漢威聯合 (HON) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Honeywell third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's call is being recorded.

感謝您的耐心等待，歡迎參加霍尼韋爾 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，今天的通話正在錄音。

I would now like to hand the call over to Sean Meakim, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將電話轉交給投資者關係副總裁 Sean Meakim。請繼續。

Thank you. Good morning, and welcome to Honeywell's third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. On the call with me today are Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Vimal Kapur; Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Greg Lewis; and Vice President of Corporate Finance, Mike Stepniak. This webcast and the presentation materials, including non-GAAP reconciliations, are available on our Investor Relations website. From time to time, we post new information that may be of interest or material to our investors on this website.

謝謝。早安，歡迎參加霍尼韋爾 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。今天與我通話的是董事長兼執行長 Vimal Kapur；資深副總裁兼財務長格雷格·劉易斯；和企業財務副總裁 Mike Stepniak。此網路廣播和簡報資料（包括非公認會計原則調節表）可在我們的投資者關係網站上取得。我們會不時在本網站上發布投資者可能感興趣或重要的新資訊。

Our discussion today includes forward-looking statements that are based on our best view of the world and of our businesses as we see them today. and are subject to risks and uncertainties, including the ones described in our SEC filings. This morning, we will review our financial results for the third quarter, share our guidance for the fourth quarter and provide an update on full year 2024. As always, we'll leave time for your questions at the end.

我們今天的討論包括基於我們今天對世界和我們業務的最佳看法的前瞻性陳述。並面臨風險和不確定性，包括我們在 SEC 文件中描述的風險和不確定性。今天早上，我們將回顧第三季的財務業績，分享第四季度的指引，並提供 2024 年全年的最新情況。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Chairman and CEO, Vimal Kapur.

接下來，我會將電話轉給董事長兼執行長 Vimal Kapur。

Thank you, Sean, and good morning, everyone. To start, I would like to highlight the significant leadership change announced earlier in the third quarter. After we report our 2024 financial results at the beginning of next year, Greg Lewis will step down as Chief Financial Officer of Honeywell, and Greg will enter a new role as Senior Vice President of Honeywell Accelerator and serve as a special adviser to me. I would like to express my sincere thanks to Greg for his partnership with me through my first year as CEO and his successful performance as CFO since 2018. He guided the company through multiple reorganizations and significant M&A activity and his leadership was critical to transforming Honeywell into the digital operator it is today.

謝謝肖恩，大家早安。首先，我想強調第三季早些時候宣布的重大領導層變動。明年初我們公佈 2024 年財務業績後，格雷格·劉易斯 (Greg Lewis) 將辭去霍尼韋爾首席財務官一職，格雷格將出任霍尼韋爾加速器高級副總裁，並擔任我的特別顧問。我謹向格雷格表示衷心感謝，感謝他在我擔任首席執行官的第一年中與我的合作以及他自2018 年以來擔任首席財務官的成功表現。併購活動，他的領導力對於將霍尼韋爾轉變為今天的數位營運商。

Mike Stepniak, Former Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Aerospace Technologies will succeed Greg in February. Mike will serve as Vice President of Corporate Finance and work closely with Greg and me during this transition. I would like to consulate Mike and express my deeply rooted confidence in his readiness to lead Honeywell with me into our next stage of growth and innovation as we continue to deliver value for our shareholders. With that, let's turn to slide 3. Honeywell demonstrated a commitment to operational excellence in the third quarter, exceeding the high end of our adjusted earnings per share and segment margin guidance ranges despite sales coming in below our guided range.

航空航太技術公司前副總裁兼財務長 Mike Stepniak 將在二月份接替格雷格。麥克將擔任企業財務副總裁，並在過渡期間與格雷格和我密切合作。我想諮詢麥克，並表達我對他願意帶領霍尼韋爾與我一起進入下一階段的成長和創新的堅定信心，繼續為股東創造價值。接下來，讓我們轉向幻燈片3。範圍的上限。

near-term delays in a couple of the project-led businesses, lack of short cycle improvement and some discrete supply chain disruption in September in Aerospace have caused us to [rebaseline] our expectations for the year. Although the organic growth of 3% in the quarter was below our guidance, we continue to be encouraged by sustained strength in Aerospace Technologies output, further sequential progress in building automation and ongoing positive order trends.

一些專案主導業務的近期延誤、缺乏短週期改進以及 9 月航空航太領域的一些離散供應鏈中斷導致我們[重新設定]今年的預期。儘管本季 3% 的有機成長低於我們的指導，但航空航天技術產出的持續強勁、樓宇自動化的進一步連續進展以及持續的積極訂單趨勢繼續令我們感到鼓舞。

Before we dive down into more detailed discussion on the results and updated outlook for 2024, I would like to reiterate the strategic priorities that are cornerstone of my tenure as CEO and our latest progress against them. First priority is the acceleration of profitable organic growth towards the upper end of our long-term target range of 4% to 7%. While our recent performance has been below this target, we are accelerating driving new product innovation and commercial excellence to support higher growth rates in future, and we are already seeing returns of this strategy.

在我們深入討論 2024 年業績和最新展望之前，我想重申一下作為執行長任期基石的策略重點以及我們在這些方面取得的最新進展。首要任務是加速獲利有機成長，達到我們長期目標範圍 4% 至 7% 的上限。雖然我們最近的業績低於這一目標，但我們正在加速推動新產品創新和商業卓越，以支持未來更高的成長率，而且我們已經看到了這項策略的回報。

We booked a record $1 billion of orders in UOP showing the strength of our technology and the promise of our sustainability offerings. This quarter, [Elektra] selected Honeywell's flight control computers and electromechanical actuation system for its hybrid electric short takeoff and landing aircraft. Earlier this week, we announced a new partnership with Google Cloud, leveraging Google's Vertex AI and Honeywell Forge to accelerate our customer transition from automation to autonomous operations. By continuing to focus our effort on these key strategies, we are confident that we will be able to deliver organic growth at upper end of our long range in the future. Second, we are making headway on the evolution of our accelerator operating system, transforming the way we run the company to extract incremental value from our operations and drive growth.

我們在 UOP 預訂了創紀錄的 10 億美元訂單，這顯示了我們的技術實力和永續發展產品的承諾。本季度，[Elektra]為其混合電動短距起降飛機選擇了霍尼韋爾的飛行控制電腦和機電驅動系統。本週早些時候，我們宣布與 Google Cloud 建立新的合作關係，利用 Google 的 Vertex AI 和 Honeywell Forge 加速我們的客戶從自動化到自主營運的過渡。透過持續將精力集中在這些關鍵策略上，我們有信心未來能夠在長期範圍的高端實現有機成長。其次，我們正在加速器作業系統的發展方面取得進展，改變我們經營公司的方式，以從我們的營運中獲取增量價值並推動成長。

Accelerator is unlocking new ways for us to leverage our well-established digital backbone to enhance top line growth and expand margins in addition to successfully integrating our recent portfolio additions, we are leveraging our digital domain through our Honeywell Forge IoT platform, creating recurring revenue streams that are delivering increased value for our customers and shareholders alike. And third, we are accelerating value creation through the simplification of Honeywell and optimization of our portfolio, pursuing accretive bolt-on and tuck-in acquisition as well as targeted noncore divestitures that will lead to improved financial performance, strong cash generation and an increasingly attractive outlook for investors.

Accelerator 正在為我們開啟新的方式，利用我們完善的數位骨幹來提高營收成長並擴大利潤率。 ，創造經常性收入流為我們的客戶和股東帶來更高的價值。第三，我們正在透過簡化霍尼韋爾和優化我們的產品組合來加速價值創造，追求增值性的補強和整合收購以及有針對性的非核心資產剝離，這將改善財務業績、強勁的現金生成和越來越有吸引力的資產。

Before we discuss our results for the third quarter in more detail, let me take a moment to talk about in more depth about our progress on portfolio shaping on slide 4. The end of the third quarter marks one full year since we announced the reorganization of our businesses around the three powerful megatrends of automation, the future of aviation and energy transition. I'm proud of the progress we have demonstrated on our portfolio strategy in 2024, particularly as our efforts have borne fruit over the past few months.

在我們更詳細地討論第三季的業績之前，讓我花點時間更深入地談談我們在幻燈片4 上的投資組合塑造方面的進展。了。我對 2024 年我們的投資組合策略所取得的進展感到自豪，特別是我們的努力在過去幾個月中取得了成果。

we have remained disciplined in our commitment to executing strategic bolt-on M&A that aligns with our three key mega trends and are accretive to our financial profile. We have successfully closed for acquisitions this year, representing over $9 billion in deployed capital to M&A. All four deals fit seamlessly into our portfolio, bolstering our capability across automation, aerospace and energy transition and enhancing our growth trajectory. We are happy to welcome our new future shapers of Honeywell, and we are excited by the substantial possibilities in front of us as we work to ensure seamless integration across all three business segments. In addition, earlier this month, we took another important step in our simplification journey, announcing our plans to spin off advanced materials into an independent, publicly traded company.

我們始終恪守承諾，執行策略性補強併購，這些併購符合我們的三大主要趨勢，並能增強我們的財務狀況。今年我們已成功完成收購，用於併購的部署資本超過 90 億美元。所有四筆交易都無縫融入我們的投資組合，增強了我們在自動化、航空航太和能源轉型方面的能力，並增強了我們的成長軌跡。我們很高興歡迎霍尼韋爾新的未來塑造者，我們對在我們努力確保所有三個業務部門的無縫整合過程中所面臨的巨大可能性感到興奮。此外，本月早些時候，我們在簡化之旅中又邁出了重要一步，宣布計劃將先進材料分拆為獨立的上市公司。

As a global leader in sustainability focused specialty chemicals and materials, advanced materials will be positioned to benefit from financial flexibility to pursue the next generation of sustainable refrigerants and other valuable solution for customers in electronic materials that support the semiconductor industry, industrial grade fibers and highly engineered health care application. This quarter, we also made the decision to reclassify the personal protective equipment or PPE business as asset held for sale. This move will help us further strengthen our core business and will be accretive to Honeywell's organic growth and margin rate. We will provide more details once a sale has been announced. The acquisitions we have made this year, along with the share buybacks, dividend and high-return CapEx will add up to a record $14 billion in capital deployed in 2024.

