漢威聯合 (HON) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Honeywell Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) Please be advised that today's call is being recorded.

感謝您的耐心等待，歡迎參加霍尼韋爾 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）請注意，今天的通話正在錄音。

I would now like to hand the call over to Sean Meakim, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

我現在想將電話轉給投資者關係副總裁 Sean Meakim。請繼續。

Thank you, Camilla. Good morning, and welcome to Honeywell's Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings and 2024 Outlook Conference Call. On the call with me today are Chief Executive Officer, Vimal Kapur; and Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Greg Lewis.

謝謝你，卡米拉。早安，歡迎參加霍尼韋爾 2023 年第四季財報和 2024 年展望電話會議。今天與我通話的是執行長 Vimal Kapur；資深副總裁兼財務長 Greg Lewis。

This webcast and the presentation materials, including non-GAAP reconciliations, are available on our Investor Relations website. From time to time, we post new information that may be of interest or material to our investors on this website. Our discussion today includes forward-looking statements that are based on our best view of the world and of our businesses as we see them today and are subject to risks and uncertainties, including the ones described in our SEC filings.

此網路廣播和簡報資料（包括非公認會計原則調節表）可在我們的投資者關係網站上取得。我們會不時在本網站上發布投資者可能感興趣或重要的新資訊。我們今天的討論包括前瞻性陳述，這些陳述基於我們對世界和我們今天所看到的業務的最佳看法，並受到風險和不確定性的影響，包括我們在SEC 文件中描述的風險和不確定性。

This morning, we will review our financial results for the fourth quarter and full year '23, discuss our outlook for the year and share our guidance for the first quarter and full year 2024. As always, we'll leave time for your questions at the end.

今天早上，我們將回顧23 年第四季和全年的財務業績，討論我們對今年的展望，並分享我們對2024 年第一季和全年的指導。與往常一樣，我們將留出時間回答您的問題：結束。

With that, I'll turn the call over to CEO, Vimal Kapur.

接下來，我會將電話轉給執行長 Vimal Kapur。

Thank you, Sean, and good morning, everyone. To start, I would like to acknowledge some important leadership changes announced this morning. First, Honeywell's Board of Directors has elected me to take on additional role of Chairman, when our current Executive Chairman, Darius Adamczyk, retires from the Board in June. Additionally, Bill Ayer has been elected to succeed Scott Davis as Independent Lead Director of the Board effective this May.

謝謝肖恩，大家早安。首先，我要感謝今天早上宣布的一些重要的領導層變動。首先，當我們現任執行主席 Darius Adamczyk 於 6 月從董事會退休時，霍尼韋爾董事會選舉我擔任董事長的額外職位。此外，Bill Ayer 已被選為接替 Scott Davis 的董事會獨立首席董事，將於今年 5 月生效。

First, I want to thank Darius for his innumerable contribution to Honeywell as well as his mentorship over the past 2 years, in particular. I would also like to thank Scott for his insights over the past 4 years as Independent Director and Leadership towards the CEO succession process. Congratulations to Bill for his appointment as a new Lead Director. I look forward to partnering with him in achieving Honeywell's strategic growth initiatives.

首先，我要感謝 Darius 對霍尼韋爾的無數貢獻，特別是他在過去兩年中的指導。我還要感謝史考特在過去 4 年擔任獨立董事和領導執行長繼任過程中所提供的見解。恭喜比爾被任命為新的首席董事。我期待與他合作實現霍尼韋爾的策略成長計劃。

Lastly, I would like to thank Darius and the Board for their support in naming me Chairman. I'm humbled and honored to lead this great company, and wake up every day energized to take on world's toughest challenges, along with our 100,000 future shapers.

最後，我要感謝 Darius 和董事會對任命我為主席的支持。我很榮幸能夠領導這家偉大的公司，每天醒來都充滿活力，與我們的 100,000 名未來塑造者一起應對世界上最嚴峻的挑戰。

Now let's turn to the main topic of today and discussion on Slide 3. We had a solid finish to another challenging year, delivering on our 2023 commitments. Honeywell's world-class accelerator operating system and differentiated portfolio of technologies enabled us to achieve our initial full year guidance for organic growth, adjusted earnings per share and free cash flow and surpassed the high end of our original guidance for segment margin expansion.

現在讓我們轉向今天的主題和幻燈片 3 的討論。我們以紮實的方式結束了另一個充滿挑戰的一年，兌現了 2023 年的承諾。霍尼韋爾世界一流的加速器操作系統和差異化的技術組合使我們能夠實現最初的全年有機增長、調整後每股收益和自由現金流指導，並超過了我們最初的部門利潤率擴張指導的上限。

Full year's organic growth of 4% year-on-year was a strong demonstration of resiliency by our long-cycle Aerospace and energy-oriented businesses, while we await acceleration in some of our short cycle businesses, as markets continue to normalize.

全年同比 4% 的有機成長有力地證明了我們的長週期航空航太和能源業務的彈性，而隨著市場繼續正常化，我們正在等待一些短週期業務的加速發展。

Before we get into a more detailed discussion on 2023 results and 2024 outlook, expectations, let me take a minute to revisit my priorities for Honeywell. First, our aim is to deliver the upper end of our long-term organic sales growth target range of 4% to 7%. In order to achieve that, we are enhancing our innovation playbook, accelerating our offering in sustainability and software, monetizing our installed base and leveraging our leadership position in high-growth regions.

在我們更詳細地討論 2023 年業績和 2024 年展望、期望之前，讓我花一點時間回顧一下我對霍尼韋爾的優先事項。首先，我們的目標是實現 4% 至 7% 的長期有機銷售成長目標範圍的上限。為了實現這一目標，我們正在增強我們的創新策略，加速我們在永續發展和軟體方面的產品，將我們的安裝基礎貨幣化，並利用我們在高成長地區的領導地位。

Second, over the last 6 years, the effort of the great integration have transformed Honeywell into an integrated operating company that deploys world-class capability at scale and multiple growth enablers that benefit the entire enterprise. We are evolving Honeywell Accelerator version 3.0 of our operating system to drive further value through standardization by business model, based on our contemporary digital backbone. In addition to making this organization simple and more efficient to operate, Accelerator is a powerful source of profitable growth, all of our businesses and potential addition to our portfolio.

其次，在過去的六年裡，大整合的努力使霍尼韋爾成為一家綜合營運公司，大規模部署世界一流的能力和多種使整個企業受益的成長動力。我們正在改進操作系統的 Honeywell Accelerator 3.0 版本，以基於我們當代數位骨幹的業務模型標準化來推動進一步價值。除了使該組織的運作變得簡單、更有效率之外，加速器也是獲利成長、我們所有業務以及我們投資組合的潛在補充的強大來源。

Third, we continue to evaluate and undertake actions to optimize our portfolio. We'll do so by executing on strategic bolt-on acquisitions, while divesting non-core lines of business to consistently upgrade the quality of the portfolio and accelerate value creation. This is a powerful combination, which delivers profitable growth and strong cash generation, creating a compelling long-term value proposition for our share owners.

第三，我們繼續評估並採取行動來優化我們的投資組合。我們將透過執行策略性補強收購來實現這一目標，同時剝離非核心業務線，以持續提升投資組合的品質並加速價值創造。這是一個強大的組合，可實現盈利成長和強勁的現金生成，為我們的股東創造令人信服的長期價值主張。

Now let's turn to Slide 4 to discuss our progress on portfolio shaping goals. In the fourth quarter, we announced the acquisition of Carrier's Global Access Solutions business for nearly $5 billion, enabling Honeywell to become a leader in security solution for the digital age. This transaction, which is clearly in line with our strategic bolt-on M&A framework, further enhances our equipment agnostic, high-margin product business mix within building automation. Honeywell's overall security portfolio will be more than $1 billion in sales on the deal closes this year, growing at accretive rate to support Honeywell's long-term growth framework.

現在讓我們轉向投影片 4 來討論我們在投資組合塑造目標方面的進展。第四季度，我們宣布以近50億美元收購開利全球接入解決方案業務，使霍尼韋爾成為數位時代安全解決方案的領導者。這項交易顯然符合我們的策略性補充併購框架，進一步增強了我們在建築自動化領域與設備無關的高利潤產品業務組合。今年交易完成後，霍尼韋爾的整體安全產品組合銷售額將超過 10 億美元，並以遞增的速度成長，以支持霍尼韋爾的長期成長框架。

In addition, earlier in January, Quantinuum announced its first equity raise since the merger of Honeywell Quantum Solutions and Cambridge Quantum Computing in late 2021, securing $300 million at a pre-money valuation of $5 billion, demonstrating Quantinuum's leading position on fault-tolerant quantum computing.

此外，1月初，Quantinuum宣布自2021年底霍尼韋爾量子解決方案與劍橋量子計算合併以來首次股權融資，以50億美元的投前估值獲得3億美元融資，彰顯了Quantinuum在容錯量子領域的領先地位計算。

The round was anchored by Quantinuum's strategic partner, JPMorgan Chase, with additional participation from Mitsui & Company, Amgen and Honeywell. This investment brings the total capital raised by Quantinuum since inception to approximately $625 million. Quantum computing is a key enabler for AI to reach a scale potential, and Quantinuum is a pioneering key breakthrough and expanding use cases across a number of industries. Honeywell remains a majority owner with over 50% equity ownership, and we are committed to demonstrating a path to monetization of our stake within the next 18 months.

此輪融資由 Quantinuum 的策略夥伴摩根大通牽頭，三井物產公司、安進公司和霍尼韋爾也參與其中。這項投資使 Quantinuum 自成立以來籌集的總資金達到約 6.25 億美元。量子運算是人工智慧發揮規模潛力的關鍵推動因素，而 Quantinuum 是一項開創性的關鍵突破，並在多個行業中擴展了用例。霍尼韋爾仍然是大股東，擁有超過 50% 的股權，我們致力於在未來 18 個月內展示我們股份貨幣化的途徑。

With the recent portfolio announcement, we are on a track to accelerate capital deployment and exceed our commitment to deploy at least $25 billion of capital in 2023 through 2025, with a bias towards high value accretive M&A. Our balance sheet spend continues to give us meaningful capacity for both opportunistic share repurchases and M&A and the ongoing relatively favorable environment in 2024 will support the execution of our M&A strategy on a consistent basis.

隨著最近的投資組合公告，我們有望加速資本部署，並超越我們在 2023 年至 2025 年部署至少 250 億美元資本的承諾，並偏向高價值增值併購。我們的資產負債表支出繼續為我們提供機會性股票回購和併購的有意義的能力，並且 2024 年持續相對有利的環境將支持我們持續執行併購策略。

Before I hand over to Greg, let me turn to Slide 5 to review some of our recent exciting wins. Let me briefly highlight some of our recent commercial proof points. These wins demonstrate innovation across our portfolio and support Honeywell's recently announced plans to align its portfolio to 3 compelling mega trends: automation, future of aviation and energy transition, all underpinned by robust digitalization capability and solutions.

在交給 Greg 之前，讓我先翻到幻燈片 5 來回顧我們最近取得的一些激動人心的勝利。讓我簡單強調一下我們最近的一些商業證據。這些勝利展示了我們產品組合的創新，並支持霍尼韋爾最近宣布的計劃，使其產品組合符合三大引人注目的大趨勢：自動化、航空業的未來和能源轉型，所有這些都以強大的數位化能力和解決方案為基礎。

In Aero, we secured over $1 billion in new avionics and mechanical wins directly with airline carriers in 2023, representing over 2,500 aircrafts. With a strong start to 2024, United chose Honeywell to provide a wide range of advanced avionics for close to 350 aircrafts that will enter into service over the next decade. This win is another encouraging demand signal and demonstrate the strength of our offering in the marketplace.

