滙豐控股 (HSBC) 2022 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Investor and Analyst Conference Call for HSBC Holdings plc's earnings release for the first quarter 2022. For your information, this conference is being recorded.

女士們，先生們，早上好，歡迎參加匯豐控股有限公司 2022 年第一季度收益發布的投資者和分析師電話會議。本次會議正在錄製中，供您參考。

At this time, I will hand the call over to your host, Mr. Ewen Stevenson, Group Chief Financial Officer.

此時，我將把電話轉給您的主持人，集團首席財務官 Ewen Stevenson 先生。

Thanks. And good morning in London and good afternoon in Hong Kong. Thanks for joining today for our first quarter results. I'll run quickly through the presentation and then open up for questions.

謝謝。倫敦早上好，香港下午好。感謝您今天加入我們的第一季度業績。我將快速瀏覽演示文稿，然後提出問題。

At our full year results, Noel and I set out a path back to double-digit returns, strong revenue growth driven by volumes and rising rates and tight cost discipline. Our strategy to get there is on track. All of these building blocks were reflected in our first quarter results, strong underlying volume growth across most of our businesses with $21 billion of lending growth and lending up in every global business and region.

在我們的全年業績中，諾埃爾和我制定了一條回歸兩位數回報、由銷量和利率上升推動的強勁收入增長以及嚴格的成本紀律的道路。我們實現目標的戰略正在走上正軌。所有這些組成部分都反映在我們的第一季度業績中，我們大多數業務的潛在交易量增長強勁，貸款增長為 210 億美元，並在每個全球業務和地區提供貸款。

The benefit of rate rises is now being reflected in our net interest margin. Our net interest margin was up 7 basis points in the quarter, our highest quarterly NIM since the second quarter of 2020. And implied consensus policy rates have further strengthened since full year results with further positive implications for our net interest margin and net interest income in 2022 and 2023.

加息的好處現在反映在我們的淨息差上。本季度我們的淨息差上升了 7 個基點，是自 2020 年第二季度以來的最高季度 NIM。自全年業績以來，隱含的共識政策利率進一步走強，這對我們的淨息差和淨利息收入產生了進一步的積極影響2022 年和 2023 年。

We maintained good cost discipline with adjusted costs down 2% versus first quarter last year, in line with our target of keeping costs flat this year and within a 0% to 2% growth range for 2023.

我們保持良好的成本紀律，調整後的成本與去年第一季度相比下降了 2%，這符合我們今年保持成本持平以及 2023 年增長在 0% 至 2% 範圍內的目標。

Despite more challenged macro conditions this quarter, we remain firmly on track at this point to deliver double-digit returns in 2023. While reported profits before tax were down on last year's first quarter, this mainly reflected a weaker quarter for Wealth driven by a combination of weak markets and Hong Kong COVID restrictions, together with a turnaround towards a more normalized level of expected credit losses from net write-backs in first quarter last year.

儘管本季度宏觀環境面臨更多挑戰，但我們目前仍堅定地走在 2023 年實現兩位數回報的軌道上。雖然報告的稅前利潤較去年第一季度有所下降，但這主要反映了受綜合因素推動的財富季度疲軟市場疲軟和香港新冠疫情限制，以及去年第一季度淨回撥導致的預期信用損失水平向更正常化水平轉變。

On capital, with a 14.1% core Tier 1 ratio, we're now back within our 14% to 14.5% target range. We've completed the $2 billion buyback we announced at our third quarter results, and we expect to launch our next $1 billion buyback in early May following our Annual General Meeting later this week. And with the now expected benefit of higher net interest income in 2023, this should strengthen our returns outlook and our capacity to fund attractive growth in distributions.

在資本方面，核心一級比率為 14.1%，我們現在回到了 14% 至 14.5% 的目標範圍內。我們已經完成了我們在第三季度業績中宣布的 20 億美元的回購，我們預計將在本週晚些時候的年度股東大會之後於 5 月初啟動下一次 10 億美元的回購。鑑於現在預期的 2023 年淨利息收入增加的好處，這應該會加強我們的回報前景和我們為分配的有吸引力的增長提供資金的能力。

On the next slide, we're seeing good momentum across most parts of our franchise, reflecting our focus back to areas of competitive strength. In Wealth and Personal Banking, our underlying insurance business performed well with new business levels equivalent to pre-pandemic sales, and that's despite the closure of the Hong Kong-Mainland China border and the impact of COVID restrictions on Hong Kong branch openings. And our mortgage franchise continues to underpin good growth in Personal Banking.

在下一張幻燈片中，我們看到大部分特許經營權的勢頭良好，這反映了我們對競爭優勢領域的關注。在財富和個人銀行業務方面，我們的基礎保險業務表現良好，新的業務水平相當於大流行前的銷售水平，儘管香港與中國內地邊境關閉以及 COVID 限制對香港分行開業的影響。我們的抵押貸款專營權繼續支持個人銀行業務的良好增長。

In Commercial Banking, we saw strong lending growth of $9 billion or 3% versus the fourth quarter, with Credit and Lending up $6 billion and Trade balances up $3 billion. Commercial Banking fees were also up 13%, the seventh straight quarter of increased fee income in Commercial Banking.

在商業銀行業務中，我們看到與第四季度相比強勁的貸款增長 90 億美元或 3%，信貸和貸款增長 60 億美元，貿易餘額增長 30 億美元。商業銀行費用也增長了 13%，這是商業銀行費用收入連續第七個季度增加。

We were profitable in all regions, including strong performances in the U.K. ring-fenced bank and the Middle East. You will have already seen sustainability announcements, which we're now working hard to implement. And we made further progress in reducing our real estate footprint. With a further 7 buildings closed in the first quarter, our footprint is now down 25% since the end of 2019.

我們在所有地區都實現了盈利，包括在英國圍欄銀行和中東地區的強勁表現。您已經看到了我們正在努力實施的可持續發展公告。我們在減少房地產足跡方面取得了進一步的進展。由於第一季度又關閉了 7 座建築物，我們的足跡自 2019 年底以來下降了 25%。

On the next slide, we provided an update on our business in Hong Kong and Mainland China in light of the material COVID restrictions that have been in place in both markets. In Hong Kong, branch closures and soft markets clearly impacted revenue, but we continued to see good sales activity in the quarter, underpinned by the increasing shift to digital sales and the investment we've made over recent years to support us. Our remote sales capability particularly benefited insurance, which delivered pre-pandemic levels of sales volumes despite the branch closures and the continued closure of the Mainland China border.

在下一張幻燈片中，我們根據兩個市場實施的重大 COVID 限制，提供了我們在香港和中國大陸業務的最新情況。在香港，分行關閉和市場疲軟顯然影響了收入，但我們在本季度繼續看到良好的銷售活動，這得益於越來越多地轉向數字銷售以及我們近年來為支持我們所做的投資。我們的遠程銷售能力尤其受益於保險業，儘管分行關閉和中國內地邊境繼續關閉，但保險業仍實現了大流行前水平的銷售量。

As we've seen globally, with the short cycle of Omicron, Hong Kong is now starting to reopen. Our branches are operating normally again as of last week, and we expect client activity to begin to normalize as a result. In Mainland China, we had another solid performance despite the impact of COVID restrictions on our own team and more widely. Revenues were 9% -- were up 9% on last year's first quarter. Lending grew by $6 billion or 11% with a strong Commercial Banking performance as the standout.

正如我們在全球範圍內看到的那樣，隨著 Omicron 的短週期，香港現在開始重新開放。自上週以來，我們的分支機構再次正常運營，我們預計客戶活動將因此開始正常化。在中國大陸，儘管 COVID 限制對我們自己的團隊和更廣泛的影響，我們還是取得了另一個穩健的表現。收入為 9%，比去年第一季度增長 9%。貸款增長 60 億美元或 11%，其中商業銀行業務表現強勁。

Turning to Slide 5. I've touched on most of this already. Adjusted net interest income was up 10% at $7 billion in the quarter, reflecting both rate rises and balance sheet growth. But non-net interest income was down 16%, mainly due to insurance market impacts and the effects of COVID restrictions on Asia Wealth. Our tangible net asset value per share was $7.80, down $0.08, with profit generation more than offset by fair value movements and the impact of FX.

轉到幻燈片 5。我已經談到了大部分內容。本季度調整後的淨利息收入增長 10%，達到 70 億美元，反映了利率上升和資產負債表的增長。但非淨利息收入下降了 16%，主要是由於保險市場的影響以及新冠疫情限制對亞洲財富的影響。我們的每股有形資產淨值為 7.80 美元，下降 0.08 美元，利潤產生被公允價值變動和外匯影響所抵消。

Turning to revenue on the next slide. While Wealth and Personal Banking revenue was down 6%, the bulk of this was due to insurance market impacts. We had a good Personal Banking performance. Revenues up 7% on first quarter last year, benefiting from rate rises and balance sheet growth. This was offset, however, by a weaker quarter in Wealth with revenues down 19% driven by the impact of weaker markets and Hong Kong COVID restrictions.

