滙豐控股 (HSBC) 2022 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Investor and Analyst Conference Call for HSBC Holdings plc's Q3 2022 Results. For your information, this conference is being recorded.

女士們，先生們，早上好，歡迎參加匯豐控股有限公司 2022 年第三季度業績的投資者和分析師電話會議。供您參考，本次會議正在錄製中。

At this time, I'll hand the call over to your host, Mr. Noel Quinn, Group Chief Executive. You may begin, sir.

此時，我將把電話轉給您的主持人，集團首席執行官 Noel Quinn 先生。先生，您可以開始了。

Thank you, and good morning in London, good afternoon in Hong Kong. Thank you for joining our third quarter results call. Ewen is going to lead the financial presentation, but I want to start by first talking about the leadership changes we've also announced.

謝謝，倫敦早上好，香港下午好。感謝您參加我們的第三季度業績電話會議。 Ewen 將領導財務演示，但我想首先談談我們還宣布的領導層變動。

We've now spent nearly 3 years transforming HSBC, and while there's still work to do, we are now in a much better place to accelerate our financial performance and deliver stronger returns. As we approach the end of our 3-year transformation program, myself and the Board have taken the opportunity to review the composition of the GEC, with an eye to long-term succession planning. As a result, we have today announced that Georges Elhedery will take over as Group Chief Financial Officer on the 1st of January 2023. And Greg Guyett will take on the role of CEO of GB&M permanently effective immediately. Ewen will, therefore, step down as Group CFO on the 31st of December and will leave the bank in April 2023.

我們現在已經花費了近 3 年的時間來改造匯豐銀行，雖然仍有工作要做，但我們現在處於一個更好的地方，可以加快我們的財務業績並提供更強勁的回報。隨著我們為期 3 年的轉型計劃接近尾聲，我本人和董事會藉此機會審查了 GEC 的組成，著眼於長期繼任計劃。因此，我們今天宣布 Georges Elhedery 將於 2023 年 1 月 1 日接任集團首席財務官。Greg Guyett 將擔任 GB&M 首席執行官一職，立即永久生效。因此，Ewen 將於 12 月 31 日卸任集團首席財務官一職，並將於 2023 年 4 月離開銀行。

I want to put on record my thanks to Ewen for everything he's done during his time with us. He played a key part in creating and executing our transformation and growth agenda over the last 4 years. He helped steer HSBC through the COVID pandemic. He's been fundamental in reshaping our portfolio globally, improving our capital efficiency and embedding disciplined cost management across the organization. He has also driven the transformation agenda within the finance function, reshaping its strategic direction, encouraging innovation and building the team's engagement levels. He's been a great professional, has contributed much to the bank, and I wish him the very best for his future career.

我想對 Ewen 在與我們相處期間所做的一切表示感謝。在過去的 4 年裡，他在創建和執行我們的轉型和增長議程方面發揮了關鍵作用。他幫助引導匯豐銀行度過了新冠病毒大流行。他在全球範圍內重塑我們的投資組合、提高我們的資本效率和在整個組織中嵌入嚴格的成本管理方面發揮了重要作用。他還推動了財務部門的轉型議程，重塑其戰略方向，鼓勵創新並提高團隊的參與度。他是一位出色的專業人士，為銀行做出了很大貢獻，我祝愿他未來的職業生涯一切順利。

I want to emphasize, we remain absolutely committed to delivering our strategy and the 2023 targets we announced with our Q2 results. There is no change to my commitment as a consequence of these people moves.

我想強調的是，我們仍然絕對致力於實現我們在第二季度業績中宣布的戰略和 2023 年目標。由於這些人的變動，我的承諾沒有改變。

Turning to Q3. I'm pleased with our third quarter performance. All regions performed well, with particularly good performances in the U.K., the Middle East and Southeast Asia. We delivered a double-digit return on tangible equity for the 9-month period, excluding significant items. And we remain on track to achieve our financial targets in 2022 and 2023. We've also kept a tight grip on costs and are driving greater efficiencies across the organization. Clearly, this is important in an unpredictable and challenging external environment. But it's also a sign that our digitization strategy is working. Our work to structurally reposition the business and invest in areas of growth continues to gain traction.

轉向第三季度。我對我們第三季度的表現感到滿意。所有地區都表現良好，英國、中東和東南亞表現尤為出色。我們在 9 個月期間實現了兩位數的有形資產回報，不包括重要項目。我們仍有望在 2022 年和 2023 年實現財務目標。我們還嚴格控製成本，並在整個組織內提高效率。顯然，這在不可預測且具有挑戰性的外部環境中很重要。但這也表明我們的數字化戰略正在奏效。我們從結構上重新定位業務並投資於增長領域的工作繼續獲得關注。

We are in a much better position at the start of the new interest rate cycle as a result of the actions we have taken on capital efficiency, portfolio rationalization, organic revenue generation and cost control. We can also see in wealth, for example, that we're building a strong earnings platform for the future. Over the last 12 months, we attracted $91 billion of net new invested assets, with $32 billion in the third quarter alone. Clearly, I expect you to ask about M&A activity when we get to the Q&A section of today's call. As a result, we've given some more information about our Canada business in the appendix.

由於我們在資本效率、投資組合合理化、有機創收和成本控制方面採取的行動，我們在新的利率週期開始時處於更好的位置。例如，我們還可以從財富中看到，我們正在為未來建立一個強大的收益平台。在過去 12 個月中，我們吸引了 910 億美元的新投資淨資產，僅第三季度就吸引了 320 億美元。顯然，當我們進入今天電話會議的問答部分時，我希望你能詢問併購活動。因此，我們在附錄中提供了有關我們加拿大業務的更多信息。

I'll now hand over to Ewen to take you through the details.

我現在將交給 Ewen 帶您了解詳細信息。

Thanks, Noel, and good morning or afternoon all. As Noel said, these are a good set of results, reported pretax profits in the quarter of $3.1 billion. While down on last year's third quarter, this was due to the $2.4 billion revenue impairment associated with the disposal of our French retail bank.

謝謝，諾埃爾，大家早上好或下午好。正如諾爾所說，這是一組很好的結果，報告的季度稅前利潤為 31 億美元。儘管與去年第三季度相比有所下降，但這是由於與出售我們的法國零售銀行相關的 24 億美元的收入減值。

Adjusted pretax profits in the quarter increased by $1 billion or 18% to $6.5 billion, reflecting a strong net interest income performance of $8.6 billion. That's up $2 billion on last year's third quarter.

本季度調整後的稅前利潤增加了 10 億美元或 18% 至 65 億美元，反映了強勁的 86 億美元的淨利息收入表現。這比去年第三季度增加了 20 億美元。

We had higher ECLs this quarter, $1.1 billion or 43 basis points. This primarily reflects increased economic uncertainty in the U.K., together with further provisioning for our China commercial real estate portfolio.

本季度我們的預期信用損失較高，為 11 億美元或 43 個基點。這主要反映了英國經濟不確定性的增加，以及我們為中國商業房地產投資組合提供的進一步撥備。

Operating expenses are up 1% year-to-date against the same period last year and up 5% on last year's third quarter due to higher technology investment and different timings for our variable pay accrual. We remain on track to deliver broadly stable costs this year.

由於更高的技術投資和我們可變薪酬應計的不同時間安排，運營費用今年迄今比去年同期增長 1%，比去年第三季度增長 5%。我們今年仍有望實現大體穩定的成本。

Our core Tier 1 ratio was down 20 basis points to 13.4%, including an around 30-basis-point impact from the loss on the French retail bank disposal. We continue to expect to be at the bottom end of our 14% to 14.5% target core Tier 1 range during the first half of 2023.

我們的核心一級比率下降 20 個基點至 13.4%，其中包括法國零售銀行處置損失帶來的約 30 個基點的影響。我們繼續預計在 2023 年上半年將處於我們 14% 至 14.5% 目標核心一級範圍的底端。

At our second quarter results, Noel and I said our current strategy is the best and safest way to improve returns, with strong revenue growth driven by rising rates and volumes and tight cost discipline. With these results, our strategy remains firmly on track, good underlying growth across all of our businesses, with operating costs remaining broadly stable year-to-date and an annualized reported return on tangible equity of 9.2%.

在我們的第二季度業績中，諾埃爾和我表示，我們目前的戰略是提高回報的最佳和最安全的方式，收入增長強勁是由利率和銷量上升以及嚴格的成本紀律推動的。有了這些結果，我們的戰略仍然堅定不移，我們所有業務的基本增長良好，運營成本今年迄今基本保持穩定，年化報告的有形股本回報率為 9.2%。

Adjusted revenue was up $3.1 billion or 28% as the positive impact of rate rises, which reflected in our strong net interest income performance and noninterest income of $5.7 billion was up $600 million or 13% on last year's third quarter despite a $400 million insurance markets impact charge in the quarter. ECLs were $1.1 billion net charge compared to a net release of $600 million in last year's third quarter. We now expect an ECL charge of around 30 basis points for this year.

由於加息的積極影響，調整後的收入增加了 31 億美元或 28%，這反映在我們強勁的淨利息收入表現和 57 億美元的非利息收入比去年第三季度增加了 6 億美元或 13%，儘管有 4 億美元的保險市場本季度的衝擊費用。預期信用損失為 11 億美元的淨費用，而去年第三季度的淨釋放為 6 億美元。我們現在預計今年的預期信用損失費用約為 30 個基點。

Lending was down 2% on the second quarter and deposits down 1% but excluding the impact of the reclassification of the French retail bank as held for sale, lending and deposits were both up $5 billion. Our tangible net asset value per share of $7.13 was down $0.35 on the second quarter due to negative FX and adverse fair value movements.

第二季度貸款下降 2%，存款下降 1%，但不包括法國零售銀行重新分類為持有待售的影響，貸款和存款均增加了 50 億美元。由於負外彙和不利的公允價值變動，我們的每股有形資產淨值為 7.13 美元，比第二季度下降了 0.35 美元。

Turning to Slide 4. We're seeing good organic growth across all of our global businesses as well as the benefit of rising rates. Wealth and Personal Banking revenue was up 25%, with a good Personal Banking performance. Personal Banking revenues were up $1.4 billion on the third quarter last year due to higher rates and balance sheet growth.

