滙豐控股 (HSBC) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome, ladies and gentlemen, to the analyst and investor webinar on the 2024 first quarter results for HSBC Holdings plc. For your information, this webinar is being recorded. We are now ready to start the webinar, so I will hand over to Mark Tucker, Group Chairman.

女士們、先生們，歡迎參加匯豐控股有限公司 2024 年第一季業績分析師和投資者網路研討會。供您參考，本次網路研討會正在錄製中。我們現在準備開始網路研討會，因此我將把發言權交給集團董事長馬克·塔克 (Mark Tucker)。

Good morning to those of you in London, and good afternoon to those of you in Hong Kong. I'm joining you today from London and have alongside me know enjoy. I'll be making some short opening remarks before handing over to Noel.

倫敦的各位朋友早安，香港的朋友下午好。今天我從倫敦來到你們身邊，與你們分享歡樂。在交給諾埃爾之前，我將做一些簡短的開場白。

As you may have already seen, we have announced today that Noel has informed the Board of his intention to retire from the bank after nearly 5 years in the role. The Board and I would like to pay tribute to Noel's exceptional contribution during his time.

您可能已經看到，我們今天宣布，諾埃爾已告知董事會，他打算在該銀行任職近 5 年後退休。董事會和我要對諾埃爾任職期間的傑出貢獻表示敬意。

As Group Chief Executive, he drags both our transformation strategy as well as creating a simpler, more focused business through the disposal of assets in the U.S., France and Canada. This has enabled us to deliver an improved performance, achieving record profits last year and create a platform for future growth and development.

身為集團首席執行官，他既推動了我們的轉型策略，又透過處置美國、法國和加拿大的資產創造了更簡單、更專注的業務。這使我們能夠提高業績，在去年實現創紀錄的利潤，並為未來的成長和發展奠定基礎。

Now, you'll hear from him in a second, has decided it's the right time to step back and find a better balance between his personal and business commitments. As you would expect, the Board keeps succession planning under constant review. We already have started a robust and rigorous process to find our next group Chief Executive.

現在，您馬上就會聽到他的聲音，他決定是時候退後一步並在他的個人和商業承諾之間找到更好的平衡了。正如您所期望的，董事會將不斷審查繼任計畫。我們已經啟動了嚴格而嚴格的程序來尋找下一任集團執行長。

This process will look at both internal and external candidates. I'm very pleased that now has agreed to remain in his role while this process takes place, ensuring a smooth and orderly transition. And on a personal note, I'd like to thank Noel for his unwavering commitment and dedication to HSBC, which he joined 37 years ago.

這個過程將同時考慮內部和外部候選人。我很高興現在他同意在這一進程進行期間繼續擔任他的職務，以確保平穩有序的過渡。就我個人而言，我要感謝諾埃爾貝森37年前加入匯豐銀行以來的堅定承諾和奉獻。

Now, it's been a pleasure and privilege to work with and alongside you.

現在，我很高興和榮幸能夠與您共事。

Thank you, Mark. I'm very grateful for your support, guidance, friendship and partnership. I'm proud of what my HSBC colleagues and I have achieved together over the past 5 years. Over that period, we have hit some significant milestones, record profits last year, the strongest returns in a decade and the highest dividend since 2008.

謝謝你，馬克。我非常感謝您的支持、指導、友誼和合作。我為過去五年來與匯豐同事們共同取得的成就感到自豪。在此期間，我們實現了一些重要的里程碑，包括去年創紀錄的利潤、十年來最強勁的回報以及 2008 年以來最高的股息。

As Mark mentioned, we have created a more focused business, and I believe we have built a strong platform for the bank's next phase of development and growth. That's why I feel this is the right time to step back to find a better balance between my personal and business commitments with the intention going forward after a break of pursuing a portfolio career.

正如馬克所提到的，我們已經創建了更專注的業務，我相信我們為銀行下一階段的發展和成長建立了強大的平台。這就是為什麼我覺得現在是退一步尋找個人和商業承諾之間更好平衡的正確時機，在追求投資組合職業一段時間後，我打算繼續前進。

When I reflect back on the last 37 years, I have held intensive leadership roles, particularly since I took over the U.K. Commercial Bank in October of 2008. After 16 years of intensive leadership, I'm ready for a change. But it's also a natural inflection point for the bank as it comes to the end of the current transformation phase. It's an ideal time to bring in new leadership.

回顧過去 37 年，我擔任過多個領導職務，特別是自 2008 年 10 月接管英國商業銀行以來。但這也是該銀行當前轉型階段即將結束的自然轉折點。這是引入新領導層的理想時機。

The Board has now started a process to find my successor, and I'm very happy to continue in my role as that process takes place. Rest assured, I will be working hard to ensure a smooth and orderly transition for my successor and to keep the momentum going in this business, as you have seen in Q1. Until then, it's business as usual.

董事會目前已開始尋找我的繼任者，我很高興在這過程中繼續擔任我的職位。請放心，我將努力確保我的繼任者平穩有序地過渡，並保持這項業務的發展勢頭，正如您在第一季所看到的那樣。在那之前，一切照常。

So, let's now turn to our Q1 results, which have showed continued progress. We had a good first quarter. Reported profit before tax was $12.7 billion. Excluding notable items, profit before tax was $9 billion. Our return on tangible equity was 16.4%, excluding notable items. I'm also pleased with the further capital distributions of $8.8 billion, which brings the total amount of distributed capital by way of dividends and buybacks over the last 15 months to almost $28 billion.

現在讓我們來看看第一季的業績，業績顯示出我們持續取得進展。我們第一季的表現不錯。報告的稅前利潤為127億美元。除重大項目外，稅前利潤為 90 億美元。不包括重要項目，我們的有形資產報酬率為 16.4%。我也對 88 億美元的進一步資本分配感到高興，這使得過去 15 個月透過股息和回購方式分配的總資本達到近 280 億美元。

And we are on track to meet all of our previously communicated guidance for 2024. I will now hand over to Georges to take you through the numbers.

我們預計將實現之前傳達的 2024 年所有目標。

Thank you, Noel. I'd like to open by paying tribute to the enormous contribution Noel has made to the bank. I've greatly enjoyed working alongside him. And I know everyone at the bank has appreciated this strong and effective leadership. I'm also grateful for the support he has shown me personally since my appointment as CFO, 15 months ago.

謝謝你，諾埃爾。首先，我想對諾埃爾為銀行做出的巨大貢獻表示敬意。我非常享受與他一起工作。我知道銀行裡的每個人都很欣賞這種強大而有效的領導。我也很感激自15個月前我被任命為財務長以來他給予我的個人支持。

The Board has announced the process to find a successor, and I know Non and I will continue to remain very focused on the job at hand until that process has been completed. Turning now to the numbers. Reported profit before tax of $12.7 billion was down $0.3 billion in the first quarter of 2023 on a constant currency basis.

董事會已經宣布了尋找繼任者的程序，我知道 Non 和我將繼續專注於手頭上的工作，直到程序完成。現在來談談數字。 2023 年第一季報告的稅前利潤為 127 億美元，以固定匯率計算下降了 3 億美元。

Excluding notable items, profit before tax was $9 billion, down $0.4 billion on last year's first quarter. On an annualized basis, we delivered a return on tangible equity of 26.1% or 16.4%, excluding notable items. We completed the $2 billion share buyback announced in February in 2 months. This means that since the end of 2022, we have bought back 6% of our outstanding shares. And the trend of strong shareholder distributions continues this quarter.

除重要項目外，稅前利潤為 90 億美元，較去年第一季下降 4 億美元。以年率計算，我們的有形資產回報率為 26.1% 或 16.4%（不包括重要項目）。我們在兩個月內完成了二月宣布的20億美元股票回購。這意味著自2022年底以來，我們已經回購了6%的流通股。本季強勁的股東分配趨勢仍在持續。

We have announced, as Noel said, a further $8.8 billion of distributions consisting of first interim dividend for '24 of $0.10 per share. The special dividend of $0.21 per share from the Canada sale proceeds and a new share buyback of up to $3 billion, which we plan to begin right after the AGM and complete within 3 months.

正如諾埃爾所說，我們宣布進一步分配 88 億美元，包括 2024 年第一期每股 0.10 美元的中期股息。加拿大銷售收益的每股 0.21 美元特別股息和高達 30 億美元的新股回購，我們計劃在年度股東大會後立即開始並在 3 個月內完成。

Finally, we are reconfirming all of our 2024 guidance, including a mid-teens return on tangible equity, excluding notable items and our commitment to limit cost growth to around 5% on a target basis.

