International Business Machines Corp (IBM) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome and thank you for standing by.

歡迎您並感謝您的支持。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Today's conference is being recorded.

今天的會議正在錄製。

If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time.

如果您有任何異議，此時您可以斷開連接。

Now I will turn the meeting over to Olympia McNerney, IBM's Global Head of Investor Relations.

現在，我將會議交給 IBM 全球投資者關係主管 Olympia McNerney。

Olympia, you may begin.

奧林匹亞，你可以開始了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I'd like to welcome you to IBM's fourth-quarter 2024 earnings presentation.

歡迎您參加 IBM 2024 年第四季財報。

I'm Olympia McNerney, and I'm here today with Arvind, Krishna, IBM's Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer; and Jim Kavanaugh, IBM's Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

我是 Olympia McNerney，今天和我一起來這裡的還有 IBM 董事長、總裁兼執行長 Arvind Krishna；以及 IBM 資深副總裁兼財務長 Jim Kavanaugh。

Will post today's prepared remarks on the IBM website within a couple of hours and a replay will be available at this time tomorrow.

將在幾個小時內將今天的準備好的演講發佈在 IBM 網站上，並將於明天此時提供重播。

To provide additional information to our investors, our presentation includes certain non-GAAP measures.

為了向我們的投資者提供更多信息，我們的報告包含某些非公認會計準則指標。

For example, all of our references to revenue in signings growth at constant currency.

例如，我們在提到簽約收入成長時，均以固定匯率計算。

We provided reconciliation charts for these and other non-GAAP financial measures at the end of the presentation, which is posted to our investor website.

我們在演示結束時提供了這些和其他非 GAAP 財務指標的對帳圖表，並發佈在我們的投資者網站上。

Finally, some comments made in this presentation may be considered forward-looking under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

最後，根據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法》，本次演講中的一些評論可能被視為前瞻性的。

These statements involve factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially.

這些聲明涉及可能導致我們的實際結果大不相同的因素。

Additional information about these factors is included in the company's SEC filings.

有關這些因素的更多資​​訊包含在該公司向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件中。

So with that, I'll turn the call over to Arvind.

因此，我將把電話轉給 Arvind。

Thank you for joining us today.

感謝您今天加入我們。

Let me start by reflecting on our strong close to 2024 and performance over the mid-term model.

首先，讓我回顧一下我們在 2024 年的強勁收官以及中期模型的表現。

Then get into more detail on the execution of our strategy.

然後更詳細地介紹我們戰略的執行。

We are pleased with the progress we've made in 2024, delivering revenue growth of 3% and $12.7 billion of free cash flow.

我們對 2024 年的進展感到滿意，實現營收成長 3% 和 127 億美元的自由現金流。

We saw continued acceleration in software at our highest level of cash flow generation in many years.

我們看到軟體業務持續加速發展，現金流創收達到多年來的最高水準。

As we close out the mid-term model we laid out at the end of 2021, I am proud of our achievements.

當我們結束 2021 年底制定的中期模型時，我為我們所取得的成就感到自豪。

We met or exceeded our target metrics for revenue growth, profitability, and free cash flow growth.

我們達到或超過了收入成長、獲利能力和自由現金流成長的目標指標。

We set out a plan for mid-single digit growth and we delivered on it, growing our revenue by 6% CAGR over this period.

我們制定了中等個位數成長計劃並實現了該計劃，在此期間我們的收入實現了 6% 的複合年增長率。

All of our segments delivered revenue growth in line with our model over the last three years.

過去三年，我們所有部門的收入都按照我們的模型成長。

Software grew ahead of our goal of mid-single digits, and this momentum continued with 9% growth in 2024.

軟體的成長速度超出了我們設定的中等個位數的目標，而這一勢頭將在 2024 年繼續保持 9% 的成長率。

We committed to accelerate the growth of Red Hat and we delivered double digits for the year.

我們致力於加速紅帽的發展，今年我們的業績實現了兩位數的成長。

Infrastructure performed in line with our model as we invested in innovation and transform the business model.

由於我們投資創新並轉變商業模式，基礎設施的表現符合我們的模式。

Consulting met the model for high single-digit growth although we acknowledge 2024 was below model.

儘管我們承認 2024 年的成長低於模型，但諮詢業務仍符合高個位數成長模型。

We are confident that our investment in partnerships and skills as well as our early leadership and GenAI, position us to accelerate consulting growth as we move forward.

我們相信，我們對合作夥伴關係和技能的投資以及我們早期的領導力和 GenAI，使我們能夠在未來加速諮詢業務的成長。

Overall, our technology momentum and consulting signings bolster our confidence in our future performance.

總體而言，我們的技術動能和諮詢簽約增強了我們對未來表現的信心。

Before getting deeper into our execution, I'll make a few comments on the macroeconomic environment.

在深入了解我們的執行情況之前，我想對宏觀經濟環境發表一些評論。

As we look at the broader environment, IBM's mission to help businesses leverage technology, to both scale revenue and grow profitably, is more critical than ever.

放眼更廣闊的環境，IBM 的使命是幫助企業利用科技來擴大收入並實現獲利成長，這項使命比以往任何時候都更重要。

Geopolitical tensions, interest rate volatility, supply chain vulnerabilities, demographic shifts, evolving cyber threats, operating headwinds of businesses worldwide.

地緣政治緊張局勢、利率波動、供應鏈脆弱性、人口結構變化、不斷演變的網路威脅、全球企業經營困難。

In this context, technology is key to drive sustainable growth.

在這種背景下，科技是推動永續成長的關鍵。

IBM's combination of advanced technology and deep consulting expertise positions us to uniquely deliver end-to-end business transformations.

IBM 將先進的技術與深厚的諮詢專業知識相結合，使我們能夠以獨特的方式實現端到端的業務轉型。

We ended the year content on enhancing our portfolio.

我們在年底致力於增強我們的產品組合。

Software is now about 45% of our business with more than $15 billion of ARR growing at double digits.

軟體現在約占我們業務的 45%，ARR 超過 150 億美元，並以兩位數的速度成長。

We delivered strong and accelerating revenue growth of 11% in the fourth quarter, which includes eight points of organic growth and strength across the portfolio.

我們在第四季度實現了強勁且加速的營收成長，達到 11%，其中包括整個投資組合 8 個百分點的有機成長和強勁成長。

This growth was led by Red Hat, up 17% in the quarter.

這一成長主要由 Red Hat 推動，本季成長了 17%。

Our early leadership in generative AI, and the Consulting Advantage platform have positioned us well in today's evolving market.

我們在生成人工智慧領域的早期領導地位以及諮詢優勢平台使我們在當今不斷發展的市場中佔據有利地位。

In infrastructure, z16 is our most successful program in history, highlighting customer adoption and continued reliance on the mainframe.

在基礎設施方面，z16 是我們歷史上最成功的項目，凸顯了客戶的採用和對大型主機的持續依賴。

We see more opportunities ahead as our infrastructure solutions play a crucial role in helping clients bring AI workload closer to the data and we will launch z17 in the middle of 2025.

我們看到未來有更多的機會，因為我們的基礎設施解決方案在幫助客戶將 AI 工作負載更接近數據方面發揮著至關重要的作用，我們將在 2025 年中期推出 z17。

Let me now address our progress in generative AI.

現在讓我談談我們在生成人工智慧方面的進展。

We continue to gain momentum, with our GenAI book of business growing to over $5 billion inception to date, up by about $2 billion quarter over quarter.

我們持續保持強勁發展勢頭，迄今為止，GenAI 業務規模已成長至 50 多億美元，季增約 20 億美元。

Approximately one-fifth of this book of business comes from software and the remaining four-fifths is Consulting.

這筆業務中大約有五分之一來自軟體，剩下的五分之四來自諮詢。

Our AI portfolio is tailored to meet the diverse needs of enterprise clients, enabling them to leverage a mix of models: IBM's, their own open model from Hugging Face.

我們的 AI 產品組合旨在滿足企業客戶的不同需求，使他們能夠利用多種模式：IBM 的模式、Hugging Face 自己的開放模式。

Meta, and Mistral.

Meta 和 Mistral。

IBM's Granite models designed for specific purposes; a 90% more cost efficient than larger alternatives.

IBM 為特定目的設計的 Granite 型號；與更大規模的替代方案相比，成本效率提高 90%。

Additionally, RHEL AI and OpenShift AI provide clients with a consistent and scalable AI foundation built on open-source technology.

此外，RHEL AI 和 OpenShift AI 為客戶提供了基於開源技術構建的一致且可擴展的 AI 基礎。

This quarter, we saw strong traction in our watsonx middleware solutions and AI assistants, including watsonx.gov, watsonx.ai, watsonx Code Assistant for Z, watsonx Orchestrate, as well as products embedding AI such as Concert.

