International Business Machines Corp (IBM) 2022 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome, and thank you for standing by. (Operator Instructions) Today's conference is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time. Now I will turn the meeting over to Ms. Patricia Murphy with IBM. Ma'am, you may begin.

歡迎，並感謝您的支持。 （操作員說明）今天的會議正在錄製中。如果您有任何異議，您可以在此時斷開連接。現在我將把會議交給 IBM 的 Patricia Murphy 女士。女士，您可以開始了。

Thank you. This is Patricia Murphy, and I'd like to welcome you to IBM's Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Presentation. I'm here with Arvind Krishna, IBM's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Jim Kavanaugh, IBM's Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

謝謝你。我是 Patricia Murphy，歡迎您參加 IBM 的 2022 年第二季度收益報告。我和 IBM 董事長兼首席執行官 Arvind Krishna 一起來到這裡。 IBM 高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Jim Kavanaugh。

We'll post today's prepared remarks on the IBM investor website within a couple of hours, and a replay will be available by this time tomorrow.

我們將在幾個小時內將今天準備好的評論發佈在 IBM 投資者網站上，明天這個時候將提供重播。

Provided additional information to our investors, our presentation includes non-GAAP measures. For example, all of our references to revenue and signings growth are at constant currency. We have provided reconciliation charts for these and other non-GAAP measures at the end of the presentation and in the 8-K submitted to the SEC.

向我們的投資者提供了更多信息，我們的演示文稿包括非公認會計原則措施。例如，我們所有關於收入和簽約增長的參考都是按固定匯率計算的。我們在演示文稿結束時和提交給 SEC 的 8-K 中提供了這些和其他非 GAAP 措施的調節表。

Finally, some comments made in this presentation may be considered forward-looking under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements involve factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially. Additional information about these factors is included in the company's SEC filings.

最後，根據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》，本演示文稿中的一些評論可能被視為具有前瞻性。這些陳述涉及可能導致我們的實際結果出現重大差異的因素。有關這些因素的其他信息包含在公司提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中。

So with that, I'll turn the call over to Arvind.

因此，我將把電話轉給 Arvind。

Thank you for joining us today. In the second quarter, we drove solid results reflecting the investments and changes we have been making to execute our strategy. With this performance, we continue to deliver on our model of mid-single-digit revenue growth.

感謝您今天加入我們。在第二季度，我們取得了穩健的業績，反映了我們為執行戰略而進行的投資和改變。憑藉這一表現，我們繼續實現我們的中個位數收入增長模式。

Technology plays an important role in today's business environment. In fact, nearly every client I speak to believes that technology serves as a fundamental source of competitive advantage. It serves as both a deflationary force and a force multiplier and is especially critical as clients face challenges on multiple fronts from supply chain bottlenecks to demographic shifts.

技術在當今的商業環境中發揮著重要作用。事實上，幾乎所有與我交談過的客戶都認為，技術是競爭優勢的根本來源。它既是通貨緊縮的力量，也是力量的倍增器，在客戶面臨從供應鏈瓶頸到人口結構變化等多個方面的挑戰時尤其重要。

Given its ability to boost innovation, productivity, resilience and help organizations scale, IT has become a high priority in our company's budget. As such, there is every reason to believe technology spending in the B2B space will continue to surpass GDP growth.

鑑於它能夠促進創新、生產力、彈性和幫助組織擴展，IT 已成為我們公司預算中的重中之重。因此，完全有理由相信 B2B 領域的技術支出將繼續超過 GDP 增長。

With this demand backdrop, we are executing our hybrid cloud and AI strategy. We have made changes to our portfolio and focused investments in our offerings, technical talent, our ecosystem and go-to-market model.

在這種需求背景下，我們正在執行我們的混合雲和人工智能戰略。我們已經改變了我們的產品組合，並集中投資於我們的產品、技術人才、我們的生態系統和上市模式。

Demand for our solutions remains strong. We continue to have double-digit performance in IBM Consulting, broad-based trend in software. And with the z16 platform launch, our infrastructure business had a good quarter. By integrating technology and expertise from IBM and our partners, our clients will continue to see our hybrid cloud and AI solutions as a crucial source of business opportunity and growth.

對我們解決方案的需求依然強勁。我們在 IBM 諮詢領域繼續保持兩位數的業績，這是軟件領域的廣泛趨勢。隨著 z16 平台的推出，我們的基礎設施業務取得了不錯的季度業績。通過整合 IBM 和我們合作夥伴的技術和專業知識，我們的客戶將繼續將我們的混合雲和人工智能解決方案視為業務機會和增長的重要來源。

Let me now delve a little bit deeper into the progress and the execution of our hybrid cloud and AI strategy. Hybrid cloud is about offering clients a platform that can straddle multiple public clouds, private clouds and on-premise properties, all the way to the edge. Our platform based on Red Hat allows our clients to consume powerful software capabilities driven by open source innovation. Our software has been optimized to run on that platform and includes advanced data and AI, automation and the security capabilities our clients need. Our global team of consultants offers deep business expertise and cocreates with clients to accelerate their digital transformation journeys. Our infrastructure allows clients to take full advantage of an extended hybrid cloud environment.

現在讓我更深入地研究一下我們的混合雲和人工智能戰略的進展和執行情況。混合雲旨在為客戶提供一個平台，該平台可以跨越多個公共雲、私有云和本地屬性，一直到邊緣。我們基於紅帽的平台允許我們的客戶使用由開源創新驅動的強大軟件功能。我們的軟件已經過優化，可在該平台上運行，包括高級數據和人工智能、自動化以及客戶所需的安全功能。我們的全球顧問團隊提供深厚的業務專業知識，並與客戶共同創造以加速他們的數字化轉型之旅。我們的基礎架構允許客戶充分利用擴展的混合雲環境。

As a testament to the success of our strategy, we continue to increase adoption of our platform with over 4,000 hybrid cloud platform clients, including more than 250 added in this past quarter alone. Apart from working with a greater number of clients, those who adopt our platform tend to consume more of our solutions across software, consulting and infrastructure, expanding our footprint within those clients. Recently, clients such as [P&C], Barclays and Citi have chosen our hybrid cloud capabilities to unlock more business value and meet rapidly changing client demands.

作為我們戰略成功的證明，我們繼續增加我們平台的採用率，擁有超過 4,000 個混合雲平台客戶，其中僅在上個季度就增加了 250 多個。除了與更多的客戶合作之外，那些採用我們平台的人往往會在軟件、諮詢和基礎設施方面使用我們更多的解決方案，從而擴大我們在這些客戶中的足跡。最近，[P&C]、巴克萊銀行和花旗銀行等客戶選擇了我們的混合雲功能來釋放更多業務價值並滿足快速變化的客戶需求。

Organizations everywhere are also under intense pressure to fast track their digital transformation and harness the power of the data. With the world now creating 2.5 quintillion bytes of data each day, artificial intelligence, or AI, is the only way to process this enormous amount of data from hybrid cloud environments all the way to the edge. That is why AI adoption is steadily on the rise.

世界各地的組織也面臨著快速跟踪數字化轉型和利用數據力量的巨大壓力。現在世界每天創建 2.5 萬億字節的數據，人工智能或 AI 是處理從混合雲環境一直到邊緣的大量數據的唯一方法。這就是為什麼人工智能採用率穩步上升的原因。

According to a new study released by IBM last quarter, 35% of companies are now using some form of AI in their business. Many of those companies are using AI and automation to address demographic shifts and move their employees to higher value work. This is one of the many reasons we are investing heavily in both AI and automation. These investments are paying off.

根據 IBM 上季度發布的一項新研究，35% 的公司現在在其業務中使用某種形式的人工智能。其中許多公司正在使用人工智能和自動化來解決人口結構變化並將其員工轉移到更高價值的工作中。這是我們大力投資人工智能和自動化的眾多原因之一。這些投資正在獲得回報。

In addition to the strong revenue performance in automation and data and AI software, we recently received 2 important recognitions. We were named as a leader in the latest Gartner Magic Quadrant for APM and Observability and in The Forrester Data Fabric Wave for our Cloud Pak for data.

除了自動化、數據和人工智能軟件方面的強勁收入表現外，我們最近還獲得了兩項重要的認可。我們在最新的 Gartner APM 和可觀察性魔力像限以及針對數據的 Cloud Pak 的 Forrester Data Fabric Wave 中被評為領導者。

Over the last several quarters, I've highlighted the importance of the growing ecosystem of partners to our platform-centric strategy with leading firms like SAP, Salesforce, Adobe, Oracle, Microsoft and AWS. This quarter, we continue to expand and extend our partnerships. I'll expand on just 2.

在過去幾個季度中，我強調了不斷增長的合作夥伴生態系統對我們與 SAP、Salesforce、Adobe、甲骨文、微軟和 AWS 等領先公司的以平台為中心的戰略的重要性。本季度，我們將繼續擴大和擴展我們的合作夥伴關係。我將僅擴展 2 個。

We announced a strategic collaboration agreement with AWS to offer a broad array of our software catalog on AWS. This includes capabilities that span Automation, Data & AI, Security and Sustainability. Second, with Tech Mahindra, we launched synergy lounges to empower businesses with the innovation technologies and services for key industries such as telecommunications, manufacturing, banking, health care, energy and utilities. The first synergy lounge was established in Bengaluru with a focus on edge, 5G and software-defined networking solutions with hybrid cloud. This will be followed by the opening of 3 more centers in London, Seattle and Melbourne.

我們宣布與 AWS 達成戰略合作協議，在 AWS 上提供我們廣泛的軟件目錄。這包括跨越自動化、數據和人工智能、安全性和可持續性的能力。其次，通過Tech Mahindra，我們推出了協同休息室，為電信、製造、銀行、醫療保健、能源和公用事業等關鍵行業的企業提供創新技術和服務。第一個協同休息室在班加羅爾建立，專注於邊緣、5G 和軟件定義的混合云網絡解決方案。隨後將在倫敦、西雅圖和墨爾本開設另外 3 個中心。

Clients aren't just simply buying software or hardware. They're entering a relationship with the company that's going to help them navigate the future of technology. This is why innovation and our ability to invent what's next remains so important.

