奇異 (GE) 2022 Q4 法說會逐字稿

Good Day, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the General Electric Fourth Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. (Operator Instructions) My name is Liz, and I will be your conference coordinator today. (Operator Instructions) As a reminder, this conference is being recorded.

女士們先生們，美好的一天，歡迎來到通用電氣 2022 年第四季度收益電話會議。 （操作員說明）我叫 Liz，今天我將擔任您的會議協調員。 （操作員說明）提醒一下，正在錄製此會議。

I would now like to turn the program over to your host for today's conference, Steve Winoker, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please proceed.

我現在想把程序交給今天會議的主持人，投資者關係副總裁 Steve Winoker。請繼續。

Thanks, Liz. Welcome to GE's Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2022 Earnings Call. I'm joined by Chairman and CEO, Larry Culp; and CFO, Carolina Dybeck-Happe.

謝謝，麗茲。歡迎來到通用電氣 2022 年第四季度和全年收益電話會議。主席兼首席執行官 Larry Culp 也加入了我的行列；首席財務官 Carolina Dybeck-Happe。

Keep in mind that some of the statements we're making are forward-looking and based on our best view of the world and our businesses as we see them today. As described in our SEC filings and on our website, those elements may change as the world changes.

請記住，我們所做的一些陳述是前瞻性的，是基於我們對當今世界和我們業務的最佳看法。正如我們在 SEC 文件和網站上所描述的那樣，這些要素可能會隨著世界的變化而變化。

As a reminder, GE completed the separation of our Healthcare business this month. GE Healthcare will report separately on January 30. So while included in our 2022 results, we're focusing today's commentary primarily on GE Aerospace and GE Vernova, our portfolio of energy businesses. Our remarks will also be simpler and shorter today, reflecting the company we are now, and we'll move more quickly to Q&A.

提醒一下，通用電氣本月完成了醫療保健業務的分離。 GE Healthcare 將在 1 月 30 日單獨發布報告。因此，雖然包括在我們 2022 年的業績中，但我們今天的評論主要集中在我們的能源業務組合 GE Aerospace 和 GE Vernova 上。我們今天的發言也將更簡單、更簡短，以反映我們現在的公司，我們將更快地轉向問答環節。

I'll now hand the call over to Larry.

我現在將電話轉給拉里。

Steve, thank you, and good morning, everyone. 2022 marked the beginning of a new era for GE, following 4 years of strategic and operational transformation. We successfully separated GE Healthcare in a spin-off, distributing approximately 80% to GE shareholders on January 3. We strengthened our foundation, retiring an additional $11 billion of debt, bringing our total debt reduction over $100 billion since 2018. We continue to improve our operations, further embedding Lean and decentralization to better serve our customers. And today, excluding GE Healthcare Services -- which are both higher-margin and more resilient, represented an even larger part of our portfolio, about 60% of revenues and 85% of our backlog.

史蒂夫，謝謝你，大家早上好。經過 4 年的戰略和運營轉型，2022 年標誌著 GE 新時代的開始。我們在分拆中成功分離了 GE Healthcare，於 1 月 3 日將約 80% 的股份分配給 GE 股東。我們鞏固了基礎，還清了額外的 110 億美元債務，使我們自 2018 年以來的總債務減少超過 1000 億美元。我們繼續改進我們的運營，進一步嵌入精益和權力下放，以更好地為我們的客戶服務。今天，不包括利潤率更高且更具彈性的 GE Healthcare Services，它在我們的投資組合中所佔比例更大，約佔收入的 60% 和積壓訂單的 85%。

We finished the year strong, delivering revenue growth, margin expansion and better cash generation. GE Aerospace led the way as we executed on an unprecedented ramp. Within GE Vernova, Power delivered with continued stability at gas, and we took significant actions to position renewable energy for future profitability.

我們以強勁的勢頭結束了這一年，實現了收入增長、利潤率擴張和更好的現金生成。 GE Aerospace 在我們以前所未有的速度執行時處於領先地位。在 GE Vernova 內部，Power 交付的天然氣業務持續穩定，我們採取了重大行動來定位可再生能源以實現未來的盈利能力。

External catalysts like U.S. climate legislation and the European focus on accelerating electrification are increasing investment in new decarbonization technologies. This progress has positioned us to create industry-leading investment-grade independent public companies.

美國氣候立法和歐洲對加速電氣化的關注等外部催化劑正在增加對新脫碳技術的投資。這一進展使我們能夠創建行業領先的投資級獨立上市公司。

Thanks to our team's high-quality work, our plans to launch GE Vernova and GE Aerospace are progressing well. We're filling key leadership positions for both, and we're preparing for 2 stand-alone businesses. We'll share more details with you, including our ongoing progress and time line for the planned GE Vernova spin, at our investor conference in March.

由於我們團隊的高質量工作，我們推出 GE Vernova 和 GE Aerospace 的計劃進展順利。我們正在為兩者填補關鍵的領導職位，我們正在為 2 個獨立的業務做準備。我們將在 3 月份的投資者會議上與您分享更多詳細信息，包括我們正在進行的進展和計劃中的 GE Vernova 分拆的時間表。

I could not be more proud of how the GE team managed through a challenging external environment to deliver for our customers and partners in 2022. My thanks to everyone.

我為 GE 團隊如何在充滿挑戰的外部環境中管理並在 2022 年為我們的客戶和合作夥伴提供服務而感到無比自豪。感謝大家。

And before I turn the call over to Carolina, a moment of reflection. Just 2 weeks ago, I, along with many of our leadership team, attended a memorial service for our exemplary GE Board member and former U.S. Secretary of Defense, Ash Carter. Ash was a remarkable leader, incredibly humble and clear-headed. We miss him and his sage counsel.

在我把電話轉給 Carolina 之前，先反思一下。就在兩週前，我和我們的許多領導團隊一起參加了為我們模範的 GE 董事會成員和前美國國防部長 Ash Carter 舉行的追悼會。 Ash 是一位傑出的領導者，非常謙虛且頭腦清醒。我們想念他和他的明智忠告。

Now Carolina will take you through our results.

現在 Carolina 將帶您了解我們的結果。

Thanks, Larry. Turning to Slide 3. I'll speak to the key drivers of our performance, I'll do it on an organic basis and including GE Healthcare.

謝謝，拉里。轉向幻燈片 3。我將談談我們業績的主要驅動因素，我將在有機基礎上進行，包括 GE Healthcare。

In the fourth quarter, top line momentum continued as orders grew significantly across all segments. Revenue was up 11%, with services up 13%.

第四季度，隨著所有部門的訂單顯著增長，營收勢頭持續。收入增長 11%，服務增長 13%。

By segment. Revenue at Aerospace, Power and Healthcare was up double digits, driven by market demand, price realization and improving delivery. This was partially offset by Renewables largely due to lower volume resulting from U.S. PTC lapse and our heightened commercial selectivity. Adjusted margin expanded 290 basis points. Power was particularly robust, offsetting renewables. Overall, our price and cost-out actions outpaced inflation.

按細分。在市場需求、價格實現和交付改善的推動下，航空航天、電力和醫療保健領域的收入增長了兩位數。這在很大程度上被可再生能源部分抵消了，這主要是由於美國 PTC 失效導致銷量下降以及我們提高了商業選擇性。調整後的利潤率擴大了 290 個基點。電力特別強勁，抵消了可再生能源的影響。總體而言，我們的價格和成本支出行動超過了通貨膨脹。

Revenue and profit growth resulted in over 50% EPS growth. Free cash flow was $4.3 billion, primarily driven by strong earnings and improving working capital. All accounts were a source of cash except receivables, which, as expected, was a use from revenue growth.

收入和利潤增長導致每股收益增長超過 50%。自由現金流為 43 億美元，主要受強勁收益和改善營運資本的推動。除應收賬款外，所有賬戶都是現金來源，正如預期的那樣，應收賬款是收入增長的一種使用。

Moving to the full year. Orders were up 7%, with 22% growth in Aerospace and 13% growth in Power. Total services orders were up 12%, supporting profitable growth in 2023. Revenue was up 6%, largely driven, again, by aerospace, up 23%. More broadly, higher-margin services were up double digits, while total equipment revenue decreased 4%.

搬到全年。訂單增長 7%，航空航天增長 22%，電力增長 13%。總服務訂單增長了 12%，支持了 2023 年的盈利增長。收入增長了 6%，這在很大程度上再次受到航空航天的推動，增長了 23%。更廣泛地說，利潤率較高的服務增長了兩位數，而設備總收入下降了 4%。

Collectively, supply chain headwinds and macro pressures impacted our performance by about 4 points. Importantly, margins, EPS and free cash flow all significantly improved year-over-year and finished in line or above the most recent outlook we shared in October.

