奇異 (GE) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the GE Aerospace second quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) My name is Liz and I will be your conference coordinator today. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today's conference, Blair Shore from the GE Aerospace Investor Relations team. Please proceed.

女士們、先生們，大家好，歡迎參加 GE 航空 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）我的名字是 Liz，今天我將擔任您的會議協調員。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。現在，我想將節目單交給今天會議的主持人、通用電氣航空投資者關係團隊的布萊爾·肖爾 (Blair Shore)。請繼續。

Thanks, Liz. Welcome to GE Aerospace's second quarter 2024 earnings call. I'm joined by Chairman and CEO, Larry Culp; and CFO, Rahul Ghai. Many of the statements we're making are forward-looking and based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. As described in our SEC filings, and website, those elements may change as the world changes. Now over to Larry.

謝謝，莉茲。歡迎參加 GE 航空 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。與我一起出席的還有董事長兼首席執行官拉里·庫爾普 (Larry Culp)；和首席財務官 Rahul Ghai。我們所做的許多聲明都是前瞻性的，基於我們對當今世界和我們業務的最佳看法。正如我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件和網站所述，這些元素可能會隨著世界的變化而變化。現在交給拉里。

Blaire, thanks. And hello, everyone, from London, near the Farnborough International Airshow for GE Aerospace's first earnings call as an independent company. GE Aerospace is an exceptional franchise with the industry's largest and growing commercial propulsion fleet and as the rotorcraft and combat engine provider of choice.

布萊爾，謝謝。大家好，我們在倫敦範堡羅國際航空展附近參加 GE 航空航太公司作為獨立公司首次召開的收益電話會議。GE 航太公司是一家卓越的特許經營企業，擁有業內最大且不斷增長的商用推進機組，也是首選的旋翼機和戰鬥機發動機供應商。

Our installed base of 70,000 commercial and defense engines supports our aftermarket services business, representing about 70% of our revenues that's recurring, resilient, and keeps us close to our customers. Our purpose has never been clearer, to invent the future of flight, lift people up, and bring them home safely. Those last four words, bring them home safely is a serious responsibility.

我們已安裝的 70,000 台商用和國防發動機為我們的售後服務業務提供了支持，這占我們收入的 70% 左右，這些收入具有經常性、彈性，並能讓我們與客戶保持密切聯繫。我們的目標從未如此明確：創造飛行的未來，讓人們飛上天空，並且安全回家。最後四個字，把他們安全帶回家是一項重大的責任。

At any point there are 900,000 people in the sky with our technology underwing, which is why safety and quality are at the center of everything that we do. Our teams around the world understand it is our top priority and paramount in FLIGHT DECK, our proprietary lean operating model.

無論何時，天空中都有 90 萬人使用我們的技術，這就是為什麼安全和品質是我們所做一切的核心。我們遍佈全球的團隊都明白這是我們的首要任務，也是我們專有的精實營運模式 FLIGHT DECK 的重中之重。

Here at Farnborough, the conversations we're having are energizing and focused on both the opportunities and the challenges the industry is facing as we work together to meet historic demand and build more sustainable solutions.

在範堡羅，我們的對話充滿活力，重點關注產業面臨的機會和挑戰，我們共同努力滿足歷史需求並建立更永續的解決方案。

We've had a productive few days, including wide body commitments from Turkish Airlines and National Airlines for GE90 engines and Japan Airlines for GEnx engines. We're also honored to have British Airways, a new GEnx customer, committing to six new Boeing-787s powered by our engines.

這幾天我們收穫豐富，包括土耳其航空和國家航空承諾使用 GE90 發動機的寬體客機以及日本航空承諾使用 GEnx 發動機的寬體客機。我們也很榮幸 GEnx 的新客戶英國航空公司承諾訂購六架採用我們發動機的波音 787 新飛機。

The GEnx engine offers a 15% lower fuel burn compared to the CF6 and best in class time on-wing resulting in a 70% life of program win rate on the 87 platform. In narrow-bodies, we're pleased the LEAP powered Airbus A321XLR was certified by the European Union Aviation Safety Agency or EASA just last week.

GEnx 引擎與 CF6 相比，燃油消耗降低了 15%，且具有同類最佳的在翼時間，從而使 87 平台的專案成功率達到 70%。在窄體飛機中，我們很高興搭載 LEAP 動力的空中巴士 A321XLR 上週獲得了歐洲航空安全局 (EASA) 的認證。

The A321XLR marks the fifth member of the A320 NEO family aircraft powered by LEAP engines with expected entry into service later this year. LEAP, the narrow-body engine of choice offers 15% better fuel efficiency than the CFM56 and will deliver mature levels of time on wing later this year.

A321XLR 是搭載 LEAP 引擎的 A320 NEO 系列飛機的第五名成員，預計將於今年稍後投入使用。LEAP 是首選的窄體發動機，其燃油效率比 CFM56 高 15%，並將在今年稍後達到成熟的運行時間水平。

In regionals, EMBRAER and GE Aerospace extended our agreement for new CF34 engine deliveries through the end of this decade. This agreement strengthens our partnership as the sole source engine on the E175 and supports the continued growth of regional jets.

在區域市場，巴西航空工業公司和通用電氣航空航太公司將我們的新型 CF34 引擎交付協議延長至本世紀末。該協議加強了我們作為 E175 唯一引擎來源的合作夥伴關係，並支持了支線噴射機的持續成長。

Keeping an eye towards the future, this week at the show, we've shared a number of updates about the CFM RISE program. RISE is the suite of pioneering technologies, including open fan, compact core, hybrid electric systems, and alternative fuels. We continue to mature these technologies moving from component level evaluations to more module level tests.

著眼於未來，本週在展會上我們分享了有關 CFM RISE 計劃的一系列更新資訊。RISE 是一套先進的技術，包括開放式風扇、緊湊型核心、混合電力系統和替代燃料。我們不斷完善這些技術，從組件級評估轉向更多模組級測試。

For example, with our partner Safran, we've demonstrated the aerodynamic and acoustic performance of the open fan design with more than 200 hours of wind tunnel tests. Additionally, we've announced a new agreement with the US Department of Energy to expand supercomputing capabilities, which will further advance open fan design. The open fan is the most promising engine technology to help the industry reduce emissions, designed to meet or exceed customer expectations for durability and deliver a step change in fuel efficiency.

例如，我們與合作夥伴賽峰集團一起，透過超過 200 小時的風洞測試展示了開放式風扇設計的空氣動力學和聲學性能。此外，我們宣布與美國能源部達成新協議，以擴展超級運算能力，這將進一步推進開放式風扇設計。開放式風扇是幫助業界減少排放最有前景的引擎技術，旨在滿足或超越客戶對耐用性的期望，並實現燃油效率的重大改變。

Turning to some of the key takeaways on our second quarter performance. Our team delivered double-digit growth across orders, operating profit, and free cash flow, while revenue was impacted by lower output. With FLIGHT DECK, we're well-positioned to accelerate actions to deliver on our priorities for today, tomorrow, and in the future.

談談我們第二季業績的一些關鍵要點。我們的團隊在訂單、營業利潤和自由現金流方面實現了兩位數的成長，但收入受到產量下降的影響。透過 FLIGHT DECK，我們可以加快行動，實現當前、明天和未來的優先事項。

In Commercial Engines & Services or CES, air traffic trends remain positive, supporting our services growth and overall profit, which was up more than 20%. Profit growth was driven by 14% internal shop visits growth and improved pricing.

在商用引擎和服務（CES）方面，空中交通趨勢仍然積極，支持了我們的服務成長和整體利潤，增加超過20％。利潤成長主要得益於內部店鋪訪客量成長 14% 和定價改善。

In Defense & Propulsion Technologies or DPT, we delivered very strong profit growth, up more than 70% year over year. Services growth in defense and systems and profit improvement in propulsion and additive technologies drove this increase.

在國防與推進技術（DPT）領域，我們實現了非常強勁的利潤成長，比去年同期成長超過 70％。國防和系統領域的服務成長以及推進和增材技術的利潤提高推動了這一增長。

Overall, a very solid quarter and first half, and my thanks go out to the entire global GE Aerospace team. Day in day out, we're focused on delivering for both our airline and airframer customers who simply want and need more of our products and services.