最後，我們重新確認了我們 2024 年的所有指導方針，包括中等水平的有形資產回報率（不包括重要項目）以及我們將成本增長限制在 5% 左右的承諾。

So, on the next slide, reported profit before tax of $12.7 billion included $4.8 billion gain on the sale of Canada, partly offset by the $1.1 billion impairment on the classification of Argentina as held for sale. Excluding notable items, profit before tax was $9 billion with revenue growth offset primarily by higher costs and ECLs. Revenue of $20.8 billion was up $0.5 billion on the first quarter of last year.

因此，在下一張幻燈片中，報告的 127 億美元的稅前利潤包括出售加拿大的 48 億美元收益，部分被將阿根廷歸類為持有待售的 11 億美元減損所抵消。除重大項目外，稅前利潤為 90 億美元，收入成長主要被更高的成本和預期信用損失所抵消。營收為 208 億美元，比去年第一季增加了 5 億美元。

Excluding notable items, revenue was $17 billion, which was up $0.5 billion on the first quarter of last year, with growth in banking NII, partly offset by lower fee and other income. Within that, we saw high single-digit growth in multi-jurisdictional revenue in the first quarter, which underlines the value of our global network.

除去值得注意的項目，收入為 170 億美元，比去年第一季增加了 5 億美元，銀行 NII 有所增長，但費用和其他收入的下降部分抵消了這一增長。其中，第一季我們的跨轄區收入實現了高個位數成長，這凸顯了我們全球網路的價值。

Banking NII of $11.3 billion was up $0.6 billion on the fourth quarter on the reported FX basis, mainly driven by Argentina banking NII as well as the nonrecurrence of the cash flow hedge reclassification in the last quarter. Looking ahead to the rest of the year, a few things to keep in mind.

以報告的外匯基礎計算，銀行 NII 為 113 億美元，比第四季度增加了 6 億美元，主要受阿根廷銀行 NII 以及上季未發生現金流避險重新分類的影響。展望今年剩餘的時間，有幾點需要記住。

First, our Q1 banking NII included $0.3 billion from Canada, which will not repeat in future quarters due to the completion of the sale in March this year. Second, first quarter banking NII also included $0.5 billion from Argentina. This contribution will continue to be highly volatile until the sale is completed, which we expect to be within the next 12 months. Please, therefore, do not extrapolate the $0.5 billion run rate for the remainder of the year.

首先，我們第一季的銀行 NII 包括來自加拿大的 3 億美元，由於今年 3 月完成出售，未來幾季不會再發生這種情況。其次，第一季銀行業NII還包括來自阿根廷的5億美元。在出售完成之前，這筆捐款將持續保持高度波動，我們預計出售將在未來 12 個月內完成。因此，請不要推斷今年剩餘時間的 5 億美元運行率。

Our banking NII guidance assumes a contribution of around $1 billion in full year '24 for Argentina, which is in line with full year 2023. Third, the banking NII outlook has improved in several respects since we announced our full year results in February. The Hong Kong time deposit mix remained stable as a percentage of customer deposits in the quarter and markets are now pricing in more modest cuts to interest rates.

我們的銀行 NII 指引假設阿根廷 24 年全年貢獻約為 10 億美元，與 2023 年全年持平。本季度，香港定期存款佔客戶存款的比例保持穩定，市場目前預期利率將進一步溫和下調。

However, it is still early in the year, and these things can change. So, we are maintaining our 2024 banking NII guidance of at least $41 billion. Turning to fee and other income. Wholesale transaction banking was down by 9%, primarily due to the normalization of FX revenues compared to a very strong foreign exchange performance in the first quarter of last year, which benefited from higher market volatility.

然而，現在還處於年初，這些情況可能會改變。因此，我們維持 2024 年銀行 NII 指引水準至少為 410 億美元。轉向費用和其他收入。批發交易銀行業務下降了 9%，主要原因是外匯收入正常化，而去年第一季的外匯表現非常強勁，這得益於更高的市場波動。

Fees from Global Payment Solutions had another good quarter, up by 6%. Wealth is another growth area that had a very good quarter, up by 14% on the same period last year as our investment continued to drive improved results. Private Banking was a standout performer, mainly driven by increased customer activity in brokerage and trading in Asia, but growth in wealth has been broad-based.

全球支付解決方案的費用又一個季度表現良好，上漲了 6%。財富是另一個成長領域，本季表現非常好，較去年同期成長了 14%，因為我們的投資繼續推動業績改善。私人銀行表現突出，主要得益於亞洲經紀和交易客戶活動的增加，但財富增長是普遍的。

To illustrate this, we acquired around 135,000 new-to-bank retail wealth customers in Hong Kong in the quarter. Approximately 60% of these were nonresidents attracted by our service and product capabilities in Hong Kong.

為了說明這一點，我們本季在香港新增了約 135,000 名零售財富客戶。其中約60％是非居民，他們被我們在香港的服務和產品能力所吸引。

Building on previous quarters, we attracted $27 billion of net new invested assets, of which $19 billion were in Asia. And our insurance new business CSM was $0.8 billion, up from $0.4 billion in the first quarter of last year.

在前幾季的基礎上，我們吸引了 270 億美元的淨新投資資產，其中 190 億美元在亞洲。我們的保險新業務 CSM 為 8 億美元，高於去年第一季的 4 億美元。

On credit, expected credit losses were $0.7 billion in the quarter, equivalent to 30 basis points of average loans. These were primarily Stage 3 charges across retail and wholesale. There was a $54 million charge related to our Mainland China commercial real estate portfolio.

信貸方面，本季預期信貸損失為 7 億美元，相當於平均貸款的 30 個基點。這些主要是針對零售和批發的第三階段收費。我們在中國大陸的商業房地產投資組合中有 5,400 萬美元的費用。

While challenges remain within the sector, we expect a more benign ECL contribution from it than last year. We remain comfortable with our current level of provisions and continue monitoring developments closely. And we are reconfirming our 2024 ECL guidance of around 40 basis points of average loans, recognizing the overall uncertainty from the flow-through effect of higher rates on the economy.

儘管該行業仍面臨挑戰，但我們預計其預期信用損失貢獻將比去年更為溫和。我們對目前的撥備水準感到滿意，並將繼續密切關注事態發展。我們重新確認了 2024 年預期信用損失指引，即平均貸款約為 40 個基點，同時認識到利率上升對經濟的傳導效應所帶來的整體不確定性。

Next, we are on track to meet our target of limiting 2024 cost growth to around 5% on a target basis. This quarter's year-on-year cost growth was impacted by 3 items. First, we chose to face the accrual of our performance-related pay more evenly this year than we did last year. This accounted for 2 percentage points of cost growth this quarter. We do not currently expect the total amount of performance-related pay for 2024 to be significantly different to 2023. So, the accrual will be lower over the next 3 quarters than it was in the same period last year.

接下來，我們有望實現將 2024 年成本成長限制在 5% 左右的目標。本季成本年增率受到3個因素的影響。首先，我們今年選擇比去年更均衡地提列績效工資。這佔本季成本成長2個百分點。我們目前預期 2024 年績效薪資總額與 2023 年不會有顯著差異。

Second, HSBC Innovation Banking contributed to 1 percentage point of cost growth this quarter as we only acquired SBB U.K. in the middle of March last year. We intend to provide you with a fuller update on that business at the half year, but I'm pleased that it has good momentum. In the U.K., we onboarded 183 new-to-bank innovation banking client groups in the quarter, the best quarter since acquisition.

其次，由於我們去年 3 月中旬才收購 SBB U.K.，匯豐創新銀行本季貢獻了 1 個百分點的成本成長。我們打算在半年後為您提供有關該業務的更全面的最新情況，但我很高興它的發展勢頭良好。在英國，我們本季吸收了 183 個新銀行創新銀行客戶群，這是收購以來表現最好的季度。

Finally, another percentage point of the cost growth in the quarter was due to the Bank Finland levy and the incremental FDIC special assessment. We remain committed to cost discipline, and we are reconfirming our guidance of limiting 2024 cost growth to circa 5% on a target basis, inclusive of all the above items.

最後，本季成本成長的另一個百分點是由於芬蘭銀行徵稅和增量聯邦存款保險公司（FDIC）特別評估。我們將繼續致力於成本控制，並重申我們的指導方針，即把 2024 年的成本增長限制在 5% 左右，包括上述所有項目。

On lending and deposits. There was good loan growth in the U.K., the Middle East, Mexico and Asia, excluding Hong Kong. Loan demand in Hong Kong remains subdued, largely due to the high interest rate differential with Mainland China.