總的來說，供應鏈逆風和宏觀壓力對我們的表現產生了大約 4 個百分點的影響。重要的是，利潤率、每股收益和自由現金流均同比顯著改善，並符合或高於我們在 10 月份分享的最新展望。

Adjusted margin expanded 160 basis points, led by Aerospace and Power. Robust services growth, pricing, plus almost $1.5 billion of cost-out actions drove improvement. This was partially offset by inflationary pressures especially at our shorter-cycle businesses and pressure from Renewables.

調整後的利潤率擴大了 160 個基點，航空航天和電力領漲。強勁的服務增長、定價以及近 15 億美元的成本支出行動推動了改進。這部分被通脹壓力所抵消，尤其是我們較短週期業務的通脹壓力以及來自可再生能源的壓力。

Operating profit growth and debt reduction drove EPS up more than 50% for the full year. Free cash flow was $4.8 billion, up over $2 billion or over 80% improvement, driven by earnings and reduced debt. In 2022, working capital was a source of cash as accounts payable, progress collections and contract assets all contributed to the solid performance.

營業利潤增長和債務減少推動全年每股收益增長超過 50%。在收益和債務減少的推動下，自由現金流為 48 億美元，增長超過 20 億美元或超過 80%。 2022年，營運資金是現金來源，應付賬款、進度回款和合同資產都為穩健的業績做出了貢獻。

Now a moment on corporate. In 2021, we ended the year with $1.2 billion of costs. We continued to reduce costs in 2022, including a few hundred million dollars of market-driven favorability. We now have a smaller, leaner cost structure. And in 2023, we expect costs of about $600 million or roughly half of the 2021 sales line. Free cash flow, we expect to improve significantly given our progress with debt reduction and lower costs.

現在談談企業。 2021 年，我們以 12 億美元的成本結束了這一年。我們在 2022 年繼續降低成本，包括數億美元的市場驅動的好感度。我們現在擁有更小、更精簡的成本結構。到 2023 年，我們預計成本約為 6 億美元，大約是 2021 年銷售線的一半。鑑於我們在減少債務和降低成本方面取得的進展，我們預計自由現金流將顯著改善。

We continue to execute our restructuring plans and reduce our cost structure post the Healthcare spin, setting up fit-for-purpose, stand-alone structures for GE Aerospace and GE Vernova. Stepping back, we're encouraged by our improved volume and pricing and our significant cost-out actions exiting the quarter. This will help us drive continued growth in 2023.

我們繼續執行我們的重組計劃，並在 Healthcare 分拆後降低成本結構，為 GE Aerospace 和 GE Vernova 建立適合用途的獨立結構。退後一步，我們對我們改進的數量和定價以及我們在本季度退出的重大成本支出行動感到鼓舞。這將幫助我們推動 2023 年的持續增長。

Now back to you, Larry, to discuss our businesses.

現在回到你身邊，拉里，討論我們的業務。

Carolina, thank you. Starting with Aerospace. I'm 6 months in leading this business, and my conviction is even higher today that we have a premier franchise with highly differentiated product and technology positions and leading positions in attractive commercial and military sectors.

卡羅萊納，謝謝你。從航天開始。我領導這項業務已有 6 個月的時間，今天我更加堅信我們擁有一流的特許經營權，具有高度差異化的產品和技術地位，並且在有吸引力的商業和軍事領域處於領先地位。

Entering 2022, our priority was delivering on the significant growth across both engines and services, where stability and predictability are critically important for our customers. This starts with the right team. We have a balance of unparalleled experience and fresh perspective with nearly half our leaders new to their roles this year.

進入 2022 年，我們的首要任務是實現引擎和服務的顯著增長，其中穩定性和可預測性對我們的客戶至關重要。這從合適的團隊開始。我們擁有無與倫比的經驗和新鮮的視角，近一半的領導者今年是新角色。

We're also driving 2 major operational changes. First is accelerating our progress with Lean to improve operating rigor and delivery. Take supply chain, where we've seen real improvements with more to come.

我們還推動了 2 項主要的運營變革。首先是加快我們在精益方面的進步，以提高運營的嚴謹性和交付能力。以供應鍊為例，我們已經看到了真正的改進，而且還會有更多改進。

Our team in Terre Haute produces LEAP turbine center frames and started '22 with about 50 pieces delinquent. Working through multiple Kaizens, implementing flows, standard work and daily management, the team's Lean actions increased output over 20% and improved productivity by about 10%. And today, they are on schedule. With our 2023 demand, we'll need to continue to use Lean in this way to deliver for our customers.

我們在 Terre Haute 的團隊生產 LEAP 渦輪機中心框架，並從 22 年開始有大約 50 件拖欠。通過多次改善，實施流程、標準工作和日常管理，團隊的精益行動使產出增加了 20% 以上，生產力提高了約 10%。今天，他們如期而至。鑑於我們 2023 年的需求，我們將需要繼續以這種方式使用精益來為我們的客戶提供服務。

The second is decentralization. For example, in our Commercial Engines business, we're increasingly running our product lines as their own P&Ls, in line with how our customers work with us. More cross-functional collaboration in real time closer to the customer helps make us better.

二是去中心化。例如，在我們的商用發動機業務中，我們越來越多地將我們的產品線作為他們自己的損益表來運行，以符合我們的客戶與我們的合作方式。更貼近客戶的實時跨職能協作有助於我們做得更好。

Turning to the quarter. Both orders and revenue were up over 20%. Equipment orders were robust, now with almost 10,000 LEAP engines in backlog. Commercial services and equipment revenue grew about 30%, and Military revenue was up about 20%, and services internal shop visits were up 25% and external part sales were up more than 20%. In equipment, commercial units were up nearly 30% with LEAP units up almost to 50%.

轉向季度。訂單和收入都增長了 20% 以上。設備訂單強勁，目前積壓了近 10,000 台 LEAP 發動機。商業服務和設備收入增長約 30%，軍事收入增長約 20%，服務內部商店訪問量增長 25%，外部零件銷售額增長超過 20%。在設備方面，商業單位增長了近 30%，其中 LEAP 單位增長了近 50%。

Looking sequentially, both internal shop visits and commercial units were about flat, but military units were up 10%. While material availability continues to be a challenge, our output across engines and services, we're using our Lean tools to help accelerate sequential improvement, a key for us this year.

按順序看，內部商店訪問量和商業單位都基本持平，但軍事單位增長了 10%。雖然材料可用性仍然是一個挑戰，但我們在引擎和服務方面的輸出，我們正在使用我們的精益工具來幫助加速連續改進，這是我們今年的關鍵。

Fourth quarter margins were above 18%, slightly better than we expected, although down year-over-year. Higher volume and price were more than offset by negative mix, driven by increased commercial equipment shipments, continued investment to support the business growth and other cost pressures. While still net price/cost positive, we expect inflation will continue to be challenging in 2023.

第四季度利潤率高於 18%，略好於我們的預期，但同比有所下降。商業設備出貨量增加、為支持業務增長而進行的持續投資以及其他成本壓力所推動的負面組合抵消了更高的銷量和價格。雖然淨價格/成本仍為正，但我們預計 2023 年通脹將繼續面臨挑戰。

For the year, revenue was up 23%, driven by commercial sales with internal shop visits up over 20%. Profitability and cash were solid. Margins were 18.3%, up 440 basis points year-over-year. Services growth and positive price/cost more than offset the impact of increased investments and negative engine mix from higher LEAP deliveries. Free cash flow of $4.9 billion was driven by earnings and working capital. As we shared last quarter, total in-year AD&A flow came in close to 0 versus last year, $0.5 billion of pressure.

這一年，收入增長了 23%，這主要受商業銷售的推動，內部商店訪問量增長了 20% 以上。盈利能力和現金穩健。利潤率為 18.3%，同比增長 440 個基點。服務增長和積極的價格/成本抵消了投資增加和 LEAP 交付量增加帶來的負面引擎組合的影響。 49 億美元的自由現金流是由收益和營運資金驅動的。正如我們上個季度所分享的那樣，與去年相比，年內 AD&A 總流量接近 0，壓力為 5 億美元。

Looking ahead today, GE and CFM departures are close to 90% of '19 levels, and we expect to be back to '19 levels later this year. In '23, internal shop visits are expected to grow about 20% and external spare part sales are expected to increase. With Commercial Engines growing at about 20% and services at high teens to about 20%, plus Military growing at a high single-digit rate, we expect total Aerospace revenue to be in the mid- to high teens. And we expect LEAP engine deliveries to grow about 50% in '23. We also expect to deliver profit of $5.3 billion to $5.7 billion and higher free cash flow. Aligned to current airframe or aircraft delivery schedules, AD&A is expected to be about $0.5 billion outflow in 2023.

