滙豐控股 (HSBC) 2024 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Welcome, ladies and gentlemen, to the analyst and investor webinar on the 2024 first quarter results for HSBC Holdings plc. For your information, this webinar is being recorded. We are now ready to start the webinar, so I will hand over to Mark Tucker, Group Chairman.

女士們、先生們，歡迎參加關於匯豐控股有限公司 2024 年第一季業績的分析師和投資者網路研討會。為了供您參考，我們正在錄製本次網路研討會。我們現在準備開始網路研討會，所以我將把會議交給集團董事長馬克·塔克 (Mark Tucker)。

Good morning to those of you in London, and good afternoon to those of you in Hong Kong. I'm joining you today from London and have alongside me know enjoy. I'll be making some short opening remarks before handing over to Noel.

倫敦的各位早安，香港的各位下午好。我今天從倫敦加入你們，並與我一起享受。在交給諾埃爾之前，我將做一些簡短的開場白。

As you may have already seen, we have announced today that Noel has informed the Board of his intention to retire from the bank after nearly 5 years in the law. The Board and I would like to pay tribute to Noel's exceptional (inaudible)

正如您可能已經看到的，我們今天宣布，諾埃爾已通知董事會，他打算在從事法律工作近 5 年後從銀行退休。董事會和我謹向諾埃爾的傑出表現表示敬意（聽不清楚）

As Group Chief Executive, he drags both our transformation strategy as well as creating a simpler, more focused business through the disposal of assets in the U.S., France and Canada. This has enabled us to deliver an improved performance, achieving record profits last year and create a platform for future growth and development.

作為集團首席執行官，他不僅推動我們的轉型策略，還透過處置美國、法國和加拿大的資產來創造更簡單、更專注的業務。這使我們能夠取得更好的業績，去年實現了創紀錄的利潤，並為未來的成長和發展創造了一個平台。

Now, you'll hear from him in a second, has decided it's the right time to step back and find a better balance between his personal and business commitments. As you would expect, the Board keeps succession planning under constant review. We already have started a robust and rigorous process to find our next group Chief Executive.

現在，您很快就會收到他的來信，並決定是時候退後一步，在個人和業務承諾之間找到更好的平衡。正如您所期望的那樣，董事會不斷審查繼任計劃。我們已經啟動了一個穩健而嚴格的流程來尋找下一任集團執行長。

This process will look at both internal and external candidates. I'm very pleased that now has agreed to remain in his role while this process takes place, ensuring a smooth and orderly transition. And on a personal note, I'd like to thank Noel for his unwavering commitment and dedication to HSBC, which he joined 37 years ago.

此過程將同時考慮內部和外部候選人。我很高興現在同意在這一過程中繼續擔任他的職務，以確保平穩有序的過渡。就我個人而言，我要感謝諾埃爾 37 年前加入匯豐銀行的堅定承諾和奉獻精神。

Now, it's been a pleasure and privilege to work with and alongside you.

現在，與您並肩工作是我的榮幸。

Thank you, Mark. I'm very grateful for your support, guidance, friendship and partnership. I'm proud of what my HSBC colleagues and I have achieved together over the past 5 years. Over that period, we have hit some significant milestones, record profits last year, the strongest returns in a decade and the highest dividend since 2008.

謝謝你，馬克。我非常感謝您的支持、指導、友誼和夥伴關係。我為我和匯豐銀行同事在過去五年中共同取得的成就感到自豪。在此期間，我們實現了一些重要的里程碑，去年創紀錄的利潤，十年來最強勁的回報以及自 2008 年以來的最高股息。

As Mark mentioned, we have created a more focused business, and I believe we have built a strong platform for the bank's next phase of development and growth. That's why I feel this is the right time to step back to find a better balance between my personal and business commitments with the intention going forward after a break of pursuing a portfolio career.

正如馬克所提到的，我們已經創建了更專注的業務，我相信我們已經為銀行下一階段的發展和成長建立了強大的平台。這就是為什麼我覺得現在是時候退後一步，在我的個人和業務承諾之間找到更好的平衡，並在追求投資組合職業生涯的中斷後繼續前進。

When I reflect back on the last 37 years, I have held intensive leadership roles, particularly since I took over the U.K. Commercial Bank in October of 2008. After 16 years of intensive leadership, I'm ready for a change. But it's also a natural inflection point for the bank as it comes to the end of the current transformation phase. It's an ideal time to bring in new leadership.

回顧過去 37 年，我擔任過密集型領導職務，特別是自 2008 年 10 月接管英國商業銀行以來。但這也是銀行當前轉型階段即將結束時的自然轉折點。現在是引入新領導層的理想時機。

The Board has now started a process to find my successor, and I'm very happy to continue in my role as that process takes place. Rest assured, I will be working hard to ensure a smooth and orderly transition for my successor and to keep the momentum going in this business, as you have seen in Q1. Until then, it's business as usual.

董事會現已開始尋找我的繼任者的流程，我很高興在流程進行時繼續擔任我的職位。請放心，我將努力確保我的繼任者平穩有序地過渡，並保持這項業務的發展勢頭，正如您在第一季所看到的那樣。在那之前，一切照常進行。

So, let's now turn to our Q1 results, which have showed continued progress. We had a good first quarter. Reported profit before tax was $12.7 billion. Excluding notable items, profit before tax was $9 billion. Our return on tangible equity was 16.4%, excluding notable items. I'm also pleased with the further capital distributions of $8.8 billion, which brings the total amount of distributed capital by way of dividends and buybacks over the last 15 months to almost $28 billion.

那麼，現在讓我們來看看第一季的業績，該業績顯示出持續的進步。我們第一季表現不錯。報告的稅前利潤為 127 億美元。不計顯著項目，稅前利潤為 90 億美元。不包括顯著項目，我們的有形股本回報率為 16.4%。我也對 88 億美元的進一步資本分配感到高興，這使得過去 15 個月透過股息和回購方式分配的總資本達到近 280 億美元。

And we are on track to meet all of our previously communicated guidance for 2024. I will now hand over to George to take you through the numbers.

我們預計將實現之前傳達的所有 2024 年指導方針。

Thank you, Noel. I'd like to open by paying tribute to the enormous contribution Noel has made to the bank. I've greatly enjoyed working alongside him. And I know everyone at the bank has appreciated this strong and effective leadership. I'm also grateful for the support he has shown me personally since my appointment as CFO, 15 months ago.

謝謝你，諾埃爾。首先我要向諾埃爾為銀行所做的巨大貢獻表示敬意。我非常喜歡和他一起工作。我知道銀行的每個人都讚賞這種強大而有效的領導力。我還感謝 15 個月前我被任命為財務長以來他個人對我的支持。

The Board has announced the process to find a successor, and I know Non and I will continue to remain very focused on the job at hand until that process has been completed. Turning now to the numbers. Reported profit before tax of $12.7 billion was down $0.3 billion in the first quarter of 2023 on a constant currency basis.

董事會已經宣布了尋找繼任者的流程，我知道非和我將繼續專注於手頭上的工作，直到該流程完成。現在轉向數字。以固定匯率計算，2023 年第一季報告的稅前利潤為 127 億美元，減少了 3 億美元。

Excluding notable items, profit before tax was $9 billion, down $0.4 billion on last year's first quarter. On an annualized basis, we delivered a return on tangible equity of 26.1% or 16.4%, excluding notable items. We completed the $2 billion share buyback announced in February in 2 months. This means that since the end of 2022, we have bought back 6% of our outstanding shares. And the trend of strong shareholder distributions continues this quarter.

排除重要項目，稅前利潤為 90 億美元，比去年第一季減少 4 億美元。以年化計算，我們的有形股本回報率為 26.1% 或 16.4%（不包括值得注意的項目）。我們在兩個月內完成了 2 月宣布的 20 億美元股票回購。這意味著自2022年底以來，我們已經回購了6%的流通股。本季股東分配強勁的趨勢仍在持續。

We have announced, as Noel said, a further $8.8 billion of distributions consisting of first interim dividend for '24 of $0.10 per share. The special dividend of $0.21 per share from the Canada sale proceeds and a new share buyback of up to $3 billion, which we plan to begin right after the AGM and complete within 3 months.

正如諾埃爾所說，我們已經宣布進一步分配 88 億美元，其中包括 24 年首次中期股息每股 0.10 美元。來自加拿大銷售收益的每股 0.21 美元的特別股息以及高達 30 億美元的新股回購，我們計劃在年度股東大會後立即開始，並在 3 個月內完成。

Finally, we are reconfirming all of our 2024 guidance, including a mid-teens return on tangible equity, excluding notable items and our commitment to limit cost growth to around 5% on a target basis.

