International Business Machines Corp (IBM) 2020 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Welcome, and thank you for standing by. (Operator Instructions) Today's conference is being recorded. If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time.

歡迎您，感謝您的支持。（操作員指示）今天的會議正在錄製。如果您有任何異議，您可以立即斷開連接。

Now I would like to turn the meeting over to Ms. Patricia Murphy with IBM. Ma'am, you may begin.

現在我想將會議交給 IBM 的 Patricia Murphy 女士。女士，您可以開始了。

Thank you. This is Patricia Murphy, and I'd like to welcome you to IBM's Fourth Quarter 2020 Earnings Presentation. I'm here with Arvind Krishna, IBM's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Jim Kavanaugh, IBM's Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. We'll post today's prepared remarks on the IBM investor website within a couple of hours, and a replay will be available by this time tomorrow.

謝謝。我是派翠西亞‧墨菲，歡迎您參加 IBM 2020 年第四季財報。今天與我一起出席的還有 IBM 董事長兼執行長 Arvind Krishna 和 IBM 資深副總裁兼財務長 Jim Kavanaugh。我們將在幾個小時內將今天的準備好的演講稿發佈在 IBM 投資者網站上，明天此時將提供重播。

Some comments made in this presentation may be considered forward-looking under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements involve factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially. Additional information about these factors is included in the company's SEC filings.

根據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》，本簡報中的某些評論可能被視為前瞻性的。這些聲明涉及可能導致我們的實際結果大不相同的因素。有關這些因素的更多資​​訊包含在該公司提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中。

Our presentation also includes non-GAAP measures to provide additional information to investors. For example, we present revenue and signings growth at constant currency throughout the presentation. In addition, to provide a view consistent with our go-forward business, we'll focus on constant currency growth adjusting for the divested businesses for the impacted lines of total revenue, cloud and our geographic performance. We have provided reconciliation charts for these and other non-GAAP measures at the end of the presentation and in the 8-K submitted to the SEC.

我們的演示還包括非公認會計準則指標，以便向投資者提供更多資訊。例如，我們在整個演示過程中以固定貨幣呈現收入和簽約成長。此外，為了提供與我們未來業務一致的觀點，我們將專注於固定貨幣成長，並根據受影響的總收入、雲端和地理表現的剝離業務進行調整。我們在演示結束時以及提交給美國證券交易委員會的 8-K 文件中提供了這些和其他非 GAAP 指標的對帳圖表。

So with that, I'll turn the call over to Arvind.

因此，我將把電話轉給 Arvind。

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining today, and I'm pleased to be speaking with the investment community again. Over the next 15 minutes, I'll talk about where we stand in the execution of our strategy as we begin 2021 and how we are running the company to align with the strategy. I'll provide a perspective on the current environment and our results. Then in the spirit of being as transparent with you as possible, I will speak to our expectations for the next 2 years. Jim Kavanaugh will then cover the quarter, give more detail on the separation process for our Managed Infrastructure Services business. I've also asked Martin Schroeter to join us to make a few comments as the recently named CEO of this business. Jim will conclude with additional color on our 2021 expectations, and then Jim and I will take your questions. I'd ask you to please bear with us if we go slightly longer than usual on this call.

大家好。感謝大家今天的參與，我很高興能再次與投資界人士交談。在接下來的 15 分鐘內，我將談談我們在 2021 年開始執行策略的進展情況，以及我們如何經營公司以配合該策略。我將對當前環境和我們的成果提供一個看法。然後，本著盡可能透明的精神，我將談談我們對未來兩年的期望。吉姆·卡瓦諾 (Jim Kavanaugh) 隨後將介紹本季度的情況，並詳細介紹我們的託管基礎設施服務業務的分離過程。我還邀請了馬丁·施羅特（Martin Schroeter）作為該公司新任首席執行官來與我們一起發表一些評論。吉姆將對我們的 2021 年期望進行進一步闡述，然後吉姆和我將回答大家的問題。如果這次通話時間比平常稍長一些，請您耐心等待。

When I was appointed CEO in April, I laid out my approach to growing the value of the company which is straightforward. We will significantly increase our focus on our hybrid cloud and AI capabilities, the 2 most important transformational journeys for our clients. In the 9 months since then, we have taken a series of important actions to redefine our future as a hybrid cloud platform and AI company. This is where we are focusing the bulk of our efforts, time and investments.

當我在四月被任命為執行長時，我闡述了提升公司價值的簡單方法。我們將更加關注混合雲和人工智慧能力，這是我們的客戶最重要的兩個轉型之旅。此後的9個月裡，我們採取了一系列重要行動，重新定義我們作為混合雲平台和人工智慧公司的未來。這是我們集中大部分精力、時間和投資的地方。

In spite of the many challenges in 2020, we have made good progress. In 2021, and we believe you will see that progress showing up in our results. With that said, we know it's not necessarily going to be a straight line. The operating environment remains difficult because of what clients are experiencing at the moment. We can see that in the quarter just past. Our revenue was slightly behind typical seasonality, but we finished strong in free cash flow, which is important as it's the fuel for investments.

儘管2020年面臨諸多挑戰，但我們仍取得了良好的進展。到 2021 年，我們相信您會在我們的成果中看到進步。話雖如此，我們知道它不一定是一條直線。由於客戶目前所經歷的情況，經營環境依然困難。我們可以在剛剛過去的一個季度看到這一點。我們的收入略微落後於典型的季節性，但我們的自由現金流表現強勁，這很重要，因為它是投資的動力。

Our performance reflects the fact that our clients continue to deal with the effects of the pandemic and broader uncertainty of the macro environment. This puts additional pressure on larger software transactions this quarter and project delays in some services engagements.

我們的業績反映出，我們的客戶仍在持續應對疫情的影響以及宏觀環境更廣泛的不確定性。這給本季較大的軟體交易帶來了額外的壓力，並導致一些服務項目延期。

Our revenue growth was also impacted by IBM-specific headwinds of our product cycle and compare challenges. Notwithstanding the short-term market dynamics, we believe we have the plans in place and the focus inside the business to be able to grow in 2021.

我們的收入成長也受到 IBM 產品週期和比較挑戰的特定不利因素的影響。儘管短期市場動態如此，但我們相信我們已經制定了計劃，並將重點放在業務上，以便能夠在 2021 年實現成長。

That said, in the midst of all this, I'm seeing an ever greater need from clients to accelerate their digital transformation, and this bodes very well for us now and over the long term. As I've told you before, the opportunity in hybrid cloud and AI is enormous. In fact, we see the hybrid cloud opportunity at $1 trillion, with less than 25% of workloads having moved to the cloud so far.

話雖如此，在這一切之中，我看到客戶對加速數位轉型的需求越來越大，這對我們現在和長遠來說都是一個好兆頭。正如我之前告訴你的，混合雲和人工智慧的機會是巨大的。事實上，我們認為混合雲的商機價值達 1 兆美元，但迄今為止只有不到 25% 的工作負載轉移到了雲端。

Our approach is platform centric. Linux, along with containers and Kubernetes, provides the foundation of our hybrid cloud platform. And Red Hat OpenShift is the core product that captures all this and more. Our hybrid cloud approach is also differentiated by a vast software portfolio, modernized to run cloud-native, and our GBS expertise which plays a key role in driving consumption and is currently helping hundreds of major clients on their own hybrid cloud journeys.

我們的方法是以平台為中心的。Linux 與容器和 Kubernetes 一起構成了我們的混合雲平台的基礎。Red Hat OpenShift 是涵蓋所有這些以及更多功能的核心產品。我們的混合雲方法還具有以下特點：擁有龐大的軟體組合，經過現代化改造，可運行雲原生；我們的 GBS 專業知識在推動消費方面發揮著關鍵作用，目前正在幫助數百個主要客戶實現他們自己的混合雲之旅。

With this foundation in place, we are successfully leveraging Red Hat as a unique platform to address what our global, complex and highly regulated clients need. A hybrid cloud platform that is open, flexible and secure. Our hybrid cloud approach allows clients to connect their back office to their front office to modernize mission-critical workloads, to build cloud-native apps and to securely deploy and manage data and applications across various clouds. We are confident that we have the right strategy for our clients and for IBM.

有了這個基礎，我們成功地利用紅帽作為一個獨特的平台來滿足我們全球、複雜且受到嚴格監管的客戶的需求。開放、靈活、安全的混合雲平台。我們的混合雲方法允許客戶將其後台辦公室連接到前台辦公室，以實現關鍵任務工作負載的現代化，建立雲端原生應用程序，並在各種雲端中安全地部署和管理資料和應用程式。我們相信，我們為客戶和 IBM 制定了正確的策略。

Let me comment on some of the proof points we have seen over the last few months as we execute on our hybrid cloud platform and AI strategy. First, to drive leadership and focus as a hybrid cloud platform company, a key element of this strategy is to win the architectural battle in cloud. And with our cloud foundation in place, client consumption continues to grow. We now have 2,800 clients using our platform, a number which has grown 40% over the last year. In the fourth quarter, clients such as Barclays, Walmart, GEICO, Airbus, Ford, ABB are all leveraging our hybrid cloud platform to accelerate their own digital transformation journeys. We're also making good headway in our focus on industry clouds which are designed to tackle the specific needs of mission-critical and highly regulated industries.

讓我評論一下我們在過去幾個月執行混合雲平台和人工智慧策略時看到的一些證明點。首先，作為一家混合雲端平台公司，為了提升領導力和專注力，該策略的關鍵要素是贏得雲端運算架構之戰。隨著我們的雲端基礎的建立，客戶消費持續成長。目前，我們有 2,800 名客戶使用我們的平台，這一數字比去年增長了 40%。第四季度，巴克萊、沃爾瑪、GEICO、空中巴士、福特、ABB等客戶都在利用我們的混合雲平台加速他們自己的數位轉型之旅。我們在行業雲領域也取得了良好進展，行業雲旨在滿足關鍵任務和嚴格監管行業的特定需求。

Following the successful launch of our cloud for financial services last year with more than 75 IS suites and SaaS partners, including Adobe, Infosys Finacle, Persistent Systems and many others, we launched our cloud for telecommunications in November. So far, more than 35 partners have joined our cloud for telecommunications. For example, Samsung is working with IBM and Red Hat to develop new user experiences for business. We're also helping major companies like Verizon, Vodafone Idea, Bharti Airtel and AT&T to transform their IT and telecom network operations.

繼去年我們與 Adob​​e、Infosys Finacle、Persistent Systems 等 75 多個 IS 套件和 SaaS 合作夥伴成功推出金融服務雲端之後，我們於 11 月推出了電信雲端。到目前為止，已有超過 35 家合作夥伴加入了我們的電信雲端。例如，三星正在與 IBM 和 Red Hat 合作開發新的企業用戶體驗。我們也協助 Verizon、Vodafone Idea、Bharti Airtel 和 AT&T 等大公司轉變其 IT 和電信網路營運。

Second, to be the trusted partner of clients for data and AI. The opportunity in AI is massive, while the current enterprise deployment rate is in the single digits. Clients are now at the point where they are moving from experimenting with AI to deploying it at scale. To seize this opportunity, our AI platform is focused on data, automation and security, and now includes more than 30,000 clients who have turned to IBM to unlock value from their data. We're helping clients across industries build intelligent workflows by infusing AI into their core business processes, such as hiring, supply chain and customer service.

二是成為客戶值得信賴的數據和人工智慧合作夥伴。人工智慧領域蘊藏著巨大的機會，而目前企業部署率僅為個位數。客戶現在正處於從試驗人工智慧到大規模部署的階段。為了抓住這一機遇，我們的人工智慧平台專注於資料、自動化和安全，目前已有超過 30,000 名客戶向 IBM 尋求從其資料中釋放價值。我們透過將人工智慧融入各行各業的客戶的核心業務流程（例如招募、供應鏈和客戶服務）中，幫助他們建立智慧工作流程。

When it comes to data and AI, trust is paramount. IBM is unique in that we make a hard commitment not to monetize or use our clients' data. We also offer the industry's strongest commercially available cryptographic technology. And we give clients the ability to retain control of their own encryption keys.

當談到數據和人工智慧時，信任至關重要。IBM 的獨特之處在於我們做出堅定承諾，不將客戶的資料貨幣化或使用它們。我們也提供業界最強大的商用加密技術。我們讓客戶保留對自己加密金鑰的控制權。

In the fourth quarter, clients such as Air Canada, Sprint T-Mobile, State Street and Humana used our rich data and AI capabilities to drive business outcomes.

第四季度，加拿大航空、Sprint T-Mobile、State Street 和 Humana 等客戶利用我們豐富的數據和人工智慧功能來推動業務成果。

As we look forward, we are also investing to develop and address future market opportunities, such as quantum computing. Quantum has the potential to unlock hundreds of billions of dollars of value for our clients by the end of the decade. To seize this opportunity, we have a road map to build 1,000-plus qubit quantum computer by 2023, and we have expanded our suite of quantum computers on which our clients are working today.

展望未來，我們也將投資開發和應對未來的市場機遇，例如量子運算。到本世紀末，Quantum 有潛力為我們的客戶釋放數千億美元的價值。為了抓住這一機遇，我們制定了到 2023 年建造 1,000 多個量子位元的量子電腦的路線圖，並且我們擴展了客戶目前正在使用的量子電腦套件。

I want to now spend a couple of minutes on a series of significant changes we are making to the company, most since just the beginning of October. We know that a platform-centric strategy requires a fundamentally different way of doing business. This is why our operating model is to be quietly but substantially reshaped. These decisive moves are all aimed at creating value through greater focus on our portfolio, our operating model and the needs of our clients. And as they take hold, they will help us to deliver sustainable, mid-single-digit revenue growth post-separation.

現在我想花幾分鐘時間介紹我們正在對公司進行的一系列重大變革，其中大部分變革都是自十月初以來發生的。我們知道，以平台為中心的策略需要一種根本不同的經營方式。這就是為什麼我們的營運模式要悄悄地但實質地進行重塑。這些決定性舉措都是為了透過更加關注我們的產品組合、營運模式和客戶需求來創造價值。隨著他們的任職，他們將幫助我們在分離後實現可持續的中等個位數收入成長。

To drive greater focus on our portfolio, we announced the separation of our Managed Infrastructure Services business in October. As I just mentioned, this month, we appointed Martin Schroeter as this new company's CEO. Martin has a unique understanding of the business, its global talent base and 4,600 clients. You'll hear from him shortly.

