International Business Machines Corp (IBM) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome, and thank you for standing by. (Operator Instructions) Today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) Now I will turn the meeting over to Ms. Patricia Murphy, IBM's Vice President, Investor Relations. Ma'am, you may begin.

歡迎，感謝您的支持。 （操作員指示）今天的會議正在錄製。 （操作員指示） 現在我將會議交給 IBM 投資者關係副總裁 Patricia Murphy 女士。女士，您可以開始了。

Thank you. I'd like to welcome you to IBM's Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Presentation. I'm here today with Arvind Krishna, IBM's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Jim Kavanaugh, IBM's Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝。歡迎您參加 IBM 2023 年第二季度收益發布會。今天我和 IBM 董事長兼首席執行官 Arvind Krishna 一起來到這裡。吉姆·卡瓦諾 (Jim Kavanaugh)，IBM 高級副總裁兼首席財務官。

We'll post today's prepared remarks on the IBM investor website within a couple of hours, and a replay will be available by this time tomorrow.

我們將在幾個小時內將今天準備好的評論發佈在 IBM 投資者網站上，明天此時將提供重播。

To provide additional information to our investors, our presentation includes certain non-GAAP measures. For example, all of our references to revenue and signings growth are at constant currency. We have provided reconciliation charts for these and other non-GAAP measures at the end of the presentation, which is posted to our investor website.

為了向我們的投資者提供更多信息，我們的演示文稿包括某些非公認會計原則措施。例如，我們所有提到的收入和簽約增長都是按固定匯率計算的。我們在演示結束時提供了這些和其他非公認會計準則衡量標準的調節圖表，該圖表已發佈到我們的投資者網站上。

Finally, some comments made in this presentation may be considered forward-looking under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements involve factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially. Additional information about these factors is included in the company's SEC filings.

最後，根據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》，本演示文稿中的一些評論可能被視為前瞻性的。這些陳述涉及可能導致我們的實際結果存在重大差異的因素。有關這些因素的更多信息包含在該公司向 SEC 提交的文件中。

So with that, I'll turn the call over to Arvind.

因此，我會將電話轉給 Arvind。

Thank you for being here. Our second quarter results reflect continued solid execution of our hybrid cloud and AI strategy. We again had strength in our growth vectors, our software and consulting and solid cash generation, consistent with our financial model.

非常感謝您的到來。我們第二季度的業績反映了我們對混合雲和人工智能戰略的持續紮實執行。我們在增長向量、軟件和諮詢以及穩定的現金生成方面再次擁有優勢，這與我們的財務模式一致。

Clients and partners continue to view technology as a source of competitive advantage. Clients turn to us to speed up their transformation journeys, modernize applications and optimize their business workflows. At the same time, they continue to prioritize projects that focus on productivity and deliver quick time to value. To seize this opportunity, we are bringing new innovations to market, expanding strategic partnerships and making investments in targeted growth markets while unlocking value through our productivity initiatives. All of this gives us confidence in our ability to achieve our full year expectations for revenue and free cash flow, which remain our 2 primary areas of focus.

客戶和合作夥伴繼續將技術視為競爭優勢的來源。客戶求助於我們來加快他們的轉型之旅、實現應用程序現代化並優化他們的業務工作流程。與此同時，他們繼續優先考慮注重生產力并快速實現價值的項目。為了抓住這一機遇，我們正在將新的創新推向市場，擴大戰略合作夥伴關係，並對目標增長市場進行投資，同時通過我們的生產力計劃釋放價值。所有這些都讓我們對實現全年收入和自由現金流預期的能力充滿信心，這仍然是我們關注的兩個主要領域。

We have made progress in our strategy around hybrid cloud and AI, the 2 key drivers of business innovation. Hybrid cloud is the most widespread form of IT architecture. Red Hat OpenShift, our leading container platform based on open source innovations, plays a crucial role in making this possible, along with IBM Software and Infrastructure. Our consultants use their technical and business knowledge to speed up clients' digital transformation journeys and help drive adoption of our technology platforms. Our broad ecosystem of partners amplifies our reach and ability to meet client demand.

我們圍繞混合雲和人工智能（業務創新的兩個關鍵驅動力）的戰略取得了進展。混合雲是最普遍的 IT 架構形式。紅帽 OpenShift 是我們基於開源創新的領先容器平台，與 IBM 軟件和基礎設施一起在實現這一目標方面發揮著至關重要的作用。我們的顧問利用他們的技術和業務知識來加快客戶的數字化轉型之旅，並幫助推動我們的技術平台的採用。我們廣泛的合作夥伴生態系統擴大了我們滿足客戶需求的影響力和能力。

Let me highlight a few collaborations from this past quarter that take advantage of our platform-centric approach. We're helping Air Canada improve its digital footprint, including their website, mobile application and loyalty program. Using a hybrid cloud approach helps Air Canada better connect and tap into their commercial, operational and financial data.

讓我重點介紹上個季度利用我們以平台為中心的方法的一些合作。我們正在幫助加拿大航空改善其數字足跡，包括網站、移動應用程序和忠誠度計劃。使用混合雲方法可以幫助加拿大航空更好地連接和利用其商業、運營和財務數據。

With Diageo, IBM Consulting embarked on a large global digital transformation to improve customer satisfaction, optimize business workflows and enhance its financial performance reporting capabilities.

IBM Consulting 與帝亞吉歐 (Diageo) 合作，開始了大規模的全球數字化轉型，以提高客戶滿意度、優化業務工作流程並增強其財務績效報告能力。

We also forged a strategic partnership with Nokia, where Red Hat OpenShift becomes the preferred platform provider to Nokia's core network applications business.

我們還與諾基亞建立了戰略合作夥伴關係，紅帽 OpenShift 成為諾基亞核心網絡應用業務的首選平台提供商。

This past quarter, we made strategic moves to bolster our hybrid cloud and AI capabilities with the announcement of our plans to acquire Apptio, which offers a virtual command center for CEOs, CFOs and CIOs to manage their technology investments. Apptio's offerings, combined with IBM's IT automation software and our AI capabilities, will give clients the most comprehensive approach to optimize their IT environments.

上個季度，我們宣布了收購 Apptio 的計劃，採取了戰略舉措來增強我們的混合雲和人工智能能力，Apptio 為首席執行官、首席財務官和首席信息官提供了一個虛擬指揮中心來管理他們的技術投資。 Apptio 的產品與 IBM 的 IT 自動化軟件和我們的 AI 功能相結合，將為客戶提供最全面的方法來優化其 IT 環境。

AI is a transformative technology that has the potential to unlock tremendous business value. According to a recent McKinsey study, AI could add up to $4.4 trillion annually to the global economy. Our focus is on enterprise AI designed to address these opportunities and solve business problems. The list of use cases is long and includes IT operations, code generation, improved automation, customer service, augmenting HR, predictive maintenance, financial forecasting, fraud detection, compliance monitoring, security, sales, risk management and supply chain amongst others.

人工智能是一項變革性技術，有潛力釋放巨大的商業價值。根據麥肯錫最近的一項研究，人工智能每年可為全球經濟增加 4.4 萬億美元。我們的重點是旨在抓住這些機會並解決業務問題的企業人工智能。使用案例列表很長，包括 IT 運營、代碼生成、改進的自動化、客戶服務、增強人力資源、預測性維護、財務預測、欺詐檢測、合規性監控、安全、銷售、風險管理和供應鍊等。

AI is being infused into our software products. We are already building products that address specific enterprise use cases, such as digital labor with Watson Orchestrate, customer service with Watson Assistant and code generation with Watson Code Assistant. At our Think conference in May, we announced watsonx, our enterprise-ready AI and data platform to help clients and partners capitalize on the AI opportunity. watsonx delivers the value of foundation models to the enterprise, enabling them to be more productive.

人工智能正在融入我們的軟件產品中。我們已經在構建解決特定企業用例的產品，例如使用 Watson Orchestrate 進行數字化勞動力、使用 Watson Assistant 進行客戶服務以及使用 Watson Code Assistant 進行代碼生成。在 5 月份的 Think 會議上，我們宣布了 watsonx，這是我們的企業級 AI 和數據平台，可幫助客戶和合作夥伴充分利用 AI 機會。 watsonx 為企業提供基礎模型的價值，使他們能夠提高工作效率。

We began to roll out watsonx a little over a week ago, and we are excited by the client response. To date, the platform has been shaped by more than 150 businesses across industries from telco to banking. Businesses around the world are excited about tapping foundation models and machine learning in one place with their own data to accelerate generative AI workloads.

我們在一個多星期前開始推出 watsonx，我們對客戶的反應感到興奮。迄今為止，該平台已由從電信到銀行等各行各業的 150 多家企業共同打造。世界各地的企業都對利用自己的數據在一個地方利用基礎模型和機器學習來加速生成人工智能工作負載感到興奮。

For example, Samsung is exploring generative AI to deliver unprecedented innovation for clients. Citi is pursuing the potential use of large language models for connecting controls to internal processes. NatWest is embedding watsonx into its chatbot to improve customer experience. And SAP is integrating IBM Watson AI into their solutions.

例如，三星正在探索生成式人工智能，為客戶提供前所未有的創新。花旗正在探索大型語言模型的潛在用途，以將控制與內部流程連接起來。 NatWest 正在將 watsonx 嵌入其聊天機器人中，以改善客戶體驗。 SAP 正在將 IBM Watson AI 集成到他們的解決方案中。

IBM is also working with an expanding ecosystem of partners to co-create and innovate across industries and use cases from space to sports, including work with NASA to build the first foundation model for analyzing geospatial data; and Wimbledon, where watsonx was used to produce tennis commentary.

IBM 還與不斷擴大的合作夥伴生態系統合作，跨行業和從太空到體育的用例共同創建和創新，包括與 NASA 合作構建第一個用於分析地理空間數據的基礎模型；溫布爾登網球公開賽使用 watsonx 製作網球解說。

Large language models are a step change in the evolution of AI, with more than 80% of enterprises exploring their use. We believe the opportunity for large language models for enterprises is immense given the existing amount of business data. This includes sensor data, chemistry data, materials data, geospatial data, code and, of course, speech. Because enterprise AI draws from both public and private data, it is more effectively trained when companies adopt a hybrid cloud approach.

大型語言模型是人工智能發展過程中的一個階躍變化，超過 80% 的企業正在探索其使用。我們相信，鑑於現有的業務數據量，大型語言模型為企業帶來了巨大的機會。這包括傳感器數據、化學數據、材料數據、地理空間數據、代碼，當然還有語音。由於企業人工智能同時提取公共和私有數據，因此當公司採用混合雲方法時，它可以得到更有效的訓練。

Enterprise AI can also be based on multiple models including public, private and open source. Our watsonx platform takes into account this reality and is differentiated in a few important ways. For instance, instead of relying on a single model, watsonx enables companies to leverage the best models to meet their needs, whether they're open source technologies, IBM's models or those co-created with us. Another fundamental aspect of watsonx is trust, ensuring transparency and bias-free models.

