奇異 (GE) 2024 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the GE Aerospace third-quarter 2024 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) My name is Liz and I will be your conference coordinator today. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today's conference, Blaire Shoor from the GE Aerospace Investor Relations team. Please proceed.

女士們、先生們，美好的一天，歡迎參加 GE 航空航太公司 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）我叫 Liz，今天我將擔任您的會議協調員。 （操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。現在，我想將議程移交給今天會議的主持人、來自 GE 航空航天投資者關係團隊的 Blaire Shoor。請繼續。

Thanks, Liz. Welcome to GE Aerospace's third-quarter 2024 earnings call. I'm joined by Chairman and CEO, Larry Culp; and CFO, Rahul Ghai. Many of the statements we're making are forward-looking and based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. As described in our SEC filings and website, those elements may change as the world changes. Now, over to Larry.

謝謝，莉茲。歡迎參加 GE 航空航太公司 2024 年第三季財報電話會議。董事長兼執行長 Larry Culp 也加入了我的行列。和首席財務官拉胡爾·蓋伊。我們所做的許多聲明都是前瞻性的，並且基於我們對世界和我們今天所看到的業務的最佳看法。正如我們在 SEC 文件和網站中所述，這些要素可能會隨著世界的變化而變化。現在，輪到拉里了。

Blaire, thank you, and good morning. We're pleased to be joining you from GE Aerospace's headquarters in Evendale, Ohio. For more than a century, GE Aerospace employees have been inventing the future of flight, lifting people up, and bringing them home safely. Those last four words, bringing them home safely, are an incredible responsibility and will always be our top priority and core to our culture.

布萊爾，謝謝你，早安。我們很高興能在俄亥俄州埃文代爾的 GE 航空航天公司總部與您會面。一個多世紀以來，GE 航空航太公司的員工一直在發明飛行的未來，提升人們的飛行能力，並將他們安全地帶回家。最後四個字，讓他們安全回家，是一項令人難以置信的責任，也將永遠是我們的首要任務和我們文化的核心。

We're motivated each day by our purpose and guided by FLIGHT DECK, our proprietary lean operating model. Our team is dedicated to safety, quality, delivery, and cost in that order. That focus will enable us to meet the significant demand of today while building the innovative solutions of tomorrow. It is because of the shared commitment of our 52,000 employees around the world that we have the privilege to continue to advance flight for today, tomorrow, and the future.

我們每天都以我們的目標為動力，並以我們專有的精益營運模式 FLIGHT DECK 為指導。我們的團隊致力於安全、品質、交付和成本。這一重點將使我們能夠滿足當今的巨大需求，同時建立未來的創新解決方案。正是由於我們全球 52,000 名員工的共同承諾，我們才有幸繼續推動今天、明天和未來的飛行發展。

Turning to our third-quarter performance, orders were up 28%, driven by robust demand, and we delivered strong earnings and cash. Revenue was up 6% from growth in services and equipment, while operating profit was up 14%, and adjusted EPS up 25%. Free cash flow was $1.8 billion, with conversion of more than 140%.

談到我們第三季的業績，在強勁需求的推動下，訂單成長了 28%，我們實現了強勁的利潤和現金。由於服務和設備的成長，收入成長了 6%，營業利潤成長了 14%，調整後每股盈餘成長了 25%。自由現金流為 18 億美元，轉換率超過 140%。

In commercial engines & services, or CES, orders were up 29%, with more than 20% growth in both services and equipment. Our recent wins in widebodies and narrowbodies build on our considerable backlog of $149 billion, greater than 90% of which is in services. Services revenue grew 10% and supported total operating profit, which was up 16% year over year.

在商用引擎和服務 (CES) 領域，訂單成長了 29%，其中服務和設備訂單成長超過 20%。我們最近在寬體機和窄體機方面取得的勝利建立在我們 1,490 億美元的大量積壓訂單之上，其中 90% 以上用於服務領域。服務收入成長 10%，支撐總營業利潤年增 16%。

Our priority continues to be servicing and growing the industry's most extensive commercial installed base. We made progress with the step-up in OE deliveries quarter over quarter, with higher spare part sales to support our external MRO network while also expanding aftermarket capacity. Progress to be sure, but more work lies ahead.

我們的首要任務仍然是服務和發展業界最廣泛的商業安裝基礎。我們在原設備交付量逐季增加方面取得了進展，備件銷售量增加以支持我們的外部 MRO 網絡，同時也擴大了售後市場產能。進步是肯定的，但還有更多的工作要做。

In defense & propulsion technologies, or DPT, orders increased 19%, while profit declined. Engine deliveries were up sequentially, but down year over year. We're focused on improving delivery of our leading defense programs while developing mission-critical technology for the future.

在國防與推進技術 (DPT) 領域，訂單成長 19%，但利潤下降。引擎交付量環比增長，但同比下降。我們專注於改善領先國防專案的交付，同時開發面向未來的關鍵任務技術。

Many thanks to our team for their work and dedication this quarter, and a specific thank you this morning goes out to our teams impacted by hurricanes Helene and Milton. You worked around the clock to support each other and minimize the impact to our customers. You are GE Aerospace at its finest.

非常感謝我們的團隊本季的工作和奉獻精神，今天早上特別感謝我們受颶風海倫和米爾頓影響的團隊。你們日以繼夜地工作，互相支持，盡量減少對我們客戶的影響。您是最優秀的 GE 航空航太公司。

Given the strength of our results, growing both profit and cash more than $1 billion year to date, combined with our fourth-quarter expectations, we're raising our full-year guidance. We also continue to coordinate closely with Boeing and are committed to supporting them as they navigate their current dynamics.

鑑於我們的業績強勁，今年迄今利潤和現金成長超過 10 億美元，結合我們第四季度的預期，我們正在提高全年指引。我們也持續與波音公司密切合作，並致力於支持他們應對當前的動態。

Moving to slide 5, demand for our services and products remains robust, highlighted by departures up high single digits year to date and LEAP share of global narrowbody departures increasing over 20%. We're taking steps with our suppliers to increase inputs and within our own operations to expand capacity, ensuring we're positioned to meet this historic demand.

轉向幻燈片 5，對我們的服務和產品的需求仍然強勁，今年迄今為止，出發航班數量增長了高個位數，而 LEAP 在全球窄體飛機出發航班中的份額增長了 20% 以上。我們正在與供應商一起採取措施增加投入，並在我們自己的營運範圍內擴大產能，確保我們能夠滿足這一歷史性需求。

We're making progress with engine output increasing 22% quarter over quarter, including commercial up 25% and defense up 8%. We also grew spare parts sales sequentially, supporting shop visits completed by our third-party network.

我們正在取得進展，發動機產量環比增長 22%，其中商業增長 25%，國防增長 8%。我們還連續增加了備件銷售，支援我們的第三方網路完成的商店訪問。

As we've discussed over the last nine months, we're using FLIGHT DECK to unlock key constraints, increased material inputs, and drive sustainable improvements. We're working hand in hand with suppliers, and we're grateful for their strengthening partnerships. As a result of that work, a key subset of priority supplier sites increased output 18% in the third quarter, supporting our deliveries.

正如我們在過去九個月中討論的那樣，我們正在使用 FLIGHT DECK 來解鎖關鍵限制、增加材料投入並推動永續改進。我們正在與供應商攜手合作，我們感謝他們加強合作關係。這項工作的結果是，優先供應商站點的關鍵子集在第三季產量增加了 18%，支持了我們的交付。

As one example, a joint Kaizen with one supplier in the second quarter led to a double-digit improvement in material receipts in the third quarter, demonstrating that these efforts are yielding results. We expect inputs to increase again in the fourth quarter, supporting a sequential step-up in output.

舉個例子，第二季與一家供應商共同實施的 Kaizen 導致第三季的材料收入實現了兩位數的改善，這表明這些努力正在取得成果。我們預計第四季投入將再次增加，支持產出環比上升。

We're also making progress on LEAP durability with the 1A durability kit, including our upgraded HPT blade, and we're expecting it to be certified in the coming weeks. The new HPT blade is easier to manufacture, which will also help increase output. Combined with the three durability enhancements that are currently performing well in the field, we expect this will give LEAP a 2.5 times improvement in time on wing, in line with current CFM56 levels.

