International Business Machines Corp (IBM) 2020 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome, and thank you for standing by.

歡迎，並感謝您的支持。

(Operator Instructions) Today's conference is being recorded.

（操作員說明）今天的會議正在錄製中。

If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time.

如果您有任何異議，您可以在此時斷開連接。

Now I would like to turn the meeting over to Ms. Patricia Murphy with IBM.

現在我想把會議交給 IBM 的 Patricia Murphy 女士。

Ma'am, you may begin.

女士，您可以開始了。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

This is Patricia Murphy, and I'd like to welcome you to IBM's Fourth Quarter 2020 Earnings Presentation.

我是 Patricia Murphy，歡迎您參加 IBM 2020 年第四季度財報發布會。

I'm here with Arvind Krishna, IBM's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Jim Kavanaugh, IBM's Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

我和 IBM 董事長兼首席執行官 Arvind Krishna 一起來到這裡。 IBM 高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Jim Kavanaugh。

We'll post today's prepared remarks on the IBM investor website within a couple of hours, and a replay will be available by this time tomorrow.

我們將在幾個小時內將今天準備好的評論發佈在 IBM 投資者網站上，明天這個時候將提供重播。

Some comments made in this presentation may be considered forward-looking under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

根據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》，本演示文稿中的一些評論可能被視為具有前瞻性。

These statements involve factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially.

這些陳述涉及可能導致我們的實際結果出現重大差異的因素。

Additional information about these factors is included in the company's SEC filings.

有關這些因素的其他信息包含在公司提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中。

Our presentation also includes non-GAAP measures to provide additional information to investors.

我們的演示文稿還包括為投資者提供額外信息的非公認會計原則措施。

For example, we present revenue and signings growth at constant currency throughout the presentation.

例如，我們在整個演示過程中以固定貨幣呈現收入和簽約增長。

In addition, to provide a view consistent with our go-forward business, we'll focus on constant currency growth adjusting for the divested businesses for the impacted lines of total revenue, cloud and our geographic performance.

此外，為了提供與我們未來業務一致的觀點，我們將專注於對被剝離業務的持續貨幣增長進行調整，以了解受影響的總收入、雲計算和我們的地理表現。

We have provided reconciliation charts for these and other non-GAAP measures at the end of the presentation and in the 8-K submitted to the SEC.

我們在演示文稿結束時和提交給 SEC 的 8-K 中提供了這些和其他非 GAAP 措施的調節圖表。

So with that, I'll turn the call over to Arvind.

因此，我將把電話轉給 Arvind。

Hello, everyone.

大家好。

Thank you for joining today, and I'm pleased to be speaking with the investment community again.

感謝您今天加入，我很高興再次與投資界交談。

Over the next 15 minutes, I'll talk about where we stand in the execution of our strategy as we begin 2021 and how we are running the company to align with the strategy.

在接下來的 15 分鐘內，我將討論我們在 2021 年開始時在執行戰略方面的立場，以及我們如何運營公司以與戰略保持一致。

I'll provide a perspective on the current environment and our results.

我將提供一個關於當前環境和我們結果的觀點。

Then in the spirit of being as transparent with you as possible, I will speak to our expectations for the next 2 years.

然後，本著對你盡可能透明的精神，我將談談我們對未來 2 年的期望。

Jim Kavanaugh will then cover the quarter, give more detail on the separation process for our Managed Infrastructure Services business.

Jim Kavanaugh 隨後將介紹本季度，詳細介紹我們託管基礎設施服務業務的分離流程。

I've also asked Martin Schroeter to join us to make a few comments as the recently named CEO of this business.

我還邀請 Martin Schroeter 加入我們，作為最近任命的該公司首席執行官發表一些評論。

Jim will conclude with additional color on our 2021 expectations, and then Jim and I will take your questions.

Jim 將對我們對 2021 年的期望進行補充說明，然後 Jim 和我將回答您的問題。

I'd ask you to please bear with us if we go slightly longer than usual on this call.

如果我們在這次電話會議上的時間比平時稍長，請您多多包涵。

When I was appointed CEO in April, I laid out my approach to growing the value of the company which is straightforward.

當我在 4 月被任命為 CEO 時，我提出了提升公司價值的簡單方法。

We will significantly increase our focus on our hybrid cloud and AI capabilities, the 2 most important transformational journeys for our clients.

我們將顯著增加對混合雲和人工智能功能的關注，這是我們客戶最重要的兩個轉型之旅。

In the 9 months since then, we have taken a series of important actions to redefine our future as a hybrid cloud platform and AI company.

從那以後的 9 個月裡，我們採取了一系列重要行動來重新定義我們作為混合雲平台和 AI 公司的未來。

This is where we are focusing the bulk of our efforts, time and investments.

這是我們集中大部分精力、時間和投資的地方。

In spite of the many challenges in 2020, we have made good progress.

儘管 2020 年面臨諸多挑戰，但我們取得了良好的進展。

In 2021, and we believe you will see that progress showing up in our results.

2021 年，我們相信您會在我們的結果中看到這一進展。

With that said, we know it's not necessarily going to be a straight line.

話雖如此，我們知道這不一定是一條直線。

The operating environment remains difficult because of what clients are experiencing at the moment.

由於客戶目前的經歷，運營環境仍然很困難。

We can see that in the quarter just past.

我們可以在剛剛過去的一個季度看到這一點。

Our revenue was slightly behind typical seasonality, but we finished strong in free cash flow, which is important as it's the fuel for investments.

我們的收入略低於典型的季節性，但我們在自由現金流方面表現強勁，這很重要，因為它是投資的燃料。

Our performance reflects the fact that our clients continue to deal with the effects of the pandemic and broader uncertainty of the macro environment.

我們的業績反映了這樣一個事實，即我們的客戶繼續應對大流行的影響和宏觀環境更廣泛的不確定性。

This puts additional pressure on larger software transactions this quarter and project delays in some services engagements.

這給本季度更大的軟件交易以及一些服務項目的項目延遲帶來了額外的壓力。

Our revenue growth was also impacted by IBM-specific headwinds of our product cycle and compare challenges.

我們的收入增長也受到產品週期和比較挑戰的 IBM 特定逆風的影響。

Notwithstanding the short-term market dynamics, we believe we have the plans in place and the focus inside the business to be able to grow in 2021.

儘管存在短期市場動態，但我們相信我們已經制定了計劃並專注於業務，以便能夠在 2021 年實現增長。

That said, in the midst of all this, I'm seeing an ever greater need from clients to accelerate their digital transformation, and this bodes very well for us now and over the long term.

也就是說，在這一切之中，我看到客戶越來越需要加速他們的數字化轉型，這對我們現在和長期來說都是個好兆頭。

As I've told you before, the opportunity in hybrid cloud and AI is enormous.

正如我之前告訴過你的，混合雲和人工智能的機會是巨大的。

In fact, we see the hybrid cloud opportunity at $1 trillion, with less than 25% of workloads having moved to the cloud so far.

事實上，我們看到了 1 萬億美元的混合雲機會，到目前為止，只有不到 25% 的工作負載轉移到了雲端。

Our approach is platform centric.

我們的方法是以平台為中心。

Linux, along with containers and Kubernetes, provides the foundation of our hybrid cloud platform.

Linux 以及容器和 Kubernetes 為我們的混合雲平台奠定了基礎。

And Red Hat OpenShift is the core product that captures all this and more.

而紅帽 OpenShift 是涵蓋所有這些以及更多內容的核心產品。

Our hybrid cloud approach is also differentiated by a vast software portfolio, modernized to run cloud-native, and our GBS expertise which plays a key role in driving consumption and is currently helping hundreds of major clients on their own hybrid cloud journeys.

我們的混合雲方法還因龐大的軟件組合而與眾不同，這些軟件組合經過現代化改造以運行雲原生，我們的 GBS 專業知識在推動消費方面發揮著關鍵作用，目前正在幫助數百個主要客戶進行他們自己的混合雲之旅。

With this foundation in place, we are successfully leveraging Red Hat as a unique platform to address what our global, complex and highly regulated clients need.

有了這個基礎，我們成功地利用紅帽作為一個獨特的平台來滿足我們全球、複雜和高度監管的客戶的需求。

A hybrid cloud platform that is open, flexible and secure.

一個開放、靈活和安全的混合雲平台。

Our hybrid cloud approach allows clients to connect their back office to their front office to modernize mission-critical workloads, to build cloud-native apps and to securely deploy and manage data and applications across various clouds.

我們的混合雲方法允許客戶將他們的後台辦公室連接到他們的前台辦公室，以實現任務關鍵型工作負載的現代化，構建雲原生應用程序，並跨各種雲安全地部署和管理數據和應用程序。

We are confident that we have the right strategy for our clients and for IBM.

我們有信心為我們的客戶和 IBM 制定正確的戰略。

Let me comment on some of the proof points we have seen over the last few months as we execute on our hybrid cloud platform and AI strategy.

讓我評論一下過去幾個月我們在混合雲平台和人工智能戰略上執行時看到的一些證據。

First, to drive leadership and focus as a hybrid cloud platform company, a key element of this strategy is to win the architectural battle in cloud.

首先，作為一家混合雲平台公司，為了推動領導地位和專注，該戰略的一個關鍵要素是贏得云架構之戰。

And with our cloud foundation in place, client consumption continues to grow.

隨著我們的雲基礎到位，客戶消費量繼續增長。

We now have 2,800 clients using our platform, a number which has grown 40% over the last year.

我們現在有 2,800 名客戶使用我們的平台，這個數字比去年增長了 40%。

In the fourth quarter, clients such as Barclays, Walmart, GEICO, Airbus, Ford, ABB are all leveraging our hybrid cloud platform to accelerate their own digital transformation journeys.

第四季度，巴克萊、沃爾瑪、GEICO、空中客車、福特、ABB 等客戶都在利用我們的混合雲平台加速自己的數字化轉型之旅。

We're also making good headway in our focus on industry clouds which are designed to tackle the specific needs of mission-critical and highly regulated industries.

我們在專注於行業雲方面也取得了良好進展，這些雲旨在滿足關鍵任務和高度監管行業的特定需求。

Following the successful launch of our cloud for financial services last year with more than 75 IS suites and SaaS partners, including Adobe, Infosys Finacle, Persistent Systems and many others, we launched our cloud for telecommunications in November.

繼去年與超過 75 個 IS 套件和 SaaS 合作夥伴（包括 Adobe、Infosys Finacle、Persistent Systems 等）成功推出我們的金融服務雲之後，我們於 11 月推出了我們的電信雲。

So far, more than 35 partners have joined our cloud for telecommunications.

到目前為止，已有超過 35 個合作夥伴加入了我們的電信雲。

For example, Samsung is working with IBM and Red Hat to develop new user experiences for business.

例如，三星正在與 IBM 和 Red Hat 合作開發新的企業用戶體驗。

We're also helping major companies like Verizon, Vodafone Idea, Bharti Airtel and AT&T to transform their IT and telecom network operations.

我們還幫助 Verizon、Vodafone Idea、Bharti Airtel 和 AT&T 等大公司轉變其 IT 和電信網絡運營。

Second, to be the trusted partner of clients for data and AI.

二是成為客戶值得信賴的數據和人工智能合作夥伴。

The opportunity in AI is massive, while the current enterprise deployment rate is in the single digits.

人工智能的機會是巨大的，而目前的企業部署率只有個位數。

Clients are now at the point where they are moving from experimenting with AI to deploying it at scale.

客戶現在正處於從試驗人工智能轉向大規模部署人工智能的階段。

To seize this opportunity, our AI platform is focused on data, automation and security, and now includes more than 30,000 clients who have turned to IBM to unlock value from their data.

為了抓住這個機會，我們的 AI 平台專注於數據、自動化和安全性，現在已經有 30,000 多名客戶求助於 IBM 以從他們的數據中釋放價值。

We're helping clients across industries build intelligent workflows by infusing AI into their core business processes, such as hiring, supply chain and customer service.

我們正在幫助各行各業的客戶構建智能工作流程，將 AI 融入其核心業務流程，例如招聘、供應鍊和客戶服務。

When it comes to data and AI, trust is paramount.

在數據和人工智能方面，信任至關重要。

IBM is unique in that we make a hard commitment not to monetize or use our clients' data.

IBM 的獨特之處在於，我們堅決承諾不通過客戶數據獲利或使用客戶數據。

We also offer the industry's strongest commercially available cryptographic technology.

我們還提供業界最強大的商用加密技術。

And we give clients the ability to retain control of their own encryption keys.

我們讓客戶能夠保留對自己加密密鑰的控制權。

In the fourth quarter, clients such as Air Canada, Sprint T-Mobile, State Street and Humana used our rich data and AI capabilities to drive business outcomes.

在第四季度，加拿大航空、Sprint T-Mobile、道富和 Humana 等客戶利用我們豐富的數據和人工智能能力來推動業務成果。

As we look forward, we are also investing to develop and address future market opportunities, such as quantum computing.

展望未來，我們也在投資開發和應對未來的市場機會，例如量子計算。

Quantum has the potential to unlock hundreds of billions of dollars of value for our clients by the end of the decade.

到本世紀末，量子有潛力為我們的客戶釋放數千億美元的價值。

To seize this opportunity, we have a road map to build 1,000-plus qubit quantum computer by 2023, and we have expanded our suite of quantum computers on which our clients are working today.

為了抓住這個機會，我們制定了到 2023 年建造 1000 多個量子比特量子計算機的路線圖，並且我們擴展了我們的客戶目前正在使用的量子計算機套件。

I want to now spend a couple of minutes on a series of significant changes we are making to the company, most since just the beginning of October.

我現在想花幾分鐘時間來了解我們正在對公司進行的一系列重大改變，其中大部分是從 10 月初開始的。

We know that a platform-centric strategy requires a fundamentally different way of doing business.

我們知道，以平台為中心的戰略需要一種完全不同的經營方式。

This is why our operating model is to be quietly but substantially reshaped.

這就是為什麼我們的運營模式要悄無聲息地徹底重塑的原因。

These decisive moves are all aimed at creating value through greater focus on our portfolio, our operating model and the needs of our clients.

這些決定性舉措都旨在通過更加關注我們的投資組合、運營模式和客戶需求來創造價值。

And as they take hold, they will help us to deliver sustainable, mid-single-digit revenue growth post-separation.