企業人工智能還可以基於多種模型，包括公共、私有和開源。我們的 watsonx 平台考慮到了這一現實，並在幾個重要方面實現了差異化。例如，watsonx 不依賴於單一模型，而是使公司能夠利用最佳模型來滿足他們的需求，無論這些模型是開源技術、IBM 的模型還是與我們共同創建的模型。 watsonx 的另一個基本方面是信任，確保模型的透明度和無偏見。

In addition, beyond offering companies the capability to tap into existing AI models, IBM empowers them to create their own. To help clients on this journey, we have over 20,000 Data & AI consultants and recently launched our new center of excellence for generative AI, already staffed with more than 1,000 consultants with specialized generative AI expertise. The investments we are making in products and skills will help us to seize the AI opportunity.

此外，除了為公司提供利用現有人工智能模型的能力外，IBM 還幫助他們創建自己的人工智能模型。為了幫助客戶踏上這一旅程，我們擁有超過 20,000 名數據和人工智能顧問，並於最近推出了新的生成式人工智能卓越中心，該中心已配備了 1,000 多名擁有專業生成式人工智能專業知識的顧問。我們在產品和技能方面的投資將幫助我們抓住人工智能機遇。

Our path is clear. In the same way we've built a consulting practice around Red Hat's hybrid cloud platform that is now measured in the billions of dollars, we will do the same with AI. And just like OpenShift as the technology platform at the heart of our hybrid cloud capabilities, watsonx will be the core technology platform for our AI capabilities.

我們的道路是明確的。就像我們圍繞紅帽混合雲平台構建的諮詢實踐（目前價值數十億美元）一樣，我們也將在人工智能方面做同樣的事情。就像 OpenShift 作為我們混合雲功能核心的技術平台一樣，watsonx 將成為我們 AI 功能的核心技術平台。

watsonx is just one of many new technology innovations. Shortly after previewing watsonx at our Think conference, at the Red Hat Summit, we introduced OpenShift AI, which is a unified solution to train, serve, monitor and manage the life cycle of AI models and applications.

watsonx 只是眾多新技術創新之一。在 Think 會議上預覽 watsonx 後不久，我們在紅帽峰會上推出了 OpenShift AI，這是一個用於訓練、服務、監控和管理 AI 模型和應用程序生命週期的統一解決方案。

We also unveiled IBM Hybrid Cloud Mesh, a SaaS solution that streamlines application-centric connectivity for edge, hybrid and multi-cloud environments. To help clients with their sustainability agendas, we launched our AI-powered, cloud-based tool that helps clients track their greenhouse gas emissions for cloud workloads.

我們還推出了 IBM Hybrid Cloud Mesh，這是一種 SaaS 解決方案，可簡化邊緣、混合和多雲環境的以應用程序為中心的連接。為了幫助客戶實現可持續發展議程，我們推出了人工智能驅動的基於雲的工具，幫助客戶跟踪雲工作負載的溫室氣體排放量。

And as an example of how we continue to push the boundaries of innovation, IBM recently demonstrated using error mitigating techniques, quantum computers can produce results at a scale of 100-plus qubits. This is a significant breakthrough that firmly puts us on a path towards building practical quantum computers that can solve hard problems in areas such as risk, finance and materials.

作為我們如何繼續突破創新界限的一個例子，IBM 最近展示了使用錯誤緩解技術，量子計算機可以產生 100 多個量子位規模的結果。這是一項重大突破，使我們堅定地走上構建實用量子計算機的道路，該計算機可以解決風險、金融和材料等領域的難題。

Let me conclude by reiterating our confidence in our strategy and execution. It is clear that the work we have done to better align IBM to the needs of our clients is paying off. The momentum in our business and continued focus on productivity position us to achieve our full year expectations and deliver sustainable revenue and free cash flow growth.

最後，我要重申我們對我們的戰略和執行的信心。顯然，我們為讓 IBM 更好地滿足客戶需求所做的工作正在取得回報。我們業務的勢頭和對生產力的持續關注使我們能夠實現全年預期，並實現可持續的收入和自由現金流增長。

With that, I would like to hand it over to Jim, who will delve deeper into our performance and expectations.

說到這裡，我想把它交給吉姆，他將更深入地研究我們的表現和期望。

Thanks, Arvind. As always, I'll start with the key financial highlights of the second quarter. We delivered $15.5 billion in revenue; $2.4 billion of operating pretax income; $2.18 of operating earnings per share; and through the first half, nearly $3.5 billion of free cash flow.

謝謝，阿爾文德。與往常一樣，我將從第二季度的主要財務亮點開始。我們實現了 155 億美元的收入；稅前營業收入24億美元；每股營業收益 2.18 美元；上半年自由現金流接近 35 億美元。

In the second quarter, we had modest revenue growth at constant currency, and that includes over 1 point of impact from the businesses we divested last year. Currency rates continue to be a headwind to growth, with dollar strengthening over the last 90 days. Currency impacted our reported revenue growth by about 80 basis points, which is about 0.5 point worse than what spot rates suggested in April. As is typical, I'll focus my comments on constant currency.

按固定匯率計算，第二季度我們的收入略有增長，其中包括我們去年剝離的業務帶來的超過 1 個百分點的影響。匯率繼續成為經濟增長的阻力，過去 90 天美元走強。貨幣對我們報告的收入增長產生了約 80 個基點的影響，這比 4 月份的即期匯率顯示的差了約 0.5 個基點。與往常一樣，我將重點關注恆定匯率。

Revenue performance was again led by software and consulting. These are growth vectors that together represent about 3/4 of IBM's revenue and contribute to a solid base of recurring revenue and profit. Software revenue was up 8%, with good growth across both hybrid platform and solutions led by Red Hat and Data & AI and transaction processing. IBM consulting revenue growth of 6% was also broad based, with growth across all 3 lines of business and geographies.

收入表現再次由軟件和諮詢領跑。這些增長向量合計約佔 IBM 收入的 3/4，並為經常性收入和利潤奠定了堅實的基礎。軟件收入增長了 8%，以紅帽、數據與人工智能和交易處理為首的混合平台和解決方案均實現了良好增長。 IBM 諮詢收入也實現了 6% 的廣泛增長，所有 3 個業務線和地區都有增長。

Our infrastructure revenue in any quarter reflects product cycle dynamics. Infrastructure revenue was down 14%. This, as expected, had a disproportional impact to IBM's overall revenue growth this quarter given the very successful launch of z16 in the second quarter last year. Looking at the 2-year compounded growth rate, infrastructure revenue was up.

我們任何季度的基礎設施收入都反映了產品週期動態。基礎設施收入下降 14%。正如預期的那樣，鑑於去年第二季度 z16 的推出非常成功，這對 IBM 本季度的整體收入增長產生了不成比例的影響。從兩年復合增長率來看，基礎設施收入有所上升。

Turning to our profit metrics. Operating gross margin expanded 140 basis points, driven by our portfolio mix and productivity. We had good performance this quarter with gross margin improvements in every reportable segment.

轉向我們的利潤指標。在我們的投資組合和生產力的推動下，營業毛利率擴大了 140 個基點。本季度我們的業績良好，每個可報告部門的毛利率都有所提高。

Our operating pretax margin was down 70 basis points. Last year, we had a gain of about $230 million from the sale of our health care software assets. Without the year-to-year impact of the divestiture gains, our operating pretax margin was up 70 basis points. This is a better indication of our ongoing operational performance.

我們的稅前營業利潤率下降了 70 個基點。去年，我們通過出售醫療保健軟件資產獲得了約 2.3 億美元的收益。如果沒有剝離收益的逐年影響，我們的稅前營業利潤率上升了 70 個基點。這更好地表明了我們持續的運營績效。

Let me comment on a couple of items within our expense profile that impacted our pretax income performance. As we discussed in the last couple of earnings calls, we address the remaining stranded costs from our portfolio actions, resulting in a higher level of workforce rebalancing activity this year, about $115 million in the quarter. Workforce rebalancing impacted our year-to-year pretax margin expansion by another 60 basis points. And then currency remained a year-to-year headwind, not only the revenue but also to our expense and pretax profit. The combination of translation and hedging impacted operating pretax profit growth by about $150 million and operating PTI margin by about 80 basis points year-to-year. As I've discussed in the past, this disproportionately impacts our product-based businesses.

讓我評論一下我們的費用概況中影響我們稅前收入表現的幾個項目。正如我們在過去幾次財報電話會議中所討論的那樣，我們解決了投資組合行動中剩餘的擱淺成本，從而導致今年勞動力再平衡活動水平更高，本季度約為 1.15 億美元。勞動力再平衡使我們的稅前利潤率同比增長又增加了 60 個基點。然後，貨幣仍然是逐年的逆風，不僅影響收入，而且影響我們的支出和稅前利潤。換算和對沖的結合使稅前營業利潤增長約 1.5 億美元，營業 PTI 利潤率同比增長約 80 個基點。正如我過去所討論的，這對我們基於產品的業務產生了不成比例的影響。

We have good momentum in our underlying operational profit performance. I mentioned a strong business mix, but we're also making progress on our productivity initiatives. We're digitally transforming IBM as client 0, simplifying workflows and deploying AI across our processes, from IT operations to HR to source to pay. The productivity benefits free up spend for reinvestment and contribute to margin expansion.

我們的基本運營利潤表現勢頭良好。我提到了強大的業務組合，但我們在生產力計劃方面也取得了進展。我們正在將 IBM 作為 client 0 進行數字化轉型，簡化工作流程並在整個流程（從 IT 運營到人力資源到採購到支付）中部署人工智能。生產率帶來的好處可以釋放用於再投資的支出，並有助於擴大利潤率。

Turning to free cash flow. We generated $2.1 billion in the quarter and nearly $3.5 billion in the first half. This first half performance is up over $100 million year-to-year and keeps us on track to our full year expectation. Growth is driven by the cash from our profit performance, working capital efficiencies and lower payments for structural actions. This was mitigated by higher performance-based compensation payments given last year's strong results and higher cash taxes.

轉向自由現金流。我們本季度創造了 21 億美元的收入，上半年創造了近 35 億美元的收入。上半年業績同比增長超過 1 億美元，使我們能夠實現全年預期。增長是由我們的利潤表現、營運資本效率和結構性行動的較低支付帶來的現金推動的。鑑於去年的強勁業績和更高的現金稅，更高的基於績效的薪酬支付緩解了這一問題。

In terms of cash usage, through the first half, we returned $3 billion to shareholders in the form of dividends and spent about $350 million to acquire 6 companies. Later this year, we expect to close the acquisition of Apptio, which complements and advances our IT automation capabilities.

在現金使用方面，上半年我們以股息的形式向股東返還了30億美元，並花費了約3.5億美元收購了6家公司。今年晚些時候，我們預計將完成對 Apptio 的收購，這將補充並提升我們的 IT 自動化能力。

From a balance sheet perspective, we continue to have very strong liquidity position with over $16 billion of cash. That's down over $1 billion since March and up $7.5 billion since December. Our debt balance at the end of the second quarter was over $57 billion, which is up $6.5 billion from year-end. You'll recall earlier in the year, we were opportunistic in accessing the debt market and issued debt to prudently get ahead of 2023 and 2024 maturities as well as capital allocation priorities.

