(IBM) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome and thank you for standing by. (Operator Instructions) Today's conference is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time.

歡迎並感謝您的支持。 （操作員指示）今天的會議正在錄音。如果您有任何異議，您可以此時斷開連接。

Now I will turn the meeting over to Olympia McNerney, IBM's Global Head of Investor Relations. Olympia, you may begin.

現在我將會議交給 IBM 全球投資者關係主管 Olympia McNerney。奧林匹亞，你可以開始了。

Thank you. I'd like to welcome you to IBM's Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Presentation. I'm Olympia McNerney, and I'm here today with Arvind Krishna, IBM's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Jim Kavanaugh, IBM's Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We'll post today's prepared remarks on the IBM investor website within a couple of hours, and a replay will be available by this time tomorrow.

謝謝。歡迎您參加 IBM 2023 年第四季財報發表會。我是 Olympia McNerney，今天和 IBM 董事長兼執行長 Arvind Krishna 一起來到這裡。吉姆‧卡瓦諾 (Jim Kavanaugh)，IBM 資深副總裁兼財務長。我們將在幾個小時內將今天準備好的評論發佈在 IBM 投資者網站上，明天此時將提供重播。

To provide additional information to our investors, our presentation includes certain non-GAAP measures. For example, all of our references to revenue and signings growth are at constant currency. We provided reconciliation charts for these and other non-GAAP financial measures at the end of the presentation, which is posted to our investor website.

為了向我們的投資者提供更多信息，我們的簡報包括某些非公認會計原則措施。例如，我們所有提到的收入和簽約成長都是以固定匯率計算的。我們在演示結束時提供了這些和其他非公認會計準則財務指標的調節圖表，該圖表已發佈到我們的投資者網站上。

Finally, some comments made in this presentation may be considered forward-looking under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements involve factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially. Additional information about these factors is included in the company's SEC filings.

最後，根據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》，本簡報中的一些評論可能被視為前瞻性的。這些陳述涉及可能導致我們的實際結果存在重大差異的因素。有關這些因素的更多資​​訊包含在該公司向 SEC 提交的文件中。

So with that, I'll turn the call over to Arvind.

因此，我會將電話轉給 Arvind。

Thank you for joining us. We had a solid close to 2023 with growth across our businesses and strong cash generation. Our fourth quarter and full year results demonstrate the strength of our portfolio and sustainability of our revenue growth. We are pleased with the progress we made in 2023, delivering revenue growth of 3% and over $11 billion of free cash flow. 2/3 of the way through our mid-term model, I am proud of our achievements.

感謝您加入我們。到 2023 年，我們的業務成長強勁，現金流強勁。我們的第四季和全年業績證明了我們投資組合的實力和收入成長的可持續性。我們對 2023 年的進展感到滿意，實現了 3% 的收入成長和超過 110 億美元的自由現金流。我們的中期模型已完成 2/3，我為我們的成就感到自豪。

Since 2021, we delivered average revenue growth for IBM and for each segment at or above our model. The overall trends we are seeing reinforce our views of the future. We are confident in achieving our mid-term revenue model and the strength of our diversified business model allows us to make progress each quarter.

自 2021 年以來，我們為 IBM 和每個細分市場實現了平均收入成長，達到或高於我們的模型。我們看到的整體趨勢強化了我們對未來的看法。我們對實現中期收入模式充滿信心，多元化業務模式的優勢使我們每季都能取得進步。

We entered the year intent on enhancing our software portfolio and strengthening our Consulting position. We have done both. Mid last year, we launched watsonx, our flagship AI and data platform, and we are excited by the traction we are seeing. Consulting has delivered durable revenue growth through the year despite an uneven macro environment. Our expanding ecosystem, skills and technical expertise, global reach and co-creation approach not only set us apart but also contributed to our Consulting performance outpacing that of our competitors. This year also underscored the enduring nature and relevance of our zSystems platform.

今年我們致力於增強我們的軟體產品組合併加強我們的諮詢地位。我們兩者都做到了。去年年中，我們推出了 watsonx，我們的旗艦人工智慧和數據平台，我們對所看到的吸引力感到興奮。儘管宏觀環境不平衡，諮詢業務全年仍實現了持續的收入成長。我們不斷擴大的生態系統、技能和技術專長、全球影響力和共同創造方法不僅使我們與眾不同，而且還使我們的諮詢績效超越了競爭對手。今年也強調了我們 zSystems 平台的持久性和相關性。

Before getting into the execution of our strategy, I'll make a few comments about what we see in the current environment. I expect many macro trends to be similar to 2023. Technology demand will continue to be strong and serve as a major driving force behind global economic and business growth. It allows businesses to scale, offer better services, drive efficiencies and seize new market opportunities.

在開始執行我們的策略之前，我將就我們在當前環境中看到的情況發表一些評論。我預計許多宏觀趨勢將與2023年類似。技術需求將持續強勁，並成為全球經濟和商業成長的主要驅動力。它使企業能夠擴大規模、提供更好的服務、提高效率並抓住新的市場機會。

Every client I speak with is asking about how to boost productivity with AI and how to manage their technology stack, much of which is deployed across a hybrid environment, public, private and on-premises. These trends continue to fuel demand for both hybrid cloud and artificial intelligence.

我採訪過的每一位客戶都在詢問如何透過人工智慧提高生產力以及如何管理他們的技術堆疊，其中大部分技術堆疊部署在公共、私有和本地混合環境中。這些趨勢繼續推動對混合雲和人工智慧的需求。

I will now provide some color on the progress we are making in the execution of our strategy, starting with AI. Our approach to AI for business is resonating. Earlier in '23, we introduced watsonx, IBM's core platform that enables clients to train, tune, validate and deploy AI models. We believe AI will be multimodal with our clients leveraging a combination of models: IBM's, open source, their own proprietary models and those of other companies. Flexibility of deployment is key. Simply put, we meet clients where they are and allow clients to deploy AI models across multiple environments.

現在，我將從人工智慧開始，介紹我們在執行策略方面的進展。我們的商業人工智慧方法引起了共鳴。 23 年初，我們推出了 IBM 的核心平台 watsonx，讓客戶能夠訓練、調整、驗證和部署 AI 模型。我們相信人工智慧將是多模式的，我們的客戶將利用多種模型的組合：IBM 的模型、開源模型、他們自己的專有模型以及其他公司的模型。部署的靈活性是關鍵。簡而言之，我們滿足客戶的需求，並允許客戶跨多個環境部署人工智慧模型。

In the fourth quarter, we released watsonx.governance to help clients and partners govern and instill trust in generative AI. This toolkit helps organizations manage and monitor their AI and prepare for compliance with future AI-related regulations. IBM was recently named a leader in generative AI for governance platforms by IDC. As I have mentioned before, IBM was one of the first companies to announce the indemnification of all our models. Additionally, IBM and Meta announced in December the formation of the AI Alliance, a group of 70 industry and academic leaders joining together to advance open, safe and responsible AI.

第四季度，我們發布了 watsonx.governance 來幫助客戶和合作夥伴治理並灌輸對生成式 AI 的信任。該工具包可協助組織管理和監控其人工智慧，並為遵守未來人工智慧相關法規做好準備。 IBM 最近被 IDC 評為治理平台生成式 AI 領域的領導者。正如我之前提到的，IBM 是最早宣布對我們所有型號進行賠償的公司之一。此外，IBM 和 Meta 在 12 月宣布成立人工智慧聯盟，該聯盟由 70 名產業和學術領袖組成，共同推動開放、安全和負責任的人工智慧。

We continue to believe our Consulting business will be an early beneficiary of AI. We are the only provider today that offers both the technology stack with our watsonx platform and Consulting services for deploying and managing generative AI. The early work for clients around data architecture, security and governance is critical and hard, and we think consulting expertise is going to be crucial here.

我們仍然相信我們的諮詢業務將成為人工智慧的早期受益者。我們是現今唯一同時提供 watsonx 平台技術堆疊和用於部署和管理生成式 AI 的諮詢服務的供應商。客戶圍繞資料架構、安全性和治理的早期工作至關重要且艱鉅，我們認為諮詢專業知識在這裡至關重要。

Just as we quickly ramped a meaningful practice around Red Hat to address the hybrid cloud opportunity, we are on a similar trajectory with generative AI. Consulting is a core driver of our value proposition for clients.

正如我們圍繞紅帽迅速開展有意義的實踐來應對混合雲機會一樣，我們在生成式人工智慧方面也處於類似的軌跡。諮詢是我們為客戶提供價值主張的核心驅動力。

Last quarter, I shared with you that our book of business in the third quarter specifically related to generative AI and watsonx was in the low hundreds of millions. Since then, demand continues to increase and our book of business in the fourth quarter is roughly double the third quarter amount. We continue to have thousands of hands-on client interactions, including an acceleration in pilots that were completed during the quarter.

上個季度，我與大家分享了我們第三季度與生成式 AI 和 watsonx 相關的業務量只有幾億。從那時起，需求持續增加，我們第四季的業務量大約是第三季的兩倍。我們持續與客戶進行數千次實際互動，包括加速本季完成的試點。

Software transactional revenue and SaaS ACV was approximately 1/3 of our book of business related to generative AI in the fourth quarter and 2/3 was Consulting signings. There was a balance of both large and small transactions across both segments.

第四季度，軟體交易收入和 SaaS ACV 約占我們與生成式 AI 相關業務的 1/3，其中 2/3 為諮詢簽約收入。兩個部門的大額交易和小額交易均保持平衡。

Enterprise use cases addressing code modernization, customer service and digital labor continue to offer meaningful near-term benefits to clients. We've been collaborating with numerous clients using watsonx Code Assistant for Ansible. This includes a successful pilot with Citi, where initial results point to substantial developer productivity and code quality improvements that have led to plans for a rapid expansion focused on scaling for enterprise-wide outcomes.

解決程式碼現代化、客戶服務和數位勞動力的企業用例繼續為客戶提供有意義的短期利益。我們一直在使用 watsonx Code Assistant for Ansible 與眾多客戶合作。這包括與花旗銀行的成功試點，初步結果表明開發人員生產力和程式碼品質得到了顯著提高，從而製定了專注於擴展企業範圍成果的快速擴張計劃。

This is just one of many examples. In other industries, we have done work with clients such as NatWest, Lockheed Martin and Boehringer Ingelheim. We are working on an interesting use case with the Sevilla Fútbol Club, using watsonx to find the right players to sign by describing attributes across the database of more than 200,000 scouting reports.

