奇異 (GE) 2024 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the GE Aerospace fourth-quarter 2024 earnings conference call.

女士們、先生們，美好的一天，歡迎參加 GE 航空航太公司 2024 年第四季財報電話會議。

(Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

（操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today's conference, Blaire Shoor, Head of Investor Relations.

現在我想將會議議程交給今天會議的主持人、投資者關係主管布萊爾·肖爾 (Blaire Shoor)。

Please proceed.

請繼續。

Thanks, Liz.

謝謝，莉茲。

Welcome to GE Aerospace's fourth-quarter and full-year 2024 earnings call.

歡迎參加 GE 航空航太公司 2024 年第四季和全年財報電話會議。

I'm joined by Chairman and CEO, Larry Culp; and CFO, Rahul Ghai.

董事長兼執行長 Larry Culp 也加入了我的行列。和首席財務官拉胡爾·蓋伊。

Many of the statements we're making are forward looking and based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today.

我們所做的許多聲明都是前瞻性的，並且基於我們對世界和我們今天的業務的最佳看法。

As described in our SEC filings and website, those elements may change as the world changes.

正如我們在 SEC 文件和網站中所述，這些要素可能會隨著世界的變化而變化。

Additionally, Larry and Rahul, consistent with prior quarters, will speak to total company and corporate financial results and guidance today on a non-GAAP basis.

此外，與前幾季一樣，拉里和拉胡爾今天將在非公認會計原則的基礎上談論公司和企業的整體財務表現和指導。

Now, over to Larry.

現在，輪到拉里了。

Blaire, thank you.

布萊爾，謝謝你。

And good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

Head of Investor Relations, that has a nice ring to it, Blaire.

布萊爾，投資人關係主管，聽起來不錯。

I hope everybody saw our announcement last week relative to Blaire's promotion.

我希望每個人都看到我們上週有關布萊爾晉升的公告。

She's excited.

她很興奮。

We're excited.

我們很興奮。

2024 was a year for the history books at GE Aerospace.

2024 年是載入 GE 航空航太歷史的一年。

In April, we became a standalone public company, the culmination of GE's multi-year transformation.

4 月，我們成為一家獨立的上市公司，這是 GE 多年轉型的頂峰。

Nothing has been more front and center than our purpose: inventing the future of flight, lifting people up, and bringing them home safely.

沒有什麼比我們的目標更重要、最核心的了：發明飛行的未來，提升人們的安全，並將他們安全帶回家。

Those last four words remain our top priority with nearly 1 million passengers in flight at this very moment with our technology underwing.

最後四個字仍然是我們的首要任務，此時此刻，在我們的技術支援下，航班上有近 100 萬名乘客。

We launched FLIGHT DECK, our proprietary lean operating model, to better serve our customers through a relentless focus on safety, quality, delivery, and cost -- in that order.

我們推出了 FLIGHT DECK，這是我們專有的精益營運模式，透過不懈地專注於安全、品質、交付和成本，更好地服務我們的客戶。

Seeing our teams in action through the year with FLIGHT DECK from Malaysia to Wales to Asheville and elsewhere truly was energizing.

看到我們的團隊在這一年中使用 FLIGHT DECK 從馬來西亞到威爾斯再到阿什維爾和其他地方的行動確實令人充滿活力。

Commercial momentum continued as we signed several key services agreements and received orders for more than 4,600 commercial and defense engines.

我們簽署了多項關鍵服務協議並收到了超過 4,600 台商用和國防發動機的訂單，商業勢頭持續強勁。

In narrow-bodies, this included American Airlines' commitment for 85 new Boeing 737 MAX jets powered by our LEAP-1B.

在窄體飛機方面，這包括美國航空公司承諾購買 85 架由我們的 LEAP-1B 提供動力的新型波音 737 MAX 噴射機。

In wide-bodies, we were honored to add a new GEnx customer, British Airways.

在寬體客機方面，我們很榮幸地增加了一位新的 GEnx 客戶——英國航空公司。

And in defense, we received an order from the Polish Armed Forces for 210 T700 engines to power the 96 Boeing AH-64E Apache Guardian helicopters.

在國防方面，我們收到了波蘭武裝部隊的訂單，購買 210 台 T700 發動機，為 96 架波音 AH-64E 阿帕契衛士直升機提供動力。

To close the year, we received certification of the LEAP-1A HPT durability kit.

年底，我們獲得了 LEAP-1A HPT 耐用套件的認證。

Combined with the three prior durability enhancements that are performing well in the field, it's designed to increase LEAP time on wing by more than two-fold current levels and achieve parity with the CFM56's performance today.

結合先前在現場表現良好的三個耐用性增強功能，它的設計可將機翼上的 LEAP 時間增加兩倍以上，並達到與當今 CFM56 性能相當的水平。

Just this week, in fact, we shipped our first retrofit engines to customers with the new hardware.

事實上，就在本週，我們向客戶交付了第一批改裝引擎以及新硬體。

It's also easier to produce supporting our output trajectory going forward.

生產支持我們未來的輸出軌跡也更容易。

At the same time, we've advanced significant technology milestones that will propel GE Aerospace into the future.

同時，我們也取得了重大技術里程碑，將推動 GE 航空航太走向未來。

Our RISE program with CFM completed more than 250 tests on our way to developing a full-scale open-fan engine.

我們與 CFM 的 RISE 專案在開發全尺寸開式風扇發動機的過程中完成了 250 多項測試。

We recently announced that in collaboration with Boeing, NASA, and the Oak Ridge National Laboratory, we will model the integration of an open-fan engine design on an aircraft wing.

我們最近宣布，我們將與波音公司、美國太空總署和橡樹嶺國家實驗室合作，對開放式風扇發動機設計在飛機機翼上的整合進行建模。

And our defense team successfully demonstrated a hybrid electric propulsion system rated at 1 megawatt with the US Army.

我們的國防團隊與美國陸軍成功展示了額定功率為 1 兆瓦的混合電力推進系統。

This represents a meaningful increase in power generation, enabling us to advance hybrid electric propulsion applications.

這代表著發電量的顯著增加，使我們能夠推進混合電力推進應用。

But perhaps more important than what we accomplished in 2024 is how we did it.

但也許比我們在 2024 年所取得的成就更重要的是我們是如何做到的。

And my thanks this morning go out to our entire team for their unwavering commitment to delivering for our customers.

今天早上，我要感謝我們整個團隊對為客戶提供服務的堅定承諾。

GE Aerospace delivered a standout year financially with revenue up double digits, profit up $1.7 billion, and free cash flow up $1.3 billion.

GE航空航太公司今年的財務表現表現出色，營收成長了兩位數，利潤成長了17億美元，自由現金流成長了13億美元。

And we finished strong, surpassing our most recent guide.

我們的表現強勁，超過了我們最近的指南。

In the fourth quarter, robust demand continued.

第四季度，需求持續強勁。

Orders were up 46%, and revenue grew 16%, with double-digit growth in services and equipment for both orders and revenue.

訂單成長 46%，營收成長 16%，服務和設備訂單和收入均達到兩位數成長。

Profit was up nearly 50%, and EPS more than doubled.

利潤成長近 50%，每股收益成長一倍多。

Free cash flow was up over 20%, with conversion above 100%.

自由現金流成長超過 20%，轉換率超過 100%。

At Commercial Engines & Services, our fourth-quarter orders were up 50%, revenue was up 19%, and profit increased 44% while deliveries progressed.

在商用引擎和服務部門，我們第四季的訂單成長了 50%，營收成長了 19%，利潤成長了 44%，同時交付也取得了進展。

And for the full year, demand remained robust, with services orders up 30%, total revenue up double digits, and profit up 25% to $7.1 billion.

全年需求依然強勁，服務訂單成長 30%，總營收成長兩位數，利潤成長 25% 至 71 億美元。

In Defense & Propulsion Technologies, fourth-quarter orders were up 22%, and defense units nearly doubled sequentially.

在國防與推進技術領域，第四季訂單成長 22%，國防單位數量較上季成長近一倍。

For the full year, revenue was up 6% and profit increased 17% to $1.1 billion.

全年營收成長 6%，利潤成長 17%，達到 11 億美元。

Looking ahead to 2025, we're maintaining this momentum as we aim to deliver another year of substantial revenue, EPS, and cash growth.

展望 2025 年，我們將保持這一勢頭，因為我們的目標是在新的一年實現收入、每股盈餘和現金的大幅成長。

We expect departures growth of mid-single digits and increased military spending.

我們預計離職人數將出現中個位數成長，軍費開支也會增加。

This supports solid low double-digit revenue growth, including growth in CES and DPT.

這支持了穩定的低兩位數收入成長，包括 CES 和 DPT 的成長。

We expect profit in the range of $7.8 billion to $8.2 billion.

我們預計利潤在 78 億美元至 82 億美元之間。

This, combined with a lower share count, will translate to EPS in the range of $5.10 to $5.45, up 15% at the midpoint.

加上股票數量減少，每股收益將在 5.10 美元至 5.45 美元之間，中間值上漲 15%。

For free cash flow, we expect to generate $6.3 billion to $6.8 billion, with conversion remaining robust above 100%.

對於自由現金流，我們預計將產生 63 億至 68 億美元，且轉換率維持在 100% 以上。

And given the strength of our balance sheet, we're increasing our share repurchases to $7 billion and planning to raise our dividend by 30%, subject, of course, to Board approval.

