奇異 (GE) 2024 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the GE Aerospace second quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) My name is Liz and I will be your conference coordinator today. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today's conference, Blair Shore from the GE Aerospace Investor Relations team. Please proceed.

女士們、先生們，美好的一天，歡迎參加 GE 航空航太公司 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）我叫 Liz，今天我將擔任您的會議協調員。 （操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。現在，我想將議程移交給今天會議的主持人、GE 航空航太投資者關係團隊的 Blair Shore。請繼續。

Thanks, Liz. Welcome to GE Aerospace's second quarter 2024 earnings call. I'm joined by Chairman and CEO, Larry Culp; and CFO, Rahul Ghai. Many of the statements we're making are forward-looking and based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. As described in our SEC filings, and website, those elements may change as the world changes. Now over to Larry.

謝謝，莉茲。歡迎參加 GE 航空航太公司 2024 年第二季財報電話會議。董事長兼執行長 Larry Culp 也加入了我的行列。和首席財務官拉胡爾·蓋伊。我們所做的許多聲明都是前瞻性的，並且基於我們對世界和我們今天所看到的業務的最佳看法。正如我們在 SEC 文件和網站中所述，這些要素可能會隨著世界的變化而變化。現在輪到拉里。

Blaire, thanks. And hello, everyone, from London, near the Farnborough International Airshow for GE Aerospace's first earnings call as an independent company. GE Aerospace is an exceptional franchise with the industry's largest and growing commercial propulsion fleet and as the rotorcraft and combat engine provider of choice.

布萊爾，謝謝。大家好，大家好，來自倫敦，在範堡羅國際航展附近，參加 GE 航空航天公司作為獨立公司的首次財報電話會議。 GE 航空航太公司是一家卓越的特許經營公司，擁有業界最大且不斷成長的商業推進機隊，並且是旋翼飛機和戰鬥機發動機的首選供應商。

Our installed base of 70,000 commercial and defense engines supports our aftermarket services business, representing about 70% of our revenues that's recurring, resilient, and keeps us close to our customers. Our purpose has never been clearer, to invent the future of flight, lift people up, and bring them home safely. Those last four words, bring them home safely is a serious responsibility.

我們的 70,000 台商用和國防發動機安裝基地支持我們的售後服務業務，約占我們收入的 70%，這些收入是經常性的、有彈性的，並使我們與客戶保持密切聯繫。我們的目標從未如此明確，那就是發明飛行的未來，載人飛行，並將他們安全帶回家。最後四個字，帶他們平安回家，是嚴肅的責任。

At any point there are 900,000 people in the sky with our technology underwing, which is why safety and quality are at the center of everything that we do. Our teams around the world understand it is our top priority and paramount in flight deck, our proprietary lean operating model.

在任何時候，天空中都有 90 萬人在我們的技術支援下，這就是為什麼安全和品質是我們所做的一切的中心。我們遍佈世界各地的團隊明白，這是我們駕駛艙的首要任務，也是我們專有的精實營運模式。

Here at Farnborough, the conversations we're having are energizing and focused on both the opportunities and the challenges the industry is facing as we work together to meet historic demand and build more sustainable solutions.

在範堡羅，我們正在進行的對話充滿活力，重點關注業界在共同努力滿足歷史需求和建立更永續的解決方案時所面臨的機會和挑戰。

We've had a productive few days, including wide body commitments from Turkish Airlines and National Airlines for GE90 engines and Japan Airlines for GEnx engines. We're also honored to have British Airways, a new GEnx customer, committing to six new Boeing-787s powered by our engines.

我們度過了富有成效的幾天，包括土耳其航空公司和國家航空公司對 GE90 發動機的寬體承諾以及日本航空公司對 GEnx 發動機的寬體承諾。我們也很榮幸 GEnx 的新客戶英國航空承諾購買六架由我們的發動機提供動力的新型波音 787。

The GEnx engine offers a 15% lower fuel burn compared to the CF6 and best in class time on-wing resulting in a 70% life of program win rate on the 87 platform. In narrow-bodies, we're pleased the LEAP powered Airbus A321XLR was certified by the European Union Aviation Safety Agency or EASA just last week.

與 CF6 相比，GEnx 引擎的燃油消耗降低了 15%，並具有同類最佳的在翼時間，從而在 87 平台上實現了 70% 的專案壽命勝利率。在窄體飛機方面，我們很高興 LEAP 動力的空中巴士 A321XLR 上週剛獲得歐盟航空安全局 (EASA) 的認證。

The A320XLR marks the fifth member of the A320 NEO family aircraft powered by LEAP engines with expected entry into service later this year. LEAP, the narrow-body engine of choice offers 15% better fuel efficiency than the CFM56 and will deliver mature levels of time on wing later this year.

A320XLR 是採用 LEAP 引擎的 A320 NEO 系列飛機的第五名成員，預計將於今年稍後投入使用。 LEAP 是首選的窄體發動機，其燃油效率比 CFM56 高出 15%，並將在今年稍後提供成熟的在翼時間水平。

In regionals, EMBRAER and GE Aerospace extended our agreement for new CF34 engine deliveries through the end of this decade. This agreement strengthens our partnership as the sole source engine on the E175 and supports the continued growth of regional jets.

在支線飛機方面，EMBRAER 和 GE Aerospace 將我們的新型 CF34 引擎交付協議延長至本十年末。該協議加強了我們作為 E175 唯一來源引擎的合作夥伴關係，並支持支線噴射機的持續發展。

Keeping an eye towards the future, this week at the show, we've shared a number of updates about the CFM RISE program. RISE is the suite of pioneering technologies, including open fan, compact core, hybrid electric systems, and alternative fuels. We continue to mature these technologies moving from component level evaluations to more module level tests.

著眼於未來，在本週的展會上，我們分享了有關 CFM RISE 計劃的許多更新。 RISE 是一套開創性技術，包括開放式風扇、緊湊型核心、混合動力電動系統和替代燃料。我們不斷完善這些技術，從組件級評估轉向更多模組級測試。

For example, with our partner Safran, we've demonstrated the aerodynamic and acoustic performance of the open fan design with more than 200 hours of wind tunnel tests. Additionally, we've announced a new agreement with the US Department of Energy to expand supercomputing capabilities, which will further advance open fan design. The open fan is the most promising engine technology to help the industry reduce emissions, designed to meet or exceed customer expectations for durability and deliver a step change in fuel efficiency.

例如，我們與我們的合作夥伴賽峰集團一起，透過超過 200 小時的風洞測試展示了開放式風扇設計的空氣動力學和聲學性能。此外，我們也宣布與美國能源部達成一項新協議，以擴展超級運算能力，這將進一步推進開放式風扇設計。開放式風扇是最有前途的引擎技術，可幫助業界減少排放，旨在滿足或超越客戶對耐用性的期望，並實現燃油效率的階梯變化。

Turning to some of the key takeaways on our second quarter performance. Our team delivered double-digit growth across orders, operating profit, and free cash flow, while revenue was impacted by lower output. With flight deck, we're well-positioned to accelerate actions to deliver on our priorities for today, tomorrow, and in the future.

轉向我們第二季業績的一些關鍵要點。我們的團隊在訂單、營業利潤和自由現金流方面實現了兩位數的成長，而收入卻受到產量下降的影響。有了駕駛艙，我們就能加速行動，實現今天、明天和未來的優先事項。

In commercial engines and services or CES, air traffic trends remain positive, supporting our services growth and overall profit, which was up more than 20%. Profit growth was driven by 14% internal shop visits growth and improved pricing.

在商用引擎和服務或 CES 領域，空中交通趨勢仍然樂觀，支持我們的服務成長和整體利潤，成長超過 20%。利潤成長得益於 14% 的內部商店客流量成長和定價改善。

In defense and propulsion technologies or DPT, we delivered very strong profit growth, up more than 70% year over year. Services growth in defense and systems and profit improvement in propulsion and additive technologies drove this increase.

在國防和推進技術（DPT）領域，我們實現了非常強勁的利潤成長，比去年同期成長超過 70%。國防和系統服務的成長以及推進和添加劑技術的利潤改善推動了這一成長。

Overall, a very solid quarter and first half, and my thanks go out to the entire global GE Aerospace team. Day in day out, we're focused on delivering for both our airline and airframer customers who simply want and need more of our products and services.