展望今天，GE 和 CFM 的離職率接近 19 年水平的 90%，我們預計今年晚些時候將回到 19 年的水平。 23 年，內部商店訪問量預計增長 20% 左右，外部備件銷售額預計增加。隨著商業發動機增長約 20%，服務增長約 20%，加上軍事以高個位數的速度增長，我們預計航空航天總收入將處於中高水平。我們預計 23 年 LEAP 發動機交付量將增長約 50%。我們還預計將實現 53 億美元至 57 億美元的利潤和更高的自由現金流。根據當前的機身或飛機交付時間表，AD&A 預計在 2023 年流出約 5 億美元。

We're laser-focused on supporting our air framers, airlines and lessors as they ramp post pandemic. Today, that means providing stability and predictability for our customers, keeping our current fleet flying and growing our new fleet, all the while continuing to invest in technologies that will define the future of flight.

我們專注於支持我們的飛機製造商、航空公司和出租人，因為他們在大流行後迅速發展。今天，這意味著為我們的客戶提供穩定性和可預測性，保持我們現有機隊的飛行並發展我們的新機隊，同時繼續投資於定義飛行未來的技術。

Notably, we're encouraged by the momentum at Military with our next-generation technology, including the XA100 engine for the F-35. The XA100 offers cutting-edge capabilities needed to ensure continued U.S. air superiority. The adaptive engine transition program received a strong show of support recently from nearly 50 bipartisan members of Congress who wrote in support of continuing the program, which includes our engine, with $286 million of funding included in the 2023 Omnibus Appropriations Bill.

值得注意的是，我們對下一代技術（包括用於 F-35 的 XA100 發動機）在軍事領域的發展勢頭感到鼓舞。 XA100 提供確保美國持續空中優勢所需的尖端功能。自適應引擎過渡計劃最近得到了近 50 名兩黨國會議員的強烈支持，他們寫信支持繼續執行該計劃，其中包括我們的引擎，2023 年綜合撥款法案中包含 2.86 億美元的資金。

Overall, GE Aerospace is an exceptional franchise with a bright future as a stand-alone industry leader.

總的來說，GE Aerospace 是一家卓越的特許經營公司，作為獨立的行業領導者有著光明的未來。

Turning to the GE Vernova portfolio. Power delivered a solid performance this year, and we're making real progress running a similar strategy at Renewables. While the demand drop due to the PTC lapse significantly impacted our Renewables results in 2022, the Inflation Reduction Act is a real game-changer for us and the industry going forward.

轉向 GE Vernova 產品組合。電力公司今年表現出色，我們在可再生能源領域採用類似戰略取得了真正的進展。雖然 PTC 失效導致的需求下降顯著影響了我們 2022 年的可再生能源業績，但《降低通貨膨脹法案》對我們和整個行業來說是一個真正的遊戲規則改變者。

In fact, we began to see a rebound in demand this quarter with Renewables orders up 7%. Onshore orders in North America more than doubled, a very encouraging sign. But unlocking the full potential of the IRA will hinge on how quickly the administration moves through implementation.

事實上，本季度我們開始看到需求反彈，可再生能源訂單增長了 7%。北美在岸訂單增加了一倍多，這是一個非常令人鼓舞的跡象。但釋放 IRA 的全部潛力將取決於政府通過實施的速度。

Meanwhile, lower volumes and inflationary pressures continued to weigh on our performance. Fourth quarter revenue was down 13% due to onshore, and margins contracted as inflation and lower volumes offset pricing and productivity gains. Full year free cash flow declined over $0.5 billion due to lower earnings.

與此同時，銷量下降和通脹壓力繼續拖累我們的業績。由於在岸業務，第四季度收入下降了 13%，並且由於通貨膨脹和較低的銷量抵消了定價和生產率的提高，利潤率下降。由於收益下降，全年自由現金流下降超過 5 億美元。

So while we await clarity on the IRA rules, Scott and the team are controlling the controllable, taking action. And we saw progress in that regard this quarter.

因此，在我們等待 IRA 規則明朗化的同時，Scott 和團隊正在控制可控範圍，並採取行動。我們在本季度看到了這方面的進展。

Grid, a business that lost close to $400 million in 2021, was profitable for the first quarter since 2018, reflecting our restructuring and selectivity efforts. Orders also grew significantly.

Grid 是一家在 2021 年虧損近 4 億美元的企業，自 2018 年以來第一季度實現盈利，這反映了我們的重組和選擇性努力。訂單也大幅增長。

At onshore, we're executing a restructuring with our headcount decreasing almost 20% sequentially, which will deliver savings in 2023. Our strategic sourcing actions at onshore and our focus on reducing product variants will improve product costs despite continued inflationary pressures.

在陸上，我們正在執行重組，我們的員工人數連續減少近 20%，這將在 2023 年實現節省。儘管通脹壓力持續存在，我們在陸上的戰略採購行動和我們對減少產品變型的關注將改善產品成本。

Across the businesses, orders and sales pricing continue to improve with our selectivity strategy yielding a more profitable backlog and pipeline. Service orders and revenues, excluding repower, grew. There's certainly more work to do and the next 6 months will remain challenging, but we're acting with urgency. In 2023, we expect mid-single-digit growth, significantly better profit and flat to improving free cash flow.

在整個業務中，訂單和銷售定價繼續改善，我們的選擇性策略產生了更有利可圖的積壓訂單和管道。服務訂單和收入（不包括動力）均有所增長。當然還有更多工作要做，未來 6 個月仍將充滿挑戰，但我們正在緊急行動。 2023 年，我們預計將實現中個位數增長，利潤顯著提高，自由現金流持平至改善。

Taking it by the business. Onshore. We expect more than 50% orders growth in North America this year. And based on the orders we have in hand, we're confident of delivering over 2,000 units globally with North American volume more than doubling in the second half versus the first half of the year. We also expect a significant step-up in profit driven by lower warranty and related reserves, better price and restructuring benefits.

由企業承擔。在陸上。我們預計今年北美的訂單增長將超過 50%。根據我們手頭的訂單，我們有信心在下半年向全球交付 2,000 多台，北美銷量比上半年增加一倍以上。我們還預計，由於較低的保修和相關準備金、更好的價格和重組收益，利潤將大幅增加。

With this significant orders growth comes roughly $3 billion to $4 billion of cash down payments this year. This includes $0.5 billion of cash linked to large tech selects we've won which we expect to convert to orders later this year. These are strong customer commitments, but given the project size and complexity, timing could shift somewhat across quarters.

隨著訂單的顯著增長，今年大約有 30 億至 40 億美元的現金預付款。這包括與我們贏得的大型技術選擇相關的 5 億美元現金，我們預計將在今年晚些時候將其轉換為訂單。這些都是強有力的客戶承諾，但考慮到項目的規模和復雜性，時間安排可能會在幾個季度之間有所改變。

In offshore, we expect to more than double revenue from about $0.5 billion in 2022. However, our margins on the first tranche of Haliade-X projects will be challenging between typical new product margins and inflation, resulting in rising losses. Associated with the delivery growth and limited down payments, we also expect cash will be significantly pressured in 2023 in offshore, mostly a timing dynamic.

在海上，我們預計到 2022 年收入將從約 5 億美元增加一倍以上。但是，我們在 Haliade-X 項目的第一批利潤率將在典型的新產品利潤率和通貨膨脹之間面臨挑戰，從而導致虧損增加。與交付增長和有限的預付款相關，我們還預計 2023 年離岸現金將承受巨大壓力，這主要是時間動態。

And at grid, given our robust orders growth, we expect continued growth. The actions we've taken on price are expected to offset inflation pressures, and we continue to make progress, including our small -- our smaller cost structure and productivity. Taken together, this will enable grid to deliver a modestly profitable year in 2023.

在電網方面，鑑於我們強勁的訂單增長，我們預計會持續增長。我們在價格方面採取的行動有望抵消通脹壓力，我們將繼續取得進展，包括我們較小的成本結構和生產力。總而言之，這將使電網在 2023 年實現適度盈利。

Overall, I'm confident we're seeing operating improvements throughout the year in Renewables. And key external catalysts, like the IRA, will help improve our longer-term economic profile here.

總的來說，我相信我們會在全年看到可再生能源的運營改善。關鍵的外部催化劑，如愛爾蘭共和軍，將有助於改善我們這裡的長期經濟狀況。

Moving to Power. We've significantly improved Power, which is demonstrated by our continued profit and cash growth. We're well positioned for continued services growth with our expanded HA fleet. To date, we've now shipped 110 HAs with roughly 80 units COD, providing a reliable source of cash growth in the future as our highest utilization assets in the fleet.

走向權力。我們顯著提高了 Power，這從我們持續的利潤和現金增長中可以看出。憑藉我們擴大的 HA 機隊，我們為持續的服務增長做好了準備。迄今為止，我們已經交付了 110 台 HA，大約 80 台 COD，作為我們機隊中利用率最高的資產，為未來的現金增長提供了可靠的來源。

Looking at the quarter, Power demand remained robust, orders grew in all businesses and revenue was up double digits, largely driven by continued aeroderivative momentum at gas power. Services were also solid with orders and revenue up again driven by gas transactional services. Margins expanded over 700 basis points driven by significant gas volume, favorable price/cost and productivity gains. Similar to Aerospace, we expect inflation will remain challenging through 2023.

