滙豐控股 (HSBC) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Welcome, ladies and gentlemen to the analyst and investor webinar on the 3Q 2024 results for HSBC Holdings plc. For your information, this webinar is being recorded. I will now hand over to Georges Elhedery, Group Chief Executive.

女士們、先生們，歡迎參加關於匯豐控股有限公司 2024 年第三季業績的分析師和投資者網路研討會。為了供您參考，我們正在錄製本次網路研討會。現在我將把工作交給集團執行長 Georges Elhedery。

Thank you, Louise. Hello everyone. Thank you for joining today. I'm here with John Bingham, our group financial controller, who is acting as Interim Group Chief Financial Officer. We delivered another good quarter which shows that our strategy is working and we have a strong platform for growth. I am committed to building on that.

謝謝你，路易絲。大家好。感謝您今天加入。我和我們的集團財務總監 John Bingham 一起來到這裡，他擔任臨時集團財務長。我們又交付了一個良好的季度，這表明我們的策略正在發揮作用，並且我們擁有強大的成長平台。我致力於在此基礎上再接再厲。

Before John takes you through the third quarter numbers, I would like to make a few comments. We made several announcements last week. First Pam Kaur will take over as Group Chief Financial Officer with effect from January 1.

在約翰向您介紹第三季的數據之前，我想發表一些評論。上週我們發布了幾項公告。首先，Pam Kaur 將從 1 月 1 日起接任集團財務長。

Pam is an exceptional leader who joined HSBC in 2013 as Group Head of Audit and is currently our Group Chief Risk and Compliance Officer. With almost 40 years’ experience in the financial sector, she brings a global perspective to the strategic challenges and opportunities we face today. I look forward to partnering with her for the next stage of the bank's growth and development. I would also like to thank John for his outstanding support during the interim period.

Pam 是一位傑出的領導者，於 2013 年加入匯豐銀行，擔任集團審計主管，目前擔任集團首席風險與合規官。她在金融領域擁有近 40 年的經驗，為我們今天面臨的策略挑戰和機會帶來了全球視野。我期待與她合作，共同推動銀行下一階段的成長與發展。我還要感謝約翰在過渡期間給予的傑出支持。

Second, we announced a reorganization to simplify and streamline the group. We are currently organized around three businesses in five regions. From the January 1, we will operate through four businesses, Hong kong and the UK serving personal banking and commercial banking customers in our two home markets, corporate institutional banking and international wealth and premier banking.

其次，我們宣布進行重組，以簡化和精簡集團。我們目前圍繞著五個地區的三個業務進行組織。從 1 月 1 日起，我們將透過香港和英國四家業務部門開展業務，為我們兩個本土市場的個人銀行和商業銀行客戶提供服務，即企業機構銀行業務以及國際財富和高級銀行業務。

We will also streamline our geographic governance structures, reducing them from five regions to two further enhancing our ability to serve our customers’ needs throughout our global network. Our current group executive committee of 18 members will be replaced by a new group operating committee with 12 members.

我們還將簡化地理治理結構，將其從五個區域減少到兩個，進一步增強我們透過全球網路滿足客戶需求的能力。我們目前由 18 名成員組成的集團執行委員會將由 12 名成員組成的新集團營運委員會取代。

The analysis we have done so far demonstrates that the reorganization will result in net cost savings with a relatively short payback period on any upfront costs. We will share these details with you at our full year results in February as part of a wider business update.

我們迄今為止所做的分析表明，重組將帶來淨成本節省，並且任何前期成本的投資回收期相對較短。作為更廣泛的業務更新的一部分，我們將在二月份的全年業績中與您分享這些詳細資訊。

And third, turning to the external environment. I welcome the clarity provided by the UK government on its prudential rules. The pure A second near final policy statement and rules on the implementation of Basel 3.1 bring an end to years of uncertainty and will help the banking sector to support growth in the UK.

第三，轉向外在環境。我歡迎英國政府對其審慎規則的明確規定。關於巴塞爾 3.1 實施的第二次接近最終的政策聲明和規則結束了多年的不確定性，並將幫助銀行業支持英國的成長。

Similarly, I am encouraged by the recent policy measures in mainland China and in Hong Kong. I am confident that the monetary stimulus announced last month and potential further fiscal and other measures will help to stabilize key sectors and strengthen mainland China's economy. Meanwhile, Hong Kong's easing of macro prudential constraints is proportionate and timely, and we expect these measures to have a positive impact on the Hong Kong economy.

同樣，我對中國大陸和香港最近的政策措施感到鼓舞。我相信上個月宣布的貨幣刺激措施以及潛在的進一步財政和其他措施將有助於穩定關鍵產業並增強中國大陸的經濟。同時，香港放鬆宏觀審慎約束是適度且及時的，我們預期這些措施將對香港經濟產生正面影響。

With that, John will take you through the Q3 numbers. John.

接下來，約翰將帶您了解第三季的數據。約翰.

Thanks, George. In summary, we had another good quarter. Profit Before Tax of $8.5 billion was up $0.9 billion or 11% on the third quarter of last year on a constant currency basis. This brings our annualized return on tangible equity for the first nine months of the year to 19.3% or 16.7% excluding notable items.

謝謝，喬治。總而言之，我們又度過了一個美好的季度。以固定匯率計算，稅前利潤為 85 億美元，較去年第三季成長 9 億美元，即 11%。這使得我們今年前 9 個月的有形股本年化報酬率達到 19.3% 或 16.7%（不包括重要項目）。

Revenue of $17 billion was up $1.1 billion on last year's third quarter and up $0.3 billion on the second quarter this year underlying the good momentum within the business. We've announced today, a further $4.8 billion of distributions consisting of a third interim dividend of $0.10 per share and a new share buyback of up to $3 billion.

營收為 170 億美元，比去年第三季增加 11 億美元，比今年第二季增加 3 億美元，這是業務良好勢頭的基礎。今天，我們宣布進一步派發 48 億美元，其中包括每股 0.10 美元的第三次中期股息和高達 30 億美元的新股回購。

We intend to complete this buyback during the four month period before our full year results announcement in February. Last week, we also completed the share buyback announcement at the half year results in July. We've now repurchased 9% of our share count since the start of last year.

我們打算在二月公佈全年業績之前的四個月內完成此次回購。上週，我們也在7月的半年業績中完成了股票回購公告。自去年初以來，我們現已回購了 9% 的股份。

As you can see on the next slide, Strategic transactions, principally the disposal of Canada in the first quarter were a small impact on the year on year revenue and profit growth. Excluding this impact of these transactions Profit Before Tax excluding notable items was up 13% on the third quarter of last year.

正如您在下一張幻燈片中看到的，策略交易，主要是第一季出售加拿大業務，對同比收入和利潤增長產生了微小影響。排除這些交易的影響，不包括重要項目的稅前利潤比去年第三季增加了 13%。

Revenue of $17 billion was up $1.1 billion on the third quarter of last year, driven by a $1.6 billion increase in fee and other income. This included [$0.7 billion] increase in Wholesale Transaction Banking and Wealth. The remaining $1 billion increase primarily reflected strong performance in equities and global debt markets with global banking and markets and adverse items in the third quarter of last year that did not repeat including $0.3 billion of treasury disposal losses and other notable items.

由於費用和其他收入增加了 16 億美元，收入為 170 億美元，比去年第三季增加了 11 億美元。其中包括批發交易銀行業務和財富的成長[7億美元]。其餘 10 億美元的成長主要反映了股票和全球債務市場的強勁表現，以及全球銀行業和市場以及去年第三季未重複的不利項目，包括 3 億美元的財務處置損失和其他值得注意的項目。

Banking NII of $10.6 billion was down $0.3 billion on the second quarter on a reported FX basis, primarily due to a loss arising from the early redemption of legacy securities. Excluding this, the banking NII run rate was stable on the previous quarter.

以報告的匯率計算，第二季銀行業 NII 為 106 億美元，下降了 3 億美元，主要是因為提前贖回遺留證券造成的損失。若剔除此因素，銀行業NII運作率較上季維持穩定。

Our 2025 -- 2024 banking NII guidance is unchanged at around $43 billion. Our guidance includes the impact of the $0.3 billion early redemption loss taken this quarter. It also assumes a $1 billion contribution from Argentina this year which is what we reported in 2023.

我們的 2025 年至 2024 年銀行業 NII 指引維持在 430 億美元左右不變。我們的指引包括本季 3 億美元提前贖回損失的影響。它還假設阿根廷今年捐款 10 億美元，正如我們在 2023 年報告的那樣。

Argentina has contributed $1.2 billion to banking NII in the year-to-date. But the volatility created by hyperinflation accounting makes that number very difficult to forecast from quarter to quarter. Accordingly, I would encourage you to think of our guidance as being around $42 billion excluding Argentina.

