滙豐控股 (HSBC) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to investor and analysts conference call for HSBC Holdings Plc's Q3 2023 results. For your information, this conference is being recorded.

女士們先生們早安，歡迎參加投資者和分析師電話會議，了解匯豐控股有限公司 2023 年第三季業績。本次會議正在錄製中，供您參考。

At this time, I'll hand the call over to George Elhedery, Group Chief Financial Officer.

此時，我會將電話轉交給集團財務長 George Elhedery。

Thank you, operator, and hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us on our third quarter results call today. I will lead today's presentation and Noel will join me for the Q&A session.

謝謝接線員，大家好。感謝您參加今天的第三季業績電話會議。我將主持今天的演講，諾埃爾將和我一起參加問答環節。

Allow me first to begin by saying a few words on recent events in the Middle East. We have all been shocked by the devastating terrorist attack on Israel on 7th October and saddened by the growing humanitarian crisis in Gaza. The loss of innocent life and suffering is heartbreaking. We continue to offer assistance to our impacted colleagues and clients. Just to be clear, we are not changing our strategy in Israel or the Middle East.

首先請容許我就中東最近發生的事件說幾句話。我們都對 10 月 7 日針對以色列的毀滅性恐怖襲擊感到震驚，並對加薩日益嚴重的人道主義危機感到悲痛。無辜生命的喪失和痛苦令人心碎。我們將繼續為受影響的同事和客戶提供協助。需要明確的是，我們不會改變在以色列或中東的戰略。

Turning to our results now. As always, our purpose, ambition, values and strategy have been helping us drive the results that I am going to talk about today. Some highlights to begin with. First of all, the year-to-date performance clearly demonstrates that we have had 3 consecutive strong quarters reflecting the successful execution of strategy. Year-to-date reported profit before tax was $29.4 billion, which is an increase of $17.4 billion on the same period last year, supported by higher interest rates and enabled by our strong balance sheet and the non-recurrence of notable items.

現在轉向我們的結果。一如既往，我們的目標、野心、價值觀和策略一直在幫助我們達到我今天要談論的成果。首先是一些亮點。首先，今年迄今的業績清楚地表明，我們已經連續三個季度表現強勁，反映出策略的成功執行。年初至今，報告的稅前利潤為 294 億美元，比去年同期增加 174 億美元，這得益於較高的利率以及我們強勁的資產負債表和顯著項目的非重複性。

We have delivered an annualized return on tangible equity of 17.1%, excluding strategic transactions. For the avoidance of doubt, these transactions are the reversal earlier this year of the impairments relating to the planned sale of our retail banking operations in France and the gain on acquisition from SVB UK. We've announced another share buyback of up to $3 billion, bringing total buybacks announced this year up to $7 billion and we've announced 3 quarterly dividends, which totaled $0.30 per share.

我們的有形資產年化報酬率為 17.1%（不包括策略交易）。為避免疑義，這些交易是今年稍早與計劃出售法國零售銀行業務相關的減損以及從 SVB UK 收購的收益的逆轉。我們宣布了另一筆高達 30 億美元的股票回購，使今年宣布的回購總額達到 70 億美元，我們還宣布了 3 個季度股息，總計每股 0.30 美元。

We have also exhibited good growth across our businesses. Wholesale transaction banking revenue was up 50% year-to-date, primarily due to higher rates and reflecting the strength of our deposit franchise. Wealth had another good quarter. Wealth balances were up by 12% compared to the same quarter of last year. And we're also very pleased that we attracted $34 billion of net new invested assets in the quarter, bringing the rolling 12-month total [$77 billion], which is a strong performance and testament to our strategy. The planned acquisition of Citi's wealth business in mainland China will also help accelerate our growth plans for this business. In our 2 home markets of Hong Kong and the U.K., we are also seeing good growth areas. In Hong Kong, insurance new business CSM was up 40% year-on-year. And our mortgage books in Asia and the U.K. grew by a total of $11 billion compared to the third quarter of last year.

我們的業務也呈現出良好的成長動能。今年迄今為止，批發交易銀行業務收入成長了 50%，這主要是由於利率上升，並反映出我們存款業務的實力。財富又迎來了一個好的季度。與去年同期相比，財富餘額增加了12%。我們也非常高興的是，我們在本季度吸引了 340 億美元的淨新投資資產，使 12 個月的滾動總額達到了 [770 億美元]，這是強勁的業績，也證明了我們的戰略。計劃收購花旗在中國大陸的財富業務也將有助於加速我們該業務的成長計劃。在香港和英國這兩個本土市場，我們也看到了良好的成長領域。在香港，保險新業務CSM年增40%。與去年第三季相比，我們在亞洲和英國的抵押貸款帳簿總計增加了 110 億美元。

Let me now move on to the third quarter numbers. Revenue was up -- revenue was $16.2 billion, which was up $4.6 billion or 40% on last year's third quarter on a constant currency basis. This was driven, firstly, by group net interest income of $9.2 billion, which was up by $1.3 billion on the same period last year. And secondly, non-NII was $6.9 billion, up by $3.3 billion, primarily due to, first, the non-recurrence of the $2.5 billion impairment in last year's third quarter relating to the planned sale of our retail banking operations in France. Second, $1.6 billion higher revenue offset into non-NII from the central cost of funding GBM trading activity; and three, offset by $0.6 billion of treasury disposal losses taken for structural hedging and risk management purposes for our balance sheet.

現在讓我談談第三季的數據。營收成長－營收為 162 億美元，以固定匯率計算，比去年第三季成長 46 億美元，成長 40%。這首先是由於集團淨利息收入達到 92 億美元，比去年同期增加了 13 億美元。其次，非NII為69億美元，增加了33億美元，主要是因為去年第三季與計畫出售法國零售銀行業務相關的25億美元減損不再發生。其次，16 億美元的增加收入抵銷了 GBM 交易活動的中央成本中的非 NII 支出；第三，抵銷了出於資產負債表結構性避險和風險管理目的而發生的 6 億美元資金處置損失。

Banking NII of $11.5 billion was up $2.8 billion on last year's third quarter and broadly stable on the second quarter. Expected credit losses of $1.1 billion were broadly stable on the same period last year and included $0.5 billion charge in relation to our mainland China commercial real estate portfolio booked in Hong Kong.

銀行業NII為115億美元，比去年第三季增加28億美元，第二季大致穩定。預期信貸損失為 11 億美元，與去年同期基本穩定，其中包括與我們在香港登記的中國大陸商業房地產投資組合相關的 5 億美元費用。

Costs were up 1% in the quarter as lower restructuring costs were offset by higher technology spend, a higher performance related pay accrual and costs from HSBC Innovation Banking. Lending balances and deposits were both broadly stable. And our CET1 ratio was 14.9%, an increase of 20 basis points on the second quarter. Finally, we announced the third consecutive quarter of strong capital returns with a quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share and a further share buyback of up to $3 billion, which we expect to complete before the full year results in February.

本季成本上升 1%，原因是較低的重組成本被較高的技術支出、較高的績效相關應計工資和匯豐創新銀行成本所抵銷。貸款餘額和存款大致穩定。我們的CET1比率為14.9%，比第二季上升20個基點。最後，我們宣布連續第三個季度實現強勁的資本回報，季度股息為每股 0.10 美元，並進一步回購高達 30 億美元的股票，我們預計將在 2 月份公佈全年業績之前完成。

The next slide shows that our global businesses all performed well. Wealth and Personal Banking had a strong quarter with revenues up by 71% or by 7%, excluding the impairment taken in last year's third quarter, relating to the sale of our retail banking operations in France. Within this, wealth was up by 6% as our ongoing investment in that business continued to gain traction, and Personal Banking also had another good quarter, up by 21% due mainly to higher rates.

下一張投影片顯示我們的全球業務均表現良好。財富和個人銀行業務季度表現強勁，收入成長 71% 或 7%（不包括去年第三季因出售法國零售銀行業務而產生的減損）。其中，由於我們對該業務的持續投資繼續獲得牽引力，財富增長了 6%，而個人銀行業務也有另一個良好的季度，增長了 21%，主要是由於利率上升。

Across Commercial Banking and Global Banking and Markets, Global Payment Services had revenues of more than $4.3 billion, which was an increase of 56% on the third quarter of 2022. And in our trade business, lending balances were up 3% in the quarter, mainly in Asia, reversing the declining trend from previous quarters. Global Banking and Markets also performed well, up by 2%. This included a resilient performance in foreign exchange compared to a strong third quarter last year and a good performance in securities financing and debt markets.

在商業銀行以及全球銀行和市場領域，全球支付服務的收入超過 43 億美元，較 2022 年第三季成長 56%。在我們的貿易業務中，本季貸款餘額成長了 3%，主要在亞洲，扭轉了前幾季的下降趨勢。全球銀行和市場也表現良好，成長了 2%。這包括與去年第三季的強勁表現相比外匯表現強勁，以及證券融資和債務市場的良好表現。

On this next slide, reported net interest income was $9.2 billion, which was broadly stable on the second quarter. Banking NII was $11.5 billion, up $2.8 billion on last year's third quarter and stable on the second quarter of this year. As a reminder, banking NII in the second quarter was favorably impacted by a $0.4 billion year-to-date catch-up due to methodology changes, approximately half of which was attributable to the first quarter. Adjusting for this, banking NII was slightly up in the quarter -- in this third quarter on a like-for-like basis. The net interest margin remained broadly stable at 170 basis points. We are not updating our 2023 NII guidance and are also not expecting consensus to change.

在下一張投影片中，報告的淨利息收入為 92 億美元，第二季基本上穩定。銀行業NII為115億美元，比去年第三季增加28億美元，今年第二季維持穩定。需要提醒的是，由於計算方法的改變，第二季度銀行業NII受到了年初至今4億美元追趕的有利影響，其中大約一半來自第一季。對此進行調整後，銀行業NII在本季度略有上升——在第三季度的同比基礎上。淨利差基本上穩定在170個基點。我們不會更新 2023 年 NII 指南，也不期望共識會改變。

Next, constant currency non-NII of $6.9 billion was up $3.3 billion on last year's third quarter, primarily due to, number one, a $2.3 billion favorable movement in notable items and foreign exchange as last year's third quarter included a $2.5 million impairment relating to the planned sale of our retail banking operations in France. And this year's third quarter included $0.6 billion of treasury disposal losses.