轉到幻燈片 4。我們看到我們所有全球業務的有機增長良好，以及利率上升帶來的好處。財富及個人銀行業務收入增長 25%，個人銀行業務表現良好。由於利率上升和資產負債表增長，個人銀行業務收入比去年第三季度增加了 14 億美元。

There was a good underlying performance in wealth due to the strong insurance and private banking performance. While revenue is down 9% or $200 million due to adverse market impacts in insurance of $400 million, we remain very confident in the growth of our wealth franchise. We had $91 million of net new invested assets in the last 12 months, including almost $32 billion in this quarter. So our investment is building a strong future earnings platform.

由於保險和私人銀行業務表現強勁，財富的基本表現良好。儘管由於 4 億美元的保險市場不利影響，收入下降了 9% 或 2 億美元，但我們仍然對我們的財富特許經營權的增長充滿信心。在過去的 12 個月中，我們擁有 9100 萬美元的淨新投資資產，其中本季度接近 320 億美元。所以我們的投資是建立一個強大的未來收益平台。

Commercial Banking revenue was up 40%, with Global Payments Solutions, formerly known as GLCM, benefiting from higher rates, together with continued strong underlying growth.

商業銀行業務收入增長 40%，其中 Global Payments Solutions（前身為 GLCM）受益於更高的利率以及持續強勁的潛在增長。

Global Banking and Markets revenue was up 16%. Market and Securities Services revenue was up 20% due to market volatility, and Global Payments Services Solutions in global banking, up 100%, partly offset by lower Capital Markets & Advisory activity.

全球銀行和市場業務收入增長 16%。由於市場波動，市場和證券服務收入增長了 20%，全球銀行業的全球支付服務解決方案增長了 100%，部分被資本市場和諮詢活動的減少所抵消。

On Slide 5, net interest income was $8.6 billion, up $2 billion versus last year's third quarter. This was primarily driven by higher rates and was strong across all regions and businesses. On rates, the net interest margin was 157 basis points, up 22 basis points on the second quarter, putting us back at prepandemic levels. We now expect net interest income of around $32 billion for this year and at least $36 billion in 2023 compared to the previous $37 billion guidance.

在幻燈片 5 上，淨利息收入為 86 億美元，比去年第三季度增加了 20 億美元。這主要是由較高的利率推動的，並且在所有地區和企業中都很強勁。在利率方面，淨息差為 157 個基點，比第二季度上升 22 個基點，使我們回到了大流行前的水平。我們現在預計今年的淨利息收入約為 320 億美元，到 2023 年至少為 360 億美元，而之前的指導為 370 億美元。

Relative to the second quarter, we are upgrading our assumptions on a like-for-like 2023 revenues by around $1.5 billion on a constant currency basis, including $1.2 billion for FX movements and at least $1.3 billion of planned higher cost of funding for the trading book, with this benefit being reflected in higher trading income in noninterest income and is dollar for dollar with lower net interest income. In addition, given the unprecedented speed of interest rate rises we've been seeing this year, we believe we're being cautious on our planning assumptions across deposit betas, deposit migration and asset margins from here.

相對於第二季度，我們正在將我們對 2023 年同類收入的假設上調約 15 億美元（按固定匯率計算），其中包括 12 億美元的外匯變動和至少 13 億美元的計劃更高的交易資金成本書，這種好處反映在非利息收入的較高交易收入中，並且是美元兌美元，淨利息收入較低。此外，鑑於今年我們所看到的前所未有的加息速度，我們認為我們對存款貝塔係數、存款遷移和資產利潤率的規劃假設持謹慎態度。

The FX movements have a similar impact on costs, with 2021 adjusted operating costs of $32 billion translating to around $30 billion using year-to-date average FX rates and around $29 billion if you were to use September average rates. Given the slower growth we now foresee, we now expect low single-digit lending growth in both 2022 and 2023 before returning to previous expectations of mid-single-digit growth from 2024 onwards.

外匯走勢對成本也有類似的影響，2021 年調整後的運營成本為 320 億美元，使用年初至今的平均匯率折算為約 300 億美元，如果使用 9 月的平均匯率，折算為約 290 億美元。鑑於我們現在預見的增長放緩，我們現在預計 2022 年和 2023 年的貸款增長將保持低個位數，然後從 2024 年開始恢復到之前的中個位數增長預期。

On the next slide, noninterest income was $5.7 billion, up 13% against last year's third quarter. Net fee income was down 11%. The decline in fees was largely due to lower Capital Markets & Advisory levels in Global Banking and Markets and lower equity market activity in Hong Kong in Wealth and Personal Banking. Flow fees in Global Payments Solutions were up 18% in Commercial Banking and up 8% in Global Banking and Markets. Other income was up 49%, including another strong FX performance in the quarter.

在下一張幻燈片中，非利息收入為 57 億美元，比去年第三季度增長 13%。淨手續費收入下降 11%。費用下降主要是由於全球銀行和市場的資本市場和諮詢水平較低，以及香港財富和個人銀行業務的股票市場活動減少。全球支付解決方案的流量費在商業銀行業務中增長了 18%，在全球銀行和市場業務中增長了 8%。其他收入增長了 49%，其中包括本季度另一個強勁的外匯表現。

On the next slide, we've reported a net charge of $1.1 billion or 43% of ECLs in the quarter. This included $600 million of modeled Stage 1 and 2 provisions and overlays, $400 million of Stage 3 loans and $100 million of write-offs. There was a $300 million charge in the U.K., including $200 million of additional allowances for heightened economic uncertainty. $400 million also relates to the Mainland China commercial real estate market, around 2/3 of which are Stage 1 and 2 provisions and the remaining third are Stage 3. The overall quality of our loan book remains good. Stage 3 loans, as a percentage of total customer loans, are stable at 1.8%.

在下一張幻燈片中，我們報告了本季度淨收費 11 億美元或 ECL 的 43%。這包括 6 億美元的第 1 階段和第 2 階段準備金和覆蓋模型、4 億美元的第 3 階段貸款和 1 億美元的沖銷。英國收取了 3 億美元的費用，其中包括 2 億美元的額外津貼，以應對經濟不確定性加劇。 4億美元也與中國內地商業房地產市場有關，其中約2/3為第一階段和第二階段撥備，其餘三分之一為第三階段。我們的貸款賬簿的整體質量仍然良好。第三階段貸款佔客戶貸款總額的百分比穩定在 1.8%。

In terms of outlook, we expect an ECL charge of around 30 basis points for this year. And for 2023, we now expect ECLs to be at the higher end of our 30- to 40-basis-point planning range but with a higher degree of volatility around this guidance given the uncertain market outlook.

在前景方面，我們預計今年的預期信用損失費用約為 30 個基點。對於 2023 年，我們現在預計預期信用損失將處於我們 30 至 40 個基點計劃範圍的高端，但鑑於不確定的市場前景，圍繞該指引的波動性更大。

Turning to Slide 8. We've had 3 quarters now of relatively stable costs year-to-date, and we continue to expect costs to be broadly stable on last year. Within that, third quarter adjusted operating costs were 5% up on the same period last year driven by continued investment in technology and timing differences in the variable pay accrual versus the third quarter of 2021. We made a further $600 million of cost program savings during the third quarter, with cost to achieve spend of around $700 million.

轉到幻燈片 8。今年迄今為止，我們已經有 3 個季度的成本相對穩定，我們繼續預計成本將與去年大致穩定。其中，由於對技術的持續投資以及與 2021 年第三季度相比應計可變薪酬的時間差異，第三季度調整後的運營成本比去年同期增長了 5%。在此期間，我們進一步節省了 6 億美元的成本計劃。第三季度，實現支出的成本約為 7 億美元。

The formal 3-year program ends this year. We now expect to spend between $6.5 billion and $7 billion, slightly lower than our original $7 billion CTA target. But the expected cost savings from the program remain unchanged at around $5.5 billion by the end of this year, rising to around $6.5 billion of cost savings by the end of 2023 We continue to target around 2% adjusted cost growth for 2023, with an ongoing focus on active cost management to mitigate inflationary pressures.

正式的 3 年計劃將於今年結束。我們現在預計支出在 65 億美元到 70 億美元之間，略低於我們最初的 70 億美元 CTA 目標。但到今年年底，該計劃的預期成本節約保持不變，約為 55 億美元，到 2023 年底將上升至約 65 億美元 我們繼續將 2023 年調整後成本增長的目標定為 2% 左右，持續專注於積極的成本管理以減輕通脹壓力。

Turning to capital on Slide 9. Our core Tier 1 ratio was 13.4%, down 20 basis points on the second quarter. This includes the sale of our French retail banking operations, which had an impact of around 30 basis points and further negative reserve movements through other comprehensive income due to higher rates.

在幻燈片 9 上轉向資本。我們的核心一級比率為 13.4%，比第二季度下降 20 個基點。這包括出售我們的法國零售銀行業務，這產生了約 30 個基點的影響，以及由於利率上升而通過其他綜合收益進一步出現負儲備變動。

Reported risk-weighted assets were down $23 billion on the second quarter, principally to FX movements. And we've now achieved our year-end ambition of at least $120 billion of cumulative RWA sales, with modest further saves still expected in the fourth quarter. We expect core Tier 1s to now recover strongly in the fourth quarter, back towards 14%. This reflects a number of factors, including the formulaic impact of how our dividend is accrued during the year. We accrue at the top end of our payout range, so we have already accrued $0.28 year-to-date and additional capital management actions we've been taking to offset the negative OCI movements.

第二季度報告的風險加權資產減少了 230 億美元，主要是由於外匯波動。我們現在已經實現了年終累計 RWA 銷售額至少 1200 億美元的目標，預計第四季度仍會進一步節省少量資金。我們預計核心一級企業現在將在第四季度強勁復甦，回升至 14%。這反映了許多因素，包括我們在年內如何累積股息的公式化影響。我們累積在我們支付範圍的頂端，所以我們已經累積了 0.28 美元，並且我們一直在採取額外的資本管理行動來抵消 OCI 的負面變動。

Please remember that this is not guidance of our full year 2022 dividend intentions. The dividend accrual is purely a formulaic calculation that will true up at the full year based upon the results and outlook at the time. We continue to expect to move back to the bottom end of our 14% to 14.5% target core Tier 1 range during the first half of 2023 and to consider buybacks from the second half of 2023 onwards.