本季度，我們的 watsonx 中間件解決方案和 AI 助理獲得了強勁發展，包括 watsonx.gov、watsonx.ai、watsonx Code Assistant for Z、watsonx Orchestrate，以及嵌入 AI 的產品（如 Concert）。

And Consulting remains key to designing and implementing AI use cases, driving watsonx deployment.

諮詢仍然是設計和實施 AI 用例、推動 Watsonx 部署的關鍵。

Through the year, we introduced key innovations that are resonating with clients.

這一年，我們推出了多項引起顧客共鳴的重要創新。

This quarter, we launched OpenShift Virtualization Engine to meet growing virtualization demand.

本季度，我們推出了 OpenShift 虛擬化引擎，以滿足不斷增長的虛擬化需求。

In infrastructure, the Telum II processor enhances IBM Z's AI capabilities and performance.

在基礎架構方面，Telum II 處理器增強了 IBM Z 的 AI 能力和效能。

We just announced RISE with SAP on IBM Power Virtual Server, offering the fastest and easiest migration from on-premises to cloud for the 10,000-plus clients who use SAP and IBM Power.

我們剛剛在 IBM Power Virtual Server 上宣布了 RISE with SAP，為使用 SAP 和 IBM Power 的 10,000 多名客戶提供從本地到雲端的最快捷、最輕鬆的遷移。

The Consulting Advantage platform is integrating our technology and industry expertise to drive business transformation.

諮詢優勢平台正在整合我們的技術和產業專業知識來推動業務轉型。

With more than 75 quantum systems deployed worldwide, our focus on emerging innovation is clear.

我們在全球部署了超過 75 個量子系統，對新興創新的關註十分明確。

This quarter, we announced a collaboration with the State of Illinois to establish a National Quantum Algorithm Center in Chicago.

本季度，我們宣布與伊利諾州合作，在芝加哥建立國家量子演算法中心。

M&A remains a key enabler of our strategy.

併購仍然是我們策略的關鍵推動因素。

The acquisition of Neural Magic strengthens our AI solutions with advanced model optimization.

收購 Neural Magic 透過先進的模型優化增強了我們的 AI 解決方案。

Clients worldwide cross IBM to lead transformations.

全球各地的客戶跨 IBM 引領轉型。

Notable examples this quarter include NatWest and Lockheed Martin, leveraging our Granite models for advanced AI applications.

本季值得注意的例子包括 NatWest 和 Lockheed Martin，它們利用我們的 Granite 模型開發先進的 AI 應用。

L'Oreal is partnering with IBM to use our AI, consulting, and research capabilities to develop foundation models for cosmetics formulation.

歐萊雅正在與 IBM 合作，利用我們的人工智慧、諮詢和研究能力來開發化妝品配方的基礎模型。

We also collaborated with UFC and Ferrari, helping them tap into IBM’s AI and consulting expertise to drive operational efficiency.

我們也與 UFC 和法拉利合作，幫助他們利用 IBM 的 AI 和諮詢專業知識來提高營運效率。

Announced earlier this month, IBM and the UK Home Office will partner on the Emergency Services Network, supporting more than 300,000 emergency responders in Great Britain.

本月初，IBM 和英國內政部宣布將在緊急服務網路上展開合作，為英國 30 多萬名緊急救援人員提供支援。

Our ecosystem continues to expand as we strengthen our partnerships with leading technology providers, including AMD, Palo Alto Networks, SAP, Amazon, Microsoft, and CoreWeave.

隨著我們加強與 AMD、Palo Alto Networks、SAP、亞馬遜、微軟和 CoreWeave 等領先技術供應商的合作，我們的生態系統不斷擴大。

These partnerships allow us to go innovate and deliver greater value to clients.

這些合作關係使我們能夠不斷創新並為客戶提供更大的價值。

Before I conclude, let me touch on our outlook.

在結束之前，請容許我談談我們的觀點。

We see continued momentum in our business, driven by our focused strategy, enhanced portfolio and culture of innovation.

在專注的策略、增強的產品組合和創新文化的推動下，我們的業務持續保持良好發展勢頭。

For 2025, we expect revenue growth inflecting higher to 5% plus and about $13.5 billion of free cash flow.

到 2025 年，我們預計營收成長將上升至 5% 以上，自由現金流約為 135 億美元。

I look forward to sharing more details at our upcoming Investor Day on February 4.

我期待在 2 月 4 日即將到來的投資者日上分享更多細節。

I will now hand over to Jim to walk you through the details of the quarter.

現在我將交給吉姆來向大家介紹本季的詳細資訊。

Jim, over to you.

吉姆，交給你了。

Thanks, Arvind.

謝謝，Arvind。

For the full year, we delivered about $63 billion in revenue, $11.2 billion of operating pre-tax income, and operating earnings per share of $10.33. And we generated $12.7 billion of free cash flow, our strongest level of free cash flow generation in many years and our highest reported free cash flow margin in history.

全年，我們實現營業收入約 630 億美元，稅前營業收入 112 億美元，每股營業收益 10.33 美元。我們產生了 127 億美元的自由現金流，這是多年來最強勁的自由現金流產生水平，也是我們歷史上最高的自由現金流利潤率。

Revenue growth, combined with 120 basis points of operating pre-tax margin expansion, drove 9% operating pre-tax profit growth, 14% free cash flow growth, and 7% operating diluted earnings per share growth.

收入成長，加上營業稅前利潤率擴大 120 個基點，推動營業稅前利潤成長 9%，自由現金流成長 14%，營業攤薄每股收益成長 7%。

We are pleased with these results, delivering durable revenue growth in our re-positioned business and exceeding our expectations on profitability, free cash flow and earnings per share.

我們對這些結果感到滿意，重新定位的業務實現了持久的收入成長，並且超出了我們對獲利能力、自由現金流和每股盈餘的預期。

Revenue performance for the year was led by Software, up 9%, with strength across our portfolio.

本年度的營收表現由軟體主導，成長 9%，這得益於我們整個產品組合的強勁表現。

We achieved Rule of 40, driven by the combination of accelerating growth and margin expansion throughout the year.

在全年加速成長和利潤率擴大的共同推動下，我們實現了 40 法則。

Consulting revenue was up 1%, and continued to be impacted by a dynamic market environment as clients reprioritize spending.

諮詢收入成長了 1%，由於客戶重新調整支出優先順序，繼續受到動態市場環境的影響。

While Infrastructure was down 3% reflecting product cycle dynamics, we delivered more than 120% program to program growth for z16, our most successful program in history.

雖然基礎設施下降了 3%，反映了產品週期動態，但我們為 z16 實現了超過 120% 的專案成長，這是我們歷史上最成功的專案。

Our portfolio mix, operating leverage, and yield from productivity initiatives generated strong operating gross margin and operating profit performance.

我們的投資組合、營業槓桿以及生產力措施帶來的收益產生了強勁的營業毛利率和營業利潤表現。

For the full year, we expanded operating gross profit margin by 130 basis points.

全年，我們的營業毛利率擴大了130個基點。

Our operating pre-tax margin expanded by 120 basis points, ahead of our expectations and well above our model.

我們的稅前營業利潤率擴大了 120 個基點，超出了我們的預期，也遠高於我們的模型。

These results represent our highest levels of operating gross margin and operating pretax margin in many years.

這些業績代表了我們多年來最高的營業毛利率和營業稅前利潤率。

Now, turning to a deeper dive on the quarter.

現在，讓我們深入探討一下本季的情況。

We generated $17.6 billion of revenue, up over 2% at constant currency and ahead of our expectation.

我們創造了 176 億美元的收入，以固定匯率計算成長超過 2%，並且超出了我們的預期。

Software growth accelerated to 11%, with strength across our key categories of Red Hat, Automation, Data & AI, and Transaction Processing.

軟體成長加速至 11%，其中紅帽、自動化、數據與人工智慧以及交易處理等主要類別表現強勁。

Consulting was down 1%.

諮詢業務下降了 1%。

This quarter we achieved record levels of signings and strong sequential growth in our generative AI book of business reflecting our early leadership in the areas our clients are prioritizing.

本季度，我們的生成式人工智慧業務的簽約量達到了創紀錄的水平，並實現了強勁的環比增長，反映了我們在客戶優先考慮的領域的早期領導地位。

Infrastructure was down 6%, reflecting product cycle dynamics in our eleventh quarter of z16.

基礎設施下降了 6%，反映了 z16 第 11 季的產品週期動態。

Looking at our profit metrics, in the fourth quarter we expanded operating gross margin by 50 basis points and operating pre-tax margin by 40 basis points.

從我們的利潤指標來看，第四季度我們的營業毛利率提高了 50 個基點，營業稅前利潤率提高了 40 個基點。

We are pleased with this strong performance driven by our portfolio mix, operating leverage, and ongoing productivity initiatives similar to the full year.

