International Business Machines Corp (IBM) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome, and thank you for standing by. (Operator Instructions) Today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions) Now I will turn the meeting over to Ms. Patricia Murphy with IBM. Ma'am, you may begin.

歡迎，並感謝您的支持。 （操作員說明）今天的會議正在錄製中。 （操作員說明）現在我將把會議交給 IBM 的 Patricia Murphy 女士。女士，您可以開始了。

Thank you. This is Patricia Murphy, and I'd like to welcome you to IBM's Third Quarter 2022 Earnings Presentation. I'm here with Arvind Krishna, IBM's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Jim Kavanaugh, IBM's Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We'll post today's prepared remarks on the IBM investor website within a couple of hours, and a replay will be available by this time tomorrow.

謝謝你。我是 Patricia Murphy，歡迎您參加 IBM 的 2022 年第三季度收益報告。我和 IBM 董事長兼首席執行官 Arvind Krishna 一起來到這裡。 IBM 高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Jim Kavanaugh。我們將在幾個小時內將今天準備好的評論發佈在 IBM 投資者網站上，明天這個時候將提供重播。

To provide additional information to our investors, our presentation includes certain non-GAAP measures. For example, all of our references to revenue growth are at constant currency. We have provided reconciliation charts for these and other non-GAAP measures at the end of the presentation, which is posted to our investor website.

為了向我們的投資者提供更多信息，我們的演示文稿包括某些非公認會計原則措施。例如，我們所有提到的收入增長都是以不變貨幣計算的。我們在演示文稿結束時提供了這些和其他非公認會計原則措施的對賬圖表，該圖表已發佈到我們的投資者網站上。

Finally, some comments made in this presentation may be considered forward-looking under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements involve factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially. Additional information about these factors is included in the company's SEC filings. With that, I'll turn the call over to Arvind.

最後，根據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》，本演示文稿中的一些評論可能被視為具有前瞻性。這些陳述涉及可能導致我們的實際結果出現重大差異的因素。有關這些因素的其他信息包含在公司提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中。有了這個，我會把電話轉給 Arvind。

Thank you for joining us today. The results we delivered in the third quarter reflect our continued focus on the execution of our strategy with over $14 billion of revenue and strong growth across the portfolio. Technology remains a fundamental source of competitive advantage, and we continue to see solid demand for our hybrid cloud and AI solutions. Continued double-digit revenue growth in IBM Consulting, capturing client demand for digital transformations. Software revenue performance was also strong with growth across all categories. And our Infrastructure business had another high-growth quarter in both zSystems and Distributed Infrastructure. Our revenue strength was broad-based geographically as well.

感謝您今天加入我們。我們在第三季度交付的結果反映了我們繼續專注於執行我們的戰略，收入超過 140 億美元，整個投資組合都實現了強勁增長。技術仍然是競爭優勢的基本來源，我們繼續看到對我們的混合雲和人工智能解決方案的強勁需求。 IBM Consulting 的收入持續保持兩位數增長，抓住了客戶對數字化轉型的需求。軟件收入表現也很強勁，所有類別都有增長。我們的基礎設施業務在 zSystems 和分佈式基礎設施方面又出現了一個高增長季度。我們的收入優勢在地域上也很廣泛。

When I talk with clients, it's clear there's a real opportunity to help businesses leverage technology in today's environment. Clients are dealing with everything from inflation to demographic shifts, from supply chain bottlenecks to sustainability efforts. By deploying powerful hybrid cloud and AI technologies, IBM is helping businesses seize new opportunities, overcome today's challenges and emerge stronger.

當我與客戶交談時，很明顯有一個真正的機會可以幫助企業在當今環境中利用技術。客戶正在處理從通貨膨脹到人口結構變化、從供應鏈瓶頸到可持續發展努力的方方面面。通過部署強大的混合雲和人工智能技術，IBM 正在幫助企業抓住新機遇、克服當今的挑戰並變得更強大。

We, too, are building a stronger company that is closely aligned to the needs of our clients. In line with our hybrid cloud and AI strategy, we have continued to focus our portfolio, invest in our offerings, technical talent and ecosystem and streamline our go-to-market model. With strong performance through the first 3 quarters, we are taking up our revenue expectations for the year and now expect 2022 revenue above our mid-single-digit model.

我們也在建設一家更強大的公司，與客戶的需求密切相關。根據我們的混合雲和人工智能戰略，我們繼續專注於我們的產品組合，投資於我們的產品、技術人才和生態系統，並簡化我們的上市模式。憑藉前三個季度的強勁表現，我們正在接受今年的收入預期，現在預計 2022 年的收入將高於我們的中個位數模型。

Let me now turn to the progress we are making in the execution of our strategy. Our point of view is clear. Hybrid cloud and AI are the 2 most transformational enterprise technologies of our time. Hybrid cloud is already becoming the dominant architecture for enterprise. According to a recent survey by the Harris Poll, 77% of businesses surveyed that they have adopted hybrid cloud for their organizations with data located across multiple clouds, on-premise or at the edge. Hybrid cloud is about offering clients a platform that can drive value across these different environments.

現在讓我談談我們在執行戰略方面取得的進展。我們的觀點很明確。混合雲和人工智能是我們這個時代最具變革性的兩種企業技術。混合雲已經成為企業的主導架構。根據 Harris Poll 最近的一項調查，接受調查的企業中有 77% 的企業已為其組織採用混合雲，其數據位於多個雲、本地或邊緣。混合雲旨在為客戶提供一個可以在這些不同環境中推動價值的平台。

Our platform based on Red Hat allows our clients to consume software driven by open source innovation. IBM's software has been optimized to run on that platform and includes advanced data and AI, automation and security capabilities. Our consultants offer deep business expertise and co-create with clients to accelerate their digital transformation journeys. And our infrastructure allows clients to take full advantage of a hybrid cloud environment.

我們基於紅帽的平台允許我們的客戶使用由開源創新驅動的軟件。 IBM 的軟件已經過優化，可在該平台上運行，包括高級數據和人工智能、自動化和安全功能。我們的顧問提供深厚的業務專業知識，並與客戶共同創造以加速他們的數字化轉型之旅。我們的基礎架構允許客戶充分利用混合雲環境。

Our platform-centric strategy continues to have good momentum, adding a couple of hundred hybrid cloud platform clients in the third quarter. We see more and more clients consuming across our portfolio of Software, Consulting and Infrastructure capabilities. This quarter, clients such as Bank of America, Bharti Airtel and Samsung Electronics have chosen IBM to realize the full potential of a hybrid cloud computing model.

我們以平台為中心的戰略繼續保持良好勢頭，在第三季度增加了數百個混合雲平台客戶。我們看到越來越多的客戶使用我們的軟件、諮詢和基礎設施功能組合。本季度，美國銀行、Bharti Airtel 和三星電子等客戶選擇 IBM 來實現混合雲計算模型的全部潛力。

Let me now say a few words about our AI capabilities. As demographic shifts continue to add pressure to modern economies, coupled with wage inflation, companies are eager to deploy AI and automation capabilities at scale to boost their levels of productivity. That is what IBM is helping companies bring to bear. In the context of enterprise, we are seeing 4 main use cases emerge: AI to interact and converse; AI to automate IT processes; AI to extract knowledge and insights; and finally, AI to automate business workflows such as HR, supply chains and financial reporting. We are working to bring these capabilities to clients across all industries.

現在讓我談談我們的人工智能能力。隨著人口結構的變化繼續給現代經濟增加壓力，再加上工資上漲，公司渴望大規模部署人工智能和自動化能力以提高生產力水平。這就是 IBM 正在幫助公司實現的目標。在企業環境中，我們看到 4 個主要用例出現：人工智能交互和對話；人工智能使 IT 流程自動化；人工智能提取知識和見解；最後，人工智能可以實現人力資源、供應鍊和財務報告等業務工作流程的自動化。我們正在努力將這些功能帶給所有行業的客戶。

For instance, this quarter, IBM Consulting partnered with the U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs to automate business workflows related to the delivery of pension benefits. This helps free up valuable time of VA staff and speed up the processing of claims made by the veterans most in need. Our partner ecosystem is a crucial element of our strategy. Each quarter, we continue to expand the work we do with partners to serve our joint clients. For instance, we recently announced an expansion of our partnership with VMware to help clients in regulated industries more easily move workloads to the cloud, with IBM Consulting now serving as a GSI partner for VMware.

例如，本季度，IBM 諮詢公司與美國退伍軍人事務部合作，實現與養老金福利交付相關的業務工作流程自動化。這有助於騰出 VA 員工的寶貴時間，並加快處理最需要幫助的退伍軍人提出的索賠。我們的合作夥伴生態系統是我們戰略的關鍵要素。每個季度，我們都會繼續擴大與合作夥伴的合作，為我們的共同客戶提供服務。例如，我們最近宣布擴大與 VMware 的合作夥伴關係，以幫助受監管行業的客戶更輕鬆地將工作負載遷移到雲端，IBM Consulting 現在是 VMware 的 GSI 合作夥伴。

We announced that Red Hat and Dell are launching a set of containerized solutions aimed at simplifying the management of multi-cloud environments on-premise. Gartner predicts that by 2026, 90% of organizations will use containers. These actions represent another step in our efforts to seize this opportunity through ecosystem relationships and our technology offerings.

我們宣布紅帽和戴爾將推出一套容器化解決方案，旨在簡化本地多雲環境的管理。 Gartner 預測，到 2026 年，90% 的組織將使用容器。這些行動代表了我們努力通過生態系統關係和我們的技術產品抓住這一機會的又一步。

We are actively working to introduce new innovations and shape the technologies of the future. Most recently, we unveiled the next generation of our LinuxONE server, a Linux and Kubernetes-based platform designed to support thousands of workloads within the footprint of a single system. As an example, Citibank is hosting MongoDB on IBM LinuxONE, leveraging the platform's security, resiliency and elastic capacity and helping Citi lower its overall carbon footprint.

我們正在積極努力引入新的創新並塑造未來的技術。最近，我們推出了下一代 LinuxONE 服務器，這是一個基於 Linux 和 Kubernetes 的平台，旨在支持單個系統佔用的數千個工作負載。例如，花旗銀行在 IBM LinuxONE 上託管 MongoDB，利用該平台的安全性、彈性和彈性容量，幫助花旗降低其整體碳足跡。

We also continue to make progress in quantum computing. We remain on track towards our goal of building a 1,000-qubit system by 2023. To advance the security of our communication networks, IBM alongside Vodafone recently joined the GSMA Post-Quantum Telco Network Taskforce. This task force aims to introduce a framework for the telco industry to adopt new quantum-safe approaches.