客戶不僅僅是購買軟件或硬件。他們正在與公司建立關係，這將幫助他們駕馭技術的未來。這就是為什麼創新和我們創造未來的能力仍然如此重要的原因。

Quantum is a great example of our commitment to advance the future of technology. Building on our progress of 127 qubit Quantum computer currently in our cloud, we have committed to demonstrate the first 400-plus qubit system before year-end. This will help us move forward towards our road map to deliver 1,000-plus qubit system next year and a 4,000-plus qubit system in 2025.

Quantum 是我們致力於推動技術未來發展的一個很好的例子。基於我們目前在雲中的 127 量子比特量子計算機的進展，我們承諾在年底之前展示第一個 400 多個量子比特系統。這將幫助我們朝著明年交付 1000 多個量子比特系統和 2025 年交付 4000 多個量子比特系統的路線圖前進。

One of the implications of quantum computing will be the need to change how information is encrypted. We are proud that technology developed by IBM and our collaborators has been selected by NIST as the basis of the next generation of quantum-safe encryption protocols.

量子計算的影響之一是需要改變信息的加密方式。我們很自豪 IBM 和我們的合作者開發的技術被 NIST 選為下一代量子安全加密協議的基礎。

In another example of innovation, our new z16 system became generally available in the second quarter. The z16 is designed for cloud native development; server security resilience; quantum-safe encryption; and includes an on-chip accelerator, which allows clients to reduce fraud within real-time transactions.

在另一個創新示例中，我們的新 z16 系統在第二季度全面上市。 z16 專為雲原生開發而設計；服務器安全彈性；量子安全加密；並包括一個片上加速器，允許客戶在實時交易中減少欺詐。

Given the importance of cybersecurity, in this past quarter, we also acquired Randori, a leading attack surface management and offensive cybersecurity provider. This builds on the recent acquisition of ReaQta and the launch of QRadar XDR. It's one of 2 acquisitions in the second quarter and over 25% in the last 2 years.

鑑於網絡安全的重要性，在上個季度，我們還收購了領先的攻擊面管理和攻擊性網絡安全提供商 Randori。這建立在最近收購 ReaQta 和推出 QRadar XDR 的基礎上。這是第二季度的兩次收購之一，在過去兩年中超過 25%。

Another major focus area across all stakeholders is ESG, which isn't just a regulatory requirement or about being a good corporate citizen. It's also a business opportunity. A poll conducted by the IBM Institute for Business Value shows that 50% of CEOs see sustainability as one of their highest priorities, and over 80% of CEOs believe their company's sustainability investments will improve business results and accelerate growth. To accomplish this, companies need to leverage AI and to turn the mountains of data they collect into sustainable action.

所有利益相關者的另一個主要關注領域是 ESG，這不僅僅是監管要求或成為優秀的企業公民。這也是一個商業機會。 IBM 商業價值研究院進行的一項民意調查顯示，50% 的 CEO 將可持續發展視為他們的首要任務之一，超過 80% 的 CEO 認為他們公司的可持續發展投資將改善業務成果並加速增長。為了實現這一目標，公司需要利用人工智能並將他們收集的海量數據轉化為可持續的行動。

SL Green Realty Corporation, Manhattan's largest office landlord, is a recent example. They are using Envizi, an IBM solution to manage their easy indicators across their extensive real estate operations, including energy use, carbon emissions and environmental and social responsibility metrics.

曼哈頓最大的寫字樓業主 SL Green Realty Corporation 就是最近的一個例子。他們正在使用 IBM 解決方案 Envizi 來管理其廣泛的房地產業務中的簡單指標，包括能源使用、碳排放以及環境和社會責任指標。

Let me wrap up by saying that given the strength of our portfolio, the need for our technology and expertise with the benefits we're yielding from any actions, we remain confident in our ability to deliver revenue in 2022 at the high end of our mid-single-digit model.

最後讓我說，鑑於我們產品組合的實力、對我們的技術和專業知識的需求以及我們從任何行動中產生的好處，我們仍然有信心在 2022 年中高端實現收入-個位數模型。

Now let me hand it over to Jim, who will give you more detail on our second quarter performance and add color on our expectations for the balance of the year.

現在讓我把它交給吉姆，他將為您提供有關我們第二季度業績的更多細節，並為我們對今年餘額的預期增添色彩。

Thanks, Arvind. I'll get right into the financial highlights. In the second quarter, we delivered $15.5 billion in revenue; $2.5 billion of operating pretax income, which is a margin of 16.2%; and operating earnings per share of $2.31. In the first half of the year, we generated $3.3 billion of free cash flow. Our revenue was up 16%. This includes nearly 5 points of incremental revenue from Kyndryl.

謝謝，阿文德。我將直接進入財務亮點。第二季度，我們實現了 155 億美元的收入； 25億美元的營業稅前收入，利潤率為16.2%；每股營業收益為 2.31 美元。今年上半年，我們產生了 33 億美元的自由現金流。我們的收入增長了 16%。這包括來自 Kyndryl 的近 5 個增量收入。

As always, we discussed revenue growth at constant currency. But given the focus on the sharply strengthening dollar, I'll mention that currency translation impacted our reported revenue by over 6 points of growth or $900 million. That's over $200 million more than the spot rates would have suggested 90 days ago.

與往常一樣，我們討論了以固定匯率計算的收入增長。但鑑於對美元大幅走強的關注，我會提到貨幣換算對我們報告的收入的影響超過 6 個百分點或 9 億美元。這比 90 天前的即期匯率建議高出 2 億多美元。

Today's IBM has a higher growth profile driven by our growth vectors of software and consulting. More than half of our annual revenue is recurring, with about 2/3 of that in high-value software. Software revenue this past quarter was up 12%; and Consulting, up 18%. Infrastructure performance, which reflects a good start to our z16 product cycle, was up 25%. Software and infrastructure each include about 7 points of growth from the commercial relationship with Kyndryl.

今天的 IBM 在我們的軟件和諮詢增長載體的推動下擁有更高的增長前景。我們年收入的一半以上是經常性收入，其中約 2/3 來自高價值軟件。上一季度的軟件收入增長了 12%；和諮詢，增長 18%。反映我們 z16 產品週期開局良好的基礎架構性能提高了 25%。軟件和基礎設施各包括約 7 個與 Kyndryl 的商業關係的增長點。

These results reflect the investments we've been making in innovation, our ecosystem and talent, all aligned to our strategic areas of hybrid cloud and AI. We integrate consulting and technology to deliver these hybrid cloud and AI solutions. Our platform approach not only benefits our clients but also provides an attractive economic model for IBM and our partners with a multiple of software and consulting revenue generated for every dollar of platform revenue. Our hybrid cloud revenue from our full stack capabilities across software, consulting and infrastructure was up 19% over the last year. It has grown to $21.7 billion or 36% of our total revenue.

這些結果反映了我們在創新、生態系統和人才方面的投資，所有這些都與我們的混合雲和人工智能戰略領域保持一致。我們整合諮詢和技術來提供這些混合雲和人工智能解決方案。我們的平台方法不僅有利於我們的客戶，而且還為 IBM 和我們的合作夥伴提供了一種有吸引力的經濟模式，每一美元的平台收入都會產生大量的軟件和諮詢收入。我們在軟件、諮詢和基礎設施方面的全棧能力帶來的混合雲收入比去年增長了 19%。它已增長到 217 億美元，占我們總收入的 36%。

Looking at our P&L metrics. Operating gross profit dollars were up driven by strong revenue performance in our high-value businesses. Our year-to-year gross margin decline reflects escalating labor and component costs. We're addressing this through pricing, though it takes some time to show up in our margin profile, especially in consulting. Our operating pretax income was up, and we expanded margin by 420 basis points. We had an operating tax rate of about 16.5%, which is up about 2 points versus last year, and our operating net income margin expanded 330 basis points.

查看我們的損益指標。由於我們高價值業務的強勁收入表現，營業毛利潤增加。我們的毛利率同比下降反映了勞動力和零部件成本的上升。我們正在通過定價來解決這個問題，儘管需要一些時間才能顯示在我們的利潤概況中，尤其是在諮詢方面。我們的營業稅前收入增加了，我們的利潤率擴大了 420 個基點。我們的營業稅率約為 16.5%，比去年增加了約 2 個百分點，我們的營業淨利潤率擴大了 330 個基點。

Let me comment on a few dynamics within our profit performance. Our pretax profit reflects the benefit from actions we've taken to streamline our operations and simplify our go-to-market model as well as profit contribution from incremental sales for the new commercial relationship post separation.

讓我評論一下我們利潤表現中的一些動態。我們的稅前利潤反映了我們為精簡運營和簡化上市模式所採取的行動所帶來的好處，以及分離後新商業關係的增量銷售帶來的利潤貢獻。

Our profit this quarter also reflects recent portfolio actions. At the end of June, we closed on the divestiture of our health care software assets, generating a pretax gain of about $230 million in the period. Mitigating that benefit to our overall profit results, we took charges to address stranded costs associated with the divestiture and absorbed operating losses related to the health business, together, over $75 million.

我們本季度的利潤也反映了近期的投資組合行動。 6 月底，我們完成了對醫療軟件資產的剝離，在此期間產生了約 2.3 億美元的稅前收益。為了減輕對我們整體利潤結果的影響，我們收取費用以解決與剝離相關的擱淺成本，並吸收與健康業務相關的運營損失，總計超過 7500 萬美元。

We also announced the orderly wind down of our Russian operations, resulting in incremental charges in the quarter. Together with the year-to-year loss business due to the wind down, Russia impacted our profit results by another roughly $100 million.

我們還宣布有序關閉我們的俄羅斯業務，導致本季度的費用增加。加上由於倒閉導致的逐年虧損業務，俄羅斯對我們的利潤結果造成了大約 1 億美元的影響。

I also want to comment on the impact of currency. I mentioned that over the last 90 days, we've dealt with a sharply strengthening dollar. We execute hedge programs that cover the majority but not all of the currency exposure. The combination of the rate and velocity of movement this quarter and the fact that we don't hedge 100% results in a currency impact to our profit and cash flow.

我還想評論一下貨幣的影響。我提到在過去的 90 天裡，我們已經處理了大幅走強的美元。我們執行涵蓋大部分但不是全部貨幣風險的對沖計劃。本季度的變動速度和速度以及我們沒有 100% 對沖的事實導致我們的利潤和現金流受到貨幣影響。

Turning to free cash flow. We generated over $2 billion in the quarter and $3.3 billion for the first half with good working capital performance. This first half free cash flow is about 33% of our full year expected range, consistent with the average of the last few years. I'll remind you the $1 billion plus of proceeds from the health divestiture is reflected in cash from investing activities versus in our free cash flow.