最後，我們重申 2024 年的所有指導，包括有形資產回報率為 15% 左右（不包括值得注意的項目），以及我們將目標成本增長限制在 5% 左右的承諾。

So, on the next slide, reported profit before tax of $12.7 billion included $4.8 billion gain on the sale of Canada, partly offset by the $1.1 billion impairment on the classification of Argentina as held for sale. Excluding notable items, profit before tax was $9 billion with revenue growth offset primarily by higher costs and ECLs. Revenue of $20.8 billion was up $0.5 billion on the first quarter of last year.

因此，在下一張投影片中，報告的 127 億美元稅前利潤包括出售加拿大的 48 億美元收益，部分被阿根廷分類為持有待售的 11 億美元減損所抵銷。不包括顯著項目，稅前利潤為 90 億美元，收入成長主要被較高的成本和預期信用損失所抵銷。營收為 208 億美元，比去年第一季增加 5 億美元。

Excluding notable items, revenue was $17 billion, which was up $0.5 billion on the first quarter of last year, with growth in banking NII, partly offset by lower fee and other income. Within that, we saw high single-digit growth in multi-jurisdictional revenue in the first quarter, which underlines the value of our global network.

不包括顯著項目，收入為 170 億美元，比去年第一季增加 5 億美元，銀行 NII 的成長部分被費用和其他收入的下降所抵消。其中，我們在第一季的多司法管轄區收入實現了高個位數成長，這凸顯了我們全球網路的價值。

Banking NII of $11.3 billion was up $0.6 billion on the fourth quarter on the reported FX basis, mainly driven by Argentina banking NII as well as the nonrecurrence of the cash flow hedge reclassification in the last quarter. Looking ahead to the rest of the year, a few things to keep in mind.

以報告的匯率計算，第四季銀行業NII為113億美元，成長了6億美元，這主要是由於阿根廷銀行業NII以及上季度現金流對沖重新分類不再發生的推動。展望今年剩餘時間，有幾點需要記住。

First, our Q1 banking NII included $0.3 billion from Canada, which will not repeat in future quarters due to the completion of the sale in March this year. Second, first quarter banking NII also included $0.5 billion from Argentina. This contribution will continue to be highly volatile until the sale is completed, which we expect to be within the next 12 months. Please, therefore, do not extrapolate the $0.5 billion run rate for the remainder of the year.

首先，我們第一季的銀行業 NII 包括來自加拿大的 3 億美元，由於今年 3 月完成了出售，因此在未來幾個季度不會重複這種情況。其次，第一季銀行業NII還包括來自阿根廷的5億美元。在出售完成之前，這項貢獻將繼續大幅波動，我們預計出售將在未來 12 個月內完成。因此，請不要推斷今年剩餘時間 5 億美元的運行率。

Our banking NII guidance assumes a contribution of around $1 billion in full year '24 for Argentina, which is in line with full year 2023. Third, the banking NII outlook has improved in several respects since we announced our full year results in February. The Hong Kong time deposit mix remained stable as a percentage of customer deposits in the quarter and markets are now pricing in more modest cuts to interest rates.

我們的銀行業NII 指引假設阿根廷24 年全年貢獻約10 億美元，這與2023 年全年一致。 。本季度，香港定期存款組合佔客戶存款的比例保持穩定，市場目前已消化了更溫和的降息預期。

However, it is still early in the year, and these things can change. So, we are maintaining our 2024 banking NII guidance of at least $41 billion. Turning to fee and other income. Wholesale transaction banking was down by 9%, primarily due to the normalization of FX revenues compared to a very strong foreign exchange performance in the first quarter of last year, which benefited from higher market volatility.

然而，現在還處於年初，這些事情可能會改變。因此，我們維持 2024 年銀行業 NII 指引至少為 410 億美元。轉向費用和其他收入。批發交易銀行業務下降了 9%，主要是由於外匯收入正常化，而去年第一季外匯表現非常強勁，受益於市場波動性加大。

Fees from Global Payment Solutions had another good quarter, up by 6%. Wealth is another growth area that had a very good quarter, up by 14% on the same period last year as our investment continued to drive improved results. Private Banking was a standout performer, mainly driven by increased customer activity in brokerage and trading in Asia, but growth in wealth has been broad-based.

Global Payment Solutions 的費用在另一個季度表現良好，成長了 6%。財富是另一個季度表現非常好的成長領域，由於我們的投資繼續推動業績改善，與去年同期相比成長了 14%。私人銀行業務表現突出，主要受到亞洲經紀和交易客戶活動增加的推動，但財富增長基礎廣泛。

To illustrate this, we acquired around 135,000 new-to-bank retail wealth customers in Hong Kong in the quarter. Approximately 60% of these were nonresidents attracted by our service and product capabilities in Hong Kong.

為了說明這一點，我們本季在香港獲得了約 135,000 名銀行零售財富新客戶。其中約 60% 是我們在香港的服務和產品能力所吸引的非居民。

Building on previous quarters, we attracted $27 billion of net new invested assets, of which $19 billion were in Asia. And our insurance new business CSM was $0.8 billion, up from $0.4 billion in the first quarter of last year.

在前幾季的基礎上，我們吸引了 270 億美元的淨新投資資產，其中 190 億美元位於亞洲。我們的保險新業務 CSM 為 8 億美元，高於去年第一季的 4 億美元。

On credit, expected credit losses were $0.7 billion in the quarter, equivalent to 30 basis points of average loans. These were primarily Stage 3 charges across retail and wholesale. There was a $54 million charge related to our Mainland China commercial real estate portfolio.

信貸方面，本季預期信貸損失為 7 億美元，相當於平均貸款的 30 個基點。這些主要是零售和批發的第三階段費用。我們的中國大陸商業房地產投資組合產生了 5,400 萬美元的費用。

While challenges remain within the sector, we expect a more benign ECL contribution from it than last year. We remain comfortable with our current level of provisions and continue monitoring developments closely. And we are reconfirming our 2024 ECL guidance of around 40 basis points of average loans, recognizing the overall uncertainty from the flow-through effect of higher rates on the economy.

儘管該行業仍面臨挑戰，但我們預計該行業的預期信用損失貢獻將比去年更加良性。我們對目前的供應水準保持滿意，並繼續密切關注事態發展。我們再次確認 2024 年平均貸款成長約 40 個基點的預期信用損失指引，並承認利率上升對經濟的流動效應帶來的整體不確定性。

Next, we are on track to meet our target of limiting 2024 cost growth to around 5% on a target basis. This quarter's year-on-year cost growth was impacted by 3 items. First, we chose to face the accrual of our performance-related pay more evenly this year than we did last year. This accounted for 2 percentage points of cost growth this quarter. We do not currently expect the total amount of performance-related pay for 2024 to be significantly different to 2023. So, the accrual will be lower over the next 3 quarters than it was in the same period last year.

接下來，我們有望實現將 2024 年成本成長限制在 5% 左右的目標。本季成本年增率受到3項影響。首先，我們選擇今年比去年更均勻地處理與績效相關的薪酬。這佔本季成本成長的 2 個百分點。我們目前預期 2024 年績效相關薪酬總額不會與 2023 年有顯著差異。

Second, HSBC Innovation Banking contributed to 1 percentage point of cost growth this quarter as we only acquired SBB U.K. in the middle of March last year. We intend to provide you with a fuller update on that business at the half year, but I'm pleased that it has good momentum. In the U.K., we onboarded 183 new-to-bank innovation banking client groups in the quarter, the best quarter since acquisition.

其次，匯豐創新銀行為本季的成本成長貢獻了1個百分點，因為我們去年3月中旬才收購了SBB英國公司。我們打算在半年內向您提供有關該業務的更全面的最新信息，但我很高興它有良好的勢頭。在英國，本季我們吸引了 183 個新銀行創新銀行客戶群，這是自收購以來表現最佳的季度。

Finally, another percentage point of the cost growth in the quarter was due to the Bank Finland levy and the incremental FDIC special assessment. We remain committed to cost discipline, and we are reconfirming our guidance of limiting 2024 cost growth to circa 5% on a target basis, inclusive of all the above items.

最後，本季成本成長的另一個百分點是由於芬蘭銀行徵稅和增量 FDIC 特別評估。我們仍然致力於成本控制，並重申我們的指導方針，即在目標基礎上將 2024 年成本增長限制在 5% 左右，其中包括上述所有項目。

On lending and deposits. There was good loan growth in the U.K., the Middle East, Mexico and Asia, excluding Hong Kong. Loan demand in Hong Kong remains subdued, largely due to the high interest rate differential with Mainland China.