我們對這一強勁表現感到滿意，這得益於我們的投資組合、營運槓桿以及與全年類似的持續生產力舉措。

This allowed for continued investments to drive innovation in our portfolio which you can see in our higher R&D expense, up 13%.

這使得我們能夠持續投資以推動投資組合的創新，從我們的研發費用增加（成長了 13%）就可以看出。

Our operating tax rate was 14%, which is flat versus last year.

我們的營業稅率為14%，與去年持平。

And our operating earnings per share of $3.92 was up 1%.

我們的每股營業利潤為 3.92 美元，成長 1%。

For the full year, we generated $12.7 billion of free cash flow, up $1.5 billion and growing 14%.

全年我們創造了 127 億美元的自由現金流，增加 15 億美元，成長 14%。

The largest driver of this growth comes from adjusted EBITDA, up about $900 million year over year.

這一成長的最大動力來自於調整後的 EBITDA，年增約 9 億美元。

We realized $500 million in proceeds from the Palo Alto QRadar transaction, which was a small contribution to free cash flow given the payout of structural actions and foregone profit.

我們從 Palo Alto QRadar 交易中獲得了 5 億美元的收益，考慮到結構性行動的支出和放棄的利潤，這對自由現金流的貢獻很小。

We also delivered sustainable lower cash requirements through changes in our retirement plans.

我們也透過改變退休計畫實現了可持續的較低現金需求。

As we close out the mid-term model we introduced in 2021, we’ve grown free cash flow faster than revenue in each of the last three years, have exited 2024 with our highest free cash flow margin in reported history, and our free cash flow run rate is above our mid-term model.

隨著我們結束2021 年推出的中期模型，我們在過去三年中每年的自由現金流增長都快於收入增長，在2024 年結束時，我們的自由現金流利潤率創歷史新高，我們的自由現金流動利​​潤率創歷史新高。

In terms of cash uses for the year, we invested over $3 billion on acquisitions, and we returned just over $6 billion to shareholders in the form of dividends.

就本年度的現金使用而言，我們在收購上投資了超過 30 億美元，並以股息的形式向股東返還了超過 60 億美元。

Looking at the balance sheet, we ended the year with a strong liquidity position with cash of $14.8 billion, which is up $1.3 billion year over year.

從資產負債表來看，今年底我們的流動性狀況強勁，現金達 148 億美元，較前一年增加 13 億美元。

Our debt balance ended the year down $1.6 billion at $55 billion, including approximately $12 billion of debt associated with our financing business.

我們的債務餘額在年底下降了 16 億美元，至 550 億美元，其中包括與我們的融資業務相關的約 120 億美元的債務。

Turning to the segments, Software revenue growth accelerated to 11% in the fourth quarter, driven by strength across the portfolio, with growth of 17% for Red Hat, 16% for Automation, 11% for Transaction Processing and 5% for both Data & AI and Security.

從各部門來看，第四季軟體營收成長加速至 11%，這得益於整個產品組合的強勁成長，其中紅帽成長 17%，自動化成長 16%，交易處理成長 1​​1%，資料和人工智慧和安全。

We are pleased with how we finished the year, exceeding the Rule of 40, and the growth driver expectations we set back in January.

我們對今年的業績表現感到滿意，我們超越了 40 法則以及我們在一月份設定的成長動力預期。

Let me dive in a little deeper on each of these growth drivers.

讓我更深入地探討每一個成長動力。

We continue to see momentum in Red Hat with fourth-quarter revenue growth of 17%, fueled by six consecutive quarters of double-digit bookings growth.

我們繼續看到紅帽的強勁發展勢頭，第四季營收成長 17%，這得益於連續六個季度兩位數的預訂量成長。

This performance reflects the continued demand for our hybrid cloud solutions as clients are prioritizing application modernization on OpenShift containers and Ansible automation to optimize their IT spend and reduce operational complexity.

這一表現反映了對我們的混合雲解決方案的持續需求，因為客戶優先考慮在 OpenShift 容器和 Ansible 自動化上進行應用程式現代化，以優化他們的 IT 支出並降低營運複雜性。

OpenShift is now a $1.4 billion ARR business, growing about 25%, and we continue to see increased volume in OpenShift Virtualization engagements.

OpenShift 現在是一家價值 14 億美元的 ARR 業務，成長率約為 25%，我們繼續看到 OpenShift 虛擬化專案的數量不斷增加。

In addition to the strength in subscriptions, we saw a recovery in the consumption-based services business.

除了訂閱量的強勁成長之外，我們還看到消費型服務業務的復甦。

Looking forward, Red Hat’s six-month revenue under contract, a reflection of the strong bookings performance mentioned, continues to grow in the mid-teens.

展望未來，紅帽的六個月合約收入（反映了上述強勁的預訂業績）將繼續保持中等水平的成長。

We delivered strong results in our recurring revenue base and are seeing momentum from innovation across our portfolio.

我們在經常性收入基礎上取得了強勁的業績，並且整個投資組合的創新勢頭強勁。

Our Hybrid Platform & Solutions ARR was $15.3 billion, up 11%.

我們的混合平台和解決方案 ARR 為 153 億美元，成長 11%。

Transaction Processing delivered another strong quarter, driven by growing capacity demands, solid renewal rates, and increasing contribution from our generative AI product, watsonx Code Assistant for Z.

交易處理業務又一個季度表現強勁，這得益於不斷增長的容量需求、穩定的續約率，以及我們的生成式 AI 產品 watsonx Code Assistant for Z 的貢獻不斷增加。

We continue to introduce new products, which are making a meaningful impact on Software’s results.

我們不斷推出新產品，對軟體的業績產生了重大影響。

We have confidence in our portfolio with our market leading businesses centered around Hybrid Cloud, Automation, Data, and Transaction Processing.

我們對我們的投資組合充滿信心，我們的市場領先業務集中在混合雲、自動化、數據和交易處理。

In the quarter, about eight points of our growth was organic, led by demand for our generative AI products like Concert and our AI assistants.

本季度，我們的成長中有大約 8 個百分點是有機成長，這主要得益於對我們的生成式 AI 產品（如 Concert）和 AI 助理的需求。

We launched new products such as the next generation of watsonx Code Assistant that provides coding support for multiple languages, and Guardium Quantum Safe that helps organizations monitor and manage their cryptographic security to fix vulnerabilities.

我們推出了新產品，例如提供多種語言編碼支援的下一代 watsonx Code Assistant 和幫助組織監控和管理其加密安全以修復漏洞的 Guardium Quantum Safe。

And these investments in generative AI are paying off, with the Software AI book of business reaching about $1 billion inception-to-date in the fourth quarter.

這些對生成式人工智慧的投資正在獲得回報，第四季度迄今為止，軟體人工智慧業務帳簿已達到約 10 億美元。

Our performance continues to benefit from our recent acquisitions.

我們的業績繼續受益於最近的收購。

We are seeing growing contribution from the StreamSets and webMethods assets acquired in the second quarter.

我們看到第二季收購的 StreamSets 和 webMethods 資產的貢獻不斷成長。

And at the end of 2024, we closed the acquisition of Neural Magic, which strengthens our AI capabilities in performance engineering and model optimization.

2024 年底，我們完成了對 Neural Magic 的收購，這增強了我們在性能工程和模型優化方面的 AI 能力。

And we are looking forward to the opportunities that the pending HashiCorp acquisition will bring.

我們期待即將到來的HashiCorp收購將帶來的機會。

Looking at Software profit for the quarter, gross margin expanded, and segment profit was up over 220 basis points year to year, reflecting operating leverage driven by our revenue performance.

綜觀本季的軟體利潤，毛利率擴大，分部利潤年增超過220個基點，反映了我們的營收表現所推動的經營槓桿。

In Consulting, revenue was down 1%.

諮詢業務收入下降了 1%。

Throughout the year we have operated in a dynamic macroeconomic environment.

全年我們一直在動態的宏觀經濟環境中運作。

We continue to see clients reprioritizing their IT spending toward digital transformation and AI initiatives for cost optimization and operational efficiency as we wrap on a strong above market performance in 2023.

隨著我們在 2023 年實現強勁高於市場的業績，我們繼續看到客戶將其 IT 支出優先用於數位轉型和人工智慧計劃，以優化成本並提高營運效率。

Our focus remains on rapidly evolving our offerings and enhancing investments in skills and capabilities to align with these priorities.

我們的重點仍然是快速發展我們的產品並加強對技能和能力的投資以滿足這些優先事項。

Our ability to address client demands drove signings growth of 23% in the quarter, our highest fourth quarter signings in recent history.

