滙豐控股 (HSBC) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

內容摘要

Fais Yousaf、Greg Case 和 Mark Phin 討論了該公司 2023 年強勁的財務業績,包括創紀錄的利潤、收入和股本回報率。他們強調了收購、銷售和資本狀況,以及回購計畫。

演講者討論了有關遺留工具、資本產生和存款趨勢的問題,強調了監管合規性和利益相關者的公平待遇。他們還討論了發行計劃、槓桿、房地產風險和市場利率影響。

電話會議最後重點討論了財務表現、風險前景以及對參與者的感謝。

完整原文

使用警語:中文譯文來源為 Google 翻譯,僅供參考,實際內容請以英文原文為主

  • Faisal Yousaf - Group Treasurer

    Faisal Yousaf - Group Treasurer

  • Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us. I'm Fais Yousaf, Group Treasurer; and I'm joined by Greg Case, Head of Debt Investor Relations; and Mark Phin, Head of Equity Investor Relations. I'll keep my opening remarks relatively brief as I'm sure you've had a chance to go through the results over the course of the day. There is also a comprehensive deck for fixed income investors available on our website, and we'll flash up a few selected slides as I talk. Once I'm finished, we'll go straight to Q&A.

    大家好。感謝您加入我們。我是 Fais Yousaf,集團財務主管;債務投資者關係主管 Greg Case 也加入其中;以及股權投資者關係主管 Mark Phin。我的開場白將保持相對簡短,因為我確信您已經有機會在一天中了解結果。我們的網站上也提供了針對固定收益投資者的綜合資料,在我講話時我們將展示一些精選的幻燈片。完成後,我們將直接進入問答環節。

  • So today, we announced a good set of underlying fourth quarter results and record full year profit before tax of $30.3 billion. 2023 reported revenue was $66.1 billion driven by supportive interest rates and underlying business growth.

    今天,我們公佈了一系列出色的第四季度基本業績,並創下了 303 億美元的全年稅前利潤記錄。受支持性利率和基本業務成長的推動,2023 年報告營收為 661 億美元。

  • The return on average tangible equity for 2023 was 14.6%. We returned $19 billion to shareholders, and we've announced a further up to $2 billion buyback to be completed ahead of 1Q results. We continue to target mid-teens RoTE for 2024.

    2023 年平均有形資產報酬率為 14.6%。我們向股東返還 190 億美元,並宣布將在第一季業績公佈前完成高達 20 億美元的回購。我們繼續將 2024 年的 RoTE 目標定為 15 歲左右。

  • During the year, we acquired what was SVB UK, which has enabled us to build our global innovation banking proposition. We also completed the sale of our French retail business on the 1st of January this year. And following approval from the Canadian government, the sale of our Canadian business is on track to complete in Q1.

    在這一年中,我們收購了 SVB UK,這使我們能夠建立全球創新銀行業務。我們也於今年 1 月 1 日完成了法國零售業務的出售。在獲得加拿大政府批准後,我們加拿大業務的出售預計將在第一季完成。

  • We are mindful of where we are in the interest rate cycle. As such, we have been and will continue to be focused on lowering our earnings sensitivity through hedging, driving growth in non-interest income and, of course, cost discipline.

    我們注意到我們處於利率週期的哪個位置。因此,我們一直並將繼續致力於透過對沖、推動非利息收入成長以及成本控制來降低獲利敏感性。

  • Moving to the quarterly view briefly. In the fourth quarter, revenue was $13 billion. Our underlying profit before tax was impacted by $5.8 billion of notable items and $0.5 billion related to hyperinflation in Argentina. The notable items largely consisted of the re-recognition of an impairment related to the sale of our French retail business and the impairment of our stake in Bank of Communications or BoCom.

    簡單地轉向季度視圖。第四季營收為 130 億美元。我們的稅前基本利潤受到 58 億美元的顯著項目和 5 億美元與阿根廷惡性通貨膨脹相關的影響。值得注意的項目主要包括重新確認與出售法國零售業務相關的減損以及我們所持交通銀行或交通銀行股權的減損。

  • Turning to credit quality. For the full year, the ECL charge was $3.4 billion or 33 basis points. As we look out to 2024, we expect our cost of risk to be at around 40 basis points given the ongoing macro uncertainty. For Mainland China CRE, the full year ECL charge on the portfolio was $1 billion, in line with the full year plausible downside scenario that we set out last February. Our main focus with respect to this portfolio remains the Mainland China CRE portfolio booked in Hong Kong, which has reduced by $3.1 billion in 2023 overall and now sits at $6.3 billion gross with provisions of $1.8 billion against it.

    轉向信用品質。全年的預期信用損失費用為 34 億美元,即 33 個基點。展望 2024 年,鑑於持續的宏觀不確定性,我們預計風險成本將在 40 個基點左右。對於中國內地華商創業來說,投資組合的全年預期信用損失費用為 10 億美元,與我們去年 2 月提出的全年合理下行情境相符。我們對該投資組合的主要關注點仍然是在香港登記的中國大陸商業房地產投資組合,該投資組合在 2023 年總體減少了 31 億美元,目前總額為 63 億美元,撥備為 18 億美元。

  • Turning to structural hedging. Our banking NII sensitivity to a 100 basis point down shock is $3.4 billion. This has reduced by just over 50% since June 2022 with more than 1/3 of this due to structural interest rate hedging. Our structural hedge size and duration has increased during the year. The hedge has a weighted average life of 2.8 years and subject to market conditions, we expect to increase the notional and duration further in 2024.

    轉向結構性對沖。我們的銀行業 NII 對 100 個基點下跌衝擊的敏感度為 34 億美元。自 2022 年 6 月以來,這一數字已減少了 50% 多一點,其中超過 1/3 是由於結構性利率對沖所致。我們的結構性對沖規模和期限在這一年中有所增加。此對沖的加權平均期限為 2.8 年,根據市場狀況,我們預計 2024 年將進一步增加名目期限和久期。

  • As part of our structural hedging activity, we took $1 billion of treasury disposal losses in 2023 for risk management purposes. The replacement hedges a longer duration with a higher yield.

    作為結構性對沖活動的一部分,出於風險管理目的,我們在 2023 年承受了 10 億美元的資金處置損失。替代對沖期限較長,收益率較高。

  • Now moving on to balance sheet and issuance. Firstly, a few words on our capital position. Our CET1 ratio remained strong at 14.8%, up 0.6 percentage points in 2023 and broadly stable in the fourth quarter. At the end of the quarter, we were $31 billion or 3.6 percentage points above our MDA level, which was 11.2%.

    現在轉向資產負債表和發行。首先,簡單介紹一下我們的資本狀況。我們的 CET1 比率保持在 14.8% 的強勁水平,2023 年上升 0.6 個百分點,第四季基本穩定。截至本季末,我們的 MDA 水準(即 11.2%)達到了 310 億美元,即 3.6 個百分點。

  • During the year, we generated 1 percentage point of capital through earnings after making shareholder distributions of 0.9 percentage points. The group remains highly capital-generative.