轉向自由現金流。我們在本季度創造了超過 20 億美元的收入，上半年創造了 33 億美元的收入，營運資金表現良好。上半年的自由現金流約為我們全年預期範圍的 33%，與過去幾年的平均水平一致。我會提醒您，健康資產剝離帶來的 10 億美元以上的收益反映在投資活動的現金中，而不是我們的自由現金流中。

In terms of uses of cash for the first half, we invested nearly $1 billion in acquisitions with 5 closed this year, and we returned $3 billion to shareholders in the form of dividends. This results in a June cash position of nearly $8 billion, which is up slightly from year-end. And our debt of just over $50 billion is down about $1.5 billion over the same period.

上半年現金使用方面，我們投資了近10億美元的收購，今年完成了5起，我們以分紅的形式向股東返還了30億美元。這導致 6 月份的現金頭寸接近 80 億美元，比年底略有上升。同期，我們剛剛超過 500 億美元的債務減少了約 15 億美元。

Turning to the segments. Software revenue grew 12%. This includes about 7 points from the Kyndryl software content. Growth was driven by our hybrid cloud and AI capabilities. Hybrid cloud revenue for the segment now represents $9 billion over the last year, up 23%.

轉向細分市場。軟件收入增長 12%。這包括來自 Kyndryl 軟件內容的大約 7 點。我們的混合雲和人工智能功能推動了增長。該部門的混合雲收入現在比去年達到 90 億美元，增長 23%。

Software subscription and support renewal rates were up again this quarter. This contributes to our solid and growing recurring revenue base, which represents about 80% of software. From a revenue category perspective, our software growth vector of Hybrid Platform & Solutions grew 9%. This includes about 1.5 points benefit from the Kyndryl commercial relationship.

本季度軟件訂閱和支持續訂率再次上升。這有助於我們穩固且不斷增長的經常性收入基礎，約佔軟件的 80%。從收入類別的角度來看，我們的混合平台和解決方案軟件增長向量增長了 9%。這包括約 1.5 分受益於 Kyndryl 商業關係。

We again drove pervasive growth across Red Hat, Automation, Data & AI and Security. Red Hat revenue all in grew 17%. Revenue growth was fueled by new adoption and expansion of RHEL and OpenShift as both solutions continue to take share. These key offerings address hybrid cloud requirements in industries like financial services, public sector and telecommunications, across environments and out to the edge.

我們再次推動了紅帽、自動化、數據和人工智能以及安全領域的普遍增長。紅帽的收入全部增長了 17%。 RHEL 和 OpenShift 的新採用和擴展推動了收入增長，因為這兩種解決方案繼續佔據份額。這些關鍵產品可滿足金融服務、公共部門和電信等行業的混合雲需求，跨越環境並一直延伸到邊緣。

Automation revenue was up 8%. Solid performance in both AI ops and management and integration demonstrates the importance of automation in the IT journeys of our clients. We had strength in offerings like Turbonomic and Instana for observability; Cloud Pak for Watson AIOps; and our modern integration platform, Cloud Pak for Integration.

自動化收入增長了 8%。人工智能運營、管理和集成方面的穩健表現證明了自動化在我們客戶的 IT 旅程中的重要性。在可觀察性方面，我們在 Turbonomic 和 Instana 等產品方面具有優勢；適用於 Watson AIOps 的 Cloud Pak；以及我們的現代集成平台 Cloud Pak for Integration。

Data & AI revenue grew 4%. This growth was led by demand for data fabric, data management and asset and supply chain management solutions. We also just expanded our Data Fabric portfolio with the acquisition of Databand.ai, which helps organizations with data observability.

數據和人工智能收入增長 4%。這種增長是由對數據結構、數據管理以及資產和供應鏈管理解決方案的需求帶動的。我們還剛剛通過收購 Databand.ai 擴展了我們的 Data Fabric 產品組合，幫助組織實現數據可觀察性。

Security revenue was up 5% with growth in threat management and identity as enterprises continue to adopt a Zero Trust security strategy and implement additional identity controls. We're continuing to invest in our security capabilities, having completed 2 acquisitions in the threat management space over the last few quarters.

隨著企業繼續採用零信任安全策略並實施額外的身份控制，安全收入隨著威脅管理和身份的增長而增長了 5%。我們繼續投資於我們的安全能力，在過去幾個季度完成了威脅管理領域的 2 次收購。

Across the 4 Hybrid Platform & Solution business areas, our annual recurring revenue, or ARR, is nearly $12.9 billion, up 8%.

在 4 個混合平台和解決方案業務領域，我們的年度經常性收入 (ARR) 接近 129 億美元，增長 8%。

Turning to our software value vector, transaction processing, revenue grew 19%, including 22 points from the Kyndryl content. We continue to have strong renewal rates for this mission-critical software and performed in line with our expectations this quarter.

轉向我們的軟件價值向量交易處理，收入增長了 19%，其中包括來自 Kyndryl 內容的 22 個點。我們繼續為這款關鍵任務軟件提供強勁的續訂率，並且本季度的表現符合我們的預期。

Looking at software profit. We delivered operating leverage given the solid revenue growth and new Kyndryl commercial relationship. Our pretax margin was up 4 points and keeps us on track for a full year software margin in the mid-20s.

看軟件利潤。鑑於穩健的收入增長和新的 Kyndryl 商業關係，我們實現了經營槓桿。我們的稅前利潤率上升了 4 個百分點，使我們在 20 年代中期保持全年軟件利潤率的軌道。

Moving on to Consulting. We again saw pervasive growth with double-digit revenue growth across all business lines and geographies. Revenue was up 18% compared to 8% growth a year ago. We maintained a solid book-to-bill ratio of 1.1 on a trailing 12-month basis as clients are choosing to co-create with IBM, trusting our deep industry expertise.

繼續諮詢。我們再次看到普遍增長，所有業務線和地區的收入均實現兩位數增長。與一年前的 8% 增長相比，收入增長了 18%。由於客戶選擇與 IBM 共同創造，相信我們深厚的行業專業知識，我們在過去 12 個月中保持了 1.1 的穩定訂單出貨比。

The expansion of our skills, capabilities and ecosystems are enabling us to capture demand as we drive adoption of our hybrid cloud platform and help clients with their digital transformations. Consulting's hybrid cloud revenue grew 32% over the last year to $8.6 billion. Momentum behind our Red Hat practice remains strong. We nearly doubled our Red Hat consulting revenue in the quarter and continued solid Red Hat bookings, which now exceeds $6 billion inception to date.

我們的技能、能力和生態系統的擴展使我們能夠在推動採用我們的混合雲平台並幫助客戶進行數字化轉型的過程中捕捉需求。諮詢公司的混合雲收入比去年增長了 32%，達到 86 億美元。我們紅帽實踐的動力依然強勁。本季度我們的紅帽諮詢收入幾乎翻了一番，紅帽預訂量繼續保持穩定，目前已超過 60 億美元。

Our strategic partnerships also contributed to our performance in the quarter. Revenue from these partnerships continue to grow solid double digits, led by Azure, AWS and SAP and Salesforce.

我們的戰略合作夥伴關係也為我們在本季度的表現做出了貢獻。在 Azure、AWS、SAP 和 Salesforce 的帶領下，這些合作夥伴的收入繼續以兩位數的穩定增長。

Turning to our lines of business. Business transformation grew 16%. Its clients look to IBM to help them transform critical workflows at scale. Growth in business transformation was pervasive and led by our offerings focused on customer experience transformation, data transformation and our SAP practices.

轉向我們的業務領域。業務轉型增長 16%。其客戶希望 IBM 幫助他們大規模轉變關鍵工作流程。業務轉型的增長無處不在，並由我們專注於客戶體驗轉型、數據轉型和 SAP 實踐的產品引領。

In technology consulting, where we architect and implement clients cloud platforms and strategies, revenue was up 23%. Cloud modernization and cloud application development led a significant portion of the growth, with on-prem modernization also contributing to the strong revenue performance in the quarter.

在技術諮詢領域，我們為客戶構建和實施雲平台和戰略，收入增長了 23%。雲現代化和雲應用程序開發在增長中佔很大比例，本地現代化也促成了本季度強勁的收入表現。

Application operations revenue grew 17%. Growth was solid across our cloud offerings, mitigated by declines in the on-prem space. In this business, we are optimizing the management of applications and providing cloud platform services required to run our clients' hybrid cloud environments.

應用程序運營收入增長 17%。我們的雲產品增長穩健，但因本地空間的下降而有所緩解。在這項業務中，我們正在優化應用程序的管理並提供運行客戶混合雲環境所需的雲平台服務。

Moving to consulting profit. Our pretax margin expanded 1 point as we deliver operating leverage and benefit from IBM's more streamlined G&A and go-to-market structure. Our consulting margins reflect the significant investments we have been making to capture demand and fuel our revenue growth. We continue to invest in our partner ecosystem, scale acquisitions and add skills.

轉向諮詢利潤。隨著我們提供運營槓桿並受益於 IBM 更精簡的 G&A 和進入市場的結構，我們的稅前利潤率增加了 1 個百分點。我們的諮詢利潤反映了我們為捕捉需求和推動收入增長所做的重大投資。我們將繼續投資於我們的合作夥伴生態系統、擴大收購規模並增加技能。

Consulting, which makes up well over half of IBM's workforce, is most impacted by the inflationary labor market and increasing labor cost as we bring and increase capacity. We are starting to capture the reality of these higher costs in our pricing. But given the time from contract signing to revenue realization, it's taking some time to see it in our margins.

諮詢部門佔 IBM 勞動力的一半以上，受通貨膨脹勞動力市場的影響最大，以及隨著我們帶來和增加產能而增加的勞動力成本。我們開始在定價中捕捉到這些更高成本的現實。但考慮到從合同簽署到收入實現的時間，我們需要一些時間才能看到它的利潤。

Turning to the Infrastructure segment. Revenue was up 25%, including about 7 points from the incremental Kyndryl content. Hybrid Infrastructure revenue grew 41%. And infrastructure support revenue grew 5%, including about 7 and 8 points of Kyndryl benefit, respectively.

