滙豐控股 (HSBC) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

(Operator Instructions)

（操作員指示）

Welcome, ladies and gentlemen, to the analyst and investor webinar on the first quarter results for HSBC Holdings plc. For your information, this webinar is being recorded.

女士們、先生們，歡迎參加匯豐控股有限公司第一季業績分析師和投資者網路研討會。供您參考，本次網路研討會正在錄製中。

I will now hand over to Georges Elhedery, Group CEO.

現在我將把權力移交給集團執行長 Georges Elhedery。

Welcome all to today's call. I'm joined here in London by Pam. Before Pam takes you through the numbers, I would like to begin with some opening remarks.

歡迎大家參加今天的電話會議。帕姆在倫敦與我會面。在帕姆向大家介紹這些數字之前，我想先說幾句開場白。

Overall, there was a strong quarter marked by three key drivers. Momentum in our earnings, discipline our execution, and confidence in our ability to deliver our targets. First, we have strong momentum in our business. We had a strong first quarter with profit before tax up 11% and an annualized return on tangible equity of 18.4%, both excluding notable items.

整體而言，本季業績表現強勁，主要受三大關鍵驅動因素的影響。我們的獲利勢頭強勁，我們的執行紀律嚴明，我們對實現目標的能力充滿信心。首先，我們的業務發展勢頭強勁。我們第一季表現強勁，稅前利潤成長 11%，有形資產年化報酬率為 18.4%（不包括重大項目）。

We had our fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth in wealth and attracted net new invested assets of $22 billion as well as another 300,000 new-to-bank customers in Hong Kong, continuing the trend from last year. We also had a strong performance in Transaction Banking, in particular, in FX. And our equities and debt trading businesses, benefiting from higher client activity on the back of higher volatility.

我們的財富連續第五個季度實現兩位數成長，吸引了220億美元的淨新投資資產，並在香港新增了30萬名銀行新客戶，延續了去年的趨勢。我們在交易銀行業務，尤其是外匯業務方面也表現強勁。我們的股票和債務交易業務受益於波動性增加導致的客戶活動增加。

Second, we remain focused on executing our strategy with discipline and are on track to deliver the cost actions we set out in February. We are progressing at pace to deliver on the simplification-related cost saves as well as the strategic cost reallocations. We also continue to take a disciplined approach to our investments and capital allocation to drive growth across our four businesses. We will provide you with a full update on this at the half year results in July.

其次，我們將繼續專注於嚴格執行我們的策略，並有望實現我們在二月制定的成本行動。我們正在穩步推進與簡化相關的成本節約以及策略性成本重新分配。我們也將繼續採取嚴謹的投資和資本配置方式，以推動四大業務的成長。我們將在 7 月的半年業績報告中向您提供關於此事的完整更新資訊。

Third, the external macroeconomic environment is less favorable and more uncertain than it was in February as the uncertainty around trade policy dampens business confidence and constrained investment. However, we remain confident in our ability to deliver our targets. Our balance sheet is strong. This is reflected in the deposit surpluses we hold in every major currency in each of our four businesses in every geography in which we operate.

三是外部宏觀經濟環境不如2月有利，不確定性加大，貿易政策的不確定性抑制企業信心，限制投資。然而，我們仍然對我們實現目標的能力充滿信心。我們的資產負債表強勁。這反映在我們經營所在的每個地區的四項業務中每種主要貨幣的存款盈餘。

This is why our clients place their trust in us during times of predictability and even more so during times of unpredictability. These provide us with a steady recurring income stream and underpin the lion's share of our banking NII. Growing our structural hedge has reduced the sensitivity of these revenues to interest rate cuts.

這就是為什麼我們的客戶在可預測的時期信任我們，而在不可預測的時期則更信任我們。這些為我們提供了穩定的經常性收入來源，並支撐了我們銀行NII的大部分份額。增加我們的結構性避險降低了這些收入對降息的敏感度。

Our balance sheet is also underpinned by a strong capital position and a high-quality credit portfolio. We also have resilient, recurring fee income from stable floor-based activities in transaction banking and in wealth, with a much smaller contribution from investment banking event-driven business. I encourage you to keep the diversity and quality of our earnings in mind when considering how changes in trade policy will affect our business.

我們的資產負債表也以強大的資本狀況和高品質的信貸組合為基礎。我們也從交易銀行和財富管理業務中穩定的場內活動中獲得了有彈性的經常性費用收入，而來自投資銀行事件驅動業務的貢獻則小得多。我鼓勵你們在考慮貿易政策變化將如何影響我們的業務時，並牢記我們收益的多樣性和品質。

Our wholesale transaction banking business covers much broader activities than those related to cross-border trade. And with our trade finance business, we have diverse products, and cover all major global and intra-regional corridors. To assess the impact, higher tariffs could have on our business. We modeled scenarios that contemplate significant but plausible increases in tariffs by the world's largest trading blocks, resulting in a notable slowdown in global trade as well as a slowdown in global GDP growth. In a closable downside tariff scenario, we estimate that there would be a low single-digit percentage impact on the group's revenues.

我們的批發交易銀行業務涵蓋的活動比跨境貿易業務廣泛得多。我們的貿易融資業務產品多樣化，涵蓋所有主要的全球和區域內管道。為了評估影響，提高關稅可能會對我們的業務產生影響。我們模擬了一些情景，設想世界最大的貿易集團大幅但合理地提高關稅，導致全球貿易明顯放緩以及全球 GDP 成長放緩。在可關閉的下行關稅情境下，我們估計這將對集團的收入產生低個位數百分比的影響。

Separately, our consensus downside scenario models a slowdown in global trade and GDP growth as a result of an increase in tariffs. The impact of this scenario would be incremental ECLs of $0.5 billion. On this basis, we remain confident in delivering a mid-teens return on tangible equity for 2025, 2026, and 2027 and are reaffirming all of the guidance that we gave in February. We recognize, though, that the broader impacts of the current conditions are more difficult to quantify, and we will continue to monitor these as we formulate our ongoing outlook.

另外，我們一致的下行情境模型顯示，由於關稅上調，全球貿易和 GDP 成長將放緩。該情境的影響將導致預期信用損失增加 5 億美元。在此基礎上，我們仍有信心在 2025 年、2026 年和 2027 年實現中等水準的有形股權回報率，並重申我們在二月給出的所有指導。然而，我們認識到，當前狀況的更廣泛影響更難以量化，我們將在製定持續展望時繼續監測這些影響。

Importantly, in the current environment, customers look for the strength, stability and expertise of a trusted partner. We are extremely well positioned to support all of our customers wherever they are; however, they need to evolve, and whatever the market conditions.

重要的是，在當前環境下，客戶尋求值得信賴的合作夥伴的實力、穩定性和專業知識。我們擁有極其優越的條件為所有客戶提供支持，無論他們身在何處；然而，無論市場條件如何，它們都需要發展。

Finally, we're also pleased to announce an up to $3 billion share buyback and a $0.10 per share interim dividend, reflecting our continued focus on capital return to our investors.

最後，我們也很高興地宣布高達 30 億美元的股票回購和每股 0.10 美元的中期股息，這體現了我們對投資者資本回報的持續關注。

With that, let me hand over to Pam.

說完這些，讓我把麥克風交給帕姆。

Thank you, Georges. Thank you, everyone, for joining.

謝謝你，喬治。謝謝大家的參與。

The momentum in our business has enabled us to deliver a strong first quarter performance headlined by an annualized return on tangible equity of 18.4%, excluding notable items. We had very good underlying profit and revenue performances. Credit remained stable, and we maintained a disciplined approach to cost management.

我們業務的強勁發展勢頭使我們能夠在第一季取得強勁的業績，不包括重大項目，有形股本年化回報率達到 18.4%。我們的基本利潤和收入表現非常好。信貸保持穩定，我們保持了嚴謹的成本管理方法。

We are pleased to announce a first interim dividend of $0.10 per share and a share buyback of up to $3 billion. The buybacks we completed over the last 12 months have helped take us closer to our target range of 14% to 14.5% CET1. We will continue to return surplus capital to shareholders with buybacks remaining our preferred method. As always, a decision on any share buyback will be made on a quarterly basis. It will depend on organic capital generation and the capital needs of the business.

我們很高興地宣布，首次中期股息為每股 0.10 美元，並回購高達 30 億美元的股票。我們在過去 12 個月內完成的回購幫助我們更接近 14% 至 14.5% CET1 的目標範圍。我們將繼續向股東返還剩餘資本，回購仍是我們首選的方法。與往常一樣，任何股票回購的決定都將按季度做出。這將取決於有機資本的產生和企業的資本需求。

Unpacking the revenue story, excluding notable items, revenue of $17.7 billion was up $1.1 billion on the first quarter of last year, driven by fee and other income. It also included a $0.3 billion increase in debt and equity markets driven by higher volatility and a favorable impact of $0.2 billion in the quarter from the disposal of Argentina, which we completed at the end of last year.

詳細分析收入情況，除去重大項目，收入為 177 億美元，比去年第一季增加了 11 億美元，主要得益於費用和其他收入。其中還包括因波動性加劇而導致的債務和股票市場增加 3 億美元，以及去年年底我們完成的阿根廷資產處置給本季帶來的 2 億美元有利影響。

On banking NII, excluding the impact of Argentina, and other notable items, the banking NII run rate remained broadly stable for the -- on the fourth quarter. The impact of interest rate cuts and two fewer days in the quarter were offset by the repricing of liabilities and structural hedge assets and some favorable changes in asset mix. We continue to expect banking NII of around $42 billion in 2025. As previously stated, this is not an underpin. It remains our expectation at the present time, based on the current market rates outlook and our own projections.

關於銀行業 NII，排除阿根廷和其他值得注意的項目的影響，第四季度銀行業 NII 運作率基本上保持穩定。降息和本季減少兩天的影響被負債和結構性對沖資產的重新定價以及資產組合的一些有利變化所抵消。我們仍然預計 2025 年銀行業 NII 將達到 420 億美元左右。如前所述，這不是基礎。根據當前的市場利率前景和我們自己的預測，這仍然是我們目前的預期。

Moving to fee and other income. Wholesale transaction banking was up 13% on last year's first quarter. This was driven by a strong FX performance as elevated volatility drove substantial volumes of client hedging activity. Excluding the impact of disposals, Global Payment Solutions was up 3% year-on-year, and Global Trade Solutions was up 6%. In Wealth, the strong momentum from the fourth quarter continued, as we delivered our fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit year-on-year growth.

