奇異 (GE) 2023 Q3 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the General Electric Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) My name is Liz, and I will be your conference coordinator today. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

女士們、先生們，美好的一天，歡迎參加通用電氣 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。 （操作員說明）我叫 Liz，今天我將擔任您的會議協調員。 （操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today's conference, Steve Winoker, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please proceed.

現在我想將會議議程交給今天會議的東道主、投資者關係副總裁 Steve Winoker。請繼續。

Thanks, Liz. Welcome to GE's Third Quarter 2023 Earnings Call. I'm joined by Chairman and CEO, Larry Culp; and CFO, Rahul Ghai.

謝謝，莉茲。歡迎參加 GE 2023 年第三季財報電話會議。董事長兼執行長 Larry Culp 也加入了我的行列。和首席財務官拉胡爾·蓋伊。

Some of the statements we're making are forward-looking and based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. As described in our SEC filings and on our website, those elements may change as the world changes.

我們所做的一些聲明具有前瞻性，並且基於我們對世界和我們今天所看到的業務的最佳看法。正如我們在 SEC 文件和網站上所述，這些要素可能會隨著世界的變化而變化。

Over to Larry.

交給拉里。

Steve, thank you, and good morning, everyone. Before we start, I want to reiterate that the GE team stands firmly with our employees, customers and all those impacted by the brutal Hamas attacks on Israel in the subsequent war. Our priority has been the safety of GE employees in the region. We're doing everything possible to support them and their families.

史蒂夫，謝謝你，大家早安。在開始之前，我想重申，GE 團隊堅定地與我們的員工、客戶以及所有因哈馬斯在隨後的戰爭中對以色列發動殘酷襲擊而受到影響的人站在一起。我們的首要任務是確保該地區 GE 員工的安全。我們正在盡一切努力支持他們和他們的家人。

Last week, GE announced a $0.5 million contribution to help with the humanitarian efforts for the many people in Israel, Gaza and the surrounding areas impacted by these horrific events.

上週，GE 宣布捐款 50 萬美元，為以色列、加薩及週邊地區受這些可怕事件影響的許多人提供人道援助。

Terrorism has no place in our society. And like so many, I'm devastated by the loss of lives, violence and suffering of innocent people.

恐怖主義在我們的社會中沒有立足之地。和許多人一樣，我對無辜人民的生命損失、暴力和痛苦感到震驚。

Turning to the quarter, GE delivered a very strong performance, and we're raising full year guidance again. GE Aerospace continues to experience rapid growth driven by robust demand and solid execution, largely in Commercial Engines and Services, another significant quarter for the team. Our fleet of 41,000 commercial engines and 26,000 rotorcraft and combat engines continues to expand as we work to define the future of flight.

談到本季度，通用電氣的業績非常強勁，我們再次上調全年指引。在強勁的需求和紮實的執行力的推動下，GE航空航太繼續經歷快速成長，主要是在商用引擎和服務領域，這是該團隊的另一個重要季度。隨著我們努力定義飛行的未來，我們的機隊由 41,000 台商用發動機和 26,000 台旋翼機和戰鬥機發動機組成，不斷擴大。

Today, we're navigating a still challenging supply chain environment to deliver for and support our customers. Year-to-date, commercial engine deliveries are up 30%. Across GE and Safran's MRO shops this quarter, we've improved LEAP quick-turn shop visits over 30% year-over-year and sequentially.

如今，我們正在應對仍充滿挑戰的供應鏈環境，為客戶提供服務並提供支援。今年迄今為止，商用引擎交付量增加了 30%。本季度，在 GE 和賽峰集團的 MRO 車間中，我們將 LEAP 快速週轉車間訪問量同比和環比提高了 30% 以上。

For tomorrow, we're building our backlog and sales pipeline during unprecedented industry growth. Recently, Air Canada ordered 36 GEnx-1B engines plus 4 spares, building on GENx's rich history as the fastest-selling high-thrust engine with over 50 million flight hours.

為了明天，我們正在前所未有的行業成長期間建立我們的積壓訂單和銷售管道。最近，加拿大航空訂購了 36 台 GEnx-1B 發動機和 4 台備件，以 GENx 作為銷售最快的高推力發動機、飛行時間超過 5000 萬小時的悠久歷史為基礎。

For the future, we're investing in R&D and developing next-generation technologies. For example, we're advancing full system testing for our hybrid electric systems at our electric power center in Ohio. We're also collaborating with industry partners and NASA on an ecoDemonstrator program to measure sustainable aviation fuel impact on the environment, particularly high-altitude emissions.

面向未來，我們正在投資研發並開發下一代技術。例如，我們正在俄亥俄州的電力中心推進混合動力電動系統的全面系統測試。我們也與產業合作夥伴和 NASA 合作進行 EcoDemonstrator 計劃，以衡量永續航空燃料對環境的影響，特別是高空排放。

And our growth opportunities extend beyond commercial. In Defense, we're pleased the U.S. Army has accepted the first 2 T901 flight test engines for the Future Attack Reconnaissance Aircraft prototypes. The T901 will also upgrade the U.S. Army's Apache and Black Hawk helicopters, providing 50% more power, reduce life cycle costs and lower fuel consumption. And we've been selected for development work on the cockpit voice and flight data recorder systems for the Future Long-Range Assault Aircraft program.

我們的成長機會超出了商業範圍。在國防方面，我們很高興美國陸軍已接受用於未來攻擊偵察機原型的首批 2 台 T901 飛行測試發動機。 T901還將升級美國陸軍的阿帕契和黑鷹直升機，提供50%以上的動力，降低生命週期成本並降低油耗。我們也被選中負責未來遠端攻擊機專案的駕駛艙語音和飛行數據記錄系統的開發工作。

Next-generation programs like these demonstrate how GE's rotorcraft programs enable the military and our allies to take on more challenging missions today and in the future. And we're pleased to see Congress recognizing this important work by including funding for advanced engine development, like the XA100, in both the House and Senate fiscal year '24 defense appropriation bills.

此類下一代項目展示了通用電氣的旋翼機項目如何使軍隊和我們的盟友能夠在今天和未來承擔更具挑戰性的任務。我們很高興看到國會認識到這項重要工作，將先進發動機開發資金（如 XA100）納入眾議院和參議院 24 財年國防撥款法案中。

However, even with these strong results, we're far from satisfied. Through our lean transformation, we're making real progress, improving flow and eliminating waste. For example, our team in Pune, India has increased output of LEAP high-pressure turbine manifolds by 3x.

然而，即使取得了這些強勁的成果，我們仍遠遠不滿意。透過精實轉型，我們正在取得真正的進步，改善流程並消除浪費。例如，我們位於印度浦那的團隊已將 LEAP 高壓渦輪歧管的產量提高了 3 倍。

But we need to do more as do our suppliers, given the pace of demand for both aftermarket services and new engine deliveries. There are pockets of improvement now. Material input increased double digits sequentially, supporting spare parts delivery, which was up significantly year-over-year. We're working within our own plants and in partnership with our suppliers to deliver sequential improvements in output and turnaround times day by day, week by week.

但考慮到售後服務和新引擎交付的需求速度，我們需要像我們的供應商一樣做更多的事情。現在有一些改進的地方。材料投入較上季成長兩位數，支撐備品交付較去年同期大幅成長。我們在自己的工廠內工作，並與供應商合作，日復一日、週復一周地不斷改善產量和周轉時間。

Over to GE Vernova, where performance is strengthening pre-spin at both Renewable Energy and Power. Customers continued to invest in the energy transition, driving meaningful demand for our products and services.

GE Vernova 的表現正在加強再生能源和電力領域的預旋轉。客戶繼續投資於能源轉型，推動對我們的產品和服務的有意義的需求。

Grid and now Onshore Wind were both profitable this quarter, and we expect improved performance from here. Grid customers are increasing their infrastructure investments globally to connect renewables and improve reliability. Year-to-date, orders remained strong at more than 3x revenue and with higher margins, which will support profitable growth through the decade. We've also increased selectivity, streamlined costs and rationalized our industrial footprint, tracking toward full year profitability at Grid.

電網和現在的陸上風電本季均實現盈利，我們預計業績將從此改善。電網客戶正在全球增加基礎設施投資，以連接再生能源並提高可靠性。今年迄今為止，訂單依然強勁，收入超過三倍，利潤率更高，這將支持未來十年的獲利成長。我們也提高了選擇性，簡化了成本並合理化了我們的工業足跡，追蹤 Grid 的全年獲利能力。

I really like the way the Grid team is using lean to drive this turnaround and to deliver profitable growth. For example, across power transmission's 14 sites globally, we've reduced lead time by roughly 15% year-to-date and we're targeting a 20% reduction by year-end.