在下一張幻燈片上轉向收入。雖然財富和個人銀行業務收入下降了 6%，但其中大部分是由於保險市場的影響。我們的個人銀行業務表現良好。得益於加息和資產負債表的增長，去年第一季度的收入增長了 7%。然而，由於市場疲軟和香港 COVID 限制的影響，Wealth 的季度收入下降了 19%，這抵消了這一點。

Commercial Banking revenue was up 9%, spread across all our main products with continued good fee income growth. GLCM and Trade were the standout performers, GLCM up 21%, reflecting both higher balances and higher interest rates and Trade reflecting continued balance growth. While Global Banking and Markets revenue was down 4%, this was mainly from lower revaluation gains and principal investments. Markets and Securities Services, revenues were down 2% against the strong first quarter last year, underpinned by good performance in FX, up 15%. Global Banking was up 4%, reflecting our different business mix to many peers, with GLCM revenues up 21% from higher rates and volumes.

商業銀行業務收入增長 9%，分佈在我們所有主要產品中，手續費收入繼續保持良好增長。 GLCM 和 Trade 表現突出，GLCM 上漲 21%，反映出更高的餘額和更高的利率，而 Trade 則反映了余額的持續增長。雖然全球銀行和市場收入下降了 4%，但這主要是由於較低的重估收益和本金投資。市場和證券服務部門的收入比去年第一季度的強勁表現下降了 2%，這得益於外匯業務的良好表現，增長了 15%。全球銀行業務增長 4%，反映了我們與許多同行不同的業務組合，GLCM 收入因利率和交易量的增加而增長 21%。

On Slide 7, net interest income was $7 billion, up $483 million versus last year's first quarter. This was mainly driven by higher rates and volumes, particularly in Wealth and Personal Banking and Commercial Banking. On rates, the net interest margin was 106 -- 126 basis points. That's up 7 basis points on the fourth quarter. Implied consensus policy rates have further strengthened since full year results with further positive implications for net interest income in 2022 and 2023, giving us even greater confidence in achieving double-digit returns in 2023.

在幻燈片 7 上，淨利息收入為 70 億美元，與去年第一季度相比增加了 4.83 億美元。這主要是由於較高的利率和交易量，特別是在財富和個人銀行業務以及商業銀行業務。在利率方面，淨息差為 106 - 126 個基點。這比第四季度上升了 7 個基點。自全年業績以來，隱含的共識政策利率進一步加強，對 2022 年和 2023 年的淨利息收入產生了進一步的積極影響，使我們更有信心在 2023 年實現兩位數的回報。

On the next slide, on credit performance. We've reported a net charge of $642 million of ECLs in the quarter, some 25 basis points of average loans. The overall quality of our loan book remains good. Stage 3 loans as a percentage of total loans are stable at 1.8%. The ECL charge includes around $250 million relating to Russia exposures and around $160 million relating to China commercial real estate. We've released most of our remaining COVID-19 provisions, some $600 million in the quarter. This was largely offset by additional reserves of $525 million, comprising $275 million of forward economic guidance driven additional expected credit losses and a $250 million central management provision, reflecting a cautious approach given the increased economic uncertainty. We continue to expect ECLs to normalize towards 30 basis points of average loans for the year.

在下一張幻燈片上，關於信貸表現。我們報告本季度 ECL 的淨費用為 6.42 億美元，約為平均貸款的 25 個基點。我們貸款賬簿的整體質量仍然良好。第三階段貸款佔總貸款的百分比穩定在 1.8%。 ECL 費用包括與俄羅斯風險敞口有關的約 2.5 億美元和與中國商業房地產有關的約 1.6 億美元。我們已經釋放了大部分剩餘的 COVID-19 準備金，本季度約為 6 億美元。這在很大程度上被 5.25 億美元的額外準備金所抵消，其中包括 2.75 億美元的前瞻性經濟指引驅動的額外預期信貸損失和 2.5 億美元的中央管理準備金，反映了鑑於經濟不確定性增加而採取的謹慎態度。我們繼續預計預期信用損失將正常化至全年平均貸款 30 個基點。

Turning to Slide 9. First quarter adjusted operating costs were down 2% on the same period last year driven by continued cost control and the lower performance-related pay accrual relative to last year's first quarter. As in previous quarters, we are continuing to invest in technology while reducing other BAU costs. We've made a further $600 million of cost program savings during the first quarter with cost to achieve spend of around $400 million. We remain on track to achieve the higher end of our $5 billion to $5.5 billion of cost savings over the 3 years to the end of this year, with at least a further $0.5 billion of cost savings from this program now expected in 2023.

轉到幻燈片 9。第一季度調整後的運營成本比去年同期下降了 2%，這是由於持續的成本控制和與去年第一季度相比較低的與績效相關的應計薪酬。與前幾個季度一樣，我們將繼續投資於技術，同時降低其他 BAU 成本。我們在第一季度進一步節省了 6 億美元的成本計劃，實現支出的成本約為 4 億美元。在截至今年年底的 3 年內，我們仍有望實現 50 億至 55 億美元的成本節約，預計到 2023 年，該計劃至少會進一步節約 5 億美元的成本。

To reiterate, despite a low run rate cost to achieve in the quarter, we continue to expect to have total cost to achieve spend of around $3.4 billion this year, which will complete our combined cost to achieve spend of $7 billion when the 3-year program ends in the fourth quarter of this year. We remain on track to achieve stable costs this year compared with 2021, and we remain committed to keeping underlying cost growth in 2023 within a 0 to 2% growth range.

重申一下，儘管本季度實現的運營成本較低，但我們繼續預計今年實現支出的總成本約為 34 億美元，這將完成我們在 3 年時實現 70 億美元支出的綜合成本。計劃於今年第四季度結束。與 2021 年相比，我們今年仍有望實現穩定的成本，我們仍致力於將 2023 年的基本成本增長保持在 0% 至 2% 的增長范圍內。

Turning to capital on Slide 10. Our core Tier 1 ratio was 14.1%, down 170 basis points on the fourth quarter and back to being within 14% to 14.5% target range. We flagged the impact of regulatory changes and the unwind of software capitalization benefits at our full year results. Together, these reduced our core Tier 1 ratio by around 80 basis points in the quarter, and the dividend accrual and the announced additional $1 billion buyback accounted for another 30 basis points.

在幻燈片 10 上轉向資本。我們的核心一級比率為 14.1%，比第四季度下降 170 個基點，回到 14% 至 14.5% 的目標範圍內。我們在全年業績中標出了監管變化的影響和軟件資本化收益的減少。這些因素一起使我們在本季度的核心一級比率降低了約 80 個基點，而應計股息和宣布的額外 10 億美元回購又佔了 30 個基點。

In addition, the steepening of the yield curves on financial assets, designated as hold to collect and sell, reflected a negative after-tax reserve movements of $3.1 billion or around 40 basis points, which was reflected in other comprehensive income and our core Tier 1.

此外，被指定為持有以收集和出售的金融資產收益率曲線變陡，反映了 31 億美元或約 40 個基點的負稅後儲備變動，這反映在其他綜合收益和我們的核心一級.

Reported RWAs were up $24 billion on the fourth quarter due largely to regulatory changes and lending growth, partly offset by ongoing risk-weighted asset saves and FX movements. Our cumulative RWA saves are now $112 billion. We're firmly on track to achieve our new ambition of at least $120 billion of cumulative RWA saves by this year-end.

報告的風險加權資產在第四季度增加了 240 億美元，主要是由於監管變化和貸款增長，部分被持續的風險加權資產儲蓄和外匯變動所抵消。現在，我們的 RWA 累計節省為 1120 億美元。我們堅定地朝著在今年年底前實現至少 1200 億美元累積 RWA 的新目標邁進。

Just as a reminder, later this year, we expect an impact of around 35 basis points of core Tier 1 from the sale of our French retail business, which we expect to contribute to us falling below our 14% to 14.5% target range during the coming quarters. But as I said at our full year results, our intention is to manage within the 14% to 14.5% range over time.

提醒一下，今年晚些時候，我們預計出售我們的法國零售業務將對核心一級核心業務產生約 35 個基點的影響，我們預計這將有助於我們在即將到來的幾個季度。但正如我在全年業績中所說，我們的意圖是隨著時間的推移在 14% 至 14.5% 的範圍內進行管理。

We've now completed our $2 billion buyback announced in October, and we expect to launch our next $1 billion buyback in early May following our AGM later this week.

我們現在已經完成了 10 月宣布的 20 億美元的回購，我們預計將在本週晚些時候的年度股東大會之後於 5 月初啟動下一次 10 億美元的回購。

As we're now at the bottom of our target range due to the impact of fair value market losses and that we're continuing to see good expected growth in the business, we're now unlikely to announce further buybacks during 2022. However, buybacks remain an integral part of our capital management toolkit going forward.

由於公允價值市場損失的影響，我們現在處於目標範圍的底部，並且我們繼續看到業務的良好預期增長，我們現在不太可能在 2022 年宣布進一步回購。但是，回購仍然是我們未來資本管理工具包中不可或缺的一部分。

So to conclude, despite a tougher set of operating conditions this quarter, we remain very focused on getting back to double-digit returns in 2023. To achieve this, we need to see good volume growth, rising rates and cost discipline. All of these attributes were there in these results. Underlying volumes grew in most parts of our business, underpinned by lending growth of $21 billion. Our net interest margin rose 7 basis points for our highest quarterly net interest margin since the second quarter of 2020, and costs declined by 2%.

