奇異 (GE) 2025 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the GE Aerospace first-quarter 2025 earnings conference call. (Operator Instructions) My name is Liz, and I will be your conference coordinator today. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

女士們、先生們，大家好，歡迎參加 GE 航空航天 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。（操作員指示）我叫 Liz，今天我將擔任您的會議協調員。（操作員指示）提醒一下，本次會議正在錄音。

I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today's conference, Blaire Shoor, from the GE Aerospace Investor Relations Team. Please proceed.

現在，我想將節目交給今天會議的主持人、通用電氣航空航太投資者關係團隊的布萊爾舒爾 (Blaire Shoor)。請繼續。

Thanks, Liz. Welcome to GE Aerospace's first-quarter 2025 earnings call. I'm joined by Chairman and CEO, Larry Culp; and CFO, Rahul Ghai.

謝謝，莉茲。歡迎參加 GE 航空航太 2025 年第一季財報電話會議。與我一起出席的還有董事長兼執行長 Larry Culp；和財務長 Rahul Ghai。

Many of the statements we're making are forward looking and based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. As described in our SEC filings and website, those elements may change as the world changes. Additionally, Larry and Rahul, consistent with prior quarters, will speak to total company and corporate financial results and guidance today on a non-GAAP basis.

我們所做的許多聲明都具有前瞻性，並且基於我們對當今世界和我們業務的最佳看法。正如我們向美國證券交易委員會提交的文件和網站中所述，這些要素可能會隨著世界的變化而改變。此外，與前幾個季度一樣，拉里和拉胡爾今天將以非 GAAP 為基礎介紹公司和企業的整體財務表現和指導。

Larry, over to you.

拉里，交給你了。

Blaire, thanks, and good morning, everyone.

布萊爾，謝謝，大家早安。

While a lot has happened since January, we at GE Aerospace remain focused on our purpose. Our team works daily to invent the future of flight, lift people up, and bring them home safely. Those last four words ring true to us, given right now there are nearly 1 million people in the sky with our technology under wing. This is an incredible responsibility and one that we take very seriously.

儘管自一月以來發生了很多事情，但 GE 航空航太集團仍然專注於我們的目標。我們的團隊每天都在努力創造飛行的未來，讓人們飛上天空，並且安全地回家。最後這四個字對我們來說是真實的，因為現在有近 100 萬人在我們的技術的幫助下在天空中飛行。這是一個重大的責任，我們對此非常重視。

With safety at our core, we're advancing our vision to be the company that defines flight for today, tomorrow, and the future. Today, we're focused on service and readiness, keeping our customers' fleets flying. For tomorrow, we're delivering the ramp and executing our $170 billion-plus backlog. And for the future, we're advancing the technology that will define the future of flight across both commercial and defense with approximately $3 billion in annual R&D spending.

我們以安全為核心，不斷推進我們的願景，成為一家定義今天、明天和未來飛行的公司。今天，我們專注於服務和準備，確保客戶的機隊能夠正常飛行。明天，我們將建造坡道並執行我們 1700 多億美元的積壓任務。展望未來，我們每年將投入約 30 億美元的研發資金，推進決定商業和國防飛行未來的技術。

FLIGHT DECK, our proprietary lean operating model, is how we translate that strategy into results. Launched a year ago, we're activating FLIGHT DECK to deliver for our customers and create long-term value for our shareholders.

FLIGHT DECK 是我們專有的精實營運模式，它是我們將該策略轉化為成果的方式。一年前推出後，我們啟動了 FLIGHT DECK，為客戶提供服務並為股東創造長期價值。

Turning to the first quarter, GE Aerospace delivered a strong start to the year. Orders were up 12% and revenue grew 11%, with double-digit growth in both services and equipment. Profit was up $2.1 billion, up 38%, with contributions from both segments, leading to margins of 23.8%. Overall, we delivered $1.49 of EPS, up 60% year over year, and free cash flow was $1.4 billion.

展望第一季度，GE航空航太集團今年取得了強勁開局。訂單成長 12%，營收成長 11%，服務和設備均達到兩位數成長。利潤增加 21 億美元，增幅達 38%，兩個部門的貢獻使利潤率達到 23.8%。總體而言，我們的每股收益為 1.49 美元，年增 60%，自由現金流為 14 億美元。

In Commercial Engines & Services, or CES, we're servicing and growing the industry's most extensive commercial install base. Services strength continued, with orders up 31% and revenue up 17%, driving total operating profit growth of 35% year over year.

在商用引擎與服務（CES）領域，我們正在服務並發展業界最廣泛的商用安裝基礎。服務業務持續保持強勁成長，訂單量成長 31%，營收成長 17%，推動總營業利潤年增 35%。

In Defense & Propulsion Technologies, or DPT, we're improving the delivery of our leading defense programs while developing mission-critical technology. The first quarter was solid, with defense units growing 5% and profit increasing 16%. My thanks go out to all of our 53,000 employees around the world for delivering, once again, for our customers.

在國防與推進技術（DPT）領域，我們正在改進我們領先的國防計畫的交付，同時開發關鍵任務技術。第一季表現穩健，國防部門成長 5%，獲利成長 16%。我向全球 53,000 名員工表示感謝，感謝他們再次為我們的客戶提供服務。

Moving to slide 5. GE Aerospace supports efforts to revitalize domestic manufacturing, and it's why we're investing $1 billion in US manufacturing this year and hiring over 5,000 US workers. At the same time, we support promoting free and fair trade. It ensures the continued strength of the US aerospace industry.

移至投影片 5。GE 航空航太支持振興國內製造業的努力，這就是我們今年向美國製造業投資 10 億美元並僱用 5,000 多名美國工人的原因。同時，我們支持促進自由和公平貿易。它確保了美國航空航天工業的持續強勁。

Our industry has a nearly $75 billion trade surplus, the highest trade balance of any sector, and exports more than $135 billion of products each year. This is possible because the global aviation sector has long operated without tariffs on civil aircraft, engines, and avionics. As the US administration engages in discussions with its trade partners, we'll continue to advocate for an approach that re-establishes zero-for-zero tariffs in the aviation sector and ensures a level playing field for the US aerospace industry.

我們的產業擁有近 750 億美元的貿易順差，是所有產業中貿易平衡最高的，每年出口超過 1,350 億美元的產品。這是可能的，因為全球航空業長期以來對民用飛機、發動機和航空電子設備都免關稅。在美國政府與貿易夥伴進行討論之際，我們將繼續倡導在航空領域重新建立零關稅，確保美國航空航太業擁有公平的競爭環境。

In the meantime, heightened tariffs will result in additional costs for us and our supply chain. We're leveraging available programs the administration is providing businesses, such as duty drawbacks, along with other strategies to optimize our operations, like expanding foreign trade zones. With those actions, we expect to reduce the tariff costs to roughly $500 million. We're taking additional actions to offset this remaining impact. This includes controlling costs while maintaining investments in key priorities and pricing actions.

同時，提高關稅將為我們和我們的供應鏈帶來額外的成本。我們正在利用政府為企業提供的現有計劃，例如關稅減免，以及其他策略來優化我們的運營，例如擴大對外貿易區。透過這些行動，我們預計關稅成本將減少至約 5 億美元。我們正在採取額外措施來抵消這項剩餘影響。這包括控製成本，同時保持對關鍵優先事項和定價行動的投資。

Departures remain favorable in the quarter, up 4% in line with our expectations. Given strong orders growth over the last several quarters, our commercial services backlog has grown out to over $140 billion. We've had a lag in converting those orders to revenue given the broader supply chain dynamics.

本季離職率依然良好，成長 4%，符合我們的預期。鑑於過去幾季訂單的強勁成長，我們的商業服務積壓訂單已成長至1,400多億美元。考慮到更廣泛的供應鏈動態，我們在將這些訂單轉化為收入方面存在滯後。

Our spare parts delinquency continues to increase, unfortunately, up over two times year over year. And our internal shop visit slots are full, with a healthy pipeline of engines which have been removed but not yet inducted into our shops.

不幸的是，我們的備件拖欠率持續增加，比去年同期成長了兩倍多。而且我們的內部車間訪問時段已滿，有大量已拆除但尚未送入車間的引擎。

So far, second-quarter departures are shaping up more or less in line with the first quarter. We're taking a more cautious approach and embedding a slower second half in our estimate, resulting in departures up low-single digits for the full year. This includes a reduction in North American departures, which make up about 25% of the total.