關於貸款和存款。英國、中東、墨西哥和亞洲（香港除外）的貸款成長良好。香港的貸款需求依然低迷，主要原因是香港與中國內地的利差較大。

Overall, we continue to expect mid-single-digit loan growth over the medium to long term, but we expect demand to remain subdued in the near term. Deposits were down 2%. This was due to a range of factors, including seasonality, the switch from time deposits to wealth products in Hong Kong and our deliberate choice to forsake some highly price-sensitive deposits.

總體而言，我們繼續預期中長期貸款將維持中等個位數成長，但預期短期內需求仍將保持低迷。存款下降了2%。這是由一系列因素造成的，包括季節性、香港從定期存款轉變為財富產品的轉變以及我們有意放棄一些對價格高度敏感的存款。

Next, our CET 1 ratio was 15.2%, up 40 basis points on the fourth quarter. Organic capital generation and the gain from the sale of the Canadian business enabled us to announce $8.8 billion of capital distributions this quarter. This includes a share buyback of up to $3 billion, which is expected to have an impact of around 40 basis points on our CET1 ratio in the second quarter.

其次，我們的 CET 1 比率為 15.2%，較第四季上升了 40 個基點。有機資本產生和出售加拿大業務的收益使我們本季宣布了 88 億美元的資本分配。其中包括高達 30 億美元的股票回購，預計將對我們的第二季 CET1 比率產生約 40 個基點的影響。

For modeling purposes, please note that the $5.8 billion of dividends announced today as well as the $5.9 billion in respect of the ordinary dividend announced at the full year results in February will both be reflected in TNAV in the second quarter. At closing of the sale of HSBC Argentina, which is expected within 12 months, we will also recognize $4.9 billion of foreign exchange reserve recycling losses subject to any movement in this reserve up until completion.

出於建模目的，請注意，今天宣布的 58 億美元股息以及 2 月份全年業績公佈時宣布的 59 億美元普通股息都將反映在第二季度的 TNAV 中。預計匯豐阿根廷銀行出售交易將在 12 個月內完成，在交易完成之前，我們還將確認 49 億美元的外匯儲備回收損失，該損失將受該儲備金的任何變動影響。

These losses have already been accumulated in capital over the previous years. Therefore, recognition in the P&L will have no impact on CET1 nor on TNAV. Finally, looking forward to the rest of the year, our good first quarter puts us on track and we are reconfirming all of our 2024 guidance.

這些損失在過去幾年中已在資本中累積。因此，在損益表中確認不會對 CET1 和 TNAV 產生影響。最後，展望今年剩餘的時間，我們第一季的良好表現使我們走上了正軌，我們正在重新確認 2024 年的所有指導方針。

A mid-teens return on tangible equity, excluding notable items, a banking NII of at least $41 billion, ECLs of around 40 basis points cost growth limited to around 5% on a target basis and a 50% dividend payout ratio.

不包括值得注意的項目，有形資產回報率達到中等水平，銀行淨資產收益率至少為410 億美元，預期信用損失約為40 個基點，成本增長限制在目標基礎上5% 左右，股息支付率為50%。

And with that, Louis, can we please go to Q&A.

路易斯，我們可以進入問答環節了嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today comes from Joseph Dickerson at Jefferies.

（操作員指示）我們今天的第一個問題來自傑富瑞（Jefferies）的約瑟夫·迪克森（Joseph Dickerson）。

Congrats, Noel on a great tenure at the bank and well done for the ROE and the capital return. I guess, just in terms of my question, the PD migration in Hong Kong, if you go back to the way you were computing it previously actually looks like it improved quarter-on-quarter and certainly under the new definition, has stabilized.

恭喜諾埃爾在銀行任職期間表現出色，並祝賀 ROE 和資本回報率取得良好成績。我想，就我的問題而言，如果您回到之前的計算方式，香港的 PD 遷移實際上看起來環比有所改善，並且根據新的定義，已經穩定下來。

I think it's Slide 17, if I'm not mistaken, in the presentation. Is that a little bit better than where your expectations were a few months ago? I know when I was in Hong Kong recently, it sounded like things were starting to stabilize, but is that better than where you were thinking a few months ago?

如果我沒記錯的話，我認為它是簡報中的第 17 張投影片。這比您幾個月前的預期要好一點嗎？我知道我最近在香港的時候，聽起來情況開始穩定下來，但這比你幾個月前想的要好嗎？

And then secondly, on the buybacks, is the $3 billion number due more to the calendar effect? Or are you looking to kind of boost the run rate there from the $2 billion in the quarter?

其次，關於回購，30 億美元的數字是否更多是因為日曆效應？或者您希望將本季的營業額從 20 億美元提高到現在的水平？

Thank you, Joseph. So, first, on the time deposit reclassification, we have actually reclassified some private bank term deposits to time deposits. This is due to the observation of their behavior and the recognition that they better classify this time deposits. This rebases the number. But as you could see from the 2 choices we have, it does not affect the trend.

謝謝你，約瑟夫。因此，首先，關於定期存款重新分類，我們實際上將一些私人銀行定期存款重新分類為定期存款。這是由於觀察了他們的行為並認識到他們更好地對這些定期存款進行了分類。這將重新確定數字。但正如您從我們的兩個選擇中看到的，它不會影響趨勢。

So, therefore, the trend that we've seen under both classifications is the same, and we've seen the first quarter stable quarter-on-quarter. It's too early to call it a peak, but we've always expected migration this year to be slower than what we've seen last year. And this just confirms the trend change from what we've seen in full year 2023.

因此，我們在兩種分類下看到的趨勢是相同的，我們看到第一季環比穩定。現在稱其為高峰還為時過早，但我們一直預計今年的移民速度將比去年慢。這正好證實了我們在 2023 年全年看到的趨勢變化。

As regards to your buyback question, so the short answer is, yes, this is indeed due to calendar effects. We just completed a EUR 2 billion buyback in 2 months. That's about $1 billion a month. That is the fastest run rate we've done in terms of share buybacks ever.

關於您的回購問題，簡短的回答是，是的，這確實是由於日曆效應造成的。我們剛剛在兩個月內完成了20億歐元的回購。這大約相當於每月10億美元。這是我們有史以來最快的股票回購速度。

We are now announcing a EUR 3 billion buyback, which we intend to do over the next 3 months, starting after AGM. We will see how the run rate goes, it will remain at the $1 billion run rate. We will see how it will go.

我們現在宣布回購 30 億歐元，我們計劃在年度股東大會後的未來 3 個月內完成。我們將觀察運行率如何變化，它將保持在 10 億美元的運行率。我們將拭目以待事情將會如何發展。

As regards any future amount of buyback or whether we're doing a buyback, one, it remains our intention to return excess capital to our shareholders through a rolling series of share buyback.

至於未來的回購金額或我們是否進行回購，首先，我們仍然打算透過一系列滾動的股票回購將多餘的資本返還給股東。

And, second, we will decide on a quarter-by-quarter basis based on our capital outlook, the loan growth outlook and other parameters as and when every quarter.

其次，我們將根據每季的資本前景、貸款成長前景和其他參數逐季度做出決定。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question today comes from Raul Sinha at JPMorgan.

（操作員指示）我們今天的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Raul Sinha。

Maybe 2 from me as well. Just doing, George, on this point on distribution and looking at the sort of moving parts for capital, one of the interesting things in this quarter was the move up in RWAs. I was wondering if you could give us a little bit more color on the growth in RWAs. The EUR 7 billion of increase driven by asset quality trends. I think you're calling out is predominantly in Asia.

也許我也有 2 個。喬治，就分配這一點以及資本的變動部分而言，本季有趣的事情之一是風險加權資產 (RWA) 的上升。我想知道您是否可以向我們詳細介紹一下 RWA 的成長。 70億歐元的成長是由資產品質趨勢推動的。我認為你所呼籲的主要是亞洲地區。

What should we think about the sort of outlook for RWA growth from here even if loan build is muted, just to get a sense of the amount of capital that you will have in content terms for distributions?

即使貸款成長放緩，我們應該如何看待 RWA 成長的前景，以便了解在分配內容方面您將擁有的資本量？

And I guess the second question to Noel, just maybe a question for your broader thoughts, no. The 5 years proceeding have been pretty extraordinary, not just for HSBC, but I guess, for a lot of people given in your markets given the pandemic. But when we look at where HSBC is now, you exited Canada, you announced Argentina. You're in the process of exiting quite a few smaller markets.