我們還在量子計算方面繼續取得進展。我們將繼續朝著 2023 年構建 1,000 量子比特系統的目標前進。為了提高我們通信網絡的安全性，IBM 與沃達丰最近加入了 GSMA 後量子電信網絡工作組。該工作組旨在為電信行業引入一個框架，以採用新的量子安全方法。

Complementing our organic innovation, we recently acquired Dialexa. This brings our total number of acquisitions this year to 7, adding new capabilities in areas like hybrid cloud services, security, data observability and sustainability. As the world takes on the challenge of sustainability and building a more circular economy, IBM has been building a portfolio of solutions to help companies make progress on this journey.

為了補充我們的有機創新，我們最近收購了 Dialexa。這使我們今年的收購總數達到 7 次，在混合雲服務、安全性、數據可觀察性和可持續性等領域增加了新功能。隨著世界迎接可持續發展和建立更加循環的經濟的挑戰，IBM 一直在構建解決方案組合，以幫助公司在這一旅程中取得進展。

This quarter, we received recognition, highlighting our sustainability efforts. The analyst firm HFS Research and Forbes both recognized IBM for its capabilities in the area of sustainability, including Envizi and our Environmental Intelligence Suite software.

本季度，我們獲得了認可，突出了我們在可持續發展方面所做的努力。分析公司 HFS Research 和福布斯都認可 IBM 在可持續發展領域的能力，包括 Envizi 和我們的環境智能套件軟件。

Let me conclude by reminding you that last October and just prior to the separation of Kyndryl, we held our investor briefing, laying out priorities for our portfolio and growth. Over the last 4 quarters, we have driven constant currency revenue growth at or above our mid-single-digit model with solid free cash flow. And while there is always more to do, we are pleased with our first year's progress. As we look forward, we remain confident in our strategy and execution and feel we are well positioned to address today's client needs.

最後讓我提醒您，去年 10 月，就在 Kyndryl 分離之前，我們舉行了投資者簡報會，列出了我們投資組合和增長的優先事項。在過去的四個季度中，我們以穩定的自由現金流推動了穩定的貨幣收入增長達到或高於我們的中個位數模型。雖然總有更多工作要做，但我們對第一年的進展感到滿意。展望未來，我們對我們的戰略和執行仍然充滿信心，並認為我們已做好準備滿足當今客戶的需求。

Let me now turn it over to Jim, who will provide more details on the quarter and our expectations for the balance of the year.

現在讓我把它交給吉姆，他將提供有關本季度的更多細節以及我們對今年餘額的預期。

Thanks, Arvind. I'll start with the financial highlights. In the third quarter, we delivered $14.1 billion in revenue, $2 billion of operating pretax income and a margin of nearly 14%, and operating earnings per share of $1.81. For the first 3 quarters of the year, we generated over $4 billion of free cash flow. Our revenue was up 15%, which includes about 5 points of contribution from sales to Kyndryl. While we'll discuss our results today at constant currency, I'll mention that with the continuing strengthening of the U.S. dollar, currency translation impacted our reported revenue growth by more than 8 points or nearly $1.1 billion.

謝謝，阿文德。我將從財務亮點開始。第三季度，我們實現了 141 億美元的收入、20 億美元的營業稅前收入和近 14% 的利潤率，每股營業收益為 1.81 美元。今年前三個季度，我們產生了超過 40 億美元的自由現金流。我們的收入增長了 15%，其中包括對 Kyndryl 的銷售貢獻約 5 個百分點。雖然我們今天將以固定匯率討論我們的結果，但我會提到，隨著美元的持續走強，貨幣換算對我們報告的收入增長影響超過 8 個百分點或接近 11 億美元。

As Arvind said, our revenue growth this quarter was pervasive. Software revenue was up 14% and Consulting up 16%. These are our growth vectors and represent over 70% of our revenue. Infrastructure was up 23%, reflecting solid product cycle dynamics. Software and Infrastructure include about 8 and 9 points of growth, respectively, from the commercial relationship with Kyndryl. More than half of our revenue is recurring, and this annuity content, which is driven by software, continues to grow.

正如 Arvind 所說，我們本季度的收入增長無處不在。軟件收入增長 14%，諮詢增長 16%。這些是我們的增長載體，占我們收入的 70% 以上。基礎設施增長 23%，反映了穩健的產品週期動態。軟件和基礎設施分別從與 Kyndryl 的商業關係中獲得了大約 8 個和 9 個增長點。我們一半以上的收入是經常性的，而這種由軟件驅動的年金內容繼續增長。

Performance was also broad-based by geography. Americas, EMEA and Asia Pacific revenue were all up double digits, and we gained share overall. These revenue results reflect the execution of more focused hybrid cloud and AI strategy based on a platform-centric approach and leveraging a broad ecosystem of partners. Our full stack capabilities across Software, Consulting and Infrastructure delivered 20% growth in hybrid cloud revenue over the last year to over $22 billion.

業績也因地域而廣泛。美洲、歐洲、中東和非洲和亞太地區的收入均增長了兩位數，我們的整體份額有所增加。這些收入結果反映了基於以平台為中心的方法並利用廣泛的合作夥伴生態系統執行更專注的混合雲和人工智能戰略。去年，我們在軟件、諮詢和基礎設施方面的全棧能力使混合雲收入增長了 20%，達到超過 220 億美元。

Looking at our profit metrics, operating pretax income was up and margin expanded by 180 basis points year-to-year. These profit dynamics reflect our portfolio shift toward higher value led by software. This mix shift is contributing to profit and margin. Our pretax profit also includes the contribution from incremental sales to Kyndryl. Like our clients, we are focused on digitally transforming our own operations, applying AI and automation to drive productivity and efficiency in the spend base. This provides flexibility to continue to invest in talent, innovation and our ecosystem in an inflationary environment.

從我們的利潤指標來看，營業稅前收入上升，利潤率同比增長 180 個基點。這些利潤動態反映了我們的投資組合轉向以軟件為主導的更高價值。這種混合轉變有助於提高利潤和利潤率。我們的稅前利潤還包括增量銷售對 Kyndryl 的貢獻。與我們的客戶一樣，我們專注於對我們自己的運營進行數字化轉型，應用人工智能和自動化來提高支出基礎的生產力和效率。這為在通脹環境中繼續投資於人才、創新和我們的生態系統提供了靈活性。

90 days ago, we spent some time talking about currency dynamics. I'll remind you of a few of the key points. A stronger dollar impacts our revenue and gross profit dollars. We execute a hedging program, which defers versus eliminates the impact of currency. The gains from these hedging programs are reflected primarily in other income and expense. But with the rate and magnitude of the movements and because we don't hedge all currencies, we do have a currency impact to our overall profit and cash flow.

90 天前，我們花了一些時間談論貨幣動態。我會提醒你幾個關鍵點。美元走強會影響我們的收入和毛利潤。我們執行對沖計劃，推遲或消除貨幣的影響。這些對沖計劃的收益主要反映在其他收入和支出中。但隨著變動的速度和幅度，並且由於我們不對所有貨幣進行對沖，我們確實會對我們的整體利潤和現金流產生貨幣影響。

Wrapping up the discussion on profit dynamics. The currency impacts and a good amount of investments are in gross profit. While the mitigating hedging benefits and operational productivity are reflected primarily in expense. As a result, pretax income is a better indicator of our profit performance. Our operating tax rate was about 16%. Compared to last year, tax is a significant year-to-year headwind to operating net income and operating EPS growth, which were both down modestly year-to-year.

結束關於利潤動態的討論。貨幣影響和大量投資都體現在毛利潤中。而減輕對沖收益和運營效率主要體現在費用上。因此，稅前收入是我們利潤表現的更好指標。我們的營業稅率約為 16%。與去年相比，稅收是對營業淨收入和營業每股收益增長的重大逐年不利因素，兩者均同比小幅下降。

Turning to free cash flow. We generated $4.1 billion in the first 3 quarters. That's up over $900 million year-to-year. We're wrapping on payments related to the Kyndryl separation and the 2020 structural action and driving working capital efficiencies. In terms of uses of cash in the first 3 quarters, we invested over $1 billion in acquisitions, which was more than offset by proceeds from divested businesses. And we returned nearly $4.5 billion to shareholders in the form of dividends.

轉向自由現金流。我們在前三個季度創造了 41 億美元。同比增長超過 9 億美元。我們正在完成與 Kyndryl 分離和 2020 年結構性行動以及提高營運資本效率相關的付款。在前三個季度的現金使用方面，我們在收購方面的投資超過 10 億美元，這被剝離業務的收益所抵消。我們以股息的形式向股東返還了近 45 億美元。

From a balance sheet perspective, we issued debt in July to prudently get ahead of our 2023 maturities. Our debt balance is up since June but down nearly $1 billion since December. We ended the quarter in a strong liquidity position with cash of $9.7 billion. This is up over $2 billion from year-end and well in excess of the minimum cash required for our business.

從資產負債表的角度來看，我們在 7 月發行了債券，以謹慎地提前到 2023 年到期。自 6 月以來，我們的債務餘額有所增加，但自 12 月以來減少了近 10 億美元。我們以 97 億美元的現金結束了本季度的強勁流動性狀況。這比年底增加了超過 20 億美元，遠遠超過了我們業務所需的最低現金。

Turning to the segments. Software revenue grew 14%. This includes about 8 points of Kyndryl contribution, both of our revenue categories, Hybrid Platform & Solutions and Transaction Processing through this quarter. This performance reflects our strong and growing recurring revenue base, which is about 80% of our annual Software revenue. And Software's hybrid cloud revenue is now $9.2 billion over the last year, up 20%. In Hybrid Platform & Solutions, revenue was up 8%, including about 1.5 points contribution from the Kyndryl commercial relationship.

