International Business Machines Corp (IBM) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome, and thank you for standing by. (Operator Instructions) Today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

歡迎，並感謝您的支持。 （操作員說明）今天的會議正在錄製中。 （操作員說明）

Now I will turn the meeting over to Ms. Patricia Murphy with IBM. Ma'am, you may begin.

現在我將把會議交給 IBM 的 Patricia Murphy 女士。女士，您可以開始了。

Thank you. This is Patricia Murphy, and I'd like to welcome you to IBM's Fourth Quarter 2021 Earnings Presentation. I'm here with Arvind Krishna, IBM's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Jim Kavanaugh, IBM's Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We'll post today's prepared remarks on the IBM investor website within a couple of hours, and a replay will be available by this time tomorrow.

謝謝你。我是 Patricia Murphy，歡迎您參加 IBM 2021 年第四季度財報發布會。我和 IBM 董事長兼首席執行官 Arvind Krishna 一起來到這裡。 IBM 高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Jim Kavanaugh。我們將在幾個小時內將今天準備好的評論發佈在 IBM 投資者網站上，明天這個時候將提供重播。

I'll remind you the separation of our managed infrastructure services business, Kyndryl, was completed on November 3. As a result, our income statement is presented on a continuing operations basis. Our results also reflect the incremental revenue from the new commercial relationship with Kyndryl. Because this provides a onetime lift to our growth, we will provide the contribution to our revenue growth for the next year.

我會提醒您，我們的託管基礎設施服務業務 Kyndryl 的分離已於 11 月 3 日完成。因此，我們的損益表是在持續經營的基礎上列報的。我們的結果還反映了與 Kyndryl 的新商業關係帶來的增量收入。因為這為我們的增長提供了一次性提升，我們將為明年的收入增長做出貢獻。

In the spirit of providing additional information to investors, our presentation also includes non-GAAP measures. For example, all of our references to revenue and signings growth are at constant currency. We have provided reconciliation charts for these and other non-GAAP measures at the end of the presentation and in the 8-K submitted to the SEC.

本著向投資者提供更多信息的精神，我們的演示文稿還包括非公認會計原則措施。例如，我們所有關於收入和簽約增長的參考都是按固定匯率計算的。我們在演示文稿結束時和提交給 SEC 的 8-K 中提供了這些和其他非 GAAP 措施的調節表。

Finally, some comments made in this presentation may be considered forward-looking under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements involve factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially. Additional information about these factors is included in the company's SEC filings.

最後，根據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》，本演示文稿中的一些評論可能被視為具有前瞻性。這些陳述涉及可能導致我們的實際結果出現重大差異的因素。有關這些因素的其他信息包含在公司提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中。

So with that, I'll turn the call over to Arvind.

因此，我將把電話轉給 Arvind。

Thank you, Patricia, and thanks to all of you for joining us today. Our fourth quarter results reinforce our confidence in our strategy and model. With solid revenue growth, we are on track to the mid-single-digit trajectory we had laid out in our investor briefing last October.

謝謝你，帕特里夏，謝謝你們今天加入我們。我們的第四季度業績增強了我們對戰略和模式的信心。憑藉穩健的收入增長，我們正步入去年 10 月投資者簡報中製定的中個位數軌跡。

The trend we see is clear. Across industries, clients see technology has a major source of competitive advantage. They realize that powerful technologies embedded at the heart of their business can lead to seismic shifts in the way they create value. This reality of technology being about a lot more than cost will persist and explains why clients are eager to leverage hybrid cloud and artificial intelligence to move their business forward.

我們看到的趨勢很明顯。在各個行業中，客戶都認為技術是競爭優勢的主要來源。他們意識到嵌入其業務核心的強大技術可以導致他們創造價值的方式發生翻天覆地的變化。這種技術遠超成本的現實將持續存在，並解釋了為什麼客戶渴望利用混合雲和人工智能來推動他們的業務向前發展。

Our fourth quarter results illustrates the strong client demand we see in the marketplace for our technology and consulting. IBM Consulting again had double-digit revenue growth as our ecosystem play continues to gain momentum. Software revenue growth reflects strength in Red Hat and our automation offerings. Infrastructure had a good quarter, especially with regards to IBM Z and storage.

我們的第四季度業績說明了我們在市場上看到的對我們的技術和諮詢的強勁客戶需求。隨著我們的生態系統發揮繼續獲得動力，IBM 諮詢再次實現了兩位數的收入增長。軟件收入增長反映了紅帽和我們的自動化產品的實力。基礎設施季度表現不錯，尤其是在 IBM Z 和存儲方面。

Over the last 1.5 years, we have taken a series of actions to execute our hybrid cloud and AI strategy and improve our revenue profile, optimizing our portfolio, increasing investments, expanding our ecosystem and simplifying our go-to market. As we start to yield benefits from these actions, our constant currency performance improved through 2021.

在過去的 1.5 年裡，我們採取了一系列行動來執行我們的混合雲和人工智能戰略並改善我們的收入狀況、優化我們的投資組合、增加投資、擴展我們的生態系統並簡化我們的進入市場。隨著我們開始從這些行動中獲益，我們的固定貨幣表現在 2021 年有所改善。

Our most significant portfolio action was the separation of Kyndryl. You will remember we had initially expected the spin by the end of the year, and we completed it in early November. As we discuss our results, we'll focus on the new basis and structure that encompasses today's IBM. As we look to 2022, we expect mid-single-digit revenue growth before Kyndryl and currency and $10 billion to $10.5 billion of free cash flow for the year. Both of these are consistent with our medium-term model.

我們最重要的投資組合行動是分離 Kyndryl。您會記得，我們最初預計在今年年底前進行旋轉，但我們在 11 月初完成了它。在討論我們的結果時，我們將關注包含當今 IBM 的新基礎和結構。展望 2022 年，我們預計在 Kyndryl 和貨幣之前的收入將實現中個位數增長，以及 100 億至 105 億美元的自由現金流。這兩者都與我們的中期模型一致。

Let me now spend a few minutes on what we are seeing in the market, how we address it and the progress we are making. We are seeing high demand for our capabilities in several areas. Clients are eager to automate as many business class as possible, especially given the new employee demographics. This dynamic is likely to play out over the long term. They are also using AI and predictive capabilities to mitigate friction in their supply chains. Cybersecurity remains a major area of concern as the cost of cybercrime, already in the billions of dollars, rises each year. As clients deal with these challenges and opportunities, they are looking for a partner they can trust and who has a proven track record in bringing about strategic transformation projects. This is why our strategy is focused on helping our clients leverage the power of hybrid cloud and AI.

現在讓我花幾分鐘時間談談我們在市場上看到的情況、我們如何解決它以及我們正在取得的進展。我們在幾個領域看到了對我們能力的高需求。客戶渴望盡可能多地自動化商務艙，尤其是考慮到新員工的人口統計數據。從長遠來看，這種動態可能會持續下去。他們還使用人工智能和預測能力來減輕供應鏈中的摩擦。網絡安全仍然是一個值得關注的主要領域，因為網絡犯罪的成本已經達到數十億美元，而且每年都在增加。當客戶應對這些挑戰和機遇時，他們正在尋找一個他們可以信任的合作夥伴，該合作夥伴在實施戰略轉型項目方面有著良好的記錄。這就是為什麼我們的戰略專注於幫助我們的客戶利用混合雲和人工智能的力量。

Hybrid cloud is about providing a platform that can straddle multiple public clouds, private cloud and as-a-service properties that our clients typically have. Our approach is platform-centric, and the platform we have built is open, secure and flexible and it provides a solid base of the multiplier effect across software and services for IBM and our ecosystem partners.

混合雲旨在提供一個平台，該平台可以跨越我們客戶通常擁有的多個公共雲、私有云和即服務屬性。我們的方法是以平台為中心的，我們構建的平台是開放、安全和靈活的，它為 IBM 和我們的生態系統合作夥伴提供了跨軟件和服務的乘數效應的堅實基礎。

It starts with Red Hat, which offers clients unique software capabilities based on open source innovation. Our software, which has been optimized for that platform, helps our clients apply AI, automation and security to transform and improve their business workflows. Our consultants deliver deep business expertise and they cocreate with our clients to advance their digital transformation journeys. And our infrastructure allows clients to take full advantage of an extended hybrid cloud environment.

它始於紅帽，它為客戶提供基於開源創新的獨特軟件功能。我們的軟件已針對該平台進行了優化，可幫助我們的客戶應用人工智能、自動化和安全性來轉變和改進他們的業務工作流程。我們的顧問提供深厚的業務專業知識，他們與我們的客戶共同創造以推進他們的數字化轉型之旅。我們的基礎架構允許客戶充分利用擴展的混合雲環境。

This strategy, along with the differentiated capabilities we bring to bear to our clients, have led to an increase in platform adoption and new business opportunities across the stack. We now have more than 3,800 hybrid cloud platform clients, which is up 1,000 clients from this time last year.

這一戰略，以及我們為客戶帶來的差異化能力，導致了平台採用率的增加和整個堆棧的新商機。我們現在擁有超過 3,800 個混合雲平台客戶端，比去年這個時候增加了 1,000 個。

IBM Consulting continues to help drive platform adoption, with about 700 Red Hat engagements for the year. Clients like Dun & Bradstreet, National Grid, AIB and Volkswagen have all recently chosen IBM's broad hybrid cloud and AI capabilities to transform their processes and move their business forward.

IBM 諮詢繼續幫助推動平台採用，這一年有大約 700 次 Red Hat 參與。 Dun & Bradstreet、National Grid、AIB 和 Volkswagen 等客戶最近都選擇了 IBM 廣泛的混合雲和 AI 功能來轉變他們的流程並推動他們的業務向前發展。

As I look back on the year, we had good success in broadening our ecosystem to drive platform adoption and to better respond to client needs. During our investor briefing, we talked about strategic partnerships that will yield billion-dollar businesses within IBM Consulting. As we move towards that, we had more than 50% revenue growth this year in partnerships with AWS, Azure and Salesforce. This adds to the strong strategic partnerships we have with others such as SAP, Oracle and Adobe.