我真的很喜歡 Grid 團隊使用精益來推動這一轉變並實現盈利成長的方式。例如，在全球 14 個輸電站點，我們今年迄今已將交貨時間縮短了約 15%，我們的目標是到年底縮短 20%。

Now with Onshore. Our strategy to focus on fewer markets, pivoting more toward North America where GE Vernova is the market leader is working. And we're relying more on our workhorse products, now representing 70% of equipment volume this quarter. These shifts are translating to 700 basis points of higher margins in backlog this year.

現在在陸上。我們的策略是專注於更少的市場，更多地轉向北美，GE Vernova 是該地區的市場領導者，而這項策略正在發揮作用。我們更依賴我們的主力產品，目前佔本季設備數量的 70%。這些變化導致今年積壓訂單利潤率提高了 700 個基點。

We're still driving cost out, fewer layers, reducing head count and empowering leaders closest to the operators.

我們仍在努力降低成本、減少層級、減少員工數量，並為最接近營運商的領導者提供支援。

Finally, we're improving fleet reliability. We're now halfway through our enhancement program in the field and expect to be roughly 60% complete by year-end.

最後，我們正在提高車隊的可靠性。目前，我們的現場增強計畫已完成一半，預計到年底將完成約 60%。

As expected, Offshore Wind remains difficult this year with losses of roughly $1 billion in 2023. Next year, we expect Offshore will have similar losses, but substantially improved cash performance. So it's a tough $6 billion backlog that we're working our way through, which we expect to largely complete over the next 2 or 3 years.

正如預期的那樣，離岸風電今年仍然困難重重，到 2023 年損失約 10 億美元。明年，我們預計離岸風電將出現類似的損失，但現金表現將大幅改善。因此，我們正在努力解決 60 億美元的積壓訂單，預計將在未來 2 到 3 年內基本完成。

Meanwhile, we're making operational progress with rising availability on the 800 installed megawatts of our 6-megawatt platform. Electricity is now being produced at Dogger Bank, and we recently had the installation of our first Haliade-X turbines at Vineyard Wind.

同時，我們的 6 兆瓦平台的 800 兆瓦裝置容量不斷提高，營運方面也取得了進展。 Dogger Bank 現在正在發電，最近我們在 Vineyard Wind 安裝了第一台 Haliade-X 渦輪機。

Looking forward, we've expanded Vic Abate's role to CEO of the entire Wind business to leverage our progress in Onshore at Offshore. We're taking a similarly disciplined approach to writing new business, like we've done over at Gas, Onshore and Grid with increased rigor on pricing, terms, geographic exposure and other risks.

展望未來，我們已將 Vic Abate 的角色擴大為整個風電業務的首席執行官，以利用我們在海上和陸上的進展。我們正在採取類似的嚴格方法來開展新業務，就像我們在天然氣、陸上和電網領域所做的那樣，對定價、條款、地理風險和其他風險更加嚴格。

All in all, given Power's continued strength and with our 2 largest businesses in Renewables, Grid and now Onshore delivering plus our plan for Offshore, we're highly confident in successfully spinning off GE Vernova early in the second quarter.

總而言之，鑑於 Power 的持續實力以及我們在可再生能源、電網和現在陸上的兩大業務的交付，加上我們的海上計劃，我們對在第二季度初成功剝離 GE Vernova 充滿信心。

Across GE, I'm pleased with how we're operating as a simpler, more focused business at both GE Aerospace and GE Vernova. Another strong quarter, but plenty more to do. My thanks go out to the team for their dedication and commitment to serving our customers.

在整個 GE 中，我對 GE 航空航太和 GE Vernova 的業務運作更加簡單、更專注感到滿意。又一個強勁的季度，但還有很多工作要做。我感謝團隊為客戶服務的奉獻和承諾。

It's been nearly 2 years since we announced our intention to create 3 independent investment-grade industry leaders, and now we're closing in on the final step. Today, we announced plans to spin off GE Vernova and launch GE Aerospace in the beginning of the second quarter of 2024. Both will be listed on the New York Stock Exchange with the GE Vernova as GEV and GE Aerospace carrying forward under GE.

自從我們宣布要創建 3 個獨立的投資級行業領導者以來，已經過去了近兩年的時間，現在我們即將邁出最後一步。今天，我們宣布計劃於 2024 年第二季初分拆 GE Vernova 並成立 GE Aerospace。兩者都將在紐約證券交易所上市，GE Vernova 更名為 GEV，GE Aerospace 則在 GE 旗下繼續營運。

We've made some important hires and promotions to ensure we have the best teams leading these businesses forward. At GE Aerospace, we've completed the functional leadership team, naming our heads of Corporate Affairs, Human Resources, Legal and Treasury with experienced leaders from inside and outside GE. At GE Vernova, we added seasoned public company CFO, Ken Parks. As I mentioned a moment ago, Vic Abate is now CEO of the Wind business.

我們進行了一些重要的招募和晉升，以確保我們擁有最好的團隊來領導這些業務向前發展。在GE航空航太公司，我們已經組建了職能領導團隊，由來自GE內部和外部的經驗豐富的領導者任命我們的公司事務、人力資源、法律和財務負責人。在 GE Vernova，我們增加了經驗豐富的上市公司財務長 Ken Parks。正如我剛才提到的，Vic Abate 現在是 Wind 業務的執行長。

We've also further simplified and strengthened our balance sheet by redeeming the remainder of our preferred equity and selling a portion of our AerCap shares for $2.7 billion of proceeds. Our balance sheet is well positioned to support the launch of 2 investment-grade companies.

我們還透過贖回剩餘的優先股並出售部分 AerCap 股票以獲得 27 億美元的收益，進一步簡化和強化了我們的資產負債表。我們的資產負債表處於有利地位，可以支持兩家投資等級公司的成立。

And we're approaching some key spin milestones. GE Vernova will file a confidential Form 10 shortly with the initial public filing expected in the first quarter. Soon, we'll announce each company's Board of Directors. And in early March, GE Vernova and GE Aerospace plan to hold Investor Days.

我們正在接近一些關鍵的旋轉里程碑。 GE Vernova 很快就會提交一份機密的 Form 10，預計在第一季首次公開提交。很快，我們將公佈每家公司的董事會。 3 月初，GE Vernova 和 GE Aerospace 計劃舉辦投資者日活動。

Building on our success at GE Healthcare, we're exactly where we want to be at the end of October for both GE Aerospace and GE Vernova.

以 GE 醫療保健的成功為基礎，GE 航空航太公司和 GE Vernova 都在 10 月底達到了我們想要達到的目標。

Now over to Rahul for more detail on our results.

現在請拉胡爾了解有關我們結果的更多詳細資訊。

Thank you, Larry. Turning to Slide 4, I'll speak to the quarter on an organic basis. Overall, we delivered meaningful growth across our headline metrics. Orders were up double digits with services up 15%, driven by commercial aerospace; and equipment up 22% with growth in all segments.

謝謝你，拉里。轉向幻燈片 4，我將有機地談論該季度。總體而言，我們的整體指標實現了有意義的成長。在商業航空航太的推動下，訂單增加了兩位數，服務增加了 15%；隨著所有細分市場的成長，設備和設備成長了 22%。

Revenue increased 18%, benefiting from strong market demand, improved execution and pricing. Aerospace was led by Commercial Services and Engines, Renewables was led by Grid and Offshore and Power from heavy-duty gas turbines and Aeroderivatives.

受益於強勁的市場需求、改進的執行和定價，收入成長了 18%。航空航太以商業服務和發動機為主導，再生能源以電網和離岸為主導，電力以重型燃氣渦輪機和航空衍生品為主導。

All segments contributed to adjusted margin expansion of 760 basis points. This included the absence of last year's Wind-related charges and the benefits of volume, price, net of inflation, and productivity and continued investments in growth.

所有部門的調整後利潤率增加了 760 個基點。這包括取消去年與風能相關的費用，以及數量、價格、扣除通貨膨脹、生產力和持續成長投資的好處。

Adjusted EPS was $0.82, up almost $1 year-over-year. Excluding last year's Wind-related charges, adjusted margin still expanded 400 basis points and EPS was up $0.59 or more than triple what we delivered last year.

調整後每股收益為 0.82 美元，年增近 1 美元。不包括去年與風能相關的費用，調整後的利潤率仍然擴大了 400 個基點，每股收益增長了 0.59 美元，是我們去年交付的三倍多。

We generated $1.7 billion of free cash flow, up roughly $1 billion, largely driven by earnings.

我們產生了 17 億美元的自由現金流，增加了約 10 億美元，這主要是由獲利推動的。

Working capital was a positive $400 million flow, driven by disciplined receivables management, while inventory remained inflated due to continued supply chain challenges.

