International Business Machines Corp (IBM) 2020 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome, and thank you for standing by.

歡迎，感謝您的支持。

(Operator Instructions) Today's conference is being recorded.

（操作員說明）正在錄製今天的會議。

(Operator Instructions) Now I will turn the meeting over to Ms. Patricia Murphy with IBM.

（操作員說明）現在我將會議轉交給 IBM 的 Patricia Murphy 女士。

Ma'am, you may begin.

女士，您可以開始了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This is Patricia Murphy, and I want to welcome you to IBM's Third Quarter 2020 Earnings Presentation.

我是 Patricia Murphy，歡迎大家觀看 IBM 2020 年第三季度收益演示。

I'm here with Arvind Krishna, IBM's Chief Executive Officer; and Jim Kavanaugh, IBM's Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

我和 IBM 的首席執行官 Arvind Krishna 一起來的； IBM 高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Jim Kavanaugh。

We'll post today's prepared remarks on the IBM investor website within a couple of hours, and a replay will be available by this time tomorrow.

我們將在幾個小時內在 IBM 投資者網站上發布今天準備好的評論，明天這個時候將提供重播。

Some comments made in this presentation may be considered forward-looking under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

根據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》，本演示文稿中的某些評論可能被視為前瞻性的。

These statements involve factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially.

這些陳述涉及可能導致我們的實際結果出現重大差異的因素。

Additional information about these factors is included in the company's SEC filings.

有關這些因素的更多信息包含在公司提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中。

Our presentation also includes non-GAAP measures to provide additional information to investors.

我們的演示文稿還包括非 GAAP 措施，以向投資者提供額外信息。

For example, we present revenue and signings growth at constant currency throughout the presentation.

例如，我們在整個演示過程中以固定匯率顯示收入和簽約增長。

In addition, to provide a view consistent with our go-forward business, while we have wrapped on the majority of the impacts of the divestitures in 2019, we'll continue to focus on constant currency growth, adjusting for the divested businesses for the impacted lines of total revenue, cloud and our geographic performance.

此外，為了提供與我們未來業務一致的觀點，雖然我們已經涵蓋了 2019 年資產剝離的大部分影響，但我們將繼續關注持續的貨幣增長，針對受影響的業務調整剝離業務總收入、雲和我們的地理性能的線。

We have provided reconciliation charts for these and other non-GAAP measures at the end of the presentation and in the 8-K submitted to the SEC.

我們在演示文稿末尾和提交給 SEC 的 8-K 中提供了這些和其他非 GAAP 措施的調節表。

Finally, consistent with our last few quarters, IBM's year-over-year revenue, profit and earnings per share reflect the impact of purchase accounting and other transaction-related impacts associated with the acquisition of Red Hat.

最後，與我們過去幾個季度一致，IBM 的同比收入、利潤和每股收益反映了採購會計的影響以及與收購 Red Hat 相關的其他交易相關影響。

So with that, I'll turn the call over to Arvind.

因此，我將把電話轉給 Arvind。

Thanks, Patricia.

謝謝，帕特里夏。

I'm pleased to be speaking with you again just 1.5 weeks after our strategic update on October 8. Today, we'll focus on our third quarter performance, which you see is unchanged from the preliminary results we announced.

我很高興在 10 月 8 日戰略更新後僅 1.5 週再次與您交談。今天，我們將重點關注我們第三季度的業績，您看到的業績與我們宣布的初步業績沒有變化。

But I want to start with a summary of our strategic discussions.

但我想首先總結一下我們的戰略討論。

We are redefining our future as a hybrid cloud platform and AI company.

我們正在將我們的未來重新定義為混合雲平台和 AI 公司。

Over the last few years, we have built a solid foundation for hybrid cloud.

在過去幾年中，我們為混合雲奠定了堅實的基礎。

With the acceleration of the Red Hat platform adoption and the changes to clients' needs for application versus infrastructure services, we are separating our Managed Infrastructure Services into a new publicly traded company.

隨著 Red Hat 平台的加速採用以及客戶對應用程序與基礎架構服務的需求發生變化，我們將託管基礎架構服務拆分為一家新的上市公司。

The result is 2 market leaders with focused strategies and missions and improved growth trajectories.

結果是 2 個市場領導者擁有專注的戰略和使命，並改善了增長軌跡。

IBM is the #1 hybrid cloud platform and AI company.

IBM 是排名第一的混合雲平台和 AI 公司。

Newco will become the #1 managed infrastructure services company.

Newco 將成為排名第一的託管基礎設施服務公司。

As separate businesses, each can capitalize on their respective missions.

作為獨立的企業，每個企業都可以利用各自的使命。

Both will have more agility to focus on their operating and financial models.

兩者都將更加靈活地專注於他們的運營和財務模式。

Both will have greater freedom to partner with others, and both will align their investment and capital structure to their strategic focus areas.

雙方都將有更大的自由與他人合作，並且雙方都將根據各自的戰略重點領域調整投資和資本結構。

All of this will create value for clients and for you, the investors, with an improved financial profile of both companies.

所有這一切都將為客戶和您（投資者）創造價值，同時改善兩家公司的財務狀況。

Since the announcement, we have had a comprehensive outreach to our clients.

自公告發布以來，我們對客戶進行了全面的宣傳。

In fact, we have spoken to hundreds of our top clients, and I have personally spoken to dozens.

事實上，我們已經與數百名頂級客戶交談過，而我本人也與數十位客戶交談過。

The vast majority understands the strategy and are excited about what it means for them, whether they'll be predominantly future IBM clients or newco clients.

絕大多數人都了解該戰略，並且對它對他們的意義感到興奮，無論他們是未來的主要 IBM 客戶還是新公司客戶。

Our partners have also had a positive response as they see this as an opportunity to further strengthen our go-to-market initiatives in the hybrid cloud, data and AI spaces.

我們的合作夥伴也得到了積極的回應，因為他們認為這是進一步加強我們在混合雲、數據和人工智能領域的上市計劃的機會。

For IBM, as we look forward, the case for hybrid cloud is clear.

對於 IBM，正如我們所期待的，混合雲的案例是顯而易見的。

Clients see 2.5x more value in a hybrid cloud approach versus a public only.

與僅使用公共雲方法相比，客戶在混合雲方法中看到的價值高出 2.5 倍。

It's a tremendous opportunity valued at $1 trillion, with most of the enterprise opportunity ahead of us.

這是一個價值 1 萬億美元的巨大機會，大部分企業機會都擺在我們面前。

Our approach is platform-centric.

我們的方法是以平台為中心的。

It is differentiated by Red Hat OpenShift, which is our market-leading open platform, a vast software portfolio modernized to run cloud-native and our GBS expertise that drives platform adoption and meet clients where they are on their cloud journeys.

Red Hat OpenShift 與眾不同，它是我們市場領先的開放平台，是一個經過現代化改造以運行雲原生的龐大軟件組合，我們的 GBS 專業知識可推動平台採用並滿足客戶的雲之旅。

Over the coming months, we'll further advance our strategy by taking actions to simplify and optimize our model, increase investments in key areas and fostering much more of a growth mindset.

在接下來的幾個月裡，我們將採取行動簡化和優化我們的模型，增加對關鍵領域的投資，並培養更多的增長思維，從而進一步推進我們的戰略。

All of this will contribute to accelerated growth for our company in the future, and we expect to deliver sustainable mid-single-digit revenue growth upon completion of the separation of newco.

所有這些都將有助於我們公司未來的加速增長，我們預計在完成新公司的分離後，將實現可持續的中個位數收入增長。

Let me shift to some of the recent progress we have made against our hybrid cloud platform strategy from the perspective of our clients, our ecosystem and the innovations we're bringing to market.

讓我從我們的客戶、我們的生態系統和我們正在推向市場的創新的角度，談談我們最近在混合雲平台戰略方面取得的一些進展。

We have great recent examples of clients making large-scale architectural commitments to our hybrid cloud platform.

我們最近有很多客戶對我們的混合雲平台做出大規模架構承諾的例子。

Schlumberger is using our platform to make their E&P environment accessible across any infrastructure that their global clients use: on-premise, private and public clouds.

Schlumberger 正在使用我們的平台使其 E&P 環境可跨其全球客戶使用的任何基礎設施訪問：內部部署、私有和公共雲。

They'll enable the broader energy community to leverage data analytics and AI to unleash the power of digital innovation in the oil and gas industry.

它們將使更廣泛的能源社區能夠利用數據分析和人工智能來釋放石油和天然氣行業數字創新的力量。

We are also extending our relationship with Delta to transform their talent and modernize their IT environment using Red Hat, Cloud Paks and leveraging GBS's expertise.

我們還擴展了與 Delta 的關係，以利用 Red Hat、Cloud Paks 和 GBS 的專業知識來轉變他們的人才並實現 IT 環境的現代化。

They'll operate with greater speed and realize longer-term business benefits.

他們將以更快的速度運營並實現更長期的商業利益。

We are continuing to expand our ecosystem.

我們正在繼續擴展我們的生態系統。

Last week, I talked about how we have added hundreds of partners to drive workloads to our platform, including best-of-breed GSIs and ISVs.

上週，我談到了我們如何增加數百個合作夥伴來推動我們平台的工作負載，包括同類最佳的 GSI 和 ISV。

As an example, Ernst & Young is now leveraging our open hybrid cloud platform and AI solutions to help clients transform their businesses.

例如，Ernst & Young 現在正在利用我們的開放式混合雲平台和 AI 解決方案來幫助客戶實現業務轉型。

Our teams are also providing joint consulting capabilities to drive business outcomes for clients.

我們的團隊還提供聯合諮詢能力，以推動客戶取得業務成果。

Late last week, we announced expansion of our partnership with ServiceNow to bring the power of Watson AIOps to their market-leading Now Platform.

上週晚些時候，我們宣布擴大與 ServiceNow 的合作夥伴關係，將 Watson AIOps 的強大功能引入其市場領先的 Now Platform。

We're also bringing new innovations to market.

我們還將新的創新產品推向市場。

I'll highlight just 2 areas: Red Hat and Quantum.

我只強調 2 個領域：Red Hat 和 Quantum。

Red Hat extended its open hybrid cloud portfolio with several new technology introductions, including: OpenShift virtualization, which enables clients to migrate and run their virtual machines natively within Red Hat OpenShift; and Advanced Cluster Management for Kubernetes, which delivers the industry's most robust, multi-cluster, policy-based compliance and application management system.

紅帽通過推出多項新技術擴展了其開放式混合雲產品組合，包括： Advanced Cluster Management for Kubernetes，提供業界最強大的多集群、基於策略的合規性和應用程序管理系統。

These capabilities are furthering our clients' abilities to build once, deploy anywhere with a hybrid cloud architecture.

這些功能進一步增強了我們客戶使用混合雲架構構建一次，隨處部署的能力。

In Quantum, we announced our road map to reach 1,000-plus qubits by 2023.

在 Quantum 中，我們宣布了到 2023 年達到 1,000 多個量子位的路線圖。

The road map aims to take today's noisy small-scale devices towards the million-plus qubit devices of the future.