縱觀本季度，電力需求依然強勁，所有業務的訂單都在增長，收入增長了兩位數，這在很大程度上是由燃氣動力持續的航改動力推動的。服務也很穩固，訂單和收入再次受到天然氣交易服務的推動。在大量天然氣、有利的價格/成本和生產率提高的推動下，利潤率擴大了 700 多個基點。與航空航天類似，我們預計到 2023 年通貨膨脹仍將充滿挑戰。

Moving to the full year, orders were up double digits. But importantly, we're not taking our eye off selectivity with disciplined underwriting. In line with our outlook, revenue was up low single digits, led by services. Margins expanded 300 basis points, enabling Power to achieve high single-digit margin for the year. And our free cash flow improved significantly across both gas and steam. At gas service, billings were strong as fleet utilization grew low single digits.

轉向全年，訂單增長了兩位數。但重要的是，我們並沒有因為有紀律的承銷而將注意力從選擇性上移開。與我們的展望一致，在服務的帶動下，收入增長了低個位數。利潤率擴大了 300 個基點，使 Power 在當年實現了高個位數的利潤率。我們的自由現金流在天然氣和蒸汽方面都有顯著改善。在天然氣服務方面，由於車隊利用率增長低個位數，因此賬單強勁。

Looking to 2023 for Power. We expect low single-digit revenue growth driven by gas power services. Equipment revenue will grow as we deliver more HAs despite the new build wind down at steam. And we (technical difficulty) year-over-year. At gas, both equipment and services volume as well as productivity gains and price should help offset rising inflation pressure. We expect lower free cash flow year-over-year. Continued earnings growth and strong services collections are offset by disbursements, but we expect free cash flow conversion to remain solid.

展望 2023 年的電力。我們預計天然氣發電服務將推動低個位數的收入增長。儘管新建築正在停產，但隨著我們交付更多的 HA，設備收入將增長。而我們（技術難度）年復一年。在天然氣方面，設備和服務量以及生產率提高和價格應有助於抵消不斷上升的通脹壓力。我們預計自由現金流量同比下降。持續的盈利增長和強勁的服務收入被支出所抵消，但我們預計自由現金流轉換將保持穩健。

Stepping back. Our existing technologies in the GE Vernova portfolio will play an important role in the energy transition. It's the strategic imperative to electrify and decarbonize the world, is the challenge that these businesses with their vast installed bases were made to meet.

退後一步。我們在 GE Vernova 產品組合中的現有技術將在能源轉型中發揮重要作用。使世界電氣化和脫碳是戰略要務，也是這些擁有龐大安裝基礎的企業要迎接的挑戰。

Let's turn now to the overall GE outlook for 2023. We're expecting organic revenue growth in the high single-digit range; $1.60 to $2 for adjusted EPS, which includes about $4.2 billion to $4.8 billion of adjusted profit; and a range of $3.4 billion to $4.2 billion for free cash flow.

現在讓我們來看看通用電氣 2023 年的整體展望。我們預計有機收入將在高個位數範圍內增長；調整後每股收益為 1.60 至 2 美元，其中包括約 42 億美元至 48 億美元的調整後利潤；自由現金流在 34 億美元至 42 億美元之間。

Underpinning this outlook is a higher services concentration in our portfolio as well as our confidence in the strength of GE Aerospace as the worldwide commercial aviation industry, airlines and airframers alike, continues its post-pandemic recovery. We also anticipate Military revenue growth, thus yielding significant profit growth for GE Aerospace in '23.

支撐這一前景的是我們投資組合中更高的服務集中度，以及我們對通用電氣航空航天公司實力的信心，因為全球商業航空業、航空公司和飛機製造商都在繼續其大流行後的複蘇。我們還預計軍事收入會增長，從而在 23 年為 GE Aerospace 帶來顯著的利潤增長。

For GE Vernova, we expect low to mid-single-digit growth and profit of negative $600 million to negative $200 million, including improvement at both businesses. On cash, we expect flat to slight improvement. This is driven largely by better profitability and planned down payments in onshore, where timing could shift across quarters with some offset from offshore increasing deliveries.

對於 GE Vernova，我們預計中低個位數增長和負 6 億美元至負 2 億美元的利潤，包括兩個業務的改善。在現金方面，我們預計持平至略有改善。這主要是由於更好的盈利能力和計劃中的陸上預付款，其中時間可能會跨季度轉移，並在一定程度上抵消離岸交付量的增加。

Across GE, we expect continued operational improvements to deliver higher earnings and improved working capital management. In turn, this will help us drive higher free cash flow for GE in '23.

在整個 GE，我們預計持續的運營改進將帶來更高的收益和改進的營運資本管理。反過來，這將幫助我們在 23 年為 GE 帶來更高的自由現金流。

We're looking forward to sharing more during our March 9 Investor Conference at GE Aerospace in Cincinnati, by then hopefully, home of the Super Bowl champion Bengals, where you'll hear more detail from our leadership teams about both GE Aerospace and GE Vernova. Please come see us.

我們期待在 3 月 9 日於辛辛那提 GE 航空航天公司舉行的投資者大會上分享更多信息，希望屆時這裡是超級碗冠軍孟加拉虎隊的主場，屆時您將從我們的領導團隊那裡聽到有關 GE 航空航天公司和 GE Vernova 的更多詳細信息.請來看我們。

To close on Slide 8, I hope you see what I see: Strong results, a simpler story and an exciting future.

在幻燈片 8 上結束時，我希望您能看到我所看到的：強勁的結果、更簡單的故事和令人興奮的未來。

At GE Aerospace, continuous improvement is our mantra, and our results reflect our team, our technology and our portfolio's unique positioning as the industry's largest and youngest fleet. At GE Vernova, Power is delivering solid earnings and cash, while we're setting up Renewables to drive longer-term profitable growth.

在 GE 宇航，持續改進是我們的信條，我們的成果反映了我們的團隊、我們的技術和我們的產品組合作為業內最大和最年輕機隊的獨特定位。在 GE Vernova，Power 正在提供可觀的收益和現金，而我們正在建立可再生能源以推動長期盈利增長。

We're moving forward with our plans to launch 2 independent investment-grade industry leaders that are well positioned to create long-term growth as we shape the future of flight and lead the energy transition. And I'm confident that we'll unlock greater value for our customers and our shareholders in the year ahead.

我們正在推進我們的計劃，推出 2 個獨立的投資級行業領導者，這些領導者在我們塑造飛行的未來和引領能源轉型的過程中，能夠創造長期增長。我相信，我們將在未來一年為我們的客戶和股東創造更大的價值。

Now we're ready for questions. Steve?

現在我們準備好提問了。史蒂夫？

Thanks, Larry. (Operator Instructions) We ask that you please save any GE Healthcare questions until their earnings call next week. Liz, can you please open the line?

謝謝，拉里。 （操作員說明）我們要求您將任何 GE Healthcare 問題保存到下週的財報電話會議上。 lz，你能打開電話嗎？

(Operator Instructions) Our first question comes from Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs.

（操作員說明）我們的第一個問題來自高盛的 Joe Ritchie。

Congrats on executing the spin.

恭喜執行旋轉。

Thanks, Joe. Thank you.

謝謝，喬。謝謝你。

Yes. So my question is really going to be focused on this free cash flow bridge for 2023. And specifically on the segments, I'm curious. You talked about Aviation free cash flow being up versus '22. I know that you threw out the $500 million impact in AD&A, but did the rest of GE Aviation free cash flow grow consistently with earnings in 2023?

是的。所以我的問題真的會集中在這個 2023 年的自由現金流橋上。特別是在這些細分市場上，我很好奇。你談到航空自由現金流與 22 年相比有所上升。我知道你排除了 AD&A 的 5 億美元影響，但 GE 航空公司其餘的自由現金流是否與 2023 年的收益保持一致增長？

And then my kind of second question on the segments is just around Renewables. And what are you anticipating for the large payments in the second half of the year, and what impact that has to the free cash flow in 2023?

然後我關於細分市場的第二個問題是關於可再生能源的。您對下半年的大筆付款有何期待，這對 2023 年的自由現金流有何影響？

Okay, Joe. So a couple of questions. So let me start with the free cash flow guide for 2023 for the whole company. So if we look at our 2022 numbers that we just printed $4.8 billion. New jumping house point, excluding Healthcare, is $3.1 billion. So basically, we are assuming that, the midpoint of our guide, we will improve free cash flow with about $700 million.

好的，喬。所以有幾個問題。因此，讓我從整個公司 2023 年的自由現金流量指南開始。因此，如果我們看看 2022 年的數字，我們剛剛印刷了 48 億美元。不包括醫療保健在內的新跳躍點為 31 億美元。所以基本上，我們假設，我們指南的中點，我們將以大約 7 億美元來改善自由現金流。

And the majority of that comes from growing of profit. Midpoint is about $1.3 billion of improvement in ops profit. You add to that lower interest, a couple of hundred million of tailwinds and then some working capital improvement despite the high single-digit growth.