這只是眾多例子之一。在其他行業，我們與 NatWest、Lockheed Martin 和 Boehringer Ingelheim 等客戶進行了合作。我們正在與塞維利亞足球俱樂部合作開發一個有趣的用例，使用 watsonx 透過描述超過 200,000 份球探報告的資料庫中的屬性來找到合適的球員進行簽約。

As clients build out their AI strategies and focus on driving ROI and productivity, the importance of optimizing IT spend and consumption is magnified. Apptio, our virtual command center for managing technology investments, comes up in nearly all of my client discussions. The value proposition is clearly resonating.

隨著客戶制定人工智慧策略並專注於提高投資回報率和生產力，優化 IT 支出和消耗的重要性就會放大。 Apptio 是我們用於管理技術投資的虛擬指揮中心，幾乎出現在我所有的客戶討論中。這項價值主張顯然引起了共鳴。

Looking beyond AI, we had a number of important client wins in the fourth quarter. For example, we're helping NATO strengthen their cybersecurity posture and build out a customized solution to have greater visibility into cyber threats and respond to them more quickly. We are working with Riyadh Air to help them drive their digital and technology strategy and establish their hybrid cloud integration platform.

除了人工智慧之外，我們在第四季度贏得了許多重要的客戶。例如，我們正在幫助北約加強其網路安全態勢，並建立客製化解決方案，以更好地了解網路威脅並更快地做出回應。我們正在與利雅德航空合作，幫助他們推動數位和技術策略並建立混合雲整合平台。

We also saw meaningful Consulting renewals, which combined with new wins, highlights the focus and unique strengths of our capabilities. Our strategic partnerships with companies such as SAP, AWS, Microsoft, Salesforce and Adobe continue to expand and thrive. For instance, we are working together with Adobe to embed watsonx into their platform. We also continue to deepen our partnership with SAP through further collaboration across watsonx and Quantum.

我們也看到了有意義的諮詢續訂，這與新的勝利相結合，凸顯了我們能力的重點和獨特優勢。我們與 SAP、AWS、Microsoft、Salesforce 和 Adob​​e 等公司的策略合作夥伴關係不斷擴大和發展。例如，我們正在與 Adob​​e 合作，將 watsonx 嵌入到他們的平台中。我們也透過 watsonx 和 Quantum 之間的進一步合作，繼續深化與 SAP 的合作關係。

We also have several new watsonx ISV partners. What we see is clear: many ISVs are eager to work with us as a trusted provider that understands enterprise needs. We continue to invest and bring new innovations to the market in other areas as well. In the quarter, Red Hat enhanced its Ansible Automation Platform, introducing new offerings like Ansible Lightspeed and Event-Driven Ansible. We announced the availability of Red Hat Device Edge to manage your workloads and deliver automation at the edge. In quantum computing, we introduced Heron, the most advanced quantum processor; and the System Two, a modular quantum computer.

我們還有幾個新的 watsonx ISV 合作夥伴。我們所看到的很清楚：許多 ISV 渴望與我們合作，將我們視為了解企業需求的值得信賴的提供者。我們也在其他領域繼續投資並向市場帶來新的創新。本季度，紅帽增強了其 Ansible 自動化平台，推出了 Ansible Lightspeed 和 Event-Driven Ansible 等新產品。我們宣布推出紅帽設備邊緣來管理您的工作負載並在邊緣提供自動化。在量子運算方面，我們推出了最先進的量子處理器Heron；以及系統二，模組化量子電腦。

Focusing our portfolio remains a key priority. We completed 9 acquisitions this year, including Apptio, and we recently announced the acquisition of StreamSets and webMethods from Software AG, which we expect to close midyear. With respect to divestitures, we announced the sale of our Weather assets, which we expect to close in the first quarter. We also announced the Enterprise AI Venture Fund, a $500 million fund with the goal of partnering with the start-up community to tap into the latest AI innovations in the market and help them scale.

專注於我們的投資組合仍然是關鍵優先事項。我們今年完成了 9 項收購，包括 Apptio，最近也宣布從 Software AG 收購 StreamSets 和 webMethods，預計將於年中完成。關於資產剝離，我們宣佈出售天氣資產，預計將在第一季完成。我們也宣布成立企業人工智慧風險基金，這是一個 5 億美元的基金，旨在與新創企業社群合作，利用市場上最新的人工智慧創新並幫助它們擴大規模。

In summary, I believe that the changes we have made to our business over the last couple of years position us for the evolving technology landscape. As I reflect on our performance since we presented our mid-term model in October of 2021, I am pleased with the progress we have made internally and with our clients. We have delivered average revenue growth for IBM in line with our mid-term model. And this is true for all our segments. Software has delivered average growth at the high end of the mid-single-digit model. Consulting delivered average growth in line with the high single-digit model. And Infrastructure is well ahead of expectations. This performance gives me confidence as we move into the new year.

總之，我相信過去幾年我們對業務所做的改變使我們能夠適應不斷發展的技術環境。當我回顧自 2021 年 10 月推出中期模型以來的表現時，我對我們內部以及與客戶的進展感到滿意。我們按照我們的中期模型為 IBM 實現了平均收入成長。對於我們所有的細分市場來說都是如此。軟體在中個位數模型的高端實現了平均成長。諮詢業務實現了與高個位數模型一致的平均成長。基礎設施建設遠遠超出預期。當我們進入新的一年時，這樣的表現給了我信心。

For 2024, we expect performance in line with our mid-term model with mid-single digit revenue growth and about $12 billion of free cash flow. This keeps us firmly on a path of sustainable growth.

到 2024 年，我們預計業績將符合我們的中期模型，收入成長為中個位數，自由現金流約為 120 億美元。這使我們堅定地走在可持續增長的道路上。

Jim will now take you through the details of the quarter and our expectations for 2024. Jim, over to you.

Jim 現在將向您介紹本季的詳細資訊以及我們對 2024 年的預期。Jim，交給您了。

Thanks, Arvind. In the fourth quarter, we delivered $17.4 billion in revenue, $4.2 billion of operating pretax income and operating earnings per share of $3.87, and we generated $6.1 billion of free cash flow. This wrapped up another solid year, where we continue to deliver durable growth in our repositioned business, aligned with client priorities of digital transformation and driving productivity.

謝謝，阿爾溫德。第四季度，我們實現了 174 億美元的收入、42 億美元的稅前營業收入和 3.87 美元的每股營業利潤，並產生了 61 億美元的自由現金流。這又是一個堅實的一年，我們重新定位的業務繼續實現持久成長，與客戶數位轉型和提高生產力的優先事項保持一致。

Taking a step back, let me touch on a full year before I go into additional details of the quarter. Our revenue for the year was nearly $62 billion, up 3% and in line with our expectation 90 days ago. We generated $10.3 billion of operating pretax income and operating earnings per share of $9.62. Our free cash flow was $11.2 billion, our strongest level of cash generation since 2019.

退後一步，讓我先談談一整年的情況，然後再討論本季的更多細節。我們今年的營收接近 620 億美元，成長 3%，與我們 90 天前的預期一致。我們產生了 103 億美元的稅前營業收入，每股營業利潤為 9.62 美元。我們的自由現金流為 112 億美元，是自 2019 年以來現金產生的最高水準。

Revenue performance for the year was again led by Software and Consulting. Software grew by over 5% with good growth across Hybrid Platform & Solutions and Transaction Processing. Consulting revenue was up over 6% with solid growth every quarter and broad-based growth across all 3 lines of business, highlighting the durability of our results and differentiated client offerings.

本年度的營收表現再次由軟體和顧問領跑。軟體成長了 5% 以上，混合平台和解決方案以及交易處理都有良好的成長。諮詢收入成長了 6% 以上，每季都穩定成長，所有 3 個業務線都有廣泛的成長，凸顯了我們業績的持久性和差異化的客戶服務。

Infrastructure was down 4%, reflecting product cycle dynamics. Our revenue growth and productivity initiatives led to margin expansion and strong free cash flow generation. For the full year, we expanded operating gross profit margin by 130 basis points with every segment growing margin across every quarter. Our operating pretax margin expanded by 40 basis points, in line with our expectations and driven by strong productivity gains and operating leverage. And this includes a 110 basis point headwind from currency dynamics.

基礎設施下降 4%，反映了產品週期動態。我們的收入成長和生產力措施導致了利潤率的擴大和強勁的自由現金流的產生。全年，我們的營業毛利率提高了 130 個基點，每個部門的利潤率每季都在成長。我們的稅前營業利潤率擴大了 40 個基點，符合我們的預期，並受到生產力強勁成長和營業槓桿的推動。其中包括貨幣動態帶來的 110 個基點的逆風。

Now turning to a deeper dive on the quarter. Our revenue was up over 3%. Software revenue was up 2%. Our fourth quarter performance reflects continued growth in our recurring revenue and a wrap on last year's seasonally strong transactional performance. Consulting had another solid quarter with 5.5% revenue growth, which is a sequential improvement in the growth rate.

現在轉向更深入地研究該季度。我們的收入成長了 3% 以上。軟體收入成長了 2%。我們第四季的業績反映了我們經常性營收的持續成長以及去年季節性強勁交易業績的延續。諮詢業務又一個穩定的季度收入成長了 5.5%，這是成長率的連續改善。

We had good signings performance and a trailing 12-month book-to-bill ratio over 1.15. This continued momentum in Consulting is reflective of how we work with clients, the investment we are making in skills and talent, velocity in our strategic partnerships and our integrated value proposition.

我們的簽約表現良好，過去 12 個月的訂單出貨比超過 1.15。諮詢業的持續發展動能反映了我們與客戶合作的方式、我們對技能和人才的投資、我們策略夥伴關係的速度以及我們的綜合價值主張。

We had great Infrastructure performance this quarter. Revenue was up 2% with growth in both zSystems and Distributed Infrastructure. This performance is particularly notable given it's the seventh quarter of the z16 cycle and in our seasonally largest quarter, again, highlighting the innovation we are bringing to this mission-critical platform.

本季我們的基礎設施表現出色。隨著 zSystems 和分散式基礎設施的成長，營收成長了 2%。鑑於這是 z16 週期的第七個季度，也是我們季節性最大的季度，這一表現尤其引人注目，再次凸顯了我們為這個關鍵任務平台帶來的創新。

Looking at our profit metrics. We expanded operating gross margin by 140 basis points and operating pretax margin by 110 basis points, inclusive of 150 basis point currency headwind to pretax margin. Currency impacted operating pretax profit growth in the quarter by over $200 million. Margin expansion was driven by our operating leverage and ongoing productivity initiatives, which allowed for continued investments to drive innovation in our portfolio. You can see this in our higher R&D expense.