其次，以固定匯率計算的非NII 為69 億美元，比去年第三季增加了33 億美元，這主要是由於，第一，值得注意的項目和外匯出現了23 億美元的有利變動，因為去年第三季包括了250 萬美元的減損計劃出售我們在法國的零售銀行業務。今年第三季的財務處置損失包括 6 億美元。

Number two, a $1.6 billion increase in the revenue offset into non-NII from the central cost of funding GBM trading activity; and number three, a $0.3 billion decrease in other, which includes lower market treasury income. We continue to reposition our treasury portfolio as part of our balance sheet structural hedging and risk management initiatives. In the third quarter, this resulted in $0.6 billion of treasury disposal losses. These losses do not have a material impact on CET1 capital or TNAV as they have already been taken through reserves last year, although they will have a modest benefit to our CET1 ratio this year.

第二，非 NII 收入增加 16 億美元，抵銷了 GBM 交易活動融資的中央成本；第三，其他收入減少 3 億美元，其中包括市場財務收入減少。我們繼續重新定位我們的資金投資組合，作為我們資產負債表結構對沖和風險管理舉措的一部分。第三季度，這導致了 6 億美元的財務處置損失。這些損失不會對 CET1 資本或 TNAV 產生重大影響，因為它們去年已通過儲備金計入，儘管它們今年會對我們的 CET1 比率產生一定的好處。

The disposal proceeds are reinvested into higher-yielding or higher duration assets. Disposal losses are forecast to be more than recovered through NII with the majority over the next 5 years. Further restructuring of the treasury portfolio, leading to a loss of around $0.4 billion is expected in the fourth quarter, which will also be reported as a notable item and have modest CET1 upside.

處置收益將再投資於收益率更高或久期更長的資產。預計處置損失將在未來 5 年內透過 NII 彌補。財務投資組合的進一步重組預計將導致第四季度約 4 億美元的損失，這也將作為一個值得注意的項目進行報告，並具有適度的 CET1 上升空間。

Turning now to credit. Our third quarter ECL charge was $1.1 billion, which was stable on the same period last year. It includes a $0.5 billion charge related to our mainland China commercial real estate exposure booked in Hong Kong, following a $0.4 billion charge in the same quarter last year. The remaining wholesale charge was $0.3 billion. The $0.2 billion personal lending charge included modest U.K. releases, although we retain overlays to address the current risks in the economic outlook.

現在轉向信用。我們第三季的 ECL 費用為 11 億美元，與去年同期相比保持穩定。其中包括與我們在香港登記的中國大陸商業房地產風險相關的 5 億美元費用，繼去年同一季度的 4 億美元費用之後。剩餘的批發費用為 3 億美元。 2 億美元的個人貸款費用包括英國的適度釋放，儘管我們保留了覆蓋範圍以應對當前經濟前景的風險。

Stage 3 balances of $19 billion were down $1 billion in the second quarter and account for 2% of total loans. We continue to expect the 2023 ECL charge of around 40 basis points of average gross customer lending, including held-for-sale balances. Focusing now on our mainland China commercial real estate portfolio. Our principal area of focus remains the portfolio within Hong Kong. As you can see, our total exposure stands at $7.5 billion, which is down by $0.5 billion from the half year, primarily due to write-offs. In February this year, we communicated the management assessed plausible downside scenario of around $1 billion.

第三階段餘額為 190 億美元，第二季減少了 10 億美元，佔貸款總額的 2%。我們仍預期 2023 年的預期信用損失將佔平均總客戶貸款（包括持有待售餘額）的 40 個基點左右。現在重點關注我們中國大陸的商業房地產投資組合。我們的主要關注領域仍然是香港的投資組合。正如您所看到的，我們的總風險敞口為 75 億美元，比半年減少了 5 億美元，主要是由於沖銷。今年 2 月，我們向管理層通報了對 10 億美元左右的合理下行情境的評估。

The deterioration in the third quarter means that we crystallized around $500 million of provisions into the P&L that were part of this plausible downside. We're encouraged by recent policy measures, which will help the sector but need time to take effect. So the plausible downside scenario does now look more realistic for full year 2023.

第三季的惡化意味著我們在損益表中具體計入了約 5 億美元的撥備，這是這一看似合理的下行趨勢的一部分。我們對最近的政策措施感到鼓舞，這些措施將有助於該行業，但需要時間才能生效。因此，2023 年全年看似合理的下行情境現在看起來更加現實。

Our exposures rated strong, good and satisfactory were broadly stable in the third quarter last year. Around half of these exposures is lending to state-owned enterprises, the other half is primarily lending to privately owned enterprises that are not residential property developers. This is reflected in the minimal ECL allowance in this part of the portfolio.

去年第三季度，我們的風險敞口評級為“強”、“好”和“令人滿意”，基本上穩定。其中約一半是向國有企業提供的貸款，另一半則主要是向非住宅房地產開發商的私人企業提供的貸款。這反映在這部分投資組合的最低預期信用損失準備金。

And if I now turn to the table at the bottom of the slide. Against unsecured credit impaired exposures, we already have now 73% coverage ratio. And against unsecured substandard exposures, we have a coverage ratio of just under 10%. This is clearly an area that we will continue to monitor closely. But to reiterate, we continue to expect the 2023 ECL charge of around 40 basis points of average gross customer lending, including held-for-sale balances.

如果我現在轉向投影片底部的表格。針對無擔保信用減損風險敞口，我們目前的覆蓋率已達 73%。對於無擔保的次級風險敞口，我們的覆蓋率略低於 10%。這顯然是我們將繼續密切關注的一個領域。但重申一下，我們仍然預計 2023 年的預期信用損失將占平均總客戶貸款（包括持有待售餘額）的 40 個基點左右。

Next, on costs. Reported costs for the first 9 months of 2023 were down 2% on last year, primarily due to lower restructuring costs. Our cost efficiency ratio for the same period was 44%, improved from 66% last year. On a constant currency basis, costs were up by 1% on last year's third quarter as the lower restructuring costs were offset by increased technology and operations spend, a higher performance-related pay accrual and the acquisition and investment costs from HSBC Innovation Banking, which were not included in our original plans.

接下來，關於成本。 2023 年前 9 個月的報告成本比去年下降 2%，主要是由於重組成本降低。同期我們的成本效率為 44%，比去年的 66% 有所提升。以固定匯率計算，成本較去年第三季上升 1%，原因是重組成本下降被技術和營運支出增加、與績效相關的應計工資增加以及匯豐創新銀行業務的收購和投資成本所抵消。沒有包括在我們原來的計劃中。

On our cost target basis, we now expect our 2023 costs to be around 4% higher than 2022. This is around 1% or $300 million more than previously guided due to higher technology and operation spending, which we believe is appropriate given the importance of digitization to the group and the strong financial performance of the business.

根據我們的成本目標，我們現在預計2023 年的成本將比2022 年高出4% 左右。由於技術和營運支出增加，這比先前指導的成本高出約1% 或3 億美元，考慮到以下因素的重要性，我們認為這是適當的：集團數位化和業務強勁的財務表現。

In addition to this, we are contemplating an increase in performance-related pay in the fourth quarter, depending on the outturn of our performance and ongoing execution of our strategy in the fourth quarter. This would represent a further increase of around 1%. We have provided a full reconciliation from reported costs to our target basis cost on Slide 15 of the deck. And to reiterate, tight cost discipline remains my priority and a priority across the whole group.

除此之外，我們正在考慮在第四季度增加與績效相關的薪酬，具體取決於我們的業績表現和第四季度策略的持續執行。這將進一步增加約 1%。我們在投影片 15 上提供了從報告成本到目標基本成本的完整調節表。重申一下，嚴格的成本控制仍然是我的首要任務，也是整個集團的首要任務。

The next slide shows our strong capital position. Our CET1 ratio was 14.9%, which was up 20 basis points on the second quarter. A few things to draw your attention to. Number one, the dividend accrued year-to-date is $9.6 billion or $0.49 per share, while we have announced dividends of $5.9 billion or $0.30 per share.

下一張投影片顯示了我們強大的資本狀況。我們的CET1比率為14.9%，比第二季上升20個基點。有幾件事需要引起您的注意。第一，今年迄今應計股息為 96 億美元或每股 0.49 美元，而我們已宣布股息為 59 億美元或每股 0.30 美元。

Number two, we have announced a further share buyback of up to $3 billion, which is expected to have a circa 40 basis point impact on our CET1 ratio in the fourth quarter. We are aiming to complete it before the full year results in February.

第二，我們宣布進一步回購高達 30 億美元的股票，預計這將對我們第四季的 CET1 比率產生約 40 個基點的影響。我們的目標是在二月份公佈全年業績之前完成該工作。

Number three, we also expect to reclassify our retail banking operations in France as held for sale in the fourth quarter ahead of completion of the planned sale on the 1 of January 2024, which would have a further impact on the CET1 ratio of around 30 basis points.

第三，我們也預計在2024 年1 月1 日完成計劃出售之前，將在第四季度將我們在法國的零售銀行業務重新分類為持有待售，這將對30 左右基點的CET1 比率產生進一步影響點。

Finally, the planned sale of our Canada banking business also remains on track to complete in the first quarter of 2024. And as a reminder, profits from our Canada banking business accrue to the buyer and are not included in our dividend calculations for the year.

最後，我們加拿大銀行業務的計劃出售也預計在 2024 年第一季完成。需要提醒的是，我們加拿大銀行業務的利潤歸買方所有，不包含在我們今年的股息計算中。

We estimate the gain on sale will be around $5.5 billion, which we will recognize through a combination of earnings from Canada and the remaining gain on sale at completion. Upon completion of the transaction, it remains our intention to consider a special dividend of $0.21 per share as a priority use of the proceeds and as previously announced.