到目前為止，第二季的離職情況與第一季基本一致。我們採取了更謹慎的態度，並將下半年的經濟放緩納入我們的估計中，導致全年的離職人數將上升較低的個位數。其中包括減少北美出發航班，北美出發航班約佔總數的 25%。

So to step back, while the broader environment is certainly uncertain, we are watching demand closely, and we're operating from a position of strength. The actions we're taking, combined with our robust backlog, position us well to maintain our full-year guidance.

因此，退一步來說，雖然大環境確實不確定，但我們正在密切關注需求，並且我們正從強勢地位出發進行營運。我們正在採取的行動，加上我們強大的積壓訂單，使我們能夠很好地維持全年指導。

Shifting to slide 6. We're focused on meeting the aftermarket and OE ramp to deliver for our customers. Demand continues to outpace supply, and we're utilizing FLIGHT DECK to tackle supply chain constraints head on.

轉到投影片 6。我們專注於滿足售後市場和 OE 需求，為客戶提供優質服務。需求持續超過供應，我們正在利用 FLIGHT DECK 來正面解決供應鏈限制問題。

In the first quarter, material input at our priority supplier sites was up 8% sequentially, which supported CES services revenue up 17% year over year. While defense units were a bright spot, up 5%, total engine units were down 6%, with LEAP down 13%. This was lighter than we expected from the slower start to material inputs in January and the lead times to complete new engines. We drove significant improvement in material input in February and March, giving us confidence that we will accelerate output in the second quarter.

第一季度，我們重點供應商站點的材料投入較上季成長8%，支援CES服務營收年增17%。雖然國防單位數量是一個亮點，增加了 5%，但發動機單位總數卻下降了 6%，其中 LEAP 下降了 13%。由於一月份材料投入開始較慢以及新引擎的交付週期較短，因此這一數字比我們預期的要低。我們在2月和3月推動了材料投入的顯著改善，這使我們有信心在第二季加速產量。

In partnership with our suppliers, we're leveraging FLIGHT DECK to deliver. Our priority suppliers continue to improve shipments against their committed targets, which increase both year over year and sequentially. In the first quarter, they delivered shipping more than 95% of their committed volumes.

我們與供應商合作，利用 FLIGHT DECK 來交付產品。我們的優先供應商繼續提高出貨量，以實現其承諾的目標，出貨量逐年增加，並且環比增長。第一季度，他們的出貨量超過了承諾出貨量的 95%。

Our new Technology & Operations organization has hit the ground running. In March, we hosted a supplier symposium to share our near and longer-term growth outlook across both services and OE. This helps our suppliers with required transparency and stability they need to make critical investments to support the ramp in a forum for discussing key challenges in doing so.

我們的新技術和營運組織已開始運作。三月份，我們舉辦了一次供應商研討會，分享我們在服務和 OE 領域的近期和長期成長前景。這有助於我們的供應商獲得所需的透明度和穩定性，他們需要在論壇上進行關鍵投資來支持產能提升，並討論這樣做所面臨的關鍵挑戰。

Importantly, we know these joint efforts with our suppliers work. Last quarter, we shared that a joint kaizen with one of those priority suppliers achieved a 50% increase in output in just one week. Now, at the end of the first quarter, the same team has delivered a 3x increase quarter over quarter.

重要的是，我們知道與供應商的這些共同努力是有效的。上個季度，我們與其中一家優先供應商進行了聯合改善，僅一周就實現了產量成長 50%。現在，第一季末，同一支團隊的業績環比成長了 3 倍。

Additionally, LEAP remains an important growth area, with the fleet expected to more than double by the end of the decade. We're continuing to expand capacity to support aftermarket demand. LEAP external shop visits grew over 60% in the first quarter, demonstrating the rapid growth in the third-party network.

此外，LEAP 仍然是一個重要的成長領域，預計到 2020 年其機隊數量將增加一倍以上。我們正在繼續擴大產能以支持售後市場的需求。LEAP第一季外部門店客流量成長超過60%，彰顯第三方網路的快速成長。

Also, all engine shipments to Airbus now incorporate the durability kit, including the upgraded HPT blade, which was approved back in December, and enables the LEAP-1A to achieve CFM56 levels of time on wing. We're also shipping those same blades to MRO shops to support upgrades of the existing fleet.

此外，目前所有運往空中巴士的引擎均配備了耐久性套件，包括升級的 HPT 葉片（該套件已於 12 月獲得批准），可使 LEAP-1A 達到 CFM56 的機翼壽命水平。我們也將同樣的葉片運送到 MRO 車間，以支援現有機組的升級。

The upgraded HPT blades incorporate a simpler design, requiring less capacity, improving process yields, and ultimately supporting higher output, critical additional benefits that will support achieving the 15% to 20% growth in LEAP deliveries we expect in 2025. We're already seeing improvement in our overall output through April and remain confident we'll accelerate in 2025 and longer term.

升級後的 HPT 葉片採用更簡單的設計，需要的容量更少，提高了製程產量，並最終支援更高的產量，這些關鍵的附加優勢將支援我們實現 2025 年預計的 LEAP 交付量 15% 至 20% 的成長。截至 4 月份，我們的整體產量已有所改善，並且我們堅信我們將在 2025 年及更長時間內加速成長。

Turning to slide 7. In the first quarter, we saw a continued demand for both our services and products. At CES, we secured multiple agreements for our customers' growing fleets. We secured engine commitments from ANA for both our narrowbody and widebody platforms. They selected LEAP and GEnx engines to power 13 A321neos, up to 22 737 MAXs, and 18 787-9 aircraft as part of their fleet upgrade.

翻到幻燈片 7。在第一季度，我們發現我們的服務和產品的需求持續成長。在 CES 上，我們為客戶不斷成長的車隊達成了多項協議。我們獲得了全日空為我們的窄體和寬體平台提供引擎的承諾。作為機隊升級的一部分，他們選擇了 LEAP 和 GEnx 發動機為 13 架 A321neo、多達 22 架 737 MAX 和 18 架 787-9 飛機提供動力。

Additionally, we received a commitment from Malaysia Aviation Group for 60 CFM LEAP engines, plus additional spares to power 30 Boeing 737 MAX aircraft. And in the widebody segment, Korean Air announced an agreement for up to 30 Boeing 787-10s and 20 777-9s with our GEnx and GE9X engines under wing.

此外，我們還獲得了馬來西亞航空集團的承諾，將提供 60 台 CFM LEAP 發動機以及為 30 架波音 737 MAX 飛機提供動力的額外備件。在寬體飛機領域，大韓航空宣布達成協議，將採購最多 30 架波音 787-10 和 20 架 777-9，並安裝我們的 GEnx 和 GE9X 引擎。

In DPT, defense budgets are increasing globally, and customers are selecting our leading programs. We received a contract from the US Air Force valued up to $5 billion. This supports foreign military sales for the F110 engines, which power the F-15 and the F-16 aircraft operated by allies around the world.

在 DPT 中，全球國防預算正在增加，客戶正在選擇我們領先的專案。我們獲得了一份來自美國空軍的價值高達50億美元的合約。這支持了 F110 發動機的對外軍售，該發動機為世界各地盟友作戰的 F-15 和 F-16 飛機提供動力。

At the same time, we're strengthening our leadership position with continued investments. Starting with the RISE program, we recently completed a second endurance test campaign on the high-pressure turbine blades, earlier in the development process than ever before. This demonstrated improved durability and fuel efficiency, key customer priorities for the future of flight. We also completed the initial ground runs for the T-901 engine on a US Army Black Hawk helicopter, a major milestone toward delivering a more powerful mission-ready aircraft and one that puts us on a path to a flight test.

同時，我們透過持續投資來鞏固我們的領導地位。從 RISE 計畫開始，我們最近完成了高壓渦輪葉片的第二次耐久性測試活動，比以往任何時候都更早進入開發過程。這表明耐用性和燃油效率均有所提高，這是未來飛行的關鍵客戶優先考慮。我們還完成了美國陸軍黑鷹直升機上 T-901 發動機的首次地面運行，這是交付更強大的任務就緒飛機的重要里程碑，也使我們走上了飛行測試的道路。

Finally, we successfully completed the detailed design review for the XA102 adaptive cycle engine, working toward production of a full-scale model. This is a critical milestone supporting the US Air Force's next-generation adaptive propulsion program.