因此，總而言之，儘管本季度的經營條件更為嚴峻，但我們仍然非常專注於在 2023 年恢復兩位數的回報。為了實現這一目標，我們需要看到良好的銷量增長、利率上升和成本紀律。所有這些屬性都存在於這些結果中。在 210 億美元的貸款增長的支持下，我們大部分業務的基礎交易量都有所增長。我們的淨息差上升了 7 個基點，是自 2020 年第二季度以來的最高季度淨息差，成本下降了 2%。

So despite the macro environment impacting Wealth revenues and expected credit losses this quarter, the fundamentals of the benefit of rising rates have only strengthened since our full year results, increasing our confidence in delivering double-digit returns in 2023 and our capacity to fund attractive growth in distributions.

因此，儘管宏觀環境影響了本季度的財富收入和預期的信貸損失，但自我們全年業績以來，利率上升帶來的好處的基本面只會得到加強，這增強了我們在 2023 年實現兩位數回報的信心以及我們為有吸引力的增長提供資金的能力在分佈。

With that, Martin, if we could please open up for questions.

有了這個，馬丁，如果我們可以請打開問題。

(Operator Instructions) We will now take our first question today. This comes from the line of Joseph Dickerson of Jefferies.

（操作員說明）我們現在將回答今天的第一個問題。這來自 Jefferies 的 Joseph Dickerson。

Just a quick one. Just on the Q1 noninterest income. I mean, how much of this is frankly backward-looking given you've got a lot of market impacts, et cetera? And it sounds like your commentary -- from your commentary, things are starting to pick up in Hong Kong. Can we start to see some -- I guess, are you able to recoup some of the "lost revenue" from things like Wealth sales and markets will do what they will? But I guess it seems like if most of this is backward-looking, you're set for quite a rebound in noninterest income over the coming quarters. I just would like your commentary on that, please.

只是一個快速的。就第一季度的非利息收入而言。我的意思是，考慮到你有很多市場影響等等，坦率地說，其中有多少是向後看的？這聽起來像是你的評論——從你的評論來看，香港的情況開始好轉。我們可以開始看到一些——我猜，你能從財富銷售和市場會做他們想做的事情中收回一些“損失的收入”嗎？但我想，如果其中大部分是回顧性的，那麼未來幾個季度的非利息收入將出現相當大的反彈。我只是想請你對此發表評論。

Yes, Joseph, thanks. I think it's a mix. So there will be insurance market impacts. Obviously, that will depend on the performance of markets in the second quarter, but we certainly wouldn't -- are not anticipating the same extent of negative market adjustment that we saw in Q1. There are some line items like equity brokerage, the flow business that obviously equity brokerage volumes for us in Hong Kong were down almost 50% in the quarter. We do expect that to normalize back. Q1 is normally our strongest quarter, but we don't think we'll recoup the flow business that we lost in Q1.

是的，約瑟夫，謝謝。我認為這是一個混合體。所以會有保險市場的影響。顯然，這將取決於第二季度的市場表現，但我們當然不會——預計不會出現與第一季度相同程度的負面市場調整。有一些線項目，如股票經紀，流量業務顯然對我們來說在香港的股票經紀量在本季度下降了近 50%。我們確實希望這會恢復正常。第一季度通常是我們最強勁的季度，但我們認為我們不會收回我們在第一季度失去的流量業務。

If you look at something like mutual fund sales, which in Hong Kong were down around 30%, I think it will be a mix. So I do think part of that we should recoup in the coming quarters. So overall, I would -- I think you'll see a decent recovery in Q2, Q3, Q4. Some of what happened in Q1, I think, is lost. And just remember that Q1 is our strongest quarter normally, so you have to seasonalize my comments that I've just made.

如果你看看像共同基金銷售這樣的東西，在香港下降了 30% 左右，我認為這將是一個混合。因此，我確實認為我們應該在接下來的幾個季度中收回其中的一部分。所以總的來說，我認為你會在第二季度、第三季度和第四季度看到一個不錯的複蘇。我認為第一季度發生的一些事情已經丟失。請記住，第一季度通常是我們最強勁的季度，所以你必須對我剛剛發表的評論進行季節性調整。

We will now take your next question. This comes from the line of Aman Rakkar of Barclays.

我們現在將回答您的下一個問題。這來自巴克萊的 Aman Rakkar 的血統。

Two questions, if I may. One on revenue. You're slightly not firm in net interest income outlook, but note that you retain the kind of mid-single-digit revenue growth aspiration for this year. So I just wanted to be exactly clear on to what extent there was an offset in noninterest income. Is this simply because of the activity impact in Hong Kong and China? And what kind of assumptions are you making about reopening when you're thinking about mid-single-digit revenue growth in 2022?

兩個問題，如果可以的話。一是收入。您對淨利息收入前景略顯不堅定，但請注意，您保留了今年中個位數收入增長的願望。所以我只是想清楚地知道非利息收入在多大程度上被抵消了。這僅僅是因為香港和中國的活動影響嗎？當您考慮到 2022 年中個位數的收入增長時，您對重新開放做出了什麼樣的假設？

The second was around FX. I think this is something typically consensus struggles to model very well for HSBC. And I note that there is a pretty meaningful revenue headwind from FX of about $1.4 billion based on March, offset by $900 million lower costs based on the average FX in March. If I was to look at spot FX rates, they're probably even a touch weaker here.

第二個是圍繞 FX。我認為這是典型的共識努力為匯豐銀行建模。而且我注意到，基於 3 月份的外匯收入存在相當大的不利影響，約為 14 億美元，這被基於 3 月份平均外彙的 9 億美元成本降低所抵消。如果我看一下即期外匯匯率，它們在這裡可能甚至更弱一些。

Particularly for revenues, if I was to rebase your 2021 revenue for the updated FX and factor in your mid-single-digit revenue guide, it probably is pointing to 2022 revenues around $51 billion. Consensus is around $53 million. So I mean, does that math sound about right to you? Is there any additional color that you'd add to that?

特別是在收入方面，如果我要根據更新後的外匯調整您 2021 年的收入並考慮到您的中個位數收入指南，那麼它可能指向 2022 年的收入約為 510 億美元。共識約為 5300 萬美元。所以我的意思是，這個數學聽起來對你來說是正確的嗎？你有什麼額外的顏色可以添加的嗎？

Yes. So look, we do think that we'll see net interest income growth comfortably in excess of sort of mid-single digits. Yes, the offset by slower non-net interest income growth, particularly given the impacts that we've seen in the first quarter on Asia Wealth, which will hold, which will impact noninterest income for the remainder of the year. But there will be an FX impact. I do think your estimate around $1.4 billion, $1.5 billion is a reasonable estimate of that net interest -- that FX impact, roughly split, I guess, across noninterest income and net interest income. Your forecast feels a bit light to me, actually, despite everything I've said about the impact of FX. So that's probably all I'm going to say in your own forecast.

是的。所以看，我們確實認為我們會看到淨利息收入增長輕鬆超過中個位數。是的，被非淨利息收入增長放緩所抵消，特別是考慮到我們在第一季度看到的對亞洲財富的影響，這將持續下去，這將影響今年剩餘時間的非利息收入。但是會有外匯影響。我確實認為您的估計約為 14 億美元，15 億美元是對淨利息的合理估計——我猜，外匯影響大致分為非利息收入和淨利息收入。實際上，儘管我對外彙的影響說了很多話，但你的預測對我來說有點輕率。所以這可能就是我在你自己的預測中要說的全部內容。

Your next question today comes from the line of Raul Sinha of JPMorgan.

您今天的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Raul Sinha。

Maybe the first one, just focusing a little bit on the NIM trajectory. On Slide 18, you're again showing a very helpful breakdown. And what is interesting here is the U.K. Bank NIM actually improved quite significantly quarter-on-quarter, whereas, clearly, everything else is picking up very nicely as we go along. So I guess my question is, is there anything specific in terms of repricing you're seeing in the U.K. to explain that movement? And related to Hong Kong, are you seeing -- how should we think about the gap between HIBOR and LIBOR? It's about 50 basis points now. HIBOR is obviously lagging the move up in U.S. interest rates. How should we think about that impacting the NII trajectory?

也許是第一個，只是稍微關注 NIM 軌跡。在幻燈片 18 上，您再次展示了一個非常有用的細分。有趣的是，英國銀行淨息差實際上比上一季度顯著提高，而顯然，隨著我們的進展，其他一切都在很好地回升。所以我想我的問題是，你在英國看到的重新定價方面有什麼具體的東西來解釋這一運動嗎？關於香港，您是否看到——我們應該如何看待 HIBOR 和 LIBOR 之間的差距？現在大約是50個基點。 HIBOR 顯然落後於美國利率的上升。我們應該如何看待影響 NII 軌蹟的因素？

And then unrelated, just another follow-up question, if I can, on RWAs. You've obviously had positive credit migration again from asset quality this quarter. I was just wondering what you think about the moving parts in RWAs for the rest of the year.

然後不相關，如果可以的話，只是另一個關於 RWA 的後續問題。顯然，本季度您的資產質量再次出現了積極的信貸遷移。我只是想知道您對今年剩餘時間裡 RWA 的活動部分有何看法。

Okay. On the NIM trajectory in the U.K., I think there's nothing really to call out in relation to asset on the asset side. Continuing pressure, as you all know, in the sort of U.K. mortgage market. But the main thing you're seeing is the benefit of the 2 rate rises that had already come through in the quarter. And as we've talked about, deposit betas being sort of below 50% for the first few rate rises. So we continue to think that we will see very material net interest income growth in the U.K. as policy rates continue to rise over the remainder of the year as we expect.