我們滿足客戶需求的能力推動了本季簽約量成長23%，這是我們近期史上第四季簽約量最高的一次。

Generative AI contributed about $1.5 billion of new bookings in the quarter as clients see the value our extensive industry and enterprise AI expertise can bring to accelerating their digital transformations.

生成式人工智慧在本季度貢獻了約 15 億美元的新訂單，因為客戶看到了我們廣泛的行業和企業人工智慧專業知識可以為加速他們的數位轉型帶來的價值。

This strong signings performance takes our book-to-bill ratio up to 1.21 over the last twelve months.

強勁的簽約表現使我們過去十二個月的訂單出貨比上升至 1.21。

Our overall backlog remains healthy, up 8% year over year and our backlog erosion levels remain stable.

我們的整體積壓訂單仍保持健康，年增 8%，且積壓訂單侵蝕水準保持穩定。

Our Red Hat practice delivered another record-breaking quarter of signings and double-digit revenue growth.

我們的紅帽業務再創季度簽約記錄，並實現兩位數的營收成長。

And we now have annual revenue of nearly $3 billion.

現在我們的年收入接近30億美元。

In the quarter, strategic partnerships were a growth contributor both in signings and revenue with solid performance from partnerships with AWS and Azure.

本季度，策略合作夥伴關係是簽約量和收入的成長貢獻者，與 AWS 和 Azure 的合作表現穩健。

We are actively investing to enhance our skills and capabilities to address our clients’ top priorities with acquisitions like Accelalpha, a global Oracle services provider, which closed in the fourth quarter.

我們正在積極投資，以提高我們的技能和能力，透過收購來滿足客戶的首要任務，例如第四季度完成的對全球 Oracle 服務供應商 Accelalpha 的收購。

And earlier this month we announced our intent to acquire Applications Technology Software, a consultancy known for driving business transformation with Oracle Cloud Applications.

本月初，我們宣布了收購應用程式技術軟體的意向，這是一家以透過 Oracle 雲端應用程式推動業務轉型而聞名的顧問公司。

Turning to our lines of business, Business Transformation revenue grew 2% driven by continued strength in transformational projects for data, finance, and supply chain.

談到我們的業務線，業務轉型收入成長了 2%，這得益於數據、財務和供應鏈轉型專案的持續強勁成長。

Both Technology Consulting and Application Operations declined in the quarter.

本季度，技術諮詢和應用營運均出現下滑。

Similar to last quarter, there was strength in cloud-based application services across modernization, development, and management but we continued to see clients reprioritize spending away from on-prem customized services.

與上一季類似，基於雲端的應用服務在現代化、開發和管理方面表現強勁，但我們繼續看到客戶重新調整支出優先級，不再專注於內部客製化服務。

Looking at Consulting profit, we delivered segment profit margin of nearly 12%, a sequential expansion of almost one point, as we continue to realize the benefits of our productivity actions.

從諮詢利潤來看，我們實現了近 12% 的分部利潤率，比上一季擴大了近一個個百分點，因為我們繼續實現了提高生產力行動帶來的好處。

Moving to the Infrastructure segment, revenue was down 6%, reflecting product cycle dynamics.

轉向基礎設施部門，收入下降了 6%，反映了產品週期動態。

Hybrid Infrastructure was down 8% and Infrastructure Support was flat.

混合基礎設施下降 8%，基礎設施支援持平。

Within Hybrid Infrastructure, IBM Z revenue is down 20% in the quarter.

在混合基礎設施方面，IBM Z 營收本季下降了 20%。

This is the eleventh quarter of z16 availability, and the combination of resiliency, reliability, and security continues to resonate with clients.

這是 z16 上市的第 11 個季度，其彈性、可靠性和安全性的結合繼續引起客戶的共鳴。

Nearly three years in, this product cycle has outpaced prior cycles and program to date installed MIPs have increased over 30% as clients’ capacity needs continue to grow.

近三年來，該產品週期已超過先前的周期，隨著客戶的容量需求不斷增長，迄今為止安裝的 MIP 計劃已增加 30% 以上。

IBM Z remains an enduring platform for mission critical workloads, driving not just hardware adoption but also the related software, storage and services.

IBM Z 仍然是關鍵任務工作負載的持久平台，不僅推動硬體採用，還推動相關軟體、儲存和服務。

Distributed Infrastructure revenue grew 2%.

分散式基礎設施收入成長2%。

This performance was fueled by double-digit growth in Storage, as we introduced new innovation in the quarter designed to give clients the ability to scale storage capacity to meet growing data demands to support the next generation of AI workloads and projects.

這一業績得益於儲存的兩位數成長，因為我們在本季度推出了新的創新，旨在使客戶能夠擴展儲存容量，以滿足不斷增長的數據需求，以支援下一代人工智慧工作負載和專案.

For Infrastructure profit, we expanded gross profit margin nearly two points sequentially.

對於基礎設施利潤，我們的毛利率較上月擴大了近兩個個百分點。

Our segment profit margin was down 320 basis points in the quarter, reflecting where we are in the product cycle and continued investments in innovation.

本季我們的分部利潤率下降了 320 個基點，反映了我們處於產品週期的階段以及對創新的持續投資。

For the full year our segment profit margin was 17.5%.

全年我們的分部利潤率為17.5%。

Now, let me bring it back up to the IBM level to wrap up.

現在，讓我將主題轉回 IBM 層面來做總結。

As Arvind mentioned we met or exceeded our mid-term model target metrics for revenue growth, profitability, and free cash flow growth.

正如 Arvind 所提到的，我們達到或超過了收入成長、獲利能力和自由現金流成長的中期模型目標指標。

And we have fundamentally repositioned our business to a software-led, integrated platform.

我們從根本上將業務重新定位為以軟體為主導的整合平台。

Let me now turn to 2025 guidance, and our two-key measures of success, revenue growth and free cash flow.

現在讓我來談談 2025 年的指導，以及我們成功的兩個關鍵指標：營收成長和自由現金流。

We expect constant currency revenue growth inflecting higher to 5%-plus.

我們預計貨幣收入成長將持續上升至 5% 以上。

And we expect to grow free cash flow faster than revenue growth with about $13.5 billion of free cash flow.

我們預計自由現金流的成長速度將超過收入的成長速度，自由現金流約為 135 億美元。

Given the continued strengthening of the dollar, we expect currency to be about a two-point headwind to revenue growth for the year.

鑑於美元持續走強，我們預期匯率將對今年的營收成長造成約兩個百分點的阻力。

Our revenue expectations are underpinned by accelerating growth across our business.

我們的收入預期受到整個業務加速成長的支持。

In Software, given the strength of our portfolio, investment in innovation and the contribution from acquisitions, we expect revenue growth approaching double digits.

在軟體方面，鑑於我們產品組合的實力、對創新的投資以及收購的貢獻，我們預期營收成長將接近兩位數。

We continue to see strength in Red Hat, with mid-teens growth for the year.

我們繼續看到紅帽的強勁實力，今年其成長率達到了十五六成。

In Consulting, the combination of our backlog levels, record signings in the fourth quarter, and our book of business in GenAI support an acceleration in growth to low-single digits.

在諮詢業務方面，我們的積壓訂單水準、第四季度的創紀錄簽約量以及 GenAI 的業務帳簿相結合，支持業務成長加速至個位數。

And with our new mainframe launch in mid-2025, we expect Infrastructure to be about a point contribution to IBM’s overall revenue growth.

隨著我們新的大型主機於 2025 年中期推出，我們預計基礎設施將為 IBM 的整體收入成長貢獻約一個百分點。

For the full year, we expect IBM’s operating pre-tax margin to expand by over half a point.

我們預計 IBM 全年稅前營業利潤率將成長半個百分點以上。

Portfolio mix and ongoing productivity initiatives continue to drive margin expansion, mitigated by the impact of dilution from acquisitions.

投資組合和持續的生產力措施繼續推動利潤率擴大，但收購帶來的稀釋影響有所緩解。

Our tax rate for the year should be in the mid-teens and as always, the timing of discrete items can cause the rate to vary within the year.

我們今年的稅率應該在十五六成左右，而且一如既往，單項物品的發生時間可能會導致稅率在一年內發生變化。

For free cash flow, we expect to generate about $13.5 billion in 2025.

對於自由現金流，我們預計 2025 年將產生約 135 億美元。

Given the strong fundamentals of our business, we expect double-digit adjusted EBITDA growth which is the primary driver of our free cash flow.

鑑於我們業務基本面強勁，我們預計調整後的 EBITDA 將實現兩位數成長，這是我們自由現金流的主要驅動力。

This will be offset by cash tax headwinds and higher CapEx.

這將被現金稅收阻力和更高的資本支出所抵消。

Our productivity initiatives have enabled investments in innovation, skills, and go-to-market capabilities including our ecosystem.