最後，我們成功完成了XA102自適應循環引擎的詳細設計審查，並致力於生產全尺寸模型。這是支援美國空軍下一代自適應推進計畫的一個重要里程碑。

We were also pleased to see President Trump's award of the F-47 and the administration's commitment to advance this important program. Our progress on advanced engines position us well with the administration's efforts to maintain military air superiority. So overall, we're focused on executing our sizable backlog while investing in the technology building blocks that will define the future of flight.

我們也很高興看到川普總統授予F-47合約以及政府致力於推動這項重要計畫。我們在先進發動機方面的進步使我們在政府維持軍事空中優勢的努力中處於有利地位。因此，總的來說，我們專注於完成大量積壓工作，同時投資決定未來飛行的技術基礎。

Rahul, over to you.

拉胡爾，交給你了。

Thank you, Larry. Good morning, everyone.

謝謝你，拉里。大家早安。

We started out 2025 with a strong first quarter marked by significant top-line and EPS growth. Orders were up 12% and revenue was up 11%, both led by commercial services. Profit was $2.1 billion, up $600 million, or 38%, driven by services volume, favorable mix, and price. Margins expanded 460 basis points to 23.8%. EPS of $1.49 was up 60% from profit growth, a favorable tax rate, and a lower share count from buyback actions.

2025 年第一季我們表現強勁，營業收入和每股盈餘均顯著成長。訂單量成長 12%，營收成長 11%，這兩項成長均由商業服務帶動。利潤達到 21 億美元，成長 6 億美元，即 38%，這得益於服務量、有利的組合和價格。利潤率擴大 460 個基點至 23.8%。每股收益為 1.49 美元，由於利潤增長、稅率折扣以及回購行動導致的股票數量減少而上漲了 60%。

Free cash flow was $1.4 billion, down 14%, and in line with our expectations. Working capital was the source, primarily from contract assets. Inventory increased to prepare for higher output and to tackle ongoing material availability challenges. This was partially offset by payables.

自由現金流為 14 億美元，下降 14%，符合我們的預期。營運資金來源主要為合約資產。庫存增加是為了準備更高的產量並應對持續的材料供應挑戰。這被應付款項部分抵銷。

Given our operational and financial strength, we continue to expect to deploy over $8 billion of cash to shareholders in 2025 through dividends and buybacks. We remain well positioned to drive significant shareholder returns while continuing to invest in growth, innovation, and focused M&A.

鑑於我們的營運和財務實力，我們預計到 2025 年仍將透過股利和回購向股東部署超過 80 億美元的現金。我們仍處於有利地位，能夠為股東帶來豐厚回報，同時繼續投資於成長、創新和重點併購。

Looking closer at our businesses, starting with CES. In the quarter, orders were up 15%, with services up 31%, while equipment was down 13%, given a tough compare. Revenue was up 14%, led by services up 17%. Spare parts revenue was up more than 20% from higher volume and price. Internal shop visit revenue grew 11% from higher shop visit output, increased workscopes, and widebody mix.

從 CES 開始，仔細檢視我們的業務。本季度，訂單量增加了 15%，服務量增加了 31%，而設備量下降了 13%，這是一個艱難的比較。營收成長 14%，其中服務收入成長 17%。由於銷量和價格上漲，備件收入增長了 20% 以上。由於店內訪問產量增加、工作範圍擴大以及寬體飛機組合，內部店內訪問收入增加了 11%。

Equipment grew 9%, with favorable customer mix and price offsetting unit deliveries that were down 9%. While still elevated, the spare engine ratio stepped down sequentially, in line with expectations, and the LEAP life of program spare engine ratio remains in low-double digits.

設備成長了 9%，有利的客戶組合和價格抵消了單位交付量下降 9%。備用引擎比例雖然仍然較高，但按照預期連續下降，並且 LEAP 計劃備用引擎壽命比例仍保持在低兩位數。

Profit was $1.9 billion, up 35% from services volume, mix, and price. This more than offset inflation, increased R&D, and a year-over-year change in estimated profitability on long-term service agreements of approximately $100 million, primarily from the estimated impacts of tariffs. CES margins expanded 420 basis points to 27.5%, overall, a very strong start for CES, largely driven by services.

利潤達到 19 億美元，服務量、服務組合和價格上漲了 35%。這不僅抵消了通貨膨脹、研發增加以及長期服務協議預計獲利能力年比變化約 1 億美元（主要來自關稅的預期影響）的影響。CES 利潤率擴大 420 個基點至 27.5%，總體而言，這對 CES 來說是一個非常強勁的開端，主要得益於服務業。

Moving to DPT. Orders were flat year over year, with services up 14%, while equipment was down, given the significant growth in first quarter of last year. Defense demand remains robust, with a book-to-bill of 1.4x.

移至 DPT。訂單與去年同期持平，服務訂單成長 14%，而設備訂單則因去年第一季的大幅成長而下降。國防需求依然強勁，訂單出貨比為 1.4 倍。

Revenue grew 1%. Defense & Systems revenue was flat. Defense unit growth of 5% and price were offset by lower services revenue. Propulsion & Additive Technologies grew 1%. Services volume and price offset lower internal shipments from a planned lower start in equipment sales.

收入成長了1%。國防與系統收入持平。國防部門 5% 的成長和價格的成長被服務收入的下降所抵消。推進與增材技術成長了 1%。服務量和價格抵消了設備銷售計劃開局較低導致的內部出貨量下降。

Profit was up 16%, driven by customer mix, productivity, and price. This was partially offset by self-funding of next-generation investments and inflation. Margins improved 160 basis points to 12.7%. Stepping back, DPT delivered a better-than-expected first quarter.

受客戶結構、生產力和價格的推動，利潤增加了 16%。這部分被下一代投資的自籌資金和通貨膨脹所抵銷。利潤率提高 160 個基點，達到 12.7%。回顧一下，DPT 第一季的業績比預期好。

Shifting to Corporate. Cost, including eliminations, was about $70 million. This was down over 40%, or approximately $55 million, mostly driven by expenses down roughly $40 million.

轉向企業。包括消除費用在內的成本約為 7,000 萬美元。這一數字下降了 40% 以上，約 5,500 萬美元，主要原因是支出減少了約 4,000 萬美元。

Now, moving to our guidance on slide 11. First quarter exceeded expectations, given stronger spare parts sales and services mix, which should continue. We have a robust backlog, supporting our growth for several years. And we're taking actions to offset the impact from tariffs and to help us in navigating the uncertainty in the environment.

現在，轉到第 11 張投影片上的指示。由於備件銷售和服務組合更加強勁，第一季業績超出預期，並且這種勢頭有望持續下去。我們擁有大量積壓訂單，可以支持我們未來幾年的成長。我們正在採取行動來抵消關稅的影響，並幫助我們應對環境中的不確定性。

Operationally, we are performing better than we expected on the January earnings call. But given the macroeconomic backdrop, we are holding our guidance across the board. Therefore, we continue to expect low double-digit revenue growth, profit of $7.8 billion to $8.2 billion, EPS of $5.10 to $5.45, and free cash flow of $6.3 billion to $6.8 billion.

從營運角度來看，我們的表現比一月份收益電話會議的預期要好。但考慮到宏觀經濟背景，我們仍將維持目前的指導方針。因此，我們繼續預期營收將保持低兩位數成長，利潤將達到 78 億美元至 82 億美元，每股收益將達到 5.10 美元至 5.45 美元，自由現金流將達到 63 億美元至 68 億美元。

We are also maintaining our segment guidance. Unpacking the moving pieces, we have included the following in our guidance. Recognizing the dynamic background, we are preparing for tariffs that could persist through year-end, with 10% tariffs remaining in place, and then [retaliatory](corrected by company after the call) tariffs resuming after the 90-day pause.

我們也維持我們的分部指導。拆開移動部件，我們在指南中包括了以下內容。認識到動態背景，我們正在為可能持續到年底的關稅做準備，其中 10% 的關稅保持不變，然後在 90 天的暫停期後恢復 [報復性]（公司在通話後進行了更正）。

As Larry mentioned, we expect roughly $500 million of cost after our operational actions to minimize the tariff impact. From there, we expect to primarily mitigate this remaining $500 million through SG&A cost controls and price increases. We are maintaining our R&D spend for the year.

正如拉里所提到的，我們預計採取營運行動以盡量減少關稅影響後的成本約為 5 億美元。從那時起，我們預計主要透過銷售、一般和行政費用控制和價格上漲來減輕剩餘的 5 億美元負擔。我們今年的研發支出將維持不變。

Regarding the macro environment, given the ongoing uncertainty in the second half, we are adjusting some of our full-year expectations. We now expect low-single-digit full-year departure growth, down from mid-single-digit in January.