我們還透過 1A 耐用性套件（包括升級的 HPT 刀片）在 LEAP 耐用性方面取得了進展，我們預計它將在未來幾週內獲得認證。新型 HPT 刀片更容易製造，這也將有助於提高產量。結合目前在該領域表現良好的三個耐久性增強功能，我們預計這將使 LEAP 在機翼時間上提高 2.5 倍，與目前的 CFM56 水平一致。

With LEAP's fleet size projected to double by 2030, we're expanding capacity to support aftermarket growth. We're preparing for this growth in three complementary ways to improve shop visit output and reduce turnaround times.

到 2030 年，LEAP 的車隊規模預計將增加一倍，我們正在擴大產能以支持售後市場的成長。我們正在透過三種互補的方式為這種增長做好準備，以提高商店訪問量並減少週轉時間。

First, we're leveraging FLIGHT DECK to eliminate waste, to increase capacity, and reduce TAT. At our MRO facility in Selma, Brazil, we use value stream mapping and problem solving to reduce LEAP test cycle time, a key constraint in shop visit output. We identified waste and improved standard work, reducing lead times there by nearly 50%. Actions like this enabled over 20% more LEAP shop visits in the third quarter year over year.

首先，我們利用 FLIGHT DECK 來消除浪費、增加容量並減少 TAT。在巴西塞爾瑪的 MRO 工廠，我們使用價值流程圖和問題解決來減少 LEAP 測試週期時間，這是車間存取輸出的關鍵限制。我們發現了浪費並改進了工作標準，將交貨時間縮短了近 50%。此類行動使第三季 LEAP 商店的訪問量比去年同期增加了 20% 以上。

Second, we're expanding internal capacity. We're investing $1 billion in MRO over the next five years to create that capacity, add enhanced inspection techniques, and expand repair capabilities. We've partnered with Lufthansa Technik to add a dedicated LEAP MRO shop in Poland and we'll induct the first engine there here in the fourth quarter.

其次，我們正在擴大內部產能。我們將在未來五年內投資 10 億美元用於 MRO，以打造這種能力、增強檢查技術並擴大維修能力。我們與 Lufthansa Technik 合作，在波蘭增設了一家專門的 LEAP MRO 車間，我們將在第四季度在這裡引進第一台發動機。

And third, we're developing our third-party network, which provides customers flexibility and competitive options to ensure the best cost of ownership. Third-party MROs inducted a record number of LEAP shop visits in the third quarter. We're also pleased that Akasa Airlines recently announced the selection of ST Engineering to provide exclusive performance restoration shop visits for their fleet over the next 15 years.

第三，我們正在開發第三方網絡，為客戶提供靈活性和有競爭力的選擇，以確保最佳的擁有成本。第三季度，第三方 MRO 的 LEAP 商店訪問量創歷史新高。我們也很高興 Akasa 航空公司最近宣布選擇 ST Engineering 在未來 15 年內為其機隊提供獨家性能恢復車間訪問服務。

While there's more work to do, we're focused on servicing and delivering our engines faster without compromising safety and quality. I'm confident our actions will enable us to increase output meaningfully into the fourth quarter and 2025. We're also growing our installed base with airlines and defense customers expanding and modernizing their fleets with our engines on their wing.

雖然還有更多工作要做，但我們專注於在不影響安全和品質的情況下更快地維修和交付我們的引擎。我相信，我們的行動將使我們能夠在第四季度和 2025 年大幅增加產量。

During the quarter, we won multiple services contracts for our customers' growing fleets. Avalon will add 75 new LEAP-1A-powered A320 aircraft to their existing fleet of over 300 CFM-powered aircraft. In widebodies, we secured commitments from EVA Air for GEnx engines and Qatar Airways or GE9X engines.

本季度，我們為客戶不斷成長的機隊贏得了多項服務合約。 Avalon 將在其現有超過 300 架 CFM 動力飛機的機隊中增加 75 架新型 LEAP-1A 動力 A320 飛機。在寬體飛機方面，我們獲得了長榮航空的 GEnx 發動機和卡達航空或 GE9X 發動機的承諾。

In defense, the Polish Ministry of National Defense will add over 200 of our T700 engines to power their anticipated acquisition of 96 Boeing Apache Guardian helicopters. We were also selected to overhaul and upgrade the GEnx 2B engines powering the US Air Force's SAOC, the Survivable Airborne Operations Center, Boeing 747-8.

在國防方面，波蘭國防部將添加 200 多台我們的 T700 發動機，為他們預期採購的 96 架波音阿帕契衛士直升機提供動力。我們還被選中對為美國空軍 SAOC、生存機載作戰中心、波音 747-8 提供動力的 GEnx 2B 發動機進行檢修和升級。

Turning to the future, RISE accelerates the development of new technologies that will pave the way for the next generation of aircraft and a more sustainable future. We recently began planning for dust ingestion tests on the open fan design earlier than ever before. This reflects key durability learnings from our engines operating in higher temperature environments. We're also advancing a new era of turboprop technology with a catalyst engine, completing engine level testing and certification expected in the coming months.

展望未來，RISE 加速新技術的開發，為下一代飛機和更永續的未來鋪路。我們最近比以往更早開始計劃對開放式風扇設計進行灰塵吸入測試。這反映了我們在較高溫度環境下運行的引擎的關鍵耐用性經驗。我們也利用催化劑發動機推進渦輪螺旋槳技術的新時代，預計在未來幾個月內完成發動機級別的測試和認證。

Our defense products remain in demand for critical platforms globally. Our T901 engine is key to the modernization of Black Hawk and Apaches, and has been progressing towards the next milestone of power-on and ground runs. The maturity of our digital backbone for Bell's future long range of salt aircraft was critical for the US Army to pass Milestone B and enter the next phase of development.

全球關鍵平台仍然需要我們的國防產品。我們的 T901 引擎是黑鷹和阿帕契現代化的關鍵，並且一直在邁向下一個開機和地面運行的里程碑。貝爾未來遠程鹽飛機的數位主幹網的成熟度對於美國陸軍通過里程碑 B 並進入下一階段的開發至關重要。

We're also delivering continued success with our advanced technologies. Our XA100 engine completed a fourth round of testing and we are nearing completion of the detailed design for the US Air Force's NGAP program. Stepping back, our path forward is clear and we're confident we'll meet our customers' expectations today while developing the technologies of the future. Rahul, over to you.

我們也利用先進技術不斷取得成功。我們的 XA100 引擎已完成第四輪測試，我們即將完成美國空軍 NGAP 計畫的詳細設計。退一步來說，我們前進的道路是明確的，我們有信心在開發未來技術的同時滿足客戶今天的期望。拉胡爾，交給你了。

Thank you, Larry, and good morning, everyone. GE Aerospace delivered another strong quarter with double-digit orders and profit growth, improving delivery, and over 140% free cash flow conversion. Revenue was up 6% with growth in both segments. Services growth, combined with price, more than offset the impact of lower engine shipments year over year.

謝謝拉里，大家早安。 GE 航空航太公司再次實現了強勁的季度業績，訂單和利潤實現了兩位數的成長，交付情況有所改善，自由現金流轉換率超過 140%。隨著這兩個領域的成長，收入成長了 6%。服務成長加上價格，足以抵銷引擎出貨量年減的影響。

Operating profit was $1.8 billion, up 14%. Services volume, favorable mix, and price were partially offset by higher inflation and investments. Operating margins expanded 150 basis points to 20.3%. Adjusted EPS was $1.15, up 25% from increased operating profit and the benefit of preferred equity redemption. Free cash flow was $1.8 billion, up 5% from higher earnings. Working capital was roughly a $600 million use. Billings on higher sequential engine deliveries was partially offset with favorable AD&A.

營業利潤為 18 億美元，成長 14%。服務量、有利的組合和價格被較高的通貨膨脹和投資部分抵消。營業利益率擴大 150 個基點，達到 20.3%。調整後每股收益為 1.15 美元，由於營業利潤增加和優先股贖回的好處，增長了 25%。自由現金流為 18 億美元，因獲利增加而成長 5%。營運資金使用量約 6 億美元。較高的連續引擎交付量的帳單被有利的 AD&A 部分抵消。

Given the ongoing material availability challenges, inventory increased, although at a lower rate than prior quarters. Cash inflows from long-term service contract continued to be favorable. These results build on the momentum we had from the first half, with year-to-date revenue up 8% and operating profit up more than $1 billion or 25% from commercial services strength. We have delivered $4.6 billion of free cash flow, also up more than $1 billion year over year at nearly 130% conversion. This sets us up well to close out a strong year.