我想問諾埃爾的第二個問題可能只是關於你更廣泛的想法的問題，不是嗎？這五年的發展相當不平凡，不僅對匯豐銀行而言，我想，對於你們市場上的許多人來說，考慮到疫情，也是如此。但當我們看看匯豐銀行現在的狀況時，你們退出了加拿大，並宣布進軍阿根廷市場。您即將退出不少較小的市場。

Return on tangible equity is already in the mid-teens. You're buying back stock at $3 billion a quarter, you've got a special dividend as well. I guess what I'm really interested in is from here onwards, what do you think is left to do for the group to kind of progress?

有形資產報酬率已經達到十五六成。您每季以 30 億美元的價格回購股票，同時也獲得特別股利。我想我真正感興趣的是，從現在開始，您認為還需要做些什麼才能讓團隊進步？

Thank you, Raul. I'll start with your first question first. So, on RWA outlook. So the RWA growth, we called on a quarter-on-quarter basis, $24 billion. First, about 40% of it related to lending and other asset growth. And as you can see from our lending book, we've grown our lending book by EUR 5 billion. There's a number of areas of growth that contributed to around 40% of it, $9 billion.

謝謝你，勞爾。我先回答你的第一個問題。因此，關於 RWA 前景。因此，我們預計 RWA 將季成長為 240 億美元。首先，其中約40%與貸款和其他資產成長有關。從我們的貸款帳簿上您可以看到，我們的貸款帳簿增加了 50 億歐元。多個成長領域貢獻了其中的 40% 左右，即 90 億美元。

Then we've had a $5 billion market tristRWA growth. This is due to a pickup in NSS activity against a subdued 4Q, and it's more in line with their activity levels in the first 3 quarters of the year, if you want. And this is the normalization of the market's activity.

然後我們的市場風險加權資產成長達到了 50 億美元。這是因為 NSS 活動相對於第四季度的低迷有所回升，如果您願意的話，這更符合今年前三個季度的活動水平。這就是市場活動的正常化。

And then there is $7 billion, which we classified broadly as asset quality. Now, asset quality, first, it is a continuous exercise. We do this portfolio monitoring review on a regular basis. We have recognized across a number of geographies and a number of sectors, certain names, which we've decided to downgrade on the basis that the interest rate pressure on their cash flows has been more severe.

還有 70 億美元，我們將其大致歸類為資產品質。現在，資產質量，首先，這是一個持續的運動。我們定期進行此類投資組合監控審查。我們已經在多個地區和多個行業中發現某些公司的評級，我們決定下調這些公司的評級，因為這些公司的現金流所承受的利率壓力更大。

You will not see an equivalent of that downgrade in ECL. And that's mainly because for many of these customers, their balance sheet remains strong. So, we're comfortable with their balance sheet and therefore, there is no ECL implication from this downgrade. But just closing the loop, this RWA downgrade, you will see some of it materialize in our Stage 3 loans, where we increased our Stage 3 loans by about $2 billion, and that's exactly the mapping of some of this asset quality.

您不會在 ECL 中看到與此降級相當的現象。這主要是因為對許多客戶來說，他們的資產負債表仍然強勁。所以，我們對他們的資產負債表感到滿意，因此，這次降級不會帶來預期信用損失的影響。但是，只要完成循環，這個 RWA 降級，您就會看到其中一些在我們的第三階段貸款中實現，我們將第三階段貸款增加了約 20 億美元，這正是部分資產品質的映射。

With regards to how we look forward, we are very comfortable where we are today. Our credit metrics remain solid. As I say, the balance sheet of our customers remains strong for a number of them for at least the exposure that is collateralized. We're very comfortable with the level of collateralization and the LTV. And therefore, we do not foresee at this stage today any additional action we should be taking.

對於未來展望，我們對目前的狀況感到非常滿意。我們的信用指標依然穩健。正如我所說，對於許多客戶來說，他們的資產負債表仍然保持強勁，至少在有抵押的風險敞口方面是如此。我們對抵押水準和貸款價值比 (LTV) 非常滿意。因此，目前我們預計還不需要採取任何額外行動。

We will obviously monitor the book on a regular basis as we always do. Noel?

我們顯然會像往常一樣定期監控這本書。諾埃爾？

Thank you. It has certainly been an extraordinary 5 years, I should say, not just for HSBC, but for the world. And I'm really pleased and grateful I want to pay tribute to the team for the way they've collectively navigated that. And during that whole process, the external environment executed on a complex but absolutely critical transformation plan over the past 5 years.

謝謝。我應該說，這無疑是不平凡的五年，不僅對匯豐銀行而言如此，對全世界而言亦是如此。我真的很高興並且心存感激，我想向團隊表示敬意，感謝他們共同努力實現這一目標。而在整個過程中，外在環境在過去5年執行了一項複雜但絕對關鍵的轉型計畫。

And the outcome of that hard work is evident in the financial performance last year and the financial performance in Q1. I also want to say thanks to Mark, with such volatility in an external environment. Any CEO needs the support of their chair, their advice, their guidance, and I've had that all the way through and have had the support from the Board all the way through in navigating what has been a very complex external environment.

這些辛勤工作的成果在去年的財務表現和第一季的財務表現中顯而易見。在外部環境如此動盪的情況下，我也想向馬克表示感謝。任何執行長都需要董事長的支持、建議和指導，在應對非常複雜的外部環境的過程中，我一直都得到了董事長的支持和董事會的支持。

But the team, the Board, Mark, collectively, we've done a good job of navigating it. Now, if I look forward, I'm not going to give to do list to my successor because that is not the fair thing to do to anyone. But I will give you some thoughts about what we as a team are very much focused on. And I'm focused on for as long as I'm still CEO, and that is continuing the momentum.

但團隊、董事會、馬克，我們大家一起，很好地解決了這個問題。現在，如果我展望未來，我不會把要做的事情交給我的繼任者，因為這對任何人都不公平。但我會給你一些關於我們作為一個團隊非常關注的事情的想法。只要我仍擔任首席執行官，我就會專注於此，並延續這一勢頭。

You don't work as hard as we worked for the past 5 years and then take the eye off the ball at this moment in time. So, I'm very focused on a smooth, orderly transition. I'm very focused on continued execution of the strategy. I want to clarify our thinking on one element of the strategy. We have exited a lot of businesses, a lot of RWAs over the past 5 years.

過去五年來，你們沒有像我們一樣努力工作，而是在此時分心。所以，我非常注重平穩、有序的過渡。我非常專注於該策略的持續執行。我想澄清一下我們對該戰略一個要素的想法。過去五年來，我們退出了許多業務、許多 RWA。

The one thing we've protected whilst doing that is the international core of HSBC. The countries we remain in, the businesses we remain in are fundamentally now focused on the international nature and essence of HSBC, and we will continue to do that.

在這個過程中，我們所保護的就是匯豐的國際核心。我們所在的國家、所從事的業務現在從根本上都集中於匯豐的國際性質和本質，我們將繼續這樣做。

Our key requirement is to continue to deliver good returns that are sustainable and repeatable whilst also taking advantage of the growth opportunities as they emerge in a world that becomes more stable and there are inherent in our customer franchise.

我們的關鍵要求是繼續提供可持續、可重複的良好回報，同時也利用在變得更加穩定的世界中出現的成長機會以及我們的客戶特許經營中固有的成長機會。

Therefore, we're very focused on continuing the development of wealth, our transaction banking capabilities, our global wholesale banking capabilities and then being ready for when corporate loan demand picks up, we can take advantage of that to couple good returns with sustainable growth.

因此，我們非常注重繼續發展財富、交易銀行能力和全球批發銀行能力，然後在企業貸款需求回升時做好準備，我們可以利用這一點將良好的回報與永續成長結合起來。

And I think you've seen evidence of that in these results. Hong Kong is subdued at the moment, but we understand why with the rate differential in China. But if you look at the rest of the world, as George said, there's balance sheet growth in Wholesale Banking, in the rest of Asia, in the Middle East, in U.K., in Europe. We're seeing good growth elsewhere.

我認為您已經在這些結果中看到了證據。目前香港市場表現低迷，但我們能夠理解其中的原因，因為中國有利率差異。但如果你看看世界其他地區，正如喬治所說，企業銀行的資產負債表都在成長，包括亞洲其他地區、中東、英國和歐洲。我們看到其他地方也出現了良好的成長。

So, it's about focus, momentum, continuing to couple good returns with good growth.

因此，關鍵在於專注、動力，以及繼續將良好的回報與良好的成長結合。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question today comes from Jeremy Hugh at CICC.

