滙豐控股 (HSBC) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Welcome, ladies and gentlemen to the Analyst and Investor Webinar on the 2024 Interim Results for HSBC Holdings plc.

女士們、先生們，歡迎參加關於匯豐控股有限公司 2024 年中期業績的分析師和投資者網路研討會。

For your information, this webinar is being recorded.

為了供您參考，我們正在錄製本次網路研討會。

We are now ready to start the webinar.

我們現在準備開始網路研討會。

So I will hand over to Noel Quinn, Group Chief Executive.

因此，我將把工作交給集團執行長諾埃爾‧奎恩 (Noel Quinn)。

Good morning to everyone in London, and good afternoon to those joining from Hong Kong.

倫敦的各位早安，香港的各位下午好。

Today is my last results announcement before Georges takes over in September.

今天是喬治九月接任之前我最後一次公佈業績。

I'm delighted to be handing the stewardship of the bank over to him.

我很高興將銀行的管理權移交給他。

Georges is an exceptional leader, who understand what makes HSBC special.

喬治是一位傑出的領導者，他了解匯豐銀行的特殊之處。

I'd like to thank my colleagues around the world for everything they've done over the last five years.

我要感謝世界各地的同事在過去五年所做的一切。

And I wish Georges every success for the future.

我祝福喬治未來一切順利。

I have always been immensely proud of the heritage of this bank and the strategic role it plays in the world.

我一直對這家銀行的傳統及其在世界上所扮演的策略角色感到非常自豪。

But when I took this job on five years ago, we didn't have the financial performance to match our standing.

但當我五年前​​接手這份工作時，我們的財務表現還沒有與我們的地位相符。

My aim was to change that.

我的目標是改變這一點。

I believe we've done so and created a strong platform for future growth.

我相信我們已經做到了這一點，並為未來的發展創造了一個強大的平台。

This was evidenced by the record profit performance last year, and by the strong first half performance this year.

去年創紀錄的利潤表現和今年上半年的強勁表現證明了這一點。

Revenue of $37.3 billion was up 1%.

營收達 373 億美元，成長 1%。

Profit before tax of $21.6 billion was stable on the same period last year.

稅前利潤為216億美元，與去年同期持平。

This performance enabled continued strong capital generation.

這一業績使得持續強勁的資本生成成為可能。

Our return on tangible equity was 17%, excluding notable items.

不包括顯著項目，我們的有形股本回報率為 17%。

We've announced $4.8 billion of further capital distributions today.

今天我們宣布進一步進行 48 億美元的資本分配。

This takes the total capital we have distributed by way of dividends and buybacks in respect of the last 18 months to $34.4 billion.

這使得我們過去 18 個月透過股利和回購方式分配的總資本達到 344 億美元。

Finally, we've updated our guidance to reflect our increased confidence about the future.

最後，我們更新了指導意見，以反映我們對未來增強的信心。

We're providing new guidance of a mid-teens return on tangible equity in 2025.

我們提供了 2025 年有形資產報酬率達到 15 左右的新指引。

In addition to the 2024 guidance we already had.

除了我們已有的 2024 年指導之外。

We're upgrading our 2024 banking NII guidance from at least $41 billion to around $43 billion.

我們將 2024 年銀行業 NII 指引從至少 410 億美元上調至約 430 億美元。

We're revising our 2024 ECL guidance to be back within our normal medium-term planning range of 30 to 40 basis points.

我們正在修訂 2024 年 ECL 指引，以使其回到 30 至 40 個基點的正常中期計劃範圍內。

And we're reconfirming our 2024 cost guidance of around 5% growth on a target basis.

我們再次確認 2024 年成本指導目標為成長 5% 左右。

That's despite growth of 7% in the first half, which as Georges will explain, is mainly due to timing differences compared to last year.

儘管上半年增長了 7%，正如喬治將解釋的那樣，這主要是由於與去年相比的時間差異。

The benefits of our strategy execution over the last five years are evidence in our performance.

過去五年我們的策略執行所帶來的好處在我們的業績中得到了證明。

Before getting into detail on the further progress made over the last six months, please allow me to share some reflections on our five year journey.

在詳細介紹過去六個月的進一步進展之前，請容許我分享一些對我們五年歷程的反思。

When we set out there, were two key strategies to delivering higher returns.

當我們開始時，有兩個關鍵策略可以實現更高的回報。

The first thing we had to do was to reshape our portfolio.

我們要做的第一件事就是重塑我們的投資組合。

Building on the work of my predecessors who initiated important structural changes, we've continued to exit businesses and client portfolios that were nonstrategic, subscale and unprofitable.

在我的前任發起重要結構性變革的工作基礎上，我們繼續退出非策略性、規模小和無利可圖的業務和客戶組合。

First, via organic portfolio reductions, which delivered RWA savings of around $128 billion.

首先，透過有機投資組合削減，RWA 節省了約 1,280 億美元。

And then via inorganic means through disposals.

然後透過無機手段進行處置。

The second and very important strategy which we commenced at the same time was to build alternative sources of revenue growth.

我們同時開始的第二個也是非常重要的策略是建立收入成長的替代來源。

Within this, we've invested to grow fee income, particularly in areas where we have significant strengths such as wholesale transaction banking and wealth.

其中，我們進行投資以增加費用收入，特別是在我們擁有顯著優勢的領域，例如批發交易銀行和財富。

We've also continued to invest in our differentiated international propositions.

我們也繼續投資於我們差異化的國際主張。

And we've significantly lowered our sensitivity to interest rates.

我們已經顯著降低了對利率的敏感度。

From approximately $7 billion of bank in NII for a 100 basis points down shock in interest rates at 30 June 2022 to around $3.4 billion at the end of 2023, and now down to around $2.7 billion today.

2022 年 6 月 30 日，利率下降 100 個基點的衝擊下，銀行 NII 的規模約為 70 億美元，到 2023 年底約為 34 億美元，現在又降至今天的約 27 億美元。

All of this had to be underpinned by a culture of cost discipline, which we have instilled across the group.

所有這一切都必須以我們在整個集團灌輸的成本紀律文化為基礎。

These savings enabled us to invest in the areas I've spoken about.

這些節省下來的資金使我們能夠投資於我所談論的領域。

And this transformation has helped to improve our financial performance.

這種轉變有助於改善我們的財務表現。

As you know, we delivered a record profit in 2023, and a mid-teens return on tangible equity in 2023 and in the first half of 2024.

如您所知，我們在 2023 年實現了創紀錄的利潤，並在 2023 年和 2024 年上半年實現了有形資產回報率。

It has been over 15 years since the group was generating returns at current levels.

該集團已經超過 15 年沒有達到目前的回報水準。

And we now expect to sustain it this year and in 2025.

我們現在預計今年和 2025 年將保持這一勢頭。

The other tangible measure of success is capital distributions to our shareholders.

衡量成功的另一個具體標準是向股東分配資本。

I'm really pleased that we delivered around $54 billion by way of dividends and buybacks to our shareholders over the last five years, including the distributions announced today.

我真的很高興我們在過去五年中透過股息和回購的方式向股東交付了約 540 億美元，包括今天宣布的分配。

And I'm especially pleased to have paid a special dividend of $0.21 per share earlier this year following the sale of HSBC Canada.

我特別高興的是，在今年稍早出售加拿大匯豐銀行後，我支付了每股 0.21 美元的特別股息。

I see this payment, not just as a financial return, but as a return for the loyalty that our shareholders have shown us over the recent years.

我認為這筆款項不僅是財務回報，也是股東近年來向我們展現的忠誠度的回報。

Let me now summarize the further progress evidence in the first half.

現在讓我總結一下上半年的進一步進展。

First, wealth has been a key component of revenue diversification strategy.

首先，財富一直是收入多元化策略的關鍵組成部分。

It delivered two very good quarters, growing revenue by 12% in total.

它的兩個季度表現非常出色，收入總計成長了 12%。

In transaction banking, fee and other income in Global Payments Solutions grew by 4% and in Global Trade Solutions by 1% in a very difficult environment for trade.

在交易銀行業務方面，在非常困難的貿易環境下，Global Payments Solutions 的費用和其他收入增加了 4%，Global Trade Solutions 的費用和其他收入增加了 1%。

Revenue for HSBC Innovation Banking was up 4% quarter-on-quarter as our new global proposition continues to gain traction.

隨著我們新的全球業務繼續受到關注，匯豐創新銀行業務的收入環比增長 4%。

Second, our scale markets in Hong Kong and the UK enabled us to grow profits each year as we captured new opportunities in both the corporate and retail businesses.

其次，香港和英國的規模市場使我們能夠在企業和零售業務中抓住新機遇，每年實現利潤成長。

As you can see, we also have positive growth in other markets, including India, which was up 4% in the first half, and Singapore, which was up 2%.

正如您所看到的，我們在其他市場也取得了積極的成長，包括印度，上半年成長了 4%，新加坡成長了 2%。

Third we continue to grow multi-jurisdictional client revenue in both wholesale and retail.

第三，我們持續增加批發和零售的跨司法管轄區客戶收入。

Fourth, we saw good growth in both customer lending and deposits in the second quarter, despite what is still a relatively sluggish environment.

第四，儘管環境仍然相對低迷，但第二季客戶貸款和存款均實現良好成長。

Finally, we've continued to grow the size and duration of the structural hedge to reduce our sensitivity to interest rate movements.

最後，我們繼續擴大結構性對沖的規模和持續時間，以降低我們對利率變動的敏感度。

Georges has new disclosures on the expected benefits in his section.

喬治在他的部分中對預期收益進行了新的披露。

All of this progress underlines why we expect to deliver a mid-teens return on tangible equity this year and in 2025 as well.

所有這些進展都凸顯了為什麼我們預計今年和 2025 年的有形股本回報率將達到 15% 左右。

Let me get into some more detail.

讓我更詳細地介紹一下。

The steps we've taken to change our retail business model and our continued investment in people and digitization have made wealth the key driver of revenue growth.

我們為改變零售業務模式而採取的措施以及對人員和數位化的持續投資使財富成為收入成長的關鍵驅動力。

Wealth revenue was up 12% in the first half to $4.3 billion.

上半年財富收入成長 12%，達到 43 億美元。

And that growth is broad-based.

這種增長是廣泛的。

As you can see in the boxes on the right side of the slide, wealth fee and other income was up 14%.

正如您在幻燈片右側的方框中看到的那樣，財富費和其他收入增加了 14%。

Private Banking revenue was up 16%.

私人銀行業務收入成長 16%。

We attracted $32 billion of net new invested assets.

我們吸引了 320 億美元的淨新投資資產。

Our New Business Insurance CSM was up 77%.

我們的新商業保險 CSM 上漲了 77%。

Moving to the next topic.

轉到下一個主題。

Transaction Banking revenue was stable in the first half.

上半年交易銀行業務收入穩定。

There was good growth in payments, which was up 3%.

支付成長良好，成長了 3%。

This included growth in fee and other income of 4%.

其中包括 4% 的費用和其他收入成長。

This is a result of the investment we've made to grow and digitize our business, which helped to improve our ranking from a top four bank in 2022 to number two today.

這是我們為發展和數位化業務而進行投資的結果，這有助於將我們的排名從 2022 年的四大銀行提升到今天的第二名。

Foreign exchange was down 8% compared to a strong performance last year when there was very high volatility.

與去年波動性非常大的強勁表現相比，外匯匯率下跌了 8%。

And while trade was slightly down in the half, the pace of decline slowed to the point that it was broadly flat in the second quarter.

儘管上半年貿易額略有下降，但下降速度放緩至第二季基本持平。

But we still grew our trade volumes, despite global trade volumes remaining subdued.

但儘管全球貿易量仍然低迷，我們的貿易量仍然成長。

And we also increased our market share in trade in Hong Kong to more than 26%.

我們也將香港貿易市佔率提高到26%以上。

On the next topic, our businesses in Hong Kong and the UK both continue to perform well in the first half.

下一個話題，我們在香港和英國的業務上半年都繼續表現良好。

Profit before tax in Hong Kong was up 1% on a constant currency basis, while the Hong Kong corporate loan market remains subdued.