看看我們的利潤指標。我們將營業毛利率提高了 140 個基點，將營業稅前利潤率提高了 110 個基點，其中包括 150 個基點的貨幣逆風對稅前利潤率的影響。貨幣對本季營業稅前利潤成長的影響超過 2 億美元。利潤率的擴張是由我們的營運槓桿和持續的生產力計劃推動的，這使得我們能夠持續投資以推動我們的投資組合創新。您可以從我們較高的研發費用中看到這一點。

Our operating tax rate was 14%, which is flat versus last year. And our operating earnings per share of $3.87 was up 8%. We remain laser-focused on our productivity initiatives as we digitally transform our business processes and scale AI within IBM. This includes simplifying our application and infrastructure environments, streamlining our supply chain, aligning our teams by workflow, reducing our real estate footprint and enabling a higher value-added workforce through automation and AI-driven efficiencies.

我們的營業稅率為 14%，與去年持平。我們的每股營業利潤為 3.87 美元，成長了 8%。隨著我們對業務流程進行數位轉型並在 IBM 內擴展 AI，我們仍然高度關注我們的生產力計劃。這包括簡化我們的應用程式和基礎設施環境、精簡我們的供應鏈、透過工作流程調整我們的團隊、減少我們的房地產足跡以及透過自動化和人工智慧驅動的效率實現更高附加價值的勞動力。

Against a target of $2 billion in annual run rate savings by the end of 2024, which I mentioned back in April of last year, we have already achieved over $1.5 billion. Our productivity initiatives have allowed us to increase our investments in innovation, technical and industry skills and go-to-market capabilities, including our ecosystem. And we have accomplished this while simultaneously growing our profit margin and free cash flow, which in turn has increased our financial flexibility. This remains our playbook going forward. And given our success to date, we now believe we can achieve at least $3 billion in annual run rate savings by the end of 2024.

我在去年 4 月提到過，到 2024 年底，每年節省 20 億美元的營運費用，而我們已經實現了超過 15 億美元的目標。我們的生產力計劃使我們能夠增加對創新、技術和行業技能以及進入市場能力（包括我們的生態系統）的投資。我們實現了這一目標，同時提高了我們的利潤率和自由現金流，這反過來又提高了我們的財務靈活性。這仍然是我們未來的策略。鑑於我們迄今為止所取得的成功，我們現在相信，到 2024 年底，我們可以實現至少 30 億美元的年度運行率節省。

Overall, the combination of our revenue and margin performance resulted in 9% growth in our operating pretax profit for the quarter. This contributed to our free cash flow performance. For the year, we generated $11.2 billion of free cash flow, up $1.9 billion year-over-year. The largest driver of this growth comes from $900 million of adjusted EBITDA. For better transparency, we have included a view of our adjusted EBITDA performance in our supplemental slides.

總體而言，我們的收入和利潤率表現相結合，導致本季稅前營業利潤成長 9%。這有助於我們的自由現金流表現。今年，我們產生了 112 億美元的自由現金流，年增 19 億美元。這一增長的最大推動力來自 9 億美元的調整後 EBITDA。為了提高透明度，我們在補充幻燈片中包含了調整後 EBITDA 績效的視圖。

Our free cash flow growth also reflects benefits of about $400 million from working capital efficiencies, which is consistent with what we've been suggesting throughout the year. CapEx was also down about $400 million, reflecting actions to optimize our real estate portfolio. These actions reduced our net CapEx although had limited benefit to our profit performance.

我們的自由現金流成長也反映出營運資本效率帶來的約 4 億美元的收益，這與我們全年所建議的一致。資本支出也減少了約 4 億美元，反映出我們採取了優化房地產投資組合的行動。這些行動減少了我們的淨資本支出，儘管對我們的利潤表現的好處有限。

In terms of cash uses for the year, we invested over $5 billion to acquire 9 companies, and we returned just over $6 billion to shareholders in the form of dividends.

從今年的現金使用來看，我們投資了超過50億美元收購了9家公司，我們以股息的形式向股東返還了超過60億美元。

Looking at the balance sheet. We ended the year with a strong liquidity position with cash of $13.5 billion, which is up $4.6 billion year-over-year. Total debt is up $5.6 billion over the same period. And our debt balance ended the year at $56.5 billion, including approximately $12 billion of debt associated with our financing business. Our retirement-related plans remain in a strong financial position. At year-end, our worldwide tax-qualified plans are funded at 111% with the U.S. at 123%.

看資產負債表。年終時，我們擁有強勁的流動性頭寸，現金為 135 億美元，比去年同期增加 46 億美元。同期債務總額增加了 56 億美元。截至年底，我們的債務餘額為 565 億美元，其中包括與融資業務相關的約 120 億美元債務。我們的退休相關計畫仍保持強勁的財務狀況。到年底，我們的全球稅務合格計畫的融資率為 111%，其中美國為 123%。

Turning to our segments. Software grew 2% with growth across both Hybrid Platform & Solutions and Transaction Processing. This quarter's performance, again, reflects growth in our high-value recurring revenue base, which is up mid-single digits. I'll remind you this comprises about 80% of our annual software revenue. Transaction Processing, with its strong base of recurring revenue, delivered revenue growth of 4%. Clients continue to value this portfolio of mission-critical software, supporting growing workloads on our hardware platforms like zSystems.

轉向我們的細分市場。隨著混合平台和解決方案以及事務處理的成長，軟體成長了 2%。本季的業績再次反映了我們高價值經常性收入基礎的成長，實現了中個位數的成長。我要提醒您的是，這約占我們年度軟體收入的 80%。交易處理憑藉其強大的經常性收入基礎，實現了 4% 的收入成長。客戶持續重視這項關鍵任務軟體組合，支援 zSystems 等硬體平台上不斷成長的工作負載。

This, together with price increases, contributed to growth in both recurring and transactional software revenue in Transaction Processing for the year. Hybrid Platform & Solutions revenue was up 1%. Within this performance, Red Hat revenue was up 7%, Automation was flat, Data & AI was up 1% and Security declined.

這與價格上漲一起推動了今年交易處理領域的經常性和交易軟體收入的成長。混合平台和解決方案收入成長 1%。在這一業績中，紅帽收入成長了 7%，自動化收入持平，數據和人工智慧成長 1%，安全收入下降。

Looking across Hybrid Platform & Solutions, the strength of our recurring base of business is evident in our ARR, now $14.4 billion and up over 7% since last year. We also faced a tough compare here in the fourth quarter, wrapping on seasonally strong transactional performance, including strength in ELAs, as we discussed at the start of the year. What played out in the fourth quarter reflects just these dynamics. And while transactional revenue overall was significant, it was down year-to-year a little more than expected.

縱觀混合平台和解決方案，我們的經常性業務基礎的實力在我們的 ARR 中顯而易見，目前為 144 億美元，自去年以來增長了 7% 以上。正如我們在年初討論的那樣，我們在第四季度也面臨著艱難的比較，包括季節性強勁的交易表現，包括 ELA 的強勁表​​現。第四季的情況就反映了這些動態。儘管整體交易收入相當可觀，但年減幅度略高於預期。

In Red Hat, revenue performance was similar to last quarter as we continue to see dampened growth in consumption-based services. Our future growth indicators are encouraging. Red Hat annual bookings were up 17%, including double-digit bookings growth across all 3 key offerings: RHEL, OpenShift and Ansible. Renewals have been strong this quarter with our NRR up well over 100% and up 6 points over last year. And OpenShift continued its strong performance with annual recurring revenue of $1.2 billion.

在紅帽，收入表現與上季相似，因為我們繼續看到基於消費的服務成長受到抑制。我們未來的成長指標令人鼓舞。紅帽年度預訂量成長了 17%，其中所有 3 個主要產品（RHEL、OpenShift 和 Ansible）的預訂量均達到兩位數成長。本季續訂強勁，我們的 NRR 成長超過 100%，比去年成長 6 個百分點。 OpenShift 持續保持強勁表現，年度經常性收入達 12 億美元。

Beyond OpenShift, our platform-based approach is resonating with clients. We're seeing growing interest in our generative AI platform, watsonx, as Arvind touched on earlier. And we've been investing to both extend and expand our hybrid cloud and AI capabilities and software from new offerings in Ansible to the launch of watsonx.governance, to the announced acquisition of StreamSets and webMethods.

除了 OpenShift 之外，我們基於平台的方法也引起了客戶的共鳴。正如 Arvind 之前提到的，我們看到人們對我們的生成式 AI 平台 watsonx 越來越感興趣。我們一直在投資擴展我們的混合雲和人工智慧功能和軟體，從 Ansible 的新產品到 watsonx.governance 的推出，再到宣布收購 StreamSets 和 webMethods。

Looking at Software profit. Gross profit margin expanded and pretax margin was flat with the latter reflecting key investments in innovation and about 2 points of currency impact in the quarter. In Consulting, our revenue in the quarter was up 5.5%. We continue to see solid demand for data and technology transformation projects with a focus on AI and analytics.

看看軟體利潤。毛利率有所擴大，稅前利潤率持平，後者反映了本季對創新的關鍵投資以及約 2 個百分點的貨幣影響。在諮詢領域，我們本季的營收成長了 5.5%。我們繼續看到對以人工智慧和分析為重點的數據和技術轉型項目的強勁需求。

Clients are also prioritizing cloud modernization and cloud-based application development projects. This focus on digital transformation and AI initiatives to drive productivity and cost savings has been consistent throughout the year.

客戶還優先考慮雲端現代化和基於雲端的應用程式開發專案。全年始終保持對數位轉型和人工智慧措施的關注，以提高生產力和節省成本。

Our ability to address these client demands drove signings growth of 8% with a 1.3 book-to-bill ratio in the quarter. That caps off a solid year where signings grew at a high-teens rate. And with this, our trailing 12-month book-to-bill ratio remains over 1.15. There has been significant interest this year regarding our Consulting outperformance relative to competitors.

我們滿足這些客戶需求的能力推動本季簽約量成長 8%，訂單出貨比為 1.3。這為新的一年畫上了圓滿的句號，簽約人數以十幾歲的速度增長。因此，我們過去 12 個月的訂單出貨比仍保持在 1.15 以上。今年，人們對我們的諮詢服務優於競爭對手的表現產生了濃厚的興趣。

Let me give you my thoughts on what differentiates us. Our integrated value, investments in skills and strategic partnerships and focused execution. First, we are the only technology company with the Consulting business at scale. This unique integrated value proposition helps our clients implement digital transformations and generative AI solutions.

讓我談談我對我們的獨特之處的看法。我們的綜合價值、對技能和策略夥伴關係的投資以及專注的執行。首先，我們是唯一一家擁有規模化諮詢業務的科技公司。這種獨特的綜合價值主張幫助我們的客戶實施數位轉型和產生人工智慧解決方案。

Second, we reposition our portfolio to address our clients' top priorities through investments in skills, capabilities and strategic partnerships. Consulting is even more powerful when working in collaboration with our partners. Our strategic partnerships now make up over 40% of our Consulting revenue and delivered double-digit growth in both signings and revenue for the full year. Within this performance, our AWS and Azure practices each grew revenue more than 50% for the year.