該路線圖旨在將當今嘈雜的小型設備推向未來的百萬以上量子位設備。

This kind of progress is essential to help industry and research organizations tackle important real-world problems that even today's most powerful classical computers cannot tackle.

這種進步對於幫助工業和研究組織解決重要的現實世界問題至關重要，即使是當今最強大的經典計算機也無法解決這些問題。

And in making our road map public, we are committing to meet a series of aggressive benchmarks that will help our company maintain its leadership in quantum computing and place our clients on the path to groundbreaking achievements.

在公開我們的路線圖時，我們致力於滿足一系列積極的基準，這將幫助我們的公司保持其在量子計算領域的領先地位，並使我們的客戶走上取得突破性成就的道路。

So we've made good progress with clients, our ecosystem and innovation.

因此，我們在客戶、我們的生態系統和創新方面取得了良好進展。

Regarding today's environment, clients continue to balance short-term challenges and opportunities for transformation.

對於當今的環境，客戶繼續在短期挑戰和轉型機遇之間取得平衡。

In the short term, they are focused on operational stability and cash preservation.

在短期內，他們專注於運營穩定性和現金保全。

We see this especially in our largest software license transactions and delays in some services projects.

我們在最大的軟件許可交易和某些服務項目的延遲中尤其看到了這一點。

But more of my conversations with CEOs are around how they become digital businesses.

但我與 CEO 的更多談話都是圍繞他們如何成為數字企業展開的。

How do they tap into open source innovation?

他們如何利用開源創新？

How can they securely deploy and manage their data and applications across various clouds?

他們如何跨各種雲安全地部署和管理數據和應用程序？

That's what we call hybrid cloud.

這就是我們所說的混合雲。

We see this as a continued momentum in Red Hat and the large client engagements that enable a journey to cloud, leveraging both OpenShift and application modernization.

我們認為這是 Red Hat 的持續發展勢頭，以及利用 OpenShift 和應用程序現代化實現雲之旅的大型客戶參與。

Now I'll turn it over to Jim Kavanaugh, who's going to take you through the results, and then we'll come back at the end for Q&A.

現在我將把它交給 Jim Kavanaugh，他將帶您了解結果，然後我們將在最後回來進行問答。

Thanks, Arvind.

謝謝，阿文德。

I'll start with a view of our overall performance.

我將從我們的整體表現開始。

We delivered $17.6 billion of revenue, expanded gross and pretax margins, reported operating earnings per share of $2.58 and generated solid free cash flow while increasing investments.

我們實現了 176 億美元的收入，擴大了毛利率和稅前利潤率，報告的每股營業收入為 2.58 美元，並在增加投資的同時產生了穩定的自由現金流。

Our balance sheet remains strong, and we continue to have ample liquidity.

我們的資產負債表依然強勁，我們繼續擁有充足的流動性。

Our revenue and gross profit performance was fairly consistent with the second quarter and reflects little change in the macroeconomic environment and client demand.

我們的收入和毛利表現與第二季度基本一致，反映宏觀經濟環境和客戶需求變化不大。

As we've previously discussed, our broad geographic footprint and client and portfolio mix provide some stability to our revenue, profit and cash flow.

正如我們之前所討論的那樣，我們廣泛的地理足跡以及客戶和投資組合為我們的收入、利潤和現金流提供了一定的穩定性。

As Arvind just mentioned, clients' near-term priorities continue to include operational stability, flexibility and cash preservation, which tends to favor OpEx over CapEx.

正如 Arvind 剛才提到的，客戶的近期優先事項繼續包括運營穩定性、靈活性和現金保存，這往往有利於 OpEx 而不是 CapEx。

This is resulting in some project delays and purchase deferrals, which we see in perpetual software licenses and project-oriented and volume-based services.

這導致了一些項目延遲和採購延期，我們在永久軟件許可和麵向項目和基於數量的服務中看到了這種情況。

Our transactional performance this quarter also reflects product cycle dynamics in our systems business.

我們本季度的交易業績也反映了我們系統業務的產品週期動態。

At the same time, the last 7 months have made it very clear that companies need to modernize their businesses to succeed in this new normal.

與此同時，過去 7 個月的情況表明，公司需要實現業務現代化才能在這種新常態下取得成功。

This is leading to an acceleration in digital transformations.

這導致了數字化轉型的加速。

Cloud and AI are at the center of these transformations.

雲和人工智能是這些轉型的核心。

And our open platform-centric model delivers greater innovation, higher productivity and more strategic optionality to our clients.

我們以開放平台為中心的模式為我們的客戶帶來了更大的創新、更高的生產力和更多的戰略選擇。

In the third quarter, client adoption of our platform continued to grow, with approximately 2,600 clients now using our container solutions.

第三季度，我們平台的客戶採用率繼續增長，目前約有 2,600 名客戶使用我們的容器解決方案。

We anniversaried the acquisition of Red Hat in early July, and Red Hat again delivered strong results in the period with normalized revenue growth of 16%.

我們在 7 月初慶祝了對 Red Hat 的收購，Red Hat 在此期間再次取得了強勁的業績，正常收入增長了 16%。

Red Hat leverages IBM's global reach and large account incumbency.

Red Hat 利用了 IBM 的全球影響力和龐大的客戶在職率。

Not only are the number of large deals increasing but also the size of these engagements is increasing as well, with the total value of these deals doubling over the last 12 months.

不僅大型交易的數量在增加，而且這些交易的規模也在增加，這些交易的總價值在過去 12 個月中翻了一番。

Within services, this quarter, we added about 125 services clients utilizing Red Hat technology.

在服務方面，本季度我們增加了大約 125 個使用紅帽技術的服務客戶。

And our GBS cloud-related signings were up over 25%.

我們與 GBS 雲相關的簽約數量增長了 25% 以上。

The platform model delivers compelling economics.

該平台模型提供了引人注目的經濟效益。

Our full stack capabilities drove over $24 billion of cloud revenue over the last 12 months, which is up 25%.

我們的全棧功能在過去 12 個月推動了超過 240 億美元的雲收入，增長了 25%。

We're investing to expand our capabilities, in GBS skills centered on hybrid cloud and intelligent workflows, in Red Hat's go-to-market to drive hybrid cloud adoption, in software, hybrid cloud and AI capabilities, including the Spanugo and WDG Automation acquisitions; in IBM Cloud capital for MZR build-outs; and in our ecosystem to drive adoption of OpenShift and our broader cloud capabilities.

我們正在投資以擴展我們的能力，以混合雲和智能工作流程為中心的 GBS 技能，Red Hat 的上市以推動混合雲的採用，軟件，混合雲和 AI 功能，包括 Spanugo 和 WDG Automation 收購;在 IBM Cloud Capital 中用於 MZR 擴建；在我們的生態系統中推動 OpenShift 和我們更廣泛的雲功能的採用。

These investments will accelerate in 2021, given the additional flexibility from our structural actions.

鑑於我們的結構性行動帶來的額外靈活性，這些投資將在 2021 年加速。

This quarter, our portfolio mix with strong software contribution, together with our focus on productivity, drove operating gross margin expansion of 160 basis points and operating pretax margin expansion of 140 basis points.

本季度，我們的產品組合與強大的軟件貢獻相結合，再加上我們對生產力的關注，推動營業毛利率增長 160 個基點，營業稅前利潤率增長 140 個基點。

With a 10-point year-to-year headwind in our operating tax rate, our net income margin was essentially flat.

由於營業稅率同比下降 10 個百分點，我們的淨利潤率基本持平。

Our cash and liquidity positions remained strong, fueled by our cash flow.

在現金流的推動下，我們的現金和流動性狀況依然強勁。

We generated $1.1 billion of free cash flow in the quarter and $4.8 billion year-to-date, which is down over $1 billion year-to-year.

我們在本季度產生了 11 億美元的自由現金流，年初至今為 48 億美元，同比下降超過 10 億美元。

We continue to have strong working capital performance and contribution from Red Hat, net of related interest.

扣除相關利息後，我們繼續擁有來自紅帽的強勁營運資金表現和貢獻。

These were offset by higher net capital expenditures and workforce rebalancing payments.

這些被更高的淨資本支出和勞動力再平衡支付所抵消。

Over the last year, we generated $10.8 billion of free cash flow, which is 136% of GAAP net income.

去年，我們產生了 108 億美元的自由現金流，佔 GAAP 淨收入的 136%。

We ended September with a cash balance of $15.8 billion, which is up $6.7 billion since year-end, while our debt was up $2.5 billion.

截至 9 月，我們的現金餘額為 158 億美元，比去年年底增加了 67 億美元，而我們的債務增加了 25 億美元。

I'll remind you we issued debt earlier this year out of an abundance of caution in taking advantage of attractive market dynamics.

我會提醒您，我們今年早些時候發行債券是出於對利用有吸引力的市場動態的高度謹慎。

We're in good shape to fund our upcoming maturities, including $4 billion to $5 billion in the fourth quarter.

我們處於良好狀態，可以為即將到期的債券提供資金，包括第四季度的 40 億至 50 億美元。

We'll end 2020 with debt down for the year.

我們將在 2020 年結束時減少全年的債務。

Now I'll turn to the segment performance, beginning with cloud and cognitive software.

現在我將轉向細分市場的表現，從雲和認知軟件開始。

Revenue was up 6%, driven by cloud and data platforms.

在雲和數據平台的推動下，收入增長了 6%。

This is a sequential improvement in the year-to-year performance despite a 4-point headwind from the wrap of the Red Hat acquisition in early July.

儘管在 7 月初完成對 Red Hat 的收購後出現了 4 個百分點的逆風，但這是同比業績的環比改善。

Software has a seasonally smaller transactional base in the third quarter.

軟件在第三季度的交易基礎季節性較小。

In a challenging transactional environment, this benefited us.

在充滿挑戰的交易環境中，這使我們受益匪淺。

Our cloud and data platforms delivered 19% revenue growth.

我們的雲和數據平台實現了 19% 的收入增長。

This was led by Red Hat's strong performance, with double-digit growth across both infrastructure software and application development and emerging technologies.

這得益於紅帽的強勁表現，在基礎設施軟件和應用程序開發以及新興技術方面實現了兩位數的增長。

A couple of weeks ago, Red Hat was recognized as the leader in multi-cloud container development platforms in Forrester's latest Wave report.

幾週前，紅帽在 Forrester 最新的 Wave 報告中被公認為多雲容器開發平台的領導者。

Leveraging this OpenShift container platform, our AI-powered Cloud Paks provide clients with ease of use and the ability to scale and secure operations across a variety of environments.

利用這個 OpenShift 容器平台，我們的 AI 驅動的 Cloud Paks 為客戶提供易用性以及跨各種環境擴展和保護操作的能力。

We're expanding and leveraging the IBM and Red Hat ecosystems, with over 180 partners now selling IBM Cloud Paks.

我們正在擴展和利用 IBM 和 Red Hat 生態系統，現在有超過 180 個合作夥伴在銷售 IBM Cloud Paks。

We're seeing good penetration in our large accounts.

我們在大客戶中看到了良好的滲透率。

We've now more than tripled the number of clients adopting Cloud Paks versus a year ago and added nearly 200 clients to our container platforms in the third quarter.