以固定匯率計算，香港稅前利潤成長 1%，而香港企業貸款市場依然低迷。

It was resilient in the second quarter.

第二季表現強勁。

It's too early to call it a trend, but deposits and investment activity increased, which underlines that the rate differential works in both directions.

現在稱其為趨勢還為時過早，但存款和投資活動有所增加，這凸顯了利率差異是雙向的。

We attracted 345,000 new-to-bank customers in the half as we continue to capitalize on significant inflows into Hong Kong from customers seeking opportunities for investments.

我們繼續利用尋求投資機會的客戶大量流入香港，上半年吸引了 345,000 名新銀行客戶。

Profit before tax in the UK business grew by 11%, excluding the gain on SVB UK last year.

不包括去年 SVB UK 的收益，英國業務的稅前利潤成長了 11%。

Customer lending was also up 2%, but our UK business is differentiated by its connectivity with the rest of the group.

客戶貸款也成長了 2%，但我們的英國業務因其與集團其他業務的聯繫而與眾不同。

In the first half, we grew the number of UK international customers by 8% to 2.7 million customers.

上半年，我們的英國國際客戶數量增加了 8%，達到 270 萬客戶。

We have a strong international franchise.

我們擁有強大的國際特許經營權。

We evidenced this through our multi-jurisdictional revenue disclosures in February.

我們透過 2 月的多司法管轄區收入揭露證明了這一點。

And in the first half, we grew wholesale multi-jurisdictional client revenue by 4% to $9.7 billion.

上半年，我們的批發跨司法管轄區客戶收入成長了 4%，達到 97 億美元。

And as I said earlier, this isn't just a wholesale story.

正如我之前所說，這不僅僅是一個批發故事。

We're doing more with our international retail and wealth customers as well.

我們也與國際零售和財富客戶進行更多合作。

We now have 7 million international wealth and personal banking customers with revenue from these customers up 6% to $5.4 billion.

我們現在擁有 700 萬國際財富和個人銀行客戶，來自這些客戶的收入成長了 6%，達到 54 億美元。

So these are the levers that have put us on track to deliver a mid-teens return on tangible equity this year and why we expect to deliver a mid-teens return on tangible equity in 2025.

因此，這些槓桿使我們今年可望實現有形股本回報率達到 10% 左右，也是我們預計 2025 年有形股本回報率達到 10% 左右的原因。

With that, I'll hand over to George.

這樣，我就把任務交給喬治了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you, Noel, and hello, everyone.

謝謝你，諾埃爾，大家好。

Before I get to the Q2 numbers, I'd like to comment briefly on the recent announcement.

在討論第二季的數據之前，我想先簡單評論一下最近的公告。

I'm deeply honored by the trust placed in me to lead this great institution into the future.

我對領導這個偉大機構走向未來的信任深感榮幸。

Many of you may have questions about the future strategy and direction of the group.

你們中的許多人可能對集團未來的策略和方向有疑問。

Although I don't take over as Group Chief Executive until the 2 of September from Noel.

儘管我要到 9 月 2 日才接替 Noel 擔任集團執行長。

I'm ready to share a few high-level thoughts.

我準備好分享一些高層次的想法。

Under Noel's leadership, we have delivered financial performance and built a strong platform for growth.

在諾埃爾的領導下，我們取得了財務表現並建立了強大的成長平台。

The strategy of the group is working, and I am committed to building on this.

集團的策略正在發揮作用，我致力於在此基礎上再接再厲。

The shape of the group is broadly where we wanted to be with the bulk of our capital and other resources deployed in our four scale activities at Hong Kong, the UK, our international wholesale bank, underpinned by our leading transaction banking capabilities and our wealth proposition, particularly in Asia.

該集團的結構大致符合我們的預期，我們的大部分資本和其他資源部署在香港、英國、國際批發銀行的四項規模活動中，以我們領先的交易銀行能力和財富主張為基礎，特別是在亞洲。

This puts us in a very strong position.

這使我們處於非常有利的地位。

In each of these activities, we have scale and sustainable competitive advantages, and our strength are aligned to the needs of our customers.

在每項活動中，我們都擁有規模和可持續的競爭優勢，並且我們的優勢與客戶的需求一致。

They account for the vast majority of the economic profit we generate today and present some of our most exciting opportunities to grow over the next 5 to 10 years.

它們佔了我們今天產生的絕大多數經濟利潤，並為我們提供了未來 5 到 10 年最令人興奮的成長機會。

And together they are capable of delivering above cost of capital returns sustainably through the cycle.

他們共同能夠在整個週期中可持續地提供高於資本成本的回報。

We've made good progress and we are now in a position to accelerate the pace of execution of the strategy with focus and intensity.

我們已經取得了良好的進展，現在我們能夠有重點、有力地加快策略的執行步伐。

To continue to grow revenue on a sustainable trajectory to improve operating leverage while maintaining strong cost discipline and prudent risk management and to continue to improve client service and experience.

繼續以永續的方式增加收入，提高營運槓桿，同時保持嚴格的成本紀律和審慎的風險管理，並持續改善客戶服務和體驗。

You'll also have seen that we have announced this morning that Jon Bingham has been appointed Interim Group CFO from the 2 of September.

您還會看到，我們今天早上宣布 Jon Bingham 從 9 月 2 日起被任命為臨時集團財務長。

Jon is currently our Financial Controller and has outstanding technical accounting and regulatory knowledge and expertise.

喬恩目前是我們的財務總監，擁有出色的技術會計和監管知識和專業知識。

A process to identify the next permanent group CFO is underway, and I will update you further in due course.

確定下一任常任集團財務長的過程正在進行中，我將在適當的時候進一步向您通報最新情況。

Now though, turning to Q2.

現在，轉向第二季。

In summary, profit before tax of $8.9 billion was up $0.4 billion on the second quarter of 2023 on a constant currency basis.

總之，以固定匯率計算，2023 年第二季稅前利潤為 89 億美元，成長了 4 億美元。

In terms of the drivers, the banking NII run rate was stable on the first quarter.

從驅動因素來看，第一季銀行業NII運作穩定。

There was another strong wealth performance, while wholesale transaction banking was stable on last year's second quarter.

財富表現再次強勁，批發交易銀行業務在去年第二季保持穩定。

Despite cost growth of 7% in the first half on a target basis, we remain on track to meet our 2024 guidance of around 5% cost growth, and there was growth in both loans and deposits in the quarter.

儘管上半年成本成長目標為 7%，但我們仍有望實現 2024 年成本成長 5% 左右的指導方針，並且本季貸款和存款均出現成長。

On the next slide, so HSBC Canada contributed around $0.5 billion of revenue and around $0.2 billion of profit before tax in the quarter before the sale completed in March.

在下一張投影片中，加拿大匯豐銀行在 3 月出售完成前的季度貢獻了約 5 億加元的收入和約 2 億加元的稅前利潤。

To make like-for-like comparisons easier, these contributions and some other impact have been excluded from some of the commentary.

為了更容易進行同類比較，這些貢獻和其他一些影響已從一些評論中排除。

So excluding notable items and the impact of strategic transactions, profit before tax was up 7% to $9.1 billion.

因此，排除重要項目和策略交易的影響，稅前利潤成長 7%，達到 91 億美元。

Revenue of $16.5 billion was up $0.3 billion on the second quarter of last year.

營收為 165 億美元，比去年第二季增加 3 億美元。

Excluding notable items and the impact of strategic transactions, revenue was up $0.8 billion or 5% on the second quarter of last year.

剔除重要項目和策略交易的影響，第二季營收較去年成長 8 億美元，即 5%。

Banking NII of $10.9 billion was down $0.4 billion on the first quarter on a reported FX basis, primarily because of a $0.3 billion reduction from the Canada sale.

以報告的匯率計算，第一季銀行業 NII 為 109 億美元，下降了 4 億美元，主要是因為加拿大出售業務減少了 3 億美元。

Excluding this, the banking NII run rate was stable.

除此之外，銀行業NII運作率保持穩定。

We're now in a position to upgrade our 2024 banking NII guidance to around $43 billion.

我們現在可以將 2024 年銀行業 NII 指引上調至 430 億美元左右。

This assumes a $1 billion contribution from Argentina, which was it's reported NII in 2023, although we note that it remains volatile and difficult to predict.

這假設阿根廷貢獻 10 億美元，即 2023 年報告的 NII，儘管我們注意到它仍然不穩定且難以預測。

We're also providing new details to help you understand the expected benefits from the structural hedge.

我們還提供了新的詳細信息，以幫助您了解結構性對沖的預期收益。

Around $55 billion of assets are due to mature in the second half of 2024 with an average yield of 2.8%, and around $105 billion of assets will mature in 2025 with an average yield of 2.8% as well.

約 550 億美元的資產將於 2024 年下半年到期，平均收益率為 2.8%，約 1,050 億美元的資產將於 2025 年到期，平均收益率也為 2.8%。

Turning to fee and other income.

轉向費用和其他收入。

Wholesale transaction banking was stable on the second quarter of last year or up 2%, excluding the impact of strategic transactions.

剔除策略交易的影響，批發交易銀行業務與去年第二季相比保持穩定，成長 2%。

Within this, Global Payments Solutions had another good quarter, up 2% as the security services, which was up 3%.

其中，Global Payments Solutions 季度業績表現出色，成長 2%，而安全服務則成長 3%。

Foreign exchange delivered broadly stable revenue compared to a strong quarter last year.

與去年強勁的季度相比，外匯收入整體穩定。

And wealth had another very good quarter, underlying that our investment is continuing to drive improved results.

財富又一個非常好的季度，這表明我們的投資正在繼續推動業績的改善。

Wealth fee and other income was up by 13% compared to last year's second quarter.

與去年第二季相比，財富管理費和其他收入成長了13%。

Private Banking was a standout performer, mainly driven by increased customer activity in brokerage and trading in Asia.

私人銀行業務表現突出，主要是由於亞洲經紀和交易客戶活動的增加。

But growth in wealth remained broad-based.

但財富增長仍然廣泛。

Customer growth and improved wealth penetration primarily in Asia, helped drive growth in investment distribution.

主要在亞洲的客戶成長和財富滲透率的提高有助於推動投資分銷的成長。

Invested assets were up 2% to $1.3 trillion, including $6 billion of net new invested assets in the quarter.

投資資產成長 2%，達到 1.3 兆美元，其中本季新增投資資產淨值 60 億美元。

And our insurance new business CSM was $0.6 billion, up $0.2 billion on the second quarter. of last year.

我們的保險新業務CSM為6億美元，比第二季增加2億美元。去年的。

On credits, expected credit losses were $0.3 billion in the quarter, equivalent to 15 basis points of average loans.

在信貸方面，本季預期信貸損失為 3 億美元，相當於平均貸款的 15 個基點。

This included $0.4 billion of recoveries and other items mentioned on the slide.

其中包括 4 億美元的追償金額和幻燈片中提到的其他項目。

Excluding these, ECLs were broadly in line with our normal medium-term planning range of 30 to 40 basis points.

排除這些因素，預期信用損失大致符合我們 30 至 40 個基點的正常中期計畫範圍。

Stage three balances were 2.4% of customer loans, up $1.4 billion compared to the first quarter.

第三階段餘額佔客戶貸款的 2.4%，比第一季增加 14 億美元。

This was driven by Hong Kong commercial real estate book, but there was a limited impact on ECL charge because of the high level of collateralization.

這是由香港商業地產帳面推動的，但由於抵押水平較高，對預期信用損失費用的影響有限。

We are revising our 2024 ECL guidance to our normal medium term planning range of 30 to 40 basis points of average loans.

我們正在將 2024 年 ECL 指引修訂為平均貸款 30 至 40 個基點的正常中期計畫範圍。

Next, costs grew by 7% in the first half on a target basis.

其次，上半年成本依目標成長7%。

But we remain on track to meet our guidance of 2024 cost growth of around 5%.2 percentage points of cost growth in the first half came from higher performance-related pay accrual and levies.

但我們仍有望實現 2024 年成本成長 5% 左右的目標。

As we explained at the first quarter, we have phased the accrual of our performance related pay more evenly this year than last year.