鑑於我們資產負債表的實力，我們將股票回購增加到 70 億美元，並計劃將股息提高 30%，當然，這需要董事會的批准。

Overall, GE Aerospace is, I believe, an exceptional franchise with a tremendous financial profile.

總的來說，我相信通用電氣航空航太公司是一家擁有巨大財務狀況的卓越特許經營公司。

Stepping back, between 2023 and 2025, taking the midpoint of our guide, we expect to grow profit $2.5 billion and free cash flow nearly $2 billion over this two-year period.

退一步來說，從 2023 年到 2025 年，以我們指南的中點為基準，我們預計在這兩年期間利潤將增長 25 億美元，自由現金流將增長近 20 億美元。

Today, we're focused on keeping our customers' fleets flying and delivering on our new engine backlog.

今天，我們專注於保持客戶機隊的飛行並交付我們的新引擎積壓訂單。

Our team is using FLIGHT DECK to tackle supply chain constraints head on.

我們的團隊正在使用 FLIGHT DECK 來解決供應鏈的限制。

From the first half to the second half of 2024, we delivered meaningful improvement as material inputs increased 26% across our priority supplier sites.

從 2024 年上半年到下半年，我們實現了有意義的改進，我們的優先供應商地點的材料投入增加了 26%。

This, in turn, supported CES services revenue growth of 17% and engine unit growth of 18%, with defense and commercial both up double digits, including LEAP up 12%.

這反過來又支持了 CES 服務收入成長 17% 和發動機單位成長 18%，國防和商業領域均實現兩位數成長，其中 LEAP 成長 12%。

We're encouraged by our progress more recently in the fourth quarter, where CES services revenue increased 12% year over year, supported by expanded shop visit workscope and spare parts growth.

我們對第四季度最近的進展感到鼓舞，在車間參觀工作範圍擴大和備件增長的支持下，CES 服務收入同比增長 12%。

But this was lighter than we expected due to lower internal shop visit volume, given material constraints.

但由於材料限制，內部商店參觀量較低，因此這個數字比我們預期的要輕。

Total engine units improved up 3%, with defense up 20%.

引擎總數提高了 3%，防禦能力提高了 20%。

But commercial was roughly flat, with LEAP down 5%.

但商業廣告大致持平，其中 LEAP 下降了 5%。

We'll need to drive further sustainable improvements to meet '25's demand, and this is exactly where FLIGHT DECK is so important.

我們需要推動進一步的永續改進，以滿足 25 世紀的需求，而這正是飛行甲板如此重要的地方。

Earlier last year, our priority suppliers shipped only half of their committed targets to us.

去年早些時候，我們的優先供應商只向我們交付了其承諾目標的一半。

Today, they're shipping over 90% of the committed volume.

如今，他們的出貨量已超過承諾數量的 90%。

At a recent joint kaizen with a priority supplier, we focused on eliminating waste, achieving a 50% increase in output, 50%.

在最近與優先供應商的共同改善中，我們專注於消除浪費，實現了產量增加 50%、50%。

And throughout 2024, we deployed over 550 of our supply chain and engineering resources into that same supply base, demonstrating that we're at our best when we're operating as one team.

在整個 2024 年，我們將超過 550 個供應鏈和工程資源部署到同一個供應基地，這表明我們作為一個團隊運作時處於最佳狀態。

Building off this momentum, we're bringing together our engineering and supply chain teams into one new organization, Technology & Operations, which will be led by Mohamed Ali.

借助這一勢頭，我們將工程和供應鏈團隊整合到一個新的組織「技術與營運」中，該組織將由穆罕默德·阿里領導。

With shared accountability across the full value chain, this cross-functional team will enable faster problem solving to help improve deliveries.

透過整個價值鏈的共同責任，這個跨職能團隊將能夠更快地解決問題，從而幫助改善交付。

These actions, combined with our close alignment on demand schedules, will enable higher material inputs in 2025 and, importantly, beyond.

這些行動，再加上我們與需求計畫的密切配合，將在 2025 年甚至更遠的將來實現更高的材料投入。

Finally, we've expanded LEAP aftermarket capacity by approximately 40% in 2024.

最後，我們在 2024 年將 LEAP 售後市場產能擴大了約 40%。

This will support the growing fleet of 3,300 LEAP-powered aircraft with now 10,000 engines in backlog.

這將為不斷增長的 3,300 架 LEAP 動力飛機機隊提供支持，目前積壓的發動機將有 10,000 架。

Here's how.

方法如下。

First, we're eliminating waste and reducing turnaround time using FLIGHT DECK.

首先，我們使用飛行甲板消除浪費並減少週轉時間。

For example, our on-wing support team redesigned the LEAP engine flow, increasing output by 50% for the year.

例如，我們的機翼支援團隊重新設計了 LEAP 引擎流程，使當年的產量增加了 50%。

This contributed to LEAP internal shop visit growth of more than 20% in the fourth quarter alone.

這使得 LEAP 僅在第四季度內部店鋪訪問量增長就超過 20%。

Second, we're investing more than $1 billion in our internal MRO facilities over the next five years.

其次，未來五年我們將在內部 MRO 設施上投資超過 10 億美元。

We're growing our repair technologies, which will help lower the cost of ownership and provide faster turnaround times.

我們正在發展我們的維修技術，這將有助於降低擁有成本並提供更快的周轉時間。

Our recently opened Services Technology Acceleration Center here in Ohio will be a key enabler in deploying repairs across our global MRO network.

我們最近在俄亥俄州開設的服務技術加速中心將成為在我們的全球 MRO 網路中部署維修的關鍵推動者。

And third, we're strengthening our LEAP third-party network.

第三，我們正在加強我們的 LEAP 第三方網路。

Last year, five premier MROs completed around 10% of total LEAP shop visits.

去年，五家主要的 MRO 完成了 LEAP 商店總訪問量的約 10%。

This is critical experience for them as their volume increases further in 2025.

這對他們來說是至關重要的經驗，因為他們的數量將在 2025 年進一步增加。

Overall, we're entering 2025 with a stronger foundation to service and deliver our engines faster with the highest possible levels of safety and quality.

總體而言，進入 2025 年，我們將擁有更堅實的基礎，能夠以盡可能高的安全性和品質水平更快地服務和交付我們的引擎。

Turning to slide 7, demand for our services and products remains robust, highlighted by orders up 46% in the fourth quarter.

轉向投影片 7，對我們服務和產品的需求依然強勁，第四季訂單成長 46% 突顯了這一點。

At CES and narrow-bodies, El Al Israeli Airlines confirmed its commitment for 20 737 MAXs with LEAP-1B engines underwing.

在 CES 和窄體飛機上，以色列航空公司確認了其購買 20 架 737 MAX 飛機的承諾，這些飛機在翼下配備 LEAP-1B 發動機。

We've also extended service contracts, including a 10-year engine maintenance agreement with flydubai for their CFM56-powered aircraft.

我們還延長了服務合同，包括與迪拜航空為其 CFM56 動力飛機簽訂了為期 10 年的發動機維護協議。

And notably, the Airbus 321XLR, powered by our LEAP-1A engines, completed its inaugural commercial long-haul flight.

值得注意的是，由我們的 LEAP-1A 發動機提供動力的空中巴士 321XLR 完成了其首次商業長途飛行。

Our engines are providing airlines with greater route flexibility and overall operational efficiency.

我們的引擎為航空公司提供了更大的航線靈活性和整體營運效率。

In wide-bodies, Royal Jordanian announced an order for 18 GEnx-1Bs, plus spares to power their expanded Boeing 787-9 fleet.

在寬體客機方面，約旦皇家航空宣布訂購 18 架 GEnx-1B 以及為其擴大的波音 787-9 機隊提供動力的備件。

And China Airlines also announced an agreement for 10 Boeing 777-9s with the GE9X under wing.

中華航空也宣布與 GE9X 簽訂購買 10 架波音 777-9 的協議。

In DPT, we're building on our leading defense programs.

在 DPT 中，我們正在建立我們領先的防禦計劃。

We received orders under a contract with the US Army valued up to $1.1 billion for the continued production of T700 engines through 2029.

我們收到了與美國陸軍簽訂的價值高達 11 億美元的合約訂單，將在 2029 年之前繼續生產 T700 引擎。

The new T700s will power the Sikorsky H-60, the Bell H-1, and the Boeing AH-64 platforms.

新型 T700 將為西科斯基 H-60、貝爾 H-1 和波音 AH-64 平台提供動力。

In addition to expanding our extensive install base, we're enhancing our customer solutions.

除了擴大我們廣泛的安裝基礎之外，我們還在增強我們的客戶解決方案。

We signed an agreement to acquire Northstar Aerospace, a leading manufacturer of mission-critical gears and shafts.

我們簽署了收購 Northstar Aerospace 的協議，該公司是關鍵任務齒輪和軸的領先製造商。

Northstar will be highly complementary to our Avio Aero business, providing a US-based presence in this market and adding new programs and capabilities to deliver complex flight-critical parts.

Northstar 將與我們的 Avio Aero 業務高度互補，在該市場提供美國業務，並增加新的項目和能力來提供複雜的飛行關鍵部件。

Stepping back, I couldn't be prouder about what we're building as GE Aerospace as we advance flight for today, tomorrow, and the future.