整體而言，本季和上半年業績非常穩健，我向整個全球 GE 航空航太團隊表示感謝。日復一日，我們專注於為航空公司和飛機製造商客戶提供更多我們產品和服務。

While we've made progress and services this quarter, our new engine output was disappointing, down 20% sequentially. It's a clear challenge that we're facing head-on, accelerating the use of FLIGHT DECK in partnership with our suppliers as we work to solve the ongoing supply chain constraints.

雖然本季我們取得了進展和服務，但我們的新引擎產量令人失望，環比下降 20％。這是我們面臨的一個明顯挑戰，我們需要與供應商合作加速使用 FLIGHT DECK，努力解決持續存在的供應鏈限制問題。

Last quarter, we shared that the common denominator impacting growth across both services and new engines is constrained material supply, with 80% of material input shortages tied to 9 suppliers across 15 supplier sites. This remains our focus today, we've deployed more than 550 of our engineering and supply chain resources into the supply base to use FLIGHT DECK to work hand-in-hand with our suppliers to identify and resolve constraints.

上個季度，我們分享了影響服務和新引擎成長的共同點，即材料供應受限，80% 的材料投入短缺與 15 個供應商站點的 9 家供應商有關。這仍然是我們今天的重點，我們已經將 550 多個工程和供應鏈資源部署到供應基地，利用 FLIGHT DECK 與我們的供應商攜手合作，識別和解決限制因素。

We made significant improvements in many areas and more than two-thirds of these site's material flow more than doubled sequentially and is currently no longer constraining deliveries. We're grateful for their collaboration, but there's still more to do in the second half.

我們在許多領域都取得了重大進步，其中超過三分之二的站點的物料流量比上一季增加了一倍多，目前不再限制交付。我們感謝他們的合作，但下半年還有很多工作要做。

And we've sharpened our focus on a subset of the remaining priority sites that are still constraining our output. We're making some progress, but not enough to meet demand. I've personally visited several of these sites, and I'm confident we can partner with our suppliers to drive faster progress.

我們已將注意力集中到仍限制我們產出的剩餘優先站點的子集上。我們取得了一些進展，但不足以滿足需求。我親自訪問過其中幾個站點，我相信我們可以與我們的供應商合作，以推動更快的進步。

For example, earlier this month, we partnered with one of the priorities suppliers in a joint Kaizen focused at on addressing a key constraint. Our supply chain and engineering teams jointly leveraged FLIGHT DECK to identify action plans to improve throughput significantly aligned with our needs for second-half deliveries.

例如，本月初，我們與一家重點供應商合作，共同進行改善活動，並專注於解決一個關鍵限制因素。我們的供應鏈和工程團隊共同利用 FLIGHT DECK 確定了行動計劃，以提高吞吐量，從而大大滿足我們下半年交付的需求。

These actions resulted in a double-digit material input growth here so far in July versus the second quarter average, so a promising start. Overall, we're not yet at a desired state, but we're counting on these joint action plans and continuous improvement to achieve our second half ramp.

這些舉措使得7月份迄今的材料投入與第二季度平均水平相比實現了兩位數的增長，這是一個良好的開端。總體而言，我們尚未達到預期狀態，但我們依靠這些聯合行動計劃和持續改進來實現下半年的成長。

So far in July relative to April, we've seen overall higher engine output, stability, and reduced variability. We're also deploying FLIGHT DECK aggressively in our own operations to improve safety, quality, delivery, and cost. And in that order, we've made solid progress in support of our airline customers. For example, our internal shop visit output improved 15% sequentially, and nowhere has this improvement been more visible than with LEAP.

到目前為止，七月相對於四月而言，我們看到引擎輸出功率整體更高、更穩定、變化性降低。我們也在自己的營運中積極部署 FLIGHT DECK，以提高安全性、品質、交付和成本。按此順序，我們在支援航空客戶方面取得了堅實的進展。例如，我們的內部店內訪問產出比上一季提高了 15％，而使用 LEAP 後，這項改進最為明顯。

We've continued to decrease our turnaround time for LEAP shop visits to 86 days compared to roughly 100 days in 2023 This yielded a 9% increase in LEAP internal shop visits sequentially. We're also investing both organically and inorganically to meet the expected growth in shop visits as the LEAP fleet doubles by 2030.

我們繼續將 LEAP 店內訪問的周轉時間從 2023 年的約 100 天減少到 86 天，這使得 LEAP 內部店內訪問量環比增加了 9%。隨著 LEAP 車隊到 2030 年將增加一倍，我們還將進行有機和無機投資以滿足店內訪問量的預期增長。

As we announced last week, over the next five years, we're planning to invest $1 billion in our MRO facilities around the world to increase capacity and introduce new technologies to further reduce turnaround time and costs. This includes a recent agreement to acquire dedicated LEAP test cell, unlocking a key constraint in our shop visit output.

正如我們上週宣布的那樣，未來五年內，我們計劃向世界各地的 MRO 設施投資 10 億美元，以提高產能並引進新技術，進一步縮短週轉時間和降低成本。這包括最近達成的一項協議，該協議旨在獲取專用的 LEAP 測試單元，從而解決我們車間存取輸出中的一個關鍵限制。

Overall, I am encouraged by our progress, but by no means satisfied. I'm confident that in the second half we'll increase engine delivery significantly and continue to grow shop visits in support of our customers. In the quarter while output weighed on revenue, GE Aerospace delivered significant profit and free cash flow growth. Demand remained strong, with orders up 18%. Revenue was up with growth in both segments, services growth combined with price more than offset the lower engine shipments.

總的來說，我對我們的進步感到鼓舞，但絕不感到滿意。我相信，下半年我們將大幅增加引擎交付量，並繼續增加維修店訪問量，以支持我們的客戶。本季度，雖然產量影響了收入，但 GE 航空航太集團實現了利潤和自由現金流的大幅成長。需求依然強勁，訂單成長了18％。收入隨著兩個部門的成長而增加，服務成長加上價格上漲抵消了引擎出貨量的下降。

Our operating profit was $1.9 billion, up 37% year over year from services growth, price, and favorable mix. Operating margins expanded 560 basis points to 23.1%. Both operating profit and margin were up significantly at CES and DPT.

我們的營業利潤為 19 億美元，由於服務成長、價格和有利的產品組合而比去年同期成長 37%。營業利益率擴大560個基點至23.1%。CES 和 DPT 的營業利潤和利潤率均大幅上升。

Adjusted EPS was $1.20, up more than 60% year over year. This improvement was driven by increased operating profit combined with a lower tax rate. Free cash flow was $1.1 billion, up nearly 20%, driven by higher earnings, which more than offset inventory growth from the supply chain constraints I mentioned a moment ago.

調整後每股收益為 1.20 美元，年增超過 60%。這一改善是由於營業利潤增加和稅率降低。自由現金流為 11 億美元，成長近 20%，這得益於收益增加，遠遠抵消了我剛才提到的供應鏈限制導致的庫存成長。

Halfway through the year, we're well-positioned with earnings and free cash flow both up significantly year over year and free cash flow conversion of nearly 120%, giving us confidence to raise our full year profit and cash guidance. This continued profit and free cash flow growth, combined with returning approximately $25 billion of available cash to shareholders will continue to compound returns. Now over to Rahul for the details on our segment results and our guidance.

今年已過半，我們的盈利和自由現金流較上年同期均大幅增長，自由現金流轉換率接近 120%，這讓我們有信心提高全年利潤和現金預期。持續的利潤和自由現金流成長，加上向股東返還約 250 億美元的可用現金，將繼續帶來複合回報。現在請拉胡爾詳細介紹我們的分部業績和指引。

Thank you, Larry, and good day, everyone. Starting with CES. Air traffic growth remained robust with departures up 9% year to date, and we continue to expect to be up high single digits for the full year. Passenger departures are expected to be up high single digits as narrow-body remains solid with the LEAP up nearly 30% in the second quarter, more than 3x that of overall narrow-body market. Dedicated freight departures are now expected to be up mid-single digits versus our prior expectation of low-single digits.

謝謝你，拉里，大家好。從 CES 開始。航空運輸量維持強勁成長，今年迄今出發航班數量已成長 9%，我們預計全年航空運輸量仍將維持高個位數成長。由於窄體客機市場保持穩健，預計乘客出發人數將出現高個位數成長，第二季 LEAP 成長率接近 30%，是整體窄體客機市場的 3 倍以上。目前預計專用貨運出貨數量將成長中個位數，而我們先前預期的是低個位數。

Moving to CES's second quarter results. Sustained commercial momentum drove significant orders growth, up 38% this quarter. Both services and equipment were up more than 35% with strong spare parts demand. Revenue grew 7% with services volume and price more than offsetting lower engine deliveries.