關於宏觀環境，鑑於下半年持續存在的不確定性，我們正在調整一些全年預期。我們現在預計全年離境人數成長率將為低個位數，低於 1 月的中個位數。

Given the tariffs in place [in China](added by company after the call), we've reduced spare parts and spare engine sales for the year to that region. This demand is not foregone, as the customers in China still have needs for services and spare engines, but they may be delayed. We are maintaining our full-year spare parts guidance for low double-digit growth, given the stronger start to the year, and nearly 90% of spare parts in backlog for second quarter. We expect minimal impact on internal shop visit revenue, which represents roughly 60% of our total services revenue, given our backlog, pent-up demand, and limited risk to shop visits pushing out. Overall, we continue to expect low double-digit to mid-teens services growth. We have not factored in a slowdown in airframer delivery schedules, further tariff escalation, or a global recession into our guidance. We remain confident in our ability to deliver another year of strong results.

鑑於[中國]現行的關稅（公司在電話會議後補充道），我們減少了今年對該地區的備件和備用發動機的銷售。這種需求並未被放棄，因為中國的客戶仍然需要服務和備用發動機，但可能會被推遲。鑑於今年開局強勁，且第二季備品積壓量接近 90%，我們維持全年備件低兩位數成長預期。考慮到我們的積壓訂單、被壓抑的需求以及有限的店訪延期風險，我們預計內部店訪收入將受到很小的影響，該收入約占我們總服務收入的 60%。整體而言，我們仍預期服務業成長率將維持在低兩位數至中十幾個百分點之間。我們的預測中沒有考慮飛機製造商交付計劃放緩、關稅進一步上調或全球經濟衰退等因素。我們仍然有信心，我們有能力在新的一年裡取得優異的表現。

With that, Larry, I'll turn it back to you.

有了這些，拉里，我就把它交還給你了。

Rahul, thank you.

拉胡爾，謝謝你。

We're encouraged by our strong start, which, combined with the actions we're taking, puts us well on our way to achieving our full-year guide. CES is on track for another year of significant growth, and we expect continued solid performance at DPT.

我們對我們的良好開端感到鼓舞，這與我們正在採取的行動相結合，使我們在實現全年目標的道路上走得很順利。CES 有望再創輝煌，實現另一個顯著成長，我們預計 DPT 將繼續保持穩健表現。

GE Aerospace has sustained competitive advantages. We have a diversified fleet of preferred platforms across the narrowbody, widebody, and defense sectors. At the core of everything we do is safety, quality, delivery, and cost, always in that order.

GE航空集團保持了持續的競爭優勢。我們擁有涵蓋窄體機、寬體機和國防部門的多樣化首選平台機隊。我們所做的一切的核心都是安全、品質、交付和成本，並且始終遵循這個順序。

Our services and technology offer industry-leading operational reliability, including greater efficiency, extended time on wing, and faster turnaround times. We serve the industry's largest fleet of 70,000 engines with unrivaled customer service and flight support. This keeps us close to our customers through decades, long life cycles, building meaningful relationships, and making us the partner of choice.

我們的服務和技術提供業界領先的營運可靠性，包括更高的效率、更長的飛行時間和更快的周轉時間。我們為業內最大的 70,000 台發動機機隊提供無與倫比的客戶服務和飛行支援。這使得我們在數十年、漫長的生命週期中與客戶保持密切聯繫，建立有意義的關係，並使我們成為客戶的首選合作夥伴。

Our talented engineering teams continue to develop breakthrough innovation to support our existing fleet and advance next-generation technologies. And FLIGHT DECK supports us in delivering results and lasting value for our customers and shareholders. These differentiators, combined with our growing backlog, will not only help us manage the near term, but enable us to deliver long-term value.

我們優秀的工程團隊不斷開發突破性創新，以支援我們現有的車隊並推動下一代技術。FLIGHT DECK 支持我們為客戶和股東創造成果和持久價值。這些差異化因素，加上我們不斷成長的積壓訂單，不僅可以幫助我們管理短期事務，還可以讓我們實現長期價值。

With that, Blaire, let's go to questions.

布萊爾，我們開始提問吧。

Before we open the line, I'd ask everyone in the queue to consider your fellow analysts and ask one question so we can get to as many people as possible. Liz, can you please open the line?

在我們開始通話之前，我要求排隊中的每個人都考慮一下你的同儕分析師，並提出一個問題，以便我們可以聯繫到盡可能多的人。莉茲，你能接通電話嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Doug Harned, Bernstein.

（操作員指示）Doug Harned，Bernstein。

Thank you. Good morning. Larry, you talked about tariffs at the outset, and tariffs in aviation really aren't good for anybody. And you said that you're advocating a return to that zero tariff approach. But I wonder if you can comment some on the interactions that you've had, or perhaps others in the industry have had with the administration, in order to advocate for that point of view for aviation. And perhaps you can say, are there any thoughts you have about how this might play out over time, scenarios that may be possible given the uncertainty right now?

謝謝。早安.拉里，你一開始就談到了關稅，而航空關稅實際上對任何人都沒有好處。您說過，您主張恢復零關稅政策。但我想知道您是否可以就您或業內其他人與政府的互動發表一些評論，以便在航空領域倡導這一觀點。或許您可以說，您是否想過這種情況會隨著時間的推移而如何發展，考慮到目前的不確定性，可能會出現哪些情況？

Well, Doug, I think it's easier to speak to the first part of that than the second part. We have spoken to a number of people -- senior people within the administration, including the president. We have been, I think, full-throated in our support of the administration's efforts to support American competitiveness and revitalize American manufacturing. We're well aligned in that regard.

好吧，道格，我認為談論第一部分比談論第二部分更容易。我們與許多人進行了交談——包括總統在內的政府高層人士。我認為，我們全力支持政府為提高美國競爭力和振興美國製造業所做的努力。在這方面我們的觀點一致。

But it's easy to overlook the $75 billion trade surplus the sector enjoys, largely on the back of this tariff-free regime that we've had since 1979. So all we have suggested, as the administration works through a myriad of issues, is that they consider the position of strength that the country enjoys as a result of this tariff-free regime and to consider reestablishing the same.

但人們很容易忽視該行業享有的 750 億美元貿易順差，這主要歸功於我們自 1979 年以來實施的免關稅制度。因此，我們建議，在政府處理大量問題的同時，他們應該考慮該國因這種免關稅制度而享有的強勢地位，並考慮重新建立這種地位。

There are a whole host of potential scenarios here, Doug, that we could take on operationally. I won't take your time to go through them. There is uncertainty. None of us, I think, know for sure how this plays out. But as Rahul walked through a moment ago, I think what we've basically assumed here is that what we're dealing with is what we'll see through the rest of the year.

道格，這裡存在著大量我們可以在操作上應對的潛在情況。我不會浪費你的時間去研究它們。存在不確定性。我想，我們都不知道事情會如何發展。但正如拉胡爾剛才走過的那樣，我想我們基本上已經假設，我們正在處理的事情就是我們在今年剩餘時間將看到的事情。

We've knocked down a good bit of the gross effects through the actions like duty drawbacks and foreign trade zones, but we're still staring at the better part of $0.5 billion of headwind in 2025. And in turn, that's where the cost control actions and the price actions that we've touched on here give us additional offset opportunities. But as we work those operationally, rest assured, we will continue to advocate in the best ways possible on behalf of the industry.

我們已經透過退稅和建立對外貿易區等措施，減少了相當一部分整體影響，但我們仍將面臨 2025 年約 5 億美元的逆風。反過來，我們在這裡提到的成本控制措施和價格措施也為我們提供了額外的抵銷機會。但當我們在實際操作中進行這些工作時，請放心，我們將繼續以最好的方式代表業界進行倡議。

Sheila Kahyaoglu, Jefferies.

傑富瑞的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

Good morning, Larry and Rahul. Thank you. Maybe just sticking on the tariff topic, if that's okay, very good start to both CES and DPT. Total profit beat of $250 million, even baking in $100 million of impact from tariffs in Q1, and you talked about a $500 million net impact. How do we think about the margin cadence in Q2 and the second half as we think about those tariffs coming in?

早上好，拉里和拉胡爾。謝謝。如果可以的話，也許只是堅持關稅話題，這對 CES 和 DPT 來說都是非常好的開始。總利潤超過 2.5 億美元，即使考慮到第一季關稅造成的 1 億美元影響，您所說的淨影響也是 5 億美元。當我們考慮即將實施的關稅時，我們如何看待第二季和下半年的利潤節奏？

Right. No, Sheila. So let me start and Larry can jump in here.