整體而言，本季和上半年表現非常出色，我要感謝整個全球 GE 航空航太團隊。日復一日，我們專注於為航空公司和機身製造商客戶提供服務，他們只是想要並需要更多我們的產品和服務。

While we've made progress and services this quarter, our new engine output was disappointing, down 20% sequentially. It's a clear challenge that we're facing head-on, accelerating the use of flight deck in partnership with our suppliers as we work to solve the ongoing supply chain constraints.

儘管我們本季取得了進展並提供了服務，但我們的新引擎產量卻令人失望，比上一季下降了 20%。這是我們面臨的一個明顯的挑戰，在我們努力解決持續的供應鏈限制的同時，與我們的供應商合作加速駕駛艙的使用。

Last quarter, we shared that the common denominator impacting growth across both services and new engines is constrained material supply, with 80% of material input shortages tied to 9 suppliers across 15 supplier sites. This remains our focus today, we've deployed more than 550 of our engineering and supply chain resources into the supply base to use flight deck to work hand-in-hand with our suppliers to identify and resolve constraints.

上季度，我們指出影響服務和新引擎成長的共同點是材料供應受到限制，80% 的材料投入短缺與 15 個供應商地點的 9 家供應商有關。這仍然是我們今天的重點，我們已將 550 多個工程和供應鏈資源部署到供應基地，利用駕駛艙與供應商攜手合作，識別並解決限制。

We made significant improvements in many areas and more than two-thirds of these site's material flow more than doubled sequentially and is currently no longer constraining deliveries. We're grateful for their collaboration, but there's still more to do in the second half.

我們在許多領域做出了重大改進，這些站點中超過三分之二的物料流量連續增加了一倍以上，並且目前不再限制交付。我們感謝他們的合作，但下半年還有更多工作要做。

And we've sharpened our focus on a subset of the remaining priority sites. They're still constraining our output. We're making some progress, but not enough to meet demand. I've personally visited several of these sites, and I'm confident we can partner with our suppliers to drive faster progress.

我們也加強了對剩餘優先站點的子集的關注。他們仍然限制我們的產出。我們正在取得一些進展，但不足以滿足需求。我親自訪問過其中幾個站點，我相信我們可以與供應商合作以推動更快的進展。

For example, earlier this month, we partnered with one of the priorities suppliers in a joint Kaizen focused at on addressing a key constraint. Our supply chain and engineering teams jointly leveraged flight deck to identify action plans to improve throughput significantly aligned with our needs for second-half deliveries.

例如，本月早些時候，我們與優先供應商之一合作開展了聯合 Kaizen，重點解決一個關鍵限制。我們的供應鏈和工程團隊共同利用駕駛艙來確定提高吞吐量的行動計劃，這與我們下半年的交付需求顯著一致。

These actions resulted in a double-digit material input growth here so far in July versus the second quarter average, so a promising start. Overall, we're not yet at a desired state, but we're counting on these joint action plans and continuous improvement to achieve our second half ramp.

這些行動導致 7 月迄今為止，與第二季度平均水平相比，材料投入實現了兩位數的增長，因此這是一個充滿希望的開始。總體而言，我們尚未達到理想的狀態，但我們依靠這些聯合行動計劃和持續改進來實現下半年的成長。

So far in July relative to April, we've seen overall higher engine output, stability, and reduced variability. We're also deploying flight deck aggressively in our own operations to improve safety, quality, delivery, and cost. And in that order, we've made solid progress in support of our airline customers. For example, our internal shop visit output improved 15% sequentially, and nowhere has this improvement been more visible than with LEAP.

到目前為止，與 4 月相比，7 月的引擎輸出總體更高、穩定性更高，且變異性降低。我們也在自己的營運中積極部署駕駛艙，以提高安全性、品質、交付和成本。按照這個順序，我們在支援航空公司客戶方面取得了堅實的進展。例如，我們的內部商店訪問量連續提高了 15%，這種改進比 LEAP 更明顯。

We've continued to decrease our turnaround time for LEAP shop visits to 86 days compared to roughly 100 days in 2023 This yielded a 9% increase in LEAP internal shop visits sequentially. We're also investing both organically and inorganically to meet the expected growth in shop visits as the LEAP fleet doubles by 2030.

我們繼續將 LEAP 商店訪問的周轉時間縮短至 86 天，而 2023 年約為 100 天，這使得 LEAP 內部商店訪問量環比增加了 9%。我們也進行有機和無機投資，以滿足 LEAP 機隊到 2030 年翻一番時預計的商店客流量增長。

As we announced last week, over the next five years, we're planning to invest $1 billion in our MRO facilities around the world to increase capacity and introduce new technologies to further reduce turnaround time and costs. This includes a recent agreement to acquire dedicated LEAP test cell, unlocking a key constraint in our shop visit output.

正如我們上週宣布的，在未來五年內，我們計劃在世界各地的 MRO 設施上投資 10 億美元，以提高產能並引入新技術，以進一步減少週轉時間和成本。這包括最近達成的一項購買專用 LEAP 測試單元的協議，從而解除了我們車間存取輸出中的一個關鍵限制。

Overall, I am encouraged by our progress, but by no means satisfied. I'm confident that in the second half we'll increase engine delivery significantly and continue to grow shop visits in support of our customers. In the quarter while output weighed on revenue, GE Aerospace delivered significant profit and free cash flow growth. Demand remained strong, with orders up 18%. Revenue was up with growth in both segments, services growth combined with price more than offset the lower engine shipments.

總的來說，我對我們的進步感到鼓舞，但絕不滿足。我相信，下半年我們將大幅增加引擎交付量，並繼續增加商店訪問量以支持我們的客戶。在本季度，雖然產量拖累了收入，但通用電氣航空航太公司實現了可觀的利潤和自由現金流成長。需求依然強勁，訂單成長 18%。收入隨著這兩個領域的成長而成長，服務成長加上價格足以抵消引擎出貨量的下降。

Our operating profit was $1.9 billion, up 37% year over year from services growth, price, and favorable mix. Operating margins expanded 560 basis points to 23.1%. Both operating profit and margin were up significantly at CES and DBT.

由於服務成長、價格和有利的組合，我們的營業利潤為 19 億美元，年增 37%。營業利益率擴大 560 個基點，達到 23.1%。 CES 和 DBT 的營業利潤和利潤率均大幅上升。

Adjusted EPS was $1.20, up more than 60% year over year. This improvement was driven by increased operating profit combined with a lower tax rate. Free cash flow was $1.1 billion, up nearly 20%, driven by higher earnings, which more than offset inventory growth from the supply chain constraints I mentioned a moment ago.

調整後每股收益為 1.20 美元，年增超過 60%。這項改善是由營業利潤增加和稅率降低所推動的。在獲利增加的推動下，自由現金流為 11 億美元，成長近 20%，這遠遠抵消了我剛才提到的供應鏈限制所帶來的庫存成長。

Halfway through the year, we're well-positioned with earnings and free cash flow both up significantly year over year and free cash flow conversion of nearly 120%, giving us confidence to raise our full year profit and cash guidance. This continued profit and free cash flow growth, combined with returning approximately $25 billion of available cash to shareholders will continue to compound returns. Now over to Rahul for the details on our segment results and our guidance.

今年過半，我們處於有利地位，盈利和自由現金流均同比大幅增長，自由現金流轉換率接近 120%，這讓我們有信心提高全年利潤和現金指導。利潤和自由現金流的持續成長，加上向股東返還約 250 億美元的可用現金，將繼續帶來複合回報。現在請拉胡爾了解我們的部門業績和指導的詳細資訊。

Thank you, Larry, and good day, everyone. Starting with CES. Air traffic growth remained robust with departures up 9% year to date, and we continue to expect to be up high single digits for the full year. Passenger departures are expected to be up high single digits as narrow-body remains solid with the LEAP up nearly 30% in the second quarter, more than 3x that of overall narrow-body market. Dedicated freight departures are now expected to be up mid-single digits versus our prior expectation of low-single digits.

謝謝拉里，大家好。從 CES 開始。航空運輸量成長依然強勁，今年迄今的出發航班量成長了 9%，我們仍然預計全年將成長高個位數。由於窄體機保持穩定，第二季 LEAP 成長近 30%，是整個窄體機市場成長的 3 倍以上，預計旅客出發量將出現高個位數成長。目前，專用貨運班次預計將成長到中個位數，而我們先前的預期是低個位數。

Moving to CES's second quarter results. Sustained commercial momentum drove significant orders growth, up 38% this quarter. Both services and equipment were up more than 35% with strong spare parts demand. Revenue grew 7% with services volume and price more than offsetting lower engine deliveries.