我們估計銷售收益約為 55 億美元，我們將透過加拿大的收入和竣工時剩餘的銷售收益相結合來確認這一收益。交易完成後，我們仍然打算考慮派發每股 0.21 美元的特別股息，作為所得款項的優先用途，正如先前宣布的那樣。

So in summary, this was another strong quarter. We delivered a good profit performance and an annualized return on tangible equity of 17.1%, excluding strategic transactions, reflecting the successful execution of our strategy. Transaction banking and wealth both performed well and continued investment will help accelerate the growth of our Wealth business. We continue to expect the 2023 ECL charge of around 40 basis points of average gross customer lending. We remain committed to tight cost discipline, and we have a strong capital position and have increased return to shareholders by way of dividends and share buybacks.

總而言之，這是另一個強勁的季度。我們實現了良好的利潤表現，剔除策略交易後的有形權益年化報酬率為17.1%，反映出我們策略的成功執行。交易銀行和財富業務均表現良好，持續投資將有助於加速財富業務的成長。我們繼續預期 2023 年 ECL 費用約為平均客戶貸款總額的 40 個基點左右。我們仍然致力於嚴格的成本控制，我們擁有強大的資本狀況，並透過股利和股票回購增加了股東回報。

And with that, operator, can we please open it up for questions. Thank you.

那麼，接線員，我們可以打開它來提問嗎？謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today comes from Aman Rakkar from Barclays.

（操作員說明）今天我們的第一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Aman Rakkar。

Two questions, please. On -- firstly, on costs. Can I just probably be a little bit more on exactly what's changed around costs? Because I think as recently as mid-September, HSBC were reiterating their expectations for costs very much in line with the existing guys and the commitment to the cost base. So particularly around the point around compensating staff, potentially compensating staff for performance. I understand that it's been a strong year for profits, but it doesn't look like the view of profitability changed materially since you all spoke to us. So that component there would be interesting. And the related point then is to what extent should we expect that element of cost growth to roll over into next year? I guess, at its heart, I'm trying to get a sense of what the underlying cost growth is that you're currently seeing through the business?

請教兩個問題。首先，關於成本。可否詳細介紹一下成本方面的具體變化？因為我認為就在九月中旬，匯豐銀行重申了他們對成本的預期，這與現有人員和對成本基礎的承諾非常一致。因此，特別是圍繞薪酬員工這一點，可能會根據員工的績效進行薪酬。我知道今年是利潤強勁的一年，但自從你們與我們交談以來，對獲利能力的看法似乎並沒有發生重大變化。所以那個組件會很有趣。相關的一點是，我們應該預期成本成長因素會在多大程度上延續到明年？我想，從本質上講，我想了解您目前在業務中看到的潛在成本增長是什麼？

And then the second question was around margins. I was wondering if you could just help us with a bit on your experience on deposit beta and term deposit mix, particularly, in Hong Kong, but also a comment on the U.K. would be helpful. And as part of that, what your expectations are for NIM in both of those markets, please?

第二個問題是關於利潤率的。我想知道您是否可以幫助我們介紹您在存款測試版和定期存款組合方面的經驗，特別是在香港，但對英國的評論也會有所幫助。作為其中的一部分，您對這兩個市場的 NIM 有何期望？

Sure. Aman, so first on costs. I think with regard the -- this 1% cost we contemplate for Q4. So look, we have to put this in the perspective of the financial performance. Obviously, at the start of the year, we weren't necessarily realizing the performance of the group. We obviously need to wait for Q4, both to assess the financial performance, but equally to assess how we continue to deliver on our strategy.

當然。阿曼，首先是成本。我認為，我們考慮在第四季增加 1% 的成本。所以看，我們必須從財務績效的角度來看這一點。顯然，在年初，我們不一定意識到球隊的表現。我們顯然需要等待第四季度，既可以評估財務業績，也可以評估我們如何繼續實施我們的策略。

It ultimately wouldn't be a matter for the Board and the remuneration committee to decide, but we felt it appropriate and fair to recognize that our colleagues have contributed, participated for the last many years through the whole strategic reshaping of the firm through ensuring we have a great deposit franchise and a strong balance sheet and obviously delivering the growth we've seen in wealth and transaction banking that we can channel 1% or the equivalent $300 million towards performance-related pay. Again, all this is at the stage of contemplation, the matter we will reaffirm at the year-end and again, subject to our remuneration committee's opinion.

最終這不是董事會和薪酬委員會決定的問題，但我們認為認識到我們的同事在過去多年中通過確保我們在公司的整個戰略重塑過程中做出的貢獻和參與是適當和公平的。擁有強大的存款特許經營權和強大的資產負債表，顯然實現了我們在財富和交易銀行業務中看到的成長，我們可以將1% 或相當於3 億美元的資金用於與績效相關的薪酬。再次強調，所有這些都處於考慮階段，我們將在年底再次重申此事，以我們的薪酬委員會的意見為準。

In terms of next year, now we're not giving guidance for next year. But I think we are reflecting in this performance-related pay a year-on-year material change in our performance, as you've seen from our returns and our PBT, which obviously, with that quantum probably not expect to next year, right?

就明年而言，現在我們不會給出明年的指導。但我認為，正如您從我們的回報和 PBT 中看到的那樣，我們在這種與績效相關的薪酬中反映了我們績效的同比重大變化，顯然，明年可能不會出現這樣的情況，對吧？

In terms of margins, Aman -- so as we indicated, at these levels of rates in -- mostly in the U.K. and certainly in a number of Western markets and for our wholesale businesses, at these levels of freight, we were expecting to have a materially higher betas than 50%. We've expected that additional rate hikes from here would be mostly for the benefit of our customers. If you look at the overall betas in -- in the U.K. overall, overall betas around 50%, just north of 50%. So while the marginal betas have exceeded 80%, the overall is in the range of 50%.

就利潤率而言，正如我們所指出的，在這些費率水平上，安曼主要是在英國，當然還有一些西方市場，對於我們的批發業務來說，在這些運費水平上，我們預計貝塔係數明顯高於50%。我們預計從這裡開始的額外升息主要是為了我們客戶的利益。如果你看英國的整體貝塔值，整體貝塔值約為 50%，略高於 50%。因此，雖然邊際貝塔值已超過 80%，但整體仍處於 50% 的範圍內。

Term deposit mix, Hong Kong kind of same trend as we've seen through the 9 months coming to this quarter, about 1% migration per month. So we have seen 4% over the quarter after 2% previous quarter and 3% in the quarter 1. That took the total term deposit mix to 31% in Hong Kong. We have not seen a deterioration of the trend.

定期存款組合，香港的趨勢與我們在本季度的 9 個月中看到的趨勢相同，每月遷移約 1%。因此，繼上一季的 2% 和第一季的 3% 之後，我們看到本季的利率為 4%。這使得香港的定期存款總額達到 31%。我們沒有看到趨勢惡化。

We expect the trend to remain the same as we look into potential headwinds in the future. But equally, we continue to see some of the tailwinds we were calling out before to continue. Just to put in perspective, the U.K. term deposit mix is just single-digit percentage points. So it's a modest increase in Q3, but it's not a main contributor to the dynamic of our NII.

當我們研究未來潛在的阻力時，我們預期這一趨勢將保持不變。但同樣，我們繼續看到一些我們之前呼籲繼續進行的有利因素。客觀地說，英國的定期存款結構僅為個位數百分點。因此，第三季略有成長，但並不是我們國家資訊基礎設施動態的主要貢獻者。

Georges, if I could just add a couple of comments on the VP. There are 2 factors that are really coming to play in Q3, at the half year when we talked about our cost position, we had an eye to VP and we had a very strong first 6 months of the year. There was a lot of economic uncertainty around at that time, inflation, interest rates, ECLs, China commercial real estate. So we didn't want to anticipate exactly what the financial performance would be in the final 6 months of the year. We were confident of mid-teen returns, but we needed to make sure that the final 6 months traded well.

喬治，我可以對副總裁添加一些評論嗎？有兩個因素在第三季度真正發揮作用，在半年中，當我們談論我們的成本狀況時，我們著眼於副總裁，並且我們在今年的前 6 個月表現非常強勁。當時有許多經濟不確定性，通貨膨脹、利率、預期信用損失、中國商業房地產。因此，我們不想準確預測今年最後 6 個月的財務表現。我們對青少年的回報充滿信心，但我們需要確保最後 6 個月的交易良好。

I think as we've gone through Q3, we've continued to trade well. So I think our expectations now on a full year out are probably higher than they would have been when we started this year and started to build the financial plan for this year. So in the context of things we've given an indication, that given the strong profit performance and if it continues into Q4, it would be right and proper to share some of that upside in profit compared to original expectations with our colleagues the way that we intend to share the upside and expectations with our shareholders on both dividends and buybacks and a 1%, 300 million top-up to VP for the level of performance that could well outturn this year is a reasonable amount of additional VP to put in.

我認為，隨著第三季的結束，我們的交易繼續良好。因此，我認為我們現在對全年的預期可能高於我們今年開始並開始製定今年財務計劃時的預期。因此，在我們已經給出的情況下，考慮到強勁的利潤表現，如果這種情況持續到第四季度，與我們的同事分享與最初預期相比的一些利潤上漲將是正確和適當的，因為我們打算與股東分享股息和回購方面的好處和期望，並為VP 充值1%，即3 億美元，以達到今年很可能實現的業績水平，這是一個合理的額外VP 投入金額。

And I will remind you that VP is not a continuum and a baseline, it is assessed each year on the profit of the bank against targets and can go up and can go down. But that's a final determination we'll make at the end of the year. And we're just trying to be fair to our colleagues on what they've done, but it's a factor of uncertainty at the half year over trading performance has become less uncertain, as we've gone into Q3 and you've seen the numbers and we hope we'll continue in Q4 in a strong manner. And if that's the case, we feel we should, reward our colleagues for a very strong performance this year. But it's -- that's the background to it. We remain, both myself and George, remain absolutely committed to strong cost discipline.

我要提醒您的是，VP 不是一個連續體和基線，它每年根據銀行的利潤與目標進行評估，可以上升也可以下降。但這是我們將在今年年底做出的最終決定。我們只是想公平對待我們的同事所做的事情，但這是半年的不確定因素，交易表現變得不那麼不確定，因為我們已經進入第三季度，你已經看到了數字，我們希望我們能在第四季持續強勁。如果是這樣的話，我們覺得我們應該獎勵我們的同事今年的出色表現。但這就是它的背景。我們本人和喬治仍然絕對致力於嚴格的成本紀律。

Our next question today comes from Joseph Dickerson from Jefferies.