今年迄今為止，阿根廷已向銀行業 NII 貢獻了 12 億美元。但惡性通貨膨脹會計造成的波動使得這個數字很難按季度進行預測。因此，我鼓勵您認為我們的指導值約為 420 億美元（不包括阿根廷）。

Turning to fee and other income. Wholesale Transaction Banking was up 7% on last year's third quarter. The key driver is Global Foreign Exchange which grew 12% benefiting from increased client activity. Higher volumes also contributed to growth in both global trade solutions and global payment solutions. [Wealth], was up 32% on the third quarter last year.

轉向費用和其他收入。批發交易銀行業務比去年第三季成長了 7%。主要推動力是全球外匯交易，受益於客戶活動的增加，該交易增加了 12%。銷售量的增加也促進了全球貿易解決方案和全球支付解決方案的成長。 [財富]比去年第三季成長了32%。

It was our third consecutive quarter of double digit growth in Wealth as our continued investments in this business and the importance of Hong Kong as a Global Wealth Hub have enabled us to capitalize on a favorable operating environment.

這是我們的財富連續第三個季度實現兩位數增長，因為我們對該業務的持續投資以及香港作為全球財富中心的重要性使我們能夠利用有利的經營環境。

There was double digit [Wealth] -- growth in all wealth products but life insurance was the biggest driver. About half of the growth in life insurance was from the non-repetition of a charge we took in Q3 last year. Excluding that, life insurance still grew well into double digits. Mainly because a higher CSM balance drove an increase in CSM release.

所有財富產品都有兩位數的成長，但人壽保險是最大的推動力。人壽保險成長的大約一半來自我們去年第三季不再重複收取的費用。排除這一點，人壽保險仍以兩位數成長。主要是因為CSM餘額的增加帶動了CSM釋放量的增加。

The CSM balance is a store of value. All else remaining equal growth in the balance means growth in future earnings. And our CS M balance has continued to grow. In the first three quarters of this year, we've generated more than $2 billion of new business CSM. This has driven our CSM balance to $13.2 billion, a 22% increase since last year's third quarter, creating a foundation for future revenue growth.

CSM 餘額是一種價值儲存手段。餘額中其他所有因素保持同等增長意味著未來收益的增長。我們的 CS M 餘額也持續成長。今年前三季度，我們創造了超過 20 億美元的新業務 CSM。這使得我們的 CSM 餘額達到 132 億美元，自去年第三季以來成長了 22%，為未來的營收成長奠定了基礎。

Hong Kong continued to benefit from inflows of international customers. There were 243,000 new to bank customers in the third quarter versus an average of just over 170,000 per quarter in the first half. Net new invested assets were $26 billion in the quarter, $11 billion of which were in Asia.

香港繼續受益於國際客戶的流入。第三季銀行新客戶數為 243,000 人，而上半年平均每季僅超過 17 萬人。本季新增淨投資資產為 260 億美元，其中 110 億美元位於亞洲。

On credit, you'll recall that our second quarter had a low ECL charge due to recoveries and other items. The third quarter, ECL charge was $1 billion or 40 basis points of average loans. The wholesale ECL charge was $0.6 billion driven by $0.4 billion in Hong Kong, of which $0.1 billion related to Hong Kong commercial real estate. Whilst the personal charge was $0.4 billion. This brings our annualized ECL charge to 28 basis points of average loans for the year-to-date which is broadly in line with our 30 basis points to 40 basis points guidance for the full year.

就信用而言，您會記得，由於回收和其他項目，我們第二季的 ECL 費用較低。第三季度，ECL 費用為 10 億美元，即平均貸款的 40 個基點。批發預期信用損失費用為 6 億美元，主要由香港的 4 億美元推動，其中 1 億美元與香港商業房地產相關。而個人費用為4億美元。這使得我們的年化預期信用損失費用達到年初至今平均貸款的 28 個基點，這與我們全年 30 個基點至 40 個基點的指導大體一致。

Next on costs. Costs were up 6% in the first nine months of the year on a target [basis] which was 1% lower than for the first half. As we explained in the previous quarter, the phasing of performance related pay and the additional levies from the end of last year will give us a tailwind heading into the fourth quarter.

接下來是成本。今年前 9 個月的成本按目標增加 6%，比上半年下降 1%。正如我們在上一季所解釋的那樣，從去年年底開始分階段實施的績效相關薪酬和額外徵稅將為我們進入第四季度帶來利好。

We're on track to meet our target of around 5% cost growth for 2024 on a target basis and remain committed to cost discipline. On lending and deposits, loan balances were stable in the third quarter, deposits were up 1% driven by a $16 billion increase in Hong Kong WPB.

我們預計將實現 2024 年成本成長 5% 左右的目標，並持續致力於成本控制。貸款和存款方面，第三季貸款結餘穩定，存款成長1%，受香港WPB增加160億美元帶動。

This reflected short term flows between invested assets and deposits and had cautionary against annualizing that number. Term deposits were 39% of total Hong Kong deposits unchanged since the second quarter.

這反映了投資資產和存款之間的短期流動，並對將該數字進行年度化持謹慎態度。自第二季以來，定期存款佔香港存款總額的39%維持不變。

Next, our CET1 ratio was 15.2% up 20 basis points on the second quarter, a strong organic capital generation was partly offset by distributions. CET1 grew $3.1 billion during the quarter on a constant currency basis. This growth included $2.9 billion of other movements mainly gains in the market value of securities classified as held to collect and sell, which are fair value through other comprehensive income. RWAS grew by $14 billion on a constant currency basis, mainly due to broader balance sheet growth.

接下來，我們的 CET1 比率為 15.2%，比第二季度上升 20 個基點，強勁的有機資本產生部分被分配所抵消。以固定匯率計算，CET1 在本季成長了 31 億美元。這一增長包括 29 億美元的其他變動，主要是分類為持有以收集和出售的證券的市場價值收益，這些收益透過其他綜合收益計入公允價值。以固定匯率計算，RWAS 成長了 140 億美元，主要是由於更廣泛的資產負債表成長。

Finally, I'd like to point out a number of upcoming events which will help you with your modeling. First, we expect the buyback we announced today to have an impact of around 0.4 percentage points on our CET1 ratio in the fourth quarter. It remains our intention to return excess capital to shareholders through a rolling series of share buybacks.

最後，我想指出一些即將舉辦的活動，這些活動將有助於您的建模。首先，我們預計今天宣布的回購將對我們第四季的 CET1 比率產生約 0.4 個百分點的影響。我們仍然打算透過一系列滾動股票回購將多餘的資本返還給股東。

Secondly, we expect to complete the sale of HSBC Argentina in the fourth quarter. As a reminder, around $5.1 billion of historical foreign exchange translation and other reserve losses will be recycled to the income statement on completion.

其次，我們預計第四季將完成匯豐阿根廷的出售。需要提醒的是，約 51 億美元的歷史外匯折算和其他儲備損失將在完成後轉入損益表。

This has already been recognized in capital and there will be no incremental impact on CET1 [TNAV] or distributions. These losses will also be excluded from our dividend calculation. We expect the completion of the sale to reduce RWAS by around $8 billion equivalent to around 0.1 percentage points of CET1.

這已在資本中得到認可，並且不會對 CET1 [TNAV] 或分配產生增量影響。這些損失也將不包括在我們的股息計算中。我們預計出售完成後將減少 RWAS 約 80 億美元，相當於 CET1 約 0.1 個百分點。

Third, we intend to begin to actively market our $8 billion legacy French home loan portfolio during the fourth quarter. We expect to reclassify this portfolio as held to collect and sell in the first quarter next year leading to a recognition of an estimated $1 billion pre-tax loss equivalent to around 0.1% points of CT1.

第三，我們打算在第四季開始積極行銷我們 80 億美元的法國傳統房屋貸款組合。我們預計明年第一季將該投資組合重新分類為持有以收集和出售，從而確認估計 10 億美元的稅前損失，相當於 CT1 的 0.1% 左右。

Finally, the PRA recently published near final rules on Basel 3.1. These are incrementally better than we previously expected. We continue to expect them to have an immaterial impact on our CET1 ratio upon implementation.

最後，PRA 最近發布了巴塞爾 3.1 即將最終的規則。這些都比我們之前的預期好。我們仍然預期它們在實施後會對我們的 CET1 比率產生非實質影響。

To conclude, our guidance remains unchanged. Namely, a mid-10s return on tangible equity excluding notable items for 2024 and 2025. Banking NII of around $43 billion in 2024, ECLs for the full year within our normal medium term planning range of 30 basis points to 40 basis points, cost growth, are around 5% for 2024 on a target basis and mid-single digit loan growth over the medium term.

