滙豐控股 (HSBC) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Investor and Analyst Conference Call for HSBC Holdings plc's Q1 2023 results. For your information, this conference is being recorded. At this time, I will hand the call over to Mr. Richard O'Connor, Group Head of Investor Relations.

女士們先生們，早上好，歡迎參加匯豐控股有限公司 2023 年第一季度業績的投資者和分析師電話會議。為了您的信息，正在錄製此會議。屆時，我會將電話轉交給投資者關係集團主管理查德奧康納先生。

Good morning, good afternoon, everyone. Before I hand over to Noel, I want to give a quick reminder of the reporting changes that have taken effect this quarter. Numbers in the presentation today are on IFRS 17 basis, and thank you to all those who attended (technical difficulty). Our focus is now on reported numbers but we will call out and specify notable items. Our global businesses are still the primary basis while reported, but [we have moved to legal entity] (technical difficulty) as our secondary reporting [line]. Consensus hasn't yet fully caught up with all these changes, but now we've made them, we believe they will give you more clarity, transparency and ultimately benefit your modeling going forward. Noel over to you.

大家早上好，下午好。在我交給 Noel 之前，我想快速提醒一下本季度已經生效的報告變更。今天演示中的數字基於 IFRS 17，感謝所有出席的人（技術困難）。我們現在的重點是報告的數字，但我們會指出並指定值得注意的項目。我們的全球業務在報告時仍然是主要依據，但[我們已轉向法人實體]（技術困難）作為我們的次要報告[行]。共識還沒有完全跟上所有這些變化，但現在我們已經做到了，我們相信它們會給你帶來更多的清晰度和透明度，並最終有利於你的建模。諾埃爾給你。

Thanks, Richard, and good morning in London, good afternoon (technical difficulty), and thank you for joining our first quarter results call. Georges is going to lead the presentation, but I'd like to make some opening comments. We've announced a strong set of Q1 results. We delivered a strong profit performance, which was spread across all our major geographies. All 3 global businesses performed well and cost discipline remained tight.

謝謝，理查德，倫敦早上好，下午好（技術難度），感謝您加入我們的第一季度業績電話會議。 Georges 將主持演講，但我想發表一些開場白。我們已經公佈了一系列強勁的第一季度業績。我們實現了強勁的利潤表現，分佈在我們所有的主要地區。所有 3 項全球業務均表現良好，成本控制仍然嚴格。

In the first quarter, excluding the gain on SVB U.K. and the part reversal of the impairment on the potential sale of our French retail bank, we delivered an annualized return on tangible equity of 19.3%, so our strategy is working. I'm also confident about the future for 2 main reasons: First, we have built a good platform for growth. We have a strong balance sheet, broad-based geographic profit generation, a good combination of net interest income and non-net interest income and a tight grip on costs. This growth potential was evidenced in the inflow of new invested assets of $22 billion in the quarter with a cumulative $93 billion over the last 12 months, which shows that our wealth strategy is continuing to gain traction. And you have my commitment that we will continue to drive strong performance for the rest of the year, while maintaining cost discipline and investing in growth.

在第一季度，不包括 SVB U.K 的收益和我們法國零售銀行潛在出售減值的部分逆轉，我們實現了 19.3% 的年化有形資產回報率，因此我們的戰略正在發揮作用。我對未來也充滿信心，主要有兩個原因：第一，我們已經搭建了良好的增長平台。我們擁有穩健的資產負債表、廣泛的地域利潤創造、淨利息收入和非淨利息收入的良好結合以及對成本的嚴格控制。這一增長潛力在本季度 220 億美元的新投資資產流入以及過去 12 個月累計 930 億美元的流入中得到了證明，這表明我們的財富戰略正在繼續獲得牽引力。我向你們承諾，我們將在今年餘下的時間裡繼續推動強勁的業績，同時保持成本紀律並投資於增長。

The second reason I'm confident is the diversity and connectivity of our geographical footprint, where we have access to markets that are exhibiting good growth and return potential. I've seen firsthand the strong economic recoveries underway in Hong Kong and Mainland China. I've also visited the Middle East recently, where I saw strong economy that is well placed to continue to grow. And the U.K. economy is also showing good resilience, and our HSBC U.K. business is performing well. Investing in growth is critical, and we saw an opportunity to do that by acquiring SVB U.K. For 158 years, HSBC has banked the entrepreneurs who have created today's industrial base. With the SVB U.K. acquisition, we have access to more of the entrepreneurs in the technology and life sciences sectors who will create the businesses of tomorrow.

我有信心的第二個原因是我們地理足蹟的多樣性和連通性，我們可以進入具有良好增長和回報潛力的市場。我親眼目睹了香港和中國大陸正在強勁的經濟復甦。我最近還訪問了中東，在那裡我看到強勁的經濟有望繼續增長。而且英國經濟也表現出很好的韌性，我們匯豐英國業務表現不錯。投資於增長至關重要，我們看到了通過收購 SVB U.K 來實現這一目標的機會。158 年來，匯豐銀行為創造了當今工業基礎的企業家提供了銀行服務。通過收購 SVB U.K，我們可以接觸到更多技術和生命科學領域的企業家，他們將創造明天的業務。

We believe they are a natural fit for HSBC and that we're well and uniquely placed to take them global. You will have seen the recent hires that we've taken on in the U.S. in that regard and we continue -- and we're going to continue to invest to grow this part of the business on a global basis. We announced that the sale of our French retail bank has become less certain due to significant interest rate rises in France and the related fair value accounting treatment impacting the capital position of the purchaser. We still believe it's right to sell the business, but we also have to keep our shareholders' interest in mind when negotiating revised terms. We are working with the buyer to try and find a solution but the uncertainty on deal terms and timing has led us to reverse the impairment. Finally, we made 2 important announcements today. The first was the resumption of quarterly dividends with an interim dividend of $0.10 per share, which is the same level as the last time we paid a first quarterly dividend before COVID. The second was that good, continued capital generation enabled us to announce the share buyback of up to $2 billion.

我們相信它們非常適合匯豐銀行，而且我們處於將它們推向全球的得天獨厚的條件。你會看到我們最近在美國就這方面進行的招聘，我們將繼續 - 我們將繼續投資以在全球範圍內發展這部分業務。我們宣布，由於法國利率大幅上升以及影響買方資本狀況的相關公允價值會計處理，我們法國零售銀行的出售變得不確定。我們仍然認為出售業務是正確的，但在談判修訂條款時，我們也必須牢記股東的利益。我們正在與買方合作，試圖找到解決方案，但交易條款和時間的不確定性導致我們扭轉了減值。最後，我們今天發布了 2 條重要公告。首先是恢復季度股息，中期股息為每股 0.10 美元，這與我們上次在 COVID 之前支付第一季度股息的水平相同。第二個是良好的、持續的資本生成使我們能夠宣布高達 20 億美元的股票回購。

Our AGM on Friday will be an important milestone. As you know, resolutions have been tabled by shareholders on the strategy and structure of the bank as well as to fix the dividends. The Board has recommended that shareholders vote against Resolution 17 and 18. I believe our first quarter results reinforce our recommendations and demonstrate that our current strategy is the fastest and safest way to improve returns. I'll now hand over to Georges to take you through the numbers.

我們週五的年度股東大會將是一個重要的里程碑。如您所知，股東已就銀行的戰略和結構以及固定股息提出決議。董事會建議股東投票反對第 17 和 18 號決議。我相信我們的第一季度業績強化了我們的建議，並證明我們目前的戰略是提高回報的最快和最安全的方式。我現在將交給 Georges 來為您介紹這些數字。

Thank you, Noel, and a warm welcome to all of you. Thank you for being with us on this call today. Let me begin with the first quarter highlights. Profit before tax was $12.9 billion, up $9 billion in the first quarter of 2022 on a constant currency basis. This was driven by an $8.6 billion increase in revenue, which includes $2.1 billion from the part reversal of the impairment relating to the potential sale of our retail banking operations in France and a $1.5 billion provisional gain on the acquisition of SVB U.K. Credit performance was benign with expected credit losses of $0.4 billion. Costs were up 2% in the first quarter against our 2023 target of limiting cost growth to circa 3% on a constant currency basis, and excluding notable items and hyperinflation. Our annualized return on tangible equity was 27.4%, or 19.3%, excluding the gain on SVB U.K. and the part reversal of the impairment on the potential sale of our French retail bank. And as Noel said, we're providing strong capital returns in the form of the first quarterly dividend since 2019 of $0.10 per share and a share buyback of up to $2 billion, which we expect to start after the AGM and complete in around 3 months.

謝謝你，諾埃爾，熱烈歡迎大家。感謝您參加今天的電話會議。讓我從第一季度的亮點開始。按固定匯率計算，稅前利潤為 129 億美元，比 2022 年第一季度增長 90 億美元。這是由收入增長 86 億美元推動的，其中包括與我們在法國的零售銀行業務的潛在出售相關的減值部分逆轉產生的 21 億美元，以及收購 SVB UK 的 15 億美元臨時收益。信用表現良好預期信用損失為 4 億美元。第一季度的成本增長了 2%，而我們 2023 年的目標是按固定匯率計算將成本增長限制在 3% 左右，並且不包括值得注意的項目和惡性通貨膨脹。我們的有形股本年化回報率為 27.4% 或 19.3%，不包括 SVB U.K 的收益和我們法國零售銀行潛在出售減值的部分逆轉。正如諾埃爾所說，我們將以自 2019 年以來每股 0.10 美元的第一季度股息和高達 20 億美元的股票回購的形式提供強勁的資本回報，我們預計這將在年度股東大會之後開始，並在大約 3 個月內完成.

Going into more detail. Net interest income of $9 billion was up $2.9 billion or 47% on the first quarter of 2022 and was stable on the fourth quarter on an IFRS 17 basis. Non net interest income of $11.2 billion was up $5.7 billion, which includes $3.6 billion of notable items in the first quarter and was driven by strong performances in Markets & Security Services and in Wealth. Lending balances increased by $32 billion in the quarter on a constant currency basis. This was made up of $25 billion from the reclassification of balances associated with our retail banking operations in France and $7.3 billion from SVB U.K. Deposits also increased in the quarter due to the same factors. If we excluded these items, lending and deposits were both stable. The tax charge of $1.9 billion included a credit of $0.4 billion. And the CET1 ratio was 14.7%, which was an increase of 50 basis points on the fourth quarter and included a 30 basis point gain relating to the part reversal of the France impairment and the SVB U.K. acquisition.