今天我們的下一個問題來自傑富瑞 (Jefferies) 的約瑟夫·迪克森 (Joseph Dickerson)。

Just on -- just following up on cost. I suppose how much of the tech and op cost spend was, if you will, necessary versus discretionary in terms of needing to keep up with competitors and so forth? And then the other aspect would be on the trading book funding costs, you've guided to greater than $7 billion for the full year. And on my numbers, you're already at $6.2 billion. So that implies a material step-down in that cost, unless we should be emphasizing on the -- in excess of $7 billion element there. Any color on that front would also be helpful.

只是繼續——只是跟進成本。我想如果你願意的話，在需要跟上競爭對手等方面，有多少技術和營運成本支出是必要的，而不是可自由支配的？另一方面是交易帳戶融資成本，您預計全年超過 70 億美元。根據我的數字，你的資產已經達到 62 億美元。因此，這意味著該成本將大幅下降，除非我們應該強調超過 70 億美元的部分。前面的任何顏色也會有幫助。

Joseph so maybe I'll answer your second question, fairly easy. You should definitely, as you mentioned, emphasize in excess of $7 billion. We actually haven't revised our guidance. We felt by and large that the consensus is in the right place and didn't need to influence it. We expect the trading --

約瑟夫，也許我會回答你的第二個問題，相當簡單。正如您所提到的，您絕對應該強調超過 70 億美元。我們實際上還沒有修改我們的指導。總的來說，我們認為共識是正確的，不需要影響它。我們預計交易——

So a similar run rate, similar quarterly run rate we should be thinking about?

那我們應該考慮類似的運行率、類似的季度運行率嗎？

So purely for the funding cost of the trading books, you should expect that the trading balances will remain broadly stable at around $130 billion for the quarter, then kind of the math are simple. It's just that times the short rate levels essentially in USD. As you look at the overall banking NII, I think the indication is that we've grown $0.1 billion Q2 to Q3. We haven't given an indication for Q4. Again, feel comfortable with where the consensus is for Q4 and just reiterate that banking NII is probably a better measure because it kind of gets you immunized for some of these choices we make and how much we fund the trading book with.

因此，純粹就交易帳戶的融資成本而言，您應該預期本季的交易餘額將大致穩定在 1300 億美元左右，那麼數學就很簡單了。這只是美元短期利率水準的倍數。當你觀察整個銀行業 NII 時，我認為這表明我們從第二季到第三季成長了 1 億美元。我們尚未透露第四季度的情況。再次，對第四季度的共識感到滿意，並重申銀行 NII 可能是一個更好的衡量標準，因為它可以讓您對我們所做的一些選擇以及我們為交易帳戶提供資金的數量免疫。

With regards to your first question about tech and ops, so it's a mix of necessary and discretionary. We made the decision on the basis that, when first -- when we put our cost base at the start of the year, we had a materially higher inflation than in some areas in some geographies and some pockets than we anticipated for the year. And we felt that it would be adverse for certain customer outcomes if we needed to take a more restrictive action on it.

關於你關於技術和營運的第一個問題，所以它是必要的和可自由裁量的混合體。我們做出這項決定的依據是，當我們首先將成本基數放在年初時，我們的通貨膨脹率比我們今年預期的某些地區和某些地區的某些地區要高得多。我們認為，如果我們需要對其採取更嚴格的行動，這將對某些客戶結果產生不利影響。

And this is putting it in the context that our 9-months year-to-date reported cost is down 2% year-on-year. It's down 2% year-on-year. So this is why we were willing to tolerate the continued investment in tech and ops. I just want to reaffirm what Noel said, we're absolutely committed to our cost discipline, and we will be giving you visibility about how we're spending our money now and in the future.

在此背景下，我們今年迄今報告的 9 個月成本年減了 2%。年減2%。因此，這就是為什麼我們願意容忍對技術和營運的持續投資。我只是想重申諾埃爾所說的，我們絕對致力於我們的成本紀律，我們將讓您了解我們現在和將來如何花錢。

Our next question today comes from Jason Napier from UBS.

今天我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀 (UBS) 的傑森·納皮爾 (Jason Napier)。

The first one, please on the $600 million of losses on the hedge reset and risk management this quarter and the extra sort of $400 million that's penciled in for Q4. I wonder whether you wouldn't mind adding a bit of color in terms of exactly what it is you're doing there. The payback period, you said sort of longer than 5 years. It feels like a downside risk hedge that's being put in place. If you could just talk about how much you might get the sensitivity down once all is said done, and just confirm that it really pays you for H4 rather than support revenues in the near term.

第一個，請介紹本季對沖重置和風險管理造成的 6 億美元損失，以及第四季預計的 4 億美元額外損失。我想知道你是否不介意為你正在做的事情添加一點色彩。你說的投資回收期超過5年。感覺就像正在實施下行風險對沖。如果你能談談一旦一切都完成後你可以將敏感度降低多少，並確認它確實為你支付了 H4 而不是支持短期內的收入。

And then secondly, we've had a busy week of mainland Chinese bank reporting all of the majors have missed our own forecasts and one of your peers wrote down there in mainland Chinese state with their third quarter results. I wonder could you update us, please, on where value in uses versus book value on BoCom and how that process runs towards year end?

其次，我們度過了忙碌的一周，中國大陸的銀行報告稱，所有主要銀行都沒有達到我們自己的預測，你們的一位同行在中國大陸寫下了他們的第三季度業績。我想知道您能否向我們介紹交通銀行的使用價值與帳面價值的最新情況以及該過程在年底如何進行？

Sure, Jason, so first, on the treasury losses. So a few things to share here. First is we see this as one of the multiple tools we have to manage our structural hedge and obviously, to manage the risk in our balance sheet. Second, importantly, the losses themselves have been taken already into CET1 mostly last year. So these are already affected in our CET1. And this is why effectively, they have a mild CET1 ratio benefit where we sit today.

當然，傑森，首先是財政損失。所以這裡有一些事情可以分享。首先，我們將其視為管理結構性避險以及明顯管理資產負債表風險的多種工具之一。其次，重要的是，去年大部分損失本身已計入 CET1。所以這些在我們的CET1中已經受到影響了。這就是為什麼他們實際上擁有我們今天所坐的 CET1 比率的溫和優勢。

And then third, as you indicated, Jason, we are looking to retrieve these losses in the NII line, essentially over the next 5 years. So this is a reinvestment into either longer dated or higher-yielding instruments by disposing faster disposing of lower yielding instruments to allow us to kind of move faster on our structural hedging of the balance sheet.

第三，正如您所指出的，Jason，我們希望基本上在未來 5 年內彌補 NII 線中的這些損失。因此，這是透過更快處置較低收益工具，對期限較長或收益較高的工具進行再投資，使我們能夠更快地進行資產負債表的結構性對沖。

You -- if you wanted some sense of kind of math, you could argue if we've taken $600 million losses, it's about $100 million loss additional NII every year for the next 6 years or so, which kind of gives you a sense of how we're looking at it. And it's indeed, as part of our structural heading, which means part of how we're -- or protecting the balance sheet, mitigating risks of a rate downfall in the future.

你——如果你想要某種數學意義上的感覺，你可能會說，如果我們損失了6 億美元，那麼在接下來的6 年左右的時間裡，每年NII 的損失大約為1 億美元，這會給你一種感覺我們如何看待它。事實上，作為我們結構性目標的一部分，這意味著我們如何保護資產負債表，減輕未來利率下降的風險。

On your second question, Jason, about the mainland China. So first, I can comment on BoCom's Q2 performance because, as you know, in our numbers, we have 1 quarter delay. So the exercise relates to Q2. Our value in use as of Q3 has a room of about $0.4 billion compared to our caring value. So as -- look, impairment is not a management discretionary decision, right? There's a rigorous accounting process, and we just follow the process. And based on their Q3 results, we will evaluate those as we go into Q4, and that will be part of our end of year assessment.

關於你的第二個問題，傑森，關於中國大陸的問題。首先，我可以評論交通銀行第二季的表現，因為如您所知，在我們的數據中，我們有一個季度的延遲。所以這個練習與 Q2 有關。截至第三季度，我們的使用價值與我們的關懷價值相比還有約 4 億美元的空間。那麼，看，減損不是管理階層的酌情決定，對嗎？有嚴格的會計流程，我們只是遵循流程。根據他們第三季的結果，我們將在進入第四季度時對其進行評估，這將是我們年終評估的一部分。

I think the important thing I want to share about BoCom is because it sits in significant investments and because we hold capital deduction -- regulatory capital deductions against it. And as you can see from the slide on capital $16 billion captive deduction, it effectively means that any impairment on our holding of BoCom should it happen will have virtually 0 CET1 ratio impact.

我認為我想分享的關於交通銀行的重要一點是因為它擁有重大投資，並且因為我們持有資本扣除額——針對它的監管資本扣除。正如您從 160 億美元資本扣減的幻燈片中看到的那樣，這實際上意味著我們持有的交通銀行如果發生任何減值，對 CET1 比率的影響幾乎為 0。

And that's because any impairment will be compensated like-for-like by a release of the deductions of a similar amount. So therefore, no implication on CET1. We'll also have an implication of reported profit, accounting reported profits. But were treated as a material notable item, and it will have more implications either on the way we calculate our dividend or our dividend payout ratio. So this is why at this stage, this is not a concern. We'll just follow the accounting rules as we do the VIU assessments.

這是因為任何減值都將透過釋放類似金額的扣除額來同等補償。因此，對 CET1 沒有影響。我們也將獲得報告利潤、會計報告利潤的影響。但我們被視為重要的值得注意的項目，它將對我們計算股息的方式或股息支付率產生更多影響。所以這就是為什麼在現階段這不是一個問題。我們在進行 VIU 評估時將遵循會計規則。

Jason, just for clarity, based on the impairment test we did in Q3, we have headroom against our carrying value. There is no impairments due at Q3. And we'll reassess it at Q4. But based on the Q3 results that BoCom issued a couple of days ago, those results at a headline level first side did not cause us any concern on our impairments as to Q3. But we'll reassess that at Q4.

