International Business Machines Corp (IBM) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome and thank you for standing by. (Operator Instructions) Today's conference is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time.

歡迎您，感謝您的收看。 （接線員指示）今天的會議正在錄製中。如果您有任何異議，請立即斷開連接。

Now I will turn the meeting over to Olympia McNerney, IBM's Global Head of Investor Relations. Olympia, you may begin.

現在，我將會議交給IBM全球投資者關係主管奧林匹亞·麥克納尼。奧林匹亞，你可以開始了。

Thank you. I'd like to welcome you to IBM's Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Presentation. I'm Olympia McNerney, and I'm here today with Arvind Krishna, IBM's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Jim Kavanaugh, IBM's Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We'll post today's prepared remarks on the IBM investor website within a couple of hours, and a replay will be available by this time tomorrow.

謝謝！歡迎大家參加 IBM 2023 年第四季財報發表會。我是 Olympia McNerney，今天與我一同出席的還有 IBM 董事長兼執行長 Arvind Krishna 和 IBM 資深副總裁兼財務長 Jim Kavanaugh。我們將在幾個小時內將今天的準備好的演講稿發佈到 IBM 投資者網站上，重播將於明天此時提供。

To provide additional information to our investors, our presentation includes certain non-GAAP measures. For example, all of our references to revenue and signings growth are at constant currency. We provided reconciliation charts for these and other non-GAAP financial measures at the end of the presentation, which is posted to our investor website.

為了向投資者提供更多信息，我們的簡報中包含了某些非公認會計準則 (non-GAAP) 指標。例如，所有提及收入和簽約成長的數據均以固定匯率計算。簡報末尾提供了這些指標和其他非公認會計準則 (non-GAAP) 財務指標的對帳表，該對帳表已發佈在我們的投資者網站上。

Finally, some comments made in this presentation may be considered forward-looking under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements involve factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially. Additional information about these factors is included in the company's SEC filings.

最後，根據1995年《私人證券訴訟改革法》，本簡報中的某些評論可能被視為前瞻性陳述。這些陳述涉及可能導致我們的實際結果產生重大差異的因素。有關這些因素的更多信息，請參閱公司提交給美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 的文件。

So with that, I'll turn the call over to Arvind.

因此，我將把電話轉給 Arvind。

Thank you for joining us. We had a solid close to 2023 with growth across our businesses and strong cash generation. Our fourth quarter and full year results demonstrate the strength of our portfolio and sustainability of our revenue growth. We are pleased with the progress we made in 2023, delivering revenue growth of 3% and over $11 billion of free cash flow. 2/3 of the way through our mid-term model, I am proud of our achievements.

感謝您加入我們。 2023年，我們取得了堅實的成績，各項業務均實現成長，現金流強勁。第四季和全年業績展現了我們產品組合的強勁實力以及營收成長的可持續性。我們對2023年的進展感到滿意，營收成長了3%，自由現金流超過110億美元。我們的中期目標已完成三分之二，我為我們所取得的成就感到自豪。

Since 2021, we delivered average revenue growth for IBM and for each segment at or above our model. The overall trends we are seeing reinforce our views of the future. We are confident in achieving our mid-term revenue model and the strength of our diversified business model allows us to make progress each quarter.

自2021年以來，IBM及各部門的平均收入成長均達到或超過預期模式。我們看到的整體趨勢強化了我們對未來的預期。我們對實現中期收入模型充滿信心，多元化業務模式的優勢也使我們每個季度都能取得進展。

We entered the year intent on enhancing our software portfolio and strengthening our Consulting position. We have done both. Mid last year, we launched watsonx, our flagship AI and data platform, and we are excited by the traction we are seeing. Consulting has delivered durable revenue growth through the year despite an uneven macro environment. Our expanding ecosystem, skills and technical expertise, global reach and co-creation approach not only set us apart but also contributed to our Consulting performance outpacing that of our competitors. This year also underscored the enduring nature and relevance of our zSystems platform.

進入新的一年，我們致力於增強軟體產品組合併鞏固諮詢業務地位。我們已做到了這兩點。去年年中，我們推出了旗艦人工智慧和數據平台 Watsonx，並對其發展勢頭感到興奮。儘管宏觀環境不平衡，諮詢業務全年仍實現了持續的收入成長。我們不斷擴展的生態系統、技能和技術專長、全球影響力以及共同創造的理念，不僅使我們脫穎而出，也使我們的諮詢業務業績超越競爭對手。今年也凸顯了我們 zSystems 平台的持久性和相關性。

Before getting into the execution of our strategy, I'll make a few comments about what we see in the current environment. I expect many macro trends to be similar to 2023. Technology demand will continue to be strong and serve as a major driving force behind global economic and business growth. It allows businesses to scale, offer better services, drive efficiencies and seize new market opportunities.

在深入探討策略執行之前，我想先對當前環境發表一些看法。我預計許多宏觀趨勢將與2023年類似。技術需求將持續強勁，並成為全球經濟和商業成長的主要驅動力。它使企業能夠擴大規模、提供更優質的服務、提高效率並抓住新的市場機會。

Every client I speak with is asking about how to boost productivity with AI and how to manage their technology stack, much of which is deployed across a hybrid environment, public, private and on-premises. These trends continue to fuel demand for both hybrid cloud and artificial intelligence.

與我交流的每一位客戶都在詢問如何利用人工智慧提升生產力，以及如何管理他們的技術棧，其中許多技術棧部署在公共、私有和本地混合環境中。這些趨勢持續推動對混合雲和人工智慧的需求。

I will now provide some color on the progress we are making in the execution of our strategy, starting with AI. Our approach to AI for business is resonating. Earlier in '23, we introduced watsonx, IBM's core platform that enables clients to train, tune, validate and deploy AI models. We believe AI will be multimodal with our clients leveraging a combination of models: IBM's, open source, their own proprietary models and those of other companies. Flexibility of deployment is key. Simply put, we meet clients where they are and allow clients to deploy AI models across multiple environments.

現在，我將簡要介紹我們在執行策略方面的進展，首先是人工智慧。我們針對商業人工智慧的方案引起了廣泛共鳴。早在2023年，我們就推出了IBM的核心平台Watsonx，它使客戶能夠訓練、調優、驗證和部署人工智慧模型。我們相信，人工智慧將呈現多模態，我們的客戶可以充分利用多種模型：IBM的模型、開源模型、他們自己的專有模型以及其他公司的模型。部署的靈活性至關重要。簡而言之，我們會根據客戶的需求，幫助他們在多種環境中部署人工智慧模型。

In the fourth quarter, we released watsonx.governance to help clients and partners govern and instill trust in generative AI. This toolkit helps organizations manage and monitor their AI and prepare for compliance with future AI-related regulations. IBM was recently named a leader in generative AI for governance platforms by IDC. As I have mentioned before, IBM was one of the first companies to announce the indemnification of all our models. Additionally, IBM and Meta announced in December the formation of the AI Alliance, a group of 70 industry and academic leaders joining together to advance open, safe and responsible AI.

第四季度，我們發布了 watsonx.governance，幫助客戶和合作夥伴治理生成式人工智慧並建立信任。該工具包可協助組織管理和監控其人工智慧，並為遵守未來人工智慧相關法規做好準備。 IBM 最近被 IDC 評為治理平台產生式人工智慧領域的領導者。正如我之前提到的，IBM 是第一批宣布所有模型均獲得賠償的公司之一。此外，IBM 和 Meta 於 12 月宣布成立人工智慧聯盟 (AI Alliance)，該聯盟由 70 位產業和學術領袖組成，旨在共同推動開放、安全和負責任的人工智慧發展。

We continue to believe our Consulting business will be an early beneficiary of AI. We are the only provider today that offers both the technology stack with our watsonx platform and Consulting services for deploying and managing generative AI. The early work for clients around data architecture, security and governance is critical and hard, and we think consulting expertise is going to be crucial here.

我們始終堅信，我們的諮詢業務將成為人工智慧的早期受益者。我們是目前唯一同時提供 Watsonx 平台技術堆疊和部署和管理生成式人工智慧諮詢服務的供應商。客戶在資料架構、安全和治理方面的早期工作至關重要且艱鉅，我們認為諮詢專業知識將在此發揮關鍵作用。

Just as we quickly ramped a meaningful practice around Red Hat to address the hybrid cloud opportunity, we are on a similar trajectory with generative AI. Consulting is a core driver of our value proposition for clients.

正如我們圍繞著紅帽迅速開展了一項意義深遠的實踐，以應對混合雲機會一樣，我們在生成式人工智慧領域也走上了類似的發展道路。諮詢是我們為客戶提供價值主張的核心驅動力。

Last quarter, I shared with you that our book of business in the third quarter specifically related to generative AI and watsonx was in the low hundreds of millions. Since then, demand continues to increase and our book of business in the fourth quarter is roughly double the third quarter amount. We continue to have thousands of hands-on client interactions, including an acceleration in pilots that were completed during the quarter.

上個季度，我曾與大家分享，我們第三季度與生成式人工智慧和 Watson X 相關的業務訂單量已接近數億美元。此後，需求持續成長，第四季的業務訂單量大約是第三季的兩倍。我們持續與數千家客戶進行實際互動，包括本季完成的試點計畫加速推進。

Software transactional revenue and SaaS ACV was approximately 1/3 of our book of business related to generative AI in the fourth quarter and 2/3 was Consulting signings. There was a balance of both large and small transactions across both segments.

第四季度，軟體交易收入和 SaaS ACV 約占我們生成式人工智慧相關業務的三分之一，顧問簽約則佔三分之二。兩個部門的大小交易均保持均衡。

Enterprise use cases addressing code modernization, customer service and digital labor continue to offer meaningful near-term benefits to clients. We've been collaborating with numerous clients using watsonx Code Assistant for Ansible. This includes a successful pilot with Citi, where initial results point to substantial developer productivity and code quality improvements that have led to plans for a rapid expansion focused on scaling for enterprise-wide outcomes.

解決程式碼現代化、客戶服務和數位化勞動力的企業用例持續為客戶帶來顯著的短期效益。我們一直與眾多使用 Watson X Code Assistant for Ansible 的客戶合作。其中包括與花旗銀行的成功試點，初步結果表明，開發人員的工作效率和程式碼品質均有顯著提升，這促使我們制定了快速擴展計劃，重點是實現企業範圍的成果擴展。

This is just one of many examples. In other industries, we have done work with clients such as NatWest, Lockheed Martin and Boehringer Ingelheim. We are working on an interesting use case with the Sevilla Fútbol Club, using watsonx to find the right players to sign by describing attributes across the database of more than 200,000 scouting reports.