轉向 CES 第二季業績。持續的商業動能推動訂單大幅成長，本季成長 38%。服務和設備成長超過 35%，備件需求強勁。收入增加了 7%，服務數量和價格足以抵消引擎交付量的下降。

Services grew 14% from mid-teens internal shop visit growth with strength in time and material visits and improved pricing. As expected, year-on-year shop visits grew more than spare parts. Equipment revenue declined 11% from 26% lower engine shipments. This was partially offset by customer mix and price.

由於時間和材料訪問量的增加以及定價的改善，服務從十幾歲左右的內部商店訪問量增長了 14%。正如預期的那樣，商店訪問量的同比增長超過了備件。引擎出貨量下降 26%，設備收入下降 11%。這被客戶組合和價格部分抵消。

Supply chain constraints impacted shipments across both narrow-body and wide-body with LEAP down 29%. Profit was $1.7 billion, up 21%, with margins expanding 320 basis points, driven by improved performance in services from higher volume, pricing, and mix. Lower engine shipments and improving LEAP services profitability also supported profit and margin expansion. This more than offset the impact of lower spare engine deliveries and increased investments that impacted equipment profit. Taking a step back at CES, we delivered a strong first half with services revenue up 13% and overall segment profit up nearly 20%.

供應鏈限制影響了窄體機和寬體機的出貨量，其中 LEAP 下降了 29%。利潤為 17 億美元，成長 21%，利潤率擴大 320 個基點，這得益於銷售、定價和組合的提高，服務績效得到改善。引擎出貨量的下降和 LEAP 服務獲利能力的提高也支持了利潤和利潤率的擴張。這足以抵消備用引擎交付量減少和投資增加對設備利潤的影響。在 CES 上，我們上半年表現強勁，服務收入成長了 13%，整體部門利潤成長了近 20%。

Turning to DPT. The sector remains resilient, with US defense spending expected to grow low-single digits and international up mid-single digits. With flight deck, we are focused on running this business better to deliver more predictably while continuing to invest in the future of combat.

轉向 DPT。該產業仍保持彈性，美國國防支出預計將成長低個位數，國際國防支出將成長中個位數。透過飛行甲板，我們專注於更好地經營這項業務，以更可預測地提供服務，同時繼續投資未來的戰鬥。

We recently achieved a significant milestone, delivering T901 engines for the US Army's improved turbine engine program or ITEP. For integration and testing on the UH-60 Black Hawk, the T901 engine will ensure that war fighters have the performance power and reliability necessary to maintain significant advantage on the battlefield for decades to come.

我們最近實現了一個重要的里程碑，為美國陸軍改進渦輪發動機計劃 (ITEP) 提供 T901 發動機。為了在 UH-60 黑鷹上進行整合和測試，T901 引擎將確保戰鬥機擁有必要的性能和可靠性，以在未來幾十年的戰場上保持顯著優勢。

Turning to our results. Orders were down 25%, primarily due to timing of orders in defense and systems. Defense book-to-bill was 0.9 in the quarter and 1.0 for the first half. Revenue grew 1%. Defense and systems revenue was down 6%. Engine deliveries were down approximately 60% from supply chain challenges and a tough year-over-year compare when we delivered significantly higher units. This more than offset pricing and services growth.

轉向我們的結果。訂單下降 25%，主要是由於國防和系統訂單的時間表。本季國防訂單出貨比為 0.9，上半年為 1.0。收入增長 1%。國防和系統收入下降 6%。由於供應鏈挑戰，引擎交付量下降了約 60%，與去年同期相比，我們的交付量大幅增加，情況非常嚴峻。這遠遠抵消了定價和服務的成長。

Propulsion and additive technologies grew 16% with growth across several businesses from higher output and improved pricing. Profit was $344 million, up more than 70% year over year, with margins expanding 580 basis points from higher output, favorable product mix, productivity, price, and the absence of program-related costs.

推進和增材技術成長了 16%，得益於產量的提高和定價的改善，多個業務都實現了成長。利潤為 3.44 億美元，年成長超過 70%，由於產量增加、有利的產品組合、生產率、價格以及專案相關成本的消除，利潤率擴大了 580 個基點。

Through the first half of the year, DPT delivered high-single digit revenue growth and significant operating profit improvement. The business remains well-positioned to deliver growth over the medium term with a backlog of nearly $17 billion.

今年上半年，DPT 實現了高個位數的收入成長和顯著的營業利潤改善。該業務仍處於有利位置，可在中期實現成長，積壓訂單接近 170 億美元。

Spending a moment on corporate. Adjusted costs and inter-company eliminations were roughly $130 million, down nearly 40% year over year. This [$80 million] improvement is from actions taken to streamline our cost structure, accelerate elimination or wind-down costs, and favorable interest income that more than offset higher inter-company eliminations.

花一點時間在公司上。調整後成本和公司間抵銷約 1.3 億美元，較去年同期下降近 40%。這項 [8000 萬美元] 的改進來自於我們為簡化成本結構、加速消除或逐步削減成本以及有利的利息收入而採取的行動，這些收入足以抵消較高的公司間消除額。

As part of our continued efforts to simplify and focus on our core, this quarter we completed the sale of electric insurance. We also reached an agreement to sell the licensing business and a reinsurance agreement to exit a block of our life and health insurance business. Combined, these actions will result in proceeds of roughly $700 million of investing cash flow.

作為我們持續努力簡化和專注於核心的一部分，本季我們完成了電力保險的銷售。我們也達成了出售許可業務的協議以及退出部分人壽和健康保險業務的再保險協議。這些行動加起來將帶來約 7 億美元的投資現金流收益。

Looking ahead, given the strong results and the momentum in our business, we are raising our profit and cash guidance. We are reducing our revenue guidance, given lower engine output expectations. Growth is now projected to be up high-single digits due to lower equipment revenue in CES. We now expect CES equipment revenue to be up high single to low double digits from prior guidance of up high-teens.

展望未來，鑑於我們業務的強勁業績和勢頭，我們正在提高利潤和現金指導。鑑於引擎輸出預期降低，我們正在降低收入指引。由於 CES 設備收入下降，預計成長將出現高個位數。我們現在預計 CES 設備收入將比先前指導的高個位數成長到高個位數到低兩位數。

This includes our updated full year LEAP output expectations of flat to up 5% year over year. We continue to expect CES services to grow mid-teens, putting overall growth of CES at low-double digits to mid-teens. Consistent with prior guidance, we expect DPT growth of mid to high single digits.

這包括我們更新後的全年 LEAP 產出預期，年比持平至成長 5%。我們繼續預計 CES 服務將成長到十幾歲左右，從而使 CES 的整體成長保持在低兩位數到十幾歲左右。與先前的指導一致，我們預計 DPT 成長將達到中高個位數。

Operating profit is now expected to be in a range of $6.5 billion to $6.8 billion, up $250 million at the midpoint from prior guidance, with margin expansion year over year. This improvement is primarily from CES, with operating profit now expected to be $6.3 billion to $6.5 billion from $6.1 billion to $6.4 billion previously, reflecting improved services performance and impact of lower equipment sales.

目前預計營業利潤將在 65 億美元至 68 億美元之間，較先前指引的中位數增加 2.5 億美元，利潤率逐年擴大。這項改善主要來自 CES，營業利潤目前預計將從先前的 61 億美元至 64 億美元增至 63 億美元至 65 億美元，反映出服務績效的改善和設備銷售下降的影響。

DPT profit guidance is unchanged and corporate cost and inter-company eliminations are now expected to be below $900 million from approximately $1 billion previously. Our expectations for interest expense and tax rate are unchanged, and we are raising our adjusted EPS guidance range to $3.95 to $4.20, up more than 50% year over year at the midpoint from higher profit growth.

DPT 利潤指引維持不變，公司成本和公司間抵銷現預計將從先前的約 10 億美元降至 9 億美元以下。我們對利息支出和稅率的預期保持不變，並且我們將調整後每股收益指引範圍提高至 3.95 美元至 4.20 美元，由於利潤增長較高，中點同比增長超過 50%。

We are also raising our free cash flow guidance to $5.3 billion to $5.6 billion, with above 100% conversion of net income, given profit growth. While we still expect to reduce working capital for the year, the improvement is expected to be lower, given the impact of supply chain challenges to inventory. Overall, free cash flow is up approximately $700 million year over year at the midpoint. All in, GE Aerospace is positioned for significant revenue, profit, and free cash flow growth with strong conversion in 2024. Larry, back to you.