請記住，這不是我們 2022 年全年股息意向的指導。應計股息純粹是一種公式計算，將根據當時的結果和前景在全年實現。我們繼續預計在 2023 年上半年回到我們 14% 至 14.5% 目標核心一級範圍的底端，並考慮從 2023 年下半年開始回購。

So in summary, these were a good set of results, good earnings diversity across the group, growth in all of our business lines and continued strong control on operating costs. Despite a weakening credit outlook, our credit quality remains strong. For 2023, we're upgrading like-for-like revenue assumptions. We continue to target around -- adjusted cost growth of around 2%. And we expect to be at the bottom end of our target core Tier 1 range in the first half of 2023. Finally, after another quarter of good progress, we remain confident of delivering our targeted 12-plus percent return on tangible equity in 2023 and beyond. We expect a 50% dividend payout ratio for both 2023 and 2024, supplemented by active capital management to surplus capital beyond this.

總而言之，這些都是很好的結果、整個集團良好的盈利多樣性、我們所有業務線的增長以及對運營成本的持續強有力的控制。儘管信貸前景轉弱，但我們的信貸質量依然強勁。對於 2023 年，我們正在升級同類收入假設。我們繼續以 2% 左右的調整後成本增長為目標。我們預計在 2023 年上半年將處於我們目標核心 1 級範圍的底端。最後，在又一個季度取得良好進展之後，我們仍然有信心在 2023 年實現 12% 以上的有形股本回報率目標，並且超過。我們預計 2023 年和 2024 年的股息支付率均為 50%，並輔以積極的資本管理，除此之外的剩餘資本。

We've included a slide on Canada in the appendix, so you can see the shape of the business and the tangible equity within it. We've also included slides on mainly China commercial real estate and the Hong Kong loan book.

我們在附錄中包含了一張關於加拿大的幻燈片，因此您可以看到企業的形態和其中的有形資產。我們還包括主要中國商業房地產和香港貸款簿的幻燈片。

With that, Elmer, if we could please open up for questions.

有了這個，埃爾默，如果我們可以請打開問題。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question is from the line of Mr. Omar Keenan from Crédit Suisse.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自瑞士信貸的 Omar Keenan 先生。

Best of luck for the future, Ewen. Could I please ask a question on capital planning and on the provision scenarios? So just on capital planning, could you give an update on where HSBC is on the tactical RWA measures that are meant to get the core Tier 1 ratio up to above 14%? It would just be good to have an idea of that. And just given the focus on real estate prices in the U.K. and Hong Kong and Mainland China, would it be possible to give a sensitivity in terms of RWA migration to lower real estate prices in 2023? For example, what sort of 10% to 15% across the board reduction in real estate prices would mean for RWAs?

祝你未來好運，埃文。我能問一個關於資本規劃和準備方案的問題嗎？那麼，就資本規劃而言，您能否提供有關匯豐銀行在旨在將核心一級比率提高到 14% 以上的戰術風險加權資產措施方面的最新情況？有一個想法就好了。鑑於關注英國、香港和中國大陸的房地產價格，是否有可能在 RWA 遷移方面對 2023 年較低的房地產價格敏感？例如，房地產價格全面下降 10% 到 15% 對風險加權資產意味著什麼？

And my other question on asset quality. Could you give a little bit more color on the guidance for full year '23? I guess there's a lot of moving parts between Stage 3 and moving towards a downside or downside 2 scenario. So when you're thinking about the FY '23 guidance being at essentially 40 basis points, what sort of assumptions are in there?

還有我關於資產質量的另一個問題。您能否為 23 年全年的指導提供更多色彩？我想在第 3 階段和走向下行或下行 2 情景之間有很多移動的部分。因此，當您考慮 23 財年的指導基本上為 40 個基點時，其中有哪些假設？

Ewen, do you want to pick up those points directly? And Omar, thank you for your questions.

歐文，要不要直接把那些積分撿起來？還有奧馬爾，謝謝你的提問。

Look, on capital planning, I guess, yes, various parts to that. I mean, firstly, I touched on when I spoke about the technical nature of how we accrue dividends during the year. So we've accrued $0.28 so far this year. So there will be very limited drag in Q4 from dividend accrual.

看，關於資本規劃，我想，是的，各個部分。我的意思是，首先，當我談到我們在這一年中如何累積股息的技術性質時，我談到了這一點。所以今年到目前為止我們已經累積了 0.28 美元。因此，第四季度股息應計的阻力將非常有限。

Secondly, yes, we've largely completed the $120 billion program that we committed to. I think there'll be a bit of a carry through into Q4 of a few billion. And on top of that, going back to Q1, we did implement a series of other sort of tactical measures to support the core Tier 1 given the movements we were seeing driven by the OCI losses and the impact that was having on capital. We're already seeing some of that benefit come through the Q3 results, and there'll be incremental benefits in Q4.

其次，是的，我們已經基本完成了我們承諾的 1200 億美元的計劃。我認為第四季度會有幾十億的結轉。最重要的是，回到第一季度，我們確實實施了一系列其他類型的戰術措施來支持核心一級，因為我們看到的運動是由 OCI 損失和對資本的影響所驅動的。我們已經從第三季度的結果中看到了其中的一些好處，並且在第四季度會有增量收益。

But I would say that we -- yes, you should see material improvement in the core Tier 1 ratio in the fourth quarter. And then we'll be back at the bottom end of the core Tier 1 range by the middle of next year, which also then supports the buyback comments for the second half of 2023 because, at that point, with a 12% plus return on tangible equity and a 50% payout ratio, we've signaled that we expect low single-digit loan growth next year. That means the business at that point is very capital-accumulative.

但我想說我們——是的，你應該看到第四季度核心一級比率的實質性改善。然後到明年年中，我們將回到核心 1 級範圍的底端，這也支持 2023 年下半年的回購評論，因為屆時將有 12% 以上的回報率有形股本和 50% 的派息率，我們已經暗示我們預計明年的貸款增長將保持低個位數。這意味著當時的業務非常具有資本積累。

On the second question on the real estate crisis, look, I don't have to hand what the 15% impact would be on ratings migration across the book. But yes, perhaps I can get you to follow up with the IR team afterwards. There is quite a bit of detail in the Pillar 3 documents that I think they can help you sort of sift through to try and estimate what that impact may be.

關於房地產危機的第二個問題，看，我不必給出 15% 的影響會對整本書的評級遷移產生什麼影響。但是，是的，也許我可以讓您事後跟進 IR 團隊。支柱 3 文檔中有相當多的細節，我認為它們可以幫助您進行篩選，以嘗試估計可能產生的影響。

And then on asset quality for 2023. Well, look, firstly, I think we do expect on the China commercial real estate book to continue to see some losses coming through that portfolio through '23. It still feels like we've got some ways to go before we're going to get to stability and improvement in the China property markets. For the U.K., probably the market with the biggest delta around it for us at the moment is the U.K. Yes, we have already, in some ways, front-end loaded potential Stage 3 losses for 2023 with the forward economic guidance adjustments that we've made during the third quarter.

然後是 2023 年的資產質量。好吧，首先，我認為我們確實預計中國商業房地產賬簿上將繼續看到該投資組合在 23 年出現一些損失。在我們要實現中國房地產市場的穩定和改善之前，我們仍然感覺還有一些路要走。對於英國來說，目前對我們來說最大的市場可能是英國。是的，我們已經在某些方面預先加載了 2023 年潛在的第 3 階段損失，以及我們的前瞻性經濟指導調整。我在第三季度做了。

And above and beyond that, look, I think we're just being reasonably prudent with the guidance at the moment. We didn't say 40 basis points. We said to the higher end of 30 to 40 basis points. I think when we look at consensus, it's sitting at slightly higher than 40 basis points at the moment, but we're not really trying to change that guidance.

除此之外，看，我認為我們目前對指導相當謹慎。我們沒有說 40 個基點。我們說的高端30到40個基點。我認為，當我們看到共識時，目前它的水平略高於 40 個基點，但我們並沒有真正試圖改變這一指導。

But when you think about the world next year, I think it's also important to recognize that places like Hong Kong and China are likely to have better economic performances in '23 and in '22. So for us, when you think about our business mix, we have got a blend of some parts of the world seeing improved economic performance next year.

但是當你考慮明年的世界時，我認為同樣重要的是要認識到像香港和中國這樣的地方在 23 年和 22 年可能會有更好的經濟表現。因此，對我們而言，當您考慮我們的業務組合時，我們已經看到了世界某些地區明年的經濟表現有所改善。

I don't know, Noel, if you want to add any other comments on.

我不知道，Noel，如果你想添加任何其他評論。

I'll just reiterate the fact that despite the guidance to say, at the top end of the 30, 40 basis points, we're still committed to the delivering 12% plus RoTE. So it's affordable within the RoTE guidance we've given you. And we are building Stage 1 and Stage 2 provisions now in anticipation of potential losses turning into Stage 3 losses in 2023. So we've taken a prudent position on balance sheet positioning as well.

我只是重申一個事實，儘管指導說，在 30、40 個基點的最高端，我們仍然致力於提供 12% 以上的 RoTE。因此，在我們為您提供的 RoTE 指導中，它是負擔得起的。我們現在正在建立第一階段和第二階段的準備金，預計到 2023 年潛在的損失會變成第三階段的損失。因此，我們對資產負債表的定位也採取了謹慎的立場。

Our next question is from Rob Noble from Deutsche Bank.

我們的下一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Rob Noble。

I was wondering if we can just walk through the NII guidance. So you're saying the $37 billion has gone down $1.2 billion for FX. My understanding of the trading book funding cost, because that was already within your previous NII sensitivity, so rates have gone up, and I would have assumed that your NII should have gone up by more than what you're guiding to. So the $36 billion looks quite low to me. So I was wondering if you could walk us through your thoughts on that one, please.