其次，我們重新定位我們的投資組合，透過對技能、能力和策略夥伴關係的投資來解決客戶的首要任務。與我們的合作夥伴合作時，諮詢的力量會更加強大。我們的策略合作夥伴關係目前占我們諮詢收入的 40% 以上，並在全年簽約和收入方面實現了兩位數的成長。在此業績範圍內，我們的 AWS 和 Azure 實踐今年的營收成長均超過 50%。

Finally, our solid results throughout the year demonstrate our focus on execution. When you look at our 3 lines of business in Consulting, we have consistently delivered solid revenue performance. Business Transformation, revenue grew 5% for the third consecutive quarter, again, led by data and technology transformations, including AI and analytics-focused projects. Finance and supply chain transformations also contributed to growth.

最後，我們全年的紮實業績證明了我們對執行的重視。當您查看我們的 3 條諮詢業務線時，您會發現我們始終如一地提供穩健的收入表現。業務轉型方面，在數據和技術轉型（包括以人工智慧和分析為重點的項目）的帶動下，營收連續第三個季度成長 5%。金融和供應鏈轉型也促進了成長。

Technology Consulting revenue was up over 4% with growth in cloud modernization projects and cloud-based application development. Application Operations revenue grew 6% driven again by cloud application management and platform engineering services with both strategic partnerships and Red Hat engagements contributing to growth.

隨著雲端現代化專案和基於雲端的應用程式開發的成長，技術諮詢收入增長了 4% 以上。在雲端應用程式管理和平台工程服務的推動下，應用程式營運收入再次成長了 6%，策略合作夥伴關係和紅帽合作都對成長做出了貢獻。

Moving to Consulting profit. We expanded gross margin 30 basis points and delivered pretax margin of 11.5%, which is up 50 basis points year-to-year. Our pretax margin performance continues to reflect the pricing and productivity actions we have taken, offsetting increased labor costs and nearly 1 point of currency impact.

轉向諮詢盈利。我們的毛利率提高了 30 個基點，稅前利潤率達到 11.5%，比去年同期成長 50 個基點。我們的稅前利潤率表現繼續反映了我們採取的定價和生產力行動，抵消了勞動成本的增加和近 1 個百分點的貨幣影響。

In our Infrastructure business, revenue was up 2%, Hybrid Infrastructure revenue grew 7%, and Infrastructure Support declined 9%. Within Hybrid Infrastructure, zSystems revenue was up 8%. Now 7 quarters into the product cycle, z16 revenue performance has significantly outperformed prior cycles, including the successful z15 cycle.

在我們的基礎設施業務中，收入成長了 2%，混合基礎設施收入成長了 7%，基礎設施支援收入下降了 9%。在混合基礎設施領域，zSystems 收入成長了 8%。現在產品週期已進入 7 個季度，z16 的營收表現明顯優於先前的週期，包括成功的 z15 週期。

The z16 program incorporates a number of key innovations for our clients, including cloud-native development for hybrid cloud, embedded AI at scale, quantum safe cyber-resilient security, energy efficiency and strong reliability and scalability. Clients are increasingly leveraging zSystems for more and more workloads, and that translates to demand for more capacity, which we described in terms of MIPS. In fact, installed MIPS have roughly doubled over the last 2 cycles. Putting this all together, zSystems remains an enduring platform, driving not just hardware adoption but also related software, storage and services.

z16 計畫為我們的客戶整合了許多關鍵創新，包括混合雲的雲端原生開發、大規模嵌入式人工智慧、量子安全網路彈性安全、能源效率以及強大的可靠性和可擴展性。客戶越來越多地利用 zSystems 來處理越來越多的工作負載，這轉化為更多容量的需求，我們用 MIPS 來描述。事實上，已安裝的 MIPS 在過去 2 個週期中大約增加了一倍。總而言之，zSystems 仍然是一個持久的平台，不僅推動硬體採用，還推動相關軟體、儲存和服務。

Distributed Infrastructure revenue was up 7% with growth across both Power and Storage. Power performance was fueled by demand for data-intensive workloads on Power10, and Storage traction was aligned to the success of the z16 cycle we just mentioned. Infrastructure support revenue declined given our successful hardware performance.

隨著電力和儲存業務的成長，分散式基礎設施收入成長了 7%。 Power10 上資料密集型工作負載的需求推動了電源效能的發展，而儲存牽引力則與我們剛才提到的 z16 週期的成功保持一致。鑑於我們成功的硬體效能，基礎設施支援收入有所下降。

Looking at Infrastructure profit. We delivered gross profit and pretax margin expansion. Pretax margin expanded 280 basis points in the quarter, reflecting benefits from productivity while absorbing over 1 point of impact from currency.

看看基礎設施利潤。我們實現了毛利和稅前利潤率的擴張。本季稅前利潤率擴大了 280 個基點，反映了生產力帶來的好處，同時吸收了超過 1 個基點的貨幣影響。

Now let me bring it back up to the IBM level to wrap it up. As Arvind mentioned, we are now 2/3 of the way through our mid-term model. And so I'd say it's a good time to reflect on what we have accomplished over this period. Let me start with the actions we've taken to execute our strategy and deliver sustainable revenue and free cash flow growth.

現在讓我把它帶回 IBM 層面來總結。正如 Arvind 所提到的，我們的中期模型現在已完成 2/3。所以我想說，現在是反思我們在這段時期所取得的成就的好時機。讓我先介紹一下我們為執行策略並實現永續收入和自由現金流成長而採取的行動。

We aligned our business to a platform-centric model focused on hybrid cloud and AI. Our go-to-market is based on more technical and experiential selling. We opened IBM's ecosystem and strategic partnerships to give our clients greater choice and technical depth and give IBM multiple ways to win across our portfolio. We have invested in innovation and skills and pursued strategic M&A. And we presented a simplified reporting structure to give increased transparency into our performance. These actions resulted in a fundamentally different company with an improved business mix and a higher-value recurring revenue base.

我們將業務調整為以平台為中心的模型，重點是混合雲和人工智慧。我們的市場進入基於更多的技術和體驗銷售。我們開放了 IBM 的生態系統和策略合作夥伴關係，為我們的客戶提供更多選擇和技術深度，並為 IBM 提供多種方式來贏得我們的產品組合。我們投資於創新和技能，並進行策略併購。我們也提出了簡化的報告架構，以提高我們績效的透明度。這些行動使公司發生了根本性的變化，改善了業務組合，並建立了更高價值的經常性收入基礎。

Today, our growth vectors of Software and Consulting represent 75% of our revenue base, up from about 55% in 2020. And our stable recurring revenue stream represents about half of IBM's revenue. As Arvind said, our 2-year average revenue growth is in line with our mid-single-digit model, and our segments have delivered at or above the revenue models.

如今，我們的軟體和諮詢成長向量占我們收入基礎的 75%，高於 2020 年的約 55%。我們穩定的經常性收入流約佔 IBM 收入的一半。正如 Arvind 所說，我們的 2 年平均收入成長符合我們的中個位數模型，並且我們的部門的交付達到或高於收入模型。

With this backdrop, let me turn to 2024 guidance and our 2 key measures of success: revenue growth and free cash flow. We expect constant currency revenue growth in line with our mid-single-digit model. As we start the year, I think it's prudent to assume the low end of that model. And for free cash flow, we expect to generate about $12 billion.

在此背景下，讓我談談 2024 年的指導方針和我們衡量成功的兩個關鍵指標：收入成長和自由現金流。我們預期貨幣收入將持續成長，符合我們的中個位數模型。在我們開始新的一年時，我認為謹慎地假設該模型的低端。對於自由現金流，我們預計將產生約 120 億美元。

Our revenue expectations are underpinned by solid growth in both Software and Consulting. In Software, given our pipeline of business, investment in innovation and the contribution of acquisitions, we expect revenue growth slightly above the high end of our mid-single-digit model. In Consulting, our solid signings and book-to-bill ratio support revenue growth in the range of 6% to 8% with acceleration throughout the year. Given this growth profile, coupled with our productivity actions, we expect to see well over 1 point of pretax margin expansion in each of these segments.

我們的收入預期得益於軟體和諮詢業務的穩健成長。在軟體方面，考慮到我們的業務管道、創新投資和收購的貢獻，我們預計收入成長略高於我們的中個位數模型的高端。在諮詢領域，我們穩健的簽約量和訂單出貨比支持收入成長在 6% 至 8% 的範圍內，並且全年加速成長。鑑於這種成長狀況，再加上我們的生產力行動，我們預期每個細分市場的稅​​前利潤率都會成長超過 1 個百分點。

And then in Infrastructure, as we are entering the year 7 quarters into the z16 cycle, we expect 2024 Infrastructure revenue to decline. This should drive over 1 point impact to IBM's overall revenue growth. And given the z cycle dynamics, we expect Infrastructure pretax margin to be lower year-over-year.

然後在基礎設施方面，隨著我們進入 z16 週期的第 7 個季度，我們預計 2024 年基礎設施收入將下降。這將為 IBM 的整體營收成長帶來超過 1 個百分點的影響。考慮到 Z 週期動態，我們預計基礎設施稅前利潤率將年減。

Bringing it all together with these segment dynamics, we expect IBM's operating pretax margin to expand by about 0.5 point, consistent with what we delivered in 2023. Our tax rate for the year should also be fairly consistent with 2023. And as always, the timing of discrete items can cause the rate to vary within the year. For free cash flow, we expect to generate about $12 billion in 2024 driven primarily by growth in adjusted EBITDA. We will have lower cash requirements driven by changes in our retirement plans, which will be offset by higher CapEx and other balance sheet dynamics.

將所有這些與這些細分市場動態結合起來，我們預計 IBM 的稅前營業利潤率將擴大約 0.5 個百分點，與我們 2023 年的交付結果一致。我們今年的稅率也應該與 2023 年相當一致。離散項目的數量可能會導致該比率在一年內發生變化。對於自由現金流，我們預計 2024 年將產生約 120 億美元，主要由調整後 EBITDA 的成長推動。由於退休計畫的變化，我們的現金需求將降低，這將被更高的資本支出和其他資產負債表動態所抵消。

Let me comment on a couple of items that are included in our guidance. First, we are seeing increased productivity in our business, which will lead to workforce rebalancing fairly consistent with 2023 levels. And second, as we remain focused on portfolio optimization, we expect to close the sale of the Weather Company assets in the first quarter. On a full year basis, we expect this to impact revenue growth by over 0.5 point, and any pretax gain from the transaction will be partially offset by foregone profit. In the first quarter of 2024, the company will realign its management structure to manage these assets outside of the Software segment within other divested businesses, which will provide comparability within Software on a year-over-year basis.