轉向細分市場。軟件收入增長 14%。這包括到本季度我們的收入類別、混合平台和解決方案以及交易處理的大約 8 個點的 Kyndryl 貢獻。這一業績反映了我們強大且不斷增長的經常性收入基礎，約占我們年度軟件收入的 80%。 Software 的混合雲收入現在比去年達到 92 億美元，增長了 20%。在混合平台和解決方案中，收入增長了 8%，其中包括來自 Kyndryl 商業關係的約 1.5 個百分點的貢獻。

The growth was broad-based. Red Hat revenue all-in grew 18%. As a leader in open source technologies for the enterprise, Red Hat's performance was again fueled by market share gains across RHEL, OpenShift and Ansible this quarter. With our enterprise incumbency and global scale, we continue to see an increase in large deals as well as strong cross-sell and upsell across Red Hat solutions.

增長基礎廣泛。紅帽總收入增長了 18%。作為企業開源技術的領導者，紅帽的業績再次受到本季度 RHEL、OpenShift 和 Ansible 市場份額增長的推動。憑藉我們的企業在職和全球規模，我們繼續看到大宗交易的增加以及紅帽解決方案的強大交叉銷售和追加銷售。

Automation revenue grew 3%. This quarter's performance reflects continued adoption in areas like AIOps and management and integration, while we're also wrapping a strong acquisition content from last year. We're bringing innovation to our clients this quarter such as new Instana observability capabilities for zSystems in a hybrid cloud environment. In data and AI, revenue was up 4%. Let me highlight just a few of the growth areas this quarter. Data management fuels advanced analytics. Data fabric helps clients discover and unlock the value of their data wherever it resides, and information exchange enables the timely and secure flow of complex B2B information. And offerings like Envizi and Environmental Intelligence Suite are resonating with clients as they prioritize sustainability efforts.

自動化收入增長 3%。本季度的表現反映了 AIOps 以及管理和集成等領域的持續採用，同時我們還總結了去年的強大收購內容。我們在本季度為我們的客戶帶來了創新，例如混合雲環境中 zSystems 的新 Instana 可觀察性功能。在數據和人工智能方面，收入增長了 4%。讓我只強調本季度的幾個增長領域。數據管理推動高級分析。 Data Fabric 可幫助客戶發現和釋放其數據的價值，無論其位於何處，信息交換使復雜的 B2B 信息能夠及時、安全地流動。 Envizi 和環境智能套件等產品在客戶優先考慮可持續發展工作時引起了客戶的共鳴。

Security revenue was up 6%, with growth in both data security and threat management. In data security, we're seeing adoption of Guardium Insights as we continue to deliver new product innovation. Threat management growth was led by Cloud Pak for Security, which helps clients prevent and respond to modern threats across disparate security feeds. Across Hybrid Platform & Solutions, the annual recurring revenue, or ARR, is now $13 billion and up 9%. Transaction Processing revenue was up 33%, including about 26 points of Kyndryl contribution. The increase in zSystems' installed capacity over the last couple of cycles and continued strong renewal rates are recognition of the importance of this platform in a hybrid cloud environment. As a result, the transaction processing annuity base is now growing.

隨著數據安全和威脅管理的增長，安全收入增長了 6%。在數據安全方面，隨著我們繼續提供新的產品創新，我們看到了 Guardium Insights 的採用。威脅管理增長由 Cloud Pak for Security 引領，它幫助客戶預防和響應跨不同安全源的現代威脅。在整個混合平台和解決方案中，年度經常性收入 (ARR) 現在為 130 億美元，增長 9%。交易處理收入增長了 33%，其中 Kyndryl 貢獻了約 26 個百分點。 zSystems 在過去幾個週期中的裝機容量增加以及持續強勁的更新率表明該平台在混合雲環境中的重要性。因此，交易處理年金基數現在正在增長。

Looking at Software profit, we delivered operating leverage, given the solid revenue growth and new Kyndryl commercial relationship. Our pretax margin was up more than 4 points over last year. Consulting revenue grew 16%. This is the fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. This strong performance was again broad-based with revenue growing at double-digit rates across all business lines and geographies. Over the last year, our book-to-bill ratio is 1.05. Clients trust IBM's deep industry expertise and co-creation approach throughout their hybrid cloud and digital transformation journeys.

從軟件利潤來看，鑑於穩健的收入增長和新的 Kyndryl 商業關係，我們提供了運營槓桿。我們的稅前利潤率比去年提高了 4 個百分點以上。諮詢收入增長 16%。這是連續第五個季度實現兩位數增長。這種強勁的表現再次得到廣泛的支持，所有業務線和地區的收入均以兩位數的速度增長。去年，我們的訂單出貨比為 1.05。在整個混合雲和數字化轉型之旅中，客戶信任 IBM 深厚的行業專業知識和共同創造方法。

As IBM Consulting designs and enables enterprise hybrid cloud strategies, this business delivered $8.9 billion in hybrid cloud revenue over the last year. That's up 28%. Our Red Hat consulting practice continues to be a meaningful contributor to revenue growth, growing strong double digits as we add new engagements. Since IBM acquired Red Hat just over 3 years ago, Consulting has led nearly 1,400 Red Hat engagements with over $6.5 billion in aggregate bookings. Strategic partnerships also contributed to performance, continuing to grow revenue at a double-digit rate.

隨著 IBM Consulting 設計和實施企業混合雲戰略，該業務在去年實現了 89 億美元的混合雲收入。上漲了 28%。我們的紅帽諮詢業務繼續為收入增長做出有意義的貢獻，隨著我們增加新的業務，增長強勁的兩位數。自 3 年前 IBM 收購 Red Hat 以來，Consulting 領導了近 1,400 次 Red Hat 項目，總預訂量超過 65 億美元。戰略合作夥伴關係也為業績做出了貢獻，收入繼續以兩位數的速度增長。

Turning to our lines of business. Business transformation revenue grew 14% as clients look to IBM to help them transform critical workflows at scale. Growth in business transformation was pervasive, driven by supply chain, finance, data and client experience transformations. Working with our partners like SAP, Salesforce and Adobe, we help our clients optimize their operations and improve the way they engage with their customers.

轉向我們的業務領域。由於客戶希望 IBM 幫助他們大規模改造關鍵工作流，業務轉型收入增長了 14%。在供應鏈、財務、數據和客戶體驗轉型的推動下，業務轉型的增長無處不在。我們與 SAP、Salesforce 和 Adobe 等合作夥伴合作，幫助客戶優化運營並改善與客戶互動的方式。

In technology consulting, where we architect and implement clients' cloud platforms and strategies, revenue was up 17%. Once again, growth was led by cloud application development and cloud modernization, including our Red Hat practice, which as I mentioned, grew strong double digits. Application operations revenue grew 17%. IBM helps clients optimize their operations and reduce costs by taking over the management of clients' applications in hybrid and multi-cloud environments. We leverage AI to help predict problems before they happen and monitor our clients' different environments with dashboards, enabling action to be taken quickly.

在技術諮詢領域，我們構建和實施客戶的雲平台和戰略，收入增長了 17%。再一次，增長是由雲應用程序開發和雲現代化引領的，包括我們的紅帽實踐，正如我所提到的，它增長了兩位數。應用程序運營收入增長 17%。 IBM 通過接管混合和多雲環境中客戶應用程序的管理，幫助客戶優化運營並降低成本。我們利用人工智能幫助在問題發生之前預測問題，並通過儀表板監控客戶的不同環境，從而能夠迅速採取行動。

Moving to Consulting profit. Our pretax margin of about 10% is down year-to-year though up nearly 3 points from the second quarter. As we've discussed in prior quarters, Consulting is most impacted by the labor cost inflation. Those dynamics continue to put pressure on the margin profile. However, coming out of the third quarter, we are seeing signs of progress. Our utilization rates are improving as we exited the quarter, our acquisitions are scaling and are on a path to margin accretion, and we've seen 2 quarters of price margin improvement year-over-year that will benefit our margin profile going forward.

轉向諮詢利潤。我們約 10% 的稅前利潤率同比下降，但比第二季度上升了近 3 個百分點。正如我們在前幾個季度所討論的，諮詢受勞動力成本上漲的影響最大。這些動態繼續對利潤率構成壓力。然而，從第三季度開始，我們看到了進展的跡象。隨著我們退出本季度，我們的利用率正在提高，我們的收購規模正在擴大，並且正在增加利潤率，我們已經看到 2 個季度的價格利潤率同比提高，這將有利於我們未來的利潤率狀況。

Moving to our Infrastructure segment. Revenue grew 23%. This includes about 9 points from the incremental Kyndryl content. Hybrid infrastructure revenue grew 41% and infrastructure support revenue grew 5%, including about 11 and 7 points of Kyndryl benefit, respectively. Looking at hybrid infrastructure, z System's revenue nearly doubled, driven by continued adoption of our newest program, z16. This latest program combines embedded AI at scale, cloud-native development for hybrid cloud and cyber resilience security. In fact, z16 is the industry's first quantum-safe system, delivering 25 billion encrypted transactions per day for clients.

轉到我們的基礎設施部門。收入增長 23%。這包括來自增量 Kyndryl 內容的大約 9 個點。混合基礎設施收入增長 41%，基礎設施支持收入增長 5%，其中 Kyndryl 收益分別增加約 11 點和 7 點。在混合基礎架構方面，z System 的收入幾乎翻了一番，這得益於我們最新計劃 z16 的持續採用。這個最新計劃結合了大規模嵌入式人工智能、混合雲的雲原生開發和網絡彈性安全。事實上，z16 是業界首個量子安全系統，每天為客戶提供 250 億次加密交易。

And as Arvind mentioned, we just introduced our newest LinuxONE server, a highly scalable Linux and Kubernetes-based platform with capabilities to reduce clients' energy consumption. zSystems remains an enduring platform, playing an important role in a hybrid cloud environment. Distributed Infrastructure revenue was up 21%. Recent innovation across the portfolio enabled broad-based growth within both storage and power. These include the expansion of our Power10 server family earlier this quarter and refreshes to the flash storage solutions throughout this year. Looking at Infrastructure profit, pretax margin was up 1 point year-to-year, reflecting mix benefits from the growth in zSystems.

正如 Arvind 所提到的，我們剛剛推出了我們最新的 LinuxONE 服務器，這是一個高度可擴展的基於 Linux 和 Kubernetes 的平台，能夠降低客戶的能源消耗。 zSystems 仍然是一個經久不衰的平台，在混合雲環境中發揮著重要作用。分佈式基礎設施收入增長了 21%。最近整個產品組合的創新實現了存儲和電力領域的廣泛增長。其中包括本季度早些時候擴展我們的 Power10 服務器系列，並在今年全年更新閃存存儲解決方案。從基礎設施利潤來看，稅前利潤率同比增長 1 個百分點，反映了 zSystems 增長帶來的綜合收益。

Now let me take it back up to the IBM level, and I'll shift the focus to the full year and the fourth quarter. Over the last year, we've continued to invest and make portfolio changes to advance our hybrid cloud and AI strategy, streamline our go-to-market and digitally transform our own operations. Our more focused strategy and portfolio is aligned to client needs. Our revenue performance so far this year demonstrates that. And based on this revenue performance in the first 3 quarters, as Arvind said, we now see constant currency revenue growth above our mid-single-digit model for the year.