好的。在英國的 NIM 軌跡上，我認為在資產方面沒有什麼可以真正指出的。眾所周知，英國抵押貸款市場的壓力持續存在。但你看到的主要是本季度已經實現的兩次加息的好處。正如我們所討論的，在最初的幾次加息中，存款貝塔係數略低於 50%。因此，我們繼續認為，隨著政策利率在今年剩餘時間內繼續上升，正如我們預期的那樣，我們將看到英國的淨利息收入增長非常可觀。

In Hong Kong, with HIBOR, consensus is to be -- the current consensus and our own forecast at HSBC, I think, for a 50 basis point rise in Fed funds next month and another 50 in June. If we get that 100 basis point rate rises coming through, it's very difficult to see how HIBOR doesn't react. So if you had asked me at full year results, I would have said we could have envisaged a sort of 6-month lag between HIBOR and U.S. dollar rates. Given the shape of U.S. dollar rate rises that we're now likely to see being much more front-end loaded, I think it's hard to see that gap being more than 1 quarter.

在香港，對於 HIBOR，共識將是——我認為，目前的共識和我們自己在匯豐銀行的預測是，聯邦基金下個月上升 50 個基點，6 月再上升 50 個基點。如果我們得到 100 個基點的加息，很難看出 HIBOR 沒有反應。因此，如果你問我全年業績，我會說我們可以設想 HIBOR 和美元利率之間存在 6 個月的滯後。鑑於我們現在可能會看到美元利率上升的形式更多的是前端負荷，我認為很難看到這一差距超過 1 個季度。

So on risk-weighted assets for the remainder of the year, in terms of things to call out, you've obviously got FX. I don't think there's any material rate movements from here to call out. You've obviously got the impact of M&A to factor through, including the French retail bank exit and a few smaller acquisitions that we've made. But the Q1 was definitely the quarter that we expected to see most of the activity that we've now seen. So it will be a much more normalized trajectory, I think, in the coming quarters.

因此，就今年剩餘時間的風險加權資產而言，就需要注意的事項而言，你顯然擁有外匯。我認為從這裡沒有任何實質性的利率變動可以呼喚。您顯然已經考慮到併購的影響，包括法國零售銀行的退出和我們進行的一些較小的收購。但第一季度絕對是我們預計會看到我們現在看到的大部分活動的季度。因此，我認為，在接下來的幾個季度中，這將是一個更加正常化的軌跡。

That's really helpful. I don't know if I can follow up, but on regulatory changes, last quarter, you had called out about 5% out of your inflation guide for the medium term on regulatory changes. And how much of that is remaining, just thinking more medium term about RWA moves?

這真的很有幫助。我不知道我是否可以跟進，但關於監管變化，上個季度，你已經從中期通脹指南中調出約 5% 的監管變化。還剩下多少，只是考慮更多關於 RWA 變動的中期？

Yes. I mean, I think at the moment, we're through most of it. You then roll forward to the introduction of Basel, I guess, 1st of January '25 maybe. We're actually thinking that will be a small net benefit to us. Even further forward by the time we're out to 2030, we may see the impact of output floors at that point, which would be -- I think unless we adjusted our business model, would be a negative at that point. But certainly, over the next few years, I think we're through the bulk of it. And as I say, in 1 January '25, as we currently model, we think Basel will be a net positive for us.

是的。我的意思是，我認為目前，我們已經完成了大部分。然後，您可能會在 25 年 1 月 1 日推出巴塞爾協議。我們實際上認為這對我們來說是一個很小的淨收益。到 2030 年甚至更進一步，我們可能會看到那時產出底線的影響，我認為除非我們調整我們的商業模式，否則屆時將是負面的。但可以肯定的是，在接下來的幾年裡，我認為我們已經度過了大部分時間。正如我所說，在 25 年 1 月 1 日，按照我們目前的模型，我們認為巴塞爾將對我們產生淨積極影響。

Our next question today comes from the line of Jason Napier of UBS.

我們今天的下一個問題來自瑞銀的 Jason Napier。

Two, please, both on net interest income. The first is if we take 4% volume growth over the year and just run it into 2023 and then give you about 150 basis points of kind of yield curve moves, I'm getting sort of $37 billion to $38 billion of net interest income. Consensus is sort of in the 33s. I take what you're saying about FX, but I guess we've all got our opinions on using a 50% deposit beta in the math. Is there anything kind of wrong with volumes plus 150 basis points that we should know about sort of structurally as far as the work forward into next year is concerned? And then I've got a second question.

兩個，請，都是淨利息收入。首先是，如果我們在一年內實現 4% 的銷量增長並一直運行到 2023 年，然後給你大約 150 個基點的收益率曲線變動，我將獲得 370 億至 380 億美元的淨利息收入。共識是在 33 年代。我接受你對外彙的看法，但我想我們都對在數學中使用 50% 存款測試版有自己的看法。就明年的工作而言，交易量加上 150 個基點在結構上是否有什麼問題？然後我有第二個問題。

No. Well, you know that I don't like talking about NIM and NII forecast, Jason. But okay, I think reflecting on what's happened over the last couple of months, I think the average consensus model was probably updated following our full year results in late February. Since then, we've seen very material rate rises coming through in March and April, which I don't think is reflected in consensus. So our internal forecasts are materially ahead of consensus as they currently sit for net interest income in 2023 without commenting on your numbers.

不，你知道我不喜歡談論 NIM 和 NII 預測，Jason。但是，好吧，我想回顧過去幾個月發生的事情，我認為平均共識模型可能會在我們 2 月下旬的全年業績之後更新。從那以後，我們看到 3 月和 4 月出現了非常實質性的加息，我認為這並沒有反映在共識中。因此，我們的內部預測大大超出了共識，因為它們目前是針對 2023 年的淨利息收入而沒有對您的數字發表評論。

Sure. And then the second one, perhaps a more useful one from your perspective. Just in terms of the mechanics of the way that -- I've never quite been able to square the $5 billion number even if you are using a 50% deposit beta. And today, I found myself even less capable of doing that. And I'll tell you why. The unwind of FVOCI is a sort of a $5 billion tailwind. But of course, that only relates to $350 billion in bonds and you've got $1 trillion in loans and deposits that match one another. I just wonder why the rate gearing isn't substantially more than that if the bond tailwind on its own, given what's happened to rates is about $5 billion. Is there something fundamental that I'm getting wrong there that you can spot?

當然。然後是第二個，從您的角度來看，也許是更有用的一個。就這種方式的機製而言——即使你使用的是 50% 的存款測試版，我也永遠無法對 50 億美元的數字進行平方。而今天，我發現自己更沒有能力做到這一點。我會告訴你為什麼。 FVOCI 的平倉是一種 50 億美元的順風。但是，當然，這只涉及 3500 億美元的債券，而你有 1 萬億美元的貸款和存款相互匹配。我只是想知道，考慮到利率的變化約為 50 億美元，如果債券順風順風，為什麼利率槓桿率不會大大增加。有什麼基本的東西我在那裡弄錯了，你可以發現嗎？

Yes. I'm not sure your bond tail is a bond tail, I think. So the way I think about it is we have a gross and net interest rate exposure. We hedge about 20% of our overall net interest income exposure through that bond portfolio that you're referring to, which we've just taken the fair market value losses on. That doesn't provide us with that incremental $4 billion, $5 billion of unwind over the next 5 quarters. We see that benefit and the other 80% of the portfolio. And the interest rate sensitivity that we show you is the net interest rate sensitivity, not the gross interest rate sensitivity.

是的。我不確定你的債券尾巴是債券尾巴，我想。所以我的想法是我們有總和淨利率風險敞口。我們通過您所指的債券投資組合對沖約 20% 的整體淨利息收入敞口，我們剛剛承擔了公允市場價值損失。這並沒有為我們提供在接下來的 5 個季度中增加的 40 億美元、50 億美元的平倉。我們看到了這種好處和投資組合的其他 80%。我們向您展示的利率敏感性是淨利率敏感性，而不是總利率敏感性。

So if we didn't have that portfolio and hedging in place, that $5.4 billion is probably closer to $7 billion or something. So the benefit of higher rates that we've seen coming through that has created the fair market value losses, the benefit of that higher net interest income we won't see in that portfolio, we'll see in the unhedged 80% of the portfolio that we've given you interest rate sensitivity for. I don't know whether that helps or hinders your understanding, Jason.

因此，如果我們沒有那個投資組合和對沖，那 54 億美元可能接近 70 億美元左右。因此，我們看到的更高利率的好處造成了公平的市場價值損失，我們不會在該投資組合中看到更高淨利息收入的好處，我們將在未對沖的 80% 中看到我們為您提供利率敏感性的投資組合。我不知道這對你的理解有幫助還是有礙，傑森。

No, that's very helpful. So that's why your year 1 uplift is $5 billion and your year 3, 4, 5 gets to $8 million, the reversal of that hedge.

不，這很有幫助。所以這就是為什麼你的第 1 年增加了 50 億美元，而你的第 3、4、5 年達到了 800 萬美元，這是對沖的逆轉。

Yes.

