奇異 (GE) 2023 Q1 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to General Electric's First Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) My name is Liz, and I will be your conference coordinator today. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

女士們先生們，美好的一天，歡迎來到通用電氣 2023 年第一季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）我叫 Liz，今天我將擔任您的會議協調員。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，正在錄製此會議。

I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today's conference, Steve Winoker, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please proceed.

我現在想把程序交給今天會議的主持人，投資者關係副總裁 Steve Winoker。請繼續。

Thanks, Liz. Welcome to GE's first quarter 2023 earnings call. I'm joined by Chairman and CEO, Larry Culp; and CFO, Carolina Dybeck Happe. Some of the statements we're making are forward-looking and based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today.

謝謝，麗茲。歡迎來到 GE 2023 年第一季度財報電話會議。主席兼首席執行官 Larry Culp 也加入了我的行列；首席財務官 Carolina Dybeck Happe。我們所做的一些聲明是前瞻性的，是基於我們對當今世界和我們業務的最佳看法。

As described in our SEC filings and on our website, those elements may change as the world changes. As a reminder, similar to our fourth quarter call, our remarks will be brief today, reflecting the company we are now and we'll move more quickly to Q&A.

正如我們在 SEC 文件和網站上所描述的那樣，這些要素可能會隨著世界的變化而變化。提醒一下，與我們第四季度的電話會議類似，我們今天的發言將很簡短，以反映我們現在的公司，我們將更快地進行問答。

Over to Larry.

交給拉里。

Steve, thank you, and good morning, everyone. Welcome to our first quarter as a new GE, a simpler and more focused GE. We are now GE Aerospace and GE Vernova, 2 industry leaders in their own rights. We're creating significant value today, underscored by strong first quarter results, 17% organic revenue growth with all segments up, more than doubling our adjusted profit with margin expansion in all segments, resulting in $0.27 of adjusted EPS and positive free cash flow.

史蒂夫，謝謝你，大家早上好。歡迎來到我們作為新通用電氣的第一季度，一個更簡單、更專注的通用電氣。我們現在是 GE Aerospace 和 GE Vernova，這兩家是各自領域的行業領導者。我們今天創造了巨大的價值，第一季度業績強勁，所有部門的有機收入增長 17%，所有部門的利潤率都在增長，調整後的利潤增加了一倍多，調整後的每股收益為 0.27 美元，自由現金流為正。

This performance reflects robust market demand for our innovative technologies and services, and we're operating leaner and more focused businesses. Services proved again they're clearly one of our best assets, representing more than 60% of revenue, given not only the resiliency and higher margins we enjoy, but the fact they keep us in daily contact with our customers.

這一業績反映了市場對我們的創新技術和服務的強勁需求，我們正在經營更精簡、更專注的業務。服務再次證明它們顯然是我們最好的資產之一，佔收入的 60% 以上，這不僅是因為我們享有彈性和更高的利潤，而且事實上它們讓我們每天與客戶保持聯繫。

Since our investor conference in March, GE Aerospace has continued to see tremendous commercial momentum, delivering double-digit growth on the top and bottom lines. Our execution at GE Vernova is tracking well with continued signs of progress in renewable energy as Power continues to deliver. Now with GE Healthcare on its own, we're focused on launching these 2 businesses as independent investment-grade companies. Further, we also continued to simplify the balance sheet, partially monetizing our AerCap stake, closing out our Baker Hughes stake and calling half of the preferreds.

自我們 3 月份的投資者會議以來，GE Aerospace 繼續看到巨大的商業勢頭，在收入和利潤方面實現了兩位數的增長。隨著 Power 的持續交付，我們在 GE Vernova 的執行情況良好，可再生能源領域持續取得進展。現在有了 GE Healthcare，我們專注於將這兩項業務作為獨立的投資級公司推出。此外，我們還繼續簡化資產負債表，將我們的 AerCap 股份部分貨幣化，關閉我們在 Baker Hughes 的股份並贖回一半的優先股。

We also named 2 new exceptional Board members: retired U.S. Air Force General, Darren McDew and Jessica Uhl, both of whom have deep domain expertise in Aerospace and Energy, respectively. We completed consultations with our European Works Council, which allows us to build the teams with both internal and external leaders for these stand-alone businesses.

我們還任命了 2 位新的傑出董事會成員：退休的美國空軍將軍 Darren McDew 和 Jessica Uhl，他們分別在航空航天和能源領域擁有深厚的專業知識。我們完成了與歐洲工作委員會的磋商，這使我們能夠與內部和外部領導者一起為這些獨立業務組建團隊。

We're also advancing the internal rewiring to separate the businesses. This includes working through our legal entities, tax, organizational and capital structures as well as standing up boards for both businesses. The rest assured job 1 remains our operating performance, which we'll dive into in more detail momentarily.

我們還在推進內部重新佈線以分離業務。這包括通過我們的法人實體、稅收、組織和資本結構以及為兩家公司設立董事會。放心的工作 1 仍然是我們的經營業績，我們稍後將深入探討。

So a big thank you to our outstanding teams, particularly our separation management office that is leading these efforts as well as the vast majority of our global employee base that's focused daily on serving customers. These businesses are ready to deliver and realize our full potential as independent industry leaders.

非常感謝我們出色的團隊，特別是領導這些工作的離職管理辦公室，以及我們每天專注於為客戶服務的絕大多數全球員工。這些企業已準備好交付並發揮我們作為獨立行業領導者的全部潛力。

With that, Carolina will take you through our results.

這樣，Carolina 將帶您了解我們的結果。

Thanks, Larry. Turning to Slide 3, which I'll speak to on an organic basis. In the first quarter, top line momentum was strong with robust market demand and execution driving growth. Orders increased 26%, all segments up. Equipment was up significantly led by renewables, almost doubling its order intake. Notably, grid booked 2 large HVDC orders with Tenet and U.S. Onshore Wind is seeing the initial positive impact of the Inflation Reduction Act, including higher margin orders. Services was up 12%, largely driven by commercial aerospace activity.

謝謝，拉里。轉到幻燈片 3，我將有機地討論它。第一季度，收入勢頭強勁，市場需求強勁，執行力推動增長。訂單增加了 26%，所有部門都增加了。設備在可再生能源的帶動下大幅增長，訂單量幾乎翻了一番。值得注意的是，電網與 Tenet 和美國陸上風電公司簽訂了 2 份大型 HVDC 訂單，看到了《降低通脹法案》的初步積極影響，包括更高利潤的訂單。服務業增長 12%，主要受商業航空航天活動的推動。

Revenue also increased double digits with strength in both equipment and services. Aerospace was a significant driver with substantial LEAP engine deliveries and shop visit growth, and we're encouraged by equipment growth in other areas such as Gas Power and Grid.

由於設備和服務的實力，收入也增長了兩位數。航空航天是 LEAP 發動機交付量和商店訪問量增長的重要推動力，我們對天然氣發電和電網等其他領域的設備增長感到鼓舞。

Adjusted margin expanded 330 basis points, driven by services volume, price outpacing inflation and productivity. Together, doubling operating profit and debt reduction drove substantial accretion to adjusted EPS, up $0.36 year-over-year.

受服務量、價格漲幅超過通脹和生產力的推動，調整後的利潤率擴大了 330 個基點。營業利潤翻番和債務減少共同推動調整後每股收益大幅增長，同比增長 0.36 美元。

Free cash flow was $102 million, positive. Importantly, it was up $1.3 billion year-over-year with half of the improvement from earnings and half from working capital. From a flow perspective, this was driven by higher earnings and some AD&A timing, partially offset by working capital as we build inventory to support second half growth.

自由現金流為 1.02 億美元，為正。重要的是，它同比增長了 13 億美元，其中一半的增長來自收益，另一半來自營運資本。從流量的角度來看，這是由更高的收益和一些 AD&A 時間推動的，部分被營運資金抵消，因為我們建立庫存以支持下半年的增長。

In addition to the strong earnings results, this was GE's first positive free cash flow in the first quarter since 2015. This achievement reflects our team's intense focus in sealing disciplined processes to enhance linearity and eliminate waste while driving operational efficiency and improved earnings and cash flow.

除了強勁的盈利結果外，這是 GE 自 2015 年以來第一季度的首個正自由現金流。這一成就反映了我們的團隊高度重視嚴格遵守紀律的流程，以提高線性度並消除浪費，同時提高運營效率並改善收益和現金流.

A moment on corporate. Adjusted costs were down over 10% year-over-year, primarily driven by ongoing cost-out efforts and interest income as well as improvement in digital. For the year, we expect costs of around $600 million, half the amount in 2021 and in line with reduced corporate needs and progress setting up stand-alone cost structures.