其中大部分來自利潤的增長。中點是運營利潤提高約 13 億美元。除了較低的利息外，還有幾億美元的順風，然後儘管實現了高個位數的增長，但營運資本有所改善。

A couple of things that are partially offsetting that. The headwinds for AD&A that you mentioned, about $0.5 billion. We have a restructuring cash out as well as higher cash tax since we made more money. So taking all together, we expect earnings to be the biggest driver of the improvement. We'll continue to benefit from our working capital management. And overall, that's what leads us to have confidence in our total free cash flow guide.

有幾件事部分抵消了這一點。你提到的 AD&A 的逆風，大約 5 億美元。由於我們賺了更多錢，我們有重組現金支出以及更高的現金稅。因此，綜上所述，我們預計收益將成為改善的最大推動力。我們將繼續受益於我們的營運資金管理。總的來說，這就是讓我們對我們的總自由現金流量指南充滿信心的原因。

You also asked about the segments specifically, and on Aerospace. So if you look at Aerospace, clearly, the improvement in profit is a big driver in Aerospace improved free cash flow. When it comes to working capital, mind you, what Larry said about the really strong growth that we're expecting to see. So of course, working capital will be pressured, receivables and also partly inventory, from that kind of growth. But we do expect that the combination of profit growth, working capital management will more than offset the AD&A headwind of $0.5 billion. So we will improve cash also for Aerospace.

您還具體詢問了細分市場和航空航天領域。因此，如果你看看航空航天，顯然，利潤的提高是航空航天自由現金流改善的一個重要推動力。在談到營運資金時，請注意，拉里所說的我們期待看到的真正強勁的增長。因此，當然，營運資金、應收賬款和部分庫存都會因這種增長而受到壓力。但我們確實預計，利潤增長、營運資本管理的結合將足以抵消 5 億美元的 AD&A 逆風。因此，我們還將為航空航天增加現金。

And then if you look at the Vernova businesses. As Larry said, we basically expect it to be flat to slightly improving on cash as well. And here, you have Power would be slightly down while we expect Renewables to improve.

然後，如果你看看 Vernova 的業務。正如拉里所說，我們基本上預計現金也會持平或略有改善。在這裡，您的電力會略有下降，而我們預計可再生能源會有所改善。

Down payments, Joe, that you were asking about. I think we said in our formal remarks that, that should be in the $3 billion to $4 billion range. Some of those are for orders as they progress and orders to come, many of which we have been selected for. But again, the timing here, until the IRS finalizes the rules, the tax rules for developers, could have a little bit of movement, and that's what we were trying to flag in the formal remarks. So it will be back-loaded in that regard, but we'll have much greater linearity in Aerospace, as Carolina suggested.

喬，你問的首期付款。我想我們在正式發言中說過，這應該在 30 億到 40 億美元之間。其中一些是為了訂單的進展和訂單的到來，其中許多我們已經被選中。但同樣，這裡的時間，直到美國國稅局最終確定規則，開發商的稅收規則，可能會有一點變化，這就是我們試圖在正式評論中指出的。所以它會在這方面進行反向加載，但正如 Carolina 所建議的那樣，我們將在航空航天領域擁有更大的線性度。

Our next question comes from Josh Pokrzywinski with Morgan Stanley.

我們的下一個問題來自摩根士丹利的 Josh Pokrzywinski。

Larry, just wanted to follow up here on Renewables. It looks like there's some op profit improvement, not maybe all the way back to what folks were perhaps expecting. Just wondering if you could parse what's getting better, like selectivity or grid or price/cost, versus what's still kind of a more material headwind this year?

拉里，只是想在這裡跟進可再生能源。看起來運營利潤有所改善，但可能不會一直回到人們可能期望的水平。只是想知道您是否可以分析什麼正在變得更好，比如選擇性或網格或價格/成本，而今年仍然是一種更重要的逆風？

No, I think if you look at Renewables, we think profitability will be significantly better. If I break it down. At grid, we're really encouraged by the improvements the team has put in place. I think that's what yielded the profitable quarter here in the fourth, but more importantly, sets them up to be profitable in 2023, right? This is a business that people had given up on a few years ago. And particularly in Europe, we've seen tremendous interest really across the grid portfolio in line with this accelerated electrification that's underway. So I think that's all good and they begin to contribute in the new year.

不，我認為如果你看看可再生能源，我們認為盈利能力會好得多。如果我分解它。在 Grid，我們對團隊所做的改進感到非常鼓舞。我認為這就是第四季度盈利的原因，但更重要的是，這讓他們在 2023 年實現盈利，對吧？這是人們幾年前放棄的業務。尤其是在歐洲，隨著正在進行的加速電氣化，我們已經看到整個電網組合的巨大興趣。所以我認為這一切都很好，他們開始在新的一年做出貢獻。

I think from an onshore perspective, a little to Joe's question a moment ago on cash, the same thing applies to profitability. I think the first half is going to continue to be challenged much in the way that 2022 has. But as we work our way through the year, we would expect to see volume. We'll see higher-quality volume as a function of that selectivity. And we can really see better pricing in our order book compared to our revenues, in our tech selects compared to our orders and in our pipeline. We've talked about that before. I think that really is a sign that the industry is transitioning in anticipation of the IRA to one where volumes may be -- capacity may be challenged by demand, and that will be good overall.

我認為從在岸的角度來看，對於喬剛才關於現金的問題，同樣的事情也適用於盈利能力。我認為上半年將繼續像 2022 年那樣面臨挑戰。但隨著我們全年的努力，我們預計會看到銷量。我們將看到更高質量的音量作為該選擇性的函數。與我們的收入相比，我們真的可以在我們的訂單簿中看到更好的定價，與我們的訂單和我們的管道相比，我們的技術選擇。我們之前談過這個。我認為這確實是一個跡象，表明該行業正在從 IRA 的預期中過渡到一個可能存在容量的行業——產能可能受到需求的挑戰，這總體上是好的。

But there's a whole host of things that we need to do operationally. I think we talked in the last call about improving our producibility and the robustness of what we do in manufacturing. At the same time, we have taken some structural cost actions, really the only place in GE where that's the case with nearly 2,000 of our associates in transition here as we look to get the Renewables business, onshore in particular, in better shape for what lies ahead.

但是我們需要在操作上做很多事情。我想我們在上次電話會議中談到了提高我們的生產能力和我們在製造業中所做工作的穩健性。與此同時，我們已經採取了一些結構性成本行動，這實際上是 GE 中唯一一個有近 2,000 名員工正在轉型的地方，因為我們希望讓可再生能源業務，尤其是陸上業務，更好地適應什麼擺在面前。

And then for offshore. Because we aren't going to double revenue, we're going to need to recognize the losses that go with the Haliade-X early on here.

然後是離岸。因為我們不會使收入翻倍，所以我們需要儘早認識到 Haliade-X 帶來的損失。

So grid, much better. Onshore wind in transition. A bit of a timing dynamic with offshore. And you put that together, and that's really what gives you the Renewables guide for '23.

所以網格，好多了。轉型中的陸上風電。離岸有點時間動態。你把它們放在一起，這就是為你提供 23 年可再生能源指南的真正原因。

Our next question comes from Julian Mitchell with Barclays.

我們的下一個問題來自巴克萊銀行的 Julian Mitchell。

Just wanted to ask about cash flow sort of through the year, and also the uses of your cash. That's something maybe refreshing to talk about for the first time in a few years.

只是想問一下全年的現金流量，以及您的現金用途。幾年來第一次談論這件事可能會讓人耳目一新。

But on the cash flow through the year, when we think about the seasonality, I think you had sort of free cash was minus $900 million first quarter a year ago. How do you see the sort of the cash flow moving this year? It sounds like renewables may be a very big headwind in the first half and then swings in the second. So any color on the GE firm-wide free cash as we go through the year?

但是關於全年的現金流，當我們考慮季節性時，我認為你的自由現金在一年前的第一季度是負 9 億美元。您如何看待今年的現金流變化？聽起來可再生能源在上半年可能是一個非常大的逆風，然後在下半年開始波動。那麼，在我們度過這一年的時候，通用電氣公司範圍內的自由現金有什麼顏色嗎？

And then maybe more for Larry, sort of thoughts on capital deployment. There is starting to be some optionality now for GE partly because of the improving cash flow. It's mostly been debt reduction understandably for a few years. But maybe just help us understand your priorities on cash use.

然後對於拉里來說，可能更多的是關於資本部署的一些想法。通用電氣現在開始有一些選擇權，部分原因是現金流有所改善。幾年來，主要是減少債務，這是可以理解的。但也許只是幫助我們了解您對現金使用的優先考慮。

Julian, let me take the first part of that question on seasonality and on how we see that happening through the year in 2023. Maybe let me just start with the first quarter. We are expecting an EPS of $0.10 to $0.15 in the first quarter, so actually better linearity than we've seen before in 2022.