我們的生產力措施促進了對創新、技能和市場進入能力（包括我們的生態系統）的投資。

We have accomplished this while simultaneously growing our operating profit margin and free cash flow, which in turn has increased our financial flexibility.

我們實現了這一目標，同時提高了我們的營業利潤率和自由現金流，從而提高了我們的財務靈活性。

This remains our playbook going forward, having executed on $3.5 billion of annual run rate savings exiting 2024, supporting our strong free cash flow growing in excess of revenue.

這仍然是我們未來的策略，到 2024 年，我們已實現了每年 35 億美元的運行率節約，支持我們強勁的自由現金流增長超過收入。

Looking to the first quarter, I expect our constant currency revenue growth rate to be similar to the fourth quarter.

展望第一季度，我預期我們的固定貨幣收入成長率將與第四季相似。

We expect workforce rebalancing fairly consistent with the prior year.

我們預期勞動力重新平衡將與去年基本一致。

We are also wrapping on the $241 million gain from the divestiture of The Weather Company.

我們也即將實現從 The Weather Company 剝離業務中獲得的 2.41 億美元收益。

Excluding the year-over-year impact of the gain, we expect about 50 basis points of operating pre-tax margin expansion.

除去同比收益的影響，我們預計營業稅前利潤率將擴大約 50 個基點。

It is hard to predict discrete events, but our best view is that the first quarter tax rate could be a few points lower than the full-year rate, but still a headwind over last year.

很難預測離散事件，但我們最好的看法是，第一季的稅率可能比全年稅率低幾個點，但與去年相比仍是一個阻力。

In summary, we have delivered durable growth over the mid-term model and expect to drive an upwards inflection.

總而言之，我們在中期模型中實現了持久的成長，並有望推動經濟向上拐點。

We have repositioned our business and are excited about 2025 and beyond.

我們已經重新定位了我們的業務，並對 2025 年及以後的未來充滿期待。

We look forward to discussing more details at our upcoming Investor Day on February 4.

我們期待在 2 月 4 日即將舉行的投資者日上討論更多細節。

Arvind and I are now happy to take your questions.

Arvind 和我現在很高興回答您的問題。

Olympia, let’s get started.

奧林匹亞，我們開始吧。

Thank you, Jim.

謝謝你，吉姆。

Before we begin the Q&A, I'd like to mention a couple of items.

在我們開始問答之前，我想提幾點。

First, supplemental information is provided at the end of the presentation.

首先，在演示結束時提供了補充資訊。

And then second, as always, I'd ask you to refrain from multi-part questions.

其次，與往常一樣，我請你們不要問多部分的問題。

Operator, please open up for questions.

接線員，請回答問題。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指令）

Amit Daryanani, Evercore ISI.

Amit Daryanani，Evercore ISI。

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您回答我的問題。

Good afternoon, everyone.

大家下午好。

Can you just talk a little bit about what they think about the count to 25 guidance you folks have provided if you could just provide some context around linearity and how that could play out.

您能否稍微談談他們對您們提供的計數到 25 的指導的看法，如果您可以提供一些有關線性的背景信息以及它如何發揮作用。

Maybe you can talk about H1 versus H2 perspective, given some of the Consulting and mainstream tailwinds could be a bit more back half.

也許您可以談談 H1 與 H2 的觀點，因為一些諮詢和主流的順風可能會更多地集中在後半部分。

If you just touch on, kind of, pull us out with the second half weighted in the linear, that would be helpful as you think about '25.

如果您只是觸及，將我們拉出來，用線性加權的後半部分，這將對您思考'25 有所幫助。

Amit, thank you very much.

阿米特，非常感謝。

Appreciate the question overall.

整體來說，我很欣賞這個問題。

Obviously, we're very pleased, as we talked about in the prepared remarks about how we finished on a strong note over-delivering on revenue, profitability, earnings per share, free cash flow.

顯然，我們非常高興，正如我們在準備好的評論中談到的那樣，我們以強勁的業績完成了收入、盈利能力、每股收益和自由現金流的超額完成。

That gives us the conviction and confidence as we guided in 2025 with above-street revenue growth at 5%-plus at constant currency and a very strong free cash flow engine, a $13.5 billion growing nicely and continuing to grow that free cash flow margin.

這給了我們信心和信心，正如我們在2025 年所預測的那樣，以固定匯率計算，高於街道的收入增長率將超過5%，並且擁有非常強勁的自由現金流引擎，135 億美元的收入成長良好，自由現金流利潤率將持續成長。

But if you look underneath it, linearity, when you get to that point, yes, first half, I would tell you you got to answer this by segment.

但是如果你深入觀察，線性，當你到達那個點時，是的，前半部分，我會告訴你，你必須分段回答這個問題。

We've got a very strong portfolio, which is executing extremely well on software.

我們擁有非常強大的產品組合，在軟體方面表現極為出色。

We see a pretty normal history as we move through our first half, second half.

當我們經歷上半場和下半場時，我們看到了相當正常的歷史。

Obviously, you do have seasonality between 1Q and 2Q versus 3Q and forth.

顯然，第一季和第二季之間以及第三季及以後的季度之間確實存在季節性。

But that is -- we got a very hard and we're going to continue to invest in innovation.

但那是——我們非常努力，我們將繼續在創新方面進行投資。

Second, on Consulting, we feel pretty good about how we concluded the year with our highest recorded ever signings quarter up 23%.

其次，在諮詢業務方面，我們對今年的業績感到非常滿意，本季簽約量成長 23%，創歷史新高。

We entered the year with a backlog of plus 8%, a strong book-to-bill that at 1.21. We're still dealing with a very dynamic environment around client-prioritizing spend.

今年以來，我們的積壓訂單量增加了 8%，訂單出貨比強勁，達到 1.21。我們仍然面臨著以客戶優先支出為核心的動態環境。

And I think it's prudent for us right now, though we call Low single digit for the year, to see that accelerate as we move through the year.

我認為，目前對我們來說，明智的做法是，儘管我們稱今年的成長速度為低個位數，但隨著時間的推移，我們將看到速度加速。

So I would see more of a second half play than a first half play.

因此，我看到下半場比賽比上半場比賽更多。

And then you get to infrastructure.

然後你就會談到基礎設施。

We did extremely well at the end of a three-year cycle.

三年周期結束時，我們的表現非常出色。

Our most promising program and mainframe, ever overall, delivering 122%.

我們最有前途的程式和大型主機，總體而言，交付率達到了 122%。

Yes, first quarter, we expect about -- again about a similar point impact IBM's growth.

是的，第一季，我們預期 IBM 的成長將受到類似程度的影響。

But second quarter on, we're back to growth above our model through the year.

但從第二季開始，我們的全年成長又恢復到了高於模型的成長。

And that's what gives us confidence in the guide that we called for the year.

這就是我們對今年的指南充滿信心的原因。

So a little bit of a mix shift, definitely strengthen software, which is going to drive this business being 45% IBM.

因此，一點點的混合轉變肯定會加強軟體，這將推動這項業務達到 45% 的 IBM 水準。

But when you bring it all together, maybe it's a pointless first half on revenue versus industry versus second half.

但當你把所有這些放在一起時，也許上半年的收入、行業和下半年的比較是毫無意義的。

But from a free cash flow perspective, we're pretty similar to history overall.

但從自由現金流的角度來看，我們總體上與歷史非常相似。

Great.

偉大的。

Operator, let's take the next question.

接線員，我們來回答下一個問題。

Wamsi Mohan, Bank of America.

美國銀行的 Wamsi Mohan。

Yes, thank you so much and congrats on a really strong free cash flow performance.

是的，非常感謝，並祝賀您取得了強勁的自由現金流表現。

Arvind, would love to get your thoughts around M&A, particularly as we may be entering a period of relatively low regulatory overhang at the same time, you are delivering record cash flows.

Arvind，我很想聽聽你對併購的看法，特別是因為我們可能正進入一個監管相對較低的時期，同時，你正在創造創紀錄的現金流。

And if I could, I would love to get some of your thoughts on [deep seek] and any implications that you see for the industry broadly or for IBM, in particular.

如果可以的話，我很想聽聽您對 [深度搜尋] 的一些看法，以及您認為它對整個行業，尤其是 IBM 的影響。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, Wamsi.

謝謝，Wamsi。

We are looking forward to a regulatory environment that's a bit more rational and a bit more [frugal] competition.

我們期待一個更理性、競爭更有序的監管環境。

So I think what that implies for us is that we think reasonable deals have a very good chance of getting through in a reasonable amount of time and not being held up for years.

所以我認為這對我們來說意味著我們認為合理的交易很有可能在合理的時間內達成，而不會被拖延數年。

So with that context, that means, obviously, we are going to lead and more, which is reasonable.

