International Business Machines Corp (IBM) 2021 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome, and thank you for standing by.

歡迎，感謝您的支持。

(Operator Instructions) Today's conference is being recorded.

（操作員說明）正在錄製今天的會議。

If you have any objections, you may disconnect at this time.

如果您有異議，此時您可以斷開連接。

Now I will turn the meeting over to Ms. Patricia Murphy with IBM.

現在我將會議轉交給 IBM 的 Patricia Murphy 女士。

Ma'am, you may begin.

女士，您可以開始了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This is Patricia Murphy, and I'd like to welcome you to IBM's Third Quarter 2021 Earnings Presentation.

我是 Patricia Murphy，歡迎您參加 IBM 2021 年第三季度收益演示。

I'm here with Arvind Krishna, IBM's Chairman and Chief Executive Officer; and Jim Kavanaugh, IBM's Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

我和 IBM 董事長兼首席執行官 Arvind Krishna 一起來到這裡； IBM 高級副總裁兼首席財務官 Jim Kavanaugh。

(inaudible) prepared remarks on the IBM investor website within a couple of hours, and a replay will be available by this time tomorrow.

（聽不清）在幾個小時內在 IBM 投資者網站上準備了評論，明天這個時候將提供重播。

I'll remind you the separation of Kyndryl is expected to be completed at the beginning of December.

我會提醒你 Kyndryl 的分離預計將在 12 月初完成。

And as a result, our third quarter performance reflects IBM, including the managed infrastructure services business and our pre-separation segment structure.

因此，我們第三季度的業績反映了 IBM，包括託管基礎設施服務業務和我們分離前的部門結構。

Comments made in this presentation may be considered forward looking under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995.

根據 1995 年《私人證券訴訟改革法案》，本演示文稿中的評論可視為前瞻性。

These statements involve factors that could cause our actual results to differ materially.

這些陳述涉及可能導致我們的實際結果出現重大差異的因素。

Information about these factors is included in the company's SEC filings.

有關這些因素的信息包含在公司提交給美國證券交易委員會的文件中。

The presentation also includes non-GAAP measures to provide additional information to investors.

該演示文稿還包括非 GAAP 措施，以向投資者提供更多信息。

For example, we present revenue and signings growth in constant currency.

例如，我們以不變貨幣表示收入和簽約增長。

In addition, to provide a view consistent with our go-forward business, we'll focus on constant currency growth, adjusting for the divested businesses for the impacted lines of total revenue, cloud and our geographic performance.

此外，為了提供與我們未來業務一致的觀點，我們將專注於持續的貨幣增長，針對總收入、雲計算和我們的地理績效受影響的業務線調整剝離業務。

We provided reconciliation charts for these and other non-GAAP measures at the end of the presentation, 8-K submitted to the SEC.

我們在演示文稿末尾提供了這些和其他非 GAAP 措施的調節表，8-K 提交給了美國證券交易委員會。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Arvind.

有了這個，我會把電話轉給 Arvind。

Thank you, Patricia, and thanks to all of you for joining us today to discuss our third quarter performance.

謝謝帕特里夏，也感謝大家今天加入我們討論我們第三季度的業績。

At our recent investor briefing, we laid out our hybrid cloud and AI strategy and our approach to delivering strong free cash flow and sustainable mid-single-digit revenue growth starting in 2022.

在我們最近的投資者簡報會上，我們闡述了我們的混合雲和人工智能戰略，以及我們從 2022 年開始提供強勁的自由現金流和可持續的中個位數收入增長的方法。

For the last 1.5 years, we've been taking actions and investing to execute our strategy.

在過去的 1.5 年裡，我們一直在採取行動和投資來執行我們的戰略。

This quarter, we reported modest revenue growth and delivered solid free cash flow, generated over $11 billion of adjusted free cash flow over the last year.

本季度，我們報告了適度的收入增長並提供了穩定的自由現金流，去年產生了超過 110 億美元的調整後自由現金流。

We also made tangible progress in our key growth areas of software and consulting.

我們還在軟件和諮詢的關鍵增長領域取得了切實進展。

With that, I will acknowledge that in other areas of the business, we fell short of our expectation; systems during the end of the z15 cycle and Global Technology Services lines pausing ahead of the public filing of the Form 10 and separation of Kyndryl.

有了這個，我承認在業務的其他領域，我們沒有達到我們的預期；系統在 z15 週期結束時和全球技術服務線在公開提交 Form 10 和分離 Kyndryl 之前暫停。

We have made further progress in the Kyndryl separation in the last 2 weeks and announced the distribution date of November 3, which is ahead of our original schedule.

我們在過去 2 週內在 Kyndryl 分離方面取得了進一步進展，並宣布了 11 月 3 日的分發日期，這比我們原定的時間表提前了。

We've done a lot to prepare Kyndryl for this moment.

我們為這一刻準備 Kyndryl 做了很多工作。

We took structural actions to improve the profit profile.

我們採取了結構性措施來改善利潤狀況。

The management team is in place.

管理團隊到位。

Employee transfers and the vast majority of client contract innovations are complete.

員工調動和絕大多數客戶合同創新已經完成。

We are now even more certain that separating this business creates value through focus.

我們現在更加確定，分離這項業務可以通過專注創造價值。

That said, the people of GTS have been a part of IBM for a long time.

也就是說，GTS 的員工長期以來一直是 IBM 的一部分。

Hence, it is with mixed emotions that we are reporting on this segment for the last time.

因此，我們懷著複雜的心情，最後一次報導這一部分。

And just yesterday, you heard from Martin and his management team improved strategy and value proposition.

就在昨天，你從馬丁和他的管理團隊那裡聽說改進了戰略和價值主張。

The separation is just one of the many actions we are taking to focus our business on hybrid cloud and AI and improve our financial profile.

分離只是我們為將業務重點放在混合雲和人工智能上並改善我們的財務狀況而採取的眾多行動之一。

To give you some color on IBM's performance excluding Kyndryl, we delivered 2% revenue growth this quarter.

為了讓您了解 IBM 在不包括 Kyndryl 的情況下的表現，我們在本季度實現了 2% 的收入增長。

That compares to 1% in the second quarter and minus 1% in the first quarter.

相比之下，第二季度為 1%，第一季度為負 1%。

These results reflect the strong demand for technology products and services that help our clients advance their digital transformation.

這些結果反映了對幫助我們的客戶推進數字化轉型的技術產品和服務的強勁需求。

Our software revenue growth was led by Red Hat, security, automation and Cloud Paks across our software.

我們的軟件收入增長由我們軟件中的 Red Hat、安全、自動化和 Cloud Paks 引領。

Global Business Services, soon to be IBM Consulting, accelerated revenue growth to a double-digit rate.

全球商業服務部（即將成為 IBM 諮詢部）使收入增長速度達到兩位數。

Software and consulting are our 2 main drivers of growth, and this was certainly true this quarter.

軟件和諮詢是我們增長的兩個主要驅動力，本季度確實如此。

I will now expand on the progress we made in the third quarter toward our future.

我現在將詳細介紹我們在第三季度為我們的未來取得的進展。

As I have described in the past, we have a platform-centric approach, trying to meet clients wherever they are in their journey.

正如我過去所描述的那樣，我們採用以平台為中心的方法，試圖在客戶的旅程中與他們會面。

The platform we have built is open, secure and flexible and continues to gain traction in the marketplace.

我們構建的平台是開放的、安全的和靈活的，並且在市場上繼續獲得吸引力。

We now have more than 3,500 clients using our hybrid cloud platform, not only fuels our Red Hat revenue performance but also provides a solid base for the multiplier effect across software and services.

我們現在有超過 3,500 家客戶在使用我們的混合雲平台，這不僅推動了我們的 Red Hat 收入表現，還為跨軟件和服務的乘數效應奠定了堅實的基礎。

IBM Consulting is helping to drive this platform adoption and this quarter, had over 180 new Red Hat engagements.

IBM 諮詢正在幫助推動該平台的採用，本季度，與 Red Hat 的合作超過 180 項。

Our teams work alongside our clients to co-create business products and solutions.

我們的團隊與客戶合作，共同創造商業產品和解決方案。

So far, we have done more than 4,000 IBM garage engagements.

到目前為止，我們已經完成了 4,000 多次 IBM 車庫服務。

In the last quarter, more clients are leveraging our platform capabilities and our expertise to unlock business value.

在上個季度，更多的客戶正在利用我們的平台功能和我們的專業知識來釋放商業價值。

Announced DISH is using IBM software and services to help automate their cloud-native 5G network; Cloud Pak for Network Automation, which is used with AI, automation and orchestration capabilities used by DISH to fine-tune speed levels or coverage areas depending on the needs of specific clients.

宣布 DISH 正在使用 IBM 軟件和服務來幫助自動化其云原生 5G 網絡； Cloud Pak for Network Automation，它與 DISH 使用的 AI、自動化和編排功能一起使用，以根據特定客戶的需求微調速度級別或覆蓋區域。

Building on our partnership spanning half a century, we announced Crédit Mutuel is creating an IBM technology and skills hub in France.

基於我們跨越半個世紀的合作夥伴關係，我們宣布 Crédit Mutuel 將在法國創建一個 IBM 技術和技能中心。

The new hub will help Crédit Mutuel leverage AI, data, cloud and IBM Z.

新中心將幫助 Crédit Mutuel 利用人工智能、數據、雲和 IBM Z。

Also announced a new agreement with CaixaBank, one of the largest banks in Europe, to boost its digital capabilities with IBM Cloud for Financial Services and the new IBM Cloud Multizone Region in Spain.

還宣布與歐洲最大的銀行之一 CaixaBank 達成新協議，以通過 IBM Cloud for Financial Services 和西班牙新的 IBM Cloud Multizone Region 提升其數字能力。

CaixaBank will leverage IBM Consulting industry expertise to move to a hybrid cloud approach for modernization.

CaixaBank 將利用 IBM 諮詢行業專業知識轉向混合雲方法以實現現代化。

This quarter, we continued to leverage our ecosystem to drive what we described at our investor briefing as a flywheel of growth.

本季度，我們繼續利用我們的生態系統來推動我們在投資者簡報會上描述的增長飛輪。

That is the more we grow, the more our partners grow and vice versa.

也就是說，我們成長得越多，我們的合作夥伴也成長得越多，反之亦然。

We're partnering with select GSIs to bring joint solutions to market.

我們正在與選定的 GSI 合作，將聯合解決方案推向市場。

This quarter, Atos announced the setup of the Atos Cloud Center of Excellence to help financial services customers with their digital transformation journey.

本季度，Atos 宣布成立 Atos Cloud Center of Excellence，以幫助金融服務客戶完成數字化轉型之旅。

Also have continued momentum and revenue growth from our partnership with industry-leading ISVs and hyperscalers.