總而言之，我們的指導意見保持不變。也就是說，排除2024 年和2025 年的顯著項目，有形股本回報率為10 左右。至40 個基點，成本成長，2024 年的目標為 5% 左右，中期貸款成長為中個位數。

With that Louise, can we hand over to Q&A?

有了路易絲，我們可以把任務交給問答環節嗎？

Thank you, John. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝你，約翰。 （操作員說明）

Andrew Coombs, Citigroup.

安德魯庫姆斯，花旗集團。

Good morning, and good afternoon those in Hong Kong. Two questions, please. One firstly, just on the re-organ strategy, a very simple question given the new structure. Where does that leave Mexico, to any thoughts on Mexico would be appreciated.

香港的朋友們早安，下午好。請教兩個問題。首先，關於重組策略，考慮到新的結構，這是一個非常簡單的問題。如果有任何關於墨西哥的想法，我們將不勝感激。

And secondly, on the financials themselves. On that non NII strength where fees and other income are up 32% year on year. And you've highlighted, you've now had three consecutive quarters of double digit growth.

其次，關於財務本身。在非 NII 優勢上，費用和其他收入年增 32%。您已經強調，您現在已經連續三個季度實現兩位數成長。

Previously, if I go back to your Investor day in 2023, you talked about high single digit growth for Asian wealth specifically. You're clearly running well ahead of that and consistently running well ahead of that. So to what extent do you think we can extrapolate that double digit growth into future quarters in next year? Thank you.

此前，如果我回到 2023 年的投資者日，您特別談到了亞洲財富的高個位數成長。顯然，你已經遠遠領先於這一點，並且始終領先於這一點。那麼您認為我們可以在多大程度上將兩位數的成長推斷到明年的未來幾季？謝謝。

Thank you, Andrew. I'm going to take your first question about Mexico and John will address the second one. So we have -- Andrew, we have a good market position in Mexico. We have a good performance in Mexico. Our wholesale business in Mexico is in a particular strength in our global network of connectivity. It's very strongly connected with our North American business. It's equally very strongly connected with our Asia Pacific business and therefore is a key strategic anchor stone for our customers.

謝謝你，安德魯。我將回答你關於墨西哥的第一個問題，約翰將回答第二個問題。所以我們——安德魯，我們在墨西哥擁有良好的市場地位。我們在墨西哥有很好的表現。我們在墨西哥的批發業務在我們的全球連接網絡中具有特殊的優勢。它與我們的北美業務密切相關。它與我們的亞太業務同樣緊密相連，因此是我們客戶的關鍵策略基石。

Our retail business in Mexico will form part of the new business segment of international wealth and personal banking. As you know, all our personal banking businesses outside the Hong Kong and UK, our two home markets will be part of the International Wealth and Personal Banking and Premier Banking Business which will be focused on growing the affluent segment in the market and creating a strategic differentiation for us in the market where we operate in the personal banking space outside the home markets. John will take the second question.

我們在墨西哥的零售業務將成為國際財富和個人銀行業務新業務的一部分。如您所知，我們在香港和英國以外的所有個人銀行業務，我們的兩個本土市場都將成為國際財富和個人銀行業務以及高級銀行業務的一部分，該業務將專注於發展市場中的富裕群體並創建策略我們在本土市場以外的個人銀行領域開展業務，從而在市場上實現差異化。約翰將回答第二個問題。

Andrew. As you know, we've been investing in our Wealth capabilities for some time. Wealth was up 32% year on year in third quarter and 20% year on year for the nine months. That growth was particularly driven in Asia where we see a favorable operating environment. But we are seeing broad based growth across the segments. That's supported by strong customer growth and growth in net new invested assets. So we have guided previously to high single digit growth. I think it's fair that we may well outperform that in the short term.

安德魯.如您所知，一段時間以來我們一直在投資我們的財富能力。第三季財富年增32%，前九個月財富年增20%。這種成長尤其受到亞洲的推動，我們看到亞洲擁有有利的營運環境。但我們看到各個細分市場都有廣泛的成長。這是由強勁的客戶成長和新投資資產淨成長的支持。因此，我們之前指導了高個位數成長。我認為我們在短期內的表現很可能會超越，這是公平的。

Thank you, Andrew.

謝謝你，安德魯。

Aman Rakkar, Barclays.

阿曼拉卡，巴克萊銀行。

Good morning, and good afternoon. Thanks very much for the presentation and the questions. Yeah, I had a question on -- one on restructuring, one on the interest income, please. Just trying to scope the degree of ambition that you might have around restructuring. It looks like efforts to restructure the business are focused on delivering net cost saves. You're clearly doing very well on revenues at the moment.

早安，下午好。非常感謝您的介紹與提問。是的，我有一個關於重組的問題，一個關於利息收入的問題。只是想確定一下您在重組方面可能抱有的雄心勃勃的程度。看起來業務重組的重點是實現淨成本節省。顯然，您目前的收入狀況非常好。

Fee businesses are presumably a source of near term upside to market expectations, but I think the outlook is volatile. A lot of these things are outside of your area of control. So what is the scale of the ambition around what you'd be looking to achieve on things like costs? And indeed, RWAs as you try and kind of future proof the medium term return on tangible equity outlook.

收費業務可能是近期市場預期上行的一個來源，但我認為前景不穩定。其中很多事情都超出了您的控制範圍。那麼，您希望在成本等方面實現的目標有多大？事實上，當你嘗試並在未來證明有形股票前景的中期回報時，風險加權資產。

And then I had a second question on net interest income. So I think the -- I'm taking the kind of banking NII guide at face value and trying to nix out Argentina. I think it's implying a kind of annualized run rate of around [41.5 billion] at the fourth quarter.

然後我有第二個問題關於淨利息收入。所以我認為——我只是從表面上看銀行業國家資訊基礎設施指南，並試圖將阿根廷排除在外。我認為這意味著第四季度的年化運行率約為 [415 億]。

As a jumping off point into '25, maybe a bit of a low value question but interested if you were able to at this stage, just to comment on banking net interest income as per consensus in '25 I think the street's at around $41 billion. So versus that $41.5 billion not looking for too much attrition from here, it'd be great to get if you're not willing to put a number on it. But how you see the moving parts are, are there, please? Thank you very much.

作為進入 25 年的起點，也許是一個有點低價值的問題，但如果您能夠在這個階段，只是按照 25 年的共識評論銀行淨利息收入，我認為這條街的淨利息收入約為 410 億美元。因此，相對於 415 億美元不希望從這裡產生太多消耗而言，如果您不願意給出具體數字，那麼獲得它會很棒。但是您如何看待活動部件，有嗎？非常感謝。

Thank you, Aman for the two questions. Again, I'm going to address your first question on the reorganization and John can take us through the NII elements. So on the primary reason for the reorganization is to create a simpler, more dynamic, more agile, leaner bank. It's really to allow us to empower our frontline staff and make it faster to make decisions and ultimately serve our customers better. That's the primary reason.

謝謝阿曼提出的兩個問題。我將再次回答您關於重組的第一個問題，約翰可以帶我們了解 NII 要素。因此，重組的主要原因是創造一個更簡單、更有活力、更敏捷、更精簡的銀行。這實際上是為了讓我們能夠賦予第一線員工權力，讓他們更快地做出決策，並最終更好地為我們的客戶服務。這是主要原因。

Now, as a result of simpler, leaner, more efficient bank, there will be cost saves. The costs take out will be essential in the form of severance or related costs. It will be affecting senior roles that will be deduplicated or the reduction of the number of senior roles will drive this.

現在，由於銀行更簡單、更精簡、更有高效，成本將會節省。支出的費用將以遣散費或相關費用的形式必不可少。它將影響將要進行重複資料刪除的高級角色，或者高級角色數量的減少將推動這一點。

We will be giving you those details about the figures, about the upfront costs as well as the benefits realization in the full year results in February. What I can say is number one, the benefits will exceed the upfront costs and the payback is going to happen in a short time frame thereafter.

我們將在二月份的全年業績中向您提供有關數據、前期成本以及收益實現的詳細資訊。我能說的是第一，收益將超過前期成本，並且投資回報將在之後的短時間內發生。

And then the second point to share with you is that we remain fully committed to cost discipline. I've been sharing this in my days as Group CFO. I carry on this mission of being fully committed to cost discipline and this is now embedded in the firm as you have seen from our Q3 results. For 2024, we remain on track to deliver on our cost target. We are committed to it and we are confident we will be able to achieve it.