當他們站穩腳跟時，他們將幫助我們在分離後實現可持續的中個位數收入增長。

To drive greater focus on our portfolio, we announced the separation of our Managed Infrastructure Services business in October.

為了更加關注我們的產品組合，我們在 10 月宣布分離我們的託管基礎設施服務業務。

As I just mentioned, this month, we appointed Martin Schroeter as this new company's CEO.

正如我剛才提到的，本月，我們任命 Martin Schroeter 為這家新公司的 CEO。

Martin has a unique understanding of the business, its global talent base and 4,600 clients.

Martin 對業務、其全球人才基礎和 4,600 名客戶有著獨特的理解。

You'll hear from him shortly.

你很快就會收到他的來信。

So much remains to be done.

還有很多事情要做。

We are on track to complete the spin by the end of the year.

我們有望在年底前完成旋轉。

We are working closely with clients to ensure a smooth transition, while we are also renewing business and signing new deals.

我們正在與客戶密切合作以確保順利過渡，同時我們也在更新業務並簽署新交易。

We have a comprehensive project management office to establish the new entity and to optimize the business.

我們有一個綜合項目管理辦公室來建立新實體並優化業務。

I can tell you, there's a great deal of excitement among our employees about the opportunities ahead for this new company.

我可以告訴你，我們的員工對這家新公司的未來機會感到非常興奮。

To strengthen our hybrid cloud and AI portfolio, we have announced 10 acquisitions since I became CEO and 7 acquisitions just since October.

為了加強我們的混合雲和 AI 產品組合，自我擔任 CEO 以來，我們宣布了 10 項收購，僅在 10 月就宣布了 7 項收購。

This includes 5 in global business services, which add skills to help our clients with their journeys to cloud; Red Hat's first acquisition as part of IBM that add cloud-native security capabilities for OpenShift.

這包括 5 項全球商業服務，這些服務增加了幫助我們的客戶進行雲之旅的技能； Red Hat 作為 IBM 的一部分進行的首次收購，為 OpenShift 添加了雲原生安全功能。

Our investments in organic and inorganic growth and in our people will continue to be sharply focused on both hybrid cloud and AI.

我們對有機和無機增長以及對員工的投資將繼續高度關注混合雲和人工智能。

To accelerate consumption of our hybrid cloud platform, we are also rapidly expanding our ecosystem by adding hundreds of new partnerships with global system integrators, independent software vendors and major third-party software partners and also elevating the role of partners.

為了加速我們的混合雲平台的消費，我們還通過與全球系統集成商、獨立軟件供應商和主要第三方軟件合作夥伴增加數百個新的合作夥伴關係，並提升合作夥伴的作用，迅速擴展我們的生態系統。

We're investing $1 billion in our ecosystem so that our partners can play a much bigger role in fulfilling the many needs of our clients.

我們正在為我們的生態系統投資 10 億美元，以便我們的合作夥伴可以在滿足客戶的眾多需求方面發揮更大的作用。

As an example, we recently teamed up with Salesforce to deliver a new strategic contact-tracing platform for the U.K. National Health Services to help them in their fight against COVID-19.

例如，我們最近與 Salesforce 合作，為英國國家衛生服務提供了一個新的戰略接觸者追踪平台，以幫助他們對抗 COVID-19。

Salesforce and IBM have also joined forces to address key challenges such as vaccine management using IBM's Sterling supply chain solution, and our blockchain-based digital health pass together with Salesforce's vaccine management and CRM capabilities.

Salesforce 和 IBM 還聯手應對關鍵挑戰，例如使用 IBM 的 Sterling 供應鏈解決方案進行疫苗管理，以及我們基於區塊鏈的數字健康傳遞以及 Salesforce 的疫苗管理和 CRM 功能。

To simplify and transform the way we engage clients, earlier this month, we announced a new go-to-market model.

為了簡化和轉變我們吸引客戶的方式，本月早些時候，我們宣布了一種新的上市模式。

The first aspect is that we have simplified our sales model by adopting a single consistent segmentation which will make it easier for clients to work with us and unlock a great deal of productivity.

第一個方面是我們通過採用單一一致的細分來簡化我們的銷售模式，這將使客戶更容易與我們合作並釋放大量的生產力。

In addition, we are providing clients with a more technical and experiential approach with investment in presales garages that allow us to co-create with our clients earlier in the sales process.

此外，我們通過投資售前車庫為客戶提供更具技術性和體驗性的方法，使我們能夠在銷售過程的早期與客戶共同創造。

And we're ensuring our sales organization is fully incentivized towards our strategic growth areas.

我們確保我們的銷售組織充分激勵我們的戰略增長領域。

Finally, we're investing in and elevating the role of our ecosystem partners to deliver more value to clients.

最後，我們正在投資並提升我們的生態系統合作夥伴的作用，以便為客戶提供更多價值。

Let me say a few words about the changes we're bringing to our culture.

讓我談談我們正在給我們的文化帶來的變化。

Since I became CEO, I've talked a great length about the importance of culture and the need to instill a growth and entrepreneurial mindset.

自從我成為 CEO 以來，我一直在談論文化的重要性以及灌輸成長和創業心態的必要性。

As part of that, we are encouraging more business risk-taking and ensuring a higher tolerance for failure across the business.

作為其中的一部分，我們鼓勵更多的企業冒險，並確保對整個企業的失敗有更高的容忍度。

This should allow us to more quickly respond to clients, seize more opportunities and drive better business outcomes.

這應該使我們能夠更快地響應客戶，抓住更多機會並推動更好的業務成果。

I'm only scratching the surface of all the actions we have taken to sharpen our focus.

我只是觸及了我們為加強重點而採取的所有行動的皮毛。

As a result, we are running the company differently as we begin 2021.

因此，我們在 2021 年開始時以不同的方式運營公司。

I'm convinced that all these changes will allow us to deepen our client footprint and open up new avenues for growth.

我相信，所有這些變化將使我們能夠加深客戶足跡並開闢新的增長途徑。

Now let me speak to our expectations for the next 2 years.

現在讓我談談我們對未來 2 年的期望。

All of the actions I've taken are designed to drive growth, and we expect to deliver sustainable mid-single-digit revenue growth post-separation, with strong free cash flow performance.

我採取的所有行動都是為了推動增長，我們希望在分離後實現可持續的中個位數收入增長，並具有強勁的自由現金流表現。

How do we achieve this?

我們如何實現這一目標？

First, through the continued strong growth of Red Hat, which has grown 18% on a normalized basis in 2020 and will be an even larger contributor to revenue growth post-separation.

首先，通過紅帽的持續強勁增長，紅帽在 2020 年按正常標準增長了 18%，並將成為分離後收入增長的更大貢獻者。

Second, with improvement in the Global Business Services trajectory, we expect GBS to return to its pre-pandemic growth rate by the middle of the year.

其次，隨著全球商業服務軌蹟的改善，我們預計 GBS 將在年中恢復到大流行前的增長率。

Third, by leveraging our expanded ecosystem to further contribute to both GBS and software.

第三，通過利用我們擴展的生態系統進一步為 GBS 和軟件做出貢獻。

And we'll finally start to see the benefit from the investments we are making, both organic and inorganic.

我們最終將開始看到我們正在進行的有機和無機投資的好處。

These will all contribute to an improving software trajectory as well.

這些都將有助於改善軟件軌跡。

In the first half of the year, we expect our results to continue to reflect some of our current challenges as well as our product cycle dynamics.

今年上半年，我們預計我們的業績將繼續反映我們當前的一些挑戰以及我們的產品週期動態。

And of course, all year, we'll be working on the separation of Managed Infrastructure Services.

當然，全年，我們都將致力於託管基礎設施服務的分離。

But these are not long-term trends in the business, and these headwinds will dissipate.

但這些都不是業務的長期趨勢，這些不利因素將會消散。

In 2021, the significant changes we have made to focus on hybrid cloud and AI will also begin to take hold.

2021 年，我們針對混合雲和人工智能所做的重大改變也將開始發揮作用。

The company will look different at the end of the year, particularly with the execution of the spin-out, but also with the operational changes to sharpen our focus.

該公司在今年年底看起來會有所不同，特別是在分拆的執行方面，而且隨著運營變化的增加，我們的重點也會更加突出。

At a high level, in 2021, we expect to grow revenues at current spot rates, with better performance in the second half than the first half.

在較高的水平上，在 2021 年，我們預計收入將以當前的即期匯率增長，下半年的表現將好於上半年。

This is the first step towards achieving mid-single-digit revenue growth post-separation.

這是分離後實現中個位數收入增長的第一步。

And we expect to generate between $11 billion to $12 billion of adjusted free cash flow.

我們預計將產生 110 億至 120 億美元的調整後自由現金流。

These are the measures we are focused on.

這些是我們關注的措施。

This is where we stand today and how we will operate to achieve our growth goal.

這就是我們今天的立場以及我們將如何運作以實現我們的增長目標。

Jim will cover all this in more detail.

Jim 將更詳細地介紹所有這些。

Over to you, Jim.

交給你了，吉姆。

Thanks, Arvind.

謝謝，阿文德。

I'll go through our performance and then wrap up with a perspective on how the actions we've taken in 2020 position us to deliver on these financial objectives.

我將回顧我們的表現，然後總結我們在 2020 年採取的行動如何幫助我們實現這些財務目標。

In the fourth quarter, we delivered $20.4 billion of revenue.

第四季度，我們實現了 204 億美元的收入。

We expanded our gross profit margin with a significant charge for structural actions that improve our go-forward position.

我們通過對改善我們前進地位的結構性行動收取大量費用來擴大我們的毛利率。

We reported operating earnings per share of $2.07.

我們報告的每股營業收益為 2.07 美元。

We generated free cash flow of $10.8 billion for the year.

我們全年產生了 108 億美元的自由現金流。

And we have strong liquidity with a cash position of over $14 billion.

我們擁有強大的流動性，現金頭寸超過 140 億美元。

The fourth quarter is our seasonally largest transactional quarter.

第四季度是我們季節性交易量最大的季度。

And I'll remind you that a year ago, we had a very strong software performance, and our first full quarter of z15 availability.

我會提醒您，一年前，我們擁有非常強大的軟件性能，以及我們第一個完整季度的 z15 可用性。

We knew that given our product cycle dynamics and the pressure from the current environment that the fourth quarter of 2020 would be our most challenging in terms of year-to-year revenue performance.

我們知道，鑑於我們的產品週期動態和來自當前環境的壓力，就年度收入表現而言，2020 年第四季度將是我們最具挑戰性的。

90 days ago, we expected revenue and operating earnings per share to be in line with historical third to fourth quarter seasonality.

90 天前，我們預計收入和每股運營收益將與歷史第三至第四季度的季節性一致。

In 2020, our fourth quarter revenue came in slightly below our typical seasonality, while EPS was at the higher end of the historical range before the charge for structural actions.

2020 年，我們第四季度的收入略低於我們的典型季節性，而每股收益處於結構性行動費用之前的歷史範圍的高端。

And we had a good finish to the year in free cash flow.

我們在自由現金流方面取得了不錯的成績。

The challenging environment we've seen since March continued with the shift in clients' buying behaviors and priorities.

自 3 月以來，隨著客戶購買行為和優先事項的轉變，我們所看到的充滿挑戰的環境仍在繼續。

Given the level of macroeconomic uncertainty, more clients tended to move towards shorter-duration engagements impacting our software revenue.

鑑於宏觀經濟的不確定性，更多的客戶傾向於轉向影響我們軟件收入的短期合作。

But we did have a good IBM Z relative to where we're at in our product cycle.

但相對於我們在產品週期中所處的位置，我們確實擁有一個不錯的 IBM Z。

We also continue to see good demand in offerings that support our clients' digital transformations, and we're driving strong adoption of our hybrid cloud platform.

我們還繼續看到支持客戶數字化轉型的產品的良好需求，我們正在推動我們的混合雲平台的廣泛採用。

Arvind mentioned, we now have 2,800 clients using our hybrid cloud platform.

Arvind 提到，我們現在有 2,800 個客戶使用我們的混合雲平台。

For perspective, that's more than 1,000 new enterprise clients since we acquired Red Hat.

從長遠來看，自從我們收購紅帽以來，這已經是 1,000 多個新的企業客戶。

Red Hat continued its strong performance with normalized revenue growth of 17%.

紅帽繼續保持強勁表現，正常收入增長 17%。

That's slightly higher than the third quarter rate driven by subscription growth.

這略高於受訂閱增長推動的第三季度增長率。

Strong subscription bookings contributed to over 20% backlog growth, and the Red Hat backlog is over $5 billion for the first time.

強勁的訂閱預訂促成了超過 20% 的積壓增長，紅帽積壓首次超過 50 億美元。

Global Business Services continues to drive adoption of OpenShift and IBM Cloud Paks.

Global Business Services 繼續推動 OpenShift 和 IBM Cloud Paks 的採用。

And over the course of 2020, we accelerated the number of GBS engagements using Red Hat technology with 260 engagements for the year.

在 2020 年期間，我們使用紅帽技術加快了 GBS 參與的數量，全年參與了 260 次。

We've discussed the economics of a platform model, with the software and services revenue multiple anywhere from 3x to 8x to platform revenue.

我們已經討論了平台模型的經濟性，軟件和服務收入是平台收入的 3 倍到 8 倍。

Our full-stack cloud capabilities from infrastructure up through our cloud services generated over $25 billion of cloud revenue in 2020, which is up 20% over the prior year.

我們從基礎設施到雲服務的全棧雲功能在 2020 年創造了超過 250 億美元的雲收入，比上一年增長 20%。

IBM is a high-value business, generating ample profit and free cash flow to invest for future growth and support our dividend policy.

IBM 是一家高價值企業，可產生充足的利潤和自由現金流來投資於未來增長並支持我們的股息政策。

We again expanded our operating gross profit margin, up 70 basis points in the fourth quarter and 130 basis points for the year, with expansion across software, services and systems.

我們再次擴大了營業毛利率，第四季度增長了 70 個基點，全年增長了 130 個基點，並在軟件、服務和系統方面進行了擴展。

This operating leverage at the gross margin level enables higher investment in innovation, in skills and an ecosystem.

這種毛利率水平的運營槓桿可以提高對創新、技能和生態系統的投資。

Our fourth quarter pretax profit also reflects a charge of over $2 billion for structural actions to simplify and optimize our operating model and reinvest the savings to accelerate growth.

