滙豐控股 (HSBC) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

(audio in progress) -- Case, Head of Debt Investor Relations; and Mark Phin, Head of Equity Investor Relations.

（音訊正在播放）－凱斯（Case），債務投資者關係主管；以及股權投資者關係主管馬克·菲恩（Mark Phin）。

I'll keep my opening remarks brief as I'm sure you've had a chance to go through the results already today. As usual, there's a comprehensive deck for fixed income investors available on our website, and we'll share a few selected slides as I talk. Once I'm finished, we'll go straight to Q&A.

我的開場白將會很簡短，因為我相信你們今天已經有機會了解結果了。像往常一樣，我們的網站上為固定收益投資者提供了全面的演示文稿，在我演講時，我們將分享一些精選的幻燈片。我講完後，我們將直接進入問答環節。

So we're pleased with our strong 2024 results, which sets us up well for 2025 as we celebrate our 160th year. We've delivered record profit before tax of $32.3 billion or $34.1 billion excluding notable items. The return on tangible equity was 14.6% or 16% excluding notable items in line with our mid-teens ROTE guidance. We announced a total of $26.9 billion of distribution to our shareholders in respect of '24, while retaining a CET1 ratio above our target operating range.

因此，我們對 2024 年的強勁業績感到非常滿意，這為我們在 2025 年慶祝 160 週年奠定了良好的基礎。我們實現了創紀錄的稅前利潤 323 億美元，若不包括重大項目則為 341 億美元。有形資產回報率為 14.6%（剔除重要項目後為 16%），符合我們中等程度的 ROTE 指引。我們宣布，24 年度向股東分配總計 269 億美元，同時維持 CET1 比率高於我們的目標營運範圍。

In the fourth quarter, we announced actions to simplify HSBC, empowering our two home markets, the UK and Hong Kong. We've enhanced the focus on our wealth proposition via the creation of International Wealth and Premier Banking, IWPB for short, and combined our two wholesale businesses Commercial Banking and Global Banking and Markets into one Corporate and Institutional Banking division, CIB.

第四季度，我們宣布了簡化匯豐的舉措，增強我們兩個本土市場－英國和香港的實力。我們透過創造國際財富和卓越銀行（簡稱 IWPB）加強了對財富主張的關注，並將我們的兩大批量業務——商業銀行和全球銀行和市場——合併為一個企業和機構銀行部門（CIB）。

Furthermore, today, we've announced a commitment to deliver cost efficiency savings of $1.5 billion over the next two years that will have no meaningful impact on revenue. We are also aiming to reallocate around $1.5 billion of additional costs from non-strategic activities to priority growth areas over the medium term. As an outcome of these actions, we have confidence that we will generate a mid-teens return on tangible equity in 2025, '26 and '27.

此外，今天，我們宣布承諾在未來兩年內實現 15 億美元的成本效率節約，這不會對收入產生任何重大影響。我們還計劃在中期內將約 15 億美元的額外成本從非戰略活動重新分配到優先成長領域。透過這些行動，我們有信心在 2025、2026 和 2027 年實現中等水準的有形股本回報率。

HSBC continues to be strongly capital generative with profits delivering 340 basis points of CET1 in '24, which have largely been used to fund both dividends and buybacks to support our equity investment case. Our CET1 ratio of 14.9% remains above our target operating range of 14% to 14.5%, and you should expect us to bring it down back to this level over time. At the midpoint of our target operating range, we will have over 300 basis points of headroom above our MDA hurdle requirements.

匯豐銀行持續保持強勁的資本創造能力，2024 年的利潤為 CET1 帶來了 340 個基點，這些利潤主要用於支付股息和回購，以支持我們的股權投資案例。我們的 CET1 比率為 14.9%，仍高於我們 14% 至 14.5% 的目標營運範圍，您應該預期我們會隨著時間的推移將其降至這一水平。在我們的目標操作範圍的中點，我們將擁有高於 MDA 障礙要求 300 個基點以上的空間。

We have built up our structural hedge by more than $200 billion since June '22, which has contributed to our sensitivity to a 100 basis point fall in interest rates dropping by more than half. During '24, we also increased the duration of the hedge from 2.8 to 3.1 years and we will reinvest around $95 billion of assets in each of '25 and '26, which currently have a yield of around 2.8%.

自22年6月以來，我們已經建立了超過2000億美元的結構性對沖，這導致我們對利率下降100個基點的敏感度下降了一半以上。在24年，我們也將對沖期限從2.8年增加到3.1年，並且我們將在25年和26年分別再投資約950億美元的資產，目前的收益率約為2.8%。

Excluding the impacts of the sales of our businesses in Canada and Argentina, the banking NII quarterly run rate has been fairly stable through 2024, and we expect banking NII of around $42 billion in 2025. This is based on the current market interest rate outlook and our own growth projections.

不包括我們在加拿大和阿根廷的業務銷售的影響，到 2024 年，銀行 NII 季度運行率一直相當穩定，我們預計 2025 年銀行 NII 將達到 420 億美元左右。這是基於當前市場利率前景和我們自己的成長預測。

Now turning to credit quality. The ECL charge for the year was $3.4 billion or 36 basis points as a cost of risk, which is in the middle of our 30 to 40 basis point guidance. The fourth quarter charge was $1.4 billion or 57 basis points, which included $0.3 billion related to two clients, one in the UK and one in the Mainland China commercial real estate sector. We expect our 2025 charge to be within our medium-term planning range of 30 to 40 basis points.