從資產負債表的角度來看，我們仍然擁有非常強勁的流動性頭寸，現金超過 160 億美元。自 3 月份以來，這一數字減少了超過 10 億美元，自 12 月份以來，這一數字增加了 75 億美元。第二季度末我們的債務餘額超過 570 億美元，比年底增加 65 億美元。您可能還記得，今年早些時候，我們在進入債務市場並發行債務方面採取了機會主義態度，以審慎地提前於 2023 年和 2024 年到期以及資本配置優先事項。

Turning to the segments. Software revenue growth accelerated to 8% this quarter. Both hybrid platform and solutions and transaction processing grew as clients leverage our hybrid cloud and AI platform capabilities. This performance again reflects growth across both our recurring revenue base, which is about 80% of annual software revenue as well as transactional revenue.

轉向細分市場。本季度軟件收入增長加速至 8%。隨著客戶利用我們的混合雲和人工智能平台功能，混合平台和解決方案以及交易處理都在增長。這一業績再次反映了我們經常性收入基礎的增長，約佔年度軟件收入和交易收入的 80%。

In Hybrid Platform & Solutions, revenue was up 7%, fueled by growth in Red Hat, Data & AI and automation. Our Hybrid Platform & Solutions ARR is now over $13.6 billion and up 7%, reflecting the importance of our strategic offerings with our clients.

在混合平台和解決方案方面，在紅帽、數據和人工智能以及自動化業務增長的推動下，收入增長了 7%。我們的混合平台和解決方案的 ARR 目前已超過 136 億美元，增長了 7%，反映了我們為客戶提供的戰略產品的重要性。

Red Hat revenue grew 11%. OpenShift, our leading hybrid cloud platform, grew more than 30% in the quarter and now has $1.1 billion in annual recurring revenue. Ansible also delivered double-digit growth. and gained market share this quarter.

紅帽收入增長 11%。我們領先的混合雲平台 OpenShift 在本季度增長了 30% 以上，目前年度經常性收入為 11 億美元。 Ansible 也實現了兩位數的增長。並在本季度獲得了市場份額。

In automation, revenue was up 2%, reflecting growth across integration, application servers and business automation as clients drive enhanced business value through productivity and performance optimization.

在自動化領域，收入增長了 2%，反映了隨著客戶通過生產力和性能優化提高業務價值，集成、應用服務器和業務自動化領域的增長。

Data & and AI revenue was up 11%. The broad-based growth included areas like data management and business analytics, giving enterprise needs for data visualization, organization, analysis and insights as the underpinnings for AI workloads.

數據與人工智能收入增長 11%。廣泛的增長包括數據管理和業務分析等領域，滿足了企業對數據可視化、組織、分析和洞察的需求，作為人工智能工作負載的基礎。

Security revenue declined 1%. We delivered growth in security software driven by data security with Guardium Insights. This was more than offset by declines in security services this quarter.

安全收入下降 1%。我們通過 Guardium Insights 實現了由數據安全驅動的安全軟件的增長。這被本季度安全服務的下降所抵消。

In transaction processing, revenue grew 10% off of an easier compare last year. The increase in z Systems installed capacity over the last couple of cycles and strong software renewal rates reflect the importance of z Systems platform in a hybrid cloud environment. These dynamics contributed to both recurring and transactional software revenue opportunity again this quarter. Putting this together with price increases, we had strong performance in transaction processing.

在交易處理方面，收入比去年增長了 10%。 z Systems 安裝容量在過去幾個週期中的增長和強勁的軟件更新率反映了 z Systems 平台在混合雲環境中的重要性。這些動態再次為本季度帶來了經常性和交易性軟件收入機會。加上價格上漲，我們在交易處理方面表現強勁。

Moving to profit for Software segment. Our pretax margin was up 0.5 point while absorbing over 1 point of impact from currency. We delivered operating leverage given both the revenue scale and mix this quarter.

軟件部門轉向盈利。我們的稅前利潤率上升了 0.5 個百分點，同時吸收了超過 1 個百分點的貨幣影響。考慮到本季度的收入規模和組合，我們提供了運營槓桿。

Consulting revenue was up 6%. In April, we discussed that we were seeing sustained demand for larger transformations that delivered meaningful ROI. At the same time, other projects considered to be more discretionary were being delayed predominantly in the United States. The second quarter client buying behavior played out much in the same way.

諮詢收入增長 6%。四月份，我們討論過，我們看到了對更大的轉型的持續需求，這些轉型可以帶來有意義的投資回報率。與此同時，其他被認為更具自由裁量權的項目主要在美國被推遲。第二季度客戶購買行為的表現大致相同。

Our signings were solid, up over 20%, with double-digit growth in both large and small engagements. This takes our book-to-bill ratio up to 1.1 over the last 12 months. We addressed continued demand for technology-driven transformations as clients prioritize projects that drive cost savings and increase productivity.

我們的簽約量穩定增長，增幅超過 20%，大型和小型簽約均實現兩位數增長。這使得我們的訂單出貨比在過去 12 個月內達到了 1.1。隨著客戶優先考慮能夠節省成本和提高生產力的項目，我們滿足了對技術驅動轉型的持續需求。

Turning to our lines of business in consulting. Growth across our service offerings was broad based. Business transformation grew 5% driven by data and technology transformations, including AI and analytics-focused projects. Digital transformations continue to be underpinned by clients embracing a hybrid cloud strategy. Technology consulting grew 5%, and application operations grew 8% as we again saw strength in cloud-based application services across development, modernization and management.

轉向我們的諮詢業務。我們的服務產品實現了廣泛的增長。在數據和技術轉型（包括以人工智能和分析為重點的項目）的推動下，業務轉型增長了 5%。採用混合雲戰略的客戶繼續支持數字化轉型。技術諮詢增長了 5%，應用程序運營增長了 8%，因為我們再次看到了基於雲的應用程序服務在開發、現代化和管理方面的優勢。

Contributing to growth across the business, our strategic partnerships grew signings and revenue double digits with solid performance from partnerships with AWS and Azure. Our Red Hat practice also grew signings and revenue double digits. We have an annualized revenue run rate in excess of $2 billion.

我們的戰略合作夥伴關係通過與 AWS 和 Azure 的合作夥伴關係實現了穩健的業績，簽約數量和收入實現了兩位數增長，為整個業務的增長做出了貢獻。我們的紅帽業務也實現了兩位數的簽約和收入增長。我們的年收入運行率超過 20 億美元。

Moving to consulting profit. We expanded both gross and pretax margins 180 basis points. Our margin expansion is a reflection of the pricing and productivity actions we've taken, more than offsetting the increased labor cost and investments.

轉向諮詢利潤。我們將毛利率和稅前利潤率提高了 180 個基點。我們的利潤率擴張反映了我們採取的定價和生產力行動，不僅僅是抵消了勞動力成本和投資的增加。

Turning to the Infrastructure segment. Revenue was down 14%, reflecting product cycle dynamics. This impacted both hybrid infrastructure and infrastructure support. Within hybrid infrastructure, z Systems revenue declined 30%. We've wrapped on strong revenue performance last year, up 77% when z16 launched in a seasonally strong quarter. Through the first 5 quarters of availability, revenue was well ahead of prior cycles.

轉向基礎設施部分。收入下降 14%，反映了產品週期動態。這影響了混合基礎設施和基礎設施支持。在混合基礎設施中，z Systems 收入下降了 30%。去年，我們的收入表現強勁，當 z16 在季節性強勁的季度推出時，我們的收入增長了 77%。在上市前 5 個季度，收入遠遠領先於之前的周期。

z16 brings the power of embedded AI at scale, cyber resilient security and cloud-native development for hybrid cloud to our clients. For example, clients are adopting IBM's z16 and the Telum processor as the foundation for real-time AI insights across significant volumes of data.

z16 為我們的客戶帶來了大規模嵌入式人工智能、網絡彈性安全性和混合云云原生開發的強大功能。例如，客戶正在採用 IBM 的 z16 和 Telum 處理器作為跨大量數據進行實時 AI 洞察的基礎。

Distributed infrastructure revenue was down 6%. Let me remind you, we're wrapping on strong growth last year, up 17%, driven by strength in storage and Power10 high-end systems.

分佈式基礎設施收入下降 6%。讓我提醒您，在存儲和 Power10 高端系統實力的推動下，我們去年實現了 17% 的強勁增長。

Moving to Infrastructure profit. We expanded gross margins 200 basis points. While pretax margin was down 40 basis points, including about 1 point of impact from currency.

轉向基礎設施利潤。我們將毛利率提高了 200 個基點。而稅前利潤率則下降了 40 個基點，其中包括約 1 個基點的匯率影響。

Now that I've gone through the segment results, let me bring it back up to the IBM level to wrap up. We feel good about our first half performance with momentum in our growth vectors of software and consulting and a solid recurring revenue base driven by our high-value software. We're delivering strong gross margin performance with growth across our segments driven by portfolio mix and productivity. Our overall year-to-year profit dynamics, as expected, reflect the impact of last year's divestiture.

現在我已經查看了細分結果，讓我將其帶回 IBM 級別進行總結。我們對上半年的業績感到滿意，因為我們的軟件和諮詢增長勢頭強勁，而且我們的高價值軟件推動了堅實的經常性收入基礎。在投資組合組合和生產力的推動下，我們的各個部門都實現了強勁的毛利率表現。正如預期的那樣，我們的整體年度利潤動態反映了去年資產剝離的影響。

As we look to the full year of 2023, we're holding our view of the year on our 2 primary metrics: revenue growth and free cash flow. We see constant currency revenue growth of 3% to 5%. And we expect free cash flow of about $10.5 billion, which I'll remind you is up over $1 billion year-to-year.

在展望 2023 年全年時，我們對 2023 年的兩個主要指標持樂觀態度：收入增長和自由現金流。我們預計貨幣收入將持續增長 3% 至 5%。我們預計自由現金流約為 105 億美元，我要提醒您的是，該數字同比增長超過 10 億美元。

Let me comment on a few items within these full year expectations. We expect IBM's operating pretax margin to expand by about 0.5 point year-to-year driven by a combination of product mix and progress on our productivity initiatives. That's consistent with our view 90 days ago and in line with our model.

讓我評論一下全年預期中的一些項目。我們預計，在產品組合和生產力計劃進展的共同推動下，IBM 的稅前營業利潤率將同比增長約 0.5 個百分點。這與我們 90 天前的觀點一致，也符合我們的模型。

We're also maintaining our view of our tax rate for the year, which is in the mid- to high teens range. And then finally, while there has been some volatility in currency rates over the last couple of weeks, at current spot rates, currency translation is still expected to be fairly neutral to our revenue growth for the year. I'll remind you that our profit and cash dynamics this year are impacted by the wrap on last year's hedging gains, which is about 1 point of headwind to our pretax margin expansion.