關於企業的時刻。調整後的成本同比下降超過 10%，這主要是由於持續的成本支出和利息收入以及數字技術的改進。今年，我們預計成本約為 6 億美元，是 2021 年的一半，這與減少的企業需求和建立獨立成本結構的進展相一致。

At insurance, as previously discussed, we now have adopted the industry-wide accounting standard for LDTI and we implemented first principles models. As of the end of 2022, the impact from this transition was $2.7 billion reduction in GAAP equity. These changes, including first principles, did not impact cash funding. We also funded the expected $1.8 billion during the quarter, in line with the permitted practice.

如前所述，在保險業，我們現在採用了 LDTI 的全行業會計標準，並實施了第一原則模型。截至 2022 年底，這一轉變的影響是 GAAP 權益減少 27 億美元。這些變化，包括第一原則，並不影響現金融資。我們還按照允許的做法在本季度資助了預期的 18 億美元。

Overall, we're pleased with the first quarter, delivering significant growth, margin, EPS and cash improvement. Based on this performance and market demand, we are raising the low end of our full year adjusted EPS range by $0.10 and our free cash flow range by $200 million. So we now expect adjusted EPS of $1.70 to $2 and free cash flow of $3.6 billion to $4.2 billion.

總體而言，我們對第一季度感到滿意，實現了顯著的增長、利潤率、每股收益和現金改善。基於這一業績和市場需求，我們將全年調整後每股收益範圍的下限提高 0.10 美元，將自由現金流範圍提高 2 億美元。因此，我們現在預計調整後的每股收益為 1.70 美元至 2 美元，自由現金流為 36 億美元至 42 億美元。

And on that positive note, back to you, Larry, to discuss the businesses.

在積極的方面，回到你，拉里，討論業務。

Carolina, thank you. Starting with GE Aerospace. As many of you heard from us just over a month ago at our customer technical education center in Cincinnati, a premier franchise with leading value propositions for propulsion and systems in both Commercial and Defense. With our highly differentiated technology and service portfolio, we're redefining flight for today, tomorrow and the future. Today, we're focused on partnering with air framers, airlines and lessors to drive stability and predictability as they ramp. For tomorrow, we're focused on roaming and optimizing our next generation of engines.

卡羅萊納，謝謝你。從 GE 航空航天開始。就在一個多月前，你們中的許多人在我們位於辛辛那提的客戶技術教育中心聽到了我們的消息，這是一個主要的特許經營權，在商業和國防領域的推進和系統方面具有領先的價值主張。憑藉我們高度差異化的技術和服務組合，我們正在為今天、明天和未來重新定義飛行。今天，我們專注於與飛機製造商、航空公司和租賃商合作，以在它們增加時提高穩定性和可預測性。對於明天，我們將專注於漫遊和優化我們的下一代引擎。

Our recent proof point, our record-breaking deal with Air India with 800 LEAP 40 GEnx and 20 GE9X engines plus services. And for the future, we're developing next-generation technologies like RISE, hybrid electric and sustainable aviation fuels to better serve our customers and deliver growth.

我們最近的證明是我們與印度航空公司達成的破紀錄交易，提供 800 台 LEAP 40 GEnx 和 20 台 GE9X 發動機以及服務。對於未來，我們正在開發下一代技術，如 RISE、混合動力電動和可持續航空燃料，以更好地服務於我們的客戶並實現增長。

I'm extremely proud of how our team continues to make progress on these priorities, running the business with lean principles in a more decentralized manner with intensity, discipline and focus day in and day out.

我為我們的團隊如何繼續在這些優先事項上取得進展感到非常自豪，以更加分散的方式以精益原則經營業務，日復一日地加強、紀律和專注。

Looking at the market, the recovery has strengthened as the world is eager to travel, GE and CFM departures continue to improve, currently at 97% of '19 levels, and we still expect to be back to '19 levels later this year.

放眼市場，隨著世界渴望旅行，GE 和 CFM 的離港率繼續改善，目前處於 19 年水平的 97%，我們仍預計今年晚些時候會回到 19 年的水平。

To that end, we delivered strong results driven by this commercial momentum. Orders were up 14%. Revenue was up 25%, driven primarily by services and commercial engine deliveries. Profit improved up over 40%. And margins expanded due to services volume, pricing and productivity, which together more than offset negative mix, inflation and investments.

為此，我們在這種商業勢頭的推動下取得了強勁的業績。訂單增長了 14%。收入增長了 25%，主要受服務和商業發動機交付的推動。利潤提高了 40% 以上。利潤率因服務量、定價和生產力而擴大，它們共同抵消了負面組合、通貨膨脹和投資。

Commercial Engines and Services performance was particularly robust with 35% revenue growth. Commercial Engines revenue grew over 30% with LEAP deliveries up over 50%. To support our customers, LEAP spare engine deliveries will be more first half loaded, but we expect this to normalize in the second half, remaining roughly in line with 2022 for the full year.

商業引擎和服務的表現尤其強勁，收入增長了 35%。商用發動機收入增長超過 30%，LEAP 交付量增長超過 50%。為了支持我們的客戶，LEAP 備用發動機交付量將在上半年增加，但我們預計這將在下半年正常化，全年與 2022 年大致保持一致。

Services revenue also grew over 30%. Internal shop visits increased over 30% and external spare parts was up over 20%. Favorable pricing and customer mix also contributed to the margins. We recently welcomed 2 new members of our LEAP MRO network, StandardAero and ST Engineering. Our external network for LEAP is now up to 5 partners, creating a highly competitive environment that drives a lower cost of ownership for our airline customers.

服務收入也增長了 30% 以上。內部車間訪問量增加了 30% 以上，外部備件增加了 20% 以上。有利的定價和客戶組合也有助於提高利潤率。我們最近迎來了 LEAP MRO 網絡的 2 個新成員，StandardAero 和 ST Engineering。我們的 LEAP 外部網絡現在最多有 5 個合作夥伴，創造了一個高度競爭的環境，為我們的航空公司客戶降低了擁有成本。

Today, third-party MROs licensed by CFM service about 70% of the CFM56 shop visits. So this is a model that customers know well and trust today.

如今，CFM 授權的第三方 MRO 服務約 70% 的 CFM56 車間訪問量。因此，這是當今客戶熟知和信任的模型。

In the supply chain, we saw areas of improvement with material inputs and LEAP shipments improving sequentially, thanks largely to our lean efforts. However, output continued to be impacted by material availability and supplier challenges, particularly in Defense, where revenue declined 2%.

在供應鏈中，我們看到材料輸入和 LEAP 出貨量依次改善的領域，這在很大程度上要歸功於我們的精益努力。然而，產量繼續受到材料可用性和供應商挑戰的影響，尤其是在國防領域，其收入下降了 2%。

Lean is critical to improve process capabilities and increase material availability from our suppliers. In both Commercial and Defense, we use rigorous daily management with problem-solving across product lines, supply chain and engineering teams. This helped drive Commercial Engine deliveries to be up 40% year-over-year and recovery of roughly 70 engines in Defense, the first week of April. Predictability, stability and improved delivery remain key for us going forward.

精益對於提高流程能力和增加供應商的材料可用性至關重要。在商業和國防領域，我們採用嚴格的日常管理，跨產品線、供應鍊和工程團隊解決問題。這有助於推動商用發動機交付量同比增長 40%，並在 4 月的第一周恢復了大約 70 台發動機。可預測性、穩定性和改進的交付仍然是我們前進的關鍵。

We're also constantly innovating for the future. Our XA100 is the only engine tested and ready to ensure the U.S. maintains air superiority this decade, especially critical as geopolitical threats grow. XA100 provides 30% more range, 20% greater acceleration and twice the thermal management capacity. This engine is the most effective -- the most cost-effective option to meet the needs of the U.S. war fighter for decades to come.

我們也在為未來不斷創新。我們的 XA100 是唯一經過測試並準備好確保美國在這十年內保持空中優勢的發動機，尤其是在地緣政治威脅增加的情況下。 XA100 的航程增加了 30%，加速度增加了 20%，熱管理能力增加了一倍。這種發動機是最有效——最具成本效益的選擇，可以滿足未來幾十年美國作戰人員的需求。

Looking ahead, despite the encouraging start, as we shared in March, over the next few quarters, we'll face headwinds from tougher comps and the mix impact from equipment growth, inflation and investments. However, we continue to expect to deliver significant profit dollar growth and higher free cash flow in 2023, primarily from strong volume across engines and services, combined with better pricing and productivity. We'll share more details on our progress and our future as a stand-alone industry leader at the Paris Air Show in June. I look forward to seeing many of you there.