回顧這一年，我們在擴大生態系統以推動平台採用和更好地響應客戶需求方面取得了巨大成功。在我們的投資者簡報會上，我們談到了將在 IBM 諮詢公司內部產生數十億美元業務的戰略合作夥伴關係。隨著我們朝著這個目標邁進，今年我們與 AWS、Azure 和 Salesforce 合作的收入增長了 50% 以上。這增加了我們與 SAP、Oracle 和 Adobe 等其他公司的強大戰略合作夥伴關係。

We're continuing to broaden our ecosystem reach. In the fourth quarter, we announced an expansion of our strategic partnership with Salesforce to run MuleSoft integration software on Red Hat OpenShift. We also created a host of new consulting services with SAP to help clients accelerate their journey to S/4HANA. Together with Deloitte, we announced DAPPER, an AI-enabled, managed analytics solution. And we have expanded our partnership with EY to help organizations leverage hybrid cloud, AI and automation capabilities to transform HR operations. We have also recently announced a host of new strategic partnerships with Cisco, Palo Alto Networks and TELUS, all focused on the deployment of 5G, edge and network automation capabilities.

我們正在繼續擴大我們的生態系統範圍。在第四季度，我們宣布擴大與 Salesforce 的戰略合作夥伴關係，以便在 Red Hat OpenShift 上運行 MuleSoft 集成軟件。我們還與 SAP 一起創建了許多新的諮詢服務，以幫助客戶加速他們的 S/4HANA 之旅。我們與德勤一起發布了 DAPPER，這是一種支持人工智能的託管分析解決方案。我們擴大了與安永的合作夥伴關係，以幫助組織利用混合雲、人工智能和自動化功能來轉變人力資源運營。我們最近還宣布與 Cisco、Palo Alto Networks 和 TELUS 建立一系列新的戰略合作夥伴關係，所有這些都專注於 5G、邊緣和網絡自動化功能的部署。

During 2021, we have been making changes to increase our focus and agility and build a stronger client-centric culture. This includes putting experiential selling, client engineering and cocreation at the heart of our client engagement model. We have completed thousands of IBM Garage engagements. And today, we have nearly 3,000 active engagements. We've invested in hundreds of customer success managers to help clients capture more value from our solutions. And we have upgraded our skills with fewer generalists and more technical specialists.

在 2021 年，我們一直在做出改變，以提高我們的專注度和敏捷性，並建立更強大的以客戶為中心的文化。這包括將體驗式銷售、客戶工程和共同創造置於我們客戶參與模式的核心。我們已經完成了數以千計的 IBM Garage 項目。今天，我們有近 3,000 次活躍參與。我們已經投資了數百名客戶成功經理，以幫助客戶從我們的解決方案中獲得更多價值。我們已經通過更少的通才和更多的技術專家來提升我們的技能。

This is resonating well with our clients, and it's starting to contribute to our performance. The most important metric, of course, is revenue growth, but we are also pleased to see our client renewal rates increasing and our recurring revenue base growing. We are starting to see signs of sales productivity improvements, with average productivity per technology seller increasing from the first to the second half. At the same time, innovations that matter to our clients remain a constant focus, and our teams have worked hard to deliver a series of important innovations in the past quarter.

這與我們的客戶產生了良好的共鳴，並且開始為我們的業績做出貢獻。當然，最重要的指標是收入增長，但我們也很高興看到我們的客戶續訂率不斷提高，我們的經常性收入基礎也在增長。我們開始看到銷售生產力提高的跡象，每個技術賣家的平均生產力從上半年到下半年都有所提高。與此同時，對我們的客戶而言至關重要的創新仍然是我們始終關注的焦點，我們的團隊在上個季度努力實現了一系列重要的創新。

Starting with AI, we added new natural language processing enhancements to Watson Discovery. We're also combining and integrating products such as Turbonomic, Instana and Watson AIOps to offer a complete set of AI-powered automation software to address the significant demand. This quarter, Red Hat announced that the Ansible automation platform is now available on Microsoft Azure, bringing more flexibility to clients and how they adopt automation.

從 AI 開始，我們向 Watson Discovery 添加了新的自然語言處理增強功能。我們還在整合和整合 Turbonomic、Instana 和 Watson AIOps 等產品，以提供一整套 AI 驅動的自動化軟件來滿足巨大的需求。本季度，紅帽宣布 Ansible 自動化平台現已在 Microsoft Azure 上可用，為客戶以及他們如何採用自動化帶來了更大的靈活性。

In partnership with Samsung Electronics, IBM announced a breakthrough that reorients how transistors are built upon the surface of a chip to enable tremendous increases in energy density. In Quantum, we unveiled Eagle, 127-qubit quantum processor. This is the first quantum chip that breaks the 100-cubic barrier and represents a key milestone on our path towards building a 1,000-cubit processor in 2023.

IBM 與三星電子合作，宣布了一項突破，重新定位了晶體管在芯片表面的構建方式，以實現能量密度的巨大提高。在 Quantum 中，我們推出了 127 量子位量子處理器 Eagle。這是第一個突破 100 立方障礙的量子芯片，代表了我們在 2023 年構建 1000 立方處理器的道路上的一個關鍵里程碑。

While organic innovations are important, we continue to acquire companies that complement and strengthen our portfolio. We made 5 acquisitions in the fourth quarter and a total of 15 acquisitions in 2021. 2 weeks ago, we announced the acquisition of Envizi. Many consumers are willing to pay more for products that are made by companies that are more environmentally sustainable. As the world continues to move towards a more circular economy, our clients' need is the ability to manage and measure their progress. Envizi's capabilities complement our own and help us respond to that client demand.

雖然有機創新很重要，但我們繼續收購能夠補充和加強我們投資組合的公司。我們在第四季度進行了 5 次收購，2021 年總共進行了 15 次收購。兩週前，我們宣布收購 Envizi。許多消費者願意為環境更可持續的公司生產的產品支付更多費用。隨著世界繼續朝著更加循環的經濟發展，我們客戶的需求是管理和衡量他們進步的能力。 Envizi 的能力補充了我們自己的能力，並幫助我們響應客戶的需求。

Sustainability is important across a number of stakeholder groups, including clients, employees and investors. We are continuing to make good progress and are particularly proud of our diversity and inclusion scores, and our ability to attract and retain talent. Our efforts were recently recognized by JUST Capital who named IBM as one of America's most just companies.

可持續性對包括客戶、員工和投資者在內的許多利益相關者群體都很重要。我們繼續取得良好進展，並為我們的多元化和包容性得分以及我們吸引和留住人才的能力感到特別自豪。我們的努力最近得到了 JUST Capital 的認可，後者將 IBM 評為美國最公正的公司之一。

Let me now close by emphasizing once again our fourth quarter results strengthen the conviction that we have in our ability to deliver our model of mid-single-digit revenue growth.

現在讓我再次強調我們第四季度的業績來結束我們的信念，即我們有能力實現我們的中個位數收入增長模式。

Jim will take you through the fourth quarter and then provide more color on 2022. Jim, over to you.

吉姆將帶你度過第四季度，然後在 2022 年提供更多色彩。吉姆，交給你了。

Thanks, Arvind. Let me start out with a few of the headline numbers. We delivered $16.7 billion in revenue, 58% operating gross margin, operating pretax income of $3.5 billion and operating EPS of $3.35 for continuing operations.

謝謝，阿文德。讓我從一些標題數字開始。我們實現了 167 億美元的收入、58% 的營業毛利率、35 億美元的營業稅前收入和 3.35 美元的持續經營每股收益。

Last January, we said we expected performance to improve over the course of 2021 as we start to benefit from the actions we've taken. We have seen progress in our constant currency revenue growth rate every quarter and now again in the fourth. This is the first view of IBM post separation.

去年 1 月，我們曾表示，隨著我們開始從我們所採取的行動中受益，我們預計業績將在 2021 年有所改善。我們看到每個季度的固定貨幣收入增長率都取得了進展，現在又在第四季度取得了進展。這是IBM崗位分離的第一個觀點。

We had solid revenue performance, up nearly 9%. I'll remind you, this includes the incremental revenue from the new commercial relationship with Kyndryl, and we said we would be transparent on the contribution to our revenue growth for the first year. This quarter, our revenue growth includes about 3.5 points from the new relationship. Excluding this, IBM's revenue was up 5%.

我們的收入表現穩健，增長了近 9%。我會提醒你，這包括與 Kyndryl 的新商業關係帶來的增量收入，我們說過我們將對第一年收入增長的貢獻保持透明。本季度，我們的收入增長包括來自新關係的約 3.5 個百分點。不計此，IBM 的收入增長了 5%。

We have aligned our operating model and segment structure to our platform-centric approach. In the fourth quarter, Software was up 10%, and Consulting was up 16%. These are our 2 growth vectors and together represent over 70% of our annual revenue. Infrastructure, more of a value vector, tends to follow product cycles and was up 2%. The Software and Infrastructure growth each include nearly 5 points from the new Kyndryl relationship while there is no contribution to Consulting's growth.

我們已將我們的運營模式和部門結構與我們以平台為中心的方法保持一致。第四季度，軟件增長了 10%，諮詢增長了 16%。這些是我們的 2 個增長載體，合計占我們年收入的 70% 以上。基礎設施，更多的價值載體，往往跟隨產品週期，上漲了 2%。軟件和基礎設施的增長各包括近 5 分來自新的 Kyndryl 關係，而對諮詢的增長沒有任何貢獻。

Our platform-centric model has attractive economics. For every dollar of hybrid platform revenue, IBM and our ecosystem partners can generate $3 to $5 of software, $6 to $8 of services and $1 to $2 of infrastructure revenue. This drives IBM's hybrid cloud revenue, which is up 19% for the year. Post separation, revenue from our full stack cloud capabilities from Infrastructure up through Consulting now represents $20 billion of revenue or 35% of our total.

我們以平台為中心的模型具有有吸引力的經濟性。對於混合平台的每一美元收入，IBM 和我們的生態系統合作夥伴可以產生 3 到 5 美元的軟件、6 到 8 美元的服務和 1 到 2 美元的基礎設施收入。這推動了 IBM 的混合雲收入，今年增長了 19%。分離後，我們從基礎設施到諮詢的全棧雲功能的收入現在佔 200 億美元，占我們總收入的 35%。

Looking at our P&L metrics. Our operating gross profit was up 3%, and the $3.5 billion of operating pretax profit was up over 100%. Operating net income and earnings per share also grew.