（操作員指示）我們今天的下一個問題來自 CICC 的 Jeremy Hugh。

So, the first question is on deposits. We're glad to see that cat migration in Hong Kong is slowing down, but if not stabilized at this level. But on the other hand, I think the bank has seen some deposit outflow in Q1, while your Hong Kong local peers still see some deposit growth. So, I'm wondering if there is a strategic trade-off between the deposit growth and the cost for you at this stage? And how do you see that trend in the rest of the year?

因此，第一個問題是關於存款的。我們很高興看到香港的貓類遷徙速度正在放緩，但並沒有穩定在這個水平。但另一方面，我認為該銀行在第一季出現了一些存款流出，而香港本地同業的存款仍有所成長。那麼，我想知道，現階段，存款成長和成本之間是否存在策略性權衡？您如何看待今年剩餘時間的趨勢？

The second question is on the structural hedge. So, I'm wondering if this quarter, you could share with us some breakdown of our structural hedge and how much did we benefit from the reinvestment of the structural hedge? And if there is any run rate that we can refer to?

第二個問題是關於結構性避險。所以，我想知道這個季度您是否可以與我們分享一些我們的結構性對沖的細目，以及我們從結構性對沖的再投資中獲得了多少收益？有沒有什麼運行率可以供我們參考？

Thank you, Jeremy. So, on your first question about deposits in Hong Kong. So, if you remember at Q4, our deposits in Hong Kong have increased by about $14 billion. What we've seen in Q1 this year is a decrease of about $16 billion. Therefore, you can see seasonality playing across the 2 quarters, and therefore, is broadly stable across the 2 quarters.

謝謝你，傑瑞米。那麼，關於您第一個關於香港存款的問題。所以，如果你還記得，在第四季度，我們在香港的存款增加了約 140 億美元。我們看到今年第一季的減少量約為 160 億美元。因此，您可以看到季節性在兩個季度內發揮作用，並且在兩個季度內大致保持穩定。

What happened though is, some of these deposit inflows in Q4 related to some deposit campaigns we were driving to drive some of our deposits into wealth. And when you look at Q1, while you see the deposit outflows, you also can see that $19 billion of our net new invested assets were in Asia.

但實際情況是，第四季的部分存款流入與我們為將部分存款轉化為財富而進行的一些存款活動有關。當您查看第一季時，您會看到存款流出，同時還可以看到我們的淨新投資資產中有 190 億美元在亞洲。

Therefore, a chunk of these outflows has manifested or translated into wealth inflows for us, which was the purpose of the campaign in Q4 and explains if you want the seasonality of this deposit.

因此，這些資金流出中的大部分已經體現或轉化為我們的財富流入，這是第四季度活動的目的，並解釋了你是否想要這筆存款的季節性。

Second, look, we have a powerful deposit franchise. We have a very cherished and viable franchise. We continue globally being a very attractive deposit proposition for both our retail and wholesale customers. We cherish this. We continue investing in our deposit capabilities. And throughout the last 6 quarters, you've seen how our deposit base has been very stable with our deposit costs being relatively benign compared to some of our peers. Therefore, I won't comment on month-to-month movements between ourselves and our peers.

第二，我們擁有強大的存款特許經營權。我們擁有非常珍貴且可行的特許經營權。我們繼續在全球範圍內為零售和批發客戶提供極具吸引力的存款服務。我們非常珍惜這一點。我們將繼續投資於我們的存款能力。在過去的 6 個季度中，您會發現我們的存款基礎非常穩定，而且與一些同行相比，我們的存款成本相對較低。因此，我不會對我們與同行之間的逐月變動發表評論。

If I move on to your second question about the structural hedge. So, first, you would have noticed that we increased this quarter, the structural hedge by about $10 billion, taking it to $487 million, with the average weighted average life broadly unchanged at just shy of 3 years.

如果我繼續回答你關於結構化對沖的第二個問題。首先，您會注意到，本季我們增加了約 100 億美元結構性對沖，達到 4.87 億美元，而平均加權平均壽命基本上保持不變，略低於 3 年。

Second, we commit at this stage to continue our structural hedging activity. Obviously, this will remain subject to market conditions, but we will continue the trend that we put in Q1 based on current market outlook. This activity of additional structural hedging will contribute to a mild headwind toward banking NII. And this is due to the fact that the rate curves are inverted as you know, and you can do the math.

其次，我們現階段承諾繼續進行結構性避險活動。顯然，這仍將取決於市場狀況，但根據當前的市場前景，我們將延續第一季的趨勢。這種額外的結構性對沖活動將對銀行業NII造成輕微的阻力。這是因為利率曲線是反轉的，這一點你們也知道，你們可以計算一下。

But equally, we also are reinvesting maturing structural hedges at higher rates. And this reinvestment of maturing of structural hedges at higher rates is a tailwind into banking NII. Between the 2 of those effects, the structural hedge activity for the full year 2024 would remain a net tailwind to our banking NII. We have not yet quantified to the market that tailwind.

但同樣，我們也在以更高的利率對到期的結構性避險進行再投資。這種以較高利率到期的結構性避險再投資將對銀行業NII起到推動作用。在這兩種影響之間，2024 年全年的結構性對沖活動仍將對我們的銀行 NII 產生淨順風作用。我們尚未向市場量化這種順風。

We're looking at enhancing our disclosure in this space. But that tailwind has been factored into our guidance of at least $41 billion bank NII and obviously, factored into our return on tangible equity mid-teens guidance.

我們正在考慮加強這一領域的披露。但是，這一順風因素已被計入我們至少 410 億美元銀行 NII 的預期中，顯然也已計入我們有形資產回報率中位數預期中。

The next question today comes from Jason Napier at UBS.

今天的下一個問題來自瑞銀的傑森·納皮爾。

First of all, just to echo the best wishes, Noel, for the next chapter of your career and private life, I think, a well-earned rebalancing.

首先，諾埃爾，我只想表達我對你的良好祝愿，祝你在職業生涯和私人生活的下一篇章中，獲得應得的重新平衡。

George, I just wondered whether you talk a little bit within the context of higher for longer, you've referenced subdued loan demand in Hong Kong due to the differentials in interest rates. And I just wonder whether one of your peers has spoken at some length about looking forward to a change in asset mix as loan demand comes back as a way to defend margins and revenue.

喬治，我只是想知道您是否可以在長期高位背景下談談這個問題，您提到由於利率差異導致香港的貸款需求低迷。我只是想知道，您的一位同行是否曾詳細談到期待隨著貸款需求的回升而改變資產組合，以此來捍衛利潤率和收入。

So, I wonder whether you might talk a little bit about whether that's a material part of the plan? And sort of what do you think that means for revenue sort of evolution in the next few quarters? I think I certainly was somewhat surprised that we didn't see an upgrade to banking NII guidance this quarter. I know you don't rebalance every quarter, but I just wonder whether you might talk to the role that Higher for longer has on asset mix and then on credit demand.

所以，我想知道您是否可以談談這是否是該計劃的重要組成部分？您認為這對未來幾季的收入變化意味著什麼？我認為我確實有些驚訝，因為我們本季沒有看到銀行 NII 指導的升級。我知道您不會每個季度都進行重新平衡，但我只是想知道您是否可以談談長期來看高等教育在資產組合和信貸需求方面發揮的作用。

And then secondly, wealth was phenomenal in Q1. I know there's a part of the business that's quite closely linked to what goes on with the Hang Seng Index, which is now 20% in in a short space of time. But I just wonder whether you could talk to the sustainability of those run rates. Is that the strategy delivering the sort of net new money flows? Or is there an element of sort of market volume there that we should be a little bit careful about?

其次，第一季的財富表現驚人。我知道有些業務與恆生指數的走勢密切相關，恆生指數在短時間內已上漲 20%。但我只是想知道您是否可以談談這些運行率的可持續性。這是能帶來淨新資金流入的策略嗎？或者是否存在一些我們應該稍加註意的市場容量因素？

Thank you, Jason. So, first on Banking NII, we recognize there are kind of a couple of encouraging developments. The first one is the higher for longer on the rate side that would look like more favorable than when we discussed last in February. And, the second one we just touched on, which is the balance sheet mix, specifically in Hong Kong, where we've seen term deposits remain stable for this quarter.