作為專注於永續發展的特種化學品和材料領域的全球領導者，先進材料將受益於財務靈活性，以追求下一代可持續冷媒和其他有價值的解決方案，為電子材料領域的客戶提供支持，支持半導體產業、工業級纖維和高性能材料。本季度，我們也決定將個人防護裝備或 PPE 業務重新分類為持有待售資產。此舉將幫助我們進一步加強核心業務，並將促進霍尼韋爾的有機成長和利潤率。一旦宣佈出售，我們將提供更多詳細資訊。我們今年進行的收購，加上股票回購、股利和高回報資本支出，到 2024 年部署的資本將達到創紀錄的 140 億美元。

We believe this demonstrates meaningful progress towards strengthening and simplifying our portfolio. However, our work is not yet done and will continue to leverage portfolio optimization as a fundamental pillar of growth and margin enhancement into 2025 and beyond.

我們相信，這表明我們在加強和簡化我們的產品組合方面取得了有意義的進展。然而，我們的工作尚未完成，並將繼續利用投資組合優化作為 2025 年及以後成長和利潤提升的基本支柱。

With that, now let me turn it to Greg on slide 5 to discuss our third quarter results in more detail as well as provide an update on the fourth quarter and full year guidance.

現在，讓我將幻燈片 5 上的格雷格轉給格雷格，更詳細地討論我們第三季的業績，並提供第四季度和全年指導的最新情況。

Thank you, Vimal, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin on slide 5. We navigated through a challenging operational environment in the third quarter, delivering segment margin and adjusted earnings per share above the high end of our guidance range and 10% increased cash flow despite coming in below our sales guidance. The main driver of the sales miss was performance below our prior expectations in Industrial Automation as our revenues were sequentially flat across the portfolio. We were also impacted by some discrete manufacturing disruptions in September, including Hurricane Helane and a separate fire at one of our aerospace technology plants.

謝謝你，Vimal，大家早安。我將從幻燈片5 開始。了10%。銷售失誤的主要原因是工業自動化領域的表現低於我們先前的預期，因為我們整個產品組合的收入連續持平。 9 月份，我們也受到了一些離散製造中斷的影響，包括颶風海蘭和我們的一家航空航天技術工廠發生的另一起火災。

All in, this led to third quarter organic sales growth of 3% year over year, with three segments remaining in positive territory and double-digit growth in Defense and Space and commercial aviation original equipment in aerospace. This was the first full quarter of impact from the acquisition of Access Solutions, and we're pleased with the performance of that business in the early days of integration. We also saw approximately one month of impact in Aerospace from the case and Chivatanabi acquisitions. On orders, we grew 2% organically year-over-year with a book-to-bill of 1.1, led by double-digit growth in Energy and Sustainability Solutions and building automation. This order strength drove a 10% year-over-year improvement in backlog to a record $34 billion.

總而言之，這導致第三季有機銷售額年增 3%，其中三個細分市場保持正成長，國防和航太以及航空航太領域的商用航空原始設備實現兩位數成長。這是收購 Access Solutions 產生的第一個完整季度的影響，我們對該業務在整合初期的表現感到滿意。我們也看到該案和 Chivatanabi 收購對航空航太業產生了大約一個月的影響。在訂單方面，我們的有機年增長了 2%，訂單出貨比為 1.1，其中能源和永續解決方案以及樓宇自動化領域實現了兩位數成長。訂單強勁推動積壓訂單年增 10%，達到創紀錄的 340 億美元。

Excluding the impact of M&A, backlog grew 6% year-over-year and 4% sequentially. Although sales came in below our expectations, profit remained resilient as we leveraged our Honeywell Accelerator operating system and cost management capabilities to protect our bottom line. Segment profit grew 6% year-over-year led by double-digit growth in Aerospace. Segment margin remained flat at 23.6%, 30 basis points above the high end of our guidance as expansion in industrial automation, building automation and energy and sustainability solutions was offset by higher corporate costs year-over-year, mainly due to our investment in our digital infrastructure. Earnings per share for the third quarter was $2.16, down 5% year over year and adjusted earnings per share was $2.58, up 8% year over year and above the high end of our guidance range, driven primarily by segment profit growth and lower interest expense due to timing of M&A deal closures.

排除併購的影響，積壓訂單年增 6%，季增 4%。儘管銷售額低於我們的預期，但由於我們利用霍尼韋爾加速器作業系統和成本管理能力來保護我們的利潤，利潤仍然保持彈性。在航空航太領域兩位數成長的帶動下，該部門利潤年增 6%。分部利潤率持平於23.6%，比我們指導的上限高出30 個基點，因為工業自動化、樓宇自動化以及能源和永續發展解決方案的擴張被逐年上升的企業成本所抵消，這主要是由於我們對數位基礎設施。第三季每股收益為 2.16 美元，年減 5%，調整後每股收益為 2.58 美元，年增 8%，高於我們指導範圍的上限，這主要是由部門利潤增長和利息支出下降推動的由於併購交易結束的時間。

We took a charge in the quarter as a result of our decision to exit the PPE business in industrial automation. A bridge for adjusted EPS from 3Q '23 to 3Q '24 can be found in the appendix of this presentation. Free cash flow in the quarter was $1.7 billion, up 10% year-over-year due to stronger operational income and higher collections. On capital deployment, we put $3.1 billion to work in the third quarter with $2.1 billion in M&A, $700 million in dividends and $300 million in high-return capital expenditures. As Vimal highlighted, we made significant progress this quarter and are on track to deploy over $14 billion in capital this year, and our work is not yet done, as we continue to leverage our balance sheet into 2025 reshaping the portfolio.

由於我們決定退出工業自動化領域的個人防護用品業務，我們在本季收取了費用。可以在本簡報的附錄中找到從 23 年第三季到 24 年第三季調整後每股盈餘的橋樑。由於營運收入增加和收款增加，本季自由現金流為 17 億美元，較去年同期成長 10%。在資本部署方面，我們第三季投入了31億美元，其中21億美元用於併購，7億美元用於股息，3億美元用於高回報資本支出。正如 Vimal 所強調的那樣，我們本季取得了重大進展，今年預計將部署超過 140 億美元的資本，但我們的工作尚未完成，我們將繼續利用我們的資產負債表到 2025 年重塑投資組合。

Now let's spend a few minutes on the third quarter performance by business. In aerospace technologies, sales were up 10% organically year over year, the ninth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. Sales were led by double-digit growth in defense and space, where we continue to unlock volume from our robust backlog through sustained global demand. In commercial aviation, we saw another quarter of double-digit growth in original equipment sales as shipset deliveries increased with particular strength in business and general aviation. Commercial aftermarket saw continued growth as global flight activity continues to rise.

現在讓我們花幾分鐘時間來了解第三季的業務表現。在航空航天技術領域，銷售額較去年同期有機成長 10%，連續第九個季度實現兩位數成長。國防和航太領域的銷售額呈現兩位數成長，我們透過持續的全球需求持續從強勁的積壓訂單中釋放銷售量。在商用航空領域，隨著船舶交付量的增加，尤其是商務航空和通用航空的強勁成長，我們看到原始設備銷售額又實現了四分之一的兩位數成長。隨著全球航班活動持續增加，商業售後市場持續成長。

Despite some discrete supply chain disruptions in September that impacted our air transport OE business, output improved 13% in the quarter as we made sequential progress in supply chain the ninth consecutive quarter of double-digit output growth. Segment margin remained flat year over year at 27.7% in the third quarter as commercial excellence and productivity actions were offset by cost inflation and mix pressure within original equipment. Industrial automation sales were flat sequentially, but decreased 5% organically in the quarter, primarily due to lower volumes in warehouse and workflow solutions and short-cycle safety and sensing technologies.

儘管9 月出現了一些離散的供應鏈中斷，影響了我們的航空運輸OE 業務，但由於我們在供應鏈方面取得了連續第九個季度兩位數產出成長的連續進展，本季產出仍增長了13%。第三季度，該部門的利潤率與去年同期相比持平，為 27.7%，因為商業卓越和生產力行動被成本通膨和原始設備內的混合壓力所抵消。工業自動化銷售額環比持平，但本季有機下降 5%，這主要是由於倉庫和工作流程解決方案以及短週期安全和感測技術的銷售下降。

Process solutions sales grew 2% year over year and 1% sequentially in the quarter, driven by strength in our aftermarket services and compressor controls businesses, partially offset by demand softness in smart energy and thermal solutions as well as some delays in our projects business. Sensing and Safety Technologies sales declined year-over-year and sequentially, but the sensing business delivered modest sequential growth for the second consecutive quarter.

在我們的售後服務和壓縮機控制業務實力的推動下，本季度流程解決方案銷售額同比增長2%，環比增長1%，但部分被智能能源和熱力解決方案需求疲軟以及項目業務的一些延遲所抵消。感測和安全技術銷售額較去年同期下降，但感測業務連續第二季實現小幅環比成長。

In productivity solutions and services, orders and organic sales grew double digits year over year when excluding the impact of the Zebra license and settlement payments that ended in the first quarter of this year. Industrial automation segment margin expanded 60 basis points to 20.3% due to productivity actions and commercial excellence, partly offset by cost inflation and volume leverage. In building automation, sales grew 14% year over year and 11% sequentially, thanks to a full quarter of the Access Solutions acquisition and acceleration in the fire business. Organically, BA sales were up 3%, supported by another quarter of solid performance in building solutions. Solutions grew 8% in the quarter, driven by another double-digit growth performance in projects and sequential growth in services.

在生產力解決方案和服務方面，排除今年第一季結束的 Zebra 許可和和解付款的影響，訂單和有機銷售額同比增長兩位數。由於生產力提升和商業卓越，工業自動化部門的利潤率擴大了 60 個基點，達到 20.3%，但部分被成本通膨和銷售槓桿所抵消。在樓宇自動化領域，銷售額年增 14%，環比成長 11%，這得益於整個季度對 Access Solutions 的收購以及消防業務的加速發展。整體而言，BA 銷售額成長了 3%，這得益於建築解決方案又一個季度的穩健表現。在專案業績再次實現兩位數成長以及服務連續成長的推動下，本季解決方案成長了 8%。

Product sales declined slightly year-over-year but saw sequential improvement organically for the second straight quarter, thanks to strength in fire. Building automation orders continue to be a bright spot, led by 25% and year over year growth in building solutions on continued strong demand in data centers, health care and energy. Segment margin expanded 30 basis points to 25.9% and due to the impact of a full quarter from Access Solutions and commercial excellence, partially offset by cost inflation. Energy and sustainability solutions sales grew 1% organically in the third quarter. Advanced materials grew 3% year-on-year due to further improvement in specialty chemicals and materials, particularly in Spectra and continued growth in flooring products.

