奇異 (GE) 2023 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen. And welcome to the General Electric Fourth Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) My name is Liz and I will be your conference coordinator today. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today's conference, Steve Winoker, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please proceed.

美好的一天，女士們先生們。歡迎參加通用電氣 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）我叫 Liz，今天我將擔任您的會議協調員。 （操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。現在我想將會議議程交給今天會議的東道主、投資者關係副總裁 Steve Winoker。請繼續。

Thanks, Liz. Welcome to GE's Fourth Quarter 2023 earnings call. I'm joined by Chairman and CEO, Larry Culp; and CFO, Rahul Ghai. We're also pleased to have GE Vernova's CEO, Scott Strazik here to share additional insights on performance and business guidance.

謝謝，莉茲。歡迎參加 GE 2023 年第四季財報電話會議。董事長兼執行長 Larry Culp 也加入了我的行列。和首席財務官拉胡爾·蓋伊。我們也很高興邀請 GE Vernova 執行長 Scott Strazik 在此分享更多有關績效和業務指導的見解。

Many of the statements we're making are forward-looking and based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. As described in our SEC filings and website, those elements may change as the world changes. Over to Larry.

我們所做的許多聲明都是前瞻性的，並且基於我們對世界和我們今天所看到的業務的最佳看法。正如我們在 SEC 文件和網站中所述，這些要素可能會隨著世界的變化而變化。交給拉里。

Steve, thank you and good morning, everyone. GE made tremendous progress in 2023 with excellent operating results, the successful spin of GE HealthCare and the ongoing lean transformation of our company. 2024 will be a momentous year as we launch GE Aerospace and GE Vernova in early April.

史蒂夫，謝謝大家，大家早安。 GE憑藉著出色的經營業績、GE醫療保健的成功轉型以及公司持續的精實轉型，在2023年取得了巨大進步。 2024 年將是重要的一年，我們將在 4 月初推出 GE Aerospace 和 GE Vernova。

Looking at our results, we more than tripled our earnings and generated almost 70% more free cash flow in 2023. GE Aerospace drove double-digit revenue, profit and cash growth with continued strength in commercial engines and services. GE Vernova delivered meaningfully better results as Renewable Energy and Power together generated positive profit and free cash flow. In the year ahead, we expect both GE Aerospace and GE Vernova to continue on their respective upward trajectories.

從我們的業績來看，到2023 年，我們的收入增長了兩倍多，自由現金流增加了近70%。GE 航空航太憑藉商用引擎和服務的持續強勁，推動了兩位數的收入、利潤和現金成長。由於再生能源和電力共同創造了正利潤和自由現金流，GE Vernova 取得了有意義的更好表現。未來一年，我們預計 GE Aerospace 和 GE Vernova 將繼續保持各自的上升軌跡。

Let me spend a moment on each. GE Aerospace is an exceptional franchise with our fleet of 44,000 commercial engines and 26,000 rotorcraft and combat engines, plus extensive aftermarket services representing 70% of revenue. We live our purpose each day to invent the future of flight, lift people up and bring them home safely. It's a responsibility we take very seriously and our teams are focused on safety, quality, delivery and cost, in that order in everything we do to support our customers in the industry.

讓我花一點時間來討論每個問題。 GE 航空航太公司是一家卓越的特許經營公司，擁有 44,000 台商用發動機和 26,000 台旋翼機和戰鬥機發動機，以及佔收入 70% 的廣泛售後服務。我們每天都在實踐我們的目標：發明飛行的未來，載人飛行並安全回家。這是我們非常認真對待的責任，我們的團隊專注於安全、品質、交付和成本，按照這個順序，我們所做的一切都是為了支持行業客戶。

Strategically, today, we're executing to meet customer needs for engines and services. Despite the challenged supply chain environment, in the quarter, total engine deliveries were up 11% sequentially, including defense, up over 60%. We delivered 1,570 LEAP engines, representing 38% growth, yet with more to do going forward. As part of our lean transformation, we're developing connected flow using model lines to improve deliveries. By focusing on key constraints, we've reduced lead times, for example, over 40% on our ceramic matrix composite components. And in services, we've improved LEAP shop visit turnaround times by double digits.

從戰略上講，今天我們正在努力滿足客戶對引擎和服務的需求。儘管供應鏈環境面臨挑戰，本季引擎總交付量仍較上季成長 11%，其中國防引擎交付量成長超過 60%。我們交付了 1,570 台 LEAP 發動機，成長了 38%，但未來還有更多工作要做。作為精實轉型的一部分，我們正在使用模型生產線開發互聯流程來改善交付。透過專注於關鍵限制，我們縮短了陶瓷基複合材料零件的交付時間，例如超過 40%。在服務方面，我們將 LEAP 商店訪問週轉時間提高了兩位數。

Lean is not only helping us with delivery but more importantly, when it comes to safety and quality. The team in Rutland, Vermont used lean problem-solving fundamentals to address recurring defects in our GEnx low-pressure turbine blades. This improved first-time yield by more than 50%. Lean actions like these within our plants and in partnership with suppliers are driving improvements across GE Aerospace.

精益不僅幫助我們交付，更重要的是，在安全和品質方面。佛蒙特州拉特蘭的團隊採用精實解決問題的基本原理來解決 GEnx 低壓渦輪葉片中反覆出現的缺陷。這使首次良率提高了 50% 以上。我們工廠內部以及與供應商合作的此類精益行動正在推動整個 GE 航空航太公司的改進。

For tomorrow, we're building our $150 billion plus backlog. At the Dubai Airshow, GE Aerospace, along with our partners received over 450 engine commitments and several service agreements across both widebodies and narrowbodies. This included an Emirates order for 202 GE9X engines and spares and a long-term services agreement to power its upcoming Boeing 777X fleet. And we're keeping our customers' fleets flying with durability and maintenance enhancements such as our LEAP 1A fuel nozzle cooling system that's on its way to fleet introduction.

為了明天，我們正在積壓 1500 億美元以上的積壓訂單。在杜拜航展上，GE 航太公司與我們的合作夥伴一起收到了超過 450 台發動機的承諾以及涵蓋寬體機和窄體機的多項服務協議。其中包括阿聯酋航空訂購 202 台 GE9X 發動機和備件，以及為其即將推出的波音 777X 機隊提供動力的長期服務協議。我們透過耐用性和維護增強來維持客戶機隊的飛行，例如我們即將在機隊中引入的 LEAP 1A 燃油噴嘴冷卻系統。

And for the future, we're investing in R&D and developing next-generation technologies. Recently, NASA selected GE Aerospace for phase 2 of the Hybrid Thermally Efficient Core program, which will significantly enhance fuel efficiency and reduce emissions, improvements we'll leverage in our RISE program.

對於未來，我們正在投資研發和開發下一代技術。最近，美國太空總署 (NASA) 選擇 GE 航空航太公司參與混合熱效率核心計畫的第二階段，該計畫將顯著提高燃油效率並減少排放，我們將在 RISE 計畫中利用這些改進。

And the National Defense Authorization Act authorized funding for the adaptive engine transition program and the next-generation advanced propulsion program, which will help provide cutting-edge future military capabilities. All said, GE Aerospace is accelerating our progress with lean and driving value long term, all in service of our customers who carry the 3 billion people traveling with our engines under wing each year.

《國防授權法》授權為自適應發動機過渡計劃和下一代先進推進計劃提供資金，這將有助於提供尖端的未來軍事能力。總而言之，GE 航空航太公司正在以精益和長期推動價值的方式加速我們的進步，這一切都是為了我們的客戶，他們每年帶著我們的引擎載著 30 億人出行。

Over to GE Vernova, our ambition is to electrify and decarbonize the world with our technologies helping to generate approximately 30% of the world's electricity and where services represent 65% of our backlog, our incumbency and scale position us to lead.

至於 GE Vernova，我們的目標是透過我們的技術幫助世界實現電氣化和脫碳，發電量佔全球約 30%，而服務占我們積壓訂單的 65%，我們的任職和規模使我們處於領先地位。

We've made a lot of progress at Vernova. I'll give you the high-level framing and Scott's here today with additional color. Power delivered strong growth, profit and free cash. Grid was profitable for the full year. And onshore delivered another quarter of profitability. Offshore remained challenging but I really like the way we're lean along with better commercial selectivity and underwriting to improve our outlook. GE Vernova will stand on its own soon. I'm proud of the team's work to strengthen these businesses.

我們在 Vernova 取得了很大進展。我將為您提供高級框架，斯科特今天在這裡提供額外的顏色。 Power 帶來了強勁的成長、利潤和自由現金。 Grid全年獲利。陸上又實現了一個季度的獲利。離岸業務仍然充滿挑戰，但我真的很喜歡我們的精益方式以及更好的商業選擇性和承保來改善我們的前景。 GE Vernova 很快就會獨立。我為團隊為加強這些業務所做的工作感到自豪。

And on a more personal note, I met Scott during my very first GE site visit. I have seen his leadership in action, as he's led the team in executing the impressive turnaround at Gas Power and now the strong momentum building with our onshore and grid businesses. Importantly, Scott is an ardent student of lean and I'm highly confident that he is the right person to lead GE Vernova into the future.