正如我們在第一季所解釋的那樣，我們今年比去年更均勻地分階段提列與績效相關的薪酬。

We do not expect the total amount of performance-related pay for 2024 to be materially different to 2023.

我們預期 2024 年績效相關薪酬總額不會與 2023 年有重大差異。

So the accrual in the second half is expected to be lower year-on-year.

因此預計下半年的應計年比會較低。

In addition, the second half of last year included $0.3 billion of levies that we do not expect to repeat this year.

此外，去年下半年包括了 3 億美元的稅收，我們預計今年不會重複徵稅。

We are therefore reconfirming our guidance of around 5% cost growth for 2024 on a target basis and we remain committed to cost discipline.

因此，我們再次確認 2024 年成本成長 5% 左右的目標目標，並持續致力於成本控制。

On lending and deposits, there was positive loan growth in the quarter in both the UK and Asia, whilst Hong Kong was broadly stable.

在貸款和存款方面，英國和亞洲本季的貸款均出現正成長，而香港則基本穩定。

Overall, they were promising signs in the first half.

總體而言，他們在上半場表現出了有希望的跡象。

Deposits were up 2% with the majority of this in Hong Kong.

存款增加了 2%，其中大部分來自香港。

There was also growth in the UK, Europe and the US and the rest of Asia, but it also included the benefits of seasonality in commercial banking and a large one-off in Global Banking and Markets.

英國、歐洲和美國以及亞洲其他地區也出現了成長，但也包括商業銀行業務季節性的好處以及全球銀行和市場的一次性大幅成長。

So I would encourage you not to annualize the 2% figure.

所以我鼓勵你不要將 2% 的數字年化。

Next, our CET1 ratio was 15%, down 20 basis points on the first quarter as strong organic capital generation was offset by distributions in the form of dividends and share buybacks.

接下來，我們的 CET1 比率為 15%，比第一季下降 20 個基點，因為強勁的有機資本生成被股息和股票回購形式的分配所抵消。

We have announced a new share buyback of up to $3 billion, which we expect to complete within three months and to have an impact of around 0.4 percentage points on our CET1 ratio in the third quarter.

我們已宣布進行高達 30 億美元的新股回購，預計將在三個月內完成，並對第三季的 CET1 比率產生約 0.4 個百分點的影響。

Finally, to recap, our strong first half performance and our confidence about the bank's position enable us to provide new guidance of a mid-teens return tangible equity, excluding notable items for 2025 in addition to our existing mid-teens guidance for 2024.

最後，回顧一下，我們上半年的強勁表現和對銀行地位的信心使我們能夠提供有形股本回報率達到10% 左右的新指導，除了我們現有的2024 年10% 左右指導之外，不包括2025年的值得注意的項目。

Upgrade our 2024 banking NII guidance from at least $41 billion to around $43 billion, revise our 2024 ECL guidance to within our normal medium-term planning range of 30 to 40 basis points and reconfirm our guidance for '24 cost growth of around 5% on a target basis and the mid-single digit loan growth over the medium term.

將我們2024 年銀行業NII 指引從至少410 億美元上調至約430 億美元，將2024 年ECL 指引修改至30 至40 個基點的正常中期規劃範圍內，並重新確認24 年成本成長5% 左右的指導目標基礎和中期內的中位數個位數貸款成長。

With that, Louise, can we please go to Q&A.

那麼，路易絲，我們可以進入問答環節嗎？

Thank you.

謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Andrew Coombs, Citigroup.

（操作員指示）Andrew Coombs，花旗集團。

Good morning.

早安.

Thank you both for your comments.

謝謝兩位的評論。

A couple of questions from my side.

我這邊有幾個問題。

One big picture, one into the numbers.

一張大圖，一張數字。

First, a big picture question.

首先，一個大局問題。

Noel, you highlighted all the things you can be out of journal and any, but perhaps with the benefit of hindsight be interested in any thoughts you have or anything you might have done differently?

諾埃爾，你強調了所有你可以不寫在日記裡的事情，但也許事後看來，你會對你的任何想法或你可能採取的不同做法感興趣？

And then linked to that as well, George, I think you're on the tape this morning talking about accelerating the existing execution.

喬治，我想你今天早上在錄音中談到了加速現有的執行。

So any tangible examples you can provide on that would be helpful as well.

因此，您可以提供的任何具體範例也會有所幫助。

And then in terms of the numbers question, thank you for the additional disclosure around structural hedge.

然後就數字問題而言，感謝您對結構性對沖的額外披露。

I think you talked about $55 billion maturing in second half at a 2.8% yield.

我想你談到了下半年到期的 550 億美元，收益率為 2.8%。

Is it fair to assume the new positions that you're putting on are probably about 1% higher than that, given where the forward curve is?

考慮到遠期曲線的位置，假設您所持有的新部位可能比該數字高出 1% 左右，這是否公平？

So prior to any of debt from adding to the existing structural hedge notional, it's about $0.5 billion of NII uplift.

因此，在增加現有結構性對沖概念的任何債務之前，NII 會增加約 5 億美元。

Is that fair?

這樣公平嗎？

Andrew, thanks for your questions.

安德魯，謝謝你的提問。

I'll take the first one.

我就拿第一個。

Listen, I've got no regret, Andrew.

聽著，我不後悔，安德魯。

I think performing this role is an absolute privilege.

我認為扮演這個角色是一種絕對的榮譽。

And look, you never finish with an institution like this, and that's why Georges is right to comment there.

看，你永遠不會結束這樣的機構，這就是為什麼喬治在那裡發表評論是正確的。

You always want to do more yours.

你總是想做更多自己的事。

There's always things you want to improve.

總是有一些事情是你想要改進的。

There's always investment you can do to grow more revenue, to improve customer experience, improve systems and processes.

您始終可以進行投資來增加收入、改善客戶體驗、改進系統和流程。

So there's never a notion of finishing.

所以從來沒有結束的想法。

There's always -- should always be a notion of continuous improvement and continuous ambition.

始終－應該始終有持續改進和持續雄心的理念。

And I think that's probably the bridge from me to Georges because I have no regrets about the last five years.

我認為這可能是我和喬治之間的橋樑，因為我對過去五年沒有遺憾。

I think we've done a lot of good things and I thank my colleagues for everything they've done.

我認為我們做了很多好事，我感謝我的同事所做的一切。

But equally, you should never be complacent and think the job is finished.

但同樣，你永遠不應該自滿並認為工作已經完成。

The job of running an organization as large as ours and with so much opportunity before us to further improve is never finished, and that's the bridge over to Georges now to take it on to the next level and to continue to execute the strategy.

管理像我們這樣大的組織，並有如此多的機會進一步改進，這項工作永遠不會結束，這是喬治現在將其提升到一個新水平並繼續執行戰略的橋樑。

So Georges, hand to you on both of the next two questions, please.

喬治，接下來的兩個問題請交給您。

Thanks, Noel.

謝謝，諾埃爾。

Yes, Andrew, just echoing Noel and building on that.

是的，安德魯，只是呼應諾埃爾並以此為基礎。

We've called out some of the key areas of our strategy.

我們已經提出了我們策略的一些關鍵領域。

I've called out Hong Kong, the UK, the international wholesale bank, which is underpinned by a leading transaction banking capabilities as well as wealth, all of which have demonstrated very strong momentum, certainly over the last few years, but definitely over the first half of this year.

我提到了香港、英國這家國際批發銀行，它以領先的交易銀行能力和財富為基礎，所有這些都表現出了非常強勁的勢頭，當然是在過去幾年，但絕對是在過去幾年中。

We're confident about the momentum.

我們對這勢頭充滿信心。

We're confident in our ability to continue investing in them.

我們對繼續投資它們的能力充滿信心。

And we're confident also we have ample capital to support additional growth.

我們也有信心擁有充足的資本來支持進一步的成長。

So it's just about getting pace -- continued pace in the execution of this strategy that has proved its results.

因此，關鍵是要加快步伐——繼續加快執行該策略的步伐，這已經證明了其結果。

On your question about the structural hedge, Andrew, so $55 billion are expected to mature over the course of the second half at an average yield of 2.8%.

關於結構性對沖的問題，安德魯，預計下半年將有 550 億美元到期，平均殖利率為 2.8%。

If I try to reverse engineer your math and if you assume the reinvestment happens at around 3.8%, with 1% uplift, then you get $500 billion.

如果我嘗試對你的數學進行逆向工程，假設再投資率約為 3.8%，再加上 1% 的提升，那麼你將獲得 5000 億美元。

But remember, this is maturities that are happening over the course of the half.

但請記住，這是在上半場發生的到期事件。

Therefore, I think you have to average the number and therefore you have to assume half the number as in year 2024 benefit from that structure and hedging investment, so say, the half of your $0.5 billion you quoted.

因此，我認為你必須對這個數字進行平均，因此你必須假設 2024 年受益於該結構和對沖投資的一半數字，也就是說，你引用的 5 億美元的一半。

Also bear in mind that we are increasing the structural hedge, subject to market conditions.

另請記住，我們正在根據市場情況增加結構性對沖。

We've done about $25 billion in the first half.

上半年我們完成了大約 250 億美元。

It's a good estimate of the run rate for the second half.

這是對下半場運行率的一個很好的估計。

And that is a mild headwind because we're increasing the hedge from higher short-term rates into lower longer-term rates due to the inversion of the curve.

這是一個溫和的逆風，因為由於曲線倒掛，我們正在增加從較高的短期利率到較低的長期利率的對沖。

So you have to take all of this into consideration when factoring in the impact for 2024 banking NII.

因此，在考慮 2024 年銀行 NII 的影響時，您必須考慮所有這些因素。

Amit Goel, Mediobanca.

阿米特·戈爾，Mediobanca。

Hi, thank you for taking my questions.

你好，謝謝你回答我的問題。

So I have three.

所以我有三個。

Firstly, I was a bit surprised to get the 2025 profitability target, which does seem to be a little bit above consensus.

首先，我對 2025 年的獲利目標感到有點驚訝，這似乎確實有點高於共識。

So I think consensus is about 14%.

所以我認為共識約 14%。

So I guess a bit of variation on mid-teens, but if that's kind of 15%, 16%, 17%.

所以我猜十幾歲左右的人會有一點變化，但大概是 15%、16%、17%。

Just curious where you see a bit more upside.

只是好奇你在哪裡看到了更多的好處。

Is that mainly on the revs or can you see a bit more cost control?

這主要是在轉速還是你能看到更多的成本控制？

And then linked to that, Georges, I think in your comments as well, you talked about growing revenues on a sustainable basis.

與此相關的是，喬治，我認為在您的評論中，您也談到了可持續增長的收入。

So just curious, again, how you're thinking about that potentially with some NII headwinds?

所以我再次好奇，在 NII 面臨一些阻力的情況下，您是如何考慮這一點的？

And then lastly, Noel, I think you used the term sluggish or subdued a few times when talking about the environment.

最後，諾埃爾，我認為您在談論環境時多次使用了“遲緩”或“柔和”這個詞。

Just curious when you think that will potentially turn and we can see a more constructive environment to some of those markets?

只是好奇您是否認為這種情況可能會轉變，並且我們可以看到其中一些市場更具建設性的環境？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Sounds good.

聽起來不錯。

Amit, I'll ask Georges to answer the first one, I think, is probably best on the mid-teens and the definition of mid-teens and then also maybe sustainable revenue.

阿米特，我會請喬治回答第一個問題，我認為，這可能是關於青少年和青少年的定義最好的，然後也可能是永續收入。

And then I'll cover the third.

然後我將介紹第三個。

Very good.

非常好。

Thank you, Amit.

謝謝你，阿米特。

So consensus, if you adjust consensus for 2025 for the impact of the loss from the sale of Argentina, which, by the way, as we communicated now, we expect by the end of the year.

因此，如果你根據出售阿根廷造成的損失的影響調整 2025 年的共識，順便說一句，正如我們現在所傳達的，我們預計到今年年底。

Therefore, it's more reasonable to assume that that loss -- the recycling of the foreign exchange loss of $5 billion, which has no impact on capital or on distribution.