轉向 CES 的第二季業績。持續的商業發展勢頭推動訂單大幅成長，本季成長了 38%。服務設備均上漲了35%以上，零件需求強勁。收入成長了 7%，服務量和價格足以抵消引擎交付量的下降。

Services grew 14% from mid-teens internal shop visit growth with strength in time and material visits and improved pricing. As expected, year-on-year shop visits grew more than spare parts. Equipment revenue declined 11% from 26% lower engine shipments. This was partially offset by customer mix and price.

服務成長了 14%，內部店內訪問量增長率從十五六成增長到十四成，得益於時間和材料訪問量的增加以及定價的改善。正如預期的那樣，同比來看，維修店的到訪數量比備件數量的增長要多。引擎出貨量下降26%，導致設備收入下降11%。這被客戶組合和價格部分抵消了。

Supply chain constraints impacted shipments across both narrow-body and wide-body with LEAP down 29%. Profit was $1.7 billion, up 21%, with margins expanding 320 basis points, driven by improved performance in services from higher volume, pricing, and mix. Lower engine shipments and improving LEAP services profitability also supported profit and margin expansion. This more than offset the impact of lower spare engine deliveries and increased investments that impacted equipment profit. Taking a step back at CES, we delivered a strong first half with services revenue up 13% and overall segment profit up nearly 20%.

供應鏈限制影響了窄體和寬體飛機的出貨量，導致 LEAP 下降了 29%。利潤為 17 億美元，成長 21%，利潤率擴大 320 個基點，這得益於服務品質、價格和產品組合的提高所帶來的績效提升。引擎出貨量下降和LEAP服務獲利能力的提高也支持了利潤和利潤率的擴大。這遠遠抵消了備用引擎交付量下降和投資增加對設備利潤的影響。回顧 CES，我們上半年表現強勁，服務收入成長 13%，整體分部利潤成長近 20%。

Turning to DPT. The sector remains resilient, with US defense spending expected to grow low-single digits and international up mid-single digits. With FLIGHT DECK, we are focused on running this business better to deliver more predictably while continuing to invest in the future of combat.

轉向 DPT。該產業仍保持彈性，美國國防開支預計將成長低個位數，國際國防開支預計將成長中個位數。借助 FLIGHT DECK，我們專注於更好地經營這項業務，以更可預測地交付，同時繼續對未來戰鬥進行投資。

We recently achieved a significant milestone, delivering two T901 engines for the US Army's improved turbine engine program or ITEP. For integration and testing on the UH-60 Black Hawk, the T901 engine will ensure that war fighters have the performance power and reliability necessary to maintain significant advantage on the battlefield for decades to come.

我們最近實現了一個重要的里程碑，為美國陸軍改進型渦輪發動機計劃（ITEP）交付了兩台 T901 發動機。對於在 UH-60 黑鷹直升機上的整合和測試，T901 發動機將確保戰鬥機具有必要的性能和可靠性，以在未來幾十年內在戰場上保持顯著優勢。

Turning to our results. Orders were down 25%, primarily due to timing of orders in Defense and Systems. Defense book-to-bill was 0.9 in the quarter and 1.0 for the first half. Revenue grew 1%. Defense and Systems revenue was down 6%. Engine deliveries were down approximately 60% from supply chain challenges and a tough year-over-year compare when we delivered significantly higher units. This more than offset pricing and services growth.

談到我們的結果。訂單下降了25％，主要原因是國防和系統訂單的時間表。本季國防訂單出貨比為 0.9，上半年為 1.0。收入成長了1%。國防和系統收入下降了 6%。由於供應鏈遇到挑戰，引擎交付量下降了約 60%，與去年同期相比，我們的交付量大幅增加，情況十分艱難。這遠遠抵消了定價和服務的成長。

Propulsion and Additive Technologies grew 16% with growth across several businesses from higher output and improved pricing. Profit was $344 million, up more than 70% year over year, with margins expanding 580 basis points from higher output, favorable product mix, productivity, price, and the absence of program-related costs.

推進和增材技術業務成長了 16%，由於產量增加和價格上漲，多項業務均實現了成長。利潤為 3.44 億美元，比去年同期增長 70% 以上，由於產量增加、產品組合有利、生產率高、價格合理以及沒有項目相關成本，利潤率擴大了 580 個基點。

Through the first half of the year, DPT delivered high-single digit revenue growth and significant operating profit improvement. The business remains well-positioned to deliver growth over the medium term with a backlog of nearly $17 billion.

今年上半年，DPT 的收入實現了高個位數成長，營業利潤也顯著提高。憑藉近 170 億美元的積壓訂單，該公司仍處於有利地位，預計將在中期實現成長。

Spending a moment on corporate. Adjusted costs and inter-company eliminations were roughly $130 million, down nearly 40% year over year. This $80 million improvement is from actions taken to streamline our cost structure, accelerate elimination or wind-down costs, and favorable interest income that more than offset higher inter-company eliminations.

花一點時間在公司上。調整後成本和公司間抵銷約 1.3 億美元，較去年同期下降近 40%。這 8000 萬美元的改進來自於我們採取的簡化成本結構、加速消除或削減成本的措施，以及優惠的利息收入，這些收入足以抵消更高的公司間消除成本。

As part of our continued efforts to simplify and focus on our core, this quarter we completed the sale of electric insurance. We also reached an agreement to sell the licensing business and a reinsurance agreement to exit a block of our life and health insurance business. Combined, these actions will result in proceeds of roughly $700 million of investing cash flow.

作為我們不斷努力簡化和專注於核心業務的一部分，本季我們完成了電力保險的銷售。我們也達成了出售許可業務的協議，以及退出部分人壽和健康保險業務的再保險協議。這些舉措合計將帶來約 7 億美元的投資現金流。

Looking ahead, given the strong results and the momentum in our business, we are raising our profit and cash guidance. We are reducing our revenue guidance, given lower engine output expectations. Growth is now projected to be up high-single digits due to lower equipment revenue in CES. We now expect CES equipment revenue to be up high single to low double digits from prior guidance of up high-teens.

展望未來，鑑於強勁的業績和業務發展勢頭，我們將提高利潤和現金預期。由於引擎產量預期下降，我們正在下調收入預期。由於 CES 上的設備收入下降，預計成長率將達到高個位數。我們現在預計 CES 設備收入將比之前預測的高十幾個百分點增長高個位數至低兩位數。

This includes our updated full year LEAP output expectations of flat to up 5% year over year. We continue to expect CES services to grow mid-teens, putting overall growth of CES at low-double digits to mid-teens. Consistent with prior guidance, we expect DPT growth of mid to high single digits.

其中包括我們更新後的全年 LEAP 產出預期，即年持平至成長 5%。我們繼續預期 CES 服務將以十五六位數的速度成長，使 CES 的整體成長率達到低兩位數至十五六位數。與先前的指引一致，我們預期 DPT 成長率將達到中高個位數。

Operating profit is now expected to be in a range of $6.5 billion to $6.8 billion, up $250 million at the midpoint from prior guidance, with margin expansion year over year. This improvement is primarily from CES, with operating profit now expected to be $6.3 billion to $6.5 billion from $6.1 billion to $6.4 billion previously, reflecting improved services performance and impact of lower equipment sales.

目前預計營業利潤在 65 億美元至 68 億美元之間，比先前預期中位數高出 2.5 億美元，利潤率也將較去年同期擴大。這項改善主要得益於 CES，預計營業利潤將從先前的 61 億美元到 64 億美元增至 63 億美元到 65 億美元，這反映了服務績效的提高和設備銷售額下降的影響。

DPT profit guidance is unchanged and corporate cost and inter-company eliminations are now expected to be below $900 million from approximately $1 billion previously. Our expectations for interest expense and tax rate are unchanged, and we are raising our adjusted EPS guidance range to $3.95 to $4.20, up more than 50% year over year at the midpoint from higher profit growth.

DPT 利潤指引保持不變，公司成本和公司間抵銷預計將從先前的約 10 億美元降至 9 億美元以下。我們對利息支出和稅率的預期保持不變，並且我們將調整後的每股收益預期範圍上調至 3.95 美元至 4.20 美元，由於利潤增長較快，中位數同比增長超過 50%。

We are also raising our free cash flow guidance to $5.3 billion to $5.6 billion, with above 100% conversion of net income, given profit growth. While we still expect to reduce working capital for the year, the improvement is expected to be lower, given the impact of supply chain challenges to inventory. Overall, free cash flow is up approximately $700 million year over year at the midpoint. All in, GE Aerospace is positioned for significant revenue, profit, and free cash flow growth with strong conversion in 2024. Larry, back to you.