產品銷售較去年同期略有下降，但由於火力強勁，連續第二季有機連續改善。樓宇自動化訂單繼續成為亮點，由於資料中心、醫療保健和能源的持續強勁需求，樓宇解決方案訂單年增 25%。由於 Access Solutions 和商業卓越的整個季度的影響，該部門利潤率擴大了 30 個基點，達到 25.9%，部分被成本上漲所抵消。第三季能源和永續發展解決方案銷售額有機成長 1%。由於特種化學品和材料（特別是 Spectra）的進一步改進以及地板產品的持續增長，先進材料比去年同期增長 3%。

UOP sales declined 2% as growth in aftermarket services and Catalyst was offset by softness due to project timing. Orders in UOP were up over 50% in the quarter to a record $1 billion with strength in core process technologies and a record of more than $200 million in sustainable technology solutions. This marks the third consecutive quarter with ESS book-to-bill at 1.2. Segment margin expanded 10 basis points to 24.5% due to commercial excellence, net of inflation. Overall, our accelerator playbook continues to serve us well as we once again demonstrated our ability to protect margins even in a lower growth environment. Healthy orders, record backlog and accretive growth rates across the M&A deals we have closed this year give us confidence in our ability to drive improved organic growth in the future.

UOP 銷售額下降 2%，原因是售後服務和 Catalyst 的成長被專案時機所致的疲軟所抵消。憑藉核心製程技術的優勢以及創紀錄的超過 2 億美元的可持續技術解決方案，UOP 本季度訂單增長了 50% 以上，達到創紀錄的 10 億美元。這標誌著 ESS 訂單出貨比連續第三個季度達到 1.2。由於商業卓越（扣除通貨膨脹因素），該部門利潤率擴大了 10 個基點，達到 24.5%。總體而言，我們的加速器策略繼續為我們提供良好服務，因為我們再次證明了即使在成長較低的環境中也能保護利潤的能力。我們今年完成的併購交易的健康訂單、創紀錄的積壓訂單和成長率使我們對未來推動有機成長的能力充滿信心。

With that, let's turn to slide 6 and we can talk about our fourth quarter and updated full year outlook. Due to the incrementally more challenging end market backdrop, we are revising our full year sales guidance range while increasing the midpoint of our segment margin guidance. We are narrowing our adjusted EPS guidance to the high end of the prior range due to that margin outlook combined with favorable adjustment to our effective tax rate. While our pace of sales has not degraded, we have not seen the short cycle acceleration, which we anticipated by this point in the year, and it's appropriate to reflect that as well as the energy-related and aero output pushouts in our outlook.

接下來，讓我們轉向投影片 6，我們可以討論我們的第四季和更新後的全年展望。由於終端市場環境越來越具有挑戰性，我們正在修改全年銷售指引範圍，同時提高分部利潤率指引的中位數。由於利潤率前景以及對我們有效稅率的有利調整，我們將調整後的每股收益指引縮小到先前範圍的高端。雖然我們的銷售速度沒有下降，但我們還沒有看到我們在今年此時所預期的短週期加速，並且在我們的展望中反映這一點以及能源相關和航空輸出的推動是適當的。

Our demand profile remains healthy, with book-to-bill of 1.1 and record backlog, and we're confident in our ability to accelerate growth within our long-term framework in the coming quarters. We now expect full-year sales to be in the range of $38.6 billion to $38.8 billion, representing organic growth of 3% to 4%, down from 5% to 6% previously. The lower guide reflects the lower third quarter results a slower recovery in industrial automation and more tempered expectations in pockets of aerospace and energy markets in the fourth quarter. As a reminder, our guidance includes the impact of all four acquisitions: Access Solutions, Chivatanavi, Case and LNG now all closed. Collectively, they will add approximately $800 million in sales in 2024, consistent with prior communications.

我們的需求狀況保持健康，訂單出貨比為 1.1，積壓訂單創歷史新高，我們對未來幾季在長期框架內加速成長的能力充滿信心。我們目前預計全年銷售額將在 386 億美元至 388 億美元之間，有機成長 3% 至 4%，低於先前的 5% 至 6%。較低的指引反映出第三季的較低結果導致工業自動化復甦放緩，以及第四季度航空航太和能源市場的預期更加溫和。提醒一下，我們的指導意見包括所有四項收購的影響：Access Solutions、Chivatanavi、Case 和 LNG 現已全部完成。與先前的溝通一致，到 2024 年，他們的銷售額將總共增加約 8 億美元。

For the fourth quarter, we anticipate sales in the range of $10.2 billion to $10.4 billion, up 2% to 4% organically. Sales should increase sequentially across the portfolio, led by aerospace as we experience additional supply chain unlock as well as continued growth in flight hours and shipset deliveries. Turning to segment margins. Our strong result in the third quarter and our commercial excellence and productivity playbook are supporting our bottom line. As a result, we're narrowing our overall segment margin guidance towards the high end, now expecting to end the year between 23.4% and 23.5%, flat to 10 basis points from 2023.

我們預計第四季的銷售額將在 102 億美元至 104 億美元之間，有機成長 2% 至 4%。隨著我們經歷額外的供應鏈解鎖以及飛行時間和船舶交付量的持續增長，整個產品組合的銷售額應會連續增長，以航空航天為主導。轉向細分市場利潤。我們第三季的強勁業績以及我們的卓越商業和生產力策略支撐著我們的利潤。因此，我們將整體細分市場利潤率指引縮小至高端，目前預計年底將在 23.4% 至 23.5% 之間，自 2023 年起持平至 10 個基點。

That said, the dynamics we highlighted last quarter still hold. Delays in short-cycle improvement are leading our long-cycle project and original equipment business to a larger percentage of our mix, driving margin headwinds. In the long term, this provides us an expanded installed base to leverage for high-margin aftermarket projects. We now expect overall segment profit dollars to grow between 5% and 6% for the year. At a segment level, building automation and energy and sustainability solutions will lead the group and margin expansion.

也就是說，我們上季強調的動態仍然存在。短週期改善的延遲導致我們的長週期專案和原始設備業務在我們的組合中佔據更大的比例，從而推動利潤率的逆風。從長遠來看，這為我們提供了擴大的安裝基礎，以利用高利潤的售後市場項目。我們現在預計今年整體部門利潤將成長 5% 至 6%。在細分市場層面，樓宇自動化以及能源和永續發展解決方案將引領集團和利潤率的擴張。

For the fourth quarter, we anticipate overall segment margin in the range of 23.8% to 24.2% and up sequentially but down 20 to 60 basis points year over year as a result of mix within original equipment and aerospace and volume deleverage in industrial automation.

對於第四季度，我們預計整體細分市場利潤率將在23.8% 至24.2% 範圍內，環比上升，但同比下降20 至60 個基點，這是由於原始設備和航空航天領域的混合以及工業自動化領域的規模去槓桿化所致。

Now let's spend a moment on our outlook by business. Looking ahead for aerospace technologies, we still expect low double-digit growth in 2024 organic sales with double-digit growth in both commercial aviation and defense and space. In the fourth quarter, we expect sales growth of mid- to high single digits with particular strength in commercial aftermarket. As previously noted, segment margin in the third quarter outperformed our expectations on better-than-anticipated mix, but we still see modest year-over-year segment margin contraction as discrete supply chain disruptions from the third quarter are resolved, and we see a corresponding recovery in commercial original evident volumes.

現在讓我們花點時間談談我們對業務的展望。展望航空航太技術，我們仍預期 2024 年有機銷售額將出現兩位數的低成長，其中商業航空、國防和航太領域將出現兩位數成長。我們預計第四季的銷售額將實現中高個位數成長，其中商業售後市場尤其強勁。如前所述，第三季的分部利潤率超出了我們對好於預期的組合的預期，但由於第三季度的離散供應鏈中斷得到解決，我們仍然認為分部利潤率同比小幅收縮，並且我們看到商業原始明顯量的相應恢復。

Moving to industrial automation, we're lowering our 2024 outlook for year-over-year organic sales to decline in the high single-digit range as slower-than-expected short-cycle demand recovery alongside project pushouts and process solutions, dampened our outlook for full year organic growth. For the fourth quarter, we expect sales down low single digits with modest growth in projects and aftermarket services, offset primarily by softness in sensing and safety technologies and smart energy. Margins will be down overall this year for industrial automation, but up when excluding the impact of the license and settlement payments that ended in the first quarter.

轉向工業自動化，我們將 2024 年有機銷售額同比預期下調至個位數高位下降，因為短週期需求復甦速度慢於預期，加上專案推出和流程解決方案，削弱了我們的前景全年有機增長。對於第四季度，我們預計銷售額將下降低個位數，專案和售後服務將適度成長，但主要被感測和安全技術以及智慧能源的疲軟所抵消。今年工業自動化的利潤率總體將下降，但如果排除第一季結束的許可證和和解付款的影響，利潤率將上升。

In building automation, we still expect full year organic growth in the low single-digit range led by continued strength in Building Solutions and high-growth regions, particularly in India and Saudi Arabia. Fourth quarter sales will be up year-over-year and flat to up sequentially as we see volume improvement led by fire products.

在樓宇自動化方面，我們仍然預計全年有機成長將在低個位數範圍內，這主要得益於樓宇解決方案和高成長地區（特別是印度和沙烏地阿拉伯）的持續強勁。由於消防產品帶動銷售量改善，第四季銷售額將較去年同期成長，較上季持平。

Margins should hit their high point for the year in the fourth quarter as improvement in fire and the impact of excess solutions support positive mix. For energy and sustainability solutions, the organic growth outlook for the year is still low single digits with typical strong sequential improvement in the fourth quarter driven by catalyst shipment seasonality. We're still expecting full-year margin expansion with the fourth quarter at the highest margin rate due to favorable business mix associated with catalyst reloads. We will also see a lift from the first quarter of sales and our newly acquired LNG business.

由於火災情況的改善和過剩解決方案的影響支持積極的組合，第四季度的利潤率應達到全年最高點。對於能源和永續發展解決方案，今年的有機成長前景仍然較低個位數，在催化劑出貨季節性的推動下，第四季通常出現強勁的環比改善。由於與催化劑重新裝載相關的有利業務組合，我們仍預計全年利潤率將擴張，第四季度的利潤率將達到最高。我們還將看到第一季的銷售額和新收購的液化天然氣業務的成長。

Moving to other key guided metrics. Net below the line is now expected to be between negative $650 million and negative $700 million for the full year. For the fourth quarter, net below the line is expected to be between negative $250 million and negative $300 million. We now expect pension income to be approximately $600 million for 2024, up $50 million from our prior guide due to a onetime item that was pushed out from the fourth quarter into 2025. This guidance includes repositioning spend between $150 million and $190 million for the year and between $60 million and $100 million for the fourth quarter as we invest in high-return projects to support future growth and productivity. We expect the adjusted effective tax rate to be around 20% for the full year and 17% for the fourth quarter.