現在讓我回到 IBM 級別，我將把重點轉移到全年和第四季度。在過去的一年裡，我們繼續投資並進行投資組合變更，以推進我們的混合雲和人工智能戰略，簡化我們的上市流程並以數字方式轉變我們自己的運營。我們更專注的戰略和產品組合與客戶需求保持一致。我們今年迄今為止的收入表現證明了這一點。正如 Arvind 所說，基於前三個季度的收入表現，我們現在看到恆定的貨幣收入增長高於我們今年的中個位數模型。

On top of that, Kyndryl sales add about 3.5 points of growth, primarily in the first 3 quarters of the year so it's essentially behind us. U.S. dollar continues to strengthen. And at mid-October spot rates, currency translation will now be about a 7-point headwind to growth for the year. As I mentioned earlier, this impacts profit and free cash flow as well.

最重要的是，Kyndryl 的銷售額增加了大約 3.5 個百分點，主要是在今年的前 3 個季度，所以它基本上落後於我們。美元繼續走強。以 10 月中旬的即期匯率計算，貨幣換算現在將對今年的增長構成約 7 個百分點的阻力。正如我之前提到的，這也會影響利潤和自由現金流。

Looking at free cash flow, our other key metric, we continue to expect to generate about $10 billion for the year. That's up over $3 billion from last year. A large part of that growth comes from the wrap on the Kyndryl spin-related and structural payments. But we're also driving working capital efficiency and improving operating profit profile. We expect strong free cash flow performance in the fourth quarter while we continue to face some external headwinds, including appreciation of the U.S. dollar and exit of our Russia operations.

看看我們的另一個關鍵指標自由現金流，我們繼續預計今年將產生約 100 億美元。這比去年增加了超過 30 億美元。這種增長的很大一部分來自與 Kyndryl 旋轉相關的結構性支付。但我們也在提高營運資金效率並改善運營利潤狀況。我們預計第四季度的自由現金流表現強勁，同時我們繼續面臨一些外部阻力，包括美元升值和俄羅斯業務的退出。

In terms of segment performance for 2022, our view of Software has been consistent all year. We continue to expect revenue growth in line with our mid-single-digit model range, plus 5 to 6 points from sales to Kyndryl. And we still see Software pretax margin in the mid-20s range for 2022. Our IBM Consulting revenue growth has been great, and we're taking our view up to a mid-teens revenue growth rate for the year. While we're still operating in a competitive labor environment, we see some encouraging signs in our Consulting margin profile exiting the third quarter. We now expect a Consulting pretax margin for the year at the low end of our previous 9% to 10% range, which is up about 1 point year-to-year.

就 2022 年的細分市場表現而言，我們對軟件的看法全年保持一致。我們繼續預計收入增長與我們的中個位數模型範圍一致，加上對 Kyndryl 的銷售增加 5 到 6 個百分點。而且我們仍然認為 2022 年軟件稅前利潤率在 20 多歲左右。我們的 IBM 諮詢收入增長非常好，我們認為今年的收入增長率將達到十幾歲左右。儘管我們仍在競爭激烈的勞動力環境中運營，但我們在第三季度的諮詢利潤率概況中看到了一些令人鼓舞的跡象。我們現在預計今年的諮詢業稅前利潤率處於我們之前 9% 至 10% 範圍的低端，同比增長約 1 個百分點。

Our Infrastructure revenue performance, as always, reflects product cycle dynamics. With the strong launch of our z16 earlier this year, Infrastructure revenue performance will be above the model level for the year, and that's before the 5 to 6 points from sales to Kyndryl. We expect Infrastructure pretax margin in the mid-teens.

我們的基礎設施收入表現一如既往地反映了產品週期動態。隨著我們今年早些時候 z16 的強勢推出，基礎設施收入表現將高於今年的模型水平，而這還沒有從銷售到 Kyndryl 的 5 到 6 個點之前。我們預計基礎設施稅前利潤率在十幾歲左右。

Looking specifically at the fourth quarter, we expect all-in constant currency revenue growth at the high end of the mid-single-digit range. At current spot rates, currency translation has increased to an 8- to 9-point headwind to revenue growth in the fourth quarter. That's up 2 to 3 points from 90 days ago. And then I'll remind you, in a couple of weeks, we'll reach the anniversary of our separation of Kyndryl. While the external sales to Kyndryl will remain in our revenue and profit base, we've essentially wrapped around the year-to-year contribution to our revenue and profit growth and margin expansion.

特別是在第四季度，我們預計全部不變貨幣收入增長在中個位數範圍的高端。按照目前的即期匯率，貨幣換算對第四季度的收入增長構成了 8 到 9 個百分點的阻力。這比 90 天前增加了 2 到 3 個點。然後我會提醒你，再過幾週，我們就會迎來我們與 Kyndryl 分居的周年紀念日。雖然對 Kyndryl 的外部銷售將保留在我們的收入和利潤基礎中，但我們基本上已經圍繞對我們的收入和利潤增長以及利潤率擴張的年度貢獻進行了總結。

As we enter the fourth quarter, we look forward to closing out our first calendar year of today's IBM. As always, we'll provide a view of 2023 during our fourth quarter earnings report in January. Patricia, now let's go on to the Q&A.

隨著我們進入第四季度，我們期待著結束今天 IBM 的第一個日曆年。與往常一樣，我們將在 1 月份的第四季度收益報告中提供 2023 年的視圖。 Patricia，現在讓我們繼續問答環節。

Thank you, Jim. Before we begin the Q&A, I'd like to mention a couple of items: first, supplemental information is provided at the end of the presentation; and second, as always, I'd ask you to refrain from multipart questions. Operator, let's please open it up for questions.

謝謝你，吉姆。在我們開始問答之前，我想提幾點：首先，在演示結束時提供補充信息；其次，和往常一樣，我會要求你不要提出多部分問題。接線員，讓我們打開它來提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our first question will come from Amit Daryanani with Evercore.

我們的第一個問題將來自 Evercore 的 Amit Daryanani。

And a really impressive set of numbers, especially from a revenue perspective over here. I guess, Arvind, maybe the question is for you, but there's a lot of anxiety, I think, among investors in the markets in terms of what the macro situation is and what it means for IT spending going forward. I'd love to get your perspective. What are you hearing from your customers as they think about their IT budgets going forward? How does that look? And are they focusing on different things going forward versus what they've done historically from an IBM's portfolio perspective? Would love to just get a sense on what are you hearing from your customers in aggregate. And then if you could even -- how does Consulting shake up in a more challenging macro environment, it will be really helpful because the growth rate so far there has been well above the long-term trends.

還有一組非常令人印象深刻的數字，尤其是從收入的角度來看。我想，Arvind，也許這個問題是給你的，但我認為，市場投資者對於宏觀形勢是什麼以及這對未來的 IT 支出意味著什麼感到非常焦慮。我很想听聽你的看法。當您的客戶考慮未來的 IT 預算時，您從他們那裡聽到了什麼？看起來怎麼樣？從 IBM 的投資組合的角度來看，他們關注的是不同的事情，而不是他們過去所做的事情？很想了解您從客戶那裡聽到的總體情況。然後，如果您甚至可以 - 諮詢如何在更具挑戰性的宏觀環境中動搖，這將非常有幫助，因為迄今為止的增長率遠高於長期趨勢。

Yes. Amit, thank you. Thank you both for the comment and those questions. So let me answer the first part, how do we feel about revenue and demand going forward? First, if you just look at the data going backwards, we see pretty strong demand and we saw double-digit growth in Europe, double-digit growth in Asia and double-digit growth in the Americas.

是的。阿米特，謝謝。謝謝你們的評論和這些問題。那麼讓我回答第一部分，我們對未來的收入和需求有何看法？首先，如果你只看數據倒退，我們看到需求相當強勁，我們看到歐洲有兩位數的增長，亞洲有兩位數的增長，美洲有兩位數的增長。

But let me add some color on that as we look forward. And it is with a couple of contextual elements, as you said, on your portfolio. One, we are B2B. We have almost no B2C business, as if almost no, I could say none, but there is the weather business which has got a little bit of element of B2C in it, but it's tiny. So one is B2B.

但是，讓我在我們期待的時候添加一些顏色。正如你所說，它在你的投資組合中有幾個上下文元素。一，我們是B2B。我們幾乎沒有B2C業務，好像幾乎沒有，我可以說沒有，但是有氣象業務，裡面有一點B2C的元素，但是很小。所以一個是B2B。

Second, we've done a lot of work over the last 3 years, and our portfolio is largely in mission-critical areas, areas that are around automation, areas that are about leveraging AI for enterprise productivity. And I think that, that productivity theme is going to play out over actually not just this remaining part of this year but for the next half decade, maybe the full decade.

其次，我們在過去 3 年中做了很多工作，我們的產品組合主要集中在關鍵任務領域、自動化領域、利用人工智能提高企業生產力的領域。而且我認為，生產力主題實際上不僅會在今年剩下的時間裡發揮作用，而且會在接下來的五年，也許是整個十年中發揮作用。

Color. In the Americas, I find a very robust business environment. I find that most enterprises want to invest. They are leveraging technology to scale their business. If I go to Asia, it's very similar. Very little change from the past, I think going into the next few months, at least. In Europe, I think we shouldn't put our head in the sand. I think that with the mixture of energy and inflation, you can sense that there is some caution creeping into the conversations, albeit not in the data and not yet in what we are doing as business there. But we'd be foolish not to prepare that there could be a bit of a downturn in Europe only.

