滙豐控股 (HSBC) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Portions of this transcript marked (technical difficulty) indicate audio problems. The missing text will be supplied if a replay becomes available.

本文字稿中標示（技術難題）的部分錶示有音訊問題。如果有重播視頻，我們會補充缺少的文本。

Welcome, ladies and gentlemen, to the analyst and investor webinar on the 3Q results for HSBC Holdings plc. For your information, this call is being recorded. I will now hand over to Pam Kaur, Group CFO.

女士們、先生們，歡迎參加匯豐控股有限公司第三季業績分析師和投資者網路研討會。請注意，本次通話正在錄音。現在我將把發言權交給集團財務長帕姆·考爾。

Welcome, everyone. Thank you for joining. We are making positive progress towards creating a simple, more agile growing HSBC. The intent and discipline with which we are executing our strategy is reflected in the momentum this quarter and our target upgrades. Most notably, our annualized RoTE of 17.6% year-to-date excluding notable items.

歡迎各位。感謝您的參與。我們在打造一個更簡潔、更靈活、更具發展潛力的匯豐銀行方面取得了積極進展。我們執行策略的決心和紀律體現在本季的發展動能和目標上調。最值得注意的是，我們今年迄今的年化 RoTE 為 17.6%（不包括重大項目）。

Throughout this presentation, I'll focus on year-over-year comparisons. This will exclude notable items and be on a constant currency basis. The equivalent comparisons on a reported basis can be found on slides 16 and 22.

在本次演講中，我將重點放在同比數據。這將排除一些重要項目，並以固定匯率為基礎。報告基礎上的等效比較可以在投影片 16 和 22 中找到。

Let's turn straight to the highlights. We reported a strong quarter. Total revenues grew $500 million to $17.9 billion. Wealth had another good quarter, with 29% growth in fee and other income. Our customer deposit balances stand at $1.7 trillion. If we include held-for-sale balances, these grew by $86 billion. We are also investing for growth.

讓我們直接來看重點。我們本季業績表現強勁。總收入成長5億美元，達到179億美元。Wealth 業績又迎來了一個不錯的季度，手續費和其他收入成長了 29%。我們的客戶存款餘額為 1.7 兆美元。如果將待售資產餘額也計算在內，則增加了 860 億美元。我們也在進行成長方面的投資。

On October 9, we announced our intention to privatize Hang Seng Bank. We see this as a compelling opportunity. Let me set out clearly our reasoning. First, it meets all four of our criteria for acquisitions. Second, we see good growth in Hong Kong in the years ahead. It's a business in a home market we know very well.

10月9日，我們宣布了恆生銀行私有化的計畫。我們認為這是一個極具吸引力的機會。讓我清楚地闡述我們的理由。首先，它符合我們所有的四項收購標準。其次，我們預計香港未來幾年將保持良好的成長動能。這是一個我們非常熟悉的本土市場業務。

Third, we see an opportunity to create greater alignment for better operational leverage and efficiencies. Fourth, we are acquiring a business with structurally high pre-impairment margins. And while we are not calling the credit cycle, we believe it is a cycle. Fifth, we are removing a $3 billion capital inefficiency. This is a transaction which we initiated as a growth investment. It is also a statement of our confidence in the outlook for Hong Kong.

第三，我們看到了一個機會，可以更好地協調一致，從而提高營運效率和效益。第四，我們收購的是一家在減損前利潤率結構性較高的企業。雖然我們沒有稱之為信貸週期，但我們認為它是一個週期。第五，我們正在消除30億美元的資本浪費。這是我們作為一項成長投資而發起的一項交易。這也表達了我們對香港前景的信心。

We are in an offer period, so we are unable to give more details on synergies at this stage. What I will say is that consolidating the noncontrolling interest from the profit and loss increases our profit attributable to ordinary shareholders. We have also said that we see the potential for additional revenue through expanded capital market products to Hang Seng commercial clients and Wealth products to its affluent clients.

目前我們正處於要約收購期，因此現階段無法提供更多有關綜效的細節。我想說的是，將少數股東權益從損益表中剔除，可以增加歸屬於普通股股東的獲利。我們也曾表示，我們看到了透過向恆生商業客戶擴大資本市場產品以及向其富裕客戶擴大財富管理產品來增加收入的潛力。

And we can simplify and streamline decision-making processes, improve operational risk management and better align operations, which we expect will result in efficiencies. We are confident the integration will not distract us from organic growth and it's more value generative than a share buyback.

我們可以簡化和優化決策流程，改善營運風險管理，更好地協調運營，我們預計這將提高效率。我們相信此次整合不會分散我們對自身發展的注意力，而且比股票回購更有價值。

Turning now to upgrades. We are delivering against the targets we set out to you. We are now upgrading two items: our 2025 banking NII to $43 billion or better; our 2025 RoTE, excluding notable items to be mid-teens or better. We remain disciplined with our shareholders' capital, investing it where we see growth, exiting businesses with the intention to redeploy the costs where we don't. We are progressing at pace with the exit of non-strategic activities. This quarter, we have announced the exits of HSBC Malta and Retail Banking in Sri Lanka. This brings our total announced exits to 11 so far this year.

接下來是升級部分。我們正在實現我們向您設定的目標。我們現在將兩個指標上調：2025 年銀行業淨利息收入預期為 430 億美元或更高；2025 年股本回報率（不包括重要項目）預期為 15% 或更高。我們始終嚴格管理股東資金，將其投資於我們認為有成長潛力的領域，退出業務，並將節省的成本重新投入到我們認為沒有成長潛力的領域。我們正在快速推進非策略性業務的退出。本季度，我們宣布退出匯豐銀行馬耳他分行和斯里蘭卡零售銀行業務。這使得我們今年迄今宣布的退出總數達到 11 家。

Last week, we announced that we are conducting a strategic review of our Egyptian retail banking business. The review will not include our wholesale banking activities in Egypt, which remains an important market and one we believe has strong potential for growth. Finally, we are on track to achieve our target of around 3% cost growth in 2025 compared to 2024 on a target basis.

上週，我們宣布將對埃及零售銀行業務進行策略評估。此次審查不包括我們在埃及的批發銀行業務，埃及仍然是一個重要的市場，我們認為它具有強大的成長潛力。最後，我們預計將實現 2025 年成本成長比 2024 年成長約 3% 的目標。

Let's now turn to the firm-wide financial results. First, the income statement. Annualized RoTE was 16.4% in the third quarter or 17.6% year-to-date, both excluding notable items. Revenue grew 3% year-on-year to (technical difficulty) [$17.9] billion in the quarter. This was driven by a return to growth in banking NII and strong fee and other income. Profit before tax was $9.1 billion.

現在讓我們來看看公司整體的財務表現。首先是損益表。第三季年化 RoTE 為 16.4%，年初至今為 17.6%，均未計入重大項目。本季營收年增 3% 至（技術性錯誤）[179] 億美元。這主要得益於銀行業淨利息收入的恢復成長以及手續費和其他收入的強勁成長。稅前利潤為91億美元。

Looking at our capital and distributions. Our CET1 capital ratio is 14.5%, and we continue to target a dividend payout ratio for 2025 of 50% of earnings per ordinary share, excluding material notable items and related impacts.

審視我們的資本和分配情況。我們的 CET1 資本適足率為 14.5%，我們繼續以 2025 年普通股每股盈餘的 50% 為目標，不包括重大事項及相關影響。

Let's now turn to our business segment performance. We grew total revenue by 3%, and each of our four businesses returned greater than mid-teens annualized RoTE.

現在我們來看看各個業務部門的業績表現。我們的總營收成長了 3%，我們旗下四家企業的年化 RoTE 都超過 15% 以上。

Moving now to banking NII. $11 billion this quarter is a return to growth driven by deposit volumes. We are raising our full year guidance to $43 billion or better. I know you will have questions on the outlook. So I'll note here the multiple drivers of banking NII.