傑森，為了清楚起見，根據我們在第三季所做的減損測試，我們的帳面價值還有空間。第三季沒有應有的減損。我們將在第四季重新評估。但根據交通銀行幾天前發布的第三季業績，這些整體水準的業績並沒有引起我們對第三季減損的擔憂。但我們將在第四季重新評估這一點。

Thanks, Noel. You'll have the details in the ARNA in how we do the impairment testing for the value in use of BoCom, Jason, in case you need it. Can we move to the next question?

謝謝，諾埃爾。 Jason，如果您需要的話，您可以在 ARNA 中了解我們如何對交通銀行的使用價值進行減損測試的詳細資訊。我們可以轉到下一個問題嗎？

Our next question today comes from Gurpreet Singh Sahi from Goldman Sachs.

今天我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Gurpreet Singh Sahi。

So first one on loan growth. How do we see the areas of loan growth going into next year? We've done a good growth around mortgages, but they have been offset by shrinkage in the commercial book. So that's the first one. So in terms of medium term, of course, we are highlighting mid single-digit, but specifically as interest rates remain high, how is the borrowing appetite into next year?

第一個是關於貸款成長的。我們如何看待明年貸款成長的領域？我們在抵押貸款方面取得了良好的成長，但它們被商業帳簿的萎縮所抵消。這是第一個。因此，就中期而言，我們當然會專注於中個位數，但具體而言，由於利率仍然很高，明年的借貸意願如何？

And then the second one with respect to the special dividend timing, the $0.21, will it be paid by June, or will it be announced towards the second quarter and paid later on?

然後是關於特別股息時間的第二個，即 0.21 美元，會在 6 月之前支付，還是會在第二季度宣布並稍後支付？

Gurpreet, so in terms of loan growth, look, what we've observed so far is strong growth in -- continued growth in mortgages. We said $11 billion year-to-date, essentially in Hong Kong and the U.K. that continued even this quarter, despite softness in the housing market, but we remain competitive, and we continue to support this business for our customers. So that is definitely there. We're also seeing some loan growth in the unsecure space in our retail business. It will be smaller proportions.

Gurpreet，就貸款成長而言，到目前為止，我們觀察到的是抵押貸款的強勁成長——持續成長。我們表示，今年迄今已實現 110 億美元，主要是在香港和英國，儘管房地產市場疲軟，但我們仍保持競爭力，並且繼續為我們的客戶支持這項業務。所以那肯定是存在的。我們也看到零售業務中不安全領域的貸款有所成長。比例會更小。

In terms of Commercial, the reality is the main softness in loan growth and commercial is in Hong Kong. And this is what's driving the commercial overall number. The softness in Hong Kong has two parameters. One, the rate differential with mainland China and as long as we have such a rate differential, it is expected to have mainland Chinese borrowers continue borrowing onshore mainland China rather than borrowing offshore because of the rate differential. And that probably will not reverse in the next couple of years. But also, two, is some of the softness we've seen in the economic conditions in Hong Kong, which we start to see reversing and we've been encouraged by the policy measures that have been taken by way of supporting the economy. And of those materialized, we will start seeing some pickup in the segment.

就商業而言，現實是貸款成長疲軟，而商業是在香港。這就是推動商業總數的原因。香港的疲軟有兩個參數。第一，與中國大陸的利率差異，只要存在這樣的利率差異，預計中國大陸借款人會因為利率差異而繼續在中國大陸境內借款，而不是在離岸借款。未來幾年這種情況可能不會逆轉。其次，我們在香港經濟狀況中看到了一些疲軟的情況，開始出現逆轉，我們對為支持經濟而採取的政策措施感到鼓舞。在這些已實現的專案中，我們將開始看到該領域出現一些回升。

Now outside this softness areas, we do still have strong loan growth potential in growing areas in our geographies, such as Southeast Asia, such as India, such as the Middle East. We even had growth in some of the Western economies. So that is happening. Quite importantly, also, I want to call out growth in trade. I called it out in the earlier kind of speech, if you want. But trade is bucking the trend for the first quarter where we've seen 3% growth in our loan book after several quarters of decline and that's encouraging. We'll obviously need to see how it evolves, but that's definitely encouraging.

現在，在這個疲軟地區之外，我們在我們地區的成長地區仍然具有強勁的貸款成長潛力，例如東南亞、印度、中東。我們甚至在一些西方經濟體中實現了成長。所以這種情況正在發生。同樣重要的是，我想強調貿易的成長。如果你願意的話，我在之前的演講中已經說過了。但第一季的貿易逆勢而上，在幾季的下降之後，我們的貸款帳簿增加了 3%，令人鼓舞。顯然我們需要看看它如何演變，但這絕對令人鼓舞。

And if you look at it, most of that growth is in Asia, which means it's bucking the trend in Asia, and that's probably on the back -- certainly on the backdrop of. Now the trade between China and ASEAN exceed the trade between China and Europe or China and U.S., and that obviously will benefit given our footprint in China and ASEAN.

如果你仔細觀察的話，你會發現大部分成長都在亞洲，這意味著它與亞洲的趨勢相反，而這可能是在背後——當然是在這樣的背景下。現在中國與東協之間的貿易額超過了中國與歐洲或中國與美國之間的貿易額，鑑於我們在中國和東協的足跡，這顯然會受益。

On the special dividend, Gurpreet, at this stage, we're aiming for completion of Canada sometime in Q1. We will then have to go through due governance and due approvals before we do it. I think H1 '24 is reasonable to expect, but it's obviously at this stage just a matter of a process we need to go through. I think that's what I can say at this stage. As soon -- well, we'll pay it as soon as we can Gurpreet, that's what we can say Gurpreet at this stage.

關於特別股息，Gurpreet，現階段我們的目標是在第一季的某個時候完成加拿大業務。然後，在我們這樣做之前，我們必須經過適當的治理和適當的批准。我認為 24 年上半年是合理的預期，但顯然現階段只是我們需要經歷的過程。我想這就是我現階段可以說的。盡快——好吧，我們會盡快付款 Gurpreet，這就是我們現階段可以說的 Gurpreet。

Our next question today comes from Manus Costello from Autonomous.

今天我們的下一個問題來自 Autonomous 的 Manus Costello。

Can I pay a bit more on the hedging that you've got in place? You've talked about increased hedging for the last couple of quarters, and you have this quarter, as you discussed previously taken some losses through the held-for-sale portfolio to improve NII next year. But we like a kind of an overall understanding of what you've got in terms of the hedge. And so my question specifically is, how big is your hedge? And what's the duration of your hedge so that we can do some modeling to understand how much retention you've got into '24 and beyond?

我可以為你們採取的對沖措施多付一點錢嗎？您談到了過去幾季增加對沖，本季也談到了，正如您之前討論的那樣，透過持有待售的投資組合承擔一些損失，以改善明年的NII。但我們希望對您在對沖方面所擁有的內容有一種全面的了解。所以我的具體問題是，你的對沖有多大？您的對沖持續時間是多少，以便我們可以進行一些建模來了解您在 24 年及以後的保留率？

Manus, very insightful question. We are intending to have much more disclosure around our structural hedge at the full year. We're planning to give you additional disclosures from the one we already give today, which is the usual NII table with the multiple rate shifts and over the 5 years. That includes duration that includes yield on the structural hedge, et cetera, which hopefully can allow you to model all of this. We're not ready to do it at Q3, it will be more appropriate to do it at the full year.

馬努斯，非常有見地的問題。我們打算在全年就結構性對沖進行更多披露。我們計劃在今天已經提供的基礎上向您提供更多披露信息，該表是常見的 NII 表，包含 5 年內的多次利率變化。其中包括包含結構性對沖收益率的久期等，希望它可以讓您對所有這些進行建模。我們還沒有準備好在第三季這樣做，在全年這樣做會更合適。

I think what you should take into account is some of the information we shared at the half year, which is the hedge itself has allowed us to reduce our NII sensitivity at the back end of last year from $6 billion for 100 basis points down to now $2.6 billion over which you should add the funding of the trading book sensitivity of $1.3 million. So that's giving you an idea of how much the overall hedge among other contributors have supported the reduction of our NII volatility and our NII sensitivity to the downward pressure on rates. And I think you should definitely assume that it remains our intention at this phase of the cycle in rates to continue doing hedges as appropriate across all our balance sheets where we can find them. So more on that at the full year, Manus.

我認為你應該考慮的是我們在半年中分享的一些信息，即對沖本身使我們能夠將去年底的NII敏感性從60億美元降低100個基點到現在26 億美元，您應該在其中添加130 萬美元的交易帳戶敏感性資金。因此，這讓您了解其他貢獻者之間的整體對沖在多大程度上支持了我們的 NII 波動性的降低以及我們的 NII 對利率下行壓力的敏感度。我認為你絕對應該假設，在利率週期的這個階段，我們仍然打算繼續在我們可以找到的所有資產負債表上進行適當的對沖。馬努斯，全年更多關於這一點。

Our next question today comes from Raul Sinha from JPMorgan.

今天我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Raul Sinha。

A couple of follow-ups from me, please, if I can. I guess the first one is just around Slide 17, looking at the split of our NIM across your main subsidiaries. I'm just trying to understand the underlying NIM trajectory for the bank in the absence of any rate changes from here on. If you look at the U.K. bank, the ring-fenced bank, obviously, that's -- that margin has been under pressure this quarter and a number of peers are obviously flagging the lag effect on deposit costs as well as the migration is going to have an impact in Q4. I was just wondering if you could give us a little bit color on what do you think is the outlook for your business in terms of margin in the U.K.?