查看我們的損益指標。我們的營業毛利增長了 3%，35 億美元的營業稅前利潤增長了 100% 以上。營業淨收入和每股收益也有所增長。

Let me highlight a couple of items within our profit performance. First, the year-to-year pretax profit reflects $1.5 billion charge to SG&A last year for structural actions to simplify and optimize our operating model and improve our go-forward position. We're continuing to invest to drive growth. Throughout the year, we have been aggressively hiring, with about 60% of our hires in Consulting. We're scaling resources in Garages, sign engineering centers and customer success managers, all to better serve our clients. We're increasing investments in R&D to deliver innovation in AI, hybrid cloud and emerging areas like Quantum. We're ramping investment in our ecosystem, and we acquired 15 companies in 2021 to provide skills and technologies aligned to our strategy, including capabilities to help win client architecture decisions.

讓我強調一下我們的利潤表現中的幾個項目。首先，同比稅前利潤反映了去年向 SG&A 收取的 15 億美元費用，用於簡化和優化我們的運營模式並改善我們的前進地位的結構性行動。我們將繼續投資以推動增長。全年，我們一直在積極招聘，其中約 60% 的員工來自諮詢。我們正在擴展車庫、簽約工程中心和客戶成功經理的資源，所有這些都是為了更好地為我們的客戶服務。我們正在增加對研發的投資，以在人工智能、混合雲和量子等新興領域提供創新。我們正在加大對生態系統的投資，並在 2021 年收購了 15 家公司，以提供符合我們戰略的技能和技術，包括幫助贏得客戶架構決策的能力。

Regarding tax, our fourth quarter operating tax rate was 14%. This was up significantly from last year but roughly 2 to 3 points lower than what we estimated in October due to a number of factors, including the actual product and geographic mix of our income in the quarter.

在稅收方面，我們第四季度的營業稅率為 14%。這比去年顯著上升，但由於多種因素，包括我們本季度收入的實際產品和地理組合，比我們在 10 月份的估計低了大約 2 到 3 個百分點。

Let me spend a minute on our free cash flow and balance sheet position. Our full year consolidated cash from operations was $12.8 billion, and free cash flow was $6.5 billion. These are all-in consolidated results and include 10 months of Kyndryl and the cash paid for the 2020 structural actions and spin charges. IBM's stand-alone or baseline free cash flow for the year was $7.9 billion, which is aligned to our go-forward business. This excludes Kyndryl charges and pre-separation activity but includes the IBM portion of the structural actions. Payments for these IBM-related structural actions and deferred cash tax paid in 2021 contributed to the year-to-year decline in the stand-alone results.

讓我花一分鐘時間了解一下我們的自由現金流和資產負債表狀況。我們全年合併運營現金為 128 億美元，自由現金流為 65 億美元。這些是全部綜合結果，包括 10 個月的 Kyndryl 以及為 2020 年結構性行動和旋轉費用支付的現金。 IBM 當年的獨立或基準自由現金流為 79 億美元，這與我們的未來業務保持一致。這不包括 Kyndryl 收費和分離前活動，但包括結構性行動的 IBM 部分。這些與 IBM 相關的結構性行動的付款和 2021 年支付的遞延現金稅導致獨立業績同比下降。

In terms of uses of cash for the year, we invested over $3 billion in acquisitions. We continue to delever, with debt down nearly $10 billion for the year and over $21 billion since closing the Red Hat acquisition. And we returned nearly $6 billion to shareholders in the form of dividends. This results in a year-end cash position of $7.6 billion, including marketable securities and debt of just under $52 billion.

就本年度的現金使用而言，我們在收購方面的投資超過 30 億美元。我們繼續去槓桿化，今年的債務減少了近 100 億美元，自完成對紅帽的收購以來，債務減少了超過 210 億美元。我們以股息的形式向股東返還了近 60 億美元。這導致年終現金頭寸為 76 億美元，其中包括有價證券和略低於 520 億美元的債務。

Our balance sheet remains strong, and I'd say the same for our retirement-related plans. You'll remember that over the last years, we've shifted our asset base to a lower risk profile. In 2021, the combination of modest returns and higher discount rates improved the funded status of our plans. In aggregate, our worldwide tax qualified plans are funded at 107%, with the U.S. at 112%.

我們的資產負債表仍然強勁，我對我們的退休相關計劃也是如此。您會記得，在過去幾年中，我們已將資產基礎轉移到較低的風險水平。 2021 年，適度的回報和較高的貼現率相結合，改善了我們計劃的資金狀況。總的來說，我們的全球稅務合格計劃的資助率為 107%，美國為 112%。

Now I'll turn to the details by segment, and I'll remind you we have put in place a simplified management system and segment structure aligned to our platform-centric model. And within the segments, we're now providing new revenue categories and metrics that will provide greater transparency into business trends and drivers.

現在我將按細分進行詳細介紹，並提醒您我們已經建立了與我們以平台為中心的模型相一致的簡化管理系統和細分結構。在這些細分市場中，我們現在提供新的收入類別和指標，這將為業務趨勢和驅動因素提供更大的透明度。

IBM Software delivered double-digit revenue growth in the quarter. This was driven by good revenue performance in both hybrid platform and solutions and transaction processing, the latter benefiting significantly from the new Kyndryl content. Software is important to our hybrid cloud strategy and our financial model. Our hybrid cloud revenue in software is up 25% for the year to more than $8.5 billion. And subscription and support renewal rates continue to grow again this quarter, contributing to a $700 million increase in the software deferred income balance over the last year. Hybrid platform and solutions revenue was up 9%. This performance is an indication of the strength across the software growth areas focused on hybrid cloud and AI. It's worth mentioning this includes only a point of help from the new Kyndryl commercial relationship.

IBM Software 在本季度實現了兩位數的收入增長。這是由混合平台和解決方案以及交易處理方面的良好收入表現推動的，後者從新的 Kyndryl 內容中受益匪淺。軟件對我們的混合雲戰略和財務模型很重要。我們在軟件方面的混合雲收入今年增長了 25%，超過 85 億美元。本季度訂閱和支持續訂率繼續增長，軟件遞延收入餘額比去年增加了 7 億美元。混合平台和解決方案收入增長 9%。這一表現表明了以混合雲和人工智能為重點的軟件增長領域的實力。值得一提的是，這僅包括來自新的 Kyndryl 商業關係的一點幫助。

Let me highlight some of the trends by business area. Red Hat revenue, all in, was up 21%. Both infrastructure and app dev and emerging tech grew double digits as RHEL and OpenShift address enterprise's critical hybrid cloud requirements. With this performance, we're continuing to take share with our Red Hat offerings.

讓我按業務領域重點介紹一些趨勢。紅帽的總收入增長了 21%。隨著 RHEL 和 OpenShift 滿足企業的關鍵混合雲需求，基礎設施和應用程序開發以及新興技術都實現了兩位數的增長。憑藉這一性能，我們將繼續分享我們的紅帽產品。

Automation delivered strong revenue growth, up 15%. As Arvind mentioned, there is strong market demand for automation. We had good performance in AIOps and management this quarter as we address resource management and observability. Clients are realizing rapid time to value from Instana and Turbonomic, 2 of our automation acquisitions. And integration grew with continued traction in Cloud Pak for Integration.

自動化帶來了強勁的收入增長，增長了 15%。正如 Arvind 所說，市場對自動化的需求很大。本季度我們在 AIOps 和管理方面表現良好，因為我們解決了資源管理和可觀察性問題。客戶正在從我們的兩項自動化收購中快速實現 Instana 和 Turbonomic 的價值。隨著 Cloud Pak for Integration 的持續發展，集成也在增長。

Data and AI revenue grew 3%. We have particular strength in data fabric, which enables clients to connect siloed data distributed across the hybrid cloud landscape without moving it. You'll recall, we talked about the data fabric opportunity back in October. We also had strong performance in business analytics and weather. Within these solutions, clients are leveraging our AI to ensure AI models are governed to operate in a fair and transparent manner.

數據和人工智能收入增長了 3%。我們在數據結構方面具有特殊優勢，它使客戶能夠連接分佈在混合雲環境中的孤立數據，而無需移動它。您會記得，我們在 10 月份討論過數據結構的機會。我們在業務分析和天氣方面也表現出色。在這些解決方案中，客戶正在利用我們的 AI 來確保 AI 模型能夠以公平透明的方式運行。

Security revenue declined modestly in the quarter driven by lower performance in data security, while revenue grew 5% for the year. As we called out in our recent investor briefing, security innovation is an integral part of our strategy. In December, we launched a new data security solution, Guardium Insights, with further plans to modernize the broader portfolio throughout the year. This quarter, we also completed the acquisition of ReaQta, which leverages AI and machine learning to automatically identify and block threats at the end point. Putting this all together, our annual recurring revenue, or ARR, is now over $13 billion, which is up 8% this quarter. This demonstrates the momentum in our hybrid platform and AI strategy, including Red Hat and our suite of Cloud Paks.

由於數據安全性能下降，本季度安全收入小幅下降，而全年收入增長 5%。正如我們在最近的投資者簡報中所說，安全創新是我們戰略的一個組成部分。 12 月，我們推出了新的數據安全解決方案 Guardium Insights，並進一步計劃在全年對更廣泛的產品組合進行現代化改造。本季度，我們還完成了對 ReaQta 的收購，該公司利用 AI 和機器學習在端點自動識別和阻止威脅。綜上所述，我們的年度經常性收入（ARR）現在超過 130 億美元，本季度增長 8%。這展示了我們混合平台和人工智能戰略的發展勢頭，包括紅帽和我們的 Cloud Paks 套件。

Moving to transaction processing. Revenue was up 14%. This is above our model driven by a few underlying dynamics. First, all of the growth in transaction processing came from the new Kyndryl commercial relationship, which contributed more than 16 points of growth. Second, I'll remind you that we're wrapping on a very weak performance in the fourth quarter of last year, which was down 26%. And lastly, we had some large perpetual license transactions given the good expansion in the IBM Z capacity we've seen this cycle. While the new capacity is important, what's just as important is the continued strong renewal rates this quarter. These are both good proof points of our clients' commitment to our infrastructure platform and these high-value software offerings.