為了更關注我們的產品組合，我們在十月份宣布分離託管基礎設施服務業務。正如我剛才提到的，本月我們任命馬丁·施羅特（Martin Schroeter）為這家新公司的執行長。馬丁對該業務、其全球人才庫和 4,600 名客戶有著獨特的理解。您很快就會收到他的來信。

So much remains to be done. We are on track to complete the spin by the end of the year. We are working closely with clients to ensure a smooth transition, while we are also renewing business and signing new deals. We have a comprehensive project management office to establish the new entity and to optimize the business. I can tell you, there's a great deal of excitement among our employees about the opportunities ahead for this new company.

還有很多工作要做。我們預計在今年年底前完成這項轉變。我們正在與客戶密切合作，以確保順利過渡，同時我們也恢復業務並簽署新的交易。我們有一個綜合專案管理辦公室來建立新實體並優化業務。我可以告訴你們，我們的員工對於這家新公司未來的機會感到非常興奮。

To strengthen our hybrid cloud and AI portfolio, we have announced 10 acquisitions since I became CEO and 7 acquisitions just since October. This includes 5 in global business services, which add skills to help our clients with their journeys to cloud; Red Hat's first acquisition as part of IBM that add cloud-native security capabilities for OpenShift. Our investments in organic and inorganic growth and in our people will continue to be sharply focused on both hybrid cloud and AI.

為了加強我們的混合雲和人工智慧產品組合，自我擔任執行長以來，我們已經宣布了 10 項收購，僅 10 月以來就宣布了 7 項收購。其中包括 5 項全球業務服務，它們增加了技能來幫助我們的客戶實現雲端之旅；Red Hat 作為 IBM 的一部分進行了首次收購，為 OpenShift 添加了雲端原生安全功能。我們對有機和無機成長以及人才的投資將繼續專注於混合雲和人工智慧。

To accelerate consumption of our hybrid cloud platform, we are also rapidly expanding our ecosystem by adding hundreds of new partnerships with global system integrators, independent software vendors and major third-party software partners and also elevating the role of partners. We're investing $1 billion in our ecosystem so that our partners can play a much bigger role in fulfilling the many needs of our clients.

為了加速我們混合雲端平台的消費，我們還透過與全球系統整合商、獨立軟體供應商和主要第三方軟體合作夥伴建立數百個新的合作夥伴關係並提升合作夥伴的角色來迅速擴展我們的生態系統。我們正在向我們的生態系統投資 10 億美元，以便我們的合作夥伴在滿足客戶的眾多需求方面發揮更大的作用。

As an example, we recently teamed up with Salesforce to deliver a new strategic contact-tracing platform for the U.K. National Health Services to help them in their fight against COVID-19. Salesforce and IBM have also joined forces to address key challenges such as vaccine management using IBM's Sterling supply chain solution, and our blockchain-based digital health pass together with Salesforce's vaccine management and CRM capabilities.

例如，我們最近與 Salesforce 合作，為英國國家醫療服務體系 (UK National Health Services) 提供了一個新的策略接觸者追蹤平台，以協助他們對抗 COVID-19。Salesforce 和 IBM 也聯手應對關鍵挑戰，例如使用 IBM 的 Sterling 供應鏈解決方案進行疫苗管理，以及結合 Salesforce 的疫苗管理和 CRM 功能實現我們基於區塊鏈的數位健康通行證。

To simplify and transform the way we engage clients, earlier this month, we announced a new go-to-market model. The first aspect is that we have simplified our sales model by adopting a single consistent segmentation which will make it easier for clients to work with us and unlock a great deal of productivity. In addition, we are providing clients with a more technical and experiential approach with investment in presales garages that allow us to co-create with our clients earlier in the sales process. And we're ensuring our sales organization is fully incentivized towards our strategic growth areas. Finally, we're investing in and elevating the role of our ecosystem partners to deliver more value to clients.

為了簡化和改變我們與客戶互動的方式，本月初，我們宣布了新的市場進入模式。第一個方面是，我們透過採用單一一致的細分簡化了我們的銷售模式，這將使客戶更容易與我們合作並釋放出巨大的生產力。此外，我們還透過投資售前車庫為客戶提供更具技術性和體驗性的方法，使我們能夠在銷售過程的早期與客戶共同創造。我們正在確保我們的銷售組織充分積極地致力於我們的策略成長領域。最後，我們正在投資並提升生態系統合作夥伴的作用，以便為客戶提供更多價值。

Let me say a few words about the changes we're bringing to our culture. Since I became CEO, I've talked a great length about the importance of culture and the need to instill a growth and entrepreneurial mindset. As part of that, we are encouraging more business risk-taking and ensuring a higher tolerance for failure across the business. This should allow us to more quickly respond to clients, seize more opportunities and drive better business outcomes.

讓我簡單談談我們文化中正在發生的變化。自從我擔任執行長以來，我已經詳細討論了文化的重要性以及灌輸成長和創業思維的必要性。作為其中的一部分，我們鼓勵企業承擔更多風險，並確保整個企業對失敗有更高的容忍度。這使我們能夠更快地回應客戶、抓住更多機會並推動更好的業務成果。

I'm only scratching the surface of all the actions we have taken to sharpen our focus. As a result, we are running the company differently as we begin 2021. I'm convinced that all these changes will allow us to deepen our client footprint and open up new avenues for growth.

我只是對我們為加強關注而採取的所有行動做了一些粗略的介紹。因此，從 2021 年伊始，我們將以不同的方式經營公司。我相信，所有這些變化將使我們能夠加深客戶足跡並開闢新的成長途徑。

Now let me speak to our expectations for the next 2 years. All of the actions I've taken are designed to drive growth, and we expect to deliver sustainable mid-single-digit revenue growth post-separation, with strong free cash flow performance.

現在讓我談談我們對未來兩年的期望。我採取的所有行動都是為了推動成長，我們預計分離後將實現可持續的中等個位數收入成長，並實現強勁的自由現金流表現。

How do we achieve this? First, through the continued strong growth of Red Hat, which has grown 18% on a normalized basis in 2020 and will be an even larger contributor to revenue growth post-separation. Second, with improvement in the Global Business Services trajectory, we expect GBS to return to its pre-pandemic growth rate by the middle of the year. Third, by leveraging our expanded ecosystem to further contribute to both GBS and software. And we'll finally start to see the benefit from the investments we are making, both organic and inorganic. These will all contribute to an improving software trajectory as well.

我們如何實現這項目標？首先，透過紅帽的持續強勁成長，紅帽在 2020 年實現了 18% 的正常化成長，並將在分離後對營收成長做出更大的貢獻。其次，隨著全球商業服務軌跡的改善，我們預期全球商業服務將在年中恢復到疫情前的成長率。第三，利用我們擴展的生態系統進一步為 GBS 和軟體做出貢獻。我們最終將開始看到我們所進行的投資（包括有機投資和無機投資）所帶來的收益。這些都將有助於改善軟體軌跡。

In the first half of the year, we expect our results to continue to reflect some of our current challenges as well as our product cycle dynamics. And of course, all year, we'll be working on the separation of Managed Infrastructure Services. But these are not long-term trends in the business, and these headwinds will dissipate.

在上半年，我們預計我們的業績將繼續反映我們當前面臨的一些挑戰以及我們的產品週期動態。當然，我們全年都會致力於託管基礎設施服務的分離。但這些並不是業務的長期趨勢，這些不利因素將會消散。

In 2021, the significant changes we have made to focus on hybrid cloud and AI will also begin to take hold. The company will look different at the end of the year, particularly with the execution of the spin-out, but also with the operational changes to sharpen our focus.

2021年，我們專注於混合雲端和人工智慧的重大變革也將開始發揮作用。到年底，公司將會面貌煥然一新，尤其是分拆的實施，以及營運變革將使我們更加專注。

At a high level, in 2021, we expect to grow revenues at current spot rates, with better performance in the second half than the first half. This is the first step towards achieving mid-single-digit revenue growth post-separation. And we expect to generate between $11 billion to $12 billion of adjusted free cash flow. These are the measures we are focused on. This is where we stand today and how we will operate to achieve our growth goal. Jim will cover all this in more detail. Over to you, Jim.

從高層次來看，我們預期 2021 年以目前現貨價格計算收入將有所成長，下半年的表現將優於上半年。這是分離後實現中等個位數收入成長的第一步。我們預計調整後的自由現金流將達到 110 億美元至 120 億美元。這些是我們重點關注的措施。這就是我們目前的狀況以及我們將如何運作以實現我們的成長目標。吉姆將更詳細地介紹這一切。交給你了，吉姆。

Thanks, Arvind. I'll go through our performance and then wrap up with a perspective on how the actions we've taken in 2020 position us to deliver on these financial objectives.

謝謝，Arvind。我將介紹我們的業績，然後總結我們在 2020 年採取的行動如何幫助我們實現這些財務目標。

In the fourth quarter, we delivered $20.4 billion of revenue. We expanded our gross profit margin with a significant charge for structural actions that improve our go-forward position. We reported operating earnings per share of $2.07. We generated free cash flow of $10.8 billion for the year. And we have strong liquidity with a cash position of over $14 billion.

第四季度，我們的營收為 204 億美元。我們採取了顯著的結構性措施來改善我們的未來地位，從而擴大了毛利率。我們報告每股營業收益為 2.07 美元。我們今年創造了 108 億美元的自由現金流。我們的流動性很強，現金部位超過 140 億美元。

The fourth quarter is our seasonally largest transactional quarter. And I'll remind you that a year ago, we had a very strong software performance, and our first full quarter of z15 availability. We knew that given our product cycle dynamics and the pressure from the current environment that the fourth quarter of 2020 would be our most challenging in terms of year-to-year revenue performance. 90 days ago, we expected revenue and operating earnings per share to be in line with historical third to fourth quarter seasonality. In 2020, our fourth quarter revenue came in slightly below our typical seasonality, while EPS was at the higher end of the historical range before the charge for structural actions. And we had a good finish to the year in free cash flow.

第四季是我們季節性交易量最大的季度。我要提醒大家的是，一年前，我們的軟體效能非常強勁，而且 z15 在第一季就已上市。我們知道，鑑於我們的產品週期動態和當前環境的壓力，2020 年第四季將是我們同比營收表現最具挑戰性的季度。90天前，我們預計每股收入和營業收益將與歷史第三季至第四季的季節性保持一致。2020 年，我們的第四季營收略低於典型的季節性，而每股盈餘在採取結構性措施之前處於歷史區間的高端。我們的自由現金流在今年取得了良好的收官。

The challenging environment we've seen since March continued with the shift in clients' buying behaviors and priorities. Given the level of macroeconomic uncertainty, more clients tended to move towards shorter-duration engagements impacting our software revenue. But we did have a good IBM Z relative to where we're at in our product cycle.

隨著客戶購買行為和優先事項的轉變，自三月以來我們所看到的充滿挑戰的環境仍在繼續。鑑於宏觀經濟的不確定性，更多客戶傾向於短期合作，進而影響我們的軟體收入。但相對於我們目前的產品週期而言，我們確實擁有一款優秀的 IBM Z。

We also continue to see good demand in offerings that support our clients' digital transformations, and we're driving strong adoption of our hybrid cloud platform. Arvind mentioned, we now have 2,800 clients using our hybrid cloud platform. For perspective, that's more than 1,000 new enterprise clients since we acquired Red Hat.

我們也繼續看到對支援客戶數位轉型的產品的良好需求，並且我們正在推動混合雲平台的強勁採用。Arvind 提到，我們現在有 2,800 個客戶使用我們的混合雲平台。從長遠來看，自從我們收購 Red Hat 以來，我們已經擁有了 1,000 多家新企業客戶。

Red Hat continued its strong performance with normalized revenue growth of 17%. That's slightly higher than the third quarter rate driven by subscription growth. Strong subscription bookings contributed to over 20% backlog growth, and the Red Hat backlog is over $5 billion for the first time.

紅帽持續保持強勁表現，正常化收入成長 17%。這略高於第三季受訂閱量成長推動的成長率。強勁的訂閱訂單推動積壓訂單成長超過 20%，紅帽積壓訂單首次超過 50 億美元。

Global Business Services continues to drive adoption of OpenShift and IBM Cloud Paks. And over the course of 2020, we accelerated the number of GBS engagements using Red Hat technology with 260 engagements for the year.

全球商業服務持續推動 OpenShift 和 IBM Cloud Paks 的採用。2020 年，我們使用 Red Hat 技術加速了 GBS 專案的數量，全年專案數量達到 260 個。

We've discussed the economics of a platform model, with the software and services revenue multiple anywhere from 3x to 8x to platform revenue. Our full-stack cloud capabilities from infrastructure up through our cloud services generated over $25 billion of cloud revenue in 2020, which is up 20% over the prior year.

我們討論了平台模式的經濟效益，軟體和服務收入是平台收入的 3 倍到 8 倍。我們從基礎設施到雲端服務的全端雲端功能在 2020 年創造了超過 250 億美元的雲端收入，比前一年成長了 20%。

IBM is a high-value business, generating ample profit and free cash flow to invest for future growth and support our dividend policy. We again expanded our operating gross profit margin, up 70 basis points in the fourth quarter and 130 basis points for the year, with expansion across software, services and systems. This operating leverage at the gross margin level enables higher investment in innovation, in skills and an ecosystem.

