International Business Machines Corp (IBM) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome, and thank you for standing by. (Operator Instructions) Today's conference is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time. Now I will turn the meeting over to Ms. Patricia Murphy with IBM. Ma'am, you may begin.

歡迎，感謝您的支持。 （操作員說明）正在錄製今天的會議。如果您有異議，此時您可以斷開連接。現在我將會議轉交給 IBM 的 Patricia Murphy 女士。女士，您可以開始了。

Thank you. This is Patricia Murphy, and I'd like to welcome you to IBM's Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Presentation. I'm here today with Arvind Krishna, IBM's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer and Jim Kavanaugh, IBM's Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你。我是 Patricia Murphy，歡迎您參加 IBM 2022 年第四季度收益演示。今天，我和 IBM 董事長兼首席執行官 Arvind Krishna 以及 IBM 高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Jim Kavanaugh 一起來到這裡。

We'll post today's prepared remarks on the IBM investor website within a couple of hours, and a replay will be available by this time tomorrow. [To] provide additional information to our investors, our presentation includes certain non-GAAP measures. For example, all of our references to revenue growth are at constant currency. We have provided reconciliation charts for these and other non-GAAP measures at the end of the presentation, which is posted to our investor website.

我們將在幾個小時內在 IBM 投資者網站上發布今天準備好的評論，明天這個時候將提供重播。 [為了] 向我們的投資者提供更多信息，我們的演示文稿包括某些非 GAAP 措施。例如，我們所有提到的收入增長都是固定匯率。我們在演示文稿末尾提供了這些和其他非 GAAP 措施的調節表，該圖表發佈在我們的投資者網站上。

Finally, some comments made in this presentation may be considered forward-looking under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements involve factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially. Additional information about these factors is included in the company's SEC filings.

最後，根據 1995 年私人證券訴訟改革法案，本演示文稿中的一些評論可能被視為前瞻性。這些陳述涉及可能導致我們的實際結果出現重大差異的因素。有關這些因素的更多信息包含在公司提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中。

So with that, I'll turn the call over to Arvind.

因此，我將把電話轉給 Arvind。

Thank you for joining us. Our fourth quarter and full year results demonstrate the execution of our hybrid cloud and AI strategy. We delivered strong revenue growth in our business. The growth was broad based across our software, consulting and infrastructure segments as well as across geographies.

感謝您加入我們。我們的第四季度和全年業績證明了我們混合雲和人工智能戰略的執行。我們的業務實現了強勁的收入增長。增長廣泛基於我們的軟件、諮詢和基礎設施部門以及各個地區。

Our clients recognize that technology continues to be a fundamental source of competitive advantage. Over the last several quarters, it has become clear that technology is playing a significant role in boosting productivity in the face of inflation, demographic shifts, supply chain challenges and sustainability requirements. We entered 2022, a more focused company and took steps to reinforce our position. We strengthened our consulting expertise and expanded strategic partnerships. To bolster our software portfolio, we invested in hybrid cloud and AI capabilities. We also delivered significant innovations in infrastructure with our Z16 and Power platforms. All of this was brought to market with a more technical and experiential sales approach.

我們的客戶認識到，技術仍然是競爭優勢的基本來源。在過去的幾個季度中，很明顯，面對通貨膨脹、人口變化、供應鏈挑戰和可持續性要求，技術在提高生產力方面發揮著重要作用。我們進入 2022 年，成為一家更加專注的公司，並採取措施鞏固我們的地位。我們加強了諮詢專業知識並擴大了戰略合作夥伴關係。為了加強我們的軟件產品組合，我們投資了混合雲和人工智能功能。我們還通過 Z16 和 Power 平台在基礎設施方面進行了重大創新。所有這些都是通過更具技術性和體驗性的銷售方式推向市場的。

Looking back on the year, we are pleased with the progress we made. We delivered revenue growth above our mid-single-digit model, and we delivered solid free cash flow. But I'll acknowledge there is more to do. This year, we'll unlock more productivity, expand our strategic partnerships and put more investment in specific growth markets.

回顧這一年，我們對取得的進步感到欣慰。我們實現了高於中個位數模型的收入增長，並且提供了穩定的自由現金流。但我承認還有更多工作要做。今年，我們將釋放更多的生產力，擴大我們的戰略合作夥伴關係，並在特定的增長市場投入更多的投資。

For 2023, we see revenue growth in line with our mid-single-digit model range and about $10.5 billion of free cash flow. This keeps us on a path of sustainable growth. I will now provide some color on the progress we are making in the execution of our strategy.

到 2023 年，我們看到收入增長與我們的中個位數模型範圍和約 105 億美元的自由現金流一致。這使我們走上了可持續增長的道路。我現在將介紹我們在執行戰略方面取得的進展。

Our perspective is clear. Hybrid cloud and AI are the 2 most transformative technologies for business today. These technologies work together to drive business outcomes. Hybrid cloud is where the world is going. Containers are the preferred destination for applications. Hybrid cloud offers more value than relying on a singular public cloud. It enables organizations to drive business value across multiple clouds, on-premise or at the edge.

我們的觀點很明確。混合雲和人工智能是當今最具變革性的兩種商業技術。這些技術協同工作以推動業務成果。混合雲是世界的發展方向。容器是應用程序的首選目的地。混合雲比依賴單一的公共雲提供更多價值。它使組織能夠跨多個雲、本地或邊緣推動業務價值。

This includes scale, security, ease of use, flexibility of deployment, seamless experiences and faster innovation cycles. Our platform built on Red Hat is the leading container platform, allowing clients to harness the power of open source software innovations. IBM software and infrastructure technologies have been optimized for this platform. Our consultants and others leverage their extensive technical and business expertise to accelerate clients' digital transformation journeys.

這包括規模、安全性、易用性、部署靈活性、無縫體驗和更快的創新周期。我們基於 Red Hat 構建的平台是領先的容器平台，使客戶能夠利用開源軟件創新的力量。 IBM 軟件和基礎架構技術已針對該平台進行了優化。我們的顧問和其他人利用他們廣泛的技術和業務專業知識來加速客戶的數字化轉型之旅。

Clients are realizing real value from working with IBM's hybrid cloud platform approach. For example, we worked with the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce, CIBC, to adopt a hybrid cloud approach. Using Red Hat technology, CIBC manages and scales its infrastructure with greater speed and flexibility. They can now develop applications in a private cloud and quickly deploy them to a public cloud. They delivered hundreds of new applications and reduced provisioning time by 95% and deployment time by 50%.

客戶正在通過使用 IBM 的混合雲平台方法實現真正的價值。例如，我們與加拿大帝國商業銀行 (CIBC) 合作採用混合雲方法。使用紅帽技術，CIBC 可以更快、更靈活地管理和擴展其基礎架構。他們現在可以在私有云中開發應用程序并快速將它們部署到公共雲中。他們交付了數百個新應用程序，並將供應時間和部署時間分別縮短了 95% 和 50%。

We are helping Delta Air Lines leverage hybrid cloud to modernize options, automate operations and integrate security. IBM Consulting deployed Red Hat on Amazon Web Services and IBM Cloud Paks to provide a consistent platform. Delta now has more levers they can use to boost developer productivity, reduce time to market and improve employee satisfaction. CIBC and Delta are both great examples of the value hybrid cloud can provide.

我們正在幫助達美航空公司利用混合雲實現選項現代化、自動化運營和集成安全性。 IBM Consulting 在 Amazon Web Services 和 IBM Cloud Paks 上部署了 Red Hat 以提供一致的平台。 Delta 現在擁有更多可用於提高開發人員生產力、縮短上市時間和提高員工滿意度的槓桿。 CIBC 和 Delta 都是混合雲可以提供的價值的典範。

Let's now talk about artificial intelligence or AI. AI is projected to contribute $16 trillion to the global economy by 2030, including a massive boost in productivity by infusing AI into every enterprise process. We have been co-creating with many clients to deploy AI at scale. We automated the drive-through experience for quick-serve restaurants. We accelerated rollout of COVID-19 vaccines by automating the processes that assist millions of customers with inquiries and appointments. By applying AI and automation, we have helped security analysts reduce the time to respond to threats from hours or days to minutes.

現在讓我們談談人工智能或人工智能。到 2030 年，人工智能預計將為全球經濟貢獻 16 萬億美元，包括通過將人工智能融入每個企業流程來大幅提高生產力。我們一直在與許多客戶共同創造以大規模部署 AI。我們為快餐店實現了免下車體驗的自動化。我們通過自動化幫助數百萬客戶進行查詢和預約的流程，加快了 COVID-19 疫苗的推出。通過應用 AI 和自動化，我們幫助安全分析師將威脅響應時間從幾小時或幾天縮短到幾分鐘。

Recently, the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office partnered with IBM to leverage a host of AI capabilities that make it easier for people to glean insights from their vast database of patents. The BBC is now using our AIOps software to automate the management of its IT infrastructure.

最近，美國專利商標局與 IBM 合作，利用大量人工智能功能，使人們更容易從龐大的專利數據庫中收集見解。 BBC 現在正在使用我們的 AIOps 軟件來自動管理其 IT 基礎設施。

For businesses, deploying AI can be challenging because it takes time to train each model. But by using large language models, companies can now create multiple models using the same data set. This means businesses can deploy AI with a fraction of the time and resources. That is why we are investing in large language or foundation models for our clients and have infused these capabilities across our AI portfolio.

對於企業而言，部署人工智能可能具有挑戰性，因為訓練每個模型都需要時間。但是通過使用大型語言模型，公司現在可以使用相同的數據集創建多個模型。這意味著企業可以用一小部分時間和資源部署人工智能。這就是為什麼我們正在為我們的客戶投資大型語言或基礎模型，並將這些功能注入到我們的 AI 產品組合中。

Our partner ecosystem plays a critical role in the execution of our strategy. In the fourth quarter, we made a series of new IBM software offerings available as a service in the AWS marketplace. Likewise, Red Hat continued the expansion of its offerings in hyperscaler marketplaces, making Ansible automation platform available on both Azure and AWS. Adobe and Salesforce are also leveraging open source innovation based on Red Hat technologies in their offerings. Business with our strategic partners continues to grow with SAP, Microsoft and AWS all over $1 billion in revenue for the year.

我們的合作夥伴生態系統在我們戰略的執行中發揮著關鍵作用。在第四季度，我們在 AWS 市場上提供了一系列新的 IBM 軟件產品作為服務。同樣，紅帽繼續在超大規模市場擴展其產品，使 Ansible 自動化平台在 Azure 和 AWS 上可用。 Adobe 和 Salesforce 還在其產品中利用基於 Red Hat 技術的開源創新。與我們的戰略合作夥伴的業務繼續增長，SAP、Microsoft 和 AWS 今年的收入均超過 10 億美元。

We've had great success with our strategic partners; and as we enter the new year, we are expanding and better enabling our broader ecosystem. Recently launched Partners Plus, a new simplified program that increases our reach and scale through new and existing IBM partners. We remain focused on delivering new innovations that matter to our clients. In the fourth quarter, we introduced Red Hat Device Edge, a lightweight solution to flexibly deploy traditional or containerized workloads on small devices such as robots, IoT gateways, point of sale and public transport.