退一步來說，當我們推動今天、明天和未來的飛行時，我對 GE 航空航太公司正在建立的事業感到無比自豪。

Rahul, over to you.

拉胡爾，交給你了。

Thank you, Larry.

謝謝你，拉里。

Good morning, everyone.

大家早安。

We closed out 2024 with another strong quarter.

我們以又一個強勁的季度結束了 2024 年。

Orders were up 46%, with significant demand for both services and equipment.

訂單增加了 46%，對服務和設備的需求旺盛。

Revenue was up 16%, with growth in CES and DPT.

隨著 CES 和 DPT 的成長，營收成長了 16%。

Profit was $2 billion, up 49%, driven by services volume, favorable mix, and price.

在服務量、有利的組合和價格的推動下，利潤為 20 億美元，成長 49%。

Margins were up 450 basis points to 20.1%.

利潤率上升 450 個基點，達到 20.1%。

EPS of $1.32 more than doubled from profit growth and a reduced tax rate.

由於利潤成長和稅率降低，每股收益增加了一倍多，達到 1.32 美元。

Free cash flow was $1.5 billion, up 21% from higher earnings.

自由現金流為 15 億美元，因獲利成長而成長 21%。

Working capital was a source, primarily from long-term service contract billings.

營運資金是一個來源，主要來自長期服務合約帳單。

While accounts receivables increased, day sales outstanding were down five days year over year.

儘管應收帳款增加，但應收帳款週轉天數比去年同期下降了五天。

Given the ongoing material availability challenges, inventory increased, although at a lower rate than prior quarters.

鑑於持續的材料供應挑戰，庫存增加，但增幅低於前幾個季度。

For the year, orders were up 32%, including services orders up 30%.

今年訂單成長 32%，其中服務訂單成長 30%。

Revenue was up 10%, with growth in both segments.

收入成長了 10%，兩個細分市場都有成長。

Profit increased 30% to $7.3 billion, with margins expanding 330 basis points to 20.7%, driven by commercial services.

在商業服務的推動下，利潤成長 30%，達到 73 億美元，利潤率成長 330 個基點，達到 20.7%。

EPS increased 56% to $4.60 from significant profit growth, a lower tax rate, and the absence of preferred dividend.

由於利潤顯著增長、稅率降低以及優先股股息的取消，每股收益增長了 56%，達到 4.60 美元。

Free cash flow was up almost 30% to $6.1 billion, with conversion over 120%.

自由現金流成長近 30%，達到 61 億美元，轉換率超過 120%。

Taken together, we delivered significant growth across all key metrics, both in the quarter and the year.

總的來說，我們在本季和本年度的所有關鍵指標上均實現了顯著成長。

Looking closer at our businesses, starting with CES.

從 CES 開始，更仔細地審視我們的業務。

In the quarter, orders were up 50%, as services demand remained robust while equipment accelerated.

本季度，由於服務需求依然強勁，而設備需求加速成長，訂單成長了 50%。

Our recent wins build on our backlog of $154 billion, with about 90% of that backlog in services.

我們最近的勝利建立在我們 1,540 億美元的積壓訂單之上，其中約 90% 是服務領域的積壓訂單。

Revenue was up 19%, with services up 12%, driven by shop visit revenue, higher spare parts, and price.

在商店訪問收入、更高的備件和價格的推動下，收入增長了 19%，其中服務增長了 12%。

Internal shop visit revenue, representing around 60% of services revenue, grew double digits.

內部商店訪問收入約佔服務收入的 60%，成長了兩位數。

Increased work scopes, higher pricing, and engine mix more than offset shop visit volume that was down 3% due to material constraints.

工作範圍的擴大、定價的提高和引擎的組合足以抵消由於材料限製而導致的車間參觀量下降 3% 的影響。

Spare parts revenue, representing roughly the other 40%, was up from higher volume and price.

備件收入約佔另外 40%，因銷售量和價格上漲而成長。

Equipment grew 38%.

設備成長38%。

While we made progress, supply chain constraints impacted total deliveries, down 2%, including LEAP, down 5%.

雖然我們取得了進展，但供應鏈限制影響了總交付量，下降了 2%，其中 LEAP 下降了 5%。

For the year, LEAP deliveries were down 10%, in line with our latest expectations.

今年，LEAP 交付量下降了 10%，符合我們的最新預期。

Lower volume was more than offset by customer mix and price.

銷售下降被客戶結構和價格所抵消。

In addition, given our growing fleets with high utilization, we caught up on spare engine deliveries to support airline fleet stability.

此外，鑑於我們的機隊不斷增長且利用率較高，我們趕上了備用發動機的交付，以支持航空公司機隊的穩定性。

Although the spare engine ratio was elevated in the fourth quarter, overall LEAP life of program ratio through 2024 remains in low double digits.

儘管備用引擎比率在第四季度有所提高，但到 2024 年的整體 LEAP 計畫壽命比率仍處於較低的兩位數。

Profit was $2.2 billion, up 44%, as spare parts volume, increased shop visit workscope, mix, and price, more than offset inflation and investments.

利潤為 22 億美元，成長 44%，因為備件數量、車間參觀工作範圍、組合和價格的增加，足以抵消通貨膨脹和投資。

Margins expanded 490 basis points to 28.2%.

利潤率擴大 490 個基點至 28.2%。

Overall, CES delivered strong full-year results, with orders up 38%, revenue up 13%, and profit growing 25% to $7.1 billion.

整體而言，CES 全年業績強勁，訂單成長 38%，營收成長 13%，利潤成長 25% 至 71 億美元。

Margins expanded 250 basis points to 26.2%.

利潤率擴大 250 個基點至 26.2%。

Moving to DPT, orders were up 22%, primarily driven by Defense and Systems.

轉向 DPT，訂單增加了 22%，主要由國防和系統推動。

Demand remains strong here as well, with defense book-to-bill of 1.2x for the quarter and the full year.

這裡的需求也依然強勁，本季和全年的國防訂單出貨比為 1.2 倍。

Our backlog for the segment is now at $18 billion, up more than $1.5 billion year over year.

目前，我們該領域的積壓訂單已達 180 億美元，年增超過 15 億美元。

Revenue grew 4%.

收入增長 4%。

Defense & Systems revenue was up 6%, driven by higher engine deliveries and price, partially offset by lower services.

受發動機交付量和價格上漲的推動，國防與系統收入增長了 6%，但部分被服務減少所抵消。

Defense units were up 20% year over year, with more than 90% quarter over quarter.

國防單位較去年同期成長 20%，較上季成長超過 90%。

Propulsion & Additive Technologies, or PAT, grew 2%, as lower commercial volume at Avio was more than offset by growth in other PAT businesses.

推進與積層技術 (PAT) 成長了 2%，因為 Avio 商業銷量的下降被其他 PAT 業務的成長所抵消。

Profit was up 2%, driven by improved pricing and productivity, partially offset by investments in next-gen engines and inflation.

由於定價和生產率提高，利潤增長了 2%，但部分被下一代引擎投資和通貨膨脹所抵消。

Margins were down 20 basis points.

利潤率下降了 20 個基點。

Overall, a strong finish, as full-year orders were up 10%, revenue grew 6%, and profit was up 17% to $1.1 billion, with margin expansion of 110 basis points.

整體而言，業績強勁，全年訂單成長 10%，營收成長 6%，利潤成長 17% 至 11 億美元，利潤率擴大 110 個基點。

A moment on Corporate.

關於企業的片刻。

We made substantial progress to ensure our operations reflect the needs of GE Aerospace as a standalone company.

我們在確保我們的營運能夠反映 GE 航空航太公司作為獨立公司的需求方面取得了實質進展。

Corporate cost, including eliminations, was about $860 million for the year.

該年度公司成本（包括沖銷在內）約為 8.6 億美元。

Eliminations increased by $100 million to approximately $470 million from higher internal volume in PAT.

由於 PAT 內部容量增加，沖銷額增加了 1 億美元，達到約 4.7 億美元。

Excluding eliminations, cost was down over a third to roughly $400 million, driven by lower functional expenses and higher interest income.

不包括沖銷在內，由於職能支出減少和利息收入增加，成本下降了三分之一以上，約 4 億美元。

We also fully exited our remaining stake in GE Healthcare this quarter.

本季我們也完全退出了 GE Healthcare 的剩餘股份。

And for the year, we returned more than 100% of our free cash flow to our shareholders, including $5 billion of share buyback and a dividend of around 30% of net income.

今年，我們將超過 100% 的自由現金流返還給股東，其中包括 50 億美元的股票回購和約佔淨利潤 30% 的股息。

Based on the strength of our performance and balance sheet, GE Aerospace is well positioned to compound shareholder returns for the long term.

基於我們的業績和資產負債表的實力，GE航空航太公司處於有利地位，可以實現股東的長期回報複合。

Switching to our 2025 guide.

切換到我們的 2025 年指南。

Starting with CES, we expect mid-teens revenue growth for the segment.

從 CES 開始，我們預計該領域的營收將出現十幾歲左右的成長。

We are now expecting services to be up low-double digits to mid-teens, up from our prior view of low-double digits.

我們現在預計服務將從低兩位數成長到中位數，高於我們先前對低兩位數的看法。

At the midpoint, we expect internal shop visit revenue to be up from higher workscope, improved pricing, and high single-digit shop visit volume growth, which is pushed to the right from 2024.