轉向費用和其他收入。批發交易銀行業務較去年第一季成長了 13%。這是由強勁的外匯表現推動的，因為波動性上升引發了大量的客戶對沖活動。不計處置的影響，全球支付解決方案年增 3%，全球貿易解決方案年增 6%。在財富管理方面，我們延續了第四季度的強勁勢頭，連續第五個季度實現兩位數同比增長。

High client activity levels in Asia, primarily Hong Kong were the key driver, and there was broad-based growth. We are pleased that the investment we are making in our wealth products, distribution channels and customer journeys is translating into results. A record new business CSM 301,000 new-to-bank customers in Hong Kong and $22 billion of net new invested assets, $16 billion of which was in Asia. The CSM balance, which is a store of future value was up again this quarter. As you know, the CSM balance is subject to market fluctuations and sensitivities to key indices are in the earning release.

亞洲（主要是香港）的客戶活動水平高是主要推動力，並實現了廣泛的成長。我們很高興看到我們在財富產品、分銷管道和客戶旅程方面的投資正在轉化為成果。創紀錄的新業務 CSM 在香港新增了 301,000 名銀行客戶，新增淨投資資產達 220 億美元，其中 160 億美元在亞洲。作為未來價值儲存的 CSM 餘額本季再次上升。如您所知，CSM 餘額受市場波動的影響，並且對關鍵指數的敏感度體現在收益發布中。

On credit, our first quarter ECL charge of $0.9 billion equivalent to an annualized charge of 37 basis points as a percentage of loans and advances. This included a $150 million provision to reflect heightened economic uncertainty. Excluding this, the first quarter charge was broadly the same as in the first quarter of 2024.

在信貸方面，我們第一季的預期信用損失為 9 億美元，相當於貸款和預付款的 37 個基點的年化費用。其中包括一筆 1.5 億美元的撥備，以應對日益加劇的經濟不確定性。除此之外，第一季的費用與 2024 年第一季大致相同。

The credit risk metrics that we track remains stable, and we continue to monitor them closely. Thinking about the potential impact of tariffs on credit performance, ECLs will be sensitive to macroeconomic performance, the outlook for which remains uncertain. We consider a variety of scenarios as part of our ECL calculation. One of these is the consensus downside scenario, in which an increase in tariffs results in a global economic slowdown. In this scenario, there would be an incremental ECL charge of around $0.5 billion.

我們追蹤的信用風險指標保持穩定，我們將繼續密切監控。考慮到關稅對信貸表現的潛在影響，預期信用損失將對宏觀經濟表現敏感，而宏觀經濟表現的前景仍不確定。我們在計算預期信用損失時會考慮多種情況。其中之一是普遍認為的下行情景，即關稅上調將導致全球經濟放緩。在這種情況下，預期信用損失費用將增加約 5 億美元。

On costs, we are taking a disciplined approach to cost management and are on target to achieve our target of around 3% cost growth in 2025, compared to 2024 on a target basis. We are also on track to deliver $0.3 billion of simplification savings into the P&L in 2025.

在成本方面，我們採取了嚴謹的成本管理方法，目標是實現 2025 年成本成長 3% 左右的目標，而 2024 年則為目標。我們還有望在 2025 年實現 3 億美元的簡化損益節省。

On loans and deposits, loan balances were broadly stable quarter-on-quarter, as growth in Corporate and Institutional Banking was offset by the reclassification of our retained French home loan portfolio. Deposits were also broadly stable quarter-on-quarter with a partial reversal of some of the seasonal inflows we saw in Q4. Year-on-year, deposits were up 6% with growth in all entities and businesses.

在貸款和存款方面，貸款餘額環比基本上穩定，因為企業和機構銀行業務的成長被我們保留的法國房屋貸款組合的重新分類所抵消。存款環比也基本上保持穩定，第四季我們看到的一些季節性流入出現部分逆轉。與去年同期相比，存款成長了6%，所有實體和業務均實現了成長。

Our CET1 ratio was 14.7%. The reclassification of our retained French home loan portfolio led to a $1.3 billion pretax loss in the quarter, recognized in fair value through other comprehensive income. This had a capital impact of around 0.2-percentage-points of CET1.

我們的 CET1 比率為 14.7%。我們保留的法國房屋貸款組合的重新分類導致本季出現 13 億美元的稅前損失，該損失透過其他綜合收益以公允價值確認。這對 CET1 的資本影響約為 0.2 個百分點。

Looking ahead, we expect the buyback we announced today to have an impact of around 0.4-percentage-points in the second quarter. You will have seen that BoCom has announced that it is approved a share issuance of up to CNY120 billion. Upon completion, we expect to recognize an accounting impact dilution loss of between $1.2 billion and $1.6 billion on our stake. This will be treated as a material notable item and will have no material impact on CET1 and no impact on the dividend.

展望未來，我們預計今天宣布的回購將在第二季產生約 0.4 個百分點的影響。大家應該已經看到，交通銀行已經宣布，批准增發不超過1200億元的股票。完成後，我們預計將確認 12 億美元至 16 億美元的股權會計影響稀釋損失。這將被視為一項重大值得注意的項目，不會對 CET1 產生重大影響，也不會對股息產生影響。

Let me end by summarizing. First, we have momentum in our earnings. We had a strong first quarter performance with an annualized return on tangible equity of 18.4%, excluding notable items. We have also continued to perform well in the quarter to date. Second, we have discipline in our execution. We are on track to deliver the cost actions we set out in February. Third, although the external environment is more uncertain we are confident in our ability to deliver, and we are reaffirming our existing targets and guidance. This includes a mid-teens, return on tangible equity in 2025, 2026 and 2027.

最後，請容許我做個總結。首先，我們的獲利勢頭強勁。我們第一季業績表現強勁，扣除重大專案後，年化有形股本回報率為 18.4%。本季度迄今為止，我們的表現依然良好。第二，我們有紀律地執行。我們正在按計劃實施二月份制定的成本行動。第三，儘管外在環境更加不確定，但我們對自己實現目標的能力充滿信心，並重申我們現有的目標和指導方針。這包括 2025 年、2026 年和 2027 年的中等程度有形資產回報率。

Louis, can we go to Q&A, please?

路易斯，我們可以進入問答環節嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Benjamin Toms, RBC.

（操作員指示） Benjamin Toms，RBC。

Firstly, you mentioned in the release that you've launched a strategic review of Malta, full year results. We were relatively early in the strategic refresh process, the other geographies that you're also strategically reviewing the full year results, you talked about $1.5 billion of gross cost saves. Now you're deeper into that process. Have you seen any potential to be able to achieve cost saves in excess of that target?

首先，您在新聞稿中提到，您已經啟動了對馬耳他全年業績的策略審查。我們處於策略更新過程的早期階段，您也在策略性地審查其他地區的全年業績，您談到了 15 億美元的總成本節省。現在您已經更深入地了解了這個過程。您是否看到了能夠實現超過該目標的成本節約的任何潛力？

And then secondly, one of the feature to your Q1 results was the strength in fees and other income. Can you provide some color on how sustainable that print is and how much is driven by the augmented volatility?

其次，第一季業績的一個特點是費用和其他收入強勁。您能否說明一下這種印刷的可持續性以及其在多大程度上受到增強波動性的推動？

So we've announced at the -- in February, $1.5 billion of cost sales from the organizational simplification, which we expect to take to the bottom line. And as Pam shared earlier, we are on track to deliver those, and we're moving at pace. We separately announced $1.5 billion from strategic reallocation of costs from activities that are nonstrategic or low returning into our core strategy where areas of our competitive strength.

因此，我們在二月宣布，透過組織精簡，我們將獲得 15 億美元的成本銷售，我們預計這將帶來利潤。正如帕姆之前所說，我們正在按計劃實現這些目標，並且正在快速前進。我們另外宣布將從非策略性或低迴報活動中的策略性成本重新分配15億美元，用於我們的核心策略領域，也就是我們的競爭優勢領域。

We continue to progress at pace on those. And we've made a number of announcements, which we've shared, including the investment banking in Europe and the US, including the French insurance, the private bank in Germany, et cetera. And we're progressing with those at pace. And again, on both items, we continue the execution with discipline and pace and we're not faced -- we remain on pace with the external environment for the execution of those. This is our primary focus now. It's just focusing on delivering those. Matter -- kind of cost efficiencies as a matter of BAU, if you identify cost efficiencies, we will, of course, be taking them as a matter of BAU, but our primary focus is to deliver on those commitments.

我們將繼續快速推進這些工作。我們已經發布了許多公告並與大家分享，包括歐洲和美國的投資銀行業務、法國保險、德國私人銀行等等。我們正在快速推進這些工作。再次強調，對於這兩項任務，我們將繼續嚴格按照規定和節奏執行，我們不會面臨外在環境的影響，我們將繼續保持執行這些任務的節奏。這是我們現在關注的重點。它只是專注於實現這些目標。問題—作為 BAU 問題的成本效率，如果您確定了成本效率，我們當然會將其視為 BAU 問題，但我們的主要重點是兌現這些承諾。

With regards fees and other income, look, we've talked to the plausible downside scenario, which may put some -- that it's an adverse scenario, but it is a plausible scenario. And it will slow down parts of our business in trade flows, but also the implication it has on other aspects of our business, including the volumes in general. But outside, I would say, this adverse scenario, we continue to see strength in the wealth business, five quarters double-digit growth, which we expect to continue in the medium term, at least for the medium term, and we continue to invest in this space. And we continue investing in a number of areas as we called out in February, because we believe in the growth potential that we can exhibit in these areas.

關於費用和其他收入，看，我們已經討論了可能的下行情景，這可能會讓一些人認為這是一個不利的情景，但這是一個可能的情景。這會減緩我們部分貿易業務的流動，也會對我們業務的其他方面產生影響，包括整體業務量。但我想說，在這種不利的情況下，我們繼續看到財富業務的強勁增長，五個季度都實現了兩位數的增長，我們預計這種增長將在中期內持續下去，至少在中期內會持續下去，我們將繼續在這一領域進行投資。正如我們在二月所呼籲的那樣，我們將繼續在多個領域進行投資，因為我們相信我們可以在這些領域展現出成長潛力。

So Ben, just to add, I mean, for the quarter, there's been good performance, and there's been a high level of client activity, which has benefited FX debt equities markets and wealth. Also, I want to just remind that 1 benefit was also the Argentina headwind that we had of $0.2 billion in Q1 of '24, which obviously didn't repeat in this quarter because of the sale. But the key franchise factors are, wealth, it's a structural growth, and those dynamics will persist. They are driven by our brand, they're driven by the range of products we have to offer, the improvements we've made in terms of technology, and that investment is good pay.

