first nine months cash generation in many years, while overall revenue performance was mixed. We continue to reposition our portfolio towards a higher growth, higher margin business that is well positioned to address client needs around hybrid cloud and artificial intelligence.

在諮詢方面，我們繼續應對不確定的宏觀環境，結果低於我們的預期。我們實現了強勁的營運獲利能力，前九個月的現金流創多年來最高水平，但整體收入表現卻好壞參半。我們繼續重新定位我們的投資組合，以實現更高成長、更高利潤率的業務，從而能夠很好地滿足客戶對混合雲和人工智慧的需求。

I'll start with a few thoughts on the macroeconomic environment. Technology spending remains strong. Businesses view technology as a source of competitive advantage allowing them to scale operations, improve productivity, and drive growth. However, a pause in discretionary spending is impacting our consulting business. This is due to economic uncertainty which stems from several temporary factors, including geopolitical issues, upcoming elections, and the changing landscape of interest rates and inflation levels. The consulting market remains dynamic with significant opportunity as clients prepare for AI. Overall, we are confident in our business and our ability to capture these opportunities.

我先談談對宏觀經濟環境的一些想法。科技支出依然強勁。企業將科技視為競爭優勢的來源，使他們能夠擴大營運規模、提高生產力並推動成長。然而，可自由支配支出的暫停正在影響我們的諮詢業務。這是由於一些臨時因素造成的經濟不確定性，包括地緣政治問題、即將舉行的選舉以及利率和通膨水準的變化。隨著客戶為人工智慧做好準備，諮詢市場仍然充滿活力，蘊藏著巨大的機會。總體而言，我們對我們的業務以及抓住這些機會的能力充滿信心。

Now, turning to our performance. Software is nearly 45% of our total revenue, up from the high 20s in 2018, a testament to our focus on organic innovation and repositioning our portfolio. You can see this in our quarterly results as we delivered strong and accelerating software revenue growth of 10%, including Red Hat at 14%, 7 points of organic growth, and strength across our key platforms.

現在，轉向我們的表現。軟體占我們總收入的近 45%，高於 2018 年的 20%，證明了我們專注於有機創新和重新定位我們的產品組合。您可以在我們的季度業績中看到這一點，我們的軟體收入強勁且加速增長 10%（其中紅帽增長 14%）、有機增長 7 個百分點以及我們關鍵平台的實力。

Software segment profit margin was about 30%. Our recurring revenue base, which is about 80% of annual software revenue, continues to deliver strong growth. ARR for hybrid platform and solutions now stands at $14.9 billion, up 11% year-over-year.

軟體部門的利潤率約為30%。我們的經常性收入基礎（約佔年度軟體收入的 80%）持續強勁成長。混合平台和解決方案的 ARR 目前為 149 億美元，年增 11%。

This quarter marks the five-year anniversary of our acquisition of Red Hat and I am proud of our accomplishments together. Since IBM announced the acquisition, Red Hat revenue has grown to approximately $6.5 billion, doubling in size and delivering a mid-teens CAGR. OpenShift scaled from about $100 million in ARR to $1.3 billion, expanding more than 10 times.

本季是我們收購紅帽五週年，我為我們共同的成就感到自豪。自 IBM 宣布收購以來，紅帽收入已成長至約 65 億美元，規模翻了一番，複合年增長率為 10 左右。 OpenShift 的 ARR 從約 1 億美元擴大到 13 億美元，擴大了 10 倍以上。

Red Hat has also continued to diversify its global footprint expanding into many new countries since acquisition. We continue to drive innovation, announcing new capabilities, including Ansible 2.5, RHEL.ai, and OpenShift AI. Red Hat was also named a leader for the second consecutive year in the 2024 Gartner Magic Quadrant for Container Management.

自收購以來，紅帽也持續多元化其全球足跡，擴展到許多新國家。我們持續推動創新，推出新功能，包括 Ansible 2.5、RHEL.ai 和 OpenShift AI。紅帽也連續第二年被評為 2024 年 Gartner 容器管理魔力像限領導者。

We continue to gain traction in enterprise AI. Our book of business related to generative AI is now over $3 billion inception to date, up more than $1 billion quarter-over-quarter. The mix is roughly 1/5 software and 4/5 consulting signings. This performance has placed us in an early leadership position, which is crucial at the onset of any technology shift. The AI portfolio we have built is designed to give clients a comprehensive set of tools to deploy AI within their enterprise.

我們持續在企業人工智慧領域獲得關注。迄今為止，我們與生成式人工智慧相關的業務規模目前已超過 30 億美元，季增超過 10 億美元。其中約 1/5 是軟體簽約，4/5 是顧問簽約。這一表現使我們處於早期的領導地位，這對於任何技術轉變的開始都是至關重要的。我們建構的人工智慧產品組合旨在為客戶提供一套全面的工具，以便在其企業內部署人工智慧。

RHEL.ai and OpenShift AI allow clients to build a consistent AI foundation based on open source technology, while watsonx provides an AI middleware platform. Our assistants are designed to help clients become more productive using AI across a variety of business processes from code to HR, customer service, and more. Consulting is helping clients design and execute AI strategies. We also continue to see our infrastructure segment play a larger role as clients bring AI to their data.

RHEL.ai和OpenShift AI允許客戶基於開源技術建立一致的AI基礎，而watsonx則提供AI中間件平台。我們的助理旨在幫助客戶在從程式碼到人力資源、客戶服務等各種業務流程中使用人工智慧來提高工作效率。諮詢正在幫助客戶設計和執行人工智慧策略。隨著客戶將人工智慧引入其數據，我們也繼續看到我們的基礎設施部門發揮更大的作用。

Choosing the right AI model is top of mind for our clients. IBM's Granite family of AI models are fit for purpose. Earlier this year, we released code models with 8 billion to 34 billion parameters. This month, we updated granite models, making them approximately 90% more cost efficient than larger models. These models can be trained in weeks instead of months and are easier to fine tune for specific tasks. Granite models are available on watsonx and Red Hat and are also integrated into offerings from partners like AWS, Salesforce, Qualcomm, and SAP.

選擇正確的人工智慧模型是我們客戶的首要任務。 IBM 的 Granite 系列 AI 模型非常適合用途。今年早些時候，我們發布了具有 80 億至 340 億個參數的程式碼模型。本月，我們更新了花崗岩模型，使其成本效益比大型模型高出約 90%。這些模型可以在幾週而不是幾個月的時間內完成訓練，並且更容易針對特定任務進行微調。 Granite 模型可在 watsonx 和 Red Hat 上使用，並且還整合到 AWS、Salesforce、Qualcomm 和 SAP 等合作夥伴的產品中。

Globally, clients are turning to IBM to transform their operations with technology. This quarter, we announced new collaborations with NatWest, Telefonica, Samsung SDS, Toyota Systems, and many others. At the US Open, IBM delivered AI-generated match report summaries and we are collaborating with ESPN to enhance the sports coverage through advanced AI insights.

在全球範圍內，客戶正在轉向 IBM 透過技術來改變他們的營運。本季度，我們宣布與 NatWest、Telefonica、Samsung SDS、Toyota Systems 等許多公司建立新的合作。在美國公開賽上，IBM 提供了人工智慧生成的比賽報告摘要，我們正在與 ESPN 合作，透過先進的人工智慧見解來增強體育報道。

We also continue to deepen our relationships with key technology partners, including Dell, Intel, Microsoft, Oracle, Salesforce, SAP, and ServiceNow. We remain focused on delivering innovations to the market. For example, this quarter, we announced Telum II, IBM's next-generation processor for Z and the Spyre Accelerator, which will significantly enhance IBM Z's AI capabilities and processing power for enterprise scale applications.

我們也持續深化與主要技術合作夥伴的關係，包括戴爾、英特爾、微軟、甲骨文、Salesforce、SAP 和 ServiceNow。我們仍然專注於向市場提供創新。例如，本季度，我們發布了 IBM 的下一代 Z 處理器 Telum II 和 Spyre 加速器，這將顯著增強 IBM Z 的 AI 功能和企業級應用程式的處理能力。

Investment in emerging technologies also remains a focus for IBM. Earlier this month, we opened Europe's first IBM Quantum Data Center. This is the second IBM Quantum data center deployed globally, which will greatly advance our goal of expanding access to the world's most performant quantum computers.

對新興技術的投資仍是 IBM 的重點。本月早些時候，我們開設了歐洲第一個 IBM 量子資料中心。這是在全球部署的第二個 IBM 量子資料中心，這將極大地推進我們擴大對世界上性能最強的量子電腦的存取範圍的目標。

Before I conclude, let me touch on our outlook. The momentum in our software strategy can be seen in our year-to-date results. Our revenue guidance for the fourth quarter reflects this progress, balanced by macro dynamics in consulting, and infrastructure product cycle dynamics. We remain confident in our free cash flow guidance which we raised in July, driven by continued strength in our operating margin performance.

