滙豐控股 (HSBC) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Hello, everyone. Welcome to the HSBC Fixed Income Call for our full year 2022 results. Thank you for joining us. I'm Carlo Pellerani, Group Treasurer, and I'm joined by Richard O'Connor, Global Head of Investor Relations; and Greg Case, Head of the Investor Relations.

大家好。歡迎參加匯豐銀行固定收益電話會議，了解我們 2022 年全年的業績。感謝您加入我們。我是集團財務主管 Carlo Pellerani，投資者關係全球主管 Richard O'Connor 也加入了我的行列；和投資者關係主管 Greg Case。

As usual, I'll mention a couple of things in the results, then a quick update on financial resources. And finally, we'll go into Q&A. I will not be referencing any slide as we go through. In terms of results, I just would like to mention 3 points. 9.9% royalty for the year, 1.6% up on the back of higher NII and good cost control, which more than offset a higher ECL charge, we expect royalty to improve to about 12% this year.

像往常一樣，我會在結果中提到幾件事，然後快速更新財務資源。最後，我們將進入問答環節。在我們進行時，我不會引用任何幻燈片。在結果方面，我只想提3點。今年的特許權使用費為 9.9%，由於更高的 NII 和良好的成本控制，增加了 1.6%，這抵消了更高的 ECL 費用，我們預計今年特許權使用費將提高到 12% 左右。

Second, in terms of balance sheet dynamics, the reported loans and deposit numbers need to be read carefully because they include adjustments for the Canadian and French sales and FX. So if you exclude those loans actually decreased by $25 billion only in the quarter and deposits were flat. And then finally, credit quality remains quite solid. Full year ECL charge equivalent to 35 basis points of gross loans. Stage 3 loans remained low at 2.1% of total loans. And at this stage, we still see limited signs of deterioration in the loan book, and we are flagging an ECL charge of around 40 basis points for the year.

其次，在資產負債表動態方面，需要仔細閱讀報告的貸款和存款數據，因為它們包括對加拿大和法國銷售和外彙的調整。因此，如果你排除這些貸款，實際上僅在本季度就減少了 250 億美元，而存款則持平。最後，信貸質量仍然相當穩固。全年 ECL 費用相當於總貸款的 35 個基點。第三階段貸款仍然很低，佔貸款總額的 2.1%。在這個階段，我們仍然看到貸款賬簿惡化的跡像有限，我們預計今年的預期信用損失費用約為 40 個基點。

Now on to financial resources, starting with capital. Our CET1 ratio, as you saw, was 14.2%, which is 80 basis points up in the fourth quarter, thanks to profits and lower adjusted RWAs. We are now inside our CET1 target of 14% to 14.5% and 3.3 percentage points above our MDA requirements. Second, on liquidity, it remains quite strong, most importantly at the legal entity level. We're also reporting 132% group LCR with total gross HQLA of over $800 billion. Our loan-to-deposit ratio is quite low at 59%, and hence, we have a meaningful deposit surplus, which positions us quite well in this higher rate environment.

現在談談財務資源，從資本開始。如您所見，我們的 CET1 比率為 14.2%，在第四季度上升了 80 個基點，這要歸功於利潤和較低的調整後 RWA。我們現在處於 14% 至 14.5% 的 CET1 目標之內，比我們的 MDA 要求高出 3.3 個百分點。其次，在流動性方面，它仍然相當強勁，最重要的是在法人實體層面。我們還報告了 132% 的集團 LCR，總 HQLA 超過 8000 億美元。我們的存貸比很低，只有 59%，因此我們有可觀的存款盈餘，這使我們在這個高利率環境中處於有利地位。

Our MREL ratio is at 30.1%, which compares very favorably to our 26.4% requirement. We intend to continue to operate with a prudent buffer of that minimum. From a funding perspective, we expect to issue a similar amount of gross debt to the one we issued last year, targeting $70 billion to $20 billion of holdco senior, $4 billion to $5 billion in Tier 2 and about $2 billion in Tier 1. Our legacy capital, good progress in 2022. We reduced this time by over $4 billion. We will continue to monitor the market for cost-effective options to manage this take down over time.