就我個人而言，我在第一次訪問 GE 現場時遇到了 Scott。我看到了他的領導力，他帶領團隊在天然氣發電公司實現了令人印象深刻的轉變，現在我們的陸上和電網業務正在形成強勁的勢頭。重要的是，Scott 是一名精益的熱心學生，我非常有信心他是領導 GE Vernova 走向未來的合適人選。

Turning to Slide 3 with our stronger, more valuable businesses delivering now, GE Aerospace and GE Vernova are ready to go. We've assembled 2 extraordinary Boards, bringing together domain expertise, diverse perspectives and leadership experience to help GE Aerospace and GE Vernova rise to their sharper, more focused missions. We've also further simplified and strengthened our balance sheet, fully exiting our AerCap equity stake.

轉向幻燈片 3，我們現在正在交付更強大、更有價值的業務，GE 航空航天和 GE Vernova 已做好準備。我們組成了兩個非凡的董事會，匯集了領域專業知識、多元化的觀點和領導經驗，幫助 GE 航空航太公司和 GE Vernova 實現更清晰、更專注的使命。我們也進一步簡化和加強了我們的資產負債表，完全退出了我們的 AerCap 股權。

Looking ahead, GE Vernova plans to publicly file its Form-10 next month. Then GE Vernova and GE Aerospace will host Investor Days on March 6 and 7, respectively, in New York City. Both teams are excited to share how we'll create greater value for our customers and shareholders alike. We hope to see many of you there.

展望未來，GE Vernova 計劃下個月公開提交 Form-10。隨後，GE Vernova 和 GE Aerospace 將分別於 3 月 6 日和 7 日在紐約舉辦投資者日活動。兩個團隊都很高興分享我們將如何為客戶和股東創造更大的價值。我們希望在那裡見到你們中的許多人。

Now over to Rahul.

現在輪到拉胡爾。

Thank you, Larry. Good morning, everyone. Turning to Slide 4. We will speak to results on an organic basis. We closed out the year with another solid quarter. Orders were up across all segments driven by services up 24%. Revenue increased 13% with all segments up double digits. Adjusted operating profit was up 20%, supporting margin expansion of 50 basis points, driven by volume and price, net of inflation. This was partially offset by negative mix from higher equipment and investments in growth.

謝謝你，拉里。大家，早安。轉向幻燈片 4。我們將在有機的基礎上談論結果。我們以又一個穩健的季度結束了這一年。在服務成長 24% 的推動下，所有細分市場的訂單均有所成長。營收成長 13%，所有細分市場均達到兩位數成長。受銷量和價格（扣除通膨因素）的推動，調整後營業利潤成長 20%，支持利潤率擴張 50 個基點。這部分被設備成長和投資成長帶來的負面影響所抵消。

Adjusted EPS was $1.03, up 56%. Free cash flow was $3 billion from stronger earnings and positive working capital largely driven by progress collections, including recent sizable orders. This was partially offset by payables, including the actions we have taken to support our suppliers.

調整後每股收益為 1.03 美元，成長 56%。自由現金流為 30 億美元，得益於強勁的盈利和積極的營運資金，這主要是由進度收款（包括最近的大量訂單）推動的。這被應付帳款部分抵消，包括我們為支持供應商而採取的行動。

For the full year, revenue increased 17%. Aerospace and renewables led the way, benefiting from robust demand, better execution and pricing. Services was up 15% and equipment up 19%. Profit, EPS and cash, all finished above the high end of our guidance.

全年營收成長 17%。受益於強勁的需求、更好的執行和定價，航空航太和再生能源處於領先地位。服務成長 15%，設備成長 19%。利潤、每股收益和現金均高於我們指導的上限。

Adjusted operating profit increased $2.5 billion to $5.7 billion. Adjusted margin expanded by over 300 basis points, driven by aerospace growth, sizable renewables improvement and price across the 3 businesses, partially offset by inflation on long lead items and investments in growth. Adjusted EPS increased more than $2 supported by strong profit growth and lower interest from debt reduction. Free cash flow was up over $2 billion to $5.2 billion, driven by significantly better earnings.

調整後營業利潤增加 25 億美元，達到 57 億美元。受航空航太成長、再生能源大幅改善和 3 項業務價格的推動，調整後利潤率擴大了 300 多個基點，部分被長週期項目的通膨和成長投資所抵消。由於強勁的利潤成長和債務削減帶來的利息下降，調整後每股收益成長超過 2 美元。在獲利顯著改善的推動下，自由現金流增加超過 20 億美元，達到 52 億美元。

In 2023, working capital was a $1.6 billion source of cash from progress collections, partially offset by inventory build given robust growth and continued supply chain challenges.

2023 年，營運資金是來自進度收款的 16 億美元現金來源，由於強勁成長和持續的供應鏈挑戰，部分被庫存增加所抵銷。

A moment on corporate. We ended the year with just over $1 billion of cash use and adjusted costs of roughly $460 million. This improved year-over-year due to lower functional expenses and higher interest income. Overall, it represents significant progress since 2021 when costs were $1.2 billion.

關於企業的一刻。年底，我們的現金使用量略高於 10 億美元，調整後的成本約為 4.6 億美元。由於職能費用降低和利息收入增加，這種情況較去年同期有所改善。總體而言，這代表了自 2021 年以來的重大進展，當時的成本為 12 億美元。

We are pleased to see Digital turn profitable as the team prepares to firmly join GE Vernova. Our industry-leading software helps utilities, grid operators and others address the growing complexity of energy transition. And GE Aerospace and GE Vernova are ready to go. The teams are fully staffed and corporate headcount, which was close to 5,000 just a few years ago, stands at less than 200 people, who will be with us into second quarter to execute the final spin. This temporary cost in the first half of 2024 is embedded in GE Aerospace's full year guidance.

我們很高興看到 Digital 實現盈利，團隊準備堅定加入 GE Vernova。我們領先業界的軟體可協助公用事業公司、電網營運商和其他機構解決日益複雜的能源轉型問題。 GE 航空航太公司和 GE Vernova 已做好準備。這些團隊人員配備齊全，公司員工人數從幾年前接近 5,000 人減少到不到 200 人，他們將在第二季度與我們一起執行最後的旋轉。 2024 年上半年的臨時成本已納入 GE 航空航太公司的全年指引。

Stepping back, we are pleased with our performance in 2023. In 2024, on a stand-alone basis, we expect GE Aerospace and GE Vernova to grow revenue, profit and cash. We will share more on business guidance shortly.

退一步說，我們對 2023 年的表現感到滿意。到 2024 年，我們預計 GE Aerospace 和 GE Vernova 的營收、利潤和現金將會成長。我們將很快分享更多有關業務指導的資訊。

Now turning to GE Aerospace. This quarter, demand remained robust with GE and CFM departures growing high teens year-over-year. Orders were up 10% with solid services and commercial engine orders. Revenue was up 12%, driven by commercial, up 15%. Profit was up 8%, benefiting from increased services volume and pricing, net of inflation. This was partially offset by unfavorable equipment mix from the expected higher install and over spare engine deliveries and higher investments.

現在轉向通用電氣航空航天公司。本季度，需求依然強勁，GE 和 CFM 的離職人數較去年同期成長了十幾位。憑藉可靠的服務和商用引擎訂單，訂單增加了 10%。在商業的推動下，營收成長了 12%，成長了 15%。由於服務量和定價的增加（扣除通貨膨脹因素），利潤增加了 8%。這被預期安裝量增加、備用引擎交付過多和投資增加造成的不利設備組合所部分抵消。

Reported margins were roughly flat year-over-year and down 70 basis points organically as unfavorable mix and investments offset higher volume and price, net of inflation.

報告的利潤率同比大致持平，有機下降了 70 個基點，因為不利的組合和投資抵消了銷量和價格（扣除通貨膨脹因素）的增加。

In commercial, services revenue was up 23% from higher volume, pricing and heavier work scopes. External spare parts increased with higher LEAP volume and internal shop visits were up slightly.

在商業領域，由於數量、定價和工作範圍的擴大，服務收入增加了 23%。外部備件隨著 LEAP 數量的增加而增加，內部車間訪問量略有增加。

Lean is enabling us to create new capacity to meet higher demand and decrease turnaround time and cost. For example, our MRO team in Prestwick, Scotland used lean to remove 76 hours of waste from their engine disassembly process, which will help them to go from servicing 3.5 engines a week to 5 engines a week.

精益使我們能夠創造新的產能來滿足更高的需求並減少週轉時間和成本。例如，我們位於蘇格蘭普雷斯蒂克的 MRO 團隊使用精益消除了引擎拆卸過程中 76 小時的浪費，這將幫助他們從每週維修 3.5 台引擎減少到每週維修 5 台引擎。

Revenue grew 1% with LEAP deliveries up 22%. As expected, our mix continues to shift towards installations.