關於貸款和存款。英國、中東、墨西哥和亞洲（香港除外）的貸款成長良好。香港的貸款需求仍低迷，主要是因為與中國內地的利差較高。

Overall, we continue to expect mid-single-digit loan growth over the medium to long term, but we expect demand to remain subdued in the near term. Deposits were down 2%. This was due to a range of factors, including seasonality, the switch from time deposits to wealth products in Hong Kong and our deliberate choice to forsake some highly price-sensitive deposits.

總體而言，我們繼續預期中長期貸款將出現中個位數成長，但我們預期短期內需求將保持低迷。存款下降 2%。這是由於一系列因素造成的，包括季節性、香港從定期存款轉向理財產品以及我們刻意放棄一些對價格高度敏感的存款。

Next, our CET 1 ratio was 15.2%, up 40 basis points on the fourth quarter. Organic capital generation and the gain from the sale of the Canadian business enabled us to announce $8.8 billion of capital distributions this quarter. This includes a share buyback of up to $3 billion, which is expected to have an impact of around 40 basis points on our CET1 ratio in the second quarter.

接下來，我們的 CET 1 比率為 15.2%，比第四季上升 40 個基點。有機資本產生和出售加拿大業務的收益使我們能夠在本季宣布 88 億美元的資本分配。其中包括高達 30 億美元的股票回購，預計這將對我們第二季的 CET1 比率產生約 40 個基點的影響。

For modeling purposes, please note that the $5.8 billion of dividends announced today as well as the $5.9 billion in respect of the ordinary dividend announced at the full year results in February will both be reflected in TNAV in the second quarter. At closing of the sale of HSBC Argentina, which is expected within 12 months, we will also recognize $4.9 billion of foreign exchange reserve recycling losses subject to any movement in this reserve up until completion.

出於建模目的，請注意，今天宣布的 58 億美元股息以及 2 月份全年業績中宣布的 59 億美元普通股息都將反映在第二季度的 TNAV 中。預計在 12 個月內完成匯豐阿根廷的出售時，我們還將確認 49 億美元的外匯儲備回收損失，具體取決於該儲備在完成前的任何變動。

These losses have already been accumulated in capital over the previous years. Therefore, recognition in the P&L will have no impact on CET1 nor on TNAV. Finally, looking forward to the rest of the year, our good first quarter puts us on track and we are reconfirming all of our 2024 guidance.

這些損失已在前幾年以資本形式累積。因此，損益表中的確認不會對 CET1 和 TNAV 產生任何影響。最後，展望今年剩餘時間，第一季的良好表現使我們步入正軌，我們正在重申 2024 年的所有指導。

A mid-teens return on tangible equity, excluding notable items, a banking NII of at least $41 billion, ECLs of around 40 basis points cost growth limited to around 5% on a target basis and a 50% dividend payout ratio.

有形股本回報率（不包括顯著項目）為 10 左右左右，銀行業 NII 至少為 410 億美元，預期信用損失約為 40 個基點，目標成本增長限制在 5% 左右，股息支付率為 50%。

And with that, Louis, can we please go to Q&A.

路易斯，我們可以進入問答環節嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today comes from Joseph Dickerson at Jefferies.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Joseph Dickerson。

Congrats, Noel on a great tenure at the bank and well done for the ROE and the capital return. I guess, just in terms of my question, the PD migration in Hong Kong, if you go back to the way you were computing it previously actually looks like it improved quarter-on-quarter and certainly under the new definition, has stabilized.

恭喜諾埃爾在銀行取得了出色的任期，並且在淨資產回報率和資本回報方面表現出色。我想，就我的問題而言，如果你回到之前計算的方式，香港的PD遷移實際上看起來逐季度有所改善，當然在新的定義下，已經穩定下來。

I think it's Slide 17, if I'm not mistaken, in the presentation. Is that a little bit better than where your expectations were a few months ago? I know when I was in Hong Kong recently, it sounded like things were starting to stabilize, but is that better than where you were thinking a few months ago?

如果我沒記錯的話，我認為是簡報中的第 17 張投影片。這比您幾個月前的預期好一點嗎？我知道最近我在香港時，聽起來情況開始穩定下來，但這比你幾個月前的想法更好嗎？

And then secondly, on the buybacks, is the $3 billion number due more to the calendar effect? Or are you looking to kind of boost the run rate there from the $2 billion in the quarter?

其次，在回購方面，30 億美元的數字是否更多地歸因於日曆效應？或者您希望將本季 20 億美元的運行率提高？

Thank you, Joseph. So, first, on the time deposit reclassification, we have actually reclassified some private bank term deposits to time deposits. This is due to the observation of their behavior and the recognition that they better classify this time deposits. This rebases the number. But as you could see from the 2 choices we have, it does not affect the trend.

謝謝你，約瑟夫。所以，第一，關於定期存款的重新分類，我們實際上是把一些私人銀行的定期存款重新分類為定期存款。這是由於對他們行為的觀察以及他們更好地對定期存款進行分類的認識。這會重新調整數字的基礎。但正如您從我們擁有的兩個選擇中看到的，它不會影響趨勢。

So, therefore, the trend that we've seen under both classifications is the same, and we've seen the first quarter stable quarter-on-quarter. It's too early to call it a peak, but we've always expected migration this year to be slower than what we've seen last year. And this just confirms the trend change from what we've seen in full year 2023.

因此，我們在兩個分類下看到的趨勢是相同的，我們看到第一季環比穩定。現在稱其為高峰還為時過早，但我們一直預計今年的遷移速度將比去年慢。這正好證實了我們在 2023 年全年看到的趨勢變化。

As regards to your buyback question, so the short answer is, yes, this is indeed due to calendar effects. We just completed a EUR 2 billion buyback in 2 months. That's about $1 billion a month. That is the fastest run rate we've done in terms of share buybacks ever.

至於你的回購問題，簡短的回答是，是的，這確實是由於日曆效應。我們剛剛在 2 個月內完成了 20 億歐元的回購。這大約是每月 10 億美元。這是我們有史以來股票回購方面最快的運行速度。

We are now announcing a EUR 3 billion buyback, which we intend to to do over the next 3 months, starting after AGM. We will see how the run rate goes, it will remain at the $1 billion run rate. We will see how it will go.

我們現在宣布回購 30 億歐元，我們打算在年度股東大會後開始的未來 3 個月內進行回購。我們將看看運行率如何，它將保持在 10 億美元的運行率。我們將會看看事情會如何發展。

As regards any future amount of buyback or whether we're doing a buyback, one, it remains our intention to return excess capital to our shareholders through a rolling series of share buyback.

至於未來的回購金額或我們是否正在進行回購，我們仍然打算透過一系列滾動股票回購將多餘的資本返還給股東。

And, second, we will decide on a quarter-by-quarter basis based on our capital outlook, the loan growth outlook and other parameters as and when every quarter.

其次，我們將根據每季的資本前景、貸款成長前景和其他參數逐季度做出決定。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question today comes from Raul Sinha at JPMorgan.

（操作員指令）今天我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Raul Sinha。

Maybe 2 from me as well. Just doing, George, on this point on distribution and looking at the sort of moving parts for capital, one of the interesting things in this quarter was the move up in RWAs. I was wondering if you could give us a little bit more color on the growth in RWAs. The EUR 7 billion of increase driven by asset quality trends. I think you're calling out is predominantly in Asia.

也許我也有2個。喬治，就分配問題和資本流動部分而言，本季有趣的事情之一是 RWA 的上升。我想知道您是否能為我們提供有關 RWA 增長的更多資訊。資產品質趨勢推動了 70 億歐元的成長。我認為您主要是在亞洲打電話。

What should we think about the sort of outlook for RWA growth from here even if loan build is muted, just to get a sense of the amount of capital that you will have in content terms for distributions?

即使貸款建設溫和，我們應該如何看待 RWA 成長的前景，只是為了了解您將在分配內容方面擁有的資本金額？

And I guess the second question to Noel, just maybe a question for your broader thoughts, no. The 5 years proceeding have been pretty extraordinary, not just for HSBC, but I guess, for a lot of people given in your markets given the pandemic. But when we look at where HSBC is now, you exited Canada, you announced Argentina. You're in the process of exiting quite a few smaller markets.

