奇異 (GE) 2025 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the GE Aerospace third-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) My name is Dustin, and I will be your conference coordinator today. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

女士們、先生們，大家好，歡迎參加 GE 航空航天 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）我叫達斯汀，今天我將擔任您的會議協調員。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today's conference, Blaire Shoor, Head of Investor Relations. Please proceed.

現在，我想將節目交給今天會議的主持人、投資者關係主管布萊爾舒爾 (Blaire Shoor)。請繼續。

Thanks, Dustin. Welcome to GE Aerospace's third-quarter 2025 earnings call. I'm joined by Chairman and CEO, Larry Culp; and CFO, Rahul Ghai.

謝謝，達斯汀。歡迎參加 GE 航空航太 2025 年第三季財報電話會議。與我一起出席的還有董事長兼執行長 Larry Culp 和財務長 Rahul Ghai。

Many of the statements we're making are forward looking and based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. As described in our SEC filings and website, those elements may change as the world changes. Additionally, Larry and Rahul, consistent with prior quarters, will speak to total company and corporate financial results and guidance today on a non-GAAP basis.

我們所做的許多聲明都具有前瞻性，並且基於我們對當今世界和我們業務的最佳看法。正如我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件和網站中所述，這些要素可能會隨著世界的變化而變化。此外，與前幾個季度一樣，拉里和拉胡爾今天將以非 GAAP 為基礎介紹公司和企業的整體財務表現和指導。

Now, over to Larry.

現在，交給拉里。

Blaire, thank you. And good morning, everyone.

布萊爾，謝謝你。大家早安。

At GE Aerospace, our purpose is simple: we invent the future of flight, lift people up, and bring them home safely. Every moment, nearly 1 million people are flying with our technology under wing, an incredible responsibility that we take seriously.

在通用電氣航空航太公司，我們的目標很簡單：創造飛行的未來，載人上天，並且安全回家。每時每刻，都有近百萬人搭乘我們的科技飛行，這是我們肩負的重大責任，我們對此十分重視。

FLIGHT DECK, our proprietary lean operating model, is how we turn strategy into results. And our exceptional third-quarter and year-to-date results demonstrate FLIGHT DECK in action. We're making meaningful progress to accelerate delivery of our services and products to meet robust customer demand.

FLIGHT DECK 是我們專有的精實營運模式，它是我們將策略轉化為成果的方式。我們第三季和今年迄今為止的出色業績證明了 FLIGHT DECK 的有效性。我們正在取得重大進展，加速交付我們的服務和產品，以滿足強勁的客戶需求。

And our commitment to ongoing investments in LEAP durability and the future of flight is centered on delivering value to our customers, [supporting growth.](added by company after the call) Guided by our purpose, our team is energized every day to define flight for today, tomorrow, and the future.

我們致力於持續投資於 LEAP 耐用性和飛行的未來，其核心是為我們的客戶提供價值，[支持增長]（公司在電話會議後補充道）在我們的目標的指導下，我們的團隊每天都充滿活力，為今天、明天和未來的飛行做出定義。

Let's take a closer look at our third-quarter performance. Orders were up 2% with solid growth in commercial services, partially offset by the timing of equipment orders in commercial equipment and defense. Year to date, orders are up 13%, with services up 31%. In the third quarter, revenue grew 26% and profit was $2.3 billion, also up 26%, driven by strong deliveries across aftermarket, OE, and defense. This supported 44% growth in EPS to $1.66 and over 130% free cash flow conversion.

讓我們仔細看看我們第三季的表現。由於商業服務業務的穩健成長，訂單量增加了 2%，但商業設備和國防設備訂單的時間表部分抵消了這一增長。今年迄今為止，訂單量增加了 13%，服務量增加了 31%。第三季度，營收成長 26%，利潤達到 23 億美元，同樣成長 26%，這得益於售後市場、原始設備製造商和國防市場的強勁交付。這支持了每股收益成長 44% 至 1.66 美元，以及自由現金流轉換率超過 130%。

In Commercial Engines & Services, or CES, we're servicing and growing the industry's most extensive commercial install base. Services demand remains robust, with orders up 32% and services revenue up 28%, as improved material availability helped fulfill customer demand, driving total CES operating profit growth of 35% year on year.

在商用引擎與服務（CES）領域，我們正在服務並發展業界最廣泛的商業安裝基礎。服務需求依然強勁，訂單成長32%，服務收入成長28%，因為材料供應的改善有助於滿足客戶需求，推動CES總營業利潤年增35%。

In Defense & Propulsion Technologies, or DPT, we're improving delivery of our leading platforms while developing mission-critical technology. We delivered very solid results with higher output supporting revenue growth of 26%, with profit up 75%. Given our year-to-date results, combined with our fourth-quarter expectations, we're raising our full-year guidance across the board. I want to thank our team and our supplier partners for delivering for our customers and for another quarter of strong performance.

在國防與推進技術（DPT）領域，我們正在開發關鍵任務技術的同時改進領先平台的交付。我們取得了非常穩健的業績，產量增加支持了收入成長 26%，利潤成長 75%。鑑於我們今年迄今的業績，結合我們對第四季度的預期，我們全面上調了全年業績預期。我要感謝我們的團隊和供應商合作夥伴為我們的客戶提供服務並再次實現強勁業績。

Shifting to slide 5, we continue to experience significant demand for our services and products, and we're encouraged by how FLIGHT DECK is taking hold across the supply chain to deliver on our roughly $175 billion backlog. Much of this improvement is due to the progress within our Technology & Operations team, bringing together our safety, quality, engineering, supply chain, and manufacturing teams to hardwire problem solving, resulting in improved delivery for our customers.

轉到投影片 5，我們繼續感受到對我們服務和產品的巨大需求，並且我們對 FLIGHT DECK 如何在整個供應鏈中佔據一席之地並滿足我們約 1750 億美元的積壓訂單感到鼓舞。這項改進很大程度上歸功於我們的技術與營運團隊的進步，該團隊將我們的安全、品質、工程、供應鏈和製造團隊聚集在一起，以切實解決問題，從而為我們的客戶提供更好的交付。

Our team is working better cross-functionally to deliver improved outcomes and, in turn, accelerating the same type of collaboration with our supply base. For example, this quarter, we partnered with a critical supplier to address several key constraints utilizing FLIGHT DECK tools such as problem solving, 5S, and standard work. This resulted in the supplier improving first-time yields meaningfully and, in turn, delivering a more than 2x increase in output.

我們的團隊正在更好地進行跨職能合作，以提供更好的成果，進而加速與我們的供應基地的同類型的合作。例如，本季度，我們與一家關鍵供應商合作，利用 FLIGHT DECK 工具（例如問題解決、5S 和標準工作）解決了幾個關鍵限制。這使得供應商顯著提高了首次良率，使產量提高了 2 倍以上。

Our priority suppliers also continue to improve shipments against their targets, shipping more than 95% of committed volume for the third consecutive quarter. Greater stability enables us to meet our commitments. As a result of these actions, material input from our priority suppliers continues to grow, up 35% year over year and up high-single digits sequentially. And we continue to advance on our durability roadmap, with our next iteration of the LEAP-1A HPT blade now in production, and that will further enhance output. As you can see, operational momentum is building, leading to significant growth.

我們的優先供應商也持續提高出貨量以實現目標，連續第三個季度出貨量超過承諾量的 95%。更大的穩定性使我們能夠履行承諾。由於這些行動，我們優先供應商的材料投入持續成長，年增 35%，季增高個位數。我們將繼續推進耐用性路線圖，下一代 LEAP-1A HPT 葉片現已投入生產，這將進一步提高產量。如您所見，營運動能正在增強，並帶來顯著的成長。

CES services revenue was up 28%, with internal shop visit revenue up 33% and spare parts revenue up more than 25% year over year. Total engine deliveries were up 41% year over year and 18% sequentially. Commercial units were up 33%, including record LEAP deliveries, up 40% year over year in the third quarter. Year to date, commercial units are up 19%, with LEAP up 21%. Based on this progress, we now expect to grow LEAP deliveries more than 20% for the full year, up from our prior outlook of 15% to 20%.

CES 服務營收年增 28%，其中內部店內訪問收入成長 33%，備件收入成長超過 25%。引擎總交付量年增 41%，季增 18%。第三季商用飛機交付量年增 33%，其中 LEAP 交付量創歷史新高，年增 40%。今年迄今為止，商業單位數量上漲了 19%，其中 LEAP 上漲了 21%。基於這項進展，我們目前預計全年 LEAP 交付量將成長 20% 以上，高於我們先前預測的 15% 至 20%。

Defense units were up 83% year over year, marking the second consecutive quarter of defense output exceeding 80% growth. Additionally, while CFM56 continues to fly for longer and with LEAP's fleet size expected to triple by 2030, FLIGHT DECK is also helping us expand our capacity and capabilities to reduce turnaround times and improve shop visit output, two top priorities to meet the demands of our customers.