我們與戰略合作夥伴取得了巨大的成功；隨著我們進入新的一年，我們正在擴展並更好地支持我們更廣泛的生態系統。最近推出了 Partners Plus，這是一個新的簡化計劃，通過新的和現有的 IBM 合作夥伴擴大了我們的影響力和規模。我們仍然專注於提供對我們的客戶重要的新創新。在第四季度，我們推出了紅帽設備邊緣，這是一種輕量級解決方案，可以在機器人、物聯網網關、銷售點和公共交通等小型設備上靈活部署傳統或容器化工作負載。

We also formed a collaboration with the Japanese consortium Rapidus to leverage the depth of our intellectual property on advanced semiconductors. We unveiled Osprey, a 433 qubit quantum processor that brings us closer to delivering our goal of building a 1,000 qubit system later this year.

我們還與日本財團 Rapidus 建立了合作關係，以充分利用我們在先進半導體方面的知識產權深度。我們推出了 Osprey，這是一款 433 量子比特的量子處理器，它使我們更接近實現今年晚些時候構建 1,000 量子比特系統的目標。

At the same time, we continue to acquire companies to complement our organic innovation. In the fourth quarter, we acquired Octo, which improves our footprint in the U.S. federal market. This caps the year with 8 acquisitions across software and consulting.

與此同時，我們繼續收購公司以補充我們的有機創新。第四季度，我們收購了 Octo，這擴大了我們在美國聯邦市場的足跡。今年在軟件和諮詢領域進行了 8 次收購。

As sustainability becomes more of a priority, companies need digital technologies to analyze data, creating a baseline and improve the way they operate. Our software has helped IBM reduce its own carbon footprint. Across IBM's global real estate presence, we were able to reduce carbon emissions by over 61% when compared to 2010. Using IBM Sustainability Software, we have simplified and automated our sustainability reporting processes and reduced reporting costs by 30%.

隨著可持續性變得越來越重要，公司需要數字技術來分析數據、創建基準並改進他們的運營方式。我們的軟件幫助 IBM 減少了自身的碳足跡。在 IBM 的全球房地產業務中，與 2010 年相比，我們能夠將碳排放量減少 61% 以上。使用 IBM Sustainability Software，我們簡化並自動化了可持續性報告流程，並將報告成本降低了 30%。

Let me wrap by saying I'm pleased with the progress we have made with our portfolio, our go to market and our ecosystem. I'm confident in our ability to leverage hybrid cloud and AI to help clients turn business challenges into opportunities. Our strategy continues to strongly resonate with clients and partners, and this gives us a solid foundation to build upon in this year. While there is more to be done, we enter the new year as a more capable and nimble company, well equipped to meet our clients' needs.

讓我總結一下，我對我們在產品組合、上市和生態系統方面取得的進展感到滿意。我對我們利用混合雲和人工智能幫助客戶將業務挑戰轉化為機遇的能力充滿信心。我們的戰略繼續引起客戶和合作夥伴的強烈共鳴，這為我們在今年的發展奠定了堅實的基礎。儘管還有更多工作要做，但我們進入新的一年時將成為一家更有能力、更靈活的公司，並做好充分準備來滿足客戶的需求。

I will now turn it over to Jim, who will give you more detailed information on our performance and expectations.

我現在將其轉交給吉姆，他將為您提供有關我們的表現和期望的更多詳細信息。

Thanks, Arvind. I'll start with the financial highlights of the fourth quarter. We delivered $16.7 billion in revenue, $3.8 billion of operating pretax income and operating earnings per share of $3.60. In our seasonally strongest quarter, we generated $5.2 billion of free cash flow. Our revenue for the quarter was up over 6% at constant currency. While the dollar weakened a bit from 90 days ago, it still impacted our reported revenue by over $1 billion and 6.3 points of growth. As always, I'll focus my comments on constant currency, and I'll remind you that we wrapped on the separation of Kyndryl at the beginning of November. The 1-month contribution to our fourth quarter revenue growth was offset by the impact of our divested health business.

謝謝，阿文德。我將從第四季度的財務亮點開始。我們實現了 167 億美元的收入、38 億美元的稅前營業收入和 3.60 美元的每股營業收益。在我們季節性最強的季度，我們產生了 52 億美元的自由現金流。按固定匯率計算，我們本季度的收入增長了 6% 以上。雖然美元比 90 天前略微走弱，但它仍然影響了我們報告的收入超過 10 億美元和 6.3 個百分點的增長。與往常一樣，我將重點關注固定貨幣，並提醒您我們在 11 月初完成了 Kyndryl 的分離。 1 個月對我們第四季度收入增長的貢獻被我們剝離的健康業務的影響所抵消。

Revenue growth this quarter was again broad based. Software revenue was up 8% and consulting up 9%. These are our growth vectors and represent over 70% of our revenue. Infrastructure was up 7%.

本季度的收入增長再次具有廣泛的基礎。軟件收入增長了 8%，諮詢收入增長了 9%。這些是我們的增長載體，占我們收入的 70% 以上。基礎設施增長了 7%。

Within each of these segments, our growth was pervasive. We also had good growth across our geographies, with mid-single-digit growth or better in Americas, EMEA and Asia Pacific. And for the year, we gained share overall. We had strong transactional growth in software and hardware to close the year. At the same time, our recurring revenue, which provides a solid base of revenue and profit, also grew, led by software. I'll remind you that, on an annual basis, about half of our revenue is recurring.

在每個細分市場中，我們的增長無處不在。我們在各個地區也取得了良好的增長，在美洲、歐洲、中東和非洲和亞太地區實現了中個位數或更高的增長。在這一年中，我們的份額總體上有所增加。截至今年年底，我們在軟件和硬件方面的交易增長強勁。與此同時，在軟件的帶動下，我們的經常性收入也有所增長，為收入和利潤奠定了堅實的基礎。我會提醒你，每年，我們大約一半的收入是經常性的。

Over the last year, we've seen the results of a more focused hybrid cloud and AI strategy. Our approach to hybrid cloud is platform centric. As we land a platform, we get a multiplier effect across software, consulting and infrastructure. For the year, our hybrid cloud revenue was over $22 billion, up 17% from 2021.

在過去的一年裡，我們看到了更加專注的混合雲和人工智能戰略的成果。我們的混合雲方法是以平台為中心的。當我們登陸一個平台時，我們在軟件、諮詢和基礎設施方面獲得了乘數效應。這一年，我們的混合雲收入超過 220 億美元，比 2021 年增長 17%。

Looking at our profit metrics for the quarter, we expanded operating pretax margin by 170 basis points. This reflects a strong portfolio mix and improving software and consulting margins. These same dynamics drove a 60 basis point increase in operating gross margin. Our expense was down year-to-year driven by currency dynamics. Within our base expense, the work we're doing to digitally transform our operations provides flexibility to continue to invest in innovation and in talent. Our operating tax rate was 14%, which is flat versus last year. And our operating earnings per share of $3.60 was up over 7%.

從我們本季度的利潤指標來看，我們將營業稅前利潤率提高了 170 個基點。這反映了強大的產品組合以及軟件和諮詢利潤率的提高。這些相同的動力推動營業毛利率增長了 60 個基點。在貨幣動態的推動下，我們的費用逐年下降。在我們的基本費用範圍內，我們為數字化運營轉型所做的工作提供了靈活性，可以繼續投資於創新和人才。我們的營業稅率為 14%，與去年持平。我們的每股營業收入為 3.60 美元，增長超過 7%。

Turning to free cash flow. We generated $5.2 billion in the quarter and $9.3 billion for the year. Our full year free cash flow is up $2.8 billion from 2021. As we talked about all year, we have a few drivers of our free cash flow growth. First, I'll remind you, 2021's cash flow results included Kyndryl-related activity including the impact of spin charges and CapEx. Second, we had working capital improvements driven by efficiencies in our collections and mainframe cycle dynamics. Despite strong collections, the combination of revenue performance above our model and the timing of the transactions in the quarter led to higher-than-expected working capital at the end of the year. This impacted our free cash flow performance versus expectations.

轉向自由現金流。我們在本季度產生了 52 億美元，全年產生了 93 億美元。我們全年的自由現金流比 2021 年增加了 28 億美元。正如我們全年所討論的那樣，我們有一些自由現金流增長的驅動因素。首先，我要提醒您，2021 年的現金流量結果包括與 Kyndryl 相關的活動，包括旋轉費用和資本支出的影響。其次，在我們的收款效率和大型機週期動態的推動下，我們改善了營運資本。儘管收款強勁，但本季度高於我們模型的收入表現和交易時間的結合導致年底的營運資金高於預期。這影響了我們的自由現金流表現與預期的對比。

Our year-to-year free cash flow growth also includes a modest tailwind from cash tax payments and lower payments for structural actions, partially offset by increased CapEx investment for today's IBM. In terms of cash uses for the year, we invested $2.3 billion to acquire 8 companies across software and consulting, mitigated by over $1 billion in proceeds from divested businesses; and we returned nearly $6 billion to shareholders in the form of dividends.

我們每年的自由現金流增長還包括來自現金稅支付和結構性行動支付減少的適度順風，部分被當今 IBM 增加的資本支出投資所抵消。就當年的現金使用而言，我們投資 23 億美元收購了 8 家軟件和諮詢公司，剝離業務的收益超過 10 億美元；我們以股息的形式向股東返還了近 60 億美元。

From a balance sheet perspective, we ended the year in a strong liquidity position with cash of $8.8 billion. This is up over $1 billion year-to-year, and our debt balance is down nearly $1 billion. Our balance sheet remains strong, and I say the same for our retirement-related plans. At year-end, our worldwide tax-qualified plans are funded at 114%, with the U.S. at 125%. Both are up year-to-year.

從資產負債表的角度來看，我們以 88 億美元的現金結束了這一年，流動性狀況良好。這比去年同期增加了超過 10 億美元，而我們的債務餘額減少了近 10 億美元。我們的資產負債表依然強勁，我對我們的退休相關計劃也是如此。年底時，我們全球符合稅收條件的計劃的資金為 114%，美國為 125%。兩者都在逐年上升。

You'll recall back in September, we took another step to reduce the risk profile of our plans. We transferred a portion of our U.S. qualified defined benefit plan obligations to insurers without changing the benefits payable to plan participants. This resulted in a significant noncash charge in our GAAP results in the third quarter, and we'll see a benefit in our nonoperating charges going forward. You can see the benefit of this and other pension assumptions to the 2023 retirement-related costs in our supplemental charts.