進入更多細節。淨利息收入為 90 億美元，比 2022 年第一季度增加 29 億美元或 47%，第四季度在 IFRS 17 基礎上保持穩定。非淨利息收入為 112 億美元，增長了 57 億美元，其中包括第一季度的 36 億美元重要項目，這得益於市場與安全服務以及財富的強勁表現。按固定匯率計算，本季度貸款餘額增加了 320 億美元。這是由與我們在法國的零售銀行業務相關的餘額重新分類產生的 250 億美元和來自 SVB U.K. 的 73 億美元組成。由於同樣的因素，本季度存款也有所增加。如果我們排除這些項目，貸款和存款都是穩定的。 19 億美元的稅收包括 4 億美元的抵免額。 CET1 比率為 14.7%，比第四季度增加 50 個基點，其中包括與部分逆轉法國減值和 SVB U.K. 收購相關的 30 個基點收益。

As Noel said, all of our global businesses performed well. This slide gives you the evidence for that. Wealth and Personal Banking had a strong quarter with revenues up 82%. Within this, Wealth was up 13%, driven by the economic resurgence in Asia and increasing traction from the investment we've made in digitization and in people. Personal Banking also had another good quarter, up 64%, benefiting from our strong deposit franchise. Across both Commercial Banking and Global Banking and Markets, the Global Payment Services had revenues of $4 billion, which was an increase of 176% on the first quarter of 2022.

正如諾埃爾所說，我們所有的全球業務都表現良好。這張幻燈片為您提供了證據。財富和個人銀行業務季度表現強勁，收入增長 82%。其中，財富增長了 13%，這得益於亞洲經濟復甦以及我們在數字化和人才方面的投資增加了吸引力。受益於我們強大的存款業務，個人銀行業務也有另一個良好的季度，增長了 64%。在商業銀行業務和全球銀行業務和市場業務中，全球支付服務的收入為 40 億美元，比 2022 年第一季度增長 176%。

Global Banking and Markets also performed well overall. Markets & Securities Services revenue, in particular, were up 12%, with a strong performance in foreign exchange. Reported net interest income was $9 billion, which included $1.4 billion of interest expense due to the funding costs booked in Corporate Center to fund the trading books. This was offset by $1.4 billion of non-net interest income reported in Corporate Center. On a reported basis, the net interest margin was up by 50 basis points on the first quarter of last year and up by 1 basis point on the fourth quarter. For the avoidance of doubt, our net interest income guidance is unchanged from our 2022 full year results. On an IFRS 17 basis, we expect to achieve net interest income of at least $34 billion in 2023. This is equivalent to at least $36 billion of net interest income on an IFRS 4 basis, which was what we told you in February.

環球銀行及市場整體表現也不錯。尤其是市場與證券服務收入增長了 12%，外匯表現強勁。報告的淨利息收入為 90 億美元，其中包括 14 億美元的利息支出，這是由於企業中心為交易賬簿提供資金而產生的融資成本。這被企業中心報告的 14 億美元非淨利息收入所抵消。據報告，淨息差較去年第一季度上升 50 個基點，較第四季度上升 1 個基點。為避免疑義，我們的淨利息收入指引與我們的 2022 年全年業績沒有變化。在 IFRS 17 的基礎上，我們預計到 2023 年將實現至少 340 億美元的淨利息收入。這相當於在 IFRS 4 的基礎上至少有 360 億美元的淨利息收入，這是我們在 2 月份告訴你的。

Our current view is that the things we told you about net interest income at our 2022 full year results remain unchanged. Non-net interest income of $11.2 billion was up substantially by $5.7 billion, which was a combination of, one, $3.6 billion of notable items in the first quarter; two, Global Banking and Markets' trading income increase of $0.4 billion; three, a $1.3 billion increase in corporate center income for funding Global Banking and Markets trading activity; and four, other income, which grew by $0.2 billion and included higher wealth revenues. Fees were broadly stable compared to the first quarter of 2022 with a good payments fee performance, partially offset by lower wealth fees. However, net new invested assets in the quarter were $22 billion and $93 billion for the last 12 months, which bodes well for future growth. I called out the global business revenue highlights earlier, and there is a detailed non-net interest income breakdown on Slide 17. Our credit performance in the quarter was benign with a $0.4 billion charge for expected credit losses, which was $0.2 billion lower than the first quarter last year. This reflected a favorable shift in the probability weightings of economic downside scenarios as well as low Stage 3 losses.

我們目前的觀點是，我們在 2022 年全年業績中告訴您的有關淨利息收入的信息保持不變。非淨利息收入 112 億美元，大幅增長 57 億美元，這是第一季度 36 億美元的重要項目的組合；二、環球銀行及市場交易收入增加4億美元；第三，企業中心收入增加 13 億美元，用於資助全球銀行和市場交易活動；四是其他收入，增長了 2 億美元，其中包括更高的財富收入。與 2022 年第一季度相比，費用基本穩定，支付費用表現良好，部分被較低的財富費用所抵消。然而，本季度的淨新投資資產在過去 12 個月分別為 220 億美元和 930 億美元，這預示著未來的增長。我之前提到了全球業務收入亮點，幻燈片 17 上有詳細的非淨利息收入明細。我們本季度的信用表現良好，預期信用損失計提了 4 億美元，比去年同期低 2 億美元。去年第一季度。這反映了經濟下行情景的概率權重發生了有利的轉變，以及第三階段的損失較低。

China CRE was also benign with the small charge relating to technical adjustments for 2 customers. We saw no China CRE defaults in the quarter for the first time since the fourth quarter of 2021, though there were also limited repayments. We are encouraged by the first quarter, but there are still downside risks. So our 2023 guidance remains unchanged at the charge of around 40 basis points of average gross customer lending, including held-for-sale balances. We will review this at our interim results. On a constant currency basis and excluding notable items, costs were up by 2% in the first quarter once we also exclude the impact of retranslating prior year costs in hyperinflationary economies at constant currency. As you can see, most of the spend was on technology. We remain committed to limiting cost growth to approximately 3% in 2023 on that basis.

中國華創對 2 名客戶收取了與技術調整相關的小額費用，表現也不錯。自 2021 年第四季度以來，我們在本季度首次沒有看到中國 CRE 違約，儘管還款也有限。我們對第一季度感到鼓舞，但仍存在下行風險。因此，我們的 2023 年指引保持不變，平均客戶貸款總額約為 40 個基點，包括持有待售餘額。我們將在中期業績中對此進行審查。在固定匯率基礎上，不包括重要項目，如果我們還排除了以固定匯率計算的惡性通貨膨脹經濟體中重新換算上一年成本的影響，第一季度成本上升了 2%。如您所見，大部分支出都花在了技術上。在此基礎上，我們仍然致力於將 2023 年的成本增長限制在 3% 左右。

As I shared at the year-end, one of my top priorities is cost discipline. Equally, I also shared that another of my top priorities is to support our businesses to deliver growth and returns. The acquisition of SVB U.K. was an opportunity to do that. This is expected to result in incremental cost growth of circa 1% to group operating expenses, the majority of which is the acquired cost base of SVB U.K., together with some additional investment in the U.K. and other geographies. And this will be in addition to our 2023 target of limiting cost growth to circa 3%. Finally, at year end, we also flagged $300 million of expected severance costs this year. A large portion of these severance costs are now expected to be incurred in the second quarter with the cost benefits starting to come through in the second half of this year.

正如我在年底分享的那樣，我的首要任務之一是成本紀律。同樣，我還分享了我的另一個首要任務是支持我們的企業實現增長和回報。收購 SVB U.K. 是實現這一目標的機會。預計這將導致集團運營費用的增量成本增長約 1%，其中大部分是 SVB UK 的收購成本基礎，以及在英國和其他地區的一些額外投資。這將是我們 2023 年將成本增長限制在 3% 左右的目標的補充。最後，在年底，我們還標記了今年 3 億美元的預期遣散費。現在預計這些遣散費的很大一部分將在第二季度發生，而成本效益將在今年下半年開始顯現。

Moving on, we usually include information on customer deposits in the appendix, but we have moved it up to the presentation this time because we appreciate the current interest. Overall, customer deposits are stable year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter. Of the $1.6 trillion of deposits we hold, half are invested in high-quality liquid assets which gives you a sense of our strong liquidity position. This is a historic feature of the way that HSBC manages its balance sheet, and it has not changed. Around 40% of our high-quality liquid assets are held in cash or cash equivalents. And there are only around $1.4 billion of unrealized losses in our held-to-collect portfolio, which is down from around $1.9 billion at the end of 2022.

繼續，我們通常在附錄中包含有關客戶存款的信息，但這次我們將其移至演示文稿中，因為我們感謝當前的興趣。總體而言，客戶存款同比、環比穩定。在我們持有的 1.6 萬億美元存款中，有一半投資於優質流動資產，這讓您感受到我們強大的流動性狀況。這是匯豐管理其資產負債表方式的歷史特徵，並且沒有改變。我們約 40% 的優質流動資產以現金或現金等價物形式持有。我們的持有待收投資組合中只有約 14 億美元的未實現虧損，低於 2022 年底的約 19 億美元。

Three main points on capital. One, our CET1 ratio was 14.7%, up 50 basis points on the previous quarter, 25 basis points of which was from the reclassification of our French retail business from held-for-sale. Pending the outcome of negotiations for our French retail bank, there would be a commensurate reduction to CET1 in the event that the deal closes. Number two, as you know, our business in Canada remains classified as held for sale and we now expect the transaction to complete in the first quarter of 2024 as we work with the purchaser to ensure a smooth transition. We continue to expect to pay the potential special dividend of $0.21 per share in the first half of 2024. And as previously indicated, we expect almost all excess capital from the Canada transaction accruing into CET1 to be returned to shareholders, primarily through a rolling series of share buybacks in '24 and '25 that would be incremental to any existing buyback program at that time. Number three, share buybacks remain an active part for our capital management plans and we will update you on our assumptions for share buybacks in 2023 and beyond at our interim results.

資本的三個要點。第一，我們的 CET1 比率為 14.7%，比上一季度上升 50 個基點，其中 25 個基點來自我們的法國零售業務從持有待售的重新分類。在等待我們法國零售銀行的談判結果之前，如果交易完成，CET1 將相應減少。第二，如您所知，我們在加拿大的業務仍被歸類為持有待售業務，我們現在預計交易將在 2024 年第一季度完成，因為我們與買方合作以確保平穩過渡。我們繼續期望在 2024 年上半年支付每股 0.21 美元的潛在特別股息。如前所述，我們預計加拿大交易中幾乎所有累積到 CET1 的超額資本將主要通過滾動系列返還給股東24 年和 25 年的股票回購將是當時任何現有回購計劃的增量。第三，股票回購仍然是我們資本管理計劃的積極組成部分，我們將在我們的中期業績中向您更新我們對 2023 年及以後股票回購的假設。

So in summary, this was a strong quarter. There was a strong profit performance. Net interest income was stable. Strict cost discipline was maintained, which I told you would remain a key focus area for myself and the management team. Our credit performance was benign amid a more positive economic outlook. We are starting to see the impact of strong economic rebounds in Hong Kong and Mainland China, and our wealth strategy is gaining traction. And I am pleased there were strong capital returns, a quarterly dividend of $0.10 per share and a share buyback of up to $2 billion, which we expect to start after the AGM and complete in around 3 months. As Noel said, we are clearly on track to meet our returns target for 2023 onwards. And this upward trajectory would give us substantial distribution capacity including, of course, the potential proceeds from the Canada transaction. With that, operator, can we please open it up for questions? Thank you.

