International Business Machines Corp (IBM) 2021 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome, and thank you for standing by.

歡迎，並感謝您的支持。

(Operator Instructions) Today's conference is being recorded.

（操作員說明）今天的會議正在錄製中。

If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time.

如果您有任何異議，您可以在此時斷開連接。

Now I will turn the meeting over to Ms. Patricia Murphy with IBM.

現在我將把會議交給 IBM 的 Patricia Murphy 女士。

Ma'am, you may begin.

女士，您可以開始了。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

This is Patricia Murphy, and I'd like to welcome you to IBM's First Quarter 2021 Earnings Presentation.

我是 Patricia Murphy，歡迎您參加 IBM 的 2021 年第一季度收益報告。

I'm here with Arvind Krishna, IBM's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Jim Kavanaugh, IBM's Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

我和 IBM 董事長兼首席執行官 Arvind Krishna 一起來到這裡。 IBM 高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Jim Kavanaugh。

We'll post today's prepared remarks on the IBM investor website within a couple of hours, and a replay will be available by this time tomorrow.

我們將在幾個小時內將今天準備好的評論發佈在 IBM 投資者網站上，明天這個時候將提供重播。

Some comments made in this presentation may be considered forward-looking under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

根據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》，本演示文稿中的一些評論可能被視為具有前瞻性。

These statements involve factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially.

這些陳述涉及可能導致我們的實際結果出現重大差異的因素。

Additional information about these factors is included in the company's SEC filings.

有關這些因素的其他信息包含在公司提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中。

Our presentation also includes non-GAAP measures to provide additional information to investors.

我們的演示文稿還包括為投資者提供額外信息的非公認會計原則措施。

For example, we present revenue and signings growth at constant currency throughout the presentation.

例如，我們在整個演示過程中以固定貨幣呈現收入和簽約增長。

In addition, to provide a view consistent with our go-forward business, we'll focus on constant currency growth adjusting for divested businesses for the impacted lines of total revenue, cloud and our geographic performance.

此外，為了提供與我們未來業務一致的觀點，我們將專注於對剝離業務的持續貨幣增長進行調整，以了解受影響的總收入、雲計算和我們的地理表現。

We have provided reconciliation charts for these and other non-GAAP measures at the end of the presentation and in the 8-K submitted to the SEC.

我們在演示文稿結束時和提交給 SEC 的 8-K 中提供了這些和其他非 GAAP 措施的調節圖表。

So with that, I'll turn the call over to Arvind.

因此，我將把電話轉給 Arvind。

Hello, everyone.

大家好。

Thank you for joining us today.

感謝您今天加入我們。

I'm pleased to be speaking with all of you again.

我很高興再次與大家交談。

In our last call, we shared our financial expectations for the year: revenue growth and $11 billion to $12 billion of adjusted free cash flow.

在我們上次的電話會議中，我們分享了我們對今年的財務預期：收入增長和 110 億至 120 億美元的調整後自由現金流。

While it's still early in the year and a lot remains to be done, we are confident enough to say that we are on track.

雖然現在還處於年初，還有很多工作要做，但我們有足夠的信心說我們正在走上正軌。

Last quarter, I also talked about how the event of the last year have increased the needs for our clients to accelerate their digital transformations.

上個季度，我還談到了去年的事件如何增加了我們客戶加速數字化轉型的需求。

This is continuing and the overall spend environment is improving, while there are some clear differences by geography and industry.

這種情況仍在繼續，整體支出環境正在改善，但地理和行業之間存在一些明顯差異。

With that as a backdrop, in the first quarter, we posted revenue growth at actual rates and grew free cash flow.

以此為背景，在第一季度，我們公佈了實際收入增長並增加了自由現金流。

We can see signs of progress in a number of areas.

我們可以看到許多領域取得進展的跡象。

Our results in Cloud & Cognitive Software and Global Business Services revenue show they are on an improved trajectory, including a return to growth in Consulting.

我們在雲與認知軟件和全球商業服務收入方面的結果表明，它們正處於改善的軌道上，包括諮詢業務恢復增長。

IBM Z again demonstrated its value as an enduring platform.

IBM Z 再次展示了其作為持久平台的價值。

Meanwhile, we improved margins in our Global Technology Services, led by Managed Infrastructure Services.

同時，我們提高了由託管基礎設施服務領導的全球技術服務的利潤率。

As Jim will explain to you, all of this helped to deliver free cash flow improvement, which is a key focus area.

正如 Jim 將向您解釋的那樣，所有這些都有助於改善自由現金流，這是一個重點關注領域。

As we move through the year, we will continue to execute on the important changes we are making to the company from the acquisitions we are making to the investments to expand our partner ecosystem, to the significant overhaul of our go-to-market model that we announced back in January to the changes we're bringing to our culture to instill more of a growth mindset.

隨著這一年的到來，我們將繼續執行我們對公司所做的重要改變，從我們正在進行的收購到擴大合作夥伴生態系統的投資，再到對我們的上市模式進行重大改革我們在一月份宣布了我們正在為我們的文化帶來的改變，以灌輸更多的成長心態。

As you know, we're also executing the separation of a Managed Infrastructure Services business, now branded Kyndryl, which is on track to be completed by the end of the year.

如您所知，我們還在執行託管基礎設施服務業務的分離，現在品牌為 Kyndryl，該業務有望在今年年底前完成。

These changes are all well underway.

這些變化都在順利進行。

Though as you would expect, it will take some time to see the full benefit.

儘管如您所料，需要一些時間才能看到全部好處。

I have immense confidence in our strategy around the transformative power of hybrid cloud and AI and the decisive moves we are making provide a solid foundation for us to unlock future growth.

我對我們圍繞混合雲和人工智能的變革力量的戰略充滿信心，我們正在採取的決定性舉措為我們開啟未來增長奠定了堅實的基礎。

As I've told you before, we see the hybrid cloud opportunity at $1 trillion, with less than 25% of workloads having moved to the cloud so far.

正如我之前告訴過你的，我們看到混合雲的機會價值 1 萬億美元，到目前為止，只有不到 25% 的工作負載遷移到了雲中。

We are reshaping our future as a hybrid cloud platform and AI company.

作為一家混合雲平台和人工智能公司，我們正在重塑我們的未來。

For us, the case for hybrid cloud is clear.

對我們來說，混合雲的情況很明確。

Businesses have made massive investments in their IT infrastructure and are dealing with specific constraints such as compliance, data sovereignty and latency needs in their operations.

企業對其 IT 基礎設施進行了大量投資，並正在處理特定的限制條件，例如其運營中的合規性、數據主權和延遲需求。

They need an environment that is not only hybrid, but a hybrid platform that is flexible, secure and built from open source innovation.

他們需要一個不僅是混合環境，而且是一個靈活、安全且基於開源創新構建的混合平台。

This gives them a credible path to modernizing legacy systems with advanced cloud services and building cloud-native apps.

這為他們提供了一條可靠的途徑，通過先進的雲服務對遺留系統進行現代化改造，並構建雲原生應用程序。

This is what we have built our platform for and why we have such confidence in our strategy.

這就是我們建立平台的目的，也是我們對我們的戰略充滿信心的原因。

IBM's approach is platform-centric.

IBM 的方法是以平台為中心的。

Linux, Containers and Kubernetes are the foundation of our hybrid cloud platform, which is based on Red Hat OpenShift.

Linux、容器和 Kubernetes 是我們基於紅帽 OpenShift 的混合雲平台的基礎。

We have a vast software portfolio, Cloud Paks, modernized to run cloud-native anywhere.

我們擁有龐大的軟件組合 Cloud Paks，經過現代化改造，可以在任何地方運行雲原生。

Our GBS expertise is a key factor in driving consumption and in helping our clients accelerate their digital transformation journeys.

我們的 GBS 專業知識是推動消費和幫助客戶加速數字化轉型之旅的關鍵因素。

And our systems and industry-specific public cloud provide differentiated infrastructure.

我們的系統和行業特定的公共雲提供差異化的基礎設施。

The economics of our platform are designed to drive growth across all of IBM.

我們平台的經濟性旨在推動整個 IBM 的增長。

The platform itself contributes.

該平臺本身做出了貢獻。

But then for every dollar of platform spend, clients spend $3 to $5 in software and $6 to $8 in services.

但是對於平台的每一美元支出，客戶在軟件上花費 3 到 5 美元，在服務上花費 6 到 8 美元。

IBM together with our growing ecosystem partners are positioned to capture that value.

IBM 與我們不斷壯大的生態系統合作夥伴一起準備抓住這一價值。

Let me now turn my attention to some of the progress and proof points we have seen in the past quarter as we execute on our hybrid cloud platform and AI strategy.

現在讓我把注意力轉移到上個季度我們在混合雲平台和人工智能戰略上執行時看到的一些進展和證明點。

In the last quarter, more companies chose IBM to help them realize the potential of hybrid cloud.

在上個季度，更多的公司選擇 IBM 來幫助他們實現混合雲的潛力。

That includes PNC Bank, Banorte and EGYPTAIR.

其中包括 PNC 銀行、Banorte 和埃及航空公司。

We're also helping Siemens replatform MindSphere, their IoT software on top of Red Hat OpenShift.

我們還幫助 Siemens 重新構建 MindSphere 平台，這是他們在 Red Hat OpenShift 之上的物聯網軟件。

That makes it possible for them to deploy on both public and private clouds.

這使他們可以在公共雲和私有云上進行部署。

We now have 3,000 clients using our hybrid cloud platform.

我們現在有 3,000 個客戶使用我們的混合雲平台。

We are also focused on helping companies use our rich AI capabilities to drive business outcomes.

我們還專注於幫助公司利用我們豐富的人工智能功能來推動業務成果。

In the past quarter, we have forged important partnership with companies like Palantir to simplify how businesses build and deploy AI applications across public clouds, private clouds and on-premise.

在上個季度，我們與 Palantir 等公司建立了重要的合作夥伴關係，以簡化企業跨公共雲、私有云和內部部署構建和部署 AI 應用程序的方式。

As part of this collaboration, IBM and Palantir are creating a new offering called Palantir for IBM Cloud Pak for Data, allowing clients to scale AI with confidence.

作為此次合作的一部分，IBM 和 Palantir 正在為 IBM Cloud Pak for Data 創建一個名為 Palantir 的新產品，讓客戶可以放心地擴展 AI。

In addition to Palantir, we continue to expand our AI ecosystem by building on partnerships with companies like Box, Cloudera and MongoDB.

除了 Palantir，我們還通過與 Box、Cloudera 和 MongoDB 等公司建立合作夥伴關係，繼續擴展我們的 AI 生態系統。

In March, the global research firm Gartner positioned IBM as a leader in 3 Gartner Magic Quadrant AI report, now making IBM a leader in 12 AI Magic Quadrants.

3 月，全球研究公司 Gartner 在 3 項 Gartner 魔力像限 AI 報告中將 IBM 定位為領導者，現在使 IBM 成為 12 個 AI 魔力像限的領導者。

This recognition highlights the important work we have been doing to bring new innovations from our research teams in core areas such as natural language processing, trust and automation.

這一認可突顯了我們一直在為我們的研究團隊在自然語言處理、信任和自動化等核心領域帶來新的創新所做的重要工作。

To facilitate our clients' adoption of our focused hybrid cloud and AI solutions, as I said in January, we announced significant changes in our go-to-market model.

正如我在一月份所說，為了促進我們的客戶採用我們專注的混合雲和人工智能解決方案，我們宣布對我們的上市模式進行重大改變。

We drastically simplified our sales model by adopting a single consistent segmentation in providing clients with a more technical and experiential approach and are investing in and elevating the role of our ecosystem partners to deliver more value to clients.

我們通過採用單一一致的細分為客戶提供更具技術性和體驗性的方法，大大簡化了我們的銷售模式，並正在投資和提升我們的生態系統合作夥伴的作用，以便為客戶提供更多價值。

Finally, we have adjusted the incentive structure for our sales teams to better align our reward system with our strategy.