與您分享的第二點是，我們仍然完全致力於成本控制。我在擔任集團財務長期間一直在分享這一點。我肩負著完全致力於成本紀律的使命，這現在已融入公司，正如您從我們第三季的業績中看到的那樣。 2024 年，我們仍有望實現成本目標。我們致力於實現這一目標，並且有信心能夠實現這一目標。

So on banking, thanks for the question Aman. I might be forgiven giving you a slightly longer answer to this. So if we start on 2024, we've reiterate our guidance on '24 of Banking NII of around $43 billion but encourage you to think about that as $42 billion ex Argentina.

關於銀行業務，謝謝阿曼的提問。我可能會原諒你對此問題給出一個稍微長一點的答案。因此，如果我們從 2024 年開始，我們會重申我們對 24 年銀行業 NII 約 430 億美元的指導，但鼓勵您將其視為 420 億美元（不包括阿根廷）。

In total, we've printed $31.6 billion for the nine months to date. And we think the Q3 run rate of $10.6 billion is a pretty clean run rate for you to think about modeling 2025. We don't provide guidance at this stage on '25 Banking NII guidance. But if you take that clean run rate of the $10.6 billion, which agrees about $42 billion, we have disposed of Argentina. So therefore, we then think of the building blocks for you to model this along four factors.

迄今為止的 9 個月裡，我們總共印了 316 億美元。我們認為 106 億美元的第三季運行率對於您考慮 2025 年建模來說是一個相當乾淨的運行率。但如果你考慮到 106 億美元的淨運行率（相當於 420 億美元），我們就已經處置掉了阿根廷。因此，我們會考慮建立模組，以便您根據四個因素對此進行建模。

Firstly, rates, the reduction in rates implied in markets will be clearly a headwind. The cuts during the third quarter, given the timing of their, then they had a relatively modest impact on the third quarter's results. But we'd encourage you to use our Banking NII sensitivity against market implied rates to generate that component.

首先，利率，市場暗示的利率下降顯然將是一個阻力。考慮到第三季的削減時間，它們對第三季業績的影響相對較小。但我們鼓勵您使用我們的銀行 NII 敏感度與市場隱含利率來產生該組成部分。

We then have the structural hedge. That will provide a tailwind. We've got the reinvestment of maturing positions. That will enable us to reinvest them at higher rates. We've signaled that for 2025, we've got [$115 billion] maturing at an average yield of about 2.9%. So think about those maturing and being replaced at something along the lines of five year bond rates.

然後我們就有了結構性對沖。這將提供順風。我們對到期部位進行了再投資。這將使我們能夠以更高的利率對其進行再投資。我們已經表示，到 2025 年，我們將有 [1,150 億美元] 到期，平均收益率約為 2.9%。因此，請考慮一下那些到期並被替換為類似於五年期債券利率的債券。

We've then got volume growth. Whilst volume growth has been relatively subdued in 2024. We do hope that with interest rates coming off and economic activity picking up that we will see more loan growth. We continue to guide to mid-single digits in the medium to long term. The timing of getting there will be unpredictable.

然後我們就得到了銷量的成長。雖然 2024 年交易量成長相對疲軟。中長期來看，我們持續將指引維持在中個位數。到達那裡的時間將是不可預測的。

And then lastly, we keep an eye on time deposit migration that has been relatively stable, particularly in Hong Kong at 39% over the last couple of quarters. But the impact on that as rates come off will be variable. It depends on competitive pressures and customer behavior. So all of those factors is how we have thought about it and modelled it and included that within our mid-10s Roy to guidance for 2025.

最後，我們密切關注相對穩定的定期存款遷移情況，特別是在香港，過去幾季為 39%。但隨著利率下降，其影響將是可變的。這取決於競爭壓力和客戶行為。因此，所有這些因素都是我們如何思考和建模的，並將其納入我們 10 歲左右的 Roy 到 2025 年的指導中。

Thanks you, Aman.

謝謝你，阿曼。

Thank you. Could I just one follow up. Thanks very much for that really detailed answer. In relation to the mid-10s [ROE] aspiration next year. Does that include or exclude any potential kind of upfront costs as part of any restructuring?

謝謝。我可以跟進一下嗎？非常感謝您的詳細回答。與明年 10 年代中期 [ROE] 的願望相關。這是否包括或排除作為任何重組一部分的任何潛在的前期成本？

So the mid-10 rotary guidance is excluding notable items. We will come back to you in February with full details of the benefits and costs of the reorganization.

因此，10 月中旬的旋轉指導不包括值得注意的項目。我們將在二月回覆您，詳細介紹重組的收益和成本。

Thank you so much.

太感謝了。

Thank you, Aman.

謝謝你，阿曼。

James Invine, Redburn.

詹姆斯·英文，雷德伯恩。

Hi, good morning to you both. Good evening. I've got two please. The first is on the wealth business. So clearly not -- some really good revenue numbers. I was just wondering if you could kind of explain the slight disconnect with the net new invested asset number in Asia, which certainly was positive but probably not quite as positive as I might have expected, given how good the revenue line was.

嗨，你們倆早安。晚安.我有兩個，請。首先是財富業務。顯然不是——一些非常好的收入數字。我只是想知道您是否可以解釋一下與亞洲淨新投資資產數量之間的輕微脫節，這當然是積極的，但考慮到收入線的良好程度，可能沒有我預期的那麼積極。

And then second, could you just share your thoughts about the outlook for corporate loan growth across Asia? So in fact, loan growth more generally across Asia. So I think in the second quarter, we saw both Hong Kong and ex Hong Kong fall slightly. But I think three months ago, [Neil] was sounding a bit more positive, at least on Hong Kong. Also we've had the announcements in China about a month ago. So just where do we go from here on the Asia loan volumes?

其次，您能否分享一下您對亞洲企業貸款成長前景的看法？事實上，整個亞洲的貸款成長更為普遍。所以我認為在第二季度，我們看到香港和除香港以外的地區都略有下降。但我認為三個月前，[尼爾]聽起來更積極一些，至少在香港方面是如此。大約一個月前，我們也在中國發布了相關公告。那麼亞洲貸款量下一步該往哪裡走呢？

Thank you, James. I'm going to share some thoughts on your two questions and I'll ask John to go into more details about both of them. First, our wealth business as you have seen in this quarter is exhibited double digit returns. This is the third quarter in a row with similar type returns. Wealth business as you know is generated from four segments. One of which has performed quite well, which is the trading activities of our customers. And that manifests both in the private bank as well as in our invested assets. They have been very strong and they have been even stronger following the measures we have seen in China.

謝謝你，詹姆斯。我將分享對你的兩個問題的一些想法，並請約翰詳細介紹這兩個問題。首先，正如您在本季看到的那樣，我們的財富業務呈現兩位數的回報。這是連續第三個季度出現類似類型的回報。如您所知，財富業務由四個部分產生。其中一項表現相當不錯，就是我們客戶的交易活動。這不僅體現在私人銀行上，也體現在我們的投資資產上。他們非常強大，而且在我們在中國看到的措施之後，他們變得更加強大。

On the outlook for corporate loan growth in Asia, we are -- as I shared earlier, we are very encouraged by the policy measures that have been taking place -- that have taken place both in mainland China as well as well as in Hong Kong.

關於亞洲企業貸款成長的前景，正如我之前所說，我們對中國大陸和香港正在採取的政策措施感到非常鼓舞。

We see these measures combined with the outlook on rates coming down as supportive of future growth, specifically in our Hong Kong book. Outside Hong Kong, the rest of Asia remains resilient. Southeast Asia and South Asia have remained quite strong in terms of wrong growth. Although of course a different size in our books than Hong Kong. John.

我們認為這些措施與利率下降的前景相結合將支持未來的成長，特別是在我們的香港書中。除香港外，亞洲其他地區仍保持彈性。東南亞和南亞的錯誤成長仍然相當強勁。當然，我們書中的規模與香港不同。約翰.

So just to amplify your comments on Wealth, so we're seeing good growth in Wealth. We see the net new investor assets. We're very pleased with that. They've in Asia, they've grown by $11 billion in the quarter and $49 billion over the nine months. You will see some movements as we grow our Wealth franchise. We also had $60 billion of deposits which George talked about. We'll see also deposits increase that they will ultimately feed into the Wealth share of wallets that we've grown. So continue to be encouraged. On corporate loan growth, nothing more to add than George's comments. Thanks.

因此，為了擴大您對財富的評論，我們看到財富的良好成長。我們看到新增投資者淨資產。我們對此非常滿意。他們在亞洲的季度增長了 110 億美元，過去 9 個月增長了 490 億美元。隨著我們發展財富專營權，您會看到一些變化。我們還有喬治談到的 600 億美元存款。我們還將看到存款增加，它們最終將進入我們增加的錢包的財富份額。所以繼續受到鼓勵。關於企業貸款成長，除了喬治的評論之外沒有什麼可補充的了。謝謝。

Thank you, James.