現在來談談信用品質。全年預期信用損失費用為 34 億美元，即風險成本 36 個基點，位於我們 30 至 40 個基點指導範圍的中間。第四季的費用為 14 億美元或 57 個基點，其中包括與兩個客戶相關的 3 億美元，一個在英國，一個在中國大陸的商業房地產領域。我們預計 2025 年的費用將在我們的中期規劃範圍內 30 到 40 個基點。

Stage 3 balances were 2.4% of customer loans, broadly stable in the fourth quarter, but up from 2% at the end of '23. The increase during the year was driven by our Hong Kong commercial real estate book, which had a limited impact on the ECL charge due to the high levels of collateralization of this lending.

第三階段餘額佔客戶貸款的 2.4%，在第四季度基本保持穩定，但高於 23 年底的 2%。本年度的成長主要得益於我們的香港商業房地產帳簿，由於該類貸款的抵押水平較高，因此對預期信用損失費用的影響有限。

Next, moving on to the balance sheet and issuance. As I noted earlier, our CET1 position is a strong point at 14.9%. Our MREL ratio was 32.1%, broadly flat on the year-end, 4.8-percentage points above our requirements.

接下來，討論資產負債表和發行。正如我之前提到的，我們的 CET1 地位十分牢固，達到 14.9%。我們的 MREL 比率為 32.1%，與年底基本持平，比我們的要求高出 4.8 個百分點。

This morning, alongside results, we published an additional announcement affecting some of our legacy Tier 2 debt and one of our older senior holdco notes. In order to ensure we avoid infecting our remaining Tier 2 securities at the end of the CRR grandfathering period in June, we have proactively chosen to stop recognizing $4.3 billion of legacy Tier 2 securities as both Tier 2 and MREL. In addition, for consistency, we've also chosen to stop recognizing a $750 million senior holdco notice MREL. Both of these actions are effective immediately and will reduce our MREL ratio by 54 basis points.

今天上午，除了發布業績之外，我們還發布了另一份公告，影響了我們的部分遺留二級債務以及較舊的高級控股公司票據。為了確保我們不會在今年 6 月 CRR 祖父條款結束時影響到我們剩餘的二級證券，我們主動選擇停止將 43 億美元的遺留二級證券同時確認為二級證券和 MREL。此外，為了保持一致性，我們也選擇停止承認價值 7.5 億美元的高級控股公司通知 MREL。這兩項措施均立即生效，並將使我們的 MREL 比率降低 54 個基點。

Moving on to liquidity. The group retains a large and well-diversified deposit base with strong levels of liquidity. We have a total deposit base of $1.7 trillion and our loan-to-deposit ratio is 56%. Across our two home markets, our deposit base continues to skew significantly more towards current and savings accounts than we see across the broader market.

繼續討論流動性。該集團擁有龐大且多元化的存款基礎，流動性強勁。我們的總存款基礎為 1.7 兆美元，貸存比率為 56%。在我們的兩個本土市場中，我們的存款基礎仍然明顯偏向活期帳戶和儲蓄帳戶，而這種傾向並不像我們在更廣泛的市場中看到的那麼明顯。

We hold $0.8 trillion in high-quality liquid assets and the group LCR was 138%. As you will have heard me say before, the group consolidated LCR is calculated using conservative assumptions. We primarily manage liquidity at the subsidiary level and our major subsidiaries all operate with LCRs that are significantly higher than the group ratio.

我們持有 0.8 兆美元的優質流動資產，集團流動性覆蓋率為 138%。正如您之前所聽我說過的那樣，集團合併 LCR 是使用保守的假設來計算的。我們主要在子公司層級管理流動性，我們主要子公司的流動性覆蓋率均明顯高於集團比率。

Finally, on to issuance. Last year, we continued to focus on diversifying our currency mix and proactively managing our maturity profile via liability management. Two-thirds of our holdco senior issuance was in US dollars and we are particularly pleased with the reception we received in Singapore dollar and Australian dollar. We expect our issuance plan in '25 will be similar to last year and net issuance needs will be modest. We will continue to look for opportunities to diversify our issuance, utilizing our broad name recognition, particularly across Asia.

最後，談到發行。去年，我們繼續致力於貨幣組合多元化，並透過負債管理積極管理我們的到期狀況。我們控股公司優先債券發行的三分之二是以美元發行的，而我們對新加坡元和澳元所受到的歡迎尤其感到高興。我們預計 25 年的發行計畫將與去年相似，淨發行需求也將適中。我們將繼續尋找機會實現發行多元化，利用我們廣泛的知名度，特別是在亞洲地區。

Starting with holdco senior, we expect to issue around $16 billion to $18 billion against maturities of calls of around $14 billion. In Tier 2, we expect $2 billion to $3 billion against just under $3 billion of maturities. And in AT1, we're planning for around $3 billion to $4 billion. We've recently announced the call of our only AT1 due this year, which will remove $2.5 billion in March.

從優先控股公司債券開始，我們預計將發行約 160 億至 180 億美元的債券，到期贖回債券金額約為 140 億美元。在第 2 級債券中，我們預計債券金額為 20 億至 30 億美元，而到期債券金額略低於 30 億美元。在 AT1 方面，我們計劃投入約 30 億至 40 億美元。我們最近宣布了今年唯一到期的 AT1 的贖回，將於 3 月贖回 25 億美元。

So wrapping up before handing off to Q&A, another strong year, which, combined with our increased focus on simplification and efficiency, sets us up to continue to deliver strong returns as we look out. We maintain prudent capital, liquidity, and funding positions and we have modest net issuance needs in '25.

因此，在進行問答環節之前，我們可以總結一下，這是另一個強勁的一年，再加上我們更加重視簡化和效率，我們將在未來繼續提供強勁的回報。我們保持審慎的資本、流動性和融資狀況，並且在25年我們有適度的淨發行需求。

On that note, let's open the call up for Q&A. Greg?

就此而言，讓我們開始問答環節。格雷格？

(Event Instructions)

(活動須知)

We do have one first pre-submitted question that I'll read out while people are getting a chance to put their hand up. So just on the de-recognition that you announced today, Fais, how will that affect your issuance plans for Tier 2 and MREL if at all?