我們與行業領先的 ISV 和超大規模廠商的合作也帶來了持續的發展勢頭和收入增長。

[Quarter], we are partnering with Adobe to help the British pharmacy chain, Boots, transform their e-commerce platform and deliver new digital customer experiences.

[季度]，我們與 Adobe 合作，幫助英國連鎖藥店 Boots 轉變其電子商務平台並提供新的數字客戶體驗。

While we invest in partnerships, we also invest organically and inorganically to deliver innovation.

在投資合作夥伴關係的同時，我們還進行有機和無機投資以實現創新。

We made 16 acquisitions since April 2020, including BoxBoat and Bluetab in the third quarter.

自 2020 年 4 月以來，我們進行了 16 次收購，包括第三季度的 BoxBoat 和 Bluetab。

These will strengthen our hybrid cloud consulting capability.

這些將加強我們的混合雲諮詢能力。

In the same manner, we are organically developing new innovations that matter to our clients.

以同樣的方式，我們正在有機地開發對我們的客戶很重要的新創新。

I'll mention a few new introductions starting with our innovations in software.

我將從我們在軟件方面的創新開始介紹一些新的介紹。

In the quarter, Red Hat introduced a new re-architectured version of the Red Hat Ansible automation platform.

本季度，紅帽推出了重新架構的新版紅帽 Ansible 自動化平台。

Red Hat also launched a new version of its advanced cluster management of Kubernetes.

紅帽還推出了新版本的 Kubernetes 高級集群管理。

These 2 products are now more tightly integrated, which helps drive hybrid cloud automation.

這 2 個產品現在集成得更緊密，有助於推動混合云自動化。

In addition, the latest version of Red Hat OpenShift became generally available.

此外，最新版本的 Red Hat OpenShift 已普遍可用。

IBM Cloud Paks run anywhere that OpenShift runs.

IBM Cloud Paks 在 OpenShift 運行的任何地方運行。

They use common services such as logging, metering, monitoring and security and are infused with innovations and capabilities from IBM Research to deliver much more value than containerized code.

他們使用日誌記錄、計量、監控和安全等通用服務，並融入了 IBM 研究院的創新和功能，以提供比容器化代碼更多的價值。

In this quarter, we launched Cloud Pak for Security, SaaS as well as new versions of Cloud Pak for Integration, Cloud Pak for Network Automation and the Maximo application suite.

在本季度，我們推出了 Cloud Pak for Security、SaaS 以及新版本的 Cloud Pak for Integration、Cloud Pak for Network Automation 和 Maximo 應用程序套件。

Also recently announced, our Environmental Intelligence software suite.

最近還宣布了我們的環境智能軟件套件。

Product based on our Cloud Pak for Data and leveraging our weather capabilities is designed to help companies measure, monitor and predict environmental outcomes but also to help simplify ESG reporting.

基於我們的 Cloud Pak for Data 並利用我們的天氣功能的產品旨在幫助公司衡量、監控和預測環境結果，同時也有助於簡化 ESG 報告。

As you know, we made a commitment to be net 0 greenhouse gas emissions by 2030.

如您所知，我們承諾到 2030 年實現溫室氣體淨排放量為零。

We will leverage this solution to inform management as we take action to reach this goal.

在我們採取行動實現這一目標時，我們將利用該解決方案通知管理層。

Our Systems business, we recently launched Power10.

我們的系統業務，我們最近推出了 Power10。

Power10 has unique hardware innovations, including a processor specifically optimized for data-intensive workloads such as SAP S/4HANA.

Power10 具有獨特的硬件創新，包括專門針對 SAP S/4HANA 等數據密集型工作負載優化的處理器。

During the quarter, we also announced a Telum processor.

本季度，我們還發布了 Telum 處理器。

This 7-nanometer microprocessor is engineered to help clients gain insights from their data at the speed of the workload.

這款 7 納米微處理器旨在幫助客戶以工作負載的速度從他們的數據中獲得洞察力。

At the same time, we've continued to see quantum computing as a promising area of opportunity that will play out in the longer term.

與此同時，我們繼續將量子計算視為一個有前景的機會領域，從長遠來看會發揮作用。

Our teams are hard at work to move this exciting field forward.

我們的團隊正在努力推動這個激動人心的領域向前發展。

Investors will have an opportunity to learn more about this within the next month.

投資者將有機會在下個月內了解更多相關信息。

Let me quickly highlight one ESG announcement we made recently.

讓我快速強調一下我們最近發布的一項 ESG 公告。

To help protect the rights and privacy of cloud clients, we have joined other major companies in the tech industry, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, Salesforce and SAP, to establish the trusted cloud principles.

為了幫助保護雲客戶的權利和隱私，我們與科技行業的其他主要公司，亞馬遜、谷歌、微軟、Salesforce 和 SAP 一起，建立了可信雲原則。

This initiative is consistent with our long-standing focus on trust and transparency.

這一舉措與我們長期以來對信任和透明度的關注是一致的。

Before I transition to Jim, let me reiterate 3 messages we conveyed during our investor briefing.

在我過渡到吉姆之前，讓我重申我們在投資者簡報會上傳達的 3 條信息。

First, we are optimizing our portfolio to drive mid-single-digit revenue growth starting in 2022.

首先，我們正在優化我們的產品組合，以推動從 2022 年開始的中個位數收入增長。

Second, we are increasing our focus and agility to better serve clients.

其次，我們正在提高我們的重點和靈活性，以更好地為客戶服務。

Third, we are generating strong free cash flow that enables our investments while providing attractive shareholder returns.

第三，我們正在產生強大的自由現金流，使我們能夠進行投資，同時提供有吸引力的股東回報。

This quarter, we took another step towards this future.

本季度，我們朝著這個未來又邁出了一步。

While much remains to be done, we are confident we can achieve our midterm objectives.

儘管仍有許多工作要做，但我們有信心能夠實現我們的中期目標。

Jim, over to you.

吉姆，交給你了。

Thanks, Arvind.

謝謝，阿文德。

Over the last year, we have been very clear on the 2 most important measures of success, revenue growth and free cash flow generation.

在過去的一年裡，我們非常清楚兩個最重要的成功衡量標準，即收入增長和自由現金流的產生。

I'll start with these key metrics.

我將從這些關鍵指標開始。

In the third quarter, our revenue of $17.6 billion was up as reported and down modestly at constant currency.

第三季度，我們的收入為 176 億美元，如報告所述有所增長，但按固定匯率計算則略有下降。

Excluding the content that will go to Kyndryl, IBM's revenue grew 2% with an improving trend over the last 3 quarters.

不計入 Kyndryl 的內容，IBM 的收入在過去 3 個季度中增長了 2%，呈改善趨勢。

Our cash generation was up for the quarter, year-to-date and trailing 12 months.

本季度、年初至今和過去 12 個月，我們的現金產生量均有所增加。

This excludes the cash charges associated with the separation of Kyndryl and the structural actions initiated at the end of last year.

這不包括與 Kyndryl 的分離和去年年底啟動的結構性行動相關的現金費用。

Looking at our revenue from a segment perspective, Global Business Services growth accelerated to 11% and our software revenue was up 2%.

從細分市場的角度來看我們的收入，全球商業服務增長加速至 11%，我們的軟件收入增長了 2%。

[Businesses] will be our growth drivers into the future and together represent over 70% of our post-separation revenue profile.

[業務] 將成為我們未來的增長動力，合計占我們拆分後收入的 70% 以上。

Systems declined this quarter by 12%, reflecting product cycle dynamics.

系統本季度下降了 12%，反映了產品週期動態。

Across our segments, IBM's cloud revenue was up 11% over last year, and it's up 17%, excluding the cloud revenue going to Kyndryl.

在我們的細分市場中，IBM 的雲收入比去年增長了 11%，增長了 17%，不包括流向 Kyndryl 的雲收入。

This is led by Global Business Services and Cloud & Cognitive software, which are up 27% and 28%, respectively, over that period.

這是由全球商業服務和雲與認知軟件引領的，在此期間分別增長了 27% 和 28%。

Moving on to the profit dynamics.

繼續討論利潤動態。

Pretax margin is up 10 basis points sequentially but down 100 basis points year-to-year.

稅前利潤率環比上升 10 個基點，但同比下降 100 個基點。

As we saw the demand environment improving in the fourth quarter of last year, we have been increasing investments in skills, innovation and our ecosystem, organically and through acquisition.

正如我們看到去年第四季度需求環境有所改善，我們一直在通過有機和收購增加對技能、創新和生態系統的投資。

In the third quarter, we continued to aggressively hire, bringing in technical talent in Red Hat and highly skilled expertise in Consulting.

在第三季度，我們繼續積極招聘，引進了 Red Hat 的技術人才和高技能的諮詢專業知識。

We're scaling resources in our garages to provide a more experiential consulting and sales approach.

我們正在擴展車庫中的資源，以提供更具體驗感的諮詢和銷售方法。

We're adding client success managers to help clients get the most value out of their IBM solution, and we're increasing investments in R&D to deliver innovations in our hybrid cloud platform, AI and emerging technologies like Quantum.

我們正在增加客戶成功經理，以幫助客戶從他們的 IBM 解決方案中獲得最大價值，並且我們正在增加研發投資，以在我們的混合雲平台、人工智能和 Quantum 等新興技術中實現創新。

The structural actions we initiated at the end of last year are funding some of these investments.

我們在去年底發起的結構性行動正在為其中的一些投資提供資金。

Roughly 2/3 of the savings from these actions address stranded costs from the separation and create financial flexibility to be reinvested for growth.

這些行動節省的大約 2/3 解決了分離帶來的擱淺成本，並創造了財務靈活性以進行再投資以促進增長。

The other 1/3 address the Global Technology Services profit profile ahead of the separation, and we're seeing improvement in the GTS gross margin.

另外 1/3 解決了分離前的全球技術服務利潤狀況，我們看到 GTS 毛利率有所改善。

Our third quarter operating tax rate came in about 5%, which is lower than what we talked about last quarter.

我們第三季度的營業稅率約為 5%，低於我們上一季度所說的水平。

This was due to discrete tax benefits that occurred earlier than we previously expected as we prepare for the Kyndryl separation.

這是由於在我們準備 Kyndryl 分離時，離散的稅收優惠比我們之前預期的要早。

It's important to note that our view of the full year operating tax rate has not changed since January.

值得注意的是，我們對全年營業稅率的看法自 1 月以來沒有改變。

I'll comment on our free cash flow and balance sheet position.

我將評論我們的自由現金流和資產負債表狀況。

We generated $5 billion of adjusted free cash flow year-to-date and $11.1 billion over the last year.

年初至今，我們產生了 50 億美元的調整後自由現金流，比去年產生了 111 億美元。

Both exclude cash impacts of about $1.8 billion for the structural actions initiated late last year and transaction charges associated with the separation of Kyndryl.

兩者均不包括去年年底啟動的結構性行動帶來的約 18 億美元現金影響以及與 Kyndryl 分離相關的交易費用。

Our adjusted free cash flow over the last year is up about $300 million with growth in our underlying business performance mitigated by a cash tax headwind.