讓我對我們指南中包含的幾個項目發表評論。首先，我們看到我們的業務生產力提高，這將導致勞動力重新平衡與 2023 年的水平相當一致。其次，由於我們仍然專注於投資組合優化，我們預計將在第一季完成天氣公司資產的出售。就全年而言，我們預計這將影響收入成長超過 0.5 個百分點，並且交易產生的任何稅前收益將被放棄的利潤部分抵消。 2024年第一季度，該公司將重新調整其管理結構，以管理軟體部門以外的其他剝離業務中的這些資產，這將提供軟體內部的同比可比性。

Looking into the first quarter, I'd expect our revenue growth rate to be similar to the full year. For profit, we expect the first half to second half skew of net income to be fairly consistent with history and first quarter to be a couple of points better than last year's skew.

展望第一季度，我預計我們的營收成長率將與全年相似。就利潤而言，我們預計上半年和下半年淨利潤的偏差將與歷史相當一致，第一季的偏差將比去年的偏差好幾個百分點。

In summary, we have a durable growth business with strong free cash flow generation. We have made a lot of progress this past year and feel good about our position as we enter 2024. Arvind and I are now happy to take your questions. Olympia, let's get started.

總之，我們擁有持久成長的業務和強勁的自由現金流生成。在過去的一年裡，我們取得了很大進展，在進入 2024 年之際，我們對自己的處境感到滿意。Arvind 和我現在很高興回答你們的問題。奧林匹亞，讓我們開始吧。

Thank you, Jim. As a reminder, supplemental information is provided at the end of this presentation. (Operator Instructions) Operator, let's please open it up.

謝謝你，吉姆。提醒一下，本簡報末尾提供了補充資訊。 （操作員指示）操作員，請開啟它。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Wamsi Mohan with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Wamsi Mohan。

If we look at your cash flow performance, it's really very compelling at $12 billion on your guidance. Jim, could you maybe help us bridge from 2023 to 2024, what are the items that are driving that $12 billion in free cash flow? What's happening with maybe cash taxes within that and working capital? And any other detail that you can help parse out would be great.

如果我們看看你們的現金流表現，按照你們的指導，120 億美元確實非常引人注目。 Jim，您能否幫助我們從 2023 年過渡到 2024 年，推動這 120 億美元自由現金流的計畫是什麼？其中現金稅和營運資金發生了什麼事？如果您能幫助解析任何其他細節，那就太好了。

Thanks, Wamsi. I appreciate the question overall. We're obviously very pleased. The team has executed extremely well in 2023, our strongest free cash flow since 2019, $11.2 billion, $1.9 billion year-to-year.

謝謝，瓦姆西。總的來說，我很欣賞這個問題。我們顯然非常高興。該團隊在 2023 年的表現非常出色，這是自 2019 年以來我們最強勁的自由現金流，為 112 億美元，比去年同期為 19 億美元。

I think it's important, to your point, before we get to '24, to take a step back a year ago and talk about how we guided the year. And by the way, we've been consistent every quarter about our guidance of about $10.5 billion. The reason I think it's important because it goes right at the heart of your question, which is the quality and sustainability and why we here at IBM had the confidence in the guide of about $12 billion.

我認為，就你的觀點而言，在我們進入 24 年前，退一步討論一年前我們是如何指導這一年的，這一點很重要。順便說一句，我們每個季度都保持一致的約 105 億美元的指導。我之所以認為它很重要，是因為它正是您問題的核心，即品質和永續性，以及為什麼我們 IBM 對大約 120 億美元的指南充滿信心。

We said a year ago about $10.5 billion. It was predominantly going to be driven by the improving fundamentals of our business, read that sustainable revenue growth, operating leverage. And that, by the way, is our model $750 million year-to-year. On top of that, remember, we had an opportunity gap coming out of fourth quarter 2022. We said we would get working capital efficiency of $400 million, and then we would have modest structural action tailwind offsetting modest cash tax headwind. That kind of brought it all together, $750-ish million from improving fundamentals of the business, $400 million.

我們一年前說過大約 105 億美元。這主要是由我們業務基本面的改善所推動的，即可持續的收入成長和營運槓桿。順便說一下，這就是我們的模型每年 7.5 億美元的收入。最重要的是，請記住，從2022 年第四季開始，我們將面臨機會缺口。我們表示，我們將獲得4 億美元的營運資本效率，然後我們將採取適度的結構性行動，抵消適度的現金稅逆風。這樣一來，7.5 億美元左右的收入來自於業務基本面的改善，其中 4 億美元。

Now how did we -- how did 2023 play out? Number one, the improving fundamentals of our business, we had a very strong second half both on our top line revenue, our portfolio mix, our productivity. And we delivered $900 million of growth in adjusted EBITDA year-to-year, which, by the way, we gave you as far as increased transparency. On top of that, we got the $400 million worth of working capital efficiency, very consistent.

2023 年我們的表現如何？第一，我們業務的基本面不斷改善，下半年我們的營收、投資組合和生產力都表現強勁。我們的調整後 EBITDA 年成長了 9 億美元，順便說一句，我們為您提供了更高的透明度。最重要的是，我們獲得了價值 4 億美元的營運資金效率，非常一致。

Then we've got -- and we capitalized on all of the productivity actions that we have done. We capitalized on being opportunistic on some real estate rationalization. That's why our CapEx was down about $400 million. By the way, full transparency, that's a timing. That was a 2024 item. We got that in 2023, so let's put that aside.

然後我們就利用了我們已經採取的所有生產力行動。我們利用了一些房地產合理化的機會主義。這就是我們的資本支出減少約 4 億美元的原因。順便說一句，完全透明，這是一個時機。那是 2024 年的計畫。我們在 2023 年就做到了這一點，所以讓我們把它放在一邊。

And then we've got about $100 million worth of cash tax that came in a little bit better. So I would say, against that, very strong high-quality sustainability. That sets the baseline for '24. '24 really is simple as we said in the prepared remarks.

然後我們還獲得了價值約 1 億美元的現金稅，情況稍好一些。所以我想說的是，與此相反，高品質的可持續性非常強。這為 24 年設定了基線。正如我們在準備好的發言中所說，'24 確實很簡單。

One, we see very consistent growth in the fundamentals of our business around revenue profile, margin and productivity that we will get a similar level of growth year-to-year in adjusted EBITDA. By the way, that's above our model again as I'll state, so that we did $900 million last year, we'll get it again. With that, we will also have benefits from the changes in retirement plans that many of you have written about.

第一，我們看到我們的業務基本面在收入狀況、利潤率和生產力方面非常穩定的成長，調整後的 EBITDA 也將實現類似水準的年成長。順便說一句，正如我將指出的，這再次高於我們的模型，因此我們去年賺了 9 億美元，我們將再次獲得它。這樣，我們也將從你們許多人所寫的退休計畫的變化中受益。

But offsetting that, we got higher cash taxes year-to-year, and we've also got CapEx that we are going to continue to invest for the long-term sustainable leadership of this company. So it's really in 2024 entirely driven by the business model of our adjusted EBITDA growth. So thank you, again, Wamsi, for the question.

但抵消了這一點的是，我們每年獲得更高的現金稅，我們也獲得了資本支出，我們將繼續投資以實現該公司的長期永續領導地位。因此，到 2024 年，這實際上完全是由我們調整後的 EBITDA 成長的業務模式所驅動的。再次感謝瓦姆西提出的問題。

Our next question comes from Amit Daryanani with Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Amit Daryanani。

I guess my question will be focused on the software side. When I think about the calendar '24 guide of, I think, slightly above the mid-single-digit long-term -- medium-term target that you folks have, can you maybe talk about how do I think about the split between organic versus inorganic in '24? And if you could also perhaps unpack, what do you expect to see across some of the key segments like Red Hat that -- which I think was somewhat below your expectations in '23 and then also the TPP side would be really helpful?

我想我的問題將集中在軟體方面。當我想到24年的日曆指南時，我想，略高於你們所製定的中個位數的長期中期目標，你們能否談談我如何看待有機農業和有機農業之間的差距？與'24中的無機物相比？如果你也可以解開包裝，你希望在像紅帽這樣的一些關鍵領域看到什麼——我認為這有點低於你在 23 年的預期，然後 TPP 方面也會真正有幫助？

Okay. Amit, thank you. Let me do some of the financial bridges year-over-year then turn it over to Arvind and talk about the portfolio, the competitiveness, the innovation and why we feel very confident overall. When you look at our guide, by the way, an acceleration from 2023, I would first start with full year last year, we were very pleased with our software performance, over 5% growth year-over-year. And on a 2-year CGR against our mid-single-digit model, we're at the high end of that model.

好的。阿米特，謝謝你。讓我逐年做一些財務橋樑，然後將其交給 Arvind 並談論投資組合、競​​爭力、創新以及為什麼我們總體上非常有信心。當你看到我們的指南時，順便說一句，從 2023 年開始加速，我首先從去年全年開始，我們對我們的軟體效能非常滿意，比去年同期成長超過 5%。根據我們的中個位數模型的 2 年 CGR，我們處於該模型的高端。

So when you look at our guide, we feel confident in the level of innovation we've been bringing in, but I would break that guide down mathematically into about 3 or 4 different buckets. Number one, I think we've proven over the last 2 years that we have rebuilt and repositioned our portfolio, and we now have a high-value recurring revenue stream that can grow in this business, offer the innovation and the success of our hardware platform business. That's about 2 points of growth of slightly above the mid-single digit model of Software. So 2 points based on credibility of our sustained growth in the high-value recurring revenue.

因此，當您查看我們的指南時，我們對我們所引入的創新水平充滿信心，但我會在數學上將該指南分解為大約 3 或 4 個不同的部分。第一，我認為我們在過去兩年中已經證明，我們已經重建和重新定位了我們的產品組合，我們現在擁有高價值的經常性收入流，可以在這項業務中增長，提供我們硬體的創新和成功平台業務。這大約是 2 個百分點的成長，略高於軟體的中個位數模型。所以 2 分是基於我們高價值經常性收入持續成長的可信度。

Number two, you talked about acquisitions. We are going to continue to invest and fuel investment into our software portfolio to improve the innovation, the synergistic value, the strategic fit, the hybrid cloud and AI. You saw we closed very excited off to a great start with Apptio, and we announced the acquisition of webMethods and StreamSets. Acquisitions will probably give us a little bit less than 2 points of that growth in 2024. So 2 points from high-value recurring revenue, a little bit less than 2 points of acquisition and then Red Hat, to your point.