在嚴格的應收帳款管理的推動下，營運資金達到了 4 億美元的正流量，而由於持續的供應鏈挑戰，庫存仍然居高不下。

Year-to-date, free cash flow was $2.2 billion, up $2.5 billion, reflecting higher earnings, reduced working capital and improved linearity.

年初至今，自由現金流為 22 億美元，增加 25 億美元，反映出收益增加、營運資本減少和線性度改善。

Switching to corporate. Results improved significantly due to energy financial services gain on sale from investments and higher interest income. Also, as we prepare to reduce costs, as we prepare to become standalone businesses, for the year, we now expect expenses in the $500 million range.

轉為企業。由於能源金融服務投資銷售收益和利息收入增加，業績顯著改善。此外，當我們準備好降低成本、準備成為獨立企業時，我們現在預計今年的支出將在 5 億美元左右。

At Insurance, we completed our annual review of liability cash flow assumptions under the new accounting standard. This resulted in an immaterial adjustments to earnings, indicating claims experience is consistent with our models.

在保險業，我們完成了新會計準則下負債現金流量假設的年度審查。這導致收益發生了無關緊要的調整，表明索賠經驗與我們的模型一致。

Given GE Aerospace's strength and GE Vernova's improvement, we are raising full year guidance and now expecting revenue growth of low teens, up from low double digits; adjusted EPS of $2.55 to $2.65, up $0.40 at the midpoint, largely from improvement in operating profit that we now expect to be in a range of $5.2 billion to $5.5 billion; and free cash flow of $4.7 billion to $5.1 billion, up $550 million at the midpoint, largely from higher earnings and lower AD&A outflow.

考慮到 GE 航空航太公司的實力和 GE Vernova 的進步，我們正在上調全年指引，目前預計營收成長將從兩位數的低點增長至十幾位；調整後每股收益為 2.55 美元至 2.65 美元，中間上漲 0.40 美元，這主要是由於營業利潤的改善，我們現在預計營業利潤將在 52 億美元至 55 億美元之間；自由現金流為 47 億美元至 51 億美元，中間增加了 5.5 億美元，主要是因為收益增加和 AD&A 流出減少。

Now spending a moment on each business, starting with GE Aerospace. Demand remains robust with GE and CFM departures growing mid-teens year-over-year. Orders were up 34% with strong growth in both equipment and services.

現在花點時間討論每項業務，從通用電氣航空航太公司開始。需求依然強勁，GE 和 CFM 的離職人數比去年同期成長了十幾歲。訂單成長 34%，設備和服務均強勁成長。

Revenue was up 25%, led by Commercial Engines and Services up 29% and Defense growing 8%.

營收成長 25%，其中商業引擎和服務成長 29%，國防成長 8%。

Profit grew over $400 million or more than 30%.

利潤成長超過 4 億美元，增幅超過 30%。

Notably, margins expanded 120 basis points to reach 20.4%. Higher services, volume and pricing, net of inflation, more than offset investments and adverse mix.

值得注意的是，利潤率擴大了 120 個基點，達到 20.4%。扣除通貨膨脹因素後，更高的服務、數量和定價足以抵消投資和不利的組合。

In our commercial business, services strength continued to drive profit with services revenue up 31% from volume, pricing and heavier work scopes. External spare parts were up more than 35% and internal shop visits grew 2% with supply chain constraints impacting growth. Commercial Engines revenue grew 23% with LEAP deliveries up 12% year-over-year.

在我們的商業業務中，服務實力繼續推動利潤成長，服務收入因數量、定價和更繁重​​的工作範圍而增加了 31%。由於供應鏈限制影響了成長，外部備件成長了 35% 以上，內部車間訪問量增加了 2%。商用引擎收入成長 23%，LEAP 交付量年增 12%。

We are now planning for a 40% to 45% increase in fleet deliveries this year, down from our 50% target at the beginning of the year. We now expect OE revenue to grow low to mid-20s and services revenue to be up mid- to high 20s for the year.

我們現在計劃今年機隊交付量增加 40% 至 45%，低於年初 50% 的目標。我們現在預計今年 OE 收入將成長到 20 多歲，服務收入將成長到 20 多歲。

In Defense, book-to-bill remained strong this quarter, again, greater than 1 and 1.3x year-to-date, highlighting the strong demand environment and quality of our franchisees. Revenue grew high single digits with strength in services and Edison Works offsetting lower unit deliveries.

在國防領域，本季的訂單出貨比仍然強勁，今年迄今分別超過 1 倍和 1.3 倍，凸顯了強勁的需求環境和我們特許經營商的品質。由於服務和愛迪生工廠的實力抵消了單位交付量的下降，收入增加了高個位數。

Based on GE Aerospace's year-to-date strength, we are raising revenue growth to the low 20s and profit to be about $6 billion, up roughly $1.2 billion year-over-year with free cash flow growth trending better than prior expectations.

根據 GE 航空航太公司今年迄今的實力，我們將營收成長提高到 20 多歲左右，利潤成長到約 60 億美元，年增約 12 億美元，自由現金流成長趨勢好於先前的預期。

Moving to GE Vernova. Lean, along with better underwriting, selectivity and productivity, is delivering stronger results we mentioned earlier at Grid and now Onshore. At Renewables, orders grew again, up 3% this quarter and up more than 80% year-to-date to nearly $18 billion. Grid orders increased over 50% this quarter. And while primarily in equipment business today, we are starting to grow Grid services that was up double digits this quarter.

搬到 GE Vernova。精益加上更好的承保、選擇性和生產力，正在帶來我們之前在 Grid 和現在的 Onshore 提到的更強勁的業績。在再生能源領域，訂單再次成長，本季成長 3%，年初至今成長超過 80%，達到近 180 億美元。本季電網訂單成長超過50%。雖然今天主要從事設備業務，但我們開始發展網格服務，本季成長了兩位數。

In Onshore, North American equipment orders for the quarter were up nearly 40%, and year-to-date are up more than 2.5x over prior year. The IRA continues to be transformative, establishing multiyear U.S. demand visibility for future growth. Internationally, Onshore orders were down meaningfully but at better margins, consistent with our strategy of greater selectivity.

在陸上，本季北美設備訂單成長了近 40%，年初至今比前一年成長了 2.5 倍以上。 IRA 繼續具有變革性，為未來成長建立了多年的美國需求可見度。在國際上，在岸訂單大幅下降，但利潤率有所提高，這與我們提高選擇性的策略一致。

Revenue grew 14%. Grid increased with double-digit growth at each business. At Onshore, North American equipment growth was more than offset by lower repower and international equipment. At Offshore, revenue more than tripled year-over-year and grew sequentially with higher nacelle output.

營收成長 14%。網格每項業務均達到兩位數成長。在陸上，北美設備的成長被較低的再發電和國際設備所抵消。在海上，收入年增了兩倍多，並且隨著機艙產量的增加而連續增長。

Profit improved from our turnaround efforts. Excluding last year's elevated reserve, Renewables margin still expanded roughly 600 basis points driven by continued price and productivity. Onshore and Grid margins expanded due to price and productivity, and Grid margins also benefited from additional volume.

我們的扭虧為盈努力提高了利潤。不包括去年增加的儲備，在持續的價格和生產力的推動下，再生能源利潤率仍擴大了約 600 個基點。由於價格和生產力的原因，陸上和電網利潤率擴大，電網利潤率也受益於銷售量的增加。

For the year, Renewables now expect low double-digit revenue growth. We are maintaining the guidance for significantly better year-over-year profit with Onshore and Grid improvement more than offsetting the Offshore pressure.

今年，再生能源預計收入將實現兩位數的低成長。我們維持利潤年比大幅成長的指引，陸上和電網的改善足以抵消海上壓力。

Turning to Power. We delivered solid year-over-year revenue growth and margin expansion with seasonally lower outages. Equipment orders grew slightly as higher heavy-duty gas turbines more than offset lower Aeroderivative units. Services declined slightly as high single-digit growth in gas transactional services was offset by Aeroderivative and steam services.

轉向電源。我們實現了穩健的同比收入成長和利潤成長，並且季節性中斷減少。設備訂單略有增長，因為較高的重型燃氣渦輪機足以抵消較低的航改機組。服務業略有下降，原因是天然氣交易服務的高個位數成長被航改服務和蒸汽服務所抵消。

For the year, we still expect total services orders to grow low single digits.

今年，我們仍然預期服務訂單總額將成長低個位數。

Revenue grew 9%, largely on price and higher scope on heavy-duty gas turbine and Aeroderivative equipment. Services grew again, up low single digits.

收入成長 9%，主要是由於重型燃氣渦輪機和航改設備的價格和範圍擴大。服務業再次成長，增幅僅為個位數。

Profit grew roughly 60% with 200 basis points of margin expansion driven by higher volume, pricing and productivity, which more than offset inflation pressure.