我們還維持對今年稅率的看法，即在中高青少年範圍內。最後，雖然過去幾週匯率出現了一些波動，但按照當前的即期匯率，預計貨幣換算對我們今年的收入增長仍然相當中性。我要提醒您的是，我們今年的利潤和現金動態受到去年對沖收益的影響，這對我們的稅前利潤率擴張造成了約 1 個百分點的阻力。

In terms of segment dynamics, in Software, we had a good first half and now expect revenue growth at the high end of Software's mid-single-digit model. This is all in including acquisitions. Our revenue growth drives operating leverage, with software pretax margin expected to expand 1.5 points to 2 points year-to-year.

就細分市場動態而言，在軟件領域，我們上半年表現良好，現在預計收入增長將達到軟件中個位數模型的高端。這一切都包括收購。我們的收入增長推動了運營槓桿，軟件稅前利潤率預計將同比擴大 1.5 個百分點至 2 個百分點。

In consulting, we've repositioned our business to address today's clients' needs. What we saw in the second quarter didn't change our view of the year. We continue to expect consulting revenue growth in the range of 6% to 8% and to expand consulting pretax margin by at least 1 point.

在諮詢方面，我們重新定位了我們的業務，以滿足當今客戶的需求。我們在第二季度看到的情況並沒有改變我們對今年的看法。我們繼續預計諮詢收入增長在 6% 至 8% 範圍內，並將諮詢稅前利潤率擴大至少 1 個百分點。

And then for Infrastructure, as I described in the past, revenue is roughly flat over the midterm model horizon, with performance in any year reflecting product cycle dynamics. In the second quarter, we wrapped on the z16 introduction in a seasonally strong quarter. For the year, as you expect, 2023 infrastructure revenue will decline, impacting IBM's overall revenue growth by over 1 point. We continue to expect pretax margin in the low teens.

然後，對於基礎設施，正如我過去所描述的，在中期模型範圍內，收入大致持平，任何一年的業績都反映了產品週期動態。在第二季度，我們在季節性強勁的季度推出了 z16。正如您所預期的那樣，2023 年基礎設施收入將下降，影響 IBM 整體收入增長超過 1 個百分點。我們繼續預計稅前利潤率將在十幾歲以下。

Our expectations for 2023 reflect a higher growth, higher value business with strong cash generation, what we have referred to as today's IBM. The analyst estimates also reflect these dynamics. And as we look at the third quarter, the average of analyst estimates look reasonable.

我們對 2023 年的預期反映了更高的增長、更高的價值和強勁的現金生成能力，即我們今天所說的 IBM。分析師的估計也反映了這些動態。當我們觀察第三季度時，分析師的平均預期看起來很合理。

In closing, we are pleased with our first half performance, and it keeps us on track to deliver revenue growth, expand margin and grow free cash flow for the year. I'm happy to provide more color on the quarter and our expectations in the Q&A.

最後，我們對上半年的業績感到滿意，這使我們能夠在今年實現收入增長、擴大利潤率和增加自由現金流。我很高興在問答中提供有關本季度的更多信息以及我們的期望。

Patricia, let's get started.

帕特里夏，我們開始吧。

Thank you, Jim. Before we begin the Q&A, I'd like to mention a couple of items. First, supplemental information is provided at the end of the presentation. And then second, (Operator Instructions) Operator, let's please open it up for questions.

謝謝你，吉姆。在開始問答之前，我想提幾件事。首先，在演示結束時提供補充信息。第二，（操作員說明）操作員，請打開它提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from Wamsi Mohan with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Wamsi Mohan。

Arvind, you noted some initial traction around AI, and I was wondering -- you guys have made a lot of major announcements around AI. Wondering if you can share some thoughts on AI monetization in the short to medium term. And any quantification, if possible, either in terms of dollars or growth rates or '23, '24 would be helpful.

Arvind，您注意到了圍繞人工智能的一些最初的吸引力，我想知道——你們已經圍繞人工智能發布了很多重大公告。想知道您是否可以分享一些關於中短期人工智能貨幣化的想法。如果可能的話，任何量化，無論是美元、增長率還是“23、24”都會有所幫助。

And if I could, Jim, you saw very strong transaction processing growth. You noted a few different items there. I was wondering if you could talk about how much of that is structural versus cyclical. And if transaction processing is growing this fast, does that drive upside to software revenue for the year? Or are there other areas that are offsetting? And if you could just reiterate if Red Hat, do you still expect that to grow 11% to 13%?

如果可以的話，吉姆，您會看到非常強勁的交易處理增長。您在那裡註意到了一些不同的項目。我想知道您是否可以談談其中有多少是結構性的與週期性的。如果交易處理增長如此之快，這是否會推動今年軟件收入的增長？或者還有其他領域可以抵消嗎？如果您能重申一下紅帽的話，您是否仍預計增長 11% 至 13%？

Wamsi, so thank you for the question. And as you noted, I am very excited by our progress on AI and what it's going to do for our clients most importantly and then return, of course, for us as we monetize it.

萬西，謝謝你的提問。正如您所指出的，我對我們在人工智能方面取得的進展以及它將為我們的客戶做的最重要的事情感到非常興奮，當然，當我們將其貨幣化時，它也會為我們帶來回報。

Our monetization is largely going to be through consulting and software, and I'll explain that. Infrastructure will benefit, but I would not call that a direct monetization route.

我們的貨幣化主要通過諮詢和軟件來實現，我將對此進行解釋。基礎設施將受益，但我不會稱之為直接貨幣化途徑。

So let me start with consulting. If you noticed, I talked about and Jim talked about what we have done with hybrid cloud, aka OpenShift in consulting. Where we began with this journey in 2019, our book of business was, to be precise and to round it out, 0. In the first year, we signed about $1 billion of business. And at this point, we have, inception to date, signed $9 billion with an annual run rate of $2 billion in consulting. I would tell you and expect that we will play out AI in a similar way. I hesitate to call it anything else until we get 6 months or so down the road, in which case then, we'll have more knowledge.

那麼讓我從諮詢開始吧。如果您注意到的話，我和 Jim 談到了我們在混合雲（又名諮詢領域的 OpenShift）方面所做的事情。 2019 年，我們開始這一旅程時，準確地說，我們的業務賬簿是 0。第一年，我們簽署了約 10 億美元的業務。截至目前，我們自成立以來已簽署了 90 億美元的諮詢服務，年運營額為 20 億美元。我會告訴你並期望我們將以類似的方式發揮人工智能的作用。我猶豫是否要稱呼它為其他名稱，直到 6 個月左右的時間，這樣我們就會有更多的知識。

Now on the software side, we are very, very excited by the initial reaction to the watsonx platform. The number of projects we have going on, the client interest, it really is something which we are very, very pleased by. So what's the model to think of it on? As I think about how OpenShift, which was a Red Hat product, came in, in 2019, it grew, literally doubled each year for the first 4 years. And at this point, the revenue is about 10x of what it was when it came in. And right now, we have quantified it at $1.1 billion on an annualized run rate basis. So that gives you a sense of the excitement we have around these projects, these technologies and what it could do for us as we begin to go forward.

現在在軟件方面，我們對 watsonx 平台的最初反應感到非常非常興奮。我們正在進行的項目數量、客戶的興趣，這確實是我們非常非常高興的事情。那麼考慮這個問題的模型是什麼？當我想到 OpenShift（紅帽產品）是如何在 2019 年進入市場時，它不斷增長，在前 4 年裡每年都增長一倍。此時，收入約為剛開始時的 10 倍。現在，我們按年化運行率將其量化為 11 億美元。因此，這讓您感受到我們對這些項目、這些技術以及隨著我們開始前進它們可以為我們做些什麼而感到興奮。

Now third and most important, but I don't want to quantify it, is the fact that AI will infuse in models every single product we have, whether it's sustainability, whether it's our database products, whether it's our consulting projects, whether it's inside the mainframe with the Telum, but I'm not including those in those first 2 categories.

現在第三個也是最重要的，但我不想量化它，人工智能將融入我們擁有的每一個產品的模型中，無論是可持續性，無論是我們的數據庫產品，無論是我們的諮詢項目，無論是內部Telum 的大型機，但我不將它們包括在前兩類中。

So with that, let me give it to Jim for the TPS question.

那麼，讓我將 TPS 問題交給 Jim。

Thanks, Arvind; and thanks, Wamsi, for the question. We're obviously very pleased with our overall software performance here in the second quarter, accelerating to 8% at constant currency. It was pretty pervasive, both acceleration in the hybrid platform and solution and, to your question, transaction processing. But you get underneath the performance, double digit in Red Hat, double digit in Data & AI and double digit in our high-value transaction processing business overall, which, by the way, gives us the confidence exiting first half to raise our guidance on software overall to the high end of our mid-single-digit model.

謝謝，阿溫德；謝謝瓦姆西提出的問題。顯然，我們對第二季度的整體軟件性能感到非常滿意，按固定匯率計算，增速達到 8%。它非常普遍，既包括混合平台和解決方案的加速，也包括交易處理。但你會發現紅帽的業績是兩位數，數據和人工智能是兩位數，我們的高價值交易處理業務整體是兩位數，這讓我們有信心在上半年結束時提高我們的指導軟件總體上達到了我們中個位數型號的高端。

Now to your question about transaction processing, we constantly talk about, on these calls, the value of TP in our business model. It's a value vector, 30% of software. It's a tremendous source of profit and cash that gives us financial flexibility to reinvest for growth overall. It also provides a tremendous incumbency position for our IBM multiplier effect.

現在，關於您關於交易處理的問題，我們在這些電話會議中不斷討論 TP 在我們的商業模式中的價值。它是一個價值向量，佔軟件的 30%。這是利潤和現金的巨大來源，使我們能夠靈活地進行再投資以實現整體增長。它還為我們的 IBM 乘數效應提供了巨大的現有地位。

We entered the year, Arvind and I talked about, we saw the inflection shift in TP in '23, and that was predicated on the successful mainframe programs that we've had over the last 2. By the way, the last program, we're up 2x our installed MIPS capacity. So we have a much more extended opportunity base to go get those strong renewal rates overall. But we said from a model perspective, we saw the inflection shift versus being down mid-single digit, which was tremendous strain on us. We saw low single-digit growth.

我們進入了這一年，Arvind 和我談到，我們在 23 年看到了 TP 的拐點轉變，這是基於我們過去 2 年成功的大型機計劃。順便說一句，最後一個計劃，我們我們已安裝的 MIPS 容量增加了 2 倍。因此，我們有更廣泛的機會基礎來獲得強勁的整體續訂率。但我們從模型的角度來看，我們看到了拐點的轉變，而不是下降到中個位數，這對我們來說是巨大的壓力。我們看到了低個位數的增長。

Now on top of that, just given the highly inflationary environment, we talked about we were going to get disproportional price in '23. Call that, I don't know, 2, 3, 4 points, somewhere in that ballpark.

