奇異 (GE) 2023 Q2 法說會逐字稿

Good day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the General Electric Second Quarter 2023 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) My name is Liz, and I will be your conference coordinator today. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

女士們、先生們，美好的一天，歡迎參加通用電氣 2023 年第二季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）我叫 Liz，今天我將擔任您的會議協調員。 （操作員指示）謹此提醒，本次會議正在錄製中。

I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today's conference, Steve Winoker, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please proceed.

現在我想將會議議程交給今天會議的東道主、投資者關係副總裁 Steve Winoker。請繼續。

Thanks, Liz. Welcome to GE's Second Quarter '23 Earnings Call. I'm joined by Chairman and CEO, Larry Culp; and CFO, Carolina Dybeck Happe. GE Aerospace CFO, Rahul Ghai, who will also assume the role of GE CFO in September, will join us for Q&A.

謝謝，莉茲。歡迎參加 GE '23 年第二季度財報電話會議。董事長兼首席執行官拉里·卡爾普 (Larry Culp) 也加入了我的行列。首席財務官 Carolina Dybeck Happe。 GE 航空航天首席財務官 Rahul Ghai 也將於 9 月份擔任 GE 首席財務官，他將與我們一起參加問答。

Some of the statements we're making are forward-looking and based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. As described in our SEC filings and on our website, those elements may change as the world changes.

我們所做的一些聲明具有前瞻性，並且基於我們對世界和我們今天所看到的業務的最佳看法。正如我們在 SEC 文件和網站上所述，這些要素可能會隨著世界的變化而變化。

Over to Larry.

交給拉里。

Steve, thank you, and good morning, everyone. The GE team turned in another strong quarter with double-digit growth in orders, revenue, operating profit and cash supported by services strength, robust market demand and the lean transformation within our more focused businesses. In the first half alone, earnings have now surpassed our full year 2022 results.

史蒂夫，謝謝你，大家早上好。在服務實力、強勁的市場需求以及我們更專注的業務中的精益轉型的支持下，GE 團隊迎來了又一個強勁的季度，訂單、收入、營業利潤和現金均實現兩位數增長。僅上半年，盈利就超過了我們 2022 年全年的業績。

GE Aerospace is growing rapidly as we execute on the ramp for our customers, and GE Vernova is strengthening increased spin with record orders and improving profitability at Renewable Energy and continued margin expansion at Power.

隨著我們為客戶提供服務，GE Aerospace 正在快速增長，GE Vernova 正在通過創紀錄的訂單來加強旋轉，提高可再生能源的盈利能力，並持續擴大電力的利潤率。

Based largely on year-to-date performance and expectations for continued strength in the second half, we're raising full year guidance today. Big picture, there's a clear sense of progress, passion and purpose within our businesses. This was particularly evident to me when I was in France last month. At the Paris Air Show, GE Aerospace shared our bold vision to define flight for today, tomorrow and the future during meetings with customers, suppliers and investors. CFM's RISE demonstrator program drew a lot of excitement as it aims to reduce fuel consumption and CO2 emissions by at least 20% compared to today's most efficient engines.

主要基於今年迄今的業績以及對下半年持續強勁的預期，我們今天上調了全年指引。從大局來看，我們的企業有一種明顯的進步感、激情和目標。上個月我在法國時，這一點對我來說尤其明顯。在巴黎航展上，GE 航空航天公司在與客戶、供應商和投資者的會議上分享了我們定義今天、明天和未來飛行的大膽願景。 CFM 的 RISE 演示計劃引起了廣泛關注，因為它的目標是與當今最高效的發動機相比，將燃油消耗和二氧化碳排放量減少至少 20%。

I also saw our GE Vernova team for our Onshore Wind and Grid operating reviews, where we discussed opportunities and challenges with equal candor and transparency. We focus on how we grow these businesses profitably by applying real lean at the point of impact to drive results. We're also seeing leans impact in our Offshore Wind facility in Saint-Nazaire, where the team has reduced cycle times to assemble the cell roofs by nearly 50% through multiple kaizens. So while it's still early, I'm encouraged by examples like this across GE Vernova.

我還見到了 GE Vernova 團隊進行陸上風電和電網運營審查，我們以同樣坦誠和透明的方式討論了機遇和挑戰。我們專注於如何通過在影響點應用真正的精益來推動成果，從而實現這些業務的盈利增長。我們還在聖納澤爾的海上風電設施中看到了精益的影響，該團隊通過多次改善將電池屋頂組裝週期時間縮短了近 50%。因此，雖然現在還為時過早，但 GE Vernova 的此類例子讓我深受鼓舞。

Day in, day out, we're increasingly operating as GE Aerospace and GE Vernova. Two industry leaders with large installed bases, where services represent about 70% of GE Aerospace revenue and about half of GE Vernova revenue. In addition to attractive economics, services keep us close to our customers. We understand the issues they're wrestling with and how our technology is performing, which shapes our future road maps. And with our businesses executing, we're advancing towards their launches as independent investment-grade companies next year.

日復一日，我們越來越多地以 GE Aerospace 和 GE Vernova 的名義運營。兩家行業領先者擁有龐大的安裝基礎，其中服務約佔 GE Aerospace 收入的 70%，約佔 GE Vernova 收入的一半。除了有吸引力的經濟效益之外，服務還使我們能夠貼近客戶。我們了解他們正在努力解決的問題以及我們的技術的表現如何，這塑造了我們未來的路線圖。隨著我們業務的執行，我們將在明年將其推出為獨立投資級公司。

When I reflect on how far we've come, it always starts with the team. So a big thank you to the entire global GE team. There's a lot to be excited about as we look forward to the rest of this year.

當我反思我們已經走了多遠時，總是從團隊開始。非常感謝整個 GE 全球團隊。當我們期待今年剩下的時間時，有很多值得興奮的事情。

Before I turn it over to Carolina to take you through our results in detail, let me take a moment to welcome Rahul to his additional role as GE's CFO this fall. Since joining GE Aerospace last year, he has quickly become an impactful and influential member of our GE Aerospace leadership team. And so with our final spin approaching some time in early '24 and Rahul assuming the CFO job September 1, this is Carolina's last earnings call. She has been a trusted strategic partner through significant deleveraging, improving our operating results and building the financial foundation for our 3 independent companies. We're deeply grateful for her many contributions. So on behalf of the entire GE team and for me personally, Carolina, thank you.

在我將其轉交給卡羅萊納州向您詳細介紹我們的結果之前，請允許我花一點時間歡迎拉胡爾今年秋天擔任通用電氣首席財務官。自去年加入GE航空航天以來，他迅速成為GE航空航天領導團隊中一位有影響力和影響力的成員。因此，隨著我們的最終輪轉即將在 24 年初的某個時間進行，Rahul 將於 9 月 1 日就任首席財務官一職，這是 Carolina 的最後一次財報電話會議。她通過大幅去槓桿化、改善我們的經營業績並為我們的 3 家獨立公司奠定了財務基礎，成為值得信賴的戰略合作夥伴。我們對她做出的許多貢獻深表感謝。我代表整個 GE 團隊以及我個人，Carolina，謝謝你。

Thanks, Larry. It's truly an honor to be part of GE's ambitious transformation, and I'm incredibly proud of the work this team has done to build lasting value. And a special thank you to our finest ambitious teams for their extraordinary efforts.

謝謝，拉里。能夠成為 GE 雄心勃勃的轉型的一部分確實是一種榮幸，我對這個團隊為建立持久價值所做的工作感到無比自豪。特別感謝我們最優秀、雄心勃勃的團隊所做的非凡努力。

Now turning to Slide 3, which I'll speak to on an organic basis. In the second quarter, we delivered double-digit growth across all headline metrics. Orders increased 58%, up in all segments. Equipment was up significantly led by renewables. This includes 2 large HVDC projects with Tenet and Grid and higher-margin orders at U.S. Onshore Wind.

現在轉向幻燈片 3，我將在有機的基礎上進行討論。第二季度，我們的所有主要指標均實現了兩位數的增長。所有細分市場的訂單量均增長 58%。在可再生能源的帶動下，設備大幅增長。其中包括 Tenet 和 Grid 的 2 個大型高壓直流輸電項目以及美國陸上風電公司的利潤率較高的訂單。

Aerospace also up with solid defense engine orders. Services was up 21% with growth in all segments, largely driven by commercial aerospace strength. Revenue increased 19%, with both equipment and services up. Also here, Aerospace led the way as leap engine deliveries nearly doubled and services growth. Renewables also grew, led by Onshore Wind and Grid with improved pricing.