    年內,我們在進行0.9個百分點的股東分配後,透過獲利產生了1個百分點的資本。該集團仍然具有高度的資本創造能力。

  • The impairment of BoCom had no significant impact on our CET1 ratio, and we expect the sale of our Canadian business to add 1.2 percentage points to the ratio on completion in the first quarter of this year. Our CET1 planned operating range remains 14% to 14.5%. I'd expect our CET1 ratio to remain above this range for the next few quarters given the disposal of Canada.

    交通銀行的減損對我們的CET1比率沒有重大影響,我們預期加拿大業務的出售將使今年第一季完成的比率增加1.2個百分點。我們的 CET1 計畫營運範圍仍為 14% 至 14.5%。鑑於加拿大的處置,我預計我們的 CET1 比率在未來幾季將保持在該範圍之上。

  • Our MREL ratio was 31.6% of RWAs, 4.9 percentage points above our requirements, and we expect to maintain a prudent buffer. The group retained strong levels of liquidity with a well-diversified deposit base. We have a total deposit base of $1.6 trillion, and our loan-to-deposit ratio is 58%.

    我們的 MREL 比率為 RWA 的 31.6%,比我們的要求高出 4.9 個百分點,我們預計將保持審慎的緩衝。該集團憑藉著多元化的存款基礎,維持了強勁的流動性水準。我們的存款基礎總額為 1.6 兆美元,貸存比率為 58%。

  • We hold $0.8 trillion in high-quality liquid assets, and the group LCR rose 4 percentage points to 136% in the year. I would highlight here that the consolidated LCR is calculated using conservative assumptions. Our major subsidiaries all operate LCRs that are significantly higher than the consolidated level.

    我們持有0.8兆美元優質流動資產,集團LCR年內上升4個百分點至136%。我要在此強調的是,綜合 LCR 是使用保守假設計算的。我們主要子公司的LCR均顯著高於合併水準。

  • Finally, moving on to issuance and starting with HoldCo senior. This year's plan is lower than our usual run rate with negative net issuance likely. We see gross issuance of less than $10 billion against maturities and calls of around $12 billion. We would expect to be closer to previous year's issuance levels in 2025 and beyond. I'd also note that last year, we reduced our reliance on the U.S. dollar market with around 60% of our senior HoldCo being in U.S. dollars compared to around 80% historically.

    最後,繼續發行,並從 HoldCo 高級成員開始。今年的計劃低於我們通常的運行速度,淨發行量可能為負。我們預計到期債券發行總額不到 100 億美元,贖回債券發行總額約 120 億美元。我們預計 2025 年及以後的發行水準將更接近去年的發行水準。我還想指出的是,去年我們減少了對美元市場的依賴,大約 60% 的高級控股公司以美元計價,而歷史上這一比例約為 80%。

  • For Tier 2, we expect to issue $2 billion to $3 billion gross in 2024 against $2 billion of maturities. This will broadly be half of the amount we issued in 2023. With respect to AT1, we have modest needs this year, particularly given our anticipated excess CET1 position. At this stage, we plan to issue around $2 billion of gross AT1, but we'll keep this under evaluation over the course of the year. We have just over $2 billion of AT1 with available call options in 2024.

    對於二級市場,我們預計 2024 年將發行總額 20 億至 30 億美元的債券,期限為 20 億美元。這大致將是我們 2023 年發行量​​的一半。就 AT1 而言,我們今年的需求不大,特別是考慮到我們預期的 CET1 部位過剩。現階段,我們計劃發行總額約 20 億美元的 AT1,但我們將在今年內對其進行評估。我們有超過 20 億美元的 AT1 可供 2024 年看漲期權。

  • So in summary, a good year with record profitability, mid-teens return on tangible equity and $19 billion of returns to shareholders. Our capital position is strong with good capital generation through earnings. We maintain prudent funding and liquidity positions, and we have modest issuance needs in 2024. We're confident about the future having built a business model that provides balanced growth, good returns with improved stability.

    總而言之,這是一個美好的一年,獲利創紀錄,有形股本回報率達到 10 左右,股東回報達到 190 億美元。我們的資本狀況雄厚,透過收益產生良好的資本。我們保持審慎的資金和流動性頭寸,2024年的發行需求適度。我們對未來充滿信心,建立了一個成長均衡、回報良好、穩定性提高的商業模式。

  • On that note, let's open the call up for Q&A. Greg?

    就此而言,讓我們開始進行問答。格雷格?

  • Gregory Case - Head of Fixed Income IR

    Gregory Case - Head of Fixed Income IR

  • Thanks, Fais. So if you'd like to signal for question, please use the raise your hand function in Zoom and then we'll ask you to meet your line. I'm afraid, as I did note in my e-mails, we won't be able to take calls from people who've dialed in via the phones. So if you'd like to ask a question, please do e-mail me directly, and I'll happily read that out. So in the meantime, while we wait for people to signal for questions, we have a first question submitted from Tom Jenkins at Jefferies.

    謝謝,費斯。因此,如果您想示意提問,請使用 Zoom 中的舉手功能,然後我們會請您排隊。恐怕,正如我在電子郵件中指出的那樣,我們將無法接聽透過電話撥入的人的電話。因此,如果您想問問題,請直接給我發電子郵件,我很樂意閱讀。因此,與此同時,當我們等待人們提出問題時,我們收到了傑富瑞 (Jefferies) 的湯姆·詹金斯 (Tom Jenkins) 提交的第一個問題。

  • Tom asks, when are you going to address your legacy Tier 1, specifically the sterling [5.844s] and the dollar [10.176s?]

    湯姆問,您什麼時候要解決您的遺留第一級問題,特別是英鎊 [5.844s] 和美元 [10.176s?]

  • Faisal Yousaf - Group Treasurer

    Faisal Yousaf - Group Treasurer

  • Okay. Thank you, Tom. So probably there are a few different dimensions I'd like to cover here. I guess to start with, as we've said before, we are in active dialogue with our regulators on our legacy stack. And I would say there was a good understanding on both sides. As you know, the Bank of England expect firms to take what they describe as appropriate and proportionate steps to reduce legacy instruments, and that's very much in line with our own strategy.

    好的。謝謝你,湯姆。因此,我可能想在這裡介紹幾個不同的維度。我想首先,正如我們之前所說,我們正在與監管機構就我們的遺留堆疊進行積極對話。我想說雙方都有很好的理解。如您所知,英格蘭銀行希望企業採取他們所說的適當和相稱的措施來減少遺留工具,這非常符合我們自己的策略。

  • We have made some progress over the past couple of years -- or 2 or 3 years, I would say, reducing the balance by over $6 billion. There's a slide in the deck that gives you a bit more detail on that. But nevertheless, we still have around $9 billion remaining. And this is something that I'm very focused on trying to address.

    我們在過去幾年——或者我想說的兩三年——中取得了一些進展,減少了超過 60 億美元的餘額。甲板上有一張幻燈片,可以為您提供更多詳細資訊。但儘管如此,我們仍然剩下大約 90 億美元。這是我非常致力於解決的問題。

  • To talk a little bit about the way we think about prioritizing this legacy stack, there are various factors we take into account. And I guess, in that particular order, one of the first things we look at is assessing the complexity and the options to resolve legacy instruments. We'd obviously look at the economics and the size of the issuance and think about pursuing fair treatment for bondholders and shareholders alike. And obviously, the regulatory guidance comes into that. And that's what's really influenced the priority order that we look at this stuff in.