這只是眾多案例之一。在其他行業，我們曾與 NatWest、洛克希德·馬丁和勃林格殷格翰等客戶合作。我們正在與塞維利亞足球俱樂部合作開發一個有趣的用例，使用 Watsonx，透過描述資料庫中超過 20 萬份球探報告的屬性來找到合適的簽約球員。

As clients build out their AI strategies and focus on driving ROI and productivity, the importance of optimizing IT spend and consumption is magnified. Apptio, our virtual command center for managing technology investments, comes up in nearly all of my client discussions. The value proposition is clearly resonating.

隨著客戶建立 AI 策略並專注於提升投資報酬率和生產力，優化 IT 支出和消耗的重要性日益凸顯。 Apptio 是我們用於管理技術投資的虛擬指揮中心，幾乎在與客戶的所有討論中都會被提及。其價值主張顯然引起了共鳴。

Looking beyond AI, we had a number of important client wins in the fourth quarter. For example, we're helping NATO strengthen their cybersecurity posture and build out a customized solution to have greater visibility into cyber threats and respond to them more quickly. We are working with Riyadh Air to help them drive their digital and technology strategy and establish their hybrid cloud integration platform.

除了人工智慧之外，我們在第四季度贏得了許多重要的客戶。例如，我們正在幫助北約加強其網路安全態勢，並建立客製化解決方案，以更深入地洞察網路威脅並更快地做出回應。我們正在與利雅德航空合作，幫助他們推進數位和技術策略，並建立混合雲整合平台。

We also saw meaningful Consulting renewals, which combined with new wins, highlights the focus and unique strengths of our capabilities. Our strategic partnerships with companies such as SAP, AWS, Microsoft, Salesforce and Adobe continue to expand and thrive. For instance, we are working together with Adobe to embed watsonx into their platform. We also continue to deepen our partnership with SAP through further collaboration across watsonx and Quantum.

我們也見證了重要的諮詢業務續簽，這些續約與新的合約相結合，凸顯了我們能力的專注度和獨特優勢。我們與 SAP、AWS、微軟、Salesforce 和 Adob​​e 等公司的策略合作夥伴關係持續拓展和發展。例如，我們正在與 Adob​​e 合作，將 Watson X 嵌入其平台。我們也透過 Watson X 和 Quantum 的進一步合作，繼續深化與 SAP 的合作夥伴關係。

We also have several new watsonx ISV partners. What we see is clear: many ISVs are eager to work with us as a trusted provider that understands enterprise needs. We continue to invest and bring new innovations to the market in other areas as well. In the quarter, Red Hat enhanced its Ansible Automation Platform, introducing new offerings like Ansible Lightspeed and Event-Driven Ansible. We announced the availability of Red Hat Device Edge to manage your workloads and deliver automation at the edge. In quantum computing, we introduced Heron, the most advanced quantum processor; and the System Two, a modular quantum computer.

我們也新增了幾位 Watson X ISV 合作夥伴。我們清楚地看到：許多 ISV 渴望與我們合作，因為我們是值得信賴且了解企業需求的供應商。我們也持續在其他領域投入，並將創新推向市場。本季度，紅帽增強了其 Ansible 自動化平台，推出了 Ansible Lightspeed 和 Event-Driven Ansible 等新產品。我們宣布推出 Red Hat Device Edge，用於管理您的工作負載並在邊緣自動化。在量子運算領域，我們推出了最先進的量子處理器 Heron 以及模組化量子電腦 System Two。

Focusing our portfolio remains a key priority. We completed 9 acquisitions this year, including Apptio, and we recently announced the acquisition of StreamSets and webMethods from Software AG, which we expect to close midyear. With respect to divestitures, we announced the sale of our Weather assets, which we expect to close in the first quarter. We also announced the Enterprise AI Venture Fund, a $500 million fund with the goal of partnering with the start-up community to tap into the latest AI innovations in the market and help them scale.

聚焦投資組合仍然是我們的首要任務。今年我們完成了9項收購，包括Apptio，並且最近宣布從Software AG收購StreamSets和webMethods，預計將於年中完成。在資產剝離方面，我們宣佈出售Weather資產，預計將於第一季完成。我們也宣布成立企業人工智慧創投基金，這是一支規模5億美元的基金，旨在與新創公司合作，利用市場上最新的人工智慧創新，並幫助它們實現規模化。

In summary, I believe that the changes we have made to our business over the last couple of years position us for the evolving technology landscape. As I reflect on our performance since we presented our mid-term model in October of 2021, I am pleased with the progress we have made internally and with our clients. We have delivered average revenue growth for IBM in line with our mid-term model. And this is true for all our segments. Software has delivered average growth at the high end of the mid-single-digit model. Consulting delivered average growth in line with the high single-digit model. And Infrastructure is well ahead of expectations. This performance gives me confidence as we move into the new year.

總而言之，我相信過去幾年我們對業務所做的調整使我們能夠應對不斷變化的技術格局。回顧自2021年10月發布中期模型以來的業績，我對我們內部和客戶方面的進展感到滿意。 IBM的平均收入成長符合我們的中期模型。我們所有業務部門都實現了相同的成長。軟體業務的平均成長達到了中個位數模型的高點。諮詢業務的平均成長也達到了高個位數模型的水平。基礎設施業務的表現也遠超預期。這樣的業績讓我對邁入新的一年充滿信心。

For 2024, we expect performance in line with our mid-term model with mid-single digit revenue growth and about $12 billion of free cash flow. This keeps us firmly on a path of sustainable growth.

2024年，我們預期業績將與中期模式保持一致，營收將實現中個位數成長，自由現金流約為120億美元。這將使我們堅定地走在可持續成長的道路上。

Jim will now take you through the details of the quarter and our expectations for 2024. Jim, over to you.

吉姆現在將向您介紹本季度的詳細資訊以及我們對 2024 年的期望。吉姆，交給你了。

Thanks, Arvind. In the fourth quarter, we delivered $17.4 billion in revenue, $4.2 billion of operating pretax income and operating earnings per share of $3.87, and we generated $6.1 billion of free cash flow. This wrapped up another solid year, where we continue to deliver durable growth in our repositioned business, aligned with client priorities of digital transformation and driving productivity.

謝謝，Arvind。第四季度，我們的營收為174億美元，稅前營業利潤為42億美元，每股營業收益為3.87美元，並產生了61億美元的自由現金流。這為我們又一個穩健的一年畫下了圓滿的句點。在這一年中，我們重新定位的業務持續保持持久成長，這與客戶在數位轉型和提高生產力方面的優先事項相一致。

Taking a step back, let me touch on a full year before I go into additional details of the quarter. Our revenue for the year was nearly $62 billion, up 3% and in line with our expectation 90 days ago. We generated $10.3 billion of operating pretax income and operating earnings per share of $9.62. Our free cash flow was $11.2 billion, our strongest level of cash generation since 2019.

先簡單回顧一下全年業績，然後再詳細介紹本季的具體情況。我們全年營收接近620億美元，成長3%，符合我們90天前的預期。我們實現了103億美元的稅前營業利潤，每股營業收益為9.62美元。我們的自由現金流為112億美元，創下2019年以來的最高現金創造水準。

Revenue performance for the year was again led by Software and Consulting. Software grew by over 5% with good growth across Hybrid Platform & Solutions and Transaction Processing. Consulting revenue was up over 6% with solid growth every quarter and broad-based growth across all 3 lines of business, highlighting the durability of our results and differentiated client offerings.

本年度營收表現再次由軟體和顧問業務領銜。軟體業務成長超過5%，其中混合平台與解決方案業務以及交易處理業務成長強勁。諮詢業務收入成長超過6%，每季均穩健成長，三大業務線均廣泛成長，凸顯了我們業績的持久性和差異化的客戶產品服務。

Infrastructure was down 4%, reflecting product cycle dynamics. Our revenue growth and productivity initiatives led to margin expansion and strong free cash flow generation. For the full year, we expanded operating gross profit margin by 130 basis points with every segment growing margin across every quarter. Our operating pretax margin expanded by 40 basis points, in line with our expectations and driven by strong productivity gains and operating leverage. And this includes a 110 basis point headwind from currency dynamics.

基礎設施業務下降了4%，反映了產品週期的動態變化。我們的營收成長和生產力提升措施帶來了利潤率的提升和強勁的自由現金流產生。全年來看，我們的營業毛利率成長了130個基點，每個部門的利潤率在每季都有成長。我們的稅前營業利潤率成長了40個基點，符合我們的預期，這得益於強勁的生產力提升和營運槓桿。這其中也包括匯率波動帶來的110個基點的不利因素。

Now turning to a deeper dive on the quarter. Our revenue was up over 3%. Software revenue was up 2%. Our fourth quarter performance reflects continued growth in our recurring revenue and a wrap on last year's seasonally strong transactional performance. Consulting had another solid quarter with 5.5% revenue growth, which is a sequential improvement in the growth rate.

現在來深入分析本季的情況。我們的收入成長了3%以上。軟體收入成長了2%。第四季的業績反映了我們經常性營收的持續成長，以及去年季節性強勁交易業績的延續。諮詢業務本季表現穩健，營收成長5.5%，成長環比提升。

We had good signings performance and a trailing 12-month book-to-bill ratio over 1.15. This continued momentum in Consulting is reflective of how we work with clients, the investment we are making in skills and talent, velocity in our strategic partnerships and our integrated value proposition.

我們的簽約業績表現良好，過去12個月的訂單出貨比超過1.15。諮詢業務的持續成長動能體現了我們與客戶的合作方式、我們在技能和人才方面的投入、策略夥伴關係的快速發展以及我們整合的價值主張。

We had great Infrastructure performance this quarter. Revenue was up 2% with growth in both zSystems and Distributed Infrastructure. This performance is particularly notable given it's the seventh quarter of the z16 cycle and in our seasonally largest quarter, again, highlighting the innovation we are bringing to this mission-critical platform.

本季度，我們的基礎設施業務表現優異。營收成長了2%，zSystems和分散式基礎設施均實現了成長。鑑於這是z16週期的第七季度，也是我們季度業績最大的一個季度，這一表現尤為突出，再次凸顯了我們為這個關鍵任務平台帶來的創新。

Looking at our profit metrics. We expanded operating gross margin by 140 basis points and operating pretax margin by 110 basis points, inclusive of 150 basis point currency headwind to pretax margin. Currency impacted operating pretax profit growth in the quarter by over $200 million. Margin expansion was driven by our operating leverage and ongoing productivity initiatives, which allowed for continued investments to drive innovation in our portfolio. You can see this in our higher R&D expense.