我們的 MREL 比率為 30.1%，與我們 26.4% 的要求相比非常有利。我們打算繼續以最低限度的審慎緩衝運營。從融資的角度來看，我們預計將發行與去年發行的債務總額相似的債務，目標是 700 億至 200 億美元的 Holdco 優先級，40 億至 50 億美元的二級和約 20 億美元的一級。我們的遺留資本，2022 年取得良好進展。我們這次減少了超過 40 億美元。我們將繼續監控市場，尋找具有成本效益的選擇，以隨著時間的推移管理這種下架。

So in summary, a good year. The group now becoming very capital generative. Our capital funding and liquidity positions leave us well placed to continue growing, and we believe our business model offers one's holders, one of the most diverse sets of restraints in Global Banking. On that note, let's open the call for Q&A. I'll hand over to Greg.

總而言之，這是美好的一年。該集團現在變得非常具有資本生成能力。我們的資本資金和流動性狀況使我們有能力繼續增長，我們相信我們的商業模式為持有人提供了全球銀行業中最多樣化的限制之一。關於這一點，讓我們打開問答環節。我會交給格雷格。

Thanks, Carlo. Hi, everyone. As we did last time, we'll be taking questions over Zoom. (Operator Instructions) So first question comes from Lee Street from Citi.

謝謝，卡羅。大家好。正如我們上次所做的那樣，我們將通過 Zoom 回答問題。 （操作員說明）所以第一個問題來自花旗的 Lee Street。

Lee, we can't hear you, sorry. Moving on to Dan David from Autonomous.

李，我們聽不到你的聲音，抱歉。從 Autonomous 轉到 Dan David。

Congratulations on the results. I have 3. Just wanted to touch upon the AT1 call, the $1.625. Was this decision taken on an economic basis? You mentioned before the call that the market wasn't pricing in the risk of extension. And I guess if I look at your spreads today and also your issuance plan versus your total cost this year, it suggested it could have been called out right, similar to what you've done in previous years. On the legacy, could you just remind us of your priorities whether there anything has changed there?

祝賀結果。我有 3 個。只是想談談 AT1 電話，1.625 美元。這個決定是在經濟基礎上做出的嗎？您在電話會議之前提到市場並未對延期風險進行定價。我想如果我看看你們今天的利差以及你們的發行計劃與你們今年的總成本，它表明它可能是正確的，類似於你們前幾年所做的。關於遺產，您能否提醒我們您的優先事項是否有任何變化？

And then just focusing on the make holes. You've talked about economics there in the past as well. I'm just wondering if you can pride to guide as to what sort of P&L or CET1 impact you'd be willing to book? And I guess I'm looking at the exercises that you've done so far and kind of thinking of 1 to 2 points that you've kind of paid. Is that reasonable? Or should we expect that you'd maybe take a larger hit as a result of the need to get rid of these securities? And then finally, just a quick one on LIBOR. Do you intend to use the synthetic extension on your dollar Disco s post-June '23?

然後只專注於製造漏洞。你過去也在那裡談論過經濟學。我只是想知道您是否可以自豪地指導您願意預訂什麼樣的 P&L 或 CET1 影響？而且我想我正在查看您到目前為止所做的練習，並考慮您已經支付的 1 到 2 點。這合理嗎？或者我們是否應該預期您可能會因為需要擺脫這些證券而受到更大的打擊？最後，快速介紹一下 LIBOR。您是否打算在 23 年 6 月之後的美元 Disco 上使用合成擴展？

Thanks very much for the 3 questions. On the AT1 call to start, yes, the decisions that we make are on economic terms. Now the way that those economics are calculated are a little bit more complex than just calculating the PV of the transaction. So broadly speaking, what we do is we take into account 3 components. One is the PV of a call versus automatically reaching the full amount.

非常感謝3個問題。在 AT1 呼籲開始時，是的，我們做出的決定是基於經濟條件的。現在計算這些經濟學的方法比僅僅計算交易的 PV 稍微複雜一點。所以從廣義上講，我們所做的是考慮 3 個組成部分。一個是呼叫的 PV 與自動達到全額。

Second, what is the full amount that we need outstanding and whether we're going to have a period of time or an amount outstanding to replace that call, which is smaller. And as a consequence, there is a cost of carry that we are avoiding. And third, what is the impact on the future spread and the Asian markets. When you put all those things into account, it's a little bit of [enlarge] rather than a full science. We put all those things together, and we come up with the results. And you saw on the back of that, that we decided to call the transaction. That's probably all I can say on that one.

