漢威聯合 (HON) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Honeywell third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

感謝您的耐心等待，歡迎參加霍尼韋爾 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's call is being recorded.

（操作員說明）請注意，今天的通話正在錄音。

I would now like to hand the call over to Sean Meakim, Vice President of Investor Relations.

我現在想將電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Sean Meakim。

Please go ahead.

請繼續。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good morning, and welcome to Honeywell's third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

早安，歡迎參加霍尼韋爾 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。

On the call with me today are Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Vimal Kapur; Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Greg Lewis; and Vice President of Corporate Finance, Mike Stepniak.

今天與我通話的是董事長兼執行長 Vimal Kapur；資深副總裁兼財務長格雷格·劉易斯；和企業財務副總裁 Mike Stepniak。

This webcast and the presentation materials, including non-GAAP reconciliations, are available on our Investor Relations website.

此網路廣播和簡報資料（包括非公認會計原則調節表）可在我們的投資者關係網站上取得。

From time to time, we post new information that may be of interest or material to our investors on this website.

我們會不時在本網站上發布投資者可能感興趣或重要的新資訊。

Our discussion today includes forward-looking statements that are based on our best view of the world and of our businesses as we see them today and are subject to risks and uncertainties, including the ones described in our SEC filings.

我們今天的討論包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述是基於我們對世界和我們今天所看到的業務的最佳看法，並受到風險和不確定性的影響，包括我們在SEC 文件中描述的風險和不確定性。

This morning, we will review our financial results for the third quarter, share our guidance for the fourth quarter, and provide an update on full-year 2024.

今天上午，我們將回顧第三季的財務業績，分享第四季度的指引，並提供 2024 年全年的最新情況。

As always, we'll leave time for your questions at the end.

像往常一樣，我們最後會留出時間回答您的問題。

With that, I'll turn the call over to Chairman and CEO, Vimal Kapur.

接下來，我會將電話轉給董事長兼執行長 Vimal Kapur。

Thank you, Sean, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝肖恩，大家早安。

To start, I would like to highlight the significant leadership change announced earlier in the third quarter.

首先，我想強調第三季早些時候宣布的重大領導層變動。

After we report our 2024 financial results at the beginning of next year, Greg Lewis will step down as Chief Financial Officer of Honeywell, and Greg will enter a new role as Senior Vice President of Honeywell Accelerator and serve as a special advisor to me.

明年初我們公佈 2024 年財務業績後，格雷格·劉易斯 (Greg Lewis) 將辭去霍尼韋爾首席財務官一職，格雷格將出任霍尼韋爾加速器高級副總裁，並擔任我的特別顧問。

I would like to express my sincere thanks to Greg for his partnership with me through my first year as CEO and his successful performance as CFO since 2018.

我衷心感謝 Greg 在我擔任執行長的第一年中與我的合作以及他自 2018 年擔任財務長以來的成功表現。

He guided the company through multiple reorganizations and significant M&A activity.

他指導公司完成了多次重組和重大併購活動。

And his leadership was critical to transforming Honeywell into the digital operator it is today.

他的領導力對於霍尼韋爾轉型為當今的數位營運商至關重要。

Mike Stepniak, Former Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Aerospace Technologies, will succeed Greg in February.

航空航太技術公司前副總裁兼財務長 Mike Stepniak 將於二月接替格雷格。

Mike will serve as Vice President of Corporate Finance and work closely with Greg and me during this transition.

麥克將擔任企業財務副總裁，並在過渡期間與格雷格和我密切合作。

I would like to congratulate Mike and express my deeply rooted confidence in his readiness to lead Honeywell with me into our next stage of growth and innovation, as we continue to deliver value for our shareholders.

我謹向麥克表示祝賀，並表示我對他願意與我一起帶領霍尼韋爾進入下一階段的成長和創新充滿信心，因為我們將繼續為股東創造價值。

With that, let's turn to slide 3.

接下來，讓我們轉向投影片 3。

Honeywell demonstrated a commitment to operational excellence in the third quarter, exceeding the high end of our adjusted earnings per share and segment margin guidance ranges, despite sales coming in below our guided range.

儘管銷售額低於我們的指導範圍，但霍尼韋爾在第三季度表現出了對卓越營運的承諾，超出了我們調整後每股收益和部門利潤指導範圍的上限。

Near-term delays in a couple of the project-led businesses, lack of short-cycle improvement, and some discrete supply chain disruption in September in aerospace have caused us to [rebaseline] our expectations for the year.

一些專案主導業務的近期延誤、缺乏短週期改進以及 9 月航空航太領域的一些離散供應鏈中斷導致我們[重新設定]今年的預期。

Although the organic growth of 3% in the quarter was below our guidance, we continue to be encouraged by sustained strength in aerospace technologies output, further sequential progress in building automation, and ongoing positive order trends.

儘管本季 3% 的有機成長低於我們的指導，但航空航天技術產出的持續強勁、樓宇自動化的進一步連續進展以及持續的積極訂單趨勢繼續令我們感到鼓舞。

Before we dive down into more detailed discussion on the results and updated outlook for 2024, I would like to reiterate the strategic priorities that are cornerstone of my tenure as CEO and our latest progress against them.

在我們深入討論 2024 年業績和最新展望之前，我想重申一下作為執行長任期基石的策略重點以及我們在這些方面取得的最新進展。

First priority is the acceleration of profitable organic growth towards the upper end of our long-term target range of 4% to 7%.

首要任務是加速獲利有機成長，達到我們長期目標範圍 4% 至 7% 的上限。

While our recent performance has been below this target, we are accelerating driving new product innovation and commercial excellence to support higher growth rates in future.

雖然我們最近的業績低於這一目標，但我們正在加速推動新產品創新和商業卓越，以支持未來更高的成長率。

And we are already seeing returns of this strategy.

我們已經看到了這項策略的回報。

We booked a record $1 billion of orders in UOP, showing the strength of our technology and the promise of our sustainability offerings.

我們在 UOP 預訂了創紀錄的 10 億美元訂單，展示了我們的技術實力和永續發展產品的承諾。

This quarter, Electra selected Honeywell's flight control computers and electromechanical actuation system for its hybrid electric short takeoff and landing aircraft.

本季度，Electra 選擇霍尼韋爾的飛行控制電腦和機電驅動系統用於其混合電動短距起降飛機。

Earlier this week, we announced a new partnership with Google Cloud, leveraging Google's Vertex AI and Honeywell Forge to accelerate our customers' transition from automation to autonomous operations.

本週早些時候，我們宣布與 Google Cloud 建立新的合作關係，利用 Google 的 Vertex AI 和 Honeywell Forge 加速客戶從自動化到自主營運的過渡。

By continuing to focus our effort on these key strategies, we are confident that we will be able to deliver organic growth at upper end of our long range in the future.

透過持續將精力集中在這些關鍵策略上，我們有信心未來能夠在長期範圍的高端實現有機成長。

Second, we are making headway on the evolution of our accelerator operating system, transforming the way we run the company to extract incremental value from our operations and drive growth.

其次，我們正在加速器作業系統的發展方面取得進展，改變我們經營公司的方式，以從我們的營運中獲取增量價值並推動成長。

Accelerator is unlocking new ways for us to leverage our well-established digital backbone to enhance top-line growth and expand margins, in addition to successfully integrating our recent portfolio additions.

除了成功整合我們最近新增的投資組合之外，加速器還為我們開啟了新的方式，利用我們完善的數位骨幹來提高收入成長和擴大利潤率。

We are leveraging our digital domain through our Honeywell Forge IoT platform, creating recurring revenue streams that are delivering increased value for our customers and shareholders alike.

我們透過 Honeywell Forge IoT 平台利用我們的數位領域，創造經常性收入流，為我們的客戶和股東帶來更多價值。

And third, we are accelerating value creation through the simplification of Honeywell and optimization of our portfolio, pursuing accretive bolt-on and tuck-in acquisition, as well as targeted noncore divestitures that will lead to improved financial performance, strong cash generation, and an increasingly attractive outlook for investors.

第三，我們正在透過簡化霍尼韋爾和優化我們的產品組合來加速價值創造，追求增值性的補強和整合收購，以及有針對性的非核心資產剝離，這將改善財務業績、強勁的現金產生和前景對投資者越來越有吸引力。

Before we discuss our results for the third quarter in more detail, let me take a moment to talk about in more depth about our progress on portfolio shaping on slide 4.

在我們更詳細地討論第三季的業績之前，讓我花點時間更深入地討論一下投影片 4 上我們在投資組合塑造方面的進展。

The end of the third quarter marks one full year since we announced the reorganization of our businesses around the three powerful megatrends of automation, the future of aviation, and energy transition.

第三季末標誌著我們宣布圍繞自動化、航空未來和能源轉型三大趨勢進行業務重組整整一年。

I'm proud of the progress we have demonstrated on our portfolio strategy in 2024, particularly as our efforts have borne fruit over the past few months.

我對 2024 年我們的投資組合策略所取得的進展感到自豪，特別是我們的努力在過去幾個月中取得了成果。

We have remained disciplined in our commitment to executing strategic bolt-on M&A that aligns with our three key megatrends and are accretive to our financial profile.

我們始終恪守承諾，執行符合我們三大關鍵大趨勢並能提升我們財務狀況的策略性補充併購。

We have successfully closed four acquisitions this year, representing over $9 billion in deployed capital to M&A.

今年我們已成功完成四筆收購，涉及併購的部署資本超過 90 億美元。

All four deals fit seamlessly into our portfolio, bolstering our capability across automation, aerospace, and energy transition, and enhancing our growth trajectory.

所有四筆交易都無縫融入我們的投資組合，增強了我們在自動化、航空航太和能源轉型領域的能力，並增強了我們的成長軌跡。

We are happy to welcome our new future shapers of Honeywell.

我們很高興歡迎霍尼韋爾新的未來塑造者。

And we are excited by the substantial possibilities in front of us as we work to ensure seamless integration across all three business segments.

當我們努力確保所有三個業務部門的無縫整合時，我們對眼前的巨大可能性感到興奮。

In addition, earlier this month, we took another important step in our simplification journey, announcing our plans to spin off advanced materials into an independent, publicly traded company.

此外，本月早些時候，我們在簡化之旅中又邁出了重要一步，宣布計劃將先進材料分拆為獨立的上市公司。

As a global leader in sustainability-focused specialty chemicals and materials, advanced materials will be positioned to benefit from financial flexibility to pursue the next generation of sustainable refrigerants and other valuable solution for customers in electronic materials, that support the semiconductor industry, industrial grade fibers, and highly engineered healthcare application.

作為專注於永續發展的特種化學品和材料領域的全球領導者，先進材料將受益於財務靈活性，為電子材料領域的客戶尋求下一代永續冷媒和其他有價值的解決方案，支持半導體產業、工業級纖維，以及高度工程化的醫療保健應用程式。

This quarter, we also made the decision to reclassify the personal protective equipment or PPE business as asset held for sale.

本季度，我們也決定將個人防護裝備或 PPE 業務重新分類為持有待售資產。

This move will help us further strengthen our core business and will be accretive to Honeywell's organic growth and margin rate.

此舉將幫助我們進一步加強核心業務，並將促進霍尼韋爾的有機成長和利潤率。

We will provide more details once a sale has been announced.