我們第四季度的稅前利潤還反映了超過 20 億美元的結構性行動費用，以簡化和優化我們的運營模式，並將節省的資金進行再投資以加速增長。

This charge is $260 million or about $0.25 of EPS less than what we discussed back in October, driven by a few countries, primarily in Europe, with government restrictions on certain employment actions in the current environment.

這筆費用比我們在 10 月份討論的要少 2.6 億美元或每股收益約 0.25 美元，這是由一些國家（主要是歐洲）推動的，政府在當前環境下限制了某些就業行動。

This charge did not have much impact on our fourth quarter cash flow.

這項費用對我們第四季度的現金流沒有太大影響。

And we generated over $6 billion of free cash flow in the quarter and $10.8 billion for the year.

我們在本季度產生了超過 60 億美元的自由現金流，全年產生了 108 億美元。

Our free cash flow performance in 2020 was driven by working capital improvements and contribution from Red Hat, net of related interest.

我們在 2020 年的自由現金流表現受到營運資本改善和紅帽貢獻（扣除相關利息）的推動。

This was offset by increases in net capital expenditures to scale our cloud infrastructure and workforce rebalancing payments from previous actions.

這被用於擴展我們的雲基礎設施和勞動力再平衡支付的淨資本支出的增加所抵消。

We continue to have high free cash flow realization, which was well above 100%, as expected.

正如預期的那樣，我們繼續保持高自由現金流實現，遠高於 100%。

We ended the year with a cash balance of $14.3 billion, which is up over $5 billion, while our debt was down $1.4 billion, with $4.5 billion of debt maturities in the fourth quarter.

我們年底的現金餘額為 143 億美元，增加了 50 億多美元，而我們的債務減少了 14 億美元，第四季度的債務為 45 億美元。

Now let me turn to the segments, starting with Cloud & Cognitive Software.

現在讓我轉向細分市場，從雲和認知軟件開始。

Revenue was down 7% in the quarter, and gross margin was up 20 basis points.

本季度收入下降 7%，毛利率上升 20 個基點。

This year has proven to be a challenging transactional environment, especially in the fourth quarter, which is our largest transactional base.

今年已被證明是一個充滿挑戰的交易環境，尤其是在我們最大的交易基礎第四季度。

As I said, we have particularly strong software performance a year ago, when revenue was up 10%.

正如我所說，一年前我們的軟件表現特別強勁，當時收入增長了 10%。

The fourth quarter of 2019 was the peak of our enterprise license agreement or ELA cycle, which renew about every 3 years on average.

2019 年第四季度是我們企業許可協議或 ELA 週期的高峰，平均每 3 年更新一次。

With the uncertainty our clients are facing in the current environment, we're seeing many of them opt for shorter-duration ELAs.

由於我們的客戶在當前環境中面臨的不確定性，我們看到他們中的許多人選擇了短期 ELA。

This dynamic, in combination with the large seasonal volume of ELAs in the fourth quarter, pressured the fourth quarter software revenue performance.

這種動態，再加上第四季度 ELA 的大量季節性數量，給第四季度軟件收入表現帶來了壓力。

At the same time, our renewal rates for subscription and support improved this quarter.

同時，本季度我們的訂閱和支持續訂率有所提高。

In fact, it was the strongest year-to-year increase in some time.

事實上，這是一段時間以來最強勁的同比增長。

This is evidence of our clients extending their commitment to our software solutions.

這證明了我們的客戶對我們的軟件解決方案的承諾不斷擴大。

In this environment, our hybrid cloud and AI solutions like Red Hat and Cloud Paks are resonating with clients.

在這種環境下，我們的混合雲和 AI 解決方案（如 Red Hat 和 Cloud Paks）正在引起客戶的共鳴。

In Cloud & Data Platforms, revenue was up 6%.

在雲和數據平台方面，收入增長了 6%。

Red Hat delivered double-digit growth in both infrastructure and app development and emerging technologies.

紅帽在基礎架構和應用程序開發以及新興技術方面均實現了兩位數的增長。

We continue to gain share in both product areas, instantiating the importance of our hybrid cloud platform and the Linux Foundation to our clients.

我們繼續在這兩個產品領域獲得份額，將我們的混合雲平台和 Linux 基金會對我們的客戶的重要性體現得淋漓盡致。

Earlier this month, Red Hat announced plans to acquire StackRox, a leader and innovator in container- and Kubernetes-native security.

本月早些時候，紅帽宣布計劃收購容器和 Kubernetes 原生安全領域的領導者和創新者 StackRox。

This further enhances Red Hat OpenShift, the industry's leading enterprise hybrid cloud platform.

這進一步增強了業界領先的企業混合雲平台紅帽 OpenShift。

Within Cloud & Data Platforms, we're also building out our integration offerings, bringing AI-powered automation across the portfolio through key partnerships and new innovation.

在雲和數據平台中，我們還在構建我們的集成產品，通過關鍵的合作夥伴關係和新的創新在整個產品組合中實現人工智能驅動的自動化。

During the quarter, we acquired Instana, an application performance monitoring and observability company.

在本季度，我們收購了應用程序性能監控和可觀察性公司 Instana。

We also expanded our partnership with ServiceNow to develop a joint solution around Watson AIOps, an IBM solution which helps enterprises to self-detect, diagnose and respond to IT anomalies in real time.

我們還擴大了與 ServiceNow 的合作夥伴關係，圍繞 Watson AIOps 開發聯合解決方案，這是一種幫助企業實時自我檢測、診斷和響應 IT 異常的 IBM 解決方案。

And we continue to enhance the Cloud Pak for Automation, which grew at a strong double-digit rate this quarter.

我們繼續增強 Cloud Pak for Automation，本季度以兩位數的強勁增長速度增長。

Our Cognitive Application revenue was down less than 2%.

我們的認知應用程序收入下降了不到 2%。

We had growth in security, fueled by our modernized Cloud Pak for security and services.

在我們用於安全和服務的現代化 Cloud Pak 的推動下，我們在安全方面取得了增長。

This was offset by a weaker performance in solutions concentrated in industries more impacted by the current environment, like TRIRIGA, which is focused on commercial real estate.

這被集中在受當前環境影響較大的行業的解決方案的較弱表現所抵消，例如專注於商業房地產的 TRIRIGA。

As expected, our software performance was most impacted by transaction processing platforms.

正如預期的那樣，我們的軟件性能受事務處理平台的影響最大。

Clients' prioritization of OpEx over CapEx was amplified this quarter, with our strong seasonal mix towards transactional revenue and the ELA dynamics I just described.

由於我們對交易收入的強勁季節性組合和我剛才描述的 ELA 動態，本季度客戶對運營支出的優先級超過了資本支出。

In Cloud & Cognitive Software, we remain focused on our hybrid cloud and AI strategy, and we'll continue to invest in our portfolio as we head into 2021.

在雲和認知軟件方面，我們仍然專注於我們的混合雲和人工智能戰略，我們將在進入 2021 年時繼續投資於我們的產品組合。

In Global Business Services, revenue declined 5%, which was about 1 point of sequential improvement from the third quarter.

在全球商業服務中，收入下降了 5%，與第三季度相比環比改善了約 1 個百分點。

And we had gross margin expansion of 260 basis points.

我們的毛利率擴大了 260 個基點。

Our book-to-bill in the quarter was strong, contributing to backlog growth for GBS.

我們在本季度的訂單出貨量強勁，促進了 GBS 的積壓增長。

While there remains some market uncertainty, clients are looking to accelerate their digital reinventions by leveraging business transformation services built on hybrid cloud.

儘管仍然存在一些市場不確定性，但客戶希望通過利用基於混合雲的業務轉型服務來加速他們的數字化改造。

Our offerings are aligned to this high-value opportunity with a clear focus on reimagining workflows using AI and modernizing the underlying application infrastructures through hybrid cloud.

我們的產品與這一高價值機會保持一致，明確專注於使用 AI 重新構想工作流程，並通過混合雲實現底層應用程序基礎架構的現代化。

We see this in our GBS results.

我們在 GBS 結果中看到了這一點。

First, our GBS cloud revenue grew at a double-digit rate for the quarter and the year and is now almost $6 billion annually.

首先，我們的 GBS 雲收入在本季度和年度均以兩位數的速度增長，現在每年接近 60 億美元。

Second, our Global Process Services revenue returned to growth as we deliver efficiency and flexibility to our clients' processes by infusing innovative technology and redesigning workflows.

其次，隨著我們通過注入創新技術和重新設計工作流程為客戶的流程提供效率和靈活性，我們的全球流程服務收入恢復增長。

And third, our consulting signings grew 8%, driven by advisory work for application modernization and enabled by our unique and experiential garage methodology.

第三，我們的諮詢簽約量增長了 8%，這得益於應用現代化的諮詢工作以及我們獨特的體驗式車庫方法。

In Application Management, our performance reflects a continued shift from traditional on-prem services to building and managing cloud applications.

在應用程序管理方面，我們的表現反映了從傳統的本地服務到構建和管理雲應用程序的持續轉變。

Our incumbency in Application Management creates the opportunity and trust to be the partner of choice for their digital journey.

我們在應用程序管理方面的地位創造了機會和信任，成為他們數字之旅的首選合作夥伴。

This GBS incumbency plays an important role in driving adoption of Red Hat's hybrid cloud platform.

這個 GBS 的在職人員在推動採用紅帽混合雲平台方面發揮了重要作用。

As I mentioned earlier, our GBS Red Hat engagements accelerated through the year.

正如我之前提到的，我們與 GBS Red Hat 的合作在這一年中加速了。

We had 75 engagements in the fourth quarter, with clients including BMW, Humana, Samsung Electronics, IKEA and Costco.

我們在第四季度進行了 75 次合作，客戶包括寶馬、Humana、三星電子、宜家和 Costco。

And similar to last quarter, approximately 1/3 of our quarterly Cloud Pak revenue resulted from GBS engagements.

與上一季度類似，我們大約 1/3 的季度 Cloud Pak 收入來自 GBS 業務。

To continue this momentum, we are investing in ecosystems, resources, offerings and skills.

為了保持這種勢頭，我們正在投資於生態系統、資源、產品和技能。

Arvind mentioned, we have announced 5 GBS acquisitions in the last few months.

Arvind 提到，我們在過去幾個月宣布了 5 次 GBS 收購。

Nordcloud and Thales provide cloud-native development, multi-cloud migration and platform engineering solutions that advance our clients' cloud journeys.

Nordcloud 和泰雷茲提供雲原生開發、多雲遷移和平台工程解決方案，以推進客戶的雲之旅。

And 7Summits, a leading SalesForce partner; Truqua, a leading SAP partner; and Expertus, a leading digital payments solutions provider, are collectively at the center of our clients' digital transformations.

以及領先的銷售團隊合作夥伴 7Summits；領先的 SAP 合作夥伴 Truqua； Expertus 是領先的數字支付解決方案提供商，共同處於我們客戶數字化轉型的中心。

Finally, the investments we have made in our delivery capabilities, such as our innovative dynamic delivery model, have resulted in improved delivery quality, which are reflected in our Net Promoter Scores and our gross margin expansion.

最後，我們在交付能力方面的投資，例如我們創新的動態交付模式，提高了交付質量，這反映在我們的淨推薦值和毛利率擴張中。

Turning to systems, revenue was down 19% driven by product cycle dynamics, while our gross margin expanded 380 basis points.

轉向系統，在產品週期動態的推動下，收入下降了 19%，而我們的毛利率擴大了 380 個基點。

We saw the product cycle dynamics play out in IBM Z, power and storage.

我們看到產品週期動態在 IBM Z、電源和存儲中發揮作用。

Power revenue was down at a level consistent with last quarter.

電力收入下降至與上一季度一致的水平。

And storage revenue was also down, driven by high-end storage tied to the IBM Z cycle.

由於與 IBM Z 週期相關的高端存儲，存儲收入也有所下降。

IBM Z revenue was down 24% as we've wrapped on a strong growth in the fourth quarter last year, when we were up 63%.

IBM Z 收入下降了 24%，因為我們在去年第四季度實現了強勁增長，當時我們增長了 63%。

90 days ago, I mentioned that clients and sectors like banking and financial markets made purchases early in the cycle to manage through robust market volatility.

90 天前，我提到客戶和銀行和金融市場等行業在周期早期進行購買，以應對劇烈的市場波動。

While those in select other industries focused on cash preservation, elongating z15 adoption.

而其他特定行業的企業則專注於現金保值，從而擴大 z15 的採用率。

We've made up ground in the quarter, and improved adoption in some of the lagging industries.

我們在本季度取得了進展，並提高了一些落後行業的採用率。

IBM Z delivered growth for the year despite a second half wrap on the product cycle and within a challenging environment.

儘管產品週期已進入下半年並且在充滿挑戰的環境中，IBM Z 在這一年實現了增長。

This reflects the importance of this high-value, secure and scalable platform with cloud-native development capabilities.

這反映了這個具有云原生開發能力的高價值、安全和可擴展平台的重要性。

Based on this performance, we expect z15 to be fairly consistent with prior cycles.

基於這一性能，我們預計 z15 與之前的周期相當一致。

And looking back over a longer period of time, our installed base of MIPS is over 3.5x the level of a decade ago, with 60% of our installed base now in new workload areas like Linux.

回顧更長的時間，我們的 MIPS 安裝基礎是十年前的 3.5 倍以上，現在我們 60% 的安裝基礎在 Linux 等新的工作負載領域。

The systems portfolio continues to deliver critical and lasting value to our enterprise client base in support of our hybrid cloud strategy.

系統產品組合繼續為我們的企業客戶群提供關鍵和持久的價值，以支持我們的混合雲戰略。

Turning to GTS.

轉向 GTS。

While revenue was down 8%, we expanded gross margin by 70 basis points.

雖然收入下降了 8%，但我們將毛利率擴大了 70 個基點。

We had strong contract renewals and added a number of new clients.

我們有強大的合同續簽並增加了許多新客戶。

As Arvind mentioned, at the beginning of October, we announced the spin-off of our Managed Infrastructure Services business into a separate public company, which we're referring to as NewCo for now.

正如 Arvind 所說，在 10 月初，我們宣布將我們的託管基礎設施服務業務分拆為一家獨立的上市公司，我們現在將其稱為 NewCo。

We are making good progress on that work and remain on track to complete by the end of the year.