在航空領域，我們在 2023 年直接與航空公司簽訂了超過 10 億美元的新航空電子設備和機械訂單，涉及 2,500 多架飛機。憑藉 2024 年的強勁開局，美聯航選擇霍尼韋爾為近 350 架飛機提供廣泛的先進航空電子設備，這些飛機將在未來十年投入使用。這次勝利是另一個令人鼓舞的需求訊號，並展示了我們在市場上提供的產品的實力。

In energy space, our battery energy solar solution will be deployed to 6 solar parks in U.S. Virgin Islands. When completed, our automation solution will boost the island's decarbonization effort by fulfilling 30% of the energy need through renewable sources, lowering both emission and consumer energy cost. We remain excited about our sustainable solutions portfolio, and Honeywell's position at the forefront of world's ongoing energy transition.

在能源領域，我們的電池能源太陽能解決方案將部署到美屬維京群島的6個太陽能園區。完成後，我們的自動化解決方案將透過再生能源滿足 30% 的能源需求，從而降低排放和消費者能源成本，從而促進島上的脫碳工作。我們對我們的永續解決方案組合以及霍尼韋爾在世界持續能源轉型中的領先地位仍然感到興奮。

Finally, we'll be incorporating our hydrogen purification and carbon capture technologies into a multibillion dollar low-carbon ammonia projects. To this, up to 97% of the plant's carbon dioxide emission can be sequestered, and the project will remove up to 7 million tons of CO2 pollution over per year. This project is yet another example of Honeywell's ability to help solve our customers' tougher challenges and a sign of what to come for our energy and sustainability solutions business.

最後，我們將把我們的氫氣純化和碳捕獲技術納入價值數十億美元的低碳氨計畫。至此，該廠高達97%的二氧化碳排放量可被封存，該計畫每年將消除多達700萬噸二氧化碳污染。該專案是霍尼韋爾有能力幫助客戶解決更嚴峻挑戰的另一個例子，也是我們能源和永續發展解決方案業務未來發展的一個標誌。

Now let me turn it over to Greg on Slide 6 to discuss our fourth quarter and full year 2023 results in more detail and also provide guidance for 2024.

現在讓我將投影片 6 上的內容交給 Greg，更詳細地討論我們第四季和 2023 年全年的業績，並提供 2024 年的指導。

Thank you, Vimal, and good morning, everyone. Let me begin on Slide 6. As a reminder, we're reporting fourth quarter and full year 2023 results under our legacy segment breakdown and providing our 2024 outlook using the new segment structure, which went into effect in January.

謝謝你，Vimal，大家早安。讓我從投影片 6 開始。提醒一下，我們將根據傳統部門細分報告第四季和 2023 年全年業績，並使用 1 月生效的新部門結構提供 2024 年展望。

With that, let's turn to the results. We had a strong finish to another challenging year, delivering on our 2023 commitments. Despite a dynamic macro backdrop, Honeywell's disciplined execution and differentiated solutions enabled us to deliver on our full year organic sales, segment margin, earnings and free cash flow commitments.

接下來，讓我們看看結果。我們兌現了 2023 年的承諾，圓滿結束了充滿挑戰的一年。儘管宏觀背景不斷變化，霍尼韋爾嚴謹的執行力和差異化的解決方案使我們能夠實現全年有機銷售額、部門利潤、盈利和自由現金流承諾。

Full year organic sales were up 4% year-over-year, achieving the low end of our long-term financial growth algorithm and be in the midpoint of our initial guidance despite a 5% drag from lower Safety and Productivity Solutions sales. Segment profit grew 8% year-over-year, with segment margin expansion of 100 basis points to 22.7%, above our long-term annual expansion target of 40 to 60 basis points and 10 basis points above the high end of our initial guidance. Adjusted earnings per share grew 5%, or 11% when excluding the impact of lower noncash pension income year-over-year. We generated free cash flow of $4.3 billion at the high end of our guidance range, or $5.3 billion, excluding the after-tax impact of onetime settlements.

儘管安全和生產力解決方案銷售額下降導致 5% 的拖累，但全年有機銷售額同比增長 4%，達到了我們長期財務增長演算法的低端，並且處於我們初始指引的中點。部門利潤年增 8%，部門利潤率成長 100 個基點至 22.7%，高於我們 40 至 60 個基點的長期年度擴張目標，比我們最初指導的上限高出 10 個基點。調整後每股盈餘成長 5%，若排除非現金退休金收入下降的影響，則成長 11%。我們產生了 43 億美元的自由現金流，達到指導範圍的上限，即 53 億美元，不包括一次性和解的稅後影響。

We deployed $8.3 billion of capital, including $3.7 billion to share repurchases, $1 billion to CapEx, $700 million to M&A and $2.9 billion to dividend payouts, which we increased for the 14th time in the past 13 years. Fourth quarter organic sales were up 2%, led by the 11th consecutive quarter of double-digit growth in our commercial aerospace business. Segment margin expanded by 60 basis points to 23.5%, driven by expansion in Performance Materials and Technologies and Aerospace.

我們部署了83 億美元的資本，其中包括37 億美元用於股票回購、10 億美元用於資本支出、7 億美元用於併購以及29 億美元用於股息支付，這是我們在過去13 年中第14 次增加資本支出。第四季有機銷售額成長 2%，其中商業航空航太業務連續第 11 個季度實現兩位數成長。由於高性能材料和技術以及航空航天業務的擴張，該部門利潤率增長了 60 個基點，達到 23.5%。

Earnings per share for the fourth quarter was $1.91, up 26% year-over-year. And adjusted earnings per share was $2.60, up 3% year-over-year. An adjustment to our estimated future Bendex liability at the end of the year and our annual pension mark-to-market adjustment drove the difference between earnings per share and adjusted earnings per share.

第四季每股收益為1.91美元，較去年同期成長26%。調整後每股收益為 2.60 美元，年增 3%。我們對年底預計未來 Bendex 負債的調整以及我們的年度退休金按市值計算的調整推動了每股收益和調整後每股收益之間的差異。

Excluding a $0.13 noncash pension income headwind, adjusted earnings per share was up 8%. Bridges for adjusted EPS from both 4Q '22 to 4Q '23 and FY '22 to FY '23 can be found in the appendix of this presentation. Free cash flow was $2.6 billion, with free cash flow margin of 27.4% versus 23.1% in 4Q as working capital was a greater source of cash compared to the prior year. We deployed $2.6 billion of cash flow to share repurchases, dividends, high-return CapEx and M&A.

排除 0.13 美元的非現金退休金收入阻力，調整後每股盈餘成長 8%。從 22 年第 4 季到 23 年第 4 季以及 22 財年到 23 財年調整後每股收益的橋樑可以在本簡報的附錄中找到。自由現金流為 26 億美元，自由現金流利潤率為 27.4%，而第四季為 23.1%，因為與前一年相比，營運資金是更多的現金來源。我們部署了 26 億美元的現金流用於股票回購、股息、高回報資本支出和併購。

The fourth quarter was another strong win for our backlog, which grew to a new record of $31.8 billion, up 8% year-over-year and 1% sequentially due to strengths in Aero, PMT and HBT. Orders were up 1% in the quarter, led by growth in commercial Aero, PMT and HPT, including orders growth in building products. This setup gives us confidence in our 2024 outlook, which I will discuss in a few minutes.

第四季我們的積壓訂單再次取得強勁勝利，由於航空、PMT 和 HBT 領域的優勢，積壓訂單增長至 318 億美元的新紀錄，同比增長 8%，環比增長 1%。本季訂單成長 1%，其中商業航空、PMT 和 HPT 訂單成長帶動，其中包括建築產品訂單成長。這種設置讓我們對 2024 年的前景充滿信心，我將在幾分鐘內討論這一點。

As always, we continue to execute on our proven value creation framework, which is underpinned by our Accelerator operating system. I'm confident in the strength of our backlog, the tailwinds we're seeing across our long-cycle end markets and our ability to navigate a dynamic operating environment, which we have demonstrated year after year.

一如既往，我們繼續執行經過驗證的價值創造框架，該框架以我們的 Accelerator 作業系統為基礎。我對我們的積壓訂單的實力、我們在長週期終端市場看到的順風車以及我們駕馭動態營運環境的能力充滿信心，這些都是我們年復一年所證明的。

Now let's spend a few minutes on the fourth quarter performance by business. Aerospace for the fourth quarter was up 15% organically year-over-year, with 20% growth in commercial aviation. Our commercial original equipment business grew over 20% on increased deliveries to both Air Transport and Business & General Aviation customers.

現在讓我們花幾分鐘時間來了解第四季的業務表現。第四季航空航太業務年增 15%，其中商業航空成長 20%。由於向航空運輸以及商務和通用航空客戶交付的數量增加，我們的商用原始設備業務增加了 20% 以上。

Commercial aftermarket had another double-digit growth quarter, led by the strength in Air Transport market as increased flight hours continue to drive demand. Defense & Space sales grew again in the fourth quarter as the ongoing global focus on national security continues to drive robust demand while we continue to work through supply chain challenges, which govern that growth.

由於飛行時間的增加繼續推動需求，航空運輸市場的強勁帶動了商業售後市場另一個季度的兩位數成長。由於全球對國家安全的持續關注持續推動強勁的需求，同時我們繼續應對影響成長的供應鏈挑戰，國防與航太銷售額在第四季度再次成長。

Aerospace's book-to-bill of around 1 in the fourth quarter is more evidence that demand continues to outpace supply, an encouraging sign that as the supply chain unlocks, we're well situated to capitalize on our advantageous position in the market. Segment margin expanded 20 basis points to 28% as a result of commercial excellence and volume leverage, which were partially offset by cost inflation and mix pressure in our original equipment business.

航空航太第四季的訂單出貨比約為1，進一步證明需求繼續超過供應，這是一個令人鼓舞的跡象，表明隨著供應鏈的開放，我們已做好充分利用我們在市場中的優勢地位的準備。由於商業卓越和銷售槓桿，部門利潤率擴大了 20 個基點至 28%，但部分被我們原始設備業務的成本通膨和混合壓力所抵消。

Performance Materials and Technology sales grew 4% organically in the fourth quarter. Advanced materials was up 6%, returning to growth in the quarter, driven primarily by a double-digit increase in flooring products. In HPS, sales were up 4% organically, as we saw continued strength in life cycle solutions and services and smart energy. UOP sales grew 1% organically as a result of robust seasonal demand in petrochemical catalyst shipments, partially offset by lower volumes in gas processing.

第四季高性能材料和技術銷售額有機成長 4%。先進材料上漲 6%，本季恢復成長，主要受到地板產品兩位數成長的推動。在 HPS 領域，銷售額有機成長了 4%，因為我們看到生命週期解決方案和服務以及智慧能源持續強勁。由於石化催化劑出貨量旺盛的季節性需求，UOP 銷售額有機成長 1%，但部分被天然氣加工量下降所抵銷。

Our Sustainable Technology Solutions business finished the year with over 30% sales and orders growth in the fourth quarter. Orders for PMT grew across all 3 businesses. Segment margin expanded 200 basis points to 24% as a result of productivity actions, favorable business mix and commercial excellence net of inflation.

我們的永續技術解決方案業務第四季的銷售額和訂單成長超過 30%。所有 3 個業務部門的 PMT 訂單均有所成長。由於生產力提升行動、有利的業務組合以及扣除通貨膨脹因素後的商業卓越表現，部門利潤率擴大了 200 個基點，達到 24%。

Safety and Productivity Solutions sales decreased 24% organically in the quarter, primarily as a result of lower volumes in Warehouse and Workflow Solutions and productivity solutions and services. The projects portion of our Intelligrated business remains around trough levels as investments in Warehouse Automation continue to be subdued. However, our pipeline of new projects is robust, and we are committed to delivering innovative solutions to a widening array of customers in this market, positioning Honeywell to win in an eventual recovery.