正確的。不，希拉。那麼就讓我開始吧，拉里可以加入。

We've had a good start here. First quarter came in better than what we expected. And as we think about the year, and we mentioned this in January, we did expect a strong start to the year. We were aiming for a more linear year than we had last year. And given the OE ramp was back end loaded, we have 9X shipments in the back half of the year, and then lower spare engine ratio and including step-up in corporate expenses, so we had expected that we will have a stronger first half. And we've seen that in the first quarter.

我們在這裡已經有了一個好的開始。第一季的表現優於我們的預期。當我們回顧這一年時，我們在一月份就提到這一點，我們確實期待這一年有一個強勁的開端。我們的目標是今年的業績比去年更加平穩。鑑於 OE 坡道是後端加載的，我們在下半年的出貨量是 9 倍，然後備用引擎比例降低，並包括公司費用的增加，因此我們預計上半年的表現會更強勁。我們在第一季就看到了這一點。

And as we think about the second quarter, to get to your question, we do expect that momentum to continue into the second quarter. And what we are thinking for second quarter right now, given where we are in April, is that the GE Aerospace revenue growth to be better than what we delivered in first quarter and the profit dollars for the second quarter to be flat to sequentially up from first quarter, and decently up on a year-over-year basis.

當我們考慮第二季時，請回答您的問題，我們確實預計這種勢頭將持續到第二季​​。考慮到四月份的情況，我們現在對第二季度的預期是，通用電氣航空航天集團的收入增長將優於第一季度，第二季度的利潤將與第一季持平或環比上升，與去年同期相比將有大幅增長。

And this will be primarily driven by services, and we expect similar revenue growth in services as we did in the first quarter. As I said on the call, more than 90% of the spare parts are in the backlog, which is a similar position that we were in in January for first quarter. But this spare parts growth in the second quarter will be partially offset by higher OE growth.

這將主要由服務業推動，我們預計服務業的營收成長將與第一季類似。正如我在電話中所說，超過 90% 的備件都處於積壓狀態，這與我們第一季 1 月的情況類似。但第二季備件需求的成長將被原廠設備需求的增加所部分抵銷。

Now, as we think about the second half of the year, a lot more uncertainty, given the volatility around the macro trends that we've spoken to. But we've embedded a certain amount of conservatism in our guide around departures that we spoke about and issues arising from the tariffs in China. So given that, we've reduced our expectations for spare engines and spare parts deliveries to China.

現在，當我們考慮下半年時，考慮到我們談到的宏觀趨勢的波動，不確定性會大大增加。但我們在指南中對所討論的離境和中國關稅引發的問題採取了一定程度的保守態度。因此，我們降低了對中國備用引擎和備件交付的期望。

Now, some of them will get diverted to other customers, but there will probably still be an impact. And we've also factored in the potential slowdown in departures in North America. But overall, we are holding the low double-digit spare parts growth for the year just given the start that we've had.

現在，其中一些將轉移到其他客戶，但可能仍然會產生影響。我們也考慮到了北美出發人數可能放緩的情況。但總體而言，考慮到我們今年的開局，我們今年的備件銷售量仍保持著較低的兩位數成長。

So if you put all that together, we should still see year-over-year profit growth in the second half. Should still be a very, very good year for us. And overall, as we sit here today, Sheila, we feel better about the year, even with the tariffs, even with the macroeconomic uncertainty that we did back in January. And knowing that where we are in the world right now, we'll be back together in June at the Paris Air Show, and we'll give you an update there.

因此，如果把所有這些因素綜合起來，我們仍然應該看到下半年利潤同比增長。對我們來說這應該仍然是非常非常好的一年。總的來說，希拉，今天我們坐在這裡，儘管有關稅，儘管有 1 月的宏觀經濟不確定性，我們對今年的感覺還是比較好的。在了解我們目前所處的世界後，我們將在 6 月在巴黎航展上再次相聚，屆時我們將向大家通報最新情況。

David Strauss, Barclays.

巴克萊銀行的大衛‧施特勞斯。

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. So just wanted to dig in a little bit on that second half of the year assumption on departures. It looks like you're assuming basically no departure growth in the second half of the year. Is that right? And what is specifically in a flat departure scenario are you assuming for spares?

謝謝。大家早安。因此，我只是想稍微深入探討下半年離職人數的假設。看起來您假設下半年離境人數基本上不會成長。是嗎？在平穩出發的情況下，您對備件的具體假設是什麼？

And a follow-up there on shop visits. I know you talk about you've got a lot of backlog on shop visits. But how long would you think that departures can stay relatively flattish before you start to see an impact in terms of shop visits just from retirements picking up and so on? Thanks.

並跟進商店訪問。我知道您說過，您在商店拜訪方面有很多積壓的工作。但是，您認為離職率能保持相對穩定多久，才會開始看到退休人數增加等對店鋪訪問量產生影響？謝謝。

David, you touched on a number of the variables there. Again, the mid-single-digit outlook for departures that we saw, we talked about back in January, held up quite well in the first. And it looks like just looking at this morning's data, that continues to be the case.

大衛，你提到了那裡的許多變數。再次，我們在一月份談到的中等個位數離職率前景在第一季保持得相當好。從今天早上的數據來看，情況似乎仍然如此。

We often, I think, maybe over index on the dynamics in the US market. We know there's some cross-border traffic softening, Canada to the US, even Europe to the US. But broadly, when you look around the world, departures are holding up pretty well. Rahul used the word conservatism earlier. I think we're just taking a conservative view with respect to the second half. US departures could soften. We may see some adjustments elsewhere. We'll leave the detailed planning to the airlines.

我認為，我們可能經常高估美國市場的動態。我們知道，從加拿大到美國，甚至從歐洲到美國的跨境交通都有所減弱。但從整體來看，環顧世界各地，出境人數保持得相當不錯。拉胡爾早些時候使用了保守主義這個詞。我認為我們只是對下半年持保守看法。美國離境人數可能會減少。我們可能會在其他地方看到一些調整。我們將把詳細規劃留給航空公司。

But again, I think we know that it will take some time for that to impact us, not that we will be immune for the calendar year. But when you look at past downturns, it has taken two, three, four quarters, sometimes longer, for that departure slowdown to really impact our activities. And I think that's why we've highlighted the strength of the spare parts order book that we have in hand. Again, 90% of the second quarter already in place. And with the engines that are off wing, either in our shops today waiting to come into shop or waiting to be delivered to us, that would take us well into the fall.

但我再次強調，我們知道這將需要一段時間才會對我們產生影響，但這並不意味著我們在這一年內不會受到影響。但回顧過去的經濟衰退，我們會發現通常需要兩到三個季度、四個季度，甚至更長的時間，離境人數的減少才會真正影響我們的活動。我認為這就是我們強調手頭備件訂單實力的原因。再次，第二季的 90% 已經到位。而那些已離機翼的發動機，無論是今天在我們的車間等待進廠還是等待交付給我們，都可以讓我們順利度過秋季。

So we don't like the fact that we've got such delinquencies in place. We want to serve our customers better. But it does, I think, support the underlying strength of the backlog and the delinquency as we look at our opportunities to execute and deliver through the rest of this calendar year. But again, there's uncertainty here. We're taking what we think is a cautious view, and we'll be watching it very, very closely.

所以我們不喜歡出現這樣的違約現象。我們希望更好地服務我們的客戶。但我認為，當我們審視在今年剩餘時間內執行和交付的機會時，它確實支持了積壓和拖欠的潛在實力。但同樣，這裡也存在著不確定性。我們採取謹慎的態度，並將密切關注此事。

Gautam Khanna, TD Cowen.

高塔姆·卡納（Gautam Khanna），TD Cowen。

Yeah. Good morning, guys. I was wondering if you could elaborate on your pricing strategy and how it might differ from normal years. Are you going to wait until kind of mid-year to enact spare price increases? What's different as you approach pricing offsets to tariffs this year?

是的。大家早安。我想知道您是否可以詳細說明您的定價策略以及它與正常年份有何不同。您是否要等到年中才提高備品價格？今年你們在定價抵銷關稅方面有何不同？

So Gautam, we are doing this -- there are two pieces to this. We will do our typical kind of catalog price increases that we do late in the summer. Again, our thinking around that has not changed. We are still aiming for that mid to high single-digit price increases on our spare parts later in summer, which is consistent with where we were in January. So that expectation has not changed.