因此，更合理的假設是，50億美元的外匯損失被回收，對資本或分配沒有影響。

It's fair to assume that impact will happen in '24.

可以公平地假設影響將在 24 年發生。

But if you adjust the consensus in '25, you get to around 14% indeed.

但如果你調整 25 年的共識，你確實會達到 14% 左右。

Our definition of mid-teens is broadly around 14% to 16%.

我們對青少年的定義大致在 14% 到 16% 左右。

So without commenting on the consensus, our mid-teens definition is broadly that 14%, 16% range.

因此，在不評論共識的情況下，我們對青少年的定義大致是 14%、16% 的範圍。

On the growing revenue on a sustainable basis, let me point you to three major indicators, which are going to be important in the way we look at the future.

關於永續成長的收入，讓我向您指出三個主要指標，這些指標對於我們展望未來至關重要。

The first one related to banking NII.

第一個與銀行 NII 相關。

Banking NII, number one, has been stabilized partly with the reduction of banking NII sensitivity.

隨著銀行業NII敏感度的降低，排名第一的銀行業NII已經穩定下來。

If you recall, two years ago, we called out $7 billion to be the impact on banking NII on our revenue for a 100 basis point drop in interest rates.

如果你還記得，兩年前，我們要求利率下降 100 個基點，對銀行 NII 對我們收入的影響為 70 億美元。

That number at the year-end was $3.4 billion.

截至年底，這一數字為 34 億美元。

And that number, as we reported it now is $2.7 billion.

正如我們現在報導的那樣，這個數字是 27 億美元。

So therefore, we have -- through activities of structural hedging, but also through other methodology improvements and balance sheet composition, we have reduced the dependency of our earnings and of our banking NII to the impact of low rates.

因此，透過結構性對沖活動，以及其他方法改進和資產負債表組成，我們減少了利潤和銀行NII對低利率影響的依賴。

The second component, again, relating to banking NII is that while for a few quarters we've seen subdued loan growth in particular in the UK and Hong Kong wholesale market, we have now seen stabilization.

第二個與銀行業國家資訊基礎設施相關的部分是，雖然幾個季度以來我們看到貸款增長疲軟，特別是在英國和香港批發市場，但現在我們已經看到了穩定。

It's early to call it a trend, but we are encouraged by the stabilization we've observed.

現在將其稱為趨勢還為時過早，但我們對觀察到的穩定性感到鼓舞。

And importantly, we will be more encouraged to when we see rates coming off in the support they can have for loan growth, in particular in these two areas that historically have been a little bit more sluggish.

重要的是，當我們看到利率下降對貸款成長的支持時，我們會更加受到鼓舞，特別是在歷史上一直比較低迷的這兩個領域。

Other parts of our activity remained resilient loan growth and in South and Southeast Asia remained very strong loan growth in the mortgage businesses and the UK and Hong Kong remain very strong.

我們活動的其他部分仍然保持強勁的貸款成長，南亞和東南亞的抵押貸款業務貸款成長仍然非常強勁，英國和香港仍然非常強勁。

So there is a volume component to banking NII, which we supported.

因此，我們支持銀行 NII 的數量組成部分。

And as you can see from our capital, we have ample capacity to support loan growth.

正如您從我們的資本中看到的那樣，我們有足夠的能力來支持貸款成長。

And the third component I would call out is the non-banking NII part of our earnings, fees and other income, in particular wholesale transaction banking and wealth.

我要指出的第三個組成部分是我們收入、費用和其他收入中的非銀行NII部分，特別是批發交易銀行業務和財富。

You've seen the momentum in these businesses.

您已經看到了這些業務的發展勢頭。

You've seen the continued investment we've put in these businesses.

您已經看到我們對這些業務的持續投資。

We believe these momentums are sustainable.

我們相信這些勢頭是可持續的。

There's an underlying sustainable trend supporting wealth, in particular, in Asia.

有一個潛在的永續趨勢支撐著財富，特別是在亞洲。

And there is an additional support through our own investments, both technology and people relationship management related to support growth in this area, and we believe the momentum is sustainable.

我們也透過自己的投資提供了額外的支持，包括與支持該領域成長相關的技術和人員關係管理，我們相信這種勢頭是可持續的。

So those are the big -- broadly three components that we believe will sustain our earnings as we look into the future.

因此，這些是我們認為在展望未來時將維持我們的盈利的重要組成部分，大致上是三個組成部分。

And Amit, just to come a little bit more elaboration on the sluggish subdued.

阿米特（Amit）只是想對緩慢柔和的情況進行更多闡述。

Listen, I'm not surprised that the corporate loan market is a bit subdued at the moment.

聽著，我對企業貸款市場目前有點低迷並不感到驚訝。

I think it's right for that to be the case because in a higher interest rate environment, not many corporates out there want to borrow at today's interest rates and actually they still got a lot of cash sitting on their balance sheet.

我認為這種情況是正確的，因為在利率較高的環境下，沒有多少企業願意以今天的利率借款，而且實際上他們的資產負債表上仍然有大量現金。

They don't need to borrow, which is a good, a good position to be in.

他們不需要藉錢，這是一個很好的位置。

But as you see interest rates come down, I would expect there to be a pickup in activity.

但當你看到利率下降時，我預計經濟活動將會增加。

And I suppose what Georges said is we're starting to see very early signs of that, starting to emerge.

我想喬治所說的是我們開始看到這種情況的早期跡象，開始出現。

It's very early.

時間還很早。

It's too early to call it a trend, but I was pleased in Hong Kong, the rate of decline in the lending book -- corporate lending book in Hong Kong in Q1 reduced dramatically.

現在稱其為趨勢還為時過早，但我對香港感到高興，第一季香港的貸款帳簿——企業貸款帳簿——的下降率大幅下降。

So we've been declining through 2023, and it actually plateaued in Q2, and that's in Hong Kong.

因此，我們在 2023 年一直在下降，實際上在第二季度達到了穩定水平，那就是在香港。

And then in the rest of Asia, we saw a growth in Q1 and Q2.

然後在亞洲其他地區，我們看到第一季和第二季的成長。

And in the rest of the world, we saw growth in Q1 and Q2.

在世界其他地區，我們在第一季和第二季看到了成長。

So the Q1 was the first time we saw net growth in corporate lending.

因此，第一季是我們第一次看到企業貸款淨成長。

Q2, we saw that growth as well.

第二季度，我們也看到了這種成長。

So I think it's encouraging early signs.

所以我認為這是令人鼓舞的早期跡象。

As interest rates come off, I see that happening.

隨著利率下降，我看到這種情況正在發生。

And then the other thing is you've also got to remember, there's another side to the Hong Kong market.

另一件事是你還必須記住，香港市場還有另一面。

The deposit market in the investment market is very strong as you saw in our wealth businesses.

正如您在我們的財富業務中看到的那樣，投資市場的存款市場非常強勁。

Now the net new invested assets going in to the business, I think, in the first half of this year was about $34 billion.

我認為，今年上半年進入該業務的淨新投資資產約為 340 億美元。

If I remember correctly.

如果我沒記錯的話。

And I think as rates come off, cash moves into invested assets.

我認為隨著利率下降，現金就會流入投資資產。

And I think we see -- we're a beneficiary of that, particularly in Hong Kong, where rate differentials are playing strongly into the investment market, whereas the subdue in -- the rate differentials are subdued in the demand for loans in the Hong Kong market, but the rate differential is working in the opposite direction on investments.

我認為我們是其中的受益者，特別是在香港，利差對投資市場的影響很大，而利差在香港的貸款需求中受到抑制。

Joseph Dickerson, Jefferies.

約瑟夫·迪克森，杰弗里斯。

Hi, thank you for taking my question.

你好，謝謝你回答我的問題。

Just a couple of quick things.

只是一些快速的事情。

So on the ROTE guidance, if you look in the first half of the year, you've kind of done an underlying number of 17%, and that was with some -- you've had a few credit headwinds, but generally benign.

因此，根據 ROTE 指導，如果你看看今年上半年，你的基本數字是 17%，這是有一些的——你遇到了一些信貸逆風，但總體來說是良性的。

I guess if you think about things like cash moving into invested assets, which should be higher ROE.

我想如果你考慮現金轉移到投資資產之類的事情，那麼淨資產收益率應該會更高。

Your wealth and personal banking ROE is around 31% at the moment.

您的財富和個人銀行業務 ROE 目前約為 31%。

You're doing about a 22% UK ROE.

英國的 ROE 約為 22%。

I guess, what would hold you back from maintaining that level in '25 and '26, notwithstanding some rate cuts?

我想，儘管有一些降息，什麼會阻止你在 25 和 26 年保持這一水平？

It seems like there's a lot more flex in the model from the -- in your business model.

看起來你的商業模式中的模型有更多的彈性。

I mean I know you need to be conservative, but I guess is it rates that would hold you back lack of activity?

我的意思是，我知道你需要保守，但我想利率會阻礙你缺乏活動嗎？

And I guess the follow-on --

我想接下來的事情——

I think is a fair observation, but I think -- and we're not being conservative for the sake of being conservative.

我認為這是一個公平的觀察，但我認為——我們並不是為了保守而保守。

I think it is too early to call a return to volume growth in the corporate loan market in substantial proportions.

我認為現在斷言企業貸款市場數量大幅成長還為時過早。

I think we all expect the rates to come off and cash to move from cash to invested assets.

我認為我們都預期利率會下降，現金會從現金轉向投資資產。

I think we just -- it's still a bit early in the cycle.

我認為我們只是——現在還處於週期的早期。

There's a lot of uncertainty still out there.

仍然存在許多不確定性。

And I think given our guidance of mid-teens, which is somewhere between the 14% and 16% range, is fair at this point in time.

我認為考慮到我們對青少年的指導（介於 14% 和 16% 之間），目前來看是公平的。

I think the most important thing we've tried to do over the past few years is de-lever each quarter and each quarter be the base for the future.

我認為過去幾年我們嘗試做的最重要的事情是每個季度去槓桿化，每個季度都為未來奠定基礎。

So I think it's better to set reasonable and sensible guidance.

所以我認為最好設定合理、明智的指導。

And then we continue to evidence progress against that as quarter by quarter goes.

然後我們繼續證明每個季度都取得了進展。

So I don't think we're in the mode as an institution of being overly bullish one way or the other, particularly when there's still quite a bit of uncertainty over there.

因此，我不認為我們作為一個機構處於過度樂觀的模式，特別是當那裡仍然存在相當多的不確定性時。

But Georges, is there anything you want to add?

但是喬治，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

No, nothing, Noel.

不，沒什麼，諾埃爾。

You covered it.

你覆蓋了它。

Just one parameter also just to add is just remember to remove the impact of Argentina with the expected sale taking place at the end of this year in your 2025 assessments.

只需要添加一個參數，記住在 2025 年評估中消除阿根廷的影響，預計銷售將在今年年底進行。

Raul Sinha, JPMorgan.

勞爾辛哈，摩根大通。

Hi, good morning.

早安.

Thank you for taking my questions.

感謝您回答我的問題。

I was just trying to dig into some of your commentary around the hedge.

我只是想深入了解你的一些評論。

I was wondering -- I have about two questions.

我想知道——我有兩個問題。

The first one is just trying to understand how the notional size of the hedge is changing in the UK versus the rest of the world?

第一個只是想了解英國相對於世界其他地區的對沖名義規模如何變化？

My understanding was that the structural hedging in the UK was quite a mature book.

我的理解是，英國的結構性對沖是一本相當成熟的書。

So I wouldn't have expected that to increase in size going forward.

所以我沒想到它的規模會繼續擴大。

And I would think that most of the low-yielding refinancings are coming from the UK.

我認為大部分低收益再融資都來自英國。

But as when we think about the rest of the world, it looks like your structural hedging was more recent.

但當我們考慮世界其他地區時，結構性對沖似乎是最近才採取的。

So there's probably scope to increase that, but maybe the refinancing yield is a bit higher.

因此，可能還有增加的空間，但再融資收益率可能會更高一些。

Is that kind of right understanding is the first question.