一旦宣佈出售，我們將提供更多詳細資訊。

The acquisitions we have made this year, along with the share buybacks, dividend, and high-return CapEx will add up to a record $14 billion in capital deployed in 2024.

我們今年進行的收購，加上股票回購、股利和高回報資本支出，到 2024 年部署的資本將達到創紀錄的 140 億美元。

We believe this demonstrates meaningful progress towards strengthening and simplifying our portfolio.

我們相信，這表明我們在加強和簡化我們的產品組合方面取得了有意義的進展。

However, our work is not yet done.

然而，我們的工作還沒有完成。

And we'll continue to leverage portfolio optimization as a fundamental pillar of growth and margin enhancement into 2025 and beyond.

我們將繼續利用投資組合優化作為 2025 年及以後成長和利潤提升的基本支柱。

With that, now let me turn it to Greg on slide 5 to discuss our third-quarter results in more detail, as well as provide an update on the fourth-quarter and full-year guidance.

現在，讓我將幻燈片 5 上的格雷格轉給格雷格，更詳細地討論我們的第三季業績，並提供第四季度和全年指導的最新資訊。

Thank you, Vimal, and good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，Vimal，大家早安。

I'll begin on slide 5.

我將從幻燈片 5 開始。

We navigated through a challenging operational environment in the third quarter, delivering segment margin and adjusted earnings per share above the high end of our guidance range and 10% increased cash flow despite coming in below our sales guidance.

我們在第三季度過了充滿挑戰的營運環境，儘管低於我們的銷售指導，但部門利潤率和調整後每股收益仍高於我們指導範圍的上限，現金流增加了 10%。

The main driver of the sales miss was performance below our prior expectations in industrial automation, as our revenues were sequentially flat across the portfolio.

銷售業績不佳的主要原因是工業自動化領域的表現低於我們先前的預期，因為我們整個產品組合的收入連續持平。

We were also impacted by some discrete manufacturing disruptions in September, including Hurricane Helene and a separate fire at one of our aerospace technology plants.

9 月份，我們也受到了一些離散製造中斷的影響，包括颶風海倫和我們的一家航空航天技術工廠發生的另一起火災。

All in, this led to third-quarter organic sales growth of 3% year over year, with three segments remaining in positive territory and double-digit growth in defense and space, and commercial aviation original equipment in aerospace.

總而言之，這導致第三季有機銷售額年增 3%，其中三個細分市場保持正成長，國防和航太以及航空航太領域的商用航空原始設備實現兩位數成長。

This was the first full quarter of impact from the acquisition of Access Solutions.

這是收購 Access Solutions 產生影響的第一個完整季度。

And we're pleased with the performance of that business in the early days of integration.

我們對該業務在整合初期的表現感到滿意。

We also saw approximately one month of impact in aerospace from the CAES and Civitanavi acquisitions.

我們也看到 CAES 和 Civitaavi 收購對航空航太業產生了約一個月的影響。

On orders, we grew 2% organically year over year, with a book-to-bill of 1.1, led by double-digit growth in energy and sustainability solutions, and building automation.

在訂單方面，我們的有機年增長了 2%，訂單出貨比為 1.1，其中能源和永續解決方案以及樓宇自動化領域實現了兩位數成長。

This order strength drove a 10% year-over-year improvement in backlog to a record $34 billion.

訂單強勁推動積壓訂單年增 10%，達到創紀錄的 340 億美元。

Excluding the impact of M&A, backlog grew 6% year over year and 4% sequentially.

排除併購的影響，積壓訂單年增 6%，季增 4%。

Although sales came in below our expectations, profit remained resilient as we leveraged our Honeywell Accelerator operating system and cost management capabilities to protect our bottom line.

儘管銷售額低於我們的預期，但由於我們利用霍尼韋爾加速器作業系統和成本管理能力來保護我們的利潤，利潤仍然保持彈性。

Segment profit grew 6% year over year, led by double-digit growth in aerospace.

在航空航太領域兩位數成長的帶動下，該部門利潤年增 6%。

Segment margin remained flat at 23.6%, 30 basis points above the high end of our guidance, as expansion in industrial automation, building automation, and energy and sustainability solutions was offset by higher corporate costs year over year, mainly due to our investment in our digital infrastructure.

分部利潤率持平於23.6%，比我們指導的上限高出30 個基點，因為工業自動化、樓宇自動化以及能源和永續發展解決方案的擴張被逐年上升的企業成本所抵消，這主要是由於我們對數位基礎設施。

Earnings per share for the third quarter was $2.16, down 5% year over year.

第三季每股收益為2.16美元，年減5%。

And adjusted earnings per share was $2.58, up 8% year over year and above the high end of our guidance range, driven primarily by segment profit growth and lower interest expense due to timing of M&A deal closures.

調整後每股收益為 2.58 美元，年增 8%，高於我們指導範圍的上限，這主要是由於部門利潤增長和併購交易結束時間導致的利息支出下降所推動。

We took a charge in the quarter as a result of our decision to exit the PPE business in industrial automation.

由於我們決定退出工業自動化領域的個人防護用品業務，我們在本季收取了費用。

A bridge for adjusted EPS from 3Q '23 to 3Q '24 can be found in the appendix of this presentation.

可以在本簡報的附錄中找到從 23 年第三季到 24 年第三季調整後每股盈餘的橋樑。

Free cash flow in the quarter was $1.7 billion, up 10% year over year due to stronger operational income and higher collections.

由於營運收入增加和收款增加，本季自由現金流為 17 億美元，較去年同期成長 10%。

On capital deployment, we put $3.1 billion to work in the third quarter, with $2.1 billion in M&A, $700 million in dividends, and $300 million in high-return capital expenditures.

在資本配置方面，我們第三季投入了31億美元，其中併購21億美元，股利7億美元，高回報資本支出3億美元。

As Vimal highlighted, we made significant progress this quarter and are on track to deploy over $14 billion in capital this year.

正如 Vimal 所強調的，我們本季取得了重大進展，今年預計將部署超過 140 億美元的資本。

And our work is not yet done, as we continue to leverage our balance sheet into 2025 reshaping the portfolio.

我們的工作尚未完成，我們將在 2025 年繼續利用資產負債表重塑投資組合。

Now let's spend a few minutes on the third-quarter performance by business.

現在讓我們花幾分鐘時間來了解第三季的業務表現。

In aerospace technologies, sales were up 10% organically year over year, the ninth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth.

在航空航天技術領域，銷售額較去年同期有機成長 10%，連續第九個季度實現兩位數成長。

Sales were led by double-digit growth in defense and space, where we continue to unlock volume from our robust backlog through sustained global demand.

國防和航太領域的銷售額呈現兩位數成長，我們透過持續的全球需求持續從強勁的積壓訂單中釋放銷售量。

In commercial aviation, we saw another quarter of double-digit growth in original equipment sales, as chipset deliveries increased with particular strength in business and general aviation.

在商用航空領域，隨著晶片組交付量的增加，尤其是商務航空和通用航空領域的強勁成長，我們看到原始設備銷售額又實現了四分之一的兩位數成長。

Commercial aftermarket saw continued growth as global flight activity continues to rise.

隨著全球航班活動持續增加，商業售後市場持續成長。

Despite some discrete supply chain disruptions in September that impacted our air transport OE business, output improved 13% in the quarter as we made sequential progress in supply chain, the ninth consecutive quarter of double-digit output growth.

儘管9 月出現了一些離散的供應鏈中斷，影響了我們的航空運輸原配業務，但隨著我們在供應鏈方面取得連續進展，本季產量仍增長了13%，這是連續第九個季度實現兩位數產量成長。

Segment margin remained flat year over year at 27.7% in the third quarter, as commercial excellence and productivity actions were offset by cost inflation and mix pressure within original equipment.

第三季度，該部門的利潤率與去年同期相比持平，為 27.7%，因為商業卓越和生產力行動被成本通膨和原始設備內的混合壓力所抵消。

Industrial automation sales were flat sequentially, but decreased 5% organically in the quarter, primarily due to lower volumes in warehouse and workflow solutions, and short-cycle safety and sensing technologies.

工業自動化銷售額環比持平，但本季有機下降 5%，這主要是由於倉庫和工作流程解決方案以及短週期安全和感測技術的銷售下降。

Process solutions sales grew 2% year over year and 1% sequentially in the quarter, driven by strength in our aftermarket services and compressor controls businesses, partially offset by demand softness in smart energy and thermal solutions, as well as some delays in our projects business.

受我們售後服務和壓縮機控制業務實力的推動，本季流程解決方案銷售額同比增長 2%，環比增長 1%，但部分被智能能源和熱力解決方案需求疲軟以及項目業務的一些延遲所抵消。

Sensing and safety technologies sales declined year over year and sequentially.

感測和安全技術銷售額較去年同期和較上季下降。

But the sensing business delivered modest sequential growth for the second consecutive quarter.

但感測業務連續第二季實現小幅環比成長。

In productivity solutions and services, orders and organic sales grew double digits year over year when excluding the impact of the Zebra license and settlement payments that ended in the first quarter of this year.

在生產力解決方案和服務方面，排除今年第一季結束的 Zebra 許可和和解付款的影響，訂單和有機銷售額同比增長兩位數。

Industrial automation segment margin expanded 60 basis points to 20.3% due to productivity actions and commercial excellence, partly offset by cost inflation and volume leverage.

由於生產力提升和商業卓越，工業自動化部門的利潤率擴大了 60 個基點，達到 20.3%，但部分被成本通膨和銷售槓桿所抵消。

In building automation, sales grew 14% year over year and 11% sequentially, thanks to a full quarter of the Access Solutions acquisition and acceleration in the fire business.

在樓宇自動化領域，銷售額年增 14%，環比成長 11%，這得益於整個季度對 Access Solutions 的收購以及消防業務的加速發展。

Organically, BA sales were up 3%, supported by another quarter of solid performance in building solutions.

整體而言，BA 銷售額成長了 3%，這得益於建築解決方案又一個季度的穩健表現。

Solutions grew 8% in the quarter, driven by another double-digit growth performance in projects and sequential growth in services.

在專案業績再次實現兩位數成長以及服務連續成長的推動下，本季解決方案成長了 8%。

Product sales declined slightly year over year, but saw sequential improvement organically for the second straight quarter, thanks to strength in fire.

產品銷售量較去年同期略有下降，但由於火勢強勁，連續第二季出現連續改善。

Building automation orders continue to be a bright spot, led by 25% year-over-year growth in building solutions on continued strong demand in data centers, healthcare, and energy.

樓宇自動化訂單持續成為亮點，由於資料中心、醫療保健和能源需求持續強勁，樓宇解決方案年增 25%。

Segment margin expanded 30 basis points to 25.9% due to the impact of a full quarter from Access Solutions and commercial excellence, partially offset by cost inflation.

由於 Access Solutions 和商業卓越的整個季度的影響，該部門利潤率擴大了 30 個基點，達到 25.9%，但部分被成本上漲所抵消。

Energy and sustainability solutions sales grew 1% organically in the third quarter.

第三季能源和永續發展解決方案銷售額有機成長 1%。

Advanced materials grew 3% year on year due to further improvement in specialty chemicals and materials, particularly in Spectra, and continued growth in flooring products.

由於特種化學品和材料（特別是 Spectra）的進一步改進以及地板產品的持續增長，先進材料比去年同期增長 3%。

UOP sales declined 2% as growth in aftermarket services and catalyst was offset by softness due to project timing.