我想知道我們是否可以直接瀏覽 NII 指南。所以你是說外彙的 370 億美元減少了 12 億美元。我對交易賬戶資金成本的理解，因為這已經在你之前的 NII 敏感性範圍內，所以利率上升了，我會假設你的 NII 上升的幅度應該超過你所指導的水平。所以 360 億美元在我看來相當低。所以我想知道你是否能告訴我們你對那個的想法，拜託。

Yes, sure. I'll do my best. Look, on the NII guidance, and yes, there's a sort of -- the technical side to the guidance is on the walk from the second quarter. Yes, firstly, as you've noted, we've had FX -- adverse FX movements of $1.2 billion. And our planning assumption is that rate moves will increase the cost of funding in the trading book by at least $1.3 billion. Yes, the cost of funding will be a drag on net interest income, but we'll have a dollar-for-dollar improvement in trading income and noninterest income. So relative to the second quarter, we think we're guiding like-for-like revenue guidance up by at least $1.5 billion, even though the net interest income guidance is down by $1 billion.

是的，當然。我將盡我所能。看，關於 NII 指導，是的，有一種——指導的技術方面是從第二季度開始的。是的，首先，正如您所指出的，我們有外匯——12 億美元的不利外匯變動。我們的計劃假設是利率變動將使交易賬戶中的資金成本增加至少 13 億美元。是的，融資成本將拖累淨利息收入，但我們將在交易收入和非利息收入方面實現美元對美元的改善。因此，相對於第二季度，我們認為我們將同類收入指導至少提高了 15 億美元，儘管淨利息收入指導下降了 10 億美元。

Look, on the nontechnical side, we think net interest income assumptions at the moment are cautious. Yes, I think increasingly, the interest rate sensitivity tables that we show you are less helpful because they are based on a 50% deposit beta. Given the relatively unprecedented speed in rate rises that we've seen relative to recent history, I think we are being deliberately cautious in key assumptions. We're assuming, in that guidance, very high deposit betas, elevated levels of migration out of noninterest-bearing current accounts and contraction of asset margins in some areas.

看，在非技術方面，我們認為目前的淨利息收入假設是謹慎的。是的，我認為我們向您展示的利率敏感性表越來越沒有幫助，因為它們基於 50% 的存款測試版。鑑於我們所看到的相對於近期歷史的相對空前的加息速度，我認為我們在關鍵假設上刻意謹慎。在該指引中，我們假設存款貝塔值非常高，非計息經常賬戶的遷移水平升高以及某些領域的資產利潤率收縮。

Yes, we'll obviously see how this plays out in the coming quarters. But I would say at the moment, we are trying to be deliberately cautious in that guidance. And I would note that, like-for-like, we have increased the guidance by around $1.5 billion.

是的，我們顯然會在接下來的幾個季度看到這將如何發揮作用。但我現在要說，我們正在努力在該指導中保持謹慎。我要指出的是，我們已經將指導增加了大約 15 億美元。

And just for clarity, the cost of funding the trading book was inherent in the Q2 numbers, but that cost has increased by $1.3 billion. So we said increase on Q2, and it's an offset between NII and non-NII. So although the cost on NII is higher by $1.3 billion, the benefit reemerges in the non-NII. That $1.3 billion reemerges.

為了清楚起見，交易賬簿的融資成本是第二季度數字中固有的，但該成本增加了 13 億美元。所以我們說第二季度的增加，這是 NII 和非 NII 之間的抵消。因此，儘管 NII 的成本高出 13 億美元，但非 NII 的收益再次出現。這 13 億美元再次出現。

Okay. And the other thing is just also to note, which was in my comments, but if people missed it, was that FX impact will also have a corresponding impact on operating expenses. The 2021 costs were $32 billion. That translates to $30 billion on average FX rate year-to-date and $29 billion if we were to use September averages. So I do think where consensus is sitting at the moment looks too high relative to those numbers.

好的。另一件事也需要注意，這在我的評論中，但如果人們錯過了，外匯影響也會對運營費用產生相應的影響。 2021 年的成本為 320 億美元。如果我們使用 9 月份的平均匯率，這相當於今年迄今為止的平均匯率 300 億美元和 290 億美元。所以我確實認為目前的共識相對於這些數字來說太高了。

Just a follow up on the NII bit. So the trading book funding costs go up, but you've effectively assumed that the banking book doesn't benefit at all from incremental rate rises that you've assumed in Q4. Is that right?

只是對 NII 位的跟進。所以交易賬戶的融資成本上升了，但你實際上假設銀行賬戶根本沒有從你在第四季度假設的利率上升中受益。那正確嗎？

Yes. Implicitly, in those assumptions, I think that's broadly correct. But as I say, I think within our planning assumptions at the moment, very cautious assumptions across deposit betas, deposit migration and asset margins. And I think, again, that answer is more nuanced if you go to the individual legal entity level. I think probably in Hong Kong, we are getting towards [peaking them] during the fourth quarter, I think. In some of the other markets, I still think there's further expansion of NIM.

是的。隱含地，在這些假設中，我認為這是大致正確的。但正如我所說，我認為在我們目前的計劃假設中，對存款貝塔、存款遷移和資產利潤率的假設非常謹慎。而且我再次認為，如果您進入個人法人實體級別，則該答案會更加細微。我想可能在香港，我們正朝著第四季度的[峰值]邁進，我想。在其他一些市場，我仍然認為 NIM 會進一步擴大。

Our next question is from Joseph Dickerson from Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Joseph Dickerson。

Ewen, you cited a weakening credit outlook. Could you just discuss for us -- help us dimension a little bit a couple of things in terms of -- for instance, how a strengthening dollar plays on credit cost in your Asia footprint? And then relatedly, if I look, the Hong Kong interbank liquidity is down to about HKD 100 billion, and the HKMA has been active in defending the PEG. It's not a zero chance that the peg could break. And I guess what would be the consequences for the bank in that event from a -- particularly from a credit standpoint? If you could help us think through those 2 dimensions, that would be helpful.

Ewen，你提到了疲軟的信貸前景。您能否為我們討論一下——幫助我們從以下幾個方面衡量一些事情——例如，美元走強如何影響您在亞洲足蹟的信貸成本？然後相關的，如果我看一下，香港銀行同業流動性下降到大約 1000 億港元，而金管局一直在積極捍衛 PEG。釘子斷裂的可能性不是零。而且我想從——尤其是從信用的角度來看，在這種情況下，銀行會產生什麼後果？如果您能幫助我們思考這兩個維度，那將很有幫助。

I think let me take the second question first, if I can. And then Ewen, you take the first.

如果可以的話，我想讓我先回答第二個問題。然後是Ewen，你拿第一個。

We do not believe there is any risk to the peg at all. We believe the peg -- the HKMA have sufficient capabilities to defend the peg, and that's not a scenario that we envisage.

我們認為掛鉤根本沒有任何風險。我們相信掛鉤 - 金管局有足夠的能力來捍衛掛鉤，這不是我們設想的情況。

Yes. On the first part of the question, Joe, that -- yes, we don't think that when we look across the portfolio in Asia, there's any meaningful impact from stronger U.S. dollar apart from potentially in smaller markets, for example, in Sri Lanka, but I mean that's not all dollar-related. But at a sort of big macro level, we don't think the strength in the dollar has a material impact on us as we look out on credit quality across the region.

是的。關於問題的第一部分，喬，是的，我們認為當我們審視亞洲的投資組合時，除了可能在較小的市場（例如斯里蘭卡）外，美元走強不會產生任何有意義的影響蘭卡，但我的意思是，這並不全都與美元有關。但在某種宏觀層面上，我們認為美元走強不會對我們產生實質性影響，因為我們關注整個地區的信貸質量。

Our next question is from the line of Fahed Kunwar from Redburn.

我們的下一個問題來自 Redburn 的 Fahed Kunwar。

Good luck, Ewen, with your future career. Just a couple of questions from me. The first one was just back on impairments. I'm sure it's pretty my understanding, but when you look at the $300 million CRE overlay and the $200 million U.K. overlay, if I look at your overall coverage ratio on your loans to customers, it's pretty much flat at 1.1%, which is about the same as 2Q and FY '21. And I would have expected that to go up if a lot of the provisions you're taking are just reserves rather than treating underlying delinquency. So why hasn't that coverage ratio stepped up? Are there other moving parts, obviously, maybe write-offs, some underlying delinquencies? That would be my first question.

祝你好運，Ewen，你未來的職業生涯。我有幾個問題。第一個剛剛恢復損傷。我敢肯定這很符合我的理解，但是當您查看 3 億美元的 CRE 覆蓋率和 2 億美元的英國覆蓋率時，如果我查看您對客戶貸款的整體覆蓋率，它幾乎持平於 1.1%，即與 2Q 和 FY '21 大致相同。如果你採取的許多規定只是儲備而不是治療潛在的拖欠，我本來預計會上升。那麼為什麼這個覆蓋率沒有提高呢？顯然，是否還有其他活動部分，可能是註銷，一些潛在的拖欠？那將是我的第一個問題。

And my second question, just following on from an earlier question. When you talk about your greater-than-14% guidance on CET1 from first half '23, have you factored in potential risk migration from higher loan losses falling CRE within that? Or if we saw increased migration, would that be a risk to that greater-than-14% CET1 guidance from 1 half '23?

我的第二個問題是在前面的問題之後提出的。當您談到您從 23 年上半年開始對 CET1 的超過 14% 的指導時，您是否考慮到由於較高的貸款損失導致 CRE 下降的潛在風險遷移？或者，如果我們看到移民增加，這是否會對 23 年半月 1 日超過 14% 的 CET1 指導構成風險？

Yes. Fahed, on the second question, yes, we've clearly factored in a view on what the economic outlook is and what the impact on ratings migration would be as a result of that. And you can see what our assumptions are on the macro outlook from our IFRS 9 scenarios. So yes, clearly, within that, in some markets, there is an element of ratings migration that we've built into our RWA forecast and capital forecast.

是的。 Fahed，關於第二個問題，是的，我們已經清楚地考慮了對經濟前景的看法以及由此對評級遷移的影響。您可以從我們的 IFRS 9 情景中看到我們對宏觀前景的假設。因此，是的，很明顯，在某些市場中，我們已將評級遷移的元素納入我們的風險加權資產預測和資本預測中。

The -- on the -- on your question on impairments, I mean, I guess, it's hard to answer the question on a macro level. On the commercial real estate portfolio and China, we have definitely increased the level of overall provisioning against that portfolio. The -- yes, the -- and then on the U.K., again, I'm sort of struggling to get my head around the sort of takeoff of the provisions we had at the beginning of the year because of COVID and the putting back on provisions that we're now putting back on, I think, net-net, we put more on in the U.K. than we took off at the start of the year. So -- but look, I'll get the IR team to follow up with you on the specifics. But I think on the 2 portfolios that we're sort of most focused on at the moment, provisioning levels are higher than where they were at the beginning of the year.