由於產量、定價和生產率的提高，利潤增長了約 60%，利潤率擴大了 200 個基點，這足以抵消通膨壓力。

Year-to-date, Power orders have grown low single digits, revenue mid-single digits and margins have expanded over 100 basis points. This was led by services including higher gas utilization, up low single digits, benefiting from a continued coal-to-gas switching. We also shipped 9 HA units this year and now have more than 47 gigawatts of installed capacity, continuing to extend our HA services billings to $1 billion by mid-2020s.

今年迄今，電力訂單成長幅度較低，營收為中個位數，利潤率成長超過 100 個基點。受惠於持續的煤改氣，服務業帶動了天然氣利用率的提高，增幅較低個位數。我們今年也出貨了 9 台 HA 設備，目前裝置容量超過 47 吉瓦，到 2020 年代中期，繼續將我們的 HA 服務帳單擴大到 10 億美元。

In the fourth quarter, Power is well positioned for sequential profit growth from seasonally higher services volume. For the year, Power continues to expect low single-digit revenue growth with better year-over-year profit.

第四季度，Power 處於有利位置，可透過季節性增加的服務量實現連續利潤成長。今年，Power 繼續預計營收將實現低個位數成長，而年比利潤將有所改善。

Taken together, for GE Vernova, we are now expecting high single-digit revenue growth and profit improvement of over $800 million year-over-year at the midpoint. We are raising the low end of our profit guidance driven by both Renewables and Power and now expect negative $300 million to negative $100 million of operating profit as we continue to expect flat to slightly improved free cash flow.

綜上所述，我們現在預計 GE Vernova 的營收將實現高個位數成長，利潤將年增超過 8 億美元。我們正在提高由再生能源和電力驅動的利潤指引的下限，目前預計營業利潤將達到負 3 億美元至負 1 億美元，因為我們繼續預計自由現金流將持平或略有改善。

Overall, we are really encouraged proving with Grid and Onshore that we can deliver better results. This, combined with Power's continued strong performance, will drive meaningful profit and cash flow improvement at GE Vernova next year.

總的來說，我們非常高興透過電網和陸上證明我們可以提供更好的結果。這與 Power 持續強勁的業績相結合，將推動 GE Vernova 明年的利潤和現金流顯著改善。

And with that, let me turn it back to Larry.

接下來，讓我把話題轉回拉里身上。

Rahul, thank you. To summarize, GE Aerospace grew rapidly again, and GE Vernova Renewables improved sequentially and Power continued to perform well. Overall, a very strong quarter for GE, one that gives us confidence and thus allows us to raise our full year guide. More importantly, we're poised to launch 2 innovative global service-focused industry leaders in less than 6 months.

拉胡爾，謝謝你。總而言之，GE Aerospace 再次快速成長，GE Vernova Renewables 持續改善，Power 繼續表現良好。總體而言，對於通用電氣來說，這是一個非常強勁的季度，這給了我們信心，使我們能夠提高全年指導。更重要的是，我們準備在不到 6 個月的時間內推出 2 個以服務為中心的創新全球產業領導者。

I'm proud of our team and even more excited for what lies ahead. Steve, let's go to Q&A.

我為我們的團隊感到自豪，對未來更加興奮。史蒂夫，讓我們開始問答。

(Operator Instructions) Liz, please open the line.

（操作員指示）Liz，請接通線路。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from the line of Scott Deuschle with Deutsche Bank.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自德意志銀行的 Scott Deuschle。

Rahul, is the lower LEAP delivery guide a function of softer narrowbody deliveries at the airframers? Or is this more related to challenges to your own production ramp-up? And then how should we think about the impact to 2024?

拉胡爾，較低的 LEAP 交付導軌是否是機身上較軟的窄體交付的函數？還是這與您自己的產量提升所面臨的挑戰更相關？那我們該如何看待對2024年的影響呢？

Yes. Let me start, and Larry, I'm sure can add here. It's primarily a function of our own supply chain challenges that we are having internally. As we look at our supply chain environment, while we are working extremely hard, we are seeing an improvement in total material inflow, the supplier delinquencies still remain high, actually were up sequentially about 25% from 2Q to 3Q. So that is impacting our output on the other end. And for next year, we're still expecting 40% to 45% improvement in LEAP deliveries from where we end this year.

是的。讓我開始吧，拉里，我確信可以在這裡補充。這主要是我們內部面臨的供應鏈挑戰的結果。當我們審視我們的供應鏈環境時，雖然我們非常努力地工作，但我們看到總物料流入有所改善，但供應商拖欠率仍然很高，實際上從第二季度到第三季度環比增長了約25%。所以這會影響我們另一端的輸出。對於明年，我們仍預計 LEAP 交付量將比今年底提高 40% 至 45%。

Our next question comes from the line of Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自沃爾夫研究中心的奈傑爾·科 (Nigel Coe)。

Just one question. So I think, Larry, you mentioned the Offshore losses, about $1 billion this year and I think you mentioned similar next year. Is there still a pathway to breakeven to profit for Vernova -- sorry, for Renewables next year?

只有一個問題。所以我認為，拉里，你提到了今年大約 10 億美元的離岸損失，我認為你明年也提到了類似的損失。 Vernova 是否還有辦法達到損益兩平（對不起，明年的再生能源公司）？

Yes. I would say, Nigel, that we're really pleased overall with Renewables. Again, with Onshore turning profitable in the quarter, with Grid now profitable 2 quarters in a row with the prospect of being profitable, I think for the full year, that really, I think, sets us up very well. But Offshore will be difficult. That's what's behind those underlying numbers for this year and for next.

是的。奈傑爾，我想說，我們總體上對再生能源非常滿意。同樣，隨著陸上在本季度實現盈利，電網現在連續兩個季度盈利，並有望實現盈利，我認為對於全年來說，這確實讓我們處於非常有利的狀態。但離岸將會很困難。這就是今年和明年這些基本數字背後的原因。

I do think we're making the operational progress that we talked about, both the 6 megawatts and the new projects with Dogger Bank and with Vineyard. But it is a problematic financial profile. We'll work our way through the $6 billion backlog over the next couple of years, as we indicated.

我確實認為我們正在取得我們所談論的營運進展，包括 6 兆瓦以及與 Dogger Bank 和 Vineyard 的新項目。但這是一個有問題的財務狀況。正如我們所指出的，我們將在未來幾年內努力解決 60 億美元的積壓訂單。

I think with the progress and the momentum we've got in Grid and with Onshore, with Power as well, we've got -- we should deliver sequential improvement in profitability from here, but Offshore will be difficult. I think what we're encouraged by, though, is that the application of what we've done in the other businesses around selectivity is really relevant here.

我認為，隨著我們在電網、陸上、電力方面取得的進展和勢頭，我們應該從這裡開始實現盈利能力的連續改善，但海上將很困難。不過，我認為令我們感到鼓舞的是，我們在其他業務中圍繞選擇性所做的工作的應用在這裡確實很重要。

We know the industry is ready for a reset. You've seen that in the comments from a number of folks in New York State over the last couple of weeks as well. So we think we can make a much better business with Offshore Wind, but we're staring at some challenges that we need to address here in the fourth quarter and in '24 for sure.

我們知道該行業已準備好進行重置。您在過去幾週紐約州許多人的評論中也看到了這一點。因此，我們認為我們可以透過離岸風電創造更好的業務，但我們正面臨一些挑戰，我們需要在第四季和 24 年解決這些挑戰。

Our next question comes from the line of Seth Seifman with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Seth Seifman。

So I wonder maybe, Larry or Rahul, if you could talk about the aftermarket expectations. You said mid- to high 20s this year. Maybe kind of how that's changed or if it's changed between internal shop visits and spares? And then kind of how we interpret the big sequential growth in spares during the quarter. Was that -- is that a new sustainable level? Is that -- was that driven by prebuy ahead of a price increase? Is it mostly -- is it driven by the price increase itself? Maybe just to level set expectations on aftermarket.

所以我想知道拉里或拉胡爾是否可以談談售後市場的預期。你說今年20多歲。也許是如何改變的，或者在內部商店訪問和備件之間是否發生了變化？然後我們如何解釋本季備件的連續大幅成長。這是一個新的可持續水平嗎？這是由價格上漲之前的預購所推動的嗎？主要是由價格上漲本身所驅動的嗎？也許只是為了調整對售後市場的期望。

Yes. So let's start with the second part of the question first, Seth, and we'll go back to where you started. So on the spare part revenue, spare part revenue was up about 35% or more than 35% this quarter.

是的。因此，讓我們先從問題的第二部分開始，Seth，然後我們將回到您開始的地方。因此，就備件收入而言，本季備件收入成長了約 35%，甚至超過 35%。

I would say 3 main things: volume, pricing and increased work scope. Volume growth continues from mid-teens departures in the quarter and then stronger departure growth in the first half, which leads to volume in the third quarter. And also keep in mind that it's less of a challenge to kind of ship spare parts versus completing a shop visit or an engine, so that also helps with shipping spare parts when the volume is strong.