轉向基礎設施部分。收入增長了 25%，其中包括來自增加的 Kyndryl 內容的約 7 個百分點。混合基礎設施收入增長了 41%。基礎設施支持收入增長 5%，其中 Kyndryl 收益分別約為 7 和 8 個百分點。

Within hybrid infrastructure, zSystems revenue was up 77%. This reflects solid execution around our z16 program, building on the momentum from z15. As Arvind mentioned, z16 brings the power of embedded AI at scale, cyber resilient security and cloud native development for hybrid cloud to our clients. We are seeing growth in new workloads like Linux and demand for AI capabilities like real-time fraud detection, leveraging the on-chip AI accelerator. Clients are investing in zSystems platform as an essential part of their hybrid cloud infrastructure.

在混合基礎架構中，zSystems 的收入增長了 77%。這反映了我們圍繞 z16 計劃的紮實執行，建立在 z15 的勢頭之上。正如 Arvind 所提到的，z16 為我們的客戶帶來了大規模嵌入式 AI 的強大功能、網絡彈性安全和混合雲的雲原生開發。我們看到 Linux 等新工作負載的增長以及對利用片上 AI 加速器的實時欺詐檢測等 AI 功能的需求。客戶正在將 zSystems 平台作為其混合雲基礎架構的重要組成部分進行投資。

Distributed infrastructure revenue grew 17% this quarter. This growth was led by storage, driven by both high-end storage tied to the z16 cycle and distributed storage. We also had good performance in high-end Power10. Just last week, we announced the expansion of our Power10 server family as we deliver flexible and secure infrastructure for hybrid cloud environments.

本季度分佈式基礎設施收入增長了 17%。這種增長是由存儲驅動的，由與 z16 週期相關的高端存儲和分佈式存儲驅動。我們在高端 Power10 也有不錯的表現。就在上週，我們宣布擴展 Power10 服務器系列，為混合雲環境提供靈活且安全的基礎架構。

Looking at infrastructure profit, pretax margin was up 4 points year-to-year, reflecting mix benefits from the growth in zSystems, mitigated by the impact of increased component cost and supplier premiums.

從基礎設施利潤來看，稅前利潤率同比增長 4 個百分點，這反映了 zSystems 增長帶來的綜合收益，但受到組件成本和供應商溢價增加的影響的影響。

Now let me take it back up to the IBM level. We've taken actions and made investments over the last couple of years to execute a platform-centric hybrid cloud and AI strategy. IBM is now a more focused, faster-growing and higher value company. And while there is always more work to do, we are confident in our ability to deliver sustainable growth.

現在讓我回到 IBM 級別。在過去的幾年裡，我們採取了行動並進行了投資，以執行以平台為中心的混合雲和人工智能戰略。 IBM 現在是一家更專注、發展更快、價值更高的公司。儘管總有更多工作要做，但我們對實現可持續增長的能力充滿信心。

Our first half results were solid. We continue to see constant currency revenue growth at the high end of the mid-single-digit model for the full year. And on top of that, we expect about 3.5 points of growth from the Kyndryl sales spread over the first 3 quarters.

我們上半年的業績很穩定。我們繼續看到全年中個位數模型的高端貨幣收入持續增長。最重要的是，我們預計前三個季度 Kyndryl 的銷售額將增長約 3.5 個百分點。

I mentioned the impact of currency to our 2Q results. With the significant movement of the U.S. dollar as compared to nearly every currency, at mid-July spot rates, currency translation will now be about a 6-point headwind to revenue growth for the year. That's a degradation of about $1.5 billion from April's rates with most of that incremental impact still ahead of us in the second half.

我提到了貨幣對我們第二季度業績的影響。與幾乎所有貨幣相比，美元大幅波動，按 7 月中旬的即期匯率計算，貨幣換算現在將對今年的收入增長造成約 6 個百分點的阻力。這比 4 月份的利率下降了約 15 億美元，而下半年的大部分增量影響仍在我們面前。

Currency is one unique issue we're dealing with. The other is the impact of exiting our Russia operation. Together, these are putting some pressure on our near-term results, and we now expect free cash flow of about $10 billion for the year. These are exogenous issues. Importantly, we feel good about the underlying fundamentals of our business. You see this in our segment expectations. Halfway through the year, there's no change to our full year view of software. We continue to expect constant currency revenue growth in line with our mid-single-digit model range, plus 5 to 6 points from sales to Kyndryl. We also remain on track to a software pretax margin in the mid-20s range for 2022.

貨幣是我們正在處理的一個獨特問題。另一個是退出我們在俄羅斯的業務的影響。總之，這些都給我們的近期業績帶來了一些壓力，我們現在預計今年的自由現金流約為 100 億美元。這些都是外在的問題。重要的是，我們對我們業務的基本面感覺良好。您可以在我們的細分市場預期中看到這一點。今年過半，我們對軟件的全年看法沒有變化。我們繼續預計與我們的中個位數模型範圍一致的恆定貨幣收入增長，加上從銷售到 Kyndryl 的 5 到 6 個點。我們還保持在 2022 年 20 年代中期的軟件稅前利潤率的軌道上。

Our IBM consulting revenue growth has been strong, and we continue to expect low double-digit revenue growth rate for the year, which is above our model. With continued investment in skills and a competitive labor environment, we now expect a consulting pretax margin of 9% to 10%, which is up over 1 point year-to-year. This reflects improving margin performance in the second half as we increase utilization of the resources we've added and price realization starts to flow to revenue.

我們的 IBM 諮詢收入增長強勁，我們繼續預計今年的低兩位數收入增長率高於我們的模型。隨著對技能的持續投資和競爭激烈的勞動力環境，我們現在預計諮詢稅前利潤率為 9% 至 10%，同比增長 1 個百分點以上。這反映了下半年利潤率表現的改善，因為我們增加了對我們添加的資源的利用，並且價格實現開始流入收入。

Our infrastructure revenue in any period reflects product cycle dynamics. We had a very strong launch of our z16 platform in the second quarter. This will drive infrastructure revenue performance above the model level for the year. On top of that, we're planning for about 5 to 6 points of revenue growth from the sales to Kyndryl in 2022. Despite some of the pressures from component cost increases and supplier premiums, we continue to see mid- to high-teens pretax margin for infrastructure for the full year.

我們在任何時期的基礎設施收入都反映了產品週期動態。我們在第二季度推出了非常強勁的 z16 平台。這將推動基礎設施收入表現高於當年的模型水平。最重要的是，我們計劃在 2022 年從對 Kyndryl 的銷售中實現約 5 至 6 個百分點的收入增長。儘管存在來自組件成本增加和供應商溢價的一些壓力，但我們繼續看到稅前中高水平全年基礎設施利潤率。

These segment revenue and margin dynamics yield about a 3.5 point year-to-year improvement in IBM's pretax margin for the full year. And we continue to expect a mid- to high-teens operating tax rate, which is a headwind to our profit growth. You'll recall that back in January, we expected a 40-60 first half/second half profit SKU. Now after a solid start to the year, our view hasn't changed, and we still see 60% of the full year profit in the second half.

這些部門的收入和利潤率動態使 IBM 全年的稅前利潤率同比提高了 3.5 個百分點。我們繼續預計中高稅率的營業稅率，這對我們的利潤增長是不利的。您會記得在一月份，我們預計上半年/下半年利潤 SKU 為 40-60。在今年開局良好之後，我們的觀點沒有改變，我們仍然看到下半年全年利潤的 60%。

Looking at the third quarter, we expect all in constant currency revenue growth in the high single-digit range and about a 2-point year-to-year improvement in operating pretax margin. I want to mention 2 specific items on the third quarter. First, at current spot rates, currency translation has increased to about an 8-point headwind to revenue growth, impacting our reported revenue, profit and cash. Second, we haven't had a zSystems product introduction in our large transactional second quarter in about 20 years. This unique timing, coupled with the strong start to the cycle, will result in a larger second to third quarter impact than typical seasonality. So to be clear, we expect a strong year-to-year growth in zSystems.

縱觀第三季度，我們預計所有貨幣收入均在高個位數範圍內增長，營業稅前利潤率同比增長約 2 個百分點。我想在第三季度提到 2 個具體項目。首先，以目前的即期匯率計算，貨幣換算對收入增長的阻力已增加至約 8 個百分點，影響了我們報告的收入、利潤和現金。其次，我們在大約 20 年的大型交易第二季度沒有推出 zSystems 產品。這一獨特的時機，加上週期的強勁開端，將導致第二至第三季度的影響比典型的季節性更大。因此，需要明確的是，我們預計 zSystems 將實現強勁的逐年增長。

In closing, these are interesting times, and we see technology as a way to help our enterprise clients capture today's opportunities and navigate challenges. We feel good about the strategy we are executing and the fundamentals of our business.

最後，這是一個有趣的時代，我們將技術視為幫助我們的企業客戶抓住當今機遇和應對挑戰的一種方式。我們對我們正在執行的戰略和我們業務的基本面感覺良好。

Patricia, now let's go on to the Q&A.

Patricia，現在讓我們繼續問答環節。

Thank you, Jim. Before we begin the Q&A, I'd like to mention a couple of items. First, supplemental information is provided at the end of the presentation. And then second, as always, I'd ask you to refrain from multipart questions. Operator, let's please open it up for questions.

謝謝你，吉姆。在我們開始問答之前，我想提幾個項目。首先，在演示結束時提供補充信息。其次，與往常一樣，我會要求您不要提出多部分問題。接線員，讓我們打開它來提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from Erik Woodring with Morgan Stanley.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的 Erik Woodring。

Just one for me here. Obviously, we saw a bit of a deceleration in the Red Hat business. So would just love to hear what you're hearing from them and any impact that you could share with us on the deferred that's been a part of this business for a while? So that's it.

這裡只給我一個。顯然，我們看到紅帽業務出現了一點減速。所以很想听聽您從他們那裡聽到的內容以及您可以與我們分享的對已成為該業務一部分的延期的任何影響？就是這樣了。

Thank you, Erik, for the question. Let me start off by just -- we feel very good about the Red Hat business, and we see very strong demand continuing. That said, we had said late last year that we expect growth in Red Hat to be in the upper teens. We continue to make that expectation. It's what we are going to continue with. Erik, I think I heard you start to say deferred revenue. That accounts for the bulk of what has been the difference in the growth rates and coming down from last year to this year, and I'll let Jim add a bit of color on to that.