顏色。在美洲，我發現了非常穩健的商業環境。我發現大多數企業都想投資。他們正在利用技術來擴展業務。如果我去亞洲，情況非常相似。與過去相比變化很小，我認為至少在接下來的幾個月裡。在歐洲，我認為我們不應該把頭埋在沙子裡。我認為，隨著能源和通貨膨脹的混合，你可以感覺到談話中出現了一些謹慎，儘管不是在數據中，也不是在我們在那裡開展的業務中。但如果我們不准備只在歐洲出現一些低迷，我們將是愚蠢的。

But let me now put all of that back into context. So you're saying Americas, Asia, fine. If I get to Europe, Western Europe, ballpark 20% of global GDP. Even if you have a massive impact, 5% to 10%, that's a 1% to 2% impact on a global level all-in. Technology is typically 3% to 4% ahead of GDP growth. That says there's still a robust technology environment in there. So I think, Amit, that's the sort of the 2 parts of your question that we're addressing with that.

但是，現在讓我把所有這些重新放到上下文中。所以你說美洲，亞洲，沒問題。如果我去歐洲，西歐，大概佔全球 GDP 的 20%。即使你有 5% 到 10% 的巨大影響，這在全球範圍內也會產生 1% 到 2% 的影響。技術通常領先 GDP 增長 3% 到 4%。也就是說，那裡仍然有一個強大的技術環境。所以我認為，阿米特，這就是我們要解決的問題的兩個部分。

Our next question will come from Toni Sacconaghi with Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題將來自托尼·薩科納吉和伯恩斯坦。

You saw really strong strength in mainframe, which I think was not anticipated 90 days ago, and you also saw a really commensurately strong transaction processing quarter. And I'm wondering whether you saw some strong ELAs in the quarter and maybe you could put that in context in terms of what ELA percentage was in Transaction Processing. And then separately, Arvind, given how strong the cycle is and given your comments about Europe, are you still comfortable about delivering mid-single-digit growth in 2023?

您看到大型機的實力非常強勁，我認為這是 90 天前沒有預料到的，您還看到了一個非常強勁的交易處理季度。而且我想知道您是否在本季度看到了一些強大的 ELA，也許您可以根據交易處理中的 ELA 百分比來說明這一點。另外，Arvind 考慮到週期的強勁程度以及您對歐洲的評論，您是否仍然對在 2023 年實現中個位數增長感到滿意？

Okay. Toni, this is Jim. I'll take the first part of the question. Arvind can wrap up about our portfolio and the confidence we have in positioning 2023. When you take a look at our third quarter performance, we're obviously very pleased with the entire IBM team and what we've been able to execute, continuing to instantiate the value of today's IBM, which is a very focused hybrid cloud and AI platform company.

好的。托尼，這是吉姆。我將回答問題的第一部分。 Arvind 可以總結一下我們的產品組合以及我們對 2023 年定位的信心。當您查看我們第三季度的業績時，我們顯然對整個 IBM 團隊以及我們能夠執行的工作感到非常滿意，並繼續實例化當今 IBM 的價值，這是一家非常專注的混合雲和 AI 平台公司。

But let's dial back 90 days ago. 90 days ago, we said all in, we were going to be at high single-digit revenue growth, and we were going to generate about 200 basis points of operating leverage. When you now play that picture of what played out in the third quarter, we are capitalizing on that focused IBM hybrid cloud AI strategy and capitalizing on the accelerated demand from our clients that Arvind talked about up front. And we're getting revenue dollar contribution that is falling to the bottom line. With regards to profit, our profit's up 23%.

但是讓我們撥回 90 天前。 90 天前，我們全力以赴，我們將實現高個位數的收入增長，我們將產生約 200 個基點的運營槓桿。當您現在播放第三季度發生的情況時，我們正在利用專注於 IBM 混合雲 AI 戰略，並利用 Arvind 預先談到的客戶的加速需求。我們得到的收入貢獻正在下降到底線。在利潤方面，我們的利潤增長了 23%。

Now with that said, when you look at the profile of the contribution, it was very pervasive and broad-based. It was double-digit growth across all 3 of our major segments and double-digit growth across all of our markets around the world. And within that, Software contributed about 3 points of growth ex Red Hat to IBM, Consulting delivered about 5 points of growth, and Infrastructure delivered about 3 points of growth to IBM.

話雖如此，當您查看貢獻的概況時，它非常普遍且基礎廣泛。我們所有三個主要細分市場均實現了兩位數的增長，我們在全球所有市場均實現了兩位數的增長。其中，除紅帽外，軟件為 IBM 貢獻了約 3 個增長點，諮詢為 IBM 貢獻了約 5 個增長點，基礎設施為 IBM 貢獻了約 3 個增長點。

And within Infrastructure, to your question on mainframe, mainframe basically came in about exactly what we guided to 90 days ago. Remember, we talked about at length the first time in 20 years that we announced a mainframe, new innovation in a second quarter and how it was going to change the seasonality of that business. And we had a very strong second quarter, which by the way, we took up revenue guidance in April 4. We talked about 90 days ago how third quarter was going to play out and fourth quarter, and we pretty much executed to that. So we feel pretty good about our book of business. So Arvind, turning over to you.

在基礎設施中，對於您關於大型機的問題，大型機基本上與我們在 90 天前指導的內容完全一致。請記住，我們 20 年來第一次詳細討論了我們在第二季度宣布推出大型機、新的創新以及它將如何改變該業務的季節性。我們有一個非常強勁的第二季度，順便說一句，我們在 4 月 4 日接受了收入指導。我們在 90 天前談到了第三季度和第四季度的表現，我們幾乎執行了。所以我們對我們的業務手冊感覺很好。所以Arvind，交給你了。

Yes. Thanks, Jim. So turning to sort of address the questions. Last October, we talked about that we are going to be in a mid-single-digit revenue growth model, and that we'll be increasing cash flow each year. And we have set out a target of $10 billion for this year and $35 billion over the period. There is nothing that we see right now to alter us from where we had said at that time. So I'm going to say that those projections stay in place.

是的。謝謝，吉姆。所以轉向解決問題。去年 10 月，我們談到我們將處於中個位數的收入增長模式，並且我們將每年增加現金流。我們已經設定了今年 100 億美元和期間 350 億美元的目標。我們現在看到的任何東西都無法改變我們當時所說的。所以我要說這些預測保持不變。

As Jim pointed out, for 2022, we are saying that we will be above our revenue model. And that, we believe, will play out with the demand that you heard me talk about and then Jim just reinforced. Just a little thought, the third quarter is not typically a big ELA quarter, so we should just be -- it's kind of the normal seasonality. ELAs are really second and fourth, much more than first and third.

正如吉姆指出的那樣，到 2022 年，我們將超越我們的收入模式。而且，我們相信，這將與您聽到我談論的需求一起發揮作用，然後吉姆只是加強了。稍微想一想，第三季度通常不是 ELA 的大季度，所以我們應該只是——這是一種正常的季節性。 ELA 確實是第二和第四，遠遠超過第一和第三。

So just to give you a little bit of color and add to what you asked and what Jim said, mainframe hardware has had a strong start, so you would expect the capacity increases. As the capacity increases, you expect that to follow with a tiny lag, sometimes a month, sometimes 3 months into our Transaction Processing portfolio. And that's why you kind of see the strength there.

所以只是給你一點顏色，並補充你的問題和 Jim 所說的內容，大型機硬件已經有了一個強勁的開端，所以你可以預期容量會增加。隨著容量的增加，您預計在我們的事務處理產品組合中會出現微小的延遲，有時是一個月，有時是 3 個月。這就是為什麼你會看到那裡的力量。

Our next question comes from Wamsi Mohan with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Wamsi Mohan。

Congrats on the solid results. Arvind, can you talk about what you're seeing in the more transactional parts of the business in the context of particularly Q4, which is your largest transactional quarter? Any change in pipeline or conversion rates of that pipeline? Any color there would be helpful. And if I could, maybe, Jim, on the cumulative free cash flow that you guys just endorsed. How should we think about the step-up in cash flow? And what would be the key drivers of that outside of the top line growth conversion? What are the other moving pieces that would help in bridging that gap?

恭喜您取得了可靠的結果。 Arvind，您能否談談您在業務的更多交易部分中看到的情況，特別是第四季度，這是您最大的交易季度？該管道的管道或轉化率有什麼變化？那裡的任何顏色都會有幫助。如果我可以的話，吉姆，關於你們剛剛認可的累積自由現金流。我們應該如何看待現金流的增加？除了收入增長轉換之外，什麼是關鍵驅動因素？其他有助於彌合這一差距的因素是什麼？

So Wamsi, let me start and then give it to Jim, but I'm also going to reinforce a couple of points that Jim made in his prepared remarks. On transactional business, look, I can't speak to the yield. I can speak to the yield about 10 weeks from now. The yield will come in over the next 10 weeks as opposed to right now.

所以Wamsi，讓我開始，然後把它交給Jim，但我還要強調Jim 在他準備好的發言中所說的幾點。在交易業務上，看，我無法談論收益。我可以談論大約 10 週後的收益率。收益將在未來 10 週內出現，而不是現在。

If I look at our pipeline, pipeline indicates the strength that we are seeing. That does give us confidence to say that we see revenue coming in above our mid-single-digit growth model. We see the pipelines are strong across software and hardware. So the very strong hardware growth in the third quarter that is captured in the Infrastructure business, I think that all reflects the demand that is there and across geographies, so not any particular single market being strong.

如果我查看我們的管道，管道表明我們所看到的實力。這確實讓我們有信心說我們看到收入高於我們的中個位數增長模式。我們看到管道在軟件和硬件方面都很強大。因此，基礎設施業務在第三季度獲得了非常強勁的硬件增長，我認為這一切都反映了那里和跨地區的需求，因此沒有任何特定的單一市場表現強勁。

If I look at the software, I expect that the overall growth will remain strong, but there'll be some puts and takes in a couple of small countries that's possible. But that is the advantage of having a business that goes across 170 countries where that tends to get absorbed into the overall. Right now, I'll tell you, good pipeline. Based on the first 9 months of the year, we expect yields to remain good or even better than before, and that's the space.

如果我看一下該軟件，我預計整體增長將保持強勁，但在幾個小國家可能會有一些放量和放量。但這就是擁有跨越 170 個國家/地區的業務的優勢，這些國家往往會被整體所吸收。現在，我會告訴你，好的管道。根據今年前 9 個月，我們預計收益率將保持良好甚至比以前更好，這就是空間。

And I'll just make a comment. I would like to say, as Jim pointed out in his prepared remarks, that there is an impact on FX. That is probably the biggest impact to what we are seeing right now. I certainly, I'll say, hope that we are seeing the end of the dollar strengthening as opposed to another significant change.