我們在這項工作上取得了良好進展，並有望在年底前完成。

As we discussed in October, this process is complex and includes working with clients to ensure a smooth transition to NewCo as the world's leading infrastructure services provider; optimizing the business model to improve its financial profile; and executing upon the necessary financial, legal and regulatory milestones to enable the transaction.

正如我們在 10 月份所討論的，這個過程很複雜，包括與客戶合作以確保順利過渡到 NewCo 作為全球領先的基礎設施服務提供商；優化商業模式以改善其財務狀況；並執行必要的財務、法律和監管里程碑以實現交易。

I'll give you some additional color on each of these 3 areas.

我會在這三個區域中的每一個上給你一些額外的顏色。

First, from a client perspective, we are deeply engaged with our clients that make up the $62 billion of backlog, and they are strongly supportive.

首先，從客戶的角度來看，我們與構成 620 億美元積壓訂單的客戶進行了深入接觸，他們對此表示大力支持。

We are seeing client confidence in NewCo's long-term value proposition to manage and modernize mission-critical infrastructures.

我們看到客戶對 NewCo 管理和現代化關鍵任務基礎設施的長期價值主張充滿信心。

This quarter, we had wins at clients such as Dutch Ministry of Defense, PhoneGroup and Bankinter.

本季度，我們在荷蘭國防部、PhoneGroup 和 Bankinter 等客戶中取得了勝利。

In the fourth quarter, we signed 11 new logo deals, which is more than double the prior year and one of the highest in the last couple of years.

在第四季度，我們簽署了 11 項新的徽標交易，比上一年增加了一倍多，是過去幾年中最高的交易之一。

Our renewal rates of existing contracts this quarter were also at the higher end of our historical performance.

本季度我們現有合同的續簽率也處於歷史業績的較高端。

However, while we had a strong pipeline as we entered the quarter with the announcement, as expected, some negotiations were extended, resulting in some deals moving out of the quarter.

然而，雖然我們在宣布進入本季度時擁有強大的管道，但正如預期的那樣，一些談判延長了，導致一些交易移出本季度。

Secondly, we are optimizing the NewCo business to have a leaner and more efficient operating model.

其次，我們正在優化新公司業務，以擁有更精簡、更高效的運營模式。

We continue to take a disciplined approach to improving our margins and overall financial profile.

我們繼續採取嚴格的方法來提高我們的利潤率和整體財務狀況。

As part of this, a considerable portion of the $2 billion charge for structural actions was for GTS.

作為其中的一部分，20 億美元的結構性行動費用中有相當一部分用於 GTS。

We also have taken steps to restructure existing contracts and further reduce activity and lower-value offerings.

我們還採取措施重組現有合同，進一步減少活動和低價值產品。

These actions impacted our revenue performance this quarter but contributed to the gross margin expansion of 70 basis points.

這些行動影響了我們本季度的收入表現，但導致毛利率擴大了 70 個基點。

All of this positions NewCo for an improved margin, profit and cash generation profile.

所有這些都使 NewCo 的利潤率、利潤和現金產生狀況得到改善。

Lastly, NewCo has an unparalleled operational footprint.

最後，NewCo 擁有無與倫比的運營足跡。

It has approximately 90,000 employees and operates in roughly 115 countries.

它擁有大約 90,000 名員工，在大約 115 個國家/地區開展業務。

And as you know, Managed Infrastructure Services is an integrated business, not only within IBM but within GTS.

如您所知，託管基礎設施服務是一項集成業務，不僅在 IBM 內部，而且在 GTS 內部。

We are executing on our detailed plan to achieve the milestones to create a stand-alone company.

我們正在執行我們的詳細計劃，以實現創建獨立公司的里程碑。

Today, we are working with works councils on employment terms, establishing NewCo's legal entities across the world, drafting the agreements, which outlined the ongoing relationship between IBM and NewCo and developing audited financials.

今天，我們正在與工作委員會就僱傭條款進行合作，在全球範圍內建立 NewCo 的法律實體，起草協議，概述 IBM 和 NewCo 之間的持續關係，並製定經審計的財務報告。

We expect the Form 10 to be available in the fall, at which time we will conduct investor outreach.

我們預計表格 10 將在秋季推出，屆時我們將開展投資者外展活動。

We will continue to update our progress as we move through the year.

隨著這一年的推進，我們將繼續更新我們的進展。

This is a good place to pause and turn it over to Martin Schroeter, NewCo's new CEO.

這是一個暫停並將其交給 NewCo 新任首席執行官 Martin Schroeter 的好地方。

Thank you, Jim.

謝謝你，吉姆。

I'm delighted and honored to be briefly speaking with you today on IBM's earnings call as the CEO of NewCo, and yes, we are working on a name.

我很高興也很榮幸能在今天作為 NewCo 首席執行官的 IBM 財報電話會議上與您進行簡短的交談，是的，我們正在研究一個名稱。

When Arvind and I began talking about this role, he let me speak with all the teams who are working on it.

當 Arvind 和我開始談論這個角色時，他讓我與所有正在為此工作的團隊交談。

And as I did my due diligence, it became very clear to me that I absolutely wanted to be a part of this.

當我進行盡職調查時，我很清楚我絕對想成為其中的一部分。

With the outstanding talent in NewCo, the nature of NewCo's work for the leading companies in every industry and the freedom of action or the mandate that NewCo will have, I could not be more excited about the future of this business.

憑藉 NewCo 的傑出人才、NewCo 為各行業領先公司工作的性質以及 NewCo 將擁有的行動自由或授權，我對這項業務的未來感到無比興奮。

Of course, as Jim noted, we have a lot of work to do prior to NewCo being a separate publicly traded company.

當然，正如 Jim 所說，在 NewCo 成為一家獨立的上市公司之前，我們還有很多工作要做。

And as we put all of that together, I'll tell you more of the story about what NewCo will look like.

當我們把所有這些放在一起時，我會告訴你更多關於 NewCo 會是什麼樣子的故事。

In the meantime, we do know what we have to get right in order to realize the tremendous potential we see.

與此同時，我們確實知道我們必須做正確的事情才能實現我們所看到的巨大潛力。

First, we know that we must continue to serve our clients.

首先，我們知道我們必須繼續為客戶服務。

These industry leaders, NewCo's clients, trust us to deliver some of their most important workloads in challenging environments, and NewCo will continue to do that.

這些行業領導者，NewCo 的客戶，相信我們能夠在充滿挑戰的環境中交付他們一些最重要的工作負載，NewCo 將繼續這樣做。

It's what our clients expect and deserve.

這是我們的客戶所期望和應得的。

It's always been NewCo's true north, and will continue to be.

它一直是 NewCo 的真正北方，並將繼續如此。

And over time, our clients will see our strong investments bring new capabilities into their environments to help their ongoing journey into a more digitized world.

隨著時間的推移，我們的客戶將看到我們的強大投資為他們的環境帶來了新的能力，以幫助他們進入一個更加數字化的世界。

Second, we must continue to invest and develop our teams.

其次，我們必須繼續投資和發展我們的團隊。

The teams our clients see and need every day.

我們的客戶每天看到和需要的團隊。

To our clients, our people are the face of NewCo, and they are the people who know how to make these complex systems work.

對於我們的客戶來說，我們的員工就是 NewCo 的面孔，他們知道如何讓這些複雜的系統發揮作用。

So we'll build the right inclusive culture around client service, innovation and talent so our clients continue to see how our team shine brighter than any other.

因此，我們將圍繞客戶服務、創新和人才建立正確的包容性文化，以便我們的客戶繼續看到我們的團隊如何比其他任何人都更加閃耀。

Third, and in support of the other elements of our business, we must establish the financial model for NewCo that ensures our long-term success.

第三，為了支持我們業務的其他要素，我們必須為 NewCo 建立確保我們長期成功的財務模型。

IBM has already provided, at a high level, some of the characteristics of NewCo's financial profile when it becomes independent, and we're working on the specifics now in order to give you a complete and clear view of NewCo's profile.

IBM 已經從高層次上提供了 NewCo 獨立後財務狀況的一些特徵，我們現在正在研究具體細節，以便讓您全面而清晰地了解 NewCo 的狀況。

But we know that NewCo's long-term success requires the right starting point.

但我們知道，NewCo 的長期成功需要正確的起點。

And we'll make sure NewCo has launched the right way.

我們將確保 NewCo 以正確的方式推出。

And of course, we must build a strong relationship with our owners and the broader stakeholder community.

當然，我們必須與我們的所有者和更廣泛的利益相關者社區建立牢固的關係。

To that point, I look forward to discussing the opportunities we see and how we intend to capture them in due course.

在這一點上，我期待討論我們看到的機會以及我們打算如何在適當的時候抓住它們。

As I said, I was not going to miss the opportunity to be a part of this with a sharper focus and broad freedom of action, we have a tremendous opportunity to drive client value and translate that into a compelling investment thesis.

正如我所說，我不會錯過以更清晰的焦點和更廣泛的行動自由參與其中的機會，我們有一個巨大的機會來推動客戶價值並將其轉化為引人注目的投資論點。

Now I'll turn it back to Jim.

現在我會把它轉回給吉姆。

Thanks, Martin.

謝謝，馬丁。

Now before the Q&A, I want to bring it back up to the IBM level with a summary of the actions we are taking and the resulting expectations for 2021.

現在，在問答環節之前，我想通過總結我們正在採取的行動以及由此產生的對 2021 年的預期，將其恢復到 IBM 級別。

These actions span our portfolio, our operating model and our capital structure.

這些行動涵蓋了我們的投資組合、運營模式和資本結構。

After building a foundation in hybrid cloud and accelerating Red Hat platform adoption, we are now separating Managed Infrastructure Services to better align to our platform strategy and improve the financial profile of both businesses.

在為混合雲奠定基礎並加速紅帽平台採用之後，我們現在將託管基礎架構服務分開，以更好地符合我們的平台戰略並改善兩家企業的財務狀況。

At the same time, we are increasing investments, organic and inorganic, in innovation, expertise and ecosystems.

與此同時，我們正在增加對創新、專業知識和生態系統的有機和無機投資。

We're investing in platform capabilities, including security and industry-specific clouds.

我們正在投資於平台功能，包括安全性和行業特定的雲。

We're investing in data and AI and in technologies like Quantum to create future market opportunities.

我們正在投資於數據和人工智能以及 Quantum 等技術，以創造未來的市場機會。

As we bring these innovations to market, we're adding GBS' skills and expertise.

隨著我們將這些創新推向市場，我們正在增加 GBS 的技能和專業知識。

We're making changes to our go to market to engage our clients in a more technical and experiential way.

我們正在改變我們的上市方式，以更技術性和體驗性的方式吸引我們的客戶。

And we're expanding our ecosystem to drive platform adoption and broaden our reach.

我們正在擴展我們的生態系統，以推動平台採用並擴大我們的影響範圍。

And in the fourth quarter, we executed structural actions to simplify and streamline our business.

在第四季度，我們執行了結構性措施來簡化和精簡我們的業務。

These actions will improve the EBITDA profile of NewCo, address stranded costs from the separation and generate savings that will be reinvested to extend our position in hybrid cloud and AI and accelerate our growth.

這些行動將改善 NewCo 的 EBITDA 概況，解決分離帶來的擱淺成本，並節省將用於再投資以擴大我們在混合雲和人工智能領域的地位並加速我們的增長。

We have also taken actions to enhance our balance sheet and liquidity resulting in a stronger financial position.

我們還採取行動增強我們的資產負債表和流動性，從而增強財務狀況。

We have focused our captive financing business on IBM's hybrid cloud and AI offerings.

我們將專屬融資業務的重點放在 IBM 的混合雲和人工智能產品上。

We've exited OEM commercial financing and have entered into an agreement to sell our IBM commercial financing receivables.

我們已退出 OEM 商業融資，並已簽訂協議出售我們的 IBM 商業融資應收賬款。

As a result, our financing receivables have declined from $32 billion to $18 billion over the last 2 years, reducing our external debt needs.

因此，我們的融資應收賬款在過去兩年中從 320 億美元下降到 180 億美元，從而減少了我們的外債需求。

Looking at our retirement-related plans, as you know, we have shifted our asset base to a lower-risk, lower-return profile.

如您所知，看看我們與退休相關的計劃，我們已將資產基礎轉向低風險、低迴報的模式。

At the end of the year, our plans remain well funded.

到年底，我們的計劃仍然資金充足。

Our overall returns in 2020 were well ahead of expected returns, and the funded status of our worldwide qualified plans was consistent with last year.

我們在 2020 年的整體回報遠超預期回報，我們的全球合格計劃的資金狀況與去年一致。

Bringing it all together, we feel good about the path we're on moving into 2021.

綜上所述，我們對進入 2021 年的道路感覺良好。

And as Arvind said, we expect an improving financial profile throughout the year.

正如 Arvind 所說，我們預計全年的財務狀況都會有所改善。

For the full year, we expect to grow revenue at current spot rates.

全年，我們預計收入將以當前的即期匯率增長。

In the first half, we expect our results to continue to be impacted by the shift to shorter-duration software transactions as clients deal with uncertainty, and by our IBM Z product cycle dynamics.

在上半年，我們預計我們的業績將繼續受到隨著客戶處理不確定性而轉向短期軟件交易以及我們的 IBM Z 產品週期動態的影響。

At the same time, we expect GBS to return to pre-pandemic revenue growth rates by midyear.

同時，我們預計 GBS 將在年中恢復到大流行前的收入增長率。

As I mentioned, we weren't able to execute the structural actions in all countries in the fourth quarter.

正如我所提到的，我們未能在第四季度在所有國家/地區執行結構性行動。

We anticipate the restrictions will be lifted over the next several months and are planning to execute the remaining structural actions in the first half of 2021, which will result in $260 million of pretax charges.

我們預計這些限制將在未來幾個月內解除，併計劃在 2021 年上半年執行剩餘的結構性行動，這將產生 2.6 億美元的稅前費用。

Looking at our cash flows, we expect $11 billion to $12 billion of adjusted free cash flow in 2021.

從我們的現金流來看，我們預計 2021 年調整後的自由現金流為 110 億至 120 億美元。

This reflects a year-to-year cash tax headwind of about $1 billion.

這反映了每年約 10 億美元的現金稅逆風。

But to be clear, this adjusted free cash flow does not include the cash impact of the structural actions or the transaction cost associated with the spin-off of our Managed Infrastructure Services business.