我們確實有一個預先提交的問題，當人們有機會舉手時，我會讀出來。那麼，Fais，就您今天宣布的取消承認而言，這會對您的 Tier 2 和 MREL 發行計劃產生什麼影響？

Okay. Thank you, Greg. Well, perhaps, in answering that, perhaps I'll take a step back and just explain why we made the decision today and a little bit about the background. So as you know, Greg, and as I think many people on the call will know, we undertook a liability management exercise on the securities in '22, which allowed us to reduce the overall stack from around $6.7 billion to the current level, which is $4.3 billion.

好的。謝謝你，格雷格。好吧，也許，在回答這個問題時，也許我會退一步並解釋我們為什麼今天做出這個決定以及一些背景。因此，格雷格，您知道，而且我認為電話會議上的許多人都知道，我們在 22 年對證券進行了負債管理，這使我們能夠將總債務從約 67 億美元減少到目前的 43 億美元。

So we took out about a third and a number of that was through participation from our core investors. We would have ideally liked to have that number be higher. But in looking at it after the event, we realized that a good chunk of the issuance sits with investors who are either unable to sell or unwilling to sell.

因此，我們取出了約三分之一，其中一部分是透過我們的核心投資者的參與。我們原本希望這個數字更高。但事後回顧，我們意識到很大一部分發行債券都落入了無法出售或不願出售的投資者手中。

We were at the point where we've continued to evaluate it since '22. And we -- these securities will, at the end of the grandfathering period, the CRR grandfathering period, as I said in the prepared remarks, in June '25, would have posed an infection risk. So we took the opportunity now to take the action and de-recognize them. That was in liaison with the regulator, getting formal permissions and was an internal call.

自 22 年以來，我們就一直在對其進行評估。而且我們 — — 這些證券將在祖父條款 (CRR 祖父條款) 結束時，正如我在 25 年 6 月的準備好的發言中所說的那樣，帶來感染風險。因此我們現在抓住機會採取行動，不再承認他們。這是與監管機構聯絡、獲得正式許可，並且是內部電話。

In doing that, we had actually prepared for a long while. We do these things over a number of quarters in terms of our over Tier 2 stack. So to the question that's been asked, it won't affect our future issuance plan. We'd already prepared for the actions that we've taken today. And indeed, we wanted to take these actions today to provide clarity as quickly as possible to our investor base and to remove any questions about the infection risk that would have arisen had we not derecognized the securities. So no changes to the -- funding plan. Overall, very comfortable with where we are in Tier 2.

為了做到這一點，我們實際上已經準備了很長時間。就我們的 Tier 2 堆疊而言，我們在多個季度內完成了這些工作。所以對於已經提出的問題，它不會影響我們未來的發行計畫。我們已經為今天採取的行動做好了準備。事實上，我們希望今天採取這些行動，以便盡快為我們的投資者群體提供澄清，並消除任何有關如果我們不取消確認這些證券可能會出現的感染風險的疑問。因此，融資計劃沒有變動。總體而言，我們對於目前處於第 2 層的位置感到非常滿意。

Dan David, Autonomous.

丹‧戴維 (Dan David)，Autonomous。

Great. Congratulations on the results. I have three. The first one is just on legacy and just kind of touching on some of the points you just made. Interested, noting the de-recognition, how should we think about these bonds now in resolution? Kind of what are they treated as? And I guess why I'm asking is, is the Bank of England happy with you including these bond as nonregulatory capital and MREL, i.e., are they pushing for you to reduce further rather than just to put them in a bucket which gets rid of infection risk?

偉大的。恭喜你所取得的成果。我有三個。第一個問題只是關於遺產，只是涉及您剛才提出的一些觀點。有興趣，注意到取消承認，我們現在應該如何看待這些債券的解決方案？他們被當作什麼對待？我之所以問這個問題，是因為英格蘭銀行是否樂意將這些債券作為非監管資本和 MREL，也就是說，他們是否敦促你進一步降低資本，而不是僅僅把它們放在一個可以消除感染風險的桶裡？

And then maybe adding to legacy, in the past, you've mentioned your priorities here. I think the Sterling may call the 5.844% is the most focused and most talked about bond. Is there any update with this given you made hold the dollar last year?

然後也許會增加遺產，在過去，您在這裡提到了您的優先事項。我認為英鎊可能稱 5.844% 為最受關注和最受談論的債券。鑑於去年你持有美元，這方面有什麼更新嗎？

The second one, on a slightly deferent topic, which you might be pleased to hear. One of your large Swiss peers brought up the subject of double leverage again. And I know we've talked about this in the past with HSBC. Looking at your accounts, I know the double leverage looks to be above 110%, just at a high level. Is this still being managed to that sort of level? Is this a priority for the PRA? And what are the limits here?

第二個話題稍微有些不同，您可能會很高興聽到。你們的一位瑞士大同行再次提起了雙重槓桿的話題。我知道我們過去已經與匯豐銀行討論過這個問題。查看你的帳戶，我知道雙重槓桿看起來超過 110%，處於較高水平。這還能被管理到那種水準嗎？這對於 PRA 來說是一個優先事項嗎？這裡的極限是什麼？

And then finally, more broadly on kind of one of the popular topics. I'm looking at slide 39 and the CRE exposure in Hong Kong. I know the comments on the call earlier. I'm just interested if you could give any guidance on where you think that Stage 3 ratio could go and also the balance in Hong Kong ex-China, is there going to be a further push to reduce that balance? Any information would be interesting.