因此，總而言之，這是一個強勁的季度。盈利表現強勁。淨利息收入穩定。保持了嚴格的成本紀律，我告訴過你，這將仍然是我和管理團隊的一個重點關注領域。在更積極的經濟前景下，我們的信貸表現良好。我們開始看到香港和中國內地經濟強勁反彈的影響，我們的財富策略正在獲得牽引力。我很高興有強勁的資本回報、每股 0.10 美元的季度股息和高達 20 億美元的股票回購，我們預計這將在年度股東大會後開始，並在大約 3 個月內完成。正如諾埃爾所說，我們顯然有望實現 2023 年以後的回報目標。而這種上升軌跡將為我們提供大量的分銷能力，當然包括加拿大交易的潛在收益。有了這個，接線員，我們可以打開它提問嗎？謝謝。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question today comes from Joseph Dickerson with Jefferies.

（操作員說明）我們今天的第一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Joseph Dickerson。

Congrats on a good set of numbers in what wasn't the easiest environment in Q1. But just a quick question on the buyback. You've been very precise in discussing that you would expect to complete the buyback over 3 months. Is this something now we can expect to be a regular quarterly event given the strong capital generation not to mention Canada completing early next year? Or is it going to be slightly more erratic?

祝賀在第一季度不是最簡單的環境中獲得了一組很好的數字。但只是一個關於回購的快速問題。您在討論中非常準確地表示您希望在 3 個月內完成回購。考慮到強大的資本生成，更不用說加拿大明年年初完成的事情，現在我們可以期望這是一個定期的季度事件嗎？還是會稍微不穩定一些？

Joe, thank you for your question. I'll ask Georges to answer that. Thank you.

喬，謝謝你的問題。我會請喬治回答這個問題。謝謝。

Thank you, Joe. Yes, indeed, so first, we are hoping to achieve $2 billion in the next 3 months. In the past, we've managed to achieve between $1 billion and $1.5 billion in a quarter. Obviously, we have 5 months to complete this program. We are hoping to complete it in 3 months. Going forward, we're certainly considering a rolling series of buybacks in '23, '24, '25. Those will be supported by organic capital generation as well as the Canada sale proceeds in '24. And Joe, it remains our intention to return excess capital, including the Canada proceeds if the conditions justify it.

謝謝你，喬。是的，確實如此，首先，我們希望在未來 3 個月內達到 20 億美元。過去，我們在一個季度內成功實現了 10 億至 15 億美元的收入。顯然，我們有 5 個月的時間來完成這個程序。我們希望在 3 個月內完成。展望未來，我們肯定會考慮在 23 年、24 年、25 年進行一系列滾動回購。這些將得到有機資本生成以及 24 年加拿大銷售收益的支持。喬，如果條件允許，我們仍然打算返還多餘的資本，包括加拿大的收益。

Our next question today comes from Raul Sinha with JPMorgan.

我們今天的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Raul Sinha。

Maybe just to follow up on that capital return question firstly and then I've got another one on asset quality. When we look at your headline capital ratio, obviously, it is very strong and quite a significant pickup over the last couple of quarters in particular. I guess there are a few adjusting items in there, should we kind of exclude the French disposal, let's say, reversal from the headline ratio? And I guess if you exclude the share buyback, we kind of get back in your range towards the lower end. So I guess the question is how much RWA growth you anticipate the business to acquire over the next sort of 12 months and linking to the -- to your loan growth outlook as well, I was just wondering if you could give us some color on RWA growth expectations there. And that hopefully gives us a good idea of how much buybacks we can expect. The second one, again, related to how much capital you might be able to generate in the remaining part of the year. Your guidance on asset quality still implies quite a significant tick up in provisions given your very strong performance in Q1. So I guess the question really is, are you guiding us to something specific in terms of the 40 basis point provision charge? Or is that just an element of conservatism built in to your guidance there?

也許只是先跟進那個資本回報問題，然後我有另一個關於資產質量的問題。當我們查看您的標題資本比率時，顯然，它非常強勁，特別是在過去幾個季度中有相當大的回升。我想那裡有一些調整項目，我們是否應該排除法國的處置，比方說，標題比率的逆轉？而且我想如果你排除股票回購，我們就會回到你的範圍內的低端。所以我想問題是您預計在接下來的 12 個月內業務將獲得多少 RWA 增長，並與您的貸款增長前景相關聯，我只是想知道您是否可以給我們一些關於 RWA 的顏色那裡的增長預期。希望這能讓我們很好地了解我們可以期待多少回購。第二個同樣與您在今年剩餘時間裡可能產生的資本量有關。鑑於您在第一季度的強勁表現，您對資產質量的指導仍然意味著撥備大幅增加。所以我想真正的問題是，你是在指導我們就 40 個基點的準備金收取一些具體的事情嗎？或者這只是您在那裡的指導中內置的保守主義元素？

Georges, do you want to take both of those? I can always add something to the asset quality later, but you take both first.

喬治，你想把這兩個都拿走嗎？我以後總是可以在資產質量上添加一些東西，但你先把兩者都拿走。

Sure, Noel, and thank you, Raul. So on your first question, Raul, I think it is prudent to adjust for the French part reversal of the impairment. And so far that capital is concerned. As indicated, if we do reach a transaction, there is a likelihood of a commensurate kind of capital reduction taking place. Now just to remind you, our capital target operating range is 14% to 14.5%, and we expect this to be reviewed slightly lower in the medium to long term. And as we do our capital return projections or our share buyback projections, we look at our medium-term capital outlook and compare it to that range. And this is -- and we obviously cautiously compared to that range. And this is what's giving us now the flexibility to announce this share buyback and to consider additional buybacks going forward. As regards RWA growth in line with loan growth, it has been subdued in the first quarter. It may remain subdued for another quarter. We may see some pickup, particularly with the Hong Kong and China bounce back. But again, for this year, we have not given guidance on loan growth, recognizing some of the economic conditions. We do remain committed for medium term or mid-single-digit growth in loans for the medium term, which is what you can factor in for RWA growth commensurately and equally for our share buyback.

當然，Noel，謝謝你，Raul。所以關於你的第一個問題，勞爾，我認為調整法國部分的減值逆轉是謹慎的。到目前為止，資本是相關的。如前所述，如果我們確實達成交易，則可能會發生相應的資本減少。現在提醒大家，我們的資本目標運營區間是14%到14.5%，我們預計中長期會略微下調。在我們進行資本回報預測或股票回購預測時，我們會審視中期資本前景並將其與該範圍進行比較。這是 - 與該範圍相比，我們顯然是謹慎的。這就是讓我們現在可以靈活地宣布此次股票回購併考慮未來進行更多回購的原因。至於與貸款增長一致的風險加權資產增長，在第一季度一直受到抑制。它可能會在另一個季度內保持低迷。我們可能會看到一些回升，特別是隨著香港和中國的反彈。但同樣，對於今年，我們沒有給出貸款增長的指導，認識到一些經濟狀況。我們仍然致力於中期貸款的中期或中期個位數增長，這是您可以考慮的 RWA 增長相應的因素，同樣適用於我們的股票回購。

If I move on to your next question with regards asset quality. I would lean towards your latter comment, Joe -- sorry, Raul, that we are baking in some conservatism or we think at this stage, the full year guidance, which we have retained unchanged from February is now leaning towards conservative. Just want to highlight some tailwinds, the -- certainly, the situation in the U.K., the possibility that we may dodge a recession is a tailwind. Equally, the recovery in Hong Kong and Mainland China following the opening up of the borders and resumption of activities and trade is a tailwind. But at the same time -- and obviously, the China real estate has shown some positive signs, both from the economic standpoint as well as from the policy measures, but at the same time, we wanted to remain cautious. There are a number of refinancing taking place in Q3 and the China real estate -- commercial real estate portfolio, which we would like to stay cautious on and we continue to watch some of the U.K. SME space, in particular, those heavily reliant on discretionary consumer spend before we revisit the guidance. We intend to revisit this guidance at the H1.

如果我繼續你的下一個關於資產質量的問題。喬，我傾向於你的後一條評論——對不起，勞爾，我們正在保守一些，或者我們認為在這個階段，我們從 2 月開始保持不變的全年指導現在傾向於保守。只想強調一些順風，當然，英國的情況，我們可以避免經濟衰退的可能性是順風。同樣，隨著邊境開放和活動與貿易的恢復，香港和中國大陸的複蘇也是順風。但與此同時 - 顯然，無論是從經濟角度還是從政策措施來看，中國房地產都顯示出一些積極跡象，但與此同時，我們希望保持謹慎。第三季度和中國房地產 - 商業房地產投資組合進行了大量再融資，我們希望對此保持謹慎，我們繼續關注英國的一些中小企業領域，特別是那些嚴重依賴可自由支配的企業在我們重新審視指導之前，消費者支出。我們打算在上半年重新審視該指南。

Just one additional comment from me, please, if I can. You'll notice on the capital schedule, I can't remember what slide it was, but there's a capital walk on CET1. And in there, you'll see that we've accrued dividends at 50% of the profit generation in Q1. And if you do the maths on that, the accrual on dividend is higher than the $0.10 that you've got in the Q1 declared interim dividend. So we're accruing capital distribution at a higher rate -- dividend distribution on a higher rate than the payment of the $0.10. So that's just factored into our CET1 ratio as well.

如果可以的話，請再多說一句。你會注意到在資本計劃表上，我不記得那是什麼幻燈片，但在 CET1 上有一次資本步行。在那裡，你會看到我們在第一季度的利潤產生中累積了 50% 的股息。如果你對此進行數學計算，股息的應計收益高於你在第一季度宣布的中期股息中獲得的 0.10 美元。因此，我們正在以更高的利率累積資本分配——股息分配的利率高於支付 0.10 美元。所以這也只是考慮到我們的 CET1 比率中。

And the next question today comes from Manus Costello with Autonomous.