我想說三個主要內容：數量、定價和擴大的工作範圍。從本季度的十幾歲左右的出發量開始持續增長，然後是上半年的更強勁的出發量增長，這導致了第三季度的成交量。另請記住，與完成商店訪問或發動機相比，運輸船舶備件的挑戰較小，因此這也有助於在數量強勁時運輸備件。

The second part, I would say, going back to pricing, we implemented a high single-digit price increase this quarter. Now we had pulled forward the price increase from the fourth quarter to the third quarter. So we got a couple of months of incremental price in the quarter.

第二部分，我想說，回到定價，我們本季實現了個位數的高價格上漲。現在我們把漲價從第四季提前到了第三季。因此，我們在本季度獲得了幾個月的增量價格。

And then combine that with what Larry has been pushing for the last 12 to 18 months as just very, very strong pricing discipline. So it's not just about implementing a price increase, it's also about managing the implementation of that price increase. So I think we're doing a better job of that.

然後將其與 Larry 在過去 12 到 18 個月裡一直推動的非常非常嚴格的定價紀律結合起來。因此，這不僅是實施提價，還涉及管理提價的實施。所以我認為我們在這方面做得更好。

The last thing I would say is the work scopes have been heavier, both on the narrowbodies and on the widebodies. So widebodies, they're coming back to kind of second shop visits. Narrowbodies is primarily a phenomena of customers kind of trying to constrain spending in challenging times, especially in China last year. So now as they have a little bit more cash with departures growing, their work scopes are increasing.

我要說的最後一件事是，無論是窄體飛機還是寬體飛機，工作範圍都更加繁重。所以寬體機，他們會回來進行第二次商店訪問。窄體飛機主要是一種客戶在充滿挑戰的時期試圖限制支出的現象，尤其是去年在中國。因此，現在隨著離職人數的增加，他們的現金增加，他們的工作範圍也在擴大。

So I would say those are the 3 main levers of higher spare parts growth in the quarter, which was more than 35%. I would not attribute any of that to pre-CLP buy.

所以我想說，這些是本季備件成長超過 35% 的 3 個主要槓桿。我不會將這一切歸因於 CLP 之前的購買。

Now as you look forward, to the first part of your question, between spare parts growth and shop visits, spare parts, I would say, are strong. We expect kind of mid-20s growth in the fourth quarter here, which will be in line with where the departures are.

現在，正如您所期待的，對於問題的第一部分，在備件增長和商店訪問之間，我想說，備件很強勁。我們預計第四季將出現 20 年代中期的成長，這將與離開的情況一致。

Shop visits, I think for the year, we're in that kind of low teens to mid-teens category. I think that's what we are thinking right now given how challenging supply chain has been and shop visits were up a couple of points in the third quarter. So we think that for the year, we're kind of in the low teens to mid-teens range.

我認為今年的商店訪問量處於青少年到青少年中間的類別。我認為這就是我們現在正在考慮的事情，因為供應鏈面臨著巨大的挑戰，第三季的商店訪問量增加了幾個百分點。因此，我們認為今年的價格處於十幾歲到十幾歲之間的範圍內。

Our next question comes from the line of Julian Mitchell with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

Maybe just my question around Renewables and sort of fully understand the Offshore backlog. But maybe just wanted to focus on a couple of other things. One was are you seeing any shift in the kind of new orders -- or new equipment orders picture in Renewables just because it seems a tougher environment for project development and financing in general across different industries. Just wondered if your perspective on that has changed for the coming quarters?

也許只是我關於再生能源的問題，並且完全了解海上的積壓。但也許只是想專注於其他幾件事。一是您是否會看到再生能源領域的新訂單或新設備訂單情況發生任何變化，僅僅是因為不同行業的專案開發和融資環境似乎更加嚴峻。只是想知道您對此的看法在未來幾季是否會改變？

And sort of allied to that, because of the working capital dynamics of Renewables with customer advances and so on, any thoughts around sort of what level of cash balance Vernova should have upon spin and sort of any mix of GE versus external financing for that or funding for that cash balance?

與此相關的是，由於再生能源的營運資金動態與客戶預付款等，任何關於 Vernova 在旋轉時應擁有多少現金餘額水平的想法以及 GE 與外部融資的任何組合或為該現金餘額提供資金？

Sure. Well, to start with, I think what we have seen through the course of the year, again, particularly with Onshore and Grid, is just incredibly healthy demand despite the rate environment.

當然。好吧，首先，我認為我們在這一年中再次看到，特別是在陸上和電網方面，儘管利率環境不佳，但需求仍然非常健康。

Obviously, the incentives here, the incentives in Europe, the push with respect to the energy transition at large really has kept us very busy. So no change really whatsoever with respect to our commentary in that regard.

顯然，這裡的激勵措施、歐洲的激勵措施以及整個能源轉型的推動確實讓我們非常忙碌。因此，我們在這方面的評論實際上沒有任何變化。

I think as we look into the fourth quarter, as we look into '24, any 1 project can move for various reasons. But I think we continue to be quite optimistic about the underlying demand that we see in those businesses. We know Offshore has its own dynamics again to the reset comment I made a moment ago. But by and large, I think we're feeling very good about the demand environment.

我認為，當我們展望第四季時，當我們展望 24 年時，任何一個專案都可能因各種原因而改變。但我認為我們對這些業務的潛在需求仍然非常樂觀。我們知道離岸公司對於我剛才所做的重置評論再次有自己的動態。但總的來說，我認為我們對需求環境感覺非常好。

Right. And just to add to that, Julian, not only is the demand environment good, but as Larry kind of mentioned in his prepared remarks, we are seeing better pricing and the selectivity, the strategy that Scott, Larry, Vic or everybody has been pushing come through.

正確的。朱利安，補充一點，不僅需求環境良好，而且正如拉里在他準備好的演講中提到的那樣，我們看到更好的定價和選擇性，這是斯科特、拉里、維克或每個人一直在推動的策略通過。

Our Grid backlog margins were up about 3 points and Onshore backlog margins were up about 7 points in the quarter. So that should obviously help with -- through the turnaround efforts in 2024. So strong demand environment, good pricing on the Renewables orders.

本季度，我們的電網積壓訂單利潤率上升了約 3 個百分點，陸上積壓訂單利潤率上升了約 7 個百分點。因此，這顯然應該有助於 2024 年的扭虧為盈。如此強勁的需求環境，再生能源訂單的良好定價。

Now switching to your second question on the cash balance. First and foremost, we do expect both Vernova and Aerospace to be investment-grade at spin, right? So that's kind of priority #1. And as we announced back in September that we do expect that Vernova will spin in a net cash position.

現在轉向關於現金餘額的第二個問題。首先也是最重要的是，我們確實預計 Vernova 和 Aerospace 都將達到投資等級，對吧？所以這是第一要務。正如我們在 9 月宣布的那樣，我們確實預計 Vernova 將保持淨現金狀況。

So we're working through our framework on exactly what that number looks like. Obviously, what we want to do is we want to make sure that both companies have enough operating cash at the time of spin.

因此，我們正在透過我們的框架來研究這個數字的具體情況。顯然，我們想要做的是確保兩家公司在分拆時都有足夠的營運現金。

In addition, what will also happen is, as you probably noticed in our 10-Q, we have about $2 billion of restricted cash. And most of that is with Vernova right now as we think about where that cash balance is.

此外，正如您可能在我們的 10-Q 中註意到的那樣，我們還有大約 20 億美元的受限現金。當我們考慮現金餘額在哪裡時，其中大部分都在 Vernova 身上。

So as we think about the cash balance at spin, it will be the restricted cash for both businesses plus the operating needs of that business. And there's enough cash on the balance sheet at GE to make sure that this happens, and we definitely don't need to tap into any external markets to make sure that both companies have enough cash at spin. And we'll give you an update as we get closer to spin.

因此，當我們考慮旋轉現金餘額時，這將是兩家企業的受限現金加上該企業的營運需求。通用電氣的資產負債表上有足夠的現金來確保這種情況的發生，我們絕對不需要利用任何外部市場來確保兩家公司都有足夠的現金。當我們接近旋轉時，我們會向您提供最新消息。

Our next question comes from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Sheila Kahyaoglu 和 Jefferies 的對話。

Maybe if I could ask about Aerospace margins. Same as last quarter, very good, 19.4% year-to-date, above 20% in the quarter just helped lift the guide up, which still implies a sequential step down in Q4. So the OE mix headwind with the 450 [LEAPs] in the fourth quarter to hit the 1,650 is, I guess, a lot of it. Do you still expect 250 basis points of OE headwind this year? How does that filter into '24 and the breakeven by '26?