- 關於 - 關於你關於損傷的問題，我的意思是，我想，很難在宏觀層面上回答這個問題。在商業房地產投資組合和中國，我們確實提高了對該投資組合的整體撥備水平。 - 是的， - 然後在英國，我有點難以理解我們在年初因為 COVID 和重新投入使用的規定的那種起飛我們現在重新投入使用的規定，我認為，net-net，我們在英國投入的數量比我們在今年年初起飛的數量要多。所以——但是看，我會讓 IR 團隊跟進你的具體細節。但我認為，在我們目前最關注的兩個投資組合中，配置水平高於年初的水平。

And I think there are some currency impacts on the balance sheet as well. But the IR team can follow up on that.

我認為資產負債表也會受到一些貨幣影響。但 IR 團隊可以跟進。

Our next question is from Yafei Tian from Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗的 Yafei Tian。

Ewen, all the best to your future career. And I have 2 questions. The first one is just to follow up on that revenue and cost guidance, making sure I heard it correctly. So assuming constant currency revenue is $1.5 billion higher and, I guess, cost guidance hasn't really moved 2% inflation, does that imply, on a preprovision basis, you're guiding for $1.5 billion higher of PPOP? So that is the first one.

Ewen，祝你未來的職業生涯一切順利。我有兩個問題。第一個只是跟進收入和成本指導，確保我沒聽錯。因此，假設固定貨幣收入高出 15 億美元，而且我猜，成本指引並沒有真正推動 2% 的通脹，這是否意味著，在預先準備的基礎上，你的 PPOP 指引高出 15 億美元？所以這是第一個。

And then second question is around the exit of Canada business. Compared to many other markets that HSBC is exiting, Canada is actually quite profitable market with mid-teens ROE. So just wanted to understand what is the rationale for that exit? And as -- strategically, as you look at the footprint of HSBC, are there any further markets that you are reviewing at the moment?

然後第二個問題是關於加拿大業務的退出。與匯豐正在退出的許多其他市場相比，加拿大實際上是一個相當有利可圖的市場，ROE 在十幾歲左右。所以只是想了解退出的理由是什麼？而且，從戰略上講，當您查看匯豐銀行的足跡時，您目前是否正在審查任何其他市場？

Ewen, do you want to take the first one, I'll take the second?

歐文，你要拿第一個，我拿第二個嗎？

Yes. So look, thanks, you've got our guidance exactly spot on, i.e., on a constant currency basis, revenue is up $1.5 billion, no change in the cost guidance. So on a preprovision level, the -- there should be a $1.5 billion increase. And if you think about the guidance that we've given today on ECLs that even after ECLs, there still should be a net improvement on our guidance on a pretax basis.

是的。所以看，謝謝，我們的指導準確無誤，即在固定貨幣基礎上，收入增加了 15 億美元，成本指導沒有變化。因此，在預置水平上，應該增加 15 億美元。如果您考慮一下我們今天就 ECL 提供的指導，即使在 ECL 之後，我們的稅前指導仍然應該有淨改進。

Thank you. And on Canada, let me explain some of the rationale as to why we're considering alternative options on Canada. Firstly, you're absolutely correct. The business has performed well and is performing well, with a return on capital above our cost of capital and a very strong recovery post COVID. The team have done an extremely good job.

謝謝你。關於加拿大，讓我解釋一下我們為什麼要考慮加拿大的替代選擇的一些理由。首先，你是絕對正確的。該業務表現良好並且表現良好，資本回報率高於我們的資本成本，並且在 COVID 後復蘇非常強勁。團隊做得非常好。

Rationale for considering alternative options are as follows. First, our market share in Canada is around about 3%. And second, it's largely a domestic business. The international connectivity between our Canadian business, particularly in wholesale banking and supply chain finance is less internationally connected than many other markets that we operate in. And then thirdly, we've had strong interest in our business from the point of view of other banks looking to buy it. We clearly have to consider, on behalf of all shareholders, is the value that they would attribute to that business significantly greater than the value of holding our profit stream within HSBC. And we're testing that at this point in time by looking at the strategic options.

考慮替代方案的理由如下。首先，我們在加拿大的市場份額約為 3%。其次，它主要是國內業務。與我們經營的許多其他市場相比，我們加拿大業務之間的國際聯繫，特別是在批發銀行業務和供應鏈金融方面的國際聯繫較少。第三，從其他銀行的角度來看，我們對我們的業務表現出濃厚的興趣想買它。我們顯然必須代表所有股東考慮，他們賦予該業務的價值是否顯著高於在匯豐銀行持有我們的利潤流的價值。我們正在通過查看戰略選擇來測試這一點。

Our assessment is there is a reasonable probability that the value will be significantly accretive. And therefore, it's right that we consider that option. Particularly strategically, as I said, our market share is in the 2% category, and the international connectivity of that business is relatively low. So that's why we've given serious thought to an alternative strategy for Canada. But I reemphasize the management team in Canada have done an excellent job.

我們的評估是有合理的可能性，該價值將顯著增加。因此，我們考慮該選項是正確的。特別是在戰略上，正如我所說，我們的市場份額在 2% 類別，該業務的國際連通性相對較低。因此，我們認真考慮了加拿大的替代戰略。但我再次強調加拿大的管理團隊做得非常出色。

Then you asked me the question on do I consider that same evaluation for other markets. And clearly, we always look, as a management team, on the performance of our businesses, the value in our hands relative to the value in others and also the strategic importance. So we do that. But at the moment, we're only looking at commencing a process on Canada.

然後你問我這個問題，我是否考慮對其他市場進行同樣的評估。顯然，作為一個管理團隊，我們始終關注我們的業務績效、我們手中的價值相對於他人的價值以及戰略重要性。所以我們這樣做。但目前，我們只考慮在加拿大啟動一個進程。

And I can probably anticipate your second question. So let me deal with that now on Mexico. And if I do the same analysis on Mexico, I start with a market share analysis where, depending on the product line, our customer segment, we have somewhere between a 7% and 10% market share of the business in Mexico. So almost stronger market share position. We have strong growth being achieved in our Mexican business at the moment with significant upside potential. I think that's particularly true as we believe that as an international bank in Mexico relative to other competitors, our position as an international bank is being enhanced.

我大概可以預料到你的第二個問題。所以讓我現在在墨西哥處理這個問題。如果我對墨西哥做同樣的分析，我會從市場份額分析開始，根據產品線、我們的客戶群，我們在墨西哥的業務市場份額在 7% 到 10% 之間。所以幾乎更強的市場份額地位。目前，我們的墨西哥業務正在實現強勁增長，並具有巨大的上行潛力。我認為這尤其正確，因為我們認為，作為墨西哥的一家國際銀行，相對於其他競爭對手，我們作為一家國際銀行的地位正在得到加強。

Thirdly, we believe that the supply chain interconnectivity between Mexico, the rest of the world and the U.S. will actually increase in volume of business and business opportunity because it is an important manufacturing base into the U.S. And that's at the core of what we do. And we have a very strong market share position in retail banking in Mexico, with strong interconnectivity between retail and corporate banking in Mexico as a result of the payroll services. And therefore -- and we also believe that we've got strong shareholder value accretion potential by holding our business in Mexico.

第三，我們相信墨西哥、世界其他地區和美國之間的供應鏈互連實際上會增加業務量和商機，因為它是進入美國的重要製造基地，這是我們工作的核心。我們在墨西哥的零售銀行業務中擁有非常強大的市場份額地位，由於工資單服務，墨西哥的零售銀行業務和企業銀行業務之間具有很強的互聯性。因此 - 我們還相信，通過在墨西哥開展業務，我們擁有強大的股東價值增值潛力。

So we're not going through a similar process on Mexico. We think we'll -- we have good opportunities to continue to grow that business. It's starting from a stronger position, and it's not my intention to sell Mexico. So hopefully, that was a reasonably comprehensive answer. As and when we make a final decision on Canada, we will update you on the outcome of that process. Thank you.

所以我們不會在墨西哥經歷類似的過程。我們認為我們將 - 我們有很好的機會繼續發展該業務。它是從一個更強大的位置開始的，我無意出售墨西哥。所以希望這是一個相當全面的答案。當我們對加拿大做出最終決定時，我們將向您更新該過程的結果。謝謝你。

Our next question is from Tom Rayner from Numis.

我們的下一個問題來自 Numis 的 Tom Rayner。

Could I just ask on the cost target for next year, please, the 2% in 2023? Because I think one appreciates it's a pretty tough target given the inflationary environment. Ewen, I think you've said in your chat at the start that it's going to need active cost savings to deliver. Now you pointed out Ewen was fairly key in terms of the cost transformation and installing disciplined cost management. So I guess my question is now that the CFO is leaving, is there a risk that hitting the target may become more dependent on paying back investment rather than finding additional cost savings?

請問明年的成本目標是2023年的2%嗎？因為我認為考慮到通脹環境，這是一個相當艱難的目標。 Ewen，我想你在一開始的聊天中已經說過，它需要積極節省成本才能交付。現在您指出，Ewen 在成本轉換和安裝有紀律的成本管理方面相當關鍵。所以我想我的問題是，現在首席財務官要離開了，是否存在實現目標可能變得更加依賴於投資回報而不是尋找額外成本節約的風險？

I can get -- I can respond to that very categorically. There will be no easing at all in our cost discipline. I'm absolutely committed to that cost target. Ewen has done a tremendous job on driving cost discipline into the bank, but I share that agenda, and I'm committed to that agenda. As we said in the past, we've got a headline target of 2%, around 2%. We know that that's challenging in a high-inflation environment. But we also know we've got cost savings coming through next year from the transformation program we've already embarked upon. And that's the equivalent of 3%. It's about $1 billion of flow-through savings.