接下來我們來看銀行業淨利息收入。本季淨利息收入達110億美元，存款額成長帶動了銀行業重回成長軌道。我們將全年業績預期上調至 430 億美元或更高。我知道你們會對前景有疑問。因此，我在這裡列出影響銀行淨利息收入的多個因素。

HIBOR, which has recovered; deposit growth, which continues; interest rates where the Fed is still cutting. We have grown our structural hedge to $585 billion and its rolling on to higher yields. I'll also just mention that the chart on the left is on a constant currency basis, while our full year guidance is as reported. There is a reconciliation in the footnote.

夏威夷銀行間同業拆借利率（HIBOR）已經回升；存款成長仍在持續；聯準會仍在降息。我們已將結構性對沖規模擴大至 5,850 億美元，並且還在不斷擴大以獲得更高收益。我還要說明一下，左側的圖表是按固定匯率計算的，而我們的全年業績指引是按報告公佈的。腳註中對此進行了解釋。

Turning now to wholesale transaction banking. We are pleased with our strong ongoing customer engagement. This year has (technical difficulty) a range of economic and tariff situations. Both payments and trade grew again in the third quarter. In trade, I would note the first half was particularly strong as we supported customers to navigate a fast-changing trade landscape.

接下來我們來談談批發交易銀行業務。我們對目前與客戶保持的良好關係感到滿意。今年存在（技術性困難）一系列經濟和關稅狀況。第三季支付和貿易額均再次成長。在貿易方面，我注意到上半年表現特別強勁，因為我們幫助客戶應對了快速變化的貿易環境。

In security services, fee and other income grew 15%. This was due to higher asset balances given improved valuations and new customer mandates in Asia and the Middle East. In FX, performance reflects lower currency volatility and a strong prior year comparison. Looking through this, performance of $1.3 billion was strong.

在安保服務領域，費用和其他收入增加了 15%。這是由於估值提高以及在亞洲和中東獲得新的客戶委託，導致資產餘額增加。外匯市場表現反映了較低的貨幣波動性和去年同期強勁的同比基數。從這些數據來看，13億美元的業績表現強勁。

Turning now to Wealth. We delivered 29% fee and other income growth to $2.7 billion. This shows our strategy is working. Net new invested assets were $29 billion, with more than half coming from Asia at $15 billion. This takes total invested assets to $1.5 trillion.

接下來談談財富。我們實現了 29% 的費用和其他收入成長，達到 27 億美元。這說明我們的策略是有效的。淨新增投資資產為 290 億美元，其中超過一半來自亞洲，為 150 億美元。這使得總投資資產達到1.5兆美元。

Wealth was driven by all four income lines. Our insurance CSM balance is up by $2.5 billion year-to-date. This is driven by strong new business. I would note that we review our insurance assumptions in the third quarter, favorable experience and strong market performance slightly flat at these figures.

財富是由所有四項收入來源共同驅動的。今年迄今為止，我們的保險 CSM 餘額增加了 25 億美元。這主要得益於強勁的新業務成長。我想指出的是，我們在第三季對保險假設進行了審查，有利的經驗和強勁的市場表現使這些數字略有持平。

Private Banking grew 8%; and Asset Management, 6%, respectively. Investment distribution also performed very well, up (technical difficulty) in our customer franchise in Hong Kong. And Wealth is not just a Hong Kong story. It runs across our Asian franchise with double-digit fee and other income growth in Singapore, Mainland China and other markets.

私人銀行業務成長了 8%；資產管理業務成長了 6%。投資分配也表現得非常好，在香港的客戶特許經營中（技術困難）有所增長。而《財星》的故事不僅發生在香港。它在我們亞洲的特許經營體系中運作良好，在新加坡、中國大陸和其他市場實現了兩位數的費用和其他收入成長。

We are providing you with a little extra color this quarter on our Hong Kong flows on the next slide. We are pleased to have added 318,000 new-to-bank customers this quarter. This brings us to more than 900,000 year-to-date.

本季度，我們將在下一頁投影片中為您帶來更多關於香港業務流程的精彩內容。我們很高興本季新增了 318,000 名銀行新客戶。今年迄今為止，累計確診病例已超過 90 萬例。

What this slide shows over a slightly longer period is that non-resident customers have been a significant driver of customer activity and balances. These new-to-bank customers have contributed up to a third of flows across deposits, investments and insurance. We see new non-resident customers as a significant and long dated opportunity for the bank.

這張投影片顯示，在稍長一段時間內，非居民客戶一直是客戶活動和餘額的重要驅動因素。這些新客戶貢獻了存款、投資和保險業務總額的三分之一。我們認為，對銀行而言，拓展非居民新客戶是一個意義重大且前景廣闊的機會。

Now let's turn to credit. ECL of $1 billion is flat year-over-year and down modestly on the second quarter. We retain our full ECL guidance of around 40 basis points. Our ECL charge this quarter includes $0.2 billion Hong Kong commercial real estate. On slide 19, you will see we have updated the Hong Kong commercial real estate slide we showed you at the half year.

現在我們來談談信用。ECL 為 10 億美元，與去年同期持平，較第二季略有下降。我們維持先前約 40 個基點的預期信用損失 (ECL) 指引。本季我們的預期信用損失費用包括 2 億美元的香港商業房地產。在第 19 張投影片中，您會看到我們更新了我們在半年會議上向您展示的香港商業房地產幻燈片。

Other charges include $150 million from a Middle East-based customer, $0.3 billion in the UK, $0.2 billion in Mexico, and a $0.1 billion release due to improved economic assumptions.

其他費用包括來自中東客戶的 1.5 億美元、英國的 3 億美元、墨西哥的 2 億美元，以及因經濟預期改善而釋放的 1 億美元。

Now let's turn to costs. We remain on track to achieve our target of around 3% cost growth in 2025 compared to 2024 on a target basis. Year-to-date, we have taken actions to realize $1 billion of annualized simplification savings with no meaningful impact on revenues. We continue to expect $0.4 billion simplification savings to be realized in the full year 2025 P&L.

現在我們來看看成本。我們仍有望實現2025年成本成長比2024年成長約3%的目標。今年迄今為止，我們已採取措施，實現了每年 10 億美元的簡化成本節約，而對收入沒有產生實質影響。我們仍預計在 2025 年全年損益表中實現 4 億美元的簡化節省。

It's worth noting that there is some slight seasonality to costs in the fourth quarter, which also includes the UK bank levy. This quarter, we have $1.4 billion of legal provisions on historical matters, which don't impact our ongoing business. They consist of $1.1 billion, as you will have seen in yesterday's announcement relating to Madoff litigation, which is a material notable item and, therefore, does not impact any dividend, and $0.3 billion related to historical trading activities in Europe, which is a notable item.

值得注意的是，第四季的成本存在一些季節性波動，其中也包括英國銀行稅。本季度，我們為歷史遺留事項提列了 14 億美元的法律準備金，這些準備金不會影響我們正在進行的業務。其中包括 11 億美元（如您在昨天有關麥道夫訴訟的公告中所看到的），這是一項重大事項，因此不會影響任何股息；以及 3 億美元（與歐洲的歷史交易活動有關），這是一項重大事項。

I would also just draw your attention to Appendix slides 16 and 17, where we detail recent and potential future notable items. This leads us to our exit of non-strategic activities, which we will discuss on the next slide.

我還想提請您注意附錄投影片 16 和 17，其中詳細介紹了近期和未來可能出現的重要事項。這就引出了我們退出非策略性活動的問題，我們將在下一張投影片中討論這個問題。

We are progressing at pace. With our exit of non-strategic activities, this slide sets out that progress. The red boxes show the exits announced in each quarter; the gray, those in prior quarters. Given the phasing of the sale processes, only Grupo Galicia is currently complete with others to follow. In the third quarter, we have announced Malta and retail banking in Sri Lanka.