如果可以的話，請我提供一些後續資訊。我想第一個就在幻燈片 17 左右，看看我們的 NIM 在您的主要子公司之間的劃分。我只是想了解在從現在開始沒有任何利率變化的情況下銀行的潛在淨利差軌跡。如果你看看英國銀行，這家受圍牆包圍的銀行，很明顯，本季度的利潤率一直面臨壓力，許多同行顯然都在指出存款成本的滯後效應，以及移民將會產生的影響。第四季的影響。我只是想知道您是否可以向我們介紹一下您認為您的業務在英國的利潤前景如何？

And then I guess just linking it back to the group margin, which is, as you said, broadly stable, but starting to come in a little bit pressure. The HIBOR LIBOR gap is obviously very narrow, seasonally I guess HIBOR tends to go up in Q4. But when we take a step back and think about the overall margin trajectory, would you say that in the absence of rate changes, the margin is stable? Or do you think there's a little bit more pressure, sort of, creeping in because of what is going on in the U.K.?

然後我想只是將其與集團利潤率聯繫起來，正如您所說，集團利潤率大致穩定，但開始受到一點壓力。 HIBOR LIBOR 差距顯然非常窄，季節性我猜 HIBOR 在第四季度往往會上升。但是，當我們退一步思考整體保證金軌跡時，您是否會說在沒有利率變化的情況下，保證金是穩定的？或者您認為由於英國正在發生的事情而帶來了更多的壓力？

Sure. Okay. Okay. So let me unpack there are quite a number of considerations here. So the first one is I would kind of, as always, will encourage you to look at banking NII because that will -- first, it's a better reflection of our rate-sensitive earnings. And second, it will immunize you from some of the kind of business choices we make by putting more money into the trading -- more funding to support the trading activities or not. And that can create noise in NII versus funding of the trading book, which is annulated when you look at it from a banking NII perspective.

當然。好的。好的。因此，讓我來分析這裡有很多考慮因素。因此，第一個問題是，我會像往常一樣鼓勵您關注銀行業 NII，因為這將 - 首先，它更好地反映了我們對利率敏感的收益。其次，它將使您免受我們在交易中投入更多資金而做出的某些業務選擇的影響——更多資金是否支持交易活動。這可能會在 NII 與交易帳戶資金之間產生噪音，當您從銀行 NII 角度來看時，交易帳戶資金是無效的。

Now talking a little bit on Q3 before I talk about the outlook. On the Q3 numbers, if you look at banking NII in Hong Kong, it was up 10%. Now this is not reflected in NIM. NIM is up 2 basis points, but essentially, because a lot of that upside went into the funding of the trading book. But the -- from rate-sensitive earnings in Asia, in Asian entity has grown 10% by about $0.3 billion. So that's the first thing to observe.

在談論前景之前，現在先談談第三季。從第三季的數據來看，如果你看看香港銀行業的NII，你會發現它成長了10%。現在這並沒有反映在 NIM 中。 NIM 上漲了 2 個基點，但本質上是因為大部分上漲空間都投入了交易帳戶的融資。但亞洲實體的利率敏感收益成長了 10%，成長了約 3 億美元。這是首先要觀察的事情。

If you look at HIBOR rates, Q2 to Q3, obviously, they were up 75 basis points. When we look at Q4 to-date, there's another something like 50 basis points baked in the average. So there is additional tailwind into Q4 from HIBOR, which we'll obviously need to see how the next 2 months fair before we evaluate.

如果你看看第二季到第三季的 HIBOR 利率，很明顯，它們上升了 75 個基點。當我們回顧第四季迄今為止的情況時，平均值中還有另一個類似 50 個基點的數據。因此，香港銀行同業拆息 (HIBOR) 對第四季度有額外的推動作用，顯然我們需要先看看未來 2 個月的情況如何，然後再進行評估。

If you look at the U.K., so the U.K. NIM was up 16 basis points Q1 to Q2, down 8 basis points Q2 to Q3. The first thing I want to say is this is definitely not the trend here to be read. I think NIM is broadly stable from here for the next few quarters. Some of these moves are kind of idiosyncrasies in our market treasury management, not necessarily drivers of trends. So we're looking at it in the all as broadly stable. Obviously, it continued facing pressure on deposit costs.

如果你看看英國，英國的淨利差從第一季到第二季上升了 16 個基點，從第二季到第三季下降了 8 個基點。我想說的第一件事是，這絕對不是這裡要閱讀的趨勢。我認為未來幾季 NIM 基本上穩定。其中一些措施是我們市場資金管理的特質，不一定是趨勢的驅動因素。因此，我們總體上認為它是穩定的。顯然，它繼續面臨存款成本的壓力。

But as I just said earlier, at these rates, any additional rate hikes are expected to be passed through to customers, and this is what's been happening. So we've benefited from 75 basis point rate hike in pounds between Q2 and Q3, most of which has gone either to customers in the form of pass-throughs, some term deposits, migration in the U.K. minimal, but some and then obviously asset margin compression in the U.K.

但正如我之前所說，按照這些利率，任何額外的升息預計都會轉嫁給客戶，而這正是正在發生的情況。因此，我們從第二季到第三季期間英鎊升息 75 個基點中受益，其中大部分以轉嫁、一些定期存款、英國移民的形式流向客戶，但也有一些顯然是資產英國的利潤率壓縮

So as you look forward, how can I kind of invite you to evaluate for. First, I'm not giving guidance for 2024, the only guidance we've done for 2024 is now -- is the mid-teens RoTE. We will be giving more details at the year-end.

那麼當你期待的時候，我該如何邀請你來評價呢？首先，我不會給出 2024 年的指導，我們現在為 2024 年所做的唯一指導是 10 歲左右的 RoTE。我們將在年底提供更多細節。

But if you want some indicators of how to think about it. First, think about it as we will continue facing the usual headwinds of margin compression, but that probably is easing now. Having seen most of that compression in Q2 and Q3, we will continue to see pressure on deposits, migration may continue. We've seen a pace of 1% per month in Hong Kong, kind of, steady for the last 9 months. That is likely to continue. And then so these would be the main headwinds.

但如果你想要一些如何思考它的指標。首先，考慮一下，我們將繼續面臨利潤壓縮的常見阻力，但現在這種情況可能正在緩解。在看到第二季和第三季的大部分壓縮之後，我們將繼續看到存款面臨壓力，遷移可能會繼續。我們看到香港的成長率為每月 1%，在過去 9 個月保持穩定。這種情況很可能會持續下去。那麼這些將是主要的阻力。

The tailwinds, so the tailwinds would be, one, the additional rate upside in Hong Kong from HIBOR, probably no further rate upside in the major other currencies. The tailwinds will be reinvestments of maturing structural hedges that have been put at lower rates. And as they mature, we reinvest them in higher rates, and that will give us additional tailwinds.

有利因素，因此有利因素將是，第一，香港銀行同業拆息(HIBOR) 帶來的額外利率上行，而其他主要貨幣的利率可能不會進一步上行。有利的因素將是對成熟的、利率較低的結構性對沖進行再投資。隨著它們的成熟，我們將它們以更高的利率進行再投資，這將為我們帶來額外的推動力。

And then look, the main tailwind, which we anticipate at some stage in 2024, but not yet, at least not for the next couple of quarters, but at some stage in 2024 is volume growth. When we start seeing volume growth, we will see that support for the NII in the medium-term. As we've always indicated mid single-digit percentage point growth for our balance sheet is our mid-term aspiration. And as and when this starts after the next couple of quarters of transition, this will give us the additional tailwinds. And I suppose that's probably as much as we can say at this stage, Raul.

然後看，主要的推動力，我們預計在 2024 年的某個階段，但目前還沒有，至少在接下來的幾個季度不會，但在 2024 年的某個階段是銷量增長。當我們開始看到交易量成長時，我們將在中期看到對 NII 的支持。正如我們一直表示的那樣，我們的中期願望是資產負債表實現中等個位數百分點的成長。當這在接下來的幾個季度的過渡之後開始時，這將為我們帶來額外的推動力。我想這可能是我們現階段能說的最多的了，勞爾。

Our next question today comes from Perlie Mong from KBW.

今天我們的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Perlie Mong。

I guess just a couple of follow-ups. The first one is on your hedge strategy, because I guess you're basically in the disposal of losses, you've essentially, I guess, brought forward some of the rolling of the hedge, which I guess, we haven't really seen so much especially in U.K. banks, they tend to sort of use it as a sort of pure smoothing mechanism as it were to just let the lower rates run off and then reinvesting, but you seem to have brought forward that. So I guess the question is, it does not suggest that you're not just using the hedge as a smoothing mechanism, but it's too sort of more actively sort of traded as it were. Is that fair? I guess, is the first question.

我想只有幾個後續行動。第一個是關於你的對沖策略，因為我猜你基本上是在處理損失，我想你基本上已經提前了一些對沖的滾動，我猜，我們還沒有真正看到特別是在英國銀行，他們傾向於將其用作純粹的平滑機制，因為它只是讓較低的利率流失，然後再投資，但你似乎已經提出了這一點。所以我想問題是，這並不意味著你不僅僅使用對沖作為平滑機制，而是說它的交易過於活躍。這樣公平嗎？我想，這是第一個問題。

And the second question, I guess, it's really for Noel. I just saw on Bloomberg that you made a comment that you feel like the China CRE situation has bottomed out. And I mean, acknowledging that the Chinese government has taken steps to support the sector, but the news flow still seems to be pretty negative. And to the extent that there have been actions taken, they are probably not as large as maybe some of the market would have expected or hopeful a few months ago. So it's probably around tailoring deposit requirements in some of the Tier 1 cities. So I guess just what gives you the confidence that we have bottomed out?

我想，第二個問題確實是針對諾埃爾的。我剛剛在彭博社看到您發表評論稱，您認為中國商業房地產的情況已經觸底。我的意思是，承認中國政府已採取措施支持該行業，但消息流似乎仍然相當負面。就已採取的行動而言，其規模可能沒有市場上一些人幾個月前預期或希望的那麼大。因此，這可能與一些一線城市的存款要求有關。所以我想是什麼讓您有信心我們已經觸底？

Perfect. Perlie, I'll take the first question, and I'll invite Noel, obviously, to comment on your second one. So look, the hedge strategy. First, we have a number of tools at our disposal. We will use them as effectively and as opportunistically as we can to achieve what we want to achieve, which is number one, reducing the downside sensitivity of our balance sheet to a reduction in rates.