航空航天業也獲得了固體國防發動機訂單。服務業增長了 21%，所有細分市場均實現增長，這主要是由商業航空航天實力推動的。設備和服務收入均增長 19%。同樣在這方面，航空航天也處於領先地位，飛躍發動機交付量幾乎翻了一番，服務也不斷增長。可再生能源也有所增長，其中陸上風電和電網的價格有所改善。

Adjusted margin expanded 160 basis points, driven by volume, price and productivity. This was partially offset by mix, inflation and investments. Taken together, adjusted EPS was $0.68, nearly double what we delivered last year, driven by profit growth in all segments and meaningful deleveraging. Free cash flow was $415 million, more than double what we delivered last year, driven by earnings growth.

在數量、價格和生產率的推動下，調整後利潤率擴大了 160 個基點。這被混合、通貨膨脹和投資部分抵消。總而言之，在所有部門的利潤增長和有意義的去槓桿化的推動下，調整後每股收益為 0.68 美元，幾乎是我們去年交付的兩倍。在盈利增長的推動下，自由現金流為 4.15 億美元，是我們去年交付的兩倍多。

Looking at the flows. We reduced working capital from the first quarter. Given the sequential revenue growth and preparation for large second half deliveries, receivables and inventory reduce of cash. This was more than offset by progress payments and contract assets with utilization-driven billings.

看著流量。我們從第一季度開始減少了營運資金。鑑於收入連續增長以及下半年大量交付的準備，應收賬款和庫存現金減少。這被進度付款和利用利用率驅動的賬單的合同資產所抵消。

At both GE Aerospace and GE Vernova, we're implementing weekly cash management and already seeing some linear progress. Importantly, our first half free cash flow underscores these efforts, up $1.5 billion year-over-year. This includes $0.5 billion lower working capital than in 2022.

在 GE Aerospace 和 GE Vernova，我們正在實施每週現金管理，並且已經看到了一些線性進展。重要的是，我們上半年的自由現金流量同比增加了 15 億美元，凸顯了這些努力。這包括比 2022 年減少 5 億美元的營運資金。

Now a moment on corporate. Adjusted costs were up year-over-year, primarily driven by non-repeat of 2022 timing benefits. We're preparing for stand-alone cost structures, with functional headcount down 10% year-to-date. And for the year, we continue to expect expenses in the $600 million range. We also continue to simplify and strengthen the business foundations prior to the launches of GE Aerospace and GE Vernova. This quarter, we partially monetized our GE HealthCare stake. And today, we announced that we will call the remainder of the outstanding GE preferred stock in September, further simplifying our balance sheet and reducing financing costs.

現在談談企業。調整後成本同比上升，主要是由於 2022 年時機效益不再重複。我們正在為獨立成本結構做準備，今年迄今為止，職能人員數量減少了 10%。我們預計今年的支出將繼續在 6 億美元範圍內。在 GE Aerospace 和 GE Vernova 推出之前，我們還繼續簡化和加強業務基礎。本季度，我們將持有的通用電氣醫療保健股份部分貨幣化。今天，我們宣布將於 9 月份贖回剩餘的已發行 GE 優先股，進一步簡化我們的資產負債表並降低融資成本。

And we took actions to reduce our exposure to legacy liabilities. As we have disclosed for some time, our runoff Polish mortgage portfolio, Bank BPH, has been subject to ongoing litigation along with other Polish banks. We approved the adoption of a settlement program. And associated with that, we recorded a charge of $1 billion in discontinued operations. Importantly, no incremental cash contributions from GE are required in connection with the charge as the current cash balances at Bank BPH are adequate.

我們還採取行動減少遺留負債的風險。正如我們一段時間以來所披露的那樣，我們的波蘭抵押貸款組合銀行 BPH 與其他波蘭銀行一起持續受到訴訟。我們批准通過了一項和解計劃。與此相關的是，我們記錄了 10 億美元的停產業務費用。重要的是，由於 BPH 銀行目前的現金餘額充足，因此 GE 無需就該費用提供增量現金捐助。

Overall, we're very pleased with our spin progress in first half, which includes adjusted EPS up more than 3x compared to a year ago. So given the strength of GE Aerospace and the improvement at GE Vernova, for the full year, we're now expecting revenue growth in the low double-digit range, up from high single digits; $2.10 to $2.30 of adjusted EPS, up from $1.70 to $2, and that includes $4.7 billion to $5.1 billion of operating profit; and finally, we now guide for a range of $4.1 billion to $4.6 billion for free cash flow, up from $3.6 billion to $4.2 billion.

總體而言，我們對上半年的旋轉進展感到非常滿意，其中調整後的每股收益比一年前增長了 3 倍以上。因此，考慮到 GE 航空航天公司的實力和 GE Vernova 的進步，我們預計全年收入增長將從高個位數增長到低兩位數區間；調整後每股收益從 1.70 美元增至 2 美元，增至 2.10 美元至 2.30 美元，其中包括 47 億美元至 51 億美元的營業利潤；最後，我們現在的自由現金流指導範圍為 41 億美元至 46 億美元，高於 36 億美元至 42 億美元。

And on that happy note, back to you, Larry.

回到你身邊，拉里。

Carolina, thank you. As many of you saw at the Paris Air Show, GE Aerospace showcased industry-leading solutions for both commercial and defense across propulsion, systems and services. Our teams are delivering for customers, both in services and by growing our large young fleet of 41,000 commercial engines and 26,000 rotorcraft and combat engines.

卡羅萊納，謝謝你。正如許多人在巴黎航展上看到的那樣，GE 航空航天公司展示了行業領先的商業和國防解決方案，涉及推進、系統和服務。我們的團隊不僅在服務方面為客戶提供服務，還通過發展由 41,000 台商用發動機和 26,000 台旋翼機和戰鬥機發動機組成的大型年輕機隊來為客戶提供服務。

Today, we're partnering with airframers, airlines and lessors to drive stability and predictability as they ramp. For tomorrow, we're growing and optimizing our next generation of engines. This quarter, for example, our defense team signed a historic MOU with Hindustan Aeronautics Limited to produce jet fighter engines for the Indian Air Force. And while our commercial business secured major deals with Riyadh Air, Jet2 and more. For the future, we're developing next-generation technologies like RISE, hybrid electrics and sustainable aviation fuels.

如今，我們正在與機身製造商、航空公司和租賃商合作，以在其發展過程中提高穩定性和可預測性。為了明天，我們正在開發和優化下一代發動機。例如，本季度，我們的國防團隊與印度斯坦航空有限公司簽署了歷史性的諒解備忘錄，為印度空軍生產噴氣式戰鬥機發動機。同時，我們的商業業務與利雅得航空、Jet2 等公司達成了重大交易。面向未來，我們正在開發 RISE、混合動力電動和可持續航空燃料等下一代技術。

As a result of our efforts to embed lean and empower those closest to the action, I'm seeing greater intensity, discipline and focus. For example, as we discussed in June, while supply chain and inflation challenges persist, we're using a lean tool called plan for every part to implement pull and improve delivery. Sustaining lean efforts like this helped us increase sequential engine deliveries by 35% in the second quarter, including a 40% improvement in T700 from a 25% reduction in lead times.

由於我們努力嵌入精益並授權那些最接近行動的人，我看到了更大的強度、紀律和專注。例如，正如我們在 6 月份所討論的，雖然供應鍊和通脹挑戰仍然存在，但我們正在使用一種名為“每個部分計劃”的精益工具來實施拉動並改善交付。持續的精益努力幫助我們在第二季度將發動機的連續交付量提高了 35%，其中 T700 的交貨時間縮短了 25%，交付量提高了 40%。

Looking at the market, departures have almost returned to pre-COVID levels. This rapid growth was evident in our quarterly results. Orders were up 37% with strength in commercial services and defense. Revenue was up 28% with equipment growing at double the services rate. Profit improved close to $350 million or nearly 30%. Margins contracted 30 basis points organically. Volume, pricing net of inflation, productivity were offset by unfavorable mix, increased investments and the non-repeated positive contract margin adjustments last year.