國防力量年增83%，這是國防產出連續第二季成長超過80%。此外，隨著 CFM56 的飛行時間不斷延長，並且預計到 2030 年 LEAP 的機隊規模將增加兩倍，FLIGHT DECK 還將幫助我們擴大產能和能力，以減少週轉時間並提高車間訪問產量，這是滿足客戶需求的兩個首要任務。

For example, we've made progress with LEAP turnaround time at our Malaysia MRO shop. Our team there improved flow and delivered a 30% reduction in engine disassembly time. As a result of actions like these, total LEAP internal shop visit output grew by more than 30% in the third quarter.

例如，我們在馬來西亞 MRO 商店的 LEAP 週轉時間方面取得了進展。我們的團隊改善了流程，將引擎拆卸時間縮短了 30%。由於採取了這些措施，LEAP 第三季內部店內訪問總量增加了 30% 以上。

We're also investing in incremental capacity to support our customers' growing fleets. This quarter, our XEOS MRO facility in Poland completed its first LEAP shop visits. And our LEAP third-party MRO network also continues to grow rapidly, with external shop visits up roughly twofold.

我們也正在投資增加產能，以支援客戶不斷成長的車隊。本季度，我們位於波蘭的 XEOS MRO 工廠完成了首次 LEAP 車間訪問。我們的 LEAP 第三方 MRO 網路也持續快速成長，外部店家訪問量增加了約一倍。

In addition, we collaborated with our leasing partner for LEAP to reduce the time it takes to redeploy spare engines between customers, resulting in improved spare engine availability. We're also investing nearly $1 billion in our supply chain to expand capacity, and we're counting on our suppliers to also make like investments to support the growth ahead.

此外，我們與 LEAP 的租賃合作夥伴合作，減少了在客戶之間重新部署備用引擎所需的時間，從而提高了備用引擎的可用性。我們也在供應鏈上投資了近 10 億美元來擴大產能，我們也指望我們的供應商也做出類似的投資來支持未來的成長。

While this is progress, we know there's much more work to do to improve LEAP turnaround times to meet customer expectations. We're accelerating our use of FLIGHT DECK, taking lessons learned, and applying them across our network to deliver a better experience for our customers. This quarter clearly marked another step forward, with year-to-date commercial services revenue and total engine deliveries both up 25%. We're well positioned to ramp further as we go into 2026.

雖然這是一個進步，但我們知道還有很多工作要做，以縮短 LEAP 週轉時間，滿足客戶的期望。我們正在加快使用 FLIGHT DECK，吸取經驗教訓，並將其應用於我們的網絡，為我們的客戶提供更好的體驗。本季顯然又向前邁進了一步，年初至今的商業服務收入和引擎總交付量均成長了 25%。邁入 2026 年，我們已做好準備，進一步提升業績。

Turning to slide 6. One of the FLIGHT DECK behaviors that guides our company is to be customer-driven in all that we do. Earlier this month, at our GE Aerospace Research Center, we had the opportunity to share how our experience across 2.3 billion flight hours and our roughly $3 billion of annual R&D investment is enabling continuous improvement in our field performance. For reference, we've posted these materials on our Investor Relations website, and I encourage you to take a look.

翻到幻燈片 6。指導我們公司的 FLIGHT DECK 行為之一就是在我們所做的一切事情中以客戶為導向。本月初，在通用電氣航空航天研究中心，我們有機會分享了我們 23 億飛行小時的經驗以及每年約 30 億美元的研發投資如何使我們的現場性能不斷提高。作為參考，我們已將這些資料發佈在我們的投資者關係網站上，我鼓勵您查看一下。

We're applying insights from our experience and investments to improve reliability and durability of our products as time on wing remains critical for our customers. For example, the lessons learned from 15 years of enhancing the GEnx durability over 2x are being applied to LEAP to achieve the same level of improvement. And we're increasing our investments in LEAP services technologies, such as our analytics-based maintenance, which predicts the optimal time for a shop visit, and repairs which reduce reliance on new material, benefiting both cost of ownership and turnaround times. Combined with our progress on delivery, we're actively working to meet customer expectations on LEAP.

我們正在運用從經驗和投資中獲得的見解來提高我們產品的可靠性和耐用性，因為飛行時間對我們的客戶來說仍然至關重要。例如，15 年來將 GEnx 耐久性提高 2 倍以上的經驗正在應用於 LEAP，以實現相同水準的改進。我們正在增加對 LEAP 服務技術的投資，例如基於分析的維護，它可以預測最佳的進店時間，以及減少對新材料依賴的維修，從而降低擁有成本並縮短週轉時間。結合我們在交付方面的進展，我們正在積極努力滿足客戶對 LEAP 的期望。

We're also applying similar lessons from GEnx and LEAP durability to our next iteration of engines. We just launched our second dust test on the 9X, which will continue to mature the design pre-entry into service. This builds upon over 30,000 cycles of testing, including 9,000 endurance cycles, which will make the 9X the most tested engine in our history.

我們也將 GEnx 和 LEAP 耐久性的類似經驗應用到我們的下一代引擎中。我們剛剛對 9X 啟動了第二次灰塵測試，這將在投入使用前繼續完善設計。這是基於超過 30,000 個循環的測試，其中包括 9,000 個耐久性循環，這將使 9X 成為我們歷史上測試最多的引擎。

Earlier this month, we began similar dust testing on next-generation HPT blades for our RISE compact core development. This marks the earliest we've ever started this type of testing in development. While we're investing in compact core to mature RISE technologies, there could be applications of these learnings for today's fleet as well. We recently announced the first-ever chief mechanic and architect for our Open Fan technology, making durability a top priority in engine design with an uncompromising commitment to safety.

本月初，我們開始對下一代 HPT 葉片進行類似的灰塵測試，以進行 RISE 緊湊型核心開發。這標誌著我們在開發中最早開始此類測試。在我們投資緊湊核心以完善 RISE 技術的同時，這些知識也可以應用於當今的車隊。我們最近宣布了首位開放式風扇技術的首席機械師和架構師，將耐用性作為引擎設計的首要考慮因素，並毫不妥協地致力於安全性。

Our focus on delivering for our customers across current and future platforms is driving success in the marketplace. And a couple of key wins this quarter of note. Korean Air announced the largest fleet commitment in its history with 103 Boeing aircraft powered by GEnx, GE 9X, and LEAP-1B engines, plus long-term services. We also secured a commitment from Cathay Pacific for GE 9X engines to power 14 additional 777-9s, bringing their total commitment to 35 777Xs aircraft powered by our GE 9X. These wins build upon our solid backlog and were sold out in effect, both on LEAP and GEnx, through the rest of this decade.

我們專注於在當前和未來的平台上為客戶提供服務，從而推動市場的成功。本季度取得了幾項關鍵勝利。大韓航空宣布了其歷史上最大的機隊承諾，其中包括 103 架由 GEnx、GE 9X 和 LEAP-1B 發動機驅動的波音飛機以及長期服務。我們還獲得了國泰航空的承諾，將為另外 14 架 777-9 飛機提供 GE 9X 發動機，從而使其總共承諾為 35 架 777X 飛機提供 GE 9X 發動機。這些勝利建立在我們堅實的積壓訂單基礎之上，並且在本世紀剩餘的時間裡，LEAP 和 GEnx 的訂單實際上都已銷售一空。

Stepping back, we know our customers are counting on us to deliver reliability, predictability, time on wing, and at the right cost of ownership. With FLIGHT DECK, we're making daily progress to meet those objectives, supporting their and our growth.

退一步來說，我們知道我們的客戶指望我們提供可靠性、可預測性、飛行時間以及合適的擁有成本。借助 FLIGHT DECK，我們每天都在不斷進步以實現這些目標，支持他們和我們的成長。

Rahul, over to you.

拉胡爾，交給你了。

Rahul Ghai: Larry, thank you, and good morning, everyone.

拉胡爾蓋伊：拉里，謝謝你，大家早安。

GE Aerospace delivered another strong quarter marked by robust services growth and an improvement in engine deliveries, driving substantial earnings and free cash flow. Revenue was $11.3 billion, up 26%, with both segments growing over 25%. Operating profit was $2.3 billion, up 26%. Services volume, price, and productivity were partially offset by OE growth, investments, and higher corporate costs. Operating margins were flat at 20.3%, with margin expansion in both segments offset by corporate cost timing.