也許我可以詢問一下航空航太的利潤率。與上個季度相同，非常好，今年迄今為 19.4%，本季高於 20%，只是幫助提升了指導值，這仍然意味著第四季度的連續下降。因此，OE 在第四季度將逆風與 450 [LEAPs] 混合在一起，達到 1,650，我想，這是很多。您仍然預計今年 OE 逆風將達到 250 個基點嗎？這如何影響 24 年以及 26 年的損益平衡？

Okay. It's a multi-part question, Sheila. I'm going to try to remember everything. If I forget, just please jump in here.

好的。這是一個由多個部分組成的問題，希拉。我會努力記住一切。如果我忘記了，請跳到這裡。

So you're right. I think we had a good quarter. 25% revenue growth, $400 million profit growth, 120 basis points of margin expansion in the quarter continue to give us confidence to raise the year. So what we did in the quarter, as you saw in the guide, we raised the guide for the year by about $500 million of revenue and slightly more than $250 million of profit. So about a 50% drop-through for the incremental revenue. Obviously, now part of that is the higher services revenue, lower OE revenue that you referenced.

所以你是對的。我認為我們度過了一個不錯的季度。本季 25% 的營收成長、4 億美元的利潤成長、120 個基點的利潤率擴張繼續讓我們有信心提高全年業績。因此，正如您在指南中看到的那樣，我們在本季所做的事情使今年的收入指南提高了約 5 億美元，利潤略高於 2.5 億美元。因此，增量收入的下降幅度約為 50%。顯然，其中一部分是您提到的服務收入增加、原廠收入減少。

So as you kind of think about now what the fourth quarter looks like as you go from third quarter to the fourth quarter, there is about $200 million of incremental OE revenue. And even though services revenue is still strong kind of mid-teens, it is a lower sequential growth just given the timing of the spare part shipments. So that's impacting the quarterly margin dynamic to a little bit.

因此，當您現在想想第四季從第三季到第四季的情況時，您會發現 OE 收入增量約為 2 億美元。儘管服務收入仍然強勁，處於十幾歲左右，但考慮到備件發貨的時間，環比增長較低。因此，這對季度利潤率動態產生了一些影響。

But having said all that, we're still expecting kind of low 20s percent revenue growth in the year for GE Aerospace, about $1.2 billion to $1.3 billion of profit, close to 1 point of margin expansion as we end the year. So it will be a really, really good year.

但話雖如此，我們仍然預計 GE 航空航太公司今年的營收成長率將在 20% 左右，利潤約為 12 億至 13 億美元，年底時利潤率將擴大接近 1 個百分點。所以這將會是非常非常好的一年。

Now as you pointed out, LEAP deliveries are a little bit lighter than we had initially expected. Still a pretty substantial ramp in the fourth quarter we're expecting. Based on the revised guidance that we just provided, we expect about a 15% growth from 3Q to 4Q and a pretty big ramp year-over-year.

現在，正如您所指出的，LEAP 交付量比我們最初預期的要少一些。我們預計第四季仍將出現相當大的成長。根據我們剛剛提供的修訂後的指導，我們預計第三季到第四季將成長約 15%，並且比去年同期成長相當大。

Now some of the LEAP deliveries have pushed out into '24 and '25. So as we think about the outer year margins, we had guided to about 1 point of margin headwind from LEAP between '23 to '25. So now that will just be marginally higher, just movement of LEAP engine shipments from '23 to '24. I don't know if I covered all the questions.

現在，一些 LEAP 交付已推遲到 24 年和 25 年。因此，當我們考慮外部年度利潤率時，我們預計 23 年至 25 年期間 LEAP 的利潤率逆風約為 1 個百分點。因此，現在，LEAP 引擎的出貨量從 23 年到 24 年的變化將略有增加。我不知道我是否涵蓋了所有問題。

Our next question comes from the line of Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部的迪恩德雷 (Deane Dray)。

Was hoping if we could get some comments on the upside in free cash flow this quarter and the progress that you're making in having free cash flow more linear through the year? Looks like that's working. And any comments on the dynamics we should expect for free cash flow in the fourth quarter. Any puts or takes?

希望我們能就本季自由現金流的上行情況以及您在全年自由現金流更加線性方面取得的進展獲得一些評論嗎？看起來這很有效。以及我們對第四季度自由現金流的預期動態的任何評論。有看跌期權或看跌期權嗎？

Well, Deane, thanks for noticing, right, to be up $1 billion in the quarter year-over-year; to be at, what, $2.2 billion here year-to-date. This was the time of the year in years past where we were kind of holding our breath waiting for all the cash flow in the year to come in, in the fourth quarter.

好吧，Deane，感謝您注意到本季年增 10 億美元；年初至今已達 22 億美元。這是過去幾年中每年的這個時候，我們有點屏住呼吸，等待今年所有現金流在第四季度到來。

I think what you see again is a much more linear approach to running the business, coupled with obviously steady demand through the course of the year, both at Aero and across Vernova. So much of what we've tried to do in moving away operationally from the year-end dynamics, let alone the quarter-end dynamics, I think has borne some fruit. But we are far from, so to say, a perfectly level loaded business at both Aerospace and Vernova.

我認為您再次看到的是一種更線性的業務運作方式，加上這一年 Aero 和 Vernova 的需求明顯穩定。我認為，我們在營運上努力擺脫年底動態的努力已經取得了一些成果，更不用說季末動態了。但可以說，我們航空航太和 Vernova 的業務還遠遠沒有達到完美水準。

But we know as we continue to make progress, there will not only be the positive cash effects that you're pointing at. But frankly, there's a lot of cost we think we can pull out over time as well as we drive greater linearity and have less month-end, quarter-end, year-end sprints, which we know we can do, but we rarely do efficiently.

但我們知道，隨著我們不斷取得進展，不僅會產生您所指出的正面的現金效應。但坦白說，我們認為隨著時間的推移，我們可以降低很多成本，同時我們可以提高線性度，減少月末、季末、年末的衝刺，我們知道我們可以做到這一點，但我們很少這樣做有效率的。

Yes. And for the fourth quarter, just on that number question, just take the $4.7 billion to $5.1 billion midpoint, subtract our year-to-date number that Larry mentioned, Deane, you end with a few billion.

是的。對於第四季度，就這個數字問題而言，只需取 47 億美元至 51 億美元的中點，減去拉里提到的年初至今的數字，迪恩，你最終會得到幾十億美元。

Our next question comes from the line of Andy Kaplowitz with Citigroup.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的安迪·卡普洛維茨（Andy Kaplowitz）。

Larry, could you give us more color on how you're thinking about the Defense business at this point? It was up high single-digits in the quarter. It does seem like you're having a better year this year. Have you turned the corner towards better operating performance in that business? Could you talk about the budgeting environment for that business moving forward?

拉里（Larry），您能給我們更多關於您目前如何看待國防業務的資訊嗎？本季此數字實現高個位數成長。看起來你今年確實過得更好。您是否已扭轉該業務的困境，並取得更好的經營績效？您能談談該業務未來的預算環境嗎？

Well, Andy, I would say that we have made some progress, but we are far from satisfied. You clearly saw the high single-digit growth in the quarter and now year-to-date. And I think we'll be in that zone for the year.

嗯，安迪，我想說我們已經取得了一些進展，但我們還遠遠不夠滿足。您清楚地看到本季和今年迄今的高個位數成長。我認為今年我們將處於這個區域。

But the supply chain challenges that we've talked about, which has made some of our equipment shipments somewhat lumpy, both with respect to our internal process yields and our material availability from our suppliers, is still job 1 in this business, right?

但我們所討論的供應鏈挑戰仍然是這項業務的首要任務，這使得我們的一些設備出貨量有些不穩定，無論是在我們的內部流程產量還是我們供應商的材料可用性方面，這仍然是這項業務的首要任務，對嗎？

I think if you look at what we've done inside of our own shops, we're really encouraged by the process improvements that we've been able to lay in. If you look at some of the delays that are a function of quality internally in the third quarter, we were at our lowest level in the last 2 years. Still plenty to do, but that's a lot of progress.

我認為，如果您看看我們在自己的商店內所做的事情，我們將對我們能夠進行的流程改進感到非常鼓舞。如果您看看一些與品質相關的延誤在第三季度內部，我們處於過去兩年來的最低水準。仍有許多工作要做，但已經取得了很大進展。

We're adding capacity, not only in production, but in our test cells, particularly up the road here in Lynn.

我們正在增加產能，不僅是在生產方面，而且是在我們的測試單元中，特別是在林恩的道路上。

And we have put even more people into the field with the supply base. Rahul mentioned earlier some of the delays that we have seen in terms of on-time performance by our suppliers. And that covers an array of commodities, be it just general raw materials, castings, forgings, valves and the like, there's a lot of work to do to create that flow that Deane and I were talking about a moment ago.