本季安全和生產力解決方案銷售額有機下降 24%，主要是由於倉庫和工作流程解決方案以及生產力解決方案和服務銷售下降。由於倉庫自動化投資持續受到抑制，我們 Intelliglated 業務的專案部分仍處於低谷水平附近。然而，我們的新項目儲備充足，我們致力於為該市場中越來越多的客戶提供創新的解決方案，使霍尼韋爾能夠在最終的復甦中獲勝。

In our productivity solutions and service business, we continue to work through the effects of distributor destocking, but over 30% orders growth in the quarter provides some confidence that we are near the end of that cycle. Sensing and Safety Solutions remains relatively resilient despite short-cycle challenges in a few end markets. Segment margin and SPS contracted 290 basis points to 17.3% driven by lower volume leverage and cost inflation, partially offset by productivity actions and commercial excellence.

在我們的生產力解決方案和服務業務中，我們繼續努力應對分銷商去庫存的影響，但本季超過 30% 的訂單成長讓我們相信我們已接近該週期的結束。儘管一些終端市場面臨短週期挑戰，但感測和安全解決方案仍保持相對彈性。由於銷售槓桿率下降和成本通膨，部門利潤率和 SPS 收縮了 290 個基點，至 17.3%，但部分被生產力行動和商業卓越所抵消。

Building Technologies sales were down 1% organically, as growth in our long-cycle building solutions business was offset by modest declines in short-cycle building products. Solutions grew 6% in the quarter, led by high single-digit growth in Building Services, driven by strong execution and past-due backlog burndown. Orders were strong across the board in the fourth quarter as every business grew year-over-year. Segment margin contracted 90 basis points year-over-year to 23.9%, due to cost inflation and mix headwinds, partially offset by productivity actions and commercial excellence.

建築技術銷售額有機下降 1%，因為我們的長週期建築解決方案業務的成長被短週期建築產品的小幅下滑所抵消。解決方案在本季度增長了 6%，其中建築服務的高個位數增長帶動了強勁的執行力和逾期積壓的銷毀。第四季訂單全面強勁，各項業務均較去年同期成長。由於成本通膨和混合逆風，該部門利潤率同比收縮 90 個基點至 23.9%，但部分被生產力行動和商業卓越所抵消。

Growth across our portfolio was supported by another quarter of double-digit sales growth in Honeywell Connected Enterprise, which remains accretive to overall Honeywell. Our offerings in Connected Industrial, cyber, Connected Buildings, Life Sciences and Connected Aircraft, all grew by more than 20% year-over-year in the quarter. For the full year, HCE sales and profit both grew by double digits, which is an indicator of the power of our strong software franchise.

我們產品組合的成長得益於 Honeywell Connected Enterprise 又一個季度兩位數的銷售成長，這仍然為整個 Honeywell 帶來了成長。我們在互聯工業、網路、互聯建築、生命科學和互聯飛機方面的產品在本季度均同比增長了 20% 以上。全年，HCE 銷售額和利潤均實現兩位數成長，這表明了我們強大的軟體特許經營權的力量。

With 2023 now in the rear view, we're excited about Honeywell's favorable setup to accelerate growth in 2024. Let's turn to Slide 7 to talk about our outlook for the year. We expect the environment to remain dynamic, but the power of our Accelerator operating system enables us to move quickly and decisively to drive growth, protect margins, ensure liquidity and position ourselves well to deliver on our commitments, and I'm confident we'll do that again in 2024.

2023 年已成為過去，我們對霍尼韋爾在 2024 年加速成長的有利安排感到興奮。讓我們轉向幻燈片 7 來談談我們對這一年的展望。我們預計環境將保持動態，但我們的加速器操作系統的力量使我們能夠快速、果斷地採取行動，以推動增長、保護利潤、確保流動性並做好充分準備以兌現我們的承諾，我相信我們將2024 年再做一次。

Our end market exposures across Aerospace, Automation and Energy remain favorable, with continued commercial aviation fleet growth, higher defense investment, heightened focus on automation due to labor scarcity, intensifying energy demands and decarbonization goals and increased infrastructure spending. These compelling vertical tailwinds are underpinned by the ongoing demand for digitalization and our record level backlogs, which will support robust organic growth for the business.

我們在航空航太、自動化和能源領域的終端市場仍然有利，商業航空機隊持續成長、國防投資增加、勞動力短缺導致對自動化的高度關注、能源需求和脫碳目標的加劇以及基礎設施支出的增加。這些引人注目的垂直順風是由對數位化的持續需求和我們創紀錄的積壓訂單支撐的，這將支持業務的強勁有機成長。

This outlook is somewhat tempered by the uncertain timing of an eventual recovery in the short cycle as markets return to normalcy, which we see is the swing factor to our sales outcome for the year, but we're excited by the prospects of this reacceleration in the coming quarters.

隨著市場恢復正常，短期週期中最終復甦的不確定時間在一定程度上削弱了這一前景，我們認為這是我們今年銷售業績的搖擺因素，但我們對這種重新加速的前景感到興奮未來幾個季度。

Overall, we have a strong setup that will drive growth within our long-term financial framework for sales, margin, earnings and cash in 2024. Our robust balance sheet and strong cash generation will support accretive capital deployment. And while we're happy with our recently announced transaction, we will continue to build on our accretive M&A pipeline as we optimize the portfolio.

總體而言，我們擁有強大的基礎設施，將推動 2024 年銷售、利潤、收益和現金的長期財務框架內的成長。我們穩健的資產負債表和強勁的現金產生能力將支持增值資本部署。雖然我們對最近宣布的交易感到滿意，但我們將在優化投資組合的同時繼續擴大併購管道。

Now let's turn to Slide 8 to discuss how these dynamics come together for our 2024 guidance. Given the backdrop, in total for 2024, we expect sales of $38.1 billion to $38.9 billion, which represents an overall organic sales growth range of 4% to 6% for the year, with a greater balance between volume and price. Our guide anticipates some short-cycle recovery to begin in the second half of the year, albeit likely at different rates for our various end markets, creating a somewhat back half-weighted outlook.

現在，讓我們轉向投影片 8，討論這些動態如何整合到我們的 2024 年指引中。在此背景下，我們預計 2024 年總銷售額為 381 億美元至 389 億美元，這意味著全年整體有機銷售額增長範圍為 4% 至 6%，量價之間更加平衡。我們的指南預計，一些短週期復甦將在今年下半年開始，儘管我們各個終端市場的復甦速度可能不同，從而產生某種程度後半加權的前景。

Additionally, we remain keenly focused on new product innovation, maintaining our leadership position in high-growth regions, monetizing our vast installed base and strengthening our software franchise, which we expect to provide resiliency through the year. We also expect the aero supply chain to continue to improve gradually sequentially throughout the year as it did in 2023.

此外，我們仍然熱衷於新產品創新，保持我們在高成長地區的領導地位，將我們龐大的安裝基礎貨幣化，並加強我們的軟體特許經營權，我們預計這些特許經營權將在今年提供彈性。我們也預期航空供應鏈將全年繼續逐步改善，就像 2023 年一樣。

For the first quarter, we anticipate sales in the range of $8.9 billion to $9.2 billion, flat to up 3% organically. We expect our overall segment margin to expand 30 to 60 basis points next year, supported by improving business mix, continued price cost discipline and productivity actions, including our precision focus on reducing raw material costs. Similar to last year, we expect building automation margins to expand the most as we benefit from productivity actions and build on continued commercial excellence, followed by industrial automation and energy and sustainability solutions.

我們預計第一季銷售額將在 89 億美元至 92 億美元之間，有機成長 3%。我們預計，在改善業務組合、持續的價格成本控制和生產力行動（包括我們對降低原材料成本的精準關注）的支持下，明年我們的整體細分市場利潤率將擴大 30 至 60 個基點。與去年類似，我們預計樓宇自動化利潤率將擴大最多，因為我們受益於生產力行動並建立在持續的商業卓越之上，其次是工業自動化以及能源和永續發展解決方案。

For Aerospace, volume leverage will cover continued investment in our innovation platforms and in the supply chain to unlock volume, keeping our margin rate within a tight band of our recent levels, while enabling us to deliver robust year-over-year profit growth. For the first quarter, we expect overall segment margin in the range of 21.9% to 22.2%, down 10 to up 20 basis points year-over-year.

對於航空航太而言，銷售槓桿將包括對我們的創新平台和供應鏈的持續投資，以釋放銷量，將我們的利潤率保持在近期水平的狹窄範圍內，同時使我們能夠實現強勁的同比利潤增長。我們預期第一季整體分部利潤率為 21.9% 至 22.2%，年減 10 至上升 20 個基點。

Importantly, our guidance for both the first quarter and the full year for 2024 does not consider the planned acquisition of Carrier's Global Access Solutions business. We anticipate the closing of the deal by the end of the third quarter, and we'll update our guidance accordingly at that time.

重要的是，我們對 2024 年第一季和全年的指導並未考慮計劃收購開利全球接入解決方案業務。我們預計交易將在第三季末完成，屆時我們將相應更新我們的指導意見。

Now let's spend a few minutes on our outlook by business. In Aerospace Technologies, we expect that robust demand will remain throughout 2024 as our record-level backlog provides a catalyst for growth. In commercial, original equipment, build rates continue to trend upwards, drive an increase in shipset deliveries, primarily in air transport. On the commercial aftermarket side, we expect to see volume strength as flight hours continue to improve, particularly in widebody as international travel normalizes further.

現在讓我們花幾分鐘時間按業務展望一下我們的前景。在航空航天技術領域，我們預計 2024 年全年需求將保持強勁，因為我們創紀錄的積壓訂單為成長提供了催化劑。在商業原始設備中，建造率持續呈上升趨勢，推動船舶交付量的增加，主要是在航空運輸領域。在商業售後市場方面，隨著飛行時間的持續改善，我們預計銷售量將會強勁，尤其是隨著國際旅行進一步正常化，寬體客機的銷售量將會強勁。

In Defense and Space, supply chain constraints, not demand, will be the limiting factor on volume growth. However, our output growth of 18% in 2023 across aero, gives us confidence in our ability to execute, and we anticipate modest sequential improvement throughout the year.

在國防和航太領域，供應鏈限製而非需求將成為銷售成長的限制因素。然而，到 2023 年，我們在航空領域的產量增加了 18%，這讓我們對自己的執行能力充滿信心，我們預計全年將出現適度的連續改善。

For overall, Aerospace, we expect organic growth in the low double-digit range of 2024. While we again expect Aero to be our fastest top line grower, margins will likely remain at comparable levels to 2022 and 2023, as higher sales of lower-margin products are mostly offset by increased volume leverage. In the first quarter, we expect to see low-teens organic growth year-over-year as the progress we made on supply chain throughout 2023, covered with our record backlog, will drive continued meaningful year-over-year output growth.

總體而言，航空航太領域，我們預計到2024 年將實現低兩位數的有機成長。雖然我們再次預期航空航太領域將成為我們收入成長最快的領域，但隨著較低成本的銷售額增加，利潤率可能會保持在與2022 年和2023 年相當的水平。保證金產品大部分被成交量槓桿增加所抵消。在第一季度，我們預計將出現同比較低的有機成長，因為我們在整個 2023 年供應鏈方面取得的進展，加上我們創紀錄的積壓，將推動產量持續有意義的同比增長。

For Industrial Automation, the timing of short-cycle recovery will play a key factor in 2024 results and will likely lead to a back half-weighted year. In Process Solutions, we expect to further build on the success we experienced in '23 with another strong year of growth, particularly in our projects and aftermarket services business.