營收成長 1%，LEAP 交付量成長 22%。正如預期的那樣，我們的組合繼續轉向安裝。

In Defense, book-to-bill was 1x, underscoring solid demand and the quality of our franchises. Revenue was down 1%, driven by lower services while equipment grew double digits from higher combat engine deliveries. For the year, revenue was up 22%. Commercial services increased 30% with external spare parts up significantly and internal shop visits up 10%. Commercial engines grew 21%, with total engine deliveries up 25% and spare engine ratio consistent with 2022.

在國防領域，訂單出貨比為 1 倍，凸顯了強勁的需求和我們特許經營的品質。由於服務減少，收入下降了 1%，而作戰發動機交付量增加導致設備增長了兩位數。今年，收入成長了 22%。商業服務成長了 30%，外部備件大幅成長，內部商店訪問量增加了 10%。商用引擎成長 21%，引擎總交付量成長 25%，備用引擎比例與 2022 年持平。

Defense grew 7% with book-to-bill of approximately 1.2x for the second consecutive year and orders were up 9%. Profit was $6.1 billion, increasing over $1 billion or 25% from services growth and pricing, net of inflation. This was more than offset -- this more than offset negative mix from higher LEAP volume and investments. Margins of 19.2% expanded 90 basis points on a reported basis and 50 basis points on an organic basis. Free cash flow of $5.7 billion increased approximately $800 million with improving earnings and working capital more than offsetting AD&A pressure.

國防業務成長 7%，訂單出貨比連續第二年成長約 1.2 倍，訂單成長 9%。利潤為 61 億美元，扣除通貨膨脹因素後，由於服務成長和定價，利潤增加了 10 億美元以上，即 25%。這完全抵消了 LEAP 數量和投資增加的負面影響。 19.2% 的利潤率在報告基礎上擴大了 90 個基點，在有機基礎上擴大了 50 個基點。 57 億美元的自由現金流增加了約 8 億美元，獲利和營運資本的改善足以抵消 AD&A 壓力。

Now I'll hand it to Scott, who will cover GE Vernova.

現在我將把它交給 Scott，他將報告 GE Vernova。

Thanks, Rahul. It's a pleasure to join you, Larry and Steve, on the last GE earnings call before we launch GE Vernova, a purpose-built company that's enabling electrification and decarbonization.

謝謝，拉胡爾。拉里和史蒂夫，很高興能在我們推出 GE Vernova 之前參加最後一次 GE 財報電話會議，這是一家致力於實現電氣化和脫碳的專門公司。

We've built a strong, experienced leadership team and we're excited to welcome Jessica Uhl to our leadership team as President, overseeing technology, innovation and growth.

我們已經建立了一支強大、經驗豐富的領導團隊，我們很高興歡迎 Jessica Uhl 加入我們的領導團隊擔任總裁，負責監督技術、創新和成長。

I'm encouraged by what our team accomplished in 2023 as we deliver meaningfully better results now. Our Renewable Energy and Power businesses combined drove double-digit revenue growth. We're slightly profitable, improving profit over $1 billion and generated $600 million of cash this year.

我對我們的團隊在 2023 年的成就感到鼓舞，因為我們現在已經取得了明顯更好的成果。我們的再生能源和電力業務共同推動了兩位數的收入成長。我們今年略有獲利，利潤超過 10 億美元，並產生了 6 億美元的現金。

At renewable energy, our operational turnaround produced sizable improvement. In the fourth quarter, orders were just over $5 billion, including the cancellation of a large offshore order that was originally booked in 2Q '23. Excluding this cancellation, orders grew over 20% led by stronger onshore equipment and repower. We also secured a record 2.4 gigawatt order to support Pattern Energy's SunZia wind project expected to be the largest wind project in U.S. history.

在再生能源領域，我們的營運轉型帶來了相當大的改善。第四季的訂單金額略高於 50 億美元，其中包括取消了最初在 2023 年第二季預訂的大型離岸訂單。排除這次取消的情況，在陸上設備和電力更新的推動下，訂單增加了 20% 以上。我們還獲得了創紀錄的 2.4 吉瓦訂單，以支持 Pattern Energy 的 SunZia 風電項目，預計將成為美國歷史上最大的風電項目。

Revenue increased double digits. Grid grew double digits for the fifth consecutive quarter. Offshore more than doubled as we deliver our existing backlog. And onshore grew, driven by North America equipment volume. Profit improved over $100 million as onshore and grid more than offset pressure at offshore.

營收成長兩位數。 Grid 連續第五個季度達到兩位數成長。當我們交付現有的積壓訂單時，離岸訂單數量增加了一倍以上。在北美設備數量的推動下，陸上成長。由於陸上和電網抵消了海上壓力，利潤增加了超過 1 億美元。

Looking at the year. Orders were $23 billion, up over 50% with revenue up 17%. Profit improved roughly $1 billion driven by price, quality and productivity in onshore and grid plus the absence of last year's largely onshore-related charges. Free cash flow was negative $1.5 billion, which improved by over $0.5 billion from better earnings and higher down payments.

看著年份。訂單金額達 230 億美元，成長超過 50%，營收成長 17%。由於陸上和電網的價格、品質和生產力以及去年主要與陸上相關的費用的取消，利潤增加了約 10 億美元。自由現金流為負 15 億美元，由於獲利改善和首付增加，自由現金流增加了超過 5 億美元。

Looking closer at the businesses. At grid, price and higher volume enabled full year profitability following 3 consecutive quarters of profit, while our backlog more than doubled to over $12 billion with average margins and backlog increasing approximately 5 points.

仔細觀察企業。在電網，價格和更高的銷量在連續3 個季度盈利後實現了全年盈利，而我們的積壓訂單增加了一倍多，達到120 億美元以上，平均利潤和積壓訂單增加了約5 個百分點。

Lean is core here. Take our Pennsylvania facility that makes transmission circuit breakers. We increased flow and doubled production capacity, helping reduce product lead times by about 35%. This will speed up delivery to customers at a time when demand is rising.

精益是這裡的核心。以我們賓州生產輸電斷路器的工廠為例。我們增加了流量並將產能提高了一倍，幫助產品交貨時間縮短了約 35%。這將在需求上升時加快向客戶的交付速度。

Onshore has been profitable for 2 consecutive quarters. North America equipment orders increased more than 70%. We've grown our global onshore equipment backlog roughly 40% to nearly $9 billion and approximately 70% of the backlog is North America. Importantly, margins in our total onshore equipment backlog expanded over 10 points due to continued selectivity and pricing.

陸上已連續兩季獲利。北美設備訂單成長超過70%。我們的全球陸上設備積壓訂單成長了約 40%，達到近 90 億美元，其中約 70% 的積壓訂單來自北美。重要的是，由於持續的選擇性和定價，我們的陸上設備儲備總量的利潤率擴大了 10 個百分點以上。

We're delivering reliable, high-performing fleets with roughly 60% of our proactive enhancement in the field completed with more to come. We streamlined our product lineup, focusing on higher-quality workhorse products, roughly 70% of 2023 volume. And we're still increasing productivity and lowering fixed costs significantly.

我們正在提供可靠、高效能的機隊，我們在該領域的主動增強工作已完成約 60%，未來還會有更多。我們精簡了產品陣容，專注於更高品質的主力產品，約佔 2023 年銷售量的 70%。我們仍在大幅提高生產力並降低固定成本。

Offshore wind was challenging with losses of roughly $1.1 billion in '23. We're executing the existing backlog, improving productivity with lean. We're starting 2024 with an equipment backlog down to roughly $4 billion, which we expect to largely complete over the next 2 years.

離岸風電面臨挑戰，2023 年損失約 11 億美元。我們正在執行現有的積壓工作，透過精實提高生產力。從 2024 年開始，我們的設備積壓將降至約 40 億美元，預計在未來 2 年內基本完成。

Longer term, offshore wind should play a key role in the energy transition. The industry is beginning to reset and while it does, we'll be highly selective on adding to the backlog.

從長遠來看，離岸風電應該在能源轉型中發揮關鍵作用。該行業正在開始重置，在此過程中，我們將非常有選擇性地添加積壓訂單。

Turning to Power. We delivered another strong year, led by Gas Power. Looking at the quarter, orders increased 4% with gas services growing double digits. Equipment orders declined largely as we exit steam new build, partially offset by higher aeroderivatives. Revenue was up 12% driven by gas. Equipment revenue grew, driven by aeroderivative and heavy-duty gas turbines.

轉向電源。在天然氣發電公司的帶領下，我們又迎來了強勁的一年。從本季來看，訂單成長了 4%，其中天然氣服務成長了兩位數。隨著我們退出蒸汽新建項目，設備訂單大幅下降，但航空衍生品的成長部分抵消了這一影響。在天然氣的推動下，營收成長了 12%。在航改和重型燃氣渦輪機的推動下，設備收入成長。

Services were strong with higher contractual outages and upgrades. Profit was over $750 million with low double-digit margins driven by services strength. As expected, margins contracted given higher equipment volume. In an individual quarter, additional units may weigh on margins but this drives long-term growth in higher-margin services and we're always focused on price and productivity to offset inflation.