轉向其他關鍵指導指標。目前預計全年線下淨額將在負 6.5 億美元至負 7 億美元之間。第四季線下淨額預計將在負 2.5 億美元至負 3 億美元之間。我們現在預計2024 年退休金收入約為6 億美元，比我們之前的指南增加5,000 萬美元，因為一次性項目從第四季度推遲到2025 年。至1.9 億美元之間第四季我們將投資 6,000 萬至 1 億美元，投資高回報項目以支持未來的成長和生產力。我們預計調整後的全年有效稅率為20%左右，第四季為17%左右。

The reduction in expected tax rate is a result of favorable adjustments to income tax contingencies and taxable income mix. We anticipate average share count to be around 655 million shares for the full year and around 653 million shares for the fourth quarter and we maintain balance sheet capacity to deploy additional capital to achieve the highest shareholder returns. We now expect that the year-over-year impact to 2024 adjusted EPS from the four acquisitions closed this year will be approximately neutral, a bit better than we communicated last quarter. Slight delays to the closing of the case in LNG deals reduced some of the interest expense and planned integration costs in 2024. And as we get our arms around the business, we're refining our near-term expectations.

預期稅率的降低是對所得稅或有事項和應稅收入結構進行有利調整的結果。我們預計全年平均股數約 6.55 億股，第四季平均股數約為 6.53 億股，我們維持資產負債表能力，部署額外資本以實現最高股東回報。我們現在預計，今年完成的四項收購對 2024 年調整後每股盈餘的年比影響將大致為中性，比我們上季傳達的要好一些。液化天然氣交易結案的輕微延遲減少了部分利息支出和 2024 年計畫的整合成本。

We continue to expect 1% to 2% EPS accretion in 2025 from these deals. A summary of the 2024 M&A impact on our financials is included in the appendix of this presentation. As a result of all these inputs, we expect full-year adjusted earnings per share to be in the upper half of our prior range, now between $10.15 an to $10.25, up 7% to 8% year on year. We expect fourth quarter adjusted earnings per share between $2.73 and $2.83, up 1% to 5% year on year. On cash, we're reducing our guidance and now expect free cash flow in the range of $5.1 billion to $5.4 billion, down 4% to up 2% and excluding the impact of prior year settlements.

我們繼續預期 2025 年這些交易將使每股盈餘增加 1% 至 2%。本簡報的附錄中總結了 2024 年併購對我們財務狀況的影響。由於所有這些投入，我們預計全年調整後每股收益將位於我們先前區間的上半部分，目前介於 10.15 美元至 10.25 美元之間，年增 7% 至 8%。我們預期第四季調整後每股盈餘將在2.73美元至2.83美元之間，年增1%至5%。在現金方面，我們正在降低指導值，目前預計自由現金流在 51 億美元至 54 億美元之間，下降 4% 至成長 2%，且不包括上一年和解的影響。

Lower progress in inventory, mainly in aerospace and slowing payment cycles in certain high-growth regions, has impacted our performance and our expectations. We continue to work multiyear unwind of working capital, and we will fund high-return CapEx projects focused on creating uniquely innovative technologies for the company. Overall, while we remain cautious on the macroeconomic environment in the short term, our acquisitions are progressing in line with our expectations. Our backlog remains at record highs, and we are driving expansion of our installed base. Our rigorous operating principles give us confidence in our ability to execute on our long-term growth algorithm.

庫存進展緩慢（主要是航空航太領域）以及某些高成長地區付款週期放緩，影響了我們的表現和預期。我們將繼續致力於多年的營運資金縮減，並將資助專注於為公司創造獨特創新技術的高回報資本支出項目。整體而言，雖然我們對短期宏觀經濟環境保持謹慎態度，但我們的收購進展符合我們的預期。我們的積壓訂單仍處於歷史新高，我們正在推動安裝基礎的擴張。我們嚴格的營運原則使我們對執行長期成長演算法的能力充滿信心。

Now let me turn it back to Vimal on slide 7 for some closing thoughts.

現在讓我把它轉回幻燈片 7 上的 Vimal 來談談一些結束語。

Thank you, Greg. Why we experience some headwinds in the quarter, we are confident in our ability to weather the macroeconomic backdrop with operation rigour you expect from Honeywell. We delivered segment margins and adjusted earnings per share above our guidance range in 3Q. We have adjusted our outlook to reflect the realities as we now see them in this macro. We continue to make steady progress towards our portfolio optimization as we close out the year.

謝謝你，格雷格。為什麼我們在本季遇到一些阻力，我們有信心能夠以霍尼韋爾所期望的嚴格運作來應對宏觀經濟背景。我們第三季的分部利潤率和調整後每股收益高於我們的指導範圍。我們調整了我們的前景，以反映我們現在在這個宏觀中看到的現實。在年底之際，我們將繼續在投資組合優化方面取得穩步進展。

As we look ahead towards 2025, our robust backlog further benefit from accretive growth rates to come from our acquisition and our leading position in attractive end markets provide us with a constructive outlook despite the ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainty. While we think volume growth could remain subdued by muted short cycle growth early in the year, we expect to see organic growth across all 4 businesses next year.

展望2025 年，儘管經濟和地緣政治持續存在不確定性，但我們強勁的積壓訂單進一步受益於收購帶來的成長率，以及我們在有吸引力的終端市場中的領先地位，為我們提供了建設性的前景。雖然我們認為年初銷售成長可能會因短期週期成長緩慢而受到抑制，但我們預計明年所有 4 項業務都將有機成長。

We plan to return to margin expansion again in 2025 as a combination of volume leverage and productivity actions across the portfolio should offset modest mix headwind in Aerospace from OEM activity and integration of case. We look forward to providing more detailed guidance of 2025 during next quarter's earnings call as the backdrop becomes clearer and our portfolio shaping impact solidified. I remain excited about the future of Honeywell and believe our portfolio shaping efforts are enabling us to drive innovation and solve some of the world's most challenging problems.

我們計劃在 2025 年再次恢復利潤擴張，因為整個產品組合的銷售槓桿和生產力行動的結合應能抵消 OEM 活動和案例整合在航空航天領域帶來的適度混合阻力。隨著背景變得更加清晰並且我們的投資組合塑造影響力得到鞏固，我們期待在下一季的財報電話會議上提供更詳細的 2025 年指導。我對霍尼韋爾的未來仍然感到興奮，並相信我們的產品組合塑造努力使我們能夠推動創新並解決一些世界上最具挑戰性的問題。

With that, Sean, let's open up for questions.

肖恩，接下來讓我們開始提問。

Thank you, Vimal. Vimal and Greg are now available to answer your questions. (Event Instructions) Operator, please open the line for Q&A.

謝謝你，維馬爾。 Vimal 和 Greg 現在可以回答您的問題。 （活動說明）接線員，請開通問答線路。

(Operator Instructions) Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

（操作員指示）朱利安·米切爾，巴克萊銀行。

Maybe I just wanted to start off with a sense maybe flesh out a little bit more. Any thoughts around sort of next year. I realize we'll get more color in Q4 results. But in the past, you've often given sort of more detailed preliminary thoughts for the out year in October. So just wondered, for example, on the cost side of things.

也許我只是想從一種感覺開始，也許更充實一點。關於明年的任何想法。我意識到我們將在第四季的結果中獲得更多色彩。但在過去，你經常在十月給出對今年更詳細的初步想法。所以只是想知道，例如，成本方面的問題。

The top line is running light of expectations but you took down your repositioning expectations for the year. I wondered if there might be a case given the macro backdrop to sort of accelerate things like cost-cutting measures, maybe do more repositioning to make sure you can get margins up in 2025. So maybe flesh out some thoughts around the margin expansion from here.

頂線低於預期，但您降低了今年的重新定位預期。我想知道在宏觀背景下是否可能會加速實施成本削減措施等措施，也許會進行更多重新定位以確保在 2025 年能夠提高利潤率 因此，也許可以從這裡充實一些關於利潤率擴張的想法。

Thanks, Julian. Let me start and then hand over to Greg here. Look, I know my predecessors provided guidance on 2025. But given the current uncertainty in the environment across what we experienced the wars, the upcoming elections in the U.S. and multiple factor.

謝謝，朱利安。讓我開始，然後交給格雷格。看，我知道我的前任提供了 2025 年的指導。

We only found [thought] prudent that we do it in January when more facts are known. But there are a few comments I'll make. First, there are three important backdrops, which we all should consider for 2025. Number one, our backlog is up 6%, 10% with all the acquisitions. I do believe we have a better quality portfolio.

我們只是發現[認為]謹慎的做法是在一月份了解更多事實後才這樣做。但我要發表一些評論。首先，我們都應該在 2025 年考慮三個重要的背景。我確實相信我們擁有更好品質的產品組合。

And number three, our cost position is very robust. We have seen that in our margin expansion across all 4 segments. And that's driven by both productivity and our cost control actions. So those are carrying forward for 2025. What we're also executing is what's in our control, which is driving growth action through new products, but also continue to drive productivity actions to maintain the higher quality P&L.

第三，我們的成本狀況非常穩健。我們在所有 4 個細分市場的利潤率擴張中都看到了這一點。這是由生產力和我們的成本控制行動所推動的。因此，這些目標將延續到 2025 年。

Now with that backdrop, what as we mentioned in our comments is we do expect all four segments to have organic growth in 2025. Now the specific ranges, we'll share that in January when we have the earnings call. But at this point, we feel confident on that fact. We also feel that we also believe we will be back to margin expansion in 2025 based upon the actions we already have taken. So I would say the setup is positive. There are uncertainty. On the cost position, you're absolutely right; we are very watchful on that, and we have demonstrated that in Q3.

現在，在這種背景下，正如我們在評論中提到的那樣，我們確實預計所有四個細分市場將在 2025 年實現有機增長。但在這一點上，我們對這一事實充滿信心。我們也認為，基於我們已經採取的行動，我們將在 2025 年恢復利潤率擴張。所以我想說這個設定是正面的。存在不確定性。在成本方面，你是完全正確的；我們對此非常關注，並且我們在第三季度已經證明了這一點。

I'm going to pass on to Greg to explain some of the repositioning numbers, what we have reflected on and provide specific commentary on that.

我將請格雷格解釋一些重新定位的數字、我們所反映的內容並對此提供具體評論。

Yes. Yes. So Julian, the takedown in the repo guidance is really just the Q3 number being on the low end of the range. So if you look at our guidance for the fourth quarter of $60 million to $100 million, that's roughly the same as what we had implied. And so the takedown from [150 to 225] to now [150 to 190] is really just the third quarter being on the low end.