最後，我們調整了銷售團隊的激勵結構，以更好地使我們的獎勵制度與我們的戰略保持一致。

While it will take time for these changes to yield results, we are seeing some green shoots from our transformation.

雖然這些變化需要時間才能產生結果，但我們看到了一些轉型的萌芽。

We are investing in and scaling what we call presales garages to co-create with our clients a lot earlier in the sales process.

我們正在投資並擴大我們所謂的售前車庫，以便在銷售過程的早期與我們的客戶共同創建。

We have had around 200 of our top clients experience new use cases for our solutions, and our ecosystem strategy and approach with strategic partners is already opening new areas of growth in GBS.

我們已經讓大約 200 名頂級客戶體驗了我們解決方案的新用例，我們的生態系統戰略和與戰略合作夥伴的方法已經在 GBS 開闢了新的增長領域。

I want to spend a minute on innovation.

我想花一點時間在創新上。

We have a strong pipeline of innovation, and some of these are already differentiating our portfolio.

我們擁有強大的創新渠道，其中一些已經使我們的產品組合與眾不同。

As I said earlier, IBM Z again demonstrated its value this quarter.

正如我之前所說，IBM Z 在本季度再次展示了它的價值。

This is thanks to the critical innovations we bring to each new generation of IBM Z, which continue to spur renewed interest and drive client demand.

這要歸功於我們為每一代新一代 IBM Z 帶來的關鍵創新，這些創新將繼續激發新的興趣並推動客戶需求。

In fact, z15 is now shipping the largest capacity in the platform's history.

事實上，z15 現在正在運送該平台歷史上最大的容量。

Another innovation we recently put on the market relates to Red Hat OpenShift, the cornerstone of our hybrid cloud platform.

我們最近投放市場的另一項創新與紅帽 OpenShift 相關，它是我們混合雲平台的基石。

OpenShift now includes new capabilities around security and scalability, both of which are critical to enterprise needs.

OpenShift 現在包括圍繞安全性和可擴展性的新功能，這兩者對於企業需求都至關重要。

Next up, our new Linux and Kubernetes-based innovations that will help businesses extend hybrid cloud to the edge, scale and secure cloud native applications and consume technologies on OpenShift as a managed service.

接下來，我們基於 Linux 和 Kubernetes 的新創新將幫助企業將混合雲擴展到邊緣，擴展和保護雲原生應用程序，並將 OpenShift 上的技術作為託管服務使用。

Let me now turn to other opportunities we are seizing that will play out over the longer term.

現在讓我談談我們正在抓住的其他將在長期內發揮作用的機會。

We announced that we are embarking on a decade-long partnership with the Cleveland Clinic, who will tap into the power of AI, hybrid cloud, high-performance computing and quantum computing to accelerate the process of scientific discovery.

我們宣布與克利夫蘭診所建立長達十年的合作夥伴關係，他們將利用人工智能、混合雲、高性能計算和量子計算的力量來加速科學發現的進程。

As part of this collaboration, IBM will install the first on-premises IBM Q System One in Ohio within the United States.

作為此次合作的一部分，IBM 將在美國俄亥俄州安裝第一個本地 IBM Q System One。

As you know, this is an area of incredible promise.

如您所知，這是一個充滿希望的領域。

Quantum has the potential to unlock hundreds of billions of dollars of value for our clients by the end of the decade.

到本世紀末，量子有潛力為我們的客戶釋放數千億美元的價值。

To seize this opportunity, we announced a road map to build a 1,000-plus cubit quantum computer by 2023.

為了抓住這個機會，我們公佈了到 2023 年建成 1000 多肘量子計算機的路線圖。

We remain excited by these developments.

我們仍然對這些發展感到興奮。

You may also have seen the partnership we announced with Intel to advance next-generation logic and packaging technologies.

您可能還看到了我們與英特爾宣布的合作夥伴關係，以推進下一代邏輯和封裝技術。

This collaboration will be key in accelerating innovation and enhancing the competitiveness of the semiconductor industry.

這種合作將是加速創新和提高半導體行業競爭力的關鍵。

As we reshape our future as a hybrid cloud platform and AI company, we are continuing to use our scale, scope and trust to make an impact on important societal issues.

隨著我們將未來重塑為一家混合雲平台和人工智能公司，我們將繼續利用我們的規模、範圍和信任來對重要的社會問題產生影響。

For instance, to help tackle the climate crisis, IBM announced a Net Zero pledge by 2030.

例如，為了幫助應對氣候危機，IBM 宣布了到 2030 年實現淨零排放的承諾。

We have been transparent in that our efforts are focused on reducing actual emissions without the use of carbon assets.

我們一直保持透明，因為我們的工作重點是在不使用碳資產的情況下減少實際排放。

We also intend to use emerging technologies to remove emissions equal to our residual emissions, leveraging IBM Research to help accelerate the discovery of materials for these technologies.

我們還打算使用新興技術來消除與我們的殘餘排放量相等的排放量，並利用 IBM 研究院來幫助加速這些技術的材料發現。

Fundamental to our business growth is fostering a culture of conscious inclusion where innovation can thrive and individuals progress.

我們業務增長的基礎是培養一種有意識的包容文化，在這種文化中，創新可以蓬勃發展，個人可以進步。

Last year, we made a commitment to be more transparent in how we report diversity and inclusion.

去年，我們承諾在報告多樣性和包容性方面更加透明。

And last week, we released our 2020 Diversity and Inclusion Report.

上週，我們發布了 2020 年多元化和包容性報告。

What you will see is that we have increased our diversity representation and achieved best-in-class inclusion scores from our employees.

您將看到的是，我們提高了多元化代表性，並從我們的員工那裡獲得了一流的包容性分數。

We are leveraging our industry-leading hiring practices, skills development and advancement opportunities to continue our progress.

我們正在利用我們行業領先的招聘實踐、技能發展和晉昇機會來繼續我們的進步。

I'm happy to expand on our ESG efforts in the Q&A.

我很高興在問答環節中擴展我們的 ESG 工作。

Before I turn it over to Jim, I will close with a comment on our future.

在我把它交給吉姆之前，我將對我們的未來發表評論。

Our objectives are clear: sustainable mid-single-digit revenue growth post separation and strong cash generation.

我們的目標很明確：分離後可持續的中個位數收入增長和強勁的現金產生。

We are taking actions investing and aligning compensation to achieve this, and our first quarter results are another step in the right direction towards our future.

我們正在採取行動投資和調整薪酬以實現這一目標，我們的第一季度業績是朝著我們未來的正確方向邁出的又一步。

Jim, over to you.

吉姆，交給你了。

Thanks, Arvind.

謝謝，阿文德。

I'll get right into the numbers.

我會直接進入數字。

In the first quarter, our revenue of $17.7 billion grew 1% as reported.

據報導，第一季度我們的收入為 177 億美元，增長了 1%。

We expanded our gross profit margin and grew gross profit dollars.

我們擴大了毛利率並增加了毛利潤。

We reported operating earnings per share of $1.77.

我們報告的每股營業收益為 1.77 美元。

Our adjusted free cash flow was up, resulting in $11.6 billion over the last year.

我們調整後的自由現金流增加，比去年增加了 116 億美元。

And our balance sheet and liquidity position remains strong.

我們的資產負債表和流動性狀況依然強勁。

As Arvind said, we made progress, but more to do.

正如 Arvind 所說，我們取得了進展，但還有更多工作要做。

You can see this progress in our revenue with an improvement in the trajectory of our constant currency results.

您可以看到我們收入的這種進步，以及我們不變貨幣結果的軌蹟的改善。

Our revenue was up in cloud and cognitive software and in systems, and consulting returned to growth.

我們在雲和認知軟件以及系統方面的收入增加了，而諮詢業務也恢復了增長。

We're capitalizing on clients' digital transformations and journeys to cloud.

我們正在利用客戶的數字化轉型和雲之旅。

We take a platform approach to hybrid cloud and AI with capabilities in infrastructure, software and cloud services.

我們在基礎設施、軟件和雲服務方面對混合雲和人工智能採取平台方法。

Across these, our cloud revenue was up 18% in the quarter and over the last 12 months and now stands at over $26 billion for the last year.

在這些方面，我們的雲收入在本季度和過去 12 個月中增長了 18%，現在去年的收入超過 260 億美元。

The fundamentals in our business model also continued to improve.

我們商業模式的基本面也在不斷改善。

We expanded operating gross profit margin this quarter by 110 basis points.

我們將本季度的營業毛利率擴大了 110 個基點。

I'll remind you how we manage our business.

我會提醒你我們如何管理我們的業務。

We manage our services businesses at the gross margin level while we look to capture the value of our product-based businesses at the pretax margin level.

我們在毛利率水平上管理我們的服務業務，同時我們希望在稅前利潤率水平上捕捉我們基於產品的業務的價值。

We had good margin expansion across our segments on those basis.

在此基礎上，我們在各個細分市場實現了良好的利潤率擴張。

This operating leverage enables a higher level of investment.

這種經營槓桿可以實現更高水平的投資。

We're investing in innovation, in skills and in our ecosystem as we execute on our hybrid cloud and AI strategy.

在執行混合雲和人工智能戰略時，我們正在對創新、技能和生態系統進行投資。

Our hiring was up year-to-year with thousands of people hired in the quarter.

我們的招聘人數逐年增加，本季度招聘了數千人。

We closed 6 acquisitions since mid-December.

自 12 月中旬以來，我們完成了 6 次收購。

We're building out presales garages, adding go-to-market and delivery capabilities in GBS and technical skills in Red Hat.

我們正在建造預售車庫，增加 GBS 的上市和交付能力，以及 Red Hat 的技術技能。

And we're increasing R&D in areas like AI and quantum to drive innovation.

我們正在增加人工智能和量子等領域的研發以推動創新。

Our year-to-year expense dynamics reflect this investment, though it was offset by lower workforce rebalancing charges year-to-year and lower travel expense in the current environment.

我們的逐年支出動態反映了這項投資，儘管它被逐年降低的勞動力再平衡費用和當前環境下較低的差旅費用所抵消。

Let me round out the financial highlights with some color on our strong free cash flow and balance sheet and liquidity position.

讓我用我們強勁的自由現金流、資產負債表和流動性狀況來完善財務亮點。

We had a good start to the year with $2.2 billion of adjusted free cash flow and $11.6 billion over the last year.

我們今年開局良好，調整後的自由現金流為 22 億美元，去年為 116 億美元。

This adjusted view excludes the cash impact of over $600 million for the structural actions initiated in the fourth quarter and transaction charges associated with the separation of our Managed Infrastructure Services business.

這一調整後的觀點不包括第四季度發起的結構性行動帶來的超過 6 億美元的現金影響以及與我們的託管基礎設施服務業務分離相關的交易費用。

This $2.2 billion of adjusted free cash flow is up $800 million year-to-year, driven by profit growth and continued working capital efficiencies.

在利潤增長和持續的營運資本效率的推動下，這 22 億美元的調整後自由現金流同比增加了 8 億美元。

We had both strong cash collections and renewal rates in software.

我們在軟件方面的現金收款和續訂率都很高。

These software renewal rates drove our total deferred income to over $18 billion, which is an all-time high.

這些軟件續訂率使我們的總遞延收入超過 180 億美元，創歷史新高。

Our free cash flow performance in the quarter contributed to our cash balance of $11.3 billion.

我們在本季度的自由現金流表現貢獻了我們 113 億美元的現金餘額。

While this is down $3 billion from year-end, our debt was down $5 billion.

雖然這比年底減少了 30 億美元，但我們的債務卻減少了 50 億美元。

We've now reduced our debt by about $17 billion from the peak.

現在，我們的債務已從峰值減少了約 170 億美元。

So we made good progress in deleveraging without sacrificing investments in our business or our solid dividend policy.

因此，我們在去槓桿方面取得了良好進展，而沒有犧牲對我們業務的投資或我們穩健的股息政策。

Now let me turn to the segments.

現在讓我轉向細分市場。

Cloud and cognitive software grew 1%, driven by cloud and data platforms and cognitive applications.