最後，更廣泛地討論熱門話題之一。我正在看第 39 張投影片和香港的 CRE 曝光。我之前就知道通話中的評論了。我只是想知道，您能否就第三階段的比例可能走向何方提供一些指導，以及香港（中國除外）的平衡問題，是否會進一步推動減少這種平衡？任何資訊都會很有趣。

Okay. Thank you, Dan. There's quite a lot there, but let me try and unpack it and give you answers to all three of your questions. So starting with legacy. So I'll take it in the order that you've given the questions, starting with legacy and the de-recognition. The way we look at these securities is we still believe these securities will be able to absorb losses in resolution, that's always been the case and nothing has changed from our perspective. We have to take the actions that we've taken today to avoid the infection risk that would have been automatic in June '25 but it's still our belief that they're there to absorb losses.

好的。謝謝你，丹。這裡面有很多問題，但讓我嘗試一一解答，並為你解答所有三個問題。因此從遺產開始。因此，我將按照你提出問題的順序進行回答，從遺產問題和取消承認問題開始。我們看待這些證券的方式是，我們仍然相信這些證券將能夠吸收解決中的損失，情況一直如此，從我們的角度來看沒有任何改變。我們必須採取今天採取的行動來避免 25 年 6 月自動出現的感染風險，但我們仍然相信，這些行動是為了吸收損失。

In terms of the other parts of that question, which is interactions with the Bank of England, yes, we have been interacting with the Bank of England. We've done this. We've sought the necessary approvals to do what we do, and we continue to liaise with the regulator on all such matters. The Bank of England though are keen as we are for us to reduce our legacy stack. And perhaps I'll use this to jump on to kind of your next part of the question, which is that we've taken a number of actions over the past three years, really since the beginning of '22, to reduce our stack. It's gone from in excess of $14 billion to just over $7 billion now, and we're committed over time to continue that reduction.

至於這個問題的其他部分，即與英格蘭銀行的互動，是的，我們一直在與英格蘭銀行互動。我們已經做到了。我們已經尋求開展工作所需的批准，並將繼續就所有此類事宜與監管機構保持聯繫。然而，英格蘭銀行與我們一樣熱衷於減少我們的遺留債務。也許我會用這個來回答你問題的下一部分，那就是我們在過去三年裡，實際上從 22 年初開始，就採取了一系列行動來減少我們的堆疊。這一數字已從超過 140 億美元降至現在的略高於 70 億美元，我們致力於隨著時間的推移繼續削減這一數字。

But we've always said that whatever we do needs to be appropriate and proportionate. And that's the same language or form of language that the Bank of England uses on such matters. So when we look at the securities in our legacy stack, we'll evaluate them as time goes and we've taken actions. You talked a little bit about the security that we called in September of last year. So that was a make-whole security with a coupon of in excess of 10%.

但我們一直說，無論做什麼都要適當、適中。這與英格蘭銀行在這些問題上所使用的語言或語言形式相同。因此，當我們查看遺留堆疊中的證券時，我們會隨著時間的推移對其進行評估並採取行動。您談到了我們去年 9 月打來的保全電話。因此，這是一張票面利率超過 10% 的補償性證券。

And in evaluating that, we looked at a number of factors. We looked at the coupon, the economics around it. We were also very conscious about our investor base and the sentiment coming from our investor base. The economics are very important, and we need to balance the investor sentiment with those of shareholders.

在評估這一點時，我們考慮了許多因素。我們研究了優惠券及其相關的經濟因素。我們也非常清楚我們的投資者基礎以及來自投資者基礎的情緒。經濟非常重要，我們需要平衡投資人和股東的情緒。

In that case, for the holding issuance, dollar issuance, we were able to justify making the decision and calling the security. At the same time, as you might imagine, we looked at the other one, the 5.844% that you've talked about, and the situation there was a little bit different. And I think it's probably safe for you to assume, without security, the economics just weren't conducive at that time.

在這種情況下，對於持有的發行、美元的發行，我們能夠證明做出決定和調用證券的合理性。同時，正如您可能想像的那樣，我們研究了另一個數據，即您談到的 5.844%，那裡的情況略有不同。我想您可以放心地認為，如果沒有安全保障，那麼當時的經濟狀況就不會有利。

Now we'll continue to keep this under evaluation. We're quite aware of that we've got a number of our core investor base in those securities. So we'll keep on evaluating it. That's a long-winded answer, but hopefully, it's fair enough for your first question.

現在我們將繼續對此進行評估。我們非常清楚，我們在這些證券中擁有大量核心投資者。因此我們會繼續評估它。這是一個冗長的答案，但希望它足以回答你的第一個問題。

I believe your second question was on double leverage. And my comment on that is we do use double leverage to reflect the fact that our subsidiaries often have higher capital requirements than they do when consolidated in the group. Our double leverage position really is not a concern for us. It's within our risk appetite, and we expect it to remain there. We have had conversations over time with regulators, rating agencies, all of whom are comfortable with the level that we run and indeed, our risk appetites. And we aligned to PRA policy on the matter.

我認為您的第二個問題是關於雙重槓桿的。我對此的評論是，我們確實使用雙重槓桿來反映這樣一個事實，即我們的子公司的資本要求通常比集團合併時更高。我們的雙重槓桿地位其實並不令我們擔心。這符合我們的風險承受能力，我們預計它將保持在這一水平。我們一直與監管機構、評級機構進行對話，他們都對我們的運作水準以及我們的風險偏好感到滿意。我們在此事上與 PRA 政策保持一致。

The final thing I'd say is in respect to double leverage, we do hold a significant amount of liquidity at the holding company. So that's in excess of $20 billion, and that's to manage any cash flow risk. So overall, on double leverage, nothing of concern from our perspective.