這樣的認識是否正確是首要問題。

The second question is just coming to the Hong Kong CRE book and some of the disclosures we've pulled out there.

第二個問題是關於香港商業地產書籍以及我們從中取出的一些揭露內容。

I think $36 billion of total exposure, 40% of that is unsecured.

我認為總風險敞口為 360 億美元，其中 40% 是無擔保的。

I was just wondering if you could give us a little bit more additional color around the unsecured part of Hong Kong CRE.

我只是想知道您能否為我們香港商業房地產的無抵押部分提供更多的色彩。

I think you say it's very good quality, but how you look to manage the risks given the unsecured nature of this CRE book?

我認為您說它的品質非常好，但是考慮到這本 CRE 書的無擔保性質，您如何管理風險？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Georges, do you want to pick up both of those?

喬治，你想把這兩個都拿起來嗎？

Sure, Noel.

當然，諾埃爾。

So Raul, on the hedge size, we haven't given the specific currency split to balance sheet split.

所以勞爾，關於對沖規模，我們沒有給出具體的貨幣分割到資產負債表分割。

But yes, you should assume the sterling component is one of the largest component in terms of the hedge size and the UK.

但是，是的，您應該假設英鎊成分是就對沖規模和英國而言最大的成分之一。

Therefore, the sterling component is one of the most mature by way of size of hedge but there is obviously still previous hedges maturing -- you know, previous hedges struck at lower yields maturing, and we're able to benefit from the reinvestment of maturing hedges at higher yield.

因此，就對沖規模而言，英鎊成分是最成熟的成分之一，但顯然之前的對沖仍然在到期——你知道，之前的對沖以較低的收益率進行到期，我們能夠從到期的再投資中受益以更高的收益率進行對沖。

That was still a component in the UK banks NIM, which has been broadly stable and we expect to remain broadly stable.

這仍然是英國銀行淨利差的一個組成部分，它一直大致穩定，我們預計將保持大致穩定。

And the structural hedge reinvestment is playing a role in that.

結構性對沖再投資正在其中發揮作用。

With regards to the rest of the world, it's a story of two tales indeed.

對於世界其他地方來說，這確實是兩個故事的故事。

There is a reinvestment of all structural hedges at higher yields and that is a tailwind in our bank NII.

所有結構性對沖都以更高的收益率進行再投資，這對我們銀行的國家資訊基礎設施來說是一個順風車。

And there is also additional hedges we're doing where we can.

我們也正在盡可能地採取額外的對沖措施。

And these additional hedges are suffering from partial set off -- or it's partial offset as a headwind because they're suffering from the fact that the curves are inverted.

這些額外的對沖正在遭受部分抵消——或者說它作為逆風而被部分抵消，因為它們受到曲線倒轉這一事實的影響。

But it's still the right thing to do for the management of our banking NII sensitivity.

但對於我們銀行業 NII 敏感度的管理來說，這仍然是正確的做法。

And then obviously, always keep in mind that the Hong Kong dollar exposure we have remains largely under hedged, and that's due to the fact that the structure of the market does not give us enough instruments to be able to invest in the long term to support hedging.

顯然，請始終記住，我們所持有的港元風險在很大程度上仍處於對沖狀態，這是因為市場結構沒有為我們提供足夠的工具來支持長期投資對沖。

So the Hong Kong dollar would remain structurally under hedged in that sense.

因此，從這個意義上來說，港元在結構上仍然處於對沖狀態。

With regards to the Hong Kong CRE question, so 40% of the book is -- of the $36 billion you mentioned is unsecured.

關於香港 CRE 問題，在您提到的 360 億美元中，有 40% 是無擔保的。

It is typically exposure to large conglomerates with a diversified revenue stream, including revenue streams from activities not related to real estate. 90% of that book today is rated strong and good and literally 0% is in the impaired category.

它通常接觸具有多元化收入來源的大型企業集團，包括與房地產無關的活動的收入來源。如今，該書 90% 的內容被評為優秀，而實際上 0% 屬於受損類別。

We're very comfortable with the exposure we have in that book, and we continue, obviously, supporting our customers through the cycle in this space.

我們對這本書中的曝光感到非常滿意，顯然，我們將繼續在這個領域的周期中為我們的客戶提供支援。

Jeremy Hugh, CICC.

傑里米·休，中金公司。

Good morning, Noel.

早上好，諾埃爾。

Good morning, Georges.

早上好，喬治。

My first question is on the non-interest income.

我的第一個問題是關於非利息收入。

If my math is correct, my calculation shows that our adjusted non-interest income is $5.8 billion this quarter compared to $5.3 billion a year ago.

如果我的數學正確的話，我的計算顯示本季調整後的非利息收入為 58 億美元，而一年前為 53 億美元。

And we had $200 million gross NOLs, transaction banking is relatively stable, so since GBM contributed a lot this quarter.

我們的 NOL 總額為 2 億美元，交易銀行業務相對穩定，因此 GBM 本季貢獻很大。

So I understand that this business is -- has seasonality and is volatile.

所以我知道這項業務具有季節性且不穩定。

But do you expect that momentum to continue going forward?

但您預計這種勢頭會持續下去嗎？

Or do you think in the second half of last year is relatively a weak comparison?

或者說你認為去年下半年是比較弱勢的時候？

The second question is a broader one.

第二個問題是一個更廣泛的問題。

Because I realize now you speak less about focusing Asia these days than you used to and emphasizing more on the global network.

因為我現在意識到，您現在比以前更少談論關注亞洲，而更多地強調全球網路。

Yeah, sometimes, in some way, they do intersect, but I'm wondering do you still focus on exploring some bolt-on opportunities in Asia and lost business in the future and do you have a capital distribution hierarchy or preference among dividend, buyback, and growth.

是的，有時，在某種程度上，它們確實有交叉，但我想知道您是否仍然專注於探索亞洲的一些補充機會並在未來失去業務，以及您在股息、回購之間是否有資本分配層次或偏好和成長。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Okay.

好的。

Georges, do you want to take the first one?

喬治，你想拿第一個嗎？

I'll give a few comments on the second one and you take the third one on capital distribution.

我將對第二個提出一些評論，您對第三個關於資本分配的評論。

Very good.

非常好。

Thanks, Noel.

謝謝，諾埃爾。

Jeremy, so without giving specific comments on the quarter by quarter, you know, specifics in the development of our fees and other income component, the growth that you've observed year on year in Q2 were mainly driven from two areas.

傑里米，因此，如果沒有對每個季度給出具體評論，您知道，我們的費用和其他收入組成部分的發展細節，您在第二季度觀察到的同比增長主要來自兩個領域。

The first one is wealth, which is obviously a very strategic area where we continue to invest and exhibited growth.

第一個是財富，這顯然是一個非常具有戰略意義的領域，我們將繼續投資並表現出成長。

The other one was from market, in particular from some of the equity business in markets.

另一種是來自市場，特別是來自市場上的一些股權業務。

T

時間

This is coming on the basis of two components.

這是基於兩個組件的。

One is subdued Q2 last year.

其中一個是去年第二季的低迷。

So there was a base effect which benefited the outlook for Q2 this year.

因此，基數效應有利於今年第二季的前景。

And then the second one is the fact that we've seen more activity and more vigorousness in -- if you on the Asian stock market, in particular, the Hong Kong stock market.

第二個事實是，如果你在亞洲股市，特別是香港股市，我們看到了更多的活動和更有活力。

And we're encouraged by this.

我們對此感到鼓舞。

And if the trend continues, this will bode well for additional activity in this space.

如果這種趨勢持續下去，這將是該領域更多活動的好兆頭。

Let me jump to the third question, and I'll hand over to Noel to conclude on the second one.

讓我跳到第三個問題，然後我將交給諾埃爾來總結第二個問題。

Capital distribution hierarchy.

資本分配層級。

First, we've committed to 50% dividend payout ratio for this year, which means half our earnings will be earmarked for foreseeable dividend.

首先，我們承諾今年的股利支付率為50%，這意味著我們一半的收入將用於可預見的股利。

Part of it will be distributed through our interim dividend.

其中一部分將透過我們的中期股息進行分配。

The rest will be netted out at the end of the year.

其餘的將在年底扣除。

After that, we obviously will use capital to support the organic growth of our business.

之後，我們顯然將利用資本來支持我們業務的有機成長。

Loan growth, as we said earlier, started to pick-up in certain areas.

正如我們之前所說，貸款成長在某些領域開始回升。

We are encouraged, but we have ample capital to support the loan growth, the appetite we have.

我們受到鼓舞，但我們有充足的資本來支持貸款成長和我們的胃口。

We will look at bolt-on acquisitions or areas that are dead on strategy, but supportive of acceleration of the strategy.

我們將關注補強收購或策略上已死的領域，但支持策略的加速。

That will be part of utilization of excess capital.

這將是多餘資本利用的一部分。

And any excess beyond that, we will distribute back to shareholders through a rolling series of share buybacks.

除此之外，我們將透過一系列滾動股票回購將多餘的部分分配給股東。

If you look at our CET1 ratio today at 15% and you look at our capital accretion that we remain capital generative in the business, based on the guidance we've given for this year and next year.

如果你看看我們今天 15% 的 CET1 比率，再看看我們的資本增值，就會發現，根據我們今年和明年給出的指導，我們在業務中仍然具有資本生成能力。

We're confident we will have capacity to deliver on the three.

我們相信我們有能力實現這三項目標。

And I will say the buybacks will continue looking at it on a quarter-by-quarter basis with the ambition to have a rolling series of share buybacks.

我想說的是，回購將繼續按季度進行，並雄心勃勃地進行一系列滾動股票回購。

Thanks, Jeremy.

謝謝，傑里米。

And on your second question, is it an Asia strategy?

關於你的第二個問題，這是亞洲策略嗎？

Is there an international strategy?

有國際化戰略嗎？

I think they're interchange.

我認為他們是互換的。

Well, I don't think they're mutually exclusive because if you look at what we do at the core of what we've done for 158 years or more is we've connected entrepreneurs and businesses who want to trade with the world.

嗯，我不認為它們是相互排斥的，因為如果你看看我們 158 年或更長時間以來所做的核心工作就是我們將想要與世界進行貿易的企業家和企業聯繫起來。

That's what we've done from day one of HSBC being founded.

這就是我們從匯豐銀行成立第一天起就一直在做的事情。

So we're essentially about helping businesses and individuals trade internationally, invest internationally.

因此，我們本質上是幫助企業和個人進行國際貿易、國際投資。

Now why are they one and the same?

為什麼它們是同一個？

Well, a huge amount of the entrepreneurs that we have as clients are based in Asia, they're based in the Middle East, they're based in the East, and they trade with the West.

嗯，我們作為客戶的大量企業家來自亞洲、中東、東方，他們與西方進行貿易。

And the West trades with the East.

西方與東方進行貿易。

And Asia and the Middle East are the high-growth markets.

亞洲和中東是高成長市場。

So I don't think it's an either or.

所以我認為這不是一個非此即彼的問題。

I think, for us, it's very simple that is we're internationally driven.

我認為，對我們來說，很簡單，那就是我們是國際化的。

And Asia is a hugely connected international part of the world and will remain so going forward.

亞洲是世界上一個緊密相連的國際部分，未來仍將如此。

The nature of trade will change as it has done for 158 years.

正如 158 年來一樣，貿易的性質將會改變。

So I think we use the words Asia and international probably interchangeably, and sometimes it gets people confused.

所以我認為我們可能可以互換使用“亞洲”和“國際”這兩個詞，有時這會讓人們感到困惑。

We're investing where there is growth and where we have differentiation.

我們在有成長和差異化的地方進行投資。

There is growth, there is international connectivity, there is differentiation in Asia.

亞洲有成長、有國際連結性、有分化。

There is in the Middle East.

中東有。

And we have the same here in the UK.

我們在英國也有同樣的情況。

Fundamentally at the core, we're an international bank.

從根本上說，我們是一家國際銀行。

(Operator Instructions) Aman Rakkar, Barclays.