在雲和數據平台以及認知應用程序的推動下，雲和認知軟件增長了 1%。

Our cloud revenue in this segment was up 34%.

我們在該領域的雲收入增長了 34%。

This reflects the investments and actions we've taken to capture the hybrid cloud opportunity with solutions like Red Hat OpenShift and Cloud Paks.

這反映了我們為利用 Red Hat OpenShift 和 Cloud Paks 等解決方案抓住混合雲機會而採取的投資和行動。

Our cloud software is now $7.5 billion over the last year, which is about 1/3 of our segment revenue.

我們的雲軟件現在比去年達到 75 億美元，約占我們部門收入的 1/3。

Across cloud and cognitive software, we continue to increase our subscription and support renewal rates, driving the record deferred income levels I just mentioned.

在雲和認知軟件方面，我們繼續提高訂閱和支持續訂率，推動我剛才提到的創紀錄的遞延收入水平。

Looking at our software performance by business area.

按業務領域查看我們的軟件性能。

Cloud and data platforms, which is about half of our segment, revenue grew at a double-digit rate.

雲和數據平台約占我們細分市場的一半，收入以兩位數的速度增長。

Red Hat continued solid performance with normalized revenue growth of 15%, led by Red Hat Enterprise Linux and OpenShift, both of which continue to gain share.

在紅帽企業 Linux 和 OpenShift 的帶動下，紅帽繼續保持穩健的業績，正常收入增長 15%，兩者繼續獲得份額。

With about 3,000 hybrid cloud platform clients, we've now tripled the revenue base of OpenShift since we acquired Red Hat.

自從我們收購 Red Hat 以來，我們擁有大約 3,000 個混合雲平台客戶，現在 OpenShift 的收入基礎增加了兩倍。

I'll remind you, we wrapped on the acquisition of Red Hat in the middle of last year.

我會提醒你，我們在去年年中完成了對 Red Hat 的收購。

In this quarter, cloud and data platforms delivered 2% normalized growth.

本季度，雲和數據平台實現了 2% 的正常增長。

In cloud and data platforms, we also improved the year-to-year trajectory across a number of key areas, including integration, data science and AI ops.

在雲和數據平台方面，我們還改進了包括集成、數據科學和 AI 操作在內的多個關鍵領域的年度軌跡。

In Cognitive Applications, revenue grew 2% this quarter, led by strength across security software and services.

在認知應用方面，本季度收入增長 2%，主要得益於安全軟件和服務的強勁增長。

Our security solutions like Cloud Pak for Security helped enterprises to manage threats and protect their digital workloads, data and identities across hybrid cloud environments.

我們的安全解決方案（如 Cloud Pak for Security）幫助企業管理威脅並保護其跨混合雲環境的數字工作負載、數據和身份。

And clients opted for accelerated time to value and ease of operation with QRadar on cloud to rapidly detect cybersecurity tax and network breaches.

客戶選擇使用雲上的 QRadar 加快實現價值並簡化操作，以快速檢測網絡安全稅和網絡漏洞。

As expected, our transaction processing platforms revenue declined.

正如預期的那樣，我們的交易處理平台收入下降。

We provide flexibility to our clients in how they purchase our software.

我們為客戶購買我們的軟件提供了靈活性。

Clients buying behaviors have been shifting toward more consumption-based models.

客戶的購買行為已經轉向更多基於消費的模式。

As a result, we are seeing a continued preference for OpEx over CapEx, putting pressure on perpetual licenses.

因此，我們看到運營支出持續優於資本支出，給永久許可帶來壓力。

Though this quarter, we had strong renewals in our TPP software, which I'll remind you, provides mission-critical capabilities to our clients.

儘管本季度，我們的 TPP 軟件進行了強勁的更新，我會提醒您，它為我們的客戶提供了關鍵任務功能。

Looking at the profit for this segment, we expanded pretax margin while continuing to invest in new innovation and our software ecosystem.

從這部分的利潤來看，我們擴大了稅前利潤率，同時繼續投資於新的創新和我們的軟件生態系統。

Turning to GBS.

轉向GBS。

Our year-to-year revenue trajectory improved about 4 points, with consulting returning to growth.

隨著諮詢業務恢復增長，我們的收入同比增長了約 4 個百分點。

We're capitalizing on the market trends.

我們正在利用市場趨勢。

Clients are digitally transforming their businesses, using hybrid cloud and AI to capture new growth opportunities, increase productivity and create operating flexibility.

客戶正在對其業務進行數字化轉型，使用混合雲和人工智能來捕捉新的增長機會、提高生產力並創造運營靈活性。

Our revenue performance this quarter reflects this.

我們本季度的收入表現反映了這一點。

GBS cloud revenue growth accelerated to almost 30%, doubling its growth rate from the prior quarter with strong growth across the portfolio.

GBS 雲收入增長加速至近 30%，比上一季度的增長率翻了一番，整個投資組合都實現了強勁增長。

We see this in consulting where we had strong growth in our advice and build offerings.

我們在諮詢中看到了這一點，我們在諮詢和構建產品方面取得了強勁增長。

This reflects expanding practices with ecosystem partners like Salesforce and Adobe and strong momentum in our Red Hat practice.

這反映了與 Salesforce 和 Adobe 等生態系統合作夥伴不斷擴大的實踐，以及我們紅帽實踐的強勁勢頭。

In fact, we doubled the number of Red Hat client engagements from the prior year to over 150, working with companies such as HBO, Marriott, Vodafone and Honda.

事實上，我們與 HBO、萬豪、沃達丰和本田等公司合作的紅帽客戶數量比上一年翻了一番，達到 150 多個。

We've now signed $2 billion of business in our Red Hat practice inception to date.

迄今為止，我們已經在 Red Hat 實踐開始時簽署了 20 億美元的業務。

Within Application Management, we had growth in offerings which build and move applications to the cloud.

在應用程序管理中，我們在構建應用程序並將其遷移到雲的產品方面有所增長。

This growth was offset by declines in on-premise activity.

這一增長被本地活動的下降所抵消。

Our application incumbency enables GBS to be the partner of choice for our clients' digital transformation.

我們的應用程序使 GBS 成為我們客戶數字化轉型的首選合作夥伴。

It is high value to our clients and to IBM and is an important component of IBM's hybrid cloud strategy and platform adoption.

它對我們的客戶和 IBM 都具有很高的價值，並且是 IBM 混合雲戰略和平台採用的重要組成部分。

For example, GBS continues to drive 1/3 of our Cloud Pak revenue.

例如，GBS 繼續推動我們 Cloud Pak 收入的 1/3。

And of those engagements, roughly 80% are with application management clients.

在這些參與中，大約 80% 與應用程序管理客戶有關。

We are also capturing the opportunity in business transformation services or what we call intelligent workflows.

我們還在業務轉型服務或我們所說的智能工作流程中抓住機會。

Within consulting, we had double-digit growth in offerings, which leverage data and AI to transform client processes in areas like finance and supply chain.

在諮詢領域，我們的產品實現了兩位數的增長，這些產品利用數據和人工智能來改變金融和供應鍊等領域的客戶流程。

And in Global Process Services, revenue growth accelerated to 19%.

在全球流程服務中，收入增長加速至 19%。

We had broad-based growth in areas such as finance and talent and transformation as clients leverage hybrid cloud to scale their activities to capture productivity and gain insights.

隨著客戶利用混合雲來擴展他們的活動以提高生產力並獲得洞察力，我們在金融、人才和轉型等領域實現了廣泛的增長。

Turning to profit.

轉向盈利。

We continue to expand GBS gross margin, which was up 100 basis points this quarter.

我們繼續擴大 GBS 毛利率，本季度上升了 100 個基點。

This was driven by our shift to higher value offerings, increased productivity and improving delivery capabilities, which results in better margin realization.

這是由於我們轉向更高價值的產品、提高生產力和提高交付能力，從而實現更好的利潤實現。

In this quarter, we still had some margin benefit from reduced client-related travel.

在本季度，我們仍然從減少與客戶相關的旅行中獲得了一些利潤。

At the same time, we're continuing to invest in GBS organically and inorganically to accelerate the revenue performance.

與此同時，我們將繼續有機地和無機地投資 GBS，以加快收入表現。

We closed 2 acquisitions in the quarter.

我們在本季度完成了 2 次收購。

We are building and expanding practices in support of ISV partners, and we continue to hire adding more sales and delivery capacity, contributing to an increase of more than 5% in our go-to-market resources since last year.

我們正在建立和擴展實踐以支持 ISV 合作夥伴，並且我們繼續招聘以增加更多的銷售和交付能力，自去年以來我們的上市資源增加了 5% 以上。

Systems revenue was up 2%, led by strong performance in IBM Z, while product cycle dynamics continue to play out across power and storage.

由於 IBM Z 的強勁表現，系統收入增長了 2%，而產品週期動態繼續在電源和存儲領域發揮作用。

Our IBM Z revenue was up 49%.

我們的 IBM Z 收入增長了 49%。

That's very strong growth, especially more than 6 quarters into the z15 product cycle.

這是非常強勁的增長，尤其是進入 z15 產品週期的 6 個多季度。

We had traction in areas like financial services, where robust market volatility drove demand for increased capacity.

我們在金融服務等領域具有吸引力，強勁的市場波動推動了對增加容量的需求。

Clients also purchased z15 for its enterprise-grade security and unmatched reliability for regulatory requirements.

客戶還購買了 z15，因為它具有企業級安全性和無與倫比的可靠性，可滿足法規要求。

Simply put, this platform is secure, scalable and reliable.

簡單地說，這個平台是安全的、可擴展的和可靠的。

IBM Z is an enduring platform, developed and optimized to support enterprise's most mission-critical applications.

IBM Z 是一個經久不衰的平台，經過開發和優化以支持企業最關鍵的任務應用程序。

The IBM Z platform is also an important element in our hybrid cloud strategy, attracting new workloads, integrating cloud native capabilities, including Red Hat, and supporting our industry-specific cloud solutions.

IBM Z 平台也是我們混合雲戰略中的一個重要元素，它可以吸引新的工作負載、集成包括紅帽在內的雲原生功能，並支持我們行業特定的雲解決方案。

And with this quarter's performance, the z15 program to date has now outpaced the strong performance of the z14 program.

憑藉本季度的表現，迄今為止的 z15 計劃已經超過了 z14 計劃的強勁表現。

This further demonstrates the lasting value of the IBM Z platform.

這進一步證明了 IBM Z 平台的持久價值。

With solid gross margin performance in IBM Z and Power, our Systems segment improved gross and pretax margins year-to-year.

憑藉 IBM Z 和 Power 的穩健毛利率表現，我們的系統部門的毛利率和稅前利潤率逐年提高。

In Global Technology Services, revenue declined 5%, which is about a 3-point improvement from last quarter's rate.

在全球技術服務方面，收入下降了 5%，比上一季度的增長率提高了 3 個百分點。

Over the last few quarters, we've talked about an impact of GTS revenue from lower client business volumes.

在過去幾個季度中，我們討論了 GTS 收入因客戶業務量下降而產生的影響。

This quarter, we saw an improved trajectory in project activity and client-based business volumes, including in some of the industry's most affected by the pandemic, such as retail and consumer products.

本季度，我們看到項目活動和基於客戶的業務量的軌蹟有所改善，包括一些受疫情影響最嚴重的行業，例如零售和消費品。

We're encouraged by this trend.

我們對這一趨勢感到鼓舞。

Our year-to-year signings performance reflects a difficult compare.

我們每年的簽約表現反映了一個艱難的比較。

Last year, GTS had strong signings growth driven by large renewals at Anthem and Caixa Bank.

去年，在 Anthem 和 Caixa 銀行的大規模續約推動下，GTS 的簽約量強勁增長。

That said, our midsize deals grew this quarter.

也就是說，我們的中型交易在本季度有所增長。

Enterprises continue to see the long-term value for GTS to design, run and manage the most modern, efficient and reliable technology infrastructures.