鑑於利潤成長，我們也將自由現金流指引提高至 53 億至 56 億美元，淨利潤轉換率超過 100%。雖然我們仍預期今年會減少營運資金，但考慮到供應鏈挑戰對庫存的影響，預計改善幅度會較小。整體而言，自由現金流中點年增約 7 億美元。總而言之，GE 航空航太公司預計將在 2024 年實現收入、利潤和自由現金流的顯著增長，並實現強勁轉型。

Rahul, thanks. As we take flight as GE Aerospace, we have sustained competitive advantages with a tremendous value proposition. With the industry's largest and growing fleets or platforms are preferred by customers across the narrow body wide body and defense sectors, we're aiming to provide entry, industry-leading reliability and durability, prioritizing SQDC in that order.

拉胡爾，謝謝。當我們以 GE 航空航天的名義飛行時，我們擁有持續的競爭優勢和巨大的價值主張。由於業界最大且不斷成長的機隊或平台受到窄體寬體和國防部門客戶的青睞，我們的目標是提供入門級、業界領先的可靠性和耐用性，並優先考慮 SQDC。

This means delivering unmatched time on wing and faster turnaround times for our customers. With our deep domain expertise and engineering talent, commitment to innovation, and capacity to invest, we're poised to deliver breakthrough technologies in both commercial and defense.

這意味著為我們的客戶提供無與倫比的飛行時間和更快的周轉時間。憑藉我們深厚的領域專業知識和工程人才、對創新的承諾和投資能力，我們準備在商業和國防領域提供突破性技術。

And with flight deck as our foundation, we'll deliver for customers and create exceptional value for shareholders. All in, we expect to grow operating profit to approximately [$10 billion] in 2028 and generate free cash flow in excess of net income, creating compounding returns.

以駕駛艙為基礎，我們將為客戶提供服務，並為股東創造卓越的價值。總而言之，我們預計到 2028 年營業利潤將成長至約 [100 億美元]，並產生超過淨利潤的自由現金流，從而創造複合回報。

We're making meaningful progress to advance our strategic priorities in service of our customers, employees, and shareholders, while keeping an eye towards the future and paving the way with innovation for more sustainable flight. Now, Blaire, let's go to questions.

我們正在取得有意義的進展，以推進為客戶、員工和股東服務的策略重點，同時著眼於未來，透過創新為更永續的飛行鋪路。現在，布萊爾，讓我們開始提問。

Before we open the line, I'd ask everyone in the queue to consider your fellow analysts and ask one question, so we can get to as many people as possible. Liz, can you please open the line?

在我們開始排隊之前，我會要求隊列中的每個人考慮您的分析師同事並提出一個問題，這樣我們就可以接觸到盡可能多的人。 LZ，可以幫我開電話嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Robert Spingarn, Melius Research.

（操作員說明）Robert Spingarn，Melius Research。

Good afternoon. I don't know who wants to take this one, but I wanted to ask you, just given the slower ramp on the narrow-body programs as well as the durability issues on the geared turbofan, we've seen airlines extending the lives of older aircraft and engines, are we getting to the point where some of your CFM56 customers are talking about increasing the work scope of their third shop visits or maybe even doing a fourth shop visit?

午安.我不知道誰想接受這個，但我想問你，鑑於窄體項目的坡度較慢以及齒輪傳動渦扇發動機的耐用性問題，我們已經看到航空公司延長了飛機的使用壽命較舊的飛機和發動機，我們是否已經到了您的一些CFM56 客戶正在談論擴大其第三次到訪甚至第四次到訪的工作範圍的地步？

Well, Rob, I think that you really put your finger on one of the important underlying dynamics here, not only in the quarter. But as we think about the second half and even the next few years, the CFM56 is clearly still the workhorse of the industry, right?

好吧，羅布，我認為您確實指出了這裡重要的潛在動態之一，而不僅僅是在本季度。但當我們考慮下半年甚至未來幾年時，CFM56 顯然仍然是該行業的主力，對嗎？

I mean, we look at utilization in a time when people thought we might begin to see a little bit of a fade utilization year over year is consistent with the CFM56. Delighted to see the LEAP up 4 points from a share perspective. So overall, GE narrow-body powered propulsion is probably north of 70%. So I think the CFM is going to have a longer life in many fleets. And clearly that's going to help us in the aftermarket, both from a from a volume and from a scope perspective.

我的意思是，當我們考慮利用率時，人們認為我們可能會開始看到利用率逐年下降，這與 CFM56 一致。很高興看到從股價的角度來看，LEAP 上漲了 4 點。因此整體而言，GE 窄體動力推進系統的效率可能超過 70%。因此，我認為 CFM 在許多機隊中的使用壽命將會更長。顯然，無論是從數量還是範圍的角度來看，這都將有助於我們在售後市場的發展。

Rob, just to maybe add a little bit to what Larry said, just given the dynamics that he mentioned and you mentioned earlier, we are expecting that the peak shop visit that we had previously projected in 2025 and then you start to see the sequential downtick in '26, '27 is what we said at Investor Day.

Rob，我想對Larry 所說的內容做一些補充，考慮到他提到的以及您之前提到的動態，我們預計我們之前預計的2025 年商店訪問量將達到峰值，然後您將開始看到連續下降'26、'27 是我們在投資者日所說的。

As we sit here today, we do expect that, you know, shop visit is probably plateaued at that 25 level for maybe another couple of years and then start declining. So definitely, we are seeing that the platform is getting used and the shop visits will be higher for an extended period of time, and we will see third shop visits and that we're seeing that even with some of the leasers coming out and commenting that the leases are getting extended beyond 14, 15 years for another four or five years. So we will definitely see what you just said.

當我們今天坐在這裡時，我們確實預計，您知道，商店訪問量可能會在接下來的幾年內穩定在 25 的水平，然後開始下降。因此，可以肯定的是，我們看到該平台正在使用，並且在很長一段時間內商店訪問量將會更高，並且我們將看到第三次商店訪問，並且我們看到即使有一些租賃商出來發表評論租約將在 14 年、15 年以上再延長四到五年。所以我們一定會看到你剛才所說的話。

Myles Walton, Wolfe Research.

邁爾斯·沃爾頓，沃爾夫研究中心。

Hey, good morning. I apologize for the background noise. I'm actually here at the show. I was hoping, Larry you could comment on the 15 supplier sites and nine suppliers seem to the source of the bulk of the delays in parts and where that was last year and maybe just if you can bucket the types of products we're talking about at those 15 sites. Thanks.

嗨，早安。對於背景噪音，我深表歉意。我其實是來參加演出的。拉里，我希望你能對 15 個供應商網站發表評論，九個供應商似乎是大部分零件延誤的根源，去年的情況就是這樣，也許你能把我們正在討論的產品類型分類一下在這15 個地點。謝謝。

Myles, we can hear you loud and clear, we're not we're not too far away, I suspect. I think if you go back to April, what we said was three quarters of the challenge with respect to deliveries was really rooted in these 15 supplier sites, again, with nine different companies.

邁爾斯，我們可以清楚地聽到你的聲音，我懷疑我們不是太遠。我想如果你回到 4 月份，我們所說的四分之三的交付挑戰實際上源於這 15 個供應商站點，同樣涉及 9 個不同的公司。

And rather than finger point, our mindset was we're going to problem solve and we've gone in deeply again with flight deck to really try to understand these constraints at the core and the slide that you see in the deck, I think, is evidence that, that approach that collaborative problem-solving rather than finger-pointing is really yielding results.

我們的心態不是指責，而是要解決問題，我們再次深入研究駕駛艙，真正嘗試理解核心的這些限制以及你在駕駛艙中看到的幻燈片，我認為，有證據表明，這種協作解決問題而不是互相指責的方法確實產生了成果。

We didn't expect that we would see a blanket impact immediately, but to be able to point to two-thirds of those sites showing strong, nearly doubling of their sequential outputs, inputs to us, I think really tells us something, right, that this approach is going to have impact. Unfortunately, we didn't have all of the impact that we would have liked across those 15.