（操作員指示）Aman Rakkar，巴克萊銀行。

Good morning, gents.

早安，先生們。

Noel, I just wanted to start off and congratulate you on your excellent tenure at HSBC.

諾埃爾，我只想先祝賀您在匯豐銀行的出色任期。

I just wanted to wish you very best going forward with whatever it is you decide to do.

我只是祝福你無論決定做什麼都能順利前進。

And Georges, on a simple thing, just to extend my congratulations on your appointment as CEO.

喬治，為了一件簡單的事情，我只是想祝賀你被任命為執行長。

I had two questions, please, both on the interest income.

我有兩個問題，都是關於利息收入的。

So point of clarification, I guess your banking NII guide this year of circa $43 billion at face value does imply a material step up in net interest income in H2.

因此需要澄清的是，我猜今年銀行業 NII 指南的面額約為 430 億美元，這確實意味著下半年淨利息收入將出現實質成長。

I just wanted to check, I mean, you're guiding for Argentina being $1 billion this year, and I think it was the best part of $900 million in H1.

我只是想檢查一下，我的意思是，您對阿根廷今年的預算為 10 億美元，我認為這是上半年 9 億美元中最好的部分。

So is it literally just Argentina dropping out of net interest income in H2 is driving that?

那麼，這真的只是阿根廷下半年淨利息收入的下降造成的嗎？

And what would really, really help is the kind of momentum of NII in H2 and the extent to which that carries over into '25?

真正真正有幫助的是下半年 NII 的勢頭以及這種勢頭在多大程度上延續到 25 年？

I'm not necessarily looking for an updated guide here.

我不一定要在這裡尋找更新的指南。

But if I just take again to your banking NII disclosure at face value, it's implying a kind of $42 billion annualized run rate in H2 ex-Argentina.

但如果我再次從表面上看你們銀行業 NII 披露，這意味著下半年（阿根廷除外）的年化運作率為 420 億美元。

What do you think the puts and takes are on that, if we were to kind of look a bit further afield beyond this year?

如果我們把目光放得更遠一些，到今年以後，你認為看跌期權和看跌期權會怎麼樣？

And then the second question was if I could just get you to update your thoughts around deposit passthroughs.

第二個問題是我是否可以讓您更新您對存款傳遞的想法。

You're obviously noting you've hedged more of the balance sheet now.

您顯然注意到您現在已經對沖了更多的資產負債表。

And what if actually passthroughs were to be say 10% lower than what you're modeling in your updated banking NII sensitivity?

如果實際傳遞比您在更新的銀行 NII 敏感度中建模的值低 10%，又會怎麼樣呢？

That would be really helpful.

這真的很有幫助。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Georges, do you want to take that?

喬治，你想要那個嗎？

Yeah.

是的。

Thanks, Noel.

謝謝，諾埃爾。

Aman, thank you.

阿曼，謝謝你。

So on your first question, look, around $43 billion of banking NII for this year is a reasonable expectation.

因此，關於你的第一個問題，今年銀行業 NII 約為 430 億美元是一個合理的預期。

And we're more confident about it because we're already seven month into the year.

我們對此更有信心，因為今年已經進入七個月了。

And somewhat the forward rate outlook has become a bit less volatile than we've experienced in over the last few months.

在某種程度上，遠期利率前景的波動性比我們過去幾個月經歷的要小一些。

Argentina, we have worked with a planning assumption of $1 billion.

阿根廷，我們的計畫假設為 10 億美元。

So within around $43 billion, we've factored in around $1 billion contribution from Argentina.

因此，在大約 430 億美元中，我們考慮了來自阿根廷的約 10 億美元的貢獻。

It is a very difficult to predict number.

這是一個非常難以預測的數字。

It is a very volatile number, and therefore, the best of estimate you can use around $42 billion and add whatever other expectations you may have for Argentina, but we're sticking with this $1 billion estimate on the uncertainty, just for reference, $1 billion was the banking NII contribution of Argentina in 2023, and this is how we're building the assumption for our -- for planning for this year.

這是一個非常不穩定的數字，因此，您可以使用大約420 億美元的最佳估計，並添加您對阿根廷可能有的任何其他期望，但我們堅持對不確定性進行10 億美元的估計，僅供參考，1 美元10 億美元是阿根廷 2023 年銀行業國家資訊基礎設施的貢獻，這就是我們為今年的規劃建立假設的方式。

Now if you look forward for H2, headwinds and tailwinds facing the banking NII, the first one to call out is the rate outlook.

現在，如果您展望下半年，銀行業NII面臨的逆風和順風，第一個要指出的是利率前景。

We're using the mid-July curves, which comprise broadly between one and two rate cuts across all the major currencies in the second half.

我們使用的是 7 月中旬的曲線，大致包括下半年所有主要貨幣的一到兩次降息。

This is the working assumption.

這是工作假設。

The second one is on the structural hedge.

第二個是結構性對沖。

Since we called out earlier, you should expect to benefit from the $55 billion maturing assets in 2H at 2.8% yields, which would be reinvested at higher yields than the prevailing yields in H2, which will be higher, take a five-year rate as a good benchmark for what rates will be reinvested at.

由於我們先前指出，您應該預期能夠以2.8% 的收益率從下半年550 億美元的到期資產中受益，這些資產將以高於下半年現行收益率的方式進行再投資，而下半年的現行殖利率將會更高，以五年期利率計算再投資利率的良好基準。

But this is partly offset by the additional structural hedging we are likely to do on an inverted curve.

但這在某種程度上被我們可能在倒轉曲線上進行的額外結構性對沖所抵消。

Again, here, your best guide is what we've done in H1. $25 billion of additional structural hedging is a reasonable run rate to expect for H2, but will depend on market conditions in H2.

同樣，在這裡，您最好的指南就是我們在上半年所做的事情。預計下半年 250 億美元的額外結構性對沖是合理的，但將取決於下半年的市場狀況。

The other components that are playing is headwinds and tailwinds are the balance sheet growth, where we continue to see strong growth in South and Southeast Asia.

其他影響因素是資產負債表的成長，我們繼續看到南亞和東南亞的強勁成長。

We continue to see resilience in the mortgage books in the UK and Hong Kong.

我們繼續看到英國和香港抵押貸款帳簿的彈性。

But we are now encouraged to see stability in the Hong Kong wholesale book, which has been on a decline for a few quarters.

但我們現在看到香港批發業務的穩定性感到鼓舞，該業務已經連續幾季下降。

It's early to call it a trend, but it is now -- it is definitely green shoots when we look forward, and it will be supported with rate reductions as in the balance sheet growth in this space.

現在稱其為趨勢還為時過早，但現在已經如此——當我們展望未來時，它絕對是萌芽，並且它將得到降息的支持，就像該領域資產負債表增長一樣。

And then the last one to call out is deposit migration.

最後一個值得關注的是存款遷移。

That's particularly true in Hong Kong.

在香港尤其如此。

Again, Q1, Q2, we've seen migration at 0% and 1%, respectively, which is a 1% overall on the half.

同樣，第一季和第二季度，我們分別看到遷移率為 0% 和 1%，上半年整體遷移率為 1%。

Just to put it in perspective, this is after full year '23, where we've seen 12%.

客觀地說，這是 23 年全年後的情況，我們看到了 12%。

So again, the trend here is much more encouraging.

再說一次，這裡的趨勢更加令人鼓舞。

We're very unlikely to see anywhere near the trend of last year, but it remains a difficult one to predict.

我們不太可能看到接近去年的趨勢，但它仍然很難預測。

Now as you look forward into the full year 2025, we're not guiding on banking NII, but a few points for you to bear in mind.

現在，當您展望 2025 年全年時，我們並不是針對銀行 NII 提供指導，而是請您牢記以下幾點。

The first one is, please remove Argentina's contribution, again, working assumption, $1 billion.

第一個是，請再次刪除阿根廷的捐款（工作假設為 10 億美元）。

This is following the planned sale of Argentina to take place before the end of the year.

此前，阿根廷計劃於今年底前出售。

Second, remove the one quarter contribution from Canada, $0.3 billion in your NII.

其次，從您的 NII 中扣除加拿大四分之一的貢獻，即 3 億美元。

Then we've shared that there will be $105 billion of existing structural hedge assets which will mature in 2025 with an average yield of 2.8%.

然後我們分享了現有的結構性對沖資產將有 1050 億美元，這些資產將於 2025 年到期，平均收益率為 2.8%。

So those will provide some tailwind as we reinvest them at higher yield.

因此，當我們以更高的收益率對它們進行再投資時，這些將提供一些推動力。

So beyond that, you can apply your own interest rate assumptions on the banking NII sensitivity we provided.

除此之外，您還可以根據我們提供的銀行 NII 敏感度來應用您自己的利率假設。

$2.7 billion is the sensitivity you provided across all currencies for a 100 basis point drop.

27 億美元是您為所有貨幣下跌 100 個基點提供的敏感度。

And you can apply your balance sheet growth assumption.

您可以應用您的資產負債表成長假設。

And again, we believe lower rates will be more supportive of growth in balance sheet when you look into 2025.

同樣，我們相信，展望 2025 年，較低的利率將更有利於資產負債表的成長。

But basically, all of that is factored into our guidance for return on tangible equity for 2025 at mid-teens.

但基本上，所有這些都已納入我們對 2025 年有形股本回報率（15%左右）的指導中。

So thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Color is excellent.

顏色非常好。

Just around pass throughs, I think earlier this year, you talked about 10%. [Long Beach] is adding something like $600 million.

就傳遞而言，我想今年早些時候，您談到了 10%。 [長灘] 增加了約 6 億美元。

Okay.

好的。

So the banking NII sensitivity to 10% change in pass through rate is around $600 million, remains around $600 million.

因此，銀行 NII 對傳遞率變化 10% 的敏感度約為 6 億美元，仍維持在 6 億美元左右。

And this is based off an assumption of around $600 billion of IPCAs.

這是基於 IPCA 價值約 6000 億美元的假設。

So we can work out the math, if you want offline.

如果你想離線的話，我們可以計算一下。

That number is broadly stable.

這個數字大致穩定。

We're still working on an assumption of a 50% pass through in our banking NII sensitivity.

我們仍在研究銀行 NII 敏感性 50% 傳遞的假設。

Second, if you look at the cumulative pass throughs, we're broadly around 50% from the start of the rate hikes trend in late 2022, all the way to now, broadly around 50%.

其次，如果你看累計傳遞率，從 2022 年底升息趨勢開始到現在，我們大致在 50% 左右。

The earlier part was much lower than 50%.

早期的部分遠低於50%。

The latter part was much higher than 50%.

後者遠高於50%。

It is difficult to predict how pass throughs will work out on the rate cut scenario.

很難預測降息情況下的轉嫁將如何發揮作用。

And this is why I think 50% remains a good estimate of what it could look like noting that we don't have recent history of that.

這就是為什麼我認為 50% 仍然是一個很好的估計，因為我們沒有最近的歷史記錄。

I would point you to one thing to be mindful of is in the UK and number of other geographies, we will have to provide customer notice of at least 60 days before we pass through rate cuts.

我想向您指出需要注意的一件事，即在英國和其他一些地區，我們必須在通過降息之前至少提前 60 天向客戶發出通知。

So there will be a delay in pass throughs on the way down, and that's a 60 to 90 day on average, for instance, in the UK.

因此，在下行過程中會有延遲，例如在英國，平均延遲 60 到 90 天。

Ed Firth, KBW.

埃德·弗斯，KBW。

Hi, thanks.

你好謝謝。

And good morning, everybody.

大家早安。

Yeah, and just to echo Aman's comments and thank you, particularly to Noel, because it's been a pretty turbulent period for you being CEO.

是的，只是為了回應阿曼的評論並感謝你，特別是諾埃爾，因為對於你擔任執行長來說，這是一個相當動蕩的時期。

I think there are a number of times when if somebody said you'd be making mid-teens returns, I think I would have thought that was delusional.

我想很多時候，如果有人說你會獲得十幾歲左右的回報，我想我會認為這是妄想。

So thank you very much for that.

非常感謝您。

It benefits us all.

