International Business Machines Corp (IBM) 2021 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome, and thank you for standing by. (Operator Instructions) Today's conference is being recorded. (Operator Instructions)

歡迎光臨，感謝您的收看。 （接線員指示）今天的會議正在錄製中。 （接線生指示）

Now I will turn the meeting over to Ms. Patricia Murphy with IBM. Ma'am, you may begin.

現在我將會議交給IBM的Patricia Murphy女士。女士，您可以開始了。

Thank you. This is Patricia Murphy, and I'd like to welcome you to IBM's Fourth Quarter 2021 Earnings Presentation. I'm here with Arvind Krishna, IBM's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Jim Kavanaugh, IBM's Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We'll post today's prepared remarks on the IBM investor website within a couple of hours, and a replay will be available by this time tomorrow.

謝謝。我是 Patricia Murphy，歡迎您參加 IBM 2021 年第四季財報發表會。同時在場的還有 IBM 董事長兼執行長 Arvind Krishna 和 IBM 資深副總裁兼財務長 Jim Kavanaugh。我們將在幾個小時內將今天的準備好的演講稿發佈到 IBM 投資者網站上，重播將於明天此時提供。

I'll remind you the separation of our managed infrastructure services business, Kyndryl, was completed on November 3. As a result, our income statement is presented on a continuing operations basis. Our results also reflect the incremental revenue from the new commercial relationship with Kyndryl. Because this provides a onetime lift to our growth, we will provide the contribution to our revenue growth for the next year.

需要提醒的是，我們託管基礎設施服務業務 Kyndryl 的拆分已於 11 月 3 日完成。因此，我們的損益表將以持續經營業務為基礎。我們的績效也反映了與 Kyndryl 建立的新商業關係所帶來的增量收入。由於這筆收入將一次性提升我們的成長，我們將在明年繼續貢獻這筆收入。

In the spirit of providing additional information to investors, our presentation also includes non-GAAP measures. For example, all of our references to revenue and signings growth are at constant currency. We have provided reconciliation charts for these and other non-GAAP measures at the end of the presentation and in the 8-K submitted to the SEC.

本著向投資者提供更多資訊的精神，我們的簡報中還包含非公認會計準則 (non-GAAP) 指標。例如，所有提及收入和簽約成長的數據均以固定匯率計算。我們在簡報末尾以及提交給美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 的 8-K 文件中提供了這些指標和其他非公認會計準則 (non-GAAP) 指標的對帳表。

Finally, some comments made in this presentation may be considered forward-looking under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements involve factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially. Additional information about these factors is included in the company's SEC filings.

最後，根據1995年《私人證券訴訟改革法》，本簡報中的某些評論可能被視為前瞻性陳述。這些陳述涉及可能導致我們的實際結果產生重大差異的因素。有關這些因素的更多信息，請參閱公司提交給美國證券交易委員會 (SEC) 的文件。

So with that, I'll turn the call over to Arvind.

因此，我將把電話轉給 Arvind。

Thank you, Patricia, and thanks to all of you for joining us today. Our fourth quarter results reinforce our confidence in our strategy and model. With solid revenue growth, we are on track to the mid-single-digit trajectory we had laid out in our investor briefing last October.

謝謝帕特里夏，也謝謝各位今天的到來。我們第四季的業績增強了我們對策略和模式的信心。憑藉穩健的營收成長，我們正朝著去年10月投資者簡報會上提出的中個位數成長目標邁進。

The trend we see is clear. Across industries, clients see technology has a major source of competitive advantage. They realize that powerful technologies embedded at the heart of their business can lead to seismic shifts in the way they create value. This reality of technology being about a lot more than cost will persist and explains why clients are eager to leverage hybrid cloud and artificial intelligence to move their business forward.

我們看到的趨勢顯而易見。各行各業的客戶都認為科技是競爭優勢的重要來源。他們意識到，嵌入業務核心的強大技術可以徹底改變他們創造價值的方式。科技的意義遠不止於成本，這一現實將持續下去，這也解釋了為什麼客戶渴望利用混合雲和人工智慧來推動業務發展。

Our fourth quarter results illustrates the strong client demand we see in the marketplace for our technology and consulting. IBM Consulting again had double-digit revenue growth as our ecosystem play continues to gain momentum. Software revenue growth reflects strength in Red Hat and our automation offerings. Infrastructure had a good quarter, especially with regards to IBM Z and storage.

我們第四季的業績表明，市場對我們技術和諮詢服務的需求強勁。 IBM 諮詢業務再次實現兩位數營收成長，這得益於我們生態系統的持續發展。軟體收入的成長反映了 Red Hat 和我們自動化產品的強勁表現。基礎設施業務本季表現良好，尤其是在 IBM Z 和儲存方面。

Over the last 1.5 years, we have taken a series of actions to execute our hybrid cloud and AI strategy and improve our revenue profile, optimizing our portfolio, increasing investments, expanding our ecosystem and simplifying our go-to market. As we start to yield benefits from these actions, our constant currency performance improved through 2021.

在過去的一年半裡，我們採取了一系列措施來實施混合雲和人工智慧策略，提升收入狀況，優化產品組合，增加投資，擴展生態系統，並簡化市場進入流程。隨著這些措施初見成效，我們的固定匯率表現在2021年有所改善。

Our most significant portfolio action was the separation of Kyndryl. You will remember we had initially expected the spin by the end of the year, and we completed it in early November. As we discuss our results, we'll focus on the new basis and structure that encompasses today's IBM. As we look to 2022, we expect mid-single-digit revenue growth before Kyndryl and currency and $10 billion to $10.5 billion of free cash flow for the year. Both of these are consistent with our medium-term model.

我們最重要的投資組合措施是剝離Kyndryl。各位應該還記得，我們​​最初預計該業務將在年底前完成剝離，而最終在11月初完成了剝離。在討論績效時，我們將重點放在如今IBM的新基礎和新架構。展望2022年，我們預計扣除Kyndryl和貨幣因素後，全年營收將實現中等個位數成長，自由現金流將達到100億至105億美元。這兩項指標都與我們的中期模型一致。

Let me now spend a few minutes on what we are seeing in the market, how we address it and the progress we are making. We are seeing high demand for our capabilities in several areas. Clients are eager to automate as many business class as possible, especially given the new employee demographics. This dynamic is likely to play out over the long term. They are also using AI and predictive capabilities to mitigate friction in their supply chains. Cybersecurity remains a major area of concern as the cost of cybercrime, already in the billions of dollars, rises each year. As clients deal with these challenges and opportunities, they are looking for a partner they can trust and who has a proven track record in bringing about strategic transformation projects. This is why our strategy is focused on helping our clients leverage the power of hybrid cloud and AI.

現在，請允許我花幾分鐘時間介紹我們在市場上看到的情況、我們如何應對以及我們取得的進展。我們看到，我們在多個領域的能力需求旺盛。客戶渴望實現盡可能多的商務艙自動化，尤其是在新員工群體構成日益增長的情況下。這種趨勢可能會持續很長時間。他們也正在利用人工智慧和預測能力來緩解供應鏈中的摩擦。網路安全仍然是一個值得關注的主要領域，因為網路犯罪的成本每年都高達數十億美元，而且還在上升。在應對這些挑戰和機會的過程中，客戶正在尋找一個值得信賴的合作夥伴，並且在實施策略轉型專案方面擁有良好的業績記錄。正因如此，我們的策略專注於幫助客戶充分利用混合雲和人工智慧的力量。

Hybrid cloud is about providing a platform that can straddle multiple public clouds, private cloud and as-a-service properties that our clients typically have. Our approach is platform-centric, and the platform we have built is open, secure and flexible and it provides a solid base of the multiplier effect across software and services for IBM and our ecosystem partners.

混合雲旨在提供一個平台，能夠跨越客戶通常擁有的多個公有雲、私有雲和即服務屬性。我們的方法以平台為中心，我們所建構的平台開放、安全且靈活，為 IBM 及其生態系統合作夥伴在軟體和服務領域實現乘數效應奠定了堅實的基礎。

It starts with Red Hat, which offers clients unique software capabilities based on open source innovation. Our software, which has been optimized for that platform, helps our clients apply AI, automation and security to transform and improve their business workflows. Our consultants deliver deep business expertise and they cocreate with our clients to advance their digital transformation journeys. And our infrastructure allows clients to take full advantage of an extended hybrid cloud environment.

首先是紅帽，它為客戶提供基於開源創新的獨特軟體功能。我們的軟體已針對該平台進行了最佳化，可協助客戶應用人工智慧、自動化和安全技術來轉型和改進其業務工作流程。我們的顧問擁有深厚的業務專業知識，並與客戶共同創造，以推動他們的數位轉型之旅。我們的基礎設施使客戶能夠充分利用擴展的混合雲環境。

This strategy, along with the differentiated capabilities we bring to bear to our clients, have led to an increase in platform adoption and new business opportunities across the stack. We now have more than 3,800 hybrid cloud platform clients, which is up 1,000 clients from this time last year.

這項策略，加上我們為客戶提供的差異化能力，推動了平台採用率的提升，並帶來了全端的新業務機會。目前，我們擁有超過3,800家混合雲平台客戶，比去年同期增加了1,000家。

IBM Consulting continues to help drive platform adoption, with about 700 Red Hat engagements for the year. Clients like Dun & Bradstreet, National Grid, AIB and Volkswagen have all recently chosen IBM's broad hybrid cloud and AI capabilities to transform their processes and move their business forward.

IBM 諮詢服務持續協助推動平台採用，全年共承接了約 700 項 Red Hat 專案。鄧白氏、國家電網、美國工業銀行 (AIB) 和大眾汽車等客戶近期均已選擇 IBM 廣泛的混合雲和 AI 功能，以轉型流程並推動業務發展。

As I look back on the year, we had good success in broadening our ecosystem to drive platform adoption and to better respond to client needs. During our investor briefing, we talked about strategic partnerships that will yield billion-dollar businesses within IBM Consulting. As we move towards that, we had more than 50% revenue growth this year in partnerships with AWS, Azure and Salesforce. This adds to the strong strategic partnerships we have with others such as SAP, Oracle and Adobe.