    為了談談我們考慮優先考慮這個遺留堆疊的方式,我們考慮了多種因素。我想,按照這個特定的順序,我們首先考慮的事情之一是評估解決遺留工具的複雜性和選項。我們顯然會考慮經濟狀況和發行規模,並考慮為債券持有人和股東爭取公平待遇。顯然,監管指南也涉及其中。這才是真正影響我們查看這些內容的優先順序的因素。

  • So that's kind of a general view on our approach. But specifically, I guess, Tom, to your question, I can't share at this point any specifics about instruments and what we intend to do. But I think it's reasonable to assume that in the case that you described, some of the problems are likely to be down to complexity involved, maybe the legal conditions, timing and costs. And as I said earlier, we're really looking at reasonable and proportionate steps where we can.

    這是對我們方法的總體看法。但具體來說,我想,湯姆,對於你的問題,我目前無法分享有關儀器和我們打算做什麼的任何細節。但我認為可以合理地假設,在你所描述的情況下,一些問題可能歸因於所涉及的複雜性,也許是法律條件、時間安排和成本。正如我之前所說,我們確實正在盡可能地尋求合理且相稱的步驟。

  • On the make-whole calls specifically, we've not taken action yet. And as you know, it's been over 2 years since the conditions allowed us to. So you can probably assume that it's just not conducive at this point to take those actions. Hopefully, that addresses your question.

    具體來說,對於 make-whole 調用,我們還沒有採取行動。如您所知,自從條件允許以來,我們已經兩年多了。因此,您可能會認為此時採取這些行動並不有利。希望這能解決您的問題。

  • Gregory Case - Head of Fixed Income IR

    Gregory Case - Head of Fixed Income IR

  • Thanks, Fais. So the first question comes from the line of Robert Smalley at UBS.

    謝謝,費斯。第一個問題來自瑞銀集團的羅伯特‧史莫利。

  • Robert Louis Smalley - MD, Head of Credit Desk Analyst Group and Strategist

    Robert Louis Smalley - MD, Head of Credit Desk Analyst Group and Strategist

  • A couple of questions. First, on capital generation, and I'm going kind of back and forth between presentations. But it looks like you generated about 1% CET1 or did in the past year. 25 basis points per quarter or so, it's a little lumpy. But do you think that's the right run rate there, number one?

    有幾個問題。首先,關於資本生成,我將在演講之間來回討論。但看起來您在過去一年中獲得了大約 1% 的 CET1。每季25個基點左右,有點波動。但你認為第一,這是正確的運行率嗎?

  • Number two, with respect to putting that into dividends and buybacks, it seems like you used about half your generated capital to do that. Is that a good metric to look at?

    第二,關於將其投入股息和回購,似乎您使用了大約一半的生成資本來做到這一點。這是一個值得關注的好指標嗎?

  • And then on the U.K. Ring-Fenced Bank, RoTE for the year, over 28%. Could you talk about the performance there? You've had an abundance of deposits there that you've deployed both in mortgages and now it appears more penetration for large corporates. Could you talk about some of the wins that you've had there and how you see the business going forward, how you're going to maintain margins and how you see asset quality development?

    然後是英國環形銀行,當年的 RoTE 超過 28%。能談談那裡的表演嗎?你在那裡擁有大量存款,並已將其用於抵押貸款,現在似乎對大企業的滲透率更高。您能否談談您在那裡取得的一些勝利以及您如何看待業務的未來發展,您將如何保持利潤率以及您如何看待資產品質的發展?

  • Faisal Yousaf - Group Treasurer

    Faisal Yousaf - Group Treasurer

  • Okay. Thanks, Rob. Quite a few questions there. I'll try to address them. So first of all, on the capital generation piece, yes, as you say, I think I quoted in my prepared notes that we see 1% capital generation. But that was after dividends and buybacks. And so the capital generation is in excess of that year-on-year at the moment given where we are. So I think that's worth bearing in mind.

    好的。謝謝,羅布。那裡有不少問題。我會盡力解決他們的問題。首先,關於資本生成部分,是的,正如你所說,我想我在準備好的筆記中引用了我們看到 1% 的資本生成。但那是在股息和回購之後。因此,考慮到我們目前的情況,目前的資本產生量比去年同期要多。所以我認為這一點值得牢記。

  • You're right, though, in terms of your math on the 25 basis points. It is 25 basis points per quarter at $2 billion buyback. So we did $7 billion of buyback in 2023, and we just announced a further $2 billion for this quarter. So overall, on the capital generation and our capability to retain that kind of flow of dividend payout ratio and buybacks, we're pretty confident at this stage given where we are in the rate cycle. And obviously, we'll monitor that fairly closely. And I'm not giving any guidance, just for clarity, in terms of future buybacks, but we will think that through as we go along. And we've got, obviously, the Canada sale coming up, hopefully, to complete at the end of Q1, which will bolster our cash position.

    不過,就 25 個基點的數學計算而言,你是對的。每季回購 20 億美元,利率為 25 個基點。因此,我們在 2023 年進行了 70 億美元的回購,並且剛剛宣佈在本季再回購 20 億美元。因此,總體而言,就資本產生以及我們維持股利支付率和回購流動的能力而言,考慮到我們所處的利率週期,我們在現階段非常有信心。顯然,我們會相當密切地監控這種情況。為了清楚起見,我不會在未來的回購方面提供任何指導,但我們會在進行過程中考慮這一點。顯然,我們希望在第一季末完成加拿大的銷售,這將增強我們的現金狀況。

  • On the Ring-Fenced Bank comment and question, yes, look, we've had a very healthy return on tangible equity, as you point out. We are seeing competitive pricing pressure in deposits in the U.K. generally. I think there are probably a few factors that drive that. The upcoming TFSME refinancing in the market, it might be one of those factors. Cost of living and QT pressures might be others as well.

    關於環柵銀行的評論和問題,是的,正如您所指出的,我們的有形股本回報率非常健康。我們普遍看到英國存款面臨競爭性定價壓力。我認為可能有幾個因素推動了這一點。即將在市場上進行的 TFSME 再融資,可能是這些因素之一。生活成本和 QT 壓力也可能是其他因素。

  • I think my own view is that you see some of the smaller players that don't have access necessarily to the capital markets as wanting to be particularly competitive on pricing. There are, obviously, as we know, also economic uncertainties, which have been well discussed, and we need to see how that all plays out.

    我認為我自己的觀點是,一些較小的參與者不一定能夠進入資本市場,但他們希望在定價方面具有特別的競爭力。正如我們所知,顯然還存在經濟不確定性,這已經得到了充分討論,我們需要看看這一切會如何發展。

  • But from our perspective, the economy has been very resilient indeed, and we continue to see strong performance. Though, obviously, we're not being complacent. Our view is that as rates start to come down and decline, that should trigger for us more lending and get the balance sheet moving a little bit more.

    但從我們的角度來看,經濟確實非常有彈性,而且我們繼續看到強勁的表現。但顯然,我們並沒有自滿。我們的觀點是,隨著利率開始下降,這應該會引發我們更多的貸款,並使資產負債表的變動更大一些。

  • Overall, just to give you perhaps a little bit more color on the U.K. deposit picture, and perhaps I'll broaden it out because I think it would be of interest to others as well and talk a bit about the Hong Kong. Deposits we've seen in the U.K. come down year-on-year by about $22 billion. That's reflective of the broader industry trends that I talked about and the pressures on customers.