謝謝你，傑森。首先，關於銀行 NII，我們意識到有一些令人鼓舞的發展。第一個是利率方面，長期維持高位，這看起來比我們二月討論的時候更為有利。第二個我們剛剛提到，即資產負債表組合，特別是在香港，我們看到本季定期存款保持穩定。

So, we recognize these tailwinds to our banking NII, but we also recognize quite early in the year, and these factors can still change. So this is why we didn't change our guidance. And as you said, Jason, I don't think you should expect us to update our guidance every quarter. We would reconsider this every quarter. But for this quarter, we're just sticking with our at least $41 billion.

因此，我們認識到銀行 NII 的這些順風因素，但我們也在今年年初就意識到，這些因素仍可能會改變。這就是我們沒有改變指導的原因。正如你所說，傑森，我認為你不應該期望我們每個季度都更新我們的指導。我們每季都會重新考慮這一點。但就本季而言，我們仍維持至少 410 億美元的目標。

In terms of the wealth performance, so recognize mid-teens percentage growth in wealth, 34% for our private bank. I would say a couple of things. The first one is, yes, this is an area that we've already said it's a focused strategic area. We are investing in this area. Big part of our investments goes towards this area, and we're very pleased to see the results of our investments generate revenue fairly quickly.

就財富表現而言，我們的私人銀行的財富成長率達到了十幾歲的水平，為 34%。我想說幾件事。第一個是，是的，我們已經說過，這是一個重點策略領域。我們正在對該領域進行投資。我們的投資很大一部分流向了這一領域，我們很高興看到我們的投資成果相當快速地產生了收入。

You can see that through net new invested assets growth. You can see that through our CSM, new business CSM growth in insurance as well as in the actual revenue performance. This being said, I would just caution you not to annualize the numbers you're seeing because Q1 2023 had somewhat subdued January in it when China and Hong Kong were still closed.

您可以透過淨新投資資產的成長來看到這一點。您可以透過我們的 CSM、保險新業務 CSM 成長以及實際收入表現看到這一點。話雖如此，我只是想提醒你不要將你看到的數字年化，因為 2023 年第一季的數據略低於 1 月份，當時中國和香港仍處於關閉狀態。

So, therefore, you've seen more pickup in activity in the Q1 '23 at the back end of it, whereas we had a full proper Q1 '24. So, there is an element of not annualizing the performance, but expecting that performance to continue growing.

因此，您會看到 23 年第一季末的活動有所回升，而 24 年第一季我們的活動則表現得十分出色。因此，存在不將業績年度化但預期業績將繼續成長的因素。

I just realized I didn't touch on your asset mix question of the first question. Look, we do not foresee a material change in our asset mix. We had seen for the last few quarters of last year, the main growth take place in mortgages and recognizing mortgages have seen very competitive levels both in the U.K. and Hong Kong, and the margins have been quite tight.

我剛剛意識到我沒有觸及第一個問題的資產組合問題。我們預計我們的資產組合不會發生重大變化。我們看到，去年最後幾個季度，主要的成長發生在抵押貸款方面，並且英國和香港的抵押貸款競爭非常激烈，利潤率也相當緊張。

As we start seeing pickup in wholesale demand, as we start peeing pickup in unsecured lending, we are more hopeful that those will drive higher margins than if you want what we see in mortgages. And our numbers in Q1 did show that this pickup definitely is there in areas of Asia, Southeast Asia, India, the Middle East, the U.K., et cetera. And the next in line for that pickup will be Hong Kong, which we expect at some stage later in the year as we see dollar rates ease.

隨著我們開始看到批發需求回升，隨著我們開始看到無擔保貸款回升，我們更加希望這些將帶來比抵押貸款更高的利潤率。我們第一季的數據確實顯示，亞洲、東南亞、印度、中東、英國等地區確實有這種回升趨勢。下一個復甦的市場將是香港，我們預計，隨著美元利率下降，香港的復甦將在今年稍後出現。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Perlie Mong from KBW.

(操作員指示) 下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Perlie Mong。

Can I just dig a little bit further into Jason's question just now on higher for longer. So, I know you probably don't like to comment on longer-term NII. But I guess in a higher for longer rate environment, which is how are you thinking about the trajectory going from here because it sounds to me that deposit migration is probably, well, stabilized a lot.

我能否進一步深入探討 Jason 剛才在 higher for longer 上提出的問題。所以，我知道您可能不喜歡對長期 NII 發表評論。但我猜測，在長期利率較高的環境下，您如何看待未來的發展軌跡，因為在我看來，存款遷移可能已經穩定了很多。

And I would have thought any longer pricing that hasn't already come through will come through in the next few months. And I guess in a higher for longer rate environment, you can probably build more hedges at better rates as well, et cetera. And there's obviously a tailwind as you mentioned in this year already. So, how does that inform your thinking on your medium-term RoTE? So I guess that's the first question.

我原本以為任何尚未公佈的長期定價都會在未來幾個月內公佈。我想，在長期利率較高的環境下，你也可能以更好的利率建立更多的對沖，等等。正如您所說，今年顯然已經出現了順風。那麼，這對您對中期 RoTE 的思考有何影響？我想這是第一個問題。

And the second question, again, on broader activity level, maybe not just on credit. So, again, I guess just noting your point that Hong Kong might be a mix in line to pick up. But I guess, overall, the emerging market is probably not benefiting in terms of activity level and in terms of capital inflows from the higher U.S. rates.

第二個問題同樣涉及更廣泛的活動層面，可能不只涉及信貸。因此，我再次強調，我只是想指出你的觀點，即香港可能是值得選擇的混合體。但我猜測，總體而言，新興市場可能不會從美國利率上升這一活動水平和資本流入方面受益。

So, how does that impact, I guess, trading activities and capital flows, et cetera, just how are you thinking about the flip side of hirer longer?

那麼，我想這會對貿易活動、資本流動等產生什麼影響呢？

Thank you, Perlie. So first, look, yes, we recognize higher for longer is definitely a tailwind or a reduction of a headwind we've forecast in our banking NII. And as I said, there has been a number of manifestation of tailwinds now compared to when we last spoke in February.

謝謝你，Perlie。首先，是的，我們認識到，長期來看更高的水平肯定是順風，或者說是減弱了我們在銀行 NII 中預測的逆風。正如我所說的，與我們二月上次談話時相比，現在已經出現了許多順風跡象。

But equally, it is early in the year. And as you've seen, these things do change. And we now, therefore, want to bake in some sense of uncertainty due to the changing parameters. We will update some longer than what we're updating but not at this quarter, barely. So, do expect us coming in the future quarters and give you further outlook for the future.

但同樣，現在才剛年初。正如你所見，這些事情確實發生了變化。因此，我們現在想要由於參數的變化而產生某種不確定性。我們的更新時間將會比現在更長，但不會在本季度，差不多。因此，請期待我們在未來幾季的表現，並為您提供進一步的未來展望。

I would say the one parameter, just to keep in mind, as you start planning for '25 is take Argentina out because, obviously, subject to the sale completing, which we expect to complete in the next 12 months, that potential $1 billion contribution from Argentina will go away from our banking NII. That's the most kind of predictable parameter where we stand today as you look into 2025.

我想說，當你開始為25 年做計劃時，要記住的一個參數是把阿根廷排除在外，因為很明顯，這取決於出售的完成情況，我們預計出售將在未來12 個月內完成，潛在的10 億美元貢獻阿根廷將退出我們的銀行 NII。這是我們今天展望 2025 年時最可預測的參數。

In terms of the broader activity level, first, if you look at the wealth performance, it just demonstrates how wealth remains very resilient. And that's particularly true in Hong Kong, but very much so across Asia. Second, when you look at our transaction banking activities, apart from foreign exchange, which has an idiosyncrasy related to Q1 '23 with a very high volatility has performed across the various areas of its fee earning activities.

就更廣泛的活動水平而言，首先，如果你看看財富表現，它就表明財富仍然非常有彈性。這種現像在香港尤其如此，在整個亞洲都很常見。其次，當您查看我們的交易銀行活動時，除了外匯之外，它與 23 年第一季具有特殊的特性，波動性非常高，這在其收費活動的各個領域都有所表現。

And then our activity is very much benefiting from cross-border trends. If you look at some of the investments or foreign direct investments or trade flows taking place intra region in Asia between China and ASEAN between India and ASEAN, between India and the west, et cetera, all of those trends are growing. I mean the numbers are staggering in some cases. And these are the activities that our business is operating on.

我們的活動很大程度上受益於跨境趨勢。如果你觀察一下亞洲區域內中國與東協之間、印度與東協之間、印度與西方之間等的一些投資、外國直接投資或貿易流動，你會發現所有這些趨勢都在成長。我的意思是，在某些情況下，這個數字是驚人的。這些就是我們的業務所進行的活動。

So, therefore, while recognizing that there will be some interest rate challenges for borrowers at these levels, there is still a very strong underlying network activity, which is benefiting our overall businesses, particularly in wholesale transaction banking, anyway.