這對我們所有人都有好處。

My two questions were

我的兩個問題是

--

--

The first one was, could you tell me -- you probably disclosed it somewhere and I missed it, but performance-related pay, I see you assume that's going to be flat this year.

第一個是，你能告訴我嗎——你可能在某個地方披露過，但我錯過了，但與績效相關的薪酬，我看到你認為今年會持平。

Is it possible to tell us what the total quantum of that is because I guess there must be some potential that that may have to go up, particularly given the revenue performance.

是否可以告訴我們總金額是多少，因為我想一定有一些潛力可能會上升，特別是考慮到收入表現。

So that would be my first question.

這是我的第一個問題。

And then the second one is, to me, if I look at these results, I guess the standout to me was the performance in Q2 of the wealth and private banking business.

第二個是，對我來說，如果我看看這些結果，我想對我來說最突出的是財富和私人銀行業務第二季的表現。

If I look in the past, it's generally been quite seasonal in Q2, but it seems that actually it's held up pretty flat.

如果我回顧過去，第二季通常是相當季節性的，但實際上它似乎保持相當平穩。

So should we expect that?

那我們應該期待這一點嗎？

Is that like a new base level of run rate?

這就像新的運行率基準水平嗎？

Is that something we should continue into the second half now and then sort of grow on from there?

這是我們現在應該繼續到下半場然後從那裡繼續成長的事情嗎？

Or was there something about Q2, which held it up better than we might have expected.

或者第二季是否有什麼事情比我們預期的更好。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Well, well, firstly, thank you for your comments.

嗯嗯，首先謝謝你的評論。

And on your second point on wealth, I'll give a very personal comment.

關於你關於財富的第二點，我將給出一個非常個人化的評論。

You normally expect Q1 to be the seasonal high and then a bit lower in Q2 and a bit low.

您通常預計第一季將是季節性高點，然後第二季會低一些，然後再低一些。

So actually, Q2 did exceed expectations in terms of seasonality.

所以實際上，第二季度在季節性方面確實超出了預期。

It was a strong quarter.

這是一個強勁的季度。

At the moment, I can't -- we tend to be a bit on the conservative side and say, don't base a trend on a quarter or two.

目前，我不能——我們傾向於有點保守，並說，不要將趨勢建立在一兩個季度的基礎上。

But I think your assessment that actually Q2 was a strong performance is exactly where we are.

但我認為您對第二季度實際上表現強勁的評估正是我們現在的情況。

It was stronger than probably one would have expected through normal seasonality.

它比正常季節性預期的要強。

I think it is -- if I talk to the team, they were confident of a good performance.

我認為是的——如果我和團隊交談，他們對良好的表現充滿信心。

They seeing good lead indicators.

他們看到了良好的領先指標。

I mean, we've taken in in excess of $250 billion of net new invested assets just over the last two and a bit years, 2.5 years.

我的意思是，光是在過去兩年多，也就是 2.5 年裡，我們就吸收了超過 2,500 億美元的淨新投資資產。

And I think we've all got a probably -- we haven't seen this period where how will cash move from cash to invested assets as interest rates come off, and therefore, I think it is difficult to project a trend.

我認為我們都有一個可能——我們還沒有看到隨著利率下降，現金將如何從現金轉移到投資資產的時期，因此，我認為很難預測趨勢。

I think we just got to see go quarter-by-quarter.

我認為我們只能看到一個季度一個季度的進展。

The lead indicators are good.

領先指標良好。

We've invested in the business over the last few years to put us in this position.

過去幾年我們對這項業務進行了投資，使我們處於這個位置。

It was all about getting ready for lower interest rates and being in a position to take advantage of it.

這一切都是為了為較低的利率做好準備，並能夠利用它。

We invested heavily in the product lineup for our clients to make sure that if they were going to move into invested assets, they could do so with us rather than another bank.

我們為客戶的產品陣容投入了大量資金，以確保如果他們要進入投資資產，他們可以與我們而不是另一家銀行合作。

And we invested in distribution.

我們投資了分銷。

We had good distribution in Hong Kong, but we didn't have as good a distribution in other markets.

我們在香港有很好的分銷，但在其他市場卻沒有那麼好的分銷。

So we built our distribution in Mainland China, in Singapore, in India, and in the rest of the world.

因此，我們在中國大陸、新加坡、印度和世界其他地區建立了分銷網絡。

So I think it's put us in a good position to take advantage of it, but it's too early to call it a trend.

所以我認為這讓我們處於有利的位置來利用它，但現在稱其為趨勢還為時過早。

But your observations are fair observation for Q2.

但你的觀察對第二季來說是公平的觀察。

It was good and it's nice to be able to report that.

這很好，很高興能夠報告這一點。

On performance-related pay and cost, I mean, I'll let Georges cover that but we're absolutely committed to the 5%.

關於與績效相關的薪酬和成本，我的意思是，我會讓喬治承擔這一點，但我們絕對致力於 5%。

So we accrued -- we paid $3.8 billion through full year 2023 on performance-related pay.

因此，到 2023 年全年，我們累計支付了 38 億美元的績效相關薪酬。

This is disclosed in our annual reports and accounts.

這在我們的年度報告和帳目中披露。

But if you look at how we accrued for that number through the year in 2023, we actually under accrued in the first quarter 2023.

但如果你看看我們在 2023 年全年如何累積這一數字，你會發現我們實際上在 2023 年第一季的累積金額不足。

And then we topped it up at the fourth quarter to get to that total number.

然後我們在第四季度將其加滿以達到這個總數。

When you look at full year 2024, we are accruing towards a broadly similar number for the full year than for the full year '23.

當您查看 2024 年全年時，您會發現我們全年的累積數字與 23 年全年的數字大致相似。

And any decision on the performance rate pay will take place in January with the Remuneration Committee after the full year has performance has been delivered but we are accruing broadly to the same number.

關於績效工資的任何決定都將在全年績效交付後的一月份由薪酬委員會做出，但我們的累積數字大致相同。

The difference is that we're accruing more evenly.

不同之處在於我們的累積更加均勻。

So this is why you'll see a higher accrual on a year-on-year basis in the first half, and you will be seeing a lower accrual in the second half on that trajectory.

因此，這就是為什麼上半年您會看到同比應計較高，而下半年您會看到按照該軌跡應計較低。

It is -- all of this is factored in our cost guidance of limiting cost growth to around 5%.

是的，所有這些都已納入我們將成本成長限制在 5% 左右的成本指引中。

We're absolutely committed to our 5% or circa 5% cost growth guidance.

我們絕對致力於 5% 或大約 5% 的成本成長指引。

We're confident we can deliver it, and we are on track to deliver it.

我們有信心能夠實現這一目標，而且我們也有望實現這一目標。

Katherine Lei, JPMorgan.

凱瑟琳雷，摩根大通。

Hi, good morning.

早安.

Thanks for answering my questions.

謝謝回答我的問題。

I have one question.

我有一個問題。

Actually, two.

事實上，兩個。

Both related to capital.

兩者都與資本有關。

On the capital side, we saw there is a $6.4 billion of addition to our RWA.

在資本方面，我們的 RWA 增加了 64 億美元。

May I know like what is that related to?

我可以知道這跟什麼有關嗎？

I think is that something related to modeling?

我認為這與建模有關嗎？

So I would like to know like what kind of assumption changes leads to this $6.4 billion and is that one off or should we see this ongoing, I would say, additions to the RWA?

所以我想知道什麼樣的假設變化會導致這 64 億美元，這是一次性的還是我們應該看到這種持續的，我想說的是，RWA 的增加？

So this is number one.

所以這是第一。

Number two, we noticed some deterioration on asset quality on our Hong Kong CRE book.

第二，我們注意到香港商業地產帳簿上的資產品質有所惡化。

Actually, according to the disclosures, that deterioration seems quite significant as well.

事實上，根據披露的信息，這種惡化似乎也相當嚴重。

Can you explain to us what is the impact on capital because we understand that there is a limited impact on ECL charges but mainly reflected on capital.

您能否向我們解釋一下對資本的影響，因為我們知道對預期信用損失費用的影響有限，但主要反映在資本上。

What is the drag on capital?

資本的拖累是什麼？

And then also like going forward, what is your view on Hong Kong CRE, in particular for the loans which are already in stage three categories?

然後，同樣展望未來，您對香港商業地產，特別是已經處於第三階段類別的貸款有何看法？

Are you expecting that there will be recovery of loans through disposal of the collaterals or you are expecting the borrowers will eventually make up for the long.

您是否期望透過處置抵押品收回貸款，或者您期望藉款人最終會彌補長期損失。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Okay.

好的。

Thanks, Katherine.

謝謝，凱瑟琳。

Georges, do you want to pick up those points?

喬治，你想得到這些分數嗎？

Sure.

當然。

Sure, Noel.

當然，諾埃爾。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Katherine, so on the capital, so we've indicated the $6.4 billion increase in RWAs due to modeling adjustment.

凱瑟琳，關於資本，我們指出由於模型調整，RWA 增加了 64 億美元。

To be specific, we've adjusted the probability of default models for banks globally.

具體來說，我們調整了全球銀行的違約模型機率。

And the reason we adjusted this probability for default model for banks is because we wanted to factor in some of the observations and learnings from the March 2023 crisis in the way governments have supported a bank resolution that specifically to for the US and Switzerland.

我們調整銀行違約模型的機率的原因是，我們希望將 2023 年 3 月危機的一些觀察和經驗教訓考慮在內，就像政府支持專門針對美國和瑞士的銀行決議的方式一樣。

We've taken those learnings.

我們已經吸取了這些教訓。

We've baked them in our modeling, and this resulted in this additional RWA, insofar that bank models, probability of default, et cetera, are concerned.

我們已經將它們納入我們的模型中，這導致了額外的 RWA，就銀行模型、違約機率等而言。

We consider this to be done.

我們認為應該這樣做。

If you ask me, well, we continuously look at our models and from -- in a general fashion.

如果你問我，那麼，我們會不斷地審視我們的模型，並以一般的方式。

Look, the next big model update is going to be Basel 3.1 as and when Basel 3.1 becomes live in the various geographies or jurisdictions where we operate.

看，下一個重大模型更新將是 Basel 3.1，當 Basel 3.1 在我們營運的各個地區或司法管轄區生效時。

We have not indicated the impact which we do not expect to be material, but we're waiting to see some of the final rules that are still missing in a number of jurisdictions before we can call out the exact impact to the market.

我們尚未表明我們預計不會產生重大影響，但我們正在等待看到一些司法管轄區仍然缺少的一些最終規則，然後才能指出對市場的確切影響。

But we don't expect it to be material.

但我們並不期望它是實質的。

In terms of Hong Kong CRE, we've spoken earlier about the 40% that is unsecured with which we remain very comfortable.

就香港商業房地產而言，我們之前曾談到 40% 的無抵押資產，對此我們仍感到放心。

And so your question probably relate to the other 60%, which is the secured portfolio of our $36 billion exposure.

因此，您的問題可能與另外 60% 相關，即我們 360 億美元風險敞口的擔保投資組合。

So of this, about $3.2 billion are credit impaired.

因此，約 32 億美元出現信用減損。

What's happening basically is a number of -- a few of our customers basically are facing some short-term cash flow pressure challenges, and this is partly due to higher rates.

基本上發生的情況是，我們的一些客戶基本上面臨一些短期現金流壓力挑戰，部分原因是利率上升。

But the balance sheet remains strong and our level of collateralization remains strong.

但資產負債表仍然強勁，我們的抵押水平仍然強勁。

Typically for this impaired $3.2 billion portfolio, the level of collateralization on average is 55% loan to value.

通常，對於這個受損的 32 億美元投資組合，平均抵押貸款水準為貸款價值的 55%。

So this is why there is a material, if any ECL impact from de-designation to stage three.

因此，這就是為什麼從取消指定到第三階段會產生重大（如果有的話）ECL 影響。

And in terms of the capital impact, some of -- depending on which models we're using and what form of lending it is, some of the impact may manifest in RWAs, and we've seen a little bit of that in last quarter.