在中點，我們預計內部商店訪問收入將因工作範圍的擴大、定價的改善以及商店訪問量的高單位數增長而增長，從 2024 年開始向右推。

We continue to expect low double-digit spare parts revenue growth from mid-single-digit air traffic growth and pricing.

我們繼續預計，空中交通量和定價將實現中個位數的成長，備件收入將實現兩位數的低成長。

We expect equipment up high teens from growth in engine volume, including LEAP deliveries up 15% to 20% and pricing, more than offsetting negative engine mix.

我們預計設備數量將因引擎銷售的成長而成長，包括 LEAP 交付量增加 15% 至 20% 和定價，這將足以抵消引擎組合的負面影響。

We expect $7.6 billion to $7.9 billion of profit at CES, reflecting the benefit of services growth.

我們預計 CES 的利潤將達到 76 億至 79 億美元，反映出服務成長的好處。

This will be partially offset by the impact from increased R&D investments and higher GE9X deliveries in the second half of the year.

這將被下半年研發投資增加和 GE9X 交付量增加的影響部分抵消。

We also expect a lower spare engine ratio.

我們也預計備用引擎比率會降低。

In DPT, we expect mid- to high-single digits revenue growth with increased defense units and profit in the range of $1.1 billion to $1.3 billion.

在 DPT 領域，我們預計隨著國防單位的增加，營收將實現中高個位數成長，利潤將在 11 億美元至 13 億美元之間。

Higher defense deliveries are partially offset by self-funded investments in the first half.

上半年國防交付量的增加被自籌資金部分抵銷。

Corporate costs are expected to be less than $1 billion.

企業成本預計低於 10 億美元。

Eliminations are expected to grow as internal PAT volume grows.

隨著內部 PAT 數量的增長，預計消除量也會增加。

In total, we expect another year of low double-digit revenue growth for the company, with profit in the range of $7.8 billion to $8.2 billion, up about $750 million or 10% at the midpoint over 2024.

總體而言，我們預計該公司的營收將再次實現兩位數的低成長，利潤在 78 億美元至 82 億美元之間，比 2024 年中位數成長約 7.5 億美元，即 10%。

Turning to slide 12, we expect EPS to be in the range of $5.10 to $5.45, up roughly 15% at the midpoint.

轉向投影片 12，我們預計每股收益將在 5.10 美元至 5.45 美元之間，中間值將上漲約 15%。

About 80% of the improvement will be from higher profit.

大約80%的改善將來自更高的利潤。

The balance will come through a reduction in the tax rate, which is expected to improve to below 20%, and the benefit from share repurchases, including the $5 billion executed in 2024 and an additional $7 billion expected in 2025.

餘額將透過稅率降低（預計將提高至 20% 以下）以及股票回購的收益來實現，其中包括 2024 年執行的 50 億美元和預計 2025 年額外執行的 70 億美元。

We expect to generate $6.3 billion to $6.8 billion of free cash flow, with year-over-year growth primarily from higher earnings.

我們預計將產生 63 億至 68 億美元的自由現金流，年成長主要來自收益的增加。

Contributions from working capital and AD&A combined year over year will be more than offset by higher CapEx and cash tax payments.

營運資本和 AD&A 的同比貢獻將被更高的資本支出和現金稅支付所抵消。

Overall, we expect another year of conversion that is solidly above 100%.

總體而言，我們預計又一年的轉換率將穩定在 100% 以上。

Taken together, GE Aerospace is poised for another year of growth ahead.

總而言之，通用電氣航空航太公司預計將在未來一年實現成長。

With that, Larry, I'll turn it back to you.

拉里，我會把它轉回給你。

Perfect.

完美的。

Thank you. 2024 clearly was a strong first year for us as GE Aerospace.

謝謝。對 GE 航空航太公司來說，2024 年顯然是強勁的第一年。

We grew revenue, earnings, and cash significantly, along with returning over $6 billion to shareholders.

我們的收入、獲利和現金顯著成長，同時向股東返還超過 60 億美元。

That performance was underpinned by our competitive advantages.

我們的競爭優勢支撐了這項表現。

Our platforms are preferred by customers across the narrow-body, wide-body, and defense sectors.

我們的平台深受窄體、寬體和國防部門客戶的青睞。

Our industry-leading services and technologies provide the highest levels of operational reliability, including greater efficiency, time on wing, and faster turnaround times.

我們領先業界的服務和技術提供最高水準的營運可靠性，包括更高的效率、飛行時間和更快的周轉時間。

At the core of everything we do is safety, quality delivery -- in that order.

我們所做的一切的核心是安全、高品質的交付——按這個順序。

And we're focused on unrivaled customer service and flight support across the industry's most extensive install base with 70,000 engines.

我們專注於為擁有 70,000 台引擎的業界最廣泛的安裝基地提供無與倫比的客戶服務和飛行支援。

Our breakthrough innovations in both commercial and defense paved the way for more sustainable flight.

我們在商業和國防領域的突破性創新為更永續的飛行鋪平了道路。

And FLIGHT DECK, which connects our strategy to our results, enables us to deliver and create exceptional value for our customers and our shareholders.

FLIGHT DECK 將我們的策略與結果連結起來，使我們能夠為我們的客戶和股東提供和創造卓越的價值。

We believe our path forward is clear.

我們相信我們的前進道路是明確的。

We're well positioned to deliver another year of substantial growth and deploy over 100% of our free cash flow to shareholders.

我們完全有能力實現另一個大幅成長，並將 100% 以上的自由現金流分配給股東。

Before we wrap our prepared remarks, I'd like to take a moment to express our support for all of those impacted by the fires in Southern California.

在我們結束準備好的演講之前，我想花一點時間向所有受南加州火災影響的人們表示支持。

Seeing our CF6, CFM56, and T700 engines powering many of the planes battling the fires, we feel a deep connection to our commitment to safety and hope that those fires can be contained soon.

看到我們的 CF6、CFM56 和 T700 發動機為許多與火災作鬥爭的飛機提供動力，我們對我們對安全的承諾有著深刻的聯繫，並希望這些火災能夠盡快得到遏制。

Blaire, shall we go to Q&A?

布萊爾，我們可以進行問答嗎？

Before we open the line, I'd ask everyone in the queue to consider your fellow analysts and ask one question so we can get to as many people as possible.

在我們開始排隊之前，我會要求隊列中的每個人考慮您的分析師同事並提出一個問題，以便我們可以接觸到盡可能多的人。

Liz, can you please open the line?

LZ，可以幫我開電話嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Scott Deuschle, Deutsche Bank.

（操作員指示）Scott Deuschle，德意志銀行。

Hey.

嘿。

Good morning.

早安.

Rahul, can you refresh us on what the 2025 guide is assuming with respect to LEAP OE profitability?

Rahul，您能否向我們介紹一下 2025 年指南對 LEAP OE 獲利能力的假設？

And then, when LEAP OE achieves breakeven, do you foresee the profit trajectory flatlining from there?

然後，當 LEAP OE 達到損益兩平時，您是否預期利潤軌跡會從此趨於平穩？

Or is it reasonable to think that LEAP OE could be a profit center in its own right as time goes on and you benefit from some of these recent pricing gains and operational efficiency initiatives?

或者，隨著時間的推移，LEAP OE 本身可能會成為一個利潤中心，並且您會從最近的一些定價收益和營運效率措施中受益，這樣的想法是否合理？

Thank you.

謝謝。

Yeah.

是的。

Absolutely, Scott.

當然，斯科特。

So let me start and Larry can add.

那麼就讓我開始吧，拉里可以補充。

Obviously, it's been a really good year for LEAP overall.

顯然，總體而言，今年對 LEAP 來說是非常好的一年。

I can start with answering your question, and Larry can comment on the operational improvements that we've driven here in LEAP.

我可以先回答您的問題，Larry 可以評論我們在 LEAP 中推動的營運改善。

So first, Scott, it was a milestone year for LEAP.

首先，Scott，今年對 LEAP 來說是個具有里程碑意義的一年。

LEAP services became profitable in 2024, and the program becomes breakeven in 2025, with OE following a year later in 2026.

LEAP 服務於 2024 年實現盈利，該計劃於 2025 年實現盈虧平衡，一年後的 OE 計劃於 2026 年實現盈虧平衡。

So that was our prior expectation that continues to be our expectation today.

這是我們之前的期望，現在仍然是我們的期望。

And as we look at LEAP, how it performed during the year, the profitability for the program tended to be better than our initial expectations, from higher external spare parts volume, better pricing, lower warranty expenses as some of those fixtures are going in, and more shop visits than we had initially expected.

當我們看看 LEAP 在這一年中的表現時，該計劃的盈利能力往往比我們最初的預期要好，因為外部備件數量增加、定價更好、保固費用降低（因為其中一些固定裝置投入使用），以及比我們最初預期的更多的商店訪問。

So that's our expectation.

這就是我們的期望。

And the key milestone for 2025 is that our profitability and margins for the program are getting better from increasing shop visits and higher external spare parts volume.

2025 年的關鍵里程碑是，我們的獲利能力和利潤率因商店訪問量的增加和外部備件數量的增加而變得更好。

And the OE performance improves despite more engines that we're going to ship.

儘管我們將運送更多的發動機，但原廠性能仍會提高。

And just to comment on the external services volume, in 2024, shop visits -- external shop visits were just north of 10%, and we expect that to increase to 15% in 2025.