在結束之前，讓我談談我們的展望。我們軟體策略的動能可以從我們今年迄今的業績看出。我們第四季的營收指引反映了這一進展，並透過諮詢的宏觀動態和基礎設施產品週期動態進行平衡。在營業利益率表現持續強勁的推動下，我們對 7 月提高的自由現金流指引仍充滿信心。

Overall, our portfolio is well positioned to deliver an upward inflection in growth in 2025. I'm excited about the opportunities ahead of us and will share more details with you in January.

總體而言，我們的投資組合處於有利位置，可以在 2025 年實現增長的向上拐點。

I will now hand over to Jim to walk you through the details of the quarter. Jim, over to you.

現在我將請吉姆向您介紹本季的詳細資訊。吉姆，交給你了。

Thanks, Arvind. In the third quarter, we delivered $15 billion in revenue, $3.8 billion of adjusted EBITDA, $2.5 billion of operating pretax income, and $2.30 operating diluted earnings per share. And through the first nine months, we generated $6.6 billion of free cash flow. We are pleased with the solid operating profitability and free cash flow generation of the business.

謝謝，阿爾溫德。第三季度，我們實現了 150 億美元的營收、38 億美元的調整後 EBITDA、25 億美元的稅前營運收入和 2.30 美元的營運攤薄每股收益。前 9 個月，我們創造了 66 億美元的自由現金流。我們對該業務穩健的營運獲利能力和自由現金流產生感到滿意。

Revenue growth, combined with 100 basis points of operating pretax margin expansion drove 8% operating pretax profit growth and 5% operating diluted earnings per share growth. Our revenue growth for the quarter was up 2% at constant currency. Software growth accelerated to 10%, with strength across our key platforms of Red Hat, automation, data and AI, and transaction processing. Consulting was flat and continue to be impacted by a dynamic market environment as clients reprioritized spending. And infrastructure was down 7%, reflecting product cycle dynamics.

收入成長，加上營業稅前利潤率擴大 100 個基點，推動稅前營業利潤成長 8%，稀釋後每股營業利益成長 5%。以固定匯率計算，我們本季的營收成長了 2%。借助紅帽、自動化、數據和人工智慧以及交易處理等關鍵平台的優勢，軟體成長加速至 10%。諮詢業務表現平淡，並繼續受到動態市場環境的影響，因為客戶重新調整了支出的優先順序。基礎設施下降了 7%，反映了產品週期動態。

Our portfolio mix, operating leverage, and yield from productivity initiatives generated strong gross margin, operating profit, and free cash flow performance. These results represent our highest third quarter levels of gross margin and free cash flow in many years. We expanded operating gross margin by 210 basis points and operating pretax margin by 100 basis points over last year. Year-to-date, operating pretax margin is up 150 basis points, well ahead of our guidance provided in July of over 50 basis points of improvement in 2024.

我們的投資組合、營運槓桿和生產力計劃的收益產生了強勁的毛利率、營運利潤和自由現金流表現。這些結果代表了我們多年來最高的第三季毛利率和自由現金流水準。與去年相比，我們的營業毛利率提高了 210 個基點，營業稅前利潤率提高了 100 個基點。今年迄今為止，營業稅前利潤率上升了 150 個基點，遠高於我們 7 月提供的 2024 年改善超過 50 個基點的指引。

In September, we closed on the Palo Alto QRadar transaction, generating a pretax gain of about $350 million in the quarter. As we previously discussed, this was substantially offset by the charges we took to address stranded costs and accelerate our productivity initiatives. These productivity initiatives allowed for continued investment to drive innovation, which you can see in our higher R&D expense up 10% year-to-date. Year-to-date, we generated $6.6 billion of free cash flow, up $1.5 billion year-over-year. The largest driver of this year-to-date growth comes from adjusted EBITDA, up about $800 million year-over-year.

9 月份，我們完成了 Palo Alto QRadar 交易，該季度產生了約 3.5 億美元的稅前收益。正如我們之前所討論的，這被我們為解決擱淺成本和加快生產力計劃而收取的費用所抵消。這些生產力計劃允許持續投資來推動創新，這可以從我們年初至今成長 10% 的研發費用中看出。年初至今，我們產生了 66 億美元的自由現金流，年增 15 億美元。今年迄今為止成長的最大推動力來自調整後的 EBITDA，年增約 8 億美元。

This quarter, we realized $500 million in proceeds from the Palo Alto QRadar transaction. As I mentioned last quarter, for the full year, we expect only a modest contribution of free cash flow given payouts from structural actions we have taken and foregone profit from the QRadar business. Through the first nine months of the year, excluding the impact of the QRadar transaction, we are several points ahead of our two-year average attainment levels.

本季度，我們從 Palo Alto QRadar 交易中實現了 5 億美元的收益。正如我上個季度提到的，考慮到我們採取的結構性行動的支出以及放棄 QRadar 業務的利潤，我們預計全年的自由現金流貢獻不大。今年前九個月，排除 QRadar 交易的影響，我們比兩年平均達到水準領先幾個百分點。

In terms of cash uses, year-to-date we returned $4.6 billion to shareholders in the form of dividends. From a balance sheet perspective, we have a strong liquidity position with cash of about $14 billion. Our debt balance at the end of the third quarter was flat with year-end 2023 at $56.6 billion, including $10.4 billion from our financing business.

在現金使用方面，今年迄今我們以股利的形式向股東返還了 46 億美元。從資產負債表的角度來看，我們擁有強大的流動性頭寸，擁有約 140 億美元的現金。第三季末我們的債務餘額與 2023 年底持平，為 566 億美元，其中來自融資業務的 104 億美元。

Turning to the segments. Software revenue growth accelerated to 10%, with broad-based growth across the portfolio. This reflects the repositioning of software around key growth platforms: hybrid cloud, automation, data and transaction processing, where we deliver a differentiated value proposition to address clients' most pressing needs.

轉向細分市場。軟體收入成長加速至 10%，整個產品組合廣泛成長。這反映了軟體圍繞關鍵成長平台的重新定位：混合雲、自動化、數據和交易處理，我們在這些平台上提供差異化的價值主張來滿足客戶最迫切的需求。

Growth this quarter was fueled by the same performance drivers we've highlighted throughout the year. Red Hat accelerated, contributing about 3.5 points of growth to software. The combination of innovation and recurring revenue contributed about 3.5 points to growth. And our focused M&A strategy contributed about 3 points of growth.

本季的成長是由我們全年強調的相同績效驅動因素所推動的。紅帽加速成長，為軟體貢獻了約 3.5 個百分點的成長。創新和經常性收入的結合為成長貢獻了約3.5個百分點。我們的重點併購策略貢獻了約 3 個百分點的成長。

Let me take you through some more details on each of these. Red Hat revenue growth accelerated to 14%, up 6 points sequentially. We gained market share across each of our key solutions, with OpenShift and Ansible growing more than 20% and RHEL growing in the double digits. This strength reflects the demand for our hybrid cloud solutions as clients continue to prioritize application modernization on OpenShift containers and Ansible automation to optimize their IT spend and reduce operational complexity.

讓我帶您了解每一個的更多細節。紅帽營收成長加速至 14%，較上一季成長 6 個百分點。我們的每個關鍵解決方案都獲得了市場份額，其中 OpenShift 和 Ansible 成長了 20% 以上，RHEL 則以兩位數成長。這種優勢反映了對我們混合雲端解決方案的需求，因為客戶繼續優先考慮 OpenShift 容器和 Ansible 自動化上的應用程式現代化，以優化其 IT 支出並降低營運複雜性。

We saw strong acceleration in Red Hat's subscription business, while the consumption-based services business stabilized as we expected. Looking at our revenue under contract over the next six months, this metric continues to grow in the mid-teens as our annual bookings grew double digits in the third quarter. We are excited about the opportunities ahead of us, including generative AI, early client interest in our virtualization solution, and after the deal completion, potential synergies with HashiCorp.

我們看到紅帽訂閱業務強勁加速，而基於消費的服務業務則如我們預期穩定。看看我們未來六個月的合約收入，隨著我們第三季度的年度預訂量增長兩位數，這一指標繼續以十幾歲左右的速度增長。我們對眼前的機會感到興奮，包括生成式人工智慧、早期客戶對我們的虛擬化解決方案的興趣，以及交易完成後與 HashiCorp 的潛在協同效應。

We delivered strong growth in our recurring revenue base and are seeing momentum from innovation across our software portfolio. Hybrid platform and solutions ARR was $14.9 billion, up 11% year-over-year, driven by strength across automation, data and AI, and Red Hat. Transaction processing grew 9% in the quarter. Growing capacity, solid renewal rates, and continued customer interest in our new generative AI product, watsonx Code Assistant for Z, contributed to growth.

我們的經常性收入基礎實現了強勁成長，並看到了整個軟體產品組合創新的勢頭。在自動化、數據和人工智慧以及紅帽的推動下，混合平台和解決方案的 ARR 為 149 億美元，年增 11%。本季交易處理量成長了 9%。不斷增長的產能、穩定的續訂率以及客戶對我們的新生成式 AI 產品 watsonx Code Assistant for Z 的持續興趣，推動了成長。

We continue to invest in bringing innovation to market, launching new offerings like RHEL.ai, Ansible 2.5, and updated capabilities to our family of assistance including the recently announced watsonx Code Assistant with advanced features for enterprise Java applications.