IBM 是一家高價值企業，能夠產生充足的利潤和自由現金流，用於投資未來成長並支持我們的股利政策。我們的營業毛利率再次擴大，第四季上漲了 70 個基點，全年上漲了 130 個基點，軟體、服務和系統業務均有所擴張。毛利率水準上的這種經營槓桿使得對創新、技能和生態系統的投資更高。

Our fourth quarter pretax profit also reflects a charge of over $2 billion for structural actions to simplify and optimize our operating model and reinvest the savings to accelerate growth. This charge is $260 million or about $0.25 of EPS less than what we discussed back in October, driven by a few countries, primarily in Europe, with government restrictions on certain employment actions in the current environment. This charge did not have much impact on our fourth quarter cash flow. And we generated over $6 billion of free cash flow in the quarter and $10.8 billion for the year. Our free cash flow performance in 2020 was driven by working capital improvements and contribution from Red Hat, net of related interest. This was offset by increases in net capital expenditures to scale our cloud infrastructure and workforce rebalancing payments from previous actions.

我們第四季度的稅前利潤也反映了超過 20 億美元的費用，用於簡化和優化我們的營運模式並將節省的資金再投資於加速成長的結構性措施。這項費用為 2.6 億美元，或每股收益約 0.25 美元，比我們 10 月討論的少，原因是一些國家（主要是歐洲）的政府在當前環境下對某些就業行動採取了限制措施。這筆費用對我們第四季的現金流沒有太大影響。我們在本季產生了超過 60 億美元的自由現金流，全年產生了 108 億美元的自由現金流。我們 2020 年的自由現金流表現得益於營運資本的改善以及紅帽的貢獻（扣除相關利息）。這被我們為擴大雲端基礎設施規模而增加的淨資本支出和先前採取的勞動力再平衡支付所抵消。

We continue to have high free cash flow realization, which was well above 100%, as expected. We ended the year with a cash balance of $14.3 billion, which is up over $5 billion, while our debt was down $1.4 billion, with $4.5 billion of debt maturities in the fourth quarter.

我們的自由現金流實現率持續保持高位，遠高於 100%，正如預期的那樣。截至年底，我們的現金餘額為 143 億美元，增加了 50 多億美元，而我們的債務減少了 14 億美元，第四季有 45 億美元的債務到期。

Now let me turn to the segments, starting with Cloud & Cognitive Software. Revenue was down 7% in the quarter, and gross margin was up 20 basis points. This year has proven to be a challenging transactional environment, especially in the fourth quarter, which is our largest transactional base. As I said, we have particularly strong software performance a year ago, when revenue was up 10%. The fourth quarter of 2019 was the peak of our enterprise license agreement or ELA cycle, which renew about every 3 years on average. With the uncertainty our clients are facing in the current environment, we're seeing many of them opt for shorter-duration ELAs. This dynamic, in combination with the large seasonal volume of ELAs in the fourth quarter, pressured the fourth quarter software revenue performance. At the same time, our renewal rates for subscription and support improved this quarter. In fact, it was the strongest year-to-year increase in some time. This is evidence of our clients extending their commitment to our software solutions.

現在讓我轉到各個部分，從雲端和認知軟體開始。本季營收下降 7%，毛利率上升 20 個基點。事實證明，今年的交易環境充滿挑戰，尤其是第四季度，這是我們最大的交易基礎。正如我所說，一年前我們的軟體表現特別強勁，收入成長了 10%。2019 年第四季是我們企業授權協議或 ELA 週期的高峰期，平均每 3 年更新一次。由於我們的客戶在當前環境下面臨的不確定性，我們看到許多客戶選擇較短期限的 ELA。這種動態加上第四季度 ELA 的季節性數量較大，給第四季度的軟體收入表現帶來了壓力。同時，本季我們的訂閱和支援續訂率有所提高。事實上，這是一段時間以來最強勁的同比增長。這證明我們的客戶對我們的軟體解決方案做出了承諾。

In this environment, our hybrid cloud and AI solutions like Red Hat and Cloud Paks are resonating with clients. In Cloud & Data Platforms, revenue was up 6%. Red Hat delivered double-digit growth in both infrastructure and app development and emerging technologies. We continue to gain share in both product areas, instantiating the importance of our hybrid cloud platform and the Linux Foundation to our clients.

在這種環境下，我們的混合雲和 AI 解決方案（如 Red Hat 和 Cloud Paks）引起了客戶的共鳴。雲端和數據平台的收入成長了 6%。紅帽在基礎設施、應用開發和新興技術方面均實現了兩位數的成長。我們在兩個產品領域的份額都在不斷增長，這反映了我們的混合雲平台和 Linux 基金會對客戶的重要性。

Earlier this month, Red Hat announced plans to acquire StackRox, a leader and innovator in container- and Kubernetes-native security. This further enhances Red Hat OpenShift, the industry's leading enterprise hybrid cloud platform. Within Cloud & Data Platforms, we're also building out our integration offerings, bringing AI-powered automation across the portfolio through key partnerships and new innovation.

本月初，紅帽宣布計畫收購容器和 Kubernetes 原生安全領域的領導者和創新者 StackRox。這進一步增強了業界領先的企業混合雲平台 Red Hat OpenShift。在雲端和數據平台內，我們也正在建立我們的整合產品，透過關鍵合作夥伴關係和新創新為整個產品組合帶來人工智慧自動化。

During the quarter, we acquired Instana, an application performance monitoring and observability company. We also expanded our partnership with ServiceNow to develop a joint solution around Watson AIOps, an IBM solution which helps enterprises to self-detect, diagnose and respond to IT anomalies in real time. And we continue to enhance the Cloud Pak for Automation, which grew at a strong double-digit rate this quarter.

本季度，我們收購了應用程式效能監控和可觀察性公司 Instana。我們還擴大了與 ServiceNow 的合作夥伴關係，圍繞 Watson AIOps 開發聯合解決方案，Watson AIOps 是 IBM 的解決方案，可協助企業即時自我檢測、診斷和回應 IT 異常。我們持續增強 Cloud Pak for Automation，本季其實現了強勁的兩位數成長。

Our Cognitive Application revenue was down less than 2%. We had growth in security, fueled by our modernized Cloud Pak for security and services. This was offset by a weaker performance in solutions concentrated in industries more impacted by the current environment, like TRIRIGA, which is focused on commercial real estate. As expected, our software performance was most impacted by transaction processing platforms. Clients' prioritization of OpEx over CapEx was amplified this quarter, with our strong seasonal mix towards transactional revenue and the ELA dynamics I just described.

我們的認知應用收入下降不到2%。由於我們現代化的安全和服務 Cloud Pak，我們的安全能力得到了提升。但受當前環境影響較大的行業解決方案表現較弱，如專注於商業房地產的 TRIRIGA，則抵消了這一優勢。正如預期的那樣，我們的軟體效能受到交易處理平台的影響最大。本季度，由於我們的交易收入季節性組合強勁以及我剛剛描述的 ELA 動態，客戶對營運支出 (OpEx) 的優先性超過了資本支出 (CapEx)。

In Cloud & Cognitive Software, we remain focused on our hybrid cloud and AI strategy, and we'll continue to invest in our portfolio as we head into 2021.

在雲端和認知軟體方面，我們仍然專注於混合雲和人工智慧策略，並將在 2021 年繼續投資我們的投資組合。

In Global Business Services, revenue declined 5%, which was about 1 point of sequential improvement from the third quarter. And we had gross margin expansion of 260 basis points. Our book-to-bill in the quarter was strong, contributing to backlog growth for GBS. While there remains some market uncertainty, clients are looking to accelerate their digital reinventions by leveraging business transformation services built on hybrid cloud. Our offerings are aligned to this high-value opportunity with a clear focus on reimagining workflows using AI and modernizing the underlying application infrastructures through hybrid cloud.

全球商業服務部的營收下降了 5%，比第三季較上季改善了約 1 個百分點。我們的毛利率擴大了 260 個基點。本季我們的訂單出貨比表現強勁，促進了 GBS 的積壓訂單成長。儘管市場仍存在一些不確定性，但客戶希望透過利用基於混合雲建構的業務轉型服務來加速其數位重塑。我們的產品與此高價值機會一致，明確專注於使用人工智慧重新構想工作流程，並透過混合雲實現底層應用程式基礎設施的現代化。

We see this in our GBS results. First, our GBS cloud revenue grew at a double-digit rate for the quarter and the year and is now almost $6 billion annually. Second, our Global Process Services revenue returned to growth as we deliver efficiency and flexibility to our clients' processes by infusing innovative technology and redesigning workflows. And third, our consulting signings grew 8%, driven by advisory work for application modernization and enabled by our unique and experiential garage methodology.

我們在 GBS 結果中看到了這一點。首先，我們的 GBS 雲端營收在本季和全年都實現了兩位數的成長，目前年收入已接近 60 億美元。其次，透過注入創新技術和重新設計工作流程，我們為客戶的流程提供了效率和靈活性，我們的全球流程服務收入恢復了成長。第三，我們的諮詢簽約量增加了 8%，這得益於應用程式現代化的諮詢工作以及我們獨特的、體驗式的車庫方法。

In Application Management, our performance reflects a continued shift from traditional on-prem services to building and managing cloud applications. Our incumbency in Application Management creates the opportunity and trust to be the partner of choice for their digital journey. This GBS incumbency plays an important role in driving adoption of Red Hat's hybrid cloud platform. As I mentioned earlier, our GBS Red Hat engagements accelerated through the year. We had 75 engagements in the fourth quarter, with clients including BMW, Humana, Samsung Electronics, IKEA and Costco. And similar to last quarter, approximately 1/3 of our quarterly Cloud Pak revenue resulted from GBS engagements.

在應用程式管理方面，我們的表現反映了從傳統的內部部署服務向建置和管理雲端應用程式的持續轉變。我們在應用程式管理領域的職責創造了機會和信任，成為他們數位化旅程的首選合作夥伴。這個 GBS 職位在推動 Red Hat 混合雲平台的採用方面發揮著重要作用。正如我之前提到的，我們的 GBS Red Hat 合作全年都在加速。我們在第四季有 75 個項目，客戶包括寶馬、Humana、三星電子、宜家和好市多。與上一季類似，我們季度 Cloud Pak 營收的約 1/3 來自 GBS 業務。

To continue this momentum, we are investing in ecosystems, resources, offerings and skills. Arvind mentioned, we have announced 5 GBS acquisitions in the last few months. Nordcloud and Thales provide cloud-native development, multi-cloud migration and platform engineering solutions that advance our clients' cloud journeys. And 7Summits, a leading SalesForce partner; Truqua, a leading SAP partner; and Expertus, a leading digital payments solutions provider, are collectively at the center of our clients' digital transformations.

為了保持這一勢頭，我們正在投資生態系統、資源、產品和技能。Arvind 提到，我們在過去幾個月宣布了 5 項 GBS 收購。Nordcloud 和 Thales 提供雲端原生開發、多雲遷移和平台工程解決方案，以推廣客戶的雲端之旅。領先的 SalesForce 合作夥伴 7Summits、領先的 SAP 合作夥伴 Truqua 以及領先的數位支付解決方案供應商 Expertus 共同成為我們客戶數位轉型的核心。

Finally, the investments we have made in our delivery capabilities, such as our innovative dynamic delivery model, have resulted in improved delivery quality, which are reflected in our Net Promoter Scores and our gross margin expansion.

最後，我們在交付能力方面的投資，例如我們創新的動態交付模式，已經提高了交付質量，這反映在我們的淨推薦值和毛利率的擴大上。

Turning to systems, revenue was down 19% driven by product cycle dynamics, while our gross margin expanded 380 basis points. We saw the product cycle dynamics play out in IBM Z, power and storage. Power revenue was down at a level consistent with last quarter. And storage revenue was also down, driven by high-end storage tied to the IBM Z cycle.

談到系統，受產品週期動態的影響，收入下降了 19%，而我們的毛利率擴大了 380 個基點。我們看到了 IBM Z、電力和儲存產品週期動態的展現。電力收入下降的水平與上一季一致。由於與 IBM Z 週期相關的高端存儲，存儲收入也有所下降。

IBM Z revenue was down 24% as we've wrapped on a strong growth in the fourth quarter last year, when we were up 63%. 90 days ago, I mentioned that clients and sectors like banking and financial markets made purchases early in the cycle to manage through robust market volatility. While those in select other industries focused on cash preservation, elongating z15 adoption.

IBM Z 營收下降了 24%，因為我們去年第四季實現了強勁成長，當時成長了 63%。90 天前，我提到客戶和銀行及金融市場等行業在周期早期進行了購買，以應對劇烈的市場波動。而其他一些行業的企業則注重現金保值，從而延長了 z15 的採用時間。

We've made up ground in the quarter, and improved adoption in some of the lagging industries. IBM Z delivered growth for the year despite a second half wrap on the product cycle and within a challenging environment. This reflects the importance of this high-value, secure and scalable platform with cloud-native development capabilities. Based on this performance, we expect z15 to be fairly consistent with prior cycles. And looking back over a longer period of time, our installed base of MIPS is over 3.5x the level of a decade ago, with 60% of our installed base now in new workload areas like Linux.

我們在本季度取得了進展，並提高了一些落後行業的採用率。儘管產品週期已進入下半年尾聲，且市場環境充滿挑戰，IBM Z 全年仍實現了成長。這體現了這個具有雲端原生開發能力的高價值、安全、可擴展的平台的重要性。基於這一表現，我們預期 z15 將與先前的周期相當一致。回顧更長的時間，我們的 MIPS 安裝基數是十年前的 3.5 倍多，其中 60% 的安裝基數目前位於 Linux 等新的工作負載領域。

The systems portfolio continues to deliver critical and lasting value to our enterprise client base in support of our hybrid cloud strategy.

這個系統組合持續為我們的企業客戶群提供關鍵且持久的價值，以支援我們的混合雲策略。

Turning to GTS. While revenue was down 8%, we expanded gross margin by 70 basis points. We had strong contract renewals and added a number of new clients. As Arvind mentioned, at the beginning of October, we announced the spin-off of our Managed Infrastructure Services business into a separate public company, which we're referring to as NewCo for now. We are making good progress on that work and remain on track to complete by the end of the year. As we discussed in October, this process is complex and includes working with clients to ensure a smooth transition to NewCo as the world's leading infrastructure services provider; optimizing the business model to improve its financial profile; and executing upon the necessary financial, legal and regulatory milestones to enable the transaction. I'll give you some additional color on each of these 3 areas.