就外部服務量而言，2024 年，商店訪問量——外部商店訪問量略高於 10%，我們預計到 2025 年將增加到 15%。

And on a sold basis, the shop visits that we have sold, about 25% of the shop visits are non-GE/Safran shop visits, and that will help future profitability.

在銷售基礎上，我們已銷售的商店訪問量中，約 25% 的商店訪問量是非 GE/賽峰商店訪問量，這將有助於未來的盈利能力。

So overall, the program is on the right trajectory.

總的來說，該計劃走在正確的軌道上。

And as the program kind of breaks even this year, OE becomes profitable next year, I think the services growth trajectory that the program has with the installed base is just going to power the program.

隨著該計劃今年實現收支平衡，OE 明年將實現盈利，我認為該計劃與安裝基礎的服務成長軌跡將為該計劃提供動力。

So we expected LEAP to be kind of in CFM56 levels by 2028.

因此，我們預計 LEAP 到 2028 年將達到 CFM56 水準。

Maybe CFM is performing a little bit better.

也許 CFM 的表現好一些。

But that's the trajectory that the program is on that, sometime in -- late towards the end part of this decade, LEAP and CFM are delivering the same amount of profit for the company.

但這就是該計劃的發展軌跡，在本十年末的某個時候，LEAP 和 CFM 將為公司帶來相同數量的利潤。

Larry, anything you want to add here?

拉里，你想在這裡補充什麼嗎？

I think you've covered the landscape there.

我想你已經了解那裡的風景了。

Clearly, much of what we've talked about, Scott, just already this morning with respect to managing the supply base sets us up, particularly as we think about the ramps with LEAP.

顯然，斯科特，我們今天早上討論的有關管理供應基地的大部分內容都為我們奠定了基礎，特別是當我們考慮 LEAP 的坡道時。

We would expect LEAP new units to be up 15% to 20% this year, more to come after that.

我們預計 LEAP 新單位今年將上漲 15% 至 20%，此後還會上漲。

So that installed base growth, that aftermarket opportunity that Rahul was really talking about, is really a function of what we're doing currently with the installed base -- the supply base.

因此，安裝基礎的成長，拉胡爾真正談論的售後市場機會，實際上是我們目前在安裝基礎（供應基礎）上所做的事情的一個功能。

That, of course, coupled with the progress that we made with the HPT at the end of the year on the LEAP-1A sets us up, I think, even more strongly in the marketplace.

當然，我認為，再加上年底我們在 LEAP-1A 上的 HPT 方面取得的進展，使我們在市場上更加強大。

And we know the engine's performing well in the market.

我們知道該引擎在市場上表現良好。

I think we increased our share of cycles 300 basis points in 2024.

我認為 2024 年我們將週期份額增加了 300 個基點。

So we have a lot of good things in front of us.

所以我們面前有很多美好的事情。

It's still, in many respects, early days for LEAP.

從許多方面來看，LEAP 仍處於早期階段。

Myles Walton, Wolfe Research.

邁爾斯·沃爾頓，沃爾夫研究中心。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Good morning.

早安.

Congrats, Blaire.

恭喜，布萊爾。

Well deserved.

當之無愧。

At the start of '24, you were looking for about $1 billion of operating profit growth in '25 versus 2024.

24 年初，您預計 25 年營業利潤將比 2024 年成長約 10 億美元。

The new guidance, Rahul, as you mentioned, is $750 million of growth.

正如您所提到的，拉胡爾，新的指導方針是成長 7.5 億美元。

I'm not oblivious to the fact that you blew away the 2024 base number.

我並沒有忘記你已經超越了 2024 年基數這一事實。

But curious, just as you look at that sequential climb to '25, what in the base profit of '24 didn't translate into '25?

但令人好奇的是，正如您看到連續攀升至 25 年一樣，'24 的基本利潤中有哪些內容沒有轉化為 '25？

Thanks.

謝謝。

So Myles, if you step back and you look at the numbers that you alluded to, we were sitting in March of 2024 expecting to get to about $7.2 billion to $7.3 billion of profit by the end of 2025.

所以，邁爾斯，如果你退後一步，看看你提到的數字，我們在 2024 年 3 月預計到 2025 年底將實現約 72 億至 73 億美元的利潤。

And that was up quite a bit -- $1.5 billion to $1.6 billion from where we ended 2023.

與 2023 年底相比，這一數字成長了 15 億至 16 億美元。

Now, as we sit here today, as Larry said in his prepared remarks, we're going to add about $2.5 billion of profit in the two-year period.

現在，正如拉里在他準備好的演講中所說，我們今天坐在這裡，我們將在兩年內增加約 25 億美元的利潤。

So that's about a third better than what we thought just nine months ago.

因此，這比我們九個月前的預期要好大約三分之一。

So the business is performing extremely well.

因此，該業務的表現非常好。

Now, as you think about the 2025 profit, call it $800 million year over year at midpoint of $750 million and $1 billion dollars at the high end, so first, we spoke about the corporate eliminations up about $100 million from higher PAT volume.

現在，當你考慮2025 年的利潤時，將其稱為同比8 億美元，中位數為7.5 億美元，高端為10 億美元，所以首先，我們討論了企業從較高的PAT 數量中扣除的約1 億美元。

So that's one thing, but put that aside.

所以這是一回事，但先把它放在一邊。

We expect CES profit to be up about $700 million at the midpoint.

我們預計 CES 利潤中位數將成長約 7 億美元。

And the biggest driver of profit growth within CES is the drop through that we're getting from the services revenue that we expect to be up about $3 billion up year over year at the midpoint of the guide.

CES 利潤成長的最大推動力是我們從服務收入中獲得的下降，我們預計按指南中點計算，服務收入將年增約 30 億美元。

And we expect services margins to be flat, despite with LEAP getting to be a greater share of that services revenue as other things -- productivity, pricing -- all that is offsetting the LEAP mix impact.

我們預計服務利潤率將持平，儘管 LEAP 在服務收入中所佔的份額越來越大，而其他因素（生產力、定價）則抵消了 LEAP 組合的影響。

And to offset the services within CES will be the impact from OE, about split 50-50 between the R&D step-up and the increase in GE9X shipments.

OE 的影響將抵銷 CES 內的服務，研發力度的加大和 GE9X 出貨量的增加約各佔 50-50。

We expect GE9X to be about a couple of hundred million dollars headwind in 2025 as we ramp the number of engines that we're shipping.

隨著我們增加出貨的引擎數量，我們預計 GE9X 到 2025 年將帶來約幾億美元的阻力。

And the spare engine ratio is expected to come down gradually as well here in '25.

預計 25 年備用引擎比例也將逐漸下降。

So that's the CES landscape.

這就是 CES 的情況。

And in DPT, given the growth in backlog, $1.5 billion, so call it close to about 10% backlog growth in 2024, we expect mid to high single-digit revenue growth.

在 DPT 方面，鑑於積壓訂單成長 15 億美元，即 2024 年積壓訂​​單成長接近 10% 左右，我們預計營收將實現中高個位數成長。

That's going to translate into profit and with margins expanding about 70 basis points at the midpoint of the guide.

這將轉化為利潤，利潤率在指南中點擴大約 70 個基點。

So overall, should be a good year.

所以總的來說，應該是美好的一年。

And to get to the high end of $1 billion that you referenced, I think we just need services to be a little bit better and perform at the high end of the guidance.

為了達到您提到的 10 億美元的高端，我認為我們只需要提供更好的服務並在指導的高端執行。

Ron Epstein, Bank of America.

羅恩愛潑斯坦，美國銀行。

Good morning.

早安.

Question for you on the GE9X.

關於 GE9X 的問題。

When we think about that, I mean, 777X is back in flight test.

當我們想到這一點時，我的意思是，777X 又回到了飛行測試中。

Are there other opportunities for that engine beyond the 777X?

除了 777X 之外，該引擎還有其他機會嗎？

Ron, I would say that, at this point in time, we're fully focused on helping our friends in Seattle get this plane launched.

羅恩，我想說，此時此刻，我們完全專注於幫助西雅圖的朋友啟動這架飛機。

So we're obviously proud to be under wing.

因此，我們顯然為能夠獲得庇護而感到自豪。

We think it's going to be a great wide-body program over time.

我們認為隨著時間的推移，這將成為一個出色的寬體項目。

Delighted to see, as you mentioned, flight testing resume.

正如您所提到的，很高興看到飛行測試恢復。

We've started to ship engines to Boeing.

我們已經開始向波音公司運送引擎。

So we've got work to do clearly, but the customer feedback relative to that aircraft and that engine continues to be quite strong.

因此，我們還有很多工作要做，但客戶對飛機和引擎的回饋仍然非常強烈。

We've got nearly, what, 1,000 engines now in backlog.

我們現在有將近 1,000 台引擎積壓。

And I'd like to think that with the delays, we've made good use of that time with respect to just additional testing, probably going to end up being the most tested engine in our history.

我想，由於延遲，我們很好地利用了這段時間進行額外的測試，最終可能會成為我們歷史上經過最多測試的引擎。

We're approaching 2,500 cycles.

我們已接近 2,500 個週期。

In fact, we've got a second dust test engine, critical and harsh and hot environments underway.

事實上，我們已經有了第二台灰塵測試發動機，正在關鍵、惡劣和炎熱的環境中進行。

And we're already on our second iteration of HPT blades, let alone the CMC nozzle designs.