對於工業自動化來說，短週期復甦的時機將在 2024 年業績中發揮關鍵因素，並可能導致今年的權重減半。在流程解決方案領域，我們期望在 23 年取得的成功基礎上再接再厲，實現又一個強勁增長，特別是在我們的專案和售後服務業務方面。

Our sensing and safety technologies and productivity solutions and service businesses will benefit as the effects of distributor destocking fade throughout the year. In Warehouse and Workflow Solutions, we expect to move through the trough of the Warehouse Automation spending cycle, capitalizing on our robust pipeline and easier year-over-year comps as the year goes on. As a result of these dynamics, we expect IA sales to be flattish in 2024. Segment margins should expand, particularly in the second half, as short cycle recovery leads to volume leverage benefits. In the first quarter, IA will remain sequentially stable, while challenging comparisons in Warehouse Automation demand that is still near trough levels will weigh on year-over-year growth, leading to high single-digit to low double-digit sales declines year-over-year.

隨著經銷商去庫存的影響全年逐漸減弱，我們的感測和安全技術以及生產力解決方案和服務業務將受益。在倉庫和工作流程解決方案中，我們預計將利用我們強大的管道和更容易的逐年比較，度過倉庫自動化支出週期的低谷。由於這些動態，我們預計 2024 年 IA 銷售額將持平。細分市場利潤率應會擴大，特別是在下半年，因為短週期復甦會帶來銷售槓桿效益。第一季度，IA 將保持環比穩定，而仍接近低谷水平的倉庫自動化需求的挑戰性比較將拖累同比增長，導致銷售額同比出現高個位數到低兩位數的下降-年。

Turning to building automation. We see -- we expect to see our long-cycle businesses again outpace our short-cycle portfolio, particularly early in '24. Overall, the timing of the short-cycle recovery will be one of the key drivers of performance in the year and likely lead to stronger results in the second half. Both projects and services will grow on the strength of existing backlog and tailwinds from aftermarket services. We are seeing encouraging signs in our core verticals, both in the U.S. and internationally, as institutional investment in developing regions will be an engine for growth in [BA].

轉向樓宇自動化。我們預計，我們的長週期業務將再次超過我們的短週期投資組合，特別是在 24 年初。總體而言，短週期復甦的時機將是今年業績的關鍵驅動因素之一，並可能在下半年帶來更強勁的業績。項目和服務都將在現有積壓訂單和售後服務的推動下成長。我們在美國和國際上的核心垂直領域都看到了令人鼓舞的跡象，因為發展中地區的機構投資將成為 [BA] 成長的引擎。

We anticipate our short-cycle products businesses will benefit as inventory levels normalize. For Building Automation, we forecast full year sales growth to be low single digit year-on-year. Despite this, we anticipate BA will be the segment with the largest margin expansion, primarily driven by productivity actions and commercial excellence net of inflation. In the first quarter, we expect sales growth to be similar to the fourth quarter, as destocking reaches its late stages.

我們預計，隨著庫存水準正常化，我們的短週期產品業務將受益。對於樓宇自動化，我們預計全年銷售額將年增至個位數。儘管如此，我們預計 BA 將成為利潤率擴張最大的細分市場，這主要是由生產力行動和扣除通貨膨脹因素的商業卓越所推動的。由於去庫存已進入後期，我們預計第一季的銷售成長將與第四季相似。

In energy and sustainability solutions, the macro environment will provide both puts and takes in 2024. UOP growth will be led by strength in our catalysts and services businesses, while our process technologies business, modular equipment growth will likely be offset by volume headwinds from challenging comps in LNG equipment.

在能源和永續發展解決方案方面，宏觀環境將在2024 年提供看跌期權和收益。UOP 的成長將由催化劑和服務業務的實力帶動，而我們的製程技術業務、模組化設備的成長可能會被挑戰帶來的銷量逆風所抵消。液化天然氣設備的比較。

In Sustainable Technology Solutions, robust demand will lead to another record year of growth. In Advanced materials, strength in the broader Fluorine Products business, particularly in our Solstice portfolio, will be offset by expected volume declines in our legacy stationary products due to well telegraphed quota reductions in the U.S. Within the rest of advanced materials, improving short-cycle demand over the course of 2024, particularly from semiconductor fab, will support the top line. Overall, we expect ESS sales to be flat to up low single digits for the year compared to 2023.

在永續技術解決方案方面，強勁的需求將帶來另一個創紀錄的成長年。在先進材料領域，更廣泛的氟產品業務，特別是我們的Solstice 產品組合的實力，將被我們傳統固定產品的預期銷量下降所抵消，這是由於美國明確的配額減少而造成的。在其他先進材料中，改善了短週期2024 年的需求，特別是來自半導體晶圓廠的需求，將支撐營收。總體而言，我們預計今年 ESS 銷售額與 2023 年相比將持平或出現低個位數成長。

Margins should improve in 2024, though not as much as in our other segments, thanks to both commercial excellence and productivity actions. In the first quarter, we expect sales to be down mid- to high single digits year-over-year as we work through challenging comps, particularly in our gas processing business and prepare for higher activity levels as the year progresses.

由於商業卓越和生產力行動，到 2024 年，利潤率應該會有所改善，儘管幅度不會像我們其他細分市場那麼大。在第一季度，我們預計銷售額將同比下降中高個位數，因為我們正在努力應對具有挑戰性的競爭，特別是在我們的天然氣加工業務方面，並為今年更高的活動水平做好準備。

Moving on to other key guidance metrics. Pension income will be roughly flat to 2023 at approximately $550 million, which is modestly more positive than compared to our outlook comments from the third quarter earnings call as the interest rate environment became slightly more favorable towards the year-end. As a reminder, pension income is a noncash item, given our overfunded pension status will ensure no incremental contributions are needed. This is a great position to be in for our employees, both former and current and our shareholders.

繼續討論其他關鍵指導指標。到 2023 年，退休金收入將大致持平，約為 5.5 億美元，這比我們在第三季財報電話會議上的前景評論要樂觀一些，因為利率環境在年底前變得稍微有利。提醒一下，退休金收入是非現金項目，因為我們資金過剩的退休金狀況將確保不需要增量繳款。對於我們的前任和現任員工以及我們的股東來說，這是一個很好的職位。

We anticipate net below-the-line impact to be between negative $550 million and negative $700 million for the full year and between negative $140 million and negative $190 million in the first quarter. This guidance includes a slight improvement in year-over-year repositioning spend, which will be between $200 million and $300 million for the full year and between $60 million and $100 million in the first quarter as we continue to invest in high-return projects to support our future growth and productivity.

我們預計全年的淨線下影響將在負 5.5 億美元至負 7 億美元之間，第一季的淨線下影響將在負 1.4 億美元至負 1.9 億美元之間。該指引包括同比重新定位支出略有改善，全年支出將在 2 億至 3 億美元之間，第一季將在 6,000 萬至 1 億美元之間，因為我們將繼續投資於高回報項目支持我們未來的成長和生產力。

We expect the adjusted effective tax rate to be around 21% for the full year and around 22% for the first quarter due to timing of discrete payments. We anticipate average share count to be around 656 million shares for the full year as we execute on our commitment to reduce share count by at least 1% per year through opportunistic buybacks. As a result of these inputs, we anticipate full year adjusted earnings per share to be between $9.80 and $10.10, up 7% to 10% year-on-year. We expect first quarter earnings per share to be between $2.12 and $2.22, up 2% to 7% year-over-year.

由於離散付款的時間安排，我們預計全年調整後的有效稅率約為 21%，第一季調整後的有效稅率約為 22%。我們預計全年平均股票數量約為 6.56 億股，因為我們履行了透過機會性回購每年至少減少 1% 股票數量的承諾。由於這些投入，我們預計全年調整後每股收益將在 9.80 美元至 10.10 美元之間，年增 7% 至 10%。我們預計第一季每股收益在2.12美元至2.22美元之間，年增2%至7%。

Included in the appendix is a bridge that walks the elements of 2024 adjusted earnings per share from 2023. You'll see the primary year-over-year drivers are higher volumes and increased productivity, with lower share count offsetting below-the-line changes, which are primarily from higher net interest expense.

附錄中包含了一座橋樑，涵蓋了從 2023 年起的 2024 年調整後每股收益的要素。您將看到同比增長的主要驅動因素是銷售增加和生產率提高，而股票數量減少抵消了線下變化，這主要來自較高的淨利息支出。

On free cash flow, we expect to grow in line with earnings, excluding the after-tax impact of last year's onetime settlement from derisking our balance sheet. We will begin the multiyear unwind of working capital, where our digitalization capabilities through Accelerator are improving demand planning and optimizing production materials management. In addition, we see several compelling growth-oriented capital investment opportunities and expect to fund high-return projects focused on creating uniquely innovative, differentiated technologies. As a result, we expect free cash flow to be in the $5.6 billion to $6 billion range, up 6% to 13%, excluding the impact of prior year settlements.

在自由現金流方面，我們預期其成長將與收益保持一致，排除去年一次性結算對資產負債表風險的稅後影響。我們將開始多年的營運資本縮減，我們透過加速器的數位化能力正在改善需求計劃並優化生產材料管理。此外，我們還看到了一些引人注目的以成長為導向的資本投資機會，並期望為專注於創造獨特創新、差異化技術的高回報項目提供資金。因此，我們預期自由現金流將在 56 億至 60 億美元之間，成長 6% 至 13%，不包括上一年和解的影響。

A 2024 free cash flow bridge is in the appendix and summarizes the drivers of year-over-year growth with net income growth being the largest factor, followed by working capital improvements, partially offset by modestly higher growth CapEx spend. Regarding capital deployment. While we're focused on executing our robust M&A pipeline, opportunistic share repurchase at highly attractive valuations, which you saw in the second half of '23 as we accelerated our buyback in 3Q and again in 4Q, remains an important part of our framework, a vote of confidence in Honeywell's performance, and that will continue to be true in 2024.

附錄中列出了 2024 年自由現金流橋，總結了同比增長的驅動因素，其中淨收入增長是最大因素，其次是營運資本改善，部分被資本支出小幅增長所抵消。關於資金配置。雖然我們專注於執行強勁的併購管道，但以極具吸引力的估值進行機會主義股票回購（您在23 年下半年看到，我們在第三季和第四季加速了回購）仍然是我們框架的重要組成部分，這是對霍尼韋爾業績的信任票，2024 年仍將如此。

So in summary, while we're cautious on the macroeconomic backdrop, our leverage to the key macro trends of aerospace, automation, and the energy transition underpinned by digitalization, which will be complemented by our record backlog and accelerated operating system, give us confidence in delivering another strong year in 2024.

總而言之，雖然我們對宏觀經濟背景持謹慎態度，但我們對航空航太、自動化和以數位化為基礎的能源轉型等關鍵宏觀趨勢的槓桿作用，再加上我們創紀錄的積壓和加速的操作系統，給了我們信心2024 年又是強勁的一年。

So with that, let me turn it back to Vimal on Slide 9.

那麼，讓我把它轉回幻燈片 9 上的 Vimal。

Thank you, Greg. Let's take a minute to zoom out from the near-term dynamics and talk about how our financial algorithm translates into value through EPS growth.

謝謝你，格雷格。讓我們花點時間關注短期動態，討論我們的財務演算法如何透過每股盈餘成長轉化為價值。

Last May, we unveiled our updated long-term financial growth algorithm. One of the strengths of that framework is that we have demonstrated that we can balance between the levers we have to deliver what matters, consistent, compelling EPS growth.