謝謝你，詹姆斯。

[Kung Penma] at China Securities. Please accept the prompt to unmute your line.

[龔奔馬] 中國證券。請接受提示以取消線路靜音。

Hey, good morning. Good morning, John. This is [Kung] China Securities. Thank you for taking my question. I got one question on transaction banking because we've seen a slight recovery in the transaction banking income in the third quarter.

嘿，早安。早安，約翰。我是[恭]中國證券。感謝您回答我的問題。我有一個關於交易銀行業務的問題，因為我們看到第三季交易銀行業務收入略有回升。

But I think that's maybe driven by the FX volatilities, but going forward, maybe we can see more rate cuts going forward and we can -- maybe we're going to see continued FX volatility going forward. So could you please give me a little bit more color on the future outlook of the transaction banking income? If you could you comment on both NII and [non-NII] that's going to be quite appreciated. Thank you.

但我認為這可能是由外匯波動推動的，但展望未來，也許我們可以看到未來更多的降息，而且我們可以 - 也許我們會看到未來持續的外匯波動。那麼您能否給我更多關於交易銀行收入未來前景的資訊？如果您能對 NII 和 [非 NII] 發表評論，我們將不勝感激。謝謝。

Thank you, Kung. I'll ask John to comment on this area where as you've heard the saying, an area of strategic differentiation for us for our wholesale customers and where we keep investing and do expect continued growth in this space given our investments and our leadership in the space. John.

謝謝你，龔。我將請約翰對這個領域發表評論，正如您所聽到的那樣，這是我們針對批發客戶的戰略差異化領域，鑑於我們的投資和我們在的空間。約翰.

Yes. So we've been pleased by the growth in Wholesale Transaction Banking in the quarter up 7%. As you say, an element of that is client driven activity around FX and rates volatility. But within that, we continue to invest in global trade solutions and global payments. And global trade solutions, we continue to grow our market share in both Hong Kong and the UK.

是的。因此，我們對本季批發交易銀行業務成長 7% 感到高興。正如您所說，其中一個因素是客戶驅動的圍繞外匯和利率波動的活動。但在此範圍內，我們繼續投資全球貿易解決方案和全球支付。在全球貿易解決方案方面，我們持續擴大在香港和英國的市場份額。

And so as that market comes back, there is the opportunity for us to be a platform for our growth. Similarly, you'll see us to continue to invest in global payment solutions and we see a very optimistic path for the payment markets going forward. Thank you.

因此，隨著該市場的回歸，我們就有機會成為我們成長的平台。同樣，您將看到我們繼續投資全球支付解決方案，並且我們看到支付市場的未來前景非常樂觀。謝謝。

Thank you, Kung.

謝謝你，龔。

Amit Goel, Mediobanca.

阿米特·戈爾，Mediobanca。

Hi, thank you. Two questions for me. One just going back on the simplification program. Just curious, I guess in the past the group hasn't opted to combine commercial banking GBM. So just curious what's kind of seen as, as different now, which makes this more feasible and easy to execute with less maybe revenue attrition or a consideration.

你好，謝謝。有兩個問題問我。一個只是回到簡化計劃。只是好奇，我猜該集團過去並沒有選擇合併商業銀行 GBM。所以只是好奇現在的情況有所不同，這使得這變得更加可行並且更容易執行，而收入消耗或考慮因素可能會更少。

And then secondly, just on the ECL charges, those were a little bit higher than what I anticipated. It looks like a bit of that's from Hong Kong, Wholesale and in the UK ring [fenced] bank. So just curious if there's any kind of additional color you can provide on that and how you're thinking about the kind of 40 bps in the context of the guidance into next year? Thank you.

其次，就 ECL 費用而言，這些費用比我的預期要高一些。看起來其中一部分來自香港、批發和英國環形[圍欄]銀行。因此，我想知道您是否可以對此提供任何額外的顏色，以及您如何在明年的指導背景下考慮 40 個基點？謝謝。

Thank you, Amit. Let me address your first question and John can address the ECL charges question. So the primary reason of this reorganization is to simplify the bank as we shared, but we have been on a multiyear journey to simplify the activities we do in the bank. We have been exiting activities that were non-strategic we have been reshaping our portfolio. We have exited markets or activities that currently we are on track to complete the sale of our Argentina business and our Armenian business and announced two additional exits in September including South Africa, as well as the private bank in Germany. Now, that activity was addressing the what in terms of what we do as a strategy.

謝謝你，阿米特。讓我回答你的第一個問題，約翰可以回答 ECL 費用問題。因此，正如我們所分享的那樣，這次重組的主要原因是簡化銀行，但我們多年來一直在努力簡化我們在銀行的活動。我們一直在退出非策略性活動，我們一直在重塑我們的投資組合。我們已經退出了目前預計將完成阿根廷業務和亞美尼亞業務出售的市場或活動，並在 9 月宣布了另外兩項退出，包括南非以及德國的私人銀行。現在，該活動正在解決我們作為策略做什麼的問題。

The reorganization we have announced last week is basically addressing the how we execute our strategy. It's not changing the what is changing the how and the reason we could effectively execute how we change our strategy as in be simpler, more agile is because of the work we have done over the past few years in simplifying what we do.

我們上周宣布的重組基本上是解決我們如何執行策略的問題。它並沒有改變什麼，而是改變了我們如何有效執行我們改變策略的方式和原因，因為更簡單、更敏捷是因為我們在過去幾年中為簡化我們的工作所做的工作。

So it is the right time now to address how we operate -- how we execute our strategy because we have simplified what we are doing. We have clarified what our core strategic areas for us where we have competitive strength and where we have leadership and opportunities to grow. So the timing therefore is a natural kind of conclusion of the various activities that we have been taking through the transformation over the last five years.

因此，現在是解決我們如何運作——如何執行我們的策略的正確時機，因為我們已經簡化了我們正在做的事情。我們已經明確了我們的核心策略領域，在這些領域我們擁有競爭優勢、我們擁有領導力和成長機會。因此，這個時機是我們在過去五年中一直在進行轉型的各種活動的自然結論。

I want to say that outside the UK and Hong Kong, where we are merging all our commercial banking activities with global banking and market activities to form the corporate institutional bank. It will comprise our core products, including our balance sheet related products, credit and lending and deposits, our transaction banking products, as well as our other products such as investment banking or markets. And this should give our customers a more seamless way to deal with HSBC across all the product spectrum that we offer them. John.

我想說的是，在英國和香港以外，我們正在將所有商業銀行活動與全球銀行和市場活動合併，形成企業機構銀行。它將包括我們的核心產品，包括我們的資產負債表相關產品、信貸和貸款和存款、我們的交易銀行產品以及我們的其他產品，例如投資銀行或市場。這將為我們的客戶提供一種更無縫的方式來與匯豐銀行打交道，涵蓋我們提供的所有產品範圍。約翰.

So thanks, Amit. I'll give you a bit more color on the ECL charge. There's a $1 billion charge in third quarter which is 40 basis points of average loans. That's actually a more normal charge because Q2 benefited from releases and recoveries. If you then dissect the third quarter charge, there's three things within there. So firstly, the UK, which is a $0.2 billion charge, again that benefited from the releases in the second quarter. It's a more normal charge. There's nothing more going on in there.

所以謝謝，阿米特。我將為您提供有關 ECL 電荷的更多資訊。第三季有 10 億美元的費用，相當於平均貸款的 40 個基點。這實際上是一個更正常的費用，因為第二季度受益於釋放和恢復。如果你仔細分析第三季的費用，你會發現其中有三件事。首先，英國（費用為 2 億美元）再次受益於第二季的發布。這是比較正常的收費。裡面沒有什麼事情發生了。

Hong Kong in total, we incurred a $0.5 billion charge. As you say, that was mainly $0.4 billion charge in wholesale which included $0.1 billion of mainland China CRA and $0.1 billion of Hong Kong CRA. The rest of it was across a number of sectors. Again, nothing of particular note.

我們在香港總共產生了 5 億美元的費用。正如你所說，這主要是4億美元的批發費用，其中包括1億美元的中國大陸CRA和1億美元的香港CRA。其餘的則涉及多個部門。同樣，沒有什麼特別值得注意的。

And then relative to third quarter last year, we did have an increase in our Mexico retail charge. So that went up to $0.2 billion charge. That's actually been relatively normal through the quarters of 2024. But relative to third quarter '23 is a little higher. So we're confident as we see this that we will be in our 30 basis points to 40 basis points planning range over the medium term and certainly, therefore '24.