今天的下一個問題來自 Autonomous 的 Manus Costello。

A couple, please. On that slide, you were talking about and all that, the RWA walk. I noticed that the risk-weighted assets from Silicon Valley just short of $10 million, which seems quite high relative to the loans that you've taken on. I wondered if you could share with us what the nature of those assets is and give us some indication about asset quality within the Silicon Valley Bank acquisition what you've seen so far? And then secondly, with the thought to restructure of the group, you've obviously showed some willingness to make some acquisitions recently and indeed did some disposals where possible. I just wondered if there will be any interest in further moves. In particular, I'm wondering if there will be anything around some of your businesses, such as insurance manufacturing, which you might think about being noncore to group going forward?

請來一對在那張幻燈片上，你正在談論 RWA 步行。我注意到矽谷的風險加權資產只有不到 1000 萬美元，相對於你所承擔的貸款而言，這似乎相當高。我想知道您是否可以與我們分享這些資產的性質，並向我們提供一些有關您目前所見的矽谷銀行收購資產質量的信息？其次，考慮到重組集團的想法，你最近顯然表現出了進行一些收購的意願，並且確實在可能的情況下進行了一些處置。我只是想知道是否會有人對進一步的行動感興趣。特別是，我想知道您的某些業務是否會有任何事情，例如保險製造，您可能會考慮將其作為集團前進的非核心業務？

Thank you. Thanks, Manus. Just on the asset quality of the SVB, everything that we've seen since we bought the business, I don't know, lost track of time must be about 6, 7 weeks ago now. It's been a busy quarter. Everything we've seen reinforces the view that we had on that weekend when we did due diligence. That the book was a good quality book. We've seen no nasty surprises. We did do a bit of mark-to-market on acquisition accounting but that was -- we were -- that was evident to us when we did due diligence that weekend. Georges can give you a little bit more detail on that. But fundamentally, the asset quality of the SVB book is as we expected it. The team have done a good job in building that business over the past 14 years. They've got good client relations, good quality book and good business development potential.

謝謝。謝謝，馬努斯。就 SVB 的資產質量而言，自從我們收購該企業以來，我們所看到的一切，我不知道，忘記了時間，現在一定是大約 6、7 週前。這是一個繁忙的季度。我們所看到的一切都強化了我們在那個週末進行盡職調查時的觀點。這本書是一本質量很好的書。我們沒有看到任何令人討厭的驚喜。我們確實在收購會計方面做了一些按市值計價的工作，但那是——我們是——當我們在那個週末進行盡職調查時，這對我們來說是顯而易見的。 Georges 可以為您提供更多詳細信息。但從根本上說，SVB 賬簿的資產質量符合我們的預期。在過去的 14 年中，該團隊在建立該業務方面做得很好。他們擁有良好的客戶關係、優質的書籍和良好的業務發展潛力。

And on the back of that, we decided to invest in putting more people on the ground in some of the key markets around the world that have strong technology and life science centers to take that business model not just to the U.K., but to take it globally. So we're investing in that as well. So no nasty surprises on that. And then in terms of other acquisitions that we may consider or M&A activity, I mean, I think the insurance business is a key component of the wealth proposition that we have. We have a very profitable insurance business in Hong Kong. It's a combination of manufacturing and distribution. The team has done a good job in building out the product line up in Hong Kong over the past few years to put us back into a market-leading position in Hong Kong, and we get access to the full value chain. One of the challenges we've often faced in the past is getting full recognition of that value as a bank shareholder in an asset -- in an insurance manufacturing business. But you can rest assure, the economics of that business are very strong and we've got a market-leading position. So we obviously, like all businesses, keep the strategy under review. And if we think there's a better position to take, we'll take it. But at the moment, we're pleased with the way the insurance business is performing. Georges, was there anything else you wanted to add on...

在此基礎上，我們決定投資在全球一些擁有強大技術和生命科學中心的關鍵市場投入更多人員，以便將這種商業模式不僅帶到英國，而且帶到英國全球範圍內。所以我們也在這方面進行投資。所以沒有令人討厭的驚喜。然後就我們可能考慮的其他收購或併購活動而言，我的意思是，我認為保險業務是我們擁有的財富主張的關鍵組成部分。我們在香港有非常有利可圖的保險業務。它是製造和分銷的結合。過去幾年，該團隊在香港的產品線建設方面做得很好，使我們重新回到香港的市場領先地位，並且我們可以進入整個價值鏈。我們過去經常面臨的挑戰之一是，在保險製造業務中，作為資產的銀行股東，要充分認識到這種價值。但你可以放心，該業務的經濟效益非常強勁，我們已經處於市場領先地位。因此，我們顯然像所有企業一樣，不斷審查該戰略。如果我們認為有更好的立場，我們就會接受。但目前，我們對保險業務的表現方式感到滿意。喬治，你還有什麼要補充的嗎……

Maybe just getting some of the math. So we acquired a loan book that is just shy of GBP 6 billion. That's about $8 billion. We've acquired $10 billion of RWA. So if you consider those loans and some of the additional RWAs on treasury books, operation risk, et cetera, you kind of land on these numbers. And Manus, we also acquired $1.5 billion of capital after the fair value adjustment so you're talking about effectively a 15% CET1 ratio business that we acquired. So we think it is where it should be.

也許只是得到一些數學。因此，我們獲得了不到 60 億英鎊的貸款簿。那大約是80億美元。我們已經收購了 100 億美元的 RWA。因此，如果您考慮這些貸款和國庫賬簿上的一些額外風險加權資產、運營風險等，您就會對這些數字有所了解。而 Manus，我們在公允價值調整後也獲得了 15 億美元的資本，所以你實際上是在談論我們收購的 15% CET1 比率的業務。所以我們認為這是它應該在的地方。

And our next question comes from Omar Keenan with Crédit Suisse.

我們的下一個問題來自 Crédit Suisse 的 Omar Keenan。

I just had a quick question on rate sensitivity. And if I look at your rate sensitivity, at the end of '22, it looks like you've been quite purposefully bringing down your rate sensitivity on the year 1 view. And I was hoping you could perhaps give us a little bit of color of the direction that sensitivity over 1 year has changed in the first couple of months of the year. Can we assume that some of the structural hedges have been further increased and what would be the sensitivity of the interim, it might have reduced further. Any kind of color with that respect would be really helpful.

我只是有一個關於利率敏感性的快速問題。如果我看看你的利率敏感度，在 22 年底，看起來你一直在故意降低你對第 1 年觀點的利率敏感度。我希望你能給我們一些關於一年前幾個月敏感度變化方向的顏色。我們是否可以假設一些結構性對沖已進一步增加，臨時的敏感性是什麼，它可能會進一步降低。任何一種具有這種尊重的顏色都會非常有幫助。

Georges, do you want to answer that?

喬治，你想回答這個問題嗎？

Sure. Thank you, Omar. So we -- at the end of 2022, the rate sensitivity on the downside 100 basis points scenario was reduced from around $6 billion at the half year to around $4 billion. The -- that $2 billion reduction for NII sensitivity reduction for 100 basis points is for about 1/3 of it justified by the structural hedges that we started putting in place or that we continue putting in place as of last year and 2/3 of it is due to the fact that we are at just higher level of rates and therefore, we have less convexity -- negative convexity on the downside. And if you look into Q1, we have not published a revised rate sensitivity but we continued the trajectory of our structural hedges. Now just as a reminder, structural hedges will reduce somewhat our rate sensitivity and our target is to take that $4 billion in the medium term to circa $3 billion. Well -- and we are on that journey. We certainly have not arrived there. We'll be giving you an update at H1. I think I've addressed your points, Omar.

當然。謝謝你，奧馬爾。因此，到 2022 年底，下行 100 個基點情景的利率敏感性從半年的約 60 億美元降至約 40 億美元。 - 將 NII 敏感性降低 20 億美元減少 100 個基點，其中約 1/3 通過我們開始實施或我們從去年開始實施的結構性對沖和 2/3 的結構性對沖證明是合理的這是因為我們處於更高的利率水平，因此我們的凸度較小——下行的負凸度。如果你看看第一季度，我們還沒有發布修訂後的利率敏感度，但我們繼續了結構性對沖的軌跡。現在提醒一下，結構性對沖將在一定程度上降低我們的利率敏感性，我們的目標是在中期將這 40 億美元增加到大約 30 億美元。好吧 - 我們正在那個旅程中。我們當然還沒有到達那裡。我們將在上半年為您提供更新。我想我已經解決了你的觀點，奧馬爾。

The next question is from Perlie Mong with KBW.

下一個問題來自 Perlie Mong 和 KBW。

I've got 2 questions. The first one is, obviously, the big (inaudible) was very strong and a lot of it comes from noninterest income. And it appears that a lot of it is from commercial banking and maybe some from global banking and markets. How much of that do you think is sustainable? Presumably, you wouldn't encourage us to analyze the whole lot. So how much of that do you think is sustainable? And secondly is, I guess, on the AGM on Friday, so I guess a lot of the attention on Friday will be around the debate you are having with PingAn, and they obviously recently published an announcement that made some critics, especially around your cost income ratio and ROTE. Well, you've obviously printed very strong numbers today. But in some ways, you have guided to a lot of it already, especially around cost. And I'm sure you've also been communicating with them anyway. So why do you think those critics were still made?

我有兩個問題。顯然，第一個是大（聽不清）非常強勁，其中很多來自非利息收入。看起來其中很多來自商業銀行業務，也許還有一些來自全球銀行業和市場。您認為其中有多少是可持續的？據推測，您不會鼓勵我們分析全部。那麼您認為其中有多少是可持續的？其次，我想是在周五的年度股東大會上，所以我想週五的很多注意力都集中在你與平安的辯論上，他們顯然最近發布了一份公告，引起了一些批評，尤其是圍繞你的成本收入比率和 ROTE。好吧，你今天顯然印出了非常強勁的數字。但在某些方面，你已經指導了很多，尤其是在成本方面。而且我相信你也一直在與他們溝通。那麼，為什麼您認為這些批評仍然存在？

Okay. I'll deal with the second one later. I'll ask Georges to deal with the non-NII first, if that's okay.

好的。稍後我會處理第二個。如果可以的話，我會請 Georges 先處理非 NII。

Sure. So we are expecting many of you will adjust your full year numbers to reflect our Q1 outperformance and that's a fair assessment, Perlie. But I would caution you not to annualize Q1, so if I just unpack it, the non-NII relating to the funding of our trading activities, $1.4 billion is fairly reasonable to assume this number will annualize. The Wealth business, obviously, with the outlook improving in wealth fairly reasonable to assume we will see regained traction and bounce back, in particular, in Hong Kong, whereas some of the other activities such as the foreign exchange trading outperformance, I would caution you not to annualize this number and just to bake it in as a Q1 outcome and then Q2, Q3, we'll see how they fare.