我們也向供應基地派遣了更多人員。拉胡爾早些時候提到了我們在供應商按時履行方面看到的一些延誤。這涵蓋了一系列商品，無論是一般原料、鑄件、鍛造件、閥門等，要創造迪恩和我剛才談到的流程，還有很多工作要做。

I think in terms of the top line environment, again, really encouraged by the progress that we're seeing with FARA. I think we are heartened by what the Congress is poised to do with respect to continuing to support the XA100. And we know as we look forward, just given the dynamics in the world, there's going to be plenty of opportunity for us, both on rotorcraft and in combat, to continue to grow this business.

我認為，就營收環境而言，我們在 FARA 方面看到的進展再次讓我們深受鼓舞。我認為我們對國會準備繼續支持 XA100 的做法感到鼓舞。我們知道，展望未來，考慮到世界的動態，我們將有很多機會，無論是在旋翼機上還是在戰鬥中，繼續發展這項業務。

And it's a business we don't talk a lot about. It may be a bit overshadowed by Commercial. But that's not the way we're operating today. And I think as we get ready for the Vernova spin, there'll be more time and attention paid externally on Defense and I think the team is very much looking forward to that. We're doing a lot of good work, plenty of opportunities, but we need to execute better. And again, we need our suppliers hand-in-hand in that effort.

這是一個我們不常談論的業務。它可能有點被商業所掩蓋。但這不是我們今天的運作方式。我認為，當我們為 Vernova 旋轉做好準備時，外部將會有更多的時間和注意力投入到防守上，我認為團隊非常期待這一點。我們做了很多出色的工作，有很多機會，但我們需要更好地執行。再次強調，我們需要供應商攜手努力。

Our next question comes from the line of Jeffrey Sprague with Vertical Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Jeffrey Sprague 和 Vertical Research Partners 的電話。

Could we just talk a little bit more about cash flow and kind of what you're thinking into next year? The spear to my question, Larry or Rahul, is we're still dealing with kind of a sizable difference between actual free cash flow and adjusted free cash flow. I think some of this is warranty and other things working through the system. Can you just elaborate a little bit on the factors in the disconnect? And can we get to maybe a normalization of these factors as we think about the independent companies in 2024?

我們可以多談談現金流以及您明年的想法嗎？拉里或拉胡爾，我的問題的矛頭是，我們仍在處理實際自由現金流和調整後自由現金流之間的巨大差異。我認為其中一些是保固和透過系統工作的其他事情。能否詳細說明一下造成脫節的因素？當我們考慮 2024 年的獨立公司時，我們能否讓這些因素正常化？

Yes. Let me kind of -- let's just spend maybe a minute on our free cash flow here. So first, as you look at our cash for the year, it's a really good year. I mean we're going to generate $4.9-ish billion of free cash at the midpoint, up from $3.1 billion that we did last year. And a lot of that is coming from earnings growth. Clearly, that is a huge contributor and that is helped by kind of lower interest payments.

是的。讓我說一下——讓我們花一點時間來討論一下我們的自由現金流。首先，當你看看我們今年的現金時，你會發現這是非常好的一年。我的意思是，我們將在中期產生約 49 億美元的自由現金，高於去年的 31 億美元。其中很大一部分來自獲利成長。顯然，這是一個巨大的貢獻者，並且得益於較低的利息支付。

But if you look at our working capital performance continues to be really strong this year. I mean, you've seen our year-to-date numbers. You've seen even as you project that into the fourth quarter. We are doing an exceptional job managing our days sales outstanding. So despite our top line revenue growth, we are still expecting that overall, our AR balance will be neutral, Jeff.

但如果你看看我們今年的營運資本表現仍然非常強勁。我的意思是，您已經看到了我們今年迄今為止的數字。即使你將其預測到第四季度，你也已經看到了。我們在管理銷售業績方面做得非常出色。因此，儘管我們的收入有所增長，但我們仍然預計總體而言，我們的 AR 平衡將是中性的，傑夫。

And the reason I say that is just kind of shows the opportunities that the business has for continued improvement. And then progress payments, contract assets continues to be a positive as well given the strong growth environment.

我這麼說的原因只是顯示企業擁有持續改善的機會。鑑於強勁的成長環境，進度付款、合約資產也持續保持積極勢頭。

The part there I want to anchor on is a little bit on ground inventory. Given the supply chain challenges that we are having, inventory, as you will see from our Q, was up substantially in the quarter. Now we're expecting it to come down slightly as we get into the fourth quarter, but it will still be a substantial inventory build by the end of the year. So -- and as we look forward to '24 and '25, that should start getting liquidated with improved supply chain performance.

我想重點關注的部分是地面庫存。鑑於我們面臨的供應鏈挑戰，正如您從我們的季度報告中看到的那樣，庫存在本季大幅增加。現在，我們預計進入第四季後庫存會略有下降，但到年底庫存仍將大量增加。因此，當我們期待「24」和「25」時，隨著供應鏈績效的改善，這應該會開始得到清算。

So that is where -- I would say that is what gives us the confidence that this will be a continued good cash flow story. Now as you look, overall, we'll be at about 160%-plus of free cash flow to net income. Part of that is amortization. But even if you take amortization out, it's still 130% free cash flow performance. So it's still very, very strong.

所以這就是——我想說這讓我們有信心這將是一個持續良好的現金流故事。現在，如您所見，總體而言，我們的自由現金流佔淨利潤的比例約為 160% 以上。其中一部分是攤銷。但即使去掉攤銷，它仍然是 130% 的自由現金流表現。所以它仍然非常非常強大。

Now on your question on between -- I think most of that adjustments below the line are related to spin-related adjustments. I don't think there's anything -- and insurance and spin-related restructuring costs and expenses. So -- and some of that will obviously continue as we go into '24 and maybe even a little bit into '25. But after that, at least a spin and the restructuring cost should add. And the insurance is not a big number.

現在關於你的問題——我認為線下的大部分調整都與旋轉相關的調整有關。我不認為有什麼——以及保險和與分拆相關的重組成本和費用。所以，當我們進入 24 年，甚至可能進入 25 年時，其中一些顯然會繼續下去。但在那之後，至少應該增加剝離和重組成本。而且保險金額也不大。

Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Obin with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的安德魯‧奧賓 (Andrew Obin)。

It's -- I didn't hear. I assume it's me. Okay. So just a question on Onshore Wind capacity. How close are you to the maximum capacity in Onshore Wind? Right, I think in the past, we've shipped over 1,000 turbines in the quarter, but there have been capacity reductions. Just trying to understand how close you are to maximum throughput at this point?

這是——我沒聽到。我想是我吧好的。這只是關於陸域風電容量的問題。您離陸上風電的最大容量還有多遠？是的，我想過去我們這個季度已經發貨了1000多台渦輪機，但是產能有所減少。只是想了解此時您距離最大吞吐量有多近？

With respect to Onshore, Andrew?

關於陸上，安德魯？

Yes.

是的。

Yes. I would say that when you look at the backlog that we have and with what's in the sales pipeline, I wouldn't say that we are sold out, but there is a limit to what we're going to be able to deliver in '24 and '25. And I think our customers are mindful of that. It's a little bit why we have seen, I think, the level of activity thus far this year with an eye to not only deliveries this year, but '24 and '25.

是的。我想說的是，當你看看我們的積壓訂單以及銷售渠道中的產品時，我不會說我們已經售罄，但我們能夠交付的產品是有限的。24 和 25。我認為我們的客戶注意到了這一點。我認為，這就是為什麼我們看到今年迄今為止的活動水平，不僅著眼於今年的交付，而且著眼於 24 和 25 年的交付。

I'm always hesitant, Andrew, to talk about capacity, particularly in a business like this as truly being fixed because there's so much underlying process improvement that can unleash capacity. It's not strictly a function of, if you will, fixed capital investments that we've made. Not that we would be averse to that, but I think we wanted to really pare down the overall cost structure, not strictly an effort focused on manufacturing capacity and really put ourselves in position to grow off a lower cost base, do that in ways that will allow delivery to be an advantage and then gradually, smartly add any fixed capital that we might need.

安德魯，我總是猶豫是否要談論容量，特別是在像這樣真正被修復的企業中，因為有太多的基礎流程改進可以釋放容量。如果你願意的話，這嚴格來說並不是我們所做的固定資本投資的函數。並不是說我們會反對這一點，但我認為我們希望真正削減整體成本結構，而不是嚴格專注於製造能力，並真正使自己處於在較低成本基礎上增長的位置，以以下方式做到這一點：將使交付成為一種優勢，然後逐漸巧妙地增加我們可能需要的任何固定資本。

If you look at the underlying performance that the Onshore Wind team has delivered here in the third quarter, will deliver in the fourth quarter, I think it's poised to deliver in '24 and beyond, you see all that coming home, which we're pleased to see, of course.