是的。

Your next question today comes from the line of Yafei Tian of Citigroup.

您今天的下一個問題來自花旗集團的田亞飛。

I have 2. The first one is around the capital market side of the business, a very resilient quarter because of market volatility. Just wanted to get a bit of flavor with April volatility coming down a bit, how you are thinking about the FICC and the capital market side of the revenue for second quarter. And then secondly is to look at Slide 25 where you give quite a lot of color on the impact through OCI. But just wanted to have a better understanding how should we be modeling the coming few quarters, at least the potential OCI impact that is going to come from the higher rates that we're seeing.

我有 2 個。第一個是圍繞業務的資本市場方面，由於市場波動，這是一個非常有彈性的季度。只是想了解一下 4 月份的波動性有所下降，您如何看待 FICC 和第二季度收入的資本市場方面。其次是看幻燈片 25，您在其中對 OCI 的影響進行了很多說明。但只是想更好地了解我們應該如何對未來幾個季度進行建模，至少我們所看到的更高利率將帶來的潛在 OCI 影響。

Yes. So on Global Banking and Markets and the outlook, I mean, I guess, a few things. There's nothing really to call out that surprised us so far in April. So very much tracking according to underlying plans at the moment. We haven't seen any material slowdown going on in our markets franchise month-to-date.

是的。所以關於全球銀行和市場以及前景，我的意思是，我想，有幾件事。到目前為止，沒有什麼可以讓我們感到驚訝的。因此，目前根據基本計劃進行了非常多的跟踪。到目前為止，我們的市場特許經營權尚未出現任何實質性放緩。

Global Banking, I don't know whether it's asked, but our pipeline continues to look pretty robust and has been pretty resilient. Probably in part, we are less exposed to the U.S. M&A and IPO markets, and some of the other markets that we are exposed to like the Middle East have been outperforming for us.

全球銀行業務，我不知道是否有人問過，但我們的管道看起來仍然很強勁，而且很有彈性。可能部分原因是，我們較少接觸美國併購和 IPO 市場，而我們接觸的其他一些市場（如中東）對我們來說表現出色。

The other thing I would note in our Global Banking markets franchises, a lot of the revenue line items are interest rate sensitive. So security services, GLCM, GTRF, they should outperform on the back of this better rates environment, which will help cushion if there was any weakness that we saw in some of the sort of more traditional investment banking lines and market lines that you would compare with peers. And I do think we're continuing to operate in an environment with higher levels of FX volatility, which, again, should benefit our FX franchise.

在我們的全球銀行市場特許經營權中，我要注意的另一件事是，許多收入項目都對利率敏感。因此，在這種更好的利率環境下，安全服務、GLCM、GTRF 應該會跑贏大市，這將有助於緩解我們在一些更傳統的投資銀行業務線和您可以比較的市場線中看到的任何弱點與同齡人。而且我確實認為我們將繼續在外匯波動性較高的環境中運營，這再次應該有利於我們的外匯業務。

On OCI, I think the only thing to call out is if you take the month-to-date adjustment on the treasury portfolio, there's about an additional $1 billion pretax of fair value losses, which would obviously run through OCI in April.

在 OCI 方面，我認為唯一需要指出的是，如果你對國債投資組合進行本月至今的調整，那麼還有大約 10 億美元的額外稅前公允價值損失，這顯然會在 4 月份貫穿 OCI。

Sorry, would there be anything additional to that $1 billion? Or will we think about it...

抱歉，這 10 億美元還有什麼額外的嗎？還是我們考慮一下...

Very much depends on the forward curve of interest rates from here over the remainder of the quarter. If they didn't move, it would be about $1 billion. If they do move, it will adjust up and down. But just to give you some sense of sensitivity, and please take this as a very broad and basic sensitivity, but every approximately 25 basis points of higher rates across the curve adds about $1 billion of additional fair value losses. And the reverse of that also being true, i.e., if there were 25 basis points lower, that fair value loss would come in by about $1 billion. So I think that will give you enough to model over the quarter, depending on where interest rates are relative to today.

很大程度上取決於本季度剩餘時間內的利率遠期曲線。如果他們不搬家，那將是大約 10 億美元。如果它們確實移動，它將上下調整。但只是為了給您一些敏感性，請將此視為非常廣泛和基本的敏感性，但曲線上每提高大約 25 個基點，就會增加約 10 億美元的額外公允價值損失。反之亦然，即如果降低 25 個基點，公允價值損失將減少約 10 億美元。所以我認為這將給你足夠的時間來模擬本季度，這取決於利率相對於今天的位置。

Got it. How many quarters does that last? So let's say, if rates curve stabilize and I guess from that point onwards, would there be any benefits that we should be thinking about once interest rates stabilize at a certain level from higher treasury returns? Or should we just take that into account from the net interest income sensitivity you have provided?

知道了。持續多少個季度？因此，假設利率曲線穩定，我猜從那時起，一旦利率穩定在一定水平，國債回報率較高，我們應該考慮什麼好處？還是我們應該從您提供的淨利息收入敏感性中考慮到這一點？

No, there will be no latent one-off gain or loss at that point. And then effectively, you'll see the benefit of wherever those rates stabilize come through and net interest income and the net interest margin over time.

不，那時不會有潛在的一次性收益或損失。然後有效地，您將看到這些利率穩定在哪里以及隨著時間的推移淨利息收入和淨息差所帶來的好處。

Our next question today comes from the line of Omar Keenan of Credit Suisse.

我們今天的下一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Omar Keenan。

So as was commented earlier, market expectations for policy rates have moved up since the full year. So I appreciate the sensitivity that's been given on for the year 1 and year 5. Could I perhaps just ask about how you're thinking about things in terms of the net interest margin?

因此，正如之前評論的那樣，市場對政策利率的預期自全年以來有所上升。所以我很欣賞第 1 年和第 5 年的敏感性。我可以問一下您如何看待淨息差方面的事情嗎？

If we think about 2019, I think the Fed funds rate peaked out at about 2.5% and NIMs were quite close to 1.6%. I think they were 1.59% over the year. Has anything changed in terms of the balance sheet structure that would mean that just in terms of checking, that wouldn't be achievable again? Or is that a sort of good target to think about?

如果我們考慮 2019 年，我認為聯邦基金利率在 2.5% 左右達到頂峰，而 NIM 非常接近 1.6%。我認為他們在一年中是 1.59%。資產負債表結構是否發生了任何變化，這意味著僅就檢查而言，這將無法再次實現？或者這是一個值得考慮的好目標？

And just on a related question to rates. Could I ask, I guess, thinking more over the medium term, how comfortable are you that the through-the-cycle 30 basis point loan loss guidance is right for a world where policy rates are close to 3%? I guess the crux of the question there is to try and understand where the negatives from higher rates might offset the positives, then if that inflection rates are substantially higher above 3%.

只是關於費率的相關問題。我想，從中期來看，我是否可以問一下，對於政策利率接近 3% 的世界來說，整個週期 30 個基點的貸款損失指導是否正確？我想問題的癥結在於嘗試了解較高利率的負面因素可能抵消正面因素的影響，然後如果該拐點率大大高於 3%。

Yes. So I mean what's changed since 2019. I mean, firstly, the balance sheet is materially bigger. So average interest-earning assets have gone up materially. So on a rate by volume basis, we should be earning higher net interest income if we return to previous NIM levels. The other thing is I think the market-implied rates, particularly in some markets, are actually higher than 2019. So yes, we certainly expect to see a very strong recovery back in NIM. As you model it through, it may be in some markets that gets you back to higher levels of NIM in different currencies than you had previously and the balance sheet is larger.

是的。所以我的意思是自 2019 年以來發生了什麼變化。我的意思是，首先，資產負債表規模更大。因此，平均生息資產大幅上升。因此，按數量計算，如果我們回到之前的 NIM 水平，我們應該會獲得更高的淨利息收入。另一件事是，我認為市場隱含利率，特別是在某些市場，實際上高於 2019 年。所以，是的，我們當然希望看到 NIM 出現非常強勁的複蘇。當您對其進行建模時，在某些市場中，您可能會以不同的貨幣恢復到比以前更高的 NIM 水平，並且資產負債表更大。

On the 30 -- on the negative impacts of higher rates, look, there's a few things. I mean, firstly, on costs, the higher rates reflects higher inflation. If you looked at our fixed pay increases this year, they were more than double the fixed pay increases that we put through in 2020 or the year before. So we do think we're managing to offset that inflation at the moment by additional cost saves, and we've committed and continue to commit to flat costs this year and keeping cost growth within the 0% to 2% range next year. The higher end of that range reflects very much the impact that we're seeing of inflation.

在 30 日——關於更高利率的負面影響，看，有幾件事。我的意思是，首先，在成本方面，較高的利率反映了較高的通貨膨脹。如果您查看我們今年的固定加薪，它們是我們在 2020 年或前一年實施的固定加薪的兩倍多。因此，我們確實認為我們目前正在設法通過額外的成本節省來抵消通貨膨脹，我們已經承諾並將繼續承諾今年保持成本不變，並將明年的成本增長保持在 0% 到 2% 的範圍內。該範圍的上限在很大程度上反映了我們所看到的通貨膨脹的影響。

On ECLs, I think rates need to go up materially higher than what are currently being -- what we're currently seeing in forward rate curves. Remember, we're starting from decades or century lows in terms of the start of this rate cycle. So we do think they would have to go up materially further than what we currently see implied. So just as a reminder, we've said 30 to 40 basis points during the cycle, not 30. Look, and we continue to be comfortable with that guidance.