我們沒想到我們會立即看到全面的影響，但能夠指出這些站點中的三分之二顯示出強大的、幾乎翻倍的連續輸出，對我們的輸入，我認為確實告訴了我們一些東西，對吧，這種方法將會產生影響。不幸的是，我們並沒有在這 15 個項目中獲得我們所希望的全部影響力。

And we need everybody's ore in the water, if you will, we need everybody contributing, particularly with respect to new engine deliveries. But I think given what we have seen here in July, the way that we're working across different commodity classes shows that this approach is a better way to get more not only here in the third quarter or the second half, but as we think about what is a multiyear wrap, right, the airframers that we talk to here at Farnborough, certainly in the airlines as well, no one loves the fact that a new narrow-body order may not be delivered until '29 or '30.

我們需要每個人的礦石，如果你願意的話，我們需要每個人做出貢獻，特別是在新引擎的交付方面。但我認為，鑑於我們在7 月所看到的情況，我們在不同商品類別中開展工作的方式表明，這種方法是一種更好的方法，不僅可以在第三季或下半年獲得更多收益，而且正如我們所認為的那樣關於什麼是多年期合同，對吧，我們在範堡羅的飛機製造商，當然還有航空公司，沒有人喜歡這樣的事實：新的窄體訂單可能要到29 或30 年才能交付。

So it's all about the ramp. We've got years in front of us, thankfully, what a wonderful business challenge to have. But I really like the way our suppliers have met us here, embraced the tools, and we just need more time working in this fashion in order to have the fact that we, our airframer, and our airline customers, all desire.

所以這都是關於坡道的。值得慶幸的是，我們還有很多年的時間，這是多麼美妙的商業挑戰。但我真的很喜歡我們的供應商在這裡與我們會面、接受這些工具的方式，我們只是需要更多的時間以這種方式工作，以便實現我們、我們的機身製造商和我們的航空公司客戶所渴望的事實。

Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies.

希拉·卡哈奧格魯，杰弗里斯。

Hi, Good morning, Larry and Rahul, how are you?

嗨，早上好，拉里和拉胡爾，你們好嗎？

Good. Thank you, Sheila.

好的。謝謝你，希拉。

Maybe if I could ask about the CES margins, which were pretty awesome. So just looking at the LEAP deliveries in the quarter, Q1 versus Q2, Q2 had some less LEAP deliveries in the quarter. So about a $10 million profit swing depending upon your loss assumption there. So CES margins of 27% in Q2 versus Q3 -- versus Q1 of '23 implies that the core service margin improved about 1,000 basis points to 1,500 basis points depending on what you want to choose, so 25% to 35%-plus. So what drove that despite shop visits being better than spares? And how do we think about the second half progression?

也許我可以問一下 CES 的利潤率，那是相當棒的。因此，僅看本季的 LEAP 交付量，第一季與第二季相比，第二季的 LEAP 交付量有所減少。因此，大約 1000 萬美元的利潤波動取決於您的損失假設。因此，與23 年第一季相比，CES 第二季度的利潤率為27%，這意味著核心服務利潤率提高了約1,000 個基點到1,500 個基點，具體取決於您想要選擇的內容，因此提高了25% 到35% 以上。那麼，儘管到店參觀比備件更好，是什麼推動了這一趨勢呢？我們如何看待下半場的進展？

Yes, no Sheila, it was a good quarter for CES overall. OE volume was weak, as you pointed out, but the service revenue recovered really nicely. And the overall services growth was kind of in line with what we had projected for full year. So it kind of came in exactly what we were thinking.

是的，不希拉，整個 CES 季度表現不錯。正如您所指出的，原廠銷售量疲軟，但服務收入恢復得非常好。整體服務成長與我們全年的預期一致。所以它確實符合我們的想法。

And the drop-through from services was very strong. The shop visits skewed towards time and material work. And then the work scopes are heavier as well and that helped both revenue and the profit on those shop visits. This, along with pricing and customer mix helped the services profit growth. And in equipment, the engine shipments were lower, but within equipment, we also reduced our spare engine deliveries and higher investments. And that kind of offset the impact of the lower engine shipments. So overall, OE profit was more flattish than anything else.

服務的下降非常強勁。工作坊參觀偏向時間和材料工作。而且工作範圍也更重，這有助於增加商店訪問的收入和利潤。這與定價和客戶組合一起幫助服務利潤成長。在設備方面，引擎的出貨量有所下降，但在設備方面，我們也減少了備用引擎的交付量並增加了投資。這抵消了引擎出貨量下降的影響。因此總體而言，原廠利潤比其他任何方面都更加持平。

Now as we look at the trend in first half that gave us the confidence here to raise profit expectations for the full year by, call it, $150 million to $200 million at the midpoint of the guide. Now what's driving that are two things. One, the services growth that we just mentioned, all the things that we are seeing we projected that favorability to now flow through into the second half as well, both with work scopes and some of the customer mix being favorable.

現在，當我們審視上半年的趨勢時，我們有信心將全年利潤預期提高（按指南中點計算）1.5 億至 2 億美元。現在的驅動力有兩件事。第一，我們剛才提到的服務成長，我們所看到的所有事情，我們預計現在的好感度也會延續到下半年，工作範圍和一些客戶組合都是有利的。

And then we lowered our OE revenue output by, call it $600 million, $650 million at the midpoint of the guide, and that is helping profit. So that is where you see our CES profit up for the year, $150 million to $200 million. And the margins for CES at this level will be flattish for the year. And that is despite this being the first year of 9x shipments. So really, really happy with the way the CES business is coming along

然後我們將 OE 收入產出降低了 6 億美元，按指南的中點計算為 6.5 億美元，這有助於獲利。這就是我們今年 CES 利潤成長的地方，1.5 億至 2 億美元。 CES 在這一水平上的利潤率今年將持平。儘管今年是第一年出貨量增加了 9 倍，但情況還是如此。對 CES 業務的進展非常非常滿意

David Strauss, Barclays.

大衛‧史特勞斯，巴克萊銀行。

Thanks. Good morning, good afternoon. Larry, can you just maybe dig into this the lower LEAP shipments in in the quarter. I know you're talking about things progressing with these nine suppliers. But at the same time, obviously deliveries were way down the quarter, I would imagine they were 100, 125, shored up kind of your internal expectations. Can you kind of just square that things are getting better, but deliveries were a lot lower than expected? Thanks.

謝謝。早安，下午好。 Larry，您能否深入研究一下本季 LEAP 出貨量的下降。我知道您正在談論與這九家供應商合作的進展。但與此同時，顯然本季的交付量大幅下降，我想它們是 100 或 125，這在一定程度上增強了您的內部預期。您能否認為情況正在好轉，但交付量卻遠低於預期？謝謝。

David, I don't want to repeat what I said earlier. I do think one of the things to keep in mind is that there is a timing dynamic relative to when we receive various inputs and win in turn, we convert that into an engine that we can deliver, be it Airbus or Boeing, right.

大衛，我不想重複我之前說過的話。我確實認為需要記住的一件事是，當我們收到各種輸入並依次獲勝時，存在一個時間動態，我們將其轉換為我們可以交付的發動機，無論是空中巴士還是波音，對吧。

So April was challenging in a number of ways. We didn't have the recovery in May that I think we had hoped we might see underlying the quarter ago. Sequentially, it was the net improvement that I mentioned. And that has only continued to build here in July. We haven't seen that somewhat typically slow start to a quarter that I was concerned about.

因此，四月在許多方面都充滿挑戰。我們五月並沒有實現季度前所希望的復甦。接下來，就是我提到的淨改進。到了七月，這種情況才持續加劇。我們還沒有看到我所擔心的季度開局緩慢的情況。

So there's really nothing more I can say about why the new unit deliveries, LEAP included were disappointing. It is what it is, where we're focused is we think about the rest of the year is how do we deliver more and how do we deliver more reliably?

因此，對於為什麼包括 LEAP 在內的新設備交付令人失望，我實在無話可說。事情就是這樣，我們關注的重點是在今年剩餘的時間裡我們如何交付更多以及如何更可靠地交付？

You'll note that we are adjusting our outlook for LEAP deliveries this year. On a full year basis, we now think we will be somewhere between flat and up 5%, obviously lower than where we thought, but still showing a modest growth.