通用電氣航空航太公司又一個季度表現強勁，服務業務強勁增長，發動機交付量改善，推動了可觀的盈利和自由現金流。營收為 113 億美元，成長 26%，兩個部門的成長均超過 25%。營業利潤為 23 億美元，成長 26%。服務量、價格和生產力被原始設備製造商的成長、投資和更高的企業成本部分抵消。營業利益率持平於 20.3%，兩個部門的利潤率成長被企業成本時機所抵銷。

Adjusted EPS was $1.66, up 44%, from increased operating profit, a lower tax rate, and a reduced share count. Free cash flow was $2.4 billion, up 30%, from higher earnings with over 130% conversion. Working capital and AD&A combined increased by roughly $300 million from increased inventory. Cash flow from long-term service agreements continued to be favorable, and day sales outstanding declined three days year over year.

調整後的每股收益為 1.66 美元，成長 44%，這得益於營業利潤的增加、稅率的降低以及股票數量的減少。自由現金流為 24 億美元，成長 30%，收益增加，轉換率超過 130%。由於庫存增加，營運資本和 AD&A 合計增加了約 3 億美元。長期服務協議產生的現金流持續保持良好，未償付銷售額天數較去年同期減少三天。

Year to date, revenue is up 21%, and operating profit is up more than $1.5 billion, from 25% growth in commercial services. We have delivered $5.9 billion of free cash flow, up nearly $1.3 billion year over year at 115% of net income. Given the momentum during the first nine months, we are poised to deliver another solid year.

今年迄今為止，收入成長了 21%，營業利潤成長了 15 億美元以上，其中商業服務成長了 25%。我們實現了 59 億美元的自由現金流，年增近 13 億美元，佔淨收入的 115%。鑑於前九個月的強勁勢頭，我們有望再創輝煌。

Going deeper into the drivers of 44% year-over-year EPS growth. Increase in operating profit drove nearly $0.35, or 70% of the improvement in EPS, with increased segment profit in CES and DPT partially offset by higher corporate and other costs of roughly $300 million. The increase in corporate was primarily from timing of reserves for environmental health and safety expenses. Eliminations were roughly $140 million, up about $30 million year over year.

深入了解每股收益年增 44% 的驅動因素。營業利潤的成長推動了每股盈餘成長近 0.35 美元，即 70%，其中 CES 和 DPT 分部利潤的成長被約 3 億美元的公司和其他成本的增加部分抵消。公司費用的增加主要來自於環境健康和安全費用儲備的計時。抵銷金額約 1.4 億美元，較去年同期增加約 3,000 萬美元。

Additionally, our tax rate declined from approximately 20% to 15% from benefits of long-term planning projects and timing of favorable audit settlements, improving EPS by $0.10. Impact from stock buyback actions and reduction in interest expense also contributed to EPS growth.

此外，由於長期規劃項目和有利的審計結算時機，我們的稅率從約20%降至15%，每股收益提升0.10美元。股票回購行動和利息支出減少也促進了每股盈餘的成長。

Taking a closer look at our businesses, starting with CES. In the quarter, orders were up 5%, with services up 32% and equipment down 42% due to timing of some widebody and regional orders shifting from 3Q to 4Q. Revenue was 27%, with services up 28%. Internal shop visit revenue grew 33% from higher volume, widebody workscopes, and price.

仔細審視我們的業務，從 CES 開始。本季度，訂單量成長 5%，服務訂單量成長 32%，設備訂單量下降 42%，原因是部分寬體飛機和區域性飛機訂單的時間從第三季轉移到第四季。營收成長 27%，其中服務成長 28%。由於銷量增加、寬體工作範圍和價格上漲，內部店內訪問收入增加了 33%。

Spare parts sales were up over 25% as improved material availability supported increased output. Equipment revenue grew 22%, with engine deliveries up 33%, including LEAP up 40%. This more than offset a sequential and a year-over-year decline in spare engine ratio. Life of program, the spare engine ratio for LEAP remains in low-double digits.

由於材料供應的改善支持了產量的增加，備件銷售量增加了 25% 以上。設備收入成長 22%，引擎交付量成長 33%，其中 LEAP 成長 40%。這足以抵消備用引擎比例的連續和同比下降。在專案的整個生命週期中，LEAP 的備用引擎比率保持在低兩位數。

Profit was $2.4 billion, up 35%. Services margins were strong, driven by higher volume, price, and a favorable shop visit and spare parts mix. This more than offset the impact of higher installed deliveries, including 9X shipments and an increase in R&D spend.

利潤為24億美元，成長35%。服務利潤率很高，這得益於更高的銷售、更高的價格以及有利的店內訪問和備件組合。這足以抵消安裝交付量增加的影響，包括 9 倍的出貨量和研發支出的增加。

Segment margins expanded 170 basis points to 27.4%, with services revenue growth, mix, and price more than offsetting OE growth and impact from adverse mix. Year to date, CES has delivered revenue growth of 24%, operating profit of $6.6 billion, up $1.7 billion year over year, with margin expansion of 210 basis points, while delivering around 20% increase in engine shipments.

分部利潤率擴大 170 個基點至 27.4%，服務收入成長、產品組合和價格足以抵銷 OE 成長和不利產品組合的影響。今年迄今為止，CES 的營收成長了 24%，營業利潤達到 66 億美元，比去年同期增加了 17 億美元，利潤率擴大了 210 個基點，同時引擎出貨量成長了約 20%。

Moving to DPT. Orders were down 5% due to timing across quarters. Defense book-to-bill remained above 1 in the quarter and is 1.2 year to date. Our total DPT backlog is at $19 billion, up $1.5 billion year over year. Revenue grew 26% in the quarter. Defense & Systems revenue was up 24%, driven by higher engines volume, up 83% year over year, and improved pricing. Propulsion & Additive Technologies grew 29%, with all businesses growing over 20%.

移至 DPT。由於跨季度時間安排，訂單下降了 5%。本季國防訂單出貨比仍維持在 1 以上，年初至今為 1.2。我們的 DPT 積壓訂單總額為 190 億美元，年增 15 億美元。本季營收成長了26%。國防與系統業務收入成長 24%，主要得益於引擎銷售的增加（年增 83%）以及定價的提高。推進與增材技術業務成長 29%，所有業務成長超過 20%。

Profit of $386 million was up 75% year over year. Higher volume in defense at Avio, customer mix, price, and lowered losses at Additive offset continued investments and inflation. Margin expanded 380 basis points to 13.6%. Year to date, DPT has delivered 11% revenue growth, $1 billion of profit, up 27%, with 170 basis points of margin expansion.

利潤達3.86億美元，年增75%。Avio 國防業務的銷售增加、客戶結構、價格上漲以及 Additive 虧損的降低抵消了持續的投資和通貨膨脹。利潤率擴大 380 個基點至 13.6%。今年迄今為止，DPT 的營收成長了 11%，利潤達到 10 億美元，成長了 27%，利潤率擴大了 170 個基點。

Turning to guidance on slide 11. Given the strong year-to-date performance and trajectory entering the fourth quarter, we are raising our full-year guidance across the board. We expect revenue to grow high-teens, up from our prior outlook of mid-teens.

轉到投影片 11 上的指示。鑑於年初至今的強勁表現和進入第四季度的發展軌跡，我們全面上調了全年業績預期。我們預計收入將成長 15% 左右，高於我們先前預測的 15% 左右。

At CES, we now expect growth of low-20s, up from our prior outlook of high-teens. This is driven by higher services revenue, which we now expect to grow low- to mid-20s, up from high-teens. We continue to expect equipment to grow high-teens to 20%. We now expect DPT growth of high-single digits, up from mid- to high-single digits previously.

在 CES 上，我們目前預計成長率將達到 20% 出頭，高於我們先前預測的 10% 出頭。這是由更高的服務收入推動的，我們目前預計服務收入的成長率將從 15% 左右上升至 20% 左右。我們繼續預計設備成長率將達到 20% 左右。我們現在預計 DPT 成長率將達到高個位數，高於先前的中到高個位數。

Operating profit is now expected to be in a range of $8.65 billion to $8.85 billion, up $400 million at the midpoint from the prior guide. CES operating profit is now expected to be in a range of $8.45 billion to $8.65 billion, up $450 million at the midpoint from prior guide. This reflects the drop through from roughly $1 billion improvement in services revenue in the second half versus our prior guide and favorable services mix. We expect DPT profit to be in the $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion range, up $50 million at the midpoint versus the prior guide, reflecting year-to-date performance from improved deliveries.

目前預計營業利潤將在 86.5 億美元至 88.5 億美元之間，比先前預期的中位數高出 4 億美元。目前預計 CES 營業利潤將在 84.5 億美元至 86.5 億美元之間，比先前預期的中位數高出 4.5 億美元。這反映出下半年服務收入較我們先前的指引和有利的服務組合下降了約 10 億美元。我們預計 DPT 利潤將在 12 億美元至 13 億美元之間，比先前的預期中位數高出 5,000 萬美元，這反映了今年迄今為止交付量改善帶來的業績。

Corporate costs and eliminations are expected to be roughly $1 billion. Additionally, we are improving our interest expense and tax rate outlook for the year and now expect interest expense of approximately $850 million and tax rate of 17.5%.