現在最重要的是，考慮到高度通貨膨脹的環境，我們談到我們將在 23 年獲得不成比例的價格。我不知道，可以稱之為 2、3、4 分，大概在這個範圍內。

So when you look at our first half performance, our first half, we're up 8%. By the way, our first half last year was relatively flat. It's our easier compare. So we have to acknowledge it's easier compare. We're going to enter a different -- more difficult compare in the second half. But that 8 points of growth overall, I would say, once you normalize for the easier compare, we can grow low single digit on a sustainable basis. This year, just given the differentiated price position, we said we'd grow mid-single digit, and we feel very confident exiting some first half.

所以當你看看我們上半年的表現時，我們的上半年增長了 8%。順便說一句，我們去年上半年相對平穩。這是我們更容易比較的。所以我們必須承認它更容易比較。我們將在下半場進入一個不同的——更困難的比較。但我想說的是，一旦你為了更容易比較而正常化，那麼總體上 8 個百分點的增長，我們就可以在可持續的基礎上實現低個位數的增長。今年，鑑於差異化的價格定位，我們表示我們將實現中個位數增長，並且我們對退出上半年感到非常有信心。

Next question is from Amit Daryanani with Evercore.

下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Amit Daryanani。

I guess I was hoping you'd spend a bit of time on the consulting side, and your growth did decelerate there a little bit from 8% Q1 to 6%. I'd love to understand how did that 6% growth in consulting in Q2 stack up versus your internal expectation. And then given the decelerations are in June, maybe just talk about what gives you confidence that the growth rate holds up in that 6% to 8% range for the back half of the year when some of your peers have actually talked about that market decelerating a bit.

我想我希望你能花一些時間在諮詢方面，而你的增長確實從第一季度的 8% 下降到 6%。我很想了解第二季度諮詢業務 6% 的增長與您的內部預期相比如何。然後考慮到 6 月份的減速，也許只是談談是什麼讓你有信心在今年下半年增長率保持在 6% 到 8% 的範圍內，而你的一些同行實際上已經談到了市場減速一點點。

Thanks, Amit. I'll take this one. We're actually pleased with our consulting performance. Remember, you dialed back 90 days ago, and we saw a real change in buying behavior, particularly in the United States, around discretionary project-based activity that slowed down in the month of March, and that impacted our backlog realization in the quarter. But we actually posted relatively strong growth, 8% in the first quarter. We had mid-teens, if I remember correctly, signings growth.

謝謝，阿米特。我要這個。事實上，我們對我們的諮詢表現感到滿意。請記住，您在 90 天前回撥，我們看到購買行為發生了真正的變化，特別是在美國，基於可自由支配的項目的活動在 3 月份放緩，這影響了我們在本季度的積壓實現。但我們實際上實現了相對強勁的增長，第一季度增長了 8%。如果我沒記錯的話，我們的簽約增長了十幾歲。

When we look at second quarter, we have not seen any substantive change in client buying behavior at all. So I think that's actually a positive indicator. We didn't see it permeate across other markets around the world. Clients like us, internally, I'm focused every single day on getting productivity, cost, quick payback, ROI, and our clients are looking at that. But on top of that 6% growth here in the second quarter, I think it should be noted, we delivered very strong signings growth that was pervasive, both large deals, small deal. So we see continued momentum where client demand is there, where there's a value to clients overall and how we've differentiated ourselves. And I would argue we're gaining share.

當我們觀察第二季度時，我們沒有看到客戶購買行為有任何實質性變化。所以我認為這實際上是一個積極的指標。我們沒有看到它滲透到世界各地的其他市場。像我們這樣的客戶，在內部，我每天都專注於提高生產力、成本、快速回報、投資回報率，而我們的客戶正在關注這一點。但除了第二季度 6% 的增長之外，我認為應該指出的是，我們普遍實現了非常強勁的簽約增長，無論是大交易還是小交易。因此，我們看到客戶需求的存在、對客戶整體的價值以及我們如何使自己脫穎而出的持續勢頭。我認為我們正在獲得份額。

We grew 24% in signings in the second quarter, and that was driven by areas that you would quite expect around digital transformation, application modernization, data and technology. AI, by the way, grew 50% signings in the first quarter. So to Arvind's opening [valley] about AI and how we're going to monetize, this is early green shoots on some of these things. So we exited the quarter with about [1.11] book to bill. By the way, that's the strongest book to bill we've had in quite some time.

第二季度我們的簽約量增長了 24%，這是由數字化轉型、應用程序現代化、數據和技術等領域所推動的。順便說一句，AI 第一季度的簽約量增長了 50%。因此，對於 Arvind 關於人工智能以及我們將如何貨幣化的開場白來說，這是其中一些事情的早期萌芽。因此，我們以大約 [1.11] 的訂單到帳單結束了本季度。順便說一句，這是我們相當長一段時間以來最值得買的書。

Now that positions us well for the second half. We got very good strategic partnership velocity. We got very good Red Hat book of business, growing strong double digit. But we're going to continue to monitor this client buying behavior around backlog realization. That's the critical piece. And by the way, our erosion, we have not seen any change or inflection shift in erosion. So we're positioned well for the second half, and that gave us confidence in our 6% to 8% maintaining guidance for the year.

現在我們已經為下半場做好了準備。我們建立了非常好的戰略合作夥伴關係。我們獲得了非常好的紅帽業務，以兩位數的強勁增長。但我們將繼續圍繞積壓訂單的實現來監控客戶的購買行為。這是關鍵部分。順便說一下，我們的侵蝕，我們沒有看到侵蝕發生任何變化或拐點。因此，我們對下半年的定位良好，這讓我們對維持今年 6% 至 8% 的指導值充滿信心。

Next is Toni Sacconaghi with Bernstein.

接下來是托尼·薩科納吉和伯恩斯坦。

Yes. I just wanted to clarify. When you talked about feeling comfortable with Q3 estimates, was that both the revenue and an EPS statement? And then my question is, on software, I think you were looking for 200 basis point margin improvement for the year, and now you're saying 150 to 200. Can you speak to that?

是的。我只是想澄清一下。當您談到對第三季度的估計感到滿意時，這既是收入也是每股收益報表？然後我的問題是，在軟件方面，我認為您希望今年的利潤率提高 200 個基點，而現在您說是 150 到 200 個基點。您能對此談談嗎？

And also, when we look at the improved software revenue growth, is that just improvement in transaction processing because you were way above your forecast in Apptio? Or is there something beyond that? And related to that, are you modeling any substantive revenue from AI in consulting or in software this year? And why would that not impact your outlook if you were?

而且，當我們看到軟件收入增長的改善時，這是否只是交易處理方面的改善，因為您的 Apptio 遠遠超出了您的預測？或者還有其他的東西嗎？與此相關的是，您今年是否對人工智能在諮詢或軟件方面的實質性收入進行了建模？如果是的話，為什麼這不會影響你的前景呢？

Toni, thank you. I'll take the first 2 or 3 or 4 of your questions, and then I think Arvind can talk about the AI piece overall. But when you look at our software margin overall, first of all, we're taking our full year guidance up on revenue to the high end of our model, so that's about 1 point raise year-over-year. And by the way, that's all in, as we stated in prepared remarks, including how we're very excited about the Apptio acquisition overall.

托尼，謝謝你。我將回答你的前 2、3 或 4 個問題，然後我認為 Arvind 可以整體談談人工智能部分。但當你從整體上看我們的軟件利潤率時，首先，我們將全年收入指引提高到模型的高端，因此同比提高了約 1 個百分點。順便說一句，正如我們在準備好的評論中所說，這就是全部內容，包括我們對 Apptio 整體收購感到非常興奮。

But that raise in guidance, I think, is a reflection of the pervasive performance we've seen in the first half that we feel pretty confident in. We entered -- let's dial back. We entered the year. We said mid-single digit. We were coming off a peak ELA. We said we get 5 to 6 points of growth out of annuity, and we would have about a 1 point headwind on transactional. We had a pretty solid first quarter delivering above our model. We continued and accelerated that in the second quarter. And by the way, it's both transaction processing, hybrid platform and solution overall.

但我認為，指引的提高反映了我們在上半年看到的普遍表現，我們對此非常有信心。我們進入了——讓我們回撥一下。我們進入了這一年。我們說的是中個位數。我們正處於 ELA 高峰期。我們說我們可以從年金中獲得 5 到 6 個百分點的增長，而交易方面我們將面臨大約 1 個百分點的阻力。我們第一季度的業績非常穩定，超出了我們的模型。我們在第二季度繼續並加速了這一進程。順便說一句，它既是事務處理、混合平台又是整體解決方案。

So when you look at it, we see, one, yes, Apptio, very excited. It's a high-growth company, high recurring revenue and a highly profitable company. And we expect, just given normal customary regulations of closing, we probably assume sometime early fourth quarter. So that's about 0.5 point in that raise.

所以當你看它時，我們會看到，一個，是的，Apptio，非常興奮。這是一家高增長的公司，高經常性收入和高利潤的公司。我們預計，只要考慮到關閉的正常慣例，我們可能會假設第四季度初的某個時間。所以加薪幅度約為 0.5 個百分點。

The remaining 0.5 point is going to be solid mid-single-digit growth on TP, to my answer to Amit. And then third is we actually exited our first half with very solid transactional growth, albeit we do understand we're going to wrap in fourth quarter on a very strong ELA cycle. But the first half, we're seeing very strong clothing upsell that's in the mid-20% year-over-year on those expiring ELAs through the first half.

根據我對阿米特的回答，剩下的 0.5 個百分點將是 TP 中個位數的穩定增長。第三，我們實際上以非常穩健的交易增長結束了上半年，儘管我們確實知道我們將在第四季度以非常強勁的 ELA 週期結束。但上半年，我們看到上半年即將到期的 ELA 服裝銷量增長非常強勁，同比增長 20%。

So I think it's all 3 pieces overall. I think I covered both the revenue piece on the margin, Toni. That is really just the dilution effect in the first quarter of Apptio. So we called about 200 basis points for the year. Now we're putting Apptio in. We're somewhere between 150 basis points and 200 basis points. But I'll remind you, we expect a very quick accretive business as we go forward just given they're profitable overall.

所以我認為這總共是 3 部分。我想我已經涵蓋了利潤中的兩個收入部分，托尼。這實際上只是 Apptio 第一季度的稀釋效應。因此我們預計今年的利率大約為 200 個基點。現在我們將 Apptio 納入其中。我們的利率在 150 個基點到 200 個基點之間。但我要提醒您的是，考慮到它們總體上是盈利的，我們預計隨著我們的發展，業務會很快增長。

So I'll turn it over to Arvind on the AI.

所以我會把它交給 AI 上的 Arvind。

Yes. Thanks, Jim. So Toni, I'll comment quickly on the color on revenue from AI, both in software and consulting. So as I said, in consulting, we are expecting a number of projects to get signed. By the way, as Jim mentioned, some of that is getting baked in. And you're seeing that in the strong signings that we have in consulting in the second quarter with the over 20% growth in signings, and a lot of that was indeed Data & AI consulting projects.