回顧我們的利潤指標。我們的營業毛利率提高了140個基點，稅前營業利益率提高了110個基點，其中包括150個基點的匯率不利因素對稅前利潤率的影響。本季，匯率因素對稅前營業利潤成長的影響超過2億美元。利潤率的成長得益於我們的營業槓桿和持續的生產力提升舉措，這些舉措使我們能夠持續投資，以推動產品組合的創新。您可以從我們更高的研發支出中看到這一點。

Our operating tax rate was 14%, which is flat versus last year. And our operating earnings per share of $3.87 was up 8%. We remain laser-focused on our productivity initiatives as we digitally transform our business processes and scale AI within IBM. This includes simplifying our application and infrastructure environments, streamlining our supply chain, aligning our teams by workflow, reducing our real estate footprint and enabling a higher value-added workforce through automation and AI-driven efficiencies.

我們的營業稅率為14%，與去年持平。每股營業收益為3.87美元，成長了8%。我們將繼續專注於生產力計劃，在IBM內部推動業務流程的數位轉型和人工智慧的擴展。這包括簡化我們的應用程式和基礎設施環境、精簡我們的供應鏈、根據工作流程協調我們的團隊、減少我們的房地產佔用空間，並透過自動化和人工智慧驅動的效率，打造更高附加價值的員工隊伍。

Against a target of $2 billion in annual run rate savings by the end of 2024, which I mentioned back in April of last year, we have already achieved over $1.5 billion. Our productivity initiatives have allowed us to increase our investments in innovation, technical and industry skills and go-to-market capabilities, including our ecosystem. And we have accomplished this while simultaneously growing our profit margin and free cash flow, which in turn has increased our financial flexibility. This remains our playbook going forward. And given our success to date, we now believe we can achieve at least $3 billion in annual run rate savings by the end of 2024.

我去年4月曾提到，我們的目標是到2024年底實現年度運行成本節省20億美元，而目前我們已經實現了超過15億美元的目標。我們的生產力措施使我們能夠增加對創新、技術和行業技能以及市場推廣能力（包括生態系統）的投資。在實現這一目標的同時，我們的利潤率和自由現金流也得到了提升，這反過來又增強了我們的財務靈活性。這仍然是我們未來的策略。鑑於我們迄今為止的成功，我們相信到2024年底，我們至少可以實現年度運行成本節省30億美元。

Overall, the combination of our revenue and margin performance resulted in 9% growth in our operating pretax profit for the quarter. This contributed to our free cash flow performance. For the year, we generated $11.2 billion of free cash flow, up $1.9 billion year-over-year. The largest driver of this growth comes from $900 million of adjusted EBITDA. For better transparency, we have included a view of our adjusted EBITDA performance in our supplemental slides.

總體而言，我們的營收和利潤率表現相結合，使得本季稅前營業利潤成長了9%。這促進了我們的自由現金流表現。全年我們創造了112億美元的自由現金流，年增19億美元。這一增長的最大驅動力來自9億美元的調整後EBITDA。為了提高透明度，我們在補充幻燈片中提供了調整後EBITDA的表現。

Our free cash flow growth also reflects benefits of about $400 million from working capital efficiencies, which is consistent with what we've been suggesting throughout the year. CapEx was also down about $400 million, reflecting actions to optimize our real estate portfolio. These actions reduced our net CapEx although had limited benefit to our profit performance.

我們的自由現金流成長也反映了營運資本效率提升帶來的約4億美元收益，這與我們全年的預期一致。資本支出也下降了約4億美元，這反映了我們優化房地產投資組合的舉措。這些措施降低了我們的淨資本支出，但對我們的利潤表現的益處有限。

In terms of cash uses for the year, we invested over $5 billion to acquire 9 companies, and we returned just over $6 billion to shareholders in the form of dividends.

就本年度的現金使用而言，我們投資了超過 50 億美元收購了 9 家公司，並以股息的形式向股東返還了超過 60 億美元。

Looking at the balance sheet. We ended the year with a strong liquidity position with cash of $13.5 billion, which is up $4.6 billion year-over-year. Total debt is up $5.6 billion over the same period. And our debt balance ended the year at $56.5 billion, including approximately $12 billion of debt associated with our financing business. Our retirement-related plans remain in a strong financial position. At year-end, our worldwide tax-qualified plans are funded at 111% with the U.S. at 123%.

回顧資產負債表。截至年底，我們的流動性狀況良好，現金持有量達135億美元，年增46億美元。同期總債務增加了56億美元。截至年底，我們的債務餘額為565億美元，其中包括與融資業務相關的約120億美元債務。我們的退休相關計畫仍維持著強勁的財務狀況。截至年底，我們全球符合稅收優惠條件的計畫的資金到位率為111%，其中美國為123%。

Turning to our segments. Software grew 2% with growth across both Hybrid Platform & Solutions and Transaction Processing. This quarter's performance, again, reflects growth in our high-value recurring revenue base, which is up mid-single digits. I'll remind you this comprises about 80% of our annual software revenue. Transaction Processing, with its strong base of recurring revenue, delivered revenue growth of 4%. Clients continue to value this portfolio of mission-critical software, supporting growing workloads on our hardware platforms like zSystems.

談到我們的業務部門。軟體業務成長了2%，混合平台及解決方案和交易處理業務均實現了成長。本季的業績再次反映了我們高價值經常性收入基礎的成長，該收入基礎實現了中等個位數的成長。需要提醒的是，這部分收入約占我們年度軟體收入的80%。交易處理業務憑藉其強大的經常性收入基礎，實現了4%的收入成長。客戶持續重視這一系列關鍵任務軟體，它們支援我們zSystems等硬體平台上日益增長的工作負載。

This, together with price increases, contributed to growth in both recurring and transactional software revenue in Transaction Processing for the year. Hybrid Platform & Solutions revenue was up 1%. Within this performance, Red Hat revenue was up 7%, Automation was flat, Data & AI was up 1% and Security declined.

這一成長，加上價格上漲，推動了交易處理業務中經常性軟體和交易軟體收入的年度成長。混合平台和解決方案收入成長了1%。其中，紅帽營收成長了7%，自動化業務持平，資料和人工智慧業務成長了1%，安全業務則有所下降。

Looking across Hybrid Platform & Solutions, the strength of our recurring base of business is evident in our ARR, now $14.4 billion and up over 7% since last year. We also faced a tough compare here in the fourth quarter, wrapping on seasonally strong transactional performance, including strength in ELAs, as we discussed at the start of the year. What played out in the fourth quarter reflects just these dynamics. And while transactional revenue overall was significant, it was down year-to-year a little more than expected.

縱觀混合平台和解決方案業務，我們經常性業務基礎的強勁表現體現在我們的年度經常性收入 (ARR) 上，目前達到 144 億美元，較去年同期增長超過 7%。正如我們年初所討論的，第四季我們也面臨嚴峻的挑戰，交易業績表現強勁，包括 ELA 的強勁成長。第四季的業績恰恰反映了這些動態。雖然交易收入整體可觀，但較去年同期降幅略高於預期。

In Red Hat, revenue performance was similar to last quarter as we continue to see dampened growth in consumption-based services. Our future growth indicators are encouraging. Red Hat annual bookings were up 17%, including double-digit bookings growth across all 3 key offerings: RHEL, OpenShift and Ansible. Renewals have been strong this quarter with our NRR up well over 100% and up 6 points over last year. And OpenShift continued its strong performance with annual recurring revenue of $1.2 billion.

紅帽的營收表現與上季相似，因為我們持續看到消費型服務的成長放緩。我們未來的成長指標令人鼓舞。紅帽年度預訂量成長了17%，其中三大關鍵產品（RHEL、OpenShift 和 Ansible）的預訂量均實現了兩大成長。本季續約量表現強勁，我們的正常營收 (NRR) 成長超過100%，比去年同期成長了6個百分點。 OpenShift 持續維持強勁表現，年度經常性收入達到12億美元。

Beyond OpenShift, our platform-based approach is resonating with clients. We're seeing growing interest in our generative AI platform, watsonx, as Arvind touched on earlier. And we've been investing to both extend and expand our hybrid cloud and AI capabilities and software from new offerings in Ansible to the launch of watsonx.governance, to the announced acquisition of StreamSets and webMethods.

除了 OpenShift，我們基於平台的方法也得到了客戶的共鳴。正如 Arvind 之前提到的，我們看到客戶對我們的生成式人工智慧平台 Watson 的興趣日益濃厚。我們一直在投資擴展和拓展我們的混合雲和人工智慧功能及軟體，從 Ansible 的新產品到推出的 Watson.governance，再到宣布收購 StreamSets 和 webMethods。

Looking at Software profit. Gross profit margin expanded and pretax margin was flat with the latter reflecting key investments in innovation and about 2 points of currency impact in the quarter. In Consulting, our revenue in the quarter was up 5.5%. We continue to see solid demand for data and technology transformation projects with a focus on AI and analytics.

軟體利潤方面，毛利率有所提升，稅前利潤率持平，後者反映了本季在創新方面的重點投資以及約2個百分點的匯率影響。諮詢業務方面，本季營收成長了5.5%。我們持續看到對數據和技術轉型項目的強勁需求，並專注於人工智慧和分析技術。

Clients are also prioritizing cloud modernization and cloud-based application development projects. This focus on digital transformation and AI initiatives to drive productivity and cost savings has been consistent throughout the year.

客戶也優先考慮雲端現代化和基於雲端的應用程式開發專案。全年始終致力於數位轉型和人工智慧項目，以提高生產力並節省成本。

Our ability to address these client demands drove signings growth of 8% with a 1.3 book-to-bill ratio in the quarter. That caps off a solid year where signings grew at a high-teens rate. And with this, our trailing 12-month book-to-bill ratio remains over 1.15. There has been significant interest this year regarding our Consulting outperformance relative to competitors.

我們滿足這些客戶需求的能力推動了本季簽約量成長8%，訂單出貨比達到1.3。這為簽約量以高雙位數成長率成長的穩健一年畫上了圓滿的句點。此外，我們過去12個月的訂單出貨比仍維持在1.15以上。今年，我們諮詢業務相對於競爭對手的優異表現引起了廣泛關注。

Let me give you my thoughts on what differentiates us. Our integrated value, investments in skills and strategic partnerships and focused execution. First, we are the only technology company with the Consulting business at scale. This unique integrated value proposition helps our clients implement digital transformations and generative AI solutions.