第二，你談到了收購。我們將繼續對我們的軟體產品組合進行投資和推動投資，以提高創新、協同價值、策略契合度、混合雲和人工智慧。您看到我們非常興奮地結束了 Apptio 的良好開端，並且我們宣布收購 webMethods 和 StreamSets。到2024 年，收購可能會為我們帶來略低於2 個百分點的成長。所以2 個百分點來自高價值經常性收入，略低於2 個百分點的收購，然後是紅帽，就你的觀點而言。

We actually delivered about what we said in fourth quarter. We said high single digit. We still got impacted by consumption-based services. By the way, we'll start wrapping on that later in 2024. But we're extremely excited about the acceleration of demand in our single-year bookings in our subscription book of business, 14% growth in third quarter, 17% growth in fourth quarter. Red Hat will give us about 2.5 points of growth year-over-year. And then the remaining 0.5 point is our continued growth of our Transaction Processing, and that's about 0.5 point. You add those up, you're over 6% growth. And I think we feel pretty good. But let me turn it over to Arvind.

我們實際上兌現了我們在第四季度所說的內容。我們說的是高個位數。我們仍然受到基於消費的服務的影響。順便說一句，我們將在 2024 年晚些時候開始討論這一點。但我們對訂閱業務中單年預訂的需求加速感到非常興奮，第三季度增長 14%，2020 年增長 17%。第四季。紅帽將為我們帶來約 2.5 個百分點的年增長。然後剩下的 0.5 個點是我們交易處理的持續成長，大約是 0.5 個點。將這些加起來，成長率就超過 6%。我認為我們感覺很好。但讓我把它交給阿爾溫德。

Thanks, Jim. And Amit, the second part of that is all of the innovation that we are delivering. When we play it up against the demands in the marketplace, our AI platform is going to be a part of what fuels innovation. And as I think you all understand when people like one part of the portfolio, they tend to also leverage other parts of the portfolio.

謝謝，吉姆。阿米特，第二部分是我們正在提供的所有創新。當我們滿足市場需求時，我們的人工智慧平台將成為推動創新的一部分。我想你們都明白，當人們喜歡投資組合的一部分時，他們往往也會利用投資組合的其他部分。

Other than the AI portfolio automation, which really helps our clients with productivity, Jim mentioned Apptio or Apptio, Turbonomic, the whole category called AIOps in the market, we believe, is going to be a big driver of demand for us. And on the mainframe, let's remember, TP does get driven by increased MIPS, and Jim talked about the increased MIPS that are out there. Those MIPS, coupled the innovation we do in that part of the portfolio, drive the growth.

除了真正幫助我們客戶提高生產力的人工智慧組合自動化之外，Jim 還提到了 Apptio 或 Apptio、Turbonomic，我們相信市場上稱為 AIOps 的整個類別將成為我們需求的一大推動力。在大型主機上，讓我們記住，TP 確實是由增加的 MIPS 驅動的，Jim 談到了現有的增加的 MIPS。這些 MIPS 加上我們在該部分產品組合中所做的創新，推動了成長。

So it's very well balanced. You have M&A, you have Red Hat innovation, you have AI innovation, automation innovation and TP innovation. And that is really what comes together to give us that growth and give us the confidence of being able to deliver all of that growth.

所以它非常平衡。你有併購，你有紅帽創新，你有人工智慧創新，自動化創新和TP創新。這確實為我們帶來了成長，並讓我們有信心實現所有這些成長。

Our next question comes from Toni Sacconaghi with Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自托尼·薩科納吉和伯恩斯坦。

I have one clarification and one question, please. So just on the free cash flow, Jim, I'm wondering, can you give us a bridge from net income, which I think The Street is expecting is about $9 billion or a little over for fiscal '24 and how you get to $12 billion in free cash flow, not from 2023 levels but from net income levels?

我有一項澄清和一個問題。因此，就自由現金流而言，吉姆，我想知道，您能否為我們提供一個淨收入的橋樑，我認為華爾街預計24 財年淨收入約為90 億美元或稍多一點，以及如何達到12美元十億美元的自由現金流，不是來自 2023 年的水平，而是來自淨利潤水平？

And maybe in that, can you just clarify how much do you expect depreciation expense to be? And how much do you expect CapEx to be and how big a contributor is that? And then secondly, on the AI book of business, I think you said low hundreds of millions that doubled. So should we be thinking $300 million to $400 million? And it sounds like 1/3 was in Software. Was that revenue recognized during the quarter? And then the other couple of hundred millions were Consulting signings? Can you just elaborate specifically on exactly what the book of business means?

也許您能澄清一下您預期的折舊費用是多少嗎？您預計資本支出是多少？其貢獻有多大？其次，在人工智慧商業方面，我想你說的是低數億，翻了一番。那我們應該考慮 3 億到 4 億美元嗎？聽起來 1/3 是在軟體領域。該收入在本季得到確認嗎？然後另外幾億是顧問簽約？您能具體解釋一下商業書籍的具體意義嗎？

Okay, Toni. Let me take the first piece, and I appreciate the question as always, and then Arvind can talk about the AI overall. For increased transparency -- by the way, coming out of third quarter, where we delivered free cash flow of $1 billion up year-over-year, Arvind and I and many other of the senior leaders, we've spent a tremendous amount of time with our investors. And our investors were actually guiding us, coaching us around giving increased transparency about the drivers right at the heart of your question. That's why we put in both the press release and in the supplemental earnings chart a bridge down from operating pretax income down to adjusted PTI.

好吧，托尼。讓我來談談第一部分，我一如既往地感謝這個問題，然後 Arvind 可以談談人工智慧的整體情況。為了提高透明度——順便說一句，從第三季開始，我們的自由現金流同比增長了 10 億美元，Arvind 和我以及許多其他高級領導人，我們花費了大量資金與我們的投資者共度時光。我們的投資者實際上正在指導我們，指導我們提高問題核心驅動因素的透明度。這就是為什麼我們在新聞稿和補充收益圖表中都加入了從營業稅前收入下降到調整後 PTI 的橋樑。

Why? As I stated in Wamsi's question, for depicting the quality and sustainability of our free cash flow. So when you look at 2024 -- so to your point, I'll leave '23 aside. When you look at '24, it's entirely going to be driven and more by the growth in adjusted EBITDA. And when you look at net income and you break it down, there's not that much difference between net income overall and the adjusted EBITDA overall. So the $900 million is purely a function of the confidence we have in the portfolio, the mix, the scale, the operating leverage and the productivity, which you heard on the prepared remarks, we took up to $3 billion here as an annual exit run rate by the end of 2024.

為什麼？正如我在瓦姆西的問題中所說，描述了我們自由現金流的品質和可持續性。因此，當你展望 2024 年時——就你的觀點而言，我將把「23」放在一邊。當你看看 24 年時，它完全將由調整後 EBITDA 的成長所驅動，而且更多是由調整後 EBITDA 的成長所驅動的。當你查看淨利潤並將其細分時，整體淨利潤與調整後的 EBITDA 總體之間並沒有太大差異。因此，9億美元純粹是我們對投資組合、組合、規模、營運槓桿和生產力的信心的函數，你在準備好的演講中聽到了這一點，我們在這裡拿出了30億美元作為年度退出運行到2024 年底。

So it's an entirely driven balance sheet. We'll have dynamics going one way or the other, cash tax, modest headwind. But those all kind of wash out. It's going to be entirely driven by the business fundamentals.

所以這是一個完全驅動的資產負債表。我們將面臨這樣或那樣的動態，現金稅，溫和的逆風。但那些都被洗掉了。它將完全由業務基本面驅動。

Thanks, Jim. So Toni, on the AI book of business, this is not all revenue in the quarter. I would just begin with that statement to set it straight. At this stage, we wanted to start looking at what is our momentum, what is the sentiment from our clients. So we went to a measure that is more reflective of, I'll use the word signings. What is the commitment the clients are making to us?

謝謝，吉姆。所以托尼，在人工智慧業務方面，這並不是本季的全部收入。我只想從那句話開始，澄清這一點。在這個階段，我們想開始了解我們的動力是什麼，客戶的情緒是什麼。所以我們採取了一種更能反映問題的措施，我將使用「簽名」這個詞。客戶對我們所做的承諾是什麼？

Consulting is straightforward. It is the signings. Consulting signings are anywhere from 12 to 24 months on average is how much time they play out over there. And on Software, it's what they're committing to. And we are using SaaS ACV. So it's a 12-month commitment, which is typical for as a Service as well as, since we do offer our portfolio both ways as license or as a Service, it includes the license piece as well.

諮詢很簡單。這是簽名。諮詢簽約的平均時間為 12 至 24 個月，即他們在那裡踢球的時間。在軟體方面，這就是他們的承諾。我們正在使用 SaaS ACV。因此，這是一個 12 個月的承諾，這對於服務來說是典型的，因為我們確實以許可或服務的方式提供我們的產品組合，所以它也包括許可部分。

Now over long term, let's call it a couple of years or more, yes, the book of business should turn into an amount of revenue in a quarter, but that's going to take a bit of time to catch up. But we felt that this gives the better indicator right now of what is our traction and what is our acceleration in that part of the business.

現在從長遠來看，讓我們稱之為幾年或更長時間，是的，業務賬簿應該在一個季度內轉化為收入，但這需要一些時間才能趕上。但我們認為，這現在可以更好地表明我們在該業務領域的吸引力和加速程度。

Our next question comes from Ben Reitzes with Melius Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Ben Reitzes。

Wanted to ask about Consulting. And Jim, you mentioned and disclosed high single -- high teens, sorry, bookings growth in 2023 and just at 8% off a pretty difficult comp. I was wondering how that's going to play out in terms of revenue yields in '24 and into '25. Does that give you more confidence that the second half of '24 is going to have a pickup in Consulting revenue reported?

想諮詢一下諮詢。吉姆，你提到並披露了高單曲 - 高青少年，抱歉，2023 年的預訂量增長，並且只有 8% 的折扣，這是一個相當困難的競爭。我想知道 24 年和 25 年的收入收益率將如何發揮作用。這是否讓您對報告的諮詢收入在 24 年下半年回升更有信心？

And then for Arvind, if I could just sneak more on Consulting. Your -- one of your top competitors -- your top competitor has much easier comps in terms of bookings and revenue over the next 12 months. Do you think you could continue to outperform them in the next year?

然後對於 Arvind，我是否可以在諮詢方面多做一些工作。您的（您的主要競爭對手之一）未來 12 個月的預訂和收入的競爭要容易得多。你認為明年還能繼續超越他們嗎？

Thanks, Ben. Really appreciate your question -- Consulting-based question. I think the team is executing extremely well in the marketplace. And as we talked about in prepared remarks, there's real synergistic value of consulting in a hybrid cloud and AI platform-centric company. I think you've seen that play out.