所以本，我補充一下，本季業績表現良好，客戶活動水準很高，這對外匯債務股票市場和財富都有好處。另外，我想提醒大家的是，1 個好處也是我們在 2024 年第一季面臨的 2 億美元阿根廷逆風，但由於出售，這種情況在本季顯然沒有重演。但特許經營的關鍵因素是財富，這是一種結構性成長，而這些動力將持續下去。他們被我們的品牌、我們提供的產品系列、我們在技術方面所取得的進步所驅動，而這種投資是豐厚的回報。

And as Georges said, we stay confident in terms of double-digit growth in the medium term. On wholesale transaction banking, it remains an area of competitive advantage. We will continue to grow there, but it's going to be hard to predict quarter-to-quarter, especially in the current environment. Volatility has definitely benefited us in this quarter. So it may not repeat at the very high levels that we've seen in this quarter, but we are still continuing to see underlying growth as we have progressed through in Q2.

正如喬治所說，我們對中期兩位數的成長充滿信心。在批發交易銀行業務方面，它仍然是一個競爭優勢領域。我們將繼續在那裡發展，但很難預測每個季度的情況，特別是在當前環境下。本季的波動確實為我們帶來了好處。因此，它可能不會重複我們在本季度看到的非常高的水平，但隨著第二季度的進展，我們仍將繼續看到潛在的成長。

Joseph Dickerson, Jefferies.

約瑟夫‧迪克森，傑富瑞集團。

Congrats on a strong set of numbers and some clarity on your thinking on the path forward. Can I just ask on the plausible downside scenarios for the low single-digit impact on revenue. I guess, what was the point of undertaking that exercise? Was it to basically show that the perception of the bank is a global trade bank in some ways, maybe exaggerated about how you're not -- basically, you're not overly reliant on any particular corridors. And I guess, what kind of elements went into that scenario in terms of magnitude of drawdown on trade.

恭喜您取得了一系列強勁的數據，並明確了您前進的道路。我能否詢問一下對收入產生低個位數影響的可能不利情景。我想，進行這項練習的意義何在？這是否是為了從根本上表明該銀行在某些方面被視為一家全球貿易銀行，或許誇大了你不是——基本上，你不會過度依賴任何特定的管道。我想，就貿易下滑的幅度而言，哪些因素導致了這種情況的發生。

And then secondly, just on that, could you opine on any opportunities that you're seeing or that you foresee as a result of what's happening, not that necessarily starting at the moment, but just any opportunities that you're going to see based on any initial discussions?

其次，就這一點而言，您能否就您所看到或預見到的任何機會發表意見，這些機會不一定是從現在開始的，而只是根據初步討論您將看到的任何機會？

And then I would presume that the -- you had a very strong new-to-bank customers in Hong Kong. I presume -- can you make any comment on April trends there? I would have presumed that, that would have continued from last quarter if what we're picking up on the ground in Hong Kong is accurate.

然後我會假設—您在香港擁有非常強大的銀行新客戶。我想—您能對那裡四月份的趨勢發表什麼評論嗎？如果我們在香港實地了解到的情況是準確的，我本來認為這種情況會從上個季度開始持續下去。

I'll take your question about the positioning of our trade business and our bank as well as the opportunities. And I'll ask Pam to take you through the elements of this analysis. So we are the world's trade bank. We have been ranked the number one trade bank for eight consecutive years. But our trade covers a variety of products as well as we cover all the large corridors of trade, including intra-regional corridors, which have been growing quite fast over the last few years.

我將回答您關於我們的貿易業務和銀行的定位以及機會的問題。我會讓帕姆向你們介紹一下這個分析的要素。因此我們是世界貿易銀行。我們已連續八年被評為第一大貿易銀行。但我們的貿易涵蓋了各種各樣的產品，也涵蓋了所有大型貿易走廊，包括區域內走廊，這些走廊在過去幾年裡發展得相當快。

The exercise that we've conducted is meant to basically evaluate the impact of plausible downside scenarios on our overall activities, obviously, including trade. But just to add on trade, number one, we have more than 5,000 trade specialists in 50 -- more than 50 markets.

我們進行的演習主要是為了評估可能的下行情境對我們的整體活動（顯然包括貿易）的影響。但僅就貿易而言，第一，我們在 50 多個市場擁有 5,000 多名貿易專家。

We're in a unique position to be able to support our customers with our expertise and trade, as the business environment shifts, the business outlook shifts, their trading pattern shifts and they -- our customers need to reconfigure some of their supply chains. And we expect to be able to deepen our relationships with existing clients, but also thanks to our strength, stability and expertise to attract more clients and to continue building market share in the trade business, among other of the kind of robust business proposition and service proposition we have for our customers. Pam?

隨著商業環境的變化、商業前景的變化、貿易模式的變化以及我們的客戶需要重新配置部分供應鏈，我們處於獨特的地位，能夠利用我們的專業知識和貿易為我們的客戶提供支援。我們希望能夠加深與現有客戶的關係，同時也得益於我們的實力、穩定性和專業知識，我們可以吸引更多的客戶，繼續在貿易業務中擴大市場份額，以及我們為客戶提供的強大的業務主張和服務主張。帕姆？

So firstly, broadly in terms of contact setting, every quarter, we do a range of scenario analysis. This quarter, we looked at the significant but plausible downside scenario resulting from increase in tariffs. We honed in on one scenario after looking at a range of possible outcomes, which we, as know, are uncertain and remain very wide. So the specific scenario, which we homed into was based on significant increase in tariffs as well as retaliatory tariffs.

首先，從聯繫設定方面來看，我們每季都會進行一系列情境分析。本季度，我們研究了關稅上調所導致的重大但合理的下行情景。在研究了一系列可能的結果之後，我們最終確定了一種情景，我們知道，這些結果並不確定，而且可能性仍然很大。因此，我們所考慮的具體情況是基於關稅大幅增加以及報復性關稅。

We also took a holistic approach. We considered different businesses, different geographies as well as customer segments. And this scenario resulted in significant decline in trade and significant slowdown in global GDP growth. The impact of this, we looked at both in terms of revenue through lower balances, but also on flow-based income.

我們也採取了整體方法。我們考慮了不同的業務、不同的地理位置以及不同的客戶群。這種情況導致貿易大幅下滑，全球GDP成長大幅放緩。我們不僅從較低餘額的收入角度來看待這一現象的影響，而且還從基於流量的收入角度來看待這一現象的影響。

In addition, just like we took a reserve of $150 million in this quarter from a downside scenario. We further looked at the downside scenario on a 100% probability basis and came up with a number, which is the $0.5 billion provision best estimate in terms of the tariffs.

此外，就像我們在本季為應對不利情況而提取了 1.5 億美元的儲備金一樣。我們進一步以 100% 的機率研究了下行情景，並得出了一個數字，即就關稅而言 0.5 億美元的撥備最佳估計。

Then with regard to your new to bank customers in Hong Kong, we were pleased to announce that we acquired 300,000 new-to-bank customers in Q1. This is after we acquired 800,000 new-to-bank customers in the full year 2024, and we continue to see that trend ongoing. Thank you very much, Joseph.

然後關於您在香港的新銀行客戶，我們很高興地宣布，我們在第一季獲得了 30 萬名新銀行客戶。這是在我們於 2024 年全年獲得 80 萬名新銀行客戶之後取得的，而且我們繼續看到這一趨勢持續下去。非常感謝，約瑟夫。

Kunpeng Ma, China Securities.

馬鯤鵬，中信證券。

This is Kunpeng Ma from China Securities. I have two questions. First is also some follow-ups on the closable downside trade scenario. If we compare the -- you have two scenario tests, one for trade, one for ECL but -- and we got your set of assumptions for the ECL tests from your annual report. So if we compare those two tests, other assumptions for the trade test, better or worse, than the -- I mean, the downside scenario better or worse than those set of assumptions used in the ECL test.

我是中信證券的馬鯤鵬。我有兩個問題。首先是一些可關閉的下行交易情境的後續情況。如果我們比較一下——您有兩個情境測試，一個用於貿易，一個用於 ECL，但是——我們從您的年度報告中獲得了針對 ECL 測試的一組假設。因此，如果我們比較這兩個測試，貿易測試的其他假設會比預期信用損失測試中使用的假設更好或更差——我的意思是，下行情境比預期信用損失測試中使用的假設更好或更差。

And also is the low single-digit revenue impact, just for some one year revenue or for every year's revenue thereafter. Yes. That's the first question. The second question is, could you please give us some color on the latest trend on Hong Kong CRE?

而且這對收入的影響很低，僅針對某一年的收入或此後每年的收入。是的。這是第一個問題。第二個問題是，您能否向我們介紹香港企業房地產的最新趨勢？

I'm going to ask Pam to address both your questions, Kunpeng Ma.

我將請 Pam 來回答您的兩個問題，馬鯕鵬。

So we're not going to get into the detail, but the underpinned pinning of the scenarios, whether it's ECLs or indeed on revenue has the same starting point. And we are comfortable based on the work we have done to reaffirm our guidance on RoTE. I just want to be clear that the scenario does not include the secondary impact of any change in policy rates in terms of the revenue-related scenario. Secondly, none of these two scenarios have what you call an extreme downside to scenario with like a double-digit contraction of GDP like we saw in the COVID period.

因此，我們不會深入細節，但場景的基礎確定，無論是預期信用損失還是收入，都有相同的起點。基於我們所做的工作，我們很放心地重申了我們對 RoTE 的指導。我只是想明確一點，該情境不包括與收入相關的情境中政策利率任何變化的次要影響。其次，這兩種情景都不會出現所謂的極端下行情景，例如我們在 COVID 時期看到的 GDP 出現兩位數的萎縮。

So just to give you some guardrails. So in terms of Hong Kong CRE, this was a relatively quiet quarter. We did have one specific name, which in the performing book, there was a credit downgrade. Otherwise, there's really nothing more significant. We continue to look at our book in detail, and there may be a few names up or down on the credit curve with very modest impact on RWAs, but no significant impact on ECL.

只是為了給你一些保護。因此，就香港企業房地產而言，這是一個相對平靜的季度。我們確實有一個特定的名字，在業績書中，其信用評級被降級。否則，真的沒有比這更重要的了。我們將繼續詳細審查我們的帳簿，信用曲線上可能會有一些名字的上升或下降，對風險加權資產的影響非常小，但對預期信用損失沒有顯著影響。

Aman Rakkar, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的阿曼‧拉卡爾 (Aman Rakkar)。

Thanks very much for the various updates and sensitivities that you've given us. I had two questions just around customer behavior. So I just wondered if you had observed any material shift in the way that your customers are transacting with you, you've seen any forward indicators around sentiment, any signs of derisking or deleveraging? Any shift in particularly your corporate customers that might be on the receiving end of trade tariffs? Any insights there would be really helpful.