是的。謝謝，吉姆。托尼，我將快速評論人工智能在軟件和諮詢方面的收入情況。正如我所說，在諮詢方面，我們預計會有許多項目簽署。順便說一句，正如吉姆提到的，其中一些已經融入其中。你可以在我們第二季度諮詢的強勁簽約中看到這一點，簽約數量增長了 20% 以上，其中很多是確實是數據和人工智能諮詢項目。

Ditto in software. I'd just note that we had double-digit growth in the Data & AI subsegment of software, and no doubt that some of that is colored by clients doing more around AI with us than they have historically. So we expect to see it. But I do want us to be sort of all in, all in with 2023, including the AI color. We see software at the high end of our model, and we see consulting in the range that Jim just laid out. So while we are very excited about it and we see a lot of traction on AI, it is included in the estimates that we just gave.

軟件方面也是如此。我只想指出，我們在軟件的數據和人工智能細分領域實現了兩位數的增長，毫無疑問，其中一些增長是由於客戶與我們一起在人工智能方面所做的工作比歷史上更多。所以我們期待看到它。但我確實希望我們全力以赴地迎接 2023 年，包括人工智能顏色。我們看到軟件處於我們模型的高端，我們看到吉姆剛剛列出的範圍內的諮詢。因此，雖然我們對此感到非常興奮，並且我們看到人工智能有很大的吸引力，但它已包含在我們剛剛給出的估計中。

Next question is from Shannon Cross with Credit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸銀行的 Shannon Cross。

Arvind, I'm wondering, can you talk -- and I know you haven't launched it globally, but I'm sure everybody is having conversations right now. What is the interest level and understanding of AI by geography? And how do you think that sort of plays out and rolls through?

Arvind，我想知道，你能談談嗎？我知道你還沒有在全球範圍內推出它，但我確信每個人現在都在進行對話。各地區對人工智能的興趣程度和理解程度如何？您認為這種情況會如何發展？

And then just as a follow-up to the commentary on Apptio. I wondered if you could talk a bit more about what were sort of the key drivers of that acquisition, what KPIs we should watch for. And then I'm also curious as to how the 450 billion of anonymized data that you're gaining with that, how do you think you'll leverage that within your foundational model?

然後作為 Apptio 評論的後續。我想知道您是否可以多談談這次收購的關鍵驅動因素是什麼，我們應該關注哪些關鍵績效指標。然後我也很好奇您將如何獲得 4500 億匿名數據，您認為您將如何在基礎模型中利用這些數據？

Thanks. Shannon, great questions. So when I look at AI by geography, at one sort of simple level, I would tell you that, over the last 6 months, the interest in AI spans across all markets, all industries. So it is a international phenomenon, not confined to the U.S.

謝謝。香農，好問題。因此，當我從地域角度審視人工智能時，從一種簡單的角度來看，我會告訴你，在過去 6 個月裡，人們對人工智能的興趣遍及所有市場、所有行業。因此，這是一個國際現象，不僅限於美國。

Now we've got to dig under it. Then if I look at the maturity of clients to actually have their enterprise ready to embrace AI to be able to interact with their clients, their employees, that does vary. I have to acknowledge it. The North American market is probably the most further ahead on this. I think Western Europe comes second, likely together with some of the more advanced and developed markets in South America. Following that then is Asia and all of what would be called the Global South. Japan has a strong interest, but they tend to be cautious on adopting technology, not necessarily in experimenting. In experimenting, they'll be pretty quick. And then it will go into South Asia, where always, I think technology adoption tends to lag by a year or 2 behind the West. So that gives you some sense of that.

現在我們必須在它下面挖掘。然後，如果我觀察客戶的成熟度，讓他們的企業真正準備好擁抱人工智能，以便能夠與客戶、員工互動，情況確實會有所不同。我必須承認這一點。北美市場可能在這方面走得最遠。我認為西歐位居第二，可能與南美洲一些更先進和發達的市場一起。接下來是亞洲和所有被稱為全球南方的地區。日本對此有濃厚的興趣，但他們在採用技術方面往往持謹慎態度，而不一定在試驗方面持謹慎態度。在實驗中，他們會很快。然後它將進入南亞，我認為那裡的技術採用往往落後西方一兩年。這讓你有一些感覺。

But that said, every government, every enterprise, every CEO, every CIO that I talk to wants to talk about AI, what it can do to their company, what should it be in their country. And all of the questions around sovereignty of models and data and privacy and not depending only on a few international players come into the conversation, and that's why we talk a lot about private models and models that can be left behind with the client because that is coming up more and more. And so that, I hope, gives you some color on how this is going to play out.

但話雖如此，我採訪過的每個政府、每個企業、每個首席執行官、每個首席信息官都想談論人工智能，它可以對他們的公司做什麼，它應該在他們的國家做什麼。所有關於模型、數據和隱私主權的問題，而不是僅僅依賴於少數國際參與者，都進入了討論，這就是為什麼我們大量談論私有模型和可以留給客戶的模型，因為這是越來越多。因此，我希望這能讓您了解這將如何發展。

Coming to the next part of your question on Apptio. Look, the key drivers of this acquisition are pretty straightforward. When we look at and talk to CIOs, CFOs, CEOs, they're all getting worried about their spend across the hybrid landscape. What do I spend on my first public cloud? What is it on my second? What is it on a SaaS property? What am I spending on my own data centers?

進入您關於 Apptio 的問題的下一部分。看，這次收購的關鍵驅動因素非常簡單。當我們觀察並與首席信息官、首席財務官、首席執行官交談時，他們都對自己在混合領域的支出感到擔憂。我在我的第一個公共雲上花了多少錢？我的第二個是什麼？ SaaS 資產是什麼？我在自己的數據中心上花了多少錢？

So to give people a virtual cockpit that really lets them span across this, not just in terms of the third-party spend but also the people and the process spend, is something they're all deeply, deeply interested in. And more than a few CEOs I've talked to said it really gives them a handle on what's going on and where the money is being spent. That, I think, is going to play in right away.

因此，為人們提供一個真正讓他們跨越這個問題的虛擬駕駛艙，不僅在第三方支出方面，而且在人員和流程支出方面，都是他們非常非常感興趣的事情。與我交談過的幾位首席執行官表示，這確實讓他們能夠了解正在發生的事情以及資金的用途。我認為，這一點很快就會發揮作用。

And you went right to the second value prop. With that spend data coming in across enterprises, the aggregate anonymized across the asset is the 450 billion. Now helping people benchmark, who does this better than you, who does this process better, who can do this with fewer total spend on a public or a private resource is interesting to people because benchmarks is a great way to guide oneself to better performance. We expect that, over time, we'll be able to monetize that into a large language or a foundation model and be able to give people even better predictors of where they can take their spend to. That's why we are so excited about it.

然後你就直接進入了第二個價值支柱。考慮到跨企業的支出數據，整個資產的匿名總額為 4500 億美元。現在幫助人們進行基準測試，誰比你做得更好，誰在這個過程中做得更好，誰可以用更少的公共或私人資源總支出來做到這一點，這對人們來說很有趣，因為基準測試是指導自己獲得更好績效的好方法。我們預計，隨著時間的推移，我們將能夠將其貨幣化為一種大型語言或基礎模型，並能夠為人們提供更好的預測，讓他們知道他們可以把錢花到哪裡。這就是為什麼我們對此如此興奮。

And I think the last part of your question was KPIs. Look, as we look to get Apptio much more international, while our footprint is, I'll call it, maybe 2/3, 1/3 outside the U.S. and in the U.S., they're almost inverse. So as we can put it into our distribution channel, that will be one big expansion as we go over the next year or so.

我認為你問題的最後一部分是 KPI。看，當我們希望讓 Apptio 更加國際化時，雖然我們的足跡（我稱之為）可能是美國以外地區的 2/3、1/3，而在美國境內，它們幾乎是相反的。因此，當我們可以將其納入我們的分銷渠道時，這將是我們在未來一年左右的時間裡的一次重大擴張。

The second one is we believe we have a great chance to also increase the penetration in our larger clients. So those are 2 big metrics, while we continue the success in the growth rate they've had using their own channels.

第二個是我們相信我們也有很大的機會提高在大客戶中的滲透率。因此，這是兩個重要指標，同時我們繼續利用他們自己的渠道取得成功的增長率。

Next is Erik Woodring with Morgan Stanley.

接下來是摩根士丹利的埃里克·伍德林。

Arvind, I'd love to dig into how you guys are thinking about M&A today. Obviously, you announced the Apptio deal a few weeks ago. That largely probably takes transformational M&A off the table, but you obviously still have some additional dry powder to make other acquisitions. So maybe if you could talk about what your appetite is for further M&A. Are you thinking about any other end markets or solutions you'd target now? Is valuation becoming more restrictive for you? Maybe said differently, just what's your message on M&A today post Apptio?

Arvind，我很想深入了解一下你們今天如何看待併購。顯然，您幾週前宣布了 Apptio 交易。這在很大程度上可能會導致轉型性併購被排除在外，但顯然你仍然有一些額外的干粉來進行其他收購。那麼也許您可以談談您對進一步併購的興趣。您是否正在考慮現在瞄準的任何其他終端市場或解決方案？估值對您來說是否變得更加限制？也許換句話說，您今天在 Apptio 上對併購有何看法？

Erik, so I might sound somewhat repetitive to those of you who have heard me over the past 2 years on this topic. So if I just sort of maybe just step back and say, taking unusual actions off the table for a moment, we had talked about a total FinFlex, let's call it, circa $20 billion over a 3-year period. That includes the ability to raise additional debt if we so desired. We've been spending circa about $3 billion a year for the last couple. So that tells you what's the capability and the flexibility that we have.

埃里克，對於那些在過去兩年裡聽過我談論這個話題的人來說，我可能聽起來有點重複。因此，如果我退後一步說，暫時不考慮採取不尋常的行動，我們已經討論了總體的 FinFlex，我們稱之為，在 3 年時間內大約 200 億美元。這包括如果我們願意的話，可以籌集額外債務。我們每年為最後一對夫婦花費約 30 億美元。這告訴您我們擁有什麼能力和靈活性。

You asked about valuations, and I hope my answer there tells you that we are always on the lookout, and I'll get to which categories because you asked that also. On valuations, I wouldn't call it so much that today is restrictive. What I could say is that while some of at least the reports I was reading were talking about valuations perhaps coming down in multiples over this year, it doesn't seem that that's the case. They've not gone up in any kind of tremendous way, but they have not come down.

您詢問了估值問題，我希望我的回答告訴您，我們一直在關注，並且我將了解哪些類別，因為您也問了這個問題。關於估值，我不會說今天是限制性的。我能說的是，雖然我讀到的至少一些報告都在談論今年估值可能會成倍下降，但情況似乎並非如此。他們並沒有以任何巨大的方式上升，但他們也沒有下降。

But the market is what the market is. So if we find properties that meet our criteria, and my criteria are pretty straightforward. Does it align with our strategy? And I'll call those areas out in a moment. Does it actually give us synergy, meaning can we, the combined entity, grow faster than the individuals could before, right, just to put in very financial terms. And if it is larger, it has to be accretive. And by larger, I mean it's not a tuck-in, meaning it's not a few hundred million. It's larger than that. Then it's got to get accretive, let's say, within 2 years at the latest. So if it meets those criteria, it's certainly an attractive proposition.