    總的來說,只是為了讓您對英國存款情況有更多了解,也許我會擴大範圍,因為我認為其他人也會對此感興趣,並談論香港。我們看到英國的存款年減了約 220 億美元。這反映了我談到的更廣泛的行業趨勢以及客戶面臨的壓力。

  • We've seen in that WPB balances come down by about $14 billion and CMB come down by about $8 billion. So that covers the U.K. bank. But more broadly, if we look at the overall group, we've seen positive uptick in Hong Kong deposits that's pretty much -- actually, Asia in totality is about $22 billion up on the year, and 1/3 of that is due to the deposit campaign that we pursued in the fourth quarter.

    我們看到,WPB 餘額減少了約 140 億美元,CMB 餘額減少了約 80 億美元。這涵蓋了英國銀行。但更廣泛地說,如果我們觀察整個群體,我們會看到香港存款的積極增長,實際上,亞洲的存款總額比今年增加了約 220 億美元,其中 1/3 是由於我們在第四季度開展的存款活動。

  • So overall, that's what's -- that's some color to the overall movement that we've seen in our deposit base at the group level. And you can see overall deposits for the year are up. That does take into account some of the SVB acquisition as well. Hopefully, that addresses both of your questions.

    總的來說,這就是我們在集團層面的存款基礎上看到的整體走勢的一些色彩。您可以看到今年的存款總額增加。這也確實考慮了 SVB 的部分收購。希望這能解決您的兩個問題。

  • Robert Louis Smalley - MD, Head of Credit Desk Analyst Group and Strategist

    Robert Louis Smalley - MD, Head of Credit Desk Analyst Group and Strategist

  • That's very helpful. Thanks for doing the call.

    這非常有幫助。感謝您撥打電話。

  • Faisal Yousaf - Group Treasurer

    Faisal Yousaf - Group Treasurer

  • No problem. Thank you, Rob. Have a good day.

    沒問題。謝謝你,羅布。祝你有美好的一天。

  • Gregory Case - Head of Fixed Income IR

    Gregory Case - Head of Fixed Income IR

  • Thanks, Rob. So we've got a question submitted in from Panos Toskaa at NatWest. So first, this asks, can we have a clarification around your IBOR Expo securities? You say on the slides that we do not intend to use LIBOR as a means to extract value from holders of our MREL and regulatory capital. What does this mean specifically? And does it refer to all currencies and across the capital stack?

    謝謝,羅布。我們收到了 NatWest 的 Panos Toskaa 提交的問題。首先,我們可以澄清一下你們的 IBOR Expo 證券嗎?您在投影片上說,我們不打算使用 LIBOR 作為從我們的 MREL 和監管資本持有者那裡獲取價值的手段。這具體是什麼意思呢?它是否指所有貨幣和整個資本體系?

  • Faisal Yousaf - Group Treasurer

    Faisal Yousaf - Group Treasurer

  • Okay. Thank you, Panos. Thank you for the question. So probably a few factors to talk through here. Look, our overarching principle really that we're working towards is that we want to work together with investors to reach a solution that's mutually agreeable and in line, of course, with regulatory requirements.

    好的。謝謝你,帕諾斯。感謝你的提問。因此,這裡可能需要討論幾個因素。看,我們正在努力實現的總體原則是,我們希望與投資者合作,達成雙方都同意的解決方案,當然,也符合監管要求。

  • Now obviously, that may not be possible in all cases. But our approach is to try to not leave investors with legacy LIBOR risk without first offering them some kind of market-standard reach-out. We've made some pleasing progress, or what I would describe as pleasing progress, on remediation over a few years now. As I think you will know, Panos, that we undertook successful consent on our sterling English Law Securities in '21, I think it was. And we also redeemed some of our same bonds in '22. And we made announcements in '23 detailing alterations that we would make for U.S. securities following the LIBOR Act and the ARC fallbacks.

    顯然,這可能並非在所有情況下都是可能的。但我們的方法是,在不先向投資者提供某種市場標準的接觸機會的情況下,盡量不讓投資者承受遺留的倫敦銀行間同業拆借利率(LIBOR)風險。幾年來,我們在補救方面取得了一些令人高興的進展,或者我所說的令人高興的進展。我想你會知道,帕諾斯,我們在 21 年成功地同意了我們的英鎊英國法律證券,我認為是這樣。我們也在 22 年贖回了一些相同的債券。我們在 23 年發布了公告,詳細說明了我們將根據 LIBOR 法案和 ARC 後備措施對美國證券進行的變更。

  • But on to the particular statement that we added to our slides in terms of not extracting value, really, what we're trying to do is clarify that we don't want -- we don't view relying on the AT1 fallbacks as a credible path to mitigation if it involves the transfer of value from bondholders to us. That's not our intent here. So we want to, as I said a minute ago, offer some form of remediation exercise.

    但是,關於我們在幻燈片中添加的關於不提取價值的特定聲明,實際上,我們想要做的是澄清我們不希望 - 我們不認為依賴 AT1 後備作為一種方法。如果涉及將價值從債券持有人轉移到我們的話,這是緩解風險的可靠方法。這不是我們的意圖。因此,正如我剛才所說,我們希望提供某種形式的補救措施。

  • Now obviously, if holders choose not to take up that offer, which they're obviously free to continue to do so under existing terms, our view -- given on -- given the current rate dynamics is, it's probably not economically beneficial for them to do so. But obviously, that's a choice. So that's really what we were trying to get across in that statement.

    現在顯然,如果持有者選擇不接受該報價,他們顯然可以根據現有條款自由地繼續這樣做,考慮到當前的利率動態,我們的觀點是,這可能對他們沒有經濟上的好處這樣做。但顯然,這是一個選擇。這就是我們在該聲明中試圖傳達的真正含義。

  • Gregory Case - Head of Fixed Income IR

    Gregory Case - Head of Fixed Income IR

  • Thanks, Fais. So the next question we've got comes from Paul Fenner. So a number of questions, Paul, so I might simplify this a little bit. Apologies. So firstly, in terms of AT1, given your messaging and the capital levels, is it just as likely that you do no issuance this year? Or will you do the 2? And also, furthermore on issuance, how do you think about currencies for this year excluding U.S. dollars? How will you think about euros, I guess, specifically? And finally, on the loan-to-deposit ratio, it's incredibly low now at 58%. What's the right level? And is there a strategy around this at all?

    謝謝,費斯。我們的下一個問題來自保羅‧芬納。保羅,有很多問題,所以我可以稍微簡化一下。道歉。首先,就 AT1 而言,考慮到你們的資訊和資本水平,你們今年是否有可能不發行?或者你會做2嗎?另外,關於發行,您如何看待今年不包括美元在內的貨幣?我想,您具體會如何看待歐元?最後,貸存比現在低得令人難以置信,為 58%。什麼水平合適?有沒有圍繞這個的策略?