您會注意到，我們正在調整今年 LEAP 交付的預期。就全年而言，我們現在認為成長率將在持平和成長 5% 之間，明顯低於我們的預期，但仍呈現溫和成長。

And more importantly, I think given what we're doing with flight deck in the supply base, the expectations we have not only for more inputs, but in turn more outputs, positions us to be at a healthier, more stable, higher exit rate come the end of the year. That's where we're focused. That's what we're sharing with our customers work to do work I think this team knows how to do.

更重要的是，我認為考慮到我們在供應基地的飛行甲板上所做的事情，我們不僅期望更多的投入，而且反過來也期望更多的產出，使我們能夠處於更健康、更穩定、更高的退出率到了年底。這就是我們關注的焦點。這就是我們與客戶分享的工作，我認為這個團隊知道該怎麼做。

Seth Seifman, JPMorgan.

賽斯‧塞夫曼，摩根大通。

Yeah, thanks very much and good morning. I wondered just to kind of follow up on that last question and thinking about the progression on the delivery side, I think you need a pretty significant increase off of the Q2 equipment revenue level to get to the guide for the year. Is it going to be possible to make much progress in Q3? Should we expect much more significant progress in Q4? And any other color that you can provide about the sequential dynamics across the company?

是的，非常感謝，早安。我只是想跟進最後一個問題並考慮交付方面的進展，我認為您需要在第二季度的設備收入水平上有相當大的增長才能達到今年的指南。第三季有可能取得很大進展嗎？我們是否應該期待第四季有更重大的進展？您還可以提供有關整個公司連續動態的任何其他顏色嗎？

Just let me start by just kind of maybe talking a little bit about how we think the back half will shape up and Larry can add if there's anything more on the delivery side. Listen, overall, as you look at our first half to second half growth, first half, we've delivered about 9% growth, and that's kind of in line with what we are projecting for the full year.

首先讓我談談我們對後半部的看法，如果在投籃方面還有什麼需要補充的，拉里可以補充。聽著，總的來說，當你看看我們上半年到下半年的成長時，上半年我們實現了約 9% 的成長，這與我們對全年的預測是一致的。

So our year-over-year growth is going to look similar between first half and second half. The year-over-year growth will be higher in the fourth quarter as both services and OE ramp. So we'll see that now in terms of profit and drop-through, the margins will be higher in 3Q versus 4Q since the 9x shipment impact is going to be primarily in the fourth quarter and corporate expenses will be higher in the fourth quarter as well. So we expect the third quarter margins to be kind of flattish year-over-year since we had a strong 3Q last year.

因此，我們上半年和下半年的年增長將相似。隨著服務和原廠設備的增加，第四季的年成長將更高。因此，我們現在將看到，就利潤和直達率而言，第三季度的利潤率將高於第四季度，因為9 倍出貨量影響將主要發生在第四季度，而第四季度的企業費用將更高，因為出色地。因此，由於去年第三季表現強勁，我們預計第三季利潤率將與去年同期持平。

So now if you look at kind of getting to how 3Q looks operationally, we've had a better start to 3Q. I think Larry mentioned that in his prepared remarks, the number of engines we've shipped here in the third quarter, in the first month of the third quarter in July are significantly higher than what we delivered in the first three weeks in April. So we are seeing sequential progress.

因此，現在如果您了解第三季的營運情況，您會發現我們第三季有了一個更好的開始。我想拉里在他準備好的演講中提到，我們在第三季度、7月份第三季度第一個月在這裡發貨的發動機數量明顯高於我們在4月份的前三週交付的發動機數量。所以我們看到了連續的進展。

And then if you look at the material input and as we compare the material inputs through the first three weeks in July versus the first three weeks in April, even for these suppliers that have been constraining output in the second quarter, we've seen a significant improvement. So that's going to allow us to drive the sequential improvement here in the third quarter. So I think we are off to a good start more work to do here for sure, but July's been encouraging against it.

然後，如果你看一下材料輸入，當我們將7 月前三週的材料輸入與4 月前三週的材料輸入進行比較時，即使對於這些在第二季度一直限制產量的供應商來說，我們也看到了巨大的進步。因此，這將使我們能夠在第三季推動連續改進。因此，我認為我們已經有了一個良好的開端，當然還有更多工作要做，但 7 月一直在鼓勵反對這一點。

Gautam Khanna, Cowen.

高塔姆·卡納，考恩。

Yeah, hey, good morning and thank you, guys and good results. So I was curious just to follow-up, could you talk a little bit about how much inventory you're actually absorbing incrementally in the guidance? And maybe if you can speak to what your strategy is with the supply chain, given some folks are constrained, but some folks are probably ahead, given the lower lead projection relative to the start of the year and like are you in the process of slowing down some folks. If you could just talk about that inventory dynamic and what you're absorbing incrementally and any color you can provide. Thanks.

是的，嘿，早安，謝謝你們，夥伴們，祝你們取得好成績。所以我很好奇跟進，你能談談你在指南中實際增量吸收了多少庫存嗎？也許你可以談談你的供應鏈策略是什麼，考慮到有些人受到限制，但有些人可能領先，考慮到相對於年初的領先預測較低，而且你是否正處於放緩的過程中打倒一些人。如果您能談談庫存動態以及您正在逐步吸收的內容以及您可以提供的任何顏色。謝謝。

Well, maybe we'll just take those in reverse order. And I'll start. I think that we really aren't trying to slow down in a meaningful way. We're really trying the way I think about it is we're trying to make sure that we're calibrated with respect to what we need from everybody because as you point out, different folks are in different places as we think about the back half, as we think about '25, as we think about '26, I think part of why this has been so challenging and maybe even head-scratchingly so for some is that the industry was dialed down almost zero in the pandemic.

好吧，也許我們會以相反的順序來處理它們。我要開始了。我認為我們確實並沒有試圖以有意義的方式放慢速度。我們真的正在嘗試我認為的方式，我們正在努力確保我們根據每個人的需要進行校準，因為正如你所指出的，當我們考慮後面時，不同的人處於不同的位置一半，當我們想到'25 ，當我們想到'26，我認為這麼具有挑戰性，甚至對某些人來說甚至令人頭疼的部分原因是該行業在大流行中幾乎為零。

And what we don't want to do and the reason we do carry probably more inventory today well at year end than we would like is we don't want to turn down the folks that are performing well unduly as we calibrate the ramp rates with those that will in all likelihood paces.

我們不想做的事情以及我們今天在年底持有的庫存可能比我們想要的更多的原因是我們不想拒絕那些在我們校準爬坡率時表現不佳的人那些很可能會步伐的人。

So we've taken a view that in some instances, the inventory is in effect an investment with the supply base for ourselves to make sure that we've got a more predictable ramp. Remember, a lot of lean is rooted in flow and flow really is around availability. And to the extent that we've got some folks that are performing. We don't want to, if you will, penalize them as we think about all that we're going to need from them, not only over the next six months, but frankly, over the coming years.

因此，我們認為，在某些情況下，庫存實際上是對我們自己的供應基礎的投資，以確保我們獲得更可預測的成長。請記住，許多精實都植根於流程，而流程實際上是圍繞著可用性進行的。在某種程度上，我們有一些人正在表演。如果你願意的話，我們不想懲罰他們，因為我們考慮到我們需要他們提供的一切，不僅是在接下來的六個月裡，而且坦白說，在未來的幾年裡。

And Gautam you'll see that in our queue, I think you're spot on, we've seen significant inventory growth here in the first half of the year, close to $1.2 billion of inventory growth, which is call it, $0.5 billion higher than what we grew in the first half of last year, so significant headwind here.

Gautam，你會在我們的隊列中看到，我想你是對的，我們在今年上半年看到了庫存的顯著增長，庫存增長接近 12 億美元，也就是 5 億美元高於去年上半年的增長，因此這裡的阻力很大。

Now with the improvement in output are that we are projecting here for the second half of the year, we do think that while inventory will go grow in the second half of the year, obviously, the pace of growth will slow down significantly here and then it won't be as much of a headwind as it was last year in the second half of the year. So it has been a challenge.

現在，隨著我們預計下半年產量將有所改善，我們確實認為，雖然下半年庫存將會成長，但顯然，成長速度將在此時顯著放緩下半年的逆風不會像去年那麼大。所以這是一個挑戰。

But again, as Larry said, that's something we've been trying to manage and manage it as appropriately as we can. But the good news is despite the $1.2 billion of inventory growth in the first half of the year, we still had 120% conversion. So strong cash growth, cash was up about $1 billion year over year in the first half, so we kind of absorbed it, we managed it, and try do better in the second half.