企業繼續看到 GTS 在設計、運行和管理最現代、高效和可靠的技術基礎設施方面的長期價值。

We see this in both the renewal rates this quarter, which were consistent with history and in the new logo wins at clients such as Generali and Pitney Bowes.

我們在本季度的續訂率中都看到了這一點，這與歷史一致，新徽標贏得了 Generali 和 Pitney Bowes 等客戶的青睞。

Let me now provide an update on the progress we're making to separate Kyndryl, our Managed Infrastructure Services business.

現在讓我介紹一下我們在分離我們的託管基礎設施服務業務 Kyndryl 方面取得的進展。

Like last quarter, I'll quickly touch on 3 areas: client engagements, actions to optimize the business model, and the execution of the necessary milestones to enable the transaction.

與上個季度一樣，我將快速談到 3 個領域：客戶參與、優化業務模式的行動，以及實現交易所需的里程碑的執行。

From a client perspective, we're continuing to work with our clients to ensure a smooth transition.

從客戶的角度來看，我們將繼續與客戶合作，以確保順利過渡。

We have done extensive client outreach, and over 90% have had a very positive reaction.

我們進行了廣泛的客戶外展，超過 90% 的客戶反應非常積極。

Clients see the long-term value and benefit for Kyndryl to help them build a strong, secure, resilient and adaptive digital capabilities.

客戶看到了 Kyndryl 幫助他們建立強大、安全、有彈性和適應性的數字能力的長期價值和利益。

Regarding the business model, we have taken several actions to position the business for an improved margin, profit and cash generation profile.

關於商業模式，我們已採取多項行動來定位業務，以提高利潤率、利潤和現金生成狀況。

This quarter, we expanded GTS segment gross margin by 60 basis points with contribution from infrastructure services.

本季度，由於基礎設施服務的貢獻，我們將 GTS 部門的毛利率擴大了 60 個基點。

The project activity and client-based business volumes have a higher margin profile as they utilize existing resources.

項目活動和基於客戶的業務量在利用現有資源時具有更高的利潤率。

And so as these volumes recover, we get operating leverage.

因此，隨著這些交易量的恢復，我們獲得了運營槓桿。

Additionally, the contract and productivity actions we have taken are just starting to contribute to gross margin improvement.

此外，我們採取的合同和生產力措施才剛剛開始有助於提高毛利率。

Finally, in addition to establishing a name, headquarters location and expanding the leadership team, we continue to make good progress on executing the necessary financial, legal and regulatory milestones to enable the transaction.

最後，除了建立名稱、總部所在地和擴大領導團隊外，我們還在執行必要的財務、法律和監管里程碑以實現交易方面繼續取得良好進展。

We remain on track to close by the end of the year and still expect the Form 10 to be available in the fall.

我們仍有望在今年年底前關閉，並仍預計 Form 10 將在秋季推出。

Now I'll bring it back up to the IBM level with a quick summary of the quarter and our view of the full year.

現在，我將通過對本季度的快速總結和我們對全年的看法將其恢復到 IBM 級別。

Our revenue trajectory improved in the first quarter, driven by Cloud & Cognitive Software, Global Business Services and strong IBM Z performance late in the product cycle.

我們的收入軌跡在第一季度有所改善，這得益於雲和認知軟件、全球商業服務以及 IBM Z 在產品週期後期的強勁表現。

We continue to improve the fundamentals of our business model with operating leverage enabling a higher level of investment, and we have a strong balance sheet and liquidity position.

我們繼續通過運營槓桿改善業務模式的基本面，實現更高水平的投資，並且我們擁有強大的資產負債表和流動性狀況。

We're off to a good start.

我們有了一個良好的開端。

But as we said, more to do over the course of 2021.

但正如我們所說，2021 年還有更多工作要做。

We're investing in skills, ecosystem and innovation as we execute our hybrid cloud platform and AI strategy.

在執行混合雲平台和人工智能戰略時，我們正在對技能、生態系統和創新進行投資。

We've redesigned our go-to-market model and expect to yield benefits as we move through the year.

我們重新設計了我們的上市模式，並期望在我們度過這一年時產生效益。

We're executing the structural actions initiated in the fourth quarter and are continuing through the first half of this year.

我們正在執行第四季度啟動的結構性行動，並將持續到今年上半年。

Some of this will improve the profit profile of our infrastructure services business, but more of the savings will be reinvested in IBM's remaining business.

其中一些將改善我們基礎設施服務業務的利潤狀況，但更多的節省將重新投資於 IBM 的剩餘業務。

And as I just mentioned, we'll be working to complete the separation of Kyndryl by the end of the year.

正如我剛才提到的，我們將努力在今年年底前完成對 Kyndryl 的分離。

As we look forward, we're focused on revenue growth and cash generation.

展望未來，我們專注於收入增長和現金產生。

For the year, we continue to expect revenue growth at current spot rates and to deliver $11 billion to $12 billion of adjusted free cash flow.

今年，我們繼續預計當前即期匯率的收入增長，並提供 110 億至 120 億美元的調整後自由現金流。

I'll remind you, adjusted free cash flow expectations exclude the $3 billion of cash impacts this year associated with both structural actions initiated in the fourth quarter and the transaction charges for the spin-off.

我會提醒你，調整後的自由現金流預期不包括今年與第四季度發起的結構性行動和分拆交易費用相關的 30 億美元現金影響。

I'll make a couple of comments on revenue and free cash flow for the next quarter.

我將對下一季度的收入和自由現金流發表一些評論。

As you've seen, the U.S. dollar has strengthened over the last 90 days, which impacts us by about 1 point of revenue growth for the year.

如您所見，美元在過去 90 天內走強，這對我們今年的收入增長產生了約 1 個百分點的影響。

Despite this, the average of analyst revenue estimates for the second quarter look reasonable.

儘管如此，分析師對第二季度的平均收入估計看起來還是合理的。

And as I said, we're maintaining our expectations for revenue growth for the year.

正如我所說，我們維持對今年收入增長的預期。

We also had a strong start to free cash flow with good profit and working capital performance.

我們還以良好的利潤和營運資本表現在自由現金流方面取得了良好的開端。

Profit growth will continue to contribute to our cash performance.

利潤增長將繼續為我們的現金業績做出貢獻。

But we also expect over half of the $1 billion full year cash tax headwind I mentioned in January to hit in the second quarter.

但我們也預計，我在 1 月份提到的 10 億美元全年現金稅逆風中，有一半以上將在第二季度出現。

And looking at our book tax rate in the second quarter, we expect the rate to be similar to second quarter last year or a couple of points higher.

從我們第二季度的賬面稅率來看，我們預計該稅率將與去年第二季度相似或高出幾個百分點。

Bringing all of this together, we expect to make incremental progress in the second quarter as we deliver on our full year expectations.

將所有這些結合在一起，我們預計在實現全年預期的同時，第二季度將取得逐步進展。

So with that, let's go to Q&A.

因此，讓我們進行問答。

I'll turn it back over to Patricia.

我會把它還給帕特里夏。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Before we begin the Q&A with Arvind and Jim, I'd like to mention a couple of items.

在我們開始與 Arvind 和 Jim 進行問答之前，我想提幾點。

First, we've included supplemental information at the end of the presentation.

首先，我們在演示文稿的末尾包含了補充信息。

And finally, as always, I'd ask you to refrain from multipart questions.

最後，和往常一樣，我會要求您不要提出多部分問題。

So operator, let's please open it up for questions.

所以運營商，讓我們打開它來提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question will come from Matt Cabral with Credit Suisse.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題將來自瑞士信貸的 Matt Cabral。

Yes.

是的。

Good to see cloud and cognitive return to growth in the quarter.

很高興看到本季度雲計算和認知恢復增長。

Just wondering if you could update us on what you're seeing in terms of the underlying demand environment in software and just where you are in dealing with some of the issues that weighed on the more transactional side of the business in Q4.

只是想知道您是否可以向我們更新您在軟件的潛在需求環境方面所看到的內容，以及您在處理第四季度業務更多事務方面的一些問題時所處的位置。

And then software going forward, just wondering how we should think about the cadence of revenue for the balance of the year from here?

然後是軟件，只是想知道我們應該如何考慮今年餘下時間的收入節奏？

Matt, thanks for the question.

馬特，謝謝你的問題。

Look, I think that the spend environment overall is improving, Matt.

看，我認為整體的消費環境正在改善，馬特。

I think I can say that definitely compared to the fourth quarter.

我想我可以肯定地說，與第四季度相比。

And we are talking in the fourth quarter about various pauses in buying.

我們在第四季度談論購買的各種暫停。

We didn't really see that in the first quarter.

我們在第一季度並沒有真正看到這一點。

Now that said, I do have to acknowledge there are some differences by geography and industry.

話雖如此，我確實必須承認地理和行業存在一些差異。

When you look in the underlying results, you can see the Americas were stronger.

當您查看基本結果時，您可以看到美洲更強。

There are pockets in Asia that depends very much by country, and we can all guess which ones are doing better, which ones are doing worse.

亞洲的一些地區在很大程度上取決於國家/地區，我們都可以猜測哪些地區做得更好，哪些做得更差。

It does depend upon both COVID rates and the pauses that happened then due to business circumstances.

它確實取決於 COVID 率和由於業務情況而發生的暫停。

We do sense a bit of caution in Europe, and you can see that in the numbers.

我們確實感覺到歐洲有些謹慎，你可以從數字中看出這一點。

So you can sort of expect that.

所以你可以期待。

You can also see that there are going to be differences by industry.

您還可以看到，行業會有所不同。

Those most impacted are the obvious ones, travel, tourism and all others that then get touched by those.

受影響最大的是那些顯而易見的，旅行，旅遊業和所有其他受到這些影響的人。

So that's the color on what's happening.

這就是正在發生的事情的顏色。

However, as I've reiterated before, we do see our clients accelerate their digital transformation.

然而，正如我之前重申的那樣，我們確實看到我們的客戶加速了他們的數字化轉型。

And as they accelerate their digital transformation, our hybrid cloud thesis comes to play very strongly.

隨著他們加速數字化轉型，我們的混合雲理論發揮著非常重要的作用。

Multi-cloud, which is multiple public clouds as well as private come into play, all the reasons that I mentioned around sovereignty and choice come into play, and you can see that then in our Red Hat results.

多雲，即多個公有云和私有云開始發揮作用，我提到的關於主權和選擇的所有原因都在發揮作用，你可以在我們的紅帽結果中看到這一點。

So then explicitly addressing the cloud and cognitive software, we expect Red Hat to maintain itself in the mid- to high teens.

因此，在明確解決雲和認知軟件問題之後，我們希望紅帽能夠在中高年級保持自我。

That will show through in the cloud and data platform results being strong.

這將通過雲和數據平台結果顯示出來。

We expect our applications, our AI applications, to remain in the single digits of growth, and we can see that.

我們預計我們的應用程序、我們的人工智能應用程序將保持個位數的增長，我們可以看到這一點。

We talked about the strong demand for security in there.

我們談到了那裡對安全的強烈需求。

I do expect to see continued declines in our TPP software, but it doesn't really worry us.

我確實希望看到我們的 TPP 軟件繼續下降，但這並不真正讓我們擔心。

I mean those are things where if I look at a 2- or 3-year CAGR, we expect to see mid- to high single-digit declines.

我的意思是，如果我看一下 2 年或 3 年的複合年增長率，我們預計會出現中高個位數的下降。

But in any given period, it can be a little bit lumpy, and we see that there.

但在任何給定的時期，它都可能有點起伏，我們在那裡看到。

And so we expect this to carry on through this year.

因此，我們預計這將持續到今年。

Second quarter I would be somewhat optimistic, but we've got to go deliver it, Matt.

第二季度我會有點樂觀，但我們必須交付它，馬特。

Our next question will come from Katy Huberty with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根士丹利的 Katy Huberty。

Arvind, you talked about increased investments in sales resources, technical skills, R&D.

Arvind，您談到增加對銷售資源、技術技能和研發的投資。

We saw M&A pick up this quarter.

我們看到本季度併購活動有所回升。

And all of this is meant to drive that mid-single-digit sustainable revenue growth that you've talked about, which I believe you've said that you can achieve next year.