  • Faisal Yousaf - Group Treasurer

    Faisal Yousaf - Group Treasurer

  • Okay. Thank you. Thanks for the question. So on AT1 -- actually, let me take a step back for a minute just to talk about the overall '24 issuance. So as I said in my prepared notes, on the senior HoldCo, we're expecting a pretty modest year, and that is driven by averages borrowing demand, but also -- well, the elevated cash position that we expect following the sale of Canada.

    好的。謝謝。謝謝你的提問。關於 AT1,實際上,讓我退後一步,談談 24 年的整體發行情況。因此,正如我在準備好的筆記中所說,關於高級控股公司,我們預計今年的表現將相當溫和,這是由平均借貸需求推動的,而且——好吧,我們預計在出售加拿大之後現金頭寸會增加。

  • On AT1, what we've typically looking to do, we did a little bit of prefinancing of our redemptions in '23. So we did $2 billion of the $4 billion in '23. And now we're largely looking back and looking to move to a position where we fully replace any redeemed AT1. So this year is probably a little bit different. And given the excess CET1 position, I expect to continue to look at the utility of any new issue. And that's why we've guided to approximately $2 billion. We'll look at that call and we'll look at whether what else we've got and our CET1 position at the time.

    在 AT1 上,我們通常希望做的事情是,我們為 23 年的贖回進行了一些預融資。所以我們在 23 年完成了 40 億美元中的 20 億美元。現在,我們主要回顧過去,並希望轉向完全替換任何已贖回的 AT1 的位置。所以今年可能有點不同。鑑於 CET1 部位過剩,我預計將繼續關注任何新發行的效用。這就是為什麼我們將目標定為約 20 億美元。我們會看看那通電話,我們會看看我們是否還有其他的以及當時我們的 CET1 位置。

  • On currencies, so as I also said earlier that, we've somewhat reduced our reliance last year on U.S. dollar, but U.S. dollar is really very important to us. It's over -- it's around about half, perhaps a bit over, in terms of our RWAs. That's U.S. dollar and U.S. dollar-linked instruments.

    在貨幣方面,正如我之前所說,去年我們在某種程度上減少了對美元的依賴,但美元對我們來說確實非常重要。一切都結束了——就我們的 RWA 而言,大約已經結束了一半,也許有點結束了。那就是美元和美元掛鉤工具。

  • That said, we will look to diversify where levels are attractive. We have our ring-fenced bank, which is almost exclusively a sterling balance sheet. Now we're aware of the heightened spread levels in that market and thoughtful about how we'd access the market given it's fairly small. But we will obviously look at sterling, euro, which was, I think, specifically your question, will be another area we think very carefully about. Zing will be 1/3 and perhaps a few other currencies. So that's probably all I can offer at this point in time.

    也就是說,我們將在具有吸引力的層面上尋求多元化。我們有一個封閉的銀行,它幾乎完全是英鎊的資產負債表。現在我們意識到該市場的價差水平較高,並考慮瞭如何進入這個市場(鑑於該市場相當小)。但我們顯然會關注英鎊、歐元,我認為,特別是你的問題,將是我們非常仔細考慮的另一個領域。 Zing 將是 1/3,也許還有其他一些貨幣。這可能就是我目前能提供的全部內容。

  • Then finally, I think there was a comment about loan-to-deposit ratio. And yes, look, it is very healthy. We continue to look at that. We have a healthy liquidity position as well in a number of our legal entities, as you will have seen in the slide deck. There's nothing I can share at this point in time in terms of changing that or a target. We don't have a particular target. We're expecting loan demand to pick up later on in the year, and we'll see how that plays out, really.

    最後,我認為有一個關於貸存比的評論。是的,看,它非常健康。我們將繼續關注這一點。正如您在幻燈片中看到的那樣,我們的許多法人實體也擁有健康的流動性狀況。目前我無法分享任何關於改變這一目標或目標的資訊。我們沒有特定的目標。我們預計貸款需求將在今年稍後回升,我們將拭​​目以待。

  • Gregory Case - Head of Fixed Income IR

    Gregory Case - Head of Fixed Income IR

  • Thanks, Fais. So we've had another submitted question from Dan David at Autonomous. So Dan asks, I think, 3 questions here. Firstly, on leverage, can you comment on the increase in Q4 in the European resolution group? And is this a sign of a longer-term trend or shorter term?

    謝謝,費斯。我們收到了 Autonomous 的 Dan David 提交的另一個問題。所以我認為 Dan 在這裡問了 3 個問題。首先,關於槓桿,您能否評論一下歐洲決議組第四季的增量?這是長期趨勢還是短期趨勢的跡象?

  • On legacy, do you have a target for the reduction in the amount outstanding in '24? And specifically regarding the make-whole bonds, that will be the Tier 1s, would a 50 basis point cut in Central Bank rates push the economics in your favor to take action?

    關於遺產,您是否有 24 年減少未清償金額的目標?特別是關於整體債券(即一級債券),央行利率下調 50 個基點是否會推動經濟有利於您採取行動?

  • Faisal Yousaf - Group Treasurer

    Faisal Yousaf - Group Treasurer

  • Okay. I'll deal with the legacy one. Perhaps, Greg, I'll ask you to talk a bit about the leverage question. So on legacy, in terms of whether we have a target outstanding, no, not explicitly. As I said earlier, we have -- we maintain continuous dialogue with the regulator and we are looking at options now, but there's no target that I can share with you at this stage. And on the 50 basis points reduction, it really depends on which securities one is looking at. In some cases, it could be beneficial; in others, not so much. Greg?

    好的。我會處理遺留問題。格雷格,也許我會請你談談槓桿問題。因此,就遺產而言,就我們是否有一個突出的目標而言,不,不明確。正如我之前所說,我們與監管機構保持持續對話,我們現在正在考慮選擇,但現階段我沒有可以與大家分享的目標。至於降幅 50 個基點,其實取決於人們所關注的是哪一種證券。在某些情況下,這可能是有益的;在其他方面則不然。格雷格?

  • Gregory Case - Head of Fixed Income IR

    Gregory Case - Head of Fixed Income IR

  • Yes, sure. So Dan, I don't think there's one specific thing I'd point towards on the increase in leverage in the European business. I think there is a few moving pieces. So of course, the European resolution group houses are our non-ring-fenced bank, which is a global booking center for our markets business. So that will naturally flex up and down as we see opportunities. And I wouldn't say necessarily we call out a longer-term trend there at this stage.

    是的,當然。所以丹,我不認為我會指出關於歐洲業務槓桿增加的具體事情。我認為有一些令人感動的部分。當然,歐洲決議集團是我們的非封閉銀行,它是我們市場業務的全球預訂中心。因此,當我們看到機會時,它會自然地上下波動。我並不認為我們一定會在現階段指出長期趨勢。

  • The other one to bear in mind, though, is there is a bit of noise here. So you'll recall that the European Unions required us to consolidate all of our European Union businesses into -- underneath one subsidiary as the IPU. That requirement came in at the end of the year. And we made a few transfers out -- from outside of the European resolution group into the European resolution group, which increased its notional assets at the same time. So there's a few pieces there, but nothing I'd specifically call out as driving it.