是的。是的。所以朱利安，回購指南中的刪除實際上只是第三季的數字處於範圍的低端。因此，如果你看看我們對第四季 6,000 萬至 1 億美元的指導，就會發現這與我們暗示的大致相同。因此，從 [150 到 225] 到現在的 [150 到 190] 實際上只是第三季的低端。

We have a very robust productivity and repositioning pipeline, that process, as you know we (inaudible) for years. And to Vimal's point, we're not sitting here in October, thinking the world is coming crashing down -- so it's not like we need to ramp up dramatically a major reduction in census to address that, in which case then maybe you would see a much bigger near-term repo change. But we're going to always be watchful. So I wouldn't read too much into the repo guidance coming down other than just having did in the low end we've given ourselves plenty of flexibility in the fourth quarter to take appropriate productivity actions, and we'll do so.

我們擁有非常強大的生產力和重新定位管道，正如您所知，我們（聽不清楚）多年來。就維馬爾的觀點而言，我們不會在十月坐在這裡，認為世界即將崩潰——所以我們不需要大幅減少人口普查來解決這個問題，在這種情況下，也許你會看到近期回購協議變化幅度更大。但我們將始終保持警惕。因此，我不會過度解讀即將出台的回購指引，除了在低端時期所做的之外，我們在第四季度給了自己足夠的靈活性來採取適當的生產力行動，我們會這樣做。

That's very helpful. And then just a very quick follow-up around as we're thinking about sort of portfolio movements and so forth, you announced Advanced Materials spin, you've got PPE and assets held for sale. Just wondered sort of to what extent, Vimal, the changes in the sort of organic backdrop on top line and what's happening with margins? Do they have an effect on increasing the urgency of portfolio measures or you think about them as sort of somewhat to independent tracks.

這非常有幫助。然後，當我們考慮某種投資組合變動等時，您宣布了先進材料業務，您已經持有待售的個人防護設備和資產，這是一個非常快速的後續行動。只是想知道維馬爾，營收的有機背景發生了多大程度的變化，以及利潤率發生了什麼變化？它們是否會增加投資組合措施的緊迫性，或者您認為它們有點獨立。

I would say the portfolio actions are driven by two factors. First is the fit in the Honeywell portfolio. building Honeywell into three simplified megatrends, which I committed exactly a year back. So see if you see our actions on both advanced materials and PPE, that reflects that commitment. I would say the PPE business, in particular, is going to help Honeywell accelerate organic growth and more margin expansion.

我想說投資組合的行動是由兩個因素驅動的。首先是與霍尼韋爾產品組合的契合度。將霍尼韋爾打造成三個簡化的大趨勢，我在一年前就承諾了這一點。因此，看看您是否看到我們在先進材料和個人防護裝備方面的行動，這反映了這一承諾。我想說，個人防護用品業務尤其將幫助霍尼韋爾加速有機成長和更多利潤擴張。

Advanced material business is more neutral on (inaudible) basis. Going ahead, the portfolio actions are never completed. I would say that we're going to constantly look at now, given we have completed this phase, what else we could add or subtract to improve the quality of portfolio of funny well. What I'm really proud of, Julian, is all the four acquisitions we have made, they are in the high-growth end verticals. They are in defense. They are in LNG. They are in access solution, which are high demand markets. and that certainly is improving the growth profile of Honeywell apart from the fact the actions we are taking on the core portfolio.

先進材料業務在（聽不清楚）的基礎上更加中性。展望未來，投資組合行動永遠不會完成。我想說，鑑於我們已經完成了這個階段，我們現在將不斷地關注我們還可以添加或減少哪些內容來提高搞笑作品集的品質。朱利安，我真正感到自豪的是我們進行的所有四次收購，它們都位於高成長的垂直領域。他們正在防守。他們在液化天然氣中。他們處於接取解決方案領域，這是高需求市場。除了我們對核心產品組合採取的行動之外，這無疑正在改善霍尼韋爾的成長狀況。

Steve Tusa, JPMorgan.

史蒂夫圖薩，摩根大通。

So sorry, I just missed the first part of the call. Can you just talk about any kind of trajectory on -- in the kind of '25 and some of the puts and takes? I know you guys had talked to being within the range on organic a few weeks ago, but also just whether the margins can be a kind of a trend line year? Any updated thoughts on kind of the '25 look?

很抱歉，我剛剛錯過了通話的第一部分。您能談談 25 年的任何軌跡以及一些變化嗎？我知道你們幾週前曾討論過有機食品的範圍內，但也只是利潤率是否可以成為一種趨勢線年份？對於 25 年的造型有什麼最新的想法嗎？

Sure, Steve, maybe I'll start. As we talked about even when we saw each other in Europe, we still expect all four businesses are going to grow next year, and we're going to be coming out of the year with while a lower exit rate than we had planned, it's still going to be a positive exit rate. And so when we think about the setup for next year, again, way too early for guidance, we'll do that in January.

當然，史蒂夫，也許我會開始。正如我們所說，即使我們在歐洲見面時，我們仍然預計所有四項業務明年都會增長，而且我們將以比我們計劃的要低的退出率結束這一年，這是仍將是正退出率。因此，當我們考慮明年的設置時，我們將在一月份進行，這對於指導來說還為時過早。

We do expect all four businesses to grow, and we expect margin expansion broadly across the portfolio, with aero probably being the one that's going to remain, I would say, around its current level organically with -- that's the one area where it will get headline pressure from the acquisitions, though all those acquisitions and particularly in the arrows, instance, they're going to be very strong growth rates. So very healthy segment profit growth overall.

我們確實預計所有四項業務都會成長，並且我們預計整個投資組合的利潤率都會大幅擴張，我想說，航空業務可能會保持在目前的水平附近，這是它將獲得的一個領域收購帶來的整體壓力，儘管所有這些收購，特別是箭頭中的收購，它們都將實現非常強勁的成長率。因此，整體而言，該部門的利潤成長非常健康。

Okay. Great. And then just on the cash flow cut, is that just an earnings cut? Or is there something else going on in working capital like that?

好的。偉大的。那麼就現金流的削減而言，這只是獲利的削減嗎？或者營運資金中還有其他類似的情況嗎？

Yes. The two big items there is, as you know, the biggest pile of inventory we have is in aerospace, and that's been the hardest nut for us to crack so far. And particularly given all the dynamics that you're seeing in the industry over even the last 90 days, we just don't see the ramp down that we have been trying to drive there specifically. We've made nice progress in both IA and BA on inventory reduction, but not in Aero. And then the other part of that, I would just say is in our high-growth regions, we're seeing payment cycle slow.

是的。如您所知，其中的兩大項目是我們擁有的最大庫存是在航空航太領域，這是迄今為止我們最難解決的難題。特別是考慮到您在過去 90 天內看到的行業動態，我們只是沒有看到我們一直在努力推動的具體下降趨勢。我們在 IA 和 BA 方面都在減少庫存方面取得了不錯的進展，但在 Aero 方面卻沒有取得進展。我只想說，另一部分是在我們的高成長地區，我們看到支付週期緩慢。

And I think, again, that's a little bit of reaction to oil prices and a little bit of the disruption happening around the Middle East. And so those two things are really what we're reflecting in the guide on cash. We do expect, again, as we go into next year, we're going to still work an acceleration on working capital reduction effort and hopefully, the environment will participate in a way that's going to be more conducive to that. We're going to continue to do our work as we've done on the digitization of our working capital, particularly inventory and planning side to try to unlock that balance.

我再次認為，這是對油價的一點反應以及中東地區發生的一點混亂。因此，這兩件事確實是我們在現金指南中所反映的內容。我們確實再次預計，當我們進入明年時，我們仍將加速減少營運資本的努力，並希望環境將以更有利於這一點的方式參與其中。我們將繼續像我們在營運資本數位化方面所做的那樣，特別是在庫存和規劃方面，努力釋放這種平衡。

Nigel Coe, Wolfe Research.

奈傑爾·科，沃爾夫研究中心。

Just on the aero performance. Maybe just touch on the Boeing strike and how you dial that into your sort of 4Q outlook. And then within the performance in commercial aftermarket, the plus 8%, can you dissect that between ATR and BizJet, I'm assuming BizJets going to be a bit more challenged there. Any help there would be helpful.

只是在空氣動力性能上。也許只需談談波音罷工以及您如何將其納入您的第四季度展望中。然後在商業售後市場的表現中，+8%，你能剖析一下 ATR 和 BizJet 之間的關係嗎？任何幫助都會有幫助。

Yes. Let me start here, and I'll pass on to Greg. I would say the Boeing circumstances are obviously very challenging. We all saw the results of the strike or yesterday night, which is unfortunate. I would say from a annual perspective, we have been working very closely with Boeing to make sure that we have a coordinated way of dealing with our shipments with the Boeing.

是的。讓我從這裡開始，然後我將轉給格雷格。我想說，波音的情況顯然非常具有挑戰性。我們都看到了昨天晚上罷工的結果，這是不幸的。我想說，從年度角度來看，我們一直與波音公司密切合作，以確保我們能夠以協調的方式處理與波音公司的貨運。

The net punchline of that is, thankfully, there is no impact of that into our revenue in Q4. We are adjusting some shipments into aftermarket of Boeing's customers and so on. And we really have to already start thinking about 2025 based upon how things are shaping up. But for Q4, there's no specific impact into our numbers. Maybe, Greg, do you want to answer the second part.

值得慶幸的是，這對我們第四季的收入沒有影響。我們正在調整一些發貨到波音客戶的售後市場等。我們確實必須根據事情的發展開始思考 2025 年。但對於第四季度，我們的數字沒有具體影響。格雷格，也許你想回答第二部分。

Yes. So on the commercial aftermarket side, as you saw us report high single-digit growth overall. And as your side sensors are telling you it's double digits in APR and it's single digits in BGA. And again, I don't think that should be a surprise to anyone as the international market continues to expand on flight hours as it has throughout the course of the year. We're still outgrowing in DGA, the flight hours growth given all of the nice work the team has done on their RMU portfolio. So that continues to be a positive for us in terms of trying to do the decoupled growth approach that we've been so successful at over the years.

是的。因此，在商業售後市場方面，正如您所看到的，我們報告整體呈現高個位數成長。正如您的側面感測器告訴您的那樣，APR 為兩位數，BGA 為個位數。再說一次，我認為這對任何人來說都不應該感到驚訝，因為國際市場的飛行時間在全年中都在持續擴大。鑑於團隊在 RMU 產品組合上所做的所有出色工作，我們在 DGA 方面的成長仍然不夠，飛行時間的成長也不夠。因此，這對於我們嘗試實行多年來一直非常成功的脫鉤增長方法仍然是積極的。

Great. That's helpful. And just a quick one on the portfolio. the PPE, no surprise there, but mixed size -- the revs and margin for PV this year. And then I guess the only other thing on the agenda right now is Quantinium. Are we still hoping to monetize that next year?