但需要明確的是，這一調整後的自由現金流不包括結構性行動的現金影響或與我們的託管基礎設施服務業務分拆相關的交易成本。

For perspective, at this point, we expect to pay about $4 billion for these items over the next 18 months, with about $3 billion in 2021.

從長遠來看，在這一點上，我們預計在未來 18 個月內為這些項目支付約 40 億美元，到 2021 年將支付約 30 億美元。

As we look to 2022, we expect to build on this with adjusted free cash flow in the range of $12 billion to $13 billion.

展望 2022 年，我們預計將在此基礎上調整後的自由現金流在 120 億美元至 130 億美元之間。

I also want to comment on our balance sheet as we enter 2021.

當我們進入 2021 年時，我還想對我們的資產負債表發表評論。

We're in a strong liquidity position with over $14 billion of cash on hand.

我們手頭有超過 140 億美元的現金，流動性強。

Our plan is to continue to deleverage, and we expect debt reduction throughout the year aligned with our scheduled maturities.

我們的計劃是繼續去槓桿化，我們預計全年的債務減少與我們預定的到期日相一致。

So we'll have further progress in reducing debt since our peak debt balance when we financed the Red Hat acquisition in mid-2019.

因此，自 2019 年年中為收購紅帽公司提供資金時，我們的債務餘額達到峰值以來，我們將在減少債務方面取得進一步進展。

This, together with the actions to focus our financing business, give us confidence in operating at a single A credit rating, while we continue to delever.

這一點，加上我們專注於融資業務的行動，讓我們有信心在單一的 A 信用評級下運營，同時我們繼續去槓桿。

In sum, we expect to continue our progress as a leading hybrid cloud and AI company in 2021 with an improving financial profile.

總而言之，我們希望在 2021 年繼續我們作為領先的混合雲和人工智能公司的進步，並改善財務狀況。

So with that, let's go to Q&A.

因此，讓我們進行問答。

I'll turn it back over to Patricia.

我會把它還給帕特里夏。

Thank you.

謝謝你。

Before we begin the Q&A with Arvind and Jim, I'd like to mention a couple of items.

在我們開始與 Arvind 和 Jim 進行問答之前，我想提幾點。

First, we've included supplemental information for the quarter and the year at the end of the presentation.

首先，我們在演示文稿結束時包含了季度和年度的補充信息。

(Operator Instructions) Operator, let's please open it up for questions.

（操作員說明）操作員，讓我們打開它來提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Wamsi Mohan from Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的Wamsi Mohan。

Arvind, I was hoping you might be able to double-click a bit on your comments on the software turnaround.

Arvind，我希望您可以雙擊您對軟件周轉的評論。

Realizing you had a tough compare in transaction processing, you still had Cognitive Apps decline.

意識到您在交易處理方面有一個艱難的比較，您仍然讓認知應用程序下降。

What specifically is being done to turn that business around to growth as we get into 2022?

隨著我們進入 2022 年，具體採取了哪些措施來使該業務實現增長？

And what are the assets that will drive the growth there?

哪些資產將推動那裡的增長？

And if I could, Jim, could you just bridge the $12 billion to $13 billion in free cash flow in '22 versus the $10.8 billion?

如果可以的話，吉姆，你能把 22 年 120 億美元的自由現金流與 108 億美元的自由現金流聯繫起來嗎？

It seems if you hit the mid-single-digit growth rate there, that's an incremental maybe $3 billion in revenues versus the $1 billion to $2 billion in incremental cash flow, which seems like very high cash flow margins.

似乎如果你在那里達到中個位數的增長率，那麼收入可能增加 30 億美元，而現金流量增加 10 億到 20 億美元，這似乎是非常高的現金流利潤率。

So if you could clarify that bridge?

所以，如果你能澄清那座橋？

Wamsi, thanks for the question.

瓦姆西，謝謝你的提問。

Look, we expect to see improving software performance through the year, both in '21 and headed into '22.

看，我們希望在 21 年和 22 年都能看到全年軟件性能的提高。

As Jim said in the prepared remarks, a lot of the shortfall in software came from the TPP segment.

正如吉姆在準備好的評論中所說，軟件方面的許多不足來自 TPP 部分。

And in that segment, as you know, we intend to have very large deals that tend to come in the fourth quarter.

如您所知，在該細分市場中，我們打算進行非常大的交易，這些交易往往會在第四季度進行。

So it was somewhat unique in 2020, and that is not something we expect to see at the same scale going forward.

因此，它在 2020 年有些獨特，這不是我們期望在未來以相同規模看到的情況。

So the headwinds in some sense will reduce because of the reduction in that aspect.

因此，由於這方面的減少，某種意義上的逆風會減少。

Then on the positive side, we expect to see continued Red Hat growth.

然後從積極的方面來看，我們預計紅帽會繼續增長。

We expect to see continued growth from our Cloud Paks.

我們預計我們的 Cloud Paks 將繼續增長。

We expect to see continued growth as the sales force changes we have made drive a much greater focus across IBM on this part of the portfolio, both in Cloud & Data Platform, and on the AI applications.

我們希望看到持續增長，因為我們所做的銷售隊伍變化推動 IBM 更加關注這部分產品組合，包括雲和數據平台以及人工智能應用程序。

We also expect to see, as Jim mentioned, that as the security and the IoT assets within the applications become larger and larger with the growth there, they will more than compensate for some of the other pieces that may not be so big because just the law of compounding is going to get us there.

正如 Jim 所提到的，我們還希望看到，隨著應用程序中的安全性和物聯網資產隨著那裡的增長而變得越來越大，它們將足以彌補其他一些可能不是那麼大的部分，因為只是複利法則會讓我們到達那裡。

And lastly, remember, other than all the organic actions, we are also doing inorganic actions.

最後，請記住，除了所有有機的行為，我們也在做無機的行為。

You saw us announce both Instana and StackRox in the last couple of months.

您看到我們在過去幾個月宣布了 Instana 和 StackRox。

And these and other future acquisitions would also drive growth because they help the entire portfolio, not just acquired pieces.

這些和其他未來的收購也將推動增長，因為它們有助於整個投資組合，而不僅僅是收購的部分。

Jim?

吉姆?

Okay.

好的。

Thanks, Arvind, and thanks, Wamsi, for the question.

謝謝 Arvind，謝謝 Wamsi 的提問。

Very important as many of our investors have been asking us about the free cash flow generation profile of this company.

非常重要，因為我們的許多投資者一直在向我們詢問這家公司的自由現金流產生情況。

Why?

為什麼？

It's because it's going to be the engine to fuel the investments for that growth that we committed here in 2021.

這是因為它將成為推動我們在 2021 年承諾的增長投資的引擎。

But let me take a step back because I think it's important to understand coming off of a strong finish on free cash flow in 2020 delivering $10.8 billion, 143% free cash flow realization, first, how does that bridge go to 2021 at $11 billion to $12 billion of adjusted free cash flow.

但讓我退後一步，因為我認為重要的是要了解 2020 年自由現金流強勁完成，實現 108 億美元，實現 143% 的自由現金流，首先，這座橋如何以 110 億美元通向 2021 年120億美元的調整後自由現金流。

And then I think you'll see how we then continue to accelerate that to $12 billion to $13 billion overall.

然後我想你會看到我們如何繼續將其整體加速到 120 億到 130 億美元。

So as we said in the prepared remarks, first, revenue growth, which is going to be essential here.

因此，正如我們在準備好的評論中所說，首先是收入增長，這在這里至關重要。

Second, and I think you've seen this over the last couple of years, we have driven the productivity and operating leverage out of this business with our gross margin expansions, I think, now for about 8 to 10 quarters in a row.

其次，我認為您在過去幾年中已經看到了這一點，我們已經連續 8 到 10 個季度通過我們的毛利率擴張推動了這項業務的生產力和運營槓桿。

So not only are we going to now turn around to revenue growth, we're going to get operating leverage.

因此，我們現在不僅要轉向收入增長，還要獲得運營槓桿。

And that's going to deliver a significant amount of operating profit contribution to free cash flow, coupled with Red Hat being accretive net of interest expense already as we achieve our accretion in third quarter.

這將為自由現金流帶來可觀的營業利潤貢獻，再加上紅帽在第三季度實現增長時已經在扣除利息費用後實現增長。

Now what's happening from 2020 to 2021?

現在從 2020 年到 2021 年會發生什麼？

We're going to get substantial operating profit, but we've got a big cash tax headwind in 2021.

我們將獲得可觀的營業利潤，但我們在 2021 年面臨巨大的現金稅逆風。

So while you're seeing nice growth from $10.8 billion to $11 billion to $12 billion, we're already overcompensating for $1 billion roughly of cash tax headwind.

因此，雖然您看到從 108 億美元到 110 億美元再到 120 億美元的良好增長，但我們已經過度補償了大約 10 億美元的現金稅逆風。

Now when you get to 2022, we're going to get that same level of operating profit contribution that has good leverage, but we have a much more de minimis cash tax headwind in 2022, which makes us very confident in our ability to give guidance at those levels for the next 2 years.

現在，當您到 2022 年時，我們將獲得具有良好槓桿作用的相同水平的營業利潤貢獻，但我們在 2022 年面臨更多的最低現金稅逆風，這使我們對我們提供指導的能力充滿信心在未來 2 年保持這些水平。

Our next question comes from Amit Daryanani from Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Amit Daryanani。

I guess the question really is on the GTS side and the spin of NewCo.

我想這個問題真的是在 GTS 方面和 NewCo 的旋轉。

The revenue trajectory on GTS, the drop was sort of notable, I think, it went down to 8% decline versus the 4%, 5% trend line for the last few quarters.

GTS 的收入軌跡下降有點明顯，我認為下降到 8%，而過去幾個季度的趨勢線為 4%、5%。

I'd love to understand from you, Arvind or Martin, what are you hearing from your customers?

我很想听聽你們，Arvind 或 Martin，你們從客戶那裡聽到了什麼？

I mean, do you see this as a reflection that they're perhaps pausing their decision until the spin is done or perhaps picking up calls from your competition as this is going on?

我的意思是，您是否認為這反映了他們可能會暫停他們的決定，直到旋轉完成，或者可能會在這種情況下接聽您的競爭對手的電話？

I'd just love to understand what's driving that dynamic there.

我只是想了解是什麼推動了那裡的動態。

And then, Jim, if you could remind me, when does the Form 10 get publicly disseminated, that would be great.

然後，Jim，如果你能提醒我，Form 10 什麼時候公開傳播，那就太好了。

Amit, so in terms of the client feedback, we have talked about that we are going to do a lot of high-touch treatment of all these clients.

阿米特，所以就客戶反饋而言，我們已經談到我們將對所有這些客戶進行大量高接觸處理。

These are really important clients for us.

這些對我們來說是非常重要的客戶。

As both Jim and Martin said, they are our most important clients in very important industries for the overall economy.

正如 Jim 和 Martin 所說，他們是我們在對整個經濟非常重要的行業中最重要的客戶。

As we have talked to all of the clients, we have, by and large, gotten very positive feedback.

當我們與所有客戶交談時，總的來說，我們得到了非常積極的反饋。

Over 98% of them are quite satisfied with our description of what will happen, both are in terms of their contracts, the service they'll get from us and the assured guarantee of access to technical resources, both from the new company and from IBM over time.

超過 98% 的人對我們對將要發生的事情的描述非常滿意，無論是在他們的合同條款、他們將從我們那裡獲得的服務以及從新公司和 IBM 獲得技術資源的有保證的保證方面隨著時間的推移。

As that plays through, we see that.

隨著它的播放，我們看到了這一點。

As Jim mentioned, and he touched on it very briefly, we do measure how our clients think of us.

正如吉姆提到的，他非常簡短地談到了這一點，我們確實衡量了客戶對我們的看法。

We call it Net Promoter Score measurements, and we are seeing that those have gone up, not down.

我們稱之為淨推薦值測量值，我們看到這些值上升了，而不是下降了。

So we feel comfortable that the clients will go through it.

因此，我們對客戶會通過它感到滿意。

Now all that said, maybe a few clients are going to pause on certain project elements given their own business.

綜上所述，考慮到他們自己的業務，也許一些客戶會暫停某些項目元素。

And so in that -- in the GTS business, clients are allowed to dial volumes up a little bit or down a little bit based on their own performance.

因此，在 GTS 業務中，客戶可以根據自己的表現將音量調高或調低。

That is built into these contracts.

這是內置在這些合同中的。

So given let's say what's happening in the overall economy, you see some of that play through in both directions.

因此，考慮到整體經濟中正在發生的事情，您會看到其中的一些在兩個方向上發揮作用。

And that is the large cause of that.

這就是造成這種情況的主要原因。

The other side of it, which is the new logos, gives us confidence that the performance should be on an improving trajectory going into 2021.

它的另一面，即新徽標，讓我們相信，到 2021 年，性能應該會處於改善的軌道上。

So with that, let me give it to Jim, both to sort of add a little bit more color on the financials there and to just to repeat what he said about the Form 10.

因此，讓我把它交給吉姆，既可以為那裡的財務增加一點色彩，也可以重複他對錶格 10 所說的話。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Arvind, and thanks, Amit, for the question.

謝謝 Arvind，也謝謝 Amit 的提問。

Just to put it in perspective, GTS $6.6 billion here in the quarter, to your point, down, what, 5.5% at actual, down 7.5%, give or take, at constant currency.

換個角度看，本季度 GTS 為 66 億美元，按您的觀點，實際下降 5.5%，按固定匯率計算，下降 7.5%。

It was though, up 2% quarter-to-quarter.

不過，季度環比增長了 2%。

So we saw nice seasonality and by the way, pretty consistent with what our normal 3Q to 4Q would be in GTS.

所以我們看到了很好的季節性，順便說一句，這與我們在 GTS 中正常的 3Q 到 4Q 的情況非常一致。

Now with that said, in addition to what Arvind had talked about, which is what we've been dealing with for the last 4 quarters or so, give the external economic environment with lower client base business volumes, we actually took, as I said in my prepared remarks, we took proactive actions to restructure some of our contracts to optimize our Managed Infrastructure Services business to get ready for the spin, which is what your second question is.