所有這一切都是為了推動你所說的中個位數的可持續收入增長，我相信你已經說過你可以在明年實現這一目標。

Can you just help us at a high level bridge how you get to the 4% to 5% revenue growth?

您能否幫助我們在高水平上架起橋樑，如何實現 4% 到 5% 的收入增長？

What are the primary sources of growth acceleration at the segment level?

細分市場增長加速的主要來源是什麼？

How much M&A contribution should we be contemplating?

我們應該考慮多少併購貢獻？

And also in next year's growth rate, are you baking in the revenue benefit that you'll see as some of the internal revenue becomes reported as external post the spin?

而且在明年的增長率中，您是否正在考慮您將看到的收入收益，因為一些內部收入在旋轉後報告為外部收入？

Thanks, Katy.

謝謝，凱蒂。

It's pretty clear.

這很清楚。

You're a good student of what we say and publish.

你是我們所說和發表的內容的好學生。

So let me try to unpack your question.

所以讓我試著解開你的問題。

Let me first talk about how do all these investments result in mid-single-digit revenue growth.

首先讓我談談所有這些投資如何導致中個位數的收入增長。

So if you look at it, we keep saying Red Hat at mid- to high teens, leading to overall software in the mid-single digits.

因此，如果您看一下，我們會一直說 Red Hat 處於中高水平，導致整體軟件處於中個位數。

That will include the TPP mild decline, but the overall will be mid-single digit.

這將包括 TPP 溫和下降，但總體將是中個位數。

That could include, I'll call it, any business-as-usual acquisitions.

這可能包括，我稱之為，任何一切照舊的收購。

But the current market value, I don't see acquisitions adding a significant amount to IBM's top line.

但就目前的市場價值而言，我認為收購不會為 IBM 的收入增加大量資金。

You can do the math with what we can put in, it will be well less than a point overall.

您可以用我們可以輸入的內容進行數學計算，總體而言將遠少於一個點。

We can just -- I think we can say that.

我們可以——我想我們可以這麼說。

Then if I look at our go-to-market investments, whether that's technical resources, garages, client success managers or segmentation, that is not yet really paying up.

然後，如果我看看我們的市場投資，無論是技術資源、車庫、客戶成功經理還是細分，這還沒有真正得到回報。

You see some early signals in the 200 clients doing these things.

您會在 200 個客戶做這些事情中看到一些早期信號。

I do expect that, that can contribute a couple of points, maybe a bit more for next year.

我確實希望，這可以貢獻幾分，明年可能會更多。

But you'll see that inside our software and our GBS numbers.

但是您會在我們的軟件和 GBS 號碼中看到這一點。

It's not additive to those.

它不是那些的添加劑。

We're also investing about $1 billion in our ecosystem.

我們還在我們的生態系統中投資了大約 10 億美元。

That will contribute to improving GBS' growth rate to beyond the prepandemic rate.

這將有助於將 GBS 的增長率提高到超過大流行前的水平。

So that then takes me to GBS.

所以這把我帶到了GBS。

Will this year come back to the pre-pandemic growth rates of 2% to 4%?

今年會恢復到大流行前2％至4％的增長率嗎？

But the mixture of the acquisitions and the go-to-market changes, so take them higher than that by the end of the year into next year.

但是收購和進入市場的變化混合在一起，所以到明年年底之前把它們提高到更高的水平。

Now you asked also about will internal revenue contribute to this?

現在您還問到內部收入是否會對此做出貢獻？

Okay, the internal revenue is a onetime change.

好的，內部收入是一次性的。

So we have talked about sustainable mid-single-digit revenue growth, not just for 1 year.

因此，我們談到了可持續的中個位數收入增長，而不僅僅是一年。

So while it might help next year, we are not counting on that to be a contributor because that's only once.

因此，雖然它明年可能會有所幫助，但我們並不指望它成為貢獻者，因為那隻是一次。

It's not every year.

這不是每年。

So hopefully, Red Hat contributing together with acquisitions, the software in the mid-single digits.

因此，希望紅帽與收購一起貢獻中個位數的軟件。

GBS, with all the changes we're describing, perhaps better than mid-single digit.

GBS，我們描述的所有變化，可能比中個位數更好。

Systems, if I take a 2- to 3-year view, kind of flattish.

系統，如果我從 2 到 3 年的角度來看，有點平淡。

But in any given year, it might increase or decrease, but not by a whole lot.

但在任何一年，它可能會增加或減少，但不會大幅增加。

It doesn't impact the top line a lot.

它不會對頂線產生太大影響。

And that's how sort of we get to the mid-single digits sustainably.

這就是我們可持續地達到中個位數的方式。

So you might get a 1-year benefit from the -- from internal going to external, but not permanent.

因此，您可能會從內部到外部獲得 1 年的收益，但不是永久性的。

So that's why I don't really count on that.

所以這就是為什麼我真的不指望它。

Hopefully, that gives you an answer to your different parts of the question.

希望這可以為您回答問題的不同部分。

And as we complete the Form 10 process, which we're well on our way right now, Katy, I would tell you, one, as you know quite well, we will be transparent about the strategic commercial relationship we have between IBM and Kyndryl going forward, and we will disclose what those relationships are and how we will treat that revenue.

當我們完成 Form 10 流程時，我們現在正在順利進行中，Katy，我會告訴你，一個，你很清楚，我們將對 IBM 和 Kyndryl 之間的戰略商業關係保持透明展望未來，我們將披露這些關係是什麼以及我們將如何處理這些收入。

But more work to be done, and we will come back to you at the appropriate time.

但還有更多工作要做，我們會在適當的時候回复您。

Next, we will hear from Toni Sacconaghi with Bernstein.

接下來，我們將聽到托尼·薩科納吉和伯恩斯坦的談話。

Yes.

是的。

I guess this is a clarification or maybe 2 clarifications.

我想這是一個澄清或兩個澄清。

I'm wondering if you can just comment, I think you said that you think consensus revenue estimates for Q2 are reasonable.

我想知道您是否可以發表評論，我想您說過您認為第二季度的共識收入估計是合理的。

They're up about $500 million sequentially from Q1.

他們比第一季度增加了約 5 億美元。

If I look back at normal seasonality, typically, revenue is up about $1 billion, and it sounds like IT spend is improving.

如果我回顧正常的季節性，通常情況下，收入會增加約 10 億美元，聽起來 IT 支出正在改善。

So if anything, one would expect better-than-normal seasonality.

因此，如果有的話，人們會期待比正常情況更好的季節性。

So I'm wondering whether you're being conservative or there were some onetime things that happened in Q1, but why wouldn't you underwrite normal or better than normal seasonality, which I have as about a $1 billion sequential increase in revenues?

所以我想知道你是保守還是第一季度發生了一些一次性的事情，但你為什麼不承保正常或比正常的季節性更好，我有大約 10 億美元的連續收入增長？

And then separately, Arvind, could you just clarify, when you talk about IBM as a AI company, what role does Watson play in that?

然後，Arvind，您能否澄清一下，當您談到 IBM 作為一家 AI 公司時，Watson 在其中扮演什麼角色？

I don't think that name was really mentioned on the call.

我認為電話中沒有真正提到這個名字。

There's speculation about Watson Health.

有關於 Watson Health 的猜測。

Maybe you can give us an update on how Watson fits into IBM as an AI company and specifically, what's happening with Watson Health and Watson Financial?

也許您可以向我們介紹一下 Watson 如何融入 IBM 作為一家 AI 公司，具體來說，Watson Health 和 Watson Financial 的情況如何？

Okay, Toni.

好的，托尼。

Thank you for your question, and I'll handle the first part, provide some clarity around our forward-looking guidance and then turn it over to Arvind for your second part of the question.

感謝您提出問題，我將處理第一部分，圍繞我們的前瞻性指導提供一些清晰的說明，然後將其交給 Arvind 來回答您的第二部分問題。

But as we said in prepared remarks, similar to 90 days ago, in fact, we're even more confident in the position that we put in place with regards to our 2 most important measures: one, revenue growth, and second, adjusted free cash flow, which is going to provide the fuel for the investments needed for us to capture that hybrid cloud $1 trillion TAM.

但正如我們在準備好的評論中所說，與 90 天前類似，事實上，我們對我們在兩個最重要的措施方面所採取的立場更有信心：一是收入增長，二是調整後的自由現金流，這將為我們獲取混合雲 1 萬億美元 TAM 所需的投資提供燃料。

Now we reiterated that we're going to grow revenue overall for the year, and that is despite currency volatility, again, with the U.S. dollar appreciating 90 days ago.

現在我們重申，我們將在今年整體收入增長，儘管貨幣波動，美元在 90 天前升值。

We lost about 1 point of revenue for the year.

我們今年損失了大約 1 個百分點的收入。

And we lost about 1 point of revenue in the second quarter.

我們在第二季度損失了大約 1 個百分點的收入。

So now going to your math with regards to our historical quarter-to-quarter.

因此，現在就我們的歷史季度季度來計算您的數學。

Very close.

很接近。

I mean the math I got in my head is somewhere around $900 million, $950 million, give or take, quarter-to-quarter.

我的意思是，我腦海中的數學是大約 9 億美元，9.5 億美元，每季度給予或索取。

We see normal historical attainment across 1Q to 2Q in both our software base of business.

我們看到我們兩個軟件業務基礎在 1Q 到 2Q 的正常歷史成就。

As Arvind said, we're feeling even more confident given the rebound here in the first quarter.

正如 Arvind 所說，鑑於第一季度的反彈，我們感到更加自信。

And also in both of our services-based businesses, we see normal historical attainment to that roughly $900 million to $950 million.

同樣在我們基於服務的業務中，我們看到正常的歷史收益約為 9 億至 9.5 億美元。

Now given our first quarter performance of driving a very strong mainframe cycle, growing 49% in the first quarter and the seventh quarter of the program, which is unheard of, coming off of 60% growth last year, Arvind and I both believe it's very prudent for us as we go forward with our guidance to not count on continued acceleration of our mainframe.

現在考慮到我們第一季度推動大型機週期非常強勁的表現，第一季度和第七季度增長了 49%，這是聞所未聞的，去年增長了 60%，Arvind 和我都認為這是非常對我們來說是謹慎的，因為我們繼續指導我們不要指望繼續加速我們的大型機。

We're very pleased with the performance.

我們對錶現非常滿意。

We're pleased with the value proposition.

我們對價值主張感到滿意。

But I would say, against that $900 million to $950 million, I would take a couple of hundred million off of that number just based on first quarter's very strong performance in Mainframe and that not concluding going forward.

但我想說，相對於 9 億到 9.5 億美元，僅基於第一季度在大型機中非常強勁的表現，我會從這個數字中減少幾億美元，而且這還沒有結束。

So let me turn it over to Arvind for the second part.

所以讓我把它交給 Arvind 第二部分。

Thanks.

謝謝。

So Toni, Watson remains critically important to us.

所以托尼，沃森對我們來說仍然至關重要。

To be absolutely clear, Watson is the brand product name for our AI capabilities.

絕對清楚，Watson 是我們 AI 功能的品牌產品名稱。

You'll see it in the market as Watson conversational agent.

您會在市場上看到它作為 Watson 會話代理。

But you'll also see it, as for example, our security products with Watson.

但是您也會看到它，例如我們的 Watson 安全產品。

It is embedded inside our Cloud Pak for data and called out as Watson.

它嵌入在我們的 Cloud Pak 中以存儲數據，並被稱為 Watson。

Let me give you a quick example of where we're seeing a huge amount of success.

讓我給你一個簡單的例子，說明我們在哪些方面取得了巨大的成功。

So let me take one of the large entities doing vaccine administration in the United States.

因此，讓我以在美國進行疫苗管理的大型實體之一為例。

When they were -- when they realized in December they could do this, they suddenly began to realize that they could get tens of millions of calls every quarter.

當他們在 12 月意識到他們可以做到這一點時，他們突然開始意識到每個季度他們可以接到數千萬個電話。

And then how will they handle them?