鑑於持續的材料供應挑戰，庫存增加，但增幅低於前幾個季度。長期服務合約現金流入持續良好。這些業績建立在我們上半年的勢頭之上，今年迄今為止的收入增長了 8%，營業利潤增長超過 10 億美元，即商業服務實力增長了 25%。我們已經交付了 46 億美元的自由現金流，年比也增加了超過 10 億美元，轉換率接近 130%。這使我們能夠很好地結束強勁的一年。

Turning to CES, in the third quarter, revenue was up 8%. Services up 10% from higher spare part sales, increasing shop visit work scopes and improved pricing. Internal shop visits were roughly flat year over year.

轉向 CES，第三季營收成長了 8%。由於備件銷售量增加、車間參觀工作範圍擴大以及定價提高，服務增加了 10%。內部商店訪問量同比基本持平。

Equipment revenue grew 5%, with customer mix and price more than offsetting lower units. Supply chain constraints impacted shipments across narrowbody and widebody, with total engine deliveries down 4%, including LEAP down 6%. Profit was $1.8 billion, up 16%, with margins expanding 180 basis points from higher services, volume and price.

設備收入成長 5%，客戶結構和價格足以抵銷單位數量減少的影響。供應鏈限制影響了窄體機和寬體機的出貨量，引擎總交付量下降了 4%，其中 LEAP 下降了 6%。利潤為 18 億美元，成長 16%，由於服務、數量和價格的提高，利潤率擴大了 180 個基點。

Equipment losses increased year over year from lower spare engine deliveries and higher investments, partially offset by improved pricing. Overall, CES has delivered solid year-to-date results with double-digit revenue growth; $4.9 billion of profit, up about $750 million year over year; and 170 basis points of margin expansion.

由於備用引擎交付量減少和投資增加，設備損失逐年增加，但部分被定價提高所抵消。整體而言，CES 年初至今取得了穩健的業績，營收實現了兩位數的成長；利潤49億美元，年增約7.5億美元；利潤率擴大170個基點。

Moving to DPT, orders were up 19% from strong demand at defense & systems. Defense book-to-bill was 1.6% in the quarter and 1.2% year to date. Our total DPT backlog is now $18 billion, up $1 billion year over year. Revenue grew 2% in the quarter.

轉向 DPT，由於國防和系統領域的強勁需求，訂單增長了 19%。本季國防訂單出貨率為 1.6%，年初至今為 1.2%。目前，我們的 DPT 積壓總額為 180 億美元，年增 10 億美元。本季營收成長 2%。

Defense & system systems revenue was down 2%. Improved pricing was more than offset by engine deliveries, down 1%, and unfavorable engine mix. Propulsion and additive technologies grew 9%, primarily driven by Avio Aero.

國防和系統收入下降 2%。引擎交付量下降 1% 和不利的引擎組合抵消了定價的提高。推進和增材技術成長了 9%，主要由 Avio Aero 推動。

Profit of $220 million was down 18% year over year on a tough compare. Inflation, adverse engine mix, and investments to support NexGen products more than offset price improvement. While we had a challenging quarter, year-to-date revenue and profit are up 6% and 22% respectively, with margins expanding 150 basis points. We continue to work towards improving delivery while providing solutions that meet the evolving needs of our military and allies.

對比之下，利潤為 2.2 億美元，年減 18%。通貨膨脹、不利的引擎組合以及支援 NexGen 產品的投資遠遠抵消了價格的上漲。儘管我們度過了一個充滿挑戰的季度，但年初至今的營收和利潤分別成長了 6% 和 22%，利潤率擴大了 150 個基點。我們繼續努力改善交付，同時提供滿足我們軍隊和盟友不斷變化的需求的解決方案。

Spending a moment on corporate, since becoming an independent company, we made considerable progress to ensure our operations reflect the needs of GE Aerospace. Year to date, total corporate cost is down about 25% or $150 million. We are also on track with our post-spin separation and restructuring plans.

自從成為獨立公司以來，我們在企業方面花了一些時間，在確保我們的營運反映 GE 航空航太公司的需求方面取得了長足的進步。今年迄今為止，該公司總成本下降了約 25%，即 1.5 億美元。我們的分拆後分離和重組計劃也正在按計劃進行。

Additionally, this quarter, we had non-GAAP adjustments from the gain on sale of our licensing business, agreement to settle a legacy lawsuit, and impairment of Colibrium additive goodwill. Colibrium additive is a critical business for us as it is utilized on several key components for LEAP and 9X. And it will be a key enabler for a future of flight as we continue to focus on where it can create the most value.

此外，本季度，我們對出售許可業務的收益、解決遺留訴訟的協議以及 Colibrium 附加商譽減損進行了非公認會計準則調整。 Colibium 添加劑對我們來說是一項至關重要的業務，因為它被用於 LEAP 和 9X 的多個關鍵元件。隨著我們繼續關注它能夠創造最大價值的領域，它將成為未來飛行的關鍵推動者。

Given the strong year-to-date performance and the trajectory entering the fourth quarter, we are raising our earnings and cash guidance. Revenue remains the same across our businesses. At CES, we continue to expect low double digits to mid-teens growth. This includes continued sequential growth in LEAP deliveries in the fourth quarter, but the full-year will now be down approximately 10% year over year.

鑑於年初至今的強勁表現和進入第四季度的軌跡，我們正在提高利潤和現金指導。我們各個業務的收入維持不變。在 CES 上，我們繼續預計將出現兩位數到十幾歲左右的低成長。這包括第四季度 LEAP 交付量持續環比成長，但全年將年減約 10%。

This guidance assumes ongoing deliveries to Boeing. We also continue to expect DPT growth mid- to high single digits, in line with the year-to-date performance of 6% growth. Operating profit is now expected to be in a range of $6.7 billion to $6.9 billion, up $150 million at the midpoint in the prior guide, implying over 200 basis points of margin expansion year over year.

本指引假設持續向波音交付。我們也繼續預期 DPT 成長為中高個位數，與今年迄今 6% 的成長表現一致。目前預計營業利潤將在 67 億美元至 69 億美元之間，比先前指南的中點增加 1.5 億美元，這意味著利潤率同比增長超過 200 個基點。

CES operating profit is now expected to be $6.6 billion to $6.8 billion, up $300 million at the midpoint from the prior guide, reflecting improved services mix. Internal shop visit growth will be lower than our prior estimate, offset by higher spare part sales, work scope. and mix. We expect DPT to be at the lower end of the current profit range of $1 billion to $1.3 billion. This reflects 3Q performance, increased investment in NextGen programs, and some pressure in P&AT.

CES 營運利潤目前預計為 66 億美元至 68 億美元，比先前指引的中位數增加 3 億美元，反映出服務組合的改善。內部商店訪問成長將低於我們先前的估計，但被較高的備件銷售和工作範圍所抵消。並混合。我們預計 DPT 將處於目前 10 億至 13 億美元利潤範圍的下限。這反映了第三季的業績、NextGen 專案投資的增加以及 P&AT 的一些壓力。

Corporate costs and eliminations are now expected to be around $850 million, down from below $900 million previously and $150 million reduction year over year. We now expect a tax rate of around 20%, lower than our prior expectation of low 20s. Interest expense is unchanged.

目前預計企業成本和消除額約 8.5 億美元，低於先前的 9 億美元，年減 1.5 億美元。我們現在預計稅率約為 20%，低於我們先前預期的 20% 以下。利息支出不變。

We are raising our adjusted EPS guidance to $4.20 to $4.35, up $0.20 at the midpoint from the prior guide from improved profit and lower tax rate. We are also raising our free cash flow guidance to $5.6 billion to $5.8 billion, up $250 million at the midpoint, primarily from higher earnings. All in, we are positioned to deliver significant revenue, profit, and free cash flow growth in 2024, and that provides us a solid foundation for '25. Larry, back to you.

由於利潤提高和稅率降低，我們將調整後每股收益指引上調至 4.20 美元至 4.35 美元，比先前的指引中位數上漲了 0.20 美元。我們也將自由現金流指引提高至 56 億美元至 58 億美元，中間值增加了 2.5 億美元，主要是由於獲利增加。總而言之，我們的目標是在 2024 年實現顯著的收入、利潤和自由現金流成長，這為我們的 25 世紀奠定了堅實的基礎。拉里，回到你身邊。

Rahul, thanks. GE Aerospace is positioned to deliver a solid year in our first as a stand-alone company with enhanced profitability and cash, supporting over $4 billion that we've returned to shareholders year to date. This performance is underpinned by our sustainable competitive advantages.