UOP 銷售額下降 2%，原因是售後服務和催化劑的成長被專案時機所致的疲軟所抵消。

Orders in UOP were up over 50% in the quarter to a record $1 billion, with strength in core process technologies and a record of more than $200 million in sustainable technology solutions.

UOP 本季的訂單成長了 50% 以上，達到創紀錄的 10 億美元，其核心工藝技術實力雄厚，可持續技術解決方案的訂單量也創下了超過 2 億美元的記錄。

This marks the third consecutive quarter with ESS book-to-bill at 1.2.

這標誌著 ESS 訂單出貨比連續第三個季度達到 1.2。

Segment margin expanded 10 basis points to 24.5% due to commercial excellence, net of inflation.

由於商業卓越（扣除通貨膨脹因素），該部門利潤率擴大了 10 個基點，達到 24.5%。

Overall, our accelerator playbook continues to serve us well as we once again demonstrated our ability to protect margins even in a lower growth environment.

總體而言，我們的加速器策略繼續為我們提供良好服務，因為我們再次證明了即使在較低成長環境下也能保護利潤率的能力。

Healthy orders, record backlog, and accretive growth rates across the M&A deals we have closed this year give us confidence in our ability to drive improved organic growth in the future.

我們今年完成的併購交易的健康訂單、創紀錄的積壓訂單和成長率使我們對未來推動有機成長的能力充滿信心。

With that, let's turn to slide 6, and we can talk about our fourth-quarter and updated full-year outlook.

接下來，讓我們轉向投影片 6，我們可以討論我們的第四季和更新後的全年展望。

Due to the incrementally more challenging end-market backdrop, we are revising our full-year sales guidance range while increasing the midpoint of our segment margin guidance.

由於終端市場的挑戰日益嚴峻，我們正在修訂全年銷售指引範圍，同時提高分部利潤率指引的中位數。

We are narrowing our adjusted EPS guidance to the high end of the prior range due to that margin outlook combined with favorable adjustment to our effective tax rate.

由於利潤率前景以及對我們有效稅率的有利調整，我們將調整後的每股收益指引縮小到先前範圍的高端。

While our pace of sales has not degraded, we have not seen the short-cycle acceleration which we anticipated by this point in the year.

雖然我們的銷售速度沒有下降，但我們並沒有看到今年此時預期的短週期加速。

And it's appropriate to reflect that, as well as the energy-related and aero output pushouts in our outlook.

在我們的展望中反映這一點以及能源相關和航空輸出的推動是適當的。

Our demand profile remains healthy, with book-to-bill of 1.1 and record backlog.

我們的需求狀況保持健康，訂單出貨比為 1.1，積壓訂單創歷史新高。

And we're confident in our ability to accelerate growth within our long-term framework in the coming quarters.

我們對未來幾季在長期框架內加速成長的能力充滿信心。

We now expect full-year sales to be in the range of $38.6 billion to $38.8 billion, representing organic growth of 3% to 4%, down from 5% to 6% previously.

我們目前預計全年銷售額將在 386 億美元至 388 億美元之間，有機成長 3% 至 4%，低於先前的 5% 至 6%。

The lower guide reflects the lower third-quarter results, a slower recovery in industrial automation, and more tempered expectations in pockets of aerospace and energy markets in the fourth quarter.

較低的指引反映了第三季業績較低、工業自動化復甦放緩以及第四季度航空航太和能源市場部分地區的預期更加溫和。

As a reminder, our guidance includes the impact of all four acquisitions: Access Solutions, Civitanavi, CAES, and LNG, now all closed.

提醒一下，我們的指導意見包括所有四項收購的影響：Access Solutions、Civitanavi、CAES 和 LNG，現在已全部結束。

Collectively, they will add approximately $800 million in sales in 2024, consistent with prior communications.

與先前的溝通一致，到 2024 年，他們的銷售額將總共增加約 8 億美元。

For the fourth quarter, we anticipate sales in the range of $10.2 billion to $10.4 billion, up 2% to 4% organically.

我們預計第四季的銷售額將在 102 億美元至 104 億美元之間，有機成長 2% 至 4%。

Sales should increase sequentially across the portfolio, led by aerospace, as we experience additional supply chain unlock as well as continued growth in flight hours and chipset deliveries.

隨著我們經歷額外的供應鏈解鎖以及飛行時間和晶片組交付的持續增長，整個產品組合的銷售額應會連續增長，以航空航天為主導。

Turning to segment margins, our strong result in the third quarter and our commercial excellence, and productivity playbook are supporting our bottom line.

談到部門利潤率，我們第三季的強勁業績以及我們的商業卓越性和生產力策略支撐著我們的利潤。

As a result, we're narrowing our overall segment margin guidance towards the high end, now expecting to end the year between 23.4% and 23.5%, flat to 10 basis points from 2023.

因此，我們將整體細分市場利潤率指引縮小至高端，目前預計年底將在 23.4% 至 23.5% 之間，自 2023 年起持平至 10 個基點。

That said, the dynamics we highlighted last quarter still hold.

也就是說，我們上季強調的動態仍然存在。

Delays in short-cycle improvement are leading our long-cycle project and original equipment business to a larger percentage of our mix, driving margin headwinds.

短週期改善的延遲導致我們的長週期專案和原始設備業務在我們的組合中佔據更大的比例，從而推動利潤率的逆風。

In the long term, this provides us an expanded installed base to leverage for high-margin aftermarket projects.

從長遠來看，這為我們提供了擴大的安裝基礎，以利用高利潤的售後市場項目。

We now expect overall segment profit dollars to grow between 5% and 6% for the year.

我們現在預計今年整體部門利潤將成長 5% 至 6%。

At a segment level, building automation and energy, and sustainability solutions will lead the group in margin expansion.

在細分市場層面，樓宇自動化和能源以及永續發展解決方案將引領集團的利潤擴張。

For the fourth quarter, we anticipate overall segment margin in the range of 23.8% to 24.2%, up sequentially but down 20 to 60 basis points year over year as a result of mix within original equipment and aerospace, and volume deleverage in industrial automation.

對於第四季度，我們預計整體細分市場利潤率將在23.8% 至24.2% 範圍內，環比上升，但同比下降20 至60 個基點，這是由於原始設備和航空航天領域的混合以及工業自動化領域的批量去槓桿化所致。

Now let's spend a moment on our outlook by business.

現在讓我們花點時間談談我們對業務的展望。

Looking ahead for aerospace technologies, we still expect low double-digit growth in 2024 organic sales, with double-digit growth in both commercial aviation and defense and space.

展望航空航太技術，我們仍預期 2024 年有機銷售額將出現兩位數的低成長，其中商業航空、國防和航太領域將出現兩位數成長。

In the fourth quarter, we expect sales growth of mid- to high single digits, with particular strength in commercial aftermarket.

我們預計第四季的銷售額將實現中高個位數成長，其中商業售後市場尤其強勁。

As previously noted, segment margin in the third quarter outperformed our expectations on better-than-anticipated mix.

如前所述，第三季的分部利潤率超出了我們對好於預期的組合的預期。

But we still see modest year-over-year segment margin contraction as discrete supply chain disruptions from the third quarter are resolved, and we see a corresponding recovery in commercial original equipment volumes.

但隨著第三季的離散供應鏈中斷得到解決，我們仍然看到細分市場利潤率同比小幅收縮，並且我們看到商業原始設備銷售相應復甦。

Moving to industrial automation, we're lowering our 2024 outlook for year-over-year organic sales to decline in the high single-digit range, as slower-than-expected short-cycle demand recovery alongside project pushouts and process solutions, dampened our outlook for full-year organic growth.

轉向工業自動化，我們將 2024 年有機銷售額的同比預期下調至高個位數下降，因為短週期需求復甦速度慢於預期，加上專案推出和流程解決方案，削弱了我們的業績。前景。

For the fourth quarter, we expect sales down low single digits, with modest growth in projects and aftermarket services, offset primarily by softness in sensing and safety technologies, and smart energy.

對於第四季度，我們預計銷售額將下降低個位數，專案和售後服務將適度成長，但主要被感測和安全技術以及智慧能源的疲軟所抵消。

Margins will be down overall this year for industrial automation, but up when excluding the impact of the license and settlement payments that ended in the first quarter.

今年工業自動化的利潤率總體將下降，但如果排除第一季結束的許可證和和解付款的影響，利潤率將上升。

In building automation, we still expect full-year organic growth in the low single-digit range, led by continued strength in building solutions in high-growth regions, particularly in India and Saudi Arabia.

在樓宇自動化方面，我們仍然預計全年有機成長將在低個位數範圍內，這主要得益於高成長地區（尤其是印度和沙烏地阿拉伯）樓宇解決方案的持續強勁。

Fourth-quarter sales will be up year over year and flat to up sequentially, as we see volume improvement led by fire products.

第四季的銷售額將同比增長，環比持平，因為我們看到消防產品帶動銷售改善。

Margins should hit their high point for the year in the fourth quarter as improvement in fire and the impact of Access Solutions support positive mix.

由於火災情況的改善和 Access Solutions 的影響支持積極的組合，第四季度的利潤率應達到全年最高點。

For energy and sustainability solutions, the organic growth outlook for the year is still low single digits, with typical strong sequential improvement in the fourth quarter driven by catalyst shipment seasonality.

對於能源和永續發展解決方案，今年的有機成長前景仍然較低，個位數，在催化劑出貨季節性的推動下，第四季通常出現強勁的環比改善。

We're still expecting full-year margin expansion with the fourth quarter at the highest margin rate due to favorable business mix associated with catalyst reloads.

由於與催化劑重新裝載相關的有利業務組合，我們仍預計全年利潤率將擴張，第四季度的利潤率將達到最高。

We will also see a lift from the first quarter of sales in our newly acquired LNG business.

我們也將看到新收購的液化天然氣業務的銷售額較第一季有所提升。

Moving to other key guided metrics, net below the line is now expected to be between negative $650 million and negative $700 million for the full year.

至於其他關鍵指引指標，目前預計全年線下淨額將在負 6.5 億美元至負 7 億美元之間。

For the fourth quarter, net below the line is expected to be between negative $250 million and negative $300 million.

第四季線下淨額預計將在負 2.5 億美元至負 3 億美元之間。

We now expect pension income to be approximately $600 million for 2024, up $50 million from our prior guide due to a one-time item that was pushed out from the fourth quarter into 2025.

我們現在預計 2024 年退休金收入約為 6 億美元，比我們之前的指南增加 5,000 萬美元，原因是一項一次性項目從第四季度推遲到 2025 年。

This guidance includes repositioning spend between $150 million and $190 million for the year and between $60 million and $100 million for the fourth quarter, as we invest in high-return projects to support future growth and productivity.

該指導方針包括將全年支出重新定位在1.5 億至1.9 億美元之間，將第四季度支出重新定位在6,000 萬至1 億美元之間，因為我們投資於高回報項目以支持未來的成長和生產力。

We expect the adjusted effective tax rate to be around 20% for the full year and 17% for the fourth quarter.

我們預計調整後的全年有效稅率為20%左右，第四季為17%左右。

The reduction in expected tax rate is a result of favorable adjustments to income tax contingencies and taxable income mix.

預期稅率的降低是對所得稅或有事項和應稅收入結構進行有利調整的結果。

We anticipate average share count to be around 655 million shares for the full year and around 653 million shares for the fourth quarter.