謝謝你，埃里克，這個問題。讓我先從——我們對紅帽業務感覺非常好，我們看到非常強勁的需求仍在繼續。也就是說，我們去年年底曾說過，我們預計紅帽的增長將在十幾歲以上。我們繼續保持這種期望。這就是我們要繼續做的事情。埃里克，我想我聽到你開始說遞延收入。這解釋了從去年到今年的增長率差異和下降的大部分原因，我會讓吉姆為此添加一些色彩。

Yes, Erik, thanks. Just building on what Arvind said, 17% growth overall, taking share both in our core RHEL but also in our hybrid cloud platform-centric foundation, Red Hat OpenShift. By the way, Red Hat OpenShift, 4.5x now the revenue pre-acquisition. We had very strong bookings overall in Red Hat here in the quarter. Large deals were up 50%. Red Hat OpenShift bookings were up over 50%, which positions us very well with our backlog and a strong NRR. So we feel pretty good about our Red Hat portfolio overall.

是的，埃里克，謝謝。在 Arvind 所說的基礎上，總體增長 17%，在我們的核心 RHEL 和以混合雲平台為中心的基礎紅帽 OpenShift 中都佔有一席之地。順便說一句，紅帽 OpenShift 現在是收購前收入的 4.5 倍。本季度我們在紅帽的整體預訂量非常強勁。大宗交易增長了 50%。紅帽 OpenShift 的預訂量增長了 50% 以上，這讓我們在積壓工作和強大的 NRR 方面處於非常有利的地位。因此，我們對紅帽產品組合的整體感覺非常好。

Arvind indicated, our model is high teens. We delivered on that in the quarter. And by the way, the deferred revenue, we talked about entering January this year that, that was going to lessen throughout the year. And we're pretty much through that. I mean there's some small round-up here in the third quarter, but that's pretty much behind us. And remember, we're 3 years into this acquisition right now. and we couldn't be more pleased as we move forward.

Arvind 表示，我們的模特是青少年。我們在本季度實現了這一目標。順便說一下，遞延收入，我們談到了進入今年 1 月的那個，這將在全年減少。我們幾乎已經完成了。我的意思是在第三季度這裡有一些小的總結，但這已經遠遠落後於我們了。請記住，我們現在已經進行了 3 年的收購。隨著我們前進，我們感到非常高興。

Our next question will come from Amit Daryanani with Evercore.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Evercore 的 Amit Daryanani。

I guess my question is really on the free cash flow guide. One of the things that always comes up there -- I'm just going to look at the numbers right there. Revenue seems to be doing better than what most folks thought it was 90 days ago, I think at the start of the year event. But the free cash flow number, I think, it is $10 billion at this point, it was $10 billion to $10.5 billion initially. Maybe just talk on what are the puts and takes you see on free cash flow because that would be helpful to kind of understand? And then maybe just related to that, you've been very explicit on the FX headwinds on your top line. I'm assuming given how volatile this movement was, there might be an impact to your EPS and free cash flow. So maybe you can just flush out what's the picture on free cash flow and how is the FX impacting being below the top line? That would be helpful.

我想我的問題真的是關於自由現金流指南。總是出現的一件事——我只是看看那裡的數字。收入似乎比大多數人認為的 90 天前要好，我認為是在年初的活動中。但我認為，自由現金流數字是 100 億美元，最初是 100 億美元到 105 億美元。也許只是談談你在自由現金流上看到的看跌期權和收益是什麼，因為這有助於理解？然後也許只是與此相關，您對頂線的外匯逆風非常明確。我假設考慮到這一變動的波動性，可能會對您的每股收益和自由現金流產生影響。所以也許你可以把自由現金流的情況弄清楚，以及外匯對低於收入線的影響如何？那會很有幫助。

Yes, Amit, thank you very much. So let's take a moment to go through this because I think it's very important when you look at our 2 key measures of success. You talked about it. Revenue growth Arvind's put in place to run this company and free cash flow growth.

是的，阿米特，非常感謝。因此，讓我們花點時間來了解一下，因為我認為當您查看我們衡量成功的兩個關鍵指標時，這非常重要。你談到了它。收入增長 Arvind's 為運營這家公司和自由現金流增長而準備就緒。

We started out the year guiding at $10 billion to $10.5 billion. And now coming through the first half, we have now moved it to the low end of that guidance at about $10 billion.

我們年初的指導價為 100 億至 105 億美元。現在到了上半年，我們現在已經將其移至該指導的低端，約為 100 億美元。

Before I get into the puts and takes at the heart of your question, let's take a step back and put this into perspective. That $10 billion of free cash flow is growing $3.5 billion year-to-year, and it's even growing north of $2 billion against our 2021 IBM post-separation baseline that we gave to all of our investors. Remember, we're very transparent on the revenue growth of the Kyndryl contribution, and we have given each of you the pro forma baseline. But on either case, that is very strong free cash flow growth overall.

在我深入探討你問題的核心之前，讓我們退後一步，把它放在眼裡。這 100 億美元的自由現金流每年增長 35 億美元，與我們提供給所有投資者的 2021 年 IBM 分離後基線相比，它甚至增長到 20 億美元以上。請記住，我們對 Kyndryl 貢獻的收入增長非常透明，並且我們為你們每個人提供了備考基準。但無論哪種情況，這都是非常強勁的整體自由現金流增長。

There's 2 pieces that I talked about in the summary of the prepared remarks. Number one, given the unfortunate humanitarian crisis in the war in Russia, we made the right decision to exit that business here in the second quarter. And that was a very highly profitable business for us, and that's going to cost a couple -- $100 million worth of free cash flow and profit, by the way, in 2022. The second is what's been happening with the rate and pace of the U.S. dollar appreciation. And that right now, we are not immune to that as we move forward.

我在準備好的評論摘要中談到了兩件。第一，鑑於俄羅斯戰爭中不幸的人道主義危機，我們做出了正確的決定，在第二季度退出該業務。這對我們來說是一項非常有利可圖的業務，順便說一句，到 2022 年，這將花費一對夫婦——價值 1 億美元的自由現金流和利潤。美元升值。現在，我們在前進的過程中也不能倖免於難。

But let me talk a little bit about the go-forward free cash flow. We achieved $3.3 billion through the first half. That is actually slightly above our historical attainment over the last 5 years. And when we look at the second half, we see continued revenue growth. We see continued operating leverage out of our business. We've had good performance on our working capital management here through the first half. And given the volume dynamics and now our mainframe cycle, which we got off to a good start, should provide leverage. And then as I talked about in January, we do have a modest cash tax headwind -- or excuse me, tailwind for the year. So that kind of wraps up free cash flow overall.

但讓我談談前進的自由現金流。上半年我們實現了 33 億美元。這實際上略高於我們過去 5 年的歷史成就。當我們看下半年時，我們看到了持續的收入增長。我們看到我們的業務繼續發揮經營槓桿作用。上半年，我們的營運資金管理表現良好。考慮到交易量的動態以及現在我們的大型機週期，我們有了一個良好的開端，應該會提供槓桿作用。然後正如我在一月份談到的那樣，我們確實有一個適度的現金稅逆風 - 或者對不起，今年的順風。因此，這種方式總結了整體的自由現金流。

Our next question will come from Toni Sacconaghi with Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題將來自托尼·薩科納吉和伯恩斯坦。

I was wondering if you could just comment on whether you still expect $35 billion in free cash through 2024 and what the bridge for that is? And then you mentioned that revenue sequentially would be a little lighter than usual in Q3 because of the mainframe. I think you're typically down about $850 million. The mainframe is like $500 million to $700 million a quarter. So maybe it's a $100 million headwind. So is that sort of the dimension that you're thinking about for Q3? Or are there other factors at work?

我想知道您是否可以評論一下您是否仍然期望到 2024 年有 350 億美元的自由現金，以及為此的橋樑是什麼？然後你提到由於大型機的原因，第三季度的收入順序會比平時少一點。我認為你通常會損失大約 8.5 億美元。大型機一個季度大概是 5 億到 7 億美元。所以也許這是一個 1 億美元的逆風。那麼您正在為第三季度考慮的那種維度？還是有其他因素在起作用？

Toni, let me start by first addressing the $35 billion free cash flow question, and then I'll hand it to Jim. We are absolutely committed to our $35 billion total free cash flow cumulative over '22 through '24. And we still see very good signs, and we have confidence in delivering that number. And so with that, you said the bridge to that and then the 2Q to 3Q dynamics, I'll hand it to Jim for those.

托尼，讓我首先解決 350 億美元的自由現金流問題，然後交給吉姆。我們絕對致力於在 22 到 24 年間累計實現 350 億美元的總自由現金流。我們仍然看到非常好的跡象，我們有信心實現這個數字。有了這個，你說的橋樑，然後是 2Q 到 3Q 的動態，我會把它交給 Jim。

Yes. Thanks, Toni. If you go back to what I said in the prepared remarks, we typically -- I think the number is actually about $1 billion sequentially in revenue, Toni, overall. But we've actually given pretty explicit guidance on third quarter. We said that we were going to be all in high single digit at constant currency here in the second quarter. So let me address your question from that dynamic because we gave -- we've given that explicit quarter-to-quarter and what's going to happen to constant currency total revenue.

是的。謝謝，托尼。如果你回到我在準備好的評論中所說的話，我們通常 - 我認為這個數字實際上是大約 10 億美元的收入，Toni，總體而言。但我們實際上已經在第三季度給出了非常明確的指導。我們說過，我們將在第二季度按固定貨幣匯率保持高個位數。因此，讓我從這種動態中解決您的問題，因為我們已經給出了明確的季度季度以及不變貨幣總收入會發生什麼。

So if you look at second quarter, we delivered mid-teens. By the way, I wouldn't make the point -- that is the strongest constant currency growth that we've had in 20 years in this company, well above our mid-single-digit model and an acceleration from second quarter. By the way, acceleration in revenue growth, acceleration in operating profit margin of 420 basis points and acceleration in free cash flow. But if you look at constant currency, we're going from mid-teens in second quarter to high single digit. Let me call that 9% to 10%. That's about 6 points worth of what I'll call "deceleration." Two points right off the bat is coming from our health care software asset divestiture. We closed that at the end of June.