考慮到利潤的成長，我們也將自由現金流預期上調至 53 億美元至 56 億美元，淨收入轉換率將超過 100%。儘管我們仍預期今年的營運資本將減少，但考慮到供應鏈挑戰對庫存的影響，預計改善幅度會較低。總體而言，自由現金流較去年同期增加約 7 億美元。總而言之，GE航空集團預計在 2024 年實現顯著的營收、利潤和自由現金流成長以及強勁的轉型。拉里，回到你身邊。

Rahul, thanks. As we take flight as GE Aerospace, we have sustained competitive advantages with a tremendous value proposition. With the industry's largest and growing fleets or platforms are preferred by customers across the narrow body wide body and defense sectors, we're aiming to provide entry, industry-leading reliability and durability, prioritizing SQDC in that order.

拉胡爾，謝謝。隨著 GE 航空航太集團的起飛，我們憑藉著巨大的價值主張保持了競爭優勢。由於業界規模最大且不斷成長的機隊或平台受到窄體寬體飛機和國防領域客戶的青睞，我們的目標是提供入門級、業界領先的可靠性和耐用性，並按此順序優先考慮 SQDC。

This means delivering unmatched time on wing and faster turnaround times for our customers. With our deep domain expertise and engineering talent, commitment to innovation, and capacity to invest, we're poised to deliver breakthrough technologies in both commercial and defense.

這意味著為我們的客戶提供無與倫比的在機時間和更快的周轉時間。憑藉我們深厚的領域專業知識和工程人才、對創新的承諾和投資能力，我們準備在商業和國防領域提供突破性技術。

And with FLIGHT DECK as our foundation, we'll deliver for customers and create exceptional value for shareholders. All in, we expect to grow operating profit to approximately $10 billion in 2028 and generate free cash flow in excess of net income, creating compounding returns.

以 FLIGHT DECK 為基礎，我們將為客戶提供服務並為股東創造卓越的價值。整體而言，我們預計到 2028 年營業利潤將成長至約 100 億美元，並產生超過淨收入的自由現金流，從而創造複合回報。

We're making meaningful progress to advance our strategic priorities in service of our customers, employees, and shareholders, while keeping an eye towards the future and paving the way with innovation for more sustainable flight. Now, Blaire, let's go to questions.

我們正在取得有意義的進展，推動我們的策略重點，為我們的客戶、員工和股東提供服務，同時著眼於未來，以創新鋪平道路，實現更永續的飛行。現在，布萊爾，我們來提問吧。

Before we open the line, I'd ask everyone in the queue to consider your fellow analysts and ask one question, so we can get to as many people as possible. Liz, can you please open the line?

在我們開始通話之前，我請排隊的每個人都考慮一下您的同事分析師，並提出一個問題，以便我們可以聯繫到盡可能多的人。莉茲，你能打開電話線嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Robert Spingarn, Melius Research.

（操作員指示）Robert Spingarn，Melius Research。

Good afternoon. I don't know who wants to take this one, but I wanted to ask you, just given the slower ramp on the narrow-body programs as well as the durability issues on the geared turbofan, we've seen airlines extending the lives of older aircraft and engines, are we getting to the point where some of your CFM56 customers are talking about increasing the work scope of their third shop visits or maybe even doing a fourth shop visit?

午安.我不知道誰想接這個任務，但我想問您，鑑於窄體機項目的增長速度較慢以及齒輪傳動渦扇發動機的耐久性問題，我們看到航空公司延長了老舊飛機和發動機的使用壽命，我們是否已經到了這樣的地步：您的一些 CFM56 客戶正在談論增加第三次進廠維修的工作範圍，甚至可能進行第四次進廠維修？

Well, Rob, I think that you really put your finger on one of the important underlying dynamics here, not only in the quarter. But as we think about the second half and even the next few years, the CFM56 is clearly still the workhorse of the industry, right?

好吧，羅布，我認為你確實指出了這裡一個重要的潛在動態，而不僅僅是在本季度。但展望下半年乃至未來幾年，CFM56顯然仍是業界的主力，對嗎？

I mean, we look at utilization in a time when people thought we might begin to see a little bit of a fade utilization year over year is consistent with the CFM56. Delighted to see the LEAP up 4 points from a share perspective. So overall, GE narrow-body powered propulsion is probably north of 70%. So I think the CFM is going to have a longer life in many fleets. And clearly that's going to help us in the aftermarket, both from a from a volume and from a scope perspective.

我的意思是，當人們認為我們可能會開始看到利用率逐年下降時，我們觀察了利用率，這與 CFM56 是一致的。從份額角度來看，很高興看到 LEAP 上漲了 4 個百分點。因此整體而言，GE窄體動力推進器的比例可能超過70%。因此我認為 CFM 在許多車隊中的使用壽命將會更長。顯然，無論從數量或範圍的角度來看，這都將有助於我們在售後市場的發展。

Rob, just to maybe add a little bit to what Larry said, just given the dynamics that he mentioned and you mentioned earlier, we are expecting that the peak shop visit that we had previously projected in 2025 and then you start to see the sequential downtick in '26, '27 is what we said at Investor Day.

羅布，也許我可以對拉里說的話做一點補充，考慮到他提到的動態和你之前提到的動態，我們預計，我們之前預測的 2025 年店鋪訪問量將達到峰值，然後你會開始看到 2026 年和 2027 年的連續下降，這就是我們在投資者日上所說的。

As we sit here today, we do expect that, you know, shop visits probably plateau at that 25 level for maybe another couple of years and then start declining. So definitely, we are seeing that the platform is getting used and the shop visits will be higher for an extended period of time, and we will see third shop visits and that we're seeing that even with some of the leasers coming out and commenting that the leases are getting extended beyond 14, 15 years for another four or five years. So we will definitely see what you just said.

今天，我們確實預計，商店客流量可能會在未來幾年穩定在 25 這個水平，然後開始下降。因此，我們確實看到該平台正在被使用，店鋪訪問量將在較長時間內保持較高水平，我們將看到第三次店鋪訪問，並且我們看到甚至一些租賃者出來評論說租期將從 14 至 15 年延長至接下來的四至五年。所以我們一定會看到你剛才所說的話。

Myles Walton, Wolfe Research.

邁爾斯·沃爾頓，沃爾夫研究公司。

Hey, good morning. I apologize for the background noise. I'm actually here at the show. I was hoping, Larry you could comment on the 15 supplier sites and 9 suppliers seem to the source of the bulk of the delays in parts and where that was last year and maybe just if you can bucket the types of products we're talking about at those 15 sites. Thanks.

嘿，早安。對於背景噪音我深感抱歉。我確實來到了演出現場。我希望，拉里，你可以對 15 個供應商站點發表評論，9 個供應商似乎是造成零件延誤的主要原因，以及去年的情況，也許你可以將我們在這 15 個站點上討論的產品類型進行分類。謝謝。

Myles, we can hear you loud and clear, we're not we're not too far away, I suspect. I think if you go back to April, what we said was three quarters of the challenge with respect to deliveries was really rooted in these 15 supplier sites, again, with 9 different companies.

邁爾斯，我們能清楚地聽到你的聲音，我懷疑我們離得不是太遠。我想如果回顧四月份，我們說過，與交付相關的四分之三的挑戰實際上源於這 15 個供應商站點，同樣涉及 9 家不同的公司。

And rather than finger point, our mindset was we're going to problem solve and we've gone in deeply again with FLIGHT DECK to really try to understand these constraints at the core and the slide that you see in the deck, I think, is evidence that, that approach that collaborative problem-solving rather than finger-pointing is really yielding results.

我們的想法是解決問題，而不是互相指責。我們再次深入研究了 FLIGHT DECK，真正嘗試從根本上理解這些限制，我認為，您在幻燈片中看到的幻燈片證明，協作解決問題而不是互相指責的方法確實取得了成果。

We didn't expect that we would see a blanket impact immediately, but to be able to point to two-thirds of those sites showing strong, nearly doubling of their sequential outputs, inputs to us, I think really tells us something, right, that this approach is going to have impact. Unfortunately, we didn't have all of the impact that we would have liked across those 15.