我只是發表評論。正如吉姆在他準備好的講話中指出的那樣，我想說的是，這對外匯有影響。這可能是對我們現在所看到的最大影響。我會說，我當然希望我們看到美元走強的結束，而不是另一個重大變化。

Yes. So Wamsi, to that point, as you know, our 2 key measures of success since Arvind has taken over as Chairman and CEO has been revenue growth profile, converting this portfolio into a sustainable growth orientation; and second, free cash flow generation, so we can have the financial flexibility to continue to invest in our business. And on that, we said maintaining guidance of about $10 billion.

是的。因此，Wamsi，如您所知，自 Arvind 接任董事長兼首席執行官以來，我們衡量成功的兩個關鍵指標是收入增長概況，將這一投資組合轉變為可持續增長方向；其次，產生自由現金流，因此我們可以擁有財務靈活性來繼續投資於我們的業務。在這方面，我們說維持約 100 億美元的指導。

I'll remind everyone, that $10 billion is up over $3 billion year-to-year, first. And it's up $2 billion from what we published as IBM's post-separation baseline when you normalize out all the Kyndryl-related activity. So as we spoke about and Arvind just kind of concluded before he turned it over to me, 90 days ago, this takes into account the external headwinds we've been talking about this year: one, being the orderly wind down and the exit of our Russia business, which we've already taken into account and we've been transforming our business and cost structure to take into account losing that high-value profit and cash; and second is the continuing strengthening of the U.S. dollar.

我要提醒大家，首先，100 億美元同比增長超過 30 億美元。當您將所有與 Kyndryl 相關的活動標準化時，它比我們作為 IBM 的分離後基線發布的增加了 20 億美元。因此，正如我們所說的，Arvind 在 90 天前把它交給我之前就得出了結論，這考慮到了我們今年一直在談論的外部逆風：第一，有序的風平浪靜和退出我們的俄羅斯業務，我們已經考慮到了這一點，我們一直在改變我們的業務和成本結構，以考慮到失去高價值的利潤和現金；二是美元持續走強。

Now the latter, let's be honest, it definitely puts pressure on our midterm outlook. But we're 3 quarters into that midterm outlook right now. We do have a robust hedging program as we are not immune. I mean, we do business in 170 countries around the world, over 100 currencies. As we talked about 90 days ago, we do not hedge 100% of our currencies. And second, we don't hedge out more than 12 months, very important point. So currency is a real impact to profit and cash overall.

老實說，後者肯定會給我們的中期前景帶來壓力。但我們現在已經進入中期展望的三個季度。我們確實有一個強大的對沖計劃，因為我們不能倖免。我的意思是，我們在全球 170 個國家開展業務，使用 100 多種貨幣。正如我們在 90 天前談到的那樣，我們不會 100% 對沖我們的貨幣。其次，我們不會對沖超過 12 個月，這一點非常重要。因此，貨幣對整體利潤和現金產生了真正的影響。

Now we hedge to provide us time to take the operational actions. That's price, that's sourcing strategies, that's cost structure and the productivity initiatives that Arvind and I have put within the business. So right now, it's early in this midterm outlook. We've got a headwind on the U.S. dollar until it stabilizes. We are taking the appropriate actions. But let's be honest, we are all focused on completing 2022.

現在我們對沖為我們提供時間來採取行動。這就是價格、採購策略、成本結構以及我和 Arvind 在業務中投入的生產力計劃。所以現在，這個中期前景還處於早期階段。在美元企穩之前，我們對美元不利。我們正在採取適當的行動。但老實說，我們都專注於完成 2022 年。

We have a very big fourth quarter in front of us. We've got to do roughly $6 billion of free cash flow in the quarter. That's about 60% of our free cash flow. By the way, to put that in perspective, from 2017 to 2020, we did at or better than $6 billion of free cash flow. So we've got the right portfolio, we've got the right set of operational actions and that's what we're focused on. Where are we going to get that headwind/tailwind?

我們面前有一個非常大的第四季度。我們必須在本季度實現大約 60 億美元的自由現金流。這大約是我們自由現金流的 60%。順便說一句，從 2017 年到 2020 年，我們的自由現金流達到或超過了 60 億美元。所以我們有正確的投資組合，我們有正確的運營行動，這就是我們所關注的。我們將在哪裡獲得逆風/順風？

One, we completed our structural action, so that's all behind us, and we'll continue to get the Kyndryl tailwind for the next 3 months. Second, we expect a very solid working capital quarter with regards to the mainframe cycle and the pure volume dynamics of what's happening with our accelerated revenue growth profile. And third, we're going to continue driving a higher revenue profile, get operating cash out of that by driving operating leverage in our business. So that's what our focus is on, completing 2022, and we will talk in January about where we're at and where the dollar's at.

一，我們完成了我們的結構性行動，所以這一切都已經過去了，我們將在接下來的 3 個月內繼續獲得 Kyndryl 的順風。其次，就大型機週期和我們加速收入增長情況所發生的純數量動態而言，我們預計營運資金季度將非常穩健。第三，我們將繼續推動更高的收入狀況，通過提高我們業務的運營槓桿來從中獲得運營現金。所以這就是我們的重點，完成 2022 年，我們將在 1 月份討論我們所處的位置以及美元的位置。

Our next question will come from Erik Woodring with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的 Erik Woodring。

Congrats on a really nice quarter here. I wanted to talk about the Consulting business. I thought margins held up better than expected in the quarter. So can you maybe just elaborate on where you found success repricing contracts, where you've maybe had some challenges, either by end market or by geography? Are those pricing increases keeping pace with dollar strength? Would love if you could just double-click on some of the pricing actions and the success that you're having and where and why and how.

恭喜這裡有一個非常好的季度。我想談談諮詢業務。我認為本季度的利潤率保持得好於預期。那麼，您能否詳細說明您在哪裡找到了成功的重新定價合同，您可能在哪裡遇到了一些挑戰，無論是終端市場還是地理位置？這些價格上漲是否與美元走強保持同步？如果您可以雙擊某些定價操作和您所擁有的成功以及在哪裡、為什麼以及如何獲得成功，將會很高興。

Yes. Erik, thank you very much. I appreciate the question and I appreciate the compliments, and I'm sure the entire IBM team has worked extremely hard. Pleased with this quarter. But let's talk about Consulting. We talked all year long. Remember, you dialed back to January. We were talking about what we were seeing in the marketplace about an accelerating demand profile driven by our clients' digital transformations journey to cloud and that we were going to invest up front and get ahead of that demand profile, both in skills, capabilities, ecosystems, acquisitions.

是的。埃里克，非常感謝。我很欣賞這個問題，也很欣賞你的讚美，我相信整個 IBM 團隊都非常努力地工作。對這個季度很滿意。但是讓我們談談諮詢。我們聊了一整年。請記住，您撥回了一月。我們談論的是我們在市場上看到的情況，即由客戶的數字化轉型之旅推動的需求加速增長，我們將在技能、能力、生態系統方面進行預先投資並領先於這種需求。 ，收購。

Why? Because Consulting plays an integral part to our hybrid cloud thesis. It is that tip of the spear. It drives the multiplier effect. It drags the scale and adoption to our hybrid cloud platform and it pulls our IBM technology. Now with that said, when you look at it, that investment profile, coupled with a highly inflationary environment, we've seen pressure on our gross margin level throughout the year. But we've been making that up on an operating pretax margin because Consulting, along with our Infrastructure and Software, are yielding the benefits of a much more focused streamlined G&A structure now post-separation of Kyndryl, and a much more effective and aligned streamlined go-to-market model that's playing out.

為什麼？因為諮詢在我們的混合雲論文中扮演著不可或缺的角色。正是矛尖。它推動了乘數效應。它將規模和採用率拖到了我們的混合雲平台，並拉動了我們的 IBM 技術。話雖如此，當你看到它時，這種投資狀況，再加上高通脹環境，我們已經看到全年毛利率水平面臨壓力。但我們一直在通過稅前營業利潤率彌補這一點，因為諮詢以及我們的基礎設施和軟件正在產生一個更加集中的精簡 G&A 結構的好處，現在是在 Kyndryl 分離後，以及更加有效和一致的精簡走向市場的模式正在發揮作用。

But when you look at it, 3Q year-to-date, our revenue profile is growing high teens. We're getting dollar contribution and we're seeing 3Q year-to-date about 30 basis points' worth of margin. Now as I said in the prepared remarks, we talked about 3 core actions throughout the year: acquisitions, utilization, price. And around those, we saw green shoots exiting third quarter. Our acquisitions right now, we're on a steady state where they're going to be margin accretive in the fourth quarter.

但是，從今年以來的第三季度來看，我們的收入狀況正在增長。我們得到了美元的貢獻，我們看到今年第三季度的保證金價值約為 30 個基點。現在，正如我在準備好的評論中所說，我們討論了全年的 3 個核心行動：收購、利用、價格。圍繞這些，我們看到了第三季度的綠芽。我們現在的收購，我們處於穩定狀態，他們將在第四季度增加利潤。

Second, we exited the quarter in a pretty challenging seasonal quarter of a third quarter with higher utilization. That's a great sign. And third, for the second quarter in a row, we got price optimization and price margins that are up. That has led to our sequential improvement in margins from 2Q to 3Q by 3 points, and by the way, we expect that to continue in the fourth quarter, margins up sequentially and year-to-year.

其次，我們在第三季度的一個非常具有挑戰性的季節性季度中以更高的利用率退出了該季度。這是一個好兆頭。第三，連續第二個季度，我們實現了價格優化和價格利潤率上升。這導致我們從第二季度到第三季度的利潤率連續提高了 3 個百分點，順便說一句，我們預計第四季度將繼續這種情況，利潤率將連續和同比上升。

And that price optimization really, as you would expect, always translates back into the value proposition of your offerings. Where we have value in application modernization, Red Hat, our hyperscaler and strategic partnerships, we're seeing a nice margin accretion that's playing out, and that's going to fuel the fourth quarter here and first half of 2023.