我們繼續投資將創新推向市場，推出 RHEL.ai、Ansible 2.5 等新產品，以及我們協助系列的更新功能，包括最近發布的具有企業 Java 應用程式高級功能的 watsonx Code Assistant。

Red Hat also announced a partnership with Dell that makes RHEL.ai the preferred platform for AI deployments on Dell PowerEdge servers. This innovation is driving organic growth acceleration with increasing contribution from our core watsonx Middleware in data and AI, watsonx Orchestrate, and IBM concert in automation and our AI embed strategy across our software portfolio

紅帽也宣布與戴爾建立合作關係，使 RHEL.ai 成為戴爾 PowerEdge 伺服器上人工智慧部署的首選平台。這項創新正在推動有機成長加速，我們的核心 watsonx 中間件在數據和 AI 領域、watsonx Orchestrate 和 IBM Concert 在自動化領域以及我們在軟體產品組合中的 AI 嵌入策略的貢獻不斷增加

Revenue performance this quarter also benefited from recent software acquisitions. August marked the one-year anniversary of the Apptio acquisition, and we're seeing strong synergies with our automation capabilities and broader software portfolio, driving continued acceleration in bookings and ARR growth since close. Additionally, the stream sets of web methods assets are now part of the software business. And we continue to expect the HashiCorp acquisition to close by the end of this year.

本季的收入表現也受益於最近的軟體收購。 8 月是收購 Apptio 一週年，我們看到我們的自動化能力和更廣泛的軟體產品組合產生了強大的協同效應，自交易完成以來推動預訂量和 ARR 成長持續加速。此外，Web 方法資產的流集現在已成為軟體業務的一部分。我們仍然預計 HashiCorp 收購將於今年底完成。

Moving to software profit. We expanded gross margin and segment profit was up over 120 basis points from last year as we continue to deliver operating leverage driven by our revenue performance. Consulting revenue was flat, which was at the lower end of our expectations. As we discussed throughout this year, we are operating in a challenging macroeconomic environment and see no change in client buying behavior. At the same time, clients are reprioritizing their IT budgets to prepare for generative AI.

轉向軟體利潤。由於我們繼續在收入表現的推動下提供營運槓桿，我們的毛利率有所提高，部門利潤比去年增長了 120 個基點以上。諮詢收入持平，處於我們預期的下限。正如我們今年所討論的那樣，我們在充滿挑戰的宏觀經濟環境中運營，並且客戶的購買行為沒有變化。同時，客戶正在重新調整 IT 預算的優先順序，為生成式人工智慧做好準備。

While demand for large digital transformations remain solid, our overall signings declined for the second consecutive quarter as we wrapped on record third quarter signings from last year. Despite the weak current demand environment, we are well positioned to capture growth from generative AI. We continue to build a solid generative AI book of business with about $1 billion of new bookings in the quarter as we partner with our clients to design and scale AI solutions and develop new ways of working.

儘管對大型數位轉型的需求依然強勁，但我們的整體簽約量連續第二季下降，因為我們完成了去年第三季創紀錄的簽約量。儘管當前需求環境疲弱，但我們仍處於有利地位，可以從生成式人工智慧中獲取成長。隨著我們與客戶合作設計和擴展人工智慧解決方案並開發新的工作方式，我們將繼續打造堅實的生成式人工智慧業務，本季新增訂單量約為 10 億美元。

This early momentum is important. Engaging with clients as they architect their AI strategies is establishing IBM Consulting as a strategic partner of choice. In the third quarter, our Red Hat practice, which helps clients optimize how they build, deploy, and manage applications for a hybrid cloud environment continue to grow at a double-digit rate, with this quarter being the largest single quarter of signings since the acquisition of Red Hat. Additionally, within our strategic partnerships, both our AWS and Azure practices continue to contribute robust revenue growth.

這種早期的勢頭很重要。在客戶制定 AI 策略時與他們互動，將 IBM Consulting 打造為首選的策略合作夥伴。在第三季度，我們的紅帽實踐幫助客戶優化如何建置、部署和管理混合雲環境的應用程序，並繼續以兩位數的速度成長，本季是自去年以來單季簽約量最大的一個季度。收購紅帽。此外，在我們的策略合作夥伴關係中，我們的 AWS 和 Azure 實踐持續貢獻強勁的營收成長。

Turning to our lines of business. Business Transformation revenue grew 2%, driven by strength in transformation projects for data, finance, and supply chain. Both technology consulting and application operations declined in the quarter. While there was strength in cloud-based application services across modernization, development, and management, we continue to see clients reprioritizing spending away from on-prem customized services.

轉向我們的業務範圍。在數據、金融和供應鏈轉型專案實力的推動下，業務轉型收入成長了 2%。本季技術諮詢和應用業務均下滑。儘管基於雲端的應用程式服務在現代化、開發和管理方面具有優勢，但我們仍然看到客戶重新調整支出的優先順序，遠離本地客製化服務。

Looking at consulting profit, we expanded gross profit margin almost 1 point and delivered segment profit margin of 11%, a sequential improvement of 2 points, reflecting yield from our productivity actions.

就諮詢利潤而言，我們的毛利率提高了近 1 個百分點，部門利潤率達到 11%，環比提高了 2 個百分點，反映了我們生產力行動的收益。

Moving to the Infrastructure segment. revenue was down 7%, reflecting product cycle dynamics. Hybrid Infrastructure was down 9%, and infrastructure support declined 3%. Within hybrid infrastructure, IBM Z revenue declined 19% in what is now the tenth quarter of z16 availability. The z16 program continues to exceed prior cycles, delivering revenue growth in eight of the last 10 quarters and program to date installed MIPS are up over 30%.

轉向基礎設施領域。收入下降 7%，反映了產品週期動態。混合基礎設施下降 9%，基礎設施支援下降 3%。在混合基礎設施中，IBM Z 收入在 z16 推出的第十個季度下降了 19%。 z16 計劃繼續超越先前的周期，在過去 10 個季度中有 8 個季度實現了收入增長，並且迄今為止安裝的計劃 MIPS 增長了 30% 以上。

Our clients continue to face increasing demands for workloads given rapid business expansion, complex regulatory environments and increasing cybersecurity threats and attacks. IBM Z remains uniquely positioned to address these demands with the technologies that our latest program offers, embedded AI at scale, quantum safe security and cloud-native development for hybrid cloud.

由於業務的快速擴張、複雜的監管環境以及不斷增加的網路安全威脅和攻擊，我們的客戶繼續面臨日益增長的工作負載需求。 IBM Z 仍然處於獨特的地位，可以利用我們最新計劃提供的技術、大規模嵌入式 AI、量子安全和混合雲的雲端原生開發來滿足這些需求。

Distributed infrastructure revenue was down 3%, with product cycle dynamics impacting our Power business, while we saw solid growth in storage, which continues to take share. For infrastructure profit, we expanded gross profit margin 120 basis points across the portfolio this quarter. At the same time, segment profit margin was down 110 basis points, driven by continued investments in innovation for our next generation of products.

分散式基礎設施收入下降了 3%，產品週期動態影響了我們的電力業務，而我們看到儲存業務穩步成長，並繼續佔據份額。對於基礎設施利潤，本季我們將整個投資組合的毛利率擴大了 120 個基點。同時，由於我們對下一代產品創新的持續投資，部門利潤率下降了 110 個基點。

Now, let me bring it back to the IBM level to wrap up. Through the first nine months of the year, we have grown revenue by 3%, expanded our operating pretax margin by 150 basis points and grown free cash flow by $1.5 billion. We have made solid progress in transitioning our portfolio to a higher growth, higher margin business that is well positioned as we head into next year.

現在，讓我回到 IBM 層面來總結。今年前 9 個月，我們的收入成長了 3%，稅前營業利潤率提高了 150 個基點，自由現金流增加了 15 億美元。我們在將我們的投資組合轉向更高成長、更高利潤率的業務方面取得了紮實的進展，在進入明年時我們已經做好了充分的準備。

With nine months of the year behind us, let me now focus on the fourth quarter. We expect revenue growth in the fourth quarter to be consistent with the third quarter levels. Software revenue growth has accelerated throughout the year, and this should continue. We expect low double-digit fourth quarter revenue growth for software, led by Red Hat growth in the mid-teens and continued strength in transaction processing. This now represents strong high single-digit growth for the year.

今年已經過去九個月了，現在讓我專注在第四季。我們預計第四季的營收成長將與第三季的水平保持一致。軟體收入全年加速成長，而且這種趨勢應該會持續下去。我們預計第四季度軟體營收將實現兩位數的低成長，紅帽將實現兩位數的成長，交易處理業務將持續強勁。現在這代表了今年強勁的高個位數成長。

Consulting revenue is up 1% year-to-date, impacted by challenging macroeconomic environment. We expect fourth quarter revenue performance to be similar to the third quarter. This represents the weaker end of our prior expectations of low single-digit revenue growth for the year. And given we are at the end of a multiyear product cycle, we now expect the infrastructure to be about a 1 point impact to IBM for the full year.