因此，雖然我們認識到在這些水平上借款人會面臨一些利率挑戰，但仍然存在非常強勁的潛在網路活動，這對我們的整體業務有利，特別是批發交易銀行業務。

On that, it's just I've also noticed that China exports volumes have been going up, but value has been coming down. And that is in part because of various things. FX is be part of it but also government subsidies. How does that affect your, I guess, your profitability in the region, volumes going up, the value is going down?

就此而言，我還注意到中國的出口量一直在上升，但出口額卻在下降。部分原因是由於多種因素。外匯是其中的一部分，也是政府補貼。我想，這會對您在該地區的獲利能力產生什麼影響呢？

Perlie, if I can just give you an indication. What we are seeing at the moment is a very strong level of activity of China corporates expanding across the rest of Asia.

Perlie，如果我可以給你一個提示的話。目前我們看到的是中國企業在亞洲其他地區的擴張活動非常活躍。

So, our outbound activity from Mainland China to the rest of the world is seeing a significant increase in activity over the past 12 months. We've seen that trend continue in the first quarter of this year. So, a lot of people talk about inward investment into China slowing down. But what I would say is outward investment from China to the rest of the world is actually picking up at quite a pace a very significant pace.

因此，在過去 12 個月中，我們從中國大陸到世界其他地區的出境遊活動顯著增加。我們看到這一趨勢在今年第一季持續延續。因此，很多人都在談論中國吸引外資的放緩。但我想說的是，中國對世界其他地區的投資實際上正在以相當快的速度成長，而且成長速度非常顯著。

We're very well placed to capture that outflow, and we are capturing that outflow. And our business in Mainland China performed well last year. It's performing well again in the first quarter of this year and its outbound activity is performing extremely well. So, we'll give more updates on that at the half year, but we are capturing that. And that is why actually I think the rest of Asia is performing well on balance sheet because a lot of it is being fed by good intra-Asia activity and outbound from Mainland China.

我們完全有能力捕捉這種流出，而且我們正在捕捉這種流出。去年我們在中國大陸的業務表現良好。今年第一季該公司再次表現​​良好，其出站活動表現極為出色。因此，我們將在半年內提供更多有關該方面的更新，但我們正在捕捉這一點。這就是為什麼我認為亞洲其他地區的資產負債表表現良好，因為其中很大一部分是受到亞洲內部活動和中國大陸對外投資活動的推動。

Next question today comes from Katherine Lei at JPMorgan.

今天的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Katherine Lei。

I have 3 questions, 3 small questions, actually. The first one is on noninterest income. I look at the breakdown of noninterest income. It seems like wealth is doing quite well. But on Transaction Banking, there is some weakness, I think it's down 9% Y-o-Y. Can we know what is the reason? And how should we triangulate this to the full year? What are the drivers to that? So this is the first one.

實際上，我有 3 個問題，3 個小問題。第一個是關於非利息收入。我看一下非利息收入的明細。看來財運方面表現還不錯。但在交易銀行業務方面，存在一些弱點，我認為其同比下降了 9％。我們能知道這是什麼原因嗎？那麼我們應該怎樣將其與全年情況進行比較呢？造成這種情況的因素有哪些？這是第一個。

The second one is on Hong Kong. With Hong Kong relaxing LTV ratios, I think basically, not only they would be they relax the purchase requirements and the stability requirements on residential properties. So, I think that there is a significant jump in transaction. So, I was thinking that this should be positive to mortgage at least, and then we are a big mortgage providers in Hong Kong.

第二個是關於香港的。隨著香港放寬抵押貸款價值比，我認為基本上他們不僅會放寬住宅物業的購買要求和穩定要求。所以，我認為交易量會大幅成長。所以，我認為這至少對抵押貸款來說是有利的，我們是香港一家大型抵押貸款提供者。

So, will that have any impact on our outlook in terms of growth, particularly related to Hong Kong? Second one. And then the last one, I think, is on cost. If I look at the first quarter, I think cost is up 8%, including levy. How should I look at this? And then are we on track to the 5% cost growth this year?

那麼，這會對我們的成長前景（特別是與香港相關的成長前景）產生任何影響嗎？第二個。我認為最後一個問題是成本。如果我看第一季度，我認為成本上漲了 8%，包括稅收。我該如何看待此事？那麼，我們今年的成本成長能達到 5% 嗎？

Thank you, Katherine. I'll take question 1 and 3, and I'll hand over to Noel to address your second question about the outlook for Hong Kong. So, first on non-NII.

謝謝你，凱瑟琳。我將回答問題 1 和 3，然後我將交給 Noel 來回答您關於香港前景的第二個問題。首先談談非NII。

Wealth has performed well. Transaction banking weakness is specifically due to foreign exchange. That's driving the whole weakness. And the reason, as I called it out earlier, the reason is that foreign exchange had a record strong quarter 1 '23 on the back of heightened market anxiety and volatility back then due to the banking crisis.

財運方面表現良好。交易銀行業務的疲軟具體是由於外匯造成的。這才是導致整體疲軟的原因。正如我之前所說，原因在於，在當時銀行業危機導致的市場焦慮和波動加劇的背景下，外匯市場在 23 年第一季創下了強勁表現。

So, therefore, we're doing a comparison to a record quarter, and it will show that drop. But if you look at the number itself, and the revenue itself for foreign exchange, it is back to normalized levels. So, there is nothing to worry about here. It's on the contrary back to normalized levels, and we continue to expect some cyclicality in that space, while we continue expecting growth in the other areas of transaction banking.

因此，我們正在與創紀錄的季度進行比較，它將顯示出下降。但如果你看看數字本身以及外匯收入本身，它已經回到正常水平了。所以，沒有什麼好擔心的。相反，它回到了正常水平，我們繼續預期該領域會出現一些週期性，同時我們繼續預期交易銀行業務的其他領域將出現成長。

So, I wouldn't read more than that into it, and we remain very confident that the investment we're putting both in wealth and transaction banking and in the technology supporting our transaction banking activities do remain strategic focus and bearing results as we look into future quarters and years.

因此，我不會對此進行過多的解讀，我們仍然非常有信心，我們在財富和交易銀行業務以及支持我們交易銀行業務的技術方面的投資仍然是戰略重點，並且會取得成果。季度和幾年。

On your third question about cost. So, first, I just want to reiterate, it is a clear priority for us to maintain cost discipline, okay? And we are very confident we will limit cost growth to circa 5%. We will limit cost growth to circa 5% on a target basis.

關於你的第三個問題，關於成本。因此，首先，我只想重申，保持成本紀律顯然是我們的首要任務，好嗎？我們非常有信心將成本成長限制在 5% 左右。我們的目標是將成本成長限制在5%左右。

We're confident about it. And we're actually on track to do so. And the reason why we're kind of on track to do so yet, we showed a 7% quarter 1 growth on a target basis is because of a few idiosyncratic items related to the quarter, which are not repeated in future quarters or some of them will reverse in future quarters. I'll just call the 3 of them out that matter.

我們對此充滿信心。事實上，我們正​​朝著這個方向努力。我們之所以能夠按計劃實現這一目標，我們在第一季實現了 7% 的成長，是因為本季度出現了一些特殊情況，這些情況在未來幾個季度不會重複出現，或者未來幾個季度這種趨勢將會逆轉。我只會叫出這三個人的名字。

First, there was a 2% accrual of the performance-related pay where we decided to phase that accrual more evenly throughout the year than we did last year. This will manifest in a higher performance-related pay accrual in Q1, hence, the 2% contribution towards the 7%, but it will contribute to lower accrual in future quarters because on a full year basis, we are not accruing to a significantly different number than the full year '23 performance-related pay.

首先，績效工資的提列比例為 2%，我們決定在全年中比去年更均勻地分階段提列該比例。這將體現在第一季更高的績效工資應計額，因此，對7% 的貢獻為2%，但這將導致未來幾季的應計額降低，因為在全年基礎上，我們並沒有產生顯著不同的應計額。

Second, there was 1% contribution from HSBC Innovation Banking this quarter because last year's first quarter, we only acquired SBB in the middle of March, which means we practically didn't have it in the first quarter last year, and that's a base effect.