其次，我們需要未償還的全部金額是多少，我們是否需要一段時間或未償還的金額來取代那個較小的電話。因此，我們正在避免攜帶成本。第三，對未來價差和亞洲市場有何影響。當你把所有這些事情都考慮在內時，它有點[放大]而不是一門完整的科學。我們把所有這些東西放在一起，然後得出結果。你在背後看到了，我們決定調用交易。這可能就是我能說的。

In terms of legacy, you might remember from previous calls that I described that I think of these in 2 dimensions. There is a dimension which is how complex the securities are from a resolution perspective, and on the second dimension is what is the [call] of taking those securities out. So when you put all those 2 dimensions together, we ended up with a pecking order that has broadly speaking, 4 buckets.

就遺留問題而言，您可能還記得之前的電話會議中我描述過我從二維角度考慮這些問題。從決議的角度來看，有一個維度是證券的複雜程度，第二個維度是取出這些證券的 [call] 是什麼。所以當你把所有這兩個維度放在一起時，我們最終得到了一個從廣義上講有 4 個桶的啄食順序。

The first bucket is the holding company near low securities. Those are in the first bucket because they are out of our resolution entity, the holding company. And there is a lack of contraction rights of recognition of the Bank of England bail-in-able rights. So those are the first priorities. Second, we have the HP -- the non-ring-fenced bank fixed rates Tier 2s, then we have the Disco s and then we have everything else. So as you saw, we progressed along the first 2 buckets last year and those buckets continue to be the most important and we'll progress down from that priority list.

第一個桶是低價證券附近的控股公司。那些在第一個桶中，因為它們不在我們的決議實體（控股公司）之外。並且缺乏承認英格蘭銀行保釋權的收縮權。所以這些是首要任務。其次，我們有 HP——無限制銀行固定利率 Tier 2s，然後我們有 Disco s，然後我們擁有其他一切。因此，正如您所見，我們去年在前 2 個方面取得了進展，這些方面仍然是最重要的，我們將從優先級列表中向下推進。

Third on synthetic LIBOR, all I would say is, at this stage, consultation synthetic LIBOR hasn't concluded. So we'll have to wait for that before we can do anything about it.

第三，關於合成 LIBOR，我想說的是，在這個階段，合成 LIBOR 的磋商還沒有結束。所以我們必須等待它，然後我們才能對此做任何事情。

Thanks, Dan. So we've got some questions in from Lee. I'll just read them out. I think he's having some trouble joining. So firstly, he asks a high-level question. With all the changes in the business model in recent years, which banks do we regard as our main peers. Additionally, what's the plan for the $4.3 billion of legacy that loses capital value in 2025? And also linked to that, should we assume that the $4 billion to $5 billion of Tier 2 will be a normal run rate over the next few years?

謝謝，丹。 Lee 提出了一些問題。我會把它們讀出來。我認為他在加入時遇到了一些麻煩。所以首先，他問了一個高層次的問題。隨著近年來商業模式的所有變化，我們將哪些銀行視為我們的主要同行。此外，2025 年失去資本價值的 43 億美元遺產的計劃是什麼？並且與此相關的是，我們是否應該假設 40 億至 50 億美元的 2 級資金將在未來幾年內成為正常運行率？

On the first question, HSBC stands pretty much on its own in the type of business model that we have. So we don't quite see ourselves having a very comparable peer around the globe. What we do is we look at each of those markets and we compare ourselves versus more local peers, with, of course, the caveat that the value of our franchise is actually the international connectivity. So it's difficult pretty much to give you a few set of peers that you can compare us against.

關於第一個問題，匯豐銀行在我們擁有的商業模式類型方面幾乎是獨立的。因此，我們不太認為自己在全球擁有非常可比的同行。我們所做的是審視每個市場，並將自己與更多本地同行進行比較，當然，我們的特許經營權的價值實際上是國際連通性。因此，很難為您提供一些可以與我們進行比較的同行。

In terms of the legacy securities losing value in 2025. What we're doing is we are prefunding that those amounts over the next few years to avoid a big [claim] risk in 2025, and that's incorporated into the $4 billion to $5 billion that we're flagging for this year for Tier 2. And then on your third question, looking forward, and I would say this more broadly across all the components of the stack, we are now more or less at a level where the distribution of the different components of the stack are pretty much where we think they should be. And from this point, we are about refinancing and financing growth.

就 2025 年遺留證券的價值損失而言。我們正在做的是在未來幾年為這些金額預先提供資金，以避免在 2025 年出現巨大的[索賠]風險，並將其納入 40 億至 50 億美元我們正在標記今年的第 2 層。然後關於你的第三個問題，展望未來，我會更廣泛地在堆棧的所有組件中說這個，我們現在或多或少處於這樣一個水平，即堆棧的不同組件幾乎都在我們認為它們應該在的地方。從這一點來看，我們是關於再融資和融資增長。

So if you take the current amount of spending and you divide them in, I don't know, 5 to 7-year average maturity, you end up with an annual amount of issuance, which is not that dissimilar to what we are doing this year, and that includes also the Tier 2s. So somewhere between, let's say, $3 billion to $5 billion on a stable basis every year. Richard, do you want to comment anything else especially on the first question?