然後他們將如何處理它們？

Staff up tens of thousands of people or perhaps deploy Watson.

為數以萬計的人配備人員，或者部署 Watson。

And so far, at one of these places, and we have deployed it a lot more than one, 5 million calls handled in the quarter with over 70% handled by Watson.

到目前為止，在其中一個地方，我們已經部署了超過一個，本季度處理了 500 萬個電話，其中超過 70% 由 Watson 處理。

You now think about extrapolating this over the year, that would make a 20 million in 4 quarters.

您現在考慮在一年中推斷這一點，這將在 4 個季度內賺到 2000 萬。

And with the confidence building up on one program, you could imagine it going to others.

隨著對一個項目的信心建立，你可以想像它會影響到其他項目。

This is a lot more straightforward to do and where I think AI excels in handling issues in both improving client satisfaction because you get an instantaneous answer but also in taking cost out, and those are rare in our industry where you get both together.

這做起來要簡單得多，而且我認為人工智能在處理問題方面表現出色，因為您可以立即獲得答案，而且還可以降低成本，而這在我們行業中很少見，因為您可以將兩者結合在一起。

We see lots and lots of opportunities here.

我們在這裡看到了很多很多的機會。

We also see a lot of Watson being embedded on how to automate data cleansing, on how to do AI operations, on dramatically improving the resilience of people's IT infrastructure.

我們還看到很多 Watson 被嵌入到如何自動化數據清理、如何進行 AI 操作以及顯著提高人們 IT 基礎架構的彈性方面。

So turning -- to net it out, Watson remains really important.

所以轉身——為了解決這個問題，沃森仍然非常重要。

AI is in the early part of its journey.

人工智能正處於其旅程的早期階段。

Not us.

不是我們。

Consultants have estimated $16 trillion of global productivity over the decade, maybe 5% of our way into that journey.

顧問們估計，在過去十年中，全球生產力將達到 16 萬億美元，這可能是我們進入這一旅程的 5%。

Watson will be the tool that unlocks that for our clients, albeit in areas like IT, in data, in conversation, in call handling and in all these areas where we excel and we have a large footprint with our clients.

Watson 將成為為我們的客戶解鎖這一點的工具，儘管在 IT、數據、對話、呼叫處理等領域以及我們擅長的所有這些領域，我們在客戶中擁有大量足跡。

Our next question comes from Wamsi Mohan with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Wamsi Mohan。

Yes.

是的。

Arvind, you said the go-to-market changes have not yet had an impact.

Arvind，你說進入市場的變化尚未產生影響。

Should we expect to see some benefit in the second half of 2021?

我們是否應該期望在 2021 年下半年看到一些好處？

And if you could maybe address what the cadence of the benefit would be across the business segments, where would pay out first and later, that would be helpful.

而且，如果您可以解決跨業務部門的收益節奏，以及首先支付和稍後支付的地方，那將是有幫助的。

And separately, maybe you can just help us think through what's going on with bookings and backlog.

另外，也許您可以幫助我們思考一下預訂和積壓的情況。

The signings numbers were quite weak relative to the confidence you're expressing on consulting growth.

相對於您對諮詢增長所表達的信心而言，簽約人數相當微弱。

Is there a pause given the upcoming spin?

考慮到即將到來的旋轉，是否有暫停？

Or maybe any -- maybe if you could just dig down into that a little bit, that would be great.

或者也許任何——也許如果你能深入研究一下，那就太好了。

Thanks, Wamsi.

謝謝，萬西。

Look, go-to-market changes, Wamsi, always have, I'll call it, a bit of a hysteresis loop.

看，進入市場的變化，Wamsi，總是有，我稱之為，有點滯後循環。

They take time to take impact.

他們需要時間來產生影響。

We rolled them out in the beginning of January, but then you have to -- there's a human part to this.

我們在 1 月初推出了它們，但是你必須這樣做——這其中涉及到人為因素。

You have to assign people to accounts.

您必須將人員分配給帳戶。

There is some level of learning.

有一定程度的學習。

There's some level of changes.

有一定程度的變化。

And all of that just takes months to flow through.

而這一切只需要幾個月的時間就可以完成。

I wish I could do it quicker, but I got to acknowledge it takes months.

我希望我能做得更快，但我承認這需要幾個月的時間。

That's why you hear me say it will take time for us to see the benefit.

這就是為什麼你聽到我說我們需要時間才能看到好處。

Where will we see the benefit?

我們將在哪裡看到好處？

We would expect to see improved productivity for our sales teams that cover our large accounts.

我們希望看到覆蓋我們大客戶的銷售團隊的生產力得到提高。

That will result in better software growth and in better GBS growth.

這將導致更好的軟件增長和更好的 GBS 增長。

I do expect to see that in the second half.

我確實希望在下半年看到這一點。

I expect to see even more of it going into 2022.

我預計到 2022 年會看到更多。

As we're also investing in our -- what we're calling our ecosystem, to be clear, that is investments, whether it's in Schlumberger or Siemens or Palantir, just to name some from this last quarter.

因為我們也在投資我們的生態系統，明確地說，這就是投資，無論是在斯倫貝謝、西門子還是 Palantir，僅舉上一季度的一些例子。

But before that, relationships we had with Box and Slack and Adobe and Salesforce and SAP, you expect to see all of those play out in the improved growth, both in software and in GBS.

但在此之前，我們與 Box、Slack、Adobe、Salesforce 和 SAP 的關係，你希望看到所有這些都在軟件和 GBS 的增長中發揮作用。

So you kind of sort of unpack those, and you see that.

所以你有點解開那些，你看到了。

Now when I talk about why would I see more productivity in our top accounts, while the 200 Garage engagements that I mentioned, you expect that all of those will build pipeline oftentimes we might never have had in the past.

現在，當我談到為什麼我會在我們的頂級客戶中看到更高的生產力，而我提到的 200 個車庫參與時，你期望所有這些都將建立我們過去可能從未有過的管道。

So that is why you begin to see improved yield in the top accounts.

這就是為什麼您開始看到頂級賬戶的收益有所提高。

So I expect to see some definite.

所以我希望看到一些明確的。

You'll see it in our numbers in the second half and then more going into next year.

你會在下半年看到我們的數據，然後到明年更多。

For the second part of the question, I'll hand it to Jim to talk a little bit about signings.

對於問題的第二部分，我將把它交給 Jim 來談談關於簽約的一些事情。

Jim?

吉姆?

Okay.

好的。

Thanks, Wamsi, for the question.

謝謝，Wamsi，這個問題。

Let me unpack some of this for you.

讓我為你解開一些。

First of all, printed numbers, signings down 27% to your point, entirely driven by our large deal renewal comparison the last first quarter in GTS.

首先，印刷數據，簽約人數下降了 27%，這完全是由我們在 GTS 上一季度的大筆續約比較推動的。

If you remember, we signed 2 massive deals last year with Anthem and Caixa well in excess of $1 billion a piece in each.

如果你還記得的話，我們去年與 Anthem 和 Caixa 簽署了兩筆巨額交易，每筆交易金額超過 10 億美元。

But I think this goes to the testament that I've talked about many times on this call, and that is all signings are not created equal.

但我認為這證明了我在這次電話會議上多次談到的證明，那就是所有簽約都不是平等的。

The duration, the mix, the offering, the content all impact how signings translate into backlog and how backlog then translates into revenue realization overall.

持續時間、組合、產品、內容都會影響簽約如何轉化為積壓，以及積壓如何轉化為整體收入實現。

So let's talk a little bit about the GTS portfolio because that's where it really centers around here in the quarter.

因此，讓我們稍微談談 GTS 產品組合，因為這是本季度它真正集中的地方。

When you look at GTS, I think there's a couple of different dynamics playing out.

當您查看 GTS 時，我認為有幾種不同的動態正在上演。

First, we -- yes, greater than $100 million deals.

首先，我們——是的，超過 1 億美元的交易。

We were down substantially compared to last year just off of that very tough compare.

與去年相比，我們在非常艱難的比較之後大幅下降。

And I'll remind you, we grew GTS signings north of 40% last year.

我會提醒你，去年我們的 GTS 簽約人數增長了 40% 以上。

So second, though, is our midsized deals, read that kind of $10 million to $100 million, we were up high teens.

不過，第二個是我們的中型交易，讀起來是 1000 萬到 1 億美元，我們是十幾歲的孩子。

And embedded in that, we also had another nice quarter of new logos, which means we are out there winning new business, capturing new client value even in light of the announced separation with Kyndryl.

嵌入其中，我們還擁有另一個不錯的季度新徽標，這意味著即使在宣布與 Kyndryl 分離的情況下，我們也正在贏得新業務，捕捉新的客戶價值。

The second component at the heart of your question, I think, is are we losing business?

我認為，您問題的第二個核心部分是我們正在失去業務嗎？

Or is business getting paused?

還是業務暫停？

I would think, one, with the new logo wins and second, we have consistent high renewal rates in this business.

我認為，第一，新徽標獲勝，第二，我們在這項業務中擁有始終如一的高更新率。

This business is very sticky from a Managed Infrastructure Services perspective.

從託管基礎架構服務的角度來看，這項業務非常具有粘性。

And we have high 90-plus percent renewal rates, and we have not seen that change since the announcement.

而且我們的續訂率高達 90% 以上，自宣布以來我們還沒有看到這種變化。

Now with that said, are there pipeline that has built up that naturally some clients are pausing so they wait to see what our Form 10 is?

話雖如此，是否已經建立了一些客戶自然會暫停的管道，以便他們等著看我們的表格 10 是什麼？

Yes.

是的。

And I don't think we expected anything different overall.

而且我認為我們總體上沒有任何不同的預期。

But when you take all that together, our backlog position overall in GTS and our backlog runout, we actually see continued sequential improvement, nice improvement off a fourth quarter, 3 points better.

但是當你把所有這些加在一起時，我們在 GTS 中的整體積壓位置和我們的積壓運行情況，我們實際上看到了持續的連續改進，比第四季度有了很好的改進，提高了 3 個百分點。

And we see that continuing modestly here from 1Q to 2Q, and that's a reflection of those new logos that are going to start ramping up.

我們看到從 1Q 到 2Q 持續適度，這反映了那些將開始增加的新徽標。

And that's a reflection of our midsized deals, which, by the way, has changed the duration in that part of the portfolio by 1 month overall, which is impacting the revenue realization.

這反映了我們的中型交易，順便說一下，這部分投資組合的持續時間總體上改變了 1 個月，這影響了收入的實現。

So we still feel very, very good and very comfortable.

所以我們還是覺得非常非常好，非常舒服。

We've got a very good pipeline in front of us, and we see better revenue realization.

我們面前有一條非常好的管道，我們看到了更好的收入實現。

Next, you will hear from Amit Daryanani with Evercore.

接下來，您將聽到來自 Evercore 的 Amit Daryanani 的消息。

I guess I was hoping if you could touch a little bit more on the GBS performance.

我想我希望你能多談談 GBS 的表現。

And we saw a nice improvement, I think.

我認為，我們看到了很好的改進。

From what we saw in December quarter, it was still down, but a nice 4 basis points improvement nonetheless.

從我們在 12 月季度看到的情況來看，它仍然在下降，但仍然有 4 個基點的不錯改善。

And consulting, I think it was notable that we started to see growth over there.

和諮詢，我認為值得注意的是，我們開始看到那裡的增長。

So I was hoping you could just help us understand if you should think about consulting growth as a leading indicator to what GBS can do.

因此，我希望您能幫助我們了解您是否應該將諮詢增長視為 GBS 可以做什麼的領先指標。

And would we expect this to be positive growth for GBS in calendar '21?

我們是否會期望這會在 21 年日曆中為 GBS 帶來正增長？

And then also, have you clarified this for me, as you go through the process of splitting up these long-term contracts between IBM and NewCo, why would customers agree to do this without rebidding the contract or getting a price concession from either IBM or NewCo?