去年五月，我們公佈了更新後的長期財務成長演算法。該框架的優勢之一是，我們已經證明，我們可以在實現重要目標、持續、引人注目的每股盈餘成長所需的槓桿之間取得平衡。

Let me unpack this for a moment. Our annual 4% to 7% organic sales growth and 40 to 60 basis point of margin expansion alone will deliver 6% to 10% of organic EPS growth. Some years, one or other of these elements move. But as you've seen, 6% to 10% delivery has been consistent hallmark of Honeywell. When coupled with 1% to 2% of EPS accretion from both share buyback and consistent M&A execution, we are confident we'll deliver double-digit adjusted EPS growth at the midpoint on a through-cycle basis.

讓我暫時解開這個問題。光是我們每年 4% 至 7% 的有機銷售成長和 40 至 60 個基點的利潤率擴張就將帶來 6% 至 10% 的有機每股收益成長。有些年份，這些元素中的一個或另一個會改變。但正如您所看到的，6% 到 10% 的交付率一直是霍尼韋爾的一貫標誌。再加上股票回購和持續併購執行帶來的 1% 至 2% 的 EPS 成長，我們有信心在整個週期的中點實現兩位數的調整後 EPS 成長。

The strength of our dividend, currently yielding about 2%, also adds further value to our shareholder returns. Although there has been some noise in our results, mostly related to below the line, we have delivered 8% segment profit growth and 2% adjusted EPS accretion from the share repurchases on an average during the past 3 years, in line with the long-term financial framework. Now we are ramping up M&A lever, which should drive incremental benefits.

目前我們的股息殖利率約為 2%，這也進一步增加了我們股東回報的價值。儘管我們的業績存在一些噪音，主要與線下相關，但過去3 年，我們透過股票回購平均實現了8% 的部門利潤增長和2% 的調整後每股收益增長，這與我們的長期目標一致。術語財務架構。現在我們正在加大併購槓桿，這應該會帶來增量效益。

With that, let's go to the next page to discuss our recent progress on this long-term growth algorithm. As you can see on Slide 10, our 2023 results represent another year of strong financial performance consistent with our framework, following meaningful progress since 2016 in organic growth, gross margin, segment margin expansion and free cash flow reacceleration.

接下來，讓我們進入下一頁討論我們在這種長期成長演算法上的最新進展。正如您在幻燈片10 中看到的，繼2016 年以來在有機增長、毛利率、部門利潤率擴張和自由現金流重新加速方面取得有意義的進展之後，我們2023 年的業績又是與我們的框架一致的強勁財務業績的一年。

Similarly, our 2024 expectation for organic growth, gross margin, segment margin and free cash flow margins are solidly in line with our long-term commitment as we continue to make steady, consistent improvement in quality of Honeywell's financial profile. We are reorienting the organization to prioritize organic growth, deploying the operational power of Accelerator 3.0 and executing on a robust portfolio optimization strategy, which will enable us to achieve our long-term targets.

同樣，我們對 2024 年有機成長、毛利率、分部利潤率和自由現金流利潤率的預期與我們的長期承諾完全一致，因為我們將繼續穩步、持續地改善霍尼韋爾的財務狀況品質。我們正在對組織進行重新定位，優先考慮有機成長，部署加速器 3.0 的營運能力並執行穩健的投資組合優化策略，這將使我們能夠實現長期目標。

I look forward to the next phase of transformation and remain optimistic about the tremendous opportunities we are uncovering to capture value, drive incremental sales growth, expand margins and generate more cash. We'll continue to track our progression closely and update you as these efforts increasingly translate into our enhanced financial performance.

我期待下一階段的轉型，並對我們正在發現的捕捉價值、推動增量銷售成長、擴大利潤和產生更多現金的巨大機會保持樂觀。我們將繼續密切追蹤我們的進展，並隨著這些努力逐漸轉化為我們增強的財務表現而向您通報最新情況。

Now let's turn to Slide 11 for closing thoughts before we move to Q&A session. We delivered on all of our 2023 commitments. We are confident in our ability to weather the dynamic macroeconomic and geopolitical backdrop with operating rigor you have come to expect of Honeywell. Recent record backlog levels, ongoing strength in our biggest end markets, aerospace and energy as well as impeding recovery in our short cycle business will support strong results as we progress through 2024.

現在，在進入問答環節之前，讓我們先看一下投影片 11 以總結自己的想法。我們兌現了 2023 年的所有承諾。我們相信，我們有能力應對動態的宏觀經濟和地緣政治背景，並以您對霍尼韋爾的期望而嚴格運作。最近創紀錄的積壓水平、我們最大的終端市場、航空航太和能源的持續強勁以及我們短週期業務的復甦受阻，將支持我們在 2024 年取得強勁業績。

I remain optimistic about the future of Honeywell and believe the company is well positioned to drive the innovation needed to solve some of the world's most challenging problems. The future is really what we make it.

我對霍尼韋爾的未來仍然持樂觀態度，並相信該公司處於有利位置，能夠推動解決世界上一些最具挑戰性問題所需的創新。未來確實是由我們創造的。

With that, Sean, let's move to Q&A.

肖恩，接下來我們進入問答環節。

Thank you, Vimal. Vimal and Greg are now available to answer your questions. (Operator Instructions)

謝謝你，維馬爾。 Vimal 和 Greg 現在可以回答您的問題。 （操作員說明）

Camilla, please open the line for Q&A.

卡米拉，請打開問答線。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Steve Tusa with JPMorgan.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自摩根大通的 Steve Tusa。

Can you just talk about the sequential progression in EPS as we move through the year off of the first quarter base here?

您能否談談每股盈餘的連續進展，因為我們從第一季的基數開始進入這一年？

You're just talking about for the full year? Yes.

你說的是全年嗎？是的。

Yes. I mean the first quarter is a little bit light as a percentage of the year. So just trying to understand how things build for the next 3 quarters to get to the midpoint of guidance.

是的。我的意思是，第一季佔全年的百分比有點低。因此，我只是想了解未來三個季度的情況如何達到指導的中點。

Sure. Sure. I mean if you look at the guide we're giving for Q1, it's actually not that different from 2023. So as we progress through the year, we're going to expect to see the short-cycle revenue inflection more likely between 2 and 3Q than 1 and 2Q in terms of the level of that acceleration. And so I think the EPS will follow along with that. I mean the last 2 years, our EPS has been more back-end weighted in third and fourth quarter than our prior history. I think it's going to look fairly similar this year.

當然。當然。我的意思是，如果你看一下我們為第一季提供的指南，它實際上與2023 年沒有太大不同。因此，隨著這一年的進展，我們預計更有可能在2 到2 之間看到短期收入拐點。就加速水準而言，3Q比1和2Q好。所以我認為每股盈餘也會隨之而來。我的意思是，在過去的兩年裡，我們的每股盈餘在第三季和第四季的後端權重比我們之前的歷史更高。我認為今年的情況會非常相似。

Okay. And then just one on the Buildings business. What are you guys seeing there? And what are you assuming for the products business in the next few quarters? Obviously, a lot of noise in the channel there and also just from an end-market demand perspective, maybe touch on regionally as well in the Buildings business.

好的。然後是關於建築業務的一個。你們在那裡看到什麼？您對未來幾季的產品業務有何預期？顯然，通路中存在著許多噪音，而且從終端市場需求的角度來看，可能會涉及區域以及建築業務。

Yes, Steve. So we had a quarter 4 finish, in which our buildings orders grew across all segments, both in building products and in building solutions. So that puts us in a good setup for 2024. To your specific question, the setup we have allows us to see sequential progress in the short cycle as the year progresses. And the front end of the year, we'll see more strength in our solutions side of the business. Europe remains challenged as it was over the last several quarters. And in the U.S., we are in the late innings of destocking of the distributor inventories. So that's the overall setting.

是的，史蒂夫。因此，我們在第四季度完成了這項任務，其中我們的建築訂單在所有領域均有所增長，無論是建築產品還是建築解決方案。因此，這使我們為 2024 年做好了良好的準備。對於你的具體問題，我們現有的安排使我們能夠看到隨著這一年的進展，在短期週期內取得的連續進展。今年年初，我們將看到我們的解決方案業務方面更加強大。與過去幾個季度一樣，歐洲仍然面臨挑戰。在美國，我們正處於經銷商庫存去化的後期階段。這就是整體設定。

What excites me about the business is the work we have done on new products. That's going to position us well. Our strength in high-growth regions, which is performing exceedingly well. So net-net, we remain pretty confident on growth in building solutions, building automation business in 2024, specifically margin expansion and [continue] delivering strong results there.

這項業務令我興奮的是我們在新產品方面所做的工作。這將使我們處於有利的位置。我們在高成長地區的優勢，表現非常出色。因此，我們對 2024 年建築解決方案和建築自動化業務的成長仍然充滿信心，特別是利潤率擴張和[繼續]在那裡取得強勁的業績。

Our next question comes from the line of Julian Mitchell with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

Maybe just wanted to try and think about the progress through the year from a segment margin standpoint. I guess you've had 7 quarters in a row of good year-on-year expansion. Q1 is sort of flat, and then the year is up close to that sort of 50 bps mark. So you're exiting the year in Q4 maybe with margins up 100 bps plus. So just trying to understand, starting Q1 that 0 Q4, up 100, where does kind of the sharpest improvement come on a segment basis as you go through the year? And do we think about that margin year-on-year improvement from [wide] is just being pretty steady as we go through 2024?

也許只是想嘗試從細分市場利潤的角度來思考這一年的進展。我猜你們已經連續 7 個季度實現了良好的同比擴張。第一季比較平穩，然後今年就接近 50 個基點的大關。因此，您將在第四季度結束這一年，利潤率可能會上升 100 個基點以上。因此，我想了解一下，從第一季開始到第四季 0，上升 100，在這一年中，在細分市場的基礎上，最顯著的改進來自哪裡？我們是否認為，到 2024 年，[wide] 的利潤率較去年同期改善會相當穩定？

Thanks, Julian. Again, I would tell you a lot of the guidance fundamentals are pretty -- are tied pretty closely to the short cycle recovery. And what I mean by that is we don't expect a big inflection in the first half. And so therefore, our segment profit improvement in the first half versus the second half is going to be a bit lower. And as those short-cycle businesses recover, remember, those are some of the highest margin businesses in the portfolio. So that volume leverage is going to be pretty powerful as we go through the year. And that will be true in each of those non-aero-related businesses.

謝謝，朱利安。再次，我想告訴你，很多指導基本面都非常好——與短週期復甦密切相關。我的意思是我們預計上半場不會有太大的變化。因此，我們上半年的部門利潤改善幅度將略低於下半年。請記住，隨著這些短週期業務的復甦，這些是投資組合中利潤率最高的業務。因此，隨著這一年的發展，成交量槓桿將非常強大。對於每一個非航空相關業務都是如此。

What I will add, Julian, is if I look at the full year picture for the margin expansion, what we have committed is 30 to 60 basis points, there are 3 broad drivers. The pricing will remain of the order of 3%. Our price cost will not be a headwind. We remain very confident on our pricing execution. Second, we will see good productivity in 2024. Material productivity remains strong in Q4, and we expect that to roll up on a full year basis in 2024. We also have made good progress in executing AI in our operation, and that will be also a source of productivity in 2024. And finally, the short cycle recovery point, which Greg made, as that unpacks itself, the margin accretion we have on that is pretty substantial. So when you put it all together, we remain extremely confident on our margin expansion algorithm.

Julian，我要補充的是，如果我看看全年的利潤率擴張情況，我們承諾的是 30 到 60 個基點，有 3 個廣泛的驅動因素。定價仍將維持3%左右。我們的價格成本不會成為阻力。我們對我們的定價執行仍然非常有信心。其次，我們將在2024 年看到良好的生產力。第四季的材料生產力仍然強勁，我們預計2024 年全年將有所成長。我們在營運中執行人工智慧方面也取得了良好進展，這也將是2024 年生產力的來源。最後，格雷格提出的短週期復原點，隨著它的自行展開，我們在這方面的利潤成長是相當可觀的。因此，當你把所有這些放在一起時，我們對我們的利潤擴張演算法仍然非常有信心。

That's helpful. And just my quick follow-up. If we look at, say, Slide 15, trying to understand sort of the shape of that sales recovery. You've got those 2 units at the bottom, productivity solutions and service and warehouse and workflow. If you're thinking about those 2 businesses, one exited the year, just finished down 25% and the other exited down 50, what's the exit rate from '24 for those 2 that's embedded in the sales guide, please?