回顧過去一年，我們在拓展生態系統、推動平台普及和更好地回應客戶需求方面取得了顯著成功。在投資者簡報會上，我們談到了將為 IBM 諮詢業務帶來數十億美元業務的策略合作夥伴關係。隨著我們朝著這一目標邁進，今年我們與 AWS、Azure 和 Salesforce 的合作實現了超過 50% 的營收成長。這進一步鞏固了我們與 SAP、Oracle 和 Adob​​e 等公司建立的牢固策略合作夥伴關係。

We're continuing to broaden our ecosystem reach. In the fourth quarter, we announced an expansion of our strategic partnership with Salesforce to run MuleSoft integration software on Red Hat OpenShift. We also created a host of new consulting services with SAP to help clients accelerate their journey to S/4HANA. Together with Deloitte, we announced DAPPER, an AI-enabled, managed analytics solution. And we have expanded our partnership with EY to help organizations leverage hybrid cloud, AI and automation capabilities to transform HR operations. We have also recently announced a host of new strategic partnerships with Cisco, Palo Alto Networks and TELUS, all focused on the deployment of 5G, edge and network automation capabilities.

我們正在持續拓展生態系覆蓋範圍。第四季度，我們宣布擴展與 Salesforce 的策略合作夥伴關係，在 Red Hat OpenShift 上運行 MuleSoft 整合軟體。我們也與 SAP 合作推出了一系列新的諮詢服務，幫助客戶加速 S/4HANA 轉型。我們與德勤合作推出了基於人工智慧的託管分析解決方案 DAPPER。此外，我們也擴展了與安永的合作關係，幫助企業利用混合雲、人工智慧和自動化功能轉型人力資源營運。我們最近也宣布與思科、Palo Alto Networks 和 TELUS 建立一系列新的策略合作夥伴關係，這些合作夥伴關係均專注於部署 5G、邊緣運算和網路自動化功能。

During 2021, we have been making changes to increase our focus and agility and build a stronger client-centric culture. This includes putting experiential selling, client engineering and cocreation at the heart of our client engagement model. We have completed thousands of IBM Garage engagements. And today, we have nearly 3,000 active engagements. We've invested in hundreds of customer success managers to help clients capture more value from our solutions. And we have upgraded our skills with fewer generalists and more technical specialists.

2021年，我們不斷做出改變，提升專注力和敏捷性，並建構更強大的以客戶為中心的文化。這包括將體驗式銷售、客戶工程和共同創造置於我們的客戶互動模式的核心。我們已經完成了數千個IBM Garage專案。如今，我們擁有近3000個活躍項目。我們投資了數百名客戶成功經理，幫助客戶從我們的解決方案中獲得更多價值。我們也提升了技能，減少了通才，增加了技術專家。

This is resonating well with our clients, and it's starting to contribute to our performance. The most important metric, of course, is revenue growth, but we are also pleased to see our client renewal rates increasing and our recurring revenue base growing. We are starting to see signs of sales productivity improvements, with average productivity per technology seller increasing from the first to the second half. At the same time, innovations that matter to our clients remain a constant focus, and our teams have worked hard to deliver a series of important innovations in the past quarter.

這引起了客戶的強烈共鳴，並開始提升我們的業績。最重要的指標當然是營收成長，但我們也欣喜地看到客戶續約率的提升和經常性收入基礎的擴大。我們開始看到銷售效率提升的跡象，每位技術銷售人員的平均效率從上半年到下半年有所提升。同時，我們始終專注於客戶關注的創新，我們的團隊在過去一個季度努力實現了一系列重要的創新。

Starting with AI, we added new natural language processing enhancements to Watson Discovery. We're also combining and integrating products such as Turbonomic, Instana and Watson AIOps to offer a complete set of AI-powered automation software to address the significant demand. This quarter, Red Hat announced that the Ansible automation platform is now available on Microsoft Azure, bringing more flexibility to clients and how they adopt automation.

從人工智慧開始，我們為 Watson Discovery 新增了新的自然語言處理增強功能。我們也整合了 Turbonomic、Instana 和 Watson AIOps 等產品，以提供一整套由人工智慧驅動的自動化軟體，以滿足龐大的需求。本季度，紅帽宣布 Ansible 自動化平台現已在 Microsoft Azure 上線，為客戶及其自動化應用帶來更大的彈性。

In partnership with Samsung Electronics, IBM announced a breakthrough that reorients how transistors are built upon the surface of a chip to enable tremendous increases in energy density. In Quantum, we unveiled Eagle, 127-qubit quantum processor. This is the first quantum chip that breaks the 100-cubic barrier and represents a key milestone on our path towards building a 1,000-cubit processor in 2023.

IBM 與三星電子合作，宣布了一項突破性進展，該進展重新定義了晶體管在晶片表面的構建方式，從而大幅提升了能量密度。在量子領域，我們推出了 Eagle，一款 127 量子位元的量子處理器。這是首個突破 100 立方比特大關的量子晶片，標誌著我們朝著 2023 年打造 1,000 立方比特處理器的目標邁出了重要的一步。

While organic innovations are important, we continue to acquire companies that complement and strengthen our portfolio. We made 5 acquisitions in the fourth quarter and a total of 15 acquisitions in 2021. 2 weeks ago, we announced the acquisition of Envizi. Many consumers are willing to pay more for products that are made by companies that are more environmentally sustainable. As the world continues to move towards a more circular economy, our clients' need is the ability to manage and measure their progress. Envizi's capabilities complement our own and help us respond to that client demand.

雖然有機創新至關重要，但我們仍在持續收購能夠補充和強化我們投資組合的公司。我們在第四季進行了5次收購，2021年共進行了15次收購。兩週前，我們宣布收購Envizi。許多消費者願意為環境永續性更高的公司生產的產品支付更高的價格。隨著世界繼續向循環經濟邁進，我們的客戶需要能夠管理和衡量其進展。 Envizi的能力與我們自身能力相輔相成，並幫助我們滿足客戶的需求。

Sustainability is important across a number of stakeholder groups, including clients, employees and investors. We are continuing to make good progress and are particularly proud of our diversity and inclusion scores, and our ability to attract and retain talent. Our efforts were recently recognized by JUST Capital who named IBM as one of America's most just companies.

永續發展對包括客戶、員工和投資者在內的眾多利害關係人群體都至關重要。我們持續取得良好進展，尤其為我們的多元化和包容性得分以及我們吸引和留住人才的能力感到自豪。我們的努力最近獲得了 JUST Capital 的認可，IBM 被評為美國最公正的公司之一。

Let me now close by emphasizing once again our fourth quarter results strengthen the conviction that we have in our ability to deliver our model of mid-single-digit revenue growth.

最後，我想再次強調，我們的第四季業績增強了我們實現中等個位數營收成長模式的能力。

Jim will take you through the fourth quarter and then provide more color on 2022. Jim, over to you.

吉姆將帶您回顧第四季度，然後為 2022 年提供更多展望。吉姆，交給你了。

Thanks, Arvind. Let me start out with a few of the headline numbers. We delivered $16.7 billion in revenue, 58% operating gross margin, operating pretax income of $3.5 billion and operating EPS of $3.35 for continuing operations.

謝謝，Arvind。首先，我先介紹幾個重要數字。我們的持續經營業務營收為167億美元，營業毛利率為58%，稅前營業利潤為35億美元，每股盈餘為3.35美元。

Last January, we said we expected performance to improve over the course of 2021 as we start to benefit from the actions we've taken. We have seen progress in our constant currency revenue growth rate every quarter and now again in the fourth. This is the first view of IBM post separation.

去年一月，我們曾表示，隨著我們採取的行動開始見效，預計2021年的業績將會有所改善。我們每季的固定匯率營收成長率都在提高，現在第四季也再次取得了進步。這是IBM拆分後的第一印象。

We had solid revenue performance, up nearly 9%. I'll remind you, this includes the incremental revenue from the new commercial relationship with Kyndryl, and we said we would be transparent on the contribution to our revenue growth for the first year. This quarter, our revenue growth includes about 3.5 points from the new relationship. Excluding this, IBM's revenue was up 5%.

我們的營收表現穩健，成長了近9%。需要提醒的是，這包括與Kyndryl建立的新商業關係帶來的增量收入，我們承諾將公開其對第一年收入成長的貢獻。本季度，我們的營收成長包含了與Kyndryl建立的新商業關係帶來的約3.5個百分點。剔除這部分收入，IBM的收入成長了5%。

We have aligned our operating model and segment structure to our platform-centric approach. In the fourth quarter, Software was up 10%, and Consulting was up 16%. These are our 2 growth vectors and together represent over 70% of our annual revenue. Infrastructure, more of a value vector, tends to follow product cycles and was up 2%. The Software and Infrastructure growth each include nearly 5 points from the new Kyndryl relationship while there is no contribution to Consulting's growth.

我們已根據以平台為中心的策略調整了營運模式和業務部門結構。第四季度，軟體業務成長了10%，諮詢業務成長了16%。這兩大成長引擎共同貢獻了我們年營收的70%以上。基礎設施業務則更體現為價值引擎，其成長趨勢往往跟隨產品週期，成長了2%。軟體和基礎設施業務的成長均包含近5個百分點來自與Kyndryl新建立的合作關係，而諮詢業務的成長則未產生任何貢獻。

Our platform-centric model has attractive economics. For every dollar of hybrid platform revenue, IBM and our ecosystem partners can generate $3 to $5 of software, $6 to $8 of services and $1 to $2 of infrastructure revenue. This drives IBM's hybrid cloud revenue, which is up 19% for the year. Post separation, revenue from our full stack cloud capabilities from Infrastructure up through Consulting now represents $20 billion of revenue or 35% of our total.

我們以平台為中心的模式具有頗具吸引力的經濟效益。每產生一美元的混合平台收入，IBM 及其生態系統合作夥伴就能創造 3 至 5 美元的軟體收入、6 至 8 美元的服務收入以及 1 至 2 美元的基礎設施收入。這推動了 IBM 的混合雲收入，今年成長了 19%。拆分後，我們從基礎設施到諮詢的全端雲端功能帶來的收入現已達到 200 億美元，占我們總收入的 35%。

Looking at our P&L metrics. Our operating gross profit was up 3%, and the $3.5 billion of operating pretax profit was up over 100%. Operating net income and earnings per share also grew.