話雖如此，除了 Arvind 所說的，這是我們在過去 4 個季度左右一直在處理的問題，考慮到客戶群業務量較低的外部經濟環境，我們實際上採取了，正如我所說在我準備好的評論中，我們採取了積極的行動來重組我們的一些合同，以優化我們的託管基礎設施服務業務，為旋轉做好準備，這是您的第二個問題。

As we talked about on October 8, we are going to create value through focus in both IBM and in NewCo.

正如我們在 10 月 8 日所談到的，我們將通過專注於 IBM 和 NewCo 來創造價值。

And in NewCo, the focus is on getting the fundamentals of this business in terms of value.

而在 NewCo 中，重點是從價值方面了解該業務的基本面。

That's margin, profit and cash.

那是利潤、利潤和現金。

And with these actions, we will improve on the financial profile as we prepare for the spin-off, leading to, again, an improved EBITDA profile, approaching double digits, post-spin, a solid balance sheet targeting investment-grade rating and a strong free cash flow yield and dividend yield that should be attractive to a financial value-based investor overall.

通過這些行動，我們將在為分拆做準備時改善財務狀況，從而再次改善 EBITDA 狀況，接近兩位數，分拆後，以投資級評級為目標的穩健資產負債表和強勁的自由現金流收益率和股息收益率，應該對基於財務價值的投資者整體具有吸引力。

Now with regards to your second question on the Form 10, I think I addressed that in the prepared remarks, a lot of work being done.

現在關於您在表格 10 上的第二個問題，我想我在準備好的評論中提到了這一點，還有很多工作要做。

The complexity of this as we learn each and every day, Arvind talked about the client transition, and we're very pleased with where that's going with our new logo signings and very strong renewal rates.

隨著我們每天都了解到這一點的複雜性，Arvind 談到了客戶過渡，我們對新徽標的簽約和非常高的續訂率感到非常滿意。

But if you think about the legal, regulatory, financial, the carve-out work, right now, I think we're well on track to achieve what we said on October 8, which is the end of the year.

但是，如果您考慮一下法律、監管、財務和分拆工作，現在，我認為我們正在順利實現我們在 10 月 8 日（即年底）所說的目標。

And you should see the Form 10 sometime in the fall period.

您應該在秋季的某個時候看到表格 10。

Our next question comes from Toni Sacconaghi from Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自 Bernstein 的 Toni Sacconaghi。

If I just kind of stand back from the results this quarter, typically, your revenues are up $3.4 billion from Q3 to Q4.

如果我只是從本季度的結果中退縮，通常情況下，您的收入從第三季度到第四季度增加了 34 億美元。

That's the average of your last 3 years, and there's very little movement off of that average.

這是您過去 3 年的平均值，與該平均值相差甚微。

This year, it was $2.8 billion.

今年是28億美元。

So at least in my eyes, it looks significantly worse.

所以至少在我看來，它看起來明顯更糟。

And I understand there are some issues around transaction processing.

而且我了解交易處理存在一些問題。

I understand year-over-year comps, but this is a sequential change, which seems to be notably below trend.

我了解同比情況，但這是一個連續變化，似乎明顯低於趨勢。

And I hear your assurances around the current spending environment.

我聽到你對當前消費環境的保證。

I guess the question is -- and the elephant in the room is, how do you know that there isn't something more sinister afoot here.

我想問題是——房間裡的大像是，你怎麼知道這裡沒有更險惡的東西。

That there is an accelerated migration to the cloud that you are not -- IBM is not participating in or your -- particularly some of your software offerings in Cloud & Cognitive are not as competitive as you might think, and that's ultimately what's being reflected here.

加速遷移到您沒有參與的雲 - IBM 沒有參與或您的 - 特別是您在 Cloud & Cognitive 中的一些軟件產品並不像您想像的那樣具有競爭力，這最終反映在此處.

And I guess to that end as well, maybe, Arvind, you can directly address why the confidence in mid-single-digit growth in 2022?

我想為此，也許，Arvind，您可以直接解決為什麼對 2022 年中個位數增長的信心？

It sounds like at constant currency, IBM is going to be flattish or maybe slightly down in 2021.

聽起來，在固定匯率下，IBM 將在 2021 年持平或略有下降。

So what drives the 500 basis point improvement, which on a huge company like IBM, is really, really notable?

那麼是什麼推動了 500 個基點的改進，對於像 IBM 這樣的大公司來說，這真的非常顯著嗎？

How much of that do you expect to be inorganic?

你預計其中有多少是無機的？

Okay.

好的。

Toni, thank you very much.

托尼，非常感謝。

Arvind, I'll address the front-end piece, and then you could talk about the second part of Toni's question overall.

Arvind，我將討論前端部分，然後你可以整體談談 Toni 問題的第二部分。

Toni, you are correct with regards to the last 2 to 3 years, when you look at the sequential normal seasonality of our business top line, it's in the neighborhood of $3.3 billion, $3.4 billion.

Toni，關於過去 2 到 3 年，您是正確的，當您查看我們業務收入的連續正常季節性時，它在 33 億美元左右，34 億美元。

But I think you know quite well, and many of our investors know quite well, that sequential trajectory has been distorted by a couple of things.

但我認為你很清楚，我們的許多投資者也很清楚，這個連續的軌跡被幾件事扭曲了。

One, the Red Hat deferred revenue and acquisition; and two, a major mainframe product cycle, as you know, which is why 90 days ago, I think when you asked the question to me, I answered it on a 5-year CGR, and I was very specific, and that average is about $3 billion.

一、紅帽遞延收入和收購；第二，一個主要的大型機產品週期，如你所知，這就是為什麼 90 天前，我想當你問我這個問題時，我回答了 5 年的 CGR，我非常具體，平均數是約30億美元。

Now with that said, we delivered, to your point, $2.8 billion.

話雖如此，我們已經交付了 28 億美元。

And I think we've been open and transparent that we fell short against that expectation.

我認為我們一直是公開透明的，我們沒有達到這一預期。

And we fell short, specifically in software.

我們做不到，特別是在軟件方面。

If you look at the balance of our portfolio, which is the remaining 65% of the revenue profile of the business, we were pretty much well within and some slightly above, given our strong mainframe finish to the year-end.

如果你看看我們的投資組合的餘額，即業務收入的剩餘 65%，鑑於我們到年底的強勁大型機完成，我們的表現非常好，有些略高於。

And that software shortfall, as we talked about, was a culmination of the confluence of the wrap on the peak ELAs from last year.

正如我們所談到的那樣，軟件短缺是去年 ELA 高峰期的總結匯合的結果。

You, I think, all understand our ELA cycle, which has tremendous value to our clients and tremendous value to our financial equation.

我想你們都了解我們的 ELA 週期，它對我們的客戶和我們的財務等式具有巨大價值。

On average, those are about 3-year cycles.

平均而言，這些週期約為 3 年。

We had the peak cycle in 4Q '19.

我們在 19 年第四季度經歷了高峰週期。

We grew software revenue 10% off of that.

我們的軟件收入增長了 10%。

And underpinning that, the transactional volume in that software was up close to 30% overall.

支撐這一點的是，該軟件的交易量總體上接近 30%。

So we were in a trough year.

所以我們處於低谷的一年。

We knew fourth quarter was going to be the most challenging quarter all year long, and we've been talking about that.

我們知道第四季度將是全年最具挑戰性的季度，我們一直在談論這個問題。

Now it's really the confluence of, one, that peak cycle wrap, which we knew about because our volumes came in pretty much what we expected.

現在，它實際上是一個高峰週期包裹的匯合點，我們知道這一點，因為我們的交易量幾乎符合我們的預期。

But what you're seeing to the second part of your question is, yes, is there shifts that are moving to the cloud?

但是，您對問題的第二部分所看到的是，是的，是否存在向雲遷移的轉變？

Yes.

是的。

And by the way, I think we're capitalizing on that.

順便說一句，我認為我們正在利用這一點。

We got a $25 billion cloud base of business that's growing 20%.

我們擁有 250 億美元的雲業務基礎，並且增長了 20%。

And we've got continued acceleration in our hybrid cloud platform with very good performance in Red Hat, which we could talk about later.

我們的混合雲平台繼續加速，Red Hat 的性能非常好，我們稍後再談。

But the confluence of what happened to software is really given the uncertainty in the environment.

但是軟件所發生的事情的匯合確實是考慮到環境的不確定性。

Clients are reluctant to commit long-term duration of deals.

客戶不願意承諾長期的交易。

And that really hurt our -- what you would call an AUR or our deal value size.

這真的傷害了我們——你稱之為 AUR 或我們的交易價值規模。

Now there's some positives to that, which I'm sure Arvind will get into.

現在有一些積極的方面，我相信 Arvind 會參與其中。

Number one, we got shorter-term durations now, so we have a much higher ELA pool in 2021.

第一，我們現在獲得了更短的期限，因此我們在 2021 年擁有更高的 ELA 池。

Number two, we had a very strong, in fact, record renewal rates, which led to a record deferred income balance, $17.1 billion overall.

第二，我們的續訂率非常高，實際上是創紀錄的，這導致了創紀錄的遞延收入餘額，總計 171 億美元。

And even stripping out Red Hat, we had the strongest quarter-to-quarter deferred income and renewal rate in our core software organic business that we've seen in 10 years.

即使剔除紅帽，我們的核心軟件有機業務的季度遞延收入和續訂率也是 10 年來最強勁的。

I think that's a great instantiation of our clients committing to the value of our software portfolio overall.

我認為這是我們的客戶致力於我們的軟件組合整體價值的一個很好的實例。

So with that, let me turn it over to Arvind.

因此，讓我把它交給 Arvind。

You can address the second piece.

你可以解決第二個問題。

Thanks, Jim.

謝謝，吉姆。

And Toni, I'll address some of the software pieces, but you asked a question about the mid-single-digit growth in 2022.

Toni，我將討論一些軟件部分，但你問了一個關於 2022 年中個位數增長的問題。

So Toni, let me try and just deconstruct it a little bit.

所以托尼，讓我試著把它解構一下。

Red Hat continues to have very strong performance, mid- to maybe high-teens growth.

紅帽繼續擁有非常強勁的表現，中到十幾歲的增長。

And as it gets bigger and bigger, that's a bigger contributor to the total.

隨著它變得越來越大，這對總數的貢獻更大。

Second, GBS is going to return to pre-pandemic levels by midyear, and we actually expect it to accelerate from there.

其次，GBS 將在年中恢復到大流行前的水平，我們實際上預計它會從那裡加速。

But into 2022, we'll see better growth from there.

但到 2022 年，我們將看到更好的增長。

In systems, as you know, we are not going to see the product cycle dynamics as headwinds but as tailwinds going into 2022, albeit the absolute numbers are not necessarily that big.

如您所知，在系統中，我們不會將產品週期動態視為逆風，而是將其視為進入 2022 年的順風，儘管絕對數字不一定那麼大。

Our ecosystem investments that we are making, they benefit both GBS and software.

我們正在進行的生態系統投資，它們使 GBS 和軟件都受益。

And by ecosystem, I mean, both small and big partners that we work with who are pulling both services and software.

我所說的生態系統是指與我們合作的大小合作夥伴，他們都在拉動服務和軟件。

So when we see, for example, Salesforce, or Adobe, or ServiceNow or Workday, they all tend to pull a lot of our services work.

因此，當我們看到例如 Salesforce、Adobe、ServiceNow 或 Workday 時，它們都傾向於拉動我們的大量服務工作。

We also partner, by the way, with the other hyperscaling clouds, both Microsoft and Amazon, and that tends to pull a lot of GBS work.

順便說一句，我們還與微軟和亞馬遜等其他超大規模雲合作，這往往會吸引大量 GBS 工作。

On the other side, we are also partnering with a lot of smaller software vendors, and they tend to pull a lot of our software along with it.

另一方面，我們還與許多較小的軟件供應商合作，他們傾向於將我們的很多軟件一起拉出來。

So that is there.

所以就在那裡。

Now you asked about the inorganic and organic.

現在你問無機和有機。

I'll call it, the business as usual in organic is included in my mid-single-digit assessment.

我會這樣稱呼它，有機行業的常規業務包含在我的中個位數評估中。

So by business as usual, it's just what we do.

因此，一切照舊，這正是我們所做的。

You've seen us do this for the last 3 quarters now.

您已經看到我們在過去 3 個季度中這樣做了。

So deals like that would be included.

因此，將包括這樣的交易。

And that -- for example, we did Instana and StackRox in software.

那——例如，我們在軟件中做了 Instana 和 StackRox。

Now we did 5 others in services.

現在我們在服務方面做了 5 個人。

They're not very large, but they do tend to pull the overall business.

它們不是很大，但它們確實傾向於拉動整體業務。

That is what gives me confidence that as we get through all of this, we got 1, 2, 3 growth vectors and 1 kind of flat vector going into 2022.

這讓我有信心，當我們完成所有這些工作時，我們將在 2022 年獲得 1、2、3 個增長向量和 1 種扁平向量。

And that is what gives us confidence about the overall growth going there.

這就是讓我們對那裡的整體增長充滿信心的原因。

Our next question comes from Katy Huberty with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Katy Huberty。

Can you just clarify whether you expect revenue growth at constant currency this year?

您能否澄清一下您是否預計今年以固定匯率計算的收入增長？

And then you provided pretty specific commentary around the revenue trajectory and revenue growth on a reported basis for '21 as well as normalized free cash flow but you didn't speak to EPS.

然後你提供了關於 21 年報告的收入軌跡和收入增長以及標準化自由現金流的非常具體的評論，但你沒有談到每股收益。

So is there a reason that there's less visibility into earnings this year?

那麼，今年收益的可見度降低是否有原因？

And can you talk just broadly about what some of the headwinds and tailwinds would be on the EPS line this year?

您能否廣泛談談今年 EPS 線上的一些逆風和順風？

Yes.

是的。

So Katy, why don't I start on why we gave the guidance on revenue and on free cash flow.

所以凱蒂，我為什麼不開始為什麼我們給出關於收入和自由現金流的指導。

And then I think Jim will get into the details on your other parts of the question.

然後我認為 Jim 會詳細介紹問題的其他部分。

Look, I've been sort of clear.

你看，我已經有點清楚了。

I want to measure the company on revenue growth.

我想根據收入增長來衡量公司。

Revenue growth is the most important metric that I am focused on.

收入增長是我關注的最重要的指標。

And so we talked about the revenue growth, both for this year and for next year, which is unusual for us.

所以我們談到了今年和明年的收入增長，這對我們來說是不尋常的。

The second part, in order to get revenue growth, we need to be able to do investments.