朱利安，讓我回答這個問題的第一部分，即季節性以及我們如何看待 2023 年全年發生的情況。也許讓我從第一季度開始。我們預計第一季度的每股收益為 0.10 美元至 0.15 美元，因此實際上線性度比我們在 2022 年之前看到的要好。

On cash, we still expect cash to be negative also in the first quarter. The new jumping off point is a negative $1.2 billion. So we expect it to be significantly better than that, but still negative as is typical for our seasonality.

在現金方面，我們仍然預計第一季度現金也將為負數。新的起點是負 12 億美元。因此，我們預計它會比這好得多，但仍然是我們季節性的典型表現。

And seasonality, in general, I would say we don't expect material changes to our seasonality. We are still sort of heavy second half loaded, both on revenue and profit and on cash, actually even more back-end loaded now that we are excluding Healthcare.

和季節性，一般來說，我會說我們不希望我們的季節性發生重大變化。在收入、利潤和現金方面，我們下半年的負荷仍然很重，實際上，由於我們不包括醫療保健，後端負荷甚至更多。

So expect lower volume in the first half and ramping in the second half. Sort of Renewables sequentially growing through the year, and for Aerospace sequentially growing through the year. Renewables, significant sort of first half to second half ramp. And Power, more the typical outage seasonality, where you'd see sort of large 2Q and even larger 4Q, and we also have the equipment deliveries in the second half.

因此，預計上半年銷量下降，下半年銷量上升。可再生能源按年順序增長，航空航天按年順序增長。可再生能源，上半年到下半年的增長速度非常快。而電力，更典型的停電季節性，你會看到第二季度甚至更大的第四季度，我們也有下半年的設備交付。

But I would finish by saying that improving operational linearity is a key priority for us, and clearly more to do.

但我最後要說的是，提高運營線性度是我們的首要任務，而且顯然還有更多工作要做。

Julian, I would say with respect to capital allocation, you're right. The boardroom conversations are fundamentally different than they were just a few years ago, right? We've now reduced our debt load by $100 billion. Really pleased with the way Healthcare has spun and has traded here. You can look at that effectively as a $30 billion dividend to shareholders.

朱利安，我想說關於資本配置，你是對的。董事會的談話與幾年前根本不同，對吧？我們現在已經減少了 1000 億美元的債務負擔。對 Healthcare 在這裡開展和交易的方式感到非常滿意。您可以將其視為向股東派發的 300 億美元股息。

So we have a lot of options. And I would say all options are on the table. However, job 1 remains: The completion of what we announced, the transformation back in November of '21, right? We want to make sure more than anything that we are setting up both Aerospace and Vernova in the way that we described them. So as we work through a number of, if you will, more tactical considerations, that overarching strategic objective will continue to be foremost in mind.

所以我們有很多選擇。我會說所有選項都擺在桌面上。然而，工作 1 仍然存在：我們宣布的完成，21 年 11 月的轉型，對吧？我們最想確保的是，我們正在按照我們描述的方式設置 Aerospace 和 Vernova。因此，當我們通過一些（如果你願意的話）更多的戰術考慮時，這個總體戰略目標將繼續放在首位。

But no doubt about it, it's a different conversation and it's a much more enjoyable conversation to have than where we were back in '18 and '19.

但毫無疑問，這是一次不同的談話，而且比我們在 18 年和 19 年的談話更愉快。

Our next question comes from Andrew Obin with Bank of America.

我們的下一個問題來自美國銀行的 Andrew Obin。

Just a couple of questions, I think, on Vernova. First, I think there's a lot of sort of talk in the industry about -- on wind to structurally change the contract, right, because overall industry is just not in particularly good shape.

我想，關於 Vernova，只有幾個問題。首先，我認為業內有很多關於風力結構性改變合同的討論，對吧，因為整個行業的狀況並不是特別好。

So question one, where are we in conversations with large customers who seem to want more capacity, yet sort of the contract terms are not really helping the industry make any money? Where are we in structurally renegotiating the contract structure?

那麼問題一，我們在哪裡與似乎想要更多容量的大客戶進行對話，但合同條款並沒有真正幫助該行業賺錢？我們在結構上重新談判合同結構在哪裡？

And I had the second question just on Power overall, more traditional Power. But focus is on profit growth, not revenue growth. What are the key levers you will focus in '23? Guidance seems to suggest modest margin expansion. Are there any headwinds in gas and services that you're facing in '23?

我的第二個問題只是關於 Power overall，更傳統的 Power。但重點是利潤增長，而不是收入增長。您將在 23 年關注哪些關鍵槓桿？指引似乎暗示利潤率適度擴張。你在 23 年面臨的天然氣和服務方面有什麼不利因素嗎？

Andrew, I'll take the first part of that. Carolina perhaps can jump in on the second part. I would say that you see, I think, in the press, more discussion offshore than you do onshore relative to renegotiation, given that some of the PPAs that are in place in the wake of the inflation that has run over every part of our economy, makes those more challenging arrangements. We're just really starting in our offshore business. So we see a little bit of that, but frankly, not a lot given our relatively small position.

安德魯，我將負責第一部分。卡羅萊納也許可以參與第二部分。我想說的是，我認為，你在媒體上看到的關於重新談判的離岸討論比在岸討論更多，因為在通貨膨脹席捲我們經濟的各個部分之後，一些購電協議已經到位，使那些更具挑戰性的安排。我們的離岸業務才真正開始。所以我們看到了一點點，但坦率地說，鑑於我們相對較小的頭寸，並不多。

I think the way you see those dynamics playing out for us, again, in the wake of the IRA in particular here in the U.S., is that customers really want what we refer to as workhorse products. I think the technical specmanship, the arms race, is a thing that is quickly -- a dynamic that's quickly fading here. And customers want to make sure that they know they can get units, onshore in particular, over the next several years that they can count on, both in terms of performance and delivery.

我認為，在 IRA 之後，尤其是在美國，您再次看到這些動態對我們產生影響的方式是，客戶真的想要我們所說的主力產品。我認為技術規範、軍備競賽是一件很快的事情——一種正在迅速消失的動態。客戶希望確保他們知道他們可以在未來幾年內獲得他們可以信賴的單位，特別是陸上單位，無論是在性能還是交付方面。

And I think that, in turn, is leading not to renegotiations. That's not the nature of the business. But as we look at new business, right, the reason we're seeing better pricing. I think that the industry is going to need to work through that so that there will be a new equilibrium. The carrots offered by the IRA are incredibly helpful in that regard, at least we anticipate that they will be once the IRS rules are finalized. And that, in turn, is why I think you'll see us step up in volume over the next several years and presumably convert these better as-sold price levels into real margins and real cash.

我認為，這反過來又不會導致重新談判。這不是業務的本質。但是當我們著眼於新業務時，對的，這就是我們看到更好定價的原因。我認為該行業將需要解決這個問題，以便達到新的平衡。 IRA 提供的胡蘿蔔在這方面非常有幫助，至少我們預計一旦 IRS 規則最終確定，它們就會有用。反過來，這就是為什麼我認為你會看到我們在未來幾年內增加銷量，並可能將這些更好的售出價格水平轉化為實際利潤和實際現金。

From the Power, I have to just start by saying, looking at where we landed the year and what the team delivered, $1.2 billion of profit and 7.5% of op margin, really getting to high single digits, that's quite an achievement. And building on that for 2023, for Power, we have a couple of positives.

從 Power 開始，我必須首先說，看看我們今年的成就和團隊交付的成果，12 億美元的利潤和 7.5% 的運營利潤率，真的達到了很高的個位數，這是一項了不起的成就。在 2023 年的基礎上，對於 Power，我們有幾個積極因素。

We have more CSA outages. We talked about '22 being a low CSA outage year, '23 will be higher CSA outage year, so that's good. We also have aeroderivatives growing. But we do expect to have a tough mix equation with equipment deliveries as well as inflation.

我們有更多的 CSA 中斷。我們談到 '22 年是 CSA 中斷率較低的年份，'23 年是 CSA 中斷率較高的年份，這很好。我們也有航空衍生品在增長。但我們確實希望在設備交付和通貨膨脹方面有一個艱難的組合方程式。

So price/cost for Power, having had a big price impact in 2022, when you lap that in 2023, being pressured by the inflation coming through in the P&L being such a long-cycle business. So overall, we expect earnings growth; and on the cash side, also strong services collections; but offset by distribution. So down slightly on the cash side, but still a very high cash conversion number.

因此，Power 的價格/成本在 2022 年產生了巨大的價格影響，當你在 2023 年將其打壓時，由於 P&L 中的通貨膨脹是一項如此長周期的業務，因此受到壓力。因此，總體而言，我們預計收益會增長；在現金方面，還有強大的服務收款；但被分配抵消了。所以在現金方面略有下降，但現金轉換數字仍然很高。

Our next question comes from Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research.