因此，在這種背景下，這顯然意味著我們將發揮領導作用，甚至發揮更多作用，這是合理的。

If you look at our free cash flow and you look at what we are setting out for the year, that could leave as much as $7 billion or a bit more than that during the year, after accounting for the dividend.

如果你看一下我們的自由現金流，並看看我們今年的計劃，那麼在扣除股息後，今年的現金流可能會剩下 70 億美元甚至更多。

We always look at a three-year flexibility.

我們始終專注於三年的靈活性。

I think that's the best way of looking at it, Wamsi.

我認為這是最好的看待問題的方式，瓦姆西。

So if you look at a three-year flexibility, you can kind of borrow ahead.

因此，如果您考慮三年的靈活性，您可以提前借款。

But we do kind of want to live within sort of what we can afford.

但我們確實希望能在自己所能負擔的範圍內生活。

And if we find targets that meet our criteria here, we are going to lead and get things done.

如果我們發現符合標準的目標，我們就會發揮領導作用，完成任務。

I'm going to just finish that by saying how she has been waiting out there for almost a year.

最後，我只想說她已經在那裡等待了將近一年。

We certainly hope that with a friendlier environment, that gets done soon, and that then begins to open up the aperture for getting more deals done.

我們當然希望，在更友善的環境下，這一目標能夠盡快實現，並為達成更多交易打開大門。

So I think hopefully that addresses both the cash flows and the regulations around M&A.

因此，我認為這可以解決現金流和併購相關法規的問題。

So (technical difficulty), I think was a point of validation.

所以（技術難度），我認為是驗證點。

We have been very vocal for about a year that smaller models and more reasonable creating times are going to be essential for enterprise deployment of large language models.

大約一年來，我們一直在呼籲，更小的模型和更合理的創建時間對於企業部署大型語言模型至關重要。

We have been down that journey ourselves for more than a year.

我們自己已經走過這段旅程一年多了。

We see as much as 30-times reduction in insurance costs using these approaches.

我們發現，採用這些方法後保險成本降低了 30 倍。

As other people begin to follow that route, we think that this is incredibly good for our enterprise clients, and we will certainly take advantage of that in our business.

隨著其他人開始走這條路，我們認為這對我們的企業客戶來說非常好，我們肯定會在我們的業務中利用這一點。

But I believe that others will also follow that route.

但我相信其他人也會走這條路。

Operator, let's take that question.

接線員，我們來回答這個問題。

Jim Schneider, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的吉姆·施奈德。

Good afternoon.

午安.

Thanks for taking my question.

感謝您回答我的問題。

I was wondering if you, maybe, highlight two topics, one on Consulting and one on the AI software side.

我想知道您是否可以強調兩個主題，一個是關於諮詢，一個是關於人工智慧軟體方面。

On the Consulting side of things, it's good to see the bookings that you're seeing.

就諮詢方面而言，很高興看到您所看到的預訂。

But can you maybe give us, historically, and the context is IBM tends to lag the Consulting business relative to some of your peers.

但您能否從歷史上向我們介紹一下，背景是 IBM 的諮詢業務相對於您的一些同行而言往往落後於其他公司。

But what does the level of confidence you have in the revenue yield and revenue recovery you talked about for the back half of the year?

但是，您對您所說的下半年的收入收益和收入復甦有多大信心？

And how do you feel about the revenue yield today versus a year ago?

與一年前相比，您覺得今天的營收報酬率如何？

And then secondly, on the AI Software side, you mentioned the $1 billion book of business, particularly within software.

其次，在人工智慧軟體方面，您提到了 10 億美元的業務，特別是軟體領域。

That's pretty substantial.

這是相當重要的。

And while there's been moving parts in terms of which products have gotten traction, which are the products of the ones you mentioned, do you think are really going to be sort of stand out in the next couple of years from a software performance perspective?

雖然在哪些產品獲得關注方面存在一些變動，但是從軟體效能的角度來看，您提到的哪些產品在未來幾年內真的會脫穎而出嗎？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you, Jim.

謝謝你，吉姆。

I'll take the first one and then Arvind can handle the second one around the products and software overall.

我會負責第一個問題，然後 Arvind 可以負責第二個問題，涉及產品和軟體整體。

We take a look at it from a consulting perspective, we've been talking about, we have been operating along with every other consulting company in a very dynamic macro-economic environment.

我們從諮詢的角度來看這個問題，我們一直在談論，我們一直在與其他顧問公司一起在非常動態的宏觀經濟環境中運作。

As with any technological shift, there are going to be reprioritization of spending that is occurring.

正如任何技術變革一樣，支出的優先順序也會重新調整。

Clients, some are IBM, we are cutting back on discretionary-based spend so we can fuel investment into digital transformation GenAI overall.

客戶有些是 IBM，我們正在削減可自由支配的開支，以便能夠整體推動 GenAI 數位轉型的投資。

We've been seeing that play out throughout 2024.

我們已經看到這一幕在 2024 年上演。

By the way, on top of our above market performance in gaining significant share over the last six quarters starting in 2023.

順便說一句，從 2023 年開始，我們在過去的六個季度中不僅取得了超出市場預期的市場份額，而且還獲得了顯著的市場份額。

Now, why have we been so maniacally focused on the GenAI ramp and are greater than $4 billion book of business right now coming out six quarters in, which we believe, by the way, we're in a very early leadership position around that.

那麼，為什麼我們如此瘋狂地關注 GenAI 的發展，並且在過去的六個季度裡，我們的業務額已經超過 40 億美元，順便說一句，我們相信，我們在這個領域處於非常早期的領導地位。

We're so maniacally focus because enterprise clients are making their strategic provider of choice decisions.

我們如此瘋狂地關注，因為企業客戶正在做出其選擇策略提供者的決策。

And we are feeling very good about that greater than $4 billion book of business, which by the way, is already north of 5% of our total backlog, which is, as I told Amit in the first question, is up 8% coming into 2025.

我們對超過 40 億美元的業務感到非常滿意，順便說一句，這已經占到我們總積壓訂單的 5% 以上，正如我在第一個問題中告訴 Amit 的那樣，2019 年增長了 8%。年。

Why is that important?

為什麼這很重要？

Because that is going to be a long-term future vector of growth for consulting for us to win that has a multiplier effect that will drag our software component of our business going forward.

因為這將成為我們諮詢業務未來的長期成長方向，具有乘數效應，將推動我們業務的軟體部分向前發展。

So we feel pretty good while right now early in the cycle, it has less yield, it has higher durations.

因此，我們感覺相當良好，雖然目前處於週期早期，收益率較低，但持續時間較長。

But we think the TAM opportunity and that multiplier effect are going to grow into each other.

但我們認為 TAM 機會和乘數效應將會相互發展。

And that's one of a couple of components and why we have conviction of inflecting back to growth in 2025 with Consulting overall.

這是幾個因素之一，也是我們堅信在 2025 年顧問業將全面恢復成長的原因。

Thanks, Jim.

謝謝，吉姆。

So let me take the question, Jim, on the thoughts about the software products which I think will be standouts.

所以，吉姆，請允許我來回答這個問題，關於我認為會脫穎而出的軟體產品的想法。

I got to begin with our watsonx family.

我得從我們的 watsonx 家族開始說起。

Our watsonx encapsulates our primary products that incorporate LLMs and AI technology.

我們的 watsonx 囊括了我們融合了 LLM 和 AI 技術的主要產品。

Our watsonx Code Assistant on how we help our clients modernize their infrastructures, our Code Assistants on how people leverage it for Java, for Ansible have been absolute standouts and have been in market for almost a year.

我們的 watsonx 程式碼助理幫助我們的客戶實現基礎設施現代化，我們的程式碼助理幫助人們如何將其用於 Java，對於 Ansible 來說，這些助手絕對是佼佼者，並且已經上市近一年了。

That the rest of the watsonx family also, whether it's about deploying models using AI or getting the data ready and governance, have also been very strong drivers.

Watsonx 家族的其他成員，無論是使用 AI 部署模型還是準備資料和治理，也都是非常強大的推動力。

And the piece that most people have not been paying attention to, I want to point out, is in the Red Hat family, both Red Hat for getting models deployed on a single server with GPUs, as well as what we now go to be doing with our Neural Magic acquisition on how do you optimize and get the most effective use as of the hardware using Red Hat.

我想指出的是，大多數人沒有註意到的是 Red Hat 家族，它既用於在帶有 GPU 的單一伺服器上部署模型，也用於我們現在正在做的事情利用我們收購的Neural Magic 了解如何優化並使用Red Hat 硬件，從而最有效地利用硬體。

And then when you have large deployments leveraging OpenShift for AI deployment, or the final rounding out of the products.