    不過,要記住的另一個問題是這裡有一點噪音。因此,您可能還記得,歐盟要求我們將所有歐盟業務整合到一個子公司之下,即議會聯盟 (IPU)。這項要求是在年底提出的。我們進行了一些轉移——從歐洲決議集團之外轉移到歐洲決議集團,同時增加了其名義資產。所以那裡有一些部分,但我沒有特別指出驅動它的部分。

  • Moving on. So we have a anonymous question come in. So first, would you mind walking us through the -- why the -- why we have a lower level of issuance this year and how confident you are in this negative net issuance for HoldCo senior specifically?

    繼續。因此,我們有一個匿名問題。首先,您介意向我們介紹為什麼我們今年的發行水平較低,以及您對 HoldCo 高級股東的負淨發行有多大信心?

  • Faisal Yousaf - Group Treasurer

    Faisal Yousaf - Group Treasurer

  • Yes, sure. Okay. Perhaps I'll start with just talking a little bit about what we did in 2023. So we had -- I was pretty happy with where we ended up in '23, actually. We had an overissuance plan for senior HoldCo of $17 billion to $19 billion, which we communicated at the beginning of the year. We landed at about $19 billion, so at the lower end of the range.

    是的,當然。好的。也許我會先談談我們在 2023 年所做的事情。實際上,我對我們在 2023 年的最終結果非常滿意。我們為高級控股公司製定了 170 億至 190 億美元的超額發行計劃,我們在今年年初傳達了這項計劃。我們的估值約為 190 億美元,處於該範圍的下限。

  • And as I said earlier, about 60% of that was U.S., 30% or so was euro and the rest in sterling and other currencies. For Tier 2, we had an issuance plan of $4 billion to $5 billion that we communicated at the beginning of '23, ended up at around $5 billion. And then for AT1, it was $2 billion. So happy in '23. And as the questioner has rightly observed, it is more modest this year.

    正如我之前所說,其中大約 60% 是美元,30% 左右是歐元,其餘是英鎊和其他貨幣。對於二級市場,我們在 23 年初溝通了 40 億至 50 億美元的發行計劃,最終約為 50 億美元。然後 AT1 的投資額為 20 億美元。 23年真幸福。正如提問者所正確觀察到的,今年的情況更加溫和。

  • And really, look, we have a pretty good degree of confidence actually in the plans that we have. There are uncertainties, nevertheless, in terms of if loan demand picks up, that might prompt us to change. Obviously, it's somewhat contingent on us concluding some of our disposals this year as well Canada in particular.

    事實上,我們對自己的計劃充滿信心。然而,就貸款需求是否回升而言,存在不確定性,這可能會促使我們做出改變。顯然,這在一定程度上取決於我們今年完成的一些處置,尤其是加拿大。

  • But really, on the senior HoldCo, what we're saying is up to $10 billion in terms of the plan this year and as you all have heard, compares to '17. Now I'm expecting us to -- sorry, and that makes us a negative issuer then in the senior HoldCo. I'm expecting us to return to more 2023 levels in '25. So this year is probably somewhat unusual in our thinking. So that's on the senior HoldCo, which I think was a question.

    但實際上,就高級控股公司而言,我們所說的今年的計劃高達 100 億美元,正如你們都聽說的那樣,與 17 年相比。現在我希望我們——抱歉,這使我們成為高級控股公司中的負面發行人。我預計我們將在 25 年恢復到 2023 年的水平。因此,今年在我們看來可能有些不尋常。這是高級控股公司的問題,我認為這是一個問題。

  • But actually, just for completeness, I'll mention a little bit about Tier 2 and AT1. Tier 2, likely to be $2 billion to $3 billion this year. And that's probably the run rate on a go-forward basis. And the AT1s, as I said earlier, it's probably like-for-like in terms of, as we call, we'll look to replace. And we don't necessarily need to prefund in order to replace, but we'll probably go along those kind of lines.

    但實際上,為了完整起見,我將稍微提及第 2 層和 AT1。第二級,今年可能為 20 億至 30 億美元。這可能是未來的運行率。至於 AT1,正如我之前所說,它可能是同類產品,正如我們所說,我們將尋求更換。我們不一定需要預先提供資金才能進行更換,但我們可能會遵循這種思路。

  • Gregory Case - Head of Fixed Income IR

    Gregory Case - Head of Fixed Income IR

  • Thanks, Fais. So we've had another question come in. (Operator Instructions) So this comes in from Lee Street at Citi. Lee asks, you highlight the $6.3 billion of Mainland China exposure, but the bank also has a lot of other real estate exposure to Hong Kong and China. Please, can you give us some color on what is the -- or is happening generically with those exposures and why they are seeing differently? And secondly, Lee also asks, the MREL buffer is $42 billion. Why is that buffer so high? And what level could you realistically envisage reducing that number down to?

    謝謝,費斯。所以我們收到了另一個問題。(操作員說明)這是來自花旗銀行李街的問題。 Lee 問道,您強調了 63 億美元的中國大陸風險敞口,但該銀行在香港和中國大陸也有很多其他房地產風險敞口。請您告訴我們這些曝光的情況或一般情況,以及為什麼他們看到的不同?其次,Lee 也問道,MREL 緩衝是 420 億美元。為什麼緩衝這麼高?您實際上可以設想將這個數字減少到什麼程度?

  • Faisal Yousaf - Group Treasurer

    Faisal Yousaf - Group Treasurer

  • Okay. Thanks, Lee. I was expecting you actually to call in. So thank you for the question anyway. So there is a slide in our deck. I think it's around $35 million in the fixed income deck, Page 35. So it's probably in the appendices, which breaks out our commercial real estate exposure year-on-year. And I think the things I'd call out are that on a full year basis, we've reduced the overall CRE exposure by around 13%, from memory. So it's now about $83.5 billion around the world.

    好的。謝謝,李。我本來以為你真的會打電話來。所以無論如何謝謝你提出這個問題。所以我們的甲板上有一張幻燈片。我認為第 35 頁的固定收益平台大約有 3500 萬美元。所以它可能在附錄中,它按年列出了我們的商業房地產敞口。我認為我要指出的是,根據記憶,我們已經將全年的整體商業房地產風險敞口減少了約 13%。現在全世界的價值約為 835 億美元。

  • The kind of areas that I would perhaps zoom in on or focus on is Hong Kong. And we have reduced those numbers from $50 billion down to $42 billion, so around 15% reduction. When you drill into that detail, if -- then one of the reasons we look at this differently is, that is not necessarily residential mortgages as you would see in the China CRE space. It could be office or other types of commercial real estate retail, et cetera.

    我可能會關注或關注的地區是香港。我們已將這些數字從 500 億美元減少到 420 億美元,減少了約 15%。當你深入研究這個細節時,如果——那麼我們以不同的方式看待這個問題的原因之一是,這不一定是你在中國商業房地產領域看到的住宅抵押貸款。它可以是辦公室或其他類型的商業房地產零售等。

  • The office exposure that we have was around 8% down in 2023 and is down, I think, around 26% versus our peak, which is around about 2018. So we've reduced that exposure somewhat. And we feel -- we remain comfortable with it, actually. There's nothing I would call out in terms of a worry there at this point.