服務表現強勁，合約中斷和升級較多。在服務實力的推動下，利潤超過 7.5 億美元，利潤率較低，達到兩位數。正如預期的那樣，由於設備數量增加，利潤率下降。在單一季度，額外的單位可能會影響利潤率，但這會推動利潤率較高的服務的長期成長，而且我們始終關注價格和生產力以抵消通貨膨脹。

For the year, revenue grew 7%. We delivered 58 heavy-duty gas turbines with 14 HA. Services were strong, up mid-single digits, led by gas. Profit of roughly $1.4 billion grew by 10%. Importantly, gas achieved double-digit margins this year. Here, lean is enabling higher productivity and growth. For example, our gas repairs team in Mexico created standard work to reduce cycle time and cost, decreasing lead time by 75% and operating hours per unit by 44%. This is helping us deliver faster for our customers.

今年，收入成長了 7%。我們交付了 58 台重型燃氣渦輪機，其中 14 台 HA。服務業表現強勁，在天然氣的帶動下實現了中個位數的成長。利潤約 14 億美元，成長 10%。重要的是，天然氣今年實現了兩位數的利潤率。在這裡，精益正在實現更高的生產力和成長。例如，我們在墨西哥的天然氣維修團隊創建了標準工作來縮短週期時間和成本，將交貨時間縮短了 75%，將單位運行時間縮短了 44%。這有助於我們更快地為客戶提供服務。

Free cash flow is over $2 billion, up roughly $200 million. Power continues to be a strong, reliable source of cash generation. We're pleased with Power's performance, a strong growing business where higher-margin services comprise around 80% of the backlog.

自由現金流超過 20 億美元，增加約 2 億美元。電力仍然是強大、可靠的現金產生來源。我們對 Power 的業績感到滿意，這是一家成長強勁的業務，其中利潤率較高的服務約佔積壓訂單的 80%。

Now I'll turn it back to Rahul to discuss guidance.

現在我將把它轉回拉胡爾來討論指導。

Thanks, Scott. With the spin just around the corner, first quarter will be the last time are reporting combined GE results, including GE Aerospace and GE Vernova.

謝謝，斯科特。隨著旋轉即將到來，第一季將是最後一次報告 GE 合併業績，包括 GE Aerospace 和 GE Vernova。

For this first quarter, we expect high single-digit revenue growth driven by GE Aerospace. Adjusted EPS of $0.60 to $0.65, more than doubling year-over-year, driven by profit improvement and the absence of preferred stock dividend and free cash flow growth in line with net income growth.

我們預計第一季營收將在通用電氣航空航太公司的推動下實現高個位數成長。調整後每股收益為 0.60 美元至 0.65 美元，同比增長一倍多，這得益於利潤改善、優先股股息缺失以及自由現金流增長與淨利潤增長一致。

Our 2024 annual guidance reflects each business operating independently for the full year, incorporating stand-alone and other impacts that each will incur separately.

我們的 2024 年年度指引反映了全年各業務獨立運營的情況，納入了各自單獨產生的影響和其他影響。

I'll now hand it over to Scott and Larry to share the overall GE Vernova and GE Aerospace guides and we will provide further details for both businesses in March. Scott, back to you.

我現在將把它交給 Scott 和 Larry，分享 GE Vernova 和 GE Aerospace 的整體指南，我們將在三月提供這兩家公司的更多詳細資訊。史考特，回到你身邊。

Thanks, Rahul. GE Vernova is building momentum, expecting substantial profit and free cash flow growth in 2024. We see solid organic growth with revenue between $34 billion to $35 billion, up low- to mid-single digits from 2023 and adjusted EBITDA margin at the higher end of the mid-single digits range, up from low single-digit EBITDA margin in '23. Supporting this outlook is continued price, productivity and benefits from restructuring efforts.

謝謝，拉胡爾。 GE Vernova 正在蓄勢待發，預計2024 年利潤和自由現金流將實現大幅增長。我們預計收入將實現穩健的有機增長，在340 億美元至350 億美元之間，較2023 年實現中低個位數成長，調整後EBITDA 利潤率將達到2024 年的高端。中等個位數的 EBITDA 利潤率高於 23 年低個位數的 EBITDA 利潤率。支持這一前景的是持續的價格、生產力和重組努力帶來的好處。

A few highlights. We expect Gas Power to remain strong with continued services growth and low double-digit margins. Onshore will continue to improve significantly, achieving high single-digit margins on roughly flat revenue from better mix, price and cost out. Offshore will continue to execute our current backlog with slight year-over-year improvement.

幾個亮點。我們預計天然氣發電業務將保持強勁，服務業將持續成長，利潤率將維持在兩位數的低水準。陸上業務將繼續顯著改善，透過更好的組合、價格和成本支出，在收入基本持平的情況下實現高個位數的利潤率。離岸業務將繼續執行我們目前的積壓訂單，並比去年同期略有改善。

Finally, grid will expand to mid-single-digit margins, primarily from higher volume and price. Our guidance assumes roughly $200 million of stand-alone and $100 million of other ongoing carve-out costs.

最後，Grid 的利潤率將擴大至中個位數，主要來自於銷售和價格的提高。我們的指導假設大約 2 億美元的獨立成本和 1 億美元的其他持續剝離成本。

When converting from this year's expected operating profit margin for Power and renewables, combined to adjusted EBITDA margin for GE Vernova, including these costs plus D&A, the difference is roughly $0.5 billion or 1.5 points.

當從今年電力和再生能源的預期營業利潤率轉換為 GE Vernova 調整後的 EBITDA 利潤率（包括這些成本加上 D&A）時，差異約為 5 億美元或 1.5 個百分點。

On free cash flow. We expect $700 million to $1.1 billion from higher EBITDA and better working capital on a stand-alone basis, which includes absorbing our portion of the GE pension.

關於自由現金流。我們預計，更高的 EBITDA 和更好的營運資本將帶來 7 億至 11 億美元的收入，其中包括吸收我們在 GE 退休金中的部分。

Given the multi-decade secular tailwinds and stronger financial trajectory ahead, we are excited to launch GE Vernova and partner with our customers to lead the energy transition forward.

鑑於數十年的長期順風和未來更強勁的財務軌跡，我們很高興推出 GE Vernova 並與我們的客戶合作，引領能源轉型向前發展。

With that, back to Larry.

說到這裡，回到拉里。

At GE Aerospace, we're also excited about 2024. We expect another year of solid revenue growth, up at least low double digits, including mid- to high teens growth in commercial, which includes high teens growth in engines and mid-teens growth in services; mid- to high single-digit growth for Defense & Systems, including our Propulsion and Additive Technologies business.

在GE 航空航太公司，我們也對2024 年感到興奮。我們預計又一年收入將實現穩健增長，至少實現兩位數的低位增長，其中包括商業領域的中高青少年增長，其中包括發動機的高青少年增長和中青少年成長在服務業；國防與系統業務實現中高個位數成長，包括我們的推進和增材技術業務。

On our current reporting basis, the guidance implies $6.6 billion to $7.1 billion of operating profit, improving double digits at the midpoint of the range. On a stand-alone basis, including roughly $600 million of corporate and other stand-alone costs, this comes to approximately $6 billion to $6.5 billion of profit and implies flat margins year-over-year, given the growth in LEAP, initial 9X shipments for the 777X platform and other growth investments.

根據我們目前的報告，該指引意味著營業利潤將達到 66 億至 71 億美元，在該範圍的中點達到兩位數成長。考慮到LEAP 的成長、初始出貨量的9 倍，單獨計算，包括約6 億美元的企業成本和其他獨立成本，這將帶來約60 億至65 億美元的利潤，並且意味著同比利潤率持平。用於 777X 平台和其他成長投資。

For free cash flow, we expect to generate over $5 billion, which remains well above 100% conversion, including stand-alone impacts. Our teams are looking forward to sharing additional insights in detail with you at our March Investor Days.

對於自由現金流，我們預計將產生超過 50 億美元，仍遠高於 100% 的轉換率（包括獨立影響）。我們的團隊期待在三月投資者日與您詳細分享更多見解。

In closing, 2023 was an excellent year. GE Aerospace drove double-digit growth and GE Vernova delivered substantially better results. Both are on track for continued growth in 2024. While our sights are on the future, we're proud of what we've accomplished with over $100 billion of debt reduction behind us and $7 billion returned to shareholders in 2023, we remain fully focused day in and day out on using lean to improve how we serve our customers and deliver value for shareholders.

最後，2023 年是極好的一年。 GE 航空航太公司推動了兩位數的成長，GE Vernova 取得了明顯更好的業績。兩者都有望在2024 年持續成長。雖然我們著眼於未來，但我們對我們所取得的成就感到自豪，在2023 年我們減少了超過1000 億美元的債務，並向股東返還了70 億美元，但我們仍然全力專注日復一日地利用精實來改善我們服務客戶和為股東創造價值的方式。

Underpinning all of this is the GE team. My sincere thanks to all of you for the important work you did in 2023.