謝謝，本。非常感謝你的問題——基於諮詢的問題。我認為該團隊在市場上的表現非常出色。正如我們在準備好的演講中談到的那樣，在以混合雲端和人工智慧平台為中心的公司中，諮詢具有真正的協同價值。我想你已經看到了這一點。

When you look at it, yes, we had a very strong year, relatively speaking, in the marketplace around Consulting in 2023. Signings growth 17%, book-to-bill over 1.15, our absolute backlog is up 8%, the strongest we've had in quite some time, by the way, stable erosion and duration is up slightly, which we expect as clients do more and more application modernization, those are long tails.

當你看它時，是的，相對而言，2023 年我們在諮詢市場上度過了非常強勁的一年。簽約量增長17%，訂單出貨比超過1.15，我們的絕對積壓訂單增長了8 %，是我們最強勁的一年。順便說一句，在相當長的一段時間內，穩定的侵蝕和持續時間略有增加，我們預計隨著客戶進行越來越多的應用程式現代化，這些都是長尾。

So when you look at that profile and you look at how we enter 2024, we take a look at that backlog. We do our backlog runouts. We look at how much of that comes out of our waterfall of the backlog realization and how much actual sell and bill activity you got to do in the year. And that gives us confidence. We guided full year to 6% to 8%. We also said that we expect, just based on those backlog realization trends, albeit a lot of work still to get done in '24. But based on those backlog realization trends, we see an acceleration growth path throughout 2024.

因此，當您查看該資料並查看我們如何進入 2024 年時，我們會查看該積壓訂單。我們處理積壓訂單。我們會查看其中有多少來自我們的積壓實現瀑布以及您在一年中需要進行的實際銷售和帳單活動有多少。這給了我們信心。我們預計全年成長率為 6% 至 8%。我們也表示，我們預計，僅基於這些積壓實現趨勢，儘管仍有大量工作需要在 24 年完成。但根據這些積壓訂單實現趨勢，我們看到 2024 年將出現加速成長路徑。

And that tailwind into 2025, we're well in front of our skis now. But when you just look at backlog -- and by the way, backlog, when you look at 2025, the predictor indicator is only about 1/3 of that backlog sits in '25. As we enter right now in '24, about 2/3 is backlog-driven. So -- and that still looks pretty healthy growth compared to what our model looks like. So we feel pretty good about our book of business and the strategic partnership velocity, the Red Hat velocity. So I would leave it at that. Let me turn it over to Arvind.

隨著 2025 年的順風車，我們現在已經遠遠領先我們的滑雪板了。但是，當你只看積壓工作時——順便說一下，當你看看 2025 年的積壓工作時，預測指標僅為 25 年積壓工作的 1/3 左右。當我們進入 24 年時，大約 2/3 是由積壓驅動的。所以——與我們的模型相比，這看起來仍然相當健康的成長。因此，我們對我們的業務和戰略合作夥伴速度（紅帽速度）感覺非常好。所以我就這樣吧。讓我把它交給阿爾溫德。

Thanks, Jim. So Ben, as opposed to trying to directly compare with 1 other or 2 other people, can I take it back to the market, if you don't mind. The overall consulting market seems to be in the 4% to 6% range. So we benchmark there to make sure that we're trying to take share and that we have the offerings which appeal to clients, which also allow us to keep a healthy margin in the business.

謝謝，吉姆。因此，Ben，如果您不介意的話，我可以將其帶回市場，而不是直接與另外 1 或 2 個人進行比較。整個諮詢市場似乎在 4% 到 6% 的範圍內。因此，我們在那裡進行基準測試，以確保我們正在努力搶佔市場份額，並確保我們擁有吸引客戶的產品，這也使我們能夠在業務中保持健康的利潤率。

So when we look at it from those 2 lenses, we are going to be absolutely focused on taking share, which is why we are guiding to a higher 6% to 8% number is where we feel it will be. Then we go back to do we have the bookings that justify that? Yes, the booking is justified. But as you all know, that is some but not all of the revenue in the year. So we feel it's prudent to then guide it into the 6% to 8%, not higher. So you combine it with the offerings we have, we are also very, very focused compared to many of the players out there who are much larger. We are very focused on our strategic partners, and we are very focused on digital transformation and data and AI as opposed to a much broader swath of offerings that other people have. That gives us confidence in our growth rate, as Jim pointed out, for our Consulting business.

因此，當我們從這兩個角度來看時，我們將絕對專注於搶佔市場份額，這就是為什麼我們將目標值引導至更高的 6% 至 8% 的數字，這也是我們認為的目標。然後我們回過頭來看看我們是否有足夠的預訂來證明這一點？是的，預訂是合理的。但眾所周知，這只是當年收入的一部分，但不是全部。因此我們認為將其引導至 6% 至 8% 是謹慎的做法，而不是更高。因此，將其與我們擁有的產品結合起來，與許多規模更大的玩家相比，我們也非常非常專注。我們非常關注我們的策略合作夥伴，我們非常關注數位轉型、數據和人工智慧，而不是其他人擁有的更廣泛的產品。正如吉姆指出的那樣，這讓我們對諮詢業務的成長率充滿信心。

Our next question comes from Brent Thill with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的布倫特希爾 (Brent Thill)。

Arvind, I'm just curious if you could just give us your view of the business climate, just how things are feeling in the last quarter versus quarters before we're continuing to hear of a defund some of these software budgets from CIOs. And I'm just curious if you're hearing and seeing the same thing that we're seeing in our work.

Arvind，我只是很好奇您能否向我們介紹一下您對商業環境的看法，以及上個季度與我們繼續聽到首席資訊長取消部分軟體預算之前的幾個季度的情況相比。我只是好奇你所聽到和看到的是否與我們在工作中看到的相同。

Yes, Brent. So let me address that. I'll begin by saying I see '24 playing out quite similar to '23. While there has been a lot of talk about reduced software budgets and reduced technology budgets overall, we are not seeing that. We are seeing that people are a bit more discriminating in what they're spending on. But that is as is spending more on AI, more on digital transformation, and I'll come to why, it might mean that they are sort of focusing less on some other areas.

是的，布倫特。那麼讓我來解決這個問題。首先我要說的是，我認為「24」的表現與「23」非常相似。雖然有很多關於減少軟體預算和整體技術預算的討論，但我們並沒有看到這一點。我們發現人們對自己的支出更加挑剔。但這就像在人工智慧、數位轉型上投入更多資金一樣，我會解釋為什麼，這可能意味著他們對其他一些領域的關注較少。

So why is that? We see that there is a remarkably resilient economy. We can see that across South Asia from India to Japan, to the Middle East. Europe has kept remarkably resilient despite the conflict in Eastern Europe. Then when we come to North America, the economy here is resilient. Latin America, despite some early predictions, has actually done quite well.

那麼這是為什麼呢？我們看到經濟非常有彈性。我們可以在整個南亞看到這一點，從印度到日本，再到中東。儘管東歐發生衝突，歐洲仍保持顯著的韌性。當我們來到北美時，這裡的經濟是有彈性的。儘管有一些早期預測，拉丁美洲實際上表現得相當不錯。

You put that all together -- look, we don't forecast GDP. We just look at what other people forecast, and all of them are forecasting in the 2% range, 2%, 2.3%, same difference from our perspective. Then if you look at some of the pressures our CEO clients face, whether it's interest rates, whether it's inflation, whether it's supply chain, whether it's the demographic shifts on population, whether it's geopolitical conflicts or uncertainty, one answer that lets them grow without taking on fixed costs of either labor or physical infrastructure is technology.

把所有這些放在一起——看，我們不預測 GDP。我們只看其他人的預測，他們的預測都在2%、2%、2.3%的範圍內，從我們的角度來看，差異是一樣的。然後，如果你看看我們的執行長客戶面臨的一些壓力，無論是利率、通貨膨脹、供應鏈、人口結構變化、地緣政治衝突還是不確定性，一個答案可以讓他們在沒有壓力的情況下成長。承擔勞動或物質基礎設施的固定成本就是技術。

So we see every one of them leaning into technology as a potential answer that helps them against all of those potential headwinds. And so we feel pretty good that technology budgets should stay in line with 2023 going into '24.

因此，我們看到他們每個人都傾向於將科技視為潛在的答案，以幫助他們應對所有這些潛在的阻力。因此，我們認為技術預算應該與 2023 年進入 24 世紀保持一致，這非常好。

Our next question comes from Erik Woodring with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的艾瑞克‧伍德林。

I just wanted to dig into the Software results a bit. And that was if we maybe set aside Red Hat, which we've spoken about, some of the other businesses continue to decelerate, especially looking at something like Data & AI or automation, especially in this climate of AI and a focus on spending there.

我只是想深入研究軟體結果。也就是說，如果我們拋開我們已經談到的紅帽，其他一些業務將繼續減速，特別是在數據和人工智慧或自動化等領域，尤其是在人工智慧的環境下，並專注於在那裡的支出。

I'm just curious, what is driving the confidence that those businesses reaccelerate? Is it customer conversations? I'd love if you could just give a bit more detail, one on, again, what happened in 4Q and kind of how you parse through some of that deceleration across those businesses? And then two, again, what's underscoring the confidence that some of these businesses then reaccelerate into next year?

我只是很好奇，是什麼推動了這些企業重新加速發展的信心？是客戶對話嗎？我希望您能提供更多細節，例如第四季度發生了什麼，以及您如何解析這些業務中的一些減速？還有兩個問題，是什麼讓人們對其中一些業務在明年重新加速成長充滿信心？

Yes. Let's start with the bigger picture. Overall, we laid out a mid-term model. We said our Software portfolio would grow mid-single digit, by the way, coming from a prior cycle that we were very low single digits overall. And we finished this year up over 5%. We finished a 2-year CGR already 2/3 into our model at the high end of the model at 6%. Is that our aspiration? Absolutely not. It's what -- Arvind has the entire team focused on. And that's why we continue to fuel investment into new innovation both organically, inorganically.

是的。讓我們從更大的圖景開始。總的來說，我們制定了一個中期模型。順便說一句，我們表示我們的軟體產品組合將實現中個位數成長，而上一個週期的整體成長率非常低。今年我們的業績成長了 5% 以上。我們完成的 2 年 CGR 已達到車型高階的 2/3，為 6%。這是我們的願望嗎？絕對不。這就是 Arvind 讓整個團隊關注的焦點。這就是為什麼我們繼續加大有機和無機創新的投資。

But let's take a step back how we set the year up. We set the year up, we said the year was going to be predominantly driven by the strength of our recurring revenue annuity portfolio, which, by the way, high value, 80% of our Software revenue. That's our subscription-based models, our SaaS models, our TP software, et cetera. And we said that was going to grow mid-single digit. We actually delivered on that.