但正如拉里所說，我們一直在努力管理並盡可能適當地管理它。但好消息是，儘管上半年庫存增加了 12 億美元，但我們的轉換率仍然達到 120%。現金成長如此強勁，上半年現金年增約 10 億美元，所以我們吸收了它，我們管理了它，並努力在下半年做得更好。

Scott Deuschle, Deutsche Bank.

史考特‧德施勒，德意志銀行。

Hey, good afternoon. Hey, Larry, not to be the dead horse, but just following-up on Myles' earlier question, I was wondering if you could offer some more detail on those, I guess six or so remaining supplier sites that are the key bottlenecks at this point. Basically, trying to understand if we're down to the investment castings and forgings suppliers at this point or if it's a broader set of bottlenecks and I appreciate not wanting to pointing fingers, but just trying to get a sense for whether there's something in common undergirding this remaining set of suppliers. Thanks.

嘿，下午好。嘿，拉里，不要成為死馬，只是跟進邁爾斯之前的問題，我想知道你是否可以提供更多關於這些的細節，我猜剩下六個左右的供應商站點是這個問題的關鍵瓶頸觀點。基本上，試圖了解我們目前是否依賴熔模鑄件和鍛件供應商，或者是否存在更廣泛的瓶頸，我很欣賞不想互相指責，而只是試圖了解是否存在共同點鞏固剩下的這組供應商。謝謝。

I think you've heard me pretty clearly, I appreciate that. I think the common denominator is, frankly, we all need to do better and we need to be more collaborative and fully in problem-solving mode. That's the headset we have at GE Aerospace. I'm convinced while that takes different forms of different suppliers, that is where every one of those 9 suppliers across those 15 sites are. Some made more progress than others, but it's a long race, right? This was not a 90-day sprint. This is a marathon.

我想你已經聽得很清楚了，我很感激。坦白說，我認為共同點是我們都需要做得更好，我們需要更有協作並充分解決問題。這就是我們在 GE 航空航太公司擁有的耳機。我確信，雖然這需要不同供應商的不同形式，但這就是這 15 個地點的 9 家供應商中的每一位。有些人比其他人取得了更多進步，但這是一場漫長的比賽，對嗎？這不是 90 天的衝刺。這是一場馬拉松。

And regardless of where folks are from a from a commodity category perspective, from a geography perspective, publicly held, privately held, it just doesn't matter, right. We've got to get the teams there. We got to go deep with getting into the granular operational detail to solve those problems, unlock those constraints, increase capacity, raise yields, much as I think we've been doing, picked up the pace a bit here, I think in the second quarter and just need to do a lot more of that broadly in the second half.

無論人們從商品類別的角度來看，從地理的角度來看，無論是公有的還是私有的，這都不重要，對吧。我們必須讓團隊到達那裡。我們必須深入研究細粒度的營運細節，以解決這些問題，解除這些限制，增加產能，提高產量，就像我認為我們一直在做的那樣，我認為在第二個階段，我們在這裡加快了步伐季度，只需要在下半年做更多的事情。

Robert Stallard, Vertical Research.

羅伯特·斯塔拉德，垂直研究。

Thanks very much. Good afternoon. Just following on from your earlier comments, Larry, and your confidence in GE's ability to deliver new engines in the second half, what's your confidence in the relative forecasts of the airframers and also their broader supply chain also catching up and delivering the parts.

非常感謝。午安.拉里，繼您之前的評論以及您對通用電氣下半年交付新發動機的能力的信心之後，您對機身製造商的相對預測以及他們更廣泛的供應鏈也趕上並交付零件的信心如何。

Well, I think we'll leave to our customers' commentary on everything they're managing. We're focused on what we can manage, right. And I think that the updated guide here, the color around LEAP specifically is certainly that of high-confidence, it wouldn't come out of our miles. It wouldn't be in our prepared remarks otherwise.

好吧，我想我們將讓客戶對他們管理的一切進行評論。我們專注於我們能夠管理的事情，對吧。我認為這裡更新的指南，尤其是 LEAP 周圍的顏色肯定是高度可信的，它不會超出我們的里程。否則就不會出現在我們準備好的發言中。

But again, work to do work, work I think we're encouraged by with respect to the second quarter impact start to July as well. But we've got a lot of work in front of us. We've got many days to do that work. That's where this team is focused completely, I can assure you.

但再說一次，工作繼續工作，我認為我們對從 7 月開始的第二季影響感到鼓舞。但我們面前還有很多工作要做。我們有很多天的時間來完成這項工作。我可以向你保證，這就是這個團隊完全專注的地方。

Noah Poponak, Goldman Sachs.

諾亞·波波納克，高盛。

Hey, good morning, everyone. You show on slide 17 that the CES services orders are growing much faster than revenue and the absolute dollar levels are much higher. I guess, eventually (technical difficulty) overall aftermarket has to normalize as we fully recover air travel growth. What's behind that? How much of that is the LEAP and does that suggest that CES services growth can actually accelerate next year versus this year?

嘿，大家早安。您在投影片 17 中顯示，CES 服務訂單的成長速度遠遠快於收入的成長速度，而且絕對美元水準也高得多。我想，隨著我們完全恢復航空旅行的成長，最終（技術難度）整個售後市場必須正常化。這背後是什麼？其中有多少是 LEAP 的，這是否表明 CES 服務的成長實際上可以比今年加速？

No, no, you're right. I mean we had a good second quarter on orders, we had a good first half. I mean services orders were kind of, as you said, mid-30s for the for the second quarter, up 30% or so for the first half, strong book-to-bill here and in the first half of the year on top of a good book-to-bill we saw in 2023.

不，不，你是對的。我的意思是，我們第二季的訂單表現不錯，上半年也表現不錯。我的意思是，正如您所說，第二季度的服務訂單約為 30 多歲，上半年增長了 30% 左右，這里和上半年的訂單出貨量強勁我們在2023 年看到了良好的訂單出貨量。

So the momentum is definitely there on the services side. And as you look at the back half of the year, we are expecting the services growth to be a little bit higher in the second half than in the first half, right, both on the shop visits and spare parts on a year-over-year basis.

因此，服務方面肯定存在動力。回顧今年下半年，我們預計下半年的服務成長將比上半年略高一些，對吧，無論是在商店訪問還是在備件方面都比上年同期-年為基礎。

So we delivered 9% in total shop visit growth in the first half of the year. And if you look at our low to mid-teens guidance on shop visits, that would imply that shop visits will be closer to high-teens in the second half of the year on a year-over-year basis. So that's what we are projecting.

因此，我們上半年的實體店總客流量成長了 9%。如果你看一下我們對商店訪問量的指導，這將意味著今年下半年的商店訪問量將與去年同期相比更接近於高十幾歲。這就是我們的預測。

But overall it is in mid-teens services growth and that is consistent with what we think the future years will look like. I think that's what we had -- when we look at our 2025 outlook, you know, we were projecting continued strong services growth, so it's good to see the strong orders growth, good to see, as Larry said earlier, LEAP gaining share on the overall air traffic departure side as well.

但總體而言，服務業的成長處於十幾歲左右，這與我們對未來幾年的預期是一致的。我認為這就是我們所擁有的——當我們展望2025 年的前景時，你知道，我們預計服務將持續強勁增長，因此很高興看到強勁的訂單增長，很高興看到，正如拉里早些時候所說，LEAP 的份額不斷增加整體空中交通出發面也是如此。

Gavin Parsons, UBS.

加文·帕森斯，瑞銀集團。

Thanks, good morning. I mean, I guess to Rob's question earlier on your extending life of older engines clearly strong demand for both growth and new aircraft, but there's been a couple of airline profit warnings last week or two. So just wanted to ask if you've had any early indications from your discussions with customers, whether it be relating to fleet planning, sensitivity to pricing, or any other changes. Thanks.

謝謝，早安。我的意思是，我想對於羅布早些時候提出的關於延長舊發動機壽命的問題，顯然對增長和新飛機的需求強勁，但上週或兩周有幾家航空公司發出盈利預警。所以我想問一下，您是否從與客戶的討論中得到了任何早期跡象，無論是與車隊規劃、對定價的敏感性還是任何其他變化有關。謝謝。

Yeah, I mean, if you would imagine, we follow all that pretty closely both well in the US, here in Europe, globally. We really have not seen any effect on our business. And to Rahul's comments a moment ago, we'll remain watchful, but don't anticipate that.