展望未來，儘管開局令人鼓舞，正如我們在 3 月份所分享的那樣，但在接下來的幾個季度中，我們將面臨來自更嚴格的競爭以及設備增長、通貨膨脹和投資的混合影響的不利因素。然而，我們繼續預計 2023 年將實現顯著的美元利潤增長和更高的自由現金流，這主要來自引擎和服務的強勁銷量，以及更好的定價和生產力。我們將在 6 月的巴黎航展上分享更多關於我們作為獨立行業領導者的進展和未來的細節。我期待在那裡見到你們中的許多人。

Turning to Vernova. This business is already demonstrating how well it's positioned to support our customers through the energy transition. We're seeing favorable secular growth tailwinds underscored by IRA momentum and the need for sustainable, affordable, resilient and secure energy.

轉向維爾諾瓦。該業務已經展示了它在能源轉型中為我們的客戶提供支持的能力。我們看到 IRA 勢頭和對可持續、負擔得起、有彈性和安全能源的需求凸顯了有利的長期增長順風。

This quarter at renewables, we saw continued signs of progress. We've talked about the IRA as a game changer, providing greater near-term and long-term demand certainty. We're already seeing this play out with significantly better visibility into our commercial pipeline over the next several years compared to this time just a year ago.

本季度在可再生能源方面，我們看到了持續進步的跡象。我們已經將 IRA 視為遊戲規則的改變者，它提供了更大的近期和長期需求確定性。與一年前的這個時候相比，我們已經看到這種情況在未來幾年對我們的商業管道有更好的可見性。

Orders nearly doubled, led by Grid with strong growth across the businesses, including 2 large HVDC orders needed to connect new renewable sources to the Grid. Onshore equipment orders also increased with North America growing more than threefold. Revenues were up mid-single digits organically, driven primarily by Grid and Offshore Wind.

在 Grid 的帶動下，訂單幾乎翻了一番，業務增長強勁，包括將新的可再生能源連接到 Grid 所需的 2 個大型 HVDC 訂單。陸上設備訂單也有所增加，北美增長超過三倍。主要受電網和海上風電的推動，收入有機增長到中等個位數。

Looking at services, excluding repower, core services grew again on both orders and revenue. We saw both sequential and year-over-year profit improvement driven by price and cost reduction benefits primarily at Onshore and Grid. To break it down by business, in Grid, we're clearly making progress. All 3 businesses saw strong top line growth with continued productivity gains in the first quarter, and we remain on track to achieve modest profitability for the full year.

看看服務，不包括動力，核心服務的訂單和收入再次增長。我們看到主要在陸上和電網的價格和成本降低收益推動了環比和同比利潤的改善。按業務細分，在 Grid 中，我們顯然正在取得進展。所有 3 項業務在第一季度都實現了強勁的收入增長，生產力持續提高，我們仍有望在全年實現適度盈利。

At Onshore, we're executing the strategy we shared with you in March. Focusing on select markets with a simplified range of product offerings, this in turn is yielding better margins in our backlog for longer-term profitable growth. And this quarter, we saw both sequential and year-over-year margin improvement, mostly in U.S. equipment. And we continue to drive pricing with positive price/cost.

在 Onshore，我們正在執行 3 月份與您分享的戰略。專注於提供簡化產品範圍的特定市場，這反過來又在我們的積壓訂單中產生了更好的利潤率，以實現長期盈利增長。本季度，我們看到連續和同比利潤率都有所提高，主要是在美國設備方面。我們繼續以積極的價格/成本推動定價。

Our proactive fleet enhancement program is now roughly 20% complete. At the same time, we're still rationalizing our Onshore cost structure. As mentioned last quarter, headcount is down roughly 20% relative to last summer with more to do. And this has already begun to generate some savings.

我們主動的機隊增強計劃現在大約完成了 20%。與此同時，我們仍在合理化陸上成本結構。正如上個季度所提到的，與去年夏天相比，員工人數減少了大約 20%，還有更多工作要做。這已經開始產生一些節省。

In Offshore, we're managing our existing Haliade-X backlog. This quarter, revenue more than doubled as we produced more nacelles. As discussed in March, we still expect Offshore to remain a near-term challenge as we execute our initial projects and improve our learning curve, both in terms of product cost and operational capabilities. Scott and the team are laser-focused on managing project costs and disbursements while improving our underwriting processes.

在 Offshore，我們正在管理現有的 Haliade-X 待辦事項。本季度，由於我們生產了更多的機艙，收入翻了一番多。正如 3 月份所討論的那樣，我們仍然預計離岸業務在我們執行初始項目並改善我們的學習曲線時仍將是近期的挑戰，無論是在產品成本還是運營能力方面。 Scott 和團隊專注於管理項目成本和支出，同時改進我們的承保流程。

Looking ahead for renewables overall, we're expecting a second quarter loss roughly in line with the first quarter. We continue to expect significant second half improvement year-over-year in Onshore Wind, which will be partially offset by Offshore Wind.

展望整體可再生能源，我們預計第二季度的虧損與第一季度大致持平。我們繼續預計陸上風電的下半年同比會有顯著改善，這將被海上風電部分抵消。

As we said in March, we see an inflection to profitability from renewables in '24 from higher U.S. volume, price and continued cost out.

正如我們在 3 月份所說，我們看到 24 年可再生能源的盈利能力因美國銷量、價格和持續成本的增加而發生變化。

Moving to Power. We delivered another quarter of solid growth, led by Gas Power, including both equipment and services. This business is a long-term cash generator and will help fund future growth at GE Vernova.

走向權力。在天然氣發電的帶動下，我們又實現了四分之一的穩健增長，包括設備和服務。這項業務是一個長期的現金來源，將有助於為 GE Vernova 的未來增長提供資金。

Starting with the market, GE Gas Turbine utilization grew low single digits despite a milder winter in many markets, providing stable baseload power to customers transitioning from coal to gas or needing new power for electrification. We also continue to invest for the long term, including decarbonization pathways that will provide customers with cleaner, more reliable power.

從市場開始，儘管許多市場的冬季較為溫和，但 GE 燃氣輪機的利用率仍以低個位數增長，為從煤炭向天然氣過渡或需要新電力進行電氣化的客戶提供穩定的基本負荷電力。我們還繼續進行長期投資，包括為客戶提供更清潔、更可靠的電力的脫碳途徑。

Focusing on the quarter, Power delivered solid top line growth with services up 8% organically, driven by Gas Power heavy-duty gas turbine transactional services and aero derivatives. Equipment revenue grew double digits as we shipped 5 more HDGT units compared to last year. This included 2 incremental HA units adding to our large gas installed base, which will serve us for years to come.

關注本季度，在 Gas Power 重型燃氣輪機交易服務和航空衍生品的推動下，Power 實現了穩健的收入增長，服務有機增長 8%。與去年相比，我們的 HDGT 設備出貨量增加了 5 台，因此設備收入增長了兩位數。這包括增加 2 個增加的 HA 裝置到我們的大型天然氣安裝基地，這將在未來幾年為我們服務。

Margins expanded despite a higher mix of HDGT equipment sales. We continue to manage inflationary pressures with price and continued productivity gains. Looking beyond the quarter, similar to last year, we see roughly 70% to 75% of Power's total year profit in the second half based on higher expected gas outage volume. Overall Power remains on track to deliver on its '23 commitments, including strong cash conversion.

儘管 HDGT 設備銷售組合更高，但利潤率有所擴大。我們繼續通過價格和持續的生產率提高來管理通脹壓力。展望本季度之後，與去年類似，我們預計下半年電力公司全年利潤的大約 70% 至 75% 是基於較高的預期燃氣中斷量。 Overall Power 仍有望兌現其 23 世紀的承諾，包括強勁的現金轉換。

In summary, I'm encouraged by the progress we're making across GE Vernova. With the secular tailwinds, the impact of lean and our investments in the portfolio, I see tremendous value creation opportunity for years to come.

總之，我對我們在 GE Vernova 取得的進展感到鼓舞。憑藉長期的順風、精益的影響以及我們對投資組合的投資，我看到了未來幾年巨大的價值創造機會。

So to wrap up on Slide 7. The GE team is off to an encouraging start in '23 and our progress continues. Our missions at both GE Aerospace and GE Vernova matter to the world, and we're crystal clear on how we plan to deliver on them.

因此，總結幻燈片 7。GE 團隊在 23 年取得了令人鼓舞的開端，我們的進步仍在繼續。我們在 GE Aerospace 和 GE Vernova 的使命對世界很重要，我們非常清楚我們計劃如何實現這些目標。

GE Aerospace has a bold vision to define the future of flight. With nearly 3 billion people flying with our engines under wing last year, this exceptional franchise is growing amidst the pronounced industry ramp.