轉向事務處理。收入增長了 14%。這高於我們的模型，由一些潛在的動力驅動。首先，交易處理的增長全部來自新的Kyndryl商業關係，貢獻了超過16個點的增長。其次，我要提醒您，我們在去年第四季度的表現非常疲弱，下降了 26%。最後，鑑於我們在這個週期中看到的 IBM Z 容量的良好擴展，我們進行了一些大型的永久許可交易。雖然新產能很重要，但同樣重要的是本季度持續強勁的續訂率。這些都是我們客戶對我們的基礎設施平台和這些高價值軟件產品的承諾的良好證明。

Looking at software profit. We expanded pretax margin by 12 points, including nearly 10 points of improvement from last year's structural actions.

看軟件利潤。我們將稅前利潤率提高了 12 個百分點，其中比去年的結構性措施提高了近 10 個百分點。

Turning to Consulting. Revenue grew 16% with acceleration across all 3 revenue categories. Complementing this strong revenue performance, our book-to-bill was 1.2. Clients are accelerating their business transformations powered by hybrid cloud and AI to drive innovation, increase agility and productivity and capture new growth opportunities. Enterprises are turning to IBM Consulting as their trusted partner on this journey. They are choosing us for our deep client, industry and technical expertise, which drives adoption of our hybrid cloud platform and pulls through key technologies.

轉向諮詢。收入增長 16%，所有 3 個收入類別均加速增長。作為對這一強勁收入表現的補充，我們的訂單出貨比為 1.2。客戶正在加速由混合雲和人工智能驅動的業務轉型，以推動創新、提高敏捷性和生產力並抓住新的增長機會。企業正在將 IBM 諮詢作為他們在這一旅程中值得信賴的合作夥伴。他們之所以選擇我們，是因為我們深厚的客戶、行業和技術專長，這推動了我們混合雲平台的採用並推動了關鍵技術的發展。

Consulting's hybrid cloud revenue grew 34% in the quarter. For the year, cloud revenue is up 32% to $8 billion. Offerings and application modernization, which are centered on Red Hat, contributed to this growth. The Red Hat-related signings more than doubled this year and are now over $4 billion since inception. This quarter, we added over 150 client engagements, bringing the total since inception to over 1,000.

諮詢公司的混合雲收入在本季度增長了 34%。今年，雲計算收入增長了 32%，達到 80 億美元。以紅帽為中心的產品和應用程序現代化推動了這一增長。今年與紅帽相關的簽約數量增加了一倍多，自成立以來已超過 40 億美元。本季度，我們增加了 150 多個客戶參與，使自成立以來的總數超過 1,000 個。

Our strategic partnerships also drove our performance. Revenue from these partnerships accelerated as the year progressed and was up solid double digits in the fourth quarter led by Salesforce, SAP, AWS and Azure.

我們的戰略合作夥伴關係也推動了我們的業績。這些合作夥伴的收入隨著時間的推移而加速增長，在 Salesforce、SAP、AWS 和 Azure 的帶領下，第四季度實現了兩位數的穩定增長。

Turning to our business areas. Our Consulting's growth was led by business transformation, which was up 20%. Business transformation brings together technology and strategic consulting to transform critical workflows at scale. To enable this, we leverage skills and capabilities in IBM technologies and with strategic ecosystem partners such as SAP, Salesforce and Adobe. Our practices are centered on areas such as finance and supply chain, talent, industry-specific solutions and digital design. This quarter, we had broad-based growth, reflecting strong demand for these solutions.

轉向我們的業務領域。我們諮詢業務的增長是由業務轉型帶動的，增長了 20%。業務轉型將技術和戰略諮詢結合在一起，以大規模轉變關鍵工作流程。為此，我們利用 IBM 技術和戰略生態系統合作夥伴（如 SAP、Salesforce 和 Adobe）的技能和能力。我們的實踐集中在金融和供應鏈、人才、行業特定解決方案和數字設計等領域。本季度，我們實現了廣泛的增長，反映出對這些解決方案的強勁需求。

In technology consulting, revenue was up 19%. Technology consulting architects and implements cloud platforms and strategies. We leverage hybrid cloud with Red Hat OpenShift and work with providers, such as AWS and Azure, in addition to IBM Cloud. This quarter, we continue to see good performance in application modernization offerings that build cloud native applications and that modernize existing applications for the cloud.

在技術諮詢方面，收入增長了 19%。技術諮詢架構師和實施雲平台和戰略。我們將混合雲與 Red Hat OpenShift 結合使用，並與 AWS 和 Azure 等提供商合作，以及 IBM Cloud。本季度，我們繼續看到構建雲原生應用程序和對現有云應用程序進行現代化改造的應用程序現代化產品表現良好。

Finally, application operations revenue grew 8%. This business line focuses on application and cloud platform services required to operationalize and run in both cloud and on-premise environments. Revenue growth was driven by offerings, which provide end-to-end management of custom applications in cloud environments.

最後，應用程序運營收入增長了 8%。該業務線專注於在雲和本地環境中操作和運行所需的應用程序和雲平台服務。收入增長由產品驅動，這些產品提供雲環境中自定義應用程序的端到端管理。

Moving to consulting profit. Our pretax income margin expanded about 8 points, including just over 9 points from last year's structural actions. We're in a competitive labor market, and we continue to have increased pressure on labor costs due to higher acquisition, retention and wages. While we still expect to capture this value in our engagements, it will take a few quarters to appear in our profit profile.

轉向諮詢利潤。我們的稅前利潤率擴大了約 8 個百分點，其中比去年的結構性行動增加了 9 個多點。我們處於競爭激烈的勞動力市場，由於更高的收購、保留和工資，我們繼續承受著越來越大的勞動力成本壓力。雖然我們仍然希望在我們的業務中捕捉到這一價值，但它需要幾個季度才能出現在我們的利潤概況中。

So now turning to the new Infrastructure segment. Revenue was up 2%. The Kyndryl commercial relationship contributed about 5 points of growth, which is higher than we expected in October. In this segment, we brought together hybrid infrastructure with infrastructure support, which was formerly technology support services. This allows us to better manage the life cycle of our hardware platforms and to provide end-to-end value for our clients.

所以現在轉向新的基礎設施部分。收入增長了 2%。 Kyndryl 商業關係貢獻了約 5 個百分點的增長，高於我們 10 月份的預期。在這一部分，我們將混合基礎設施與基礎設施支持結合在一起，以前是技術支持服務。這使我們能夠更好地管理硬件平台的生命週期，並為我們的客戶提供端到端的價值。

Hybrid infrastructure and infrastructure support revenue were up 2% and 1%, respectively, with pretty consistent contribution from the new Kyndryl relationship. Hybrid infrastructure includes IBM Z and distributed infrastructure. IBM Z revenue performance, now inclusive of both hardware and operating system, is down 4% this quarter. This is the 10th quarter of z15 availability and the combination of security, scalability and reliability continues to resonate with clients. This program continues to outpace the strong z14 program, and we ship more MIPS in the z15 program than any program in our history. Our clients are leveraging IBM Z as an essential part of their hybrid cloud infrastructure. And then in distributed infrastructure, revenue was up 7% driven by pervasive strength across our storage portfolio.

混合基礎設施和基礎設施支持收入分別增長 2% 和 1%，新的 Kyndryl 關係的貢獻相當一致。混合基礎架構包括 IBM Z 和分佈式基礎架構。 IBM Z 的收入表現，現在包括硬件和操作系統，本季度下降了 4%。這是 z15 可用性的第 10 個季度，安全性、可擴展性和可靠性的結合繼續引起客戶的共鳴。這個程序繼續超過強大的 z14 程序，我們在 z15 程序中交付的 MIPS 比我們歷史上的任何程序都多。我們的客戶正在利用 IBM Z 作為其混合雲基礎架構的重要組成部分。然後在分佈式基礎架構中，由於我們存儲產品組合的普遍實力，收入增長了 7%。

Looking at infrastructure profit. The pretax margin was up over 9 points but essentially flat, normalizing for last year's structural action.

著眼於基礎設施利潤。稅前利潤率上升了 9 個百分點以上，但基本持平，與去年的結構性行動正常化。

Now I'll wrap up with a discussion of how our investments and actions position us for 2022 and the longer term. We've been laser-focused on our hybrid cloud and AI strategy. Our portfolio, our capital allocation and the moves we've been making are all designed to create value through focus for our clients, our partners, our employees and our shareholders.

現在，我將討論我們的投資和行動如何為 2022 年和更長期的未來定位。我們一直專注於我們的混合雲和人工智能戰略。我們的投資組合、我們的資本配置和我們一直在採取的舉措都是為了通過專注於我們的客戶、我們的合作夥伴、我們的員工和我們的股東來創造價值。

We took significant steps during 2021. The most impactful portfolio action was, of course, the separation of Kyndryl. We've also been allocating capital to higher growth areas, investing in skills and innovation and expanding our ecosystem. We've aligned our business to a more platform-centric business model. And we're simplifying and redesigning our go-to-market to better meet client needs and execute on our growth agenda.

我們在 2021 年採取了重大步驟。當然，最有影響力的投資組合行動是分離 Kyndryl。我們還一直將資金分配到更高增長的領域，投資於技能和創新，並擴大我們的生態系統。我們已將我們的業務與更加以平台為中心的業務模式保持一致。我們正在簡化和重新設計我們的上市，以更好地滿足客戶需求並執行我們的增長議程。

Bottom line, we're exiting 2021 a different company. We have a higher growth, higher value business mix, with over 70% of our revenue in software and services and a significant recurring revenue base dominated by software. This will result in improving revenue growth profile, higher operating margin, strong and growing free cash flow and lower capital intensity, leading to a higher return on invested capital business.

最重要的是，我們將在 2021 年退出一家不同的公司。我們擁有更高增長、更高價值的業務組合，超過 70% 的收入來自軟件和服務，以及以軟件為主的重要經常性收入基礎。這將導致收入增長狀況改善、營業利潤率提高、自由現金流強勁且不斷增長以及資本密集度降低，從而帶來更高的投資資本業務回報。

We also continue to have attractive shareholder returns through dividends. In October, we laid out a model for IBM's performance over the medium term defined as 2022 through 2024. The model is focused on our 2 most important measures of success: revenue growth and free cash flow. As we enter the new year, I'll talk about our expectations for 2022 performance along those dimensions.

我們還繼續通過股息獲得有吸引力的股東回報。 10 月，我們為 IBM 定義為 2022 年至 2024 年的中期業績制定了一個模型。該模型專注於我們衡量成功的兩個最重要的指標：收入增長和自由現金流。隨著我們進入新的一年，我將在這些方面談談我們對 2022 年表現的預期。

Starting with revenue. We expect to grow revenue at mid-single-digit rate at constant currency. That's consistent with the model. On top of that, in 2022, the new commercial relationship with Kyndryl will contribute an additional 3 points of growth spread across the first 3 quarters.