轉向 GTS。雖然收入下降了 8%，但毛利率卻提高了 70 個基點。我們續簽了大量合同，並增加了許多新客戶。正如 Arvind 所提到的，10 月初，我們宣布將託管基礎設施服務業務分拆為獨立的上市公司，我們暫時稱之為 NewCo。我們在這項工作上取得了良好的進展，並預計在今年年底前完成。正如我們十月份所討論的，這個過程非常複雜，包括與客戶合作，確保順利過渡到 NewCo 作為世界領先的基礎設施服務提供者；優化業務模式以改善其財務狀況；並執行必要的財務、法律和監管里程碑以促成交易。我將對這三個領域分別進行更詳細的說明。

First, from a client perspective, we are deeply engaged with our clients that make up the $62 billion of backlog, and they are strongly supportive. We are seeing client confidence in NewCo's long-term value proposition to manage and modernize mission-critical infrastructures. This quarter, we had wins at clients such as Dutch Ministry of Defense, PhoneGroup and Bankinter. In the fourth quarter, we signed 11 new logo deals, which is more than double the prior year and one of the highest in the last couple of years.

首先，從客戶的角度來看，我們與積壓訂單金額達 620 億美元的客戶保持密切聯繫，他們也給予了我們大力支持。我們看到客戶對 NewCo 管理和現代化關鍵任務基礎設施的長期價值主張充滿信心。本季度，我們贏得了荷蘭國防部、PhoneGroup 和 Bankinter 等客戶的青睞。第四季度，我們簽署了 11 份新標誌協議，比去年增加了一倍多，是過去幾年中最高的協議之一。

Our renewal rates of existing contracts this quarter were also at the higher end of our historical performance. However, while we had a strong pipeline as we entered the quarter with the announcement, as expected, some negotiations were extended, resulting in some deals moving out of the quarter.

本季我們現有合約的續約率也處於歷史較高水準。然而，儘管我們在本季宣布這一消息時擁有強大的管道，但正如預期的那樣，一些談判被延長，導致一些交易退出了本季。

Secondly, we are optimizing the NewCo business to have a leaner and more efficient operating model. We continue to take a disciplined approach to improving our margins and overall financial profile. As part of this, a considerable portion of the $2 billion charge for structural actions was for GTS. We also have taken steps to restructure existing contracts and further reduce activity and lower-value offerings. These actions impacted our revenue performance this quarter but contributed to the gross margin expansion of 70 basis points. All of this positions NewCo for an improved margin, profit and cash generation profile.

其次，我們正在優化NewCo業務，使其營運模式更加精簡、更有效率。我們將繼續採取嚴謹的方法來提高我們的利潤率和整體財務狀況。其中，20 億美元結構性措施費用中相當一部分用於 GTS。我們也採取措施重組現有合同，進一步減少活動和低價值產品。這些舉措影響了我們本季的營收表現，但有助於毛利率擴大 70 個基點。所有這些都使 NewCo 能夠提高利潤率、利潤和現金產生狀況。

Lastly, NewCo has an unparalleled operational footprint. It has approximately 90,000 employees and operates in roughly 115 countries. And as you know, Managed Infrastructure Services is an integrated business, not only within IBM but within GTS. We are executing on our detailed plan to achieve the milestones to create a stand-alone company. Today, we are working with works councils on employment terms, establishing NewCo's legal entities across the world, drafting the agreements, which outlined the ongoing relationship between IBM and NewCo and developing audited financials. We expect the Form 10 to be available in the fall, at which time we will conduct investor outreach. We will continue to update our progress as we move through the year.

最後，NewCo 擁有無與倫比的營運足跡。該公司擁有約 9 萬名員工，業務遍及約 115 個國家。如您所知，託管基礎架構服務是一項綜合業務，不僅在 IBM 內部，而且在 GTS 內部。我們正在執行詳細計劃，以實現創建獨立公司的里程碑。今天，我們正在與工會委員會就僱用條款進行合作，在世界各地建立 NewCo 的法人實體，起草協議，概述 IBM 和 NewCo 之間的持續關係，並製定經審計的財務報表。我們預計 10 號表格將於秋季推出，屆時我們將進行投資者拓展活動。隨著時間的推移，我們將繼續更新我們的進展。

This is a good place to pause and turn it over to Martin Schroeter, NewCo's new CEO.

現在我們暫停一下，將話題交給 NewCo 的新任執行長馬丁‧施羅特 (Martin Schroeter)。

Thank you, Jim. I'm delighted and honored to be briefly speaking with you today on IBM's earnings call as the CEO of NewCo, and yes, we are working on a name. When Arvind and I began talking about this role, he let me speak with all the teams who are working on it. And as I did my due diligence, it became very clear to me that I absolutely wanted to be a part of this. With the outstanding talent in NewCo, the nature of NewCo's work for the leading companies in every industry and the freedom of action or the mandate that NewCo will have, I could not be more excited about the future of this business.

謝謝你，吉姆。我很高興也很榮幸今天能夠以 NewCo 執行長的身份在 IBM 的收益電話會議上與大家進行簡短交談，是的，我們正在商定一個名字。當 Arvind 和我開始談論這個角色時，他讓我與所有致力於此的團隊交談。當我盡職盡責時，我很清楚我絕對想成為其中的一員。NewCo 擁有傑出的人才，其工作性質是為各行各業的領先公司服務，NewCo 還擁有行動自由或授權，我對這項業務的未來感到無比興奮。

Of course, as Jim noted, we have a lot of work to do prior to NewCo being a separate publicly traded company. And as we put all of that together, I'll tell you more of the story about what NewCo will look like. In the meantime, we do know what we have to get right in order to realize the tremendous potential we see.

當然，正如吉姆所說，在 NewCo 成為一家獨立的上市公司之前，我們還有很多工作要做。當我們把所有這些放在一起時，我會告訴你更多關於 NewCo 的故事。同時，我們確實知道我們必須做什麼才能實現我們所看到的巨大潛力。

First, we know that we must continue to serve our clients. These industry leaders, NewCo's clients, trust us to deliver some of their most important workloads in challenging environments, and NewCo will continue to do that. It's what our clients expect and deserve. It's always been NewCo's true north, and will continue to be. And over time, our clients will see our strong investments bring new capabilities into their environments to help their ongoing journey into a more digitized world.

首先，我們知道我們必須繼續為客戶服務。這些行業領導者，即 NewCo 的客戶，信任我們能夠在充滿挑戰的環境中交付他們的一些最重要的工作負載，而 NewCo 也將繼續這樣做。這是我們的客戶所期望和應得的。這始終是 NewCo 的真正方向，並將繼續如此。隨著時間的推移，我們的客戶將看到我們強大的投資為他們的環境帶來新的能力，幫助他們不斷邁向更數位化的世界。

Second, we must continue to invest and develop our teams. The teams our clients see and need every day. To our clients, our people are the face of NewCo, and they are the people who know how to make these complex systems work. So we'll build the right inclusive culture around client service, innovation and talent so our clients continue to see how our team shine brighter than any other.

第二，我們必須繼續投資和發展我們的團隊。我們的客戶每天都會看到並且需要的團隊。對我們的客戶來說，我們的員工是 NewCo 的門面，他們知道如何讓這些複雜的系統正常運作。因此，我們將圍繞客戶服務、創新和人才建立正確的包容性文化，以便我們的客戶繼續看到我們的團隊比其他任何團隊都更閃耀。

Third, and in support of the other elements of our business, we must establish the financial model for NewCo that ensures our long-term success. IBM has already provided, at a high level, some of the characteristics of NewCo's financial profile when it becomes independent, and we're working on the specifics now in order to give you a complete and clear view of NewCo's profile. But we know that NewCo's long-term success requires the right starting point. And we'll make sure NewCo has launched the right way.

第三，為了支持我們業務的其他要素，我們必須為 NewCo 建立確保我們長期成功的財務模型。IBM 已經從宏觀層面提供了 NewCo 獨立後的一些財務狀況特徵，我們現在正在研究具體細節，以便讓您完整、清楚地了解 NewCo 的狀況。但我們知道，NewCo 的長期成功需要正確的起點。我們將確保 NewCo 以正確的方式推出。

And of course, we must build a strong relationship with our owners and the broader stakeholder community. To that point, I look forward to discussing the opportunities we see and how we intend to capture them in due course.

當然，我們必須與我們的業主和更廣泛的利害關係人社群建立牢固的關係。至此，我期待討論我們看到的機會以及我們打算如何適時抓住這些機會。

As I said, I was not going to miss the opportunity to be a part of this with a sharper focus and broad freedom of action, we have a tremendous opportunity to drive client value and translate that into a compelling investment thesis.

正如我所說，我不會錯過以更清晰的焦點和更廣泛的行動自由參與其中的機會，我們有巨大的機會來推動客戶價值並將其轉化為引人注目的投資論點。

Now I'll turn it back to Jim.

現在我把話題轉回給吉姆。

Thanks, Martin. Now before the Q&A, I want to bring it back up to the IBM level with a summary of the actions we are taking and the resulting expectations for 2021. These actions span our portfolio, our operating model and our capital structure. After building a foundation in hybrid cloud and accelerating Red Hat platform adoption, we are now separating Managed Infrastructure Services to better align to our platform strategy and improve the financial profile of both businesses. At the same time, we are increasing investments, organic and inorganic, in innovation, expertise and ecosystems. We're investing in platform capabilities, including security and industry-specific clouds. We're investing in data and AI and in technologies like Quantum to create future market opportunities.

謝謝，馬丁。現在，在問答環節之前，我想回到 IBM 層面，總結我們正在採取的行動以及對 2021 年的期望。這些行動涵蓋我們的投資組合、營運模式和資本結構。在混合雲中建立基​​礎並加速紅帽平台的採用之後，我們現在正在分離託管基礎設施服務，以更好地適應我們的平台策略並改善兩個業務的財務狀況。同時，我們正在增加對創新、專業知識和生態系統的有機和無機投資。我們正在投資平台功能，包括安全性和特定產業的雲端。我們正在投資數據、人工智慧和量子等技術，以創造未來的市場機會。

As we bring these innovations to market, we're adding GBS' skills and expertise. We're making changes to our go to market to engage our clients in a more technical and experiential way. And we're expanding our ecosystem to drive platform adoption and broaden our reach.

當我們將這些創新推向市場時，我們正在增加 GBS 的技能和專業知識。我們正在改變我們的行銷方式，以更技術化和體驗化的方式吸引客戶。我們正在擴大我們的生態系統，以推動平台的採用並擴大我們的影響力。

And in the fourth quarter, we executed structural actions to simplify and streamline our business. These actions will improve the EBITDA profile of NewCo, address stranded costs from the separation and generate savings that will be reinvested to extend our position in hybrid cloud and AI and accelerate our growth.

在第四季度，我們採取了結構性措施來簡化和精簡我們的業務。這些舉措將改善 NewCo 的 EBITDA 狀況，解決分離帶來的擱淺成本，並產生節省，這些節省將用於再投資以擴大我們在混合雲和人工智慧領域的地位並加速我們的成長。

We have also taken actions to enhance our balance sheet and liquidity resulting in a stronger financial position. We have focused our captive financing business on IBM's hybrid cloud and AI offerings. We've exited OEM commercial financing and have entered into an agreement to sell our IBM commercial financing receivables. As a result, our financing receivables have declined from $32 billion to $18 billion over the last 2 years, reducing our external debt needs.

我們也採取了措施來改善我們的資產負債表和流動性，從而增強財務狀況。我們的專屬融資業務專注於 IBM 的混合雲和 AI 產品。我們已經退出 OEM 商業融資，並已達成協議出售我們的 IBM 商業融資應收款。因此，過去兩年我們的融資應收帳款從 320 億美元下降到 180 億美元，減少了我們的外債需求。

Looking at our retirement-related plans, as you know, we have shifted our asset base to a lower-risk, lower-return profile. At the end of the year, our plans remain well funded. Our overall returns in 2020 were well ahead of expected returns, and the funded status of our worldwide qualified plans was consistent with last year.

從我們的退休相關計畫來看，如您所知，我們已將資產基礎轉向低風險、低迴報的結構。截至年底，我們的計劃資金仍然充足。我們2020年的整體回報遠超預期，全球合格計畫的資金狀況與去年持平。

Bringing it all together, we feel good about the path we're on moving into 2021. And as Arvind said, we expect an improving financial profile throughout the year. For the full year, we expect to grow revenue at current spot rates. In the first half, we expect our results to continue to be impacted by the shift to shorter-duration software transactions as clients deal with uncertainty, and by our IBM Z product cycle dynamics. At the same time, we expect GBS to return to pre-pandemic revenue growth rates by midyear.

總而言之，我們對邁向 2021 年的道路感到滿意。正如 Arvind 所說，我們預計全年財務狀況將會改善。就全年而言，我們預計以當前現貨價格計算收入將會增加。在上半年，我們預計我們的業績將繼續受到客戶應對不確定性而轉向短期軟體交易以及我們的 IBM Z 產品週期動態的影響。同時，我們預計 GBS 的營收成長率將在年中恢復到疫情前的水準。

As I mentioned, we weren't able to execute the structural actions in all countries in the fourth quarter. We anticipate the restrictions will be lifted over the next several months and are planning to execute the remaining structural actions in the first half of 2021, which will result in $260 million of pretax charges.

正如我所提到的，我們無法在第四季度在所有國家實施結構性措施。我們預計這些限制將在未來幾個月內解除，並計劃在 2021 年上半年實施剩餘的結構性措施，這將產生 2.6 億美元的稅前費用。

Looking at our cash flows, we expect $11 billion to $12 billion of adjusted free cash flow in 2021. This reflects a year-to-year cash tax headwind of about $1 billion. But to be clear, this adjusted free cash flow does not include the cash impact of the structural actions or the transaction cost associated with the spin-off of our Managed Infrastructure Services business. For perspective, at this point, we expect to pay about $4 billion for these items over the next 18 months, with about $3 billion in 2021. As we look to 2022, we expect to build on this with adjusted free cash flow in the range of $12 billion to $13 billion.