非常感謝您向我們提供的各種更新和敏感資訊。我有兩個關於客戶行為的問題。所以我只是想知道您是否觀察到客戶與您交易的方式發生了任何重大轉變，您是否看到任何有關情緒的前瞻性指標，任何去風險或去槓桿的跡象？您的企業客戶是否發生了變化，可能成為貿易關稅的承受者？任何見解都會非常有幫助。

And then the second is definitely get the message around continuing to execute on the existing strategy? I guess just two related point to that, one around capital returns. I mean it's obviously great that you've announced a $3 billion buyback. You're talking about a more subdued outlook for lending by extension RWA. So presumably, you might be quite capital generative this year.

然後第二個肯定是傳達繼續執行現有策略的訊息？我想只有兩個相關點，一個是關於資本回報。我的意思是，你們宣布 30 億美元的回購顯然是件好事。您談論的是 RWA 延伸貸款前景更加低迷。因此可以推測，今年你的資本創造能力可能相當強。

So it seems like you're committed to distributions despite the uncertainty, right? It's an uncertain backdrop, but the pace of distributions that you're kind of executing on it, it feels like you're committed to that. Is that the right read? Should we be confident around things like the buyback sustainability from here.

所以看起來儘管存在不確定性，您仍然致力於分銷，對嗎？這是一個不確定的背景，但你在其上執行的分發速度讓人感覺你對此做出了承諾。這樣讀對了嗎？我們是否應該對諸如回購永續性之類的事情充滿信心？

And just the related part of that question then is just around you talk about divestiture on track, the $1.5 billion, but in terms of the redeploy, because I think you talked about some potential revenue opportunities from the redeploy or cost savings if it doesn't come through, are you minded to delay any of this redeploy basically given the volatile backdrop.

那麼，這個問題的相關部分就是您談論的資產剝離計劃，即 15 億美元的資產剝離，但就重新部署而言，因為我認為您談到了重新部署帶來的一些潛在收入機會，或者如果沒有實現成本節約，考慮到動蕩的背景，您是否介意推遲任何重新部署？

I'm going to take your first question about customer behavior, and I'll ask them to address both our capital return strategy as well as the cost redeployment from the reallocations. So in terms of customer behavior, I think nothing that would really surprise you. Corporate customers essentially are in a wait-and-see mode. So some of the CapEx or large investments are on hold. Certainly, some of the shipments from China specifically to the US have slowed down, but we've seen no PMIC. So there's been no significant drawdowns. There is -- deposit behavior has remained normal. So nothing really to call out beyond the wait and see.

我將回答您關於客戶行為的第一個問題，並請他們討論我們的資本回報策略以及重新分配的成本重新部署。因此，就客戶行為而言，我認為沒有什麼事情會讓你感到驚訝。企業客戶基本上處於觀望狀態。因此，一些資本支出或大型投資被擱置。當然，部分從中國到美國的出貨量已經放緩，但我們沒有看到 PMIC。因此沒有出現重大的虧損。有——存款行為保持正常。因此，除了等待和觀望之外，真的沒有什麼可說的。

In terms of personal banking and wealth customers activity. Actually, this has been quite strong. And remember, we have a diversified product offering. So we've seen customers rebalance investments between various offerings and be it various geographic equity exposure or other assets such as mutual funds or structured products.

就個人銀行及財富客戶活躍度而言。事實上，這已經相當強勁了。請記住，我們提供多樣化的產品。因此，我們看到客戶在各種產品之間重新平衡投資，無論是各種地理股票部位或其他資產，例如共同基金或結構性產品。

And when customers want to take a risk of approach, we see the money flow into our deposit base, so we kind of capture the customer assets either in invested assets or in deposits. But when we look at our NNIA for the first three months of the year, it remained positive, strong. So we remain positive on the outlook of the growth in this business.

當客戶想要承擔風險時，我們會看到資金流入我們的存款基礎，因此我們以投資資產或存款的形式取得客戶資產。但當我們回顧今年前三個月的 NNIA 時，它仍然保持積極、強勁。因此，我們對該業務的成長前景仍持樂觀態度。

Remember also, we're investing in this business. So we're capturing the underlying growth in the market, but we're also capturing market share in the way we're embedding in this business. Pam?

還要記住，我們正在投資這項業務。因此，我們不僅抓住了市場潛在的成長機會，還透過融入該業務的方式搶佔了市場份額。帕姆？

So just one point to add on the wealth customer behaviors. Our strength relies in our very broad product proposition. So as we see the mix shift between US equities or Asian equities, or indeed into short-term fixed income products. We are there to support our customers as well as in terms of insurance, on more protection and savings related products.

因此，只需補充一點關於財富客戶行為的內容。我們的優勢在於我們非常廣泛的產品主張。因此，我們看到美國股票或亞洲股票之間的組合轉變，或確實轉向短期固定收益產品。我們為客戶提供保險方面的支持，提供更多保護和儲蓄相關的產品。

So given that gives us confidence that this double-digit growth continues. And we've seen the same trend even through April and the same trend also no panic, no drawdowns and deposit behavior normal through April. So that's just to say that.

因此，我們相信這種兩位數的成長將會持續下去。甚至在整個四月份，我們都看到了同樣的趨勢，並且在整個四月份，都沒有恐慌，沒有提款，存​​​​款行為正常。這只是這麼說的。

Coming down to distribution. So just as a starting point, we have a policy on ordinary dividends. I'm assuming your question is much more on share buybacks. But let me the overall the process we follow. Every quarter, we look at where we are in terms of a CET1. And you know our CET1 operating range is between 14% to 14.5%. We also look at our capital generation, less the capital needs or capital deployment that we want to do.

歸結為分佈。因此，作為起點，我們制定了普通股利政策。我假設您的問題更多是關於股票回購。但請讓我概括一下我們遵循的流程。每個季度，我們都會查看我們的 CET1 水平。您知道我們的 CET1 營運範圍在 14% 到 14.5% 之間。我們也關注我們的資本生成，而不是我們想要的資本需求或資本部署。

And what's very important is routinely, we look at a range of scenarios in terms of the macroeconomic environment. And then based on that, we look at the quantum on share buybacks. And clearly, if we have excess capital, share buybacks continues to be our preferred method to return capital.

非常重要的是，我們常常從宏觀經濟環境的角度來檢視一系列情境。然後基於此，我們研究股票回購的數量。顯然，如果我們擁有過剩資本，股票回購仍然是我們回報資本的首選方法。

We have not changed our view on capital redeployment. But as I've said, we look at opportunities. We look at the generator capability quarter-on-quarter, and that's how we make the decision on the quantum of share buybacks.

我們沒有改變對資本重新部署的看法。但正如我所說，我們正在尋找機會。我們逐季度檢視發電機的發電能力，並以此決定股票回購的數量。

And on the redeployment of cost of the --

關於重新部署--

Yes, the deployment of cost, absolutely. So far, we have not made any change to the time line of what we said we would do. That redeployment is going to be through the midterm period, so between '25, '26 and '27. Clearly, in terms of the macroeconomic uncertainty, we are very mindful in this current environment that there may be some delays. But overall, it doesn't shift the trajectory or indeed the transactions that we have both announced and are working on, they are progressing as we expected.

是的，絕對需要部署成本。到目前為止，我們還沒有對我們說過的時間表做出任何改變。重新部署將在中期進行，也就是在 2025 年、2026 年和 2027 年之間。顯然，就宏觀經濟的不確定性而言，我們非常清楚在當前環境下可能會出現一些延誤。但總體而言，這並沒有改變我們已經宣布和正在進行的交易的軌跡，它們正在按照我們預期的方式進展。

Jason Napier, UBS.

瑞銀的傑森·納皮爾。

So two questions, please. The first, Georges, HSBC is a signatory to a letter suggesting to the U.K. regulators that ring fencing is something that should go I think that's the right view. But we've got a lot of investor demand for sense from the US to the motivation for that? What is it that you'd say in terms of OpEx, funding costs and what restructuring charges may go with that? So when you made that motivation, what was the next behind it?

請問有兩個問題。首先，喬治，匯豐銀行簽署了一封信，建議英國監管機構取消隔離措施，我認為這是正確的觀點。但是我們有很多來自美國的投資人需求，動機又是什麼？您對營運支出、融資成本以及隨之而來的重組費用有何看法？那麼，當您產生這種動機時，背後的動機是什麼？

And then secondly, very strong performance in costs in Q1, but guidance held constant for the year ahead. I guess that implies potentially some slippage in efficiency ratios in the quarters to come, notwithstanding the cost saving actions that are underway. Could you talk a little bit about sort of the moving parts? Is it just quarter-to-quarter volatility? Is there anything we should be thinking about in the upcoming quarters as far as cost inflation that is concerned.

其次，第一季的成本表現非常強勁，但對未來一年的預期保持不變。我猜這意味著，儘管正在採取成本節約措施，但未來幾季的效率比率仍可能出現下滑。能稍微談談活動部件的狀況嗎？這僅僅是季度間的波動嗎？就成本通膨而言，我們在未來幾季應該考慮什麼問題？

Let me address your first question on ring-fencing, and Pam will take your second question on the cost. So our view on ring-fencing is that we've taken major -- I mean there's been major enhancement to the prudential regulations for banks in the UK, in particular, the broader regimes of capital, of loss absorbency through -- recovery and resolution, et cetera. All these measures have basically put the bank in a much better safer prudential space that have made ring-fencing effectively redundant.

讓我來回答您關於隔離的第一個問題，帕姆將回答您關於成本的第二個問題。因此，我們對隔離的看法是，我們已經採取了重大措施——我的意思是，英國銀行的審慎監管已經有了很大的加強，特別是更廣泛的資本製度、透過恢復和處置等方式吸收損失的製度。所有這些措施基本上使銀行處於更安全、審慎的空間，使得隔離措施實際上變得多餘。

The second thing to say is that the UK is the only major economy that is applied ring-fencing. So it's quite unique to the UK. So as an outcome, is increase the cost to operate as a bank. It created capital inefficiencies at trapped liquidity, it effectively exposed our customers, including businesses and SMEs to higher costs. It did somewhat also stifle competition. The bar to be able to compete in the UK for banks has become stiffer and more difficult. So therefore, we believe that removing ring fencing or at least scaling back on some of the ring-fencing considerations will improve the outcome for customers and ultimately, therefore, will support growth in the UK.