我們正在快速推進。隨著我們退出非策略性活動，這張投影片展示了這項進展。紅色方框表示每季宣布的離職情況；灰色方框表示前幾季宣布的離職情況。鑑於出售流程分階段進行，目前只有 Grupo Galicia 的出售完成，其他出售將陸續完成。第三季度，我們宣布了在馬耳他和斯里蘭卡開展零售銀行業務的消息。

Last week, we announced that we are conducting a strategic review of our Egyptian retail banking business. As I said earlier, the review will not include our wholesale banking activities in Egypt, which remains an important market. As a reminder, costs released from the exits of a non-strategic activities will be invested in our priority growth areas at accretive returns.

上週，我們宣布將對埃及零售銀行業務進行策略評估。正如我之前所說，這次審查將不包括我們在埃及的批發銀行業務，埃及仍然是一個重要的市場。再次提醒大家，從非策略性活動退出中釋放出來的成本將投資於我們優先成長的領域，以獲得增值回報。

Now let's turn to customer deposits and loans. Including held-for-sale balances, we've had another strong quarter with $86 billion of growth in deposits in the last 12 months. By business, there is some volatility this quarter. Silver bond subscriptions in Hong Kong moved deposits from Hong Kong business to CIB for a few days over quarter end, benefiting CIB balances. CIB also benefited with -- from some large client deposits, which may be short dated. Overall, we see good momentum in our customer deposit franchise.

現在我們來看看客戶存款和貸款。包括待售餘額在內，我們又迎來了一個強勁的季度，過去 12 個月存款增加了 860 億美元。從業務方面來看，本季存在一定的波動性。在季度末的幾天裡，香港的白銀債券認購將存款從香港業務轉移到企業及投資銀行，從而使企業及投資銀行的餘額受益。CIB 也從一些大額客戶存款中受益，這些存款的期限可能很短。整體而言，我們的客戶存款業務發展勢頭良好。

In the UK, lending was the standout. We saw continued growth in mortgages and our commercial lending book. Infrastructure being a key area of focus. In our UK business, the book has grown 5% year-over-year, which includes a drag from the repayment of COVID loans.

在英國，貸款業務表現優異。我們看到抵押貸款和商業貸款業務持續成長。基礎設施建設是重點關注領域。在英國，我們的業務年增了 5%，其中包括因償還新冠疫情貸款而造成的拖累。

We see low levels of household and corporate debt in the UK, which we expect to provide a platform for the continued growth of our franchise. In Hong Kong, we saw customer repayments and corporate deleveraging notably in the commercial real estate space. Credit demand remains muted.

我們看到英國的家庭和企業債務水平較低，我們預計這將為我們的特許經營業務的持續增長提供平台。在香港，我們看到客戶還款和企業去槓桿化現像在商業房地產領域尤其明顯。信貸需求依然疲軟。

Now turning to capital. Our CET1 is 14.5%, reflecting strong organic capital generation during the quarter. We said with the announcement of the Hang Seng offer that we do not expect buybacks for the next three quarters. That is, of course, dependent on underlying capital generation. With strong profitability and currently modest loan growth, we are highly capital generative.

現在來談談資本。我們的 CET1 為 14.5%，反映了本季強勁的內生資本成長。我們在宣布恆生指數的股票回購計畫時就說過，我們預期未來三個季度不會進行股票回購。當然，這取決於基礎資本的產生。憑藉著強勁的獲利能力和目前適度的貸款成長，我們擁有強大的資本創造能力。

Finally, let's turn to targets and guidance. In summary, the intent with which we are executing our strategy is reflected in the growth and momentum in our performance this quarter. It again shows discipline, performance and delivery. Discipline in the way we are applying strong cost control. We are on target to achieve our target of around 3% cost growth in 2025 compared to 2024 on a target basis.

最後，我們來談談目標和指導方針。總而言之，我們執行策略的決心體現在本季業績的成長和動能。這再次展現了紀律性、執行力和效率。我們在實施嚴格的成本控制方面展現了嚴謹的作風。我們預計將實現2025年成本成長目標，與2024年相比，成本成長目標約為3%。

Our simplification saves are ahead of our previous expectation. We have announced 11 exits so far this year. We will continue to progress at pace and invest costs released from exits into priority growth areas. Performance in our earnings. Each of our four businesses is making mid-teens RoTE or better, excluding notable items.

簡化流程帶來的節省超出了我們先前的預期。今年到目前為止，我們已經宣布了11項退出計畫。我們將繼續保持快速發展，並將退出所得節省的成本投資於優先成長領域。我們的獲利表現。除特殊項目外，我們四家企業的資本報酬率均達到或超過 15 個百分點。

Delivery, our third quarter results show that we are creating a simple, more agile growing HSBC. Revenues grew and excluding notable items, our year-to-date 17.6% RoTE demonstrates that we are delivering against the targets we set out to you. That is why we expect 2025 RoTE, excluding notable items to be mid-teens or better.

從交付方面來看，我們第三季的業績表明，我們正在打造一個更簡潔、更靈活、不斷發展的匯豐銀行。營收成長，剔除重大專案後，我們今年迄今的17.6%的股東回報率表明，我們正在實現我們向您設定的目標。因此，我們預計 2025 年 RoTE（不包括重要項目）將達到 15% 或更高。

With that, I'm happy to take your questions.

那麼，我很樂意回答你們的問題。

(Operator Instructions) Aman Rakkar, Barclays.

（操作說明）Aman Rakkar，巴克萊銀行。

I wanted to ask about banking NII rather predictably, please. So just at face value, your guide does imply a decent step off in interest income in Q4. But I don't think that you really mean that. I just wanted to kind of check in around what your expectations are for net interest income in kind of Q4. I guess I'm particularly mindful of the tailwind from average HIBOR in the quarter alongside things like the structural hedge and hopefully, balance sheet momentum. My best guess is that Q4 NII is actually up QonQ. But any color you can give us there in terms of what you mean and what the drivers are, would be very helpful.

我想問一下關於銀行淨利息收入的問題，這應該是在意料之中。所以僅從表面上看，你的指南確實暗示第四季度利息收入將大幅下降。但我認為你並非真心這麼想。我只是想了解一下您對第四季淨利息收入的預期。我特別關注季度平均 HIBOR 帶來的利多因素，以及結構性對沖和資產負債表成長動能等因素。我估計第四季度淨利息收入環比實際上有所增長。如果您能就您的意思和驅動因素提供一些具體的解釋，那將非常有幫助。

And then the second question is around deposits. And I'm interested in your take on the sustainability of the kind of current 5% underlying deposit growth that you're benefiting from at a system level. Obviously, Hong Kong year-to-date has been a key driver of that. And how sustainable do you think this level of pace is? And what confidence does it give you around things like net interest income growth next year?

第二個問題是關於存款的。我很想聽聽您對目前5%的存款成長率（您在系統層面上從中受益）的可持續性有何看法。顯然，香港今年迄今的表現是推動這一趨勢的關鍵因素。你認為這種發展速度能夠持續多久？這讓你對明年的淨利息收入成長等問題有多大信心？

Thank you, Aman. So firstly, on banking NII. I want to say that we are not walking back the Q4 as a starter. As the maths would show, we are saying that the banking NII would be no less than $10.6 billion. So absolutely, that's why it is $43 billion or better. And you are quite right from a balance sheet momentum, we see that continuing from the third quarter onwards, albeit there can be a few seasonality fluctuations. HIBOR is a tailwind, structural hedge is a tailwind, but we should be mindful that the US dollar rate curve will be a headwind. So that's where we are on banking NII.

謝謝你，阿曼。首先，我們來談談銀行淨利息收入。我想說，我們不會推翻第四季的開局。從數學計算結果來看，我們認為銀行業淨利息收入不會低於 106 億美元。所以，絕對的，這就是為什麼它的價值會達到或超過 430 億美元。您說的完全正確，從資產負債表的成長勢頭來看，我們看到這種情況從第三季開始持續，儘管可能會有一些季節性波動。夏威夷銀行間同業拆借利率（HIBOR）和結構性避險都是利多因素，但我們應該注意美元利率曲線將構成不利因素。這就是我們目前在銀行業淨利息收入方面的情況。

In terms of deposits, and as you know, we are not giving a guidance on banking NII for 2026, but our deposit franchise is very strong across all markets, all currencies, all business areas. So it's not just dependent on Hong Kong dollars. But of course, we are very pleased with our pre-eminent position and strength in Hong Kong, which is a key driving force for the deposit growth. So very positive on deposit growth from here on as we've had before.