從我們的現金流來看，我們預計 2021 年調整後的自由現金流將達到 110 億美元至 120 億美元。這反映出每年約 10 億美元的現金稅收逆風。但需要明確的是，調整後的自由現金流不包括結構性行動的現金影響或與託管基礎設施服務業務分拆相關的交易成本。從目前的情況來看，我們預計未來 18 個月內將為這些物品支付約 40 億美元，2021 年將支付約 30 億美元。展望 2022 年，我們預計調整後的自由現金流將達到 120 億至 130 億美元。

I also want to comment on our balance sheet as we enter 2021. We're in a strong liquidity position with over $14 billion of cash on hand. Our plan is to continue to deleverage, and we expect debt reduction throughout the year aligned with our scheduled maturities. So we'll have further progress in reducing debt since our peak debt balance when we financed the Red Hat acquisition in mid-2019. This, together with the actions to focus our financing business, give us confidence in operating at a single A credit rating, while we continue to delever.

我還想在進入 2021 年之際對我們的資產負債表發表一些評論。我們的流動性狀況良好，手頭上有超過 140 億美元的現金。我們的計劃是繼續去槓桿，我們預計全年債務減少將與我們的預定到期日保持一致。因此，自 2019 年中期為收購紅帽提供資金時債務餘額達到高峰以來，我們將在減少債務方面取得進一步進展。這項舉措，加上我們專注於融資業務的行動，使我們有信心在繼續去槓桿的同時，以單一 A 信用評級開展營運。

In sum, we expect to continue our progress as a leading hybrid cloud and AI company in 2021 with an improving financial profile. So with that, let's go to Q&A. I'll turn it back over to Patricia.

總而言之，我們預計 2021 年我們將繼續作為領先的混合雲和人工智慧公司取得進步，並不斷改善財務狀況。那麼，我們進入問答環節。我會把它交還給帕特里夏。

Thank you. Before we begin the Q&A with Arvind and Jim, I'd like to mention a couple of items. First, we've included supplemental information for the quarter and the year at the end of the presentation. (Operator Instructions) Operator, let's please open it up for questions.

謝謝。在我們開始與 Arvind 和 Jim 的問答之前，我想提幾點。首先，我們在簡報的末尾添加了本季度和年度的補充資訊。（接線員指示）接線員，請讓我們開始提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Wamsi Mohan from Bank of America.

（操作員指示）我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Wamsi Mohan。

Arvind, I was hoping you might be able to double-click a bit on your comments on the software turnaround. Realizing you had a tough compare in transaction processing, you still had Cognitive Apps decline. What specifically is being done to turn that business around to growth as we get into 2022? And what are the assets that will drive the growth there?

Arvind，我希望您能夠稍微談談您對軟體轉型的評論。意識到你在交易處理方面有一個艱難的比較，但你的認知應用程式仍然在下降。進入 2022 年，我們具體採取了哪些措施來扭轉業務成長？那麼哪些資產將推動那裡的成長？

And if I could, Jim, could you just bridge the $12 billion to $13 billion in free cash flow in '22 versus the $10.8 billion? It seems if you hit the mid-single-digit growth rate there, that's an incremental maybe $3 billion in revenues versus the $1 billion to $2 billion in incremental cash flow, which seems like very high cash flow margins. So if you could clarify that bridge?

如果可以的話，吉姆，您能否將 2022 年的自由現金流從 108 億美元縮小到 120 億美元至 130 億美元？看起來，如果達到中等個位數的成長率，那麼收入可能會增加 30 億美元，而現金流則會增加 10 億到 20 億美元，這似乎是非常高的現金流利潤率。那你能解釋一下那座橋嗎？

Wamsi, thanks for the question. Look, we expect to see improving software performance through the year, both in '21 and headed into '22. As Jim said in the prepared remarks, a lot of the shortfall in software came from the TPP segment. And in that segment, as you know, we intend to have very large deals that tend to come in the fourth quarter. So it was somewhat unique in 2020, and that is not something we expect to see at the same scale going forward. So the headwinds in some sense will reduce because of the reduction in that aspect.

Wamsi，謝謝你的提問。看起來，我們預計今年軟體效能將會提高，無論是在 21 年還是在 22 年。正如吉姆在準備好的發言中所說，軟體方面的許多缺口都來自TPP部分。如您所知，在這一領域，我們打算在第四季度達成非常大的交易。因此，2020 年的情況有些獨特，我們預期未來不會再出現同樣的規模。因此，從某種意義上來說，由於這方面的減少，阻力也會減少。

Then on the positive side, we expect to see continued Red Hat growth. We expect to see continued growth from our Cloud Paks. We expect to see continued growth as the sales force changes we have made drive a much greater focus across IBM on this part of the portfolio, both in Cloud & Data Platform, and on the AI applications.

從積極的一面來看，我們預計紅帽將繼續增長。我們預計我們的 Cloud Paks 將持續成長。我們預計會看到持續的成長，因為我們所做的銷售團隊變動將推動 IBM 更加關注雲端和資料平台以及 AI 應用程式的這一部分產品組合。

We also expect to see, as Jim mentioned, that as the security and the IoT assets within the applications become larger and larger with the growth there, they will more than compensate for some of the other pieces that may not be so big because just the law of compounding is going to get us there.

正如 Jim 所提到的，我們也希望看到，隨著應用程式中的安全性和物聯網資產的成長而變得越來越大，它們將彌補一些可能不那麼大的其他部分，因為複合定律將幫助我們實現這一目標。

And lastly, remember, other than all the organic actions, we are also doing inorganic actions. You saw us announce both Instana and StackRox in the last couple of months. And these and other future acquisitions would also drive growth because they help the entire portfolio, not just acquired pieces. Jim?

最後，請記住，除了所有有機動作之外，我們還在進行無機動作。您看到我們在過去幾個月中發布了 Instana 和 StackRox。這些以及其他未來的收購也將推動成長，因為它們有助於整個投資組合，而不僅僅是收購的部分。吉姆？

Okay. Thanks, Arvind, and thanks, Wamsi, for the question. Very important as many of our investors have been asking us about the free cash flow generation profile of this company. Why? It's because it's going to be the engine to fuel the investments for that growth that we committed here in 2021. But let me take a step back because I think it's important to understand coming off of a strong finish on free cash flow in 2020 delivering $10.8 billion, 143% free cash flow realization, first, how does that bridge go to 2021 at $11 billion to $12 billion of adjusted free cash flow. And then I think you'll see how we then continue to accelerate that to $12 billion to $13 billion overall.

好的。謝謝 Arvind 和 Wamsi 提出的問題。這非常重要，因為我們的許多投資者一直在詢問我們這家公司的自由現金流產生。為什麼？因為它將成為我們在 2021 年承諾的成長投資的引擎。但讓我退一步來說，因為我認為重要的是要了解，在 2020 年自由現金流強勁增長，實現 108 億美元、143% 的自由現金流之後，首先，如何才能將這一橋樑自由延伸到 2021 年，實現 110 億美元至 120 億美元的調整後自由現金流。然後我想你會看到我們如何繼續將這一數字加速到 120 億美元至 130 億美元。

So as we said in the prepared remarks, first, revenue growth, which is going to be essential here. Second, and I think you've seen this over the last couple of years, we have driven the productivity and operating leverage out of this business with our gross margin expansions, I think, now for about 8 to 10 quarters in a row. So not only are we going to now turn around to revenue growth, we're going to get operating leverage. And that's going to deliver a significant amount of operating profit contribution to free cash flow, coupled with Red Hat being accretive net of interest expense already as we achieve our accretion in third quarter.

正如我們在準備好的發言中所說的那樣，首先，收入成長至關重要。其次，我想大家在過去幾年裡已經看到了這一點，我們透過擴大毛利率來提高該業務的生產力和營運槓桿，我想，現在已經連續 8 到 10 個季度了。因此，我們現在不僅要實現營收成長，還要獲得經營槓桿。這將為自由現金流帶來大量的營業利潤貢獻，再加上紅帽在第三季實現增值，扣除利息支出後，其淨額已經增加。

Now what's happening from 2020 to 2021? We're going to get substantial operating profit, but we've got a big cash tax headwind in 2021. So while you're seeing nice growth from $10.8 billion to $11 billion to $12 billion, we're already overcompensating for $1 billion roughly of cash tax headwind. Now when you get to 2022, we're going to get that same level of operating profit contribution that has good leverage, but we have a much more de minimis cash tax headwind in 2022, which makes us very confident in our ability to give guidance at those levels for the next 2 years.

那麼 2020 年至 2021 年會發生什麼事？我們將獲得可觀的營業利潤，但 2021 年我們將面臨巨大的現金稅阻力。因此，雖然您看到從 108 億美元到 110 億美元再到 120 億美元的良好增長，但我們已經過度補償了大約 10 億美元的現金稅收逆風。現在，當進入 2022 年時，我們將獲得具有良好槓桿率的相同水平的營業利潤貢獻，但我們在 2022 年面臨的最低現金稅逆風要大得多，這使我們對在未來兩年內以這些水平提供指導的能力非常有信心。

Our next question comes from Amit Daryanani from Evercore ISI.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore ISI 的 Amit Daryanani。

I guess the question really is on the GTS side and the spin of NewCo. The revenue trajectory on GTS, the drop was sort of notable, I think, it went down to 8% decline versus the 4%, 5% trend line for the last few quarters. I'd love to understand from you, Arvind or Martin, what are you hearing from your customers? I mean, do you see this as a reflection that they're perhaps pausing their decision until the spin is done or perhaps picking up calls from your competition as this is going on? I'd just love to understand what's driving that dynamic there. And then, Jim, if you could remind me, when does the Form 10 get publicly disseminated, that would be great.

我猜問題確實出在 GTS 方面和 NewCo 的旋轉上。我認為，GTS 的營收軌跡下降比較明顯，下降到了 8%，而過去幾季的趨勢線為 4%、5%。我很想從您那裡了解，Arvind 或 Martin，您從客戶那裡聽到了什麼？我的意思是，您是否認為這反映出他們可能會暫停做出決定，直到旋轉完成，或在旋轉過程中接聽競爭對手的電話？我只是想了解是什麼推動了這種動態。然後，吉姆，如果你能提醒我，表格 10 什麼時候公開發布，那就太好了。

Amit, so in terms of the client feedback, we have talked about that we are going to do a lot of high-touch treatment of all these clients. These are really important clients for us. As both Jim and Martin said, they are our most important clients in very important industries for the overall economy.

阿米特，就客戶回饋而言，我們已經討論過，我們將對所有這些客戶進行大量高接觸治療。這些都是我們非常重要的客戶。正如吉姆和馬丁所說，他們是我們在整個經濟中非常重要的行業中最重要的客戶。

As we have talked to all of the clients, we have, by and large, gotten very positive feedback. Over 98% of them are quite satisfied with our description of what will happen, both are in terms of their contracts, the service they'll get from us and the assured guarantee of access to technical resources, both from the new company and from IBM over time.

當我們與所有客戶交談時，我們總體上得到了非常積極的回饋。超過 98% 的客戶對我們所描述的情況感到非常滿意，包括他們簽訂的合約、他們從我們這裡獲得的服務以及從新公司和 IBM 長期獲得技術資源的保證。

As that plays through, we see that. As Jim mentioned, and he touched on it very briefly, we do measure how our clients think of us. We call it Net Promoter Score measurements, and we are seeing that those have gone up, not down. So we feel comfortable that the clients will go through it.

隨著劇情的展開，我們看到了這一點。正如吉姆所提到的，他非常簡短地談到了這一點，我們確實衡量了客戶對我們的看法。我們稱之為淨推薦值測量，我們發現該值是上升了，而不是下降了。因此，我們相信客戶會順利完成這個過程。

Now all that said, maybe a few clients are going to pause on certain project elements given their own business. And so in that -- in the GTS business, clients are allowed to dial volumes up a little bit or down a little bit based on their own performance. That is built into these contracts. So given let's say what's happening in the overall economy, you see some of that play through in both directions. And that is the large cause of that.

綜上所述，也許有些客戶會根據自己的業務狀況暫停某些專案要素。因此，在 GTS 業務中，客戶可以根據自己的表現稍微調高或調低音量。這是合約中規定的內容。因此，考慮到整體經濟的現狀，你會看到其中一些因素在兩個方向上都有所體現。這就是造成這現象的主要原因。

The other side of it, which is the new logos, gives us confidence that the performance should be on an improving trajectory going into 2021. So with that, let me give it to Jim, both to sort of add a little bit more color on the financials there and to just to repeat what he said about the Form 10.

另一方面，新的標誌讓我們有信心，到 2021 年，業績將會呈現改善的軌跡。因此，讓我把它交給吉姆，既要對那裡的財務狀況再多加一點說明，又要重複一下他對錶格 10 所說的話。

Yes. Thanks, Arvind, and thanks, Amit, for the question. Just to put it in perspective, GTS $6.6 billion here in the quarter, to your point, down, what, 5.5% at actual, down 7.5%, give or take, at constant currency. It was though, up 2% quarter-to-quarter. So we saw nice seasonality and by the way, pretty consistent with what our normal 3Q to 4Q would be in GTS.

是的。謝謝 Arvind 和 Amit 提出的問題。客觀地說，本季 GTS 為 66 億美元，正如您所說，實際下降了 5.5%，以固定匯率計算，下降了 7.5% 左右。但環比增長了 2%。因此，我們看到了良好的季節性，順便說一句，這與 GTS 的正常 3Q 至 4Q 情況非常一致。

Now with that said, in addition to what Arvind had talked about, which is what we've been dealing with for the last 4 quarters or so, give the external economic environment with lower client base business volumes, we actually took, as I said in my prepared remarks, we took proactive actions to restructure some of our contracts to optimize our Managed Infrastructure Services business to get ready for the spin, which is what your second question is.