我們調整後的自由現金流在去年增加了約 3 億美元，我們的基本業務業績增長受到現金稅逆風的影響。

Our cash balance at the end of September was $8.4 billion, up slightly from June but down about $6 billion from year-end.

我們 9 月底的現金餘額為 84 億美元，比 6 月份略有增加，但比年底減少約 60 億美元。

Over the same period, our debt is down $7 billion.

同期，我們的債務減少了 70 億美元。

In addition to debt reduction year-to-date, we've used $3 billion for acquisitions and over $4 billion for shareholder returns through dividends.

除了年初至今的債務削減外，我們還使用了 30 億美元用於收購，超過 40 億美元用於通過股息回報股東。

Our solid cash generation and disciplined financial management provides the fuel to invest in our business and pay an attractive dividend.

我們穩健的現金生成和紀律嚴明的財務管理為投資我們的業務和支付有吸引力的股息提供了動力。

Turning to the segments.

轉向細分市場。

Cloud & Cognitive Software revenue grew 2%.

雲與認知軟件收入增長 2%。

We have a strong recurring revenue base in Software.

我們在軟件方面擁有強大的經常性收入基礎。

Renewal rates for subscription and support were up again this quarter, contributing to the increase in our software deferred income balance over the last year.

本季度訂閱和支持的續訂率再次上升，導致我們的軟件遞延收入餘額比去年增加。

By business area, Cloud & Data Platforms revenue was up 9%, while Cognitive Applications declined 1%, and Transaction Processing platforms was down 9%.

按業務領域劃分，雲和數據平台收入增長 9%，而認知應用下降 1%，交易處理平台下降 9%。

We recently shared plans to provide new software revenue categories starting in the fourth quarter.

我們最近分享了從第四季度開始提供新軟件收入類別的計劃。

We will combine our 2 Software growth vectors, Cloud & Data platforms and Cognitive Applications and within that, provide greater transparency into performance and trends by business area.

我們將結合我們的 2 個軟件增長向量、雲和數據平台以及認知應用程序，並在其中按業務領域提供更高的績效和趨勢透明度。

Looking across these growth vectors, Red Hat, security and automation fueled revenue growth this quarter.

縱觀這些增長方向，紅帽、安全和自動化推動了本季度的收入增長。

Red Hat revenue was up 17% on a historically normalized basis and 23% all-in.

按歷史標準計算，紅帽收入增長了 17%，總收入增長了 23%。

Going forward, we will focus on this all-in growth given these views will converge over the next year as the impact of the deferred revenue impairment dissipates.

展望未來，我們將專注於這種全面增長，因為隨著遞延收入減值的影響消散，這些觀點將在明年趨於一致。

Red Hat revenue growth was driven by double-digit growth in both infrastructure and application development and emerging technology.

紅帽的收入增長是由基礎設施和應用程序開發以及新興技術的兩位數增長推動的。

And we had more than 40% growth in OpenShift recurring revenue.

我們的 OpenShift 經常性收入增長了 40% 以上。

Growth in automation was led by key solutions like Cloud Pak for Integration, and Cloud Pak for Business Automation as well as a strong start to our recent Instana and Turbonomic acquisition.

自動化的增長由 Cloud Pak for Integration 和 Cloud Pak for Business Automation 等關鍵解決方案以及我們最近對 Instana 和 Turbonomic 收購的強勁開端帶動。

Our data and AI revenue was down modestly.

我們的數據和人工智能收入略有下降。

We had strength in Cloud Pak for Data, Weather and Maximo and declines in on-premise data ops portfolio and supply chain as it wrapped on a strong third quarter last year.

我們在 Cloud Pak for Data、Weather 和 Maximo 方面表現強勁，但在去年第三季度表現強勁的情況下，本地數據運營組合和供應鏈有所下降。

Security remains a key strategic focus area as we're helping clients adopt zero trust architecture with Cloud Pak for Security and export services.

安全仍然是一個關鍵的戰略重點領域，因為我們正在幫助客戶採用 Cloud Pak for Security 和出口服務的零信任架構。

Growth in security revenue continued this quarter, led by threat management software and services as clients respond to the evolving cybersecurity environment.

本季度安全收入繼續增長，威脅管理軟件和服務帶動客戶響應不斷變化的網絡安全環境。

In the spirit of transparency, I'll provide a couple of additional metrics into our performance.

本著透明的精神，我將提供一些額外的指標來衡量我們的表現。

Our annual recurring revenue, or ARR, across these software growth vectors grew 7%.

我們在這些軟件增長向量中的年度經常性收入 (ARR) 增長了 7%。

This is a good indication of the progress in our hybrid cloud and AI client adoption.

這很好地表明了我們在混合雲和 AI 客戶端採用方面取得的進展。

And we now have over $8 billion in software cloud revenue over the last year, which is up 28%.

與去年相比，我們現在的軟件雲收入超過 80 億美元，增長了 28%。

Turning to our software value vector, transaction processing platforms.

轉向我們的軟件價值載體，交易處理平台。

We provide flexibility to our clients and how they purchase this mission-critical software.

我們為客戶提供靈活性以及他們購買此關鍵任務軟件的方式。

Over the last 18 months, we've seen a preference for OpEx over CapEx.

在過去的 18 個月裡，我們發現 OpEx 比 CapEx 更受青睞。

This continues to pressure perpetual licenses in favor of more consumption-like model.

這繼續對永久許可施加壓力，轉而支持更多類似消費的模式。

But importantly, we again had strong renewal rates in our transaction processing platform software.

但重要的是，我們的交易處理平台軟件再次獲得了強勁的續訂率。

This is a solid indication that clients see long-term value in these offerings.

這有力地表明客戶看到了這些產品的長期價值。

Looking at profit for the Software segment.

查看軟件部門的利潤。

We expanded pretax margin sequentially, while we continue to invest in new innovation and our ecosystem.

我們依次擴大了稅前利潤率，同時繼續投資於新的創新和我們的生態系統。

Moving to Global Business Services.

轉向全球商業服務。

Revenue growth accelerated to 11%.

收入增長加速至 11%。

Even with the strong revenue performance, our book-to-bill ratio was greater than 1. Our GBS value proposition is aligned to our clients' priorities.

即使收入表現強勁，我們的訂單出貨比仍大於 1。我們的 GBS 價值主張與客戶的優先事項保持一致。

We're helping our clients capture new growth opportunities and increase operational flexibility and productivity with hybrid cloud and AI.

我們正在幫助我們的客戶抓住新的增長機會，並通過混合雲和人工智能提高運營靈活性和生產力。

We leverage our incumbency, IBM technology and strategic partnerships to modernize their applications and digitally transform their businesses at scale.

我們利用我們的在職人員、IBM 技術和戰略合作夥伴關係來實現他們的應用程序現代化並大規模地對他們的業務進行數字化轉型。

GBS revenue growth is led by our cloud offering.

GBS 收入增長由我們的雲產品帶動。

GBS cloud revenue now represents more than $7 billion of revenue over the last year and is up 27%.

GBS 雲收入現在代表去年的收入超過 70 億美元，增長了 27%。

This performance reflects the continued investments we are making in our Red Hat, Microsoft and AWS practices.

這一業績反映了我們對 Red Hat、Microsoft 和 AWS 實踐的持續投資。

As Arvind said, we added over 180 Red Hat client engagements this quarter.

正如 Arvind 所說，本季度我們增加了 180 多個 Red Hat 客戶參與。

This contributes to total Red Hat-related signings of close to $3.5 billion since the acquisition.

這有助於自收購以來與紅帽相關的簽約總額接近 35 億美元。

Within our 11% revenue growth, consulting was up 16%.

在我們 11% 的收入增長中，諮詢業務增長了 16%。

There's solid demand here.

這裡有強勁的需求。

We're leveraging our skills and ecosystem partners to transform our clients' business processes and modernize applications based on OpenShift.

我們正在利用我們的技能和生態系統合作夥伴來轉變我們客戶的業務流程並實現基於 OpenShift 的應用程序現代化。

Global processing services revenue was up 19%.

全球加工服務收入增長了 19%。

Our offerings in finance, procurement and talent and transformation all grew at double-digit rates.

我們在財務、採購、人才和轉型方面的產品均以兩位數的速度增長。

More and more, we're connecting consulting and BPO to transform client workflows using hybrid cloud and AI.

我們越來越多地連接諮詢和 BPO，以使用混合雲和 AI 轉變客戶工作流程。

Lastly, in Application Management, revenue growth accelerated to 5%, off a prior year that was impacted by the pandemic.

最後，在應用程序管理方面，收入增長加速至 5%，較上一年受大流行病的影響有所下降。

Growth this quarter was driven by management of applications in a multi-cloud environment.

本季度的增長是由多雲環境中的應用程序管理推動的。

I'll shift to GBS profit profile, where our strong revenue performance drove gross and pretax profit dollar growth.

我將轉向 GBS 利潤狀況，我們強勁的收入表現推動了毛利潤和稅前利潤的增長。

Our gross and pretax margins improved sequentially but were down year-to-year.

我們的毛利率和稅前利潤率環比提高，但同比下降。

With the market opportunity we see, we are making conscious decisions to invest ahead of revenue.

有了我們看到的市場機會，我們正在做出有意識的決定，在收入之前進行投資。

We are investing in strategic partnerships, new offerings and practices and integrating and scaling out our acquisition.

我們正在投資於戰略合作夥伴關係、新產品和實踐，並整合和擴大我們的收購。

As I mentioned earlier, we are investing in skills for GBS.

正如我之前提到的，我們正在投資 GBS 的技能。

In the last several months, we have increased our go-to-market resources and scaled our practices built around our ecosystem partners and Red Hat.

在過去的幾個月裡，我們增加了進入市場的資源，並擴展了圍繞我們的生態系統合作夥伴和 Red Hat 構建的實踐。

With a competitive labor market, this is putting some pressure on our labor costs, including higher acquisition and retention costs, which is not yet reflected in our current pricing.

在競爭激烈的勞動力市場中，這給我們的勞動力成本帶來了一些壓力，包括更高的收購和保留成本，這尚未反映在我們當前的定價中。

We expect to capture this value in future engagements, but it will take time to appear in our margin profile.

我們希望在未來的合作中捕捉到這一價值，但它需要時間才能出現在我們的利潤率概況中。

So now turning to the Systems segment.

所以現在轉向系統部分。

Revenue performance was down 12% driven by product cycles in IBM Z and Power, mitigated by growth in Storage.

受 IBM Z 和 Power 產品週期的影響，收入表現下降了 12%，但存儲業務的增長有所緩解。

In IBM Z, revenue declined 33% in the ninth quarter of z15 availability.

在 IBM Z 中，收入在 z15 可用性的第九季度下降了 33%。

While z15 program to date continues to exceed the strong z14 cycle, the magnitude of that overachievement has come down a couple of points this quarter.