拉胡爾，謝謝。 GE航空航太公司預計將在我們作為獨立公司的第一年中實現穩健的一年，盈利能力和現金均有所提高，為我們今年迄今已向股東返還的超過40億美元提供支持。這一業績的基礎是我們可持續的競爭優勢。

Our platforms are preferred by customers across the narrowbody, widebody, and defense sectors. Our focus is on providing industry-leading services and technology with safety, quality, delivery, and cost in that order at the core of everything we do. We support our customers and we will deliver greater efficiency, reliability, and time on wing, as well as faster turnaround times to them.

我們的平台深受窄體機、寬體機和國防部門客戶的青睞。我們的重點是提供領先業界的服務和技術，並將安全、品質、交付和成本作為我們所做一切的核心。我們為客戶提供支持，並將為他們提供更高的效率、可靠性、更長的飛行時間以及更快的周轉時間。

We continue to keep an eye towards the future to deliver breakthrough technologies in commercial and defense to pave the way with innovation for a more sustainable flight and FLIGHT DECK connects our strategy to our results, enabling GE Aerospace to deliver for our customers, create exceptional value for shareholders, and to define our culture.

我們繼續著眼於未來，在商業和國防領域提供突破性技術，透過創新為更永續的飛行鋪平道路，FLIGHT DECK 將我們的策略與我們的成果聯繫起來，使GE 航空航太能夠為我們的客戶提供服務，創造卓越的價值為股東，並定義我們的文化。

Looking ahead, we're poised to continue to deliver meaningful profit and free cash flow growth in 2025 and beyond, combined with our capital allocation strategy, including returning approximately $25 billion of available cash to shareholders, will drive compounding shareholder returns. Now, we'll go to questions. Blaire.

展望未來，我們準備在 2025 年及以後繼續實現有意義的利潤和自由現金流成長，再加上我們的資本配置策略（包括向股東返還約 250 億美元的可用現金），將推動股東複合回報。現在，我們開始提問。布萊爾。

(Event Instructions) Liz, can you please open the line?

（活動說明）LZ，你可以開通線路嗎？

(Operator Instructions) David Strauss, Barclays.

（操作員說明）David Strauss，巴克萊銀行。

Thanks, good morning.

謝謝，早安。

Good morning, David.

早安，大衛。

So I wanted to ask, Larry, about 2025. So back at the Investor Day, you talked about $1 billion in profit growth in 2025 relative to 2024. Obviously, the 2024 EBIT guidance has come up, I think, about $550 million. So how should we think about the walk to 2025. Are we still looking at roughly $1 billion in EBIT growth off of a higher baseline now? Thanks.

拉里，我想問2025 年的情況。 5.5 億美元。那麼，我們該如何思考邁向 2025 年的腳步。謝謝。

David, we're really working through the updated '25 outlook. We're in the midst of our annual strategic planning reviews. Good bit of our time actually here in the third quarter was dedicated to that work. And that really transitions us now to the budget prep process will have a more defined look at '25 as we get closer. We'll review that with the Board at the end of the year. And then I think when we're together in January, we'll go through that in detail. Rahul, may want to just frame up how we are thinking about that vis-a-vis where we were back in March.

大衛，我們確實正在研究更新的 25 年展望。我們正在進行年度策略規劃審查。事實上，我們第三季的大部分時間都致力於這項工作。這確實使我們現在進入了預算準備流程，隨著我們臨近，我們將對 25 年有更明確的了解。我們將在年底與董事會一起審查這一點。然後我想當我們一月份聚在一起時，我們會詳細討論這個問題。拉胡爾（Rahul），可能只是想闡述我們對三月的情況的看法。

Yes. No, sure. Larry and David, thanks for the question. As you said, we are sitting at about $500 million, $550 million higher than where we were in March. So that is a higher starting point.

是的。不，當然。拉里和大衛，謝謝你們的提問。正如您所說，我們目前的估值約為 5 億美元，比 3 月的水平高出 5.5 億美元。所以這是一個更高的起點。

And just as we kind of take through the segment here a little bit, we expect commercial services to stay strong, grow low double digits given the significant backlog of shop visits that we have and the price increases that we've implemented. And the two other trends that are kind of working in our favor are CFM56 and GE90 kind of holding their share of departures with extremely low levels of retirement. On CFM56, the retirements this year have been lower than even where they were in 2023. And then LEAP services is trending nicely. So that -- all those things are going to help support the 2025 outlook.

正如我們在這裡稍微介紹一下該細分市場一樣，鑑於我們的商店訪問量大量積壓以及我們已經實施的價格上漲，我們預計商業服務將保持強勁，以低兩位數增長。另外兩個對我們有利的趨勢是 CFM56 和 GE90，它們以極低的退休水準維持著離職比例。在 CFM56 上，今年的退休人數甚至低於 2023 年的水平。因此，所有這些都將有助於支持 2025 年的前景。

On the equipment side, the equipment growth is slower in '24 than we had expected. So some of that volume will move to 2025. We are working those volume assumptions as we sit here today with the airframers to safe to say that equipment growth will be faster than that of services and will include higher 9X shipments. So that'll likely put some pressure on margins, but it is important to keep this flywheel going over the longer term. On the DPT side, the book-to-bill, as we just shared, has been very strong.

在設備方面，24 年設備成長低於我們的預期。因此，其中一些銷量將轉移到2025 年。出貨量。因此，這可能會給利潤率帶來一些壓力，但保持飛輪的長期運作很重要。在 DPT 方面，正如我們剛才所分享的，訂單出貨量一直非常強勁。

So we're entering '25 with a very strong backlog, mid- to high single-digit growth for next year and with profit growing faster than margins. And on the corporate side, we've done a really good job this year, taking cost out, 25% to 30% cost reduction based on the guide. And then that has accelerated some of these actions from next year into this year, but still plenty of opportunity in front of us. So all in, we'll work through our guidance here and provide the detail in Jan. But we see continued strong earnings and free cash flow outlook, which should stay above 100% for next year. And we continue to work for shareholder returns through what we're doing on dividend and share buyback.

因此，當我們進入 25 年時，積壓訂單非常強勁，明年將實現中高個位數成長，利潤成長速度快於利潤率成長速度。在企業方面，我們今年做得非常好，根據指南削減了成本，降低了 25% 到 30% 的成本。從明年到今年，這加速了其中一些行動，但我們面前仍然有很多機會。總而言之，我們將在此完成我們的指導並在 1 月份提供詳細信息。我們將繼續透過股利和股票回購來為股東帶來回報。

Doug Harned, Bernstein.

道格·哈內德，伯恩斯坦。

I wanted to continue a little bit on 2025, though, and specifically around your expectations for LEAP output. You're up quarter-over-quarter in Q3. But you've got the Boeing strike. You've got the supply chain constraints that you've talked before about HPT blades in particular, and then you've got to transition to the new HPT blades. So when you're trying to project those numbers for next year on LEAP output.

不過，我想繼續討論 2025 年的情況，特別是圍繞您對 LEAP 輸出的期望。第三季季增。但波音公司卻發生了罷工。您已經受到了先前討論過的 HPT 刀片的供應鏈限制，然後您必須過渡到新的 HPT 刀片。因此，當您嘗試在 LEAP 輸出中預測明年的這些數字時。

How do you trade those different things off? And where do you see yourself in terms of mitigating some of these issues?

你如何權衡這些不同的東西？您如何看待自己在緩解這些問題上的表現？

Well, Doug, I would just expand it a little bit more broadly than all of the items that you touched on there because in addition to thinking about the LEAP ramp, right, hand-in-hand with both Airbus and Boeing. We've got growing demand in the aftermarket. And we want to make sure we're taking care of the airlines and the airframers, and that's what the operating challenge is about. It's not one of demand.

好吧，道格，我只想將其擴展得比您在那裡提到的所有項目更廣泛一些，因為除了考慮 LEAP 坡道之外，與空中巴士和波音攜手並進。我們的售後市場需求不斷成長。我們希望確保我們照顧到航空公司和機身製造商，這就是營運挑戰所在。這不是需求之一。

We know we've got an incredible backlog here. Airbus, obviously, aiming to rate 75 down the road. We want to be with them each step of the way. Boeing in a different situation, but they're going to be ramping on the other side of resolving the work stoppage as well. And fortunately, they're both going to do that with our engines under wing.