我們並沒有想到會立即看到全面的影響，但是能夠指出其中三分之二的站點表現出強勁勢頭，其連續產出和輸入幾乎翻了一番，我認為這確實告訴我們一些事情，對吧，這種方法將會產生影響。不幸的是，我們並沒有在這 15 場比賽中發揮我們所希望的全部影響力。

And we need everybody's ore in the water, if you will, we need everybody contributing, particularly with respect to new engine deliveries. But I think given what we have seen here in July, the way that we're working across different commodity classes shows that this approach is a better way to get more not only here in the third quarter or the second half, but as we think about what is a multiyear wrap, right, the airframers that we talk to here at Farnborough, certainly in the airlines as well, no one loves the fact that a new narrow-body order may not be delivered until '29 or '30.

我們需要每個人的參與，如果你願意的話，我們需要每個人都做出貢獻，特別是在新引擎交付方面。但我認為，根據我們在 7 月看到的情況，我們在不同商品類別中的工作方式表明，這種方法不僅適用於第三季度或下半年，而且當我們考慮多年的合約時，對吧，我們在範堡羅航展上交談過的飛機製造商，當然也包括航空公司，沒有人喜歡新的窄體飛機訂單可能要到 29 年或 30 年才能交付。

So it's all about the ramp. We've got years in front of us, thankfully, what a wonderful business challenge to have. But I really like the way our suppliers have met us here, embraced the tools, and we just need more time working in this fashion in order to have the fact that we, our airframer, and our airline customers, all desire.

所以一切都與坡道有關。值得慶幸的是，我們還有多年的時間，這是多麼美妙的商業挑戰。但我真的很喜歡我們的供應商在這裡與我們會面、接受這些工具的方式，我們只是需要更多的時間以這種方式工作，以實現我們、我們的飛機製造商和我們的航空公司客戶都渴望實現的目標。

Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies.

傑富瑞 (Jefferies) 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

Hi, Good morning, Larry and Rahul, how are you?

嗨，早安，拉里和拉胡爾，你們好嗎？

Good. Thank you, Sheila.

好的。謝謝你，希拉。

Maybe if I could ask about the CES margins, which were pretty awesome. So just looking at the LEAP deliveries in the quarter, Q1 versus Q2, Q2 had 70 less LEAP deliveries in the quarter. So about a $10 million profit swing depending upon your loss assumption there. So CES margins of 27% in Q2 versus Q1 of '23 implies that the core service margin improved about 1,000 basis points to 1,500 basis points depending on what you want to choose, so 25% to 35%-plus. So what drove that despite shop visits being better than spares? And how do we think about the second half progression?

也許我可以詢問一下 CES 的利潤率，結果相當不錯。因此，只看本季的 LEAP 交付量，與第二季相比，第一季的 LEAP 交付量減少了 70 輛。因此，大約 1000 萬美元的利潤波動取決於您的損失假設。因此，與 23 年第一季相比，第二季 CES 的利潤率為 27%，這意味著核心服務利潤率提高了約 1,000 個基點到 1,500 個基點，具體取決於您想要選擇的內容，因此是 25% 到 35% 以上。那麼，儘管維修店的維修品質比備件好，但是什麼原因導致了這種情況的發生呢？那我們該如何看待下半場的進展呢？

Yes, no Sheila, it was a good quarter for CES overall. OE volume was weak, as you pointed out, but the service revenue recovered really nicely. And the overall services growth was kind of in line with what we had projected for full year. So it kind of came in exactly what we were thinking.

是的，不，希拉，總體來說，這對 CES 來說是一個好季度。正如您所指出的，OE 銷售疲軟，但服務收入恢復得非常好。整體服務成長與我們對全年的預測一致。所以它確實和我們想的一樣。

And the drop-through from services was very strong. The shop visits skewed towards time and material work. And then the work scopes were heavier as well and that helped both revenue and the profit on those shop visits. This, along with pricing and customer mix helped the services profit growth. And in equipment, the engine shipments were lower, but within equipment, we also reduced our spare engine deliveries and higher investments. And that kind of offset the impact of the lower engine shipments. So overall, OE profit was more flattish than anything else.

服務業的下滑幅度非常強勁。店鋪訪問偏向時間和材料工作。而且工作範圍也更大了，這有助於增加收入和店內訪問的利潤。這項舉措，加上定價和顧客組合，幫助服務利潤成長。在設備方面，引擎出貨量較低，但在設備方面，我們也減少了備用引擎的交付量並增加了投資。這在一定程度上抵消了引擎出貨量下降的影響。因此整體而言，OE利潤比其他任何利潤都更為平穩。

Now as we look at the trend in first half that gave us the confidence here to raise profit expectations for the full year by, call it, $150 million to $200 million at the midpoint of the guide. Now what's driving that are two things. One, the services growth that we just mentioned, all the things that we are seeing we projected that favorability to now flow through into the second half as well, both with work scopes and some of the customer mix being favorable.

現在，我們回顧上半年的趨勢，這給了我們信心，將全年利潤預期上調，也就是指南中位數為 1.5 億至 2 億美元。現在推動這一進程的是兩件事。首先，我們剛才提到的服務成長，以及我們看到的所有事情，我們預測這種有利因素也將延續到下半年，無論是工作範圍還是部分客戶組合都是有利的。

And then we lowered our OE revenue output by, call it $600 million to $650 million at the midpoint of the guide, and that is helping profit. So that is where you see our CES profit up for the year, $150 million to $200 million. And the margins for CES at this level will be flattish for the year. And that is despite this being the first year of 9x shipments. So really, really happy with the way the CES business is coming along

然後，我們將 OE 收入產出降低了 6 億美元至 6.5 億美元，這是指南的中間值，這有助於提高利潤。所以您可以看到我們今年的 CES 利潤成長了 1.5 億美元至 2 億美元。而今年 CES 在此級別的利潤率將會持平。儘管這是 9x 出貨量的第一年，但情況仍然如此。我對 CES 業務的進展非常非常滿意

David Strauss, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的戴維·施特勞斯（David Strauss）。

Thanks. Good morning, good afternoon. Larry, can you just maybe dig into this the lower LEAP shipments in in the quarter. I know you're talking about things progressing with these 9 suppliers. But at the same time, obviously deliveries were way down the quarter, I would imagine they were 100, 125, short of your internal expectations. Can you kind of just square that things are getting better, but deliveries were a lot lower than expected? Thanks.

謝謝。早安，下午好。拉里，您能否深入研究本季 LEAP 出貨量較低的原因。我知道您正在談論這 9 家供應商的進展。但與此同時，本季的交付量顯然大幅下降，我猜想應該比你們的內部預期少了 100 到 125 輛。您能否解釋一下，情況正在好轉，但交付量卻比預期低得多？謝謝。

David, I don't want to repeat what I said earlier. I do think one of the things to keep in mind is that there is a timing dynamic relative to when we receive various inputs and win in turn, we convert that into an engine that we can deliver, be it Airbus or Boeing, right.

大衛，我不想重複我之前說過的話。我確實認為需要牢記的一件事是，相對於我們收到各種輸入並反過來獲勝而言，存在一個時間動態，我們將其轉換成我們可以交付的引擎，無論是空中巴士還是波音，對吧。

So April was challenging in a number of ways. We didn't have the recovery in May that I think we had hoped we might see underlying the quarter. Sequentially, it was the net improvement that I mentioned. And that has only continued to build here in July. We haven't seen that somewhat typically slow start to a quarter that I was concerned about.

因此，四月在許多方面都充滿挑戰。我認為，五月我們並沒有出現我們期望的本季復甦。依次類推，這就是我提到的淨改善。而這趨勢在七月仍持續加劇。我們並沒有看到我所擔心的本季開局較為緩慢的情況。

So there's really nothing more I can say about why the new unit deliveries, LEAP included were disappointing. It is what it is, where we're focused as we think about the rest of the year is how do we deliver more and how do we deliver more reliably?

所以我真的無法再說什麼來解釋為什麼包括 LEAP 在內的新機組交付令人失望。事實就是如此，當我們考慮今年剩餘時間時，我們關注的重點是如何提供更多服務以及如何更可靠地提供服務？

You'll note that we are adjusting our outlook for LEAP deliveries this year. On a full year basis, we now think we will be somewhere between flat and up 5%, obviously lower than where we thought, but still showing a modest growth.