受充滿挑戰的宏觀經濟環境影響，諮詢收入今年迄今成長了 1%。我們預計第四季的營收表現將與第三季相似。這代表了我們之前對今年低個位數收入成長的預期的較弱端。鑑於我們正處於多年產品週期的尾聲，我們現在預計基礎設施對 IBM 全年的影響約為 1 個百分點。

On currency, given the strengthening of the dollar, we now expect currency to be about a 0.5 point headwind to revenue growth in the quarter and about 1 point impact of revenue growth for the year.

貨幣方面，鑑於美元走強，我們目前預期貨幣對本季營收成長的影響約為 0.5 個百分點，對全年營收成長的影響約為 1 個百分點。

Now turning to profitability. For the full year, we are raising our expectation for operating pretax margin expansion to about 1 point year-to-year well above our model. The strength of this performance is driven by our revenue scale, portfolio mix and productivity initiatives, enabling operating leverage while providing investment flexibility.

現在轉向獲利能力。就全年而言，我們將稅前營業利潤率擴張的預期提高至約 1 個百分點，遠高於我們的模型。這一業績的優勢是由我們的收入規模、投資組合和生產力計劃推動的，在提供投資靈活性的同時實現了營運槓桿。

Actions taken in the third quarter helped accelerate our productivity initiatives, and we now believe we can achieve approximately $3.5 billion in annual run rate savings by the end of 2024, and -- up from $3 billion.

第三季採取的行動有助於加快我們的生產力計劃，我們現在相信，到 2024 年底，我們可以實現年度運行率節省約 35 億美元，高於 30 億美元。

Drilling down on segment margins. We expect Software segment profit margin to expand by well over 1 point for the year. Consulting segment profit margin is now expected to be flat, and we continue to see Infrastructure segment profit margin in the mid- to high teens.

深入研究細分市場利潤。我們預計今年軟體部門的利潤率將大幅成長 1 個百分點以上。諮詢部門的利潤率目前預計將持平，我們繼續看到基礎設施部門的利潤率在中高點。

Consistent with last year, we are maintaining our full year view of operating tax rate in the mid-teens range. For free cash flow, given the strength of our performance year-to-date, we remain confident in delivering greater than $12 billion of free cash flow for the year, driven primarily by growth in adjusted EBITDA.

與去年一致，我們維持全年營業稅率在十幾歲左右的預期。對於自由現金流，鑑於我們今年迄今為止的強勁業績，我們仍然有信心在今年實現超過 120 億美元的自由現金流，這主要是由調整後 EBITDA 的成長推動的。

We are on track to grow revenue expand operating profit and grow free cash flow as we close out 2024. This positions us well as we look forward to 2025. And -- we are confident in our portfolio and growth trajectory as we head into 2025, given the acceleration in software, the opportunities ahead of us in Red Hat, our new mainframe cycle and associated hardware and software stack, our generative AI positioning and contribution from acquisitions.

在2024 年結束時，我們有望增加收入、擴大營業利潤並增加自由現金流。充滿信心，考慮到軟體的加速發展、紅帽給我們帶來的機會、我們新的大型機週期以及相關的硬體和軟體堆疊、我們的生成式人工智慧定位以及收購帶來的貢獻。

Arvind and I are now happy to take your questions. Olympia, let's get started.

阿溫德和我現在很高興回答您的問題。奧林匹亞，讓我們開始吧。

Thank you, Jim. Before we begin the Q&A, I'd like to mention a couple of items. First, supplemental information is provided at the end of the presentation. And then second, as always, I'd ask you to refrain from multipart questions. Operator, let's please open it up for questions.

謝謝你，吉姆。在開始問答之前，我想提幾件事。首先，在演示結束時提供補充資訊。其次，一如既往，我會要求你不要提出多部分問題。接線員，請打開它提問。

(Operator Instructions) Amit Daryanani, Evercore ISI.

（操作員說明）Amit Daryanani，Evercore ISI。

Good afternoon, everyone. Thanks for taking my question. I guess, Arvind you talked towards the end of your comments about how IBM portfolio is delivering (technical difficulty) organically in '25, I assume. And if I think about the segments, I think the interest on your side is somewhat easy to see with the Z17 cycle, but I'd love to hear your thoughts on how does that inflection pan out on soft print consulting especially consulting after a few quarters of muted growth? Thank you.

大家下午好。感謝您提出我的問題。我想，Arvind，您在評論的最後談到了 IBM 產品組合如何在 25 年有機地交付（技術難度），我想。如果我考慮一下這些細分市場，我認為您對Z17 週期的興趣在某種程度上很容易看出，但我很想聽聽您對這種變化如何在軟印刷諮詢上產生影響的想法，特別是在經過幾次諮詢後幾季成長乏力？謝謝。

Hey. Thanks, Amit. First, thank you very much for picking up on that comment on upward inflection for '25. That is something which we have worked really hard to achieve and that I'm really proud of what the whole team has gotten there.

嘿。謝謝，阿米特。首先，非常感謝您接受 25 年向上拐點的評論。這是我們非常努力實現的目標，我對整個團隊所取得的成就感到非常自豪。

To be specific on the parts that you just touched on, what about the upward inflection on Software and on Consulting. So if we look at Software, with Red Hat having just delivered 14% us expecting similar performance for the next quarter. And given that we get at least six to nine months worth of a look ahead based on the CRPO of Red Hat, we expect that to carry on to next year. That could easily then provide a significant amount of lift to software, perhaps about 3 points of growth for Software overall.

具體來說，您剛才提到的部分，軟體和諮詢方面的向上變化呢？因此，如果我們看看軟體，紅帽剛剛交付了 14%，我們預計下一季會有類似的表現。鑑於我們根據紅帽的 CRPO 進行了至少六到九個月的展望，我們預計這種情況將持續到明年。這很容易為軟體帶來巨大的提升，或許可以為軟體整體帶來約 3 個百分點的成長。

Two, we've got very good traction, both in our Gen AI products as well as in our automation suite. And we can look at our pipelines and expect that those will be maintained.

第二，我們在 Gen AI 產品和自動化套件中都擁有非常好的吸引力。我們可以查看我們的管道並期望這些管道將得到維護。

Given we have also seen a lot of mainframe deployment, the MIPS underlying capacity there will power ahead the mainframe or the TPS software. You put that together with already announced M&A of HashiCorp and then planned M&A that we will have over the year, and that gives us a lot of confidence on software being at or likely above the model that we had laid out a few years ago. So I think that gives you the pieces in Software.

鑑於我們也看到了大量大型主機部署，那裡的 MIPS 底層容量將領先於大型主機或 TPS 軟體。將其與已經宣布的 HashiCorp 併購以及我們將在一年內進行的併購計劃結合起來，這讓我們對軟體達到或可能高於我們幾年前製定的模型充滿信心。所以我認為這給了你軟體方面的部分。

Now, on Consulting, I acknowledged in the call that there is some macro issues that will impact discretionary labor. So that is the piece that is there. But that is kind of baked in now to what we have been doing. But as we look forward, our bill-to-book ratio at 1.14 tells us that there is a lot of pent-up demand. As we see this Gen AI pipeline turn from signings into revenue, then we expect to see growth there. And we have a very healthy book of business with the hyperscalers and with our ISV partners, as Jim had talked about.

現在，在諮詢方面，我在電話中承認存在一些宏觀問題會影響可自由支配勞動力。這就是那裡的那部分。但這現在已經融入我們一直在做的事情了。但展望未來，1.14 的訂單與預訂比率告訴我們，有大量被壓抑的需求。當我們看到這一代人工智慧管道從簽約轉化為收入時，我們預計會看到成長。正如 Jim 所說，我們與超大規模提供者和 ISV 合作夥伴有著非常健康的業務往來。

We put all of that together, and we expect to see positive upticks on Consulting. You'll note, I'm not trying to quantify that as deeply as I did in Software, but it will be upwards. Put that together with what we'll see in infrastructure where we expect to see significant upticks starting likely around the end of the first half, and that gives us the confidence in 2025.

我們將所有這些放在一起，我們期望看到諮詢業務的積極成長。您會注意到，我並沒有像在軟體中那樣深入地量化這一點，但它會向上。將其與我們將在基礎設施方面看到的情況結合起來，我們預計基礎設施可能會在上半年末左右開始顯著上升，這讓我們對 2025 年充滿信心。

Operator, let’s take the next question.

接線員，讓我們回答下一個問題。

Toni Sacconaghi, Bernstein.

東尼薩科納吉、伯恩斯坦。

Thank you for the question. I just wanted to follow up largely along those lines, Arvind. IBM is a portfolio of many different things. And some years, things go really well, like TPP this year and other things don't go very well like Consulting this year. But if I look back at the last 4 years, and maybe that's not the right time frame, you may correct me. growth this year will be 3% or less, and growth has been 3% in three of the last four years. And so I understand that the setup for 2025 is good because of the mainframe cycle and acquisition.