第二部分，為了獲得收入增長，我們需要能夠做投資。

Investments are driven by free cash flow.

投資由自由現金流驅動。

And on free cash flow, it's a very clean number.

就自由現金流而言，這是一個非常乾淨的數字。

So you can see what that is.

所以你可以看到那是什麼。

And we've talked about that with complete transparency, both on what it is going to be and why it will grow also from '21 to '22.

我們已經以完全透明的方式討論了這一點，包括它將是什麼以及為什麼它也會從 21 年發展到 22 年。

That's also what we're going to measure our people on internally, and that will let then our investors know what we are measuring on.

這也是我們將在內部衡量員工的標準，這將使我們的投資者知道我們在衡量什麼。

So that's why those are the 2 numbers that we are focused on driving.

所以這就是為什麼這些是我們專注於駕駛的 2 個數字。

That's the numbers we're focused there on giving you so you could hold us accountable to those.

這就是我們專注於為您提供的數字，因此您可以讓我們對這些數字負責。

Jim?

吉姆?

Okay.

好的。

And Katy, let's talk a little bit about the revenue profile.

凱蒂，讓我們談談收入概況。

I think Arvind just answered the 2 metrics.

我認為 Arvind 剛剛回答了這兩個指標。

And by the way, I could tell you, we flipped the whole operational management system, Arvind spent a lot of time about the operating model changes, the actions he's taken on how we drive signpost milestones to deliver on those 2 fundamental objectives, which, by the way, after the third quarter, Arvind and I did an extensive outreach to many of our investors, and we got unanimous feedback on what those 2 measures should be, which is sustainability of revenue and operating free cash flow to fuel the investment overall.

順便說一句，我可以告訴你，我們翻轉了整個運營管理系統，Arvind 花了很多時間來研究運營模式的變化，他為我們如何推動路標里程碑以實現這兩個基本目標所採取的行動，其中，順便說一句，在第三季度之後，我和 Arvind 對我們的許多投資者進行了廣泛的宣傳，我們就這兩項措施應該是什麼得到了一致的反饋，即收入的可持續性和運營自由現金流來推動整體投資.

But let's talk about revenue.

但是讓我們談談收入。

So we talked about growth at current spot rates.

因此，我們談到了以當前即期匯率計算的增長。

You see in the supplemental charts, you see where the U.S. dollar has weakened.

您可以在補充圖表中看到美元在哪裡走弱。

Right now, at current spot rates, we expect the full year somewhere around 2 points of a tailwind overall.

目前，以目前的即期匯率計算，我們預計全年總體上會有大約 2 個點的順風。

Pretty unique position on where we've been for the last 10 years.

在過去 10 年中我們所處的位置非常獨特。

But underneath that, we did say that we expect the fundamentals of the business trajectory across our segments to improve, first half to second half.

但在此之下，我們確實說過，我們預計上半年到下半年我們各部門業務軌蹟的基本面會有所改善。

And that is going to be important because to an earlier question, that acceleration has to position us for an exit velocity to get into 2022 around having a credible path for a mid-single-digit growth which is what our objective is.

這將很重要，因為對於之前的一個問題，加速必須使我們能夠以退出速度進入 2022 年，圍繞著實現中個位數增長的可靠路徑，這就是我們的目標。

I would tell you, overall, we expect IBM RemainCo to grow both at actual rates and at constant currency.

我會告訴你，總的來說，我們預計 IBM RemainCo 將以實際匯率和固定匯率增長。

So that trajectory overall should give you a perspective right off the bat about where we should end go forward.

因此，整個軌跡應該讓您立即了解我們應該在哪裡結束前進。

NewCo, given where we ended in our backlog, we see improving trends but not getting back to growth.

NewCo，鑑於我們在積壓中的結束，我們看到了改善的趨勢，但沒有恢復增長。

Because, again, as I said earlier, we are focused on the fundamentals of that business, margin, profit, cash and the strong EBITDA profile to set it up with an investment-grade balance sheet to absorb and deliver a free cash flow yield and dividend yield overall.

因為，正如我之前所說，我們專注於該業務的基本面、利潤率、利潤、現金和強勁的 EBITDA 概況，以建立投資級資產負債表，以吸收和提供自由現金流收益率和整體股息收益率。

Underneath that, you can imagine our 2 growth engines Arvind talked about, software and GBS.

在此之下，您可以想像 Arvind 談到的兩個增長引擎，軟件和 GBS。

And by the way, both of them, we see growth accelerating throughout the year, software being driven by strong Red Hat.

順便說一句，我們都看到全年增長加速，軟件由強大的紅帽驅動。

Red Hat, as we talked about, we exited over $5 billion of backlog.

正如我們所談到的，Red Hat 退出了超過 50 億美元的積壓工作。

$2.8 billion of deferred revenue.

28億美元的遞延收入。

We already replenished more than what we acquired pre-acquisition.

我們已經補充了比收購前更多的東西。

And by the way, that backlog of $5 billion is growing mid-20s.

順便說一句，50 億美元的積壓訂單正在 20 多歲中期增長。

So the acceleration coming off the trough in third quarter up 16.

因此，第三季度的低谷加速上升了 16 倍。

We just posted plus 17.

我們剛剛發布了加 17。

That should continue to accelerate as we move through.

隨著我們前進，這應該會繼續加速。

And then GBS.

然後是GBS。

We exited our backlogs up.

我們退出了我們的積壓工作。

Our signings of small deals were up nicely and accelerated from 3Q to 4Q.

從第三季度到第四季度，我們的小額交易簽約量大幅增加並加速。

We got acquisitions we're going to continue to scale.

我們得到了我們將繼續擴大規模的收購。

Our book-to-bill exiting fourth quarter was 1.3, the strongest it's been in a long period of time.

我們退出第四季度的賬面出貨比為 1.3，這是很長一段時間以來的最高水平。

And we've got a nice backlog revenue run out in '21 that shows that acceleration, which gives us confidence that we can get back to pre-pandemic growth as early as the midyear.

而且我們在 21 年的積壓收入已經用完，這表明了這種加速，這讓我們有信心最早可以在年中恢復到大流行前的增長。

Our next question comes from Matt Cabral with Crédit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Matt Cabral。

I want to build on those last comments around GBS and just dig a little bit more.

我想在關於 GBS 的最後評論的基礎上再深入一點。

It looks like apps management was still the major drag despite a little bit of an easier compare versus the third quarter.

儘管與第三季度相比稍微容易一些，但應用程序管理似乎仍然是主要拖累。

Just wondering if you could unpack what's going on underneath there.

只是想知道你是否可以解開下面發生的事情。

And going forward, just how we should think about the potential of some pull-through from Red Hat-related work as you guys like to replatform and modernize some legacy on-prem apps.

展望未來，我們應該如何考慮從 Red Hat 相關工作中拉出的潛力，因為你們喜歡重新平台化和現代化一些遺留的本地應用程序。

And just bigger picture, the path back to growth for apps management and what that looks like from here.

只是更大的圖景，應用程序管理恢復增長的路徑以及從這裡開始的樣子。

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Matt.

謝謝，馬特。

I'll take this one.

我要這個。

To your question, Application Management Services overall is an integral part of our overall hybrid cloud platform thesis.

對於您的問題，應用程序管理服務總體上是我們整個混合雲平台論文的一個組成部分。

As Arvind talked about already and we shared even the prepared chart, that platform has an economic equation that has a multiplier effect.

正如 Arvind 已經談到的，我們甚至分享了準備好的圖表，該平台有一個具有乘數效應的經濟等式。

And we talked about what, for every $1 of platform, we get $3 to $5 of software, we get $6 to $8 of services, both IBM and even as we scale with our ecosystem partnerships, that we've accelerated over the last 6 months, they get into that return also.

我們談到了，對於每 1 美元的平台，我們獲得 3 到 5 美元的軟件，我們獲得 6 到 8 美元的服務，無論是 IBM 還是隨著我們與生態系統合作夥伴關係的擴大，我們在過去 6 個月中都在加速，他們也進入了那個回報。

But let's talk about AMS.

但是讓我們談談AMS。

We've been speaking about this for the last few quarters, there definitely is a secular shift we know it.

在過去的幾個季度裡，我們一直在談論這個問題，我們知道它肯定會發生長期的轉變。

A shift from on-prem enterprise application component.

從本地企業應用程序組件的轉變。

Clients are prioritizing stability of applications in this environment.

客戶在此環境中優先考慮應用程序的穩定性。

And we all know the reduce in discretionary spend components.

我們都知道可自由支配支出的減少。

But there's a flip side to that shift that's happening overall.

但總體上正在發生的這種轉變也有另一面。

And that's exactly where you went, which clients are accelerating their digital transformation and journeys to cloud.

這正是您去的地方，哪些客戶正在加速他們的數字化轉型和雲之旅。

And we participate in there.

我們參與其中。

Look at GBS' cloud business.

看看GBS的雲業務。

We exited the year with almost a $6 billion book of business, accelerating throughout the year.

我們以近 60 億美元的業務賬簿結束了這一年，全年都在加速增長。

We finished the year up double digits overall, up 11%.

我們全年以兩位數的速度結束，增長了 11%。

And AMS underneath that is up almost 10%.

而其下方的 AMS 則上漲了近 10%。

So a very big component of that is it's essential from a cloud transformation services as part of that hybrid cloud platform.

因此，其中一個非常重要的組成部分是作為混合雲平台的一部分的雲轉換服務至關重要。

Underneath that, what's driving it is application modernization work.

在這之下，推動它的是應用程序現代化工作。

That's where we participate in the full spectrum from advise to build to move and to manage.

這就是我們參與從建議到構建到移動和管理的全方位服務的地方。

The front end of that, advise and build, is predominantly a consulting-based play.

前端，建議和構建，主要是基於諮詢的遊戲。

Consulting's up nicely, and our backlog, 17%.

諮詢業務增長良好，我們的積壓訂單增加了 17%。

But as that journey continues, we'll start seeing AMS come back.

但隨著這一旅程的繼續，我們將開始看到 AMS 捲土重來。

And just a few data points for you.

只需為您提供幾個數據點。

Number one, with that secular shift to the cloud, we are capitalizing, as I said, AMS, up 8% in our total cloud book of business.

第一，隨著向雲的長期轉變，正如我所說，我們正在利用 AMS，在我們的雲業務總量中增長了 8%。

We returned AMS back in total to signings growth in the quarter.

我們將 AMS 恢復到本季度的簽約增長。

Our backlog improved 5 points quarter-to-quarter.

我們的積壓訂單每季度提高了 5 個百分點。

And to the heart of your question, 80% of our Red Hat and Cloud Pak placements are AMS incumbency enterprise clients.

您的問題的核心是，我們 80% 的 Red Hat 和 Cloud Pak 安置是 AMS 在職企業客戶。

So it has tremendous value in leveraging that overall, and -- which is why we think it's essential to have a differentiated value proposition for our hybrid cloud platform.

因此，它在利用這一整體方面具有巨大的價值，而且——這就是為什麼我們認為為我們的混合雲平台提供差異化的價值主張至關重要。

Our next question is from Tien-Tsin Huang from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Tien-Tsin Huang。

I think Katy asked about EPS.

我認為凱蒂詢問了 EPS。

I'm not sure if I heard in your answer.

我不確定我是否聽到了你的回答。

Any call-outs on EPS cadence first half versus second half beyond the $260 million in charges and normal seasonality?

除了 2.6 億美元的費用和正常的季節性之外，上半年與下半年的 EPS 節奏有什麼不同嗎？

I know you're not giving formal guidance, but I thought I'd ask anyway.

我知道你沒有給出正式的指導，但我想我還是會問的。

But on the revenue side, just thinking about -- I know you've said a lot again on revenue.

但在收入方面，想想——我知道你在收入方面又說了很多。

But if you're looking at revenue growth for fiscal '21, I know you talked about revenue growth in fiscal '20, but of course, COVID hit and the world changed.

但是，如果您正在查看 21 財年的收入增長，我知道您談到了 20 財年的收入增長，但當然，COVID 來襲，世界發生了變化。

So how was your outlook this year for growth different from this time last year in terms of your conviction?

那麼，就您的信念而言，您今年的增長前景與去年同期有何不同？

I heard some of the drivers, but just really here asking about conviction and visibility.

我聽到了一些司機的聲音，但只是真的在這裡詢問信念和知名度。

Tien-Tsin.

天真。

So maybe let me start about the conviction on revenue growth.

所以也許讓我先談談對收入增長的信念。

So look, from what we can see, compared to what we saw last year, which is why we did not provide guidance in 2020, or rather we pulled guidance back in April.

因此，從我們所看到的情況來看，與去年相比，這就是為什麼我們沒有在 2020 年提供指導，或者更確切地說，我們在 4 月份撤回了指導。

We feel that the economy, while there is uncertainty, certainly better than it was last year, so we don't expect to see anything worse compared to last year.

我們認為經濟雖然存在不確定性，但肯定比去年好，所以我們預計不會比去年更糟。

If anything, we talked about the second half being better because we expect as we get through that -- there is going to be more demand.

如果有的話，我們談到下半年會更好，因為我們預計隨著我們度過難關——會有更多的需求。

These projects are going to go forward.

這些項目將繼續推進。

And as we look underneath because also in the questions that Matt had about Red Hat and modernization, you can also see that people are signing up for bigger and bigger projects around modernization because they need to move on to their businesses also.

當我們往下看時，因為在馬特關於紅帽和現代化的問題中，你也可以看到人們正在報名參加越來越大的現代化項目，因為他們也需要繼續他們的業務。

There's only so long that you can belt tighten and not come out worse.

只有這麼長的時間，你可以係緊腰帶，而且不會變得更糟。

So they're getting past their belt-tightening, we think, somewhere in the next 6 months.

因此，我們認為，在未來 6 個月的某個地方，他們正在擺脫緊縮狀態。

So that is why we have a lot more conviction.

所以這就是為什麼我們有更多的信念。

And that is why you heard Jim talk about the color from first half to second half and going forward into 2022, of an increasing trajectory, and he talked about that there is going to be growth for the remaining company at both current -- both spot rates and at constant currency.

這就是為什麼你聽到吉姆談論從上半年到下半年以及進入 2022 年的顏色，這是一個不斷增長的軌跡，他談到剩下的公司在兩個當前 - 兩個位置都會有增長利率和固定貨幣。

So that is why we have conviction.