公司成本和消除預計約為 10 億美元。此外，我們正在改善今年的利息支出和稅率預期，目前預計利息支出約為 8.5 億美元，稅率為 17.5%。

Taken together, we are raising our EPS guidance to $6 to $6.20, up $0.40 at the midpoint, from the prior guide. We are also raising our free cash flow guidance to $7.1 billion to $7.3 billion, up $500 million at the midpoint, primarily from higher earnings. We are all set to close out another excellent year in 2025 and well positioned for continued growth heading into 2026.

綜合來看，我們將每股盈餘預期上調至 6 美元至 6.20 美元，中間值較先前的預期上調 0.40 美元。我們也將自由現金流預期上調至 71 億美元至 73 億美元，中間值增加 5 億美元，主要得益於更高的收益。我們已準備好在 2025 年結束又一個出色的年份，並為 2026 年的持續成長做好準備。

With that, Larry, back to you.

好了，拉里，回到你身邊。

Rahul, thank you.

拉胡爾，謝謝你。

I'm encouraged by our progress this quarter, which builds upon our leadership positions across both Commercial and Defense and, in turn, supports the improved financial outlook we're sharing today.

我對本季的進展感到鼓舞，這鞏固了我們在商業和國防領域的領導地位，進而支持了我們今天分享的改善的財務前景。

GE Aerospace has sustained competitive advantages. With the industry's largest fleet, 78,000 engines and growing, we have accumulated over 2.3 billion flight hours and have certified seven commercial engine programs in the last 20 years. This experience base keeps us close to our customers and provides unmatched insights on performance, making us the partner of choice. We use these insights to continuously improve our services and products, delivering reliability, predictability, time on wing, and lower costs of ownership.

GE航空集團保持了持續的競爭優勢。我們擁有業內最大的機隊，擁有 78,000 台發動機，並且數量還在不斷增加，在過去 20 年中，我們已累計飛行超過 23 億小時，並認證了 7 個商用發動機項目。這項經驗基礎使我們與客戶保持密切聯繫，並提供了無與倫比的績效洞察力，使我們成為首選的合作夥伴。我們利用這些見解不斷改進我們的服務和產品，提供可靠性、可預測性、飛行時間和更低的擁有成本。

We offer the best-performing products underwing across our narrowbody, widebody, regional, and defense platforms. Our world-class engineering teams, combined with roughly $3 billion in annual R&D investment, drive next-gen technology to improve durability, efficiency, and turnaround times, along with advanced defense capabilities. And through FLIGHT DECK, we're turning strategy into results with a relentless focus on safety, quality, delivery, and cost, always in that order.

我們為窄體、寬體、區域和防禦平台提供性能最佳的機翼產品。我們擁有世界一流的工程團隊，每年投入約 30 億美元進行研發，推動下一代技術的發展，以提高耐用性、效率和周轉時間，並增強防禦能力。透過 FLIGHT DECK，我們將策略轉化為成果，始終堅持安全、品質、交付和成本的順序。

The GE Aerospace team is poised to deliver exceptional value to our customers and shareholders, and I'm confident in our path ahead.

GE 航太團隊準備為我們的客戶和股東提供卓越的價值，我對我們未來的道路充滿信心。

So with that, let's open it up to questions.

那麼，就讓我們開始提問吧。

Before we open the line, I'd ask everyone in the queue to consider your fellow analysts and ask one question so we can get to as many people as possible. Dustin, can you please open the line?

在我們開始通話之前，我要求排隊中的每個人都考慮一下你的同儕分析師，並提出一個問題，以便我們可以聯繫到盡可能多的人。達斯汀，你能接通電話嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies.

（操作員指示） Sheila Kahyaoglu，Jefferies。

Good morning. Good morning, Larry, Rahul, and Blaire.

早安.早上好，拉里、拉胡爾和布萊爾。

Morning, Sheila.

早安，希拉。

Thank you. Maybe if we could peel back the layers behind the services outperformance, up 25% year to date, which is pretty phenomenal, and on a dollar basis, up $750 million sequentially, Q3 versus Q2. So how much of that is pure volume unlock through FLIGHT DECK and the supply chain versus tariff price surcharges? Or any other factors that you would say play into it, and why the step down sequentially in Q4?

謝謝。也許我們可以揭開服務業優異表現背後的層次面紗，今年迄今為止，服務業增長了 25%，這是相當驚人的，按美元計算，第三季度與第二季度相比，環比增長了 7.5 億美元。那麼，其中有多少是透過 FLIGHT DECK 和供應鏈與關稅附加費實現的純數量解鎖呢？或者您認為還有其他因素影響這種情況，以及為什麼第四季會連續下降？

Yeah. Sheila, let me start. So we agree with you. We had a really strong quarter on services. We were expecting high-teens growth for the year, and year-to-date results, we are at about 25%. So now, we've raised the outlook for the year to be low to mid-20s growth. And the improved outlook is both in our shop visit revenue and in the spare parts. So a lot of that from the strength that we observed in the third quarter.

是的。希拉，讓我開始吧。所以我們同意你的看法。本季我們的服務業務表現非常強勁。我們預計今年的成長率將達到百分之十幾，而今年迄今的業績成長率約為 25%。因此現在，我們將今年的經濟成長預期上調至 25% 左右。我們的店內訪問收入和備件收入前景都有所改善。這很大程度源自於我們在第三季觀察到的強勁勢頭。

So if I start with the shop visits, we've had year-to-date growth of, call it, 22%. And what's driving that, as you hinted at, is improved material availability is driving higher volume. So that's a big piece of that.

因此，如果我從商店訪問量開始，那麼今年迄今為止我們的成長率已經達到了 22%。正如您所暗示的，推動這一趨勢的因素是材料可用性的提高，從而推動了產量的增加。這是其中很重要的一部分。

But along with that, the workscopes continue to increase, so that's helping as well. And the demand environment just continues to be strong. I mean, year to date, our inductions have outpaced output, even with the results that we have delivered. And this improvement in output is especially visible in LEAP. That is up 30% year to date. And part of that is the incremental capacity that we've set up for LEAP.

但同時，工作範圍也不斷增加，所以這也是有幫助的。需求環境持續強勁。我的意思是，今年到目前為止，即使我們已經取得了成果，我們的入職培訓速度也超過了產出速度。而這種產出的改善在 LEAP 中尤其明顯。今年迄今上漲 30%。其中一部分是我們為 LEAP 設定的增量容量。

On the spare parts, the year-to-date results have been equally strong, growth of more than 25%. Orders have remained strong, as Larry mentioned. Our orders services -- orders growth of greater than 30% year to date. But the improved material availability is now helping us achieve those orders and execute on the demand that we are seeing.

就備件而言，今年迄今的業績同樣強勁，成長超過 25%。正如拉里所提到的，訂單一直保持強勁。我們的訂單服務—今年迄今訂單成長超過 30%。但現在材料可用性的提高正在幫助我們實現這些訂單並滿足我們所看到的需求。

And as we look at the fourth quarter, our backlog still remains strong. 90% of the spare parts that we need to ship in the fourth quarter are in the backlog, which is 15 points higher than where we have been historically. So really strong external LEAP, shop visits up 2x is helping, with single-digit growth in total worldwide shop visits in CFM56 is helping. So all that -- so again, as we look at that, it's set us up for really well, not only for '25, but also for '26.

展望第四季度，我們的積壓訂單仍然強勁。第四季我們需要出貨的備件中有 90% 處於積壓狀態，比歷史水準高出 15 個百分點。因此，真正強勁的外部 LEAP、商店訪問量增加 2 倍是有幫助的，CFM56 全球商店訪問總量的個位數增長也是有幫助的。所以，所有這些 — — 所以，當我們再次審視這一點時，它為我們做好了充分的準備，不僅為 25 年，也為 26 年。

Now, as we think about the fourth quarter, we typically have a seasonal step-down in our third quarter to fourth-quarter revenue, largely driven by spare parts, because you don't expect the same level of improvement on material availability, a little bit of seasonality and demand. But still, if you step back and look at the full year, really strong year, and versus where we were in July, more than $1 billion of revenue increase in the services revenue, and that's a large part responsible for the incremental $450 million of guidance raised on profit for CES.

現在，當我們考慮第四季時，我們的第三季到第四季的收入通常會出現季節性下降，這主要是受備件的影響，因為你不會期望材料供應出現相同程度的改善，有一點季節性和需求的影響。但是，如果你回顧一下全年，你會發現這是一個非常強勁的一年，與 7 月份相比，服務收入增加了 10 多億美元，這在很大程度上推動了 CES 利潤預期增加 4.5 億美元。

Doug Harned, Bernstein.