謝謝你的提問。我只是想大致沿著這些思路進行跟進，Arvind。 IBM 是許多不同事物的組合。有些年份，事情進展得很順利，例如今年的 TPP，而有些年份則進展不太順利，例如今年的諮詢。但如果我回顧過去四年，也許那不是正確的時間框架，你可能會糾正我。今年的成長率將在 3% 或更低，而過去四年中的三年成長率都是 3%。所以我知道，由於大型機週期和採購，2025 年的設定是好的。

But why is -- why should that not be viewed as a one-off just like this year, maybe as a one-off and being below your 4% to 6% model of less than 3% growth? And specifically, for next year, do you think Consulting signings will inflect positively in Q4? Because they've been negative the last two quarters. So if they don't start to pick up, then the leading indicator for consulting actually does not point to growth necessarily for 2025. So if you can address those questions, that would be great. Thank you.

但為什麼——為什麼不應該像今年那樣將其視為一次性的，也許是一次性的，並且低於 4% 至 6% 的增長低於 3% 的模型？具體來說，明年，您認為諮詢簽約會在第四季產生正面影響嗎？因為過去兩季他們的表現一直為負。因此，如果它們沒有開始回升，那麼諮詢業的領先指標實際上並不一定預示著 2025 年的成長。謝謝。

Toni, look, let me build on the comments I made in response to Amit's question and then address some of the points you made, Tony.

東尼，聽著，讓我在回答阿米特問題時發表的評論的基礎上，然後解決你提出的一些觀點，托尼。

So I'm not sure I would acknowledge that 3% of growth only, while that has been true in many of these years, 2022 was definitely far above that. But let me acknowledge that will also perhaps a one-off with the Kindred revenue now being recognized as intercompany as opposed to intracompany.

因此，我不確定我是否會承認僅成長 3%，雖然在過去的許多年裡都是如此，但 2022 年肯定遠高於這個數字。但我承認，這也可能是一次性的，因為 Kindred 收入現在被視為公司間收入，而不是公司內部收入。

Now, despite that, we actually had higher revenue than that despite what we explicitly modeled out for the Kindred piece. So -- but let me acknowledge at least in two of the last four years, it was around 3%. So what gives us confidence?

現在，儘管如此，儘管我們明確為 Kindred 作品建模，但我們的收入實際上比這更高。所以，但讓我承認，至少在過去四年中有兩年，這一比例約為 3%。那麼是什麼給了我們信心呢？

So as I began to Amit's question, we've been really hard at work rebuilding our portfolio to be both sustainable and have a lot more value for our clients in terms of the innovation we are delivering them as well as our ability to manage the cost and complexity that they have as they're all leveraging technology to drive a much larger part of their own businesses. That's kind of the macro.

因此，當我開始回答阿米特的問題時，我們一直在努力重建我們的產品組合，使其既可持續，又在我們為客戶提供的創新以及管理成本的能力方面為客戶提供更多價值。他們所擁有的複雜性，因為他們都在利用科技來推動自己業務的更大一部分。這就是宏觀的情況。

And under that, the fact that 7% of our Software growth this year was organic in this last quarter, not at all acquisitive, gives us confidence about how well that software is being used. 80% of our software is actually now on a recurring revenue basis. That is up significantly over the last few years. Those all tell us real demand in that part of the portfolio.

在此基礎上，我們今年軟體成長的 7% 是上個季度的有機成長，而不是收購，這一事實讓我們對軟體的使用充滿信心。我們 80% 的軟體現在實際上是建立在經常性收入的基礎上的。在過去幾年中，這一數字顯著上升。這些都告訴我們該投資組合部分的真實需求。

If I turn around and say it's 80% there, and it generated 10%, that gives us confidence on the organic base of software even going into next year. And as far as we can see, the mainframe software will maintain perhaps mid-single-digit growth, not maybe high single-digit growth going into next year. But that gives us really good tailwinds for what we're trying to do there.

如果我轉身說 80% 在那裡，它產生了 10%，這讓我們對軟體的有機基礎充滿信心，甚至進入明年。據我們所知，到明年，大型主機軟體可能會保持中等個位數的成長，而不是高個位數的成長。但這為我們在那裡嘗試做的事情提供了非常好的推動力。

And while I called out HashiCorp, which has sort of already been announced, we do expect, as we get through that deal, to do a lot more M&A even going into next year. And since our cash flows have gone up from four years ago, that gives us more ability to do M&A without any other actions to speak of.

雖然我點名了 HashiCorp（該公司已經宣布了），但我們確實預計，當我們完成該交易時，甚至會在明年進行更多的併購。由於我們的現金流比四年前有所增加，這使我們更有能力併購，而無需採取任何其他行動。

On your consulting side, while the last year and if I go more than four years ago, have been flat or negative, the confidence we're getting there is from the quality of the signings and from the yields that we expect. The overall signings this year have been lower than last year. But if the signings didn't yield, then they don't mean very much. So it's the yields we worry about. And the backlog that we get that we worry about and we are seeing those begin to turn.

在你們的諮詢方面，雖然去年，如果我四年多前去的話，情況一直持平或為負，但我們所獲得的信心來自於簽約的品質和我們預期的收益率。今年的總簽約人數低於去年。但如果簽約沒有取得成果，那麼它們就沒有多大意義。所以我們擔心的是收益率。我們擔心的積壓訂單已經開始好轉。

Note, I'm muting the word begin to turn. I don't expect consulting to inflect like software and go into double digits, but I do expect it to turn into a tailwind for us in terms of being positive growth as we are going. And that's why I believe this may be a tale of two halves. The Consulting may be very modest in the first half, but much better in the second half based on what we can see in terms of the signings, the offerings and as the Gen AI book of business turns into real revenue across all of our clients.

請注意，我將開始轉動這個詞靜音。我預期諮詢業務不會像軟體一樣出現兩位數成長，但我確實預期它會成為我們正向成長的順風車。這就是為什麼我相信這可能是一個分成兩部分的故事。上半年的諮詢可能非常溫和，但根據我們在簽約、產品以及 Gen AI 業務簿轉化為我們所有客戶的實際收入方面所看到的情況，下半年的諮詢會好得多。

I hope that, that gives you a sense. And I know we don't talk on Infrastructure and you acknowledge the mainframe cycle. But I also want to call out credit. Inside the Infrastructure business, there is also a recurring revenue business, which is our hardware maintenance business. And that is also a piece that has gone from being a headwind to potentially close to flat next year. So just in year-to-year, that could well be a 4, 5-point tailwind on that part of the business.

我希望這能給你一種感覺。我知道我們不討論基礎設施，而您也承認大型主機週期。但我也想呼籲信用。在基礎建設業務裡面，還有一個經常性收入業務，就是我們的硬體維護業務。這也是明年可能從不利因素變成接近持平的因素。因此，僅逐年來看，這很可能會為這部分業務帶來 4、5 個百分點的推動力。

Operator, next question.

接線員，下一個問題。

Wamsi Mohan, Bank of America.

萬西·莫漢，美國銀行。

Yes. Thank you so much. Jim, in your comments, you noted no change in client buying behavior and consulting. But if we look at what happened with your AI book of business, which is up meaningfully a meaningful part of that being in services, it would indicate that the underlying Consulting business ex that kind of deteriorated. So I was wondering if you could reconcile that comment with what's happening in Consulting.

是的。太感謝了。吉姆，在您的評論中，您注意到客戶購買行為和諮詢沒有變化。但如果我們看看你們的人工智慧業務簿發生了什麼，這在服務業中是一個有意義的部分，這將表明基礎諮詢業務已經惡化。所以我想知道您是否可以將該評論與諮詢中發生的事情相協調。

And secondarily, you noted year-to-date PTI margin performance of 150 bps improvement, but the fiscal year has guided to about 100 basis points, but you also noted sort of realizing $3.5 million of annual run rate savings. So can you just talk about some of the profit dynamics in the fourth quarter? How we should think about some of the puts and takes over there? Thank you so much.

其次，您注意到年初至今 PTI 利潤率表現提高了 150 個基點，但本財年已指導約 100 個基點，但您也注意到實現了 350 萬美元的年度運行率節省。那麼您能否簡單談談第四季的一些利潤動態？我們應該如何考慮其中的一些看跌期權和接管？太感謝了。

Sure, Wamsi. Thank you for the question overall. As Arvind and I said in the prepared remarks, we're obviously operating in a very dynamic, uncertain macroeconomic environment around the entire Consulting market overall. Yes, we posted flat revenue growth overall, by the way, up 1% year-to-date, so a slight deterioration.

當然，瓦姆西。整體來說謝謝你的提問。正如我和阿溫德在準備好的演講中所說，整個諮詢市場顯然是在一個非常動態、不確定的宏觀經濟環境中運作的。是的，我們公佈的整體營收成長持平，順便說一下，今年迄今成長了 1%，所以略有惡化。

Underpinning that, I think there is multiple dynamics that are playing out. And let me try to unpack some of these. First, to your question about the opportunity statement. And yes, Gen AI, albeit we're very early in the cycle right now, we are very focused on ensuring we get an enterprise lead position in establishing Consulting as a strategic provider of choice. And we're building that book.