完美的。 Perlie，我將回答第一個問題，顯然，我將邀請諾埃爾評論你的第二個問題。所以看，對沖策略。首先，我們有許多可用的工具。我們將盡可能有效地、機會主義地利用它們來實現我們想要實現的目標，這是第一，降低資產負債表對利率下降的下行敏感度。

And number two, extending that reduction of downside as far out in time as possible. This strategy that we've used, which is disposing of existing low earning positions is one of these measures. So number one, to remind you, it does not have the CET1 impact. At least the loss does not have a CET1 impact because the loss has been taken capital mostly in 2022 already. So that gives us this flexibility on our capital.

第二，盡可能延長減少負面影響的時間。我們所使用的策略，即處置現有的低收入職位，就是這些措施之一。首先，要提醒您的是，它不會對 CET1 產生影響。至少該損失不會對 CET1 產生影響，因為該損失大部分已在 2022 年被資本化。因此，這給了我們資本的彈性。

The second one is, yes, part of the hedge considerations is indeed allowing us to extend higher yields for longer rather than be -- rather than kind of retain some of the lower-yielding assets for longer than we wish for and give us additional protection.

第二個是，是的，部分對沖考慮確實允許我們延長更高的收益率，而不是保留一些低收益資產的時間比我們希望的更長，並為我們提供額外的保護。

And the third is, it's also risk management consideration. We will also look at how we use our RWAs and treasury portfolio and how we can optimize the utilization thereof. And how we use combination of bonds and swap hedges and in fair value accounting relationships, et cetera. So there are all sorts of number of other considerations, which we look at. But the outcome of which for the purposes of our bottom line is indeed giving us this runway.

第三，也是風險管理的考量。我們還將研究如何使用 RWA 和財務投資組合以及如何優化其利用率。以及我們如何在公允價值會計關係中結合使用債券和掉期對沖，等等。因此，我們還需要考慮各種其他因素。但就我們的底線而言，其結果確實為我們提供了這條跑道。

Now I need to point out, we've done an exercise in Q3, we indicate that we intend to do another exercise to the tune of about $0.4 billion in Q4. But we do not look at this as a recurring activity, right? This is a kind of by exception, occasional when risk management and performance justify it, we will do it. This is not meant to be a recurrent quarter-on-quarter activity. I just want to be clear about that. We've done it last quarter. We'll do it next quarter. Anything beyond that, we'll give you indications, but it will be on a case-by-case and occasional basis. Noel for the second question.

現在我需要指出，我們已經在第三季進行了一次演習，我們表示打算在第四季進行另一次演習，金額約為 4 億美元。但我們不認為這是一項重複性活動，對吧？這是一種例外，偶爾當風險管理和績效證明合理時，我們就會這樣做。這並不意味著是一項經常性的季度環比活動。我只是想澄清這一點。我們上個季度已經做到了。我們將在下個季度進行。除此之外，我們都會向您提供指示，但這將根據具體情況和偶爾情況進行。諾埃爾回答第二個問題。

Yes, on China CRE, my comments this morning were really about the massive policy correction that has taken place over the last 18 months in commercial real estate in China. It has really impacted very heavily the real estate market. Do I think the big negative correction in the market has been delivered? And do I expect further negative correction? No. I think what we're now into is the workout phase of that policy correction.

是的，關於中國華創創業，我今天早上的評論實際上是關於過去 18 個月中國商業房地產發生的大規模政策調整。它確實對房地產市場產生了很大的影響。我認為市場的大幅負面調整已經完成嗎？我預期會出現進一步的負面修正嗎？不。我認為我們現在正處於政策調整的實施階段。

Equally, I think I said this morning, I don't see a big swing back into positive policy territory for commercial real estate, I see it as fine-tuning from this low base. So what I'm talking about is the market as a whole, the commercial real estate market in China, a massive correction down. I think we're at the bottom of that correction phase. And we're now in a gradual replay and back out with possible policy tweaks taking place. But as you quite rightly say, probably they're not going to be big swings back up in policy correction. They're going to be smaller policy correction taking place as we've seen in recent weeks.

同樣，我想我今天早上說過，我不認為商業房地產會大幅回落到積極的政策領域，我認為這是在這個低基數基礎上進行的微調。所以我所說的是整個市場，中國的商業房地產市場，大規模的回檔。我認為我們正處於修正階段的底部。我們現在正在逐步重播並退出，可能會進行政策調整。但正如你所說，政策調整可能不會大幅波動。正如我們最近幾週所看到的那樣，政策調整將會規模較小。

Now what does that mean for ECLs for banks, both domestically and internationally, well, those ECLs have and could still emerge over time. But I think the market itself has bottomed and now we're in a period of sort of readjustment for the new norm and I don't see a big readjustment back up. From our point of view on ECLs, I think we feel, as George said, we've got good coverage ratios on the unsecured book.

現在，這對國內和國際銀行的預期信用損失意味著什麼？隨著時間的推移，這些預期信用損失已經而且可能仍然會出現。但我認為市場本身已經觸底，現在我們正處於新常態的重新調整時期，我認為不會大幅調整。從我們對預期信用損失的角度來看，我認為，正如喬治所說，我們對無擔保帳簿的覆蓋率很高。

The 50% of our offshore book, that is SOE-related or POE related. We do not see that same policy correction affecting the SOEs, the way it's affected the POEs, so we don't see necessarily a downside on that at this stage. And then those POEs in that 50% I talked about, those POEs are largely either secured or they're not in the residential sector, they're in CRE and other forms of the sector. So I think from our point of view, we feel well provisioned at this stage. It's not to say that there aren't potential problems on the horizon from an ECL point of view for the industry, but we feel as though we're well positioned.

我們的離岸帳簿中有 50% 是與國有企業或私營企業相關的。我們認為政策調整不會像影響私人企業那樣影響國有企業，因此現階段我們認為這不一定會帶來負面影響。然後我談到的那 50% 中的那些 POE，這些 POE 大部分要么是有保障的，要么不在住宅領域，而是在 CRE 和其他形式的領域。所以我認為從我們的角度來看，我們在現階段感覺準備充分。這並不是說從 ECL 的角度來看該行業不存在潛在問題，但我們覺得我們已經處於有利位置。

But I suppose my bottoming comment was on the market as a whole, in that there's been such a massive correction. I think we're now in a gradual rebuild, but that gradual rebuild will take time, and there will be the potential for the industry to bear some further losses. And we are keeping a close eye on that and what it means for us, but we think we're well provisioned at the Q3 level. We're probably going to take some more of our downside -- possible downside scenario in Q4. But as George said earlier, we think that we've got the capacity within our overall guidance on ECL of 40 basis points to absorb any further charges we may or may not take in Q4.

但我想我的觸底評論是針對整個市場的，因為市場出現瞭如此大規模的調整。我認為我們現在正在逐步重建，但逐步重建需要時間，而該行業有可能承受一些進一步的損失。我們正在密切關注這一點及其對我們意味著什麼，但我們認為我們在第三季的水平上已經準備好了。我們可能會在第四季承受更多的負面影響——可能出現的負面情況。但正如喬治早些時候所說，我們認為我們有能力在預期信用損失 40 個基點的總體指導範圍內吸收我們在第四季度可能採取或不採取的任何進一步費用。

Our next question today comes from Rob Noble from Deutsche.

今天我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Rob Noble。

Just on the treasury sales, you've announced another potential $400 million in Q4. Why not do them all in Q3? What's the advantage of weighting, if you just going to realize a loss and do it now. Why not just do them all now?

就庫存銷售而言，您已宣布第四季可能再銷售 4 億美元。為什麼不在第三季全部完成？如果您只是想意識到損失並立即採取行動，那麼加權有什麼好處呢？為什麼不現在就把它們全部做完呢？

Secondly, just a little bit more on China. What's the sensitivity of the balance sheet to rates in China? And how concerned are you about the rate differential between China and Hong Kong? What are the moving parts of that differential on all of the businesses, not with just the commercial side?

其次，再多講一點關於中國的事情。中國資產負債表對利率的敏感度如何？您對中國大陸和香港之間的匯率差異有多擔心？這種差異對所有業務（而不僅僅是商業方面）有哪些影響？

So on your first point, I mean, look, this is a matter of phasing it in time so that we're doing it thoughtfully, carefully. We're evaluating the impact every time we do an activity. So I don't think there is a -- we didn't put a cut off, say for Q3 and Q4. As you can see, the numbers aren't mathematically or aren't kind of -- they don't follow a given symmetry. It's just a matter of where we are on the journey when we kind of cut off the books on the 30 of September, but we carry this activity throughout, and we look for the right market opportunities to do it. I think this is the way we look at it.

因此，關於你的第一點，我的意思是，這是一個及時分階段的問題，以便我們深思熟慮、仔細地做這件事。每次開展活動時，我們都會評估其影響。所以我認為沒有——我們沒有設定第三季和第四季的截止日期。正如您所看到的，這些數字不是數學上的，也不是某種意義上的——它們不遵循給定的對稱性。這只是我們在 9 月 30 日停止記帳時所處的階段的問題，但我們始終堅持這項活動，並尋找合適的市場機會來進行這項活動。我認為這就是我們看待它的方式。

In -- with regards to your second point, a couple of things I can share here, Rob. The first one is the rate sensitivity of China. So just to give you an indication, the impact of the China NIM on our HBAP or our Asia NIM is about 3 basis points. So the fact that we have some rate compression in China simply because of the policy rates compression. This has affected our overall Asia NIM by a couple of basis points. So that's the quantum of the magnitude given obviously, the size and scale we have in Hong Kong versus the size and scale we have in mainland China and other geographies.

關於你的第二點，我可以在這裡分享一些事情，羅布。第一個是中國的利率敏感度。因此，僅供參考，中國 NIM 對我們的 HBAP 或亞洲 NIM 的影響約為 3 個基點。事實上，我們在中國進行了一些利率壓縮，這只是因為政策利率壓縮。這對我們亞洲整體淨利差造成了幾個基點的影響。因此，這顯然是我們在香港的規模和規模與中國大陸和其他地區的規模和規模的對比。

The second one to call out is that the rate differential, we expect it to remain for a matter of many quarters, probably a couple of years, which does mean that offshore -- well, that mainland Chinese customers borrowing offshore in Hong Kong, will probably remain subdued for the next couple of years, because it's much cheaper for them to borrow at lower rates in RMB. And this headwind is likely to continue for the next couple of years.