我們預計全年平均股數約為 6.55 億股，第四季平均股數約為 6.53 億股。

And we maintain balance sheet capacity to deploy additional capital to achieve the highest shareholder returns.

我們維持資產負債表能力，部署額外資本，以實現最高的股東回報。

We now expect that the year-over-year impact to 2024 adjusted EPS from the four acquisitions closed this year will be approximately neutral, a bit better than we communicated last quarter.

我們現在預計，今年完成的四項收購對 2024 年調整後每股盈餘的年比影響將大致為中性，比我們上季傳達的要好一些。

Slight delays to the closing of the case in LNG deals reduced some of the interest expense and planned integration costs in 2024.

液化天然氣交易結案的略微延遲減少了部分利息支出和 2024 年計畫的整合成本。

And as we get our arms around the business, we're refining our near-term expectations.

當我們開始關注業務時，我們正在完善我們的近期預期。

We continue to expect 1% to 2% EPS accretion in 2025 from these deals.

我們仍預期 2025 年這些交易將使每股盈餘增加 1% 至 2%。

A summary of the 2024 M&A impact on our financials is included in the appendix of this presentation.

本簡報的附錄中總結了 2024 年併購對我們財務狀況的影響。

As a result of all these inputs, we expect full-year adjusted earnings per share to be in the upper half of our prior range, now between $10.15 to $10.25, up 7% to 8% year on year.

由於所有這些投入，我們預計全年調整後每股收益將位於我們先前區間的上半部分，目前介於 10.15 美元至 10.25 美元之間，年增 7% 至 8%。

We expect fourth-quarter adjusted earnings per share between $2.73 and $2.83, up 1% to 5% year on year.

我們預期第四季調整後每股盈餘將在2.73美元至2.83美元之間，年增1%至5%。

On cash, we're reducing our guidance and now expect free cash flow in the range of $5.1 billion to $5.4 billion, down 4% to up 2%, excluding the impact of prior-year settlements.

在現金方面，我們正在降低指導值，目前預計自由現金流在 51 億美元至 54 億美元之間，下降 4% 至成長 2%，不包括上一年和解的影響。

Lower progress in inventory, mainly in aerospace, and slowing payment cycles in certain high-growth regions, has impacted our performance and our expectations.

庫存進度下降（主要是航空航太領域）以及某些高成長地區付款週期放緩，影響了我們的表現和預期。

We continue to work multiyear unwind of working capital.

我們將繼續致力於多年的營運資金縮減。

And we will fund high-return CapEx projects focused on creating uniquely innovative technologies for the company.

我們將為專注於為公司創造獨特創新技術的高回報資本支出項目提供資金。

Overall, while we remain cautious on the macroeconomic environment in the short term, our acquisitions are progressing in line with our expectations, our backlog remains at record highs, and we are driving expansion of our installed base.

總體而言，雖然我們對短期宏觀經濟環境保持謹慎態度，但我們的收購進展符合我們的預期，我們的積壓訂單仍處於歷史高位，並且我們正在推動安裝基礎的擴張。

Our rigorous operating principles give us confidence in our ability to execute on our long-term growth algorithm.

我們嚴格的營運原則使我們對執行長期成長演算法的能力充滿信心。

Now let me turn it back to Vimal on slide 7 for some closing thoughts.

現在讓我把它轉回幻燈片 7 上的 Vimal 來談談一些結束語。

Thank you, Greg.

謝謝你，格雷格。

While we experience some headwinds in the quarter, we are confident in our ability to weather the macroeconomic backdrop with operation rigor you expect from Honeywell.

儘管我們在本季度遇到了一些阻力，但我們對能夠以霍尼韋爾所期望的嚴格運營來應對宏觀經濟背景的能力充滿信心。

We delivered segment margins and adjusted earnings per share above our guidance range in 3Q.

我們第三季的分部利潤率和調整後每股收益高於我們的指導範圍。

We have adjusted our outlook to reflect the realities as we now see them in this macro.

我們調整了我們的前景，以反映我們現在在這個宏觀中看到的現實。

We continue to make steady progress towards our portfolio optimization as we close out the year.

在年底之際，我們將繼續在投資組合優化方面取得穩步進展。

As we look ahead towards 2025, our robust backlog further benefit from accretive growth rates to come from our acquisition.

展望 2025 年，我們強勁的積壓訂單進一步受惠於收購帶來的成長率。

And our leading position in attractive end markets provide us with a constructive outlook despite the ongoing economic and geopolitical uncertainty.

儘管經濟和地緣政治存在持續的不確定性，但我們在有吸引力的終端市場中的領先地位為我們提供了建設性的前景。

While we think volume growth could remain subdued by muted short-cycle growth early in the year, we expect to see organic growth across all four businesses next year.

雖然我們認為今年年初銷售成長可能會因短期週期成長緩慢而受到抑制，但我們預計明年所有四項業務都將出現有機成長。

We plan to return to margin expansion again in 2025, as a combination of volume leverage and productivity actions across the portfolio should offset modest mix headwind in aerospace from OEM activity and integration of CAES.

我們計劃在 2025 年再次恢復利潤率擴張，因為整個產品組合的銷售槓桿和生產力行動的結合應該會抵消 OEM 活動和 CAES 整合在航空航天領域帶來的適度混合阻力。

We look forward to providing more detailed guidance of 2025 during next quarter's earnings call as the backdrop becomes clearer and our portfolio-shaping impact solidify.

隨著背景變得更加清晰並且我們對投資組合塑造的影響得到鞏固，我們期待在下一季的財報電話會議上提供更詳細的 2025 年指導。

I remain excited about the future of Honeywell and believe our portfolio-shaping efforts are enabling us to drive innovation and solve some of the world's most challenging problems.

我對霍尼韋爾的未來仍然感到興奮，並相信我們的產品組合塑造努力使我們能夠推動創新並解決一些世界上最具挑戰性的問題。

With that, Sean, let's open up for questions.

肖恩，接下來讓我們開始提問。

Thank you, Vimal.

謝謝你，維馬爾。

Vimal and Greg are now available to answer your questions.

Vimal 和 Greg 現在可以回答您的問題。

(Event Instructions) Operator, please open the line for Q&A.

（活動說明）接線員，請開通問答線路。

(Operator Instructions) Julian Mitchell, Barclays.

（操作員指示）朱利安·米切爾，巴克萊銀行。

Hi, good morning.

嗨，早安。

Maybe I just wanted to start off with a sense maybe -- flesh out a little bit more -- any thoughts around sort of next year.

也許我只是想從一種感覺開始——也許更充實一點——關於明年的任何想法。

I realize we'll get more color in Q4 results.

我意識到我們將在第四季的結果中獲得更多色彩。

But in the past, you've often given sort of more detailed preliminary thoughts for the outyear in October.

但在過去，您經常在 10 月對去年的情況提出更詳細的初步想法。

So just wondered, for example, on the cost side of things, the top line is running light of expectations, but you took down your repositioning expectations for the year.

因此，我想知道，例如，在成本方面，收入低於預期，但您記下了今年的重新定位預期。

I wondered if there might be a case given the macro backdrop to sort of accelerate things like cost-cutting measures, maybe do more repositioning to make sure you can get margins up in 2025.

我想知道在宏觀背景下是否可能加速實施成本削減措施等措施，也許會進行更多重新定位以確保在 2025 年能夠提高利潤率。

So maybe flesh out some thoughts around the margin expansion from here.

因此，也許可以從這裡充實一些關於利潤擴張的想法。

Thanks, Julian.

謝謝，朱利安。

Let me start and then hand over to Greg here.

讓我開始，然後交給格雷格。

Look, I know my predecessors provided guidance on 2025.

看，我知道我的前任提供了 2025 年的指導。

But given the current uncertainty in the environment across what we experienced, the wars, the upcoming elections in the US, and multiple factor, we only thought prudent that we do it in January when more facts are known.

但考慮到目前我們所經歷的環境的不確定性、戰爭、即將到來的美國選舉以及多重因素，我們認為謹慎的做法是在一月份了解更多事實後才這樣做。

But there are a few comments I'll make.

但我要發表一些評論。

First, there are three important backdrops which we all should consider for 2025.

首先，我們都應該考慮 2025 年的三個重要背景。

Number one, our backlog is up 6%, 10% with all the acquisitions.

第一，由於所有收購，我們的積壓訂單增加了 6%、10%。

I do believe we have a better-quality portfolio.

我確實相信我們擁有更優質的產品組合。

And number three, our cost position is very robust.

第三，我們的成本狀況非常穩健。

We have seen that in our margin expansion across all four segments.

我們在所有四個細分市場的利潤率擴張中都看到了這一點。

And that's driven by both productivity and our cost control actions.

這是由生產力和我們的成本控制行動所推動的。

So those are carrying forward for 2025.

所以這些都將延續到 2025 年。

What we're also executing is what's in our control, which is driving growth action through new products, but also continue to drive productivity actions to maintain the higher-quality P&L.

我們正在執行的也是我們控制範圍內的事情，即透過新產品推動成長行動，同時繼續推動生產力行動以維持更高品質的損益。

Now with that backdrop, as we mentioned in our comments, we do expect all four segments to have organic growth in 2025.

現在，在這種背景下，正如我們在評論中提到的，我們確實預計所有四個細分市場將在 2025 年實現有機成長。

Now the specific ranges, we'll share that in January when we have the earnings call.

現在具體範圍，我們將在一月份召開財報電話會議時分享。

But at this point, we feel confident on that fact.

但在這一點上，我們對這一事實充滿信心。

We also feel that -- we also believe we will be back to margin expansion in 2025 based upon the actions we already have taken.

我們也認為，基於我們已經採取的行動，我們也相信我們將在 2025 年恢復利潤率擴張。

So I would say the setup is positive.

所以我想說這個設定是正面的。

There are uncertainty.

存在不確定性。

On the cost position, you're absolutely right; we are very watchful on that, and we have demonstrated that in Q3.

在成本方面，你是完全正確的；我們對此非常關注，並且我們在第三季度已經證明了這一點。

I'm going to pass on to Greg to explain some of the repositioning numbers, what we have reflected on, and provide specific commentary on that.

我將請格雷格解釋一些重新定位的數字、我們所反映的內容，並對此提供具體評論。

Yeah.

是的。

So Julian, the takedown in the repo guidance is really just the Q3 number being on the low end of the range.

所以朱利安，回購指南中的刪除實際上只是第三季的數字處於範圍的低端。

So if you look at our guidance for the fourth quarter of $60 million to $100 million, that's roughly the same as what we had implied.

因此，如果你看看我們對第四季 6,000 萬至 1 億美元的指導，就會發現這與我們暗示的大致相同。

And so the takedown from $150 million to $225 million to now $150 million to $190 million is really just the third quarter being on the low end.

因此，從 1.5 億美元到 2.25 億美元的下降到現在的 1.5 億美元到 1.9 億美元實際上只是第三季的低端水平。

We have a very robust productivity and repositioning pipeline.

我們擁有非常強大的生產力和重新定位管道。

That process, as you know we (inaudible) for years.

如你所知，這個過程（聽不清楚）已經有很多年了。

And to Vimal's point, we're not sitting here in October, thinking the world is coming -- crashing down in 2025.