GE Aerospace 有一個大膽的願景來定義飛行的未來。去年有將近 30 億人使用我們的發動機飛行，這個非凡的特許經營權在明顯的行業增長中不斷發展。

At GE Vernova, as the world looks to accelerate efforts to decarbonize and electrify, we're uniquely positioned with our solutions, which provide 30% of the world's electricity today. Our renewables business is showing continued signs of progress with clearly more to do, while Power continues to deliver solid growth. Simply put, we're improving how we operate, how we innovate and how we deliver for our customers. I couldn't be more excited about the future and where we're going.

在 GE Vernova，隨著世界尋求加速脫碳和電氣化的努力，我們憑藉我們的解決方案處於獨特的位置，這些解決方案提供了當今世界 30% 的電力。我們的可再生能源業務顯示出持續的進步跡象，顯然還有更多工作要做，而電力繼續實現穩健增長。簡而言之，我們正在改進我們的運營方式、創新方式以及為客戶提供服務的方式。我對未來和我們要去的地方感到無比興奮。

So with that, let's go to Q&A. Steve?

因此，讓我們進入問答環節。史蒂夫？

Thanks, Larry. Before we open the line, I'd ask everyone in the queue to consider your fellow analysts and ask 1 question so we can get to as many people as possible. Liz, please open the line.

謝謝，拉里。在我們開通線路之前，我會請隊列中的每個人考慮一下您的分析師同事並提出 1 個問題，以便我們可以接觸到盡可能多的人。 lz，請打開線路。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Robert Spingarn with Melius Research.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Robert Spingarn。

As you might expect, I'm going to start with an Aerospace question, if that's okay. I want to ask, with the LEAP Engine, as the program matures and the time on wing improves and the installed base grows, can you eventually get LEAP aftermarket margins to the CFM56 level?

如您所料，如果可以的話，我將從一個航空航天問題開始。我想問，有了 LEAP 引擎，隨著項目的成熟、在翼時間的延長和安裝基數的增長，您最終能否將 LEAP 售後市場的利潤率提高到 CFM56 的水平？

Rob, as you know, the 2 -- and we talked about this, I think, at some length at CTech back in March, the 2 are very different places in the life cycle, right? But as I think Mohamed shared with you, there are a whole host of things that we have learned along the CFM56 journey that we have every intention of porting back into the LEAP.

Rob，如你所知，2 - 我認為我們在 3 月份在 CTech 討論過這個問題，2 在生命週期中是非常不同的地方，對吧？但正如我認為 Mohamed 與您分享的那樣，我們在 CFM56 的旅程中學到了很多東西，我們完全有意將它們移植回 LEAP。

We still need to get LEAP both from a new unit and from a services perspective to profitability. That is a mid-decade task for us here in the near term. I think we're making good progress in that regard. But there's no reason we shouldn't have that level of expectation or that you should have that level of expectation over time with the LEAP. There's a lot that goes into that. We mentioned in the prepared remarks the expansion of our third-party partner network with StandardAero and ST Engineering coming on board. That's another step in the right direction to set this business up to have a similar profile over time.

我們仍然需要從新部門和服務角度獲得 LEAP 以實現盈利。這是我們近期的中期任務。我認為我們在這方面取得了很好的進展。但是我們沒有理由不應該有那樣的期望，或者你應該隨著時間的推移對 LEAP 有那樣的期望。這涉及很多內容。我們在準備好的評論中提到了我們的第三方合作夥伴網絡的擴展，包括 StandardAero 和 ST Engineering。這是朝著正確方向邁出的又一步，使該業務隨著時間的推移具有相似的形象。

Would you -- Larry, would you say when you think about productivity versus volume versus initiatives of pricing, et cetera, when we think about that margin expansion, how would you bucket those?

你會 - 拉里，你會說當你考慮生產力與數量與定價舉措等時，當我們考慮利潤率擴張時，你會如何處理這些？

Well, Rob, I think they all matter, right? Again, we're in the midst of an incredible ramp. There are a whole host of things that will benefit us from that volume. That said, that as we improve performance, as we improve on wing periods, that will certainly accrue to the margin profile. But there's a whole lot of things just directly with respect to the cost structure, be it a new engine or aftermarket services and parts that will also be something that I'm sure for the next 10 or 15 years, we'll be looking to drive improvements in year in, year out. So it's really all of the above.

好吧，羅布，我認為它們都很重要，對吧？再一次，我們正處於一個令人難以置信的斜坡之中。有很多東西將使我們從該卷中受益。也就是說，隨著我們提高性能，隨著我們改進機翼週期，這肯定會增加利潤率。但是有很多直接與成本結構有關的事情，無論是新引擎還是售後服務和零件，我相信在未來 10 年或 15 年內，我們都會期待年復一年地推動改進。所以它真的是以上所有。

Our next question comes from Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Nigel Coe。

So yes. It's definitely a simple company after show. So I thought the narrowing in the losses from 4Q to 1Q of renewables was very encouraging on the lower sales and volumes. So it just seems that you suggest there is an underlying improvement in the cost base, et cetera, and the backlog quality. Maybe just talk about, number one, is that correct? And secondly, as we go into second quarter, can we expect to see another narrowing of losses Q-over-Q?

所以是的。演出結束後，這絕對是一家簡單的公司。因此，我認為可再生能源從第四季度到第一季度的虧損收窄對銷量和銷量的下降非常鼓舞人心。因此，您似乎只是在暗示成本基礎等方面以及積壓質量方面存在潛在的改善。也許只是談論，第一，對嗎？其次，隨著我們進入第二季度，我們能否預期看到 Q-over-Q 的損失再次縮小？

And then maybe just touch on the order strengths. I think there's $5 billion of orders. I know there's a large HVDC order in there. But maybe just talk about what you've seen in Onshore and whether you've got better visibility on that Onshore ramp in the second half of the year?

然後也許只是觸及訂單優勢。我認為有 50 億美元的訂單。我知道那裡有一個大的 HVDC 訂單。但也許只是談談您在陸上看到的情況，以及今年下半年您在陸上坡道上的能見度是否提高了？

Nigel, thank you. I think that we take a great deal of conviction about the path forward just given the last couple of quarters and, frankly, the lack of surprises, right? You've seen that. We've seen that. Neither of us have been happy about that.

奈傑爾，謝謝你。鑑於過去幾個季度，我認為我們對前進的道路充滿信心，坦率地說，沒有驚喜，對吧？你已經看到了。我們已經看到了。我們倆對此都不滿意。

But credit to the team, I think we've gotten to a place where despite the losses, there are fewer surprises and we're seeing less of that. The drivers are just what you're highlighting here, both in terms of higher quality top line as we have improved the pricing and the selectivity of the orders that we're taking on and in turn, the adjustments that we've made to the cost structure. We talked about the headcount reductions, but that is really only part of what we've done from a cost and from a productivity perspective.

但感謝團隊，我認為我們已經到達了一個地方，儘管有損失，但驚喜更少，我們看到的也更少。驅動因素正是你在這裡強調的，無論是在更高質量的頂線方面，因為我們已經改進了我們正在接受的訂單的定價和選擇性，反過來，我們對成本結構。我們談到了裁員，但這實際上只是我們從成本和生產力角度所做的工作的一部分。

The quality improvements help and will continue to help over time. So I think in Onshore Wind, I would certainly expect to see again a slight improvement in the second quarter, but it will be in line with what we've seen here in the first. It's really a second half story, and everything that we see today continues to give us the confidence that we'll see an improvement in Onshore in the second half and we should be profitable.

隨著時間的推移，質量改進會有所幫助並將繼續提供幫助。所以我認為在陸上風電方面，我當然希望在第二季度再次看到輕微的改善，但這將與我們在第一季度看到的情況一致。這真的是下半年的故事，我們今天看到的一切繼續讓我們相信，我們將在下半年看到陸上業務有所改善，我們應該會盈利。

We'll see, I think, some challenges as we look at the segment overall, given some of the ramp dynamics we've talked about in Offshore. But between what we'll see in the second half with Onshore, the improvements at Grid, again, this will be a year of profitability at Grid. I think we're feeling good about the setup as we exit '23, getting ready for '24.

我認為，考慮到我們在 Offshore 中談到的一些斜坡動力，我們會看到一些挑戰，因為我們從整體上看這個細分市場。但是，在我們將在下半年看到的 Onshore 和 Grid 的改進之間，這將再次成為 Grid 盈利的一年。我認為我們在退出 23 年時對設置感覺良好，為 24 年做好準備。

Carolina, anything you'd add there?