現在，與一年前相比，我們採用 Cloud Paks 的客戶數量增加了兩倍多，並在第三季度為我們的容器平台增加了近 200 個客戶。

Cognitive applications revenue trajectory improved to flat year-to-year, led by strength in security and supply chain.

在安全和供應鏈實力的帶動下，認知應用收入軌跡同比改善至持平。

In security, we had good demand for our threat management software and services as clients transform and manage their security operations.

在安全方面，隨著客戶轉變和管理他們的安全運營，我們對我們的威脅管理軟件和服務有很好的需求。

We're driving adoption of our Cloud Pak for Security and QRadar on the cloud, and identity and trust services also had good performance as we're helping clients with their secure digital transformations.

我們正在推動雲上採用我們的 Cloud Pak for Security 和 QRadar，身份和信任服務也有良好的表現，因為我們正在幫助客戶進行安全的數字化轉型。

Forrester and IDC just named our managed security services as an industry leader based on our integrated product and services capabilities.

Forrester 和 IDC 剛剛根據我們的集成產品和服務能力將我們的託管安全服務評為行業領導者。

We also had good performance in our supply chain software.

我們在供應鏈軟件方面也有不錯的表現。

Supply chain order management enables the shift to more flexible and scalable digital channels, which is a great value prop to our clients during the pandemic.

供應鏈訂單管理使我們能夠轉向更靈活和可擴展的數字渠道，這在大流行期間對我們的客戶來說是一個巨大的價值支柱。

Looking at the profit for this segment, we had strong profit and margin performance, driven primarily by Red Hat contribution.

從這部分的利潤來看，我們的利潤和利潤率表現強勁，主要受紅帽貢獻的推動。

Turning to Global Business Services.

轉向全球商業服務。

Revenue declined 6%, consistent with last quarter.

收入下降 6%，與上一季度一致。

As you'll recall, prior to the pandemic, GBS was growing revenue and signings.

您會記得，在大流行之前，GBS 的收入和簽約人數都在增長。

Since March, our revenue has reflected the economic environment and a change in client priorities, leading to project delays and less demand for more discretionary offerings.

自 3 月以來，我們的收入反映了經濟環境和客戶優先事項的變化，導致項目延遲和對更多可自由支配產品的需求減少。

But as we pivot our offerings and delivery to address these client needs, GBS posted double-digit signings growth in the third quarter and returned its backlog to growth.

但是，當我們調整我們的產品和交付以滿足這些客戶需求時，GBS 在第三季度實現了兩位數的簽約增長，並將其積壓訂單恢復增長。

This was driven by cloud strategy, application development and modernization and offerings that use data and AI to transform workflows.

這是由雲戰略、應用程序開發和現代化以及使用數據和人工智能來轉變工作流程的產品推動的。

As I mentioned earlier, our GBS cloud signings were up over 25%.

正如我之前提到的，我們的 GBS 雲簽約增長了 25% 以上。

We signed a number of large transformational contracts with a total value greater than $100 million, which will yield revenue over time.

我們簽署了多項總價值超過 1 億美元的大型轉型合同，這些合同將隨著時間的推移產生收入。

Our small deal performance generally followed the pandemic curve by geography but returned to growth overall for the quarter.

我們的小額交易表現總體上遵循地域的大流行曲線，但本季度整體恢復增長。

With the expertise and process knowledge gained through our application management incumbency, clients trust us to guide them through architectural decisions and facilitate their transformations, with a particular expertise in application modernization at scale across all on-prem, private and public cloud environments.

憑藉在我們的應用程序管理崗位上獲得的專業知識和流程知識，客戶相信我們可以指導他們做出架構決策並促進他們的轉型，我們在所有本地、私有和公共雲環境的大規模應用程序現代化方面具有特殊的專業知識。

GBS drives adoption of IBM's hybrid cloud platform and is a gateway to bring the wider set of IBM capabilities to enable a client's digital journey.

GBS 推動了 IBM 混合雲平台的採用，並且是引入更廣泛的 IBM 功能集以支持客戶數字化之旅的門戶。

For example, about 1/3 of Cloud Pak revenue results from GBS engagements.

例如，大約 1/3 的 Cloud Pak 收入來自 GBS 業務。

And this quarter, we added another 60 Red Hat client engagements with such clients as Delta Airlines, which Arvind mentioned earlier, but also Royal Bank of Canada, ITERGO, Florida Power & Light and Telefónica España.

本季度，我們又增加了 60 個 Red Hat 客戶參與，這些客戶包括 Arvind 之前提到的達美航空公司，以及加拿大皇家銀行、ITERGO、佛羅里達電力與照明公司和西班牙電信。

As our clients are transforming, we are also investing in our GBS business to position for growth in the future.

隨著我們的客戶正在轉型，我們也在投資 GBS 業務，為未來的增長做好準備。

We are continuing to invest in skills, resources, offerings and ecosystems.

我們將繼續投資於技能、資源、產品和生態系統。

We have implemented a virtual sales engagement model and are delivering nearly all of our more than 1,500 active paid garage engagements virtually.

我們已經實施了一個虛擬銷售參與模型，並且正在虛擬地提供我們幾乎所有的 1,500 多個活躍的付費車庫參與。

And we are taking the learnings from our initial shift to remote delivery to establish a new delivery model.

我們正在從最初轉向遠程交付中吸取教訓，以建立新的交付模型。

Dynamic delivery integrates technical foundations with virtualized methods and practices, enhanced with AI and automation to drive productivity, pace and quality.

動態交付將技術基礎與虛擬化方法和實踐相結合，並通過人工智能和自動化得到增強，以提高生產力、速度和質量。

As we apply the dynamic delivery principles across our client base, in the third quarter, we delivered more than 90% of our services remotely while maintaining stable quality and increasing Net Promoter Score.

由於我們在客戶群中應用動態交付原則，在第三季度，我們遠程交付了 90% 以上的服務，同時保持了穩定的質量並增加了淨推薦值。

Looking at the profit dynamics, with our focus on high-value offerings, productivity and strong operational discipline, we expanded GBS gross margin by 190 basis points.

從利潤動態來看，我們專注於高價值產品、生產力和強大的運營紀律，我們將 GBS 毛利率提高了 190 個基點。

In Global Technology Services, revenue was down 4%, fairly consistent with last quarter.

在全球技術服務方面，收入下降了 4%，與上一季度基本一致。

Infrastructure services continues to experience lower client-based business volumes in the more economically sensitive industries.

在對經濟更敏感的行業中，基礎設施服務繼續經歷較低的基於客戶的業務量。

And TSS performance reflects hardware product cycles and continuing volume impacts due to the pandemic.

TSS 性能反映了硬件產品週期和大流行對銷量的持續影響。

But many clients are taking a longer-term view and are looking to modernize their infrastructure to create agility and operational efficiency.

但許多客戶的眼光更長遠，希望實現基礎架構現代化，以提高靈活性和運營效率。

They turned to GTS' Managed Infrastructure Services business for its deep expertise in managing mission-critical infrastructures and its next-generation service delivery capabilities infused with AI and automation.

他們求助於 GTS 的託管基礎設施服務業務，因為它在管理任務關鍵型基礎設施方面擁有深厚的專業知識，而且其下一代服務交付能力融合了人工智能和自動化。

Coca-Cola European Partners is a great example.

可口可樂歐洲合作夥伴就是一個很好的例子。

We recently signed a multiyear agreement to accelerate their modernization journey, will help them to reduce operational expenses, increase IT resiliency and leverage AI to bring enhanced insights and deliver greater service to their customers.

我們最近簽署了一項多年期協議，以加速他們的現代化進程，幫助他們降低運營開支、提高 IT 彈性並利用 AI 來增強洞察力並為他們的客戶提供更好的服務。

GTS's signings were down 1% this quarter but up 12% year-to-date, with 19 deals over $100 million, including 8 this quarter.

GTS 的簽約本季度下降了 1%，但今年迄今增長了 12%，超過 1 億美元的交易有 19 筆，其中本季度有 8 筆。

In addition to new work, clients continue to make long-term commitments with significant contract renewals as we deliver new value.

除了新工作之外，隨著我們提供新價值，客戶繼續做出長期承諾並續簽重要合同。

This has resulted in the backlog year-to-year trajectory improving by approximately 2 points from the beginning of the year.

這導致積壓的年復一年軌跡比年初改善了大約 2 個百分點。

Turning to GTS profit, gross margin declined by roughly 80 basis points.

談到 GTS 利潤，毛利率下降了大約 80 個基點。

This was driven by the investments we are making in public cloud and the volume impacts, which come at a high margin.

這是由我們在公共雲中進行的投資以及高利潤率的數量影響所推動的。

Turning to systems.

轉向系統。

Revenue was down 16%, driven primarily by product cycle dynamics.

收入下降了 16%，主要受產品週期動態的推動。

IBM Z revenue was down 20%.

IBM Z 收入下降了 20%。

We launched the z15 toward the end of the third quarter last year.

我們在去年第三季度末推出了 z15。

We've had widespread adoption of both z15 and LinuxONE across many industries and countries in support of clients' hybrid cloud journeys.

我們已經在許多行業和國家廣泛採用 z15 和 LinuxONE，以支持客戶的混合雲之旅。

IBM Z is seeing record-setting volumes on Linux as clients leverage Red Hat OpenShift, Ansible and our cloud-native DevOps offerings.

隨著客戶利用 Red Hat OpenShift、Ansible 和我們的雲原生 DevOps 產品，IBM Z 在 Linux 上看到了創紀錄的數量。

At the same time, this pandemic has impacted our historical IBM Z cycle dynamics, which is playing out differently by industry.

與此同時，這種流行病影響了我們歷史上的 IBM Z 週期動態，這在各個行業都有所不同。

This platform has proved invaluable to our clients in areas like banking and financial markets, helping them rapidly and remotely scale up capacity and respond to unprecedented market volatility.

事實證明，該平台對我們在銀行和金融市場等領域的客戶具有無可估量的價值，可幫助他們快速遠程擴展容量並應對前所未有的市場波動。

As a result, these clients accelerated their adoption of z15 within the cycle.

因此，這些客戶在周期內加速了對 z15 的採用。

That said, in many other industries, clients remain focused on cash preservation during this pandemic.

也就是說，在許多其他行業中，客戶在這種大流行期間仍然關注現金保全。

This dichotomy and client buying behaviors impacted our performance in the third quarter and will lengthen the adoption curve of the z15 cycle.

這種二分法和客戶購買行為影響了我們第三季度的業績，並將延長 z15 週期的採用曲線。

But by the end of this cycle, we have an opportunity to be fairly consistent with prior cycles.

但到本週期結束時，我們有機會與之前的周期保持一致。

I'll remind you, in the fourth quarter, we'll be wrapping on a very strong performance from last year when we were up 63%.

我會提醒你，在第四季度，我們將結束去年非常強勁的表現，當時我們增長了 63%。

These cycle dynamics impacted our storage revenue as well, with performance driven by declines in high-end storage.

這些週期動態也影響了我們的存儲收入，性能受到高端存儲下降的推動。

Now as always, before the Q&A, I'll bring it back up to the IBM level.

現在，一如既往，在問答環節之前，我將把它帶回 IBM 層面。

We're seeing tremendous opportunity to help our clients become digital businesses.