這一切的基礎是 GE 團隊。我衷心感謝大家在 2023 年所做的重要工作。

I've never been more confident in the path ahead. We've created industry leaders that will carry GE's commitment to innovation and continuous improvement while grounded in vital missions. At GE Aerospace, inventing the future of flight and at GE Vernova, electrifying and decarbonizing the world. We're ready to go.

我對未來的道路從未如此充滿信心。我們創造了產業領導者，他們將秉承 GE 對創新和持續改進的承諾，同時立足於重要使命。在 GE 航空航太公司，發明飛行的未來；在 GE Vernova，使世界電氣化和脫碳。我們準備出發了。

Steve? Over to you.

史蒂夫？交給你了。

Thanks, Larry. Before we open the line, Liz, I'd ask everyone in the queue to consider your fellow analysts and ask 1 question, so we can get to as many people as possible in the next 20 to 25 minutes. Please open the line.

謝謝，拉里。 Liz，在我們開始排隊之前，我會要求隊列中的每個人考慮您的分析師同事並提出 1 個問題，以便我們可以在接下來的 20 到 25 分鐘內聯繫到盡可能多的人。請打開線路。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Myles Walton with Wolfe Research.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Myles Walton。

I was hoping to dig in a little bit on the commercial engines' high-teens growth. And maybe if you could break down a little bit, does it still include about 2,000 LEAP deliveries? And also, is the spares ratio similar to '23? I know you mentioned '23 was similar to '22.

我希望深入了解商用引擎的高速成長。也許如果你能稍微細分一下，它還包括大約 2,000 次 LEAP 交付嗎？另外，備件比率是否與'23類似？我知道你提到 '23 與 '22 類似。

Myles, I think from a CES or commercial engines and services perspective, we're going to see engines lead the way. Engines will be up high teens plus. I think you're going to see services in the mid-teens area.

邁爾斯，我認為從 CES 或商業引擎和服務的角度來看，我們將看到引擎引領潮流。引擎將達到十幾歲以上。我認為您會在青少年區域看到服務。

Specific to your question, from a LEAP perspective, what we anticipate right now is a 20% to 25% increase in unit growth. I think we'll see installs get ahead of spares. So that spares ratio will begin to moderate more in line with the historic average of a typical life cycle. So that's really where we are with respect to the narrowbody specifics you have there.

具體到你的問題，從 LEAP 的角度來看，我們目前預計銷售量會成長 20% 到 25%。我認為我們會看到安裝量領先於備件量。因此，備件比率將開始更加符合典型生命週期的歷史平均值。因此，這就是我們就窄體飛機的具體情況而言的情況。

Our next question comes from the line of Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的喬·里奇。

Feels like the end of an era. Yes. As I just said feels like the end of an era. Way to go out on a good note. So my one question is for Scott. So Scott, I'm just trying to bridge the free cash flow comments, 2023 to 2024. Clearly, you guys have some numbers out on the slides but the 2023 numbers look like it's not apples-to-apples, right, like not burden for corporate. It looks like you're expecting a pretty meaningful pickup in 2024. So maybe just talk to us about the puts and takes and what's embedded in the low and the high end of the guide for '24.

感覺就像一個時代的結束。是的。正如我剛才所說，感覺就像一個時代的結束。出去的方式很好。所以我有一個問題是問斯科特的。所以斯科特，我只是想彌合 2023 年到 2024 年自由現金流的評論。顯然，你們在幻燈片上列出了一些數字，但 2023 年的數字看起來不是同類的，對吧，就像不是負擔對於企業。看起來您預計 2024 年會出現相當有意義的回升。因此，也許只需與我們談談看跌期權和看跌期權，以及 24 年指南的低端和高端中包含的內容。

Joe, at the start. I mean, we're proud of the $600 million of free cash flow that we generated with Power and Renewable segments in 2023.

喬，一開始。我的意思是，我們為 2023 年電力和再生能源領域產生的 6 億美元自由現金流感到自豪。

Now as we get to an apples-and-apples basis, we need to back out from that reportable free cash flow of $600 million, our stand-alone and carve-out costs of approximately $300 million. In addition to pension and some variables, we're working through with taxes that will all be clear in the Form 10 filing in the middle of February.

現在，當我們採用同類基準時，我們需要收回 6 億美元的可報告自由現金流，以及約 3 億美元的獨立成本和剝離成本。除了退休金和一些變數之外，我們正在解決稅務問題，這些問題將在 2 月中旬提交的 10 號表格中明確。

Jumping off of that starting point, we expect to see real EBITDA growth that will drive free cash flow with it from low single-digit EBITDA growth to the high end of the mid-single-digit EBITDA range that we're talking about, in addition to working capital continuing to be a source of cash that drives us up towards that $700 million to $1.1 billion of positive free cash flow at Vernova.

從這個起點出發，我們預計將看到真正的 EBITDA 成長，這將推動自由現金流從較低的個位數 EBITDA 成長到我們正在討論的中個位數 EBITDA 範圍的高端。除了營運資金之外，它仍然是我們的現金來源，推動Vernova 實現7 億至11 億美元的正自由現金流。

Now the real drivers of the variability in that range come down primarily to 2 things. One is Offshore Wind execution and how quickly we install the wind turbines in both the Atlantic and the North Sea, proud of the fact that we've got 14-megawatt wind turbines in both cases connected to the grid today. And really the EDF timing of the transaction close on Steam, as the 2 largest variables for us on that $700 million to $1.1 billion guide but with a lot of confidence that we go into '24 expecting to see substantial improvement off of 2023.

現在，該範圍內變化的真正驅動因素主要歸結為兩件事。一是離岸風電的執行，以及我們在大西洋和北海安裝風力渦輪機的速度有多快，令我們感到自豪的是，我們今天在這兩個地方都有 14 兆瓦的風力渦輪機併網。實際上，EDF 在 Steam 上完成交易的時間是我們在 7 億至 11 億美元指南中的兩個最大變量，但我們對進入 24 年充滿信心，預計 2023 年將出現實質改善。

Our next question will come from the line of Ken Herbert with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題將來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部的肯‧赫伯特 (Ken Herbert)。

Maybe, Larry, for the 2024 mid-teens commercial services outlook, can you provide any more granularity on the implied assumptions maybe for spare parts and price compared to other services? And then within that maybe some comments on how much improvement in the LEAP turnaround times are embedded in the guide?

拉里，對於 2024 年十幾歲左右的商業服務前景，您能否提供與其他服務相比的備件和價格的隱含假設的更詳細信息？然後，也許在指南中嵌入了一些關於 LEAP 週轉時間有多少改進的評論？

I think that what we're anticipating on the services side is, in effect, mid-single-digit departure growth really being the foundation. We will see, I think, internal shop visits grow more rapidly than we're likely to see spare parts. We're going to get pricing benefit. We're going to see work scope improvements. And that's really how you ladder up from that departures number to what we would expect to see in terms of mid-teens services growth. Rahul?

我認為，我們在服務方面的預期實際上是中個位數的出發成長確實是基礎。我認為，我們將會看到，內部商店訪問的增長速度比我們可能看到的備件增長得更快。我們將獲得定價優勢。我們將看到工作範圍的改進。這確實是從出發數量上升到我們預期的中十幾歲服務成長的方式。拉胡爾？

Ken, just to add a couple of dot points to that response. As Larry said, departures are up 6%. We are entering 2024 with some catch-up to do on our shop visits.

肯，只是為了在該響應中添加幾個點。正如 Larry 所說，出發人數增加了 6%。進入 2024 年，我們需要在商店走訪中進行一些補足。

Given the supply chain challenges in 2023, we could not get as many shop visits completed as we would have liked. So as we enter 2024, given the demand outlook, given the increase in traffic, we are expecting our shop visits to be up kind of low double digits to mid-teens. And adding to what Larry said on scope and pricing, that pushes our revenue from shop visits kind of towards the higher end of their teens.

鑑於 2023 年供應鏈面臨的挑戰，我們無法完成我們希望的那麼多商店訪問。因此，當我們進入 2024 年時，考慮到需求前景和客流量的增加，我們預計我們的商店訪問量將增長兩位數到十幾歲左右。再加上拉里所說的範圍和定價，這將我們從商店訪問中獲得的收入推向了青少年的高端。

And then spares growth kind of moderates and the spares growth will be below that of the shop visit growth. But you combine all that, you get to that mid-teens services growth that we just mentioned.

然後備件增長會放緩，備件增長將低於商店訪問量增長。但是，將所有這些結合起來，您就可以實現我們剛才提到的十幾歲左右的服務增長。

Our next question will come from the line of Julian Mitchell with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題將來自巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

Just a question maybe for Scott on the free cash flow again for Vernova. So I just wanted to try and understand, I think working capital is assumed as a source. So maybe help us understand kind of what the orders intake assumption is for Vernova this year. I think it was up 25%, the orders in 2023. So just trying to see how much sort of orders growth this year or what kind of working capital inflow from orders you're expecting?