我最後要說的是，關於雙重槓桿，我們確實在控股公司持有大量流動資金。所以這個金額超過 200 億美元，這是為了管理任何現金流風險。因此總體而言，從我們的角度來看，雙槓桿沒有什麼好擔心的。

And finally, going on to your third question, so CRE in Hong Kong and the overall Stage 3 balances. As I think your question alluded to, the Stage 3 balances have picked up in 2024. We reported 2.4% of gross loans as Stage 3. But that did not impact our overall ECLs materially. And that's largely because the books that we have in Hong Kong CRE have a low LTV. And therefore, although they go into nonperforming, they don't lead to or haven't led to credit losses. And overall, the book, we're very comfortable with the nature of the book in our Hong Kong business.

最後，繼續回答您的第三個問題，香港的商業房地產和第三階段的整體平衡。我認為您的問題已經提到，第三階段的餘額將在 2024 年回升。我們將總貸款的 2.4% 報告為第三階段。但這並未對我們的整體預期信用損失產生重大影響。這主要是因為我們在香港CRE的帳簿的LTV較低。因此，儘管它們陷入不良貸款狀態，但不會導致或尚未導致信貸損失。整體而言，我們對香港業務的圖書性質非常滿意。

I think that's probably answered your question, but I'll just open it up to Greg to see whether he wanted to add anything to any of that, in particular, CRE piece.

我想這可能已經回答了你的問題，但我還是想讓格雷格看看他是否想對此進行任何補充，特別是 CRE 部分。

No. Just, I guess, one note on kind of the path of the NPL ratio. I mean it is -- it will always be relatively hard to predict because obviously, it's inflows and outflows. You'll see in the fourth quarter, for example, there was a small inflow in Hong Kong commercial real estate into Stage 3. It was lower than we had seen in Q2 and Q3. But we did have some write-offs in the Mainland China commercial real estate book. So it really will be kind of a game of in and out, but we do have our eye very clearly on it.

不。我想，這只是關於不良貸款率走勢的一個說明。我的意思是——它總是相對難以預測，因為顯然它是流入和流出。例如，你會看到在第四季度，香港商業房地產有少量資金流入第三階段。它低於我們在第二季和第三季看到的水平。但我們在中國大陸的商業房地產帳簿上確實有一些減記。因此這確實將是一場進出遊戲，但我們對此非常關注。

So we don't have any raised hands at the moment, so please do raise your hand if you do have a question. But in the interim, we do have a written submitted question from Lee Street at Citi. Sorry, we can't hear your voice, Lee.

因此，目前我們還沒有人舉手，因此，如果您有任何問題，請舉手。但在此期間，我們確實收到了花旗銀行 Lee Street 提交的書面問題。抱歉，李，我們聽不到你的聲音。

So two questions for you, Fais. So firstly, from a business model perspective, can we presume that the current group is close to an end state, i.e., we should not be expecting any more significant disposals and any acquisitions? Would small bolt-on acquisitions, i.e., less than 5% of group assets is something you'd look at?

所以我有兩個問題想問你，Fais。那麼首先，從商業模式的角度來看，我們是否可以假設目前的集團已接近最終狀態，即我們不應該期待任何更重大的處置和收購？您會考慮小規模的附加收購，即佔集團資產不到 5％ 的收購嗎？

Okay. So thank you, Lee. The way we think about acquisitions or actually surplus capital was laid out by George in the meeting earlier today, so the investment presentation to analysts first thing this morning. We talked about using that capital in three real ways. First of all, to pay our dividends. Second, in terms of growth of balance sheet. And thirdly, in terms of buyback or acquisitions. And really, that was the order of prioritization.

好的。所以謝謝你，李。我們對收購或實際剩餘資本的看法已經在喬治今天早些時候的會議上闡述過了，因此今天早上第一件事就是向分析師進行投資報告。我們討論瞭如何使用這些資本的三種實際方法。首先，支付股利。第二，從資產負債表的成長來看。第三，關於回購或收購。事實上，這就是優先順序。

The way we think about acquisitions in general is that any acquisitions we make need to meet the return hurdles of the group. We'll need to consider the impact in terms of management overhead of any acquisitions and the ease or otherwise of integrating anything within HSBC. We've always said we're open to consider bolt-on acquisitions but not -- but only if they make sense for HSBC. So nothing's really changed there.

我們對收購的一般看法是，任何收購都需要滿足集團的回報門檻。我們需要考慮任何收購對管理開銷的影響，以及在匯豐銀行內部整合任何業務的難易程度。我們一直表示，我們願意考慮附加收購，但前提是這些收購對匯豐銀行有意義。所以那裡實際上什麼都沒有改變。

In terms of the other part to your question, if I caught it correctly, the cost piece. Well, what we've announced today is two parts to our cost plan. So we intend to take $1.5 billion out in terms of cost efficiencies within the group. And that will go straight to the bottom line in terms of saves for the group as a whole. But we also announced a further $1.5 billion which is around streamlining some of the activity that we do within the group, repositioning our businesses.

關於你問題的另一部分，如果我理解正確的話，就是成本部分。嗯，我們今天宣布的是成本計劃的兩個部分。因此，我們打算從集團內部的成本效率投入 15 億美元。而這將直接影響整個團隊的儲蓄底線。但我們也宣布再投入 15 億美元，用於精簡集團內部的一些活動，重新定位我們的業務。

And that is work that is ongoing. Pam listed in her piece presentation this morning, two or three examples. We announced, for example, that we were disposing of our retail banking operations in Bahrain. And we are also -- we announced earlier this year that the French insurance business will be an area that we look to dispose of. That's in addition to prior disposals in '24. So there are -- there continues to be a focus on things that will be -- that will benefit the group strategy in terms of acquisitions or disposals. And really, we'll announce them when they come.