這很有幫助。這只是我的快速跟進。如果我們看一下投影片 15，試著了解銷售復甦的形狀。底部有這兩個單元：生產力解決方案、服務、倉庫和工作流程。如果您考慮的是這2 項業務，其中一項在當年退出，僅下降了25%，另一項則下降了50%，請問銷售指南中嵌入的這2 項業務從24 年開始的退出率是多少？

Yes. Again, we don't guide that specifically, but you should expect that this exit rate diminishes as the year progresses. And as we get into the back half of the year, that turns to be something that is likely positive on productivity solutions and services and will be flattish on Warehouse and Workflow Solutions and perhaps up, we'll see how the year progresses on the project side. An important thing to keep in mind is inside of the warehouse business, in particular, we've got actually a very rich mix now on the aftermarket services business. So while the projects orders will really be the thing that will govern the top line progression overall, we see double-digit growth continuing in the aftermarket bit, which, of course, is where we capture the value from the installed base. So we feel very good about the progression of that as we go through the year.

是的。同樣，我們沒有具體指導這一點，但您應該預期這種退出率會隨著時間的推移而減少。當我們進入今年下半年時，這可能對生產力解決方案和服務產生積極影響，而對倉庫和工作流程解決方案則持平，也許向上，我們將看到該項目今年的進展情況邊。需要記住的一件重要事情是倉庫業務內部，特別是我們現在在售後服務業務方面實際上擁有非常豐富的組合。因此，雖然專案訂單確實將決定整體營收的成長，但我們看到售後市場繼續出現兩位數的成長，這當然是我們從安裝基礎中獲取價值的地方。因此，我們對這一年的進展感到非常滿意。

Maybe to add to Greg's point on warehouse solutions business, the top line has been challenging. But I see that this as not a headwind for EPS in 2024. We have taken action that Greg spoke about aftermarket. The aftermarket continues to be strong and will be a factor of growth in 2024. We have taken meaningful action on our cost base, specifically on supply chain. And when we put those actions together, which is in our control, we see margin expansion in this business. And in spite of top line pressure, it will not be a source of EPS solution. It will be a source of EPS accretion.

也許為了補充格雷格關於倉庫解決方案業務的觀點，收入一直充滿挑戰。但我認為這並不是 2024 年 EPS 的阻力。我們已經採取了格雷格談到的售後市場行動。售後市場持續強勁，並將成為 2024 年成長的因素。我們已針對成本基礎（特別是供應鏈）採取了有意義的行動。當我們將這些行動放在一起時（這是我們的控制範圍），我們會看到該業務的利潤率擴大。儘管存在營收壓力，但它不會成為 EPS 解決方案的來源。它將成為每股收益增加的一個來源。

And Julian, this is Sean. If I could add just one [point] there. From a modeling perspective, keep in mind, it's not just a dynamic embedded in our model for '24, second half, likely stronger than the first half. It's also that second half '23 was weaker than first half '23. So both of those have influenced the year-over-year growth rate as you're talking about exiting '23 versus exiting '24.

朱利安，這是肖恩。如果我可以在那裡添加一點的話。從建模的角度來看，請記住，這不僅僅是我們模型中嵌入的動態，24 年下半年可能比上半年更強。而且 23 年下半場的表現也比 23 年上半場弱。因此，當您談論退出 '23 與退出 '24 時，這兩者都影響了同比增長率。

Our next question comes from the line of Scott Davis with Melius Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Scott Davis。

Guys, we -- can we take an opportunity to take a step backwards at least and just walk around the world a little bit on what you're assuming. I assume, Vimal, you probably have a pretty good read on what's going on in China. It's been a tough region for a lot of your peers. But you don't need to really focus on Aerospace because it's a different dynamic. But for the other businesses, perhaps, just a little bit of color on what you're expecting? Any differences in '24 geographically versus '23? That would be helpful.

夥計們，我們能不能藉此機會至少後退一步，按照你們的假設走遍世界。我想，維馬爾，你可能對中國正在發生的事情有很好的了解。對於許多同行來說，這是一個艱難的地區。但你不需要真正關注航空航天，因為它是一個不同的動態。但對其他企業來說，也許只是你所期望的一點色彩？ 24 世紀與 23 世紀在地理上有什麼不同嗎？那會有幫助的。

Yes. Thanks, Scott. So specifically talking about -- let me start with China. We grew about 7% in 2023. I don't expect a material shift between '24 to '23. We have weathered a tough year in '23, China's economic cycle. And I expect '24 to be a shade better, but it's no more going to be a source of high growth, what it used to be 5 or 7 years back. Speaking more broadly of high-growth regions, which represents almost 25% of the Honeywell revenue now, we had very good performance in Middle East and India, in particular, and we expect those trends to continue in 2024. India grew for us high double digits. In 2023, we have a very meaningful revenue there, similar good performance in Middle East. So we expect those regions to perform well.

是的。謝謝，斯科特。所以具體來說——讓我從中國開始。 2023 年我們的成長率約為 7%。我預計 24 年至 23 年之間不會有重大變化。我們度過了23年中國經濟週期的艱難一年。我預計 24 年會好一些，但它不再像 5 或 7 年前那樣成為高成長的來源。更廣泛地說，高成長地區目前佔霍尼韋爾收入的近25%，我們在中東和印度的表現尤其出色，我們預計這些趨勢將在2024 年持續下去。印度為我們帶來了高雙倍成長數字。 2023 年，我們在那裡獲得了非常有意義的收入，在中東也有類似的良好表現。因此，我們預計這些地區將表現良好。

All in all, I expect high-growth regions to grow double digit, which will be a source of organic growth, about 1% and overall Honeywell algorithm of organic growth. Europe remains challenging. We have seen headwinds in some portions of our businesses and tailwinds in some other portions. So net-net, it's more neutral to negative. And U.S., of course, we are, like everybody else, waiting for interest rate environment to settle, and that will determine the performance of our business, specifically on the short cycle. So that's kind of my broad overview of how we see different geographies.

總而言之，我預計高成長地區將實現兩位數成長，這將成為有機成長的來源，約 1% 以及霍尼韋爾整體有機成長演算法。歐洲仍然充滿挑戰。我們看到我們業務的某些部分遇到了逆風，而其他一些部分則遇到了順風。所以淨淨，它是中性到負面的。當然，在美國，我們和其他人一樣，正在等待利率環境穩定下來，這將決定我們業務的表現，特別是在短期週期中。這就是我對不同地區的看法的大致概述。

Okay. That's helpful. And then a little bit of a nuance here. Would you classify the Carrier deal as a bolt-on? It seems like a little larger than a bolt-on, by my definition, but kind of curious how you think about it because clearly, in your slides, you mentioned bolt-on deals being the focus and if we're to expect other kind of $5 billion-ish?

好的。這很有幫助。然後這裡有一點細微差別。您會將開利的交易歸類為補充交易嗎？根據我的定義，它似乎比螺栓連接更大一點，但有點好奇你如何看待它，因為很明顯，在你的幻燈片中，你提到螺栓連接交易是焦點，如果我們期待其他類型50億美元左右？

I would call it [bolt-on] because my argument is that bolt-on to me is, which is adding to our core portfolio and propels the growth of organic growth of the business itself. So that's what this business is. If you see our buildings products business, our strategy is to have products, which are specified, which are critical for the building. We had a moderate position in security, with the addition of this portfolio, makes us a meaningful player. And therefore, I call it a bolt-on because it's a continuum of our strategy. We are not finding a new adjacency. We're not exploring some new idea. It's something we understand extremely well, and therefore, our confidence to add shareholder value here is extremely strong.

我將其稱為“補充”，因為我的觀點是，補充對我來說是，它增加了我們的核心投資組合，並推動業務本身的有機成長。這就是這項業務的意義。如果您看到我們的建築產品業務，我們的策略是提供對建築至關重要的指定產品。我們在安全方面處於中等地位，加上這個投資組合，使我們成為一個有意義的參與者。因此，我將其稱為“補充”，因為它是我們策略的連續體。我們沒有找到新的鄰接關係。我們並不是在探索一些新想法。我們非常了解這一點，因此，我們對增加股東價值的信心非常強烈。

And keep in mind, it's a $5 billion, it's something like 4% of our market cap. So reasonably -- it's not a huge bet as it relates to that as well. Obviously, a very different world than when our market cap was half that 10 years ago.

請記住，這是 50 億美元，大約占我們市值的 4%。所以合理的是——這並不是一個巨大的賭注，因為它也與此相關。顯然，現在的世界與 10 年前我們的市值只有一半時截然不同。

Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Obin with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的安德魯‧奧賓 (Andrew Obin)。

Just looking at UOP, I was a little bit surprised by the growth in the quarter. I would have thought with STS being strong. And I know you sort of gave us, I think it was a gas product. But can you just tell us what kind of visibility do you have on this business accelerating into '24? Because it is sort of -- I guess, that's what you're guiding to, but just a little bit more granularity there.

看看 UOP，我對本季的成長感到有點驚訝。我本來以為STS很強。我知道你給了我們，我認為這是一種天然氣產品。但您能否告訴我們您對這項加速進入 24 世紀的業務有何看法？因為這有點——我想，這就是你所要指導的，但只是粒度更細。

Sure, Andrew. So '23 revenue look is 1% growth. It's primarily driven by equipment revenue we had in the prior year. We had large equipment-based projects in our volume, LNG projects. So on a year-on-year comp basis don't repeat itself. But if you see the core UOP business on catalyst, it remains pretty strong. Your specific question on sustainable technologies, as we mentioned during our earnings earlier, I remain very confident on its performance. We crossed the benchmark of 50 licenses of sustainable aviation fuel just a few weeks back. Now we are seeing activity in carbon capture projects, early innings on hydrogen projects. So our plans to have sustainable technology business of $1 billion in the next few years haven't changed. And my confidence of that absolutely has only grown higher over the last few months.

當然，安德魯。因此，23 年收入預計將成長 1%。這主要是由我們上一年的設備收入所驅動的。我們的液化天然氣專案中有大型設備專案。因此，在逐年比較的基礎上，不要重複。但如果你看到 UOP 的核心業務處於催化劑狀態，它仍然相當強勁。正如我們之前在財報中提到的，您關於永續技術的具體問題，我對其表現仍然非常有信心。就在幾週前，我們就突破了 50 個永續航空燃料許可證的基準。現在我們看到碳捕獲項目的活動以及氫項目的早期發展。所以我們未來幾年擁有10億美元永續科技業務的計畫沒有改變。在過去的幾個月裡，我對此的信心絕對只增不減。

Yes. And I would also just zoom out. I mean we talked about some of the variability in this business, and PMT has always got some of the highest variability, with UOP being a big part of that. Keep in mind, we grew sales in UOP for the year, something like 8%, very, very healthy. And we've also grown orders somewhere in that same neighborhood. I think 2% for the year, but with 13% in the catalyst business. So we've got -- we've come off some big comps with the large LNG projects. Overall, this is a very healthy business, with a very healthy backlog. So -- and as you said, the STS business provides a really nice catalyst on that new aspect of it. But we feel very good about where UOP is at this stage.