但讓我們退後一步，看看我們是如何設定這一年的。我們設定了這一年，我們說這一年將主要由我們的經常性收入年金投資組合的實力驅動，順便說一下，該投資組合價值很高，占我們軟體收入的 80%。這就是我們基於訂閱的模式、我們的 SaaS 模式、我們的 TP 軟體等等。我們說這一數字將會成長到中個位數。我們確實做到了這一點。

We said then, second, prudently coming off of a peak ELA cycle, and you understand our ELA cycle extremely well in 4Q '22 that we expected a headwind. Now let's go back 90 days ago. 90 days ago, we were sitting year-to-date 6.5% total Software segment, which gave us the confidence of taking up our guidance to the high end of the mid-single-digit model. What was driving that? Both HP&S was up 7%, TP was up 6%. And underneath that, we were seeing very solid growth in our transactional business, both volume and NRR with new clients.

其次，我們說，謹慎地擺脫 ELA 峰值週期，您非常清楚我們在 22 年第四季的 ELA 週期，我們預計會出現逆風。現在讓我們回到90天前。 90 天前，我們今年迄今佔軟體業務總份額的 6.5%，這讓我們有信心接受中位數模型高端的指導。是什麼推動了這一點？ HP&S 均上漲 7%，TP 上漲 6%。在此之下，我們看到我們的交易業務（無論是新客戶數量還是NRR）都非常穩健的成長。

Now we get the fourth quarter and the ELA rep hit us. By the way, the ELA cycles give or take, they're in these ranges. They're on average about 3 years. They get probably somewhere around 40 to 50-plus percent in year 1, and then it tails off. So it's the biggest impact we'll see. We got through that in the fourth quarter, and we still delivered over 5% on a 2-year CGR. We're at the high end of the model.

現在我們進入了第四節，ELA 代表向我們襲來。順便說一句，ELA 週期的變化或變化都在這些範圍內。他們的平均年齡約為3年。他們在第一年可能達到 40% 到 50% 以上，然後逐漸減少。所以這是我們將看到的最大影響。我們在第四季度解決了這個問題，我們的 2 年 CGR 仍然超過 5%。我們處於模型的高端。

Now when you look at full year performance, Red Hat up 9%; automation, I'm directionally correct, 4% or 5%; Data & AI, 4% or 5%; security, yes, we got an execution gap on security. We got an opportunity to go fix in 2024. So I think it's actually glass half full. The innovation we're fueling in organically, the M&A portfolio, which is scaling nicely with a strategic fit, that gives us the confidence on why we're actually taking up and accelerating our growth in light of Brent's question in 2024.

現在，當你查看全年業績時，紅帽成長了 9%；自動化，我的方向是正確的，4%或5%；數據和人工智慧，4%或5%；安全，是的，我們在安全方面存在執行差距。我們有機會在 2024 年進行修復。所以我認為它實際上是半滿的。我們正在有機地推動創新，併購投資組合正在與策略契合度良好地擴展，這讓我們對為什麼我們要根據布倫特在 2024 年提出的問題實際採取並加速我們的成長充滿信心。

Our next question comes from Matt Swanson with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場的馬特·斯旺森。

Congratulations on both the free cash flow and then also obviously the free cash flow going into next year. Maybe focusing even more so on the Software side and just thinking solely on that 2.5 points of growth that's expected to come from the Red Hat. I mean you've talked about the Consulting strength that you're hearing around both cloud and application modernization. Are there any other signs you're hearing specifically from like pipeline or customer conversations about an improving demand environment for Red Hat specifically? And then maybe just as like a caveat, how maybe some of the cloud cost optimizations impacted Red Hat in 2023?

恭喜自由現金流，當然也恭喜明年的自由現金流。也許更專注於軟體方面，只考慮預計來自紅帽的 2.5 個百分點的增長。我的意思是，您已經談到了您所聽到的圍繞雲端和應用程式現代化的諮詢實力。您是否從管道或客戶對話中特別聽到了有關紅帽需求環境改善的任何其他跡象？然後也許就像一個警告一樣，一些雲端成本優化可能如何影響 2023 年的紅帽？

Yes. Matt, let me take that. So when we look at Red Hat, while there are many products in the portfolio, 3 are the valves that drive the forward performance. So Red Hat Linux, as we look at the overall usage of Linux, as we look at customers being even more concerned about patching, security and making sure that hackers can't break into their infrastructure and we look at the sheer volatility that happens, I'll call it, in the unfettered open source world, it drives a lot of demand for Red Hat. And we're beginning to see not just enterprise customers but even many ISVs begin to embrace that.

是的。馬特，讓我接受。因此，當我們看看紅帽時，雖然產品組合中有很多產品，但有 3 個產品是推動性能向前發展的關鍵。因此，紅帽 Linux，當我們觀察 Linux 的整體使用情況時，當我們看到客戶更加關心補丁、安全性並確保駭客無法侵入他們的基礎設施時，我們會觀察所發生的巨大波動，我會這樣稱呼它，在不受約束的開源世界中，它推動了對紅帽的大量需求。我們開始看到，不僅是企業客戶，甚至許多 ISV 也開始接受這一點。

As we look at OpenShift, I go back to a fundamental. I think most of our clients have now acknowledged that a hybrid environment is their reality, meaning multiple public clouds and their own data centers are private. In that environment, OpenShift is the leading platform that gives them the flexibility to take an application and run it across all of those. And in this day and age when people have thousands of applications and the ones they're ready to deploy without having thousands of people, Ansible give them the platform to go do that. Those 3 combined roll up into the 17% increase in bookings that Jim referenced on the call. So that's not a leading indicator that is actually already done.

當我們審視 OpenShift 時，我回到了基本原理。我認為我們的大多數客戶現在都承認混合環境是他們的現實，這意味著多個公有雲和他們自己的資料中心是私有的。在這種環境中，OpenShift 是領先的平台，使他們能夠靈活地獲取應用程式並在所有這些平台上運行它。在當今時代，人們擁有數千個應用程序，並且他們準備好部署而無需數千人，Ansible 為他們提供了執行此操作的平台。 Jim 在電話中提到，這 3 個因素加起來，預訂量增加了 17%。所以這並不是一個實際上已經完成的領先指標。

Now with 14% in the previous quarter, that tells us the acceleration happening on that side. And we feel confident given the client conversations that these are all going to lead to Red Hat growth, putting aside the innovation that's coming from the edge platforms, from embedded Red Hat and from other markets that as the edge opens up or create yet again another additional market that has to come. So this gives us confidence that Red Hat will grow and provide that 2 to 2.5 points of overall software.

現在上一季成長了 14%，這告訴我們這一方面正在加速。考慮到客戶的對話，我們相信這些都將導致紅帽的成長，拋開來自邊緣平台、嵌入式紅帽和其他市場的創新，隨著邊緣的開放或再次創造另一個市場額外的市場必須到來。因此，這讓我們相信紅帽將持續發展並提供 2 到 2.5 點的整體軟體。

Our last question comes from Brian Essex with JPMorgan.

我們的最後一個問題來自摩根大通的布萊恩艾塞克斯。

Maybe for Jim. With regard to acquisitions, could you maybe provide some color or an update on your pipeline and offer maybe an update on your philosophy behind M&A, how you assess transactions with regard to the level of accretion you might require or what they might contribute to top line revenue growth or how they might improve ROIC long term?

也許是為了吉姆。關於收購，您能否提供一些有關您的管道的信息或更新信息，並提供您的併購背後理念的最新信息，您如何根據您可能需要的增值水平或它們可能對營收做出的貢獻來評估交易收入成長或如何長期提高投資報酬率？

Yes, sure. I appreciate that, Brian. Thank you very much. I mean, I think Arvind has been very clear for the last 3.5 years, 4 years since he's come on. First of all, let's talk criteria, right? We always get asked size this, size that. Size is not a criteria. It is entirely -- and I complement him and the entire team, he's very focused on strategic fit to a hybrid cloud and AI platform-centric company. Those targeted areas are always centered around hybrid cloud, data, automation, security and oh, by the way, both software IP asset and consulting expertise on both sides. So strategic fit.

是的，當然。我很感激，布萊恩。非常感謝。我的意思是，我認為阿爾溫德在過去 3.5 年、上任 4 年裡一直非常清晰。首先，我們來談談標準吧？我們總是被問到這個尺寸，那個尺寸。大小不是標準。這完全是——我補充了他和整個團隊，他非常注重與以混合雲和人工智慧平台為中心的公司的策略契合。這些目標領域始終以混合雲端、資料、自動化、安全性為中心，順便說一句，還有雙方的軟體 IP 資產和諮詢專業知識。戰略契合。

Second, we run this platform-centric model to create a synergistic multiplier effect in our business. So when we look at every single week a set of targeted candidates, we're looking at the synergistic effect because as a CFO, when we deploy $1, we're looking for a multiplier of hardware, software services on top of that.

其次，我們運行這種以平台為中心的模式，以在我們的業務中創造協同乘數效應。因此，當我們每週查看一組目標候選人時，我們會考慮協同效應，因為作為首席財務官，當我們部署 1 美元時，我們會在此基礎上尋找硬體和軟體服務的乘數。

And then third, financial attractiveness. It has to be high growth, recurring revenue, highly profitable and free cash flow accretion in a quick period of time. That will vary based on software, it will vary based on consulting. But I think you're going to continue to see us be opportunistic in the marketplace. We've got the right capital structure. We've got the right FINFLEX. We ended with, what, $13.5 billion of cash on the balance sheet. So we feel pretty good about our position, and we will capitalize on that to the extent it hits and fits those criteria. So thank you for the question.

第三，財務吸引力。它必須在短時間內實現高成長、經常性收入、高利潤和自由現金流成長。這會根據軟體的不同而有所不同，也會根據諮詢的不同而有所不同。但我認為你會繼續看到我們在市場上投機取巧。我們擁有正確的資本結構。我們擁有合適的 FINFLEX。最終我們的資產負債表上有 135 億美元的現金。因此，我們對自己的立場感到非常滿意，並且我們將在其達到並符合這些標準的範圍內利用這一點。謝謝你的提問。

Thanks, Jim. Let me now wrap up the call. In 2023, we executed on our strategy to deliver sustained revenue growth and cash generation. The changes we have made to our business over the last couple of years and our performance reinforce my confidence as we move into 2024. I look forward to continuing this dialogue through the year.

謝謝，吉姆。現在讓我結束這通通話。 2023 年，我們執行了實現持續收入成長和現金產生的策略。在我們邁入 2024 年之際，過去幾年我們對業務所做的改變和我們的業績增強了我的信心。我期待在這一年中繼續這種對話。

Diego, let me turn it back to you to close out the call.

迭戈，讓我把它轉給你來結束這通電話。

Thank you for participating on today's call. The conference has now ended. You may disconnect at this time.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。會議現已結束。此時您可以斷開連線。