您會記得在 9 月份，我們採取了另一個措施來降低我們計劃的風險狀況。我們在不改變應付給計劃參與者的福利的情況下，將部分美國合格的固定福利計劃義務轉移給了保險公司。這導致我們在第三季度的 GAAP 結果中產生了大量的非現金費用，我們將在未來的非運營費用中看到收益。您可以在我們的補充圖表中看到此和其他養老金假設對 2023 年退休相關成本的好處。

Turning to the segments. Software revenue grew 8%, fueled by growth in both hybrid platform and solutions and transaction processing. We concluded the year with seasonally strong transactional performance as well as a solid and growing recurring revenue base in software.

轉向細分市場。受混合平台和解決方案以及交易處理業務增長的推動，軟件收入增長了 8%。我們以季節性強勁的交易業績以及穩固且不斷增長的軟件經常性收入基礎結束了這一年。

In Hybrid Platform & Solutions, revenue was up 10%, with pervasive growth across our business areas: Red Hat, automation, data and AI, and security. Our platform-based approach to hybrid cloud and AI is resonating with clients. As a proof point, OpenShift, our industry-leading hybrid cloud platform, now has $1 billion in annual recurring revenue. And we modernize and optimize our software capabilities, including through Cloud Paks across automation, data and AI, and security for that platform.

在混合平台和解決方案方面，收入增長了 10%，我們的業務領域普遍增長：紅帽、自動化、數據和人工智能以及安全性。我們基於平台的混合雲和 AI 方法引起了客戶的共鳴。作為一個證明，我們行業領先的混合雲平台 OpenShift 現在每年的經常性收入為 10 億美元。我們還對我們的軟件功能進行了現代化改造和優化，包括通過跨自動化、數據和人工智能以及該平台安全性的 Cloud Paks。

Red Hat revenue grew 15% in the quarter, led by strength in OpenShift and Ansible, both growing double digits and gaining market share. Automation revenue was up 9%. Growth was led by business automation, application servers and integration as clients look to automate business workflows and improve applications. Data and AI revenue grew 8% with enterprise needs to organize, store and manage their data. This performance reflects demand in areas including data management, data fabric, and asset and supply chain management.

在 OpenShift 和 Ansible 的強勁帶動下，本季度紅帽收入增長了 15%，均實現兩位數增長並擴大了市場份額。自動化收入增長了 9%。業務自動化、應用程序服務器和集成引領增長，因為客戶希望實現業務工作流程自動化和改進應用程序。數據和人工智能收入增長了 8%，企業需要組織、存儲和管理他們的數據。這一表現反映了數據管理、數據結構以及資產和供應鏈管理等領域的需求。

Security delivered 10% revenue growth. We're helping clients detect, prevent and respond to security incidents, which led to strength across threat management, data security and identity. Across these businesses, the annual recurring revenue or ARR for Hybrid Platform & Solutions is $13.3 billion. And for all of software, hybrid cloud revenue is now more than $9.3 billion over the last year, up 16%.

安全帶來了 10% 的收入增長。我們正在幫助客戶檢測、預防和響應安全事件，從而增強了威脅管理、數據安全和身份識別方面的實力。在這些業務中，混合平台和解決方案的年度經常性收入或 ARR 為 133 億美元。對於所有軟件，混合雲收入現在比去年超過 93 億美元，增長 16%。

In Transaction Processing, revenue was up 3%. Demand for this mission-critical software has followed increases in zSystems installed base capacity over the last couple of product cycles, and strong renewal rates continued this quarter. Both are evidence of the importance of this platform in a hybrid cloud environment.

在交易處理方面，收入增長了 3%。在過去的幾個產品週期中，隨著 zSystems 安裝基礎容量的增加，對該任務關鍵型軟件的需求也隨之增加，並且本季度繼續保持強勁的更新率。兩者都證明了該平台在混合雲環境中的重要性。

Moving to software profit. Our pretax margin was up 2 points this quarter, contributing to a full year margin of nearly 25%. Consulting revenue grew 9%. Clients are leveraging IBM's hybrid cloud leadership and deep industry expertise to navigate the complexity of their digital transformation journeys. Revenue growth was broad based across all business lines and geographies. And I'll remind you that this is on top of the 16% growth Consulting delivered in the fourth quarter of 2021.

轉向軟件利潤。本季度我們的稅前利潤率上升了 2 個百分點，全年利潤率接近 25%。諮詢收入增長了 9%。客戶正在利用 IBM 的混合雲領導地位和深厚的行業專業知識來駕馭其數字化轉型之旅的複雜性。所有業務線和地區的收入增長都是廣泛的。我會提醒您，這是在 2021 年第四季度實現的 16% 的諮詢增長之上。

Strong demand for our offerings led to signings growth of 17%. With this, fourth quarter had the best quarterly book to bill of the year, and we sequentially improved our trailing 12-month book-to-bill ratio to 1.1.

對我們產品的強勁需求導致簽約增長 17%。因此，第四季度擁有年度最佳季度訂單出貨比，我們連續將過去 12 個月的訂單出貨比提高到 1.1。

Clients are partnering with IBM Consulting as they decide what applications to modernize and how to migrate those applications across hybrid, multi-cloud environments. Over the last 12 months, Consulting delivered $9 billion in hybrid cloud revenue, which is up 23%. This quarter, our Red Hat practice was again a meaningful contributor to this growth. Revenue from strategic partnerships also grew at a strong double-digit rate. We continue to see momentum in this space. In aggregate, our strategic partnership bookings were up over 50% with Azure and AWS more than doubling.

客戶與 IBM 諮詢部門合作，決定對哪些應用程序進行現代化改造，以及如何在混合、多雲環境中遷移這些應用程序。在過去 12 個月中，諮詢業務實現了 90 億美元的混合雲收入，增長了 23%。本季度，我們的紅帽實踐再次為這一增長做出了有意義的貢獻。來自戰略合作夥伴關係的收入也以兩位數的強勁速度增長。我們繼續看到這個領域的勢頭。總體而言，我們的戰略合作夥伴預訂量增加了 50% 以上，其中 Azure 和 AWS 增加了一倍多。

Turning to our lines of business. Business transformation revenue grew 7%. Growth in business transformation was once again driven by data and client experience transformations along with supply chain and finance optimization. Our partnerships with key ISV partners like SAP, Salesforce and Adobe enable IBM Consulting to transform critical workloads at scale. In technology consulting, where we architect and implement clients' cloud platforms and strategies, revenue was up 10%. Growth was led by cloud application development practices. Red Hat engagements along with our strategic hyperscaler partnerships contributed to the growth.

轉向我們的業務範圍。業務轉型收入增長 7%。業務轉型的增長再次受到數據和客戶體驗轉型以及供應鍊和財務優化的推動。我們與 SAP、Salesforce 和 Adobe 等主要 ISV 合作夥伴的合作夥伴關係使 IBM 諮詢能夠大規模轉變關鍵工作負載。在技術諮詢方面，我們設計和實施客戶的雲平台和戰略，收入增長了 10%。增長是由雲應用程序開發實踐引領的。紅帽的參與以及我們的戰略超大規模合作夥伴關係為增長做出了貢獻。

Application operations revenue grew 12%. We help clients to optimize their operations and reduce costs by taking over the management of applications in hybrid and multi-cloud environment. Our incumbency and understanding of clients' applications are key differentiators.

應用運營收入增長了 12%。我們通過接管混合雲和多雲環境中的應用程序管理，幫助客戶優化運營並降低成本。我們的責任感和對客戶應用程序的理解是關鍵的差異化因素。

Moving to Consulting profit. Our pretax margin was 11% for the quarter and nearly 9% for the year. The fourth quarter margin is up nearly 2 points year-to-year and over 1 point sequentially. We are starting to see the benefit from pricing actions and productivity, and our acquisitions have become more accretive.

轉向諮詢利潤。我們本季度的稅前利潤率為 11%，全年接近 9%。第四季度利潤率同比增長近 2 個百分點，環比增長超過 1 個百分點。我們開始看到定價行動和生產力帶來的好處，我們的收購也變得更加增值。

Turning to Infrastructure segment. Revenue grew 7% driven by hybrid infrastructure, which was up 11%. Within hybrid infrastructure, zSystems revenue grew 21% this quarter. Among the new z16 capabilities, clients are leveraging cyber resiliency to comply with business regulations and proactively avoid outages in their operation; and the new on-chip AI accelerator, for example, has been helping mitigate risk and detect fraud in credit card application processes.

轉向基礎設施部分。在混合基礎設施的推動下，收入增長了 7%，增長了 11%。在混合基礎架構中，本季度 zSystems 收入增長了 21%。在新的 z16 功能中，客戶正在利用網絡彈性來遵守業務法規並主動避免運營中斷；例如，新的片上人工智能加速器一直在幫助降低風險並檢測信用卡申請流程中的欺詐行為。

Our Distributed Infrastructure revenue was up 5%. This performance was fueled by strength in Power following the extension of Power10 innovation throughout the product line. Infrastructure Support performance was flat including the impact from client adoption of new hardware with the latest z16 product cycle.

我們的分佈式基礎設施收入增長了 5%。在將 Power10 創新擴展到整個產品線之後，Power 的實力推動了這一業績。基礎設施支持性能持平，包括客戶採用具有最新 z16 產品週期的新硬件的影響。

Moving to Infrastructure profit. Pretax margin was down less than 1 point in the quarter. And for the full year, our pretax margin was nearly 15%.

轉向基礎設施利潤。本季度稅前利潤率下降不到 1 個百分點。全年，我們的稅前利潤率接近 15%。

Now let me bring it back up to the IBM level to wrap up. At our investor briefing 15 months ago, we laid out our hybrid cloud and AI strategy, and our priorities of revenue growth and free cash flow generation. Since then, we've been focused on our portfolio, our go-to-market model, our ecosystem and our capital allocation to execute that strategy and create value through focus.

現在讓我把它帶回到 IBM 層面來總結一下。在 15 個月前的投資者簡報會上，我們制定了混合雲和人工智能戰略，以及收入增長和自由現金流產生的優先事項。從那時起，我們一直專注於我們的投資組合、我們的上市模式、我們的生態系統和我們的資本配置，以執行該戰略並通過專注創造價值。

We now just completed the first year as today's IBM. Our 2022 revenue was up nearly 12%, including nearly 4 points of incremental Kyndryl contribution. That's above our model of mid-single-digit growth. Over 70% of our revenue was in our growth vectors of software and consulting, and about half of our revenue is recurring.

我們現在剛剛完成了今天 IBM 的第一年。我們 2022 年的收入增長了近 12%，其中包括近 4 個百分點的增量 Kyndryl 貢獻。這高於我們的中個位數增長模型。我們超過 70% 的收入來自我們的軟件和諮詢增長載體，我們大約一半的收入是經常性的。

With this high-value mix and contribution from the incremental Kyndryl revenue, we expanded our full year operating pretax margin by 2.5 points. And our free cash flow was $9.3 billion, up $2.8 billion from the prior year. We invested organically and inorganically and returned significant value to shareholders through dividends.