讓我來談談我們的獨特之處。我們的綜合價值、對技能和策略夥伴關係的投入以及專注的執行力。首先，我們是唯一一家擁有規模化諮詢業務的科技公司。這種獨特的綜合價值主張能夠幫助我們的客戶實現數位轉型和生成式人工智慧解決方案。

Second, we reposition our portfolio to address our clients' top priorities through investments in skills, capabilities and strategic partnerships. Consulting is even more powerful when working in collaboration with our partners. Our strategic partnerships now make up over 40% of our Consulting revenue and delivered double-digit growth in both signings and revenue for the full year. Within this performance, our AWS and Azure practices each grew revenue more than 50% for the year.

其次，我們重新定位了產品組合，透過對技能、能力和策略夥伴關係的投資，以解決客戶的首要任務。與合作夥伴攜手合作，諮詢業務將更加強大。我們的策略夥伴關係目前占我們諮詢業務收入的40%以上，全年簽約量和收入均實現了兩位數成長。在這一業績表現中，我們的AWS和Azure業務的全年營收成長均超過50%。

Finally, our solid results throughout the year demonstrate our focus on execution. When you look at our 3 lines of business in Consulting, we have consistently delivered solid revenue performance. Business Transformation, revenue grew 5% for the third consecutive quarter, again, led by data and technology transformations, including AI and analytics-focused projects. Finance and supply chain transformations also contributed to growth.

最後，我們全年穩健的表現反映了我們對執行力的專注。綜觀我們諮詢業務的三大業務線，我們始終保持穩健的收入表現。業務轉型業務收入連續第三個季度成長5%，這同樣是由數據和技術轉型（包括人工智慧和以分析為重點的項目）所帶動的。財務和供應鏈轉型也為成長做出了貢獻。

Technology Consulting revenue was up over 4% with growth in cloud modernization projects and cloud-based application development. Application Operations revenue grew 6% driven again by cloud application management and platform engineering services with both strategic partnerships and Red Hat engagements contributing to growth.

技術諮詢收入成長超過4%，得益於雲端現代化專案和基於雲端的應用程式開發的成長。應用營運收入成長6%，這再次得益於雲端應用程式管理和平台工程服務，策略合作夥伴關係和與紅帽的合作也為成長做出了貢獻。

Moving to Consulting profit. We expanded gross margin 30 basis points and delivered pretax margin of 11.5%, which is up 50 basis points year-to-year. Our pretax margin performance continues to reflect the pricing and productivity actions we have taken, offsetting increased labor costs and nearly 1 point of currency impact.

轉向諮詢業務利潤。我們的毛利率提高了30個基點，稅前利潤率達到11.5%，比去年同期成長50個基點。我們的稅前利潤率表現持續反映了我們採取的定價和生產力措施，抵消了勞動成本的上升和近1個基點的匯率影響。

In our Infrastructure business, revenue was up 2%, Hybrid Infrastructure revenue grew 7%, and Infrastructure Support declined 9%. Within Hybrid Infrastructure, zSystems revenue was up 8%. Now 7 quarters into the product cycle, z16 revenue performance has significantly outperformed prior cycles, including the successful z15 cycle.

在我們的基礎設施業務中，收入成長了2%，混合基礎設施收入成長了7%，基礎設施支援收入下降了9%。在混合基礎設施領域，zSystems營收成長了8%。 z16產品週期已進入第7個季度，其營收表現顯著優於先前的周期，包括成功的z15週期。

The z16 program incorporates a number of key innovations for our clients, including cloud-native development for hybrid cloud, embedded AI at scale, quantum safe cyber-resilient security, energy efficiency and strong reliability and scalability. Clients are increasingly leveraging zSystems for more and more workloads, and that translates to demand for more capacity, which we described in terms of MIPS. In fact, installed MIPS have roughly doubled over the last 2 cycles. Putting this all together, zSystems remains an enduring platform, driving not just hardware adoption but also related software, storage and services.

z16 計畫為我們的客戶帶來了許多關鍵創新，包括以混合雲為導向的雲端原生開發、大規模嵌入式人工智慧、量子安全、網路彈性安全、能源效率以及強大的可靠性和可擴展性。客戶越來越多地利用 zSystems 來處理越來越多的工作負載，這轉化為對更高容量的需求，我們用 MIPS 來描述這一點。事實上，在過去兩個週期中，已安裝的 MIPS 大約翻了一番。綜上所述，zSystems 仍然是一個經久不衰的平台，不僅推動硬體的普及，也推動相關軟體、儲存和服務的發展。

Distributed Infrastructure revenue was up 7% with growth across both Power and Storage. Power performance was fueled by demand for data-intensive workloads on Power10, and Storage traction was aligned to the success of the z16 cycle we just mentioned. Infrastructure support revenue declined given our successful hardware performance.

分散式基礎設施營收成長7%，Power和儲存業務均實現成長。 Power業務的業績成長得益於Power10上資料密集型工作負載的需求，而儲存業務的成長則與我們剛才提到的z16週期的成功相一致。由於硬體業務表現優異，基礎設施支援收入下降。

Looking at Infrastructure profit. We delivered gross profit and pretax margin expansion. Pretax margin expanded 280 basis points in the quarter, reflecting benefits from productivity while absorbing over 1 point of impact from currency.

基礎設施利潤方面，我們實現了毛利和稅前利潤率的提升。本季稅前利潤率成長了280個基點，這反映了生產力提升帶來的效益，同時也吸收了超過1個基點的匯率影響。

Now let me bring it back up to the IBM level to wrap it up. As Arvind mentioned, we are now 2/3 of the way through our mid-term model. And so I'd say it's a good time to reflect on what we have accomplished over this period. Let me start with the actions we've taken to execute our strategy and deliver sustainable revenue and free cash flow growth.

現在，讓我回到IBM的層面來總結。正如Arvind所提到的，我們的中期模型已經完成了三分之二。所以，我想現在是時候回顧一下我們這段時間的成就了。首先，我想談談我們為執行策略、實現永續收入和自由現金流成長所採取的行動。

We aligned our business to a platform-centric model focused on hybrid cloud and AI. Our go-to-market is based on more technical and experiential selling. We opened IBM's ecosystem and strategic partnerships to give our clients greater choice and technical depth and give IBM multiple ways to win across our portfolio. We have invested in innovation and skills and pursued strategic M&A. And we presented a simplified reporting structure to give increased transparency into our performance. These actions resulted in a fundamentally different company with an improved business mix and a higher-value recurring revenue base.

我們將業務調整為以平台為中心的模式，專注於混合雲端和人工智慧。我們的行銷策略更加重視技術和體驗式銷售。我們開放了 IBM 的生態系統和策略合作夥伴關係，為客戶提供更多選擇和技術深度，並使 IBM 能夠透過多種方式在產品組合中獲勝。我們投資於創新和技能，並進行策略性併購。我們也簡化了報告結構，以提高績效透明度。這些舉措使公司煥然一新，業務組合得到優化，經常性收入基礎也更有價值。

Today, our growth vectors of Software and Consulting represent 75% of our revenue base, up from about 55% in 2020. And our stable recurring revenue stream represents about half of IBM's revenue. As Arvind said, our 2-year average revenue growth is in line with our mid-single-digit model, and our segments have delivered at or above the revenue models.

如今，軟體和顧問業務的成長向量占我們營收基數的75%，高於2020年的55%左右。我們穩定的經常性收入流約佔IBM總收入的一半。正如Arvind所說，我們兩年的平均營收成長率符合中位數個位數成長模式，我們各部門的業績都達到或超過了營收成長模式。

With this backdrop, let me turn to 2024 guidance and our 2 key measures of success: revenue growth and free cash flow. We expect constant currency revenue growth in line with our mid-single-digit model. As we start the year, I think it's prudent to assume the low end of that model. And for free cash flow, we expect to generate about $12 billion.

在此背景下，我想談談2024年的績效指引以及我們衡量成功的兩個關鍵指標：營收成長和自由現金流。我們預期固定匯率收入成長率將與我們的中等個位數成長模型保持一致。在新的一年伊始，我認為謹慎的做法是假設模型的低端。至於自由現金流，我們預計約120億美元。

Our revenue expectations are underpinned by solid growth in both Software and Consulting. In Software, given our pipeline of business, investment in innovation and the contribution of acquisitions, we expect revenue growth slightly above the high end of our mid-single-digit model. In Consulting, our solid signings and book-to-bill ratio support revenue growth in the range of 6% to 8% with acceleration throughout the year. Given this growth profile, coupled with our productivity actions, we expect to see well over 1 point of pretax margin expansion in each of these segments.

軟體和諮詢業務的穩健成長支撐了我們的營收預期。軟體業務方面，鑑於我們現有的業務線、創新投入以及收購的貢獻，我們預計營收成長將略高於我們中等個位數成長模型的上限。諮詢業務方面，我們穩健的簽約量和訂單出貨比支撐營收成長6%至8%，且全年成長速度將持續加速。鑑於此成長態勢，加上我們提高生產效率的舉措，我們預期上述每個業務部門的稅前利潤率都將成長超過1個百分點。

And then in Infrastructure, as we are entering the year 7 quarters into the z16 cycle, we expect 2024 Infrastructure revenue to decline. This should drive over 1 point impact to IBM's overall revenue growth. And given the z cycle dynamics, we expect Infrastructure pretax margin to be lower year-over-year.

在基礎設施方面，隨著我們進入z16週期的第7個季度，我們預計2024年基礎設施收入將下降。這將對IBM的整體營收成長產生超過1個百分點的影響。考慮到z週期的動態，我們預計基礎設施稅前利潤率將年減。

Bringing it all together with these segment dynamics, we expect IBM's operating pretax margin to expand by about 0.5 point, consistent with what we delivered in 2023. Our tax rate for the year should also be fairly consistent with 2023. And as always, the timing of discrete items can cause the rate to vary within the year. For free cash flow, we expect to generate about $12 billion in 2024 driven primarily by growth in adjusted EBITDA. We will have lower cash requirements driven by changes in our retirement plans, which will be offset by higher CapEx and other balance sheet dynamics.

綜合考慮這些部門的動態變化，我們預計 IBM 的稅前營業利潤率將成長約 0.5 個百分點，與 2023 年的水準保持一致。我們今年的稅率也應與 2023 年基本一致。與往常一樣，單一項目的時間安排可能會導致稅率在一年內發生變化。就自由現金流而言，我們預計 2024 年將產生約 120 億美元的收入，這主要得益於調整後 EBITDA 的成長。由於退休計畫的變化，我們的現金需求將有所降低，但這將被更高的資本支出和其他資產負債表動態所抵消。

Let me comment on a couple of items that are included in our guidance. First, we are seeing increased productivity in our business, which will lead to workforce rebalancing fairly consistent with 2023 levels. And second, as we remain focused on portfolio optimization, we expect to close the sale of the Weather Company assets in the first quarter. On a full year basis, we expect this to impact revenue growth by over 0.5 point, and any pretax gain from the transaction will be partially offset by foregone profit. In the first quarter of 2024, the company will realign its management structure to manage these assets outside of the Software segment within other divested businesses, which will provide comparability within Software on a year-over-year basis.