就資本影響而言，一些影響可能會體現在 RWA 中，具體取決於我們使用的模型和貸款形式，我們在上個季度已經看到了一些影響。

Some of it will manifest in EEL, excess expected loss, which will go straight into our CET1.

其中一些會體現在EEL中，即超額預期損失，這將直接進入我們的CET1。

We publish these numbers.

我們公佈這些數字。

But by and large, these are immaterial numbers.

但總的來說，這些都是無關緊要的數字。

And again, it's all supported by the fact that we have a very strong level of collateralization against the exposure.

同樣，這一切都得到了以下事實的支持：我們針對風險敞口擁有非常強大的抵押水平。

And as we look forward first, these customers that specifically credit impaired customers are current, remain current.

正如我們首先展望的那樣，這些客戶（特別是信用受損客戶）仍然是當前的。

We expect some of the pressure they're facing to ease as rates reduce and as economic activity in Hong Kong picks up.

我們預計，隨著利率下降和香港經濟活動回升，他們面臨的一些壓力將會緩解。

In terms of medium- to long-term outlook for the sector, we are actually positive.

就該行業的中長期前景而言，我們實際上是樂觀的。

We're confident first and the Hong Kong economy in general to rebound.

我們首先對香港經濟整體反彈充滿信心。

But in particular for the sector, we expected the sectors pressure will ease in the medium to long term.

但特別是對於該行業而言，我們預計該行業的壓力將在中長期內緩解。

And we remain confident and positive about this sector.

我們對該行業仍然充滿信心和積極態度。

Gurpreet Singh Sahi, Goldman Sachs.

古普雷特·辛格·薩希，高盛。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Can you guys hear me?

你們聽得到我說話嗎？

Yes, very good.

是的，很好。

Okay.

好的。

Good morning, Noel, first of all, George congrats and Noel congratulations for a new path wherever you choose to be.

早安，諾埃爾，首先，恭喜喬治，也祝賀諾埃爾，無論你選擇去哪裡，都走上了一條新的道路。

Thank you for the helpful disclosures on the hedge, et cetera.

感謝您對對沖等方面的有益披露。

I have a question regarding two questions, which are pretty much linked regarding falling rates and how does the management see it?

我有兩個問題，這兩個問題與利率下降密切相關，管理階層對此有何看法？

First of all, the wealth income, it's an odd cycle with wealth income and AUM growth rates being elevated as interest rates are high.

首先是財富收入，這是一個奇怪的周期，財富收入和AUM成長率隨著利率的高而增加。

So when they do fall, do we have any precedent as to whether there will be an impact on the wealth income from falling rates or we don't get that much benefit from income.

因此，當利率確實下降時，我們是否有先例表明利率下降是否會對財富收入產生影響，或者我們不會從收入中獲得那麼多好處。

We see right now that a lot of Mainland Chinese money is also coming out and parking in Hong Kong.

我們現在看到中國大陸的大量資金也流出並停放在香港。

So that's the first part of the question.

這是問題的第一部分。

The second is lending growth.

二是貸款成長。

We have targets for mid-single digit.

我們的目標是中個位數。

But when we think about modeling banking NII, we have to look at average interest-earning assets.

但當我們考慮對銀行 NII 進行建模時，我們必須考慮平均生息資產。

So I'm wondering we have lots of liquidity on the balance sheet.

所以我想知道我們的資產負債表上有大量的流動性。

If rates do fall, and then some of these depositors don't feel incentivized.

如果利率確實下降，那麼其中一些儲戶就不會感到受到激勵。

Do we get overall deposit growth not so strong, which in turn leads to average interest-earning assets not growing and hence, we should not be modeling in average interest earning assets growth at mid-single digits.

我們是否會發現整體存款成長不那麼強勁，進而導致平均生息資產不成長，因此，我們不應該以中等個位數的平均生息資產成長為模型。

So help us think of that.

所以請幫助我們思考一下。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

Okay.

好的。

I think George will take both of those.

我認為喬治會接受這兩個。

Very good.

非常好。

Thanks, Noel.

謝謝，諾埃爾。

Gurpreet, so first wealth income, the way we reported it essentially is fees and other income.

Gurpreet，首先是財富收入，我們報告的方式本質上是費用和其他收入。

So the slide I have there for wealth, that's particularly the fees part, which is fees and on asset under management or on either for insurance in particular, relate to a new business CSM.

因此，我在財富方面的幻燈片，特別是費用部分，即管理資產或保險的費用和費用，特別是與新業務 CSM 相關的費用。

So the impact if you want on rates is more about transition of customers from deposits into AUMs.

因此，如果你想對利率產生影響，更多的是客戶從存款轉向資產管理規模的轉變。

So this has been happening.

所以這種情況一直在發生。

We're seeing some of our deposits move into net new invested assets and transferring if you want to AUMs in our wealth proposition.

我們看到我們的一些存款轉移到淨新投資資產中，如果您想在我們的財富主張中轉移到資產管理規模，則可以轉移。

It is likely on a trend basis that when rates come down and deposit and the earnings you can make on deposits reduce, that customer may shift some of it into AUMs through our, through will be visible now in the net new invested assets proposition, and then we will be able to service them in the fee space.

從趨勢上看，當利率下降、存款和存款收益減少時，客戶可能會透過我們的資產管理規模將其中一部分轉移到資產管理規模中，現在將在淨新投資資產主張中可見，並且那麼我們將能夠在收費領域為他們提供服務。

So yes, there is a component where we do expect more wealth activity to take place as we see deposits being less remunerative.

所以，是的，我們確實預期會有更多的財富活動發生，因為我們看到存款的報酬率較低。

But this is more on a broad trend basis, not a direct linkage.

但這更多是基於廣泛的趨勢基礎，而不是直接的聯繫。

And we are also benefiting from the structural growth of wealth in particularly in Asia, where we believe the underlying market is growing at very high single digit, if not double digit percent over the next five years.

我們也受惠於財富的結構性成長，尤其是亞洲的財富結構性成長，我們相信未來五年潛在市場的成長速度即使不是兩位數，也將達到非常高的個位數百分比。

And on top of that underlying growth, which we're benefiting from, we are taking market share because of our additional investment in the space.

除了我們從中受益的潛在成長之外，我們還由於對該領域的額外投資而獲得了市場份額。

So this is a this is definitely a platform that can benefit from number of trends that will support the momentum.

因此，這絕對是一個可以從支持這一勢頭的眾多趨勢中受益的平台。

On your second point, it's a very good point because we talk about balance sheet growth and loan growth, but we have also strong dependence for our bank NNI to deposit growth, which constitute the underlying for our average interest-earning assets.

關於你的第二點，這是一個非常好的觀點，因為我們談論資產負債表增長和貸款增長，但我們的銀行NNI也對存款增長有很強的依賴性，這構成了我們平均生息資產的基礎。

So we've seen this quarter deposit growing 2%.

所以我們看到本季存款成長了 2%。

I caution you not to annualize the 2% because some of it is seasonal, some of it is one-off, but we have a fantastic deposit franchise.

我提醒您不要將 2% 的利率年化，因為有些是季節性的，有些是一次性的，但我們擁有出色的存款特許經營權。

I mean, you know us everywhere we operate, we have a very strong balance sheet that's very appealing, and we have a very strong proposition in deposits and transaction banking for both wholesale and retail, which mean that we will continuously look to capture deposits.

我的意思是，您在我們經營的任何地方都認識我們，我們擁有非常強大的資產負債表，非常有吸引力，而且我們在批發和零售的存款和交易銀行業務方面擁有非常強大的主張，這意味著我們將不斷尋求吸收存款。

We continue winning Global Payment Solutions mandates in the wholesale space.

我們繼續贏得批發領域的全球支付解決方案授權。

We continue being attractive for retail customers, and we just shared, Noel shared 345,000 new customers joining our Hong Kong business alone.

我們繼續對零售客戶有吸引力，我們剛剛分享了，Noel 分享的僅香港業務就有 345,000 名新客戶。

This is, in the UK, in 2023, we added 1 million new customers.

這是，在英國，2023年，我們增加了100萬個新客戶。

So therefore, we do continue seeing a good momentum, underlying momentum to grow our deposits with this very attractive deposit franchise of ours.

因此，我們確實繼續看到良好的勢頭，透過我們這個非常有吸引力的存款專營權來增加我們的存款的潛在動力。

I think I'd reinforce that and add another comment.

我想我會強調這一點並添加另一條評論。

The trick for us in the past, we were very good as a retail bank.

過去我們的秘訣是，我們作為一家零售銀行非常出色。

We were very good as a corporate bank.

作為一家企業銀行，我們非常出色。

But when customers, whether they were retail customers or corporate customers wanting to invest in alternative asset classes, other than cash, they tended to go to other banks because our product range and our distribution wasn't strong enough.

但是，當客戶，無論是零售客戶還是企業客戶想要投資現金以外的另類資產類別時，他們往往會去其他銀行，因為我們的產品範圍和分銷不夠強大。

We deliberately set out to invest in our products and distribution capability for wealth.

我們有意投資我們的產品和財富分配能力。

So that, that cash, if you did move, it moved within the bank, not outside the bank.

因此，如果你確實轉移了現金，它會在銀行內轉移，而不是在銀行外轉移。

One of the byproduct benefits is if you've got a good wealth proposition, you also attract the cash.

副產品的好處之一是，如果你有良好的財富主張，你也會吸引現金。

You keep the cash in the bank as well.

您也將現金存入銀行。

They go hand-in-hand.

他們齊頭並進。

And so I think we're in a very different position today in offering wealth propositions to clients.

因此，我認為我們今天在向客戶提供財富建議方面處於非常不同的地位。

And what we've done is deliberately tried to diversify the revenue stream.

我們所做的就是刻意嘗試使收入來源多元。

So it's less dependent on purely corporate banking and retail banking.

因此，它較少依賴純粹的企業銀行業務和零售銀行業務。

And there is a continuum from retail and corporate banking into bank and the individuals and the entrepreneurs in their personal capacity and doing their wealth management in their personal capacity.

從零售和企業銀行業務到銀行、個人和企業家以個人身分進行財富管理，這是一個連續體。

And that's, I think the exciting trend for the future.

我認為這就是未來令人興奮的趨勢。

And I think that's where why we believe that we're well positioned to deliver mid-teens ROTE next year because we have that diversity and that continuum of offerings.

我認為這就是為什麼我們相信明年我們有能力提供青少年 ROTE 課程，因為我們擁有多樣性和連續性的產品。

So, I just just want to say that's not a by chance strategy.

所以，我只是想說這不是一個偶然的策略。

That was a very deliberate strategy to keep both the cash in the bank and the invested assets in the bank.

這是一個非常深思熟慮的策略，既將現金存入銀行，又將投資資產存入銀行。

Thank you.

謝謝。

That ends today's Q&A.

今天的問答到此結束。

So I will now hand back to Noel for closing remarks.

現在我將請諾埃爾發表結束語。

Well, thank you, Louise, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today.

好吧，謝謝你，路易絲，也謝謝大家今天加入我們。

Before we close, I'd like to thank you for your questions and for all the discussions we've had over the last five years.

在結束之前，我要感謝您提出的問題以及我們在過去五年中進行的所有討論。

I've always enjoyed representing my colleagues when we announce our results.

當我們宣布結果時，我一直很高興能代表我的同事。

And I'm really pleased that the strong first half numbers announced today demonstrate the improved financial performance that our strategy execution has driven.

我真的很高興今天公佈的上半年強勁數據表明我們的策略執行推動了財務業績的改善。

It's been over 15 years since the group has generated returns at the current levels, and our new guidance underlines that we expect to be able to sustain it through this year and in 2025.

該集團已經超過 15 年沒有產生目前水準的回報，我們的新指引強調，我們預計能夠在今年和 2025 年維持這一回報。

I wish Georges, the team and all of you the very best and enjoy the rest of the day.

我祝福喬治、他的團隊以及你們所有人一切順利，並享受這一天剩下的時間。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Ladies and gentlemen, for joining today's webinar.

女士們先生們，歡迎參加今天的網路研討會。

You may now disconnect your lines.

現在您可以斷開線路。