從收入開始。我們預計收入將以固定匯率的中個位數增長。這與模型一致。最重要的是，到 2022 年，與 Kyndryl 的新商業關係將在前三個季度貢獻額外的 3 個增長點。

Currency dynamics, unfortunately, will be a headwind. At current spot rates, currency is roughly a 2-point headwind to reported revenue growth for the year and 3 points in the first quarter.

不幸的是，貨幣動態將成為逆風。以目前的即期匯率計算，貨幣對報告的年度收入增長和第一季度的收入增長大約有 2 個百分點的阻力。

For free cash flow, we expect to generate $10 billion to $10.5 billion in 2022. To be clear, this is an all-in free cash flow definition. The adjusted free cash flow view we provided in 2021 was useful given the significant cash impact associated with the separation and structural actions. Now in 2022, despite the fact we still have nearly $0.5 billion of impact from the charges, we're focusing on a traditional free cash flow definition. The $10 billion to $10.5 billion reflects a year-to-year improvement driven by lower payments for the structural actions, a modest tailwind from cash taxes, working capital improvements and profit growth resulting from our higher growth and higher value business mix. With this performance, we're on track to our model.

對於自由現金流，我們預計 2022 年將產生 100 億至 105 億美元。需要明確的是，這是一個全面的自由現金流定義。鑑於與分離和結構性行動相關的重大現金影響，我們在 2021 年提供的調整後自由現金流視圖很有用。現在到了 2022 年，儘管我們仍然會受到近 5 億美元的收費影響，但我們仍專注於傳統的自由現金流定義。 100 億美元至 105 億美元反映了由於結構性行動的支付減少、現金稅帶來的適度順風、營運資本改善以及我們更高增長和更高價值業務組合帶來的利潤增長所推動的同比改善。憑藉這種表現，我們走上了我們的模型。

So now let me provide some color on our expectations for segment performance. Because this is a new segment structure, I'm going to spend a little more time and provide perspective on constant currency revenue growth and pretax margin in the context of our segment models.

所以現在讓我為我們對細分市場表現的期望提供一些顏色。因為這是一個新的細分結構，我將花更多的時間，並在我們的細分模型的背景下提供關於恆定貨幣收入增長和稅前利潤率的觀點。

In Software, as we benefit from the investments in innovation and our go-to-market changes, we're seeing progress in our Software growth rate. In 2022, we expect growth at the low end of the mid-single-digit model and then another 5 to 6 points of revenue growth from our external sales to Kyndryl. We expect Software pretax margin in the mid-20s range for the year.

在軟件方面，隨著我們從創新投資和進入市場的變化中受益，我們看到了軟件增長率的進步。到 2022 年，我們預計在中個位數模型的低端增長，然後我們對 Kyndryl 的外部銷售收入再增長 5 到 6 個百分點。我們預計今年軟件稅前利潤率在 20 年代中期。

We have solid momentum in IBM Consulting revenue and expect this to continue into 2022 as we help clients with their digital transformations. This momentum and our book-to-bill ratio support revenue at the high end of our high single-digit model for the year, with double-digit growth in the first half. We expect low double-digit pretax margin for the full year with improving performance through the year as we make progress on price realization.

我們在 IBM 諮詢收入方面擁有強勁勢頭，並預計隨著我們幫助客戶進行數字化轉型，這種勢頭將持續到 2022 年。這種勢頭和我們的訂單出貨比支持了我們今年高個位數模型的高端收入，上半年實現了兩位數的增長。隨著我們在價格實現方面取得進展，我們預計全年稅前利潤率將保持在兩位數的低水平，全年業績將有所改善。

Infrastructure revenue performance will vary with product cycle. In 2022, with a new IBM Z introduction late in the first half, we expect performance above the model and a slight contribution to IBM's overall growth. On top of that, we're planning for about 2 to 3 points from the external sales to Kyndryl in 2022. This supports a high-teens pretax margin rate for the full year. These segment revenue and margin dynamics will yield about a 4-point year-to-year improvement in IBM's pretax operating margin for the full year and 2 to 3 points in the first quarter. In terms of tax, we expect a mid- to high teens tax rate, which is a headwind to our profit growth.

基礎設施收入表現將隨產品週期而變化。到 2022 年，隨著上半年晚些時候推出新的 IBM Z，我們預計性能將高於該模型，並對 IBM 的整體增長做出輕微貢獻。最重要的是，我們計劃在 2022 年從外部銷售到 Kyndryl 大約 2 到 3 個百分點。這支持了全年高青少年的稅前利潤率。這些部門的收入和利潤率動態將使 IBM 全年稅前營業利潤率同比提高約 4 個百分點，第一季度將提高 2 至 3 個百分點。在稅收方面，我們預計青少年稅率將處於中高水平，這對我們的利潤增長是不利的。

Bringing this all together, we expect mid-single-digit revenue growth before Kyndryl and currency and $10 billion to $10.5 billion of free cash flow for the year, both in line with our midterm model.

綜上所述，我們預計在 Kyndryl 和貨幣之前的中個位數收入增長和 100 億至 105 億美元的自由現金流，均符合我們的中期模型。

Patricia, let's go to the Q&A.

帕特里夏，我們去問答吧。

Thank you, Jim. Before we begin the Q&A, I'd like to mention a couple of items. First, supplemental information is provided at the end of the presentation. In addition to our regular materials, we've included a summary of our new segments for your reference and historical data on segment pretax income. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝你，吉姆。在我們開始問答之前，我想提幾個項目。首先，在演示結束時提供補充信息。除了我們的常規材料外，我們還提供了新細分市場的摘要供您參考，以及細分市場稅前收入的歷史數據。 （操作員說明）

Sheila, let's please open it up for questions.

希拉，讓我們打開它來提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Amit Daryanani with Evercore.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Amit Daryanani。

Jim, I want to go back to this $10 billion to $10.5 billion free cash flow number for calendar '22. I know there's a lot of moving parts here. So it's more than what I think many had been modeling. And if I think about the Analyst Day framework we have talked about, it was supposed to be a $10 billion free cash flow in '20, adding $750 million, if I remember correctly, annually. So I would put this somewhere in $11.5 billion range, I think, is what I would have expected. So can you just talk about either relative to that, if you want. What is the delta to free cash flow? What are the puts and takes there? That would be really helpful.

吉姆，我想回到 22 年這個 100 億到 105 億美元的自由現金流數字。我知道這裡有很多活動部件。所以它比我認為許多人一直在建模的要多。如果我考慮一下我們討論過的分析師日框架，它應該是 20 年 100 億美元的自由現金流，如果我沒記錯的話，每年增加 7.5 億美元。因此，我認為這在 115 億美元的範圍內是我所期望的。如果你願意的話，你能不能只談談相對於那個。自由現金流的增量是多少？那裡的看跌期權是什麼？那真的很有幫助。

Sure. Amit, thank you very much for the question. First, let's just ground everyone because I want to make sure we have absolute clarity as we're returning to reporting all-in free cash flow to, one, align to our consistency of IBM's post-separation baseline, to your point, the $10 billion in 2020 and, more importantly, to align to our forward-looking guidance, which we talked at Investor Day, with a midterm model of $35 billion cumulatively over 2022 to 2024. For 2022 specifically, as you heard me say, we expect free cash flow to be between $10 billion and $10.5 billion all-in. And that puts us right on track for the $35 billion, mainly, Amit, because it includes still the remaining structural actions charges of about $0.5 billion in 2022. And when you look at that, because of structural actions, you're not going to have linearity in that $35 billion throughout 2022 to 2023 to 2024.

當然。阿米特，非常感謝你的問題。首先，讓我們讓每個人都接地氣，因為我想確保我們在返回報告全部自由現金流時有絕對的清晰性2020 年 10 億美元，更重要的是，為了與我們在投資者日討論的前瞻性指引保持一致，中期模型在 2022 年至 2024 年期間累計達到 350 億美元。具體而言，正如你聽到我所說的，對於 2022 年，我們預計免費現金流將在 100 億美元至 105 億美元之間。這讓我們走上了 350 億美元的正軌，主要是阿米特，因為它仍然包括 2022 年剩餘的約 5 億美元的結構性行動費用。當你看到這一點時，由於結構性行動，你不會從 2022 年到 2023 年到 2024 年，這 350 億美元是線性的。

So let me talk just a little bit so we get clarity around the drivers, to your point, at the heart of your question. First, we do have about $0.5 billion remaining in the cash impacts from the structural charges, as I stated earlier. That means year-to-year, it's about $1 billion, give or take, benefit. Second, we anticipate about $0.5 billion of working capital efficiency just based on our AR dynamics around volume. And also, we're entering a mainframe cycle late in the first half. Third, very minimal tailwind with regards to cash tax, which basically means the majority of this has to be delivered on our operational profit and invest less, I should say, investments in capital expenditures. And that's going to come from revenue growth at our model, mid-single digit, before we add on Kyndryl; operating leverage, which we talked about, about 4 points improvement for the year; a mainframe cycle; and us continuing to address the remaining stranded costs from the separation of Kyndryl as we move forward.

因此，讓我稍微談談，以便我們清楚地了解驅動程序，就您的觀點而言，這是您問題的核心。首先，正如我之前所說，我們確實有大約 5 億美元的現金影響來自結構性收費。這意味著每年大約有 10 億美元的收益，無論是給予還是接受。其次，僅根據我們圍繞數量的 AR 動態，我們預計運營資本效率約為 5 億美元。而且，我們將在上半年後期進入大型機週期。第三，現金稅方面的順風非常小，這基本上意味著其中大部分必須通過我們的運營利潤來實現，並且投資更少，我應該說，資本支出投資。在我們添加 Kyndryl 之前，這將來自我們模型的收入增長，中個位數；我們談到的經營槓桿，全年提高了大約 4 個百分點；大型機週期；在我們前進的過程中，我們將繼續解決因分離 Kyndryl 而產生的剩餘擱淺成本。

So we feel very comfortable, one, $10 billion to $10.5 billion puts us in position to that $35 billion; and two, more importantly, that this cash provides us with ample financial flexibility to continue to invest in our business, both organically and inorganically, and return significant value to our shareholders with our committed dividend.