是的。我也會縮小。我的意思是，我們討論了該業務的一些可變性，PMT 總是具有一些最高的可變性，UOP 是其中的重要組成部分。請記住，我們今年 UOP 的銷售額成長了 8% 左右，非常非常健康。我們還在同一社區的某個地方增加了訂單。我認為今年佔 2%，但催化劑業務佔 13%。因此，我們已經與大型液化天然氣專案進行了一些大型比較。總體而言，這是一項非常健康的業務，擁有非常健康的積壓訂單。因此，正如您所說，STS 業務為其新方面提供了非常好的催化劑。但我們對 UOP 現階段的狀況感到非常滿意。

Excellent. And just a follow-up on advanced materials. I guess same question, the business has returned to growth, just -- what are you seeing, maybe in a little bit more detail, driving positive outlook for '24? I think Chemours is constructive there as well. And maybe you can throw in a lot of questions on semis. I guess that's part of it as well, just if you expand on that.

出色的。這只是先進材料的後續。我想同樣的問題，業務已經恢復增長，只是 - 你看到了什麼，也許更詳細一點，推動了 24 世紀的積極前景？我認為科慕在這方面也具有建設性。也許你可以在半決賽中提出很多問題。我想這也是其中的一部分，只要你對此進行擴展。

Yes. Thanks, Andrew. Yes, we do see a recovery in semis modestly increasing. Every month is becoming modestly better. So that's part of our forecast for 2024. We also saw in Q4 a recovery in some segments of chemicals in short cycle, and we expect that to roll over in 2024. So the short cycle recovery on a broader Honeywell portfolio is not a one event. So it's going to happen in different portions. So chemicals happen late Q4, and we expect that to continue. So all in all, advanced material should have a better year in 2024 compared to what we had in 2023.

是的。謝謝，安德魯。是的，我們確實看到半決賽的復甦略有增加。每個月都在變得稍微好一點。這是我們對2024 年預測的一部分。我們在第四季度也看到化學品的某些細分市場在短週期內復甦，我們預計這種情況將在2024 年延續。因此，更廣泛的霍尼韋爾產品組合的短週期復甦並非單一事件。所以這會發生在不同的部分。因此，化學物質發生在第四季末，我們預計這種情況將持續下去。總而言之，與 2023 年相比，先進材料在 2024 年的表現應該會更好。

Our next question comes from the line of Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究中心的奈傑爾·科 (Nigel Coe)。

Congrats on the Chairman role. So lots of modern questions, so here's a few more -- about a couple of more. Pricing, I'm not sure if you've called out price, but maybe if you can just talk about where you've been better price in your revenue build. But it seems that we're entering the year, with 2 of the segments down pretty heavily. Maybe just talk about how you see that break back to growth for IA and ESS? Is that in the second quarter, the more second half loaded? And perhaps maybe talk about what you're seeing in the order rates to maybe support the view that we are at the bottom in some of these markets.

恭喜擔任主席。有很多現代問題，所以這裡還有一些——大約還有更多。定價，我不確定你是否已經提到了價格，但也許你可以談談你在收入建設中哪些地方的價格更好。但似乎我們正在進入這一年，其中兩個細分市場大幅下降。也許只是談談您如何看待 IA 和 ESS 恢復成長的情況？是在第二季度，後半段加載更多嗎？也許可以談談您在訂單率中看到的情況，以支持我們在其中一些市場中處於底部的觀點。

Yes. So for IA and ESS, I would say IA, broadly, as we said, will be flattish on a year-on-year basis. The strength we see there is in Process Solutions, in particular. That's -- it had a strong '23. We expect another strong 2024 from Process Solutions. Rest of IA is a short cycle recovery. We saw pockets of that happening in Q4 in our Scanning & Mobility business. Now other portions have to also recover during the course of the year. I talked about our Warehouse Automation business and how we expect that to perform during the course of the year, specifically on the margin side. So that definitely is part of our forecast.

是的。因此，對於 IA 和 ESS，我想說，正如我們所說，IA 總體上將同比持平。我們看到的優勢尤其體現在流程解決方案中。那就是——它有一個強大的「23」。我們預計 Process Solutions 將在 2024 年再次表現強勁。 IA 的其餘部分是短週期恢復。我們在第四季度的掃描和移動業務中看到了一些這種情況的發生。現在其他部分也必須在一年內恢復。我談到了我們的倉庫自動化業務以及我們期望該業務在這一年中的表現，特別是在利潤方面。所以這絕對是我們預測的一部分。

On ESS, we briefly talked in earlier question, UOP is carrying a pretty strong booking and backlog. So we expect a good year from UOP in 2024. And then I talked about advanced materials a bit earlier there. On orders rate, the Q4 orders were up 1%, which helped us to further bolster our backlog now to record high level. Specifically on orders, there were highlights on short cycle, early green shoots in building products, in Scanning & Mobility business in parts of chemicals business, which is a good sign because if a couple have shown, I remain confident that this will grow more broadly across our portfolio.

關於 ESS，我們在先前的問題中簡要地談到，UOP 的預訂量和積壓量相當大。因此，我們預計 2024 年 UOP 將迎來美好的一年。然後我早些時候談到了先進材料。在訂單率方面，第四季訂單成長了 1%，這幫助我們進一步增加了目前的積壓訂單，達到歷史新高。具體來說，在訂單方面，建築產品、部分化學品業務的掃描和移動業務的短週期、早期萌芽是亮點，這是一個好兆頭，因為如果有幾個已經表現出來，我仍然相信這將更廣泛地成長在我們的投資組合中。

Long cycle, strong bookings in commercial aerospace, in UOP, in Process Solutions. There were some lumpiness in orders in Warehouse Automation and Defense & Space, which I talked earlier. So net-net, our long-cycle orders performed extremely well on an annualized basis in 2023. And short cycle is showing early cycle of recovery, which gives me confidence for 2024.

商業航空航太、UOP 和製程解決方案領域的周期長、訂單量大。我之前談到過，倉庫自動化和國防與航太領域的訂單出現了一些波動。因此，淨淨來看，我們的長週期訂單在 2023 年按年化計算表現非常好。而短週期訂單則顯示出早期的復甦週期，這讓我對 2024 年充滿信心。

Yes, and maybe just to the last point on pricing. We talked about 4% for 2023. That's exactly where it came in. And the more balanced view of price versus volume in our model for '24 is really 3% pricing. So -- and that's going to be, to Vimal's point, I think price cost neutral to maybe slightly positive for the year. So we feel very good about our ability to deliver on that. We've talked about that at length in the past. I think our capabilities in that area have been very strong, and we continue to be confident in going into next year.

是的，也許只是關於定價的最後一點。我們談到 2023 年為 4%。這正是它的用武之地。在我們的 24 年模型中，價格與銷售的更平衡觀點實際上是 3% 的定價。因此，就維馬爾的觀點而言，我認為今年的價格成本是中性的，甚至可能略有正面。因此，我們對自己實現這一目標的能力感到非常滿意。我們過去已經詳細討論過這個問題。我認為我們在這方面的能力非常強，我們對明年仍然充滿信心。

Okay. That's helpful, Greg. And a quick follow-up on the cash flow. Nice to see the pickup year-over-year. I'm guessing the tax benefits -- potential tax benefits from R&D kind of rolled back. I'm assuming that's not in your guide, but just curious if that does pass the Senate, what kind of benefit you might see for 2024 free cash flow?

好的。這很有幫助，格雷格。並對現金流進行快速跟進。很高興看到同比增長。我猜測稅收優惠——研發帶來的潛在稅收優惠有所回落。我假設這不在您的指南中，但只是好奇如果這確實在參議院獲得通過，您可能會看到 2024 年自由現金流有什麼樣的好處？

Yes. Well, first of all, there's -- it's not nearly home, as I'm sure you can appreciate. So we're not sitting here counting any chickens. To be honest, Nigel, I think we need to wait and see exactly how all the rules first whether it happens and how they set the rules as you can appreciate all of the specifics matter a lot in this area. So no, we're not guiding anything special about that. We'll wait and see exactly what happens and then interpret that and integrate it into our view when it becomes a real thing.

是的。嗯，首先，這裡離家不遠，我相信你會明白這一點。所以我們不會坐在這裡數雞。說實話，奈傑爾，我認為我們首先需要等待，看看所有規則到底如何發生，以及他們如何制定規則，因為你可以理解所有細節在這個領域都非常重要。所以不，我們對此沒有任何特別的指導。我們將拭目以待，看看究竟會發生什麼，然後在它成為現實時對其進行解釋並將其整合到我們的觀點中。

Our next question comes from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Sheila Kahyaoglu 和 Jefferies 的對話。

Maybe I'll start off with Aerospace, if that's okay? You talked about it growing low double digits. How do we think about the OE growth there? What build rates are you embedding into that on the commercial aerospace side? And any color you could give on aftermarket and defense growth?

也許我會從航空航天開始，可以嗎？你談到了它的低兩位數成長。我們如何看待那裡的 OE 成長？您在商用航空航太方面的建置率是多少？您對售後市場和國防成長有何看法？

Yes. So Sheila, we expect the overall low double-digit guide includes continued high growth rate of OE. As we saw in 2023, that will repeat itself in 2024. Also expect double-digit growth in aftermarket. Defense, we performed at low single to mid-single digit in 2023. The supply chain constraint remains the biggest handle there. And as we make progress, we expect it to perform in that range in 2024 also. So -- but the biggest unlock for us is supply chain. We have demonstrated a strong performance in 2023. We expect a good start of the year, and we'll unpack the year as the things progress.

是的。因此，希拉，我們預期整體低兩位數的指導包括原廠設備的持續高成長率。正如我們在 2023 年看到的那樣，這種情況將在 2024 年重演。也預計售後市場將出現兩位數成長。國防方面，2023 年我們的表現處於低個位數到中個位數。供應鏈限制仍然是最大的問題。隨著我們取得進展，我們預計 2024 年它的表現也將達到這個範圍。所以，但對我們來說最大的解鎖是供應鏈。我們在 2023 年展現了強勁的業績。我們預計今年會有一個良好的開端，隨著事情的進展，我們將揭開這一年的面紗。

Yes. So to be clear, I mean, no new signals from the OEs. They're continuing to place the same level of demand on us that they have been. And so that's what we're committed to try to deliver.

是的。需要明確的是，我的意思是，運營商沒有發出新訊號。他們繼續對我們提出與以往相同程度的要求。這就是我們致力於實現的目標。

Okay. Great. And then if I could ask one more. You've been asked every angle in terms of revenue growth acceleration outside of Aero, what do you need to see in the other 3 segments to hit the high end of guidance? Is it just all based on short cycle recovery and the timing of that? Or is it some additional price capture? If you can maybe talk about that.

好的。偉大的。然後我能否再問一個。有人問過您關於 Aero 以外的營收成長加速的各個角度，您需要在其他 3 個細分市場中看到什麼才能達到指導的高端？難道這一切都只是基於短週期恢復及其時機嗎？或者是一些額外的價格捕獲？如果可以的話也許可以談談。

Yes. Yes. The biggest variable is the short cycle recovery and the pace of it, which remains variable. I mean if you look at '24, setup for Honeywell in 3 buckets. Our backlog is up 8%, and we convert backlog at a pretty predictable rate. So that's something which is highly deterministic. Number two, the self-help actions we are driving to drive growth, the self-help actions includes price, that includes new products. I talked about high growth regions, aftermarket services. All that is going to help us to drive growth regardless of the market. And then the third variable is short cycle. If it returns quicker, we'll have an upper end of the growth, or we can beat it if it surprises everybody. And the vice versa, if it doesn't perform well during the course of the year, then we have the lower end of the guide.