作為這一點的基礎，我認為有多種動力正在發揮作用。讓我嘗試解開其中的一些內容。首先，回答你關於機會聲明的問題。是的，Gen AI，儘管我們現在還處於這個週期的早期，但我們非常專注於確保我們在將諮詢建立為首選策略提供者方面獲得企業領先地位。我們正在製作那本書。

If you look at our book of business right now, we exited 90 days ago, IBM above $2 billion, that was about 75% Consulting. Now, we're north of $3 billion and about 80% Consulting. So underneath that, we are actually seeing the last two quarters about $1 billion book of business each quarter being generated.

如果你現在看看我們的業務帳簿，我們在 90 天前就退出了，IBM 的價值超過 20 億美元，其中大約 75% 是諮詢業務。現在，我們的資金已超過 30 億美元，其中約 80% 是諮詢服務。因此，在此之下，我們實際上看到過去兩個季度每個季度都會產生約 10 億美元的業務帳面。

Now, within that, those are mid- to long-term digital transformation Gen AI-based deals. By definition, higher duration, lower revenue yield. And I think we spent time last quarter talking about it, about 3 to 4 points less yield than traditional book of business overall.

現在，這些都是基於人工智慧的中長期數位轉型交易。根據定義，期限越長，收益就越低。我認為我們上個季度花了很多時間討論這個問題，整體收益率比傳統的業務帳面收益低約 3 到 4 個百分點。

But it's important because it's building that backlog growth that Arvind just answered Tony's question on overall because we believe, albeit we're early, this is a long-term growth vector with a multiplier effect across our platforms, our software, our infrastructure that is an integral part of the integrated value thesis of Consulting here.

但這很重要，因為它正在建立積壓增長，阿文德剛剛回答了托尼的總體問題，因為我們相信，儘管我們還處於早期階段，但這是一個長期增長向量，對我們的平台、我們的軟體、我們的基礎設施產生乘數效應這是諮詢綜合價值論文的一個組成部分。

Now mitigating some of that growth is the high-yielding revenue short-term discretionary projects. Those yields are about 4 to 5 points above what we're seeing in Gen AI right now. So I think you're seeing the early cycle dynamics that will put pressure and has put pressure on our top line consulting revenue, but -- and that's why we guided fourth quarter consistent, but more importantly, I would look at the glass half full, we are becoming the strategic provider of choice, we're winning in the Gen AI space around consulting, and that's going to fuel a growth vector around fueling 2025.

現在，高收益收入短期可自由支配專案在一定程度上緩解了這種成長。這些收益率比我們目前在 Gen AI 中看到的收益率高出約 4 到 5 個百分點。所以我認為你看到了早期的周期動態，這會給我們的頂線諮詢收入帶來壓力，但是——這就是為什麼我們指導第四季度保持一致，但更重要的是，我會看到半滿的玻璃杯，我們正在成為首選的策略提供者，我們在諮詢領域贏得了 Gen AI 領域的勝利，這將推動 2025 年左右的成長向量。

Now with regards to profit equation. We're very pleased with our -- fundamentals of our business and the underpinnings of that. We drive operating leverage in this business three different ways. One, high-value portfolio mix. That's why Software is an integral part of our model, approaching 45% of revenue. That growing 10% is a strong profit contributor overall. Two, is we get the high-value leverage of a recurring revenue stream overall and productivity. And three, we get that $3.5 billion that we are looking for coming out.

現在關於利潤方程式。我們對我們業務的基本面及其基礎感到非常滿意。我們透過三種不同的方式來提高該業務的營運槓桿。一、高價值投資組合。這就是為什麼軟體是我們模式中不可或缺的一部分，佔收入的比例接近 45%。這 10% 的成長是整體利潤的強勁貢獻者。第二，我們獲得了整體經常性收入流和生產力的高價值槓桿。第三，我們得到了我們想要的 35 億美元。

We're well ahead of that year-to-date, as you said. I think we're being very prudent on how we're guiding fourth quarter right now. And we'll talk 90 days from now, and we fully expect, by the way, that all drops to the quality in sustainability of free cash flow, we're going to be up well over $1 billion with north of $12 billion this year and will be set up very nicely for 2025.

正如您所說，今年迄今為止我們已經遠遠領先。我認為我們現在對第四季的指導非常謹慎。我們將在 90 天後討論，順便說一句，我們完全預計自由現金流的可持續性品質會下降，今年我們的收入將遠遠超過 10 億美元，超過 120 億美元並將為 2025 年做好準備。

Operator, let’s take the next question.

接線員，讓我們回答下一個問題。

Ben Reitzes, Melius Research.

本‧雷茨 (Ben Reitzes)，Melius 研究中心。

Yeah. Hey, thanks, guys. Jim, we previously spoken about high single-digit growth potential for free cash flow at this company. I was wondering, you've made a lot of comments about 2025, do you think that's possible still in 2025 given the Hashi acquisition? And I want to also see if you can address it. If consulting were to remain flat, does the mix shift still support that. Thanks a lot.

是的。嘿，謝謝，夥計們。吉姆，我們之前談到該公司自由現金流的高個位數成長潛力。我想知道，您對 2025 年做了很多評論，考慮到 Hashi 收購，您認為 2025 年還有可能嗎？我還想看看你能否解決這個問題。如果諮詢業務保持平穩，那麼混合轉變是否仍然支持這一點。多謝。

Yes, Ben. Thanks very much for the question. A lot of interest, as you know quite well from our investors on this particular question of our model. I'm not going to get into the specifics as you would probably not expect me to about actual quantification. I think Arvind and I have both said, we feel very confident about our strategy, our portfolio and our growth opportunities heading forward into 2025.

是的，本。非常感謝您的提問。正如您從我們的投資者那裡了解到的那樣，他們對我們模型的這個特定問題非常感興趣。我不會詳細介紹，因為您可能不會期望我了解實際的量化。我認為 Arvind 和我都說過，我們對 2025 年的策略、投資組合和成長機會非常有信心。

But let's take a step back, right? Three years ago, when we laid out our midterm model, Arvind transitioned this company from a no-growth company to a mid-single-digit company, a company that was roughly about 10 points of pretax margin to a company that's going to exit this year in the high teens, growing 700 to 800 basis points over three years and a company that was stagnant to declining free cash flow, and we'll probably grow free cash flow, by the way. exiting 2024, pretty much on top of the absolute number we set in 2022. So I think we made a lot of progress.

但讓我們退一步，對吧？三年前，當我們制定中期模型時，Arvind 將這家公司從一家無成長的公司轉變為中個位數的公司，一家稅前利潤率約為10 個百分點的公司，一家將退出這個行業的公司。 2024 年結束，幾乎高於我們在 2022 年設定的絕對數字。

Now, when you talk about going forward, we talk about upward growth inflection. All of you understand the portfolio mix composition in this business, the productivity mindset of what we drive in this company and the competitive business model positioning which I would argue we still have a lot of headroom to continue to grow.

現在，當你談論未來時，我們談論的是向上成長的轉折點。你們所有人都了解該業務的投資組合組成、我們在該公司推動的生產力思維以及競爭性業務模式定位，我認為我們仍有很大的空間繼續成長。

Our model has always been to drive operating leverage that enables us to drive free cash flow faster than revenue. And I would fully expect that even with the Hashi dilution that we all acknowledge. We are very excited. We're hoping to close that still by the end of the year, but that transaction stands on its own, strategic value, the attractive financial model and the synergistic value we get across our portfolio of Software and Consulting. And we've got that embedded in our model, and we still feel very confident growing free cash flow faster than revenue.

我們的模式始終是提高營運槓桿，使我們能夠比收入更快地推動自由現金流。即使我們都承認哈希稀釋，我也完全可以預料到這一點。我們非常興奮。我們希望在今年年底前完成這項交易，但該交易本身俱有戰略價值、有吸引力的財務模式以及我們在軟體和諮詢產品組合中獲得的協同價值。我們已經將這一點嵌入到我們的模型中，我們仍然非常有信心自由現金流的成長速度快於收入的成長速度。

Operator, let’s take the next question.

接線員，讓我們回答下一個問題。

Jim Schneider, Goldman Sachs.

吉姆·施奈德，高盛。

Thanks for taking my question. I was wondering if you could maybe comment on the rate at which you're seeing consulting work and the consulting signings you do have translate into revenue and sort of the time to commence then. Is that what's giving you a bit of increased confidence on the inflection in Consulting or the slow improvement in Consulting going to next year?

感謝您提出我的問題。我想知道您是否可以評論一下您所看到的諮詢工作的速度以及您確實將諮詢簽約轉化為收入以及開始的時間。這是否讓您對明年諮詢業的變化或諮詢業的緩慢改善更有信心了？

And then maybe just kind of separately, talk about, if you could, the types of M&A targets you're thinking about in Software and how that might be different than what you've done in the past? Are you thinking of things that are in any way different from the sort of open source in Infrastructure and DevOps type of deals that you've done in the past and how that might be changing? Thank you.