    到 2023 年,我們的辦公室風險敞口下降了約 8%,我認為,與 2018 年左右的峰值相比,下降了約 26%。因此,我們在一定程度上減少了該風險敞口。事實上,我們覺得——我們仍然對此感到滿意。在這一點上我沒有什麼可擔心的。

  • Also in the U.S., we've made substantial reductions in 2023. I think that may have been commented on earlier in the day. And that's come down to just under $4 billion, so down about 27% in terms of our CRE.

    同樣在美國,我們在 2023 年進行了大幅削減。我認為當天早些時候可能已經對此發表了評論。這已降至近 40 億美元,就我們的 CRE 而言,下降了約 27%。

  • I would also draw your attention on the same slide, Slide 35, to our LTV analysis, which shows that in Hong Kong, the LTV -- 70-plus percent of our LTV is less than 50%. And in the U.K., similarly, we have a very healthy LTV position. So that's all, I think, very positive.

    我還想提請您注意同一張投影片(投影片 35)我們的 LTV 分析,該分析顯示在香港,LTV(我們的 LTV 的 70% 以上)低於 50%。同樣,在英國,我們的生命週期價值也非常健康。我認為這就是全部,非常積極。

  • Now in -- on the second part of your question, if I recall correctly, you were talking about the $42 billion. The majority of that is CET1. And we have a prudent buffer in place. There are obviously regulatory constraints there, but we're confident about those debt buffers. I guess that's probably all I'll comment on. But Greg, perhaps I'd welcome you to make any comments you have.

    現在,關於你問題的第二部分,如果我沒記錯的話,你談論的是 420 億美元。其中大部分是CET1。我們有一個審慎的緩衝。那裡顯然存在監管限制,但我們對這些債務緩衝充滿信心。我想這可能就是我要評論的全部內容。但是格雷格,也許我歡迎你提出任何意見。

  • Gregory Case - Head of Fixed Income IR

    Gregory Case - Head of Fixed Income IR

  • Yes. So as you note that the majority is CET1. So as you can imagine, given that the MDA level is 11.2%, and we're operating at 14.8%, the bulk of that MREL buffer is in CET1. So it's going to largely follow that track. And I think elsewhere, we're broadly comfortable with those buffers.

    是的。正如您所注意到的,大多數人都是 CET1。因此,正如您可以想像的那樣,考慮到 MDA 水平為 11.2%,而我們的運行速度為 14.8%,那麼 MREL 緩衝區的大部分位於 CET1 中。因此,它將在很大程度上遵循這條軌道。我認為在其他地方,我們對這些緩衝基本上感到滿意。

  • So we have a call coming in off the line of [Phil Pole] from Deka.

    我們接到 Deka 的 [Phil Pole] 電話。

  • Unidentified Analyst

    Unidentified Analyst

  • Can you hear me?

    你聽得到我嗎?

  • Gregory Case - Head of Fixed Income IR

    Gregory Case - Head of Fixed Income IR

  • Phil, go ahead.

    菲爾,繼續吧。

  • Unidentified Analyst

    Unidentified Analyst

  • Yes. So my question is around this quarter, you've published lots of negatives with the Bank of Communications and so on. Do you think now everything negative is like off the table? Or will these stories -- these negative stories like on China CRE provisions and Bank of Communications and Argentina and so on, will they continue in the next quarters?

    是的。所以我的問題是,在這個季度,你們發布了很多關於交通銀行的負面消息等等。你認為現在所有負面的事情都不再討論了嗎?或者這些故事——這些關於中國商業房地產條款、交通銀行和阿根廷等的負面故事,會在接下來的幾季繼續出現嗎?

  • Gregory Case - Head of Fixed Income IR

    Gregory Case - Head of Fixed Income IR

  • Phil, so I mean, it's always going to be very, very hard to predict these items. And I think, yes, certainly unfortunate the significant numbers of one-offs that did come through the results in Q4. And of course, we'd hope that it's a smaller number in the future. And there were a number of quarters in 2023 that were pretty clean, actually. So yes, it's unfortunate that they all came through in Q4 and made it understandably difficult to pick through.

    菲爾,所以我的意思是,預測這些項目總是非常非常困難。我認為,是的,第四季度的結果確實出現了大量的一次性事件,這確實是不幸的。當然,我們希望未來這個數字會更少。事實上,2023 年有許多季度都相當乾淨。所以,是的,不幸的是,他們都在第四季度完成了任務,這使得選擇變得困難是可以理解的。

  • In terms of the BoCom impairment, we've been doing that calculation on a quarterly basis for a very long time. Effectively, the fact that the market value of our ownership is below our carrying value is an indicator that we need to do an impairment test. It's simply that we've got to with the point in that impairment test that it's crystallized a $3 billion loss. We'll continue to do those tests in the coming quarters as long as we're -- it's necessary for us to do so. And of course, we couldn't rule out further impairments, but there's nothing to add at this stage.

    就交通銀行減損而言,我們很長一段時間以來都是按季度進行計算。實際上,我們所有權的市場價值低於帳面價值這一事實表明我們需要進行減損測試。只是我們必須在減損測試中明確這一點,即 30 億美元的損失具體化了。只要我們有必要,我們就會在未來幾季繼續進行這些測試。當然,我們不能排除進一步的損害,但現階段沒有什麼可補充的。

  • Argentina hyperinflation, that has been a feature for a long time in our results, but it's been relatively minor. What you saw in Q4 was a very significant devaluation in the peso, which accelerated a significant volume of that into -- of the adjustment into Q4. And of course, that will -- again, it's out of our control. To the extent that a further adjustment is necessary, that will be determined by the -- how the currency moves and the inflation in Argentina. But yes, we'd love to see as many clean quarters as we can in the future.

    阿根廷的惡性通貨膨脹長期以來一直是我們結果中的一個特徵,但相對較小。您在第四季看到的是比索的大幅貶值,這加速了第四季的大幅調整。當然,這又是我們無法控制的。是否需要進一步調整,將取決於貨幣走勢和阿根廷的通膨情況。但是,是的,我們希望將來能看到盡可能多的乾淨宿舍。

  • Unidentified Analyst

    Unidentified Analyst

  • And a second question, if I may...

    第二個問題,我是否可以...

  • Faisal Yousaf - Group Treasurer

    Faisal Yousaf - Group Treasurer

  • Phil, just before you do, I just wanted to add to that -- add to Greg's response. I would comment that the adjustment that was made, as Greg has indicated, it is a technical accounting adjustment. And it had no impact on CET1 ratio, no impact on our dividends.

    菲爾,就在你之前,我只想補充一點——補充一下格雷格的回應。我想說的是,正如格雷格所指出的那樣,所做的調整是技術性的會計調整。它對 CET1 比率沒有影響,對我們的股息沒有影響。

  • And Nova, as you've heard already, I mean, there's a very positive story in terms of our dividends and payouts for 2023. I should also say, as was said in the call this morning, it doesn't change our strategy to Mainland China. There's no impact on our strategic relationship with BoCom, no impact on HSBC or BoCom's operations or strategic outlook. It is purely an accounting calculation, the VIU test, the value-in-use test, which we are mandated to do on a quarterly basis. And we're not expecting or not anticipating any further adjustments at this stage.