第二點要說的是，英國是唯一實施隔離政策的主要經濟體。所以它對於英國來說相當獨​​特。因此，結果是增加了銀行的營運成本。它造成了資金效率低下，流動性受困，實際上使我們的客戶（包括企業和中小企業）面臨更高的成本。它確實也在某種程度上抑制了競爭。在英國，銀行的競爭門檻變得越來越嚴格，難度也越來越大。因此，我們認為，取消隔離措施或至少減少一些隔離措施的考慮將會改善客戶的結果，並最終支持英國的成長。

Now just to reiterate, we are very supportive of the government's growth agenda, and we will play our role in the UK for that. And as regard to the financial impact of the removal or the scaling down of ring fencing, look, we haven't done full analysis, but we believe this will be positive for both capital cost and ability to compete and support the growth of the UK economy and our customers. Pam?

現在我再次重申，我們非常支持政府的成長議程，並且我們將在英國為此發揮我們的作用。至於取消或縮小圍欄的財務影響，我們還沒有做過全面的分析，但我們相信，這對資本成本和競爭力以及支持英國經濟和客戶的成長都是有利的。帕姆？

So firstly, we managed cost to a full year number. And quarter-on-quarter, you can see some volatility. But just to clarify, our full year 2025 guidance of plus 3% is on a base of $31.9 billion, which is the full year '24, restated to the average FX for Q1 '25. So just unbundling that, the 3%, the dependencies on the inflation, investment spend and the benefit of $0.3 billion so the 1% from the P&L sales from the simplification as we guided on the Q4. And the actions that are going to realize that $300 million in the year have been already broadly taken to the P&L will come through in subsequent months.

因此，首先，我們將成本控制在全年數位範圍內。與上一季相比，你可以看到一些波動。但需要澄清的是，我們對 2025 年全年成長 3% 的預期是基於 319 億美元，即 2024 年全年，並根據 2025 年第一季的平均外匯匯率進行重述。因此，只需將其分開開來，3%、對通貨膨脹的依賴、投資支出和 3 億美元的收益，那麼從簡化的損益表中獲得的 1% 就是我們在第四季度指導的那樣。而實現今年 3 億美元已廣泛計入損益的行動將在接下來的幾個月內完成。

Kian Abouhossein, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的 Kian Abouhossein。

Great results, but clearly, the focus is on the new tariff world. And I want to try to understand, first of all, your target and guidance around interest rates, in particular, but also GDP assumptions. You mentioned mid-April, but clearly a lot happened in April. So I'm just trying to understand what date or what week we should use as a guidance in terms of interest rate assumption, if you could give maybe GDP assumptions?

成果顯著，但顯然焦點在於新的關稅世界。首先，我想嘗試了解您對利率的目標和指導，特別是 GDP 假設。您提到了四月中旬，但顯然四月發生了很多事情。因此，我只是想了解在利率假設方面我們應該使用什麼日期或哪一周作為指導，您是否可以給出 GDP 假設？

And secondly, coming to your sensitivities or your analysis around tariff impact, if you could discuss, again, interest rate assumptions, in particular GDP but also your assumptions about China as a trading counterparty in terms of your revenues versus the corridors we talk about because clearly, really in the new world, the corridor seem to be impacted as well. So are you assuming corridors can grow? Or do you assume corrugators would also be negatively impacted in a new tariff world. And lastly, in that context, can you just talk about cost flexibility as you didn't discuss it.

其次，談到您對關稅影響的敏感性或分析，如果您可以再次討論利率假設，特別是 GDP，以及您對中國作為貿易對手方的假設，就您的收入與我們談論的走廊而言，因為顯然，在新世界中，走廊似乎也受到了影響。那麼，您認為走廊可以延伸嗎？或者您認為瓦楞製造商在新的關稅制度下也會受到負面影響。最後，在這種情況下，您能否談談成本彈性，因為您沒有討論過它。

Kian, I'm going to make some broad comments on the view of corridors and overall our business. And I'll ask Pam to give you additional information on the tariff scenarios as well as in the cost implications, okay? So a couple of things to note. The first one is as we did say, the lion's share of our banking NII is driven by our deposit franchise. This deposit franchise is a hallmark of our balance sheet.

Kian，我將對走廊和我們整體業務的看法發表一些廣泛的評論。我會請帕姆向您提供有關關稅方案以及成本影響的更多信息，好嗎？有幾點要注意。第一個是，正如我們所說，我們銀行 NII 的大部分份額是由存款特許經營權推動的。這項存款特許經營權是我們資產負債表的標誌。

We run 50s loan-to-deposit ratio in three of our four businesses. And in the UK, we're on 80s, which is the lowest, Therefore, we have deposit surpluses in every currency, every geography, every business line, and this franchise is very robust and is a driver of a very important lion's share of our banking NII, very important revenue stream.

我們四大業務中的三家的貸存比都達到 50%。在英國，我們的存款盈餘處於 80% 左右，是最低的，因此，我們在每種貨幣、每個地區、每條業務線上都有存款盈餘，而且這個特許經營權非常強勁，是我們銀行 NII 中非常重要的大部分份額的驅動力，也是非常重要的收入來源。

The second, when you look at our fee income, when -- so far has continued to grow at double-digit returns, and we do expect it to continue to grow at double-digit returns in the medium term, given the underlying market opportunities and market growth as well as our own investment to continue gaining market share. So transaction banking is the one we really are diving into.

第二，當你看我們的費用收入時，到目前為止，它一直以兩位數的回報率增長，並且考慮到潛在的市場機會和市場增長以及我們自己繼續獲得市場份額的投資，我們確實預計它在中期內將繼續以兩位數的回報率增長。因此，交易銀行業務才是我們真正深入涉足的業務。

Remember, first, Transaction Bank is a wide set of products that cover various areas outside trade. And remember, a lot of our businesses, let's say, with multinational customers operating in Asia or in China, a lot of their business is in China for China or in Asia for Asia, where they produce and manufacture locally and distribute locally with limited impact on tariffs, albeit some may be impacted by tariffs.

請記住，首先，交易銀行是一套涵蓋貿易以外各個領域的廣泛產品。請記住，我們的許多業務，比如說，跨國客戶在亞洲或中國經營，他們的許多業務都在中國為中國服務，或者在亞洲為亞洲服務，他們在當地生產和製造並在當地分銷，對關稅的影響有限，儘管有些業務可能會受到關稅的影響。

But even within trade, we have seen growth of trade corridors intra-Asia or within Asia, Middle East at a very fast pace, and a number of these corridors have become structurally resilient and on a growth trajectory. Now some of the China plus one trade patterns that are still meant to ultimately distribute or export to the US will be affected for insofar that there's intra-Asia trade laws for that ultimate purpose, but there is a much bigger intra-Asia and Middle East trade flows that are two-way and that are related to domestic manufacturing for the purposes of domestic consumption, which we continue to see as structurally growing.

但即使在貿易領域，我們也看到亞洲內部或亞洲、中東內部的貿易走廊成長非常快，其中一些走廊在結構上變得有彈性，並處於成長軌道。現在，一些「中國加一」貿易模式將受到影響，因為目前存在以實現這一最終目的的亞洲內部貿易法，但亞洲內部和中東的貿易流動規模要大得多，這些貿易流動是雙向的，與國內製造業有關，目的是滿足國內消費需求，我們繼續認為這種貿易流動正在結構性增長。

Our scenarios have really looked at differentiation between the areas of structural growth and the areas that will be widely impacted by tariffs, which Pam can talk to.

我們的情景確實研究了結構性成長領域和受關稅廣泛影響的領域之間的差異，帕姆可以就此進行討論。

So firstly, just to reiterate, the $40 billion banking NII continues to be our best estimate for full year 2025. Now we've looked at a range of reasonable upside, downside assumptions, including rates, but we are not immune to all scenarios despite the stress work that we have done. Our Q1 run rate of $10.6 billion puts us on a good trajectory given that range of scenarios you've looked at all plausible upsides and downsides.

首先，重申一下，400 億美元的銀行 NII 仍然是我們對 2025 年全年的最佳估計。現在我們已經研究了一系列合理的上行、下行假設，包括利率，但儘管我們已經做了壓力工作，我們仍然無法免受所有情境的影響。考慮到您已經考慮過的所有可能的優點和缺點，我們第一季的 106 億美元的營業額使我們走上了良好的軌道。

Now, as always, there are four key drivers. The rates that we have included are based on the mid-April curves. The structural hedge will be a tailwind to this headwind of rates. We have $75 billion maturities in the remainder of the year, and they are on 2.8% yield at the moment. So there will be an upside to that.

現在，一如既往，有四個關鍵驅動因素。我們所包含的利率是基於四月中旬的曲線。結構性對沖將成為利率逆風的順風。今年剩餘時間內我們將有 750 億美元的債券到期，目前的殖利率為 2.8%。因此這會帶來好處。

The other two elements are harder to forecast, particularly in terms of balance sheet growth, as we've said before, and the loans stay muted. Having said that, loans and advances were slightly up in the first quarter of this year, primarily because Hong Kong loans and advances were stable compared to Q4 last year where they had conducted.

另外兩個因素更難預測，特別是資產負債表成長方面，正如我們之前所說，貸款保持低迷。話雖如此，今年第一季的貸款和墊款略有增加，主要是因為香港的貸款和墊款與去年第四季相比保持穩定。

Now the deposit migration trend from Hong Kong has stayed stable over last year into this year at 39%, and that is continuing even through April. So if I look at it in the round in terms of deposit behaviors of our customers, both from a corporate side and as well as from a retail side, we stay quite comfortable.

目前，香港存款遷移趨勢在今年保持穩定，與去年相比為 39%，而這一趨勢甚至持續到了 4 月。因此，如果我從企業和零售兩個角度全面檢視客戶的存款行為，我們會感到相當放心。

So on tariffs, just in terms of the broad piece, what we have looked at from a tariff perspective is, and it's all in terms of seeing the various scenarios in terms of delivering the mid-teens RoTE. I mean, firstly, we looked at our income stream beyond banking and -- which is wholesale transaction banking. And it has many more products beyond trade finance. It also is in diverse products within trade finance and their diverse global and intra-regional corridors.

因此，就關稅而言，就廣義而言，我們從關稅角度來看，都是從實現中等 RoTE 的各種情境來考慮的。我的意思是，首先，我們研究了銀行業務以外的收入來源—即批發交易銀行業務。除了貿易融資之外，它還有許多其他產品。它也存在於貿易融資及其多樣化的全球和區域內管道中的多種產品中。

Now when we have looked to the downside scenario, we've looked at higher tariffs. We have looked at impact on GDP. And we have looked more broadly on policy rates, inflation, the big picture.

現在，當我們考慮不利的情況時，我們考慮的是更高的關稅。我們已經研究了對 GDP 的影響。我們也更廣泛地審視了政策利率、通貨膨脹等整體情況。

But again, to say we have not looked at GDP to the stress level of a downside scenario that we have called out in our release, which is like a double-digit contraction of GDP as we saw in the COVID period. So if you look at all that, we come to a low single-digit percentage impact on revenues. And within that and within the incremental $500 million ECLs, we stay very confident for our mid-teens ROTE for the next three years.