話雖如此，除了 Arvind 談到的，也就是我們在過去 4 個季度左右一直在處理的問題之外，考慮到外部經濟環境導致客戶群業務量下降，正如我在準備好的發言中所說，我們實際上採取了主動行動來重組我們的一些合同，以優化我們的託管基礎轉型設施服務業務，為您的第二個問題做好準備，這就是您的第二個問題。

As we talked about on October 8, we are going to create value through focus in both IBM and in NewCo. And in NewCo, the focus is on getting the fundamentals of this business in terms of value. That's margin, profit and cash. And with these actions, we will improve on the financial profile as we prepare for the spin-off, leading to, again, an improved EBITDA profile, approaching double digits, post-spin, a solid balance sheet targeting investment-grade rating and a strong free cash flow yield and dividend yield that should be attractive to a financial value-based investor overall.

正如我們 10 月 8 日談到的，我們將透過對 IBM 和 NewCo 的關注來創造價值。在 NewCo 中，重點是從價值角度獲取該業務的基本面。這就是保證金、利潤和現金。透過這些行動，我們將在為分拆做準備時改善財務狀況，從而再次改善 EBITDA 狀況，在分拆後接近兩位數，穩健的資產負債表旨在獲得投資級評級，強勁的自由現金流收益率和股息收益率應該對基於金融價值的投資者整體具有吸引力。

Now with regards to your second question on the Form 10, I think I addressed that in the prepared remarks, a lot of work being done. The complexity of this as we learn each and every day, Arvind talked about the client transition, and we're very pleased with where that's going with our new logo signings and very strong renewal rates. But if you think about the legal, regulatory, financial, the carve-out work, right now, I think we're well on track to achieve what we said on October 8, which is the end of the year. And you should see the Form 10 sometime in the fall period.

現在關於表格 10 的第二個問題，我想我在準備好的發言中已經提到了這一點，還有很多工作要做。我們每天都在學習這件事的複雜性，Arvind 談到了客戶轉型，我們對新標誌簽約和非常強勁的續約率的進展感到非常滿意。但如果你考慮法律、監管、財務和剝離工作，現在，我認為我們正朝著實現我們在 10 月 8 日，也就是年底時所說的目標的方向前進。您應該會在秋季的某個時候看到表格 10。

Our next question comes from Toni Sacconaghi from Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自伯恩斯坦的托尼·薩科納吉。

If I just kind of stand back from the results this quarter, typically, your revenues are up $3.4 billion from Q3 to Q4. That's the average of your last 3 years, and there's very little movement off of that average. This year, it was $2.8 billion. So at least in my eyes, it looks significantly worse. And I understand there are some issues around transaction processing. I understand year-over-year comps, but this is a sequential change, which seems to be notably below trend. And I hear your assurances around the current spending environment.

如果我只是回顧本季的業績，通常來說，你們的營收從第三季到第四季增加了 34 億美元。這是過去 3 年的平均值，與該平均值的變動很小。今年則達 28 億美元。所以至少在我看來，情況看起來更糟得多。我了解到交易處理方面存在一些問題。我了解同比情況，但這是一個連續的變化，似乎明顯低於趨勢。我聽到了您對當前支出環境的保證。

I guess the question is -- and the elephant in the room is, how do you know that there isn't something more sinister afoot here. That there is an accelerated migration to the cloud that you are not -- IBM is not participating in or your -- particularly some of your software offerings in Cloud & Cognitive are not as competitive as you might think, and that's ultimately what's being reflected here.

我想問題是──也是顯而易見的一個問題：你怎麼知道這裡沒有更險惡的事情發生？雲端運算正在加速遷移，而 IBM 沒有參與其中，特別是您在雲端運算和認知領域提供的一些軟體產品並不像您想像的那麼有競爭力，這最終就反映在這裡。

And I guess to that end as well, maybe, Arvind, you can directly address why the confidence in mid-single-digit growth in 2022? It sounds like at constant currency, IBM is going to be flattish or maybe slightly down in 2021. So what drives the 500 basis point improvement, which on a huge company like IBM, is really, really notable? How much of that do you expect to be inorganic?

我想，為此，也許，Arvind，您可以直接解釋為什麼對 2022 年實現中等個位數成長充滿信心？聽起來，以固定匯率計算，IBM 在 2021 年將會持平，甚至可能略有下降。那麼，是什麼推動了 500 個基點的改善呢？對於 IBM 這樣的大公司來說，這真的非常顯著嗎？您認為其中有多少是無機的？

Okay. Toni, thank you very much. Arvind, I'll address the front-end piece, and then you could talk about the second part of Toni's question overall. Toni, you are correct with regards to the last 2 to 3 years, when you look at the sequential normal seasonality of our business top line, it's in the neighborhood of $3.3 billion, $3.4 billion. But I think you know quite well, and many of our investors know quite well, that sequential trajectory has been distorted by a couple of things. One, the Red Hat deferred revenue and acquisition; and two, a major mainframe product cycle, as you know, which is why 90 days ago, I think when you asked the question to me, I answered it on a 5-year CGR, and I was very specific, and that average is about $3 billion.

好的。托尼，非常感謝你。Arvind，我將討論前端部分，然後您可以總體討論 Toni 問題的第二部分。東尼，你對過去 2 到 3 年的預測是正確的，當你查看我們業務營收的連續正常季節性時，它大約在 33 億美元到 34 億美元之間。但我想您和我們的許多投資者都很清楚，連續的軌跡已經被一些事情扭曲了。一是紅帽遞延收入和收購；二是主要的大型機產品週期，正如你所知，這就是為什麼 90 天前，我想當你問我這個問題時，我以 5 年 CGR 為依據回答了這個問題，而且我非常具體，這個平均值約為 30 億美元。

Now with that said, we delivered, to your point, $2.8 billion. And I think we've been open and transparent that we fell short against that expectation. And we fell short, specifically in software. If you look at the balance of our portfolio, which is the remaining 65% of the revenue profile of the business, we were pretty much well within and some slightly above, given our strong mainframe finish to the year-end. And that software shortfall, as we talked about, was a culmination of the confluence of the wrap on the peak ELAs from last year. You, I think, all understand our ELA cycle, which has tremendous value to our clients and tremendous value to our financial equation. On average, those are about 3-year cycles. We had the peak cycle in 4Q '19. We grew software revenue 10% off of that. And underpinning that, the transactional volume in that software was up close to 30% overall.

話雖如此，我們已經交付了 28 億美元。我認為，我們一直以開放和透明的態度承認我們未能達到這一期望。但我們仍有不足，特別是在軟體方面。如果你看一下我們的投資組合餘額，即業務收入組成中剩餘的 65%，那麼考慮到我們到年底的強勁大型機業績，我們的收入基本上處於合理水平，甚至略高於這個水平。正如我們所說的，軟體短缺是去年 ELA 高峰期匯合的結果。我想，你們都了解我們的 ELA 週期，它對我們的客戶和我們的財務等式都具有巨大的價值。平均而言，這些週期約為 3 年。2019 年第四季我們經歷了高峰週期。我們的軟體收入在此基礎上成長了 10%。而支撐這一點的是，該軟體的交易量整體成長了近 30%。

So we were in a trough year. We knew fourth quarter was going to be the most challenging quarter all year long, and we've been talking about that. Now it's really the confluence of, one, that peak cycle wrap, which we knew about because our volumes came in pretty much what we expected. But what you're seeing to the second part of your question is, yes, is there shifts that are moving to the cloud? Yes. And by the way, I think we're capitalizing on that. We got a $25 billion cloud base of business that's growing 20%. And we've got continued acceleration in our hybrid cloud platform with very good performance in Red Hat, which we could talk about later.

所以我們正處於低谷的一年。我們知道第四季度將是全年最具挑戰性的季度，我們一直在談論這個問題。現在，這實際上是高峰週期的匯合，我們知道這一點，因為我們的銷售基本上符合我們的預期。但是，對於問題的第二部分，您看到的是，是的，是否有向雲端轉移的轉變？是的。順便說一句，我認為我們正在利用這一點。我們的雲端業務基礎價值 250 億美元，並且成長了 20%。我們的混合雲平台持續加速發展，Red Hat 的表現非常出色，我們稍後可以討論。

But the confluence of what happened to software is really given the uncertainty in the environment. Clients are reluctant to commit long-term duration of deals. And that really hurt our -- what you would call an AUR or our deal value size. Now there's some positives to that, which I'm sure Arvind will get into.

但軟體發生的變化確實是考慮到了環境的不確定性。客戶不願意承諾長期交易。這確實損害了我們的——你所說的 AUR 或我們的交易價值規模。現在這件事有一些正面的方面，我相信 Arvind 會接受的。

Number one, we got shorter-term durations now, so we have a much higher ELA pool in 2021. Number two, we had a very strong, in fact, record renewal rates, which led to a record deferred income balance, $17.1 billion overall. And even stripping out Red Hat, we had the strongest quarter-to-quarter deferred income and renewal rate in our core software organic business that we've seen in 10 years. I think that's a great instantiation of our clients committing to the value of our software portfolio overall. So with that, let me turn it over to Arvind. You can address the second piece.

首先，我們現在的期限較短，因此 2021 年我們的 ELA 池會高得多。第二，我們的續約率實際上非常強勁，創下了歷史新高，這導致遞延收入餘額創下紀錄，總額達到 171 億美元。即使剔除紅帽，我們核心軟體有機業務的季度遞延收入和續約率也是 10 年來最高的。我認為這是我們的客戶對我們軟體產品組合整體價值承諾的一個很好的例子。因此，讓我將主題交給 Arvind。您可以解決第二部分。

Thanks, Jim. And Toni, I'll address some of the software pieces, but you asked a question about the mid-single-digit growth in 2022. So Toni, let me try and just deconstruct it a little bit.

謝謝，吉姆。東尼，我會討論一些軟體部分，但你問了一個關於 2022 年中等個位數成長的問題。那麼東尼，讓我試著稍微解構一下它。

Red Hat continues to have very strong performance, mid- to maybe high-teens growth. And as it gets bigger and bigger, that's a bigger contributor to the total. Second, GBS is going to return to pre-pandemic levels by midyear, and we actually expect it to accelerate from there. But into 2022, we'll see better growth from there.

Red Hat 持續維持強勁表現，成長率達到中到高水準。隨著規模越來越大，它對總量的貢獻也越來越大。其次，GBS 將在年中恢復到疫情前的水平，實際上我們預計它會從那時起加速成長。但到 2022 年，我們將看到更好的成長。

In systems, as you know, we are not going to see the product cycle dynamics as headwinds but as tailwinds going into 2022, albeit the absolute numbers are not necessarily that big. Our ecosystem investments that we are making, they benefit both GBS and software. And by ecosystem, I mean, both small and big partners that we work with who are pulling both services and software.

在系統中，如您所知，我們不會將產品週期動態視為逆風，而是將其視為進入 2022 年的順風，儘管絕對數字不一定那麼大。我們正在進行的生態系統投資對 GBS 和軟體都有好處。我所說的生態系統是指與我們合作的大大小小的合作夥伴，他們既提供產品和服務，也提供軟體。

So when we see, for example, Salesforce, or Adobe, or ServiceNow or Workday, they all tend to pull a lot of our services work. We also partner, by the way, with the other hyperscaling clouds, both Microsoft and Amazon, and that tends to pull a lot of GBS work. On the other side, we are also partnering with a lot of smaller software vendors, and they tend to pull a lot of our software along with it. So that is there.

因此，當我們看到 Salesforce、Adobe、ServiceNow 或 Workday 等公司時，它們都傾向於承擔我們大量的服務工作。順便說一句，我們也與其他超大規模雲端公司（微軟和亞馬遜）合作，這往往會帶來大量的 GBS 工作。另一方面，我們也與許多小型軟體供應商合作，他們往往會帶走我們的許多軟體。就是這樣。

Now you asked about the inorganic and organic. I'll call it, the business as usual in organic is included in my mid-single-digit assessment. So by business as usual, it's just what we do. You've seen us do this for the last 3 quarters now. So deals like that would be included. And that -- for example, we did Instana and StackRox in software. Now we did 5 others in services. They're not very large, but they do tend to pull the overall business.

現在您問的是無機和有機。我會這樣說，有機業務的正常發展已包含在我的中等個位數評估中。所以，按照慣例，這就是我們所做的。您已經看到我們在過去三個季度中都這樣做。因此，類似的交易也會被納入。例如，我們在軟體中做了 Instana 和 StackRox。現在我們又完成了 5 項服務。它們的規模不是很大，但確實能拉動整體業務。

That is what gives me confidence that as we get through all of this, we got 1, 2, 3 growth vectors and 1 kind of flat vector going into 2022. And that is what gives us confidence about the overall growth going there.

這讓我有信心，當我們度過這一切時，到 2022 年我們將獲得 1、2、3 個成長向量和 1 種平坦向量。這使得我們對那裡的整體成長充滿信心。

Our next question comes from Katy Huberty with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的凱蒂·休伯蒂。

Can you just clarify whether you expect revenue growth at constant currency this year? And then you provided pretty specific commentary around the revenue trajectory and revenue growth on a reported basis for '21 as well as normalized free cash flow but you didn't speak to EPS. So is there a reason that there's less visibility into earnings this year? And can you talk just broadly about what some of the headwinds and tailwinds would be on the EPS line this year?

您能否澄清一下，您是否預期今年的營收將以固定匯率成長？然後，您對 21 年報告的收入軌跡和收入成長以及正常化的自由現金流提供了非常具體的評論，但您沒有談到每股盈餘。那麼，今年獲利預測較低的原因是什麼呢？您能否大致談談今年 EPS 面臨的一些不利因素和有利因素？

Yes. So Katy, why don't I start on why we gave the guidance on revenue and on free cash flow. And then I think Jim will get into the details on your other parts of the question.

是的。那麼凱蒂，我先來談談為什麼我們給了關於收入和自由現金流的指導。然後我想吉姆會詳細討論問題的其他部分。

Look, I've been sort of clear. I want to measure the company on revenue growth. Revenue growth is the most important metric that I am focused on. And so we talked about the revenue growth, both for this year and for next year, which is unusual for us.

瞧，我已經說得很清楚了。我想根據收入成長來衡量公司。收入成長是我關注的最重要的指標。因此，我們討論了今年和明年的收入成長，這對我們來說是不尋常的。

The second part, in order to get revenue growth, we need to be able to do investments. Investments are driven by free cash flow. And on free cash flow, it's a very clean number. So you can see what that is. And we've talked about that with complete transparency, both on what it is going to be and why it will grow also from '21 to '22.