在預期信用損失上，我認為利率需要大幅上升，高於目前的水平——我們目前在遠期利率曲線中看到的水平。請記住，就這個利率週期的開始而言，我們是從幾十年或世紀的低點開始的。因此，我們確實認為它們必須比我們目前所看到的進一步大幅上漲。因此，提醒一下，我們在周期中說的是 30 到 40 個基點，而不是 30 個。看，我們繼續對這一指導感到滿意。

Our next question today comes from the line of Tom Rayner of Numis.

我們今天的下一個問題來自 Numis 的 Tom Rayner。

Could you maybe sort of talk us kind of in a bit more detail the sort of the impact of these OCI movements on the capital ratio and how you might expect that to -- the impact to reverse over the next 4 to 6 quarters? Because I guess my concern is that consensus forecast may have already factored in the benefits of higher interest rates based on your sensitivity disclosures and the forward curve but not factored in the negative impacts that you're now flagging on the capital ratio. So I just wonder is there a danger that consensus sort of equity Tier 1 ratio versus consensus NIM might be somehow out of line? If you could maybe talk us through that, please.

您能否更詳細地談談這些 OCI 變動對資本比率的影響，以及您如何預期這種影響會在未來 4 到 6 個季度逆轉？因為我想我擔心的是，基於您的敏感性披露和遠期曲線，共識預測可能已經考慮了更高利率的好處，但沒有考慮到您現在標記的資本比率的負面影響。所以我只是想知道是否存在共識類型的股權一級比率與共識 NIM 可能會以某種方式脫節的危險？如果你能和我們談談，請。

Yes. So on OCI movements, as we talked about today, there would be about another $1 billion pretax movement in April based on how rates have strengthened further in April. And there is a sort of multiplicative effect on our threshold deductions as core Tier 1 declines, then you also -- I think you'll see in the numbers, there's also a sort of meaningful chunk of core Tier 1 impairment that's come through as a result of the reduction in core Tier 1 and the impact that has on threshold deductions together with the increases we've seen in BoCom and now the acquisition of AXA Singapore.

是的。因此，正如我們今天所討論的，在 OCI 變動方面，根據 4 月份利率的進一步走強，4 月份還會有大約 10 億美元的稅前變動。隨著核心 1 級的下降，我們的閾值扣除額會產生一種乘法效應，然後你也會——我想你會在數字中看到，還有一種有意義的核心 1 級減值部分作為核心一級的減少以及對門檻扣除的影響以及我們在交通銀行看到的增長以及現在收購 AXA Singapore 的結果。

Yes, rolling forward, it's not the unwind of -- just a repeat to what I was saying with Jason. It's not the unwind of the fair value losses that benefits net interest income and capital, it's the impact of those higher rates on the 80% of the book roughly that's not hedged. And therefore, we expect it will take about 5 quarters for that higher net interest income to get us back to the same place. We don't think, as I said earlier, that the rate rises -- implied rate rises that we've seen coming through in March and April are reflected in consensus.

是的，向前滾動，這不是放鬆——只是重複我對傑森所說的話。有利於淨利息收入和資本的不是公允價值損失的平倉，而是這些較高利率對賬面上未對沖的大約 80% 的影響。因此，我們預計較高的淨利息收入需要大約 5 個季度才能讓我們回到原來的位置。正如我之前所說，我們認為利率不會上升——我們在 3 月和 4 月看到的隱含利率上升反映在共識中。

If we look at our internal numbers, they are materially ahead of consensus for '23 based on the latest rate curves. So I think what you will see, therefore, as it translates into core Tier 1 is you should get back to the same point on core Tier 1 sometime next year. But in the near term, we'll -- we've had the 40 basis point impact from the fair value losses we've had through the first quarter. We've got about another 10 basis points if you adjust for fair value losses in April or just under 10 basis points.

如果我們看看我們的內部數據，它們大大領先於基於最新利率曲線的 23 年共識。因此，我認為您將看到，因此，當它轉化為核心層 1 時，您應該在明年某個時候回到核心層 1 的同一點。但在短期內，我們將 - 我們從第一季度的公允價值損失中受到 40 個基點的影響。如果您在 4 月份調整公允價值損失或略低於 10 個基點，我們還有大約 10 個基點。

Yes, we will recoup that through higher net interest income over the following 5 quarters. So there will be a timing mismatch on capital. It's that timing mismatch on capital which causes us to say today that we think it is now unlikely that we will do further buybacks in the second half of this year. But the reverse of that should be much higher net interest income, much higher returns, much higher distribution capacity in 2023 and beyond.

是的，我們將在接下來的 5 個季度通過更高的淨利息收入來彌補這一點。因此，資本將出現時間錯配。正是資本的時機錯配導致我們今天說，我們認為現在不太可能在今年下半年進行進一步的回購。但相反的情況應該是更高的淨利息收入、更高的回報、更高的分配能力在 2023 年及以後。

Yes. Okay. But net-net, though, if you are putting through net interest income based on future rate movements, we have to consider the capital implications of those rate movements as well. Is that fair?

是的。好的。但是，如果您根據未來利率變動計算淨利息收入，我們也必須考慮這些利率變動對資本的影響。這公平嗎？

Yes. So I think if I look at consensus today, what hasn't reflected -- it didn't -- hadn't reflected the impact of the fair value losses on capital. Equally, it hadn't reflected the benefit of those interest rate rises on net interest income over time.

是的。所以我認為，如果我今天看一下共識，沒有反映 - 它沒有 - 沒有反映公允價值損失對資本的影響。同樣，它並沒有反映出隨著時間的推移，這些利率上升對淨利息收入的好處。

Yes. Okay. Can I ask a second, just a very quick one, just on Q1 ECL numbers because, obviously, there's lots of moving parts here. And I guess the provisions you've taken for Russia and for China COE reflect everything that you expect at this moment in time. So you won't expect, I guess, to be taking similar provisions for those issues. And with the economic uncertainty as well, there was a charge in there, I think maybe that's just a change in assumptions. But are these all things which we can look at as sort of Q1 noise and really going forward, we should think more about the underlying sort of run rate charge that you flagged and that you expect this year?

是的。好的。我可以問一下嗎，就第一季度 ECL 數字來說，非常快，因為很明顯，這裡有很多活動部件。我猜你為俄羅斯和中國的 COE 規定反映了你目前所期望的一切。所以我猜你不會期望對這些問題採取類似的規定。並且由於經濟的不確定性，其中存在費用，我認為這可能只是假設的變化。但是，這些都是我們可以視為第一季度噪音並真正向前發展的所有事情，我們應該更多地考慮您標記的以及您今年期望的基本運行費率嗎？

Yes. Well, so for Russia, I would say we've obviously spent a lot of time on our Russia exposure. We've been able to do a pretty good estimate of where we think losses will come through. We think that $250 million charge we've taken for Russia is a good estimate of what we can see today. So something dramatic would have to change in relation to the Russia-Ukraine war or our position on our Russian subsidiary to get to a different outcomes of what we've announced today.

是的。好吧，所以對於俄羅斯，我想說我們顯然花了很多時間在俄羅斯的曝光上。我們已經能夠很好地估計我們認為損失會發生在哪裡。我們認為我們為俄羅斯收取的 2.5 億美元費用是對我們今天所看到的情況的一個很好的估計。因此，必須改變與俄羅斯-烏克蘭戰爭或我們在俄羅斯子公司的立場有關的一些戲劇性事情，才能獲得我們今天宣布的不同結果。

On the $160 million-odd of China commercial real estate, yes, I would not make the same statement. You've got a very fluid situation in the China commercial real estate sector. There's been 2 big factors going on. One has been policy tightening that we saw at the back end of last year that started to get unwound at the beginning part of this year. That created a liquidity squeeze that has now eased substantially, but the underlying credit conditions of the China commercial real estate markets continue to be weak. We did see a number of small names go into defaults this quarter. The $160 million charge was a mix of stage 1, 2 and 3.

關於價值 1.6 億美元的中國商業地產，是的，我不會發表同樣的聲明。中國商業地產領域的形勢非常不穩定。有兩個大因素在發生。一個是我們在去年年底看到的緊縮政策，並在今年年初開始放鬆。這造成了流動性緊縮，現已大幅緩解，但中國商業房地產市場的基本信貸狀況仍然疲軟。我們確實看到本季度有一些小公司違約。 1.6 億美元的費用是第一階段、第二階段和第三階段的混合。

It's down materially from the $0.5 billion or so that we took in Q4. But I wouldn't say -- yes, it would be a big (inaudible) to say that was in relation to the remaining provisions required from the China commercial real estate market. But we're not anticipating it will be a material number, and it is contained within the guidance that we've given for full year provisions. So that statement is that we expect to trend towards 30 basis points of ECL provisions this year. Q1 was 25 basis points.

它比我們在第四季度獲得的 5 億美元左右大幅下降。但我不會說——是的，如果說這與中國商業房地產市場所需的剩餘條款有關，那將是一個很大的（聽不清）。但我們並不認為這將是一個重要數字，它包含在我們為全年規定提供的指導中。因此，我們預計今年 ECL 條款將趨向 30 個基點。第一季度為 25 個基點。

Our next question today comes from the line of Ed Firth of KBW.