憑藉這種高價值組合和 Kyndryl 收入增量的貢獻，我們將全年營業稅前利潤率提高了 2.5 個百分點。我們的自由現金流為 93 億美元，比上一年增加 28 億美元。我們進行有機和無機投資，並通過股息向股東回報可觀的價值。

Now there were some external factors that we faced this past year that impacted our profit and cash. We exited a profitable business in Russia. We are dealing with a much stronger dollar, and we are operating in a highly inflationary environment, which put pressure on our margins, especially in Consulting.

現在，我們在過去一年中面臨的一些外部因素影響了我們的利潤和現金。我們退出了俄羅斯的盈利業務。我們正在應對強得多的美元，而且我們在高度通貨膨脹的環境中運營，這給我們的利潤率帶來了壓力，尤其是在諮詢方面。

Putting it all together, we are pleased with the fundamentals of our business and the progress we have made in executing our strategy. Our 2022 performance demonstrates that we now have a higher growth, higher value company with higher return on invested capital and a strong and growing free cash flow.

總而言之，我們對我們的業務基本面以及我們在執行戰略方面取得的進展感到滿意。我們 2022 年的業績表明，我們現在擁有一家增長更快、價值更高的公司，具有更高的投資資本回報率和強勁且不斷增長的自由現金流。

For 2023, we again expect solid growth in our 2 most important measures of success: revenue and free cash flow. Arvind talked about the important role technology plays in this environment and how our solutions are closely aligned to the needs of our clients. With this, we expect constant currency revenue growth for the year to be in line with our mid-single-digit model. As we enter this year, I think it's prudent to expect the low end of the mid-single-digit model. And for free cash flow, we'd expect to generate about $10.5 billion in 2023, which is up over $1 billion year-to-year.

對於 2023 年，我們再次預計我們的 2 個最重要的成功指標將實現穩健增長：收入和自由現金流。 Arvind 談到了技術在這種環境中扮演的重要角色，以及我們的解決方案如何與客戶的需求緊密結合。因此，我們預計今年貨幣收入的持續增長將符合我們的中個位數模型。當我們進入今年時，我認為期望中個位數模型的低端是謹慎的。對於自由現金流，我們預計到 2023 年將產生約 105 億美元，同比增長超過 10 億美元。

Let me spend a minute on our expectations for constant currency revenue and pretax profit performance by segment. In Software, with continued momentum in our recurring revenue stream in both hybrid platform and solutions and transaction processing, we expect revenue growth in line with software's mid-single-digit model. This revenue growth generates operating leverage, and we'd expect software pretax margin to expand by about 2 points year-to-year. Consulting's model is to deliver high single-digit revenue.

讓我花一點時間談談我們對固定貨幣收入和按部門劃分的稅前利潤表現的預期。在軟件方面，隨著我們在混合平台和解決方案以及交易處理方面的經常性收入流持續增長，我們預計收入增長將與軟件的中個位數模型保持一致。這種收入增長產生了經營槓桿，我們預計軟件稅前利潤率將同比增長約 2 個百分點。諮詢的模式是提供高個位數的收入。

We're coming off a strong year with revenue growth of 15% as we help clients with their digital transformations. This momentum and strong book-to-bill ratio support Consulting revenue growth at the high end of its model despite the tough compare. We expect to expand Consulting pretax margin by at least 1 point as we continue to realize more of the price increases and improved utilization. Infrastructure revenue is roughly flat over the midterm model horizon, with performance in any year reflecting product cycle dynamics. We're entering the year 3 quarters into the z16 cycle, and we'll also [wrap up] Power10.

在幫助客戶進行數字化轉型的過程中，我們迎來了強勁的一年，收入增長了 15%。儘管比較艱難，但這種勢頭和強勁的訂單出貨比支持了其模型高端的諮詢收入增長。隨著我們繼續實現更多的價格上漲和提高利用率，我們預計將諮詢稅前利潤率擴大至少 1 個百分點。基礎設施收入在中期模型範圍內大致持平，任何一年的表現都反映了產品週期動態。我們將進入 z16 週期的第 3 個季度，我們還將 [總結] Power10。

As a result, we expect 2023 infrastructure revenue below its model and pretax margin in the low teens. For perspective, Infrastructure should impact IBM's overall revenue growth by over 1 point. With these segment dynamics, we would expect IBM's operating pretax margin to expand by about 0.5 point. That's in line with our model. And our tax rate should be in the mid- to high teens range.

因此，我們預計 2023 年的基礎設施收入將低於其模型，稅前利潤率將處於較低水平。從長遠來看，基礎設施應該會影響 IBM 的整體收入增長超過 1 個百分點。憑藉這些細分市場動態，我們預計 IBM 的營業稅前利潤率將擴大約 0.5 個百分點。這符合我們的模型。我們的稅率應該在中高十幾歲的範圍內。

Let me comment on a few items within our expectations. First, as I said, currency was a significant headwind in 2022, impacting revenue by $3.5 billion. With the movement of spot rates over the last 90 days, currency translation would be fairly neutral to revenue in 2023 with a headwind in the first half flipping to a tailwind in the second. But I'll remind you that we had over $650 million of hedging gains in 2022, which will not repeat in 2023, resulting in an impact to our profit and cash on a year-to-year basis.

讓我評論一些符合我們預期的項目。首先，正如我所說，貨幣是 2022 年的一個重大逆風，影響了 35 億美元的收入。隨著過去 90 天即期匯率的變動，貨幣換算對 2023 年收入的影響將相當中性，上半年的不利因素將在下半年轉為有利因素。但我要提醒您，我們在 2022 年獲得了超過 6.5 億美元的對沖收益，這種情況在 2023 年不會重演，從而對我們的利潤和現金產生同比影響。

Second, as you know, we've taken a number of significant portfolio actions over the last couple of years, which has resulted in some stranded costs in our business. We expect to address these remaining stranded costs early in the year and anticipate a charge of about $300 million in the first quarter. We would start to see benefits in the second half and pay back by the end of the year.

其次，如您所知，我們在過去幾年採取了一系列重要的投資組合行動，這導致我們的業務出現了一些擱淺成本。我們預計在今年年初解決這些剩餘的擱淺成本，並預計第一季度的費用約為 3 億美元。我們將在下半年開始看到收益，並在年底前收回成本。

And then third, we regularly review the useful lives of our assets. Due to advances in technology, we are making an accounting change to extend the useful life of our server and networking equipment effective the first of January. Based on our year-end asset base, we expect this change to benefit 2023 pretax profit by over $200 million, primarily in our Infrastructure segment. Given this is a change to the depreciation, there's no benefit to cash.

第三，我們定期審查資產的使用壽命。由於技術的進步，我們正在進行會計變更，以延長服務器和網絡設備的使用壽命，從 1 月 1 日開始生效。根據我們的年終資產基礎，我們預計這一變化將使 2023 年的稅前利潤受益超過 2 億美元，主要是在我們的基礎設施部門。鑑於這是折舊的變化，現金沒有任何好處。

Looking at the first quarter. Our constant currency revenue growth should be fairly consistent with the full year. Reported growth will also include about a 3-point currency headwind at current spot rates. With operating leverage, we'd expect operating pretax margin to expand 50 to 100 basis points in the first quarter. And that's before the charge I just mentioned for the remaining stranded costs. Given the timing of currency and stranded cost dynamics, we'd expect about 1/3 of our net income in the first half and about 2/3 in the second half.

看第一季度。我們持續的貨幣收入增長應該與全年相當一致。報告的增長還將包括以當前即期匯率計算的大約 3 個百分點的貨幣逆風。憑藉經營槓桿，我們預計第一季度經營稅前利潤率將擴大 50 至 100 個基點。那是在我剛剛提到的剩餘擱淺成本之前的費用。考慮到貨幣和擱淺成本動態的時機，我們預計上半年淨收入約為 1/3，下半年約為 2/3。

To sum it all up, we have made a lot of progress this past year. While there's always more work to do, we're confident in the fundamentals of our business, and how we're positioned as we enter the new year.

總而言之，我們在過去的一年裡取得了很大的進步。儘管總是有更多的工作要做，但我們對我們業務的基本面以及進入新的一年時的定位充滿信心。

Patricia, let's go to the Q&A.

Patricia，讓我們進入問答環節。

Thank you, Jim. Before we begin the Q&A, I'd like to mention a couple of items. First, supplemental information for the quarter and the year is provided at the end of the presentation. (Operator Instructions) Operator, let's please open it up for questions.

謝謝你，吉姆。在我們開始問答之前，我想提幾個問題。首先，在演示文稿末尾提供了季度和年度的補充信息。 （操作員說明）操作員，請打開它提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from Amit Daryanani with Evercore.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自 Evercore 的 Amit Daryanani。

I guess my question is around the free cash flow numbers. And perhaps you could spend a little bit of time on -- you touched on kind of the '22 levers a fair bit and how you got there. But as you think about calendar '23 free cash flow of $10.5 billion, upwards of $1.2 billion, what are the puts and takes? What are the bridges that get you there?

我想我的問題是關於自由現金流量數字。也許你可以花一點時間——你稍微談到了 22 年的槓桿，以及你是如何到達那裡的。但是，當您考慮 23 年 105 億美元、超過 12 億美元的日曆自由現金流時，看跌期權和看跌期權是什麼？讓你到達那裡的橋樑是什麼？

And then maybe related to that, as I think about what you did in '22 and '23, it does imply to get to this $35 billion number over 3 years, '24 would have to be $14 billion plus. So perhaps you can level set that because I do think from when you provided the $35 billion number, a fair bit has changed. So maybe a bridge for '23 and just an update on how you think about the $35 billion number over 3 years as well.

然後可能與此相關，正如我想你在 22 年和 23 年所做的那樣，這確實意味著要在 3 年內達到這個 350 億美元的數字，24 年必須超過 140 億美元。所以也許你可以設置水平，因為我確實認為從你提供 350 億美元的數字開始，已經發生了相當大的變化。因此，也許是 23 年的一座橋樑，也只是更新你如何看待 3 年內 350 億美元的數字。

Thanks, Amit. This is Jim. I appreciate the question. So let's start there. We saw a solid free cash flow generation in 2022, up $2.8 billion year-over-year. Now as you remember, we entered 2022. We talked about a very strong free cash flow generation engine, and we put in place a guidance for 2022 well in excess of our model of $750 million year-to-year. First, as we were very transparent, we were going to get at least about half of that out of the Kyndryl-related spin dynamics. That's the charges and CapEx. And we were going to get a little bit more than half of that out of our base operations overall.