所以這就是我們有信念的原因。

When we look at our underlying backlogs, when we look at our pipelines and we look at the demand profiles across those parts of the business.

當我們查看我們的潛在積壓工作時，當我們查看我們的管道時，我們會查看這些業務部分的需求概況。

Hence, the conviction in the revenue growth.

因此，對收入增長的信心。

Jim?

吉姆?

Yes.

是的。

I would just add to that, Tien-Tsin.

我只想補充一點，Tien-Tsin。

Thank you for the question.

感謝你的提問。

Again, as Arvind talked, this is a mindset change on how we want to operate the company.

同樣，正如 Arvind 所說，這是我們希望如何運營公司的思維方式轉變。

We've defined the strategy all-in, focused, aligned our portfolio, aligned our operating model.

我們已經制定了全面、專注、調整我們的投資組合、調整我們的運營模式的戰略。

Now it's about growth and it's about driving that operating free cash flow, which is going to fuel that investment.

現在是關於增長，它是關於推動運營自由現金流，這將推動投資。

So around that, we talked about the trajectory overall.

因此，圍繞這一點，我們討論了整體軌跡。

First of all, I should have mentioned -- I mean, as you could see in the supplemental chart, although we said revenue growth at current spot rates, you see that, that's predominantly a first half discussion.

首先，我應該提到 - 我的意思是，正如你在補充圖表中看到的那樣，雖然我們說以當前即期匯率計算的收入增長，但你看，這主要是上半年的討論。

It's about 3 to 4 points of tailwind in the first half, and that dissipates quickly in the second half overall, which is why the fundamentals of the underlying business by segment will have to improve, and we expected them to improve as we move through the year.

上半年大約是 3 到 4 個點的順風，而下半年總體上會迅速消散，這就是為什麼按部門劃分的基礎業務的基本面必須改善的原因，我們預計它們會隨著我們度過難關而改善年。

The other thing I will tell you, underpinning, because it's a fair question.

我要告訴你的另一件事是基礎，因為這是一個公平的問題。

As I stated, I think we've built the credibility over the last few years that we know how to drive operating leverage within this business.

正如我所說，我認為我們在過去幾年中建立了信譽，我們知道如何在該業務中推動運營槓桿。

So you can expect, we grew gross margins this year, I think, about 130 basis points, 70 basis points in the fourth quarter.

所以你可以預期，我們今年的毛利率增長了大約 130 個基點，第四季度增長了 70 個基點。

You can expect that we're going to continue to drive operating leverage in this business, and we'll have margin expansion in '21.

您可以期待我們將繼續推動該業務的運營槓桿，並且我們將在 21 年實現利潤率擴張。

And second, the other variable that you always ask me and we talk about and we try to be very transparent underneath it is our tax rate.

其次，你經常問我的另一個變量是我們的稅率。

And while we operate in 100-plus countries around the world, the geographic product mix can impact that dramatically, tax structures, audits, et cetera, can change it.

雖然我們在全球 100 多個國家/地區開展業務，但地理產品組合可能會產生巨大影響，稅收結構、審計等可以改變它。

From our perspective, we finished fourth quarter at what, I think, 10.4% from an operating tax rate.

從我們的角度來看，我們第四季度的營業稅率為 10.4%。

Pretty consistent, by the way, of third quarter and pretty consistent last year.

順便說一下，第三季度和去年相當一致。

And just given what I said earlier one on a book tax rate, we're going to have a headwind on cash taxes, I would expect our tax rate to go up a few points from that 10.4%.

鑑於我之前所說的賬面稅率，我們將在現金稅方面遇到阻力，我預計我們的稅率會從 10.4% 上升幾個百分點。

So it gives you a little bit more color underneath the revenue profile, the operating leverage and tax.

因此，它在收入概況、運營槓桿和稅收下為您提供了更多的色彩。

And again, we're just trying to change a mindset here.

再說一次，我們只是想在這裡改變一種心態。

Our next question comes from David Grossman from Stifel Nicolaus.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel Nicolaus 的 David Grossman。

Arvind, perhaps you could be a little more specific about what you were seeing in the legacy sales and marketing structure, which precipitated the reorg.

Arvind，也許你可以更具體地談談你在傳統的銷售和營銷結構中看到的東西，它促成了重組。

And maybe identify what changes you expect to be most impactful and why.

並且也許確定您期望最有影響力的變化以及原因。

And sorry for the 2-part question but Jim, perhaps you could reflect on whether there's -- or how much, if any, free cash tailwind you're seeing in '20 and '21 and '22 from the change in the IGF receivables.

很抱歉這個兩部分的問題，但吉姆，也許你可以反思一下，你在 20 年、21 年和 22 年看到的 IGF 應收賬款的變化是否有 - 或者有多少（如果有的話）自由現金順風.

David.

大衛。

Look, this is something I'm deeply, deeply passionate about, so I'm happy to talk about this.

看，這是我非常非常熱愛的事情，所以我很高興談論這個。

Look, every model has its time and then it's time to evolve.

看，每個模型都有它的時間，然後是時候進化了。

So we are evolving in reaction to client needs.

因此，我們正在不斷發展以響應客戶的需求。

And we had sort of operated with our, call it, a more homogeneous model that kind of went across all our segments, all our clients for a long time.

我們在某種程度上使用我們的，稱之為，一種更同質化的模式，這種模式在很長一段時間內跨越了我們所有的細分市場，我們的所有客戶。

So what are we doing?

那麼我們在做什麼呢？

There is a set of clients who do tend to buy, I'll call it, a lot of IBM.

有一組客戶確實傾向於購買，我稱之為大量 IBM。

Let's call them they need the integrated value of IBM.

我們稱他們為他們需要 IBM 的綜合價值。

We're calling that the first segment.

我們稱之為第一部分。

So in this first segment, we are also going to make extra investments in them being able to experience IBM technically.

因此，在第一部分，我們還將對他們進行額外投資，讓他們能夠在技術上體驗 IBM。

So we are using the term garages.

所以我們使用車庫這個詞。

We have people who go in there and work side-by-side with the client, well, virtually right now.

我們有人去那裡與客戶並肩工作，嗯，幾乎現在。

As well as being able to have a lot of focus on deployment, and we'll pay the people on deployment, not on selling.

除了能夠將大量精力放在部署上，我們還會在部署時向人們付款，而不是在銷售上。

So this first segment is going to have that attention with extra assisting.

所以這第一部分將在額外的協助下得到關注。

So they should see a lot of positive, and we expect to see growth coming out of our garages and our deployment manages.

所以他們應該看到很多積極的一面，我們希望看到我們的車庫和我們的部署管理出現增長。

Then there is a segment which is largely going to be channel ready.

然後有一個部分將在很大程度上準備好渠道。

So there, we do get, as Jim talked about, operational leverage, you don't need the other people.

因此，正如吉姆所說，我們確實得到了運營槓桿，你不需要其他人。

The channel is quite capable, but rather put more money into the channel and work with them to go after that.

渠道能力很強，但寧願在渠道上投入更多資金，並與他們合作去追求。

That's the other end of the spectrum.

那是光譜的另一端。

Then there is a set of clients, let's call it, between these 2 spectrums, they tend to buy mostly from 1 or 2 parts of IBM.

然後有一組客戶，我們稱之為客戶，在這兩個頻譜之間，他們傾向於主要從 IBM 的 1 或 2 個部分購買。

So they deeply value the specialists but they don't need the generalists who were covering them.

所以他們非常重視專家，但他們不需要覆蓋他們的通才。

So we're going to take that money and then pour it into more specialists who can then cover those clients.

因此，我們將把這筆錢投入到更多可以覆蓋這些客戶的專家身上。

So there is a first segment which does have an integrated value.

因此，第一部分確實具有綜合價值。

There is the top half of the second segment, which is going to be much more specialists.

第二部分的上半部分將是更多的專家。

You can think of them as being technology-led sales, by and large.

總的來說，您可以將它們視為以技術為主導的銷售。

And then there is going to be a large part, which is ecosystem-led, whether system integrators, resellers, distributors, et cetera.

然後會有很大一部分是生態系統主導的，無論是系統集成商、經銷商、分銷商等等。

We believe that this simplicity is going to drive a lot more outcome for us and for our clients.

我們相信，這種簡單性將為我們和我們的客戶帶來更多成果。

And by the way, we are also going to ensure that this is the structure that all parts of IBM have.

順便說一句，我們還將確保這是 IBM 所有部分都擁有的結構。

So it's not that different parts of IBM will have slightly different client segmentations.

因此，IBM 的不同部分的客戶細分並不會略有不同。

It's completely consistent across all.

它在所有方面都是完全一致的。

This, we believe, unlocks a few points of revenue growth.

我們相信，這會釋放一些收入增長點。

So you said impactful.

所以你說有影響力。

I expect that this will unlock a few points of revenue growth, albeit, let me acknowledge that it probably takes 6 months to flow through the system.

我預計這將釋放一些收入增長點，儘管讓我承認可能需要 6 個月的時間才能流經該系統。

David, let me address your good question around the IGF business and the tailwinds overall.

大衛，讓我來回答你關於 IGF 業務和整體順風的好問題。

First, just taking a step back.

首先，只是退後一步。

Within that overall IGF, consistent with our strategy, we are focusing this part of our portfolio directly aligned to be a captive financing aligned to our hybrid cloud and AI platform strategy overall.

在整個 IGF 中，與我們的戰略一致，我們將這部分投資組合的重點直接對準了與我們的混合雲和 AI 平台整體戰略相一致的專屬融資。

And you've seen us take a disciplined approach around both portfolio and financial management.

您已經看到我們在投資組合和財務管理方面採取了嚴格的方法。

What am I saying?

我在說什麼呢？

One, early in '29 (sic) ['19], we started winding down our OEM financing business.

一，在 '29 (sic) ['19] 早期，我們開始關閉我們的 OEM 融資業務。

Then in 2020, as part of prudent austerity measures, as we prioritized liquidity, we actually announced, and you heard that in the fourth quarter, selling our IBM commercial financing receivables as part of our risk mitigation, cash and liquidity management practices.

然後在 2020 年，作為審慎緊縮措施的一部分，當我們優先考慮流動性時，我們實際上宣布了，你在第四季度聽說過出售我們的 IBM 商業融資應收賬款，作為我們風險緩解、現金和流動性管理實踐的一部分。

So now let me bring this all back together because I think these actions that we've taken have resulted in a more focused and healthier financing portfolio with a very much better overall debt level and refinancing requirements that are not going to be needed overall.

所以現在讓我把這一切重新結合起來，因為我認為我們採取的這些行動已經導致了一個更集中、更健康的融資組合，具有更好的整體債務水平和總體上不需要的再融資要求。

So if you look at the strengthening of our balance sheet, our liquidity position exiting 2020, we talked about $14.3 billion of cash on the balance sheet.

因此，如果你看看我們的資產負債表的加強，我們在 2020 年結束時的流動性狀況，我們談到資產負債表上有 143 億美元的現金。

We talked about $11 billion to $12 billion of adjusted free cash flow.

我們談到了 110 億至 120 億美元的調整後自由現金流。

We got about $4 billion to $5 billion in 2020 around leveraging and focusing that strategy about IGF.

2020 年，我們通過利用和關注 IGF 戰略獲得了約 40 億至 50 億美元的資金。

And I would assume probably something very similar to that overall.

我會假設可能與整體非常相似。

So when you take the power of those 3 buckets, $14 billion of cash, which I should tell you is about 2x the operating level that we need to run this company.

因此，當您利用這三個桶的力量時，140 億美元的現金，我應該告訴您，這大約是我們運營這家公司所需的運營水平的 2 倍。

So the excess cash there, the strong free cash flow generation and the IGF actions of $3 billion to $5 billion, let's call it, you got about $30 billion of firepower.

所以那裡的多餘現金，強大的自由現金流產生和 30 億至 50 億美元的 IGF 行動，讓我們稱之為，你擁有大約 300 億美元的火力。

Now that's a source of cash view.

現在這是現金觀點的來源。

Now we all know in use of cash view.

現在我們都知道現金視圖的使用。

What do we know?

我們知道什麼？

One, I talked about the $3 billion, which will be cash out the door with regards to the structural actions and the cash taxes based on the transaction.

第一，我談到了 30 億美元，這將是關於結構性行動和基於交易的現金稅的現金。

Second, we are very committed to our secure and modestly growing dividend policy.

其次，我們非常致力於我們安全且適度增長的股息政策。

That's about $6 billion.

這大約是 60 億美元。

And then third, we continue to plan to delever, and our normal maturities are a little bit less than $7 billion this year.

第三，我們繼續計劃去槓桿，今年我們的正常到期日略低於 70 億美元。

You add those up, you're about $15 billion plus.

你把這些加起來，你大約有 150 億美元以上。

So we've got firepower here that gives us the financial flexibility to continue to invest in our business, delever to get back to our targeted leverage ratios, and also support that secure and modestly growing dividend.

因此，我們在這裡擁有火力，使我們能夠靈活地繼續投資於我們的業務，去槓桿化以恢復我們的目標槓桿率，並支持安全且適度增長的股息。

So we've gone pretty long here.

所以我們在這裡走了很長時間。

Why don't we just -- Arvind, do you want to make just a quick comment to wrap it up?

我們為什麼不-- Arvind，你想快速評論一下嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Pat.

謝謝，帕特。

So we covered a lot today, so let me just make a couple of really quick comments to wrap this up.

所以我們今天介紹了很多內容，所以讓我做一些非常快速的評論來總結一下。

We are confident in our strategy.

我們對我們的戰略充滿信心。

We're taking the actions that will accelerate this change.

我們正在採取行動加速這一變化。

We expect to grow in 2021 with an improving trajectory through the year.

我們預計 2021 年將實現增長，全年軌跡將有所改善。

And with all of that, we will look different at the end of 2021 than we do today.

有了這一切，到 2021 年底，我們看起來將與今天有所不同。

I look forward to continuing this dialogue with you.

我期待著與您繼續這種對話。

Thank you, everyone.

謝謝大家。

Ivy, can I turn it back to you to close out the call, please?

艾薇，我可以把它轉給你結束通話嗎？

Absolutely.

絕對地。

Thank you for participating in today's call.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。

The conference has now ended.

會議現已結束。

You may disconnect at this time.

此時您可以斷開連接。