讓我來評論一下我們指引中包含的幾個面向。首先，我們業務的生產效率正在提高，這將導致員工隊伍的重新平衡與2023年的水平基本一致。其次，由於我們將繼續專注於投資組合優化，我們預計將在第一季完成Weather Company資產的出售。就全年而言，我們預計這將對收入成長產生超過0.5個百分點的影響，交易產生的任何稅前收益將被放棄的利潤部分抵消。在2024年第一季度，公司將調整其管理架構，將這些資產納入軟體部門以外的其他已剝離業務進行管理，這將使軟體部門內部的業績同比更具可比性。

Looking into the first quarter, I'd expect our revenue growth rate to be similar to the full year. For profit, we expect the first half to second half skew of net income to be fairly consistent with history and first quarter to be a couple of points better than last year's skew.

展望第一季度，我預計我們的營收成長率將與全年持平。就利潤而言，我們預計上半年與下半年淨利潤的偏差將與歷史水準基本一致，第一季的偏差將比去年同期高出幾個百分點。

In summary, we have a durable growth business with strong free cash flow generation. We have made a lot of progress this past year and feel good about our position as we enter 2024. Arvind and I are now happy to take your questions. Olympia, let's get started.

總而言之，我們的業務持續成長，自由現金流生成能力強勁。過去一年，我們取得了長足進步，對邁入2024年的未來發展充滿信心。 Arvind 和我現在很樂意回答大家的問題。 Olympia，我們開始吧。

Thank you, Jim. As a reminder, supplemental information is provided at the end of this presentation. (Operator Instructions) Operator, let's please open it up.

謝謝，吉姆。提醒一下，本演示結束時會提供補充資訊。 （操作員指示）操作員，請開啟它。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Wamsi Mohan with Bank of America.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Wamsi Mohan。

If we look at your cash flow performance, it's really very compelling at $12 billion on your guidance. Jim, could you maybe help us bridge from 2023 to 2024, what are the items that are driving that $12 billion in free cash flow? What's happening with maybe cash taxes within that and working capital? And any other detail that you can help parse out would be great.

如果我們看一下你們的現金流表現，你會發現，120億美元的預期目標確實非常引人注目。吉姆，你能不能幫我們規劃一下2023年至2024年之間的過渡期？這120億美元的自由現金流是由哪些因素推動的？其中的現金稅和營運資金狀況如何？如果您能提供其他細節，那就太好了。

Thanks, Wamsi. I appreciate the question overall. We're obviously very pleased. The team has executed extremely well in 2023, our strongest free cash flow since 2019, $11.2 billion, $1.9 billion year-to-year.

謝謝，Wamsi。總的來說，我很感謝你的提問。我們顯然非常高興。團隊在2023年的表現非常出色，我們的自由現金流達到了2019年以來的最高水平，達到112億美元，年增19億美元。

I think it's important, to your point, before we get to '24, to take a step back a year ago and talk about how we guided the year. And by the way, we've been consistent every quarter about our guidance of about $10.5 billion. The reason I think it's important because it goes right at the heart of your question, which is the quality and sustainability and why we here at IBM had the confidence in the guide of about $12 billion.

正如您所說，在展望2024年之前，我認為有必要回顧一下一年前的情況，並談談我們對這一年的預期。順便說一句，我們每季的預期都是105億美元左右。我認為這很重要，因為它直擊您問題的核心，即品質和永續性，以及為什麼我們IBM對120億美元的預期充滿信心。

We said a year ago about $10.5 billion. It was predominantly going to be driven by the improving fundamentals of our business, read that sustainable revenue growth, operating leverage. And that, by the way, is our model $750 million year-to-year. On top of that, remember, we had an opportunity gap coming out of fourth quarter 2022. We said we would get working capital efficiency of $400 million, and then we would have modest structural action tailwind offsetting modest cash tax headwind. That kind of brought it all together, $750-ish million from improving fundamentals of the business, $400 million.

我們一年前說過大約105億美元。這主要得益於我們業務基本面的改善，也就是可持續的收入成長和營運槓桿。順便說一下，這就是我們每年7.5億美元的模型。除此之外，請記住，我們在2022年第四季之後還存在著機會缺口。我們說過，我們將實現4億美元的營運資本效率，然後我們將有適度的結構性措施來抵消適度的現金稅逆風。所有這些加在一起，7.5億美元左右來自業務基本面的改善，4億美元。

Now how did we -- how did 2023 play out? Number one, the improving fundamentals of our business, we had a very strong second half both on our top line revenue, our portfolio mix, our productivity. And we delivered $900 million of growth in adjusted EBITDA year-to-year, which, by the way, we gave you as far as increased transparency. On top of that, we got the $400 million worth of working capital efficiency, very consistent.

那麼，2023年我們表現如何？首先，我們業務基本面不斷改善，下半年無論是營收、產品組合或生產力，都表現強勁。調整後的EBITDA年增9億美元，順便說一句，這也反映了我們透明度的提升。此外，我們也實現了4億美元的營運資本效率，並且維持了非常穩定的成長。

Then we've got -- and we capitalized on all of the productivity actions that we have done. We capitalized on being opportunistic on some real estate rationalization. That's why our CapEx was down about $400 million. By the way, full transparency, that's a timing. That was a 2024 item. We got that in 2023, so let's put that aside.

然後我們就得到了——並且充分利用了我們採取的所有生產力措施。我們抓住了一些房地產合理化的機會。這就是為什麼我們的資本支出減少了約4億美元。順便說一句，完全透明，這是一個時間問題。那是2024年的專案。我們在2023年就拿到了，所以我們先把它放在一邊。

And then we've got about $100 million worth of cash tax that came in a little bit better. So I would say, against that, very strong high-quality sustainability. That sets the baseline for '24. '24 really is simple as we said in the prepared remarks.

我們還有大約1億美元的現金稅，收入略有改善。因此，我想說，相較之下，我們的可持續性非常強勁，品質也很高。這為2024年奠定了基線。正如我們在準備好的演講稿中所說，2024年其實很簡單。

One, we see very consistent growth in the fundamentals of our business around revenue profile, margin and productivity that we will get a similar level of growth year-to-year in adjusted EBITDA. By the way, that's above our model again as I'll state, so that we did $900 million last year, we'll get it again. With that, we will also have benefits from the changes in retirement plans that many of you have written about.

首先，我們業務的基本面在收入組成、利潤率和生產力方面都呈現非常持續的成長，調整後的EBITDA（息稅折舊攤提前利潤）也將維持類似的逐年成長。順便說一句，正如我之前提到的，這再次高於我們的模型，去年我們的利潤達到了9億美元，我們今年將繼續保持這個水平。此外，我們也將從你們許多人提到的退休計畫改革中受益。

But offsetting that, we got higher cash taxes year-to-year, and we've also got CapEx that we are going to continue to invest for the long-term sustainable leadership of this company. So it's really in 2024 entirely driven by the business model of our adjusted EBITDA growth. So thank you, again, Wamsi, for the question.

但與此相抵銷的是，我們的現金稅逐年增加，而且我們還有資本支出，我們將繼續投資於公司長期可持續的領導地位。因此，2024 年的業績完全由我們調整後 EBITDA 成長的商業模式所驅動。再次感謝 Wamsi 的提問。

Our next question comes from Amit Daryanani with Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Amit Daryanani。

I guess my question will be focused on the software side. When I think about the calendar '24 guide of, I think, slightly above the mid-single-digit long-term -- medium-term target that you folks have, can you maybe talk about how do I think about the split between organic versus inorganic in '24? And if you could also perhaps unpack, what do you expect to see across some of the key segments like Red Hat that -- which I think was somewhat below your expectations in '23 and then also the TPP side would be really helpful?

我想我的問題主要集中在軟體方面。考慮到24年的預期成長目標，我認為略高於你們設定的中期個位數成長目標。您能否談談我如何看待24年有機成長和無機成長之間的比例？此外，您能否解釋一下，您預計在一些關鍵領域，例如紅帽（Red Hat）會取得怎樣的進展？我認為紅帽在2023年的表現略低於您的預期。此外，TPP方面也會對您有幫助嗎？

Okay. Amit, thank you. Let me do some of the financial bridges year-over-year then turn it over to Arvind and talk about the portfolio, the competitiveness, the innovation and why we feel very confident overall. When you look at our guide, by the way, an acceleration from 2023, I would first start with full year last year, we were very pleased with our software performance, over 5% growth year-over-year. And on a 2-year CGR against our mid-single-digit model, we're at the high end of that model.

好的。阿米特，謝謝。我先來介紹一下財務狀況，然後交給阿爾文德，談談我們的產品組合、競爭力、創新能力，以及為什麼我們整體上非常有信心。順便提一下，當你看到我們的指南時，從2023年開始加速成長，我首先從去年全年開始，我們對軟體業績非常滿意，同比增長超過5%。而且，以我們中等個位數模型的兩年複合年增長率來看，我們處於該模型的高端。

So when you look at our guide, we feel confident in the level of innovation we've been bringing in, but I would break that guide down mathematically into about 3 or 4 different buckets. Number one, I think we've proven over the last 2 years that we have rebuilt and repositioned our portfolio, and we now have a high-value recurring revenue stream that can grow in this business, offer the innovation and the success of our hardware platform business. That's about 2 points of growth of slightly above the mid-single digit model of Software. So 2 points based on credibility of our sustained growth in the high-value recurring revenue.

所以，當你看我們的指引時，你會發現我們對我們引入的創新水平充滿信心，但我會用數學的方式把這份指引分解成大約3到4個不同的部分。首先，我認為我們在過去兩年裡已經證明，我們已經重建並重新定位了我們的產品組合，現在我們擁有一個高價值的經常性收入流，它可以在這個業務中增長，提供創新和我們硬體平台業務的成功。這比軟體業務的中等個位數成長模式高出約2個百分點。所以，這2個百分點是基於我們高價值經常性收入持續成長的可信度。

Number two, you talked about acquisitions. We are going to continue to invest and fuel investment into our software portfolio to improve the innovation, the synergistic value, the strategic fit, the hybrid cloud and AI. You saw we closed very excited off to a great start with Apptio, and we announced the acquisition of webMethods and StreamSets. Acquisitions will probably give us a little bit less than 2 points of that growth in 2024. So 2 points from high-value recurring revenue, a little bit less than 2 points of acquisition and then Red Hat, to your point.