就存款而言，如您所知，我們不會對 2026 年的銀行淨利息收入做出預測，但我們的存款業務在所有市場、所有貨幣、所有業務領域都非常強勁。所以它不只取決於港元。當然，我們對在香港的卓越地位和實力感到非常滿意，這是存款成長的關鍵驅動力。因此，我們對存款成長前景非常樂觀，就像之前一樣。

Guy Stebbings, BNP Paribas.

Guy Stebbings，法國巴黎銀行。

The first one was back on bank NII then one on insurance. So obviously, quite a (technical difficulty) our guidance. Outside of HIBOR, is it really the deposit strength that's the delta in terms of the guidance here? I mean you also referenced yield curve steepening. So I'm just wondering if you would encouraged to think about anything above and beyond the structural hedge roll when you think about yield curve steepening when it comes to NII?

第一份是關於銀行淨利息收入的，第二份是關於保險的。所以很明顯，我們的指導遇到了相當大的（技術難題）。除了HIBOR之外，存款實力真的是影響利率指引的主要因素嗎？我的意思是，你也提到了殖利率曲線陡峭化的問題。所以我想知道，在考慮淨利息收入殖利率曲線陡峭化時，除了結構性對沖滾動之外，您是否還會考慮其他因素？

And then on insurance, really strong quarter, but there's quite a lot going on there, I think, so 46% growth. But you mentioned model changes, experience variance. And then if you can help quantify that, I think there might have been $150 million or so type model changes. I mean if that's the case, we're still talking about a sort of 20% clean run rate. So if you'd encourage us to think along those sorts of lines in the CSF now at $50 billion, it looks like a very sort of useful underpin from here.

然後是保險業，本季表現非常強勁，但我認為這裡有很多事情正在發生，所以成長了 46%。但你提到了模型變更和經驗差異。如果你能幫忙量化一下，我認為可能涉及大約 1.5 億美元的車型變更。我的意思是，如果真是那樣的話，我們說的仍然是大約 20% 的清潔運行率。所以，如果您鼓勵我們按照這種思路來思考，那麼現在 500 億美元的 CSF 看起來將是一個非常有用的基礎。

And if I can sort of briefly follow up on that. There was $1.1 billion of CSM build year-to-date from economic factors. I'm just interested how much of that is sort of purely lumpy items? Some of your peers show the normalized unwind or expected return of in-force, which can be sort of quite material and a consistent tailwind to the CSM built above and beyond the new business systems. So I'm just wondering whether we should treat that $1.1 billion boosters very much one-off or an element of that is repeatable, if you like.

如果我能簡單補充一下的話。受經濟因素影響，今年迄今，CSM（中央空間管理）建設投資金額已達11億美元。我只是好奇其中有多少是純粹的塊狀物？一些同行展示了正常化的解散或預期的回歸，這可能相當重要，並且對在新業務系統之上建立的 CSM 來說是一個持續的順風。所以我想知道，我們應該把這11億美元的資金投入視為一次性的，還是其中一部分可以重複使用。

Okay. Great. Thank you, Guy. So firstly, in coming -- so with your question on banking NII. So it's -- our deposits strength, as I've called out, but our structural hedge is also important tailwind for us on banking NII and the stabilization of HIBOR, which impacted banking NII almost equivalently on the negative side in Q2 and Q3, is not expected for Q4 and has not shown that at all in Q4 so far.

好的。偉大的。謝謝你，蓋伊。首先，關於您提出的銀行淨利息收入（NII）問題。所以，正如我之前提到的，我們的存款實力是重要的利好因素，但我們的結構性對沖也是我們銀行業淨利息收入的重要順風，而HIBOR的穩定化（HIBOR在第二季度和第三季度對銀行業淨利息收入的影響幾乎相同，均為負面因素）預計不會在第四季度出現，而且到目前為止，第四季度也完全沒有出現這種情況。

The insurance growth, you're again right, it's -- the one-offs are circa $150 million, as you've called out in terms of the change in assumptions, which is a normalized annual process that we go through. So we are very pleased with a very strong CSM and balance build, which gives the underpin in terms of the growth in this business.

保險業的成長，你又說對了——一次性增長大約為 1.5 億美元，正如你指出的，這是由於假設的變化造成的，而這是我們每年都要經歷的正常過程。因此，我們對強大的客戶成功率和均衡的架構感到非常滿意，這為該業務的成長奠定了基礎。

In terms of any one-offs or lumpy items, nothing material to note, but I'll ask our IR team to follow-up with you. You can see (technical difficulty) slide 21.

至於任何一次性或大宗項目，沒有什麼實質性的事情需要注意，但我會讓我們的投資者關係團隊與您跟進。您可以看到（技術難題）第 21 張投影片。

(technical difficulty)

（技術難題）

I also have a follow-up on NII and then I would like to ask about Hong Kong CRE. On the NII line, I noticed that in Hong Kong the composite deposit rate actually comes significantly in 3Q. I think this is because that this move -- the migration from time deposit to demand deposits and also that banks generally lower the time deposit deposit rates. So into 3Q -- into the 4Q because of the rebound in -- because of the rebound in (technical difficulty) reversal of that decline in composite deposit cost? Will that lead to some sort of risk to the banking NII? This is number one question.

我還有一個關於NII的後續問題，然後我想諮詢一下香港商業地產的情況。在淨利息收入方面，我注意到香港的綜合存款利率實際上在第三季度出現了顯著增長。我認為這是因為這種從定期存款到活期存款的轉移，以及銀行普遍降低定期存款利率的現象。所以，由於（技術難題）反彈，第三季到第四季度，綜合存款成本的下降趨勢逆轉？這是否會對銀行淨利息收入造成某種風險？這是首要問題。

And then have we seen any like further migrations or what's the trends of deposits in CASA deposits? And then the next question will be in Hong Kong CRE. We noticed that the Stage 3 loan ratio increased from 16% to 20%, but however, if we look at the impairment charges on Hong Kong CRE, this quarter is actually lower than that of last quarter. So I would like to have some color from management say, for example, what is the latest trend in terms of the asset quality? And what is our thought behind that while the Stage 3 loan ratio continue to increase, but then we slow (technical difficulty) against Hong Kong CRE risk.

那麼，我們是否觀察到進一步的遷移，或者CASA礦​​床的沉積趨勢是什麼？接下來的問題將涉及香港房地產。我們注意到第三階段貸款比率從 16% 上升到 20%，但是，如果我們看一下香港商業房地產的減損準備，本季實際上低於上個季度。所以我想聽聽管理階層的意見，例如，資產品質的最新趨勢是什麼？我們這樣做的想法是什麼？雖然第三階段貸款比例持續上升，但我們卻因技術困難而放緩了對香港商業房地產風險的應對。

Thank you, Katherine. So in terms of HIBOR, it continues to be a tailwind from a deposit perspective, we see the trends from sort of prior quarters continuing to Q4, so nothing much to call out there. Specifically, yeah, there has been some small rise in time deposits, but that is all factored in terms of our banking NII guidance. And I'm speaking both from what we saw at the end of the September as well as the ongoing trend.

謝謝你，凱瑟琳。因此，就HIBOR而言，從存款角度來看，它仍然是一個利好因素，我們看到前幾季的趨勢延續到了第四季度，所以沒有什麼特別值得一提的。具體來說，定期存款確實略有成長，但這都已計入我們的銀行淨利息收入預期。我指的是我們在九月底看到的情況以及目前的趨勢。

The banking NII, as I've said earlier, in addition to HIBOR, the structural hedge also continues to be a tailwind for us. And that is the reason why we have obviously upgraded our banking NII guidance. And you know we are very conservative in HSBC. It takes a lot for us to upgrade the guidance and also to add the word or better. So take from that what you will.