這項工作目前正在進行中。帕姆在今天早上的文章演講中列舉了兩三個例子。例如，我們宣布將出售我們在巴林的零售銀行業務。我們今年稍早也宣布，法國保險業務將成為我們考慮出售的領域之一。這是對 24 年先前處置的補充。因此，我們將繼續關注那些在收購或處置方面有利於集團策略的事情。事實上，當他們到來時我們就會宣布。

Thanks, Fais. And Lee's second question is, can you share your thoughts on potential inclusion in EM indices given that based on the split of your total assets, do you see this as likely?

謝謝，Fais。李的第二個問題是，您能否分享一下對於納入新興市場指數的可能性的看法，考慮到您的總資產分佈情況，您認為這種可能性大嗎？

Okay. I might ask you to answer that question, Greg, because I know you've been looking at it for us. So do you want to take that one?

好的。格雷格，我可能會請你回答這個問題，因為我知道你一直在為我們研究這個問題。那你想選擇那個嗎？

Yes, sure. Thanks, Fais. So on this point, we have had a number of conversations with various index providers, and we are very cognizant that the primary index that's in people's minds is the JPMorgan so-called JACI Index, that one of our notable peers entered a couple of years ago. From our standpoint, as we understand it, the main yard stick they are looking at is the proportion of our total balance sheet that sits in EM countries. Now you can look at that in a number of different ways. And of course, JPMorgan will do that in their way.

是的，當然。謝謝，Fais。因此，在這一點上，我們已經與多家指數提供者進行了多次對話，我們非常清楚，人們心目中的首要指數是摩根大通所謂的 JACI 指數，我們的一位著名同行幾年前就加入了該指數。從我們的角度來看，據我們了解，他們關注的主要標準是我們整個資產負債表中位於新興市場國家的比例。現在您可以從多種不同角度來看待這個問題。當然，摩根大通會以自己的方式做到這一點。

As we understand it at this stage, we are not at the level at which we would be eligible for inclusion. But of course, that decision will always be down to JPMorgan as they consider the balancing and the weights. So yes, we'll wait and see on that and nothing new to give you there. And of course, I'm sure JPMorgan would be happy to have that conversation with you if you need to.

據我們現階段了解，我們尚未達到符合納入資格的程度。但當然，這個決定始終取決於摩根大通，因為他們會考慮平衡和權重。所以是的，我們會拭目以待，沒有什麼新消息可以提供給您。當然，我相信如果您需要的話，摩根大通會很樂意與您進行這樣的對話。

Just polling again, if there are anyone who wants to raise their hand to ask a question, I do have a couple of pre-submitted questions to get through, but I can see that Rob Smalley at Verition has just stuck his hand up. So Rob, you can unmute your line and you should be able to speak.

再次進行民意調查，如果有人想舉手提問，我確實有幾個預先提交的問題需要處理，但我看到 Verition 的 Rob Smalley 剛剛舉手了。所以 Rob，你可以取消靜音，然後你就可以說話了。

Just to really on the real estate. First, on Hong Kong, you talked about the unsecured portion, which appears to be long-held properties, probably generational. Are -- despite the fact that interest rates have gone up and there are some questions about some of these buildings have those entities, families, et cetera, who have owned these properties for quite some time, made a commitment or at least indicated that they're willing to support these properties through a higher interest rate environment.

只是真正地談論房地產。首先，關於香港，您談到了無擔保部分，這些部分似乎是長期持有的財產，可能是世代相傳的。儘管利率已經上升，而且對於其中一些建築物存在一些疑問，但那些擁有這些房產很長一段時間的實體、家庭等是否已經做出承諾，或者至少表示願意在更高的利率環境下支持這些房產。

If not, you talk about low LTV and that these are secured. If they do, in fact, want to negotiate handing over the keys or some other kind of arrangement, are there other buyers for these kind of properties in Hong Kong today? I could use a little education on that.

如果不是，您談論的是低 LTV，而且這些都是有保障的。如果他們確實想透過談判交出鑰匙或達成其他某種安排，那麼目前香港還有其他買家購買此類房產嗎？我可以就此接受一些教育。

And then second question is on the UK opportunity. Ring-fenced margin is pretty wide. What do you see the opportunity there in terms of the go forward? Is it margin expansion? Is it product expansion? Are there some geographies or segments that you don't feel like you have enough market share? If you could outline that, I'd greatly appreciate it.

第二個問題是關於英國的機會。圍欄邊緣相當寬。就未來的發展而言，您認為那裡有哪些機會？這是擴大利潤率嗎？是產品擴充嗎？您是否覺得在某些地區或領域中您的市佔率還不夠？如果您能概述這一點，我將非常感激。

Okay. Thank you, Bob. That's very clear. I'm going to ask Greg to take both questions.

好的。謝謝你，鮑伯。這非常清楚。我將請格雷格回答這兩個問題。

Yes, sure. Of course. Thanks, Fais. So just on the Hong Kong piece, this is a wide and varied book. Pam went through some of the details of it, Pam, our new CFO on the call this morning. But just for background, so I think a few points that you noted, 54% of the Hong Kong domestic book is secured. And the remainder is unsecured. The unsecured -- the secured piece is where we've typically seen the flow into Stage 3 so far, and the LTVs there remain strong. So on the impaired book, which was around $4.6 billion at the year end, 58% LTV on that component, and that's clearly why you've seen very, very minimal levels of ECL coming off those flows into Stage 3 so far.

是的，當然。當然。謝謝，Fais。僅就香港部分而言，這是一本內容廣泛、風格各異的書。帕姆 (Pam) 是我們新任首席財務官，她在今早的電話會議上詳細介紹了其中的一些細節。但僅作為背景介紹，我認為您指出的幾點是，54％的香港國內書籍是有擔保的。其餘則無擔保。到目前為止，我們通常看到無擔保——有擔保部分流入第三階段，該部分的 LTV 仍然強勁。因此，就受損帳面而言，截至年底約為 46 億美元，該部分的 LTV 為 58%，這顯然就是為什麼到目前為止，您會看到進入第 3 階段的這些資金中 ECL 水平非常非常低。

To give you some context in terms of kind of the next stage up in terms of credit criteria, what we class as substandard, so the credit grading just above impaired, that book right now is about $3.7 billion and has a 46% LTV. So again, to the extent that we have -- we see further deterioration in ratings and potential moving to Stage 3, we do continue to have pretty strong LTV protection.