因此，如果您查看第二季度，我們交付了十幾歲的孩子。順便說一句，我不會指出這一點——這是我們在這家公司 20 年來最強勁的恆定貨幣增長，遠高於我們的中個位數模型和第二季度的加速增長。順便說一句，收入增長加速，營業利潤率加速 420 個基點，自由現金流加速。但如果你看一下固定貨幣，我們將從第二季度的十幾歲中期變成高個位數。讓我稱之為 9% 到 10%。這大約相當於我所說的“減速”的 6 分。兩點直接來自我們的醫療保健軟件資產剝離。我們在六月底關閉了它。

That's about $200 million a quarter. That's 2 points of the 6. The remaining 4 points is the dynamic of us for the first time in 20 years coming out with a new mainframe cycle in a highly-seasonal transactional quarter of second quarter. We did extremely well. Remember, 90 days ago, we took up our second quarter revenue guidance by $200 million versus the normal seasonality. We actually beat that in the second quarter.

這大約是每季度 2 億美元。這是 6 分中的 2 分。剩下的 4 分是我們 20 年來第一次在第二季度的高度季節性交易季度推出新的大型機週期。我們做得非常好。請記住，90 天前，我們將第二季度的收入指引與正常的季節性相比增加了 2 億美元。我們實際上在第二季度擊敗了它。

Now when you look at second half and get into third quarter, I think it's imprudent in this environment for us only to guide at what a normal cycle would be. And given the normal cycle, that's going to cost us about 4 points in a 2Q to 3Q given the announcement in the second quarter. And I'll wrap it up just saying that, Toni, I talked about upfront that we still see 40% to 60% SKU in our operating profit for the year. That hasn't changed since January. This is really a dynamic between the third quarter and the fourth quarter now given how we announced the new Z cycle, which we're very excited about here in the second half.

現在，當您查看下半年並進入第三季度時，我認為在這種環境下，我們只指導正常的周期是不謹慎的。考慮到正常週期，考慮到第二季度的公告，這將使我們在第二季度到第三季度損失大約 4 個百分點。最後我要說的是，托尼，我預先談到了我們今年的營業利潤仍然有 40% 到 60% 的 SKU。自一月份以來，這種情況沒有改變。鑑於我們如何宣布新的 Z 週期，這確實是第三季度和第四季度之間的動態，我們在下半年對此感到非常興奮。

Our next question comes from Wamsi Mohan with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Wamsi Mohan。

Arvind, I know you left your constant currency guide unchanged for the year, but it would be helpful to get some color maybe on what is tracking a bit better or worse versus your expectations. And if I could, Jim, can you help sort through the PTI change year-over-year in the second half of the year? It seems like you had significant improvement in PTI, 400-plus basis points in the second quarter. You're guiding to about 200 basis points in the third quarter. Does it mean that there is a catch-up of sort of PTI in the fourth quarter? Or is this -- and how much of that is FX versus mainframe timing-related? Because you alluded to both of those when you were talking about the revenue impact.

Arvind，我知道您今年保持不變的貨幣指南不變，但如果您了解與您的預期相比更好或更差的情況，可能會有所幫助。如果可以的話，Jim，你能幫我解決下半年 PTI 的同比變化嗎？看來您的 PTI 有顯著改善，第二季度提高了 400 多個基點。你在第三季度指導到大約 200 個基點。這是否意味著第四季度 PTI 出現了追趕？或者這是 - FX 與大型機時間相關的比例有多少？因為您在談論收入影響時提到了這兩個方面。

Great. So Wamsi, let me address the first part of your question. We had very balanced performance in constant currency across geographies and actually across the different businesses. Now because of currency, the actual performance will be different in different geographies, but double-digit performance in the Americas, in Europe as well as in Asia Pacific.

偉大的。那麼Wamsi，讓我來談談你問題的第一部分。我們在不同地區以及實際上在不同業務中的固定貨幣表現非常平衡。現在由於貨幣的原因，不同地區的實際表現會有所不同，但在美洲、歐洲和亞太地區都有兩位數的表現。

Jim laid out the numbers on the different business performances. He talked about at constant currency, 12% in software, 18% in consulting, 19% in infrastructure. Those are really strong performances, I believe. As we go forward, you should expect to see us maintain, and we said, we talked about we'll remain in the mid-single digits on software. We will get towards the low end of double digits in consulting, which is actually up from our previous high single-digit margin, and infrastructure will benefit from the Z cycle. So all in, that's very balanced across the portfolio and across the geographies, and that then contributes towards our confidence in the revenue profile for the rest of the year.

吉姆列出了不同業務表現的數字。他談到了固定匯率，軟件佔 12%，諮詢佔 18%，基礎設施佔 19%。我相信這些都是非常強大的表現。隨著我們前進，您應該期望看到我們保持不變，我們說過，我們談到我們將在軟件方面保持在中個位數。我們將在諮詢領域接近兩位數的低端，這實際上高於我們之前的高個位數利潤率，基礎設施將受益於 Z 週期。總而言之，這在整個投資組合和各個地區都非常平衡，這有助於我們對今年剩餘時間的收入狀況充滿信心。

Yes, Wamsi, thanks for the question. Let me give you a step back from an overall perspective, and then I'll come into the third quarter. We maintained the guidance to your question about high single-digit -- or excuse me, high end of our mid-single-digit revenue growth before the incremental Kyndryl contribution for the year. Arvind just went through the portfolio dynamics of that.

是的，Wamsi，謝謝你的提問。讓我從整體的角度給你退一步，然後我會進入第三季度。在今年增加 Kyndryl 貢獻之前，我們保持了對您關於高個位數的問題的指導——或者對不起，我們的中個位數收入增長的高端。 Arvind 剛剛經歷了投資組合的動態。

By the way, the currency change that now we expect about 6 points impact beyond that constant currency strong performance, that went up from about 3 to 4 points 90 days ago. So that's about $1.5 billion. I've seen some people quoting $3.5 billion. It's about $1.5 billion overall change from what we said here in April. But with that revenue growth, we expect about $10 billion of free cash flow and operating profit margins up a strong 350 basis points year-over-year.

順便說一句，現在我們預計大約 6 個點的貨幣變化影響超過了 90 天前從大約 3 個點上升到 4 個點的恆定貨幣強勁表現。所以這大約是15億美元。我見過一些人報價 35 億美元。與我們 4 月份所說的相比，總體變化約為 15 億美元。但隨著收入的增長，我們預計約 100 億美元的自由現金流和營業利潤率將同比強勁增長 350 個基點。

When you look at that by segment, we really haven't changed our software segment. We feel pretty comfortable and confident in our first half trajectory that we're still going to grow mid-single digit overall in software, operating margins approaching mid-20s. Remember, that's 5 to 6 points of an operating margin. Infrastructure segment, we still think, given the product cycle dynamics, it will be well in excess of its model and have operating margins around mid- to high teens. And then consulting, we see strong demand in consulting. We took up our model on revenue growth 90 days ago, and now that's low double digit. And our margin now, we took down to [$9 billion] to [$10 billion]. That's the one change that's happening.

當您按部分查看時，我們確實沒有改變我們的軟件部分。我們對上半年的發展軌跡感到非常舒服和自信，我們仍將在軟件方面整體增長中個位數，營業利潤率接近 20 年代中期。請記住，這是營業利潤率的 5 到 6 個點。我們仍然認為，考慮到產品週期動態，基礎設施部分將遠遠超過其模型，並且運營利潤率約為中高水平。然後是諮詢，我們看到諮詢需求強勁。我們在 90 天前採用了我們的收入增長模型，現在是低兩位數。而我們現在的利潤，我們降低到 [90 億美元] 到 [100 億美元]。這就是正在發生的變化。

And what we're seeing is it's taking longer for our price optimization to play through to our margin. We still expect margin increase year-over-year for the full year between that $9 billion and $10 billion absolute PTI. And that will actually be -- as we wrap on easier comparison in the second half, that will be some nice margin accretion here in our consulting business in the second half overall.

我們看到的是，我們的價格優化需要更長的時間才能發揮到我們的利潤。我們仍預計全年利潤將在 90 億美元至 100 億美元的絕對 PTI 之間同比增長。這實際上是 - 當我們在下半年進行更容易的比較時，這將是我們下半年整體諮詢業務的一些不錯的利潤增長。

Now third quarter, similar to how I answered Toni's question on revenue growth overall, our operating margins are typically flat quarter-to-quarter. When you look at the dynamics of mainframe coming out for the first time in 20 years in a highly-seasonal transactional quarter and you look at then a prudent guidance on the third quarter, that is about a 4-point margin impact. And by the way, our third quarter, we guided to be up 2. So when you look at the dynamics, it's entirely even more so driven by the mainframe dynamics. And to your question, Wamsi, that comes back to us here in the fourth quarter, so we'll just have a very different SKU given the new introduction in the second quarter.

現在是第三季度，與我回答托尼關於整體收入增長的問題類似，我們的營業利潤率通常按季度持平。當您查看大型機在季節性交易季度中 20 年來首次出現的動態時，您會看到對第三季度的審慎指導，這大約是 4 個百分點的利潤率影響。順便說一句，我們的第三季度，我們引導上升 2。所以當你看動態時，它完全是由大型機動態驅動的。對於你的問題，Wamsi，這在第四季度回到了我們這裡，所以我們將在第二季度推出新的 SKU，這將是一個非常不同的 SKU。

Our next question will come from Brian Essex with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題將來自高盛的 Brian Essex。

Jim, I was wondering if you could -- I appreciate the comments on the consulting side of the business. I was wondering if you could dig in a little bit there. I appreciate kind of the pricing dynamics you discussed. But I think if we look at this from both the demand side and the supply side, could you share any thoughts on what you're seeing if there's -- if anything is changing there? So from the supply side, hiring, attrition, wage inflation changing or stabilizing. On demand side, I noticed that it's great to see the improvement in constant currency growth sequentially. Nice to see the acceleration, but it looks like business transformation moderated a little bit while we have improvement in technology consulting and application operations. So maybe if we could walk through supply dynamics and the demand dynamics to see what's changing within that business and what's driving your confidence in the performance for the rest of the year?