看看我們的損益指標。我們的營業毛利成長了3%，35億美元的稅前營業利潤成長了100%以上。營業淨利潤和每股收益也實現了成長。

Let me highlight a couple of items within our profit performance. First, the year-to-year pretax profit reflects $1.5 billion charge to SG&A last year for structural actions to simplify and optimize our operating model and improve our go-forward position. We're continuing to invest to drive growth. Throughout the year, we have been aggressively hiring, with about 60% of our hires in Consulting. We're scaling resources in Garages, sign engineering centers and customer success managers, all to better serve our clients. We're increasing investments in R&D to deliver innovation in AI, hybrid cloud and emerging areas like Quantum. We're ramping investment in our ecosystem, and we acquired 15 companies in 2021 to provide skills and technologies aligned to our strategy, including capabilities to help win client architecture decisions.

讓我重點介紹一下我們利潤表現中的幾個面向。首先，同比稅前利潤反映了去年15億美元的銷售、一般及行政費用（SG&A），這筆費用用於我們為簡化和優化營運模式以及提升未來發展定位而採取的結構性措施。我們將繼續投資以推動成長。全年我們一直在積極招聘，其中約60%的招聘來自諮詢部門。我們正在擴充車庫、標誌工程中心和客戶成功經理的資源，以便更好地服務客戶。我們正在加大研發投入，以在人工智慧、混合雲和量子等新興領域實現創新。我們正在增加對生態系統的投資，並於2021年收購了15家公司，以提供符合我們策略的技能和技術，包括幫助客戶贏得架構決策的能力。

Regarding tax, our fourth quarter operating tax rate was 14%. This was up significantly from last year but roughly 2 to 3 points lower than what we estimated in October due to a number of factors, including the actual product and geographic mix of our income in the quarter.

關於稅費，我們第四季的營業稅率為14%。這一數字較去年同期大幅上升，但比我們10月份的預測低了約2到3個百分點，這主要歸因於一系列因素，包括本季實際產品和收入的地理分佈。

Let me spend a minute on our free cash flow and balance sheet position. Our full year consolidated cash from operations was $12.8 billion, and free cash flow was $6.5 billion. These are all-in consolidated results and include 10 months of Kyndryl and the cash paid for the 2020 structural actions and spin charges. IBM's stand-alone or baseline free cash flow for the year was $7.9 billion, which is aligned to our go-forward business. This excludes Kyndryl charges and pre-separation activity but includes the IBM portion of the structural actions. Payments for these IBM-related structural actions and deferred cash tax paid in 2021 contributed to the year-to-year decline in the stand-alone results.

請容許我花一點時間介紹一下我們的自由現金流和資產負債表狀況。我們全年合併經營活動現金流為128億美元，自由現金流為65億美元。這些是綜合業績，包括Kyndryl的10個月業績以及為2020年結構性行動和分拆費用支付的現金。 IBM本年度的獨立或基準自由現金流為79億美元，與我們未來的業務保持一致。這不包括Kyndryl的費用和分拆前的活動，但包括了IBM在結構性行動中的部分。這些與IBM相關的結構性行動的付款以及2021年支付的遞延現金稅款導致了獨立業績的同比下降。

In terms of uses of cash for the year, we invested over $3 billion in acquisitions. We continue to delever, with debt down nearly $10 billion for the year and over $21 billion since closing the Red Hat acquisition. And we returned nearly $6 billion to shareholders in the form of dividends. This results in a year-end cash position of $7.6 billion, including marketable securities and debt of just under $52 billion.

就本年度現金使用而言，我們投資超過30億美元用於收購。我們持續去槓桿，全年債務減少了近100億美元，自完成紅帽收購以來債務減少了超過210億美元。我們以股息形式向股東返還了近60億美元。這使得年末現金狀況達到76億美元，其中包括近520億美元的有價證券和債務。

Our balance sheet remains strong, and I'd say the same for our retirement-related plans. You'll remember that over the last years, we've shifted our asset base to a lower risk profile. In 2021, the combination of modest returns and higher discount rates improved the funded status of our plans. In aggregate, our worldwide tax qualified plans are funded at 107%, with the U.S. at 112%.

我們的資產負債表依然強勁，我們的退休相關計畫也是如此。各位應該還記得，過去幾年，我們已將資產基礎轉向風險較低的投資。 2021年，適度的回報和更高的折現率共同改善了我們計劃的資金狀況。整體而言，我們全球符合稅收合格標準的計畫的資金到位率為107%，其中美國為112%。

Now I'll turn to the details by segment, and I'll remind you we have put in place a simplified management system and segment structure aligned to our platform-centric model. And within the segments, we're now providing new revenue categories and metrics that will provide greater transparency into business trends and drivers.

現在我將分部門進行詳細介紹。需要提醒大家的是，我們已經建立了一套簡化的管理系統和部門架構，以符合我們以平台為中心的模式。在各個部門內，我們目前提供了新的收入類別和指標，這將使業務趨勢和驅動因素更加透明。

IBM Software delivered double-digit revenue growth in the quarter. This was driven by good revenue performance in both hybrid platform and solutions and transaction processing, the latter benefiting significantly from the new Kyndryl content. Software is important to our hybrid cloud strategy and our financial model. Our hybrid cloud revenue in software is up 25% for the year to more than $8.5 billion. And subscription and support renewal rates continue to grow again this quarter, contributing to a $700 million increase in the software deferred income balance over the last year. Hybrid platform and solutions revenue was up 9%. This performance is an indication of the strength across the software growth areas focused on hybrid cloud and AI. It's worth mentioning this includes only a point of help from the new Kyndryl commercial relationship.

IBM 軟體本季實現了兩位數的營收成長。這得益於混合平台與解決方案以及交易處理業務的良好收入表現，而後者則顯著受益於新的 Kyndryl 內容。軟體對我們的混合雲策略和財務模型至關重要。我們混合雲端軟體營收全年成長 25%，超過 85 億美元。本季訂閱和支援續訂率持續成長，使得軟體遞延收入餘額比去年增加了 7 億美元。混合平台與解決方案收入成長了 9%。這一業績表明，專注於混合雲和人工智慧的軟體成長領域表現強勁。值得一提的是，這也只包括了與 Kyndryl 建立新的商業合作關係所帶來的部分幫助。

Let me highlight some of the trends by business area. Red Hat revenue, all in, was up 21%. Both infrastructure and app dev and emerging tech grew double digits as RHEL and OpenShift address enterprise's critical hybrid cloud requirements. With this performance, we're continuing to take share with our Red Hat offerings.

讓我重點介紹一下各業務領域的一些趨勢。紅帽總收入成長了21%。由於RHEL和OpenShift滿足了企業關鍵的混合雲需求，基礎設施、應用開發和新興技術均實現了兩位數成長。憑藉這一業績，我們將繼續憑藉紅帽產品提升市場份額。

Automation delivered strong revenue growth, up 15%. As Arvind mentioned, there is strong market demand for automation. We had good performance in AIOps and management this quarter as we address resource management and observability. Clients are realizing rapid time to value from Instana and Turbonomic, 2 of our automation acquisitions. And integration grew with continued traction in Cloud Pak for Integration.

自動化業務收入強勁成長，成長達15%。正如Arvind所言，市場對自動化的需求強勁。本季度，我們在AIOps和管理方面表現優異，因為我們致力於解決資源管理和可觀察性問題。客戶透過我們收購的兩家自動化公司Instana和Turbonomic，實現了快速的價值實現。此外，隨著Cloud Pak for Integration的持續發展，整合業務也取得了長足的進步。

Data and AI revenue grew 3%. We have particular strength in data fabric, which enables clients to connect siloed data distributed across the hybrid cloud landscape without moving it. You'll recall, we talked about the data fabric opportunity back in October. We also had strong performance in business analytics and weather. Within these solutions, clients are leveraging our AI to ensure AI models are governed to operate in a fair and transparent manner.

數據和人工智慧收入成長了3%。我們在數據結構領域尤其強勢，它使客戶能夠連接分佈在混合雲環境中的孤立數據，而無需移動它們。大家應該還記得，我們​​早在10月就討論過資料結構帶來的機會。我們在業務分析和天氣領域也表現強勁。在這些解決方案中，客戶正在利用我們的人工智慧來確保人工智慧模型得到公平透明的管理。

Security revenue declined modestly in the quarter driven by lower performance in data security, while revenue grew 5% for the year. As we called out in our recent investor briefing, security innovation is an integral part of our strategy. In December, we launched a new data security solution, Guardium Insights, with further plans to modernize the broader portfolio throughout the year. This quarter, we also completed the acquisition of ReaQta, which leverages AI and machine learning to automatically identify and block threats at the end point. Putting this all together, our annual recurring revenue, or ARR, is now over $13 billion, which is up 8% this quarter. This demonstrates the momentum in our hybrid platform and AI strategy, including Red Hat and our suite of Cloud Paks.

本季度，由於資料安全業務表現不佳，安全收入略有下降，而全年收入成長了5%。正如我們在最近的投資者簡報中所述，安全創新是我們策略的重要組成部分。去年12月，我們推出了全新的資料安全解決方案Guardium Insights，並計劃在全年進一步更新更廣泛的產品組合。本季度，我們也完成了對ReaQta的收購，該公司利用人工智慧和機器學習技術自動識別並攔截終端威脅。綜合以上所有因素，我們的年度經常性收入（ARR）現已超過130億美元，本季成長了8%。這體現了我們混合平台和人工智慧策略（包括Red Hat和我們的Cloud Paks套件）的強勁發展勢頭。

Moving to transaction processing. Revenue was up 14%. This is above our model driven by a few underlying dynamics. First, all of the growth in transaction processing came from the new Kyndryl commercial relationship, which contributed more than 16 points of growth. Second, I'll remind you that we're wrapping on a very weak performance in the fourth quarter of last year, which was down 26%. And lastly, we had some large perpetual license transactions given the good expansion in the IBM Z capacity we've seen this cycle. While the new capacity is important, what's just as important is the continued strong renewal rates this quarter. These are both good proof points of our clients' commitment to our infrastructure platform and these high-value software offerings.