斯科特可能會再次問 Vernova 的自由現金流問題。所以我只是想嘗試理解，我認為營運資金被假設為一個來源。因此，也許可以幫助我們了解 Vernova 今年的訂單量假設是多少。我認為 2023 年的訂單成長了 25%。所以想看看今年的訂單成長了多少，或者您期望訂單帶來什麼樣的營運資金流入？

And on that free cash flow point separately, there must be some assumption for sort of interest expense and so forth within that cash guide. So just any framing around that, please?

單獨就自由現金流點而言，現金指南中必須對利息支出等做出一些假設。那麼，請問有什麼框架嗎？

Julian, let me just kick it off and let me start with the second part first and then I'll hand it to Scott on the orders. As you think about the free cash flow guide for Vernova, we'll definitely provide more details as Form-10 comes out and then we have the Investor Days.

朱利安，讓我開始吧，讓我先從第二部分開始，然後我將按照命令將其交給斯科特。當您考慮 Vernova 的自由現金流指南時，我們肯定會在 Form-10 發布後提供更多詳細信息，然後我們將舉行投資者日。

But just keep in mind, as we've previously discussed, vast, vast majority of the GE debt will retain with GE Aerospace. So there's not a lot of interest impact on GE Vernova. So that's the way to think about the free cash flow for next year. More details to come on the capital structure. But Scott, do you want to take the orders part?

但請記住，正如我們之前討論的那樣，GE 的絕大多數債務將由 GE 航空航天公司保留。因此，GE Vernova 的利益影響不大。這就是考慮明年自由現金流的方法。有關資本結構的更多細節即將公佈。但是史考特，你想接受命令嗎？

You bet, Rahul. And Julian, I think to your point, to begin with, we had a big SunZia order with onshore wind in the fourth quarter. Across grid, there were a number of large HVDC orders with TenneT, as an example and you can expect in every year, in any quarter specifically that we're going to see those types of transactions. So those, we don't expect to see a repeat in '24 versus '23.

你敢打賭，拉胡爾。朱利安，我認為就你的觀點而言，首先，我們在第四季度收到了一筆陸上風電的 SunZia 大訂單。以 TenneT 為例，在整個電網中，有許多大型 HVDC 訂單，您可以預期每年、任何季度我們都會看到這些類型的交易。因此，我們預計 24 年與 23 年不會重演。

But with Onshore Wind, as an example, our largest renewables business, we see our customers actively investing and replenishing their project book right now. I mean they really utilized all the projects they had prior to having clarity on the PTC. And we do think the orders profile in '24, much like the revenue and shipments profile will be more back-end loaded than first half loaded an Onshore Wind. But with very active individual projects, orders are going to be more flattish than up in onshore.

但以陸上風電為例，我們最大的再生能源業務，我們看到我們的客戶現在正在積極投資和補充他們的專案。我的意思是，他們確實利用了在明確 PTC 之前擁有的所有項目。我們確實認為 24 年的訂單概況，就像收入和出貨量概況一樣，後端加載將多於上半年加載的陸上風電。但由於個別項目非常活躍，訂單將比陸上訂單更加平淡。

On grid, the one point I'd make is, although we aren't going to expect as much in large HVDC orders to the extent we had with TenneT in 2023, the reality is, even if you back out the HVDC orders in grid, our second largest renewables business, our orders in grid grew by over 20% in 2023. Power transformers as an example, a business we don't talk about as much, grew orders by 40%. And we expect to continue to see that strength.

在電網方面，我要指出的一點是，儘管我們對大型 HVDC 訂單的期望不會達到 2023 年 TenneT 的水平，但現實是，即使您取消了電網中的 HVDC 訂單作為我們第二大可再生能源業務，我們的電網訂單在2023 年成長了20% 以上。以電力變壓器為例，我們不太談論這個業務，訂單成長了40%。我們期望繼續看到這種力量。

So there may be less headline orders of the magnitude of a SunZia or the TenneT HVDC projects but there's a lot of healthy demand across renewables that we expect to continue into 2024 that contributes towards our free cash flow generation, continue to be greater than 100% and that significant free cash flow growth that we just talked about.

因此，SunZia 或TenneT HVDC 項目規模的主要訂單可能會減少，但可再生能源的健康需求很大，我們預計這種需求將持續到2024 年，這有助於我們的自由現金流生成，繼續超過100 %以及我們剛才談到的自由現金流的顯著成長。

Our next question will come from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題將來自 Sheila Kahyaoglu 和 Jefferies 的電話。

Larry, this one's for you. Maybe if you could just offer your perspective on the quality lapses we've seen across the industry. How does it change your approach in regards to ensuring the integrity of your own supply chains as the industry grapples with the lead challenges, obviously but you also mentioned initial GE9X production in 2024. How does that flow into your assumptions on free cash flow for things like inventory build?

拉里，這個是給你的。也許您可以就我們在整個行業中看到的品質失誤提供您的看法。隨著行業努力應對主要挑戰，它如何改變您在確保自己供應鏈完整性方面的方法，顯然，但您也提到了 2024 年的初始 GE9X 生產。這如何影響您對事物自由現金流的假設例如庫存建設？

Sheila, there's a lot there. I think from a -- let's take safety first. I'm strongly of the view that the industry, not to speak for the industry but having been close to this business for almost 2 years, everybody understands the solemn responsibility we have the world over.

希拉，那裡有很多東西。我認為，讓我們先考慮安全。我強烈認為，這個行業，不是代表這個行業，而是已經接近這個行業近兩年了，每個人都明白我們在全世界所肩負的莊嚴責任。

I think from a GE Aerospace perspective, as you and I have talked, the operating framework, the lean transformation that's been underway here is very much rooted in an SQDC approach, safety, first and foremost, before quality, before delivery, before cost. And we not only talk that way, we work hard to make sure we operate that way day in and day out.

我認為，從GE 航空航太公司的角度來看，正如你和我所談論的那樣，這裡正在進行的營運框架和精益轉型在很大程度上植根於SQDC 方法，安全首先是在品質之前，在交付之前，在成本之前。我們不僅這樣說話，我們還努力確保我們日復一日地以這種方式運作。

Fortunately, at GE Aerospace, we have a long history of being hyper focused on safety. You go back, for example, to I think 2013, our safety management system was really the first of its kind. We were the first OEM to implement such a scheme well before the FAA required the industry to do so. And we have been building on that. But that approach never assumes perfection, right? So we layer in all sorts of checks and audits, process capabilities to make sure that we're doing all that we possibly can to deliver safety, to deliver quality over time. And that applies in the commercial realm, it applies on the defense side, legacy platforms, new platforms like LEAP and 9X.

幸運的是，在 GE 航空航太公司，我們長期以來一直高度關注安全。例如，我認為 2013 年，我們的安全管理系統確實是同類中的第一個。我們是第一家在美國聯邦航空管理局 (FAA) 要求業界這樣做之前實施此類計劃的原始設備製造商 (OEM)。我們一直在此基礎上繼續努力。但這種方法永遠不會假設完美，對吧？因此，我們分層進行各種檢查和審核以及流程能力，以確保我們盡一切努力提供安全性，並隨著時間的推移提供品質。這適用於商業領域，也適用於防禦方、傳統平台、LEAP 和 9X 等新平台。

And I'd also say that when we talk about our leadership behaviors of humility and transparency and focus, that really helps undergird all of that work because if we have an opportunity to improve, if we miss something, we want folks to come forward, share that with us so we can get after it, get to root cause and lay in corrective action. So that's really the general approach.

我還想說，當我們談論我們的謙遜、透明和專注的領導行為時，這確實有助於鞏固所有這些工作，因為如果我們有機會改進，如果我們錯過了什麼，我們希望人們挺身而出，與我們分享這一點，以便我們能夠追蹤問題、找出根本原因並採取糾正措施。這確實是一般方法。

From a 9X perspective, we do know that, that will be a pressure on us in 2024. We're assuming EIS May of '25, will begin to ship engines in the back half of '24. It's really the beginning of the life cycle for that platform. We're thrilled to be underwing on the 777X. It's an exciting platform but it will be a financial headwind for us for the foreseeable future as we ramp not only the volumes but obviously improve the overall cost structure of that business with an eye toward building the installed base and the service annuities that will come over time.

從 9X 的角度來看，我們確實知道，這將在 2024 年對我們構成壓力。我們假設 25 年 5 月的 EIS 將在 24 年下半年開始出貨引擎。這實際上是該平台生命週期的開始。我們很高興能成為 777X 的一員。這是一個令人興奮的平台，但在可預見的未來，這對我們來說將是一個財務逆風，因為我們不僅增加了銷量，而且明顯改善了該業務的整體成本結構，著眼於建立安裝基礎和即將到來的服務年金時間。

Sheila, just to add to that. On the free cash flow part of your question, we've -- 9X has been a headwind on free cash flow even in 2023, as we start bringing in inventory to start shipping this year, as Larry said, towards the back half of this year. So it will continue to impact our free cash flow negatively to some extent. But it's not a material driver overall, as you've seen greater than $5 billion of free cash flow for 2024, including absorption of the corporate pension, the interest expense, so -- that you saw. So still feel pretty good about the free cash flow for 2024, and the 9X is not a material driver of the free cash flow for the year.