第二，您提到了收購。我們將持續增加對軟體產品組合的投資，以提升創新能力、協同價值、策略契合度、混合雲和人工智慧。您看到，我們非常高興地宣布收購了Apptio，這是一個良好的開端，之後我們也宣布了對webMethods和StreamSets的收購。收購可能會在2024年為我們帶來略低於2個百分點的成長。也就是說，高價值經常性收入貢獻了2個百分點，收購貢獻了略低於2個百分點，然後是Red Hat，正如您所說。

We actually delivered about what we said in fourth quarter. We said high single digit. We still got impacted by consumption-based services. By the way, we'll start wrapping on that later in 2024. But we're extremely excited about the acceleration of demand in our single-year bookings in our subscription book of business, 14% growth in third quarter, 17% growth in fourth quarter. Red Hat will give us about 2.5 points of growth year-over-year. And then the remaining 0.5 point is our continued growth of our Transaction Processing, and that's about 0.5 point. You add those up, you're over 6% growth. And I think we feel pretty good. But let me turn it over to Arvind.

實際上，我們在第四季度實現了預期目標，達到了高個位數成長。我們仍然受到消費型服務的影響。順便說一句，我們將在2024年晚些時候開始收尾。但我們對訂閱業務單年預訂量的需求加速成長感到非常興奮，第三季成長了14%，第四季成長了17%。紅帽將為我們帶來約2.5個百分點的年成長。剩下的0.5個百分點是我們交易處理業務的持續成長，也就是大約0.5個百分點。將這些加起來，成長率超過了6%。我覺得我們覺得相當不錯。現在讓我把時間交給Arvind。

Thanks, Jim. And Amit, the second part of that is all of the innovation that we are delivering. When we play it up against the demands in the marketplace, our AI platform is going to be a part of what fuels innovation. And as I think you all understand when people like one part of the portfolio, they tend to also leverage other parts of the portfolio.

謝謝，吉姆。阿米特，第二部分是我們正在提供的所有創新。當我們將其與市場需求結合時，我們的人工智慧平台將成為推動創新的一部分。我想大家都明白，當人們喜歡投資組合中的某一部分時，他們往往也會利用投資組合中的其他部分。

Other than the AI portfolio automation, which really helps our clients with productivity, Jim mentioned Apptio or Apptio, Turbonomic, the whole category called AIOps in the market, we believe, is going to be a big driver of demand for us. And on the mainframe, let's remember, TP does get driven by increased MIPS, and Jim talked about the increased MIPS that are out there. Those MIPS, coupled the innovation we do in that part of the portfolio, drive the growth.

除了真正幫助客戶提高生產力的AI產品組合自動化之外，Jim還提到了Apptio、Turbonomic，以及市場上被稱為AIOps的整個類別，我們相信，它們將成為我們需求的一大驅動力。在大型主機方面，請記住，TP確實受到MIPS成長的驅動，Jim也談到了現有的MIPS成長。這些MIPS，加上我們在該部分產品組合中的創新，共同推動了成長。

So it's very well balanced. You have M&A, you have Red Hat innovation, you have AI innovation, automation innovation and TP innovation. And that is really what comes together to give us that growth and give us the confidence of being able to deliver all of that growth.

所以，我們做得非常均衡。我們有併購，有紅帽創新，也有人工智慧創新、自動化創新和TP創新。這些創新共同推動了我們的成長，也讓我們有信心實現所有這些成長。

Our next question comes from Toni Sacconaghi with Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的托尼·薩科納吉。

I have one clarification and one question, please. So just on the free cash flow, Jim, I'm wondering, can you give us a bridge from net income, which I think The Street is expecting is about $9 billion or a little over for fiscal '24 and how you get to $12 billion in free cash flow, not from 2023 levels but from net income levels?

我想澄清一點，並提出一個問題。吉姆，關於自由現金流，我想知道，您能否從淨收入（我認為華爾街預計2024財年的淨收入約為90億美元或略高）的角度，給我們提供一個橋樑，您如何實現120億美元的自由現金流，不是從2023年的水平，而是從淨收入水平來看？

And maybe in that, can you just clarify how much do you expect depreciation expense to be? And how much do you expect CapEx to be and how big a contributor is that? And then secondly, on the AI book of business, I think you said low hundreds of millions that doubled. So should we be thinking $300 million to $400 million? And it sounds like 1/3 was in Software. Was that revenue recognized during the quarter? And then the other couple of hundred millions were Consulting signings? Can you just elaborate specifically on exactly what the book of business means?

或許您能解釋一下，您預計折舊費用是多少？您預計資本支出是多少？它佔比有多大？其次，關於人工智慧業務，我記得您說的是幾億美元，而且翻了一番。那我們應該認為是3億到4億美元嗎？聽起來軟體業務佔了其中的三分之一。這部分收入是在本季確認的嗎？另外幾億美元是諮詢簽約收入？能具體解釋一下業務範圍到底是什麼意思嗎？

Okay, Toni. Let me take the first piece, and I appreciate the question as always, and then Arvind can talk about the AI overall. For increased transparency -- by the way, coming out of third quarter, where we delivered free cash flow of $1 billion up year-over-year, Arvind and I and many other of the senior leaders, we've spent a tremendous amount of time with our investors. And our investors were actually guiding us, coaching us around giving increased transparency about the drivers right at the heart of your question. That's why we put in both the press release and in the supplemental earnings chart a bridge down from operating pretax income down to adjusted PTI.

好的，Toni。我先來談談第一點，一如既往地感謝你的提問。然後，Arvind 可以談談 AI 的整體情況。為了提高透明度——順便說一下，自第三季以來，我們的自由現金流年增了 10 億美元。 Arvind 和我以及其他許多高階領導都花了大量時間與投資者溝通。我們的投資者實際上一直在指導我們，指導我們如何提高透明度，從而解答你提出的問題的核心驅動因素。這就是為什麼我們在新聞稿和補充財報圖表中都添加了從稅前營業利潤到調整後稅前利潤的過渡。

Why? As I stated in Wamsi's question, for depicting the quality and sustainability of our free cash flow. So when you look at 2024 -- so to your point, I'll leave '23 aside. When you look at '24, it's entirely going to be driven and more by the growth in adjusted EBITDA. And when you look at net income and you break it down, there's not that much difference between net income overall and the adjusted EBITDA overall. So the $900 million is purely a function of the confidence we have in the portfolio, the mix, the scale, the operating leverage and the productivity, which you heard on the prepared remarks, we took up to $3 billion here as an annual exit run rate by the end of 2024.

為什麼？正如我在 Wamsi 的問題中所說，這是為了描述我們自由現金流的品質和可持續性。所以，當你展望 2024 年時——就你的觀點而言，我將 2023 年放在一邊。當你展望 2024 年時，它完全將更多地由調整後 EBITDA 的成長所驅動。當你查看淨收入並將其分解時，你會發現整體淨收入和調整後 EBITDA 之間並沒有太大的差異。因此，9 億美元純粹取決於我們對投資組合、業務組合、規模、營運槓桿和生產力的信心，正如你在準備好的發言中聽到的那樣，到 2024 年底，我們每年的退出率將達到 30 億美元。

So it's an entirely driven balance sheet. We'll have dynamics going one way or the other, cash tax, modest headwind. But those all kind of wash out. It's going to be entirely driven by the business fundamentals.

所以，這是一張完全由業務驅動的資產負債表。我們會受到各種因素的影響，例如現金稅、適度的逆風。但這些都會被抵消。最終，它將完全由業務基本面驅動。

Thanks, Jim. So Toni, on the AI book of business, this is not all revenue in the quarter. I would just begin with that statement to set it straight. At this stage, we wanted to start looking at what is our momentum, what is the sentiment from our clients. So we went to a measure that is more reflective of, I'll use the word signings. What is the commitment the clients are making to us?

謝謝，吉姆。托尼，關於人工智慧業務，這並非本季的全部收入。我首先要澄清一下。在這個階段，我們想要開始關注我們的發展勢頭，以及客戶的情緒。所以我們採用了一個更能反映——我會用「簽約」這個詞——的指標。客戶對我們做了什麼承諾？

Consulting is straightforward. It is the signings. Consulting signings are anywhere from 12 to 24 months on average is how much time they play out over there. And on Software, it's what they're committing to. And we are using SaaS ACV. So it's a 12-month commitment, which is typical for as a Service as well as, since we do offer our portfolio both ways as license or as a Service, it includes the license piece as well.

諮詢很簡單，就是簽約。諮詢簽約平均需要12到24個月，這是他們在那裡工作的時間。軟體方面，這是他們承諾的時間。我們使用的是SaaS ACV。所以這是一個12個月的承諾，這對於「即服務」來說很常見，因為我們同時以許可證和「即服務」兩種方式提供我們的產品組合，所以它也包含許可證部分。

Now over long term, let's call it a couple of years or more, yes, the book of business should turn into an amount of revenue in a quarter, but that's going to take a bit of time to catch up. But we felt that this gives the better indicator right now of what is our traction and what is our acceleration in that part of the business.

從長遠來看，比如說幾年甚至更長時間，是的，業務帳簿應該會在一季度內轉化為收入，但這需要一些時間才能趕上。但我們認為，這目前能更好地反映出我們在該業務領域的牽引力和加速程度。

Our next question comes from Ben Reitzes with Melius Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Ben Reitzes。

Wanted to ask about Consulting. And Jim, you mentioned and disclosed high single -- high teens, sorry, bookings growth in 2023 and just at 8% off a pretty difficult comp. I was wondering how that's going to play out in terms of revenue yields in '24 and into '25. Does that give you more confidence that the second half of '24 is going to have a pickup in Consulting revenue reported?

想問一下諮詢業務的情況。 Jim，您提到並揭露了2023年的訂單量成長，大概是10%左右，而且同比增速只有8%，這相當困難。我想知道這對2024年和2025年的收入收益率會有什麼影響？這是否讓您更有信心，認為2024年下半年諮詢業務的收入會回升？

And then for Arvind, if I could just sneak more on Consulting. Your -- one of your top competitors -- your top competitor has much easier comps in terms of bookings and revenue over the next 12 months. Do you think you could continue to outperform them in the next year?

然後是Arvind，如果我可以偷偷多聊聊諮詢業務的話。你們最大的競爭對手之一——未來12個月的訂單量和收入方面，你們的競爭對手要輕鬆得多。你認為你們明年還能繼續超越他們嗎？

Thanks, Ben. Really appreciate your question -- Consulting-based question. I think the team is executing extremely well in the marketplace. And as we talked about in prepared remarks, there's real synergistic value of consulting in a hybrid cloud and AI platform-centric company. I think you've seen that play out.