我想向諾埃爾提出的第二個問題可能只是針對您更廣泛的想法的問題，不。這五年的歷程非常不尋常，不僅對匯豐銀行來說，而且我想，對你們市場上的許多人來說也是如此。但當我們看看匯豐銀行現在的處境時，你退出了加拿大，宣布了阿根廷。您正在退出一些較小的市場。

Return on tangible equity is already in the mid-teens. You're buying back stock at $3 billion a quarter, you've got a special dividend as well. I guess what I'm really interested in is from here onwards, what do you think is left to do for the group to kind of progress?

有形股本回報率已達到十幾歲左右。你每季以 30 億美元的價格回購股票，你還可以獲得特別股利。我想我真正感興趣的是從現在開始，你認為團隊還需要做些什麼才能進步？

Thank you, Raul. I'll start with your first question first. So, on RWA outlook. So the RWA growth, we called on a quarter-on-quarter basis, $24 billion. First, about 40% of it related to lending and other asset growth. And as you can see from our lending book, we've grown our lending book by EUR 5 billion. There's a number of areas of growth that contributed to around 40% of it, $9 billion.

謝謝你，勞爾。我先從你的第一個問題開始。那麼，關於 RWA 的前景。因此，我們稱 RWA 環比成長為 240 億美元。首先，其中約 40% 與貸款和其他資產成長有關。正如您從我們的貸款帳簿中看到的那樣，我們的貸款帳簿增加了 50 億歐元。多個領域的成長貢獻了約 40%，即 90 億美元。

Then we've had a $5 billion market tristRWA growth. This is due to a pickup in NSS activity against a subdued 4Q, and it's more in line with their activity levels in the first 3 quarters of the year, if you want. And this is the normalization of the market's activity.

然後我們的市場 tristRWA 成長了 50 億美元。這是由於 NSS 活動在第四季度低迷的情況下有所回升，如果你願意的話，這更符合今年前 3 季的活動水平。這就是市場活動的正常化。

And then there is $7 billion, which we classified broadly as asset quality. Now, asset quality, first, it is a continuous exercise. We do this portfolio monitoring review on a regular basis. We have recognized across a number of geographies and a number of sectors, certain names, which we've decided to downgrade on the basis that the interest rate pressure on their cash flows has been more severe.

然後是 70 億美元，我們將其大致歸類為資產品質。現在，資產質量，首先是一個持續的鍛鍊。我們定期進行投資組合監控審查。我們已經認識到多個地區、多個行業和某些名稱，我們決定下調這些名稱的評級，因為它們的現金流面臨的利率壓力更加嚴重。

You will not see an equivalent of that downgrade in ECL. And that's mainly because for many of these customers, their balance sheet remains strong. So, we're comfortable with their balance sheet and therefore, there is no ECL implication from this downgrade. But just closing the loop, this RWA downgrade, you will see some of it materialize in our Stage 3 loans, where we increased our Stage 3 loans by about $2 billion, and that's exactly the mapping of some of this asset quality.

您不會在 ECL 中看到與降級相同的內容。這主要是因為對許多這樣的客戶來說，他們的資產負債表仍然強勁。因此，我們對他們的資產負債表感到滿意，因此此次降級不會產生預期信用損失。但只要結束這個循環，RWA 降級，你就會看到其中一些在我們的第三階段貸款中實現，我們將第三階段貸款增加了約 20 億美元，而這正是某些資產品質的映射。

With regards to how we look forward, we are very comfortable where we are today. Our credit metrics remain solid. As I say, the balance sheet of our customers remains strong for a number of them for at least the exposure that is collateralized. We're very comfortable with the level of collateralization and the LTV. And therefore, we do not foresee at this stage today any additional action we should be taking.

就我們的未來而言，我們對今天的處境感到非常滿意。我們的信用指標仍然穩健。正如我所說，我們的許多客戶的資產負債表仍然強勁，至少在抵押風險方面是如此。我們對抵押水平和生命週期價值非常滿意。因此，我們預期現階段我們不應該採取任何額外行動。

We will obviously monitor the book on a regular basis as we always do. Noel?

顯然，我們將像往常一樣定期監控這本書。諾埃爾？

Thank you. It has certainly been an extraordinary 5 years, I should say, not just for HSBC, but for the world. And I'm really pleased and grateful I want to pay tribute to the team for the way they've collectively navigated that. And during that whole process, the external environment executed on a complex but absolutely critical transformation plan over the past 5 years.

謝謝。我應該說，這無疑是非凡的五年，不僅對匯豐銀行，而且對全世界來說。我真的很高興也很感激，我想向團隊的集體應對方式致敬。而在整個過程中，外在環境在過去的5年裡執行了一個複雜但絕對關鍵的轉型計畫。

And the outcome of that hard work is evident in the financial performance last year and the financial performance in Q1. I also want to say thanks to Mark, with such volatility in an external environment. Any CEO needs the support of their chair, their advice, their guidance, and I've had that all the way through and have had the support from the Board all the way through in navigating what has been a very complex external environment.

這種努力的成果在去年的財務表現和第一季的財務表現中得到了明顯體現。我還要感謝馬克，外部環境如此波動。任何執行長都需要主席的支持、建議和指導，在應對非常複雜的外部環境時，我一直得到這些支持，也得到董事會的支持。

But the team, the Board, Mark, collectively, we've done a good job of navigating it. Now, if I look forward, I'm not going to give to do list to my successor because that is not the fair thing to do to anyone. But I will give you some thoughts about what we as a team are very much focused on. And I'm focused on for as long as I'm still CEO, and that is continuing the momentum.

但團隊、董事會、馬克，總的來說，我們在應對這個問題方面做得很好。現在，如果我展望未來，我不會向我的繼任者列出待辦事項清單，因為這對任何人來說都不公平。但我會給你們一些關於我們作為一個團隊非常關注的事情的想法。只要我仍然擔任首席執行官，我就會專注於這一點，並且這將繼續保持這一勢頭。

You don't work as hard as we worked for the past 5 years and then take the eye off the ball at this moment in time. So, I'm very focused on a smooth, orderly transition. I'm very focused on continued execution of the strategy. I want to clarify our thinking on one element of the strategy. We have exited a lot of businesses, a lot of RWAs over the past 5 years.

你不會像我們過去五年那樣努力工作，然後在這個時刻把注意力從球上移開。因此，我非常注重平穩、有序的過渡。我非常注重戰略的持續執行。我想澄清我們對該戰略的一個要素的想法。在過去 5 年裡，我們退出了很多業務、很多 RWA。

The one thing we've protected whilst doing that is the international core of HSBC. The countries we remain in, the businesses we remain in are fundamentally now focused on the international nature and essence of HSBC, and we will continue to do that.

我們在這樣做時保護的一件事是匯豐銀行的國際核心。我們留下的國家、我們留下的業務現在基本上都集中在匯豐銀行的國際性和本質上，我們將繼續這樣做。

Our key requirement is to continue to deliver good returns that are sustainable and repeatable whilst also taking advantage of the growth opportunities as they emerge in a world that becomes more stable and there are inherent in our customer franchise.

我們的關鍵要求是繼續提供可持續和可重複的良好回報，同時利用在一個變得更加穩定的世界中出現的成長機會，並且這是我們客戶特許經營所固有的。

Therefore, we're very focused on continuing the development of wealth, our transaction banking capabilities, our global wholesale banking capabilities and then being ready for when corporate loan demand picks up, we can take advantage of that to couple good returns with sustainable growth.

因此，我們非常專注於繼續發展財富、我們的交易銀行能力、我們的全球批發銀行能力，然後為企業貸款需求回升做好準備，我們可以利用這一點將良好的回報與永續成長結合起來。

And I think you've seen evidence of that in these results. Hong Kong is subdued at the moment, but we understand why with the rate differential in China. But if you look at the rest of the world, as George said, there's balance sheet growth in Wholesale Banking, in the rest of Asia, in the Middle East, in U.K., in Europe. We're seeing good growth elsewhere.

我認為您已經在這些結果中看到了這一點的證據。香港目前表現疲軟，但我們理解中國的利率差異的原因。但如果你看看世界其他地區，正如喬治所說，批發銀行業、亞洲其他地區、中東、英國和歐洲的資產負債表都在成長。我們在其他地方看到了良好的成長。

So, it's about focus, momentum, continuing to couple good returns with good growth.

因此，關鍵在於專注、動力，以及繼續將良好的回報與良好的成長相結合。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question today comes from Jeremy Hugh at CICC.