然後，您是否為我澄清了這一點，當您經歷拆分 IBM 和 NewCo 之間這些長期合同的過程時，為什麼客戶會同意這樣做而不重新投標合同或從 IBM 或 NewCo 獲得價格優惠？新公司？

Okay, Amit, this is Jim.

好的，阿米特，這是吉姆。

Let me take your question, and I appreciate the point.

讓我回答你的問題，我很欣賞這一點。

We are pretty pleased with the trajectory improvement overall with regards to our GBS business.

我們對 GBS 業務的整體軌跡改進感到非常滿意。

We improved by 4 points quarter-to-quarter.

我們按季提高了 4 個百分點。

And we talked about 90 days ago as we went through the pandemic and Arvind reiterated it here on the call tonight, what we have seen is our clients acceleration in their digital transformations and their journeys to cloud, and we expected to capitalize on that as we move forward.

90 天前，我們在經歷大流行時談到了這一點，Arvind 在今晚的電話會議上重申了這一點，我們所看到的是我們的客戶加速了他們的數字化轉型和他們的雲之旅，我們希望能夠利用這一點，因為我們前進。

So if you take a step back and just look at our first quarter performance, and then I'll translate that into what we see with our GBS business going forward.

因此，如果您退後一步，看看我們第一季度的業績，然後我會將其轉化為我們對 GBS 業務未來的看法。

Our first quarter performance really reflects our level and the confidence in the value of our portfolio, our cloud book of business in GBS doubled its growth rate to 28% here in the first quarter.

我們第一季度的業績真正反映了我們的水平和對我們投資組合價值的信心，我們在 GBS 的雲業務簿在第一季度的增長率翻了一番，達到 28%。

We have over a $6 billion book of business in cloud and GBS alone, leveraging our strength in application modernization and our cloud transformational services built on top of our Red Hat hybrid cloud platform.

僅在雲和 GBS 方面，我們就擁有超過 60 億美元的業務賬簿，充分利用了我們在應用程序現代化方面的優勢以及基於紅帽混合雲平台構建的雲轉型服務。

Our Red Hat engagements, we increased 150 to let alone just in the first quarter overall.

我們的紅帽業務，我們增加了 150 次，更不用說第一季度整體了。

And our cloud book of business is up double digits across all 3 subsectors.

我們的雲業務在所有 3 個子行業都增長了兩位數。

Now to your point about consulting, very pleased of that leading indicator.

現在談談您對諮詢的看法，對該領先指標非常滿意。

We return back to growth.

我們回歸增長。

And we've been talking about the last handful of quarters how the whole journey to cloud with our value proposition about advice, move, build and manage that the front end of that equation as clients go through around application modernization really shows up in our consulting base of business and then translates into our application management business overall and our global processing services business overall, which we saw very nice growth as clients are reimagining how they run their companies, and we're capitalizing on what we call intelligent workflows.

在過去幾個季度中，我們一直在談論整個雲之旅如何通過我們關於建議、遷移、構建和管理的價值主張，當客戶圍繞應用程序現代化進行時，該等式的前端如何真正體現在我們的諮詢中業務基礎，然後轉化為我們整體的應用程序管理業務和我們的全球處理服務業務，我們看到了非常好的增長，因為客戶正在重新構想他們經營公司的方式，我們正在利用我們所謂的智能工作流程。

So we definitely believe that consulting is a leading indicator.

所以我們絕對相信諮詢是一個領先的指標。

Now going forward, we are very confident in getting back in second quarter to our prepandemic levels of growth.

現在展望未來，我們非常有信心在第二季度恢復到大流行前的增長水平。

By the way, our backlog run out in the next 90 days already shows that.

順便說一句，我們在接下來的 90 天內用完的積壓工作已經表明了這一點。

But let me give you a little bit of some quantitative components behind why we're so confident.

但是讓我給你一些關於我們為什麼如此自信背後的一些量化因素。

Number one, our book-to-bill over the last 12 months is well north of 1, led by consulting, to your point, which we believe is the front end of that curve that will lend itself into GPS and into AMS.

第一，在過去 12 個月中，我們的訂單到賬單遠在 1 以北，由諮詢公司主導，我們認為這是該曲線的前端，將有助於 GPS 和 AMS。

Second, we continue to have very good momentum in small and midsized deals that you know has immediate revenue realization in the near term, which has led, third, to our overall backlog level of growth.

其次，我們在中小型交易中繼續保持非常好的勢頭，您知道這些交易在短期內可以立即實現收入，第三，這導致我們的整體積壓水平增長。

Strong growth in GBS, consulting and GPS and improving trend in our AMS business going forward.

GBS、諮詢和 GPS 的強勁增長以及我們 AMS 業務未來的改善趨勢。

And then fourth, we talked about upfront we closed on 5 acquisitions here in the last handful of months.

然後第四，我們談到了在過去幾個月裡我們在這裡完成了 5 次收購。

We are very focused on ramping, scaling and driving that business.

我們非常專注於提升、擴展和推動該業務。

So we feel comfortable getting back to prepandemic growth here in second quarter.

因此，我們對在第二季度恢復大流行前的增長感到很自在。

We feel very confident in the full year, GBS delivering growth.

我們對全年 GBS 實現增長充滿信心。

And most importantly is that exit velocity in 2021 heading into 2022.

最重要的是 2021 年的退出速度進入 2022 年。

GBS is an integral part of that mid-single-digit growth objective that Arvind talked about.

GBS 是 Arvind 談到的中個位數增長目標不可或缺的一部分。

Our next question comes from Tien-Tsin Huang with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Tien-Tsin Huang。

Okay.

好的。

Just maybe a stupid question or clarification.

可能只是一個愚蠢的問題或澄清。

Just the strength in system Z at this point in the cycle.

只是循環中此時系統 Z 的強度。

What -- can you maybe go through that a little again?

什麼——你能再經歷一次嗎？

What's changed?

有什麼改變？

What's different?

有什麼不同？

Is it a different buying or selling motion?

這是不同的買入或賣出動作嗎？

Just trying to understand that a little bit better.

只是想更好地理解這一點。

And then just on the ecosystem strategy, Arvind, opening new areas of growth.

然後就生態系統戰略而言，Arvind 開闢了新的增長領域。

Is there a pipeline for more deals like a Palantir and others?

是否有更多交易的渠道，比如 Palantir 和其他？

I'm just curious where the effort is there today and how close you are to adding more partners there?

我只是好奇今天的努力在哪裡，你離在那裡增加更多的合作夥伴有多近？

Or if that's more of a midterm expectation for us to manage or watch for?

或者，如果這更像是我們需要管理或關注的中期期望？

Okay.

好的。

Thanks, Tien-Tsin.

謝謝，天真。

I'll handle the IBM Z discussion and then turn it over to Arvind for the ecosystem.

我將處理有關 IBM Z 的討論，然後將其交給 Arvind 負責生態系統。

We're very pleased.

我們非常高興。

Seven quarters into a Z cycle, growing 49% on a 60-plus percent growth here in the first quarter of last year, a very strong comparison overall and really kind of breaks the cycle from what we've typically seen.

Z 週期的七個季度，在去年第一季度增長 60% 以上的基礎上增長了 49%，這是一個非常強烈的總體比較，並且確實打破了我們通常看到的周期。

But we saw growth.

但我們看到了增長。

When you look at it: one, are we capitalizing on the overall encouraging trend from a macroeconomic perspective?

當你看它時：一，我們是否從宏觀經濟的角度利用了整體令人鼓舞的趨勢？

Yes.

是的。

We're also capitalizing on robust trading-based volumes in our traditional FSS space industry.

我們還利用傳統 FSS 太空行業中基於交易的強勁交易量。

So capacity needs are driving some parts of our industry consumption.

因此，產能需求正在推動我們行業消費的某些部分。

But I'll tell you, we're also seeing changing regulatory requirements, clients needing backup, and recovery is very essential right now.

但我會告訴你，我們也看到了不斷變化的監管要求，客戶需要備份，現在恢復非常重要。

We saw that play out in the first quarter.

我們在第一季度看到了這種情況。

And then beyond the FSS industry, we start seeing some good adoption.

然後在 FSS 行業之外，我們開始看到一些很好的採用。

And we talked about this in prior calls, where we see elongated cycles just given some industries are more impacted by the pandemic, but we see now our value proposition of cloud-native applications where we have Red Hat Enterprise Linux, Red Hat OpenShift that runs on our mainframe platform and also pervasive encryption.

我們在之前的電話會議中談到了這一點，我們看到一些行業受到大流行的影響更大，但我們現在看到了我們的雲原生應用程序的價值主張，我們有紅帽企業 Linux、紅帽 OpenShift 運行在我們的大型機平台上以及普遍加密。

Security is at the top of every CIO and CTO's priority list and the mainframe by definition is the most secure, most scalable, most reliable platform out there.

安全性是每個 CIO 和 CTO 的首要任務，而大型機從定義上來說是最安全、最可擴展、最可靠的平台。

And I think you're seeing all of that play out.

我認為你已經看到了所有這些。

Yes.

是的。

On your second part of your question, Tien-Tsin, on ecosystem, yes, we have a long pipeline.

關於你問題的第二部分，Tien-Tsin，關於生態系統，是的，我們有很長的管道。

I expect this number to go into the high 10s, maybe not 100, but definitely into very many more.

我預計這個數字會達到 10 的最高水平，也許不是 100，但肯定會達到更多。

But let me caution though, when you say midterm, it's not multiple years.

但讓我提醒一下，當你說中期時，這不是多年。

Each of these takes about 6 months to become real and then another few months to become into real revenue.

這些中的每一個都需要大約 6 個月才能變成現實，然後再過幾個月才能變成真正的收入。

So I would not expect that new ones we announced now will have an impact much before the end of the year.

所以我不認為我們現在宣布的新產品會在今年年底之前產生很大的影響。

However, they will have a big impact at the very end of this year and into next year.

但是，它們將在今年年底和明年產生重大影響。

So I'll sort of position it like that.

所以我會這樣定位它。

But expect that we should be announcing these at a regular cadence.

但是希望我們應該定期宣布這些。

Our next question comes from David Grossman with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 David Grossman。

So you've made some high-level but very consistent comments about sustaining the dividend as we approach the spin.

因此，當我們接近旋轉時，您就維持股息發表了一些高水平但非常一致的評論。

And I think most of us will all understand the reasons for that.

我想我們大多數人都會明白其中的原因。

That said, in the past, there have been some criticisms that the company has prioritized returns to shareholders at the expense of growth.

也就是說，過去曾有人批評該公司以犧牲增長為代價優先考慮股東回報。

And I know you've talked a lot about reinvestment, cost savings among several other actions.

我知道你已經談了很多關於再投資、成本節約以及其他一些行動的問題。

However, in software, cloud and services, you're going out getting some pretty big companies that really don't return capital at your rate.

然而，在軟件、雲計算和服務領域，你會找到一些真正不會按照你的速度返還資本的大公司。

So how do you want us to reconcile that dynamic as you look to reaccelerate and sustain growth in 2022 and beyond?

那麼，當您希望在 2022 年及以後重新加速和維持增長時，您希望我們如何調和這種動態？

So David, this is Jim.

大衛，這是吉姆。

Thank you for your question.

謝謝你的問題。

Let me -- I'm not going to talk to other competitors, but I would go check some of those about how much share buyback that they're all doing overall.

讓我 - 我不打算與其他競爭對手交談，但我會檢查其中一些人，了解他們總體上進行了多少股票回購。

But with that said, I'm only going to talk about IBM.

但話雖如此，我只想談談 IBM。

And we feel very confident in our capital allocation process and our disciplined financial management system overall.

我們對我們的資本分配過程和整體紀律嚴明的財務管理系統充滿信心。

Let me remind you 90 days ago how we entered the year.

讓我提醒你 90 天前我們是如何進入這一年的。

We entered the year, I think I talked about the sources and uses of our cash.

我們進入這一年，我想我談到了我們現金的來源和用途。

We think entering the year, we had 14 -- over $14 billion of cash on the balance sheet.