道格·哈內德，伯恩斯坦。

Yes, good morning. Thank you.

是的，早安。謝謝。

Morning, Doug.

早安，道格。

Morning, Doug.

早安，道格。

You've been talking about the improvement in margin -- the margin outlook for LEAP on the services side to get up to sort of services overall margins once you get out to 2028. That's a strong trajectory, but could you talk about how you have -- what gives you confidence in that? Because you're still in the very early days of PRSVs, and I would expect really understanding what the cost is for full shop visits. So how do you think about that 2028 LEAP services margin, and how does price and cost factor in?

您一直在談論利潤率的提高——到 2028 年，LEAP 在服務方面的利潤率前景將達到服務業整體利潤率的水平。這是一個強勁的軌跡，但您能談談您是如何做到的——是什麼讓您對此充滿信心？因為您仍處於 PRSV 的早期階段，我希望您真正了解全面上門服務的成本是多少。那麼您如何看待 2028 年 LEAP 服務利潤率呢？價格和成本如何影響此因素？

Doug, I would say that the roadmap to 2028 with respect to LEAP really is something that we're looking to manage every day, really a combination of the field performance that you spoke to and, frankly, what we're doing in our own operations with FLIGHT DECK to make sure we not only have the material availability, the improvements of which you see here in the third-quarter financial results, but also in the underlying operational data points that Rahul just mentioned a moment ago.

道格，我想說，關於 LEAP 的 2028 年路線圖確實是我們每天都在管理的事情，它實際上是您提到的現場表現的結合，坦率地說，也是我們在 FLIGHT DECK 運營中所做的事情的結合，以確保我們不僅擁有材料可用性（您在第三季度財務結果中看到的改進），而且還擁有拉胡爾剛剛提到的基礎。

As we project that forward, I think we've been making the improvements in the supply base, in the field performance, witness, the durability kit with the 1A that's now in the field, very much, and the cost reductions as well, be they productivity, which material availability really does unlock in our shops, very much in line with our expectations. So there's a lot of work to do between now and 2028. But I think given the multiple levers that we have to pull and the underlying product improvements, that we have the conviction not only behind the strength of today's results, but the roadmap from here, both in terms of the eyes of investors, as you just framed it, as well as customers.

當我們預測這一未來時，我認為我們已經在供應基礎、現場性能、見證、現在在現場的 1A 的耐久性套件方面取得了很大進步，並且成本也降低了，無論是生產力，還是材料可用性確實在我們的商店中得到釋放，非常符合我們的預期。因此，從現在到 2028 年還有很多工作要做。但我認為，考慮到我們必須採取的多種措施以及潛在的產品改進，我們不僅有信心支撐今天的強勁業績，而且對今後的發展路線圖也充滿信心，無論是從投資者的角度來看，就像您剛才所說的那樣，還是從客戶的角度來看。

Rahul, anything you'd add there?

拉胡爾，您還有什麼要補充的嗎？

Larry, just maybe a couple of things to add here, Doug. Larry spoke about the FLIGHT DECK improvement. We spoke about all the improvements that we are driving this year in LEAP output. As we see ourselves to 2030, we expect this 30% year-over-year internal shop visit growth to continue. So the volume is going to be a big piece of that.

拉里，道格，也許我還需要補充幾件事。拉里談到了飛行甲板的改進。我們談到了今年我們在 LEAP 產出方面推動的所有改進。展望 2030 年，我們預計內部店鋪訪客將持續維持 30% 的年成長。因此，數量將是其中重要的一部分。

And as you think about the external channel, we spoke -- and I think Larry spoke earlier in his prepared remarks about the external channel being up 2x year over year -- I mean, that drives, that unlocks the spare parts revenue stream for us. So that's helping. We also spoke about the investments that we are making on repair technology. That reduces the cost of the shop visit in addition to unlocking our shop visit output.

當您考慮外部管道時，我們談到了——我認為拉里早些時候在他的準備好的發言中談到了外部管道同比增長 2 倍——我的意思是，這推動了、釋放了我們的備件收入來源。這很有幫助。我們也談到了我們在修復技術方面所做的投資。這不僅提高了我們的店訪產出，也降低了店訪成本。

So all those things are helping, and durability is kind of hanging in there. I think with the introduction of the durability kit, we are very confident of getting to CFM56 levels of performance on LEAP-1A, and then soon on 1B as we look forward to 2028. So all those things are what gives us confidence about the trajectory that we have on LEAP.

所以，所有這些因素都有幫助，而且耐用性也得以維持。我認為，隨著耐久性套件的推出，我們非常有信心在 LEAP-1A 上達到 CFM56 級別的性能，然後很快在 1B 上達到這一水平，我們期待 2028 年。所有這些都讓我們對 LEAP 的發展軌跡充滿信心。

Myles Walton, Wolfe Research.

邁爾斯·沃爾頓，沃爾夫研究公司。

Thanks. Good morning.

謝謝。早安.

Good morning, Myles.

早安，邁爾斯。

I was hoping to touch on capital deployment. The operations are all going fantastic. You're generating a ton of cash. The stock price is reflecting it. Where and how do you balance capital deployment, share repurchase in particular at this point, vis-à-vis your stock price? You haven't slowed down your pace. I imagine that gives us good indication that you still think there's good value there. But is the dial going to turn towards M&A at any point, do you think, in the nearer future?

我希望談及資本部署。手術一切進展順利。你正在賺大量的現金。股票價格反映了這一點。您目前在哪裡以及如何平衡資本部署（尤其是股票回購）與股票價格的關係？你還沒有放慢腳步。我想這很好地表明您仍然認為那裡很有價值。但是，您認為在不久的將來，趨勢是否會轉向併購？

Myles, I would say that the capital allocation approach that we and the Board have taken since the spin is very much intact. And I don't really see that changing materially anytime soon. We've talked about what we've described as a balanced approach, first and foremost, making sure we're reinvesting in the business to drive the technology improvements we've talked about here already on this call, which you know well, and the footprint required to support the growth.

邁爾斯，我想說，我們和董事會自分拆以來採取的資本配置方法非常完整。我確實不認為這種情況會很快發生實質的改變。我們已經討論了我們所描述的平衡方法，首先，確保我們對業務進行再投資，以推動我們在這次電話會議上已經討論過的技術改進，這一點你們很清楚，以及支持增長所需的足跡。

Of course, we are going to return capital to shareholders and reserve some when those M&A opportunities, large or small, come along that make sense. We're proud of the fact that we've increased our shareholder returns since the spin up, what, 4x. And as we said back in the summertime, we've increased our return of cash to shareholders to $24 billion in the '24 to '26 period, which is, I think, up 20% from where we were at the spin.

當然，當出現有意義的併購機會（無論大小）時，我們都會向股東返還資本並保留一些。我們很自豪，自公司成立以來，我們的股東回報率增加了 4 倍。正如我們在夏天所說的那樣，我們在 2024 年至 2026 年期間將股東現金回報增加到 240 億美元，我認為這比我們分拆時增加了 20%。

So from an M&A perspective, we want to make sure we're looking at anything and everything that might make sense in the neighborhood. But investors should continue to see from us a disciplined approach where we really look to strategic fit, then operational value add, and in turn, financial returns. So your question, I think, recognizes the tremendous capacity that we have. But again, organic reinvestment, return of capital to shareholders will be the first two priorities.

因此，從併購的角度來看，我們希望確保我們正在考慮任何可能對週邊環境有意義的事情。但投資人應該繼續從我們身上看到一種嚴謹的方法，我們真正關注的是策略契合度，然後是營運價值的增加，進而是財務回報。所以我認為，你的問題承認了我們擁有的巨大能力。但同樣，有機再投資、向股東返還資本將是首要任務。

But that gives us still, I think, ample room, given the cash flow projections that we have here, to look at things that fortify our existing positions. You saw here in the quarter something that we're really excited about, our $300 million investment in BETA Technologies, a company that some people are well aware of, others maybe not so much. But we really like the team. We like the underlying technology and our collaboration to co-develop a hybrid electric turbo generator, we think, will yield benefit to both of us, both in defense applications and ultimately in the commercial space.

但我認為，考慮到我們現有的現金流預測，這仍然給了我們充足的空間來研究鞏固我們現有地位的事物。您在本季看到了一些讓我們非常興奮的事情，我們對 BETA Technologies 進行了 3 億美元的投資，有些人對這家公司很了解，但其他人可能不太了解。但我們真的很喜歡這支球隊。我們喜歡底層技術，我們認為，我們合作開發混合電動渦輪發電機將為我們雙方帶來利益，無論是在國防應用方面，還是最終在商業領域。

Seth Seifman, JPMorgan.