在 Vimal 看來，我們不會在 10 月坐在這裡，認為世界即將在 2025 年崩潰。

So it's not like we need to ramp up dramatically a major reduction in census to address that, in which case then maybe you would see a much bigger near-term repo change.

因此，我們不需要大幅減少人口普查來解決這個問題，在這種情況下，你可能會看到更大的近期回購變化。

But we're going to always be watchful.

但我們將始終保持警惕。

So that's really -- I wouldn't read too much into the repo guidance coming down other than just having did in the low end.

所以，除了低端的回購指引之外，我不會過度解讀回購指引。

We've given ourselves plenty of flexibility in the fourth quarter to take appropriate productivity actions, and we'll do so.

我們在第四季給了自己足夠的彈性來採取適當的生產力行動，我們會這樣做。

That's very helpful.

這非常有幫助。

Thank you.

謝謝。

And then just a very quick follow-up around -- as we're thinking about sort of portfolio movements and so forth, you announced advanced materials spin.

然後是一個非常快速的後續行動 - 當我們正在考慮某種投資組合變動等時，您宣布了先進材料旋轉。

You've got PPE and assets held for sale.

您有待出售的個人防護裝備和資產。

Just wondered sort of to what extent, Vimal, the changes in the sort of organic backdrop on top line and what's happening with margins, do they have an effect on increasing the urgency of portfolio measures or you think about them as sort of somewhat two independent tracks?

只是想知道，Vimal，頂線有機背景的變化以及利潤率的變化在多大程度上對增加投資組合措施的緊迫性產生了影響，或者您將它們視為某種程度上兩個獨立的因素曲目？

I would say the portfolio actions are driven by two factors.

我想說投資組合的行動是由兩個因素驅動的。

First is the fit in the Honeywell portfolio, building Honeywell into three simplified megatrends, which I committed exactly a year back.

首先是霍尼韋爾產品組合的契合，將霍尼韋爾打造為三個簡化的大趨勢，這是我在一年前承諾的。

So see if you see our actions on both advanced materials and PPE, that reflects that commitment.

因此，看看您是否看到我們在先進材料和個人防護裝備方面的行動，這反映了這一承諾。

I would say the PPE business, in particular, is going to help Honeywell accelerate organic growth and more margin expansion.

我想說，個人防護用品業務尤其將幫助霍尼韋爾加速有機成長和更多利潤擴張。

Advanced material business is more neutral on (effective) basis.

先進材料業務在（有效）基礎上更加中性。

Going ahead, the portfolio actions are never completed.

展望未來，投資組合行動永遠不會完成。

I would say that we're going to constantly look at now, given we have completed this phase, what else we could add or subtract to improve the quality of portfolio of Honeywell.

我想說，鑑於我們已經完成了這一階段，我們現在將繼續關注我們還可以添加或減少哪些內容來提高霍尼韋爾產品組合的品質。

But what I'm really proud of, Julian, is all the four acquisitions we have made, they are in the high-growth end verticals.

但朱利安，我真正感到自豪的是我們進行的所有四次收購，它們都位於高成長的垂直領域。

They are in defense.

他們正在防守。

They are in LNG.

他們在液化天然氣中。

They are in Access Solutions, which are high demand markets.

他們屬於 Access Solutions，這是一個高需求市場。

And that certainly is improving the growth profile of Honeywell, apart from the fact the actions we are taking on the core portfolio.

除了我們對核心產品組合採取的行動之外，這無疑正在改善霍尼韋爾的成長狀況。

Great, thank you.

太好了，謝謝。

Steve Tusa, JPMorgan.

史蒂夫圖薩，摩根大通。

Hello, can you hear me?

你好，你聽得到我說話嗎？

Good morning, Steve.

早安，史蒂夫。

Yeah.

是的。

So sorry, I just missed the first part of the call.

很抱歉，我剛剛錯過了通話的第一部分。

Can you just talk about any kind of trajectory on -- in the kind of '25 and some of the puts and takes?

您能談談 25 年的任何軌跡以及一些變化嗎？

I know you guys had talked to being within the range on organic a few weeks ago, but also just whether the margins can be a kind of a trend line year.

我知道你們幾週前已經討論了有機產品的範圍，但也討論了利潤率是否可以成為一種趨勢線年份。

Any updated thoughts on kind of the '25 look?

對於 25 年的造型有什麼最新的想法嗎？

Sure, Steve, maybe I'll start.

當然，史蒂夫，也許我會開始。

As we talked about when we saw each other in Europe, we still expect all four businesses are going to grow next year.

正如我們在歐洲見面時談到的那樣，我們仍然預計所有四項業務明年都會成長。

And we're going to be coming out of the year with a lower exit rate than we had planned.

今年結束時，我們的退出率將低於我們的計劃。

It's still going to be a positive exit rate.

退出率仍將是正的。

And so when we think about the setup for next year -- again, way too early for guidance, we'll do that in January.

因此，當我們考慮明年的安排時——同樣，對於指導來說還為時過早，我們將在一月份進行。

We do expect all four businesses to grow, and we expect margin expansion broadly across the portfolio, with aero probably being the one that's going to remain, I would say, around its current level organically with -- that's the one area where it will get headline pressure from the acquisitions, though all those acquisitions and particularly in the aeros, (inaudible) they're going to be very strong growth rates.

我們確實預計所有四項業務都會成長，並且我們預計整個投資組合的利潤率都會大幅擴張，我想說，航空業務可能會保持在目前的水平附近，這是它將獲得的一個領域收購帶來的整體壓力，儘管所有這些收購，特別是航空領域的收購，（聽不清楚）它們的成長率都將非常強勁。

So very healthy segment profit growth overall.

因此，整體而言，該部門的利潤成長非常健康。

Okay.

好的。

Great.

偉大的。

And then just on the cash flow cut, what's that?

然後就削減現金流，那是什麼？

Is that just an earnings cut, or is there something else going on in working capital like that?

這只是收入削減，還是營運資金中還有其他類似的情況？

Yeah.

是的。

The two big items there is -- as you know, the biggest pile of inventory we have is in aerospace.

如你所知，我們擁有的最大庫存是航空航太領域的兩大項目。

And that's been the hardest nut for us to crack so far.

這是迄今為止我們最難解決的難題。

And particularly given all the dynamics that you're seeing in the industry over even the last 90 days, we just don't see the ramp-down that we have been trying to drive there specifically.

特別是考慮到您在過去 90 天內看到的行業動態，我們只是沒有看到我們一直在努力推動的具體下降趨勢。

We've made nice progress in both IA and BA on inventory reduction, but not in aero.

我們在 IA 和 BA 方面都在減少庫存方面取得了良好進展，但在航空方面卻沒有取得進展。

And then the other part of that I would just say is in our high-growth regions, we're seeing payment cycle slow.

我想說的另一部分是在我們的高成長地區，我們看到支付週期緩慢。

And I think, again, that's a little bit of reaction to oil prices and a little bit of the disruption happening around the Middle East.

我再次認為，這是對油價的一點反應以及中東地區發生的一點混亂。

And so those two things are really what we're reflecting in the guide on cash.

因此，這兩件事確實是我們在現金指南中所反映的內容。

We do expect, again, as we go into next year, we're going to still work acceleration on working capital reduction effort.

我們確實再次預計，進入明年，我們仍將加速削減營運資本的工作。

And hopefully, the environment will participate in a way that's going to be more conducive to that.

希望環境能夠以更有利於實現這一目標的方式參與其中。

We're going to continue to do our work as we've done on the digitization of our working capital, particularly inventory and planning side to try to unlock that balance.

我們將繼續像我們在營運資本數位化方面所做的那樣，特別是在庫存和規劃方面，努力釋放這種平衡。

Great.

偉大的。

Thanks a lot.

多謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Nigel Coe, Wolfe Research.

奈傑爾·科，沃爾夫研究中心。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Good morning.

早安.

Hope all's well.

希望一切都好。

Just on the aero performance, maybe just touch on the Boeing strike and how you dial that into your sort of 4Q outlook.

就航空性能而言，也許只需觸及波音罷工以及您如何將其納入您的第四季度展望中。

And then within the performance in commercial aftermarket, the plus 8%, can you dissect that between ATR and BizJet?

然後在商業售後市場的表現中，再加上8%，你能剖析一下ATR和BizJet之間的關係嗎？

I'm assuming BizJet's going to be a bit more challenged there.

我認為 BizJet 在那裡會面臨更大的挑戰。

Just any help there would be helpful.

任何幫助都會有所幫助。

Yeah.

是的。

Let me start here, and I'll pass on to Greg.

讓我從這裡開始，然後我將轉給格雷格。

I would say the Boeing circumstances are obviously very challenging.

我想說，波音的情況顯然非常具有挑戰性。

We all saw the results of the strike from yesterday night, which is unfortunate.

我們都看到了昨天晚上罷工的結果，這是不幸的。

I would say from an annual perspective, we have been working very closely with Boeing to make sure that we have a coordinated way of dealing with our shipments with the Boeing.

我想說，從年度角度來看，我們一直與波音公司密切合作，以確保我們能夠以協調的方式處理與波音公司的貨運。

The net punchline of that is, thankfully, there is no impact of that into our revenue in Q4.

值得慶幸的是，這對我們第四季的收入沒有影響。

We are adjusting some shipments into aftermarket of Boeing's customers and so on.

我們正在調整一些發貨到波音客戶的售後市場等。

And we really have to already start thinking about 2025 based upon how things are shaping up.

我們確實必須根據事情的發展開始思考 2025 年。

But for Q4, there's no specific impact into our numbers.

但對於第四季度，我們的數字沒有具體影響。

Maybe, Greg, you want to answer the second part.

也許，格雷格，你想回答第二部分。

Yes.

是的。

So on the commercial aftermarket side, as you saw us report, high single-digit growth overall.

因此，在商業售後市場方面，正如您所看到的，整體呈現高個位數成長。

And as your spidey sensors are telling you, it's double digits in APR, and it's single digits in BGA.

正如你的蜘蛛人感測器告訴你的那樣，APR 是兩位數，BGA 是個位數。

And again, I don't think that should be a surprise to anyone as the international market continues to expand on flight hours as it has throughout the course of the year.

再說一遍，我認為這對任何人來說都不應該感到驚訝，因為國際市場的飛行時間在全年中都在持續擴大。

We're still outgrowing in BGA the flight hours growth, given all of the nice work the team has done on their RMU portfolio.

鑑於團隊在 RMU 產品組合上所做的所有出色工作，我們 BGA 的成長仍然超過了飛行時間的成長。

So that continues to be a positive for us in terms of trying to do the decoupled growth approach that we've been so successful at over the years.

因此，這對於我們嘗試實行多年來一直非常成功的脫鉤增長方法仍然是積極的。

Great, thanks.

太好了，謝謝。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

And just a quick one on the portfolio.

簡單介紹一下作品集。

The PPE, no surprise there.

個人防護裝備，這並不奇怪。

But maybe size the revs and margin for PV this year.

但也許要調整今年光伏發電的轉速和利潤。

And then, I guess, the only other thing on the agenda right now is Quantinium.

然後，我想，現在議程上唯一的其他事情就是 Quantinium。

Are we still hoping to monetize that next year?

我們是否仍希望明年能夠將其貨幣化？

Yeah.

是的。

So the PPE revs are about $1.1 billion.

因此 PPE 的收益約為 11 億美元。

We're not going to get into the margin profile.