與去年第三季相比，我們的墨西哥零售費用確實有所增加。這樣費用就高達 2 億美元。這實際上在 2024 年各個季度都相對正常。因此，當我們看到這一點時，我們有信心在中期（當然，因此「24」）我們將處於 30 個基點到 40 個基點的計劃範圍內。

Thank you, Amit.

謝謝你，阿米特。

Gurpreet Singh Sahi, Goldman Sachs.

古普雷特·辛格·薩希，高盛。

Thank you for taking my question and congratulations on a good set of numbers. I have two and mostly follow ups. First is on Wealth and then we'll move to Hong Kong CRE. On Wealth, can I check with the so called policy rescue in China? Only a month old and for this reporting quarter, maybe a quarter -- maybe only a week. So have we seen like from August as we transitioned into September, good Wealth Management income traction better than what we are reporting in the third quarter and then in October that continued, maybe it even accelerated. So some color there would be helpful.

感謝您提出我的問題，並祝賀您獲得了一組不錯的數字。我有兩個，大部分是後續行動。首先是財富，然後我們將轉向香港商業房地產。關於財富，我可以查一下中國所謂的政策救援嗎？僅一個月前，對於本報告季度來說，可能是一個季度，也可能只有一週。因此，從 8 月份過渡到 9 月份，我們是否看到良好的財富管理收入牽引力比我們在第三季度報告的要好，然後在 10 月份這種情況持續存在，甚至可能加速。所以一些顏色會有幫助。

And then on Hong Kong, CRE specifically not talking about Hong Kong in general, can we get numbers on the NPL ratio within the overall global CRE book and also the Hong Kong CRE book? As at the half year, we got 9% stage three loans in both. Thank you very much.

然後在香港，CRE 特別不談論香港的整體情況，我們能否獲得全球 CRE 帳簿和香港 CRE 帳簿中不良貸款率的數據？截至上半年，我們都獲得了 9% 的第三階段貸款。非常感謝。

Thank you, Gurpreet. Let me just briefly address wealth and I'll ask John to complement it and address your Hong Kong CRE question. So there are two trends in Wealth. There is the underlying trend, which is a continued growth in our Wealth business, which has been there quarter after quarter. It's a result of both our increased investment in the space. It's a result of us winning market share, given our brand and franchise. It is also a result of the underlying market growing.

謝謝你，古普雷特。讓我簡單地談談財富問題，我將請約翰補充並解決您對香港企業房地產的問題。所以財富有兩種趨勢。有一個潛在的趨勢，那就是我們的財富業務持續成長，而且每季都在持續成長。這是我們增加對該領域投資的結果。鑑於我們的品牌和特許經營權，這是我們贏得市場份額的結果。這也是基礎市場成長的結果。

As you have seen, Hong Kong is now expected to become the largest Private Wealth Hub in the world by the end of the decade. So that is definitely a trend and we are privileged with our position in Hong Kong to be able to benefit from it and benefit our customers from it.

正如您所看到的，香港現在預計將在本十年末成為世界上最大的私人財富中心。因此，這絕對是一個趨勢，我們很榮幸能夠憑藉在香港的地位，能夠從中受益，並讓我們的客戶受益。

That is the first component which is an underlying continued investment and growth trend. You add to that obviously the additional activity we have seen following the measures that have been taken in China. This has created additional activity which has been -- as you said for a week or so in the third quarter.

這是第一個組成部分，是潛在的持續投資和成長趨勢。您顯然還補充說，我們在中國採取措施後還看到了更多的活動。正如您所說，這已經創造了額外的活動，在第三季度持續了一周左右。

We do see this activity continuing and obviously normalizing. But we do see these measures that have been taken to be supportive measures, certainly of the economy at large, but in particular supportive measures of the financial markets and the revival of some of the financial market sluggishness that we've seen both in mainland China and Hong Kong over the last few quarters. John.

我們確實看到這種活動仍在繼續，並且明顯正在正常化。但我們確實看到這些措施是支持性措施，當然是對整個經濟的支持性措施，特別是對金融市場的支持性措施，以及我們在中國大陸看到的一些金融市場低迷的復甦。本季的香港。約翰.

So if I pick up your second point on Hong Kong CRE. It's actually a very similar picture to that we described at the second quarter. So a few customers continue to face cash flow pressures some of that is rates resultant and as rates come off, we would hope that begins to abate some of those cash flow pressures. If you look at the [h] Asia Wholesale Stage 3, they were up $1.1 billion in the quarter. Some of that relates to Hong Kong CRE. That also drove a modest amount of additional RWAS.

那麼，讓我來談談你關於香港商業地產的第二點。這實際上與我們在第二季度描述的情況非常相似。因此，一些客戶繼續面臨現金流壓力，其中一些是利率造成的，隨著利率下降，我們希望開始減輕一些現金流壓力。如果你看看[h]亞洲批發第三階段，他們在本季成長了 11 億美元。其中一些與香港商業房地產有關。這也帶動了少量額外的 RWAS。

The ECLs on that we've referred to the fact that there was [$100 million] charge on ECLs. That was both across Stage 1 and Stage 2. The Stage 3 ratio is slightly up quarter on quarter, but we continue to see good collateral across that portfolio, and so we don't see this as a material ECL driver going forward. Our focus is really on supporting our customers through this period and as it says, pressures we should see start to reduce as rates recede.

關於預期信用損失，我們已經提到了預期信用損失 [1 億美元] 費用這一事實。第一階段和第二階段都是如此。驅動因素。我們的重點實際上是在這段時期內為我們的客戶提供支持，正如它所說，隨著利率的下降，我們應該看到的壓力開始減少。

And as we said, we are confident about the outlook of the Hong Kong economy at large and the Hong Kong commercial real estate sector in particular, partly because of the rates receding as John was just mentioning, but also partly due to the policy measures and the countercyclical measures that have been taken this month to support the sector. We see these as having positive developments for the outlook of the market.

正如我們所說，我們對香港整體經濟，特別是香港商業地產的前景充滿信心，部分原因是約翰剛才提到的利率下降，部分原因是政策措施和本月為支持該行業而採取的反週期措施。我們認為這些對市場前景有正面的發展。

Thank you very much. Gurpreet.

非常感謝。古普雷特。

Jeremy Hugh, CICC.

傑里米·休，中金公司。

Good morning, George. Good morning, John. My first question is on the structural hedge. I think George, you mentioned that $25 billion is a good run rate for you -- for how you to build up the structural hedge in the second half. But in Q3, that increased by $27 billion and maybe most of that comes from FX impact. So do you still stick to a $25 billion run rate or you would like to accelerate it?

早上好，喬治。早安，約翰。我的第一個問題是關於結構性對沖。我想喬治，你提到 250 億美元對你來說是一個很好的運行率——對於你如何在下半年建立結構性對沖。但在第三季度，這一數字增加了 270 億美元，其中大部分可能來自外匯影響。那麼，您是否仍堅持 250 億美元的運行速度，還是想加快速度？

So and the second question is on -- I would like to hear your thoughts on what area HSBC can further make investments because it feels like over the years our strategy always emphasized that the bank had to make excellent, good cost discipline and we did it. And we made some investments but mostly small ones. So if we look forward, do you see any opportunities that may help us to further drive growth and take market share or do you think it's better to stay cautious as we are still facing some top-line pressures? Thank you.

那麼，第二個問題是——我想聽聽您對匯豐銀行可以在哪些領域進一步進行投資的想法，因為多年來我們的策略一直強調銀行必須制定出色、良好的成本紀律，而我們做到了。我們做了一些投資，但大多是小投資。因此，如果我們展望未來，您是否看到任何可能幫助我們進一步推動成長並佔據市場份額的機會，或者您認為最好保持謹慎，因為我們仍然面臨一些頂線壓力？謝謝。

Thank you, Jeremy. Let me address your second question on investments and then John can address your structural hedge question. So first, as you said, cost discipline. I've taken it from my days in my [CFO] role with me as CEO it is embedded in the organization and we will maintain cost discipline. You should expect this to be ingrained in the way we think spending wisely and in the right places.

謝謝你，傑瑞米。讓我回答你關於投資的第二個問題，然後約翰可以回答你的結構性對沖問題。因此，正如您所說，首先是成本紀律。這是我在擔任執行長期間的 [CFO] 角色中學到的，它已融入組織中，我們將維持成本紀律。你應該預料到這一點將根深蒂固地體現在我們明智地花錢並花在正確的地方的方式中。

In terms of strategy, we basically in the reorganization we announced last week. We are basically organizing ourselves alongside our strategic pillars. So this creates clarity and this also creates simplicity in the way we can execute our strategy.