轉向交易處理。收入成長了14%。這高於我們的模型，這得益於一些基本動力。首先，交易處理業務的所有成長都來自與Kyndryl的新商業合作關係，該關係貢獻了超過16個百分點的成長。其次，我要提醒大家，我們去年第四季的業績非常疲軟，下降了26%。最後，鑑於本週期IBM Z容量的良好擴張，我們獲得了一些大額永久許可交易。雖然新增容量很重要，但同樣重要的是本季持續強勁的續約率。這些都是客戶對我們基礎設施平台和這些高價值軟體產品承諾的有力證明。

Looking at software profit. We expanded pretax margin by 12 points, including nearly 10 points of improvement from last year's structural actions.

看看軟體利潤。我們的稅前利潤率提高了 12 個百分點，其中包括比去年結構性措施提高近 10 個百分點。

Turning to Consulting. Revenue grew 16% with acceleration across all 3 revenue categories. Complementing this strong revenue performance, our book-to-bill was 1.2. Clients are accelerating their business transformations powered by hybrid cloud and AI to drive innovation, increase agility and productivity and capture new growth opportunities. Enterprises are turning to IBM Consulting as their trusted partner on this journey. They are choosing us for our deep client, industry and technical expertise, which drives adoption of our hybrid cloud platform and pulls through key technologies.

轉向諮詢業務。營收成長16%，三大收入類別均達到加速成長。除了強勁的營收表現外，我們的訂單出貨比達到1.2。客戶正在利用混合雲和人工智慧加速業務轉型，以推動創新、提高敏捷性和生產力，並抓住新的成長機會。企業紛紛選擇IBM諮詢作為其在這轉型過程中值得信賴的合作夥伴。他們選擇我們，因為我們擁有深厚的客戶、產業和技術專長，這推動了我們混合雲平台的採用，並引領了關鍵技術的落地。

Consulting's hybrid cloud revenue grew 34% in the quarter. For the year, cloud revenue is up 32% to $8 billion. Offerings and application modernization, which are centered on Red Hat, contributed to this growth. The Red Hat-related signings more than doubled this year and are now over $4 billion since inception. This quarter, we added over 150 client engagements, bringing the total since inception to over 1,000.

本季度，諮詢業務的混合雲收入成長了34%。全年雲端收入成長了32%，達到80億美元。以紅帽為中心的產品和應用程式現代化推動了這一成長。今年與紅帽相關的簽約金額成長了一倍多，自成立以來已超過40億美元。本季度，我們新增了150多位客戶，使自成立以來的客戶總數超過1,000位。

Our strategic partnerships also drove our performance. Revenue from these partnerships accelerated as the year progressed and was up solid double digits in the fourth quarter led by Salesforce, SAP, AWS and Azure.

我們的策略夥伴關係也推動了我們的業績。這些合作關係帶來的營收在一年內持續成長，在 Salesforce、SAP、AWS 和 Azure 的帶動下，第四季實現了兩位數的穩健成長。

Turning to our business areas. Our Consulting's growth was led by business transformation, which was up 20%. Business transformation brings together technology and strategic consulting to transform critical workflows at scale. To enable this, we leverage skills and capabilities in IBM technologies and with strategic ecosystem partners such as SAP, Salesforce and Adobe. Our practices are centered on areas such as finance and supply chain, talent, industry-specific solutions and digital design. This quarter, we had broad-based growth, reflecting strong demand for these solutions.

回顧我們的業務領域。我們諮詢業務的成長主要由業務轉型驅動，成長了20%。業務轉型將技術與策略諮詢結合，以大規模轉型關鍵工作流程。為了實現這一目標，我們充分利用IBM的技術能力以及與SAP、Salesforce和Adobe等戰略生態系統合作夥伴的合作。我們的業務重點關注財務和供應鏈、人才、行業解決方案以及數位設計等領域。本季度，我們實現了廣泛的成長，反映出市場對這些解決方案的強勁需求。

In technology consulting, revenue was up 19%. Technology consulting architects and implements cloud platforms and strategies. We leverage hybrid cloud with Red Hat OpenShift and work with providers, such as AWS and Azure, in addition to IBM Cloud. This quarter, we continue to see good performance in application modernization offerings that build cloud native applications and that modernize existing applications for the cloud.

技術諮詢業務收入成長了19%。技術諮詢業務致力於建構和實施雲端平台及策略。我們利用Red Hat OpenShift建立混合雲，並與AWS、Azure以及IBM Cloud等供應商合作。本季度，我們繼續在應用程式現代化產品方面取得良好業績，這些產品可用於建立雲端原生應用程序，並針對雲端環境對現有應用程式進行現代化改造。

Finally, application operations revenue grew 8%. This business line focuses on application and cloud platform services required to operationalize and run in both cloud and on-premise environments. Revenue growth was driven by offerings, which provide end-to-end management of custom applications in cloud environments.

最後，應用營運收入成長了8%。該業務線專注於在雲端和本地環境中運作和運行所需的應用程式和雲端平台服務。收入成長主要得益於在雲端環境中提供端到端客製化應用程式管理的產品。

Moving to consulting profit. Our pretax income margin expanded about 8 points, including just over 9 points from last year's structural actions. We're in a competitive labor market, and we continue to have increased pressure on labor costs due to higher acquisition, retention and wages. While we still expect to capture this value in our engagements, it will take a few quarters to appear in our profit profile.

轉向諮詢利潤。我們的稅前利潤率成長了約8個百分點，其中略高於9個百分點，這得益於去年的結構性措施。我們處於競爭激烈的勞動市場，由於新進員工取得、留任和薪資上漲，我們的勞動成本壓力持續增加。雖然我們仍然希望在業務中捕捉到這一價值，但這需要幾個季度才能體現在我們的利潤表中。

So now turning to the new Infrastructure segment. Revenue was up 2%. The Kyndryl commercial relationship contributed about 5 points of growth, which is higher than we expected in October. In this segment, we brought together hybrid infrastructure with infrastructure support, which was formerly technology support services. This allows us to better manage the life cycle of our hardware platforms and to provide end-to-end value for our clients.

現在我們來看看新的基礎設施業務。收入成長了2%。與Kyndryl的商業合作關係貢獻了約5個百分點的成長，高於我們10月的預期。在這一業務領域，我們將混合基礎設施與基礎設施支援（之前稱為技術支援服務）整合在一起。這使我們能夠更好地管理硬體平台的生命週期，並為客戶提供端到端的價值。

Hybrid infrastructure and infrastructure support revenue were up 2% and 1%, respectively, with pretty consistent contribution from the new Kyndryl relationship. Hybrid infrastructure includes IBM Z and distributed infrastructure. IBM Z revenue performance, now inclusive of both hardware and operating system, is down 4% this quarter. This is the 10th quarter of z15 availability and the combination of security, scalability and reliability continues to resonate with clients. This program continues to outpace the strong z14 program, and we ship more MIPS in the z15 program than any program in our history. Our clients are leveraging IBM Z as an essential part of their hybrid cloud infrastructure. And then in distributed infrastructure, revenue was up 7% driven by pervasive strength across our storage portfolio.

混合基礎設施和基礎設施支援收入分別成長 2% 和 1%，這主要得益於與 Kyndryl 的新合作關係。混合基礎架構包括 IBM Z 和分散式基礎架構。 IBM Z 的營收表現（現在包括硬體和作業系統）本季下降了 4%。這是 z15 上市的第 10 個季度，其安全性、可擴展性和可靠性的結合繼續引起客戶的共鳴。該項目繼續超越強勁的 z14 項目，我們在 z15 項目中交付的 MIPS 比我們歷史上任何項目都要多。我們的客戶正在將 IBM Z 作為其混合雲基礎架構的重要組成部分。然後在分散式基礎設施方面，由於我們儲存產品組合的普遍優勢，收入成長了 7%。

Looking at infrastructure profit. The pretax margin was up over 9 points but essentially flat, normalizing for last year's structural action.

看看基礎設施利潤。稅前利潤率上漲了9個百分點，但基本上持平，與去年的結構性舉措基本持平。

Now I'll wrap up with a discussion of how our investments and actions position us for 2022 and the longer term. We've been laser-focused on our hybrid cloud and AI strategy. Our portfolio, our capital allocation and the moves we've been making are all designed to create value through focus for our clients, our partners, our employees and our shareholders.

現在，我將總結我們的投資和行動如何為2022年及更長遠的未來做好準備。我們一直專注於混合雲和人工智慧策略。我們的投資組合、資本配置以及我們一直在採取的舉措，都旨在透過專注於為客戶、合作夥伴、員工和股東創造價值。

We took significant steps during 2021. The most impactful portfolio action was, of course, the separation of Kyndryl. We've also been allocating capital to higher growth areas, investing in skills and innovation and expanding our ecosystem. We've aligned our business to a more platform-centric business model. And we're simplifying and redesigning our go-to-market to better meet client needs and execute on our growth agenda.

2021年，我們邁出了重要一步。最有影響力的投資組合舉措當然是剝離Kyndryl。我們還將資金配置到高成長領域，投資技能和創新，並擴展我們的生態系統。我們已將業務調整為更以平台為中心的商業模式。此外，我們正在簡化和重新設計我們的行銷流程，以更好地滿足客戶需求並執行我們的成長議程。

Bottom line, we're exiting 2021 a different company. We have a higher growth, higher value business mix, with over 70% of our revenue in software and services and a significant recurring revenue base dominated by software. This will result in improving revenue growth profile, higher operating margin, strong and growing free cash flow and lower capital intensity, leading to a higher return on invested capital business.

總而言之，我們將以全新的面貌告別2021年。我們的業務組合成長更快、價值更高，其中超過70%的收入來自軟體和服務，軟體業務佔據了相當大的經常性收入基數。這將改善收入成長狀況，提高營業利潤率，帶來強勁且持續成長的自由現金流，並降低資本密集度，進而提高投資報酬率。

We also continue to have attractive shareholder returns through dividends. In October, we laid out a model for IBM's performance over the medium term defined as 2022 through 2024. The model is focused on our 2 most important measures of success: revenue growth and free cash flow. As we enter the new year, I'll talk about our expectations for 2022 performance along those dimensions.

我們也將繼續透過股息為股東帶來豐厚的回報。去年10月，我們制定了IBM中期績效模型，涵蓋2022年至2024年。此模型聚焦於我們最重要的兩個成功指標：收入成長和自由現金流。值此新年伊始，我將從這兩個維度談談我們對2022年業績的預期。

Starting with revenue. We expect to grow revenue at mid-single-digit rate at constant currency. That's consistent with the model. On top of that, in 2022, the new commercial relationship with Kyndryl will contribute an additional 3 points of growth spread across the first 3 quarters.