從市場來看，出發人數幾乎恢復到了疫情前的水平。這種快速增長在我們的季度業績中顯而易見。商業服務和國防領域的訂單增長 37%。收入增長了 28%，設備增長速度是服務增長速度的兩倍。利潤增加了近 3.5 億美元，即近 30%。利潤率有機收縮 30 個基點。去年，不利的組合、投資增加和未重複的積極合同利潤調整抵消了銷量、扣除通貨膨脹的定價和生產率。

Once again, commercial engines and services was particularly robust with 32% revenue growth. Commercial Engines revenue grew 35% with LEAP deliveries up over 80% year-over-year and over 10% sequentially. We're on track for 1,700 LEAP deliveries this year. As expected, the LEAP spare engine deliveries ratio was higher than 2022, but we expect this to normalize in the second half, remaining roughly in line with 2022 for the full year.

商業引擎和服務再次表現尤為強勁，收入增長了 32%。商用發動機收入增長 35%，LEAP 交付量同比增長超過 80%，環比增長超過 10%。今年我們有望交付 1,700 輛 LEAP。正如預期，LEAP 備用發動機交付率高於 2022 年，但我們預計這一情況將在下半年恢復正常，全年與 2022 年大致保持一致。

Commercial Services revenue also grew over 30%. Internal shop visits increased over 10%, and external spare parts were up over 40%. For the year, we now expect Commercial Engines revenue to grow mid- to high 20s and Commercial Services to grow above 20%.

商業服務收入也增長了 30% 以上。內部車間訪問量增加了 10% 以上，外部備件增加了 40% 以上。今年，我們預計商用發動機收入將增長 20% 左右，商業服務收入將增長 20% 以上。

Defense improved this quarter, delivering significant growth. Orders more than doubled. Engine output increased with units up over 70% year-over-year. Through the first half, we delivered double-digit revenue growth, and we're on track for at least high single-digit growth this year.

本季度國防有所改善，實現了顯著增長。訂單量增加了一倍多。發動機產量增加，單位數量同比增長超過 70%。上半年，我們實現了兩位數的收入增長，今年我們有望實現至少個位數的高增長。

Looking ahead, we're constantly innovating here as well. Our XA100 is the only engine tested and ready to ensure the U.S. maintains air superiority this decade. This engine is the most cost-effective option to meet the needs of the U.S. war fighter for decades to come. We're pleased the House has recognized the importance of this program by including funding in the National Defense Authorization Act and in the House Appropriations Committee Defense Bill. We'll be closely watching the Senate as it considers legislation this week.

展望未來，我們也在不斷創新。我們的 XA100 是唯一經過測試並準備好確保美國在本十年保持空中優勢的發動機。該發動機是滿足美國戰鬥機未來幾十年需求的最具成本效益的選擇。我們很高興眾議院認識到該計劃的重要性，將資金納入《國防授權法》和《眾議院撥款委員會國防法案》。我們將密切關注參議院本週考慮立法的情況。

Based on our first half strength, we're raising revenue growth to high teens to 20% and operating profit to $5.6 billion to $5.9 billion, up roughly $1 billion year-over-year at the midpoint, and we expect free cash flow to be even stronger year-over-year, in line with our increased profit expectations.

基於我們上半年的實力，我們將收入增長率提高到 20%，營業利潤提高到 56 億美元到 59 億美元，中間值同比增長約 10 億美元，我們預計自由現金流將同比更加強勁，這與我們提高的利潤預期一致。

Moving to GE Vernova. We continue to see long-term growth tailwinds driven by the need for more sustainable, affordable, resilient energy along with energy security. And we're encouraged by the team's progress as they use lean to strengthen operations, driving toward a significant inflection in 2024. This quarter, renewables demonstrated continued improvement. Market demand drove record orders, led by Grid with 2 more large HVDC projects. Even excluding these projects, rid orders were up over 40%. As expected, we also recognized a large U.S. offshore order, which was included in our backlog forecast at our March investor conference.

搬到 GE Vernova。我們繼續看到對更可持續、更實惠、更有彈性的能源以及能源安全的需求所推動的長期增長順風。我們對團隊的進步感到鼓舞，他們利用精益來加強運營，並在 2024 年實現重大轉折。本季度，可再生能源表現出持續改善。市場需求推動了創紀錄的訂單增長，其中 Grid 又新增了 2 個大型高壓直流輸電項目。即使排除這些項目，擺脫訂單也增長了 40% 以上。正如預期的那樣，我們還確認了一筆大型美國離岸訂單，該訂單已包含在我們 3 月份投資者會議上的積壓訂單預測中。

Onshore wind was strong again, led by North American equipment growing more than threefold. We serve many of North America's largest developers, and the IRA incentives are helping grow orders significantly this year. Revenue grew 27% organically, driven by higher equipment deliveries across both Wind and Grid. And offshore revenue tripled year-over-year as we increased nacelle production with June, the highest month to date. Importantly, profit improved year-over-year and sequentially for the second consecutive quarter driven by price and productivity improvements, primarily at Onshore and Grid.

在北美設備增長超過三倍的帶動下，陸上風電再次強勁。我們為許多北美最大的開發商提供服務，IRA 激勵措施正在幫助今年的訂單大幅增長。受風電和電網設備交付量增加的推動，收入有機增長 27%。由於我們在 6 月份增加了機艙產量，海上收入同比增長了兩倍，這是迄今為止最高的月份。重要的是，由於價格和生產率提高（主要是在陸上和電網），利潤連續第二個季度同比和環比增長。

Going deeper into each business. At Onshore, the progress continued. First, we're seeing the impact of enhancing our underwriting rigor and focusing on select markets with fewer product offerings.

深入每一項業務。在陸上，進展仍在繼續。首先，我們看到了加強承保嚴格性和專注於產品種類較少的特定市場所產生的影響。

Second, we're driving price to manage inflation. As we've seen the past 4 quarters, equipment margins on new orders are coming in higher than current margins, especially here in the U.S. This will help drive improved profitability going forward.

其次，我們通過推動價格來控制通脹。正如我們在過去四個季度所看到的，新訂單的設備利潤率高於當前利潤率，尤其是在美國，這將有助於推動未來盈利能力的提高。

Next, we're improving reliability through our fleet enhancement program. And as of July, we're almost 30% complete, and we expect to be more than halfway done by year-end. Our cost rationalization continues with Onshore headcount down roughly 30% year-over-year. At offshore, we're improving on the Haliade-X learning curve in reducing cycle times to deliver for our customers as we work through our initial projects.

接下來，我們將通過機隊增強計劃提高可靠性。截至 7 月，我們已完成近 30%，預計到年底將完成一半以上。我們的成本合理化仍在繼續，在岸員工人數同比減少了約 30%。在海上，我們正​​在改進 Haliade-X 學習曲線，在完成初始項目時縮短為客戶提供服務的周期時間。

And finally, in Grid, the top line grew double digits in all businesses with significant margin expansion from volume, price and productivity. Grid was profitable this quarter and remains on track to turn profitable for the full year.

最後，在 Grid 領域，所有業務的收入都實現了兩位數增長，銷量、價格和生產率的利潤率顯著提高。 Grid 本季度實現盈利，並有望全年實現盈利。

Looking ahead, we're raising our full year renewables revenue growth forecast to high single digits, and we're expecting some sequential profit improvement in the second half, driven by Onshore Wind and Grid.

展望未來，我們將全年可再生能源收入增長預測提高至高個位數，並預計在陸上風電和電網的推動下，下半年利潤將出現一些連續改善。

Turning to Power. Power continues to deliver solid results and reliable earnings and cash flow, providing critical support for future growth at GE Vernova. And at the same time, our multiyear decarbonization efforts continue. Just this month, the Province of Ontario announced we'll work together on the planning and licensing process for 3 more potential new small modular reactors there using our BWRX-300 design.

轉向電源。 Power 繼續帶來穩健的業績以及可靠的收益和現金流，為 GE Vernova 的未來增長提供關鍵支持。與此同時，我們多年來的脫碳努力仍在繼續。就在本月，安大略省宣布我們將共同合作，使用我們的 BWRX-300 設計，為另外 3 個潛在的新型小型模塊化反應堆進行規劃和許可流程。

Looking at the market, GE gas turbine utilization grew at a low single-digit rate this quarter. Orders grew high single digits with strength from gas power transactional services. Revenue declined slightly largely due to aeroderivative shipment timing. Services, however, continued to grow, and we had higher HA deliveries. This provides stable baseload power to the Grid now and generates future services growth. Power delivered continued profit growth and margin expansion, price, productivity and higher contractual outage volume on heavy-duty units more than offset inflation.