Carolina，你有什麼要補充的嗎？

Yes. So therefore, the second quarter, we are expecting similar losses to the first quarter. And Larry touched on -- or he talked about the Onshore. We also continue to see sort of progress in Grid come through. And then we know that Offshore Wind is sort of an investment, and we have the learning curve there where we expect to sort of move down that curve with sort of cost out and better project execution.

是的。因此，我們預計第二季度將出現與第一季度類似的虧損。拉里談到了——或者說他談到了岸上。我們還繼續看到 Grid 取得了一些進展。然後我們知道海上風能是一種投資，我們在那裡有學習曲線，我們希望通過某種成本和更好的項目執行來沿著這條曲線向下移動。

So that's why in '23, we do see a headwind from profit and cash. But overall, moving towards a stronger second half in 2023 on profit and then getting positive in 2024.

所以這就是為什麼在 23 年，我們確實看到了利潤和現金的逆風。但總的來說，2023 年下半年利潤將走強，然後在 2024 年轉正。

Our next question comes from the line of Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.

我們的下一個問題來自 Sheila Kahyaoglu 與 Jefferies 的合作。

On Q1, it seems like a strong start to aerospace margins with 19% versus the implied guidance of 18% margin, and this was despite LEAP up 53% year-over-year. Any detail on where exactly you saw net price and productivity come through the most? And you didn't mention this in the script, Larry. But any on-wing reliability issues and how much does that impact profitability?

在第一季度，這似乎是航空航天利潤率 19% 的強勁開局，而隱含的指導利潤率為 18%，儘管 LEAP 同比增長了 53%。關於淨價和生產率在哪些方面最受重視的細節？你沒有在劇本中提到這一點，拉里。但是任何機翼可靠性問題以及這對盈利能力的影響有多大？

Sheila, you're spot on. We're very pleased with the margin that we posted here in the first quarter. But I think we continue to try to temper expectations with respect to margin expansion this year as we go forward sequentially.

希拉，你是正確的。我們對第一季度在這裡公佈的利潤率感到非常滿意。但我認為，隨著我們按順序前進，我們將繼續努力降低對今年利潤率擴張的預期。

A lot of things really broke our way in the first quarter. I think we still expect to have a robust dollar profit growth year, right, with the guide that we have of $5.3 billion to $5.7 billion. We should be up at the midpoint, 15% year-over-year in dollars. And there were a number of things that broke our way.

第一季度有很多事情真的讓我們大吃一驚。我認為我們仍然預計今年美元利潤將強勁增長，正確的，我們有 53 億美元至 57 億美元的指導。我們應該處於中點，按美元計算同比增長 15%。有很多事情妨礙了我們。

We didn't see as much mix pressure as we thought we would see in the first quarter. The strength in services certainly helped. But that mix pressure, both within equipment and between equipment and services will, I think, evolve through the course of the year, where we will see equipment grow in all likelihood at a rate greater than services, particularly given the LEAP shipments. And we know that inflation will continue to be a headwind for us.

我們沒有看到我們在第一季度看到的那麼大的混合壓力。服務的實力當然有所幫助。但我認為，設備內部以及設備與服務之間的混合壓力將在今年不斷演變，屆時我們很可能會看到設備的增長速度超過服務，特別是考慮到 LEAP 的出貨量。我們知道通貨膨脹將繼續對我們不利。

We're encouraged by some of the moderation that we see in certain commodities, but particularly in aerospace, given the fact that we've got so much in inventory, there's '22 inflation that we still need to work through the P&L, which will play out through the course of the year. That said, I mean, we feel very good about the margin structure in this business, as we shared with you in March. But all in, I think we'll see moderation off of this 19% level in the first quarter. But net-net, still a very good profitability growth year for GE Aerospace.

我們對某些商品的一些緩和感到鼓舞，但特別是在航空航天領域，鑑於我們有如此多的庫存，我們仍然需要通過損益表應對 22 年的通貨膨脹，這將在這一年中發揮作用。也就是說，我的意思是，正如我們在 3 月份與您分享的那樣，我們對這項業務的利潤率結構感覺非常好。但總而言之，我認為我們會在第一季度看到這個 19% 的水平有所放緩。但對於 GE Aerospace 來說，淨利潤仍然是一個非常好的盈利增長年。

Our next question comes from Julian Mitchell with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Julian Mitchell。

Maybe just my question would be around free cash flow. Should we expect sort of second quarter to be around breakeven-ish and common with prior years? And then sort of 2 specific drivers I was curious about. One was that $500 million AD&A headwind. I saw it was a source in Q1. How do you see that playing out the balance of the year?

也許我的問題只是關於自由現金流。我們是否應該期望第二季度達到盈虧平衡並與往年一樣？然後是我很好奇的 2 個特定驅動程序。其中之一是 5 億美元的 AD&A 逆風。我看到它是第一季度的來源。您如何看待今年的平衡？

And just sort of testing your conviction level in that wind down payments, $3 billion to $4 billion free cash tailwind you talked about back at Q1. Just sort of how you see that and the AD&A playing out from here over the balance of the year and what that Q2 free cash might be?

只是在某種程度上測試你對結束付款的信念水平，你在第一季度談到的 30 億至 40 億美元的自由現金順風。只是您如何看待這一點，AD＆A 在今年餘下時間從這裡開始發揮作用，以及第二季度的自由現金可能是多少？

Julian, let me take that. So if we look at the second quarter, basically, we are expecting to build on the strong first quarter, so see the similar dynamics coming through in the second quarter. And that starts with our strong orders leading to high single-digit growth.

朱利安，讓我接受。因此，如果我們看一下第二季度，基本上，我們預計會在強勁的第一季度的基礎上再接再厲，所以看到第二季度出現類似的動態。這始於我們帶來高個位數增長的強勁訂單。

If we look at our profit, EPS, we expect it to be $0.40 to $0.50. And again, sequential volume growth, especially from aerospace strength, but also the gas seasonal outages. We would expect price to continue to outpace inflation, continue to see productivity come through. But we do expect some mixed pressure that Larry was mentioning from the big ramps in LEAP and Haliade-X. So if you look at it little bit business by business, so for aerospace, that's why we would expect the margin rate to be lower sequentially and contract because of that high equipment growth.

如果我們看一下我們的利潤，每股收益，我們預計它在 0.40 美元到 0.50 美元之間。再一次，連續的銷量增長，尤其是來自航空航天實力，還有天然氣季節性停運。我們預計價格將繼續超過通脹，繼續看到生產力的提高。但我們確實預計 Larry 提到的 LEAP 和 Haliade-X 的大坡道會帶來一些混合壓力。因此，如果你逐個業務地看待它，那麼對於航空航天，這就是為什麼我們預計利潤率會連續下降並且由於設備的高增長而收縮。

For renewables, as I mentioned, we expect losses to be similar in the second quarter to the first. And for Power, we expect revenue and profit to be slightly down year-over-year, really with the second half loaded outage and aero derivatives shipments. And that brings me then to the free cash flow.

對於可再生能源，正如我所提到的，我們預計第二季度的損失將與第一季度相似。對於 Power，我們預計收入和利潤將同比略有下降，這實際上是由於下半年的停運和航空衍生品的出貨量。這讓我想到了自由現金流。

So we expect free cash flow to be around breakeven. And it's a combination of the earnings growth and some positive working capital, but then offset by the AD&A and higher tax payments. So if you look at it sort of first half this year compared to first half last year, it's about $1 billion of improvement in the first half.

因此，我們預計自由現金流將達到收支平衡。這是收益增長和一些積極的營運資本的結合，但隨後被 AD&A 和更高的稅收所抵消。因此，如果您將今年上半年與去年上半年進行比較，上半年的改善幅度約為 10 億美元。

And you asked sort of sequentially quarter-by-quarter. I would say, from the free cash flow, you also have to remember the size of revenue in Q4 that we collected in Q1. And now in Q2, we will be collecting on a lower revenue number from the first quarter. So that's why there's a bit of pressure there.

你問的是按季度順序排列的。我想說，從自由現金流來看，你還必須記住我們在第一季度收集的第四季度的收入規模。現在在第二季度，我們將收集比第一季度更低的收入。所以這就是為什麼那裡有一點壓力。

You also asked about AD&A. So AD&A was slightly positive in the first quarter. But we expect that to be negative $0.5 billion for the full year, so basically shifting to the right.

您還詢問了 AD&A。所以 AD&A 在第一季度略有積極。但我們預計全年將為負 5 億美元，因此基本上向右移動。

And when it comes to wind, you asked about the $3 billion to $4 billion of orders. I would say it's still early in the year. And we have strong relationships with our customers, but those are large and complex orders. And exactly when they convert to orders, that can shift a bit through the quarters.