為了給您一些關於信用標準下一階段的背景信息，我們將其歸類為不合格，即信用評級略高於受損，目前該賬面價值約為 37 億美元，LTV 為 46%。因此，就我們所看到的評級進一步惡化以及進入第 3 階段的可能性而言，我們確實繼續擁有相當強大的 LTV 保護。

The unsecured piece, as you know, is more toward the conglomerate type large developers who are often listed and well rated. In fact, 90% of that book as it stands is currently rated equivalent to an investment-grade rating with an external credit rating. So in that book, we -- what we've seen is typically quite competitive market to lend to those types of names. And I think we're more than happy to continue to support that sector. So I'm going to leave it at that -- at this stage.

如您所知，無擔保部分更針對通常已上市且評級較高的企業集團型大型開發商。事實上，目前該帳簿的 90% 被評為具有外部信用評級的投資等級。所以在那本書中，我們看到借出這些類型債券的市場競爭通常相當激烈。我認為我們非常樂意繼續支持該領域。因此，我將就此止步 — — 就目前階段而言。

That's very helpful. Thanks on those.

這非常有幫助。謝謝這些。

On the UK opportunity, yes, look, I think we feel well positioned. We've got a great business in the UK. It's efficient. It's been taking market share. And I think it feels pretty well placed to compete, particularly for internationally orientated corporates who have that tilt towards Asia, in particular, but any form of global exposure.

關於英國的機會，是的，看，我認為我們處於有利地位。我們在英國的生意很好。它很高效。它已經佔領了市場份額。我認為它處於相當好的競爭地位，特別是對於那些傾向於亞洲的國際化企業，但也具有任何形式的全球影響力。

I think where do we see opportunities? Well, I guess some areas where we are underweight right now. So SMEs is somewhere where we are -- we're looking at for opportunities. But I think we want to continue to generally play to our strengths. And in that, that is writing high-quality mortgages on a good risk-adjusted basis and continuing to service those corporates who value what we can offer in the international space.

我認為我們在哪裡看到機會？嗯，我想，目前我們在某些​​領域還處於弱勢。因此，中小企業是我們正在尋找機會的地方。但我認為我們希望繼續發揮我們的優勢。其中，我們在良好的風險調整基礎上提供高品質的抵押貸款，並繼續為那些重視我們在國際領域所提供的服務的企業提供服務。

Makes sense. Thank you.

有道理。謝謝。

Thank you, Greg. And actually, I might just add a few comments on Hong Kong more broadly. I mean we -- we have, as you know, Rob seen the headwinds in the Hong Kong commercial real estate market, where some of our clients have faced some debt servicing challenges. But there's a number of things that provide reasons for optimism. Hong Kong has proven over some time how highly resilient it is. And there are a number of new growth areas that are emerging. It continues to offer a bridge, for example, for outbound revenue from China to the rest of the world. Hong Kong is building stronger links across ASEAN and also the Middle East.

謝謝你，格雷格。實際上，我可能只想就香港問題更廣泛地發表一些評論。我的意思是，如你所知，羅布看到了香港商業房地產市場的阻力，我們的一些客戶面臨一些債務償還挑戰。但有許多事情讓我們有理由感到樂觀。香港已在一段時間內證明了其極強的韌性。許多新的成長領域正在湧現。例如，它繼續為中國向世界其他地區提供對外收入的橋樑。香港正在與東協和中東建立更緊密的聯繫。

We know about its status as a financial hub and the regulatory foundations. But also, as was called out in the call this morning, we see a number of structural opportunities in wealth management. And we believe Hong Kong is really well positioned actually to become the world's leading cross-border wealth hub over the next decade or so. So HSBC is well positioned to capture those opportunities as they arise.

我們了解它作為金融中心的地位和監管基礎。但正如今天早上電話會議中所提到的，我們在財富管理領域看到了許多結構性機會。我們相信，未來十年左右，香港確實有條件成為世界領先的跨境財富中心。因此，匯豐銀行處於有利地位，可以抓住這些出現的機會。

As rates start to go down, it's my expectation that that pressure on clients that are facing debt service challenges will relax somewhat. So we'll keep an eye on that, and we're here to support our customers through that journey. So I just wanted to add that in terms of Hong Kong.

隨著利率開始下降，我預計面臨債務償還挑戰的客戶壓力將減輕。因此，我們會密切注意這一點，並在此為客戶提供支援。所以我只想補充一下有關香港的問題。

Thanks for your questions, Rob. So we do have another pre-submitted question from Paul Fenner at SocGen. So a few here. I think we've answered a few of your questions already, Paul, but there's a couple to pick out. So firstly, what currencies are most attractive to you for funding at the moment?

謝謝你的提問，羅布。我們還有來自法國興業銀行的保羅芬納 (Paul Fenner) 的另一個預先提交的問題。這裡就有幾個。保羅，我想我們已經回答了你的一些問題，但還有幾個問題需要挑選。那麼首先，目前哪些貨幣對您來說最有吸引力？

Okay. So as I said in my prepared remarks, last year, we -- in senior holdco and MREL, we issued about two-thirds in US dollar, and US dollar is still the largest currency by far, and we'll be -- we'll continue to be given the liquidity in that market.

好的。正如我在準備好的演講中所說的那樣，去年，我們在高級控股公司和 MREL 中發行了約三分之二的美元債券，美元仍然是迄今為止最大的貨幣，我們將繼續在該市場獲得流動性。

However, we are always looking to see opportunities to diversify, especially when the funding spreads are good. We -- I think this year, we'll be looking at the usual market. So sterling, euro, potentially Swiss (inaudible) Aussie as areas that diversification could occur.