正如我之前所說，除了HIBOR之外，銀行業淨利息收入（NII）以及結構性對沖也繼續為我們帶來利多。正因如此，我們才調高了銀行業淨利息收入預期。你知道，匯豐銀行的行事風格非常保守。我們需要付出很多努力才能改進指導方針，並添加“或更好”這樣的詞語。所以，你自己從中領悟吧。

In terms of Hong Kong commercial real estate, I would like to (technical difficulty) in terms of residential properties, the trend has stabilized and is getting stronger. The resi property index has grown 2% year-to-date. September (technical difficulty) have grown since May and are up 4% year-on-year in August. It is also underpinned by increase in year-to-date tourist arrivals of 12% year-on-year.

就香港商業房地產而言，我想（技術性問題）就住宅地產而言，趨勢已經穩定並且正在走強。今年迄今為止，住宅地產指數增加了2%。9 月（技術難度）較 5 月成長，8 月年增 4%。此外，今年迄今的遊客造訪量年增 12%，也印證了這一點。

Now if I look at the office sector, of course, the office sector continues to be challenging and under pressure, and we expect that to continue through most of next year as well. However, there has been a slight uptick for take-up for grade A office space. So this is in the best locations with the best specs and that is an improvement, which we see quarter-on-quarter.

現在，如果我看一下辦公大樓市場，當然，辦公大樓市場仍然面臨挑戰和壓力，我們預計這種情況在明年大部分時間也會持續下去。然而，甲級辦公室的租賃需求略有上升。所以，這些產品擁有最佳的地理位置和規格，這是一個進步，我們每季都能看到這種進步。

As you know, our portfolio is well collateralized. This quarter, of course, there was some slippage, which is expected as part of our review with [media] as things move through from some good to satisfactory, substandard to impaired, but there were names which you are aware of, no big surprises. And hence, the ECL pickup was relatively modest.

如您所知，我們的投資組合有充足的抵押品。當然，本季度出現了一些下滑，這是我們與[媒體]進行審查的一部分，因為情況會從良好到合格，再到不合格到受損，但其中一些名字你們都知道，沒有什麼大的意外。因此，ECL 的成長相對溫和。

Ben Toms, RBC.

本·湯姆斯，RBC。

In relation to the $1.1 billion provision in relation to Madoff litigation, these (technical difficulty) ongoing cases with a cumulative total contingent liability of I think 5 billion. Can you just provide the case that was decided last week does not set any legal precedent for the other four cases, especially the three cases that are in the Luxembourg courts where there's a more material exposure? And can you confirm that the litigation charge does not change your aspiration to resume the buyback at half one '26?

關於與麥道夫訴訟相關的 11 億美元準備金，這些（技術上有困難）正在進行的案件累計或有負債總額我認為是 50 億美元。您能否提供一下上週判決的案例，該案例並未對其他四起案件，特別是盧森堡法院審理的三起案件（這些案件涉及的實質性風險更大），構成任何法律先例？您能否確認，訴訟費用不會改變您在 2026 年 1 月 1 日恢復股票回購的意願？

And then on slide 10, which is a really nice slide, you made 11 disposals year-to-date. It can be quite difficult sometimes to track the transactions coming out of the P&L. Is it possible to give us some idea of the annualized cumulative PBT lost as a result of these sales? Although the transactions may be RoTE positive together, it'd just be good to get a sense of the PBT headwind going into next year?

然後在第 10 張投影片上（這是一張非常精彩的幻燈片），你今年迄今為止完成了 11 次處理。有時很難追蹤損益表中的交易。能否估算一下這些銷售造成的年度累計稅前利潤損失？儘管這些交易加起來可能對資本報酬率（RoTE）產生正面影響，但最好還是了解明年稅前利潤（PBT）面臨的不利因素？

Okay. Thank you, Ben. So firstly, on the Madoff litigation provision charge, you can expect that we did a thorough exercise with advice from internal, external counsel as well as colleagues in the accounting function to determine what would be our best judgment on this case. In terms of the other cases (technical difficulty) but each case has very distinct factual considerations. (technical difficulty) already called out as disclosures in the midyear. So please don't read more into that. As you know, on this (technical difficulty)element of the case, but it was the securities element that we are providing against.

好的。謝謝你，本。首先，關於麥道夫訴訟準備金指控，您可以預期，我們已在內部和外部律師以及會計部門同事的建議下進行了徹底的評估，以確定我們對該案件的最佳判斷。至於其他案件（技術難度較高），但每個案件都有非常不同的事實考量。 （技術難度較高）已在年中揭露。所以請不要過度解讀。如您所知，本案存在技術難題，但我們針對的是證券問題。

In terms of our share buyback and announcements at the time of Hang Seng privatization offer, as you can imagine, this case has been pending for a while. We had looked at all kinds of downside scenarios. So when we came with our view of suspension of share buyback for the Hang Seng offer for up to three quarters, we still stand behind that number. That was all included.

至於我們在恆生私有化要約期間的股份回購和公告，正如您所想，此事已經擱置了一段時間。我們已經考慮過各種不利情況。所以，當我們提出暫停恆生股份回購計畫最多三個季度的觀點時，我們仍然堅持這個數字。以上所有費用都包含在內。

As you know well, we will go through a rigorous process every quarter. We continue to be highly capital generative as you've seen with also the upgrades on our guidance. And once we look at that, we see where the organic growth opportunities are. Obviously, in organic, that's where the Hang Seng privatization offer comes in and then the residual after obviously, looking at the 50% dividend payout, which is a key element of our capital distribution, then we look at share buybacks. So I don't expect any headwinds in that, the up to three quarters.

如您所知，我們每季都會進行嚴格的審核流程。正如您所看到的，我們持續保持著強勁的資本創造能力，這也體現在我們上調了業績預期。一旦我們審視這一點，就能發現有機成長的機會。顯然，在有機成長方面，這就是恆生私有化要約的切入點，然後剩餘部分顯然會考慮 50% 的股息支付，這是我們資本分配的關鍵要素，然後我們會考慮股票回購。因此，我預計在四分之三的時間內不會遇到任何阻力。

(technical difficulty) 11 disposals, I note to your point, these are all relatively, as you can see, small disposals. What is very important is each time disposal happens and it's complete like we had the Grupo Galicia, but also as we did with the closure of the investment bank. We immediately reinvest, and the kind of areas we've invested, and we've actually seen the benefits come through is, we have invested in the UK. And as you see, we have seen some loan growth in the UK.

（技術難題）11 次處理，我注意到你指出的這一點，這些都是相對較小的處理，正如你所看到的。非常重要的一點是，每次處置都要徹底，就像我們處置加利西亞集團一樣，也像我們關閉投資銀行一樣。我們立即進行再投資，我們投資的領域，以及我們已經看到收益的領域，是英國。正如你所看到的，英國的貸款市場出現了一些成長。

We have invested in Wealth, both in the UK and Asia and the Middle East. And of course, the numbers speak for themselves. But also, we take very specific opportunities where we see either growth in volumes or new customer mandates as we saw in security services so that we can be in a prime position to take those opportunities. So that's an ongoing piece of work. We don't stop at the end of each quarter or regularly to see what we need to reinvest. As soon as we have the money available, we reinvest.

我們已在英國、亞洲和中東地區投資了財富管理專案。當然，數據本身就能說明一切。此外，我們也會抓住一些非常具體的機會，例如業務量成長或新客戶委託項目，就像我們在安防服務領域看到的那樣，以便我們能夠處於有利地位，抓住這些機會。所以這是一項正在進行的工作。我們不會在每個季度末或定期停下來查看我們需要再投資哪些方面。一旦資金到位，我們就進行再投資。

Joe Dickerson, Jefferies.