如果你看看陸上風電團隊在第三季度在這裡交付的基本業績，並將在第四季度交付，我認為它準備在 24 年及以後交付，你會看到所有這些都回來了，我們正在當然很高興看到。

Our next question comes from the line of Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的喬·里奇。

And so just sorry for the multipart question. But I guess just on the timing of the spin, early 2Q or the beginning of 2Q, so is it right to expect it ahead of 1Q earnings?

對於這個由多部分組成的問題，我深表歉意。但我想只是在旋轉的時間上，第二季度初或第二季度初，所以在第一季收益之前預期它是否正確？

And then secondly, on the profitability dynamics in both Onshore and Offshore Wind. I'd love to hear any more details around the type of profitability you expect to exit on Onshore Wind this year?

其次，關於陸上和離岸風電的獲利動態。我很想聽聽您預計今年將退出陸上風電的盈利類型的更多詳細資訊？

And then also with Offshore, it seems like you're shipping more this year and so that seems to be a good sign that you're getting through more of your unprofitable backlog. Any comments around that would be helpful as well.

然後，在離岸業務方面，今年你們的發貨量似乎有所增加，這似乎是一個好跡象，表明你們正在處理更多無利可圖的積壓訂單。任何有關此的評論也會有所幫助。

Sure. I think to your first question, Joe, the answer is pretty simple. Yes, we should be in a position to bring forward Vernova ahead of our typical earnings announcement time frame in early in the second quarter.

當然。喬，我認為對於你的第一個問題，答案非常簡單。是的，我們應該能夠在第二季初的典型獲利公佈時間之前提前推出 Vernova。

I would say with respect to Onshore Wind, again, a lot of improvement. It will be a profitable second half, not unfortunately a profitable full year. We've got a shot at doing that at Grid, as I mentioned earlier. But I think as we look at '24 in Onshore, we should be in the low single-digit range with obviously the intention as we go through the budget cycle here in November and December to see if we can put together a credible plan to do better.

我想說的是，關於陸域風電，有很多改進。下半年將是獲利的，但不幸的是全年不會獲利。正如我之前提到的，我們有機會在 Grid 做到這一點。但我認為，當我們審視24 年陸上業務時，我們應該處於較低的個位數範圍，顯然我們的意圖是，當我們在11 月和12 月經歷預算週期時，看看我們是否可以製定一個可靠的計劃來實現這一目標。更好的。

But that's the way I would think about it just given the back half momentum that we'll have entering into next year.

但考慮到我們明年將進入的後半段勢頭，我就是這麼想的。

And Joe, just to kind of complete that picture on Renewables total, we -- as Larry said, we expect at least Onshore to be at least kind of low single-digit margins. Grid would be kind of mid-single-digit range. Offshore, as Larry said in his prepared remarks, it kind of -- we expect kind of similar levels of losses next year.

喬，為了完成再生能源總量的情況，我們——正如拉里所說，我們預計至少陸上利潤率至少會達到個位數的低水平。網格將是中等個位數範圍。正如拉里在他準備好的演講中所說，離岸業務——我們預計明年的損失水平會類似。

But if you put all that together, it's still a pretty significant improvement year-over-year on both profit and then even more so on cash. So that's what we are expecting. So we won't be too far off from the framework that Scott laid out at Investor Day for the Renewables business.

但如果把所有這些放在一起，無論是利潤還是現金方面，同比仍然有相當大的改善。這就是我們所期待的。因此，我們不會偏離史考特在投資者日為再生能源業務制定的框架。

And Joe, just to make sure we're clear about the shipments, the progress that you're seeing at Dogger Bank and Vineyard. Operationally, I think we're pleased to see that. I know our customers are to see those initial installations and the initial generation of Power. However, right, that progress is what triggers the revenue recognition, which in turn carries the losses. So that's a little bit of what is operationally encouraging, but financially difficult to work our way through. So just wanted to clarify that point.

喬，只是為了確保我們清楚您在 Dogger Bank 和 Vineyard 看到的發貨情況和進展情況。從操作上來說，我認為我們很高興看到這一點。我知道我們的客戶將看到這些初始安裝和第一代 Power。然而，沒錯，這種進展觸發了收入確認，而收入確認又帶來了損失。因此，這在營運上是令人鼓舞的，但在財務上卻很難解決。所以只是想澄清這一點。

This question comes from the line of Chris Snyder with UBS.

這個問題來自瑞銀集團的克里斯·史奈德。

I'm assuming you can hear me. I wanted to follow up on Aviation margins, which continue to outpace expectations. And so I understand the mix headwinds are coming through maybe a bit more muted as the service business is doing better, but it also sounds like price/cost and just efficiency continues to work in the company's favor.

我假設你能聽到我的聲音。我想跟進航空業的利潤率，該利潤率繼續超出預期。因此，我理解，隨著服務業務做得更好，混合阻力可能會更加減弱，但聽起來價格/成本和效率繼續對公司有利。

Can you talk about some of the company-specific actions that have been boosting or helping segment margins outside of just mix? And does the current strength you're seeing change the way you think about the 20% target for 2025?

您能談談公司在混合之外提高或幫助細分利潤的一些具體行動嗎？您目前看到的強勁勢頭是否會改變您對 2025 年 20% 目標的看法？

So you're right. I mean there's lots of really good stuff happening in the company. Price is clearly a positive for us. It was a positive -- we were price/cost positive in '22 in Aerospace. We'll be price/cost positive in '23 in Aerospace. Not at the -- not only at the overall company level, but even at Commercial and at Defense. So that -- the business is doing really well on kind of getting the price increases and managing the inflation.

所以你是對的。我的意思是，公司裡發生了很多非常好的事情。價格顯然對我們有利。這是積極的——我們在 22 年航空航天領域的價格/成本是積極的。我們將在 23 年航空航太領域實現積極的價格/成本比。不僅在整個公司層面，甚至在商業和國防領域也是如此。因此，該業務在提高價格和控制通貨膨脹方面做得非常好。

We've made progress on productivity as well. So that's the other part. Not to the extent that we would have liked, but it is progress. And we are encouraged by even the underlying progress on productivity that is currently sitting in our inventory numbers that will roll through next year. So there is positive momentum on productivity.

我們在生產力方面也取得了進展。這就是另一部分。雖然沒有達到我們希望的程度，但這是進步。我們對生產力方面取得的根本性進步感到鼓舞，這些進步目前體現在我們的庫存數據中，並將在明年持續成長。因此，生產力呈現出正面的動力。

So all that is a positive. And as you think about kind of the 20% margin number for 2025, obviously, that's still -- we're still at the end of 2023. So it's a couple of years away. But as you think about where we're going to end the year to 2025, we're going to end the year, call it, at $6 billion of profit. We said between, call it, between $7.6 billion and $8 billion of profit for 2025. So we still have a $1 billion-ish of profit growth every year between '24 and '25. So that's a mid-teens profit growth, which is pretty good.

所以這一切都是正面的。當你想到 2025 年 20% 的利潤率數字時，顯然，我們仍處於 2023 年底。所以這還需要幾年的時間。但當你思考到 2025 年底時，我們的利潤將達到 60 億美元。我們說，到 2025 年，利潤將在 76 億美元到 80 億美元之間。因此，在 24 年到 25 年間，我們每年仍有 10 億美元左右的利潤成長。所以這是一個十幾歲左右的利潤增長，這是相當不錯的。

And the benefits of volume, price, productivity will be partially offset by this LEAP headwind that we spoke about. We start shipping 9X as well. So 9X, that's going to create some incremental pressure. And then we'll continue to invest in R&D. So that's the construct to get to the 20% margins.

我們談到的 LEAP 逆風將部分抵銷數量、價格、生產力的好處。我們也開始出貨 9X。所以9X，這將產生一些增量壓力。然後我們將繼續投資研發。這就是達到 20% 利潤率的結構。

So Larry, any final comments?

拉里，最後有什麼意見嗎？

Steve, thank you. Just to close, appreciate everybody's time today. Obviously, very strong performance so far this year. A lot of progress towards the launches of both GE Aerospace and GE Vernova. And frankly, I've never been more confident in our company's future.

史蒂夫，謝謝你。最後，感謝大家今天抽出時間。顯然，今年迄今的表現非常強勁。 GE Aerospace 和 GE Vernova 的發射取得了巨大進展。坦白說，我對我們公司的未來從未如此有信心。

We appreciate your time today and your investment and support of our company.

我們感謝您今天抽出時間以及您對我們公司的投資和支持。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝你們，女士們、先生們。今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連線。