然後，如果可以的話，也許可以單獨談談您在軟體領域考慮的併購目標類型，以及這與您過去所做的有何不同？您是否正在考慮與您過去所做的基礎架構和 DevOps 類型交易中的開源有什麼不同的事情，以及這種情況可能會如何改變？謝謝。

Great, Jim. Thank you. I'll take the first part of your question, and Arvind can handle the second part about the targeted areas around M&A.

太棒了，吉姆。謝謝。我將回答你問題的第一部分，Arvind 可以處理關於併購目標領域的第二部分。

As we stated, we feel very good about the strong start in our Gen AI book of business around Consulting. Let's just put some numbers to it, right? IBM north of $3 billion, growing over $1 billion quarter-to-quarter, The Consulting book of business is approaching $2.5 billion. You put that in perspective against the last technological shift that we can see within our business, that being hybrid cloud and Red Hat, and we're about 2 times that run rate, because we did about $1 billion in the first 12 months.

正如我們所說，我們對圍繞諮詢的 Gen AI 業務手冊的良好開端感到非常滿意。讓我們輸入一些數字吧？ IBM 的顧問業務營收超過 30 億美元，季環比成長超過 10 億美元，接近 25 億美元。你將這一點與我們在業務中看到的最後一個技術轉變（即混合雲和紅帽）進行比較，我們的運行率大約是這個數字的兩倍，因為我們在前12 個月內完成了大約10 億美元的收入。

So we're seeing a very nice acceleration, and we've talked enough about this being very early in the cycle. But that $2.5 billion book of business, that's up almost $1 billion quarter-to-quarter, and it's growing 35%-plus.

因此，我們看到了非常好的加速，並且我們在周期的早期就已經對此進行了足夠的討論。但 25 億美元的業務帳簿比上一季成長了近 10 億美元，而且成長了 35% 以上。

Now, when you look at it, the underpinnings, as I said earlier, these are mid- to long-term strategic digital transformation Gen AI deals, higher duration. Durations are probably approaching high 40 months overall compared to a average duration in Consulting, that's in the low 20s, point number one.

現在，當你看它時，正如我之前所說，這些基礎是中長期策略數位轉型 Gen AI 交易，持續時間更長。與諮詢業的平均持續時間相比，整體持續時間可能接近 40 個月，第一點是 20 多個月。

Point number two, I talked about revenue yield being lower, about 3 to 4 points lower. Revenue yields kind of hovering around mid to high single-digit revenue yield. And again, that's about 3 to 4 points less than traditional. But I can't stress enough. I think these curves will inflect as we move into 2025, and -- because as we start wrapping around the short-term discretionary pullback that's impacting that traditional near-term revenue, we're going to start seeing this long-term growth vector pick up as we go forward, which then has multiplier effects of our software and our hardware going forward.

第二點，我談到收入收益率較低，大約低 3 到 4 個百分點。收入收益率徘徊在中高個位數收入收益率附近。同樣，這比傳統的低約 3 到 4 個點。但我的壓力還不夠。我認為，隨著我們進入 2025 年，這些曲線將會發生變化，並且——因為當我們開始解決影響傳統近期收入的短期可自由支配回調時，我們將開始看到這種長期增長向量選擇隨著我們的前進，這會對我們的軟體和硬體的前進產生乘數效應。

Thanks, Jim. So Jim, let me address the second part of your question. I've been very clear about our M&A strategy. It has to fit our existing strategy. And in this case, for Software, which you asked about, then the three areas would be what are we doing around hybrid cloud. I would say Hashi's a great example or something in there. What are we doing around automation? Apptio was probably a great example there, but so were some others like Turbonomic and Instana. And then what are we doing around data and AI? Where I would tell you that portions of Software AG fell into that camp.

謝謝，吉姆。吉姆，讓我回答你問題的第二部分。我對我們的併購策略非常清楚。它必須符合我們現有的策略。在這種情況下，對於您詢問的軟體，這三個領域將是我們圍繞混合雲所做的事情。我想說哈希是一個很好的例子或其中的一些東西。我們在自動化方面做了什麼？ Apptio 可能是一個很好的例子，但 Turbonomic 和 Instana 等其他一些例子也是如此。那我們圍繞著數據和人工智慧做了什麼？我可以告訴你，Software AG 的部分業務屬於這項陣營。

The reason that I want to stick to the lanes we are in is because we get a massive amount of go-to-market synergy and distribution synergy with IBM, which is the second element of the strategy. There has to be synergy with IBM that the target could not have realized on their own. Otherwise, there isn't an economic return for our investors. So those two pieces are essential right now.

我之所以想堅持我們現在的路線，是因為我們與 IBM 獲得了大量的進入市場協同效應和分銷協同效應，這是該策略的第二個要素。必須與 IBM 產生綜效，而目標公司本身無法實現這一點。否則，我們的投資者就沒有經濟回報。所以這兩部分現在是不可或缺的。

Now, when we did Red Hat five years ago, and I think that, that was implicit in your question, we did open up a new lane of a big open source play and we have stuck to that through the Red Hat discipline and with that brand name. But not everything needs to be open source. So let me be clear on that. Apptio was not open source. Turbonomic was not open source.

現在，當我們五年前做紅帽時，我認為，這隱含在你的問題中，我們確實開闢了一條大型開源遊戲的新路線，並且我們通過紅帽紀律堅持了這一點品牌名稱。但並非一切都需要開源。讓我澄清一下。 Apptio 不是開源的。 Turbonomic 不是開源的。

When we do find an open source property, that fits all our criteria, we would certainly look at it. But that is not our lens or our filter on looking at things. The filter and lens are looking at things for the three areas that I mentioned as being our strategic fit.

當我們確實找到符合我們所有標準的開源財產時，我們肯定會考慮它。但這不是我們看待事物的鏡頭或濾鏡。濾鏡和鏡頭正在研究我提到的三個領域，作為我們的策略契合點。

Now, Jim made a comment about two questions ago about there being headroom. We see a lot of headroom on these topics and helping people manage their infrastructure better, take cost out, reduce the labor complexity, leverage your data are better, do AI at more cost-efficient methods than everything that we see today. As we go through all of this, once we begin to run out of headroom then we might add some areas, but I don't see that happening for some years at this point.

現在，吉姆對前兩個有關淨空的問題發表了評論。我們在這些主題上看到了很大的發展空間，可以幫助人們更好地管理基礎設施、降低成本、降低勞動力複雜性、更好地利用數據、以比我們今天看到的任何方法更具成本效益的方法進行人工智慧。當我們經歷這一切時，一旦我們開始用完淨空，我們可能會添加一些區域，但我認為目前幾年內不會發生這種情況。

Operator, let’s take the next question.

接線員，讓我們回答下一個問題。

Brent Thill, Jefferies.

布倫特·希爾，杰弗里斯。

Thanks, Jim. Really good margin on software 30%, well above past Q3s. How sustainable is this 30% margin and any way to frame that going forward? Thanks.

謝謝，吉姆。軟體利潤率確實很高，達到 30%，遠高於過去的第三季。這個 30% 的利潤率有多可持續？謝謝。

Yeah, Brent. Thank you very much for the question. We're obviously very pleased with our software performance. It's core to our strategy overall. Software being about 45% of IBM's revenue composition, and two-third of our profit. And most importantly, to Arvind's last question here that he just answered, integral to our hybrid cloud and AI platform centric model. It's all built around software overall.

是的，布倫特。非常感謝你的提問。我們顯然對我們的軟體性能非常滿意。這是我們整體策略的核心。軟體約佔 IBM 收入的 45%，占我們利潤的三分之二。最重要的是，對於 Arvind 剛剛回答的最後一個問題，這是我們以混合雲和 AI 平台為中心的模型不可或缺的一部分。這一切都是圍繞軟體而建構的。

By the way, you probably noticed, we did hit the Rule of 40 here in the third quarter. We feel confident that we continue to strategically reposition our business. And by the way, the margin inflection we've seen over the last three years in software has been both a combination of that revenue inflection and getting into more end markets with the strategic focus both organically and inorganically, that Arvind talked about, hybrid cloud, automation, data and by the way, the inflection of transaction processing which I'll remind all of you, is a high margin, high profit contribution overall.

順便說一句，你可能注意到了，我們在第三季確實達到了 40 法則。我們對繼續策略性地重新定位我們的業務充滿信心。順便說一句，過去三年我們在軟體領域看到的利潤率變化既是收入變化的結合，也是透過有機和無機的策略重點進入更多終端市場的結合，Arvind 談到了混合雲、自動化、數據，順便說一句，我要提醒大家的是，交易處理的變化是高利潤、高利潤貢獻。

So that, coupled with the productivity initiatives are enabling us with the financial flexibility to continue to invest in innovation while still generating margin and operating leverage going forward. So we feel pretty confident about that continuing. Similar to how I answered the earlier question, we see a lot of headroom in front of us on operating margin continuing both for IBM and for software.