謝謝，Ben。非常感謝你提出的問題—關於諮商的問題。我認為團隊在市場上的表現非常出色。正如我們在準備好的演講中所提到的，諮詢服務對於一家以混合雲端和人工智慧平台為中心的公司來說，具有真正的協同價值。我想你已經看到了這一點。

When you look at it, yes, we had a very strong year, relatively speaking, in the marketplace around Consulting in 2023. Signings growth 17%, book-to-bill over 1.15, our absolute backlog is up 8%, the strongest we've had in quite some time, by the way, stable erosion and duration is up slightly, which we expect as clients do more and more application modernization, those are long tails.

如果你看一下，是的，相對而言，我們在 2023 年的顧問市場表現非常強勁。簽約量成長了 17%，訂單出貨比超過 1.15，我們的絕對積壓訂單成長了 8%，這是我們相當長一段時間以來最強勁的成長。順便說一下，穩定的侵蝕和持續時間略有上升，我們預計隨著客戶越來越多地進行應用程式現代化，這些都是長尾效應。

So when you look at that profile and you look at how we enter 2024, we take a look at that backlog. We do our backlog runouts. We look at how much of that comes out of our waterfall of the backlog realization and how much actual sell and bill activity you got to do in the year. And that gives us confidence. We guided full year to 6% to 8%. We also said that we expect, just based on those backlog realization trends, albeit a lot of work still to get done in '24. But based on those backlog realization trends, we see an acceleration growth path throughout 2024.

因此，當您查看該概況並展望2024年時，我們會關注積壓訂單。我們會進行積壓訂單的核算。我們將查看其中有多少來自積壓訂單實現的瀑布式增長，以及您在這一年中實際完成了多少銷售和帳單活動。這給了我們信心。我們預計全年成長率將達到6%至8%。我們也表示，僅基於這些積壓訂單實現趨勢，我們就能做出預期，儘管2024年還有很多工作要做。但基於這些積壓訂單實現趨勢，我們預計2024年全年將出現加速成長。

And that tailwind into 2025, we're well in front of our skis now. But when you just look at backlog -- and by the way, backlog, when you look at 2025, the predictor indicator is only about 1/3 of that backlog sits in '25. As we enter right now in '24, about 2/3 is backlog-driven. So -- and that still looks pretty healthy growth compared to what our model looks like. So we feel pretty good about our book of business and the strategic partnership velocity, the Red Hat velocity. So I would leave it at that. Let me turn it over to Arvind.

順勢而為，2025 年我們已遙遙領先。但如果你只看積壓訂單——順便說一下，積壓訂單，當你展望 2025 年時，預測指標顯示，只有 2025 年積壓訂​​單的三分之一左右。而現在，進入 2024 年，大約 2/3 是由積壓訂單驅動的。所以，與我們的模型相比，這仍然看起來相當健康的成長。我們對我們的業務、戰略合作夥伴關係以及紅帽的速度感到非常滿意。我的話題就到這裡。讓我把時間交給 Arvind。

Thanks, Jim. So Ben, as opposed to trying to directly compare with 1 other or 2 other people, can I take it back to the market, if you don't mind. The overall consulting market seems to be in the 4% to 6% range. So we benchmark there to make sure that we're trying to take share and that we have the offerings which appeal to clients, which also allow us to keep a healthy margin in the business.

謝謝，吉姆。 Ben，與其直接和一兩個人比較，不如讓我把話題轉到市場，如果你不介意的話。整體諮詢市場的份額似乎在4%到6%之間。所以我們以此為基準，確保我們努力爭取市場份額，並提供吸引客戶的產品，同時也能讓我們保持健康的利潤率。

So when we look at it from those 2 lenses, we are going to be absolutely focused on taking share, which is why we are guiding to a higher 6% to 8% number is where we feel it will be. Then we go back to do we have the bookings that justify that? Yes, the booking is justified. But as you all know, that is some but not all of the revenue in the year. So we feel it's prudent to then guide it into the 6% to 8%, not higher. So you combine it with the offerings we have, we are also very, very focused compared to many of the players out there who are much larger. We are very focused on our strategic partners, and we are very focused on digital transformation and data and AI as opposed to a much broader swath of offerings that other people have. That gives us confidence in our growth rate, as Jim pointed out, for our Consulting business.

所以，從這兩個角度來看，我們將絕對專注於提升市場份額，因此我們預期6%到8%的預期成長率是合理的。然後，我們會回過頭來思考，我們的訂單量是否足以支撐這個目標。是的，訂單量是合理的。但如大家所知，這只是部分收入，而非全部收入。因此，我們認為謹慎的做法是將目標定在6%到8%之間，而不是更高。結合我們現有的產品，我們會發現，與許多規模更大的公司相比，我們非常非常專注。我們非常關注策略合作夥伴，我們非常專注於數位轉型、數據和人工智慧，而不像其他公司那樣提供更廣泛的產品。正如Jim指出的那樣，這讓我們對諮詢業務的成長率充滿信心。

Our next question comes from Brent Thill with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Brent Thill。

Arvind, I'm just curious if you could just give us your view of the business climate, just how things are feeling in the last quarter versus quarters before we're continuing to hear of a defund some of these software budgets from CIOs. And I'm just curious if you're hearing and seeing the same thing that we're seeing in our work.

Arvind，我很好奇，您能否談談您對商業環境的看法？上個季度的情況與之前幾季相比如何？我們之前一直聽到CIO們削減部分軟體預算的消息。您聽到和看到的是否與我們在工作中看到的一樣？

Yes, Brent. So let me address that. I'll begin by saying I see '24 playing out quite similar to '23. While there has been a lot of talk about reduced software budgets and reduced technology budgets overall, we are not seeing that. We are seeing that people are a bit more discriminating in what they're spending on. But that is as is spending more on AI, more on digital transformation, and I'll come to why, it might mean that they are sort of focusing less on some other areas.

是的，布倫特。那我來談談這個問題。首先我想說，我認為2024年的情況跟2023年非常相似。雖然有很多關於削減軟體預算和整體技術預算的討論，但我們並沒有看到這種情況。我們看到人們在支出方面更加謹慎了。但這就像在人工智慧和數位轉型上投入更多資金一樣，我稍後會解釋原因，這可能意味著他們對其他領域的關注有所減少。

So why is that? We see that there is a remarkably resilient economy. We can see that across South Asia from India to Japan, to the Middle East. Europe has kept remarkably resilient despite the conflict in Eastern Europe. Then when we come to North America, the economy here is resilient. Latin America, despite some early predictions, has actually done quite well.

那麼，為什麼會這樣呢？我們看到，經濟展現了驚人的韌性。從印度到日本，再到中東，南亞地區都可以看到這一點。儘管東歐戰亂頻傳，歐洲仍保持著驚人的韌性。北美的經濟也同樣具有韌性。拉丁美洲的表現，與早期的一些預測相反，實際上相當不錯。

You put that all together -- look, we don't forecast GDP. We just look at what other people forecast, and all of them are forecasting in the 2% range, 2%, 2.3%, same difference from our perspective. Then if you look at some of the pressures our CEO clients face, whether it's interest rates, whether it's inflation, whether it's supply chain, whether it's the demographic shifts on population, whether it's geopolitical conflicts or uncertainty, one answer that lets them grow without taking on fixed costs of either labor or physical infrastructure is technology.

綜合起來——你看，我們不預測GDP。我們只看其他人的預測，他們預測的GDP成長率都在2%、2%、2.3%左右，從我們的角度來看，差距是一樣的。然後，如果你看看我們的CEO客戶面臨的一些壓力，無論是利率、通貨膨脹、供應鏈、人口結構變化、地緣政治衝突還是不確定性，一個讓他們無需承擔勞動力或實體基礎設施固定成本就能實現增長的答案就是技術。

So we see every one of them leaning into technology as a potential answer that helps them against all of those potential headwinds. And so we feel pretty good that technology budgets should stay in line with 2023 going into '24.

所以我們看到，他們每個人都傾向於將科技視為潛在的解決方案，幫助他們應對所有潛在的挑戰。因此，我們非常有信心，2024年的技術預算應該與2023年保持一致。

Our next question comes from Erik Woodring with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的艾瑞克‧伍德林。

I just wanted to dig into the Software results a bit. And that was if we maybe set aside Red Hat, which we've spoken about, some of the other businesses continue to decelerate, especially looking at something like Data & AI or automation, especially in this climate of AI and a focus on spending there.

我只是想深入探討軟體業務的表現。如果我們拋開我們之前討論過的紅帽業務，其他一些業務的成長速度會繼續放緩，尤其是在數據、人工智慧或自動化等領域，尤其是在人工智慧大環境以及人們專注於這方面的支出的情況下。

I'm just curious, what is driving the confidence that those businesses reaccelerate? Is it customer conversations? I'd love if you could just give a bit more detail, one on, again, what happened in 4Q and kind of how you parse through some of that deceleration across those businesses? And then two, again, what's underscoring the confidence that some of these businesses then reaccelerate into next year?

我只是好奇，是什麼推動了您對這些業務重新加速發展的信心？是客戶溝通嗎？我希望您能提供更多細節，第一，第四季發生了什麼事？您是如何分析這些業務減速的原因的？第二，是什麼再次強調了您對其中一些業務明年將重新加速發展的信心？

Yes. Let's start with the bigger picture. Overall, we laid out a mid-term model. We said our Software portfolio would grow mid-single digit, by the way, coming from a prior cycle that we were very low single digits overall. And we finished this year up over 5%. We finished a 2-year CGR already 2/3 into our model at the high end of the model at 6%. Is that our aspiration? Absolutely not. It's what -- Arvind has the entire team focused on. And that's why we continue to fuel investment into new innovation both organically, inorganically.

是的。我們先從宏觀角度來看。總的來說，我們制定了一個中期模型。順便說一下，我們之前預測軟體產品組合將實現中等個位數成長，而之前一個週期我們的整體成長率非常低，只有個位數。今年我們最終實現了超過5%的成長率。我們兩年的CGR已經達到了模型的三分之二，達到了模型的高端，即6%。這是我們的期望嗎？絕對不是。這是Arvind整個團隊關注的重點。正因如此，我們才會繼續透過內生和外生的方式加大對創新的投資。

But let's take a step back how we set the year up. We set the year up, we said the year was going to be predominantly driven by the strength of our recurring revenue annuity portfolio, which, by the way, high value, 80% of our Software revenue. That's our subscription-based models, our SaaS models, our TP software, et cetera. And we said that was going to grow mid-single digit. We actually delivered on that.