希拉，補充一下。關於你問題的自由現金流部分，我們 - 即使在 2023 年，9X 也一直是自由現金流的阻力，正如拉里所說，今年下半年我們開始引入庫存以開始發貨年。因此，它將繼續在某種程度上對我們的自由現金流產生負面影響。但總體而言，這並不是一個實質的驅動因素，因為你已經看到2024 年的自由現金流將超過50 億美元，包括企業退休金的吸收、利息支出等——正如你所看到的。所以對2024年的自由現金流還是感覺不錯，而且9X並不是當年自由現金流的實質驅動因素。

Our next question will come from the line of Andrew Obin with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題將來自美國銀行的安德魯·奧賓 (Andrew Obin)。

Just one last time for me for GE. But yes, a question for Rahul. Maybe just if -- you gave us an overview for the company into the first quarter. But maybe just detail by business for GE into the first quarter, a little bit more color.

這只是我在通用電氣的最後一次。但是，是的，有個問題要問拉胡爾。也許只是如果——你向我們介紹了公司第一季的概況。但也許只是通用電氣第一季的業務細節，多一點色彩。

Sure, Andrew. So if you look at the first quarter guide, Aerospace is going to start the year strong. Revenue up mid-teens with the commercial growth rates in the first quarter, kind of in line with what we are projecting for full year.

當然，安德魯。因此，如果你看一下第一季的指南，航空航太將在今年開局強勁。隨著第一季的商業成長率，營收成長了十幾歲左右，這與我們對全年的預測一致。

And the margins on a business as usual kind of pre all the stand-alone expenses, we do expect margins to be flat to slightly up for the first quarter on a year-over-year basis for Aerospace.

與往常一樣，在所有獨立費用之前的業務利潤率，我們確實預計航空航太第一季的利潤率將與去年同期持平或略有上升。

For renewables, as Scott said, there will be profit improvement during the year but that improvement will be more back-end loaded. As we start converting the higher-margin onshore wind orders that Scott referenced in his prepared remarks, we'll start shipping those orders that we got in '23 into the second half of 2024. So there's a little bit of lag between order to revenue conversion.

正如斯科特所說，對於再生能源來說，今年的利潤將會有所改善，但這種改善將更多地落在後端。當我們開始轉換斯科特在準備好的演講中提到的利潤率較高的陸上風電訂單時，我們將開始將23 年獲得的這些訂單運送到2024 年下半年。因此，訂單與收入之間存在一點滯後轉換。

And so the renewables improvement will be more back-end loaded. The first quarter for renewables will look a lot like the fourth quarter for renewables. So think about roughly in the same zone.

因此，再生能源的改進將更多地落在後端。再生能源的第一季看起來很像再生能源的第四季。因此，請考慮大致在同一區域。

And for, typical seasonality with low single-digit growth, some margin expansion year-over-year in the first quarter.

由於典型的季節性因素，低個位數成長，第一季的利潤率年增。

But just one other point I want to make on the first quarter is that given that both Vernova and Aerospace team are fully staffed up to become stand-alone public companies and we are operating with a very, very small corporate staff. And the historic corporate expense will now be fully absorbed in the 2 businesses. And the corporate expense in first quarter will be effectively zero.

但我想在第一季提出的另一點是，鑑於 Vernova 和 Aerospace 團隊都配備了充足的人員，成為獨立的上市公司，而我們的公司員工規模非常非常小。歷史性的公司開支現在將完全由這兩項業務吸收。第一季的公司支出實際上為零。

So majority of that expense is going to Aerospace and the balance to Vernova. But the way to think about first quarter margins for both companies is just as we think through after absorption of incremental cost and just given in line with the reported margin guidance that we provided for full year. So that's the way to think about the first quarter margins.

因此，大部分費用將用於航空航天，其餘費用將用於 Vernova。但考慮兩家公司第一季利潤率的方式與我們在吸收增量成本後的思考方式相同，並且只是根據我們提供的全年報告利潤率指導給出的。這就是思考第一季利潤率的方式。

Our next question will come from the line of Seth Seifman with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題將來自摩根大通的 Seth Seifman。

I don't want to kind of -- you've just given us the 2024 guidance, so I apologize for jumping ahead here. But when we think about margin cadence in Aerospace, apples-to-apples kind of flattish as we go from '23 to '24. When you think about going to kind of the 20%-ish that you talked about for '25, how do we think about the key drivers as we bridge that?

我不想——你們剛剛給了我們 2024 年的指導，所以我很抱歉在這裡提前。但當我們考慮到航空航太領域的利潤率節奏時，從 23 年到 24 年，同類產品之間的差距有點平淡。當你考慮到你在 25 年談到的 20% 左右時，我們在彌合這個問題時如何考慮關鍵驅動因素？

Yes. Seth, so listen, let's start with a really strong '23, right? $1.3 billion of profit growth, 90 basis points of margin expansion and better than what we said back in March, right, when we were expecting $5.5 billion of profit, flat margins year-over-year. So 2023 shaped up a lot better than what we initially expected back in March.

是的。 Seth，聽著，讓我們從一個非常強大的 23 開始，對吧？利潤成長 13 億美元，利潤率擴張 90 個基點，比我們 3 月所說的要好，當時我們預計利潤 55 億美元，利潤率同比持平。因此，2023 年的情況比我們 3 月最初的預期要好得多。

Now as you look forward to '24, I know you kind of skipped over that here but double-digit profit growth in 2024, with the OE ramp, 9X introduction pressuring the margin rate but it is exactly the steps that we had thought in our minds on how 2024 would look when we were sitting back in March, right? And we had said, hey, '24 will be a step along the way to '25.

現在，當您展望24 世紀時，我知道您有點忽略了這一點，但2024 年將實現兩位數的利潤增長，隨著OE 的增加、9X 的引入對利潤率施加壓力，但這正是我們在我們的報告中所考慮的步驟。當我們坐在 3 月時，我們會想到 2024 年會是什麼樣子，對嗎？我們說過，嘿，24 歲將是邁向 25 歲的一步。

Now as we get to '25, the biggest driver to profit growth between '24 to '25 will be the benefit from top line improvement and that is in line with what we've previously said, pricing that offsets inflation and productivity. But mix will continue to be an issue. LEAP OE volume ramps, LEAP services ramps. And even though LEAP services becomes profitable in '24, it's still a margin headwind and then 9X volume ramps in '25 as well.

現在，當我們進入 25 世紀時，24 世紀到 25 世紀之間利潤成長的最大推動力將是營收改善的好處，這與我們之前所說的一致，即抵消通貨膨脹和生產力的定價。但混合仍將是一個問題。 LEAP OE 銷售量增加，LEAP 服務增加。儘管 LEAP 服務在 24 年開始盈利，但它仍然是利潤率的逆風，並且在 25 年銷量也增長了 9 倍。

So if you think about '25, recall, we had said $7.5 billion, $7.6 billion to $8 billion of profit on the current GE reporting, which translates to roughly about 20% margins. And layering in about $0.5 billion of stand-alone public company expenses, EH&S cost, all the other things, we are thinking $7.1 billion to $7.6 billion of profit for 2025, which is in line with what we said back in March, just adjusted for the incremental expenses. And we'll come back to that and talk more in March.

因此，如果你回想一下 25 年，我們在目前的 GE 報告中說過 75 億美元、76 億美元到 80 億美元的利潤，相當於大約 20% 的利潤率。加上約 5 億美元的獨立上市公司費用、EH&S 成本以及所有其他費用，我們預計 2025 年的利潤將達到 71 億至 76 億美元，這與我們 3 月份所說的一致，只是根據增量費用。我們將在三月回到這個主題並進行更多討論。

Our next question will come from the line of Andrew Kaplowitz with Citigroup.

我們的下一個問題將來自花旗集團的安德魯·卡普洛維茨（Andrew Kaplowitz）。

Scott, maybe in terms of your 2024 margin expectations for Vernova, could you give us a little more color on the components? I think you mentioned onshore can reach high single-digit margins with the second half ramp up, which would I think be meaningfully better performance than your initial expectations you set for the business in '24 last year. So does that assume you get through most of your product reliability issues? And as price versus cost just been a bigger driver than you would have thought?

Scott，也許就您對 Vernova 2024 年利潤率的預期而言，您能給我們更多有關組件的資訊嗎？我認為您提到，隨著下半年的成長，陸上業務可以達到高個位數的利潤率，我認為這比您去年為該業務設定的最初預期要好得多。那麼這是假設您解決了大部分產品可靠性問題嗎？價格與成本的關係比您想像的更大？

Andy, you bet. I mean, if we go back to our original guide in '24, going back to March, I mean, we're largely in line with the expectations there. But if we take a step back, Gas Power is stronger than our expectations in March. Onshore Wind and Grid are both stronger. And to your point, we talked today about Onshore Wind being high single-digit margins in '24 and Grid being mid-single-digit margins.