因此，再加上生產力計劃，我們能夠具有財務靈活性，繼續投資創新，同時仍能產生未來的利潤和營運槓桿。所以我們對這種情況的持續下去非常有信心。與我回答之前問題的方式類似，我們看到 IBM 和軟體的營運利潤率仍有很大的空間。

Operator, let’s take the next question.

接線員，讓我們回答下一個問題。

Erik Woodring, Morgan Stanley.

艾瑞克‧伍德林，摩根士丹利。

Great. Thank you very much for taking my question. Jim, I wanted to maybe ask the Consulting AI question maybe a different way, which was last quarter, you had noted that Consulting AI projects were largely cannibalizing other areas of Consulting spend. And I'm just curious at what stage do you think these long-duration signings turn into recognized revenue and some materiality that, that could really impact the trajectory of the consulting business?

偉大的。非常感謝您回答我的問題。吉姆，我想也許以不同的方式問諮詢人工智慧問題，在上個季度，您注意到諮詢人工智慧專案在很大程度上蠶食了諮詢支出的其他領域。我只是很好奇，您認為這些長期簽約會在什麼階段轉化為公認的收入和一些實質內容，這可能真正影響諮詢業務的發展軌跡？

And then second, in what situation or environment would we see AI consulting projects turn from cannibal, -- is it -- cannibalizing the traditional business to becoming incremental to traditional Consulting?

其次，在什麼情況或環境下，我們會看到人工智慧諮詢專案從蠶食傳統業務轉變為傳統諮詢的增量？

Yeah. Great. And thanks, Erik, for the question overall. As we talked about, the maturity of Gen AI were very early in the cycle. The key for us is to win this early leadership position to be the Gen AI strategic provider of choice. And I think we are carrying our own to say the least right now, given the $2.5 billion book of business.

是的。偉大的。感謝埃里克提出的整個問題。正如我們所討論的，Gen AI 的成熟度處於週期的早期。對我們來說，關鍵是贏得早期的領導地位，成為首選的 Gen AI 策略提供者。考慮到 25 億美元的業務帳面價值，我認為至少可以說，我們目前正在承擔自己的責任。

Now, with that, higher duration, lower revenue yield, there is revenue yield in the quarter. I don't want to leave anyone without the impression. It's just about 3 to 4 points below what our traditional are because of the longer duration. If I just do some of the mathematics around it, very quick.

現在，隨著期限的延長，收入收益率的降低，本季的收入收益率有所提高。我不想給任何人留下沒有印象。由於持續時間較長，它只比我們的傳統低 3 到 4 個點。如果我只是圍繞它做一些數學計算，很快。

First, we're going to start wrapping on the pullback when we started talking about the short-term pause in discretionary spending as clients are looking at cost productivity to fuel investment into Gen AI projects that have longer duration. We'll start wrapping on that as we kind of get through the first half of next year, that's point number one.

首先，當我們開始談論可自由支配支出的短期暫停時，我們將開始結束回調，因為客戶正在考慮成本生產率，以推動對持續時間較長的人工智慧專案的投資。當我們度過明年上半年時，我們將開始總結這一點，這是第一點。

Point number two, that inflection curve, when we just look at what we experienced historically with the Red Hat generation, because in every technological shift human capital and consulting-based business, you're always going to see reprioritization. We've seen it with cloud technology shift. We've seen it with the Internet. We've seen it with globalization. And we've seen it when we went through the hybrid cloud side on Red Hat.

第二點，即拐點曲線，當我們回顧紅帽世代的歷史經驗時，因為在人力資本和基於諮詢的業務的每一次技術轉變中，你總是會看到優先順序的重新調整。我們已經透過雲端技術的轉變看到了這一點。我們已經透過網路看到了這一點。我們在全球化中看到了這一點。當我們了解紅帽上的混合雲端時，我們已經看到了這一點。

That kind of puts it in as Arvind and I have been talking here while we feel very confident in that upward growth inflection in consulting is going to be more of a second half '25 play as we move forward. And by the way, with that upward inflection, the key is backlog. We got to get the volume and demand here in the fourth quarter to Tony's question. and we got to still continue building that volume and demand in the first half because then that will build a multiplier effect that will be a nice, healthy consulting growth orientation like we were at about a year ago.

這就像 Arvind 和我一直在這裡談論的那樣，我們非常有信心，隨著我們的前進，諮詢業的向上增長拐點將更多地是 25 年下半年的表現。順便說一句，隨著這種向上的變化，關鍵是積壓。對於托尼的問題，我們必須了解第四季的銷售和需求。我們必須在上半年繼續增加數量和需求，因為這將產生乘數效應，就像我們大約一年前一樣，這將是一個良好、健康的諮詢成長方向。

Operator, let’s take one last question.

接線員，我們來回答最後一個問題。

Matt Swanson, RBC Capital.

馬特·斯旺森，加拿大皇家銀行資本。

Yeah. Thanks for taking my question. Arvind, you talked about the latest addition of the Granite models being 90% more cost efficient, may be trained in weeks. You've taken a really pragmatic kind of ROI-focused approach to Gen AI. Could you just talk a little bit about what you're hearing from enterprises and customers that are kind of supporting that direction of development?

是的。感謝您提出我的問題。 Arvind，您談到最新添加的 Granite 模型的成本效率提高了 90%，可能會在幾週內完成訓練。你們對 Gen AI 採取了一種非常務實、注重投資回報率的方法。您能簡單談談您從企業和客戶那裡聽到的支持這一發展方向的情況嗎？

Certainly, Matt, and thank you for that question, and we're picking up on the Granite models. Look, as I started talking to customers on this topic about 1.5 years ago, there was a lot of excitement around Gen AI deployment inside the enterprise. But you could see some people beginning to do the math and say: Hang on, if I really use this at full scale for all of the transactions that happen inside our enterprise, then the bill could easily become tens of millions a day, which very quickly becomes multiple billions a year and while that was advantageous to do it, they didn't see that kind of cost being affordable.

當然，馬特，謝謝你提出這個問題，我們正在討論花崗岩模型。看，當我大約 1.5 年前開始與客戶談論這個話題時，企業內部對 Gen AI 部署感到非常興奮。但你可以看到有些人開始計算並說：等等，如果我真的在我們企業內部發生的所有交易中全面使用它，那麼每天的賬單很容易就會達到數千萬，這非常很快就會變成每年數十億美元，雖然這樣做很有利，但他們認為這種成本是負擔不起的。

So we sat back and said, how big do these models need to be, because the size of the model determines or did determine previously performance as well as the cost. And so the question became, could we do a model that had tens of billions of parameters and was as good, but for a more constrained set of tasks.

所以我們坐下來說，這些模型需要多大，因為模型的大小決定或確實決定了先前的性能以及成本。所以問題變成了，我們能否建立一個具有數百億個參數並且同樣優秀的模型，但對於一組更受限制的任務。

I kind of be a little facetious. Look, if you're running a big consumer model and you have no idea, is the person going to ask you to summarize a document or a piece of X, which they do, or they're going to ask you to write a poem or a haiku or translate finish to French. Okay, you got to have a model that does all those things. But if we need a model that can summarize the business document, but at much higher quality, that allows us to bring a model with about in this case, to be precise, 8 billion to 30 billion parameters. That is as good as the biggest model for those tasks, but doesn't do all those other things.

我有點開玩笑。聽著，如果你正在運行一個大的消費者模型，而你不知道，人們會要求你總結一份文檔或一段 X，他們會這樣做，或者他們會要求你寫一首詩或俳句或將Finish翻譯成法文。好吧，你必須有一個可以完成所有這些事情的模型。但是，如果我們需要一個可以總結業務文件但品質要高得多的模型，那麼我們就可以在這種情況下引入一個模型，準確地說，包含 80 億到 300 億個參數。這與完成這些任務的最大模型一樣好，但不能完成所有其他事情。

But for the enterprise, that does 100% of their use case and literally, in this case, could run with 97% more efficiency. Then giving it to people with the indemnity with the licensing that they can actually refine it and they don't owe the refinements or any improvements in the model back to us, we think is a winning hand as enterprises deploy more and more of generative AI.

但對於企業來說，這可以完成 100% 的用例，在這種情況下，實際上可以提高 97% 的運作效率。然後將其提供給具有賠償資格的人，他們可以實際改進它，並且他們不欠我們模型的改進或任何改進，我們認為隨著企業部署越來越多的生成式人工智慧，這是一張勝利之手。

So with that, let me now wrap up the call. In the third quarter of '24, we accelerated our Software performance, including Red Hat. We are excited about the positioning of our portfolio and our growth prospects for 2025, and we look forward to sharing our progress with you as we close out the year. Thank you.

那麼，現在讓我結束這通通話。在 2024 年第三季度，我們加快了軟體效能，包括紅帽。我們對我們的投資組合定位和 2025 年的成長前景感到興奮，並期待在這一年結束時與您分享我們的進展。謝謝。

Thank you, Arvind. Operator, let me turn it back to you to close out the call.

謝謝你，阿爾溫德。接線員，讓我將其轉回給您以結束通話。

Thank you for participating on today's call. The conference has now ended. You may disconnect at this time.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。會議現已結束。此時您可以斷開連線。