是的，我的意思是，如果你能想像的話，我們在美國、歐洲和全球都非常密切地關注著這一切。我們確實沒有看到對我們的業務有任何影響。對於拉胡爾剛才的評論，我們將保持警惕，但不要預期這一點。

Again, I think to the to the earlier question with services orders up 36% in CES in the second quarter. That's the way our customers are speaking to us. I look at where we are here in the third quarter, just in terms of how much of the spares activity we have in backlog. I think it's in the 90% range at this point, so well-positioned very early here in the quarter.

我再次回答先前的問題，第二季 CES 上的服務訂單增加了 36%。這就是我們的客戶與我們交談的方式。我看看我們第三季的情況，僅從我們有多少備件活動積壓來看。我認為目前處於 90% 的範圍內，因此在本季初期處於有利位置。

And again, I would just also point to the utilization that we see on the CFM56 still strong, no real change this year and the uptake -- the upshot of the LEAP taking 4 points of market share. So the GE-powered narrow-body activity remained strong.

再次，我還要指出我們在 CFM56 上看到的利用率仍然強勁，今年沒有真正的變化以及採用率 - LEAP 佔據了 4 個百分點的市場份額。因此，由通用電氣提供動力的窄體飛機活動仍然強勁。

You just take up the comments that we're out here in Europe yesterday, it seemed to be more pricing-oriented than anything else. So we'll keep a weather eye out. But right now, our challenge, our struggle is to keep up with this exceptionally strong demand, both in the aftermarket and again with new make.

您剛剛注意到我們昨天在歐洲的評論，它似乎比其他任何事情都更以定價為導向。所以我們會密切注意天氣狀況。但現在，我們的挑戰、我們的奮鬥是跟上這種異常強勁的需求，無論是在售後市場還是在新產品上。

Jason Gursky, Citi.

賈森古爾斯基，花旗銀行。

Hey, good morning, everybody. Larry, I was wondering if you could just spend a few more minutes on the rise and maybe provide an update on some development milestones there, how the customer conversations are going at this point. You mentioned that you're showcasing the engine there at Farnborough. I'm just kind of curious what you think customer acceptance is shaping up to look like at this point.

嘿，大家早安。拉里（Larry），我想知道您是否可以再花幾分鐘來介紹上升趨勢，並提供一些開發里程碑的最新信息，以及目前客戶對話的進展情況。您提到您正在範堡羅展示這具引擎。我只是有點好奇你認為目前客戶的接受度會是什麼樣子。

Jason, I would say that customer interest seems to only build with the passage of time. This is now the third Air Show in a row that I've attended with the RISE engine, the open fan engine front and center here. Obviously, when we talk about RISE, we're really talking about an umbrella of different technology programs, not only the open fan, but also our compact core work, our hybrid electric activity, and everything we're doing on SAF.

傑森，我想說，客戶的興趣似乎只會隨著時間的推移而增加。這是我連續第三次帶著 RISE 發動機參加航展，這裡的開式風扇發動機位於前面和中間。顯然，當我們談論RISE 時，我們實際上談論的是一系列不同的技術計劃，不僅包括開放式風扇，還包括我們的緊湊型核心工作、我們的混合動力電動活動以及我們在SAF 上所做的一切。

But with respect to open fan, I think what we've been sharing with people is that we had a very good first ingestion test with the open fan blade in the first quarter. We are starting our second endurance campaign or test with the high-pressure turbine airfoils. And there's been a lot of work with respect to the hybrid electric elements of that architecture, work that, as you may know, we do with NASA.

但就開放式風扇而言，我認為我們一直與人們分享的是，我們在第一季對開放式風扇葉片進行了非常好的首次吸入測試。我們正在開始使用高壓渦輪機翼進行第二次耐力活動或測試。關於該架構的混合電動元件，我們已經做了很多工作，正如您可能知道的那樣，我們與 NASA 合作。

I mentioned, I think earlier, the wind tunnel testing that we've done here in Europe in conjunction with Airbus. So there, I think over 200 -- I think maybe it's 250 component level tests, module level tests that we have behind us. This is still a technology development effort, make no mistake about it, right.

我之前提到過，我們在歐洲與空中巴士公司合作進行了風洞測試。因此，我認為我們背後有超過 200 個——我想可能是 250 個組件級測試、模組級測試。毫無疑問，這仍然是一項技術開發工作，對吧。

We've got a long way to go, but what's interesting, particularly here in Europe, virtually every airline CEO that I talk to starts the conversation with sustainability and are very keen to get our views on SAF compatibility, but also ahead of SAF capacity being available at scale, what are we going to do to enable the next generation of narrow-bodies?

我們還有很長的路要走，但有趣的是，特別是在歐洲，幾乎所有與我交談過的航空公司執行長都開始談論永續發展，並且非常渴望了解我們對SAF 相容性的看法，但也領先SAF 的容量既然已經大規模可用，我們將如何實現下一代窄體飛機？

And we go hard and fast to RISE, talk about the progress that we're making with open fan. And I think that is a story that continues to build enthusiasm and support because we know that the ultimate target, that 20% step-up in propulsive efficiency in emissions reduction really is the future of flight.

我們努力快速地走向RISE，與開放粉絲談論我們正在取得的進展。我認為這個故事會繼續激發熱情和支持，因為我們知道最終目標，即減排推進效率提高 20% 確實是飛行的未來。

Liz, we have time for one last question.

麗茲，我們還有時間回答最後一個問題。

Matt Akers, Wells Fargo.

馬特·埃克斯，富國銀行。

Hi, good morning, guys. Thanks for the question. I wanted to ask what are your kind of your latest thoughts on LEAP kind of breakeven timing, just given volumes are running a little bit lower than we thought and sounds like you're deploying a lot of resources to work through some of these supplier issue? So just curious if that timing has shifted at all.

嗨，早上好，夥計們。謝謝你的提問。我想問一下您對 LEAP 盈虧平衡時機的最新想法是什麼，只是考慮到銷量比我們想像的要低一些，而且聽起來您正在部署大量資源來解決其中一些供應商問題？所以只是好奇這個時間是否已經改變了。

Yeah, Matt. Timing has not shifted. So we expected LEAP to be profitable here in 2024 and a program to be breakeven in 2025. And LEAP services, in fact, is shaping up a little bit better than what we originally thought as we started the year. And we mentioned that in our prepared remarks.

是的，馬特。時間並沒有改變。因此，我們預計 LEAP 將在 2024 年實現盈利，並在 2025 年實現盈虧平衡。我們在準備好的發言中提到了這一點。

So that's how the overall program is shaping up. We're making the progress on durability that we were expecting. The LEAP is tracking better than CFM56 at this stage of the lifecycle. We are expecting LEAP performance to be in line with CFM56, our performance on the A320s by the end of the year.

這就是整個計劃的形成過程。我們在耐用性方面取得了預期的進展。在生命週期的這個階段，LEAP 的追蹤效果比 CFM56 更好。我們預計 LEAP 效能到今年底將與 CFM56（我們在 A320 上的效能）保持一致。

So that is obviously a huge milestone, given all the improvements we've been driving, the HPT blade was the last thing that's in and we expect that to happen here in the fourth quarter. We've completed more than 3,500 tests on that -- 3,500 hours of testing on that. So that's going really well. So all in, I think LEAP is progressing exactly the way we would have liked, services is striking a little bit better, program should breakeven next year.

因此，這顯然是一個巨大的里程碑，考慮到我們一直在推動的所有改進，HPT 刀片是最後出現的東西，我們預計這將在第四季度發生。我們已經完成了超過 3,500 項測試——長達 3,500 小時的測試。所以一切進展順利。總而言之，我認為 LEAP 的進展完全符合我們希望的方式，服務明顯好一些，明年計畫應該會達到收支平衡。

Larry, any final comments.

拉里，最後的意見。

Blaire, thank you. I think just to close, the GE Aerospace team is going to stay grounded in our responsibility that we share to live the purpose to invent the future flight, to lift people up, and bring them home safely. So we really appreciate your time today and of course, your interest in GE Aerospace.

布萊爾，謝謝你。我想最後，GE 航太團隊將堅定不移地履行我們共同的責任，實現發明未來飛行、提升人們安全並帶他們安全回家的目標。我們非常感謝您今天抽出時間，當然也感謝您對 GE 航空航太公司的興趣。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝你們，女士們、先生們。今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。