偉大的。這很有幫助。簡單介紹一下作品集。 PPE，這並不奇怪，但混合大小——今年光伏的轉速和利潤。然後我想現在議程上唯一的其他事情就是 Quantinium。我們是否仍希望明年能夠將其貨幣化？

Yes. So the PPE revs are about $1.1 billion. We're not going to get into the margin profile, you can probably get close with some of the information you learned over time. And then --

是的。因此 PPE 的收益約為 11 億美元。我們不會討論保證金概況，您可能會隨著時間的推移了解一些您學到的資訊。進而 -

Yes. Nigel, as we have said, we absolutely want to monetize Honeywell investment at the right time. The key focus area for us is continue to make progress on the technical milestone because that will feed into a commercial customer acquisition, which will feed into IPO in that order. And we are making nice progress on the technical front. Earlier in the year, we worked with Microsoft to prove the are rates in quantum computing, which is a big milestone, and we did prove one of the highest fidelity computing platform.

是的。奈傑爾，正如我們所說，我們絕對希望在正確的時間將霍尼韋爾的投資貨幣化。我們的重點關注領域是繼續在技術里程碑上取得進展，因為這將有助於商業客戶的收購，而商業客戶的收購將按順序促進 IPO。我們在技術方面正在取得良好進展。今年早些時候，我們與微軟合作證明了量子運算的速率，這是一個重要的里程碑，我們確實證明了最高保真度的運算平台之一。

They also made some announcement on the capability relative to logical cubics in Q3. So we are making progress on expected lines on the technical front, which is very, very positive factor to know. That will now feed into the next step to acquire customers. the strategy of monetizing quantinuum hasn't changed. The timing will be dependent upon as we make progress in the actions we have highlighted earlier.

他們也在第三季發布了一些與邏輯立方相關的功能的公告。因此，我們在技術方面正在按預期取得進展，這是非常非常積極的因素。現在，這將進入下一步獲取客戶的過程。量子貨幣化的策略沒有改變。具體時間將取決於我們在先前強調的行動中所取得的進展。

Scott Davis, Melius Research.

斯科特·戴維斯，Melius 研究公司。

Welcome Mike to the call. Guys, you made this announcement with Forge and Gemini AI. I mean what's the deliverable here? I can conceptually see what you're doing, but what do you kind of envision as the out the other side, the real kind of killer app for customers.

歡迎麥克致電。夥計們，你們與 Forge 和 Gemini AI 一起宣布了這一消息。我的意思是這裡的可交付成果是什麼？我可以從概念上看到你在做什麼，但你認為另一面是什麼，對客戶來說是真正的殺手級應用程式。

I can give you two minutes version, while I also have a two-hour version of this. The short answer is that as we are connecting more and more of our customer assets into our Forge platform for the last, I would say, about two to three years. The obvious next question for us is what are we going to do with that data as we keep expanding our customer base through. So we're looking ahead and looking to look at the AI model, the Vertex AI capability, which Google has provide us some unique capabilities which will create a new applications on top of that data. So it's consistent with the strategy Scott I have always highlighted, monetized installed base.

我可以給你兩分鐘的版本，同時我也有一個兩小時的版本。簡而言之，隨著我們在過去大約兩到三年內將越來越多的客戶資產連接到我們的 Forge 平台。對我們來說，顯而易見的下一個問題是，隨著我們不斷擴大客戶群，我們將如何處理這些數據。因此，我們正在展望未來，著眼於人工智慧模型、Vertex AI 功能，谷歌為我們提供了一些獨特的功能，這些功能將在這些數據之上創建新的應用程式。因此，這與史考特我一直強調的策略是一致的，也就是貨幣化安裝基礎。

So monetize installed base by connecting the installed base and then having more capability through partnerships like this. At the same time, we do expect some of our edge devices our products, which connected with the building or the process unit or with the warehouse, things like scanner, think of gas detection devices, embed AI at the chip level and have the Google Nano AI program embedded into that. It makes those products more capable. We expect to launch first half one of them in early 2025. So this is not a long-term dream.

因此，透過連接現有客戶群，然後透過這樣的合作夥伴關係獲得更多功能，從而實現現有客戶群的貨幣化。同時，我們確實期望我們的一些邊緣設備我們的產品，這些設備與建築物或處理單元或倉庫連接，例如掃描儀，考慮氣體檢測設備，在芯片級嵌入人工智能並擁有谷歌奈米人工智能程序嵌入其中。它使這些產品功能更加強大。我們預計將在 2025 年初推出其中的上半年產品。

This is imminently happening shortly. So all in all, this is continue to build upon our commitment of organic growth focus through new innovation, and we are partnering with companies like Google to expand our horizons here. And I'm very excited about it. I do expect this is going to help us support our organic growth profile in the years ahead.

這很快就會發生。總而言之，這將繼續建立在我們透過新創新關注有機成長的承諾之上，我們正​​在與Google等公司合作，以擴大我們的視野。我對此感到非常興奮。我確實希望這將幫助我們支持未來幾年的有機成長。

That makes sense. And just Intelligrated, obviously, has been the kind of the gift that keeps on giving. It was great for a while, and then it's been not so great here for a few years. But how do you fix that business? It doesn't seem to be as much value at the customer level, perhaps as we all once thought?

這是有道理的。顯然，Intelligated 就是那種不斷給予的禮物。有一段時間它很棒，但接下來的幾年裡它就不再那麼好了。但你要如何解決這個問題呢？它在客戶層面似乎沒有那麼大的價值，也許正如我們所有人曾經想像的那樣？

And is it a product innovation issue them? Is it just that the market itself is just too cyclical or perhaps too concentrated with a couple of big customers and maybe they have too much power in the channel. But how do you fix this thing I'll just leave it at that.

這是產品創新問題嗎？是否只是市場本身週期性太強，或者可能過於集中於幾個大客戶，也許他們在通路中擁有太多權力。但如何解決這個問題我就先到此為止吧。

Yes, I understand the frustration around Intelligrated, and so are we given the performance. Look, the good news is we saw slight sequential growth in that business in Q3, and we expect that trend to continue in Q4. Speaking differently, the business is definitely at its spot on with a slight turnaround. As I look ahead, I do see business are becoming very concentrated actually on aftermarket. 2025, our aftermarket, maybe actually 60% of the revenue.

是的，我理解 Intelligerated 帶來的挫敗感，因此我們也獲得了這樣的性能。看，好消息是我們在第三季度看到該業務略有連續增長，我們預計這種趨勢將在第四季度繼續下去。換句話說，該業務肯定處於正軌，並出現了輕微的改善。展望未來，我確實看到業務實際上變得非常集中在售後市場。 2025年，我們的售後市場，實際上可能佔收入的60%。

It used to be 30% when we acquired it, so it's almost become double. We have rebaseline our cost base, Scott, to nearly $1 billion run rate revenue, which we have today. I think the real constraint here is customer adoption rates. We have talked before, the value proposition is extremely compelling. However, the capital investment required for fixed sortation system is high.

原來我們收購的時候是30%，現在幾乎翻倍了。史考特，我們已經將我們的成本基礎重新調整為接近 10 億美元的運行率收入，也就是我們今天的收入。我認為真正的限制是客戶採用率。我們之前已經談過，價值主張非常引人注目。然而，固定分類系統所需的資金投入較高。

And making that commitment on a long-term basis, you can't decide to automate one warehouse. You have to basically commit to all of them. And that commitment, therefore, tends to be several hundred million or sometimes even in $1 billion. And that really have observed in my two-year watch of this business as a constraint. So I would say we'll continue to run this business as efficiently as we can. The 2025, the business has baseline to a point. It won't be a drag to the Honeywell's numbers anymore. And we will continue to put our actions in place to make it a better business in the years ahead.

為了做出長期的承諾，您不能決定對一個倉庫進行自動化。你必須基本上承諾所有這些。因此，這項承諾往往是數億美元，有時甚至是 10 億美元。在我對這項業務的兩年觀察中，這確實是一個限制。所以我想說，我們將繼續盡可能有效率地經營這項業務。到2025年，業務已經達到一個基準點。這將不再拖累霍尼韋爾的業績。我們將繼續採取行動，使其在未來幾年變得更好。

Chris Snyder, Morgan Stanley.

克里斯‧史奈德，摩根士丹利。

I wanted to ask on the ARO organic growth into Q4, slowing to mid- to high singles. And I think you said earlier that there's no impact from the Boeing strike in that. So I guess, is there any spillover impact from the fire at the facility you saw in Q3? Or does this kind of where you see aero market growing here in Q4.

我想詢問第四季度 ARO 的有機成長，放緩至中高單打。我想你之前說過波音公司的罷工對此沒有影響。所以我想，您在第三季看到的設施火災是否會產生溢出影響？或者你看到航空市場在第四季出現成長。

Look, Chris, aero has been -- it's nine quarters, we have been growing double digits. So one is the elevated level of comps that certainly makes it challenging. But two important facts here to share. In Q3, we had two discrete events, which are transitional in nature. We unfortunately had a fire in one of our plants.

看，克里斯，空氣動力學一直是——九個季度以來，我們一直在以兩位數的速度成長。因此，其中之一就是比賽水準的提高，這無疑使其具有挑戰性。但這裡有兩個重要的事實可以分享。在第三季度，我們發生了兩個離散事件，它們本質上是過渡性的。不幸的是，我們的一處工廠發生了火災。

The plant is back up and running, so we lost that revenue. And we also saw last week impact of a Helene because we do have large aero facility in Florida, and we could not ship for last couple of days of the quarter. Moving ahead in Q4, our acceleration is good. I mean, if you see in Q3, our volume growth is 13%. Now it used to be in high teens, it has come to the low teens.

該工廠已恢復正常運行，因此我們失去了收入。上週我們也看到了海倫號的影響，​​因為我們在佛羅裡達州確實有大型航空設施，但在本季度的最後幾天我們無法發貨。展望第四季度，我們的加速勢頭良好。我的意思是，如果你看到第三季度，我們的銷量成長了 13%。現在以前是十幾歲，現在已經到了十幾歲。

And that's where the volume extension through supply base with elevated levels is really the problem we are revolving for. By no dimension, our outlook has changed. Our outlook for aero for the year is still low double digit, what it was earlier, too, so it's not really changed. We have possibly missed an upside opportunity there. That's how we'll put it.