正如您所期望的那樣，這種價格優化確實會轉化為您產品的價值主張。我們在應用程序現代化、紅帽、我們的超大規模和戰略合作夥伴方面具有價值的地方，我們看到了一個不錯的利潤增長，這將推動第四季度和 2023 年上半年。

Our next question comes from Shannon Cross with Credit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Shannon Cross。

I'm curious, just from an acquisition perspective, you talked about the small acquisitions you've made during the year. How are you thinking about maybe a larger acquisition? It's been a while since obviously with Red Hat. And almost more importantly, I'm wondering, as you think about your capital allocation, and I know you committed to what you -- the $10 billion for this year, but how do you -- how does the higher interest rate environment play into how you're thinking about what you might do and how you expect your balance sheet to look on a longer-term basis.

我很好奇，僅從收購的角度來看，您談到了您在這一年中進行的小型收購。您如何考慮可能進行更大的收購？顯然，Red Hat 已經有一段時間了。更重要的是，我想知道，當你考慮你的資本分配時，我知道你承諾了你今年的 100 億美元，但是你如何 - 高利率環境如何發揮作用您如何考慮您可能會做的事情以及您期望您的資產負債表從長遠來看如何。

Shannon, let me start by this thing. First, let me explain our rationale and our principles for acquisitions because it's important to understand that it's not so much size. Number one, they've got to fit our strategy, our strategy being hybrid cloud and AI, and in Consulting, those which add to our ecosystem growth and our talent. So that limits the universe of what we would look at.

香農，讓我從這件事開始。首先，讓我解釋一下我們收購的理由和原則，因為重要的是要理解它的規模並不大。第一，他們必須符合我們的戰略，我們的戰略是混合雲和人工智能，而在諮詢領域，這些戰略可以增加我們的生態系統增長和人才。所以這限制了我們所看到的宇宙。

Two, especially if it's going to be larger, it's got to be accretive. Whether we talk about at the end of the first year or definitely in the second year, it's got to be accretive to cash flow. Three, there's got to be synergy with IBM. Like Jim mentioned about the $6 billion in inception-to-date signings and the 1,400 projects that Consulting did with Red Hat, that's synergy, meaning that we would not have gotten that revenue and that book of business if we had not done that acquisition.

第二，特別是如果它要更大，它必須是增值的。無論我們是在第一年年底還是在第二年談論，它都必須增加現金流。第三，必須與 IBM 形成協同效應。就像 Jim 提到的 60 億美元的簽約以及諮詢公司與 Red Hat 進行的 1,400 個項目一樣，這就是協同效應，這意味著如果我們沒有進行那次收購，我們就不會獲得那筆收入和那本商業賬簿。

So then if I say that those are criteria, those will be a criteria that would open up if there is something that is larger, with the correct valuation and the correct economic returns for the company. Now to your point on interest rates. Certainly, interest rates have an impact, but we'd also like to say there are multiple vehicles on how to raise cash because the overall FINFLEX, and we had talked about, about $20 billion of FINFLEX over the period, but there are other vehicles for also raising cash when we are an attractive target for the acquisition to come into. Jim?

因此，如果我說這些是標準，那麼如果有更大的東西，為公司提供正確的估值和正確的經濟回報，這些將是一個開放的標準。現在談談利率。當然，利率會產生影響，但我們還想說，如何籌集現金有多種工具，因為整個 FINFLEX，我們已經談到，在此期間大約有 200 億美元的 FINFLEX，但還有其他工具當我們成為收購的有吸引力的目標時，也可以籌集現金。吉姆?

Yes. No, I would just add to the last point on the interest rate environment. Shannon, as you saw during this year, we've been prudent, I think, in hindsight now. It's always better to be lucky and opportunistic because we went out to the market and basically have pre-funded all of our requirements, for the most part, in 2023 already. We issued $4 billion of debt in February. And just recently in July, we issued $3.25 billion worth of debt. So we feel pretty good about our capital structure. 2023 is pretty much taken care of, which is our largest maturity tower when you think about $6.4 billion and then it steps down from there in 2024 and 2025. So we feel pretty good about that.

是的。不，我只想補充關於利率環境的最後一點。香農，正如你在今年看到的那樣，我認為，事後看來，我們一直很謹慎。幸運和投機總是更好，因為我們已經進入市場並且基本上已經在 2023 年預先為我們的所有需求提供了資金。我們在 2 月份發行了 40 億美元的債務。就在最近的 7 月，我們發行了價值 32.5 億美元的債務。所以我們對我們的資本結構感覺很好。 2023 年得到了很好的照顧，這是我們最大的成熟度塔，當您考慮 64 億美元時，它會在 2024 年和 2025 年從那裡下降。所以我們對此感覺很好。

Our next question comes from Keith Bachman with BMO.

我們的下一個問題來自 BMO 的 Keith Bachman。

And echo the congratulations on the strategic direction. Jim, I just wanted to see if you could provide a clarification. What was the M&A contribution this quarter? And if you could give any distinction on the M&A contribution to Software. And then my broader question is -- relates to going back to services. The signings was down about 2% in constant currency for the quarter. How do you anticipate signings unfolding? And what does that portend for next year's growth, particularly as we look at a bumpier economy, particularly in Europe?

並對戰略方向表示祝賀。吉姆，我只是想看看你能不能澄清一下。本季度的併購貢獻是多少？如果您可以對軟件的併購貢獻做出任何區分。然後我更廣泛的問題是——與回歸服務有關。該季度的簽約人數按固定匯率計算下降了約 2%。您如何預期簽約展開？這對明年的增長意味著什麼，尤其是當我們看到一個更加崎嶇不平的經濟時，尤其是在歐洲？

And so Arvind, you mentioned that you're affirming the mid-single-digit total revenue growth. But if you could just talk a little bit about the services business, in particular, which I think is -- perhaps has a bit more risk associated with some of the Consulting activities in a tougher economic climate.

所以Arvind，你提到你肯定了中等個位數的總收入增長。但是，如果您可以談談服務業務，尤其是我認為的服務業務，那麼在更嚴峻的經濟環境中，與某些諮詢活動相關的風險可能會更大一些。

Keith, I'll take the front end of this, and then Arvind can talk about the environment and our services portfolio overall. Really getting right to it, our inorganic contribution in the quarter to IBM was about 1 point worth of growth overall. When you take a look at that, we grew 6.5 at actual rates, roughly 15% at constant currency, 5 points of that being Kyndryl year-to-year contribution, so read that, about 10 points worth of growth. One point of that came out of acquisitions.

基思，我會講到這個前端，然後 Arvind 可以談談環境和我們的整體服務組合。真正正確的是，我們在本季度對 IBM 的無機貢獻約為 1 個百分點的整體增長。當你看一看，我們以實際利率增長了 6.5，按固定匯率計算大約增長了 15%，其中 5 個百分點是 Kyndryl 的同比貢獻，所以請閱讀，大約 10 個百分點的增長。其中一點來自收購。

Underneath that, it's still about 2 points in Consulting, which we're seeing nice scale of the Consulting acquisitions. And again, as I said on the previous question, we do see margin accretion as we kind of get to a stabilized level of our acquisition. And to Software basically rounded to 0. It's all organic growth. Software had a very strong quarter, 14% growth at constant currency. About 8 points of that being Kyndryl. That is all organic because we wrapped on our Turbonomic acquisition, which, by the way, still has done extremely well. So the currency, the -- or excuse me, the inorganic component is pretty much on a sustainable basis right now overall.

在這之下，它仍然是諮詢公司的 2 分左右，我們看到諮詢公司收購的規模很大。再一次，正如我在上一個問題上所說，隨著我們的收購達到穩定水平，我們確實看到了利潤增長。和軟件基本上四捨五入到0。這都是有機增長。軟件的季度表現非常強勁，按固定匯率計算增長了 14%。其中大約 8 分是 Kyndryl。這一切都是有機的，因為我們完成了對 Turbonomic 的收購，順便說一句，它仍然做得非常好。所以貨幣，或者對不起，無機成分現在總體上幾乎是可持續的。

Before I turn it over to Arvind, let's just talk a little bit about what we see underneath signings. First of all, we still have, we believe, a solid book-to-bill on a trailing 12 months. It's 1.05. And remember, that's maintaining a book-to-bill in excess of 1 on very strong revenue contribution, 5 consecutive quarters of double-digit growth. And year-to-date, we're up in the high teens overall.

在我把它交給 Arvind 之前，讓我們先談談我們在引援下看到的東西。首先，我們相信，在過去的 12 個月裡，我們仍然擁有可靠的賬面收貨率。現在是 1.05。請記住，在非常強勁的收入貢獻，連續 5 個季度實現兩位數增長的情況下，訂單出貨比保持在 1 以上。年初至今，我們總體上處於青少年時期。

So what are we seeing underneath? Because I think as I've said many times before, all signings are not alike and they all don't translate to revenue the same way. When we look at our strong demand, it's driven by application modernization, strategic partnerships. By the way, the velocity of our strategic partnership signings are up trailing 12 months, almost 25% to 30%, and it's about 40% of our business now. We're capturing that.

那麼我們在下面看到了什麼？因為我認為正如我之前多次說過的那樣，所有的簽約都不一樣，而且它們都不會以同樣的方式轉化為收入。當我們看到我們的強勁需求時，它是由應用程序現代化和戰略合作夥伴驅動的。順便說一句，我們戰略合作夥伴簽約的速度在過去 12 個月內上升，幾乎是 25% 到 30%，現在約占我們業務的 40%。我們正在捕捉它。

Red Hat inception to date, $6.6 billion, but it's really the small deal momentum. We're seeing the durations of our backlog come down a couple of months because our small deals, that's the volume-based business for 6 consecutive quarters in a row, we've had double-digit growth. And what does that mean? That has high revenue-yielding contribution end period. And that's what gives us the confidence, when we look at that backlog realization and how it plays out for fourth quarter, for us to commit the low double-digit revenue growth.

Red Hat 成立至今，價值 66 億美元，但這確實是一筆小買賣。我們看到我們的積壓持續時間下降了幾個月，因為我們的小額交易，這是連續 6 個季度基於數量的業務，我們實現了兩位數的增長。那是什麼意思？即具有高收入的貢獻期。當我們看到積壓的實現以及它在第四季度的表現時，這給了我們信心，讓我們承諾實現兩位數的低收入增長。

Yes. Thanks, Jim. So Keith, let me just maybe use the opportunity to remind everybody of what we had talked about as our midterm model, which was sort of the 3-year model that we laid out last October. We had said that we expect Software to grow in mid-single digits, so think 4% to 6%. And we had said Consulting to grow in high single digits, and we had said that Infrastructure will be about flat. This year will be a good year because of the product cycle and then probably somewhere in late '23 or '24, we'll get the flip side of that, up from this year.