所以我們感覺很舒服，一，100 億到 105 億美元讓我們處於 350 億美元的位置；第二，更重要的是，這筆現金為我們提供了充足的財務靈活性，可以繼續以有機和無機方式投資於我們的業務，並通過我們承諾的股息為我們的股東回報可觀的價值。

Our next question comes from Katy Huberty with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Katy Huberty。

Arvind, I couldn't agree more with your comments about the structural uplift in IT spending from technology diffusion across all sectors. But as you think about the stock market volatility over the last several weeks, is there any reason to believe that there could be some near-term cyclical impact from that volatility? And then maybe if you can also comment on whether the recent pullback in software valuations increases the likelihood that you might look at doing bigger M&A this year.

Arvind，我完全同意您對所有行業的技術擴散導致 IT 支出結構性提升的評論。但是，當您考慮過去幾週的股市波動時，是否有理由相信這種波動可能會產生一些近期的周期性影響？然後也許你也可以評論一下最近軟件估值的回落是否增加了你今年可能考慮進行更大併購的可能性。

Thanks, Katy, for the question, and thank you for also noticing and acknowledging the robust IT spending environment. Look, Katy, I mean like if I react to every stock market intraday volatility, that's a full-time occupation. I think today showed that actually these cycles are hard to predict. And if I back up and look at our clients, I think they are not really reacting to these volatilities. We saw this in the middle of 2020 also, not just in 2021 and 2022. For the first time, despite a down business cycle in 2020, we saw people actually decide to keep up their IT spending.

感謝 Katy 提出的問題，也感謝您注意到並承認穩健的 IT 支出環境。聽著，凱蒂，我的意思是，如果我對每一次股票市場的盤中波動做出反應，那就是全職工作。我認為今天表明，實際上這些週期很難預測。如果我備份並查看我們的客戶，我認為他們並沒有真正對這些波動做出反應。我們在 2020 年年中也看到了這一點，而不僅僅是在 2021 年和 2022 年。儘管 2020 年的商業周期處於下行階段，但我們第一次看到人們實際上決定保持他們的 IT 支出。

Now I'll acknowledge in 2020, they did put a break on capital spending within IT, but they all acknowledge that IT spending was critical to how they would come out. And that showed up in 2021 spending, okay? So I suspect -- look, we are not as much expert on this as many of you on this call, but I would suspect that this volatility we are seeing recently will not have much of an impact. Now if it becomes into an overall bear market, correction, that would be different, but I don't think we're anywhere close to that.

現在我要承認，在 2020 年，他們確實打破了 IT 內部的資本支出，但他們都承認，IT 支出對於他們的結果至關重要。這齣現在 2021 年的支出中，好嗎？所以我懷疑 - 看，我們在這個電話會議上不像你們中的許多人那樣專家，但我懷疑我們最近看到的這種波動不會產生太大影響。現在，如果它進入一個整體熊市，修正，那將是不同的，但我認為我們離那個更遠。

I think in terms of near-term cyclical impacts, I don't really see them. Our clients tend to be people who are in much more -- what we provide technology for is much more in the critical applications. People need them for doing online payments. They need them for authorizations, reservations, retail banking, health care, telecom, within the government for critical applications. So we don't tend to see much of a short-term cyclical impact.

我認為就近期的周期性影響而言，我並沒有真正看到它們。我們的客戶往往是更多的人——我們提供的技術更多地是在關鍵應用中。人們需要它們進行在線支付。他們需要它們在政府內部進行關鍵應用的授權、預訂、零售銀行業務、醫療保健、電信。因此，我們往往不會看到太多的短期週期性影響。

Now on your last question, valuations. Look, I'm always clear, valuations -- M&A has to have an economic benefit for our company and our shareholders. Has valuations come down? Certainly, some targets may become more approachable that were not previously approachable. And I've said before, look, we have a little over $20 billion of flexibility over the next 3 years. So I'll just leave it at that. That's our total flexibility. As prices come down, certainly, more things come within range.

現在關於你的最後一個問題，估值。看，我一直很清楚，估值——併購必須為我們的公司和我們的股東帶來經濟利益。估值下降了嗎？當然，有些目標可能會變得更容易接近，而以前無法接近。我之前說過，看，我們在未來 3 年有超過 200 億美元的靈活性。所以我就這樣吧。這就是我們的全部靈活性。隨著價格的下降，當然，更多的東西會出現在範圍內。

Our next question comes from Toni Sacconaghi with Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自托尼·薩科納吉和伯恩斯坦。

Really, just some clarifications. You talked about the year-over-year improvement in PTI of about 4 points. It looks like the year-over-year Kyndryl contribution of $1.8 billion in revenue should come in at extremely high marginal contribution, maybe 70%, and then you're going to have a year-over-year contribution from fewer charges. So maybe you could dimension each of those and talk about whether you believe underlying PTI will improve. And then similarly, if you could just clarify your expectation for the acquisition contribution to revenue in 2022. And you didn't mention the divestiture of Watson Health. How we should think about that? Is that in addition to -- should we be factoring it in on top of the guidance? Or does your guidance include the divestiture of Watson Health's revenues?

真的，只是一些澄清。您談到了 PTI 同比提高了大約 4 個百分點。看起來，Kyndryl 的 18 億美元收入的同比貢獻應該以極高的邊際貢獻出現，可能是 70%，然後你將通過更少的費用獲得同比貢獻。因此，也許您可以衡量其中的每一個，並討論您是否相信潛在的 PTI 會有所改善。同樣，如果你能澄清一下你對 2022 年收購對收入的貢獻的預期。而且你沒有提到 Watson Health 的剝離。我們應該怎麼想？這是除了 - 我們是否應該在指導之上考慮它？或者您的指導是否包括剝離 Watson Health 的收入？

Toni, I'll take this. Thank you very much for the question. A handful there to address overall. So if I got it correctly, first of all, yes, we talked about our guidance, coming off of a very solid fourth quarter, gives us confidence in the foundation to really build on our midterm model. And we said 2022 would be the next step. We have progress, more work to do, mid-single-digit growth pre the Kyndryl contribution, operating margins up about 4 points and then free cash flow, as I answered Amit, at $10 billion to $10.5 billion.

托尼，我要這個。非常感謝您的提問。那裡有少數要解決的整體問題。因此，如果我理解正確，首先，是的，我們談到了我們的指導，第四季度非常穩健，這讓我們對真正建立中期模型的基礎充滿信心。我們說 2022 年將是下一步。我們取得了進展，還有更多工作要做，在 Kyndryl 貢獻之前實現了中個位數的增長，營業利潤率增長了約 4 個百分點，然後是自由現金流，正如我回答阿米特那樣，在 100 億美元到 105 億美元之間。

So when you look at that operating profit overall, first of all, yes, we're very transparent in our 2 key measures of success. Number one, the contribution of revenue growth. And we said we're going to be up mid-single digit prior to adding the Kyndryl 3 points roughly for the year. And the second key measure, which we've got our entire business, our operating model, aligned to, is free cash flow generation. And we're very transparent in our free cash flow generation that, that is all-in, with a baseline -- IBM post-separation baseline of $7.9 billion we reported in '21 going to $10 billion to $10.5 billion, on its way to delivering $35 billion cumulatively over time. Within that, I gave you the breakout of the bridge on cash flow. No matter how you cut it, we are going to invest more in capital expenditures this year. But when you take out the working capital efficiency of $0.5 billion, a very modest cash tax tailwind, and you take out the $0.5 billion of structural charges, you get substantial operating profit growth.

因此，當您查看整體營業利潤時，首先，是的，我們在衡量成功的兩個關鍵指標方面非常透明。第一，收入增長的貢獻。我們說我們將在今年大約增加 Kyndryl 3 點之前達到中個位數。第二個關鍵指標，我們的整個業務，我們的運營模式，與之一致，是自由現金流的產生。而且我們在自由現金流生成方面非常透明，這就是全部，有一個基線——IBM 分離後基線為 79 億美元，我們在 21 年報告將達到 100 億至 105 億美元隨著時間的推移，累計交付 350 億美元。在那之內，我給了你關於現金流的橋樑突破。無論你如何削減它，我們今年都將在資本支出上投入更多。但是，當您剔除 5 億美元的營運資本效率、非常溫和的現金稅順風以及 5 億美元的結構性費用時，您將獲得可觀的營業利潤增長。

And I would tell you, although we're not going to disclose based on commercial competitive reasons around the profitability of Kyndryl overall, and I don't think you would expect us because we don't do that with any strategic partner or client, that, that is a minimal component of the required operational profit improvement for 2022 overall. So we feel pretty good about the confidence in our guidance. It positions us on that midterm model, and it gives us tremendous financial flexibility to continue to invest, to extend our hybrid cloud leadership, invest in innovation to bring on new technology and return significant value back to our shareholders overall. I think that was the first one.

我會告訴你，雖然我們不會基於商業競爭原因披露關於 Kyndryl 整體盈利能力的信息，而且我認為你不會期望我們，因為我們不與任何戰略合作夥伴或客戶這樣做，那是 2022 年整體所需運營利潤改善的最小組成部分。因此，我們對我們的指導充滿信心。它使我們處於這種中期模式，它為我們提供了巨大的財務靈活性，可以繼續投資、擴大我們的混合雲領導地位、投資於創新以引入新技術並為我們的股東整體回報顯著價值。我認為那是第一個。

The second one, acquisition revenue contribution. Obviously, we've got work to do to close this. This won't close until later in the second quarter. And at that point in time, we will disclose information around Watson Health and what the implications are to our guidance overall, and we'll update investors as we always do.

第二個，收購收入貢獻。顯然，我們有工作要做以關閉它。這要到第二季度晚些時候才能結束。屆時，我們將披露有關 Watson Health 的信息以及對我們整體指導的影響，我們將一如既往地向投資者提供最新信息。

Our next question comes from Wamsi Mohan with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Wamsi Mohan。

Arvind, as you think about the midterm model and layer in some of these puts and takes that you guys highlighted in 2022, you could have up to maybe a couple of points of benefit from M&A and maybe up to a point from mainframe. As you look into 2023, some of these elements will turn into headwinds, particularly maybe up to 2 points from infrastructure. What are the things that you're looking at that should grow better than 2022 and 2023 to offset some of this to get back to that mid-single trajectory? And Jim, can you address 2022 seasonality for revenue growth and cash flow given the Kyndryl separation and really very different timing on the Z cycle?