雖然 z15 計劃迄今為止繼續超過強勁的 z14 週期，但這種超額完成的幅度在本季度已經下降了幾個百分點。

IBM Z is an enduring platform given market needs for scalability, reliability, security and more recently, cloud native development.

鑑於市場對可擴展性、可靠性、安全性以及最近雲原生開發的需求，IBM Z 是一個經久不衰的平台。

These characteristics, together with our newer flexible consumption offerings, further demonstrate the value of IBM Z platform within our hybrid cloud and AI strategy.

這些特性與我們更新的靈活消費產品一起，進一步證明了 IBM Z 平台在我們的混合雲和 AI 戰略中的價值。

Our revenue was down.

我們的收入下降了。

Late in the quarter, we began the rollout of our next-generation Power10 starting with high-end system.

本季度末，我們從高端系統開始推出下一代 Power10。

As always, new Power technology is introduced over time, and the mid-range and low-end Power10 systems will be available during 2022.

與往常一樣，隨著時間的推移，會引入新的 Power 技術，中端和低端 Power10 系統將在 2022 年上市。

Storage delivered 11% revenue growth driven by demand from hyperscalers for our tape products and growth in entry-level all-flash storage following our product refresh earlier this year.

存儲實現了 11% 的收入增長，這得益於超大規模用戶對我們磁帶產品的需求以及今年早些時候我們產品更新後入門級全閃存存儲的增長。

Looking at profit in this segment.

看這部分的利潤。

Profit margin was down, reflecting where we are in the IBM Z and Power10 product cycles.

利潤率下降，反映了我們在 IBM Z 和 Power10 產品週期中所處的位置。

So now let me turn to Global Technology Services.

現在讓我談談全球技術服務。

Revenue was down 5%, which is a 1 point deceleration from last quarter.

收入下降了 5%，比上一季度下降了 1 個百分點。

The year-to-year trajectory of revenue generated from the backlog has been improving over the last few quarters.

過去幾個季度，積壓訂單產生的收入逐年增長。

In the first half of the year, we also had modest improvements in client-based business volumes and project activity, which contributes to in-period revenue.

今年上半年，我們在基於客戶的業務量和項目活動方面也有適度改善，這有助於期間內收入。

However, this quarter, clients paused on new project activity as the separation was imminent, resulting in the revenue deceleration.

然而，本季度，由於分拆迫在眉睫，客戶暫停了新項目活動，導致收入減速。

At the time we decided to separate our managed infrastructure services business, we undertook a series of actions to improve the margin, profit and cash generation profile of the business, including a substantial charge in the fourth quarter of 2020.

在我們決定分離我們的託管基礎設施服務業務時，我們採取了一系列行動來改善該業務的利潤率、利潤和現金產生狀況，包括在 2020 年第四季度進行的大量收費。

The results of these actions can be seen in the margin improvement over the last several quarters.

這些行動的結果可以從過去幾個季度的利潤率改善中看出。

And this quarter, we again expanded gross margin, up 120 basis points.

本季度，我們再次擴大了毛利率，上升了 120 個基點。

Kyndryl will take this improved profit profile into the separation.

Kyndryl 將把這種改善的利潤狀況納入分離。

I'll wrap up with a view of our progress year-to-date and then talk about some of the fourth quarter dynamics.

我將總結我們今年迄今的進展，然後談談第四季度的一些動態。

As we enter 2021, we laid out our expectations for the year for our 2 most important measures: revenue and free cash flow.

在我們進入 2021 年之際，我們對今年的兩項最重要指標制定了預期：收入和自由現金流。

We expected to grow revenue for IBM at actual rates with underlying constant currency performance stronger in the second half than the first.

我們預計 IBM 的收入將以實際匯率增長，下半年基本不變的貨幣表現強於上半年。

We expected to grow revenue for IBM, excluding Kyndryl, at constant currency.

我們預計 IBM（不包括 Kyndryl）的收入將以固定匯率增長。

And we expected to generate $11 billion to $12 billion of adjusted free cash flow.

我們預計將產生 110 億至 120 億美元的調整後自由現金流。

That, of course, excludes the cash impacts of the Kyndryl transaction costs and the structural actions I'd mentioned earlier.

當然，這不包括 Kyndryl 交易成本的現金影響和我之前提到的結構性行動。

Now we're 3 quarters into the year, and we just completed the last full quarter of IBM on a pre-separation basis.

現在我們已經進入今年的 3 個季度，我們剛剛在分離前的基礎上完成了 IBM 的最後一個完整季度。

It's a good time to take a snapshot against those objectives.

現在是對這些目標進行快照的好時機。

Through the first 3 quarters, our revenue at actual rates is up 2%.

前三個季度，我們的實際收入增長了 2%。

Our revenue growth trajectory at constant currency has been improving throughout the year.

按固定匯率計算，我們的收入增長軌跡全年都在改善。

And excluding Kyndryl, our third quarter revenue was up 2% year-to-year, and our adjusted free cash flow over the last 12 months is $11.1 billion.

不包括 Kyndryl，我們第三季度的收入同比增長 2%，過去 12 個月調整後的自由現金流為 111 億美元。

Since the beginning of the year, we have streamlined our go to market.

自今年年初以來，我們簡化了上市流程。

We have increased investments and closed 10 acquisitions these actions and investments will help drive revenue growth, but it takes time to fully realize the benefit.

我們增加了投資並完成了 10 項收購，這些行動和投資將有助於推動收入增長，但完全實現收益需要時間。

Overall, our results over the first 3 quarters of 2021 reflect progress we've been making toward our midterm model.

總體而言，我們 2021 年前三個季度的業績反映了我們在實現中期模型方面取得的進展。

During the fourth quarter, we will complete the separation of Kyndryl, which is on track for November 3. The fourth quarter, therefore, is a major milestone as we transition to the future IBM.

在第四季度，我們將在 11 月 3 日完成 Kyndryl 的分離。因此，第四季度是我們過渡到未來 IBM 的一個重要里程碑。

Now let me provide some color on 3 areas for the fourth quarter: first, the revenue trajectory of the new segments; second, I'll comment on our tax rate; and third, the impact of the separation of Kyndryl to IBM's consolidated results for November and December on an operating basis.

現在讓我為第四季度的三個方面提供一些顏色：第一，新細分市場的收入軌跡；第二，我會評論我們的稅率；第三，Kyndryl 的分離對 IBM 11 月和 12 月綜合經營業績的影響。

I'll start with the revenue trajectory of our segments as we report them in the fourth quarter.

當我們在第四季度報告它們時，我將從我們部門的收入軌跡開始。

As always, I'll talk about it on a constant currency basis.

與往常一樣，我將在固定貨幣基礎上談論它。

But I'll remind you, the U.S. dollar continues to strengthen and would be a 1 to 2 point headwind to growth based on current spot rates.

但我要提醒你，美元繼續走強，根據當前的即期匯率，美元將對增長造成 1 到 2 個百分點的不利影響。

To provide a better view of trends, I'll focus on the growth rates before the revenue from incremental sales to Kyndryl.

為了更好地了解趨勢，我將重點關注 Kyndryl 的增量銷售收入之前的增長率。

We see continued momentum in our growth vectors in Software and Consulting.

我們看到我們在軟件和諮詢領域的增長動力持續增長。

We expect our Software revenue growth rate to improve versus the third quarter.

我們預計我們的軟件收入增長率將比第三季度有所提高。

And in IBM Consulting, we again expect double-digit revenue growth.

在 IBM 諮詢部門，我們再次預計收入將實現兩位數增長。

In infrastructure, given product cycle dynamics, we expect fairly consistent performance with the third quarter, which was a high single-digit decline.

在基礎設施方面，考慮到產品週期動態，我們預計第三季度的表現將相當穩定，即高個位數下降。

Second, tax.

第二，稅收。

I mentioned the timing of discrete tax benefits occurred earlier than we previously anticipated as we prepared for the Kyndryl separation.

我提到，在我們為 Kyndryl 分離做準備時，離散稅收優惠的發生時間比我們之前預期的要早。

We still expect our full year tax rate to be in the low teens range, in line with what we indicated back in January.

我們仍然預計我們的全年稅率將處於較低的十幾歲範圍內，與我們在 1 月份表示的一致。

That's our all-in rate including discrete tax items and applies a fourth quarter tax rate in the high teens.

這是我們的總稅率，包括離散的稅項，並在十幾歲時採用第四季度稅率。

And then finally, IBM's fourth quarter consolidated results will reflect the Kyndryl separation.

最後，IBM 第四季度的綜合業績將反映 Kyndryl 的分離。

I'll frame the revenue and earnings per share implications based on the last couple of years.

我將根據過去幾年來構建收入和每股收益影響。

Kyndryl historically represented just under $5 billion of revenue in the fourth quarter, with about $3.5 billion of that in November and December.

Kyndryl 歷史上第四季度的收入略低於 50 億美元，其中 11 月和 12 月的收入約為 35 億美元。

At the same time, we estimate we'll get about $350 million from incremental sales in those 2 months from the new commercial relationship.

同時，我們估計在新的商業關係的這兩個月內，我們將從增量銷售額中獲得約 3.5 億美元。

The net impact to IBM consolidated results is a reduction of about $3 billion of revenue for November and December due to the separation.

由於分離，IBM 合併結果的淨影響是 11 月和 12 月的收入減少約 30 億美元。

And for those 2 months, we estimate an impact of $0.20 to $0.25 of earnings per share including the new commercial relationship.

對於這 2 個月，我們估計對每股收益的影響為 0.20 美元至 0.25 美元，包括新的商業關係。

At the time of separation, Kyndryl will be presented in discontinued operation, with the balance of IBM in continuing operation.

在分離時，Kyndryl 將停止運營，其餘的 IBM 將繼續運營。

We will provide a historical restatement of continuing operations before the end of the year.

我們將在年底前提供持續經營業務的歷史重述。

We are on the threshold of the future IBM.

我們正站在未來 IBM 的門檻上。

We expect to exit the fourth quarter in a position to deliver our mid-term model, a mid-single-digit revenue growth and cumulative free cash flow of $35 billion in 2022 to 2024.

我們預計在第四季度結束時能夠實現我們的中期模型，在 2022 年至 2024 年實現中等個位數的收入增長和 350 億美元的累計自由現金流。

So with that, we'll be happy to take your questions.

因此，我們很樂意回答您的問題。

I'll turn it back to Patricia.

我會把它轉回給帕特里夏。

Thank you, Jim.

謝謝你，吉姆。

Before we begin the Q&A, I'd like to mention a few items.

在我們開始問答之前，我想提幾個問題。

First, several references were made today to IBM's new segment structure, which will be effective immediately prior to the Kyndryl separation.

首先，今天多次提到 IBM 的新部門結構，該結構將在 Kyndryl 分離之前立即生效。

We provided information on the new segment scope and naming in an article posted to our investor website at the beginning of this month.