我們的下一個問題來自 Wolfe Research 的 Nigel Coe。

Can you hear me?

你能聽到我嗎？

We can. Go ahead, Nigel.

我們可以。去吧，奈傑爾。

Just went -- my line just went dead there. First of all, thanks for all the details. We've covered a lot of ground so far. I did want to go back to the offshore losses and cash outflow in '23. Just wondering, how do you see that curve developing? I don't know if you want to quantify it in '23 in terms of the headwinds it's facing. But how do you see that progressing in '24 to '25? And maybe just given the magnitude of the losses in '23 for Renewables in total, are we still confident in the bridge back to '24 profit?

剛剛去了——我的線路就在那裡死了。首先，感謝您提供所有詳細信息。到目前為止，我們已經涵蓋了很多內容。我確實想回到 23 年的離岸虧損和現金流出。只是想知道，你如何看待這條曲線的發展？我不知道你是否想根據它面臨的逆風在 23 年對其進行量化。但是你如何看待 24 到 25 年的進展？也許僅僅考慮到 23 年可再生能源的總損失規模，我們是否仍然對恢復 24 年利潤的橋樑充滿信心？

Nigel, I don't know if we got all of that. Let me speak to the offshore dynamic. I think what we're going to see in '23 is pressure. We talked a little bit earlier about the doubling of revenue, the dynamics with the Haliade-X being new and how that rev rec will lead to op profit pressure.

奈傑爾，我不知道我們是否了解了所有這些。讓我談談離岸動態。我認為我們將在 23 年看到的是壓力。我們早些時候談到了收入翻倍、Haliade-X 的動態以及 rev rec 將如何導致營業利潤壓力。

From a cash dynamic, we'll also see disbursements as those projects move forward. We should see some milestone payments, some of which will be back-end loaded as well, and they too have a little bit of timing variability around them. We need to execute in order to see that in '23 as opposed to '24.

從現金動態來看，隨著這些項目的推進，我們還將看到支出。我們應該會看到一些里程碑付款，其中一些也將在後端加載，它們也有一些時間上的可變性。我們需要執行才能在 23 年而不是 24 年看到這一點。

But as we look forward, I think what we've gotten from customers is a lot of good feedback relative to where we go next with the evolution of the Haliade-X. And that's where our product teams and our engineering teams are focused. I think the timing of when we see the next tranche of orders is such that it's going to be potentially more a '24 than a late '23 dynamic. And that, too, will create some of that pressure that is not atypical for a business that is effectively in startup mode.

但當我們展望未來時，我認為我們從客戶那裡得到的是很多關於 Haliade-X 下一步發展方向的良好反饋。這就是我們的產品團隊和工程團隊關注的重點。我認為我們看到下一批訂單的時間是這樣的，它可能更像是 24 年而不是 23 年末的動態。而且，這也將產生一些壓力，這對於有效處於啟動模式的企業來說並不常見。

I wish it were otherwise, but again, I think given what we're seeing in grid and what we should see in onshore, once we have clarity with the IRA, that will help buffet us in many respects. But when you look at Vernova overall, for that free cash flat to slightly improving guide, that's really what we're referring to.

我希望情況並非如此，但我再次認為，鑑於我們在電網中看到的以及我們應該在陸上看到的，一旦我們對 IRA 有了清晰的了解，這將在許多方面幫助我們。但是當你從整體上看 Vernova 時，對於自由現金持平到略有改善的指南，這正是我們所指的。

I think with respect to (inaudible), really no change in expectation, right? Again, if we get the volume that I think everyone anticipates coming here in the North American market, our best market, where we're seeing healthier pricing, coupled with better execution from a manufacturing, from a cost perspective; grid being profitable; and onshore -- or offshore rather, coming along, we should do that in '24. We need to do that next year.

我認為關於（聽不清），預期真的沒有變化，對嗎？再一次，如果我們得到我認為每個人都期望在北美市場到來的數量，我們最好的市場，從成本的角度來看，我們看到更健康的定價，加上更好的製造執行；電網盈利；和陸上 - 或者更確切地說是海上，我們應該在 24 年做到這一點。我們需要在明年這樣做。

And when you see that cash -- that profit will then turn into cash, and then also the timing that we've talked about on working capital with the progress down payments, and more of that happening in 2024.

當你看到現金時——利潤將變成現金，然後還有我們談到的關於營運資金和進度預付款的時間，以及更多發生在 2024 年的時間。

Our next question comes from Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research Partners.

我們的下一個問題來自 Vertical Research Partners 的 Jeff Sprague。

Just sort of a multi-parter for me, if I could, I'm sorry. But just first on Renewables. I just do want to confirm that the free cash flow guide includes the expectation of this $3 billion to $4 billion of payments. But my larger question is really how we think about normal conversion going forward. Kind of the implied free cash flow conversion on the guide here today for '23 is 180%, 190%, 200% or so relative to net income, right? So how do we expect that to normalize over time?

對我來說只是一個多方合作夥伴，如果可以的話，我很抱歉。但首先是可再生能源。我只是想確認自由現金流指南包括對這 30 億至 40 億美元付款的預期。但我更大的問題是我們如何看待未來的正常轉換。相對於淨收入，今天 23 年指南中隱含的自由現金流轉換是 180%、190%、200% 左右，對吧？那麼我們如何期望它隨著時間的推移正常化呢？

And maybe you could provide just a little bit more color on that bridge from net income to free cash flow. Carolina, you started walking us through the delta a little bit, but still just kind of that absolute difference between the 2 would be interesting to bridge.

也許您可以在從淨收入到自由現金流的橋樑上提供更多顏色。卡羅萊納，你開始帶我們穿過三角洲一點點，但兩者之間的絕對差異仍然很有趣，可以彌合。

Sure, Jeff. So to start with, you are right. As Larry mentioned earlier this morning, in our guide for Renewables, we are expecting the $3 billion to $4 billion of payments in the free cash flow.

當然，傑夫。所以首先，你是對的。正如拉里今天早上早些時候提到的，在我們的可再生能源指南中，我們預計將有 30 億至 40 億美元的自由現金流支付。

When we talk about free cash flow conversion, and you know me, always talk about cash, but it's important to see where it comes from. So broadly speaking, we do expect to operate at more than 100% free cash flow conversion for the next few years. And why is that? A couple of different parts.

當我們談論自由現金流轉換時，你知道我，總是談論現金，但重要的是要了解它來自哪裡。所以從廣義上講，我們確實希望未來幾年的自由現金流轉換率超過 100%。那為什麼呢？幾個不同的部分。

First part, depreciation and amortization being higher than CapEx. And then I'll talk more about the working capital opportunities and timing as well. But with the depreciation and amortization, an important distinction. We expect depreciation to be largely in line with the CapEx to basically continue to invest. It's really the amortization that makes the difference. And now that we are excluding Healthcare, it's about $600 million of difference, and we would expect that to continue for years.

第一部分，折舊和攤銷高於資本支出。然後我將更多地討論營運資金機會和時機。但與折舊和攤銷有重要區別。我們預計折舊將在很大程度上與資本支出保持一致，以基本繼續投資。造成差異的真正原因是攤銷。現在我們排除了醫療保健，大約有 6 億美元的差異，我們預計這種情況會持續多年。

And on working capital, I would say there are a couple of different parts here. We do continue to see opportunities in improving our working capital management, especially after the year with the pressure that we've seen on the supply chain. So we see opportunities both to improve DSO and inventory turns, so on receivables and inventory. But also when we look at progress and contract assets, we expect both to be sources given where we are in the cycle.

關於營運資金，我想說這裡有幾個不同的部分。我們確實繼續看到改善營運資金管理的機會，尤其是在我們在供應鏈上看到壓力的一年之後。因此，我們看到了改善 DSO 和庫存周轉率的機會，例如應收賬款和庫存。但是，當我們查看進度和合同資產時，我們也希望兩者都是我們在周期中所處位置的來源。

Finally on AD&A. It's not working capital, but it's also a driver. And this year, we're expecting negative $0.5 billion of flow. And we've had a couple of years with positive flow from AD&A. So for the next couple of years, you can expect that to be pressured. But over time, we would also see that normalizing.

最後是 AD&A。它不是營運資金，但也是驅動力。今年，我們預計流量為負 5 億美元。我們已經有幾年來自 AD&A 的積極流量。所以在接下來的幾年裡，你可以預期它會受到壓力。但隨著時間的推移，我們也會看到正常化。

So overall, we do see opportunity to continue to improve, and we'll continue to work that. But for now, we're focused on growing earnings.

所以總的來說，我們確實看到了繼續改進的機會，我們將繼續努力。但就目前而言，我們專注於增加收入。

Our next question comes from the line of Chris Snyder with UBS.