因此，如果你將當前的支出金額分成 5 到 7 年的平均期限，你最終會得到每年的發行量，這與我們正在做的並沒有什麼不同年，其中還包括 Tier 2。因此，假設每年穩定在 30 億到 50 億美元之間。理查德，你還想評論其他什麼，尤其是第一個問題嗎？

On the payers, Lee, it's a very good question. And clearly, we can do benchmarking for example, while U.K. ring-fencing bank versus our bigger peer banks, and we do so. It's the same in (inaudible), same in China and obviously in our own market in Hong Kong versus other large Hong Kong banks. But the short answer is at the group level, there's no one -- Carlo said there's no one sort of direct -- or we got peers in trade, we've obviously got 3 or 4 banks who are also global, but much smaller than us, we're double the size of them too.

關於付款人，Lee，這是一個很好的問題。很明顯，我們可以做基準測試，例如，英國的圍欄銀行與我們更大的同行銀行相比，我們這樣做了。在（聽不清），在中國也是如此，顯然在我們自己的香港市場與其他大型香港銀行中也是如此。但簡短的回答是在集團層面，沒有人——Carlo 說沒有一種直接的——或者我們在貿易中有同行，我們顯然有 3 或 4 家銀行，它們也是全球性的，但比我們，我們的規模也是他們的兩倍。

For example, in transaction banking, especially as Citi, and then you go down to peers who are lot more than us. You won't see it yet, but just so you're aware, the peer group for reminiscing purposes has changed this year and there are more Asian peers within it. So we have made a few changes to peer groups who are actually making more Asia-centricity growth for the bank and moves more to Asia. So that's all in the accounts. Go ahead and have a look at that.

例如，在交易銀行業務中，尤其是花旗銀行，然後你會找到比我們多得多的同行。你現在還看不到，但你要知道，今年以懷舊為目的的同齡人群體發生了變化，其中有更多的亞洲同齡人。因此，我們對實際上為銀行帶來更多以亞洲為中心的增長並更多地轉移到亞洲的同行群體進行了一些改變。所以這就是所有的帳戶。繼續看看那個。

Yes, sure. One last piece of Lee's question. So he also asks us, as it relates to the securities with LIBOR-based coupons, should we be expecting LIBOR consents solicitation to be announced by June 30 year?

是的，當然。李的最後一個問題。因此，他還問我們，因為它與基於 LIBOR 的息票的證券有關，我們是否應該期待 LIBOR 同意徵集將於今年 6 月 30 日公佈？

So Lee, as we have said before, we have no intention of leaving investors with LIBOR risk without -- before offering them a modern alternative. That is, of course, depending security by security when that impacts you. In the case of the Disco s specifically, there is a more -- a closer time frame for us to look at that. So you should expect something imminent from us in terms of offering remediation for those. The form of that offering is still under discussion. We haven't concluded what it is, but you should expect something in that regard.

所以 Lee，正如我們之前所說，我們無意讓投資者承擔 LIBOR 風險，而不是在為他們提供現代替代方案之前。也就是說，當然，當它影響到你時，取決於安全性。特別是在 Disco s 的情況下，我們有一個更近的時間框架來研究它。因此，在為這些問題提供補救方面，您應該期待我們迫在眉睫的事情。該產品的形式仍在討論中。我們還沒有得出結論，但你應該在這方面有所期待。

The next question has come from Rob Smalley from UBS.

下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Rob Smalley。

First, on net interest margin developments. We've seen -- and you're projecting a continued strong growth in the margin even with a 50% pass-through of an increase in rates. Could you talk about the development, particularly Hong Kong versus the U.K? I think that some of your peers in the U.K. are seeing peak net interest margin now. And where are you seeing growth in yours? That's the first question.

首先，關於淨息差的發展。我們已經看到 - 即使利率上漲 50%，您也預計利潤率將持續強勁增長。你能談談發展，特別是香港與英國的關係嗎？我認為您在英國的一些同行現在看到淨息差達到峰值。你在哪裡看到你的增長？這是第一個問題。

Second, U.K. related, again, you have a lot of liquidity at the bank. Any other plans to deploy it in any other way? I know that the easy answer is if we could, we would have already, but anything that changed there? And then finally, on the ECL charge, $600 million for Mainland China, $800 million for the rest of the book. Could you talk about the methodology there, whether there's more -- whether there's idiosyncratic risk in there? How much of that is model-driven? And how you came to that number?