當然。因此，我們預計你們中的許多人會調整全年數據以反映我們第一季度的出色表現，這是一個公平的評估，Perlie。但我要提醒你不要將第一季度年化，所以如果我只是拆開它，與我們交易活動的資金相關的非 NII，假設這個數字將年化，14 億美元是相當合理的。財富業務，顯然，隨著財富前景的改善，我們可以合理地假設我們將看到重新獲得牽引力並反彈，特別是在香港，而其他一些活動，如外匯交易表現出色，我會提醒你不要對這個數字進行年化，而只是將其作為第一季度的結果，然後是第二季度、第三季度，我們將看看它們的表現如何。

So just on the -- and on the wealth performance, so you said most of the non-NII was CMB and GB&M. I think it's also fair to say that in WPB, the wealth business performed well in Q1. Its revenue was up 13% in Q1 relative to Q1 last year. So I think what Georges is saying is, I think we've seen a recovery taking place in that wealth revenue. We're not expecting that to just be a Q1 phenomenon. That is something that will continue in Q2 and Q3 and Q4, but it's still early days to predict whether the 13% is an annual number or it's higher than that or lower than that. So -- but we don't expect it to disappear in Q2, Q3 or Q4. So there should be a level of annualization on that as well in the WPB-non-NII line.

所以就-和財富表現而言，你說大多數非 NII 是 CMB 和 GB&M。我認為也可以公平地說，在 WPB 中，財富業務在第一季度表現良好。與去年第一季度相比，其第一季度的收入增長了 13%。所以我認為喬治所說的是，我認為我們已經看到財富收入正在復蘇。我們不希望這只是第一季度的現象。這將在第二季度、第三季度和第四季度繼續，但現在預測 13% 是年度數字還是高於或低於該數字還為時過早。所以——但我們預計它不會在第二季度、第三季度或第四季度消失。因此，在 WPB-非 NII 行中也應該有一定程度的年化。

With respect to the AGM comment, look, I think we've said for a while that we believe the safest and fastest way to achieve higher returns, better performance, better dividends and capital generation was the existing strategy. I think the Q1 results provides a lot of evidence that, that is the fact that, that is the best way. We guided the market over the last 12 months to a 12%-plus ROTE. I did emphasize at the year-end that we should focus on the plus, not the 12. And I think you see even excluding the notable items, we've done a ROTE of 19.3%. I would just draw attention to the fact that in that ROTE of 19.3%, there is a tax credit, and Georges can probably cover that as well. That tax credit is not something that will repeat every quarter. But even if you adjust for that, it's still a very healthy return on tangible equity. So I think it's in the -- what we're focused on is driving performance on behalf of all our shareholders, and we believe doing what we've done is the best way to get improved returns, improved performance rather than some more radical corporate restructuring action. So we believe Q1 is strong evidence of that. But Georges, do you just want to clarify the tax situation.

關於 AGM 的評論，看，我想我們已經說過一段時間了，我們認為實現更高回報、更好的業績、更好的股息和資本生成的最安全和最快的方法是現有戰略。我認為第一季度的結果提供了很多證據表明，這是最好的方法。在過去的 12 個月裡，我們將市場引導至 12% 以上的 ROTE。我在年底確實強調過，我們應該關注加號，而不是 12。我想你會看到，即使不包括值得注意的項目，我們的 ROTE 也達到了 19.3%。我只想提請注意，在 19.3% 的 ROTE 中，有稅收抵免，Georges 也可能涵蓋這一點。這種稅收抵免不是每個季度都會重複的事情。但即使你對此進行調整，它仍然是一個非常健康的有形資產回報率。所以我認為這是——我們關注的是代表所有股東推動業績，我們相信做我們所做的事情是獲得更高回報、更好業績的最佳方式，而不是一些更激進的公司重組行動。所以我們認為第一季度是有力的證據。但是喬治，你只是想澄清一下稅收情況嗎？

So then we've basically shown $1.9 billion as a tax charge, which is an effective tax rate of 14%, but I just want to caution you that 3.2% relate to the provisional gain on SVB, which is a nontaxable item. And another 3.3% relate to the release of provisions for uncertain tax provisions, which is also a one-off item, so therefore, if you adjusted for those 2, we still expect a 20% ETR guidance for the rest of the year.

所以我們基本上顯示了 19 億美元的稅收，這是 14% 的有效稅率，但我只想提醒你，3.2% 與 SVB 的臨時收益有關，這是一個免稅項目。另外 3.3% 與不確定稅收準備金的釋放有關，這也是一次性項目，因此，如果你對這 2 個進行調整，我們仍然預計今年剩餘時間的 ETR 指導值為 20%。

The next question comes from Andrew Coombs with Citi.

下一個問題來自花旗銀行的 Andrew Coombs。

One strategic question and then 1 numbers question. On the strategic question, if the proposed French retail sale no longer goes ahead, what would be the plan? Would you put it back on the block again? Or would there be a plan to reabsorb it into the broader HSBC Group, is there anything you can say on plans for France, given that sale process and where it's got to. Secondly, on costs, you've actually had a cost print this quarter, you're down 2% year-on-year on a constant currency basis, and yet you're still guiding to 3% cost growth or 4% with SVB U.K. So is this a timing issue? Is it a case of the wage inflation coming through from Q2? Anything you can elaborate there?

一個戰略問題，然後是 1 個數字問題。在戰略問題上，如果擬議的法國零售銷售不再進行，計劃是什麼？你會再把它放回街區嗎？或者是否有將其重新吸收到更廣泛的匯豐集團的計劃，考慮到銷售流程和目標，您對法國的計劃有什麼可以說的嗎？其次，在成本方面，本季度你實際上已經打印了成本，按固定匯率計算，你同比下降了 2%，但你仍然指導 3% 的成本增長或 SVB 的 4%英國 那麼這是一個時間問題嗎？這是第二季度工資上漲的情況嗎？你有什麼可以詳細說明的嗎？

Two good questions, and Georges will cover the second one. I'll cover the first one. I think, listen up, we still believe that a sale of the French retail business is the right strategic outcome, that business probably has a stronger future in another purchaser's hands. However, we have been in discussions for a few weeks now with the current buyer to try and overcome the challenge they have on their acquisition accounting impact on their capital base. We'll continue that dialogue. We're hoping we can reach a mutually agreeable settlement with them on that, but we can't be guaranteed of that outcome. We have to consider what is financially the right decision for all shareholders, and it's hopeful that we can reach an agreement, but it's not guaranteed. In the event we can't, then I still think we'll continue to run the business, but I still think over time, we wouldn't see that as a long-term strategic hold, but we'll have to wait and see what happens thereafter. We're very much focused on trying to reach an agreement with the current buyer to bring that transaction to a close. So that's the update I have for you. On costs, I'll hand over to Georges. Thank you.

兩個好問題，Georges 將討論第二個問題。我將介紹第一個。我想，聽好了，我們仍然相信出售法國零售業務是正確的戰略結果，該業務在另一個買家手中可能會有更美好的未來。然而，我們已經與當前買家進行了數週的討論，以試圖克服他們在收購會計對其資本基礎的影響方面所面臨的挑戰。我們將繼續對話。我們希望我們能就此與他們達成雙方都同意的解決方案，但我們不能保證會出現這樣的結果。我們必須考慮在財務上對所有股東來說什麼是正確的決定，我們希望能夠達成協議，但不能保證。如果我們不能，那麼我仍然認為我們會繼續經營業務，但我仍然認為隨著時間的推移，我們不會將其視為長期戰略持有，但我們必須等待看看之後會發生什麼。我們非常專注於與當前買家達成協議以結束該交易。這就是我為您準備的更新。關於成本，我會交給喬治。謝謝。

Sure. Thank you, Noel, and thank you, Andrew, for the question. So our reported costs on a constant currency basis is down 2% Q1 last year to Q1 this year. If you adjust for notables, and remember, last year Q1, we had $450 million of additional cost due to the CTA program. So if you extract that notable item from last year's base, our reported cost adjusted for notables will show us up 2% Q1 to Q1. This is the basis on which we're measuring ourselves for this year. And it's on that basis where we would -- we are targeting to achieve a 3% annualized number, where we -- our quarter 1 basically is coming in at 2%. Now why from 2% to 3%, I just want to highlight a few things. The first one is we still haven't incurred by and large, the severance costs, which we announced at the year-end and now we expect to incur the majority of it in Q2 this year. And the second element, just to highlight is that some of the pay increases have only been factored partially in Q1, starting March and we'll start kind of being fully factored in from Q2 onwards. And this is why our 3% target for the full year is where it is. And as you said, Andrew, and just for avoidance of any doubt here, the acquired cost of SVB and some of the additional investments we need to do there, will add another 1% to that 3% target.

當然。謝謝 Noel，也謝謝 Andrew 提出的問題。因此，我們報告的按固定匯率計算的成本從去年第一季度到今年第一季度下降了 2%。如果你對知名人士進行調整，請記住，去年第一季度，由於 CTA 計劃，我們有 4.5 億美元的額外成本。因此，如果你從去年的基礎中提取那個值得注意的項目，我們報告的針對知名人士調整的成本將使我們在第一季度到第一季度增長 2%。這是我們今年衡量自己的基礎。正是在這個基礎上，我們的目標是實現 3% 的年化數字，我們的第一季度基本上是 2%。現在為什麼從 2% 到 3%，我只想強調幾件事。第一個是我們總體上還沒有發生遣散費，我們在年底宣布了這一點，現在我們預計將在今年第二季度發生大部分費用。第二個因素，只是要強調的是，從 3 月開始，一些加薪只在第一季度被部分考慮，我們將從第二季度開始全面考慮。這就是為什麼我們全年 3% 的目標實現了。正如你所說，安德魯，為了避免任何疑問，SVB 的收購成本和我們需要在那裡進行的一些額外投資將使 3% 的目標再增加 1%。

So just a couple of additional comments from me. We -- on the -- that reconciliation between the headline reporting number and the cost target, what we're trying to do is be very straightforward and not try and bake in what was our CTA last year into the cost base of this year. So we're adjusting down the prior year reported number for the notable CTA last year. So that the cost target of 3% is on an apples-and-apples basis with the cost base of this year. So we're not looking to take an easy option on that. We think it's the right thing to do, but as we say, we're 2% against the 3% target in Q1. And then on SVB, I just want to clarify as well, the SVB business we bought, we acquired a cost base with that, and we acquired a revenue stream and that revenue stream was in excess of the cost base. So we've acquired a positive P&L that was contributing, if I remember correctly, around about $80 million to $90 million of PBT, so although we've acquired 300 -- sorry, we have acquired -- the majority of the $300 million is the acquired cost base of SVB. It is a profitable cost base.