塞思‧塞夫曼，摩根大通。

Thanks very much, and good morning, everyone.

非常感謝，大家早安。

Morning, Seth.

早安，塞斯。

Morning, Seth.

早安，塞斯。

I wanted to zero in on the spares performance a little bit within services, and kind of given our, I think, usual starting point for how to think about spares is like departure growth. And so outpacing that by a bit, and also dramatically outpacing the outlook that you had for 2025 at the start of the year.

我想稍微關註一下服務中的備件性能，並且考慮到我們考慮備件的通常起點是出發增長。因此，這一速度略有超出，也大大超出了年初對 2025 年的預測。

So when we think about what's driving that, is it all material availability? Is there a part of that that comes from outfitting LEAP shops out in the network? And if so, what's kind of the tail on that that allows spares growth to kind of exceed that underlying departure level? And also, given the mix of engines that do internal shop visits versus the mix of engines that are not on internal plants, should we think about CFM56 being the main driver of spares growth?

那麼，當我們思考是什麼推動了這個趨勢時，是否所有因素都是材料的可用性？其中是否有一部分來自網路中 LEAP 商店的裝備？如果是這樣，那麼什麼樣的尾部因素使得備件成長能夠超過潛在的出發水平？此外，考慮到進行內部車間維修的引擎與不在內部工廠維修的引擎的組合，我們是否應該認為 CFM56 是備件成長的主要驅動力？

Yeah. So Seth, let me start here. I think you had a lot of the data points that actually drove the performance kind of in your question here.

是的。那麼塞斯，讓我從這裡開始。我認為您在問題中提出的許多數據點實際上推動了性能的發展。

So if you start unpacking that, I think if you look at the spare parts performance, obviously, we spoke to the orders growth. Orders has remained really strong. And what's driving the orders growth, besides the increase in departures where you started, is a lot of pent-up demand. If you look at the number of shop visits that will be done in 2025 globally, worldwide shop visits, that's still below where we were in 2019. So the worldwide shop visits still have not recovered to the 2019 level. So there's a lot of pent-up demand here on volume. And that's a big piece on why the total demand is kind of outpacing the departures growth.

因此，如果你開始解開這個問題，我認為如果你看看備件的表現，顯然，我們談到了訂單的成長。訂單一直保持強勁。除了出發數量增加之外，推動訂單成長的還有大量被壓抑的需求。如果你看一下 2025 年全球的商店訪問次數，那麼全球商店訪問次數仍然低於 2019 年的水平。因此，全球商店客流量仍未恢復到2019年的水準。因此，這裡存在著大量被壓抑的需求。這也是為什麼總需求的成長速度超過出發人數的成長速度的一個重要原因。

The second is the increase in workscopes. So we've been talking about increase in workscopes both internally and externally. So if you look at GE90 as an example, the GE90 is now going -- 70% of the shop visits haven't gone in for a second shop visit. So we're beginning to see the second shop visits come through. And that could be 60% to 70% heavier than the first shop visit. So that's -- the increase in workscopes is a big piece. And the same thing is happening on LEAP; the same thing is happening on nx.

第二是工作範圍的增加。因此，我們一直在談論增加內部和外部的工作範圍。因此，如果以 GE90 為例，GE90 現在已經——70% 的進店客戶都沒有進行第二次進店。因此，我們開始看到第二次商店訪問的到來。這可能比第一次去商店要重 60% 到 70%。所以，工作範圍的增加是一個很大的因素。同樣的事情也發生在 LEAP 上；同樣的事情也發生在 nx 上。

You spoke about material availability. I think that's an unlock here as well because we've spoken about a delinquency continuing to increase. And our output has been increasing, but we are still behind on meeting demand. And that continued even into this quarter, even with the spare parts growth impact. So I think all of that is kind of driving this.

您談到了材料可用性。我認為這也是一種解鎖，因為我們已經談到了拖欠率持續上升的情況。我們的產量一直在增加，但仍然無法滿足需求。即使受到備件成長的影響，這種情況也一直持續到本季。所以我認為所有這些都在推動這一進程。

And as we look forward into '26, we still expect that -- we expect departures growth of where we have been in 2025, kind of 3% to 4%. But the number of engines that will come off wing are going to be up double digits. So we do expect this kind of difference between departure growth and spare parts demand to continue for a while, just given everything I've said, plus the engines that are going to come off wing.

展望 2026 年，我們仍然預期－我們預計離境人數的成長將與 2025 年持平，約為 3% 至 4%。但機翼下發動機的數量將增加兩位數。因此，考慮到我所說的一切，再加上即將脫落的發動機，我們確實預計出發成長和備件需求之間的這種差異將持續一段時間。

So hopefully that answers the question.

希望這能回答這個問題。

Scott Deuschle, Deutsche Bank.

史考特‧德施勒，德意志銀行。

Hey. Good morning.

嘿。早安.

Good morning, Scott.

早安，史考特。

Rahul, would you be able to share any of your current thinking on 2026 at this point, particularly as it relates to CES revenue growth and then margins as well? But also, I guess, just more broadly on anything you think is important for us to keep in mind as we sharpen the pencil on 2026.

拉胡爾，您能否分享一下您目前對 2026 年的想法，特別是與 CES 收入成長和利潤率相關的想法？但我想，在我們制定 2026 年計劃時，您認為我們應該更廣泛地考慮所有重要的事情。

Okay. Let me start, and Larry, please jump in here.

好的。讓我開始吧，拉里，請加入。

As we think about '26, Scott, first, and especially on the commercial side, the environment today feels better than where we were three months ago. I mean, three months ago, we were expecting second-half departure growth to be kind of flat to maybe low-single digits. Now, it's solidly in the 3% to 4% range. So I think the air traffic growth has stabilized. So '26 feels a little bit better than where we were a couple of months back.

史考特，首先，當我們思考 26 年，特別是在商業方面，今天的環境比三個月前好。我的意思是，三個月前，我們預計下半年離境人數的成長將持平至低個位數。現在，這一比例穩定在 3% 到 4% 的範圍內。所以我認為空中交通量成長已經穩定下來。因此，26 年的感覺比幾個月前要好一些。

But the more important part here, and it goes partially back to Seth's question a minute ago, is the basic algorithm of the demand and performance on the CES business has not changed. Install base is growing, both on the widebody and on the narrowbody side. As I said, in response to Seth's question, the number of engines that need a shop visit is projected to be up double digits in '26, just based on the number of cycles that they've already flown. And that will add to the demand that's out there. And then the workscopes on widebody, low-single-digit kind of net price increase that we are expecting, which seems reasonable. So we do expect the services business to continue to our overall growth.

但這裡更重要的部分，部分回到 Seth 剛才的問題，是 CES 業務的需求和效能的基本演算法沒有改變。寬體飛機和窄體飛機的安裝基數都在成長。正如我在回答 Seth 的問題時所說的那樣，僅根據已經飛行過的循環次數，預計 26 年需要進廠維修的引擎數量將增加兩位數。這將增加市場需求。然後是寬體飛機的工作範圍，我們預計淨價格將出現低個位數的成長，這似乎是合理的。因此，我們確實預期服務業務將繼續推動我們的整體成長。

And then as we get into -- as you think about specifically on the '26 growth, we don't expect a repeat of the '25 performance. We don't expect '25 growth to be -- '26 growth to be kind of at the '25 levels. But it'll start normalizing towards our double-digit levels that we had projected over the medium term.

然後，當我們進入 - 當你具體思考 26 年的成長時，我們預計 25 年的表現不會重複。我們預計 2025 年的成長速度不會達到 2025 年的水準。但它將開始正常化，朝著我們預測的中期兩位數水準發展。

And then on the new business, new equipment business, obviously, the backlog is very strong. And we expect, call it, 2,000 LEAP engine shipments and then incremental 9X shipments here, because our volume assumptions on 9X have not changed since we were together back in July. And we do expect 9X losses to kind of double on a year-over-year basis, or more than double on a year over year basis, as we think about 26. So that will offset some of the positive drop through that we will see from services. And then DPT, I think we expect continued mid-single-digit revenue growth, some margin expansion that we outplayed back in July.

然後就新業務、新設備業務而言，顯然積壓訂單非常強勁。我們預計 LEAP 引擎的出貨量為 2,000 台，然後是 9X 的增量出貨量，因為自 7 月我們在一起以來，我們對 9X 的銷售假設沒有改變。我們確實預計 9X 的損失將比去年同期翻一番，或者同比翻一番以上，正如我們所想的 26。因此，這將抵消我們在服務業中看到的一些積極下降。然後是 DPT，我認為我們預計收入將繼續保持中等個位數成長，利潤率也將有所擴大，這在 7 月就已經超過了。

So you put all that together, productivity is a plus, but we're facing inflation, we have the 9X losses, so we expect kind of margin expansion opportunities to be limited here. But we are optimistic as we look at '26. We expect revenue growth, strong revenue growth, profit growth, cash, and we think of '26 kind of as a step along the way to 2028. So that's our current thinking, obviously, to put a sharper point on it.