這就是我們正在解決的問題，即透過提高供應基礎來擴大產量。我們的觀點在任何方面都改變了。我們對今年空氣動力的展望仍然是低兩位數，與之前的情況一樣，所以它並沒有真正改變。我們可能錯過了那裡的上行機會。我們就是這樣說的。

There was a case here, we would have beaten that low double digit to a better number, but some of the supply chain pushouts have really made it more of a [not] 2025 event. (inaudible) our past dues are now continues to be greater than $2 billion. They have grown further, not a good news from a customer perspective. But at the same time, we're carrying forward that backlog next year, which will help us to have very similar profile of growth in 2025 as we are experiencing in Q4 this year. So remain very positive and optimistic.

這裡有一個案例，我們本來可以把這個低兩位數的數字擊敗到一個更好的數字，但一些供應鏈的推出確實使它更像是一個 [而不是] 2025 年的事件。 （聽不清楚）我們過去的會費現在仍然超過 20 億美元。它們進一步成長，從客戶的角度來看，這不是一個好消息。但同時，我們將在明年結轉積壓訂單，這將有助於我們在 2025 年實現與今年第四季非常相似的成長狀況。因此，保持非常積極和樂觀的態度。

I'm also very excited about the case acquisition, which is going to further expand the profile. It's a meaningful business size, $750 million we do expect a high growth rate in defense segment, which is also going to help and shape 2025 number for aero on the top-line growth.

我對案例收購也感到非常興奮，這將進一步擴大我們的形象。這是一個有意義的業務規模，7.5 億美元，我們確實預期國防領域將出現高成長率，這也將有助於並塑造 2025 年航空業的營收成長數字。

I appreciate that. And then maybe kind of turning over to industrial automation. It's been a couple of years now of pretty steady, meaningful declines. And I understand that a lot of these end markets are challenged, whether it's warehouse or scanners or even safety and sensing. But when you look Honeywell's performance in industrial automation compared to the end markets you serve, do you feel like the company is holding share? Or do you think that the company might be losing share or even maybe even gaining share across these end markets?

我很欣賞這一點。然後可能會轉向工業自動化。幾年來一直是相當穩定、有意義的下降。據我所知，許多終端市場都面臨挑戰，無論是倉庫還是掃描儀，甚至是安全和感測。但是，當您將霍尼韋爾在工業自動化領域的表現與您所服務的終端市場進行比較時，您是否感覺到該公司正在持有份額？或者您認為該公司可能會失去這些終端市場的份額，甚至可能會增加份額？

Yes, Chris, we serve multiple end markets there. So I can't give you a very brief and short answer on that. I would say, on the whole, the market drivers are the contributing factors on the performance of the Industrial Automation business. I mean there'll be always exceptions there, but that really drives it. Also bear in mind that this business is extremely global.

是的，克里斯，我們為那裡的多個終端市場提供服務。所以我無法就此給你一個非常簡短的答案。我想說，整體而言，市場驅動因素是工業自動化業務表現的影響因素。我的意思是總會有例外，但這確實推動了它。另請記住，這項業務非常全球化。

And we look at the end market or the lens of US, which we offset here and that's what we observe. But this business has a strong presence in Germany. This business has a strong presence in China And we cannot ignore some of the economic dynamics going in those parts of the world. And when you have material revenue there, it's certainly having its own impact. So I would say that the one liner for that is we are just shaping up with the market.

我們著眼於美國的終端市場或鏡頭，我們在這裡抵消了這一點，這就是我們所觀察到的。但該業務在德國擁有強大的影響力。這項業務在中國擁有強大的影響力，我們不能忽視世界這些地區的一些經濟動態。當你在那裡獲得物質收入時，它肯定會產生自己的影響。所以我想說的是，我們正在適應市場。

Looking ahead, I would say, 2025, there are two headwinds we have or '24 are behind us, which makes me believe very, very strongly that Industrial Automation will grow in 2025. The first headwind will be gone is the rebase signing of Intelligrated volumes, business volume -- we had mentioned in one of the earlier calls, it will be around $1 billion. That's where it is shaping up. So we don't have that headwind. We do believe we can sustain that volume looking ahead in 2025.

展望未來，我想說，2025 年，我們有兩個逆風，或者說24 世紀已經過去，這讓我非常非常堅信工業自動化將在2025 年實現增長。 rebase 簽署。這就是它正在形成的地方。所以我們沒有那種逆風。我們確實相信，展望 2025 年，我們能夠維持這一銷量。

And we had three-fourths of the royalty from Zebra in our numbers in 2024, which won't appear in 2025. So from a comp perspective, it let me correct that. We have only one quarter of this year. So from a comp perspective, it's a small number. So in 2025, we don't have to deal with that too. So those going away and markets normalizing to a certain degree, even they remain constant, we are still going to grow at a very normalized market today, we do expect a positive performance in that business in 2025.

2024 年，我們的數字中有四分之三來自 Zebra 的特許權使用費，而 2025 年不會出現這種情況。今年我們只有四分之一的時間。因此，從比較的角度來看，這是一個很小的數字。所以到 2025 年，我們也不必處理這個問題。因此，那些消失和市場在一定程度上正常化，即使它們保持不變，我們今天仍將在一個非常正常化的市場中成長，我們確實預計該業務將在 2025 年取得積極的表現。

Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies.

希拉·卡哈奧格魯，杰弗里斯。

Going back to your Aerospace. And Greg, can you tell us what the rate was in Q3? How you think about it in Q4 and deceleration Q3 to Q4. Is that -- that's not a change in the MAX? Is it just the supplier that just popped up?

回到你的航空航天。格雷格（Greg），您能告訴我們第三季的匯率是多少嗎？ Q4 和 Q3 到 Q4 的減速你是怎麼想的。這不是 MAX 的改變嗎？難道只是剛出現的供應商嗎？

Sorry, Sheila. I think you [booked up] for a second. Would you mind restating the question?

對不起，希拉。我想你已經[預訂了]一秒鐘。您介意重述一下這個問題嗎？

Sorry about that. So just on the MAX, can you give us an idea where you are on MAX in Q3 versus Q4? And if it is unchanged, what results in the Q3 to Q4 margin deceleration of about 250 bps going to around 25%.

對此感到抱歉。那麼就 MAX 而言，您能否告訴我們您在 MAX 方面在第三季與第四季的情況如何？如果保持不變，將導致第三季至第四季的利潤率減速約 250 個基點，降至 25% 左右。

Yes. I will answer the second portion. The margins, Q3 to Q4 is just the drivers of the OE shipments. So some of the discrete manufacturing disruption in what we had in Q3 ended up having directly lower OE volume, which helped us in terms of the mix and that drove the margin in Q3. So as those supply chain disruptions are getting released in Q4, those shipments are going to occur, which again pushes the margins to a different trajectory. So I think that's a fundamental shift there.

是的。我來回答第二部分。第三季到第四季的利潤率只是原廠出貨量的驅動因素。因此，我們在第三季遇到的一些離散製造中斷最終導致了原配設備數量的直接下降，這對我們的產品組合有所幫助，並推動了第三季的利潤率。因此，隨著供應鏈中斷在第四季度得到緩解，這些出貨量將會發生，這再次將利潤率推向不同的軌道。所以我認為這是一個根本性的轉變。

I think our comments on the Boeing situation is just that their demand on us has not gone down demonstrably from what it had been previously. There doesn't mean there's not some disruption in our ability to ship in Q3 versus Q4. we definitely had that challenge, but the demand on us has not changed meaningfully from Boeing.

我認為我們對波音情況的評論只是他們對我們的要求並沒有比以前明顯下降。這並不意味著我們在第三季的出貨能力與第四季相比沒有受到一些幹擾。我們確實面臨這樣的挑戰，但波音對我們的需求並沒有有意義的改變。

The last point I would add is just to say that 3Q is better than we would have thought on the margin given that mix -- and then there's some reversion in fourth quarter. So overall, the full year is really unchanged when we communicated previously. It's just what goes in which quarter.

我要補充的最後一點是，考慮到這種組合，第三季的利潤率比我們想像的要好——然後第四季會出現一些逆轉。所以整體來說，我們之前溝通的時候，全年確實沒有變化。這只是哪個季度發生的事情。

Got it. And then hopefully, you could hear me on the commercial aftermarket in Q3, it lagged at 8%. Maybe we just modeled it wrong. But it seems like it was mostly BGA. So when you think about aftermarket being the growth leader in Q4, is that in double digit in ATR, any color there? Or is it BGI picking up again?

知道了。希望你能聽到我對第三季商業售後市場的看法，它落後於 8%。也許我們只是建模錯誤。但看起來大部分都是BGA。那麼，當您認為售後市場是第四季度的成長領導者時，ATR 是否達到兩位數，有什麼顏色嗎？還是華大基因再次復甦？

In aftermarket. Yes. The aftermarket will be stronger in ATR than BGA. That's going to continue to be that way for some period of time.

在售後市場。是的。 ATR的售後市場會比BGA更強。這種情況將持續一段時間。

Deane Dray, RBC Capital Markets.

迪恩德雷 (Deane Dray)，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

I think it was just about a year ago that you did the resegmentation. And one of the outcomes was you identified that there was roughly 10% of revenues that would be divested, maybe half of them chunky, others kind of very small below the radar screen. So does PPE -- would that be part of it? And I would trust advanced materials is not part of that 10%. So just what's that pipeline look like?

我認為您大約一年前才進行了重新細分。結果之一是你發現大約有 10% 的收入將被剝離，其中可能有一半是大塊的，其他的則非常小，在雷達螢幕以下。那麼個人防護裝備（PPE）也會成為其中的一部分嗎？我相信先進材料不屬於那 10%。那麼這條管道是什麼樣子的呢？

Yes. So Dean, when I announced it last year this time, it was an initial view of the portfolio, which had less fit relative to the three megatrends. They were portions of advanced materials, which were part of it. But when we did the work, the shareholder value much higher for the whole spin versus the smaller part, which make us this decision of announcing the spin a few weeks back. So that was definitely part of the parameter and a smaller scope but ended up being big.

是的。所以迪安，當我去年這次宣布這一消息時，這是對投資組合的初步看法，相對於三大趨勢來說不太合適。它們是先進材料的一部分，也是其中的一部分。但當我們完成這項工作時，股東對整個分拆的估值比小部分要高得多，這使我們決定在幾週前宣布分拆。所以這絕對是參數的一部分，範圍較小，但最終卻很大。

PPE was part of that scope. So I would say on a broader strategy basis, we are directionally done for the near term, but portfolio work is never complete. We are constantly want to look at what else is a (inaudible) Honeywell now, even though everything fits into either future of aviation, energy transition or automation. Another question I'm asking is relative to the growth rates and margin expansion runway and vertical fit and things of that nature and will constantly make our portfolio active portfolio management as part of our operating system. We have a lot of balance sheet capacity. So we certainly want to use that and embrace that to the benefit of building a better business. So those are some of the comments I will offer you.