我可以得到——我可以非常明確地回應。我們的成本紀律完全不會放鬆。我絕對致力於這個成本目標。 Ewen 在推動銀行成本紀律方面做得非常出色，但我同意這個議程，並且我致力於這個議程。正如我們過去所說，我們的總體目標是 2%，大約 2%。我們知道這在高通脹環境中具有挑戰性。但我們也知道，我們已經開始實施的轉型計劃將在明年節省成本。這相當於 3%。這大約是 10 億美元的流動儲蓄。

We also know we're identifying additional cost savings opportunities through further simplification, further digitization and further organizational change, and that can add to that 5% underlying capacity to pay. So I'm not going to pretend, in a high-inflation environment, the 2% is easy, but I'm also going to be remain absolutely committed to delivering that.

我們還知道，我們正在通過進一步簡化、進一步數字化和進一步的組織變革來發現額外的成本節約機會，這可以增加 5% 的潛在支付能力。所以我不會假裝，在高通脹環境中，2% 很容易，但我也將繼續絕對致力於實現這一目標。

I thank Ewen for all of the great work he's done on instilling those disciplines in the bank. But I will make sure those disciplines remain and are committed for the future. So there's no weakening in that target.

我感謝 Ewen 在向銀行灌輸這些紀律方面所做的所有偉大工作。但我會確保這些學科保持不變，並致力於未來。因此，該目標沒有減弱。

Okay. Okay. And best wishes, Ewen, in whatever you do next.

好的。好的。祝你好運，Ewen，無論你接下來做什麼。

Thank you, Tom.

謝謝你，湯姆。

Our next question is from Manus Costello from Autonomous.

我們的下一個問題來自 Autonomous 的 Manus Costello。

I actually just had a couple. Just to triple clarify on the cost target for next year, the base off which the north to 2% growth comes from is the $29 billion FX-adjusted, not the $30 billion that you have as a year-to-date FX average rate. Is that correct?

我實際上只有一對。只是為了澄清明年的成本目標，北上至 2% 的增長的基礎是 290 億美元的外匯調整後，而不是 300 億美元作為年初至今的外匯平均匯率。那是對的嗎？

Yes. The only caution I would put around that, Manus, is that exchange rate is bouncing around. So that was true at the end of September. Whether it remains true by the end of the year, we'll see.

是的。馬努斯，我唯一要注意的是匯率正在反彈。所以這在九月底是真的。到今年年底是否仍然如此，我們將拭目以待。

But it's on an FX-adjusted basis.

但它是在外匯調整的基礎上。

But the thesis is correct. We're not trying to play games with FX and setting that target.

但論文是正確的。我們並沒有嘗試使用 FX 玩遊戲並設定目標。

Yes. No, it wasn't entirely clear from the release this morning, given the way you've given the $30 billion number that the $29 million is the current starting point.

是的。不，從今天早上的發布來看，還沒有完全清楚，因為你給出了 300 億美元的數字，即 2900 萬美元是當前的起點。

My second question is actually about the commercial real estate outlook in China. When I look at your disclosures, you're taking much higher impairment on your Hong Kong book exposures, in your Mainland book exposures. Are the additional $400 million of impairment you've taken this quarter mostly related to Hong Kong book? And why is Hong Kong so much worse? Is there a risk that, that Hong Kong book could really accelerate away from you? You've taken about 8% or 9% so far of the bookers impairment. Could that be materially higher if there's some kind of structural problem with your lending agreements in Hong Kong?

我的第二個問題實際上是關於中國商業地產的前景。當我查看您的披露時，您在香港賬面風險敞口中的減值幅度要高得多，在您的內地賬面風險敞口中。您本季度額外承擔的 4 億美元減值主要與香港賬面有關嗎？為什麼香港會差這麼多？有沒有風險，那本香港書真的會加速離你而去？到目前為止，您已經承擔了大約 8% 或 9% 的預訂者減值。如果你們在香港的貸款協議存在某種結構性問題，這個數字會不會更高？

Yes, well, it's booked in Hong Kong. It's the offshore component of the China commercial real estate portfolio, Manus. So yes, we've got just under $20 billion of exposure. Just over $7 billion of that is onshore, and just over $12 billion of it is offshore. The offshore book is definitely weaker than the onshore book. Yes, the -- so I would say, if you look at the substandard, we've provided disclosure on substandard and impaired, which is about 35% from memory at midyear on the offshore book and about 3% on the onshore book. So you can see in that very, very different asset quality considerations.

是的，嗯，是在香港訂的。它是中國商業房地產投資組合 Manus 的離岸部分。所以，是的，我們的風險敞口不到 200 億美元。其中超過 70 億美元是在岸，其中超過 120 億美元是在離岸。離岸賬簿肯定弱於在岸賬簿。是的 - 所以我會說，如果你看一下次級標準，我們已經提供了關於次級標準和減值的披露，這大約是離岸賬簿的 35% 和在岸賬簿的 3% 左右。所以你可以看到非常非常不同的資產質量考慮。

Yes, a lot of the policy support that's going through in China is definitely providing a lot of support for the onshore portfolio, providing a lot of liquidity support for the onshore portfolio. And in some cases, it's a question of whether that liquidity for regulatory reasons can be used to support the offshore book. So we do expect there to be further provisioning against the offshore book. But yes, to keep that in context, $12 billion is on a $1 trillion loan portfolio. So it's just over 1% of total exposure we have as a bank.

是的，中國正在經歷的很多政策支持無疑為在岸投資組合提供了大量支持，為在岸投資組合提供了大量流動性支持。在某些情況下，出於監管原因的流動性是否可用於支持離岸賬簿是一個問題。因此，我們確實預計離岸賬簿會有進一步的準備金。但是，是的，為了保持這一點，120 億美元是在 1 萬億美元的貸款組合中。因此，這僅占我們作為銀行的總風險敞口的 1% 以上。

But Noel, I don't know if you've got other comments?

但是Noel，我不知道你有沒有其他意見？

I think it's a fair assessment. The offshore book has a different risk profile to the onshore. But our clients and our onshore portfolio is a relatively high-quality Tier 1, Tier 2 city-orientated book. But what we've got to work out is how the policy measures benefit not just the onshore business but the offshore. And that's still an evolving picture. And therefore, we've got to keep that under close review.

我認為這是一個公平的評價。離岸賬簿與在岸賬簿的風險狀況不同。但我們的客戶和我們的在岸投資組合是一本以城市為導向的相對高質量的 1 級、2 級書籍。但我們必須解決的是，這些政策措施如何不僅使在岸業務受益，而且使離岸業務受益。這仍然是一個不斷發展的畫面。因此，我們必須密切審查這一點。

Should we consider the offshore book at this point to be essentially unsecured if they're not able to get access to any of the liquidity measures and the questions over collateral? Is it effectively an unsecured that you've got offshore on that?

如果離岸賬簿無法獲得任何流動性措施和抵押品問題，我們是否應該認為此時離岸賬簿基本上是無擔保的？你已經離岸了，這實際上是一種無擔保嗎？

Relative to the onshore book, it is less secure than the onshore book, so that is a fair assessment. But is it fair to say that the onshore policy measures will not benefit the offshore book? No, that's not a fair statement. I think we have to see, on a client-by-client basis, how much of the onshore liquidity support can then support that company's ability to service the offshore book. So I wouldn't have a complete separation between on and offshore. It will be client-by-client dependent.

相對於在岸賬簿，它不如在岸賬簿安全，所以這是一個公平的評估。但可以說，在岸政策措施不會有利於離岸賬簿嗎？不，這不是一個公平的說法。我認為我們必須逐個客戶查看，有多少在岸流動性支持可以支持該公司為離岸賬簿提供服務的能力。所以我不會完全區分海上和海上。它將逐個客戶端依賴。

Yes. Manus, I wouldn't describe it as unsecured. Yes, the onshore book is typically secured against specific properties. The offshore book has, yes, less specific security, but there is security underpinning that portfolio. But yes, it's not secured, and it's definitely not unsecured. It sits somewhere between those 2.

是的。 Manus，我不會將其描述為不安全的。是的，在岸賬簿通常以特定財產為抵押。是的，離岸賬簿的具體安全性較低，但該投資組合有安全性支撐。但是，是的，它不是安全的，而且絕對不是不安全的。它位於這兩者之間。

Next question is from the line of Martin Leitgeb from Goldman Sachs.

下一個問題來自高盛的 Martin Leitgeb。

Ewen, let me echo, first of all, earlier comments, and thank Ewen for the good collaboration over the years and all your patience with our questions.

Ewen，首先，讓我回應一下之前的評論，並感謝 Ewen 多年來的良好合作以及您對我們問題的耐心。

If I could just have 2, 1 on pass-throughs and 1 on asset quality. I was just wondering in terms of pass-throughs, earlier comments were on pass-throughs being more benign compared to assumptions you have made earlier in the year. I was just wondering, have you seen any meaningful signs of attrition in your core markets, Hong Kong and U.K. ring-fenced bank, in terms of CASA accounts or current accounts into higher-yielding accounts? Is it something which has started to trend higher and could imply higher pass-throughs going forward?

如果我只能有 2 個，1 個是通過，1 個是資產質量。我只是想知道在傳遞方面，與您在今年早些時候做出的假設相比，早期的評論是傳遞更加溫和。我只是想知道，在 CASA 賬戶或往來賬戶中，您是否在您的核心市場（香港和英國的圍欄銀行）中看到任何有意義的減員跡象？是不是已經開始走高並且可能意味著未來會有更高的通過率？

And secondly, on asset quality, I was just wondering what are the main ramifications you think higher mortgage rates in the U.K. will have? I think, most recently, mortgage rates headline have increased to a level of around 6%. And I was just wondering from the U.K. business perspective, what are the main implications of mortgage rates at such a level?

其次，關於資產質量，我只是想知道您認為英國更高的抵押貸款利率會產生哪些主要影響？我認為，最近，抵押貸款利率已經上升到 6% 左右的水平。我只是想從英國商業的角度來看，如此水平的抵押貸款利率的主要影響是什麼？

Noel, do you want me to go?

諾埃爾，你要我走嗎？

Yes, please, Ewen.