但市場就是市場。因此，如果我們找到符合我們標準的房產，我的標準非常簡單。它符合我們的戰略嗎？我稍後會指出這些領域。它是否真的給我們帶來了協同效應，這意味著我們作為合併後的實體能夠比以前的個體增長得更快，對吧，只是用非常財務的術語來說。如果它更大，它必須是增值的。我所說的更大，是指它不是塞進去的，也就是說它不是幾億。它比那個大。然後它必須得到增值，比如說，最遲在兩年內。因此，如果它滿足這些標準，這無疑是一個有吸引力的提議。

The areas we are in, we don't want to open up more strategic lanes, so to speak. Our areas are hybrid cloud, data and AI, automation, cyber and those consulting properties, which in turn help these. So that's kind of the lanes we're in. And if I look at the latest one, Apptio, I'd say it kind of hits 3 out of my 4. It hits hybrid cloud because it helps you deploy those. It is a big data and AI property because that's what they use. And it is automation because it takes out human labor cost from many of those processes. So it was actually a very, very good fit. And if any of you have suggestions for similar things, we are all ears, and you can certainly write to me.

可以這麼說，在我們所處的地區，我們不想開闢更多的戰略通道。我們的領域包括混合雲、數據和人工智能、自動化、網絡和那些反過來又為這些提供幫助的諮詢資產。這就是我們所處的方向。如果我看一下最新的 Apptio，我會說它滿足了我的 4 個中的 3 個。它滿足了混合雲的需求，因為它可以幫助您部署這些雲。這是大數據和人工智能的財產，因為這就是他們所使用的。它是自動化，因為它消除了許多流程中的人力成本。所以這實際上是一個非常非常合適的選擇。如果你們中的任何人對類似的事情有建議，我們都會洗耳恭聽，你們當然可以寫信給我。

Next is David Grossman with Stifel.

接下來是大衛·格羅斯曼和斯蒂菲爾。

Arvind, you spoke extensively about the favorable impact of pricing on the transaction processing portfolio. What have you learned from repricing that portfolio? And what other segments of your business could potentially benefit from similar actions?

Arvind，您廣泛談論了定價對交易處理組合的有利影響。您從重新定價該投資組合中學到了什麼？您的哪些其他業務部門可能會從類似的行動中受益？

And sorry to violate the one-question rule. But Jim, I just want a clarification. My recollection is that you had about $500 million of working capital tailwind factored into the free cash flow guide. I just want to make sure I got that right and that's the same.

很抱歉違反了“一問一答”的規則。但是吉姆，我只想澄清一下。我記得，自由現金流指南中計入了大約 5 億美元的營運資金順風因素。我只是想確保我做對了並且是一樣的。

So David, let me address the first part of your question on pricing. Look, I'd like to be careful. TP certainly benefited this year, but the biggest part of the benefit has been the mainframe cycle and the capacity and value that our clients see.

大衛，讓我回答你關於定價問題的第一部分。聽著，我想小心點。 TP 今年肯定受益匪淺，但最大的收益是大型機週期以及我們的客戶看到的容量和價值。

Yes. Was there a price increase? Given the labor inflation of 2022 and some ongoing in '23, given the strong dollar, effectively, there was pricing increase because of those factors, and that got taken well by the market because of the value they see on that. Would I expect to see similar pricing on TP and then I'll come to other parts of both consulting and software? I doubt, David, that it will be on the same range because, definitely, I think we would all agree, '22 had a high inflation. And because our costs go together with the labor and the dollar, I don't think it will be as strong as that, but I would expect maybe moderate increases based on just the pricing in TP.

是的。有沒有漲價？考慮到 2022 年的勞動力通脹以及 23 年持續的勞動力通脹，考慮到美元強勢，這些因素實際上導致了價格上漲，並且由於他們看到了這一點的價值而受到市場的歡迎。我是否希望在 TP 上看到類似的定價，然後我會轉向諮詢和軟件的其他部分？大衛，我懷疑它會在同一範圍內，因為我想我們肯定都會同意，22 年通貨膨脹率很高。由於我們的成本與勞動力和美元息息相關，我認為它不會那麼強勁，但我預計僅基於 TP 的定價，可能會適度增長。

Now consulting has also got both labor and inflation built in. And when we are seeing 6%, 8%, 10% increases in labor cost, it is, I think, appropriate to be able to pass some of that on, albeit with a lag. And you heard Jim talk in his prepared remarks about that, that is some of what is coming through in consulting. If there remains underlying labor inflation, I fully expect to be able to pass that on, again, with a bit of a lag to clients in consulting because, otherwise, that's not a healthy business to go around.

現在諮詢業也考慮到了勞動力和通貨膨脹。當我們看到勞動力成本增加 6%、8%、10% 時，我認為能夠將其中的一些成本轉嫁出去是適當的，儘管需要一定的成本。落後。你聽到吉姆在他準備好的評論中談到了這一點，這就是諮詢業正在經歷的一些事情。如果潛在的勞動力通脹仍然存在，我完全希望能夠再次將其傳遞給諮詢客戶，但會稍微滯後一些，因為否則，這不是一項健康的業務。

I think on the rest of software, except TP, I would expect that as labor inflation is there, those elements do come in effectively on pricing, renewal rates and so on. But I'd also say it's a competitive market, and you have to remain competitively priced to where the others are. So I would say it's in those 2: TP, consulting and then in other elements of the portfolio that pricing can play a role. By the way, our renewal rates are a very strong indication that these are portfolios that provide tremendous value to our clients, but we remain competitive on price.

我認為除了 TP 之外的其他軟件，我預計隨著勞動力通脹的存在，這些因素確實會有效地影響定價、續訂率等。但我也想說，這是一個競爭激烈的市場，你必須保持與其他市場相比具有競爭力的價格。所以我想說，定價可以在這兩個要素中發揮作用：轉讓定價、諮詢以及投資組合的其他要素。順便說一句，我們的續訂率非常有力地表明，這些投資組合為我們的客戶提供了巨大的價值，但我們在價格上仍然具有競爭力。

Yes. I mean our strategy overall has always been around pricing for value, right? But, David, just to put it in perspective, last year, we all dealt with a very -- and we're still dealing with a very highly inflationary environment that was somewhere anywhere, what, 3, 4, 5 points above history overall. That's kind of what we've been talking about, is a disproportional price in '23. You're not going to get that every single year, to Arvind's point, but I've always said pricing optimization is a direct correlation to the value and differentiation you offer to clients. You got to bring value to clients, or they're not going to accept the pricing. And we've been seeing good take-up with our mission-critical transaction processing. Arvind talked about the human capital-based business, the consulting, et cetera.

是的。我的意思是，我們的總體策略始終圍繞價值定價，對吧？但是，大衛，客觀地說，去年，我們都面臨著非常——而且我們仍然面臨著一個非常高的通脹環境，這種環境無處不在，比歷史總體高出 3、4、5 個百分點。 。這就是我們一直在談論的，23 年的價格不成比例。在阿溫德看來，你不會每年都得到這樣的結果，但我總是說定價優化與你為客戶提供的價值和差異化直接相關。您必須為客戶帶來價值，否則他們不會接受定價。我們看到我們的關鍵任務交易處理得到了良好的採用。阿溫德談到了基於人力資本的業務、諮詢等。

But just quickly to wrap on your second question, David. We said entering the year, remember, we came off of December, where we had a shortfall leaving much more on the balance sheet and collected in working capital. Working capital for the year is probably somewhere around $400 million to $500 million, like you said, and that's a tailwind coming off of last year. The remaining piece of the $1.2 billion of free cash flow growth year-over-year is the fundamental improvement in the operating discipline of our revenue and operating margin and cash from profit.

但請快速結束你的第二個問題，大衛。我們說過，進入今年，請記住，我們在 12 月結束時，我們出現了短缺，在資產負債表上留下了更多的資金並收集了營運資金。正如您所說，今年的營運資金可能約為 4 億至 5 億美元，這是去年的一個順風車。 12 億美元的自由現金流同比增長的剩餘部分是我們的收入、營業利潤率以及利潤現金等運營紀律的根本改善。

The next question is from Keith Bachman with BMO.

下一個問題來自 BMO 的 Keith Bachman。

Arvind, I wanted to direct this to you if I could. You've talked about the success you've had even at these early stages of signing new AI offerings in the consulting side of the business. How are you thinking about the supply side of the business? And what I mean by that is, as you look at over time, the software development process, as you talked about that in Orlando, is going to become much more efficient. And so if your consulting business is really a seat-based model that drives revenue and if those developers are increasing productivity by, I don't know, 30%, 40% because it's in AI, presumably, clients will want that back. So how do you think about the disinflationary forces associated with [C&AI] on delivery side of the model, which is, I think, separate and distinct from the opportunities associated with new demand sources?

Arvind，如果可以的話，我想把這個轉給你。您談到了即使在業務諮詢方面簽署新的人工智能產品的早期階段，您也取得了成功。您如何看待企業的供應方面？我的意思是，隨著時間的推移，正如您在奧蘭多談到的那樣，軟件開發過程將變得更加高效。因此，如果您的諮詢業務確實是一種基於席位的模式，可以推動收入，並且如果這些開發人員將生產力提高了（我不知道）30%、40%，因為它是人工智能，那麼客戶可能會希望收回這一點。那麼，您如何看待與模型交付方面的 [C&AI] 相關的通貨緊縮力量，我認為，這與新需求來源相關的機會是分開且不同的？

And Jim, if I just sneak one in to you, too, if you could talk about the total MIPS growth, not just the cycle growth but the total MIPS growth that you've recently experienced as we look out over the next couple of years, just trying to understand what the pricing increase, how that may -- how you may be able to use pricing on TP to leverage that MIPS rate. That's it for me.

Jim，如果我也偷偷地告訴你一個，如果你能談談總 MIPS 增長，不僅僅是周期增長，而是你最近經歷的總 MIPS 增長，因為我們展望未來幾年，只是想了解定價會增加多少，以及如何增加 - 您如何能夠使用 TP 定價來利用 MIPS 率。對我來說就是這樣。

So Keith, let me address the first part of your question. So if I look at it in the short term, let's just walk through. What does the consulting team actually do? They spend a lot of time upfront with the business side going through business processes, worrying about how to optimize business processes, cutting across silos, coming up with data architectures, which could help the business, helping the business decide how they're going to roll forward. All of that, to be candid, holds even in a world of gen AI, assuming it gets to perfection.

基思，讓我回答你問題的第一部分。因此，如果我從短期來看，我們就走一下吧。諮詢團隊實際上是做什麼的？他們花大量時間與業務方一起檢查業務流程，擔心如何優化業務流程，跨越孤島，提出可以幫助業務的數據架構，幫助業務決定如何向前滾動。坦率地說，即使在新一代人工智能的世界中，所有這些都成立，假設它變得完美。

Now let's get to the next level. A lot of what our teams do, and it is perhaps unique to us, we tend to work on much more mission-critical systems. We tend to work much more on things, which are fundamental to the business around financials, supply chain, cyber resilience and so on. Will gen AI and large language models have an impact? Absolutely. I would tell you that if I look over a 5- to 10-year horizon, I would agree with you that for that second part of consulting, not the first, I would agree and expect to see a 30% productivity.