然而，我們始終在尋找多樣化的機會，尤其是在融資利差良好的情況下。我認為今年我們將關注正常的市場。因此，英鎊、歐元、潛在的瑞士法郎（聽不清楚）澳元是可能多樣化的領域。

On AT1, I would say we've probably got a strong preference for US dollars, largely because of the FX exposure that it generates. And where we don't use FX, so we don't go for US dollar, and we have some cost currency risk. It will be where we have the opportunity to downstream into an entity that has a function of currency that matches the AT1 that we issued.

關於 AT1，我想說我們可能強烈偏好美元，主要是因為它產生的外匯風險。而且我們不使用外匯，所以我們不選擇美元，而且我們有一定的貨幣風險。在這裡我們將有機會將其下游發展為一個具有與我們發行的 AT1 相符的貨幣功能的實體。

Thanks, Fais. And Paul's second question is non-NII makes up the lion's share of revenue still. Non-NII clearly is the growth area. What's the right percentage of non-NII versus NII in the medium term? And what does any shift mean for RWA and capital needs?

謝謝，Fais。保羅的第二個問題是，非國家資訊基礎設施仍然佔收入的最大份額。非國家資訊基礎設施顯然是成長領域。從中期來看，非國家資訊基礎設施 (NII) 與國家資訊基礎設施 (NII) 的適當比例是多少？那麼任何轉變對於 RWA 和資本需求意味著什麼？

Okay. Great question. So at the moment, we are about two-thirds NII, one-third non-net interest income. We do see opportunities for growth in non-NII. We've guided, for example, to double-digit wealth growth. The RWA and capital needs will be dependent on factors such as balance sheet growth, more generally. So look, I think we're not putting a specific target on the split between the two. But certainly, we see opportunities to grow our non-net interest income in the future.

好的。好問題。因此，目前，我們的 NII 收入約佔三分之二，非淨利息收入約佔三分之一。我們確實看到了非國家資訊基礎設施的成長機會。例如，我們預期財富將達到兩位數成長。更普遍而言，風險加權資產和資本需求將取決於資產負債表成長等因素。所以，我認為我們並沒有對兩者之間的分歧設定具體的目標。但可以肯定的是，我們看到了未來增加非淨利息收入的機會。

Thanks, Fais. And we do have another question from the line of Dan David. Dan, you should be able to unmute your line.

謝謝，Fais。我們還有另一個來自 Dan David 的問題。丹，你應該可以取消靜音。

Just your comments on the issuance plan. I just wanted to touch upon one thing on the holdco senior. So in the prior years, we've noted that you've been a net negative issuer, i.e., issuing less than calls and maturities, but this seems to have flipped this year. So I'm just wondering and noting that the big cash balance you have at the holdco, just is there anything driving this.

只是您對發行計劃的評論。我只是想談一談有關 holdco 高層的一件事。因此，在前幾年，我們注意到您一直是淨負發行人，即發行量少於看漲期權和到期債券，但今年這種情況似乎發生了逆轉。所以我只是好奇並注意到，你在控股公司擁有的巨額現金餘額，是否有任何因素推動了這種情況。

Are you expecting MREL requirements to go up, for instance? Or -- and I look at calls and maturities and I kind of see the '26 is down. So just trying to understand why you're increasing issuance versus calls and maturities in 2025.

例如，您是否預期 MREL 要求將會上調？或 — — 我查看了看漲期權和到期期權，發現 26 比率下降了。所以只是想了解為什麼你們要在 2025 年增加發行量而不是贖回量和到期量。

Thank you, Dan. So yes, look, we're marginally net positive issuance this year. So we're guiding to issuing about between $16 billion and $18 billion in senior holdco against calls of $14 billion. And on the AT1, it's around $3 billion to $4 billion against calls of $2.5 billion.

謝謝你，丹。所以是的，你看，今年我們的淨發行量略有正成長。因此，我們預計高級控股公司將發行約 160 億美元至 180 億美元的債券，而贖回債券金額為 140 億美元。而在 AT1 方面，其需求約為 30 億至 40 億美元，而需求量為 25 億美元。

So yes, look, net positive, that's really generated through nothing else than expected balance sheet growth. And really, when we look at AT1 as well, I would say that it's not always the regulatory buffers that we're looking at there. We also look at where there might be opportunities to downstream some of the AT1 into entities that might have leverage ratio constraints. So those are the kind of reasons behind it, nothing more than that, really.

所以是的，你看，淨正值，這實際上是透過預期的資產負債表成長產生的。實際上，當我們研究 AT1 時，我想說，我們關注的並不總是監管緩衝區。我們也研究了將部分 AT1 下游到可能存在槓桿率限制的實體的機會。背後的原因就是這些，實際上僅止於此。

Great. Thanks, Dan.

偉大的。謝謝，丹。

So I think we've got no further questions at this stage. So I guess I'll just hand it back to you, Fais, to wrap up.

所以我認為我們現階段沒有其他問題了。所以我想我只能把它交還給你，Fais，來結束這個話題。

Okay. Thank you. Well, thanks, everyone, for joining the call. I hope it was one you found useful. If you do have any further questions, then please don't -- obviously, don't hesitate to pick up with Greg and the IR team. And hopefully, we'll see many of you on the road and through bilateral conversations over the next few months. Thank you.

好的。謝謝。好吧，感謝大家參加電話會議。我希望你覺得它有用。如果您還有其他問題，請不要猶豫，立即與 Greg 和 IR 團隊聯繫。希望在接下來的幾個月裡，我們能夠在旅途中和雙邊對話中見到你們。謝謝。