我們已經在進行 HPT 葉片的第二次迭代，更不用說 CMC 噴嘴設計了。

So we're focused on that at the moment, but excited about that backlog and, ultimately, EIS.

因此，我們目前專注於此，但對積壓的訂單以及最終的 EIS 感到興奮。

Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies.

希拉·卡哈奧格魯，杰弗里斯。

Good morning, Larry and Rahul, and congrats, Blaire.

早安，拉里和拉胡爾，恭喜布萊爾。

I wanted to focus back on CES margins in Q4, just given the performance was so stellar at 28%.

我想重新關注 CES 第四季的利潤率，因為 28% 的表現非常出色。

And even on slower expected services growth, given the internal shop visit volume hasn't quite turned the corner.

即使預期服務成長放緩，但考慮到內部商店客流量尚未完全改善。

So when we think about the 2025 outlook, and Rahul, I know you talked about this a little bit, services, you raised the guidance here from just one month ago to low to mid-teens.

因此，當我們思考 2025 年的前景時，拉胡爾，我知道您談到了服務業這一問題，您將這裡的指導意見從一個月前提高到了十幾歲左右。

Can you talk about the moving pieces as you think about just the mix of spares, parts versus internal, and how the different engines are contributing to that?

當您考慮備件、零件與內部零件的組合以及不同的引擎如何對此做出貢獻時，您能談談移動部件嗎？

And maybe if you could just talk about the cadence throughout the year as well.

也許您也可以談談全年的節奏。

All right.

好的。

So Sheila, let me start, and obviously, if I don't hit anything, come back and make sure we answer the question.

希拉，讓我開始吧，顯然，如果我沒有擊中任何內容，請回來確保我們回答問題。

CES had a good quarter, better than what we had expected.

CES 的季度表現不錯，超出了我們的預期。

Favorable services mix, Sheila, as you mentioned, the shop visit volume wasn't exactly where we needed to be, but spare parts did better.

有利的服務組合，希拉，正如您所提到的，商店訪問量並不完全符合我們的需要，但備件做得更好。

And again, as we're trying to manage the supply chain challenges that we're encountering, those parts are fungible and we kind of move them around every quarter to make sure that we are supporting our airline customers.

再說一次，當我們試圖管理我們遇到的供應鏈挑戰時，這些零件是可以替代的，我們每季都會移動它們，以確保我們為航空公司客戶提供支援。

So there's always a little bit of tension between external spare parts volume and internal shop visits.

因此，外部備件數量和內部車間存取之間總是存在一些緊張關係。

So the mix skewed towards the spare parts in the quarter.

因此，本季的組合偏向備件。

And then engine mix was favorable as well.

然後引擎的組合也很有利。

As we said in our prepared remarks, we caught up on the spare engines that we had not delivered in the first three quarters.

正如我們在準備好的發言中所說，我們趕上了前三季未交付的備用引擎。

So we caught up here in the fourth quarter, but overall, as we expect, spare engine ratio for LEAP is in low double digits.

所以我們在第四季度趕上了這裡，但總體而言，正如我們預期的那樣，LEAP 的備用引擎比率處於較低的兩位數。

So it'll gradually come down, but we're not expecting a steep drop-off here.

所以它會逐漸下降，但我們預計不會出現急劇下降。

So as you think about '25, Sheila, within CES, we do expect spare parts to remain strong here, given where the external market is.

因此，當你想到 25 世紀 25 年代的 CES 展時，希拉，考慮到外部市場的情況，我們確實預計這裡的備件將保持強勁。

We expect the departures to be up kind of mid-single digits, and then all the pricing changes that we implemented last year, that they'll be thinking about the summer, get spare parts to be kind of up low double digits.

我們預計出發次數將增加中個位數，然後我們去年實施的所有定價變化，他們將考慮夏季，獲得備件將增加兩位數。

And the shop visit revenue, we're expecting shop visit revenue to be up mid-teens.

至於商店參觀收入，我們預計商店參觀收入將增長到十幾歲左右。

And that's going to come from high single-digit shop visit volume growth.

這將來自高個位數的商店訪問量增長。

And you combine that with the work scopes that are increasing, be it the wide-body programs like GE90 going for the second shop visit, and GEnx’s coming for the first shop visits versus a quick turn earlier, and then LEAP.

您可以將其與不斷增加的工作範圍相結合，無論是像 GE90 這樣的寬體機項目將進行第二次車間參觀，還是 GEnx 進行第一次車間參觀，而不是提前快速轉向，然後進行 LEAP。

So work scopes are increasing, and then modest price increases baked into that service portfolio.

因此，工作範圍不斷擴大，服務組合中的價格也隨之適度上漲。

So that's kind of the landscape of the CES revenue growth.

這就是 CES 營收成長的情況。

And then that is going to drive the profit in response to Myles' question earlier.

這將推動利潤的成長，以回應邁爾斯先前提出的問題。

Now, we're going to come out of the gate strong here, Sheila, within CES especially.

現在，希拉，我們將在 CES 上表現強勁，尤其是在 CES 上。

And the primary driver for that is the 9X shipments are more towards the back end of the year.

其主要驅動因素是 9X 的出貨量更多是在今年年底。

But we are entering the year for spare parts with about 90% of that revenue in our backlog.

但今年我們的備件收入中約有 90% 處於積壓狀態。

So we'll have a strong quarter here to start with in our spare part sales.

因此，我們的備件銷售將在本季開始表現強勁。

We expect shop visits to grow as well.

我們預計商店訪問量也會增加。

And then we had the CMR of over $200 million in 1Q of last year; we're not expecting that to repeat.

去年第一季我們的 CMR 超過 2 億美元；我們不希望這種情況再次發生。

So we'll start the year strongly on profit.

因此，我們將以強勁的利潤開始新的一年。

And revenue for the quarter for CES should be kind of in line with what we're expecting for full year.

CES 本季的營收應該與我們全年的預期一致。

Hopefully that answers the question, Sheila.

希望這能回答這個問題，希拉。

Doug Harned, Bernstein.

道格·哈內德，伯恩斯坦。

Good morning.

早安.

Thank you.

謝謝。

I want to just follow up a little more on the commercial services growth.

我想進一步了解商業服務的成長情況。

Because when you talk about low double-digit to mid-teens next year, that's a little better than you were talking about before or this year.

因為當你談論明年低兩位數到十幾歲左右的數字時，這比你之前或今年談論的要好一些。

But can you talk about where that's coming from?

但你能談談它是從哪裡來的嗎？

Because wide-body versus narrow-body, in other words, could you go higher if you can resolve these supply chain issues?

換句話說，因為寬體飛機與窄體飛機相比，如果你能解決這些供應鏈問題，你能走得更高嗎？

Doug, as you would imagine, it's a broad-based demand strengthening that we see.

道格，正如你想像的那樣，我們看到的是廣泛基礎的需求增強。

Could we go higher?

我們可以走得更高嗎？

We've got work to do with the supply chain to execute on what Rahul just walked everybody through.

我們需要在供應鏈方面開展工作，以執行拉胡爾剛剛向大家介紹的內容。

But there is more pent-up demand there.

但那裡還有更多被壓抑的需求。

We've got the backlog.

我們有積壓的訂單。

An unhelpful level of that is, in many respects, delinquent.

從很多方面來看，這種程度的無益就是過失。

So if we could continue to deliver the sequential improvements in inputs, combined with the progress I know we're making in our own shops, I wouldn't say no.

因此，如果我們能夠繼續對投入進行連續改進，再加上我知道我們在自己的商店中取得的進展，我不會拒絕。

But we've got work to do to deliver what we just outlined.

但為了實現我們剛才概述的目標，我們還有很多工作要做。

But again, it won't be a demand challenge for us in 2025, we believe.

但我們相信，到 2025 年，這不會對我們構成需求挑戰。

We don't want to take it all for granted.

我們不想把這一切視為理所當然。

But given the environment, given the backlog, it really is about operational execution.

但考慮到環境、考慮到積壓，這實際上與營運執行有關。

That's where we're focused.

這就是我們關注的焦點。

Robert Stallard, Vertical Research.

羅伯特·斯塔拉德，垂直研究。

Thanks so much.

非常感謝。

Good morning.

早安.

Just a question on the LEAP.

只是關於 LEAP 的問題。

You're expecting 15% to 20% growth this year, and Rahul said that you expect the spares ratio in that to come down.

您預計今年的成長率為 15% 至 20%，拉胡爾表示，您預計其中的備件比率將會下降。

So looking at the remnant of those engines, how are you expecting the split to go between Airbus and Boeing in 2025?

那麼，看看這些引擎的剩餘部分，您預計 2025 年空中巴士和波音之間的分拆會如何？

Well, we don't get into that level of detail publicly.

好吧，我們不會公開討論這一細節。

But I think we are, as you would imagine, in frequent contact with all of our customers, particularly those two vis-a-vis the intentions they have for 2025.

但我認為，正如您所想像的那樣，我們與所有客戶保持著頻繁的聯繫，特別是這兩位客戶，以及他們對 2025 年的意圖。

I think we are well aligned to support both of them as they step up production this year.

我認為我們非常一致地支持他們今年加強生產。

Seth Seifman, JPMorgan.

賽斯‧塞夫曼，摩根大通。

Thanks very much, and good morning.

非常感謝，早安。

I wanted to ask about the spares growth, you kind of talked about departures and price.