我們在本月初發佈到我們的投資者網站的一篇文章中提供了有關新細分範圍和命名的信息。

Second, supplemental information is provided at the end of the presentation.

其次，在演示文稿末尾提供了補充信息。

(inaudible) includes the schedule of the availability of recast financial information for IBM post separation.

（聽不清）包括 IBM 離職後重鑄財務信息可用性的時間表。

(Operator Instructions) Operator, let's please open it up for questions.

（操作員說明）操作員，請打開它提問。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Wamsi Mohan with Bank of America.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自美國銀行的 Wamsi Mohan。

Arvind, there seems to be a lot of concerns around the actual separation in terms of potential disruptions.

Arvind，就潛在中斷而言，實際分離似乎存在很多擔憂。

You noted on this call that you saw some hesitation or pause in spending.

您在本次電話會議上註意到，您看到了支出方面的一些猶豫或暫停。

Do you feel -- given the changes that you have put in place also with sales comp, do you feel comfortable about the trajectory of the business once you get past this threshold of near-term disruption that you highlighted?

您是否覺得 - 考慮到您對銷售補償也進行了更改，一旦您超過了您強調的近期中斷門檻，您是否對業務軌跡感到滿意？

And if I could, Jim, you noted about $2.5 billion onetime bump from Kyndryl in 2022.

如果可以的話，吉姆，你注意到 2022 年 Kyndryl 的一次性收入約為 25 億美元。

Can you maybe calibrate that number for 2021 as well?

您能否也為 2021 年校準該數字？

That would be helpful.

那會很有幫助。

Wamsi, thanks for the question.

瓦姆西，謝謝你的提問。

Look, I'd like to be very clear.

看，我想說得很清楚。

I think that any -- and I would not use the word disruption, Wamsi.

我認為任何 - 我不會使用中斷這個詞，Wamsi。

I would use the word that there may be a slight pause, which is the words that I used in the -- my prepared remarks.

我會使用可能會有輕微停頓這個詞，這是我在準備好的發言中使用的詞。

I think there's a slight pause, and it'll be the end of third quarter, maybe the beginning of fourth quarter.

我認為會有輕微的停頓，這將是第三季度末，也許是第四季度初。

And we see that fall mostly in hardware and in Kyndryl itself.

我們看到這種下降主要發生在硬件和 Kyndryl 本身。

By the way, just to add some color, why do you see that?

順便說一句，只是為了添加一些顏色，你為什麼看到那個？

There has been a lot of hardware that actually does flow through Kyndryl.

有很多硬件實際上確實流經了 Kyndryl。

And many people, many of our clients think of that as being an alternate way that they have procured infrastructure in the past.

許多人，我們的許多客戶認為這是他們過去採購基礎設施的另一種方式。

So it's not a surprise given the size of the relationship with all of those clients that we see a pause in some of them.

因此，考慮到與所有這些客戶的關係規模，我們看到其中一些客戶出現停頓也就不足為奇了。

By the way, I think that that's the complete nature of it.

順便說一句，我認為這就是它的全部性質。

When I look at our pipeline, I look at our sales compensation, I look at our executive compensation, I am completely confident that this will be well behind us by the beginning of '22, meaning by January, well behind us.

當我查看我們的渠道時，我會查看我們的銷售薪酬，我會查看我們的高管薪酬，我完全有信心到 22 年初，即 1 月，這將遠遠落後於我們。

And as we also get into a new product cycle on some of the hardware in the first half of '22, I think that'll put it completely behind us.

隨著我們在 22 世紀上半年進入某些硬件的新產品週期，我認為這將完全拋在腦後。

And so my view is that we hold firm to our '22 and forward projections.

因此，我的觀點是，我們堅持我們的 22 世紀和未來預測。

And this has actually got no long-term or systemic issues that I see, both in the numbers, in the pipelines and in the actual behavior of clients and our people.

這實際上沒有我看到的長期或系統性問題，無論是在數量上，在管道中，還是在客戶和我們員工的實際行為中。

Thanks, Wamsi.

謝謝，瓦姆西。

To your second question, remember back at -- on October 4 at our Investor Day we talked about the strong strategic relationship between IBM and Kyndryl going forward, of which I think, at that time, we shared about $2.5 billion of annualized business predominantly structured around our high-value mission-critical recurring revenue of software and also some in our infrastructure segment around hardware purchases and around our infrastructure support.

關於你的第二個問題，請記得在 10 月 4 日的投資者日，我們談到了 IBM 和 Kyndryl 之間未來的牢固戰略關係，我認為當時我們共享了約 25 億美元的年化業務，這些業務主要是結構化的圍繞我們高價值的關鍵任務軟件經常性收入，以及我們基礎設施部門的一些圍繞硬件購買和我們的基礎設施支持。

That was a full year annualized view.

這是全年的年化視圖。

If you look at fourth quarter, we're going to have 2 months' worth of that in 2021.

如果你看一下第四季度，我們將在 2021 年有兩個月的時間。

And we estimate that, that's about $350 million to $400 million overall.

我們估計，總計約為 3.5 億至 4 億美元。

So if you go back to what I said on October 4, the 2022 compared to 2021, 12 months versus 2 months is, give or take, about a little bit over $2 billion.

因此，如果你回到我在 10 月 4 日所說的話，2022 年與 2021 年相比，12 個月與 2 個月的差距大約超過 20 億美元。

And that translates into the 3 points of incremental growth 1x above our mid-single-digit model in midterm.

這轉化為 3 個增量增長點，比我們中期的中個位數模型高出 1 倍。

Our next question comes from Toni Sacconaghi with Bernstein.

我們的下一個問題來自 Toni Sacconaghi 和 Bernstein。

Yes.

是的。

And I think, Arvind, you touched on this in the first question, but perhaps let me ask it a little more directly.

我認為，Arvind，你在第一個問題中提到了這一點，但也許讓我問得更直接一點。

So this quarter, IBM grew at 1.9% for RemainCo versus the comparison of constant currency at minus 3.5%.

因此，本季度，IBM 的 RemainCo 增長率為 1.9%，而固定匯率的增長率為負 3.5%。

The comparisons get about 2 or 3 points more difficult looking into next year, and you have to accelerate your growth rate to get to mid-single digit growth by 2 or 3 points.

明年的比較難度要高出 2 到 3 個百分點，你必須加快增長率才能實現 2 到 3 個百分點的中等個位數增長。

So effectively, adjusting for compares, the growth rate has to improve about 5 percentage points relative to what you did this quarter to hit that mid-single-digit target.

因此，根據比較進行調整後，增長率必須比本季度提高約 5 個百分點才能達到中等個位數目標。

Beyond a product cycle in mainframe and UNIX, given you talked about sort of taking time for investments to pay off, what is going to seemingly pretty suddenly change the growth profile adjusting for comps by potentially 4, 5 or 6 points over the next few quarters?

除了大型機和 UNIX 的產品週期之外，考慮到您談到需要時間讓投資獲得回報，在接下來的幾個季度中，似乎會突然改變 comp 調整的增長狀況可能為 4、5 或 6 個百分點？

And do -- how long do you continue to expect to invest, i.e., have pressure on operating margins, particularly in Software and GBS going forward?

並且 - 您預計會繼續投資多長時間，即運營利潤率面臨壓力，特別是在軟件和 GBS 方面？

Okay.

好的。

Thanks, Toni.

謝謝，托尼。

I'll take the first part of that, and then I'll look at Jim for the second part of the question.

我會回答第一部分，然後我會請 Jim 回答問題的第二部分。

So Toni, there's 3 parts of it.

Toni，它有 3 個部分。

First, let me acknowledge, yes, our growth rates have to improve, so no question about it.

首先，讓我承認，是的，我們的增長率必須提高，所以毫無疑問。

We are not saying we are done.

我們並不是說我們已經完成了。

The 3 elements that will contribute to the growth rate -- and I think a lot of what you were pointing to was towards the software growth rate.

將有助於增長率的 3 個要素——我認為您指出的很多內容都與軟件增長率有關。

I'll say it comes from 3 things.

我會說它來自三件事。

One, we are seeing improvements in our organic, meaning the software we already have.

第一，我們看到了有機體的改進，這意味著我們已經擁有的軟件。

We continue to see that.

我們繼續看到這一點。

We expect that, that will improve the software growth rates by a few points.

我們預計，這將使軟件增長率提高幾個百分點。

I won't actually say the upper band because I don't expect that the 3 elements I mentioned, all of them, will all return at their upper band.

我實際上不會說上限，因為我不希望我提到的 3 個元素，所有這些，都會返回到他們的上限。

So let's say, 1 or 2 points from the organic growth rate.

所以比方說，有機增長率的 1 或 2 個百分點。

Two, we will continue to make acquisitions.

第二，我們將繼續進行收購。

So not only do the ones we have made keep contributing because they are growing well into double-digit growth rates or the new ones we make will also contribute to that.

因此，我們所做的不僅是因為它們正在以兩位數的速度增長而繼續做出貢獻，或者我們製造的新產品也將為此做出貢獻。

Think of that to be in the same range.

認為它在同一範圍內。

The third one, as we're making a lot of changes in our sales compensation as well as in the makeup of our sales team, we talk about the garages.

第三，由於我們正在對銷售薪酬以及銷售團隊的構成進行大量更改，因此我們談論了車庫。

We talk about client success managers leading to more experiential and more technical selling.

我們談論客戶成功經理導致更多體驗和更多技術銷售。

We believe that'll drive greater deployment and hence, quicker purchases in that segment.

我們相信這將推動更大的部署，從而加快該領域的採購。

And so all of those together will contribute towards a much improved growth rate in the Software segment up to the mid-single digit as I think you're pointing out in some of your math.

因此，正如我認為你在一些數學中指出的那樣，所有這些都將有助於軟件領域的增長率大大提高，達到中等個位數。

I'm not going to debate is it 3%, 4% or 5%.

我不會爭論它是 3%、4% 還是 5%。

Happy to do that when we have a bit more time.

當我們有更多時間時，很高興這樣做。

And I'll pass it over to Jim for the second part of the question.

對於問題的第二部分，我會將其傳遞給吉姆。

To that point, I can't resist but go into the numbers.

到那時，我忍不住要進入數字。

So let's just -- Toni, great question.

那麼讓我們——托尼，好問題。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Let's talk about this quarter.

讓我們談談這個季度。

Again, IBM ex Kyndryl delivered about 2% growth.

同樣，IBM ex Kyndryl 實現了約 2% 的增長。

By the way, that's an accelerating trend as we talked about in the prepared remarks from about flat through the first half to now growing 2%.

順便說一句，正如我們在準備好的評論中談到的那樣，這是一個加速的趨勢，從上半年基本持平到現在增長 2%。

Yes, off an easier compare, we acknowledge that.

是的，通過更簡單的比較，我們承認這一點。

But let's take a look at the revenue contribution analysis of what contributed to that 2 points, and now I'll tie it back to what we said on October 4 as our mid-single-digit growth rate model.