我們看到了幫助我們的客戶成為數字企業的巨大機會。

Our technology-centric hybrid cloud platform, deep industry expertise, and growing ecosystem are enabling us to accelerate these transformations.

我們以技術為中心的混合雲平台、深厚的行業專業知識和不斷發展的生態系統使我們能夠加速這些轉型。

The value we provide clients is evident this quarter in our cloud revenue growth, in our continued momentum in Red Hat, and in our strong GBS signings, driven by cloud and application modernization offerings.

本季度我們為客戶提供的價值體現在我們的雲收入增長、我們在 Red Hat 的持續發展勢頭以及我們在雲和應用程序現代化產品的推動下的強勁 GBS 簽約。

And now we're accelerating IBM's hybrid cloud platform strategy with increased focus and investments to drive future growth.

現在，我們正在加速 IBM 的混合雲平台戰略，增加關注和投資以推動未來增長。

We're taking structural actions to simplify and streamline our business.

我們正在採取結構性行動來簡化和精簡我們的業務。

And as we discussed earlier this month, we expect a fourth quarter charge to our operating results of about $2.3 billion.

正如我們本月早些時候所討論的那樣，我們預計第四季度的經營業績費用約為 23 億美元。

The savings from these actions will be reinvested in areas like hybrid cloud, data and AI, security and emerging technologies.

這些行動節省的資金將重新投資於混合雲、數據和人工智能、安全和新興技術等領域。

With our focused hybrid cloud platform strategy and the increased investments starting now, we expect to drive sustainable mid-single-digit growth after the separation of newco is complete.

憑藉我們專注的混合雲平台戰略和從現在開始增加的投資，我們預計在 newco 完成分離後將推動可持續的中個位數增長。

In the near term, the rate and pace of recovery remains uncertain, and as a consequence, we have not seen a fundamental shift in overall demand levels.

短期內，復甦的速度和步伐仍不確定，因此，我們沒有看到整體需求水平發生根本性轉變。

Given this uncertainty and consistent with our direction for most of this year, we are not going to provide guidance.

鑑於這種不確定性並且與我們今年大部分時間的方向一致，我們不會提供指導。

But I will remind you, from a historical perspective, the fourth quarter seasonally is our strongest quarter in terms of revenue and operating earnings per share due to our high-value software and hardware transactions.

但我會提醒您，從歷史的角度來看，由於我們的高價值軟件和硬件交易，第四季度的季節性收入和每股營業利潤是我們最強勁的季度。

Looking at our year-to-year dynamics at the end of 2020, we're wrapping on a strong fourth quarter of 2019 when we had a very strong software performance, our first full quarter of z15 availability and our first full quarter of Red Hat contribution.

看看我們在 2020 年底的年度動態，我們將在 2019 年第四季度取得強勁的表現，當時我們擁有非常強勁的軟件性能、我們的第一個完整季度的 z15 可用性和我們的第一個完整季度的 Red Hat貢獻。

So going into this fourth quarter, as always, we have a lot of work to do.

所以進入第四季度，一如既往，我們有很多工作要做。

It's our largest transactional quarter.

這是我們最大的交易季度。

We'll be focusing our investments in hybrid cloud and AI, and of course, we're starting the detailed work to separate our Managed Infrastructure Services business.

我們將把投資重點放在混合雲和人工智能上，當然，我們正在開始詳細的工作以分離我們的託管基礎設施服務業務。

We're confident in the focus and direction of our business and what it means for our future.

我們對我們業務的重點和方向及其對我們未來的意義充滿信心。

Arvind, let me turn it back over to you.

Arvind，讓我把它還給你。

Thanks, Jim.

謝謝，吉姆。

I'm going to add just one final thought before the Q&A.

在問答環節之前，我只想添加一個最後的想法。

We are managing for the long term.

我們正在長期管理。

We are making strategic decisions, taking actions and increasing investments today to better position our business and accelerate our top line growth on a sustainable basis.

今天，我們正在製定戰略決策、採取行動並增加投資，以更好地定位我們的業務並在可持續的基礎上加速我們的收入增長。

Patricia, let's go to the Q&A.

Patricia，讓我們進入問答環節。

Thank you, Arvind.

謝謝你，阿文德。

Before we begin the Q&A, I'd like to mention a couple of items.

在我們開始問答之前，我想提幾個問題。

First, we've included supplemental information at the end of the presentation.

首先，我們在演示文稿的末尾包含了補充信息。

(Operator Instructions) Operator, let's please open it up for questions.

（操作員說明）操作員，請打開它提問。

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員說明）

Our first question comes from Matt Cabral with Crédit Suisse.

我們的第一個問題來自 Crédit Suisse 的 Matt Cabral。

Arvind, you touched on this briefly during your prepared remarks.

Arvind，您在準備好的發言中簡要談到了這一點。

I was wondering if you could expand a little bit more on the health of the wider IT spending landscape you're seeing around the world.

我想知道你是否可以進一步擴展你在世界各地看到的更廣泛的 IT 支出格局的健康狀況。

And you mentioned delays you're seeing in a couple of areas within the portfolio.

你提到了你在投資組合中的幾個領域看到的延遲。

Just wondering when you think those deals will start coming through, particularly as we're starting to think about the puts and takes heading into 2021.

只是想知道您認為這些交易何時會開始達成，特別是當我們開始考慮進入 2021 年的看跌期權和看跌期權時。

All right.

好的。

First, thanks for the question, Matt.

首先，謝謝你的問題，馬特。

So a few comments on -- because you asked about portfolio areas.

所以一些評論 - 因為你詢問了投資組合領域。

You also asked about clients, and you also asked about geographies.

您還詢問了客戶，還詢問了地理位置。

And it all varies, but we are seeing first from large client deals as well as services projects.

這一切都各不相同，但我們首先從大客戶交易和服務項目中看到。

Let me just reiterate but add a little bit of color to what both Jim and I said in our prepared remarks.

讓我重申一下，但為吉姆和我在準備好的發言中所說的話添加一點色彩。

While we are seeing very healthy growth in some parts of both software and systems, it's kind of schizophrenic, but we're also seeing people pause.

雖然我們看到軟件和系統的某些部分非常健康地增長，但它有點精神分裂，但我們也看到人們停下來。

Maybe they're pausing because of their industry or because of geography or because they're into a cash conservation mode.

也許他們因為他們的行業或地理原因而暫停，或者因為他們進入了現金節約模式。

We think it's a pause.

我們認為這是一個暫停。

We don't believe it's a decline forever.

我們不認為這是永遠的下降。

We do believe that some of those deals come back, and we tend to see that.

我們確實相信其中一些交易會回來，而且我們傾向於看到這一點。

We saw that from the first to the second, second to the third quarter, et cetera.

我們從第一節到第二節，第二節到第三節等等都看到了這一點。

So that's one part.

這是一部分。

Now we have also talked about it, there is about in 70% of the industries that we are in, we are not seeing any pauses.

現在我們也談到了它，我們所處的行業中大約有 70%，我們沒有看到任何停頓。

We see clients that are healthy.

我們看到健康的客戶。

We see that their business are healthy.

我們看到他們的業務很健康。

About 30%, and that should not be a surprise to anybody on this call, we do tend to see some temporary softness.

大約 30%，這對此次電話會議的任何人來說都不足為奇，我們確實傾向於看到一些暫時的疲軟。

And when we think about brick-and-mortar retail, you think about airlines, you think about hospitality, I think it's not a surprise that some of those.

當我們想到實體零售時，你會想到航空公司，你會想到酒店，我認為其中一些不足為奇。

Now we also tend to be with larger clients, so we don't believe that they have a sustainability issue by and large.

現在我們也傾向於與更大的客戶打交道，所以我們認為他們總體上沒有可持續性問題。

It will tend to come back.

它往往會回來。

So that's kind of the flavor under it.

這就是它的味道。

But then as I begin to look forward, Matt, because you're asking that question also, it's really hard to predict the fourth quarter.

但是當我開始展望未來時，馬特，因為你也在問這個問題，所以很難預測第四季度。

That's why Jim and I are pausing on giving guidance here.

這就是吉姆和我在這裡暫停提供指導的原因。

However, when we look at are people interested in these parts of the software portfolio, whether it's supply chain and security, as Jim mentioned, whether it's cloud and data platform, which includes both of Red Hat and our Cloud Paks and other technologies they find essential, we find that those will come back.

然而，當我們看到人們是否對軟件組合的這些部分感興趣時，無論是供應鍊和安全，正如 Jim 提到的，還是雲和數據平台，包括 Red Hat 和我們的 Cloud Paks 以及他們發現的其他技術必不可少的，我們發現那些會回來。

We find our Transaction Processing Platform or TPP get somewhat aligned to the mainframe capacity increases.

我們發現我們的事務處理平台或 TPP 在某種程度上與大型機容量的增加保持一致。

As those go through, you tend to see, I'll call it, an alignment.

隨著這些過程的進行，您往往會看到，我稱之為對齊。

It's not necessarily identical, but there's some alignment therein.

它不一定完全相同，但其中有一些對齊方式。

And then let's not forget that as our Global Business Services and other SIs do transformation projects, they also tend to pull through software more in cloud and data platform than in other areas.

然後我們不要忘記，當我們的全球商業服務和其他 SI 進行轉型項目時，他們也傾向於在雲和數據平台中比在其他領域更多地使用軟件。

So I'll sort of give you that color sort of across the client set, across the industries and across different parts of the portfolio, Matt.

所以我會給你那種跨客戶群、跨行業和跨投資組合不同部分的顏色，馬特。

Our next question comes from Tien-Tsin Huang with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Tien-Tsin Huang。

Looks like services signings did bounce back nicely a little bit here, so it sounds like some larger transactions coming back.

看起來服務簽約在這裡確實反彈得很好，所以聽起來像是一些更大的交易回來了。

I want to understand, maybe if you don't mind, just this transition from going with a tighter integration of GBS and GTS to the separation now.

我想知道，如果您不介意的話，我想了解的只是從 GBS 和 GTS 的更緊密集成到現在分離的過渡。

Could we see services results and bookings maybe weaken in the short term before ticking up again?

在再次回升之前，我們能否看到服務結果和預訂在短期內可能會減弱？

I know the signings were good here, but just trying to think about this fourth quarter and the first quarter transition given the changeover, if that makes sense.

我知道這裡的簽約很好，但只是想考慮一下第四季度和第一季度的過渡，如果這有意義的話。

Yes.

是的。

Tien-Tsin, this is Jim.

天進，這是吉姆。

I'll take that one.

我會拿那個。

Let's talk a little bit about the quarter and what we just finished with regards to services signings.

讓我們談談本季度以及我們剛剛完成的服務簽約情況。

We're pretty pleased, given the overall macroeconomic environment and the rate and pace and the continued uncertainty, the team's executed very well.

我們非常高興，考慮到整體宏觀經濟環境、速度和步伐以及持續的不確定性，團隊執行得非常好。

$9.5 billion of signings, up 5%.

簽約金額 95 億美元，增長 5%。

We've got $108 billion backlog right now.

我們現在有 1080 億美元的積壓訂單。

That's flat at actual rates, down 1% at constant currency.