我們知道這裡積壓的訂單數量令人難以置信。顯然，空中巴士的目標是在未來將評級提高到 75。我們希望與他們一起走好每一步。波音公司的情況有所不同，但他們也將在解決停工問題的另一邊加大力度。幸運的是，他們都將在我們的引擎位於機翼下的情況下做到這一點。

I think that what we saw in the third quarter, what we saw in the second quarter in terms of the work we are doing with FLIGHT DECK with the supply base really is what will determine how much of that aftermarket activity we can support, and what we're going to be able to do in terms of new engines as well. I'm encouraged by what we saw in the third quarter. I think in the prepared remarks, you saw that we had an 18% increase sequentially. And I think sequentially is really where it is operationally on the handful of critical suppliers that paced us a bit in the second quarter, paced is a bit here in the third, but I really like not only the underlying collaboration, but the on-site problem-solving that we're doing. I think we're unlocking capacity as a result, and that helps us deliver more to all of our customers.

我認為我們在第三季和第二季看到的在 FLIGHT DECK 和供應基地方面所做的工作確實將決定我們可以支援多少售後活動，以及什麼我們也將能夠在新引擎方面做到這一點。我對第三季所看到的情況感到鼓舞。我認為在準備好的發言中，您看到我們環比增長了 18%。我認為按順序確實是少數關鍵供應商的營運情況，這些供應商在第二季度加快了我們的步伐，在第三季度也加快了步伐，但我不僅喜歡底層的合作，還喜歡現場的合作解決我們正在做的問題。我認為我們正在釋放產能，這有助於我們為所有客戶提供更多服務。

That's what we're geared up to do here in the fourth quarter as well. As we said, LEAP will be down, unfortunately, year-over-year in terms of new engine deliveries. But I think we're poised, I think, as Rahul just touched on, to deliver good growth going into 2025. That's the goal. You mentioned the new HPT blade.

這也是我們在第四季準備要做的事。正如我們所說，不幸的是，LEAP 在新引擎交付量方面將比去年同期下降。但我認為，正如拉胡爾剛剛談到的那樣，我們已經準備好在 2025 年之前實現良好的成長。您提到了新的 HPT 刀片。

That, Doug, as you know, is really the fourth of four durability enhancements that we're excited about. We expect approval for the 1A version of that here shortly. That will be a real step function improvement in the field performance of the engine, and it's a twofer because we also know that it's an easier blade to make. That will unlock capacity, which will help us in 2025 in earnest as well. So still work to do.

道格，正如您所知，這實際上是我們感到興奮的四項耐久性增強中的第四項。我們預計 1A 版本很快就會獲得批准。這將是引擎現場性能的真正階梯功能改進，而且是一舉兩得，因為我們也知道它是更容易製造的葉片。這將釋放產能，這也將在 2025 年為我們帶來實際幫助。所以還有工作要做。

I like the travel that we're seeing, and our team and our supplier teams know that we're fortunate to have this incredible backlog to service for the airframers and for the airlines, and that's what 2025 will largely be about.

我喜歡我們所看到的旅行，我們的團隊和供應商團隊知道，我們很幸運能夠為機身製造商和航空公司提供如此令人難以置信的積壓服務，這就是 2025 年的主要內容。

Robert Stallard, Vertical Research.

羅伯特·斯塔拉德，垂直研究。

I'm not sure if there's a question for, but since we last spoke, Boeing announced another delay on the 777X program, I was wondering what sort of financial and practical implications this might have for GE Aerospace?

我不確定是否有問題要問，但自從我們上次交談以來，波音公司宣布再次推遲 777X 項目，我想知道這可能對通用電氣航空航太公司產生什麼樣的財務和實際影響？

Well, maybe I'll speak to the operation, Rahul can touch on the financial. We heard what you heard. I'm sure Kelly and company will talk a little bit more about that tomorrow. But from an operational perspective, really no change whatsoever at GE Aerospace with respect to what we're doing to continue to test the engine and prepare for a production ramp going forward. And I think it's really that simple.

好吧，也許我會談談營運方面的問題，拉胡爾可以談談財務方面的問題。我們聽到了你所聽到的。我相信凱利和他的公司明天會更多地談論這個問題。但從營運角度來看，GE航空航太公司在繼續測試引擎並為未來的產量提升做準備方面確實沒有任何變化。我認為事情就是這麼簡單。

We're excited about that engine. We know that aircraft is late, but every customer that I talk to and have the opportunity to spend time with a few of them just this past weekend, they love the airplane. They want the airplane. It's really, at this point, a matter of time.

我們對這具引擎感到很興奮。我們知道飛機晚點，但上週末與我交談並有機會與他們中的一些人共度時光的每一位客戶，他們都喜歡這架飛機。他們想要飛機。在這一點上，這確實是一個時間問題。

And Rob, from our guidance perspective, we do have a few rev rec units here in the fourth quarter. We've already started delivering the engines to Boeing. Some of them are already gone, more will go out here in the remaining 2 months of the quarter. For '25, we're working with Boeing on exactly how many engines would they need based on their demand profile. So that is work that we need to do in the next couple of months.

羅布，從我們的指導角度來看，我們在第四季度確實有一些轉速記錄單位。我們已經開始向波音公司提供引擎。其中一些已經消失，更多的將在本季度剩餘的 2 個月內消失。對於 25 年，我們正在與波音合作，根據他們的需求情況確定他們需要多少引擎。這就是我們在接下來的幾個月裡需要做的工作。

But we expect that the program will obviously ramp here over the decade. And the key for us is just to continue to work the cost out. And as we shared at Investor Day, we expect about 30% of the cost to come out by the 50th engine, an additional 30% as we get to the 250th engine. So that's what's in our plan. And we'll move past the peak losses towards later in the decade and the program should be profitable by 2030. So that's what we built in into both our near-term and long-term outlook.

但我們預計該計劃將在十年內明顯加強。對我們來說，關鍵是繼續計算成本。正如我們在投資者日分享的那樣，我們預計第 50 台發動機將節省約 30% 的成本，當我們生產第 250 台發動機時，將額外節省 30% 的成本。這就是我們的計劃。我們將在本十年稍後度過虧損高峰，該計劃應該會在 2030 年實現盈利。

Myles Walton, Wolfe Research.

邁爾斯·沃爾頓，沃爾夫研究中心。

I was hoping you can comment on the customer concessions or penalties that might be associated with delinquency of deliveries, both on the the commercial side and the military side, which are obviously below your plan and expectation. We get asked the question a lot, how do the financials that GE keep getting better if the underlying deliveries keep getting worse? I'm just curious if you can elucidate some of the penalties you might be absorbing under the surface for the delinquencies?

我希望您能對可能與延遲交貨相關的客戶讓步或處罰發表評論，無論是商業方面還是軍事方面，這顯然低於您的計劃和期望。我們經常被問到這樣一個問題：如果基礎交付量持續惡化，那麼通用電氣的財務狀況如何持續改善？我只是好奇你是否能解釋一下你可能因違法行為而在表面下承受的一些處罰？

Myles, let me start and Larry jump in here. Myles, as you know, kind of typical contracts with the customers. But everything that that we need to accrue for we're obviously accruing for, and that's kind of built into the guidance. But I want to say that it's not been a material number for us here as we sit here in 2024. So we're working through and trying to support the customers as best as we know how.

麥爾斯，讓我開始，拉里跳到這裡。如您所知，邁爾斯是與客戶簽訂的典型合約。但我們顯然正在累積我們需要累積的一切，這已經納入了指南中。但我想說，對於 2024 年的我們來說，這並不是一個重要的數字。

And as you saw, the deliveries are sequentially better in the third quarter. They'll get better in the fourth quarter, and will continue to improve as we work past these supply chain challenges. But nothing major in -- on the liquidity damages or penalty side on either side on either commercial or military.

正如您所看到的，第三季的交付量連續好轉。他們將在第四季度變得更好，並將隨著我們克服這些供應鏈挑戰而繼續改進。但沒有什麼重大的事情——無論是商業還是軍事方面的流動性損害或懲罰。

Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies.

希拉·卡哈奧格魯，杰弗里斯。

Maybe we could talk about DPP. Orders and backlog continue to be very strong despite the softness in profitability. I assume some of that is coming from the combat engine shortfalls, but you also mentioned pressure across propulsion and additive plus the charge today. So when we think about the low end of 2024 guide, it would suggest Q4 margins step down again sequentially. How do we think about what happens into 2025 and what's driving some of that margin pressure?