我們認為進入這一年，我們的資產負債表上有 14 - 超過 140 億美元的現金。

We said we were going to generate adjusted free cash flow of $11 billion to $12 billion in the year.

我們說我們將在今年產生 110 億至 120 億美元的調整後自由現金流。

And that we were going to continue to optimize our IGF portfolio and set of offerings to be a captive aligned to our hybrid cloud and AI strategy, and that would give us another $3 billion to $5 billion.

我們將繼續優化我們的 IGF 產品組合和產品集，使其成為與我們的混合雲和人工智能戰略相一致的俘虜，這將為我們帶來另外 30 億至 50 億美元的收益。

So we had, from a source perspective, about $30 billion overall.

因此，從來源的角度來看，我們總共擁有大約 300 億美元。

When you take that against the uses in the year, we talked about a $3 billion charge for the structural actions in 2021 and our onetime charges for the separation that goes against that $30 billion.

當您將其與當年的用途相比較時，我們談到了 2021 年結構性行動的 30 億美元費用，以及與 300 億美元相抵觸的分離費用。

We talked about $8 billion of debt maturities against that.

我們談到了 80 億美元的債務到期。

And we talked about our dividend being $6 billion overall.

我們談到我們的股息總額為 60 億美元。

So that comes up to be about, what, $16 billion, $17 billion.

所以這大約是 160 億美元，170 億美元。

So we think from a cash source and use perspective that we've got flexibility to continue to invest and compete in the market, both organically and inorganically while delevering to support a very strong balance sheet overall with a single A rating and also deliver given our investor base, deliver a secure and modestly growing dividend overall.

因此，我們認為，從現金來源和使用的角度來看，我們可以靈活地繼續投資並在市場上競爭，無論是有機的還是無機的，同時去槓桿化以支持一個非常強勁的資產負債表，並提供單一的 A 評級，並提供給我們的投資者基礎，總體上提供安全且適度增長的股息。

And what you've seen in the first quarter, I think, only strengthens that position.

我認為，你在第一季度看到的情況只會加強這一地位。

We still ended the quarter with over $11 billion of cash on the balance sheet.

我們在本季度末的資產負債表上仍有超過 110 億美元的現金。

And I'll remind you that we took into account $5 billion of debt maturity, $1.5 billion of dividend in the quarter, roughly $600 million on the onetime charges and another $1 billion plus in acquisitions and still ended with $11 billion overall.

我會提醒你，我們考慮了 50 億美元的債務到期、本季度 15 億美元的股息、約 6 億美元的一次性費用和另外 10 億美元以上的收購，最終仍以 110 億美元結束。

So we feel very confident, and we will capitalize whether there's any inorganic opportunities.

所以我們感到非常有信心，我們會利用是否有任何無機機會。

And you've seen, what, 11 acquisitions since Arvind has taken over.

自 Arvind 接管以來，您已經看到了 11 次收購。

And we'll continue to capitalize where it makes the right client value and the right IBM value at the right economic equation going forward.

我們將繼續利用它在正確的經濟等式中創造正確的客戶價值和正確的 IBM 價值。

But we're not constrained by sources and uses of cash.

但我們不受現金來源和用途的限制。

Thanks, David.

謝謝，大衛。

Sheila, we're past the top of the hour, but why don't we take one more question?

希拉，我們已經過了一小時了，但是我們為什麼不再問一個問題呢？

Our last question will come from Keith Bachman with Bank of Montreal.

我們的最後一個問題將來自蒙特利爾銀行的 Keith Bachman。

Jim, I wanted to follow up on that question.

吉姆，我想跟進這個問題。

If you could talk a little bit about the drivers of the change in underlying cash flow for this year.

如果你能談談今年基本現金流變化的驅動因素。

What are the key metrics?

關鍵指標是什麼？

And how should that make us think about your ability to generate cash in the next fiscal year?

這應該如何讓我們考慮您在下一個財政年度產生現金的能力？

Obviously, I'm eliminating the charges associated with the separation.

顯然，我正在消除與分離相關的指控。

If you could just talk about that.

如果你能談談這個。

And then Arvind, since I am last, I wanted to sneak in one more.

然後是 Arvind，因為我是最後一個，所以我想再偷偷溜進去一個。

You've talked repeatedly about GBS growing in mid-single digits.

您反復談到 GBS 以中個位數增長。

If I just talk about -- pick a number like 5%.

如果我只是談論 - 選擇一個像 5% 這樣的數字。

If you could just clarify how much is M&A within that kind of number?

如果你能澄清一下在這個數字中併購有多少？

And in particular, when you talk about application maintenance, are you assuming that application maintenance grows within GBS?

特別是，當您談論應用程序維護時，您是否假設應用程序維護在 GBS 內增長？

Because it's -- I think it's pretty clear that the industry is struggling for growth.

因為它 - 我認為很明顯該行業正在為增長而苦苦掙扎。

And if you're assuming that application maintenance can grow within the envelope of GBS, I'd like to understand why when I think the industry faces challenges.

如果您假設應用程序維護可以在 GBS 的範圍內增長，我想了解為什麼當我認為該行業面臨挑戰時。

Thanks, Keith, for the question overall.

謝謝，基思，為整個問題。

So let me handle the free cash flow and then Arvind can talk about GBS.

所以讓我處理自由現金流，然後 Arvind 可以談談 GBS。

As we said 90 days ago, which we reiterated here tonight on the call, we feel confident in the forward-looking guidance of $11 billion to $12 billion of adjusted free cash flow in '21.

正如我們 90 天前所說，我們今晚在電話會議上重申了這一點，我們對 21 年調整後自由現金流 110 億至 120 億美元的前瞻性指導充滿信心。

And if you remember, 90 days ago, to give the investor a perspective of the sustainability, just given the $3 billion worth of charges we will have from the structural actions in the fourth quarter and the upcoming spin separation charges, we gave a perspective of 2022 that, that would accelerate to $12 billion to $13 billion of adjusted free cash flow.

如果你還記得，90 天前，為了讓投資者了解可持續性，考慮到我們將在第四季度的結構性行動和即將到來的旋轉分離費用中產生的價值 30 億美元的費用，我們給出了一個觀點到 2022 年，這將加速至 120 億至 130 億美元的調整後自由現金流。

When you look at the underpinnings of both '21 and then 2022, I think you start seeing the fundamentals of our business model, and that is returning back the revenue growth, the operating leverage that this business can generate with some level of sustainable level of revenue growth, the underlying mix contribution of that and the continued productivity that this business drives.

當您查看 21 年和 2022 年的基礎時，我認為您開始看到我們業務模式的基本面，那就是恢復收入增長，該業務可以產生一定程度可持續水平的運營槓桿收入增長、潛在的組合貢獻以及該業務推動的持續生產力。

You will see profit growth.

你會看到利潤增長。

And also, I remind you, Red Hat, which we achieved being free cash flow accretive in the first year will continue to drive improvements.

此外，我提醒您，我們在第一年實現自由現金流增長的紅帽將繼續推動改進。

Now we've been making great progress on working capital efficiency.

現在，我們在營運資金效率方面取得了很大進展。

And I would tell you our collections rate, we didn't talk about it, although in the prepared remarks, I talked about our record deferred income, given the strength of our software renewal position overall, all of those will continue to generate improvements going forward.

我會告訴你我們的收款率，我們沒有談論它，儘管在準備好的評論中，我談到了我們創紀錄的遞延收入，鑑於我們整體軟件更新地位的實力，所有這些都將繼續產生改進向前。

But that is going to be needed in 2021 because we got about $1 billion cash tax headwind with all of that in front of us.

但這在 2021 年將是必需的，因為我們面臨著大約 10 億美元的現金稅逆風，所有這些都擺在我們面前。

I would say probably 60% to 70% will hit in the second quarter.

我會說第二季度可能會達到 60% 到 70%。

So once we get through that cash tax headwind here, we feel pretty comfortable and confident in that cash generation machine, leveraging sustainable revenue growth and operating leverage in the business on our way to $12 billion to $13 billion next year.

因此，一旦我們在這裡度過了現金稅的逆風，我們就會對這台現金產生機器感到非常自在和充滿信心，利用可持續的收入增長和業務運營槓桿，我們明年將達到 120 億至 130 億美元。

Thanks.

謝謝。

And Keith, you asked one of my favorite questions, how is GBS going to grow and how much will it grow?

基思，你問了我最喜歡的問題之一，GBS 將如何增長，它將增長多少？

So when you look at the mid-single-digits, that's actually our nearer-term forecast.

因此，當您查看中個位數時，這實際上是我們的近期預測。

Our goals certainly are to make it grow even above that.

我們的目標當然是讓它增長到更高的水平。

If you look at the M&A component, look, I mean, M&A could contribute at most a couple of points to that growth.

如果你看看併購部分，我的意思是，併購最多可以為這種增長貢獻幾個點。

It's just would be -- that would be sort of the upper bound, and we won't necessarily see all of that even this year, but who knows?

只是——這將是某種上限，即使在今年我們也不一定會看到所有這些，但誰知道呢？

Because it's hard to predict how much those properties can grow once they're inside IBM as well.

因為很難預測這些屬性一旦進入 IBM 內部會增長多少。

But you shouldn't expect more than that.

但你不應該期望更多。

But that's part of our path to make GBS grow faster even than the mid-single digits.

但這是我們讓 GBS 增長速度甚至超過中個位數的路徑的一部分。

Now in terms of AMS, AMS is really important for a number of reasons.

現在就 AMS 而言，AMS 非常重要，原因有很多。

And it all depends on how you define it.

而這一切都取決於你如何定義它。

If you define it as this is application management and maintenance of those applications that were in place 5 years ago.

如果您將其定義為這是對 5 年前應用程序的應用程序管理和維護。

By definition, that will shrink because everybody expects massive productivity and they don't expect those to grow.

根據定義，這將縮小，因為每個人都期望巨大的生產力，而他們並不期望這些生產力會增長。

And you kind of see that in the numbers.

你可以從數字中看到這一點。

But why is that incumbency relevant?

但為什麼在職是相關的？

As you have knowledge of that application base and you now help the client on their cloud transformation journey, then what was that older application estate now becomes a brand-new application estate and you get growth because you're helping them transform it using AI, using workflows, using cloud.

當您了解該應用程序基礎並且您現在幫助客戶完成他們的雲轉型之旅時，那麼舊的應用程序資產現在變成了全新的應用程序資產並且您獲得增長，因為您正在幫助他們使用 AI 進行轉型，使用工作流，使用雲。

And so that contributes to growth, whether that shows up in consulting near term and then AMS long term, whether that shows up as global processor business services in the medium term, that's the kind of mix that goes on, but that is why AMS is critical to giving GBS its kind of fuel in order to grow.

因此，這有助於增長，無論是短期諮詢還是 AMS 長期諮詢，中期是否顯示為全球處理器業務服務，這就是這種混合，但這就是為什麼 AMS 是對於為 GBS 提供燃料以實現增長至關重要。

But that is why we are confident in the mid to single -- mid- to high single-digit growth in the longer term for GBS.

但這就是為什麼我們對 GBS 的長期中到個位數增長充滿信心的原因。

So Keith, thanks.

所以基思，謝謝。

But since we are well past over the hour, let me just make a couple of comments to wrap up the call.

但是，由於我們已經過了一個多小時，所以讓我發表一些評論來結束這次電話會議。

We had a good start to the year.

我們有一個良好的開端。

We expect to continue our progress over the course of the year as we execute our strategy and realize benefits from the investments and actions we are taking.

隨著我們執行我們的戰略並從我們正在採取的投資和行動中實現收益，我們希望在這一年中繼續取得進展。

We will exit 2021 in a stronger position than we started the year, and I look forward to continuing this dialogue with you.

我們將在 2021 年以比年初更有利的地位退出，我期待與您繼續對話。

Thanks, Arvind.

謝謝，阿文德。

Sheila, let me turn it back to you to close out the call.

希拉，讓我把它轉回給你以結束通話。

Thank you for participating on today's call.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。

The conference has now ended.

會議現已結束。

You may disconnect at this time.

此時您可以斷開連接。