其次，與英國有關，同樣，你在銀行有很多流動性。還有其他計劃以任何其他方式部署它嗎？我知道簡單的答案是如果可以的話，我們早就這樣做了，但是那裡有什麼改變嗎？最後，關於 ECL 費用，中國大陸 6 億美元，賬簿其餘部分 8 億美元。你能談談那裡的方法論，是否還有更多 - 那裡是否存在特殊風險？其中有多少是模型驅動的？你是怎麼得出這個數字的？

Thanks for the questions. So let's start with NII. So as you saw, we had NII for Q4 of $9.6 billion. If you annualize that number, it gives you about $38 billion of NII. We had a lot of questions earlier today as to what should be our guidance of NII for the full year. And what we have said is we haven't changed our guidance. What we are saying is that we are flagging more than $36 billion of NII for 2023. Then we think about it is there are a few tailwinds and there are a few headwinds.

感謝您的提問。那麼讓我們從 NII 開始吧。因此，正如您所見，我們在第四季度擁有 96 億美元的 NII。如果你對這個數字進行年化計算，它會給你大約 380 億美元的 NII。今天早些時候，我們對 NII 全年的指導方針有很多疑問。我們所說的是我們沒有改變我們的指導方針。我們所說的是，我們為 2023 年標記了超過 360 億美元的 NII。然後我們考慮它是有一些順風和一些逆風。

On the tailwind side, we have still components of the rates that haven't repriced -- the rates that we have seen so far that haven't repriced yet in our book so that's a tailwind. There are some potential additional rate moves that are still in the tailwind. And FX calculations gives us about $0.5 billion upside versus when we flagged that more than $36 billion.

在順風方面，我們仍然有尚未重新定價的利率組成部分——我們目前看到的尚未在我們的賬簿中重新定價的利率，因此這是一個順風。有一些潛在的額外利率變動仍在順風。外匯計算為我們提供了約 5 億美元的上漲空間，而當我們標記為超過 360 億美元時。

Conversely, there are a few headwinds. The headwinds are potential increases in pass-throughs. Our pass-through so far have been inside a 50% long-term averages. We're expecting from this point on the pass-throughs start to become closer to the 50%, which implies more than 50% from this point on. An additional tailwind -- an additional headwind is also on the migrations of clients from savings accounts to term deposit that is particularly relevant in the Hong Kong market, which is extremely competitive, much less in the U.K. market.

相反，有一些不利因素。逆風是傳遞的潛在增加。到目前為止，我們的傳遞率一直在 50% 的長期平均水平內。我們預計從這一點開始，傳遞開始變得更接近 50%，這意味著從這一點開始超過 50%。另一個有利因素——另一個不利因素是客戶從儲蓄賬戶轉向定期存款，這在香港市場尤為重要，香港市場競爭非常激烈，英國市場就更不用說了。

So when you put all those things together, we end up with the guidance and we provide at least $36 billion and more than $36 billion for the year. In terms of the U.K., the U.K. market is -- they're starting to see some sign of competition in the U.K. market, but it's still far from what we see in Hong Kong. So at the moment, we're quite confident with the guidance that we have given.

所以當你把所有這些東西放在一起時，我們最終得到了指導，我們今年提供了至少 360 億美元和超過 360 億美元。就英國而言，英國市場是——他們開始在英國市場看到一些競爭跡象，但與我們在香港看到的情況還相去甚遠。所以目前，我們對我們給出的指導非常有信心。

In terms of liquidity, indeed, we are buying that ends up having a lot of liquidity. What we have done over the last few years is we have become very deliberate about our liquidity management, which clearly is helping us in this up cycle, having surplus liquidity is increasing rate is a competitive advantage. But broadly speaking, we created a framework to look at surplus liquidity in each of the entities that looks at what the liquidity should be. And then we look at what the surplus in each of the entities is, and then we lay out a framework that looks at how we deplore that liquidity, how do we invest that liquidity or how do we reduce if deploying and investing are not appropriate.