按實際匯率計算持平，按固定匯率計算下降 1%。

And to your point, we saw actually very good progress in large transformational deals.

就你的觀點而言，我們在大型轉型交易中看到了非常好的進展。

I think 11 in the quarter in excess of $100 million and 8 of those in our GTS Managed Infrastructure Services business, which saw a very strong renewal rate that talks to the value of innovation that they bring to our client set overall.

我認為本季度有 11 個超過 1 億美元，其中 8 個在我們的 GTS 託管基礎設施服務業務中，這些業務的更新率非常高，這說明了它們為我們的整體客戶群帶來的創新價值。

And that has led to year-to-date, I think we said in the prepared remarks, GTS up 12% signings.

這導致年初至今，我想我們在準備好的評論中說過，GTS 的簽約人數增加了 12%。

And I'll remind you, that was off of a third quarter last year where we grew 20%.

我會提醒你，這是去年第三季度我們增長 20% 的結果。

So we're pretty pleased there.

所以我們在那裡很高興。

And that's led to a 2-point backlog improvement in our GTS business since January.

這導致我們的 GTS 業務自 1 月以來積壓了 2 個百分點。

But where we really have seen a marked inflection of some signs of demand change is in GBS.

但我們真正看到一些需求變化跡象的明顯拐點是在 GBS 中。

While the revenue kind of played out consistent with 2Q, our signings were up double digits.

雖然收入與第二季度一致，但我們的簽約數量增長了兩位數。

I think it was our third largest signings quarter almost in history and are both large and small deals overall.

我認為這幾乎是我們歷史上第三大簽約季度，並且總體上是大筆和小筆交易。

And that was really a testament to our GBS capability around application modernization and being our clients' provider of choice for digital transformation and journey to cloud.

這確實證明了我們的 GBS 在應用程序現代化方面的能力，並成為我們客戶數字化轉型和雲之旅的首選供應商。

So we feel pretty good about that.

所以我們對此感覺很好。

It's good early trends.

這是很好的早期趨勢。

We got a very nice pipeline of transformational deals here in the fourth quarter.

第四季度，我們在這裡獲得了非常好的轉型交易渠道。

And again, given our announcement 10 days ago, we're spending a lot of time with our clients to make sure we minimize disruption, ensure stability and provide that client value going forward.

再一次，鑑於我們 10 天前的公告，我們正在花費大量時間與我們的客戶一起確保我們將中斷降到最低，確保穩定性並為客戶提供未來的價值。

Our next question comes from Toni Sacconaghi with Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自 Toni Sacconaghi 和 Bernstein。

I know you're not commenting on Q4 guidance but maybe you can tell us how to think about it.

我知道你不是在評論第四季度的指導意見，但也許你可以告訴我們如何考慮它。

Typical seasonality might be for revenue up about $3 billion.

典型的季節性可能會使收入增加約 30 億美元。

If demand is not really changing, why shouldn't we assume normal seasonality?

如果需求沒有真正發生變化，為什麼我們不應該假設正常的季節性呢？

And is that kind of the right number or framework?

這樣的數字或框架是正確的嗎？

And then Arvind, I'm wondering if you could just comment on capital allocation going forward.

然後是 Arvind，我想知道你是否可以就未來的資本配置發表評論。

Your dividend is $6 billion a year.

你的股息是每年 60 億美元。

It's basically been 100% of your free cash flow year-to-date in the last -- you haven't paid down any debt.

它基本上是你去年迄今為止自由現金流的 100%——你還沒有償還任何債務。

You haven't done any deals without taking on incremental debt this year.

今年你沒有在不承擔增量債務的情況下完成任何交易。

So if you really are managing the business for the long term and growth is a priority, are you considering lowering or suspending the dividend?

因此，如果您真的在長期管理業務並且增長是重中之重，您是否正在考慮降低或暫停派息？

Or is the dividend safe?

還是分紅安全？

And if it is, why wouldn't you be more aggressive in allocating more cash to growth going forward?

如果是這樣，您為什麼不更積極地分配更多現金用於未來的增長？

Okay.

好的。

Toni, this is Jim.

托尼，這是吉姆。

Thanks for the question, multi-part.

感謝您的問題，多部分。

But let me take the first piece around -- color around fourth quarter, and then Arvind can handle the capital allocation discussion around the strategy, and I obviously can handle some of the numbers overall.

但是讓我先看看第四季度左右的顏色，然後 Arvind 可以處理圍繞該戰略的資本分配討論，我顯然可以處理一些總體數字。

But first, as we talked about in prepared remarks and you indicated, the rate and pace of the recovery we still see as uncertain.

但首先，正如我們在準備好的發言中所談到的以及您指出的那樣，我們認為複甦的速度和步伐仍然不確定。

And there's no real fundamental change in client buying priorities around cash preservation, around operational stability.

圍繞現金保存和運營穩定性的客戶購買優先級沒有真正的根本變化。

And consistent with prior quarters, that has led us to not give guidance.

與前幾個季度一致，這導致我們沒有給出指導。

But let me give you some color.

但是讓我給你一些顏色。

First, we talked about, at the onset of COVID-19, that this has only accelerated our clients' digital transformation and journey to the cloud.

首先，我們談到，在 COVID-19 爆發之初，這只會加速我們客戶的數字化轉型和雲之旅。

And you see that playing out in our results over the last few quarters with continued very good momentum in our cloud business and in our Red Hat business.

您會看到，在過去幾個季度中，我們的雲業務和 Red Hat 業務持續保持良好勢頭，這在我們的業績中得到了體現。

And when we look at fourth quarter, we see very healthy pipelines in hybrid cloud, AI solutions, app modernization, cloud transformation services within GBS.

當我們看第四季度時，我們看到混合雲、人工智能解決方案、應用程序現代化、GBS 內的雲轉型服務的管道非常健康。

Red Hat actual backlog growth is accelerating, up 23% at $4.7 billion.

紅帽實際積壓訂單增長正在加速，增長 23%，達到 47 億美元。

And we see pretty healthy pipelines in our cloud and data platform and in our cognitive apps business, led by Cloud Paks and security.

我們在 Cloud Paks 和安全性的領導下，在我們的雲和數據平台以及認知應用程序業務中看到了相當健康的管道。

The 2 things that we called out though in our prepared remarks that we've talked about the last few quarters and those are headwinds.

儘管我們在過去幾個季度討論過的準備好的評論中提到了兩件事，但這些都是不利因素。

And first, in particular around TPP, our clients committed to that platform.

首先，特別是圍繞 TPP，我們的客戶致力於該平台。

We had a very strong 2019.

我們有一個非常強勁的 2019 年。

And given the environment and the focus on cash preservation, we don't see that coming back in the fourth quarter.

考慮到環境和對現金保存的關注，我們認為第四季度不會出現這種情況。

It's going to be pretty similar to the first half.

這將與上半年非常相似。

And the second is our mainframe cycle, coming off of the significant portion of the growth last year, up 63%.

第二個是我們的大型機週期，去年增長了 63%，佔增長的很大一部分。

So when you look at SKU overall in the fourth quarter, 3Q to 4Q, yes, I mean, there will be no reason not to expect a normal SKU with regards to revenue.

因此，當您在第四季度（第 3 季度到第 4 季度）整體查看 SKU 時，是的，我的意思是，沒有理由不期待正常的 SKU 收入。

Some slight improvement in our software portfolio, offset by TPP, and we'll wrap on the hardware piece.

我們的軟件產品組合略有改進，但被 TPP 抵消了，我們將包裝硬件部分。

Now in terms of EPS, you saw the very strong fundamentals in third quarter.

現在就每股收益而言，你看到了第三季度非常強勁的基本面。

Coming off a strong 2Q, operating gross margins up 160 basis points, operating pretax margin up 140 basis points.

第二季度表現強勁，營業毛利率上升 160 個基點，稅前營業利潤率上升 140 個基點。

We feel very confident in the strength of our balance sheet, our cash and liquidity position to make sure that we can continue to invest in our business.

我們對資產負債表的實力、現金和流動性狀況非常有信心，以確保我們能夠繼續投資於我們的業務。

We're starting that immediately here in fourth quarter around technology, around innovation, around skills, around capabilities, and you'll see that play out in addition to the $2.3 billion structural charge.

我們將在第四季度立即開始圍繞技術、創新、技能、能力，除了 23 億美元的結構性費用之外，你還會看到這一點。

So when you look at EPS, you all know the numbers as well as I do.

因此，當您查看 EPS 時，您和我一樣都知道這些數字。

Over the last X number of years, our 3Q to 4Q pre the $2.3 billion charge has been a nice growth of about 50 -- mid-50s.

在過去的 X 年裡，我們的 3Q 到 4Q 在 23 億美元的費用之前增長了大約 50 - 50 年代中期。

We should do maybe a little bit better than that but I don't think anything substantial above that.

我們應該做得可能比這更好一點，但我認為沒有什麼比這更重要的了。

So we see pretty similar dynamics.

所以我們看到了非常相似的動態。

Arvind, over to you.

阿文德，交給你了。

Thanks, Jim.

謝謝，吉姆。

And Toni, thank you for asking the capital allocation question, a really important piece of our growth strategy going forward.

托尼，感謝你提出資本配置問題，這是我們未來增長戰略中非常重要的一部分。

So a couple of points there for context.

所以這裡有幾點是為了上下文。

One, when we acquired and closed on Red Hat, we did commit to pausing share repurchase until we had deleveraged and gotten back to our target ratios of debt-to-EBITDA.

第一，當我們收購併關閉 Red Hat 時，我們確實承諾暫停股票回購，直到我們去槓桿化並回到我們的債務與 EBITDA 的目標比率。

We are on track to do that.

我們正朝著這個方向努力。

We fully intend to do that, and we had said that we'll get there by 2022.

我們完全打算這樣做，我們曾說過我們將在 2022 年實現這一目標。

So that's part 1. And so some of the cash you see on the balance sheet will be used towards that purpose because you said, you're not paying down debt, but you'll see us begin to pay that down to get towards those ratios, part 1.

這就是第 1 部分。因此，您在資產負債表上看到的一些現金將用於該目的，因為您說過，您沒有償還債務，但您會看到我們開始償還債務以實現這些目的比率，第 1 部分。

Part 2, we are committed to a stable and growing dividend.

第 2 部分，我們致力於穩定且不斷增長的紅利。

Given our investors, given that how much they depend upon that and how much we have heard about that on feedback, we intend to keep a stable and growing dividend.

考慮到我們的投資者，考慮到他們在多大程度上依賴於此以及我們從反饋中聽到了多少，我們打算保持穩定和不斷增長的股息。

That means everything else is up for what is prudent for managing for the long term.

這意味著其他一切都取決於長期管理的謹慎。

And so when we talk about increased investments, and on October 8, I was clear, we are going to both increase expenses organically in order to be able to grow in both software and in GBS, but we are also going to be quite acquisitive in the areas that we have called out.

因此，當我們談論增加投資時，在 10 月 8 日，我很清楚，我們都將有機地增加支出，以便能夠在軟件和 GBS 方面實現增長，但我們也將非常收購我們呼籲的領域。

We will be acquisitive in GBS.