第二，本季匯豐創新銀行貢獻了 1%，因為去年第一季度，我們直到 3 月中旬才收購了 SBB，這意味著去年第一季我們幾乎沒有收購 SBB，這是基數效應。

And then third, we had the one-offs or the expected nonrecurrence of the FDIC special assessment additional charge this quarter as well as the bank of in levy. Bank of Finland levy is a new charge, which used to be an interest expense as an NII and now it's moved to operations expense as in cost. And between the 2 of them, they contributed to 1%.

第三，本季我們一次性或預計不會再次發生 FDIC 特別評估附加費用以及銀行徵稅。芬蘭銀行徵稅是一項新費用，它過去是作為國家保險費的利息支出，現在已轉移到成本中的營運支出。他們兩人加起來的貢獻就達到了 1%。

So, if you adjust for those and you bake them in, we're still and remain confident to meet our 5% cost target on a full year or circa 5% on a full year basis. On your second question, I'll hand over to Noel.

因此，如果您對這些進行調整並將其納入考慮，我們仍然有信心實現全年 5% 的成本目標或全年約 5% 的成本目標。關於你的第二個問題，我將交給諾埃爾。

Katherine, I was in Hong Kong recently and spoke to a number of the market participants there and the developers. And I think firstly, I think the change to the stamp duty arrangements in Hong Kong in March in the budget was very well received, and it's had a positive impact on the activity levels of sales in the Hong Kong market residential sales. It was an extremely significant inflow of activity in the first month. That will be very beneficial to the liquidity positions of many of those developers.

凱瑟琳，我最近在香港，與那裡的許多市場參與者和開發商進行了交談。首先，我認為三月預算中對香港印花稅安排的改變受到了廣泛好評，這對香港市場住宅銷售的活躍程度產生了積極影響。第一個月的活動流入量非常可觀。這對於許多開發商的流動性狀況將非常有利。

We have to wait and see how that stabilizes because undoubtedly, there was an element of catch up in that first month because people were anticipating some change. Therefore, there was low activity in the preceding months. And then we got to see how that stabilizes. But I think that is a very positive move. It will enhance liquidity within the market. It will enhance activity in the mortgage market. But I think it's too early to call a trend at the moment. I think we need to see how Q2 stabilizes following those changes, but a very helpful intervention.

我們必須等待，看看情況如何穩定下來，因為毫無疑問，在第一個月裡，人們期待著一些變化，因此存在一些追趕的因素。因此，前幾個月的活動較少。然後我們看看它是如何穩定下來的。但我認為這是一個非常積極的舉措。這將增強市場流動性。這將增強抵押貸款市場的活躍度。但我認為現在判斷趨勢還為時過早。我認為我們需要觀察這些變化之後 Q2 如何穩定下來，但這是一種非常有益的干預。

Coombs" type="A"

庫姆斯”類型=“A”

Thank you, Andrew. So the UK NIM was up 6 basis points, indeed, essentially benefited from some idiosyncrasies of structural hedges and timing of structural hedge maturities and reinvestments.

謝謝你，安德魯。因此，英國淨利息收益率上升了 6 個基點，實際上，這主要受益於結構性對沖的一些特性以及結構性對沖到期和再投資的時間安排。

So, if you consider broadly flat to be broadly a range of plus or minus 10 basis points. I would say U.K. NIM has been broadly flat for the last couple of quarters. And we foresee it to remain broadly flat in the next quarter. And you will, therefore, add to that broadly flat, some structural hedge due increases, which will drive you within this plus or minus 10 basis point range.

因此，如果您認為大致持平大致是正負 10 個基點的範圍。我想說的是，英國的淨利息收益率 (NIM) 在過去幾季基本上保持穩定。我們預計下個季度它將基本保持平穩。因此，你會在大致平穩的基礎上，加上一些結構性對沖應有的增加，這將使你在正負 10 個基點的範圍內波動。

As regards our loans and deposits have been stable. Again, the U.K. economy has been resilient, we're very optimistic about the outlook for the U.K., specifically around inflation and employment. It remains a very important customer franchise for us. It remains a very important market for us, and we continue gaining market share.

我們的貸款和存款一直很穩定。再次，英國經濟一直具有彈性，我們對英國的前景非常樂觀，特別是在通膨和就業方面。它對我們來說仍然是一個非常重要的客戶特許經營權。對我們來說，它仍然是一個非常重要的市場，而且我們的市場份額正在增加。

I mean, we continue gaining market share in mortgages with a 10% new business market share when our back book now market share has moved or our kind of overall portfolio market shares moved from 7% to 8%. We are a 25% market share in SME lending.

我的意思是，當我們的現有市場份額發生變化或我們的整體投資組合市場份額從 7% 上升到 8% 時，我們將繼續在抵押貸款領域獲得 10% 的新業務市場份額。我們在中小企業貸款市場佔有 25% 的份額。

And obviously, we continue investing in this business. You can look at the ring-fenced bank cost growth and how much we can support cost and investment growth for their infants bank within our overall circa 5% cost growth.

顯然，我們會繼續投資這項業務。您可以看看專項銀行的成本成長情況，以及在總體約 5% 的成本成長範圍內，我們可以為新興銀行的成本和投資成長提供多少支援。

So, all this demonstrates the confidence we have in our business in the U.K., our client activity in the U.K. and the outlook for the U.K. If I move to Argentina, I wish I could give you a trend for Argentina, then the way it works is the numbers balloon with hyperinflation, and then they kind of they shrink with devaluation, and it depends how they manifest themselves over month-over-month.

因此，所有這些都表明了我們對英國業務、英國客戶活動以及英國前景的信心。膨脹，然後隨著貨幣貶值而縮水，這取決於它們逐月如何表現。

Q4 last year has seen hyperinflation to some level, but they have seen a massive devaluation. If you recall, in December, we've seen more than 50% currency devaluation. That's contributed to a disinflation of the amount that Banking Argentina brought to Q4. And then this quarter is exactly the opposite. We've seen 6% devaluation only, but we've seen 54% inflation, and that will just inflate the numbers.

去年第四季出現了一定程度的惡性通貨膨脹，但貨幣卻大幅貶值。如果你還記得的話，12 月份，貨幣貶值了 50% 以上。這導致了阿根廷銀行第四季的貸款金額出現通貨緊縮。而本季的情況則恰恰相反。我們只看到了 6% 的貶值，但我們看到了 54% 的通貨膨脹，這只會使數字更加膨脹。

So, it will be volatile quarter-on-quarter. And our best estimate for the full year is that it may average out to what it averaged out over the last year, which is around EUR 1 billion. Now just looking at the overall Argentina, if you take in the nonbanking NII, you take in the cost base, et cetera, last year's Argentina contribution to our PBT was $0.2 billion. Just to put it in perspective, this is about $0.01 earnings per share or 0.5% dividend per share.

因此，季度環比變化將會比較劇烈。我們對全年的最佳估計是，平均金額可能與去年同期持平，約 10 億歐元。現在只看整個阿根廷，如果考慮到非銀行 NII，考慮到成本基礎等等，去年阿根廷對我們的 PBT 貢獻為 2 億美元。換個角度來說，這大約是每股收益 0.01 美元或每股 0.5% 的股息。

Therefore, I think as you look at the full year '24, that's the quantum that Argentina volatility will create. So, it should not distract you from the way you're forecasting the bank's outcomes.

因此，我認為，放眼 24 年全年，這就是阿根廷波動將造成的量。所以，它不應該分散你對銀行業績預測的注意力。

I guess just to follow up on this. In a scenario whereby you didn't have any devaluation of peso. Inflation was a more moderate normal amount? And what would the NII contribution be under that more kind of BAU scenario a quarter for Argentina?

我猜只是想跟進一下這件事。在比索沒有貶值的情況下。通貨膨脹率是比較溫和的正常水準嗎？那麼在更基本的營運情境下，阿根廷每季的 NII 貢獻將是多少？

Look, again, it's a difficult one to say. But if you just do the arithmetic of our EUR 1 billion expected for the full year, of which already EUR 0.5 billion has manifested in the first quarter. A smooth out outcome would be the other $0.5 billion phased out evenly over 3 quarters. But that's a highly volatile number. So, I wouldn't use it as a – as I said a forecast.

瞧，這又是一個很難說的問題。但如果您算一下我們預計全年的 10 億歐元，其中第一季已經實現了 5 億歐元。一個平穩的結果就是，剩下的 5 億美元將在 3 個季度內平均分批撤出。但這是一個非常不穩定的數字。所以，我不會把它當作──正如我所說的預測。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. That ends today's webinar. You may now disconnect your line, and enjoy the rest of your day.

謝謝各位，女士們、先生們。今天的網路研討會到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路並享受剩餘的一天了。