喬‧迪克森，傑富瑞集團。

Great. I just -- it's just more of a conceptual question really in terms of the return profile of the bank. I guess why isn't this a -- why isn't HSBC post Hang Seng integration more of a high-teens bank than a mid-teens bank? I mean, clearly, the exit rate for this year on banking NII is going to be much higher, I think, than what most analysts would have thought, particularly given that the HIBOR move. You only had about six weeks of that embedded in Q3. So you get a full quarter of that in Q4.

偉大的。我只是——這其實更多的是一個關於銀行回報狀況的概念性問題。我想知道為什麼匯豐銀行在與恆生銀行合併後，股價不是十幾美元，而是十幾美元？我的意思是，很明顯，今年銀行業淨利息收入的退出率將會比大多數分析師預想的要高得多，特別是考慮到HIBOR的變動。第三季你只有大約六週的時間來完成那部分。所以你在第四季能拿到其中四分之一。

And effectively, you feed that through to next year. And yeah, you can have lower rates, but ultimately, you probably have a structurally higher banking NII given the deposit mix. And then if you look at your invested assets in Wealth, you clearly have a strong business there that continues to grow and the marginal ROE is much higher and throwing Hang Seng, you're 70, 80 bps just from the minority deduction. I guess why don't we get to a number that's in the high teens here as opposed to mid-teens?

實際上，你會把這種情況延續到下一年。是的，你可以獲得較低的利率，但考慮到存款結構，最終你的銀行淨利息收入可能會更高。然後，如果你看一下你在財富管理方面的投資資產，很明顯，你在那裡擁有一個強勁的業務，並且該業務還在持續增長，邊際淨資產收益率要高得多，拋開恆生指數，僅僅少數股東權益扣除，你就能獲得 70、80 個基點的收益。我想，為什麼我們不能把這個數字提高到十幾，而不是十幾呢？

Thank you, Joe. It's a really good question. As you can imagine, we and the bank obviously reflect on this very closely as well. And you'd see that we have upgraded, obviously, our guidance for this year. But let me just remind you, when we came up with our target of mid-teens RoTE for the medium term, '25, '26, '27. That's a target.

謝謝你，喬。這真是個好問題。正如您所想，我們和銀行顯然也會對此進行非常認真的思考。很明顯，我們已經提高了今年的業績預期。但我想提醒您，當我們提出中期目標為 2025 年、2026 年、2027 年達到十幾歲 R​​oTE 時。那是一個目標。

There's nothing that says that you will stop working once you achieve the target. You continue to work to both achieve to target as well as to improve on the target. In terms of the target itself, we are not making any change. We will, of course, reflect on it as we go through our year-end results and go into next year and give greater details on our forward-looking guidance.

沒有任何規定說達到目標後你就可以停止工作。你們繼續努力，既要實現目標，又要超越目標。就目標本身而言，我們不會做出任何改變。當然，我們會在總結年終業績、展望明年時對此進行反思，並對我們的未來展望做出更詳細的說明。

But just remember, a target is something that you have to achieve or better, target is not where you stop.

但請記住，目標是你必須達成的，或者更確切地說，目標不是你停下來的地方。

Kendra Yan, CICC.

Kendra Yan，中金公司。

My question -- my first question is regarding to the Wealth management revenue. We've observed a very rapid (technical difficulty) my second question concerns in recent weeks, we've seen some risk involving the US market, like the small and medium-sized banks in the US, they have some risk. And also, the JPMorgan, they cautious the market about the credit risk during its earnings call. Although HSBC's primary client base is not in this segment, but I -- still I'd like to ask whether HSBC has any exposure or concern in loans to non-bank financial institutions or say, those private credit corporate sector?

我的問題——我的第一個問題是關於財富管理收入的。我們觀察到最近幾週出現了非常迅速的（技術困難），我的第二個問題涉及美國市場的一些風險，例如美國的中小型銀行，它們面臨一些風險。此外，摩根大通在財報電話會議上也提醒市場注意信用風險。雖然匯豐銀行的主要客戶群不在這個領域，但我還是想問一下，匯豐銀行是否對非銀行金融機構或私人信貸企業部門的貸款有任何風險敞口或擔憂？

Thank you, Kendra. Two really good questions. So firstly, in terms of wealth, we are very comfortable with our medium-term guidance of a double-digit growth in fees, though obviously, quarter-on-quarter, it can vary. So what has been really strong this year has been investment distribution notably in Hong Kong and strong equity volumes. As I said earlier, our insurance business has continued to grow, and that momentum is helped both in terms of existing client base, but also the new clients we are onboarding in Hong Kong, in particular.

謝謝你，肯德拉。兩個非常好的問題。首先，就財富而言，我們對中期費用兩位數成長的預期非常有信心，儘管顯然，季度環比可能會有所不同。今年表現強勁的是投資分配，尤其是香港的投資分配和強勁的股票交易量。正如我之前所說，我們的保險業務持續成長，這種成長動能既得益於現有客戶群，也得益於我們在香港等地不斷拓展的新客戶。

Obviously, strong equity markets have been favorable, and that becomes a lever for Wealth in terms of both the sentiment and the activity we see. But overall, not changing our guidance, but very optimistic for Wealth in future, as seen from Q3 results. And of course, be mindful there are some seasonal fluctuations, Q4 can be a little less, and Q1 more, but we'll see how it progresses. So far, all on a very good trajectory.

顯然，強勁的股市對投資人有利，這成為影響市場情緒和投資活動的槓桿。但整體而言，我們不會改變業績指引，而且從第三季業績來看，我們對財富的未來非常樂觀。當然，也要注意一些季節性波動，第四季可能會略少一些，第一季可能會多一些，但我們會看看情況如何發展。目前來看，一切都朝著非常好的方向發展。

From a credit risk perspective, and as you can appreciate, I've been a Chief Risk Officer for five years. So indulge me, I'll share my thoughts on that with you. Private credit as a sector, of course, is going to have stronger players and weaker players. What is very key is how you do the due diligence and what are the kind of underwriting standards you apply in this new area. You are quite right. This is primarily US-driven, 80% a US-driven business, and our footprint in US is relatively small.

從信用風險的角度來看，正如您所了解的，我擔任首席風險長已有五年時間。請容許我分享一下我的想法。私人信貸產業當然會有實力較強的參與者和實力較弱的參與者。關鍵在於你如何進行盡職調查，以及你在這個新領域應用什麼樣的核保標準。你說得完全正確。這家公司主要由美國企業驅動，80%的業務由美國企業驅動，但我們在美國的業務規模相對較小。

All I can tell you is that our direct exposure in the private credit space is single billion dollars. We apply the same strong credit underwriting principles there. So I'm very comfortable in that space. What I do want to call out is, you're right, it is always the second and the third order risk that you should be very mindful of, which are not your direct exposures, but exposures you may have through weaker counterparties.

我只能告訴你，我們在私募信用領域的直接風險敞口為10億美元。我們在那裡也採用同樣的嚴格信貸審核原則。所以我在這個領域感到非常自在。我想強調的是，你說得對，你始終應該非常注意第二和第三階風險，這些風險並非你的直接風險敞口，而是你可能透過實力較弱的交易對手承擔的風險敞口。

We have always taken a very conservative view in terms of our exposures to smaller banks, regional banks in the US and elsewhere. We've been doing that right through the COVID period, through Russia, Ukraine, through inflation, high interest rates, so on as well as exposure to smaller hedge funds.

對於我們對美國及其他地區小型銀行和區域性銀行的投資，我們一直採取非常保守的態度。在整個新冠疫情期間，我們一直都在這樣做，經歷了俄羅斯、烏克蘭的動盪，經歷了通貨膨脹、高利率等等，以及對小型對沖基金的投資。

Having said that, we closely monitor this space because you can never get too comfortable in this space, and good risk management really means looking forward to see what else can impact the overall ecosystem, which then can cause indirectly concerns to all participants.

話雖如此，我們仍密切關注這一領域，因為在這個領域你永遠不能掉以輕心，良好的風險管理實際上意味著要展望未來，看看還有哪些因素會影響整個生態系統，進而間接地給所有參與者帶來擔憂。

Kian Abouhossein, JPMorgan.