所以 Gautam，我們正在做這件事——這件事有兩個部分。我們將在夏末進行典型的目錄價格上調。再次強調，我們對此的想法並沒有改變。我們仍計劃在夏季晚些時候將備件價格提高到中高個位數，這與一月份的水平一致。所以這個期望並沒有改變。

Now, that typically translates into kind of mid-single-digit at the overall services level for us, after sharing with the revenue share partners and everything else. The pricing benefit on the remaining service contract is lower than what we see on the spare parts, as you know. But overall, I think that expectation has not changed.

現在，在與收入分成合作夥伴和其他所有人分享收入後，這通常意味著我們的整體服務水準將達到中等個位數。如您所知，剩餘服務合約的定價優勢低於備件的定價優勢。但總體而言，我認為這種期望並沒有改變。

I think what we alluded to on the tariffs was a temporary surcharge for recovering the cost that we are feeling right now. Now, we are trying to offset that with all the things that we spoke about, that Larry spoke about even a minute ago to Doug's question. So we are trying to manage through that.

我認為我們在關稅中提到的是一種臨時附加費，用於收回我們目前感受到的成本。現在，我們正試圖用我們談論過的所有事情來抵消這一點，拉里一分鐘前就回答過道格的問題。因此我們正在努力解決這個問題。

And then we are going to take some SG&A cost control actions. And whatever is left, we will share that in some way, shape, or form to a tariff surcharge. And hopefully, it is not a permanent thing and we can take those away as soon as the tariffs end. So that is our thinking right now.

然後我們將採取一些銷售、一般和行政費用控制措施。剩下的部分，我們將以某種方式、形式或關稅附加費來分享。希望這不是永久性的，我們可以在關稅結束後立即取消這些措施。這就是我們現在的想法。

Ken Herbert, RBC Capital Markets.

加拿大皇家銀行資本市場 (RBC Capital Markets) 的 Ken Herbert。

Yeah. Hi. Good morning, everybody. Hey, Larry or Rahul, I just wanted to see, in the first quarter, really strong spare parts purchasing. Can you comment if you expected or saw any pre-buys there, specifically in China or elsewhere perhaps, maybe ahead of the tariffs or other factors? And as part of that over 20% growth, can you give any granularity on maybe widebody versus narrowbody dynamics, or specifically LEAP versus CFM56?

是的。你好。大家早安。嘿，拉里或拉胡爾，我只是想看看第一季備件採購情況是否真的強勁。您能否評論一下，您是否預期或看到那裡有任何預購，特別是在中國或其他地方，也許是在關稅或其他因素之前？作為超過 20% 成長的一部分，您能否詳細說明寬體飛機與窄體飛機的動態對比，或者俱體來說 LEAP 與 CFM56 的對比？

So Ken, no pre-buys. I mean, typically, we don't see that in January. I think we kind of knew that. I think as we go back to the first-quarter earnings call, we said 90% was in the backlog. And we are sitting in a similar situation here in the second quarter, as we said a couple of times here. So no pre-buys.

所以 Ken，不要預購。我的意思是，通常我們不會在一月份看到這種情況。我想我們大概知道這一點。我認為，當我們回顧第一季的收益電話會議時，我們說過 90％ 都處於積壓狀態。正如我們多次提到的，第二季我們也面臨類似的情況。所以沒有預購。

I think the departures were up 4%. They are hanging in there. We are up 4% in the first quarter. They are hanging in at that level even in the second quarter through April and through the forward schedules that we are seeing in May. So clearly, that trend is continuing. So no pre-buys.

我認為離職人數增加了4%。他們還在堅持。我們第一季成長了4%。即使在第二季至四月以及我們在五月看到的遠期計畫中，它們仍保持著這一水平。顯然，這種趨勢仍在持續。所以沒有預購。

Now, in terms of the widebody, narrowbody, and on LEAP versus CFM56, obviously, LEAP is growing faster. We expected more than 30% shop visit growth on LEAP. And within that 30% shop visit growth, the external channel, we expect the external channel this year to be about 15% of our total shop visit revenue versus kind of 10% last year. So within that, you can see the external channel beginning to pick up, and that is driving the LEAP spare parts revenue growth.

現在，就寬體、窄體以及 LEAP 與 CFM56 而言，顯然 LEAP 的成長速度更快。我們預計 LEAP 的店鋪訪問量成長率將超過 30%。在 30% 的店鋪訪問量成長中，我們預計外部通路今年將占我們店鋪訪客總收入的 15% 左右，而去年這一比例為 10%。因此，您可以看到外部管道開始回暖，這推動了 LEAP 備件收入的成長。

For CFM56, we continue to expect kind of mid-single-digit shop visit growth, which will drive the CFM56 revenue. So LEAP is clearly going faster here than CFM56 on a percentage basis. But narrowbody, widebody, I think that obviously, LEAP is driving a little bit higher percentage growth. But we are seeing good growth even on the widebody side, especially as GE90 and GEnx get into heavier workscopes.

對於 CFM56，我們繼續預期店鋪訪問量將出現中等個位數成長，這將推動 CFM56 的營收。因此，從百分比來看，LEAP 的速度明顯比 CFM56 更快。但無論是窄體機還是寬體機，我認為 LEAP 顯然正在推動略高的百分比成長。但即使在寬體飛機方面，我們也看到了良好的成長，特別是當 GE90 和 GEnx 進入更重的工作範圍時。

Myles Walton, Wolfe Research.

邁爾斯·沃爾頓，沃爾夫研究公司。

Thanks. Good morning. Rahul, for you, the equipment gross margins in the quarter, it's another quarter of positive gross margins, I think 12%, even better than the 8% you had last quarter despite a lower spare engine ratio. I'm just curious, is there anything structural going on with respect to the razor blade model and making money maybe on new equipment? Or is there something else under the surface you could give some color to?

謝謝。早安.拉胡爾，對您來說，本季的設備毛利率是另一個正值，我認為是 12%，甚至比上一季的 8% 還要好，儘管備用引擎比例較低。我只是好奇，剃須刀片模型是否存在結構性變化，並且可能透過新設備賺錢？或者表面之下還有其他東西你可以賦予其一些顏色嗎？

Yeah. So Myles, a couple of things there. One, the number that you have is obviously the total GE Aerospace level versus CES, just keep that at the back of your mind. And as you saw, defense, we did say higher revenue growth. I mean, the units were up 5% in defense. So that helps. The defense business does contribute to that margin profile because those units are profitable.

是的。邁爾斯，這裡有幾件事。首先，您得到的數字顯然是 GE 航空航太集團與 CES 集團的總水平之比，請記住這一點。正如您所看到的，在國防方面，我們確實提到了更高的收入成長。我的意思是，部隊的防禦力上升了 5%。這很有幫助。國防業務確實對利潤率有所貢獻，因為這些部門是獲利的。

Now, within CES, our OE volume was a little bit lower. And as you saw, the spare engine ratio did come down sequentially, but was still elevated. And that will keep coming down as the year progresses, but in line with what we had projected at the beginning of the year. So nothing abnormal there.

現在，在 CES 上，我們的 OE 銷售量略低一些。正如您所看到的，備用引擎比例確實依次下降，但仍然較高。隨著時間的推移，這一數字將繼續下降，但與我們年初的預測一致。所以沒有什麼異常。

And really no change, broadly speaking to the razor blade model. Now, widebodies are obviously -- those platforms are now profitable for the OE business. So that is helping here as well.

從廣義上講，剃須刀片型號確實沒有變化。現在，寬體飛機顯然——這些平台現在對 OE 業務來說是有利可圖的。所以這也有幫助。

Noah Poponak, Goldman Sachs.

高盛的諾亞·波波納克。

Hey. Good morning, everyone. A few questions on cash flow and its deployment. To what extent was the quarter ahead of the free cash plan? And if it was, how much of that is pure outperformance versus quarterly timing? And then I wanted to ask, on the duty drawback, how long does it take to recover? And what does that mean for cash flow? And then in terms of its deployment, how does the current environment change your thinking in terms of being more aggressive or more conservative on capital deployment?

嘿。大家早安。關於現金流及其部署的幾個問題。本季在多大程度上領先免費現金計畫？如果是的話，其中有多少是純粹的超額表現，而不是季度時機？然後我想問一下，退稅的話要多久才能恢復？這對現金流意味著什麼？那麼就其部署而言，當前的環境如何改變您在資本部署方面的想法，使您採取更積極還是更保守的策略？

Well, maybe we could take those in reverse order, Noah. I think, as Rahul said in our prepared remarks, we continue to think that in '25, we'll have more than $8 billion of total returns between the dividend and the buyback at $7 billion.