首先從收入開始。我們預計以固定匯率計算，收入將以中位數個位數成長。這與模型一致。此外，2022年，與Kyndryl建立的新商業關係將在前三個季度貢獻額外的3個百分點的成長。

Currency dynamics, unfortunately, will be a headwind. At current spot rates, currency is roughly a 2-point headwind to reported revenue growth for the year and 3 points in the first quarter.

不幸的是，匯率波動將成為一大阻力。以當前現貨匯率計算，匯率波動對公司全年報告的收入成長將造成約2個百分點的阻力，對第一季的營收成長將造成3個百分點的阻力。

For free cash flow, we expect to generate $10 billion to $10.5 billion in 2022. To be clear, this is an all-in free cash flow definition. The adjusted free cash flow view we provided in 2021 was useful given the significant cash impact associated with the separation and structural actions. Now in 2022, despite the fact we still have nearly $0.5 billion of impact from the charges, we're focusing on a traditional free cash flow definition. The $10 billion to $10.5 billion reflects a year-to-year improvement driven by lower payments for the structural actions, a modest tailwind from cash taxes, working capital improvements and profit growth resulting from our higher growth and higher value business mix. With this performance, we're on track to our model.

就自由現金流而言，我們預計2022年將產生100億至105億美元的收入。需要明確的是，這是一個完全基於自由現金流的定義。鑑於分離和結構性行動帶來的重大現金影響，我們在2021年提供的調整後自由現金流預測非常有用。如今到了2022年，儘管這些費用仍然對我們造成近5億美元的衝擊，但我們仍將專注於傳統的自由現金流定義。 100億至105億美元的收入反映了同比改善，這得益於結構性行動支出的減少、現金稅的溫和推動、營運資本的改善以及我們更高增長和更高價值業務組合帶來的利潤增長。憑藉這樣的業績，我們正朝著既定的模式邁進。

So now let me provide some color on our expectations for segment performance. Because this is a new segment structure, I'm going to spend a little more time and provide perspective on constant currency revenue growth and pretax margin in the context of our segment models.

現在，讓我來稍微解釋一下我們對各部門業績的預期。由於這是一個新的部門結構，我將花更多時間，結合我們的部門模型，來闡述我們對固定匯率收入成長和稅前利潤率的看法。

In Software, as we benefit from the investments in innovation and our go-to-market changes, we're seeing progress in our Software growth rate. In 2022, we expect growth at the low end of the mid-single-digit model and then another 5 to 6 points of revenue growth from our external sales to Kyndryl. We expect Software pretax margin in the mid-20s range for the year.

在軟體方面，由於創新投資和行銷策略的轉變，我們的軟體業務成長率正在穩步提升。我們預計2022年的成長速度將達到中等個位數的低端水平，同時，來自Kyndryl的外部銷售收入將再成長5到6個百分點。我們預計今年軟體業務的稅前利潤率將達到25%左右。

We have solid momentum in IBM Consulting revenue and expect this to continue into 2022 as we help clients with their digital transformations. This momentum and our book-to-bill ratio support revenue at the high end of our high single-digit model for the year, with double-digit growth in the first half. We expect low double-digit pretax margin for the full year with improving performance through the year as we make progress on price realization.

IBM 諮詢業務收入保持強勁成長勢頭，預計這一勢頭將持續到 2022 年，因為我們將協助客戶實現數位轉型。這一成長動能加上我們的訂單出貨比，支撐我們今年的營收達到高個位數成長模式的高端，上半年實現了兩位數成長。我們預計全年稅前利潤率將達到低兩位數，隨著價格實現的進展，全年業績將持續改善。

Infrastructure revenue performance will vary with product cycle. In 2022, with a new IBM Z introduction late in the first half, we expect performance above the model and a slight contribution to IBM's overall growth. On top of that, we're planning for about 2 to 3 points from the external sales to Kyndryl in 2022. This supports a high-teens pretax margin rate for the full year. These segment revenue and margin dynamics will yield about a 4-point year-to-year improvement in IBM's pretax operating margin for the full year and 2 to 3 points in the first quarter. In terms of tax, we expect a mid- to high teens tax rate, which is a headwind to our profit growth.

基礎設施收入表現將隨產品週期而變化。 2022年，隨著全新IBM Z在上半年末的推出，我們預期其業績將高於預期，並對IBM的整體成長貢獻不大。此外，我們計劃2022年對Kyndryl的外部銷售額將帶來約2至3個百分點的增幅。這將支撐全年稅前利潤率達到15%左右。這些部門收入和利潤率的動態變化將使IBM全年稅前營業利潤率年增約4個百分點，並在第一季實現2至3個百分點的增幅。在稅收方面，我們預計稅率將達到15%左右，這將對我們的利潤成長構成阻力。

Bringing this all together, we expect mid-single-digit revenue growth before Kyndryl and currency and $10 billion to $10.5 billion of free cash flow for the year, both in line with our midterm model.

綜合以上所有因素，我們預計，扣除 Kyndryl 和貨幣因素後，今年的收入將實現中等個位數增長，自由現金流將達到 100 億至 105 億美元，這兩項指標均符合我們的中期模型。

Patricia, let's go to the Q&A.

帕特里夏，我們進入問答環節。

Thank you, Jim. Before we begin the Q&A, I'd like to mention a couple of items. First, supplemental information is provided at the end of the presentation. In addition to our regular materials, we've included a summary of our new segments for your reference and historical data on segment pretax income. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝，吉姆。在開始問答環節之前，我想提幾點。首先，演示結束時會提供補充資訊。除了常規資料外，我們還提供了新部門的摘要供您參考，以及部門稅前收入的歷史資料。 （操作員指示）

Sheila, let's please open it up for questions.

希拉，請讓我們開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Amit Daryanani with Evercore.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Amit Daryanani。

Jim, I want to go back to this $10 billion to $10.5 billion free cash flow number for calendar '22. I know there's a lot of moving parts here. So it's more than what I think many had been modeling. And if I think about the Analyst Day framework we have talked about, it was supposed to be a $10 billion free cash flow in '20, adding $750 million, if I remember correctly, annually. So I would put this somewhere in $11.5 billion range, I think, is what I would have expected. So can you just talk about either relative to that, if you want. What is the delta to free cash flow? What are the puts and takes there? That would be really helpful.

吉姆，我想回到2022年100億到105億美元這個自由現金流數字。我知道這裡面有很多不確定因素。所以它比我認為很多人之前預測的要高。如果我考慮到我們之前討論過的分析師日框架，2020年的自由現金流應該達到100億美元，如果我沒記錯的話，每年增加7.5億美元。所以我認為這個數字應該在115億美元左右，我想這是我的預期。所以，如果您願意的話，能否談談與此相關的一些因素？自由現金流的增量是多少？其中的看跌期權和看漲期權分別是多少？這將會非常有幫助。

Sure. Amit, thank you very much for the question. First, let's just ground everyone because I want to make sure we have absolute clarity as we're returning to reporting all-in free cash flow to, one, align to our consistency of IBM's post-separation baseline, to your point, the $10 billion in 2020 and, more importantly, to align to our forward-looking guidance, which we talked at Investor Day, with a midterm model of $35 billion cumulatively over 2022 to 2024. For 2022 specifically, as you heard me say, we expect free cash flow to be between $10 billion and $10.5 billion all-in. And that puts us right on track for the $35 billion, mainly, Amit, because it includes still the remaining structural actions charges of about $0.5 billion in 2022. And when you look at that, because of structural actions, you're not going to have linearity in that $35 billion throughout 2022 to 2023 to 2024.

當然。阿米特，非常感謝你的提問。首先，我想確保大家對報告的準確性有絕對的了解，因為我們即將恢復報告總自由現金流。首先，這要與IBM拆分後的基線保持一致，也就是你提到的2020年100億美元的目標。更重要的是，這要與我們在投資者日討論過的前瞻性指引保持一致，中期模型設定為2022年至2024年累計自由現金流為350億美元。具體到2022年，正如你剛才所說，我們預計總自由現金流將在100億美元至105億美元之間。這使我們的目標鎖定在 350 億美元上，主要是因為其中仍然包括 2022 年剩餘的約 5 億美元結構性行動費用。從這個角度來看，由於結構性行動，這 350 億美元在 2022 年到 2023 年再到 2024 年期間不會呈線性增長。

So let me talk just a little bit so we get clarity around the drivers, to your point, at the heart of your question. First, we do have about $0.5 billion remaining in the cash impacts from the structural charges, as I stated earlier. That means year-to-year, it's about $1 billion, give or take, benefit. Second, we anticipate about $0.5 billion of working capital efficiency just based on our AR dynamics around volume. And also, we're entering a mainframe cycle late in the first half. Third, very minimal tailwind with regards to cash tax, which basically means the majority of this has to be delivered on our operational profit and invest less, I should say, investments in capital expenditures. And that's going to come from revenue growth at our model, mid-single digit, before we add on Kyndryl; operating leverage, which we talked about, about 4 points improvement for the year; a mainframe cycle; and us continuing to address the remaining stranded costs from the separation of Kyndryl as we move forward.

所以，讓我簡單談一下，以便我們能夠理清您問題的核心驅動因素。首先，正如我之前所說，結構性費用確實對現金產生了約5億美元的剩餘影響。這意味著同比來看，收益大約在10億美元左右，或多或少。其次，僅根據我們圍繞產量的應收帳款動態，我們預計營運資本效率將達到約5億美元。此外，我們將在上半年末進入大型主機週期。第三，現金稅方面的順風很小，這基本上意味著其中大部分必須透過我們的營運利潤來兌現，而應該減少對資本支出的投資。這將來自我們模型中的收入成長，即在加上Kyndryl之前達到中等個位數的成長；我們之前提到的營運槓桿，今年大約提高了4個百分點；大型機週期；以及我們將繼續解決Kyndryl分離後剩餘的擱淺成本。

So we feel very comfortable, one, $10 billion to $10.5 billion puts us in position to that $35 billion; and two, more importantly, that this cash provides us with ample financial flexibility to continue to invest in our business, both organically and inorganically, and return significant value to our shareholders with our committed dividend.