所以只有我的一些額外評論。我們 - 關於 - 標題報告數字和成本目標之間的協調，我們試圖做的是非常簡單的，而不是試圖將我們去年的 CTA 納入今年的成本基礎。因此，我們正在調整去年著名 CTA 的前一年報告數量。因此，3% 的成本目標是在蘋果和蘋果的基礎上與今年的成本基數相提並論的。因此，我們不希望對此採取簡單的選擇。我們認為這是正確的做法，但正如我們所說，我們在第一季度實現了 3% 的目標 2%。然後在 SVB 上，我也想澄清一下，我們購買的 SVB 業務，我們獲得了成本基礎，我們獲得了收入流，而收入流超過了成本基礎。因此，如果我沒記錯的話，我們已經獲得了積極的損益表，它貢獻了大約 8000 萬到 9000 萬美元的 PBT，所以儘管我們已經獲得了 300 美元——抱歉，我們已經獲得了——3 億美元中的大部分是SVB 的收購成本基礎。這是一個有利可圖的成本基礎。

Andy, just to finish off, we provided a reconciliation on Slide 30 to show you the walk from reported cost to our cost target, and we will be showing this slide every quarter.

安迪，最後，我們在幻燈片 30 上提供了對賬，向您展示從報告的成本到我們的成本目標的過程，我們將每個季度展示這張幻燈片。

Next question comes from Guy Stebbings with BNP Paribas Exane.

下一個問題來自 BNP Paribas Exane 的 Guy Stebbings。

One on net interest margin and one back on SVB. So on NIM, I guess the U.K. ring-fenced bank did quite a lot of heavy lift in this quarter, allowing for 1 basis point of sequential NIM growth. As we look ahead, perhaps that tailwind has faded, at least in quantum. So is that going to make it tricky from here to deliver NIM sustainability? Or is the drop in HBAP and the headwind from deposit mix, in particular, likely to fade in your view to allow for some sort of stable NIM backdrop? And then the second question on SVB. In addition to the acquired cost base, you flagged incremental investment spend and plans to build the business outside the U.K. So could you talk about sort of associated revenue ambitions and what sort of time frame you expect to see any notable uplift there. I mean sort of how big a shift in that $80 million to $90 million PBT reference, could we see of SVB inside and HSBC with that incremental investment?

一個關於淨息差，一個回到 SVB。因此，在 NIM 上，我猜想這家英國環衛銀行在本季度做了很多重大舉措，允許 NIM 連續增長 1 個基點。展望未來，也許順風已經消退，至少在數量上是這樣。那麼，從這裡開始實現 NIM 可持續性是否會變得棘手？或者 HBAP 的下降和存款組合的逆風，特別是在您看來可能會消退，以允許某種穩定的 NIM 背景？然後是關於 SVB 的第二個問題。除了獲得的成本基礎之外，您還標記了增量投資支出併計劃在英國以外建立業務。那麼您能否談談相關的收入雄心以及您希望在那裡看到任何顯著提升的時間框架。我的意思是，8000 萬美元到 9000 萬美元的 PBT 參考值發生了多大的變化，我們能否看到內部 SVB 和匯豐銀行的增量投資？

Okay. Thank you. I'll take the second in a moment. I'll ask Georges to go on the NIM, please, and U.K. ring-fenced bank.

好的。謝謝。我馬上拿第二個。我會請 Georges 繼續使用 NIM，還有英國的 ring-fenced bank。

Sure. Thanks, Noel. Thanks, Guy. So indeed, you did call out the headwinds, the possibility of headwinds in the U.K. Obviously, there may be still 1 or 2 rate hikes for which we will be passing most of that to customers through pass-through rates. And we do see continued headwinds in Hong Kong with around 1% per month migration into term deposit with the mix now at 25% term deposits across both our entities in Hong Kong. This being said, we also have tailwinds. The first one is we still have a strong momentum from Q1, which we're carrying over. The second tailwind is HIBOR normalization. I mean, just for reference, in Hong Kong, HIBOR and exchange fund bills' rates in Q1 were 65 and 35 basis points lower on average than where they were in Q4, and that was a major headwind for us in Q1. We are seeing now over the last few weeks, we have been seeing normalization in those rates. If we continue to see normalization and just for a reminder, we have about 200 basis points of their equivalent rates in dollars. If we continue to see normalization, this will provide us material tailwinds in the Hong Kong base. And the other tailwind is our resilient deposit and loan base, we continue having stable deposits and loans despite the -- some of the competitive pressures, and we continue to aim for mid-single-digit growth in both in the medium term, which should give us some supportive tailwinds.

當然。謝謝，諾埃爾。哥們，謝啦。所以事實上，你確實指出了逆風，英國可能出現逆風。顯然，可能仍有 1 或 2 次加息，我們將通過傳遞率將其中大部分傳遞給客戶。我們確實看到香港持續存在逆風，每月約有 1% 的人轉向定期存款，目前我們在香港的兩個實體的定期存款組合為 25%。話雖這麼說，我們也有順風。第一個是我們仍然擁有第一季度的強勁勢頭，我們正在延續這一勢頭。第二個利好因素是 HIBOR 正常化。我的意思是，僅供參考，在香港，第一季度的 HIBOR 和外匯基金票據利率比第四季度平均低 65 和 35 個基點，這對我們第一季度來說是一個主要的不利因素。我們現在看到，在過去幾周里，我們一直在看到這些利率正常化。如果我們繼續看到正常化，只是為了提醒一下，我們有大約 200 個基點的等值美元匯率。如果我們繼續看到正常化，這將為我們在香港基地提供物質支持。另一個有利因素是我們有彈性的存款和貸款基礎，儘管存在一些競爭壓力，我們仍繼續擁有穩定的存款和貸款，我們繼續以中期實現中個位數增長為目標，這應該給我們一些支持性的順風。

So just to reinforce what we said at the full year results in February, we said to -- we noted the guidance that was in existence when we reported in February, and we said we were not uncomfortable -- sorry, with the consensus that we noted the consensus that was in existence in February. And we said we were not uncomfortable with where consensus was. We still have that view. The only adjustment you need to make to the NII is for the IFRS 17 adjustment. Everything else remains as we said in February, the guidance that existed at that point in time, we were not uncomfortable with it. The same is true today, just adjust for IFRS 17, which is around about a $2 billion adjustment from IFRS 4 to IFRS 17. That's the only change that needs to be made based on what we've given you as an update today.

因此，為了加強我們在 2 月份的全年業績中所說的話，我們說 - 我們注意到我們在 2 月份報告時存在的指導意見，我們說我們並不感到不舒服 - 抱歉，我們達成共識注意到 2 月份存在的共識。我們說我們對達成共識並不感到不安。我們仍然有這種看法。您需要對 NII 進行的唯一調整是針對 IFRS 17 的調整。其他一切都像我們在 2 月份所說的那樣，即當時存在的指導方針，我們對此並不感到不舒服。今天也是如此，只需根據 IFRS 17 進行調整，即從 IFRS 4 到 IFRS 17 的調整約為 20 億美元。這是根據我們今天向您提供的更新內容所做的唯一更改。

And then on SVB, we acquired -- sorry, we recruited 40 people -- over 40 people in the U.S. to build out our SVB capability in the U.S. It will -- we did not bring a book with them, purchaser book. So they will be in build-out mode, so there will be a payback period on that investment. We think it's a relatively short payback period based on the quality of people we've hired. We're looking at other geographies around the world. We think it's a sensible and modest investment to do that organically. And we're pretty confident on the payback. We'll be relatively sure. We'll provide more details once we complete that buildout. Hopefully, by the half year, we'll be able to give you more information. So there will be a profit drag to a degree, probably in the first year or 18 months, but then I think it will be back into profit territory even on those organic build-out strategies. But we'll give more of an update at the half year. I think strategically, it's absolutely the right thing to do for the medium term. This is a sector of the economy that is critical for all geographies and has huge growth potential on revenue.

然後在 SVB 上，我們收購了 - 抱歉，我們招募了 40 人 - 在美國有超過 40 人在美國建立我們的 SVB 能力。它會 - 我們沒有帶書，購買者書。所以他們將處於擴建模式，因此該投資將有一個投資回收期。根據我們僱用的人員的素質，我們認為這是一個相對較短的投資回收期。我們正在關注世界其他地區。我們認為有機地做到這一點是一項明智而適度的投資。我們對回報很有信心。我們會比較確定。完成擴建後，我們將提供更多詳細信息。希望在半年之前，我們能夠為您提供更多信息。因此，可能會在第一年或 18 個月內在一定程度上拖累利潤，但我認為即使在那些有機擴建戰略上，它也會回到利潤領域。但我們會在半年內提供更多更新。我認為從戰略上講，從中期來看，這絕對是正確的做法。這是一個對所有地區都至關重要的經濟部門，具有巨大的收入增長潛力。

The next question comes from Rob Noble with Deutsche Bank.

下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Rob Noble。

Most of the questions have been answered. But if you could just talk about the LCR, it's relatively low in a European context, mostly your deposit base is a different kind of structure. You have been running with that level in the medium term with the uncertainty in the market? And how do you expect the regulation or approach or liquidity to change given what's happened in the U.S.

大多數問題都已得到解答。但如果你可以只談論 LCR，它在歐洲的背景下相對較低，主要是你的存款基礎是一種不同的結構。在市場不確定的情況下，您在中期一直以該水平運行？考慮到美國發生的事情，您預計監管、方法或流動性將如何改變

Georges, do you want to handle that?

喬治，你想處理這個嗎？

Sure. Thank you, Rob. So we don't target LCR. We are continuing to target medium-term single to mid-digit loan growth in our portfolio. And we obviously continue to cherish deposits and attract and continue wanting to attract deposits. The LCR would be an outcome I think insofar that we look at our liquidity management, it's the high-quality liquid assets ratio that we look at is the cash and cash equivalent within it that we look at. And in terms of loans, again, if the short term is somewhat subdued in particular in Hong Kong, in the medium term, some of the bounce back and some of the trade bounce back that we're seeing as well may support that loan growth ambition in the medium term.

當然。謝謝你，羅布。所以我們不針對LCR。我們將繼續以我們的投資組合中的中期個位數到中位數貸款增長為目標。而且我們顯然繼續珍惜存款並吸引並繼續希望吸引存款。 LCR 將是一個結果，我認為只要我們看我們的流動性管理，我們看的高質量流動資產比率就是我們看的現金和現金等價物。同樣，在貸款方面，如果短期有所抑制，尤其是在香港，從中期來看，我們看到的一些反彈和一些貿易反彈可能會支持貸款增長中期的雄心壯志。

And I think on the regulation impact, I think we have to wait and see what the various regulators around the world do on regulation, but I think the way I look at it, the primary responsibility for running a prudent balance sheet is on the management and the board of a financial institution. That's a responsibility we've taken seriously throughout our history. Our high-quality liquid asset has been a feature of our heritage, our high-quality cash and cash equivalents has been a feature of our heritage for many decades. So we have put the primary responsibility on liquidity management on ourselves, and then we'll see what the regulatory environment does as a consequence of some of the recent changes, but thank you.