好吧，也許我們可以按相反的順序來做，諾亞。我認為，正如拉胡爾在我們準備好的演講中所說的那樣，我們仍然認為在 25 年，我們的股息和回購之間的總回報將超過 80 億美元，即 70 億美元。

As you would appreciate, given the comments this morning and the conviction we have about the outlook, we'll be thoughtful, we'll be opportunistic. We do have, I think it's close to $3 billion of remaining authorization in the buyback once that $7 billion that we planned for this year has been utilized. So we've got some latitude, some flexibility in that regard.

正如您所理解的，鑑於今天早上的評論以及我們對前景的信念，我們會深思熟慮，我們會抓住機會。我認為，一旦我們今年計劃的 70 億美元被使用，我們剩餘的回購授權金額就接近 30 億美元。因此，在這方面我們有一定的自由度和靈活性。

With respect to the duty drawback, normal course, we would see that cycle somewhere four or five months. We'll see how things play out in this environment, but that would be a good planning assumption.

至於退稅，正常情況下，我們會看到這個週期大約是四到五個月。我們將觀察在這種環境下事情如何發展，但這將是一個很好的規劃假設。

And Noah, on the first-quarter cash, we basically came in in-line. I think we expected kind of at the levels we were at, working cap was positive in the quarter. You saw the inventory build that we had. It was down a little bit year over year, just given the timing of cash tax payments and some of the employee liabilities that we had. But again, nothing unusual or unexpected. And as we sit here for the second quarter, we do expect to have a strong second quarter on cash. It should be sequentially up from first quarter, and we expect more than 100% conversion for the second quarter.

諾亞，就第一季的現金而言，我們基本上達到了預期水準。我認為，以我們預期的水平，本季的工作上限是正數。您看到了我們建立的庫存。考慮到現金納稅的時間和我們的一些員工負債，這一數字比去年同期略有下降。但同樣，沒有什麼不尋常或意外的。當我們進入第二季度時，我們確實預計第二季度的現金流將強勁。它應該比第一季有所上升，我們預計第二季的轉換率將超過 100%。

Scott Deuschle, Deutsche Bank.

史考特‧德施勒，德意志銀行。

Hey. Good morning. Rahul, in your last Investor Day deck, you had this chart that showed price increases on both LEAP OE and LTSA contracts, and I think it compared pricing from prior to 2018 to pricing in 2022 and 2023 and the step-up was something to the tune of 100%, I think. I guess, can you characterize how much of that 100% increase in price you've seen at this point in the income statement versus how much is still just sitting in the backlog and remaining to be seen? Thank you.

嘿。早安.拉胡爾，在您上次的投資者日演示文稿中，您有一張圖表，顯示了 LEAP OE 和 LTSA 合約的價格上漲，我認為它將 2018 年之前的價格與 2022 年和 2023 年的價格進行了比較，我認為漲幅達到了 100%。我想，您能否描述一下在損益表中此時您看到的價格上漲了 100%，而有多少仍積壓著，還有待觀察？謝謝。

No, Scott, you're right. So let me take that in two pieces. One, I think you're right. The shop visit prices are going up, and that's just basically the end of launch period pricing. Obviously, as we were in the 2019 to 2021 timeframe, it was a very different time period. We were in that initial stages of launch. As we've come out of that, the LEAP shop visit pricing has gone up since then.

不，斯科特，你是對的。所以讓我把它分成兩部分來討論。第一，我認為你是對的。商店訪問價格正在上漲，基本上就是發布期定價的結束。顯然，正如我們處於 2019 年至 2021 年的時間範圍內一樣，這是一個非常不同的時期。我們正處於發布的初始階段。隨著我們走出這一困境，LEAP 商店訪問價格從那時起已經上漲。

But as we think about that price increase that we put in place, that takes a few years for it to show up in our P&L. As you mentioned, just given the timing of contract and obviously with the delay in aircraft deliveries, that cycle is a little bit elongated. So while we are implementing price increases for the shop visits and the portfolio accretion is at the higher price, that has not really showed up in our P&L just yet. So that will take another couple of years before it starts showing up. And those contracts that we have signed recently, they're going to affect.

但考慮到我們實施的價格上漲，它需要幾年的時間才能體現在我們的損益表中。正如您所提到的，考慮到合約的時間以及飛機交付的明顯延遲，這個週期會稍微延長一些。因此，雖然我們正在提高店內訪問的價格，並且投資組合的增值價格也更高，但這還沒有真正體現在我們的損益表中。所以這還需要幾年時間才會開始出現。我們最近簽署的那些合約將會產生影響。

Seth Seifman, JPMorgan.

摩根大通的賽斯‧塞夫曼。

Thanks very much. Good morning. I wanted to follow up a question on the drawbacks, I guess. How do you think about those working through the supply chain? Do suppliers take care of all of that themselves? Does any of it go through you? Do you anticipate, given that some of them might not be as well capitalized, some need to support them? Or perhaps on the flip side, given the amount of inventory that you have, that there is maybe an opportunity to draw a little bit less right now? And basically, how you're thinking about managing the supply chain in light of tariffs.

非常感謝。早安.我想繼續追問有關缺點的問題。您如何看待那些透過供應鏈工作的人？供應商自己處理所有這些事情嗎？這一切是否都經過你的同意？您是否預計，鑑於其中一些機構可能資本不足，某些機構需要支持它們？或者另一方面，考慮到您擁有的庫存量，現在可能有機會減少一點庫存？基本上，您如何考慮根據關稅來管理供應鏈。

Well, Seth, I would say big picture, there's a tremendous amount of work going on with the new Tech & Ops organization to strengthen our overall working relationship with the supply base, large and small. I appreciate your comment about our current inventory levels.

好吧，塞思，我想說，從總體上看，新技術與營運組織正在進行大量工作，以加強我們與大大小小的供應基地的整體工作關係。感謝您對我們目前庫存水準的評論。

I don't think we're looking to make an adjustment here, given some of the uncertainty, because we know with the backlog that we are challenged to deliver both OE and aftermarket for the rest of this decade. We're going to need that inventory, and we want to strengthen the supply base. And we're going to be looking to find ways in which we can do that amid this uncertainty.

考慮到一些不確定性，我認為我們不會在這裡做出調整，因為我們知道，由於積壓訂單，我們面臨著在本世紀剩餘時間內同時提供 OE 和售後市場的挑戰。我們需要這些庫存，並且我們希望加強供應基礎。我們將在這種不確定性中尋找能夠做到這一點的方法。

Clearly, for the suppliers with whom we've got firm-fix contracts, that additional burden will be borne by them. We'll work through, where appropriate, adjustments in our overall arrangements with them. Clearly, we've got some bigger suppliers. We've got our partnership with Safran as well, where it's a different dynamic. So there are a lot of moving pieces here, and that's probably why we wanted to take the step that we did this morning to include a good bit of that, as best we know it today, into the forward guide.

顯然，對於與我們有固定合約的供應商來說，這筆額外的負擔將由他們承擔。我們將與他們一起，酌情調整我們的整體安排。顯然，我們有一些更大的供應商。我們還與賽峰集團建立了合作夥伴關係，這是一種不同的動態。所以這裡有很多活動的部分，這可能是為什麼我們想要採取今天早上的步驟，將其中的大部分內容（我們今天所知道的）納入前瞻性指南中。

Again, to Doug's earlier question, we'll be advocating for a position which we believe to be very much aligned with the President's America First trade agenda. But to the extent that things don't change, to the extent that the reciprocal tariffs kick in in the back half, we want to make sure we're ready, hand-in-hand with our suppliers, large and small, in addition to taking the cost and price actions that we referenced. But it's a fluid situation. I think that's part of what I suspect we'll be talking about through the course of the spring and summer here, not the least of which is at Paris, as we work our way through this, along with everybody else.

再次回答道格先前的問題，我們將倡導一種我們認為與總統的「美國優先」貿易議程非常一致的立場。但如果情況沒有改變，如果互惠關稅在下半年開始生效，我們希望確保我們已經做好準備，與我們的大小供應商攜手並進，除了採取我們提到的成本和價格行動之外。但情況很不穩定。我認為這是我們在春季和夏季會討論的部分內容，尤其是在巴黎，我們會和其他人一起努力解決這個問題。

So just to add maybe two points to what Larry said. One, we've learned a lot here over the last month or so since we started working the offsetting actions and understanding what programs are there that we can utilize to offset the gross impact. We are sharing that with our supply base and helping them understand what we know today. And I'm sure we'll learn from them as well as we compare notes. So that's one.