但讓我們看一下對這 2 點的貢獻的收入貢獻分析，現在我將把它與我們在 10 月 4 日所說的中等個位數增長率模型聯繫起來。

We said across our 3 segments, first, we have an improving growth profile as we shift to higher value, higher growth markets over 70% of our business in Software and in Consulting, which, by the way, also carries a higher value recurring revenue stream, that those 2 segments will contribute all 5 points of IBM's growth, by the way, with improving operating margins, which I'll get into at the end.

我們說，在我們的 3 個細分市場中，首先，隨著我們轉向更高價值、更高增長的市場，我們 70% 的軟件和諮詢業務的增長情況有所改善，順便說一下，這也帶來了更高價值的經常性收入流，順便說一句，這兩個部門將貢獻 IBM 的所有 5 個增長點，同時提高營業利潤率，我將在最後談到這一點。

The infrastructure segment, which is high value, mission critical covering our mainframe business and infrastructure support business, was projected to be flat over time as it follows innovation cycle.

基礎設施部分具有高價值、關鍵任務，涵蓋我們的大型機業務和基礎設施支持業務，隨著時間的推移，它預計將持平，因為它遵循創新周期。

So as we bring out innovation next year, we firmly believe and confident that we're going to grow there.

因此，當我們明年推出創新時，我們堅信並相信我們會在那裡發展。

But over a 3-year period, that's about flat but a significant cash generator.

但在 3 年期間，這幾乎持平，但卻是一個重要的現金來源。

So you got 2 growth vectors, 1 value vector, 2 delivering growth, 1 delivering cash generation.

所以你有 2 個增長向量，1 個價值向量，2 個實現增長，1 個實現現金生成。

Now let's look at how the third quarter played out.

現在讓我們看看第三節的表現。

Against that 70-plus percent of our 2 growth vectors that targeted a 5-point contribution, we delivered 4.5 points of revenue growth to IBM.

我們的 2 個增長向量中有 70% 以上的目標是貢獻 5 點，而我們為 IBM 帶來了 4.5 點的收入增長。

We fell about 0.5 point short, and that's in the software area because we overachieved in GBS.

我們落後了大約 0.5 分，這是在軟件領域，因為我們在 GBS 方面取得了超常的成績。

We have a strong book of business in GBS, now IBM Consulting, and we see that continuing to play out.

我們在 GBS（現在是 IBM 諮詢）方面擁有強大的業務簿，並且我們看到它會繼續發揮作用。

We got work to do on Software, but we're making underlying business performance because, as you all know, you see the data.

我們在軟件方面有工作要做，但我們正在提高基礎業務績效，因為眾所周知，您會看到數據。

Our deferred revenue tailwind dissipates over time.

我們的遞延收入順風隨著時間的推移而消散。

And we lost about 1 point of growth in Software just due to the deferred revenue tailwind, which means that the underlying business of our pro forma IBM Software continues to improve.

由於遞延收入順風，我們在軟件方面失去了大約 1 個百分點的增長，這意味著我們預估 IBM 軟件的基礎業務繼續改善。

Why do we feel confident moving forward?

為什麼我們對前進充滿信心？

Just adding to some of the points of Arvind, number one, we've been 5 quarters in a row now with strong renewal rates.

只是添加 Arvind 的一些觀點，第一，我們現在已經連續 5 個季度保持強勁的續訂率。

80% of our Software business is recurring revenue, high-value recurring revenue.

我們軟件業務的 80% 是經常性收入，高價值的經常性收入。

And you see that in our deferred income and deferred revenue balance up $800 million year-over-year.

你會看到我們的遞延收入和遞延收入餘額同比增長 8 億美元。

Number two, we see nice acceleration in ARR.

第二，我們看到 ARR 有很好的加速。

And by the way, NRR north of 100% again for the third consecutive quarter.

順便說一下，NRR 連續第三個季度再次超過 100%。

And we're starting to see nice acceleration in Cloud Paks.

我們開始在 Cloud Paks 中看到不錯的加速。

And most importantly, as we talked about 3 quarters ago, we are now starting to enter the early parts of our ELA cycle.

最重要的是，正如我們在 3 個季度前談到的那樣，我們現在開始進入 ELA 週期的早期階段。

That will continue into 2022 and the first half of 2023.

這將持續到 2022 年和 2023 年上半年。

So we feel pretty confident about the 2 growth vectors.

所以我們對這兩個增長向量非常有信心。

Where we missed is, based on being on the back end of a very successful mainframe cycle, the infrastructure segment took 2.5 points of growth away from IBM ex Kyndryl.

我們錯過的地方是，基於處於非常成功的大型機週期的後端，基礎架構部分從 IBM ex Kyndryl 那裡獲得了 2.5 個百分點的增長。

So plus 4.5 points against the target of 5%, we lost 2.5 points in infrastructure.

因此，相對於 5% 的目標加上 4.5 分，我們在基礎設施方面損失了 2.5 分。

And that will moderate out over time as we bring new innovation.

隨著我們帶來新的創新，這將隨著時間的推移而緩和。

And then finally, just wrapping up, on your operating margin comment, we said entering this year, 2 most important measures, revenue growth, free cash flow generation.

最後，關於您的營業利潤率評論，我們說進入今年，2 個最重要的措施，收入增長，自由現金流產生。

We're achieving on both of those.

我們在這兩個方面都取得了成就。

We said that free cash flow generation was going to be important because we needed to fuel investment in innovation and in IBM Consulting because we saw robust demand.

我們說自由現金流的產生將變得很重要，因為我們需要推動對創新和 IBM 諮詢的投資，因為我們看到了強勁的需求。

We're playing that out consciously.

我們正在有意識地發揮作用。

We'll see that improve as we get into 2022, but we're still driving that cash.

到 2022 年，我們會看到這種情況有所改善，但我們仍在推動現金。

And I'll wrap up, year-to-date through third quarter, growing revenue, growing revenue ex Kyndryl at constant currency.

我將總結從年初至今到第三季度的收入增長，以固定匯率計算的 Kyndryl 收入增長。

We're growing gross and pretax dollars.

我們的總收入和稅前收入都在增長。

We're growing pretax margin, and we're growing trailing 12 months free cash flow.

我們正在增長稅前利潤，並且我們正在增長過去 12 個月的自由現金流。

So that's the model that we put in place, and we feel pretty confident as we enter 2022.

這就是我們建立的模型，我們在進入 2022 年時感到非常有信心。

Our next question comes from Katy Huberty with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Katy Huberty。

Arvind, you referenced the positives in Kyndryl and hardware in the quarter, but software performance was also light of expectations.

Arvind，您提到了本季度 Kyndryl 和硬件的積極因素，但軟件性能也低於預期。

So can you talk about what drove the shortfall in Cloud & Cognitive Software and where you see opportunities for better execution within that Software business?

那麼，您能談談是什麼導致了雲和認知軟件的不足，以及您在該軟件業務中看到了更好執行的機會嗎？

Yes.

是的。

Thanks, Katy.

謝謝，凱蒂。

Yes, certainly, as actually, even Jim acknowledged that we fell maybe 0.5 point short of our own expectations, and we could have done better.

是的，當然，事實上，甚至吉姆也承認我們可能比我們自己的預期低了 0.5 個百分點，我們本可以做得更好。

Here is where I see it doing better.

這是我認為它做得更好的地方。

First, the one that performed exactly according to what we wanted was Red Hat.

首先，完全符合我們要求的是 Red Hat。

Red Hat gave us 17%, which is pretty much what we wanted and expected.

Red Hat 給了我們 17%，這幾乎是我們想要和期望的。

If I now look at our Transaction Processing Platform, it was a little bit below what we would like because we have been saying that, in a long-term model, that should be more mid-single-digit decliner.

如果我現在看一下我們的交易處理平台，它比我們想要的要低一點，因為我們一直在說，在長期模型中，應該是中等個位數的下降。

But this quarter, it was a high single-digit decliner.

但本季度，它出現了高個位數的下降。

We think that as we get past, because that is coupled, I wouldn't call it identical, but it is coupled to some of the infrastructure cycles, I expect that to come back starting in early '22 or maybe late in '21.

我們認為，當我們過去時，因為它是耦合的，我不會稱之為相同，但它與一些基礎設施週期耦合，我預計它會在 22 年初或 21 年底開始回歸。

Then on our category that is today called AI applications, we were minus 1%.

然後在我們今天稱為 AI 應用程序的類別中，我們是負 1%。

There, I would expect us to get back to mid-single-digit growth.

在那裡，我希望我們能回到中個位數的增長。

Now you sort of say, if I put it all together, do we expect to see a tiny bit -- I call it a tiny bit of pausing from people because of everything going on?

現在你有點說，如果我把它們放在一起，我們是否期望看到一點點——我稱之為人們因為發生的一切而稍作停頓？

Yes.

是的。

Two, we are turning our incentive models.

第二，我們正在轉變我們的激勵模式。

I spoke on it on the prior question very briefly.

我非常簡短地談到了先前的問題。

Our incentive models for our sales teams are going to be very heavily tuned towards software going forward in '22.

我們對銷售團隊的激勵模型將在很大程度上針對 22 年的軟件進行調整。

That, I believe, will result in better -- much better performance because the only way that they will get anywhere near the target incentives is to make their software number.

我相信，這將帶來更好的——更好的性能，因為他們接近目標激勵的唯一方法就是讓他們的軟件數量。

That is probably for the first time that, that's been true in a long, long time at IBM.

這可能是 IBM 很長一段時間以來第一次出現這種情況。

So Katy, that's sort of my view on what happened there and how we will improve going forward.

所以凱蒂，這就是我對那裡發生的事情以及我們將如何改進的看法。

Our next question comes from Tien-Tsin Huang with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Tien-Tsin Huang。

It's good to speak to you all.

很高興與大家交談。

I wanted to ask on the GBS side.

我想問 GBS 方面的問題。

So that did accelerate double-digit revenue growth.

因此，這確實加速了兩位數的收入增長。

Sounds like fourth quarter, you expect that, too, but it did come at a higher cost.

聽起來像第四季度，你也期望如此，但它確實付出了更高的成本。

So I'm just curious on the gross margin percentage front.

所以我只是對毛利率方面感到好奇。

So I'm curious some of the confidence that you can reprice to offset the higher cost of delivery.

因此，我很好奇您是否有信心可以重新定價以抵消更高的交付成本。

Is there risk that those costs could persist here given all the demand side that you're seeing?

考慮到您所看到的所有需求方，這些成本是否存在持續存在的風險？

Yes.

是的。

Tien-Tsin, this is Jim.

天進，這是吉姆。

I'll take that as we move forward.

我會在我們前進時接受它。

As I stated earlier and Arvind commented in the prepared remarks, we do see a very robust demand environment out there.