第二個要指出的是，我們預計利率差異將持續幾個季度，甚至可能是幾年，這確實意味著離岸——嗯，在香港進行離岸借貸的中國大陸客戶，將未來幾年可能會保持低迷，因為對他們來說以較低利率借入人民幣要便宜得多。這種逆風可能在未來幾年持續下去。

Now on the flipside, again, because of the rate differential, the growth in wealth that we observed in Hong Kong is obviously a positive and a beneficiary of the rate differential. So the fact that we're seeing more wealth buildup in Hong Kong, the fact that we're seeing more demand for our insurance products and capabilities in Hong Kong also reflects the fact that for mainland Chinese for some of them and subject to the quotas, they are allowed to do, et cetera, it is interesting. It's an attractive proposition to invest offshore, because they're getting the rate pickup.

另一方面，由於息差，我們在香港觀察到的財富成長顯然是利差的正面因素和受益者。因此，我們看到香港的財富不斷積累，我們看到香港對我們的保險產品和能力的需求增加，這一事實也反映了這樣一個事實：對於中國大陸來說，其中一些產品受到配額的限制，他們被允許做等等，這很有趣。離岸投資是一個有吸引力的提議，因為他們的利率正在上升。

So we're seeing the benefits of that when we talk about our insurance business in Hong Kong and our new business, CSM, while we're seeing the trends on the other side. Look, all this at the end to say is we remain very optimistic in the medium-to-long-term on both Hong Kong and mainland China. And we just need to see some of the short-term difficulties play out specifically in mainland China, specifically in the real estate sector until we recover and are able to see some of the momentum back on positive growth there.

因此，當我們談論香港的保險業務和新業務 CSM 時，我們看到了這樣做的好處，同時我們也看到了另一邊的趨勢。最後，我們對香港和中國大陸的中長期發展仍然非常樂觀。我們只需要看到一些短期困難的出現，特別是在中國大陸，特別是在房地產行業，直到我們復甦，並且能夠看到一些恢復正增長的勢頭。

We have time for one last question today from Andrew Coombs from Citigroup.

今天我們有時間回答花旗集團安德魯·庫姆斯的最後一個問題。

I'll ask a couple if that's, okay. Just a quick one. Firstly, you've reiterated a greater than $35 billion NII guidance in the past, you've talked about being comfortable with incentive which is obviously above that $36.5 billion. So if I could just push you as to whether you are still comfortable with consensus?

我會問幾個人是否可以。只是快一點。首先，您過去重申了超過 350 億美元的 NII 指導，您談到了對顯然高於 365 億美元的激勵感到滿意。那麼我是否可以向您詢問您是否仍願意達成共識？

And then second question, buybacks and how you're thinking about those. Obviously, a step change today going from Q3 for the next quarter, pro forma for the buyback and the France retail, you're looking at a 14.2% core Tier 1 ratio still within your target range. You said 2024 RoTE similar to 2023, payout ratio for the dividend, similar to 2023.

然後是第二個問題，回購以及您如何看待這些。顯然，從下個季度的第三季開始，今天的一步變化是回購和法國零售的備考，您會看到 14.2% 的核心一級比率仍在您的目標範圍內。您說2024年RoTE與2023年相似，股利支付率與2023年相似。

So the only delta seems to be loan growth, where you're still talking cautious short-term, they're aiming for mid single-digits in medium-term. So when we're thinking about the buying back going forward, is it a trade-off with that loan growth? So is it the case that the loan growth goes to mid single-digits you're back to $2 billion, whereas if it stays low single-digit, you stay at $3 billion? Conceptually, how are you thinking about the buyback?

因此，唯一的增量似乎是貸款成長，短期內仍持謹慎態度，但他們的目標是中期實現中個位數。因此，當我們考慮未來回購時，這是與貸款成長的權衡嗎？那麼，如果貸款成長達到中等個位數，你就會回到 20 億美元，而如果貸款成長維持在低個位數，你就會維持在 30 億美元嗎？從概念上講，您如何考慮回購？

Okay, on your first question, NII guidance, I can -- yes, I can reaffirm, we're still comfortable with the 2023 consensus. As you look into 2024, we haven't given guidance yet, apart from the mid-teens RoTE. But I'd like to kind of just point out 2 things, just to keep in mind. The first one is, again, banking NII would be a better guide of how our earnings will behave with rates. So look at NII in combination with the funding cost of the trading book and immunize therefore, your analysis from how much we end up channeling or not in terms of funding to the trading book activities.

好的，關於你的第一個問題，NII 指導，我可以——是的，我可以重申，我們仍然對 2023 年共識感到滿意。當你展望 2024 年時，除了十幾歲左右的 RoTE 之外，我們還沒有給予指導。但我想指出兩件事，只是為了記住。第一個是，銀行 NII 可以更好地指導我們的收益如何隨利率變化。因此，請結合交易帳戶的融資成本來看待NII，並根據我們最終為交易帳戶活動提供多少資金來進行分析。

And then the second one, just to keep in mind is the disposal of Canada and France, which will both contribute to an annualized $1.5 billion of NII, which obviously not be there as and when they go away and as and when the sale is complete.

第二個，要記住的是加拿大和法國的處置，這兩個國家都將貢獻年化 15 億美元的 NII，而當它們消失和出售完成時，這顯然不會存在。 。

And then finally, balance sheet growth at some stage in '24 where we kind of start resuming the expectation of our balance sheet to grow. That's, I think, in the broad sense how we should look at for 2024. Again, we're not guiding, but we're giving you some tools that you can do your analysis.

最後，資產負債表在 24 年的某個階段成長，我們開始恢復對資產負債表成長的預期。我認為，從廣義上講，這就是我們應該如何看待 2024 年。同樣，我們不是提供指導，而是為您提供一些可以進行分析的工具。

In terms of buyback, so a couple of things. First, the reason we announced a $3 billion buyback, certainly because we have the capital to support it. But equally, because we have an extended period to do it. We mentioned that this is an intent to do it up to February results, that gives us 4 months. So I'll definitely encourage you not to look at $3 billion as the new $2 billion. It is not. It is a reflection of the fact that we are aiming for the -- we have a longer period ahead of us, 4 months instead of 3 and we are aiming to see if we can get up to $3 billion during that period. It's therefore kind of a specific consequence of this length of the period that is ahead of us for that buyback.

在回購方面，有幾件事。首先，我們之所以宣布30億美元的回購，當然是因為我們有資本支持。但同樣，因為我們有很長的時間來做這件事。我們提到，我們打算在 2 月結果公佈之前完成這項工作，這給了我們 4 個月的時間。因此，我絕對鼓勵您不要將 30 億美元視為新的 20 億美元。它不是。這反映了這樣一個事實：我們的目標是——我們還有更長的時間，4 個月而不是 3 個月，我們的目標是看看能否在這段時間內獲得 30 億美元的資金。因此，這是我們回購之前的這段期間的特定後果。

Look, I continue saying it remains our intention to perform a rolling series of share buybacks as long as the capital support it. We look at our forecast and our capital does -- our capital buildup does seem to be reasonably realistic in our forecast. And therefore, it remains our intention to do the series of buybacks.

看，我繼續說，只要資本支持，我們仍然打算進行一系列滾動股票回購。我們看看我們的預測和我們的資本——我們的資本累積在我們的預測中似乎確實相當現實。因此，我們仍然打算進行一系列回購。

About the question of trade-off between buybacks and loan growth, a couple of things. First, as you know, the proceeds of the sale of Canada will give us a buyback runway regardless of loan growth because the gain -- the proceeds less the priority use for special dividend will still allow for a few billion dollars of additional buyback and irrespective of our loans. So that will give us a runway for loan growth.

關於回購和貸款成長之間的權衡問題，有幾件事。首先，如您所知，無論貸款增長如何，出售加拿大的收益都將為我們提供回購跑道，因為收益- 收益減去特別股息的優先使用仍將允許數十億美元的額外回購，無論貸款增長如何我們的貸款。因此，這將為我們提供貸款成長的跑道。

Second, I just need to also highlight when we talk about mid single-digit loan growth, we're not saying mid single-digit RWA growth, some of our loans, specifically in the mortgage space, which is a big component for our loan growth have lower RWA density and therefore, benefit from lower RWAs, and therefore, our RWA growth is expected to trail loan growth kind of absent credit reviews. And therefore, we don't see that there is a competition between loan growth and buybacks. I think this is a fine balance between the two and appropriate trade-off between the two. This is, Andrew, probably how much I can say at this stage of your question.

其次，我還需要強調的是，當我們談論中個位數貸款成長時，我們並不是說中個位數RWA 成長，我們的一些貸款，特別是抵押貸款領域的貸款，這是我們貸款的重要組成部分成長的 RWA 密度較低，因此受益於較低的 RWA，因此，我們的 RWA 成長預計將落後於缺乏信用審查的貸款成長。因此，我們沒有看到貸款成長和回購之間存在競爭。我認為這是兩者之間的一個很好的平衡，也是兩者之間的適當的權衡。安德魯，在你問題的現階段我能說的大概就是這些了。

Thank you very much. I'll move straight to the closing remarks. Thank you, everyone, for joining us today and for your questions. I want to end by reiterating that we've had a good 9 months. All of our businesses have been performing well. We have delivered an annualized return on tangible equity of 17.1% when you exclude strategic transactions and we remain committed to tight cost discipline. We're investing in growth, while we're also supporting dividends and buybacks and I will be looking forward to speaking with you all again soon. So have a good morning or afternoon, everyone. Thank you very much.

非常感謝。我將直接進入結束語。謝謝大家今天加入我們並提出問題。最後我想重申我們度過了美好的 9 個月。我們所有的業務都表現良好。當排除策略交易時，我們的有形權益年化報酬率為 17.1%，並且我們仍然致力於嚴格的成本控制。我們正在投資成長，同時我們也支持股息和回購，我期待很快再次與大家交談。祝大家早安或下午好。非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. You may now disconnect.

謝謝你們，女士們、先生們。您現在可以斷開連線。