所以把所有這些放在一起，生產力是一個優勢，但我們面臨通貨膨脹，我們有 9 倍的損失，所以我們預計這裡的利潤擴張機會將受到限制。但展望 26 年，我們仍持樂觀態度。我們預計營收將成長，營收將強勁成長，利潤將成長，現金將增加，我們認為 2026 年是邁向 2028 年的一步。所以，顯然，這是我們目前的想法，要對此提出更尖銳的觀點。

Larry, anything to add?

拉里，還有什麼要補充的嗎？

No. Just maybe that we're just in the process of wrapping up our strategy reviews. We'll spend the fourth quarter working through the details of the '26 budget. I think Rahul did a nice job there providing the general contours of that work that is underway. We'll take the Board through it at the end of the year, and then we'll come back at earnings and talk about '26 in more detail. It's basically our practice here.

不。也許我們正處於完成戰略評估的過程中。我們將用第四季度的時間來制定 26 年預算的細節。我認為拉胡爾做得很好，提供了正在進行的工作的整體輪廓。我們將在年底向董事會提交該報告，然後我們將回顧收益並更詳細地討論 26 年的情況。這基本上就是我們在這裡的做法。

But I think net-net, we're more or less in line with the '28 framework we talked about back in July, with a lot of good tailwinds in terms of the demand environment and clearly operational momentum building with FLIGHT DECK. But those two dynamics together, I think that's what you're going to see come January.

但我認為，總體而言，我們或多或少符合我們 7 月份討論的 28 框架，在需求環境方面有很多良好的順風，並且 FLIGHT DECK 的營運勢頭明顯增強。但將這兩種動態結合起來，我想這就是你將在一月份看到的。

Ronald Epstein, Bank of America.

美國銀行的羅納德·愛潑斯坦。

Yeah, hey. Good morning, everyone.

是啊，嘿。大家早安。

Good morning, Ron.

早安，羅恩。

Maybe just changing gears a little bit. You called out the work you all are doing on the hybrid electric turbo generator and implications that might have for defense. And your defense business grew quite well during the quarter and also last quarter.

也許只是稍微改變一下節奏。你們強調了你們在混合電動渦輪發電機所做的工作以及這可能對國防的影響。你們的國防業務在本季和上個季度都成長得很好。

Can you speak to maybe -- can we pull back and get some detail on kind of what you all are doing in defense and maybe what -- from an R&D perspective? And then maybe more importantly, and this is really a question you'd ask the other way around, but what lessons have you all learned in commercial, given the size of the fleet and all the experience you have with commercial engines that you can then apply in the defense world where most other defense contractors just don't have that experience base?

您能否談談－我們可以回顧一下，從研發角度詳細了解你們在國防方面所做的工作嗎？然後也許更重要的是，這實際上是一個你會反過來問的問題，但是考慮到機隊的規模和你們在商用發動機方面的所有經驗，你們在商業領域學到了什麼教訓，然後可以應用到國防領域，而大多數其他國防承包商都沒有這樣的經驗基礎？

Well, Ron, if I maybe take those in reverse order, a lot of the work that you see, or a lot of the work that we've referenced vis-a-vis supply chain with our team in FLIGHT DECK courses through the results, both on the commercial side and on the defense side. Talk about a quarter where you've got revenues up 26%, profit up 75%. Of note, the defense engine output was up 83%. We hung an eight handle on that for the second quarter in a row, I believe.

好吧，羅恩，如果我可以反過來看的話，你看到的很多工作，或者我們在 FLIGHT DECK 課程中與我們的團隊一起參考的關於供應鏈的很多工作，都是通過商業方面和國防方面的結果得出的。假設某個季度你的營收成長了 26%，利潤成長了 75%。值得注意的是，國防引擎產量增加了83%。我相信，我們已經連續第二季取得了第八個成績。

That really speaks, I think, to the strength of the backlog there. Maybe some of the underperformance a year ago, but the just outstanding work that the teams have done, leveraging a lot of what we've done in commercial and, in turn, the shared supply base. When we look at what we could do, if you will, more commercially, I think we are keen to take advantage of the moment at the Pentagon to share some of our best practices with respect to moving at pace through development cycles, perhaps in how we think about sustainment models to be creative and be responsive to some of the investment and budgetary realities that are out there.

我認為這確實說明了那裡積壓的貨物數量之多。也許一年前表現不佳，但團隊所做的工作非常出色，充分利用了我們在商業領域以及共享供應基礎上所做的大量工作。當我們考慮我們可以做什麼時，如果你願意，從商業角度來說，我認為我們渴望利用五角大樓的時機來分享我們在快速推進開發週期方面的一些最佳實踐，也許在我們如何思考維持模式以使其富有創造力並對現有的一些投資和預算現實做出反應方面。

Ron, you know well that the investment that we've seen, that we've put into the business, both government funded and our own, has been concentrated on next-gen platforms, be they sixth-gen propulsion in conjunction with the NGAP program with an eye toward both the opportunities with the Air Force and the Navy, but everything that we're doing to upgrade the Apaches and the Black Hawks with the ITEP, the T901 engine. So there's a lot that's in progress with respect to future platforms.

羅恩，你很清楚，我們所看到的，我們所投入的業務，無論是政府資助的還是我們自己的，都集中在下一代平台上，無論是與 NGAP 計劃相結合的第六代推進系統，著眼於空軍和海軍的機會，但我們所做的一切都是為了用 ITEP、T901 發動機直升機升級和黑鷹。因此，未來平台方面還有很多工作正在進行中。

I think some real opportunities not only to fulfill this incredible backlog that we have in defense, but at the same time, rethink some of the business models, either internal to our customers or in collaboration with them. But here and now, making sure that we are reducing the delinquency, servicing the backlog, as Rahul mentioned a moment ago, and fortunately, the good work that's driving the results on the commercial side are helping us out a great deal on the defense side as well.

我認為，真正的機會不僅在於解決我們在國防領域積壓的大量訂單，同時，還要重新思考一些商業模式，無論是客戶內部的還是與他們合作的。但就目前而言，正如拉胡爾剛才提到的那樣，我們要確保減少拖欠，處理積壓案件，幸運的是，在商業方面取得成果的良好工作也在國防方面為我們提供了很大的幫助。

Robert Stallard, Vertical Research.

羅伯特‧斯托拉德 (Robert Stallard)，垂直研究。

Thanks so much. Good morning.

非常感謝。早安.

Good morning. Robert.

早安.羅伯特。

Quick question for Larry. You mentioned durability a number of times in your initial comments. I just want to -- following up from that, how the initial performance has been on that new blade on the LEAP-1A? And how long is it going to take to roll that blade out across the install base? Thank you.

向 Larry 提問。您在最初的評論中多次提到耐用性。我只是想——接下來，LEAP-1A 上的新葉片的初始性能如何？那麼將該刀片推到安裝基座上需要多長時間？謝謝。

Well, we're very pleased with the performance of the durability kit on the LEAP-1A, the new blade of which is at the heart of that durability kit. We think that will drive a 2x improvement, I think 8,000 cycles in harsh environments, I think 17,000 cycles in neutral environments. So so far, so good. No surprises in that regard, given the testing. We're in the certification process on the LEAP-1B equivalent and are expecting to see that come through the pipeline in the first half of next year.

嗯，我們對 LEAP-1A 上的耐久性套件的性能非常滿意，其中的新葉片是這個耐久性套件的核心。我們認為這將帶來 2 倍的改進，我認為在惡劣環境下可以進行 8,000 次循環，在中性環境下可以進行 17,000 次循環。到目前為止，一切都很好。根據測試結果，這並不令人意外。我們正在進行 LEAP-1B 等效系統的認證過程，預計明年上半年將完成。

So I think, again, we're encouraged by what we are seeing in that regard. It's probably a multi-year effort, Robert, to upgrade the install base. Certainly, having the LEAP-1A durability kit in production helps in that regard. We're tending to the aftermarket now, and we'll do the same thing with Boeing once we're on the other side of certification.

因此，我認為，我們對此方面所看到的情況感到鼓舞。羅伯特，升級安裝基礎可能需要多年的努力。當然，LEAP-1A 耐久性套件的投入生產在這方面有所幫助。我們現在正致力於售後市場，一旦我們獲得認證，我們將與波音公司做同樣的事情。

So I'd say no surprises to date. A lot of work still ahead of us, but fundamentally encouraged by the impact that we'll have on durability and, in turn, the performance for our customers.