是的，請，埃文。

So on -- look, on the pass-through levels, Martin, they have been, I guess, below expectations so far. But I think they have been rising. And as I said, in our guidance, we've made some reasonably conservative assumptions and cautious assumptions on where deposit betas go to from here. But implied in that comment is materially higher than 50% to what we've seen to date and, again, hence, why I would caution on the -- on using net interest rate sensitivity tables at this point because they're based on a 50% deposit beta, which, I think, are becoming increasingly less relevant as we get to higher rates.

等等——看，在傳遞水平上，馬丁，我猜，到目前為止，它們一直低於預期。但我認為他們一直在上升。正如我所說，在我們的指導中，我們對存款貝塔從這裡到哪裡做了一些相當保守的假設和謹慎的假設。但該評論中隱含的實質上比我們迄今為止所見的高出 50%，因此，我為什麼要警告在這一點上使用淨利率敏感度表，因為它們是基於50% 的存款測試版，我認為，隨著我們獲得更高的利率，它變得越來越不重要。

We haven't seen any material attrition. Where we are seeing is migration out of noninterest-bearing current accounts and savings accounts, and yes, we're starting to see that trend now in Hong Kong pick up a bit given where rates are. But again, just as a reminder, typically, if you looked in previous cycles, our extent of deposit migration out of noninterest-bearing current accounts has been well below sector averages in Hong Kong.

我們沒有看到任何實質性的減員。我們看到的是從不計息的往來賬戶和儲蓄賬戶的遷移，是的，我們開始看到香港的這種趨勢現在有所回升，因為利率在哪裡。但再次提醒一下，如果您查看以前的周期，通常情況下，我們從非計息經常賬戶中轉移的存款程度遠低於香港的行業平均水平。

On asset quality, again, the book in the U.K. is typically a mix of 2-year and 5-year fixed. So yes, the impact of that -- of those higher rates will take time to roll through the book. Yes, they are typically stressed when we put them on to rates of up to 7%. So yes, and if you -- you can look at our IFRS 9 modeling and look at the downside 1 and 2 scenarios if you want to look at the potential sensitivity we have to higher provisioning levels, if you want to take some more adverse scenarios on the outlook for the U.K. But we think as we sit today, yes, we're not complacent about it, but we think, yes, for most of our customers, those higher rates are affordable given on the stress analysis we put on when those loans were put on.

同樣，在資產質量方面，英國的賬簿通常是 2 年期和 5 年期固定期限的組合。所以，是的，那些更高利率的影響將需要時間來完成。是的，當我們將它們提高到高達 7% 的利率時，它們通常會受到壓力。所以是的，如果您想了解我們對更高撥備水平的潛在敏感性，如果您想採取一些更不利的情況，您可以查看我們的 IFRS 9 建模並查看下行 1 和 2 情景關於英國的前景，但我們認為，就我們今天而言，是的，我們並不自滿，但我們認為，是的，對於我們的大多數客戶來說，考慮到我們在這些貸款被放了。

Our next question is from Raul Sinha from JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Raul Sinha。

My best wishes to Ewen as well. Noel, if I can start with a follow-up on your commentary around Canada and Mexico. I'm just trying to understand your reaction function to any incoming capital proceeds that you might generate from M&A. How would you think about capital deployment if you were to reach a position in excess? Would you consider further acquisitions? I think that's one of the comments you've made publicly. Or should we expect that the majority of capital that is generated from these disposals should be returned to shareholders? And the reason I ask for this is, I think, historically, HSBC has linked various share buybacks to specific disposals. And so I was just wondering whether you might be willing to link any subsequent disposal-generated capital proceeds to a direct share buyback.

我也向 Ewen 致以最良好的祝愿。諾埃爾，如果我可以先跟進你在加拿大和墨西哥的評論。我只是想了解你對併購可能產生的任何流入資本收益的反應函數。如果你要達到一個過剩的位置，你會如何考慮資本配置？你會考慮進一步收購嗎？我認為這是您公開發表的評論之一。還是我們應該期望這些處置產生的大部分資本應該返還給股東？我要求這樣做的原因是，我認為，從歷史上看，匯豐銀行將各種股票回購與特定的處置聯繫起來。所以我只是想知道你是否願意將任何後續處置產生的資本收益與直接股票回購聯繫起來。

And I guess the second question I have is remaining on Wealth Management. I was just wondering, obviously, we've been expecting a recovery in wealth in Asia for a while, and things are obviously still challenging on the ground. I was wondering if you could update us in terms of your thoughts around how much -- how the business is positioned going forward and whether or not you see any structural challenges arising from recent developments in terms of wealth growth.

我想我的第二個問題是關於財富管理。我只是想知道，很明顯，我們一直在期待亞洲的財富復甦有一段時間了，而實際情況顯然仍然充滿挑戰。我想知道您是否可以就您對多少的想法更新我們 - 業務如何發展，以及您是否看到最近財富增長方面的發展帶來的任何結構性挑戰。

Thank you. Thanks, Raul. Let me deal with Canada item first. Look, it's still very early in the process on Canada. So I don't want to be too definitive on use of proceeds. But clearly, there would be an expectation -- an element of -- a significant element of the proceeds there is. I don't want to hang on to excess capital. So as we get back into our target range of 14% to 14.5%, which we're going to do without the benefit of Canada, and then if we were to load a Canada disposal in on top of that, you would clearly have excess capital sit into the group.

謝謝你。謝謝，勞爾。讓我先處理加拿大項目。看，加拿大的進程還處於早期階段。所以我不想對收益的使用過於明確。但很明顯，會有一個期望——一個元素——一個重要的收益元素。我不想抓住多餘的資本。因此，當我們回到 14% 到 14.5% 的目標範圍時，我們將在沒有加拿大利益的情況下這樣做，然後如果我們要在此基礎上加載加拿大處置，你顯然會有多餘的資本入組。

Now it would be reasonable to assume that we may retain some of that capital to fund future growth that would emerge in 2024 and beyond. But a good proportion of that capital would be available for distribution. I don't want to give too much guidance on that at this stage. Let us get through the process on Canada. But I have no intention to hang on to excess capital over and above our target range unless we see good opportunities for profitable growth. So I think it would be a reasonable expectation to expect some distribution of that capital back to shareholders in some form.

現在可以合理地假設我們可能會保留部分資本來為 2024 年及以後出現的未來增長提供資金。但其中很大一部分資本將可用於分配。在這個階段我不想給出太多的指導。讓我們完成有關加拿大的進程。但是，除非我們看到有利可圖的增長機會，否則我無意保留超出目標範圍的過剩資本。因此，我認為期望以某種形式將部分資本分配給股東是一個合理的期望。

On Wealth Management, I think on Asia, we're seeing the Hong Kong market reopening. Activity levels domestically are increasing. We're seeing the Hong Kong market reopen internationally. So I think the prospects are far better for 2023 than they have been throughout 2022. So I would expect activity levels to increase. But what you'll also hopefully see is a more stabilization in the equity markets. So the investment environment has not been very supportive, particularly in Asia, even though at the same time as the activity levels have been suppressed. I think if we start to see a stabilization of the market, there'd be an increased appetite to use alternative investment products.

在財富管理方面，我認為在亞洲，我們看到香港市場重新開放。國內的活動水平正在增加。我們看到香港市場在國際上重新開放。因此，我認為 2023 年的前景比 2022 年全年要好得多。所以我預計活動水平會增加。但你也希望看到股市更加穩定。因此，投資環境並不十分有利，尤其是在亞洲，儘管與此同時活動水平受到抑制。我認為，如果我們開始看到市場趨於穩定，那麼使用另類投資產品的興趣就會增加。

And what I referenced in my opening comments is we're building the platform for future earnings growth from wealth by continuing to accumulate net new assets. And as we talked about in the last 12 months, we've accumulated $91 billion of net new assets. That $91 billion, given the suppressed market situation and investment appetite at the moment, is not yet producing good earnings, but it will do in the future. That is a platform for future wealth earnings that we're continuing to accumulate.

我在開場白中提到的是，我們正在通過繼續積累淨新資產來為未來的財富增長建立平台。正如我們在過去 12 個月中談到的那樣，我們已經積累了 910 億美元的淨新資產。鑑於目前受抑制的市場形勢和投資意願，這 910 億美元尚未產生良好的收益，但它會在未來產生。這是我們繼續積累的未來財富收益的平台。

And I liken it to what we did in the deposit book. We still accumulated deposits from good operating accounts, particularly in wholesale banking and retail banking, noninterest-bearing operating accounts. And we did that during the times when they weren't earning a revenue stream. And now we're getting the benefit of that. And that's exactly what we're now doing on wealth. We're continuing to expand customer acquisition, asset acquisition in order to build a platform for future wealth revenue growth. Thank you.

我把它比作我們在存款簿中所做的。我們仍然從良好的經營賬戶中積累存款，特別是在批發銀行和零售銀行的無息經營賬戶中。我們是在他們沒有獲得收入來源的時候這樣做的。現在我們正在從中受益。這正是我們現在在財富方面所做的。我們將繼續擴大客戶獲取、資產獲取，為未來的財富收入增長搭建平台。謝謝你。

We have time for one more question from Aman Rakkar from Barclays.

我們有時間再向巴克萊銀行的 Aman Rakkar 提出一個問題。

Ewen, I just wanted to say congratulations and look forward to hearing what you do next. Can I just squeeze in 2 questions, please? Sorry to come back to net interest income. But the guide for next year, I am really struggling to make sense or -- I do appreciate there's a greater than symbol that's sitting in front of that guidance. But if I was just to mechanically take your $32 billion guide this year, the Q4 exit NIM run rate or NII run rate annualizes at around $36 billion for next year. So I mean you're basically assuming absolutely no incremental rate benefit in your next year. The assumptions that must sit behind that must be extremely conservative. I appreciate you're talking about betas above 50%. Can you please -- can you help us just understand a bit more exactly if there's something we're missing and the extent to which those numbers are conservative?