吉姆，我想知道你是否可以——我很欣賞關於業務諮詢方面的評論。我想知道你是否可以在那裡挖一點。我很欣賞你討論的定價動態。但我認為，如果我們從需求方和供應方兩方面來看，你能否分享一下你所看到的任何想法——如果那裡有任何變化？因此，從供應方面來看，招聘、人員流失、工資通脹正在發生變化或趨於穩定。在需求方面，我注意到很高興看到連續貨幣增長的改善。很高興看到加速，但看起來業務轉型略有放緩，而我們在技術諮詢和應用程序運營方面有所改進。因此，也許我們可以通過供應動態和需求動態來了解該業務的變化以及您對今年餘下時間業績的信心是什麼？

Sure, Brian. Thanks for the question. Great question. So let's take a minute here to go through this, right? We continue -- I'm going to start with the demand side of the equation because in a human capital-based business, the way we manage this is our source of cost, our value ROI indicators, the human capital to go drive that demand and capture it. So we continue to see a strong demand profile, and we're capturing it by raising our guidance here and seeing the accelerated consulting performance in the quarter, up 18%, by the way, on a plus 8% last year overall. So I think that's driven by what Arvind has been talking about, and that is the value of technology being a sustainable competitive advantage in this environment as clients in every industry are moving and accelerating their digital transformation and journey in the cloud.

當然，布賴恩。謝謝你的問題。好問題。所以讓我們在這里花一點時間來了解一下，對吧？我們繼續——我將從等式的需求方面開始，因為在以人力資本為基礎的企業中，我們管理這方面的方式是我們的成本來源、我們的價值投資回報率指標、推動需求的人力資本並捕獲它。因此，我們繼續看到強勁的需求概況，我們通過提高我們的指導來捕捉它，並看到本季度的諮詢業績加速增長，順便說一句，增長了 18%，而去年總體增長了 8%。因此，我認為這是由 Arvind 一直在談論的內容推動的，這就是技術在這種環境中成為可持續競爭優勢的價值，因為每個行業的客戶都在移動和加速他們的數字化轉型和雲之旅。

Consulting is also a very integral part to our hybrid cloud platform thesis. I've talked every quarter about being the tip of the spirit to drive the scale adoption of our hybrid cloud platform and pull through IBM's technology overall. So we saw this. If you remember, dial back a year ago, we were entering second half '21 in a very different dynamic coming off of the pandemic. And I think Arvind was very explicit about the demand indicators that we saw that we were going to take a conscious strategy to now I'm on your supply side to invest in skills and capabilities, in ecosystem expansion and in acquisitions because we saw the robust demand growth that was going to be out there.

諮詢也是我們混合雲平台論文不可或缺的一部分。我每個季度都談到要成為推動混合雲平台規模採用並全面推動 IBM 技術的精神風向標。所以我們看到了這個。如果您還記得，請回撥一年前，我們正進入 21 年下半年，大流行後的情況截然不同。而且我認為 Arvind 非常明確地說明了我們看到的需求指標，我們將採取有意識的策略到現在需求增長將在那裡。

And I think we've been capitalizing on that growing consistent double digit. And by the way, another solid signings quarter with the trailing 12-month book-to-bill north of 1.1, we feel pretty good even as we enter the second half. But you take that conscious strategy of driving incremental skill capability capacity on the supply side and then you couple that with a highly-inflationary environment that started to play out in the second half, and you see that, that's been impacting our gross profit margins.

我認為我們一直在利用不斷增長的兩位數。順便說一句，又一個穩定的簽約季度，過去 12 個月的訂單出貨比高於 1.1，即使進入下半場，我們也感覺很好。但是你採取了有意識的戰略，即在供應方面推動增加技能能力，然後將其與下半年開始出現的高通脹環境結合起來，你會看到，這一直在影響我們的毛利率。

And we talked about as we came into 2022 that we were going to go take the appropriate actions around our price optimization but that, that would take time to get rolled through our P&L, and that's what we kind of expect in the second half of this year. So when we look at all in, demand still see solid. The supply side of the equation, we've been optimized with a very disciplined, strategic investment process. And when we look at second half, we are looking at: one, easier comps; two, scaling the acquisitive accretion of our acquisitions, where actually we saw some good green shoots here in the second quarter; three, getting effective increase in utilization of our capacity; and four, price optimization continue to play through. So we saw nice improvement in our price margins that will play out in the second half as we move forward. So hopefully, that gets you a little perspective.

我們談到進入 2022 年時，我們將圍繞我們的價格優化採取適當的行動，但這需要時間才能通過我們的損益表，這就是我們在下半年的預期年。因此，當我們全面觀察時，需求仍然穩定。在等式的供應方面，我們已經通過非常嚴格的戰略投資流程進行了優化。當我們看下半場時，我們正在看：一，更容易的比賽；第二，擴大我們收購的收購增長，實際上我們在第二季度看到了一些好的萌芽；三、有效提高產能利用率；四、價格優化繼續發揮。所以我們看到我們的價格利潤率有了很大的改善，隨著我們的前進，這將在下半年發揮作用。所以希望這能讓你有一點看法。

Our next question will come from Kyle McNealy with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題將來自凱爾麥克尼利和傑富瑞。

So the strengthening dollar generally comes with a translation impact but also some demand destruction in nondollar-denominated markets. So are you able to size how much that demand-related impact might be, which would actually make your reiterated guidance for the high end of your mid-single-digit range for the full year for the core look even a bit better? Also connected to that, what is your sense if you have some perspective on how well international customers are positioned to be able to absorb the currency fluctuations?

因此，美元走強通常會帶來轉換影響，但也會對非美元計價的市場造成一些需求破壞。那麼，您是否能夠確定與需求相關的影響可能有多大，這實際上會使您重申的全年核心中個位數範圍的高端指導看起來更好一些？同樣與此相關的是，如果您對國際客戶在多大程度上能夠吸收貨幣波動有所了解，您有何看法？

Okay, Kyle. Thank you. I'll take this, Arvind. Let me spend a few minutes on currency since it seems to be a theme here across the questions and really how we manage it within our business and how it impacts our business model. So while we have a robust hedging program, as I indicated earlier, we're not immune over the long term, the currency impacts, especially when currencies move at the rate, breadth and magnitude that we've seen.

好的，凱爾。謝謝你。我會接受這個的，阿文德。讓我花幾分鐘討論一下貨幣，因為它似乎是貫穿問題的一個主題，以及我們如何在業務中管理它以及它如何影響我們的業務模式。因此，儘管我們有一個強有力的對沖計劃，正如我之前指出的那樣，但從長期來看，我們並不能倖免於貨幣影響，尤其是當貨幣以我們所看到的速度、廣度和幅度波動時。

Let me give you some stats as we've been going through here in the month of June and the early part of July. One, the U.S. dollar index is up 13% year-to-date, a 20-year high against the euro, 25-year high against the yen. The velocity of the strengthening is the sharpest that we've seen in over a decade. And it's been a broad-based dollar story, as you all know. All the currencies we hedge, over half of them are down double digits against the U.S. dollar this year. So it's kind of, I would say, "unprecedented" in what we've seen in the rate, the breadth of magnitude.

讓我給你一些統計數據，因為我們在 6 月和 7 月初在這裡經歷過。一、美元指數今年迄今上漲13%，兌歐元創20年新高，兌日元創25年新高。加強的速度是我們十年來見過的最快的。眾所周知，這是一個基礎廣泛的美元故事。我們對沖的所有貨幣，其中一半以上今年兌美元匯率都下跌了兩位數。所以，我想說，在我們所看到的速度和幅度上，這是“前所未有的”。

Now to your question, Kyle. Our business profile, we operate in 170 countries around the world. That's in excess of over 100 currencies. The strong dollar definitely has an impact. And to your point, from an absolute revenue profile, I would agree with you completely. It even makes our constant currency revenue growth guidance even stronger in us capturing what's happening in the marketplace with regards to that acceleration of digitization and transformation and journey to cloud.

現在回答你的問題，凱爾。我們的業務概況，我們在全球 170 個國家開展業務。這超過了 100 多種貨幣。強勢美元肯定會產生影響。就您的觀點而言，從絕對收入情況來看，我完全同意您的看法。它甚至使我們的恆定貨幣收入增長指導更加強大，因為我們捕捉到了市場上正在發生的關於加速數字化和轉型以及雲之旅的情況。

But our robust hedging program, there's 2 important points I'd like to make. Number one, we don't hedge 100 currencies. One, it's not economically viable; and two, you can't hedge revenue per GAAP accounting. You can only hedge where you have cash proxies in countries. So we only hedge, give or take, about 35 currencies around the world out of the 100 plus that we're in. And also important, if not more important, we only hedge 12 months out. We don't do multiyear hedging in this business. We're not speculative.

但是我們強大的對沖計劃，我想提出兩個重要的觀點。第一，我們不會對沖 100 種貨幣。一，它在經濟上不可行；第二，您不能按照 GAAP 會計對沖收入。您只能對沖您在國家/地區擁有現金代理的地方。因此，我們只對沖、給予或接受全球 100 多種貨幣中的大約 35 種貨幣。同樣重要的是，如果不是更重要的話，我們只對沖 12 個月。我們不會在這項業務中進行多年對沖。我們不是投機的。

So when you look at the lasting relevance of a U.S. dollar appreciation, eventually, what hedging does is, it mitigates volatility in the near term. It does not eliminate currency. It allows you time to address your business model for price, for source, for labor pools and for cost structures.

因此，當您看到美元升值的持久相關性時，最終，對沖所做的是，它在短期內減輕了波動性。它不會消除貨幣。它讓您有時間針對價格、來源、勞動力資源和成本結構解決您的業務模型。

Now also important, and this is where you see the dynamics playing out in our business model. Currency impacts a human capital-based business, very different than a product-based business, and I've talked about this many times over the years. In a human capital-based business, if you think about it, a large portion of your cost structure is a natural hedge because it's in local currency. Very different in a product-based business where a large portion of your cost structure is U.S. dollar-denominated. So as the dollar at rate and pace and magnitude appreciates, it has a disproportional impact on our high-value, product-based businesses, read that, software and infrastructure. And you saw that play on the second quarter at the gross margin level.