因此，我們感到非常放心，首先，100 億到 105 億美元可以讓我們達到 350 億美元的目標；其次，更重要的是，這些現金為我們提供了充足的財務靈活性，可以繼續以有機和無機方式投資於我們的業務，並透過承諾的股息為股東帶來可觀的價值。

Our next question comes from Katy Huberty with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的凱蒂·休伯蒂。

Arvind, I couldn't agree more with your comments about the structural uplift in IT spending from technology diffusion across all sectors. But as you think about the stock market volatility over the last several weeks, is there any reason to believe that there could be some near-term cyclical impact from that volatility? And then maybe if you can also comment on whether the recent pullback in software valuations increases the likelihood that you might look at doing bigger M&A this year.

Arvind，我非常同意你關於IT支出因技術在各行各業的傳播而出現結構性增長的觀點。但考慮到過去幾週的股市波動，是否有理由相信這種波動可能會在短期內產生一些週期性影響？此外，你是否可以評論一下，近期軟體估值的回落是否增加了今年你考慮進行更大規模併購的可能性？

Thanks, Katy, for the question, and thank you for also noticing and acknowledging the robust IT spending environment. Look, Katy, I mean like if I react to every stock market intraday volatility, that's a full-time occupation. I think today showed that actually these cycles are hard to predict. And if I back up and look at our clients, I think they are not really reacting to these volatilities. We saw this in the middle of 2020 also, not just in 2021 and 2022. For the first time, despite a down business cycle in 2020, we saw people actually decide to keep up their IT spending.

凱蒂，謝謝你的提問，也謝謝你注意到並認可強勁的IT支出環境。凱蒂，我的意思是，如果我對股市的每一次盤中波動都做出反應，那我就是一份全職工作。我認為今天的業績表明，這些週期實際上很難預測。如果我回過頭來看看我們的客戶，我認為他們並沒有真正對這些波動做出反應。我們在2020年中期也看到了這種情況，而不僅僅是在2021年和2022年。儘管2020年商業週期處於下行階段，但我們第一次看到人們真正決定維持IT支出。

Now I'll acknowledge in 2020, they did put a break on capital spending within IT, but they all acknowledge that IT spending was critical to how they would come out. And that showed up in 2021 spending, okay? So I suspect -- look, we are not as much expert on this as many of you on this call, but I would suspect that this volatility we are seeing recently will not have much of an impact. Now if it becomes into an overall bear market, correction, that would be different, but I don't think we're anywhere close to that.

現在我承認，2020年他們確實暫停了IT領域的資本支出，但他們都承認，IT支出對他們未來的發展至關重要。這在2021年的支出中也反映出來了，對吧？所以我懷疑——你看，我們在這方面不像在座的各位那樣專業，但我認為我們最近看到的這種波動不會產生太大的影響。現在，如果它進入整體熊市或回調，情況會有所不同，但我認為我們離那個目標還很遠。

I think in terms of near-term cyclical impacts, I don't really see them. Our clients tend to be people who are in much more -- what we provide technology for is much more in the critical applications. People need them for doing online payments. They need them for authorizations, reservations, retail banking, health care, telecom, within the government for critical applications. So we don't tend to see much of a short-term cyclical impact.

我認為就短期週期性影響而言，我並沒有真正看到。我們的客戶往往是那些更專注於關鍵應用領域的人—我們提供的技術主要應用於關鍵應用領域。人們需要它們進行線上支付。他們需要它們進行授權、預訂、零售銀行、醫療保健、電信以及政府內部的關鍵應用。因此，我們通常不會看到太多的短期週期性影響。

Now on your last question, valuations. Look, I'm always clear, valuations -- M&A has to have an economic benefit for our company and our shareholders. Has valuations come down? Certainly, some targets may become more approachable that were not previously approachable. And I've said before, look, we have a little over $20 billion of flexibility over the next 3 years. So I'll just leave it at that. That's our total flexibility. As prices come down, certainly, more things come within range.

現在回到你的最後一個問題，估值。我一直都很清楚，估值——併購必須為我們公司和股東帶來經濟效益。估值下降了嗎？當然，一些以前難以觸及的目標現在可能更容易被接受。我之前說過，我們在未來三年有略高於200億美元的彈性。所以我就到此為止。這就是我們的全部靈活性。隨著價格下降，肯定會有更多事情進入可負擔的範圍。

Our next question comes from Toni Sacconaghi with Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的托尼·薩科納吉。

Really, just some clarifications. You talked about the year-over-year improvement in PTI of about 4 points. It looks like the year-over-year Kyndryl contribution of $1.8 billion in revenue should come in at extremely high marginal contribution, maybe 70%, and then you're going to have a year-over-year contribution from fewer charges. So maybe you could dimension each of those and talk about whether you believe underlying PTI will improve. And then similarly, if you could just clarify your expectation for the acquisition contribution to revenue in 2022. And you didn't mention the divestiture of Watson Health. How we should think about that? Is that in addition to -- should we be factoring it in on top of the guidance? Or does your guidance include the divestiture of Watson Health's revenues?

真的，只是一些澄清。您提到稅前利潤年增了約4個百分點。看起來，Kyndryl 年成長18億美元，收入的邊際貢獻應該非常高，大概是70%，而且費用減少之後，您的收入也會比去年同期成長。所以，您可以分別衡量一下這些因素，並談談您是否認為基礎稅前利潤會有所改善。同樣，您能否解釋一下您對2022年收購對營收貢獻的預期。您沒有提到沃森健康的剝離。我們該如何看待這個問題？這是額外的——我們應該在指引之外再考慮它嗎？還是您的指引已經包含了沃森健康收入的剝離？

Toni, I'll take this. Thank you very much for the question. A handful there to address overall. So if I got it correctly, first of all, yes, we talked about our guidance, coming off of a very solid fourth quarter, gives us confidence in the foundation to really build on our midterm model. And we said 2022 would be the next step. We have progress, more work to do, mid-single-digit growth pre the Kyndryl contribution, operating margins up about 4 points and then free cash flow, as I answered Amit, at $10 billion to $10.5 billion.

托妮，我來回答這個問題。非常感謝你的提問。總的來說，有很多問題需要解答。如果我理解正確的話，首先，是的，我們談到了我們的業績指引，基於非常穩健的第四季度業績，我們對自己在中期模型上真正發展的基礎充滿信心。我們說過2022年會是下一步。我們取得了一些進展，但也還有更多工作要做，在Kyndryl貢獻之前，我們實現了中等個位數的增長，營業利潤率增長了約4個百分點，然後是自由現金流，正如我回答阿米特時所說的，將在100億美元到105億美元之間。

So when you look at that operating profit overall, first of all, yes, we're very transparent in our 2 key measures of success. Number one, the contribution of revenue growth. And we said we're going to be up mid-single digit prior to adding the Kyndryl 3 points roughly for the year. And the second key measure, which we've got our entire business, our operating model, aligned to, is free cash flow generation. And we're very transparent in our free cash flow generation that, that is all-in, with a baseline -- IBM post-separation baseline of $7.9 billion we reported in '21 going to $10 billion to $10.5 billion, on its way to delivering $35 billion cumulatively over time. Within that, I gave you the breakout of the bridge on cash flow. No matter how you cut it, we are going to invest more in capital expenditures this year. But when you take out the working capital efficiency of $0.5 billion, a very modest cash tax tailwind, and you take out the $0.5 billion of structural charges, you get substantial operating profit growth.

所以，當你看整體營業利潤時，首先，是的，我們在兩個關鍵的成功指標上非常透明。第一，營收成長的貢獻。我們說過，在加上 Kyndryl 的 3 個百分點之前，我們的收入成長將達到中等個位數。第二個關鍵指標，也是我們整個業務和營運模式都與之一致的指標，是自由現金流的產生。我們的自由現金流產生非常透明，這是一個基準——IBM 拆分後的基準是 79 億美元，我們在 2021 年報告稱，這個數字將增長到 100 億到 105 億美元，並有望隨著時間的推移累計達到 350 億美元。在此範圍內，我向大家介紹了現金流的突破性進展。無論如何削減，我們今年都將在資本支出上投入更多。但是，當你拿出 5 億美元的營運資本效率、非常溫和的現金稅收順風，並拿出 5 億美元的結構性費用時，你就會獲得可觀的營業利潤成長。

And I would tell you, although we're not going to disclose based on commercial competitive reasons around the profitability of Kyndryl overall, and I don't think you would expect us because we don't do that with any strategic partner or client, that, that is a minimal component of the required operational profit improvement for 2022 overall. So we feel pretty good about the confidence in our guidance. It positions us on that midterm model, and it gives us tremendous financial flexibility to continue to invest, to extend our hybrid cloud leadership, invest in innovation to bring on new technology and return significant value back to our shareholders overall. I think that was the first one.

我想告訴大家，儘管出於商業競爭的原因，我們不會披露 Kyndryl 整體盈利能力的相關信息，而且我認為大家也不會期待我們披露，因為我們沒有與任何戰略合作夥伴或客戶披露這些信息，但這只是 2022 年全年所需運營利潤增長的一小部分。因此，我們對自己的業績指引充滿信心。這讓我們立足於中期模式，並賦予我們巨大的財務靈活性，讓我們能夠繼續投資，拓展我們在混合雲領域的領導地位，投資創新以引入新技術，並為我們的股東帶來豐厚的回報。我認為這是首要目標。

The second one, acquisition revenue contribution. Obviously, we've got work to do to close this. This won't close until later in the second quarter. And at that point in time, we will disclose information around Watson Health and what the implications are to our guidance overall, and we'll update investors as we always do.

第二，收購收入貢獻。顯然，我們還有很多工作要做才能完成。這要到第二季晚些時候才能完成。屆時，我們將披露有關 Watson Health 的信息，以及其對我們整體業績指引的影響，並像往常一樣向投資者通報最新情況。

Our next question comes from Wamsi Mohan with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Wamsi Mohan。

Arvind, as you think about the midterm model and layer in some of these puts and takes that you guys highlighted in 2022, you could have up to maybe a couple of points of benefit from M&A and maybe up to a point from mainframe. As you look into 2023, some of these elements will turn into headwinds, particularly maybe up to 2 points from infrastructure. What are the things that you're looking at that should grow better than 2022 and 2023 to offset some of this to get back to that mid-single trajectory? And Jim, can you address 2022 seasonality for revenue growth and cash flow given the Kyndryl separation and really very different timing on the Z cycle?