個人防護裝備（PPE）屬於該範圍的一部分。因此，我想說，在更廣泛的策略基礎上，我們短期內已經完成了定向工作，但投資組合工作永遠不會完成。我們一直想看看現在還有什麼是（聽不清楚）霍尼韋爾，儘管一切都適合航空、能源轉型或自動化的未來。我問的另一個問題是相對於成長率、利潤擴張跑道和垂直配合以及類似性質的事情，並將不斷使我們的投資組合積極的投資組合管理作為我們操作系統的一部分。我們有大量的資產負債表容量。因此，我們當然希望利用它並擁抱它，以建立更好的業務。這些是我將為您提供的一些評論。

What would be the time frame for other divestitures?

其他資產剝離的時間表是怎樣的？

I wouldn't say I won't put a specific time line here. I would say that we want to be a prudent utilization of our balance sheet capability and the events will be more determined by the opportunity set of acquisitions. And similarly, the fit is less. We need to get convicted. We have to do that work and then really start working on some of the possible portfolio actions there. So there's nothing new definitive which we are working on, but you'll never say never because this is a constant activity.

我不會說我不會在這裡列出具體的時間表。我想說的是，我們希望謹慎利用我們的資產負債表能力，事件將更多地取決於收購的機會集。同樣，擬合度也較低。我們需要被定罪。我們必須完成這項工作，然後真正開始研究一些可能的投資組合行動。因此，我們正在研究沒有什麼新的明確內容，但你永遠不會說永遠不會，因為這是一項持續的活動。

Joe Ritchie, Goldman Sachs.

喬·里奇，高盛。

I may have missed it, but can you please elaborate on the project delays that you're experiencing in both process solutions and -- so what are the root causes? And then how do you see that rectifying going forward?

我可能錯過了，但是您能否詳細說明一下您在兩個流程解決方案中遇到的專案延遲——那麼根本原因是什麼？那麼您如何看待未來的修正？

So Joe, I would say the conversion rates typically we see we end up doing approximately 50% of our revenue in month three of every quarter. And we have a well-proven run rate of conversion of smaller projects, both in process solutions and smaller catalyst shipments. And that's what really didn't occur on the normal run rate in Q3. So that's what we observed for the first time that push outs are happening at this point of time. At the same time, I will also give you another data point, UOP had a historic high in its history order booking in the same quarter, $1 billion.

所以喬，我想說的是，我們通常看到的轉換率最終在每個季度的第三個月完成了大約 50% 的收入。我們在製程解決方案和較小的催化劑出貨方面都擁有經過充分驗證的小型專案轉化率。而這在第三季的正常運作率上確實沒有發生。這就是我們第一次觀察到此時發生了推出。同時，我還要提供大家另一個數據，UOP同季的歷史訂單預訂量創歷史新高，達到10億美元。

which are large new projects, people are committed investments for new process technology on new equipment. So those are the dynamics going on. The long-cycle commitment continue to hold. The short cycle pushouts are also occurring at the same time, and we have factored that into our Q4 earnings forecast now that we expect that some of those project pushouts will continue to occur (inaudible) stability. And probably the root cause of that would ascertain that to two factors.

這些都是大型新項目，人們致力於投資新設備上的新製程技術。這些就是正在發生的動態。長週期承諾繼續有效。短週期推出也同時發生，我們已將其納入我們的第四季度收益預測中，因為我們預計其中一些項目推出將繼續保持穩定（聽不清楚）。其根本原因可能有兩個因素。

I would say there's a lot of uncertainty in Middle East due to war situation and oil price fluctuations. We all observe there and we all are equally awaiting on outcome of US elections. So I think that uncertainty causes making any moderate investment also a bit of a consideration for our customers. And that's driving the push out. And we do expect as things settle, some of these should come back to the normal case ahead.

我想說，由於戰爭局勢和油價波動，中東存在著許多不確定性。我們都在那裡觀察，我們都同樣等待美國大選的結果。因此，我認為不確定性導致任何適度的投資也成為我們客戶的考慮因素。這就是推動退出的原因。我們確實預計，隨著事情的解決，其中一些應該會回到正常情況。

Got it. That's helpful. So mostly, this is basically exogenous factors, not anything internal that's impacting. Okay. And then I guess maybe Yes. And then the second question is just, look, the defense business has been I think double digits now for 4 out of the last 5 quarters and recognize that you're benefiting from the fact that supply chain is normalizing. I guess, how do we think about that into 2025? Is this a business just based on the normalization of the supply chain, it should continue to see this level of growth, call it, high single digits to double-digit type growth into next year?

知道了。這很有幫助。所以大多數情況下，這基本上是外生因素，而不是任何內在影響。好的。然後我想也許是的。第二個問題是，我認為國防業務在過去 5 個季度中已有 4 個季度保持兩位數成長，並且認識到您正在從供應鏈正常化的事實中受益。我想，到 2025 年我們會如何看待這個問題？這是一個僅基於供應鏈正常化的業務嗎？

I do believe that. I think our order books there are strong in defense, and in fact, demand remains very strong. We have demonstrated now for two quarters in a row, our ability to take supply chain actions, specifically to the defense supply chain and we do expect to maintain this momentum in 2025. It will remain the headline for aerospace growth, specifically not only the core business and even always own but with the acquisition of [Kate], which is the entirely service defense segment. Our near-term mix of defense is going to go up and growth rates are going to be at I would say, relatively elevated rate compared to the core aerospace business.

我確實相信這一點。我認為我們的訂單處於防禦狀態，事實上，需求仍然非常強勁。我們已經連續兩個季度展示了我們採取供應鏈行動的能力，特別是國防供應鏈，我們確實希望在2025 年保持這一勢頭。領域業務，甚至一直擁有，但透過收購[凱特]，這是一個完全服務的國防領域。我們的近期國防組合將會上升，我想說，與核心航太業務相比，成長率將相對較高。

Andy Kaplowitz, Citigroup.

安迪‧卡普洛維茨，花旗集團。

Vim, I know you've talked about accelerating new products now and evolving the accelerated operating system. How much could that accelerating or maybe the focus on what good looks like across your portfolio help in '25 versus '24? Would you anticipate a material step-up in core growth from your initiatives, even if markets maybe stay a little muted, more muted than expected outside of aero?

Vim，我知道您現在談到了加速新產品和發展加速作業系統。在 25 世紀與 24 世紀，這種加速或對你的投資組合中的美好事物的關注有多大幫助？您是否預期您的舉措會帶來核心成長的實質提升，即使市場可能會保持一點平靜，比航空領域以外的預期更加平靜？

Yes. I think short answer is yes, Andy. We have done work, and we really track what I call new product category. So fundamentally, what we have bought our operating system is Think about the product as core products, which we always have and refreshing them because we have to keep share, you can't keep them stale and then adding new product categories, which we don't have today, those SKU numbers don't exist in our ERP system. And those products which are being lodged in '24 or early '25 are going to be a larger number compared to what we had in '24 run rate. So that does give me a confidence that that's going to act as an enabler for us to deliver our growth in 2025. specifics will share when we do the earnings call. But fundamentals do look attractive on that space.

是的。我想簡短的回答是肯定的，安迪。我們已經完成了工作，並且真正追蹤了我所說的新產品類別。所以從根本上來說，我們購買的作業系統是將產品視為核心產品，我們一直擁有這些產品並更新它們，因為我們必須保持份額，你不能讓它們陳舊，然後添加新的產品類別，這是我們不做的今天沒有，那些 SKU 編號在我們的 ERP 系統中不存在。與 24 年運行率相比，那些在 24 年或 25 年初提交的產品數量將會更多。因此，這確實讓我有信心，這將成為我們在 2025 年實現成長的推動者。但該領域的基本面確實看起來很有吸引力。

Got it. And then maybe just a little more color on what you're seeing in terms of the landscape by geography. It's interesting to see that buildings products has started to improve. Is that a function of European building products getting any better? And I know you mentioned some macro headwinds in China, obviously. So what are you seeing out there?

知道了。然後，也許你所看到的地理景觀會有更多的色彩。有趣的是，建築產品已經開始改進。這是歐洲建築產品的功能變得更好了嗎？我知道你顯然提到了中國的一些宏觀阻力。那你在外面看到了什麼？

I would say in pockets, we -- I mean, if you call specifically on the buildings business, we did observe a good recovery in Europe in our short cycle businesses in building automation. I would say we have crossed the trough in Europe, and we are on a moderate recovery there. We certainly see that. In China, I would say that's not true. Honeywell continues to be in mid- to high single.

我想說的是，我們——我的意思是，如果你特別關注樓宇業務，我們確實觀察到歐洲樓宇自動化短週期業務的良好復甦。我想說，我們已經跨越了歐洲的低谷，並且正在溫和復甦。我們當然看到了這一點。在中國，我想說這不是真的。霍尼韋爾繼續處於中高位。

We have said that before, we will perform well in China, thanks to our aerospace and energy segment. But our automation businesses are flat to slight contraction. We are not observing any change in trajectory which then get reflected on the performance there. So some pockets of recovery in Europe, not so much in China and headline of our growth, which we mentioned in our prepared remarks also, we do see strong growth in India and Saudi Arabia. Those two countries are become [capless] of our growth. We have a moderate amount of revenue there. So certainly double-digit revenue growth certainly helps on our top line.

我們之前說過，我們在中國的表現會很好，這要歸功於我們的航空航太和能源領域。但我們的自動化業務卻持平甚至略有收縮。我們沒有觀察到軌跡發生任何變化，這些變化隨後會反映到那裡的表現。因此，歐洲的一些復甦，而不是中國的復甦，以及我們在準備好的發言中提到的成長的標題，我們確實看到印度和沙烏地阿拉伯的強勁成長。這兩個國家已經無法支持我們的成長。我們在那裡有適度的收入。因此，兩位數的收入成長肯定有助於我們的營收成長。

This concludes our question-and-answer session. Mr. Kapur, I'll turn the floor back to you for any final comments.

我們的問答環節到此結束。卡普爾先生，我將把最後的意見轉回給您。

I want to express my thanks to our shareholders for your support and to the Honeywell future shaper, who will help us to achieve our accelerated growth goals. Our future is bright, and we look forward to updating you on the progress. Thank you for listening, and please stay safe and healthy.

我要向股東的支持和霍尼韋爾未來塑造者表示感謝，他們將幫助我們實現加速成長的目標。我們的未來是光明的，我們期待向您通報最新進展。感謝您的聆聽，請保持安全與健康。

Thank you. This concludes today's conference call. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation.

謝謝。今天的電話會議到此結束。此時您可以斷開線路。感謝您的參與。