從策略上來說，我們基本上就是上週宣布的重組。我們基本上是沿著我們的策略支柱組織起來的。因此，這創造了清晰度，也使我們執行策略的方式變得簡單。

We have two home markets where we have scale, a leading market position and great growth opportunities and certainly a very strong competitive edge. In our Corporate and Institutional Banking Business, we have a global connectivity capability and a transaction banking capability that is second to none, that is very leading and providing excellent services to our customers. Our positioning is very cherished and very valued by our customers.

我們有兩個本土市場，我們擁有規模、領先的市場地位和巨大的成長機會，當然還有非常強大的競爭優勢。在我們的企業和機構銀行業務中，我們擁有首屈一指的全球連接能力和交易銀行能力，非常領先，為我們的客戶提供優質的服務。我們的定位非常受到客戶的珍惜與重視。

And then we have Wealth and Premier Banking, which is really the proposition aimed at the affluent segment for investment needs in particular across our network and in particular in Asia and the Middle East. Any opportunity we have to accelerate this strategy, be it organic or inorganic, is an opportunity. We will go after we are looking at these areas all exhibit fantastic growth opportunities. We have a real competitive edge and we will continuously invest in them both organically and inorganically if the opportunities arise.

然後我們有財富和高級銀行業務，這實際上是針對富裕階層的投資需求的主張，特別是在我們的網絡中，特別是在亞洲和中東。我們必須加速這項策略的任何機會，無論是有機的還是無機的，都是一個機會。當我們看到這些領域都展現出巨大的成長機會後，我們就會去。我們擁有真正的競爭優勢，如果機會出現，我們將持續對它們進行有機和無機投資。

What I should say there is we do have the capital to support our needs. We have the capital to support obviously our dividend distribution, to support organic growth and to support inorganic opportunities. Should we find some that can accelerate our strategy and allow us to gain market share.

我應該說的是，我們確實有資金來支持我們的需求。我們有足夠的資本來支持我們的股息分配、有機成長和無機機會。我們是否應該找到一些可以加速我們的策略並讓我們獲得市場份額的東西？

Jeremy, if I pick up your question on the structural hedge, as you rightly say, we have increased our structural hedge during the period from $504 billion at the June 30, to $531 billion at the September 30. But if -- that was mostly FX driven. The duration of that remains 2.8 years. We would continue to expect to increase our structural hedge. But that will depend on market conditions that we have. And I would say that the big increases of our structural hedge are probably behind us. So further increases from here will only have a modest impact on our Banking NII sensitivity. Thanks, Jeremy.

傑里米，如果我回答你關於結構性對沖的問題，正如你所說，我們在此期間增加了結構性對沖，從 6 月 30 日的 5040 億美元增加到 9 月 30 日的 5310 億美元。外匯驅動。其持續時間仍為2.8年。我們將繼續期望增加結構性對沖。但這將取決於我們現有的市場條件。我想說的是，我們的結構性對沖的大幅增加可能已經過去了。因此，從這裡開始的進一步增加只會對我們的銀行業 NII 敏感度產生適度影響。謝謝，傑里米。

Thank you, Jeremy.

謝謝你，傑瑞米。

Katherine Lei, JP Morgan.

凱瑟琳雷，摩根大通。

Hi, thanks, George, and thanks, John. So my questions will be two. The first one I would like to ask about NII. I think the confusing thing here is that I think on the headline and the headline NII actually slightly missed expectation. But if we work out the Banking NII, there's a moderate beats and also we try to calculate what is the banking net interest margin? It seems it's by and large stable despite in 3Q. [High] actually went down kind of like on average 50 basis points. So may I ask like, what is driving that stable net interest margin? Would it be from the Liabilities Management side?

嗨，謝謝喬治，謝謝約翰。所以我的問題有兩個。第一個我想問關於NII的問題。我認為這裡令人困惑的是，我認為標題和標題 NII 實際上稍微低於預期。但如果我們計算出銀行業NII，就會出現適度的節拍，並且我們還會嘗試計算銀行業淨利差是多少？儘管在第三季度，但似乎總體穩定。 [高]實際上平均下降了 50 個基點。那我可以問一下，是什麼推動了穩定的淨利差？是來自負債管理方面嗎？

Just now John gave us some color in terms of like say deposit migration. But is it possible to give me some numbers to work around? Like what is the CASA ratio in Hong Kong? And how does how the trend has changed? So this will be my first question.

剛才約翰給我們提供了一些關於存款遷移等方面的資訊。但是可以給我一些數字來解決嗎？例如香港的CASA比例是多少？趨勢又發生了怎樣的變化？所以這是我的第一個問題。

My second question is that when I look at the RWA migration, I saw on the numerator -- I saw that in the migration side and there is a triple in addition to CET1 capital due to movement in reserves. Can we get a of how to say color on that one? Will we be seeing some kind of movement like similar type of movement in the coming quarters?

我的第二個問題是，當我查看 RWA 遷移時，我在分子上看到了——我在遷移方面看到了這一點，由於儲備金的變動，除了 CET1 資本之外還有三倍。我們能知道如何表達那個顏色嗎？在接下來的幾個季度中，我們是否會看到某種類似於類似類型的運動？

Actually, I have one slight additional questions is on the laws that we were talking about the legacy securities. Can you give us a bit of color on this one and understand that management put into notable items? So supposedly to be one off, but is it really one off in nature where we have other securities perpetual bonds that we would like to redeem in the future? Like say, for example, do we have another 10% type of a perpetual bond currency in our book that we may be looking to redeem it when opportunities arise? Thank you.

事實上，我還有一個小問題，那就是我們正在談論的遺留證券的法律。您能否為我們介紹一下這方面的情況，並了解管理階層對值得注意的專案的投入？所以照理說是一次性的，但如果我們有其他證券永續債我們想在未來贖回，這真的是一次性的嗎？比方說，我們的帳簿中是否還有另一種 10% 類型的永續債券貨幣，當機會出現時我們可能會尋求贖回它？謝謝。

Thank you, Katherine. I'm going to let John answer the three questions but allow me one comment on the legacy securities. We have said that we will look at our legacy securities continuously, but we will take action that are accretive or neutral. We will not take action on legacy securities that are detrimental to our investors and our shareholders.

謝謝你，凱瑟琳。我將讓約翰回答這三個問題，但請允許我對遺留證券發表一點評論。我們已經說過，我們將持續關注我們的遺留證券，但我們將採取增值或中立的行動。我們不會對不利於我們的投資者和股東的遺留證券採取行動。

In this case, we have taken an action on the legacy security that has a more than 10% coupon that could be naturally and easily replaced with much lower rates. And therefore, there is a positive impact on the Net Present Value basis of the actions we have taken and these actions we will always look at where there is value in it. John.

在這種情況下，我們對優惠券超過 10% 的傳統證券採取了行動，這些證券可以自然且輕鬆地以低得多的利率替換。因此，我們所採取的行動對淨現值基礎產生正面影響，我們將始終關注這些行動的價值所在。約翰.

Yeah, so thanks Katherine, three questions there. So if I start on your net interest margin, we give some detail on the net interest margin on page 17 of the slide deck. But effectively the net interest margin has moved from 162 to 146. There's three things driving that. One, the loss on the early redemption of legacy securities, as you've mentioned. Two, some Argentina volatility. And then the remaining is on we've allocated more funding to the trading book. And as you know, that will be a drag on net interest income but also an equal and opposite benefit on non-net interest income.

是的，謝謝凱瑟琳，有三個問題。因此，如果我從淨利差開始，我們會在投影片第 17 頁上提供有關淨利差的一些詳細資訊。但實際上，淨利差已從 162 升至 146。第一，正如您所提到的，早期贖回遺留證券的損失。二、阿根廷的一些波動。然後剩下的就是我們為交易帳戶分配了更多資金。如您所知，這將拖累淨利息收入，但也會對非淨利息收入產生同等且相反的好處。

So our preferred measure and the way that we think about it is through the Banking NII lens, there you'll see that our clean run rate, ex Argentina and ex notables has been relatively stable period on period, reflecting the fact that the Q3 rate cuts had given their timing had a modest impact on Q3.

因此，我們首選的衡量標準和我們考慮的方式是透過銀行業 NII 鏡頭，您會看到我們的清潔運行率（不包括阿根廷和知名人士）相對穩定，反映了第三季度利率的事實鑑於其時機對第三季影響不大。

If I -- you'd also asked about deposit migration. We've again got some detail in that on slide 17, but that has remained relatively stable at 39% for the Hong Kong deposits. If I move on to your CET1 question and then particularly the change in other adjustments for CET1 capital, that is around the fair value movements of our securities that are classified as fair value through OCI. So we've generated a gain on those which has given us also a capital benefit on that.