我們不會討論保證金情況。

You can probably get close with some of the information you learned over time.

隨著時間的推移，您可能會熟悉一些您學到的資訊。

And then

進而

(multiple speakers) --

（多位發言者）——

Nigel, as we have said, we absolutely want to monetize Honeywell investment at the right time.

奈傑爾，正如我們所說，我們絕對希望在正確的時間將霍尼韋爾的投資貨幣化。

The key focus area for us is continue to make progress on the technical milestone because that will feed into a commercial customer acquisition, which will feed into IPO in that order.

我們的重點關注領域是繼續在技術里程碑上取得進展，因為這將有助於商業客戶的收購，而商業客戶的收購將按順序促進 IPO。

And we are making nice progress on the technical front.

我們在技術方面正在取得良好進展。

Earlier in the year, we worked with Microsoft to prove the error rates in quantum computing, which is a big milestone.

今年早些時候，我們與微軟合作證明了量子運算的錯誤率，這是一個重要的里程碑。

And we did prove one of the highest fidelity computing platform.

我們確實證明了最高保真度的計算平台之一。

They also made some announcement on the capability relative to logical qubits in Q3.

他們也在第三季發布了一些與邏輯量子位元相關的功能的公告。

So we are making progress on expected lines on the technical front, which is very, very positive factor to know.

因此，我們在技術方面正在按預期取得進展，這是非常非常積極的因素。

That will now feed into the next step, to acquire customers.

現在，這將進入下一步，即獲取客戶。

The strategy of monetizing Quantinium hasn't changed.

Quantinium 的貨幣化策略沒有改變。

The timing will be dependent upon as we make progress in the actions we have highlighted earlier.

具體時間將取決於我們在先前強調的行動中所取得的進展。

Great, thank you.

太好了，謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Scott Davis, Melius Research.

斯科特·戴維斯，Melius 研究公司。

Hey, good morning, guys. (inaudible) to the call.

嘿，早上好，夥計們。 （聽不清楚）來電。

Hey, guys, you made this announcement with Forge and Gemini AI.

嘿，夥計們，你們透過 Forge 和 Gemini AI 宣布了這一消息。

I mean, what's the deliverable here?

我的意思是，這裡的可交付成果是什麼？

I can conceptually see what you're doing.

我可以從概念上看到你在做什麼。

But what do you kind of envision as the out the other side, the real kind of killer app for customers?

但您對另一面的設想是什麼，即真正的客戶殺手級應用程式？

Sure, Scott.

當然，斯科特。

I can give you two minutes' version, while I also have a two-hour version of this.

我可以給你兩分鐘的版本，同時我也有一個兩小時的版本。

The short answer is that, as we are connecting more and more of our customer assets into our Forge platform for the last, I would say, about two to three years, the obvious next question for us is, what are we going to do with that data as we keep expanding our customer base through connectivity?

簡而言之，隨著我們在過去大約兩到三年內將越來越多的客戶資產連接到我們的 Forge 平台，我們面臨的下一個明顯問題是，我們將如何處理當我們透過連線不斷擴大客戶群時，這些數據是什麼？

So we're looking ahead and looking to look at the AI model, the Vertex AI capability, which Google has provide us some unique capabilities which will create a new applications on top of that data.

因此，我們正在展望未來，著眼於人工智慧模型、Vertex AI 功能，谷歌為我們提供了一些獨特的功能，這些功能將在這些數據之上創建新的應用程式。

So it's consistent with the strategy, Scott, I have always highlighted, monetize installed base.

因此，這與斯科特我一直強調的策略是一致的，即透過安裝基礎貨幣化。

So monetize installed base by connecting the installed base and then having more capability through partnerships like this.

因此，透過連接現有客戶群，然後透過這樣的合作夥伴關係獲得更多功能，從而實現現有客戶群的貨幣化。

At the same time, we do expect some of our edge devices, our products which connected with the building or the process unit or with the warehouse, things like scanner, think of gas detection devices, embed AI at the chip level and have the Google Nano AI program embedded into that, it makes those products more capable.

同時，我們確實期望我們的一些邊緣設備，我們的產品與建築物或處理單元或倉庫連接，例如掃描儀，考慮氣體檢測設備，在芯片級嵌入人工智能並擁有谷歌奈米人工智能程序嵌入其中，使這些產品功能更加強大。

We expect to launch first half one of them in early 2025.

我們預計將於 2025 年初推出其中的上半年產品。

So this is not a long-term dream.

所以這不是一個長期的夢想。

This is imminently happening shortly.

這很快就會發生。

So all in all, this is -- continue to build upon our commitment of organic growth focus through new innovation.

總而言之，這就是——繼續透過新的創新來鞏固我們對有機成長重點的承諾。

And we are partnering with companies like Google to expand our horizons here.

我們正在與Google等公司合作，以擴大我們的視野。

And I'm very excited about it.

我對此感到非常興奮。

I do expect this is going to help us support our organic growth profile in the years ahead.

我確實希望這將幫助我們支持未來幾年的有機成長。

That makes sense.

這是有道理的。

And just -- Intelligrated, obviously, has been the kind of the gift that keeps on giving.

顯然，Intelligated 一直是一種不斷給予的禮物。

It was great for a while, and then it's been not so great here for a few years.

有一段時間它很棒，但接下來的幾年裡它就不那麼好了。

But how do you fix that business?

但你要如何解決這個問題呢？

It doesn't seem to be as much value at the customer level, perhaps, as we all once thought?

也許，它在客戶層面的價值並不像我們曾經想像的那麼大？

And is it a product innovation issue

還是產品創新問題

(inaudible)?

（聽不清楚）？

Is it just that the market itself is just too cyclical or, perhaps, too concentrated with a couple of big customers, and maybe they have too much power in the channel?

是否只是市場本身週期性太強，或者可能過於集中於幾個大客戶，也許他們在通路中擁有太多權力？

But how do you fix this thing?

但是你要如何解決這個問題呢？

I'll just leave it at that.

我就這樣吧。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah, I know -- I understand the frustration around Intelligrated and so are we, given the performance.

是的，我知道 - 我理解 Intelliglated 的挫敗感，考慮到性能，我們也是如此。

Look, the good news is we saw slight sequential growth in that business in Q3, and we expect that trend to continue in Q4.

看，好消息是我們在第三季度看到該業務略有連續增長，我們預計這種趨勢將在第四季度繼續下去。

Speaking differently, the business is definitely at its spot on with a slight turnaround.

換句話說，該業務肯定處於正軌，並出現了輕微的改善。

As I look ahead, I do see business are becoming very concentrated actually on aftermarket. 2025, our aftermarket, maybe actually 60% of the revenue.

展望未來，我確實看到業務實際上變得非常集中在售後市場。 2025年，我們的售後市場，實際上可能佔收入的60%。

It used to be 30% when we acquired it, so it's almost become double.

原來我們收購的時候是30%，現在幾乎翻倍了。

We have rebaselined our cost base, Scott, to nearly $1 billion run rate revenue, which we have today.

Scott，我們已經將我們的成本基礎重新調整為接近 10 億美元的運行率收入，也就是我們今天的收入。

I think the real constraint here is customer adoption rates.

我認為真正的限制是客戶採用率。

We have talked before, the value proposition is extremely compelling.

我們之前已經談過，價值主張非常引人注目。

However, the capital investment required for fixed sortation system is high.

然而，固定分類系統所需的資金投入較高。

And making that commitment on a long-term basis, you can't decide to automate one warehouse.

為了做出長期的承諾，您不能決定對一個倉庫進行自動化。

You have to basically commit to all of them.

你必須基本上承諾所有這些。

And that commitment, therefore, tends to be several hundred million or sometimes even in $1 billion.

因此，這項承諾往往是數億美元，有時甚至是 10 億美元。

And that really have observed in my two-year watch of this business as a constraint.

在我對這項業務的兩年觀察中，這確實是一個限制。

So I would say we'll continue to run this business as efficiently as we can.

所以我想說，我們將繼續盡可能有效率地經營這項業務。

For 2025, the business has baseline to a point.

到 2025 年，企業已經有了一個基準。

It won't be a drag to the Honeywell's numbers anymore.

這將不再拖累霍尼韋爾的業績。

And we will continue to put our actions in place to make it a better business in the years ahead.

我們將繼續採取行動，使其在未來幾年變得更好。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks a lot, guys.

非常感謝，夥計們。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Chris Snyder, Morgan Stanley.

克里斯‧史奈德，摩根士丹利。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I wanted to ask on the aero organic growth into Q4, slowing to mid- to high singles.

我想詢問第四季的航空有機成長，放緩至中高單打。

And I think you said earlier that there's no impact from the Boeing strike in that.

我想你之前說過波音公司的罷工對此沒有影響。

So I guess, is there any spillover impact from the fire at the facility you saw in Q3?

所以我想，您在第三季看到的設施火災是否會產生溢出影響？

Or does this kind of where you see aero market growing here in Q4?

或者您認為航空市場在第四季會成長嗎？

Look, Chris, aero has been -- it's nine quarters we have been growing double digits.

看，克里斯，空氣動力學一直是——九個季度我們一直在以兩位數的速度成長。

So one is the elevated level of comps that certainly makes it challenging.

因此，其中之一就是比賽水準的提高，這無疑使其具有挑戰性。

But two important facts here to share.

但這裡有兩個重要的事實可以分享。

In Q3, we had two discrete events, which are transitional in nature.

在第三季度，我們發生了兩個離散事件，它們本質上是過渡性的。

We, unfortunately, had a fire in one of our plants.

不幸的是，我們的一處工廠發生了火災。

The plant is back up and running, so we lost that revenue.

該工廠已恢復正常運行，因此我們失去了收入。

And we also saw last week impact of a Helene because we do have large aero facility in Florida, and we could not ship for last couple of days of the quarter.

上週我們也看到了海倫號的影響，​​因為我們在佛羅裡達州確實有大型航空設施，但在本季度的最後幾天我們無法發貨。

Moving ahead in Q4, our acceleration is good.

展望第四季度，我們的加速勢頭良好。

I mean, if you see in Q3, our volume growth is 13%.

我的意思是，如果你看到第三季度，我們的銷量成長了 13%。

Now it used to be in high teens; it has come to the low teens.

現在它曾經是十幾歲的人；它已經到了十幾歲的時候了。

And that's where the volume extension through supply base with elevated levels is really the problem we are solving for.

這就是我們要解決的問題，透過供應基地提高產量來擴大產量。

By no dimension, our outlook has changed.

我們的觀點在任何方面都改變了。

Our outlook for aero for the year is still low double digit.

我們對今年航空航天的展望仍然是低兩位數。

It's that what it was earlier, too.

之前的情況也是如此。

So it's not really changed.

所以它並沒有真正改變。

We have possibly missed an upside opportunity there.

我們可能錯過了那裡的上行機會。

That's how we'll put it.

我們就是這樣說的。

There was a case here, we would have beaten that low double digit to a better number.

這裡有一個例子，我們會把這個低兩位數打敗到更好的數字。

But some of the supply chain pushouts have really made it more of a [not] 2025 event.

但供應鏈的一些退出確實讓它更像是一場 2025 年的事件。

Out backlog, our past dues are now -- continues to be greater than $2 billion.

由於積壓，我們的欠款現在仍然超過 20 億美元。

They have grown further, not a good news from a customer perspective.