也許我們可以談談民進黨。儘管盈利能力疲軟，但訂單和積壓訂單仍然非常強勁。我認為其中一些來自戰鬥引擎的不足，但你也提到了推進和添加劑以及今天的充電的壓力。因此，當我們考慮 2024 年指導的低端時，這表明第四季度的利潤率將再次連續下降。我們如何看待 2025 年會發生什麼事以及是什麼推動了利潤率壓力？

So, Sheila, I think you touched on it. The biggest pressure point here in the fourth quarter is our investment in R&D to support the next-gen programs. So that is the biggest driver here. Given the budget uncertainty, we are continuing to invest from our side to make sure that we meet the time lines that the customers need from us. So that's the biggest point.

所以，希拉，我想你已經談到了這一點。第四季最大的壓力點是我們為支持下一代專案而進行的研發投資。所以這是最大的驅動力。鑑於預算的不確定性，我們將繼續進行投資，以確保滿足客戶對我們的要求。這就是最大的一點。

There's a little bit of product mix in Avio Aero that is putting a little bit of pressure on propulsion and additive technologies that we referenced. But the biggest driver here is the R&D increase in the fourth quarter. Now as you go into '25, as you mentioned, the backlog is strong, up -- it's $18 billion, up about $1 billion year-over-year for the segment. So that supports the mid- to high single-digit growth that I mentioned earlier in response to David's question. And we do expect that, as we get into '25, our profit should grow faster than revenue, and that should drive continued margin expansion on the DPT segment.

Avio Aero 的一些產品組合給我們提到的推進和添加劑技術帶來了一些壓力。但最大的推動因素是第四季研發的成長。現在，正如您所提到的，進入 25 年後，積壓訂單數量強勁且呈上升趨勢，達到 180 億美元，該領域同比增長約 10 億美元。因此，這支持了我之前在回答大衛問題時提到的中高個位數成長。我們確實預計，隨著進入 25 年，我們的利潤成長速度將快於營收成長，這將推動 DPT 領域的利潤率持續擴張。

And keep in mind, the results on a year-to-date basis have been very strong as well. So we'll continue that into '25.

請記住，今年迄今的結果也非常強勁。所以我們將繼續這樣做到 25 年。

Our next question comes from the line of Ronald Epstein with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自羅納德·愛潑斯坦與美國銀行的對話。

Can you maybe peel back the onion a little bit more on shop visits in the quarter. LEAP was up, but other things were down. If you can go into that in a little more detail that might be helpful for everybody.

您能否在本季度參觀商店時再剝一點洋蔥？ LEAP 上漲，但其他業務下跌。如果您能更詳細地討論這一點，可能對每個人都有幫助。

Ron, I think it's very much what we have been touching on here this morning, what we've talked about previously just in terms of the various supply chain challenges that we're seeing really across the board, right? We talk a lot about LEAP, given the the ramp there and what's happening in the aftermarket. But these same suppliers support us across virtually every one of our programs. So what we're trying to do is make sure that the FLIGHT DECK improvements that we're seeing, that we've highlighted here this morning, are broad-based. That's why we've got over 550 engineers in the field working with the supply base to really enable us to have more flow into our facilities, whether they support new make of an engine, let alone the aftermarket.

羅恩，我認為這就是我們今天早上在這裡討論的內容，我們之前討論過的只是我們真正全面看到的各種供應鏈挑戰，對吧？考慮到 LEAP 的發展以及售後市場的情況，我們談了很多。但這些供應商幾乎支持我們的每項計劃。因此，我們正在努力做的是確保我們今天早上在這裡強調的飛行甲板改進具有廣泛的基礎。這就是為什麼我們有超過 550 名工程師在現場與供應基地合作，真正使我們能夠有更多的資金流入我們的設施，無論他們是否支持新品牌的發動機，更不用說售後市場了。

When that flow is not constant, when that flow is not improving, that's when things are delayed. And depending on where we are in a particular facility or a particular product line, you may see that present itself in 1 area in 1 quarter, perhaps in another elsewhere. It's not something we're particularly pleased with, but I think we're focused on the problem solving, not the finger pointing. And on balance, are encouraged by what we have seen here in the third quarter. You saw the results of it, I think, more pronounced in new engine deliveries and in spare parts growth than necessarily in our internal shop visits, which were lower sequentially.

當這種流動不恆定時，當這種流動沒有改善時，那就是事情被延遲的時候。根據我們在特定工廠或特定產品線中的位置，您可能會看到它在一個季度的一個區域中出現，也許在其他地方的另一個區域中出現。這不是我們特別滿意的事情，但我認為我們專注於解決問題，而不是指責。總的來說，我們對第三季所看到的情況感到鼓舞。我認為，您看到了其結果，在新引擎交付和備件增長方面比我們內部車間訪問中所必然看到的結果更為明顯，而內部車間訪問量連續較低。

But I think on balance, what we need to do in concert with our suppliers is underway. I think we're developing momentum with them that I think is what gives us the optimism embedded in the guidance raise here for the fourth quarter and some of the commentary that Rahul provided with respect to next year. That's the financial framing operationally. We know we have customers, airlines and airframers that want more from us, and that's job 1.

但我認為總的來說，我們需要與供應商合作的事情正在進行中。我認為我們正在與他們一起發展勢頭，我認為這給我們帶來了第四季度指導意見和拉胡爾對明年的一些評論中的樂觀情緒。這就是可操作的財務框架。我們知道我們的客戶、航空公司和飛機製造商希望從我們這裡得到更多，而這就是工作 1。

And Ron, if I may add one thing that you did see in the quarter is that the spare part sales are up. So as Larry spoke about the material availability challenges, we constantly balance the needs of both our external and the internal network and prioritize the delivery of parts to reduce the turnaround time for our airline customers, be it in our own network or in the external network. So there's a little bit of fungibility of those same parts between spare parts sales and shop visits. And this quarter, what you saw was the spare part sales were higher, shoppers were flat on a year-over-year basis in the third quarter. But now as we're getting into the fourth quarter, we have -- our inductions for shop visits were higher than our output.

羅恩，如果我可以補充一點，您在本季度確實看到的一件事是備件銷售量增加了。因此，當拉里談到材料可用性挑戰時，我們不斷平衡外部和內部網路的需求，並優先考慮零件的交付，以減少航空公司客戶的周轉時間，無論是在我們自己的網路還是外部網路中。因此，在備件銷售和商店訪問之間，這些相同的零件有一點可互換性。本季度，您看到的是備件銷售額更高，第三季度購物者比去年同期持平。但現在，隨著我們進入第四季度，我們的商店參觀量高於我們的產量。

So we're getting to the fourth quarter with a fairly high backlog of shop visits that we need to complete. And even on a spare part basis, more than 80% of the spare part sales that we are projecting are already in the backlog. So good strength on both sides on the spare parts and shop visits. And with the price increases that we implemented in the third quarter, all that -- you put all that together, and that is where we felt very comfortable holding our services growth outlook for the year.

因此，到了第四季度，我們需要完成相當多的積壓的商店訪問工作。即使在備件基礎上，我們預計 80% 以上的備件銷售也已處於積壓狀態。雙方在備件和車間參觀方面實力雄厚。隨著我們在第三季度實施的價格上漲，所有這些 - 你把所有這些放在一起，這就是我們對今年服務成長前景感到非常滿意的地方。

Our next question comes from Seth Seifman with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Seth Seifman。

I guess at the risk of getting ahead of things a little bit, maybe to dig in a little bit more on some of the comments that you made about 2025. When we think about next year versus the way that you talked about 2025 in March, I mean, I would assume that the engine deliveries are a headwind year-on-year. But probably starting from where we're starting from, maybe the engines are not a -- maybe not reaching the same level of deliveries that were expected at that time. And so relative to the dollars at that time, maybe the OE losses are not quite as big. I was wondering if we should think about it that way.

我想冒著有點超前的風險，也許要深入研究一下您對 2025 年所做的一些評論。量與去年同期相比是不利的。但也許從我們開始的地方開始，也許引擎還沒有達到當時預期的交付水平。因此，相對於當時的美元，OE 的損失也許沒有那麼大。我想知道我們是否應該這樣考慮。

And then also just in terms of thinking about, not just the volume of work on LEAP in the aftermarket, but LEAP profitability, is that something that we should expect to improve next year?