如果我──你​​也問過存款遷移的問題。我們在幻燈片 17 中再次獲得了一些細節，但香港存款的比例保持相對穩定，為 39%。如果我繼續討論你的 CET1 問題，特別是 CET1 資本的其他調整的變化，那就是圍繞我們透過 OCI 歸類為公允價值的證券的公允價值變動。因此，我們已經獲得了這些收益，這也為我們帶來了資本收益。

I think on legacy security, George has covered most of the questions on that, but we're not signaling anything at this stage around further legacy securities redemptions. Thank you, Katherine.

我認為關於遺留證券，喬治已經涵蓋了大部分問題，但我們現階段沒有就進一步遺留證券贖回發出任何信號。謝謝你，凱瑟琳。

Thank you, Katherine.

謝謝你，凱瑟琳。

Edward Firth, KBW.

愛德華·弗斯，KBW。

Yeah, good morning, everybody, and thanks for taking the questions. I just have two questions. One was just a clarification. Just to be clear that the $1.1 billion increase in Stage 3 loans in Hong Kong, is that all CRE? that's just a -- just be clear on that. That was the first question.

是的，大家早安，感謝您提出問題。我只有兩個問題。其中之一隻是澄清。需要澄清的是，香港第三階段貸款增加了 11 億美元，這都是商業房地產嗎？這只是——請澄清這一點。這是第一個問題。

And the second one is we've obviously got a US election coming up in the next couple of weeks and I just wondered if you could give us some thoughts from your perspective in terms of the possible sort of risks and opportunities that you see that could come out of that, I guess with the realistic options.

第二個問題是，我們顯然將在未來幾週內舉行美國大選，我只是想知道您是否可以從您的角度給我們一些關於您認為可能存在的風險和機會的想法走出這個困境，我想有現實的選擇。

And I guess just related to that, there was a lot of press comment that your reorganization was driven by splitting up the Asian and I guess the UK or developed markets businesses. Is that actually right? Or is that just sort of idle speculation from journalists? Great, thanks so much.

我想與此相關的是，有很多媒體評論說你們的重組是透過拆分亞洲業務和我想是英國或發達市場業務來推動的。這真的是對的嗎？或者這只是記者的無端猜測？太好了，非常感謝。

Okay, thank you, Ed. Let me take your second and third questions and John can address the Stage 3 question. So this is a matter for the US electorate to choose their President. I'm not going to speculate or comment. We will see the outcomes on the November 5.

好的，謝謝你，艾德。讓我回答你的第二個問題和第三個問題，約翰可以回答第三階段的問題。所以這是美國選民選擇總統的事情。我不會猜測或評論。我們將在 11 月 5 日看到結果。

But what is important for us is that we serve our customers. We have been serving our customers through various -- through an evolving set of rules and regulations on the global scale. We serve them for their needs, especially for their cross border needs where we are unique in being able to do so.

但對我們來說重要的是我們為客戶提供服務。我們一直透過全球範圍內不斷發展的一系列規則和法規來為我們的客戶提供服務。我們為他們的需求提供服務，特別是滿足他們的跨國需求，我們在這方面是獨一無二的。

We obviously comply with all rules and regulations. We will make sure that our customers are able to comply with all rules and regulations and so far that their financial needs are concerned and any new rules and regulations which may come with any new administration are things that we will obviously comply with and support our customers to comply with.

我們顯然遵守所有規則和規定。我們將確保我們的客戶能夠遵守所有規則和規定，就他們的財務需求而言，任何新政府可能帶來的任何新規則和規定都是我們顯然會遵守和支持我們的客戶的遵守。

What I can say though, is it remains a distinctive skill that we have in supporting our customers' cross border needs. This is one of our unique areas of competitive edge and this remains unchanged and our customer needs remain broad based and global and we will continue supporting them on that mission.

但我可以說的是，它仍然是我們在支援客戶跨國需求方面所擁有的獨特技能。這是我們獨特的競爭優勢領域之一，這一點保持不變，我們的客戶需求仍然廣泛且全球化，我們將繼續支持他們實現這項使命。

And with regards to the reorganization, this is categorically not either an intent or a preparation as has been speculated by some splitting of the Asia business or etcetera. Absolutely not. This is a simplification of the bank where we today govern ourselves through five regions. And we are bringing this regional setup down to two. That is part of the simplification.

至於重組，這絕對不是亞洲業務分拆等所猜測的意圖或準備。絕對不是。這是銀行的簡化，我們今天透過五個區域進行自我管理。我們正在將這個區域設定減少到兩個。這是簡化的一部分。

It is also meant to help us speed up the build out of what is a very promising corridor between the Middle East and Asia. We are seeing material growth in this corridor over the last few years. Our customers across both Middle East and Asia are looking for opportunities of trade and investments between them. And we have been -- we have a leading, we have a unique position to be able to help our customers across this corridor. That simplification should also help speed up the build of that corridor.

它還旨在幫助我們加快建造中東和亞洲之間非常有前途的走廊。在過去的幾年裡，我們看到這條走廊的物質成長。我們遍布中東和亞洲的客戶正在尋找彼此之間的貿易和投資機會。我們一直處於領先地位，我們擁有獨特的地位，能夠幫助我們的客戶跨越這條走廊。這種簡化也應該有助於加速該走廊的建設。

And I remind you in our western geographies now, we are essentially a wholesale bank. We have sold our retail banking activities in France. We have sold the mass retail activities in the US. We have sold the bank in Canada. We sold the bank in Greece. We are in the process of selling the bank in Argentina. And with that, we will be left with what is essentially a corporate institutional banking business. That also bring some simplification aspects to the way we govern ourselves in this region. These are the reasons why we did the simplification of the reorganization we announced last week. John.

我提醒您，現在在我們的西部地區，我們本質上是一家批發銀行。我們已經出售了在法國的零售銀行業務。我們已經在美國出售了大眾零售業務。我們已經賣掉加拿大的銀行了。我們賣掉了希臘的銀行。我們正在出售阿根廷的銀行。這樣一來，我們將剩下本質上是企業機構銀行業務。這也為我們在該地區的治理方式帶來了一些簡化。這就是我們對上周宣布的重組進行簡化的原因。約翰.

On your CRE question Ed. So of the $1.1 billion increase in Asia Wholesale Stage 3s, most of that was Hong Kong CRE. The picture is very similar to how we described it at the second quarter. We could see more migrations into Stage 3 until interest rates begin to ease the cash flow pressures in those businesses. But given the collateral levels that we have against that portfolio, we don't see that as a major driver of ECL risk going forward and we're focused on supporting our customers through this transition period. Thanks, Ed.

關於你的 CRE 問題 Ed。因此，亞洲批發第三階段增加的 11 億美元中，大部分是香港商業房地產。這個情況與我們在第二季的描述非常相似。在利率開始緩解這些企業的現金流壓力之前，我們可能會看到更多的企業進入第三階段。但考慮到我們針對該投資組合的抵押品水平，我們認為這並不是未來預期信用損失風險的主要驅動因素，我們將專注於在這段過渡時期為客戶提供支援。謝謝，艾德。

Thank you very much, Ed.

非常感謝你，艾德。

That ends today's Q&A. So I will now hand back to George for closing remarks. Thank you

今天的問答到此結束。現在我將請喬治致閉幕詞。謝謝

Thank you, Louise, and thank you everyone for your questions today. To recap, we delivered another good quarter which shows that our strategy is working. We have reconfirmed all of our guidance including the mid-10s return on tangible equity for 2024 and for 2025 excluding notable items. And I am committed to building on this, which our organization will enable us to do by simplifying and streamlining the group.

謝謝你，路易絲，也謝謝大家今天提出的問題。回顧一下，我們又交付了一個好的季度，這表明我們的策略正在發揮作用。我們重新確認了所有指引，包括 2024 年和 2025 年 10 年代中期的有形股本回報率（不包括值得注意的項目）。我致力於在此基礎上再接再厲，我們的組織將透過簡化和精簡團隊來幫助我們實現這一目標。

We will share more details at our full year results in February as part of a wider business update. Neil and the team are available to answer any questions and I look forward to speaking with you again very soon. Please enjoy the rest of the day wherever you are and thank you again.

作為更廣泛的業務更新的一部分，我們將在二月份的全年業績中分享更多詳細資訊。尼爾和團隊可以回答任何問題，我期待很快再次與您交談。無論您身在何處，請享受這一天剩下的時間，再次感謝您。

Thank you, ladies, and gentlemen for joining today's webinar. You may now disconnect your line.

謝謝女士們先生們參加今天的網路研討會。現在您可以斷開線路。