事實上，就流動性而言，我們購買的是最終擁有大量流動性的股票。我們在過去幾年所做的是，我們對流動性管理變得非常慎重，這顯然在這個上升週期中幫助了我們，擁有過剩的流動性正在增加利率是一種競爭優勢。但從廣義上講，我們創建了一個框架來查看每個實體的過剩流動性，該框架著眼於流動性應該是多少。然後我們看看每個實體的盈餘是多少，然後我們制定了一個框架，看看我們如何譴責這種流動性，我們如何投資這種流動性，或者如果部署和投資不合適我們如何減少。

Deploying is about business opportunities. Investments are at the margin if you have the liquidity, what you can do without increasing the risk profile for the bank. And the reduction is about offering different products to our clients and potentially finding intercompany solutions. So we put all those things together, we are quite active. I would say, given the current rate environment, the reduced dimension has become less of a priority than it was when we started this a couple of years ago. Richard, do you want to cover China?

部署是關於商業機會。如果您有流動性，您可以在不增加銀行風險狀況的情況下進行投資。減少是為了向我們的客戶提供不同的產品，並可能找到公司間的解決方案。所以我們把所有這些東西放在一起，我們非常活躍。我想說的是，鑑於當前的利率環境，與幾年前我們開始這項工作時相比，減少維度的優先級已經降低了。理查德，你想報導中國嗎？

Yes. Charges you expect is on a bottom line basis. But you're right, to some extent, the $600 million on [ECL charge] is based on a sort of on us view of our particular borrowers and their particular situation and circumstances. And then clearly, we then look at it at an overall provision coverage level, in a sense for what's the downside scenario. What appears in and so on and so forth. So as we said this morning, we're comfortable with that charge as of 31st of December. And we also set up the situation in that sector has improved.

是的。您期望的費用是基於底線的。但你是對的，在某種程度上，6 億美元的 [ECL 費用] 是基於我們對特定借款人及其特定情況和情況的看法。然後很明顯，我們然後在整體準備金覆蓋水平上看它，從某種意義上說是什麼是不利的情況。出現在等等等等。因此，正如我們今天早上所說，截至 12 月 31 日，我們對這筆費用感到滿意。而且我們還設立了該部門的情況有所改善。

Since the year-end, it's still very early days. I think there's still a lot to work through, but I think you've seen positive policy developments in the last couple of months, whereas in Q4, you do see some deterioration. So it's still -- we're still very moderate on that sector, but more positive.

自年底以來，現在還很早。我認為還有很多工作要做，但我認為你在過去幾個月看到了積極的政策發展，而在第四季度，你確實看到了一些惡化。所以它仍然 - 我們對該部門仍然非常溫和，但更加積極。

The rest of the, don't know what to say really, 30 bps, broadly spread U.K., a pretty normal charge Mexico, pretty normal charge. Those are our big books. So again, broadly split between retail and wholesale. No big tool trees in there or no big sort of overlays or what are called [fig] adjusted for economic guidance adjustments. So a pretty standard quarter for the book outside the China CRE, $600 million chart, which we called out separately.

其餘的，真的不知道該說什麼，30 個基點，英國廣泛傳播，墨西哥非常正常的收費，非常正常的收費。那些是我們的大書。同樣，零售和批發之間存在廣泛差異。那裡沒有大型工具樹，也沒有大型疊加層或所謂的 [圖] 針對經濟指導調整進行調整。因此，對於中國 CRE 之外的這本書來說，這是一個非常標準的季度，6 億美元的圖表，我們單獨提出了這一點。

So can we assume that the go-forward ECL from a model-driven basis without anything idiosyncratic should be in around 30 basis points over the next several quarters?

那麼我們是否可以假設在接下來的幾個季度中，模型驅動的基礎上沒有任何異質性的前瞻性 ECL 應該在 30 個基點左右？

We're hedged to 40 and that as you know, our sort of guidance range, if you like, is 30 to 40. So we're at the top end of that range. That reflects a difficult sort of economic circumstances at the moment with high inflation and so on and so forth, some companies going through cash flow difficulty seen in the retail sector. So that's the reason why we struck it at the top end of the range. Obviously, the CRE, as we mentioned already, has -- we've been making provisions there over the last 18 months or so. So 30 to 40 is our guidance range. And for now, West to get at the top of that range given our caution early in the year and given the -- dew to the economic circumstances, which much of the world has found itself in the last few months.