您會注意到，我們正在調整今年 LEAP 交付的前景。從全年來看，我們現在認為成長將在持平和成長 5% 之間，顯然低於我們的預期，但仍顯示出適度的成長。

And more importantly, I think given what we're doing with FLIGHT DECK in the supply base, the expectations we have not only for more inputs, but in turn more outputs, positions us to be at a healthier, more stable, higher exit rate come the end of the year. That's where we're focused. That's what we're sharing with our customers work to do work I think this team knows how to do.

更重要的是，我認為考慮到我們在供應基地對飛行甲板所做的工作，我們不僅期望有更多的投入，而且期望有更多的產出，這將使我們在年底時擁有更健康、更穩定、更高的出口率。這就是我們關注的重點。這就是我們與客戶分享的工作，我認為這個團隊知道如何做。

Seth Seifman, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的塞思‧塞夫曼 (Seth Seifman)。

Yeah, thanks very much and good morning. I wondered just to kind of follow up on that last question and thinking about the progression on the delivery side, I think you need a pretty significant increase off of the Q2 equipment revenue level to get to the guide for the year. Is it going to be possible to make much progress in Q3? Should we expect much more significant progress in Q4? And any other color that you can provide about the sequential dynamics across the company?

是的，非常感謝，早安。我只是想知道最後一個問題的後續情況，並考慮交付方面的進展，我認為需要在第二季度的設備收入水平上有一個相當大的增長才能達到全年的指導水平。在第三季有可能取得很大進展嗎？我們是否應該期待第四季有更重大的進展？您還可以提供有關整個公司連續動態的其他資訊嗎？

Seth, let me start by just kind of maybe talking a little bit about how we think the back half will shape up and Larry can add if there's anything more on the delivery side. Listen, overall, as you look at our first half to second half growth, first half, we've delivered about 9% growth, and that's kind of in line with what we are projecting for the full year.

塞斯，首先我想簡單談談我們對後半部分將如何發展的看法，如果在交付方面還有什麼要說的，拉里可以補充一下。聽著，總的來說，當你回顧我們上半年到下半年的成長時，上半年我們實現了約 9% 的成長，這與我們對全年的預測一致。

So our year-over-year growth is going to look similar between first half and second half. The year-over-year growth will be higher in the fourth quarter as both services and OE ramp. So we'll see that now in terms of profit and drop-through, the margins will be higher in 3Q versus 4Q since the 9x shipment impact is going to be primarily in the fourth quarter and corporate expenses will be higher in the fourth quarter as well. So we expect the third quarter margins to be kind of flattish year-over-year since we had a strong 3Q last year.

因此，我們上半年和下半年的年成長將會相似。隨著服務和 OE 的成長，第四季的年成長將會更高。因此，我們現在將看到，就利潤和下降率而言，第三季度的利潤率將高於第四季度，因為 9 倍的出貨量影響主要集中在第四季度，而且第四季度的企業費用也將更高。因此，我們預計第三季的利潤率將與去年同期持平，因為去年第三季我們的業績表現強勁。

So now if you look at kind of getting to how 3Q looks operationally, we've had a better start to 3Q. I think Larry mentioned that in his prepared remarks, the number of engines we've shipped here in the third quarter, in the first month of the third quarter in July are significantly higher than what we delivered in the first three weeks in April. So we are seeing sequential progress.

因此，現在如果您看一下第三季的營運情況，我們第三季的開局比較好。我認為拉里在他的準備好的發言中提到過，我們在第三季度的第一個月，也就是七月份發運的發動機數量明顯高於四月份前三週交付的數量。因此，我們看到了連續的進展。

And then if you look at the material input and as we compare the material inputs through the first three weeks in July versus the first three weeks in April, even for these suppliers that have been constraining output in the second quarter, we've seen a significant improvement. So that's going to allow us to drive the sequential improvement here in the third quarter. So I think we are off to a good start more work to do here for sure, but July's been encouraging.

然後，如果你看一下材料投入，並且我們將 7 月份前三週的材料投入與 4 月份前三週的材料投入進行比較，即使對於那些在第二季度一直在限制產量的供應商，我們也看到了顯著的改善。因此這將使我們能夠推動第三季的連續改善。因此我認為我們有一個好的開端，當然還有很多工作要做，但七月的表現令人鼓舞。

Gautam Khanna, Cowen.

高塔姆·卡納，考恩。

Yeah, hey, good morning and thank you, guys and good results. So I was curious just to follow-up, could you talk a little bit about how much inventory you're actually absorbing incrementally in the guidance? And maybe if you can speak to what your strategy is with the supply chain, given some folks are constrained, but some folks are probably ahead, given the lower lead projection relative to the start of the year and like are you in the process of slowing down some folks. If you could just talk about that inventory dynamic and what you're absorbing incrementally and any color you can provide. Thanks.

是的，嘿，早安，謝謝大家，祝你取得好成績。所以我很好奇，只是想跟進一下，您能否談談您在指導中實際上逐步吸收了多少庫存？也許您可以談談您在供應鏈方面的策略，考慮到有些人受到限制，但有些人可能處於領先地位，考慮到相對於年初的領先預測較低，您是否正在放慢某些人的速度。如果您可以談談庫存動態以及您正在逐步吸收的內容以及您能提供的任何資訊。謝謝。

Well, maybe we'll just take those in reverse order. And I'll start. I think that we really aren't trying to slow down in a meaningful way. We're really trying the way I think about it is we're trying to make sure that we're calibrated with respect to what we need from everybody because as you point out, different folks are in different places as we think about the back half, as we think about '25, as we think about '26, I think part of why this has been so challenging and maybe even head-scratchingly so for some is that the industry was dialed down almost zero in the pandemic.

好吧，也許我們應該按相反的順序來做。我先開始了。我認為我們實際上並沒有試圖以有意義的方式放慢腳步。我們確實在嘗試，按照我的想法，我們試圖確保根據每個人的需求進行調整，因為正如你所指出的，不同的人在不同的地方思考下半年，思考'25年，思考'26年，我認為為什麼這對一些人來說如此具有挑戰性甚至令人費解的部分原因是該行業的停擺在疫情中幾乎為零。

And what we don't want to do and the reason we do carry probably more inventory today well at year end than we would like is we don't want to turn down the folks that are performing well unduly as we calibrate the ramp rates with those that will in all likelihood paces.

我們不想做的以及我們在年底時庫存可能比我們希望的更多的原因是，我們不想在校準爬坡率時過度拒絕那些表現良好的人，因為那些最有可能加快速度的人。

So we've taken a view that in some instances, the inventory is in effect an investment with the supply base for ourselves to make sure that we've got a more predictable ramp. Remember, a lot of lean is rooted in flow and flow really is around availability. And to the extent that we've got some folks that are performing. We don't want to, if you will, penalize them as we think about all that we're going to need from them, not only over the next six months, but frankly, over the coming years.

因此，我們認為，在某些情況下，庫存實際上是對我們自己供應基地的投資，以確保我們獲得更可預測的成長。請記住，許多精實都植根於流程，而流程實際上與可用性有關。而就我們目前的表現而言，已經有一些人表現出色。如果你願意的話，我們不想懲罰他們，因為我們考慮到了我們需要他們做的一切，不僅是在未來六個月，而且坦白說，在未來幾年。

And Gautam you'll see that in our 10Q, I think you're spot on, we've seen significant inventory growth here in the first half of the year, close to $1.2 billion of inventory growth, which is call it, $0.5 billion higher than what we grew in the first half of last year, so significant headwind here.

高塔姆，您會看到，在我們的 10Q 中，我認為您說得對，今年上半年我們的庫存顯著增長，接近 12 億美元的庫存增長，也就是比去年上半年的增長高出 5 億美元，因此這裡存在顯著的阻力。

Now with the improvement in output are that we are projecting here for the second half of the year, we do think that while inventory will go grow in the second half of the year, obviously, the pace of growth will slow down significantly here and then it won't be as much of a headwind as it was last year in the second half of the year. So it has been a challenge.

現在，隨著產量的改善，我們預計下半年產量將會增加，我們確實認為，雖然下半年庫存會成長，但顯然成長速度會大幅放緩，不會像去年下半年那樣帶來巨大阻力。所以這是一個挑戰。

But again, as Larry said, that's something we've been trying to manage and manage it as appropriately as we can. But the good news is despite the $1.2 billion of inventory growth in the first half of the year, we still had 120% conversion. So strong cash growth, cash was up about $1 billion year over year in the first half, so we kind of absorbed it, we managed it, and try do better in the second half.