但讓我們回顧一下我們是如何規劃這一年的。我們當時設定了全年業績，我們說過，今年的業績將主要由我們經常性收入年金投資組合的強勁表現驅動，順便說一句，這部分年金投資組合價值很高，占我們軟體收入的80%。這部分年金投資組合包括我們的訂閱模式、SaaS模式、TP軟體等等。我們當時就說過，這些年金投資組合的成長率將達到個位數左右。我們確實做到了。

We said then, second, prudently coming off of a peak ELA cycle, and you understand our ELA cycle extremely well in 4Q '22 that we expected a headwind. Now let's go back 90 days ago. 90 days ago, we were sitting year-to-date 6.5% total Software segment, which gave us the confidence of taking up our guidance to the high end of the mid-single-digit model. What was driving that? Both HP&S was up 7%, TP was up 6%. And underneath that, we were seeing very solid growth in our transactional business, both volume and NRR with new clients.

我們當時說過，其次，我們謹慎地走出了ELA週期的高峰。你們非常了解我們在2022年第四季的ELA週期，我們預期會出現逆風。現在讓我們回顧90天前。 90天前，我們軟體部門年初至今的整體成長率為6.5%，這讓我們有信心將我們的預期提高到中位數個位數模型的高端。是什麼推動了這項成長？銷售收入和銷售利潤均成長了7%，目標價成長了6%。在此基礎上，我們的交易業務實現了非常穩健的成長，無論是交易量還是新客戶的淨收入率（NRR）。

Now we get the fourth quarter and the ELA rep hit us. By the way, the ELA cycles give or take, they're in these ranges. They're on average about 3 years. They get probably somewhere around 40 to 50-plus percent in year 1, and then it tails off. So it's the biggest impact we'll see. We got through that in the fourth quarter, and we still delivered over 5% on a 2-year CGR. We're at the high end of the model.

現在到了第四季度，ELA 的業績對我們產生了影響。順便說一下，ELA 的周期大概是這樣的範圍。平均約 3 年。第一年大概能達到 40% 到 50% 左右，之後就逐漸下降。所以這是我們能看到的最大影響。我們在第四季度過了這個難關，而且我們仍然實現了 2 年期 CGR 超過 5% 的業績。我們處於模型的高端。

Now when you look at full year performance, Red Hat up 9%; automation, I'm directionally correct, 4% or 5%; Data & AI, 4% or 5%; security, yes, we got an execution gap on security. We got an opportunity to go fix in 2024. So I think it's actually glass half full. The innovation we're fueling in organically, the M&A portfolio, which is scaling nicely with a strategic fit, that gives us the confidence on why we're actually taking up and accelerating our growth in light of Brent's question in 2024.

現在，看看全年業績，紅帽成長了9%；自動化，我的方向是正確的，4%或5%；資料和人工智慧，4%或5%；安全，是的，我們在安全方面存在執行差距。我們有機會在2024年解決這個問題。所以我認為現在的前景是樂觀的。我們正在有機地推動創新，併購組合也在與策略契合的情況下順利擴張，這讓我們有信心，考慮到布倫特提出的2024年的問題，我們為什麼要真正地加快成長並加速成長。

Our next question comes from Matt Swanson with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的 Matt Swanson。

Congratulations on both the free cash flow and then also obviously the free cash flow going into next year. Maybe focusing even more so on the Software side and just thinking solely on that 2.5 points of growth that's expected to come from the Red Hat. I mean you've talked about the Consulting strength that you're hearing around both cloud and application modernization. Are there any other signs you're hearing specifically from like pipeline or customer conversations about an improving demand environment for Red Hat specifically? And then maybe just as like a caveat, how maybe some of the cloud cost optimizations impacted Red Hat in 2023?

恭喜你們實現了自由現金流，當然也祝賀你們明年的自由現金流。或許應該更關注軟體方面，只考慮預計來自紅帽的2.5個百分點的成長。您之前提到了紅帽在雲端運算和應用程式現代化方面的諮詢實力。您是否從管道或客戶溝通中聽到了其他跡象，表明紅帽的需求環境正在改善？還有，要注意的是，一些雲端成本優化措施可能會對2023年的紅帽產生什麼影響？

Yes. Matt, let me take that. So when we look at Red Hat, while there are many products in the portfolio, 3 are the valves that drive the forward performance. So Red Hat Linux, as we look at the overall usage of Linux, as we look at customers being even more concerned about patching, security and making sure that hackers can't break into their infrastructure and we look at the sheer volatility that happens, I'll call it, in the unfettered open source world, it drives a lot of demand for Red Hat. And we're beginning to see not just enterprise customers but even many ISVs begin to embrace that.

是的，馬特，我來解釋一下。就紅帽而言，雖然產品組合中有很多產品，但推動其業績成長的關鍵因素有三。就紅帽 Linux 而言，從 Linux 的整體使用情況來看，我們看到客戶越來越關注補丁、安全性以及確保駭客無法入侵其基礎設施，而且我們看到在不受約束的開源世界中，我稱之為劇烈波動，這推動了對紅帽的大量需求。我們開始看到，不僅是企業客戶，甚至許多 ISV 也開始接受它。

As we look at OpenShift, I go back to a fundamental. I think most of our clients have now acknowledged that a hybrid environment is their reality, meaning multiple public clouds and their own data centers are private. In that environment, OpenShift is the leading platform that gives them the flexibility to take an application and run it across all of those. And in this day and age when people have thousands of applications and the ones they're ready to deploy without having thousands of people, Ansible give them the platform to go do that. Those 3 combined roll up into the 17% increase in bookings that Jim referenced on the call. So that's not a leading indicator that is actually already done.

當我們討論 OpenShift 時，我回顧了一個基本原則。我認為我們的大多數客戶現在已經意識到，混合環境是他們的現實，這意味著多個公有雲和他們自己的私人資料中心。在這種環境中，OpenShift 是領先的平台，讓他們能夠靈活地將一個應用程式運行在所有這些平台上。在當今這個時代，人們擁有成千上萬個應用程序，而那些應用程式無需成千上萬的人員就可以部署，Ansible 為他們提供了實現這些目標的平台。這三者加起來，就構成了 Jim 在電話會議上提到的 17% 的預訂量增長。所以，這並不是一個實際上已經實現的領先指標。

Now with 14% in the previous quarter, that tells us the acceleration happening on that side. And we feel confident given the client conversations that these are all going to lead to Red Hat growth, putting aside the innovation that's coming from the edge platforms, from embedded Red Hat and from other markets that as the edge opens up or create yet again another additional market that has to come. So this gives us confidence that Red Hat will grow and provide that 2 to 2.5 points of overall software.

上一季成長了14%，這說明紅帽業務正在加速成長。考慮到與客戶的溝通，我們相信這些都將推動紅帽業務的成長，撇開來自邊緣平台、嵌入式紅帽以及其他市場的創新。隨著邊緣運算的開放，這些市場又將迎來新的成長。因此，我們相信紅帽業務將會成長，並為整體軟體市場貢獻2到2.5個百分點的份額。

Our last question comes from Brian Essex with JPMorgan.

我們的最後一個問題來自摩根大通的 Brian Essex。

Maybe for Jim. With regard to acquisitions, could you maybe provide some color or an update on your pipeline and offer maybe an update on your philosophy behind M&A, how you assess transactions with regard to the level of accretion you might require or what they might contribute to top line revenue growth or how they might improve ROIC long term?

也許可以問吉姆。關於收購，您能否提供一些細節或更新您的併購計劃，並談談您對併購的理念，您如何評估交易，根據您可能需要的增值水平，或者它們可能對營收成長做出什麼貢獻，或者它們如何長期提高投資回報率？

Yes, sure. I appreciate that, Brian. Thank you very much. I mean, I think Arvind has been very clear for the last 3.5 years, 4 years since he's come on. First of all, let's talk criteria, right? We always get asked size this, size that. Size is not a criteria. It is entirely -- and I complement him and the entire team, he's very focused on strategic fit to a hybrid cloud and AI platform-centric company. Those targeted areas are always centered around hybrid cloud, data, automation, security and oh, by the way, both software IP asset and consulting expertise on both sides. So strategic fit.

是的，當然。我很感激，Brian。非常感謝。我的意思是，我認為Arvind自從加入以來的三、四年一直非常清楚。首先，我們來談談標準，對吧？我們總是被問到規模這個，那個。規模不是標準。它完全是——我對他和整個團隊表示讚賞，他非常注重與一家以混合雲和人工智慧平台為中心的公司的策略契合度。這些目標領域始終圍繞著混合雲、數據、自動化、安全，以及順便說一下，雙方的軟體智慧財產權資產和諮詢專業知識。所以是戰略契合。

Second, we run this platform-centric model to create a synergistic multiplier effect in our business. So when we look at every single week a set of targeted candidates, we're looking at the synergistic effect because as a CFO, when we deploy $1, we're looking for a multiplier of hardware, software services on top of that.

其次，我們運行以平台為中心的模式，以在業務中創造協同乘數效應。因此，當我們每週檢視一組目標候選人時，我們關注的是綜效。因為身為財務長，當我們投入1美元時，我們希望在此基礎上，還能獲得硬體和軟體服務的乘數效應。

And then third, financial attractiveness. It has to be high growth, recurring revenue, highly profitable and free cash flow accretion in a quick period of time. That will vary based on software, it will vary based on consulting. But I think you're going to continue to see us be opportunistic in the marketplace. We've got the right capital structure. We've got the right FINFLEX. We ended with, what, $13.5 billion of cash on the balance sheet. So we feel pretty good about our position, and we will capitalize on that to the extent it hits and fits those criteria. So thank you for the question.

第三，財務吸引力。它必須具備高成長、經常性收入、高利潤率，以及在短時間內實現自由現金流成長。這會因軟體和諮詢業務而異。但我認為，你會繼續看到我們在市場上抓住機會。我們擁有合適的資本結構，擁有合適的FINFLEX。我們最終的資產負債表上有135億美元的現金。因此，我們對自己的狀況感到相當滿意，並且會在符合這些條件的範圍內充分利用這些現金。謝謝你的提問。

Thanks, Jim. Let me now wrap up the call. In 2023, we executed on our strategy to deliver sustained revenue growth and cash generation. The changes we have made to our business over the last couple of years and our performance reinforce my confidence as we move into 2024. I look forward to continuing this dialogue through the year.

謝謝，吉姆。現在，我來結束本次電話會議。 2023年，我們執行了持續的收入成長和現金創造策略。過去幾年，我們對業務的調整以及目前的業績，增強了我對2024年的信心。我期待今年繼續進行這樣的對話。

Diego, let me turn it back to you to close out the call.

迭戈，讓我把話題轉回給你來結束這通通話。

Thank you for participating on today's call. The conference has now ended. You may disconnect at this time.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。會議現已結束。您可以立即斷開連線。