是的。謝謝，吉姆。所以基思，讓我藉此機會提醒大家我們所說的中期模型，這是我們去年 10 月制定的 3 年模型。我們曾說過，我們預計軟件將以中個位數增長，所以認為 4% 到 6%。我們曾說過諮詢業將以高個位數增長，我們曾說過基礎設施將基本持平。由於產品週期，今年將是一個好年頭，然後可能在 23 年末或 24 年的某個時候，我們將從今年開始得到相反的一面。

So then you get into Consulting, our long-term model was not in the teens, which it has done this year. It was in the high single digits. So the book-to-bill, combined with the shorter-term signings, gives us confidence that we will be able to maintain that model. Look, I think Consulting to the point, I think you're all trying to ask, the nature of our Consulting business is very different than some others. The bulk of our Consulting business is in digital transformation, helping our clients move to cloud, not just our cloud, but AWS and Azure amongst it.

那麼你進入諮詢行業，我們的長期模式不是在青少年時期，今年它已經做到了。它處於高個位數。因此，訂單到賬單，再加上短期簽約，讓我們相信我們將能夠保持這種模式。看，我認為諮詢到了這一點，我想你們都想問，我們諮詢業務的性質與其他一些業務非常不同。我們的大部分諮詢業務都在數字化轉型中，幫助我們的客戶遷移到雲，不僅僅是我們的雲，還有 AWS 和 Azure。

It's on properties that I think are fairly essential to our clients. SAP, CRM, Adobe are great examples. As you begin to wrap around, help them move to cloud, both public and hybrid, help them do digital transformation, help them take advantage of these massive productivity SaaS properties that I just named. Even in an inflationary environment, even when the economy is not doing well, these tend to be the projects that stay the course, but maybe the signings come in smaller chunks, and as long as we deliver well, then people tend to sign up more and more going forward. And that's sort of a bit of color on what we're seeing play out already this year and we expect that to maybe increase next year.

這是我認為對我們的客戶來說相當重要的房產。 SAP、CRM、Adobe 就是很好的例子。當您開始環繞時，幫助他們遷移到公共雲和混合雲，幫助他們進行數字化轉型，幫助他們利用我剛剛提到的這些巨大的生產力 SaaS 屬性。即使在通貨膨脹的環境中，即使在經濟不景氣的情況下，這些項目也往往會堅持下去，但也許簽約的項目會小一些，只要我們交付得好，人們往往會簽約更多以及更多的未來。這對我們今年已經看到的情況有點色彩，我們預計明年可能會增加。

Thank you, Keith. Let's take 1 last question.

謝謝你，基思。讓我們回答最後一個問題。

Our last question will come from David Grossman with Stifel.

我們的最後一個問題將來自 Stifel 的 David Grossman。

I know we've covered a lot of ground already. And Jim, you've done a very good job of summarizing how you're going to get to that $10 billion of free cash flow for the year. I was wondering if I could just follow 1 thing up there though. Last quarter, I think you talked about $500 million to $700 million of structural actions, I think, in the 2022 free cash flow guide, if I'm remembering right, which should not reoccur. And I think we need to add to that the exit from Russia and FX, which I think you highlighted both. However, any chance you could help to mention those last 2 items so we could get just a better baseline going into next year?

我知道我們已經覆蓋了很多領域。吉姆，你在總結今年將如何獲得 100 億美元的自由現金流方面做得非常好。我想知道我是否可以在上面跟著一件事。上個季度，我認為您在 2022 年自由現金流指南中談到了 5 億至 7 億美元的結構性行動，如果我沒記錯的話，這種情況不應該再次發生。而且我認為我們需要補充從俄羅斯和外彙的退出，我認為你強調了兩者。但是，您是否有機會幫助提及最後兩項，以便我們在明年獲得更好的基線？

Yes, David, thank you, and thanks for the compliments. Really goes out to the entire IBM team overall. When you take a look at our free cash flow posture, one, I think we have quantified back in, earlier this year in April, about our Russia business. Orderly wind down, right decision, unfortunate humanitarian crisis that continues right now. But that was about a $300 million revenue profile and about a $200 million profit and cash profile overall.

是的，大衛，謝謝你，謝謝你的讚美。真的要向整個 IBM 團隊伸出援手。當您查看我們的自由現金流狀況時，我認為我們已經在今年 4 月初對我們的俄羅斯業務進行了量化。有序的結束，正確的決定，不幸的人道主義危機現在仍在繼續。但這大約是 3 億美元的收入概況和大約 2 億美元的利潤和現金概況。

As I said, yes, that's been an impact this year, which is one of the reasons why we went down to about $10 billion as we stated. But again, we've been taking -- knowing that decision, we've been taking the right operational actions to drive the productivity knowing that '23 and '24, we won't have that. So that's point number one.

正如我所說，是的，這對今年產生了影響，這就是我們所說的減少到大約 100 億美元的原因之一。但同樣，我們一直在採取 - 知道這個決定，我們一直在採取正確的運營行動來提高生產力，因為我們知道 23 年和 24 年我們不會那樣做。所以這是第一點。

Point number two, the structural actions, yes, north of $500 million. It's behind us this year. Remember, that becomes a tailwind in 2023 and 2024. That's why I've said multiple times before, free cash flow is not going to be linear when we look at 2022, 2023, 2024. One, we will have the wrap on that in '23, plus second, the exit cost of getting rid of that stranded cost, you get ROI on that activity overall.

第二點，結構性行動，是的，超過 5 億美元。今年它在我們身後。請記住，這將在 2023 年和 2024 年成為順風。這就是為什麼我之前多次說過，當我們查看 2022 年、2023 年、2024 年時，自由現金流不會是線性的。第一，我們將在'23，加上第二個，擺脫擱淺成本的退出成本，你可以從整個活動中獲得投資回報率。

The big wildcard, if you want to use it, is what's going to happen to the U.S. dollar. Now you see what's happened to us this year. This year, third quarter, let's put it in perspective. As I said, a little over 8-point gap between constant currency and actual rates, as you've seen in our backup charts, it's about a $1.1 billion revenue. By the way, that's about a $0.15 profit and EPS impact in the quarter that we've had to overcome operationally.

大通配符，如果你想使用它，就是美元將會發生什麼。現在你看看我們今年發生了什麼。今年，第三季度，讓我們把它放在眼裡。正如我所說，固定匯率和實際匯率之間的差距略高於 8 個百分點，正如您在我們的備用圖表中看到的那樣，這大約是 11 億美元的收入。順便說一句，這大約是我們必須在運營上克服的季度利潤和每股收益影響 0.15 美元。

Now that, again, will continue to the extent the U.S. dollar doesn't devalue over time. We are taking the appropriate measures. We're running our scenario models. We're stress-testing our business. We've got a long path into '23 and '24, but it's going to come from the actions I talked about: price, sourcing and cost structure. Each of those pieces are going to have to overcome that. And the beauty of our hedging program is it buys us time to smooth out the volatility of earnings right now. So we are focused on that. We'll talk a lot more about where we see the U.S. dollar 90 days from now and what that means for 2023 cash as we go forward.

現在，在美元不隨時間貶值的情況下，這種情況將繼續存在。我們正在採取適當的措施。我們正在運行我們的場景模型。我們正在對我們的業務進行壓力測試。我們在 23 和 24 年還有很長的路要走，但這將來自我談到的行動：價格、採購和成本結構。這些部分中的每一個都必須克服這一點。我們對沖計劃的美妙之處在於它為我們爭取了時間來消除當前收益的波動。所以我們專注於此。我們將更多地討論從現在起 90 天后我們在哪裡看到的美元，以及這對我們前進的 2023 年現金意味著什麼。

Now one last thing I want to put in place. That fourth quarter cash is very important, that $6 billion, give or take, in us delivering that about $10 billion. That is going to come out predominantly out of our operational profit driven by: one, that revenue growth at the high end of our model all in. By the way, anniversary of Kyndryl, we got 2 more weeks and we anniversary that. That is offset by basically Watson Health. So all-in, high single-digit model is a good representation of today's IBM.

現在我要完成的最後一件事。第四季度的現金非常重要，即 60 億美元，無論是給予還是接受，對我們交付大約 100 億美元而言都是非常重要的。這將主要來自我們的運營利潤，其驅動因素是：第一，我們模型高端的收入增長全部投入。順便說一句，Kyndryl 週年紀念日，我們還有 2 週的時間和我們的周年紀念日。這基本上被 Watson Health 所抵消。所以全押、高個位數的模型是當今 IBM 的一個很好的代表。

Second, we expect 2.5 points of operating margin in the fourth quarter. Why is that important? Yes, it's going to deliver that free cash flow in the fourth quarter, but it also gives the investor a perspective now that we're basically anniversary-ing the year-to-year contribution of Kyndryl, you see the healthy operating leverage at this portfolio now that we reposition can deliver. So with that, I'll turn it back over to Patricia.

其次，我們預計第四季度的營業利潤率為 2.5 個百分點。為什麼這很重要？是的，它將在第四季度提供自由現金流，但它也為投資者提供了一個視角，因為我們基本上是對 Kyndryl 的年度貢獻進行週年紀念，你會看到健康的經營槓桿在這個現在我們重新定位的投資組合可以交付。因此，我將把它交給帕特里夏。

Okay. Thanks, Jim. And I think Jim gave you a lot of color in this Q&A on cash flow, the quarter and how we think of our business going forward. Let me just wrap up the call.

好的。謝謝，吉姆。我認為吉姆在這個關於現金流、季度以及我們對未來業務的看法的問答中給了你很多色彩。讓我結束通話。

We have made really good progress since we laid out our strategy in our Investor Day last October. We are well positioned to meet our clients' needs going into the end of the year, and we look forward to taking you through our fourth quarter performance and our view of 2023 in January. I look forward to speaking to all of you again soon.

自從我們在去年 10 月的投資者日制定戰略以來，我們取得了非常好的進展。我們已經準備好在年底前滿足客戶的需求，我們期待在 1 月份帶您了解我們第四季度的業績和我們對 2023 年的看法。我期待很快再次與大家交談。

Sheila, let us turn it back over to you to close out the call.

希拉，讓我們把它交給你來結束通話。

Thank you. Thank you for participating on today's call. The conference has now ended. You may disconnect at this time.

謝謝你。感謝您參加今天的電話會議。會議現已結束。此時您可以斷開連接。