而且我認為在監管影響方面，我認為我們必須拭目以待，看看世界各地的各個監管機構在監管方面做了什麼，但我認為以我的方式來看，管理審慎資產負債表的主要責任在於管理層和金融機構的董事會。這是我們在整個歷史中一直認真對待的責任。幾十年來，我們的優質流動資產一直是我們傳統的特色，我們的優質現金和現金等價物一直是我們傳統的特色。因此，我們將流動性管理的主要責任放在我們自己身上，然後我們將看到監管環境因最近的一些變化而產生的影響，但謝謝。

Next question is from Aman Rakkar with Barclays.

下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Aman Rakkar。

I just need to come back to revenues. Both your net interest income and your noninterest income are performing really well in Q1 and they are annualizing at levels that would suggest pretty material upside to market expectations for both of those lines. Your net interest income is annualizing north of $36 billion on the Q1 number. Your guide is obviously greater than $34 billion. I appreciate there's lots of moving parts here, but I guess, to be more specific, in terms of your commentary around consensus at full year and now, there's a kind of $1.7 billion gap between where the Street is and what you're guiding for, the Street is $35.7 billion. It doesn't actually sound like you see much downside to that consensus number at $35.7 billion unless there's something here around term deposit mix or -- it feels like there's a lot of conservatism in the NII guidance or there's something I'm missing. So can you help us with that? And then secondly, on the noninterest income, I totally appreciate your markets business might have over-earn in Q1, but you are also pointing towards a wealth management business that's trending higher and underlying momentum in our your fee businesses, you talked about strategic initiatives at full year sit behind that. So to what extent is that revenue number and over-earn? Or is this the kind of level that we can expect you to crank out in the year because this is well ahead of where the Street is? Any color you can give us there would be really helpful.

我只需要回到收入上。你的淨利息收入和非利息收入在第一季度都表現得非常好，而且它們的年化水平表明這兩條線的市場預期都有相當大的上漲空間。第一季度的淨利息收入每年超過 360 億美元。您的指南顯然超過 340 億美元。我很欣賞這裡有很多變化的部分，但我想，更具體地說，就你對全年和現在的共識的評論而言，華爾街的位置和你的指導之間存在 17 億美元的差距，華爾街是 357 億美元。實際上聽起來您並不認為 357 億美元的共識數字有太大的下行空間，除非這裡有一些關於定期存款組合的東西，或者——感覺 NII 指南中有很多保守主義，或者我遺漏了一些東西。那你能幫我們嗎？其次，關於非利息收入，我完全理解您的市場業務在第一季度可能超額收益，但您也指出財富管理業務在我們的收費業務中呈上升趨勢和潛在勢頭，您談到了戰略舉措在全年坐在後面。那麼收入數字和超額收入在多大程度上呢？或者這是我們可以期望您在這一年中達到的那種水平，因為這遠遠領先於華爾街的水平？你能給我們的任何顏色都會很有幫助。

Two good questions. And let me just clarify what I said about -- what we said in February. I think you're right on your math. I think if you go back to what we said in February, there was -- we talked about $36 billion plus. And when people were talking about our NII, they were sort of annualizing it to about $38 billion and the consensus was around $37 billion to $37.5 billion. And I think we said we were comfortable with that. So I think if you go back to then, we sort of said, yes, we're sort of comfortable that consensus had a calculation on the plus bid of the $36 billion. They'll put it sort of north of $37 billion. That was around about consensus back then. And all I'm saying to you now is the only thing you need to adjust for is IFRS 17, which takes about $2 billion off of that. So we're talking about $34 billion plus and that, therefore, would put you north of $35 billion. So I think what we're saying is there should -- we're sort of saying the Street has probably got NII around about the right place back in February of last year. And we're saying there's no need to change what the Street is. You only got to do the mechanical adjustment for IFRS 17. Hopefully, that helps. And then, Georges, I think do you want to just come back on the non-NII, because I think -- you're right, there's elements of our non-NII performance in Q1. So Georges is saying annualized. There are just some elements that are saying it may be unwise to annualize them fully for some of the trading income. But Georges, do you just want to reclarify what you said.

兩個好問題。讓我澄清一下我所說的——我們在二月份所說的。我認為你的數學是正確的。我想如果你回到我們 2 月份所說的話，我們談到了 360 億美元以上。當人們談論我們的 NII 時，他們將其年化為約 380 億美元，而共識是在 370 億至 375 億美元之間。我想我們說過我們對此感到滿意。所以我認為，如果你回到那時，我們會說，是的，我們對共識計算出 360 億美元的加價感到滿意。他們會把它放在 370 億美元以上。那是關於當時的共識。我現在要對你說的是，你唯一需要調整的是 IFRS 17，它從中扣除了大約 20 億美元。所以我們談論的是 340 億美元以上，因此，這將使您超過 350 億美元。所以我認為我們所說的是應該——我們有點說華爾街可能在去年 2 月就把 NII 放在了正確的位置。我們說沒有必要改變街道的樣子。您只需為 IFRS 17 進行機械調整。希望這會有所幫助。然後，Georges，我想你想回到非 NII 上嗎，因為我認為 - 你是對的，我們在第一季度的非 NII 表現中有一些元素。所以喬治說的是年度化。只是有一些因素表明，將它們的某些交易收入完全年化可能是不明智的。但是喬治，你只是想重新澄清一下你說的話。

Sure, Noel. So Aman if I kind of unpack the non-NII, some of the outperformance that we've seen with regards to funding of the trading book, where we've seen $1.4 billion this quarter against $0.1 billion quarter 1 last year because rates were at 0, but against $1.3 billion quarter 4, so somewhat flat to just slightly up from quarter 4. That number is -- it is fair to annualize it given current rate forecast consensus. Equally, as Noel mentioned earlier, the discussion on wealth, the growth in NNIA in wealth, the resumption of activity in Hong Kong, in particular, bodes well for the future. And I think it is fair to assume that we will see continued performance in wealth. On the other hand, some of the outperformance in some of the market activities such as foreign exchange trading, which had a record quarter, may -- it may not be repeated. And obviously, we will have to look at it quarter-by-quarter in terms of what the business opportunities are there. And while you can bake in and factor in the results, the Q1 outperformance, I would caution you not to annualize that outperformance, but in general, if I take a step back, it is a good set of results and we are confident about the future. And in light of the strong Q1 performance, we will have to review and we will review the guidance in H1.

當然，諾埃爾。所以阿曼，如果我有點拆開非 NII，我們在交易賬戶的資金方面看到了一些出色的表現，我們看到本季度有 14 億美元，而去年第一季度為 1 億美元，因為利率在0，但與第 4 季度的 13 億美元相比，與第 4 季度相比略微持平。這個數字是——考慮到當前的利率預測共識，將其年化是公平的。同樣，正如諾埃爾之前提到的，關於財富的討論，NNIA 財富的增長，特別是香港活動的恢復，預示著未來的好兆頭。我認為可以公平地假設我們將看到財富的持續表現。另一方面，在某些市場活動中表現出色，例如創紀錄的季度外匯交易，可能不會重演。很明顯，我們將不得不逐季審視那裡的商機。雖然你可以考慮並考慮結果，即第一季度的出色表現，但我會提醒你不要將這種出色表現年化，但總的來說，如果我退後一步，這是一組很好的結果，我們對未來。鑑於第一季度的強勁表現，我們將不得不審查，我們將審查上半年的指導。

That comes from Martin Leitgeb with Goldman Sachs.

這來自高盛的 Martin Leitgeb。

First of all, congratulations with this good set of results. I just have one broader question on growth and one follow-up on deposits, please. Just looking at the much improved profitability levels of the group, with now NII being around $2 billion to $3 billion of the quarter, this great capacity to scale up growth. And I was just wondering if we look into the medium term or starting '24. Do you see the scope for the group to lean more into growth so that mid-single-digit loan growth could potentially be higher? Or should we just think that any increase in profitability could be essentially a return to shareholders just in terms of the trade-off between opportunity for growing more versus shareholder return. And secondly, with regards to the deposit trends. I was just wondering if you could comment on this strength of HSBC deposit franchise during the quarter. Have you seen, in particular, inflows in certain parts of your footprint helping delivering that stable deposit strength in the quarter. And it was also wondering with regards to deposit migration part of CASA into time, whether you have seen any change in trend. If this -- are we towards the end of that cycle in terms of deposit migration? Or could this still go on for a number of quarters?

首先，祝賀這組好成績。我只有一個關於增長的更廣泛的問題和一個關於存款的後續問題。看看集團的盈利水平大大提高，現在 NII 在本季度約為 20 億至 30 億美元，這是擴大增長的巨大能力。我只是想知道我們是要研究中期還是從 24 年開始。您是否看到該集團更多地傾向於增長的範圍，以便中等個位數的貸款增長可能更高？或者我們是否應該認為，盈利能力的任何增加本質上都是對股東的回報，只是在增長機會與股東回報之間進行權衡。其次，關於存款趨勢。我只是想知道您是否可以評論本季度匯豐銀行存款業務的實力。您是否特別看到您足跡某些部分的資金流入有助於在本季度提供穩定的存款實力。它也想知道關於 CASA 的存款遷移部分到時間，您是否看到趨勢有任何變化。如果這樣——就存款遷移而言，我們是否即將結束該週期？或者這種情況還會持續幾個季度嗎？

Okay. Just a couple of comments. One comment from me on growth. Listen, I think, clearly, we want to pursue growth, but I think we have the capacity in our dividend payout ratio of 50% to pursue growth and with the option of doing buybacks as well. Now at the moment, I think we've seen a relatively subdued lending market in corporate banking. I think the demand for term loans around the world is not particularly high at the moment and probably isn't going to be particularly high in the very near term. As Georges said earlier, I mean, once we get to 2024, one would expect there to be an increase in demand starting to emerge. But for the near term, for the next few months in '23, given the economic uncertainty, we're seeing subdued loan demand. So I think the message I'd give you, in a 50% payout ratio world, we believe the second 50% after we pay the dividend, there is potential to fund both growth and buybacks. And that's our plans going forward. Georges, do you want to just cover the deposit trend, the inflows, the outflows and deposit migration.