它們進一步成長，從客戶的角度來看，這不是一個好消息。

But at the same time, we're carrying forward that backlog next year, which will help us to have very similar profile of growth in 2025 as we are experiencing in Q4 this year.

但同時，我們將在明年結轉積壓訂單，這將有助於我們在 2025 年實現與今年第四季非常相似的成長狀況。

So remain very positive and optimistic.

因此，保持非常積極和樂觀的態度。

I'm also very excited about the CAES acquisition, which is going to further expand the profile.

我對 CAES 的收購也感到非常興奮，這將進一步擴大我們的業務範圍。

It's a meaningful business size, $750 million.

這是一個有意義的業務規模，7.5 億美元。

We do expect a high growth rate in defense segment, which is also going to help and shape 2025 number for aero on the top-line growth.

我們確實預期國防領域將出現高成長率，這也將有助於並塑造航空航太領域 2025 年的收入成長數字。

Thank you.

謝謝。

I appreciate that.

我很欣賞這一點。

And then maybe kind of turning over to industrial automation.

然後可能會轉向工業自動化。

It's been a couple of years now of pretty steady, meaningful declines.

幾年來一直是相當穩定、有意義的下降。

And I understand that a lot of these end markets are challenged, whether it's warehouse or scanners or even safety and sensing.

據我所知，許多終端市場都面臨挑戰，無論是倉庫還是掃描儀，甚至是安全和感測。

But when you look Honeywell's performance in industrial automation compared to the end markets you serve, do you feel like the company is holding share?

但是，當您將霍尼韋爾在工業自動化領域的表現與您所服務的終端市場進行比較時，您是否感覺到該公司正在持有份額？

Or do you think that the company might be losing share or even maybe even gaining share across these end markets?

或者您認為該公司可能會失去這些終端市場的份額，甚至可能會增加份額？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah, Chris, we serve multiple end markets there.

是的，克里斯，我們為多個終端市場提供服務。

So I can't give you a very brief and short answer on that.

所以我無法就此給你一個非常簡短的答案。

I would say, on the whole, the market drivers are the contributing factors on the performance of the industrial automation business.

我想說，整體而言，市場驅動因素是工業自動化業務表現的影響因素。

I mean, there'll be always exceptions there, but that really drives it.

我的意思是，總會有例外，但這確實推動了它。

Also bear in mind that this business is extremely global.

另請記住，這項業務非常全球化。

And we look at the end market with the lens of US, which we offset here, and that's what we observe.

我們用美國的視角來看待終端市場，我們在這裡抵消了這一點，這就是我們所觀察到的。

But this business has a strong presence in Germany.

但該業務在德國擁有強大的影響力。

This business has a strong presence in China.

該業務在中國擁有強大的影響力。

And we cannot ignore some of the economic dynamics going in those parts of the world.

我們不能忽視世界這些地區正在發生的一些經濟動態。

And when you have material revenue there, it's certainly having its own impact.

當你在那裡獲得物質收入時，它肯定會產生自己的影響。

So I would say that the one liner for that is we are just shaping up with the market.

所以我想說的是，我們只是在適應市場。

Looking ahead, I would say, 2025, there are two headwinds we have -- or '24 -- are behind us, which makes me believe very, very strongly that industrial automation will grow in 2025.

展望未來，我想說，到 2025 年，我們面臨的兩個逆風（或 24 年）已經過去，這讓我非常非常堅信工業自動化將在 2025 年實現成長。

The first headwind will be gone as the [rebase] signing of Intelligrated volumes, business volume.

隨著 Intelligated 數量、業務量的 [rebase] 簽署，第一個阻力將會消失。

We had mentioned in one of the earlier calls, it will be around $1 billion.

我們在之前的一次電話會議中提到，這將是 10 億美元左右。

That's where it is shaping up.

這就是它正在形成的地方。

So we don't have that headwind.

所以我們沒有那種逆風。

We do believe we can sustain that volume looking ahead in 2025.

我們確實相信，展望 2025 年，我們能夠維持這一銷量。

And we had three-fourths of the royalty from Zebra in our numbers in 2024, which won't appear in 2025.

到 2024 年，我們的資料中有四分之三來自 Zebra 的版稅，但到 2025 年就不會出現了。

So from a comp perspective, it -- let me correct that.

因此，從比較的角度來看，讓我糾正這一點。

We have only one quarter of this year.

今年我們只有四分之一的時間。

So from a comp perspective, it's a small number.

因此，從比較的角度來看，這是一個很小的數字。

So in 2025, we don't have to deal with that, too.

所以到 2025 年，我們也不必處理這個問題。

So those going away and markets normalizing to a certain degree, even they remain constant, we are still going to grow.

因此，那些消失和市場在某種程度上正常化，即使它們保持不變，我們仍然會成長。

At a very normalized market today, we do expect a positive performance in that business in 2025.

在當今非常正常化的市場中，我們確實預計該業務將在 2025 年取得積極的業績。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies.

希拉·卡哈奧格魯，杰弗里斯。

Thank you so much, guys, and good morning.

非常感謝你們，夥伴們，早安。

Going back to your aerospace, and Greg, (inaudible) if you can talk about -- can you tell us what the rate was in Q3?

回到你的航空航太領域，格雷格（聽不清楚）如果你能談談——你能告訴我們第三季的比率是多少嗎？

How you think about it in Q4?

您對第四季的情況有何看法？

And deceleration Q3 to Q4, is that -- that's not a change in the Max?

Q3 到 Q4 的減速度，這不是 Max 的變化嗎？

Is it just the supplier that just popped up?

難道只是剛出現的供應商嗎？

Sorry, Sheila.

對不起，希拉。

I think you broke up for a second.

我想你們分手了一秒鐘。

Would you mind restating the question?

您介意重述一下這個問題嗎？

Sorry about that.

對此感到抱歉。

So just on the Max, can you give us an idea where you are on Max in Q3 versus Q4?

那麼就 Max 而言，您能否告訴我們您在第三季與第四季的 Max 方面處於什麼位置？

And if it is unchanged, what results in the Q3 to Q4 margin deceleration of about 250 bps going to around 25%?

如果保持不變，是什麼導致第三季到第四季的利潤率減速約 250 個基點，降至 25% 左右？

Yeah.

是的。

So the Q2 -- I will answer the second question.

那麼問題 2——我將回答第二個問題。

The margins, Q3 to Q4, is just the drivers of the OE shipments.

第三季到第四季的利潤率只是原廠出貨量的驅動因素。

So some of the discrete manufacturing disruption in -- what we had in Q3 ended up having directly lower OE volume, which helped us in terms of the mix.

因此，我們在第三季所經歷的一些離散製造中斷最終導致了原配設備數量的直接下降，這對我們的產品組合有所幫助。

And that drove the margin in Q3.

這推動了第三季的利潤率。

So as those supply chain disruptions are getting released in Q4, those shipments are going to occur, which again pushes the margins to a different trajectory.

因此，隨著供應鏈中斷在第四季度得到緩解，這些出貨量將會發生，這再次將利潤率推向不同的軌道。

So I think that's a fundamental shift there.

所以我認為這是一個根本性的轉變。

I think our comments on the Boeing situation is just that their demand on us has not gone down demonstrably from what it had been previously.

我認為我們對波音情況的評論只是他們對我們的要求並沒有比以前明顯下降。

Doesn't mean there's not some disruption in our ability to ship in Q3 versus Q4.

這並不意味著我們第三季的出貨能力與第四季相比沒有受到任何干擾。

We definitely had that challenge, but the demand on us has not changed meaningfully from Boeing.

我們確實面臨這樣的挑戰，但波音對我們的需求並沒有有意義的改變。

The last point I would add is just to say that 3Q is better than we would have thought on the margin given that mix.

我要補充的最後一點只是想說，考慮到這種組合，第三季的利潤比我們想像的要好。

And then there's some reversion in fourth quarter.

然後第四季出現一些逆轉。

So overall, the full year is really unchanged when we communicated previously.

所以整體來說，我們之前溝通的時候，全年確實沒有變化。

It's just what goes in which quarter.

這只是哪個季度發生的事情。

Got it.

知道了。

And then, hopefully, you could hear me on the commercial aftermarket.

然後，希望你能聽到我關於商業售後市場的聲音。

In Q3, it lagged a bit, 8%.

第三季度，略有落後，為 8%。

Maybe we just modeled it wrong.

也許我們只是建模錯誤。

But it seems like it was mostly BGA.

但看起來大部分都是BGA。

So when you think about aftermarket being the growth leader in Q4, is that in double digit in ATR?

那麼，當您認為售後市場是第四季度的成長領頭羊時，ATR 是否達到兩位數？

Any color there?

那裡有什麼顏色嗎？

Or is it BGA picking up again?

還是BGA又回暖了？

In aftermarket.

在售後市場。

Yeah.

是的。

The aftermarket will be stronger in ATR than BGA.

ATR的售後市場會比BGA更強。

That's going to continue to be that way for some period of time.

這種情況將持續一段時間。

Got it.

知道了。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thanks, Sheila.

謝謝，希拉。

Deane Dray, RBC Capital Markets.

迪恩德雷 (Deane Dray)，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

Hey, Deane.

嘿，迪恩。

I think it was just about a year ago that you did the resegmentation.

我認為大約一年前您才進行了重新細分。

And one of the outcomes was you identified that there was roughly 10% of revenues that would be divested, maybe half of them chunky, others kind of very small below the radar screen.

結果之一是你發現大約有 10% 的收入將被剝離，其中可能有一半是大塊的，其他的則非常小，在雷達螢幕以下。

So does PPE -- would that be part of it?

那麼個人防護裝備（PPE）也會成為其中的一部分嗎？

And I would trust advanced materials is not part of that 10%.

我相信先進材料不屬於那 10%。

So just -- what's that pipeline look like?

那麼，管道是什麼樣子的呢？

Yeah.

是的。

So Deane, when I announced it last year this time, it was an initial view of the portfolio, which had less fit relative to the three megatrends.

所以迪恩，當我去年這次宣布這一消息時，這是對投資組合的初步看法，相對於三大趨勢來說不太合適。

There were portions of advanced materials which were part of it.

其中有部分先進材料。

But when we did the work, the shareholder value was much higher for the whole spin versus the smaller part, which make us this decision of announcing the spin a few weeks back.

但當我們完成這項工作時，整個分拆的股東價值比較小部分要高得多，這使我們決定在幾週前宣布分拆。

So that was definitely part of the parameter and a smaller scope but ended up being big.

所以這絕對是參數的一部分，範圍較小，但最終卻很大。

PPE was part of that scope.

個人防護裝備（PPE）屬於該範圍的一部分。

So I would say on a broader strategy basis, we are directionally done for the near term.

因此，我想說，在更廣泛的策略基礎上，我們近期的目標是定向完成。

But portfolio work is never complete.

但作品集的工作永遠不會完成。

We constantly want to look at what else is a (inaudible) Honeywell now, even though everything fits into either future of aviation, energy transition, or automation.

我們一直想看看現在還有什麼是（聽不清楚）霍尼韋爾，儘管一切都適合航空、能源轉型或自動化的未來。

Another question I'm asking is relative to the growth rates and margin expansion runway and vertical fit, and things of that nature.

我要問的另一個問題是相對於成長率、利潤擴張跑道和垂直配合以及類似性質的事情。

And we'll constantly make our portfolio -- active portfolio management as part of our operating system.