Kian Abouhossein，摩根大通。

Just to come back on the NBFI exposure because you mentioned private credit just now a single digit. NBFI would be similar. Clearly, you get your US legal entity exposures as well as the branches, which is below $10 billion. So should we see that as overall group exposure roughly for total NBFI, can you confirm that?

我再來談談非銀行金融機構的風險敞口，因為你剛才提到了私人信貸，佔比是個位數。非銀行金融機構的情況也類似。顯然，您需要承擔美國法律實體及其分支機構的風險敞口，該敞口低於 100 億美元。那麼，我們是否應該將此視為非銀行金融機構整體的整體風險敞口，您能確認一下嗎？

And then secondly, on tariff scenarios, you gave a impact scenario or sensitivity scenario of low single digit on group revenues before. Clearly, things have changed, but also that was on a very specific part of your business. So I'm just trying to understand how you're thinking about impact scenario going forward in the current situation and expectation of a trade deal? And secondly, also what the impact has been so far?

其次，關於關稅方案，您之前曾給出過一個影響方案或敏感性方案，即對集團收入產生個位數百分比的影響。顯然，情況發生了變化，但這只是指你業務中非常具體的部分。所以我想了解一下，在當前情況下，您是如何看待未來可能出現的影響情景，以及您對達成貿易協議的預期？其次，到目前為止，其影響是什麼？

So let me come through the NBF exposures. As you can appreciate, NBF is a very broad industry. My comment on our disciplined and conservative approach to weaker NBFI's holes. So from an exposure perspective, both in terms of quantum that I've called out and beyond, I am very comfortable in terms of our approach to date as well as going forward.

那麼就讓我來詳細介紹一下NBF的曝光情況。正如您所了解的，NBF 是一個非常廣泛的行業。我對我們以嚴謹保守的方式處理實力較弱的非銀行金融機構的漏洞發表看法。因此，從曝光的角度來看，無論是我提到的量子領域還是其他領域，我對我們迄今為止的方法以及未來的發展方向都感到非常滿意。

For the tariffs exposure and the impact, as you've seen, the trade segment has continued to perform well. We have the advantage that as much as there is an impact on US dollar-related corridors. There are other corridors which are growing, which we have a strong presence in, whether it's India, UK, Middle East, Asia, Intra Asia. So that's been quite good for us. So overall, guidance that we've given on the direct impact of tariffs has not changed.

就關稅風險和影響而言，正如你所看到的，貿易板塊繼續表現良好。我們的優勢在於，儘管這對美元相關通道產生了影響。還有其他一些正在發展的走廊，我們在這些走廊中擁有強大的影響力，無論是印度、英國、中東、亞洲或亞洲內部。所以這對我們來說相當不錯。因此，整體而言，我們針對關稅直接影響所作出的指導意見並沒有改變。

And of course, we look at that as part of our downside risk scenarios even for the ECLs. From an overall view on the macro environment with all the trade deals being done, I'll just give one reflection that our probabilities that we give to our upside, downside and base case scenarios have now normalized, and that's resulted in some modest releases of ECLs because we think the situation is improving compared to where they were more weighted towards the downside (technical difficulty)

當然，即使是對於預期信用損失（ECL），我們也會將其視為下行風險情境的一部分。從宏觀環境的整體角度來看，考慮到所有貿易協議的達成，我只想指出一點：我們對上行、下行和基本情景的機率估計現在已經趨於正常化，這導致預期信用損失（ECL）的釋放幅度有所放緩，因為我們認為情況正在好轉，而此前我們的預期信用損失估計更多地偏向於下行風險。（技術難題）

(Operator Instructions) Amit Goel, Mediobanca.

（操作說明）Amit Goel，Mediobanca。

So two questions for me. The first, just on the UK business. It looked like there's a bit more investment and there was also a little bit of a tick up in the impairment rate versus prior quarters. So just wanted to check what kind of investments you're making there for what kind of opportunity? And then on the impairment, what's driving that?

我有兩個問題。第一件事，僅涉及英國的業務。看起來投資有所增加，但與前幾季相比，減損率也略有上升。所以我想了解一下，你們在那裡進行的是哪種類型的投資，是為了抓住什麼樣的機會？那麼，造成這種損害的原因是什麼呢？

And then the second one is just a follow-up on the Madoff litigation. I'm just kind of curious what is really the range of outcomes? I know obviously, it says that it could be materially different to the provision. There are a lot of kind of numbers in the release. So just curious how you see that range? And I was also kind of curious why a provision wasn't taken in December '24 when you had the original ruling that went against?

第二篇報導只是麥道夫訴訟案的後續報導。我只是有點好奇，實際上可能出現的結果範圍到底有哪些？我知道，它明確指出這可能與規定有實質差異。新聞稿中包含許多類型的數字。所以我很好奇您是如何看待這個範圍的？我也很好奇，為什麼在 2024 年 12 月，當你們最初的裁決對你們不利時，沒有採取任何措施？

Okay. Thank you, Amit. So first, on the UK business, we have continued to invest for wealth, both in terms of hiring of RMs to grow our premier customer numbers and to sell more Wealth product for the customers who we already have very strong deposit base with. We are also investing as we've opened a new Wealth center in the UK in this space. And then business banking has been important for us for investing in, in terms of customer service, customer journeys, and that's primarily a liability-driven business.

好的。謝謝你，阿米特。首先，就英國業務而言，我們一直在繼續投資財富管理，包括招募客戶經理以增加我們的優質客戶數量，以及向我們已經擁有非常強大存款基礎的客戶銷售更多財富產品。我們也在進行投資，我們在英國開設了一家新的財富管理中心。此外，商業銀行業務對我們來說非常重要，因為我們需要投資於客戶服務、客戶體驗等方面，而這主要是一項負債驅動的業務。

Having said that, we are very pleased that our corporate lending book in the UK has shown sustainable growth in the sectors that we have lent into, so more into the new economy sectors, into infrastructure, into social housing, into innovation and so on. So that has been really positive for us.

儘管如此，我們非常高興地看到，我們在英國的企業貸款業務在我們所涉足的領域，例如新經濟領域、基礎設施、社會住房、創新等領域，都實現了永續成長。這對我們來說確實是件好事。

From an impairment perspective, just to give you a context, a $300 million charge in a quarter for the UK is not abnormal. In prior quarters where we had to release, the charge can fluctuate between $200 million to $300 million. In terms of the specifics, there were a few single name defaults, but they were all of very small amounts, so nothing notable. And no specific concentration in any sector. So I feel quite comfortable in that space.

從減損角度來看，舉個例子，英國一個季度提列 3 億美元的費用並不算異常。在之前幾個季度，我們不得不披露相關信息，相關費用可能在 2 億美元到 3 億美元之間波動。具體來說，雖然有一些單名違約，但金額都很小，所以沒什麼值得注意的。而且沒有集中在任何特定領域。所以我覺得在這個空間很自在。

From a Madoff perspective, just to be clear, we had an appeal as of December, and the outcome of the appeal was only known to us on Friday, October 24, and therefore, we gave our RNS, an announcement on the provision yesterday. So the provision we have given is our best judgment of likely outcomes. It's not a midpoint. It's not a broad range as people may think, but it's just our best judgment based upon advice from our both internal and external legal counsel.

從麥道夫的角度來看，需要明確的是，我們在 12 月提出了上訴，直到 10 月 24 日星期五我們才知道上訴結果，因此，我們昨天透過 RNS 發布了有關撥備的公告。因此，我們給出的方案是我們對可能結果的最佳判斷。它不是中間點。這並不像人們想像的那樣範圍很廣，而只是我們根據內部和外部法律顧問的建議做出的最佳判斷。

Kunpeng Ma, China Securities.

馬坤鵬，中國證券。

It's Chen Li from China Securities. And I also have the questions about the wealth management because of the further interest rate cut. So will the non-resident new customers in Hong Kong will slow down or keep stable? And also, how would the migration of retail deposits into wealth management products impact our wealth management revenue?