因此，我只想對拉里所說的內容補充兩點。首先，自從我們開始採取抵消行動並了解可以利用哪些計劃來抵消整體影響以來，我們在過去一個月左右的時間裡學到了很多東西。我們正在與我們的供應基地分享這一點，並幫助他們了解我們今天所知道的知識。我相信我們不僅能從他們身上學到東西，還能互相交流。這就是其中之一。

And the second, to your point about the duty drawbacks, they can claim the duty drawbacks for everything that we export. But obviously, we will provide them the documentation and the support they need to avail of that program.

第二，關於您提到的退稅問題，他們可以對我們出口的所有產品申請退稅。但顯然，我們將為他們提供利用該計劃所需的文件和支援。

Jason Gursky, Citi.

花旗銀行的傑森古爾斯基。

Hey. Good morning, everybody. I just wanted to ask a bigger picture question on the defense side of things. We've seen kind of a flurry of executive orders come out of the White House. And most recently, we got one related to the potential to rewrite federal acquisition regulation.

嘿。大家早安。我只是想問一個關於防禦方面的更大的問題。我們看到白宮發布了一系列行政命令。最近，我們收到了一條與重寫聯邦採購法規的可能性相關的訊息。

So I just wanted to get a sense from you all on what impact that might have on the industrial base. The administration seems to be pitching this as, quote, unquote, kind of cutting red tape and speeding up the acquisition process. But I'm wondering if that's always a good thing or are there going to be some unintended consequences that we should be on the lookout for as we look at this kind of rewrite.

所以我只是想從大家那裡了解這可能會對工業基礎產生什麼影響。政府似乎將此描述為「減少繁文縟節並加快收購進程」。但我想知道這是否總是一件好事，或者是否會產生一些意想不到的後果，我們在考慮這種重寫時應該注意這些後果。

Yeah. So Jason, I don't know if we know exactly what's on your mind, but the couple that I'm aware of or we are aware of here, and we could take it offline if that doesn't get to your question, which is I think there are two pieces.

是的。所以傑森，我不知道我們是否確切地知道你在想什麼，但據我所知或我們所知，如果這不能回答你的問題，我們可以將其離線，我認為有兩個部分。

One is the FMS reform to support and deliver more efficiently and effectively our export to our allies. And we at GE Aerospace are fortunate to be in a position where we have several highly capable programs that have a lot of international demand, whether it's Black Hawks, Apaches, F-16s, and soon to be exported the F-15EX. So all these improvements allow us to get our products in the hands of our allies, and that's a really welcome improvement. So we appreciate everything that's done, and that will help support our growth, but also that of the broader industry.

一是對外貿易體制改革，以更有效率、更有效地支持並向盟友提供出口。GE 航空航太公司非常幸運，我們擁有多個性能強大的項目，這些項目在國際上有著很大的需求，包括黑鷹直升機、阿帕奇直升機、F-16 戰機，以及即將出口的 F-15EX。因此，所有這些改進使我們能夠將我們的產品送到我們的盟友手中，這是一個真正受歡迎的改進。因此，我們感謝所做的一切，這不僅有助於支持我們的成長，也有助於支持整個產業的成長。

And then, the other improvements and requirements and acquisition processes to define the requirements, so that elimination of any bureaucratic issues there also supports us. So and then, a few other things that are about loss programs and all that. Now, again, we don't have a ton of that in our portfolio, so that does not directly impact us. But again, I think holding the industry accountable for its performance is not a bad thing.

然後，其他改進和要求以及收購流程來定義要求，以便消除任何官僚問題也為我們提供支援。那麼，還有一些其他與損失計畫等有關的事情。現在，我們的投資組合中並沒有大量的此類資產，因此這不會對我們產生直接影響。但我再次認為，讓產業對其表現負責並不是一件壞事。

Ron Epstein, Bank of America.

美國銀行的羅恩愛潑斯坦。

Hey. Good morning, guys. Maybe a little different angle on the tariff question. How are you all thinking about rare earths and some of the rare metals that you need either directly in what you do or what your suppliers need, given some of the changing rules in China? I mean, do you have it inventory or do you have alternative ways to source it? How are you thinking about that?

嘿。大家早安。關稅問題上的角度可能有點不同。鑑於中國的一些規則發生變化，你們如何看待稀土和一些稀有金屬？無論是你們的業務中直接需要的還是你們的供應商需要的？我的意思是，您有庫存嗎？或者您有其他方法來採購它嗎？您對此有何看法？

As you would imagine, we've been thinking about that a lot. I'm sure everybody else in the space has. Between alternate sources and inventory positions, both our own and with our supplier partners, we don't currently see any real issues here. There's some things that we'll continue to work through. We'll see how this is resolved from a trade negotiation perspective. But that's not high on our worry list at the moment.

正如您所想像的，我們對此進行了大量的思考。我確信這個領域的其他人也都這麼做過。在我們自己的以及與我們的供應商合作夥伴的替代來源和庫存位置之間，我們目前沒有發現任何實際問題。有些事情我們會繼續努力解決。我們將從貿易談判的角度來看看這個問題如何解決。但目前這並不是我們最擔心的問題。

Scott Mikus, Melius Research.

米庫斯（Scott Mikus），Melius Research。

Morning. Hey, Larry. I just wanted to ask a quick question on the pricing dynamic. So pricing in the aftermarket has been very healthy the past several years, but now airlines are seeing softening demand for travel. The departures at least seem to be holding up for now. So I'm just wondering, how are you thinking about balancing the price increases to offset tariffs and inflation while avoiding demand destruction so engines aren't seeing premature retirements?

早晨。嘿，拉里。我只是想問一個關於定價動態的簡單問題。過去幾年，售後市場的定價一直非常健康，但現在航空公司的旅遊需求正在減弱。至少目前看來，這些離職潮仍在持續。所以我只是想知道，您如何考慮平衡價格上漲以抵消關稅和通貨膨脹，同時避免需求破壞，從而避免引擎過早退役？

Scott, there's clearly a balancing act here. I think what we've always tried to do is really adhere to a handful of principles with respect to making sure we share in the value that we create, are compensated for the risks that we take on, and obviously deliver adequate returns on the investments, the long-term, long-cycle investments that we make.

斯科特，這裡顯然存在著一種平衡行為。我認為我們一直努力做的是真正堅持一些原則，確保我們分享我們創造的價值，獲得我們承擔的風險的補償，並且顯然為我們所做的投資、長期、長週期投資帶來足夠的回報。

I think Rahul talked about how we're going about some of the longer-term actions, both around some of the new programs like LEAP, how we're approaching the CLP, the spare parts pricing later this year, and the surcharges, the hopefully temporary surcharges vis-à-vis the tariffs. So all of that's in play, and again, we need to balance that out in the right way given the competing priorities here. But I think we're optimistic that we can do that smartly, fairly, constructively with our customers around the world, and do so in a way that doesn't, as you say, destruct demand.

我認為拉胡爾談到了我們如何採取一些長期行動，包括圍繞 LEAP 等一些新計劃、我們如何處理 CLP、今年晚些時候的備件定價以及附加費，希望是相對於關稅的臨時附加費。所以所有這些都在發揮作用，而且，考慮到這裡的相互競爭的優先事項，我們需要以正確的方式平衡這些因素。但我認為，我們樂觀地認為，我們可以與世界各地的客戶以明智、公平、建設性的方式做到這一點，而且這樣做的方式不會像你說的那樣破壞需求。

Liz, I think we will wrap it up there. Larry, any final comments?

莉茲，我想我們就到此為止吧。拉里，還有什麼要說的嗎？

Blaire, thank you.

布萊爾，謝謝你。

Just to close, our customers and the flying public are counting on us -- we know that -- and we're confident in our ability to deliver. The GE Aerospace team is up to that challenge. We continue to increase our delivery of services and products, keeping safety and quality top of mind, while developing the technologies for the future. We appreciate your time today and your interest in GE Aerospace.

最後，我們的客戶和飛行公眾都對我們充滿信心——我們知道這一點——並且我們對我們的能力充滿信心。GE 航空航天團隊已準備好迎接這項挑戰。我們不斷增加服務和產品的提供，並始終將安全和品質放在首位，同時開發面向未來的技術。我們感謝您今天抽出時間並關注 GE 航空航天。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝各位，女士們、先生們。今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。