所以我想說到目前為止沒有什麼意外。我們面前還有許多工作要做，但從根本上來說，我們對耐用性以及客戶性能的影響令人鼓舞。

Gautam Khanna, TD Cowen.

高塔姆·卡納（Gautam Khanna），TD Cowen。

Thanks. Good morning, guys.

謝謝。大家早安。

Morning, Gautam.

早上好，高塔姆。

Good morning.

早安.

Hey, I was wondering if you could elaborate on where you're seeing the greatest improvement in supply chain material availability, because it's been pretty consistent year to date. Has there been any breakthroughs? Or if you could just give us some color inside baseball, please. Thanks.

嘿，我想知道您是否可以詳細說明您看到供應鏈材料可用性在哪些方面有了最大的改善，因為今年到目前為止，情況一直相當穩定。有沒有什麼突破？或者，如果您能為我們介紹一下棒球界的一些情況，謝謝。謝謝。

Yes. Well, it's hard to say that we have seen a breakthrough. I really think it is the cumulative, the compounding effect of all the good work that's been underway with intensity and urgency over the last 18-plus months, particularly with the supply base. If you segment where we're seeing that improvement, widebody versus narrowbody, legacy platforms versus new platforms, large suppliers that you would know by name, someone to call my own versus smaller companies you may have never heard of, I can't pull any major theme out because we depend on all of them. And this has been a universal challenge as the airframers have been ramping, the aftermarket given airline demand doing the same, and again, a third stream in the form of defense demand pulling on us and our supply chain.

是的。嗯，很難說我們已經看到突破了。我確實認為這是過去 18 個多月來一直在緊張和緊迫地開展的所有良好工作的累積和復合效應，特別是在供應基地方面。如果您對我們看到的改進進行細分，寬體與窄體、傳統平台與新平台、您知道名字的大型供應商、我自己的公司與您可能從未聽說過的小公司，我無法提出任何主要主題，因為我們依賴所有這些。這是一個普遍的挑戰，因為飛機製造商一直在加大生產，售後市場對航空公司的需求也在增加，而國防需求也對我們和我們的供應鏈產生了影響。

I think the common denominator is where we've been able to go in around these priority suppliers, which are either current constraints or anticipated bottlenecks, and really getting out on the factory floor, staring down a problem on a machine, an assembly line, whether it be throughput, whether it be yields, what have you, and really driving deep problem solving that's truly collaborative, our best engineers with our suppliers' best engineers, not trying to negotiate there on the factory floor, but to identify the problem, contain it in the short term, and put in permanent corrective action going forward.

我認為共同點在於，我們能夠繞過這些優先供應商，無論是當前的限制因素還是預期的瓶頸，真正走進工廠車間，直面機器、裝配線上的問題，無論是吞吐量、產量還是其他什麼，真正推動真正協作的深度問題解決，我們最好的工程師與供應商最好的工程師，不是試圖在工廠車間談判，而是識別問題，在短期內採取永久性問題，在短期內採取永久性的措施並糾正未來。

There are fits and starts that we manage in that regard every day, every week, but I think we've gotten better at that. And going forward, we want to be not just excellent in that near-term problem solving, but we want to make sure we're investing time and talent in getting out ahead of those sorts of issues, both in the medium and long term. So as we look at readiness going into '26, let alone some of the longer-term conversations that we might have, say, with Airbus as they talk about rate 75 and the path there as Boeing now has the latitude to go up to the next rate break, making sure that we've got visibility and that we're communicating the same with our airframer partners is just critical for our planning purposes and theirs.

我們每天、每週都會在這方面遇到一些問題，但我認為我們已經做得更好了。展望未來，我們不僅希望在短期問題解決方面表現出色，而且我們希望確保在中期和長期投入時間和人才來解決這些問題。因此，當我們考慮進入 26 年的準備情況時，更不用說我們可能進行的一些長期對話，例如與空中巴士討論 75 費率及其路徑，因為波音現在有權提高到下一個費率突破，確保我們具有可見性，並且我們與飛機製造商合作夥伴進行同樣的溝通，這對於我們的規劃目的和他們的規劃目的都至關重要。

So no one breakthrough other than just the relentless application with urgency of our FLIGHT DECK tools deep into the supply base wherever we have a constraint or bottleneck. It's that simple and that hard.

因此，除了堅持不懈地緊急使用我們的飛行甲板工具深入供應基地遇到的限製或瓶頸之外，沒有其他突破。就這麼簡單，又這麼難。

Dustin, we have time for one last question.

達斯汀，我們還有時間問最後一個問題。

Scott Mikus, Melius Research.

米庫斯 (Scott Mikus)，Melius Research。

Good morning, Larry and Rahul.

早上好，拉里和拉胡爾。

Good morning.

早安.

Quick question on commercial aftermarket revenue growth. I mean, historically for the industry, it's been strongly correlated with flight activity and ASK growth, but the commercial services revenue growth has continued to re-accelerate despite the deceleration in ASK growth.

關於商業售後市場收入成長的快速問題。我的意思是，從歷史上看，對於該行業來說，它與飛行活動和 ASK 成長密切相關，但儘管 ASK 成長放緩，商業服務收入成長仍在繼續加速。

So just has anything structurally changed about the business model that could cause your aftermarket growth to decouple or sustainably outperform ASK growth over the long term? Or is it simply just strength driven by heavier workscopes, better throughput because of a healthier supply chain, and the FLIGHT DECK productivity?

那麼，商業模式是否發生了結構性變化，從而導致售後市場成長與 ASK 成長脫鉤或長期持續超越 ASK 成長？或者它只是由更重的工作範圍、更健康的供應鏈帶來的更好的吞吐量以及飛行甲板生產力所驅動的實力？

Yeah, Scott. So I think Seth had a similar question earlier in the call. So I think some of the things that I said earlier, I'll kind of touch upon. A lot of this, with the disconnect that we're seeing with our demand outlook and the departure of growth goes fundamentally back to the pent-up demand on kind of shop visits. As I said earlier, shop visits in '25 are going to be below 2019 levels. The increase in workscopes that we are seeing, especially on the widebody side, both on GE90, on GEnx, as those migrate to the next level of shop visit, so that's a big piece of that.

是的，斯科特。所以我認為塞斯在早些時候的通話中也提出過類似的問題。所以我想我會稍微談談我之前說過的一些事情。我們看到的需求前景與成長前景脫節，而這種脫節從根本上可以歸因於商店訪問中被壓抑的需求。正如我之前所說，25 年的商店訪問量將低於 2019 年的水平。我們看到工作範圍不斷增加，特別是在寬體飛機方面，無論是 GE90 還是 GEnx，因為它們都遷移到了下一級別的車間訪問，所以這是其中很重要的一部分。

The growth of our external LEAP channel, we spoke earlier about LEAP channel, LEAP external shop visits being up 2x in the quarter. As we think longer term for the year, we expect LEAP external shop visits to be kind of in the mid-teens, slightly above that range. And as we project that to 2030, we expect that to be [25%](corrected by company after the call). So that will drive a huge amount of spare parts growth, not only to the LEAP shop visits ramp, but also the participation of external channel growth. And then you combine that with a little bit of price increase that we drive every year.

我們的外部 LEAP 管道的成長，我們之前談到過 LEAP 管道，LEAP 外部商店訪問量在本季度增長了 2 倍。從長遠來看，我們預計今年 LEAP 外部商店訪問量將達到十幾歲左右，略高於該範圍。當我們預測到 2030 年時，我們預計[25%]（公司在電話溝通後已更正）。如此一來，備件需求量將大幅成長，不僅能帶動LEAP門市訪問量的攀升，還能帶動外部通路的參與度成長。然後你再把它與我們每年推動的一點點價格上漲結合起來。

So I think those are the fundamental reasons why we are seeing this increase in demand. It's pent-up demand, workscopes, and then growth of external channel.

所以我認為這些就是我們看到需求成長的根本原因。這是被壓抑的需求、工作範圍，然後是外部管道的成長。

Larry, any final comments?

拉里，還有什麼要說的嗎？

Blaire, thank you. Yeah, just to close, GE Aerospace is an exceptional franchise with enduring competitive strengths and a clear path for continued value creation. Our updated outlook today reflects growing confidence in that trajectory as we deliver for our customers, our shareholders, and the flying public.

布萊爾，謝謝你。是的，最後，通用電氣航空航太公司是一家卓越的特許經營企業，擁有持久的競爭優勢和持續創造價值的明確途徑。我們今天更新的展望反映了我們對這一發展軌跡日益增長的信心，因為我們為客戶、股東和飛行公眾提供服務。

We appreciate your time this morning and your interest in GE Aerospace.

我們感謝您今天早上抽出時間以及對 GE 航空航天的關注。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝各位，女士們、先生們。今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。