現在讓我們進入下一個級別。我們的團隊所做的很多事情（這對我們來說可能是獨一無二的），我們傾向於在更加關鍵的任務系統上工作。我們傾向於更多地關注對財務、供應鏈、網絡彈性等業務至關重要的事情。一代人工智能和大型語言模型會產生影響嗎？絕對地。我想告訴你，如果我放眼 5 到 10 年，我會同意你的觀點，對於諮詢的第二部分，而不是第一部分，我會同意並期望看到 30% 的生產力。

Now I would tell you that in that time frame, I would believe that for IBM, that's an advantage, not a disadvantage. Why? Absolutely, it's disinflationary. But if we share that with the client, that means we can win more work. And the total labor pool we need to drive an amount of revenue is lower because there is obviously value in the technology that we are using, be it for test automation or code writing.

現在我可以告訴你，在那個時間範圍內，我相信對於 IBM 來說，這是一個優勢，而不是劣勢。為什麼？毫無疑問，這是通貨緊縮。但如果我們與客戶分享這一點，那就意味著我們可以贏得更多工作。我們需要推動一定收入的勞動力總量較低，因為我們正在使用的技術顯然具有價值，無論是測試自動化還是代碼編寫。

And maybe I can be a little bit boastful. I'll use that word, Keith, and talk about one example that we have. So we wrote a code assistant for Ansible, and it is part of our watsonx family. That code assistant for Ansible can help our Ansible developers, which is used as a -- I think it's the most widely adopted language for IT deployment, gets up to 60% more productive.

也許我可以有點自誇。我將使用基思這個詞，並討論我們擁有的一個例子。因此，我們為 Ansible 編寫了一個代碼助手，它是我們 watsonx 系列的一部分。 Ansible 的代碼助手可以幫助我們的 Ansible 開發人員（我認為它是 IT 部署中採用最廣泛的語言）將工作效率提高 60%。

Now that's one piece of it. IT deployment overall, I would then say, gets probably somewhere between 10% and 30% overall productivity. So that's why I think that 30% number is a good one to keep in mind. But to go across all the environments, COBOL, Java, Python, AI models, that's going to take a few years before our clients get the full confidence around that topic.

現在這只是其中的一部分。我想說，整體 IT 部署的整體生產力可能在 10% 到 30% 之間。這就是為什麼我認為 30% 的數字是值得牢記的一個好數字。但要涵蓋所有環境，COBOL、Java、Python、AI 模型，我們的客戶需要幾年時間才能對該主題充滿信心。

Keith, thanks for the question. On mainframe overall, pretty pleased given where we're at, GA plus 4 quarters in. So we wrapped on last year. Remember, we talked a lot last year. We came out with -- unlike the prior programs, we came out with a second quarter launch in a highly seasonal transactional quarter, and we grew 77% last year overall. And we wrapped on that this year. I think we printed down 30% here in the second quarter. But a 2-year CGR, so far, our 5 quarters in, it's most successful program and mainframe that we've had.

基思，謝謝你的提問。總體而言，就大型機而言，鑑於我們目前的狀況（GA 加上 4 個季度），我們非常滿意。所以我們去年就結束了。記住，去年我們談了很多。與之前的計劃不同，我們在一個季節性很強的交易季度推出了第二季度的計劃，去年我們的整體增長了 77%。今年我們就解決了這個問題。我認為我們第二季度的產量下降了 30%。但到目前為止，我們的 5 個季度的 2 年 CGR 是我們擁有的最成功的計劃和大型機。

Now why is it important? Yes, definitely, the value we deliver to clients, whether it's embedded AI, it's scale, cyber resilient security, cloud native development, but it's important internally to us because it's a platform that drives a multiplier effect, to your question, around transaction processing. And we've been talking about this 2x installed MIPS shift -- MIPS capacity over the last program. That was actually the z15 program over z14 because we're only 5 quarters into z16.

為什麼它很重要？是的，當然，我們為客戶提供的價值，無論是嵌入式人工智能、規模、網絡彈性安全、雲原生開發，但這對我們內部都很重要，因為它是一個圍繞交易處理推動乘數效應的平台。我們一直在談論這個 2 倍安裝的 MIPS 轉變——與上一個計劃相比的 MIPS 容量。這實際上是 z15 計劃相對於 z14 的計劃，因為我們距離 z16 只進行了 5 個季度。

But if you fast forward right now into z16, 5 quarters in, we're 120% to 130% up on an installed MIPS capacity already. And you know the tail of that usually happens in the outer path of the next 3 or 4 quarters before we come out with the new one. So we feel pretty good, and that's why we had the confidence entering this year, Arvind and I, to take up the transaction processing model to actually low single-digit growth from being down mid-singles. So we see that continuing. Thanks for your question.

但如果您現在快進到 z16，5 個季度後，我們已安裝的 MIPS 容量已經增加了 120% 到 130%。你知道，在我們推出新產品之前，通常會在接下來的 3 或 4 個季度的外部路徑中發生這種情況。所以我們感覺很好，這就是為什麼我們有信心進入今年，Arvind 和我，採用交易處理模型，從中單位數增長到實際上低個位數增長。所以我們看到這種情況仍在繼續。謝謝你的提問。

Our final question comes from Ben Reitzes with Melius Research.

我們的最後一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Ben Reitzes。

I wanted to ask you, Arvind, in layman's terms with regard to AI, I find a lot of investors want to understand IBM's place better. And in terms of AI, where you have your consulting and then hand it off to software, are you finding that IBM is well positioned to help people pick the right models to train, to lower their cost? What is it about IBM with the consulting and software that has your unique place set for growth and some of the optimism that you sound like you have heading into next year?

我想問你，Arvind，用外行的話來說，關於人工智能，我發現很多投資者都想更好地了解 IBM 的處境。在人工智能方面，您進行諮詢，然後將其交給軟件，您是否發現 IBM 能夠很好地幫助人們選擇合適的模型進行訓練，以降低成本？ IBM 的諮詢和軟件為何能為您帶來獨特的增長空間，以及您對明年的樂觀態度？

Ben, thank you for the question, and I deeply appreciate your asking it in that form. Look, when we look at -- let me start with our extreme advantage. When clients have data that they like to train models on and they absolutely want to preserve the intellectual property in that data, they do not want the learnings. I mean I can go through 3 forms.

本，謝謝你提出這個問題，我非常感謝你以這種形式提出這個問題。聽著，當我們看時——讓我從我們的極端優勢開始。當客戶擁有他們喜歡用來訓練模型的數據並且他們絕對希望保留該數據中的知識產權時，他們並不想要學習。我的意思是我可以填寫三種表格。

Almost everyone will say, look, we're not going to take your data and give it to anybody in direct form. Okay. Next, how about learnings in the model itself from the data? Do you use that implicitly or explicitly or not at all? Three, the very fact that you're asking a certain kind of question can in turn reveal information. I'll use the word from my college training of site channel information. I'm sure that all of you also understand what that word could imply.

幾乎每個人都會說，看，我們不會將您的數據直接提供給任何人。好的。接下來，如何從數據中學習模型本身？你是隱含地、明確地使用它還是根本不使用它？第三，你提出某種問題這一事實本身就能揭示信息。我將使用我大學網站渠道信息培訓中的單詞。相信大家也明白這個詞的含義。

So for people who are worried about all that, which we estimate to be at least 30% of the overall AI opportunity, think about a bank dealing with regulatory compliance. Think about a pharma company dealing with reports to the FDA. Think about a health care company worried about some kind of side effect on something. Think about a chemicals company worrying about their proprietary formulations, not just Watson, the literature. So as you go through all of these, there are lots and lots of examples where people want to train models. Maybe it's a refinement of a larger known model. So to your point on other models, and I'll come to that. So we found that there's a lot of opportunity, and those are the questions that people are asking us.

因此，對於那些擔心這一切的人（我們估計這至少佔整個人工智能機會的 30%），請考慮一家處理監管合規問題的銀行。想想一家處理向 FDA 報告的製藥公司。想像一下一家醫療保健公司擔心某些東西會產生某種副作用。想想一家化學品公司擔心他們的專有配方，而不僅僅是沃森和文獻。當你瀏覽所有這些內容時，你會發現有很多很多人們想要訓練模型的例子。也許這是一個更大的已知模型的改進。關於您對其他模型的看法，我會談到這一點。所以我們發現有很多機會，這些都是人們問我們的問題。

Then next, a number of people, [apparently], they have great models. They're great for big public consumption. They are great because everybody kind of has the same need for productivity. But there is also a world right now from the partners we work with, there's already over 100,000 open source models in addition to the models that we, IBM, provide.

接下來，有很多人，[顯然]，他們有很棒的模特。它們非常適合大量公共消費。它們很棒，因為每個人對生產力都有相同的需求。但現在與我們合作的合作夥伴也有一個世界，除了我們 IBM 提供的模型之外，已經有超過 100,000 個開源模型。

How do you pick from those models? Which one is appropriate? And we have taken a conscious strategy that we are not going to constrain the model that our clients want. So on our consulting teams, we will work with all the models, our own open source and others' models, so we can help our clients decide on which is the best one for them.

您如何從這些模型中進行選擇？哪一個合適？我們採取了有意識的策略，即我們不會限制客戶想要的模型。因此，在我們的諮詢團隊中，我們將使用所有模型、我們自己的開源模型和其他模型，這樣我們就可以幫助我們的客戶決定哪一個最適合他們。

Look, 30 years of being here has shown us that trying to help the clients navigate through the extreme complexity of this world is helpful to us, and we can become much better advisers and gain revenue in the process. So hopefully, that gives you a sense of how we are going to win here and get our fair share of this market.

看，30 年的經驗告訴我們，努力幫助客戶應對這個極端複雜的世界對我們很有幫助，我們可以成為更好的顧問，並在此過程中獲得收入。希望這能讓您了解我們將如何在這裡獲勝並獲得公平的市場份額。

So given that we just passed the top of the hour, let me wrap up the call. We are in a really good position as we enter the second half of the year. Solutions meet today's clients' needs, new innovation we are bringing to market, and there is momentum and productivity in our underlying operations. As always, we need to execute to capture the opportunity in front of us, and I look forward to sharing our progress with you as we move through the rest of the year.

鑑於我們剛剛過了最後一小時，讓我結束這次通話。進入下半年，我們處於非常有利的位置。解決方案滿足當今客戶的需求，我們正在向市場推出新的創新，並且我們的基礎運營具有動力和生產力。與往常一樣，我們需要執行以抓住擺在我們面前的機會，我期待著在今年剩下的時間裡與您分享我們的進展。

Thank you. Sue, let me turn it back to you to close out the call.

謝謝。蘇，讓我把它轉回給你以結束通話。

Thank you. Thank you for participating on today's call. The conference has now ended. You may disconnect at this time.

謝謝。感謝您參加今天的電話會議。會議現已結束。此時您可以斷開連接。