我們將收購 GBS。

And we will also be acquisitive in the software areas around hybrid cloud, data, AI, security and in emerging technologies such as Quantum.

我們還將收購圍繞混合雲、數據、人工智能、安全和新興技術（如 Quantum）的軟件領域。

So when you see us do that, I think we are going to be doing exactly what you're asking.

因此，當您看到我們這樣做時，我認為我們將完全按照您的要求去做。

Will we be allocating more cash to growth going forward?

我們會為未來的增長分配更多現金嗎？

I think the simple answer to that is, yes, with no qualifications therein.

我認為對此的簡單回答是，是的，其中沒有任何條件。

Our next question will come from Wamsi Mohan with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題將來自美國銀行的 Wamsi Mohan。

The second half was going to deliver some strong margin uplift from the productivity actions, and we saw some of that come through in the third quarter.

下半年將通過生產力行動帶來一些強勁的利潤率提升，我們在第三季度看到了其中的一些提升。

Can you help us with how much more productivity benefit is yet to come in the fourth quarter?

您能否幫助我們了解第四季度還有多少生產力優勢？

And as you talk about the reinvestment of the savings associated with the actions you just announced last week, can you give us a segment view on that reinvestment, please?

當你談到與你上周剛剛宣布的行動相關的儲蓄再投資時，你能給我們一個關於再投資的細分觀點嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So Wamsi, thank you very much for the question overall.

所以 Wamsi，非常感謝你提出這個問題。

If you look at the structural actions we took as we entered 2020, remember, we talked a lot about this in January pre COVID on how we were going to reposition our businesses as we move forward.

如果你看看我們在進入 2020 年時採取的結構性行動，請記住，我們在 COVID 之前的 1 月份就這個問題談了很多關於我們將如何在我們前進的過程中重新定位我們的業務。

You see that actually playing out in our results.

你看到這實際上在我們的結果中發揮作用。

I mean our margins in the second quarter were up roughly 150 basis points at gross margin level.

我的意思是我們第二季度的毛利率在毛利率水平上增長了大約 150 個基點。

And in third quarter, we just came off margins that are up 160 basis points at the gross level and operating margins that are up 140 basis points at the pretax level.

在第三季度，我們剛剛實現了毛利潤率增長 160 個基點和稅前利潤率增長 140 個基點。

So I think you're seeing that productivity and the fundamental change in the way we're actually driving and running the business now adapting, given the onset of COVID-19 and the implications to the economic environment.

因此，考慮到 COVID-19 的出現及其對經濟環境的影響，我認為您正在看到生產力和我們實際推動和運營業務的方式發生根本性變化。

If you take a look at the fourth quarter actions overall, we talked about 10 days ago the strategic action around separating out and creating 2 market-leading companies and creating an independent publicly traded company around our Managed Infrastructure Services business.

如果你看一下第四季度的整體行動，我們在 10 天前談到了圍繞分離和創建 2 家市場領先公司以及圍繞我們的託管基礎設施服務業務創建獨立上市公司的戰略行動。

That was going to be about a $2.3 billion charge.

那將是大約 23 億美元的費用。

And if you remember what I said at the time, and you can kind of think of this as in 1/3 buckets.

如果你還記得我當時說的話，你可以把它想像成 1/3 桶。

The first is about 1/3 of that is going to go to help improve the EBITDA growth profile in our newco business to be on a trajectory to achieve, post separation, a double-digit EBITDA growth profile.

首先是大約 1/3 的資金將用於幫助改善我們新公司業務的 EBITDA 增長狀況，以便在分離後實現兩位數的 EBITDA 增長狀況。

The second bucket or second 1/3 of that was in any business, when you separate out, you're going to create stranded cost and inefficiency.

第二個桶或其中的第二個 1/3 在任何業務中，當你分開時，你將創造擱淺的成本和低效率。

And we're committed to addressing that in 2021 with this charge.

我們致力於在 2021 年通過這項收費解決這個問題。

And then the third piece is we are making significant investments to capitalize on the $1 trillion hybrid cloud market opportunity, and the third bucket is going to be used for additional finflex that is going to be centered around technology, innovation, people, skills, capability, ecosystems and also, as Arvind just answered, around inorganic plays overall.

然後第三部分是我們正在進行大量投資以利用 1 萬億美元的混合雲市場機會，第三部分將用於以技術、創新、人員、技能、能力為中心的額外 finflex ，生態系統，而且，正如 Arvind 剛剛回答的那樣，圍繞無機遊戲。

So I'll take that one.

所以我會拿那個。

And then Arvind, do you want to take the second one?

然後是 Arvind，你想要第二個嗎？

Yes.

是的。

So when you look at the different segments that we're in, Wamsi, so this is straightaway in the 4 areas that we had outlined.

因此，當您查看我們所處的不同細分市場時，Wamsi，這在我們概述的 4 個領域中是直接的。

Number one, we are going to be increasing investments in GBS in order to get more skills in the areas where we are seeing demand.

第一，我們將增加對 GBS 的投資，以便在我們看到需求的領域獲得更多技能。

Second, we're going to be increasing investments in our ecosystem.

其次，我們將增加對我們生態系統的投資。

And in our ecosystem, there are large partners.

在我們的生態系統中，有大型合作夥伴。

We just announced ServiceNow last week, but we announced Adobe a couple of months before that.

我們上周剛剛宣布了 ServiceNow，但我們在此之前幾個月宣布了 Adobe。

You've seen us with Salesforce.

您已經看到我們使用 Salesforce。

You've seen us with others.

你見過我們和其他人在一起。

So we are going to be increasing our investment and how we work with those.

因此，我們將增加投資以及我們如何與這些投資合作。

But there are also hundreds of ISVs, not just the very large ones, with whom we are also working to get them on our hybrid cloud platform, on our cloud properties.

但也有數百家 ISV，不僅僅是非常大的 ISV，我們也在與他們合作，讓他們在我們的混合雲平台上，在我們的雲資產上。

And so how do we invest in that in order to drive growth down the road is the second piece.

因此，我們如何投資以推動未來的增長是第二部分。

I'll put that in the ecosystem pocket.

我會把它放在生態系統口袋裡。

Third, we're going to be increasing investments in our core software areas in terms of the hybrid cloud platform itself.

第三，我們將在混合雲平臺本身方面增加對核心軟件領域的投資。

And you saw that in some of my prepared remarks on the innovations we are driving into the Red Hat technologies.

你在我準備好的一些關於我們正在推動紅帽技術創新的評論中看到了這一點。

But in addition to that, in terms of data and AI, in security and others, we're going to drive innovation in there.

但除此之外，在數據和人工智能方面，在安全性和其他方面，我們將推動那裡的創新。

And as you put all those areas together, let's not also forget, newco is also going to be seeing increased investments around automation, around infrastructure modernization against working with different cloud partners.

當你把所有這些領域放在一起時，我們也不要忘記，新公司還將看到圍繞自動化、基礎設施現代化以及與不同雲合作夥伴合作的投資增加。

When you think of those 4 buckets, it now goes pretty much across all of IBM segments obviously if you think about it, because we want it to be our current balance.

當你想到這 4 個桶時，如果你仔細想想，它現在幾乎涵蓋了 IBM 的所有部門，因為我們希望它成為我們當前的平衡點。

It's not identical growth, but we want all of the segments to be contributing to growth.

這不是相同的增長，但我們希望所有細分市場都為增長做出貢獻。

And so we're going to be driving in terms of organic R&D, in terms of working with certain areas where there's a lot of demand.

因此，我們將在有機研發方面，在與需求量很大的某些領域合作方面進行推動。

So you got to get skills in there.

所以你必須在那裡獲得技能。

And of course, as we add M&A, that's not quite directly from these buckets of money, but the M&A will also add to added expenses.

當然，當我們增加併購時，這並不是直接來自這些錢，但併購也會增加額外的費用。

Eventually, the moment you complete an acquisition, it's expense in these different segments.

最終，在你完成收購的那一刻，它就是這些不同部分的費用。

Next, we will hear from Katy Huberty with Morgan Stanley.

接下來，我們將聽取摩根士丹利的 Katy Huberty 的意見。

Arvind, just looking at the cloud and cognitive software business before you closed on the Red Hat acquisition, that was a growing business.

Arvind，在你結束對 Red Hat 的收購之前，看看雲和認知軟件業務，這是一個不斷增長的業務。

Today, on a pro forma basis with Red Hat, it's declining mid-single digits.

今天，在與 Red Hat 的預估基礎上，它正在下降中個位數。

Would love your thoughts on why we're not seeing a stronger growth rate.

很想知道為什麼我們沒有看到更強勁的增長率。

Is it entirely macro-driven?

完全是宏觀驅動的嗎？

And what are the steps and time line for getting that software business back to pro forma growth, given how important it is to hitting this mid-single-digit longer-term growth target?

考慮到實現這個中個位數長期增長目標的重要性，讓該軟件業務恢復預估增長的步驟和時間表是什麼？

Thanks, Katy, and you got it correct.

謝謝，凱蒂，你做對了。

It is a critical part of us getting towards a mid-single-digit growth target.

這是我們實現中個位數增長目標的關鍵部分。

So that is essential.

所以這是必不可少的。

So as we begin to go under it and you look at it for the last few months, I would tell you that some of it is indeed -- macro may be the wrong word, but I think there's 2 elements in there.

因此，當我們開始深入研究它並且您在過去幾個月中查看它時，我會告訴您其中一些確實是 - 宏觀可能是錯誤的詞，但我認為其中有 2 個元素。

People are pausing certain large software license transactions, and that is perhaps the macro environment.

人們正在暫停某些大型軟件許可交易，這可能就是宏觀環境。

And then there is the TPP piece, which is inside of the software segment, which is driven more, as I've said before, in terms of the alignment to the mainframe capacity that's in the ground.

然後是 TPP 部分，它位於軟件部分內部，正如我之前所說，它在與地面大型機容量的對齊方面受到更多驅動。

We saw very good growth in the fourth quarter of last year.

我們在去年第四季度看到了非常好的增長。

We saw that tied to that.

我們看到與此相關。

And as you begin to see that slow down in the third quarter of this year, we do expect to, I think, see that continue for some time.

當你在今年第三季度開始看到這種放緩時，我認為我們確實希望看到這種情況持續一段時間。

But within that, when I look at our cognitive applications and we look at cloud and data platform, we do see healthy growth there.

但在這方面，當我審視我們的認知應用程序以及我們審視雲和數據平台時，我們確實看到了那裡的健康增長。

But I expect to see it continue.

但我希望看到它繼續下去。

As we invest more into that and as we invest more into Red Hat, I would expect that as we get through the next year, we are going to see that, that should be able to more than offset anything that happens inside TPP.

隨著我們在這方面的投資越來越多，隨著我們對 Red Hat 的投資越來越多，我預計明年我們會看到，這應該能夠抵消 TPP 內部發生的任何事情。

And just to give a sense of that, Katy, when you begin to look at Red Hat by itself and we see the growth there in the mid- to high teens, and we expect that, that should be able to continue and accelerate, then that, in turn, will give added growth to the whole portfolio, more than enough to offset any weakness in TPP.