然後，當您利用 OpenShift 進行 AI 部署或最終完成產品部署時。

To be candid, LLMs will induce many other things.

坦白說，法學碩士還會帶來很多其他的事情。

For the products I called out are the ones where we counted as direct AI products and directly driving the business.

我提到的產品是被視為直接人工智慧產品並直接推動業務的產品。

And that's what is counted in the numbers that Jim laid out.

這就是吉姆列出的數字所計算的內容。

Operator, next question.

接線員，下一個問題。

Ben Reitzes, Melius Research.

Ben Reitzes，Melius Research。

Yes, thanks a lot.

是的，非常感謝。

A lot of the couple of questions were asked.

這兩個問題被問了很多。

So I'm going to ask about infrastructure, and I also wanted to congratulate you guys.

所以我要問有關基礎設施的問題，我也想祝賀你們。

Your mix shift towards software is really resonating.

您對軟體的混合轉變確實引起了共鳴。

But I'm going to ask about infrastructure and two aspects.

但我要問的是基礎設施和兩個面向。

One is tied to it within software is TPP, super profitable on an 11%.

與之相關的軟體是TPP，利潤高達11%。

I just wanted to see where that sit in terms of your guidance for the year and how sustainable that is.

我只是想看看這與你今年的指導方針相符嗎，以及這種指導方針的可持續性如何。

And I think that the AI system is having a big impact on that.

我認為人工智慧系統對此產生了巨大的影響。

And so changing the way we may be thinking on that.

因此，我們應該改變對此的思考方式。

And then with regard to infrastructure, which is a little bit tied to that segment, maybe I'm wrong, in terms of the mainframe and that delta and growth, if you could just be a little more prescriptive there and talk about why you have confidence that this will be well-received cycle.

然後關於基礎設施，這與該部分有一點聯繫，也許我錯了，就大型機和增量和增長而言，如果你可以更具體一點，並談談為什麼你有相信這將是一個受到好評的週期。

Really appreciate it.

真的很感激。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks, Ben.

謝謝，本。

This is Jim, I'll take this.

這是吉姆，我來接手。

First of all, thank you for the compliments.

首先感謝您的讚美。

Team has worked extremely hard.

團隊已經非常努力了。

We laid out a very ambitious three-year road map a few years ago when we spun off Kyndryl that repositioned IBM.

幾年前，當我們剝離 Kyndryl 並重新定位 IBM 時，我們制定了一個非常雄心勃勃的三年路線圖。

And as we talked about in prepared remarks, team is executed and met or exceeded every single one of those targets that we put out to the street.

正如我們在準備好的演講中談到的那樣，團隊執行並達到或超越了我們向公眾提出的每一個目標。

So a lot of hard work here.

所以這裡需要做很多艱苦的工作。

But the beauty is we got a lot more to go, which we're extremely excited about will talk about that next week at Investor Day.

但美妙之處在於我們還有很多事情要做，我們對此感到非常興奮，我們將在下週的投資者日上討論這個問題。

But let's talk about TPP.

我們來談談TPP吧。

First of all, I can't talk about TPP. to the heart of your question without talking about the absolute tremendous execution of what's been happening, what our mainframe cycle.

首先，我不能談論TPP。你的問題的核心，沒有談論已經發生的絕對巨大的執行力，也沒有談論我們的大型機週期。

You know, this has been one of the longest programs and most consistent in terms of revenue growth that we've ever seen.

你知道，這是我們見過的持續時間最長的項目之一，而且收入成長最為穩定。

And I think it's an association of the value of our enduring platform and a hybrid cloud era overall. 120%-plus prior program, 70% of the clients on mainframe are growing MIPS.

我認為這是我們持久平台的價值與整個混合雲時代的關聯。 120% 以上的先前程序，大型主機上 70% 的用戶端正在成長 MIPS。

That is a very different profile than where we were 10 years ago.

這與我們十年前的情況截然不同。

And the install MIPS are up 3x over the last few cycles.

在過去的幾個週期中，安裝 MIPS 增加了 3 倍。

Now why is that important?

那為什麼這很重要？

We run mainframe, yes, mission critical workloads for what, 97% of the mission critical transactional processing around all of -- many of the different industries banking, retail, airlines, you name it, but we run it as a stack economic platform play.

是的，我們運行大型主機，關鍵任務工作負載佔所有不同行業（銀行、零售、航空等）97% 的關鍵任務交易處理，但我們將其作為堆疊經濟平台運行。

TP is the mission-critical software on top of that.

TP 是最重要的任務軟體。

It is a key growth contributor, capitalizing on those mainframe stack economics, high source of revenue, high source of profit to fuel investment flexibility of us continuing this engine of innovation and software, and it also provides a solid incumbency based on multiplier effect.

它是一個關鍵的成長貢獻者，利用大型主機堆疊經濟、高收入來源、高利潤來源來推動我們繼續推動創新和軟體引擎的投資靈活性，並且它還基於乘數效應提供了堅實的在職權範圍。

We grew our transaction processing 10% in 2024, exiting at 11%.

2024 年，我們的交易處理量成長了 10%，退出時成長率為 11%。

The underlying dynamics of that, I would say about four points of that growth, is due to the capitalization of the underlying workloads that are driving mainframe.

這種成長的潛在動力（我認為大約有四個點）是由於推動大型主機的基礎工作負載的資本化。

About three points of that is the investment in the new innovation that we've been bringing to the mainframe platform call that Watson Coda system for Z and how we monetize the value of GenAI.

其中大約有三點是對我們為大型主機平台引入的新創新的投資，即 Z 的 Watson Coda 系統，以及我們如何將 GenAI 的價值貨幣化。

And then about three points of that is back to historical price optimization.

然後其中的三點又回到了歷史價格優化。

If you look at 2025, our guidance where we called software continuing to accelerate approaching double digit, I will say, prudently right now between Arvind and I, a consistent mid-size, single-digit growth in TP., and we'll see how that plays out with the new cycle of mainframe in '25.

如果你看看 2025 年，我們的指導方針是軟體繼續加速接近兩位數，我會謹慎地說，現在我和 Arvind 之間，TP 將繼續保持中等規模、個位數的增長，我們會看到這與25 年新一輪大型機週期有何關係？

Operator, let's take the next question.

接線員，我們來回答下一個問題。

Brent Thill, Jefferies.

傑富瑞的布倫特‧蒂爾 (Brent Thill)。

Thanks.

謝謝。

This is Bo on for Brent.

這是布倫特的博。

Arvind, it would be great to get your view of the business climate, more specifically on the software side, but also more generally across business segments.

Arvind，我們非常希望聽聽您對商業環境的看法，尤其是軟體方面，但也請更廣泛地了解各個業務領域。

What are you hearing from customers?

您從顧客那裡聽到了什麼？

And how are they thinking about their software budget in 2025?

他們如何考慮 2025 年的軟體預算？

Thanks.

謝謝。

I've been quite public and quite vocal around this topic.

我一直非常公開並且直言不諱地談論這個話題。

So let's acknowledge many of the things that occupies a media headlines.

因此，讓我們承認佔據媒體頭條的許多事情。

And then as a consequence, the do all of our business leaders.

因此，我們所有的商業領袖都這樣做。

Geopolitical tensions, maybe on a better track right now, but certainly not solved.

地緣政治緊張局勢目前可能有所好轉，但肯定尚未解決。

Interest rates, inflation, demographics, lack of skilled labor supply chain.

利率、通貨膨脹、人口統計、缺乏熟練勞動力的供應鏈。

I think these issues all carry over into 2025.

我認為這些問題都會延續到 2025 年。

That said, and I did spend last week at Davos when they get to meet a few hundred of your colleagues from around the world.

話雖如此，上週我確實在達沃斯會見了數百名來自世界各地的同事。

I would tell you there is more optimism in the business climate and there is more optimism on the growth that is possible in '25 compared to '24.

我想說的是，現在的商業環境更加樂觀，與2024年相比，人們對2025年可能實現的成長也更加樂觀。

And we know all reasons for that.

我們知道其中的所有原因。

Is it pro-innovation, is a pro-growth, is it pro-regulation, reducing friction.

它是否有利於創新，是否有利於成長，是否有利於監管，是否減少摩擦。

All those things I believe are going to result in a bit the environment in 2025.

我相信所有這些都會對 2025 年的環境產生一定影響。

That then translates into how our company is going to grow.

這決定了我們公司將如何發展。

To a person, everybody believes technology is now essential for helping them grow.

對一個人來說，每個人都相信科技對於幫助他們成長至關重要。

How can you service customers better?

如何才能更好地為客戶服務？

How can you market better?

如何才能更好地進行行銷？

How can you reach people?

您怎樣才能聯繫到人們？

How can you get things done in minutes instead of hours?