謝謝，阿米特。這是吉姆。我很欣賞這個問題。讓我們從這裡開始吧。我們在 2022 年看到了穩定的自由現金流產生，同比增長 28 億美元。現在你還記得，我們進入了 2022 年。我們談到了一個非常強大的自由現金流生成引擎，我們制定了 2022 年的指導方針，遠遠超過我們每年 7.5 億美元的模型。首先，由於我們非常透明，我們將從與 Kyndryl 相關的自旋動力學中獲得至少一半的信息。這就是費用和資本支出。我們將從我們的整體基地運營中獲得一半以上的資金。

And I think when you look at 2022, what happened? We got impacted by 2 external factors: number one, the unfortunate humanitarian crisis with the war in Russia and Ukraine, and we exited that business, the right decision; second is unprecedented U.S. dollar appreciation. I think last time I looked, the rate, the breadth, the magnitude of the change is the most we've seen in multiple decades. We got hit with that, but we're able to overcome some of that with the fundamental underpinnings of our business overall and still delivered almost $3 billion of free cash flow year-over-year. By the way, Russian currency by themselves is over $600 million of profit and cash we had to absorb.

我想當你看看 2022 年時，發生了什麼？我們受到兩個外部因素的影響：第一，俄羅斯和烏克蘭戰爭帶來的不幸人道主義危機，我們退出了該業務，這是正確的決定；二是美元空前升值。我想上次我看的時候，變化的速度、廣度和幅度是我們幾十年來看到的最大變化。我們受到了打擊，但我們能夠憑藉我們整體業務的基本基礎來克服其中的一些問題，並且仍然實現了近 30 億美元的自由現金流。順便說一下，單單是俄羅斯貨幣，我們就需要吸收超過 6 億美元的利潤和現金。

So now to your question about 2023, we guided, as you heard in the prepared remarks, a $10.5 billion. That's up $1.2 billion year-over-year and again, above our $750 million year-to-year. The underpinnings of that, though, are going to be very different in '23. Given the improving business fundamentals of our now sustainable revenue growth with a high-value mix contribution, we see then continued operating leverage. So our cash PTI is going to deliver a substantial amount of that free cash flow generation year-over-year.

所以現在關於你關於 2023 年的問題，正如你在準備好的發言中聽到的那樣，我們指導了 105 億美元。這比去年同期增加了 12 億美元，再次高於我們的 7.5 億美元。不過，其基礎在 23 年將大不相同。鑑於我們現在可持續的收入增長和高價值組合貢獻的業務基礎正在改善，我們看到了持續的經營槓桿。因此，我們的現金 PTI 將逐年產生大量的自由現金流。

We're still going to get working capital efficiency, so our realization will definitely be up over 100%. But that's really given the volume dynamics of what happened in the fourth quarter with a very strong and accelerated growth profile as we went through fourth quarter. We finished extremely strong on our transactional business in the month of December. So that now creates an opportunity for free cash flow generation in '23, and that's in our guidance.

我們仍將獲得營運資本效率，因此我們的實現率肯定會超過 100%。但這確實是考慮到第四季度發生的事情的數量動態，以及我們經歷第四季度時非常強勁和加速的增長情況。我們在 12 月份的交易業務上表現非常出色。因此，現在為 23 年的自由現金流創造了機會，這在我們的指導中。

And then there are some other puts and takes. Yes, we'll get modest structural actions tailwind, but they're going to be offset by a cash tax headwind for the year. So that kind of plays out 2022 and 2023.

然後還有一些其他的投入和投入。是的，我們將獲得適度的結構性行動順風，但它們將被今年的現金稅逆風所抵消。所以這種情況會持續到 2022 年和 2023 年。

Now how does that relate to a midterm model? First of all, we're 1 year into that midterm model. And as I talked about, the dynamics in dealing with the decision to exit our Russia business and the significant U.S. dollar appreciation, I quantified it for you over a $600 million impact on profit and cash. But as you all know quite well, that's not a onetime impact. That will continue over a multi-period, and it definitely puts pressure on our midterm model to the tune cumulatively about over $2.5 billion. So we are entirely focused on how we execute this company on a sustainable revenue growth profile and generating that $10.5 billion of free cash flow, so it enables us, with the right ample financial flexibility, to continue to invest in our business and return value to our shareholders overall.

現在，這與中期模型有何關係？首先，我們進入該中期模型已有 1 年了。正如我所說，處理退出俄羅斯業務的決定和美元大幅升值的動態，我為你量化了它對利潤和現金的 6 億美元影響。但眾所周知，這不是一次性的影響。這將持續多個時期，這無疑給我們的中期模型帶來了累計超過 25 億美元的壓力。因此，我們完全專注於我們如何以可持續的收入增長方式執行這家公司並產生 105 億美元的自由現金流，因此它使我們能夠以適當的充足財務靈活性繼續投資於我們的業務並將價值回報給我們的整體股東。

Our next question comes from Wamsi Mohan with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Wamsi Mohan。

Arvind, Nice to see the revenue guide here. I was wondering if you could share some thoughts around what's happening in software in particular. You've had a really strong performance in Transaction Processing over the past year. How are you thinking about the trajectory of that? I know historically, we've kind of thought about this as mid-single-digit or higher decliner, and clearly, we're tracking very differently here. If you could share some thoughts around the trajectory of that in 2023 and beyond, that would be very helpful.

Arvind，很高興在這裡看到收入指南。我想知道您是否可以分享一些關於軟件中正在發生的事情的想法。在過去的一年中，您在事務處理方面的表現非常出色。你如何看待它的發展軌跡？我知道從歷史上看，我們已經將其視為中等個位數或更高的下降幅度，顯然，我們在這裡的追踪方式非常不同。如果您能就 2023 年及以後的發展軌跡分享一些想法，那將非常有幫助。

Yes. Thanks, Wamsi, for the question. So I'll address your Transaction Processing question first and then all of Software right After that. So some of you have heard me talk about that Transaction Processing would be a mid-single-digit decliner in the past. And that effectively, Wamsi, is what you asked, what's going to be different. As we look at our business there and we look both at the underlying MIPS growth as well as the criticality of that software as well as our ability to have some very modest pricing uplifts, we would now look at that business as being a slight increaser as opposed to a modest decliner. So I think if you are looking at that one, Wamsi, low single-digit increases for Transaction Processing is what we think is appropriate for the short- to medium-term model looking forward.

是的。謝謝，Wamsi，提出這個問題。因此，我將首先解決您的交易處理問題，然後再解決所有軟件問題。所以你們中的一些人聽我說過，交易處理在過去將是一個中等個位數的下降。 Wamsi，這實際上就是您所要求的，會有什麼不同。當我們審視我們在那裡的業務時，我們既審視了潛在的 MIPS 增長，也審視了該軟件的關鍵性，以及我們進行一些非常適度的定價提升的能力，我們現在將該業務視為略有增長與適度下降者相反。所以我認為，如果你正在看那個，Wamsi，交易處理的低個位數增長是我們認為適合短期到中期模型的展望。

Now that does help in overall Software. So first, let's look at Software and decompose it. Software, as Jim mentioned in his prepared remarks, is almost 80% recurring revenue. We see that recurring revenue increasing consistent with our model of the mid-single digits based on both the consumption, the usage as well as what we have seen through '22 in people renewing that base of Software business.

現在這確實有助於整體軟件。所以首先，讓我們看一下軟件並將其分解。軟件，正如吉姆在他準備好的發言中提到的那樣，幾乎是 80% 的經常性收入。我們看到，根據消費、使用以及我們在 22 年人們更新軟件業務基礎上看到的情況，經常性收入的增長與我們的中個位數模型一致。

Then I will acknowledge to you that '22 was a great ELA year. '23 will be not as good as '22, but with the transactional piece of the business being less than 20%, that has a much smaller impact on the overall growth rate. As you put all that together, we see the mid-single digits as being appropriate for the Software business.

然後我會向你承認 22 年是 ELA 的偉大一年。 '23 將不如 '22，但由於業務的交易部分低於 20%，這對整體增長率的影響要小得多。當您將所有這些放在一起時，我們認為中間個位數適合軟件業務。

Our next question comes from Toni Sacconaghi with Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自 Toni Sacconaghi 和 Bernstein。

I was wondering if you could just comment on operating profit more broadly. I think your target at the beginning of the year was for operating profit to improve 400 basis points, and it came in at 270. I think your target for the fourth quarter was 250 basis point improvement in operating margin and came in at 170. And so -- and that's manifesting itself into a free cash flow number that was lower than you had expected and this year and potentially for next year relative to your $35 billion target.

我想知道你是否可以更廣泛地評論營業利潤。我認為你今年年初的目標是營業利潤提高 400 個基點，結果為 270。我認為你第四季度的目標是營業利潤率提高 250 個基點，結果為 170。而且所以——這表明自由現金流量低於你的預期，今年和明年可能低於你 350 億美元的目標。

So you have a dual mandate, Arvind. One is to try and grow mid-single digits, and the other is to deliver very strong cash flow, which is impacted by margins. The margin was not as strong this year, and I'm wondering if you can highlight what was different from your expectations and what were the challenges in forecasting that and how investors should think about that and free cash flow realization going forward.

所以你有雙重任務，Arvind。一個是嘗試增長中個位數，另一個是提供非常強勁的現金流，這會受到利潤率的影響。今年的利潤率沒有那麼高，我想知道你是否可以強調與你的預期不同的地方，預測的挑戰是什麼，以及投資者應該如何考慮這一點以及未來的自由現金流實現。

Yes. Toni, thanks. So you're completely accurate that these numbers are slightly below our expectations from the beginning of the year. I will ask Jim to comment and give you a lot more color on it. But let me first comment on your statement of we have a double mandate of revenue growth and free cash flow growth. So -- but I want to also be clear, revenue growth has -- which manifests itself in client satisfaction, higher NPS from our clients, better consumption of both software and consulting from our clients, which allows them to consume more and more over time, is what we are focused on. And it's an -- and we have to deliver the free cash flow growth.

是的。托尼，謝謝。所以你完全準確地說，這些數字略低於我們年初的預期。我會請吉姆發表評論並給你更多的顏色。但讓我首先評論一下你的聲明，我們有收入增長和自由現金流增長的雙重任務。所以——但我也想明確一點，收入增長——體現在客戶滿意度、客戶更高的淨推薦值、軟件和客戶諮詢的更好消費，這讓他們隨著時間的推移消費越來越多，是我們關注的重點。這是一個——我們必須實現自由現金流的增長。

Jim mentioned in a response to the first question that we were not expecting the business in Russia to get shut down. That impacted it a little bit. We were not expecting the currency headwinds to be as severe as it turned out to be. That's certainly impacted. And I'll acknowledge and inflation, as in wage inflation, showed up and impacted our margins in Consulting a lot more than we were expecting.