但正如拉里所說，我們一直在努力以盡可能恰當的方式管理此事。但好消息是，儘管上半年庫存增加了 12 億美元，但我們的轉換率仍然達到了 120%。現金成長強勁，上半年現金年增約 10 億美元，因此我們吸收了它，管理了它，並努力在下半年做得更好。

Scott Deuschle, Deutsche Bank.

德意志銀行的 Scott Deuschle。

Hey, good afternoon. Hey, Larry, not to beat the dead horse, but just following-up on Myles' earlier question, I was wondering if you could offer some more detail on those, I guess six or so remaining supplier sites that are the key bottlenecks at this point. Basically, trying to understand if we're down to the investment castings and forgings suppliers at this point or if it's a broader set of bottlenecks and I appreciate not wanting to pointing fingers, but just trying to get a sense for whether there's something in common undergirding this remaining set of suppliers. Thanks.

嘿，下午好。嘿，拉里，我不是要重複老生常談，只是想跟進邁爾斯之前的問題，我想知道你是否可以提供一些更詳細的信息，我猜剩下的六個左右的供應商站點是目前的關鍵瓶頸。基本上，試圖了解我們此時是否依賴熔模鑄件和鍛件供應商，或者這是否是更廣泛的瓶頸，並且我不想指責，而只是想了解是否有一些共同點支撐著剩下的供應商。謝謝。

I think you've heard me pretty clearly, I appreciate that. I think the common denominator is, frankly, we all need to do better and we need to be more collaborative and fully in problem-solving mode. That's the headset we have at GE Aerospace. I'm convinced while that takes different forms of different suppliers, that is where every one of those 9 suppliers across those 15 sites are. Some made more progress than others, but it's a long race, right? This was not a 90-day sprint. This is a marathon.

我想您已經聽得很清楚了，我很感激。坦白說，我認為共同點是，我們都需要做得更好，我們需要更有協作並充分採取解決問題的模式。這就是我們 GE 航空航太公司的耳機。我確信，儘管不同供應商的形式不同，但這 15 個站點中的 9 家供應商都位於此處。有些人比其他人取得更大進步，但這是一場漫長的比賽，對嗎？這並不是一場90天的衝刺。這是一場馬拉松。

And regardless of where folks are from a from a commodity category perspective, from a geography perspective, publicly held, privately held, it just doesn't matter, right. We've got to get the teams there. We got to go deep with getting into the granular operational detail to solve those problems, unlock those constraints, increase capacity, raise yields, much as I think we've been doing, picked up the pace a bit here, I think in the second quarter and just need to do a lot more of that broadly in the second half.

無論人們從商品類別的角度、從地理的角度，是上市公司還是私人公司，這都不重要，對吧。我們必須讓球隊到達那裡。我們必須深入到具體的營運細節來解決這些問題，解除這些限制，增加產能，提高收益率，就像我認為我們一直在做的那樣，在這裡我們加快了一點步伐，我認為在第二季度，我們只需要在下半年做更多這樣的工作。

Robert Stallard, Vertical Research.

羅伯特‧斯托拉德 (Robert Stallard)，垂直研究。

Thanks very much. Good afternoon. Just following on from your earlier comments, Larry, and your confidence in GE's ability to deliver new engines in the second half, what's your confidence in the relative forecasts of the airframers and also their broader supply chain also catching up and delivering the parts.

非常感謝。午安.拉里，根據您先前的評論，以及您對通用電氣在下半年交付新發動機的能力的信心，您對飛機製造商及其更廣泛的供應鏈的相對預測以及趕上和交付零件有何信心？

Well, I think we'll leave to our customers' commentary on everything they're managing. We're focused on what we can manage, right. And I think that the updated guide here, the color around LEAP specifically is certainly that of high-confidence, it wouldn't come out of our mouths. It wouldn't be in our prepared remarks otherwise.

好吧，我想我們會把客戶對他們所管理的一切的評論留給他們。我們專注於我們能夠管理的事情，對吧。我認為，這裡更新的指南，特別是圍繞 LEAP 的色彩肯定是高度自信的，它不會從我們的嘴裡說出來。否則它就不會出現在我們準備好的演講稿中。

But again, work to do work, work I think we're encouraged by with respect to the second quarter impact start to July as well. But we've got a lot of work in front of us. We've got many days to do that work. That's where this team is focused completely, I can assure you.

但是，再次強調，工作還有待開展，我認為我們對 7 月開始的第二季影響感到鼓舞。但我們面前還有很多工作要做。我們有很多天來完成這項工作。我可以向你保證，這就是這個團隊全心全意關注的事情。

Noah Poponak, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的諾亞·波波納克（Noah Poponak）。

Hey, good morning, everyone. You show on slide 17 that the CES services orders are growing much faster than revenue and the absolute dollar levels are much higher. I guess, eventually the overall aftermarket has to normalize as we fully recover air travel growth. What's behind that? How much of that is the LEAP and does that suggest that CES services growth can actually accelerate next year versus this year?

嘿，大家早安。您在第 17 張投影片上看到，CES 服務訂單的成長速度遠遠快於收入，而且絕對美元水準也高得多。我想，隨著航空旅行成長的全面恢復，整體售後市場最終必須恢復正常。這背後有什麼原因？其中有多少是 LEAP？這是否意味著明年 CES 服務成長實際上會比今年加速？

No, no, you're right. I mean we had a good second quarter on orders, we had a good first half. I mean services orders were kind of, as you said, mid-30s for the for the second quarter, up 30% or so for the first half, strong book-to-bill here and in the first half of the year on top of a good book-to-bill we saw in 2023.

不不不，你是對的。我的意思是，我們第二季的訂單狀況很好，上半年的訂單狀況也很好。我的意思是，正如您所說，第二季度的服務訂單量在 35% 左右，上半年增長了 30% 左右，這里和上半年的訂單出貨比都很強勁，而在 2023 年，訂單出貨比也表現良好。

So the momentum is definitely there on the services side. And as you look at the back half of the year, we are expecting the services growth to be a little bit higher in the second half than in the first half, right, both on the shop visits and spare parts on a year-over-year basis.

因此，服務方面肯定存在發展動能。展望下半年，我們預計下半年的服務成長將比上半年略高一些，無論是維修到店量還是備件量與去年同期相比都是如此。

So we delivered 9% in total shop visit growth in the first half of the year. And if you look at our low to mid-teens guidance on shop visits, that would imply that shop visits will be closer to high-teens in the second half of the year on a year-over-year basis. So that's what we are projecting.

因此，我們上半年的總店鋪訪問量增加了 9%。如果你看一下我們對店鋪訪問量的低到中等預測，這將意味著今年下半年的店鋪訪問量與去年同期相比將更接近高十幾率。這就是我們的預測。

But overall it is in mid-teens services growth and that is consistent with what we think the future years will look like. I think that's what we had when we look at our 2025 outlook, you know, we were projecting continued strong services growth, so it's good to see the strong orders growth, good to see, as Larry said earlier, LEAP gaining share on the overall air traffic departure side as well.

但總體而言，服務業成長率處於十五六成左右，這與我們對未來幾年的預測一致。我認為這就是我們在展望 2025 年時所看到的情況，我們預計服務業將繼續強勁增長，因此很高興看到訂單強勁增長，很高興看到，正如 Larry 之前所說，LEAP 在整體空中交通出發方面的份額也在增加。

Gavin Parsons, UBS.

瑞銀的加文·帕森斯（Gavin Parsons）。

Thanks, good morning. I mean, I guess to Rob's question earlier on your extending life of older engines clearly strong demand for both growth and new aircraft, but there's been a couple of airline profit warnings last week or two. So just wanted to ask if you've had any early indications from your discussions with customers, whether it be relating to fleet planning, sensitivity to pricing, or any other changes. Thanks.

謝謝，早安。我的意思是，我想回答 Rob 之前關於延長舊發動機使用壽命的問題，這顯然對增長和新飛機的需求都很強勁，但上週或兩週已經有幾家航空公司發出了盈利預警。所以只是想問一下，您是否從與客戶的討論中得到了任何早期跡象，無論是有關機隊規劃、價格敏感性還是任何其他變化。謝謝。

Yeah, I mean, if you would imagine, we follow all that pretty closely both well in the US, here in Europe, globally. We really have not seen any effect on our business. And to Rahul's comments a moment ago, we'll remain watchful, but don't anticipate that.