正如我之前所說和 Arvind 在準備好的評論中評論的那樣，我們確實看到了一個非常強勁的需求環境。

We called it -- as we were going through fourth quarter, we called a very conscious strategy.

我們稱之為——在我們進入第四季度時，我們稱之為非常有意識的戰略。

GBS, now IBM Consulting, again, plays a very integral role to our hybrid cloud platform-centric business model.

GBS，現在是 IBM 諮詢，再次在我們以混合雲平台為中心的業務模型中發揮著不可或缺的作用。

Why?

為什麼？

Because it drives scale and adoption to our platform, and it also pulls IBM technology while taking advantage of the ecosystem and partnership and skill and capability.

因為它推動了我們平台的規模和採用，而且它還在利用生態系統和合作夥伴關係以及技能和能力的同時拉動了 IBM 技術。

So we started aggressively adding skill, capacity, expertise, ecosystem partnerships and scaling acquisitions.

因此，我們開始積極增加技能、能力、專業知識、生態系統合作夥伴關係和擴大收購規模。

I think we just announced today our eighth GBS acquisition in the last 12 months overall.

我想我們今天剛剛宣布了過去 12 個月內我們第八次收購 GBS。

So it was a conscious strategy.

所以這是一個有意識的策略。

And we believe that, that flywheel effect of GBS that turns into the multiplier of driving our platform, pulling our software and driving a very robust economic equation for our ecosystem partners is essential in our long-term strategy.

我們相信，GBS 的飛輪效應會變成驅動我們的平台、拉動我們的軟件並為我們的生態系統合作夥伴推動非常強大的經濟方程式的乘數，這對我們的長期戰略至關重要。

Now with that said, we saw margins down 310 basis points.

話雖如此，我們看到利潤率下降了 310 個基點。

We saw pretax margins down 110 basis points.

我們看到稅前利潤率下降了 110 個基點。

Within that, though, we grew gross profit dollars and we grew pretax dollars.

不過，在其中，我們增加了毛利潤和稅前收入。

We're about generating growth in top line and around generating cash contribution.

我們要實現收入增長和產生現金貢獻。

And GBS delivered that today.

GBS 今天做到了這一點。

I would also mention that GBS accelerated their margins quarter-to-quarter tremendously.

我還要提到的是，GBS 極大地提高了他們的季度利潤率。

Pretax margins were up 5 points quarter-to-quarter, and they've been accelerating their gross margins sequentially every single quarter this year.

稅前利潤率每季度上升 5 個百分點，而且他們今年每個季度都在連續加速毛利率。

So we delivered over 13 points of pretax margin in the third quarter; and our model, as we said on October 4, was low teens.

因此，我們在第三季度實現了超過 13 個百分點的稅前利潤率；正如我們在 10 月 4 日所說，我們的模特是十幾歲的孩子。

So we feel pretty comfortable.

所以我們覺得很舒服。

We see a very good book of business, and we continue to see, in fourth quarter, IBM Consulting delivering double-digit revenue growth and margin dollar and profit dollar and cash dollar contribution while pulling our software and hybrid cloud platform.

我們看到了非常好的業務簿，我們繼續看到，在第四季度，IBM 諮詢公司在拉動我們的軟件和混合雲平台的同時，實現了兩位數的收入增長和利潤美元、利潤美元和現金美元貢獻。

Our next question comes from Jim Suva with Citigroup.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Jim Suva。

My question -- since a lot of them have been answered, there's just one of them, and that is the impact of higher labor costs.

我的問題——因為很多問題都得到了回答，所以只有一個，那就是勞動力成本上升的影響。

No matter where you look, labor costs are going higher.

無論從哪裡看，勞動力成本都在上漲。

And I do see that in your prepared slides that you did give that your signings were up 3%.

我確實在你準備好的幻燈片中看到你的簽約人數增加了 3%。

So should we think about, as time rolls forward, you'll implement more labor costs that escalate and go higher?

那麼我們是否應該考慮，隨著時間的推移，您將實施更多的勞動力成本，這些成本會不斷上升並變得更高？

Or are they actually material enough so we should be modeling some adjustments into your cash flows?

還是它們實際上足夠重要，所以我們應該對您的現金流量進行一些調整？

Or how should we kind of think about that as you work through the business because it's a pretty dynamic and fluid situation with labor costs?

或者我們應該如何在您開展業務時考慮這一點，因為這是一個非常動態和流動的勞動力成本情況？

So Jim, great question.

吉姆，好問題。

And by the way, I would tell you that I don't think that this year is unique.

順便說一下，我不認為今年是獨一無二的。

Maybe there's a touch more issues going on, but I don't think it's unique.

也許還有更多問題正在發生，但我認為這不是獨一無二的。

I remember 2001 really well.

我對 2001 年記憶猶新。

I remember 2007 just before the financial crisis.

我記得 2007 年金融危機前夕。

This is a continuous movie in the technology industry.

這是一部科技行業的連續電影。

Now you said the 3% signings growth.

現在你說的是 3% 的簽約增長。

I wouldn't look at the 3%.

我不會看那3%。

I would look at our book-to-bill ratio, which is 1.1.

我會看看我們的訂單出貨比，它是 1.1。

And so book to bill gives a much better signal of what the demand is for our forward-looking revenue and demand in our IBM Consulting business.

因此，從訂單到賬單可以更好地表明我們對 IBM 諮詢業務的前瞻性收入和需求的需求。

Now look, labor has to be managed.

現在看，必須管理勞動力。

We have a global labor model.

我們有一個全球勞動力模型。

We put people everywhere.

我們到處派人。

And as Jim just mentioned in answers to the prior question that, yes, when you do have inflation in your labor cost, there is an element of it that's going to price through for that side of the business.

正如吉姆剛剛在回答前面的問題時提到的那樣，是的，當你的勞動力成本確實出現通貨膨脹時，其中的一個因素會為業務的那一方面定價。

In all the rest of the business, actually, I'm not so worried about labor cost.

實際上，在所有其他業務中，我並不那麼擔心勞動力成本。

I'm worried about getting the right talent maybe, but that is always a worry that I have, and I've been paranoid about that for 30 years.

也許我擔心獲得合適的人才，但這一直是我的擔憂，而且 30 年來我一直對此感到偏執。

That's not unique.

這不是唯一的。

And I think it's similar to many of your businesses, Jim, like not just yours but all of your colleagues here on this call.

我認為這與您的許多業務相似，Jim，不僅是您的業務，還有您在本次電話會議上的所有同事。

The right talent is far more important, and our labor cost is important.

合適的人才更為重要，我們的勞動力成本也很重要。

In the end of the day, it's maybe 15%, 20% of the total cost and expense that is sort of critical towards the other businesses because you can manage the rest.

歸根結底，總成本和費用的 15%、20% 對其他業務來說可能很關鍵，因為您可以管理其餘部分。

So net answer to you is, no, it's not something that needs to be modeled in.

所以對你的最終回答是，不，這不是需要建模的東西。

I don't believe so.

我不這麼認為。

But we always have to worry about it in terms of how do we price, how do we get the labor pools, where do we put the labor pools and all of those elements.

但我們總是要擔心如何定價、如何獲得勞動力、將勞動力放在哪里以及所有這些因素。

Our next question comes from Keith Bachman, Bank of Montreal.

我們的下一個問題來自蒙特利爾銀行的 Keith Bachman。

I wanted to ask first on Cloud Paks that you seem to be suggesting that this is going to be a key or one of the many enablers to drive growth.

我想首先在 Cloud Paks 上問您，您似乎在暗示這將成為推動增長的關鍵或眾多推動因素之一。

And I was hoping you could explain a little bit why Cloud Paks because it sounds very similar to bundling, which IBM and many companies have been doing for years.

我希望您能稍微解釋一下為什麼使用 Cloud Paks，因為它聽起來非常類似於捆綁，而 IBM 和許多公司多年來一直在這樣做。

So want to try to understand a little bit why Cloud Pak is different from the historic bundling that IBM has been doing.

所以想嘗試了解一下為什麼 Cloud Pak 不同於 IBM 一直在做的歷史性捆綁。

And then second, if I could just ask, Jim, a question I've asked before is on software maintenance.

其次，吉姆，如果我能問的話，我之前問過的一個問題是關於軟件維護的。

A good quarter on easy compares and I just wanted to get your thoughts on the durability of the software maintenance, not whether it's important.

一個關於簡單比較的好季度，我只是想了解您對軟件維護持久性的看法，而不是它是否重要。

But is it, in fact, a growth category as we look out within GBS over the next 2 years, 3 years?

但事實上，我們在未來 2 年、3 年內在 GBS 中看到的是增長類別嗎？

So Keith, I'll take the first part of that question on Cloud Paks.

基思，我將在 Cloud Paks 上回答這個問題的第一部分。

So Cloud Paks are not just bundled.

所以 Cloud Paks 不僅僅是捆綁的。

They're not just containerizing software.

他們不僅僅是容器化軟件。

I'll tell you right away, if all you do is bundled software, you'll actually get a price deflation.

我馬上告訴你，如果你所做的只是捆綁軟件，你實際上會得到價格通縮。

If all you do is containerized software, there will be no plus or minus.

如果你做的只是容器化軟件，就沒有正負之分了。

It's just a different way of delivering it.

這只是一種不同的交付方式。

So I'll take one of the Cloud Paks and maybe use it as a quick example.

因此，我將採用其中一個 Cloud Pak，並可能將其用作快速示例。

If I take our Cloud Pak for Data, if I now turn around and tell you that whether we take some of our integration software or whether we take a database software like Db2, and that's all you provide through that, you're right, that's neither plus nor minus.

如果我使用我們的 Cloud Pak for Data，如果我現在轉身告訴你我們是否使用我們的一些集成軟件或者我們是否使用像 Db2 這樣的數據庫軟件，這就是你通過它提供的全部，你是對的，那是既不加也不減。

I think it will stay where it is.

我認為它會留在原地。

However, it's not just putting those in as options.

但是，它不僅僅是將它們作為選項。

A lot of the Cloud Pak for Data is actually new innovation.

許多 Cloud Pak for Data 實際上是新的創新。

It includes methods around data fabric.

它包括圍繞數據結構的方法。

It includes methods around how do you federate data both from public clouds and from other repositories that are probably not IBM's inside the client's on-premise environment.

它包括有關如何联合來自公共雲和其他可能不是 IBM 的客戶內部部署環境中的存儲庫的數據的方法。

It contains the data catalog.

它包含數據目錄。

It contains these ways to be able to do some competition without even moving the data.

它包含這些方法，甚至可以在不移動數據的情況下進行一些競爭。

That new content added to some of the existing content, so we take advantage of our incumbency, but we get lift because there is more usage overall for these technologies than there was before, is why we are so excited about Cloud Paks and where it gives us both.