Arvind，當您思考中期模型，並考慮到您在2022年強調的一些利弊時，您可能會從併購中獲得最多幾個百分點的收益，從大型機中獲得最多一個百分點的收益。展望2023年，其中一些因素將轉化為阻力，尤其是來自基礎設施的阻力，最多可能帶來兩個百分點的收益。您認為哪些因素應該比2022年和2023年成長得更好，進而抵銷部分阻力，回到中期單一軌跡？ Jim，考慮到Kyndryl的分離以及Z週期中截然不同的時間點，您能否談談2022年營收成長和現金流的季節性變化？

Yes. So Wamsi, thanks. Let me address the first part of the question, the mid-single-digit growth in 2022 going to 2023. Let me remind you, when we did our Investor Day in early October, we talked about the mid-single-digit growth comes from -- about 2 points of that for IBM comes from the Consulting growth, about between 1 and 2 points comes from the Red Hat growth and then we would get some from Infrastructure, aka mainframe, but there's more than mainframe. There's storage in there, and there's also power product cycles and then organic software. If you put that all together, you would get more than mid-single digit in a given year.

是的。謝謝 Wamsi。我先來回答問題的第一部分，即 2022 年至 2023 年的中位數個位數成長。提醒一下，我們在 10 月初的投資者日活動上討論過中等個位數增長的來源——IBM 的諮詢業務增長中約有 2 個百分點來自諮詢業務，1 到 2 個百分點來自 Red Hat 業務，還有一些來自基礎設施（也就是大型機）的貢獻，但不僅僅是大型機，還有存儲、電力產品週期以及有機軟件。如果把所有這些加在一起，一年下來，你的收入將超過中等個位數。

But we begin to see cycles of that. For example, on mainframe, when we say it comes late in the first half, that means it's really a second half '22 contribution. That carries on then into the first half of '23, maybe until the third quarter, maybe longer, depending on the cycle. If I look at Red Hat, we fully expect that to carry on. If I look at Consulting, we expect that to carry on. So if I look at all the underlying components and then as I bake in the acquisitions into software, those will begin to contribute a bit more and a bit more each year.

但我們開始看到這種週期性的變化。例如，在大型主機領域，當我們說它出現在上半年後期時，這意味著它實際上是在2022年下半年的貢獻。這種貢獻會持續到2023年上半年，甚至可能持續到第三季度，甚至更久，這取決於週期。如果我關注紅帽，我們完全預期這種情況會持續下去。如果我專注於諮詢業務，我們預計這種情況也會持續下去。因此，如果我關注所有底層元件，然後隨著我將收購納入軟體業務，這些元件的貢獻每年都會越來越大。

You asked about the overall acquisitions. I think that will give us about a point each year, which is what we had said before. But that is inside what I talked about, the 2 points and the 1 to 2 points and the point and the point. And so that is the thesis here. And by the way, so if you look at what I laid out, '22 and '23 look remarkably similar, not that different.

你問到整體收購的情況。我認為這每年會為我們帶來大約一個點，我們之前也說過。但這也包含在我之前討論的內容裡，2個點，1到2個點，以及點和點。這就是我的論點。順便說一句，如果你看看我列出的內容，22年和23年看起來非常相似，並沒有太大區別。

Jim, you want to -- the seasonality question?

吉姆，你想問──季節性問題嗎？

Yes. Wamsi, thank you very much. A very important question when we think about 2022, just building on what Arvind just said right there. If you think about the revenue growth profile and how it's going to play out in 2022, as we stated earlier, we expect the mainframe cycle this year, and that will happen late in the first half. So read that minimal contribution in 2Q and then mostly in the second half.

是的。 Wamsi，非常感謝。基於Arvind剛才所說的，當我們展望2022年時，這是一個非常重要的問題。如果您考慮一下收入成長以及它在2022年將如何發展，正如我們之前所說，我們預計今年將迎來大型機週期，這將在上半年末發生。所以，請理解為第二季的貢獻很小，然後主要在下半年。

But second, really, the big point I want to get out is, you can quite expect, due to the separation of Kyndryl, which was a highly annuitized-based business, I think we're going to have a different business skew throughout 2022 on top of the product cycle that I just talked about earlier. I would expect somewhere in the neighborhood, around profit, to be about 40-60 first half, second half. But I would tell you, underneath that 40% in the first half, it's going to be skewed more towards second quarter just given the new introduction of our mainframe cycle. And also last year, we had a very strong first quarter mainframe. We grew over 20%. So we're wrapping on a GA plus 11 quarter at the end of its cycle on the most successful mainframe program we've had, program to date. We're very late in that cycle. So I would expect more of that profit to be in second quarter and again 40 to 60 first half, second half.

其次，我真正想強調的重點是，由於Kyndryl業務的剝離，加上Kyndryl高度年金化，我認為在2022年，除了我之前提到的產品週期之外，我們的業務結構會有所不同。我預計上半年和下半年的利潤率大約在40%到60%之間。但我想說，考慮到我們新推出的大型機週期，上半年的利潤率低於40%，第二季的利潤率會更高。去年第一季度，我們的大型主機業務表現非常強勁，成長了20%以上。因此，我們即將結束一個GA+11季度的週期，這是我們迄今為止最成功的大型主機專案。我們在這個週期中處於非常靠後的位置。所以我預計更多的利潤將出現在第二季度，上半年和下半年的利潤率也是分別在40%到60%之間。

Our next question will come from Jim Suva with Citigroup.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Jim Suva。

Both Jim and Arvind, you guys have done a tremendous amount of heavy lifting and work over the past couple of years, all the way from integration of Red Hat to spin out of Kyndryl. Looking ahead now, just strategically, my one question is, are we looking at the core company as now it's really time to harvest everything? Or are there still some more transformational or pruning or spinning out going on? And I'm not referring to the Watson Health, I'm talking about more bigger things. It seems like now it's time to start harvesting things, but maybe I'm not hearing your comments correctly.

Jim 和 Arvind，你們在過去幾年裡做了大量繁重的工作，從整合 Red Hat 到剝離 Kyndryl。展望未來，從策略角度來看，我的一個問題是：現在真的到了收割一切的時候了，我們是否應該關注核心公司？還是說，還有一些轉型、精簡或剝離正在進行中？我指的不是 Watson Health，而是更宏大的事。現在看起來是時候開始收割了，但也許我沒理解錯你們的意思。

Jim, let me take that. This is Arvind. Look, I think that we have done a lot of the heavy lifting we need. I fundamentally believe that we have the right portfolio and we have the right focus to be delivering on our midterm model. Maybe I didn't quite understand the word harvest. I wouldn't say harvest. We have the correct portfolio to be able to grow where our clients have got demand and where the market has demand. We are now approximately a 30% consulting company, a 70% technology company. It's -- about a little bit under half is software.

吉姆，我來接聽。我是阿爾文德。你好，我認為我們已經完成了很多必要的重任。我從根本上相信，我們擁有正確的產品組合，也擁有正確的重點，能夠實現我們的中期目標。也許我不太理解「收穫」這個詞。我不會說「收穫」。我們擁有正確的產品組合，能夠在客戶有需求、市場有需求的地方成長。我們現在大約是一家30%的顧問公司，70%的科技公司。其中，軟體業務佔比略低於一半。

If I look in software, yes, there is a portion that is very much focused on transaction processing. We believe that model is going to be a mid-single-digit decline over the very long term. And if you look at some of the dynamics that Jim Kavanaugh talked about, you kind of see that then if you go over the past couple of years. Then if I look at automation, security, data and AI, I think these play very much into where there is a lot of demand in the market. If I look at consulting, that's how clients are going to go get their projects on digital transformation completed. And then if you look at hybrid infrastructure, we are quite focused in infrastructure on the areas that align to our high-value model. And if I look at both storage and mainframe, they give us a lot of benefit to also help drive the other parts of the portfolio.

軟體方面，確實有一部分業務非常專注於交易處理。我們認為，從長遠來看，該模式的業務將呈現中等個位數的下滑。如果你回顧一下Jim Kavanaugh提到的一些動態，回顧過去幾年，你會發現這一點。自動化、安全、數據和人工智慧方面，我認為這些領域與市場需求密切相關。諮詢方面，客戶可以透過諮詢完成他們的數位轉型專案。在混合基礎設施方面，我們在基礎設施方面非常專注於與我們高價值模式相符的領域。儲存和大型主機方面，它們為我們帶來了許多益處，也有助於推動產品組合的其他部分。

If I got it right, Jim, to your question, no, you should not expect any major strategic divestitures like we just have talked about with Kyndryl. I think those are behind us. Now we have the portfolio that allows us to deliver on our medium-term more.

吉姆，如果我沒理解錯的話，你的問題應該是：不，你不應該期待任何像我們剛才談到的Kyndryl那樣的重大戰略資產剝離。我認為這些已經過去了。現在，我們擁有的投資組合能夠讓我們更好地實現中期目標。

Our next question comes from David Grossman with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 David Grossman。

This is a question for Jim. Jim, if we take your revenue growth comments about '22 and the margin comments, it would just seem to yield net income below your free cash flow guide. And obviously, I'm assuming the new model, given the combination of software and professional services, would yield free cash flow of about 1x on a conversion basis. So if that math is right, can you help reconcile the difference between the implied EPS guide to that $10 billion and $10.5 billion of free cash flow?

這是問吉姆的問題。吉姆，如果我們把您關於2022年的收入成長和利潤率的預測結合起來，淨利潤似乎會低於您的自由現金流指引。顯然，我假設新的模型，考慮到軟體和專業服務的結合，將產生約1倍的自由現金流（以轉換率計算）。所以，如果這個計算正確，您能否幫忙解釋一下隱含每股盈餘指引與100億美元和105億美元自由現金流之間的差異？

Yes. Well, David, as we've talked, since Arvind has come on and taken over as Chairman and CEO, we have aligned our portfolio. We've aligned our capital investment allocation structure. We've aligned the operating model in this company. And I'm a very big believer in focus. And that focus is around 2 measures: revenue growth and free cash flow. So I am not going to talk about EPS guidance. And by the way, EPS, as you know quite well, there are many ways of getting to an EPS number.