Arvind，當您考慮到你們在 2022 年強調的其中一些看跌期權和期權中的中期模型和層時，您可能會從併購中獲得最多幾分收益，也可能從大型機中獲得最多收益。當你展望 2023 年時，其中一些因素將變成逆風，尤其是基礎設施可能高達 2 分。您正在研究的哪些事情應該會比 2022 年和 2023 年增長得更好，以抵消其中的一些，從而回到中單軌跡？吉姆，你能解決 2022 年收入增長和現金流的季節性問題嗎？

Yes. So Wamsi, thanks. Let me address the first part of the question, the mid-single-digit growth in 2022 going to 2023. Let me remind you, when we did our Investor Day in early October, we talked about the mid-single-digit growth comes from -- about 2 points of that for IBM comes from the Consulting growth, about between 1 and 2 points comes from the Red Hat growth and then we would get some from Infrastructure, aka mainframe, but there's more than mainframe. There's storage in there, and there's also power product cycles and then organic software. If you put that all together, you would get more than mid-single digit in a given year.

是的。所以Wamsi，謝謝。讓我談談問題的第一部分，2022 年到 2023 年的中個位數增長。讓我提醒你，當我們在 10 月初舉行投資者日時，我們談到了中個位數增長來自-- IBM 大約 2 分來自諮詢增長，大約 1 到 2 分來自 Red Hat 增長，然後我們會從基礎設施（也稱為大型機）中獲得一些，但不僅僅是大型機。那裡有存儲，還有電源產品週期，然後是有機軟件。如果將所有這些放在一起，那麼在給定的一年中，您將獲得超過中個位數的收益。

But we begin to see cycles of that. For example, on mainframe, when we say it comes late in the first half, that means it's really a second half '22 contribution. That carries on then into the first half of '23, maybe until the third quarter, maybe longer, depending on the cycle. If I look at Red Hat, we fully expect that to carry on. If I look at Consulting, we expect that to carry on. So if I look at all the underlying components and then as I bake in the acquisitions into software, those will begin to contribute a bit more and a bit more each year.

但我們開始看到這種循環。例如，在大型機上，當我們說它在上半年後期出現時，這意味著它實際上是 22 年下半年的貢獻。這種情況一直持續到 23 年上半年，可能會持續到第三季度，也可能會更長，具體取決於週期。如果我看看紅帽，我們完全希望這種情況繼續下去。如果我看一下諮詢，我們希望這種情況繼續下去。因此，如果我查看所有底層組件，然後當我將收購納入軟件時，這些組件將開始每年貢獻更多一點。

You asked about the overall acquisitions. I think that will give us about a point each year, which is what we had said before. But that is inside what I talked about, the 2 points and the 1 to 2 points and the point and the point. And so that is the thesis here. And by the way, so if you look at what I laid out, '22 and '23 look remarkably similar, not that different.

您詢問了整體收購情況。我認為這將給我們每年大約一分，這就是我們之前所說的。但這就是我所說的，2 點和 1 到 2 點以及點和點。這就是這裡的論點。順便說一句，如果你看一下我列出的內容，'22 和 '23 看起來非常相似，沒有那麼不同。

Jim, you want to -- the seasonality question?

吉姆，你想 - 季節性問題？

Yes. Wamsi, thank you very much. A very important question when we think about 2022, just building on what Arvind just said right there. If you think about the revenue growth profile and how it's going to play out in 2022, as we stated earlier, we expect the mainframe cycle this year, and that will happen late in the first half. So read that minimal contribution in 2Q and then mostly in the second half.

是的。萬西，非常感謝。當我們考慮 2022 年時，這是一個非常重要的問題，只是建立在 Arvind 剛才所說的基礎上。如果您考慮收入增長情況以及 2022 年將如何發展，正如我們之前所說，我們預計今年的大型機週期將發生在上半年後期。因此，請閱讀第二季度的最小貢獻，然後主要是在下半年。

But second, really, the big point I want to get out is, you can quite expect, due to the separation of Kyndryl, which was a highly annuitized-based business, I think we're going to have a different business skew throughout 2022 on top of the product cycle that I just talked about earlier. I would expect somewhere in the neighborhood, around profit, to be about 40-60 first half, second half. But I would tell you, underneath that 40% in the first half, it's going to be skewed more towards second quarter just given the new introduction of our mainframe cycle. And also last year, we had a very strong first quarter mainframe. We grew over 20%. So we're wrapping on a GA plus 11 quarter at the end of its cycle on the most successful mainframe program we've had, program to date. We're very late in that cycle. So I would expect more of that profit to be in second quarter and again 40 to 60 first half, second half.

但第二，真的，我想擺脫的重要一點是，你可以預料，由於 Kyndryl 的分離，這是一個高度年金化的業務，我認為我們將在整個 2022 年有不同的業務傾斜在我剛才談到的產品週期之上。我預計在附近的某個地方，大約利潤，上半年，下半年約為 40-60。但我會告訴你，在上半年低於 40% 的情況下，考慮到我們新推出的大型機週期，它將更加傾向於第二季度。同樣在去年，我們的第一季度大型機非常強勁。我們增長了 20% 以上。因此，我們將在其周期結束時結束 GA 加 11 季度，這是我們迄今為止最成功的大型機計劃。我們在那個週期中已經很晚了。所以我預計第二季度會有更多的利潤，上半年和下半年再次達到 40 到 60 倍。

Our next question will come from Jim Suva with Citigroup.

我們的下一個問題將來自花旗集團的 Jim Suva。

Both Jim and Arvind, you guys have done a tremendous amount of heavy lifting and work over the past couple of years, all the way from integration of Red Hat to spin out of Kyndryl. Looking ahead now, just strategically, my one question is, are we looking at the core company as now it's really time to harvest everything? Or are there still some more transformational or pruning or spinning out going on? And I'm not referring to the Watson Health, I'm talking about more bigger things. It seems like now it's time to start harvesting things, but maybe I'm not hearing your comments correctly.

Jim 和 Arvind，你們在過去幾年中完成了大量繁重的工作，從整合 Red Hat 到從 Kyndryl 分離出來。現在展望未來，就戰略而言，我的一個問題是，我們是否將核心公司視為現在真的是收穫一切的時候了？還是還有更多的轉型或修剪或分拆正在進行？我指的不是 Watson Health，我指的是更大的事情。似乎現在是時候開始收穫了，但也許我沒有正確聽到您的評論。

Jim, let me take that. This is Arvind. Look, I think that we have done a lot of the heavy lifting we need. I fundamentally believe that we have the right portfolio and we have the right focus to be delivering on our midterm model. Maybe I didn't quite understand the word harvest. I wouldn't say harvest. We have the correct portfolio to be able to grow where our clients have got demand and where the market has demand. We are now approximately a 30% consulting company, a 70% technology company. It's -- about a little bit under half is software.

吉姆，讓我接受。這是阿文德。看，我認為我們已經完成了很多我們需要的繁重工作。我從根本上相信我們擁有正確的投資組合，並且我們有正確的重點來實現我們的中期模型。可能我不太明白收穫這個詞。我不會說收穫。我們擁有正確的投資組合，能夠在客戶有需求和市場有需求的地方發展。我們現在大約是一家 30% 的諮詢公司，一家 70% 的技術公司。它——大約不到一半是軟件。

If I look in software, yes, there is a portion that is very much focused on transaction processing. We believe that model is going to be a mid-single-digit decline over the very long term. And if you look at some of the dynamics that Jim Kavanaugh talked about, you kind of see that then if you go over the past couple of years. Then if I look at automation, security, data and AI, I think these play very much into where there is a lot of demand in the market. If I look at consulting, that's how clients are going to go get their projects on digital transformation completed. And then if you look at hybrid infrastructure, we are quite focused in infrastructure on the areas that align to our high-value model. And if I look at both storage and mainframe, they give us a lot of benefit to also help drive the other parts of the portfolio.

如果我查看軟件，是的，有一部分非常關注事務處理。我們認為，從長遠來看，該模型將出現中個位數的下降。如果你看看吉姆卡瓦諾談到的一些動態，你就會發現，如果你回顧過去的幾年。然後，如果我看看自動化、安全性、數據和人工智能，我認為這些在市場上有很多需求的地方發揮了很大作用。如果我看諮詢，這就是客戶完成數字化轉型項目的方式。然後，如果您查看混合基礎設施，我們會非常關注與我們的高價值模型相一致的領域的基礎設施。如果我同時查看存儲和大型機，它們給我們帶來了很多好處，也有助於推動產品組合的其他部分。

If I got it right, Jim, to your question, no, you should not expect any major strategic divestitures like we just have talked about with Kyndryl. I think those are behind us. Now we have the portfolio that allows us to deliver on our medium-term more.

吉姆，如果我對你的問題沒做錯的話，不，你不應該期望像我們剛剛與 Kyndryl 討論過的那樣進行任何重大的戰略剝離。我認為那些在我們身後。現在我們擁有的投資組合可以讓我們在中期實現更多收益。

Our next question comes from David Grossman with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 David Grossman。

This is a question for Jim. Jim, if we take your revenue growth comments about '22 and the margin comments, it would just seem to yield net income below your free cash flow guide. And obviously, I'm assuming the new model, given the combination of software and professional services, would yield free cash flow of about 1x on a conversion basis. So if that math is right, can you help reconcile the difference between the implied EPS guide to that $10 billion and $10.5 billion of free cash flow?

這是吉姆的問題。吉姆，如果我們接受您關於 '22 的收入增長評論和利潤率評論，它似乎只會產生低於您的自由現金流指南的淨收入。顯然，我假設新模型結合了軟件和專業服務，在轉換基礎上將產生約 1 倍的自由現金流。所以，如果這個數學是正確的，你能幫助調和 100 億美元的隱含每股收益指南和 105 億美元的自由現金流之間的差異嗎？

Yes. Well, David, as we've talked, since Arvind has come on and taken over as Chairman and CEO, we have aligned our portfolio. We've aligned our capital investment allocation structure. We've aligned the operating model in this company. And I'm a very big believer in focus. And that focus is around 2 measures: revenue growth and free cash flow. So I am not going to talk about EPS guidance. And by the way, EPS, as you know quite well, there are many ways of getting to an EPS number.