我們的下一個問題來自瑞銀集團的 Chris Snyder。

I wanted to turn the conversation over to the Aerospace business, and specifically margins. And I understand the general flat-lining of margins in 2023, given the mix towards equipment. But I guess my question is, how long should we expect these mix headwinds to persist? Should we model margins higher coming out of 2023? And is there anything keeping the segment from returning to the 21% level achieved in 2018, 2019?

我想把話題轉到航空航天業務上，特別是利潤率。考慮到設備的組合，我理解 2023 年利潤率總體持平。但我想我的問題是，我們應該期望這些混合逆風持續多久？我們是否應該為 2023 年的利潤率建模？是否有什麼因素阻止該細分市場回到 2018 年、2019 年達到的 21% 水平？

Well, we're delighted to talk about Aerospace, so let me jump in. We had a very strong finish, as you saw margins up to nearly 19%. But Chris, as you know, this LEAP dynamic, and frankly, mix overall, will be a pressure for us in '23. I think as we look at margins next year -- rather this year, we would expect they would be flat, but the revenue growth will give us an opportunity to drive profit growth up, call it, 15%.

好吧，我們很高興談論航空航天，所以讓我開始吧。我們的成績非常出色，您看到利潤率高達近 19%。但是克里斯，正如你所知，這種 LEAP 動態，坦率地說，整體混合，將在 23 年給我們帶來壓力。我認為，當我們考慮明年的利潤率時——而不是今年，我們預計利潤率將持平，但收入增長將使我們有機會推動利潤增長，稱之為 15%。

I'd call out 2 things in '23. One, we do expect new units to grow more rapidly than services, that's a headwind in and of itself. And then the LEAP dynamic, both within services and within new units, will create the mix pressure that I suspect will remind folks about it through the course of the year.

我會在 23 年提出兩件事。第一，我們確實預計新單位的增長速度會比服務業更快，這本身就是一個逆風。然後 LEAP 動態，無論是在服務內部還是在新單位內部，都會產生混合壓力，我懷疑這會在一年中提醒人們注意它。

That said, I don't think we look at 18% as some sort of ceiling that we cannot pierce. We continue to have, I think, a lot of optimism about the LEAP program and the opportunity to improve margins both with new units and in the aftermarket as we go forward. Program is still very much a young one.

也就是說，我不認為我們將 18% 視為某種我們無法突破的上限。我認為，我們繼續對 LEAP 計劃持樂觀態度，並有機會在我們前進的過程中提高新設備和售後市場的利潤率。程序仍然非常年輕。

I think at the same time, we know price/cost hasn't been as challenging, but it has been challenging at Aerospace. We'll do a better job, I'm sure, as we go forward. And our Lean efforts, I think very much, is in its infancy. You'll see that both in the P&L and I think in the cash flow statement.

我認為與此同時，我們知道價格/成本並沒有那麼具有挑戰性，但它在航空航天領域一直具有挑戰性。我們會做得更好，我敢肯定，隨著我們的前進。我認為，我們的精益努力還處於起步階段。你會在損益表和我認為的現金流量表中看到這一點。

So I don't think this is necessarily a '23 and done dynamic. That said, our expectations would be, as we go forward, all in to continue to drive top line growth, profit dollar growth and margin expansion at Aerospace.

所以我認為這不一定是一個 23 歲的動態。也就是說，我們的預期是，隨著我們的前進，將全力以赴繼續推動航空航天的營收增長、利潤增長和利潤率擴張。

Liz, we have time for one more question.

Liz，我們還有時間再問一個問題。

Our next question comes from Deane Dray with RBC.

我們的下一個問題來自 RBC 的 Deane Dray。

First is a follow-up to Jeff's free cash flow question. Larry, when you joined GE, you talked about an initiative to kind of smooth out the free cash flow cadence for the year, trying to avoid that historical hockey stick. And look, there's still some seasonal impacts you can't get away from, like scheduled outages, that will impact the fourth quarter. But has there been progress? Is that still something that's an initiative here in terms of smoothing out free cash flow? And then I had a follow-up macro question.

首先是 Jeff 的自由現金流問題的後續行動。拉里，當你加入通用電氣時，你談到了一項旨在平滑今年自由現金流節奏的舉措，試圖避免歷史曲棍球棒。你看，仍然有一些季節性影響是你無法避免的，比如計劃中的停電，這將影響第四季度。但是有進展嗎？就平滑自由現金流而言，這仍然是這裡的一項舉措嗎？然後我有一個後續的宏觀問題。

Deane, I would say that there has been progress, there's still a lot more to do. And we talk about it, when you hear us use the word linearity, right, it gets back to Lean 101. We just want to make every hour of every day count, every day of every week, every week of every month. And there's still a bit of a dynamic, some of this is us, some of this is our customers, where we migrate toward quarter end, we migrate toward year-end.

迪恩，我想說已經取得了進展，還有很多工作要做。我們談論它，當你聽到我們使用線性這個詞時，對，它又回到了精益 101。我們只想讓每一天的每一小時、每一周的每一天、每一個月的每一周都變得有價值。而且仍然有一些動態，其中一些是我們，其中一些是我們的客戶，我們向季度末遷移，我們向年底遷移。

So I'm encouraged by the progress, and I think more people today understand how we can be more linear. If you look at just the reviews we've had the first 3 weeks of this year at Aerospace, right? We're looking at how we have started this year, how we've started this month vis-a-vis December, vis-a-vis January a year ago. Those are the sort of operating cadences which really help us in that regard. So pleased, but we're not done.

所以我對這些進步感到鼓舞，而且我認為今天有更多人了解我們如何才能更加線性。如果你只看我們今年前 3 週在航空航天公司的評論，對嗎？我們正在研究我們今年是如何開始的，我們是如何從這個月開始的，相對於 12 月，相對於一年前的 1 月。這些是在這方面真正幫助我們的操作節奏。很高興，但我們還沒有完成。

Appreciate that. And then just given the uncertain macro, can you cite any changes, any meaningful changes in demand indicators that you're looking at, whether it's quote activity, front log, anything that you could share here this morning?

感謝。然後，鑑於宏觀不確定性，您能否列舉任何變化，您正在查看的需求指標的任何有意義的變化，無論是報價活動、前端日誌，還是今天早上您可以在這里分享的任何內容？

Well, we're looking at just about everything that we can. Obviously, in Aerospace, we're watching not only departures, bookings and everything that can precede that. The only thing that we have seen, and this isn't a proprietary view, Deane, is obviously, freight has softened here as the short-cycle economy has done the same.

好吧，我們正在盡我們所能。顯然，在航空航天領域，我們不僅關注起飛、預訂以及在此之前發生的一切。我們所看到的唯一一件事，這不是專有觀點，Deane，很明顯，由於短週期經濟也是如此，這裡的運費已經走軟。

I think with respect to for Vernova, we look at utilization in gas and when we can see what's happening in real time. Even in Europe, we've been encouraged, I think, by the utilization of the gas fleet. That said, we don't want to suggest that we're immune. With 60% of revenue now in services tied to those real-time dynamics, we're watching carefully, but we wouldn't be guiding a high single-digit top line number this year if we weren't confident that our positioning both with the Aerospace recovery and the energy transition sets us up to do well here in '23.

我認為關於 Vernova，我們關注天然氣的利用率，以及我們何時可以實時看到正在發生的事情。我認為，即使在歐洲，天然氣車隊的使用也讓我們感到鼓舞。也就是說，我們不想暗示我們是免疫的。現在 60% 的收入來自與這些實時動態相關的服務，我們正在仔細觀察，但如果我們不相信我們的定位與航空航天復蘇和能源轉型讓我們在 23 年在這裡取得好成績。

Larry, any final comments?

拉里，最後有什麼意見嗎？

Steve, we've covered a lot of ground here this morning. I would just wrap up with the group, saying that 2023 really, I think, was a historic year -- or '22 rather, was a historic year for us. We finished very strongly. The plans -- the spins are advancing. We couldn't be, I think, more thrilled with how things have played out for Healthcare. But more importantly, we're excited about what lies ahead.

史蒂夫，今天早上我們已經討論了很多內容。我只想和小組一起結束，我認為 2023 年真的是歷史性的一年——或者更確切地說，22 年對我們來說是歷史性的一年。我們非常強勢地完成了比賽。計劃 - 旋轉正在推進。我認為，我們對 Healthcare 的發展感到無比興奮。但更重要的是，我們對未來感到興奮。

Certainly appreciate everybody taking the time today to join us, your interest in our company and your investment in GE. And again, we hope to see many of you in March in Cincinnati.

當然感謝大家今天抽出時間加入我們，感謝您對我們公司的興趣以及您對 GE 的投資。再一次，我們希望三月份在辛辛那提見到你們中的許多人。

Thank you. Thanks, everybody.

謝謝你。謝謝大家。

Thank you, ladies and gentlemen. This concludes today's conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.

謝謝你們，女士們，先生們。今天的會議到此結束。感謝您的參與。您現在可以斷開連接。