是的，我的意思是，如果你能想像的話，我們在美國、歐洲乃至全球都非常密切地關注這一切。我們確實沒有看到對我們的業務有任何影響。對於拉胡爾剛才的評論，我們將保持警惕，但不要預料到這一點。

Again, I think to the to the earlier question with services orders up 36% in CES in the second quarter. That's the way our customers are speaking to us. I look at where we are here in the third quarter, just in terms of how much of the spares activity we have in backlog. I think it's in the 90% range at this point, so well-positioned very early here in the quarter.

再次，我認為對於先前的問題，第二季 CES 上的服務訂單增加了 36%。這就是我們的客戶與我們交談的方式。我看一下第三季我們的狀況，只是看我們積壓的備件數量有多少。我認為目前它已經處於 90% 的範圍內，因此在本季度初期就處於有利地位。

And again, I would just also point to the utilization that we see on the CFM56 still strong, no real change this year and the upshot of the LEAP taking 4 points of market share. So the GE-powered narrow-body activity remained strong.

我再次強調，我還要指出的是，CFM56 的使用率仍然很高，今年沒有真正的變化，而 LEAP 的市佔率則上升了 4 個百分點。因此，採用通用電氣動力的窄體飛機業務仍保持強勁。

You just take up the comments that we're out here in Europe yesterday, it seemed to be more pricing-oriented than anything else. So we'll keep a weather eye out. But right now, our challenge, our struggle is to keep up with this exceptionally strong demand, both in the aftermarket and again with new make.

您剛才提到，我們昨天在歐洲，它似乎比其他任何事情都更注重價格。因此我們會密切注意天氣狀況。但現在，我們面臨的挑戰和努力是滿足這種異常強勁的需求，無論是在售後市場還是新市場。

Jason Gursky, Citi.

花旗銀行的傑森‧古爾斯基 (Jason Gursky)。

Hey, good morning, everybody. Larry, I was wondering if you could just spend a few more minutes on the RISE and maybe provide an update on some development milestones there, how the customer conversations are going at this point. You mentioned that you're showcasing the engine there at Farnborough. I'm just kind of curious what you think customer acceptance is shaping up to look like at this point.

嘿，大家早安。拉里，我想知道您是否可以花幾分鐘時間討論一下 RISE，並提供一些開發里程碑的更新，以及目前客戶對話的進展。您提到您將在範堡羅展示引擎。我只是有點好奇，您認為目前客戶的接受度會是什麼樣的。

Jason, I would say that customer interest seems to only build with the passage of time. This is now the third Air Show in a row that I've attended with the RISE engine, the open fan engine front and center here. Obviously, when we talk about RISE, we're really talking about an umbrella of different technology programs, not only the open fan, but also our compact core work, our hybrid electric activity, and everything we're doing on SAF.

傑森，我想說的是，顧客的興趣似乎只會隨著時間的推移而增強。這是我連續第三次參加航空展，其中展示了RISE發動機，即這裡最顯眼的開風扇發動機。顯然，當我們談論 RISE 時，我們實際上是在談論一系列不同的技術計劃，不僅是開放式風扇，還包括我們的緊湊核心工作、我們的混合電動活動以及我們在 SAF 上所做的一切。

But with respect to open fan, I think what we've been sharing with people is that we had a very good first ingestion test with the open fan blade in the first quarter. We are starting our second endurance campaign or test with the high-pressure turbine airfoils. And there's been a lot of work with respect to the hybrid electric elements of that architecture, work that, as you may know, we do with NASA.

但就開放式風扇而言，我認為我們一直在與人們分享的是，我們在第一季對開放式風扇葉片進行了非常好的首次吸入測試。我們正在開始對高壓渦輪翼型進行第二次耐力賽或測試。我們在這種架構的混合電力元素方面已經做了很多工作，正如你們可能知道的，這些工作是我們與 NASA 合作完成的。

I mentioned, I think earlier, the wind tunnel testing that we've done here in Europe in conjunction with Airbus. So there, I think over 200 -- I think maybe it's 250 component level tests, module level tests that we have behind us. This is still a technology development effort, make no mistake about it, right.

我之前提到過，我們與空中巴士合作在歐洲進行了風洞測試。所以我認為我們已經進行了超過 200 個——我想可能是 250 個組件級測試、模組級測試。這仍然是一項技術開發工作，毫無疑問，對吧。

We've got a long way to go, but what's interesting, particularly here in Europe, virtually every airline CEO that I talk to starts the conversation with sustainability and are very keen to get our views on SAF compatibility, but also ahead of SAF capacity being available at scale, what are we going to do to enable the next generation of narrow-bodies?

我們還有很長的路要走，但有趣的是，特別是在歐洲，幾乎我交談過的每一位航空公司首席執行官都從可持續性開始對話，並且非常渴望了解我們對 SAF 兼容性的看法，但在 SAF 容量大規模可用之前，我們將採取哪些措施來支持下一代窄體飛機？

And we go hard and fast to RISE, talk about the progress that we're making with open fan. And I think that is a story that continues to build enthusiasm and support because we know that the ultimate target, that 20% step-up in propulsive efficiency in emissions reduction really is the future of flight.

我們全力以赴，快速推進，討論我們在開放式風扇方面的進展。我認為這個故事會繼續激發人們的熱情和支持，因為我們知道，最終目標，在減少排放的同時將推進效率提高 20%，才是飛行的未來。

Liz, we have time for one last question.

莉茲，我們還有時間問最後一個問題。

Matt Akers, Wells Fargo.

富國銀行的馬特‧艾克斯 (Matt Akers)。

Hi, good morning, guys. Thanks for the question. I wanted to ask what are your latest thoughts on LEAP kind of breakeven timing, just given volumes are running a little bit lower than we thought and sounds like you're deploying a lot of resources to work through some of these supplier issue? So just curious if that timing has shifted at all.

大家早安。謝謝你的提問。我想問一下，您對 LEAP 盈虧平衡時機的最新看法是什麼，鑑於目前的產量比我們想像的要低一些，而且聽起來您正在部署大量資源來解決一些供應商問題？所以只是好奇這個時間是否已經改變了。

Yeah, Matt. Timing has not shifted. So we expected LEAP services to be profitable here in 2024 and a program to be breakeven in 2025. And LEAP services, in fact, is shaping up a little bit better than what we originally thought as we started the year. And we mentioned that in our prepared remarks.

是的，馬特。時間沒有變化。因此，我們預計 LEAP 服務將在 2024 年實現盈利，並且該計劃將在 2025 年實現收支平衡。事實上，LEAP 服務的進展比我們年初時預想的要好一些。我們在準備好的發言中提到了這一點。

So that's how the overall program is shaping up. We're making the progress on durability that we were expecting. The LEAP is tracking better than CFM56 at this stage of the lifecycle. We are expecting LEAP performance to be in line with CFM56, our performance on the A320s by the end of the year.

整個計劃的進展就是這樣的。我們在耐用性方面取得了預期的進展。在生命週期的這個階段，LEAP 的追蹤效果比 CFM56 更好。我們預計，到今年年底，LEAP 的效能將與 CFM56（我們在 A320 上的效能）保持一致。

So that is obviously a huge milestone, given all the improvements we've been driving, the HPT blade was the last thing that's in and we expect that to happen here in the fourth quarter. We've completed more than 3,500 hours of testing on that. So that's going really well. So all in, I think LEAP is progressing exactly the way we would have liked, services is striking a little bit better, program should breakeven next year.

因此，這顯然是一個巨大的里程碑，考慮到我們一直在推動的所有改進，HPT 刀片是最後一個推出的產品，我們預計它將在第四季度實現。我們已經完成了超過 3,500 小時的測試。一切進展順利。總的來說，我認為 LEAP 的進展正如我們所願，服務正在好轉，專案明年應該能夠實現收支平衡。

Larry, any final comments.

拉里，還有什麼最後的評論嗎？

Blaire, thank you. I think just to close, the GE Aerospace team is going to stay grounded in our responsibility that we share to live the purpose to invent the future flight, to lift people up, and bring them home safely. So we really appreciate your time today and of course, your interest in GE Aerospace.

布萊爾，謝謝你。最後，我想說的是，GE 航太團隊將堅守我們共同的責任，實現發明未來飛行、讓人們安全回家的目標。因此，我們非常感謝您今天抽出時間，當然也感謝您對 GE 航空航天的關注。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝各位，女士們、先生們。今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。