我們將持續將我們的投資組合—積極的投資組合管理作為我們作業系統的一部分。

We have a lot of balance sheet capacity.

我們有大量的資產負債表容量。

So we certainly want to use that and embrace that to the benefit of building a better business.

因此，我們當然希望利用它並擁抱它，以建立更好的業務。

So those are some of the comments I will offer you.

這些是我將為您提供的一些評論。

What would be the timeframe for other divestitures?

其他資產剝離的時間表是什麼？

I wouldn't say -- I won't put a specific timeline here.

我不會說——我不會在這裡給出具體的時間表。

I would say that we want to be a prudent utilization of our balance sheet capability.

我想說的是，我們希望謹慎利用我們的資產負債表能力。

And the events will be more determined by the opportunity set of acquisitions.

而這些事件將更取決於收購的機會集。

And similarly, the fit is less.

同樣，擬合度也較低。

We need to get convicted.

我們需要被定罪。

We have to do that work and then really start working on some of the possible portfolio actions there.

我們必須完成這項工作，然後真正開始研究一些可能的投資組合行動。

So there's nothing new definitive which we are working on.

因此，我們正在研究的內容並沒有什麼新的確定性內容。

But you'll never say never because this is a constant activity.

但你永遠不會說永遠，因為這是一項持續的活動。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Joe Ritchie, Goldman Sachs.

喬·里奇，高盛。

Hey, good morning, guys.

嘿，早上好，夥計們。

I may have missed it, but can you please elaborate on the project delays that you're experiencing in both process solutions and

我可能錯過了，但是您能否詳細說明您在流程解決方案和

(inaudible)?

（聽不清楚）？

So what are the root causes, and then how do you see that rectifying going forward?

那麼根本原因是什麼？

So Joe, I would say the conversion rates, typically, we see -- we end up doing approximately 50% of our revenue in month three of every quarter.

所以喬，我想說的是，我們通常看到的轉換率 - 我們最終在每個季度的第三個月完成了大約 50% 的收入。

And we have a well-proven run rate of conversion of smaller projects, both in process solutions and smaller catalyst shipments.

我們在製程解決方案和較小的催化劑出貨方面都擁有經過充分驗證的小型專案轉化率。

And that's what really didn't occur on the normal run rate in Q3.

而這在第三季的正常運作率上確實沒有發生。

So that's what we observed for the first time that pushouts are happening at this point of time.

這就是我們第一次觀察到此時發生了推出。

At the same time -- I will also give you another data point -- UOP had a historic high in its history order booking in the same quarter, $1 billion, which are large new projects.

同時——我還要提供給大家另一個數據——UOP同一季度的歷史訂單預訂量創歷史新高，達到10億美元，這是大型新項目。

People have committed investments for new process technology on new equipment.

人們致力於投資新設備上的新製程技術。

So those are the dynamics going on.

這些就是正在發生的動態。

The long-cycle commitment continue to hold.

長週期承諾繼續有效。

The short-cycle pushouts are also occurring at the same time.

短週期推出也同時發生。

And we have factored that into our Q4 earnings forecast now that we expect that some of those project pushouts will continue to occur (inaudible) stability.

我們已將這一點納入我們的第四季度收益預測中，因為我們預計其中一些項目的推出將繼續保持（聽不清楚）穩定性。

And probably, the root cause of that -- I would ascertain that to two factors.

也許，其根本原因是──我將確定為兩個因素。

I would say there's a lot of uncertainty in Middle East due to war situation and oil price fluctuations we all observe there.

我想說，由於我們都觀察到的戰爭局勢和油價波動，中東存在著許多不確定性。

And we all are equally awaiting on outcome of US elections.

我們都同樣等待美國大選的結果。

So I think that uncertainty causes making any moderate investment also a bit of a consideration for our customers.

因此，我認為不確定性導致任何適度的投資也成為我們客戶的考慮因素。

And that's driving the pushout.

這就是推動退出的原因。

And we do expect, as things settle, some of these should come back to the normal case ahead.

我們確實預計，隨著事情的解決，其中一些應該會回到正常情況。

Got it.

知道了。

That's helpful.

這很有幫助。

So mostly, this is basically exogenous factors, not anything internal that's impacting.

所以大多數情況下，這基本上是外生因素，而不是任何內在影響。

Okay.

好的。

And then I guess maybe -- yeah.

然後我想也許——是的。

And then the second question is just, look, the defense business has been, I think, double digits now for four out of the last five quarters and recognize that you're benefiting from the fact that supply chain is normalizing.

然後第二個問題是，我認為，國防業務在過去五個季度中有四個季度實現了兩位數成長，並且認識到您正在從供應鏈正常化的事實中受益。

I guess, how do we think about that into 2025?

我想，到 2025 年我們會如何看待這個問題？

Is this a business just based on the normalization of the supply chain, it should continue to see this level of growth, call it, high single digits to double-digit type growth into next year?

這是一個僅基於供應鏈正常化的業務嗎？

I do believe that.

我確實相信這一點。

I think our order books there are strong in defense.

我認為我們的訂單簿具有很強的防禦能力。

And in fact, demand remains very strong.

事實上，需求仍然非常強勁。

We have demonstrated now, for two quarters in a row, our ability to take supply chain actions, specifically to the defense supply chain.

我們現在已經連續兩個季度展示了我們採取供應鏈行動的能力，特別是針對國防供應鏈。

And we do expect to maintain this momentum in 2025.

我們確實預計 2025 年將保持這一勢頭。

It will remain the headline for aerospace growth, specifically not only the core business and even always own.

它將仍然是航空航太成長的頭條新聞，特別是不僅是核心業務，甚至是始終擁有的業務。

But with the acquisition of CAES, which is the entirely service defense segment, our near-term mix of defense is going to go up.

但隨著收購 CAES（完全是軍種防禦領域），我們的近期防禦組合將會上升。

And growth rates are going to be at, I would say, relatively elevated rate compared to the core aerospace business.

我想說，與核心航空航天業務相比，成長率將相對較高。

Hey, great.

嘿，太棒了。

Thank you very much.

非常感謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Andy Kaplowitz, Citigroup.

安迪‧卡普洛維茨，花旗集團。

Hey, good morning, everyone.

嘿，大家早安。

Vim, I know you've talked about accelerating new products now and evolving the accelerated operating system.

Vim，我知道您現在談到了加速新產品和發展加速作業系統。

How much could that accelerating or maybe the focus on what good looks like across your portfolio help in '25 versus '24?

在 25 世紀與 24 世紀，這種加速或對你的投資組合中的美好事物的關注有多大幫助？

Would you anticipate a material step-up in core growth from your initiatives, even if markets maybe stay a little muted -- more muted than expected outside of aero?

您是否預期您的舉措會帶來核心成長的實質提升，即使市場可能會保持一點平靜—比航空領域以外的預期更加平靜？

Yeah.

是的。

I think short answer is yes, Andy.

我想簡短的回答是肯定的，安迪。

We have done work, and we really track what I call new product category.

我們已經完成了工作，並且真正追蹤了我所說的新產品類別。

So fundamentally, what we have bought our operating system is think about the product as core products, which we always have, and refreshing them.

所以從根本上來說，我們購買作業系統的目的是將該產品視為我們一直擁有的核心產品，並對其進行更新。

Because we have to keep share, you can't keep them stale; and then adding new product categories, which we don't have today.

因為我們必須保持共享，所以你不能讓它們陳舊；然後添加新的產品類別，這是我們今天沒有的。

Those SKU numbers don't exist in our ERP system.

我們的 ERP 系統中不存在這些 SKU 編號。

And those products which are being lodged in '24 or early '25 are going to be a larger number compared to what we had in '24 run rate.

與 24 年運行率相比，那些在 24 年或 25 年初提交的產品數量將會更多。

So that does give me a confidence that that's going to act as an enabler for us to deliver our growth in 2025.

因此，這確實讓我有信心，這將成為我們在 2025 年實現成長的推動因素。

Specifics we'll share when we do the earnings call.

我們將在召開財報電話會議時分享具體細節。

But fundamentals do look attractive on that space.

但該領域的基本面看起來確實很有吸引力。

Got it.

知道了。

And then maybe just a little more color on what you're seeing in terms of the landscape by geography.

然後，也許你所看到的地理景觀會有更多的色彩。

It's interesting to see that buildings products has started to improve.

有趣的是，建築產品已經開始改進。

Is that a function of European building products getting any better?

這是歐洲建築產品的功能變得更好了嗎？

And I know you mentioned some macro headwinds in China, obviously.

我知道你顯然提到了中國的一些宏觀阻力。

So what are you seeing out there?

那你在外面看到了什麼？

I would say, in pockets, we -- I mean, if you call specifically on the buildings business, we did observe a good recovery in Europe in our short-cycle businesses in building automation.

我想說，在口袋裡，我們——我的意思是，如果你特別關注樓宇業務，我們確實觀察到歐洲樓宇自動化短週期業務的良好復甦。

I would say we have crossed the trough in Europe, and we are on a moderate recovery there.

我想說，我們已經跨越了歐洲的低谷，並且正在溫和復甦。

We certainly see that.

我們當然看到了這一點。

In China, I would say that's not true.

在中國，我想說這不是真的。

Honeywell continues to be in mid- to high single.

霍尼韋爾繼續處於中高位。

We have said that before.

我們之前已經說過了。

We will perform well in China, thanks to our aerospace and energy segment.

由於我們的航空航太和能源業務，我們將在中國表現出色。

But our automation businesses are flat to slight contraction.

但我們的自動化業務卻持平甚至略有收縮。

We are not observing any change in trajectory, which then get reflected on the performance there.

我們沒有觀察到軌跡有任何變化，這些變化隨後會反映在那裡的表現。

So some pockets of recovery in Europe, not so much in China.

因此，歐洲出現了一些復甦，但中國的復甦幅度不大。

And headline of our growth, which we mentioned in our prepared remarks also, we do see strong growth in India and Saudi Arabia.

我們在準備好的發言中也提到了我們成長的主要內容，我們確實看到印度和沙烏地阿拉伯的強勁成長。

Those two countries are becoming catalysts of our growth.

這兩個國家正在成為我們成長的催化劑。

We have a moderate amount of revenue there.

我們在那裡有適度的收入。

So certainly, double-digit revenue growth certainly helps on our top line.

因此，兩位數的收入成長肯定有助於我們的營收成長。

Appreciate all the color.

欣賞所有的顏色。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This concludes our question-and-answer session.

我們的問答環節到此結束。

Mr. Kapur, I'll turn the floor back to you for any final comments.

卡普爾先生，我將把最後的意見轉回給您。

I want to express my thanks to our shareholders for your support and to the Honeywell future shaper, who will help us to achieve our accelerated growth goals.

我要向股東的支持和霍尼韋爾未來塑造者表示感謝，他們將幫助我們實現加速成長的目標。

I believe our future is bright, and we look forward to updating you on the progress.

我相信我們的未來是光明的，我們期待向您通報最新進展。

Thank you for listening, and please stay safe and healthy.

感謝您的聆聽，請保持安全與健康。

Thank you.

謝謝。

This concludes today's conference call.

今天的電話會議到此結束。

You may disconnect your lines at this time.

此時您可以斷開線路。

Thank you for your participation.

感謝您的參與。