是的。是的。最大的變數是短週期復甦及其速度，但仍存在變數。我的意思是，如果你看看 24 年，霍尼韋爾的設定分為 3 個部分。我們的積壓訂單增加了 8%，我們以相當可預測的速度轉換積壓訂單。所以這是高度確定性的事情。第二，我們為推動成長而採取的自助行動，自助行動包括價格，包括新產品。我談到了高成長地區、售後服務。無論市場如何，所有這些都將幫助我們推動成長。第三個變數是短週期。如果它恢復得更快，我們就會達到成長的上限，或者如果它讓每個人都感到驚訝，我們就可以超越它。反之亦然，如果它在一年中表現不佳，那麼我們的指南就會處於較低水平。

Our next question comes from the line of Andy Kaplowitz with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的安迪‧卡普洛維茨 (Andy Kaplowitz)。

Vimal, I just wanted to follow up on the commentary that you're on track to exceed the $25 billion of capital deployment guidance from '23 to '25. Obviously, you announced the Carrier deal, but does that commentary suggest continued more aggressive capital deployment? Does your M&A pipeline support that? And then could you update us on the progress in divesting the 10% of the sales you talked about previously?

Vimal，我只是想跟進您的評論，即您預計在 23 年至 25 年期間超過 250 億美元的資本部署指導。顯然，您宣布了與開利的交易，但該評論是否表明您將繼續進行更積極的資本部署？你們的併購管道支持這一點嗎？那麼您能否向我們介紹一下您之前談到的剝離 10% 銷售額的進展？

Yes. So I would say that our capital deployment strategy would be balanced, which maximizes shareholder return. That's what we are really targeting for. It will be the balance. As Greg mentioned earlier, we expect both M&A and share repurchases to be part of that element for 2024 and years to come. The pipeline is adequate at this point of time and activity remains strong. So we are constantly looking at the deal, which work in our algorithm. It has to be bolt-on. It has to help to drive our overall organic growth and generally meet our financial algorithm, which we have earlier talked about. On the part of the portfolio, which doesn't fit in well, we are going to drive action starting '24. Of course, we are not going to rush through that because we need to capture shareholder value, but you can anticipate some initial actions on that during 2024.

是的。所以我想說，我們的資本配置策略將是平衡的，這將最大化股東回報。這就是我們真正的目標。這將是平衡。正如格雷格之前提到的，我們預計併購和股票回購都將成為 2024 年及未來幾年的這一要素的一部分。目前管道充足，活動仍強勁。因此，我們不斷關注在我們的演算法中有效的交易。它必須是螺栓固定的。它必須有助於推動我們的整體有機成長，並整體上滿足我們之前討論過的財務演算法。對於不太適合的投資組合部分，我們將從 24 年開始推動行動。當然，我們不會倉促完成這項任務，因為我們需要獲取股東價值，但您可以預期 2024 年會就此採取一些初步行動。

Yes, maybe just to put numbers on, Andy. As we showed in that slide, I mean, we've been doing $8-ish billion per year. The simple math for 2024 says, just with Carrier, that number is 10 going in with just enough share repurchase to buy back the creep. So we're going to be sitting at 18 through 2 years towards the 25-plus number. So the high confidence that we're going to be above that level just with the math.

是的，也許只是為了統計數字，安迪。正如我們在幻燈片中所示，我的意思是，我們每年的銷售額約為 80 億美元。 2024 年的簡單計算表明，僅就 Carrier 而言，這個數字就是 10，而回購的股票剛好足以回購小股。因此，我們將在 18 歲到 2 歲的時間內實現 25 歲以上的目標。因此，我們非常有信心僅透過數學就能達到該水準。

And then just a quick follow-up. You managed to grow Aero margin by 20 basis points in Q4. Even with OE mix being against you and you talked about supply chain improving in '24, I know you're saying it will marginally stay in a tight range. But if supply chain does continue to improve, is there an opportunity there with all of your productivity projects in that segment?

然後進行快速跟進。第四季度，您的航空利潤率成功成長了 20 個基點。即使 OE 組合對您不利，並且您談到了 24 年供應鏈的改善，我知道您是說供應鏈將略微保持在一個狹窄的範圍內。但如果供應鏈確實繼續改善，那麼您在該領域的所有生產力項目是否有機會？

Look, I mean, there are -- there is a volume growth there, which will continue, and the volume leverage gets offset by the OE mix, which I talked earlier, the OE mix remained strong. But we are also, Andy, investing into Aerospace. The volume growth is not coming accidentally. We have invested into our supply chain operations, supplier recovery, which is demonstrating the continuous volume growth occurred in '23 and '24. So when you put those facts together, that really drives the margin forecast for Aero at this point.

看，我的意思是，那裡有銷售增長，這種增長將持續下去，銷量槓桿被原廠產品組合所抵消，我之前談到過，原廠產品組合仍然強勁。但安迪，我們也在投資航空航太。銷量的成長並非偶然。我們對供應鏈營運、供應商復甦進行了投資，證明了 23 年和 24 年銷售的持續成長。因此，當你將這些事實放在一起時，這確實推動了 Aero 目前的利潤率預測。

And our next question will come from the line of Peter Arment with Baird.

我們的下一個問題將來自彼得·阿門特（Peter Arment）和貝爾德（Baird）的路線。

Greg, just a quick one. You mentioned in just kind of the legacy segment, SPS, you were talking about warehouse, that the pipeline of kind of in the projects business, that there were some signs that there was some -- at least some improvement there. Maybe if you could just give us a little color there just because it's -- obviously, it's been -- that particular area has had a big downturn here.

格雷格，請快速說一下。您提到在遺留部分，SPS，您正在談論倉庫，專案業務中的某種管道，有一些跡象表明存在一些 - 至少有一些改進。也許你能給我們一點顏色，因為它——顯然，它一直是——這個特定的地區在這裡經歷了一場大的衰退。

I can start there and Greg can join. Look, the pipeline -- if I compare simple facts, our pipeline in Jan of '24 compared to Jan of '23 for Warehouse Automation projects, it's up nearly 30%. So what it tells us is that the basic value proposition and the long-term trend of Warehouse Automation are intact, but customers willingness to invest in this very tight market or uncertain market is what is holding them back for making capital decisions.

我可以從那裡開始，格雷格也可以加入。看，管道 - 如果我比較簡單的事實，我們 24 年 1 月的管道與 23 年 1 月的倉庫自動化項目相比，增長了近 30%。所以它告訴我們的是，倉庫自動化的基本價值主張和長期趨勢完好無損，但客戶在這個非常緊張的市場或不確定的市場上投資的意願阻礙了他們做出資本決策。

So we remain absolutely convicted on this business. And the foundational actions we have taken on continue to grow our aftermarket, they are really paying off. I mean our aftermarket businesses crossed $0.5 billion mark in 2023. We expect double-digit growth in aftermarket in 2024. And you can expect the business almost cupping half projects and half aftermarket in this year. So as the market confidence returns, we'll see the growth back, and that's supported by the pipeline we have and activity in the market.

因此，我們對這項業務仍堅信不疑。我們採取的基礎行動繼續發展我們的售後市場，它們確實得到了回報。我的意思是，我們的售後市場業務將在2023 年突破5 億美元大關。我們預計2024 年售後市場將實現兩位數增長。您可以預計，今年的業務幾乎涵蓋了一半的項目和一半的售後市場。因此，隨著市場信心的恢復，我們將看到成長的回歸，這得到了我們擁有的管道和市場活動的支持。

And our next question will come from the line of Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題將來自高盛的喬·里奇。

Maybe circling back to Nigel's question on pricing. The 3 points it's embedded into your expectations, is that disproportionately coming from Aero? Or how do I just kind of think about pricing across the segments?

也許回到奈傑爾關於定價的問題。您的期望中有 3 點，這是否不成比例地來自 Aero？或者我該如何考慮跨細分市場的定價？

Yes. So Aero is probably on the mid- to lower end of that, just given all the contract nature of their business. And the other businesses -- the other 3 segments are going to be a bit higher than that overall. So that's really -- without being too specific, that's sort of directionally or notionally, how you should think about it.

是的。因此，考慮到其業務的所有合約性質，Aero 可能處於中低端。而其他業務——其他 3 個細分市場將比整體略高一些。所以這確實是——不太具體，這就是方向性或概念性的，你應該如何思考它。

Okay. Great. And then a quick follow-up. Just circling, I'm trying to square the commentary on HBT and the destocking that you're seeing in the products business with -- obviously, you're excited about the security acquisition and the growth profile for that business appears to be different. I'm just trying to square those comments, and maybe you can kind of help me with what you're seeing within your own security business today.

好的。偉大的。然後快速跟進。順便說一句，我試圖將 HBT 的評論與您在產品業務中看到的去庫存進行協調——顯然，您對安全收購感到興奮，而且該業務的成長狀況似乎有所不同。我只是想糾正這些評論，也許您可以幫助我解決您今天在自己的安全業務中所看到的情況。

No. As I mentioned before, we expect the front end of the year growth to be more driven by solutions side of the business. We are carrying forward meaningful backlog, both in projects and services. And as the year progresses, we expect short-cycle recovery to be the key factor for growth in the -- as the year passes along. And net-net, we expect low single-digit growth in Building Technologies, but strong margin expansion. Our commercial excellence actions are in place, and we remain confident that we're going to have a meaningful progress in the year, both on growth and margin expansion.

不會。正如我之前提到的，我們預計今年上半年的成長將更多地受到業務解決方案的推動。我們正在推動有意義的專案和服務積壓工作。隨著時間的推移，我們預期短週期復甦將成為經濟成長的關鍵因素。從淨值到淨值，我們預計建築技術業務將實現低個位數成長，但利潤率將強勁成長。我們的商業卓越行動已經到位，我們仍然有信心今年將在成長和利潤擴張方面取得有意義的進展。

Yes. I mean I would just say, Joe, zoom out for a minute, and we're coming up towards the end of a 3-year period where, again, COVID, then followed by big supply chain constraints, followed by massive inflation -- and that's why you hear everyone talking about what's going on in inventory stocks all over. And yes, as that thing normalizes, that's going to make things clear across many of our products businesses, including HBT. But more broadly, again, zooming out, we love where this business is going and also creating that sizable position in security with a very attractive asset that we're bringing on from Carrier.

是的。我的意思是，我只想說，喬，把鏡頭拉遠一點，我們即將迎來三年期的末尾，再次出現新冠疫情，然後是嚴重的供應鏈限制，然後是大規模的通貨膨脹——這就是為什麼你會聽到每個人都在談論庫存狀況。是的，隨著事情正常化，我們的許多產品業務（包括 HBT）的情況將會變得清晰。但更廣泛地說，再次縮小範圍，我們喜歡這項業務的發展方向，並利用我們從營運商帶來的非常有吸引力的資產在安全領域創造了相當大的地位。

Yes, we're very excited about that opportunity because we think that's going to be accretive growth across the portfolio for us. So it's just a matter of, I would say, differentiating between the here now and the medium to longer term with those comments.

是的，我們對這個機會感到非常興奮，因為我們認為這將為我們的投資組合帶來增值成長。所以我想說，這只是一個用這些評論來區分現在和中長期的問題。

Thank you. I would now like to turn the call back over to CEO, Vimal Kapur, for closing remarks.

謝謝。現在我想將電話轉回給執行長維馬爾·卡普爾 (Vimal Kapur)，讓其致閉幕詞。

Thank you. I want to thank all our shareholders for your ongoing support, and our Honeywell colleagues who continue to enable us to outperform in any environment. Our future is bright, and we look forward to updating you on our progress as we execute on our commitments. Thank you very much for listening, and please stay safe and healthy.

謝謝。我要感謝我們所有股東的持續支持，以及我們的霍尼韋爾同事，他們繼續使我們能夠在任何環境中表現出色。我們的未來是光明的，我們期待向您通報我們履行承諾的最新進展。非常感謝您的收聽，請保持安全和健康。

This concludes today's conference call. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

今天的電話會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。