凱蒂，當你開始單獨關注紅帽時，我們會看到中高青少年的增長，我們預計，這應該能夠繼續並加速，然後反過來，這將為整個投資組合帶來更多增長，足以抵消 TPP 的任何弱點。

And then as we are increasing our investment in our ecosystem as well as in internal R&D as well as in acquisitions, while I'll acknowledge that those layers do take multiple quarters to play out, I wish it was quicker, but it is multiple quarters, but I would fully expect that at the same time, as we complete the spin, we should be able to see those growth return in those parts of the portfolio.

然後隨著我們增加對我們的生態系統以及內部研發和收購的投資，雖然我承認這些層面確實需要多個季度才能發揮作用，但我希望它更快，但它是多個季度，但我完全希望與此同時，當我們完成旋轉時，我們應該能夠在投資組合的那些部分中看到這些增長回報。

And you've got a sense of how we'll do it across those various elements.

你已經了解我們將如何跨這些不同的元素來做到這一點。

Our next question comes from Amit Daryanani with Evercore.

我們的下一個問題來自 Evercore 的 Amit Daryanani。

I guess, Arvind, I would love to just hear the feedback you've gotten from your customers over the last 10 days post the announcement of the spin.

我想，Arvind，我很想听聽您在宣布旋轉後的過去 10 天內從客戶那裡得到的反饋。

And I guess really what I want to think about is do you think customers pause in signing longer-term deals until the spin is done and anticipating it would get perhaps better pricing from remain or spin growth.

我想我真正想考慮的是，您是否認為客戶會暫停簽署長期交易，直到分拆完成，並預計它可能會從保留或分拆增長中獲得更好的定價。

Any feedback over that would be helpful.

對此的任何反饋都會有所幫助。

Great question, Amit.

好問題，阿米特。

So as you can imagine, this is something in which I think the only word I can use is, we are obsessive about this topic.

所以你可以想像，這是我認為我唯一可以使用的詞是，我們對這個話題很著迷。

We had our lists up.

我們列出了名單。

We knew exactly what clients might be concerned about.

我們確切地知道客戶可能關心什麼。

And I wouldn't say that we are 100% perfect, but I think we feel very, very good that we were correct in our estimations of the level of concerns.

我不會說我們是 100% 完美的，但我認為我們對我們對關注程度的估計是正確的感覺非常非常好。

To give you a sense, we serve -- internally, this is not something that we ask or tell the client but based on their reaction, I mentioned that we have already spoken to hundreds.

為了給你一種感覺，我們服務——在內部，這不是我們要求或告訴客戶的事情，而是根據他們的反應，我提到我們已經與數百人交談過。

So you can think that now that we're 10 days in, we've already spoken to at least between 200 and 300 of the top clients, where there is a strong intersection, where there is a very heavy spinco revenue base or deals that could be on the table.

所以你可以認為，現在我們已經 10 天了，我們已經與至少 200 到 300 名頂級客戶進行了交談，這些客戶有很強的交集，有非常大的 spinco 收入基礎或交易可以在桌子上。

And from there, we have gotten back over 80%, I would call it, are in the great to good to not really concerned.

從那裡，我們已經恢復了 80% 以上，我稱之為，從好到好到不關心。

And I'll come back and give some color on why we believe that's true.

我會回來說明為什麼我們相信這是真的。

Then there are some who do enough on both sides that they do have some concerns.

還有一些人在雙方都做得足夠多，以至於他們確實有一些顧慮。

Most of those concerns are around who is the team that will be providing service.

大多數擔憂都圍繞著誰是將提供服務的團隊。

Who is the person who's going to be on the ground?

將要倒在地上的人是誰？

And we should be very clear that spinco is going to head out on day 1 with $19 billion.

我們應該非常清楚，spinco 將在第一天以 190 億美元的價格退出。

The same management team on the ground who runs it from the client up is going to be the team that does it.

從客戶開始運行它的同一管理團隊將成為執行它的團隊。

Yes, there's a corporate structure that we put in place, but that's not the team on the ground, just to be clear.

是的，我們已經建立了一個公司結構，但這不是實地團隊，只是要清楚。

They have very high satisfaction with a majority of their clients.

他們對大多數客戶都非常滿意。

And that is because they bring both service excellence in terms of the service and the uptrend that they provide, but also they bring very deep technical skills, which is kind of gives them permission and the trust to play.

這是因為他們在服務和他們提供的上升趨勢方面帶來了卓越的服務，而且他們還帶來了非常深厚的技術技能，這在某種程度上給予了他們許可和信任。

So when I put all of that together, I think that there's a couple of dozen clients where we just have to make sure that we can tell them who's the team that's going to be servicing them.

因此，當我將所有這些放在一起時，我認為有幾十個客戶，我們只需要確保我們可以告訴他們誰是將為他們提供服務的團隊。

And as they begin to get comfort on that, I can see the level of anxiety reduce.

當他們開始對此感到安慰時，我可以看到焦慮程度降低了。

But as I said, over 80%, they understood what was happening and also many clients or majority on one or the other, naturally for them, there's going to be less of a concern.

但正如我所說，超過 80% 的人了解正在發生的事情，而且許多客戶或大多數人都同意，對他們來說，自然而然地，他們的擔憂就會減少。

Now to your point of why would they then complete the deal?

現在談談他們為什麼要完成交易？

Look, most of the larger deals are to our clients' benefit.

看，大多數較大的交易都是為了我們客戶的利益。

Clients don't do something unless they are going to get a business benefit from that.

客戶不會做某事，除非他們要從中獲得商業利益。

And in this environment, if you want to go pause that for 3 or 6 months, you're going to defer your benefit for 3 to 6 months.

在這種環境下，如果你想暫停 3 或 6 個月，你將把你的福利推遲 3 到 6 個月。

So I think what drives things, and luckily, they have a month to sort of -- on both sides, both our teams and the client, to sort of understand each other, and there's still enough time in the quarter to go get those deals done.

所以我認為是什麼推動了事情，幸運的是，他們有一個月的時間 - 我們的團隊和客戶雙方都可以相互了解，並且本季度仍有足夠的時間來完成這些交易完畢。

So look, the quarter will tell us whether we are right or not.

所以看，這個季度會告訴我們我們是否正確。

But based on everything I can see, I am confident that actually we'll be able to see most of the deals progress to a satisfactory conclusion.

但基於我所看到的一切，我相信實際上我們能夠看到大部分交易取得令人滿意的結果。

Our next question comes from David Grossman with Stifel.

我們的下一個問題來自 Stifel 的 David Grossman。

So I know the end markets have shifted quickly, and I think I understand the challenges associated with repositioning GTS.

所以我知道終端市場變化很快，我想我理解與重新定位 GTS 相關的挑戰。

That said, I'm having a harder time calibrating how you're thinking about the longer-term growth prospects for this business.

也就是說，我很難判斷你是如何看待這項業務的長期增長前景的。

Can you give us any insight into your analysis of the longer-term growth of the business and what it really means to run it for cash flow?

您能否讓我們深入了解您對業務長期增長的分析，以及經營它以獲取現金流的真正意義？

Does that simply mean that it continues to decline at a modest rate and generate cash?

這是否僅僅意味著它繼續以適度的速度下降並產生現金？

Or does that mean something totally different?

或者這意味著完全不同的東西？

David, look, the market is a $500 billion market from what we can see, from what IDC shows us as well as what many other third-party consultants have told us.

大衛，你看，從我們所看到的，從 IDC 向我們展示的以及許多其他第三方顧問告訴我們的情況來看，這個市場是一個 5000 億美元的市場。

A couple of things in there.

裡面有幾樣東西。

Within that, if I find where is our portfolio and our clients today, it's probably more heavily weighted in about 60% of that total as opposed to all of it.

其中，如果我發現我們今天的投資組合和客戶在哪裡，它可能佔總數的 60% 左右，而不是全部。

And we think that the ability to form many more partnerships as stand-alone is going to allow IS to much more fully participate in the complete market.

而且我們認為，獨立形成更多合作夥伴關係的能力將使 IS 能夠更充分地參與整個市場。

Two, we have stated pretty consistently that we are going to start them off with an investment-grade balance sheet.

第二，我們一直非常一致地表示，我們將以投資級資產負債表開始。

That would allow them to also make targeted acquisitions as appropriate.

這將使他們也能夠酌情進行有針對性的收購。

We can't speak for that.

我們不能這樣說。

It will be up to the management team post spin, but that is a place, we're always in a market where it's a scale game.

這將取決於管理團隊的職位調整，但這是一個地方，我們始終處於一個規模遊戲的市場中。

That's definitely a way that you can both grow and gain market share.

這絕對是您既可以發展又可以獲得市場份額的一種方式。

And so -- two.

所以 - 兩個。

Three, Jim mentioned that 1/3 of the restructuring charge is for also improving the EBITDA profile of the spin company.

第三，吉姆提到重組費用的 1/3 也用於改善分拆公司的 EBITDA 概況。

That is going to allow them to also invest in new offerings in areas such as cloud modernization as well as added offerings in aspects of compliance and security and resilience and also in much more automation, which is going to allow them to deliver even higher service delivery excellence to their clients.

這將使他們還可以投資於雲現代化等領域的新產品，以及合規性、安全性和彈性方面的附加產品，以及更多的自動化，這將使他們能夠提供更高的服務交付卓越的客戶。

So when I look across all those, the opportunity is certainly there and freeing them up to do deals which we might not do because the margin may be dilutive to us but it's going to be accretive towards the new company; two, possibly M&A down the road but that's not for some time; and three, in terms of leveraging new offerings and partnerships with other companies who might be doing it but maybe not as wholeheartedly as they would do it with an independent company.

因此，當我審視所有這些人時，機會肯定就在那裡，讓他們有時間去做我們可能不會做的交易，因為利潤率可能會稀釋我們，但它會對新公司產生增值作用；第二，未來可能會進行併購，但這不會持續一段時間；第三，在利用新產品和與其他公司的合作夥伴關係方面，這些公司可能正在這樣做，但可能不像與獨立公司那樣全心全意地這樣做。

Our next question comes from Keith Bachman with Bank of Montreal.

我們的下一個問題來自蒙特利爾銀行的 Keith Bachman。

Congratulations on the ongoing success of Red Hat.

祝賀紅帽不斷取得成功。

I actually wanted to ask a clarification and a question to Jim.

我實際上想向吉姆提出一個澄清和問題。

Arvind, on the clarification, I wanted to come back to M&A.

Arvind，關於澄清，我想回到併購。

You seem to be talking more about M&A on this call than in previous calls.

與之前的電話會議相比，您在本次電話會議上似乎更多地談論併購。

And per a previous question, I'm just not sure the financial resources now that you have to be aggressive about M&A in that IBM's typically generate between $12 billion and $13 billion of free cash flow, and if you have $6 billion of dividend payment, it just doesn't leave a lot of room for M&A.

根據之前的一個問題，我不確定現在的財務資源，因為您必須積極進行併購，因為 IBM 通常會產生 120 億至 130 億美元的自由現金流，如果您有 60 億美元的股息支付，它只是沒有為併購留下太多空間。

So is the message that you may look to get away from an investment-grade rating?

那麼，您可能希望擺脫投資級評級的信息是什麼？

I'm just -- I'm not sure how to make the math work when you say impactful.