然後，我們也想一下，不僅是售後市場上 LEAP 的工作量，還有 LEAP 的獲利能力，我們是否應該期望明年會有所改善？

I think, Seth, you are accurate on both counts, right? Our engine output perhaps is not at the level that we'd expected back in March. So that should minimize our -- or reduce our engine losses. But keep in mind, there're other dynamics that go in as well, the number of spare engines we have to deliver, R&D investments, all those other things. So that's just 1 data point.

我認為，塞斯，你在這兩點上都是準確的，對嗎？我們的引擎輸出可能沒有達到我們三月預期的水平。因此，這應該可以最大限度地減少我們的引擎損失。但請記住，還有其他動態因素，我們必須提供的備用引擎數量、研發投資以及所有其他因素。所以這只是 1 個數據點。

which you're accurate on Again, we'll provide more guidance as we get into 2025. On the LEAP side, I think that is definitely shaping up to be a lot better than what we expected at the beginning of the year. Obviously, Larry spoke about the durability improvements that are coming in and the fact that we are expecting LEAP durability to be at CFM56 levels in 2025. So that's a huge plus. But also what we've started to see is that our spare part sales to our external network is growing.

再次強調，進入 2025 年，我們將提供更多指導。顯然，Larry 談到了即將到來的耐用性改進，以及我們預計 LEAP 耐用性將在 2025 年達到 CFM56 水平這一事實。但我們也開始看到，我們對外部網路的備件銷售正在成長。

So this year, north of 10% of the shop visits that we -- that shoppers that we completed were by external third-party network. And that is obviously a very profitable business. And if you look on a sold basis, about 25% of the shop visits that are sold are with an external third-party network. So those are -- that's an important data point because that means that spare part sales for LEAP should grow over time. So that should be a positive here for 2025, and we'll reflect that in our guidance as we provide that in January.

因此，今年，我們完成的購物者訪問量中有 10% 以上是透過外部第三方網路完成的。這顯然是一項非常有利可圖的業務。如果您查看銷售量，您會發現大約 25% 的銷售量是透過外部第三方網路進行的。所以，這是一個重要的數據點，因為這意味著 LEAP 的備件銷售應該會隨著時間的推移而成長。因此，這對 2025 年應該是積極的，我們將在 1 月提供的指導中反映這一點。

Seth, 2 other things I would just add that we want to keep in mind. One, the 9X delay in EIS is important to understand. But as I said earlier, we really haven't changed what we're doing. We'll be ramping deliveries of that engine next year, maybe at a slower rate than was anticipated. But nonetheless, we'll be ramping.

Seth，我想補充兩件事，我們要記住。第一，理解 EIS 中的 9 倍延遲很重要。但正如我之前所說，我們確實沒有改變我們正在做的事情。明年我們將增加該引擎的交付量，但速度可能會比預期慢。但儘管如此，我們還是會加大力度。

That will create a bit of a headwind, but also perhaps there's a bit of an offset, maybe and then some. Recall what we said last quarter relative to the CFM56 utilization, it will be higher for longer. That obviously helps us as it's helping us this year.

這會產生一些逆風，但也可能會產生一些抵消，也許然後是一些。回想一下我們上季度所說的相對於 CFM56 利用率而言，它將在更長時間內保持在較高水準。這顯然對我們有幫助，就像今年對我們有幫助一樣。

Scott Deuschle, RigeBank.

德施勒 (Scott Deuschle)，RigeBank。

Larry, has CES already received a large quantity of these new HPT blades for the LEAP 1A ahead of the certification? And then just to clarify, is that specific certification event, is it that event, which allows the company to drive this improvement in LEAP output in the fourth quarter or is it more multifaceted than that alone?

Larry，CES 是否已經在認證之前收到了大量用於 LEAP 1A 的新型 HPT 刀片？然後澄清一下，是特定的認證事件，還是該事件使公司能夠在第四季度推動 LEAP 產出的改善，還是比單獨的認證事件更加多方面？

The new blade is in production. So it's not as if we're going to turn on that supply chain the moment we get served, right? That work is underway. If we had that component that part is certified, we'll be able to begin deliveries, but we really can't do that ahead of time. But again, without trying to put anyone in a box, we think that will happen in the relatively near future.

新刀片正在生產中。因此，我們並不是要在獲得服務後立即啟動供應鏈，對嗎？這項工作正在進行中。如果我們擁有該部件，該部件經過認證，我們將能夠開始交付，但我們確實無法提前這樣做。但同樣，在不試圖將任何人限制在一個盒子裡的情況下，我們認為這將在不久的將來發生。

That is an unlock, Scott, but please don't think that it is the unlock, right? It will help, most importantly, because it is part of that durability kit. That matters far more in the spirit of safety and quality than it does delivery. But because it is an easier blade to make upstream in the manufacturing processes, that will help us. But most of what we will deliver in the fourth quarter will really be on the back of the existing designs, (inaudible) what we supply into the aftermarket?

這是一個解鎖，斯科特，但請不要認為這是解鎖，對吧？最重要的是，它會有所幫助，因為它是耐用套件的一部分。從安全和品質的角度來看，這比交付更重要。但由於它是一種更容易在製造過程上游製造的葉片，這將對我們有所幫助。但我們將在第四季度交付的大部分產品實際上將基於現有設計，（聽不清楚）我們向售後市場提供什麼？

So there are a host of things that have to happen and are happening in that regard. If there was one -- if there was a silver bullet here, we would have used it some time ago. It's multifaceted, but again, I'm encouraged by the progress that we're seeing the certification of the new Blade just helps on top of all that.

因此，在這方面有許多事情必須發生並且正在發生。如果有的話——如果這裡有靈丹妙藥，我們早就用過了。它是多方面的，但同樣，我對所取得的進展感到鼓舞，因為我們看到新 Blade 的認證不僅有助於解決所有這些問題。

Gautam Khanna, TD Cowen.

高塔姆·卡納，TD·考恩。

I was wondering if you could frame up for us your expectations now for CFM shop visits over the next couple of years versus maybe that widebody, maybe if you could just tease that out a bit.

我想知道您是否可以向我們闡述一下您對未來幾年 CFM 商店訪問的期望，以及對寬體飛機的期望，也許您可以稍微梳理一下。

So Gautam, as we said, I think, on the last earnings call, we had expected the peak of shop visits to be in 2025 and then start declining in '26 and '27, right? Given what we are seeing now, we still expect the peak of shop visits in '25, but now to stay at that level to '27 and then start declining from that point on, again, at a gradual pace, right? So that's what our expectation is. Now keep in mind that revenue growth will continue to grow for longer just given as we go into the second and third shop visits with price increases, everything else, so revenue still continues to grow. On the widebody side, GE90 is getting into the second shop visit.

因此，高塔姆，正如我們所說，我認為在上次財報電話會議上，我們預計商店訪問量的峰值將在 2025 年出現，然後在 26 年和 27 年開始下降，對吧？鑑於我們現在所看到的情況，我們仍然預計商店訪問量的峰值將在 25 年達到，但現在將保持在該水平到 27 年，然後從那時起開始逐漸下降，對嗎？這就是我們的期望。現在請記住，考慮到我們進入第二次和第三次商店訪問時價格上漲以及其他一切，收入增長將繼續增長更長時間，因此收入仍在繼續增長。在寬體機方面，GE90 即將進入第二次進店參觀。

Keep in mind that 75% of that fleet has not seen the second shop visit. So that's what we are beginning to see now. And that spoke to the heavier work scopes that we've also previously discussed, which helped our revenue here in 2024 and will continue to grow over time as we transition to the second shop visits for GE90. So again, no change in outlook on GE90, I think the engine is performing well, things are coming in well. On the NX side, the shop visit are roughly, on a volume basis, we're expecting that to be flat over the next three to four years.

請記住，車隊中有 75% 的人沒有去過第二次商店。這就是我們現在開始看到的情況。這涉及到我們之前討論過的更繁重的工作範圍，這有助於我們在 2024 年的收入，並且隨著我們過渡到 GE90 的第二次車間訪問，該收入將隨著時間的推移繼續增長。再說一遍，GE90 的前景沒有變化，我認為引擎表現良好，一切進展順利。在 NX 方面，從數量來看，我們預計商店訪問量在未來三到四年內將持平。

And the primary reason for that is, even as the installed base is growing, the time on wing is doing a lot better than what you had initially expected. So the shop visits that were in the '25 to the '28 time frame have now moved out later in the decade. Again, that's good news for us. As you know, about 60% north of that portfolio is serviced by us and is in a long-term service contract. So fewer shop visits on the NX side improves the profitability of that program.