吉姆在回答第一個問題時提到，我們不希望俄羅斯的業務被關閉。這對它有一點影響。我們沒想到貨幣逆風會像事實證明的那樣嚴重。那肯定是有影響的。我承認，通貨膨脹，如工資上漲，對我們諮詢業務的利潤率的影響比我們預期的要大得多。

Now an answer could have been to not hire people and to not give that, but that would have resulted then in lower capacity at the end of this year, which would not have allowed us the confidence into the growth, both in Consulting and in Software that we are now committing for 2023. So as we balance those, it becomes a business decision to say we are going to keep going on increasing capacity, which results in healthier revenue, and it will result in improving margins, but that flows through into 2023 as opposed to giving it all to us in 2022.

現在的答案可能是不僱用人員並且不提供人員，但這會導致今年年底產能下降，這不會讓我們對諮詢和軟件方面的增長充滿信心我們現在承諾到 2023 年。因此，當我們平衡這些時，我們將繼續增加產能，這會帶來更健康的收入，這將導致利潤率提高，但這會流入2023 年，而不是在 2022 年全部交給我們。

So Toni, that's kind of how we think about balancing the investments in the business versus a quarterly result. And I'll ask Jim to comment a bit more on some of the specifics of what you were asking.

所以托尼，這就是我們考慮平衡業務投資與季度業績的方式。我會請 Jim 就您提出的問題的一些細節發表更多評論。

Yes. Just to put some numbers around this, Toni, you're exactly right. We entered the year. We talked about a business profile, higher revenue growth company, higher operating margins, strong free cash flow yield. And we had guided at mid-single-digit revenue growth, and we guided that 4 points of operating margin improvement.

是的。只是為了圍繞這個給出一些數字，托尼，你是完全正確的。我們進入了年。我們談到了業務概況、更高的收入增長公司、更高的營業利潤率、強勁的自由現金流收益率。我們已經指導了中個位數的收入增長，我們指導了 4 個營業利潤率的提高。

The 2 points of external that both Arvind and I have both talked about Russia and currency, by the way, that was about 0.5 point because currency [member], as we've talked about many times throughout these calls, not only the rate breadth and velocity and change in magnitude that we haven't seen in about 2 to 3 decades, but it impacts human capital-based consulting business very differently than a product technology-based business.

順便說一句，Arvind 和我都談到了俄羅斯和貨幣的 2 個外部點，大約是 0.5 個點，因為我們在這些電話會議中多次談到貨幣 [成員]，不僅是利率範圍以及我們在大約 2 到 3 年內未曾見過的速度和幅度變化，但它對基於人力資本的諮詢業務的影響與基於產品技術的業務的影響截然不同。

As we talked about, human capital is all pretty much a natural hedge because your cost is basically matched with your revenue outside of global delivery. But in a product-based business, our costs like the industry is predominantly U.S. dollar sourced, and that's why you've seen pressure on the gross profit margin line and the pretax profit margin line around our technology base of business.

正如我們所說，人力資本幾乎是一種自然的對沖，因為你的成本基本上與你在全球交付之外的收入相匹配。但在基於產品的業務中，我們的行業成本主要來自美元，這就是為什麼你看到我們業務技術基礎的毛利率線和稅前利潤率線受到壓力。

Now underlying that, though, I think you're seeing a fundamental improvement in our margins as we go forward, so about 50 basis points of currency. The remaining 100 basis points was Consulting. And we talked about that. That's been a rate and pace discussion. You dial back 15, 18 months ago. We called a very accelerated demand environment of our clients shifting the digital transformation and journey to cloud. And starting in the second half of '21, we made the bet to make investments around skill, capability, ecosystems, and we opened up the aperture to build extended capabilities inorganically.

不過，現在作為基礎，我認為隨著我們的前進，你會看到我們的利潤率有了根本性的改善，所以大約 50 個基點的貨幣。剩下的 100 個基點是諮詢。我們談到了這一點。這是一個速度和節奏的討論。你撥回 15、18 個月前。我們稱客戶的需求環境非常加速，正在將數字化轉型和旅程轉移到雲端。從 21 年下半年開始，我們下注圍繞技能、能力、生態系統進行投資，我們打開了無機地構建擴展能力的大門。

And we knew as we went through 2022 that we then we're operating in a highly inflationary environment. And then it became a rate and pace discussion on how quick can you get price margin and optimization and realize through your backlog. And I think we've acknowledged that we were pretty slow throughout the year.

我們知道，當我們經歷 2022 年時，我們將在一個高度通貨膨脹的環境中運營。然後它變成了關於你能多快獲得價格利潤和優化並通過你的積壓實現的速度和節奏討論。而且我認為我們已經承認我們全年都非常緩慢。

Now with that said, we finished the year about 9 points of margin in Consulting. We had nice improvement. We exited fourth quarter at 11-point PTI model. That was up almost 200 basis points year-over-year. Our first half to second half, we saw an acceleration of 3 points of margin from about a 7-point operating PTI model to well over 10 points of an operating PTI model. And most importantly, the green shoots are starting to play out in the fourth quarter. Our utilization of effective capacity, 1 of the 3 levers we talked about all year, up 3 points in the fourth quarter. Our price margins, third consecutive quarter, are up year-to-year, and you're seeing that play out in that operating profit performance.

話雖如此，我們今年在諮詢方面的利潤率約為 9 個百分點。我們有很好的進步。我們以 11 點 PTI 模型退出第四季度。這比去年同期上漲了近 200 個基點。從上半年到下半年，我們看到利潤率從大約 7 點的運營 PTI 模型加速到超過 10 點的運營 PTI 模型。最重要的是，綠芽在第四節開始顯現。我們對有效產能的利用是我們全年談論的 3 個槓桿中的一個，在第四季度上升了 3 個百分點。我們的價格利潤率連續第三個季度同比增長，您會在營業利潤表現中看到這一點。

And finally, acquisitions, now we're on a steady state, and our acquisitions are back to accretion. So we see nice green shoots that lead to our guidance in 2023 at the high end of our high single-digit model in Consulting on revenue coming off of a very strong 15% growth in '22 and guiding another 1 point plus in operating margins going forward.

最後，收購，現在我們處於穩定狀態，我們的收購又回到了增長階段。因此，我們看到了很好的新芽，這導致我們在 2023 年的指導意見中處於高個位數諮詢模型的高端，收入從 22 年 15% 的強勁增長中脫穎而出，並指導營業利潤率再增加 1 個百分點向前。

Our next question will come from Shannon Cross with Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題將來自瑞士信貸的 Shannon Cross。

Can you hear me?

你能聽到我嗎？

Yes, we can hear you now.

是的，我們現在可以聽到你的聲音了。

Okay. Interesting. Yes, Arvind, can you talk a bit about AI and how it runs through your business? There's obviously so much discussion right now about OpenAI and Microsoft making investments. And I guess I'm trying to think about how we should think about IBM monetizing it, capitalizing on it, how you think about your competitive position relative to others. I don't know if there are examples you can give of where you're utilizing it. But I'm just -- I'm wondering, as AI gets more and more of a -- becomes more and more of a discussion point apparently for 2023 and you have such a long history with it, how we should think about where you are now and where you're going to take it.

好的。有趣的。是的，Arvind，你能談談 AI 以及它如何貫穿你的業務嗎？現在顯然有很多關於 OpenAI 和微軟進行投資的討論。我想我正在考慮我們應該如何考慮 IBM 將其貨幣化，利用它，以及您如何看待您相對於其他人的競爭地位。我不知道您是否可以舉例說明您在哪裡使用它。但我只是 - 我想知道，隨著 AI 越來越多 - 顯然在 2023 年成為越來越多的討論點，而且你對它有著如此悠久的歷史，我們應該如何考慮你在哪裡現在和你要去哪裡。

Thanks, Shannon. So first, let me acknowledge, AI has become a big topic of conversation this year. I was in Davos last week, and it probably came up at almost every single discussion around technology, what's happening with AI as well as what's happening with OpenAI. If I think about it over the last decade, I think there were 3 moments we can talk about, and then I'll begin to translate those into a business impact. One, when IBM won Jeopardy! with Watson, I think it was a big moment, and AI came on to everyone's road map. Second, when deep mind from Google or Alphabet started winning competitions around, for example, GO, and that became another big moment along with the protein folding that they did and now with OpenAI and ChatGPT.

謝謝，香農。所以首先，讓我承認，人工智能已成為今年的一個重要話題。上週我在達沃斯，它可能出現在幾乎每一次關於技術、人工智能正在發生的事情以及 OpenAI 正在發生的事情的討論中。如果我在過去十年中考慮它，我認為我們可以討論 3 個時刻，然後我將開始將它們轉化為業務影響。第一，當 IBM 贏得 Jeopardy！有了沃森，我認為這是一個重要時刻，人工智能出現在每個人的路線圖上。其次，當來自谷歌或 Alphabet 的深度思維開始贏得圍繞圍棋的比賽時，這成為另一個重要時刻，以及他們所做的蛋白質折疊，以及現在的 OpenAI 和 ChatGPT。

But if I step back just a moment, all of this latest version is based on what is called large language models as the underlying science. Universities do it. Google does it. IBM does it as does OpenAI. To just get to why it's so exciting, for example, for us, it allows us to do 13 language models when we are looking at understanding different natural languages in the same cost as originally 1. That is what is so exciting about these technologies because if you can get an order of magnitude improvement in cost and speed and the resource consumed, both in terms of hardware and people, that is incredibly exciting.

但是，如果我退後一步，所有這些最新版本都基於所謂的大型語言模型作為基礎科學。大學這樣做。谷歌做到了。 IBM 和 OpenAI 一樣。為了弄清楚為什麼它如此令人興奮，例如，對我們來說，當我們以與最初 1 相同的成本來理解不同的自然語言時，它允許我們做 13 種語言模型。這就是這些技術如此令人興奮的原因，因為如果你能在硬件和人員方面的成本和速度以及消耗的資源方面取得一個數量級的改進，那將是非常令人興奮的。

Now let me translate this into how do we monetize this. So our monetization of AI is very much focused on that $16 trillion of productivity that I've talked about that we're going to get over the decade. The vast majority of that comes from enterprise automation; and when I say enterprise, I include governments into it. Some examples, if you can automate the drive-through and order taking for quick-serve restaurants, that's an example of what can happen. If we can get deflection rates of 40%, 50%, 60% at everyone's call centers, that's a massive operational efficiency for all of our clients. If we can help retirees get their pensions through interacting with a Watson-powered AI chatbot, that is an enterprise use case where all of these technologies come into play.