我是來自中國證券的陳莉。由於利率進一步下調，我對財富管理方面也有一些疑問。那麼，香港的非居民新客戶數量會放緩還是保持穩定？此外，零售存款向財富管理產品的轉移會對我們的財富管理收入產生怎樣的影響？

Thank you. So on wealth management, the growth of wealth management that we've seen comes both from new customers, but primarily from our existing customer base in Hong Kong. We do not believe that at a normalized HIBOR rate, which we've had seen for quite a long period of time despite the fluctuations we've had earlier this year that, that should have an impact on both the appetite of our customers for wealth management products, their desire to diversify and our matched product offering, which is in a prime position to meet their needs. So I don't think there is anything more to call.

謝謝。因此，在財富管理方面，我們看到的財富管理成長既來自新客戶，但主要來自我們在香港的現有客戶群。我們認為，在已經維持相當長一段時間的正常化 HIBOR 利率下（儘管今年早些時候利率有所波動），這不會對客戶對財富管理產品的需求、多元化投資的意願以及我們能夠滿足他們需求的配套產品產生影響。所以我覺得沒什麼好說的了。

Obviously, a positive stock market is good optimism factor and encourages customers to invest even more. But the baseline growth that we are seeing quarter-on-quarter is very much expected to continue.

顯然，股市上漲會提振市場信心，鼓勵客戶增加投資。但我們預計，目前每季的基本成長動能將會持續下去。

Alastair Warr, Autonomous.

阿拉斯泰爾‧沃，自主創業。

I just wanted to quickly return to the Hong Kong CRE question. You saw -- as you touched on yourself some downward migration. You said before, you've been focused particularly on the higher LTV problem loans. And those have gone up quite a bit again, third quarter versus the half year. So could you just give us a little bit more about what (technical difficulty) you've been doing in the quarter?

我只想快速回到香港商業房地產的問題。你看到了——當你觸碰到自己時，某種向下遷移的跡象。你之前說過，你一直特別關注高貸款成數（LTV）的問題貸款。第三季與上半年相比，這些數字又大幅上升了。那麼，您能否再詳細介紹一下您在本季遇到的（技術難題）？

(technical difficulty) the number, which has grown. But in the same note, we've taken more provisions. So net of the provisions quarter-on-quarter, that number has pretty much stayed steady around the $900 million. Now in terms of valuations, of course, we look at valuations across the Board. And particularly for these, we look at them on a quarterly basis as well as if there are any transactions or events that cause us to pause and look at the valuations, again, we are looking at that.

（技術難題）數量已經成長。但同時，我們也採取了更多措施。因此，在扣除季度準備金後，該數字基本上穩定在 9 億美元左右。至於估值方面，我們當然會全面檢視各個方面的估值。特別是對於這些，我們會按季度進行評估，如果出現任何交易或事件導致我們暫停並重新審視估值，我們也會進行評估。

The real distinction between perhaps what you saw in the middle of the year and now is that there is no individual surprise name or situation. And overall, in Hong Kong CRE, retail has got better, residential, as we know, has stabilized. And on the office space, which is challenging, we are not so far seeing improvements, which are coming from the momentum even slight as it may be in terms of A-type properties going into the rest of the office (technical difficulty) continue.

年中時的情況與現在的情況真正的區別在於，現在沒有出現任何令人意外的個人或情況。整體而言，香港商業地產中，零售業有所好轉，而住宅業，正如我們所知，已經趨於穩定。至於辦公空間，這是一個具有挑戰性的問題，到目前為止，我們還沒有看到任何改善，這得益於A類物業進入其他辦公空間的勢頭，即使這種勢頭可能很微弱（技術上的困難），但這種勢頭仍在繼續。

(technical difficulty)

（技術難題）

You've now announced review. I see there's no mention of Australia or Indonesia in the slides this time, whereas there was in Q2. Can you just provide us with an update there, particularly Australia because that is a potentially more sizable divestment.

您已宣布進行審核。我發現這次的幻燈片中沒有提到澳大利亞或印度尼西亞，而第二季度有提到。您能否提供這方面的最新進展，特別是澳洲的情況，因為那裡的撤資規模可能更大。

And then the second question, just on the new disclosure on slide 7 where you provided the resident versus non-resident split of the additional customer base in Hong Kong. Perhaps you could just give us an idea of what the split is of the stock as well as the flow. How that changes with Hang Seng Bank if you were to combine the two, not just look at the red brand and how the revenue margins compare between resident versus non-resident?

第二個問題，是關於第 7 頁投影片上的新揭露，其中提供了香港新增客戶群的居民與非居民細分。或許您可以跟我們介紹一下股票的分割比例以及資金流動狀況。如果將恆生銀行和紅牌銀行合併，情況會有什麼改變？我們不僅要看紅牌銀行，還要比較居民和非居民的收入利潤率。

Thank you, Andrew. So firstly, your questions on the divestments that we had called out in terms of strategic reviews, there is no further news. They are continuing through that strategic review process. So that's why we haven't called out anything specific here. It's work in progress, no turning back as such.

謝謝你，安德魯。首先，關於你們提出的我們在策略評估中提到的資產剝離問題，目前沒有進一步的消息。他們正在繼續進行策略評估流程。所以這就是為什麼我們沒有在這裡具體指出任何問題的原因。這是一項正在進行中的工作，還沒有真正意義上的回頭路。

So the slide that we have said on the resident and non-resident, the reason for that slide is really twofold. Firstly, to explain to you that why this growth and the reasoning of how it's grown up since the Board has opened up in '23 and see that trajectory, and that shows how the trajectory is continuing. However, it does show that fundamentally, the customers who are coming in to begin with are coming with small balances, and it's a deposit-led growth story. There is also an uptake on insurance (technical difficulty)

所以，我們剛才提到的關於居民和非居民的幻燈片，原因其實有兩個面向。首先，我要向你們解釋一下，為什麼會有這種成長，以及自董事會於 2023 年成立以來，這種成長是如何發生的，並展示這種成長軌跡，這表明這種軌跡仍在繼續。然而，這確實表明，從根本上講，最初進入銀行的客戶帳戶餘額較小，這是一個由存款驅動的成長故事。保險需求也有所成長。（技術難題）

If you look at the premier customer base (technical difficulty) so that's how I would look at it. And the new customers coming in in terms of a trajectory has continued pretty consistently at least through this year at 100,000 plus every quarter. It's a little higher than what it was in '24, which was a little hard to begin with from where it was in '23. So you can see that as a continuum.

如果你看看主要客戶群（技術難度），我就會這樣看待這個問題。從發展軌跡來看，新客戶的成長動能一直相當穩定，至少在今年為止，每季都超過 10 萬。它比 2024 年略高一些，而 2024 年的情況本來就有點糟糕，因為 2023 年的情況就比較嚴峻。所以你可以把它看作是一個連續體。

In terms of Hang Seng, they don't do a third quarter filing. So I don't want to say anything about that. There's no news to share. They are a listed company in their own right. But obviously, as we have talked about the opportunities for revenue growth and operating leverage as part of our offer, that does call out that from a revenue perspective, particularly on Wealth products, we will have greater opportunities to leverage the Wealth products in the red brand, for the green brand customers, both existing and new, which continue.

恆生指數不發布第三季財報。所以我不想就此事發表任何評論。沒有什麼新聞可以分享。它們本身就是一家上市公司。但顯然，正如我們之前討論過的，作為我們產品的一部分，收入成長和營運槓桿的機會，確實表明，從收入的角度來看，尤其是在財富產品方面，我們將有更大的機會利用紅色品牌的財富產品，為綠色品牌的客戶（包括現有客戶和新客戶）提供服務，這種情況將繼續下去。

Thank you, Pam, and thank you all for your questions today and for joining our webinar on the 3Q results for (technical difficulty) now disconnect your lines.

謝謝帕姆，也感謝大家今天提出的問題，以及參加我們關於第三季業績的網路研討會（技術故障，請斷開連接）。