主要原因是，即使安裝基礎不斷增長，飛行時間也比您最初預期的要好得多。因此，25 年至 28 年期間的商店訪問現在已移至本十年後期。這對我們來說又是個好消息。如您所知，該產品組合中約 60% 的產品由我們提供服務，並且簽訂了長期服務合約。因此，減少 NX 方面的車間訪問次數可以提高該計劃的盈利能力。

So that's what our expectation is on NX. The shop visits are all going to happen. But given the time on wing improvement, they've kind of moved out of the '25 to the '28 time frame to more '28 to '31.

這就是我們對 NX 的期望。商店參觀都會發生。但考慮到側翼改進的時間，他們已經從25年到28年的時間範圍轉移到了28年到31年的時間範圍。

Ken Herbert, RBC Capital Markets.

肯‧赫伯特，加拿大皇家銀行資本市場。

I wanted to just follow up, Larry, specifically on your comment around the subset of priority sites grew material output or input, I guess, 18% sequentially, was that in line with your expectations? And I'm just curious, as you think about sort of applying FLIGHT DECK to the situation, how should that maybe improve as we think about fourth quarter and into 2025?

拉里，我想跟進一下您對優先站點子集的評論，我猜，連續增長了 18%，這符合您的預期嗎？我只是很好奇，當您考慮將 FLIGHT DECK 應用於這種情況時，當我們考慮第四季度和 2025 年時，這種情況應該如何改進？

Ken, I think we were very pleased with the 18%, but we could have used more, right? Again, just in light of where demand is in the aftermarket and from a new make, from a ramp perspective. But I think the underlying approach is exactly what we're doing broadly. You've heard us talk before about the larger set of suppliers where we're particularly focused, our so-called top 15. And it goes beyond that over time, ultimately, to all of our suppliers.

Ken，我認為我們對 18% 非常滿意，但我們本來可以使用更多，對嗎？同樣，從坡道的角度來看，只是考慮到售後市場和新品牌的需求。但我認為基本方法正是我們正在廣泛做的事情。您之前聽過我們談論過我們特別關注的更大範圍的供應商，即我們所謂的前 15 名供應商。

I think what we're finding is by really collaborating, again, not finger-pointing, but going in, putting our best technical, our best operational people at the (inaudible) face to identify the constraints, really understand root cause and drive corrective actions, both permanent and temporary where appropriate, we're able to unlock capacity.

我認為我們所發現的是透過真正的合作，再次強調，不是互相指責，而是投入其中，讓我們最好的技術人員、我們最好的營運人員（聽不清楚）面對限制，真正了解根本原因並推動糾正在適當的情況下採取永久性和臨時性的行動，我們能夠釋放能力。

Now, given what we need to do between here and 2030 to support the aftermarket, to support new make, we're going to need to do more than that. But that that FLIGHT DECK effort, I think, is what will help us deliver a better fourth quarter here and is really the foundation for 2025. We're clearly going to also need to complement that with fixed capacity investments. You've heard us talk about the $1 billion, for example, over the next five years that we intend to invest in our MRO network.

現在，考慮到從現在到 2030 年我們需要做些什麼來支援售後市場、支援新產品，我們需要做的不僅僅是這些。但我認為，飛行甲板的努力將幫助我們實現更好的第四季業績，並且確實是 2025 年的基礎。例如，您聽說過我們計劃在未來五年內投資 10 億美元用於 MRO 網路。

That will be part of improving these deliveries. In turn, the development of the third-party network is also an important part of satisfying customer demand. But by going in and really understanding these issues, not arguing about them, not negotiating, but solving the problems, we know we're going to unlock that capacity. We're going to be better partners and, in turn, that will allow us to serve our customers ultimately.

這將是改善這些交付的一部分。反過來，第三方網路的發展也是滿足客戶需求的重要組成部分。但是，透過深入了解並真正理解這些問題，不是爭論它們，不是談判，而是解決問題，我們知道我們將釋放這種能力。我們將成為更好的合作夥伴，反過來，這將使我們最終能夠為客戶提供服務。

Noah Poponak, Goldman Sachs.

諾亞·波波納克，高盛。

Larry, was there -- is there a specific 777X 9x headwind that was in the [7.1% to 7.5%] for 2025 that we should think about lifting up and moving beyond '25? Or is it more spread out than that? And can you quantify, put numbers on that? And then, I guess, just at the CES total margin, if I go to the high end of your new EBIT range for '24, the fourth quarter margin would be basically flat from the third, which I guess is a little surprising despite mix, but maybe there's more services catch-up in there and isn't as much mix headwind there as I was thinking?

Larry，是 - 2025 年 777X 9x 是否存在特定的逆風 [7.1% 至 7.5%]，我們應該考慮提升並超越 25 年？或者它比這更分散？你能量化一下嗎？然後，我想，就CES 總利潤率而言，如果我轉到24 年新的息稅前利潤範圍的高端，第四季度的利潤率將基本上與第三季度持平，我想這有點令人驚訝，儘管混合，但也許那裡有更多的服務追趕，並且那裡的混合逆風沒有我想像的那麼多？

So let me take that maybe in reverse order here, Noah, and just tell me if I don't get there. So as we think about the third to the fourth quarter transition in CES, a few things, right, the services, as you -- as we've discussed, obviously, strong services growth here in the fourth quarter. Just -- we had 12% year to date, projecting 15% for the full year. So stronger growth here in the fourth quarter. Same thing with the OE growth as well, OE growth lamps.

因此，諾亞，讓我以相反的順序來理解這一點，如果我沒有到達那裡，請告訴我。因此，當我們考慮 CES 的第三季度到第四季度的過渡時，有一些事情，對，服務，正如我們所討論的，顯然，第四季度的服務強勁增長。只是——我們今年迄今的成長率為 12%，預計全年成長率為 15%。第四季的成長更加強勁。 OE 生長也是如此，OE 生長燈。

We do have the 9X shipments here in the fourth quarter, so that puts a little bit of pressure on the CES margins. And then we've got a step-up in R&D in the CES number as well. So those are the various puts and takes in the fourth quarter for 2024. Now on the next question, there was a specific headwind in that [ $7.1 to 7.5% ] number that we had provided. And as Larry just said a minute ago, there will be a 9X headwind in 2025.

我們第四季的出貨量確實達到了 9 倍，因此這對 CES 的利潤率造成了一些壓力。然後，我們在 CES 上的研發工作也得到了加強。這些是 2024 年第四季的各種看跌期權和賣出期權。正如拉里 (Larry) 一分鐘前所說，2025 年將面臨 9 倍的逆風。

And we are not able to quantify that just yet because we need to work the exact volume assumptions for '25 with Boeing. So we'll come back to it in January. And then as you think about that 9X headwind, it will grow for a period of time beyond that because as engine deliveries ramp, that headwind will grow that specific headwind will grow. And until we start getting the cost out and all that and as I said a minute ago, we expect the program losses to peak here later in this decade in the program to be profitable by 2030. But again, that's 1 specific number.

我們還無法量化這一點，因為我們需要與波音公司一起計算 25 年的準確產量假設。所以我們會在一月再討論這個問題。然後，當你想到 9 倍的逆風時，它會在一段時間內增長，因為隨著引擎交付量的增加，逆風將會增長，特定的逆風也會增長。在我們開始計算成本和所有這些之前，正如我一分鐘前所說，我們預計計劃損失將在本十年晚些時候達到峰值，計劃到 2030 年實現盈利。

Obviously, there're many different puts and takes in the overall outlook for the business, including the strong services outlook that we've just discussed.

顯然，對業務的整體前景有許多不同的看法，包括我們剛才討論的強勁的服務前景。

Larry, any final comments?

拉里，最後有什麼意見嗎？

Blaire, thank you. And just to close here, thanks to everybody for being with us here the last hour. We take great pride at GE Aerospace and our heritage of innovation, and I'm confident the team is ready to deliver for our customers and rise to the challenge of creating a more sustainable future flight. Again, we appreciate your time today and your interest in GE Aerospace.

布萊爾，謝謝你。最後，感謝大家在最後一小時與我們同在。我們對 GE 航空航太公司和我們的創新傳統感到非常自豪，我相信團隊已準備好為我們的客戶提供服務，並迎接創造更永續的未來飛行的挑戰。再次感謝您今天抽出時間以及您對 GE 航空航天公司的興趣。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝你們，女士們、先生們。今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。