但再次強調，我們還沒有將 GDP 視為我們在發布中提到的下行情景的壓力水平，這就像我們在 COVID 時期看到的那樣，GDP 出現了兩位數的萎縮。因此，如果你看所有這些，我們會發現對收入的影響只有個位數的百分比。在此範圍內以及增量 5 億美元 ECL 的範圍內，我們對未來三年中等程度的 ROTE 非常有信心。

Now the broader impacts are going to be hard to quantify. These are your second, third order impacts, but we'll continue to monitor them through our various scenarios and review them quarter-on-quarter. On costs, our cost trajectory is on track. And given this, there's no shift on that. And we will still continue through our envelope to be able to invest in the areas which we have been, as Georges has said, because we can see the direct benefit coming very quickly in those areas even in the current environment and continuing through April, and that's primarily on the well side.

現在，更廣泛的影響將很難量化。這些是您的第二、第三次影響，但我們將繼續透過各種場景監控它們，並逐季進行審查。在成本方面，我們的成本軌跡正在正常進行。有鑑於此，這一點不會改變。正如喬治所說，我們仍將繼續透過我們的資金來投資我們已經投資的領域，因為我們可以看到即使在當前環境下，這些領域的直接利益也會很快顯現，並且這種利益將持續到四月份，而這主要發生在油井方面。

Amit Goel, Mediobanca.

Amit Goel，Mediobanca。

Potentially follow-up, actually, to Kian's question. But -- so essentially, the plausible tariff downside scenario is pretty slow closer to the ECL downside rather than the downside two type case. Again, just coming back in terms of the broader profitability mid-teens target. So essentially, you're saying that if we were to see that plausible downside scenario, you still believe you can achieve that mid-teens profitability level and that's before factoring in any further cost actions? Or would that be with any kind of rejigging or additional cost action taken by the group to mitigate some of that impact?

實際上，這可能是對 Kian 問題的後續回答。但是 — — 因此從本質上講，合理的關稅下行情景相當接近於 ECL 下行，而不是下行兩種類型的情況。再次，回到更廣泛的獲利能力中期目標方面。所以本質上，您是說，如果我們看到這種可能的下行情景，您仍然相信您可以實現十幾歲的盈利水平，而且這還沒有考慮任何進一步的成本行動？或者該集團是否會採取任何形式的調整或額外成本措施來減輕部分影響？

And then secondly, I just wanted to check, when I look at the downside one ECL scenario now versus a full year, it seems like the China and Hong Kong drawdown is not quite as severe. I see the US is maybe a little bit 30 bps more severe so I was also just curious why that downside scenario is not quite as negative perhaps as what you assessed at the full year stage?

其次，我只是想檢查一下，當我查看當​​前預期信用損失 (ECL) 情景相對於全年的下行趨勢時，似乎中國和香港的損失並不那麼嚴重。我認為美國的情況可能要嚴重 30 個基點，所以我也很好奇為什麼下行情境並不像您在全年階段評估的那麼糟糕？

Amit, on your -- so I'm going to ask Pam to comment on your second question. But on your first question, look, we're not going to give more details than what we shared. But I think your analogy to say that it's a downside one like scenario in the sense that it is adverse, but plausible is correct. And within that scenario, without additional cost actions than the one that we have set out to do and are on track for doing and obviously committed to do. We are confident we can achieve our targets, in particular, our targets of mid-teen returns for '25, '26 and '27. Pam?

阿米特，關於你的——所以我要請帕姆對你的第二個問題發表評論。但對於您的第一個問題，我們不會提供比我們分享的更多的細節。但我認為，您所說的「這是一個不利但合理的情況」的類比是正確的。在這種情況下，除了我們已經制定的、正在按計劃進行的、顯然承諾要進行的行動之外，無需採取任何額外的成本行動。我們有信心實現我們的目標，特別是實現 25、26 和 27 年中等水準回報率的目標。帕姆？

Thanks. So just in terms of the scenarios to confirm, they are not identical scenarios, but in terms of severity and plausibility, you're right in the ballpark because the ECL scenario stresses a lot of things on interest rates, inflation, et cetera, from a range of factors, and this one on tariffs is quite specific on the revenue line.

謝謝。因此，僅就需要確認的情景而言，它們不是完全相同的情景，但就嚴重性和合理性而言，您的判斷是正確的，因為 ECL 情景從一系列因素的角度強調了利率、通貨膨脹等很多方面，而這一關於關稅的情景在收入方面相當具體。

And to clarify on ECLs, we had to build our reserve for this quarter, change the weightings of the downside one from 15% to 30%. And when we look at the $500 million potential impact, that is if you change that downside one scenario weighting to 100%. So just to say that's a $500 million additional to the $150 million.

為了澄清預期信用損失，我們必須為本季建立儲備，將下行儲備的權重從 15% 改為 30%。當我們考慮 5 億美元的潛在影響時，那就是如果你將下行情境的權重改為 100%。所以可以說，這是在 1.5 億美元的基礎上額外增加的 5 億美元。

Now in terms of Hong Kong and China CRE, absolutely, in terms of both from an individual customer level as well on the forward economic guidance, given the starting point, there is a lesser impact, and overall there has been very little noise from a Hong Kong CRE and China CRE other than isolated names in this quarter. There can be credit downgrades over a period of time. I saw a few now, but the impact from an RWA perspective is very modest.

現在就香港和中國企業房地產而言，絕對如此，無論是從個人客戶層面還是從前瞻性經濟指引來看，考慮到起點，影響都較小，總體而言，本季度香港企業房地產和中國企業房地產除了個別名稱外，幾乎沒有什麼動靜。一段時間內，信用評級可能會下降。我現在看到了一些，但從 RWA 角度來看影響非常小。

If you look from a US perspective, also there was a specific name. And when we look at the credit downgrades, so that's also in the quarter. I wouldn't really build any trend from this quarter into a full year. And all these factors, bottom line are part of the scenario analysis, which we do on upside and downside before we reaffirm our OT guidance -- target.

如果從美國的角度來看，也有一個特定的名稱。當我們看到信用評級下調時，這也是在本季度。我實際上不會將本季度的任何趨勢推向全年。所有這些因素，歸根結底都是情境分析的一部分，在我們重申我們的 OT 指導（目標）之前，我們會對上行和下行進行分析。

Gurpreet Singh Sahi, Goldman Sachs.

古普雷特·辛格·薩希，高盛。

So really on banking NII, a couple, if I may, please. First is Q-on-Q. Banking NII held up pretty much flat, whereas interest rates would have added a headwind of, as per my calculation, $170 million. So can you please double quick and tell us on how much was the benefit from the deposit pass-through being not that high and then improved asset mix and then the hedge structural hedge. That's one.

那麼，如果可以的話，請就銀行 NII 談談幾點。首先是問答環節。銀行業 NII 基本上保持平穩，根據我的計算，利率將帶來 1.7 億美元的不利影響。那麼，您能否快速告訴我們，存款轉增帶來的收益有多少，以及資產組合的改善和對沖結構性對沖的收益有多少。那是一個。

And second, in the $42 billion -- again, on banking $42 billion -- around $42 billion guidance, how much are we assuming for average interest-earning assets growth? Because that has -- if I see deposit growth has been consistent, but that somehow on a YoY basis is now showing up as 4% growth. But then Q-on-Q, there is no growth and previously on YoY also, we could not show any growth? And then what is the around? Is 41.5% outcome around 42%. Does that tick the box and help us meet the target.

其次，在 420 億美元（再次強調，是 420 億美元銀行業務）的指導金額中，我們假設平均生息資產成長率是多少？因為——如果我看到存款成長一直是一致的，但不知何故，同比現在卻顯示為 4% 的成長。但是季度環比沒有成長，而同比也沒有顯示任何成長？那麼周圍是什麼？結果是41.5%左右，約42%。這是否符合要求並有助於我們實現目標？

I am going to ask Pam to address both of your questions on banking NII.

我將請 Pam 來回答您關於銀行 NII 的兩個問題。

So firstly, banking NII was flat on a quarter-on-quarter on a constant currency basis, excluding notable items in Argentina. Now we don't split out the dollar impact of every moving part, but let me just unbundle. So the headwinds were to fewer days in the quarter as well as lower interest rates. But the tailwinds was reinvestment of maturing hedge assets at high yields, a bit of change in the mix of our market treasury assets as well as the benefit of deposit pass-throughs, particularly in the UK, which come through with a delay of 90 days so the interest rate cuts, which we saw in August came in through for a full quarter in this quarter. And then we saw a bit of a tail of the November cuts as well. So that's how is the impact there.

首先，以固定匯率計算，銀行業 NII 與上一季持平，不包括阿根廷的顯著項目。現在我們不會拆分每個活動部分對美元的影響，但讓我將其分解開來。因此，本季面臨的阻力是天數減少以及利率下降。但順風是對高收益到期對沖資產的再投資，我們市場國庫資產組合的一點變化，以及存款轉手的好處，特別是在英國，存款轉手延遲了 90 天，所以我們在 8 月份看到的降息在本季度持續了整整一個季​​度。然後，我們也看到了十一月減產的一些尾聲。這就是那裡的影響。

In terms of your other question, of course, we look at various upside and downsides in that $42 billion. And I just want to reiterate, that $42 billion is not an underpin, it is just around $42 billion. Our current best estimate based upon what we see in terms of deposit betas based upon what we see in terms of actual deposit flows coming through updated, not just for the quarter but also considering the trend we've seen through April.

至於您的另一個問題，當然，我們會考慮這 420 億美元的各種好處和壞處。我只想重申，420 億美元並不是基礎金額，而只是大約 420 億美元。我們目前的最佳估計是基於我們所看到的存款貝塔係數，以及我們所看到的實際存款流量，不僅是針對本季度，還考慮到了我們在 4 月份看到的趨勢。

Andrew Coombs, Citigroup.

花旗集團的安德魯·庫姆斯。

If I could have a couple on the organizational simplification and then also just one clarification on well. On the organizational simplification, you previously guided to $1.8 billion of restructuring costs. And you said the majority of that is expected to be booked in 2025. I think you only took $141 million in Q1. So presumably, we should expect a big step-up in the restructuring charges from Q2 onwards to the rest of the year? And then the second question attached to this is, you said that the actions taken to date will already translate into $300 million of annualized savings.