（操作員指示）今天我們的下一個問題來自中金公司的 Jeremy Hugh。

So, the first question is on deposits. We're glad to see that cat migration in Hong Kong is slowing down, but if not stabilized at this level. But on the other hand, I think the bank has seen some deposit outflow in Q1, while your Hong Kong local peers still see some deposit growth. So, I'm wondering if there is a strategic trade-off between the deposit growth and the cost for you at this stage? And how do you see that trend in the rest of the year?

所以，第一個問題是關於存款。我們很高興看到香港的貓遷徙正在放緩，但即使沒有穩定在這個水平。但另一方面，我認為該銀行在第一季出現了一些存款流出，而香港本地同業仍然看到了一些存款成長。那麼，我想知道現階段您在存款成長和成本之間是否存在策略性權衡？您如何看待今年剩餘時間的趨勢？

The second question is on the structural hedge. So, I'm wondering if this quarter, you could share with us some breakdown of our structural hedge and how much did we benefit from the reinvestment of the structural hedge? And if there is any run rate that we can refer to?

第二個問題是結構性避險。所以，我想知道這個季度，您是否可以與我們分享一些結構性對沖的細目，以及我們從結構性對沖的再投資中受益了多少？有沒有運行率可以參考？

Thank you, Jeremy. So, on your first question about deposits in Hong Kong. So, if you remember at Q4, our deposits in Hong Kong have increased by about $14 billion. What we've seen in Q1 this year is a decrease of about $16 billion. Therefore, you can see seasonality playing across the 2 quarters, and therefore, is broadly stable across the 2 quarters.

謝謝你，傑瑞米。那麼，關於你關於香港存款的第一個問題。因此，如果你還記得第四季度，我們在香港的存款增加了約 140 億美元。今年第一季我們看到減少了約 160 億美元。因此，您可以看到季節性在兩個季度中發揮作用，因此在這兩個季度中大致穩定。

What happened though is, some of these deposit inflows in Q4 related to some deposit campaigns we were driving to drive some of our deposits into wealth. And when you look at Q1, while you see the deposit outflows, you also can see that $19 billion of our net new invested assets were in Asia.

但實際情況是，第四季度的一些存款流入與我們推動的一些存款活動有關，這些活動旨在將部分存款轉化為財富。當你看第一季時，你會看到存款流出，你還可以看到我們的淨新投資資產中有 190 億美元位於亞洲。

Therefore, a chunk of these outflows has manifested or translated into wealth inflows for us, which was the purpose of the campaign in Q4 and explains if you want the seasonality of this deposit.

因此，這些資金流出中的很大一部分已經體現或轉化為我們的財富流入，這是第四季度活動的目的，並解釋了您是否想要這筆存款的季節性。

Second, look, we have a powerful deposit franchise. We have a very cherished and viable franchise. We continue globally being a very attractive deposit proposition for both our retail and wholesale customers. We cherish this. We continue investing in our deposit capabilities. And throughout the last 6 quarters, you've seen how our deposit base has been very stable with our deposit costs being relatively benign compared to some of our peers. Therefore, I won't comment on month-to-month movements between ourselves and our peers.

其次，看，我們擁有強大的存款專營權。我們擁有非常珍貴且可行的特許經營權。我們持續在全球範圍內為零售和批發客戶提供極具吸引力的存款方案。我們珍惜這一點。我們繼續投資我們的存款能力。在過去的 6 個季度中，您已經看到我們的存款基礎非常穩定，與一些同業相比，我們的存款成本相對較低。因此，我不會評論我們和同行之間的每月變動。

If I move on to your second question about the structural hedge. So, first, you would have noticed that we increased this quarter, the structural hedge by about $10 billion, taking it to $487 million, with the average weighted average life broadly unchanged at just shy of 3 years.

如果我繼續回答你關於結構性對沖的第二個問題。因此，首先，您可能會注意到，本季我們將結構性對沖增加了約 100 億美元，達到 4.87 億美元，平均加權平均壽命基本上保持不變，僅接近 3 年。

Second, we commit at this stage to continue our structural hedging activity. Obviously, this will remain subject to market conditions, but we will continue the trend that we put in Q1 based on current market outlook. This activity of additional structural hedging will contribute to a mild headwind toward banking NII. And this is due to the fact that the rate curves are inverted as you know, and you can do the math.

其次，我們現階段承諾繼續進行結構性避險活動。顯然，這仍將取決於市場狀況，但我們將根據當前的市場前景繼續第一季的趨勢。這種額外的結構性對沖活動將為銀行業NII帶來溫和的阻力。這是因為，如您所知，利率曲線是倒轉的，您可以進行數學計算。

But equally, we also are reinvesting maturing structural hedges at higher rates. And this reinvestment of maturing of structural hedges at higher rates is a tailwind into banking NII. Between the 2 of those effects, the structural hedge activity for the full year 2024 would remain a net tailwind to our banking NII. We have not yet quantified to the market that tailwind.

但同樣，我們也以更高的利率對成熟的結構性避險進行再投資。這種以更高利率到期的結構性對沖再投資是銀行業NII的順風車。在這兩種影響之間，2024 年全年的結構性對沖活動仍將是我們銀行業 NII 的淨推動力。我們尚未對市場的這種順風進行量化。

We're looking at enhancing our disclosure in this space. But that tailwind has been factored into our guidance of at least $41 billion bank NII and obviously, factored into our return on tangible equity mid-teens guidance.

我們正在考慮加強我們在這一領域的披露。但這種順風已經被納入我們對至少 410 億美元銀行 NII 的指導中，顯然，也被納入我們對有形股本回報率中十幾歲的指導中。

The next question today comes from Jason Napier at UBS.

今天的下一個問題來自瑞銀 (UBS) 的傑森·納皮爾 (Jason Napier)。

First of all, just to echo the best wishes, Noel, for the next chapter of your career and private life, I think, a well-earned rebalancing.

首先，只是為了回應諾埃爾對你職業生涯和私人生活的新篇章的最美好的祝愿，我認為這是當之無愧的重新平衡。

George, I just wondered whether you talk a little bit within the context of higher for longer, you've referenced subdued loan demand in Hong Kong due to the differentials in interest rates. And I just wonder whether one of your peers has spoken at some length about looking forward to a change in asset mix as loan demand comes back as a way to defend margins and revenue.

喬治，我只是想知道您是否在長期較高的背景下談論一點，您提到了由於利率差異而導致香港的貸款需求低迷。我只是想知道，你們的一位同行是否曾詳細地談到，隨著貸款需求的回升，期待資產組合發生變化，以此作為捍衛利潤和收入的一種方式。

So, I wonder whether you might talk a little bit about whether that's a material part of the plan? And sort of what do you think that means for revenue sort of evolution in the next few quarters? I think I certainly was somewhat surprised that we didn't see an upgrade to banking NII guidance this quarter. I know you don't rebalance every quarter, but I just wonder whether you might talk to the role that Higher for longer has on asset mix and then on credit demand.

所以，我想知道你是否可以談談這是否是該計劃的重要組成部分？您認為這對未來幾季的收入變化意味著什麼？我想我確實對本季銀行 NII 指引沒有升級感到有些驚訝。我知道您不會每個季度都進行重新平衡，但我只是想知道您是否可以談談較高的長期對資產組合和信貸需求的作用。

And then secondly, wealth was phenomenal in Q1. I know there's a part of the business that's quite closely linked to what goes on with the Hang Seng Index, which is now 20% in in a short space of time. But I just wonder whether you could talk to the sustainability of those run rates. Is that the strategy delivering the sort of net new money flows? Or is there an element of sort of market volume there that we should be a little bit careful about?

其次，第一季的財富是驚人的。我知道該業務的一部分與恆生指數的走勢密切相關，恆生指數現在在短時間內上漲了 20%。但我只是想知道你是否可以談談這些運行率的可持續性。這是帶來淨新資金流的策略嗎？或者是否存在某種我們應該謹慎對待的市場量因素？

Thank you, Jason. So, first on Banking NII, we recognize there are kind of a couple of encouraging developments. The first one is the higher for longer on the rate side that would look like more favorable than when we discussed last in February. And, the second one we just touched on, which is the balance sheet mix, specifically in Hong Kong, where we've seen term deposits remain stable for this quarter.

謝謝你，傑森。因此，首先在銀行業國家資訊基礎設施方面，我們認識到有一些令人鼓舞的進展。第一個是利率方面較長時間的較高利率，這看起來比我們上次在二月討論時更有利。我們剛剛談到的第二個問題是資產負債表組合，特別是在香港，我們看到本季的定期存款保持穩定。

So, we recognize these tailwinds to our banking NII, but we also recognize quite early in the year, and these factors can still change. So this is why we didn't change our guidance. And as you said, Jason, I don't think you should expect us to update our guidance every quarter. We would reconsider this every quarter. But for this quarter, we're just sticking with our at least $41 billion.