好的。只是一些評論。我對增長的評論。聽著，我想，很明顯，我們想要追求增長，但我認為我們有能力以 50% 的股息支付率來追求增長，也可以選擇回購。現在，我認為我們已經看到企業銀行業務的貸款市場相對低迷。我認為目前全球對定期貸款的需求並不是特別高，並且在短期內可能不會特別高。正如 Georges 之前所說，我的意思是，一旦我們到了 2024 年，人們就會預計需求會開始出現增長。但就近期而言，考慮到經濟的不確定性，在 23 年接下來的幾個月裡，我們看到貸款需求低迷。所以我想我要給你的信息是，在 50% 的派息率世界中，我們相信在我們支付股息後的第二個 50%，有可能為增長和回購提供資金。這就是我們未來的計劃。 Georges，你想只介紹存款趨勢、流入、流出和存款遷移嗎？

Sure, Martin. So yes I mean, if I start with some of the outflows that we're seeing and then I go into the tailwind. So some of the outflows we're seeing particularly in the U.K., so obviously, U.K. retail, Q1 is a tax payment period. So there is seasonality here. We are still seeing high cost of living resilient inflation in the U.K., which is obviously draining some of the U.K. consumers' savings, with to a lesser extent, competitive pressure as well in the U.K. Likewise, for corporates in the U.K., Q4 was at year-end where people showed up their liquidity, whereas Q1, most of the companies pay dividend. And then you can see some of the draining liquidity, we're also seeing deleveraging of loans using some of the deposits to deleverage on the loan side, especially for those with a strong rate differential between what they're paying on their loans. This being said, we continue to see growth and strength in the deposit proposition. So if I take Hong Kong and all of Asia, actually, we've seen definite deposit growth in the retail and the personnel banking space. We have seen 5% growth of our deposit base in Commercial Banking in the U.S. So we were one of the beneficiary banks of the deposit migration from medium-sized banks into large banks. And we obviously continue to cherish our propositions and deposits to continue attracting deposits at the right price.

當然，馬丁。所以是的，我的意思是，如果我從我們看到的一些資金流出開始，然後我順風順水。因此，我們看到的一些資金外流，尤其是在英國，很明顯，英國零售業，第一季度是納稅期。所以這裡有季節性。我們仍然看到英國的高生活成本和彈性通脹，這顯然正在耗盡英國消費者的部分儲蓄，在較小程度上，英國的競爭壓力也是如此。同樣，對於英國的企業來說，第四季度是人們出現流動性的年底，而第一季度，大多數公司支付股息。然後你會看到一些流動性正在流失，我們也看到貸款去槓桿化使用一些存款來去槓桿化貸款方面，特別是對於那些與他們支付的貸款之間存在很大利率差異的人。話雖這麼說，我們繼續看到存款提議的增長和實力。因此，如果我拿香港和整個亞洲來說，實際上，我們已經看到零售和人事銀行業務領域的存款明顯增長。我們看到美國商業銀行的存款基礎增長了 5%，因此我們是存款從中型銀行轉移到大型銀行的受益銀行之一。我們顯然會繼續珍惜我們的主張和存款，以繼續以合適的價格吸引存款。

We will take our last question today from Tom Rayner with Numis.

今天我們將與 Numis 一起接受 Tom Rayner 的最後一個問題。

Two, please. First one, just on the loan growth. I mean, you flagged the corporate demand and maybe that is the answer. I was just going to ask, could you quite upbeat on the economic recovery you're seeing now in Hong Kong and China and the U.K., I think you said it was quite resilient. So is there any other reason why you're so sort of cautious in the short term on loan growth? Or is it purely a lack of demand from corporate? And a second question on costs, please.

兩個，請。第一個，關於貸款增長。我的意思是，你標記了企業需求，也許這就是答案。我只是想問，你能不能對你現在在香港、中國和英國看到的經濟復甦持樂觀態度，我想你說過它很有彈性。那麼還有什麼其他原因可以解釋為什麼您在短期內對貸款增長如此謹慎？還是純粹是企業需求不足？關於成本的第二個問題，請。

Okay. What's your question on costs? Do you want to -- yes.

好的。你對成本有什麼問題？你想——是的。

Yes. I mean really, it's sort of looking at 3% target for this year and thinking forward to next year because I guess you're still enjoying some of the flow-through this year from cost savings from the previous cost program, which has now ended. So I just wondered if you or Georges, would comment on your sort of approach towards costs in 2024, whether you'll be thinking in terms of an absolute growth may be similar to this year or whether a jaws approach might be more appropriate. I don't know if there's anything -- any color you could add for the next year.

是的。我的意思是真的，它有點看今年 3% 的目標並考慮明年，因為我猜你今年仍然享受從以前的成本計劃中節省的成本帶來的一些流動，現在已經結束.所以我只是想知道你或喬治是否會評論你在 2024 年對成本採取的那種方法，你是否會考慮絕對增長可能與今年相似，或者下巴方法是否更合適。我不知道明年是否可以添加任何顏色。

Just on loan growth, listen, I think your point is a fair one. I think if there is a place where I think loan growth could pick up more in the near term, I think it would be Asia. I think Middle East is another option. So I think I am being a bit cautious on the near-term loan growth. I think probably it will start to emerge more in the working capital side of the balance sheet, trade finance, before people start investing in fixed capital. But I think there is a level of nervousness out there in the corporate world about taking long-term investment decisions in fixed capital, that is aside from sustainability. I think there's a lot of infrastructure spend taking place, and I could see some loan growth coming in and around that sustainable infrastructure investment. So maybe I am being a bit cautious on loan growth at the moment. I think I'd rather be that way in the near term. But I don't think -- I do believe there's going to be medium-term loan growth. But I think it is fair to say that Asia has the potential to pick up faster than elsewhere in the world. So yes, I think it may be fair that I'm being a bit cautious.

就貸款增長而言，聽著，我認為你的觀點是公平的。我認為，如果有一個地方我認為短期內貸款增長可能會更快，我認為那將是亞洲。我認為中東是另一種選擇。所以我認為我對近期貸款增長持謹慎態度。我認為在人們開始投資固定資本之前，它可能會更多地出現在資產負債表的營運資本方面，貿易融資。但我認為，除了可持續性之外，企業界對固定資本的長期投資決策存在一定程度的緊張。我認為有很多基礎設施支出發生，我可以看到一些貸款增長來自可持續基礎設施投資。因此，也許我目前對貸款增長持謹慎態度。我想我寧願在短期內那樣做。但我不認為 - 我確實相信中期貸款會增長。但我認為可以公平地說，亞洲有可能比世界其他地方更快地回升。所以是的，我認為我有點謹慎可能是公平的。

If I kind of just adding to Noel's comments, Tom, if you look at Hong Kong, in the retail space, both cards and mortgages have been growing in the first quarter. Even in the U.K., we are seeing green shoots in the mortgage sector. I mean, our market share in the mortgage sector in the U.K. for the first 2 months of the year is that 15%, that's for new business. That's against the book market share of about 7.5% and the Q4 new business market share of 9%. So we're certainly there in the retail space where we're seeing growth. On the wholesale side, I just want to add 1 comment to Noel's description, which is also bear in mind the rate differential between China and Hong Kong. So all those Chinese companies who used to use Hong Kong as a base for raising funding internationally will be less doing so as long as the rate differential between dollar rates and onshore China rate are that wide. It is cheaper for these corporates to raise funding in Mainland China as opposed to Hong Kong, and that will remain the case up until the time we see a reversal in that rate trend.

如果我只是補充諾埃爾的評論，湯姆，如果你看看香港，在零售領域，第一季度信用卡和抵押貸款都在增長。即使在英國，我們也看到了抵押貸款行業的萌芽。我的意思是，今年前兩個月我們在英國抵押貸款行業的市場份額為 15%，這是針對新業務的。這與約 7.5% 的圖書市場份額和 9% 的第四季度新業務市場份額形成鮮明對比。所以我們肯定在我們看到增長的零售領域。在批發方面，我只想對 Noel 的描述添加 1 條評論，這也是要記住中國和香港之間的費率差異。因此，只要美元匯率與在岸中國匯率之間的利差如此之大，所有那些曾經將香港作為在國際上籌集資金的基地的中國公司都會減少這樣做。與香港相比，這些公司在中國大陸籌集資金的成本更低，而且這種情況將一直持續到我們看到該利率趨勢出現逆轉為止。

If I move to your second question, Tom, we have not shared targets for 2024 as yet, but the few guiding principles I can share with you, the first guiding principle, paramount guiding principal is that you should expect our focus on cost discipline to continue. The second guiding principle is that we will continue doing transformation and restructuring as part of our BAU cost base and expect some of those sales to flow through also into 2024 and beyond. And case in point is the spend on severance, which we're planning now to do in Q2 this year for which the benefit will flow through mostly in 2024. And thirdly, at this stage, we're still looking to guide towards a dollar cost number as opposed to Joe's in the way we will be looking at 2024 as we come to be able to give you additional guidance later in the year.

湯姆，如果我轉向你的第二個問題，我們還沒有分享 2024 年的目標，但我可以與你分享的幾個指導原則，第一個指導原則，最重要的指導原則是你應該期望我們對成本紀律的關注繼續。第二個指導原則是，我們將繼續進行轉型和重組，作為我們 BAU 成本基礎的一部分，並預計其中一些銷售額也將流入 2024 年及以後。一個典型的例子是遣散費支出，我們現在計劃在今年第二季度進行，為此收益將主要在 2024 年流出。第三，在這個階段，我們仍在尋求指導 1 美元與 Joe 的成本數字相比，我們將以我們看待 2024 年的方式，因為我們能夠在今年晚些時候為您提供額外的指導。

So thank you all for your questions. Really appreciate you taking the time to close our first quarter results, I just want to say that the first quarter results provide further evidence that our strategy is working. We had a strong first quarter profit performance. Cost discipline remains tight, and we're clearly on track to deliver our ROTE target. We've resumed quarterly dividends and announced a share buyback of up to $2 billion, but I'm also confident about the rest of 2023. We built a strong platform for future growth and our geographical footprint puts us in areas of high growth. I look forward to speaking with you soon. Have a good morning or afternoon. Thank you.

謝謝大家的提問。非常感謝您抽出寶貴時間來結束我們的第一季度業績，我只想說，第一季度業績進一步證明了我們的戰略正在奏效。我們第一季度的利潤表現強勁。成本紀律仍然很嚴格，我們顯然有望實現我們的 ROTE 目標。我們已經恢復季度派息，並宣布回購高達 20 億美元的股票，但我對 2023 年剩餘時間也充滿信心。我們為未來的增長建立了一個強大的平台，我們的地理足跡使我們處於高增長領域。我期待著盡快與您交談。祝你早上好或下午好。謝謝。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. That concludes the call for HSBC Holdings plc Q1 2023 results. You may now disconnect.

謝謝你們，女士們，先生們。匯豐控股有限公司 2023 年第一季度業績的徵集到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。