Ewen，我只想說祝賀，並期待聽到你接下來的表現。請問我可以擠2個問題嗎？很抱歉回到淨利息收入。但是對於明年的指南，我真的很難理解，或者——我確實很欣賞這個指南前面有一個比符號更重要的符號。但如果我只是機械地接受你今年 320 億美元的指導，那麼明年第四季度退出 NIM 運行率或 NII 運行率每年約為 360 億美元。所以我的意思是你基本上假設你明年絕對不會增加利率收益。必須支持的假設必須非常保守。我很欣賞你在談論超過 50% 的測試版。您能否請您幫助我們更準確地了解我們是否缺少某些東西以及這些數字在多大程度上是保守的？

And then secondly, I wondered, actually, if you had an update for us on the impact of IFRS 17 on your P&L. I'm mindful that we're some kind of 2 months away actually from the implementation of it. You've given us some guidance before. Could you help us understand the kind of the impact on NII fees and costs? The reason I'm asking is because your fee income performance, your noninterest income performance in Q3 is actually quite robust. If I add back in the $600 million of mark-to-market negative that you had, you're actually annualizing at quite a healthy clip. I need to understand how much I should be taking off that for IFRS 17 to work out if consensus next year is in the right place. Anything you can help us with there would be really appreciated.

其次，我想知道，實際上，您是否向我們提供了有關 IFRS 17 對您的損益表影響的最新信息。我注意到我們實際上距離實施它還有 2 個月的時間。你以前給過我們一些指導。您能否幫助我們了解對 NII 費用和成本的影響？我問的原因是因為您的費用收入表現，您在第三季度的非利息收入表現實際上非常強勁。如果我把你所擁有的 6 億美元的按市值計算的負數加回來，你實際上是在一個相當健康的水平上進行年化。如果明年的共識在正確的地方，我需要了解我應該在多大程度上取消 IFRS 17 的工作。任何你能幫助我們的事情都會非常感激。

Yes. Well, to start with IFRS 17. Look, I appreciate that we're sort of in an awkward phase at the moment with some of you modeling IFRS 17 numbers in terms of your forecast and some of you is still on IFRS 4. And yes, we're not able to -- and we're giving our guidance at the moment based on IFRS 4 rather than IFRS 17. So look, I think we are going to be in that sort of unsatisfactory position for a few quarters as we work to give you a sort of IFRS 17-adjusted view of the world in the coming quarters.

是的。好吧，從 IFRS 17 開始。看，我很欣賞我們目前處於一個尷尬的階段，你們中的一些人根據您的預測對 IFRS 17 數字進行建模，而你們中的一些人仍在使用 IFRS 4。是的，我們不能——而且我們目前根據 IFRS 4 而不是 IFRS 17 提供指導。所以看，我認為我們將在幾個季度內處於那種令人不滿意的境地，因為我們努力在未來幾個季度為您提供一種經 IFRS 17 調整的世界觀。

But just to repeat, what we said a couple of quarters ago, we expect reported earnings to be down by around 2/3. I think as part of that, you need to adjust out the impact of MCU. And we expect TNAV to be down around $3 billion and that the net impact on RoTE as a result of that to be relatively de minimis. So I think, yes, the latest internal numbers we're looking at is around 10 basis points of impact on '23 RoTE, but those numbers are still sort of being worked on.

但重複一遍，我們幾個季度前說過的話，我們預計報告的收益將下降約 2/3。我認為作為其中的一部分，您需要調整 MCU 的影響。我們預計 TNAV 將下降約 30 億美元，因此對 RoTE 的淨影響相對較小。所以我認為，是的，我們正在查看的最新內部數據對 '23 RoTE 的影響約為 10 個基點，但這些數據仍在處理中。

So look, I appreciate it's an unsatisfactory position for all of you. We are working as hard as we can to get to a position where we can provide you clarity or better clarity, and when we can, we'll update the market.

所以看，我很欣賞這對你們所有人來說都是一個不滿意的位置。我們正在盡我們所能努力達到一個可以為您提供清晰或更清晰的位置，並且當我們可以時，我們將更新市場。

Just on the comments on the maths of 4 times 9 to get to $36 billion, I think you do need to add the $1.3 billion on top of that for the switch into trading income. That is an uplift in the guidance that we're giving and an addition to that annualized rate of $36 billion. So I think we would say $37.3 billion plays $36 billion in your maths.

僅根據對 4 乘以 9 的數學評論得出 360 億美元，我認為您確實需要在此基礎上再加上 13 億美元才能轉換為交易收入。這是我們提供的指導的提升，也是對 360 億美元的年化率的補充。所以我認為我們會說 373 億美元在你的數學中佔 360 億美元。

And then I sort of revert back to the conservatism or caution on other assumptions we're making. And yes, the reason for that is just we genuinely think we are facing a relatively unprecedented period given the sharpness of rate rises that we've seen. And we are generally trying to be cautious on giving you guidance over the next couple of quarters. But if we find going into Q4 that our assumptions can be upgraded, I'm sure Georges and Noel will be talking to you about that at full year results.

然後我有點回到保守主義或對我們所做的其他假設持謹慎態度。是的，原因是我們真的認為我們正面臨一個相對前所未有的時期，因為我們已經看到了加息的急劇增長。在接下來的幾個季度中，我們通常會謹慎地為您提供指導。但如果我們發現進入第四季度，我們的假設可以升級，我相信 Georges 和 Noel 會在全年業績中與您討論這一點。

Would you be tempted to kind of guide for your expectations for noninterest income next year based on your current understanding of the momentum?

根據您目前對勢頭的理解，您是否願意為您對明年非利息收入的預期提供某種指導？

Look, at some point, I think we'll be accused to providing a profit warning when we're giving you guidance on net interest income, noninterest income and costs and the (inaudible). So we allow you to at least model on one of those items.

看，在某些時候，我認為當我們向您提供有關淨利息收入、非利息收入和成本以及（聽不清）的指導時，我們會被指責提供盈利警告。因此，我們允許您至少對其中一項進行建模。

But I mean joking aside, if you think about the trends and noninterest income this year, I mean, I think, you do need to add back about $1 billion like-for-like on insurance MCU. Yes, I think some of the other line items when you go through it, some have clearly benefited this year. Some have significantly underperformed. When you go through the Global Banking and Markets' P&L, there's a lot of pluses and minuses in performance this year. I think we've talked about wealth and the depressed conditions for wealth this year. But even just on a pure technical basis, I think you need to add $1 billion back for the insurance MCU.

但我的意思是開玩笑，如果你考慮今年的趨勢和非利息收入，我的意思是，我認為你確實需要在保險 MCU 上以類似的方式增加約 10 億美元。是的，我認為當你經歷它時，其他一些項目，今年顯然有一些受益。有些表現明顯不佳。當您查看全球銀行和市場的損益表時，今年的表現有很多優點和缺點。我想我們今年已經談到了財富和財富的低迷狀況。但即使只是在純技術基礎上，我認為你需要為保險 MCU 增加 10 億美元。

Yes. And I think if you look at the underlying fee growth, I mean -- or the non-NII, we've seen very strong Global Markets performance in the volatile markets. We've seen suppressed event-based fees because of the low activity in M&A and capital markets. We can each have a view as to whether some of that event activity will come back next year. But there's a probability that there's an element of that going to be coming back next year.

是的。而且我認為，如果您查看基本費用增長，我的意思是 - 或非 NII，我們已經看到在動蕩的市場中全球市場表現非常強勁。由於併購和資本市場的活動低迷，我們看到基於事件的費用受到抑制。我們每個人都可以了解其中一些活動是否會在明年回歸。但是有可能明年會再次出現這種情況。

And you're going to have a continuation of good fee growth on GLCM or Global Payments Solutions in both CMB and GB&M. I don't see that trend declining. I see that trend continuing of good fee generation there. And as I said earlier, my expectation is there'll be an opportunity for some growth in our fees around Wealth Management as both activities and markets start to pick up and investment starts to flow back into alternative asset classes.

您將在 CMB 和 GB&M 的 GLCM 或 Global Payments Solutions 上繼續保持良好的費用增長。我認為這種趨勢不會下降。我看到那裡繼續產生良好的收費趨勢。正如我之前所說，我的預期是，隨著活動和市場開始回暖，投資開始回流到另類資產類別，我們的財富管理費用將有機會增長。

So -- but it's unpredictable at this stage. We'll have to see how next year goes. But I think there are some elements of our fee performance that are going to be enduring.

所以——但在這個階段它是不可預測的。我們將不得不看看明年的情況。但我認為我們的收費表現中的一些要素將持續存在。

With that, if I can just share some closing remarks, I'd appreciate it. Firstly, thank you very much for joining the call today and your questions. To close, just a few summary comments.

有了這個，如果我能分享一些結束語，我將不勝感激。首先，非常感謝您今天參加電話會議並提出您的問題。結束，只是一些總結性的評論。

We had another good quarter, with underlying growth in all businesses, positive impact of rate rises and continued tight cost control. We remain on track to hit all of our financial targets, including a RoTE of at least 12% from 2023 onwards. I want to reassure you, there will be no change in our strategy or our commitment to cost discipline as a consequence of the people changes we've announced today.

我們又迎來了一個不錯的季度，所有業務都實現了基本增長，加息的積極影響以及持續的嚴格成本控制。我們仍有望實現所有財務目標，包括從 2023 年起至少 12% 的 RoTE。我想向您保證，由於我們今天宣布的人員變動，我們的戰略或我們對成本紀律的承諾不會發生變化。

I want to reiterate my thanks to Ewen for all that he's done for the bank over the past 4 years and the support he's given to both myself personally, as I entered the CEO role and the advice and guidance he gave me, and also the support he's given to the wider team within HSBC. And I welcome Georges into the new role on the 1st of January and ask for your support and assistance in Georges taking on that new role, and I wish him all the best in that regard.

我想再次感謝 Ewen，感謝他在過去 4 年中為銀行所做的一切，以及他在我擔任 CEO 時對我個人的支持，以及他給我的建議和指導，以及他對我的支持他被分配給匯豐銀行內部更廣泛的團隊。我歡迎喬治在 1 月 1 日擔任新職務，並在喬治擔任新職務時尋求您的支持和幫助，我祝愿他在這方面一切順利。

Thank you. I'll speak to you again with our full year 2022 results, if not before. Have a good morning or afternoon.

謝謝你。如果不是在此之前，我將再次與您交流我們的 2022 年全年業績。祝您早上或下午愉快。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. That concludes the call for the HSBC Holdings plc Q3 2022 Results. You may now disconnect. Thank you very much.

謝謝你們，女士們，先生們。匯豐控股有限公司 2022 年第三季度業績的呼籲到此結束。您現在可以斷開連接。非常感謝。