如果我可以就組織簡化提出一些問題，然後也澄清一點。關於組織簡化，您之前預計重組成本為 18 億美元。您說其中大部分預計在 2025 年完成預訂。我認為你在第一季只賺了 1.41 億美元。那麼，我們可以推測，從第二季開始到今年剩餘時間，重組費用將大幅增加嗎？與此相關的第二個問題是，您說迄今為止採取的行動已經轉化為每年 3 億美元的節省。

I appreciate in Q1, you've had very little of that. But nonetheless, you're still guiding to $300 million for the full year '25 when you've already achieved $300 million annualized and there's presumably more to come over the remainder of the year with the additional restructuring. So can you just clarify it now on why more of the savings not flowing into full year '25 compared to '26. And then on wealth clarification, given the new segmental split, is it possible to get the split of the Asian invested assets and $16 billion net new invested assets this quarter that's attributable to Hong Kong?

我很欣賞在第一季你遇到的情況，但這種情況很少發生。但儘管如此，您仍將 2025 年全年的目標定為 3 億美元，而您目前已實現了 3 億美元的年化收入，隨著額外的重組，今年剩餘時間可能還會有更多收入。那麼，您現在能否澄清一下，為什麼與 26 年相比，更多的儲蓄沒有流入 25 年全年？然後，在財富澄清方面，考慮到新的分部劃分，是否有可能將本季亞洲投資資產和歸屬於香港的 160 億美元淨新投資資產進行劃分？

Andrew, I'm going to ask Pam to address your -- the first two questions with regard to the organization simplification. Just saying that we will give -- as I said earlier, we will give a more thorough update at the interim results. And on your final question, let us take it forward and see what we can communicate. $16 billion of net new invested assets in Asia with the majority in Hong Kong, but we will take it forward to see what additional granularity we're likely to share. Pam?

安德魯，我想請帕姆回答你關於組織簡化的前兩個問題。只是說我們會給出——正如我之前所說，我們將在中期結果中提供更全面的更新。關於您的最後一個問題，讓我們繼續討論，看看我們能溝通些什麼。亞洲新增淨投資資產達 160 億美元，其中大部分在香港，但我們將繼續研究更多可能分享的細節。帕姆？

So firstly, in terms of the actions taken and the P&L being coming through for the year. The actions taken typically is when you have colleagues put through at risk and decisions made, communicated. There is always a time lag typically between that and colleagues leaving the platform. Typically, it tends to be about a quarter, 90 days.

首先，就所採取的行動和年度損益而言。通常採取的行動是當你的同事面臨風險並做出決定並進行溝通時。從那時到同事離開平台之間通常總會有一個時間差。通常約為一個季度，即 90 天。

So when you say an action has been taken, you know it saving is going to come through, but there is going to be a time lag between that decision and the savings feeding into the P&L. So when we said the majority of the actions have already been taken, the annualized savings that we calculated, it's for the full year.

因此，當您說已採取某項行動時，您知道節省的資金將會出現，但在該決定和節省的資金計入損益表之間會有一個時間差。因此，當我們說大多數行動已經採取時，我們計算出的年度節省金額是全年的。

So it's not as though these actions are already banked in and there's going to be further. So that's the main piece. Now on restructuring costs, you're absolutely right that there is going to be the majority of the restructuring costs taken in 2025 rather than 2026. And I would expect most of that to come through Q2, Q3 and then some Q4 and then tapering down as we go into 2026.

因此，這些行動並不是已經生效，而且還會進一步實施。這就是主要內容。現在關於重組成本，您完全正確，大部分重組成本將在 2025 年而不是 2026 年發生。我預計其中大部分將在第二季、第三季和第四季實現，然後在進入 2026 年時逐漸減少。

Ed Firth, KBW.

艾德·弗斯（Ed Firth），KBW。

I just had a couple. The first one, I noticed that your cost guidance is based on an average exchange rate in Q1. But the US dollar, I think, is what off about 6% since then. So I assume that if we were actually to do that at today's exchange rate, your cost number will be somewhat higher than that. And I'm just trying to check, is your revenue guidance also based on those exchange rates.

我剛剛吃了幾個。第一個問題，我注意到您的成本指引是基於第一季的平均匯率。但我認為，自那時以來，美元已經下跌了約 6%。因此我認為，如果我們真的按照今天的匯率來做這件事，你的成本數字將會比這略高一些。我只是想確認一下，您的收入預測是否也基於這些匯率。

So should -- is it effectively like both where we should both gear up both revenue and costs for the weaker dollar in terms of our expectations. That's the first point. And then I guess partly related to that, are we actually in the plausible downside scenario now?

那麼，這是否實際上就像我們預期的那樣，我們應該為疲軟的美元增加收入和成本。這是第一點。然後我想部分與此相關的是，我們現在是否真的處於合理的下行情境中？

I mean if I'm looking at trade flows from China to the US are down, what, 45% bookings, something like that. I mean that feels to me like a pretty downside scenario. So should we assume that as we go through Q2 and Q3, we are actually in that scenario now. Is that effectively where we are, assuming nothing changes. And I guess nobody has any idea what will happen in terms of the changes, but assuming we stay where we are today.

我的意思是，如果我看到從中國到美國的貿易流量下降了，例如 45% 的預訂量，諸如此類。我的意思是，對我來說，這是一個相當不利的情況。那麼，我們是否應該假設，當我們經歷第二季和第三季時，我們實際上就處於這種情況。假設一切不改變，那麼我們現在的狀況是否確實如此？我想沒有人知道會發生什麼變化，但假設我們保持現在的狀態。

And then I guess my second question was just about BoCom. I just can't really understand the accounting because you're still running with a valuation that's what, $10 billion above the market value, but you didn't subscribe for new shares with the capital raise, which I sort of assume you would have done if you had thought it really was worth that much more.

我想我的第二個問題就是關於交通銀行的。我真的無法理解這種會計處理方式，因為你仍然按照高於市場價值 100 億美元的估值運營，但你並沒有在融資時認購新股，而我猜想如果你認為它真的值那麼多錢的話你就會這麼做。

So should we be expecting you to actually track that now down to what would be like a market price rather than just the 1.6 million, should we be revisiting how you do the sort of -- I think you call it value and news don't use something like that?

那麼，我們是否應該期望您現在真正追蹤到市場價格，而不僅僅是 160 萬，我們是否應該重新審視您如何做到這一點 - 我認為您稱之為價值，而新聞不使用這樣的東西？

Let me take your plausible downside scenario. And I'll ask Pam to address your cost -- the cost question as well as the BoCom accounting question. So look, the adverse plausible downside scenario that is further adverse from where we are today with significantly higher global tariffs on major trading blocks on an aggregate basis. And we've looked at their impact across, obviously, our trade business, but more importantly, across overall, our volumes and the economic outlook of our businesses on the whole. We do recognize that there is uncertainty, and it's very difficult to understand how much downside or upside there is in the future outlook for this.

讓我來談談您認為合理的不利情況。我會請帕姆解決您的成本問題—成本問題以及交通銀行的會計問題。因此，從整體來看，不利的、合理的下行情境比我們目前的情況更加不利，主要貿易區的全球關稅總體上大幅提高。我們已經研究了它們對我們的貿易業務的影響，但更重要的是，對我們的整體業務量和整體經濟前景的影響。我們確實認識到存在不確定性，而且很難了解未來前景有多少下行空間或上行空間。

But we believe this plausible downside scenario is not the expected scenario in it is a lower probability downside than the expected scenario. Pam?

但我們認為，這種可能的下行情景並不是預期情景，因為它發生的機率低於預期情景。帕姆？

So I agree the downside scenario is not something where we are now because the downside scenario clearly has a broader impact in terms of GDP and other areas, which then gives the significant impacts that we talked about, just to make that clear. And you're absolutely right, the target cost base of $31.9 billion, equivalent to full year '24 costs was rebased on first quarter's average exchange rates, all things being equal, US depreciation would put an upward pressure on an absolute cost but in the same way, it will put an upward pressure. I have some benefit on the revenues, and we will do that on the same principle quarter-on-quarter as we progress.

因此，我同意下行情境不是我們現在所處的情況，因為下行情境顯然對 GDP 和其他領域有更廣泛的影響，這會產生我們談到的重大影響，只是為了說明這一點。您說得完全正確，319 億美元的目標成本基數（相當於 24 年全年成本）是根據第一季度的平均匯率重新計算的，在其他條件相同的情況下，美元貶值會對絕對成本造成上行壓力，但同樣，它也會產生上行壓力。我從收入中獲得了一定的好處，隨著我們的進步，我們將按照同樣的原則逐季度這樣做。

FX rates have been volatile. We'll continue to update you quarter-on-quarter. So in terms of BoCom, just in sort of simple terms, at this point of time, we continue to say that BoCom is an associate. We have done the assessment as we do every year in terms of further impairment. And there has been no impact for this quarter.

外匯匯率一直波動。我們將繼續按季度向您更新最新情況。因此，就交通銀行而言，簡單來說，目前我們仍然認為交通銀行是一家聯營公司。和每年一樣，我們對進一步損害進行了評估。本季沒有受到影響。

The dilution impact into P&L, we will have an accounting impact on the completion of the share issuance, and that's where that will be taken. But I just want to reiterate all said and done. There is an insignificant impact from this dilution on our CET1. And because it's a material notable item, there is no impact on dividend or distribution.

稀釋對損益的影響，將對股票發行的完成產生會計影響，這就是我們要考慮的問題。但我只是想重申所有說過和做過的事情。這種稀釋對我們的 CET1 的影響微不足道。而且由於這是一個重大值得注意的項目，因此不會對股息或分配產生影響。

Yes, sorry about that. No, I just -- I don't understand the logic why you didn't subscribe for this -- for more capital in the sense that if it is worth that much more it would seem to me that it was an opportunity to put more capital in and to value the to get the upside in due course.

是的，很抱歉。不，我只是——我不明白你為什麼不認購這個——為了更多的資本，如果它的價值更高，在我看來，這是一個投入更多資本並評估其價值以在適當的時候獲得上行空間的機會。

So Ed, the -- there was -- the share issuance was subscribed by government or government-related entities in China. We were happy with our holding as it is. And therefore, we're happy with the outcome. And with regards to the actual accounting value, probably kind of point you to the Investor Relations team, which can take you through some of the specificities of this equity accounting principles, which are quite unique in the way we treat the associate accounting BoCom. But I just want to reemphasize, we're happy with our holding in BoCom. We're happy with our strategic relationship with BoCom and the fact that they give us exposure to the domestic economy in China, be it retail, SME outlook, which is not something our organic business is involved in.