談到風能，你問了 30 億到 40 億美元的訂單。我想說現在還早。我們與客戶有著牢固的關係，但這些都是大而復雜的訂單。確切地說，當他們轉換為訂單時，這可能會在幾個季度內發生一些變化。

Julian, I would just add that with respect to the orders and win in North America, I think we feel as optimistic as we did back in March in frequent contact with the administration. They're well along in the work that they're doing to release the final guidance. We expect to see that this quarter. And I think we said in March, every week matters here. So the sooner businesses, customers have certainty, the better. But we're quite optimistic.

朱利安，我只想補充一點，關於在北美的訂單和勝利，我認為我們與 3 月份經常與政府接觸時一樣樂觀。他們為發布最終指南所做的工作進展順利。我們希望在本季度看到這一點。我想我們在三月份說過，每週都很重要。所以企業越早，客戶有把握越好。但我們相當樂觀。

Our next question comes from Seth Seifman with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Seth Seifman。

So wanted to follow up on the commercial aftermarket and kind of the strength in the first quarter and the moderation that's implied through the remainder of the year. It seems like channels have been running in kind of the 3.5 to 3.7 range the past 3 quarters. Seasonally, we probably see an uptick in the second quarter, which would imply another quarter of very healthy growth kind of above the guidance range for aftermarket for the year. And so is there anything that really gives you pause about the second half of the year? And how are you thinking about where -- what the upside might be to that aftermarket forecast?

所以想跟進商業售後市場和第一季度的實力以及今年剩餘時間所暗示的溫和。在過去的 3 個季度中，渠道似乎一直在 3.5 到 3.7 的範圍內運行。從季節性上講，我們可能會在第二季度看到增長，這意味著又一個季度的增長非常健康，高於今年售後市場的指導範圍。那麼，有什麼事情真的會讓你在下半年停下來嗎？您如何考慮售後市場預測的優勢在哪裡？

Well, I think you're right, Seth, in terms of just the strength in the momentum that we see here, right? I mean services for a full year we think will be up high teens to 20%. So it's just -- it couldn't be more robust. And that's pretty well balanced, both in terms of shop visits, spares and the like.

好吧，我認為你是對的，賽斯，就我們在這裡看到的勢頭而言，對嗎？我的意思是我們認為全年的服務將增加 20%。所以它只是 - 它不能更強大。這在商店訪問、備件等方面都非常平衡。

And I'd say that we see that kind of broadly across the portfolio from a geographic perspective as well. We're not unmindful that there is some discussion around how long the flying public will indeed fly at this pace. We'll see how that plays out. But you've heard from a number of the airlines already this earnings cycle where the CEOs, I think, are uniformly bullish. Not only here, but in Europe. If any of that edge came off, as you know, we're not necessarily tied to ticket prices or load factors. We're tied most directly to departures. That's a good structural aspect of our business.

我想說的是，我們也從地理角度看到了整個投資組合中的這種情況。我們並非沒有註意到，圍繞飛行公眾將以這種速度飛行多長時間進行了一些討論。我們將看看結果如何。但是你已經從許多航空公司那裡聽說，在這個盈利週期中，我認為首席執行官們一致看好。不僅在這裡，而且在歐洲。如您所知，如果任何優勢消失，我們不一定與票價或載客率掛鉤。我們最直接地與出發聯繫在一起。這是我們業務的一個很好的結構方面。

But we do know we get into some tougher comps as we move into the second half of this year. So we still expect to have a robust top line, and that will bring with it the margin and cash flows that we've talked about already. But net-net, we feel very good about the prospects.

但我們確實知道，隨著我們進入今年下半年，我們會進入一些更艱難的競爭。因此，我們仍然希望擁有強勁的收入，這將帶來我們已經討論過的利潤率和現金流。但是淨淨，我們對前景感覺非常好。

Just on the margin, again, very pleased with the first quarter performance, but we do know that we're going to see more mix pressure both given the equipment growth versus services and within equipment given the LEAP ramp in addition to some of the lagging inflationary pressures and the investments that we are and we want to make in the business. But net-net, this is going to be a very good year for GE Aerospace from a profit perspective with the dollars at the midpoint, up 15% year-over-year.

就利潤率而言，再次對第一季度的表現非常滿意，但我們確實知道，考慮到設備增長與服務以及考慮到 LEAP 的增長以及一些滯後的設備內部，我們將看到更多的混合壓力通貨膨脹壓力以及我們正在和希望在業務中進行的投資。但淨淨值，從利潤的角度來看，這對 GE Aerospace 來說將是非常好的一年，美元處於中點，同比增長 15%。

Our next question comes from Andrew Kaplowitz with Citigroup.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗集團的 Andrew Kaplowitz。

Could you just give us an update, Larry, on what milestones you need to see to make sure GE is on track for Vernova separation in early '24? Obviously, you saw strong growth in Onshore orders. How much does better U.S. onshore utilization help you as you move forward?

拉里，你能給我們更新一下你需要看到哪些里程碑，以確保通用電氣在 24 年初的 Vernova 分離中走上正軌嗎？顯然，您看到在岸訂單的強勁增長。在您前進的過程中，更好的美國陸上利用率對您有多大幫助？

And you mentioned similar profitability in Q2 in renewables versus Q1. What's your line of sight toward that decent step-up in earnings past Q2? And maybe give us a little more color on your focus on improving product quality and the cost-out program you have at this point.

你提到第二季度可再生能源的盈利能力與第一季度相似。您對第二季度後收益的可觀增長有何看法？也許給我們更多關於您專注於提高產品質量和您目前擁有的成本支出計劃的顏色。

Andy, I think you've really outlined the answer to your question in many ways, right? We know it won't be about the balance sheet. We know it won't be the internal preparation that will pace when we spin GE Vernova. It will really be a function of business performance.

安迪，我認為你已經從很多方面概述了你問題的答案，對吧？我們知道這與資產負債表無關。我們知道，當我們剝離 GE Vernova 時，不會是內部準備工作。這實際上是業務績效的函數。

And again, I think we're really encouraged by what we've seen the last couple of quarters, not only in terms of the sequential progress, but the team's ability to deliver on those commitments. We know we've got a lot of work to do here in the second quarter, in the second half to continue the progress in Onshore Wind. But between the prospect of better volumes, again, better pricing, combining with those volumes and all of the work that we've done to improve the cost structure, I think sets us up for that positive year in '24.

再一次，我認為我們對過去幾個季度所看到的情況感到非常鼓舞，不僅在連續進展方面，而且在團隊兌現這些承諾的能力方面。我們知道我們在第二季度、下半年還有很多工作要做，以繼續推進陸上風電。但是，在更好的銷量前景、更好的定價、結合這些銷量以及我們為改善成本結構所做的所有工作之間，我認為我們為 24 年的積極年度做好了準備。

Really excited about what we're seeing at Grid. We've talked about the big orders out of Europe a couple of times here. Go at that mask the underlying improvements, both in terms of price and costs broadly across the Grid portfolio. They'll be modestly profitable this year. And those are really the 2 big businesses within renewables. And that sets us up to work through some of these growing pains in Offshore to position Vernova to go in '24.

對我們在 Grid 上看到的一切感到非常興奮。我們已經在這裡討論過幾次來自歐洲的大訂單。去掩蓋潛在的改進，無論是在整個 Grid 產品組合的價格和成本方面。他們今年將適度盈利。這些確實是可再生能源領域的兩大業務。這讓我們能夠克服 Offshore 中的一些成長中的痛苦，使 Vernova 在 24 年取得成功。

You asked about the quality efforts at Onshore Wind. The list continues to be fundamentally a static list. I think we knocked off 4 or 5 of those items this quarter. We're about 20% of the way through that body of work. We'll probably get to roughly half of that by the end of the year. We've got some more challenging, more time consuming issues to knock off the list later this year.

您詢問了 Onshore Wind 的質量工作。該列表從根本上說仍然是一個靜態列表。我認為我們本季度取消了其中的 4 或 5 個項目。我們大約完成了這部分工作的 20%。到今年年底，我們可能會達到大約一半。今年晚些時候，我們有一些更具挑戰性、更耗時的問題需要解決。

But again, I think the team is working to plan and doing all we can to help customers in that regard. And as we help customers, we help ourselves. So again, I think we are on track. A lot of work to do. But I think we're optimistic that, that work will be done and GE Vernova will be a stand-alone independent investment-grade industry leader in the energy transition sometime early next year.

但同樣，我認為團隊正在努力計劃並儘我們所能在這方面幫助客戶。當我們幫助客戶時，我們也在幫助自己。所以，我認為我們已經步入正軌。有很多工作要做。但我認為我們樂觀地認為，這項工作將會完成，GE Vernova 將在明年初的某個時候成為能源轉型中獨立的投資級行業領導者。

Our next question comes from Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC Capital Markets 的 Deane Dray。

I want to stick with renewables, if we can. And could you give some specifics on how selectivity is working today? I mean you had some -- especially with regard to what was booked and just how that reflects disciplined underwriting and so forth?