從市場來看，本季度 GE 燃氣輪機利用率以較低的個位數增長。憑藉天然氣電力交易服務的強勁勢頭，訂單出現高個位數增長。收入略有下降，主要是由於航空衍生產品的發貨時間。然而，服務繼續增長，我們的 HA 交付量也更高。這現在可以為電網提供穩定的基本負載電力，並促進未來的服務增長。電力業務帶來了持續的利潤增長和利潤率擴張、價格、生產率和重型機組合同停電量的增加，足以抵消通貨膨脹。

Overall, in the first half, Power revenue grew mid-single digits organically and margins expanded, led by gas power services. For the year, we continue to expect low single-digit revenue growth. And given our second quarter performance, we now expect Power's profit to be even better versus 2022.

總體而言，上半年，在天然氣發電服務的帶動下，電力收入實現了中個位數有機增長，利潤率也有所擴大。今年，我們繼續預計收入將保持低個位數增長。鑑於我們第二季度的業績，我們現在預計 Power 的利潤將比 2022 年更好。

Taken together for GE Vernova, we're raising our revenue forecast to mid-single-digit growth. We're also improving our profit guidance, driven by both renewables and power, and now expect a negative $400 million to a negative $100 million this year, an improvement of almost $800 million year-over-year at the midpoint. We continue to expect flat to slightly improved free cash flow. Overall, we're pleased with our progress and momentum but, of course, more remains to be done.

綜合來看，我們將 GE Vernova 的收入預測提高至中個位數增長。在可再生能源和電力的推動下，我們還在提高利潤指引，目前預計今年的利潤指引將達到負 4 億美元至負 1 億美元，中間值同比提高近 8 億美元。我們繼續預計自由現金流將持平或略有改善。總的來說，我們對我們的進展和勢頭感到滿意，但當然，還有更多工作要做。

So to wrap up on Slide 7. Our businesses delivered a strong half anchored by missions that matter to our customers and to the world. GE Aerospace inventing the future of flight. GE Vernova electrifying and decarbonizing the world. We're excited about where we are and where we're headed, and I'm confident we're well positioned for success as 2 innovative service-focused market leaders.

幻燈片 7 結束了。我們的業務實現了強勁的一半，這些使命以對我們的客戶和世界至關重要的使命為基礎。 GE 航空航天公司發明了飛行的未來。 GE Vernova 為世界帶來電氣化和脫碳。我們對我們的現狀和前進的方向感到興奮，我相信我們已經做好充分準備，作為兩個以創新服務為中心的市場領導者取得成功。

Steve, with that, let's go to Q&A.

史蒂夫，接下來，讓我們進入問答環節。

Thanks, Larry. Before we open the line, I'd ask everyone in the queue to consider your fellow analysts and ask one question so we can get to as many people as possible. Liz, please open the line.

謝謝，拉里。在我們開始排隊之前，我會要求隊列中的每個人考慮一下您的分析師同事並提出一個問題，以便我們可以接觸到盡可能多的人。 LZ，請打開電話。

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自 Jefferies 的 Sheila Kahyaoglu。

I wanted to ask about Aerospace profitability. When we look at year-to-date margins for the first half, Aero margins are 18.9% and the full year implied guidance is $18.5%. So what are the dynamics of contraction in the second half given the commentary in the release prior was -- the commentary in your release is good market strength, efficiencies are coming through, you've shipped 46% of the lease in H1, slightly ahead of your prior expectation of sequential improvement for the year? So what happens that margins contract in the second half?

我想問一下航空航天的盈利能力。當我們查看上半年年初至今的利潤率時，Aero 利潤率為 18.9%，全年隱含指導值為 18.5%。那麼，考慮到之前發布的評論中的評論，下半年的收縮動態是怎樣的——你們發布的評論是良好的市場實力，效率正在提高，你們在上半年運送了 46% 的租賃量，略高於你們之前對今年連續改善的預期？那麼下半年利潤率收縮會發生什麼情況呢？

Sheila, thank you. No, you're spot on. And I think as we referenced, there is largely a mix dynamic in play as equipment revenues begin to accelerate here, vis-à-vis, services. But I think that's an excellent question for Rahul to jump in on here. It's one of the reasons we wanted to have him here with us this morning. Rahul?

希拉，謝謝你。不，你說得對。我認為正如我們所提到的，隨著設備收入相對於服務開始加速，很大程度上存在著一種混合動態。但我認為拉胡爾提出這個問題非常好。這是我們今天早上想讓他和我們在一起的原因之一。拉胡爾？

Yes. Thanks, Larry. So first, let me just go back to how good the second quarter was, which you referenced. We had 28% organic growth; commercial engine is up more than 50%; service continuing a really strong run with 30%-plus growth; Defense recovering, as Larry said in his remarks, to be up double-digit on revenue growth for the first half; and profit was up more than 30% year-over-year with margin expansion. And the quarter was better than what we had expected going back all the way to April. So -- but more importantly, as we look to the quarter, it gave us the confidence to raise the full year, and our profit is up $1 billion for the year at the midpoint of the guide with year-over-year margin expansion. So that's a positive change as well.

是的。謝謝，拉里。首先，讓我回顧一下您提到的第二季度的表現。我們的有機增長達到 28%；商用發動機漲幅超過50%；服務持續強勁增長，增長超過 30%；正如拉里在講話中所說，國防業務正在復蘇，上半年收入增長將實現兩位數；隨著利潤率的擴大，利潤同比增長超過30%。該季度的情況比我們自四月份以來的預期要好。因此，但更重要的是，當我們展望本季度時，它給了我們全年盈利的信心，而且我們的利潤在指南的中點增加了 10 億美元，利潤率同比增長。所以這也是一個積極的變化。

And relative to April, we're raising the full year profit by about $250 million at the midpoint of the guide with about $400 million of revenue increase. So that's about a 60% incremental drop-through. And that is happening even though most of the revenue increase in our guide is coming from commercial OE as we are raising the commercial OE outlook from approximately 20 to mid- to high 20s. So the business is doing better on execution, and the improvement in the spare parts growth is helping as well.

相對於 4 月份，我們將全年利潤提高了約 2.5 億美元（按指南中點計算），收入增加了約 4 億美元。所以這大約是 60% 的增量下降。儘管我們指南中的大部分收入增長來自商業 OE，但這種情況仍在發生，因為我們將商業 OE 前景從大約 20 提高到 20 左右。因此，業務在執行方面做得更好，備件增長的改善也有所幫助。

Now to your question on the sequential view between first half and second half. The key driver of the sequential growth is commercial from -- is coming from commercial OE, which is up probably 60% between first half, second half. And that's a reversal of what we saw last year. Last year, most of the first half to second half growth was coming from commercial services. And within commercial OE, there is a spare install dynamic happening as well with installs being as a percentage of total shipments increasing as we get into the second half of the year. So that's why you're seeing a sequential step-down in margin. But again, it's going to be a really good year. We're going to expand margins and grow profit about $1 billion for the year.

現在回答你關於上半場和下半場之間的順序視圖的問題。連續增長的主要驅動力來自於商業OE，上半年和下半年之間可能增長了60%。這與我們去年看到的情況相反。去年上半年到下半年的增長大部分來自商業服務。在商業 OE 中，出現了備用安裝動態，隨著進入下半年，安裝量佔總出貨量的百分比也在增加。這就是為什麼你會看到利潤率連續下降。但再說一遍，這將是非常美好的一年。今年我們將擴大利潤率並增加約 10 億美元的利潤。

Our next question comes from the line of Andrew Obin with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的安德魯·奧賓 (Andrew Obin)。

I'll stay in the Power lane, given that there are more illustrious analysts now covering the stock. Offshore, interestingly, you noted favorable year-over-year orders in offshore, and I thought the commentary was that you were not looking at offshore orders. And also if you could comment on the industry dynamic because it seems that folks are pulling out of offshore as the overall pricing dynamic is not favorable. So people are pulling away from contracts. So more color on offshore would be great. And great quarter.

鑑於現在有更多傑出的分析師關注該股票，我將留在權力車道上。有趣的是，離岸，您注意到離岸訂單同比有利，我認為評論是您沒有考慮離岸訂單。另外，您是否可以對行業動態發表評論，因為由於整體定價動態不利，人們似乎正在撤出離岸市場。因此人們正在放棄合同。因此，在海上提供更多顏色會很棒。還有很棒的季度。

Thank you, Andrew. You're illustrious in our eyes, rest reassured. I would say with respect to the offshore orders, again, that was something that we knew we had coming. There were just some details that we needed to lock down, and we were pleased to do that, but really no surprise from what we shared with you out in Cincinnati in March in that regard.