是的。好吧，大衛，正如我們所說，自從 Arvind 上任並接任董事長兼首席執行官以來，我們已經調整了我們的投資組合。我們調整了資本投資分配結構。我們已經調整了這家公司的運營模式。我非常相信專注。重點圍繞兩個指標：收入增長和自由現金流。所以我不打算談論EPS指導。順便說一下，EPS，正如您所熟知的，有很多方法可以獲取 EPS 編號。

But I've given the breakout of the revenue growth overall. We've been very transparent mid-single digit. We said we're going to get an operating leverage improvement of about 4 points. When we broke that out by segment, we're going to get Software, we expect, up to mid-20s on our path to approaching 30 in our midterm model. We said around Consulting at the high end of our high single-digit revenue growth model. We're going to approach about 10% coming off of about 8.5 point margin business in 2021. And then Infrastructure, given we've got a product cycle, we expect above model on revenue, as Arvind answered earlier. It'll be a slight contribution to IBM, and we expect the operating margins in Infrastructure to be in the high teens.

但我已經給出了整體收入增長的突破。我們一直是非常透明的中個位數。我們說我們將獲得約 4 個百分點的運營槓桿改善。當我們按細分市場細分時，我們預計軟件將在 20 多歲的中期達到中期模型接近 30 的道路上。我們在高個位數收入增長模式的高端談到了諮詢。到 2021 年，我們將接近約 10% 的利潤率業務，利潤率約為 8.5 個百分點。然後是基礎設施，鑑於我們有一個產品週期，我們預計收入高於模型，正如 Arvind 之前回答的那樣。這將是對 IBM 的輕微貢獻，我們預計基礎設施的營業利潤率將達到十幾歲。

When you take all those components, what I just brought out, and then you do the free cash flow bridge, you get to quite healthy profit contribution to deliver that free cash flow. And I think, David, that is the focus that Arvind has got, 250,000 IBMers mobilized on revenue growth, that operating margin by segment to deliver the product mix and productivity and that free cash flow. And that's what we're going to continue to guide on as we move forward.

當你把所有這些組件，我剛剛提出的，然後你做自由現金流橋，你會得到相當健康的利潤貢獻，以提供自由現金流。我認為，大衛，這就是 Arvind 所關注的，250,000 名 IBM 員工調動了收入增長、按部門劃分的營業利潤率，以提供產品組合和生產力以及自由現金流。這就是我們在前進的過程中將繼續指導的內容。

Our next question comes from Kyle McNealy with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自傑富瑞的凱爾麥克尼利。

This one is about the trajectory of the Infrastructure business given the moderation in growth that you saw last quarter in Q3 and then the better performance you saw this quarter. Do you got any added confidence now after the performance this quarter that we won't see another soft quarter like in Q3 before we get into the next IBM Z cycle in the second half of the year?

這是關於基礎設施業務的軌跡，考慮到您在第三季度上個季度看到的增長放緩，然後您在本季度看到了更好的表現。在本季度的表現之後，您現在是否更有信心在下半年進入下一個 IBM Z 週期之前，我們不會看到像第三季度那樣的另一個疲軟的季度？

Kyle, maybe I'll start there. In the third quarter, I think we stated, even when we finished the third quarter, that we saw a pause on some of the CapEx purchases in Infrastructure because people were digesting what to do around the Kyndryl separation. That particular factor I do not believe is going to show up again. Now that said, as Jim said a bit earlier in an answer to one of the other questions, this is the 11th quarter of mainframe. When we look at that, we do expect softness on mainframe in the first quarter but not in the remaining quarters. I'd say that that's the only critical dynamic that could be different if we look at quarter-to-quarter, but that is expected and baked in, in what we're talking about for the year and what we're talking about in terms of infrastructure performance which, for the year, we do expect it to be better in '22 but more of that in the second half, as Jim pointed out earlier.

凱爾，也許我會從那裡開始。在第三季度，我認為我們已經說過，即使在第三季度結束時，我們也看到基礎設施中的一些資本支出購買暫停，因為人們正在消化圍繞 Kyndryl 分離應該做的事情。我不相信那個特殊的因素會再次出現。話雖如此，正如 Jim 早些時候在回答其他問題之一時所說的那樣，這是大型機的第 11 季度。當我們看到這一點時，我們確實預計第一季度大型機會出現疲軟，但其餘季度不會。我想說，如果我們按季度來看，這是唯一可能會有所不同的關鍵動態，但這是我們所談論的這一年以及我們在正如吉姆早些時候指出的那樣，就今年的基礎設施性能而言，我們確實預計它會在 22 年更好，但下半年會更多。

Our last question will come from Brian Essex with Goldman Sachs.

我們的最後一個問題將來自高盛的 Brian Essex。

Maybe for Arvind, some really nice business transformation technology consulting growth. And I'd love to hear your comments of -- or at least if you can reflect on customer conversations and what those have been like and how you might characterize some of that business activity, whether you feel as though we're in the early stages, maybe the middle innings of technology transformation efforts, how would you frame that business? And how much of that business is a leading indicator for Red Hat and automation growth?

也許對於 Arvind 來說，一些非常好的業務轉型技術諮詢增長。我很想听聽您的評論——或者至少如果您可以反思客戶對話以及這些對話的情況以及您可能如何描述某些業務活動，無論您是否覺得我們處於早期階段階段，也許是技術轉型工作的中間階段，您將如何構建該業務？該業務中有多少是紅帽和自動化增長的領先指標？

Thank you, Brian, for the question. So to go to the middle part of your comment, I would call it that we are in the early innings, not the middle or late innings, of the growth in Consulting. I wouldn't call it a very first inning, maybe the first inning was 2021, but early innings. So I think we have a long way to go on this.

謝謝你，布賴恩，你的問題。因此，要轉到您評論的中間部分，我認為我們處於諮詢增長的早期階段，而不是中期或後期階段。我不會稱其為第一局，也許第一局是 2021 年，但早期的一局。所以我認為我們在這方面還有很長的路要走。

Now I think that leads to the first part of yours, what are the anecdotes or what are the customer conversations that lead us there. Everyone is looking on how do you deploy technologies, be it Salesforce, Adobe, cloud technologies, to go improve their processes. It's actually the conversation has changed from 3 years ago. It's not about cost savings. It's actually much more about how can you deploy these technologies to improve a process: is it how do I do omnichannel and multichannel, is it how do I do resilience in my supply chain, is it about how do I use every warehouse and store as a point of delivery not just for physical but for physical or online commerce.

現在我認為這導致了你的第一部分，有哪些軼事或引導我們到達那裡的客戶對話。每個人都在關注如何部署技術，無論是 Salesforce、Adobe、雲技術，以改進他們的流程。實際上，這與 3 年前的對話已經發生了變化。這與節省成本無關。實際上更多的是關於如何部署這些技術來改進流程：我如何做全渠道和多渠道，我如何在我的供應鏈中實現彈性，我如何使用每個倉庫和商店作為交付點不僅適用於實體，而且適用於實體或在線商務。

As we begin to look across these topics and then as we look at the added cyber threats that come in, these do create a huge pull from clients on how do you improve the end-to-end customer experience, how do you improve the resilience of their supply chain, how do you improve the experience for employees, how do you begin to use -- I'll use the word bot because I'm a technologist, other than we use the word digital worker, that's probably a more correct word, to take care of all the upcoming -- how do you use our demographics on the skill shortage that is endemic in technology now. And that is sort of playing in. But I don't believe that the skill shortage is because of COVID. I do believe COVID may have exacerbated or created a pull-in of those demographics, but those, I think, are going to last us for the decade.

當我們開始研究這些主題時，當我們研究進來的額外網絡威脅時，這些確實會在您如何改善端到端客戶體驗、如何提高彈性方面從客戶那裡產生巨大的吸引力他們的供應鏈，你如何改善員工的體驗，你如何開始使用——我會使用機器人這個詞，因為我是一名技術專家，而不是我們使用數字工作者這個詞，這可能更正確一句話，照顧所有即將發生的事情——你如何利用我們的人口統計數據來解決現在技術上普遍存在的技能短缺問題。這有點在起作用。但我不認為技能短缺是因為 COVID。我確實相信 COVID 可能加劇或吸引了這些人口統計數據，但我認為，這些數據將持續十年。

Now I think that, that is a leading indicator of automation, Red Hat cybersecurity growth, for sure. I would call it -- it's not identical, meaning you're not going to see the same percentage from one to the other, but you absolutely will see correlation that is significant between those. And when Jim talked about the number of Red Hat engagements and then we talk about the Garage engagements from Consulting, those are then proof points of that correlation. So Brian, thank you for the question. And that is, by the way, why we see a lot of our confidence in the next few years of revenue growth.

現在我認為，這肯定是自動化、紅帽網絡安全增長的領先指標。我會稱之為 - 它不完全相同，這意味著你不會看到從一個到另一個的相同百分比，但你絕對會看到它們之間的顯著相關性。當 Jim 談到 Red Hat 參與的數量，然後我們談到 Consulting 的 Garage 參與時，這些就是這種相關性的證明點。所以布萊恩，謝謝你的問題。順便說一句，這就是為什麼我們對未來幾年的收入增長充滿信心。

So first, Pat and Jim, thank you, guys, for answering your part of the questions. Let me now make a couple of comments to wrap up. And I'm going to end where I started the call. We've been taking actions that position our business to address attractive hybrid cloud and AI opportunity. Our fourth quarter results and expectations for 2022 are a first glimpse of today's IBM and to reinforce our confidence in our strategy and our model. I hope that all of you are as excited about our future as I am. And I look forward to speaking with all of you again soon.

首先，Pat 和 Jim，謝謝你們回答你們的部分問題。現在讓我發表一些評論作為總結。我將在我開始通話的地方結束。我們一直在採取行動來定位我們的業務，以應對有吸引力的混合雲和人工智能機會。我們對 2022 年第四季度的業績和預期是對當今 IBM 的第一印象，並增強了我們對我們的戰略和模式的信心。我希望你們所有人都和我一樣對我們的未來感到興奮。我期待很快再次與大家交談。

Sheila, can we turn it back to you to wrap up the call?

希拉，我們可以把它還給你來結束通話嗎？

Thank you. Thank you for participating on today's call. The conference has now ended. You may disconnect at this time.

謝謝你。感謝您參加今天的電話會議。會議現已結束。此時您可以斷開連接。