我想問一下備件增長情況，您談到了班次和價格。

One of the other things I'm kind of curious about is provisioning of third-party shops to do more LEAP maintenance over time, the degree to which that's happened, the degree to which that's still in front of us and affects kind of the spares growth trajectory, and maybe also the CapEx that you're doing and how you think, over time, that plays into the amount of LEAP work that will be done internally versus externally.

我有點好奇的另一件事是提供第三方商店隨著時間的推移進行更多的 LEAP 維護，這種情況發生的程度，它仍然在我們面前並影響備件的程度增長軌跡，也許還有你正在做的資本支出以及你如何思考，隨著時間的推移，這些都會影響內部與外部完成的LEAP 工作量。

So Seth, let me start and Larry can jump in here.

塞斯，讓我開始，拉里可以插進來。

Obviously, as we're coming out of the gate here, most of the shop visits have been internal.

顯然，當我們走出這裡時，大多數商店參觀都是內部的。

As we said, about 90%, give or take, were shop visits that we performed within Safran and GE.

正如我們所說，大約 90%（無論多少）是我們在賽峰集團和通用電氣內部進行的車間參觀。

The external network is beginning to step up.

外部網路開始加速。

We have five external partners.

我們有五個外部合作夥伴。

They're beginning to get volume.

他們開始增加銷售量。

We spoke about the [Akasa] win with one of the third-party MRO partners that we have last quarter.

我們與上季度的第三方 MRO 合作夥伴之一討論了 [Akasa] 的勝利。

So those visits are stepping up, and they've been stepping up sequentially as the year has gone on.

因此，這些訪問正在增加，而且隨著時間的推移，它們一直在不斷增加。

So as we think about 2025, we expect about, call it, 15%-ish of our shop visits to be external.

因此，當我們考慮 2025 年時，我們預計 15% 左右的商店訪問量來自外部。

And then, as I said earlier, about 25% of the shop visits that we have sold are going to be performed by our third-party MRO partners.

然後，正如我之前所說，我們銷售的約 25% 的商店訪問將由我們的第三方 MRO 合作夥伴執行。

And then, that will gradually grow up as we get into 2030 and beyond.

然後，隨著我們進入 2030 年及以後，這一數字將逐漸增長。

So that's the trajectory we are on.

這就是我們現在的軌跡。

And within that, obviously, spare parts will grow.

顯然，其中備件將會成長。

Spare parts sales will grow as more shop visits are performed externally.

隨著更多的外部到店參觀，備件銷售將會成長。

So the margins on the program will get better because of that dynamic.

因此，由於這種動態，該計劃的利潤率將會變得更好。

But overall, even on the services side, on our internal service contract, just given all the durability improvements that Larry just mentioned, our margins on our internal work that we are performing are very stable.

但總的來說，即使在服務方面，根據我們的內部服務合同，只要考慮到拉里剛才提到的所有耐用性改進，我們正在執行的內部工作的利潤率就非常穩定。

I mean, we've had a couple of good years of service profitability results here on our own service contract.

我的意思是，根據我們自己的服務合同，我們已經取得了幾年良好的服務盈利結果。

So we feel good about that as well.

所以我們對此也感覺很好。

David Strauss, Barclays.

大衛‧史特勞斯，巴克萊銀行。

Thanks.

謝謝。

Good morning.

早安.

I just wanted to touch on the free cash flow forecast for 2025, Rahul.

拉胡爾，我只想談談 2025 年自由現金流預測。

Maybe if you could go into -- it looks like you're assuming neutral-ish overall working capital, maybe a slight tailwind.

也許如果你可以進入 - 看起來你假設整體營運資金呈中性，也許有輕微的順風。

How are you thinking that kind of breaks out between inventory, LTSA cash, AD&A, just those moving pieces within working capital?

您如何看待庫存、LTSA 現金、AD&A 以及營運資金中的移動部分之間的這種突破？

Yeah.

是的。

So David, most of the cash growth in '25 is going to be driven by our earnings.

所以大衛，25 年的大部分現金成長將由我們的收入驅動。

Working capital and AD&A combined should be a positive contributor.

營運資金和 AD&A 相結合應該會產生積極的貢獻。

And within working capital, the inventory buildup should be less than what we had in 2024.

在營運資金範圍內，庫存累積應該低於 2024 年的水準。

I mean, in inventory, we added about $1.5 billion of inventory in 2024.

我的意思是，在庫存方面，我們在 2024 年增加了約 15 億美元的庫存。

We're obviously not expecting to add the same level.

我們顯然不希望添加相同的等級。

Now, again, our primary objective is to increase our deliveries, and we will do what it takes.

現在，我們的首要目標是增加交付量，我們將竭盡全力。

But with the improvement in deliveries, we do expect that some of the inventory that we've built up will start getting liquidated.

但隨著交付量的改善，我們確實預期我們累積的一些庫存將開始被清算。

The flip side of that is the contract assets, which was a very favorable contributor in '24, will not be as favorable in '25, just given the increase in shop visits.

另一方面，合約資產在 24 年是一個非常有利的貢獻者，但在 25 年將不再那麼有利，只是考慮到商店訪問量的增加。

So still a positive, but not as much of a positive.

所以仍然是積極的，但不是那麼積極。

So that's kind of within the working capital.

所以這在營運資金之內。

Now, AD&A, overall, we ended at about $300 million of outflow in '24, which was consistent with what we thought at the beginning of the year, a little bit more skewed towards the fourth quarter, but expect overall AD&A outflow to be at the same level, maybe marginally higher.

現在，AD&A 總體而言，我們 24 年的流出額約為 3 億美元，這與我們年初的預期一致，稍微偏向第四季度，但預計 AD&A 總體流出額為同一水平，也許略高一些。

So that's kind of the expectation on AD&A.

這就是對 AD&A 的期望。

And then, the positive contributions from working capital and AD&A will be offset by the expected higher cash tax payments next year and a step-up in CapEx.

然後，來自營運資本和 AD&A 的積極貢獻將被明年預期更高的現金稅支付和資本支出的增加所抵消。

So conversion, still solidly above 100%, maybe a little bit lower than what we had in 2024.

因此，轉換率仍然穩定在 100% 以上，可能比 2024 年的情況低。

Jason Gursky, Citi.

賈森古爾斯基，花旗銀行。

Hey.

嘿。

Good morning, everybody.

大家早安。

And Blaire, congratulations on the elevated role, well deserved.

布萊爾，祝賀你獲得晉升，他當之無愧。

Rahul and Larry, I was wondering if you could just spend a few minutes on labor productivity across the company and where you think you are relative to pre-pandemic levels.

拉胡爾和拉里，我想知道你們是否可以花幾分鐘時間了解一下整個公司的勞動生產率以及你們認為與大流行前水平相比的情況。

And what you think it's going to take for the company to get back to the productivity that we're seeing prior to the pandemic?

您認為公司需要做什麼才能恢復到疫情大流行之前的生產力？

And just how much of that is actually in your control and how much of it is dependent on external suppliers getting you what you need on time?

其中有多少實際上是在您的控制之下，有多少取決於外部供應商按時為您提供所需的東西？

Thanks.

謝謝。

Jason, I think that as I look back on 2024, everything that we saw come through the financials, everything we saw visiting a number of our operations, just ample evidence that the FLIGHT DECK principles and tools really are helping us go in, put the operators at the center of all put the operators at the center of all we do and just drain the waste out of their daily work.

Jason，我認為，當我回顧2024 年時，我們看到的一切都來自財務狀況，我們在參觀我們的一些業務時看到的一切，都有充分的證據表明FLIGHT DECK 原則和工具確實正在幫助我們進入，把操作員是一切工作的中心 將操作員置於我們所做工作的中心，消除日常工作中的浪費。

That, to me, is the heart of labor productivity.

對我來說，這就是勞動生產力的核心。

Unfortunately, that work that we see with our own eyes hasn't fully translated into either better on-time delivery performance or labor productivity for the very reason that you touched on.

不幸的是，我們親眼所見的工作並沒有完全轉化為更好的準時交貨績效或勞動生產力，這正是您所提到的原因。

And I don't want this to sound in any way defensive, the progress that we're making with those material inputs that we referenced in the prepared remarks, the sequential first half, second half, up 26%, coupled with the higher predictability, the higher reliability of those inputs, north of 90% now for the critical suppliers, will enable us to have more predictable, more linear flow through our factories, through our repair shops, such that I think we'll actually do better from a labor productivity.

我不希望這聽起來有任何防禦性，我們在準備好的評論中提到的材料投入方面取得的進展，上半年、下半年連續增長了 26%，加上更高的可預測性，這些輸入的可靠性更高，現在關鍵供應商的可靠性超過90%，將使我們能夠透過我們的工廠、維修店擁有更可預測、更線性的流程，這樣我認為我們實際上會做得更好勞動生產率。

It's hard to quantify how much, if you will, labor lack of productivity comes as a result of our delivery challenges on the inbound side.

如果你願意的話，很難量化我們在入境方面的交付挑戰導致勞動生產力缺乏的程度。

But as we work those, I think we sit here fully expecting to be able to deliver better labor productivity in '25 and certainly from there.

但當我們致力於這些工作時，我認為我們坐在這裡完全期待能夠在 25 年以及從那時起提供更好的勞動生產力。

Gavin Parsons, UBS.

加文·帕森斯，瑞銀集團。

Hey.