謝謝你，安德魯。你在我們眼裡是傑出的，放心吧。我想說的是，關於離岸訂單，我們知道我們即將到來。我們只是需要鎖定一些細節，我們很高興這樣做，但從我們三月份在辛辛那提與您分享的內容來看，這並不令人意外。

I think for us, we're still building out this Offshore business we referenced what we're doing in terms of production in Saint-Nazaire to begin to flow this backlog, this nascent backlog that we have. We certainly have read and have had direct discussions with a number of customers on both sides of the Atlantic as they prepare for the next decade.

我認為對我們來說，我們仍在建立這個離岸業務，我們參考了我們在聖納澤爾的生產方面所做的事情，以開始處理這個積壓的訂單，我們擁有的這個新生的積壓訂單。我們當然已經閱讀了大西洋兩岸的許多客戶的資料，並與他們進行了直接討論，因為他們正在為下一個十年做準備。

I think we're optimistic about Offshore Wind. I know there was some press over the course of the weekend that talk to some of the potential delays. But at the end of the day, as we think about the energy transition, we think about various ways in which, certainly, the coasts are going to be powered with renewable sources. Offshore has a role to play there. I think what we want to do is build up a business that has a respectable, profitable slice of that market.

我認為我們對海上風電持樂觀態度。我知道周末有一些媒體談到了一些潛在的延誤。但歸根結底，當我們考慮能源轉型時，我們會考慮採用可再生能源為海岸供電的各種方式。離岸公司可以在其中發揮作用。我認為我們想要做的是建立一家在該市場中擁有可觀且有利可圖的份額的業務。

Really pleased with the progress we're making in Onshore. I think everything that we said a year ago is playing out in terms of our selectivity, the improvement in the quality of the backlog from a pricing and from a cost perspective. I think the team here, we've talked often about how they're going to run the Power playbook. They've done a really nice job, making sure that we are working through some of the quality issues that triggered the charge that we took in the third quarter of last year. And again, our cost base is 30% better than it was just 12 months ago. So you put that together, you can really see the churn in Onshore.

我們對陸上取得的進展感到非常滿意。我認為我們一年前所說的一切都在我們的選擇性、從定價和成本角度提高積壓質量方面發揮作用。我認為這裡的團隊，我們經常討論他們將如何運行 Power 劇本。他們做得非常出色，確保我們正在解決一些引發我們在去年第三季度收取費用的質量問題。同樣，我們的成本基礎比 12 個月前提高了 30%。所以你把它們放在一起，你真的可以看到陸上的流失情況。

And Grid, we don't talk a lot about Grid, but really pleased with similar execution against a backdrop where I think maybe more so in Europe, but increasingly here in the U.S. people appreciate how critical grid modernization will be to the energy transition. So we've got 3, as they say in Aerospace, angles of attack in renewables. Gas continuing to play a vital role. So we like the way that we're positioned Offshore Wind being 1 play amongst many at GE Vernova.

至於電網，我們不太談論電網，但對類似的執行感到非常滿意，我認為在歐洲可能更是如此，但在美國，人們越來越認識到電網現代化對能源轉型的重要性。因此，正如航空航天領域所說，我們在可再生能源方面有 3 個攻角。天然氣繼續發揮著至關重要的作用。因此，我們喜歡將海上風電定位為 GE Vernova 的眾多業務之一。

Our next question comes from the line of Seth Seifman with JPMorgan.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根大通的 Seth Seifman。

So I wanted to ask with regard to the margin rate for Aerospace in the second half, if you could talk a little bit about what role you expect pricing to play there and the extent to which it can offset the mix headwinds.

因此，我想問一下關於下半年航空航天的利潤率，您是否可以談談您期望定價在其中發揮什麼作用以及它可以在多大程度上抵消混合阻力。

And then maybe just a technical question. I think you talked about really strong growth in spare parts. And just when we try to think about this and model it going forward, I think if I look in the Q, it's like a low single-digit growth in the spares rate per day, but I think spares were up something like 40% in the quarter. So just kind of how to square those things and how we can kind of measure that and think about it going forward.

然後也許只是一個技術問題。我認為您談到了備件的強勁增長。就在我們嘗試思考這一問題並對其進行建模時，我認為如果我查看 Q，就會發現每天的備件率只有個位數的低增長，但我認為本季度備件數量增長了 40% 左右。所以，我們要如何衡量這些事情，以及我們如何衡量它並思考未來的情況。

So let me start with the first question on pricing debt. So again, I think the price continues to be a positive driver in terms of earnings growth across both defense and commercial. And we are price/cost positive both in the quarter and expect to be price/cost positive for the year. So the trends continue to be good, and that is similar to what we saw last year. So really no change in terms of how we are driving incremental pricing to cover the inflation that we are feeling in the business.

讓我從關於債務定價的第一個問題開始。因此，我再次認為，就國防和商業領域的盈利增長而言，價格仍然是一個積極的推動因素。我們本季度的價格/成本均為正數，並預計今年的價格/成本為正。因此，趨勢仍然良好，這與我們去年看到的類似。因此，我們如何推動增量定價以應對我們在業務中感受到的通貨膨脹，實際上並沒有改變。

Now in terms of our spare parts sales, yes, the spare parts sales, you're right. I mean it was really good growth in the quarter, more than 40%. And I would say 3 large drivers of the spare parts growth. First, the price increases that we just spoke about. But it's just not the increases, it's also the discipline with which we are driving the business so that we're making sure that we are extracting the most out of the price increases that we are putting in place.

現在就我們的備件銷售而言，是的，備件銷售，你是對的。我的意思是，這個季度的增長非常好，超過 40%。我想說的是備件增長的三大驅動力。首先，我們剛才談到的價格上漲。但這不僅僅是價格上漲，也是我們推動業務的紀律，以便我們確保從我們實施的價格上漲中獲得最大收益。

The second was the customer mix was favorable as well. So that helped drive spare parts sales. And the third, I would say, is if you go to back to 2022, China was really weak last year, especially in the second and the third quarters because of the shutdowns in China. So the year-over-year growth trends were helped by a weak compare in the second quarter in China. Now that dynamic is going to shift a little bit as we get into the second half of the year because, if you recall, China came back really strongly in the fourth quarter to get ready for the reopening in first quarter. So that's going to impact our spare parts growth in the second half of the year on a year-over-year basis.

其次，客戶組合也很有利。這有助於推動備件銷售。第三，我想說的是，如果你回到 2022 年，中國去年確實很弱，特別是在第二和第三季度，因為中國的停工。因此，同比增長趨勢得益於中國第二季度的疲弱比較。現在，隨著進入下半年，這種動態將會發生一些變化，因為，如果你還記得的話，中國在第四季度的複蘇非常強勁，為第一季度的重新開放做好了準備。因此，這將影響我們下半年的備件同比增長。

So overall, I think we're really pleased with how spare parts are trending. Good growth in the quarter and expect continued growth in the second half of the year on a year-over-year basis although at a slower rate.

總的來說，我認為我們對備件的趨勢非常滿意。本季度增長良好，預計下半年將繼續同比增長，儘管增速放緩。

Our next question comes from the line of Julian Mitchell with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的朱利安·米切爾。

Maybe I just wanted to focus on the Renewables business because I guess you had a very strong revenue uplift, but the sort of incrementals perhaps if we're looking sequentially or year-on-year were not particularly strong. So maybe help us kind of parse that out in terms of maybe it's offshore losses getting a lot wider, and that's offsetting better incrementals, maybe at Onshore and Grid. Maybe just talk through some of those dynamics.

也許我只是想專注於可再生能源業務，因為我猜你的收入增長非常強勁，但如果我們按順序或同比來看，這種增量可能並不是特別強勁。因此，也許可以幫助我們解析這一點，因為海上損失可能會變得更大，這可能會抵消更好的增量，也許是在陸上和電網。也許只是談談其中的一些動態。

And then as we're thinking about the second half for Renewables and the sort of entry rates into 2024, how do we think about the losses narrowing? Is it sort of linear or there's a step function some time next year because of offshore mix or something?

然後，當我們考慮可再生能源的下半年以及進入 2024 年的進入率時，我們如何看待損失的縮小？是線性的還是明年某個時候由於離岸混合或其他原因會有階躍函數？

Julian, let me frame that for you. I think you've got the contours exactly right. Again, I think that in 2023, what we've said all along is that what we really need to see is that sequential improvement in Onshore Wind. And that was really, if you will, the battleground for us this year as we get ready to have Vernova go sometime early next year.