第二部分，為了實現收入成長，我們需要能夠進行投資。投資由自由現金流驅動。就自由現金流而言，這是一個非常乾淨的數字。所以你可以看到那是什麼。我們已經完全透明地討論了這個問題，包括它將會是什麼樣子，以及為什麼它會從 21 年到 22 年不斷增長。

That's also what we're going to measure our people on internally, and that will let then our investors know what we are measuring on. So that's why those are the 2 numbers that we are focused on driving. That's the numbers we're focused there on giving you so you could hold us accountable to those. Jim?

這也是我們在內部衡量員工的標準，這樣我們的投資人就會知道我們的衡量標準。這就是為什麼我們要集中精力實現這兩個數字。這就是我們重點要提供給您的數字，以便您可以讓我們對它們負責。吉姆？

Okay. And Katy, let's talk a little bit about the revenue profile. I think Arvind just answered the 2 metrics. And by the way, I could tell you, we flipped the whole operational management system, Arvind spent a lot of time about the operating model changes, the actions he's taken on how we drive signpost milestones to deliver on those 2 fundamental objectives, which, by the way, after the third quarter, Arvind and I did an extensive outreach to many of our investors, and we got unanimous feedback on what those 2 measures should be, which is sustainability of revenue and operating free cash flow to fuel the investment overall. But let's talk about revenue.

好的。凱蒂，我們來談談收入狀況。我認為 Arvind 剛剛回答了這 2 個指標。順便說一句，我可以告訴你，我們徹底改變了整個營運管理系統，Arvind 花了很多時間在營運模式的改變上，他採取的行動是如何推動里程碑式的實現這兩個基本目標，順便說一句，在第三季度之後，Arvind 和我對我們的許多投資者進行了廣泛的宣傳，我們得到了關於這兩項收入的可持續性但讓我們來談談收入。

So we talked about growth at current spot rates. You see in the supplemental charts, you see where the U.S. dollar has weakened. Right now, at current spot rates, we expect the full year somewhere around 2 points of a tailwind overall. Pretty unique position on where we've been for the last 10 years.

因此，我們討論了當前現貨匯率的成長。您可以在補充圖表中看到美元已經走弱。目前，以目前的現貨價格，我們預計全年總體上將出現 2 個點左右的順風。就我們過去 10 年所處的位置而言，這相當獨特。

But underneath that, we did say that we expect the fundamentals of the business trajectory across our segments to improve, first half to second half. And that is going to be important because to an earlier question, that acceleration has to position us for an exit velocity to get into 2022 around having a credible path for a mid-single-digit growth which is what our objective is.

但在此基礎上，我們確實表示，我們預計從上半年到下半年，我們各部門的業務軌跡基本面將會改善。這一點很重要，因為對於先前的問題來說，這種加速必須讓我們以一定的退出速度進入 2022 年，並擁有一條可靠的中位數成長路徑，而這正是我們的目標。

I would tell you, overall, we expect IBM RemainCo to grow both at actual rates and at constant currency. So that trajectory overall should give you a perspective right off the bat about where we should end go forward. NewCo, given where we ended in our backlog, we see improving trends but not getting back to growth. Because, again, as I said earlier, we are focused on the fundamentals of that business, margin, profit, cash and the strong EBITDA profile to set it up with an investment-grade balance sheet to absorb and deliver a free cash flow yield and dividend yield overall.

我想告訴你，總體而言，我們預計 IBM RemainCo 無論是以實際利率還是以固定匯率計算都將實現成長。因此，總體而言，該軌跡應該能讓您立即了解我們應該在哪裡結束前進。NewCo，考慮到我們積壓訂單的結束情況，我們看到了改善的趨勢，但還沒有恢復成長。因為，正如我之前所說，我們專注於該業務的基本面、利潤率、利潤、現金和強勁的 EBITDA 狀況，以建立投資級資產負債表來吸收並提供整體自由現金流收益率和股息收益率。

Underneath that, you can imagine our 2 growth engines Arvind talked about, software and GBS. And by the way, both of them, we see growth accelerating throughout the year, software being driven by strong Red Hat. Red Hat, as we talked about, we exited over $5 billion of backlog. $2.8 billion of deferred revenue. We already replenished more than what we acquired pre-acquisition. And by the way, that backlog of $5 billion is growing mid-20s. So the acceleration coming off the trough in third quarter up 16. We just posted plus 17. That should continue to accelerate as we move through.

在這之下，你可以想像 Arvind 談到的兩個成長引擎，軟體和 GBS。順便說一句，我們看到這兩款軟體全年都在加速成長，而強勁的 Red Hat 正是推動這兩款軟體發展的動力來源。正如我們所討論的，紅帽已經完成了價值超過 50 億美元的積壓訂單。28億美元的遞延收入。我們目前補充的數量已經超過了收購前的數量。順便說一句，50 億美元的積壓訂單正在以 20% 左右的速度成長。因此，第三季的成長率走出了低谷，上漲了 16%。我們剛剛發布了加 17。隨著我們的前進，這一進程將繼續加速。

And then GBS. We exited our backlogs up. Our signings of small deals were up nicely and accelerated from 3Q to 4Q. We got acquisitions we're going to continue to scale. Our book-to-bill exiting fourth quarter was 1.3, the strongest it's been in a long period of time. And we've got a nice backlog revenue run out in '21 that shows that acceleration, which gives us confidence that we can get back to pre-pandemic growth as early as the midyear.

然後是 GBS。我們完成了積壓的工作。我們簽署的小額交易數量成長良好，從第三季到第四季有所加速。我們進行了收購，並將繼續擴大規模。我們第四季的訂單出貨比為 1.3，這是很長一段時間以來的最高水準。我們在 21 年獲得了可觀的積壓收入，這表明成長正在加速，這使我們有信心最早在年中就能恢復到疫情前的成長水準。

Our next question comes from Matt Cabral with Crédit Suisse.

下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Matt Cabral。

I want to build on those last comments around GBS and just dig a little bit more. It looks like apps management was still the major drag despite a little bit of an easier compare versus the third quarter. Just wondering if you could unpack what's going on underneath there. And going forward, just how we should think about the potential of some pull-through from Red Hat-related work as you guys like to replatform and modernize some legacy on-prem apps. And just bigger picture, the path back to growth for apps management and what that looks like from here.

我想基於關於 GBS 的最後評論並進行更深入的挖掘。儘管與第三季相比更容易比較，但應用程式管理似乎仍然是主要的拖累因素。我只是想知道你是否可以解釋那裡到底發生了什麼。展望未來，當你們想要重新平台化和現代化一些傳統的內部部署應用程式時，我們應該如何考慮從 Red Hat 相關工作中獲得一些潛力。更廣闊的前景是，應用程式管理恢復成長的道路以及從現在開始的樣子。

Yes. Thanks, Matt. I'll take this one. To your question, Application Management Services overall is an integral part of our overall hybrid cloud platform thesis. As Arvind talked about already and we shared even the prepared chart, that platform has an economic equation that has a multiplier effect. And we talked about what, for every $1 of platform, we get $3 to $5 of software, we get $6 to $8 of services, both IBM and even as we scale with our ecosystem partnerships, that we've accelerated over the last 6 months, they get into that return also.

是的。謝謝，馬特。我要這個。對於您的問題，應用程式管理服務總體上是我們整體混合雲平台論文的一個組成部分。正如 Arvind 已經談到的，並且我們分享了準備好的圖表，該平台有一個具有乘數效應的經濟方程式。我們討論過，每花費 1 美元購買一個平台，我們就能獲得 3 到 5 美元的軟體，獲得 6 到 8 美元的服務，IBM 和我們的生態系統合作夥伴都擴大了規模，而且我們在過去 6 個月中加速了這一進程，他們也能獲得回報。

But let's talk about AMS. We've been speaking about this for the last few quarters, there definitely is a secular shift we know it. A shift from on-prem enterprise application component. Clients are prioritizing stability of applications in this environment. And we all know the reduce in discretionary spend components.

但讓我們來談談 AMS。過去幾季我們一直在談論這個問題，我們知道這肯定是一個長期的轉變。從內部部署企業應用程式元件轉變。客戶優先考慮此環境中應用程式的穩定性。我們都知道可自由支配的支出部分減少了。

But there's a flip side to that shift that's happening overall. And that's exactly where you went, which clients are accelerating their digital transformation and journeys to cloud. And we participate in there. Look at GBS' cloud business. We exited the year with almost a $6 billion book of business, accelerating throughout the year. We finished the year up double digits overall, up 11%. And AMS underneath that is up almost 10%. So a very big component of that is it's essential from a cloud transformation services as part of that hybrid cloud platform.

但整體而言，這種轉變也有其不利的一面。這正是您要去的地方，客戶正在加速他們的數位轉型和雲端運算之旅。我們也參與其中。看看GBS的雲端業務。我們以近 60 億美元的業務額結束了這一財年，並且全年業務額都在加速成長。我們全年的業績總體實現了兩位數成長，達到 11%。而其下的 AMS 上漲了近 10%。因此，其中一個非常重要的組成部分是，作為混合雲平台的一部分，雲端轉換服務至關重要。

Underneath that, what's driving it is application modernization work. That's where we participate in the full spectrum from advise to build to move and to manage. The front end of that, advise and build, is predominantly a consulting-based play. Consulting's up nicely, and our backlog, 17%. But as that journey continues, we'll start seeing AMS come back.

在這之下，推動它的是應用程式現代化工作。我們參與了從建議到建設到搬遷和管理的整個過程。其前端，即建議和構建，主要是基於諮詢的運作。諮詢業務成長良好，我們的積壓訂單成長了 17%。但隨著旅程的繼續，我們將開始看到 AMS 的回歸。

And just a few data points for you. Number one, with that secular shift to the cloud, we are capitalizing, as I said, AMS, up 8% in our total cloud book of business. We returned AMS back in total to signings growth in the quarter. Our backlog improved 5 points quarter-to-quarter. And to the heart of your question, 80% of our Red Hat and Cloud Pak placements are AMS incumbency enterprise clients. So it has tremendous value in leveraging that overall, and -- which is why we think it's essential to have a differentiated value proposition for our hybrid cloud platform.

這裡僅向您提供幾個數據點。第一，隨著向雲端運算的長期轉變，正如我所說，我們正在利用 AMS，使我們的整個雲端業務量成長 8%。我們在本季將 AMS 的簽約總量恢復到成長水準。我們的積壓訂單量比上一季減少了 5 個百分點。針對您的問題的核心，我們 80% 的 Red Hat 和 Cloud Pak 客戶都是 AMS 現任企業客戶。因此，從整體上利用這一點具有巨大的價值，這就是為什麼我們認為對我們的混合雲平台來說擁有差異化的價值主張至關重要。

Our next question is from Tien-Tsin Huang from JPMorgan.

下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Tien-Tsin Huang。

I think Katy asked about EPS. I'm not sure if I heard in your answer. Any call-outs on EPS cadence first half versus second half beyond the $260 million in charges and normal seasonality? I know you're not giving formal guidance, but I thought I'd ask anyway. But on the revenue side, just thinking about -- I know you've said a lot again on revenue. But if you're looking at revenue growth for fiscal '21, I know you talked about revenue growth in fiscal '20, but of course, COVID hit and the world changed. So how was your outlook this year for growth different from this time last year in terms of your conviction? I heard some of the drivers, but just really here asking about conviction and visibility.

我認為凱蒂詢問的是 EPS。我不確定我是否聽懂了你的回答。除了 2.6 億美元的費用和正常的季節性因素外，上半年與下半年的 EPS 節奏有何不同？我知道您沒有提供正式的指導，但我還是想問一下。但在收入方面，只是想想——我知道你已經多次談到收入問題。但是，如果您關注的是 21 財年的收入成長，我知道您談到了 20 財年的收入成長，但當然，新冠疫情來襲，世界發生了變化。那麼，從您的信念來看，您對今年的成長前景與去年同期有何不同？我聽到了一些司機的聲音，但實際上只是在這裡詢問信念和能見度。

Tien-Tsin. So maybe let me start about the conviction on revenue growth. So look, from what we can see, compared to what we saw last year, which is why we did not provide guidance in 2020, or rather we pulled guidance back in April. We feel that the economy, while there is uncertainty, certainly better than it was last year, so we don't expect to see anything worse compared to last year.

天津。那麼也許讓我先談談對收入成長的信心。因此，從我們所看到的情況來看，與去年的情況相比，這就是為什麼我們在 2020 年沒有提供指導，或者更確切地說，我們在 4 月撤回了指導。我們認為，儘管存在不確定性，但經濟肯定比去年好，因此我們預計不會出現比去年更糟糕的情況。

If anything, we talked about the second half being better because we expect as we get through that -- there is going to be more demand. These projects are going to go forward. And as we look underneath because also in the questions that Matt had about Red Hat and modernization, you can also see that people are signing up for bigger and bigger projects around modernization because they need to move on to their businesses also. There's only so long that you can belt tighten and not come out worse. So they're getting past their belt-tightening, we think, somewhere in the next 6 months.

如果有什麼不同的話，那就是我們認為下半年會更好，因為我們預計，隨著我們度過下半年，需求會更多。這些項目將會繼續推進。當我們深入研究時，因為在 Matt 關於 Red Hat 和現代化的問題中，您還可以看到人們正在簽署越來越大的現代化項目，因為他們也需要繼續開展業務。你只能勒緊褲帶一段時間，以免情況變得更糟。因此，我們認為，他們將在未來 6 個月內擺脫緊縮政策。

So that is why we have a lot more conviction. And that is why you heard Jim talk about the color from first half to second half and going forward into 2022, of an increasing trajectory, and he talked about that there is going to be growth for the remaining company at both current -- both spot rates and at constant currency. So that is why we have conviction.