因此，我們認識到這些對銀行業國家資訊基礎設施有利的因素，但我們也在今年稍早認識到，這些因素仍然可能發生變化。這就是我們沒有改變指導的原因。正如您所說，傑森，我認為您不應該期望我們每個季度都會更新我們的指導。我們每季都會重新考慮這一點。但就本季而言，我們只是堅持至少 410 億美元。

In terms of the wealth performance, so recognize mid-teens percentage growth in wealth, 34% for our private bank. I would say a couple of things. The first one is, yes, this is an area that we've already said it's a focused strategic area. We are investing in this area. Big part of our investments goes towards this area, and we're very pleased to see the results of our investments generate revenue fairly quickly.

就財富表現而言，我們私人銀行的財富成長率為 15%，即 34%。我想說幾件事。第一個是，是的，這是一個我們已經說過的重點策略領域。我們正在這個領域進行投資。我們的大部分投資都投向了這個領域，我們很高興看到我們的投資結果相當快速地產生了收入。

You can see that through net new invested assets growth. You can see that through our CSM, new business CSM growth in insurance as well as in the actual revenue performance. This being said, I would just caution you not to annualize the numbers you're seeing because Q1 2023 had somewhat subdued January in it when China and Hong Kong were still closed.

您可以透過新投資資產淨成長來看到這一點。透過我們的CSM大家可以看到，新業務CSM在保險方面的成長以及在實際收入方面的表現。話雖這麼說，我只是提醒您不要將您看到的數字按年化，因為 2023 年第一季的 1 月份表現有些疲軟，當時中國大陸和香港仍處於休市狀態。

So, therefore, you've seen more pickup in activity in the Q1 '23 at the back end of it, whereas we had a full proper Q1 '24. So, there is an element of not annualizing the performance, but expecting that performance to continue growing.

因此，您會在 23 年第一季的後端看到更多的活動回升，而我們在 24 年第一季的表現則完全正常。因此，有一個因素不是對業績進行年度化，而是期望業績繼續成長。

I just realized I didn't touch on your asset mix question of the first question. Look, we do not foresee a material change in our asset mix. We had seen for the last few quarters of last year, the main growth take place in mortgages and recognizing mortgages have seen very competitive levels both in the U.K. and Hong Kong, and the margins have been quite tight.

我剛剛意識到我沒有觸及第一個問題的資產組合問題。看，我們預計我們的資產組合不會發生重大變化。我們在去年的最後幾季看到，主要成長發生在抵押貸款領域，並且認識到英國和香港的抵押貸款已經達到了非常有競爭力的水平，而且利潤率相當緊張。

As we start seeing pickup in wholesale demand, as we start peeing pickup in unsecured lending, we are more hopeful that those will drive higher margins than if you want what we see in mortgages. And our numbers in Q1 did show that this pickup definitely is there in areas of Asia, Southeast Asia, India, the Middle East, the U.K., et cetera. And the next in line for that pickup will be Hong Kong, which we expect at some stage later in the year as we see dollar rates ease.

當我們開始看到批發需求的回升，當我們開始無擔保貸款的回升時，我們更希望這些將帶來更高的利潤，而不是如果你想要我們在抵押貸款中看到的那樣。我們第一季的數據確實表明，亞洲、東南亞、印度、中東、英國等地區肯定存在這種回升。下一個回升的地區將是香港，我們預計，隨著美元利率的放緩，香港將在今年稍後出現。

(Operator Instructions) Our next question comes from Perlie Mong from KBW.

（操作員說明）我們的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Perlie Mong。

Can I just dig a little bit further into Jason's question just now on higher for longer. So, I know you probably don't like to comment on longer-term NII. But I guess in a higher for longer rate environment, which is how are you thinking about the trajectory going from here because it sounds to me that deposit migration is probably, well, stabilized a lot.

我可以更深入研究傑森剛才提出的問題嗎？所以，我知道您可能不喜歡對長期 NII 發表評論。但我想在一個長期利率較高的環境中，這就是你如何思考從這裡開始的軌跡，因為在我看來，存款遷移可能已經穩定了很多。

And I would have thought any longer pricing that hasn't already come through will come through in the next few months. And I guess in a higher for longer rate environment, you can probably build more hedges at better rates as well, et cetera. And there's obviously a tailwind as you mentioned in this year already. So, how does that inform your thinking on your medium-term RoTE? So I guess that's the first question.

我以為尚未實現的任何更長的定價都將在接下來的幾個月內實現。我猜想，在長期利率較高的環境中，您可能也可以以更好的利率建立更多的對沖，等等。正如您今年已經提到的，顯然存在順風。那麼，這對您對中期 RoTE 的思考有什麼影響呢？所以我想這是第一個問題。

And the second question, again, on broader activity level, maybe not just on credit. So, again, I guess just noting your point that Hong Kong might be a mix in line to pick up. But I guess, overall, the emerging market is probably not benefiting in terms of activity level and in terms of capital inflows from the higher U.S. rates.

第二個問題同樣在更廣泛的活動層面上，也許不只是信貸方面。因此，我想再次指出您的觀點，即香港可能是一個等待復甦的混合體。但我認為，整體而言，新興市場在活動水準和資本流入方面可能並未從美國利率上升中受益。

So, how does that impact, I guess, trading activities and capital flows, et cetera, just how are you thinking about the flip side of hirer longer?

那麼，我猜這對交易活動和資本流動等有何影響，您如何看待租用者的另一面？

Thank you, Perlie. So first, look, yes, we recognize higher for longer is definitely a tailwind or a reduction of a headwind we've forecast in our banking NII. And as I said, there has been a number of manifestation of tailwinds now compared to when we last spoke in February.

謝謝你，珀利。首先，是的，我們認識到，長期走高肯定是有利因素，或者是我們在銀行業國家資訊基礎設施中預測的不利因素的減少。正如我所說，與我們上次在二月講話時相比，現在出現了許多順風順水的現象。

But equally, it is early in the year. And as you've seen, these things do change. And, therefore, want to beccon in some sense of uncertainty due to the changing parameters. We will update some longer than what we're updating but not at this quarter, barely. So, do expect us coming in the future quarters and give you further outlook for the future.

但同樣，現在還是年初。正如您所看到的，這些事情確實發生了變化。因此，希望因參數變化而帶來某種不確定性。我們將更新一些比我們正在更新的時間更長的內容，但不會在本季度，幾乎不會。因此，請期待我們在未來幾季的到來，並為您提供對未來的進一步展望。

I would say the one parameter, just to keep in mind, as you start planning for '25 is take Argentina out because, obviously, subject to the sale completing, which we expect to complete in the next 12 months, that potential $1 billion contribution from Argentina will go away from our banking NII. That's the most kind of predictable parameter where we stand today as you look into 2025.

我想說的一個參數是，請記住，當你開始計劃 25 年時，就是把阿根廷隊淘汰出局，因為顯然，根據我們預計在未來 12 個月內完成的出售，潛在的 10 億美元貢獻來自阿根廷的NII 將從我們的銀行業務中消失。這是我們今天展望 2025 年時最可預測的參數。

In terms of the broader activity level, first, if you look at the wealth performance, it just demonstrates how wealth remains very resilient. And that's particularly true in Hong Kong, but very much so across Asia. Second, when you look at our transaction banking activities, apart from foreign exchange, which has an idiosyncrasy related to Q1 '23 with a very high volatility has performed across the various areas of its fee earning activities.

就更廣泛的活動水平而言，首先，如果你看看財富表現，它只是表明財富如何保持非常有彈性。在香港尤其如此，但在整個亞洲更是如此。其次，當你觀察我們的交易銀行活動時，除了外匯之外，外匯具有與 23 年第一季相關的特殊性，即在其收費活動的各個領域都表現出非常高的波動性。

And then our activity is very much benefiting from cross-border trends. If you look at some of the investments or foreign direct investments or trade flows taking place intra region in Asia between China and ASEAN between India and ASEAN, between India and the west, et cetera, all of those trends are growing. I mean the numbers are staggering in some cases. And these are the activities that our business is operating on.

我們的活動非常受益於跨境趨勢。如果你看看亞洲區域內中國和東協、印度和東協、印度和西方國家之間發生的一些投資、外國直接投資或貿易流動，所有這些趨勢都在成長。我的意思是，在某些情況下，數字是驚人的。這些就是我們的業務正在進行的活動。

So, therefore, while recognizing that there will be some interest rate challenges for borrowers at these levels, there is still a very strong underlying network activity, which is benefiting our overall businesses, particularly in wholesale transaction banking, anyway.