朱利安，讓我為你設計一下。我認為你的輪廓完全正確。我再次強調，到 2023 年，我們一直所說的是，我們真正需要看到的是陸上風電的連續改進。如果你願意的話，這確實是我們今年的戰場，因為我們準備在明年初的某個時候讓 Vernova 離開。

And I think all in all, we saw that sequential improvement, again, a function of a better backlog being shipped from a pricing, from a terms and conditions perspective. Some of that's a function of our selectivity. Some of that's a function of just improved market conditions. We know we are delivering a higher-quality product to customers today. That's reflected in our cost performance, let alone the restructuring that has been underway there. And that really continues.

我認為總而言之，我們再次看到了連續的改進，這是從定價、條款和條件的角度來看更好的積壓訂單的功能。其中一些是我們的選擇性的函數。其中一些是市場狀況改善的結果。我們知道今天我們正在為客戶提供更高質量的產品。這反映在我們的成本效益中，更不用說正在進行的重組了。這種情況確實還在繼續。

And I'd also suggest that beyond what you see in those numbers, what I see in our operating reviews really gives me confidence that the team is running this business than we would want them to run it, and that bodes well both for the back half improvements that are part of the guide here, but also getting us ready for next year.

我還建議，除了您在這些數字中看到的內容之外，我在我們的運營審查中看到的內容確實讓我有信心，團隊正在運營這項業務，而不是我們希望他們運營的業務，這對於作為指南一部分的後半部分改進來說是個好兆頭，而且也讓我們為明年做好準備。

Again, a similar rollout in Grid. We've been at -- we've been running the Power playbook there for the last couple of years and having them turn profitable, not that that's the goal. We want to be a strong contributor here. I think it's another proof point of progress. You're right, Offshore Wind does begin to negate some of that progress as that mix effect takes a hold with the uptick in Offshore revenues improving and thus, the revenue recognition and the losses there as we work through that initial backlog.

同樣，在 Grid 中也有類似的部署。過去幾年我們一直在那裡運行 Power 劇本並讓它們盈利，但這並不是我們的目標。我們希望成為這裡的強大貢獻者。我認為這是進步的另一個證明點。你是對的，海上風電確實開始抵消一些進展，因為這種混合效應隨著海上收入的上升而持續改善，因此，在我們處理最初的積壓工作時，收入確認和損失也隨之而來。

But we knew that was part of the start-up of Offshore Wind. So we see sequential progress. It's muted a bit perhaps in your eyes because of the Offshore effect. I mean, Offshore was roughly half of the loss in the second quarter. But given the progress in Onshore Wind, given the progress in Grid, given what we know we're going to be able to do an Offshore Wind next year, we feel very good about the progress and the momentum that we're making at Vernova or at renewables at large.

但我們知道這是海上風電初創公司的一部分。所以我們看到了連續的進展。由於離岸效應，它在你眼中可能會有點靜音。我的意思是，離岸業務約佔第二季度虧損的一半。但考慮到陸上風電的進展，考慮到電網的進展，考慮到明年我們將能夠開展海上風電，我們對 Vernova 或整個可再生能源領域取得的進展和勢頭感到非常滿意。

So just to add into what Larry just said. So if you look at Vernova, we are raising both the revenue and the profit guidance for the year. About $150 million of the profit raises from midpoint, and it's coming both with power and renewables contributing to the rate. About 1/3 of that is from the second quarter performance in Power driven by the strength of the Services business, and about 2/3 from Renewables in the second half of 2023 with the improvement in both Onshore and Grid. Onshore mainly because of the backlog margins improving and in Grid from volume and productivity. So good progress in both businesses year-over-year and on a sequential basis.

所以只是補充一下拉里剛才所說的內容。因此，如果你看看 Vernova，我們就會提高今年的收入和利潤指導。大約 1.5 億美元的利潤從中點增加，其中電力和可再生能源都對這一比例做出了貢獻。其中約 1/3 來自服務業務實力推動的第二季度電力業績，約 2/3 來自 2023 年下半年的可再生能源業績，隨著陸上和電網的改善。陸上主要是因為積壓利潤率改善，而電網則來自數量和生產率。兩項業務同比和環比都取得了良好進展。

Our next question comes from Robert Spingarn with Melius Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Melius Research 的 Robert Spingarn。

Larry, maybe on the product development side, perhaps a little high level. But Airbus has said that an A220-500 is a matter of when and not if. And they've also openly talked about the desire to add a second engine to the family. And so given that, that aircraft would directly compete against the MAX 8, do you feel the need to get the LEAP-1B on to the A220 family?

拉里，也許在產品開發方面，也許有點高水平。但空中客車公司表示，A220-500 的問世只是時間問題，而不是是否會出現的問題。他們還公開談論了為家族添加第二台發動機的願望。鑑於該飛機將直接與 MAX 8 競爭，您是否認為有必要將 LEAP-1B 添加到 A220 系列中？

Rob, I thought your multi-series coverage on that specific topic and how the 2 airframers are going to play out their narrow-body product strategy here really captured well the critical questions that we're all wrestling with. As you probably can respect, we're in deep with both of our airframer customers relative to our own product road map and technology road map for that matter, i.e., RISE, and how we can work together as they evolve their own product strategy. So specifically to the A220-500, I think we'll keep our comments private. We'll have that conversation with Guillaume and his team. But obviously, as we evolve our product portfolio, we want to be on all the critical platforms that matter in the decades ahead.

羅布，我認為您對這個特定主題的多系列報導以及兩家機身製造商將如何在這裡實施他們的窄體產品戰略確實很好地抓住了我們都在努力解決的關鍵問題。正如您可能會尊重的那樣，我們與我們的機身製造商客戶就我們自己的產品路線圖和技術路線圖（即 RISE）進行了深入的探討，以及我們如何在他們制定自己的產品戰略時合作。因此，特別是對於 A220-500，我認為我們會將我們的評論保密。我們將與紀堯姆和他的團隊進行對話。但顯然，隨著我們產品組合的發展，我們希望進入未來幾十年重要的所有關鍵平台。

Our next question comes from the line of Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets.

我們的下一個問題來自加拿大皇家銀行資本市場部的迪恩·德雷 (Deane Dray)。

First of all, thank you to Carolina and wish you all the best.

首先，感謝卡羅萊納並祝你一切順利。

Thank you, Deane.

謝謝你，迪恩。

Larry, I know you talked about the renewable orders that were booked in terms of profitability. But can you generalize a bit and talk about the range of customer modifications within these orders that were booked that had been a problem before, too much variability versus steering customers to a more standardized offering? Does that readout in these orders?

拉里，我知道您談到了根據盈利能力預訂的可再生訂​​單。但是，您能否概括一下並談談這些訂單中的客戶修改範圍，這些訂單之前一直是一個問題，與引導客戶轉向更標準化的產品相比，變化太大？這些命令中的讀數嗎？

Deane, we should have mentioned that earlier. Thanks for asking about that. Part of what we've tried to do in addition to our selectivity effort in terms of the types of opportunities that we pursue is also make sure that, frankly, we are driving more standardized offerings. I would say that we are seeing probably more in the order book than in the P&L today the positive effect of that.

迪恩，我們應該早點提到這一點。感謝您詢問此事。坦率地說，除了我們在追求機會類型方面的選擇性努力之外，我們還嘗試做的部分工作是確保我們正在推動更加標準化的產品。我想說的是，我們今天在訂單簿中看到的積極影響可能比在損益表中更多。

I'd also say coupled with that is just, frankly, a more conservative forward estimation of cost. And that will play out over time. We'll see how conservative those estimates are. But I know that the team for the last several quarters is really not that too far into the future vis-à-vis the cost position that we anticipate having when we deliver on this growing backlog.

坦率地說，我還想說，這只是對成本的更保守的前瞻性估計。這將隨著時間的推移而發揮作用。我們將看看這些估計有多保守。但我知道，與我們在交付不斷增加的積壓訂單時預計的成本狀況相比，過去幾個季度的團隊實際上並沒有那麼遙遠。

So you put all that together in addition to the quality improvements that we put across the sharply reduced cost structure that we have in the business. I think that's why we've got, particularly in Onshore Wind, the optimism we do about the back half and profitability in 2024.