因此，艾德，此次股票發行是由中國政府或政府相關實體認購的。我們對目前的持股感到滿意。因此，我們對結果很滿意。關於實際會計價值，可能需要您聯絡投資者關係團隊，他們可以向您介紹權益會計原則的一些特殊性，這些原則在我們處理關聯會計 BoCom 的方式上非常獨特。但我只想再次強調，我們對持有交通銀行的股份感到滿意。我們對與交通銀行的策略關係感到滿意，他們讓我們接觸到中國國內經濟，無論是零售業還是中小企業前景，而這些都不是我們的有機業務所涉及的領域。

And very importantly, what Pam said, the valuation in our NAV is deducted from CET1, which means these impairments do not have -- or have a very minimal second order impact on our CET1 ratio and therefore, also do not impact our distribution capability.

而且非常重要的是，正如帕姆所說，我們的資產淨值中的估值是從 CET1 中扣除的，這意味著這些減值對我們的 CET1 比率沒有或只有極小的二階影響，因此也不會影響我們的分銷能力。

And Ed, very happy to offline go through with you on the equity accounting treatment and the rest in detail, if you so wish.

如果您願意的話，Ed，我非常樂意與您線下詳細討論權益會計處理和其他事宜。

Katherine Lei, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的凱瑟琳雷 (Katherine Lei)。

I have two questions. The first one, I still want to ask about the tariff scenario because I think for analysts, at least investors in this part of the world, I think it's partly -- it's widely expected that the Chinese government will have more stimulus policy because of the tariffs. So in your downside scenario analysis, have you incorporated some of the positive impact from the stimulus policies, which could potentially be benefiting the Hong Kong China market. So I think this is number one.

我有兩個問題。第一個問題，我仍然想問關稅情景，因為我認為對於分析師，至少是這個地區的投資者來說，我認為部分原因是——人們普遍預計中國政府將因關稅而出台更多刺激政策。那麼，在您的下行情境分析中，您是否考慮了刺激政策的一些正面影響，這些影響可能會使中國香港市場受益。所以我認為這是第一位的。

Number two, I still want to ask about the loan growth because now the guidance is that there will be muted loan demand in 2025. So what sort of tariff scenarios that we are -- like when we're giving this type of guidance, what tariff environments are we incorporating? And also that is there any guidance on, say, for example, like deposit globe and also banking asset or interest-generating asset growth? Like how should we look at this thing.

第二，我仍然想問貸款成長情況，因為現在的指導意見是 2025 年貸款需求將會低迷。那麼，當我們給出這種類型的指導時，我們考慮的是什麼樣的關稅情景，我們納入了什麼樣的關稅環境？另外，是否有任何關於存款範圍以及銀行資產或生息資產成長的指導？比如我們該如何看待這個事情。

Katherine, I'm going to make some comments on your first question, and I'll ask Pam then to take it forward as well as the loan growth question, which gives you an overlook. So firstly, we recognize indeed, there is a lot of potential for China to take policy measures and other measures to stimulate the economy, and we would be very encouraged by that.

凱瑟琳，我將對您的第一個問題發表一些評論，然後我會請帕姆繼續討論這個問題以及貸款增長問題，這讓您有所了解。首先，我們確實意識到，中國在採取政策措施和其他措施刺激經濟方面有很大潛力，我們對此感到非常鼓舞。

We're confident about the outlook for China. We're optimistic that these measures as they are taken and they will be taken will have a positive impact on the economy. We believe in the foundational strength of the Chinese economy, and we're very encouraged to see the pickup in retail sales, and therefore, the pickup in domestic consumption also.

我們對中國的前景充滿信心。我們樂觀地認為，這些措施一旦實施，將對經濟產生正面影響。我們相信中國經濟的基本實力，我們非常高興地看到零售額的回升，以及國內消費的回升。

So on the whole, our main scenario is that we are confident in the medium- to long-term outlook in China. This being said, in a plausible adverse downside scenario, we have not taken into account some of these potential positive impacts, which may be or not likely to come. Pam?

因此，總體而言，我們的主要觀點是，我們對中國的中長期前景充滿信心。話雖如此，在可能出現的不利下行情境中，我們尚未考慮到一些可能會或不太可能出現的潛在正面影響。帕姆？

So absolutely being a stress downside scenario plausible, but severe, we typically take the downside. We don't take the upside of the mitigating actions or any other policy measures. It's purely tariffs and evaluatory tariffs in a plausible range. So all said and done, I just want to reaffirm, it was all calculated as part of the target RoTE guidance that we are giving.

因此，當壓力下行情境確實存在但又十分嚴重時，我們通常會選擇承受下行壓力。我們不採取緩解措施或任何其他政策措施的好處。這純粹是合理範圍內的關稅和評估關稅。總而言之，我只想重申，這一切都是作為我們提供的目標 RoTE 指導的一部分進行計算的。

On loan growth, the situation is in some ways similar to where we were at the end of Q4 because macroeconomic uncertainty delays decision-making. So we are not seeing any of those CapEx decisions being brought forward or delayed. They were delayed. They will continue to be delayed hopefully at some stage when some certainty remains, there will be loan growth. We are also monitoring very closely to see if there is any increase in drawdowns just like we observed in Q2 of 2020. At this point of time, there's no increase in drawdowns.

就貸款成長而言，情況在某種程度上與第四季末的情況類似，因為宏觀經濟的不確定性延遲了決策。因此，我們沒有看到任何資本支出決策被提前或延遲。他們被耽擱了。他們將繼續推遲，希望在某個階段，當仍有一些確定性時，貸款就會成長。我們也在密切監測，看看是否會出現像 2020 年第二季度那樣的提款增加的情況。目前，虧損尚未增加。

So overall, from a loan growth perspective, I would say, still muted in terms of what we are seeing. The only thing I would say is that if there is continued tariff uncertainty, you will see maybe a little bit pickup from a OpEx perspective on working capital because when you have to pay import duties upfront and there's some delays in some of the monies coming and so on. So that will have an impact.

因此，總體而言，從貸款成長的角度來看，我認為，就我們所看到的情況而言，貸款成長仍然處於低迷狀態。我唯一想說的是，如果關稅不確定性持續存在，從營運支出的角度來看，營運資本可能會略有回升，因為你必須預先支付進口關稅，而且部分款項到帳會出現一些延遲等等。所以這會產生影響。

But from a materiality perspective, the real driver for our banking NII guidance of $42 billion is really deposits for which we have a very strong franchise. We are in a privileged position to be a trusted partner for our customers, and we expect that to grow. Of course, there will be a bit of seasonal fluctuation quarter-on-quarter. But overall, that trend has continued.

但從實質角度來看，我們銀行業 NII 指導值達到 420 億美元的真正驅動力實際上是存款，因為我們在這方面擁有非常強大的特許經營權。作為客戶值得信賴的合作夥伴，我們擁有優越的地位，並且我們期望這種地位能夠持續提升。當然，季度間會有一點季節性波動。但總體而言，這種趨勢仍在持續。

Lan Jiahui, CICC.

蘭嘉輝，中金公司。

My question is also about tariffs. Could you please give an example of how our major clients react to tariff policy in April? Are they facing a sharp decline in business demand? Or are they actively seeking the solutions to reduce the effect of tariffs or just cut their business? And how HSBC help them navigate through the challenge from tariffs. And beyond risks, have we seen any new business opportunities for HSBC in this context?

我的問題也與關稅有關。您能否舉例說明我們的主要客戶對4月關稅政策的反應？他們是否面臨業務需求的急劇下降？或者他們正在積極尋求解決方案以減少關稅的影響或只是削減業務？以及匯豐銀行如何幫助他們應對關稅挑戰。除了風險之外，我們是否看到匯豐銀行在此背景下有何新的商業機會？

So yeah, indeed, customer -- I mean, look, first, the customers aren't taking any decisions in panic, customers essentially a wait and see mode. Number of CapEx or large investments have been slowed down and certainly trade between China and the US, we've seen a major slowdown. But on the whole, customers are looking at their business models. They are looking at their supply chains. They're looking at ways to create more resilience in their business. And we're definitely here to help them.

是的，確實，顧客——我的意思是，首先，顧客不會在恐慌中做出任何決定，顧客基本上處於觀望狀態。資本支出或大型投資的數量已經放緩，當然，我們看到了中美之間的貿易大幅放緩。但總體而言，客戶正在審視他們的商業模式。他們正在審視自己的供應鏈。他們正在尋找方法來增強業務的彈性。我們一定會幫助他們。

As I said earlier, we are our customers' trusted banking partner. They trust the strength of our financial strength, the strength of our balance sheet and our proposition. They trust the stability of our commitments to support them through their needs and through all predictable and unpredictable times.

正如我之前所說，我們是客戶值得信賴的銀行夥伴。他們相信我們的財務實力、資產負債表的實力以及我們的主張。他們相信我們堅定地承諾，在他們需要的時候以及在所有可預測和不可預測的時期為他們提供支持。

And very importantly, they trust our expertise. We have more than 5,000 trade experts in more than 50 jurisdictions, working with clients to help them think through what this means for their business model and now how they can help them adapt and adjust and create resilience. So therefore, in an environment like this one, we expect to deepen relationships with clients.

非常重要的是，他們信任我們的專業。我們在 50 多個司法管轄區擁有 5,000 多名貿易專家，與客戶合作，幫助他們思考這對他們的商業模式意味著什麼，以及如何幫助他們適應、調整和創造彈性。因此，在這樣的環境中，我們希望加深與客戶的關係。

We expect to acquire new clients and to consolidate our position as a leading trade bank and we expect to make, hopefully, a difference for our customers in navigating these uncertainties. Thank you very much, Ian.

我們希望獲得新客戶並鞏固我們作為領先貿易銀行的地位，並且我們希望能夠為我們的客戶在應對這些不確定性方面帶來一些幫助。非常感謝，伊恩。

I think we have addressed all the questions. So I want to take this opportunity to thank all of you for your questions. So looking in closing, we had a strong quarter marked by momentum in our earnings, discipline in our execution and confidence in our ability to deliver our targets. Neil and the team are available for any follow-up questions with our Investor Relations expert. Meanwhile, Pam and I look forward to speaking with you again soon. Enjoy the rest of the day. Thank you.

我認為我們已經解答了所有問題。所以我想藉此機會感謝大家提出的問題。總而言之，我們本季表現強勁，獲利勢頭強勁，執行紀律嚴明，對實現目標的能力充滿信心。Neil 和團隊可以向我們的投資者關係專家解答任何後續問題。同時，帕姆和我期待很快再次與您交談。享受這一天的剩餘時間。謝謝。

Thank you very much, ladies and gentlemen, for joining today's webinar. You may now disconnect your lines.

女士們、先生們，非常感謝各位參加今天的網路研討會。現在您可以斷開線路了。