如果可以的話，我想堅持使用可再生能源。您能否具體說明當今選擇性的運作方式？我的意思是你有一些 - 特別是關於預訂的內容以及這如何反映紀律承保等等？

Deane, I would highlight 2 forms of selectivity. One is what you might think of as simply geographic. Credit to Scott and the team for being willing to say no or yes, largely on constructive terms, the opportunities outside of our core markets in the U.S. and in Europe.

Deane，我要強調兩種形式的選擇性。一個是你可能認為簡單的地理。感謝 Scott 和團隊願意以建設性的方式拒絕或同意我們在美國和歐洲的核心市場之外的機會。

I think one of the challenges early on, and it's not unique to GE Vernova. It's not unique to any evolving industry. We, at times, I think, went after business with the best of intentions and didn't get paid for the risks that we were taking, signed up to probably do things that in hindsight we shouldn't have.

我認為這是早期的挑戰之一，它並不是 GE Vernova 獨有的。它不是任何不斷發展的行業所獨有的。我認為，有時我們懷著最好的意圖開展業務，卻沒有為我們所承擔的風險獲得報酬，我們簽約可能會做一些事後看來我們不應該做的事情。

So what you see or what you here's referred to with our selectivity effort is just to be more discriminating, more targeted in the geographic markets, let alone the applications that we'll pursue. That's one.

所以你所看到的或你在這裡提到的我們的選擇性努力只是為了更具歧視性，更有針對性地針對地理市場，更不用說我們將追求的應用程序了。那是一個。

I'd say, secondly, as the market shifts here rapidly from abundance to scarcity, we really have a finite amount of capacity in the short to medium term to sell. And I think here again, the credit to the team we're really just being as smart as we can about making sure that we're fully and fairly compensated for the technology that we bring and the solutions that we offer.

我要說的是，其次，隨著這裡的市場從豐富迅速轉變為稀缺，我們在中短期內的銷售能力確實有限。我再次想到，我們真的盡可能聰明地確保我們對我們帶來的技術和我們提供的解決方案得到充分和公平的補償，這對團隊來說是值得稱讚的。

And it's the 2 of those combined that you're beginning to see help the margin profile in Onshore Wind that will play out even more so as the IRA kicks in and we see more volume come through the P&L, let alone the change to the cost structure that I mentioned earlier. That's -- I hope that gives you a full answer, but that's how we're going about this day in, day out, opportunity by opportunity.

您開始看到其中的兩個組合有助於陸上風電的利潤率狀況，隨著 IRA 的啟動，我們會看到更多的交易量來自損益表，更不用說成本的變化了我之前提到的結構。那是——我希望這能給你一個完整的答案，但這就是我們今天日復一日、一個接一個地進行的方式。

And we're also following up very clearly on not only what the margins are in the P&L, but also in orders and even in tech select and a much sort of stricter strike zones for that.

我們也在非常清楚地跟進，不僅是損益表中的利潤率，還有訂單，甚至是技術選擇，以及更嚴格的打擊區。

Our next question comes from Josh Pokrzywinski with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Josh Pokrzywinski。

I just want to follow up on that last question on pricing in particular. I guess if you look at order dollars that you printed versus gigawatt orders or unit orders, seems like a healthy gap in there. I would imagine most of that is price, although maybe some mix as well.

我只想跟進最後一個關於定價的問題。我想如果你看看你打印的訂單美元與千兆瓦訂單或單位訂單，這似乎是一個健康的差距。我想其中大部分是價格，儘管也可能有些混合。

At the same time, I guess, we're not fully clarified from the IRS on some of this rule-making language. Is price today sort of at the run rate you would expect? Or are there other dynamics that maybe emerge here with more clarity about sources of production and domicile and some of those elements?

與此同時，我想，美國國稅局還沒有完全澄清一些規則制定語言。今天的價格是否符合您的預期？還是這裡可能會出現其他動態，使生產來源和住所以及其中一些要素更加清晰？

Well, I think that we will continue to see this market evolve. Again, the White House, the administration has not issued the final guidance. They are well along. We've had a number of opportunities, as others have, to share our views both on the substance and the timing of the key provisions.

好吧，我認為我們將繼續看到這個市場的發展。同樣，白宮政府尚未發布最終指導意見。他們相處得很好。與其他人一樣，我們有很多機會就關鍵條款的實質內容和時間安排分享我們的觀點。

I think we'll see that play out here this quarter. And in turn, customers will react to that, right? They have acted in anticipation. But when the rules are set and the guidelines are clear being around the domestic content rules, the manufacturing credits and the like, I think you'll see things pick up.

我想我們會在本季度看到這一點。反過來，客戶會對此做出反應，對嗎？他們在預期中採取了行動。但是當規則制定好並且圍繞國內內容規則、製造信貸等的指導方針明確時，我認為你會看到事情好轉。

What I was talking about a moment ago with Deane with respect to how we think about selectivity and price, we'll continue to evolve as well. So I don't -- in the spirit of Kaizen, it continues to improve. And I wouldn't say that we're somehow at a peak. We'll continue to make sure we push our cost structure as best we can and are fairly compensated for the value that we create. That pretty much is the setup here and in turn, why we think we have the path not only to profitability, but far better margins than you've seen in this business the last couple of years.

我剛才和 Deane 談到我們如何考慮選擇性和價格，我們也將繼續發展。所以我不——本著 Kaizen 的精神，它會繼續改進。我不會說我們正處於高峰期。我們將繼續確保我們盡可能地推動我們的成本結構，並為我們創造的價值提供公平的補償。這幾乎就是這裡的設置，反過來，為什麼我們認為我們不僅擁有盈利之路，而且利潤率遠高於過去幾年你在該業務中看到的利潤率。

Yes. And if you think about it, we're talking about sort of tech selected orders. It will take, well, about 1 year before you see it in the P&L. So of course, that delta between price and cost in the P&L will take a little longer to come through because of the cycle.

是的。如果你仔細想想，我們正在談論某種技術選擇訂單。好吧，大約需要 1 年的時間才能在損益表中看到它。因此，當然，由於週期的原因，損益表中價格和成本之間的差異將需要更長的時間才能實現。

Our next question comes from Chris Snyder with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Chris Snyder。

I wanted to follow up on some of the prior comments on aviation top line. So the segment grew another like mid-20% organic in Q1. The guide implies about low teens by my math for the rest of the year. And I certainly appreciate the comps get tougher, but I was hoping you could provide some color on how we should expect the cadence of that organic growth deceleration over the rest of the year.

我想跟進之前關於航空頂線的一些評論。因此，該細分市場在第一季度又實現了 20% 左右的有機增長。根據我的數學計算，該指南暗示了今年餘下時間的低青少年。我當然很欣賞 comps 變得更加艱難，但我希望你能提供一些顏色，說明我們應該如何預期今年餘下時間有機增長減速的節奏。

And then longer term, I would appreciate any views or color on how far the segment is from seeing organic growth compress back to the mid- to high single-digit rate called out at the Investor Day for the long term.

然後從長遠來看，對於該細分市場從看到有機增長壓縮到長期投資者日所呼籲的中高個位數增長率還有多遠，我將不勝感激。

Well, again, I think as we look at the full year here, we would expect services to continue to grow. We think services will still be up high teens to 20% all in for the year, but we'll see equipment grow more rapidly, primarily on the back of the LEAP ramp and Defense shipments improving, right?

好吧，我再次認為，當我們在這裡看全年時，我們預計服務將繼續增長。我們認為今年服務仍將增長 20%，但我們會看到設備增長更快，主要是在 LEAP 增長和國防出貨量改善的支持下，對吧？

We were down 2% in the first quarter. We still expect, once we clear a number of these delivery issues, that we should be up high single digits in Defense. And that's really what I think you'll see through the course of the year.

我們在第一季度下降了 2%。我們仍然期望，一旦我們解決了這些交付問題，我們應該在國防方面取得高個位數的增長。這真的是我認為你會在這一年中看到的。

Keep in mind, we've got the tougher comps in services coming in, in the back half, particularly given the nature of the sequential ramp here. But all in, we've got a lot to do to deliver on those numbers, and those numbers don't assume that we fully clear our backlog or past due backlogs, either.