我們對沖到 40，正如你所知，我們的指導範圍是 30 到 40。所以我們處於該範圍的頂端。這反映出目前經濟形勢嚴峻，通貨膨脹率高等等，一些公司正經歷著零售業的現金流困難。所以這就是我們將其置於範圍頂端的原因。顯然，正如我們已經提到的那樣，CRE 已經 - 我們在過去 18 個月左右的時間裡一直在那裡制定規定。所以30到40是我們的指導範圍。而現在，鑑於我們在今年年初的謹慎態度以及對經濟環境的露水，西方將達到該範圍的頂部，世界上大部分地區在過去幾個月中都發現了自己。

Thanks, Ron. So we've got some more questions submitted over chat. So from Rob Thomas, at T. Rowe Price. Rob asks, outside of China CRE, are there any areas of politic -- particular concern that you're monitoring closely? And also, can you update on the progress of the sale of the Canadian business, how is this transaction to occur? And what's the timing?

謝謝，羅恩。我們通過聊天提交了更多問題。來自 T. Rowe Price 的 Rob Thomas。 Rob 問，在中國 CRE 之外，是否有任何政治領域——您正在密切關注的特別關注的問題？另外，您能否更新加拿大業務出售的進展情況，這筆交易是如何發生的？時間是什麼時候？

On the first, as you would expect, our 2 big books are, our books in Hong Kong and the U.K. clearly, in Hong Kong, the Hong Kong book joined CRE, which has been the issue, the book outside of that has been very, very, very solid and remain so during in 2022. And so clearly, whilst we're obviously watchful in the market, it's a big market for us.

首先，正如您所料，我們的兩本大書是，我們在香港和英國的書。很明顯，在香港，香港的書加入了 CRE，這一直是問題，那之外的書非常，非常非常穩固，並在 2022 年保持穩定。很明顯，雖然我們顯然在市場上保持警惕，但它對我們來說是一個大市場。

It has had economic difficulties in the last year, touchwood seems to be coming out of those difficulties with reopening pretty strongly, albeit it's still early days there, but certainly all or the signs are positive in terms of Hong Kong recovery during 2022 and beyond. And our other book is U.K.

它在去年遇到了經濟困難，touchwood 似乎正在擺脫這些困難，重新開放相當強勁，儘管現在還處於早期階段，但可以肯定的是，就 2022 年及以後的香港復甦而言，所有或跡像都是積極的。我們的另一本書是英國。

And again, it's really we watch them on small businesses and small and midsized companies, et cetera who -- some of whom have cash flow difficulties. As you're aware, a fair chunk of the small business market is the government guaranteed but even there, and we're obviously watchful. So those are the areas where we really watch full and elsewhere in the world. And I suppose since we're seeing credit risks in this particular sector. You can get 1 or 2 of those each quarter. But I would say those are the major points we watching at the moment.

再一次，我們真的是在關注小型企業和中小型公司等等——其中一些人存在現金流困難。如您所知，小企業市場的很大一部分是政府擔保的，但即便如此，我們顯然也很警惕。所以這些是我們真正觀看完整的區域和世界其他地方。我想因為我們看到了這個特定行業的信用風險。您每個季度可以獲得其中的 1 或 2 個。但我想說的是，這些是我們目前關注的重點。

Except of Canada, nothing to add to. We only just announced it a month or 2 ago. We're working through regulatory processes, as you would expect. And that's on track with nothing more to say. I would expect us to give you a more fulsome update on where we're on the process probably at the half year, we do -- we continue to think that it'll take much of 2023 to work for all the various or the regulatory and other process we've got to work for it.

除了加拿大，沒有什麼可補充的。我們只是在一兩個月前才宣布。正如您所期望的，我們正在通過監管流程。這已經步入正軌，無話可說。我希望我們能夠在半年內向您提供更全面的更新，說明我們在流程中所處的位置，我們確實這樣做了——我們仍然認為需要 2023 年的大部分時間才能滿足所有各種或監管要求以及我們必須為此努力的其他過程。

Thanks for the question, Rob. Another question submitted via text has come from Paul Fenner-Leitao from SocGen. I think, Paul, we've covered your first question. But on the other 2, specifically on Stage 2, a big jump in total balances, but no change in provision. Why is that? And also what can we expect for the remainder of the year or notice the jump is in retail, but you would have thought that corporates would have been the most volatile in the Stage 2 balances.