我只是 - 當你說有影響力時，我不確定如何讓數學發揮作用。

And then I'll just ask my question of Jim, if I could.

然後，如果可以的話，我會問吉姆我的問題。

Jim, you talked about GBS and how you're confident of growth there.

吉姆，你談到了 GBS 以及你對那裡的增長充滿信心。

I certainly think consulting business can improve, particularly next year as we get into presumably better economic cycles.

我當然認為諮詢業務可以改善，尤其是明年我們可能會進入更好的經濟周期。

Yet application management and global process have -- were weak before the pandemic hit, and in fact, had not -- had been growth challenges throughout '19.

然而，應用程序管理和全球流程在大流行病襲來之前一直很薄弱，事實上，在整個 19 年期間一直是增長挑戰。

And so I just wanted to hear a little bit about those 2 businesses.

所以我只想听聽有關這兩家公司的一些信息。

What are your expectations on an organic basis when you think about GBS for roughly half the revenues that frankly were pretty growth challenged before the pandemic?

當您考慮 GBS 大約一半的收入時，您對有機基礎的期望是什麼，坦率地說，這些收入在大流行之前受到相當大的增長挑戰？

That's it.

就是這樣。

Okay, Keith.

好的，基思。

Actually, Arvind, if you don't mind, let me take both because I think part of the first question you've already answered from a strategic capital allocation perspective on what we want to do with regards to our investment profile, both organically and inorganically.

事實上，Arvind，如果你不介意的話，讓我把兩個都拿走，因為我認為你已經從戰略資本分配的角度回答了第一個問題的一部分，即我們想在投資概況方面做些什麼，無論是有機的還是無機地。

But Keith, the heart of your question gets to a mathematical equation.

但是基思，你問題的核心是數學方程式。

And I think, one, first, you got to recognize that there's always been seasonality in our free cash flow.

我認為，首先，你必須認識到我們的自由現金流始終存在季節性。

Albeit we delivered $4.8 billion year-to-date in free cash flow overall, as you all know quite well, well over 50% of our free cash flow in this business comes in the fourth quarter.

儘管我們今年迄今交付了 48 億美元的自由現金流，但眾所周知，我們在該業務中超過 50% 的自由現金流來自第四季度。

That, coupled with we talked about 2 quarters ago, at the onset of COVID-19, how the business model composition of IBM with its geographic diversification, its industry composition, its client segmentation, be a more large enterprise focus and its annuity content of both high-value software, high-value hardware platform and high-value services piece, provides a natural hedge in this environment to stability around revenue, profit and cash.

再加上我們在兩個季度前談到，在 COVID-19 開始時，IBM 的業務模型構成及其地域多元化、行業構成、客戶細分如何成為更大的企業重點及其年金內容高價值軟件、高價值硬件平台和高價值服務，在這種環境下提供了自然的對沖，以穩定收入、利潤和現金。

Now yes, over the last couple of years, we've been driving around $12 billion of free cash flow.

現在是的，在過去的幾年裡，我們一直在推動大約 120 億美元的自由現金流。

In light of the economic challenges due to COVID-19, that number just, trajectory-wise, will be less this year.

鑑於 COVID-19 帶來的經濟挑戰，從軌跡上看，今年這個數字將會減少。

We'll see how fourth quarter plays out, but we're very confident in our portfolio, in fact, even more confident, given the decision that Arvind and the entire IBM team and our Board made on October 8 around repositioning 2 market-leading companies: one, with an IBM on an accelerated growth profile, with an already very strong EBITDA margin business that is going to generate significant cash; and then two, a lead -- the market-leading infrastructure services business that is 2x the next competitor.

我們將看到第四季度的結果如何，但我們對我們的產品組合非常有信心，事實上，考慮到 Arvind 和整個 IBM 團隊以及我們的董事會在 10 月 8 日做出的重新定位 2 市場領先的決定，我們甚至更有信心公司：第一，IBM 處於加速增長狀態，其 EBITDA 利潤率業務已經非常強勁，將產生大量現金；然後是兩個領先者——市場領先的基礎設施服務業務，是下一個競爭對手的 2 倍。

And in that business, as you all understand quite well, is a scale economics business.

正如你們都非常了解的那樣，在該業務中，是規模經濟業務。

So from that aspect, I think when you look at our finflex, our finflex only gets better.

所以從那個方面來說，我認為當你看我們的 finflex 時，我們的 finflex 只會變得更好。

And with our disciplined financial capital allocation policy that this company operates on, we feel very comfortable that we got ample free cash flow to invest in our business organically and inorganically, to delever and hit those targeted leverage ratios and also to maintain our return to shareholder program with a secure dividend and sustainable dividend growth policy overall.

憑藉我們公司所遵循的嚴格的金融資本配置政策，我們感到非常自在，因為我們有充足的自由現金流來有機地和無機地投資我們的業務，去槓桿化並達到這些目標槓桿率，並保持我們對股東的回報具有安全股息和可持續股息增長政策的整體計劃。

So that's the first question.

這是第一個問題。

Second question, when you look at GBS, as I talked about, we did see signs of demand improvement here in the third quarter.

第二個問題，當你看 GBS 時，正如我所說，我們確實在第三季度看到了需求改善的跡象。

And if you remember 90 days ago, we talked about the first half of second quarter and the second half of second quarter in the month of June, and we saw some nice growth in June.

如果你還記得 90 天前，我們在 6 月份談到了第二季度的上半年和第二季度的下半年，我們在 6 月份看到了一些不錯的增長。

Well, that continued into the third quarter.

好吧，這一直持續到第三季度。

We're double-digit signings growth overall.

總體而言，我們的簽約增長率為兩位數。

And by the way, Keith, that was pretty pervasive.

順便說一句，基思，這非常普遍。

That was good growth in consulting, but it was led by large transformational deals around application services in this environment to capitalize on our clients' journey to cloud.

這是諮詢領域的良好增長，但它是由圍繞此環境中的應用程序服務的大型轉型交易引領的，以利用我們客戶的雲之旅。

That then dragged with it our Global Process Services where clients are now digitally reinventing themselves and how they run their companies around intelligent workflows.

然後拖累了我們的全球流程服務，客戶現在正在數字化地重塑自己以及他們如何圍繞智能工作流程運營他們的公司。

So we're seeing that demand inflection move.

因此，我們看到了需求拐點的變化。

Now to your question, that revenue is more long term as you play out.

現在回答你的問題，隨著你的發揮，收入會更長期。

But when we look at our current backlog and our current backlog runout for our GBS business in 2021, we see GBS getting back to pre-COVID growth rates by midyear, and a big chunk of that is improvement across all of the 3 subsegments.

但是，當我們查看 2021 年 GBS 業務的當前積壓和當前積壓耗盡時，我們看到 GBS 將在年中恢復到 COVID 之前的增長率，其中很大一部分是所有 3 個子部門的改善。

Our last question will come from Jim Suva with Citigroup Investment Research.

我們的最後一個問題將來自花旗集團投資研究部的 Jim Suva。

A pretty clear or easy question here is you've talked and highlighted IBM's significant cash flow strength, and I believe it's the high priorities of paying down debt to get closer to investment-grade and then the spin-out of the company and get it well positioned.

一個非常明確或簡單的問題是，您已經談到並強調了 IBM 強大的現金流，我認為償還債務以接近投資級別然後分拆公司並獲得它是當務之急位置很好。

Post all that, is the focus mostly on dividend and M&A, and we should think about stock buyback as being less of a feature compared to past history of IBM where a lot of EPS growth has been driven by stock buyback?

發布所有這些後，重點是否主要集中在股息和併購上，我們應該將股票回購視為與 IBM 過去的歷史相比不那麼重要的特徵，在過去的歷史中，股票回購推動了大量每股收益增長？

But it seems like perhaps maybe the view is that the management and the Board thinks that the stock buyback isn't generating shareholder returns so maybe shifting more towards M&A?

但似乎管理層和董事會認為股票回購不會產生股東回報，因此可能更多地轉向併購？

Is that the way to kind of read the last 0.5 hour we heard through the Q&A?

這是我們通過問答聽到的最後 0.5 小時的閱讀方式嗎？

Yes, Jim.

是的，吉姆。

This is Jim.

這是吉姆。

Let me take that, and then I could wrap it up with Arvind overall.

讓我接受它，然後我可以將它與 Arvind 整體包裝起來。

As you know quite well, our disciplined capital allocation process, first and foremost, focuses on how we reinvest back in our business, both organically and inorganically.

正如您所熟知的那樣，我們嚴格的資本分配流程首先關注的是我們如何對我們的業務進行再投資，無論是有機的還是無機的。

And we are focused now with the strategic move that we announced, we laid the foundation we talked on October 8, we laid that foundation over the last couple of years, instantiated in the Red Hat acquisition, which was a bold move.

我們現在專注於我們宣布的戰略舉措，我們奠定了我們在 10 月 8 日談到的基礎，我們在過去幾年奠定了這個基礎，在 Red Hat 收購中實例化，這是一個大膽的舉措。

We have been building and accelerating that growth.

我們一直在建立並加速這種增長。

Now we want to capitalize on that $1 trillion hybrid cloud opportunity.

現在，我們想要利用這個價值 1 萬億美元的混合雲機會。

Now with that said, just given our investor mix, outside of allocating capital and investment to our own business, when we have excess cash, we're going to return that back to shareholders.

話雖如此，考慮到我們的投資者組合，除了將資本和投資分配給我們自己的業務之外，當我們有多餘的現金時，我們將把它返還給股東。

That priority right now is our secure dividend and sustainable dividend growth policy.

現在的首要任務是我們的安全股息和可持續股息增長政策。

And as we get back to our targeted leverage ratios, at that point in time, we'll reevaluate share repurchase.

當我們回到我們的目標槓桿率時，在那個時候，我們將重新評估股票回購。

But there's no need talking about that right now.

但現在沒必要談這個。

Thanks, Jim.

謝謝，吉姆。

Look, just to reiterate, we have talked about growth, and we have talked about a maniacal obsession on hybrid cloud and AI as the engines of growth for the company.

看，重申一下，我們談到了增長，我們談到了對混合雲和人工智能作為公司增長引擎的瘋狂痴迷。

So let me just make a couple of comments to wrap up the discussion.

因此，讓我發表一些評論來結束討論。

We are certain on our direction even in these uncertain times, and we are laser-focused on helping our clients with their digital transformations, leveraging our hybrid cloud technology platform, our incumbency and our expertise.

即使在這些不確定的時期，我們也對我們的方向有把握，我們專注於幫助我們的客戶進行數字化轉型，利用我們的混合雲技術平台、我們的職責和我們的專業知識。

And the actions we are taking, starting now in the fourth quarter, will enhance our focus and accelerate our future growth, and I look forward to continuing this dialogue with you.

從第四季度開始，我們正在採取的行動將加強我們的關注並加速我們未來的增長，我期待著與您繼續對話。

Sheila, can we turn it back to you to close out the call, please?

希拉，我們可以把它轉回給你以結束通話嗎？

Absolutely.

絕對地。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you for participating on today's call.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。

The conference has now ended.

會議現已結束。

You may disconnect at this time.

此時您可以斷開連接。