如何才能在幾分鐘而不是幾小時內完成任務？

Software is the basis for all of those capabilities.

軟體是所有這些功能的基礎。

I think to a person, the budget that they will touch last, if there was ever an issue, is that software budget.

我認為對於一個人來說，如果有問題的話，他們最後觸及的預算就是軟體預算。

So that is what is giving us confidence also, as Jim talked about approaching double digits in software is that software is essential to help people go to achieve their business goals.

所以這也給了我們信心，正如吉姆所談到的，軟體接近兩位數，而軟體對於幫助人們實現他們的商業目標至關重要。

And if you can get ahead in this year, it'll probably keep you ahead.

如果你今年能夠取得進步，那麼它可能會一直讓你保持領先。

So it becomes kind of a gift that keeps repeating for our clients.

因此，它成為一種不斷為我們的客戶重複提供的禮物。

Operator, let's take the next question.

接線員，我們來回答下一個問題。

Erik Woodring, Morgan Stanley.

摩根士丹利的艾瑞克‧伍德林 (Erik Woodring)。

Yes.

是的。

Thank you so much for taking my questions and congrats on a really strong free cash flow, performance and guide.

非常感謝您回答我的問題，並祝賀您獲得真正強大的自由現金流、業績和指導。

One clarification quickly what was just --Jim, just want to make sure when we think about the 2025 outlook, is that inclusive or excluding how HashiCorp?

快速澄清一下——吉姆，只是想確保當我們考慮 2025 年的展望時，是否包括或排除 HashiCorp？

And then my broader question again for you, Jim, is just if you could walk through and quantify a bit more detail some of the free cash flow puts and takes as we as we go into 2025, just between the cash taxes, the CapEx, the EBITDA growth, any more detail would be super helpful to us as we think about our model.

然後我要再次問你一個更廣泛的問題，吉姆，你是否可以詳細地量化一些自由現金流的投入和產出，當我們進入 2025 年時，僅在現金稅、資本支出之間， EBITDA 增長，當我們思考我們的模型時，任何更多的細節都會對我們非常有幫助。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

Thanks, Erik.

謝謝，埃里克。

And again, thanks for the compliments to the team here collectively around the world.

再次感謝大家對世界各地團隊的讚美。

Means a lot.

意義重大。

Yes, short answer on Hashi, as always, we guide all.

是的，關於哈希的簡短回答，一如既往，我們指導所有人。

So we fully expect to close the Hashi transaction in a relatively soon period of time.

因此，我們完全有望在相對較短的時間內完成 Hashi 交易。

As we saw in the K that was issued by HashiCorp overall, we fully expect that in this new administration environment.

正如我們在 HashiCorp 發布的 K 中看到的那樣，我們完全期待在這種新的管理環境中。

So all in, revenue growth, profit margin guidance that we gave, and free cash flow, which by the way is growing faster than revenue.

總而言之，收入成長、我們提供的利潤率指導以及自由現金流的成長速度快於收入。

When you take a look underneath, we're extremely pleased on how we finished the last couple of years overall.

如果您看一下下面這段話，您會發現我們對過去幾年的整體表現感到非常滿意。

Highest free cash flow margin in the history of our great company for 115 years.

我們偉大公司 115 年來的最高自由現金流利潤率。

And oh, by the way, we exited 2024 with a free cash flow run rate above our mid-term model of what we laid out three years ago, consistently growing free cash flow well in excess of revenue overall.

順便說一句，到 2024 年，我們的自由現金流運行率高於我們三年前製定的中期模型，自由現金流的成長速度始終遠超整體收入。

So that's what gives us the confidence and conviction that all of the tough work on our portfolio optimization that has shifted much more to a software-centric-lead hybrid-cloud platform company, the productivity, which by the way, executing north of $3.5 billion exit run rate.

因此，這給了我們信心和信念，我們投資組合優化的所有艱苦工作已經轉移到以軟體為中心、領先的混合雲平台公司，生產力，順便說一句，執行了 35 億美元以上的退出運行率。

We got out in front of that.

我們已經走在那前面了。

I would call that discipline; I would call that execution of a company.

我稱之為紀律；我稱之為公司的執行力。

Gives us the conviction and confidence in our guide in 2025.

讓我們對 2025 年的指導充滿信心與信心。

That takes into account that dilution effect.

這考慮到了稀釋效應。

Hashi in itself is probably about a point of revenue growth IBM in the year.

Hashi 本身可能就是 IBM 今年營收成長的一個點。

And it's probably, many of you have done the math, in all $300 million, give or take of dilution, by the way, still a very attractive financial model, coupled with the strategic fit and synergy because we do believe adjusted EBITDA were well on our path of a within 12 months accretive and free cash flow within two years accretive.

你們中的許多人可能已經計算過了，總共3 億美元，加上稀釋，仍然是一個非常有吸引力的財務模型，再加上戰略契合度和協同效應，因為我們確實相信調整後的EBITDA 很好。

Overall, if you've been following Hashi's results.

總的來說，如果你一直在關注 Hashi 的結果。

But the underlying dynamics of our free cash flow drive, over 100% of it's going to be delivered by high-quality, sustainable, adjusted EBIT growth that is driving this company to a sustainable, durable mid-single digit growth, now 5%-plus.

但是，我們自由現金流的潛在動力，其中100% 以上將由高品質、可持續、調整後的息稅前利潤增長提供，這將推動該公司實現可持續、持久的中個位數增長，目前為5%-加。

The underlying operating leverage we continue to generate in this business will drive double-digit adjusted EBITDA growth in 2025 that just to put some dollar amounts around it.

我們在該業務中繼續產生的潛在經營槓桿將推動 2025 年調整後 EBITDA 實現兩位數成長，這只是一個數字而已。

That's probably over $1.5 billion in itself.

這一數字可能本身就超過 15 億美元。

Now mitigating some of that, one, we are going to continue to invest in this business and that CapEx number is going to go up a couple hundred million dollars as we invest in our software, our GenAI, our next generation, our mainframe, et cetera, Quantum, by the way, we continue to invest in.

現在，為了減輕一些影響，我們將繼續投資於這項業務，隨著我們投資於軟體、GenAI、下一代產品、大型機等，資本支出將增加幾億美元。進行投資。

Two. with that incremental profit dollar, we're going to pay more cash tax.

二。對於增加的利潤，我們將繳納更多的現金稅。

That's a couple of hundred million more of their and, three, to the heart of your question, the net interest opportunity loss overall will probably be another couple of hundred million dollars overall.

這意味著他們的損失還會增加幾億美元，第三，關於你問題的核心，整體而言，淨利息機會損失可能還會增加幾億美元。

So when you put those pieces together, the way I would kind of qualify it high-quality, sustainable free cash flow generation engine that's going to deliver faster and revenue growth.

因此，當你把這些部分放在一起時，我會稱之為高品質、可持續的自由現金流產生引擎，它將帶來更快的收入成長。

Operator, next question, please.

接線員，請問下一個問題。

Operator, can we have the next question?

接線員，我們可以問下一個問題嗎？

Operator, can we take the next question?

接線員，我們可以回答下一個問題嗎？

Operator, can we have the next question please?

接線員，我們可以問下一個問題嗎？

Brian Essex, can you ask your question, please?

Brian Essex，您能提問嗎？

All right.

好的。

Just please bear with us.

請您忍耐一下。

We're having an issue with our operator will be back in a minute.

我們的操作員遇到了問題，馬上回來。

All right, apologies, we're having a technical issue with our operator. So apologies that we can't finish our Q&A. We look forward to taking more questions and answers at our upcoming Investor Day on February 4. Let me turn it to Arvind for closing.

好的，抱歉，我們的操作員出現了技術問題。很抱歉我們無法完成問答。我們期待在 2 月 4 日即將到來的投資者日上回答更多問題和解答。

Thanks, Olympia. We do apologize, from all of us. We look forward to your questions, but we will get multiple hours with the team, as Olympia said on February 4. I do hope that all of you that couldn't get your questions in, could come that day and ask your questions. Just to wrap up. as we wrap on our mid-term model, and Jim explained some of this, we executed our strategy and deliver sustained revenue growth and cash.

謝謝，奧林匹亞。我們全體人員向您表示歉意。我們期待您的提問，但正如奧林匹亞在 2 月 4 日所說的那樣，我們將與團隊一起度過多個小時。只是為了結束。當我們完成中期模型時，吉姆解釋了其中的一些內容，我們執行了我們的策略並實現了持續的收入成長和現金。

The changes we've made to our business over the last couple of years and our performance reinforces my confidence in this next chapter of our growth.

我們過去幾年對業務所做的改變和我們的業績增強了我對我們下一階段成長的信心。

I look forward to continuing this dialogue and through the years.

我期待在未來的歲月裡繼續這場對話。