因此，儘管認識到借款人在這些水平上將面臨一些利率挑戰，但仍然存在非常強大的基礎網路活動，無論如何，這有利於我們的整體業務，特別是批發交易銀行業務。

On that, it's just I've also noticed that China exports volumes have been going up, but value has been coming down. And that is in part because of various things. FX is be part of it but also government subsidies. How does that affect your, I guess, your profitability in the region, volumes going up, the value is going down?

就此而言，我也注意到中國的出口量一直在上升，但價值一直在下降。這部分是由於各種原因造成的。外匯是其中的一部分，也是政府補貼的一部分。我想，這對您在該地區的獲利能力、銷量上升、價值下降有何影響？

Perlie, if I can just give you an indication. What we are seeing at the moment is a very strong level of activity of China corporates expanding across the rest of Asia.

Perlie，如果我能給你一個指示的話。目前我們看到中國企業在亞洲其他地區擴張的活動非常活躍。

So, our outbound activity from Mainland China to the rest of the world is seeing a significant increase in activity over the past 12 months. We've seen that trend continue in the first quarter of this year. So, a lot of people talk about inward investment into China slowing down. But what I would say is outward investment from China to the rest of the world is actually picking up at quite a pace a very significant pace.

因此，我們從中國大陸到世界其他地區的出境活動在過去 12 個月中顯著增加。我們看到這種趨勢在今年第一季仍在繼續。因此，很多人都在談論中國的外來投資放緩。但我想說的是，中國對世界其他地區的對外投資實際上正在以相當大的速度、非常顯著的速度成長。

We're very well placed to capture that outflow, and we are capturing that outflow. And our business in Mainland China performed well last year. It's performing well again in the first quarter of this year and its outbound activity is performing extremely well. So, we'll give more updates on that at the half year, but we are capturing that. And that is why actually I think the rest of Asia is performing well on balance sheet because a lot of it is being fed by good intra-Asia activity and outbound from Mainland China.

我們非常有能力捕捉這種資金外流，而且我們正在捕捉這種資金外流。去年我們在中國大陸的業務表現也不錯。今年第一季再次表現出色，出境活動也表現得非常好。因此，我們將在半年中提供更多相關更新，但我們正在捕捉這一點。這就是為什麼我認為亞洲其他地區的資產負債表表現良好，因為其中很大一部分是由良好的亞洲內部活動和中國大陸的對外投資所推動的。

Next question today comes from Katherine Lai at JPMorgan.

今天的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Katherine Lai。

I have 3 questions, 3 small questions, actually. The first one is on noninterest income. I look at the breakdown of noninterest income. It seems like wealth is doing quite well. But on Transaction Banking, there is some weakness, I think it's down 9% Y-o-Y. Can we know what is the reason? And how should we triangulate this to the full year? What are the drivers to that? So this is the first one.

我有 3 個問題，實際上是 3 個小問題。第一個是非利息收入。我查看了非利息收入的細目。看來財富運作得很好。但在交易銀行業務方面，存在一些弱點，我認為比去年同期下降了 9%。我們能知道是什麼原因嗎？我們應該如何將其與全年進行三角測量？其驅動因素為何？這是第一個。

The second one is on Hong Kong. With Hong Kong relaxing LTV ratios, I think basically, not only they would be they relax the the purchase requirements and the stability requirements on residential properties. So, I think that there is a significant jump in transaction. So, I was thinking that this should be positive to mortgage at least, and then we are a big mortgage providers in Hong Kong.

第二個是關於香港的。隨著香港放寬LTV比率，我認為基本上不僅會放寬住宅物業的購買要求和穩定性要求。因此，我認為交易量出現了大幅成長。所以，我認為這至少對抵押貸款應該是有利的，然後我們是香港的大型抵押貸款提供者。

So, will that have any impact on our outlook in terms of growth, particularly related to Hong Kong? Second one. And then the last one, I think, is on cost. If I look at the first quarter, I think cost is up 8%, including levy. How should I look at this? And then are we on track to the 5% cost growth this year?

那麼，這會對我們的成長前景產生任何影響，特別是與香港相關的成長前景嗎？第二個。我認為最後一個是成本。如果我看一下第一季度，我認為成本上漲了 8%，其中包括徵稅。我該如何看待這個問題？那麼今年我們的成本成長是否有望達到 5%？

Thank you, Katherine. I'll take question 1 and 3, and I'll hand over to Noel to address your second question about the outlook for Hong Kong. So, first on non-NII.

謝謝你，凱瑟琳。我將回答問題1和問題3，然後請Noel回答你關於香港前景的第二個問題。所以，首先是非 NII。

Wealth has performed well. Transaction banking weakness is specifically due to foreign exchange. That's driving the whole weakness. And the reason, as I called it out earlier, the reason is that foreign exchange had a record strong quarter 1 '23 on the back of heightened market anxiety and volatility back then due to the banking crisis.

財運方面表現良好。交易銀行業務的疲軟主要是由外匯造成的。這就是整個弱點的根源。正如我之前指出的，原因在於，由於銀行危機導致市場焦慮和波動加劇，外匯交易在 2023 年 1 季創下了創紀錄的強勁表現。

So, therefore, we're doing a comparison to a record quarter, and it will show that drop. But if you look at the number itself, and the revenue itself for foreign exchange, it is back to normalized levels. So, there is nothing to worry about here. It's on the contrary back to normalized levels, and we continue to expect some cyclicality in that space, while we continue expecting growth in the other areas of transaction banking.

因此，我們正在與創紀錄的季度進行比較，它將顯示出下降的情況。但如果你看看這個數字本身，以及外匯收入本身，你會發現它又回到正常水平了。所以，這裡沒有什麼好擔心的。相反，它回到了正常化水平，我們繼續預期該領域會出現一定的周期性，同時我們繼續預期交易銀行其他領域的成長。

So, I wouldn't read more than that into it, and we remain very confident that the investment we're putting both in wealth and transaction banking and in the technology supporting our transaction banking activities do remain strategic focus and bearing results as we look into future quarters and years.

因此，我不會對此進行更多解讀，而且我們仍然非常有信心，我們在財富和交易銀行業務以及支持我們的交易銀行活動的技術方面的投資確實仍然是戰略重點，並且正如我們所看到的那樣，取得了成果到未來的季度和年份。

On your third question about cost. So, first, I just want to reiterate, it is a clear priority for us to maintain cost discipline, okay? And we are very confident we will limit cost growth to circa 5%. We will limit cost growth to circa 5% on a target basis.

關於你的第三個問題，關於成本。因此，首先，我想重申，維持成本紀律是我們的首要任務，好嗎？我們非常有信心將成本成長限制在 5% 左右。我們將目標成本成長限制在 5% 左右。

We're confident about it. And we're actually on track to do so. And the reason why we're kind of on track to do so yet, we showed a 7% quarter 1 growth on a target basis is because of a few idiosyncratic items related to the quarter, which are not repeated in future quarters or some of them will reverse in future quarters. I'll just call the 3 of them out that matter.

我們對此充滿信心。我們實際上正在這樣做。我們之所以能夠做到這一點，是因為我們在第一季的目標基礎上實現了7% 的成長，這是因為與該季度相關的一些特殊項目，這些項目在未來幾個季度或某些季度中不會重複。我就把他們三個叫出來吧。

First, there was a 2% accrual of the performance-related pay where we decided to phase that accrual more evenly throughout the year than we did last year. This will manifest in a higher performance-related pay accrual in Q1, hence, the 2% contribution towards the 7%, but it will contribute to lower accrual in future quarters because on a full year basis, we are not accruing to a significantly different number than the full year '23 performance-related pay.

首先，與績效相關的薪酬以 2% 計提，我們決定比去年更均勻地在全年分階段提列。這將體現在第一季與績效相關的應計工資更高，因此，7% 的貢獻為2%，但這將導致未來幾季的應計工資降低，因為在全年的基礎上，我們不會產生顯著不同的應計薪資。

Second, there was 1% contribution from HSBC Innovation Banking this quarter because last year's first quarter, we only acquired SBB in the middle of March, which means we practically didn't have it in the first quarter last year, and that's a base effect.