新內容添加到一些現有內容中，因此我們利用了現有的優勢，但我們得到了提升，因為這些技術的總體使用量比以前多，這就是我們對 Cloud Paks 如此興奮的原因，以及它提供的地方我們倆

Yes, some of it is just going to be a movement, but a lot of it is actually increased usage.

是的，其中一些只是一種運動，但很多實際上是增加了使用量。

And hopefully, that sort of made the example clear on how we are driving innovation into the portfolio with that one example.

希望這能讓我們清楚地了解我們如何通過這個例子將創新推向產品組合。

So Jim, I'll give it to you to address the -- I don't know whether to raise maintenance in ARR or NRR.

所以吉姆，我會把它交給你來解決——我不知道是提高 ARR 還是 NRR 的維護。

I think, Keith -- and I'm interpreting your question given you applied it to GBS and we've had this discussion many quarters appropriately so and you're talking about application management services, AMS.

我想，基思——我正在解釋你的問題，因為你將它應用於 GBS，我們已經適當地進行了很多次討論，所以你在談論應用程序管理服務，AMS。

If I'm not answering the right question, please get back to Patricia, and we can move forward from there.

如果我沒有回答正確的問題，請回到帕特里夏，我們可以從那裡繼續前進。

But AMS, as we've talked about for a handful of quarters, we got back to growth, up 5%, accelerated that growth, albeit, as we said in the prepared remarks, off a much easier compare during the height of the pandemic last year in third quarter.

但是，正如我們在幾個季度中談到的那樣，AMS 恢復了增長，增長了 5%，加速了這種增長，儘管正如我們在準備好的發言中所說的那樣，與大流行高峰期相比要容易得多去年第三季度。

But it was up this quarter as we had growth in offerings, which modernize the client's applications and as we move them to a hybrid cloud.

但本季度有所上升，因為我們的產品有所增長，使客戶的應用程序現代化，並且我們將它們轉移到混合雲中。

We talked about our application management having a tremendous incumbency value in a hybrid cloud platform-centric model.

我們談到了我們的應用程序管理在以混合雲平台為中心的模型中具有巨大的在職價值。

Why?

為什麼？

Because what we've seen and learned over the last 2-plus years after the acquisition of Red Hat is that, one, we've built up a $3.5 billion book of business around our Red Hat practice in GBS from a dead start during the acquisition.

因為在收購 Red Hat 後的過去 2 年多的時間裡，我們所看到和學到的是，我們已經圍繞我們在 GBS 中的 Red Hat 實踐建立了價值 35 億美元的業務簿，從一個死角開始獲得。

And we built that up.

我們建立了它。

Of that $3.5 billion, over 3/4 of that book of business is in AMS accounts.

在這 35 億美元中，超過 3/4 的業務在 AMS 賬戶中。

Second, AMS -- excuse me, GBS driving that flywheel effect I talked about earlier is actually -- delivers over 1/3 of our cloud revenue -- Cloud Pak revenue growth each quarter, and within that, 80% are AMS accounts.

其次，AMS——對不起，GBS 推動我之前談到的飛輪效應實際上是——提供超過 1/3 的雲收入——每個季度 Cloud Pak 收入增長，其中 80% 是 AMS 賬戶。

So there is a causality and a correlation here between our strong incumbency base, us having industry business process knowledge and the technical expertise to be the client's trusted partner.

因此，我們強大的在職基礎、我們擁有行業業務流程知識和技術專長，成為客戶值得信賴的合作夥伴之間存在因果關係和相關性。

To move them along their journey to cloud, AMS is a very integral part.

為了讓他們踏上雲之旅，AMS 是不可或缺的一部分。

So we saw good growth.

所以我們看到了良好的增長。

And by the way, our penetration of AMS cloud activity, remember, we talked about in the past this predominantly being an on-prem enterprise application concentration issue.

順便說一下，我們對 AMS 雲活動的滲透，請記住，我們在過去談到這主要是一個本地企業應用程序集中問題。

We continue to make progress.

我們繼續取得進展。

We're -- about close to 40% of our AMS business is now cloud, and we're capitalizing on Red Hat.

我們 - 現在大約有近 40% 的 AMS 業務是雲，我們正在利用 Red Hat。

We're catalyzing on application modernization.

我們正在促進應用程序現代化。

And we're capitalizing on very strong ecosystem partnerships with SAP S/4HANA to name one, as we move forward.

在我們前進的過程中，我們正在利用與 SAP S/4HANA 的非常強大的生態系統合作夥伴關係來命名一個。

Certainly, our final question comes from David Grossman with Stifel.

當然，我們的最後一個問題來自 Stifel 的 David Grossman。

Just 2 really quick ones.

只有 2 個非常快的。

First, how much, if any, of the revenue with Kyndryl is activity-based, which may be dependent on their own execution?

首先，Kyndryl 的收入中有多少是基於活動的（如果有的話），這可能取決於他們自己的執行情況？

And then secondly, Jim, you mentioned the ELA cycle starting up, I think, early 2022.

其次，吉姆，你提到了 ELA 週期開始，我認為，2022 年初。

Perhaps you could share with us just how much of a headwind it's been and which segments it's impacted most.

也許您可以與我們分享它的逆風有多大，以及它對哪些細分市場的影響最大。

David, thank you very much for the question.

大衛，非常感謝你提出這個問題。

I think I'll take both, and then Arvind can wrap it up here overall.

我想我會把兩者都拿走，然後 Arvind 可以把它總結在這裡。

First, around Kyndryl.

首先，圍繞 Kyndryl。

So if you go back to October 4 at the Investor Day, which we were pretty transparent, and we said we're going to continue that transparency into 2022 around the external sales with the strong strategic relationship between IBM and Kyndryl, we said about, on a full year basis, $2.5 billion, give or take.

因此，如果你回到 10 月 4 日的投資者日，我們非常透明，我們說我們將通過 IBM 和 Kyndryl 之間強大的戰略關係將這種透明度延續到 2022 年，我們說，按全年計算，25 億美元，或多或少。

And in 2022, when you got 12 months versus 2 months in 2021, it'd be about $2 billion of incremental or about 3 points.

到 2022 年，當你有 12 個月而不是 2021 年的 2 個月時，這將是大約 20 億美元的增量或大約 3 個百分點。

Within that, David, the majority of that is in software.

其中，大衛，其中大部分是在軟件中。

And a majority of that is annuitized-based high-value, mission-critical-based recurring revenue.

其中大部分是基於年金的高價值、基於關鍵任務的經常性收入。

So if you're thinking about do we have any deflationary impacts around that $2-plus billion on the software side, which carries the majority of it, no.

因此，如果你在考慮我們是否對軟件方面的 2 多億美元產生任何通貨緊縮影響，其中大部分，沒有。

The second component is we have about -- annualized about $0.5 billion with regards to our infrastructure support and hardware.

第二個組成部分是我們在基礎設施支持和硬件方面的年化約 5 億美元。

On the infrastructure support, it's again an annuitized-based business overall.

在基礎設施支持方面，它又是一個基於年金的整體業務。

And with regards to hardware, in our strategic relationship, as we set Kyndryl up, we've given them a pretty aggressive and component of a aged inventory refresh program, so we have very little hardware purchases over probably the next 18 months to 2 years given we just went through a big asset refresh.

在硬件方面，在我們的戰略關係中，當我們建立 Kyndryl 時，我們已經為他們提供了一個非常積極的舊庫存更新計劃的組成部分，因此在接下來的 18 個月到 2 年內，我們的硬件採購量可能很少鑑於我們剛剛經歷了一次大的資產更新。

So long answer to your question, but I don't think we have a lot of impact moving forward against that.

對你的問題的回答很長，但我認為我們在推動這個問題上沒有太大的影響。

Second, around the ELA cycle, you know this quite well.

其次，圍繞 ELA 週期，您非常了解這一點。

It's typically a 3-plus year.

通常是 3 年多。

The dynamics of client buying behaviors change over time, but we feel very confident.

客戶購買行為的動態會隨著時間而變化，但我們感到非常有信心。

The good news is here is we have a lot of headroom.

好消息是我們有很大的餘量。

We're just starting the early part of that in fourth quarter.

我們只是在第四季度的早期開始。

That will predominantly play out in 2022 and then will also extend early into 2023 as we move forward.

這將主要在 2022 年發揮作用，然後隨著我們的前進，也會提前延伸到 2023 年。

And if you look at our transactional-related activity, we've been making strong performance improvement in our annuitized-based business with the renewal rates, and our on-prem transactional business has struggled, especially during the pandemic.

而且，如果您查看我們與交易相關的活動，就會發現我們一直在通過續訂率在基於年金的業務中取得強勁的績效改進，而我們的預置交易業務一直在苦苦掙扎，尤其是在大流行期間。

This will bolster that as we move forward.

隨著我們的前進，這將加強這一點。

And most importantly, we feel confident in the investments in innovation and what we're bringing to market with our modernized and containerized Cloud Pak offerings optimized on top of our hybrid cloud Red Hat platform that we're good.

最重要的是，我們對創新投資以及我們通過在我們擅長的混合雲 Red Hat 平台之上優化的現代化和容器化 Cloud Pak 產品推向市場的產品充滿信心。

So with that, let me turn it over to Arvind.

因此，讓我把它交給 Arvind。

Thanks, Jim.

謝謝，吉姆。

Look, first, I'd like to thank all of you for your questions.

首先，我要感謝大家提出的問題。

I thought they were really getting into the details; and hopefully, it helped -- our answers helped you understand our business a lot better.

我以為他們真的在深入細節；希望它有所幫助——我們的回答可以幫助您更好地了解我們的業務。

Let me just make a couple of comments to wrap it up.

讓我發表一些評論來總結一下。

I hope you took away is that we continue to make this progress this quarter in the key areas.

我希望你帶走的是我們本季度在關鍵領域繼續取得進展。

Both myself and Jim highlighted them in our key areas of growth and in our value vectors as we go forward, especially looking into '23.

在我們前進的過程中，我和吉姆都在我們的關鍵增長領域和我們的價值載體中強調了它們，尤其是展望 23 年。

But we'll also acknowledge that we always have more to do.

但我們也會承認，我們總是有更多的事情要做。

Importantly, we are on the threshold of the IBM of the future, and we expect to exit the year in a position that delivers on our mid-term model starting in 2022.

重要的是，我們正處於未來 IBM 的門檻上，我們希望在今年結束時能夠從 2022 年開始交付我們的中期模型。

That is the sustainable mid-single-digit revenue growth and the increasing free cash flow that fuels all the investments.

那就是可持續的中個位數收入增長和不斷增加的自由現金流，這為所有投資提供了動力。

So with that, I look forward to speaking to all of you again.

因此，我期待再次與大家交談。

Arvind, thanks.

阿溫德，謝謝。

Victor, let me turn it back to you to close out the call.

維克多，讓我把它轉回給你結束通話。

Thank you for participating on today's call.

感謝您參加今天的電話會議。

The conference has now ended.

會議現已結束。

You may disconnect at this time.

此時您可以斷開連接。