現在讓我將其轉化為我們如何將其貨幣化。因此，我們的 AI 貨幣化主要集中在我談到的 16 萬億美元的生產力上，我們將在未來十年內實現這一目標。其中絕大部分來自企業自動化；當我說企業時，我把政府也包括在內。一些例子，如果你可以自動化快餐店的免下車和接單，這就是可能發生的事情的一個例子。如果我們能夠在每個呼叫中心獲得 40%、50%、60% 的偏轉率，這對我們所有客戶來說都是巨大的運營效率。如果我們可以通過與 Watson 支持的 AI 聊天機器人交互來幫助退休人員獲得養老金，那麼這就是所有這些技術都發揮作用的企業用例。

By the way, all my 3 examples are real clients where we are resulting in anywhere from hundreds to thousands of people, the efficiency for each of these clients. So that's how we get it. If I look inside IBM, how we do promotions, how we do people movement, how we begin to improve our quote to cash, how we improve our customer service and people ask complicated questions around triage of IT systems going down are all very real examples where we are improving client service and saving money all at the same time.

順便說一句，我所有的 3 個例子都是真實的客戶，我們在這些客戶中產生了數百到數千人，每個客戶的效率。這就是我們得到它的方式。如果我看看 IBM 內部，我們如何進行促銷、我們如何進行人員流動、我們如何開始改進我們的報價到現金、我們如何改進我們的客戶服務以及人們圍繞 IT 系統故障的分類提出複雜的問題都是非常真實的例子我們正在改善客戶服務並同時節省資金。

Our next question comes from Erik Woodring with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Erik Woodring。

I wanted to just touch on the Consulting business. Signings were very strong in the December quarter, up 17%. Your quarterly book to bill was an improvement from the September quarter. Can you maybe just, again, just step back and elaborate on the environment we're in, what you saw in 4Q that potentially stood out to you, where strength in signings is coming from, changes to contract duration? Maybe just double clicking on the Consulting business just to help us understand what gives you confidence to be kind of at the high end of your midterm model for 2023?

我只想談談諮詢業務。 12 月季度的簽約非常強勁，增長了 17%。您的季度帳單比 9 月季度有所改善。你能否再次退後一步，詳細說明我們所處的環境，你在第四季度看到的可能對你來說很突出的東西，簽約的力量來自哪裡，合同期限的變化？也許只是雙擊諮詢業務只是為了幫助我們了解是什麼讓您有信心成為 2023 年中期模型的高端？

Thanks, Erik, for the question. I'll take this. When we entered the fourth quarter, we had a pretty solid pipeline. And we talked about and reaffirmed mid-teens growth for Consulting for the year, which, as you know, is well above our model. But again, as I talked about on the previous question, we had made the investments in bringing in skill, capability, expanding ecosystem, strategic partnerships and acquisitions. But we saw that pipeline entering the quarter. We saw a very solid and pretty disciplined sales closure rate as we moved through the year. Now how did the year end that positions us for 2023? And let me just put some stats to really bring it home.

謝謝，Erik，提出這個問題。我要這個。當我們進入第四季度時，我們有一個非常穩固的渠道。我們討論並重申了今年諮詢業務的十幾歲中期增長，如您所知，這遠遠高於我們的模型。但是，正如我在上一個問題中談到的那樣，我們已經在引進技能、能力、擴大生態系統、戰略合作夥伴關係和收購方面進行了投資。但我們看到該管道進入本季度。在這一年中，我們看到了非常穩定且非常有紀律的銷售關閉率。現在，我們如何為 2023 年做好準備？讓我把一些統計數據真正帶回家。

Number one, ecosystem velocity, we saw continue to increase throughout the year of our strategic partnerships. I think we said in the prepared remarks, strategic partnerships, 1 grew revenue 25% in 2022 and was about 40% of our consulting base of business. That is up about 50% year-over-year. We have saw -- seen extensive acceleration. And by the way, in the fourth quarter, our signings growth, which delivered a 1.3 book to bill, our hyperscaler partnerships with Azure and what AWS, our signings were 2x. And our ISV portfolio with the likes of SAP, Salesforce, Adobe, we were up over 50% in signings. So our book of business and the partnerships, we have tremendous strength that's fueling our backlog, point #1.

第一，生態系統速度，我們在戰略合作夥伴關係的整個一年中看到了持續增長。我想我們在準備好的發言中說過，戰略合作夥伴關係 1 在 2022 年使收入增長了 25%，約占我們諮詢業務基礎的 40%。同比增長約 50%。我們已經看到 - 看到了廣泛的加速。順便說一下，在第四季度，我們的簽約數量增長了 1.3，我們與 Azure 和 AWS 的超大規模合作夥伴關係，我們的簽約數量是 2 倍。我們的 ISV 組合與 SAP、Salesforce、Adobe 等公司的簽約數量增加了 50% 以上。因此，我們的業務和合作夥伴關係，我們擁有巨大的實力，這加劇了我們的積壓，第 1 點。

Point #2, Red Hat. We continue to see acceleration of Consulting being the tip of the spear that's really driving the scale and adoption of our hybrid cloud platform and oh, by the way, is also dragging IBM technology and software. Since inception a little over 3 years, we signed $7.4 billion of business in Red Hat, tremendous strength and that, again, fuels our backlog for 2023. And then you look at full year, we grew both large transformational deals, and we grew small deals double digit, both sides. So it was pervasive across the board.

第 2 點，紅帽。我們繼續看到諮詢的加速是真正推動我們混合雲平台的規模和採用的長矛的尖端，哦，順便說一下，它也在拖累 IBM 技術和軟件。自成立 3 年多一點以來，我們在 Red Hat 簽署了 74 億美元的業務，這是巨大的實力，這再次助長了我們 2023 年的積壓。然後你看看全年，我們既有大型轉型交易，也有小規模交易交易兩位數，雙方。因此，它普遍存在。

So when we look at our backlog, we look at all of our indicators of our business on the realization of that model. We look on the acquisition portfolio and how it's scaling. We feel pretty confident about the high end of our high single-digit model in 2023. Oh, by the way, to Toni's question, at operating margins being accretive.

因此，當我們查看我們的積壓工作時，我們會查看我們在實現該模型時的所有業務指標。我們著眼於收購組合及其擴展方式。我們對 2023 年高個位數模型的高端非常有信心。哦，順便說一下，托尼的問題是，營業利潤率正在增加。

Our next question comes from Lisa Ellis with SVB MoffettNathanson.

我們的下一個問題來自 SVB MoffettNathanson 的 Lisa Ellis。

Maybe following on that, I had a broader question, Arvind, on the overall demand environment you're seeing. I think with earnings coming in from various enterprise tech players, so far, we're seeing a pretty wide range of signals about how the demand environment is shaping up for 2023. Can you just comment a bit on what you're seeing from your large clients, say, kind of relative to this past year?

也許在此之後，我有一個更廣泛的問題，Arvind，關於你所看到的整體需求環境。我認為，隨著來自各種企業技術參與者的收益，到目前為止，我們看到了關於 2023 年需求環境如何形成的廣泛信號。你能簡單評論一下你從中看到的情況嗎？大客戶，比方說，相對於去年？

Yes. Thanks, Lisa, for the question. Look, if I think about our overall client base, we were first really pleased that there wasn't much of a difference by geography. As I sort of go through it, Japan, India, Australia, the Middle East, Western Europe, the U.K. North America were really pretty strong in demand across. So I think, Lisa, if I break it down into the 2 portions around technology and consulting, what we are seeing is that most of our clients do believe that even if there are some, I'll call, the minor or different headwinds in 2023, they are going to emerge stronger. As they are to emerge stronger, that means they're all deploying technology to help offset wage inflation, cyber issues, supply chain challenges and all the demographic shifts, meaning there's just fewer skilled people to hire.

是的。謝謝，麗莎，這個問題。看，如果我考慮我們的整體客戶群，我們首先很高興地理上沒有太大差異。在我看來，日本、印度、澳大利亞、中東、西歐、英國和北美的需求確實非常強勁。所以我認為，麗莎，如果我把它分解成圍繞技術和諮詢的兩個部分，我們看到的是我們的大多數客戶確實相信，即使有一些，我會稱之為，輕微的或不同的逆風2023年，他們將變得更強大。隨著它們變得更強大，這意味著它們都在部署技術來幫助抵消工資通脹、網絡問題、供應鏈挑戰和所有人口結構變化，這意味著可僱用的技能人才越來越少。

Consequently, we're seeing them double down, and that is why we have focused on certain areas and certain partners, both for consulting and in technology. They all want to deploy automated ways to get from the front to the back. Maybe Salesforce and Adobe play a very strong role in that. They all want to leverage cloud technologies, so they can scale technology up to better handle client demand. Our partnerships with the hyperscalers play into that. They all want to leverage far more technology than they have before to counteract the wage inflation and other inflationary aspects. And what we do with Red Hat plays into that.

因此，我們看到他們加倍努力，這就是為什麼我們專注於某些領域和某些合作夥伴，包括諮詢和技術。他們都想部署自動化的方式從前端到後端。也許 Salesforce 和 Adobe 在這方面發揮了非常重要的作用。他們都想利用雲技術，這樣他們就可以擴展技術以更好地滿足客戶需求。我們與 hyperscalers 的合作夥伴關係發揮了作用。他們都希望利用比以前更多的技術來抵消工資通脹和其他通脹方面的影響。我們與 Red Hat 的合作正是在其中發揮了作用。

So I kind of see, Lisa, that all of our clients play into that. Now you've mentioned a wide spectrum from the people you're seeing recently. I think the reason that we are remaining in this optimistic frame of mind, we have no consumer business. I agree that our clients may have a consumer business, but we don't have that directly. And so I think, consequently, we might be seeing a little bit different subset of the economy than those who might have a large direct exposure to a consumer business.

所以我有點明白，麗莎，我們所有的客戶都參與其中。現在你提到了你最近見到的人的廣泛範圍。我認為我們之所以保持這種樂觀的心態，是因為我們沒有消費者業務。我同意我們的客戶可能有消費者業務，但我們沒有直接擁有。因此，我認為，因此，與那些可能直接接觸消費者業務的人相比，我們可能會看到一些不同的經濟子集。

Our next question comes from David Grossman with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 David Grossman。

So you had a very good transactional momentum in the Software business in the fourth quarter, and you provided some good high-level commentary in your prepared remarks about the business, and the broad-based growth may reflect many of those changes that you've been talking about in the go-to-market strategy and sales changes. That said, Arvind, can you talk specifically or identify any product-specific changes in software that you think may be driving that momentum and that may suggest your competitive positioning is shifting in any of those 3 non-Red Hat segments.

因此，第四季度軟件業務的交易勢頭非常好，您在準備好的有關該業務的評論中提供了一些很好的高級評論，基礎廣泛的增長可能反映了您所做的許多變化一直在談論進入市場戰略和銷售變化。也就是說，Arvind，你能否具體談談或找出你認為可能推動這種勢頭的軟件中任何特定於產品的變化，這可能表明你的競爭定位正在這 3 個非 Red Hat 細分市場中的任何一個發生變化。

And then just one other thing, just sorry about the 2-part question. But just for Jim, I just wanted to clarify with that working capital headwind in the fourth quarter that you talked about reverses in 2023.