嘿。

Good morning, guys.

早安，夥計們。

I'd love to just kind of go further into supply chain a little bit.

我很想進一步深入了解供應鏈。

It sounds like it's getting better.

聽起來情況似乎正在好轉。

You've got the LEAP-1A blade certified, but internal shop visits were still down in the fourth quarter.

您已經獲得了 LEAP-1A 刀片認證，但第四季度的內部車間訪問量仍然下降。

Just maybe if you could go into where the bottlenecks or the pain points still are and if that's a linear improvement through '25 or if that's a step function at some point on an unlock.

也許您可以深入了解瓶頸或痛點仍然存在的地方，以及這是否是到 25 年的線性改進，或者是否是解鎖時某個點的階躍函數。

Thank you.

謝謝。

Well, I don't think we have much by way of new news in that regard.

嗯，我認為我們在這方面沒有太多新消息。

The challenge remains as it has with 15 or so critical suppliers that we're working intensely with.

與我們密切合作的大約 15 家關鍵供應商所面臨的挑戰仍然存在。

I think we mentioned yet again today that we've got well over 500 of our own people embedded in the supply base working to identify and eliminate constraints, thus unlocking the output that we need.

我想我們今天再次提到，我們有超過 500 名員工嵌入供應基地，致力於識別和消除限制，從而釋放我們所需的產出。

I think as we look at '24, the progress that we made in hindsight is significant, but it came in fits and starts.

我認為，當我們回顧 24 年時，事後看來我們的進展是顯著的，但進展時斷時續。

It was a game of inches, if you will.

如果你願意的話，這是一場寸土寸金的遊戲。

I think that will continue to be the case in 2025.

我認為到 2025 年，情況仍將如此。

There's no step function improvement necessarily sitting out there on the HPT blade.

HPT 刀片上不一定有階躍功能改進。

Certainly, the LEAP-1A durability kit will help.

當然，LEAP-1A 耐用套件會有所幫助。

But more broadly speaking, it really is working through the entirety of the supply base to make sure they're clear on our demand signals that those are being properly deployed and that we're working through whatever capacity constraints, bottlenecks, and the like that they may have in their own operations.

但更廣泛地說，它確實正在通過整個供應基地進行工作，以確保他們清楚我們的需求信號，即這些信號正在正確部署，並且我們正在解決任何產能限制、瓶頸等問題他們可能在自己的業務中擁有。

And that, to me, is really what's so critical.

對我來說，這才是最重要的。

And that'll be fundamental to how we support Boeing this year as they ramp, particularly on the 737 MAX.

這對於我們今年如何支持波音公司的發展至關重要，特別是在 737 MAX 上。

The same goes with Airbus.

空中巴士公司也是如此。

We know we're working very hard, well aligned with Airbus as we both march toward their rate 75.

我們知道我們正在非常努力地工作，與空中巴士公司保持一致，我們都朝著他們的 75 率邁進。

So a lot to do.

有很多事情要做。

It won't be linear, but I think we have tremendous confidence that we're coming into 2025 far better prepared for the ramp than we were coming into 2024.

這不會是線性的，但我認為我們非常有信心，我們在進入 2025 年時會比 2024 年做好更好的準備。

And the final thing I'll say is that we often talk about the ramp wholly focused on new make.

我要說的最後一件事是，我們經常談論完全專注於新品牌的坡道。

The work we do with our supply base helps us support the air framers, but it's often the same parts and the same suppliers that feed into the aftermarket.

我們與供應基地所做的工作幫助我們為空氣成型機提供支持，但進入售後市場的往往是相同的零件和相同的供應商。

I would just caution anyone about over-indexing on that, say that 15% to 20% increase in LEAP new make in 2025, the demands on the supply base are going to be in excess of that, again, because we also need to support the aftermarket with those same partners.

我只是警告任何人不要對此過度指數化，假設 2025 年 LEAP 新品增加 15% 到 20%，對供應基礎的需求將再次超過這個數字，因為我們還需要支持與這些相同的合作夥伴一起進行售後市場。

And Gavin, just to add to what Larry just said, just as we think about 2025 here and as we're coming out of the gate, you saw the sequential improvement in our engine output in 4Q.

加文，補充拉里剛才所說的，正如我們在這裡思考 2025 年，當我們即將走出大門時，您會看到我們的發動機輸出在第四季度連續改善。

We expect that continuously sequential improvement as we go through the year.

我們預計這一年將持續取得連續性改善。

But what that translates into a little bit more growth on a year-over-year basis as we get into the second and third quarters, because that's where we had some challenging quarters last year, because we started out well coming out of the gate in 1Q.

但是，當我們進入第二季度和第三季度時，這意味著同比增長會更多一些，因為去年我們在這兩個季度遇到了一些具有挑戰性的季度，因為我們在1Q。

So how that translates for our overall business, and just to add to what I said to Sheila's question earlier about how CES is going to perform, I think the same applies to DPT as well.

那麼這對我們的整體業務有何影響，並且補充一下我之前對 Sheila 提出的關於 CES 將如何表現的問題，我認為這也適用於 DPT。

DPT is going to have a little softer start here in 1Q, given the first quarter was pretty strong for DPT, but a little slower start in DPT, plus some of the internal investments that we are making in the business to support the new programs.

鑑於第一季 DPT 相當強勁，DPT 在第一季的開局將稍微疲軟，但 DPT 的開局稍慢，加上我們為支持新計劃而在業務中進行的一些內部投資。

So if you step back and look at the company overall, we expect overall full-year revenue for the first quarter to line up with what we are expecting for full year for the company.

因此，如果你退後一步看看公司的整體情況，我們預計第一季的全年整體收入將與我們對公司全年的預期一致。

Our profit will be flat, maybe sequentially down a little bit versus what we did in the fourth quarter.

我們的利潤將持平，與第四季相比可能會略有下降。

As we go from 4Q to 1Q, profit could be flat to be slightly down, but strong growth on a year-over-year basis and margins should expand in the quarter as well.

從第四季度到第一季度，利潤可能持平或略有下降，但同比增長強勁，本季利潤率也應該會擴大。

Liz, we have time for one last question.

麗茲，我們還有時間回答最後一個問題。

Robert Spingarn, Melius Research.

羅伯特‧斯賓加恩 (Robert Spingarn)，Melius 研究中心。

Hey.

嘿。

Good morning.

早安.

Larry, maybe I can finish off with a high-level strategic question.

拉里，也許我可以用一個高級戰略問題來結束。

Some would argue that RTX's ability to bundle Pratt's propulsion technology with Collins' offering in avionics and structures could provide them with a competitive advantage when bidding for work packages on future aircraft programs.

有些人認為，RTX 將普拉特的推進技術與柯林斯在航空電子設備和結構方面的產品捆綁在一起的能力，可以為他們在競標未來飛機項目的工作包時提供競爭優勢。

Your balance sheet is in great shape.

您的資產負債表狀況良好。

This is evidenced by your updated cash deployment plans this morning.

今天早上更新的現金部署計劃就證明了這一點。

And since you are going to generate a lot of cash over the next five years, is there any desire to expand the business beyond propulsion through organic or more particularly inorganic means?

由於您將在未來五年內產生大量現金，是否希望透過有機或更具體的無機方式將業務擴展到推動之外？

Thank you.

謝謝。

I think we will stand by our capital allocation framework that we shared almost a year ago now with respect to how we think we will deploy not only our cash flows and our cash reserves in '25, but going forward.

我認為我們將堅持我們大約一年前分享的資本配置框架，我們認為我們不僅將在 25 年部署我們的現金流和現金儲備，而且還將繼續部署。

We certainly have ample resources.

我們當然有充足的資源。

But again, just to reiterate, we are going to have a strong bias toward shareholder returns.

但再次重申，我們將對股東回報抱持強烈的偏見。

It doesn't mean that we will exclude M&A, but as you saw with the Northstar announcement, much of what we will do will be small tuck-ins and adjacencies.

這並不意味著我們將排除併購，但正如您在 Northstar 公告中看到的那樣，我們將做的大部分工作將是小型的整合和鄰接。

I don't think I have ever, in this role at this company or elsewhere, publicly commented on specific situations, and I think I will hold to that again here this morning.

我認為我從未在這家公司或其他地方擔任過這個角色，公開評論過具體情況，我想今天早上我將再次堅持這一點。

But we appreciate and understand the question.

但我們欣賞並理解這個問題。

Larry, any final comments?

拉里，最後有什麼意見嗎？

Blaire, I would just wrap up to say the team all around the world delivered standout results in 2024.

Blaire，我最後想說的是，世界各地的團隊在 2024 年取得了出色的成果。

And clearly, the finish there in the fourth quarter was no exception.

顯然，第四節的結束也不例外。

I hope everybody on the call heard how excited we are about the year ahead as we work to meet what we believe to be historic industry demand and deliver for our customers.

我希望參加電話會議的每個人都能聽到我們對未來一年的興奮之情，因為我們將努力滿足我們認為的歷史性行業需求並為客戶提供服務。

We certainly appreciate your time today and your interest in GE Aerospace.

我們非常感謝您今天抽出時間以及您對 GE 航空航天公司的興趣。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen.

謝謝你們，女士們、先生們。

This concludes today's conference.

今天的會議到此結束。

Thank you for participating.

感謝您的參與。

You may now disconnect.

您現在可以斷開連線。