我們今天的下一個問題來自 KBW 的 Ed Firth。

I just have 2 questions, both on cost really. One was back to the cost to achieve charge. You're obviously running well below that and -- or the annualizing rate, I guess. I know the expectation -- I get what you're saying about the expectation is to pick up in the rest of the year. But in the past, if you haven't spent the money, you then roll it forward into the next year. So should we be expecting that as the sort of the core scenario? Is that the way we should be thinking about it as we look over the rest of this year? And I guess that's the first question.

我只有兩個問題，都是關於成本的。一是回本實現收費。顯然，您的運行速度遠低於該值，而且我猜是年化率。我知道期望——我明白你所說的期望是在今年剩下的時間裡回升。但是在過去，如果您沒有花掉這筆錢，那麼您就可以將其滾動到下一年。那麼我們是否應該將其視為核心場景呢？當我們回顧今年餘下的時間時，我們應該這樣思考嗎？我想這是第一個問題。

And then the second point is, if I look at your cost guidance, flat this year and flat to 2% next year, I mean that is quite markedly different from a number of other global banks who are talking about the need for additional investment, particularly digital payments, et cetera, et cetera. And I'm just wondering why that is so. I mean, is it -- do you feel that you were overinvesting in the past, and therefore, you now -- you can bring it back a bit? Or are they doing stuff that you're not doing? Or why is that sort of that difference in terms of the cost?

然後第二點是，如果我看一下你的成本指導，今年持平，明年持平至 2%，我的意思是這與許多其他全球銀行正在談論需要額外投資的情況截然不同，特別是數字支付等等。我只是想知道為什麼會這樣。我的意思是，你是否覺得你過去過度投資，因此，你現在——你可以把它帶回來一點嗎？還是他們在做你不做的事情？或者為什麼在成本方面會有這種差異？

Okay. So look, on the first one, you shouldn't think of the program drifting into 2023. We have a Board-approved program that expires at the end of this year. We will spend the remaining $2.9 billion, I think it is, between now and the end of the year. And if we don't, we lose it. So our intention is to spend that money. We think it is sensible to spend the money because we can drive up incremental cost savings, and that thinking has factored into our confidence in keeping cost growth to 0% to 2% next year. So our current intention is that we will run very close to spending that $2.9 billion for the remainder of the year. So if you don't see it coming in next quarter, just assume I'm making exactly the same comment when we get to interim results about the flow-through into the second half.

好的。所以看，在第一個方面，你不應該認為該計劃會拖到 2023 年。我們有一個董事會批准的計劃，該計劃將於今年年底到期。我認為，從現在到年底，我們將花費剩下的 29 億美元。如果我們不這樣做，我們就會失去它。所以我們的目的是花掉這筆錢。我們認為花錢是明智的，因為我們可以增加成本節約，而且這種想法已經成為我們對明年將成本增長保持在 0% 到 2% 的信心的因素。因此，我們目前的意圖是，我們將非常接近在今年剩餘時間內花費 29 億美元。因此，如果您在下個季度看不到它，請假設當我們獲得有關流入下半年的中期結果時，我正在發表完全相同的評論。

On the cost program, maybe I should say thanks. I run the cost program. So look, I can't comment on other banks. But look, I think what's clear here is that no top down is very, very committed to delivering on the targets that we've announced to the market. We've got very detailed plans in relation to achieving the flat cost for this year. I would say, for next year, we need to find about an incremental cost savings of about $1 billion. We are working hard on that at the moment. We expect to have that solutions by the time that we get to interim results at the beginning of August.

關於成本計劃，也許我應該說聲謝謝。我運行成本程序。所以看，我不能評論其他銀行。但是看，我認為這裡很清楚的是，沒有自上而下非常非常致力於實現我們向市場宣布的目標。我們有非常詳細的計劃來實現今年的固定成本。我想說，明年，我們需要找到大約 10 億美元的增量成本節省。我們目前正在為此努力。我們希望在 8 月初獲得中期結果時能夠獲得這些解決方案。

And that sort of cost gap is not unusual relative to previous guidance that we've given for future years at this time of the year. We're well developed across a number of work streams and identifying areas that we can strip out of incremental costs. So yes, I would say the cost management here has been transformed over recent years, and you can see that in terms of the overall cost trajectory that we've had from 2019 onwards, where we broadly kept costs flat now '18, '19, '20 -- sorry, '19 through '22.

相對於我們在每年這個時候為未來幾年提供的先前指導，這種成本差距並不罕見。我們在許多工作流和確定我們可以從增量成本中剝離出來的領域都得到了很好的發展。所以，是的，我想說這裡的成本管理近年來已經發生了轉變，你可以看到，就我們從 2019 年開始的整體成本軌跡而言，我們在 18 年和 19 年時大致保持成本不變，'20 - 對不起，'19 到 '22。

Yes. Okay. Just thinking given the inflationary environment, that's obviously a much -- you're actually improving your cost savings and -- rather than holding it flat.

是的。好的。考慮到通貨膨脹的環境，這顯然是一個很大的 - 你實際上是在提高你的成本節約 - 而不是保持不變。

Yes. No, we understand it. And that's why we've got a degree of a range for next year consistent with that.

是的。不，我們理解。這就是為什麼我們在明年有一定程度的範圍與此一致。

Our next question today comes from the line of Guy Stebbings of BNP Paribas.

我們今天的下一個問題來自法國巴黎銀行的 Guy Stebbings。

Most of my questions have been asked and answered. So just a couple on capital to put up then. Could you expand on the hit from the threshold deductions in Q1? I recognize some of it was simply a reflection of the move in the equity base itself, but how much is sort of residual stuff? And was it particularly odd quarter for BoCom treatment? Should we worry about a similar move in the future? Or actually might we see a partial reversal if BoCom dividends sort of come through?

我的大部分問題都已被問及並得到解答。因此，只需投入幾筆資金即可。您能否擴大第一季度扣除門檻的影響？我承認其中一些只是反映了股票基礎本身的變化，但是剩餘的東西有多少呢？交通銀行的待遇是否特別奇怪？我們是否應該擔心將來會出現類似的舉動？或者實際上，如果交通銀行的股息能夠通過，我們可能會看到部分逆轉？

And then on capital longer term, and I don't suppose you'll be able to quantify the helpful commentary on Basel 3.1, expected to be a net positive now pre the output (inaudible). Very broadly, are we talking low single-digit percentage drop in [RDAs] or something of that sort of magnitude? Any additional color there are very helpful.

然後是長期資本，我認為您無法量化關於巴塞爾 3.1 的有用評論，預計現在在產出之前會是淨正面（聽不清）。從廣義上講，我們是在談論 [RDA] 的低個位數百分比下降還是那種幅度的下降？任何額外的顏色都非常有幫助。

Yes. So in terms of the increase in threshold deductions, about $1.3 billion of it comes from the growth in the value of investments in AXA, which is about $600 million; and BoCom, which is about $700 million. And then there's about $800 million is due to the threshold being lower because we've got a lower core Tier 1 ratio, which is as a result of the fair value losses, the loss of core Tier 1 treatment for software intangibles, the dividend accrual and the $1 billion share buyback.

是的。因此，就門檻扣除額的增加而言，其中約 13 億美元來自於 AXA 投資價值的增長，約為 6 億美元；和交通銀行，約 7 億美元。然後大約 8 億美元是由於門檻較低，因為我們的核心一級比率較低，這是由於公允價值損失、軟件無形資產核心一級處理的損失、應計股息以及 10 億美元的股票回購。

I would take it from all of the comments we've been saying today, we think we're back into a cycle of much higher returns, which should drive continued core Tier 1 improvement and therefore help mitigate some of the impacts that we've seen this quarter. Sorry, the second question -- the second question?

我會從我們今天所說的所有評論中理解這一點，我們認為我們已經回到了更高回報的周期，這應該會推動核心 1 級的持續改進，因此有助於減輕我們已經消除的一些影響本季度見過。抱歉，第二個問題——第二個問題？

The second question was just on the Basel 3.1, that color you gave.

第二個問題是關於巴塞爾 3.1，你給的顏色。

Yes. S as we say, we think in 2025, we'll see a modest benefit from -- a bit modest from the introduction of Basel reform, partly -- almost entirely driven by the fact that we've taken most of the impacts upfront, including in this quarter. So I do think over the next couple of years, you'll see a much cleaner RWA trajectory for us with the only thing to pay attention to, which we'll need to give you color on, is the impact of M&A, both buy side and sell side.

是的。 S 正如我們所說，我們認為在 2025 年，我們將看到適度的收益——從巴塞爾改革的引入中得到一點點——幾乎完全是由於我們已經預先承擔了大部分影響這一事實，包括在本季度。所以我確實認為，在接下來的幾年裡，你會看到對我們來說更清晰的 RWA 軌跡，唯一需要注意的是，我們需要給你顏色，是併購的影響，兩者都購買邊和賣邊。

Our next question today comes from the line of Manus Costello of Autonomous.