因此，除了我們在業務中大幅降低的成本結構中進行的質量改進之外，您還可以將所有這些放在一起。我認為這就是為什麼我們對 2024 年下半年和盈利能力持樂觀態度，尤其是在陸上風電領域。

Our next question comes from Jeffrey Sprague with Vertical Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自垂直研究合作夥伴的 Jeffrey Sprague。

Just a follow-up on renewables maybe. Just love to get your thoughts on the trajectory of free cash flow. I'm kind of stuck with the same language, right, flat to improving. But I'm wondering if inside that, given the better trajectory of profitability apparently and what looks like some decent orders that should be coming with deposits attached if in fact the free cash flow outlook for renewables has improved for the year and if you have anything to share about how you view 2024 playing out.

也許只是可再生能源的後續行動。只是想了解您對自由現金流軌蹟的看法。我有點堅持同一種語言，對吧，進步很平緩。但我想知道，考慮到盈利能力明顯改善，以及看起來應該附帶押金的一些不錯的訂單，如果事實上今年可再生能源的自由現金流前景有所改善，以及您是否有任何關於如何看待 2024 年的事情可以分享。

So let me start, Jeff, with 2023 first. So on renewables for full year, in the current construct, what you'll find is kind of flattish to last year, $150-ish million positive from earnings, right, with huge growth in earnings minus the charge that we took last year and good progress on Onshore Wind here, especially with the progress payments. Grid's doing well, but it's coming -- it's getting offset by the offshore from absence of progress payments and the way the contract assets are playing out. So overall, renewables, think of that as kind of flat year-over-year for full year.

傑夫，讓我先從 2023 年開始。因此，就全年可再生能源而言，在當前的結構中，你會發現與去年持平，收益為 1.5 億美元左右，對吧，收益大幅增長，減去我們去年收取的費用，陸上風電也取得了良好進展，尤其是進度付款。 Grid 表現不錯，但它即將到來——由於缺乏進度付款和合同資產的運作方式，它被離岸公司所抵消。總體而言，可再生能源全年同比持平。

And then if you go to Power, the fact is Power free cash could be slightly down year-over-year. Again, positive earnings from cash, but it's getting pressured with these contract assets because as the revenue growth happens, we burn through the contract assets that are sitting on our books because the revenue exceeds the billings. So that's what's happening on the Power side. So it's good for the business. The revenue growth is happening. The outages are helping. It's driving good revenue growth, but has a temporary negative impact on free cash. Now obviously, as we get into 2024, we'll provide more guidance as we get towards the end of the year into next year, but we do expect strong sequential improvement year-over-year in Vernova business overall.

然後，如果你去看看 Power，事實是 Power free 現金可能會同比略有下降。同樣，來自現金的正收益，但它受到這些合同資產的壓力，因為隨著收入的增長，我們會消耗掉賬面上的合同資產，因為收入超過了賬單。這就是電力方面正在發生的事情。所以這對生意有好處。收入正在增長。停電正在發揮作用。它推動了良好的收入增長，但對自由現金產生了暫時的負面影響。現在顯然，隨著我們進入 2024 年，我們將在年底和明年提供更多指導，但我們確實預計 Vernova 業務整體將逐年強勁改善。

Our next question comes from Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Nigel Coe。

So just wondered if maybe we could just dive into maybe 3Q and look at some of the moving pieces for both earnings and free cash flow. And on top of that, just this $1 billion charge on the Polish Bank, is that just writing down the remaining net asset value in that business, no cash? And does that clean up litigation there?

因此，我想知道我們是否可以深入研究第三季度，看看收益和自由現金流方面的一些變化。最重要的是，波蘭銀行的這 10 億美元費用，只是減記了該業務剩餘的資產淨值，沒有現金嗎？這會消除那裡的訴訟嗎？

Yes. So on Poland, Nigel, I didn't fully follow your third quarter question, so let's come back to that. But let me start with Poland. So we've been working to simplify the legacy liabilities, and it's a meaningful step forward in that direction prior to spin. We are approving a settlement program, and that significantly reduces our exposure to future losses. And as Carolina said in her prepared remarks, there's no incremental GE cash from taking this reserve as the bank has adequate cash balances. So we feel good to get this as much as we can behind us. Obviously, the situation is evolving. But at this point, it's a really good step forward as we clean up and simplify all the legacy liabilities.

是的。關於波蘭，奈傑爾，我沒有完全理解你第三季度的問題，所以讓我們回到這個問題。但讓我從波蘭開始。因此，我們一直在努力簡化遺留負債，這是在剝離之前朝著這個方向邁出的有意義的一步。我們正在批准一項和解計劃，這將大大減少我們未來損失的風險。正如卡羅萊納州在她準備好的講話中所說，由於該銀行擁有充足的現金餘額，因此接受這筆儲備金不會增加通用電氣的現金。因此，我們很高興能盡我們所能地解決這個問題。顯然，情況正在演變。但在這一點上，隨著我們清理和簡化所有遺留債務，這是向前邁出的非常好的一步。

And the 3Q question was just guide, just how are we thinking about 3Q guidance overall.

第三季度的問題只是指導，我們如何整體考慮第三季度的指導。

Yes. So on third quarter, expect high single-digit revenue growth in the quarter and then EPS range of about $0.45 to $0.55 with sequential profit growth in both Aerospace and in Renewables. And we will see a pretty strong growth in Power in the third quarter on profit, and expect the margins to go up 3 to 4 points on Power. And if you look at the EPS that we're providing, the range that we're providing of $0.45 to $0.55, that's about 2x what we did last year even if we exclude the charge. So it's a significant improvement from that.

是的。因此，在第三季度，預計該季度收入將出現高個位數增長，每股收益將在 0.45 美元至 0.55 美元之間，航空航天和可再生能源領域的利潤將連續增長。我們將看到 Power 第三季度的利潤增長相當強勁，並預計 Power 的利潤率將上升 3 到 4 個百分點。如果你看看我們提供的每股收益，我們提供的每股收益範圍為 0.45 美元到 0.55 美元，即使我們排除費用，這大約是我們去年的兩倍。所以這是一個顯著的改進。

And for Aerospace, going back all the way to prior questions, profit will be up sequentially, but the margin rates could be down slightly given the majority of the first half to second half increase is coming from commercial OE. And then Renewables will continue to see sequential improvements, given Onshore Wind and Grid performance. And then as I said, Power, given the outage activity in the third quarter, we do expect good improvement there and free cash. And the free cash kind of flat to up slightly in the quarter with earnings growth and working capital reduction offsetting the D&A headwind.

對於航空航天來說，回到之前的問題，利潤將連續增長，但考慮到上半年到下半年增長的大部分來自商業原件，利潤率可能會略有下降。鑑於陸上風電和電網性能，可再生能源將繼續取得連續改進。然後，正如我所說，鑑於第三季度的停電活動，我們確實預計那裡會有良好的改善和免費現金。本季度自由現金持平或略有上升，盈利增長和營運資本減少抵消了 D&A 的不利影響。

Our next question comes from Andrew Kaplowitz with Citi.

我們的下一個問題來自花旗銀行的安德魯·卡普洛維茨。

Carolina, thanks for your help.

卡羅萊納，謝謝你的幫助。

Andrew, thank you.

安德魯，謝謝你。

Could you give us a little more color into the improvement you're seeing in your Defense business? You talked about orders more than doubling. Revenue was up 31%. Has Defense growth and profitability really turned the corner for you guys? And how do we think about its contribution to growth and margin over next couple of quarters and into '24? I know you said that you expect at least high single-digit growth for Defense, but does GE Defense now have an extended runway for growth?

您能否向我們介紹一下您在國防業務中所看到的改進？您談到訂單增加了一倍多。收入增長了 31%。你們的國防增長和盈利能力真的扭轉了嗎？我們如何看待它對未來幾個季度和 24 世紀增長和利潤率的貢獻？我知道您說過您預計國防業務至少會實現高個位數增長，但通用電氣國防業務現在是否有更長的增長跑道？

Andy, maybe I'll start. As we indicated in our prepared remarks, and I think we have through the last several quarters, demand is not our fundamental challenge in the Defense arena, throughput is. And the supply chain challenges that we've talked about and everyone talks about certainly applied to Defense. I think we've had some particular issues that have challenged us, especially so with the first quarter numbers. I think we're really encouraged by what we have seen recently, not only with the T700, but with a host of platforms where our material flow in our own facilities is better. We are improving yields in a number of key operations that allows that flow to take place.