    Nova,正如您已經聽說的那樣,我的意思是,就2023 年的股息和支出而言,有一個非常積極的故事。我還應該說,正如今天早上的電話會議中所說,這並沒有改變我們的策略中國大陸。這不會影響我們與交通銀行的策略關係,也不會影響匯豐銀行或交通銀行的營運或策略前景。這純粹是一種會計計算、VIU 測試、使用價值測試,我們被要求每季進行一次。我們現階段不期待或不期待任何進一步的調整。

  • Unidentified Analyst

    Unidentified Analyst

  • And just one last question, if I may. Your -- the HoldCo bonds that you issued, the HoldCo seniors, do you account them at fair value still so that you might need to issue more or less depending on where rates go?

    如果可以的話,還有最後一個問題。您發行的控股公司債券,即控股公司的優先債券,您是否仍以公允價值對它們進行核算,以便您可能需要根據利率的變化發行更多或更少的債券?

  • Faisal Yousaf - Group Treasurer

    Faisal Yousaf - Group Treasurer

  • Yes, we do, we account for them at fair value. We know that we take a conservative approach for our MREL and capital stack. We believe that's the right way to value these instruments, albeit there are a variety of practices. And we know that the regulators are looking at this with welcome clarity, but we use fair value to value them.

    是的,我們這樣做,我們以公允價值對其進行會計處理。我們知道,我們對 MREL 和資本堆疊採取保守的態度。我們相信,儘管做法多種多樣,但這是對這些工具進行估值的正確方法。我們知道監管機構正在以清晰的態度看待這個問題,但我們使用公允價值來對其進行估值。

  • Gregory Case - Head of Fixed Income IR

    Gregory Case - Head of Fixed Income IR

  • Yes. And just to add to that, Phil, just to finalize that, I know that this has been a headwind to us in previous years. In 2023, it was actually a tailwind. So some of that negative mark-to-market that we accrued through the regulatory ratios in 2022 did come back to some extent, particularly in the fourth quarter. So all in, it's probably benefited us by $3 billion, $4 billion, I'd say, at this stage. But of course, that will always be dependent on the path of rates and how that changes.

    是的。補充一點,菲爾,最後,我知道這對我們來說是前幾年的阻力。 2023年,這其實是順風順水。因此,我們透過 2022 年監管比率累積的一些負市價確實在一定程度上捲土重來,特別是在第四季度。總而言之,現階段它可能使我們受益 30 億美元、40 億美元。但當然,這始終取決於利率的走勢及其變動方式。

  • Faisal Yousaf - Group Treasurer

    Faisal Yousaf - Group Treasurer

  • Yes. I've got in the back of my mind that we were at $8 billion negative value at one stage, and we're $4.5 billion as at year-end. So...

    是的。我的腦海裡浮現出我們一度處於負值 80 億美元的狀態,而截至年底我們的負值是 45 億美元。所以...

  • Gregory Case - Head of Fixed Income IR

    Gregory Case - Head of Fixed Income IR

  • That's right, Fais, yes. So we've had a -- thanks for your question, Phil. We've had another question in from Iuliana Golub from Goldman Sachs. Iuliana asks, could you please comment on the Mexican business cost of risk outlook for 2024? It looks like a fairly high charge in Q4 for the unsecured consumer book?

    沒錯,費斯,是的。所以我們有一個——謝謝你的問題,菲爾。我們也收到了來自高盛 (Goldman Sachs) 的 Iuliana Golub 的另一個問題。 Iuliana 問,您能否對 2024 年墨西哥商業風險成本前景發表評論?看起來第四季無擔保消費書籍的收費相當高?

  • And I'll take that. So yes, look, we're growing that business. So as we grow that business, there's 2 things to think about. So firstly, growing arguably a higher-risk book than we typically originate around the rest of the group given Mexican unsecured business will generate meaningful stage 1 and stage 2 charges as we do that just because of the day 1 recognition.

    我會接受的。所以,是的,看,我們正在發展這項業務。因此,當我們發展該業務時,有兩件事需要考慮。因此,首先,考慮到墨西哥無擔保業務,與我們通常圍繞集團其他公司發起的風險更高的賬簿的增長,將產生有意義的第一階段和第二階段費用,因為我們這樣做只是因為第一天的認可。

  • In addition, of course, is as we grow that book, we will be fine-tuning risk over time. But the level of impairments that we're generating in that business, we're comfortable with and reflect -- and is fully reflected in the pricing that we're getting on the asset side.

    此外,當然,隨著這本書的發展,我們將隨著時間的推移對風險進行微調。但我們在該業務中產生的減值水平,我們感到滿意並得到反映,並且充分反映在我們在資產方面的定價中。

  • So yes, it is contributing. We are conscious of that. It is still a pretty small business in the grand scheme of things and certainly on the balance sheet side, you'll see Mexico still remains a relatively modest contributor to the loan book compared to its profit contributions. But yes, I think something we'll continue to keep our eye on.

    所以是的,它正在做出貢獻。我們意識到這一點。從總體上看,它仍然是一個相當小的企業,當然在資產負債表方面,你會發現與利潤貢獻相比,墨西哥對貸款帳簿的貢獻仍然相對較小。但是,是的,我認為我們將繼續關注這一點。

  • And I think that draws us to an end. I think we've got through all the questions that have been -- oh, sorry, we've got a question from Rob Thomas on the line.

    我認為這讓我們結束了。我想我們已經解決了所有的問題——哦,抱歉,我們接到了羅布·托馬斯(Rob Thomas)的電話問題。

  • Rob Thomas

    Rob Thomas

  • Just a follow-up, just Argentina. Can you remind me what business you do there and what the importance of that business is for the group?

    只是後續行動,只有阿根廷。您能提醒我您在那裡從事什麼業務以及該業務對集團的重要性嗎?

  • Gregory Case - Head of Fixed Income IR

    Gregory Case - Head of Fixed Income IR

  • So we've got a historic operation in Argentina. It's a full-service business, albeit it's got smaller in recent years, I think, particularly on the retail side. And it does what most of our subsidiaries do around the world. It provides part of our international network and is a broader, largely corporate institutional business there.

    所以我們在阿根廷開展了一次歷史性的行動。我認為,這是一家提供全方位服務的企業,儘管近年來規模有所縮小,尤其是在零售方面。它所做的事情與我們在世界各地的大多數子公司所做的事情相同。它是我們國際網絡的一部分,並且是一個更廣泛的、主要是公司機構的業務。

  • So yes, I think that's all the questions we have. So Fais, I'll just hand it back to you if you want to wrap up.

    所以,是的,我認為這就是我們的所有問題。 Fais,如果你想結束的話,我會把它還給你。

  • Faisal Yousaf - Group Treasurer

    Faisal Yousaf - Group Treasurer

  • Okay. Thank you. Thank you, everyone, for your time today and for joining us. I hope you found the call useful. If you do have further questions, please do pick up with Greg and the IR team. And we are looking forward to seeing some of you when we're on the road over the next few weeks and months. Thank you very much and have a good day.

    好的。謝謝。謝謝大家今天抽出時間來參加我們的活動。我希望您覺得這次通話有用。如果您還有其他問題,請聯絡 Greg 和 IR 團隊。我們期待在接下來的幾週和幾個月的旅途中見到你們中的一些人。非常感謝您,祝您有美好的一天。