安迪，你敢打賭。我的意思是，如果我們回到 24 年最初的指南，回到 3 月份，我的意思是，我們基本上符合那裡的預期。但如果我們退後一步，Gas Power 3 月的表現強於我們的預期。陸域風電和電網都更強。就您的觀點而言，我們今天談到了陸上風電在 24 年的利潤率為高個位數，而電網利潤率為中等個位數。

Now gas has already gotten to low double-digit margins and will continue to accrete but offshore is tougher than where we were in March. And that's challenging a little bit of that strength in our 3 largest businesses with gas, grid and onshore representing about 80% of our revenue today. But also taking into account that tough offshore backlog, we've got 2 more years to execute through that.

現在天然氣的利潤率已經達到了兩位數的低位，並將繼續成長，但海上業務比三月的情況更加困難。這對我們三大業務的實力構成了一定的挑戰，天然氣、電網和陸上業務約占我們今天收入的 80%。但也要考慮到海外積壓的情況，我們還有兩年的時間來完成這個任務。

So when you think about our 3 largest businesses continuing to be stronger than where we were, while we really reduce our offshore backlog from $6 billion to approximately $4 billion and approximately 2 years to go, we see a clear pathway in '24 to accrete margin but also then to continue to accrete margin beyond as we liquidate the rest of the tough economics with offshore in '25 and then find the oxygen to really share with you some of our smaller businesses we don't talk about as much.

因此，當你想到我們的三大業務繼續比以前更強大時，雖然我們確實將離岸積壓訂單從60 億美元減少到大約40 億美元，並且大約還需要2 年時間，但我們看到了24 年增加利潤率的明確途徑但隨著我們在 25 年通過離岸清算剩餘的艱難經濟，然後繼續增加利潤，然後找到氧氣與您真正分享我們不常談論的一些小型業務。

But you heard Rahul mention earlier the fact that our digital business returned to profitability and we're really excited about some of those areas like grid software that we'll share more with you when we get to March 6. So those really are the key dynamics of '23 to '24 and looking a little bit further out than even that.

但你之前聽到Rahul 提到我們的數位業務恢復盈利這一事實，我們對其中一些領域（例如網格軟體）感到非常興奮，我們將在3 月6 日與您分享更多內容。所以這些確實是關鍵'23 到 '24 的動態，甚至比這更遠。

Liz, we have time for one last question.

麗茲，我們還有時間回答最後一個問題。

This question will come from the line of Scott Deuschle with Deutsche Bank.

這個問題將來自德意志銀行的 Scott Deuschle。

Rahul, you touched on a bit in your answer to Seth's question but can you give a bit more detail on the flat margins implied for GE Aerospace in '24?

Rahul，您在回答 Seth 問題時提到了一些內容，但是您能否提供更多有關 GE 航空航太公司 24 年利潤率持平的詳細資訊？

And then for Larry, I was hoping you can give an update on your capital allocation priorities for '24, including how share repurchases fit in relative to debt paydown?

然後，拉里，我希望你能提供 24 年資本配置優先事項的最新信息，包括股票回購與債務償還的關係如何？

Yes. Sure, Scott. So as we look forward to 2024, I think it's going to be another strong year, right? We've guided to 6.5 -- $6.6 billion to $7.1 billion of profit on a current basis and then $6 billion to $6.5 billion on a stand-alone basis. This is after including EH&S, other public company expenses.

是的。當然，斯科特。因此，當我們展望 2024 年時，我認為這將是另一個強勁的一年，對嗎？我們的目標是當前利潤為 6.5——66 億至 71 億美元，然後為獨立利潤 60 億至 65 億美元。這是在包括 EH&S、其他上市公司費用之後的結果。

Including, about $100 million to support the wind down of GE corporate office, which will now be with us kind of through second quarter. So this implies about a $750 million of profit growth or low double digit at the midpoint of that growth.

其中包括約 1 億美元用於支持 GE 公司辦公室的關閉，該辦公室現在將在第二季與我們在一起。因此，這意味著大約 7.5 億美元的利潤成長或成長中點的低兩位數。

Margins, we do expect that those margins to be flat, about 2 points of margin pressure that we're expecting. More than 0.5 point of that is coming from LEAP OE ramp, introduction of 9X engines and the strong LEAP services growth. And as I said to Seth earlier, even though LEAP services is turning profitable, just as we would have expected, it is still negatively impacting the margins.

利潤率方面，我們確實預期這些利潤率將持平，約為我們預期的 2 個百分點的利潤率壓力。其中超過 0.5 個百分點來自 LEAP OE 產能提升、9X 引擎的推出以及 LEAP 服務的強勁成長。正如我之前對 Seth 所說的那樣，儘管 LEAP 服務正在扭虧為盈，正如我們所預期的那樣，但它仍然對利潤率產生負面影響。

And the rest of that 2-point headwind is coming from incremental R&D to support -- improve -- further improvement in LEAP durability, introduction of 9X and then develop the next generation of products for the future of flight.

剩下的 2 點逆風來自於漸進式研發，以支援、改進、進一步提高 LEAP 耐用性、推出 9X，然後為未來的飛行開發下一代產品。

This margin pressure is completely offset with benefit from volume, productivity, the strong services growth that we are expecting. So overall, again, it's a step that it is in line with our expectations that we had laid out for the medium-term outlook in March of '23. Larry?

這種利潤壓力完全被我們預期的銷售、生產力和服務強勁成長所帶來的好處所抵銷。因此，總的來說，這再次符合我們在 2023 年 3 月為中期前景制定的預期。拉里？

Scott, I don't know if you asked that relative to my GE role or my Aerospace role, I suspect the latter. But just with the GE hat on for a moment, really no change at this point. We really want to make sure we see through the spin, as I think both Rahul and Scott talked at the outset, feeling very good about Vernova's prospects here to be investment grade, confident in that outlook and we want to see that through, set out both businesses.

斯科特，我不知道你問這個問題是與我在通用電氣的職位還是與我的航空航天職位有關，我懷疑是後者。但僅僅戴上通用電氣的帽子一會兒，在這一點上確實沒有任何變化。我們真的想確保我們看透這一旋轉，正如我認為拉胡爾和斯科特一開始就談到的那樣，對Vernova 在這裡達到投資級的前景感到非常好，對這一前景充滿信心，我們希望看透這一點，出發兩項業務。

We will, in early March in New York, share more at each of the Investor Days as to how we're thinking about the -- not only the capital structures but the capital allocation strategies for both businesses.

我們將在三月初在紐約舉行的每次投資者日分享更多關於我們如何思考的內容，不僅是資本結構，還有兩家公司的資本配置策略。

I think in Aerospace, so you should assume that we're going to have a compelling dividend, that buybacks are going to be an important part of that overall effort beyond just covering dilution and we'll certainly look to do meaningful value-accretive M&A. The mix, the timing, those details to come. I really want the GE Aerospace Board to have more time with those important questions.

我認為在航空航太領域，所以你應該假設我們將獲得引人注目的股息，回購將成為整體努力的重要組成部分，而不僅僅是稀釋，我們肯定會尋求進行有意義的增值併購。混合、時間安排以及即將到來的細節。我真的希望通用電氣航空航天董事會有更多時間來解決這些重要問題。

But we're looking forward to moving beyond deleveraging and playing more offense at Aerospace. And I think while Scott's got a different hand to play, they're going to look to continue to certainly invest inorganically in the opportunities that they have around the energy transition.

但我們期待超越去槓桿化，在航空航太領域發揮更多進攻作用。我認為，雖然斯科特有不同的做法，但他們將繼續對圍繞能源轉型所擁有的機會進行無機投資。

Liz, before we wrap, I want to remind folks that GE Aerospace will report GE's first quarter results in late April, with GE Vernova holding a separate call. As a result, like we did with GE HealthCare, we'll focus our comments in late April on Aerospace leaving GE Vernova commentary to Scott and his team.

麗茲，在結束之前，我想提醒大家，GE 航空航天公司將在 4 月下旬報告 GE 第一季業績，GE Vernova 將召開單獨的電話會議。因此，就像我們對 GE HealthCare 所做的那樣，我們將在 4 月下旬將評論重點放在航空航天上，而將 GE Vernova 的評論留給 Scott 和他的團隊。

Larry, any final comments?

拉里，最後有什麼意見嗎？

Steve, thanks. Just to close the call, again, the teams delivered in 2023, both Aerospace and Vernova. We're really looking forward to what's ahead for both companies as independent entities. Before that day in early April, we hope to see many of you at the Investor Days in March. We appreciate your time today, your investment and support of GE.

史蒂夫，謝謝。最後，再次強調，Aerospace 和 Vernova 團隊均於 2023 年交付。我們非常期待兩家公司作為獨立實體的未來。在四月初的那一天之前，我們希望在三月的投資者日見到你們中的許多人。我們感謝您今天抽出時間，感謝您對 GE 的投資和支持。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝你們，女士們、先生們。今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。