請記住，我們在後半部分獲得了更嚴格的服務補償，特別是考慮到這裡連續上升的性質。但總而言之，要實現這些數字，我們還有很多工作要做，而且這些數字也不假設我們完全清除了積壓或逾期未交的積壓。

So I wouldn't want to commit to that upside. But certainly, we're working as hard as we can within our own facilities and with our suppliers to deliver as much as we possibly can. In terms of when demand normalizes, that's probably a question for another day. Again, given the OE ramp, given the services ramp back -- on the back of what we're seeing broadly with respect to departures, we're optimistic about not only this year, but the near term.

所以我不想承諾那個好處。但可以肯定的是，我們正在我們自己的設施內盡我們所能地努力工作，並與我們的供應商一起盡可能多地交付。就需求何時正常化而言，這可能是另一天的問題。同樣，考慮到 OE 的增長，考慮到服務的回升——在我們廣泛看到的離職情況的背後，我們不僅對今年而且對近期都持樂觀態度。

I think we're on the verge of no longer talking about where we are, vis-a-vis, 2019. That will be exciting, right? We can get to a point where we're just talking about year-over-year growth.

我認為我們即將不再談論我們在 2019 年所處的位置。這將是令人興奮的，對吧？我們可以達到我們只談論同比增長的地步。

Yes. And I would just add, Chris, just to your specific cadence numbers, just look at the comps, third quarter, fourth quarter steps down pretty considerably, particularly in the fourth quarter just based on that comp math, and we can talk about it later.

是的。克里斯，我只想補充一下你的具體節奏數字，看看比賽，第三節，第四節下降相當大，特別是在第四節，僅基於比賽數學，我們可以稍後再討論.

Our next question comes from Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的 Joe Ritchie。

So just going back to renewables for a second. The orders, the wind turbine orders were up 75%. I know up until now, I know Scott's been pretty reluctant to book any Offshore projects. I'm curious whether this includes any new offshore units.

所以暫時回到可再生能源。訂單中，風力渦輪機訂單增長了 75%。我知道直到現在，我知道斯科特一直不太願意預訂任何離岸項目。我很好奇這是否包括任何新的離岸單位。

And then secondly, on Onshore Wind. Just given the bookings so far this year, I'm curious like what's the expectation for Onshore Wind profitability exiting the year? Can you turn a profit in Onshore Wind exiting 2023?

其次，陸上風能。鑑於今年到目前為止的預訂量，我很好奇對今年陸上風電盈利能力的預期是什麼？到 2023 年，您能否從陸上風電中獲利？

So if we start with your question on orders. So Offshore Wind, we didn't have orders in the quarter as expected, and that was exactly what Scott was talking to.

因此，如果我們從您關於訂單的問題開始。所以海上風電，我們在本季度沒有像預期的那樣收到訂單，而這正是斯科特所說的。

When it comes to Onshore Wind, we saw really strong bookings, and we mentioned that in the beginning of the call. So it was great to see tripling of Onshore Wind orders compared to last year. And that's mainly North America equipment apps, so basically IRA driven and we saw good progress coming through from that.

談到陸上風能，我們看到了非常強勁的預訂，我們在電話會議開始時就提到了這一點。因此，很高興看到陸上風電訂單與去年相比增加了兩倍。這主要是北美設備應用程序，所以基本上是 IRA 驅動的，我們看到了從中取得的良好進展。

So the area is the game changer we said it would be, and we're starting to see it come through. So if you combine then the growth on the top line as well as the self-help actions that Larry mentioned, where we expect to be done with about half of those when we exit the year. And put on top of that, the pricing work that we're doing as well as continuing cost out, we do expect to see the year for Onshore Wind when it comes to profitability or in this case, a reduction of losses to be a positive step through the quarters.

所以該地區是我們所說的遊戲規則改變者，我們開始看到它的實現。因此，如果你結合收入的增長以及拉里提到的自助行動，我們預計在今年結束時將完成其中大約一半的行動。最重要的是，我們正在進行的定價工作以及持續的成本支出，我們確實希望看到陸上風能在盈利方面的一年，或者在這種情況下，損失的減少將是積極的穿過宿舍。

I would say, especially in the second half because in the first half, we still have rather low U.S. orders that we are delivering on. So the mix is a bit heavy in the first half. So good improvement in the second half. And that is also the trajectory that will take us to significantly better results and low single-digit plus in 2024 when it comes to profit.

我會說，尤其是在下半年，因為在上半年，我們交付的美國訂單仍然很少。所以上半年的混合有點重。下半場進步很大。這也是使我們在 2024 年的利潤方面取得顯著更好的結果和較低的個位數增長的軌跡。

Joe, thanks. Liz, we have time for -- let's make time for 1 last question. Thanks.

喬，謝謝。 Liz，我們有時間——讓我們抽出時間來回答最後一個問題。謝謝。

Our next question comes from the line of Gautam Khanna with Cowen.

我們的下一個問題來自 Gautam Khanna 與 Cowen 的對話。

I was wondering if you could elaborate on supply chain and aerospace, what the pacing items still are? And if you have any metrics around pace of improvement? We've seen in Q1 versus maybe Q4 or late last year anyway, second half of last year.

我想知道你是否可以詳細說明供應鍊和航空航天，起搏項目仍然是什麼？如果您有關於改進速度的任何指標？我們已經在第一季度看到了與第四季度或去年年底的對比，無論如何，去年下半年。

Well, again, I think this is a daily, weekly effort where we're encouraged by some of our leading indicators, I'd point to LEAP probably. That's the platform that garners the largest portion of our attention today, right, with deliveries up 50%, sequentially up 10%. And that's probably just as important a number as we think about how we deliver 1,700 units this year as we shared in March.

好吧，我認為這是每天、每週的努力，我們受到一些領先指標的鼓舞，我可能會指出 LEAP。這是今天引起我們最大關注的平台，對，交付量增長了 50%，環比增長了 10%。正如我們在 3 月份分享的那樣，這可能與我們今年如何交付 1,700 台一樣重要。

We are making progress. I think if you look at supplier on-time delivery as one example, if you look at material inputs being another, just our ability to hit our targets on a weekly basis internally, I see signs of progress, right? I sit with Russell and his team. We go through this on a regular basis. I'm encouraged by the intensity of the daily management that we're bringing not only to our own operations, but with our suppliers.

我們正在取得進展。我認為，如果您將供應商準時交貨作為一個例子，如果您將材料輸入作為另一個例子，只要我們每週在內部達到目標的能力，我就會看到進步的跡象，對嗎？我和拉塞爾和他的團隊坐在一起。我們定期檢查這個。我對日常管理的強度感到鼓舞，我們不僅在我們自己的運營中，而且在我們的供應商中。

I had an opportunity to walk a number of our own shops and do the same with some of our suppliers in the first quarter and to see how we're having that impact. But it's still challenging. I don't want to, in any way, suggest otherwise. But I'm encouraged by what we're doing. I think we've learned a lot in the first quarter from our efforts in and around LEAP that we are porting to our other product lines. That will be particularly important in Defense.

我有機會在第一季度走訪了我們自己的一些商店，並對我們的一些供應商進行了同樣的檢查，看看我們是如何產生這種影響的。但這仍然具有挑戰性。我不想以任何方式提出其他建議。但我對我們正在做的事情感到鼓舞。我認為我們在第一季度從我們在 LEAP 及其周圍的努力中學到了很多東西，我們正在移植到我們的其他產品線。這在國防領域尤為重要。

You saw that we cleared some of what we left behind in March and early April. But that said, there's a lot around that daily management intensity and discipline we've seen in LEAP that we need to make sure as part of our Defense business and those core facilities through the rest of this year to deliver on that high single-digit number.

你看到我們清理了一些我們在三月和四月初留下的東西。但話雖如此，我們在 LEAP 中看到的日常管理強度和紀律有很多，我們需要確保作為國防業務的一部分，以及今年餘下時間的核心設施，以實現高個位數的目標數字。

Great. Larry, any final comments?

偉大的。拉里，最後有什麼意見嗎？

Steve, that went by quickly. Well, just to close, obviously, an encouraging start to 2023. Our plans to stand up GE Aerospace and GE Vernova as 2 leading independent companies are advancing. We appreciate your time today, your interest in GE and your investment in our company. And again, we hope to see many of you at the Paris Air Show in June for our GE Aerospace presentation. Thank you.

史蒂夫，那很快就過去了。好吧，很明顯，這是一個令人鼓舞的 2023 年開端。我們支持 GE Aerospace 和 GE Vernova 作為兩家領先的獨立公司的計劃正在推進。感謝您今天抽出寶貴時間，感謝您對 GE 的關注以及對我們公司的投資。再一次，我們希望在 6 月的巴黎航展上見到你們中的許多人，觀看我們的 GE 航空航天演示。謝謝。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝你們，女士們，先生們。今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。