然後還有一件事，對這個由兩部分組成的問題感到抱歉。但就吉姆而言，我只是想通過第四季度的營運資金逆風來澄清你談到了 2023 年的逆轉。

Yes. Thanks, David. Let me talk a little bit about the product capabilities and as you said, outside Red Hat called focus on automation, data, AI and cyber. If I look at those -- let's take automation. I'm really pleased with the progress we have made around an area I'll call AIOps. But if you think about, we made a couple of small acquisitions, Instana and Turbonomic, we built our own AIOps portfolio, and we're seeing tremendous pickup from that as our clients want to take out labor complexity but also want to optimize their overall IT infrastructure, hardware and software. They also want to have uptime that is now the talk about not just two nines and three nines but up to five nines. And they also want to worry about how to make sure some go to always on. And so I think our AIOps portfolio there really advantages us, and I believe we're in a unique position because we help our clients in an environment across multiple public clouds and on-premise, and with their private clouds in that space.

是的。謝謝，大衛。讓我談談產品功能，正如你所說，在 Red Hat 之外，專注於自動化、數據、人工智能和網絡。如果我看看那些——讓我們來看看自動化。我對我們在一個我稱之為 AIOps 的領域取得的進展感到非常高興。但如果你想一想，我們進行了幾次小型收購，Instana 和 Turbonomic，我們建立了自己的 AIOps 產品組合，我們看到了巨大的增長，因為我們的客戶希望消除勞動力的複雜性，但也希望優化他們的整體IT 基礎設施、硬件和軟件。他們還希望擁有正常運行時間，現在談論的不僅僅是兩個九和三個九，而是最多五個九。他們還想擔心如何確保一些人永遠在線。因此，我認為我們在那裡的 AIOps 產品組合確實對我們有利，而且我相信我們處於獨特的位置，因為我們在跨多個公共雲和內部部署的環境中幫助我們的客戶，並在該空間中使用他們的私有云。

If I think about data and AI, our focus on data fabric and allowing our clients to leverage the data wherever it is, not always moving it but allowing them to catalog it, leveraging AI deep inside our products is another example of where we have a unique capability. And third, if I look at cyber, we focus a lot on threat management. And if we think about how we can leverage the inputs from all kinds of sources in these days and people are really worried about all of the threats coming, whether from nation states or from just bad actors, then it allows them to leverage that portfolio better.

如果我考慮數據和人工智能，我們專注於數據結構並允許我們的客戶隨時隨地利用數據，而不是總是移動數據但允許他們對其進行編目，在我們產品的深處利用人工智能是我們擁有的另一個例子獨特的能力。第三，如果我看網絡，我們非常關注威脅管理。如果我們現在考慮如何利用各種來源的投入，而人們真的很擔心所有即將到來的威脅，無論是來自民族國家還是來自不良行為者，那麼它可以讓他們更好地利用這些投資組合.

Consequently, we're going to remain pretty focused on these areas. You should expect both organic and inorganic investment. And David, I can't help but say, we are giving our clients the ability to deploy these capabilities on multiple public clouds as well as on-premise. And I believe that does advantage them because it gives them a lot more flexibility and freedom than they might have from some other vendors.

因此，我們將繼續非常關注這些領域。您應該期待有機和無機投資。大衛，我忍不住要說，我們讓我們的客戶能夠在多個公共雲和內部部署這些功能。我相信這確實對他們有利，因為與其他供應商相比，這給了他們更多的靈活性和自由度。

Yes. I would just build on that, Arvind. I mean Software book of business today, it's an integral part of our hybrid cloud platform thesis. It is the foundation. We eclipsed $25 billion for the first time ever here in 2022, so over 40% of IBM's revenue and 2/3 of our EBITDA. So when you look at it, we are a hybrid cloud AI platform-centric company overall and Software is right at that course. So why that recurring revenue stream and the improvements we've been seeing throughout 2022? And as Arvind answered earlier, getting that back to a growing contribution not only helps the competitiveness and market share of our top line, but I think all of you understand the marginal dollar of that book of business is in the 90-plus percent range as we move forward.

是的。我會以此為基礎，Arvind。我的意思是今天的軟件商業書籍，它是我們混合雲平台論文的一個組成部分。這是基礎。 2022 年，我們的收入首次超過 250 億美元，佔 IBM 收入的 40% 以上和 EBITDA 的 2/3。因此，從整體上看，我們是一家以混合雲 AI 平台為中心的公司，而 Software 正走在這條道路上。那麼，為什麼我們在整個 2022 年看到了經常性收入流和改進？正如 Arvind 早些時候回答的那樣，將其恢復到不斷增長的貢獻不僅有助於我們的競爭力和市場份額，而且我認為你們所有人都明白該業務的邊際美元在 90% 以上的範圍內，因為我們前進。

So David, I think you also asked a question about clarification. Free cash flow growth, $10.5 billion about, up $1.2 billion year-to-year, above our model of $750 million. That will be driven based on the fundamental improvements of our underlying revenue growth and operating leverage and cash PTI, but there will also be, yes, a working capital efficiency contribution to our cash generation next year, really just the volume dynamics of what played out in the fourth quarter. We'll get that back.

所以大衛，我想你也問了一個關於澄清的問題。自由現金流增長，約為 105 億美元，同比增長 12 億美元，高於我們 7.5 億美元的模型。這將基於我們的基本收入增長和運營槓桿以及現金 PTI 的根本改善來推動，但是，是的，明年我們的現金產生也會有營運資本效率貢獻，實際上只是所發生的事情的數量動態在第四季度。我們會收回的。

Our last question will come from Kyle McNealy with Jefferies.

我們的最後一個問題將來自 Jefferies 的 Kyle McNealy。

Thanks very much for squeezing it in. This one is macro related as well, but it's pretty quick. It seems like some of the slowing macro's implied in your 2023 guidance, but I don't think you talked specifically about whether you're seeing anything specifically slowing. It sounded generally positive for you guys, even though there's a bit of a slowdown implied in the guidance.

非常感謝你把它塞進去。這個也是宏相關的，但它非常快。您的 2023 年指導方針似乎暗示了一些放緩的宏觀經濟，但我認為您沒有具體談到您是否看到任何特別放緩的事情。這聽起來對你們來說總體上是積極的，儘管指導中暗示了一些放緩。

Microsoft and F5 talked about a divergence between new business and new applications, seeing some growth versus renewal business, capacity expansions, cross-selling and things like that. Are you seeing a similar thing in terms of new applications slowing a bit and some of the kind of recurring and cross-selling capacity expansions holding up. How much of either of those is driving your lower end of mid-single-digit growth guidance for 2023? And kind of break it down if you can.

微軟和 F5 談到了新業務和新應用程序之間的差異，看到了一些增長與更新業務、容量擴展、交叉銷售等類似的事情。您是否看到類似的情況，即新應用程序的速度有所放緩，而某些經常性和交叉銷售能力的擴展卻停滯不前。其中有多少推動了您對 2023 年中個位數增長指導的下限？如果可以的話，把它分解一下。

Okay. Look, I think that first -- and I'll address your point on new application versus existing pretty directly. The point about the lower end of the mid-single digit is largely from the fact that Infrastructure segment will be a headwind going into 2023, whereas it was a tailwind in '22. I wouldn't read anything more than that into our low end as opposed to the middle of the range.

好的。看，我認為首先 - 我將非常直接地解決您關於新應用程序與現有應用程序的觀點。關於中位數下限的觀點主要是因為基礎設施領域將成為 2023 年的逆風，而在 22 年則是順風。與範圍的中間相比，我不會在我們的低端閱讀更多內容。

Now for us, I don't really see that. I see that our clients do want to do new development. Now from our perspective, if somebody is doing an expanded Salesforce deployment, I call that a new application. If somebody is doing a new application on Azure or if they are moving, well, they never really directly move. They always talk about refactoring, putting in new function, integrating with other applications they might have in their shop or that they buy as SaaS properties, we consider all that new development. And so for us, our consulting teams are largely doing that new development for our clients.

現在對我們來說，我真的不這麼認為。我看到我們的客戶確實想要進行新的開發。現在從我們的角度來看，如果有人正在進行擴展的 Salesforce 部署，我將其稱為新應用程序。如果有人在 Azure 上做一個新的應用程序或者他們正在移動，那麼，他們從來沒有真正直接移動過。他們總是談論重構、加入新功能、與他們商店中可能擁有的其他應用程序集成或他們作為 SaaS 屬性購買的應用程序，我們考慮所有這些新的開發。所以對我們來說，我們的諮詢團隊主要是在為我們的客戶進行新的開發。

And in that process, they tend to use OpenShift from Red Hat. They tend to use Red Hat Linux. They tend to use our AI automation. Our AI automation then surrounds all those things to make them much more resilient, much more robust, much more secure, and those are the capabilities we bring.

在這個過程中，他們傾向於使用 Red Hat 的 OpenShift。他們傾向於使用 Red Hat Linux。他們傾向於使用我們的人工智能自動化。然後，我們的人工智能自動化圍繞著所有這些東西，使它們更有彈性、更健壯、更安全，而這些就是我們帶來的能力。

So we are not really seeing that divergence, I will tell you straightforwardly, but there is likely a focus that in that new application, is it helping automate things more. Is it helping make things, I'll call it, straight through as opposed to with a lot of manual intervention? That is probably a bigger focus. Maybe we don't see it because we kind of call that play in late '21 because we kind of saw those things coming and becoming more important. And we decided to invest in them, both in technology and in consulting.

所以我們並沒有真正看到這種分歧，我會直截了當地告訴你，但在這個新應用程序中可能有一個重點，它是否有助於更多地自動化。它是否有助於製造東西，我稱之為，直接而不是大量的人工干預？這可能是一個更大的焦點。也許我們看不到它是因為我們在 21 世紀末稱之為比賽，因為我們看到這些事情正在發生並且變得越來越重要。我們決定在技術和諮詢方面對他們進行投資。

Patricia, with that being the last question, let me now make a couple of very quick comments to wrap up the call. 2022 was an important year for us. As Jim said, it was the first full year of the new IBM. The results we delivered reinforce our confidence in our strategy and our model. While there is always more to do, we are pleased with our position as we enter 2023, and I look forward to continuing this dialogue as we move through the year.

Patricia，這是最後一個問題，現在讓我發表一些非常快速的評論來結束電話會議。 2022 年對我們來說是重要的一年。正如 Jim 所說，這是新 IBM 的第一年。我們交付的結果增強了我們對我們的戰略和模型的信心。儘管總是有更多工作要做，但我們對進入 2023 年的立場感到滿意，我期待著在我們度過這一年時繼續這種對話。

Thank you, Arvind. Sheila, let me turn it back to you to close out the call.

謝謝你，阿文德。希拉，讓我把它轉回給你結束通話。

Thank you. Thank you for participating on today's call. The conference has now ended. You may disconnect at this time.

謝謝你。感謝您參加今天的電話會議。會議現已結束。此時您可以斷開連接。