其次，匯豐創新銀行本季有1%的貢獻，因為去年第一季我們是在3月中旬才收購了SBB，這意味著我們去年第一季幾乎沒有它，這是基數效應。

And then third, we had the one-offs or the expected nonrecurrence of the FDIC special assessment additional charge this quarter as well as the bank of in levy. Bank of Finland levy is a new charge, which used to be an interest expense as an NII and now it's moved to operations expense as in cost. And between the 2 of them, they contributed to 1%.

第三，本季 FDIC 特別評估附加費用以及銀行徵費是一次性的或預期不會再次發生的。芬蘭銀行徵稅是一項新費用，以前是作為國家資訊基礎設施的利息費用，現在它作為成本轉移到營運費用中。而他們兩個之間，貢獻了1%。

So, if you adjust for those and you bake them in, we're still and remain confident to meet our 5% cost target on a full year or circa 5% on a full year basis. On your second question, I'll hand over to Noel.

因此，如果您對這些進行調整並加以考慮，我們仍然有信心實現全年 5% 的成本目標或全年約 5% 的成本目標。關於你的第二個問題，我將由諾埃爾回答。

Katherine, I was in Hong Kong recently and spoke to a number of the market participants there and the developers. And I think firstly, I think the change to the stamp duty arrangements in Hong Kong in March in the budget was very well received, and it's had a positive impact on the activity levels of sales in the Hong Kong market residential sales. It was an extremely significant inflow of activity in the first month. That will be very beneficial to the liquidity positions of many of those developers.

凱瑟琳，我最近在香港，與當地的一些市場參與者和開發商進行了交談。我認為，首先，我認為香港3月份預算案中印花稅安排的改變很受歡迎，這對香港市場住宅銷售的銷售活動水平產生了積極的影響。第一個月的活動流入量非常大。這對於許多開發商的流動性狀況非常有利。

We have to wait and see how that stabilizes because undoubtedly, there was an element of catch up in that first month because people were anticipating some change. Therefore, there was low activity in the preceding months. And then we got to see how that stabilizes. But I think that is a very positive move. It will enhance liquidity within the market. It will enhance activity in the mortgage market. But I think it's too early to call a trend at the moment. I think we need to see how Q2 stabilizes following those changes, but a very helpful intervention.

我們必須等待，看看情況如何穩定下來，因為毫無疑問，第一個月存在追趕的因素，因為人們預計會發生一些變化。因此，前幾個月的活動較少。然後我們要看看它是如何穩定下來的。但我認為這是一個非常積極的舉措。它將增強市場內的流動性。它將增強抵押貸款市場的活動。但我認為目前判斷趨勢還為時過早。我認為我們需要看看第二季度如何在這些變化之後穩定下來，但這是一個非常有用的干預措施。

Coombs" type="A"

庫姆斯”類型=“A”

Thank you, Andrew. So the UK NIM was up 6 basis points, indeed, essentially benefited from some idiosyncrasies of structural hedges and timing of structural hedge maturities and reinvestments.

謝謝你，安德魯。因此，英國淨利差上升了 6 個基點，事實上，這主要得益於結構性對沖的一些特殊性以及結構性對沖到期和再投資的時機。

So, if you consider broadly flat to be broadly a range of plus or minus 10 basis points. I would say U.K. NIM has been broadly flat for the last couple of quarters. And we foresee it to remain broadly flat in the next quarter. And you will, therefore, add to that broadly flat, some structural hedge due increases, which will drive you within this plus or minus 10 basis point range.

因此，如果您認為大致持平是指大致正負 10 個基點的範圍。我想說，英國淨利差在過去幾季基本上持平。我們預計下一季將基本持平。因此，在基本持平的基礎上，您將增加一些結構性對沖，這將推動您在正負 10 個基點的範圍內。

As regards our loans and deposits have been stable. Again, the U.K. economy has been resilient, we're very optimistic about the outlook for the U.K., specifically around inflation and employment. It remains a very important customer franchise for us. It remains a very important market for us, and we continue gaining market share.

就我們的貸款和存款而言，一直穩定。同樣，英國經濟一直具有彈性，我們對英國的前景非常樂觀，特別是在通膨和就業方面。對我們來說，它仍然是一個非常重要的客戶群。這對我們來說仍然是一個非常重要的市場，我們不斷獲得市場份額。

I mean, we continue gaining market share in mortgages with a 10% new business market share when our back book now market share has moved or our kind of overall portfolio market shares moved from 7% to 8%. We are a 25% market share in SME lending.

我的意思是，當我們的現有市場份額發生變化或我們的整體投資組合市場份額從 7% 上升到 8% 時，我們將繼續以 10% 的新業務市場份額獲得抵押貸款市場份額。我們在中小企業貸款市場佔有 25% 的份額。

And obviously, we continue investing in this business. You can look at the ring-fenced bank cost growth and how much we can support cost and investment growth for their infants bank within our overall circa 5% cost growth.

顯然，我們將繼續投資這項業務。你可以看看圍牆銀行的成本成長，以及在我們大約 5% 的整體成本成長範圍內，我們可以在多大程度上支持他們的嬰兒銀行的成本和投資成長。

So, all this demonstrates the confidence we have in our business in the U.K., our client activity in the U.K. and the outlook for the U.K. If I move to Argentina, I wish I could give you a trend for Argentina, then the way it works is the numbers balloon with hyperinflation, and then they kind of they shrink with devaluation, and it depends how they manifest themselves over month-over-month.

因此，所有這些都表明我們對我們在英國的業務、我們在英國的客戶活動以及英國的前景充滿信心。是數字隨著惡性通貨膨脹而膨脹，然後隨著貨幣貶值而縮小，這取決於它們在每個月的表現如何。

Q4 last year has seen hyperinflation to some level, but they have seen a massive devaluation. If you recall, in December, we've seen more than 50% currency devaluation. That's contributed to a disinflation of the amount that Banking Argentina brought to Q4. And then this quarter is exactly the opposite. We've seen 6% devaluation only, but we've seen 54% inflation, and that will just inflate the numbers.

去年第四季出現了一定程度的惡性通貨膨脹，但貨幣大幅貶值。如果您還記得，12 月份，我們看到了超過 50% 的貨幣貶值。這導致阿根廷銀行業第四季的收入下降。而本季的情況恰恰相反。我們只看到了 6% 的貶值，但我們看到了 54% 的通貨膨脹，而這只會誇大數字。

So, it will be volatile quarter-on-quarter. And our best estimate for the full year is that it may average out to what it averaged out over the last year, which is around EUR 1 billion. Now just looking at the overall Argentina, if you take in the nonbanking NII, you take in the cost base, et cetera, last year's Argentina contribution to our PBT was $0.2 billion. Just to put it in perspective, this is about $0.01 earnings per share or 0.5% dividend per share.

因此，季度環比將會波動。我們對全年的最佳估計是，它可能會達到去年的平均水平，約 10 億歐元。現在看看整個阿根廷，如果你考慮非銀行NII，你考慮成本基礎等等，去年阿根廷對我們PBT的貢獻是2億美元。客觀地說，這相當於每股收益 0.01 美元或每股 0.5% 的股息。

Therefore, I think as you look at the full year '24, that's the quantum that Argentina volatility will create. So, it should not distract you from the way you're forecasting the bank's outcomes.

因此，我認為當你觀察 24 年全年時，這就是阿根廷波動將產生的量。因此，它不應該分散您對銀行業績預測的注意力。

I guess just to follow up on this. In a scenario whereby you didn't have any devaluation of peso. Inflation was a more moderate normal amount? And what would the NII contribution be under that more kind of BAU scenario a quarter for Argentina?

我想只是為了跟進此事。在比索沒有任何貶值的情況下。通貨膨脹是否屬於較為溫和的正常水準？在這種更接近 BAU 的情況下，阿根廷每季的 NII 貢獻是多少？

Look, again, it's a difficult one to say. But if you just do the arithmetic of our EUR 1 billion expected for the full year, of which already EUR 0.5 billion has manifested in the first quarter, a smooth out outcome would be the other $0.5 billion phased out evenly over 3 quarters. But that's a highly volatile number. So, I wouldn't use it as a for (inaudible)

再說一遍，這很難說。但如果你只算一下我們全年預期的 10 億歐元（其中 5 億歐元已在第一季體現），那麼平穩的結果將是在 3 個季度內均勻淘汰另外 5 億歐元。但這是一個非常不穩定的數字。所以，我不會將它用作 for （聽不清楚）

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. That ends today's webinar. You may now disconnect your line, and enjoy the rest of your day.

謝謝你們，女士們、先生們。今天的網路研討會到此結束。現在您可以斷開線路，享受剩下的一天。