安迪，也許我會開始。正如我們在準備好的發言中指出的那樣，我認為過去幾個季度我們已經做到了這一點，需求不是我們在國防領域的根本挑戰，吞吐量才是。我們談論過的、每個人都談論過的供應鏈挑戰當然也適用於國防。我認為我們遇到了一些挑戰我們的特殊問題，尤其是第一季度的數字。我認為我們對最近所看到的情況感到非常鼓舞，不僅是 T700，還有許多平台，我們自己的設施中的物料流變得更好。我們正在提高一些關鍵操作的產量，以實現這一流程。

And we talked a little bit about PFEP, a plan for every part, how that helps us implement pull and turn improved deliveries. So our signals to not only our internal supply base, but also our external supply base are better and more clear. We're not just trying to work against past due, but really targeting what we need when we need it. And that has, in turn, I think had some early impact here. And to the extent that we're able to do that, do that productively, and we've certainly seen, I think, improvements not only in traditional material price cost, but also beginning to see some labor productivity improvements, all of that accrues to our good. But as long as we're able to continue to drive this output level, we'll see that high single-digit top line number and, in turn, the goodness that will follow out from a margin and from a cash perspective. Rahul, anything you'd add there?

我們討論了 PFEP，這是一個針對每個部分的計劃，以及它如何幫助我們實施拉動和轉向改進的交付。因此，我們不僅向我們的內部供應基地發出信號，而且向我們的外部供應基地發出更好、更清晰的信號。我們不僅僅是在努力彌補逾期，而是在需要時真正瞄准我們需要的東西。我認為這反過來又產生了一些早期影響。如果我們能夠做到這一點，並且富有成效地做到這一點，我認為我們當然已經看到，不僅傳統材料價格成本有所改善，而且還開始看到一些勞動生產率的提高，所有這些都對我們有利。但只要我們能夠繼續推動這一產出水平，我們就會看到高個位數的營收數字，反過來，從利潤和現金角度來看也會帶來好處。拉胡爾，你還有什麼要補充的嗎？

No, Larry, I think you covered it. I think it's good to see the recovery happening in the second half -- in the second quarter kind of puts us back on track for the full year. And we're seeing good demand and good improvement in year-over-year delivery. So we expect a good half in the back half of the year.

不，拉里，我想你已經涵蓋了。我認為很高興看到下半年出現復甦——第二季度讓我們全年回到正軌。我們看到了良好的需求和同比交付的良好改善。所以我們預計今年下半年會有好半年的時間。

Our next question comes from the line of Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.

我們的下一個問題來自高盛的喬·里奇。

Carolina, thank you for all the help throughout the years.

卡羅萊納州，感謝您多年來的所有幫助。

Thank you. Thank you.

謝謝。謝謝。

So really my question -- well, congrats on all the progress you're making, staying at the balance sheet with the pref redemption, the Polish mortgage announcement today. I'm just curious from this point forward, how are you thinking about capital allocation pre-spend? And then any color that you can give us on just the progress of the spend? I know you said early 2024, but just any other hurdles that you see from here to there.

所以我的問題是——好吧，恭喜你所取得的所有進展，通過預贖回保持在資產負債表上，今天波蘭抵押貸款公告。我只是好奇從現在開始，您如何考慮資本分配預支出？那麼您能給我們提供有關支出進度的任何顏色嗎？我知道你說的是 2024 年初，但你從這裡到那裡看到的任何其他障礙都是如此。

Joe, I would say that there really isn't any change in our perspective this morning with respect to the spend and the capital allocation decisions that we'll take between now and then. We've talked about Vernova launching sometime early next year. That is still very much the case today. We've talked about that really being a function of their performance, not necessarily our readiness, because the teams that are focused on the separation work had, I think, real success with HealthCare, are rerunning that playbook here and are exactly where we would want to be in the middle of July.

喬，我想說，今天早上我們對從現在到那時將採取的支出和資本分配決策的看法確實沒有任何變化。我們已經討論過 Vernova 將於明年初推出。今天的情況仍然如此。我們已經討論過，這實際上取決於他們的表現，不一定是我們的準備情況，因為我認為，專注於分離工作的團隊在醫療保健方面取得了真正的成功，正在這裡重新運行該劇本，這正是我們希望在 7 月中旬達到的目標。

So as we look forward, again, I think we're really encouraged by what we have seen in the first half results and in the second half outlook. Still work to do, right? There's a negative operating loss there that none of us feel great about. But I think what we've said is the way we'll define winning is sequential improvement business by business. And what we've seen in Onshore and Grid, I think we can all be quite proud of.

因此，當我們展望未來時，我認為我們對上半年的業績和下半年的前景感到非常鼓舞。還有工作要做，對吧？那裡存在負運營損失，我們對此都感到不舒服。但我認為我們所說的是我們定義獲勝的方式是逐個業務的連續改進。我認為我們在陸上和電網中所看到的一切都值得我們感到自豪。

With respect to capital allocation, job 1 remains a successful standup of all 3 of these companies. And while you've seen us continue to make progress on some of the specific initiatives like the monetization of the AerCap stake, likewise with HealthCare, you mentioned the preps, thank you, even the -- well, just you put all that together, we're very much going to be in position from a balance sheet perspective to not only launch but then allow each of the respective Boards at Aerospace and Vernova to shape the contours of a capital allocation policy fit for each business. So that may be a little boring perhaps here in the near term, but this team is hyper focused on what our overarching priority is over the next several quarters, and that is the successful spin of GE Vernova and successful standup of GE Aerospace.

就資本配置而言，工作 1 仍然是所有這 3 家公司的成功典範。雖然您看到我們在一些具體舉措上繼續取得進展，例如 AerCap 股份的貨幣化，醫療保健領域也是如此，但您提到了準備工作，謝謝您，甚至 - 好吧，只要您將所有這些放在一起，從資產負債表的角度來看，我們將處於有利位置，不僅啟動，而且允許航空航天和 Vernova 各自的董事會制定適合每個業務的資本分配政策的輪廓。因此，短期內這可能有點無聊，但這個團隊非常專注於我們未來幾個季度的首要任務，那就是 GE Vernova 的成功轉型和 GE Aerospace 的成功站立。

Liz, we have time for one last quick question.

麗茲，我們有時間回答最後一個快速問題。

This question will come from the line of Chris Snyder with UBS.

這個問題將來自瑞銀集團的克里斯·斯奈德 (Chris Snyder)。

I appreciate the time. So I want to ask on renewables. Revenue was up 12% in the first half of the year. And with the full year guidance calling for high single-digit revenue growth, it's I guess implying like a fall down to low singles in the back half of the year. Can you just maybe talk about what's driving that? Because it doesn't seem to jive with orders up well over 100% for the first half.

我很感激時間。所以我想問一下可再生能源的問題。上半年收入增長12%。由於全年指導要求收入實現高個位數增長，我猜這意味著下半年收入將跌至低個位數。您能談談是什麼推動了這一趨勢嗎？因為上半年訂單增幅遠超 100%，情況似乎不太樂觀。

So the orders don't help much this year, Chris. I mean, that's mainly -- those revenues, those orders will kind of play out over '24 and even '25. So -- and what you see between the first half growth and the second half growth is just basically project timing. It's just a question of which projects are getting executed and how those projects play out. So -- but again, it's good progress, feel better about the year, raising guidance on renewables, on revenue growth. So it's good progress. And the orders that we -- and the orders are obviously very, very strong, and that helps '24 and '25.

所以今年的訂單沒有多大幫助，克里斯。我的意思是，這主要是——這些收入、這些訂單將在 24 年甚至 25 年期間發揮作用。因此，您在上半年增長和下半年增長之間看到的基本上只是項目時機。問題只是哪些項目正在執行以及這些項目如何發揮作用。所以，但同樣，這是良好的進展，對這一年感覺更好，提高了可再生能源和收入增長的指導。所以這是一個很好的進步。我們的訂單 - 訂單顯然非常非常強大，這有助於 24 和 25 年。

Thanks, Rahul. Larry, any final comment?

謝謝，拉胡爾。拉里，最後有什麼意見嗎？

Steve, thank you. No, I would say simply to close a strong first half in 2023. And frankly, I've never been more confident in our path ahead as we prepare to launch both GE Aerospace and GE Vernova. Thanks everybody for your time today and your investment and support of our company.

史蒂夫，謝謝你。不，我想說的只是在 2023 年上半年取得強勁業績。坦率地說，當我們準備推出 GE Aerospace 和 GE Vernova 時，我對未來的道路從未如此有信心。感謝大家今天抽出時間以及對我們公司的投資和支持。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝你們，女士們、先生們。今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。