我們今天的下一個問題來自 Autonomous 的 Manus Costello。

I wanted to ask about the macro situation, please, because there are some negative macro signals coming out of China. We've got lockdowns, the FX is volatile, the yield premium to the U.S. has disappeared now. But you seem to remain quite confident in the outlook and haven't really tempered that enthusiasm much. I just wondered if you could give us more color on why you aren't more worried about the way China is developing at the moment or whether I misread what your comments were.

我想問一下宏觀情況，因為有一些負面的宏觀信號來自中國。我們有封鎖，外匯波動，對美國的收益率溢價現在已經消失。但你似乎對前景仍然充滿信心，並沒有真正緩和這種熱情。我只是想知道你是否可以給我們更多的色彩，說明你為什麼不更擔心中國目前的發展方式，或者我是否誤讀了你的評論。

Yes. No, I mean, they were probably -- I mean, as you know, as we think about Greater China, I mean the impact on Hong Kong is a far more dominant driver of what happens to us. And we are confident that a combination in Hong Kong, a combination of the market reopening as lockdown restrictions get lifted together and, importantly, the likelihood that we're seeing material movements in HIBOR in the coming quarters will mean that we'll see a strong recovery in Hong Kong earnings.

是的。不，我的意思是，他們可能是——我的意思是，正如你所知，當我們考慮大中華地區時，我的意思是對香港的影響是我們所發生事情的主要驅動力。我們相信，香港的組合、市場重新開放以及封鎖限制解除的組合，以及重要的是，我們看到 HIBOR 在未來幾個季度出現實質性變動的可能性將意味著我們將看到香港盈利強勁復甦。

In Mainland China itself, I think it reflects a few things. Firstly, just an observation that we're -- that despite being the biggest bank in China, we are small. We have -- biggest foreign bank in China. We have less than a 0.2% market share. If you look last year, we grew the loan book by 11%, which was far in excess of underlying GDP growth. So our ability to grow the loan book is not as correlated to underlying economic growth if we were a big lender as we are in Hong Kong. So yes, we are somewhat insulated to some extent.

在中國大陸本身，我認為這反映了一些事情。首先，我們只是觀察一下——儘管我們是中國最大的銀行，但我們規模很小。我們有——中國最大的外資銀行。我們的市場份額不到 0.2%。如果你看去年，我們的貸款賬簿增長了 11%，這遠遠超過了潛在的 GDP 增長。因此，如果我們是像香港那樣的大貸方，我們增加貸款賬簿的能力與潛在經濟增長的相關性並不高。所以是的，我們在某種程度上是絕緣的。

I think with Pinnacle, again, our life insurance venture, we're continuing actually to see very good traction in that business and see nothing in relation to what's happening that would cause us to slow down the plans for that business. We also have a lot of revenue connected with trade in China. And somewhat perversely, if there's a disruption in supply lines, it means people are going to run bigger trade balances with us as we've seen in our overall trade franchise with the disruption in supply lines.

我認為，對於 Pinnacle，我們的人壽保險企業，我們實際上繼續在該業務中看到非常好的牽引力，並且看不到與正在發生的事情相關的任何事情，這會導致我們放慢該業務的計劃。我們也有很多與中國貿易相關的收入。有點反常的是，如果供應線中斷，這意味著人們將與我們進行更大的貿易平衡，正如我們在供應線中斷的整體貿易特許經營中所看到的那樣。

So again, you've got a number of things in our book, which we're not a perfect -- it's different in the U.K. In Hong Kong, we very much track macro. In a market like China, it's much more micro.

再說一次，我們的書中有很多東西，我們並不完美——在英國不同。在香港，我們非常關注宏觀。在像中國這樣的市場中，它的規模要小得多。

Okay. That makes sense. Can I just ask a very quick follow-up on NII as well? Just because you commented that you're expecting rate hikes to come through more quickly in HIBOR, to therefore rise more quickly than previously. At what point do the mortgage caps in Hong Kong kick in and how material might that be? If the rate hikes are coming sooner and larger, does that mean that we hit the cap sooner and, therefore, NII benefits flatten out quicker?

好的。那講得通。我也可以要求對 NII 進行快速跟進嗎？僅僅因為您評論說您預計 HIBOR 的加息速度會更快，因此會比以前更快地升息。香港的抵押貸款上限在什麼時候開始生效，這可能有多重要？如果加息越來越快，這是否意味著我們會更快地達到上限，因此 NII 的收益會更快地趨於平緩？

Yes. I'll get our Investor Relations team to follow up, Manus, but I think it's around 160 basis points is where it starts to have an impact on NII growth. But I'll get our Investor Relations team to follow up.

是的。我會讓我們的投資者關係團隊跟進，Manus，但我認為大約 160 個基點是它開始對 NII 增長產生影響的地方。但我會讓我們的投資者關係團隊跟進。

We will now take our last question today from the line of Martin Leitgeb of Goldman Sachs.

今天，我們將從高盛的 Martin Leitgeb 提出我們今天的最後一個問題。

I have just 2 questions, please. One on U.K. NIM and a follow-up on capital. The reporting on HSBC U.K. Bank plc shows that NIM increased by 15 basis points to 1.63%. And I was just wondering if you could share your thinking on the phasing of rate benefits coming through in the U.K. To what extent does hedging delay the impact? Because it seems like from the increase you had in the first quarter, that hedging is comparatively a smaller part of the rate sensitivity, if you like, and that actually a good part of the rate sensitivity comes through quite quickly. Would you be able to share how big the structural hedge is in the U.K. ring fence so to get a better sense on phasing of any -- for the rate hikes on the P&L?

我只有2個問題，拜託。一個關於英國 NIM 和一個關於資本的後續行動。匯豐英國銀行的報告顯示，淨息差上升 15 個基點至 1.63%。我只是想知道您是否可以分享您對英國逐步實施利率優惠的想法。對沖在多大程度上延遲了影響？因為從第一季度的增長來看，對沖在利率敏感性中相對較小，如果你願意的話，實際上利率敏感性的很大一部分很快就會出現。您能否分享一下英國環形圍欄中的結構性對沖有多大，以便更好地了解任何分階段進行——對於損益表的加息？

And on capital, I was just wondering, the leverage ratio is up meaningfully in the quarter following, obviously, the changes. Does that impact how you see certain businesses which have a low risk weighting and the high -- comparatively high asset weight, say, trade finance repo? Is there more opportunity to engage stronger in some of these business lines?

在資本方面，我只是想知道，顯然，在變化之後的一個季度，槓桿率顯著上升。這是否會影響您如何看待某些風險權重較低和資產權重較高（例如貿易融資回購）的企業？是否有更多機會更強大地參與其中一些業務？

Look, the second one, Martin, I think that's a very complex question that you need to drive down into the individual legal entities because we're sort of relatively unique in that we don't have a single balance sheet. If you look at the average peer, probably 70-plus percent of their assets are within a single balance sheet, where, for us, I don't think a single balance sheet is more than about 30% of our total balance sheet. So where leverage constraints, capital constraints, stress constraints impact is an entity-by-entity discussion. But I don't think fundamentally anything has changed our strategy in any of those legal entities over the last 1 to 2 quarters.

看，第二個，馬丁，我認為這是一個非常複雜的問題，你需要深入到各個法律實體，因為我們相對獨特，因為我們沒有單一的資產負債表。如果你看一下普通同行，他們的資產可能有 70% 以上都在一個資產負債表中，對我們來說，我認為一個資產負債表不會超過我們總資產負債表的 30%。因此，槓桿約束、資本約束、壓力約束的影響是逐個實體的討論。但我認為，在過去的 1 到 2 個季度，我們在任何這些法人實體中的戰略基本上沒有發生任何改變。

On U.K. NIM, I think we are hedged lower to much lower than some other banks. We also have, I think, higher levels of liquidity and short-dated liquid assets. So I do think we probably have more interest rate sensitivity than peers, but without commenting on their interest rate sensitivity. So as you saw in our disclosures at full year, sterling is our most sensitive currency. And we do think what we're seeing in terms of rate rises, therefore, should correspond to very material net interest income growth, not only in the ring-fenced bank but also in the non-ring-fenced bank that has exposure to sterling interest rate sensitivity.

在英國 NIM 上，我認為我們的對沖水平比其他一些銀行低得多。我認為，我們還擁有更高水平的流動性和短期流動資產。所以我確實認為我們可能比同行對利率敏感度更高，但沒有評論他們的利率敏感度。因此，正如您在我們全年披露的信息中看到的那樣，英鎊是我們最敏感的貨幣。我們確實認為，我們在加息方面看到的情況，因此應該對應於非常實質性的淨利息收入增長，不僅在環形圍欄銀行，而且在有英鎊敞口的非環形圍欄銀行利率敏感性。

There are no more further questions at this time. Back to you, Ewen.

目前沒有更多的問題。回到你身邊，埃文。

Okay. Well, look, thank you, everyone, for joining. Appreciate the discussion and look forward to catching up with you in interim results. If you do have any immediate follow-up, our Investor Relations team is here to help. So thank you all for joining.

好的。好吧，看，謝謝大家的加入。感謝討論並期待在中期結果中趕上您。如果您確實有任何立即跟進，我們的投資者關係團隊隨時為您提供幫助。所以感謝大家的加入。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. That concludes the call for the HSBC Holdings plc's earnings release for the first quarter 2022. You may now disconnect.

謝謝你們，女士們，先生們。匯豐控股有限公司 2022 年第一季度收益發布的呼籲到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。