謝謝你的問題，羅伯。另一個通過文本提交的問題來自 SocGen 的 Paul Fenner-Leitao。保羅，我想我們已經回答了你的第一個問題。但在其他 2 個方面，特別是在第 2 階段，總餘額大幅增加，但準備金沒有變化。這是為什麼？此外，我們對今年剩餘時間的預期是什麼，或者註意到零售業的增長，但你會認為企業在第 2 階段餘額中波動最大。

Yes. The -- I mean it's methodological change on U.K. mortgages, nothing to flag, it's just methodological change. U.K. mortgages do perform well for us. Especially It's a very slow in s class, so really, and it's explained in import account in more detail. It's more of a technical change than the other would flag anything there, particularly more and less concerned, book there perform very well for us. And nothing but to say again, Stage 2 in wholesale, obviously, you've seen some of the China CRE book going from Stage 2 to Stage 3 during particularly in Q4, but also some in Q3 as well, but nothing else to call out there in terms of anything more than normal quarterly volatility in the wholesale Stage 2 area.

是的。 - 我的意思是它是英國抵押貸款的方法論變化，沒有什麼可標記的，這只是方法論的變化。英國抵押貸款對我們來說確實表現良好。特別是它在 s 類中非常慢，真的，並且在 import account 中有更詳細的解釋。它更多的是技術變化，而不是其他人會標記那裡的任何東西，特別是更多和更少的關注，那裡的書對我們來說表現非常好。再說一遍，批發階段 2，顯然，您已經看到一些中國 CRE 書籍從階段 2 進入階段 3，特別是在第四季度，還有一些在第三季度，但沒有其他值得一提的就批發階段 2 區域的正常季度波動而言，存在任何問題。

All right. And thanks for those questions, Paul. (Operator Instructions) Otherwise, we have some more questions submitted over text for Ellie Dann at Morgan Stanley. Ellie, I think we've answered a couple of the questions that you've submitted, but there's a couple here that we should cover. So since I noticed that your AT1 issuance plan is $2 billion and is less than total redemptions for all the AT1 calls you have this year. given you've been operating above the efficient AT1 level of regulators happy to use to reduce your AT1 bucket in calling all of those and not replacing?

好的。保羅，謝謝你提出這些問題。 （操作員說明）否則，我們會通過文本向摩根士丹利的 Ellie Dann 提交更多問題。 Ellie，我認為我們已經回答了您提交的幾個問題，但這裡有幾個問題我們應該討論。因此，自從我注意到您的 AT1 發行計劃為 20 億美元，低於您今年所有 AT1 電話的總贖回額。鑑於您一直在高於高效 AT1 水平的監管機構運行，他們樂於使用來減少您的 AT1 桶來調用所有這些而不是替換？

Thanks for the question. Yes, the answer is yes. The reason an AT1 bucket specifically in terms of regulatory requirements, right, there is a Tier 1 bucket. So we look at the Tier 1 in totality, where the amount of Tier 1 that we're issuing this year in comparison to the calls is indeed part of the plan to normalize the total amount of the AT1 stack to the levels that I -- we think we are comfortable with. So yes, we are comfortable with that. And also the discussion with the regulators is consistently.

謝謝你的問題。是的，答案是肯定的。之所以說AT1 bucket在監管方面特別要求，對，就是有Tier 1 bucket。因此，我們總體上看一下第 1 層，其中我們今年發行的第 1 層數量與調用相比確實是將 AT1 堆棧總量標準化為我的水平的計劃的一部分 -我們認為我們很舒服。所以是的，我們對此感到滿意。與監管機構的討論也是一致的。

And then I think it looks like last 1 from Ellie as well, just the state of the Canadian operations free up some cash for the redemption of legacy securities trading above par?

然後我認為它看起來也像 Ellie 的最後 1 個，只是加拿大業務的狀態釋放了一些現金用於贖回交易高於面值的遺留證券？

We -- that's a creative connection between one area and another which we don't quite connect at all. The way we think about the Canadian proceeds is priority 1 is to pay an extraordinary dividend that we are foreseeing to be $0.21. After that, it's going to be a combination of additional buybacks and investment for growth. We haven't quite decided what the proportion of the last 2 are. That's the way we're thinking about it.

我們 - 這是一個區域與另一個區域之間的創造性聯繫，我們根本沒有完全聯繫。我們考慮加拿大收益的方式是優先考慮 1 是支付我們預計為 0.21 美元的特別股息。在那之後，這將是額外回購和增長投資的結合。我們還沒有完全確定最後兩個的比例是多少。這就是我們考慮的方式。

Perfect. Okay. So well, that wraps up the call. So thank you very much, everyone, for dialing in and for your questions. Please do let us know by the usual channels if you can have any further follow-up questions. Thank you.

完美的。好的。好了，電話到此結束。非常感謝大家撥通電話並提出問題。如果您有任何進一步的後續問題，請通過常規渠道告知我們。謝謝。