這就是為什麼我們更加堅信這一點。這就是為什麼你會聽到吉姆談論從上半年到下半年以及到 2022 年的成長軌跡，並且他談到，公司剩餘部分將以當前即期匯率和固定匯率實現成長。這就是我們有信念的原因。

When we look at our underlying backlogs, when we look at our pipelines and we look at the demand profiles across those parts of the business. Hence, the conviction in the revenue growth. Jim?

當我們查看我們的基礎積壓訂單、查看我們的管道並查看業務各個部分的需求概況時。因此，我們對收入成長充滿信心。吉姆？

Yes. I would just add to that, Tien-Tsin. Thank you for the question. Again, as Arvind talked, this is a mindset change on how we want to operate the company. We've defined the strategy all-in, focused, aligned our portfolio, aligned our operating model. Now it's about growth and it's about driving that operating free cash flow, which is going to fuel that investment.

是的。我只想補充一點，Tien-Tsin。謝謝你的提問。再一次，正如 Arvind 所說，這是我們對如何經營公司的思維轉變。我們已經制定了全面的策略，重點突出，調整了我們的投資組合，調整了我們的營運模式。現在，我們要實現成長，推動經營自由現金流，以推動投資。

So around that, we talked about the trajectory overall. First of all, I should have mentioned -- I mean, as you could see in the supplemental chart, although we said revenue growth at current spot rates, you see that, that's predominantly a first half discussion. It's about 3 to 4 points of tailwind in the first half, and that dissipates quickly in the second half overall, which is why the fundamentals of the underlying business by segment will have to improve, and we expected them to improve as we move through the year.

因此，我們圍繞這一點討論了整體的發展軌跡。首先，我應該提到 - 我的意思是，正如您在補充圖表中所看到的，儘管我們說的是按當前現貨價格計算的收入增長，但您會看到，這主要是上半年的討論。上半年的順風大約有 3 到 4 個點，但下半年整體上會迅速消散，這就是為什麼各部門基礎業務的基本面必須改善的原因，我們預計這些基本面會隨著全年的推移而改善。

The other thing I will tell you, underpinning, because it's a fair question. As I stated, I think we've built the credibility over the last few years that we know how to drive operating leverage within this business. So you can expect, we grew gross margins this year, I think, about 130 basis points, 70 basis points in the fourth quarter. You can expect that we're going to continue to drive operating leverage in this business, and we'll have margin expansion in '21.

我要告訴你的另一件事是基礎，因為這是一個公平的問題。正如我所說，我認為我們在過去幾年中已經建立了信譽，我們知道如何在這個行業中推動經營槓桿。所以你可以預期，今年我們的毛利率成長了大約 130 個基點，第四季成長了 70 個基點。您可以預期，我們將繼續推動該業務的經營槓桿，並且我們的利潤率將在 21 年擴大。

And second, the other variable that you always ask me and we talk about and we try to be very transparent underneath it is our tax rate. And while we operate in 100-plus countries around the world, the geographic product mix can impact that dramatically, tax structures, audits, et cetera, can change it. From our perspective, we finished fourth quarter at what, I think, 10.4% from an operating tax rate. Pretty consistent, by the way, of third quarter and pretty consistent last year.

其次，你們經常問我、我們討論的另一個變數是我們的稅率，我們試著使其非常透明。雖然我們在全球 100 多個國家開展業務，但地理產品組合會對此產生巨大影響，稅收結構、審計等都會改變它。從我們的角度來看，第四季我們的營業稅率為 10.4%。順便說一句，第三季和去年的情況相當一致。

And just given what I said earlier one on a book tax rate, we're going to have a headwind on cash taxes, I would expect our tax rate to go up a few points from that 10.4%. So it gives you a little bit more color underneath the revenue profile, the operating leverage and tax. And again, we're just trying to change a mindset here.

鑑於我之前關於帳面稅率的說法，我們將面臨現金稅的阻力，我預計我們的稅率將從 10.4% 上升幾個百分點。因此，它可以為你提供更多關於收入狀況、經營槓桿和稅收的資訊。再說一次，我們只是想改變一種思考方式。

Our next question comes from David Grossman from Stifel Nicolaus.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel Nicolaus 的 David Grossman。

Arvind, perhaps you could be a little more specific about what you were seeing in the legacy sales and marketing structure, which precipitated the reorg. And maybe identify what changes you expect to be most impactful and why. And sorry for the 2-part question but Jim, perhaps you could reflect on whether there's -- or how much, if any, free cash tailwind you're seeing in '20 and '21 and '22 from the change in the IGF receivables.

Arvind，也許您可以更具體地說明您在傳統銷售和行銷結構中看到了什麼，從而促成​​了重組。並可能確定您認為哪些變化最有影響力以及原因。很抱歉我問了兩個問題，但 Jim，也許你可以思考一下，在 2020 年、2021 年和 2022 年，IGF 應收帳款的變化是否會帶來自由現金順風，或者會帶來多少（如果有的話）自由現金順風。

David. Look, this is something I'm deeply, deeply passionate about, so I'm happy to talk about this. Look, every model has its time and then it's time to evolve. So we are evolving in reaction to client needs. And we had sort of operated with our, call it, a more homogeneous model that kind of went across all our segments, all our clients for a long time.

大衛。看，這是我非常非常熱衷的事情，所以我很高興談論這個。看，每個模型都有它的時代，然後是時候進化了。因此，我們正在根據客戶的需求不斷發展。長期以來，我們一直採用一種更同質的模式來運營，這種模式涵蓋了我們所有的部門和所有的客戶。

So what are we doing? There is a set of clients who do tend to buy, I'll call it, a lot of IBM. Let's call them they need the integrated value of IBM. We're calling that the first segment. So in this first segment, we are also going to make extra investments in them being able to experience IBM technically. So we are using the term garages. We have people who go in there and work side-by-side with the client, well, virtually right now. As well as being able to have a lot of focus on deployment, and we'll pay the people on deployment, not on selling. So this first segment is going to have that attention with extra assisting. So they should see a lot of positive, and we expect to see growth coming out of our garages and our deployment manages.

那我們在做什麼？有一組客戶確實傾向於購買大量 IBM 產品。我們可以這樣說，他們需要 IBM 的綜合價值。我們稱之為第一部分。因此，在第一階段，我們還將進行額外投資，讓他們能夠從技術上體驗 IBM。因此我們使用“車庫”這個術語。我們安排人員前往那裡與客戶並肩工作，實際上現在就是這樣。我們不僅能夠將大量精力放在部署上，而且還會根據部署情況而不是銷售情況向人員支付報酬。因此，第一部分將透過額外的輔助來吸引人們的注意。因此他們應該看到很多積極的方面，我們也期望看到我們的車庫和部署管理出現成長。

Then there is a segment which is largely going to be channel ready. So there, we do get, as Jim talked about, operational leverage, you don't need the other people. The channel is quite capable, but rather put more money into the channel and work with them to go after that. That's the other end of the spectrum.

然後有一個部分基本上已經為頻道做好了準備。所以，正如吉姆所說的，我們確實獲得了營運槓桿，你不需要其他人。該管道非常有能力，但寧願向該管道投入更多資金並與他們合作以實現這一目標。這是另一個極端。

Then there is a set of clients, let's call it, between these 2 spectrums, they tend to buy mostly from 1 or 2 parts of IBM. So they deeply value the specialists but they don't need the generalists who were covering them. So we're going to take that money and then pour it into more specialists who can then cover those clients.

然後有一組客戶，我們稱之為，在這兩個範圍之間，他們傾向於從 IBM 的 1 個或 2 個部門購買產品。因此，他們非常重視專家，但不需要涵蓋他們的通才。因此，我們將利用這些資金聘請更多專家來服務這些客戶。

So there is a first segment which does have an integrated value. There is the top half of the second segment, which is going to be much more specialists. You can think of them as being technology-led sales, by and large. And then there is going to be a large part, which is ecosystem-led, whether system integrators, resellers, distributors, et cetera. We believe that this simplicity is going to drive a lot more outcome for us and for our clients.

因此，第一部分確實具有綜合價值。第二部分的上半部將會有更多的專家。總體而言，你可以將它們視為技術主導的銷售。然後，很大一部分將由生態系統主導，無論是系統整合商、經銷商、分銷商等等。我們相信，這種簡單性將為我們和我們的客戶帶來更多成果。

And by the way, we are also going to ensure that this is the structure that all parts of IBM have. So it's not that different parts of IBM will have slightly different client segmentations. It's completely consistent across all.

順便說一句，我們還將確保 IBM 所有部門都擁有這種結構。因此，IBM 不同部門的客戶細分不會有細微的差別。一切都是完全一致的。

This, we believe, unlocks a few points of revenue growth. So you said impactful. I expect that this will unlock a few points of revenue growth, albeit, let me acknowledge that it probably takes 6 months to flow through the system.

我們相信，這將帶來一些收入成長點。所以你說有影響力。我預計這將帶來幾個收入成長點，儘管我承認這可能需要 6 個月的時間才能完成整個系統。

David, let me address your good question around the IGF business and the tailwinds overall. First, just taking a step back. Within that overall IGF, consistent with our strategy, we are focusing this part of our portfolio directly aligned to be a captive financing aligned to our hybrid cloud and AI platform strategy overall. And you've seen us take a disciplined approach around both portfolio and financial management.

大衛，讓我來回答一下你關於 IGF 業務和整體順風方面的好問題。首先，退一步來說。在整個 IGF 中，根據我們的策略，我們將重點放在投資組合的這一部分，將其視為與我們的混合雲和 AI 平台整體策略一致的專屬融資。您已經看到我們在投資組合和財務管理方面採取了嚴謹的方法。

What am I saying? One, early in '29 (sic) ['19], we started winding down our OEM financing business. Then in 2020, as part of prudent austerity measures, as we prioritized liquidity, we actually announced, and you heard that in the fourth quarter, selling our IBM commercial financing receivables as part of our risk mitigation, cash and liquidity management practices. So now let me bring this all back together because I think these actions that we've taken have resulted in a more focused and healthier financing portfolio with a very much better overall debt level and refinancing requirements that are not going to be needed overall.

我在說什麼？首先，從 1929 年初 [19]，我們開始逐步結束 OEM 融資業務。然後在 2020 年，作為審慎的緊縮措施的一部分，由於我們優先考慮流動性，我們實際上宣布，正如您在第四季度聽到的那樣，出售我們的 IBM 商業融資應收款，作為我們風險緩解、現金和流動性管理實踐的一部分。現在讓我把所有這些重新整合起來，因為我認為我們採取的這些行動已經帶來了更加集中和更健康的融資組合，整體債務水平和再融資要求都得到了更好的改善，而這些要求總體上是不需要的。

So if you look at the strengthening of our balance sheet, our liquidity position exiting 2020, we talked about $14.3 billion of cash on the balance sheet. We talked about $11 billion to $12 billion of adjusted free cash flow. We got about $4 billion to $5 billion in 2020 around leveraging and focusing that strategy about IGF. And I would assume probably something very similar to that overall.

因此，如果您看一下我們的資產負債表的加強，即我們在 2020 年退出時的流動性狀況，我們談到了資產負債表上的 143 億美元現金。我們談到了 110 億美元至 120 億美元的調整後自由現金流。2020 年，我們獲得了約 40 億至 50 億美元的資金，用於利用和集中實施 IGF 策略。我認為總體上可能與此非常相似。

So when you take the power of those 3 buckets, $14 billion of cash, which I should tell you is about 2x the operating level that we need to run this company. So the excess cash there, the strong free cash flow generation and the IGF actions of $3 billion to $5 billion, let's call it, you got about $30 billion of firepower.

因此，當你利用這三個因素的力量時，140 億美元的現金，我應該告訴你，這大約是我們經營這家公司所需營運水準的 2 倍。因此，那裡的過剩現金、強勁的自由現金流以及 30 億至 50 億美元的 IGF 行動，我們稱之為，你擁有大約 300 億美元的火力。

Now that's a source of cash view. Now we all know in use of cash view. What do we know? One, I talked about the $3 billion, which will be cash out the door with regards to the structural actions and the cash taxes based on the transaction. Second, we are very committed to our secure and modestly growing dividend policy. That's about $6 billion. And then third, we continue to plan to delever, and our normal maturities are a little bit less than $7 billion this year. You add those up, you're about $15 billion plus.

這就是現金來源的觀點。現在我們都知道如何使用現金視圖了。我們知道什麼？首先，我談到了 30 億美元，這筆資金將用於結構性行動和基於交易的現金稅。其次，我們非常致力於安全且適度成長的股利政策。這大約是 60 億美元。第三，我們繼續計劃去槓桿，今年我們的正常到期金額略低於 70 億美元。將這些加起來，大約是 150 多億美元。

So we've got firepower here that gives us the financial flexibility to continue to invest in our business, delever to get back to our targeted leverage ratios, and also support that secure and modestly growing dividend.

因此，我們擁有強大的實力，可以讓我們擁有財務靈活性，繼續投資於我們的業務，降低槓桿率以回到我們的目標槓桿率，並支持安全且適度增長的股息。

So we've gone pretty long here. Why don't we just -- Arvind, do you want to make just a quick comment to wrap it up?

我們已經討論很久了。我們為什麼不——Arvind，你想簡單評論一下來總結一下嗎？

Yes. Thanks, Pat. So we covered a lot today, so let me just make a couple of really quick comments to wrap this up. We are confident in our strategy. We're taking the actions that will accelerate this change. We expect to grow in 2021 with an improving trajectory through the year. And with all of that, we will look different at the end of 2021 than we do today.

是的。謝謝，帕特。今天我們討論了很多內容，請容許我簡單說幾句來總結。我們對我們的策略充滿信心。我們正在採取行動來加速這一變化。我們預計 2021 年將實現成長，全年呈現改善趨勢。考慮到所有這些，2021 年底的我們看起來將與今天有所不同。

I look forward to continuing this dialogue with you. Thank you, everyone.

我期待與您繼續對話。謝謝大家。

Ivy, can I turn it back to you to close out the call, please?

艾薇，我可以把它轉回給你來結束通話嗎？

Absolutely. Thank you for participating in today's call. The conference has now ended. You may disconnect at this time.

絕對地。感謝您參加今天的電話會議。會議現已結束。您現在可以斷開連線。