現在也很重要，這就是您在我們的商業模式中看到動態的地方。貨幣影響基於人力資本的業務，與基於產品的業務截然不同，多年來我已經多次談到這一點。在以人力資本為基礎的企業中，如果您考慮一下，您的成本結構的很大一部分是自然對沖，因為它是以當地貨幣計算的。在以產品為基礎的業務中，您的大部分成本結構都以美元計價，這是非常不同的。因此，隨著美元以速度、速度和幅度升值，它對我們以產品為基礎的高價值業務產生了不成比例的影響，即軟件和基礎設施。您在第二季度的毛利率水平上看到了這種情況。

Remember, our hedges end up in expense. Gross margin, you see the revenue and the margin implications. So we understand how to manage currency. We have a robust hedging program in place. We've taken the appropriate cost structure and the appropriate pricing as we deal with that going forward, and you see all that taken into account in our guidance.

請記住，我們的對沖最終會產生費用。毛利率，您會看到收入和利潤率影響。所以我們了解如何管理貨幣。我們有一個強有力的對沖計劃。在我們處理這一問題時，我們已經採取了適當的成本結構和適當的定價，您會在我們的指導中看到所有這些因素。

Our next question will come from David Grossman with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Stifel 的 David Grossman。

Could you just remind us whether there are any expenses or stranded costs that remain in the 2022 P&L, that will diminish or go away in the next few years? You mentioned Russia had some losses. You mentioned the health care software divestiture. I don't know if there are any more. And perhaps beyond that, could you weave that dynamic into how it impacts free cash flow growth in the next year or 2, given your 2024 target really implies a fairly meaningful increase in free cash conversion over the next 2 years?

您能否提醒我們 2022 年損益表中是否還有任何費用或擱淺成本，這些費用或擱淺成本會在未來幾年內減少或消失嗎？你提到俄羅斯有一些損失。你提到了醫療保健軟件的剝離。不知道還有沒有。也許除此之外，鑑於您的 2024 年目標確實意味著未來 2 年自由現金轉換的相當有意義的增長，您能否將這種動態融入到它如何影響未來一兩年的自由現金流增長？

Yes, David, thank you very much for the question. At its core, we actually took some conscious strategy back in fourth quarter '20, if you remember. At the time, we announced the intent to spin off Kyndryl that we were going to try to get out in front of stranded costs. And as you see now, we've executed on additional portfolio actions with the divestiture and closure of our health care software assets across the board.

是的，大衛，非常感謝你的提問。如果您還記得的話，我們實際上在 20 年第四季度採取了一些有意識的策略。當時，我們宣布了剝離 Kyndryl 的意圖，我們將試圖擺脫擱淺成本。正如您現在所看到的，我們已經執行了額外的投資組合行動，全面剝離和關閉我們的醫療保健軟件資產。

If you look at 2022, there's about $500 million to $600 million, $700 million, give or take, in that range around structural action cash charges that will still impact us. And by the way, that's embedded in our about $10 billion overall. So now when you think to the core of your question about how that [then] plays out for '23 and '24, that actually turns into tailwinds in '23 and '24 because we're depressed in our free cash flow guidance.

如果你看看 2022 年，大約有 5 億美元到 6 億美元，7 億美元，在這個範圍內，圍繞結構性行動現金收費，仍然會影響我們。順便說一句，這包含在我們大約 100 億美元的整體中。因此，現在當您想到您的問題的核心時，即 [然後] 在 23 年和 24 年如何發揮作用，這實際上在 23 年和 24 年變成了順風，因為我們對自由現金流的指導感到沮喪。

And again, I'll remind you, that's up $3.5 billion year-to-year and up over $2 billion against our post-separation baseline. That depresses 2022's free cash flow. And we get that return, not only on the cash charges that we won't have in 2023, but also on the incremental ROI of getting rid of that stranded cost as we move forward. So both pieces, it kind of gives you a double benefit as we move forward.

再一次，我要提醒你，這比我們的分居後基線同比增長了 35 億美元，超過了 20 億美元。這抑制了 2022 年的自由現金流。我們得到了回報，不僅是我們在 2023 年不會有的現金費用，而且是在我們前進的過程中擺脫擱淺成本的增量投資回報率。因此，在我們前進的過程中，這兩件作品都會給您帶來雙重好處。

Our last question will come from Keith Bachman with BMO.

我們的最後一個問題將來自 BMO 的 Keith Bachman。

Arvind, I wanted to direct it to you, if I could. I? wanted to see if you could look out over the horizon a little bit longer. Some of the software companies have talked about some of the pipelines in a deep sales cycle are starting to extend and I just wanted to see if you're seeing any economic impact. And then more specifically, I wanted to see if you could comment, historically, consulting has been highly correlated to economic cycles. And this is going back last 15, 20 years. And I just wanted to see as we're heading into late '22 and more importantly '23, how do you think the consulting business is prepared for some potential economic downturns? Or just more broadly, how do you think about the growth potential there?

Arvind，如果可以的話，我想直接給你看。我？想看看你能不能多看一點地平線。一些軟件公司已經談到深銷售週期中的一些管道開始擴展，我只是想看看你是否看到了任何經濟影響。然後更具體地說，我想看看你是否可以評論一下，從歷史上看，諮詢與經濟周期高度相關。這可以追溯到過去 15 年、20 年。我只是想看看，隨著我們進入 22 年末，更重要的是 23 年，您認為諮詢業務如何為一些潛在的經濟衰退做好準備？或者更廣泛地說，您如何看待那裡的增長潛力？

And Jim, if I could just sneak in one thing for you real quick, if you could just talk about what the M&A contribution is this year? You mentioned some recent deals. Just if you could provide an update, that would be great.

吉姆，如果我能快速為您介紹一件事，您能否談談今年的併購貢獻？你提到了最近的一些交易。只要您能提供更新，那就太好了。

Okay. So Keith, a lot to unpack in that question. If I look at our pipelines, our pipelines are remaining pretty healthy. So I would tell you that right now, what we are seeing is that the second half at this point, looks pretty consistent to the first half. When we look at our pipelines, whether it's in Red Hat or mainframe software or Automation, Data & AI, Security and by geography.

好的。所以基思，在這個問題上有很多東西要解開。如果我查看我們的管道，我們的管道仍然非常健康。所以我要告訴你，現在，我們看到的是，在這一點上，下半場看起來與上半場非常一致。當我們查看我們的管道時，無論是在紅帽或大型機軟件中，還是在自動化、數據和人工智能、安全性和地理位置中。

So this is a little bit different, which is why you've heard me often say I'm a bit more optimistic than many of my peers, both within the industry and across the board because we see that technology, and Jim has also said this as of I, is deflationary. So in an inflationary environment when clients take our technology, deploy it, leverage our consulting. It acts as a counterbalance to all of the inflation and all of the labor demographics that people are facing all over the globe. So that is the reason on software.

所以這有點不同，這就是為什麼你經常聽到我說我比業內和整個行業的許多同行更樂觀，因為我們看到了這種技術，Jim 也說過就我而言，這是通貨緊縮的。因此，在通貨膨脹的環境中，當客戶採用我們的技術、部署它、利用我們的諮詢時。它可以抵消全球人們面臨的所有通貨膨脹和所有勞動力人口統計數據。這就是軟件的原因。

Second, on consulting correlated to the economic cycle, and maybe we see much less of that this time around because of the nature of our consulting. If you look at it, a lot of our consulting is around deploying back-office applications, critical applications, supply chain resilience, worrying about cash conversion, worrying about optimization of our -- of the costs within our clients. Those tend to get more attention actually in, I'll call it, at least a slight down cycle. They're not.

其次，關於與經濟周期相關的諮詢，由於我們諮詢的性質，這次我們看到的可能要少得多。如果你看一下，我們的很多諮詢都是圍繞部署後台應用程序、關鍵應用程序、供應鏈彈性、擔心現金轉換、擔心優化我們的客戶成本。實際上，這些往往會得到更多的關注，我稱之為，至少是一個輕微的下降週期。他們不是。

Third, Look, consulting is very labor-based. Jim talked a lot about the demand and the supply. But to be completely clear, in a business where you do hire tens of thousands of people because of the scale of it, you do churn in the neighborhood of tens of thousands each year. That gives you an automatic way to hit a pause in some of the profit controls because if you don't see the demand coming, you're going to slow down your supply side. And it -- you get kind of at least a 10% to 20% impact that you can pretty quickly control, not in a given month, but certainly within a half year or thereabouts.

第三，看，諮詢是非常以勞動為基礎的。吉姆談了很多關於需求和供應的事情。但要完全清楚，在一個由於規模而僱傭數万人的企業中，你每年確實會流失數万人。這為您提供了一種自動暫停某些利潤控制的方法，因為如果您看不到需求的到來，您將放慢供應方面的速度。而且它 - 你會得到至少 10% 到 20% 的影響，你可以很快控制，不是在給定的一個月內，而是在半年左右。

On M&A, actually, I'll say it before Jim will. We have said that our model is about 1 point to 1.5 points each year based on M&A. And if you look at last year, that was pretty consistent. If you look at this year, look, the year is not over, but you should expect it to stay in that range. And it's a mix between consulting acquisitions and software acquisitions, and the multiples that we've been getting them at still imply that range. So I think we'll give you that answer, and we expect it to stay there.

實際上，關於併購，我會在 Jim 之前說出來。我們說過，我們的模型基於併購，每年大約是 1 分到 1.5 分。如果你看看去年，那是相當一致的。如果你看今年，看，這一年還沒有結束，但你應該期望它保持在那個範圍內。它是諮詢收購和軟件收購之間的混合體，我們得到的倍數仍然暗示著這個範圍。所以我想我們會給你這個答案，我們希望它留在那裡。

So let me wrap up the call. So let me just say, we are very pleased with our solid first half performance. As we look to the second half, we are going to focus on the execution of our strategy, delivering sustained revenue and free cash flow growth. And I look forward to speaking with all of you again soon.

所以讓我結束通話。所以我只想說，我們對上半年的穩健表現感到非常滿意。展望下半年，我們將專注於戰略的執行，實現持續的收入和自由現金流增長。我期待很快再次與大家交談。

[Kayla], let me turn it back to you to wrap up the call.

[Kayla]，讓我把它轉回給你結束通話。

Thank you. Thank you for participating on today's call. The conference has now ended. You may disconnect at this time.

謝謝你。感謝您參加今天的電話會議。會議現已結束。此時您可以斷開連接。