是的。大衛，正如我們之前所說，自從阿爾溫德上任並接任董事長兼執行長以來，我們已經調整了投資組合，調整了資本投資配置結構，也調整了公司的營運模式。我非常相信專注。這個專注圍繞著兩個指標：收入成長和自由現金流。所以我不會談論每股收益指引。順便說一下，每股收益，如你所知，有很多方法可以計算每股收益。

But I've given the breakout of the revenue growth overall. We've been very transparent mid-single digit. We said we're going to get an operating leverage improvement of about 4 points. When we broke that out by segment, we're going to get Software, we expect, up to mid-20s on our path to approaching 30 in our midterm model. We said around Consulting at the high end of our high single-digit revenue growth model. We're going to approach about 10% coming off of about 8.5 point margin business in 2021. And then Infrastructure, given we've got a product cycle, we expect above model on revenue, as Arvind answered earlier. It'll be a slight contribution to IBM, and we expect the operating margins in Infrastructure to be in the high teens.

但我已經給出了整體收入成長的細分數據。我們一直非常透明地保持中等個位數成長。我們說過，我們的營運槓桿將提高約 4 個百分點。當我們按部門細分時，我們預計軟體業務的營運槓桿將達到 25% 左右，並預計在中期模型中接近 30%。我們之前說過，諮詢業務處於高個位數收入成長模型的高端。到 2021 年，我們將從約 8.5 個百分點的利潤率業務中實現 10% 左右的成長。然後是基礎設施業務，考慮到我們的產品週期，正如 Arvind 之前回答的那樣，我們預計基礎設施業務的收入將高於模型。這將對 IBM 產生輕微貢獻，我們預計基礎設施業務的營運利潤率將達到 15% 左右。

When you take all those components, what I just brought out, and then you do the free cash flow bridge, you get to quite healthy profit contribution to deliver that free cash flow. And I think, David, that is the focus that Arvind has got, 250,000 IBMers mobilized on revenue growth, that operating margin by segment to deliver the product mix and productivity and that free cash flow. And that's what we're going to continue to guide on as we move forward.

當你把所有這些因素都考慮進去，也就是我剛才提到的，然後加上自由現金流的橋樑效應，你就能獲得相當可觀的利潤貢獻，從而實現自由現金流。大衛，我認為，這就是Arvind所關注的重點，25萬IBM員工積極參與，致力於收入成長、各部門的營業利潤率，從而實現產品組合優化、生產力提升和自由現金流的提升。這也是我們未來將繼續堅持的方向。

Our next question comes from Kyle McNealy with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Kyle McNealy。

This one is about the trajectory of the Infrastructure business given the moderation in growth that you saw last quarter in Q3 and then the better performance you saw this quarter. Do you got any added confidence now after the performance this quarter that we won't see another soft quarter like in Q3 before we get into the next IBM Z cycle in the second half of the year?

這個問題是關於基礎設施業務的發展軌跡，考慮到您上個季度第三季的成長放緩，以及本季表現的改善。看到本季的表現後，您是否更有信心，在下半年進入下一個 IBM Z 週期之前，我們不會再看到像第三季那樣疲軟的季度？

Kyle, maybe I'll start there. In the third quarter, I think we stated, even when we finished the third quarter, that we saw a pause on some of the CapEx purchases in Infrastructure because people were digesting what to do around the Kyndryl separation. That particular factor I do not believe is going to show up again. Now that said, as Jim said a bit earlier in an answer to one of the other questions, this is the 11th quarter of mainframe. When we look at that, we do expect softness on mainframe in the first quarter but not in the remaining quarters. I'd say that that's the only critical dynamic that could be different if we look at quarter-to-quarter, but that is expected and baked in, in what we're talking about for the year and what we're talking about in terms of infrastructure performance which, for the year, we do expect it to be better in '22 but more of that in the second half, as Jim pointed out earlier.

凱爾，也許我應該從這裡開始。我想，在第三季度，即使在第三季度結束時，我們也注意到基礎設施領域的一些資本支出採購暫停，因為人們正在消化圍繞Kyndryl分離的應對措施。我認為這個因素不會再出現了。話雖如此，正如吉姆之前在回答另一個問題時所說，這是大型主機業務的第11季。從這個角度來看，我們確實預計第一季大型主機業務會疲軟，但在接下來的幾季不會。我想說，如果我們逐季度來看，這是唯一可能有所不同的關鍵動態，但這是預期之中的，並且已經融入我們談論的全年情況以及基礎設施績效中。正如吉姆之前指出的那樣，我們確實預計2022年全年情況會更好，但下半年會更好。

Our last question will come from Brian Essex with Goldman Sachs.

我們的最後一個問題來自高盛的布萊恩·艾塞克斯。

Maybe for Arvind, some really nice business transformation technology consulting growth. And I'd love to hear your comments of -- or at least if you can reflect on customer conversations and what those have been like and how you might characterize some of that business activity, whether you feel as though we're in the early stages, maybe the middle innings of technology transformation efforts, how would you frame that business? And how much of that business is a leading indicator for Red Hat and automation growth?

也許對 Arvind 來說，業務轉型技術諮詢業務的成長確實很不錯。我很想聽聽您的意見——或者至少您可以回顧一下與客戶的對話，了解這些對話是什麼樣的，以及您如何描述這些業務活動？您是否覺得我們正處於技術轉型工作的早期階段，或是中期階段？您如何規劃這項業務？這項業務在多大程度上可以作為 Red Hat 和自動化成長的領先指標？

Thank you, Brian, for the question. So to go to the middle part of your comment, I would call it that we are in the early innings, not the middle or late innings, of the growth in Consulting. I wouldn't call it a very first inning, maybe the first inning was 2021, but early innings. So I think we have a long way to go on this.

謝謝Brian的提問。回到你評論的中間部分，我認為我們正處於諮詢業務成長的初期，而不是中期或後期。我不會稱之為“第一階段”，或許2021年才是“第一階段”，但應該說是初期。所以我認為我們在這方面還有很長的路要走。

Now I think that leads to the first part of yours, what are the anecdotes or what are the customer conversations that lead us there. Everyone is looking on how do you deploy technologies, be it Salesforce, Adobe, cloud technologies, to go improve their processes. It's actually the conversation has changed from 3 years ago. It's not about cost savings. It's actually much more about how can you deploy these technologies to improve a process: is it how do I do omnichannel and multichannel, is it how do I do resilience in my supply chain, is it about how do I use every warehouse and store as a point of delivery not just for physical but for physical or online commerce.

現在，我認為這引出了您問題的第一部分，有哪些軼事或客戶對話引導我們做到這一點？每個人都在關注如何部署技術，無論是 Salesforce、Adobe 還是雲端技術，來改善他們的流程。實際上，與三年前相比，討論的重點已經改變了。現在不再是關於節省成本。實際上，更多的是如何部署這些技術來改善流程：是如何實現全通路和多通路？是如何實現供應鏈的彈性？是如何將每個倉庫和門市用作交付點，不僅是實體店，還包括實體或線上商務。

As we begin to look across these topics and then as we look at the added cyber threats that come in, these do create a huge pull from clients on how do you improve the end-to-end customer experience, how do you improve the resilience of their supply chain, how do you improve the experience for employees, how do you begin to use -- I'll use the word bot because I'm a technologist, other than we use the word digital worker, that's probably a more correct word, to take care of all the upcoming -- how do you use our demographics on the skill shortage that is endemic in technology now. And that is sort of playing in. But I don't believe that the skill shortage is because of COVID. I do believe COVID may have exacerbated or created a pull-in of those demographics, but those, I think, are going to last us for the decade.

當我們開始研究這些主題，然後研究隨之而來的網路威脅時，這些確實會極大地吸引客戶關注如何改善端到端客戶體驗，如何提高供應鏈的彈性，如何改善員工體驗，如何開始使用——我會用機器人這個詞，因為我是一名技術專家，除了我們使用數字工作者這個詞之外，這可能是一個更正確的詞，來處理所有即將出現的人口統計問題。這在某種程度上起到了作用。但我不認為技能短缺是因為新冠疫情。我確實認為新冠疫情可能加劇或產生了對這些人口統計數據的吸引力，但我認為，這種情況將持續十年。

Now I think that, that is a leading indicator of automation, Red Hat cybersecurity growth, for sure. I would call it -- it's not identical, meaning you're not going to see the same percentage from one to the other, but you absolutely will see correlation that is significant between those. And when Jim talked about the number of Red Hat engagements and then we talk about the Garage engagements from Consulting, those are then proof points of that correlation. So Brian, thank you for the question. And that is, by the way, why we see a lot of our confidence in the next few years of revenue growth.

現在我認為這無疑是自動化、紅帽網路安全成長的領先指標。我會稱之為——它們並不完全相同，這意味著你不會看到兩者之間相同的百分比，但你絕對會看到它們之間有顯著的相關性。 Jim 談到了紅帽的合作數量，然後我們談到了顧問部門的 Garage 合作，這些都是這種相關性的證明點。 Brian，謝謝你的提問。順便說一句，這也是我們對未來幾年收入成長充滿信心的原因。

So first, Pat and Jim, thank you, guys, for answering your part of the questions. Let me now make a couple of comments to wrap up. And I'm going to end where I started the call. We've been taking actions that position our business to address attractive hybrid cloud and AI opportunity. Our fourth quarter results and expectations for 2022 are a first glimpse of today's IBM and to reinforce our confidence in our strategy and our model. I hope that all of you are as excited about our future as I am. And I look forward to speaking with all of you again soon.

首先，Pat 和 Jim，感謝你們回答了你們的問題。現在，我想總結一下。我將繼續我一開始的發言。我們一直在採取行動，使我們的業務能夠抓住極具吸引力的混合雲和人工智慧機會。我們第四季的業績和對 2022 年的預期，讓我們對今天的 IBM 有了初步的了解，並增強了我們對策略和模式的信心。我希望大家和我一樣對我們的未來感到興奮。我期待著很快再次與大家交談。

Sheila, can we turn it back to you to wrap up the call?

希拉，我們可以再請你結束通話嗎？

Thank you. Thank you for participating on today's call. The conference has now ended. You may disconnect at this time.

謝謝！感謝您參加今天的電話會議。會議現已結束。您可以暫時斷開連線。